My prospect rankings package continues its rollout this week for ESPN+ subscribers with the AL Central and AL East team-by-team reports. My ranking of all 30 farm systems went up Monday, and the top 100 went up last week.

I also have a new review up at Paste, looking at the light engine-builder Gizmos, a family-friendly game that mimics the mechanics of longer and more complex titles

Keith Law: That’s my story and I am stuck with it. Klawchat.

Trevor: KLaw – Are you at all interested in the arbitration hearings? Seems hard to believe the highest paid AAV this offseason might end up being Arenado at $26M
Keith Law: Not really interested. The clubs have plenty of money, and most players in the process are underpaid relative to their on-field worth.

Dr. Bob: You voted for Fred McGriff. He’s a ways down the list in bWAR or JAWS. Since that’s only a starting point for the discussion, what tipped it for you?
Keith Law: I didn’t vote for McGriff. I would have considered him on an unlimited ballot, but he didn’t make my 10.

addoeh: Anyone have a worse off-season than the Cubs? One of their owners is clueless and also a racist. They handled the Russell situation about as poorly as possible. They claim to have to have no budget to sign anyone. And you ranked them as having the 29th ranked farm system.
Keith Law: Other than that, it’s been a great winter on the north side.

Tyler: Hey Keith! What do you see in Taylor Trammell that puts him in your top 15 prospects in baseball? Thanks
Keith Law: I wrote an entire capsule on him, and each of the top 100 prospects, and then 14 more in the just missed column.

Anik Patel: There have been a lot of disgruntled fans when it comes to the blue jays management since AA has left. Do you feel the fans are justified or are they not looking at the big picture
Keith Law: That’s too broad a question. What are their issues? The club operating on a mid-market payroll? That’s on ownership.

Bmosc: When do you ultimately think Machado & Harper sign? Think they’res starting to sweat it out a bit at this point?
Keith Law: I would guess one or both sign in the next two weeks. Some team has to blink and realize the calendar is working against them. If the Phillies get to Opening Day with all that payroll room, the hope of contention, some bad press right now around Kapler, and neither of those two free agents, that’s a failure.

@BleedCubBlue311: Is it actually possible this late in the off-season to implement the DH in the NL?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. If I were an NL GM without an existing in-house candidate and they changed the rules now, I’d be a little miffed.

JP: has your opinion on Curt Schilling’s HOF candidacy changes over the past few years (for obvious reasons)?
Keith Law: I had said in the past I thought I would vote for him, and then when I considered his case in total this winter, I chose not to vote for him, so yes, it has changed.

Adam: Other reputable prospect outlets have more than one person working on the team and overall lists. This allows them an opportunity to compare notes and, theoretically, shrinks their error margins. Being a one man crew, how do you go about managing the workload to make sure you have the most available information and process all that feedback as accurately as possible? Do you share your list with noted friends Longenhagen and Mayo for feedback before publishing?
Keith Law: I talk to a broad range of scouts and executives and share my list with many people across baseball front offices, going through multiple iterations to get feedback before publishing. I don’t think having more people would improve the process or that it shrinks anyone’s error margins; I’ve seen lists on ‘reputable’ sites with obvious mistakes in rankings.

Michael : hey keith. really nice job on the prospect stuff over the past couple of weeks. wanted to ask you a question in re: to the team farm rankings. you’ve got miami at the bottom, but wondering how much that ranking could shift if they picked up the #50 and #100 prospects on your list for JTR. do two propects like that push them up one spot or like ten spots? thanks!
Keith Law: Maybe one or two spots, not ten spots for sure.

kc: Why do you always seem down on A’s farm? They had some guys in top 100 but you still don’t like overall.. Thx
Keith Law: Because a farm system is a lot more than guys in the top 100. Their top ten and org report will run tomorrow, and even the end of their top ten fails off very quickly, and that’s with a couple of pitchers in that top ten still on the mend from TJ.

RubenaLowe: Hey Keith, love the chats……….are the mariners prospects so bad outside of the ‘big 3’ that it couldn’t propel them to the upper half? Gilbert anything more than a backend starter?
Keith Law: I’d like to see what Gilbert looks like this year, now that he’s fully recovered from mono and in a pro system. In 2017 he looked more like a future above-average starter. But yes, the rest of the system was among the worst in baseball before those trades.

Luigi: Now that you’ve had a few months to play with it, how are you liking your Uuni pizza oven? Does its outer surface get ungodly hot?
Keith Law: I love it but haven’t used it in a few weeks because it’s just too cold outside to run in and out while cooking. The outside is way too hot to touch (yes, I’ve nicked it, and it hurts).

Jimbo: Is it fair to be down on AA as a Braves fan? Donaldson has been his most exciting move with Gausman being bumped aside in the playoffs & the Kemp deal being a creative/boring money shuffle. The prospects that are drawing praise came from previous regimes, his team couldn’t/didn’t sign Stewart. I get that the offseason has been slow for the whole league but isn’t that more reason for a mid level team like the Braves to pounce? Please tell me I’m crazy for being disappointed with it all
Keith Law: OK, you’re crazy for being disappointed with it all.

CH: Any chance Machado or Harper sit out this year? I think we’re getting there.
Keith Law: Zero.

Anthony: What do you view the likelihood that someone like George Valera ends up in the top 100 next year? Possible candidate for a Kirilloff-esque jump?
Keith Law: You could say that about many seven-figure July 2nd signings who haven’t played yet.

JR: is crappy cheap beer fighting with crappy cheap corn syrup on social media the most American thing ever?
Keith Law: Yep. I thought those ads were so very dumb. I don’t avoid Miller Lite or Coors Lite or whatever beers they were after because of their ingredients. I avoid them because they taste terrible.

Kevin: Thoughts on the news about Gabe Kapler’s time in LA with the Dodgers?
Keith Law: Not sure we actually learned anything new here – the victim didn’t report the sexual assault to the team, so while I assume she told the truth, you can’t fault the team for failing to act on information they didn’t have. What was a mistake, and deserves scrutiny, was the failure to punish the players who furnished alcohol to an underage girl (to the point that she became ill). That alone should have triggered a suspension and a police report.

Geoff: What do you make of the Reds reportedly trying to move India?
Keith Law: I had a front office executive from another team tell me flat-out they were trying to move India, and then another source told me this week they aren’t trying to move him, but that he’s the best prospect the Reds will discuss in a major deal like a Kluber trade. Senzel, Trammell, and Greene are off the table, so if you’re looking to do something big with Cincinnati, India is the best prospect remaining.

Keith: Based on yours and the other prospect lists, Nick Madrigal is one of the most divergent prospects with ranges from 15 – ~113. Is it just a disagreement over power potential or is more going on here? What should we be paying attention to as an indicator to track which way his development is going?
Keith Law: No reputable list has him top 20; the highest I’ve seen is 41. He’s a very small second baseman without power projection. Tough to profile that guy as an above-average regular.

Claus: Does Luis Garcia (Nationals) have the tools and upside to jump into your top 100 list in 2020? If so, what would he need to improve on?
Keith Law: No, probably not.

Teddy Ballgame: how would you resolve the reliever parade problem in baseball? Do you even see it as a problem? Shoukd MLB be trying to get away from one out relievers because it’s a bad viewer experience? Do you miss pinch hitters like I
Keith Law: My issue with one-batter relievers is less aesthetics and more practical: If every pitching change means a commercial break, and MLB won’t shrink commercial breaks, then we need fewer pitching changes.

Troy: Dubon anything more than utility guy?
Keith Law: Could be a regular at 2b. I wouldn’t count him out.

Anik Patel: Why is Cleveland not going for another run into the playoffs? I understand the payroll is an issue but they have subtracted quite a bit from their lineup when they are clearly the strongest team in the AL central
Keith Law: I think they view the division as winnable without upgrades. I’m not sure I agree, and they should certainly be trying to upgrade their OF.

Mike: Given his injury history is it time to consider Jonathon Loaisiga a full time reliever or is it best to still try and develop him has a starter?
Keith Law: Still has the stuff to start, and they could use him in that role.

Allan: The Rockies have baffled me by not allowing McMahon or Tapia to consistently play in the majors. What is going on in the FO?
Keith Law: I’m afraid they’ll block Rodgers too. I don’t know what their philosophy is on these players.

JP: is Clint Frazier an everyday LF for a contending club? he can still fake CF?
Keith Law: He’s never been able to play CF.

javier: who needs harper/machado more: a team in a championship window now like the cubs, phillies or a team multiple pieces away like wsox/padres who normally dont have a shot for top FA competing with yankees/boston/etc
Keith Law: I think the Phillies have to get one of those two guys. Otherwise, what’s the point of clearing all that payroll?

FiveForFighting: If you are a team like the White Sox whose window of contention probably isn’t open yet, do you pursue a Harper or a Machado even if signing them to a long-term deal includes an opt-out after, say, Year 2 or Year 3?
Keith Law: If the AAV is low enough, sure. And they could contend this year with one of those guys, maybe adding a starter, and then one hopes some big leaps from young guys already in place. I said before they’re not that far off from contention.

Pat D: As a diehard Yankees fan, I keep an interest in prospects who they trade or lose. Luis Torrens’ situation fascinates me. Can he ever be a viable major leaguer? If not, what would you say ruined him more, the shoulder injury or being stashed on San Diego’s roster the whole season?
Keith Law: The shoulder injury. I’ve heard positive things from last year, to the point where he might resurface as at least a quality backup.

AGirlHasNoName: All that off-season stuff about the Cubs being true, would you still bet against them winning a tough division this year?
Keith Law: Are you asking me Cubs vs the NL Central field? I’ll take the field.

Nathan: You’re invited to a friend’s house. While there, they suggest a game of Monopoly while listening to Bruce Springsteen’s entire collection. Do you A) grit your teeth and bear it B) politely decline C) offer a different suggestion D) find a new friend
Keith Law: D.

Willie Dewit: Is it possible for you to hate a TV show, band, or movie but at the same time realize you are the minority and it’s probably pretty good? Game of Thones, U2 and Dances w Wolves for me.
Keith Law: Sure. Much of what we think of art is subjective. People whose opinions I respect think Breaking Bad is one of the greatest TV shows of all time. I don’t see the appeal.

Anik Patel: Thoughts on Auston Matthews signing a 5 year extension?
Keith Law: I had to look to see if the Rays had given Austin Meadows a five-year extension. Apparently this person plays hockey.

Santiago: Hey Keith, Orioles fan here. What are your thoughts on Grayson Rodriguez?
Keith Law: Orioles team report went up Tuesday and he is mentioned at lenght.

Jerry: Do you see Alvarez as another potential 1B bust for the Astros along the lines of Singleton and AJ Reed?
Keith Law: Singleton is in his own category of bust, for largely non-baseball reasons. Could Alvarez fail to hit MLB pitching like Reed has (in limited trials)? Sure. He’s not very athletic, 1b only and not good there, and I do have concerns about his future hit tool.

Erik: what’s the ETA on Wander Franco with the caveat the Rays will probably want him to “work on his defense”
Keith Law: I said in his capsule he could see the majors before he’s 20.

Mike: You read Ken Rosenthal’s latest on rule changes? Are you a fan of universal DH? Pitch clock? What about forcing pitchers to face 3 batters?
Keith Law: Yes on universal DH. Hard no on pitch clock. A two-batter minimum would probably serve the same purpose.

Geoff: T/F: Spending money is the new market inefficiency.
Keith Law: Kind of true. I believe too many teams are concerned with getting a “good deal” rather than considering whether a contract could provide sufficient ROI by the player getting you to the postseason, which gives a large revenue bump.

John: Tyler O’Neill and Dakota Hudson for Corey Kluber? Fair or Indians need more?
Keith Law: Cleveland would laugh at that.

Ben : Why is the HOF ballot limited to 10 votes? If you think a person is a HOF’er should it matter if there are 10 more qualified candidates?
Keith Law: Ask* the Hall of Fame. Their call, not the writers’. (*Typo fixed!)

EuanDewar: Do you enjoy Cormac McCarthy’s work and are there any authors in that vein you’d suggest to check out next?
Keith Law: Yes, I liked Blood Meridian and the Road (well, ‘liked’ might be the wrong word there) quite a bit. If you like his settings, you might read Lonesome Dove, but I think McCarthy’s gift is in exploring the darkest sides of human nature, which would point to noir writers like James Cain or Jim Thompson.

xxx(yyy): do you have a go to polenta recipe?
Keith Law: I use Alton Brown’s basic recipe – start with a diced onion sweated in some olive oil, add 4 parts liquid to 1 part polenta, cook in a 350 oven for 35 minutes, stirring a few times, and then finish with 2-3 Tbsp butter and up to 1 cup grated Parmiggiano-Reggiano.

Bmosc: As a fellow coffee aficionado, do you buy your beans locally or online, and if online, who is your go-to vendor?
Keith Law: I get a lot of coffee locally from Royal Mile and Re-Animator, and also buy coffee when I travel.

Ben : I’m surprised the Red Sox farm system isn’t competing with the Orioles for the worst in the league!!
Keith Law: I see more upside of guys already in that system than I do of guys in the O’s system.

Chip Dipson: What are your thoughts on Willie Calhoun? Might he still be a useful major leaguer, even without a defensive home?
Keith Law: Useful, yes, definitely. Not sure he’s a regular, and very low chance he’s more than that. That’s why he didn’t make the top 100 before 2018.

Phil: Who has the higher upside between Dustin May, Mitchell White and Dennis Santana?
Keith Law: Only one of them made my top 100…

Chris: Didn’t find Yordan Alvarez any of your lists. What’s your thoughts on him? Too risky of a hitting profile given he’s not a great defender?
Keith Law: See above. “Not a great defender” is kind. Might be a DH. Not an elite hitter, either.

Jamison: Why wouldn’t the Cubs be in on Harper or Machado?
Keith Law: Because they have no mo…. no mone… sorry, i just can’t say it without laughing.

Keone Kela: Odds of Taylor Hearn being able to stick in the rotation long-term?
Keith Law: Nonzero, but low, maybe 20%.

Dr. Bob: Key line from Michael Baumann in Ringer RE: Kapler: “Despite MLB’s efforts to combat domestic violence and sexual assault within the sport, its response to stories that involve violence against women tends to concern the player first. What can the player learn? Is he sorry? When can he return to the field? Perhaps there’s a suspension, maybe an apology, but the needs of the survivor usually take a back seat to the need of the sport to put the matter behind it.” I think you have been beating this drum as well. We all need to.
Keith Law: I agree with all of that. It’s the wrong way to think about crimes against women. And the fact that one of the players involved in the underage drinking incident was a significant prospect should have no impact on how the team or league handles such a matter, but in this case it is indisputable that it did.

Jason: Do you think Carson Fulmer could become a late-inning reliever? Feel like he could use a change of scenery.
Keith Law: Only been saying that since he was in high school.

Jerry: BR Pythagorean says 2018 Astros underachieved by 6 games. Only Astros regular who may have had a career year was Bregman. Assuming nothing catastrophic, is anything less than 100 wins a disappointing 2019?
Keith Law: You should never bank on 100+ wins as a threshold for success; it takes some good fortune to get there. If they win the division, and they should, then be happy.

Lester: Do you think Ronny Mauricio has a greater than 50 percent chance of sticking at SS in a vacuum? Not sure how that changes in a system with Amed and Gimenez.
Keith Law: Yes.

AGirlHasNoName: No, I am asking if you had to pick one team to win that division, would you pick the Cubs? Maybe a 35% chance, but still better than Brewers or Cardinals.
Keith Law: Yes, right now I’d give the Cubs the highest odds of the five teams, but certainly under 50%.

Pat D: My mother told me she was having a back and forth discussion with a friend over last night’s SOTU and her friend said it was much better to listen to Trump than “the traitor Obama.” I told her to unfriend that person, even without asking her to defend that statement because that person is clearly delusional. Agree?
Keith Law: Yes. You can’t reason with the irrational.

JG: Thank you for the write up on the AL Central prospects. For the Twins, you like Enlow as a potential #2 or #3 if he develops??
Keith Law: Yes, either.

Macey: You just had your first typo I’ve ever seen.
Keith Law: Well now I have to go find and fix it.

Rick Sanchez: Adell appears to be in a similar spot to Moncada a few years back as an uber-athlete with contact and pitch recognition issues. Do you see Adell overcoming those issues and reaching star status?
Keith Law: Not similar at all. Adell’s issues are a function of youth and inexperience.

Brad: Could Cionel Perez factor into the Astros rotation this year?
Keith Law: In theory, yes, but I think he’s behind too many other guys – maybe 8th or 9th on the depth chart right now.

Dan: Are there any foods you just won’t make because their too time-consuming/not worth the effort? I’m about to give up making sourdough bread from starter because it never turns out well and it takes days from start to finish with the slow proofing and starter feeding.
Keith Law: Sure. Even things I love making, like fresh pasta, are once in a blue moon items because of the time required (and the mess … oh god, there is flour everywhere).

Bill: Not a ?
Keith Law: Not an answer.

77Sticks: There seems to be a growing critique that writers shouldn’t analyze free agent signings as good or bad — that doing so takes a pro-management view, and thus is inherently anti-labor, and ignores the fact that owners are billionaires who can afford these contracts. Do you plan on dialing back your criticism or analysis in that regard?
Keith Law: No, because I don’t think that criticism has merit.

Nolan: Let’s say the Padres sign Harper. What would you do then about the *checks notes* 7 outfielders projected to be on the opening day roster? (those seven, as a refresher: Harper, Myers, Margot, Cordero, Reyes, Renfroe, Jankowski)
Keith Law: Of that group, only Margot really has to be there, because he can play centerfield (and does it well), and Harper’s presence isn’t related to that. None of the rest matter if you think you can sign Harper.

Bill: Just wanted you to hear i pay for espn bc of your content exclusively….also have purchased quite a few board games based on your reviews. Please keep doing what you are doing.
Keith Law: Thank you. That’s very kind of you.

Chris: Have you played any gloomhaven?
Keith Law: No, I don’t play role-playing games.

Mike : How do you feel about the DH being in the National League as quick as this year ?
Keith Law: Again, I favor it, but this year is going to be too soon.

Pierre: Pete Alonso 30 hrs over under?
Keith Law: He could do it. I’d guess under, but hardly shocked if he gets to 30.

Dave: Not sure if you can/want to talk about it but I have seen writers I respect sing the praises of Idelson. I know part of the problem is dealing with the Board, etc. but allowing a Board member to use company e-mail for statement is a big no-no. Committee stacking for the Baines vote. I really think the HOF needs someone who can lead in the future.
Keith Law: I have gotten along well with Jeff when we’ve interacted, but I’m glad to see the potential for a change here, for the reasons you identified. If the writers are going to choose the Hall of Famers, then let the writers choose the Hall of Famers. Don’t game ballot rules to try to prevent Bonds and Clemens from getting in. Don’t stack committees to get certain players in.

CH: Do you think MIA is getting weak-ish offers for Realmuto bc they said yes to nothing for Yelich? Can Brinson recover at all from LY?
Keith Law: I think they’re getting lower offers than they expected because teams value framing now and Realmuto is not a good framer.

Pierre: Justin Dunn in mariners rotation 2nd half ?
Keith Law: Unlikely. Maybe a September callup.

Doug: Padre fans are in love with Franmil Reyes? Can he repeat his success with the bat from last year? Any possible growth? Or a regression candidate? Thanks!
Keith Law: With his approach I don’t think there’s growth ahead.

Macey: Why do you think the Trump scandals don’t really stick? His family was proven to have cheated on hundreds of millions in taxes and it’s probably something 98% of people haven’t even heard of. Is everyone just waiting on Mueller or is it a bed of needles situation? It’s really the most amazing thing about him, how he gets away with so much.
Keith Law: It’s clear that maybe 30% of voters wouldn’t care what he did, because they favor policies he and the modern GOP support (which I think veer from many GOP platforms of previous generations).

JR: I understand teams looking for a deal, but are you surprised by the complete lack of discussion on some guys? Have you heard Keuchel or Adam Jones names associated with any team? MLBtraderumors twitter account used to be a must pay attention too everyday for chatter, but there is almost no talk on some guys. It’s weird.
Keith Law: Jones wasn’t on my top 50 free agents – he hasn’t been a productive regular in several years. Lack of a market for him disappoints me, as I like Jones the person quite a bit, but I am not surprised. Keuchel’s lack of a market surprises me since he was one of the best starters available. Even if there are durability questions, he’d help a lot of contenders right now.

Doug: Michael Baez a reliever for you? Assuming I will find out the answer in 4 days.
Keith Law: There’s a much higher belief across the industry this year that he’s a reliever than there was a year ago.

laney adams: Brandon Lowe seems like a very good and underrated prospect. Do you think he wins the 2b job or splits time in OF?
Keith Law: I want him to win the 2b job. He’s their best internal option.

Roberto Kelly: Do you see these old posts from millennials who called everything “gay” in the early 2000s coming back to ruin their careers? And what is being done in the present day that we might deem problematic 30 years from now?
Keith Law: The cases I’ve seen have gone past people just using the word “gay;” those same people have used a slur against gays that starts with f (which, helpfully, comes in three- and six-letter variations!). That word was never okay, in any context. If that’s on your twitter feed, even from ten years ago, delete it. Just search your own name and those words and delete all such posts.

lurs darkvert: How do the Reds eventually solve the PT with Winker and Kemp? Logically wouldn’t you want to give the most PT to the younger and much more talented player
Keith Law: I’d play Winker and bench Kemp until there’s a need for him. Seemed to me like they added his contract to make the deal happen and so the Dodgers would take Bailey back.

Mark: Do you think what Josh Bell has shown so far is what he is?
Keith Law: There is raw power in there he has yet to show in games.

Chris J: Just for the sake of context and comparisons – if you expected Kieboom to be at least passable defensively at SS, what sort of a range might he have fallen in your top 100? Thanks, Keith!
Keith Law: Higher, but where depends on what kind of defensive SS I thought he was. As it is, I see zero chance he’s a regular at short in the majors.

John: Did you see Bill DeWitt’s comment to the STL PD regarding players not being signed? “It’s not like people are hoarding money and making a lot of money in this business” That’s an exact quote. That’s so insulting to us fans.
Keith Law: It’s just plain false. I hope the paper pointed out the inaccuracy of the claim.

Darren: If you were just hired to be GM of the Rockies and were stuck with D Murphy at 1B, whom would you want to get the every day at bats at 2B. Hampson or McMahon?
Keith Law: I don’t think McMahon’s going to be a very good defender at second, or even an adequate one. I’d probably play Hampson there and find a way to get McMahon more AB at first.

Oscar Proud: Should Northam resign?
Keith Law: Absolutely.

Ben: What do you think of Schultz not wanting to be called a “billionaire” but rather a “person of means”? Do you think the wealthy should pay more taxes in this country?
Keith Law: Taxing wealth is complicated – you can move wealth, and you can hide it. Taxing income is more straightforward and easier to police.

Josh: Not a question, just really love seeing you dunk on Twitter folks that try to drag you over things that they clearly can’t comprehend and resort to petty insults (that are usually inaccurate). Keep it up!
Keith Law: Just another free service I offer.

Chris J: On Adam Jones – do you think there is any hesitation from some teams based on Jones’s willingness to speak out on certain topics?
Keith Law: Not at all.

xxx(yyy): where do you go to find good longform articles? right now i use some combo of The Sunday Longread (Don Van Natta Jr) and digg.com (reinvented from what it used to be)
Keith Law: I get them from lots of sources. You’ll notice I often link to longreads published in the Guardian, and some from longreads.com.

Mark: I recently re-watched Eddie Murphy Raw (might have been Delirious) and couldn’t believe how many times he dropped the 6 letter version of the F word. And he became a star of children’s movies, now his career would be over before it started.
Keith Law: Yeah, Delirious was, at its time, a seminal comedy album, one that helped make him a superstar and I think defined comic sensibilities for a large swath of listeners. (I knew much of that set by heart from listening to it so many times.) It is absolutely beyond the pale today – the gay-bashing is intolerable, both the use of the f-word as a slur and the entire attitude towards gays as freaks or deviants or simply objects of derision.

Matt: Do you think the Phillies should fire Kapler given the recent news from his time in L.A.?
Keith Law: No, not based on what I know about the situation.

Andy: Should capital gains be taxed at the same rate as income? I have an econ degree and I really don’t know the correct answer to this.
Keith Law: I don’t think there is a correct answer. Lowering the rate was supposed to spur investment and thus economic growth. I think it spurred investment but drove wealth (via cap gains) for a small percentage of the population, rather than growing the larger economy in a way that would benefit all strata.

Matt: I think a big issue that people miss with regards to wealth is that billionaires don’t actually have cash. Like Schultz doesn’t have billions sitting in a bank. It’s all in stock. So it’s harder to tax that unless he cashes the stock out.
Keith Law: Also true. If he cashes it out and spends it, there should be tax revenue from whatever he purchases.

Ridley Kemp: The New Yorker’s review of Roma dinged the film because Cuarón didn’t provide enough context for American viewers. Is that a legit complaint, or should the reviewer have perhaps taken their own lack of knowledge as a cue to pick up an effing book and learn a thing or two? (not that I have strong opinions on this or anything)
Keith Law: That’s a bad take. I’m surprised the New Yorker of all publications would run that.

Darren: Keith, I have a request. I know you are tough on ranking 1B due to defense and replacement level, but they provide a lot of offensive value. Would you be willing to add a top 10 1B/DH list of prospects based on offensive capability alone. It would be a golden nugget of an article for your fans that play fantasy baseball. Much Appreciated.
Keith Law: I appreciate the request, but I’m done writing for now. As far as ESPN is concerned, I’m on vacation for the next week.

Pat: Not hating, just curious. You had Diaz top 50 midseason and then dropped him 70+ spots. What could have possibly changed so much from July until now? Or am I thinking about this in the wrong way?
Keith Law: You are thinking about this the wrong way. The lists are not sequential; they are organic, and I build them from scratch each winter.

Lyle: Your board games list is for 2-hour or less games (and I understand your reasoning) but do you have any favorite games that are in the 4-hour (or more) range?
Keith Law: No. A four hour game is work.

Blackface was common in the 80s: I lived in the south, but am from the north. I had colleagues and friends who were reporters, attorneys and in one case a social worker who wore blackface to parties. I would never have done so … but I’m not fast to judge them now, 35 years later.
Keith Law: I am. I’ve said this before, but I remember an episode of a bad TV sitcom, Gimme a Break!, that explained why blackface was wrong – the youngest daughter dressed up Joey Lawrence’s character with blackface, and the late Nell Harper (an African-American actress) dressed her down for it by saying (paraphrasing) “I never thought I’d see the day when I heard you say the word n—–.” That had to be around 1985, on a major American television network. So don’t fucking tell me you didn’t know it was wrong, because I am not here for that bullshit.

DR: Why build annual lists from scratch each year rather than look at them as (shudders) “living” lists? Is this a conscious decision? I see each having pros/cons
Keith Law: They’re not living lists. Do you really want me to skew a list because I don’t want to drop a player by more than X spots, even if in my view and the industry’s the player’s value has changed by far more than that?
Keith Law: The point is to give you the most accurate list I can compile, using my own evaluations and those of industry sources I trust, that represents the players as they stand right now.

Greg: Ever been to Buffalo ? Any place to eat you really liked?
Keith Law: Yes, one spot I remember – a diner, maybe the Lake Effect Diner? Really good.

Adam: Hey man. No question here, just thanks for doing this. It’s clear you appreciate the people who read your work.
Keith Law: I do, thank you. I understand some people choose not to pay for my work, and that is their right, but I want to try to honor people who do make that choice and enable me to do this for a living. I appreciate all of you who shell out some of your cash to read my words and hear my thoughts. That is why this prospect rankings package gets longer and more detailed every year – the more I can deliver to readers, the better the chance you’ll believe you got your money’s worth.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week, but before I sign off, some quick administrative notes. I’m doing a Reddit AMA tomorrow on r/baseball at 1 pm ET. I may sneak in a Periscope as well, as long as I get a few things done before then. The team-by-team reports will run one division a day through Sunday. I’m taking a trip to visit friends in LA, so I will be less available on Twitter than normal, and may skip this week’s links roundup as well, although I expect to post other content to the dish. (I’ll still be posting nonsense on Instagram, as usual). Thank you all, as always, for your questions and for reading.

Starting at 1 pm ET. My top 100 prospects rankings are now up for ESPN+ subscribers. Farm systems rankings and individual team reports run next week.

Keith Law: I got the night on my side. Klawchat.

Connick: Not an ESPN+ subscriber, but a Dodgers fan itching to know if we have anyone on your list who might help the big club this year…pretty please?
Keith Law: ESPN+ is pretty inexpensive. You’ll get my entire prospect rankings, which is some ridiculous amount of content (I think it’s going to cross 40,000 words, which would make it half as long as my book), for $5/month.

Oriole fans : Your thoughts on Y Diaz. who we acquired from the Dodgers?
Keith Law: Average regular without ceiling. Don’t think he stays in center. Probably goes to right, hits for average with 15-18 bombs, solid OBP.

NIcholas: Nico Hoerner had about as good a pro debut as a prospect can have, controlling the strike zone and just mashing. How do you see his bat profiling in the majors? Is he like a .280/.360/.460 kind of guy?
Keith Law: I had to look this up because I couldn’t figure out what you were talking about. He played 14 games this summer. I’d be surprised if he had as much power as you seem to be forecasting.

Steve: Hi Keith, thanks for the list as always, one of my favorite reads of the year. Any thoughts on Emilio Vargas out of ARI? Seems to have blown up last year and has a shot to be in the bigs this year if things go well — could he be a 3/4?
Keith Law: It’s average stuff with deception and extension … those guys do sometimes turn into fourth starters but have a narrower margin for error.

John : Your thoughts on Brady Singer KC P. ? Daniel Lynch is now KC’s best pitching prospect ?
Keith Law: Yes, Lynch is their best pitching prospect. If they redid the draft today, he’d go in the top 10. I have, and have always had, big concerns on Singer’s delivery, both for injury risk and for his ability to get lefties out (command to glove side + lack of a viable CH).

Melo: The Pollock deal feels Ellsbury-ish, though obviously with less financial baggage. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I do not.

Tiana: Is there a regular Keith Law podcast in our futures?
Keith Law: That’s still a long-term plan but ESPN is not supportive.

Art: What’s your take on Mountcastle? Was he much of a consideration for top 100, and are there concerns other than defense/position?
Keith Law: Where does he play? I know MLB had him on the back of their 100, which I can support, but putting him higher would be absurd. He really has no position and hasn’t shown reason to anticipate high OBPs. That said, he can hit, and he’s going to get to some power as he fills out.

Brendan McKay: Does Tampa call me up this summer and let me pitch only ? Or wait?
Keith Law: I think they’ll still use him two ways this year which would imply he doesn’t pitch in the majors.

NY Mets fan : Are we going to regret trading Kelenic in three years ?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jackass Penguin: Giants need to draft a bat or arm at #10 this year?
Keith Law: I mean, if there’s a third option out there, I’d love to hear about it.

AA: Gohara had a rough year – personally and professionally. How far has he fallen out of the top 100?
Keith Law: He’s no longer eligible.

Mike : Would you trade a top 50 player for a proven major leaguer? Top 100 player? Or would you want to build through the draft?
Keith Law: Depends on what you’re getting – how proven, how good, how expensive, how many years of control – and where your team is right now.

Phillies Prospects: Hi Keith – great job on the prospect list – thank you for the chat – Hasely, Bohm, Medina the next 3 Phillies prospects? I know they didn’t just miss from reading ESPN+ but top 200?
Keith Law: Those aren’t the next three, no. Phillies org list runs next week.
Keith Law: Haseley looked bad last year.

Bilal: The Angels have been the picture of mediocrity for the better part of the past decade, despite deep pockets and a large market. Does it start with Arte Moreno?
Keith Law: They’re still recovering a bit from years of gutting the system and the bad contracts given to Hamilton, Wilson, Pujols.

Justin R: How close were Mickey Moniak, Blake Rutherford, or Corey Ray to the top 100?
Keith Law: Not at all.

Justin Y: Trammell looked so good in the Futures Game, why do you think he didn’t have that great a year overall?
Keith Law: He didn’t? Also there’s no way you’re not the same Justin.

Bilal: who’s getting the bulk of the starts behind the plate for the Dodgers by the All-Star break: Barnes, Smith or Ruiz?
Keith Law: Smith.

Kyle KS: Non-prospect question: Do you think more players will sign pre-free agency deals now with the current free agent market not looking like it rewards players appropriately?
Keith Law: I don’t see teams offering those deals as much right now.

CH: Vientos at 60 was a pleasant surprise for Mets fans. Thoughts on where he could/should end the season if he continues to progress?
Keith Law: High-A would be a great outcome. I think Mets fans may hear more about other prospects, so Vientos’ progress wasn’t as readily apparent, but that’s why I’m here.

CH: Are Anthony Kay or David Peterson top 150 guys?
Keith Law: Peterson for sure. Kay I don’t know. I truly don’t rank past ~110.

Steve: Hi Keith, do you think Luis Rengifo’s a plausible long term answer at 2B for LAAoA?
Keith Law: Yes.

David: Here in suburban Portland where everyone is on measles outbreak alert. Sure seems like the world is going backward in every respect. Antivax is child abuse.
Keith Law: Call your state reps – wherever you live – and ask them to eliminate nonmedical exemptions from mandatory vaccination requirements. We tightened them once in Delaware (because I called my state rep and asked for his help) and we’re going to push to tighten them further. Two states ban nonmedical exemptions entirely. The number should be 50.

Darren: What are you thoughts on Aramis Ademan? Was he hurt all year?
Keith Law: Looked awful when he played, totally overmatched at that level.

Darren: What have you heard on James Kaprelian’s return to health. Where do you think Oakland has him start the year, high A?
Keith Law: Supposed to be ready to roll for spring training. Threw in instructs but velocity wasn’t back yet.

Adam D.: With Bart, Luciano, Ramos, Canario and a top-10 pick this year, could you see the Giants jumping up into the top-20 systems by this time next year, or still too shallow even if those guys take significant strides forward in 2019?
Keith Law: I doubt it. I’m less high on Bart or Ramos than you might think from their draft positions.

J5: Ethan Hankins was once considered a 1.1 draft candidate but suffered what was once thought of as a shoulder injury but it turned out to be muscular Word is he fully recovered. Are you still bullish on him? Is he a top 100 guy without the injury?
Keith Law: Delivery questions remain. Stuff wasn’t good when he returned.

Jonathan: Not a question but I love the “Kal Daniels” name drop. I forgot all about him! Man, what a talent.
Keith Law: Personal favorite of mine.

Ben: Keith, really enjoying the new prospect content thus far. How far off was Issac Parades from your list? What are you thoughts on him in general?
Keith Law: Not a consideration.

Kyle: I’ll join in the group of at least 50+ people who are likely to ask you this, would Kyler Murray have had consideration for your Top 100 if he was giving up football?
Keith Law: Absolutely not. This isn’t a ranking of fame. Guy has barely played baseball in the last 3+ years.

YoYoYo: The Rangers are supposedly rebuilding, but have a bad farm system with just a couple of prospects barely making your top 100. Shouldn’t they have made more progress by now? And given the Padres have 10 top 100 prospects, wouldn’t Texas have been better off making A.J. Preller the g.m. and firing Jon Daniels rather than letting Preller go to San Diego?
Keith Law: Yo, yoyoyo, it’s not a bad farm system, three prospects on my top 100 is going to be the average by definition, and there’s depth there. Try the decaf.

J: Yordan Alvarez: Off the top 113 because of position? Overrated bat? Because his body makes all the boys come to the Yordan? (what?)
Keith Law: All of that. Well, the first two. And basically zero projection for growth.

Garrett: How far off was Jahmai Jones from your just missed? Do you think he can bounce back after last year.
Keith Law: Love the player, adequate already at 2b, has to produce.

Max: Are you going to vote for ARod if you’re still voting then?
Keith Law: Yes.

J.P.: I see one of two Luis Garcias on the list. What led to the omission of the Nats’ one?
Keith Law: I don’t know how to answer these questions. The truth is that these players are better prospects than he is. And, FWIW, no source who reviewed earlier versions of my list argued to put him on.

Adam: How far is Contreras from being ready?
Keith Law: Three years seems fair.

Ben: How do you think Cubs fans should look at only placing 1 in your top 100–natural result of graduating talent to a World Series championship, or evidence that they’re not evaluating or developing players well? I’m guessing the former, but wonder what your take is.
Keith Law: It’s fair to ask why they’ve had so many pitching prospects stall or bust, certainly.

AZ: Do you think Carter Stewart would have made your list if he had signed last year?
Keith Law: He was my #2 prospect going into the draft, and I think my top ten from that board all made the 100 or just missed list, so I would say yes.

Eric: Thank you for your work, I subscribe to Insider specifically to read it (and Buster’s work), but I’m literally laughing at all of the Twitter folks that don’t work in baseball figuratively losing their minds over rankings that do not impact their daily lives. This is supposed to be fun, people!
Keith Law: The thing that kills me is people who don’t know much or anything about the players, and who never scouted them or called scouts or executives or analysts to gather info on those players, claiming their opinions on the rankings are somehow equivalent to mine. FOH. You can have an opinion, but please don’t think I’m going to change mine based on yours.

Josh, Chicago (-59 right now): You seem to be highest on Dunn, Kelenic and Sheffield for Mariners with having all three in top 60. Haven’t seen them all that high in any other rankings. What are you seeing with them that others might not?
Keith Law: I wrote 200 or so words on every player. It’s there.

Lale: What are Vlad Jr’s weaknesses? When do you think will be his most productive years?
Keith Law: He’s probably a DH. He’s huge already at 19, not a good defender now, not likely to get better or get lighter. If you asked me which prospect I’d want for 2019, it’d be him. This list looks forward though, and for career value, I couldn’t take him, a likely DH who could get extremely heavy as he ages, over Tatis, a potential above-average defender at short who has a better long-term physical projection. The difference between an average SS and a DH just in positional adjustments for one season (150 games) is about 20 runs. If you think Tatis is just an average defender at short, Vlad Jr would have to outhit him by 20 runs of value just to pull even in total value.

Justin R: I noticed quite a large disparity between some of your top prospects (especially around the 50-70 range) and other lists (BA, BP, MLB Pipeline). I know you don’t look at other lists, but have you identified any differences in the way you evaluate prospects vs. other outlets?
Keith Law: As I said, I think highly of MLB, Baseball America, and Fangraphs. Fangraphs’ guys and I do a lot of in-person evaluations and incorporate that into our rankings. MLB and BA don’t – and that’s fine. It’s a different method. But all four of us talk extensively to scouts and FO people about our lists too.

Ben: What’s the latest on Adbert Alzolay? I think he was near the end of your top 100 last year–is he healthy again?
Keith Law: Wasn’t healthy and still needs a better third pitch.

Matt: Saw Adonis Medina fell off the list. I’m sorry if I missed an explanation; what were your thoughts there?
Keith Law: He did not fall off the list.

Randy: Corbin Martin and Josh James both made huge advances in the last year to become top 100 prospects. Do you think this is more of a result from the Astros system of developing pitchers, or more of these two pitchers own personal development?
Keith Law: James made some personal life changes that helped him improve his conditioning and become more serious about learning to pitch. Martin just got away from bad usage in college into a system where they let him be himself on the mound.

Zach: Love the Trammell ranking, but I’m concerned people overvalued his strong showing at the Futures Game. Was there enough shown in his modest 2nd half numbers to warrant the big movement up prospect lists?
Keith Law: I didn’t overvalue (or value) his showing in one exhibition game. His tools are there. I couldn’t tell you what his second half numbers said – unless there was a physical or mechanical change, it’s not worth slicing up the season into random tranches.

Rege: After a strong AFL, is Cole Tucker on the radar for top 100 at mid season?
Keith Law: No. AFL doesn’t really tell us much – it’s a hitter’s environment, too.

Andrew : Was it an editor’s choice to go from 51 to 100 instead of descending order?
Keith Law: Yes, their call, not mine.

Jamie: Has Nick Gordon fallen off the prospect ledge? What are scouts saying about him?
Keith Law: Look at what he did in AAA – and scouts said it was like he was swinging a wet noodle.

AZ: I know what you think of Bohemian Rhapsody. What would you think of Rami Malek winning best actor?
Keith Law: It’s best actor, not best impersonator.

Brian Godish: Not a question, but great job on the annual prospect lists. I honestly only subscribe to ESPN+ for content like this, thanks.
Keith Law: Thank you!

This guy: Any advice for someone just starting to understand the need for coping with anxiety/panic issues?
Keith Law: Meditation/mindfulness.

Derek : Guys like Alonso, Rooker, Yordan to name a few are they dinged in rankings because of the high threshold for 1B Bats?
Keith Law: Yes, and none is a good defender.

Andrew: Anthony Rizzo a comp for Grant Lavigne? 1B with plus ability to get on base and have average to a tick above average power?
Keith Law: I said that.

Justin R: How did the Yankees go in less than a year from one of the best systems in the game to nobody in the top 100?
Keith Law: Well, they didn’t have “nobody in the top 100,” so I don’t know what you’re asking.

Ghost of Josey Wales: Lone Star Ball said today that the Rangers have a number of red chip prospects, guys who fall in the 50-200 range overall in baseball, but no blue chips. Is that a fair assessment of where the team stands, or are they being overly optimistic about how many second-tier guys there are there?
Keith Law: That’s fair.

Carl: You said on Twitter that Yordan wasn’t close to 100, yet I believe you were the high man on him last year. What happened to change your mind. Seems like he hit well. Was the defense projected better?
Keith Law: These lists are not sequential – I start the list from scratch every year. I don’t even look at last year’s list when starting a new one.

Nick: I am curious what you have heard about Wenceel Perez. Will he be best Tigers SS prospect?
Keith Law: Not now, but he’s a name to watch.

Paulie P: Obviously Cal Quantrill had a miserable 2018 but are you still optimistic about his long-term prospects?
Keith Law: No, his stuff peaked in 2016 in his pro debut and for two years now it hasn’t progressed.

Jederle: How does klaw order his steak?
Keith Law: I don’t. I gave up beef two years ago.

Larry: Did you really think you had to go to 114? Does a guy like Nick Madrigal really deserve a writeup/ranking?
Keith Law: OK, Larry wants me to write up fewer players next year. When I stop at 86 next year, folks, it’s Larry’s fault.

Jonathan: Thought on Nate Lowe? For sure going to hit after making solid adjustments last year or still concern he’s Casey Gillaspie?
Keith Law: Better than Gillaspie. Still not sure he’s more than an average regular. I do think he’ll hit/get on base.

Johnny: Are more prospects focusing on plate discipline than in previous years? Seems like so many guys are coming up and being patient right off the bat. Or is that just confirmation bias on my part?
Keith Law: I think more teams are working on teaching this even at the lower levels.

Aaron: How close was Adolfo to top 100? Is he out due to injury, or because he just needs to show more?
Keith Law: He had a good year, but he was hurt and didn’t play the field all year either, and that was his first really strong year at the plate. I do like him, but that’s not a top 100 guy, not with the lack of track record and still open questions.

Zach: Jonathan India put up better numbers in the SEC than did Nick Senzel, but came out of nowhere. I noticed he didn’t make your top 100. Any concerns there beyond the slow start in pro-ball?
Keith Law: Did anyone actually read my top 100? I’m starting to wonder.

Joe: If you’re the Tigers, where do you start Mize this year and where do you hope he finishes?
Keith Law: Start in lakeland, hope he finishes in Toledo. Could pitch in the majors if needed, but he won’t be needed.

JP: Does Chavis still profile at 3B, or does your non-ranking indicate a move to 1B?
Keith Law: Don’t think he’s a 3b. At least not an average one.

Lance: Does Lazaro Armenteros (Oakland) or Julio Rodriguez (Seattle) crack the top 100 next year? And what do you think of their futures?
Keith Law: Lazarito definitely not, Rodriguez maybe for 2021.

Jason: Long-time fan, reader – too bad I can’t read your baseball work anymore as I’m Canadian. Thanks for the Dish though!
Keith Law: Try signing up through a VPN. Several readers reported that will allow you to circumvent the restrictions on ESPN+ for international subscribers.

Joe: Would it make any sense for the Dodgers to trade Ruiz in a deal for Realmuto?
Keith Law: Definitely not. And I don’t think they will.

Danny: I have no basis to quibble but very surprised that Deivi Garcia is your top Yankees prospect. Safe to say that there is a bit of distance between Deivi and presumably your next 2 Yankees prospects, Florial and Periera?
Keith Law: Those were my next two prospects, on the just missed page.

Dan: Love seeing your rankings, Keith. Such a small difference, but what is your reasoning for Honeywell being one spot ahead of Kopech? Does it come down to how his rehab is going compared to Kopech’s rehab still being early on?
Keith Law: We’re not really going to quibble over players separated by one spot in the rankings, are we? Other than 1-2 I don’t think that’s a conversation to have.

Tim: If he stays healthy could Alec Hansen be a top 50 guy next year?
Keith Law: How much was health, and how much was trouble with his delivery leading to lack of command? I don’t have a good answer for that.

Randy: Hi Keith, do you think Kirilloff could make it up to Twins by the end of the year? Thanks!
Keith Law: Nonzero chance but very unlikely.

Jonathan: My daughter is in 2nd grade and into comical chapter books at the moment. Any suggestions?
Keith Law: Paddington would be perfect.

David: How difficult was it deciding between Tatis and Guerrero for the #1 ranking?
Keith Law: Not really. See above – we’re talking a ~20 run advantage for Tatis out of the chute, and I happen to think Tatis is going to mash, plus I have long-term concerns over Vlad’s body that aren’t there for Tatis.

Chris: Was it almost all injury history/risk that kept Loaisiga off the Top 110?
Keith Law: He’s never been healthy for a full season or close to it, and this year it was a shoulder issue. I feel like the ease with which many pitchers return from TJ (elbow!) has made some folks feel like shoulder injuries are also not a concern. They are, big time.

Larry: Is Fernando Romero still a prospect?
Keith Law: No longer eligible. Still love him, want to see him start.

Steeeve: How does Myles Straw perform in the majors? He’s plus across the board in all but power but how does the opposite field approach translate? Can’t really reverse shift a RHH, right?
Keith Law: He’s plus in speed (80), not across the board, and probably has 20 power. Who has succeeded recently with that profile? Billy Hamilton never did. Terence Gore is a pinch runner.

Brett: Is Trea Turner a good player comp for Royce Lewis? If not, who?
Keith Law: Not remotely similar.

Shaun: Any chance Victor Victor makes the big leagues this year? What do you envision his comp being?
Keith Law: Extra outfielder.

Hank: Does BRUSDAR’s height create the same plane concerns that Berrios’ did on the fastball for you?
Keith Law: They aren’t the same pitcher. Graterol’s issues are more delivery-related – see the just missed column for more.

Jason: Does your ranking of Gore mean there isn’t an expectation that the blister thing is a long term issue?
Keith Law: It’s not a long term issue.
Keith Law: Or does he have some sort of chronic blister disease?

Jonathan: You’re the new president of the Player’s Association. What are the three things you will fight tooth-and-nail for in the next CBA?
Keith Law: You have to raise pay for players who haven’t reached free agency. The luxury tax threshold needs to go up, if not be eliminated entirely. And I’d fight for more pay for minor leaguers.

Max: Seeing as how my yankees just traded Sonny Gray, with hindsight being 20/20 was trading for him a big mistake? Fowler, Mateo and Kaprielian for Gray turned into Gray for a draft pick and Stowers.
Keith Law: Kaprielian we’ll see. Mateo was awful last year and Fowler is just a guy. Maybe they could have gotten more for that package at that time, but right now I don’t think they have much to regret.

Kevin: Given his graduation from prospect status and usage last year, does Max Fried still profile as a SP for you? Or do you think he ends up a long reliever given all the other Braves options?
Keith Law: He could start for someone, although Atlanta has so many options it might not happen there. Definitely profiles as a starter to me.

San Cristóbal D.R: Really high on deivi garcia considering you didn’t saw severino as a starter because of his small frame?
Keith Law: That’s dead false. I never dinged Severino for a small frame. I didn’t like his delivery and still don’t.

Kevin: I believe Mitch White made a midseason list or was at least a name to watch for you previously, did you get to see him last season? Any chance he ends up getting a spot start with the Dodgers this year?
Keith Law: He was on my midseason list over in 2017. Has had trouble staying healthy, and when he’s pitched his stuff has varied widely.

KC: Do you think Soroka’s shoulder issues from 2018 are behind him? Assuming he is the guy we saw in his first few major league starts and there aren’t any issues, would he be higher on your list?
Keith Law: I think his delivery puts more stress on his shoulder. I hope it’s never an issue again, and his shit looked unhittable in the majors, but I can’t not see that arm swing or ignore the possibility it led to the shoulder issue.

Danny: Where do you think Periera and Cabello start this season?
Keith Law: Charleston for both.

Jason: Any serious consideration for Wander Franco at #1 when you were putting th Elise together?
Keith Law: No. That would have been indefensible.

Sean: No Bohm in the top 100. Worried about his bat or that he will eventually end up at First?
Keith Law: Pro scouts were not fans of his defense and didn’t see an elite bat for 1b.

Paul: Don’t mean to nitpick or troll, but Gohara has pitched exactly 49 IP and I believe still has rookie eligibility. Is there some other qualifier I just don’t know about besides IP – maybe time on the 40-man?
Keith Law: If you read the intro to the rankings, it explains that rookie eligibility expires over 130 AB, 50 IP, or 45 days on the active roster during the 25-man limit. Gohara exceeded the last criterion.

Jason Amico: I’m currently reading your book Smart Baseball….I think your severely underrate Omar Vizquel’s defense
Keith Law: So you’re saying the data underrate Omar’s defense. That’s a take.

randplaty: A lot of people are putting an 80 grade on Vlad’s hit tool. You don’t think that adds up to more than 20 runs? Or do you think Tatis’ bat is better than others are giving credit for?
Keith Law: I don’t think his bat will be 20 runs better than Tatis year in and year out – and I think Tatis may be better than average at short – and I would bet on Tatis having a longer, healthier career than Vlad.

Zihuatanejo: How much time do you spend scouting players personally vs. talking to other scouts and team personnel?
Keith Law: Not sure how to measure that. I see players all year, whenever i can, through the AFL. Then I’ve spent the last ~two months making calls.

Jonathan: Chris Paddack = Young James Shields with the FB/CH combo and get-me-over breaker?
Keith Law: I feel like he has better command than Shields did but you’re in the ballpark.

Chris: Would your Best Impersonator argument apply to Bale as well? If so, who would you like of the remaining nominees?
Keith Law: I thought Bale did more as an actor, while obviously benefiting from the makeup and doing an impersonation. I’d take Cooper of the five nominees (haven’t seen Dafoe yet, but will). Joaquin Phoenix deserved a nomination for You Were Never Really Here, which too few people saw; and Ethan Hawke was flat-out robbed here for First Reformed.

Andrew: Where in the world is Anderson Espinoza? Any reason to think he can’t still reclaim prospect status?
Keith Law: Been gone for two years now. Let’s see what his stuff looks like if and when he returns.

nelson: How have your readers’ reactions changed to your top 100 over the years?
Keith Law: That’s a great question. I think wider availability of prospect information, and more non-professional sites trying to offer ‘scouting’ reports, has changed the conversation for better and worse. Questions and debates become more insightful.

SeanE: You have probably addressed this in the past, but why have you given up Beef?
Keith Law: My daughter and I share a metabolic disorder that makes red meat in general harder for our bodies to process. We gave up all red meat other than pork. I only miss it occasionally.

CBS: do you see a player like Khalil Lee ever developing enough of a hit or contact tool to be a MLB regular?
Keith Law: Yes. Not a hacker, just runs deep counts. And he improved his contact rate last year.

Mike: I’m surprised you haven’t had more teeth gnashing from delusional Giants fans, but maybe (hopefully) you’re filtering them out. Is it possible that Bart’s future is more variable given the position and his swing and miss? Or is it less variable given that he is a more finished (old) product?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s going to hit for much average. How different is he from Sean Murphy?

Mike: Was Garrett Hampson in consideration for the top 100? Is he purely a 2B or does the glove play at SS and maybe even CF?
Keith Law: I think there’s too much chance he doesn’t hit enough for 2b (he can’t play SS) to be a regular there.

Dave: Is there a performance or development reason that A ball is split between “Low-A” and “High-A” rather than just… say… having the minors go to AAAA? Or is it just an historical relic?
Keith Law: Historical relic. There were class B, C, and D leagues in the distant past. I feel like Rob Neyer might know more.

Dylan: Damn it Larry
Keith Law: #ItsLarrysFault

Dan: My music interests seem to differ quite a bit from yours but I have been obsessed with Young Fathers since reading your lists. They are incredible.
Keith Law: Aren’t they? I feel like nobody is quite like them. Someone accused me of liking only ‘mainstream’ hip-hop (which is really not true), and I felt like you can’t get less mainstream than Young Fathers.

Garrett: Chris Rodriguez was on your list
Keith Law: He was on it in 2018, but missed the year with a stress fracture in his back.

TK: I read the intro so I actually don’t have a question about your rankings. Loved reading them, though! Thanks.
Keith Law: You’re the only one.

Atown Ant: How far off was Ryan Dunne from Top 100? Looked like he had big upside in Cape Cod summer league, just needs to get his head on straight.
Keith Law: I assume this is a joke about that dumb movie (well, I think it’s dumb, but I haven’t actually watched it), but there was a Ryan Dunne on Billings last summer.

Travis: Thoughts on Julio Rodriguez? Was he in the discussion for the top 100? Does he have superstar upside?
Keith Law: I don’t think I had any DSL players on the top 100, did I? Not sure who the last July 2nd player without US pro experience was who made my 100 … maybe Sano.

Tim: Taking out Kopechs tommy john…how would you rate Chicago’s return in the Sale trade so far?
Keith Law: I think they did very well. Basabe is a real prospect. Kopech has an 80-85% chance of returning to exactly what he was before. Moncada has disappointed fans who were told he was the best prospect in baseball, but he still has value and room to develop. Good trade.

Andrew: Pretty cool to see Tatis #1. I remember seeing you taking video of him in the backfields of Peoria in 2017. At that point he was hitting homers on the AA field and it was clear he was special before even making it to full season ball.
Keith Law: He’s just not as famous as Vlad, and that’s fine, but I don’t consider fame in these rankings.

Tom: Is your ranking of Madrigal more of a ceiling issue?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s a fair way to put it. And I don’t think he’s a guaranteed regular, either. He’s exceptionally small for a major-league position player in 2019.

Steve O: Thanks for all the coverage. You’re the only reason why I have ESPN+ or whatever it’s called these days.
Keith Law: Well, maybe the name will change again in six months, but thank you.

Dave: I would love to see some sort of show with you, Mayo/Callis, J.J. Cooper, and Longerhagen/McDaniel in a format like ESPN’s The Sports Reporters. Baseball fans can’t get enough of prospect coverage and you guys would be tremendous.
Keith Law: I agree, but the powers that be don’t.

Larry: I am a little surprised by how high Duplantier is ranked. Is his shoulder not a huge concern for you? Or is his upside great enough that it outweighs any concerns about his health? Thank you!
Keith Law: Sure it’s a concern, but he came back from it healthy and throwing as hard as ever. It’s when guys don’t come back (yet) that I worry.

Mike: Hi Keith, my daughter is about to celebrate her 6th birthday and I’ve been trying to find an game to gift her that will both be something that challenges her and entertains her enough to act as an entry point into board games. Any suggestions? Thanks!
Keith Law: Ticket to Ride First Journey. Mole Rats in Space if you want a co-op title you can all play and win (or lose) together.

Sarcastic Commenter: Is it possible that Trump is tanking the GOP so they can get a higher draft pick and money pool for the 2024 President talent draft?
Keith Law: I laughed.

Joe: Michel Baez- reason for such a dramatic fall from mid-season 51 to off the list?
Keith Law: If you read what I said, there is no “fall.” Each list is organic, not based on previous lists.

Justin R: Any interest in watching the Super Bowl? Or at least cooking anything for it?
Keith Law: Probably neither. I literally forgot it was Sunday until my daughter mentioned it last night.

Rob : Any consideration of George Valera?
Keith Law: No. He missed almost the whole summer, so he’s barely played.

Robert: No question. I just wanted to thank you for the period you stayed away from the Arizona Fall League. It was nice to see Luis Robert play some games.
Keith Law: He missed one week of the AFL, and it was the week I was there.

Ryan: Briefly on Howard Schultz, I think the main problem he’s had is nobody’s actually buying his pitch: “two party system bad” while also being a – excuse the baseball term – replacement-level republican on most of his policy stances.
Keith Law: Yep. I’m glad these dipshits (add Gabbard to that list) are all playing themselves out now, while the election is over a year away.

Mike: I’m constantly impressed with how quickly you rip through these questions without spelling or grammar errors. Is there a book you could recommend on teaching proper writing techniques?
Keith Law: I read a lot, going back to when i was a kid. I have to think that helped form language skills in my mind early and then hold them in place. Although if I read more James Joyce I’d probably lose it all.

Jeries: If Ke’Bryan Hayes never develops power, can he still be a 3 WAR player?
Keith Law: Yes.

Bill: Michel Baez- reason for such a dramatic fall from mid-season #51 to off the list completely?
Keith Law: Yeah, so submitting the same question multiple times under different names doesn’t get you an answer, but it does piss me off, so don’t do that.

Wade: Who do you dream about making the biggest jump in your 2020 rankings? Who do you have nightmares about falling out of your rankings (for non-injury concerns)?
Keith Law: Mostly injury concerns are what bother me, but I was surprised how many front office guys didn’t value Sheffield the way I did (I’ve seen him lights-out, and think he’s a great athlete who’ll adjust well) or the Mariners did. The next guy on my Angels list was Jordyn Adams; I think he could be a superstar, but he just hasn’t played that much baseball yet and I felt like that would be overreaching since we don’t have a great idea of his zone control or pitch recognition yet.

Magoo: Anything to buy into with Florial and the Yankees hiring the so called guru of pitch recognition?
Keith Law: I wrote that too.

Lololololol: RE Vizquel, “I’m reading your published book and I think its wrong” is one of my all time favorite Klawchat moments.
Keith Law: Welcome to my life.
Keith Law: Sorry to cut this off but I have one more scout call to make for these last few lists, and it’s time for that. I’ll do a Periscope (video) chat on Thursday, and another Klawchat next week when the team reports run. I also used the Instagram story feature for today’s announcements for the first time (with a soundtrack!), so feel free to follow me there (@mrkeithlaw) and let me know if you enjoy those clips. Thanks again for reading, subscribing, and for all the questions!

My latest board game review for Paste covers Forbidden Sky, a new cooperative title from Matt Leacock (Pandemic, Forbidden Island) with a great STEM component to game play.

A reminder: the Top 100 prospect package begins its rollout on ESPN.com on Monday, January 28th.

Keith Law: At least we left before we had to go. Klawchat.

addoeh: Over/under? Combined, Harper and Machado’s deals end up being worth $500 million.
Keith Law: I’ll still take the over. I think the potential boost, in ticket sales and in wins, from adding one of those players will convince an owner to blink before we get to March. It’s the middle and lower tiers who will bear the brunt of the teams’ parsimony.

Nook: Is Bellinger still young enough to make significant strides offensively, or do you think 2018 was a realistic showing of who he is?
Keith Law: He’s still 23 so age isn’t a concern, but the way he swings leaves him vulnerable to a couple of pitching plans and he has to show he can adjust and shorten up if he wants to be more than he’s already been.

Adriane: Could you see the Reds selling off most of these new acquisitions at the deadline if the first half is a disappointment?
Keith Law: Yes, or even next winter in the case of Gray if he has a good year but the team still finishes in 4th place.

Kimmy: Dennis Santana: 4th-starter ceiling?
Keith Law: More likely reliever for me. I feel like if he starts he’d be more than that, but the odds are he’s a reliever.

Devon: Do you see the current collusion in the FA market as a cyclical problem that disappears after a few offseasons?
Keith Law: If it’s collusion, it’s not cyclical. One or the other.

Ave Maria: Is there a pitcher in the Dodgers system you’re particularly high on at the moment?
Keith Law: Several. You’ll see a couple of those names Monday-Wednesday.

Genesis B: Not that you care, but do you think Jeter has tainted his legacy somewhat since his group took over the Marlins?
Keith Law: I don’t care, but I can still comment. And yes, I think so.

barbeach: KLaw: Thanks as always for the chat. Question: Who is worse at his job: Trump or Giuliani? It’s close, but I have to go with Rudy.
Keith Law: Giuliani. He makes Lionel Hutz (RIP) look like Clarence Darrow.

Guest: Thoughts on the Mariano induction? Does this mean unanimous elections are going to be more common?
Keith Law: I believe they will be and fans will attach undue meaning to it. If your player gets in with 75.00%, that should be good enough.

Chris : The Markakis and Pomeranz deals are great for ATL and SFG. Agree?
Keith Law: They’re fine. They’re not bad. Great … would require a lot more than I think either player will provide.

Guest: What are the odds that the Mets traded Kelenic at his highest peak value? I’m sure the Rangers wish they traded Profar.
Keith Law: Low. Kelenic was too impressive this summer to think he’s peaked.

Helena: Is the long reliever cemented as a thing of the past, or could the Brewers’ and Red Sox postseason strategies revive it?
Keith Law: On the contrary, it’s already been revived, and I’m hearing more scouts describe pitchers as multi-inning relievers rather than just going with the binary starter/reliever framework.

Chris : Any buy-low FA starters you’d take over others? Wade Miley and Doug Fister seem like innings eaters in the right environment.
Keith Law: Miley for sure, best of that group. Fister, no.

Esteban: Who are a couple of names that weren’t on the top 100 or ‘Just Missed’ list that you wouldn’t be surprised–even expect– to make a big leap?
Keith Law: I’m not revealing any names on the list today. You’ll see them Monday through Wednesday and I will chat either Wednesday or Thursday.

addoeh: So our billionaire Commerce Secretary had his “Let them eat cake!” moment by saying furloughed Federal employees should get loans to cover the fact they aren’t getting paychecks. Of course, loans themselves have a real cost and some Federal employees may only be able to get predatory loans. Can he really be that out of touch?
Keith Law: Yes, he definitely is, as is Lara Trump, as are so many of the people responsible for the Trump Shutdown who appear unaware of the consequences for so many federal workers and for so many people who voted for Trump.

Leonardo: While it’s nice that Rivera was named on 100% of the HOF ballots it makes me wonder why 23 people didn’t vote for Willie Mays and 9 passed on Hank Aaron. I feel they were much better players (even in a different era). Any theories/ideas?
Keith Law: Lack of accountability. Misguided notions of “not on the first ballot.” General stupidity.

Mark: Hi Klaw,
If for some reason Tatis isn’t called up (injury, poor production, etc.) is Urias good enough defensively to play a full season at SS and be at least league average?
Keith Law: I think he’d be a 45 defender in the majors at short. I’m fine with him playing there for two months while Tatis tears up triple-A.

Mark: Keith,
Did you read the story in the SD Union-Tribune about the Padres’ owners “opening their books”? If so, did you find any of the information notable or was it just spin? Fowler, et all, come off looking like novices, like they didn’t know Moores was leaving a ton of debt or that just because you acquire some MLB players for one season in 2015 it doesn’t automatically mean you’re going to make a $50 million profit.
Keith Law: It did not paint the owners in a particularly good light.

Lafayette: If Andrew Friedman phoned you in a panic, desperate to find out how to put a World Series champion on the field, what would you tell him (after “Read ‘Smart Baseball”) ?
Keith Law: Live by launch angle, die by launch angle.

Fuzzy Dunlop: Snit saying they are leaning toward Inciarte leading off. 2 weeks max before they swtich Acuna there, right?
Keith Law: Yeah, that’s the wrong choice.

Kip: Arenado or Machado?
Keith Law: Machado.

Trevor: The D-backs have announced they’re switching their field surface from grass to turf next year and the Rangers may install it in their new stadium. Are you a purist and prefer the natural surface or ¯\_(?)_/¯ about it? Does it affect the grading of defensive skills in anyway?
Keith Law: Doesn’t affect the grading. Prefer grass from the aesthetic perspective but it’s still baseball on good turf.

Mike: Klaw, thanks for the chat. Who do we see first in MLB, a lefty catcher or lefty middle infielder. I read where Mets prospect Carlos Cortes learned how to throw with right hand so he can still play the infield. That’s crazy,
Keith Law: How could a lefty thrower play short or second?

Marshall MN: KLaw, I was just perusing the Baseball Prospectus Top 100, just curious do you ever look at those lists? Not necessarily as a check on your work but just to see how other writers/analysts rank prospects?
Keith Law: I look at BA’s (came out yesterday), MLB’s (comes out Saturday), and Fangraphs’ (comes out after the Super Bowl, date TBD). Those are the only lists I find credible, and I believe that is the industry sentiment. Jonathan Mayo and I generally compare our lists once they’re published, too. It’s fun to see what we heard that lined up and what we heard that widely differed.

Alex: As an author, how do you feel about people who can afford to buy your book, or any book, borrowing from the library instead? Is it a material drain on earnings? As background, my wife and I are trying to reduce our “new” purchases, but I don’t want to hurt authors.
Keith Law: Read my book however you like. I use the library myself. I buy new and used books. I buy ebooks when I see they’re on sale. read 104 books last year – that’s a lot of money if I buy them all new.

Kody: Dodgers sign Pollock for 4-5 years depending on who you believe. Doesn’t even a 10 year deal for Harper taking him through about the same age as Pollock’s deal make more sense? Nobody is concerned about Harper’s 26-31 seasons, right?
Keith Law: Well it’s not the same annual cost, not close.

Marshall MN: KLaw is it too early to put in a preemptive “you hate my team” complaint prior to the release of your Top 100 list next week?
Keith Law: Never too early.

David Stearns: I am high on my guy Hirua, how much of his minor league hit prowess translates, and do we have a 2B for the next 10 years who is at the top f his game?
Keith Law: He’s a solid player, very very likely to hit enough to be a regular. Star potential is limited.

Matt: There had to be a handful of writers that didn’t want to vote Rivera but were also worried they’d be the *only* one that didn’t vote for him right?
Keith Law: I never considered omitting him, but it occurred to me that doing so could make me the only one, and then I’d have to go into hiding.

Sack: When do you expect Harper and Machado to sign?
Keith Law: In February.

Mike: When a prospect returns bonus money, as Murray in theory might, how does that actually work? Presumably he’s spent some of it, so does the team give him time to repay? And what about taxes–he presumably paid a huge tax bill in the year he got his big bonus…can he claim a huge refund in the year he gives it back?
Keith Law: If Murray has to return the money it means he just got a much larger check from the NFL. He’ll be fine.

B Mand: Do you think the current Red Sox bullpen is as big of a weakness as most make it out to be? With the year to year fluctuation of relief pitchers, I’m fine with them saving their money for in-season trades if they end up needing help.
Keith Law: Same. And I wouldn’t overpay for Kimbrel just to try to patch it.

J: With another mystifying off-season for the Rockies coming to a close, what do you see them doing with McMahon and Rodgers, at least in 2019? And, Twins’ handling of outfield prospects aside, has a top prospect been more oddly dealt with than McMahon in recent years?
Keith Law: I feel like Rodgers is blocked for the moment, although I’m not a big Hampson fan (it’s 30 power) and Rodgers might bash enough in Albuquerque (huge hitter’s park) to force the issue by June. Their reluctance to let McMahon play regularly is befuddling. High pick, touted by the team, athletic, still has growth left. Play him.

Aaron C.: Has the *official* official schedule for the daily(?) prospects postings been released or is that still in the hands of your benevolent editor?
Keith Law: I mentioned it at the top of this post.

Ryan: Keith – do you think the removal of one year of team control – or even a change in the number of years of arbitration rights a team holds over a player – could help the stagnant free agency period and/or help to re-establish the player middle class. As is, I see the league devolving into a split between the well paid superstars and the entry level/roughly minimum wage players. In fairness, baseball isn’t the only sport going this route, but it certainly feels as wrong as the shrinking middle class in America. Thank you
Keith Law: I think the best solution would be to boost the minimum salary to $1 million or more. But that has some unintended consequences too.

Tom: Al Avila said today he doesn’t foresee the Tigers spending again until 2021, and that that’s the soonest they can compete. Does 2021 seem like a realistic goal for them in terms of being relevant?
Keith Law: I probably would have said 2022. The system has improved but still has a ways to go.

Mike: Thoughts on Dodgers trading away Puig (and friends) and replacing him with older and injury prone AJ Pollock?
Keith Law: Puig was a free agent after the year, so your question is leading, omitting a critical detail – and Pollock may be older but he’s a better all-around player right now.

Shane: Have you heard any whispers about what type of punishment the Dodgers face for their international issues and if that is playing a hand in their offseason moves?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard a word about it nor have I asked. Not really my department.

Anthony: Would you support a rule that shrinks MiLB option years from 3 to 1? It seems teams cycle through pre-arb guys with options while eschewing mid-level free agents, and this could open up opportunities for players blocked in their current orgs by spurring trades or waiver claims (albeit with maybe some adverse effects on player development)?
Keith Law: I feel like owners would absolutely lose their shit over that. They love their control.

Zirinsky: Hi Keith. What should MLB and the union consider implementing: earlier free agency, scrapping amateur bonus limits…what else?
Keith Law: I like the idea of earlier free agency because it’s pro-player, but really, would it change teams’ refusal to spend? I don’t see why.

BE: With the slow moving FA market, would it make sense for a team in a winnable division to load up on bargain deals and try to steal one?
Keith Law: I think you just subtweeted the Twins and White Sox.

Jason: Is Pollock better than Joc Pederson over the next two years?
Keith Law: Yes.

Zac: After next year, do you think your HOF ballot won’t have 10 names on it?
Keith Law: If I had to fill it out right now, I’d have 9.

Kwame: I know this is kind of a cheesy question but how did it feel to cast a Hall of Fame ballot?
Keith Law: Good. An honor and a privilege, but also an obligation to take it seriously. And yet there are still people unhappy with me. ?

Bort: Bryce Harper to the Blue Jays. Wouldn’t that be fun?
Keith Law: Yes. Can’t imagine Rogers doing that.

Andrew: Where do you see Kuechel landing? Would be a great fit for Colorado and give them one of the better rotations in the NL.
Keith Law: Great fit for every team, no?

Jerry: If Kyle Tucker tears it up in the spring again is he still headed to AAA to start the season? Is there a trade market for Josh Reddick?
Keith Law: They don’t really have a DH, so there is a job for Tucker if he earns it.

Andrew: I don’t get the uproar RE: the Gillette commercial. Aren’t they just saying don’t raise your kid to be an ass?
Keith Law: Yes. The uproar felt almost manufactured. Or maybe men are just little porcelain dolls who shatter if you look at them funny.

Boa : Angels are mystery Harper/Machado suitor right? Do over from Pujols/Hamilton disasters?
Keith Law: That would be fun. And then they probably do make the playoffs.

Alex: Saw your Instagram post about ottolenghi’s newest cookbook. Food looks good! But I’m also reading reviews that the recipes for an average home cook might actually take longer than 30mins to prepare? What’s been your experience?
Keith Law: The shallow-fried potatoes I made last night required about 10-15 minutes of prep and then cooked for 35. So that’s not a 30 minute recipe. I think the book’s beauty is that nothing is hard – you don’t need huge skills for anything, so if you do have some skills, you can prep quickly. My main complaint so far is that his quantities of herbs are hilariously high. 1/2 cup of thyme? I’d spend all fucking day trimming leaves to get that.

Bob: Time to give up on Hunter Harvey?
Keith Law: Why? Not sure I understand the desire fans have to give up on players.

Lilith: Sammy Siani or Mike Siani? Who has better tools and who would you say ends up being the better prospect?
Keith Law: I haven’t scouted Sammy yet, but he’s local so I certainly will. Mike could really run and I think he can hit, but some doofus hitting guru decided to try to improve his launch angle and suddenly he was Mr. Popup.

Zach: Should the Reds be commending for trying to win (unlike half the league) and holding onto their top prospects, or criticized for giving up mid-level pieces to improve a team that still probably won’t make the playoffs?
Keith Law: Thrilled to see a team try to win, but I don’t think they’ve gotten good value for their prospects.

Traino: Biggest Oscar lock?
Keith Law: Roma for Best Foreign Language Film.

ergo08: Hi Keith, listening to Jade Bird right now! Thanks for all your great content including that hidden gem. She rocks. Is there such a thing as how a swing transitions from aluminum to wood? Or, does that not really matter? Also, Twenty one pilots – yea or nay? Thanks!!
Keith Law: There can be a difference for some hitters, depending on the swing path and the hitter’s hand/wrist strength. I hate Twentyone pilots with the fire of a billion suns.

Beetlejuice: Seems like Gray has a good chance of outperforming 4 yrs @ $38M. Did he sell himself too short or does he have serious questions on being a league avg pitcher going forwards?
Keith Law: He also has a good chance of getting hurt, or underperforming. I don’t blame him one bit.

Jordan: With Justin Dunn gone, which pitcher has the most upside in the Mets system? I am torn between Szapucki and Woods-Richardson.
Keith Law: SWR – started throwing harder once he stopped playing shortstop too.

CH: Mariano Rivera is a HoFer for sure, but has anyone else’s worst career moments ever been more overlooked and whitewashed than his? (Luis Gonzalez/Game 7 2001 WS, Dave Roberts/Game 5 2004 ALCS, Sandy Alomar/Game 4 ALDS 1997).
Keith Law: I’m having a hard time seeing the Gonzalez or Roberts moments as some terrible events we’d have to work to gloss over. Didn’t Gonzalez just chop one weakly up the middle?

Patrick: If there was no 10 max, how many people would have gotten your vote for HOF?
Keith Law: I said 14 in my column, IIRC.

Jackie: Jeter is the only “gimmie” on next year’s HOF ballot. Do you think Curt Schilling, the highest vote total among the non-elected, goes in as well? Perhaps the only American who needs to stay away from Twitter more than Trump …
Keith Law: I believe Jeter gets in, still think Walker can make a big move (with some sabermetrics support), and wonder if the changing electorate will hurt Schilling, who seemed from Ryan Thibodeaux’s work to get far more of his support from white, male writers than other candidates.

Justin R: Is next year finally going to be Max Kepler’s breakout?
Keith Law: I dreamed last night that Kepler was in the middle of a breakout season. Not even joking.

Justin R: What is stopping AOC from running for President and daring the Supreme Court to stop her? Absurd that her age disqualifies her but a racist reality show host in his 70s (with obvious signs of significant cognitive decline) can run.
Keith Law: On what grounds? The age requirement is in the Constitution. You can’t claim it’s unconstitutional.

Justin R: Can just one reporter ask Trump why we have to be nice to the little Covington bigots after what he did to the Central Park Five?
Keith Law: I think we both know the answer to that. White privilege is a hell of a drug.

Johnny: Is Eloy as ready as many are saying? What kind of an impact do you think he can make this season?
Keith Law: He was ready last summer.

Sean: Do you believe that Halladay would’ve been a first-ballot HOF regardless of his tragic passing?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t have been surprised at all if he’d fallen short, somewhere in the 60-65% range, and gotten in on year 2. His career wasn’t very long by HoF standards, and voters have been very hard on starting pitchers the last ten years.

Erik: Please tell me neither Green Book nor BR will win best
Keith Law: I’m betting on Roma. If you wanted to place an actual bet, since Roma is something like -1100, I’d go with the Favourite, which got Director and Screenplay nods. But Roma getting those two plus surprise nominations for two actresses says to me it might run the table.

Tom: Thoughts on Darwinzon Hernandez? Is his most likely future as a high-leverage reliever, or does he overcome his control issues and remain a starter?
Keith Law: Starter upside, long way to go to get there.

JIm: Keith, did you ever read any of Jasper FForde’s other books? I just finished the first book of his Nursery Crimes Division duology. A bit less compelling than the Thursday Next, but not bad at all.
Keith Law: I’ve read everything he’s written, and I preordered Early Riser already.

Larry: Hey Keith, I know you don’t like commenting on other lists, but Baseball America had Geraldo Perdomo ahead of Kristian Robinson in the Dbacks system. What do you think of Perdomo’s potential, and do you think he may be a better prospect than Robinson? Thank you!
Keith Law: I’ll just say I have Robinson a good bit higher than Perdomo.

Quicky the Fast: The Rangers appear committed to Gallo and Mazara in the outfield corners this year, which means no role for Willie Calhoun if Shin-Soo Choo is the DH. At this point, should Texas simply release Choo, or is there value in keeping him around?
Keith Law: Choo was worth 2.8 rWAR last year – releasing him now would be bonkers. At least see if he’s still capable of producing.

Taylor: Hey Keith, have you heard of a metal band called Nevermore? I just heard of them this week and they really kick ass!
Keith Law: Yes, but they’re defunct. That was Tim Calvert’s band after Forbidden, but he died last April.

Jackie: One thing about the Mariano 100% election — he was the unquestioned Best Player Ever at his position. There’s universal agreement that he’s the #1 closer of all time. When was the last time we had such a player on the ballot? Junior Griffey was a better ball player, but he wasn’t the best outfielder ever. That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised if Jeter isn’t a 100% vote next year — great player, but someone will say, “Yeah, but he was no Honus Wagner.”
Keith Law: And it shouldn’t matter. He gets a plaque regardless of his vote total.

Justin R: What was the worst movie you saw in 2018?
Keith Law: The Wife. Execrable, predictable, insulting claptrap.

Victor: Could you see Judge being a passage center fielder despite his size, a-la Bellinger?
Keith Law: No.

Aaron C.: Was it last year when an illness during “prospects writing season” hampered you? Do you feel it impacted the final product w/r/t phone calls, writing length, analysis that wouldn’t hamstring a healthy Klaw? (FWIW, that’s not a dig. I always love your sh t, sir.)
Keith Law: Three years ago. Worst illness I’ve had as an adult. It cost me some phone call time, but we also pushed the whole package back a week because I physically couldn’t work.

Jackie: For the record, I’m a huge Red Sox fan, and I’m OK with it if you hate our farm system. Looking pretty barren …
Keith Law: It’s weak, but not barren – they were as riddled with injuries as any system I can think of. Their recent drafts have been solid, and they have some big-time international FA prospects on the way. They could go 25 to 10 (I don’t have that finalized, this is just a general idea) in a year.

San Cristóbal D.R: Surprise no Yankees make BA top 100 list?
Keith Law: I’m not surprised, although I have more than zero.

Beetlejuice: To win the most games, you’re given the choice of taking 5 #3 starters or a #1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Regulation season win total only considered. What are your thoughts?
Keith Law: the 1-2-3-4-5.

John : Any advice for furloughed government worker who isn’t getting paid ? How can I not be so angry at the president for a stinking wall?
Keith Law: You should be angry, and then do something about it, but first take care of yourself and your family. It’s fortunate that so many charities and businesses are trying to help – it just shouldn’t be necessary.

Sean: My guess is Harper and Machado both announce on Super Bowl Sunday. Isn’t that what A-Rod did a while back?
Keith Law: As a fan of polite trolling, I would endorse this wholeheartedly.

Matt: Can a player be removed from the Hall of Fame? Let’s say a member was convicted of murder for example.
Keith Law: Nope. Although you raise an interesting question: What if we have an OJ Simpson situation, a player on the ballot who is absolutely worthy on baseball grounds but who commits a crime that is beyond the pale? There are at least two players on the ballot now who were accused of domestic abuse (Bonds, during his career, by his wife Sun; Andruw, after his career, by his wife), and one accused of statutory rape (Clemens, who denied it). I know of one other who has an accusation that wasn’t public. I’m sure there are more. are there some crimes we can’t overlook? Does the character clause cover things after one’s career? I have no good answers.

Kyle Tucker : Do I replace Josh Reddick in June ?
Keith Law: Springer, Reddick, Brantley, Tucker, three outfield spots + DH.

Anuj: Is Ruiz and J. Gray for Realmuto too much, fair, or too little?
Keith Law: Too much, and the Dodgers are not trading for a terrible framing catcher.

Kevin : Are there any underrated minor-league prospects that come up and make an impact this summer ?
Keith Law: I’ll have a ranking of the top 20 prospects for 2019 impact up at the end of next week. As for “underrated,” if I think they’ll have an impact in 2019, then I won’t underrate them.

Justin R: Now that Edgar Martinez is (finally) in, does David Ortiz go in on the first ballot?
Keith Law: Yes.

JIm: Am I the only one who has the feeling that Trump came out of the SOTU fight looking like the more mature adult?
Keith Law: (looks around) Yep, you are indeed the only one.

Jake: Have you every played Diplomacy? If so, what did you think?
Keith Law: Yes. After the second time I killed someone for betraying me, I thought I should take a break.

Leandro: Heard you on BBTN today saying you think Helton is Hall-worthy at some point. Feel the same way about Larry Walker?
Keith Law: My ballot was public.

Jim: Keith – Do you think the sale of Fox (or part of Fox) to Disney will impact the regional sport channels and the next contracts some of the teams might get? I know the Fox interest in some, like YES, are already being discussed as available.
Keith Law: Disney wasn’t allowed to retain the RSNs (Fox Sports Paducah, etc.) by the Justice Department.

EC: Is there something that you wish readers of your prospect write ups would do or know? Like not assume gaps between ranks are uniform? Understanding positional value and scarcity? Taking a bit of time to understand how your methodology differs from other lists before coming at you? Reading the introduction?
Keith Law: Read the intro and calm down.

Todd: Shouldnt all Hall of Fame inductees have to get 100%? It should be a group of immortal players who no dibt are qualified
Keith Law: You must be fun at parties.

Patrick: going off what Mike said previously, in your opinion how come we’ve never seen a lefty catcher or why do you think it’s not taught more at a younger age?
Keith Law: If you can throw that well and you’re left-handed someone is putting you on a mound. There’s also the old belief that a LH catcher would be at a disadvantage throwing with more batters batting RH.

Chris: Brad Brach for 1/$3M is a steal. 2019 is the year of the market correction.
Keith Law: He was worth less than a win last year and relievers are volatile. It’s not like he should be getting $10 million.

Greg: Did you see all the awful Jays fans coming out of the woodwork to berate Halladay’s family for “clearly going against his wishes” to go into the hall has a Blue Jay? As if they somehow knew better than his wife, just based on one interview he gave. Just gross. Do you think it’s possible that his wife got some insight from Doc in non-interview form? Just maybe?
Keith Law: Yep. That Philly Inquirer column was worse. Someone wrote that he knew better than Halladay’s widow, and ignored Halladay’s own statements in 2016, and then at least one editor saw that and thought, “yeah, this is definitely a well-considered opinion and not something that will embarrass our entire newspaper.”

Kacey: Thoughts on AOC? Personally I’m in love. The type of politician I’ve always wanted.
Keith Law: I’m just enjoying the conservative obsession with her and how frequently she dunks on them on social media. That doesn’t make her a good or bad Congressperson, but it is very entertaining.

Todd: Yanks still have a good to really good farm system?
Keith Law: No, with trades and graduations it has declined, although they have this cluster of Latin American kids, all 19 and under, who have big potential with low probabilities.

Harrison: Do you see Nick Castellanos being dealt this offseason? If so, what type of return do you think he could bring in? Any chance at a Top 100 prospect?
Keith Law: They have no reason to keep him at this point, but should wait for a good offer – one top 100 guy, two guys who are close.

John: What’s the difference between this shutdown and the Obama shutdown besides political opinions on how much should go to the border wall? House republicans caved to Obama back then, are republicans wrong to expect the same from house democrats here?
Keith Law: I mean, what’s the difference between World War II and the Korean War besides the extermination of 6 million Jews?

Greg: Remember all those people saying Pelosi should step aside? Can you imagine anyone else handing Trump his lunch like that? You know he’s terrified of her when his nickname for her is… “Nancy.”
Keith Law: Trevor Noah made that joke. He calls a murderous dictator Rocket Man and calls Pelosi by her given name.

John: What do you think Jahmai Jones ends up as?
Keith Law: Solid average second baseman. Still have some hope for more – he hasn’t hit like I expected yet.

Ryan: I know this isnt a huge issue in the grand scheme of things but how do you feel about Halladay not going into the HOF without a Jays cap? I understand that was what his family decided but do you think players or their families should have input into this decision or should it be left up to the Hall entirely? Seems wrong that he isn’t going in as a Jay.
Keith Law: There’s no way I’m going against a widow’s wishes.

Ben Jammin: Do you think Dom Smith has some decent upside left? I think most any of the non-contending teams should be interested, as he can’t really be all that expensive.
Keith Law: Yes, and yes.

El Guapo: Thoughts on Julio Urias’ outlook? Is it 100% a health question going forward? The stuff looked to be back last fall but sample is so small… can he still be a no. 2 if everything works out? Or is that a pipe dream.
Keith Law: Uncharted waters. I know people keep asking me this, but we have so little history of pitchers having this surgery and returning that there isn’t a good answer.

drew: Keith, I’m missing your FA evaluations…how come they stopped after the first couple weeks of free agency? Can we expect them back?
Keith Law: Kind of busy writing up the prospect stuff.
Keith Law: I did write up the Gray trade though.

Jeff: Keith – I understand that the Reds only acquired 1 year of Gray from NYY, but it seems to me that they essentially agreed to a package and made it contingent upon Gray agreeing to an extension. Otherwise, they were just going to back out altogether. There was no “here’s what we’ll give you if he signs; here’s what we’ll give you if he doesn’t.” Is that more understandable/justifiable to you, or is it a distinction without a difference?
Keith Law: If they were willing to trade for his one year with the extension, then they should have been willing to trade for the one year without it.

Tyler: I am glad I do not have a vote. Your ballot was one of the better ones for sure. I would have left Rivera off and felt really bad about it. I had him between 8th and 13th on this ballot and knowing full well he was getting in would have used it on someone else. As bad as I feel for McGriff he is going to get in soon. Out of all the players who did not get 5% is there any who you wish you still had a chance to vote for?
Keith Law: Ever? Lou Whitaker.

Aaron G: The Gonzalez hit in the 2001 WS was a humpback liner that if Torre had played the IF at double play depth Jeter would have caught.
Keith Law: Right? I mean, yes, Rivera gave up the batted ball, but it’s not like it was crushed.

Marshall MN: KLaw are you going on a vacation now that your Top 100 work is wrapping up?
Keith Law: I will take a few days off in early February. Not sure if I’ll go somewhere or just chill at home.

cnp: You read 104 books last year…nice. I only hit 60 so just making my way through last years Top Books™. If you haven’t read it, I thoroughly suggest Washington Black. Thought it was beautiful
Keith Law: Thank you, I will seek it out. Best new books I read were Lincoln in the Bardo, Exit West, From a Low and Quiet Sea, Sabrina, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Why We Sleep.

Ron: Keith – the hot take bait question these days seems to be, “is it immoral for our society to have billionaires?”. How would you answer that?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t; I’m not that concerned with morality in economics. I’ll take a system that feels ‘immoral’ if it means the economy is growing and the greatest possible number of people are getting all of their basic needs met.

Kacey: What’s the theory on gaining support for the HOF? Either you think someone is worthy or you don’t.
Keith Law: The crowded ballot and time to reconsider their qualifications.

Drew: Did you listen to any exceptional audiobooks last year that you’d recommend?
Keith Law: Killers of the Flower Moon.

Joe: Keith, knowing that you have finite time, would you ever see a movie that just looks good to you even if it got poor reviews?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jackie: Do you ever look at your posts to see how many clicks/responses they get? And does that affect what you later post, i.e., “Well, no one cared about my ‘Police Academy 9’ review, so I guess I won’t review any more Steve Guttenberg movies at Meadow Party.” Or are you … indifferent to the volume of response to your posts?
Keith Law: Sort of. I stopped doing music posts beyond the monthly playlists because people didn’t click much on album reviews or leave comments. But I review a lot of books or obscure movies that don’t get clicks, and I don’t mind that. The Top Chef reviews did pretty well, on the other hand, but took 3-4 hours (including time to watch), and I just can’t afford that.

Jeries: Can Nick Madrigal be a 4 WAR player if he hits zero home runs?
Keith Law: I think he’ll hit 5-8, and probably never see 4 WAR.

Thomas: Triston Casas should start the season in ….
Keith Law: I’d be fine sending him to Greenville.

Bob Pollard: Would you consider the Cardinals’ system “ridiculously prospect-rich”?
Keith Law: No, but it’s in the middle.

KillMonger: Thanks to you, I read Sabrina and absolutely loved it – powerful storytelling. On a random note – have you read Pale Fire? I’m on a Nabokov kick and I’m finishing up Pnin right now. His prose is HOF-level.
Keith Law: I did read Pale Fire and found it kind of annoying/frustrating. Too ‘inside baseball’ for me.

Querant: Is there any practical difference between getting an invite to major league training, and not getting an invite, for a player on a minor league deal? Do they get a larger stipend if they are invited to major league camp, better housing, etc.? Or is it just a matter of which clubhouse they go to each morning?
Keith Law: Better per diems and of course a chance to play in major league games, which means a chance to make the team or catch the attention of other teams.

Brent: Do you think Luis Gonzalez from CWS is an under the radar prospect worth keeping an eye on? Put up good numbers, though I think he’s old for his level, but does he have the potential to be a “prospect”?
Keith Law: He is a prospect. Wasn’t he just a second round pick?

Jake: As someone who is well to the right of you politically (but probably on the same page on baseball), can I apologize that my party nominated this moron and still stand behind him as he fucks everything up?
Keith Law: Yes, but if lots of people like you just move temporarily to the left, we can go back to our normal level of fucked-up as opposed to the current level of holy fucking shit we fucked this up.

Ian: You mean soon to be Academy Award Winning “The Wife”. Such a weird Oscar year.
Keith Law: I’m not sure. Colman could take it.

Todd: No cloud of PEDs on Ortiz’s ballot?
Keith Law: We remember what we choose to remember, and forget what it is convenient to forget.

Doug: Looking forward to your list next week. Also, I am glad the Dominican Series is over and Tatis won’t be able to break a finger just in case you keep him at #1.
Keith Law: He’s still #1 – that’s not news, since he was there in July.

el Guapo: On Tatis, obviously you are very high on him. Is it nitpicking to point out that he struck out at a 28% clip last year and that number didn’t come down even when he went on a tear (babip reliant)? Or is it just a 19 year old playing at a very advanced AA level and I need to get used to the fact that Ks are part of modern baseball. It’s worth noting for others (not sure I have seen you do this) making the Machado comp that Manny only K’ed at a 19% clip in AA at a similar age.
Keith Law: 28% isn’t that high today and he was, as you said, 19, exceptionally young for that level. And he’s a shortstop.

Drew: Are you planning to vote in the Democratic Primary? If so, will you take electability concerns into account, or are you going to vote for whomever you think would make do the job best if they win in the general?
Keith Law: Delaware’s primary is pretty late – April 26th in 2016 – so it may not matter at all.

Corey: Still thinking that the quickest way to end the shutdown is a mass TSA/air traffic controller sick-out. Not a strike as that’s illegal but if the global transportation system shuts down, gives the Traitor Turtle an out. This is purely about his ’20 re-election b/c of how tightly the KY GOP supports Dump.
Keith Law: I’d imagine many wealthy people who have supported the GOP on tax policies and the massive rollback of environmental and labor protections will be very unhappy if their flights are cancelled or delayed.

C: Is kikuchi a prospect or a veteran? How should a prospect be defined by a ranking service? Mlb experience or should age/professional (non minor league) experience effect if they are ranked in prospect rankings?
Keith Law: He played in a major league. He’s not a prospect. I do not rank NPB or KBO veterans.

Kurt: Are the Nats better this year than last? I’m not doing the, “better without Harper” thing…but if you had to guess, this roster will win more than 82 games, right?
Keith Law: Yes, they’re better. If they re-sign Harper after all, they’re the favorites in the East.

Jerry: Assuming no catastrophes (Bregman, Correa career-ending injuries, etc) how long do you think the Astros window of contention is open for?
Keith Law: I’d say another 4-5 years. The system is still above the median for me.

Justin R: How do you motivate yourself to write? I have outlined and planned novels for years but when it comes time to actually write a chapter, I freeze up.
Keith Law: Write something else first. Anything. A journal, a blog post, a letter to nobody. Then don’t stop – move right into writing your chapters.

John: I don’t know if you’ve read this, but I keep telling everyone. In the past election only 5% of americans voted for Trump or Hillary in the primaries. 5% of people decided the two people that could be our next president. VOTE IN PRIMARIES.
Keith Law: I hadn’t but it doesn’t surprise me. The Iowa Caucuses are the dumbest thing in our country’s dumb politics.

Kyle KS: What’s the reason behind the general lack of support for Rolen? Better hitter and defender than Vizquel but nowhere near the votes.
Keith Law: There’s a weird mythology around Vizquel from people who watched him and think they saw a much better defender than they actually saw.

Jim: How do you possibly deny that you are a leftist?
Keith Law: People call me a “leftist” because I think science is real, all people deserve equal treatment under the law, and we should base policies on evidence. Well slap my knee and call me Karl.
Keith Law: Thank you all for reading this week. The prospect package does indeed begin on Monday with the “just missed” list. I’ll chat next week to take your questions on the top 100, and then the farm rankings and org reports go up the following week. Thanks again and enjoy your weekends.

My latest game review for Paste looks at the deduction game Cryptid, where three to five players try to identify the location of the Creature by deducing the other players’ clues while trying to hide their own. It’s excellent.

Keith Law: It’s half past four and I’m shifting gears. Klawchat.

Bmosc: Keith, love the chats and content on the site. I always enjoy your levelheaded and logical takes on baseball and other issues. As a Yankee fan, who do you think would present more value, Harper or Machado, and how disappointed should I be that it seems Hal is more intent on pocketing the ridiculous revenue than he is on closing the gap b/w the Yanks and other contenders?
Keith Law: Either would be a big help – and yes, you should be frustrated. All owners have the money to improve, but the consensus among owners is that they should pocket more of the profits rather than passing it along to labor. Personally, I think Machado is a better fit for the Yanks, but if they signed Harper they’d make it work.

TE: With all the talk of Kyler Murray and the NFL draft, what does this mean for the A’s? Does he have to break his contract? Would the A’s get compensation? It seems like a pretty raw deal for them, given that Boras likely assured the team he would sign and play baseball exclusively (otherwise they wouldn’t have drafted him).
Keith Law: Right now it means nothing at all. He’s only declared for the NFL draft, which has no impact on the A’s or his baseball contract. It only starts to matter if he doesn’t show up for spring training/the season, or leaves the team at some point. He could owe the A’s the entire bonus, and no, they’d get no compensation. I suppose he’d make a lot more money in the short term, but there is no amount of money you could offer me that would make me consider risking traumatic brain injuries by playing football.

Ron: Astudillo have a roster spot this spring? Maybe should have one for being able to help out at a couple positions? Is the bat real? Thanks!
Keith Law: He can do enough with the bat that he should be on the roster. I don’t think he’s a regular, if that’s what you’re asking.

PA Prospects: You going to see Chris Newell play at any point this season? Any other SE PA prospects to look at?
Keith Law: Yep, I’ll see him and the younger Siani brother. Both are about 40-45 minutes from me.

dave from boston: Do you see the Redsox using Chris Sale once every five or six of his starts as an opener, pitching an inning or two only, in order to save wear and tear on him? Would you ever recommend something like this?
Keith Law: Not really sure that would do anything to help.

Chip: Does Houston’s recent draft history (hitting big w/Correa and Bregman and lots of hope for Tucker, missing on Appel and Aiken for various reasons) inform us at all as to what Elias likely does at 1/1? How does Rutschman compare to Wieters?
Keith Law: I don’t think it informs anything. There’s no consensus #1 (not Rutschman, not Witt Jr.) and they may simply try to cut the best deal among the pool of candidates and then try to go over slot multiple times with later picks, as the Astros did in the Correa year, and the Phillies and Twins did in ’16 and ’17.

Marvin: Instead of stalking that girl on Twitrter, do you think Trevor Bauer would have been better off tracking down where she went to school and/or worked, then tattling to her principal/dean and or boss while demanding that she be expelled or fired?
Keith Law: That would be seriously fucked up. What an entirely normal question.

Jo-Nathan: Hey Keith, is there any way to access to your work in Canada now that everything is behind ESPN+? I emailed and called ESPN weeks ago but I haven’t received a response. Very odd that they don’t want to take my money anymore (I get that its to block me from streaming content but I would gladly pay the same price to access writing content alone).
Keith Law: Unfortunately I don’t know of an answer yet. I’m sorry.

Susie: Do you see Ian Anderson as a top of the rotation type in the near future? Any concerns with the spin rate of his arsenal?
Keith Law: I do not have concerns about anyone’s spin rate unless the hitters start hitting it. The goal here is not maximizing spin rate, but maximizing results. If improving one’s spin rate gets better results, great, but when the results are good (as Anderson’s have been), why would we concern ourselves with his spin rate either way? (By the way, I have never heard anyone say his spin rates are poor.)

Dana: I think every MLB team should be forced to disclose their revenue and spend a certain percentage of it on player salaries. Agree?
Keith Law: Yes. You should go run the MLBPA.

Dusty: Any update on The Leftovers? I’ve been anxious to see what you thought of the 2nd and 3rd seasons.
Keith Law: I have no immediate plans to continue watching. I let my HBO subscription lapse a while ago.

Chris: What are your thoughts on all the Mets moves last weekend?
Keith Law: They keep trading dollars for 80 cents. Lockett is a waiver claim; Plawecki is at least a solid backup. The Houston deal was worse – Santana is a real prospect, Adolph has tools, while the return was an up and down type and an NP. I had multiple texts from scouts that day asking what the Mets were thinking.

Zarathustra: Do you have any book recommendations for someone who has read (and enjoyed) just about everything Richard Russo has written?
Keith Law: I would say Ann Patchett’s work – she lacks his wry humor, but her novels are also intensely humanist, with well-developed characters and real storylines built around the most universal emotions and themes.

Klentack: Which player fits better – Harper (due to LH power) or Machado (3B more position of need) for Phillies??
Keith Law: Again, either. I’m not sure there’s a club that couldn’t use both. Maybe the Rockies?

Lance: I just read an interesting article about Will Smith. I had no idea how effective he was last year. With his salary and control years, is it possible the Giants could get more for trading him than they would for Bumgarner?
Keith Law: I think the glut of relievers on the market would make that hard.

John: Hey Keith, did you ever write a review for D.H. Lawrence’s The Rainbow? Was curious to see your thoughts.
Keith Law: Never read it. Didn’t enjoy Women in Love.

Phil: Is Adames good enough at SS to stay there until Franco arrives, or does he move earlier?
Keith Law: I’m not sure either is a long-term shortstop; the best SS in the system is probably Fox.

Chris: Would the Yankees have been better off signing Dozier to play 2B and move Torres to SS instead of signing Tulo?
Keith Law: In the abstract, sure, but it’s an $8.5 million difference.

Jim: Hey, Keith. So reports are Dozier has signed with the Nats for 1/$9M. Good deal (2018 was an aberration) or bad (2018 was the first step off the cliff)?
Keith Law: Overpay, but the Nats probably have the greatest benefit from each marginal win, so it may not be an overpay for them specifically. Hell, I’m glad at least one GM is out there to win some games.

HugoZ: Now that the Braves definitely have the #9 pick this year, should it be a position player?
Keith Law: It should be the best player.

Jim: What is your take on the Braves firing Bridges and Clark?
Keith Law: Change in direction for the department. I know both guys, respect them quite a bit, and expect they’ll be out of work for about 20 minutes.

Joe Random: why do you think Kingery struggled last year? were there signs he will bounce back this year?
Keith Law: I don’t think it helped that he had to play so much on the left side of the infield, for which he is ill-suited.

Mark: Do you think it’s fair to judge past player performance on metrics that are valued more today for hall of fame consideration or does context of the era matter?
Keith Law: Other than maybe framing, what has really changed? People who claim OBP wasn’t valued are talking out of their asses – everyone knew making outs was bad. It was undervalued on the market, or as a tool for projection, but we have stuff back to Branch Rickey’s time about the value of getting on base.

BMonster: Do you have a target date for releasing your top 100? Thanks!
Keith Law: I believe I announced this last chat – it starts January 28th.

Mark: Do you think Andujar is a good fit for the Padres? Obviously 3B is a need, and they can be patient on his defense. What kind of package would it take to get him?
Keith Law: No, I do not.

Joe Random: how do you think Pache’s bat will develop? can he develop average power?
Keith Law: He already has average power.

Justin: Are you anticipating a labor strike with the way free agency has gone the past 2 years?
Keith Law: I’m anticipating a difficult negotiation, but that doesn’t have to be a strike/lockout.

Jay from southern IL: The local media is really talking up Cardinals prospects Malcom Nunez, Jhon Torres, and Joerlin de lo Santos. All are very young and far away, but I was wondering if you had opinions on these three? (Looking to eliminate the home team bias)
Keith Law: Torres is on my Cardinals rankings, which again you’ll see later this month.

Alex: Hi Keith.My girlfriend and i are expecting our first kid.any book recommandations to help with whats ahead?thank you
Keith Law: The Happiest Baby on the Block.

Chris: Would you rather give Bryce Harper a 10-year, $320M deal with a couple of opts out or a six-year, $240M deal with one opt out?
Keith Law: The six-year deal.

Nate: Keith, I find it almost incomprehensible that the reporting of only a few teams being in legitimate conversations with Harper and Machado. 26 year old generational talents hitting free agency just doesn’t happen. Do you think there is a lot more going on behind the scenes or is the new CBA really having that large effect on the way teams are looking to spend money?
Keith Law: The luxury tax cum salary cap is obviously having an effect, but it feels … collusive.

Andy: How disappointed were you in the golden globes, and do you think the Oscars will follow suit?
Keith Law: Disappointed is the wrong word – it hardly affects me at all. I do like seeing good work rewarded, whether it’s films, books, TV, music, because that can drive more of an audience to that work, and thus give the artists in question more money and opportunities to create more.

Rick C: Is there anything to the Bridges and Clark firing, or is it really just one of those proverbial changes in direction?
Keith Law: That’s all it is.

Dustin: I’ve finally begun work on Smart Baseball and am about 2/3 of the way through it. Will the final section include a best practices manual for making my father- and brother-in-law read it so we can have some intelligent conversations about MLB for a change?
Keith Law: Um …. yyyyyyyes.

Nils: Sorry, with the link: https://gizmodo.com/how-cartographers-for-the-u-s-military-inadvertent…
Keith Law: Thanks!

Justin: will there be a write up on the Brewers signing of Grandal?
Keith Law: Probably not. Prospect writing time.

Dagoberto Campaneris: $2 million for Shelby Miller — is there upside for the Rangers there? Or is Miller just irretrievably broken after all the injuries the past few years?
Keith Law: Coming back from TJ, very reasonable risk.

Justin: Assuming the Pirates have the ability to add, say, $15 million on payroll, what FA seems like an obvious fit for them? I’m specifically thinking they should take a shot on Lowrie for SS for a year (until Cole Tucker can move him to 2b), but you’ve always liked Newman.
Keith Law: I also don’t think Lowrie can handle short.

Brent: Hi, Keith, hope you’re well. Do you have a sense yet if Corey Ray is likely to reappear in your top 100?
Keith Law: Definitely not.

LukeM: You are going to get a million questions about them so Just get it out of the way and tell us who you predict Harper and Machado end up with?
Keith Law: Nah. I’ve never liked those predictions – it would be based on so little. When I talk to GMs or other top execs I don’t waste time asking them about that stuff. Their time is valuable and my access to it is finite, so I’d rather ask them about stuff they might really want to discuss candidly.

Jason: Whats the deal with grandal signing a one year deal? I love it as a brewers fan but couldn’t he have gotten a better multi-year deal?
Keith Law: On talent, sure. The market is bad this winter, and I think his poor October and reputation for not working well with pitchers hurt his market further.
Keith Law: That reputation goes back to San Diego, FWIW. I don’t think this is just “Kershaw hates him” or something.

Jimmy: Would it be a stretch to see Madrigal in the majors this year?
Keith Law: No, but I think his ceiling is really low.

Jack : Are you rooting for a Harper/Robles/Soto outfield for the next 6 years? I honestly think it has all timer potential if Bryce returns.
Keith Law: That would be tremendous, but it feels unlikely?

Tom: I think that Trevor Bauer question might have been in reference to something Darren Rovell did.
Keith Law: Ah. I missed that. I have contacted employers when I’ve thought I was threatened, though. I think that’s justified. Calling for someone to be expelled, though … jeez.

Canadian Jesus: Why isn’t the ability to have a high walk rate considered a tool? It doesn’t really seem like something that should be lumped into the hit tool with bat-speed etc…?
Keith Law: It’s a skill, but in Toronto we made it a separate grade on the scouting report, and I think now pretty much all teams do that in some fashion.
Keith Law: The tools are physical, though. Your plate discipline is a skill.

Kyle: Given all the recent issues with Facebook, do you have any misgivings about using it? Do you utilitize it for personal use or only work? I try to use it less and less (deleted the app) but so many friends and family use it for planning events or keeping in touch that it’s hard to step away. Curious how you feel about it.
Keith Law: I definitely have those misgivings. I do still use it for my public page (@keithlawwriter) and to communicate with a small number of friends who use Messenger all the time.

Stephen: In your opinion: Top 3 front offices in MLB? Bottom 3 front offices? Would love to see that list expanded in longer form too.
Keith Law: Nope. Never doing that.

Bradley: Thoughts on the Stewart grievance? Seems weird that his camp would claim he didn’t receive the 40% offer when something like that would easily be proved/disproved. Which apparently the Braves did as Stewart has already reported lost the grievance. Was this just spite? or was there something more to this? Any connections to the recent firings?
Keith Law: Was that his camp’s claim? I hadn’t heard that aspect. I thought the claim was that the injury didn’t merit the 60% cut.

Paul: How can mlb discuss pace of play when the off season has been a total snooze fest? Do you think these slow winters hurt the sport?
Keith Law: Yes. The winter meetings used to be a great time for the sport to grab headlines in the dead of the offseason.

Derek: Isaac Paredes – do you think he has a good chance to hit his way up to AAA this summer and debut sometime in 2020? Thanks for chatting!
Keith Law: Yep, that all sounds right.

Ed: Who is someone in the White Sox minors besides Eloy to be excited about thia season?
Keith Law: Cease finished in AA; he could debut this year. Basabe or even Luis Gonzalez could surface too.

Luke: Thoughts on Keon Broxton? Seems like the only deal that the mets didnt get fleeced
Keith Law: His defensive numbers last year were extremely fluky in a tiny sample and he’s probably a .280-290 OBP guy. Whee.

Raphael: Hey Keith, there’s an uncomfortable situation in the UFC at the moment as Rachael Ostovich, who admiringly decided to still compete next weekend despite recent injuries she sustained at the hands of her husband, is on the same card as known domestic abuser Greg Hardy (UFC’s first event with ESPN). I’m not going to ask for your opinion on the sport or of Dana White and his decision, but rather, for your thoughts on Ostovich taking the “everyone deserves a second chance” stance in regards to Hardy and her husband. Should we let victims decide how we should view abusers, or is this attitude, even if it belongs to the victims, simply part of why domestic violence is such a big issue, in that the victims are unable to accept their abusers for the monsters that they truly are?
Keith Law: I know nothing of this situation, but will say 1) we should always listen to victims but 2) it’s very common for domestic violence victims to ‘stand up’ for their abusers, such as declining to press charges. It’s complicated. Supporting victims is the one thing we could probably all agree on.

Mac: How did all 30 teams come to the same conclusion at the same time that they prefer profits over winning? Somethings not right.
Keith Law: It’s kind of weird, right?

PD: Thoughts on triple restaurant week?
Keith Law: should I know this? I think Philly’s restaurant week is coming up, actually.

Tom: What are your expectations for Shane Bieber? Think last year’s peripherals largely carry over and we see the ERA come down a fair amount?
Keith Law: Always going to be a big HR guy.

LukeM: Which board game, that you played for the first time in 2018, was your favorite?
Keith Law: Everdell. I wrote up my top ten for the year. That covers new games, but there were pre-2018 games I played for the first time and loved, including Sagrada. I also finally got and played Clank! in the last week and it’s pretty fun, if a bit luck-driven.

Gary: Is Ramos at 2/18m a better deal for the Mets than the 4/60m Grandal supposedly turned down?
Keith Law: Definitely. My favorite Mets move of the winter.

Clete: You a Tres Barrera guy? On any of the Nat’s catcher prospects?
Keith Law: He’s an org guy for me.

Marcus: I hate the “back in my day” person, but I’m lost on this one. My wife is doing a long-term sub position, and despite students refusing to turn work in on time–or even do it–she has been instructed not to fail anyone for anything. I can understand passing a student who may not do great work but is trying, but just shoving the problem on to the next grade…does that make any sense?
Keith Law: Sounds like a systemic issue – probably they don’t want the hassle of forcing a student to repeat a level. I don’t think that helps the child at all.

Matt: Did you see the movie Eighth Grade?
Keith Law: Not yet.

Andres: I know this is a sports/books/games/music type of chat, but in a simple answer — who’s most to blame for the government shutdown?
Keith Law: The guy who loves Wall and can’t stop talking about Wall.

Sloan: If you were Machado, and money was equal, would you join the Phillies, Yankees or White Sox?
Keith Law: The money is never equal. It’s just not – there are different tax considerations for each market, costs of living, etc.

Brandon: Do you think the recent signings of Grandal and Dozier to 1 year deals means that A.J. Pollock could be heading for a similar deal?
Keith Law: I’d be floored.

Sloan: Thoughts on the Herrera signing?
Keith Law: Surprised a guy who missed half of last year with an injury got that deal.

Alan: Do you think that Peter Alonso will be able to overcome his inability to field to be successful at the MLB level.
Keith Law: I think he’s a 40 defender right now. Either that gets a lot better, or he goes to the AL to DH.

Chris: Best case scenario for Tulo is to somehow stay healthy til Didi returns and give them a dead cat bounce half season, right?
Keith Law: Yep. Aubrey Huff had one of those for about four months. Then he cratered.

Thomas: What of peak offense year would you expect from Willy Adames given his hit and power tool? Is he a .300/.375/.475 type or is that overselling his power?
Keith Law: I think that oversells his power, not his hit tool, although with the silly ball maybe not.

Ben : I am so down with your take on Life and Times of Michael K. Couldn’t get engaged with it. Especially in comparison to the Road, which my eyes were like magnetically attached to.
Keith Law: Yeah, I enjoy fabulist novels but didn’t connect with that one.

Anthony: Grandal an overpay at 1/$18.25M?
Keith Law: No.

Mitch: Do you feel it’s likely that Edgar makes the leap into the HOF this time around?
Keith Law: No doubt.

Patrick: Waiting to board a flight to Chicago. Any restaurant recommendations?
Keith Law: Monteverde! Publican, Little Goat, any of Rick Bayliss’ places.

HugoZ: Well yes, but is the best player at nine likely to be a position player?
Keith Law: I honestly don’t know that at this point. It’s probably 55/45 that the best player available is a pitcher, because teams up top tend to avoid HS pitchers, so they get pushed down a bit. It’s also just a bad college crop.

Jeff: Are you a believer in the revamped swing of Kevin Smith (Blue Jays)? Is he a possible regular in the bigs
Keith Law: No. Utility guy.

John: Will Ross Stripling be back in the rotation and pitching like a No.2/3 guy this year?
Keith Law: I think he’s a 5.

Phil: Will smith or Keibert Ruiz?
Keith Law: That’s not close – Ruiz is an elite prospect.

Jordan: Do you think Conforto can return to an all star type of hitter this season? Had a really promising second half. Feels like the Mets rushed him back from shoulder surgery.
Keith Law: Yes and I think that’s probably the reason.

seanj8: MLB wants to expand, so what two cities make the most sense to be awarded teams? Mine are Nashville and Montreal. Portland gets some consideration too.
Keith Law: Nashville is growing like mad, but even so, it would be the second smallest market in MLB. Indianapolis actually has more people (not that I’d put an MLB team there either). Only Milwaukee is smaller. Austin and San Antonio’s MSAs are both over 2 million, and they’re 80 miles apart from each other. That’s a lost opportunity there.

Jeff D.: If you’re Andrew Friedman and offer Harper a short term/high value deal which he rejects, what’s your next move to improve the team?
Keith Law: Offer him a longer deal.

Jerry: Who do you see being the Astros 4th and 5th starters by June? Assuming no injuries of course….
Keith Law: Josh James and Forrest Whitley.

Granfalloon: How much responsibility do you think you and other saber-oriented writers, who spent the last 20 years arguing online that free agent contracts were bloated and that teams were overpaying for veterans, bear for the current state of things where franchises are being cheap and not fairly compensating players? In retrospect, do you think y’all shouldn’t have been making those arguments?
Keith Law: That’s dumb for a few reasons, not least among which is that more analytical writers have talked up players like Harper and Machado, hitting free agency at 26, and their markets are thin too.

Green Book : I am a piece of shit movie that is racially bananas. What is happening and how am I winning things when movies like Beale Street, Favourite, Blackkklansman, and Roma are out there. (Granted this was still a poor year IMO on the film front).
Keith Law: I think it was a tremendous year for movies. I have 40 films ranked over Green Book.

Chris D: What do you think about Nathaniel Lowe? Will he carve out an above average MLB career?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Frank Thomas (not that one): What would your solution be to fix what has become a major problem in MLB as far as owners spending on MLB talent? Salary cap? Higher floor? Less service time before a player hits FA? Limiting lengths and values of max contracts a la the NBA?
Keith Law: Speed up free agency, raise the minimum salary for 0-2 guys.

Mat: Who’s your #1 Prospect for the June 2019 MLB Draft?
Keith Law: TBD. There isn’t a clear one yet.

Ricky: Favorite meal to make during the week when you are tight on time?
Keith Law: You can spatchcock and roast an entire chicken in about 45 minutes. I also like to do simple chicken cutlets – sometimes just panko breading, sometimes adding sesame seeds and maybe some chopped sunflower seeds – as a main dish because they scale well and reheat nicely in the oven.

Mark: Would you ever consider writing a book about your experience as a GM? I think it would be very fun to read about trades, player development, constructing a team, etc…
Keith Law: I’d love to, but I’d need to be a GM first.

Sean: I’m thinking now is the time to go all in if I’m running the brewers. So close last year, why not trade for Bumgarner and sign Keuchel?
Keith Law: Don’t think they need two starters – they have Burnes and Woodruff, both good, both ready for the rotation.

Sean: Hi, Keith. Thank you for doing these and I hope all is well. I wanted to get your opinion on what the Padres should do this offseason. Stand pat? Focus on 2020? Go after an Ace? I still think we’re a year away and would hate to see us make another move like the Hosmer signing of a year ago.
Keith Law: Focus on 2020, try to dump one of Myers or Hosmer for a bad contract at another position.

Econ: Is there a space somewhere in between where “players deserve more” and “overpaying marginal players is a bad idea” that can exist?
Keith Law: The idea of overpaying free agents also oversimplifies the part about how the value of a marginal win varies by team. An extra win for the Nationals, who are in a decent-sized market and really should be a playoff team, is worth more than the same extra win is to the Padres, who are not contenders, or even the Reds, who need to pick up maybe ten or more wins to become contenders.

Everett L: Did Nico Hoerner change how you rate him based on his play in the AFL?
Keith Law: No. I like to watch and think about players there, but try not to make dramatic changes to evaluations off that look because it’s not normal minor league play.

AGirlHasNoName: Ok, I have a crystal ball, if the Cubs cut Russell they win 91 games and miss the playoffs, if they keep him they win 94 and make the playoffs. As a fan, do you still want them to cut him? Is there a point where the cost isn’t worth the benefit?
Keith Law: Then he’s more than worth his salary – the playoff berth is worth a lot more than the marginal $6.5 million or so to keep him. It becomes a moral decision. I personally would not employ a player who did what he did, such as choking his wife (which, I’ve mentioned many times before, is a major precursor to homicide).

Sean: Giants looking at signing potentially trading Panik and signing LeMahieu, that would be a net positive IMO. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Depends on what you get for Panik.

TomBruno23: If Bumgarner is available, I think the Cardinals should be all over that. Fits in well with their older player/short term contract roster and wouldn’t/shouldn’t cost too much in terms of a trade. Dakota Hudson for a year of Bumgarner?
Keith Law: Hudson’s probably a reliever so I’d do it.

Roma : I think I *might* be the easiest choice for Best Picture in the last 10 years. This is like Mike Trout competing against Mike Moustakas, Jean Segura, and a replacement level player who is also racist.
Keith Law: Yes, but I still think A Star is Born wins.
Keith Law: I’d vote for Roma among the likely nominees.

Canadian Jesus: I get your answer, but if plate discipline is a skill shouldn’t fielding be classed as a skill as well? There is obviously way more to fielding than just range or loose hips.
Keith Law: You’re being a little pedantic here, but also, much of fielding is determined by physical skill.

LukeM: Who is a comparable player to Nolan Gorman? Tons of power but strikeouts are a concern. Is a Joey Gallo or Khris Davis comparison fair?
Keith Law: I like him more than I ever liked Davis as a prospect. I think Gorman will hit a bit more than Gallo. Gallo has the most raw power I’ve ever seen on a prospect.

Adam: Is there any logic to the Padres signing Hosmer to that big deal last year and now going back to penny pinching mode? I get that Hosmer contract was a mistake but cant deter you from making any other big financial decisions.
Keith Law: Are they pinching pennies or just avoiding a second mistake?

Spiny Norman: Dinsdale?
Keith Law: He’s nailed to the coffee table.

Andrew Friedman: Who would you rather trade…Verdugo or Ruiz/Smith
Keith Law: Verdugo. I think he’s good but easier to replace than Ruiz.

Ridley Kemp: Thank you for your tireless…well, it’s probably pretty tiring…rebuttal of the antivaxxers. The real danger they represent needs answering, but it can’t be fun.

Have you had a chance to read Michael Pollan’s How To Change Your Mind? I picked it up when my therapist told me she was reading it for the third time. As a non-user of controlled substances, I still found it fascinating and I learned more about the the brain and depression treatments than I have anywhere else.
Keith Law: I haven’t. I did just finish Leonard Mlodinow’s Elastic (as an audiobook), about the power of ‘flexible thinking,’ which also gets into a lot of how we come to conclusions and refuse to change them, often because our brains don’t even accept other possible interpretations or evidence.

Noah Syndergaard: We’re going to get Biden vs. Warren as a sequel to Clinton vs. Bernie, aren’t we? Team Trump would love that.
Keith Law: Biden needs to step aside, now. Next generation, please.

Daniel: Considering the recent reports of MLB’s revenues, are there any competitive teams that can reasonably justify not being willing to spend above the tax? I’m a Braves fan, and considering those revenue reports, and the whole Cobb County/SunTrust Park thing, I really don’t understand why they’re not in on Harper. (Maybe they are, and AA is just really good at keeping it out of the media?)
Keith Law: I think that’s corporate ownership telling them not to spend.

Cjc: Thoughts on Chance Adams having a bounce-back year as a starter? Or is he just an up and down reliever?
Keith Law: Reliever only.

Dan: Hi Keith – thanks for all your work. With Kopech out this year and some important pieces that will at least begin the year in the minors, is 2020 a realistic expectation for the White Sox to start contending for their division? I’ll be honest, I have concerns with the development of Giolitto/Moncada/Rodon and others, and am afraid of the rebuild not panning out.
Keith Law: That division is weak enough that they should be doing what they’re doing – trying to go get a big star now, figuring he’ll be there for the next 4-5 years as the kids arrive and the team gets really good.

Matt W: So wait, do the Mets really not scout below full season ball?
Keith Law: That is correct.

Ben: Keith, you’ve been high on Willi Castro for a little while. But, others in the industry label him as a likely utilityman/fringe regular. Do you think he can be the Tiger’s answer at SS?
Keith Law: I do. High IQ guy, feel to hit, absolutely has to get stronger.

Biff: Do you have any insight into the slow development/ lack of improvement of Moniak ?
Keith Law: Swing issues, possible the team overrated the makeup.
Keith Law: Also, when I’ve seen him, he’s been unable to recognize spin.

Pat D: Since we expect the various veterans committees to make bad choices, which would be “worse”: McGriff getting in via committee (I think we all expect him to) or Vizquel getting in via BBWAA?
Keith Law: The committee’s picks nearly always suck. Vizquel getting in would be a real indictment of the BBWAA even as the electorate has been getting smarter.

Mark: Should cardinals offer Keuchel 1 year at 23M?
Keith Law: Shouldn’t every contender offer him that?

Archie: Any chance the Brewers give up Burnes or Hiura in a deal for Bumgarner?
Keith Law: No. That would be really stupid, and they’re not stupid.

BK: Does Brandon Marsh have any “star” upside?
Keith Law: yes.

JJ: what kind of pro does Kyler Murray project to be?
Keith Law: Enormous range of outcomes. Could make some All-Star teams. Could stall in AA. The guy is 1000 or so at bats behind where he should be at this age.
Keith Law: Maybe 800. You get the point.

Chris : Wouldn’t you rather have Plawecki as a back-up at a$1.5M than d’Arnaud at $4M?
Keith Law: Yes, because d’Arnaud is made of glass.

john: why do minor leaguers get paid so little??
Keith Law: Because MLB slipped a clause into the GOP Tax Bill from 2017 that protected them.

Concerned Teacher: You mentioned in a previous chat not having heard of the vaping company named Juul. I am a high school teacher and a parent I think you should familiarize yourself with them. Kids are entering high school already hopelessly hooked on nicotine because of these Juuls, which look very similar to a USB drive. They were the fastest start up company ever to reach $10B in.
Keith Law: I have now, of course. The Ringer called them a scam for Big Tobacco in a post today. Vile.

EG: Bryce harper will finish the year ranked top _____ in fWAR.
Keith Law: Ten.

Tony B: Is it better to vote for someone you view as a leader and can lead to unity in the nation or someone who you agree with their political views?
Keith Law: why not both girl dot gif

Aaron: Just curious, considering the options at most minor league ballparks, Do you ever eat at a stadium and if so what?
Keith Law: Almost never.

Joe: In general, I’m not a fan of relievers in the Hall of Fame. But if you go by the standards set by the guys already in, Wagner is a Hall of Famer, right? There are 7 pitchers who were primarily relievers in the HOF right now (including Smith), and I think it’s pretty easy to argue Wagner was more dominant than at least 3-4 of them. He just didn’t stick around a few more years and compile saves at the end of his career.
Keith Law: Wagner is better than Smith and probably better than Hoffman. I think he’ll sneak in.

Greg: Keith- Re: Kyler Murray. There’s been some argument that since he plays QB, and since the rules these days protect QBs to a nearly ridiculous degree, the risk to him is much less than if he played a different position. Jeff Samardzija playing baseball over being a tight end made sense, but QB is protected so much more than even two years ago. At this point if he were a catcher I think he’d take more foul balls of the head than he’d take hits to the head as a QB. I originally thought it was a bo-brainer to pick baseball for the reasons you mentioned, but the more I watch football and every roughing the passer penalty, it’s tough to imagine he’d rather ride buses for 4-5 years that be a starting QB in the NFL in 8 months.
Keith Law: It takes just one hit, even an illegal one, to wreck a guy’s life. And he’s small.

Sean: Did you happen to see Sean Doolittle’s thread on twitter regarding ways to improve the game? I think it’s great to see him interacting with fans directly, a lot of good points were made. Unlike Bauer, he seems to have a good head on his shoulders.
Keith Law: He’s one of the best humans in the sport and we are very fortunate to have him and Eireann as ambassadors for the game in general and for just being good, kind people.

Bob: Do you think Faedo can get back to a mid-rotation projection or is he more of a 4/5 type?
Keith Law: Probably reliever.

Andy: What do you think about the movie vice?
Keith Law: I’ll see it this weekend. Tried to see it Tuesday night but the showing was nearly sold out and I will not sit in the front row.

Michael: What did you think of Isle of Dogs?
Keith Law: My review.

Dan: What does the future hold for Sean Reid-Foley? He seemed likely to be in the opening day rotation but that was before they added Shoemaker and Richard to the mix.
Keith Law: Needs a better pitch for LHB or he’s not a starter.

Mark: Future value of Keston Hiura? Can he turn into a Daniel Murphy type player (high avg which helps the power play up, mediocre D)?
Keith Law: RHB so he won’t have the platoon issues.

Dell: Any chance Caleb Ferguson gets another shot to start? And are you out on Urias?
Keith Law: I’m not out on any Uriases that I can think of. If you mean Julio, we are in uncharted waters for someone with that injury.

Dan: Could you see Ronny Mauricio as a guy who could see a catastrophic rise in the rankings over the next 2-3 years?
Keith Law: That’s an interesting choice of adjectives there. He’s got enormous potential, though.

Bob: Any good books to help with anxiety?
Keith Law: Fully Present is my go-to recommendation.

Dr. Bob: What would happen if an MLB team bucked the trend and doubled the salaries of their minor league players?
Keith Law: A very angry phone call from Park Avenue.

Jake Lawson: Just FYI, if you ever check out the Round Rock Express, there’s a Salt Like BBQ in the parking lot. It’s not Franklin’s or Mickelthwait, but it’s miles ahead of most ballpark food.
Keith Law: I’ve actually been to that one. It was solid. Probably a 50.

Lou: Aside from Ruiz and Verdugo, have the Dodgers drained most of their elite talent from the farm?
Keith Law: No.

Rahn: I ask you this every offseason so here goes: Who is one Pirates prospect who most intrigues you and whose development you’ll be tracking closely?
Keith Law: Org reports run the week of February 4th.

Kacey: If a hs player was unknown and then hit their growth spurt and had an incredible year with their HS team, would they likely slip through the cracks because they aren’t known via their travel team?
Keith Law: No, unless he were in some really remote place that is generally undercovered – North Dakota, Alaska, something like that.

Archie: Is Billy Wagner the best small college player you have ever seen?
Keith Law: Dunno, Alex Bregman was a great small college player. He’s only about 5’8″.

Jim: How do you “speed up free agency”? Front offices would sign off on a deadline to signing players? How does that work?
Keith Law: A deadline would help, yes.

Bob: One report I’ve read on Kelenic warns he has some “tweener warning signs” in his profile. Is something you’d agree with?
Keith Law: No. Sounds like a bad source.

Danny: Do you think Deivi Garcia will be a starter and if not, can he be a set up or closer type?
Keith Law: Starter.

Dave: Did you do a review of into the Spider-Verse? Seemed to hate it during the Globes.
Keith Law: I didn’t review that or the two Disney entries. I found Spider-Verse cliched and unbelievably violent for a movie aimed at kids. It had a few laughs (Spider-Ham was legitimately funny). The resolution really didn’t do enough for the Miles character, either.

LukeM: Any thoughts on Malcolm Nunez for the Cardinals. Saw an article showing his ridiculous wRC+ this past year and he looks really promising. I know he’s super young and a long ways off but it’s fun to look for potential future superstars.
Keith Law: Do not use wRC+ to evaluate prospects. And Nunez went into the DSL with more real game experience than most of the competition. That’s not to say he’s a zero, but that this is serious stat-line scouting.

Mark: Did you do voices when you used to read to your daughter ?
Keith Law: Always. After a few books she’d demand it.

SpG: Unbelievably Violent? 80’a Kids were raised on Predator & Robocop, man… it was a love letter to comic book readers.
Keith Law: That doesn’t make it any less violent. And violence is a weak way to write your superhero story.

Kacey: When did white supremacist become an offensive term?
Keith Law: When did Rep. King’s party become comfortable with white supremacists in its house?

Mark: Just curious, given your love of gaming, have you ever played Magic: The Gathering? I know Longenhagen is a fan, and they’ve been making a push into eSports recently with their new Arena product.
Keith Law: No – not interested in CCGs as a genre.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – back to writeups for now. Thank you as always for reading and bearing with me this month. Still more calls to make and words to write. I promise to give you the best words!

Keith Law: I wish the world was flat like the old days. Klawchat.

Seth: Andrew Vaughn likely to be the first 1b only prospect to be drafted in the top 5 in a long time? If so, is it a reflection on his skills or a weaker draft class?
Keith Law: Possible, not likely. A reflection on the draft class either way.

Nick: Doesn’t it kind of feel like the Cubs are spiraling downwards towards mediocrity ?
Keith Law: No.

J: Trying to sift through the numerous Padres’ pitching prospects. Do you see Paddack, Quantrill, or Allen making any dent in 2019? Is Quantrill just an org guy at this point, or room for redemption?
Keith Law: Paddack for sure. The others possibly. Q is more than an org guy, but he’s also regressed a good bit since the first summer.

J: Framber Valdez. Good enough to start the season in Astros’ rotation?
Keith Law: I’d say probably not, since they’re contenders.

Trevor: Are you in favor of expansion and would it help solve the slow free agent market?
Keith Law: Yes, and probably not.

Ted: Klaw,

What’s your opinion on how we should view movies, music, etc. that was made during times when certain words or actions were, for lack of a better term, more “acceptable”? I was thinking about your recent comments about the Ten Years After song this past weekend when “Money for Nothing” came on the radio, which also infamously includes a homophobic slur. Mark Knopfler has always claimed he got the lyrics from a time he was in a New York appliance store and overheard a delivery worker making comments about a video on MTV (which is also why the characters in the video are dressed that way), and thus is taking poetic license. Of course, no one in their right mind would write those lyrics today. But it seems that if you view a lot of art made 30 or 50 or 200 years ago through the prism of current societal norms, much of it will appear racist, homophobic and misogynist. After all, it wasn’t that long ago when people would commonly say “that’s gay” to mean they thought something was stupid.
Keith Law: I think understanding the context of the objectionable language or ideas is important. For example, in that song, Knopfler is mocking the speaker (who is trying to mock musicians like Knopfler), for his overall attitude and for assuming that a singer with one earring is gay. I hate the word, but have no objection to art that repeats the word in a manner that denigrates someone using it. Compare that to the Scarlet Pimpernel, a novel I really enjoyed as a reader, but one that uses a particularly bad anti-Semitic stereotype for a central character. It’s a blast to read, but when it came up as a possible book choice in my daughter’s curriculum this year, I asked the teacher to consider removing it.

Joe: What’s your opinion of the Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez? Is he getting any consideration for your top 100 or is it too soon? Do you think he has superstar potential?
Keith Law: Nowhere close to top 100 yet.

Mo: What happened to Shane Baz last year? Has his stock dropped dramatically?
Keith Law: No. Did something happen? I can’t even think of why you’d ask about his stock dropping.

Lance: Do you think Kyle Wright will throw significant innings for the Braves this season? It’s hard to project anything for them with the glut of high-upside SP prospects they possess.
Keith Law: As you said, it’s hard to project innings totals for their arms. I would guess, based on very little but my own outside sense, that he doesn’t throw much for them unless they suffer multiple injuries or trade at least two guys ahead of him in the queue.

Lonnie: Javier Baez repeating his 2018 season – buying or selling?
Keith Law: Buying. You didn’t say when; I am buying that he can have that season again.

Yong: What is your read on Adalberto Mondesi? Do you think he’s close to the player he was in the second half last year, or was that an abberation?
Keith Law: I think that’s an aberration, boosted by the juiced MLB ball.

waks: sorry, long q. so i’m a labor advocate (and union councilor, to boot), and i’ve long thought about the power that the MLBPA has, while recognizing that it’s done a fair amount short-sighted things. One of the things i can’t stop thinking about however, is how bizarre it is that average fans are likely to side with billionaire owners over “greedy” millionaire players (despite the fact that people come to see those guys play, not take a tour of the facility). How can the MLBPA combat this? Is it even worth combating it?
Keith Law: They’ve never taken it seriously enough, going back to when I was a kid. I do think it’s worth combating it, and that it would help if the PA would align itself with unions in general – something they’ve eschewed in the past, with players crossing picket lines for other unions.

Dana: If you’re the Yankees, are you comfortable going into Spring Training with Luke Voit and Greg Bird as 1B options?
Keith Law: No.

Rodney: Is there any chance Richard Urena becomes an everyday player? Age and scouting the stat line make it seem like a possibility, but there are plenty of red flags.
Keith Law: Very unlikely.

Fred: Is Kyle Lewis regaining top 100 status simply a matter of putting together a healthy, productive season, or has he fallen further than that?
Keith Law: Not being flippant, but let’s see a healthy, productive season, and then discuss it. We have no idea at this point what such a season would even look like for him.

Ron: HI Keith- The Cruz signing a decent deal? Get the bat if there is something left and maybe an influence on Sano etc? Money wasn’t bad and maybe has a year left in the tank? Your thoughts? Thanks!
Keith Law: Yep, very good deal. Twins are quietly building a legitimate threat to Cleveland.

Eric H.: Daniel Norris has been a mix of unhealthy and ineffective since joining the Tigers. Any realistic chance he regains his form?
Keith Law: I think it’s all about health and velocity, and those two are probably connected. With a plus FB, he’s a GUY. With a slightly below-average FB, he’s more like a middle reliever or maybe a long man.

Jim L: Why didn’t Trump ask Mexico for ONLY $5 billion to build the wall?
Keith Law: Now Mexico is going to pay for it via tariffs. Or something. Is the swamp drained yet?

Moe Mentum: Any rational explanation for Harold Baines beating Edgar Martinez to Cooperstown?
Keith Law: Do you consider corruption a rational explanation? As they say in White Christmas, it’s not good, but it’s a reason.

Rhys: HNY Keith. Do you see Daniel Murphy playing more than 100 games this season at 1B and if so, might that mean the Rockies are betting on Brendan Rodgers seizing the 2B job? What are realistic projections for each if so?
Keith Law: I don’t get that signing at all. Murphy at 1b is barely worth the roster spot, and he can’t play 2b any more. To give him that kind of guaranteed money seemed like extremely wishful thinking.

Jack SF: HNY Keith! Is the Brantley acquisition a foreshadowing of Tucker’s exit from Houston? Traded for Realmuto? Is there Yelich potential there with Tucker in Miami?
Keith Law: I like Tucker but don’t think this means Tucker is getting traded.

Sweeney: At what point do strikeouts become so much of a problem that teams begin preaching about making contact and using the whole field over hitting the ball in the air to the pull side? When teams are averaging 12 ks per game? 15? 17?
Keith Law: Some teams are already doing that, but we haven’t reached an inflection point where the contact-oriented approach is more valuable.

Henry: Hi Keith, any thoughts on Jeff Passan joining ESPN. Seems like a nice addition. Keep up the great work!
Keith Law: I’m thrilled. Jeff is great at his job and I’ve been friends with him for a long time now. He also knows his KC barbecue.

Moe Mentum: What non-academic advice would you give college freshmen, in order to maximize their experience while in school?
Keith Law: This might be more like academic advice but if I could do it over again, I’d focus on taking classes on things I loved, or was truly interested in, rather than trying to figure out what classes or major would be the most valuable. The idea that you should enjoy your social life and hate your academic life is just dumb. (Not that my alma mater had a great social life, or that I was anywhere ready to enjoy one if it did.)

Chris: Do you like eating at restaurants or cooking more?
Keith Law: Eating out. Then I don’t have to clean. It gets expensive, though.

Mark: What chance do you think Donaldson has of posting at least 5 WAR this year?
Keith Law: I’d bet the under, but the odds are not zero.

Ryan: keith, huge braves fan, but wondering why they havn’t done more, price just to high for AA?
Keith Law: It’s January 3rd. Lots of offseason left.

Nick: What do you make of reports like the White Sox won’t go over 7 years for Harper/Machado? Is that just posturing to control the price?
Keith Law: I do not believe those reports.

BeefLoaf: Can you please rank Rick Hahn 1-30 (1 being the best) out of current MLB GM’s
Keith Law: I have never ranked GMs and I’m never going to do so.

Vinny : Are the Padres actually going to make a big trade this year?
Keith Law: Why should they unless it’s a good one? They’re going to be good, maybe as soon as 2020. Do you want them to trade Turner and Ross for Wil Myers and stuff again?

Ron: Fantasy baseball question – who has the best 2019 season out of beiber, toussaint, kikuchi, or Cahill?
Keith Law: No idea – I haven’t played fantasy baseball in almost 20 years now.

Juwan: If you were the GM of the Nats, would you prioritize bringing Harper back, or focus on a Rendon extension?
Keith Law: Love Harper but I think extending Rendon and using any remaining cash this winter to upgrade 2b and the back of the rotation would be the better move to contend in 2019.

Matt: So how does the shutdown end? The Dems can’t cave because if they do, the GOP will always resort to shutting down the government until they get what they want. On the other hand, Trump is a 4 year old child with narcissistic personality disorder. He doesn’t have the mental capacity to “take a loss” even if it’s for the good the country.
Keith Law: I have wondered this myself – if the GOP would eventually rebel against Trump enough to reopen the government, for the good of the people who actually voted for them.

Sheng: Does Harper have the higher upside while Machado the higher floor? Would it make sense for a team to offer a 2 year deal worth 100m? And would either think of accepting such an offer?
Keith Law: Machado has the higher floor; I don’t know that I agree either has a clearly higher upside; and I can’t imagine either player accepting an offer that short when they’re likely to get 8+ years and could end up at 10/$300MM.

Juwan: Are you still as high on Victor Robles as you once were? Still think the McCutchen comp fits?
Keith Law: Yes, maybe yes, could be more defense and a shade less power.

Michael: Why did you make a tweet slamming clickbait rumors/sources, then like a tweet a few hours later claiming that Harper is going to sign with the Cubs, and then block people who called you out for the hypocrisy?
Keith Law: Because that’s not hypocrisy, a word that people like to use on twitter without knowing what it means (or what the Like function is). And the tweet in question, from my pal Brett over at Bleacher Nation, did not claim Harper was going to sign with the Cubs or anything close to it, so the single person I blocked was, to use the technical term, utterly full of shit, as are you.

Steve: Belt for Conforto, who says no?
Keith Law: The Mets should.

Jim: Thanks for the chats. Would Verdugo, Maeda and a bullpen arm be a fair return for Kluber?
Keith Law: No.

James : aside from Vlad Jr., who’s the one prospect you think will come up and have a strong 2019 year?
Keith Law: Robles. Eloy. Whitley. I could see Tatis Jr spending half the year in the majors and producing.

Dan: Curious on your thoughts of JP Crawford as a hitter. Think the move to SEA might help him to concentrate on hitting gap to gap, instead of the “long ball” mentality? Thank you and happy 2019!
Keith Law: I think it’s more about him than the ballpark – he has to accept the type of hitter he is, not try to hit for power, and frankly to be more aggressive in all aspects of the game: ambushing good pitches to hit when he’s ahead, running out key groundballs, getting after balls in the field. He has superstar ability but for reasons I don’t understand his visible effort level was not there last year.

Justin R: When we can expect your 2019 prospects columns to hit?
Keith Law: The week of January 28th. I guess I should start writing those.

Justin R: Just bought the Smart Baseball audiobook…did I make the right call or should I have gone dead tree?
Keith Law: I’m just happy you’re reading it in any format.

Thomas: Can we expect book #2 any time soon?
Keith Law: April 2020.

James: Hey Keith. Great HOF ballot, awesome to see Andruw get your vote. Who else would you have included if allowed unlimited votes?
Keith Law: I listed those in the column on my ballot.

Jeff: Keith – It seems the Dodgers involvement in additional trades is tied, at least in some way, to Harper’s decision. Do you agree? If so, are there any smaller moves you see a positives to help them finally get over the hump?
Keith Law: I do not agree – I don’t know for sure that they’re on him.

Rell: Do you ever gamble on baseball
Keith Law: No.

Kevin: Do you see anything with Soroka’s delivery that would suggest long term shoulder issues?
Keith Law: I don’t love it, the low slot/arm path seems to put a little stress on the shoulder, but 1) I don’t think it’s a huge red flag and 2) some guys have bad deliveries and stay healthy anyway, Chris Sale being the most obvious example.

Steeeeve: Why was Harper’s defense so bad last year?
Keith Law: Mike Petriello at MLB did a great piece where he looked at all of Harper’s key ‘plays not made.’ I got the sense this was a deliberate move by Harper to not sacrifice his body for defense as much as he had in previous years, perhaps (I’m inferring here) to ensure he stayed healthy all year for free agency. I don’t think he was actually a worse defender by skill.

Mo: Re: Baz, I was basing it on his poor results in the second half, being shipped to Tampa as a PTBNL, and him being excluded from the Rays top 10 on BA
Keith Law: Yeah, still not seeing it. He only made 12 starts, all in short-season, and his best outings came in his second half. Being traded isn’t a marker against a player. I don’t write for BA and can’t explain anything about their lists.

Larry: Who has more helium potential- Vientos or Mauricio?
Keith Law: Mauricio has the higher ceiling, Vientos might do the most this year to improve fans’ awareness/perception of him.

Anthony: You ever watch Silence of the Lambs? Thoughts if you have?
Keith Law: Nope, nor do I plan to.

TP: What is the rationale behind having a different ball in MLB and MiLB? How does that impact player evaluations?
Keith Law: There is no rationale – MLB doesn’t even want to admit there is a difference – and IMO it screws up attempts to grade power.

Andrew: Thoughts on Bobby Abreu as a HoF candidate when he appears on the ballot with Jeter?
Keith Law: He’ll be below the line for me.

Concerned Seattle Fan: Is most of Jarred Kelenic value tied into his defensive development? His hit tool seems to be intact but can he become a 25-25 type player?
Keith Law: No, and yes.

Kretin: Is Chris Rodriguez a sleeper prospect this year if healthy?
Keith Law: He was top 100 for me before he got hurt so I don’t think he could be a true ‘sleeper’ this soon.

Fred: Who do you prefer between Anthony Kay and Grant Holmes?
Keith Law: Anthony Kay.

Sean : Favorite movie last year?
Keith Law: Burning. My top ten, as of 12/31, is here.

Kyle: What does Braxton Garrett need to do in your mind to have a “good” year?
Keith Law: Just be healthy.

Matt: Is Kelenic now the Marineers best prospect? Do you think he can hit 25-30 homers in safeco?
Keith Law: It’s probably Sheffield, then Kelenic and Dunn.

JD: Does Charterstone work well as a two-player game?
Keith Law: Yes. You can also use “automa” as neutral players if you want to keep it from becoming too simple for the two of you to rack up goods/points.

don’t wear pearls: HOF induction is the game’s highest honor. If stealing numbers is stealing money, nobody stole more than Bonds and Clemens on their respective sides of the ball.
Keith Law: Well, I don’t know how you steal numbers, nor do I see how this somehow equates to stealing money. If you figure out who stole i, let me know, because for years I’ve been wondering if I just imagined it.

Amy: $400mil to Harper or spread around to Pollack, Kimbrell, Keuchel and more?
Keith Law: Depends on the team, but the latter (excluding Kimbrel, who looks like a time bomb to me) makes more sense.

Luis Rengifo: How do you view my breakout season last year? Has my prospect status risen?
Keith Law: A prospect now, maybe a utility guy, but a big rise from the time of the trade.

Zirinsky: Tulo signing: assuming the Yanks are quick to dump him if he can’t play/isn’t healthy, it’s a decent move right?
Keith Law: Eh. Lot of people seem to be assuming he’ll either be fine, or they’ll just cut him in March. One, I don’t buy that he’ll be fine after almost two years of not playing due to injury, a long history of injury issues before that, and declining defensive skill. Two, I don’t believe they’ll just cut him – more likely he pulls an Alomar and just quits mid-game in March – since he’s a respected veteran and they’ll love his clubhouse presence yata yata. And three, having him precludes bringing in another option for the same role as SS fill-in until Didi returns (or 2B fill-in with Gleyber at SS). It is a gamble, with some risk and some small reward.

Paella Pete: Seems fair to say that you were more excited about the prospect of Chaim Bloom becoming Mets GM than any of the other options… What do you think so far of the job BVW has done?
Keith Law: Bloom was the best choice, but they picked the guy who promised he could contend in 2019. So far BVW has traded the team’s top two prospects for insufficient return, overpaid for a reliever (with a DV history), and signed a catcher to a good deal.

Rhys: If you’re a Phils fan, should you be rooting for Middleton and Co. to spend stupid money on Machado over Harper? I get that Machado plays IF, (likely 3B with the Phils) makes consistent hard contact, but I get the feeling the long term effect is better with Harper on this team. Thoughts?
Keith Law: You should be happy with either guy – the team will be better, likely a contender, if they land either one. The fear should be that they land neither despite having the resources to sign one.

JD: Is Wander Franco the Next Huge Thing, or just the buzziest guy at the moment?
Keith Law: He’s a potential star. I wrote in August that he looks like the next teenaged big leaguer.

Johnny LaRue: Where would you place a new franchise outside of the U.S. mainland, were it up to you?
Keith Law: I don’t think such an option exists. As much as I’d love to see a team in Havana, there really isn’t a market right now in Latin America that has the population, the disposable income, enough security for players, and the proximity to the US to work.
Keith Law: San Juan would be the best bet, IMO, but the island’s economy is not in good shape.

Mark: Do you think Miguel Andujar sticks at third?
Keith Law: I think he can work his way to average in time, but I doubt the Yankees give him that much rope.

Anthony: Does Shed Long profile as a regular? What should the Reds do with Gennett, either now or after the season?
Keith Law: He doesn’t. Minus defender at 2b.

Johnny (Woburn): Hey Keith, Happy New Year! Do you see the Red Sox making any significant moves ahead of the season? Also, what kind of player do you see Dalbec becoming? Thanks!
Keith Law: No idea what moves they might be planning. Dalbec has made himself a plus defender and it’s huge raw power, but I don’t think we’ve ever seen a player strike out this often at his age and then become a regular in the majors.

Z: I got in an argument with a family member, curious to hear your thoughts. Do you view someone that is transgender as someone with a mental illness/disorder (gender dysphoria)?
Keith Law: The American Psychiatric Association’s position on this is ‘no.’ Gender dysphoria refers to the emotional distress resulting from the incongruence of one’s perceived gender and one’s biological sex, not from the difference itself. (And, this should be obvious, I also do not view having a mental illness or disorder as a failing any more than I’d view having a physical illness or disorder as one.)

Greg: Worse HoF vote- Harold Baines or Def Leppard? I feel like Leppard at least had a higher peak.
Keith Law: Yeah, plus the RnR Hall has always had a populist bent.

Matt: Is that guy that made the comments about Sosa gonna be held accountable by the Hall of Fame? (Lose his vote)
Keith Law: I doubt it.

Biff: Any recent Philly dining adventures you’d like to share?
Keith Law: I’ve been planning to do a list of my favorites this month since I’ve been here a while. Cheu in Fishtown was tremendous. Also had a great if pricey meal at Fork last weekend.

Patrick: Is it the responsibility of the Tweeter to keep in mind that some readers will be too lazy/biased/clueless to understand sarcasm, or should we just ignore those folks and carry on?
Keith Law: I have enough followers that no matter how I word something, there will be at least a few people who misinterpret it, inadvertently or deliberately.

John o: Your thoughts on the Orioles and Elias staff so far? Hyde?
Keith Law: So far, very good.

Adam: “Then I could travel just by folding a map.” Happy New Year, Keith! If the Phillies don’t land Harper or Machado, how do they salvage the offseason? Do they hold tight and wait for the trade deadline or next year when someone like Arenado is available, or are there other moves to make?
Keith Law: They could follow Amy’s suggestion above of Pollock & Keuchel.

John: I am a loyal Democrat and I don’t like Elizabeth Warren. I think she unlikable for a number of reasons—all of them unrelated to her sex. I’d also point out that most politicians are unlikable for various and legitimate reasons. You believe that any opinion contrary to yours must be linked to some bias of sex or race. Your ID politics keeps you from fully understanding people or the world around you.
Keith Law: I do not believe any such thing. I do believe that the “unlikable” tag applies to women in positions of power far more often than it does to men, and my belief is based on actual research, as opposed to yours.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Recently got into cooking as I moved into a place with my girlfriend. Got the Anova sous vide you rec, food processor, few books, etc. Any go-to meals that you family loves? Preferably something not remarkably hard.
Keith Law: The sous vide chicken thighs on serious eats are a huge hit here.

Arty23: Do you think the Miller deal was a reasonable gamble for the Cardinals or an overpay?
Keith Law: Good gamble for them.

JR: you have about 6 weeks to get in the best shape of your life before spring training starts. Kidding aside, how much are you praying Bartolo signs this winter so there is still one MLBer older than you?
Keith Law: He’s fun. I definitely want him in MLB as long as he can hack it.

waks: Follow-up to the labor union thing. I think you’re absolutely right re: PA aligning publicly with other unions to show power of organized labor. I think movie actors ought to as well – and some have, like John Goodman stumping against Right to Work laws in Missouri this past summer. If unionized athletes and entertainers would take more of a vocal role, it would go a long way towards winning a PR war.
And hey, the MLBPA should want the piano tuners to argue against the MLB luxury tax.
Keith Law: The MLBPA – I think this is true of the NFL too – has long positioned itself as a union apart from others, and it’s easy to see why since they are arguing over a different magnitude of pay than just about every other union. The principles at stake are the same, however, and they’ve relinquished the most obvious source of public support for their efforts as a result.

JD: Kristian Robinson in Dbacks system – anyone being hyped more right now from someone that was not close to top 100 last year?
Keith Law: Wasn’t he my sleeper for them last year? He’s a guy for sure. I love Chisholm, who’s almost certainly going to be on my top 100, but I know scouts who think Robinson will be better.

Erik: Is Black Panther still in the top 10 of English language films for you in 2018 (said it in your review)
Keith Law: It is 14th right now, but four films ahead of it are not in English, so yes.

RSF: Do you worry about the plastic bags used for sous vide?
Keith Law: No because there is no reason to.

James: Any concerns that Tatis Jr makes it to the majors and is limited by contact problems a la Moncada?
Keith Law: No. Different players, different swings.

Chris B.: Chargers were dropped against Reuben Foster, who was roundly demonized two months ago based on accusations. I’m not sure if you commented on Foster, but I know you typically do not wait for the justice process to play out before castigating those accused of domestic violence. Does Foster’s case (or others where the accuser is lying) give you any pause?
Keith Law: I don’t know who that is, but I know cases where the accuser is lying – and, by the way, charges being dropped don’t mean the accuser lied – are quite rare. You are guilty of base rate neglect here.

Buck: Does David Dahl still have the upside he appeared to have as a prospect? Possible All Star if he can just stay healthy?
Keith Law: Yes.

Bob: Aledyms Diaz a cheaper Marwin for Houston?
Keith Law: Cheaper but not as good.

Archie: Would raising the strike zone and going back to a “normal” ball start to get us back to where balls are being put into play, but not always ending up in the seats when they are?
Keith Law: I have some hope it would.

Cash: Who is the nicest mlb player you have ever met?
Keith Law: Tough call – I’ve liked most of the players I’ve interacted with over the years. Archie Bradley comes to mind though. He certainly was the most enthusiastic I’ve ever met.

AZ: Favorite restaurant in Scottsdale?
Keith Law: FnB.

Rich: Is bo bichette a 2b long term?
Keith Law: That is my guess.

Bob: Are you ready to place some NFL playoff parlays at Stanley’s? I’m happy to buy you a beer and show you the ropes (on how to donate your money to the state of DE).
Keith Law: Are they taking bets there now too? good lord.
Keith Law: I don’t gamble, BTW, and I get the sense you don’t either.

Vinny : How do you feel about David Robertson to the Phillies?
Keith Law: Sure.

Adam: Could Acuna be the 2nd best player in MLB this year?
Keith Law: I’ll say that’s unlikely.

Grant: Do you think Joe Ross can be healthy enough to start?
Keith Law: I think he can be very good if healthy, but I know little more about players’ health than the public does (and if I know anything more I usually can’t share it).

Alex: Why do you think the Yankees are spending only 29% of their overall revenue on their roster, the lowest in baseball? Hal clearly wants to drive in more profit, right?
Keith Law: They’re treating the luxury tax threshold like a hard cap, which does what the league wants it to do but kills the union. I’m not disappointed, because I don’t want to see the Yankees simply field a $300 million team, but the idea of team owners pocketing all that cash doesn’t sit well with me either since the players are the product.

Chris: Can Evan White be the starting 1b for the mariners in 2019?
Keith Law: In 2020, yes.

Ryan: I believe you said you started reading Harry Potter to you hold at age 7. I’d like to do he same, do you feel that was a good age for that?
Keith Law: To my daughter? Yes, and yes, it was.

Amy: Random US city that surprised you as a fun travel destination?
Keith Law: Omaha was great for food and I found a cool board game cafe. Louisville is probably my favorite mid-sized city for food + drink + stuff to do.

Jack: Is it possible that the Mets wanted to move on from Kelenic due to non-baseball issues that you either wouldn’t know about or aren’t willing to share?
Keith Law: No. That’s kind of a bullshit question.

JP: Is legalized gambling good, bad, or neutral for MLB?
Keith Law: Gambling is bad for society in general, but it’s going to happen regardless, so it’s better to have it legal and somewhat regulated (and taxed!) than the alternative.

Amy: Have you ever done Cabo food recs?
Keith Law: I’ve never been to Mexico.

waks: hey john who’s a loyal democrat, lemme guess, you’re a middle-aged white guy
Keith Law: Anyone catch that GOP strategist who tweeted about her 87-year-old dad who wouldn’t vote for Elizabeth Warren in 2020? That’s some real valuable advice for Democrats: definitely tailor your candidate to the portion of the electorate with serious misogyny issues and a 50/50 shot of dying before the election.

Rob: Bought sous vide off your rec and I love it. Now looking into espresso, and I read some of your old posts. Any entry rec that won’t put me over $300?
Keith Law: Gaggia has some low-end models in the $220 range that are okay, not quite real espresso but closer than anything else in the price range.

KC: Do you see Gohara having a rebound year?
Keith Law: If healthy, he has real starter stuff and/or huge bullpen upside.

Jeff: Have you gotten past level 12 playing The Mind?
Keith Law: Nope. BTW, his Kennerspiel-winning game The Quacks of Quedlinburg is now out in the US, and it’s really fun, nowhere near as complicated as the title or the award would imply. It’s a simple push-your-luck game where you draw chips from your bag, but as the game progresses you get to add better chips to improve your odds.

Alec : Would you vote for Nikki Haley in a general election?
Keith Law: No, because of her policy positions and associations with Trump.

Tobias: Did Jack Flaherty just have his best season? The guy was a blast to watch, but it felt like the numbers were a little ahead of the stuff. Is he more of a #3 than a #1?
Keith Law: I think he can pitch like that for a while due to his plus-plus command.

JP: Is Durbin Feltman a potential high-leverage reliever in 2019?
Keith Law: Yes.

DC Deac: Read your HOF article and agree completely. I am a fan of WAR and appreciate it but as a writer do you ever consider not leaning on WAR as much because of your audience? I certainly don’t think it should be an end all be all (and I know you don’t) but do you ever worry readers will take that away from an article like that?
Keith Law: It’s a good starting point but you seem to understand my position on it perfectly. What I have found is that if I mention WAR there will be readers who focus on nothing else.

Kool Karl: Have you seen Holmes and Watson or intend to see it? I saw it over the holidays and thought it was a great film with some clever political overtones. I would love to get your opinion.
Keith Law: God no.

Bench : Griffin Canning? ace? Or potential Andrew Miller-ish type guy
Keith Law: If healthy, #2 starter. Strange that everyone was ready to flunk him on draft day but he’s been totally healthy in pro ball for 19 months.

mike sixel: Will Rooker cut his strikeouts enough to be a good MLB player someday? What position do you think he might play, if so? thanks.
Keith Law: 1B most likely, and yes. I think average regular.

Ben: Would you have voted for Edmonds if he were still on the ballot?
Keith Law: Yes.

Rick Sanchez: Do you think Hiura will be a consistent 20+ homer guy in the majors? There has been a pattern of blue chip prospects with elite hitting tools hitting for increased power once they reach the majors (likely attributed to the ball); e.g., Gleyber Torres, Lindor, Betts, etc.
Keith Law: With the current ball, sure. With a regular ball, I would say no.

Dan: Does Jeter Downs strike you as the kind of hitter that LA can convert into the next version of Turner/Muncy/C. Taylor? Possible 2B option for 2020? Thanks!
Keith Law: I have heard nothing but praise for the hit tool and the makeup. He’s definitely a 2b in the long run, not sure if he has that weird power upside you’re talking about, even with the LAD launch angle obsession.

Mike : My biggest worry about Elizabeth Warren as a Democrat isn’t even Elizabeth Warren, it’s that she’ll give Trump an easy target with which to play to his low info voting base and take advantage of the way the electoral college is stacked against high info areas in the first place.
Keith Law: That would be my worry as well, but at the same time, I’d rather see all of the interested, qualified candidates enter the race, and maybe then sort them out.

Andrew: Higher % between Rivera or Jeter for the HoF?
Keith Law: I think both get 99%, with a few omissions.

Chris P: Have you seen A Private War? I thought it was excellent and Pike really stood out in her role…but I feel like nobody knows about it.
Keith Law: Yes, loved it, she deserves a nomination. It is in my top 20. Review here.

Brian: Gavin Lux and Nolan Jones, likely top 100 guys?
Keith Law: Yes, definitely.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you all for the questions and for reading. I’ll try to keep these going all month, although it’s possible I’ll have to skip one while working on the prospect rankings. More details on the new book coming soon. Take care.

Keith Law: Buy yourself a dream, how’s it looking? It’s Klawchat.

Andy: What are your thoughts on a salary floor, that’s similar to the luxury tax. There is a floor but if player salaries don’t hit that floor, they get less in revenue sharing from the higher spending teams. I think the rich owners would go for it, since they hate subsidizing “teams not trying,” and it would still allow for bottoming out, owners would just make less money doing so.
Keith Law: I don’t like it, because there are often legitimate arguments for bad teams to avoid spending money on veteran players who aren’t going to be any better than internal options, just for the sake of spending that money. Yeah, the Orioles are going to be terrible this year, but should they spend $8 million on a maybe league-average veteran LF, or try to straighten out Austin Hays and give him 400 AB out there?

Arnold: The Giants selected two players in the Rule 5 draft, Drew Ferguson & Travis Bergen. Is either of them likely to ever be a useful major league piece?
Keith Law: Nope.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Pres Klaw gets sworn in 2020, what are his goals for his first 100 days?
Keith Law: Ctrl-Z.

addoeh: The Cubs didn’t re-sign Chavez, but you know I wish they had Jesse’s curve. Where can they find a pitcher like that?
Keith Law: Well, Rick, I really didn’t understand them choosing not to sign him at that price. Seemed like a great fit, he pitched extremely well, has no platoon split, Maddon liked him.

Lee D: Keith — You are the GM of Team X. You sign Bryce Harper to a 10 year/$300M contract. Which Team Xs would this be a good idea?
Keith Law: There is no team where it would truly be a bad idea. He’s very likely to exceed that AAV in on-field production.

Joe: Billy Wagner is seriously still getting HoF votes will the madness ever stop?
Keith Law: He’s better than Lee Smith and Trevor Hoffman, both of whom are in.

Mike: Keith, what’s a realistic return for the Blue Jays for Stroman. If they took back Homer Bailey’s salary, could they get one of the top 3 guys – Senzel/Greene/Trammell?
Keith Law: I don’t think the Reds are moving any of those three guys unless they should get a top of rotation starter.
Keith Law: Even then, maybe not.

Aaron G: Since the owners are treating the luxury tax like a hard cap, how long until the players finally figure out that the 6-year arbitration system artificially depresses salaries and should be changed/removed?
Keith Law: I think the union knows this, but never prioritized fighting it. I have to think they will do so next time around.

Ben: Your thoughts on the new proposal for Cuban signees no longer having to take up residence as they await MLB’s declaration of free agency? Does this require approval from the (puke) Trump administration and the xenophobic GOP first?
Keith Law: As far as I know, it doesn’t require any such approvals from the government. I think the new agreement is only good news – yes, it will shift some problems around, but ultimately this benefits players and teams.

Dave: What are your thoughts on Paul Richan? From the lists that have come out so far, he’s been as high as #5 or out of the top 30 all together.
Keith Law: I haven’t finished any individual team lists yet, but he’s not going to be top 5 even in that system.

Brett: Can I get your thoughts on InstaPots? My wife bought one and has tried numerous recipes. I think it makes terrible food and am not a fan.
Keith Law: I do not own one. I own a pressure cooker and a Dutch oven and use those where the Instant Pot would serve. But I also work at home and thus have time to cook that most working adults don’t have.

Mike: Do you ever feel like you’re at a huge disadvantage information wise? Now, it might be easier to find Trackman information, but with teams neuroscouting it would be hard for you to get that info.
Keith Law: I always worry about that, and try to get that info where I think there might be a gap in my knowledge on a player. Of course there will always be times I don’t learn that until later, as with some issues around player makeup.

Guest: Is Luzardo in the majors before September this year?
Keith Law: Yes, I expect so.

alex: Any big cooking plans for you with the upcoming holidays?
Keith Law: Don’t think so. Christmas has always been a small affair around here. I never liked those Christmas days when I was a kid and we were bundled up and shuttled off to visit family as soon as the last present was opened.

Alex K: Bellinger for Kluber (or Bauer): who hangs up first?
Keith Law: Dodgers.

Rick C: The more the offseason goes on, the more I get the sense that the Braves’ remaining moves look something like re-signing Markakis, trading for Gray, and adding a couple low to mid-tier relievers. Do you think I’m off the mark here? I think it’d be a huge mistake considering the strength of the division overall.
Keith Law: Well they made one huge move with Donaldson. I do think Anthopoulos will do something else on par with that, but it might not be until mid-January.

Sam: Dustin May a guy to break through this year?
Keith Law: Wasn’t he already on my midseason top 50? I think he was, so I would say he’s already broken through.

Keith: HOF question: I see a lot of momentum for Edgar and sheffield is more or less stalled. Offensive WAR gives Sheffield a significant advantage that gets eroded by his negative defense. If Sheffield had just been a DH, he’d be close to a no brainer HOFer. How do you reconcile this?
Keith Law: I have struggled with that exact question. My ballot & explanatory column go up next week and I promise you I answer it in there.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Do you know if there are any guidelines on how fast a kid should pitch as he’s growing up? Velo is the main reason for injuries right? So should a 13 y/o kid be pushing 75? 80?
Keith Law: I don’t know of any guidelines. It’s probably a function of physical effort level and I don’t know how anyone truly measures that (yet).

Hank: You’ve made fun of the fact that the Jays (and others) view their system differently than you do. Where approximately do you place them, and what are the major differences between what you think and what they think?
Keith Law: To be clear, I’ve only made fun of the team’s own overly optimistic view of their system, and how sensitive Mark Shapiro was when I disagreed with them. I don’t have them top 5, or particularly close, but beyond that I’d prefer to wait until I have my actual rankings done.

Jeff: What were your thoughts on the Mets hiring of Jared Banner?
Keith Law: I only know Jared a little bit but have heard nothing but positive things from his colleagues in Boston.

Ron: You think Kepler will put it together this year? If he does can he be a 4-5 win player? Buxton just needs to be healthy, right?
Keith Law: I thought he was going to put it together in 2018, so I guess yes, I still do. Buxton needs to get healthy. Sano needs to get in shape. There’s a lot of upside on that team, which is one reason I don’t agree with fans who think Cleveland has the division on lockdown.

nb: Hey Keith – Happy holidays to you and your family! When do we start receiving the present of prospect evaluations and rankings n ESPN.com? Thanks!
Keith Law: I believe the last full week of January. That’s a decision for my editors, but I’m already working on the phone call portion of the project.

J: Discuss my complicated emotions around the actually reasonable Wilson Ramos signing by Brodie van CAA and the implicit get over yourself to the Marlins.
Keith Law: Thought it was a very smart deal on its own merits, and much smarter than sending prospects for Realmuto, who is just marginally better than Ramos.

Rob: Trevor Cahill a good case for just using for multiple innings a couple times a week rather than as a “starter”?
Keith Law: I think he is.

Jim: Will Bubba Thompson garner top 100 consideration? Love his athleticism
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but I’m still working on it.

Chris: I saw Roma in a theater the other night and I experienced anguish and anxiety for much of it, incl the very last climb, and I dont even have issues with anxiety generally. I hear you re the surf noise. Great piece of filmmaking though.
Keith Law: I’m glad I didn’t see it in a theater for that reason, but am also glad Netflix did the wide theatrical release to give people the choice.

Rich J: Which team will sign Gritty? Which team SHOULD sign Gritty?
Keith Law: Doesn’t every team need Gritty, really?

Zac: is the 18 year old the Blue Jays took in the rule-5 a legit major league pitcher?
Keith Law: Is he right now? No. That’s a huge problem I have with the rule 5 draft today – it encourages teams to take players whose development will be stalled or even hurt by the jump to a level for which they’re not ready.
Keith Law: OK, it’s time to get serious: I am now eating Oreos.

Jackson: My pick for biggest lower level MiLB bat to rise in 2019 is Jhon Torres. Am I too optimistic?
Keith Law: He’s a very good prospect.

Foster: Is how batters fare against different arm slots tracked at all my front offices? Do you consider it to be valuable/meaningful?
Keith Law: I doubt the sample sizes would be large enough.

Dave: As a Cubs fan, I’m beyond appalled at the continued employment of Addison Russell. Melisa Reidy-Russell’s account of his abuse is sickening, and I’m especially bothered that Theo likely knew those details when he tendered him a contract. I realize baseball has had its share of bad apples from the beginning, so maybe I’m just being sanctimonious now. But Russell is my line in the sand. Either he goes, or I find another team to support. If only I could guarantee the next team will respond to such issues more appropriately.
Keith Law: I personally do not understand the team continuing to employ him at this point. If enough fans make their displeasure clear, maybe they’ll reconsider.

Brett: Does Scott Kingery make solid progress in 2019 or should we expect more of 2018?
Keith Law: I was hoping the Phillies would give him regular reps at one position, probably 2b, that he can truly play well, so that he wasn’t simultaneously trying to play a position where he had no experience/lacks the skills while also learning to hit major league pitching. I don’t know that that’s likely right now.

nelson: With teams less likely to hand out huge contracts to flawed players and teams also less likely to hand out longer term contracts to players in their 30s, how do you think this affects the future of the sport? Do you think this will lead to fundamental changes?
Keith Law: I think the union will/should push for fundamental changes like getting players to free agency sooner.

Tyler: Mo is a no doubt HOF for me because of the playoffs. However I do not have him even in the top 12 or 13 on this ballot based on regular season numbers. I struggle with how to evaluate RP and how much weight to put on playoff numbers. For example if I was starting a team I would take Oswalt over Mo. Oswalt was one of the best pitchers in the game for 10 years in a row. I do not think Oswalt is a HOFer and do think MO is, but I do think Oswalt was the better pitcher. I am glad Mo is going to get in I just have a hard time putting him in the top 10, is this me under stating his importance in the playoffs? Or is it me not valuing Closer enough in general?
Keith Law: Perhaps, and I’m only playing devil’s advocate here, you aren’t valuing Rivera’s performance relative to any other reliever over such a long period of time highly enough. Whether you believe Hoffman or Wagner was his best contemporary, Rivera was worlds better than both of them.

HOF voting: Do you make a distinction (as others have) between voting for highly credibly PED accused- like say Bonds, Clemons- and someone like Manny who was actually caught?
Keith Law: I do – and I have mentioned it before, so my view there remains the same. I won’t be consistent just for its own sake but in this case I’ve been consistent.

Mike: How many more years do the Indians have before anyone (or everyone) in the AL Central catches up?
Keith Law: like I said above, they may be the favorites but the division isn’t just theirs in 2019.

Sean: I’m almost through The Master and Margarita. I’ve thoroughly enjoyed it, but I hadn’t even heard of it before I saw it on your top book list (and I like to think I am relatively well-read). Seems to me that it’s not one that is touted much in America despite it’s clear place as a literary classic, could you speculate as to why this is?
Keith Law: It wasn’t written in English, and the anti-communist satire within the novel probably doesn’t land for American audiences.

John : Should I be terrified the Reds are going to trade Senzel and/or Trammell for Kluber?
Keith Law: Yes, I wouldn’t favor that.

Rick C: What is going on with Carter Stewart’s grievance?
Keith Law: Nobody knows.

Tyler: In regards to the salary floor, what if a team does not reach it they have to spend the difference on their minor league players salary?
Keith Law: Now that is the greatest idea I’ve ever heard.

Guest: Do you think Tulo is a worthwhile upgrade (or an upgrade at all?) over Kevin Newman / Erik Gonzalez for Pittsburgh?
Keith Law: Definitely not.

Rell: What do you do with being around immediate family for the holidays that insist on bringing up political views just to have a debate with you?
Keith Law: I don’t have any immediate family who support this Administration or the current GOP in general.

Chris: There is gonna be a riot if the Yankees bring in (so called bad seed) Machado which leads to them not re-signing fan fave and great guy Didi. This is where you tell me Machado’s a clearly better player and the FO doesnt give a whit about what the fans want.
Keith Law: There won’t be a riot. Yankee fans will be thrilled if they sign Machado.

Dan: Do you ever move a book up or down your favortie novels list a year or more after you have read it? Based on a second reading or how something may have struck you after thinking on it further.
Keith Law: The latter, yes. I rarely read novels twice, but I do often find myself thinking about novels differently after some time. Zadie Smith’s White Teeth really grew on me months after I read it.

Em: Love your work, baseball and non. Non baseball though: no love for Middle Kids on the music list…didn’t like or didn’t listen?
Keith Law: Didn’t like, sorry.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Thanks for your music updates. I really agree with you that it’s been a down year for music. Will Tool save us when they finally release their album next year?
Keith Law: Never been a Tool fan.

Andy: Do you ever go back and listen to previous albums, that you may have missed? It seems like most of your songs/albums you link to are current ones. Do you still find bands/albums that you may have missed from five years ago, but just don’t link them as much?
Keith Law: I only link to current songs/albums because that’s the purpose of those posts – I do monthly playlists of new music, then year-end lists of the best albums or songs of that specific year.

Dan: Sad news from Long Beach- Seoulmate closed and is now up for sale. 🙁
Keith Law: That is a bummer – although their website says they’re hoping to reopen in a larger space. That location didn’t have much seating. The owner was a reader of mine, so I’m very much hoping to hear some good news on that front soon.

Dave: If you think Harper is a generational talent worth the zillion dollars he’s going to get, do you let the fact that you already have three good outfielders (coughNYcough) stop you?
Keith Law: No, you have the DH spot to work with.

Jack: Which prospect will be the next addition to the White Sox rotation: Dunning, Cease, or Kopech (at the start of 2020)?
Keith Law: Cease seems closest.

Cole: Is it time to write off Austin Beck?
Keith Law: Good lord, no. He’s had one full year in pro ball.

Joe: Where they any changes to Hedges swing it approach in the second half of last season that indicates his improvement bcould be sustainable? How good is he defensively, I’ve heard writers claim it slipped last season?
Keith Law: Nothing changed with his swing or approach. I don’t think he’s slipped defensively.

AGirlHasNoName: So, um, Addison Russell is just toast, right? I am glad his exes have put their own words out there, and wish them strength. But he has to be toast, right? Might as well grow an evil mustache and get sharks with lasers on their head or something, there’s no coming back from here, is there?
Keith Law: If he goes out and hits like an All-Star this year, there will be fans (mostly men) lining up to forgive him and/or call his exes liars and golddiggers. Even after he admitted Reidy’s claims of violence were true, and then she and another of his girlfriends both posted accounts of his bad behavior, there were STILL dipshit men in my mentions yesterday calling them liars, or just saying women lie all the time (not about this, they don’t). I gave the block button quite a workout.

Matt from MKE: Love your stuff, Keith! Question about the Brewers and Hiura – why would they even waste time with a temporary 1 year signing to play 2B, when their top minor leaguer plays that spot? Wouldn’t you give him the chance to succeed/fail first?
Keith Law: I would, yes.

Dan: Have you seen Minding the Gap? It may win Best Documentary and it’s fantastic. (Granted I’m biased as it’s filmed in my hometown)
Keith Law: No, I’ll watch it next month. I still feel like Won’t You Be My Neighbor? is going to win, though.

Chris: Ive tried to stop getting worked up about things like HoF, awards, etc, but in what way is it remotely fair for a player who never topped 6% to get in as an end around by a small group of cronies? Why does that avenue even exist?
Keith Law: Ask the Hall. It’s their process. I don’t mind a sort of last chance kitchen for candidates whom the voters whiffed on – Trammell already, Whitaker soon, I hope – but a committee that small, filled with voters who have personal relationships with candidates, will ALWAYS produce bad outcomes.

William T.: Keith, a lot of these “early” mock drafts starting to surface. Do you like HS Lhp Hunter Barco to be a fit for my Rangers at #8?
Keith Law: Mock drafts this early are not worth the electrons used to post them.

Adam: Steroid suspicions aside, would you support someone who chose not to vote Barry Bonds into the Hall of Fame due to his questionable domestic violence history?
Keith Law: Yes, I would. Unfortunately, we have a few players on the current ballot with such accusations (which, again, I tend to assume are true), and more already in the Hall. Incorporating that into voting would meet my personal morality but raises a question of what the Hall is actually there for. I don’t have a good answer.

Trevor: Brewers rhp prospect Zack Brown seem to be popping up on a lot of radars. Someone you like?
Keith Law: Yep, he’s a guy.

HankQQ: Liked your top 100 songs list yesterday. One band that I thought deserved a spot was Idles. If you haven’t already give Joy as an act of resistance a listen.
Keith Law: I didn’t like that album at all.

Matt: Do you consider the White Sox serious contenders for Harper or Machado?
Keith Law: Yes.

bunt cake: muncy’s floor should be solid/average mlb player with some pop and good walk rate?
Keith Law: I think his floor is below that. Platoon/bench player.

Kacey: I don’t disagree with you on Russell, but would you give him a second chance if he was truly contrite right away, it was a one time thing and he sought counseling?
Keith Law: My view is that a man who puts his hands on a woman’s neck in anger cannot be redeemed or rehabilitated. He’s a danger.

Jon: Keith, how do you feel about die hard Trump supporters reading your chats?
Keith Law: Do they? I use a lot of big words.

Adam: Higher Ceiling? Waters or Pache?
Keith Law: Pache.

Josh: Given the increased specialization of baseball roles, at what point does Hall of Fame worthiness become primarily based on “excellence relative to position/role” like some other sports? In other words, for example, Billy Wagner would be deserving while Gary Sheffield would not – despite the latter being substantially more valuable to an actual baseball team.
Keith Law: I really do not want to see the Hall start honoring the best specialists. I don’t think that’s ever been its purpose nor should it be going forward.

Tinker McSwiggins: I’ve heard of about 3% of the artists on your top 100 songs. Where do you find these artists(literally, not trolling)? Also do you have a link to your go to pie crust recipe? Thanks bro, hang ten dude.
Keith Law: I find them all over the place – there isn’t one spot. I listen to a lot of music, especially when driving or when doing mindless stuff around the house like cleaning, doing dishes, even sometimes while cooking. Pie crust recipe

Kevin: Would you include player opt-outs if you were a GM or overpay to induce the player to sign w/ your team. I am a huge White Sox fan and would be extremely giddy if they signed Harper and/or Machado, however unlikely and out of character it may be. I don’t understand giving them an opt-out after say 3 years though. That will probably be when the White Sox young players start hitting their stride and the team competes, but now you have a star player you have to pay more just to keep. On the other hand, the player could turn into a Jason Heyward where he underperforms expectations and he chooses not to opt-out.
Keith Law: Player options are bad for the team. An “opt-out” is just a euphemism – it’s a player option. If the player stinks, you’re stuck with him. If he’s good, he probably opts out.

Dom: What’s your best advice for somebody seeking a job in scouting, FO or development? Thanks!
Keith Law: Learn to code.

Bryan: Any boardgame recommendations that are good for the whole family (adults and teens) that can also be played with a 7-year or 8-year-old? [i.e., not just children’s games that older people can play with them]
Keith Law: Ticket to Ride, Splendor, maybe Carcassonne (love the game, the farm strategy can be a little abstract for young players).

Krontz: Forbes does MLB team valuations and has said some clubs have net losses in given years. Is that really possible? Aren’t the owners just using the ol’ “shell game” of making it look like a loss on the books while profits from concessions, parking, leases, etc all add up to plenty of profit in the end for MLB owners.
Keith Law: Yes, they use transfer pricing tricks (e.g., paying themselves a well below market price for something like parking, putting parking revenues in a related entity) to pull that off.

Matt: So uhh… Syria. The coming clusterfuck is gonna make Iraq look like a calm serene day at the beach isn’t it?
Keith Law: Yep. I will say that I think the Obama Administration probably mishandled Syria, out of fear that the GOP-held Congress would obstruct any serious efforts.
Keith Law: There’s probably no way I could do justice to the topic of US policy in Syria, about which I only have cursory knowledge anyway, in a chat question.

Imre: Thanks for all you do Keith! Merry Christmas to you and your family! Any suggestions for board games for our 4 yo daughter?
Keith Law: Merry Christmas to you as well. A lot of publishers are doing kids’ versions of the games I love, and some are really good, like Ticket to Ride: First Journey and My First Carcassonne.

Lee: What’s a fair extension for Mookie Betts at this point? Does he bite at 10 years and 250 million?
Keith Law: I think he’d ask for more. A player of his caliber should ask for $30MM+ in free agency.

Sean: Do you have any sense on the approach Zaidi will have this off-season. It’s been quiet so far and they need to make some moves eventually.
Keith Law: Do they? I don’t see them as contenders in 2019. Standing pat for now may be the right move.

Richard: Looking at the Yankees and Red Sox positioning themselves for years of dominance and the Rays being seemingly light years ahead in their turnaround, what can I – a lifelong Blue Jays fan and expert of mediocre baseball team watching – latch onto as a fan while their current management team attempts an AL Central – centric rebuild?
Keith Law: I don’t have a great answer for that, although I think the idea of the Jays rebuilding through the farm, which they are clearly trying to do, should be seen by fans as a positive. We can disagree over the progress of the rebuild, but they are right not to try to fake-compete in the short term.

Danny Boy: Keith, why the vitriol against Israel? Between your remonstration of Israel’s inclusion in the WBC, criticism of Solomonov’s documentary, and your pro BDS tweets, it sounds like you’ve got an Israel problem.
Keith Law: I actually praised Solomonov’s documentary, you stupid troll.

Dr. Bob: You may be concerned about falling behind because you don’t see all the data that teams are developing, but it could be worse. You could be Jim Bowden analyzing teams and trades and signings like they still happened over drinks at the hotel bar.
Keith Law: No comment.

Jon: I just love the fact that ANY man that is accused of sexual assault you just blindly believe the woman and hang said man out to dry. Typical liberal for you
Keith Law: Yes, we liberals like data, and since the data say false claims of sexual assault or domestic violence are extremely rare (as low as 3%, probably no higher than 10%), the rational conclusion is that such claims are true.

Tom C: No such thing as a bad one year contract, but does Matt Harvey have anything left?
Keith Law: I think so. Good gamble for LAA.

Jordan: Do you think Mark Vientos could get serious Top-100 consideration by mid-2019? Love his bat.
Keith Law: I love his bat too. It’s not any more, but the mets had a top ten season when October ended.

Allan: Best guess: how many starts does Corbin Burnes make this year?
Keith Law: 25.

Danny: No te gusta Coheed and Cambria?
Keith Law: No, lo siento.
Keith Law: Me gustaría mas cuando fueron llamados “Savatage.”

Brian: A new record (!!!!) – I have heard of 3 of the artists and 0 of the songs on your 2018 top 100. I am officially old. Was there ever a period in your life in which you stopped following new music?
Keith Law: Yes, around when my daughter was born. Never had the time or the mental energy.

J: Any opinion on the removal of Baby It’s Cold Outside from many radio stations Holiday play list?
Keith Law: I’m fine with removing it. If listeners find it problematic through a modern lens – which I do, since “what’s in this drink” sure as hell sounds like a reference to roofies – then why play it? Granted I never cared for the melody anyway…

Dazed and Confused: I generally trust your opinions on baseball, and agree with most of your politics. However, I think I differ with you on the severity of Russell’s punishment. While I’m ok with baseball never employing him again, however, as a society, rather than giving up on people like Russell, we need to find a way to help and rehabilitate people in his situation so that they can be contributing members of this society.
Keith Law: I haven’t really commented on what should happen to Russell outside of baseball. He can go do something else for a living. I’m just saying playing MLB is a privilege, and that wearing the uniform means you’re representing a brand and an organization that can decide they no longer want you doing so.

Ryan: Keith, We are about to embark on a long car ride. Any (cell phone or iPad) app games you can recommend for a 6 year old? Bonus points if it doesn’t require internet connectivity. Happy holidays to you and yours
Keith Law: There is also a Ticket to Ride First Journey app that’s quite good. And a 6-year-old can play Carcassonne against the easiest AI (the “maid”) and fare well.

Joshua: Regardless if the Nats resign Harper, does a trade of Eaton make some sense. The Nats could have an OF of Soto, Robles, and Taylor in RF. Although there would be a dip in offensive production, defense and speed would be added. Maybe an Eaton deal to Cleveland for one of their starters could be a starting point of discussion. Thoughts?
Keith Law: No, I wouldn’t trade Eaton unless Harper is back.
Keith Law: The Nats are close to a complete team right now. Trading Eaton and playing Taylor makes them worse.

Matt: Do you know of any card games that you can play solo that’s not like Solitaire?
Keith Law: There’s one called Friday, a physical game and an app, that’s very difficult. Also one called Onirim that I’ve only played as an app and enjoy but find easier to defeat.

Moe Mentum: Based on performance alone, is Rafael Palmeiro worthy of Hall of Fame enshrinement? If so, will it happen in your lifetime?
Keith Law: He was always just on the wrong side of the line for me.

Aaron G: Ok now my stupid question of the day: if the Yankees decide on Machado instead of Harper, can the Yankees reasonably expect to get another SP1 or 2 via trade using Andujar as a centerpiece?
Keith Law: Not with him as a centerpiece. Maybe as part of a bigger deal.
Keith Law: They did just use their best prospect to get Paxton, who is like a #1 for 2/3 of a season.

Jimmy the Pratt: Are the Mets offficially a contender?
Keith Law: Is there an official designation system I wasn’t aware of? Like how Parmigiano-Reggiano has to come from one of five Italian provinces to bear that name?

Joe: Angels get harvey and Cahill for $20 mil + incentives….decent work by billy?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Josh: I just left a comment on your music post, but I didn’t notice there’s a Klawchat today, so I’m here to needle you a bit in somewhat real-time. Isn’t dinging Ghost for their satanic trappings like complaining back in the day about Griffey’s backwards hat? What does it matter as long as it rocks? And why can’t tongue-in-cheek homages to Satan be taken seriously in a genre that encourages over-the-top thematic elements?
Keith Law: I find that stuff incredibly childish. I’d compare it more to a 12-year-old cursing left and right because he thinks it makes him sound more like an adult.

John: Currently eating at Shake Shack for the first time as I type this. It’s definitely good, but doesn’t quite meet the hype, same as In n Out, IMO. Rank those 2 with 5 Guys?
Keith Law: Shake Shack > In-n-Out > 5 Guys. (I no longer eat beef, but did until about two years ago, and have had burgers at all 3.) Shake Shack uses way better inputs.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Has Klentak shown to be a good GM so far in your opinion? I have mixed feelings so far.
Keith Law: Overall, yes. But their amateur draft results, notably in the first round, have been poor, and that has to be addressed at some point.

Brian: You stated above the Giants should possibly just stand pat. So would the strategy be just fill their remaining holes with one year fliers and sell what you can at the deadline?
Keith Law: Right. And play internal options where available, although I know there aren’t many.

Joe: Most impactful call up for the angels in 2019? Canning, Suarez, adell, rengifo, someone else?
Keith Law: Not Adell although he’s their best prospect. Canning seems like a good bet.

Jackie: Joe Kelly had a mediocre regular season in 2018, followed by a terrific post-season. The Dodgers just made a massive overpay. Why does it seem like teams always overvalue the three weeks in October vs. a career’s worth of middling results?
Keith Law: That one really surprised me. Didn’t foresee the Dodgers overpaying like that for a reliever.

John: My wifes work has us overseas. Every country we have lived in has ESPN+ (used to be insider) blocked. Why is that? What content right issues don’t allow me to use ESPN+ except for out two week home leave every year?
Keith Law: You aren’t the only person to report this but unfortunately I don’t know the answer. I’m sorry.

JR: Do you think the Mets viewed Dunn and Kelenic as their top two prospects and it was the price they had to pay to get Cano/Diaz, or did they view them differently than the rest of the industry which is why they were willing to trade them?
Keith Law: I believe those were their top two prospects, and that the industry as a whole viewed them the same (consensus, of course, not every person will agree), but BVW didn’t.

J5: Tony Gonsolin a legit sp prospect?
Keith Law: I’ve heard very good reliever but have not seen.
Keith Law: I may have that wrong, actually … going off memory there but now I’m doubting myself. I know I have very good notes either way.
Keith Law: OK, I need to wrap this up with a busy afternoon ahead. Thank you all so much for reading, today and all year long. I’ll still be writing as needed through the holidays but won’t chat again until January 3rd. Have a safe and happy holiday, and please watch yourselves on the roads, especially on New Year’s Eve. We will chat again in the new year.

My latest board game review for Paste looks at Welcome To, a twist on roll-and-write games that can play any number of players – up to 100, even.

Keith Law: No time for nothing, no Patek Philippe. Just Klawchat.

Joe Cleveland: Mets are crazy, right? Getting Cano giving up players like Kelenic or Dunn seems very dumb unless they get another valuable and controllable player like Haniger.
Keith Law: Hey, any time you can trade your #1 and #2 prospects for a 36-year-old second baseman with a bad contract and a volatile commodity like a one-inning closer, you just have to do it.

Adam: I guess Joe Simpsons comments didnt slide by unnoticed
Keith Law: Fox Sports is claiming his comments had nothing to do with the decision to get him largely off TV, which I find hard to believe. But worse is Simpson’s comments (from the AJC): “I have a very strong protective instinct on the game and its customs and history and traditions, so my comments were only intended as a defensive mechanism of the game.” That is not any sort of apology, or even a remote acknowledgement of the tacit (or less than tacit) racism of his comments. It’s an old white man who doesn’t even know that the customs, history, and tradition of baseball include excluding players of color, then allowing them to play while treating them vastly differently than white players. Whatever the reasons, I’m glad Fox chose to turn this page.

Patrick: Keith, with your front office experience, what do you think the Brewers should do this off-season, esp about SP? Go with the young players? Or push for a Bumgarner type (star SP available for a short time)?
Keith Law: Burnes and Woodruff join the rotation, and they’re both good. I wouldn’t view a top-end starter as a priority. Bulk innings, perhaps, but I wouldn’t go spend prospects.

Patrick: Thanks again for all these chats Keith.
Do you have a favorite holiday/seasonal recipe?
Keith Law: Not really. My daughter and I will make some cookies, like the Italian flag (tri-color, rainbow, seven-layer … they have lots of names) cookies made from almond paste, chocolate, and raspberry & apricot jams.

Ryan: Hi Klaw, Thoughts on the rumored Cano/Diaz to Mets trade? I’m confused why the Mets would include Gimenez.
Keith Law: Gimenez isn’t in the class of Dunn or Kelenic. He’s a solid prospect but doesn’t have that kind of upside.

Dave: Thanks for the chat. Does Brian McCann have enough left to be the Braves’ primary catcher in 2019?
Keith Law: No, nor did they sign him to do that.

Jeff: Currently waiting in line at Little Miss BBQ. Got here at 830. Second in line (opens at 11). Good move or GREAT MOVE?
Keith Law: Great move. Get the brisket.

Mike: Have to run to a meeting, so I’ll take your answer off the air. The (purely hypothetical) return of Medina and JoJo Romero for MadBum is fair, right? I get the feeling in the Bay Area that fans won’t be happy with any return given their sentimental attachment to Bum.
Keith Law: Honestly, I’m not sure if I like that for the Phillies, just because Bumgarner isn’t what he used to be, and I feel like you might get something better if you package Romero (whom I really like) and Medina (more stuff than performance) in another deal.

section 34: I can’t decide between two Orioles questions:
1) What’s a reasonable timeline for the O’s to return to contention?
2) If you were in charge, would you DFA Chris Davis, or take some other action?
Keith Law: I think it’s 4-5 years, and I would DFA him. At least get the 40-man spot back.

Dave: Hi, Keith! Thanks for all of your baseball writing! This is non-baseball, though: With the closing of Cocina Lolo, what do you do for quality Mexican food in your area now? Asking for a Delaware friend.
Keith Law: Honest answer: I don’t. I just get my fix on the road now.

Michael Conforto: Would you ever do science and politics chats or writing? Your takes are more well thought out than most political journalists, and watching you torch anti-vaxxers on Twitter is extremely entertaining.
Keith Law: Thank you. I would if there were a serious professional opportunity to do so. Doing it just on my own probably brings more downside than reward.

DH: Does Peter Alonso have the bat to be an above average DH if he were in the AL? Can he hit 30 hr? And does he give all of that value back if he plays at 1st?
Keith Law: Yes, yes, and not all of it, just some.

Jake Albrecht: Do you abandon books if they’re not working for you? I’m slogging through War and Peace and I thought I successfully left it behind but every time I want to quit I feel guilty about it.
Keith Law: I do, usually early on. If I hit page 100 I’m probably finishing it. I got through War & Peace without too much trouble. Les Miserables is the novel of that length I’d advise everyone to skip.

Kasvot Vaxt: How many wins would this Cano / Diaz deal add to the Mets next year?
Keith Law: I’ll say 5-6. Which makes them … a fourth place team.

Jared: How would you rank the Brewers three young pitchers — Peralta, Burnes, Woodruff — going forward?
Keith Law: Burnes well over Woodruff, who’s then over Peralta.

Matt: Hey KLaw, Mark Bowman reported that acquiring Kluber would likely cost the Braves Kyle Wright, Touki, and Pache. Would you make that trade if you ran the Braves?
Keith Law: No way. Especially with some very small signs that Kluber may be declining relative to his peak. You’re paying for three years and it’s likely none of them is 7-WAR Kluber.

Marshall MN: I don’t disagree with your opinion on the ability of Royce Lewis to stick at SS, but if he can’t cut it there at what level would you expect to see the Twins move him to a different position? At AA?
Keith Law: That’s probably right.

Kacey: Did you know that a witch hunt involves guilty pleas from the President’s personal attorney, campaign manager, deputy campaign manager, foreign policy adviser and national security adviser? When will this witch hunt end???
Keith Law: The great part of the joke is that the witch hunt keeps finding more witches.

Dave: Keith, any thoughts on who the Orioles will replace Gary Rajsich with as their scouting director?
Keith Law: I have no idea.

Ciscoskid: Does the market of available 1B options make Brandon Belt a negative value asset?
Keith Law: No, but it certainly limits his return to the point that it likely makes more sense to keep him.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: What on earth is the Mets FO doing? Actively searching for Syndergaard trade partners, but deGrom is off limits. Also pushing for an old, $120M 1B and a young RP?
Keith Law: We’re just pretending that the Mets’ GM didn’t represent that old 2b (who might be a 1b) and negotiate that deal, right? There’s nothing weird about that?

matt klentak: isnt the opportunity cost for Diaz too high? I mean, you can get Familia and Miller or some duo like that for ~60M, which probably is less than two top 100 prospects + an MLB player for Diaz
Keith Law: Yes, and also, relievers don’t last. Look at the four-year deals just ending – Miller, Kimbrel, Robertson. None paid off well. The first two are clearly less than they were at the start. And I would feel very comfortable betting that Diaz’s 3.5 WAR last year ends up his career high.

Tom C: Yesterday my work was giving out flu shots (I already had mine). Some people around me were debating whether to get one because they didn’t want to get sick from the shot. Me: You know what makes you even sicker? Them: What? Me: The ACTUAL flu. Them: (Blank Stares). Some went and got the shot.
Keith Law: Excellent answer. Also, you can’t get the flu from the flu shot, because the virus in it is attenuated (weakened so it can’t cause the flu).

Adam: What does Francisco Mejia’s stock look like right now? Is it an exaggeration to say that he’s not a Top 5 prospect in the Padres system?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s an absurd statement. Of course he’s top 5 there.

Matt: Thoughts on a couple of Rays rookies from 2018, Joey Wendle and Jake Bauers? Do you believe in Wendle’s big second half, and are you buying Bauers as a bounceback guy despite his struggles last year?
Keith Law: Don’t believe in Wendle at all. Bauers is better than what he showed. Probably never a 20 homer guy, but can hit for a lot more average than that. Think he’s a solid-average regular at 1b.

Steve from PHL: Keith, what is your prediction as to what the Phillies do this offseason- signings, trades, etc? Thanks!
Keith Law: I really don’t do predictions like that. I leave that stuff and the rumormongering to others. I’ll just react as appropriate when there’s real news like a signing.

Paul: Of course if the Mets are stupid enough to trade Kelenic or Dunn then the other moves are irrelevant. However – what were your thoughts on Mets hiring Baird?
Keith Law: That’s the one move there I’ve really liked. I know Allard a little – enough that I know not to shake his hand again, because last time he broke two of my metacarpal bones – but more importantly the people I know well who’ve worked for and with him absolutely rave about him as a baseball guy and a person to work for.

Jon: With the Mets saying they want to “contend” in 2019 and the absurd rumors about trading all their top prospects for Cano and a closer, why do I get the feeling this will be a half baked offseason that drains the cupboards and in a year or two, they’re back in the same spot, only with a terrible farm system?
Keith Law: This feels a bit like the first Preller year in San Diego, when ownership seemed to want him to go all out to try to win, and they traded away a lot of value (especially Trea Turner) while acquiring bad contracts that eventually hamstrung them. The difference is that Preller was able to do a 180 and, with the help of the old international rules, turn their depleted farm system into the game’s best in short order.

JP: Settle a baseball argument: when talking about years of Team Control, is that referring to the Pre-Arbitration years only, or all the years until the player becomes a FA (PreArb+Arb)?
Keith Law: Years until free agency.

Andrew: Given the light return for Paxton, would the Giants be better off holding onto him and taking the comp pick after the season?
Keith Law: Your given is not a given.

Anthony: Hi Keith, thoughts on Andruw Jones and his HoF case?
Keith Law: So I have a vote this year, for the first time, and I have checked off nine names so far. I think I know who my tenth will be, but I’m mulling it over for a few days before I fill out the last one and mail it. I’ll do a column for ESPN+ later this month about it.

Marshall MN: You know what’s crazy, we are only 2 months away from your annual top prospect list, wow does time fly. Are you already hard at work on the top 100?
Keith Law: I am indeed. I’ve spent about 15 hours on the phone since Monday morning, maybe a little more, and have another call at 2 pm sharp.
Keith Law: I do a lot of calls first before I write anything at all.

JR: Does your daughter have a phone? If so, at what age did you get her one? If not, at what age would you feel comfortable? I thought I could hold out until 12/13, but my 10 year old son is already angling for one and many kids younger than him already have one.
Keith Law: She does. It has been really valuable for her to have it to text or call us, and more than once her bus has had a substitute/temporary driver so she’s used the maps to help the driver navigate (which, yes, that’s a whole different set of issues).

Gavin: Is Keston the real deal? He gives me Joe Panik vibes with his lack of power.
Keith Law: Totally dissimilar players, although I don’t think Hiura is a huge power guy. He makes harder contact than Panik.

Jake: Have you ever had BBQ in KC? Thoughts? Q39, Joe’s, Jack stack>>
Keith Law: KC Joes was my favorite. Slappy’s was very good too. Jack Stack is a different experience … BBQ is more of a casual thing, so in a sit-down setting it seems a little weird to me.

Mitch: Do you take much stock in Dominican Winter ball performances? Small sample size, but Heliot Ramos is doing much better than in Augusta. Not sure if that’s growth or he’s facing worse competition.
Keith Law: Ramos is Puerto Rican and is playing in the Puerto Rican Winter League, not the Dominican. I don’t put any stock in numbers from those leagues, though; the level of competition varies far too much even from game to game. I think it’s a positive experience for players, since they get more reps in real game settings.

Andy: It seems like the Braves are valuing higher dollar and shorter year span with contracts. Do you see becoming more common with all teams and move away from the 8 to 10 year deals in the future?
Keith Law: No, because the dynamics of the market will always encourage teams to give that one extra year to land the player.

Chris: Thoughts on Lewis Brinson? That Yelich trade is looking all-time bad right now for Marlins.
Keith Law: Still see upside there. Also, I wouldn’t judge a prospect deal after just one year.

Kyle: Do you think Bryan Reynolds can stick in center field?
Keith Law: I do not.

Mac: We were having a discussion about the most overrated tools and I said arm strength for a catcher. What’s yours?
Keith Law: Velocity. Without any other variables, it’s not all that telling once you’ve hit the major-league minimum (you can’t throw 84 as a RHP and be a major league starter).

AJ: Hi Keith, could you weigh in on a friendly office argument? I told a co-worker I’d rather take Eugenio Suarez (at current deal) over Machado at 8/200 and was called insane. It just seems to be a better use of $, and not even for small market teams only. Am I in fact insane?
Keith Law: Insane is awfully harsh. I just disagree with you.

Jason: Did Reggie Lawson become a prospect this season? Seems like his secondaries improved
Keith Law: He was one before, but he took a nice step forward.

Tony: How can we take strong legislative action on climate change when 1) the Republican base firmly believes scientists are lying, and 2) it’s very hard to take decisive control of the Senate from Republicans, given their demographic advantage in having that same Republican base dominate lots of small rural states?
Keith Law: It would be nice if House Democrats tried a more aggressive tactic of actually pushing bills and forcing the Senate to reject them, but also, the Dems have not done enough to make climate change’s effects a real campaign issue in states like Florida that are going to get seriously fucked by rising seas, more/stronger hurricanes, red tide, etc.

Brian: Do you think Wil Crowe could become a No. 3 starter, or is he more of a high probability 4/5 starter?
Keith Law: I would say virtually no chance he’s a 3.

Chris: Contrarian thought that I think you’d agree with from being in previous chats: Mets would be smart to flip Alonso for relief pitching now at possible peak of his value and roll w Smith at 1B. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Depends on the pitching, but yes, I do agree with that. Have to recognize Alonso has real value to AL clubs, though – I’m not saying you just give him away.

Mike: Love your baseball writing and opinions, as well as your takes on games, food, movies, music and books. I’m curious if baseball wasn’t your primary career, and you could spin any of those (or politics, science, etc) into a new full time writing job, which would you choose?
Keith Law: I’d probably be happy doing any of those. I just love to write.

KeithLawCommenter: Will you dabble in giving out baseball picks for betting? Or ever consider Action Network like Rovell?
Keith Law: No, and heck no.

Larry: What have you heard about Monte Harrison’s adjusted swing? Still hope there?
Keith Law: Saw him in AFL. Not sure what was “adjusted.”

Anthony: Just out of curiosity: what happens to a HOF vote if a qualified writer works for a team? If you took a job as scouting director tomorrow, I assume you’d forfeit your ballot, but if you reenter the public sphere after say, 3 years, do you get it back immediately or have to wait another decade?
Keith Law: No, I’d keep the ballot for ten years.

Dave: Should the Astros trade Tucker+ for Realmuto or sign Ramos or Grandal in FA?
Keith Law: I’d go the free agent route. Tucker may have struggled in his ten minutes in the majors but I think he’s a star.

Sam: What are your thoughts on Trevor Bauer. I’m 99% sure he’s an unbearable human being making a decent point about the arbitration process.
Keith Law: Bauer’s right about a lot of things – he made good arguments about foreign substances on the ball after the initial griping about Houston. He’s just wrong about climate change and immigration and a bunch of other stuff. But I wouldn’t dismiss his views on everything just because he gets a few things wrong.

SC: I am Mets fan but not a fan of Cano but trying to see the big picture– as long as they don’t give up an A-1 prospect and get Diaz and maybe another prospect they’ve improved the team. Then maybe they trade Thor to the Pads for some stud prospects, including Hedges, and fortify up the middle. Can you see that as the play here?
Keith Law: The rumors I’ve seen have them giving up their top two prospects. That’s duh-umb.

TomBruno23: Cardinals need to upgrade the bullpen. For fun, here’s a list of multi-year deals given out by the team to relievers since winning the 2011 World Series: Randy Choate, Seunghwan Oh, Jonathan Broxton, Brett Cecil, Luke Gregerson. I think that’s the full list.
Keith Law: Yeah, maybe change that up a little. They have so many pitching prospects in/near the majors you’d think they could fill out a bullpen internally.

David: Thanks for all that you do, KLaw. Baseball is a better follow because of you.
Keith Law: Thank you. I try to keep it entertaining & informative, and to not be an unbearable human being making decent points.

Mike: Does the Law household open the majority of gifts on x-mas eve, or day?
Keith Law: Christmas morning.

Anthony: Is Swanson going to hit? If not, should they move him for a corner outfield bat and give Camargo or Ozzie SS?
Keith Law: I think he’s going to hit. I’m a bit less confident than I was a year ago.

Zac: Does Daz Cameron make his debut this year and do you think the jump he made last year is sustainable?
Keith Law: Late 2019, and yes.

Adam: Love your game recommmendations. Thank you. Have you every played Coloretto? Simple card game that can be played with kids down to 8 or younger, but also interesting for adults. A nice palette cleanser at a games night.
Keith Law: I have – maybe a bit too light for me? But a cute game. I believe that came first and then the designer turned it into Zooloretto, which won the Spiel des Jahres.

Billy Eppler: Think Arte will let me buy out pujols contract?
Keith Law: He’s another guy who should be DFA’d to get back the 40-man spot. He’s no longer worth it. Whether the owner accepts this is another matter.

Evan: The general feeling among Cubs fans based on last season’s results and comments from Theo is that the cubs need to make serious changes. However, the team won 95 games despite a lost season from Kris Bryant and a underperforming offense. Do you think the level of concern is warranted or we are overreacting to an early playoff exit and a red hot Brewers team in the last month of the season?
Keith Law: I don’t think they need to make serious changes. They changed hitting coaches, which was probably needed. They retained Hamels, which was smart. I thought they should keep Chavez, whom Texas signed rather inexpensively. But they were one win away from leading the league, and if they had hit at all in the last two months of the season they would have won the division.

Danny: If the Brewers non-tender Schoop, should the Yankees go after him to play 2b and move Gleyber to SS? Schoop was worth 3.8 fWAR 2 years ago but just 0.5 fWAR last year
Keith Law: I would think Schoop would get a lot of interest as a free agent for that reason. His approach, never great, cratered last year, but there’s no reason to think he can’t regain what he was prior to 2018 – he’s not old and he’s not hurt.

Bob in Houston: Would you say Josh James is the #3 prospect in the Astros organization?
Keith Law: He’s in their top 5. I would prefer not to commit to a more specific answer now, while I’m still working on the rankings.

Ben: Surprised by Donaldson taking 1 yr deal? Next year’s 3B market is strong with Arenado & Rendon, which will hurt JD. I figured he’d try to get the best he can now.
Keith Law: Always a chance one of those guys signs an extension, and Donaldson will likely do much better next winter if he’s healthy this year.

Marshall MN: If you were the Twins would you look at transitioning borderline starting level pitchers like Gonsalves and Kohl Stewart into relievers? Any additional ceiling for those guys out of the pen?
Keith Law: Stewart yes, Gonsalves no because I think he can start.

JJ: Who would you rather play at 3rd for the next 5 years: Andujar or Devers
Keith Law: Devers.

Liam: How many innings do you think Touki pitches in MLB next year, and what kind of performance would you expect from him? Mid-rotation arm with flashes of a #1?
Keith Law: Your prediction sounds right to me. I think he makes 20 starts.

Rob: Will you be at Pax Unplugged at all this weekend? Anything you’re particularly interested in seeing?
Keith Law: I will be there all weekend. I have some appointments with publishers to see a few new titles, but I think I got glimpses of most of them at Gen Con. There are one or two I know about that might not be public yet but that sound intriguing. I’m hoping to just play more games this year too – at Gen Con I was basically just going to meetings and speaking on panels all day each day.

JJ: Are you writing a ‘Players I Was Wrong About’ article this offseason? Any obvious standouts?
Keith Law: I wrote it in September, as usual.

AGirlHasNoName: Are the Cubs going to non-tender Russell tomorrow, or am I just hopefully reading the Torreyes trade tea leaves?
Keith Law: I would non-tender him, but I don’t know their plans, and I don’t think Torreyes has anything to do with the decision.

Roberto: I have a preschool daughter who enjoys Jaipur but has trouble with other games like Splendor. Are there any other games you can think of that are as simple to pick up as Jaipur?
Keith Law: Lost Cities was the first game like that I introduced to my daughter. She liked Carcassonne when she was four, at least on the app, but at that age she played it more like a puzzle than a real game (and we didn’t keep score with her).

Jack: Would a package of Sean Murphy, Dustin Fowler, and Sheldon Neuse get Syndergaard to Oakland?
Keith Law: No.

Greg: Rumor mill has the Pirates open to trading Cervelli. Do you think Elias Diaz is an every day catcher? Do you think his 2 WAR in 82 games is legit? Thanks!
Keith Law: I think Diaz is a soft regular, probably not a 4 WAR guy but very likely a 2-2.5 WAR guy.

Dr. Bob: I don’t believe that the average Republican lawmaker doesn’t believe scientists down in their hearts. I think they just don’t want to hurt current economic growth and are just trying to push the problem down the road when they will be gone.
Keith Law: Very likely. Or they take money from entities that produce lots of CO2 or methane and figure they’ll be long dead when the earth is hotter.

Harrisburg Hal: It’s time to get rid of our Henckels knife set my wife and I received as a wedding gift 17 years ago. Would you buy separate components or get another knife set? I think you’ve recommended some Victorinox and Wustof knives in the past. Still a good place to start looking? I think I’d like to pick up a couple options to get a feel for weight/material.
Keith Law: Yes, and just do selected knives. A set will give you lots of knives you won’t use.

JG: Do the Twins have any top 10 prospects on your list? Top 20?
Keith Law: I’ll just say I think their system is loaded.

TJ: Klaw, ever had anything from Zingerman’s in Ann Arbor, MI? Great sandwiches, and my wife is going crazy baking stuff out of their cookbook I bought her. Also, and Tigers prospects that we can hope to see in Detroit this season?
Keith Law: Yes, went there ten years ago, really liked it. I think you’ll see Daz, Burrows, and Manning at some point.
Keith Law: Maybe Rogers but he’s not that good a prospect.

Buck Thompsonville: do any front offices use RBI or W’s for evaluation in any capacity anymore?
Keith Law: No. Just broadcasters.

Cthomp: I know you really like Dom Smith. However after what we’ve seen, I have a hard time seeing future impact with his bat. Can you maybe help me see what you see? Sometimes it just doesn’t pan out and I wonder if your confidence in him has dropped at all.
Keith Law: Smith is 23 and has had less than a full season’s worth of major-league at bats.

Betsy: What do you see in Willy Adames moving forward? Does he stick at SS and will his hit/power continue to improve?
Keith Law: Don’t think he’s a SS. Very much think his batting average will improve.

kgbos: Based on your board game list I picked up Ticket to Ride for family Thanksgiving. All of us were playing for the first time but I won every time (small sample size) to the point others lost interest. Do we need to find another game or do I need to sit out in the near future so they can get more accustomed to the game and strategy?
Keith Law: Might depend on how you played – the 1910 expansion isn’t expensive and introduces some better route cards that may balance the game out, again depending on why you won.

Todd: Higher ceiling, Everson Pereira or Estevan Florial?
Keith Law: Probably Florial, but his flaws are bigger.

Daniel: Hi Keith, always enjoy reading your work and as a scientist, I greatly appreciate your continued push against anything anti-science.
Keith Law: With the popular media often unwilling or ill-equipped to do so, those of us with platforms have some obligation to speak out on issues where the science is clear and the opposing view is just bullshit.

Daniel: Oops! Meant to send the following question with my previous statement: as a Reds fan, should I be cautiously optimistic about the team? I think the Bell hiring (and his staff) was really well thought out and he brings a diverse set of experiences to the table.
Keith Law: I like everything I’ve heard about Bell. Pretty good offseason for managerial hirings, I think.

Trevor: You can take Beltre over Chipper, I just don’t agree with it. Does WAR factor in playoff games?
Keith Law: No, it doesn’t, nor should it since players don’t get to play in the same number of games. Remember that the question was where the players ranked AS THIRD BASEMEN. Beltre played 761 more games at third than Jones did, and was substantially better on defense. You can disagree, but you have to come correct.

JJ: If MLB expands, those 2 cities should be: ________
Keith Law: If MLB expands, they should put part of the expansion fees into building stadiums in the new markets. Portland, OR, and Austin have long been the two best answers to that question, but I’d bet neither electorate would support public funding for a stadium.

Adam Trask: Barring any major trades and given that their young talent pans out, when do you see the Padres being a contender?
Keith Law: As soon as 2020.

DH: Can Luis Robert be a 20/20 guy? Is he still 2 years away?
Keith Law: I’m telling you, this player does not exist.

Byron Buxton: Tell me how to fix me.
Keith Law: What’s broken? Buxton wasn’t healthy last year.

kbrown: The A’s aren’t at all likely to replicate 97 wins again next year, but with the other AL West teams in rebuild or hurt (LAA) could you see the A’s repeating as a WC team with 90+ wins?
Keith Law: I would bet against this.

SC: Keith– quick follow-up– Mets said they might trade one of Kelenic, Dunn or Giminez, but not two. Seems like you would rank Giminez last in that group. Would that make a Cano trade (i.e., Cano-Diaz for Bruce, Giminez and filler) more palatable to you?
Keith Law: Yes, that wouldn’t bother me. Then it becomes a question of whether the Mets are right to pursue wins in 2019 at all.

Germolene: Did Jamie Moyer even pump it up to 84?
Keith Law: Jamie Moyer was left-handed, and probably still is.

Mike: What level of prospect(s) could the M’s get in return for Hanniger?
Keith Law: I think he’s their most valuable trade asset. Everyday player with huge production and five years (I think) of control remaining. That’s where you ask for the four-prospect, two of whom are top 100 at least, sort of return

Al: Seigler and Breaux both stick at catcher? Either project as a “guy”? Thanks.
Keith Law: Seigler is a catcher, Breaux is not.

Sam: I have a son that just turned 3. I saw that you said you played Jaipur with your daughter at 4. When did you introduce games to her and what were they? (Sorry if you’ve answered this a million times)
Keith Law: At 4. She’d see us playing games at the table or on our iPods at the time and want to try them. She liked the Carcassonne app because it was a matching game to her and I think she liked the clicking sound she’d get with a correct move. Lost Cities was pretty straightforward – to play that at all, you just have to know your numbers 1 through 10, and then the adult can guide the child through the one big decision (to play a card or hold on).

Jake Lawson: Does Clint Frazier have a future in the Bronx, or would a trade is best avenue to playing time? He still has some pretty good upside, doesn’t he?
Keith Law: He has some upside, not a star, can’t see any role for him in the Bronx.

Nat: Keith, do you have advice for someone who never really had anxiety until the past couple of years? Seems to be worse the past few months and can’t see a counselor until next year either. Any tips?
Keith Law: Try some meditation – simple breathing meditations, sometimes called ‘awareness of breath’ – and talk to your PCP about whether a low dose of medication, like an SSRI, might help.

Todd: Were you high on Brien Taylor as a prospect way back in the 90s?
Keith Law: Brien Taylor is only 18 months older than I am.

Mick: Beautifully named Italian Reds infielder Leonardo Seminati appears to be a clone of Alex Liddi. Hopefully he’s in the bigs much longer.
Keith Law: As do I. Perhaps then I’ll finally get that long-awaited scouting trip to Italy.
Keith Law: Thank you all for the questions this week. I’m planning to chat again next Thursday, and then skip the following week for the winter meetings. I’m back to the phones now to work on the prospect rankings. Have a great weekend and if you are at PAX Unplugged here in Philly, please say hi if you spot me.

Keith Law: Hate if you want to hate. It’s Klawchat.

Bruce: Does Corbin Burnes project as a top of the rotation starter or more of a mid? Should I be optimistic about the Brewers young starting pitching with Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta?
Keith Law: I think he’s more of a #2 starter, above league average, not someone who’s top 15 in MLB. I think Woodruff is a mid-rotation guy. Never a big Peralta fan – he’s too dependent on one pitch and the deception it generates.

Ken (Cleveland): I can’t decide what Corbin is. Assuming my Yankees (like I own them I know) sign him to a 4/110 or 5/130 type contract. what is he for the next 3-4 years. Is he a 4.5 WAR #2 or a 3.5 WAR #3?
Keith Law: There is no way anyone, especially not I, could pretend to offer that kind of precision in a forecast.

addoeh: Will you do your traditional Periscope chat while you spatchcock a turkey this year, even if you aren’t hosting? Maybe you can do the chat while making GBC!
Keith Law: Depends on what else I have scheduled for Tuesday. Hitting the road Wednesday, so that’s out.

Moe Mentum: I think you would make an ideal host for Jeopardy! when Alex Trebek retires (soon). Or at least a contestant. Any interest in auditioning?
Keith Law: I feel like they want someone with a very neutral personality to host that show. That’s … not me.

Bruce: Does Scott Kingery stick long term at SS? Do you expect to see more productivity from him at the plate this year?
Keith Law: Not a shortstop.

JP: what’s your evaluation of Michael King? the stat-line scouts think he’s a valuable piece, but seems more like an up-and-down reliever.
Keith Law: Reliever. You seemed to anticipate my response that you shouldn’t scout the stat line.

Moe Mentum: Hall of Fame question. As the list of enshrinees continually grows, would you endorse the establishment of a “tiering” system to rank the members based on (revisionist) merit? Or perhaps purging some less deserving members from membership? Or do you favor just leaving things alone?
Keith Law: Just leave things alone. But expand the ballot to at least 12 spots.

PhilliePhanDan: I know Kingery needs some more time, but do you have any thoughts on some other former Phillies prospects who seem to have not met expectations? ie, JP Crawford, Nick Pivetta, Roman Quinn, Dylan Cozens,
Keith Law: Crawford has a lot of untapped upside, and I think it’s up to him to decide what kind of player he wants to be. Pivetta has reached his ceiling. I was never a big Cozens fan and think he’s an extra guy at most. Quinn’s issue is staying on the field. He could sneak into a regular role if he stayed healthy.

Nate: What kind of return could the D-Backs reasonably expect for Greinke? True prospects, or just a salary dump.
Keith Law: True prospects. He’s good.

Ryan: I am sure someone is going to pay Bryce Harper $300M+, but is that really money well spent? Will he be able to live up to that contract? He has had 1 great year, 3 good years, and 3 bad years. If you pay that amount of money, are you getting the guy with a 10 WAR or the guy that has a sub 2 WAR two out of the last three years?
Keith Law: One of those sub 2 WAR years was due to playing through an injury, not lack of ability. I think he and Machado are worth that.

Bruce: How do you decide what books to read next? How come theres no website with an algorithm that tells you what you mike like based on what you have read.
Keith Law: I mostly read books in the order in which I bought or acquired them, since that’s how I put them on my shelf. As for how I choose what to buy, it’s a combination of things – authors I like, book lists/rankings I decide to work through, reader & friend recommendations, sometimes just browsing a bookstore and having a spine or cover catch my eye.

Brint: Assuming good health and ignoring service time, is Sixto good enough right now to help the MLB team? Anything he still needs to work on?
Keith Law: Yeah, kind of everything except throwing hard. Not MLB ready.

Bmosc: Time for Wilbon to step away from the mic: He argues that “winning the damn game” is more important than ERA in determining the Cy Young award. Such an antiquated way of thinking.
Keith Law: Yes. I don’t know what his knowledge is like on other sports, but when Wilbon talks baseball, he reflects a philosophy that is 20 years behind even the laggards inside the sport itself.

addoeh: Now that the election is over, do you know if Soros will continue to compensate us for protests until 2020 or will I have to find a real job in the meantime?
Keith Law: I haven’t gotten a check from him in years.

Rick Sanchez: There are 5600 members of the National Guard doing nothing in a desert right now with no AC who are going to miss Thanksgiving with their families, all so that Trump could squeeze a few more votes for the midterms from those willing to buy his BS. It’s also worth noting there hasn’t been a peep about the caravan post-midterms, after touting it as the effing apocalypse beforehand.
Keith Law: Yep. Support are troops (sic).

Ben: Reaction to Betsy DeVos’ proposal which makes it easier for sexual predators to get away with their crimes? What planet does she reside on?
Keith Law: I thought the swamp was drained!

Nate (Seattle): What’s your thoughts about Orlando Arcia’s bat? Is there still hope of him being an above average regular?
Keith Law: I’m still a buyer. I see an above average regular.

Dave: I’ve seen you say you don’t read popular fiction but you do read a lot of modern literature. For lay people, what is the line between the two? How is it determined what counts as ‘literature’ and what doesn’t?
Keith Law: Does it matter? That’s a serious question, not a flippant response. I don’t see where the distinction matters to anyone but the person reading the books.

Rob: I’m in new oreleans for a conference. Heard/been to any places you would recommend to eat?
Keith Law: Cochon/Cochon Butcher.

Ryan: what can the twins do to help rebuild?
Keith Law: Their system is very strong. I suppose they could trade from it to speed things up, but I’d recommend staying the course.

Rob: Any thoughts on the Orioles hire at GM?
Keith Law: Really strong choice, especially with Mejdal coming along to build their analytics department (which I think had nobody left?).

Brandon J: Good day sir. I was wondering if you’ve had a chance to see Jordan sheffield this fall? Looks like he’s working only in relief
Keith Law: I did. Not great. Arm strength, that was it.

Joe: Have the Braves started to fill out their International Scouting Department yet?
Keith Law: No since they can’t really spend for another year.

Mike: did you see Pearson pitch in AZL? he seemed to progress, do you see him as a starter or reliever?
Keith Law: AFL (not AZL, I know what you meant). Was awful for me, awful the next outing, gradually improved as the fall went on. Arm strength is absurd, looks like a starter. Reports I got from scouts who saw him late were good, still a top 100 guy, and third in that system for me.

Gumby: What are your thoughts on Yordan Alvarez’s ability to play the outfield, and his 2018 as a whole?
Keith Law: Zero chance that giant plays the outfield without someone getting hurt.

Dave: Would Harper be a fit at 1B for NY both positionally and as a lefty bat to level out the lineup? And is there really a “bad” contract you could give to either him or Machado? Two 26 year old future HoFers reaching UFA seems pretty unprecedented.
Keith Law: Waste of his athleticism.

Jill: What do Harvard College alumni, past and present, think of Harvard Extension School?
Keith Law: I can’t say I know enough to have an opinion.

Zach: The Reds pursuing top-line pitching in the middle of an unfinished rebuild feels like when I pull the Thanksgiving turkey two hours early because the cook time is done even though the bird’s not ready. No reason to empty the farm to gain 5 wins on a 70 win team. Agreed?
Keith Law: Agreed. Not sure they get it, though.

Joe: I understand if a voter refuses to vote for pitchers for MVP because he sees it as a position player’s award. I don’t necessarily agree with it, but I understand it. But it really doesn’t make sense when a writer gives de Grom a 5th place vote. If you see him as eligible, how can you possibly justify having him 5th on the ballot?
Keith Law: I agree with your second point, but as for the first one, it is definitively NOT a position player’s award. If you refuse to consider pitchers, that is your right … but DON’T FUCKING VOTE. Give the ballot to someone who will follow the actual guidelines.

Adam: If Thor is traded to SDP, realistically, what top prospect should they target? Gore? Baez?
Keith Law: Worth remembering that the Padres tend to show interest in everybody good – Preller is super aggressive and always exploring options. I would guess they’ll be linked to a lot of trade targets this winter. If I’m the Mets, I insist on Tatis. If I’m Preller, there is no way I give up Tatis. (shrug)

Mac: Where do you think the Sox will move Yoan Moncada? I can’t see a move to 3B or CF working out. He has ability but very little desire to be a good defensive player. They should just plop him in LF and let him concentrate on hitting the baseball.
Keith Law: I don’t know anything about his desire to be a good defensive player or lack thereof. I do know the infield is kind of tough for him given how he fields, but I thought CF would work with his speed and how fast he goes from 0 to whoa.

Guest: First, love your food reviews. My two friends and I relied on your Arizona Eats restaurant guide for our trip to the AFL and you were spot on. One highlight was Ocotillo, where I got the baked lumache pasta I’m still thinking about, five weeks later. Speaking of AFL, we were there in the first week and I was hoping to see some exciting play out of Estevan Florial but wasn’t impressed in the couple games I saw (small sample size and untrained scouting eyes acknowledged). His performance (at least in his stat line) doesn’t seem to have improved since. What do you see in him these days?
Keith Law: Same as last year – the guy doesn’t recognize pitch types well at all, chases too often, swings and misses way too often. Huge tools but no sign he’s converting that into the skills he’ll need to be even an average regular.

Rob: I asked back in June your Metal album of the year and you went with Tribulation. Still the case? FWIW I’m goo
Keith Law: I’d have to think about that one … the Riverside album was great, Toundra was great, solid but uneven records from Horrendous, Omnium Gatherum (maybe not uneven so much as lacking any standout tracks), Voivod, High on Fire.

D: Are there any non-baseball sporting events that you regularly watch?
Keith Law: Nope.

Mike: The starting 3B, SS, 2B for 2019 Chicago Cubs are___,____,_____
Keith Law: Bryant, Baez, TBD. I would still like to think they turn the page on Russell, with Baez emerging as a good shortstop who’s far more productive with the bat.

Chad: Do you think Max Fried has shown enough to be an impact starter? Or is he more of a back-end rotation and bullpen piece now?
Keith Law: I would absolutely start him now to see. He has the CB and CH to be an impact starter. The FB plays a little down from its velocity, so I think he’ll have to either have better command or, more likely, pitch more with his secondary stuff to get to that level.

Chan: Thoughts on the Marlins rebrand so far?
Keith Law: The what by the who?

Denji: Will the story on what’s going on behind the scenes in the Astros front office ever come out? I understand that sources might not want to go on record and the situation is still fluid, but there have been so many vague “yeah, there’s a lot going on” statements from writers that it gets a bit frustrating.
Keith Law: I actually don’t know what you’re referring to here. Just all the departures?

Jay: If you were running the Nats and the Lerner family said you can only sign one to a large, long term deal, would you choose Rendon or Harper?
Keith Law: Rendon, because they have Robles/Soto as Harper replacements but nobody behind Rendon.

Rob: It was fun as a Mets fan this week watching the Orioles (!) school the Wilpons on how a new FO is assembled. Ugh.
Keith Law: I had that thought too – the Orioles have so long been the punch line for ownership jokes, but they hired one of the best candidates and interviewed at least two more very good candidates (even with some folks declining interviews), while the Mets did something I can’t really justify.

Frank : What do you think the ceiling for Alex Lange is? Could he be a bottom or mid rotation guy for the cubs? Thanks.
Keith Law: Always been a reliever for me.

Josh: Lucas Giolito is only 24 but its feeling like he’s at a real crossroads. What does he need to do to be a useful ML pitcher?
Keith Law: I had him as a breakout candidate this year, only to see his mechanics fall apart right out of spring training, but I’m going to double down on it for 2019. It’s really about mechanics and staying healthy this year.

Ryan: Is Joe Mauer a Hall of Famer in your eyes?
Keith Law: He’s very borderline for me. I think he’ll have a hard time getting in, though.

Jennyfer: I read a lot, not as much as you. Do you finish everything you start? I get books based off recommendations, but if after 25-30 pages it doesn’t grip me, I’m out.
Keith Law: I bail on books too – not that often, but I do. I’ve quit books after a page or two if the prose really bothers me, or if there’s something early in the book that I find really distasteful.

Nolan: As a Padre fan who hated the Hosmer signing, how worried should I be about a deal for Thor? He’s better than Hosmer, obviously, but do you see any way the prospect cost would be worth it for a team in SDs position?
Keith Law: Probably not. I don’t see the point in such a deal right now, but maybe ownership is demanding more wins in 2019.

Dan: I know you’re not the biggest Gimenez fan, but say the Indians value him as a top 35/40 prospect, does Gimenez, Justin Dunn/Peterson, Matz and Dom Smith make some sense as a Kluber package for both teams ?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: I mean, he’s not a top 35/40 prospect for anyone. I’m not sure how to just assign the guy value he doesn’t have.

Alex: Hi Keith, seeing as though the Mets probably won’t sign Manny where do they go for impact bat? I don’t think trading Thor is the answer as I think his best days are still ahead of him. Do you think wheeler could get a good bat or maybe a buy low guy? Missing out on cain for leadoff and CF last year was a huge mistake. Also do you see new GM considering such things as I don’t know, defense being important?
Keith Law: If BVW has the same payroll restrictions Alderson has, then he’s better off trying to build from within. The system is in good shape; a deGrom trade would help that tremendously. But the free agent market would just be a waste of money for them, since they’ll be playing in the dangerous middle tier, not the top.

Raphael: Your take on the Mariners/Lorena Martin situation?
Keith Law: I know absolutely nothing beyond what’s been published and don’t feel qualified to comment.

Joe: Keith, thanks for the awesome insights. Interested in your take on a “change of scenery” swap of 2 underperforning young pitchers with some past health issues and equal number of years of control left…Dylan Bundy for Vince Velasquez. Fair deal for both sides?
Keith Law: Bundy’s health issues don’t seem “past” to me. I wouldn’t do that if I were the Phillies.

TK: Did you see Will Craig in the AFL? What do you think his floor/ceiling are?
Keith Law: I did, and saw him in August too. I think below-average or fringe regular.

Joe: Did we see enough of Julio Urias at the end of the season to better gauge his chances of being a starter again?
Keith Law: I didn’t. Besides, it’s a medical question, not so much a baseball one.

addoeh: Regarding the Braves not having an intl scouting department because they currently can’t sign anyone, would make any sense to have a few just to provide some evaluation baselines for players they could to trade for in the coming years?
Keith Law: Probably not worth the expense, although at some point they have to ramp up because there are already July 2nd, 2021 players getting locked up by teams.

Kevin: What’s the appropriate amount for a HS kid to pay for a weekend showcase ?
Keith Law: Nothing. Don’t pay for showcases.

JP: Vlad Jr and Robles the clear favorites for 2019 ROYs?
Keith Law: Vlad Jr. yes. Tatis vs Robles would be a fun debate; Robles has the job, clearly, while Tatis is the better player but may not be up until June.

Dave: Some Pirate fans seem to be overvaluing Tucker and Craig based on their AFL performance. Despite all the evidence this couple weeks doesn’t matter, do they have anything else to hang their hats on?
Keith Law: Both fringe prospects. AFL performance is really not reliable.

M: What is the market for Nelson Cruz. Seems like it’s bottoming out for aging players of this type even though he’s been successful
Keith Law: Very limited – what contenders have a full time DH spot open?

Kacey: I coach high school soccer. It’s not apples to apples with baseball of course as it’s more of a team game, but we have so many different personalities, effort levels and a ton of kids with emotional development issues. Do you find it hard to scout high school players because other than asking around (and if a scout asked me, I’d probably tell her most of my kids are great in order to support the kids) it’s hard to find out their true make up or know what it’s going to be? The difference of our kids who come back after one year of college is incredible.
Keith Law: I think that’s one of the hardest and most important parts of an area scout’s job, and something teams like the Astros, who have virtually eliminated area scouts, will miss on badly in the draft.

John: If the Braves trade Pache will they regret it? Why?
Keith Law: Yes, because he’s going to be really good?

Dee: Do you think Steven Avery did it?
Keith Law: The Atlanta lefty did something?

Adam Trask: When do you think the Padres profile as contenders? And how should that guide them this offseason?
Keith Law: That’s my objection – not this year, not with the Dodgers and Rockies still good and the Padres’ talent just starting to reach the majors, and a dead spot at first base and not much value from Myers. They’re not ready to make that big splash.

Tom: I’m not buying the Cubs not having the money to make a run at Harper/Machado. Everyone keeps saying they are at the top of budget but anyone who sees the organization knows they’re swimming in money especially with a TV deal a year away. Do you really think Theo doesn’t have the means to go after Harper or is it smokescreen?
Keith Law: Of course they have the money. Probably 28 teams have the money. It’s about willingness to spend it.

Randall: Cochon in NOLA is always a must for us. Any change to your opinion on Nico after strong AFL season? At Wrigley by 2020?
Keith Law: No change – didn’t see good contact from him, smart player, limited ceiling, moves fast but don’t see over a regular.

Zac: Where would you start Casey Mize this year and would you be surprised if he reached the majors this year?
Keith Law: Start in AA. Comes to the majors when he’s ready, which is probably this year.

John: How do you feel about Eminem as a rapper? I’d presume you have no time for him, given his history of um, problematic lyrical content – but wondered if you had a favorable opinion of his skills independent of the awful stuff he says.
Keith Law: His peak output – Slim Shady, Marshall Mathers, Eminem Show – established him as one of the best MCs of all time both for technical skill and lyrical ingenuity. I find a lot of his views to be trash, though, and never listen to him myself. From Encore on, I’ve had no use for him, because I think he’s also lost his fastball and still says the same hateful shit.

Mike: Is the AFL good for player evaluations, or too small of a sample? I’m trying to be encouraged with the hitting of Cole Tucker, but I’m not sure if its just SSS. Still not showing much power though
Keith Law: Great for scouting, bad for stat-line reading.

EG: Do you support the electoral college for presidential elections or would you prefer a true popular vote?
Keith Law: True popular vote. The Framers didn’t trust the voters to make choices of which the Framers would approve. Instead they created a system you can game.

JP: Yankees Twitter seems to think Florial is a 5-tool stud, while ignoring that the Hit Tool requires striking out in less than 35% of ABs. What’s a realistic projection for him? Outfielder Moncada?
Keith Law: Yeah, four tools, but the fifth one is a big deal. Moncada was better at the same age, though.

Ryan: Do you buy the Cubs actually are shopping Kris Bryant? I really like Buster Olney but that article screemed click bait and seemed to take what Theo said out of context.
Keith Law: They’re not shopping Bryant. I’m sure of it.

Denji: Yeah, I’m referring to the departures. Some people left before they had new jobs, and it seems like Fast made what reads as a lateral move (though I might be wrong). Yesterday in Kiley McDaniel’s chat when he was asked if there was a mass exodus or it was just a coincidence, said, “Lets just say there’s a lot going on there.”
Keith Law: Fast and Mejdal reached the end of their contracts and chose to go elsewhere. I don’t know what Kiley was referring to.

John: We have several of the board games you recommend each year and it’s become a Christmas tradition to buy two from Santa for the family. Recommend a game or two that came out this year?
Keith Law: Everdell, Charterstone, Reef, Forbidden Sky all come to mind. Probably forgetting some. I updated my top 100 all-time list this week.

Kacey: I was looking at Joe Mauer’s draft year. Not only were there only 3 All Stars from the first round (Mauer, Prior and Texiera), but the next best player drafter was probably Gavin Floyd and most players didn’t make the majors. Plenty of great players in other rounds. It seems the last 5-7 years or so first round picks make a quicker impact. Has scouting gotten that much better?
Keith Law: I think teams have gotten better in two major ways – they’ve incorporated more analytics into the process, from using traditional stats to now working with Trackman data, and they’ve started to value high school pitching differently, both drafting it later and treating those pitchers more carefully after they sign.

Steve: Should I be excited about any of the players the Pirates received in return for Moroff and Luplow?
Keith Law: Tahnaj Thomas is the sleeper. Least known of the three but an upside play. Chance for plus FB/CB combo, good body. The Bahamas are starting to churn out some serious dudes.

T: Joel Sherman seems to be super against signing Manny Machado because of hustle concerns. This whole thing is overblown, right?
Keith Law: Yeah, totally overblown for me.

Mike: Can you name names of anyone in the industry – player or office- who you walked away disappointed after meeting them? Either they’re a jerk or just overall not impressive person.
Keith Law: I could, but I’m certainly not going to name them publicly.

Damon: Donaldson a good option for the Mets? Obvious injury risk but could provide best production for someone who won’t cost Machado/harper money since the Wilpons won’t spend that much
Keith Law: Yes. If I’m Donaldson’s agent, I’m trying to sign the best one-year deal I can, hoping he gets healthy and posts a pre-injury stat line again.

Jared: For teams looking to rebuild, what allowed the Brewers do it so quickly? I know they had Gomez and Lucroy to deal, but still seems way faster than most.
Keith Law: They’ve hit on a lot of gambles, like the Chacin deal. That’s to their credit.

Brian: You’ve discussed the Jays system as obviously strong at the top but not as deep as other outlets seem to think. Given how 2018 turned out, what do you think is a realistic team outcome for 2019? And is true contention anywhere on the horizon?
Keith Law: I don’t see the pitching in that system to make them contenders any time soon; they’ll have to add it from outside, most likely.

Jared: I know Hiura didn’t hit for you while at the AFL, but do you think he is a future star with the bat?
Keith Law: Yeah, I am not really worried about it. Every scout I’ve ever asked about him has said they believe he’ll hit.

JG: BA didn’t have Nick Gordon in the top 10 Twins prospects? Has he fallen that much in your eyes?
Keith Law: He was atrocious in AAA – like he was swinging a wet newspaper. Hard to overlook that, and like I said earlier, that’s a really strong system.

Aaron: Who says no?
Keith Law: I do. Like, all the time.

Mike: I like board games but usually don’t have others to play with. Do you play with family? Friends? Groups?
Keith Law: Yep. All of the above.

Shaun: Would Manny Machado’s comments about hustling give you any pause about committing to him longterm?
Keith Law: Not a moment’s hesitation.

Steve: I’m a middle school baseball coach, and my varsity head coach loves the bunt a little too much for my taste. Is there a good way to approach this without damaging a very good working relationship? Or at lower levels of competition, does the relative lack of defensive skill and (at times) talent discrepancy make bunting a more valid strategy?
Keith Law: I know this book you could buy for him that covers bunting … but you are correct in that the sac bunt becomes a better percentage play the further down the ladder you go. Then the question is whether you are actually doing your job of teaching the kids to be better players, or simply taking advantage of children learning to play defense so you can win a few extra games.

Chris: Not sure if you heard about the SD guy who didnt vote for deGrom then hung up 10 seconds into a NY radio hit about his vote. Turns out he’s been covering HS sports in the SD area for some time. How can we purge these relics who arent even covering the sport anymore and still think pitcher Ws mean jack?
Keith Law: He hung up because the NY radio host attacked his integrity. That writer gave some of his free time to appear on that station without compensation. It was bullshit and I have no problem with him hanging up.

Greg: If he does come all the way back from Tommy John (no guarantee, of course), what is the role for Julian Merryweather? Is he a pure reliever or is there back of the rotation ability as well?
Keith Law: Sixth starter type for me.

Mike: i hear the comments that Boras made about teams not spending and then question why the BlueJays would not spend to compete. They have the Canadian market and huge TV numbers when the team is good. Did you hear Boras’ rant? i assume you agree with him
Keith Law: I do. He’s right.

Ted: When do your top prospect reports come out? I look forward to them every winter.
Keith Law: At some point in late january. I don’t know the dates just yet.

Tom: Were Robles and Soto top-tier international free agents? Product of scouting, or luck? To be in the position to lose Harper and fill in with that kind of talent is exceptional.
Keith Law: Soto was – he signed for $1.5 million. Robles signed for $225,000, so he wasn’t top-tier but not just signed to fill out rosters. They’ve done a good job on the international front.

Bruce: Do you see Josh James as a difference maker out of the bullpen? Could he be a starter?
Keith Law: Bullpen for sure. Maybe a starter. But the floor is high.

Aiden Elash: Have you much of Eric Pardinho?
Keith Law: I have not seen him live.

Ted: This might be weird, but have you ever thought about auctioning off your time for charity? I would love to sit down and pick your brain about baseball for a few hours.
Keith Law: I have done this at least twice before, attending games with readers who donated to a charity that approached me to ask if I’d do so. Obviously it would have to be a charity I would support myself, but yes, I’m up for it.
Keith Law: Sorry, had to take the banana bread out of the oven.

Chris: Did you see the Haren smackdown of Mulder on the twitter last night? Inject that into my veins.
Keith Law: Yes, I did, and yes, please to have more of that. Mark’s tweet was privilege exemplified.

Don: You are Mike Elias – you have a rebuild in front of you. Where do you start other than the first pick in the draft in June?
Keith Law: Elias’ first order of business is going to be rebuilding the organization’s staff. Player development has been bad for years. They’ve barely done anything internationally for a decade. The amateur side has fared better, but they’ve also lost a lot of staff in the turnover, even firing some guys within the last two weeks, which I think is totally bizarre (at that point, just wait for the new GM to come in). And they need a manager. Those decisions will have as much or more of a lasting impact on the future of the franchise as any trade Elias might make this winter.

Ted: Are you a believer in Corey Ray still? His hit tool was awful, but his other tools seemed to bounce back last year.
Keith Law: I didn’t see him in 2018 (I saw him a few times in 2017), but scouts who did told me he was selling out for power, so the K rate was high but he posted the high HR total. That’s not a great formula for long-term success and also not the hitter I thought he’d become.

Chris: Is Albert Almora an everyday center fielder for a contending club or just a platoon bat/defensive replacement? His 2nd half was seemingly nothing but weak contact left and right.
Keith Law: I think he’s a 50 – a solid regular in CF. Plus defense, contact without power.

Andrew: What are your thoughts on books on tape? I feel like I am cheating but at home I am chasing a 3 and 1 year old around and my 1 hour commute is a perfect time to “read”
Keith Law: I go through maybe a dozen audiobooks a year. Sometimes it’s actually better than paper, sometimes it’s worse.

Bill: Do you think young baseball fans would actually become more educated about the game if they were broadcast with no announcers?
Keith Law: I mean, it’d be nice if we didn’t have playoff game broadcasters talking about how bad the sport has become.

Ryan : Enjoying a snow day with the kids here in Siberia, err, Syracuse. My 5 year old loves playing baseball in the backyard and basement, but I have reservations about T-ball this spring. In so many ways it doesn’t even resemble baseball! Am I overthinking this one? As long as he’s having fun, right?
Keith Law: If he’s having fun, that’s all that matters.
Keith Law: Well, having fun, and isn’t at risk of getting hurt, but I don’t think T-ball poses much chance of that.

Bruce: Do you see Stephen Gonsalves as a mid rotation starter or could he be more?
Keith Law: Less.

Aiden Elash: Earlier you mentioned that Nate Pearson is 3rd in the blue jays system in your opinion. Where do you then place Danny Jansen who seems to be 3rd on most other lists? Does this mean you are lower on Jansen than others or higher on Pearson?
Keith Law: I don’t know or particularly care where others rank players. Pearson is over Jansen on my list; Pearson has huge upside Jansen lacks, and Jansen is probably below-average on defense.

Luke: What age did your daughter start playing board games with you (and what were some of the first ones you introduced her to?)
Keith Law: She started asking to play around age 4. At that point we would simply games so she could play along but we wouldn’t really keep score. Carcassonne was an early favorite because she loved the app – it’s like a matching game at that point.

Tim: Smith or Alonso for you? What should the Mets do with the other one?
Keith Law: Smith for me, but I think Alonso for them, and ultimately that’s the opinion that matters, not mine.
Keith Law: OK, I have some phone calls scheduled so I need to wrap. Thanks so much for joining me this week. There will be no chat next week for obvious reasons. Have a safe and flavorful Thanksgiving, everyone!

Keith Law: Hang a sign upon the door. Klawchat.

Chris: This Mets GM hire looks dumber and dumber already. Future of the team aside, the fact that existing agents like Boras are wary upfront of dealing with Van Wagenen on any level should’ve made this a non-starter. Bloom or Ng would’ve been great hires.
Keith Law: Boras is wary of dealing with BVW, but I don’t know that any other agents are. I don’t want to generalize from one guy’s comments here. I thought Bloom would have been a great hire, yes.

Bernie: Should the Yankees be looking at Daniel Murphy to fill their 1B/2B issue? Gleyber at SS until Didi is ready to come back then Gleyber to 2B and Murphy to 1B.
Keith Law: No, because Murphy can’t really play second base.

Briggs: KLAW, thanks for the chat as always. I’ve recently been trying to listen to more science focused books on Audible. I’m particularly interested in space/astrophysics and other things in that vein. Do you have any recommendations for books which are informative but accessible?
Keith Law: Einstein’s Cosmos, Spooky Action at a Distance, Uncertainty (David Lindley) all might fit what you’re looking for and I listened to those as audiobooks.

Jon: Keith, thoughts on Stir Candelario’s upside please? Last time I saw scores he was 50 Hit tool and 60 PWR. About right? Thank you in advance for the answer.
Keith Law: I never gave him those scores nor would I.

addoeh: Who are you, who are so wise in the ways of science?
Keith Law: I am Arthur, King of Elwood City.

Ben: I want to learn to make really good homemade pizza. Any books you would recommend on the topic?
Keith Law: The dough I make is from Peter Reinhart’s Bread Baker’s Apprentice, and it’s incredible for making very thin Neapolitan-style crusts. There’s a new pizza book out from Marc Vetri that I’m hoping to pick up to build on that. Of course I need a better oven to really step up my game, but I can turn out decent pizzas by cooking in my regular oven at 500 degrees for six minutes, using a pizza stone set on the oven floor.

Chris: Will Toffey have any value? Seems like a super-sub candidate who can hit righties.
Keith Law: Not to me. I don’t think there’s any hit value there at all.

Joe: I feel the Padres best, most well rounded outfield going forward is Myers, Margot and Cordero. What kind of value would Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe have on the trade market?
Keith Law: Both are essentially extra outfielders. That’s not much value in and of itself but 1) in a package they would both add something because they’re cheap with years of control and 2) it’s always possible another team looks at one or the other and sees a regular.

Kevin: Do you see the White Sox as making reasonable offers to Machado and/or Harper? I’d love to see it, but it’s not in their DNA. As a Sox fan, hopefully I’m wrong.
Keith Law: It would fit, given how close their young talent is, but I would be surprised.

GS(Athens): I’m curious about Royce Lewis sticking at SS. Are there some tangible, concrete skills he has shown improvement on and where would you see his ceiling as a defender there if everything goes right? Also, just moved to Athens, GA and tried Five & Ten. Acheson isn’t in the kitchen anymore of course but it’s still quite tasty!
Keith Law: No, I’m still a skeptic on him at short.

Bmosc: It truly amazes me how many people either don’t care that our President is completely devoid of integrity and about as low character as you can get, or, worse yet, celebrate those facts. I don’t think our country has been this divided in a long time, and it’s virtually impossible to have a rational political discussion anymore.
Keith Law: The White House has been circulating a fake video of yesterday’s press conference, and their pals in state media are further promulgating it. If you’re okay with that, you’re part of the problem.

TD: I’ve been down on Clint Frazier for awhile and wonder what your thoughts were on him and his trade value? To me h is upside is .250 with 20 homers.
Keith Law: Those two numbers don’t give much of a picture. I think he’s a sub-.300 OBP guy even if fully healthy, and while he has 30+ homer power I’m not sure he hits enough to get to it. A .280-.290 OBP with a low .400s slug in a left fielder is probably not a regular. He has to hit for a really high average to make this work. He has the bat speed to do so, but hasn’t shown the approach yet.

Cole: What do you think about the A’s essentially buying 2 lottery tickets in the first round of the past 2 first rounds (Beck and Murray)? The argument is that these are the high ceiling players that they ordinarily wouldn’t be able to afford in the open market? Is this a good strategy?
Keith Law: Good strategy if you’re choosing the right players. Beck was more of a fit for me than murray – and I do like Murray for what he is, but he’s 21 already and busy trying not to get his brains scrambled this fall.

Moe Mentum: Best biography you’ve ever read? How about autobiography?
Keith Law: Best memoir (is that the same as an autobio?) is probably Gabriel García Márquez’s Living to Tell the Tale. Simon Garfield’s Mauve comes to mind for best biography. The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks is biography-adjacent and is also an incredible read.

TREY: Do you see any other priorities for Cubs this offseason? Or is health, Hamels, and 1 or 2 elite relievers enough for deep postseason? I’m lukewarm on current OF and think they need some upgrades.
Keith Law: If they can add Machado or Harper, they should, even though it would create some temporary surplus (which they could use to add relief help). I think they’re a playoff team without that, but can and should try to improve beyond what they are.

Ken (Cleveland): am I crazy to think that the Yankees should avoid a big bat (especially if it costs us Miggy or Justus) and just start the season – Stanton/Hicks/Judge, Sanchez at C, Voit at IB, and Bird as my DH and see what we have
Keith Law: Yeah, I’d say that’s a bit overly optimistic, especially with Sanchez having shoulder surgery and the other two lacking any track record.

Arnold: Is Farhan Zaidi the right choice to remake the Giants or do we need to wait and see who brings in as GM before making that determination?
Keith Law: Great choice. Whoever he brings in as GM will be there to help execute Zaidi’s vision for baseball ops, which I think will be more analytics focused but not to the exclusion of traditional scouting.

xxx(yyy): any date night recipe suggestions to go with pan roasted pork chop?
Keith Law: Pork of any kind goes really well with polenta.

John Olerud: As an Ms fan, may I get your valued opinion on the Zunino trade? Does it seem reasonable? Completely misguided? Or just meh? For Ms fans, this trade seems important in helping to gauge Dipoto’s potential abilities in spearheading what is now a confirmed rebuild. Yes, he’s so far been dubbed “Trader Jerry”, mostly for sacrificing minor-league talent in a last-ditch effort to win. But is this just because of the mandate he had in the first part of his tenure? And do you think he and his team can successfully change course?
Keith Law: Just meh. Backup catcher for fourth outfielder. Some lesser prospects changing hands – Fraley’s probably a fourth outfielder himself, Plassmeyer maybe a fifth starter, threw a tick harder in short stints this summer than as a starter in college.

Nick: Moving forward, would you rather have Albies or Urias?
Keith Law: Albies.

Ben: Re: Boras’ comments about the draft rewarding systematic losing. If a draft is necessary (I don’t see how the owners would ever get rid of it). Why not have the number one pick go to the team with the best record that missed the playoffs, then go down by record from there, with the 10 playoff teams being the last 10 picks. Seems like this would discourage tanking, increase competitive balance, and reward teams that make an effort, but just miss out on the playoffs. Then, instead of tanking for the first pick, teams will need to give full effort to win the first pick. MLB could even market it as another “race” to watch at the end of the season. Seems like it would open up the free agent market too, since more teams have something to play for.
Keith Law: Changing the structure of the draft could improve it but won’t solve the fundamental problem that it screws the players, especially the best players in any draft class.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: I hope you don’t mind answering this, but I know you’re open about your anxiety stuff. I got help about three years ago and I’ve been mostly stable except for a few minor blips here and there. But when I’m stable, I feel like I’m not the same person and I’m living in an altered world that I’m not sure I like. Did you experience something similar?
Keith Law: You may need more time to be in your stable periods to get used to the feeling. I do know what you mean, and yes, the world feels very different when I’m in a good place. It can be weird to have that constant hum of anxiety go silent.

Bruce: What are your thoughts on Jazz Chisholm? Is he a top 100 GUY?
Keith Law: I think he’s a potential superstar.

Allan: Would it make sense to ever make a list of “players who lost their rookie eligibility”, or would the sample be so small that you’d just tell people to refer to your pre-season rankings?
Keith Law: You have it exactly right. I wouldn’t change any of those unless we saw something physically or mechanically new with the players.

Larry: Austin Riley and Soroka get it done for Realmuto?
Keith Law: Highly doubt that.

Jordan: Hey Keith, which team do you feel should go after Realmuto the hardest this winter?
Keith Law: I don’t think any contender has a greater need for him than the Nats.

THE Average Sports Fan: Any hope for Anthony Alford?
Keith Law: Sure, there’s hope. It’s just getting late.

Jason: If you are ignorant to all candidates, is it better to vote straight ticket or not vote? I unfortunately did not make the time to research all of the candidates and elected not to vote because I was uneducated. Did I make the right decision? I know I’m wrong for not paying attention to the candidates.
Keith Law: Does anyone research every single downballot candidate? I had some very local elections here where the Democrat ran unopposed or had only a third-party opponent. Should I have abstained, even though I would say I knew nothing about the candidates beyond that they never did anything so awful that I heard about them? I’d say no. Make sure you’re not voting for a Nazi, or an embezzler, or something like that.

Hank: Can you give us some background on Mike Fast? Seems like a lot of excitement about Atlanta hiring him, but I don’t know much about him.
Keith Law: One of the first people to bring out research on pitch framing – to measure it and show its effects were real and sustainable. Great hire.

Bearry: The Rays have their catcher, but still have some big holes to fill and prospects to deal. Think they can pull in Donaldson and/or trade for a TOR guy like Carrasco/Kluber/Gray?
Keith Law: I’m confused – you said the Rays, and then you’re talking about expensive players.

Danielectomy: Which of the Jays best prospects do you see winding up impact players?
Keith Law: Vlad, Bo, and if healthy Pearson has a shot.

Matt: As an Astros fan, should I be worried about the departures of Mejdal and Fast? Any word on why they left? Career opportunities? Luhnow? The Osuna trade?
Keith Law: I think the team is worse off for their departures, yes.

Deke: When I used to bartend, there was a regular there who was a real jerk. Saw him on a political ad for a Trump-supporting House candidate (Andy Barr) and posted about it on FB. A friend who still bartends there said that was dirty play, calling him out publicly. Fair or foul?
Keith Law: If you don’t work there any more, I’m not sure what you did wrong. Had you worked there, yeah, that could be a problem for your employer.

Jay: The Cardinals seem to be in a period of stagnation. Do you subscribe to the notion a front office can go stale over a long period of time or is that for lack of a better term, “BS”?
Keith Law: I think that’s BS. The team is pretty good. Their biggest problem seems to be that they’re very good all over the diamond and thus don’t have one spot where a huge upgrade is simple and accessible to them.

Jon: Can Baez repeat his 2018 performance or will it be downhill?
Keith Law: I think he can do this again. The question I have is whether he can ever be more – you know, drawing a walk more than once a month.

Joe: Braves are probably going to have to move one of Riley, Pache, and Waters. Will you rank in order of which one is most to least likely to be traded?
Keith Law: I don’t agree with the premise that they “have to move” any of them.

section 34: Do you find baseball more boring than in the past? I do. I know the changes in offensive approach are rational for each individual hitter. But I DVR games: I started doing it so I could skip commercials, but now I hit the 30-second-fast-forward button a lot in between pitches. Are you also finding baseball to have become too slow?
Keith Law: I think there are too many long commercial breaks. We don’t need two-plus minutes of commercials for every pitching change. The game itself is mostly fine although I’d prefer more balls put in play and fewer strikeouts. But the long mid-inning commercial breaks are more damaging to the product.

RSO: Does Andujar, Clint Frazier and Chance Adams get it done for Kluber for the Yanks?
Keith Law: Andujar and two decidedly second- or third-tier prospects? Come on.

Steve: A suggestion for those reading these chats on a web browser (at least Firefox): right-click in the chat window, select “this frame” and then “open frame in new tab” or “open frame in new window”. Instead of the chat being confined to a box in the middle of the page, the chat itself now takes the full tab, is easier to read and allows more of the chat to be displayed on the screen.
Keith Law: Thanks!

B Mand: I have seen a lot of conflicting reports on Dalbec and what the future holds for him. Am I wrong for thinking his skill set is similar to Gallo, maybe with a slightly better glove?
Keith Law: He’s not Gallo. Gallo has more power, and better pitch recognition. Dalbec can defend and really throw, but his ability to pick up spin is not where it needs to be to project him as a regular.

Jeff: Why was the Japanese BCG vaccine recalled in Seoul? I thought vaccines were 100 percent safe?
Keith Law: Because of a manufacturing issue, not anything with the vaccine itself. And the vaccines were still safe – they contained more arsenic than Korean regulations recommended, but still less than 3% of the daily maximum intake considered safe. As for “100 percent safe,” nothing is 100% safe. Advil isn’t. Coffee isn’t. Most vitamins aren’t. Vaccines are safe, in that the risk of adverse effects is extremely small, and most of those adverse effects are themselves trivial.
Keith Law: Good troll job, though, dumbass. Go back to remedial biology.

gavin: Your thoughts for both Tyler O’Neill and Alex Verdugo next season? I’m sure situation plays into this, but do you still believe in both?
Keith Law: Never been a big O’Neill fan; I see too much dead-pull in the swing and approach and a below-average fielder. Verdugo I like but he has no place to play.

mike : My issue with a pizza stone is that the oven has to be on so long, that I feel like I’m wasting power/money……you ever feel that?
Keith Law: No, although most books will recommend heating up the oven for an hour or more, I often find the stone hits temperature sooner than that (an infrared thermometer helps you know).

Austin: There’s a restaurant I follow on Twitter that is misogynistic and awful to people there. Like one giant troll. But there food is BOMB and every time I’ve been there I’ve never seen them treat customers unkind. Should I boycott this place based on their social media presence even though I’ve never seen them actually portrayed like that in real life?
Keith Law: So maybe it’s just that one person running the account? I’d ask at the restaurant.

Bill: Dylan Cease – starter or releiver?
Keith Law: Starter. If he’s healthy at all, he’s very clearly a starter.

Mike: Keller – if I remember you are concerned about a 3rd pitch and he may be destined for bullpen. But what about Paddack and Bryse Wilson? 2 or 3 starter upside?
Keith Law: All three project as starters, but yes, Keller needs a better changeup. Paddack can definitely start without a better breaking ball but it limits his ceiling.

Jax: Will Benson still a quality prospect in your book? I understand his floor is quite low but he seems to have tantalizing upside.
Keith Law: I don’t know what “quality prospect” might mean to you. I am not optimistic about his chances right now.

Jordan: Have the Twins given up on Buxton? If so, I’d love to see some team trade for him and give him 500 PA next season.
Keith Law: I don’t think so. I thought Baldelli might be the ideal manager for him since their on-field skill sets are similar.

Dan: If you’re the Giants, does a 7-10 year contract for Bryce Harper make any sense even with their apparent rebuild in place? Can he be part of the next Even-Year magic?
Keith Law: No, it makes little to no sense to me.

Colin: Keith – can you ease my long-term concerns about Soroka? He looked damn good this season before the injury.
Keith Law: Stuff looked great. Tough arm action that puts stress on the shoulder. Still like him but the risk of further injury is high.

Pat: Kang has claimed he stopped drinking entirely. Doesnt that change your outlook on him?
Keith Law: No.

Big Sister: Does Ronaldo Hernandez stay at catcher? Do you like him or William Contreras better?
Keith Law: I think Hernandez has the better bat and Contreras the better defensive profile. I have Hernandez staying at catcher with some work.

Boa T.: Did Klaw really reference The System in his open? Would the Angels be better served moving Cozart to second and signing Moustakas or someone similar to play 3rd?
Keith Law: I did indeed. Moustakas isn’t any upgrade for them. Better to sign or trade for a second baseman.

Stephen: When do you think Luis Robert makes his appearance in Chicago? We thinking… I don’t know, mid April 2020?
Keith Law: Maybe? Guy has to show he can stay healthy for 20 minutes first.

Dan: Thoughts on the Farhan Zaidi signing? Surprised at all that the Giants went with such a forward-thinking President/GM?
Keith Law: I’m not surprised.

Bob Pollard: The whole “Cubs have no money” thing…do you think this is real or a Theo smokescreen for him to fly under the radar? What do you think they end up doing/what should they do?
Keith Law: The Cubs have plenty of money. The Ricketts may choose not to spend it, but they have it.

Shawn: Do you continue to use any non-drug therapies or techniques for your anxiety? What did you use in the past?
Keith Law: Meditation, exercise, lot of ‘self-care’ techniques including positive sensory stimuli – literally, finding things that calm you or provoke positive reactions in your brain for any or all of your five senses.

Todd: Could Michael Bloomberg beat Trump in 2020? Thoughts on him as a candidate?
Keith Law: I burn incense in my kitchen sometimes for that reason, mostly because baking cookies all day long is not the greatest idea for my health.
Keith Law: Oh god please no. Bloomberg is the last thing we need.

Mat Ji: Hi Keith, What do you make of Bill James’ comments and the backlash he has received?
Keith Law: I thought his comments were wrong and excessively derisive towards players (and labor in general). He’s affiliated with an MLB team, too, which makes it worse.

Pat: Mallex hit .296/.367/.406, 3.4 fWAR. Is he really just a 4th OF?
Keith Law: Yes. Dude had never had a 1-WAR season before then.

Chad: I’ve head Kyle Tucker often get compared to Christian Yelich. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I don’t see how much they have in common other than both being really good prospects. I thought Yelich was farther away from his power than Tucker is now.

Chad: Which Braves arm – Kyle Wright, Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, Touki Touissant, – do you like best long-term?
Keith Law: Touki has the highest upside.

Chris: Do you think the Red Sox moved Darwinson Hernandez to the bullpen to limit his innings, or do they not think he can start in the majors?
Keith Law: Pretty sure it was to limit his innings. I would absolutely keep him as a starter for now.

Bmosc: Klaw, I saw you mention elsewhere (perhaps another chat) that Nashville was one of your favorite Minor League culinary stops. Any favorite restaurants?
Keith Law: In no particular order: Husk, Rolf & Daughters, City House, Catbird Seat, Cochon Butcher, Kuchnia & Keller, Two Ten Jack, Mas Tacos.

Michael Conforto: Why do people vote overwhelmingly in support of progressive ballot measures but not for progressive candidates? Is it just a messaging issue? Is being labeled a Democrat damaging beyond repair to some?
Keith Law: Could be. Not sure anyone knows the answer to that, since it would depend on truthful answers to polls or surveys.

Beau: Is Buddy’s AFL production a SSS or has he made adjustments since struggling in AA?
Keith Law: Buddy Reed? SSS in a hitter’s environment. Swing is still the same (not good). Which reminds me, I was accused by a Padres blog of “refusing to admit” he was better, which is always hilarious to me.

Dan: Do you believe Derek Rodriguez is a legit mid-rotation starter or more back-end? Either way I’m happy to have found a useful pitcher for essentially nothing.
Keith Law: Back-end. Very lucky on the ERA front.

Dale: Why were the A’s experimenting with Matt Olson in RF? And was that part of reason you weren’t sold on his 1B defense.
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s that good a defender at first, period. Gold Gloves are stupid.

Steve: ETA on when the O’s hire a new GM?
Keith Law: Sometime before the All-Star Break.

John: Re pizza, why do you need a better oven? What’s the ideal temp?
Keith Law: For Neapolitan-style pizza, probably 800+.

Pat: Apparently Carter Kieboom showed good range and arm at SS in the AFL. Any chance he can stay on the position?
Keith Law: I saw him there, and no, he did not. Second base for me.

mike : I find the time between pitches to be the issue for me, more than the commercial breaks. The NFL can make it look like there is action, thru replay. MLB replay is shorter, so it is harder to fake action.
Keith Law: There’s a fatigue recovery benefit to pitchers taking more seconds between pitches, which is why I oppose a pitch clock and prefer cutting those ad breaks.

Hank: Ian Anderson is the pitcher Alex Anthopoulos should be least willing to trade. True or false?
Keith Law: Neither true nor false. You can make that case for Anderson, or for Touki, or even for Wilson.

Tom: Was Patrick Mahomes ever considered a prospect?
Keith Law: Sort of. I know he did some baseball stuff but it was so clear he was headed for football that I don’t think he was seriously scouted his senior year. It sounds like he made the right choice.

Jiimbo: What are your thoughts on Yusei Kikuchi? At best #2 Starter?
Keith Law: I ranked him in the free agent rankings.

section 34: Since you write so often on vaccines — I’m with you, I’m very pro-vaccine — I wonder if you have a theory on why very liberal people who claim to care about community don’t respect the concept of herd immunity.
Keith Law: Chemophobia/appeal to nature fallacy plus Dunning-Kruger syndrome (the more education you have, the more liberal you are likely to be, but then you might overestimate your knowledge in other subject areas).

Amir: Would Matt Harvey be a good fit on the Athletics on like a 1 year pillow deal? Feel like it could be a good situation for both the player and team.
Keith Law: Yep, love that idea, actually. Good call.

Santos: To Jeff the Vaccine Troll: Took me 2 seconds to google, “It didn’t immediately announce the decision as it found that the level of arsenic concentration is minimal without the potential to cause harm.

The ministry’s research showed that arsenic was from the heated glass bottle that contained the BCG vaccine.”
Keith Law: Jeff the vaccine troll is indeed just a troll. I usually ignore him, but that bullshit was worth swatting down.

Seth: Did you see Melvin Adon in the AFL? Is he more than a guy who just throws really hard?
Keith Law: I didn’t see him, talked to two guys who did (plus Longenhagen), sounds like a guy who throws really hard and we’re not sure what else.

Josh: what does Evan White look like at the MLB level? I’m worried he’s a AAA/MLB swing man
Keith Law: The 1b? Everyday player.

Dansbae: Have you given up Dansby Swanson? Looks like he isn’t a regular.
Keith Law: I have not. Still think he’ll be a regular.

HugoZ: Do you think that Casey Mize feels “screwed” after receiving 7.5 million?
Keith Law: If he would have received $10 million as a free agent – which is likely – then yes, he should feel screwed. I don’t know him at all so I am not sure of his actual feelings. I for one would be very frustrated if I were only allowed to negotiate with ESPN when my contract is up even though there might be other companies willing to bid on my services.

JR: Thoughts on how the mid-term elections turned out? I’m happy to see Dems take back the house, but the Rs gain ground in the Senate. Anything we can read into this on the chances of 45 getting voted out in 2020??
Keith Law: The Senate seats up for election this year were not representative of the body (or country) as a whole – there were few chances for the Democrats to flip them and retake the chamber. That said, I don’t think projections two years out are ever very useful in politics. Stuff changes fast.

Mitten: I’d prefer the Cubs just DFA/non-tender Russell. Just seems like the right thing to do/message to send. Giving lip service to wanting to ‘help him’, which is great. But to me, he doesn’t need to be part of the organization for that to happen.
Keith Law: I would too, but they traded for Chapman, so I doubt they just walk away from whatever value might remain in Russell.

Mike: Are you going to post your Thanksgiving menu this year? I have to contribute a dish myself and was hoping to “borrow” one of your dishes.
Keith Law: I only posted that on Thanksgiving day in the past; not sure if I do that this year since I’m not cooking for a crowd.

Ryan: If you were running the Cards would you use Reyes as a 2-3 inning reliever with multiple days off in between appearances
Keith Law: Yes, assuming he can handle that. Starting him seems well off in the future now.

Barry: How about the Angels as a landing spot for Harper? It would show Trout they are committed long term to winning and Harper could slide into the occasional DH role to better keep him fresh over the course of the contract.
Keith Law: Sure, if they’re willing to jettison Pujols.

Jeffrey: Beto runs in 2020 at this point.
Keith Law: He’ll probably run. Booker might run. Warren, Harris, and probably some others we don’t really know very well yet. And then we’ll find out some stuff about each of them that isn’t very flattering and people will freak out over details that don’t matter and gloss over negative things that should matter and I’m already losing my patience with this.

Jon: FYI: Bill James is correct. If you took every Mike Trout or Mookie off the field right now they will be replaced with other players and the game goes on; period.
Keith Law: FYI: No, he’s not, and it wouldn’t. Just look back at the replacement NFL players from ’87.

Wes: If Brendan McKay switches to pitching only, does he reach the majors sometime in 2019? Still have number 2 ceiling?
Keith Law: Yes, and yes.

JR: Thoughts on Cashman being so direct in that he needs to trade Gray? Obviously, it’s the best move for both sides, but does being so public about it decrease his value?
Keith Law: I appreciate his candor. We all know it’s true. Denying it just forces him to lie to everyone.

Bryan (Montclair, NJ): Shocker – Mets are not going after Harper or Machado. With that said, can you envision a more moderately priced road that BVM can take to get this team to contention in 2019?
Keith Law: Yes, but it would require 1) steps forward from a few young players and 2) going all-in on short-term fixes that cost the team in the long term.

Aaron: There is clearly a discrepancy in the way you and some other outlets value the jays farm system. I tend to side with your ranking of the system mainly because outside Vlad, bo and Pearson there is just not a lot of upside. There are a lot of guys who seem to project as average to below average regulars. Is that essentially your take on their prospect pool?
Keith Law: That is almost precisely how I see their system. Guys like Biggio, Smith, Reid-Foley, Alford, Tellez – the team may rate them highly but I’m offering you a more balanced view that reflects what I’ve seen and what other teams think.

Sam: So an administration that derides “Fake News” just used a doctored video from InfoWars as justification to revoke a reporters WH access. Cool.
Keith Law: Yep. America in 2018.

xxx(yyy): what is your favorite 80 grade cooking item/tool in your kitchen these days? What about an 80 grade technique you use?
Keith Law: My Japanese santoku. Technique? Not sure. I cook lots of ways all the time.

Jennyfer: Any hope that the Dems get better at messaging? Trump is the fucking worst and so is most of the GOP, but they somehow get the “liberal” media to talk about e-mails and a caravan instead of all of the Trump corruption and access to health care.
Keith Law: The Democrats as a party have been poorly run for a decade or more. Losing in 2004 was kind of the first sign and yet the leadership continues to offer more of the same.

Bryan (Montclair, NJ): Keith, I really appreciate you sharing so much about your issues with anxiety. I struggle lately with focusing on specific tasks for long periods of time. I contribute a lot of it to taking on more responsibility (professionally and family wise). Is there anything that you’ve done to increase your ability to focus?
Keith Law: If you read about the flow state, you may find some of those techniques helpful. I recently reviewed a book called Deep Work that also offers good, functional tips.

Dazed and Confused: Bloomberg may not be good, but how can you get worse than Donald?
Keith Law: I hate that idea. We shouldn’t just settle for “not Trump.” There are real, major problems facing our country and our planet – climate change, overpopulation, sectarian violence, terrorism, pandemic risks. health care, etc. It’d be nice to find a leader with real ideas and the capability to execute them.

Andy: Travis Lee and Matt White were free agents due to a loophole in 1996. They BOTH received over $10 million.
Keith Law: Yep. And I think MLB revenues have gone up a tad since then.

Jared: Is Brandon Woodruff a starter for you? If so, does he project as middle of rotation or back end?
Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter.

Chris: Has Julio Urias already exceeded your expectations in his comeback, even if long term his outlook is greatly reduced?
Keith Law: No. I had no expectations for him on the field.

Jared: Would a Schoop for Sonny Gray swap make sense? Both have been good in past, but struggled last year. Change of scenery for both?
Keith Law: I like that idea.

section 34: Klaw, we were agreeing so nicely until you disparaged Matt Olson’s defense. His B-R range factor was easily the best in the AL at 1B, well ahead of the second-best semi-regular 1B (Ronald Guzman). B-R had him worth 0.8 dWAR. So far as I can tell he was the ONLY AL 1B with positive dWAR in 2018. And, not that it counts, but he looks smooth doing it. Will you re-evaluate your evaluation?
Keith Law: I don’t find defensive metrics useful for evaluating 1b defense and never have. So, no, I won’t.

Felix: Joe Biden is currently the frontrunner to be the Dem nominee in 2020. A safe choice, but just another tired old white guy who will likely be nominated because the rest of the current interested Dems is a minefield.
Keith Law: And how often is the front-runner 24 months out the actual candidate? I’d guess less than half the time. Can I bet somewhere on it not being Biden?

Drew: I’ve battled anxiety my entire life but I don’t think I ever really realized it until I turned 40. Makes me feel a little dumb when you step back and understand how this giant elephant in your brain could sit there an got unnoticed for most of my life. What was your first step in getting treatment? As in, do you just google “anxiety doctor” or did you find a specific type of clinic? I got some Xanax but kind of hate it as a treatment. I get anxious at work more than anywhere else, I can’t be bogged down with drugs. Thanks.
Keith Law: Started with my primary care doctor and then got in to see a therapist shortly afterwards.

Chris: I know you have an interest in languages. Have you ever used Duolingo? Any other tool? Thoughts?
Keith Law: I have used it. It’s fun, but I don’t think it really teaches the language, just some vocabulary.

Jerald: Overpopulation has always been a problem that I think is glossed over too much. How can we deal with it. Is it as simple as providing wide spread birth control in the 3rd world in an attempt to slow things down in those areas until infrastructure can be developed to support their current populations?
Keith Law: Increasing access to birth control would help – but so does empowering women around the world. Women who have the opportunity to work and earn income also end up with greater reproductive choice, and thus have fewer kids. Regardless, however, we have to find a way to feed 8-9 billion people, and provide them with clean water, and stop warming the planet. It’s not small, but with one party denying climate change even exists, we’re not close to working on a solution.

Mick: Any Japanese stars coming to MLB in the near future that approach Ohtani’s talent?
Keith Law: Not that I’m aware of. MLB regulars, yes, potential stars I don’t think so.

Josh: Seems like so many teams are tanking/rebuilding next year in the AL. Could we have 4 teams 100+ wins in the AL alone?
Keith Law: I hope not. Some other team – the White Sox are really in prime position – has to see the opportunity to make a big move and pounce. They could be a 90-win team this year with realistic improvement from young players already there and the right acquisitions from outside.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you as always for all of your questions. Next week’s chat will likely be Friday rather than Thursday due to travel but I will make an announcement if it’s sooner. Enjoy your weekends and thanks to everyone who voted for science and reason this past Tuesday.

Keith Law: Every time just like the last. Klawchat.

Dean: Mr. President, everyone in this room is now dumber from having listened to you. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
Keith Law: Just going to suggest that one way to stop a President who thinks he can change the Constitution on a whim is to vote for the opposition party on Tuesday.

DaveAlden53: How is Jahmai Jones doing at second base? Is his bat a better fit for that position?
Keith Law: He was fine there when I saw him in the AFL but never sufficiently challenged. The bat would obviously play better there than in LF/RF, since he wasn’t going to play center in that organization.

DaveAlden53: The Brewers added Tyrone Taylor to their 40-man roster. Can he play a role with the big club in 2019?
Keith Law: Extra outfielder? He really hasn’t performed – a .321 OBP in Colorado Springs as a 24-year-old is not going to cut it.

Tom: Let’s say it was physically and financially possible to change all ballparks so that they played identically to each other. Would you be in favor of doing this?
Keith Law: No, I love the fact that we have unique playing fields & dimensions – it sets us apart from other sports.

JT: You’ve long been an advocate of going to an experienced manager while still being a fresh face with new ideas: are you happy with the Blue Jays’ selection of Montoya?
Keith Law: Absolutely – heard nothing but great things from his colleagues in Tampa Bay and he has a great resume.

Hal: What candy are you handing out for Halloween?
Keith Law: Nothing special – we just get some generic mixed stuff from Target, definitely Reese’s cups in there, because I will eat the leftovers. I didn’t dress up this year for the first time in a while because my daughter is just generally less into the holiday this year.

Andy: Serious question, if the Mets decide to trade DeGrom or Syndergaard to jumpstart a rebuild, would the new GM sign off on it?
Hal: Kimbrel looked vulnerable at times during the playoffs and during the season his Ks were down and BB way up. If you were Boston would you let him walk? What would you offer him?
Keith Law: I would let Kimbrel walk, yes.
Keith Law: Mets GM: who knows – anything involving those guys feels like a conflict of interest. If you’re another GM and BVW calls to offer to trade you one of those guys, don’t you wonder if he has information on them that you don’t have that might discourage you from accepting any offer?

Wally: Initial thoughts on the Trevor Rosenthal signing ?
Keith Law: I can’t offer thoughts on a deal without any contract terms.

Andy: What is pache’s future value in your eyes?
Keith Law: He’s at least 10+ runs a year in centerfielder, maybe 15-20, with plus raw power and, at the moment, a low OBP. That still makes him an above-average regular, but the ceiling is limited by the lack of patience at the plate, and he did seem occasionally overmatched at the plate in the AFL.

Ozzie’s helmet: Is there a way to prevent that Ozzie Albies becomes Rougned Odor?
Keith Law: Sure, but he has to be a part of that process too.

Jordan: Do you think the Mets have the pieces to go after JT Realmuto this winter? And if they do, what would they have to offer for the Marlins to seriously consider accepting the deal?
Keith Law: I think other teams would be able to top the Mets’ best offer – but I also think it would be a terrible idea for the Mets to trade prospects for Realmuto.

Joules: How reluctant do you think the Marlins would be to move JTR within the division?
Keith Law: The correct answer would be “zero.” That mentality is stupid, and outdated, and hurts no one but your own team.

Brian: There has been a lot of glowing post-season wrap up stuff on Spencer Howard. What have you heard about him?
Keith Law: I’ve seen him. Lot of average stuff. Was way too old/experienced for low-A this year.

HOTLANTA: Do you think an offer of Pache, Gohara, and Allard would be enough to land Realmuto?
Keith Law: Probably, if Anthopoulos has lost his damn mind.

Jordan: Obviously we need to see results before seriously judging, but what are your thoughts on the Mets hiring Van Wagenen as their new GM?
Keith Law: I said this yesterday on the BBTN podcast: I know BVW a little, but not enough to know what kind of GM he will be, but I will say that the Mets’ process here has been a farce. The owner’s son hired his buddy, and it’s a guy with zero experience anywhere in a front office – never scouted, never worked in player development, never worked in analytics, never worked as an AGM under in that area working on contracts. I literally have more relevant experience than BVW does, and I do not believe I am qualified to jump in and be a GM. Yet they chose him over one of the best and most qualified GM candidates in the game, Chaim Bloom; and they covered their bases by interviewing two persons of color, one a woman, and then booting them both after the first round. Sometimes a flawed process produces a good result, but that doesn’t absolve the owners here for the flaws.

Fish: Is the Orioles’ hiring of a President/GM going to be a circus again, or is there any indication that there’s been a positive change there?
Keith Law: Nobody knows what’s going on. I generally don’t chase those rumors anyway, but I’m surprised I’ve heard basically nothing on Baltimore.

Zihuatanejo: From a talent/development standpoint, are either of Smith or Ruiz ready to suit up for the Dodgers in 2018?
Keith Law: Smith probably is. Ruiz is not.

Adam Trask: Your brand is built in part on letting people into to your personal life and political views. Why would you react negatively when a follower asks what you’re doing in the offseason or about your eating habits?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t. I think you totally missed the joke.

David: Since the Padres forced him out of position by signing Hosmer, trading Myers seems logical—but how much of his contract would they have to eat to do so (and get something useful back in return)?
Keith Law: He’s not a $20 million/year player, which is what he’s getting paid in 2020-22; he might be worth 60% of that, even if he’s returned to first base (he’s a better fielder there, but the positional value is also lower). So that’s my very rough, outside guess – they’d probably have to offer to pay 1/3 to 2/5 of it.

TP: Favorite MLB and MiLB cities for food?
Keith Law: Woof, that’s a long list for MLB. For the minors, though, Nashville is the obvious standout. Louisville is also pretty close; Raleigh-Durham, if we count that as one destination, is up there. I haven’t spent enough time in Austin but its reputation would put it in the same class.

Nick: Do you really see the Yankees staying out of the Harper/Machado sweepstakes?
Keith Law: No.

Mike: Have you seen Nate Pearson since he returned? Any thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Yes, please see my second AFL post for a full report.

Jeff D.: Should the Dodgers be VERY worried about the investigation into their Cuban signees and the laws that may have been broken? MLB penalties, actual DOJ penalties or arrests?
Keith Law: Better question for a lawyer. I’m not qualified to answer and haven’t even asked anyone in the game about the story (why would they tell me anything?).

CJC: Why wouldn’t the Yankees just play Gleyber at short next year while Didi rehabs? Who would you have play 2nd?
Keith Law: That is exactly what I would do. Gleyber can play short. You can find a second baseman to fill in for a bit. Maybe it’s Tyler Wade.

Stephen: What would a fair extension look like for the Dodgers and Kershaw, given what he means to the franchise, their place on the marginal win curve, and his declining velocity? Add two years and 70mm to current deal? Or is that just too high even for them?
Keith Law: Oh god no – that’s WAY too much. He’s not a $30 million a year guy any more.

Mike: It seems like teams are getting better and better at scouting amateur players. Is it still necessary to have as many levels in the minor leagues as we currently do?
Keith Law: I don’t see the connection there – we need the lower levels for the raw high school kids and Latin American free agents who sign as teenagers.

Ian: Any thoughts on what the Rockies should do in 2019? Go all in, trade Arenado, or muddle through with strange choices and over the hill vets (clearly the likely outcome)
Keith Law: They can compete again for sure, but would need to make some hard internal decisions (like accepting that playing Desmond hurts the club, or that paying for relievers isn’t working). I think they’re a potential playoff team as currently constructed, helped by Arizona likely taking a step back and the Giants almost certainly starting to rebuild.

Pat: Carter Kieboom ready to be opening day roster for Nats?
Keith Law: No.

Jesse B: If you had to guess, educated of course, which of these three will have the best pro career, Lucius Fox, Jazz Chisholm, and Andres Gimenez?
Keith Law: Ranked best to worst: Chisholm, Fox, Gimenez.

Bort: Thoughts on Mejia for next season? Does he get 400 at bats?
Keith Law: He should play a full season – there is no good reason why he wouldn’t.

Mac: Do you think Spencer Adams has a legit shot to earn a spot in the White Sox rotation out of spring training?
Keith Law: No, nor should he. He has marginal stuff and struck out only 11% of batters he faced in AAA.

Nate: Does Hudson have a shot at making the Cardinals rotation, or is he destined to be a career reliever?
Keith Law: I think reliever is most likely the outcome for him, but they could certainly try him again as a starter.

Kyle: After AFL is over, do you pay any attention to the other winter leagues (Mexico, ABL, etc)? Is there a MiLB level that those leagues are equivalent to?
Keith Law: There isn’t, not for AFL either, because the range of player calibers top to bottom is much wider in those offseason leagues than it is in a typical minor league. I don’t really pay attention to the winter leagues after the AFL but will occasionally get scouting reports on players who looked substantially different there.

Logan: Will Kolby Allard improve enough from a command and secondaries standpoint to actually be a 4th/5th starter on a solid team?
Keith Law: He is a 5th starter for me now. He’d need more velocity or life on the fastball to be much more than that.

Nate: Know it’s early, but what kind of upside does Jenista possess?
Keith Law: I don’t see what position he can play for an NL team. He might be an everyday DH, but that’s not an option with Atlanta.

Gabe: You don’t think Kimbrel will get the QO? Seems to make sense to keep the team together one more year while they still have Sale and before J.D. can opt out.
Keith Law: They might offer it, but I wouldn’t. The trend lines on him are largely pointing down and the history of one-inning relievers is that their peaks are short and end abruptly.

Chester: Are Happ, Contreras, Schwarber all flops?
Keith Law: No. You could wait a minute.

Radiohix: Did you get a look at Darwinson Hernandez? what do we got here?
Keith Law: He’s also in the AFL post to which I linked earlier.

Rich: Starting to play light strategy board games with my young son. Did your daughter’s logic, critical thinking, or general math ability improve by playing those types of games?
Keith Law: Who knows? She enjoyed them, I enjoyed playing with her, and it didn’t involve staring at a screen. That’s a win for me.

Mac: What’s your take on the launch angle revolution? Do you think it’s here to stay or do you think baseball will revert back to: little guys put the ball in play and big guys swing for the fences?
Keith Law: It’s here to stay at least in part, but haven’t we always known that guys with flatter swings produced less power, and guys who swing too far uphill tended to swing and miss too much and also fail to produce the power they might physically possess? Now we just have the data to fine-tune it. The one thing I think might change is that we might see teams like the Dodgers become more discriminating in whose swings they alter – that there are just some players who become worse off by trying to optimize their launch angles for power because they become sufficiently worse hitters for contact.

Larry: Is Peter Alonso’s defense now passable like Ricciardi says?
Keith Law: It was bad in the AFL. His hands are fine, but he’s pretty big and not agile. His bat would play well at DH, but again, not an option.

Junior: Are you impressed with what Billy Eppler has done with the organization?
Keith Law: Yes, overall I think he’s done a great job to date, especially with the mandate to try to win now.

Ben: Why would the Mets hire a GM with no front-office experience?
Keith Law: Because Jeff liked him.

Joe: Interesting that each side thinks that it’s ok to change the constitution for one thing but not for the other when it comes to gun control/immigration. The argument on each side is even the same – that it was not the framers intent when they originally passed the law. I would prefer they follow the constitution in both ways. Both sides are arguing out of both sides of their mouth.
Keith Law: Well, I guess talking out of both sides of your mouth is better than talking out of your ass, Joe.

Eric: who do you think has a better career, Touki Toussaint or Shane Bieber and why?
Keith Law: Give me Touki. Better stuff, better athlete, still a year younger too.

Drake: How much of an improvement do you think we see in Devers next year?
Keith Law: I believe he will end up a star. That might be 2019, it might be 2020, but I firmly believe it’s coming.

Tony: Is Yu Chang anything other than a spare infielder? Or, put differently, in an organization other than Cleveland could he be a starter?
Keith Law: Maybe a starter in some orgs. I think he’s kind of a fringe regular.

Clayton: Kershaw’s less than stellar performance in the post season is mostly just SSS noise, right?
Keith Law: That is just noise, and better competition. What is not noise is a full year of pitching at 90-91 with less power to the slider too.

Justin: Did you get a look at Andy Young (STL) when you were at the AZ Fall League? Does he have a future as a big league UTIL guy?
Keith Law: I did and yes, if not a little more.

Chris Verdugo : Do you think the era of Donald Trump is going to motivate future Americans to become more aware and concerned about politics in general, and if so do you think the Republicans are just waiting for their demise as voters become younger and younger and side with more progressive policies?
Keith Law: I think it has alerted more people, probably on both sides if not in equal numbers, to the importance of getting involved and voting.

Patrick: Thanks again for the chats, Keith!
Do you ever read/review your daughter’s reading choices? As my son gets older, I struggle with how much to direct (approve?) his choices.
Keith Law: Yes, I do, but she also has yet to ask to read something I wouldn’t approve.

Tom: Have you read Salt Fat Acid Heat or seen the Netflix show? If so, what do you think of them?
Keith Law: I own the book but haven’t read it yet.

Patrick: Keith, your thoughts on Fox WS announcers? Would viewers be better served by PBP person that regularly works games?
Keith Law: I muted them the whole way through.

Andrew: In 2010 my friends and I went to Pitt for a Mets/pirates series. One game was rained out early and we walked around downtown Pitt. A woman saw us in Mets gear and struck up a conversation. She was from LI too and invited us to Squirrel Hill pray at a synagogue. We said we weren’t Jewish and she said it didn’t matter we were welcome anyway. I’ve always remembered the exchange and how kind and welcoming the woman was. I am really at a loss as to what happened this weekend
Keith Law: I am too. I am not Jewish, but lived very near that synagogue and interacted very often with members of the Jewish community in Squirrel Hill for two years, and never felt anything less than welcome even though I was an interloper twice over (I was a grad student, and obviously not a permanent Pittsburgh resident). The normalization of white nationalism the last three years has encouraged domestic terrorists.

Rich: I don’t know whether Kim Ng would be a good GM or not. I hope she gets a GM job sometime soon and thrives. Do you think teams interview her as a token candidate with no intention of hiring her? Seems like she has interviewed countless times and never gotten serious consideration.
Keith Law: I believe she has been used repeatedly to satisfy MLB’s unwritten Rooney rule.

Hyce Brarper: A Marlins beat writer claimed the price for JT hasn’t gone down, would still insist on Acuña. He has to be kidding, right?
Keith Law: He may not have been kidding but that ain’t happening.
Keith Law: Also, the price for any player goes down as he approaches free agency. Take an econ class, dude.

Jake: Have you seen Brusdar Graterol in person? Ace potential?
Keith Law: I have not. I’ve talked to multiple scouts about him, and the consensus was more high-end closer potential than starter potential, at least right now.

Jake: Kohl Stewart hasn’t seemed to live up to his potential so far, but his ground ball rate kept him around the majors… Do you think he ever develops further into a quality starter?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, unfortunately. I was way too high on him as an amateur/young prospect. His stuff regressed.

Patrick: If Burnes and Woodruff make Brewers rotation, do you see Counsell/Stearns letting them throw deeper into games than this year’s crop of starters? I guess I’m asking, “bullpenning” conditional on starters, or do you think an ongoing team philosophy?
Keith Law: I believe their bullpenning plan, like Tampa’s, revolved around the actual personnel on the pitching staff.

Bailey: How come you don’t care about all the food that is wasted on Top Chef?
Keith Law: Begging the question. And this has come up before: the food is not wasted.

CJC: Thoughts on Corbin at $20mm per year?
Keith Law: Sign me up for that.

Lilith: Really random question, but could you ever see a team installing a differently colored field like Boise State does in college football? Would it be breaking any rules? … I mean, Loria had to have thought of it, right?
Keith Law: I actually don’t know if there’s a rule against it, but I bet MLB would step in very quickly to quash it.

ScottyD in Downingtown: Is June 2020 a reasonable ETA for Brendan McKay to arrive in Tampa?
Keith Law: He’s ready to pitch in the majors now. That’s a long time to hold him down.

Nate: Any chance the Yankees non-tender Didi?
Keith Law: I would say no chance.

Andy: Have you ever gotten into symphonic metal, like Nightwish? It’s much less guitar driven than black metal, but better vocals, while still being instrumentally interesting.
Keith Law: Not them specifically but I pretty much like any kind of progressive or experimental metal if it’s focused on musicianship rather than speed or merely being ‘heavy.’

Kevin : Season’s over. Lets talk HoF. I know he is no longer eligible, but if he was would you vote Dwight Evans into Cooperstown?
Keith Law: Yes, I would.

Aaron G: In response to Joe re: gun laws. It says “well regulated militia” right in the text. Literal interpretation: go join a militia (currently similar to the National Guard) if you want to own a damned weapon of war.
Keith Law: Also, I haven’t heard anyone who matters suggesting that, say, the President could unilaterally revoke the Second Amendment. I’d like to see fairly strict laws on who can own guns, but I would stand between any President and an attempt to rewrite part the Constitution without going through the actual process for amending it.

Garrett: AA has already tried to pump the brakes on expectations that the Braves are going to spend big, but I look at that as just talk. But given how their farm system is balanced at the moment, aren’t they the ideal team to go for Harper? Teams are never 1 player away, but this signing would be as close too that scenario as I could imagine.
Keith Law: Do you think Liberty would authorize him to spend big like that? I rather doubt that myself. I think he’ll be allowed to make big moves, but I can’t imagine he gets to spend like that on one player.

Ira: What is your solution for illegal immigration and how to deal with current illegal residents?
Keith Law: “Solution” implies a problem. Immigration is a net positive for economies; we want immigrants to come here to contribute to our economy as workers and consumers, and should create paths for them to do so in ways that encourage them to come and work as soon as they arrive. The idea that immigration is itself a problem is both deeply ignorant of the history of our country, including our economic and cultural dependence on immigrants, and a longstanding method of creating a common enemy to use fear to drive the shrinking white majority in the country to the polls. The Hidden Brain has recently had two excellent podcasts on this topic within the last three weeks.

Brent : Did you get a chance to see CWS’s Burdi in the AFL? Any insight to how he’s look after TJ? Thanks.
Keith Law: I did not but Eric Longenhagen did and said he looked like he did pre-TJ (which is good).

Jennyfer: Nobody serious on the left is calling for the 2nd amendment to be thrown out. We’re calling for common sense restrictions. The nut in Pittsburgh was a “good guy with a gun” until he wasn’t because he did everything legally.
Keith Law: That’s been under-reported, too – the weapons he used were all purchased legally.

donn: thoughts on smoltz in the booth? Looks like we have a huge issue in sports these days with older commentators complaining nonstop about the way basketball/baseball are these days and how the game isn’t the same as it was 20/30/40 years ago. Smoltz, wilbon, and many others spend all their time complaining rather then adjusting and embracing. It becomes very annoying to listen to. Is there a solution?
Keith Law: The solution is to put different people in the booth – and you know what? sometimes that means a booth with no former MLB players in it. It can be a bonus, but it shouldn’t be a requirement.

Jay: Will Durbin Feltman be in the majors for most of ’19?
Keith Law: I think that has to be the plan; you don’t draft a college reliever that high unless you think he’s close to MLB ready.

Zihuatanejo: I’m sure you’ve already answered this question this season, but — what kind of prospect (if any) was Max Muncy prior to this year? Was this kind of breakout foreseeable at all?
Keith Law: No, it wasn’t. He didn’t have game power because his swing didn’t create it. Unless you knew he’d changed his swing and that it would be this effective, I don’t see how you could have distinguished him from a few dozen other low-power corner bats like him.

Adam: Is Tatis one of those players that will be called up 2 weeks after the season starts or due to his recent injury do you see him debuting later in the season, say September call up range?
Keith Law: I’m guessing he comes up more in June or so. He did miss a lot of at bats.

JT: Will any of Dalton Pompey, Devon Travis, or Anthony Alford ever establish themselves as a solid regular?
Keith Law: At this point I would say Alford might, the others probably won’t. Alford hasn’t lived up to my expectations for him but I hold out some hope because he is so inexperienced for his age.

RSO: Did you happen to see Brodie Van Wagenen’s interview with Mike Francesa? It was cringe worthy.
Keith Law: I only saw the Metsmerized summary. I was glad to see him say that the Mets have drafted well, which they have, although I don’t know if he mentioned that those three college arms he liked were all CAA clients (all good picks anyway … CAA reps a lot of very good prospects in every draft).
Keith Law: Again, my criticisms are not directed at BVW. He’s a bit of a blank to all of us on the outside. It’s the process that leads to his hiring over obviously qualified candidates from within the industry that I am criticizing.

Mike: The Yankees probably don’t bring back Robertson or britton. Who do you see them targeting for bullpen help?
Keith Law: Why not bring one or both back?

J: This somewhat anticipates top 100 and team rankings, but I’m wondering where you stand on Corey Ray and Lucas Erceg now, and if either has any 2019 MLB legs.
Keith Law: As much as I like Corey Ray, I have a hard time believing the 2018 power spike is meaningful when 1) scouts kept telling me he was selling out for that power and 2) he still punched out 30% of the time. There is still some hope for him and Erceg (who also had back trouble in March and then got hit in the helmet by a pitch in April), but neither has developed anywhere near as I expected. I think this has generally been an issue with Milwaukee – their best hitting prospects have stalled or regressed. Trent Grisham looked like a non-prospect to me in the AFL.

Beau: Do you think Austin Allen can be a starting MLB catcher?
Keith Law: I do not. Solid backup.

Craig: If the A’s sign Lowrie, as Rosenthal said they want to, what could Barreto fetch in a trade?
Keith Law: Barreto’s value is at an all-time low, I think.

Jacob Wohl: I’m in trouble am I not?
Keith Law: It sure looks that way. Given the hate and misinformation you’ve spewed, I’m okay with that.

Frank: Any chance the Cubs try to trade for Whit Merrifield and play Baez at SS fule time?
Keith Law: If I’m a Cubs fan that is the last thing I want them to do (the trade part – I’m good with putting Baez at SS full time). Pick up Hamels’ option, re-sign Chavez, and go hard for Machado or Harper.

Mike: I’m 40 yrs old, and thinking of learning guitar. Is it a long road to learn ?
Keith Law: I started when I was a little kid, then picked it up more seriously when I was 13. Not sure what would be involved to learn it now – but you should do it anyway. It’s fun, and it’s very good for your brain to learn a new skill like that.
Keith Law: Also, chicks dig it.

Eric: Just wanted to say thanks for you not “sticking to baseball”.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I don’t plan to stick to baseball now or ever again.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat but I do have a few notes before I skip out. My ranking of the top 50 free agents this winter will go up Friday, but I’ll be on a brief vacation to help my parents celebrate their 50th wedding anniversary, so I will be scarce on social media through Sunday. (That also likely means the stick to baseball post will be postponed.) The next chat will be Thursday, and I’ll probably do another Periscope chat next week too. Also, one addition to a question I was asked last week in chat and yesterday on the Periscope: Another movie I’m really looking forward to is The Favourite. I saw the trailer yesterday before A Star Is Born and I am all in.
Keith Law: Thanks as always for showing up and asking so many questions. Have a safe and fun Halloween!