My first mock draft of 2024 is now up for subscribers to The Athletic.

Keith Law: So you say I got a funny face. Klawchat.

Mike R: I loved the “Thick as a Brick” reference at the top of the last chat.
Keith Law: I was a big Jethro Tull fan when I was in college, then kind of lost interest for a while. They used “Teacher” in Baby Reindeer (deserves an Emmy for best use of a song in a limited series) and it got me back into them in the last few weeks.

J: Cleveland clearly likes-and is good at-acquiring and developing hit tool driven 2B. Assuming they have Condon and Bazzana graded equally do you think they should double down on that profile or take the player who’s profile would be unique in the org
Keith Law: They should take whoever they think is the best player. Period. You don’t pick first very often and you don’t want to screw it up like the Phils did in 2016.

James: With respect to James Wood, outside of the improved numbers, have you seen or gotten reports that he’s actually taken a step forward in some of the areas of concern that you had for him coming into this season?
Keith Law: His slider recognition seems to be way, way improved from last year. I’m a little skeptical of any player’s improved plate discipline with the ABS in play in AAA, but he seems to have made a real change.

Rick: I know this is about 2024, but as an Astros fan with a likely high pick, how strong is the 2025 draft?
Keith Law: I have no idea. I avoid worrying about next year’s draft until the current one is over, especially since such early impressions are often way off.

Neal: I’m a White Sox fan trying to warm up to the idea of taking a hitter without positional value (to be fair-our guys don’t really hit at the less valuable positions either). I saw Jac as 3 doubles this year. Is this a no wheels kind of slugger? I know he’s hit a lot of home runs, but Condon has 18 doubles by comparison. Thanks!
Keith Law: It’s a very all-or-nothing approach for Cags and I think that’s why some teams are just not on him in the top ten. He swings a lot, he chases a lot, and he’s trying to pull everything. That’s how you end up with all singles and homers but very very few 2b/3b – and you’re correct to worry about what it means going forward.

Punk in Drublic: any updates to the profiles of Owen Cassie, Thayron Liranzo, or Cam Collier based on their 2024 season?
Keith Law: I think all 3 have been pretty much as expected so far, other than Liranzo hitting a little worse on BIP. Was hoping Caissie would cut down on the K’s with the benefit of ABS in AAA.

Drew: It’s not Memorial Day and there are already two public videos of the Nationals coaching staff and CJ Abrams disagreeing about his approach at the plate. 1) how much should an MLB team be telling a player how to swing (feels very Stanford’y) and 2) how concerning should it be that there is such a visible disagreement between the staff and best player?
Keith Law: I hate that stuff becoming public regardless of the player and org – that belongs behind closed doors, IMO. It doesn’t reflect well on the coaching staff, including the manager. That said, it is absolutely the coaching staff’s job to work with players on their swings and their approaches.

Punk in Drublic: It feels like based on his stat line Jonah Tong has shown some marked improvement this season (specifically with his reduction of walks).  Have you heard anything about him imparting a significant way or is it more SSS?
Keith Law: Yep, he’s legit. Would probably be a top 100 guy at this point. Fastball is easily plus in every way.

Dan: With Mitchell Parker and Jake Irving doing well (111 and 128 ERA+, respectively), Andry Lara blowing up seemingly out of nowhere–are the Nationals actually developing pitchers?
Keith Law: No – Parker’s start to his career looks like a raging fluke. He’s giving up more hard contact than the opponents’ avg would imply and is lucky he hasn’t allowed more homers. Both he and Irvin have large platoon splits already, and I would expect that to get exposed as teams stack lineups with LHB.

Sam: How much success does a prospect need to have with unconventional mechanics/skill set before it stops being a concern?
Keith Law: Kind of depends on the mechanics/skill in question. For pitchers with weird deliveries – and this year’s draft has a LOT – I think you focus more on the stuff, and how it plays, and make small adjustments based on your concerns about the delivery, rather than just saying “NOPE” to a guy like Yesavage, who I don’t think has ever had an arm issue and who is dominating with the FB/split. I think it’s more fair to be skeptical of, say, a hitter with a really unusual swing (Chase Delauter comes to mind, although the poor guy is hurt again), because that seems to be way more of an impediment in the majors than an unusual delivery.
Keith Law: Sorry for the non-answer.

Paul in SF: Thanks for all the hard work!  This draft doesn’t have the top 5 of last year, so comparatively, how many “TOP 25” guys do you see overall?  I would assume Condon and Bazzana, but anyone else?  Just curious as to the difference at top.
Keith Law: That’s probably it. And I’m not totally sure that either of those guys cracks last year’s top 5.

M: Christopher Morel’s plate discipline has really improved – walk rate way up, K rate real down, some bad BABIP luck this year. OTOH his defense has been horrendous and he is on pace for 1 WAR again. Is this a player worth investing in?
Keith Law: I think he’s a DH. I did notice the plate discipline stuff you mentioned … he’s also hitting the ball on the ground a decent amount more often than last year, and I wonder if that’s all connected, that he’s trading some whiff for some less favorable contact. If Shaw, who’s also had some awful BABIP luck, performs well enough to get to the majors this summer, he should get the 3B job.

Matt: I noticed Skenes pitched 4 innings but had like 20 pitches that were over 100 mph. Wouldn’t it be better if he threw 96 but was able to go 6 or 7 innings? Or is there not a big difference in 4-5 mph with regards to stress on the arm? It just seems ill advised to throw as hard as you can all the time.
Keith Law: In theory, yes, I agree with you, but the unknowable variable here is how much it taxes Skenes’ arm to throw 100 versus 96. I’m hoping that the splinker helps take some of the pressure off him to throw 100, because the four-seamer doesn’t play as well at the lower end of his range – it doesn’t have much ride or run, while the splinker has a lot more vertical break and I think hitters are going to have a really hard time hitting it anywhere but into the ground.

Mj: Is Brett Bateman a prospect? No power at all, but gets on base at a really high clip and is fast. Or am I just dreaming of lead off men of my youth?
Keith Law: I’d really have to see him do something in AA given his age/experience before buying into it.

SCG: Keith, first of all, thanks for all your work put and also for the chats! Do you see Vance Honeycutt going in the first two rounds? Is it possible he moves into the first round?
Keith Law: It is possible he goes in the first, but on merit he’s a second rounder, and I know teams are well aware of his holes at the plate. He’s at a 30% K rate in the ACC this year, and everyone remembers Jud Fabian, who is punching out too often while repeating AA this year.
Keith Law: It’s a similar profile: ++ power, ++ CF defense, too much whiff.

Braydon: In your mock you said the class overall is one of the weakest you can remember. How does the Top 11 specifically compare to the top of recent drafts?
Keith Law: It’s weaker. A strong top of the draft will nearly always color our collective opinion of a draft.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Your latest mock has the Orioles pointing to several position players, but with Burnes heading out of town, DL Hall gone, and control/command question marks on Povich and McDermott, which pitchers would you have them draft?
Keith Law: I’d have them take the best player available, and in my mock I project what I believe teams will do, not what they should do. I don’t think the O’s have taken a pitcher in the first round under Elias, and I know from mutual acquaintances that the Appel-Aiken-Whitley picks have soured him on doing so again. (Who could blame him?)

Z Chow: Big fan of your work, Keith. Do you collect any baseball cards or memorabilia at all?
Keith Law: I do not. I’m not much for collecting; I do have a large board game collection, but I’d only say about 8-10 of them are ones I have “collected” versus games I like and think I might play again. I have a first edition of Egizia, for example, that is worth a decent amount, and the second edition changed some of the rules and the board in a way I don’t care for, so I’m hanging on to this.

Chris: What kind of trade package would you be comfortable sending over for Luis Robert? Vs what would you be asking for if you were the white Sox?
Keith Law: They should ask for the Juan Soto deal (the first one, with Wood and Gore and Abrams). He’s got three years left after this one, including two club options, and that is worth a TON – he’s under control but you have the choice to walk away if something goes wrong.

William C: What can the Athletics reasonably expect in return for Mason Miller?  Follow up, what would you give up for him? I figure the answers differ given your thoughts on closers.
Keith Law: If I’m trading for Miller, I’m valuing him as if he had two years of control left, because his injury history says expecting anything beyond that is pure fantasy. Even that might be optimistic but if you think he’s only good for another half-season you’re just not trading for him.

Heather: Do you ever watch college baseball on television, or is that just a completely useless way of scouting?
Keith Law: I watch it but it’s not great for scouting – the angles are all wrong – more for just getting the feel for how the players are playing rather than breaking down mechanics. Can certainly see how a player is approaching an at bat, for example.

Matt: What’s with all these athletes being MAGA Chuds? Schilling, Butker, LT, Mariano Rivera, etc. It’s amazing, really.
Keith Law: Those guys don’t all have equivalent beliefs, mind you. But I think they all have similar religious backgrounds, and for some reason, the evangelical movement has moved very, very far to the right – even though I think that’s inconsistent with the secular aspects of Christ’s philosophy (omitting questions of his divinity).

Jeremy: Thru 119 PA, Rowdy Tellez is batting .178/.252/.234 (.486) with a 42 OPS+,42WRC+ after 351 PA batting .215/.291/.376 (.667) with a 81OPS+, 78WRC+ in 2023. How long will the Pirates take to finally start playing him less, and why hasn’t it happened yet?
Keith Law: I don’t know, and I don’t know.
Keith Law: Tellez has over 2000 MLB PA at this point and he’s almost dead replacement level. You have to have someone better than him in AAA or you’ve failed.

Santaspirt: I either miss your chats and remember the question I had for you, or I show up to your chats and forget what I wanted to ask you. There is no in between. Anyway, great mock. I only have the Athletic because of your writing.
Keith Law: Thank you! Maybe you’ll remember before 2 pm.

Rafael G.: What is Coby Mayo’s Ceiling?  He is hitting the cover off the ball, but does he have a chance for passable defense at third?
Keith Law: If you’re betting on an ultimate position, I’d say RF > 1B > 3B. But I don’t think it’s impossible he stays at third, in a vacuum, assuming he didn’t die from the lack of oxygen. They just have a lot of infielders who are better.

Danny: The Yankees have pushed recent draft picks to play premium positions that the general consensus did not agree (Wells at C, Sweeney staying at SS and Jones in CF). Do you think they could do the same with Jordan, Waldschmidt or Moore?
Keith Law: Yes. Even when I don’t agree that the player can stay there, I think it’s a smart developmental approach. What do you lose by playing a guy at the toughest (and most valuable) possible position he could play? Very little, I think. And maybe you prove the consensus wrong.

Josh: Assume if the Guardians go well below slot at 1:1 it’s just a money saving move and a mistake? Those vanity senate runs by Matt Dolan can’t be cheap.
Keith Law: It would be to go after some over-slot guys with later picks. I’ve heard several times that this is their plan. I just don’t think this draft offers the same quantity of over-slot candidates that last year did, or even 2021 when the Pirates took Henry Davis well under slot and then got two of their top prospects today in Chandler and Solometo.

Joe: Possible we are seeing a delayed breakout for Clarke Schmidt or Luis Gil?
Keith Law: I had Schmidt on my breakout list this year so of course I’m hoping that’s true. Gil has always had a great arm, but he’s leading the AL in walks, and it’s especially acute vs LHB.

Dr. Bob: People complain about the Dodgers pricing other teams out of competition. I understand that contracts like they gave to Ohtani and Yamamoto might not fit their budgets, but they could spend much less money to build scouting and player development systems like L.A. has. That’s how they get players like Andy Pages and Teoscar Hernandez.
Keith Law: That so few teams have maintained scouting, development, and R&D staffs like the Dodgers is baffling to me. We can all joke about Dodgers Devil Magic, but jesus it’s right there in front of you. They employ more people in those departments, and they have those departments working together as well as any organization in baseball. It’s not a secret. If you made me a GM or President of BB Ops, I would copy them. Like, print the org chart, change the names, rock and roll.

addoeh: Ryan Sloan a second rounder or compensatory round candidate?
Keith Law: I’d say between picks 20 and 40. Over-slot if he gets past 30. I was supposed to see him last night but the rain was coming so I came home and saw Bryce Meccage instead.

Geoff: What is going on with Bazzana all of a sudden becoming the top guy in most recent mock drafts? Is it solely because of that report from ESPN? Or is there something that is going around that everyone knows about?
Keith Law: What report from ESPN? Bazzana’s been a 1-1 candidate all spring, and he’s had a tremendous year. He and Condon are the only two realistic candidates for 1-1 in my view, although I mentioned a third name in the mock today because I heard Cleveland might consider it.
Keith Law: BTW, I was able to see a live feed of Konnor Griffin’s game last night. It was tied, and with no one on and two outs, Griffin’s coach intentionally walked a batter – the potential winning run – only to see him come around and score. It has to be one of the worst unforced managerial errors I’ve ever seen.

Gabriel: Keith you were always a fan of Mathew Lugo. Is his current production a sign of him finally meeting expectations or is it just a player that is now too old for AA
Keith Law: He’s repeating the level and still striking out too often, but I do think the power surge is real. He might still find a way to the majors.

Justin Y: Kevin Alcantara just can’t seem to get over the hump it feels like. Is he just going to be a late bloomer?
Keith Law: He’s 21 in AA. He’s younger than most of the college guys about to get drafted.

Troy: Would sending Chourio down be a good idea or is there just not much for him to learn in AAA?
Keith Law: Don’t think he has anything to learn in AAA. The gap between that level and the majors is enormous. Teams have to adjust and be willing to let hitters come up and struggle for a few months as they adjust to better pitching. It was true with Holliday and with Henry Davis and Kjerstad too.

Guest: Hey Keith, thanks for the chat. A’s fan here who thought we should have drafted Shaw but not too upset w/Wilson. How would you rank Shaw last year vs other 2B Bazzana & Wetherholt this year? Thanks
Keith Law: Shaw’s comparable to those guys as hitters, probably more power than Wetherholt, less pure hit tool. Can’t comment on Wetherholt’s defense at this point since he’s barely played the field (and barely moved when he has).

Matt: When Harper was drafted, how did teams know he was a generational talent? What set him aside that everyone knew the Nationals were taking him as opposed to a normal draft where you hope the pick pans out?
Keith Law: We’d seen him against older competition since he was 15. He was as obvious a 1-1 pick as we might ever see.

Dugan: What is going on with Jack Leiter? He seemed to dominate AAA, but has been totally lost in all of his MLB games. Anything in particular going on?
Keith Law: Yeah, his 4-seamer has guys racing to the bat rack. He might as well walk to the plate and put it on a tee. Hitters will tell you if a pitch isn’t any good, and they’re telling us, loudly. At this point I’d send him down and see if he can throw a decent two-seamer because the four-seamer is way too straight and doesn’t have other attributes to make up for it.

David: Do you see any chance Condon or Bazzana fall to Rox at 3? and would they still take one of Smith/Burns if one of those guys were still on the board?
Keith Law: I did outline a scenario like that in the mock. I think they’d take the hitter if one fell.

Justin: You previously had some not so favorable reports about Jacob Gonzalez based on what you saw last year. There’s some talk of changes to his swing along with some pretty solid stats to start the year. Have you noticed a change in his swing and are you feeling better about him going forward?
Keith Law: No. He’s too advanced for high-A anyway and we’re not seeing a big change in outcomes.

Tom: Have you seen Tegan Kuhns pitch and what do you think of him?
Keith Law: Tried to see early, got rained out (2″ in two days), and since then I’ve heard the velocity has tapered. Think he’s slid out of any first-round consideration; there’s already a bias against 6′ HS RHP, and if he’s not showing elite stuff maybe he ends up at NC State and tries to be a top 10 pick in three years.

Matt: Does Max Clark have a chance at AA this year?
Keith Law: I think he’ll finish there.

Adam D.: With the draft class being as weak as it is, who would you say is the “best of the rest” after the top-tier guys? One pitcher and one hitter to look out for?
Keith Law: I’ll do an updated ranking next week – I was going to do one this week and the mock next Wednesday, but decided to switch them – but the hitter would be Tibbs and the pitcher would be Cijntjie.

Luis: Hi Keith! Great content as usual! Any new board games worth checking out to play with  my 9 & 12 year old kids ?
Keith Law: Trio, Mycelia, Wandering Towers are the best fits for that age group I’ve played recently. I need to play Pixies again but liked it on first play.

cross: when you say you have teams on college bats, do you look at their draft history and traits that they like when you link them to a bat in said draft or do you go off of intel? (asking for the marlins / blue jays)
Keith Law: Both, but draft history only matters if the decision-makers are the same.

Jackie: Do you watch “The Amazing Race”?  The contestants were in the Dominican Republic last week, and Bartolo Colon made an appearance.  He looked good — I’d say about 30-40 pound less than his playing weight.  Truth be told, I had no idea he had finally retired.  If you had told me he was starting for the Mets last week, I would’ve believed you.
Keith Law: I was hoping he’d stage one more comeback because he was the last MLB player older than I am. (I do not watch the show.)

Matt: What’s really odd is these teams skimping on R&D will also go out and overspend on free agents. Like, you have the money. Put it to good use.
Keith Law: Right, I’d rather have all of that staff than an $8 million free agent who’s unlikely to deliver the same ROI.

Guest: What are your thoughts on Christian Scott? Looking like a legit #3 SP?
Keith Law: I could see that. I said he had above-average starter potential when I wrote him up this winter. But he’s never even thrown 90 innings in a season, so I have a hard time just saying he’s a legit #3 when we assume that pitcher is at least throwing 150-160 innings.

Dugan: Is Matt Wilkinson just overpowering lower levels, or are the skills there real and ready to play at higher levels?
Keith Law: I know in juco he was in the upper 80s and succeeded by changing speeds to get inexperienced hitters out. I don’t have any info from this year, sorry, but I’d be shocked if he was suddenly throwing gas.

Mike: How far out has Jenkins injury pushed him? Does this delay his progress by a year, or it doesn’t matter all that much? thanks,
Keith Law: Walker? Don’t think this matters in the long run.

Richard: Is Luke Holman a back end starter or does he have mid-rotation upside?
Keith Law: Delivery is really iffy for durability. I know he had a longer arm stroke before going to LSU … maybe someone drafts him and cleans it up enough so that he can be more of a back-end starter.

Justin: If you’re the White Sox, do you trade Robert, Fedde, Crochet, etc?
Keith Law: Yes. Anything that’s not nailed down.

Greg: Have you heard anything about an Owen Murphy breakout? I’m just scouting the stat line but it looks good so far.
Keith Law: No breakout, just a good command/control guy dominating hitters who don’t have the plate discipline to compete. He doesn’t have a swing-and-miss pitch in the arsenal.

J: I struggle with players like James Tibbs. I feel like if there was more confidence that he would be a true middle of the order bat, he would be grouped with Kurtz/Cags. But since he seems to be a tier below them, I’m wondering how valuable is a ~6 hole hitter with negative defensive value?
Keith Law: Is he a 6-hole hitter or maybe a 2-hole guy? I think that’s the question teams are facing. I know models love him.

Marc: Keith, the pirates have chosen to go with a 6-man rotation with the unstated but clearly underlying goal of limiting innings for their young pitchers. Is there any evidence that extending time between starts is good for arm health? Also wondered what you thought of Skenes’s first start in the big leagues. Thanks!
Keith Law: My understanding is that more rest is better than less, but I don’t know of evidence of whether six-man rotations are better than five-man. I’d rather see this, and then guys pitching a little deeper into games, than the alternative of a five-man rotation and Jared Jones coming out at 59 pitches.

Mike: Was hoping you could opine on WVU as a baseball program. Back 10+ years ago when i was there, they barely even had a program. Now with manoah, means, whetherholt and i think a few others, theyre generating a lotta talent. Any idea why?
Keith Law: Being in the Big 12 with a tremendous facility has to help from recruiting to development.

Nick: How does Condon compare to Kris Bryant as a prospect coming out of college?
Keith Law: I think Condon’s a better athlete – little twitchier, might stay up the middle – but Bryant had more raw power. HRs are up all over college baseball this year. Every time I go to a college game and see how the ball flies, I wonder, who’s been screwing with this thing?
Keith Law: That’s all for this week … plans may shift slightly with my upcoming travel but I hope to have a top 100 draft ranking up on Wednesday of next week. Thanks for all of your questions and for reading, as always. Stay safe.

Keith Law: Really don’t mind if you sit this one out. Klawchat.

Brett: Is Ralphy Velasquez a guy, or could be a GUY?
Keith Law: The bat looks like a GUY, but he’s only playing first base now and that raises the bar significantly (versus catching).

Matt: How excited should I be about Wichrowski?
Keith Law: Great arm, up to 96-97 with a really sharp slider (maybe a sweeper, I hate that term), no pitch for lefties – it’s FB, SL, cutter, and the cutter isn’t great – so right now it’s a relief profile. Arm action seems fine to start; maybe he can learn a splitter or split-change to give him that extra pitch he needs for LHB?

Josh: Is Matt Wilkinson an actual prospect or just old for his level?
Keith Law: He’s definitely old for his level, and his season line is a bit skewed by one incredible start (6 IP, 15 K!). I’d rather say we just don’t know, and that he should at least be in high A now, given the results. LHB are striking out half the time they face him, which is a pretty good starting point.

Zirinsky: Hey there Keith. Thanks for doing these chats. I’m curious: how would you handle what’s going on on various college campuses (protests, etc.) if you were an administrator at one of them where there was a lot of activity?
Keith Law: I can tell you what I wouldn’t do: send in large groups of heavily armed police and hope I didn’t just create another Kent State. It’d be nice if they learned a single lesson from past protests. There’s also a great piece in the Atlantic today about how some of these same schools have touted their ‘activist’ credentials and talked up freedom of expression … and now they’re zip-tying professors and expelling students.

Dallas: Hi Keith- hope you are having a great day and I throughly enjoy your work. My question is regarding the development of the Pirates position players. We are in year 5 of the Cherington Era and several bats (Suwinski, Davis, Cruz, etc) are struggling mightily. Is there hope these guys can turn it around, or is the outlook as bleak as it appears?
Keith Law: Suwinski was never a ‘guy’ like the other two as a prospect; last year looked like a pretty big fluke. The others were very highly-rated prospects, for totally different reasons, but I think it’s fair to ask the question – and note that some of this goes back to the previous regime, as well. They really haven’t developed a hitter into an offensive star since Reynolds, who they got in a trade when he was 22 and already reasonably developed. Davis fits their mold of guys who can hit the ball hard, but don’t do it often enough. Cruz is unique among their guys in that it’s about approach and his unusual size, rather than too much weak contact.

Justin: Is there anything in Cade Povich’s arsenal thats actually improved from last year, or is this just a small sample stellar chunk where his true talent hasn’t really improved?
Keith Law: He’s working a lot more with a cutter now, and that probably explains a lot of the improvement, along with some good luck on BIP.

Justin: Over or under 60 wins for Oakland?
Keith Law: Over.

SamG: Cam Collier appears to have a nice start to the season. Obviously small sample size. Do you expect he plays the entire season in Dayton, or do you expect a promotion to AA if he continues to play well?
Keith Law: He’s 19; I hope they leave him in Dayton all year, or close to it. He’s performing very well overall, but obviously there’s some aggressiveness there early in counts that pitchers will exploit at some point.

J: Was Theo Gillen close to making your Draft top 50?
Keith Law: No, but he should have been, and he’ll be on the update in the top 30 or so.

Dana: Austin Wells isn’t terrible behind the plate! Not a Gold Glover, but somewhere between below average and average. Are you willing to issue a formal mea culpa on that one?
Keith Law: He is way worse than you are saying. Already a ton of balls getting past him. Also hard eye roll at “formal mea culpa.” The fuck does that even mean?

Matt K: Thank you for chatting, Keith. As a Brewer fan, very excited for the kids they already have up in the majors, and the ones to come. Do you think Sal Frelick will be able to start elevating more to get his ISO into a more helpful area – sorta what Tyler Black has seemed to?
Keith Law: Don’t think Frelick’s ever going to be a high ISO guy – could be a high average, high doubles type.

Matt: Should Drew Thorpe get called up to the majors soon, or is keeping him as far away as possible from Chicago best for his development (and general wellbeing)?
Woody: Are CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore making the leap this year? And where do you think Abrams’s long-term defensive home is? Second base?
Keith Law: Thorpe: No idea why he’s in AA. I would get him to AAA and see what happens there with his below-average FB. He’s not missing a ton of bats in AA right now, but he’s too good of a pitcher (in terms of feel, mixing pitches, command) for that level. I wouldn’t call him up tot he majors now or soon.
Keith Law: Abrams: He was on my breakouts list, so of course I hope this is real. I thought we’d see more hard contact, and we are, even though his top-end contact quality hasn’t changed.

Gore: I want to believe, and there are some things here I think are sustainable, like the improved strike-throwing, and at least some of the reduction in hard contact allowed. He’s such a good athlete that I figured at some point he’d get that delivery consistent enough to be a low walk guy.

Justin: Do we have any idea what’s up with River Ryan?   Any chance this injury results in him having high quality bullets left in September for the big league club?
Keith Law: He was supposed to be out 4-6 weeks, I think. I am assuming we’ll see him rehabbing very soon, based on that timetable. I would not anticipate him pitching in the majors this year.

Guest: Alex Bohm has been hitting really well but his defense has surprised me. I am not saying he’s even average but his turnaround from where he was at his lowest has been a surprise to even get to the point where he is at now.  What do you make of his defense?
Keith Law: I think he’s at least a 50 (average) defender now. He started to show a lot of this last year, and so far this year he’s been that guy more consistently.

Braydon: Brody Brecht has been much better his last two starts. Can his final few starts of the year improve his draft stock significantly?
Keith Law: I don’t think “significantly,” but maybe slightly. He’s probably the fourth college starter taken after Burns, Smith, Yesavage. Word is the Angels would just take Yesavage and rush him to the big leagues. If that’s true those three arms all go in the top ten, and then we may not see another pitcher taken until the back half of the round.

JT: How does Kurtz compare to recent bat first 1B draftees such as Vaughn and Torkelson?
Keith Law: He reminds me a lot of Vaughn, but he’s a LHB, and I think he has better bat speed right now than Vaughn did. Still a worrisome profile. Was very glad to see Kurtz come back from the injury and get way more aggressive – when I saw him this year and even last year I worried he was taking to take, happy to walk, rather than looking to do damage in advantageous counts.
Keith Law: Torkelson was a different profile – nowhere near as disciplined as the other two, more raw power, decent argument he was power over hit. I ranked him highly, so I don’t want to make it sound like I didn’t like him or think he was a good pick, but I didn’t think he was a great athlete and thought he was a guy who’d have to hit from day one because he may not make adjustments that easily.
Keith Law: Vaughn, BTW, may be one of the biggest busts in the last 20 years. That guy dominated in the Pac-12 for three years – the Pac-12 used to be a major college conference, kids – and there was nothing about the swing to make you doubt he’d at least hit for average with high OBPs. The White Sox definitely rushed him, but at some point he needs to make an adjustment, too.

Jibraun: I know it’s only been a month, but is it too early to think Goldschmidt is in age-related decline? He looks like he has lost bat speed, and he is compensating by cheating fastball and guessing.
Keith Law: I think that’s exactly what’s happening. He does seem to have lost bat speed. Father Time is undefeated.

Jordan Walker: What is going on? Why can’tI hit in the majors? A piece in the Athletic thinks hitting too low in the lineup is partially to blame. That can’t be true?
Keith Law: I don’t agree with that premise, and I think “can’t hit” is too strong. He hits the ball extremely hard, and he makes plenty of contact on pitches in the zone. I think there are some minor swing decision issues, and he hit the ball on the ground too often in the majors this year, but man, give the guy more than a month. It feels like they’re scrambling.

Aaron C.: It’s been 30 days. Small sample size caveats duly noted. Have you heard any indication that Jacob Wilson has been eating his Wheaties or hitting the weight room or otherwise gotten stronger? Am I trying to read too much into his hot start at Midland? WHO CAN SAY
Keith Law: Haha. I will say he’s doing all the damage at Midland, a crazy hitter’s park.

Jake: Surprised by the amazing start by Imonaga?
Keith Law: No. He’s a good pitcher doing really well in a small sample. I would be surprised if he did this all year, yes.

Jake: Any thoughts on Sasaki as a prospect or is it too soon?
Keith Law: No idea. He’s too far off the radar for me to worry about.

Louise: I re-read your piece on the Cubs signing Imanaga. Would you say you are feeling better about this concern?

“My main concern is that he cuts himself off in his landing and spins off his front heel, giving right-handed hitters too good of a look at the ball, which is how they tagged him for 13 of the 17 homers he allowed last season in NPB. Getting him even slightly more online plus using the splitter more to right-handers could be a remedy if that turns out to be an issue for him against MLB hitters.”
https://theathletic.com/5191790/2024/01/10/shota-imanaga-chicago-cubs-…
Keith Law: No, because we’re still looking at a tiny sample, and if you think he’s going to maintain a sub-5% HR/flyball rate or a 90% strand rate, well, good luck. He’s a solid major-league starter. When the weather warms up, will all those flyballs stay in the park?

Aaron C.: There’s a popular prompt that asks which pro athlete would you wish had a 100% healthy career. The best answer is usually Bo Jackson, of course. Since you’ve started scouting who is the guy(s) you most wish had been blessed with better health?
Keith Law: How about Byron Buxton?

Aaron C.: Whatcha got in the current weeknight dinner rotation? Looking to appease my beloved, but often ungrateful family.
Keith Law: Spring means more salads, for sure. My wife and I split cooking duties, so I cook about half of the nights, and I try to do at least one pasta dish a week. Sometimes it’s pasta alla vodka, sometimes pasta with fresh pesto (it’s warm enough now for the basil plants to survive outdoors), sometimes a pasta dish I made up with sun-dried tomatoes, white beans, and parmiggiano broth.
Keith Law: oh and pizza – once my travel dies down in 2-3 weeks I’ll get the Ooni rocking again.

mike: Do the BlueJays move on from Bo and Vladdy?? Right now their value is very low but Something sure isn’t working with both guys – and they have looked ordinary for quite some time.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t sell low, if that’s your question.

Ian: What are your thoughts on Marcelo Mayer’s start to the season? It looks like he is healthy and mashing. It felt like a bit of his shine wore off last year with the injuries.
Keith Law: I agree with your last two sentences. I think there was an overreaction to him not performing when he wasn’t 100% healthy. That said, in a limited sample, he’s doing all of his damage off fastballs, and he’s struggling against breaking stuff, especially sliders. Worth monitoring, although I am not backing off my top-10 overall ranking for him.

The Master Without Margarita: Roddery Munoz is obviously not this good, but can he be actually decent?
Keith Law: He walked a man an inning in AAA before they called him up. He walked 15% of guys last year across the Nats’ system. I do not believe he has suddenly found the strike zone on the bus from Jacksonville to Miami.

Tim: Tyler Freeman looks good under the hood – strong plate skills, good contact rates, consistently hitting the ball hard – but the results are dreadful to this point. Do you think the results eventually catch up to the process?
Keith Law: Until this year it’s been all groundballs – I mean, you can see a parallel to Walker, until you look at the two players’ bodies. If Freeman is actually lifting the ball more, he can probably end up an average regular somewhere. I have my doubts that this is really him.

Tim: Is Zac Veen back? Still a chance of an above-average regular here?
Keith Law: This is now his third partial year in AA. I wouldn’t get overly excited about a hot four weeks in a level where he played in 2023 and 2022.

Oscar W: Yoelqui “would be ranked lower as ‘bagodonuts” Céspedes is now playing independent baseball in Fargo ND. Surprised he’s out of affiliate baseball so quick? A lot of Cuban prospects are older but why such a high bust rate (Tomas, Rusney, Yoan L, etc). Even the successes are not as bright Yoenis/Moncada.
Keith Law: I give the White Sox a ton of credit for just moving on. He wasn’t happening, ever, so why waste the time and roster spot on him?

Sean: Have heard some buzz on low-A arms Santiago Suarez and Charlee Soto as early season breakouts. Do you see both as long-term starters? Either with mid or top of rotation potential?
Keith Law: Both have TOR potential, with low probability. Suarez > Soto, I think.

harry coffeeboat: keith – huge fan! what do you know about that palmquist guy from colorado? is it possible he finally becomes a legit rockies starter?
Keith Law: I think that’s a no-doubt reliever with his arm slot.

Mart: How was your trip to Pittsburgh to see WVU dominate the panthers
Keith Law: Great! Caught up with three of my old classmates from Tepper, and we got an absolutely perfect day for baseball. Plus I had a great lunch at Areppita’s downtown – I stayed right near there so I walked everywhere, including to/from PNC.

Guest: Thoughts on loperfido as a prospect?
Keith Law: Right here: https://theathletic.com/5263881/2024/02/14/astros-2024-top-prospects-k…

Guest: Do you consider cam fisher a legit prospect?
Keith Law: He’s 23 and striking out over a third of the time in the hitter’s paradise of Asheville. It’s power without hit.

Andy: How do you feel about Iowa’s strategy on high school baseball, with it not starting until May. It means you’re more likely to get more of the season in, but does it hurt when it comes to recruiting/scouting?
Keith Law: The real prospects end up playing for local travel teams or in the league Perfect Game runs out there, so they get seen anyway. I have mixed feelings; if the real purpose is to benefit the players, then starting later is clearly better, because you can’t bank on decent weather there until about now and you don’t want kids playing in cold and/or damp conditions.

Sedona: Have you watched Ranger Suarez’s starts this year?  Do you think he’s turned the corner and perhaps the best 3 in the game or better?
Keith Law: He’s a 2 on just about any team.

CW Tampa Tarpons: Have you had a chance to watch Leo De Vries, and if so, what’s your first impression?
Keith Law: Got a look at him in spring training: https://theathletic.com/5352531/2024/03/19/scouting-mlb-breakout-games…

Sedona: We’re always looking for the next breakout Ace from the DSL in the Fantasy Dynasty Community.  Who do you think has a chance to be the next Eury?  Have you heard anything about Jeter Martinez?
Keith Law: I saw him in the spring … great arm, chance for a starter, didn’t love the delivery.

CW Tampa Tarpons: Any chance Justin Crawford makes it to the bigs this year, or is 2025 and beyond more realistic?
Keith Law: Zero chance. He’s in high A and is only 20.

Xander: You were the high man on Wilyer Abreu and that’s looking quite savvy at the moment – what kind of player does he settle in as?  His continued BB% and K% improvement is really encouraging, is this a 4-5 WAR guy or more like 3 WAR?
Keith Law: I’d take the 4+ WAR.

PJ: Is Hayden Wesneski’s future as a 2-3 inning guy (like a Scot Shields type) or can he be a long-term starter.
Keith Law: I think he’s more of a bulk guy, but can make some spot starts.

andy: gimme a mlb floor and ceiling comp for charlie condon
Keith Law: I don’t really do player comps unless they are blindingly obvious to me. He’s got a chance to be a superstar – it’s 30 homer power with hard, hard contact and a strong eye. Probably ends up in RF.

Tripp: Possibly odd question about Caminero. Love the opposite field power, but he hits a lot of balls to right. Is him being routinely late a potential cause of concern? Could big time velocity be an issue for him?
Keith Law: Not that I’ve seen or heard.

Sedona: We see an uptick in young pitchers learning the splitter.  Tanner Houck looks like an ace so far.  Is this real?
Keith Law: I think so. I was always down on him as a starter because he had no weapon for LHB, and the lower arm slot gave those guys too much of a look at the ball. The splitter directly addresses that issue. I’ve been a splitter advocate forever, since I was with Toronto – I know of no actual evidence it increases injury risk, and if a guy can throw it, it’s a great alternative to a changeup (and straight changeups are losing popularity).

Justin Y: Will Warren looks like he can pitch, do you have the same concerns you had prior to this season?
Keith Law: I don’t know what you mean when you say he “looks like he can pitch.” Are you saying he has good control? He does. Command? Less so, but sure. My main concern on him going back to forever is that left-handed batters whack him around, and they’re doing so again (.500 SLG).

Bobby: Any of the international free agents looking better or worse to you than expected?
Keith Law: Most of them haven’t even played yet.

Josh: Any new thoughts on Andy Pages? He’s been solid in the bigs so far. Know you liked him in the past and was worried about the injury last year. Just wondering if there’s anything in his MLB performance that has you excited.
Keith Law: I overreacted to the shoulder injury. That’s my mistake. I’m buying, fully. Above-average regular.

Kevin W: Do you feel any different physically at 50 than 40?
Keith Law: Yes. Certainly slower to bounce back from exercise. I’ve got some compression in a disc in my lower back that’s probably age-related, but it’s become a chronic thing. And I need glasses more and more.

Brett: Which Dodgers OF are you higher on as of now, Josue De Paula or Zyhir Hope?
Keith Law: De Paula, same as in February.

Kevin W: How is the college application process going with your daughter?
Keith Law: She picked a school a few weeks ago, so it’s all done, and I think she’s more relieved than anything else. The New York Times has a great story from yesterday on what a shitshow it’s been this year.

Mike Trout: I’m seeing (bad faith) comparisons drawn between things like the college protests and the insurrection or Noem’s puppy killing and the treatment of the Biden dogs. How do we convince people that these things are not at all the same?
Keith Law: I am not sanguine about convincing people who are already convinced. I agree those are bad-faith comparisons, but people offering them aren’t coming from a place of critical thinking.

Adam D.: With Reggie Crawford at Double-A, am I crazy to think he could be a bullpen option for the Giants this summer?
Keith Law: They sure as hell seem to want him that way. At this rate he won’t be built up to start until 2029.

A Salty Scientist: In recent years lots of prospects have really struggled with the MLB transition. One hypothesis I’ve seen is that the reduction of minor league teams has bled out some of the veteran AAAA types that increase the challenge for top prospects. Not sure that I buy that, but curious if you have any thoughts.
Keith Law: I agree, and I’ve been saying so (based on feedback from scouts) since 2021. Mike Elias made very similar, pointed comments on it last week when they sent Holliday down. I also think that the rise of pitching labs & pitch design has made major-league pitching stronger than ever – and if you can make those adjustments, you don’t stay in the minors long, so the caliber of pitching down there hasn’t advanced as quickly.

Jimmy: Is ’Change Shapes’ more the in wheelhouse for Lauren Mayberry’s solo stuff?
Keith Law: I like it more than the first two singles.

A Salty Scientist: A formal mea culpa has to come from the Vatican, otherwise it’s just a sparkling apology. (not sorry)
Keith Law: I’ll allow it.

Rob: Christopher Morel is (unfortunately) floundering at 3B this season, both at the plate and in the field. If you were Jed, when would Matt Shaw start his decade long dominance at 3B for the Cubs?
Keith Law: I’m a Shaw believer but he has cooled off the last two weeks and I wouldn’t rush him to fill a need.
Keith Law: Meaning you don’t call a guy up from AA when he’s not hitting that well overall.

Frank: Why isnt Skenes in the majors?  This seems like pure service time manipulation at this point.
Keith Law: It’s not service-time manipulation; that date already passed. That’s not a fair criticism. I think Skenes belongs in the majors, but I don’t think there’s a nefarious reason why he’s not.

John: Is Konnor Griffin to the Nats possible (I know it is early).  Does he fit what Ciolek and Haas like?  I hope they can get him to 10 similar to House in 2021.  Thank you.
Keith Law: I’d be surprised. I don’t think that’s their type of player.

Tim: What’s up with Corbin?  Sophomore slump or something more?
Keith Law: Last I looked he wasn’t making anywhere near as much hard contact as last year. Could be a fluke, could be he’s fighting some small injury we don’t know about.

Steve: I name you President of a small market team tomorrow (in a city with great food, just so we can keep you).    What are the 3 things you are going to push the owner to spend on that will give him the most return on his spendings?
Keith Law: People. A full scouting staff, amateur and pro. Plenty of coaches and instructors in player development. The same for R&D, even though those employees are the most expensive. I do not believe you can McKinsey your way to a championship.

Steve: Question on Nolan McLean.   As much as it’s 70 power, it looks like it’s a 30 hit tool.    Do you think letting him continue to hit hurts his potential development on the mound, or do you keep letting him go until he fails enough to come to that conclusion on his own?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s hurting him to hit a little because I think he’s going to end up in the bullpen anyway.

Steve: Hi Keith – process question for you.    Given SSS, how do you go about updating your thoughts on prospects who start off hot or cold?   If you see crazy stats (either way) for someone, do you call the team and ask, try to get in and see them, or just ignore until June/July?
Keith Law: There’s a reason I haven’t done that yet. I’ll probably update the pro list later in May or early in June, depending on travel. But right now it would be overreaction theatre, or it would just be me repeating stuff I said in February.

Tracy: I just finished reading Jonathan Strange and Mr Norrell. While it was certainly imaginative and well thought out, I found it long and plodding; it did not grab my attention and I had a hard time finishing it. Just my opinion. Anyway, I’ve always wanted to ask: is there an author whose prose style you enjoy so much that it doesn’t matter what the story is?
Keith Law: Ann Patchett.

CK: Do you find writing to be therapeutic, or not really because it is your job?
Keith Law: I love writing. Doesn’t matter what it’s about. And the more I write the better I tend to feel.

Chris P: I see JJ Wetherholt is back to hitting very well, but has he still been off the diamond or are they getting him reps at short?
Keith Law: I saw him stand at short on Tuesday at PNC Park. He should only be DHing. He hit pretty well for a guy with one leg, though.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions and your readership. I’ll do another one at least when I update my draft rankings in a couple of weeks. Stay safe.

My top 50 draft prospects ranking is now up for subscribers to The Athletic.

Keith Law: I need to lighten my load. Klawchat.

Hogie: You said during spring training that you didn’t think James Wood was ready for the majors. Have you changed your mind at all given his start in Rochester?
Keith Law: No, because it’s April 18th. It’s a minuscule sample.

Guest: have you seen Cade McGee at Texas Tech. Saw him the other night against Arkansas. Good power, looks athletic, been hit by a pitch 20 times this year which has, along with 31 walks really helped his OBP which is around .500
Keith Law: I haven’t seen Texas Tech, but McGee isn’t showing much power or hard contact in games. I also don’t view high HBP totals as a particularly valuable skill.

JD: Is Pages ready to stick at the major league level or do you anticipate this will be a short stay for him and that he needs more time at AAA?
Keith Law: He was really good in the 50 games he did play last year and this year around the shoulder injury, with what looked like a more advanced approach than he’d had in 2022. “Short stay” is really about team needs, but if they’re willing to give him the time to adjust I think he can have a positive WAR this year.

Taylor Swift: Will you be listening to the Tortured Poets Department tonight?
Keith Law: I didn’t know that album was coming out tonight. (I knew it was coming out at some point.)

J: 18 year-old Nelson Rada is at AA for the Angels for no discernible reason.  Why is Nelson Rada at AA? Why skip High-A? Why?
Keith Law: I have no idea.

Lucas: If I remember correctly, Jordan Westburg was seen as a little bit of a gutsy pick in 2020 because there were some swing and miss issues at Mississippi State. How has he gotten better in a relatively short period of time?
Keith Law: He was a COVID year pick, and was off to a good start at MSU. It’s quite possible he’d already started making that adjustment and we didn’t see it in enough of a sample because the world ended.

Drew: As a Cleveland fan, it seems like there’s separation between Condon and everyone else. How worried should I be they’ll cut a deal with a lesser player in a draft that seems weak for overslot guys later?
Keith Law: Very.

Guest: What should we make of Jackson Hollidays slow start at the plate?
Keith Law: Nothing.

Mike: Mike Trout is good at baseball.
Keith Law: He is. But go look at what he did in his first call-up.

BC: With Morel playing improved defense at third recently, is there still a path to the Cubs for Matt Shaw this year?
Keith Law: Improved defense? He’s already at -2 OAA and it’s not even May. Come on.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Matthew Etzel showed up in your Orioles prospect honorable mentions – so far he’s had a handful of multi-hit games (admittedly aided by miserable MiLB infield defense), but do you have any read on his CF play?
Keith Law: No idea, haven’t seen him or much minor league stuff yet while I focus on the draft.

Derek: Hi Keith, been following your work for years and why I paid for ESPN and now the Athletic.  Surprised to see you venture to more in front of the camera with Stadium.  I’ll admit I haven’t had a chance to watch your show yet and didn’t seem like I could go back and watch it.  Curious what made you decide to work with Stadium?  Will it impact any of your writing with the Athletic?
Keith Law: They approached me. It won’t affect my writing – they’re two separate deals.

Heston Kjerstad: Would I be a better piece in the O’s lineup right now than, say, O’Hearn or Mountcastle?
Keith Law: I think so.

Jason: Does DL hall profile more as a reliever long term?
Keith Law: It’s a real risk. I’m surprised that his issue has been lots of contact versus him just not throwing strikes.

J: Brandon McCarthy was talking about the Pirates’ handling of Skenes thus far at AAA, saying, “what are we doing?” Jared Jones was pulled by the Pirates after 59 pitches and 5 innings. At what point do teams stop ‘building’ pitchers up, and let them pitch? Not overworking young arms is one thing; this feels preposterous, counter-productive, and not based in anything but fear. Sorry if the actual question got lost in the shuffle, but I suppose it’s: When will this stop?
Keith Law: I really think we have enough evidence to say that limiting pitch counts reduces the incidence of shoulder injuries, but that limiting them to this extent doesn’t reduce the incidence entirely and it doesn’t reduce the incidence of UCL tears. I haven’t asked any Pirates people what’s going on, but I have the same question from afar. Let them pitch reasonable workloads and respond accordingly if they report pain or discomfort or fatigue (or if pitch data shows it).

Gordon: Didn’t think Michael Busch would be this good this quick. Does he really have this much power or is he still a 20 hr guy?
Keith Law: Still think he’s a 20 homer guy … I mean, maybe he’s a 24 homer guy, there’s always a range around those estimates, but I wouldn’t overreact to a hot start. He’s a good player. If he’s a superstar, I’d be surprised.

Justin: Obviously baseball is a very dangerous workplace as far as injuries go.   If any of our workplaces caused ligament surgeries every day, I’m not sure they’d still exist.  What is it about baseball and sports in general that make it ethical to continue subjecting people to activities that are clearly awful for the human body?  Informed consent?
Keith Law: The potential for seven- or eight-figure salaries.

J: Matt Shaw crushing AA (SSS and all that). Odds he makes the bigs this season? Before September?
Keith Law: I said before the season I thought he’d be up to play third base at some point – I still think more like midyear, and that they’ll push Shaw to AAA first.

Garrett: What’s your take on how CJ Abrams has looked so far?
Keith Law: Also a SSS, but I’m at least happy to see that he’s doing what I said he’d do and making much harder contact. There’s something sustainable here.

RL: Do you think lack of sticky stuff is contributing to arm injuries as some pitchers have said?
Keith Law: I’ve seen no evidence to back that up. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong – I just can’t support or debunk it.

Jacob: Thoughts on Rangers calling up Leiter?
Keith Law: I think he can help in some role – the arm action was cleaner in the spring and his body looked better. Only faced 57 batters in AAA but he at least was way more in the zone.

Steve: M’s seem to have been very aggressive with Clase. Have you heard of any adjustments that he has made that might allow him to stick, or is he destined to K too much?
Keith Law: I don’t believe he’s changed anything. Contact is going to be a chronic issue for him.

Mario: In your piece you noted that the draft class isn’t great after the second tier. Would this make teams less likely to try and spread out money and pick signability players in the top 10
Keith Law: Yes, it’s a terrible year to do that. Your best hope for an over-slot guy at your second pick is going to be a high school pitcher, and while I’m fine with teams taking those guys with later picks, I wouldn’t take a lesser player in the top 10 this year just to go get a better HS arm.

MagicOriole: What do you attribute Colton Cowser’s hot start to? Has he changed much from your prospect evaluation?
Keith Law: A .500 BABIP.

Rick: With all the recent call ups, who’s gonna be your mid-season Top Prospect?
Keith Law: It almost has to be Ethan Salas. He’s the top guy still in the minors, and if I did a live update now he’d be #1.

Nate: From a Stros fan…how much longer do you think it’ll take Jim crane to realize Jeff Bagwell doesn’t, in fact know baseball half as well as he thinks he does?
Keith Law: They have to fail at some point. Or I guess maybe waste another $50 million.

Mike: Think Christian Scott’s strong start indicates hes a potential number 2?
Keith Law: I don’t think his strong start indicates anything different from what we thought about him three weeks ago.

JR: Did you read Shogun? Are you watching/planning to watch the FX series airing right now? I’ve never read, but am really enjoying the show.
Keith Law: Never read. I know my parents liked the 1980s miniseries. They watched all of those like the Thorn Birds.

Jake: Any reason why there are so few HS guys you are high on compared to other years? Is Covid why they didn’t develop or is it just a fluke?
Keith Law: They’re just not out there this year, unfortunately. I don’t think there’s a reason – COVID didn’t hurt the 2023 HS class, for example. Just a down year for HS bats. The result will probably be some of them get drafted higher than area scouts expect – I hear more sandwich/second on Carter Johnson, for example, but I bet he sneaks into the late first.

Caleb: SSS alert!  But Masyn Winn has performed better-than-advertised at the plate so far, especially taking the ball the other way.  Change in approach that might lead to better numbers, or just SSS?
Keith Law: SSS but he’s also hitting the ball quite a bit harder this year, and making some better swing decisions than he did in his callup. That last bit is more in line with the hitter he was in the minors.

Chris: The Red Sox haven’t drafted a pitcher in the first round since 2017 and their farm system certainly reflects that. Could they finally do it this year?
Keith Law: Sure, I am not aware of any rule that prevents them from doing so.

Julie: Thank you for not sounding the alarm on Holliday. He’s less than two years out of high school playing 2nd base every day for a contender. The lineup he’s in is stacked. The O’s can afford for him to go through some growing pains, because the other guys will cover him. He will figure it out in the next few weeks and people will forget his slow start.
Keith Law: And maybe they send him back down at some point. He’ll be fine.

Refugee: Do you think the ball is juiced this year?
Keith Law: I think something is up in the college ranks. Either the ball is different, or the bats are.

I’m Joey Callo…C-allo: Any idea why Atlanta has decided to platoon Jared Kelenic. He didn’t show a platoon split in his breakout year last year and at 24 it seems a little early to pigeon-hole him that way.
Keith Law: He does have a platoon split for his career, and I think between Atlanta trying to win now and the hope that they can develop him into at least a good part-time player, platooning him in the short term is fine.

Kevin: Tanner Houck has added a solid splitter to his arsenal. Any chance he can be a mid rotation starter with this 3 pitch mix?
Keith Law: If that splitter really is the weapon he’s never had for LHB, then yes. That’s always been my main argument against him being a starter.

Alex: Among Braves pitching prospects, Owen Murphy is looking good so far and Hurston Waldrep is struggling. Anything about either of them in the early going that you’d take as grounds for optimism or concern?
Keith Law: It’s two outings for each guy.

Brent: Hey Klaw! Hope you’re enjoying the season more than this ChiSox fan. Boardgame question, have you played Memoir ’44? From the company that made Ticket to Ride. Love history and boardgames. Able to recommend?
Keith Law: Never played it.

Joe: Anything interesting going on with your gardening this year?
Keith Law: We tried to get an early start with our little greenhouse but the weather here has been so bad until this week that I think a lot of our efforts were wasted because we couldn’t transplant, either for cold or for torrential rains. We’re trying mostly to grow stuff that we will definitely eat – right now it’s peas, green beans, radishes, beets (ok that’s just me and my wife), mixed lettuce.

Bill: Gabe Arias for Real ?
Keith Law: Do I think a player with a .417 BABIP is for real? No, sir, I do not.

Sam Roberts: Is Cam Caminiti still a R1 in a better draft year?
Keith Law: I think he’s a first-round bonus guy. That could come after the actual first round ends, but in a strong year maybe he ends up a comp pick.

Tom: What do you about Tegan Kuhns (Gettysburg (PA))?
Keith Law: He’s on the list I posted today.

Bill: Since you’ll be in Chicago weekly….will you be checking out any Northwoods league Games ?
Keith Law: I doubt it. They’re not close to Chicago.

RH: Do you think top college hitters this year will try to force their way to the Angels so they can debut faster?
Keith Law: No, players just don’t have that kind of control over where they’re drafted. I do think the Angels will take whichever guy left on the board could be rushed to the majors this year.

Patrick: Do you see a six-man rotation coming into vogue, in an effort to minimize potential SP injuries?
Keith Law: I don’t see or know of any evidence that it would work. Do guys just exert more effort then because they’ve had the extra day to rest? The one factor for UCL tears which there is some actual research is throwing as hard as you can, as often as you can. In other words, if your personal max velocity is 94, and you sit 93-94 all the time, while personal max velocity is 98 but I sit 95-96 all the time, I might have a little lower risk of a UCL tear than you do.

Yinka Double Dare: How many messages will you send to Montverde begging them to be open on Mondays since that’s when you’re already in the city within a mile or so of them?
Keith Law: As much as I love that place, there are plenty of other places I need to try too.

Andrew: Not a prospect question, but I don’t see/hear anyone complaining about the netting around the ballpark.  What happened?
Keith Law: They’re busy complaining about DEI or trans people or some other non-issue.

Chris P: Hey Klaw, do you see Gage Jump being a starter in the pros and if so, could he likely go in the 2nd round?
Keith Law: He could go in the second round but I don’t think there’s any chance he can start with that delivery.

John: My son (15) just started playing baseball but loves pitching, doesn’t throw hard so he throws off speed mostly is the idea that curveballs shouldn’t be thrown out-dated or does the data support that?  I can’t find reliable information and just want what is best for him
Keith Law: That was an old hypothesis that I don’t think has held up under scrutiny.

James: Jackson Merrill looks better than expected at CF right now. Think he’ll stick there and ever be better than average with the glove?
Keith Law: Yes, he’s a good enough athlete and runner and smart enough kid that he could end up above-average out there. I’ve been pleasantly surprised how quickly he seems to have taken to it.

JR: Any thoughts on current state of college athletics, with unlimited transfers and unregulated NIL money? Has the impact hit college baseball yet? College Basketball/Football players are essentially one year free agents now, lol. On a macrolevel it’s great for the players, on a microlevel, it’s tough to be a fan of school (especially a mid-major school like mine) when the rosters practically turn over every year.
Keith Law: Yes, we see a ton of transfers, especially for players’ draft years, and I say hell yeah. The NCAA exploited players for decades. It’s about time that the players regain some control here.

Jake: SSS and all, but have you heard/seen anything about Marco Luciano changing his approach? A 19% walks rate and a .069 ISO don’t look like the Marco we’ve seen in the past.
Keith Law: tiny sample and it’s the PCL with the ABS half the time.

Jake: A few years ago the Braves got Strider in the 4th round. How did he last that long, especially in what seems like a weakish draft. Any similar hi ceiling, low floor guys this year?
Keith Law: That’s a bit revisionist. Strider blew out and missed 2019, then threw 12 innings in 2020 before the season ended. He was barely seen. As for similar guys … honestly, if I thought there was a Strider type in this draft I’d have had him on the rankings today in the top 20.

Trav: In the limited time I’ve watched Luciano play short, he’s looked awfully… not great. It was surprising how much the Giants publicly positioned him as their plan there before the season. How long can that possibly go on?
Keith Law: The sooner they move him, the better for his development.

Ryan: Druw Jones has struck out 23 times in 40 PAs this year – is he cooked?
Keith Law: 5 Ks two games ago, too. I’m very concerned – maybe the shoulder is still messed up, maybe he’s pressing, but I don’t think you could find anyone who thought he’d struggle like this in low A. I’d consider getting him out of there when the rookie leagues start up on May 4th. Let him go back to the complex, hope he rakes against worse competition, and get him the time with your coaches at the facility. But yeah, this is terrifying.

John: If a team thinks that the 2025 draft is better than this one, would they consider intentionally not signing a pick to get a comp pick in 2025?  Pick 31 in 2025 > pick 30 in 2024?  Too risky?
Keith Law: I get this question almost every year, and my answer is always the same: Absolutely not. It’s the worst idea imaginable, not least because you just increase the chance that someone else is making that pick next year instead of you.

Jackie: Say something positive about the Rockies.  Anything.
Keith Law: Sterlin Thompson can really hit.

Chris P: Who are some of the bigger helium guys so far that are shooting up draft lists?
Keith Law: I’d look at the top 50 today but Lindsey is probably the biggest such name. Tyson Lewis too.

JJ: Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel, Roman Anthony — which one’s the star, which one’s OK, and which one’s the bust?
Keith Law: I think Mayer and Anthony are stars and Teel is a solid regular.

RoyalBlue: Is Salvy Perez a HOFer?
Keith Law: No.

KMac: 100+ velo is looking more like a curse than a gift. Can you see FOs shying away from 80 grade fastballs in the draft (possibly accepting 6’6”+ relievers)? Or potentially avoiding extensions for this group of talent?
Keith Law: I think teams will start valuing very hard throwing teenagers differently.

Section 34: Seriously, Kjerstad over O’Hearn (1.044 OPS) or Mountcastle (.867 OPS)? Why would a team bench an MLB player who’s performing. We’re not talking about Austin Hays or Ramon Urias.
Keith Law: Could do it for those guys too. Do you think ROH is a 1000 OPS guy (ignoring how much OPS sucks as a stat)? I don’t.

CVD: When a guy like James Wood is dominating AAA at 21 yrs old, and hitting lefties as well, playing good defense, etc- what else does he have to do to get called up?   Just keep doing it for another month?
Keith Law: It’s two weeks. You have to read the calendar.

Kris: Noah Schultz, the next Ryan Anderson or someone that can fill a 4/5 SP role.
Keith Law: If healthy, a high-end starter. High injury risk.

Mike: Going to a game in Charlotte this weekend. Any good places to eat there that you like?
Keith Law: Amelie’s for breakfast/lunch/pastries. Inizio pizza. Customshop for fine dining. I rarely stay in Charlotte when I’m down that way – I fly in there a lot but then drive somewhere else.

Chip: Gun to your head, odds the A’s build a ballpark in Vegas and actually move there?
Keith Law: 25%.

Ernest: I stopped following sports for 10 years and have gotten back into it this year and noticed a pitch called the sweeper. Is this a new pitch or did the slider go through a rebranding?
Keith Law: It’s a variation of a slider. And it doesn’t sweep, which is why I think the name is stupid. My stepdaughters agree that the Yankees’ name for it, the whirlybird, is a much better choice.

Danny: Does 50% strikeout rate in only 50 PA show Roderick Arias is not ready for full season ball?
Keith Law: Not in ~ten games.

Jake: Although he seems cooked now, how do you scout a soft thrower like Kyle Hendricks who has had a remarkable career for a guy out of Dartmouth that barely touched 90 at his peak?
Keith Law: I find those guys incredibly difficult to identify – most guys with that stuff won’t even be big-league starters, or maybe just 5th starters. Did anyone foresee Hendricks having this kind of elite command? The Rangers didn’t. I honestly don’t think the Cubs did either.

Danny: You were on Corbin Caroll during his draft year- how does he compare to Caldwell? Caldwell is even smaller right?
Keith Law: Caldwell is smaller and not as strong. Carroll had more power at teh same age.

Ben: Keith – do you celebrate Thanksgiving?
Keith Law: How does one “celebrate” Thanksgiving? Do I cook a meal and eat it? Yes. I do that a lot of days.

Kris: Salas over Caminero? How close is that one?
Keith Law: It’s not that close.

Heather: Why does the media treat Robert Kennedy as anything other than a crackpot?  If you actually remember his dad, you’re almost in your 70s.  The vast majority of voters in this country weren’t around for the Kennedy Dynasty.  Even Teddy died 15 years ago.  Robert Jr. isn’t Yogi Berra; he’s Dale.
Keith Law: The mainstream media is beshitting itself in this election cycle. It’s embarrassment after embarrassment.

Greg: Any early indications on who the cardinals are looking at for pick 7?
Keith Law: Way too soon.

Dan: Do you think a version of Whitey Ball could work today? As a St. Louis kid it was so much fun watching those sliding pits waiting for someone to run.
Keith Law: No, it wouldn’t generate enough runs.

Rob: Do you see Jacob Berry as anything but a bust at this point
Keith Law: I think he’s a bust. What a bad pick that was.

HH: You say trans people are a “non issue” but what have they ever done to prevent foul balls from hitting spectators?;
Keith Law: Fair point!

Mario: In regards to the commenters question about college programs, coaches and universities are free to invest in creating programs where players feel valued, cared for, and want to stay. There’s no rules against it, as it turns out.
Keith Law: Yep. You don’t see a lot of guys transfer out of LSU or Wake Forest.

Patrick: With the time you will spend in Chicago–or really, any of your ‘frequent’ travel spots, do you try to work in an Alinea-type visit?
Keith Law: Those long tasting-menu places aren’t really my cup of tea. I can’t speak to Alinea’s food specifically but I don’t think they’re worth the time or expense.

Ridley: Have you had a chance to check out Polyphia, and, if so, what do ya think? They were originally tagged as “progressive metal,” although “every genre at once” is a better descriptor for the last two albums.
Keith Law: I haven’t but that sounds interesting.

RoyalBlue: Agree on OPS. What’s your go to metric to measure offensive production?
Keith Law: In the majors I prefer to look at wRC+. For prospects I’m less interested in total production than in how they’re getting there.

The Second of the Two Jakes: I’m pretty sure Whitey wouldn’t play Whitey-ball in today’s environment. He built his approach for the low HR context of his day.
Keith Law: I’m not sure. I know he tried to replicate a lot of that with the Angels when HR were exploding. The game had passed him by at that point.
Keith Law: OK, I need to wrap this up a few minutes early today but wanted to get one of these on the books with the draft rankings today. Thanks as always for reading – and to those of you who watched our show on Stadium on Monday. I don’t know if you can watch archived episodes but I’ll ask this week when I’m there. It’s live at 2 pm ET on the Stadium app if you have the time. Stay safe!

My ranking of the top 30 prospects for this year’s MLB draft is now up for subscribers to The Athletic.

Keith Law: A little bit better than I used to be. Klawchat.

Bob Pollard: Do you think the Giants will have Harrison on an innings limit, or does that not even matter since barely any starter pitches even 180 innings anymore?
Keith Law: My guess is it will happen organically – he’s not likely to work very deep into games anyway because he’ll run some higher pitch counts with a lot of strikeouts and walks.

John: Keith, if you were Cleveland, as the top of the draft looks right now. Would you take the one of the top 3-5 players who was willing to sign for the least amount or do you think there is enough of a talent difference to set your sights on one guy.
Keith Law: I would probably shop a deal to 2-3 players, but you still want to figure out who the #1 guy is and maybe you offer him a deal for more than your #2 guy. I don’t think this is the year you go full slot at 1.

Eric: Have you read any Dan Jones history books? I’m reading “Powers and Thrones” about the middle ages, and it is absolutely fantastic. Makes reading about what could be VERY dense subject matter very approachable.
Keith Law: the Da Vinci Code guy? I have not. I read that and woof, I was out.

Eric: Eury Perez: Future Cy Young winner?
Keith Law: Has the potential, but hasn’t had the track record of durability yet.

Marcos: Love your work Keith, you’re the primary reason that I maintain an Athletic subscription. Quick question about James Wood, I know that he has a decent amount to prove with his respect to making contact consistently at the higher levels of the sport, but to my eye, he looks like one of the 10 most gifted players in baseball at any level. Do you view him as having a De La Cruz type of ceiling, and if he puts it all together, do you think he’s an MVP caliber type at the next level?
Keith Law: The power-speed-defense are all elite, but I think he’s going to swing and miss enough to keep him from becoming an MVP-type player. He’s got a huge strike zone and struggled last year with fastballs up in the zone and sliders down in or below it. It’s hard for guys that big to cover that much territory – Judge is the great exception.

Paul: Brady House looks about as toolsy as they get, do you see All star level upside with him?
Keith Law: I disagree – he’s not very toolsy at all. He’s not a runner, he’s not a great defender, and he’s not all twitched up. What he does do, however, is hit the ball extremely hard, and I believe he has more feel to hit than he’s gotten credit for.

Mike: AJ puk apparently stretching out as a starter, think he can be a solid mid rotation SP?
Keith Law: I do not. He hasn’t stayed healthy for a full year since college.

Mike: Think Jared Jones breaks camp w pitt? Also, are you concerned with how hard he throws despite not being a massive guy?
Keith Law: I don’t, and I’m not.

Dr. Bob: Excited to see that a Caldwell made the list. Maybe I can follow his career and find out if we’re related. What’s that? He’s only 5-5 1/2? Never mind. We’re not related to the Arkansas Caldwells anyway.
Keith Law: Pretty funny that he’s listed at 5’8″. He was measured at East Coast Pro last year. Just own it, Slade. Join us on team Fun-Sized.

Nick: If Justin Crawford lifts the ball more this year and shows plus raw power, is he in the top-5 prospect conversation next year?
Keith Law: I’d rather say he’ll be much higher next year if he does that.
Keith Law: Top 5 depends on what happens with a whole host of other players, too.

Wallace: Robert Hassell physically looks stronger during this camp, do you maintain any hope that he can become an above average regular?
Keith Law: I’m more concerned with his contact quality and his swing decisions than how he looks.

Jon: Cleveland’s failed attempts to develop a young RH bat date back to the Matt LaPorta trade.  In a draft that could be underwhelming, would it make sense to skew towards Condon given his profile and potential for a quick rise to Cleveland?
Keith Law: No, I’d just go for the best player on the best deal. I happen to think Condon’s the best player, but I wouldn’t say Cleveland should like him more for any specific reason … that’s how you end up passing on a better player.

Jack: Jeff Passan had some incredibly glowing things to say about Cole Ragans and his Spring Training performance, noting an evaluator likened him to a “left handed DeGrom” – is there real #1 starter potential with him?
Keith Law: I would have said #2, but I’m a big fan – I had him on my breakouts article last March. He’s legit.

Eric: My 5 year old started t-ball this season. He loves playing, and I want him to get more interested in baseball as a whole. What would be a good entry point, other than YouTube highlight videos?
Keith Law: Isn’t the best answer just watching more games? Maybe going to some minor league or college games near you, or watching archived games on MLB.tv, something to accommodate what I assume is an early bed time. I think baseball is a sport you learn to like through experience – one great play or moment probably doesn’t convert a kid.

Jeff: How much of a make or break year do you think this is for Henry Davis with the chance to be the everyday catcher?  The RF experiment last year was not great and some scouts wondered if he could stick behind the plate.  If he struggles is his bat good enough to be an everyday DH?
Keith Law: I think he can catch, but I also think he has to show it this year. He’s going to get a long look. Right field wasn’t good, unsurprising since he had maybe 20 games of experience there total, but his value in the draft was that he was a catcher who could hit (and really, really throw).

Andy: This looks to be one of the worst drafts in recent history for true superstar players. Is the depth beyond the top 30 (or 100) good or is this just a year where you draft for a decent floor and look for ceiling elsewhere?
Keith Law: Nah, it’s just not a great draft. The HS position player crop is way down from last year and below the norm, so I expect a lot of good-not-great college players will get pushed into the first.

Turner: Thank you for the chat! I’m no longer on twitter or X and that’s how I used to know about your chats. I just checked your blog on a whim for today. What is the best way to find out about your chats in the future? Understanding that you don’t schedule them far in advance.
Keith Law: I post them on Threads, BlueSky, Spoutible, and Facebook. I’ll see about a more regular schedule once I have a better sense of my travel for the spring.

Van: For the 2024 draft, is a top tier starting to come together? Who’s pulling ahead so far?
Keith Law: I just posted a ranking this morning.

Andy: How many times have you added a K to Mike Sirota’s name?
Keith Law: It’s when I say it. I want to call him Sirotka or just si-RAHT-uh.

Tyler: Hi Keith, 2 unrelated questions for you: 1) Would you say this is a good year to the number 2 pick? Asking as a Reds fan. And, 2) Do you believe that developing plate discipline is something that can be done? Just curious because I’ve seen conflicting opinions on this but limited data.
Keith Law: It’s not a good year to pick high. I think some players can develop plate discipline, like we’ve seen with Austin Riley or Adolis Garcia, but for the majority of players it’s a lot of wishful thinking.
Keith Law: You always have to try if you’re in player development. It’s just much easier said than done. Oh, stop swinging at sliders out of the zone? Well, sure, everyone is supposed to know that, but few can execute.

JG: All else being equal, if it comes down to extending either Bregman or Tucker, the easy answer is Tucker, isn’t it?
Keith Law: Yes, because of age.

Cooperberg: Can spring training breakouts – like what James Wood has done so far – mean anything or is it all wait and see until the real games start?
Keith Law: Absolutely nothing. Pitchers are working on stuff. Managers aren’t trying to win. You might face a big leaguer in the first at bat and an A-ball guy in the third at bat.

Eric: Why is the name Jackson such a precursor to being a top prospect nowadays?
Keith Law: Because it was a very popular boy’s name in the mid-2000s.

Thomas: Who do you have more confidence in moving forward – Matt Manning or Casey Mize?
Keith Law: Mize.

Jerry: Hey huge fan been following since ESPN. Now subscribe with the athletic because of you. But getting to prospects. First question is Vanderbilt baseball any good this year? Don’t see anyone on your top 30 which is weird for them or they just underclass guys and will be on board next year?
Keith Law: They might be a good college team, but they do not have much in the way of 2024 draft prospects. Vastine might be a third rounder, Holton the same if he’s healthy, although he’s off to a rough start.

RAWagman: Hey Keith. Thank for the chats, as always. Which teams’ offseason maneuvering was most befuddling to you? I’m a Blue Jays fan, and theirs was equal parts disappointing and head-scratching, but which teams, if any, were even more so?
Keith Law: I didn’t get the Reds adding Jeimer Candelario rather than starting pitching depth. I’m also not sure what the Angels’ direction is – it feels like they’re no better off than they were last year.

Andy: At what age do you (as a scout) start hearing about high schoolers? Obviously, if it’s a Bryce Harper type, you hear about it earlier, but do you hear much about the top sophomores (2026 draft available) now? College players we can see as first years and follow them and see their adjustments, does the same thing happen with high schoolers in the scouting world?
Keith Law: I usually don’t hear much about HS players until they’re juniors.

Heather: The Red Sox spent decades as a big market team.  Now that they’ve decided to be Tampa North instead, ownership is trying to sell the fans on, “Just wait until Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, and Kyle Teel are on the team in 2026 … then we’ll spend!”  Are they really that good?   We’re just going to ignore for the moment that none of them is a pitcher.
Keith Law: I think those three are all very good to elite prospects. I think your notes about their lack of pitching in the system and ownership’s sudden decision to treat the team like a cash cow are both well-considered.

Colton: I found your newsletter on trans stuff in Texas to be lacking. You say that gender ideology is harmless, despite the fact that the elimination of female-only spaces creates a danger to females in prison, for instance. Children are being sterilized (pause for a moment and think of the implications of the phrase “puberty blocker”). The very concept of a “gender identity” is an extreme belief in and of itself.
Keith Law: So I deleted the last half of this message because it descended into further anti-trans bullshit. You don’t even understand the difference between sterilization, a permanent procedure with a long history in this country of use against people suspected of mental illness and racial minorities, and puberty blockers, safe and temporary medical treatment that comes under the care of a doctor. You also are at least 70 years behind on gender identity, and that’s just in the west, as gender identity has history going back thousands of years in non-white European cultures. You’re barely even masking your hatred of trans people behind inaccurate rhetoric.

CVD: With the changes to service time- should James Wood make the opening day roster to increase chances of ROY liklihood?  Or is he not ready so keep him down for another year of control?
Keith Law: oh HELL no. He was in double A for less than half of 2023 and struggled with contact there.

Gordon: Hi Keith! If you could cover any other sport what would it be and why?
Keith Law: No.

Jakey: Why so few HS prospects? Is it the Covid effect or something else?
Keith Law: Just a down year. It’s just random.

Jackie: Who’s winning the ROY awards?
Keith Law: I’ll do predictions the last week of ST. Depends a lot on who makes OD rosters.

SJ: It looks like Quinn Priester’s velocity is up a few MPH this spring. What’s your outlook on him at this point?
Keith Law: I don’t buy those spikes until the pitchers are working a little deeper into games. Higher velo in 1-2 innings may translate into higher velo in 5-7, but it might be a guy airing it out to win a roster spot.

Aaron G: Jackson Holliday – June/July callup? Or full season at AAA?
Keith Law: If they have a spot, he’ll be up in June or July. I could also see them having no room for him.
Keith Law: Well, I guess that’s not quite right – he’s going to be better than almost anyone he replaces except Gunnar. But they may not dislodge an incumbent unless Holliday is laying waste to AAA pitching.

Tracy: Here in Chicago we have an owner who’s got his hand out (again!) looking for taxpayer dollars to fund a new stadium, even though he already has one. Jerry Reinsdorf has single-handedly ruined the White Sox franchise, refusing to spend enough money to elevate the organization so it can be consistently competitive in the 21st century. Fans here are mostly outraged by his brazenness. This is also happening elsewhere. Owners are once again asking for money that solely benefits them. Do you think there is a growing national outrage from fans and taxpayers, saying they will no longer support publicly-financed stadiums?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, because these proposals keep passing and legislators who support them keep their jobs. It’s not even party-specific. The entire Tennessee legislature should be dissolved for the money they keep handing sports teams (and MLB will come with its hand out soon enough).

Steve: I see your first question was from Bob Pollard. He’ll probably have 20 more ready by the time this chat is done.
Keith Law: I understood that reference.

Jakey: James Outman has become a good player on a top team. I know “don’t scout the stat line” but in HS he barely hit .300 and in college he was at .249. How does a scout see a player like that and know they have a chance to be a big league regular?
Keith Law: Big bet on athleticism + that focusing just on baseball would help him. Great move for a later pick.

Kyle: Hi Keith – Thanks for the update this AM.. Twins are interesting with picks at 21 and 33. With the lack of prep talent, could you see them buying 2 college arms with those picks (Santucci, Yesavage, Brecht, etc) and then spreading $ on prep later?
Keith Law: Why not?

Eric: Re: Dan Jones – no, not da vinci. That’s Dan Brown. Dan Jones is a legit historian
Keith Law: You’re right, brain cramp here. Obviously I have never heard of Dan Jones, although that may be my failure.

Jakey: How long do you think the Morel at 3b experiment lasts?
Keith Law: He’s really not good there. I imagine less than half a season.

Mike: I just dont see how brody brect can be so high when he walks so many.
Keith Law: It’s primarily a bet that he’s so athletic and so inexperienced (having played football as well) that he’ll continue to improve his control and command with more reps and pro coaching. His delivery is fine – it’s certainly not why he walked so many guys last year – but he throws so hard and his arm is so fast that he hasn’t really learned to manage it. If he walks nearly 20% of batters again this year, he’ll drop to the end of the first round or out of it. He has walked fewer guys the last two outings, and I think being a full-time baseball player is going to yield some short-term improvement.

Zirinsky: Hi Keith. Obviously pitching metrics/labs are much more advanced than hitting metrics at this stage (at least in terms of allowing players to “improve”). Is this simply due to how different pitching/hitting are OR is there some potential advancement coming that will allow hitters to catch up in this space?
Keith Law: I think many hitting labs/coaches focus too much on single metrics of power or contact quality, like EV or launch angle, when there’s often a more fundamental problem at play like pitch or ball/strike recognition. There are certainly teams and coaches that work on the latter, but there seems to be more approaches at work here than there are for pitchers.

Kevin: Thoughts on the Bello extension? Upside of a potential #2?
Keith Law: Love him and yes.

Ryan: You’re a fan of power metal, right? Have you ever heard of Unleash the Archers? Big fan. The singer’s voice is incredible.
Keith Law: I would say yes … old-school thrash will never get old for me. I was listening to some Power Trip the other day and I love the music, although the late singer’s voice was too abrasive for me and too forward in the mix. (I can deal with some pretty abrasive vocals when they’re mixed lower, behind the guitars.)

AK: Hey Keith, just picked up Wingspan and have no idea wtf is going on. Any good advice/tutorials out there to get started?
Ollie: Ryne Nelson has looked really good so far this spring. I’m guessing he’ll win the fifth starter job. Any thoughts on his performance or improved slider?
Keith Law: Spring performance doesn’t mean anything and if his slider is different this year I haven’t seen/heard it. I’ve been a big Nelson fan, though.

Zirinsky: Keith: When is it useful to start looking at results from veteran pitchers in ST? And obviously it’s possible that the answer is “never.”
Keith Law: I just don’t, unless, say, a guy suddenly is walking batters at twice the rate, or has lost his fastball. Something really drastic.

PhillyJake: I’m finally reading Smart Baseball.  Just finished the OPS chapter last night.  I was blown away by the difference of a .400 OBP and .400SLG guy vs. a .300 OPB and .500SLG guy. Thanks for the enlightenment!
Keith Law: Glad you enjoyed it!

Michael: Thanks for doing these chats, Keith! I’ll be in Seattle for the first time in a few weeks. Any restaurant recommendations?
Keith Law: Yes, I was there in July for the Futures Game. https://meadowparty.com/blog/2023/07/15/seattle-eats/

Chris: Have you seen “Anatomy of a Fall” yet? Curious what you think.
Keith Law: Not yet. I think we’re going to end up seeing just 7/10 BP nominees before the Oscars, although eventually we’ll get them all.

JR: At what point are Snell and Montgomery at risk for missing start of the season if they haven’t signed? Or are we there already? Seems like an offensive player could be ready in a few days, but a pitcher would need more reps against live batting to get ready.
Keith Law: Yes. I’d say we’re at that point now.

Jacob: Of the two Cal guys, Rodney Green Jr. and Caleb Lomavita, who would you draft first and who do you think gets drafted first?
Keith Law: Only one is on the top 30 today…

Gregory: Telling little boys that they might actually be girls trapped in a boy’s body is, definitionally, grooming.
Keith Law: This is such a fundamental misunderstanding that it makes me despair of the state of our education system. Nobody is “telling” anyone they’re trans, or queer, or anything else. That’s not how any of this works!

James: It seems like Chourio is going to make the opening day roster. What would be your predicted slash line for him over 500-600 PA?
Keith Law: .270/.310/.425. Kind of seeing a slow build, maybe a rough start in April/May, some adjustment period, and a strong finish.

Mike: None prospect question….but the Twins sure are betting a lot on a healthy Paddock and Descalfini after losing Gray. Is this really going to work (in the post season if they get there)?
Keith Law: Paddack has never thrown 150 innings in a professional season, and he’s only made 20 starts in a season twice (2019 and 2021). Banking on him as a starter is irrational.

Eric: the founding fathers would be amazed that two near-octogenarians would be running for president one day. but hey, let’s go crazy
Keith Law: I mean, they would not recognize much of anything in our society, from guns to racial justice to who’s allowed to vote and own land and so on. Also, imagine handing one of them a smartphone.

Jakey: I found your newsletter on trans stuff in TX to be spot on
Keith Law: Thank you. Leave trans kids alone.

JR: Strong agree with your Killers of the Flower Moon movie review. Loved the book, almost passed on the movie when I saw it was 3.5 hours. Gave it a try and stopped after a slow 30 minutes.

I miss the days when all major movies were released in theaters and had to be a tight 90-120 minutes, with only the occasional special film getting 2.5+ hours. Netflix, Apple, etc., appear to not reign in directors as much and give them blank checks and limited oversight. So the movies ramble on forever.
Keith Law: I’m fine with 3-hour movies if they earn it. Scorsese needed to trim some of the first two hours, in particular. The scene where Mollie’s mother dies stands out as one that, while beautiful on its own, does not progress the story or the development of any core character.

Eric: James Wood >>>>>>>> James Woods
Keith Law: Low bar, but yes.

Luis: Hi Keith, not a question but rather just to thank you for the content and send my condolences for the loss of your  cat to you and your family
Keith Law: Thank you. We actually just adopted two rescued kittens yesterday – neither my wife nor I has been cat-less in over a decade, and with so many kittens needing homes we decided not to wait. Pictures coming soon!

Caleb: Think we can expect a ‘leap’ from Jordan Walker in 2024, or am I thinking a year too early?
Keith Law: He might be on the breakouts list this year.

David: You planning any trips to Winston-Salem this year to check out Wake Forest players before the draft?
Keith Law: At least once, I think.

Robert: Have you ever had to put a pet down? We just put our 15 year old dog down, and my family is asking for another dog, but I don’t see if/when I’ll ever be ready for another. He was such a good boy.
Keith Law: I just did that last month, and wrote about it in the newsletter. I’ve had to put four cats down myself – as in, I was the one at the vet making the call. It never, ever gets easier.

Ken from Entertainment 720: Hey Keith.  My wife is a die hard O’s fan but isnt a fan of Westburg.  I happen to be a fan of his.  If i say he from ages 26-32 can be a .275 hitter with a 785-815 OPS with 40 doubles and 15-20 home runs.  How wrong am I?  He feels like Robby Thompson 2.0 (old Giant’s second baseman).
Keith Law: Yeah I’m with you. I see a regular for someone.

Andy: We all know the playoffs are a crapshoot, but the last time a Central team made the World Series, it was Cubs-Cleveland. It isn’t like those teams are making huge splashed this winter either. People always complain about “East Coast bias”, but at the early evening timeslot, there just isn’t anything appealing about most of the Central teams.
Keith Law: The two Centrals are by far the lowest-populated divisions, right? Chicago’s the only large city in either Central, and one of the Chicago teams acts like they play in Peoria.

Eric: Nick Senzel had a decent rookie yr, and of course a 1st round pedigree, but hasnt really hit since then.   Any chance he can be a late bloomer?
Keith Law: Never give up on a guy with that background but he’s had a lot of injury issues & more.

Robert: All the people who love to say things like Babe Ruth is the best ever, I’d love to see Babe Ruth’s reaction if Shohei time traveled to play in the majors with him
Keith Law: He’d probably respond with a racial slur.

Dan: Who will you have your eyes on on the Cape this summer?
Keith Law: I have absolutely no idea who’s playing on the Cape this summer.

Robert: that anti-trans guy sounds like such a … snowflake
Keith Law: They’re incredibly soft.

Dee: Another hammy for Madrigal. He’s just never going to play 140 games right?
Keith Law: I think he could play 140 games at some point but won’t hit enough for it to matter. Where are all the White Sox fans mad I left him off my top 100?

Todd Boss: Opening Quote: “Live Wire,” by Motley Crue?
Keith Law: Still their best song.

Dave: Keith, with Bellinger and Busch getting the lion share of work at CF and 1b respectively, should a young Armstrong get more seasoning and force the issue down the road if he rakes in AAA, or is his defense alone accretive to afford a shuffling of those three between CF/1B/DH (include Morel and 3B in that rotation ?)
Keith Law: I’d start PCA in AAA with the mandate to maximize contact and get out of this pull orientation. There will be opportunities for him at some point this year, even if it’s just like you suggest, with Busch moving to DH and Belli at 1b.

Ernesto: Do you feel like we are witnessing the beginning of the end of American democracy? It sure feels like it with extremists getting elected and the supreme courts playing calvinball with their decisions. The fact an insurrectionist is even allowed to run for office says a lot. Unless there is a total wipeout this election cycle I dont like our chances.
Keith Law: I do. I am especially dismayed at how much of the media, including mainstream, national media outlets, seem unaware that they are bothsidesing a contest that is very much uneven in its import and consequences.

Jason: Brooks Lee has looked great in spring training. any chance he makes the opening day roster? move Julien to 1st and slide Lee to 2nd?
Keith Law: Also would be very foolish.

Dr. Bob: RE: Owners asking for handouts. The only time I remember the fans helping sinking potential deals for a team were the mid-1990s Rams. Georgia had run that team so far into the ground that when the move to STL was announced, most fan reaction was, “Can we help you pack?” Even thought they’re bad deals for the taxpayers, fans always support them.
Keith Law: Fans are vocal. Opponents aren’t. If you live in a state or county about to subsidize some billionaire’s playground, you need to make your voice heard.

Jason: Best placement of the flag in Stratego?  “Traditionally” people surround with bombs near the back row.   Any thought to a random spot?
Keith Law: I actually haven’t played it in ~35 years.

Guest: Is JD Davis a reasonable upgrade for the Cubs?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Todd Boss: A blogger in the Washington Nationals blogosphere made a pretty cogent argument that the Nationals should be treated as a small market team, just as the Baltimore Orioles are, based on MASN RSN revenue. They received less RSN money than Seattle, Arizona, and Pittsburgh, but those teams all get comp draft picks for being “small markets.”  This also cost them the #1 pick this year, when they had to forfeit their lottery win.  Is this fair?
Keith Law: It’s a reasonable argument but I don’t know what their other revenues look like.

Dee: Sharing The Gender Dysphoria Bible, seems we have some folks who need to read it.

https://genderdysphoria.fyi/en
Keith Law: Bookmarking, thank you.

Tom: That Anthony Rendon doesn’t consider his job to be the most important thing in his life doesn’t concern me. I presume most people feel this way about their jobs and heck, I imagine more than a few pro athletes aren’t actually playing their favorite sport. What concerns me is Rendon isn’t particularly good at his job and hasn’t been for a while, and it’s yet another example of why the Angels are in this endless abyss they show few signs of climbing out any time soon.
Keith Law: Right. You don’t have to love your job to be good at it! But you do have to put in the work.

Justin: What continues to boggle the mind is how people can look at an incredibly vulnerable population (1 in 4 attempt suicide) and decide, “Yes, I want to make life harder for them.” No real question, it’s just infuriating.
Keith Law: It is infuriating, and makes me particularly disdainful of the people and the niche groups promulgating this mentality.

Chris: Keith, have you had a chance to play The Fox Experiment from Elizabeth Hargrave yet? My family didn’t enjoy it quite as much as Wingspan, but found quite a bit of humor in being able to name the foxes.
Keith Law: It’s on the shelf but still unplayed.

Matt: How does Altuve have so much power? I get why Judge has power. He’s huge. But Altuve is a Smurf.
Keith Law: Height don’t measure power, either. Altuve is shorter than I am, but he’s about twice as wide.

Queer: Trans adults would like to be left alone too
Keith Law: Yes to this too. The assault on trans rights is both inhumane and a threat to everyone’s rights.

Salty: Does Jared Jones give off any Sixto vibes?  Body seems similar, stuff maybe a little different, and I’ve never seen him pitch.  Is he a viable SP or more back-end/relief with two strong pitches currently.
Keith Law: Stronger/better athlete. I will say Sixto blowing out as badly as he did was a surprise, because I have seen very few guys throw 100 that easily.

Matt: If you were Jed Hoyer how would you be approaching this season?
Keith Law: Gleefully?

Matt: Have you ever written or talked publicly about your divorce? And or the role mental health played? As somone with a spouse with mental health challenges i’d love to learn from others experience.
Keith Law: No, because I don’t feel like it’s really my story to tell – there’s another person involved, and her side would differ from mine, while even telling my side would likely compromise her privacy.

Jason: Found it interesting that Angel Martinez was left of your Guardians top 20 .. Reports of a swing adjustment and now hes racking in ST.. Any thoughts ??
Keith Law: He was #11.

Rado: Have you had a chance to experience The Sphere? I’ve never been the biggest U2 fan but i can tell you….its worth it.
Keith Law: Having seen it on TV, I don’t think I’d like it. At best it’s sensory overload. At worst it might give me a migraine.
Keith Law: (cue Gang of Four)

JT: Last year, Salas was a huge story during ST on The Athletic. Is there anyone showcasing themselves similarly this year?
Keith Law: Minor leaguers haven’t started games yet.

Frank: Did Scott Boras overplay his hand this offseason?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. We’ll see what Montgomery ends up with, but Boras’s history with taking free agents deep into the offseason (and beyond) has usually vindicated him. And Bellinger’s free agent case was as odd as it gets – guy gets non-tendered one winter, is an MVP candidate a year later. Who did that last – Jose Bautista?

Jason: Did you see the “We are the World” documentary, and if so what did you think?
Keith Law: It was excellent. So much I didn’t know, even though I was alive and old enough to be aware of much of it, and also such a blast to see who was considered enough of a star to be included. Plus the odd interplay of, say, Bob Dylan and Cyndi Lauper hanging out.

Brett: Have Julien and Wallner shown enough that they can be trusted as regulars?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. Both look like platoon players, especially Wallner.

Dave: Have you ever considered selling t-shirts that say, “I Hate Your Favorite Team” – if not for personal profit (nothing wrong with that, btw) then for your favorite charity?
Keith Law: Not a bad idea. I’ll get on this.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thanks for reading and for the support. It’s on all of us to stand up for the rights of our least powerful or most vulnerable neighbors. Stay safe.

Starting at 1:30 pm ET. Subscribers to The Athletic can read my entire prospect rankings package, including the top 100 prospects, the ten guys who just missed, my farm system rankings, and my top 20 prospects & org reports for all 30 teams.

Keith Law: I started drifting to a different place. Klawchat.

Ben (MN): I’m traveling for work but have one free day in San Diego. Any food recommendations?
Keith Law: The Crack Shack, Juniper & Ivy, Bird Rock Coffee, The Mission.

Brett: FYI, Petty up to 99 in Reds camp today.  Good early sign but increases injury risk as well I suppose…the baseball gods giveth and taketh.  Thank you for all you do especially with the mental health side of things.  It’s so important to make people feel like it is OK to get help, that nothing is wrong with them.  I am in healthcare and have been getting mental health services since Covid in part because of your example.  My life is much better for it, thank you…
Keith Law: He just hasn’t held that velocity as a starter for two years now. I did have delivery concerns with him in HS when he was 97-100 or so, but he toned that down last year. And you’re welcome – I probably should be talking about that stuff even more.

Joe: The Dodgers gave up two players with some value for Trey Sweeney, so I was surprised that he didn’t get a mention in the LA write up.  Do you think they did the trade because they needed the roster spots, or do they see something you don’t?
Keith Law: Maybe they see something they can do with the swing, but I just don’t think he’s anything but an up-and-down guy. He would have made a lot of top 20s, just not the Dodgers’.

SamStead: Hi Keith! Do you think Brett Baty settles into an above-average regular at 3B? What’s his outlook? Thanks!
Keith Law: The bat will be. The glove is debatable but I would let him stay there for now.

Mike: What do you make of the Brewers trying Frelick out at 2B/3B? Is it a move because of a crowded OF or more of an indictment of their options in the infield?
Keith Law: Chourio’s got the contract, Mitchell can play center, Black could play center if you can live with the arm … I think this is about getting Frelick into the lineup.

Guest: Chances Jett Williams gets called up before the AS break? I think the kid is legit.
Keith Law: I’d say zero. He’s barely 20 and has 6 games above A-ball. Also they have this guy at shortstop, you may have heard of him…

Chris: Keith, you wrote that Wilyer Abreu might be a 4-WAR player if he sticks in Center. If he can’t handle Center and ends up in Right, what’s the equivalent of that? I assume that’s still a productive regular, just not a star?
Keith Law: Yep, spot on.

Richard: You rock Keith! Very much appreciate the effort you put into the prospect / org rankings…it’s the primary reason I have the Athletic each year.
Keith Law: Thank you! It’s exhausting but now it’s all on the site and I can turn the page to the draft.

Adam: Is Michael Harris better than you expected? If so what did you miss?
Keith Law: I don’t think so … I might have been light on the contact, as he’s not striking out as much as I’d feared given his mediocre pitch recognition.

Jason: when will the corporate welfare for stadiums end? now the dbacks want to hold phoenix hostage on a 26 year old stadium
Keith Law: When voters consistently tell these owners to fuck off – and tell their legislators the same – the corporate welfare will end. if your state rep/senator votes for one of these handouts, you vote against them.

Tom: I really enjoy your podcasts on the athletic! Are you doing more anytime soon?
Keith Law: Nothing imminent.

Preston: At what point will any of the Boras Four just tell him to get a deal done? I presume they are along for the ride but can’t imagine they would want to go too long, right?
Keith Law: They know the deal. Scott gets his guys paid in the end, but it can take a while. You choose him as your agent, you’re signing up for this.

Bobby B.: Thoughts on Puerto Rico? Obviously an older board game, but imo one of the greats
Keith Law: Agreed it’s one of the greats, looking forward to the revised edition some time this spring.

Troy: Was Robert Gasser anywhere near the Top 100?
Keith Law: He was not.

Morgan: Who are a few prospects you see shooting up the rankings for 2025?
Keith Law: For every team, I included a Sleeper prospect, who is someone not currently on the top 100 but who I predict will make the top 100 next offseason. I think I had 6-7 guys do that this year (and I promise I’m not juking the stats – I don’t put guys on the 100 just to make myself right!).

Garrett: I loved this line in your assessment of Elijah Green (while also being said this has to be said now): “We can’t draft and develop this type of player as an industry if MLB prevents teams from giving them the development challenges they need.”
Keith Law: People often ask what rule change I would make if I were Commissioner. It would be allowing teams to operate a short-season affiliate if they want to. I’m pretty confident 20+ teams would choose yes.
Keith Law: This chat is brought to you by Oreos. They didn’t sponsor it. I’m just eating Oreos right now.

Guest: So glad to have KLawchats back. Just passing along a note, that while you don’t write your lists for fantasy baseball, many of us subscribers do love to use them to advise our fantasy decisions. While I get the timing of releasing the lists post Super Bowl, many of us would get more value from them earlier prior to our early February drafts. Appreciate the work.
Keith Law: Thank you. That decision was made above my head.

Mike: Hi Klaw, tough 2023 for former Dbacks prospect Ryne Nelson. Do you think he can become a viable number 4ish starting pitcher still for them?
Keith Law: I do. Might give him a half year or more in long relief this year.

Alex: Have you seen the new Master and Margarita movie?  I haven’t yet, and the book has always struck me as kind of unfilmable.
Keith Law: A reader told me about it the other day but I haven’t seen anything about it otherwise, and I agree, it always seemed like it would lose way too much on the screen.

Holly: On the Nats’ writeup, no mention of Mason Denaburg.   Is he still a prospect at all?
Keith Law: He walked 49 guys in 36 innings in low A last year, mostly in relief. I imagine he’s a release candidate at this point.

Alex: Can’t say I was surprised by Atlanta’s ranking – as you said, they traded everybody. On the other hand, as an Atlanta fan, it seems to me that you’re *supposed* to trade your prospects to improve the major league roster. Are there any of Atlanta’s major moves that you would seriously question?
Keith Law: I think giving up Malloy for Joe Jimenez was an overpay. And I believe I said at the time that I wasn’t convinced Sean Murphy would be better than William Contreras, certainly not enough to justify trading everything they did. But overall, no, I think Anthopoulos has done an excellent job, including his big trades.

Tom: Can you give some detailed thoughts on the Red Sox royals Schreiber trade?
Keith Law: The David Sandlin prospect writeup is now in the Red Sox top 20. No-brainer trade for them.

RC: Two completely unrelated questions for you…
1) What level of panic would you have if you were Mike Elias regarding the rotation regarding Bradish and Means? Is it worth shelling out money for another starter or making another trade?
2) I’m considering a job offer in Newark, Delaware. How do you like living in the state? What would you recommend for food and activities for a second visit on home scouting?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t panic, but they still have more position players in AAA/majors than they can use and I would at least see what trading some combination of them – Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo, Westburg, etc. – might get back in a starter. More worried about Bradish.

As for Delaware, it’s great overall. Lots to do here, great little downtown in Wilmington with some fantastic restaurants (Bardea, Le Cavalier, La Fia, two food halls), two art-house cinemas, two venues for concerts and traveling theater, low cost of living for the mid-Atlantic. Public schools are underfunded, though, and there hasn’t been great appetite to remedy that. Check out Winterthur, Longwood Gardens (just over the line in PA), & the Nemours Estate.

Egan: What are you expectations for Brandon Barriera this year development wise? Future rotation arm?
Keith Law: Let’s see how the body looks. Had high upside in 2022, has supposedly shed most of the extra weight he put on last year, but when a guy lets himself go like that I want to see the commitment to his conditioning.

John Sterling: (on the Dominguez v Spencer Jones question) I know you avoid being influenced by other expert rankings, but I know you also do take in information from other analysts/experts. Help me understand why there seems to be some uncommon divergence about two high profile prospects in same org who both spent most of last summer in the Somerset Patriots outfield. Thanks.
Keith Law: I assume we’re valuing different things.

DH: Suppose Samuel Basallo were a solid average defensive 1B, and not a catcher. Where do you suppose he’d rank in top 100?
Keith Law: Middle, probably 40-60 range.

Adam D.: Obviously without naming names, have you ever found yourself gravitating away from a scouting source after too many reports that turned out to be mostly untrue?
Keith Law: Yes.

JW: Have contracts to pre-arb players started to turn in the direction that they aren’t actually good for teams? The news of the potential Alvarez extension got me thinking that the Mets would need to be getting so much value on the back end to give up the cheap early years. They way they are structured based on actual cash basically aligns with what these guys would be making anyway, so all the teams are actually getting is the ability to have the player for more prime years without having to commit to post prime years (the value of which we dont know yet), but the cost of that is giving up years where they are actually cheap (the value of which we do know). Am I over thinking this?
Keith Law: I don’t think the early year salaries in those deals are close to high enough to make these a negative for the teams. If they’re right, they’re getting like $30 million of production (or more) for $2 million.

Andrew: Anything in Elly’s rookie year that makes you concerned about him long-term? Is it all about contact with him?
Keith Law: Yes, primarily about contact. Could end up in CF rather than SS but I expect he’d be plus there.

Bobby: Who do you predict will win ROY in NL and AL?
Keith Law: I’ll do full predictions in late March when we see who’s actually getting the playing time. Just a stab right now, I’d say Caminero and Noelvi.

dallas: Do you believe there is a flaw in stockpiling middle infield prospects like the pirates and Cleveland have done over the years? It seems like (with PGH) especially all their minor leaguers have the same profile.
Keith Law: There’s no flaw in that specifically, but maybe there’s a flaw if they’re all 5’7″ and unlikely to stay at short?

Robert: Putting aside the economics of whether or not public financing of sports stadiums makes sense, what do you think of White Sox ownership asking the public for $1 billion to pay for a new stadium, when they are one of only two franchises who’ve never offered a $100M contract to a player?
Keith Law: I don’t see a connection between those two. The purpose of public subsidies for private enterprise is economic development, not helping the team win. The economic development doesn’t justify the subsidies, of course, but that’s a separate question.

DH: Did his first year performance decrease Volpe’s best-case ceiling for you?
Keith Law: No. He didn’t belong in the majors to start the year.

Pool: Who is the international prospect that will be stateside for the first time this season that you are most excited to get eyes on?
Keith Law: Felnin Celesten.

Morgan (NY): You buying into Stanton’s body transformation as a harbinger of athleticism and renewed success at the plate?
Keith Law: No, it’s a function of health, not conditioning.

James: It’s spring training. I’m in the worst shape of my life. Any thought as to why the Boras 4 hasn’t signed yet? Can the Cubs really go with PCA and Morel at 3B instead of Bellinger/Chapman and expect to contend?
Keith Law: Yes, they can expect to contend in that division. I have a feeling they end up re-signing Bellinger though.

James: Ever play Code Names? We’ve been playing it a lot lately, lots of fun.
Keith Law: Yes, solid party game. Not my favorite of the genre but I’ll always play it.

Marlins Fan: Marlins have a bunch of (very) young and raw 18/19 year old pitchers outside of Meyer/White like Juan De La Cruz, Walin Castillo, Karson Milbrandt, Julio Mendez, Lester Nin, Damelvi Tineo. Any of those that you like outside of De La Cruz who you ranked fairly high?
Keith Law: Milbrandt was up there too.

Guest: I assume Caleb Durbin and Tyler Hardman are nothing more than org players? The latter not even getting an NRI is a bad sign.
Keith Law: that’s how I view them.

Neal: The Phillies can’t possibly consider extending Bryce Harper can they?
Keith Law: I hope not, he’s tall enough as it is.

kevin: surprised to see Jake Gelof blurb about him just being a corner OF. Is 3B not possible any longer? thanks!
Keith Law: Don’t see him every sticking at third.

Bobby: You are higher on Cam Collier than most. I have him on my dynasty baseball team. Just curious, why should I stay optimistic with him despite a lackluster 2023. I know he’s obviously young, but what is his ceiling?
Keith Law: Middle-of-the-order bat ceiling. Started the year slow as he had a lot of adjustments to make, but improved substantially as the season went on – and was only 18, younger than some high school draftees last year.

Zak: What’s the next rule change you’d like to see implemented at the MLB level?
Keith Law: ABS is coming eventually, but in the meantime just raising the bottom of the strike zone slightly would probably get us a lot more balls hit into play.

Troy: Donaldson over Black last season. This season it doesn’t appear he’ll have a starting job to start the season. Does Black need more time in AAA? Seems odd the Brewers aren’t carving out a spot for him. Even if it’s super utility guy.
Keith Law: He can’t throw enough for third so I’m not sure what their intention is, with Frelick perhaps getting the nod at second.

Brent: Noah Schultz is an exciting prospect for the White Sox. Seems like the biggest concern for him is health. If he can pitch like he did for 120 plus innings instead of 20 something. Can he become the team’s top prospect next year? Thanks.
Keith Law: Yes, but he ended the year on the IL with a shoulder impingement so I doubt they push his workload that much.

James: Was looking at the 2016 draft. Will Smith the only all star in the first 41 picks before round 2 which has three all stars and round 3 which also has three. Two best players (Burnes, Bieber) went in round four. Was that just an odd year? I feel like normally teams nail at least half the top ten picks
Keith Law: Yes, that year’s draft wasn’t great at the time and it’s been awful in hindsight. Moniak, Senzel, Ray, Puk, Pint, Collins, Groome … yeeeeesh.

gach zreinke: Thoughts and timetable on Dodgers’ Hyun-Seok Jang?
Keith Law: Hasn’t thrown a pitch yet. I imagine we’ll all see him in spring training.

Mike: Is Colson Montgomery a middle of the order hitter on a contending team?
Keith Law: That would be his absolute ceiling – if he gets to his peak hit/power and also stays healthy. He just did not look right last year even after he returned, which is why I had him outside the top 25.

Mike B: Great job as always with the prospect lists.  So I know you didn’t have time yet for a full write up of the O’s/Brewers trade. Do you think this was the O’s finally doing a good job of digging into their prospect depth to get a top mitch pitcher?  I thought it was a good trade for both despite Yankees fans saying the O’s gave up less than the Yanks were asked for!
Keith Law: Yes, I think it was a good trade for both sides.

Guest: Everything I read about Wilken makes him sound like.a legit bat. Just on O, is he a Guy?
Keith Law: I think so.

Matt: Assuming Franco never plays again, are the Rays off the hook paying him?
Keith Law: If he’s in prison or simply unable to secure a work visa, yes, they’re off the hook.

kevin: what was the biggest reason for cartaya’s down season and is it fixable?
Keith Law: I asked a lot of people that question and the consensus answer was “I don’t know.” If he was hurt enough to destroy his performance, no one seems to know about it. It wasn’t an obvious failing, like an inability to hit a high fastball. People who loved him a year ago were befuddled too. That’s concerning because if you don’t know what’s wrong, you don’t necessarily know what to do next. I would return him to AA to start the year, at least.

CVD: Are the Lerners actually keeping the Nationals, or is this just posturing like Angelos did with the Orioles?
Keith Law: I assume this is posturing.

Caleb: Have you played any of the Wingspan expansions?  I have the Euro expansion and love the new birds, but I’m afraid the Oceania expansion (with Nectar) will change the mechanics too much.
Keith Law: I have not, unfortunately.
Keith Law: My Wyrmspan review copy is on its way, though!

Guest: Did the Padres ruin Luis Torrens?
Keith Law: Taking him in the rule 5 draft may have ruined him.

Hoobastank: Trying to make sense of the Tigers big improvement in farm rankings. Would you credit it mostly to the difference between how Harris and Co handle player development compared to Avila? Anything specific in differences? Such a huge turnaround, in a years time, all from guys drafted from the previous regime. Has to be one of the quickest impacts a new FO has a had on existing talent on a farm, no?
Keith Law: Strong draft, some big steps forward from guys in the system thanks to new PD folks, and a lot of other teams sliding due to promotions or other factors. I do think the minors as a whole are down – the #5 team this year might have been #8-10 a year ago.

James: You put so much work into these rankings and the draft. Are there any cheap teams that aggregate your and other’s thoughts, especially with the draft, since it’s such a crap shoot? Or could your thoughts on someone like Owen Caissie be used for/against them in trade discussions?
Keith Law: I know teams that take my rankings, MLB’s, BA’s etc. for the draft and use them in their draft models. I always say that’s not the purpose of the rankings, but I can’t stop them from doing so.

Jay: Atlanta is stretching out Reynaldo Lopez in the Spring. Any chance he can stick as a starter?
Keith Law: He’s never had the arsenal or command to start. He can hold his velocity deep into games, but that’s never been enough for me to consider him a starter – I got a ton of grief for leaving him off my top 100 for that reason.

Shodai: Who would you rather have starting in CF in 2025- PCA or Cody Bellinger ignoring salary?
Keith Law: I’ll go on a limb here and say Bellinger.

Ryan: Assuming he stays healthy and remains a starting pitcher, how long will it take to build Reggie Crawford up until he is MLB ready?
Keith Law: Feels like it could be two more years in the minors, no? He barely pitched this past year coming off TJ and never pitched that much before.

Brian: Who are some former prospects who’ve faded that you anticipate a breakout for this year? Last year you called Leody Taveras and Cole Ragans. Alek Thomas? Brett Baty?
Keith Law: I’ll do the breakouts list in mid-March – I haven’t thought much about that piece yet.

Brian: Who was your biggest disappointment when doing the rankings? Was there one player going in you thought would have had a bigger impact in 2023 and would be a star that just didn’t materialize?
Keith Law: Cartaya was originally on the list in the 70s or so, but as I circulated it to sources & also considered him further I realized I had no argument to put him on the list except that he was on it last year.

James: Who would you have taken 1-1 in the last draft?
Keith Law: Crews or Langford. Not a pitcher.

Ryan: Your report on Jun-Seok Shim was really encouraging. Do you have any additional info or that you could share?
Keith Law: I don’t hold information back. It’s all in the articles.

Andrew: Cleveland traded Junior Caminero for Tobias Myers. Why’d they do that? And has Clev. turned into a sneaky bad FO? Caminero, Nolan Jones, and Yandy would look pretty good in that lineup.
Keith Law: Brito’s going to be good and I don’t think Jones has that kind of year if he’s not playing at altitude. I think they didn’t know what they had in Caminero and the Rays out-scouted them. (Cleveland has cut its scouting staff, and that may be hurting them.)

Adam D.: Love the sleeper note on Rayner Arias potentially making a big jump. Am I crazy to think that this time next year the Giants could have five top-100 players (Eldridge, Arias, Whisenhunt, Martin and Crawford)?
Keith Law: Seems really optimistic on the last two. Maybe one of them gets there, but both is a lot to ask.

Steve: Is there any hope left for Luis Patiño ?
Keith Law: I’d still take a flier on him.

James: Who has better chance of winning the pennant again? Dbacks or Rangers?
Keith Law: Rangers but if I were betting I’d bet the field instead.

James: Is Lawlar blocked? Is he better than Perdomo? Will Lawlar start at AAA?
Keith Law: Perdomo shouldn’t block Lawlar when they believe Lawlar is ready.

Jason: what is the ceiling with jackson chourio? given all the factors (his deal, etc) should he be on the MLB club opening day?
Keith Law: I would really rather they give him time in AAA, now with no pressure around a call-up since he’s getting paid regardless. I think he’s going to be a superstar – a top 10 player in MLB at his peak.

Brian: Do you ever discuss your sources with other prospect writers? I’m curious how secretive the world is/isn’t when you all know the same people (and most say they cross reference lists with scouts), and how that plays into the differential product of the lists.
Keith Law: Not names, necessarily, but I might say “the Mets told me” something when talking to Eric or Jonathan.

Red: What are your thoughts on the Fanatics jersey fiasco? Seems like everyone agrees that they are crap.
Keith Law: Not really my lane but they did look bad.

Chris: Keith – we just heard another sob story for a billionaire owner (this time out of Arizona) laying the groundwork for extending a hand out to taxpayers to fund a stadium deal that (i) isn’t necessary, and (ii) will NOT create any economic benefit for the community. It seems like a simple solution is for Congress to make the anti-trust exemption conditioned on no public financing for stadiums. For every senator that accepts money from wealthy owners that is impacted with the prospect of security a MLB franchise in her or his home state, there’s another that is impacted by a franchise leaving. Not necessary a question, but more of a commentary. /fin
Keith Law: You’ll never get this to happen, though. MLB lobbies Congress and there is no real opposing entity pushing money into DC like that.

James: Will Skenes debut this year?
Keith Law: I imagine so.

Bobby: Thoughts on Jung Hoo Lee? Probably harder to scout international guys but you would have more information than the average American fan has access to
Keith Law: I wrote about him and the signing here.

Blood on the Tracks: Chase Burns or Brody Breckt?
Keith Law: I saw Brecht Friday, think I’d lean Burns.

James: Was Gabe Kapler a good manager? I feel like the giants were always over performing
Keith Law: I think he was. He got fired for failing to overperform last year.

AnalyticsPlant: Klaw – your prospect work seems to have the momentum of a runaway freight train. Why are you so popular?
Keith Law: I am not contaminating the planet.

Dave: The Pirates handling of Henry Davis seems … odd? He struggled in right field with minimal experience at the position, which seemed to carry over to the plate. With Endy hurt, it looks like he would catch but is now fighting for a backup role behind Grandal. What would you do with him this season?
Keith Law: Catch him every day. I’d be surprised if he really was the backup behind Grandal – I haven’t heard/read anything about that, and Grandal was below replacement level last year.

Matt: I thought it was funny the 49ers didn’t know the rules of overtime. Imagine that happening in the 10th inning of Game 7 and the closer didn’t know the game would be over if he gave up a hit.
Keith Law: Same.

Aaron: The Oceania expansion mechanics updates are very nice and go a long way to balancing actions on the board. Egg spamming is not quite as viable
Keith Law: And Asia has a two-player mode I’d love to try.

Ryan: Speaking of Padres and Luis. Is Campusano just another example of catchers needing more time to develop?
Keith Law: I think so.

Gsteve27: I know u often remind the listeners/readers that baseball is hard but what do you think was the cause for Gavin Stones and Miguel Vargas disappointing season after having a lot of success in the minors? Are you still believing in Vargas as you are in Stone?
Keith Law: Read what I wrote about Stone in the top 100.

James: Hunter Goodman from the Rockies just a guy? Could he be a GUY?
Keith Law: He’s 1b only, maybe, and swings and misses way too often. I don’t see it.

James: Are you surprised more teams haven’t used the Braves strategy more of locking up young players to long deals early?
Keith Law: Oh I think a lot of them try.

James: Does the transfer portal influence the way you look at a player or not or are baseball evaluations mostly immune to that?
Ryan: What’s a reasonable MLB peak for Ethan Salas look like, assuming he gets past the inherent teenager catcher risk?
Keith Law: Transfer portal doesn’t affect player evaluations – I have no issue with players moving to another school for NIL $ or playing time or any other reason.
Keith Law: Salas looks like a monster, could be ++ defense with power and patience. We haven’t had a prospect this young with this performance since Harper.

Brian: Can we expect more Klawchats soon?
Keith Law: I plan to, travel permitting.

Caleb: Cards fan, and they have the #8 pick this summer.  I’m going to guess this year’s top 10 isn’t as loaded as last year’s, but how does it compare to an average draft?
Keith Law: Right now it looks below the norm because the high school hitting class is very weak.

Adam: Hey Keith. Thank you for all your work. It’s always a fun time when your lists come out. Have you ever thought about compiling a ranking of your sleepers that you do for each team? Would be interested in the their order of where you see them ranked against each other.
Keith Law: All 30 sleepers ranked? I had never considered that.

AJ: Vlad Jr. settling in as a .270, 30 HR guy would be a bummer after what he did in 2021. Do you give him a mulligan for the last 2 years? Or did he just have his career year early? Troy Glaus style
Keith Law: A two-year mulligan is a lot. Kind of stunned by the low BABIPs. Not like he doesn’t hit the ball hard. His actual stats were well below what  you’d expect from his batted-ball data, so there’s some reason to hope he’ll bounce back beyond just a .270/.340/.460 line.

Jay: Who would you take 1.1 in this year’s draft as of today?
Keith Law: The most honest answer is that I don’t have enough feel for these guys yet. If you really, really want a name, I think it’s Wetherholt, who also left last night’s game with a hamstring injury so I may have to wait a bit to see him.

Shodai: Last year there were a lot of negative opinions out on Miguel Amaya, did his MLB stint help answer any of those questions for him going forward? Also do you ever randomly wonder what Junior Lake is up to these days? #callback
Keith Law: Last year, I wrote this: “he could end up the Cubs’ catcher before the year is out as a 20-homer type with some patience and better defense than Willson Contreras offered.” Probably too high on the power, but I think the rest is going to turn out to be right.

Steven: Any thoughts on Jason Benneti moving to Detroit broadcast team?
Keith Law: He’s one of the best. Glad he found a good spot.

Ryan: Only two years for Crawford? That surprises me because like you said, he has barely pitched. Thanks for the work you do!
Keith Law: I imagine they’ll try to get him 15-20 starts this year for 60-80 innings, then bump him up some more in 2025, and in 2026 hope to get him to the majors – unless they want to make him a straight reliever before that.
Keith Law: Of course that assumes he performs well. Has the stuff, certainly.

Guest: When talking to people, why do they value prospects over actual MLB talent. One guy told me he likes Jackson Holliday over Bo Bichette…isn’t Bichette Holliday’s peak??
Keith Law: I think Holliday can be better than Bichette, but how I value the two would depend on the team. Are you trying to win in 2024? You’d rather have Bichette.
Keith Law: I think Holliday will be better than Bichette, to be clear.

David: What should the Red Sox starting OF be this year if you had your pick?
Keith Law: Abreu, Rafaela, Duran, with Yoshida DHing?

Richard: Excited that we get to see Yainer Diaz catch most days (so long Maldy!). What kind of output do you think is reasonable for him as an everyday guy?
Keith Law: .270/.300/.475, 20 homers or so?

Harold: Although it would be hard to gather the data to answer this definitively, what percentage of the time does a pitcher, such as Bradish, end up requiring TJ after a UCL sprain that they try to remedy through PRP?
Keith Law: I don’t know if anyone knows the answer to this, but that players try PRP because it’s not major surgery and in most aspects of life you pick the non-surgical option first before the surgical one.

J.P.: Thoughts on Dom Smith’s signing? Here I thought Busch was all set to play 1B for the Cubs, and now he’s as blocked as he was with the Dodgers, apparently.
Keith Law: The Cubs signed Smith to a minor-league deal. He’s not blocking Busch.

Zane: I feel like the Reds have a slew of talented young international prospects. Who is your favorite out of Carlos Jorge, Hector Rodriguez, Alfredo Duno, and Ricardo Cabrera?
Keith Law: That’s answered in the Reds top 20 – it’s the guy I ranked highest.

Sammy: Thoughts on Colt Keith this year? Will he be able to handle 2B?
Keith Law: I think his bat will play anywhere and second base might be a challenge for him, at least in the short term.
Keith Law: I know scouts who think he should just play first base and rake. I’m not there yet.

James: If you notice a player in another club is undervalued like the Rays did, how do you go after them without tipping the other team off?
Keith Law: Subtlety. It’s a negotiation – you don’t tip off the other side to what you really want, and you might ask for more (give us Brayan Rocchio!) and when they laugh, you say “oh okay fine we’ll take some rando off your DSL roster.”

Guest: Hey Keith, reading through the Rockies Top 20 right now and truly blown away by how bad they’ve been drafting in the first round. All of Veen, Montgomery and Hughes showing real signs of missing. This has been a long-running issue with the team, it feels like. What strikes you as the issue? Scouting, development, pure dumb luck?
Keith Law: Hughes got hurt – different than the other two, although Veen’s had injuries too. But I don’t see Hughes as a bust at all.

Sammy: Amed Rosario just signed with TB- what does that mean..
Keith Law: He’s about to have the best year of his career?

Woodsy: I, too, am traveling to for work, but going to Atlanta. Any food recommendations? Thanks, KLaw!
Keith Law: I haven’t had a regular dinner in Atlanta in some time, although I love Ponce City Market (Spiller Park for coffee) and Krog Street Market. A few of my ATL favorites have closed, including Empire State South and the Lawrence.

James: We are somehow even more divided politically that four years ago. Any chance a player wouldn’t sign with a TX/CA team because of their political beliefs?
Keith Law: Haven’t heard of that, although I can imagine someone not wanting to raise their daughters in Texas (or, if there were a team there, in Alabama).

Chris: Manfred seems pretty intelligent and self aware. But every time he opens his mouth when asked to comment on the A’s move to Las Vegas, he seems petty, dismissive, and completely out of touch, particularly when it comes to empathizing with Oakland fans. Is he that beholden to ownership where he can’t even seem to acknowledge reality?
Keith Law: I think Manfred doesn’t have an ‘inside voice,’ so to speak. He doesn’t soften the message or speak in platitudes when talking to the public – which on the one hand is refreshing, even though it’s also rather telling.

Matt: Even the mayor of Vegas thinks the A’s should go back to Oakland. Is Vegas a long term answer for a MLB team?
Keith Law: I do not think Las Vegas will ever be a good market for MLB. It doesn’t have the population/demographics for 81 home games, and climate change is only going to make it harder to play or live there. There are other markets with more favorable characteristics, including Nashville, Portland, and Austin.

Ty: what pitch data stats do you look at when compiling your lists?
Keith Law: Not to be glib, but everything I can get my hands on. I want to know everything I can, and then I try to work from the facts – data, scouting reports, my own observations – to the conclusion.

Guest: Should the Tigers have taken Jenkins?
Keith Law: They should have taken Langford, although that in no way is a knock on Clark (or Jenkins).

Ben (MN): Is there any trustable data on how much money MLB teams make per season? Reporters discuss the Twins receiving a lower payment from their TV deal this season as if the team would be operating at a “loss” by maintaining the same payroll as last year. I find it hard to believe that they are breaking even in a normal year and that any increased expenses would mean a loss. Wouldn’t a lower TV payment  but a similar payroll likely mean the team just makes less of a profit for this one year?
Keith Law: I do not believe any MLB team is actually operating at a loss. You can make a paper loss on your income statement but these businesses generate stupid amounts of cash.

Morgan: First time in Savannah and Charleston. 2 days each. What are some can’t miss things?
Keith Law: Was just in Charleston over the weekend. Finally ate at FIG, which was a bucket-list place for me. Best part was actually the sticky sorghum pudding dessert.

JRG: Thanks for all the writeups on prospects. There are a number of guys who seem to have all the tools, but just never can put it together. Over the course of your career, what was the best example of a guy that didn’t seem like he would put it together, but then everything finally clicked for him and he made the leap?
Keith Law: Josh Hamilton’s probably not the best answer, although his name was the first to come to mind. I’ll have to think about this one as I can’t find a really apt example.

ZAS: Do you expect Cleveland to be aggressive and try to get Deyvsion De Los Santos AB’s? I assume Manzardo will be forced to start the year in AAA although I feel like he’s ready.
Keith Law: I don’t think Deyvison is going to hit at all. He wasn’t even a top 20 guy for Arizona and wasn’t on my Guardians list. I really am not a fan.

Thai: Where in the top 100 would Roki Sasaki rank if he was eligible?
Keith Law: He’s not eligible and I haven’t given him anywhere near the consideration I gave all the guys I did put on the rankings (or just beyond it).

Leonard: Does Taj Bradley have enough effective pitches to solidify a spot in the TB rotation>
Keith Law: Yes.

Shodai: Speaking of Manfred and things that are bad for baseball, where would you put the odds of an industry shaking gambling scandal in the next 10 years of so? Based on other sports I’d say it’s a dead lock that some players are gonna get popped but I’m worried about something bigger.
Keith Law: 100% chance some player gets suspended for betting on games. Maybe 25% chance of a broader scandal. We have had a few scouts get caught up in gambling stuff, back in the early 2000s. The pervasive nature of sports betting now just makes it way more likely we have problems.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week but yes I do hope to do these more regularly again now that the top 100 is behind me. Thank you all for reading and for your questions. Stay safe!

My most recent post at the Athletic covered most of the prospects I saw in the Arizona Fall League last week.

Keith Law: I built this thing for you. Klawchat.

TomBruno23: What role, if any, should the Democrats play in helping to solve the issue of the next Speaker?
Keith Law: None. Not their circus. Let the other side struggle.

Sam: Any good food recommendations in the Raleigh area?
Keith Law: Bharvana Brewery, MOFU, Beasley’s, Poole’s Diner, Jubala Coffee.

mac: Is there a systemic problem in the yankees’ approach to hitter development? Do you see Volpe, Peraza, Pereira, and others’ helplessness against major league breaking balls as linked or coincidental?
Keith Law: I don’t see the link other than that two of those guys (Volpe and Pereira) were promoted to the majors before they were ready. I think Volpe will adjust. Pereira was having trouble with contact in the minors so the promotion was pretty risky.

Dave: Does the tremendous success of Jackson Holliday impact how teams view his brother, Ethan?
Keith Law: Yes, naturally, but I’m not sure that it should. It’s just human nature to assume they’ll follow similar paths. Everything I’ve heard on Ethan is wildly positive, though, even before Jackson became the #1 pick in 2022.

Ian: What in the world is going on with the Red Sox?
Keith Law: I have no idea. Some of the names that have been floated have been … uninspired?

Chuck: Glad to see you posting on Bluesky a bit. With Twitter suppressing links and non-blue checks, it’s become increasingly useless. The conversation on Bluesky seems like Twitter 10 years ago.
Keith Law: I’m on Bluesky more than any other place because of what you just said – there’s some actual conversation, and a lot of my favorite Twitter follows migrated there already. I’m still on Threads and Spoutible as well. I’m not that invested in any particular site taking off, but I want to be where you folks are.

Alex: Maybe too long for a chat, or maybe not possible with publicly available data, but… while your player analysis is franchise-agnostic, is it possible to apply sabermetric analysis to team-level competencies? E.g. we know that Cleveland and Los Angeles have a track record of success at improving pitchers in their farm system. Tampa is *really* good at assembling a bullpen. How rigorous can we get in analyzing those kinds of skills?
Keith Law: We do know these things, but they’re also quite subject to change – if one particular coach leaves an org, do they take that competency with them? I don’t view any of those things as permanent to a specific club.

Sedona: hey Keith, I enjoyed your read on the MVP predictions. Too bad we couldn’t get your thoughts on NL ROY. Wanted to see your thoughts on Nolan Jones. He’s shown even splits home and away as well as righty vs. lefty (very unusual). He’s gonna strike out a ton, but hits for a high avg. What to make of this? The next CGON?
Keith Law: I’m not really buying that as sustainable … there’s still a ton of swing and miss there even with the benefit of altitude. He had a .401 BABIP this year! I do think the L/R evenness is a function of playing half his games in Denver, so the LH breaking stuff that gave him trouble in AAA isn’t breaking as well, giving him more of a chance. I think he’s a useful but flawed player.

Bret: Have you seen Jung Hoo Lee play enough to have an opinion on his MLB potential?
Keith Law: He’ll be on my free agent rankings later this month.

Greg: I just can’t imagine Vaughn Grissom is in the Atlanta organization next year. What would his value be in a trade? Could he bring back a controllable starter like Cease?
Keith Law: By himself, no, but in a package, sure. He’s valuable – I think a lot of teams would see him as a future starter.

doug dennis: When might we expect an updated prospects list?  thank you for your work.
Keith Law: Prospect rankings will be in late January/early February.

Andrew: Any thoughts on the Tigers moving Jung to 3B, as has been reported? I was surprised because I thought Keith would play 3B and Jung 2B. Can either be an above average defender?
Keith Law: Keith probably ends up at 1b. I wish I’d see Jung play third in the AFL but he DH’d the one game I saw him play, and didn’t start the other two times I saw his team. It was not my most productive AFL trip with several days where all games were at the same time plus some odd lineup choices.

Ryan: Two part question. When do you see the Brewers bringing up Jackson Chourio, and when should they bring him up? I assume both answers will be sometime in 2024?
Keith Law: Yes to both. I wouldn’t rush him, and I don’t think they will since CF is one place where they have depth.

Louie: Do you think Tyler Stephenson has any trade value left after a pretty poor season both at the plate and behind the dish? With Reds bringing Luke Maile back, it feels like he could be on the way out.
Keith Law: I thought his 2021 was kind of his ceiling, but 2023 seems way below his true talent level. I’m shocked that he’s not making harder contact – that was his profile as a prospect, in HS and in the minors when healthy, a catcher who might be power over hit but you can live with that for that position. So yes, I think he has trade value, since there are always 6-8 teams looking for help behind the plate.

Marc: Keith, have you seen enough of Nick Gonzales to say he’s not a first division 2B? Not a big board game person but bought Lacrimosa based on your review and my wife and I love it. Anything you’d recommend that’s similar is style of play? Thanks!
Keith Law: I’m probably the wrong person to ask on Gonzales because I’ve always been a skeptic, at least since he signed; I took a fair bit of grief from Pirates fans for leaving him off my top 100 several times, but I saw below-average D and too much of a dead-pull approach. He needs to make several changes to be a regular. I’m thrilled you like Lacrimosa – check out Red Cathedral and Merv: Heart of the Silk Road.

Larry: Why don’t the Astros play Chas McCormick every day? 3.8 fWAR, above average vs lefties and righties. Am I missing something?
Keith Law: About ten years too young, maybe?
Keith Law: I don’t know any details, but I thought the Astros dismissing Sara Goodrum, kind of a rising star over there, when that system keeps kicking out players who exceed expectations was surprising, even before we consider the bad look of firing one of the highest-ranking women in any baseball ops department. She’d be a good hire for any team.

JJ Picollo: Is trading Salvador Perez to the White Sox an actual thing?
Keith Law: Why would the White Sox do that?

Matt C: Who is your preferred pitching prospect between Chase Hampton, Tekoah Roby, and Jairo Iriarte?
Keith Law: Roby.

Guest: I saw your report on Chase Delauter’s wonky swing mechanics. Do you think he gets exposed in AAA and MLB?
Keith Law: I think that’s the risk; it’s what several area scouts around here expected, given the hips and the swing and his tendency to cheat to get to good velo. I noted that there are guys who get away with suboptimal swings, so I don’t mean to say this is definitive, but I’m more worried about him getting exposed at those levels than other hitters of comparable performance and backgrounds.

James: Will Twitter still exist in 2 years?
Keith Law: Yes, but it’ll be like Gab or any of those other highly siloed right-wing sites.

Mike: Is Luis matos just a manny margot offensively? I want to think he has more pop but was curious on your thoughts
Keith Law: More raw power, yes. I thought Margot would hit for more average than he has – .274 is his season high – given his contact skills. Matos is similar in a few ways but he’s got more now power.

Jake: Michael Fulmer is going to miss 2024 with a UCL and is out of contract. If he filed for workers compensation to put some money in his pocket, do you think teams would retaliate against him over it?
Keith Law: I saw that news this morning and took him off my rough cut at a top 50 free agents – he was on the bubble – but I thought maybe someone signs him for two years.

Brian: Do you think the Phillies will resign Nola or will he leave?
Keith Law: I can not imagine they let him walk, especially if they get to the World Series again. They have to be so flush with cash, he’s their one FA of note (everyone loves Hoskins, but they just don’t need him), and you’ve seen the old Nola again the last two months.

Codey: Almost 1 year later. What would your update be to the DBacks BlueJays trade? Varsho/Moreno/Gurriel
Keith Law: AZ definitely ahead so far. Surprised Varsho regressed that much.
Keith Law: I had Moreno as a top 6 prospect in baseball before he came up, though, so I could have a little confirmation bias here.

Ryan: The Dbacks have a gaping hole at third base. The Rays have a ton of depth at third base (Paredes, Diaz, Caminero, Mead, and Aranda). They also have a need at shortstop right now. Does a trade involving Perdomo for Mead make sense for both teams?
Keith Law: Three months ago I would have said yes. After seeing Mead play defense in the big leagues, I’m less sure. The game sped up on him really quickly.

Brad: Would you have Schwarber in the leadoff spot if you were managing the Phillies?
Keith Law: No.

Mike: Dj herz looks like a weapon, but in what capacity? Not many bullpen arms throw only 92
Keith Law: Might throw a little harder in the pen. I think he’s a reliever, FB/CH only with deception, maybe he becomes a bulk guy who goes once through the order?

Codey: Why do you think prospects are going through the minors what feels like quicker than ever these days?
Keith Law: Great question without a single explanation. Some I think is teams realizing players can be ready sooner than the one-level-per-year norm. Some is teams realizing those players are cheaper than veterans – 80% of the production for 5% of the price. Some is the advent of better data that should help teams make better decisions (e.g., Boston promoting Roman Anthony to high A). But I also worry it will encourage MLB to further contract the minors.

Duncan: Do you think Alek Thomas will ever be a decent or better major league hitter?
Keith Law: Yes. He’s only 23 and boosted his contact quality quite a bit this year.

addoeh: If there is anything to change with regards to the wild card round, I would get rid of off days.  If there has to be double headers, so be it.  Thoughts?
Keith Law: Players hate doubleheaders – they’d oppose that. I sort of agree with you about off days in general … I think days without baseball are bad for the sport. This is one of our strongest times of year, with NHL/NBA barely starting, the NFL obviously there but in a quieter part of their season, and yet we just give away real estate with days that would never have games.

JR: Can you pray to the baseball gods we get some close postseason games and/or game 7s? This postseason has lacked much drama to date.
Keith Law: Some great individual games but I agree that we need a long series or two. TEX/HOU might go that way after last night. Houston’s bullpen remains ridiculous.

SJ: Any hope Elly stays at SS? If not, can he stick at 3B or will he follow his fellow Cruz Oneill to RF?
Keith Law: I give Elly a way better chance than Cruz.

Brad: Long time fan, love your work. Am I right to be very underwhelmed by the Chris Getz promotion seeing as how he had a major hand in making this roster what it is?
Keith Law: No, I don’t think he had anywhere near as much of a hand in the MLB roster as you seem to think. I’ll be very curious to see what he does with far more autonomy. He’s definitely a change from Williams/Hahn.

Codey: would any of next years top 100 ranked hire than this years Corbin Carroll or Gunnar Henderson to start this season?
Keith Law: I don’t know. Holliday is obviously still my #1, and he’s in that range too. I might have gone Carroll, Holliday, Henderson? Hard to say because we now have a year of big league data on two of those guys and they were, to use the technical term, fucking awesome./

George: Questions about two guys you didn’t touch on in your AFL article: Hassell and Herz from WSH. Whats your outlook on Hassell now, after almost a year and a half of poor performance following his hamate injury? and is there anything there with the crazy k/9 numbers with Herz?
Keith Law: Herz I just answered. Hassell has gone backwards, unfortunately. Maybe he just changed his approach too much because he didn’t have his hand strength back earlier in the year, but now he’s kind of stuck in the wrong gear.

David: How much do you care that the best baseball team each year is likely not going to win the World Series? Should we celebrate the best regular season teams more? Or should this whole debate just stop and we all just enjoy baseball?
Keith Law: You know what I’m going to say. Just enjoy the baseball. And by the way, is anyone really going to argue that the Phillies or Rangers or Astros aren’t actually the best team? They all look pretty damn good to me. Isn’t October as much about who’s got their A roster healthy as anything else?

Harry Potter: When evaluating a prospect, how do you factor in something like Tommy Troy playing most of the year with a broken foot? Or do you factor it in at all?
Keith Law: I always factor injuries into evaluations.

Codey: do you still believe in Drew Jones as a top flight prospect potential wise? Or has his struggles/ injuries since draft day scared you off of that?
Keith Law: I see a lower floor than I did before. I also know we haven’t seen him fully healthy since he signed.

Cwsoxfan: Please come to FPAZ, eventually. ?
Keith Law: First Pitch? It’s really too late for me to come to the fall league. By that point a lot of the better prospects are gone.

Brad: Everyone here in Chicago seems to believe that trading Burger is like trading Sosa or the cubs trading Lou Brock.  To me this is his ceiling and it’s about a 2 WAR player. What do you think?
Keith Law: Yeah the OBP problem really caps his ceiling. Nice player. If he turns into a star, I would say that wasn’t likely to happen in Chicago.

Jay: I wouldn’t say I struggle with mental health, but I can’t put the damn Twitter down and as a result I cannot get my mind off this dumpster fire of a country and world we’ve got here. Have you benefited from not being on Twitter as much as you used to, or do you just keep up with the shit show in other ways?
Keith Law: I’ve definitely been happier using it far less. Some fan of a specific team got mad because I tweeted about one bad strike call but not others, and it was just such a reminder of how stupid that site has become. (I was on a plane most of that day and happily offline.)

Dr Who: Do you have any thoughts on Kim Ng leaving the Marlins? I thought she was doing a pretty good job over there.
Keith Law: It sounds like she stood up for herself in the best possible way. The most concerning detail I’ve read is that the owner wouldn’t let her hire her own people for some scouting and PD jobs. If that’s true, then she’s not really the GM! I believe she’ll get another opportunity this winter or next. I’m not saying the glass ceiling is gone, but it’s cracked, at least.

Matt: Apologies if I missed your coverage on this, but curious about your thoughts on Rintaro Sasaki forgoing the NPB draft to play college baseball. Are there development advantages to going this route or is this more about earning potential?
Keith Law: He’ll get paid a lot sooner this way, assuming he stays healthy and performs as expected. I’m not sure we want a flood of Japanese and Korean amateurs coming here and damaging NPB/KBO, though. I’m all for players getting paid, but I don’t want to see two of the three strongest leagues in the world destabilized, either.

John: What is the deal with Andrew Vaughn? Seems to have actually taken a step backward this year. With his limited defensive value this worries me
Keith Law: He was one of my breakout picks for this year who plateaued instead. Really thought that approach from college would carry over to pro ball but he has never gotten the patience back.

Sedona: Is Jakob Marsee in consideration to make your top 100 on your  next update?
Keith Law: No.

Cwsoxfan: Will Montgomery / Ramos actually be the future of our MI? Thanks
Keith Law: I wouldn’t bet on either guy being in the middle infield

Rich Campbell: Do you play Immaculate Grid, Keith? If so, thoughts?
Keith Law: I do not, sorry.

John: Is Colson Montgomerys ceiling Seager? To me I see maybe a light Seager. Not as good defensively and not the same power but just solid all around. Agree?
Keith Law: Seager Lite is a good way to put it. I was a little disappointed to see Montgomery look less mobile in the field in the AFL.

George: Yohandy Morales really popped in pro-ball after the draft. Did you see enough for you to bump your evaluation on him?
Keith Law: No, a major college product going off in low A (where he spent the most time) isn’t that meaningful.

Matt: I went to Ocotillo last week on your recommendation. My friends were skeptical when I explained that a baseball analyst I had never met recommended it, but everyone loved it. Just wanted to say thank you.
Keith Law: Awesome – I haven’t been in some time and am glad to hear it lived up to what I wrote several years ago. I always run into this challenge in Arizona, where I want to revisit old favorites but feel compelled to try new places so I can write about them.

Adam D.: Obviously Reggie Crawford (pitching) and Bryce Eldridge (hitting) are far superior on one side of the ball than the other, but do you see any real issues with the Giants approach to at least give them each some chances to show what they can do on the other side? At what point in their development would you say doing so becomes detrimental?
Keith Law: Yes, it risks needless injury (more a concern for Eldridge) and takes time away from developing in the role where they’ll end up.

Jim: Keith, no skin in the game, but a follow-up to your Nolan Jones comments.  The Rockies AAA club plays at over 5,000 feet in ABQ (as are several other PCL cities), so wouldn’t the issues regarding breaking balls be at least as relevant, if not more so because of the talent level?
Keith Law: Jones spent 2022 in AAA in Columbus because he was still with the Guardians.

Codey: Do you think Ivan Melendez could grow into an every day 1B or DH at the MLB level? His power seems top of the charts
Keith Law: No, it’s way too power over hit.

Matt: Does it feel like Counsell is the likely guy for Mets skipper?
Keith Law: I don’t know any gossip on this but he’s done a great job in Milwaukee and really grew into the role. I was a big skeptic, and remain so with managers who have zero experience, but he’s a success story.

E: Trey Sweeney upside? Platoon type or something more?
Keith Law: Maybe? Or utility infielder? I’ve seen him a bunch the last two years and I don’t think there’s enough stick there for more.

Sam: If I offered you the choice between winning 54% of your games every season for a decade (and the corresponding chance at winning a WS) or a decade with a guaranteed title and 9 years of 2023 A’s performance, which one would you pick?
Keith Law: Flags fly forever.

mcgiveittome: Is there enough untapped upside for players like Lewis, Julien, Ober, etc., to help the Twins take the next step toward World Series contention? It feels like they’re so close, yet so far.
Keith Law: They’re going to miss Gray’s production if they can’t re-sign him, but I think they’re still contenders. A healthy Lewis is a potential star, now that they’ve fixed all his swing issues. Still some talent marching up that system too.

KC: Gold Glove award is a joke, kinda surprised a DH doesn’t win it someday. Oh forgot that already happened when Palme8ro won it
Keith Law: Yeah I stopped paying attention to it a while ago. They tried to update the criteria but it’s still flawed.

Sedona: I read your piece on Chase Delauter’s swing for the AFL.  He describes his swing as a “Scissor Swing”.  He has a high contact/hard hit rate, low strike out rate, and seems like he hits the ball oppo on pitches that he’s late on and it still flies w/ strong wrists.  Built like a freak athlete.  I’ve seen Kyle Tucker comps.  Does he have to adjust his swing to succeed?
Keith Law: Lots of guys have scissor swings – that’s not really an issue.

George: What do you think about the player dev and scouting hires in DC? Cause for optimism? Or more of the same from a Rizzo-led FO?
Keith Law: Haas, Ciolek, Dunn are all great hires.

Guest: Hello Mr. Klaw. it’s been awhile since I’ve been able to catch one of your chats, so today’s a good day for me. It’s getting close to end-of-year lists, including music. Any top-of-mind thoughts about which certain albums will land on your upcoming list?
Keith Law: In no particular order – Slowdive, Noname, Arlo Parks, Corinne Bailey Rae, Geese, The Hives, Grian Chatten, Cory Wong, Altin Gun. I probably forgot a few in there.

Codey: Will Jordan Lawler be close to a top 10 prospect for your next rankings? Or did his s.s.s. MLB struggles worry you about his future?
Keith Law: I don’t worry about tiny samples like that.

Heather: When people say of a GM/Head of Baseball Operations, “Oh, that guy’s really good at drafting and developing”, are they praising the wrong person?  Chaim Bloom, for instance, was killed for his trades, but lauded for rebuilding the Red Sox’ farm system.  But how much did he see of Roman Anthony, Mikey Romero, or even Marcelo Mayer before he drafted them?  Do GMs run a team’s draft, or is it the scouting directors/
Keith Law: The GM hires the scouting director, normally. They might see the first-rounders, and have input into that one pick. The GM also sets the overall philosophy, such as determining that the team will use a model to make the picks vs. the scouting department doing so subjectively. But saying such-and-such a GM signed or drafted all those players is nonsense.

AHume92: Barger or Martinez at 3B for Toronto next year? Seems like either plan could easily end badly.
Keith Law: Yes but I’m more hopeful on Orelvis than I was a year ago.

Shawn: I enjoyed your summary of The Zone of Interest by Martin Amis. Had you read any of his earlier books? I liked a few of them a lot, but his style could be exhausting. I haven’t read Zone of Interest yet, but I suspect he would have been more understated with that kind of setting and storyline.
Keith Law: Yes, I read Money some time ago. I liked Zone of Interest more.

Shawn: You always hear about pitchers trying to increase the spin rate on their fastball, but is it possible for a spin rate that’s much lower than the normal range to be especially effective too?
Keith Law: Yes. Spin rate in a vacuum isn’t all that telling – more isn’t necessarily better.

Shawn: What should Bobby Dalbec’s future hold? Is he just a classic AAAA player?
Keith Law: To me, yes.

Santaspirt: I don’t understand… Is Alec Bohm good at defense now and Trea Turner bad? What if defense we’re a zero sum game all this time?
Keith Law: Bohm’s clearly better, and Turner’s defense was already sliding a little bit even last year. I said when they signed him that Stott at SS and Turner at 2B would be a better alignment. I doubt that happens any time soon.

Duff: Are you down on Baty?
Keith Law: No.

Lefty: They might call me Lefty, but I will be voting Republican next Presidential election.
Keith Law: Sure.

Marani: Is Adrian Beltre the only candidate elected to the HOF this winter?  Or does Todd Helton sneak his way in as well?
Keith Law: My guess is only Beltre.

Anthony: How would you sort the Rangers OF going forward, with Langford likely ready at some point next year?
Keith Law: Keep all four – him, Taveras, Garcia, Carter – and cycle them through the DH spot to keep everyone fresh.

Anthony: Shouldn’t the Rangers be celebrated for taking a losing team and actually spending money to try and win?  I know it all didn’t work out perfect (Degrom), but they now have foundational building blocks to mix with their young, upcoming talent.
Keith Law: Absolutely. You don’t have to win every move – they tried enough that they’re two wins from a pennant. That’s a success.

Jake: Does Bellinger get paid as if this year is who he is?
Keith Law: Yes.

Tommy: What’s your biggest baseball heresy?  Mine:  Fenway Park is a dump, that should’ve been torn down 20 years ago.  I’ve been going there since 1979.  It’s grimy, the seats are so tiny that even Keith Law finds them uncomfortable, the clubhouses are supposedly much too cramped — if it wasn’t for that GD Wall, Fenway Park would just be the site of some Boston University dorms.
Keith Law: I don’t love Fenway or Wrigley like many/most fans do. They are very uncomfortable places to watch a game. I understand the nostalgia value and I’m definitely not advocating for premium seats in every ballpark (at taxpayer expense) … but those two aren’t especially high on my list.

Tracy: Movie talk: Oppenheimer might be the best film I’ve seen this century. Have you seen it? Review?
Keith Law: Not yet. Will see it soon now that it’s coming to digital.

Thomas: re: Ng… did any team have a worse run of draft picks in 2021 and 2022 than the Marlins? Watson already got traded and Jacob Berry looks like a complete bust with the 6th pick.
Keith Law: Berry was a huge reach; Watson seemed like a great pick, although I guess the makeup was as bad as or worse than advertised. Either way, though, the scouting director who made those picks wasn’t Ng’s hire.

John Poles: Senator Steve Garvey?
Keith Law: I’d be surprised.

Jud: Keith, I know you appreciate some shoegaze.  Check out Film School’s newest album if you haven’t already.  Been really enjoying the new Slowdive and FA records.
Keith Law: New name to me – thank you.

Scott: Thoughts on Johan Rojas’s playing ability and future?
Keith Law: Defense and speed are legit. I don’t think he’s ever much with the bat but there is contact skill there to carry him enough so the rest of it plays. It would help if he gained a little strength – that frame isn’t going to allow much, but any increase in contact quality is a big boost to his chances to be a regular or more.

Jon v: Think Manzardo opens 2024 at 1B with big league club with Naylor mostly at DH?
Keith Law: Seems too soon? Maybe June.

PhillieJake: Late to chat sorry if this was asked. Why did The Pirates send Carter Bins to AFL? He’s at best fourth in depth chart. No real future in majors with team.
Keith Law: They were probably required to send a catcher – teams are given certain spots to fill – and chose him.

Sagya Williams: Believer in Wilyer Abreu?  Will he stick as an above-average regular?
Keith Law: Don’t see it.

Patrick: As one of the skeptic/rationalist types I follow, can you help explain why so many – yourself included – have taken the maximalist position on transgenderism? There isn’t much in the way of “science” to support it. The science I’ve seen you cite is flimsy at best, and reliant on language games to confuse/distort reality (“sex is not binary” is not true in any sense when every human being on the planet has exactly two parents). Is it just fear of social/professional consequences? And if so, do you see any potential downside to introducing unreality to science and politics? A concern I have is with vaccine advocates promoting an easily disprovable lie, like “trans women are women” – who would trust anything you say on vaccines when you’ve proven yourself to be willing to throw rationalism out the window when it suits your politics?
Keith Law: You kind of took the mask off there at the end. There’s plenty of science demonstrating that sex is not binary – the “two parents” thing has nothing to do with it – and that the transgender brain is real, with some genetic influences. But the important point here is that my advocacy for trans rights comes in the face of a hate-filled, anti-science, highly partisan attempt to demonize trans people, very much in the way that the Nazis othered Jews and Roma people, and very much in the way that Hannah Arendt explained would-be autocrats do as they try to rise to power. Laws that ban gender-affirming care for minors don’t improve any outcomes, and they increase suicides and self-harm. What those laws do do, however, is play to a base of voters that has been primed by a decades-long disinformation war that has told them that tobacco is safe and the climate isn’t changing and vaccines don’t work and the earth is flat and the 2020 election was stolen.
Keith Law: You have a choice: You can stand up for the rights of one of the most vulnerable populations in the country, even if it amounts to no more than opposing laws designed to isolate or harm them, or you can side with the people shouting “groomers” and “pedophiles” and doing everything they can to other trans people. I don’t think this is a very hard choice, especially given all of the evidence from the neuroscience world that the transgender brain is different.

Bartleby: Why can’t people just STFU about sexual issues that have nothing to do with them?
Keith Law: It’s the disinformation war I mentioned. Most of these people never gave a shit about trans folks until the alt-right threw a target on their backs.

Sedona: Have you had a chance to evaluate Yamamoto?  Potential #1?  Prediction where he does?
Keith Law: He will also be on my free agent rankings.

Heather: Local radio show was talking about the Red Sox’ GM search, got deep into the weeds, and started talking about Billy Beane.  One of the radio guys was adamant:  Billy Beane should be in the HOF, for the way he changed how front offices approached the game.  Should a GM who never got a team to the World Series be in the Hall?
Keith Law: I have no opinion on Beane’s Hall candidacy but I wouldn’t use pennants or WS rings as a strict, binary criterion.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for reading and all of your questions. My free agent rankings will drop right around November 1st, give or take a day or two, and that will probably be my next major piece for the Athletic. Stay tuned for that, some new game reviews, and some great podcast guests coming up as well.

For subscribers to the Athletic, I posted columns on players I was wrong about and on Boston’s firing of Chaim Bloom. I also reviewed the excellent new board game 3 Ring Circus over at Paste and updated my list of the best new games of 2023 at Vulture.

Keith Law: And more and more I get a tightness ’bout right here in my chest. Klawchat.

Dave: Hi Keith,

Have you watched The Bear? I saw you mentioned it in a recent post, but I’m not sure if you’ve written about it at length. I love the show, although sometimes it is so emotional it is hard to watch (the flashback episode of Thanksgiving dinner was especially tough.)
Keith Law: Love it. Not totally sure about the S2 cliffhangers – they felt a little overdone, especially the Marcus part – but I think the series is so well-written and acted, with the food photography especially worthy of praise.

Aaron: We’ve seen young players like Jackson Holliday and Thomas Saggese struggle in their first taste of AAA before settling in – is the jump to AAA that much of an adjustment or are we just seeing some end of year fatigue?
Keith Law: Tiny samples.

Adam (Viroqua, WI): Not a question, but I just wanted to let you know I finally pulled the trigger on an Athletic subscription because of your content.
Keith Law: Thank you! I certainly appreciate that, especially as I come to the end of my contract.

Hank: If Trout requested a trade, how much money would the Angels have to send with him? He’s owed 259M over 7 years.
Keith Law: I don’t think very much at all. He’d probably get that in free agency.

I’m Not Joey Gallo, I’m Joey Callo, C- Allo: If were were heading a team, how would you choose to manage Shohei Otani going forward. Is there a plan that makes sense, or is it just such unknown territory that you roll the dice and hope for the best with health?
Keith Law: I’d plan to have him pitch whenever he’s capable – it depends on what surgery he has, of course, but I think people saying he’ll never pitch again are being catastrophic.

Andy: Where do you stand on sleeve ads?
Keith Law: I don’t even notice them.

Pramit: Why do you think so many Jays hitters have underperformed this year?
Keith Law: I don’t have a good answer for that, sorry. Vlad and Varsho have been especially disappointing but I haven’t spent time looking at why.

Les: Should Atlanta pick up Eddie Rosario’s option, and then still look to upgrade LF if a opportunity presents itself, or decline it, maybe try Grissom in LF?
Keith Law: I think $9 million is probably reasonable for a one-win player, but I think Atlanta needs to aim for more than that. I would be about 60/40 for declining it.

Jackie: I asked you a year ago about Chaim Bloom’s job security, and you poo poohed that idea.  Three last place finishes in four years in a large market like Boston is a career killer.  Any guy who knows how to read a spreadsheet can be the assistant to the assistant GM in Tampa; being The Guy in a large market like Boston is a completely different animal, and Red Sox ownership (and you) forgot that.
Keith Law: “Any guy who knows how to read a spreadsheet can be the assistant to the assistant GM in Tampa” is a real tell here. You have zero idea what you’re talking about, don’t even know what Bloom’s last (most senior) role was in Tampa, and didn’t read the column I posted this morning which is linked atop this chat.

Tom: Would Chaim Bloom make sense as the GM in Detroit? Surprised Harris hasn’t hired one by now.
Keith Law: Wouldn’t it be odd to go from President of Baseball Ops to GM?

Heather: The Angels will begin shopping Mike Trout this winter, supposedly.  What’s the market for a guy that hasn’t played 120 games since 2019, and is signed for megabucks through 2030?
Keith Law: The durability issue is real, but he was a 6-win player last year, is still very good when healthy, and he’s Mike Fucking Trout. You sell tickets when you trade for that guy. He’s going to be a better investment than most free agents this winter.

Doug: Do you see Anthopolous making another big trade this upcoming offseason? Looks like SP will be the main need, definitely if Morton chooses to retire.
Keith Law: The betting should always be on Anthopoulos making a big trade.

JJ: This makes three GMs (or the equivalent) in a row that haven’t quite lasted four years in Boston.  That seems … rash.  Do potential hires look at that recent track record and say, “No, thanks”, or do those candidates still think, “Yeah, but it won’t happen to me“?
Keith Law: Those jobs are so scarce, and so well-paid, that I don’t expect them to have any problem finding a good candidate. Even with the ownership issues I outlined, it’s not like working for Arte Moreno or Dick Monfort or even Jim Crane.

Michael: Do you believe in the success of Orlando Arcia? Seems like they really did a nice job making adjustments with him once he came over. Very good value if he’s just a average regular, only a 2M salary or so. Or do you think they look to upgrade, looking for more upside.
Keith Law: I’m buying this. When he was a prospect I thought he’d be a much better big leaguer, but this version looks pretty sustainable.

Kevin: Going to Portland tonight to see the Sea Dogs. Could Roman Anthony be a top 5 prospect in baseball this time next year?
Keith Law: Hm. It’s a top 5 swing in the minors. If the question is “could,” then yes. I wouldn’t go to “will.”
Keith Law: I have a scouting notebook coming that will discuss him a little

Matt: Is Perry Minasian the next head of baseball operations who’ll get fired?
Keith Law: He’s the one I’m most worried about, with them missing the playoffs and his boss being crazy.
Keith Law: Also Ng, what with the owner saying they didn’t want the “distraction” of her contract situation … if that’s the case, just give her an extension. The team is better than expected this year and looks like it’s trending upwards.

Kevin w: If you were running the reds, is there anything you would have done differently in 2023?
Keith Law: Upgraded at the deadline.

Scherzers_Blue_Eye: I’ll join in with Adam, you’re one of the only reasons I keep my Athletic subscription. If you go, I go!

An overall observation from this year–it seems everyone at Harrisburg has a K-rate that makes Mike Cameron blush. Is it the player
Keith Law: They’ve rushed some guys there, too.

Kevin w: Is Vegas going to exist in 20 years?
Guest: what would you do if you were the cardinals gm.  I would trade em all and start over.  Goldy and Arenado included
Keith Law: I would have at least put their names out there in July, and would do the same this winter.

Alex: Curious why you think Kevin Alcantara has fallen off for so many? Seems like he’s proven himself pretty well after struggling the first month or so.
Keith Law: I don’t know – I remain extremely high on him.

Erwin: What do you make of Henry Davis?  Promoted too soon?  Future position?
Keith Law: Not concerned about the bat. I wish he were catching but they have Endy too and there aren’t enough AB for both.

Mike: Concern for Robert Hassell given his struggles?
Keith Law: Saw him Tuesday. Really needs to get stronger.

Adam D.: In the wake of Bloom’s firing, how much longer do you think the Giants should give Farhan? I’m of the opinion that he should get at least 3 more years to prove out the farm system improvements, but it seems many among the fanbase want him gone ASAP.
Keith Law: Owners/execs who let fan sentiment sway them are destined to make bad decisions. The Giants are also heading in the right direction, albeit more slowly than I’d thought a year or so ago.

Reggie: Do you think Max Fried will ultimately leave like Freeman and Swanson? Should they ride it out, hope for a awesome walk year, or should they explore what they could get in return for 1 year of Max on the trade market?
Keith Law: If they’re not planning to sign him, they should probably shop him, but I’d be inclined to go long-term with him.

Check our the Herz while DJ revolves it: Did Mike Rizzo just Tanner Roark the Cubs?
Keith Law: Is that about Herz? I don’t think so.

Mike: Why are so many people giving cherington a pass? Hes had 4 years and inherited a solid core. How much longer would you give him?
Keith Law: He inherited a solid core? News to me.

Marani: The Red Sox fire GMs on a weekly basis, but Brian Cashman has more job security than Clarence Thomas.  Sometimes, I miss George Steinbrenner.
Keith Law: Check Cashman’s flight records.

Bill: Is Spencer Torkelson finally over the hump? He’s had a very productive second half not only with HRs but drawing walks, and he looks more comfortable at the plate.
Keith Law: Yes.

Bret: Hey Keith. Was Richie Palacios ever a prospect of note moving through the Indians system? Does he have any chance of being a MLB level 4th OF’er/utility guy moving forward?
Keith Law: Yes and yes. Limited ceiling but I really liked him for what he was.

Dave: Did you see the announcement for Apiary? Looks pretty amazing.
Keith Law: Yes and I put in for a review copy (Jamey’s very good about that but I know there are only so many to go around).

Jay: Jett Williams .. how high could you see him rising in your prospect rankings? He has seemed to have gotten better and better
Keith Law: I’m a fan. Mets keep drafting well even when other things are going wrong for them.

Dan: CJ Abrams is a stud that will make Nats fans forget about Trea Turner. True or Truer?
Keith Law: Abrams is going to be a very, very good player, and will not make Nats fans forget about Trea Turner.

Rappa: I am very disappointed in you KLaw. In your defense of Deleware as a state, you overlooked it’s greatest invention: Scrapple. A scrapple-egg-and-cheese bagel is a big slice of Heaven.
Keith Law: I have never eaten scrapple because I know what’s in it.

Chris: Does the authority someone gets from expertise make their opinions worth more? Many people cite arguing from authority as a logical fallacy, and obviously not all authority and expertise are equal, but how do you determine the fallacy from actual authority?
Keith Law: The fallacy is saying that someone’s expertise/position makes their arguments correct. It is not a fallacy to give their arguments more consideration, or to make their background one small part of a larger evidence-based argument.

Jeff: How should the BlueJays manage Alek Manoah this offseason?  Is he tradeable? hang on in hopes of a rebound? or a sunk cost?
Keith Law: The real answer to that depends on what is actually ailing him, and I don’t think we know that.

Kip: How do view Jhancarlos Lara’s upside after this minor league season?
Keith Law: Good delivery, looks like two good pitches, some issues with LHB even at a low level this year. Intriguing arm with starter potential.

Jason rogers: Do you think the pitch clock is adding to pitcher injuries or is this just the new normal with pitchers
Keith Law: The rise in elbow injuries predates the pitch clock. It may be exacerbating the ongoing trend, but it didn’t cause it.

John: What position do you see Tyler Black playing if he’s on the Brewers opening day roster next season?
Keith Law: Third base?

Mike: Is there any hope for the Pirates being a World Series contender in the next 3-5 years? Asking for a friend
Keith Law: Yes.

Oren: What do you make of Davis Schneider? Real bat?
Keith Law: Not really. And no position.

Mike: Gavin Cross has been one of my biggest prospect disappointments this year. What’s gone wrong and has his long-term outlook changed?
Keith Law: Long-term outlook has changed dramatically. Hard to even project him as a regular given how bad his season has been.

Alex: If you were David Ross would you be playing Tauchman or PCA the rest of the way?
Keith Law: PCA, even if just for defense.

ChicagoSteve: Keith, any thoughts on former T100 guy Mets OF Alexander Ramirez. Scouting the stat line, he really seems to have regressed badly.
Keith Law: Don’t scout the stat line.

Fox: Who do you anticipate having a better career: Skenes or Yamamoto?
Keith Law: Unfair comparison.

Chris: Any comments on the George Kirby situation.  Reactions (including from Ron Darling unfortunately) seemed way over the top and typical “in my day” and “young pitchers today are coddled too much” garbage.
Keith Law: Kirby is absolutely right to say he felt gassed or tired, and all of these old guys, most of whom couldn’t have sniffed Kirby’s average velocity on the best days of their lives, should shut it.

Jay: What are your general thoughts on David Stearns? Seems to be exactly what the Mets needed
Keith Law: What about Stearns fits what the Mets needed?  I think a lot of fans advocating for Stearns don’t have any real sense of what he brings to the team.

Sedona: Do you see Cowser and Westburg the odd players out when the dust settles w/ Holliday, Heston, Mayo, Norby, Ortiz, Basallo, etc. come up?
Keith Law: Yes. Ortiz probably too, with Henderson/Holliday the left side of the infield for the next forever.

Mike: Would Bellinger’s 2023 excellence give you the confidence to give me a long term, big money deal or is there still lingering concern given how awful his previous two years were?
Keith Law: I’m leaning towards the former and I think he’ll be paid like 2021-22 never happened.

Sedona: Do you like Mason Barnett or Chayce McDermott?
Keith Law: McDermott’s a reliever for me. Barnett had some command/control questions but has been better in AA late in the year – could be real, could be a small sample issue.

Mike: Thoughts on Victor Scott II? He’s seem to have had a coming out party this year with insane numbers on the basepaths while showing some value at the plate too.
Keith Law: Extra guy. 80 speed, bat isn’t everyday.

Frank: Does Anthopolous have enough ammo in the farm system to pull off another substantial trade? It would decimate the farm if they made another from the looks of it.
Keith Law: Decimating the farm to keep the team a WS contender is worth it. I think they could.

BK: Love your monthly music lists – they turned me on to my favorite band the Wombats a few years ago. If I love the Wombats, what are some other bands I may like?
Keith Law: Maybe Sundara Karma and Two Door Cinema Club.

TomBruno23: If Wainwright ends up at 199 I know it is your fault (and Tim Lincecum and Javier Vazquez).
Keith Law: Quite possibly.

Andy: Elly is too good to not make adjustments, right?
Keith Law: I will always bet on a player this young and athletic to make adjustments.

Sedona: Believer in Ha-seong Kim’s breakout year?
Keith Law: Yes.

Dan: Whats the ceiling for guys like Trey Lipscomb and Handy Morales? Morales hits well but 0 HRs in a small sample.
Keith Law: I really don’t care if a player doesn’t homer in two months in his pro debut after he played a full college season in the spring.

Keith: Seems like Preller is safe, but should he be?
Keith Law: I wonder if he’s safe, but the fact that the Padres are so bad in extra innings doesn’t seem to be on the GM. Did he build a contending roster? Yes. That would be my #1 criterion. But finishing ~10 games under .500 in a year when you were supposed to compete is not good for one’s short-term career prospects.

Kyle: Could you ever see Oklahoma City as a future expansion market? It’s the nation’s 20th largest city in terms of population (but only 40th-something in terms of media market) – but a lot of growth in recent years.
Keith Law: It’s nowhere close. I think it’ll be decades before that’s reasonable.

Rjd: Yankee fan here, any hope for volpe? Roster construction wise, seems like the team needs him to be a superstar for 24-27 and he will probably end up a league avg ss (3 war player based on d) . I don’t have faith in this current staff of guiding him to anything more and fear the org too slow/prideful to change course, thoughts?
Keith Law: Oh I think he’s going to be much better than a league-average player.

Guy: Will it matter who Red Sox pick for GM because of ownership’s ridiculous take on being cheap these last 5 years?
Keith Law: This is one of the premises of my column today.

Steve: Are you down on Parada?   Seems to have been mediocre behind the plate, and he didn’t mash like some expected.
Keith Law: Reports from pro scouts weren’t great this year, mostly on the defense. I think he’ll hit more than enough, but he has to stay behind the dish.

Jay: A new GM fires Alex Cora, right?  Gotta have your own man in the dugout — the relationship between Bloom and Cora was downright frosty.  Cora spent many a press conference passively/aggressively telling us that Bloom was the source of every problem in Boston since King George III.
Keith Law: I don’t see that, plus I think Cora is ownership’s guy anyway. In my view he’s a good tactical manager and the right person if you’re expecting to bring up a slew of position player prospects in the next few years.

Chris: I’ve been reading you for a while and correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems you’ve become less libertarian and more liberal since 2006? Do you think this is true and if so have you thought about why?
Keith Law: I think it’s the Overton window affecting your view here. The rise of the alt-right, Christian nationalism, hate & violence towards LGBTQ+ people … I’m not going to sit quietly by while this shit takes over our country.

Mike: Do you have a sense of what Deion Sanders’ ceiling would have been had he committed to baseball?
Keith Law: He was more tools than skills, really – the lack of at bats really showed in the majors. A credit to what an incredible athlete he was that he could even accomplish what he did in MLB in what was essentially his hobby sport.

Steve: Love what the Mets did at the deadline, but while they seem stocked on position players, I’m not sure I see a pitcher in their system who projects as more than a #4 starter or middle reliever.    Am I missing anyone?
Keith Law: It’s definitely their system’s weakness. I like Sproat more than you do, I think. High beta prospect, but definitely more than #4 starter upside.

Jibraun: Re Goldschmidt and Arenado, several local writers have reported that ownership doesn’t want to trade them. The decision not to trade them can’t be pinned on Mo and Co. accordingly.
Keith Law: That’s fair, but then you have to ask ownership if they want to win, or want to just market those two stars and be happy with a .500 team.

Sedona: Jeremy Pena was unfairly destined for stardom by many… does he still have a chance?  Or has he shown who he’ll be?
Keith Law: He’s a very good player, no? League average hitter with plus defense? I’ll take it. Not a star, doubt he ever will be, but he added enough strength to make the bat play.

Guest: Do the Royals have to move MJ Melendez back to Catcher, or has that ship sailed?  Seems that the bat isn’t good enough to be an every day outfielder.  His defense has been in league worst range at both C and OF too.
Keith Law: He should be catching regularly because nobody gets better by not doing something.

Dan: MacKenzie Gore–I feel like he has the stuff, but doesn’t miss as many bats as he should. What’s his ceiling?
Keith Law: He misses plenty of bats, but his four-seamer plays well below its velocity and he needs to deemphasize it in favor of all of the other weapons he has. He’s allowed 17 homers on the four-seamer alone. That would put him in the top 50 pitchers in baseball in homers allowed even if we ignore the ten he’s given up on non-FB.

Tyler: Are you lower, higher or about the same on Kyle Harrison than a year ago? He has done a better job at limiting walks in a small sample with San Francisco but hasn’t found his groove otherwise yet.
Keith Law: Lower.
Keith Law: Tiny sample, again, and one of his outings was against a Reds team that was on the bus before they finished swinging the bats.

Sedona: Seems like Sig was big part of the Cardinals, Astros and Birds rebuilds
Keith Law: Yep. And he should get consideration for open GM jobs.

Dan: How many questions per chat do you get and just think “this person is a moron?” (other than this question, of course)
Keith Law: That’s way more common on Twitter than anywhere else. Lot of people there comment without reading an article, or comment based on something they heard I said/wrote but actually didn’t.

Jibraun: Have you considered doing a year-end books you read post? You don’t have to rank them from top to bottom, but maybe do them tiered on the 20-80 scale. I know some readers (read: me) would like that.
Keith Law: Fair idea.

Jason S: Does Langford have a higher ceiling then Crews?
Keith Law: I think so. Crews is higher probability.

Zirinsky: Yankees offense: older players having down years or an organizational philosophy that needs a rethink? Or both?
Keith Law: Why not both?

Seymour: What is Jasson Dominguez’s ceiling?
Keith Law: Superstar, top 10 player in the AL type.

Jt: Is fixing the Blue Jays just a matter of going out and getting a corner OF with some thump?
Keith Law: More than that but I think that’s a good start.

Sedona: Christopher Morel talented enough to hold down an everyday role?
Keith Law: I would bet the under.

Jibraun: Re Jay’s question and your answer, then let me ask: what do you think Stearns brings to the Mets?
Keith Law: I’m not really sure, to be honest. The most notable part of his tenure in Milwaukee was the gutting of their scouting staffs. What credit, if any, do we give him, versus Matt Arnold or Craig Counsell or the various directors involved, for their drafts? For building a great defense? For the development of the big 3 starters?

Steve: I’ve heard a bunch of people like Ryan Clifford since the deal…but that’s an awfully high strikeout rate he’s running.    How concerned should I be?
Keith Law: High risk, high reward guy.
Keith Law: There is real upside there and he may have been rushed.

Dan: Did you see Brady House yesterday? 104 MPH, 410-ft. Oppo-taco. A wise man once said “Brady House destroys baseballs.” That Nats lineup is going to be so much fun next year
Keith Law: No, I saw him Tuesday. Actually hit one ball extremely hard that was just a foulout to the RF in the box score.

Steve: Do you think the Mets should pencil Mauricio in for 2B next year (and switch McNeil to the OF), or go shopping for an OF in the winter?
Keith Law: Yes. The extension to McNeil might be an albatross … his value is so dependent on his AVG that it’s easy for him to underproduce, and now they’re kind of stuck with playing him unless they accept the sunk cost.

Jt: T or F: Babe Schnieder is a better use of a 40 man spot than is Cavan Biggio.
Keith Law: T.

Matt: Any thoughts on PCA’s first few games?
Keith Law: No.

Jeff: Will Colson Montgomery grow into more in game power?
Keith Law: I think he’ll be much more of a hitter for average/doubles than HR power.

TomBruno23: Jordan Walker…does he have to put up a 125 wRC+ to be an average player?
Keith Law: That seems too high.

Donny: Have you seen any of the robo umps in action this year? Is ke’Bryan hayes right in that we need it now?
Keith Law: My argument, based on what MLB execs have said for years, is that the ABS might not improve the overall accuracy of calls, but it will trade egregiously wrong calls for ones in the gray zone just around the plate. I believe most players would accept that – I can live with the ball 1″ off the plate being incorrectly called a strike much more than I can live with the ball 5″ off the plate being incorrectly called a strike.

Tyler: Samuel Basallo has picked up a ton of helium in the past few months. Do you see star-level potential with the bat, and where does he fit in defensively long term?
Keith Law: Blog post coming. Didn’t see him catch, unfortunately. He DHd with Ardoin, who can really catch and throw but is no more than a backup, behind the plate that day.
Keith Law: Basallo’s a big kid, BTW.

Longtime reader, first time chatter: With the explosion of prospect content in recent years, how has your job changed since you first started? Some prospect sites have multiple writers working for them, but it appears that you are flying solo – do you ever feel the need for someone to help support you in your work?
Keith Law: I like having colleagues who want to write about prospects – and when we had Zach Buchanan he did an excellent job – but I’ve got my system down for producing the key content throughout the year.

TomBruno23: Need your thoughts on Travis Kelce/Taylor Swift dating speculation, thanks.
Keith Law: Seems like he’s slumming it.
Keith Law: (I kid.)

Josh: Thoughts on this year’s draft class? Seems like a pretty uninspiring prep position player group
Keith Law: Prep class is easier to evaluate in the spring, I think. The college crop, however, is not so hot.

Joe: Do you think the way the Red Sox ownership treated Chaim Bloom will make finding his replacement difficult? He did the job they asked him to do, allowed him to build for the future with the assumption he’d see it through and then fired him in a PR move to act like the organization was turning a page. I’m a Red Sox diehard and I’m sick over this. It’s a disgrace.
Keith Law: No, for the reasons I cited above, but I said on the Athletic Baseball Show today that if you’re a candidate you should at least ask two questions: 1) will you allow me to spend to acquire pitching from outside the org and 2) was the lack of any pitchers taken with high draft picks or signed for big bonuses as international free agents an ownership mandate?

Kevin: Not sure if you have a vote this year but any thoughts on Betts vs Acuna for MVP?
Keith Law: I have NL RoY. I’ll do my column with hypothetical ballots for the other 5 awards in two weeks.

Guy: You think Biden’s too old for round 2?  Meaning competent.
Keith Law: I think Biden, Trump, Feinstein, McConnell, are all too damn old. It’s absurd.

Matt: How should Cubs fans be thinking about Miguel Amaya going forward? Hard contact, but not enough of it.
Keith Law: Does he even have 150 PA yet? You have to be more patient than that. He can hit. He will hit.

Dave: To follow up on the Kyle Harrison answer, why are you lower on him? What’s changed or not improved with profile?
Keith Law: It’s a tough delivery to repeat and his control took a real step back this year.

Kak: What’s your favorite meal to cook at home?
Keith Law: Pizza, indoor or outdoor (I have an Ooni oven, big fan); or pasta, very al dente, several ways – all’amatriciana, alla vodka, carbonara.

Jason: Listened to any of Lauren Mayberry’s solo stuff yet?
Keith Law: Just the one song. It’s fine but I hope the whole album isn’t very slow piano-driven music.

Kak: If I was starting to play board games, what would you consider the best intro game?
Keith Law: Ticket to Ride is usually my rec.
Keith Law: Five minutes to learn, and easy to find.

Kak: Will we ever have a franchise in Nashville?
Keith Law: I think yes.

TomBruno23: Sig…that list of SP drafted and developed by the Cardinals since Luhnow/Sig/Strom left after 2011 is not encouraging: Wacha, Flaherty………..Luke Weaver…………………a bunch of other guys.
Keith Law: The Weaver one I did not get. Or Hudson. Don’t sleep on Ian Bedell, though.

Josh Donaldson: What’s your album of the year so far, and why is it Geese’s “3D Country”?
Keith Law: Heh, it’s up there. Top five of the year, at least. Young Fathers’ Heavy Heavy is in there too. Grian Chatten’s Chaos for the Fly, Noname’s Sundial, Protomartyr’s Formal Growth in the Desert, Belle & Sebastian’s Late Developers, Slowdive’s Everything Is Alive. Lot of good albums this year that I liked but wouldn’t go so far as to put on a best-of list.

Steve: What would your plan with Baty be?   Give him the 3B job in 2024, bring in competition, have him start in AAA, or shop him in the offseason?    I’m guessing he won’t have much trade value at this point.
Keith Law: Third base, every day.

Fox: What was your first job out of college?
Keith Law: Management consultant. Liked it for about 6-9 months. After that it became very repetitive.

Steve: Junior Caminero’s future position with the Rays? He seems more a corner guy but I’d think it’d tough to dislodge Diaz & Paredes. They could obviously use him most at SS assuming Wander is done. 2B in place of Lowe, who never seems to stay consistently healthy or hot?
Keith Law: I think he’s a corner guy, and you dislodge whoever because he’s that kind of bat.

Pat: Grayson Rodriguez has been electric since he’s returned. Ready to believe his early season struggles are behind him and this is what’s to come?
Keith Law: I expect a lot of ups-and-downs. He wasn’t very  good his last outing, either, which I think is kind of where he’s at – stuff is more than good enough, but he’s still working out command, how to attack hitters multiple times, etc.

Matt: Jackson Jobe has been unbelievable the past few months. What’s been clicking for him this season and what’s his long-term outlook at this point?
Keith Law: Completely healthy, more than everything else.

A Salty Scientist: Is it fair to say that Eury has #1 pitcher in baseball upside? And if yes, is it just an increase in command that gets him there?
Keith Law: Yes, and I think yes.

Chew Stu: Have you ever been to Sedona?
Keith Law: Yes. I was a little hung over.

Todd: Can Wicks be a mid rotation guy?
Keith Law: That’s about right.

Kyle: How can us Orioles fan cope with talent that could turn into a dynasty but a truly horrendous Owner/Chairman set on not cashing in on it?
Just tune it all out and hope he sells?
Keith Law: Yes. Enjoy what’s on the field. Stay present. Good advice for life in general.

Bill: Love watching Bryson Stott … has he outperformed your expectations?
Keith Law: By a degree or two, yes.

Caleb: Which Wingspan habitats do you find yourself gravitating to?  I usually like to stick with building out the grasslands and wetlands.
Keith Law: I tailor it to the bonus cards. Wetlands is probably my least used, though.

Fox: In regards to my earlier question, let me rephrase. Who would you want to be the ace of your staff- Skenes, Yamamoto or other?
Keith Law: Right now, Yamamoto is an ace for someone. Skenes may be one some day.

Tom: The Anthony Rendon signing has been yet another unmitigated disaster for the Angels. I remember he was at or near the top of your free agent list that year, so my question is, how do I blame Arte Moreno for this?
Keith Law: Maybe blame him for not going all in on Cole?

Chew Derek: Have you ever played fantasy baseball?
Keith Law: Yes, from 1990 to 2002.

Mallios: Whats your favorite stadium? Least favorite?
Keith Law: PNC Park is my favorite. Tampa Bay is my least. Still haven’t been to the new Atlanta one.

Mallios: Do you agree that NYC has the best pizza?
Keith Law: Depends on what style you like. The best single pizzeria in the US for me is Pizzeria Bianco in Phoenix, but that’s Neapolitan style, and may not be everyone’s preference. For NY style, well, yes, it’s NYC.

Dana: Austin Wells has looked perfectly fine behind the plate and the pitchers have praised him. Aside from the throwing problems, what makes you think he can’t catch?
Keith Law: I’m surprised you think he has “looked perfectly fine.”

Andy: Shana Tova to you and your family.
Keith Law: Thank you, although none of us is Jewish. L’Shana Tovah to you as well.

Tom: Logan Gilbert… I remember you had him as a mid rotation guy.  Have your thoughts changed?
Keith Law: Velo jumped (twice, if you count the jump back after his junior year when he had mono) and he added a pitch. Loved the delivery & command in college.

Doug: Do you think Columbus OH will be considered for an expansion team?
Keith Law: No. I doubt we see a team added to the rust belt given population trends.

Ken from E720: over the last several years me, my wife, her brother, and nephew take a trip and visit a few mlb parks (have 7 left).  I had always wanted to go to Oakland, especially with them probably leaving.  I know people always say it is a dump and I know where is a lot of history there.  I’m sorry and I am sure I am in the minority and I know it isn’t modern but I was 6 rows a little beyond third base.  I loved sitting at that stadium.  i really enjoyed the experience and had a big ol grin on my face the entire time.
Keith Law: It is a dump, but you know what? It’s outside. You get to watch an MLB game outside, and that puts it above Tampa, and frankly above a whole lot of other experiences in life.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you so much for all of your questions and the kind words. My minor league player(s) of the year column will run at some point next week and I’ll have my last regular-season scouting notebook in the next day or two. Have a great weekend, everyone.

Keith Law: Speaking as a child of the ’70s … it’s Klawchat.

Jeb: When would expect Skenes to make his debut in the MLB?
Keith Law: If healthy, probably June or so of next year, depending maybe on whether the Pirates need him (if they’re contending in the first half). I do think he’ll have to work with his changeup a lot more before he comes up.

Jacos: Should cubs bring up PCA?
Keith Law: I don’t see the harm, but is there really playing time for him?

Nick: Do you have any concerns about Justin Crawford’s groundball rates? Is that something that will change as he gets stronger?
Keith Law: Not really. Getting guys to elevate the ball more is one of the easier things to do, according to player development folks I’ve asked over the years.

Kevin: Is Ke’Bryan Hayes turning into an elite 3B? Seems like he is finally figuring it out.
Keith Law: Defensively? I have always thought he was elite. I know he’s been on a tear at the plate recently but it’s a small sample. I’m still a fan, always ranked him pretty high, but I don’t want confirmation bias to push me here into buying into a 30-game stretch.

Steve O: I know it’s a small sample, but have you caught any Jasson Dominguez at bats in the bigs?
Keith Law: Yes but not to alter my opinions of him at all.

PJ: What is the track record of starters like Justin Steele who primarily only throw 2 pitches.  Is success sustainable long-term as a starter?
Keith Law: It’s rare, but there are exceptions. The main thing that makes me think this is sustainable is that he gets RHB out better than LHB, and as a lefty he has some natural advantage against LHB anyway, holding them to a .301 OBP this year.

addoeh: Is Justin Steele a candidate for your annual “guys I was wrong about” column?
Keith Law: He’s on it. It’s running at some point next week.

Alex (Austin): Giants seem to be stuck in this weird place of having money to spend, no one takes their money, and then it seems like they were lucky to miss (Correa, Judge).  Are they ever going to spend this money?
Keith Law: Yes, eventually they’ll find a fit, but as a fan you’d rather they spent that money on the right guys.

Tyler: What are your thoughts on Termarr Johnson’s first full season? 100 walks and around 20 HRs for an 18/19 year old in A/A+ seems like a good start….
Keith Law: That’s not the whole picture, though. He’s hit .243 on the year with a 26% strikeout rate, not great for a guy whose main tool was his ability to hit. You can’t just cherry pick those two counting stats without looking at the entire body of work. I do still like Johnson quite a bit but I really thought he’d make more contact.

JG: Keith, thanks in advance for the chats and the insight. I always learn something new.
Help me make sense of Dusty continuing to start Maldonado over Diaz and Dubon over McCormick.
Keith Law: I’m sure the Maldonado preference is about defense, right or wrong. Isn’t McCormick basically playing every day, just in RF when he’s probably the better choice in CF?

Tony: What are your feelings on Evan Carter this year? Do you believe his profile will succeed in the majors?
Keith Law: Wrote a little about him last night: https://theathletic.com/4843398/2023/09/07/rangers-promote-evan-carter…

Shatkins: Thoughts on Davis Schneider’s Ruthian start? Just a guy, or a starter on a contending team?
Keith Law: Just a guy, without a position.

Mike: Thoughts on Kyle Schwarber, leadoff hitter? Appropriate, if unorthodox, lineup construction? Or waste of a power bat before other runners get on base?
Keith Law: Would prefer to see him bat lower for that reason – HR leader in the leadoff spot seems to leave some runs on the table.

Long Time Listener: What’s wrong with Javier?  He was almost untouchable last year and he looks mediocre this year.
Keith Law: His stuff is down – lower velo on the FB, much less break on the SL – so he’s missing a lot fewer bats. Could be injury, could be fatigue.

Mike: Hi Keith! Do you think Reese Olson will be a solid starter for years to come?
Keith Law: Back-end starter, yes.

Jack: How would you grade Ben cheringtons rebuild up to this point?
Keith Law: He’s significantly boosted the talent in the system, and you’re seeing some of that in the majors. The challenge will be converting that into big-league wins – getting more pitching, getting all these guys to develop at the same time, finding the key to the fourteenth lock on Nutting’s pocketbook.

Alex (Austin): What’s going on with Jack Leiter?
Keith Law: I don’t have a great answer beyond that maybe we were all wrong about the command/control back in college.

G: First of all I want to thank you for standing up for trans rights love you Keith!!! Second, seems like Cade Horton is something to be really excited about as a cub fan. Ive seen people on twitter say he has 4-5 real pitches but don’t really trust that. Just how good is he?? How many real pitches does he have?
Keith Law: Three for sure. Cubs helped him develop a real CH since drafting him – really since the fall – and that changes his whole outlook. Good job by player development on that one.

Tony: With the Reds pumping up all of their prospects, do senzel and india get bumped out to make room for everyone else next year?
Keith Law: Senzel’s time seems like it’s up, but I don’t think they’re as keen to move on from India as that.

Braydon: Has Thomas Saggese’s stock gone up since the trade deadline, or is he just on a huge hot streak?
Keith Law: He’s good. I don’t know if his stock has changed since he’s been on an upward trend for about 15 months now. It’s not like Ragans, whose value today would be way higher than it was at the time of his trade.
Keith Law: Sorry, that is Keith Law Breakout Pick ™ Cole Ragans.

Mark: What in gods name is going on with the Nationals? Some really damning stuff coming out that’s taking the bloom off what has been a surprisingly fun season up until this point.
Keith Law: Are they just dumping salaries to try to prep for a sale? It’s pretty ugly. They let go of a lot of good people, and for a team that needs to keep acquiring talent to get rid of scouts seems really foolish.

Jeremy: I’m going to be in the Chicago area for about a week this fall; what are your must visit places? (Not spending Alinea money, but I’ll be on per diem, so I’m ok spending a bit)
Keith Law: If I could have just one meal there, it would be Monteverde or maybe the Purple Pig.

Alex (Austin): Seiya Suzuki’s statcast page is all red and he seems to be putting up corresponding numbers the last month.  Any reasons for the success spike?
Keith Law: He’s hitting about the same relative to the league as he did last year, at least overall, so I don’t want to read too much into it. I would interpret what he’s done over the last two years as a good indication of his true talent level – above-average bat, solid-average regular.

Carl: Is it concerning that Marcelo Mayer has dealt with nagging injuries in both his pro seasons? Is it fair to say he’s been surpassed by Lawlar?
Keith Law: It would be concerning if it were the same body part getting injured over and over. I’m less concerned since he’s had seemingly unrelated injuries. I don’t think it’s fair to say he’s been surpassed by Lawlar unless your main measure is proximity to the majors. They’re both great prospects.

John: When do you expect Chourio to debut with the Brewers? Is Tyler Black a candidate to be the opening day starter at 3rd base for 2024?
Keith Law: Maybe middle of next year? The good thing for Milwaukee is that they don’t need him with all the other CF options they have (including Garrett Mitchell next year). Chourio’s the long-term answer there but they can take their time with him. It was a tough call between him and Holliday for the #1 spot on the midseason rankings, but Holliday’s a shortstop and that carried the day for me.

Redraft: Knowing what you know now, would you draft Bobby Miller over Strider?  I think I take Miller.
Keith Law: I would too but it’s close.

Deke: Think there’s much chance the Rangers right the ship at this point?
Keith Law: Sure.

Tyler Y: As a lifelong A’s fan, the Las Vegas move is killing me (and also my 8 year old son, who naturally is really struggling to understand why this is happening). I’m not really sure what being a baseball “fan” will mean to me anymore if this happens. Anyway, my question is simply this–can baseball do anything to avoid the short-sighted thinking that would allow a team to flee a top 10 media market to go to Las Vegas purely to get subsidies for a stadium? It isn’t in the best interest of the sport, the players, or really even the A’s in the long-run. But here we are.
Keith Law: MLB can vote to block any team move or sale they want. I don’t think they’ll exercise that in this case because they want the public spigot to keep flowing. If Oakland or California decides to donate a bunch of taxpayer money to John Fisher, that would be better, and then another team could use Vegas as leverage (White Sox? Orioles?), but I don’t see that happening.

Romorr: Sammy Basallo is having a really great season across A/A+, what are the odds he sticks at C? And without catching, a top 100 guy at 1B/DH?
Keith Law: Sounds like he’s a catcher, which makes him a top 50ish guy for me.

Rich Campbell: Of the A’s young position players, who will be viable big leaguers in 5 years? Tyler Soderstrom (21 years old), Lawrence Butler (22), Jordan Diaz (22), Zack Gelof (23), Esteury Ruiz (24), Nick Allen (24), Shea Langeliers (25)?
Keith Law: I feel best about Gelof (bat) and Langeliers (glove) on that list.

Alex: Is Steele one of the guys you’ve missed on the most? 2020 you said he was a 2 pitch reliever.
Keith Law: In 2020 he wasn’t throwing a cutter. I’m fine saying I’m wrong, but he’s not the same guy now that he was in 2020.

Mike: I am infatuated with Nolan Schanuel. Do you think he can tap into meaningful powet?
Keith Law: Some power, not elite power, I think.

Guest: should Colson Montgomery be in line to start next year in Chicago?
Keith Law: I could go either way on this. He missed so much time this year that I don’t think they need to rush him. I’d probably vote for starting him in AAA with the intention for him to stay there for two months or so.

Romorr: I remember a write up you did about Beavers, and it seems since then, he’s taken off a bit. Have you seen him recently, and is there anything different? Surprised the power hasn’t shown up in Bowie yet.
Keith Law: Haven’t seen him recently, sorry.

Kevin: Kyle Teal opening day catcher in 2025 or is that too aggressive?
Keith Law: Any other position I’d say fine, but catching is a much harder job and they may be less inclined to push him.
Keith Law: There’s just way more to learn to be a big-league catcher than to be a big-league anything else.

Hank: What should the Braves do with Vaughn Grissom?
Keith Law: Seems like a trade piece for them.

DNL: Ronnie Mauricio is hitting the ball hard in his cup of coffee, but he’s not getting a lot of lift on the ball. Small sample size, I know, but is his AAA power going to translate to the Majors?
Keith Law: Yes, the power is real. His wrists are so loose and strong that I don’t think he’ll ever have a lot of consistency to the launch angle, though.

DJ: I hate having to ask this, but can we hopefully assume that Urias is fully done, as in will never put on an MLB uniform again?
Keith Law: Assuming the latest allegations are true, then yes, I think this would be the end of the road for him. Let’s say MLB finds sufficient cause to suspend him – he’s probably out for all of next year, and no team is going to rush to sign him after two confirmed DV events, even if he avoids legal consequences. Maybe he works his way back through Japan or another non-MLB league. He got a second chance. If this allegation is true, then what reason would any team have to believe he won’t do this again and again?

Guest: Given that the Phillies play as a 95-win team with Schwarber batting leadoff, are they committed to the bit or is that the best spot for him in their lineup?
Keith Law: Correlation is not causation.

Dave C: How appealing is the Guardians managerial job?  Any thoughts on where they might turn to replace Tito?
Keith Law: Appealing because the front office is considered a good one to work with/for, and there’s certainly some talent there. A bit less than other jobs because the ownership won’t spend. I haven’t looked into candidates, sorry.

Steve O: Is Ben Rice an MLB level talent and does he have a position?
Keith Law: Not really, and no position.

DNL: The Mets are obviously out of it. How important is it for them to get the kids (Alvarez, Baty, Mauricio, Vientos) as close to 100% playing time here on out? Is it a big failure if Showalter doesn’t do that?
Keith Law: I’m in favor of playing the kids as much as possible.

Leo: How the heck did Kyle Teel make it to the Red Sox? He looks like a major leaguer already.
Keith Law: I don’t understand why he and Matt Shaw slid out of the top 10. I had them ranked 6 and 7 in the draft and I know plenty of scouts who saw them in a similar light, probably more for Teel than Shaw. (I had a few guys tease me about how highly I ranked Shaw before the draft. I just really believe in the bat.)

SJ: Long term, do you take Jordan Lawler over Volpe? Do both stick at SS?
Keith Law: I think they have an even chance to stick at short but Volpe is more likely to get that opportunity. If you saw that play Lawlar made last night, though, you see why I don’t want Arizona to rush him off the position. Probably leaning Lawlar overall at this point but it’s close.

Ed: Is Owen Caissie getting close to the top 100 prospects list?  K’s are obviously a concern but he’s still putting up decent OBP and power numbers.
Keith Law: No. This can’t be a serious question.

Mike: Zack Litell had another nice outing. What do you make of him?
Keith Law: Could be a back-end starter. He’s been a bit lucky on BIP, but we’ve seen plenty of guys hang around as starters because they post super low walk rates like he does, which means even the higher HR rates that often come with that are less damaging.

Ruben Amaro (Renaissance Man): Who would you bet on to have a brighter future, Aidan Miller or Justin Crawford?
Keith Law: Crawford is only five months older and has better tools.

Frank: Is Henry Davis going to be a RF long term or does he eventually move back behind the plate?
Keith Law: In the absence of Endy Rodriguez, Davis is probably still catching full-time.

Tracy: Keith, you were somewhat critical about the Nats decision to move Crews from Low A to AA without going to Wilmington (high A).  However, you had mentioned some time ago that balls fly out of Wilmington’s stadium (and therefore a reason *not* to send top pitching prospects there).  Could it be that the Nats didn’t want Crews to become less selective in his swings because it’s easier to hit home runs there?   Thanks in advance.
Keith Law: That’s incorrect – Wilmington is a tough place to homer, while Harrisburg is slightly homer-friendly.

Ken: NL CY, who ya got? Am I wrong to think it’s a 5-6 person race?
Keith Law: Agreed, even trimming the ballot to 5 would be difficult, and I don’t think that race is close to settled. I have NL RoY this year.

Eric: Can the Dodgers have enough starting pitching for the playoffs without Buehler and assumedly Urias?
Keith Law: I wonder what Buehler’s role will be after his rehab. Maybe they’ll let him go a few innings per outing with long rest? Anyway, the short answer is yes, I think they can.

Matt: Is there a team other than the Angels that will allow Otahni to be a 2 way player if he signs with them?
Keith Law: All.

DNL: DJ Stewart: Late bloomer or Mike Jacobs 2.0?
Keith Law: More Jacobs.

Tyler Y: Any chance Gelof’s start is anything but SSS?
Keith Law: I’m in. He can hit.

Tim: With Patrick Bailey establishing himself as the Giants long term catcher, what would you do with Joey Bart?  Does he have any value at this point?  Seems like a change of organizations maybe his best option at this time.
Keith Law: Yes and I think a lot of teams would still value him as a backup for his defense/power with some chance he could be a starter elsewhere.

Ooglas: AL/NL MVPs if season ended today? Has to be Shohei/RAJr, no?
Keith Law: No. There’s this guy in LA, real good bowler…

johnny g: What do you think of the KW/Hahn situation, looking back? Too much dysfunction that resulted in Reinsdorf moving on, or was there a single incident like the Burger trade?
Keith Law: Reinsdorf is the source of the dysfunction.

Ed: Seems like the Cubs need to take a legitimate shot at re-signing Bellinger in the winter.  If they were to land him, though, is it as a 1b once PCA comes up?
Keith Law: Seems like the best solution all around. They’re in a really good spot right now where they’re likely to have more players than lineup spots, and could use some of that position-player depth to swing a trade.
Keith Law: Someone asked me offline about Shaw’s eventual position. I’d consider moving Hoerner to third, where I think he’ll be just as good as he is at second, and put Shaw at the keystone.

Alex: How surprised are you with how well Patrick Bailey has played?  The defense is elite level.  The caught stealing rate is amazing especially considering the new rules.
Keith Law: He was considered a plus defender out of HS, then in college became more valued for the bat while scouts seemed to question the glove more. Maybe they undervalued the glove because he was hitting so well?

Nick V: Do you think there’s any significant benefit to expensive cast iron cookware (e.g. Le Creuset) or is cast iron cast iron?
Keith Law: Le Creuset is enameled cast iron, so it is coated with a very durable nonstick surface, making it very different from traditional cast iron. I own and use both – I used a LC Dutch oven last night, in fact – but you also don’t need to get the most expensive brand.

DNL: How much money does the injury cost Shohei Ohtani?
Keith Law: I wrote a whole column about that: https://klaw.me/3R28MP0

Henry: Do we have any data yet on how the pitch clock may be contributing to pitcher injuries? It seems like the pitcher injury rate is higher overall compared to previous seasons.
Keith Law: I don’t believe the pitcher injury rate is significantly higher than in previous seasons – and I haven’t seen data either way. There has been research pre-pitch clock indicating that it could lead to more injuries if pitchers didn’t ease up on the throttle.

addoeh: How excited are you for the Rugby World Cup?  Would your wife rather see Wales win the RWC or Eagles win the Super Bowl?
Keith Law: She’s in a meeting but I’m pretty sure she’d say the Eagles.

Sedona: Hey Keith.  What do you think about Kerry Carpenter’s breakout?  Is he for real?  Above avg regular?
Keith Law: I think the power/hit is real – low OBP slugger, average to 55 regular. 19th round!

John Cazale: Has Kevin Parada’s development been disappointing, or is it too soon to conclude anything?
Keith Law: Or he’s been fine? I’m not sure what’s disappointing.

Heather: What do you make of the Red Sox’ hitting/pitching mix in the minors?  Are they incapable, or unwilling, to develop any decent pitching?  The two decent guys they’ve come up with, Bello and Crawford, are holdovers from the Dombrowski Era, and there doesn’t seem to be anyone on the horizon.
Keith Law: They don’t seem to want to draft pitching, at least not high, and haven’t brought it in on the international side, at least not to the extent they’ve gone after bats. I understand that to some extent, because the attrition rate on pitchers is so high, but the game still does require pitching and they have next to none in their system. They do have a hell of a group of position player prospects, though. That Portland team is stacked right now, even without Mayer.

Paul: Keith, love all your books. Any plans for a future tome?
Keith Law: Working on something but no official plans yet.

Chad (STL): What do the Cardinals even do? It doesn’t seem like they have the guys coming. Nolan and Paul older, young bats not hitting and ownership that has always been scared to go much above where they are currently salary wise?
Keith Law: I thought trading Arenado would have been the best choice, but if they sign one good FA starting pitcher, is there any real reason they couldn’t contend next year?

Greasy Nick: Just wanted to say I appreciated your review of Trust! I enjoyed it quite a bit and am challenging myself to be a more frequent, thoughtful reader. Reading your review helped me think about the book differently, which is really helpful for building a habit!
Keith Law: you’re quite welcome! I like those book reviews to start conversations – reading is such a subjective experience that I enjoy hearing about how different books hit my readers differently.

Chris: Thoughts on Yanks moving Pereira, Wells, and esp Martian through the system and all the way to bigs?  Too aggressive or might as well?  Also has your opinion on Wells not being a C changed at all?
Keith Law: Wells can’t catch, and he’s probably a platoon bat. I thought the promotions of the two outfielders were a little aggressive, but Pereira’s on the 40 and I think Jasson has to go on this winter so it’s not the end of the world. More “what the heck” than WTF.

DNL: Mitch McConnell (81) froze twice and Nancy Pelosi (83) just announced she’d seek re-election. Putting the Presidential election aside, how should citizens ensure that leader step aside later in their careers?
Keith Law: Dianne Feinstein’s case is the worst of all. She needs to resign yesterday. The system is rigged to keep politicians in their jobs as long as they want them.

addoeh: For Jeremy going to Chicago.  I tried Kasama, a Michelin starred Filipino restaurant a few weeks ago and thought it was really good.  The chicken adobo was excellent.
Keith Law: Call now to try to get in. That restaurant was on The Bear and apparently it’s impossible to get in now.

Jim: Has Johan Rojas done enough in 100 PA to take over full time in CF for the Phils in ’24?
Keith Law: I like Rojas but that’s a hard no.

Ryan: Keith, as best as I can recall the Diamondbacks haven’t been able to convert a pitching prospect into a successful major league pitcher in quite some time now, and the early returns on Pfaadt/Nelson/Jameson aren’t exactly promising on this front. What is your level of concern on these three? Do you think maybe having launching pad environments in Reno and Amarillo at the AAA and AA levels plays some part in this organizational difficulty?
Keith Law: They are early returns, and that’s the most salient part of your question. None of those guys has pitched that much in the majors yet, and guys do adjust and change over time.

Henry: Is Manfred ever going to get off his high horse about baseball stadiums producing local economic growth? It simply doesn’t.
Keith Law: Of course not. He’s not paid to tell the truth. He’s paid to increase the financial well-being of the 30 owners who employ him. If that means lying about decades of economic research showing that sports stadia do not produce local economic growth, so be it.

Sedona: What is the most likely scenario for Michael Busch?  Traded?  3B of the future?
Keith Law: Seems like he’s headed for a trade, no? Not basing that on gossip or anything concrete.

Tom: Hey Keith, been enjoying your content (sports and non-sports) for years, much appreciate it!  Thoughts on Chiam Bloom potentially being out of Boston this offseason and that team’s direction as a whole?  He’s done well with the ML system, trades have been mixed but he seems reluctant to add in free agency as most big market teams do.  Or is that ownership more likely?
Keith Law: I do not understand the ire towards Bloom. The position-player depth in their farm system has improved substantially just in the last six months, and I think the FA reticence you cite is from ownership, not him.

Sedona: Do you buy Frasso as a starter?  Has River Ryan confirmed your outlook by his performance this yr?  Regular starter?
Keith Law: If you watch Frasso, you’ll see why it’s hard to project him as a starter. All in on Ryan as a starter, though.

Zirinsky: Keith: Lots of “the Yankees are too analytics focused” in the NY media. This is dopey but do you hear anything around the game that validates this in any way?
Keith Law: I think that is a valid criticism at a very micro level that is getting blown up by writers who lack the curiosity to understand what they’re talking about. The Yankees may be focusing a little too much on the wrong metrics. That is not “too analytics focused.” This is a quest for knowledge that will see a lot of teams chase the wrong things. The Cubs bet big on the pitch metrics around Cade Horton’s breaking ball last June, and it had a chance to blow up spectacularly. It didn’t, but that’s the kind of risk you’ll see teams take as data and our analysis of it continue to grow and evolve.

TomBruno23: I have a friend, let’s call him Sean, who is very concerned about Chase Davis’ performance so far in the FSL. What can I tell him to assuage his worries?
Keith Law: The FSL is a pretty lousy place to hit.

TomBruno23: Are you an Immaculate Gridder?
Keith Law: I am not, sorry.

Jon V: Thoughts on what Cleveland is doing? They seem to be all over the place and are now giving ABs to guys like Calhoun and Laureano who have a very small chance of impacting the 2024 roster.
Keith Law: A little confused by the seemingly contradictory directions they’re taking. I also don’t get playing Arias at SS over Rocchio.

Kevin: If Wander never plays again, is that the biggest waste of talent you have ever seen?
Keith Law: That phrasing makes me a little uncomfortable … I guess if you’re saying is that the most talent to go unfulfilled, yeah, he would be up there.

Jackie: When I was a kid, we did the Chevy Chase vacation, and loaded up the station wagon to drive from Massachusetts to Disney World and back one summer.  On our way down, my dad pulled off I-95 unexpectedly, pulled into a parking lot, and said, “All right, everybody out!”  We got out of the car, confused, and Dad said, “All right, you can tell everyone you’ve been to Delaware.  There’s no reason to ever come back here.  Back in the car!”  And we drove on.
Keith Law: He was so wrong. Winterthur, Nemours, several art museums, the Blue Rocks, the beaches, Market Street in Wilmington… hey, we even have a murderer on the loose just over the state line!

Ken: NL CY follow-up: how does Strider trail two of his fellow Atlanta pitchers in WAR, is the ERA that big a component?
Keith Law: Isn’t he leading in fWAR? I haven’t looked in a few days. rWAR is ERA-based, fWAR is component-based.

wickethewok: Any interest in Baldur’s Gate 3? I recall you being a fan of a previous iteration
Keith Law: Yes but I’m terrified to start it and lose 80-100 hours of my life.

Bob: Crews’ timeline the same as Skenes’ – next June?
Keith Law: He gets there sooner, IMO. Wouldn’t shock me if he debuted this month.

Marani: So, which B- two-time All-Star from the 80s or 90s gets into the Hall of Fame this winter?  I can’t believe we haven’t enshrined Scott Cooper yet.
Keith Law: Bob Knepper is disappointed you didn’t push for him.

Expos: Have you been to Montreal recently? Any good food recommendations?
Keith Law: No, sorry. Been 25 years, I think.

Nick: What are Os doing to be hitting on so many of their hitting prospects they draft
Keith Law: They draft and develop well. It’s a combination of things.

TomBruno23: Credit to Nick Ahmed for maxing out his MLB career. 3rd all time in games played by a UConn Huskie (Walt Dropo, George Spinger) and over 500 more than the next guy on the list (Roberto Hernandez).
Keith Law: Yep. Saw him in college, never thought he’d get this kind of run as a position player. Pretty good reliever in college too.

TomBruno23: Is Kade Kretschmar getting close to the top 100 prospects list? Already up to Peoria after signing as an undrafted free agent in July.
Keith Law: No, not in the least. He’s 23.

DevilInLaw: is Elly De La Cruz a future superstar or is the bloom a bit off that rose at this point?
Keith Law: Has superstar ceiling.

Scott U: Is Mason Miller a top end SP or a back end SP at the end of the day?
Keith Law: Reliever. No history of staying healthy. It’s a lot of shoulder stuff, too.

Bobby Cox: LAD just announced Buehler is done for year
Keith Law: Ah, well. Nevertheless

Steve O: Is Drew Thorpe a Guy, or is he more of a 5th starter/good reliever?
Keith Law: Could see a fifth starter there, but the FB is too light to see league-average.

Jon V: Bibee or Williams?
Keith Law: I’m a Bibee guy.

DNL: If you were a closer, what would your walkup song be?
DOB: Keith Law is always pro NY or LA
Keith Law: right, those are the same city
Keith Law: christ, how tiny is your world view if you think someone is biased towards NY and LA

John 2: Kevin Alcantara basically had the same season at a higher level this year as last year. Is it just a matter of time before he breaks out? Is getting stronger really the key, or does the hit tool need to improve?
Keith Law: I like the trend but yes, I think there is (and needs to be) some more strength. He’s gained muscle and improved his body control and coordination so the swing is far more consistent. He still has room for 20+ more pounds and that should be the kind that leads to power.

Matt: Bernie a 80 tool guy? https://twitter.com/janeosanders/status/1700181183567433976
Keith Law: Hey, that’s pretty impressive. I hope I move that well at that age.

Jason: In response to the question about our gerontocracy, thanks for not advocating for term limits that just shift power to bureaucrats, lobbyists, and career staff. At least voters have the option to vote for somebody else (especially in Senate races that can’t be gerrymandered)
Keith Law: Agreed. Term limits are a bad solution.

Jon: All signs are pointing towards Steve Cohen finally being able to hire David Stearns.  What do you see him being able to do with all of the resources the Mets (finally) have at their disposal?
Keith Law: I mean, the Mets went out and spent a bunch of money last winter and that didn’t help. They’ve drafted extremely well over the last decade. What did Stearns do while running the Brewers that would apply to the Mets?

TomBruno23: KLaw I was totally kidding about Kretschmar playing off that one from earlier.
Keith Law: oh sorry, I often can’t tell when questions are sarcastic on here.

Paul: No idea whether the pizza is any good or not, but its great to see customers supporting Dragon Pizza and standing up to that A$$hole.
Keith Law: Yep. Nobody likes a bully.

Yinka Double Dare: I’d much rather hang out in the Delaware beach towns than the Jersey ones.
Keith Law: Agreed. Visit The Station on Kings in Lewes for lunch and take it to a picnic on the beach.
Keith Law: OK, I went a little long this week since it had been ages since my last chat. Thanks so much for all of your questions. My column on guys I was wrong about should run next week, followed by my minor league player of the year column, and then my hypothetical awards ballots in the final week of the season. Stay safe.

Check out my redraft of the 2013 MLB draft class if you’re a subscriber to the Athletic. The companion piece, looking at the first-round picks from 2013 who didn’t pan out, will run on Friday.

Keith Law: Pick me up and shake the doubt. Klawchat.

Ben: favorite restaurant in Newark DE?
Keith Law: I almost never eat down there – there’s plenty up here by us in Wilmington, or in Kennett Square if we want something a little different.

Adam: Is Orlando Arcia’s season real? Or SSS
Keith Law: A .394 BABIP isn’t sustainable, especially not for a guy whose career BABIP in the majors was around .290 coming into this year. That said, I think a little of the improvement is real this year – he’s making a lot more hard contact than ever, after already showing some improvement in that area in 2022, so I would buy him as a regular, just not a star like he’s been so far this year.

Adam: When Acuna goes 40/60 while hitting .320 and winning MVP will that be the greatest single season ever?
Keith Law: No.

ChicagoSteve: Hate to be a total homer, but I have to ask about George Wolkow’s draft prospects. How does his commitment to South Carolina affect the likelihood that he’ll be drafted? Any insights into his signability?
Keith Law: I don’t discuss signability unless it’s very public already – and in many cases what I know about signability is hearsay to the point that I can’t be certain it’s accurate.

Dave: I read that Dylan Crews pulled himself out of the draft when coming out of high school. Do you remember where he was graded from a talent perspective? Would he have been a top-10 pick? First round? Later? Thank you for all the great insights about the draft.
Keith Law: I saw him in HS, right before the world ended. He came into the year as a likely first-rounder, probably top 15, and then got off to a subpar start with more swing and miss than usual, only to have his season end due to the pandemic. The thought at the time he withdrew was that he knew he wasn’t going to be drafted as high as he wanted/expected so he chose to skip it entirely. Can’t say it was a bad decision.

addoeh: Looking forward to the mushroom and truffle pizza at Serious Pie in Seattle?
Keith Law: I am not familiar with this – haven’t been to Seattle in over 20 years, actually.

Brendan B: No question. Just screaming into the void for Bo Naylor to catch 6 days/week in MLB and Amed Rosario to stop blocking 5 shortstop prospects in Cleveland.
Keith Law: Yep. Naylor and Rocchio and LFG.

Greasy Nick: Interesting to see PCA slightly downgraded by some folks (presumably) due to the swing and miss in his game. Do you think he has the chops to be an above average hitter?
Keith Law: Not sure what you mean – I haven’t downgraded him anywhere. He’s driving the ball more this year, if anything.

Slothburg: Victor Bericoto & Tyler Fitzgerald both having great starts to the season. Any chance either of them profile as regulars at their respective positions?
Keith Law: Fitzgerald was 25 in AA – I’ve seen him, don’t think he’s more than an up and down guy. I haven’t seen Bericoto.

Adam: Has AJ Minter exceeded your expectations? I understand he’s a reliever but during his rise through the minors you were pretty low on him I feel like
Keith Law: No, I said he’d be a reliever and he has been.

Mike: Think the nats should give cj abrams some time in aaa?
Keith Law: I don’t think that would do him any good. He needs to get stronger, not to go face lesser competition.

Matt W: What do you see as Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s likely upside? MLB regular, bench player..?
Keith Law: Platoon or part-time player. I think RH breaking stuff is going to give him a ton of trouble in the majors.

Chris: Would Giolito as a rental fetch a top 100 prospect at the deadline?
Keith Law: I think so, but I also don’t spend any time asking FO people about hypothetical trade value. It’s more from seeing what comparable guys returned in past years.

Deke: So … Wingspan. My brother’s family and my family have gotten together to play board games regularly. Catan, Carcassonne, Ticket to Ride, we love that sort. We tried Wingspan a while back and the whole collection of us could not make heads or tails of the instructions. It was a huge letdown after seeing you and so many others talk it up as the best game ever. Is there some trick we needed to try? We couldn’t even figure out how to get started in a “start playing and you’ll figure it out” sort of way.
Keith Law: I would suggest finding the Watch It Played video on youtube for it – Rodney Smith does those, in conjunction with the publishers, and I think he has the best and clearest instructional videos out there. Wingspan is daunting to start, but actually not that complex to play once you get going. It’s just of information to gather a lot up front.

Mike: When does ben brown get the call? Is he more of a mid rotation sp or back end?
Keith Law: Could be mid rotation, of course back end more likely.

Michael: Hey Klaw- wondering if you’ve had a chance to see Orion Kerkering? Or heard anything from scouts. Any chance there is something there other than an 80 grade name? Could he be a GUY? Thanks!
Keith Law: Straight reliever, huge spin on two pitches, command and control very questionable. I’d move him up quickly though – he’s just getting guys out with pure stuff now, not being forced to work on locating.

Mike: Is Trey Lipscomb a potential regular?
Keith Law: No.

Aaron C.: Please build us your perfect sandwich. Type of bread, condiments, protein(s), etc. Spare no details, klaw.
Keith Law: Something like this: Turkey on any sort of rye, some kind of flavored mayo like chipotle or sriracha or failing that a little mayo and mustard, lettuce, pickles, pickled onions, roasted red peppers, oregano, salt. If I’m home, I use Penzey’s sandwich sprinkle.

Ryan: Small sample size but Salas almost has a .400 OBP in Low A as a 17 year old. Do you think he could make the majors by the time he’s 20?
Keith Law: You’re cherrypicking a little there – he’s drawing walks at a crazy clip (over 20%), but the rest of the line is just fine until you consider his age. I do think he can see the majors by the time he’s 20, but I don’t think this small sample so far has changed anything except maybe to indicate that he’s not overmatched like most 17-year-olds would be.

Matt: Not an A’s fan, but why can’t MLB force the owner to sell? I remember when Oakland had the highest payroll in baseball back in the Bash Brothers days. They clearly have the fanbase.
Keith Law: On what grounds?

Alex in Austin: Would you move Luis Matos in your rankings at all based on the first 2 months performance?
Keith Law: Less on performance specifically but on health & return to how he looked in 2021 pre-injury when he did make my top 100.

Guest: I doubt that Vientos is a star but why bring him up just to sit him? Why not leave him in the minors if they aren’t willing to play him?
Keith Law: I wonder if this is another case where the FO brought up a guy Buck doesn’t like so he won’t play him.

Mac: Probably didnt make the cut for your first round misses piece but, as a Stanford fan, what was the downfall of Austin Wilson?
Keith Law: He wasn’t a first-rounder, so no. I thought the swing never recovered post-Stanford. I know some scouts who never thought he was that advanced a hitter.

Alex: Have you changed your long term outlook on Kyle Bradish based on his performance this year and last, or do you still see him as a future reliever?
Keith Law: No change. He had a nearly 5 ERA last year, so I’m not sure how that would change anything. Baltimore’s defense helps him a lot (which is to the team’s credit).

Andrew: I read a stat that the Tigers have produced 20 less WAR from their hitting than the next worse club. I’m really hoping Langford falls to 3, as a fan tired of bad at bats.
Keith Law: They have to take the right guy, and then develop him. I was never wild about Torkelson, but come on – I don’t think anybody thought he’s struggle as much as he has (acknowledging that he’s started to hit more this month).

Aaron C.: Almost time for the 2023 half-year award. Best meal you’ve had so far this year? Best dessert?
Keith Law: Best meal I’ve had this year was at Talula’s Table in Kennett Square. Honorable mentions to Laser Wolf in Philly, Juniper & Ivy in San Diego, Baba in St. Petersburg. Best dessert was the coffee ganache-topped ‘yodel’ at Juniper & Ivy.

Dana: Should the Yankees bite the bullet and swap Volpe for Peraza, at least in the short term?
Keith Law: Not a bad idea. Also, again, a reminder that making major roster decisions off spring training performance is generally not a good idea. It’s like hiring off the interview rather than the resume.

Dallas: Liover Pegiero seems to be heating up in AA and is still only 22. Do you foresee him having a future in the big leagues, and what should the pirates do with their glutony of middle infield prospects?
Keith Law: I like Peguero but he’s repeating the level, so we need to see him carry over these improvements to AAA.

James: Are we concerned about Emmanuel Rodriguez’ K rate yet? Any change on his potential outcomes or still too early to make any difference?
Keith Law: He was promoted to high A after just 47 games in low A and then a season-ending injury. And he’s only 20. I’d have a lot more patience with him.

Jesse B: Any concern with Kevin Alcantara not walking or hitting hrs?
Keith Law: More the BB and K numbers. The homers will come. Still young, but not what I was hoping for.

Mike: Favorite east coast beach?
Keith Law: I am not a beach person, sorry.

Ryan: Where do you think Tanner Witt fits in this upcoming draft? Obviously he hasn’t looked incredible this early off TJ, though it seems like what you would expect. Dodgers first pick(seems very Dodgersy) to the Comp B round seem realistic for him?
Keith Law: I think something like that – some team hoping they’re nabbing a first-rounder on the cheap.

Duder: How far does Jacob Wilson drop?
Keith Law: Who says he’s dropping?

Duder: Who’s got the most helium and could slip into the 1st round who you never would have guessed would get there at the start of the year?
Keith Law: That is easily Joe Whitman at Kent State.

HH: I have heard much less about pitcher abuse by college coaches the last couple of years. Have thing actually improved?
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely. I think one big reason is they know people are watching, including scouts and recruits.

Chris: How excited should I get as a Brewers fan about Jacob Misiorowski’s early-career returns? Can be become an elite pitching prospect?
Keith Law: I wrote him up last month – that delivery is not going to let him be a starter. https://bit.ly/3BFXPtJ

JR: Remember all the weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth about universal DH? And now you hear almost nothing about it? Guess it didn’t ruin the game after all!
Keith Law: Yep. Now they’re complaining about other things that might “ruin” the game.

chauncey: what is wrong with the mets?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s one single thing but perhaps betting that much on older starting pitchers wasn’t a great plan.

Brian in NoVA: At what point does Baltimore start thinking of trading about some of their position players prospects to get some pitching? It feels like they have their window of contention is getting close.
Keith Law: Now, right? I feel like this July is that time.

Reedy: Is there anything to fix with Cam Collier? He oozes talent but the numbers are not following thus far.
Keith Law: He’s fine. He’s younger than many high school guys in this draft.

Jason: thoughts on Roman Anthony?\
Keith Law: Interesting choice to promote a guy based primarily on his batted-ball data without expecting to see more in-game results. He was a really interesting upside play in last year’s draft, though, so I believe it’s real and he’s going to be one of their top prospects by year-end.

Guest: With the passing of Cormac McCarthy, what are your thoughts on his legacy? I know you have a couple of his books on your all-time favorite list. Will he be regarded as one of the best American writers?
Keith Law: I think he already is. Look at a lot of what was written about him this past week. And I know Harold Bloom had already said McCarthy was among the American greats.

Drew: Sheehan, Frasso, and Knack have all been outstanding. Do any of them project as an ace? Or mid/back end guys?
Keith Law: If Sheehan sticks in the rotation, he’ll be an above-average one. The other two I think are very likely relievers, albeit good ones.

Teej: Are you making your way to San Diego this year? Any thoughts on Luis Matos that wasn’t already covered in your “just missed”?
Keith Law: I was out there in April. Matos looks completely healthy and like everything that was wrong last year, into the AFL, may just have been about being less than 100%.

Alex: Any sense of how the league values Jordan Westburg? Seems weird that the Orioles haven’t promoted him yet.
Keith Law: I agree that it’s weird that he and Ortiz are still in AAA. I understand Mateo provides a lot of value on defense, but he’s a .250 OBP guy. He might be the worst everyday hitter in baseball right now.

davealden53: Happy belated 50th.  How sustainable is Ezequiel Duran’s 2023 performance?  The BABiP shows some luck but not enough to explain his output.  And where will he play?
Keith Law: My only real question is whether a guy who’s this much of a free swinger will continue to get enough pitches to hit hard – and he does hit it hard, often – to keep this up.

Joshua: What are your thoughts on who Rizzo would take at #2 if both Crews and Skenes were available? Thanks!
Keith Law: I think they take Crews if he’s there, for a whole host of reasons, not least of which is that he’s the best player in the draft and I can’t think of a time when Rizzo had that opportunity and didn’t go for it. He took Strasburg and Harper and paid them accordingly. He took Rendon at 6 when Rendon came into that year as a probable 1-1 guy, or at least on the very short list, before he got hurt. Mike’s a scout at heart. He’s not passing on the best talent.

Alex in Austin: You have been pretty tough on UVA development in the past, particularly with pitchers.  Is there a specific reason that many of their arms improve after leaving Charlottesville?
Keith Law: For years they’ve pushed pitchers to all adopt the same ‘crouch’ delivery, and it doesn’t work for most guys. So then pitchers like Mike Vasil get into pro ball and take off because they can restore their old deliveries or at least find something that works better for them.

rob: have you watched enough of Pierce Bennett from Wake forest to know if he’s a an MLB prospect?
Keith Law: He’ll be a nice senior sign next month. I have seen him but I don’t know if he’s more than that – it’s very much a contact approach without any juice.

Jon: Favorite McCarthy novel?  RIP.
Keith Law: The Road. Although that’s more of a “I respect the hell out of this novel” than something I would say is a great summer read.

Jason: What can Georgia expect from Wes Johnson as a head coach?
Keith Law: Really have no idea – what makes you a good pitching coach doesn’t necessarily make you a good head coach/manager.

Wampus Cat: Any starting pitching help in the minors not named Andrew Abbott that might be able to help the Reds’ stay relevant in a weak NL Central this season?
Keith Law: Not this year – I think they’ve tried everyone. Some bright spots further down like Lyon Richardson but he’s not coming up in 2023.

Dodgers: Outside of changing ownership, what lessons could an also-ran like the Rockies learn from the Dodgers?  The Dodgers seem to have mastered — or as close to it — player evaluation and development.
Keith Law: I know Schmidt just became GM less than a year ago, so I’d like to give him more time, but under the previous regime they just fell further and further behind other clubs in basically anything R&D.

Guest: Where is Westburg’s likely defensive home: 3B or 2B?
Keith Law: I think 3B but also think he can handle 2B.
Keith Law: They’ve done a really good job with him.

Matt: Signs you are in a good restaurant? For me, it’s no salt and pepper on the table because the food is going to be seasoned properly.
Keith Law: Fair.

Brent: Wait, no cheese on your sandwich?
Keith Law: Correct. A lot of that is being hilariously lactose intolerant – literally had a GI doctor laugh at my test results – so I never acquired the taste for most of the cheeses you’d put on a sandwich.

Maitan: What went wrong with Kevin Maitan?
Keith Law: He peaked around age 14.

TheRealHenryFPotter: Other than C. Montgomery, assuming he ever gets healthy, do the White Sox have ANYONE on the farm who can be considered A GUY? And do you have any insight as to why they have such a hard time developing pitching at the minor league level?
Keith Law: I would like to think Bryan Ramos could be now that he’s back playing. They haven’t drafted a lot of pitching high, have they? And not a college arm in a while.

RA: How strong of a case is Junior Caminero making for your mid season top 25?
Keith Law: I do a midseason top 50 and he would be on that, I believe. That’s for after the draft … another reason I hate the late draft date, it pushes the post-draft prospect ranking too far back.

Guest: Two questions – is Skenes likely to go to the Washington Nationals and are there any board games on the ratification of the 19th Amendment that you can recommend?
Keith Law: That seems like a plug for Votes for Women!

Carrie: Thoughts on Daniel Lynch going forward?
Keith Law: He hasn’t looked like the same guy this year. Velocity down, fastball was always too true but it’s even more so now and it looks like his breaking pitches have backed up too.

Big Fan: Hi Keith, have you dug into what’s going on with Spencer Strider his last few starts?
Keith Law: Nope, sorry.

Austin: Who do the pirates take #1 overall?
Keith Law: I had them taking Crews in my last mock and I’ll have another one up next week.

G: Are the Cubs doing things right? Entering the 3rd year of a sell off is excruciating from a fans perspective
Keith Law: In general, yes.

Jon: How is the college process going?  Any suggestions for a parent?  Not looking forward to this.
Keith Law: It’s certainly overwhelming. There’s too much information out there and I know I am not well-equipped to process it all. We’re lucky that my daughter has a counselor at her school who is an expert and is helping guide us through the process – I can see now why parents pay for that kind of service.

Reid: I love watching Bobby Miller pitch and I re-read your LAD prospect writeup in February and found it to be very accurate.  It’s interesting to me that his performance has improved since being promoted, against some good competition too.  Do you think this is because of better pitch sequencing, an adjustment to the slider, and the early shoulder injury affecting him in AAA?  4 starts is not the biggest sample size but do you think he’ll continue to pitch at this level for the rest of the season?
Keith Law: The safe bet is to say he’ll regress somewhat the rest of the season because he’s been so good. I also think the environment in AAA is so different now for several reasons that the stat lines there are less reliable than ever.

Justin Y: Thoughts on Carson Whisenhunt, starter or reliever?
Keith Law: Starter.

Guest: Would you be interested in replacing Padma?
Keith Law: Did she step down?

Jay: Have you checked your fridge lately?  Is your milk, ketchup, and mustard, and eggs woke?  Seriously, my head explodes knowing that there are about 50% of people who think this is a major concern.
Keith Law: I regret to announce that (checks notes) Organic Valley has fallen.

Subscriber: Care to share your opinion on the recent layoffs at The Athletic?
Keith Law: Really?

Todd Boss: Wyatt Langford Question: if he’s really that good a CF, why wasn’t he playing there full time all season?  Why is he playing a corner so Florida can give the majority of its CF innings to a redshirt freshman hitting .230?
Keith Law: He’s not that good a CF and don’t believe anyone claiming the contrary. The hope is some pro coach(es) can help him become a CF, given his speed, but he’s not a good CF right now.

Ben: The Twins continue to bench or pinch hit Alex Kirilloff against LH … He’s never had poor splits and has probably been the best bat on the roster all year. Kyle Garlick doesnt deserve ABs over him due to splits. Any idea what they are doing ???
Keith Law: It’s disappointing – he’s old enough now to just let him play every day.

Carl: Have we seen enough from Nick Yorke this year to say he’s back on track?
Keith Law: Absolutely.

Drew: Has Chase Hampton jumped Warren in prospect status? He seems to have some real helium.
Keith Law: I think he’s probably their best SP prospect now.

Noah: Does Moises Ballesteros have a chance to catch in the majors? His future outlook?
Keith Law: He can hit, but that body is going to make it very, very tough for him to stay anywhere on the field.

Jon: Soccer has for years been dealing with sovereign wealth fund ownership, and now golf (the sport) is practically owner by sovereign wealth.  To this point, the major American sports have avoided this.  With team prices continuing to increase, do you think it is inevitable?  Hope not.
Keith Law: I do.

Chris: Just reading Chase Hampton has been moved to AA, thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Saw him in May and wrote him up here: https://klaw.me/42co3ih

Guest: Will Encarnation Strand be in your mid season top 50?
Keith Law: No.

Matt: Elly DLC came in firing on all cyclinders, but was cooled off by Royals pitching???  What are your thoughts on his start?
Keith Law: Contact is going to be an issue for him for a while – he got to the majors really fast, and I think there’s going to be a lot of adjustments going forward to pitch types & locations. He’s aggressive because he’s so talented but MLB pitchers can take advantage of that.

TheRealHenryFPotter: Follow up to the White Sox minor league pitching question: in recent years they’ve drafted Matthew Thompson, Drew Dalquist, and Jared Kelley (High School, but still) and they all seem to have plateaued, and not very high. The exception is Garrett Crochet, who I don’t feel they developed… he was drafted ready for his role.
Keith Law: And Kelley was always pretty high risk. Still, that’s just 3 HS arms, not that many to draw any broad conclusions.

Nathanael: Hi Keith, do you ever get down to Richmond, VA for Double A scouting?  Great town for food if you’re ever out here.  Great work on the redraft today as usual.
Keith Law: Last year, to see Kyle Harrison.

Colin: Who of the dodgers pitchers left in the minors has the best chance to become an ace or even a #2?
Keith Law: River Ryan.

shaff: Which happens first: I-95 fully reopens or Jackson Holliday makes the majors?
Keith Law: Given the incentives to reopen the highway and the incentives to hold guys down in the minors, I say I-95 reopens.

Nathanael: With the A’s pending departure, I wonder why the Giants were so adamant about the potential move to San Jose in 2013.  Wouldn’t moving further away to San Jose have been preferable to playing 15 minutes away in Oakland.  Vegas just seems like an awful market.
Keith Law: I’ll believe they’re moving when they actually play a game there. This is a disaster on many levels – Vegas will be the smallest media market in MLB, they already have two major sports teams there and at least one minor one I know of (not counting the Aviators), and the whole area is going to run out of water.

Appa Yip Yip: I really want the anti-woke people to learn that Glenn Burke was the co-creator of the high five along with Dusty Baker. Glenn was gay, high fiving is gay, I didn’t make the rules they gotta boycott high fives now.
Keith Law: There’s a kids’ book about it – I think it’s called A High Five for Glenn Burke.

Howie: Keith – when in Seattle consider getting the Caribbean Roast sandwich at Un Bien in Ballard. Amazing baguette, fall apart (not shredded) pork, thick caramelized onions, garlic aioli, romaine and pickled jalapenos. A messy sandwich, but one to remember.
Keith Law: That sounds great, and like it would be the only meal I would eat that day.

Danny: I asked a couple weeks ago but you responded Austin Wells just got back from injury. Now he’s had 30+ games in AA and has 340ish AB at that level. Is defense the only thing keeping him down and shouldn’t the Yankees at least start trying at him at different positions in that case?
Keith Law: That’s less than a full season in AA, and even this year in a small sample he’s still punching out 35% of the time vs LHP. I do agree they should try him more at first base, at least. I wonder if they’re leaving him in AA to try to keep up some trade value.

Shawn: What’s the appropriate level of skepticism for a pitcher under 6 feet tall?
Keith Law: To me it’s mostly a function of how the stuff plays from that height, rather than an injury issue. I don’t know of any evidence that being sub 6′ makes a guy more injury prone. I do know a lot of those guys don’t work out as starters because they don’t get good angle on the fastball. But guys who sink it or otherwise get a big vertical break can mitigate that.

Danny: I think you had Brock Porter going to the Yankees in your last predraft mock last year and we now know Porter signed for almost a million more the Yankees gave Spencer Jones. Do you know if the Yankees had Porter higher than Jones if the money was equal?
Keith Law: I think I had them on Jones somewhere – maybe the prior mock? – so he may very well have been their target all along.
Keith Law: Gotta run but thanks as always for all of the questions and for reading. I’ll try to fit in a Q&A next week around the mock, and I’ll have a third mock the week after that, and before you know it it’ll be draft day. Take care & stay safe.

Keith Law: May the lines sag heavy and deep tonight. Klawchat!

Dan: What to make about Torkelson? He’s just not gonna be a guy huh?
Keith Law: I don’t know what to make of him – he does make hard contact, enough that he should at least be hitting for more average and at least occasional power. I’ll say I was thrilled to see Riley Greene fulfilling my breakout prediction until this very unfortunate injury, not just for me or even for the kid, but because the Tigers need a development success story. Here’s hoping he’s the first of many. But Torkelson … I’m not giving up on him, at all, but I keep going back to when I saw him the first time and didn’t think the tools matched the huge production. I thought he was just a guy, a solid college hitter without the huge upside you’d want at 1-1. I figured I got him wrong.

J.P.: Happy birthday, Keith. Do you believe Josue DePaula is ready for the Cal League? What’s his ceiling?
Keith Law: I honestly can’t say if he’s ready or not – we have so little data of any sort, and when I saw him this spring all he did for me was walk.

Ross: Happy 50th Keith! Keep up the great work and thank you for attempting to use your platforms for the greater good as well. Many of us see you and appreciate you.
Keith Law: Thank you. And Happy Pride Month to all my readers.

Appa Yip Yip: What is Anthony Bass’s greater sin in the eyes of MLB, posting anti-LGBT propaganda, or the specific propaganda calling for the boycott of one of his own team’s biggest sponsors? Also shout out to the CN Tower crew that was some excellent trolling.
Keith Law: I don’t know what the league thinks, although history tells us going after corporate sponsors is not the smartest plan. But I don’t think MLB wants to be associated with anti-LGBT sentiment, either. The historical trend here is clear – public sentiment is shifting towards tolerance and acceptance, and away from bigotry, and away from religiosity in general, something that’s been happening for decades. Brands aren’t stupid. They follow the money.
Keith Law: I’m a little surprised Trevor Williams’s comments haven’t gotten more attention. I’m an ex-Catholic, and he pretty much got everything wrong.

JT: Ethan Salas’s campaign seems to have the momentum of a runaway freight train. Why is he so popular?
Keith Law: Heh. He might be the next Wander Franco. He’s got everything you want in a prospect that young.
Keith Law: I’m going to be fascinated to see how fast they move him. He’s an advanced defender and he’s bilingual, so two of the factors that can slow catching prospects down are already taken care of.

Brian: Do you think the breakout seasons for Estrada and Wade are real or will the come back down to earth?
Keith Law: Thairo? Not sustainable. Nice bench player, but the approach isn’t there, and he’s rocking a .371 BABIP that’s about 80 points above anything he’s done in the majors before. Lamonte Wade’s is a little more ‘real,’ and I think he could carve out a few years as a soft regular because he’s always had a decent approach and I think Kapler & co. do extremely well with those guys.

Brian: Is Luis Matos a top 50 prospect right now?
Keith Law: Let’s say he’s back on the top 100. I’m thrilled, really – liked him a ton going into last year, still saw the athleticism in the AFL.

Johnny Mo: Happy Birthday Keith! Nolan Gorman… Are the off-season changes to approach and swing mechanics legit or are we looking at a SSS?
Keith Law: I think he’s legit.

Guest: Happy Birthday Keith! Cubs fan here. What are your thoughts on last years Cubs draft so far? Horton, Ferris, and a few other pitchers have been looking good so far.
Keith Law: Horton’s really been up and down so far, and Ferris is throwing 3 innings a start. I think the jury is still out on those guys – or we should still have the opinions/outlooks we had coming out of the draft until we see a lot more from them.

Karl: Happy Birthday!  Thank you for all that you do.
Keith Law: Thank you!

Trey: Has Luis Matos showed enough this season to warrant a call up?
Keith Law: No. Way too little of a sample.

Benjamin: Thoughts on Jose Miranda & his future?
Keith Law: Victim of circumstance. He’s a regular for someone. Twins might just not have a place for him. Would really help if he had more (any) defensive value.

Tim: Have your EROD thoughts changed much since preseason?
Keith Law: He looked like the old E-Rod before the injury. I have no idea what to make of this particular issue with this finger, but if he recovers fully I see no reason he can’t be the same pitcher again.

Johnny Mo: Have you heard any industry chatter about what actually went down with Willson Contreras saga?
Keith Law: No, but I also haven’t asked anyone. Not really my beat.

Kevin W: You mentioned you eat worse traveling? Why is that? I tend to eat less calories on the road as I’m busy, less snacks, etc.
Keith Law: I often have to eat quickly to get to a game, or eat late after a game, which limits my options. And eating out almost always means more calories than when I eat at home.

Josh: Louie Varland & Bailey Ober — middle rotation guys? BOR?
Keith Law: Varland might prove me wrong. I didn’t think he was a long-term starter but he looks really, really good.

Keith: David Festa — just a guy, or a GUY?
Keith Law: I think just a guy.

Chuck: Have you heard any reports on Kristian Robinson’s progress? I’m rooting for him.
Keith Law: No but he homered last night and that’s great to see. He’s lost so much time, though, that it’s hard to see him ever recovering his prior prospect status.

Jay: Happy 200th birthday, Strong Bad!

Is there any reason for the A’s not to deal Brent Rooker for a horde of teenage lottery tickets?
Keith Law: No reason at all. Would be good for him too.

Kevin W: when should the reds trio be called up? Ces, Abbott, and dlc.
Keith Law: Abbott should be up already. I don’t think there’s a rush with Elly – his approach is still a work in progress – and I think Encarnacion-Strand is going to struggle big-time with big league breaking stuff.

Dave: How much should I believe in Ronny Mauricio’s breakout?
Keith Law: This may sound paradoxical, but I’m more inclined to believe in it because it’s not driven by a big bump in BB rate. Walks are way up in AAA because of the use of the automated system – last I looked it was 15% in the IL, 20% in the PCL, although that’s from at least two weeks back. Mauricio’s just making better contact. He might still come up and walk once a month, which isn’t great, but this looks way more like the Alfonso Soriano comp I put on him last year.

Max: Happy Birthday! Any thoughts on the Astros first base options?
Keith Law: They’re not going to bench Abreu, so I’m not sure what options they have. I hated that contract, and it’s biting them sooner than I expected.

Jobu: Happy Birthday! Friend is turning 50 later this month & was looking to gift him a really nice bottle of rum. He loves Ron Zacapa was wondering if you’ve had the Negra or XO? Or another comparable brand?
Keith Law: Ron Diplomatico Ambassador is probably the best rum I’ve ever had. Zacapa XO is excellent.  If you want something a little more affordable in that quality range, try Ron Zaya Gran Reserva.

Jason: From before this industry was your work, what is one of your greatest baseball memories?
Keith Law: I was at Jim Abbott’s no-hitter. Nothing will top that.

Zac: Is Colt Keith start to the season legit? Can he become a top 20 prospect before the end of the year?
Keith Law: He’s a legit hitter, not a top 20 prospect – that’s an extremely high bar.

Isaac: Has your view of Jonathan Clase changed? We could you see him ranking by mid season? Thanks Keith, love the chats!!! Happy birthday ? ?
Keith Law: Clase was my sleeper pick for the Mariners going into 2022, and he broke out halfway (to quote my own capsule from February), so my view on him has held steady. He’s legit. Probably a top 100 guy at this point.

Drew: Ceiling on Evan Carter?  Happy Birthday
Keith Law: Above-average regular in CF.

Josh: Hey Keith, what is wrong with Jordan Lawlar… should we be concerned? Also, is Brandon Pfaadt overrated or just needs to fine tune some things? his stuff looks pedestrian…
Keith Law: Lawlar’s 20 in AA. If he were destroying high A right now, which would be appropriate for his age, I don’t think there’d be any concerns. As for Pfaadt, I think he’s overusing the four-seamer right now. Stuff is far from “pedestrian,” though.

Guest: Happy Birthday!
Keith Law: thank you!

Deke: What’s your opinion on those “mental therapy by text” outlets? I think I could use a therapist in some form, but with the kids home for the summer and my spouse working banker’s house, finding time is real rough. Just don’t want to throw money after a joke of a service.
Keith Law: I had no trouble finding a real, PhD/PsyD-level therapist around here who’d do virtual meetings. That’s your best option.

Ken: Should we worry about grayson Rodriguez? I want to think a minor tinker is all that’s needed, he seemed like a sure bet to be a 1/2 in a mlb rotation
Keith Law: Yeah, he was never a sure bet for that. He’s had issues with the quality of his breaking stuff forever. I still think he’s going to be a mainstay in a rotation for a long time, but he’s a good example of how scouting the stat line can lead you to the wrong conclusions – what works in the minors doesn’t necessarily work in the majors. His slider especially backed up at the end of last year and it wasn’t more than a fringy pitch to begin with. The FB-CH is good enough for him to be a mid-rotation guy but he’ll need more to be a 2.

Darin: Could Spencer Horwitz help the Blue Jays in a reserve role? They need hitting and he seems to be the best of what they’ve got on the farm at the moment.
Keith Law: No. There’s really no place for a guy like him in the majors right now.
Keith Law: Although when you’re still wasting a roster spot on Cavan Biggio…

Ken: Would you consider Jackson Holliday the top prospect by the end of the season? Could he be right now??
Keith Law: I think he’s top 5 in baseball right now.

Matt W: Is there any possible justification to the Reds keeping Elly and CES in the minors while they have a 3rd catcher, Newman, Myers, and Benson wasting active roster spaces?
Keith Law: See above.
Keith Law: You don’t want to bring those guys up to struggle, or harm their development in any way.

Guest: Who has more upside Bryce or Mason Miller?
Keith Law: Bryce. Mason has no history of staying healthy and doesn’t have Bryce’s full arsenal.

Bob Pollard: What position do you think Elly de la Cruz ends up playing when he’s called up this year and beyond?
Keith Law: I have a hard time seeing him staying at SS long term but it’s not out of the question, and I think he could probably play literally any other position except catcher. He might be a 70 defender in center if they try that, and his arm would make him a natural at third. But I’d leave him at short for now until he proves he can’t stay there.

aholla: If Stephen Strasburg was coming out of San Diego State this year, would he be a unanimous lock to go No. 1 overall or would there be some arguing for a hitter given rising concerns about pitcher durability?
Keith Law: Paul Skenes is, in effect, Stephen Strasburg in this draft. And Skenes isn’t a lock to go 1.

Marc: Keith, are you a believer in Mitch Keller? Happy birthday
Keith Law: The cutter seems to be enough to keep lefties in check – he still gives up too much power to them, but also is getting them out enough to mitigate that. That was the knock on him since probably AA, that he lacked a third pitch for LHB. So yes.

Zack twink: Was Emmanuel rodriguez over hyped… or it there not a reason to worry yet. Thank! Happy birthday
Keith Law: He’s very young, with less than a half-season in low A last year, and it’s only two months.
Keith Law: I’m more concerned about Gavin Cross, who’s 22 in high A, hitting much better the last 3-4 weeks but striking out a third of the time at a level he should be crushing.

G: Considering Crews and Langford are considered some of the favorites for 1st overall, it got me wondering: The history of college OFs drafted 1st overall is small and not great overall. Is there a reason for this? Is college OF generally considered too limited in upside for 1st overall?
Keith Law: I think a lot of it is selection bias – the type of player who’d be 1-1 out of college as an outfielder probably gets drafted high out of HS enough of the time that he never gets to this point.

Robbie: What’s your opinion of the Braves decision to call up AJSS? Clearly rushing his development with such a short stint in the minors.
Keith Law: Is it, though? Or is this a case of he’s good enough to help us now, so why waste his bullets? I have said he’s basically a two-pitch guy and it will be very interesting to see if he can get lefties out just like that, which Strider has as a two-pitch guy, or if he needs to develop (almost from scratch) a third pitch.

Tom: think kyle manzardo gets the call in the next month or so?
Keith Law: No, unless there’s an injury.

James: What should the Yankees do with Oswald Peraza? Seems like he’s ready for the big leagues but they don’t have room for him. Easy answer would be to cut Donaldson and let him split time with DJ but they don’t seem to want to do that.
Keith Law: Yes, that’s the answer. Not sure why they still have Donaldson at this point.

ChicagoDude: Happy 50th birthday! May your every endeavor turn out better than baseball in this town this year.
Keith Law: Thank you! That’s a low bar to clear.

G: Recent buzz has Max Clark as an option for the Pirates at 1st overall. I know the top-5 in this class is very strong, but would passing on Crews/Skenes/Langford be a Bryan Bullington level error on the Pirates part?
Keith Law: I think that’s been the buzz all spring – if they wanted to go HS, he’d be the choice. And in some drafts he’d be 1-1. It doesn’t hurt that he plays about 20 minutes from Pittsburgh’s AAA affiliate, so any exec in town to see their prospects can just pop over and see him too. I think the risk they run if they take Clark is that a year from now Crews and Skenes are in the big leagues and Clark is in A-ball, even maybe doing well there, but they’ve missed a chance to get someone who gets there almost right away.

Isaac: The guardians HAVE to move some of their SP depth for probably 2 hitters.. at least.. right? Is there any chance they can package a deal for Jordan walker? Would the cards move him? It seems like 2 teams dealing good pieces from positions of strength. What would that take?
Keith Law: Don’t see the Cards trading Walker but I wonder if they’d move another young OF like Carlson, who I still believe in but who might be superfluous there.

Joe: Is Vogelbach proof that high OBP in itself does not make a good player, or is he just an outlier? He currently has .364 OBP (great!), but 0 WAR because he can’t do anything else.
Keith Law: Also a platoon guy. 121 PA vs RHP, 8 PA vs LHP this year. His OBP would be a lot worse if he had to play every day.

Jim: There’s been some some suggestions by White Sox fans to move Moncada or Tim Anderson to 2B to fill the hole that’s seem to have been there since Tadahito Iguchi. How easy or difficult is it for a guy to move from 3B or SS to 2B strictly from a defensive perspective?
Keith Law: It’s not difficult, at least based on past cases of guys making the shift to second, but I’m not sure why you’d move an average-ish SS like Anderson off the position unless you have a better defender right there to take his spot.

Tim: What is your current read of Drew Gilbert? I’m guessing we are looking at a 2024 arrival, though AA, I guess, kind of means it could be any time. Do you see him as a regular? An occasional all star? A 4th outfielder?
Keith Law: I think occasional all-star is a fair ceiling, more likely a quality regular who’s a little better than average. The power he showed in hitter-friendly Asheville hasn’t shown up in AA yet, and I think this level is going to be more telling.

Tom: Do you think Jameson Taillon turns it around?
Keith Law: If healthy, yes.

Jibraun: Happy Birthday!
Keith Law: thank you!

Ryan: Should Brave fans be concerned about Michael Harris?
Keith Law: I think some regression was inevitable. He’s never had a particularly good approach, notably in pitch recognition, and at some point that was likely to bring down his production. He’s also been pretty unlucky this year.

JD: Does Gavin Williams have more to work on before the Guardians call him up?
Keith Law: Yes, getting LHB out.

addoeh: Congrats on completing another lap around the sun!  Have you ever, or would you ever, want to throw out the first pitch at game?
Keith Law: I have not. I’d consider it, if I knew ahead of time and could make sure I could practice enough to have a chance to throw a strike. I’m not going to get cute out there and try to throw hard or be funny.

JD: With Henry Davis looking fully recovered from last year’s injury, how does he project compared to this year’s breakout catchers?
Keith Law: I’m all in. This was my hope, that the hand injuries held him back last year and he’d be the hitter I saw in college once again.

Luke: Do you see anything different in Alex Faedo? Has some nice peripheral stats (26:2 K:BB) in his 26 innings this year.
Keith Law: He is throwing more strikes, so the drop in his walk rate might be real, but I don’t think he can limit hard contact enough to be more than a back-end starter.

JD: Does Ben Joyce have enough control to thrive in the majors? The stuff is obviously top-shelf, but you have to throw it over the plate occasionally…
Keith Law: He’ll stay in the majors and probably have stretches where he looks unhittable and stretches where he can’t get it over the plate or gets hit hard. It’s primarily that one pitch.

Daryl Andrews: Favourite board game in 2023 (new or new to you)
Keith Law: So far it’s probably Earth, but I have a terrible backlog of new games to play!

Drew: Accidentally hit send before finishing my thought…

Is it rational to be pissed at the Nationals org for treating Trevor Williams’ statement like a fart in an elevator? I get that the Sisters are provocative, but if you just do a little bit of research into them, you’ll discover that they’ve done a lot of good work, sometimes even in concert with religious organizations. He’s entitled to his opinion and free to speak his mind, but it’s a colossal bummer.

Anyway, happy birthday!
Keith Law: I agree with you. And again, as an ex-Catholic myself, I have little time for people who rail against the Sisters but have said nothing at all about the Catholic Church’s systemic cover-ups and enabling of abuse of thousands of children, maybe tens of thousands, across the world, something the Church continues to minimize and obfuscate.

Jamestown met: Has your evaluation od Ronny Mauricio changed since your last overview on him? He seems to be making positive adjustments that I never fully expected. Thanks for the chat on your b-day!!!!!
Keith Law: More that he’s hitting all the right notes, and maybe getting a little lucky.

Dave: Happy big birthday! With Joulien sent down today because of Polanco’s place on the Twins’ depth chart, do you think his bat and on-base skills will ultimately translate from MiLB to MLB?
Keith Law: I think he has a long career but is only a sometime regular.

Tim: Hey Keith! Happy birthday. Have you heard anything about what Matt McLain has done better/differently this year compared to last? He seems to have righted the ship but wanted to see if you still have reservations. Thanks!
Keith Law: He looks a lot stronger than he did at the end of last year. In the AFL he looked like a high school kid all over again, both in body and results.

Nick H.: Ethan Wilson is showing power in AA and it doesn’t look like it’s all because of Reading’s park. Is there any substantive change with him?
Keith Law: Yes. The Phils have worked to try to get his swing back to where it was when he was a sophomore in college and I think it’s working.

Derek: I turn 42 today. June 1 represent
Keith Law: We share a birthday with Oscar the Grouch. Not sure how old he is. I asked him, but he told me to scram.

Nick H.: Jhailyn Ortiz has significantly cut his K% in AAA after he was removed from the 40-man roster. Is this just random or did something change?
Keith Law: With the ABS in AAA I’d beware of players who seem to improve their plate discipline overnight. That said, if Ortiz really has made a change there – I don’t know either way – he has always had the swing for hard contact and power.

Brent: Happy birthday Klaw! What’s your birthday meal going to be?
Keith Law: We’re going out to a very fine restaurant in Philly tonight. I’m excited. I’m eating too little for lunch just to prepare.

Jackass Penguin: happy bday to one of my favorites, Keith Law, keep doing what you are doing, you are necessary!
Keith Law: thank you!

Santaspirt: How often do you make it to Norfolk for Tides games? Or Hampton roads in general? Any guys in the coastal plain league worth scouting?
Keith Law: Actually never been to Norfolk for a game. I don’t do much AAA work because there are fewer prospects there relative to AA and below. CPL often has prospects but I don’t know offhand who’s there.

BD: Happy Birthday.   

What are you hearing about Elijah Green?  Looks like the K’s have started to come down, but I was hoping for more power.
Keith Law: Really struggling with pro breaking stuff. I saw him briefly a few weeks back – hell of an athlete, but was overmatched at the plate. I think he’s a guy who suffers from the elimination of short-season.

scratchandspit: What are the Jays to do with Manoah?
Keith Law: Guys like him & Taillon, my first thought is always that something’s physically wrong. It doesn’t have to be huge like a blown UCL. It could be a slight oblique strain or something that’s just enough to throw off their mechanics, but being ballplayers they don’t want to sit or even say they’re not 100%. You play through minor pain. That’s just the baseball ethos. I don’t know in either case if that’s true but in my experience that’s a common explanation.

Gregory: What are the chances the Big 5 draft prospects are not the first 5 taken?
Keith Law: I think there’s a 95% chance that the top 4 picks come from the Big 5. The Twins are the wild card for me.

Romorr: As a fan, I never saw a consistently good change up with Grayson, and his location was inconsistent. Anything you saw in these 10 starts, and anything I am missing?
Keith Law: He had a very good CH in the minors through last year. That pitch he has, and he developed it after signing, so credit him & the Orioles.

JP: No question here. Just a thank you for your continuous support of the LGBT community. When people and organizations with large audiences continue to show support, it reminds us all that it’s ok to be who you were born as. And that continued message of acceptance can hopefully sand down the hate that still exists outside and inside sports, giving closeted athletes hope that they can be themselves.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I stand with all of my LGBTQ+ readers and will always have your backs.

Romorr: I think you will agree, Ortiz should be playing for Mateo. But with Gunnar, Frazier, and Urias, what do you do with Westburg? Trade bait come July, and just keep him down? Seems silly if that is the thought process.
Keith Law: I do agree – isn’t Mateo’s OBP like .250 since that weird first week? – and I think Westburg would be a very valuable trade piece.

James: Any thoughts on Jasson’s slow start? His plate discipline seems to be there. Is he just hitting into bad luck?
Keith Law: Slow start last year too, no? He’s a baby, and it’s early. I am not worried about guys who are young for their levels and struggling in two months.

Guest: Happy Birthday, Keith! From what we have seen so far from MacKenzie Gore, do you think he is moving closer to being the pitcher that we thought he may be a few years ago?
Keith Law: I do. It’s funny, I found a tweet from someone trying to dunk on me for my top 5 prospects from a few years ago not panning out. The list included Gore and Kelenic. Sometimes, you just have to be patient.

Ooglas: Is Alvarez early success for the Mets sustainable the whole year? Thanks.
Keith Law: I’m in.

Chris: Any thoughts on the Cards handling of Jordan Walker? Seems like they had no real strategy at all for their outfield glut of mediocrity, and then allowed spring training to dictate bringing him up.
Keith Law: The last part is the big one. It feels like they reacted to spring training, as the Yanks did with Volpe. I just don’t believe that’s ever a good process.

James: How should we look at Jackson Chourio’s stat line give that the AA league is using the new pre-tacked ball? Realistic to say he may have even more success in AAA due to that?
Keith Law: It’s realistic to hope for that, yes. Excuse my language, but MLB is really fucking up some stat lines, and maybe some development, by experimenting with this stuff in affiliated leagues.

Pat: Thoughts on the Lasso finale?
Keith Law: I want to write something longer about the whole season, but my short take is that the finale was very good, and the episode before was great, but the rest of S3 was a huge disappointment.

Erik: Josh Jung is hitting well but is striking out a lot. I haven’t done a deep dive on the numbers, but is he more likely to sustain this or crash? Also, Happy Birthday!
Keith Law: I believe he’ll cut down on the K% over time.

Matt: If conservatives boycott everything, how are they gonna eat? Starving to death to own the libs.
Keith Law: I don’t see any evidence these boycotts do anything except stir up online anger and maybe put money in grifters’ pockets.

Optimistic Nats Fan: One analyst I read said he did not see more than one above-average MLB player out of MacKenzie Gore, Josiah Gray, Keibert Ruiz,  CJ Abrams, James Wood, Brady House, Elijah Green, Jarlin Susana, or Rober Hassell.

Agree or disagree?
Keith Law: I disagree. A lot.

PJ: This may be a dumb question, but in yesterday’s Cubs game, they had to send up Edwin Rios in a critical spot in the game.  Rios has hit under .100, struggled in minors, is 29yrs old, and was never a prospect.  Why are guys like that on big league rosters?
Keith Law: Rios was a prospect, just never got a chance. The Cubs have a lot of non-factors on their roster, though.

Sean: Happy Birthday, KLAW.  Love all your work!  Question on Bryce Miller… With his fastball spin rate, are hitters going to start figuring him out?  Or is it so unusual that he is going to be a step ahead?
Keith Law: Spin rate in a vacuum isn’t that telling.

wickethewok: Is it acceptable to be excited about the Pirates having the first pick? I’m still cautious due to their player development track record
Keith Law: Yeah, I think they’re doing a better job with some of the guys in the system already. Keller’s a win. Chandler and Solometo are coming along.

Romorr: Any trips to Aberdeen recently, or soon? Interested in what you think of Fabian, Wagner, and Willems.
Keith Law: Saw them once earlier in the spring, need to see more and will definitely get down there this month.

Guest: What are a couple of your favorite boardgames a 6-year-old can handle? We’ve played My First Carcassonne, and she liked it, but it pretty quickly felt maybe a little too simple. If you have any recommendations for collaborative games, those would be especially appreciated. So far we’ve played Outfoxed, which she enjoys.
Keith Law: Outfoxed is great. So is Dragomino. Also Quacks & Co.

Optimistic Nats Fan: Scouting the statline: Carter Keiboom and Brady House have similar numbers in A-ball. How are they different?
Keith Law: House destroys baseballs.

Ryan: Corbin Carroll is turning into an absolute beast already. Not a question, just marveling at how good he is already.
Keith Law: My guy. I said it in 2019 – if he were 6’2″ rather than 5’10”, he would have been in discussion at 1-1.

Michael: You are the reason I finally subscribed to the Athletic. For those who aren’t aware, you can get it for $20 a year now. It’s a pretty good deal
Keith Law: Thank you!

Timmy: No response needed. Just hear to say happy birthday. I’ve enjoyed following meadow party, and appreciate your honest, open newsletters. Followed you for awhile now and I’m happy for you and your family that y’all seem to be doing so well. Happy 50th!
Keith Law: And thank you.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – I’m sorry I couldn’t get to even half of your questions. Thanks for reading and for all of the birthday wishes. I’ll resume hating your favorite teams momentarily – and I’ll have a new draft prospect ranking up next week. Stay safe, everyone.