I have two new posts up at Paste this week: a wrapup of the new games I saw last week at the Origins Gaming Fair, and a review of the new roll-and-write game Corinth from Days of Wonder.

Keith Law: So if you’re tired of the same old story … it’s Klawchat.

addoeh: I watching Tanner Anderson’s wind-up and I didn’t realize your alma mater teaches the “Ministry of Silly Walks” delivery.
Keith Law: Hey, us Harvard guys are just a bunch of plucky underdogs. No one gave us any advantages. We’re all self-made like that.

Nick: What’s the best fried chicken you’ve had?
Keith Law: The Crack Shack in San Diego, probably because they use the best chicken.

Robert: How would CJ Abrams compare to Royce Lewis as amateurs? They seem quite similar.
Keith Law: I don’t see them as similar at all other than their speed. Lewis had more impact with the bat. Abrams is a better shortstop right now than Lewis at the same age.

Mike: I keep reading good reports on Kelenic this year. Is he looking more and more like a top 20 prospect?
Keith Law: No question.

Mike in Seattle: Hi Keith – love your work and was wondering if you planned on doing an mid-season updated prospect ranking this year?
Keith Law: Yes, I do this every year on the Thursday of All-Star Week. This year that will be July 11th.

Alex: As a Braves fan, I hate thinking that the Braves “did the right thing” in refusing to hand out multiyear free agent deals and waiting to sign Keuchel to a one-year deal two months into the season — this boring bean-counter baseball is appalling labor economics and it sucks to watch. But it’s not poor strategy.We all know the MLBPA has a tough row to hoe in the next CBA. Is there anything that journalists and writers can do in writing about free agents to
Keith Law: It’s not poor strategy if you get the player, right? What if you could have had Keuchel on Opening Day and got 30 starts from him … but instead, you didn’t sign him, and you miss the playoffs by a game?

Alex: We know the next CBA is going to be tough for players, as owners have (somehow) decided upon collective stinginess as a strategy. Are there any best practices for journalists and writers, when writing about free agents and free agency, to make the guaranteed dollar amount less of a focus than the actual human player?
Keith Law: Sorry, this looks like the second part of your question. A good start would be for writers to stop acting as if players who earn eight figures aren’t deserving – this money exists in the sport because MLB teams are highly profitable. If the players aren’t paid, the excess goes to owners.

Tom B: Phillies moving Alec Bohm at the right speed? What do you see as his ceiling?
Keith Law: No. Starting him in low-A was a colossal waste of everyone’s time. He was the third pick in the draft out of college. If he wasn’t ready for high-A on Opening Day this year at age 22, he was the wrong pick.

M: Adbert Alzolay had a really nice debut last night. Can he stick around with the big league team this year?
Keith Law: Yes. The bigger question is whether his improved FB command and better CB are enough to let him get lefties out three times through an order. If not, he’s still a valuable bullpen piece. But if they can, he can start now.

Kyle KS: Does the juiced ball benefit pitch speed and spin rate? If it has reduced drag while in the air when it’s hit, does it do the same for pitchers or is the distance and time from the mound to the catcher too short to have effect?
Keith Law: The altered baseball changes everything – spin rate, drag, carry – although I don’t think it affects pitch speed. Better question for a physicist.

Ben: Is this the Max Kepler you were expecting?
Keith Law: Yes but I was a year early, again.

Ben: Odds we see Bo Bichette this year?
Keith Law: Very good if healthy.

Steve: I believe in a past chat you said WRC+ is not a great way to evaluate minor league players but I cannot recall why. If that’s your sentiment, could you elaborate?
Keith Law: It only measures production, but we don’t necessarily care about production with prospects – how you get to the production is just as important, and sometimes we’re happy with prospects who don’t produce a ton but aren’t overmatched, such as teenagers in full season leagues. Chase Vallot is my go-to example: He posted a 136 wRC+ in high-A two years ago, and wasn’t old for the level, but he really couldn’t hit. He saw enough bad pitching, since it was A-ball, that he could beat up on that enough for a good wRC+ despite getting blown away by even average major league stuff. Last I checked he was back in low-A and still not hitting.

Felix: Do you happen to know when we will see Eric Pardinho toe the rubber this year?
Keith Law: I haven’t asked anyone but I assume now that short-season has begun we’ll see him.

Kevin: Given how the Mets have played this year, and how Diaz has been relatively average this year plus Cano is hurt. And Kelenic has been great this year. Was that the dumbest trade in the past 2 years?
Keith Law: This trade is going to haunt them for a long time. Dunn has also been excellent for Seattle in AA.

Dave: Do you like the Bulls taking White at 7? Seems like a good fit & you might miss some of the injury risk that comes with Garland.
Keith Law: Jon Garland?

Bill: Keith, no question. Just wanted to thank you for the book recommendation on The Master and Margarita (via your top-100 novels list). Such a terrific read. There are so many wonderful layers to that book – I couldn’t put it down. Keep up the great work!
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I’ve read well over a thousand novels now and that is still my favorite. It’s one of the only books I have ever read twice, and it holds up.

Janey: Do you feel stress over the border situation and how the US now are the bad guys? 40+ people in rooms meant for 8, kids taking care of kids, separated families. Any advice on what can be done before we get the chance to vote people out?
Keith Law: I’m afraid that I’m getting desensitized because there is so much bad news (if you care about human rights, or just feel empathy at all). If you live in a red district, though, you should be all over your elected reps to voice your displeasure – and if you live in a blue one, as I do, make sure your reps know where you stand.

Matt: Aside from a couple starts Alex Faedo has been impressive in AA this year. Jason Beck said scouts had him sitting 94-95 in his last start. If his velo is back to that is he a legit prospect?
Keith Law: He’s not sitting 94-95. I’ve spoken to multiple scouts who’ve seen him and nobody reported that.
Keith Law: He’s probably a reliever but could be a back-end starter.

Jon: Are you surprised Nolan Gorman isn’t skipping straight to AA like the cardinals usually do with offensive prospects? How do you think he will fare in such a pitcher friendly league?
Keith Law: He’s only 19, that would make no sense to jump him to AA.

Mike in Sweden: Why did everyone think that 1B was Bellinger’s “natural” position?
Keith Law: It was his primary position in HS and he’s at least a 70 defender there.

Jerry: What is Seth Beer’s ceiling?
Keith Law: Everyday DH. Might have some platoon split issues to work on.

Seth: The Yankees have now had 6 separate shoulder injuries this season (Betances, Severino, Stanton, Andujar, Loaisiga, Montgomery). I’m not one for conspiracy theories, but doesn’t that feel like more than a coincidence? Could this be a strength and conditioning issue?
Keith Law: Bit of a coincidence, I think; Loaisiga has been injury-prone since before he signed, and Severino’s delivery was always a red flag. Plus Stanton seems like he should be in a different category from the five pitchers.

BalbonisImpactedColon: Is Clint Frazier in the Yankees org at the end of the year?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Adam: I saw a recent report that said Allard was sitting 91-93 and the bite on the curve was back (didnt know it left). Have you heard anything along those lines?
Keith Law: Nope. I don’t believe that velocity either.

CRAIG BIGGIO: YOU WERE WRONG ABOUT MY BOY WERENT YOU? ADMIT IT
Keith Law: YOUR BOY IS HITTING .203 and striking out nearly 30% of the time.

Rando : Chisholm had potential to make a huge leap on your rankings does he now have a chance to fall out of the top 100?
Keith Law: What? Why would he fall out of the top 100? He’s still one of the best prospects in baseball.

Joe: Thoughts on the EE trade? I didn’t see a write-up.
Keith Law: No writeup. No thoughts, really.

Jake: Gallen or Alzolay a better pitching prospect? Both seem to be having better years this year
Keith Law: Alzolay.

Peet: Is Preller just a bad negotiator? Gave Weathers full slot last year and broke the bank with Hudson Head. Or is Head actually worth that much?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t pay that much for Head. (Phrasing, boom!) Don’t know why giving Weathers slot was bad, though. That was his range in the draft.

Jonathan: Heard an interesting Hidden Brain recently talking about the Placebo Effect. If there are studies showing results without real medical intervention, is this a good road to go down? Is it ethical, and maybe most importantly, is it real?
Keith Law: The placebo effect is real. Charging people for it, however, is probably unethical.

PJ: I am all for the safety of expanded netting, and know you are too. But I think the change needs to happen in tandem with changing the location of the cameras for baseball telecasts. Too many teams let wires and poles and netting get in the way of the tv viewing. There’s sometimes a catch by the RF or LF is hidden behind a load-supporting wire.
Keith Law: Sure but isn’t that an easy fix?

JR: Thoughts on Anthony Kay and his development? Does he make it to MLB this year? Is he ready?
Keith Law: I think he’s ready. Could see him recalled if they trade one or more starters next month.

Sam: Have you heard anything on Royce Lewis? Numbers don’t look so great…thanks for the chat!
Keith Law: I’ve mentioned his swing & setup changes already … way too many moving parts. Not sure who taught him that but I imagine the Twins aren’t pleased.

Ryan: Tatis Jr. has been on fire since coming back off the IL. What’s his ceiling at his peak. Perennial MVP candidate?
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely.

Quinn the Eskimo: In your opinion, is College Baseball at all levels too “white”? Too much talk about “fundamentals” and “playing the game the right way”, etc…
Keith Law: It’s very white on the field, too, probably a function of disparate opportunities at youth levels and the lack of full scholarships. Baseball’s an expensive sport to play.

Bobby: Still think Dom Smith > Alonso?
Keith Law: Yes.

Matt: What in the world happened with Mike Vasil?
Keith Law: He made a bad choice.

Brett : What methods of cooking is spatchcocking a chicken especially good for?
Keith Law: High-heat roasting. Apparently good for grilling but I’ve never tried it.

Matt: If Verlander pitches another 6 years and ages well he could finish top 10 all time in SP WAR and top 6 post WWII. If he ages really well or pitches longer he could finish in the Maddux, RJ and Ryan category. He is one of the best pitchers of all time and I don’t think he gets enough credit. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I think he gets credit. He’s a clear HoFer.

Josh: Is there still room for Amed Rosario to become an above average regular? Hes only 23, but he is also a Met. You understand my confusion.
Keith Law: I’m still in.

Jim: Keith, Thanks as always for the chats. Have you heard anything on the status of the Nats’ Mason Denaburg? He didn’t pitch after being drafted because of (IIRC) biceps tendinitis. He’s listed on the Auburn NY-Penn roster, but others have said that’s unconfirmed. It would be … weird … if their 2019 #1 pick started pitching before their 2018 #1.
Keith Law: I thought he was also fighting some injury this spring. I could be wrong.

JR: Your daughter still appreciate animated movies? Will you be seeing Toy Story 4 this weekend?
Keith Law: Yes, but not seeing it first weekend. Let the crowds die down a bit.

Dave: What aspect of baseball do you think is under-covered right now?
Keith Law: Minor league salaries.

TJ: Re Matt Boyd: Frazier and Florial or Dom Smith and Gimenez too much to ask? Too little? About right?
Keith Law: Why would the Mets trade for him? The Yankees offer seems reasonable, but then again I’m not a big believer in Florial’s chance to learn to recognize pitches.

Kretin: Think the Mets sign Allan?
Keith Law: Yes.
Keith Law: They did not draft him on a whim. They clearly believed they had the money he wanted. If he doesn’t sign it’s likely some non-financial issue. But I believe he’ll sign.

Matt: When does a team blow up the entire draft system by spending much more than the limit and getting a great draft haul of “unsignable players.” Losing the picks in the future hurts, but couldn’t they just do the same thing every year? Not having a first round pick hurts less if you spend the same way every year.
Keith Law: You’d essentially punt the next draft or two by doing this. It might be a valid strategy but the risk + backlash would be substantial.

Tock: To what range do you see Deivi rising in the mid-season rankings?
Keith Law: He’ll be in the top 50 but not rising a ton … it’s not like he’s substantially different than what I said he was in January. He’ll move up due to graduations/injuries ahead of him.

Brian: I know you’ve been bearish on Dakota Hudson, but do you think his last couple months (significantly improved results from an abundance of ground balls, although a blah K/BB ratio) portend a secure role in the Cards rotation? Or is he more of a reliever long term?
Keith Law: Still think he’s a reliever.

Mark: Has Trent Grisham turned himself back into a prospect again? Still walks a lot and doesn’t strike out but now he actually has power. Still only 22 too.
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely. Maybe a regular, definitely a big leaguer.

Concerned Citizen: I’m scared to death by Trump’s brinksmanship, this time with Iran. Please reassure me in any way you see fit.
Keith Law: I have no way to reassure you on this, sorry.

Jeff D.: Which Dodger catching prospect has the best career: Smith, Ruiz, Cartaya?
Keith Law: Ruiz, Smith, Cartaya, in that order, but all three are prospects.

Salty: Keith – I bailed on Archer a few seasons ago, but started DVR’ing this season. I know you bailed awhile back…did you ever get back in, and if so, how’s the season been?
Keith Law: I am through season 8. Still enjoyed it.

Liam: Cristian Pache has been great offensively in AA – more walks than all of last year, same homers, etc.

In your top 100, you mentioned he’s a 20-25 homer guy that never posts high OBPs, with the new MLB ball is something like .300/.355 with 30 homers realistic?
Keith Law: I’d bet the under on that. He’s also probably an 80 defender in center, though, so he’d still be a star.

Aubrey: Between Yordan Alvaraez’ performance in AAA & so far in MLB, have you seen/heard anything about him that makes you rethink his initial ranking as a prospect this season?
Keith Law: Nope. Too many fans seem to think that omitting a player from my top 100 means I think he’s terrible. That was never the case.

Joules: I don’t love Pache’s HR spray chart. You think he’ll be able to get into any oppo power?
Keith Law: Yes.

scrapper: Why is MacKenzie Gore still in high A ball? He’s dominated there all season.
Keith Law: I truly doubt he’s there much longer.

Mike: My company is having a pie baking contest at the company BBQ. What kind of pie should I go with?
Keith Law: Whatever fruit is in season at the time.

Mike: Do you think Hiura stays at 2B long term or when will he move off 2B? I don’t know how he’s looked in the minor leagues at 2B but he looked bad in his brief stint in the Show
Keith Law: He’s not great there, but I think he can be adequate at 2b and hit enough where they don’t care.

Doug: I know it was one start. But why did the Padres go with Maregvicious over Allen at the start of the year?
Keith Law: I wonder if Allen’s disaster start the last Sunday of spring training swayed them.

Jake: Jarren Duran has cooled in AA though the approach is still solid. Do you think he has the bat to be a regular?
Keith Law: Yes.

Adam: Has Riley shown you anything you didnt expect to date?
Keith Law: No.

Rob: How good is Alejandro Kirk’s bat? Can he stick behind the plate to be a regular or is he more of a utility player?
Keith Law: He’s a prospect, potential regular back there. I’m definitely a fan of fat catchers.

Brian: On the Minor league salaries issue, my coworkers son was drafted in the 3rd round last year with a $500K signing bonus. What people don’t understand when they hear that is that is essentially all they will get unless they make it to the big leagues. He also left college a year early with no degree. He lives with his parents in the off-season, paid for his own personal trainer, and had to buy a lot of his own equipment (bats, gloves, etc.). It is border-line criminal how much these guys are exploited chasing a dream.
Keith Law: Yep, except it’s explicitly legal thanks to the Republican Party giving MLB a huge boondoggle in the 2017 tax bill.

JWR: Will you be making further comment about the Twitter flare up with Bauer? I know some of the details but I’m still not sure about the origin/history of events.
Keith Law: What comment have I made? Bauer decided it was appropriate to mock me for being 5’6″. I don’t think there’s anything further to say on it.

Ed: Is Zach Plesac a back of the rotation arm, or can he be more?
Keith Law: That’s what I think he is.

Paul: Mets starters haven’t been great but considering the team trots out the WORST defense in baseball – how much blame does a pitching coach deserve?
Keith Law: Can’t fire the owner or his son, so…

Miguel: When will Andres Muñoz be pitching in high leverage relief for the Padres?
Keith Law: I think sooner rather than later – they’re aware how fleeting an arm like this could be.

JV: How good is the culinary scene in Las Vegas? Also, could you live there, or would it be too much?
Keith Law: I couldn’t, not given the weather and the likely effects of climate change on the water supply.

David Tennant: What did you think of “Blink”? Is there a review of it?
Keith Law: The Doctor Who episode? Best I’ve seen through three seasons.

Randy: Re: draft punting….but that rule was designed to further help small market teams and keep fewer from tanking. It hasn’t really affected the game that way. Still have multiple teams and most of the NL east being non-competitive. Should draft rules be adjusted again in next deal?
Keith Law: Every time MLB has tried to change the draft rules to help small-market teams it hasn’t worked. I have no faith in further adjustments doing so.

eric: we have a passion fruit vine that is set to produce hundreds, if not more, passion fruit. what should we do with them?
Keith Law: It’s supposed to make a great jelly.

Michael: If MLB goes back to a more fair baseball and the numbers plummet, will there be a negative fan reaction?
Keith Law: Probably. But I fear long-term loss of fan interest with how few balls are put into play right now.

Jim: Juniper and Ivy (in San Diego) is truly wonderful. I live three miles away and finally went. Thanks for ranking it so high or I might not have gone.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. Can’t wait to get back there in December.

romorr: I heard Sedlocks fastball is better now, and while it’s just A+, is he popping back up on anyones radar?
Keith Law: You may have heard this because I wrote about it a month ago.
Keith Law: Probably a reliever, but that’s better than his prognosis six months ago.

Jason: Latest thoughts on Nate Pearson? Rotation in his future or dynamic arm out of the bullpen?
Keith Law: Have to think rotation until he shows otherwise.

Mark: What’s the deal with Corbin Burnes? He looked like he should’ve been a breakout candidate this year (I guess Woodruff took all his good juju?) Is it better for him to work out his struggles in the pen in MLB or should he be starting in AAA?
Keith Law: Poor results in the short term especially on HR haven’t changed his long-term outlook.

Jake: I remember a couple of years ago you mentioned that Mario Feliciano’s bat was real. He’s making you look good in that regard. Can he catch, and is that bat good enough to play elsewhere?
Keith Law: He can catch.

TK: Did you ever watch/review Good Omens? I didn’t read the book but just finished watching it with my wife and found it hilarious and very entertaining.
Keith Law: Watched one episode so far and enjoyed it.

baldguy510: What’s the latest on Wander Franco? When do you see him in the majors and is it definitely as a SS?
Keith Law: #1 prospect in baseball. Shortstop.

Dustin: Does Heliot Ramos have Top 20 potential heading into 2020?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.
Keith Law: Again, doesn’t make him a bad player. Just means there are plenty of guys ahead of him.

Craig: A family friend has a son who is a sophomore pitcher and has some acclaim (already committed to pitch for a SEC school, national rankings, etc.). At what point do MLB teams start seriously scouting HS players?
Keith Law: Summer before their senior year it really picks up.

Jim: What do you think of the proposed Tampa-Montreal “split season” floated? Jeff Passan had a pretty good recap. I think there are a lot of questions (contractual, logistic, tax, territorial, etc.), but it brings back thoughts of the Pittsburgh-Washington Homestead Grays (as well as the unfortunate 2004 Montreal-San Juan bit).
Keith Law: One of the worst fucking ideas i’ve heard in a long, long, long time.

eric: this is an actual question, and one, for the first time in my 35 years that i have fully considered it: are you ashamed being an american?
Keith Law: I am today. Our country, like any country, has a history of good and bad traits, of positive and negative impacts on the world. The last two years, however, have been overwhelmingly negative to the point that we are dragging the world backwards.

Dustin: Is there any reason to temper Twins fan’s excitement for Alex Kiriloff? Do you see him getting called up in September?
Keith Law: No reason. Don’t think they add him to the 40-man just yet.

Mark: What should the punishment be for someone who chooses not to vaccinate their kids? Disallow them from every holding a job or participating in society? Taxing them at 90 percent like you so hilariously (ha..ha) suggested?
Keith Law: The punishment should be that they can’t access public education. You want to send your kids to school? Fine. Get them vaccinated. Australia also disallows denier parents from getting certain social benefits. I’m good with that too. No idea what your strawman arguments are supposed to bring to the table.

Ronn: Just wanted to say thank you for always resisting. Me and my wife’s son love your work.
Keith Law: Our government is running concentration camps and arguing that we don’t need to provide the imprisoned children with soap or toothpaste. How can anyone stay silent and still sleep at night?

addoeh: This may be weird way to say this, but it seem the most efficient way of playing baseball (three true outcomes) isn’t the most profitable way (more fans) for the business side. The baseball side would have to change first, but with the long term local/national tv deals, will they change before it is too late?
Keith Law: I think that’s an accurate statement. Changing the ball has contributed. I’d like to see what the game looks like with the pre-2015 baseball … and then maybe we consider other structural changes. (I’ve also suggested raising the bottom of the strike zone, which drifted downward for years before creeping back up a little in ~2017.)

Liam: The Pirates seem to be done with Gregory Polanco (10 ABs in last 9 days) – Do you still have faith in him figuring it out?

I recall when he was a prospect, he had real star potential
Keith Law: I do. Maybe it happens somewhere else.

Snowy: How excited should I be for Ronny Mauricio?
Keith Law: Very. Might be the Mets’ #1 prospect, if not right now, very soon.

Vaccinations: Since that silly question was just asked, I have one that hopefully isn’t as silly. I know you’ve touched on it before, but is my vaccinated child totally safe from these wackados that don’t vaccinate, and what is the important of the heard immunity?
Keith Law: No, unfortunately it doesn’t. No vaccination is 100% effective – just like no medical treatment is – and some vaccines, like pertussis, are only about 70% effective on their own and depend on herd immunity to give you total protection. So people who don’t vaccinate hurt everyone in their communities.

Nate: Do you have a link to the tweet whee bauer threatened Whitney McIntosh personally? I looked and couldn’t find it. Did he delete it?
Keith Law: He deleted it. 12up had it in a post. He threatened her job, not her person.

Devon: Klaw, love your work. Have you ever written a column identifying prospects that are outliers in your rankings compared to other reputably rankings in the industry. I would love to know what players you are comparatively high or low on. Thanks!
Keith Law: I haven’t, and wouldn’t, because I don’t want to give the impression that I’m somehow criticizing the work that experts like Mayo, Callis, and Longenhagen do for their respective sites. We can disagree for valid reasons and still respect the opinions of others who do the same kind of work and put in the right effort.

Chris: Is hanigers trade value done for the year since he won’t be healthy till the all Star break?
Keith Law: If he’s back on the 12th, after the ASB, he’ll have plenty of time to retore his full trade value. Teams know what he is; they just have to see he’s healthy.

Chris: How hypocritical is it for the umpires’ union to be tweeting about Machado and his suspension because it fits a public-opinion narrative that it’s trying to create while at the same time having its members refuse to be held accountable publicly for in-game actions?
Keith Law: It’s beyond hypocritical; it’s embarrassing. I don’t know if MLB did anything beyond the statement they issued criticizing the tweet, but I hope behind the scenes they made clear that the umpires should not be speaking that way about players. It’s hard to imagine Machado getting fair treatment from umpires the rest of the season.

Aiden: I FINALLY got a copy of Wingspan (without paying $100 on eBay). Do you have a favorite number of people to play it with?
Keith Law: Three is a bit smoother than four.

Joe: Did the Yankees make the right decision picking Gleyber over Eloy in 2016 (not that there is a wrong decision given how little they gave up)?
Keith Law: I had Gleyber over Eloy at the time and would still say so.

Joe: Keith, I was the one who asked you if it was time to worry about Matt Manning about a year ago after another one of his then-patented 6 BB outings. Anyway he went on to walk like 10 guys total the rest of the year. No question, just here to turn myself in.
Keith Law: Nah, he really changed in the second half last year. The Tigers really did great work giving him a proper delivery he could repeat, and one that gave him extension over his front side that made use of his 6’6″ frame. That’s the reason he threw more strikes and his CB got better.

Craig: With London banning sharp tip knives now, along with the numerous studies showing more (legal) guns = less crime, are you ready to walk back your calls for more gun control?
Keith Law: No, troll, because there are numerous studies showing more legal guns equals more gun deaths. Take this shit to 4chan.

Tom: Are tool grades similar to bell curve standard deviations? How much better is a 55 tool than a 50 hit tool?
Keith Law: They might be so in theory, but they are not in practice.

Mark: If you were Preller would you have rather spent 3 million in Hudson Head or a similar amount on Maurice Hampton?
Keith Law: Hampton for me. But it sounds like he just didn’t want to play, and after Kyler Murray, could you blame anyone for backing off a player who shows some preference for football?

Adam: Is it time to worry about Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson, and Kolby Allard for Atlanta fans?
Keith Law: No on the first two. Allard just is what he is.

John: Just curious if you ever listen to the Joe Rogan podcast or have any opinion of him one way or the other? Thanks
Keith Law: I haven’t.

Ray: What fish do you like to grill, and what is a favorite preparation?
Keith Law: I don’t typically grill fish because it is so hard to keep it from sticking to the grates (and methods I’ve seen to prep the grates are so much work). I’d rather sear salmon and finish it in the oven, or just pan-sear trout.

John: I read someone compare Jack Leiter to Mike Leake with slightly better stuff. Would you agree with that assessment?
Keith Law: Better CB than Leake. Leake was more of a kitchen-sink guy in college who could really sink the two-seamer.

Jimmy: Brennen Davis of the Cubs, SSS or potential breakout?
Keith Law: Both of these things can be true at the same time. It’s a tiny sample, but he’s also a great athlete and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he blew up this summer.

Marco: I imagine if I met you in person you would be extremely similar to Captain Raymond Holt off of Brooklyn Nine-Nine if you’ve ever seen it.
Keith Law: I love that show, but he’s deadpan and rarely laughs or smiles. I’m the opposite, at least in the company of people I know.

eric: it seems that basically every gop representative and senator is brainwashed. like, they literally were asking about hilary’s emails in yesterday’s hearing about the russian interference in the elections. are they all bad-faith actors or evil or …
Keith Law: And our only recourse is to vote other people in, whether it’s Democrats, or the few Republicans who have shown independent thinking and may still represent the views of center-right voters.

Anchen: Do you think teams will continue to move toward 13 pitchers on the 25 man roster? Or even more? Or does it make sense to go back to 12 at all?
Keith Law: I think the 13-man pitching staff is here to stay. I hate it, but the solution is probably another bench spot.
Keith Law: Sorry, another roster spot to accommodate another bench spot – so I’m saying a 26-man roster with a cap on 13 pitchers.

Brian: Regarding Rocker getting abused a few weeks ago, do teams factor in the past history of college managers when ranking pitchers?
Keith Law: They factor the use of specific pitchers more than the history of coaches. I do know that teams steered away from pitchers from coaches/schools with severe histories of abusing pitchers, like Graham at Rice.

Chris: Regarding grilling fish, America’s Test Kitchen recommends mixing honey (for browning) with mayo (to prevent sticking), neither of which you can taste.
Keith Law: You wouldn’t taste honey? That seems unlikely.

John: What does it say about MLB teams that players have to buy equipment like Rapsodo etc. on their own in the offseason to try and get better? Why wouldn’t they provide them with all available resources to make their org. better? Or am I missing something?
Keith Law: Some do, I think. is that really universal?

John: What is meant by a “prep” player? Is it used interchangeably with high school?
Keith Law: Yes.

Aubrey: I wasn’t saying you thought Alvarez was terrible, I just wondered if your opinion of him was higher than it was before the season. If so, I know sample size is small, so maybe scouting wise you saw something you liked more.
Keith Law: Nope, same guy, all bat, not a great long-term projection to the body, huge power.
Keith Law: I can’t tell who’s just asking about a player versus who’s saying nyah nyah nyah.

Kevin: Could Tatis be Mike Trout good?
Keith Law: As much as I’d enjoy that, I’m not saying any player is going to be Mike Trout good. That’s a level of good beyond any good I’ve seen in my lifetime.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thanks as always for your questions. I should be back for another chat next Thursday or Friday depending on game schedules. Also, I have a talk & book signing on July 8th at the Hudson Library & Historical Society just outside Cleveland. I hope to see some of you there!

My recap of day one of the draft is up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: Do what I want, cause I can. Klawchat.

Max G.: Are the Astros being too smart for their own good?
Keith Law: Eh, that’s more judgmental than I’d like to be. I think they’ve chosen a philosophy of drafting that won’t work in the long run. If that’s true, they’ll realize it and change course.

Stanislav: Do you think that the Yankees will take a run at Jack Leiter, or that he’s dead set on Vandy?
Keith Law: Seems like that ship has sailed.

Bill G: Do you see Jarren Duran as a viable replacement for JBJ in the Boston OF? Thanks!
Keith Law: Too soon to say that. He’s a legit prospect, though.

Bob Pollard: What are your thoughts on the Cubs #1 pick, not so much his ability but was he selected in the appropriate spot?
Keith Law: I had him ranked 32nd in the class, and they took him 27th.

List-O-Mania!: On the spectrum of wildly overdrafted to hidden gem, where do you see Korey Lee ultimately falling? Might the Astros be thinking that his bat will play, and their emphasis on framing will get him far enough up the catching curve to stick there?
Keith Law: I think it’s a real reach. Wild overdraft.

alb2tead34: Ryan Garcia seemed like a guy with a lot of late helium. Was he a reach for the Rangers at 50, or is the high spin rate FB what teams are looking for now?
Keith Law: Not a reach. Taking a guy at 50 who wasn’t on the top 100 might be, but this wasn’t. Teams do love high spin rate FB. Also, the Rangers need pitching, and Garcia was one of the better college starters available at that pick.

Paul: If the Mets can sign their top three picks then I think they have had a great draft. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I agree. I do not believe they took Allen without knowing what it would cost to sign him. They’ve followed him up with two college seniors who’ll probably sign for $10K or something similar so they can pay Allen what he wants.
Keith Law: The Astros just took their first guy from my top 100 – Hunter Brown, a Division 2 starter who’s been up to 98 with an average slider. Good pick in that spot, but funny that that’s probably the highest-ranked guy they’ll take.

Aaron C.: You’ve called this the “worst pitching draft” in your 18 years involved with it. So, what year got dethroned, sir?
Keith Law: I’d have to think about that one; this is substantially worse than any I can remember. The 2006 draft felt that way at the time, but produced Kershaw and Lincecum.
Keith Law: Sorry, 2006 felt like a weak pitching draft, not as weak as this year’s though.

Adam D.: In your opinion, are Hunter Bishop’s swing and miss issues fixable? And based on that, how likely is he to reach his ceiling? Thanks for all the hard work!
Keith Law: Yes. I think guys who show this kind of progress in tightening their plate discipline are prime candidates to continue to improve. That’s the difference between Joey Gallo and Seuly Matias.

Simon: At what round of the draft do you usually first ask yourself, “Who?”
Keith Law: Until they said “a catcher from the University of California” I blanked on Lee. Once the college seniors start in round 4 I’m not even expecting to know half the names.

Tom: The Mariners have a 18 year old DH in AAA named Robert Perez who hasn’t played above the DSL. He’s hitting okay, but it seems like an absurd jump for someone without much hype. What is going on there? Are they trying to juice his value by juking the stats on age-relative-to-league models? Is he a sleeper superprospect?
Keith Law: No, just a temporary assignment. Certainly great to see that he’s not totally overwhelmed by the jump, though. I think most guys would be.

mibreli: How far outside your top 100 was Korey Lee? Also, is there any reason to believe that this year’s collective crop of catchers drafted in the first round can buck the historical trend of catchers drafted in the first round not panning out?
Keith Law: He wasn’t even a remote consideration; I don’t keep ranking guys privately but I would comfortably say he wasn’t in the next 50.

Simon: Do you ever play legacy type games, like Gloomhaven?
Keith Law: I play legacy games like Charterstone and Pandemic, but not RPGs like Gloomhaven.

Nate: Keith, it is very strange to see the White Sox drafting players high up on your board. Does this indicate a change in strategy or are you secretly advising Rick and Nick?
Keith Law: Definitely not advising them, and I don’t think they need my help either. Really strong draft for them so far.

G: Are the Pirates first two picks (Priester and Siani) expected to go over slot, or are all of their seeming under-slot selections of day 2 thus far saving up for 10th round and after guys?
Keith Law: Maybe both. I think Siani is over slot for sure.

Bret: I know you’re high on Alek Manoah. What is it that, you hope, will separate him from the other big, large SPs that haven’t reached their perceived potential?
Keith Law: Not sure which guys you might mean. Manoah’s well put together; that weight isn’t fat or just heft. His delivery works, he throws strikes, he has four pitches.

Sandy Eggo: Any signability concerns with Hudson Head? Or should the pick of Mears help with $$ a little bit for the Padres
Keith Law: Head will be over slot but 99% of the time teams do not draft players without knowing what it will cost to sign them and making sure they have that pool space. I doubt there have been more than a dozen players taken in the top ten rounds since the new system went into effect who went unsigned just because of money.

Dave: I’ve read that Tyler Baum’s stuff ticked up a few notches right before the draft? Did you hear that and what do you think about him?
Keith Law: That’s not right – what he did do late was hold the stuff deeper into games. I saw him at the ACC where he was still hitting 94-95 at the end of his outing, when earlier in the year he’d done so just for an inning or two up top.

Clay, Rutherford, NJ: Are the Cubs looking for 2019 bullpen help through the draft?
Keith Law: I believe they’re looking for 2020 bullpen help.

RJS: I’m sensing a theme among the Cubs picks so far, and I can’t say I’m disappointed. Fair to suggest they’ll try most of the pitchers taken through 5th round as starters or might McAvene stay in the pen and try to move up quickly that way? Thanks for the chats, KLaw.
Keith Law: McAvene has three pitches to start, but that does change his time frame and they may choose to move him faster as a reliever.

Dave: How should college baseball deal with pitcher overuse? Pitch counts? Appearance caps? Because we see yet more gross overuse again this postseason.
Keith Law: MLB should pull any support for college baseball until the NCAA agrees to abide by PitchSmart guidelines, including changing the draft rules to make players eligible at any time (after their freshman or sophomore years) unless the NCAA relents. MLB has all the leverage here.

Jeff: Do you think Soph elig Gabe Holt still goes today or is he going back to school?
Keith Law: I wonder if he told teams he didn’t want to sign. Obviously a top five rounds talent.

Sean: Yankees do a poor job drafting in these early rounds. Yes or no?
Keith Law: No. Liked the Sikkema pick a lot.

Eric: what power grade does Bleday have? can it transfer to MLB?
Keith Law: It’s plus and it will translate. He has exceptional hand/wrist strength.

Bradley: Love the James Beard pick for the White Sox on name alone. Outcome likely to be Terrance Gore? Billy Hamilton? Hopefully more?
Keith Law: Same org that turned Micker Adolfo from a workout phenom into an actual hitter. I give them a good chance here.

Greg: You seemed to like the Blue Jays’ first couple of picks. Does the addition of Robertson (who you ranked better than his draft position) make it a very successful first few picks?
Keith Law: Yep. Really like it so far.

Mike : Braves drafting looks off on paper. Is that your assessment? Have you heard anything on it so far?
Keith Law: Philip is the one pick i just do not understand. Not a day one guy, probably not a top three rounds guy.

JG: Did the Twins reach on Kavaco or is the potential worth the risk?
Keith Law: Both could be true, I think. There is plenty of potential there. I think there’s more hit tool risk than they do, obviously.

Brian: So are the Mets first 3 picks worth senior signs in rounds 4-10?
Keith Law: Yes.
Keith Law: Literally got the best HS pitching prospect in the draft – my rankings and MLB’s agree. Fangraphs had him behind Priester and I don’t have any dispute with that.

Rob : I ummm don’t understand the Padres draft after the first round. Regardless of the quality of their assessment it feel like they’re reaching for players they could’ve gotten later. thoughts?
Keith Law: I disagree. I think they may have gone under for Driscoll to help pay for Head.
Keith Law: #phrasing

Nate: When you say you feel like the Astros have chosen a draft philosophy you don’t think will work in the long run…is that tied into the big overhaul they’ve had with their scouting department in recent years?
Keith Law: You mean the elimination of their scouting department?

Simon: I know you quit beef, what are your thoughts on dairy milk alternatives? My infant son is allergic to dairy and soy, and we’ve been researching oat milk
Keith Law: Oat milk is extremely sweet, which has its pros and cons. I think cashew milk is my favorite all-purpose alternative, although it’s expensive (and should be).

Andy: Any more details on what caused teams to take Espino off their boards? Was this reflected in your rankings?
Keith Law: It was not reflected in my rankings because I heard it less than 24 hours before the draft. I would have moved him *way* down.

Chris: How fast can Baty move? Can he move up the ranks faster bc he’s already 19.5 or doesn’t matter?
Keith Law: I believe he can finish next year in high-A – that he’s strong enough and advanced enough as a hitter to do so. That would obviate the age concern.

Sean: I can’t find much, but some articles are suggesting that Conor Grammes (Xavier in Ohio) is hitting 98-100 MPH as a starting pitcher, sitting 94-97. How accurate is that?
Keith Law: He absolutely hit 100 mph in Arizona in February, but he can’t hit the broad side of a barn when he’s throwing that hard.

Kedelbro: Does Will Holland have any shot to get his swing back?
Keith Law: Yes.

Kevin: The Red Sox took Noah Song in the 4th round today. He’s from Navy with a 2 year commitment still. Is this just another guy who will get a 10k bonus?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s a $10K guy. The Red Sox must believe he’s going to be allowed to pitch, though, which isn’t really the history with Navy players.

Andrew Please: Dodgers seem to love drafting guys who strike out less than they walk. Is that something that is a bit overrated? If not, why aren’t other teams as interested in it?
Keith Law: Everyone’s interested in it, but many players who strike out less than they walk in college either 1) have no other real tools or 2) get there through passivity, because so few college pitchers can actually throw strikes consistently.

Sean: Anthony Volpe seems like he’s another SS the Yankees overdrafted. See; Cito Culver. Kyler Holder.
Keith Law: The Culver comp is the one that would scare me. The Yankees loved Culver’s makeup, and Volpe’s best tool appears to be his makeup (the real stuff – work ethic, instincts, etc.).

Dustin: Thanks for not dodging my abortion questions yesterday. Curious to know how you can justify your position that a child in the womb is not a human life? Science says it is. It’s life is dependent on another person, but so are all born children and many elderly.
Keith Law: You are either purposely misrepresenting the science, or refusing to understand it. That is a false analogy of epic proportions.

Jared: No question, just a comment that you should Periscope more often when you have the time. REALLY enjoyed last night’s and the ability to get so many questions answered.
Keith Law: Thank you, I’m glad you enjoyed it, but sorry I was so distracted by the broadcast. I tried to get the draft show on my iPad but MLB seemed to have that blocked (or I just couldn’t figure it out in time). That might have made it smoother.

Dave: I just realized today that the Astros whiffed on both Aiken and Appell and they still have this much talent. Still hard to belive that two 1/1s just never made it.
Keith Law: Well, Aiken became Bregman, so they really whiffed on just one, Appel, on whom the entire industry whiffed.

JR: Quintana a legitament power threat?
Keith Law: No. Better as a high-average/all-fields guy.

James: I’m curious, how do teams determine who are guys they can sign for under slot deals?
Keith Law: It’s a really weird, complex process where they ask the players how much money they want.

Benny from Boston: Jordan Groshans’ older brother Jaxx to Boston. Any family resemblance on the diamond?
Keith Law: No. Saw Jaxx in February, picked in the right spot, but he’s not Jordan (who has come out of the gate *really* strong).

Rob K: IDK, man. Trusting the Mets to do something rational when 1. their GM has no draft room experience and 2. they’re the Mets feels like a bad bet.
Keith Law: Unfair. Seems like the GM has let their amateur scouting department do their thing – and given that group’s track record, that’s the right move. Kelenic, Dunn, Alonso, Smith, Kay, Peterson, Vientos, Woods-Richardson, Szapucki – Tanous/Tremuta have drafted those guys.

mark: who’s has better speed, Xavier Edwards or CJ Abrams?
Keith Law: Abrams by quite a bit.

Brett: Seems like the twins were going for high upside high risk guys, Would you make Wallner a SP or RF?
Keith Law: He doesn’t want to pitch.

Max G.: Re: Astros draft philosophy; How would you define it?
Keith Law: 10011100101000100111001 11010001 1111010011101110100101001010.

Drew: What can we expect out of Haseley? Too soon for the call up?
Keith Law: I’m not buying this ‘breakout.’
Keith Law: Swing was awful when I saw him last year.

Tom Y: Do you think the yankees took Volpe with the idea that if he doesnt sign, its not the end of the word to have two picks and extra slot money in a better draft next year?
Keith Law: No. Teams don’t do that.

Matt: What did you think of Will Holland falling as far as he did?
Keith Law: I think Auburn bears some blame for this. Good value in that round though.

Brendan: What the hell are the Pirates doing? Seems like Gorski was a significant overdraft and they don’t have any track record of helping guys with swing and miss problems (e.g. Casey Hughston and Dylan Busby). Then today they take middling college relievers at 4 and 5. Talk some sense into me, please.
Keith Law: I think their draft was focused on the top two guys, who both were high-ceiling high school kids who have more polish than your typical upside plays.

Tom: Is Song signable for the Red Sox?
Keith Law: Are you asking if he’ll sign for a … never mind.

BigDaddeh: Are we waiting until the draft is over to get a Keuchel or Kimbrel signing?
Keith Law: No, they could sign now.

Matt: Where would Noah Song be on your top 100 if not for his two year navy commitment? First round talent being floated around by Red Sox twitter is too aggressive, right?
Keith Law: Absolutely not a first round talent. Seems like fan talk.

Mas: Hair notwithstanding, your mock drafts put Mel Kiper to shame. Your top 7 picks were all spot on. Kudos, draft expert!
Keith Law: Still annoyed I switched Texas from Jung to Manoah. I may have put too much of my own beliefs (Manoah was clearly the better pick) into that one.

Gus: Is there anything stopping a player that is playing in the CWS from quitting his team to go play for the team that drafted him? Therefor saving himself from getting injured or overused by his college manager who no longer cares about him after the CWS
Keith Law: Nothing, and I wish a player would do it.

BigDaddeh: 1% chance of Vaughn raking in AA this year and getting the call to replace Alonso for the Sox playoff push?
Keith Law: No.

nelson: there is so much information online these days about mlb prospects. it’s hard to tell what is informed and what is not. any tips?
Keith Law: The people who are paid to do this work full-time are reliable, in my opinion. Setting myself aside, the guys at MLB and Fangraphs and Baseball America are really the only sources I read and trust. I know those guys personally and while we differ in approach, we all take our responsibilities seriously and work hard to provide good, informed opinions and information.

Guest: Is jahmai Jones still a prospect? 2 straight years of struggles.
Keith Law: Yes, of course he’s still a prospect. He’s only 21.
Keith Law: He’s younger than Kody Hoese and just a few months older than Langeliers, Busch, Davidson, and Shewmake, but Jones is in AA.

Brian: When do you expect to start to get questions on whether or not a first round pick will sign? Father’s Day week? 4th of July week? Today? Yesterday?
Keith Law: Today. And I will pretty much ignore them all after this chat because nearly all drafted players in rounds 1-10 sign unless they flunk their postdraft physicals.

Wade: Would a team draft me in the first 10 rounds if I would sign for $1 so they could have $9,999 extra towards their bonus pool over a college senior or is the body/actual roster spot worth more than the money at that value?
Keith Law: MLB would void it and penalize the team.

Anik Patel: Thoughts on Blue Jays drafting Canadian talent?
Keith Law: Dasan Brown is legit. No issue taking him in that spot – he’s a real prospect and that wasn’t homerism (hoserism?).

JG: Is 3/$42 million too much for Kimbrel?
Keith Law: I’d give him 2/$30 million rather than the third year.

Todd: Your thoughts on the transition from aluminum to wood bats? Fiction or truth?
Keith Law: Is what fiction or truth?

BigDaddeh: Louisville guy pitching 30 pitches after throwing 95 days earlier. How bad?
Keith Law: Bad. Could have been much worse, though.

Beetlejuice: Reds with a low risk college arm to start then 3 projectable bats after that. Like what they’re doing thus far?
Keith Law: Loved it.

Tim: Where do you see Drake Fellows going? He has out pitched several of the other SEC arms off the board already
Keith Law: “Outpitched” doesn’t mean anything at all. Anyway, Fellowes went in the 6th after you submitted this.

Andy: Houston could have gotten their catcher with their second pick right? There’s no one you heard on the guy even after the first round right?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Nate: Did callihan’s lack of position hurt him more than you thought it would?
Keith Law: I think so, although I don’t know if he floated a big bonus demand.

Sean: The Dbacks seem to be drafting “short” hitters the past two years: Alek Thomas last year and Corbin Carroll and Glenallen Hill Jr. this year. Are they exploiting an inefficiency in the market?
Keith Law: Seems like it. Short but strong hands/wrists/forearms is good. Short and slight is not.

Aaron C.: Can you provide some general examples of draftees who had “questions about their hit tool” but figured it out in pro ball?
Keith Law: Matt Chapman is the most obvious contemporary example.

Gaga: What were your thoughts on Kendall Williams?
Keith Law: All my thoughts on day one guys are in the ESPN post linked above. I’ll have team by team recaps up Thursday and Friday.

John: Is Keoni Cavaco an under slot pick? Seems like he got picked higher than he was on your and your competitors boards.
Keith Law: Don’t think so – he had other suitors in the teens.

Paul: When trying to rank Song, how do you factor in his Navy commitment? 4th round risk worth taking for the Red Sox?
Keith Law: Yes 4th round is fine. Just object to people claiming he’s some secret first round talent.

Uli Jon: I know this is a draft chat, so understand if you don’t get to this. But looking for a 2 player game for long airplane flights this summer. Low to moderate with not too many pieces. My family has patience for Azul and Love Letters, something like that but plays better with two.
Keith Law: Jaipur, Lost Cities, Battle Line. Patchwork is great but don’t think you could play it on two tray tables.

Xander: Sox draft two SS after signing me to a long-term deal. Am I worried, or are they position-switch candidates?
Keith Law: These two things are not related in the least. You draft the best players.
Keith Law: Also, Cam Cannon isn’t a shortstop.

Pat: If 2018 draft was re-done today, would Mize still be 1-1? Safe to say Kelenic would be 2nd pick?
Keith Law: He might be … but several first rounders from last year are off to great pro starts. Bohm, Groshans, G Rodriguez, Gilbert.

Mark: Regarding you comment on Baty in yesterday’s chat. Please tell me you are aware of the epidemic that is the amount of parents holding their student-athletes back to repeat a grade strictly for athletic reasons? Not saying that is the case here, but if he repeated 7th or 8th grade then that would be why.
Keith Law: I am, but have no idea if that was the case for Baty, and I said on Twitter to someone asking that it’s really none of our business *why* he’s 19.5 at graduation.

Bob: Preller has taken a pitcher with the 1st pick every year as the Padres GM, thought for sure he’d do it again, especially with Lodolo on the board.
Keith Law: No, I knew they were taking one of the big 6 bats.
Keith Law: Right move in that spot.

BigDaddeh: Who are some big names to watch in the 11th round once teams can start taking some more long shots?
Keith Law: I think someone will take Leiter, Hampton, Stewart, etc. Just secure their rights in case they change their minds.

John: I hear you on the PitchSmart guidelines, but baseball also has some pretty vocal adherents (Verlander, Bauer) to a school of thought that rejects those guidelines.
Keith Law: Yeah those guys don’t actually run the league.

Fran: Will Bryson Stott stay at SS or move to 3B?
Keith Law: No doubt SS for me.

Andrew: Will Joe Palumbo make the mid season top 100 now that he is proving it on his comeback from TJ?
Keith Law: The healthy guys from my “just missed” list are probably all on the top 100 now … just not Dunning or Graterol, since they’re hurt.

Andy: I know it’s dead horse beating, but I wonder if the Mets wouldn’t be better served NOT spending 160 AAA ABs, so far this year, on a guy who can’t be a serviceable MLB OF.
Keith Law: You’d think so, and yet, here we are.

Alan: How much stock do you put on pedigree? Seems like having family who played in MLB boosts you up a few rounds.
Keith Law: It helps with some teams. I don’t think it makes a prospect better, but it’s more interesting for me as a writer.

mc90: If we can mix in board game questions, any suggestions on good 2 player games?
Keith Law: See above but if you don’t have a space limitation 7 Wonders Duel is pretty incredible.

Seth: Any strong opinions on the Michigan trio that got drafted in the first few rounds? It’s nice to see the alma mater have some baseball success
Keith Law: Couple of potential back-end starters there in Henry and Kaufffffmannnn.

Brad: Plesac a future #2? He looks really good
Keith Law: He’s good but I think the ceiling is below that.

Brian: RE: Tom Y’s question about Volpe, what stops a team from intentionally not signing a 1st round pick to be able to use that pick the next year?
Keith Law: The player would file a grievance and MLB would not grant the compensatory pick. Too many fans think they can outsmart the system as if teams and the league haven’t already thought about all of this.

Welch: I saw on the MLB Top 200 Draft Prospects article that they only have 1 kid from the state of Oklahoma. As a current resident, do you know who that is?
Keith Law: Bryce Osmond was the only Oklahoma kid on my top 100. Probably him.
Keith Law: Also, he’s the only missing Osmond sibling to make my list.
Keith Law: Man, someone has to play “One Bad Apple” as his walkup music.

Shaughn: With a prospect like Brooks Lee still on the board – do we assume he has a strong commitment or that the industry doesn’t have the same perceived value?
Keith Law: He’s made it clear he’s going to school to play for his dad.
Keith Law: Ask him how that worked out for Kyle Serrano.

LGM: Do any of these Mets senior signers stand out to you at all?
Keith Law: No. Senior signs are almost always org guys.

Philip: Long-time reader and major fan of your analysis. Quick question and not draft related, but if a team used older catchers in a tandem, let’s say 81 games each, would that create a better or similar outcome than paying an elite catcher? I’d think two catchers in their 30s could be refreshed from a lighter work load (thinking of Flowers and McCann), and be significantly cheaper than a Realmuto type of catcher.
Keith Law: Probably depends on the players. Some guys would be better with the days off, most wouldn’t, I think.

Sandy Eggo: Can we get a #FreeLuisUrias in the chat to appease #PadresTwitter
Keith Law: I want to be the president of that club.

John: If you were advising a teenager who is equally talented as a pitcher and as a position player, which would you tell him to focus on? Or would you try to have him go 2-way?
Keith Law: Two variables. What does he want to do, and what do teams value more highly? If the world says you’re a pitcher, then get on the mound, son.

Aaron C.: MLB Network’s draft coverage: all the talking! occasionally some draft picks!
Keith Law: I knew time dilation was real, but never experienced it until MLB Network took eleven minutes to get through a five-minute break.

Bill: Fiction: aluminum bats cannot transition to wood.
Keith Law: Well, no, that would be alchemy.

The Internet: WHY ISN’T YOUR 2020 MOCK DRAFT AVAILABLE YET?!!?!?!?!?!
Keith Law: Stop that.

Henry: Keith, just want to say thank you for all of the incredible amount you invested in the draft, including the late night ESPN team post which was excellent and informative.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I worked hard (and late) to make that a longer post this year, so fans of every team had something to read.

Brian: (insert joke about Keith having a short bias)
Keith Law: My bias is not short. It’s like a long, sharp sword.

Brian: Last week you didn’t seem to disagree with a guy who said clutch-ness isn’t a thing. But doesn’t that go against what psychology teaches us? Some people perform better under the most intense pressure than do others. Wouldn’t this apply to sports just like it does medicine, politics, law, etc?
Keith Law: I go with evidence. The evidence says that MLB players do not perform significantly differently in “clutch” situations. It is possible or even likely that players who wilt in those situations never reach the majors, since they face pressure when they’re being scouted and all the way up the minors. But there is no such thing as a “clutch hitter” in the majors, and if you think there is, well, come correct with some facts.

Chris: Just noticed that Hunter Bishop is still just 20y/o. Won’t turn 21 for 3 weeks. Does the fact that he played the entire year at 20 help his projection like Baty’s age hurt him?
Keith Law: Yes.

Tim : I am no scout but even to this amateur eye, Rutledge has one of the shortest arm deliveries I can recall ever seeing. Is this something to be concentrated about?
Keith Law: Teams were concerned about his short arm swing and lack of athleticism. On the other hand, he might have a 7 fastball and 7 slider.

Michael: How does Manoah compare to Mize?
Keith Law: I’m very high on Manoah but Mize is a potential #1 starter with two swing and miss pitches and plus command.
Keith Law: Mize is the best RHP prospect in the minors right now.

Bill: Is there anything to Kevin Newman’s improvement? I know you were high on him out of the draft
Keith Law: I’m chalking it up to the teamwide improvements from hitters now that they changed coaches & approach – don’t think they’re so keen on contact/going the other way as they were in years past.

Joe: On MLB radio today I heard an analyst mention that because of advanced training techniques, more young players will make it to the big leagues sooner. Basically, that much of the training that used to be done in the minors is now being done in high school and college. I was curious to hear your take on this.
Keith Law: False.

Howey: Last night Harold Reynolds said that Jackson Rutledge’s short arm action was probably fine because “catchers throw like that and who’s heard of a catcher getting Tommy John?” I’m still getting over how wrong that statement is
Keith Law: I heard half of that sentence and thought I’d misunderstood the context.
Keith Law: I mean, catchers do have Tommy John, not even that infrequently.

Jeff: Best guess for MLB ETA for Luis Robert?
Keith Law: I think he’ll be up this year. Why not? If he bumps to AAA, keeps hitting, don’t you call him up and see if he can make the 2020 OD roster? I would.
Keith Law: OK, time to start those recaps and maybe walk outside for a minute. I have some personal travel next week and may not chat at all, but I’ll shoot for a Periscope tomorrow during day 3. Recaps go up Thursday and Friday, one league each day, and I’ll look at the new team #1 prospects in a piece next week as well. Thank you as always for all of your questions and the kind words on my draft content this week!

Happy draft day! My latest mock is up for ESPN+ subscribers and I’m updating it throughout the day.

Keith Law: Play to get paid. It’s Klawchat.

PhillyJake: If the Pirates do indeed take Langeliers, will he make it to the majors before Cervelli’s next concussion? Seriously Cervelli should retire for his health. What is Langeliers’ guestimated arrival date?
Keith Law: I’d guess two years out. Defense is ready now. Still questions on the hit tool, but I think it’s reasonable to think he won’t race through the minors.

addoeh: Happy Klaw-smas! That would make late January’s prospect ranking release Klaw-nukah (because it is 8 days).
Keith Law: Can it be Klaw-purim, so then i get cookies?

Bill G: Thanks for all the work you do regarding the draft. How far would Adley drop if he was a 1B instead of a catcher? The bat still plays? Thanks!
Keith Law: Bat plays but he’s no longer 1-1; behind Vaughn and Bleday at least.

Frank Viola: I’m always curious where top international guys would slot in the draft, playing off of that thought – where would you *hypothetically* slot a player like Jasson Dominguez if int. players were draft eligible?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t. He’s 15 (maybe he turned 16 already) and you can’t compare him apples to apples to draft prospects. Unless you’re talking an Ohtani type, there’s no way the top J2 kid in the typical class would even be a first rounder when stacked up against kids who are 17-18 (HS) or 21 (college).
Keith Law: And Dominguez isn’t even a Vlad Jr or Wander Franco.

duhamell: Mason Janvrin at the University of Central Missouri (DII) is having a great season. Hearing lots of rumors here in Warrensburg, but is there any buzz on him?
Keith Law: Zero. D2 or lower bats have an enormous hill to climb to be taken seriously. There’s a kid at Shepherd University (also D2) named Brenton Doyle who got some early buzz because he also has tools, but his entire team is hitting .338/.434/.574.

alex: Could A. Vaughan play 3B credibly (Elias allegedly saw him take grounders there) if taken by the Os ? He apparently has a decent arm (he pitched in his freshman or sophomore year). Thanks
Keith Law: I wrote that the O’s looked at him at 3b. I doubt he can do it but I think it’s worth exploring.

J.P.: Chances Toglia’s name goes off the board in the first? If not, what’s his floor?
Keith Law: Very close to 0% chance.

Ben: Is Misner this draft’s biggest wildcard? How confident are you in his tools?
Keith Law: Bigger wildcards for me are kids like Leiter, Volpe, etc., who may be completely unsignable.

Larry: Are the Indians buyers, sellers or (more or less) “holders” in 2019? I still think they have a shot at a playoff spot, but certainly not bet the house on it.
Keith Law: Should be buyers, but they should have been buyers this winter and weren’t.

Ben: It’s Draft Day — 2020. Who are the top five names to go off the board?
Keith Law: No idea. Let’s survive this year first.

Niel: What is driving the Rangers’ move away from their previous tool-centric draft approach?
Keith Law: I speculated that they may be unhappy with some recent results from toolsy but raw picks high in the draft.

Jim: Not draft related, but I’m curious why there are no southpaw side-armers?
Keith Law: Of course there are.

Spencer: Have you had a chance to scout any of the international players that may be signing this summer? Who’s the cream of the crop?
Keith Law: I don’t cover that market. Jesse Sanchez at MLB does a tremendous job.

Jim: Predict for us – how many Day One guys won’t sign?
Keith Law: Figure two or three will fail their post-draft physicals. Last year we had two first rounders decline to sign for financial reasons – Ginn and McClain – but I think teams will be more conservative in the first round as a result.

Jim: Which of the Siani’s are you higher on? Does Sammy go off the board tonight?
Keith Law: Higher on Sammy, but I hear he may want first-round money, so that could push him to day two.

Mark: How is Brett Baty already 19.5 but still in high school?
Keith Law: I don’t know the specifics, but a kid could have to repeat a year for academic or medical reasons, or perhaps have been enrolled a year later for kindergarten because the parents were concerned he wasn’t ready.

Mark: If Baltimore does not take Rutchman or Witt, who would KC pick? Is there any way in hell Rutchman could fall to the Pads?
Keith Law: I think they’d take Rutschman. They don’t take Vaughn at 2; Bleday is option C, although when you pick 2 option C is sort of silly. There is no way Rutschman gets to the Padres.

Mark: Do you think the Pads could take Lodolo at 6 or are they going to take one of the top 6 hitters?
Keith Law: I’m still betting they take one of the big six.

Red: Just read Smart Baseball, I enjoyed thoroughly enjoyed your book. I imagine a lot of what MLB teams draft on is raw ability. But in your experience, do you find that clubs will split hairs and analyze college/high school players with advanced stats as well? Thanks, I’ll hang up and listen
Keith Law: Most clubs do some of both; the difference is in the balance between the two.

JAS: Is it possible that Espino gets to Houston, and they manage to harness his stuff and improve his mechanics and pitch selection to turn him into the best pitcher in this draft when we look back in 5 years?
Keith Law: It’s possible he gets to Houston, likely they pass on him, and I’d say basically no chance he ends up the best pitcher from this draft.

matt: Bishop/Kirby/Rutledge all feel like pretty good scenarios for the Phillies, and is the sense you’re getting that at least one will fall to them? Not that they would absolutely take one.
Keith Law: I will revise the mock after we’re done here, but they’re not taking Bishop (or the other two). I do think the Phils will get their choice of some pretty good options … Baty, Jung, Langeliers, Carroll if he slips, Wilson. I believe they like Henderson, but I’m lighter on him than the industry, I guess.

BigDaddeh: How much money do you think Shea Langeliers made yesterday?
Keith Law: None.

bombas: do you see the twins cutting a deal under slot?
Keith Law: I know they’ve considered it (why not?) but I think they go slot for Stott or Langeliers.

Esteban: Is Jack Leiter a first rounder if he was 100% certain to sign slot?
Keith Law: IMO, hell yes.

Darryl: How early do you think LHP Miller from Stanford goes? Anyone else likely to be drafted in the early rounds from the Farm?
Keith Law: Miller today. Second round. Others from Stanford are below that.

Adam: Has MLB considered moving the draft until after the college postseason? Not necessarily for additional evaluation (I believe you’ve mentioned the post season and CWS is not the best for that), but to give teams a chance to see what pitchers get abused during this period. Maybe if enough pitchers drop in draft position as a result, colleges, or at least the players, would take notice.
Keith Law: They have; the tradeoff is that it screws up all of short-season baseball, plus the summer leagues when teams scout for next year.

Joe: Pick outside the top ten you feel most confident about?
Keith Law: Hm. 11, 12, 17, 23, 24 … but any or all of those could be thrown off by a player slipping/someone up top cutting an under-slot deal.

Sean: How does the top 5 of this draft compare to recent years?
Keith Law: I think it’s a little weaker.

Adam: Knowing what we know now about Carter Stewart do the Braves have a chance to get a comparable talent?
Keith Law: If they take Carroll, as I had in my mock (if Manoah goes 8, Atlanta would choose between Carroll and Langeliers), they’re getting the #4 player on my board. Stewart, pre-injury etc., was my #2 player. So it’s not too far off.

Andrew V: Hey Keith, love all the work you do around draft time. What caused Bishop to fall a few spots from earlier mocks?
Keith Law: Teams concerned about in-conference performance and a decline in his throwing the last few weeks.

fact or fiction?: I saw Abrams mocked at #10 to the Giants, what are the chances he falls that far?
Keith Law: I don’t believe they’d consider him at all, but he could slip to the teens if the Padres don’t take him (which presumes 1-5 are chalk).

Bill: Hi Keith, thanks as always for the chats. They are my favorite shirking activity each week. Out of curiosity during your time in Toronto, did you have any role to play during the actual draft or were all picks and decision making up to the scouting directors, GM or other management at that point?
Keith Law: I was in the discussions every year but I never made any picks or really any decisions at all. Those were up to Ricciardi and Buckley/Lalonde (the scouting directors).

Jerome: Will you be doing a live video of the draft like last year?
Keith Law: Yes so enough of you asked for it that I’ll do a live Periscope chat (on twitter) starting at 7.

Jim: Best name in the draft?
Keith Law: That has to be Mississippi prep outfielder James Beard. They named a whole award after him!

Daniel: After you ranked him in the top 80, do you know of any teams in on Glenallen Hill Jr. tonight or do you expect him to fall to day 2?
Keith Law: He’s on the 2nd/3rd round bubble.

Ben: Do you think Miami has a lot more variability in what they do at 4 than most people are projecting? They’ve obviously shown a ton of interest in Bleday, but they’re always liable to something crazy or stupid. If so, the whole draft would be turned on its head
Keith Law: I hear a few other names but I am sticking with Bleday.

JR: I am surpised Hunter Bishop isnt being mocked to the Tigers at 5? Is that a reach?
Keith Law: That is a reach, given who else would be there.

Josh: Keith, have you gotten a chance to watch Fleabag yet?
Keith Law: Yes, halfway through S2. The best thing about the whole show is that the guy she sleeps with at the start of episode 1, who comes back in several more episodes, is only credited as “Arsehole Guy.”

Fake Jeremy Sowers: What do you think of JJ Bleday’s defense? I’m always wary of drafting someone on the lower end of the defensive spectrum.
Keith Law: Average to 55.

Gnubs: What’s with the decline in the draft success of the Nats front office? Just picking later in the draft? That didn’t seem to matter before as they picked up later round guys than just Strasburg and Harper.
Keith Law: Have they fared poorly? A few years ago they picked at the end of the first/sandwich and got Luzardo and Kieboom.

Kyle: Do you see any chance Mizzou’s T.J. Sikkema goes in the 1st round? Do you think there’s a chance he slips past Day 1?
Keith Law: Funny, that’s my stealth guy who might just sneak into the late first … I don’t think a lot of teams are on him, but there are clearly a few quietly considering him in the 25-40 range. If you want a college starter, he’s established himself as a legit option after the most famous tier is gone.

Brian: Hey Keith, thanks for doing this chat today. Do you think Jung would be a big overreach for SF at #10? I know you have him rated lower on your top 100.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t take him over the other available options there.

Devon: A few mocks and some chatter suggests that Abrams might be falling a bit? Any insight into why? Just clubs liking the other guys better / cutting deals to go under-slot?
Keith Law: Every scenario I think has a chance to happen right now is chalk 1-6 – the same six guys in different orders. That’s most likely the three college bats in the top 4, Witt 2, Greene 5, which would mean Abrams 6. If someone ahead of San Diego reaches down at all – e.g., the Tigers take Lodolo – then Abrams could slip and I don’t think teams behind San Diego are necessarily planning to take him.

Soto: If you had personally had a choice between Rutledge, Manoah, and Thompson…..who would you pick?
Keith Law: My Big Board ranking of the top 100 prospects in the class answers any of those questions. That’s my personal ‘pref’ list.

Kai: Any idea if it would take well over slot to get Brooks Lee to go pro instead of playing for his dad at Cal Poly?
Keith Law: He’s going to school. I have him ranked on talent, but I’m told he’s going to school, period.

Guest: Keith have you ever been asked to make an appearance on the draft? Maybe in Harold Reynolds role? (Kidding, kind of). If they did ask would you do it?
Keith Law: Of course I would, but because of where I work, it’s unlikely. Mayo and I wanted to do a podcast together about the draft but the powers that be scuttled it.

El Zilcho: How much do you think Stinson will ask for?
Keith Law: Off my top 100 entirely. He can’t really ask for anything more than slot wherever he’s taken given the spring he had. If he wants day one money he’ll have to get his fastball back.

Nick: You seem to be the most optimistic on Corbin Carroll’s power outlook. How many homers do you see him hitting annually?
Keith Law: He’s a 20+ guy for me. Maybe more. Alex Bregman has 48 homers since the start of 2018; I think Carroll has comparable hand strength.

Brian: Hey Keith, if the Giants take Jung at 10, would it likely be an under slot deal?
Keith Law: No.

Kyle: You’ve seen the “Rutschman is the best prospect since Harper” stuff, would he make your top-five draft prospects since 2010?
Keith Law: He might, but no way is he the best draft prospect since Harper. I hate that kind of hyperbole.

Belliard : Is Atlanta/Langeliers buzz increasing or staying steady?
Keith Law: I mentioned him in the mock – him or Carroll, given what I projected 1-8.

Jerome: Do you see the D-Backs drafting Leiter with one of their bazillion picks?
Keith Law: No.

Jim: Will you be doing one more mock before 7pm?
Keith Law: I’ll just keep updating the one that’s already up (I updated it once, I have more stuff to add after this chat).

Feejus: Enjoyed Smart Baseball as well as Mr. Brian Kenny’s “Ahead of the Curve
Keith Law: Thank you! Check out Russell Carleton’s The Shift.

Ignatius Reilly : Rece Hinds profile sounds similar to that of Joey Gallo, the best Rangers first round pick in the Daniels era — could they go back to the well with Hinds at 41/50, or do you think he’s off the board then
Keith Law: Hinds isn’t Gallo. Gallo is a way better athlete, for starters.

Pat: Someone on MLBN just said that Adley and Witt are the best 1-2 he’s ever seen. Why does the crazy train seem to be firing on all cylinders this year? I don’t see how it’s helpful to speaking hyperbolically about these players. Is there a ratings/click strategy to some of this, perhaps? All it does in my opinion is create unrealistic expectations for the fans (So Adley will be a “bust” if he isn’t Bench, and Witt will be a “bust” if he isn’t A-Rod).
Keith Law: Yeah, I hate that … don’t market the draft by making every draft class into the best ever, because people will catch on and just stop listening. Talk about these players as they are.

Jessica: Hi, Keith! Huge fan! How much stock are you putting in the recent buzz that the Royals may now go with Bleday? What are the chances that Bleday falls to the Tigers?
Keith Law: I don’t have Bleday getting past 4, and I know he’s essentially the third option for KC. If, say, Baltimore took Witt (I doubt it) and KC had some concern over Rutschman’s medicals (unlikely), then they could take Bleday.

Jeff: Any chance of the underslot deal for Baty at 3 or 8?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard any real rumors to that effect, just twitter bullshit.
Keith Law: I like Baty a lot but hoo boy, passing on Vaughn at 3 for him?

RJ: ESPN homepage has a link to a Mock 3.1, but it’s time-stamped 7:05 a.m. I assume that’s still 3.0?
Keith Law: No, that’s 3.1 Ignore the timestamps.

Dusty: Can you clarify something? I was under the impression that if Atlanta fails to sign the #9 pick this year, that they would not receive a pick next year (since that pick was already compensation for Stewart from 2018). From what I’ve read today, I may have been mistaken. Do you know for sure what the rule is?
Keith Law: You are mistaken – Atlanta’s pick for Stewart, Arizona’s pick for McClain, and the Dodgers’ pick for Ginn are all protected, so if they don’t sign their picks this year, it rolls one more year. Next year’s compensatory picks would be unprotected.

Jeff: What round range do you expect Zach Huffins, Dalton Rushing, Quin Cotton, & Gabe Holt. Thank you!
Keith Law: Holt in the third; Cotton in the 4th, Huffins maybe 5th-8th (elite runner, not that advanced otherwise), no intel on Rushing.

Dallas: Maybe Langeliers gets a boost from that performance, Garrett Richards was helped in his last college outing by striking out 18 guys after putting up a 5.00 era during regular season.
Keith Law: He wasn’t, though. The Angels were already on him; it’s not like he suddenly threw harder or had a new pitch.

Sean: Did you make it up to see Siani this year? Draft position roughly where you had him ranked?
Keith Law: I saw him, but I don’t think my ranking reflects where he’ll go, since he could want more money than that.

Elliott: Who has the highest scouted tool in the draft? Vaughn’s power?
Keith Law: Greg Jones’ speed.

Andrew: Do you think Shewmake can stay at SS?
Keith Law: I do not.

Bob: Do you think Reds are in on H. Bishop or B. Stott ? Seem to prefer college hitters but not sure if they would value them over Lodolo/Manoah. Thanks
Keith Law: Neither.

Michael: What’s the logic behind JUCO players being eligible right away and others having to play three years?
Keith Law: Protecting college baseball. Why MLB would protect college baseball is beyond me – we still have coaches overusing pitchers and trying to get prospects to matriculate early so they skip the draft.

Mas: Which is more accurate – Keith Law is the Mel Kiper of baseball, or is Mel Kiper the Keith Law of football?
Keith Law: It depends on which of us you think has better hair.

Chuck: I’ve heard comps to Alex Kirilloff fair for Riley Greene. Fair or not?
Keith Law: I do hear huge praise for Greene’s hit tool.

Jeff: Keith – Any updates on players that could fall that LA could scoop up as they’ve done in the past (hopefully this time more Buehler than Kendall)?
Keith Law: This was a bit of why I think they’re a fit for Misner … huge tools, top ten type, who fell on some performance concerns that the Dodgers might think they can fix.

Fake Jeremy Sowers: What are you hearing on Drake Fellows? Top starter for Vanderbilt this year, but kind of an odd year (strong K rate, but 4.34 ERA).
Keith Law: I think he’s a fourth-fifth rounder.
Keith Law: It’s not huge stuff.

Kedelbro: Is Wilson to Twins the backup plan if Stott/Langeliers unavailable?
Keith Law: Yeah, I think that’s about right.

Matt: What do you think is the ceiling for Greg Jones?
Keith Law: He’s more likely a CF than a SS for me, and I really question the hit tool, but it is legitimately game-changing speed, like Billy Hamilton.

A: I don’t understand what “chalk” means in the way you’ve been using it for the top of the draft. Help?
Keith Law: The predicted guys – nobody goes way off the board.

Cole: Where should this ASU student expect Alec Marsh to be picked this year?
Keith Law: Third to fourth round?
Keith Law: Less certain.

Jeff: Do you think only 4 players at the draft hurts the views and buildup at all? Would getting more players not still playing bring more buzz?
Keith Law: It would help to get more guys there, but the timing sucks for it, and at least one of the guys going to Secaucus isn’t going in the first round and might not go at all tonight. That’s not good.
Keith Law: MLBN is in a tough spot.

Jason: You have Carroll at #4 on your list, but you (and the other respectable mock drafters) all have him making it at least to the Braves at #9. What do you see in him that puts him above several of the others in the seeming consensus top 6?
Keith Law: He’s getting crushed for his height and I don’t think it matters.

Bill: Where would Bo Gentry rank in this draft?
Keith Law: He’s in strong consideration at the #2 pick, if Boston doesn’t trade the #1.

Denise: Do you see the mets going for a prep bat or leiter besides all the other pitchers mocked to them?
Keith Law: Not in the first round.

Alex: Any chance anyone meets Tre Fletcher’s number, or is he going to Vandy?
Keith Law: I feel like he’s going to school … it only takes one team, of course, but he seemed to want a big number, and he’s raw, and he hasn’t been easy to see (Maine HS baseball isn’t exactly the easiest to scout).

Curious Reader: Will you be reading Ben Lindbergh’s book “The MVP Machine” coming out tomorrow? I know you Ben has cited you in his works before – were you interviewed for this book?
Keith Law: I have a copy but haven’t read it.

JR: Any chance the Mets can find another Jarred Kelenic like player this year, but not trade him months later for pennies on the dollar (as a Mets fan, that’s going to hurt a long time)
Keith Law: That should hurt, because it was obviously a bad deal the day they did it. The new GM didn’t understand the market value Kelenic had at that moment, and got too little in return for him and Dunn.

BullpenHelp: Thanks for the chat KLaw

Where do you see UConn closer Jacob Wallace being drafted?
Keith Law: I have heard he could go third or fourth but I’d bet after the fifth myself. Straight reliever.

Denise: I have heard that the college pitching crop is the worst in a long time, do you think this is so?
Keith Law: Absolutely. The worst I’ve ever covered/been involved in, and this is my 18th draft.

Jerome: Does your Top 100 account for signability also? I.e. Are some players lower on your board do to their college commitments?
Keith Law: No. I don’t get that info on all players, and sometimes I don’t know if the numbers I hear are real or just smokescreens, so I ignore them.

Nate: Last year the Jays surprised some people by going down the draft board a bit and snagging Jordan Groshans, a pick that (so far) seems to have worked out decently. Any chance they do something like that again and anyone like Groshans they could target? Thanks
Keith Law: Pick looks great right now – he was the lowest-ranked first rounder last year, I think? – but I only hear them on college arms, including Rutledge.
Keith Law: If Manoah is there, I would take him, but I’ve heard they have a very split camp on whether he’s a starter in the long term.

Jscott022: UVa is normally a hotbed for draft talent is there anyone out of Virginia going in the early rounds of the draft this year?
Keith Law: Tanner Morris could go in the third; good hitter without a position. I didn’t put him on my top 100 so I have him as more of a fourth-fifth round talent.

Andy: I wish Carter Stewart luck, but the thought process has been asked about college basketball. Why don’t high school kids go overseas and get paid to play, then come back and get drafted by the NBA. The answer is, because going to a new culture is tough for anyone, especially an 18 year old away from home for the first time, and it’s really fucking hard to play against adults doing it professionally. So again, I hope that lots of kids have huge success in Japan and scuttlebutt the MLB draft, but I won’t get my hopes up.
Keith Law: I agree with everything you said here – and because of the CBA, Stewart would be under the international cap system until he’s 25, so he’d have to be there for six seasons.

Nate: Do you see a team going for a reliever tonight and getting the m up to the majors this year?
Keith Law: No. That’s rarely worked.

Jon: Keith, do you see any future “Aces” in this years draft? Thank you and Happy Draft day!!
Keith Law: I don’t, actually, which is also part of why it feels like a bad pitching draft.

Jakob: Ever read any of Neal Stephenson’s books?
Keith Law: Yes, Snow Crash and the Diamond Age. Not a huge fan.

Collin: What’s the word on Brennan Malone’s landing spots? What’s his range tonight in your opinion?
Keith Law: Seems like something caused teams to steer away from him lately, so he might get to the 30s.

Sriram: Thanks for all the work. The Top 100 shows your rankings – but where do you think the major breakpoints are in your rankings, where you think the tiers are among the prospects.
Keith Law: The big one I’ve highlighted is that I think Vaughn is close to Rutschman, and there’s a breakpoint right after him, before the HS crop. That seems to put me at odds with my colleagues at MLB or Fangraphs.

Collin: Is Jerrion Ealy in play for anyone in the first round? How signable is he based on what you’ve heard?
Keith Law: No, not even close to first round. He’s not very good, and he’s probably going to play football.

Roger: If Abrams does slide into the teens/middle of the first round would it be because most of those teams don’t view him as the top prospect on the board? Or possibly because they’ve already done so much work on other players not really realizing he’d be available?
Keith Law: This is a great question for which I don’t have a great answer, but my instinct is that the second issue is bigger than folks want to admit. If you didn’t really do the work on Abrams, and you have a player or small set of players on whom you did all the work (not just scouting but medicals and meetings and psych tests or whatever) who will be there, do you just say “fuck it!” and take Abrams, or stick with your process? I would probably do the latter unless it were someone who was such a no-doubter like Vaughn.

Nate (Seattle): How many drafted players would be in a mid-season top 50 prospect list?
Keith Law: We’ll see in a month, but I’d guess 5-7. We’ve had a lot of graduations from the pro top 100 already.

JD: What’s the knock on Jung in your opinion? Power?
Keith Law: Yes.

Bill: Do teams legitimately have 1200+ person big boards or are they virtually picking names out of a hat at a certain point?
Keith Law: No, more like 500-600 names. There will be picks on day two where other teams might not even have magnets for those players (on their boards).

Steve: Are you watching Good Omens after the draft? Episode 1 was very solid.
Keith Law: Yes, I saved it for after the draft and after I finish Fleabag. Also still working through Doctor Who … maybe they’ll let a Dalek announce one of the picks in the second round tonight?

Nicholas: Please correct me if I am off-base here, but I normally wouldn’t expect you to rank someone like Vaughn (college RH first baseman) as high as you have him. So the bat is really that good?
Keith Law: It’s really that good, and who in this class might be better, especially once you consider the certainty/proximity of a college position player over a high school player?

Josh: What is the best comp for Vaughn, upside-wise?
Keith Law: I have said a few times I think his swing reminds me of Goldschmidt’s, and the profile overall reminds me of Hoskins’, just in a shorter package.

Andrew: Do any of the three, Goss, Thompson or Wolf make it to Texas A&M?
Keith Law: Matt Thompson might. The others don’t.

Jay: Any chance the A’s take Brooks Lee?
Keith Law: No.

Joe: How do you respond to the claims that Rutschman’s bat is better than Vaughn’s because Adley put up better stats in the same conference?
Keith Law: That’s pretty lazy.

Brian: Is the draft “fun” for you, or is it “work”?
Keith Law: Both of these things can be true at the same time, you know.
Keith Law: OK, I’m going to wrap this up now so I can revise the mock a little (and get a few minutes with my daughter since she’s about to come home from school). I’ll do the live Periscope at 7 pm ET through Twitter, then I’ll write up a day one recap/analysis tonight. Tomorrow’s plan: A YouTube video where I discuss day one with Jeff Passan; a chat in the afternoon, probably at 2 pm. Then I’ll start working up team by team recaps. Thank you all for reading and for all your questions – enjoy the draft!

My latest mock for Monday’s MLB draft is up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: Head in the clouds, your pockets filled with dreams. It’s Klawchat.

Kevin S.: A couple weeks ago in your chat, you mentioned that you felt the “Yankee voodoo” we joke about is actually something they’re doing developmentally that the rest of the league has not caught onto yet. Is it something specific you’re seeing (and if so, what?), or are you inferring this from their successes with guys like Voit and Urshela?
Keith Law: I’m inferring from their success with several hitters (and their ability to get nice velocity bumps from some young pitchers in the low minors), and from other writers’ coverage of the Yanks’ data-driven development approach. I’ve linked to a few things Lindsey Adler has written for the Athletic about this.

Jeff: Keith – Walker Buehler has been, on the surface, a little disappointing to date, but has an FIP in the mid 3s…assume you believe there’s no reason for concern?
Keith Law: As long as he’s healthy, yes, no reason.

alex: Callis said that Witt is the best SS draft prospect since ARod. Other folks have said Adley R. is the best prospect since Harper. Which is more offbase? I know you would pick Adley R. #1 (and I hope the Os do the same since going underslot may not work with the D-Backs and all their picks).
Keith Law: I don’t agree with either assessment – too many questions about Witt’s hit tool, definitely would put a few guys between Adley and Harper (Cole comes to mind, Buxton had absolutely elite tools). I have no issue with the O’s taking Vaughn, which I’ve heard a few times they are seriously considering, to go over slot at 42/71. There are enough good, tough-sign high school arms in this draft to make that work – especially since teams have a decent idea who other teams are on (e.g., we keep hearing that Arizona is on certain HS arms like Priester and Goss).

Jeff: Keith – Who are the most likely players to start falling that the Dodgers might scoop up as they did with Buehler & Kendall?
Keith Law: I mentioned Misner, who is very Kendall-like in his great tools/high strikeout profile but maybe a better pure athlete, in my mock. I bet they go with a good HS player with one pick (Brooks Lee’s name has come up twice with them since I posted the mock) and then take a guy who ‘fell’ like Misner or Zack Thompson.

Teddy: How fixable is Hunter Bishop’s strikeout issue? Is it a mechanical or pitch recognition problem?
Keith Law: Can it be neither?

Teddy: What percent chance would you give Kyle McCann to stick behind the plate?
Keith Law: Close to zero.

Dana: With Didi coming back and Torres moving to second, are the Yanks better off playing Urshela or LeMahieu at third?
Keith Law: Urshela and let DJLM move around.

Steve: Let’s say the O’s cut a deal with Bleday and Witt goes 2, do the White Sox go Vaughn or Rutschman? How much money would Bleday have to save GM KLaw for you to pass on Vaughn/Rutschman there?
Keith Law: I think White Sox would absolutely take Rutschman, but I hear directly conflicting stories on whether they would take Vaughn (what I put in my mock) or Abrams (which I believe Jim Callis & Jonathan Mayo had in their mocks). I keep hearing Kenny Williams is very involved in their draft room, which I don’t exactly understand, and that he favors Abrams. The last time the White Sox had a top ten pick and used it on a high school position player was … 1985.

Mattey: Kingery is starting in CF for the Phillies again today. Is he good enough of a defender to become the everyday player there?
Keith Law: I’ve never seen him do it – he was a CF until his junior year at Arizona, then moved to 2b, where I think he’s a potential 70 defender – but I believe he has the speed and instincts to do it, just not really the ideal arm.

Kevin : Does Tampa call up McKay?
Keith Law: I believe he’ll be up this summer. It’s time for him to give up hitting.

Bobby W: Any idea what the Padres’ pref list order looks like for Vaughn/Abrams/Bleday/Greene?
Keith Law: I don’t think there’s any way Vaughn or Bleday gets to them. Given the two HS hitters, I think they’d take Greene over Abrams.

Pete: Your reports talked about it and it looks clear seeing him hit — Austin Riley is going to strike out a lot. Once regression hits and he slows down, do you still project him as a regular?
Keith Law: 55 defender with his kind of power is a regular, definitely.

Eddy: If your mock had Jackson Rutledge off the board at 9, who would you have given to Atlanta?
Keith Law: Bishop. Texas is the only team ahead of Atlanta I could see taking Rutledge.

Danfromman: It seems that teams put quite a bit of importance on recent performance when evaluating their potential draft picks. Is this not a risk for SSS bias.
Keith Law: Maybe, but the flip side is that players that young tend to change rather significantly even year to year, and underweighting recent performance (and looks) risks missing players who’ve reached a new level of physical or emotional maturity or just learned something new.

Kyle KS: Parks and Rec question, my wife says the episodes with Louis CK are now ruined for her even though the one with Leslie preparing for the date is one of her favorites. She won’t watch those now. I’ll watch them based in the hope they didn’t know about his behavior. I’m not sure if you rewatch shows like this but how would you treat those episodes?
Keith Law: I almost never rewatch shows. I’d be more comfortable watching something from before a creep was outed than watching anything from afterwards. Like, Roman Polanski is terrible, but Chinatown was before he was convicted?

Eddy: What am I missing on Brennan Malone not being higher? Lot of athleticism, velocity, good breaking ball and changeup seems positive. Is he not higher simply because he’s a high school RHP or is there another concern?
Keith Law: HS RHP with good breaking ball, velocity but not life or high spin, not super projectable. I think he’s in the right spot.

Mark: I really do not think there is any reasonable argument to be made for not extending the netting in MLB parks. If it saves 1 life or prevents 1 traumatic injury it is worth it. Where do you think Rutchman, Vaughn, Witt, etc., rank compared to your preseason top 100 minor leaguers?
Keith Law: Rutschman and Vaughn would be top 25 prospects, the next tier (including Witt) might not be top 50. We’ve had a lot of graduations already this year, though, so if I redid a top 100 next Wednesday it would look very different than January’s.

Kyle: Hard Yordan Alvarez moved into your Top 100 yet?
Keith Law: Good example of someone who’d be on it now. So would Balazovic, who was on my ‘just missed’ list in January.

Rick Sanchez: Do you buy Luis Urias’ recent power surge at all, or is it just a product of SSS in a hitter’s environment with a juiced ball?
Keith Law: Power surge, no. High average/OBP, yes, I buy those.

Frank Viola: Wander Franco has been hitting out of his mind recently. How does Franco compare to Vlad when he was same age/level?
Keith Law: Pretty close overall but Franco offers more value beyond the batter’s box while Vlad Jr had (has) the exceptional power.

Moe Mentum: What was your primary motivation to stop eating beef? Also, were there any noticeable acclimatization phases (good or bad) when you first made this dietary change – e.g. fitness level, weight gain/loss, digestion, general health, food budget, shopping habits, etc.?
Keith Law: My daughter and I have an inborn error of metabolism that (boring biochemistry stuff) makes it harder for us to digest red meat. I realize now in hindsight that I felt really crappy after eating beef in particular.

Marshall MN: Are there any “obvious” sign under slot guys that you could see shaking up the top 10? I know you mentioned a couple as it related to the Orioles first pick, but I was just curious if there were any others?
Keith Law: Jung may not be very under-slot but he was the one I had in the mock who’s not top ten talent etc. but could go up there. I think the top ten go pretty chalk, but around the Phillies at 14 the potential for deals opens up a lot.

Marc: Should Pelosi move to impeach Trump and who should the Mets pick at 12? Also, can we get Kelenic back?
Keith Law: Yes, Manoah if he gets there (and he might), and sorry, no refunds.

Chuck: Mr. Klaw, your thoughts on the Carter Stewart news? Is MLB going to have to wake up and pay prospects what they’re worth?
Keith Law: I don’t think this moves the needle at all.

Shawn: Drew Rasmussen is flying up the Brewers system. Is he a top 100 prospect in the next re-tank and do you think he Starts long term or ends up in the bullpen (pen maybe this year?!)
Keith Law: Very few guys have two TJs and stay starters.

Pat: What has Matthew Boyd changed to all of a sudden become so good? Also, if you wereDetroit would you trade him ? 3 1/2 yrs of control left, good fit for SD with that park?
Keith Law: Added a cutter and uses it a lot – as he should as his fastball was unplayable. Martin Perez has done the same this year. Add a pitch and, assuming it’s good, you can become a totally different guy. Boyd wasn’t even a fifth starter for me with his previous repertoire. Now he’s a legit mid-rotation guy (and, apparently, a great, generous person, too).

Eric: did anyone project this kind of power from yelich? i’m a marlins fan, and his skillset was always pure hitting, but always felt he’d be capped at around 20HRs. this is incredible.
Keith Law: I think I’d projected 25+ from him when he was younger but I’m not totally sure. Of course everyone’s hitting more HR now because of the juiced ball.

Tom: Have you seen or heard anything on Forrest Whitley to change your outlook on him? When healthy, could the Astros promote him to see what getting him out of that envirnoment does?
Keith Law: He’s on the IL with a sore shoulder.

Ben: Any new articles can we expect to see from you these next couple days leading up to the draft? Thx
Keith Law: Next mock is Monday. If there’s sufficient news before then, I’ll write, but I’d rather hold smaller news back for the mock.

chauncey: what are your feelings on Andruw Vaughn?
Keith Law: I’m imagining this as Vaughn’s bat and Andruw Jones’ glove and that’s like Mike Trout without the speed.

Jake: Do you see Witt Jr. as a no doubt SS or could he be moved around the diamond based on his athleticism? CF?
Keith Law: He’s a shortstop, that’s no doubt.

Scott: Do you think there is a problem with the offensive explosion in the minor leagues, particularly the PCL? Can a team like Arizona accurately evaluate their players in Reno?
Keith Law: Yes, using the juiced ball in AAA has been a big mistake.

Harper’s Socks: How likely is it that one of the big 6 hitters (Rutschman, Vaughn, Witt, Abrams, Greene, Bleday) is available for the Reds at 7? Who would be most likely to fall and why?
Keith Law: I think those guys go 1-6 in some order and the Reds take Lodolo or, failing that, Kirby.

Eric: have you read michael lewis’ “the new risk?” even knowing that the government agencies under trump were bad, the amount of negligence to vital needs is still jarring.
Keith Law: No, because I think it’s going to just make me more angry at the low-key damage being done to our society and economy in ways that don’t make headlines.

ATL: You gotten any like at Dylan Carlson? Has he made any adjustments that could vault him into the top 100?
Keith Law: I’m a believer. I’d guess he’d make a revised top 100.

jeff: so i realize this injury is sort of murky for Correa, but is it fair to say injuries/durability are a real concern with him at this point?
Keith Law: He needs to come up with better injury excuses. Like, ‘my fiancee and i were trying out the new trapeze in the bedroom and the rope snapped, i’ll secure it better next time.’

Zac: On your prospect big board, there was a comment about Alex Manoah had no flaws in his delivery except he pitches out of the stretch every time, is that a knock against him for he doesn’t have a wind up so you don’t know if there are flaws?
Keith Law: It’s a knock because it’s atypical, but I don’t see why it’s actually bad.

Doug: Kimbrels market is going to explode once he loses the draft pick right?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Kevinkyle: Keith, love your work, thanks for all you do. I always find something interesting in your music recs. Have you ever spent any time listening to jazz or blues music? I grew up on hard rock and metal and somehow ended up enjoying a lot of jazz. Thanks again
Keith Law: I like it but don’t really know it well.

WhiteSoxAndy: Is Lucas Giolito for real? I want to believe. The truth is out there.
Keith Law: Yes. New changeup, tweaked delivery, better focus too. Gave up a 3R bomb in the first the other day and bore down afterwards to dominate.

CD: Based on your mock and Top 100, it appears Oakland would be reaching a bit on Greg Jones. Are you hearing them on any other guys closer to your draft rankings?
Keith Law: Yes – some will be gone, like Will Wilson or Busch, and some would be good value but higher-risk like Goss. They’re on all of them and Logan Davidson too. I just think Jones has a real hit tool question and can’t stay at short.

Will R.: Keith, per your recent mock draft it looks like you have Chicago kid Quinn Preister slipping a bit. His draft stock take a hit lately due to performance?
Keith Law: Not at all. Just that the industry doesn’t love HS RHP.

Michael: Can you explain Bellinger’s success? He hit one HR as a senior in high school. How does he go from that to perhaps the best power hitter in the league in such a short time. Is this projectable for anyone in this year’s draft class?
Keith Law: Swing changed a lot in pro ball. Also I think everyone missed what a great defender he was at 1b and that he could play at least average defense in CF (a really rare combination).

Adam D.: I’m not overly enthusiastic about Bryson Stott to the Giants. Seems like a high floor, low ceiling pick. Would you agree with that, or does he have a chance to be more than an average regular?
Keith Law: I had them taking Bishop, not Stott. I don’t think there’s a scenario where they end up with Stott, because one of Bishop or Manoah probably gets to them. If Bishop goes 9, I’d give the Giants Manoah and the Blue Jays Rutledge, and then Stott still gets to 13.

Aaron C.: What’s the plan for “Klaw-smas Day” (draft day)? TV hits? Running blog-like commentary/diary? Or, should I mind my own damn business?
Keith Law: Doing some TV hits on Baseball Tonight Sunday, then I don’t know about Monday yet. I’ll chat in the afternoon, for sure, and probably live-tweet that evening? I’ll file a day one recap that night for sure and do a second chat Tuesday afternoon after the third round.

Pete: Should the Mets just keep playing Dom Smith in LF until Nimmo returns so he gets regular reps for the time being or is it not worth the defensive hit the team would take?
Keith Law: They’re not going to the playoffs this year so I’d play him – and tell him his defense doesn’t matter, just worry about hitting – and let him get more at bats.

James: Is Dustin May a future #1? Separately, can he be useful in relief for LA later this year?
Keith Law: I feel like more #2 than #1 due to delivery but I wouldn’t be shocked if he turned into an ace in time. Great athlete with ridiculous shit.

Tom: Any scuttlebutt on who the Red Sox may their eye on at #43?
Keith Law: Very little, but I did hear them connected to the two hitters at U of Arizona, Quintana and Cannon. They’re just so far down that I don’t hear much gossip about them.

Dan: Hey Keith, thanks as always for the chats! I know we’ve established that ‘clutchiness’ doesn’t exist but what about the really extreme hot streaks? I’m talking about Arietta’s 2015 second half (0.75 ERA/0.727 WHIP in 107 IP) or Yelich’s 2018 second half (.367/.449/.770, 25 HR in 65 games). Are these guys just seeing the ball exceptionally well or have perfect arm action for months at a time? Or is this a mix of talent and a lot of luck in not having a bad stretch of games? I guess what I’m getting at here is if you’re up against one of those guys when they’re on a roll like that, is their recent hot performance a predictor of future performance?
Keith Law: The smaller the time period, the more frequent extreme performances will be.

Mark: do you have more faith in the Giants talent evaluation this draft than you have in the past?
Keith Law: Did I ever say I didn’t like their evaluations? I may not have loved some of their high picks but I don’t remember ever questioning their scouting staff.

Jordan: Will JJ Bleday be an above average regular in the MLB?
Keith Law: I think so. He might have the strongest hands/wrists in the draft. Even with that hitch in his swing, he can drive the ball to all fields like it’s nothing.

Teddy: Can you expand on your response to the Hunter Bishop strikeout question? Are you saying you don’t think he has a strikeout issue, or it’s not clear what the cause is?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s mechanical or some kind of lack of pitch recognition.

Jonathan: Cameron Cannon has hit very well in college in this year. Thoughts on where he might go in the draft and is the knock on him his defense?
Keith Law: Specifically that he has no position, but he can hit.

Jeff: Do you agree that it’s best to combat anti-vaxxers with debate and not censorship? I ask because the refusal to debate/ growing push to censor them seems to empower them and even give credence to their ridiculous claims among those who are on the fence, at least in my small sample.
Keith Law: The best way to combat them is to ban nonmedical exemptions, and then educate the few people who fight it.

Matt Klentak: Keith, My track record in the draft is below-average. Who should I draft at 14?
Keith Law: I’ve heard them with all manner of players – I think my last list for them had a college bat, a HS bat, a college arm, and a HS arm. I’d like to see them not play it safe because that hasn’t worked well for them.

Alex: You mention the Nats routinely take “famous” players. Any reason or method to that for them?
Keith Law: It’s worked kind of well for them. Their record with first and supplemental-round picks is quite good.

Ed: Please tell me the Padres aren’t going with another arm in round 1
Keith Law: I only listed them with bats in my mock.

Rick Hahn: Coming into today’s game Zach Collins is hitting .248/.375/.522, which is very similar to Adam Dunn’s line with the Reds .247/.380.520. Is Dunn a good hitting comp for Collins, who looks to be a 3 true outcomes type of hitter.
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re close.

Mok: Do I have this right according to the party of science: misgendering someone or even being slightly skeptical of vaccines is literal violence, but killing an unborn child is “reproductive rights”?
Keith Law: No, you don’t have it right. And I don’t think it matters to you that you’re wrong.

JP: The Rays struggling to break 6,000 fans while playing .640+ ball is probably a harbinger of the future of baseball in St Petersburg, right?
Keith Law: Agreed. I’d really like to see them moved to another market at this point. Everyone says Portland but I keep banging the drum for Austin.

Brian: Keith, I understand that Wilmington is a tough park for hitters but the lack of contact by the Royals hitting prospects is alarming. When watching their games does something stand out why the contact rate is so poor among all their hitters?
Keith Law: Each is swinging and missing in a different way. Matias is the most alarming because he just swings really hard without any sign that he’s distinguishing pitch type or location.

JP: Klaw you’ve mentioned that you are in the final year of your current contract. Do you have an idea when we might know more? Not sure when my Insider/+ subscription expires but my decision to renew will basically be contingent on your status.
Keith Law: I don’t think I can answer that publicly, but thank you very much for the kind words.

Matt: Can you believe Trump is this petty and childish? Even though you hate *my favorite team* even I know you would never ask them to cover the name when you go to a game.
Keith Law: The next team to go to the White House after winning some championship should all show up in jerseys that say “MCCAIN.”

Michael: If someone had picked Trout top 5, how much grief would they have gotten?
Keith Law: I think a lot, between Billy Rowell (9th pick in 2006 from south Jersey, total bust) and Trout’s profile (white-right-right high school outfielder from the northeast, hits a lot of old scouting stereotypes).

Brian: Sorry if this is a dumb question but when you review board games do you play with other people or ride solo?
Keith Law: Not dumb at all! I play everything with at least one other person unless it’s a true solo game. Usually I try to play anything that plays 3+ with at least three people.

Gerald: Sports talk radio here in Arizona is so old fashioned and bad – also the main guy here ‘gambo’ says “wow NO WAY the Dbacks should have to eat Grienke salary in a trade” what he doesn’t realize is we would get better prospects in return, right ? And with this many high draft
Keith Law: He’s not good. I won’t go on their station because he slandered me on air. Your take is correct: if they pay more of the salary, they’ll get a better return.

James: Your tweets suggest that anyone who doesn’t want nets around the field has no feeling. I attend many games with my children, whom I generally like and desire to keep safe. And yet I hate the idea of nets from pole to pole. You cannot regulate away every risk, and the incidents of injury like we saw last night are extremely low. More people get hurt walking around the park than by batted balls. The nets would have a significant effect on the feel of the game and my enjoyment of it. It’s not cold-hearted to think that.
Keith Law: I sit behind nets all the time and I don’t notice them any more at all. Your brain will learn quickly to filter it out.

Steve: It feels like Anthony Volpe is destined to be a great player that is drafted too low, doesn’t it?
Keith Law: I do not get that feeling, no. I think he’s a fine prospect who’ll be a great college player, but his tools are limited. You have to absolutely believe he’s going to hit to feel as you do.

J: I know we’re mostly on the draft tip today, but thoughts on Devin Smeltzer and Zack Plesac moving forward this season?

Also, is Smeltzer-Plesac an 80’s jazz fusion band, or a chemical company?
Keith Law: I’m in on Plesac – had him 14th in Cleveland’s system last year, talked him up as a possible starter – less so on Smeltzer, who seems like a reliever to me.

Andrew: Difference between Nate Pearson his draft year and Jackson Rutledge this year?
Keith Law: Pearson was (is) a better athlete with a better delivery, I think. Rutledge is fortunate to come out in a way weaker draft and probably benefits from how good Pearson’s been.

Brian: Will you be Periscoping the draft again this year? If so, what will be your drink of choice?
Keith Law: If there’s demand, then yes, I’ll do that

Sue: Corbin Burnes has really struggled for the Brewers. They say they will still give him the chance to be a starter. Do you still believe he has a high ceiling as a starter?
Keith Law: I do, completely. Some absurdly bad luck, and very poor location on four-seamers. The former will work out in time; the latter is entirely fixable.

Andrew: Is there precedent/comp to J.J. Bleday’s swing? You mentioned he looks like he’s swinging an axe in your top 100 big board which scares me and that was enough for me to put Hunter Bishop ahead of him.
Keith Law: Hunter Pence’s hitch was worse, as I recall it from when he first came up.
Keith Law: He worked out OK.

Jerry Dybzinski: Are you related to Vance Law?
Keith Law: No, but Ty Law is my first cousin.

Chris: What’s the knock on Goss in the draft ?
Keith Law: None beyond that he’s a high school right-hander.

Andrew: Thoughts on high school prospect Jason Hodges?
Keith Law: If he’s signable, I think he’s a third-fifth round talent.

Austin: Have you seen any improvements with Adam Haseley or is this just Reading at it’s finest?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen Reading, but I have not heard about any positive changes to his swing that would make me think this is real.

Eric: What is considered success for an organization for a top-10 (or first-round) pick? Make it to the majors? Be a regular? Be an all-star?
Keith Law: If you get a regular position player or mid-rotation starter at picks 2-10, you did well. At 1, you should shoot for a star.

Chris P: Where does Leiter need to be taken to pry him away from Vandy? I’m assuming he’s not good enough to go top 15, so he’s off to school.
Keith Law: The consistent rumor is that he’d sign with the Yanks or Mets but no one else. What that might cost, I don’t know. I don’t even know if that’s accurate, but I keep hearing it.

MJ: Alek Thomas on course for the next 100?
Keith Law: Yes. I had him as a first-round talent last June and so far he looks like he was one.

Greg: Now that it looks like Pedroia is done…Do Utley, Pedroia, and Cano all go to the HOF? Does Utley benefit the most from retiring first?
Keith Law: I’m going to guess none of the three get in. Utley may have the best case.

Eric: Byron Buxton is fun and awesome. No question, just wanted to remind everyone.
Keith Law: I agree. One of the most exciting players to watch today.
Keith Law: Hell, the Twins are *fun* as a whole.

Jeff: If the padres wind up with Vaughn would it be to eventually trade him? Hope for the DH in the NL?
Keith Law: Or to think they can dump Hosmer at some point?

Brother: Deivi Garcia: how short is too short? What chance does he have of actually starting in MLB?
Keith Law: Not too short. He’s like 6′. He might be too slight, but that’s another question.

Sean: Please start promoting Dr. Gunter’s upcoming book, already have one pre-ordered.
Keith Law: I have a copy but haven’t read it yet.

Lobster Klaws: Sorry if this has been asked, but have you tried the Impossible Burger? I want to try it, but fear that by the time they get it into supermarkets, the price will be too high. Same reason I don’t buy bison (which is better than regular ground beef in some regards).
Keith Law: Yep, it’s really good.

HugoZ: Seriously, you think Polanski suddenly became a pervert in 1977?
Keith Law: No, I think that’s when he got caught. (I’ve actually seen The Pianist, which came out way after 1977, but the idea of considering the sins of the artist when choosing what art to consume hadn’t even occurred to me yet. I do still struggle with those decisions, especially when it comes to works of art that are acknowledged classics and highly influential, meaning that you have a hard time talking about contemporary works without knowing what came before.)

Pat: If you had to handicap it, what are the chances the O’s take Adley? 85%? Worse?
Keith Law: 50/50.

Mike: How big of a mistake/reach would it be in your opinion if the White Sox take Abrams?
Keith Law: Since Vaughn will be on the board in that scenario, then yes, it’s a significant mistake. And I don’t say that very often in the draft. They’d just be passing on a much better player to take someone who is very risky, and their history with players like Abrams (prep kids with a couple of plus-plus tools but questions about their ability to hit) isn’t as good as it is with college players.

Teddy: We’re seeing young player after young player get to Atlanta. Why did Anthopoulos fire the guy responsible for picking those players in Bridges?
Keith Law: He didn’t fire him, and I do not believe AA would say anything negative at all about Bridges’ drafts (which, as you say, were good at the time and look even better now).

PhillyJake: As the parent of a high school student, I’ve read lots recently about adjusting the start time of the school day. Minor league baseball has lots of kids just post high school in America, and high school aged in the DSL (and others, I’d bet) Is there word they’ve seen these studies and have adjusted their schedules for these kids?
Keith Law: I know several teams that have tried to teach prospects more about the importance of sufficient, high-quality sleep. Unfortunately games that run to 10:30 or later aren’t conducive to maintaining good sleep hygiene.

NHSI Guy: Hi Keith. No question. I’m the guy you spent like 20 minutes talking with as we walked out of the NHSI together in April. Because of work, I’m rarely available to read your chats live, so this is my first chance to say I enjoyed our chat and thanks for your generosity.
Keith Law: You’re quite welcome. I enjoyed our chat!

Pat: Have you heard any concerns about Rutschman’s shoulder? I’ve read that he had to stop playing quarterback in HS as a result, but I don’t know if that’s a nothingburger or not. Do teams have access to medicals before the draft?
Keith Law: I’ve heard that there is a medical report on him teams will see, but whether it’s a real issue, I don’t know and likely wouldn’t say unless folks like Callis/Mayo discuss it first (since they’re affiliated with MLB). I am very uncomfortable discussing non-public medical reports prior to the draft.

Joshua: How quick do you think Shea Langeliers could move up and play in the majors? Thanks Keith
Keith Law: I think his defense would be ready quickly, but his bat may be 2-3 years away.

Jack: How quickly does Rutschman reach the majors?
Keith Law: He should be up by the end of 2020.

Mose Allison Brie Larson: RE: netting from foul pole to foul pole – in Japan, where baseball is nearly a religion, they employ such a set-up. No one minds any all, and having attended games there, I can opine that it takes nothing away from the in-person experince.
Keith Law: It’s the most specious of complaints, and the benefit is reduced injuries.

Sam: What’s the highest spot you see Keoni Cavaco going?
Keith Law: I could see him going in the 25-35 range. Maybe the Dodgers or Cubs.

Adam D.: This is a bit of a crazy idea, but given how loaded the 2020 class is, would it make any sense at all for a team picking in the top-10 or so to pick one of the likely un-signable kids safe in the knowledge that not signing them means multiple first round picks next year?
Keith Law: No. People suggest that frequently in drafts that seem down, but 1) next year’s draft could always turn out to be worse than we think 2) a player today is worth a lot more than a player a year from now and 3) the GM/director in question could always lose their job before they get that extra pick.

Joe Don: In Mock 2.0 you report hearing that Texas could be changing from its long-standing preference for high-ceiling draftees. How come? The game is changing (TTO)? Disappointment with past results (Dillon Tate)? Something else?
Keith Law: They haven’t had great results with players like Jenkins or Thompson in recent drafts … maybe they’d take those players with lower picks, and try to lock in value with safer guys when drafting this high?

Joules: Draft periscope please!
Keith Law: Well, I guess that settles it. I’ll do a Periscope Monday, depending on whether TV needs me at all.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – I’ll be back to chat again Monday afternoon after my final mock is posted. I’ll also be offline for a bit this weekend (longtime readers know why), so I may be less visible here or on social media. Thanks as always for all of your questions!

Keith Law: Let the melody shine. It’s Klawchat.

Rob D: Is Adley a better prospect than Posey was in his draft year?
Keith Law: No, not in my opinion. I do think there are scouts/execs who disagree; Posey wasn’t projected to hit for as much power as he did, and Adley is a better defensive catcher right now than Posey was on draft day, but I think Posey was a much better pure hitter at that time.

Mark: Has Anthony Kay pushed into a top 100 guy? Seems like his stuff is back and maybe better than ever.
Keith Law: Stuff is back, healthy, don’t think the stuff is any better but he needed more time to recover his command and be able to hold his stuff deep into games. I’m like a broken record on this but not every guy who has TJ comes back fresh as a daffodil the moment he returns to pro ball. Some guys take way longer, some need a second surgery (Espinoza and Ragans already this year), some just never come back.
Keith Law: Anyway, yeah, Kay’s pretty damn good.

TC: what has been the craziest/most intense high school or college game you have ever scouted at?
Keith Law: I saw Byron Buxton create the tying run in the bottom of the 7th with his speed when I saw him in HS, in Baxley, Georgia, and his team ended up walking it off a few batters later. I think it was an important game for the team and there were far more people there than at almost any other HS game I’ve ever attended.

addoeh: How many Republicans will look the other way when Trump inevitably ignores both the Courts and Congress with regards to investigating his finances?
Keith Law: All of them? All of them. Susan Collins will express her concern, though.

Eric: Barring an unexpected drop by Adley, is Abrams the pick at 3 for the White Sox?
Keith Law: He’s a possible pick. If 1-2 are Adley-Witt, I think the White Sox would choose between Vaughn and Abrams. They’ve been linked to HS guys a few times in recent drafts only to revert to college on draft day.

Justin: A couple of years ago you correctly predicted the twins regression after a hot start to the season, any thoughts on the team this year?
Keith Law: Legit. I said this winter I thought they were a more likely contender than people thought. Granted, I don’t think they hit 400 homers this year or whatever they’re projected to hit, but I do think they are a 90+ win team.

addoeh: Would you ever take your dog to a bark at the baseball park promotional event?
Keith Law: I don’t have a dog but if I did I wouldn’t, mostly because I’d be so focused on the dog that I wouldn’t enjoy the game. I was at a Wilmington game recently and sat next to a very large, sweet-tempered dog … who just didn’t like this one other dog who kept walking past us and so he’d briefly lose his mind.

Phil: Hey Keith. Has Gio Urshela made sustainable changes or is this still small sample size?
Keith Law: Both of these things can be true at the same time.

Jesse B: What are your thoughts on the season Dylan Carlson is having so far?
Keith Law: That kind takes some really exceptional at bats for his age.

Matt B: I know you weren’t a fan of how Jim Penders handled his pitchers, but Anthony Kay and Tim Cate are having darn good years this season. What are you seeing or hearing on them?
Keith Law: Answered a little above, but I think those guys are succeeding in spite of Uconn’s handling of them.

Damien : Has Giolito finally arrived?
Keith Law: I’m in. It’s weird, the guy who kept asking me in chat when I was going to admit that Giolito would never be more than a fifth starter hasn’t asked me that in a long time.

Jeff: Any truth to the underslot deals for Brett Baty in the top 10 that’s going around? He seems to be either be loved or down on the board because of his age.
Keith Law: I never want to say never, but I don’t think he goes that high. If he were 18, then yes, he’d go top ten, we might even talk about him as a top five talent. But analytical models are going to destroy him for his age. Part of me wonders if that’s too extreme because we simply don’t have comparables – when was the last really good HS position player who was 19.5 or more on draft day?

Brian: I know you’ve commented on the Phillies disastrous first round picks in recent weeks. But is it a little early to give up on Moniak at 21? He’s had a very good May after a strong second half last year & his power is up, with it actually being better on the road than at Reading.
Keith Law: Avoid that kind of thin-slicing unless you know of an actual mechanical or physical change to justify it – and there isn’t one here.

G: So..this version of Josh Bell came out of nowhere, huh? I don’t recall ever seeing raw power grades on him equating to the types of bombs he’s hitting lately.
Keith Law: I think he’s always had that kind of power, but didn’t execute in games in a way that would get to it – like many Pirates hitters he was more focused on contact and going the other way until this year.

Matt: How does a guy like Torres hit 10 HR’s vs 1 specific team but 2 vs the rest of MLB? Is it SSS or is he able to see the ball better in Baltimore?
Keith Law: There is no “see the ball better in” park X. The Orioles’ pitching is kind of terrible. I also think Gleyber’s pretty good, BTW.

Jeff: First player to the big leagues from the 2019 draft?
Keith Law: I think Vaughn and Rutschman will move very quickly, or a polished starter like Manoah. I don’t see a reliever who’s going to fly through a system (and half the time that doesn’t work anyway).

Chris: How do you think Kevin Cron will fare in the major leagues?
Keith Law: I think he’s going to strike out way too much. Those 21 HR are a function of real power + Reno’s ridiculous environment + AAA using the silly ball now.

Dylan: Stupid question that likely only I am interested in – any thoughts on which potential top 5 pick has the most fantasy upside?
Keith Law: Abrams, if he goes top 5, has 80 speed and might be a 30-40 stolen base guy. Rutschman I suppose has a lot of value as a catcher who should hit 20-25 HR a year.

Nate: If Bryan reynolds has below average power and can only play left field can he still be a major league starter?
Keith Law: I don’t think either part of your premise is true.

Cw: Who do you think is the ideal fit in the draft for the Phillies system?
Keith Law: The best player available.

Paul: So glad to see your expectations for Devers come true. Approach, conditioning and natural skills all coming together now!
Keith Law: Still young, too. More power to come.

Jeff: Is Bobby Witt’s age any concern too or is he that good where it won’t end up mattering in the top 5?
Keith Law: I think that his age should be a little more of a concern and Baty’s should be a little less, but that neither guy should be eliminated or massively downgraded for it. Witt’s good. Baty’s good. Their age is one variable among many. I also think Witt’s going 2 so it’s probably not affecting him at all.

Bradley: Congratulations on staying aboard the Giolito train. White Sox fans have to be feeling very encouraged after his start to the year and especially last night. Does he still have the TOR potential that was expected of him as a prospect? Ceiling?
Keith Law: I do think he does, especially with that plus changeup he’s using now.

88 Skis: Lots of talk about the Rangers going under-slot at 8, overslot at 41 and/or 50. Assuming they go underslot at 8, who are the names we should be watching for them to go over for with the next two picks?
Keith Law: Yes, I’ve heard this, but then again the advisers of the players they’ve supposedly tried to negotiate deals with already say nothing of the sort has happened. I think this is more Texas casting a wide net, knowing that they may not get anyone they love if 1-7 all go with slot guys.

Kevin: Buxton looks like a bust for former #1 prospect. Why everyone projects he will hit for average and power in the minors?
Keith Law: Buxton has a 111 wRC+ and 1.6 fWAR already this year. Did you type this question in February and only hit send today?

MMitchell: What do you make of teams no longer waiting until the projected Super 2 cutoff to call up premium prospects. Should the Astros move on Yordan Alvarez now?
Keith Law: Where would they play him?

Ker Pal: When you worked for the Jays, were you aware that Victoria Day was a big deal in Canada? The tone deafness of giving your only attraction (Vlad) a routine day off on one of the biggest attendance days of the year was pretty incredible.
Keith Law: I was made aware of it by the Canadian natives in the office, so, yeah, this was a surprising choice by the team.

joe random: have the Giants been linked to any player in particular?
Keith Law: A lot of players, including a couple of HS arms (Allan), and Hunter Bishop if he gets there.

Jeff: 2 former SS to play for us. Who is the more surefire big leaguer? Shewmake or Will Wilson?
Keith Law: Wilson, I think.

Beau: Why do you think so many teams/ scouts missed on Franmil. What has he changed?
Keith Law: He changed his approach midyear 2018, after a demotion to AAA. Before then, he was overly aggressive and very vulnerable to breaking stuff. He came back a different guy.
Keith Law: He went from someone I tabbed as a low-OBP fourth OF before 2018 to one of my breakout picks for 2019 (so far, that one looks good).

romorr: Have you heard of any concrete changes to the Orioles pitching philosophy in the minors? Some guys are putting up some huge K numbers than before, and a few control/command guys are walking more.
Keith Law: No and I saw Frederick’s whole rotation but one and I don’t think anything has changed there … they just have some good arms. No bats though.

Jeff: How close was Quin Cotton to the top 100? 4th OF or future starter if it all works out?
Keith Law: Fourth OF most likely. In the next 20-30 names.

Jarred Kelenic: How good will i be and will trading me be one of the Mets’ worst moves ever?
Keith Law: Frequent all-star and yes. Dunn’s good too.

Mike: How can we get legislators to understand that giving huge subsidies (tax breaks, cash incentives and gifted municipal property) is a really, really bad idea that does not pay off economically in any way, shape or form?
Keith Law: Only by voting them out every single time. For now, legislators see it as a way to stay in office.

Eric: Best way to cook a whole chicken?
Keith Law: Spatchcock.

Zac: Has Jake Rogers changed his approach this year or is it a case of SSS?
Keith Law: SSS.

G: Have you watched Fleabag season 2? Easily my favorite show of 2019 so far. Phoebe Waller-Bridge is so talented it makes me angry with myself.
Keith Law: That’s my next binge-watch, actually. She’s amazing. I’m also still working through Doctor Who, of course.

Jordan: Who will win the Indy 500 on Sunday?
Keith Law: It won’t be the measles! http://www.espn.com/racing/indycar/story/_/id/26807623/indy-500-offici…

Ryan: Will Gore be the #1 pitching prospect in baseball at the start of next year?
Keith Law: Probably … depends on whether Whitley turns his season around and gets the call.

Cape Guy: Where do you see Tyler Dyson being drafted? Was impressed with him this summer at Falmouth but looks like there was some regression at UF.
Keith Law: I don’t think he goes in the top three rounds. He could fall to the eleventh if he still wants top 100 kind of money.

Ant T: Who are the Mets most linked to at 12?
Keith Law: College guys, mostly, a bat if one falls, an arm like Manoah or Kirby if not.

romorr: Zac Lowther continues to pitch well, chances he is more than a back end guy? Dreaming of a Hall, Rodriguez, Lowther 1-2-3.
Keith Law: More back-end guy with the marginal stuff but a good/fun one. Some #4/#5 starters are just more fun to watch than others.

Josh: Did Buck’s abuse of Bundy in 2016 contribute to what he is now, or do you think the damage was already done and this is the best version of Bundy that could possibly manifest given his injuries?
Keith Law: I think it is impossible to separate the two. He was overused badly in HS, leading to elbow and shoulder injuries, then came back quickly and was forced into a heavier workload than you’d want for someone with his history.

Josh: Zach Plesac have a chance to be a mid rotation type or more back end?
Keith Law: That sounds like his range of outcomes, barring injury.

mark: If Vaughn is the only “top 6” hitter left at 6 , who do you think the Padres take?
Keith Law: They should take him, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they passed for Lodolo and the Reds took Vaughn.

Hank: Biggio is coming up, and he wasn’t on your top 100. He has good numbers, but I know you say not to scout the stat lines. So what is it about him that you (and others) feel sets him apart from others with similar numbers, and what can we expect in the majors?
Keith Law: I’ve seen him a lot and he has never hit decent quality pitching. It’s dead-pull power, not a good feel to hit, with a passive approach, and he has no real position.

Alex Failla: Has Kevin Newman recaptured the magic he had at the Cape? Bat has looked good this year, and he looks smooth at SS. I know, SSS, but it’s been promising. I feel he’s been overlooked.
Keith Law: I was always a fan, so I’m probably too inclined to say yes … but yes.

Paul Q: It is fairly common in the other Big 3 professional leagues for a college coach to make the leap to the pro’s. Would that ever be feasible in baseball, and if so, who are some of the coaches you think are potentially most capable?
Keith Law: Several college pitching coaches have done so recently and I think that’s the most likely pipeline, rather than head coaches, who make a lot of money at top colleges and may not see the benefit.

TP: Kevin Cron a guy or a GUY?
Keith Law: No, just a guy.

Jeff: Do you think rushing a guy like Ryan Wagner to the bigs hurt his career or it was bound to happen? Thank you!
Keith Law: He was a blowout risk from the start, so moving him quickly was a good idea, but he had about 9 minor league innings before he reached the majors – because the GM at the time was trying to not get fired – and that part did hurt him.

Timothy: Sorry if I missed it but did you give your thoughts on Stewart going to Japan?
Keith Law: Yes, on Buster’s podcast. Until Stewart signs a contract, this is all hypothetical – and could be posturing. I want to see the draft abolished, but I don’t think this is the right test case, and I believe Stewart is walking away from a non-guaranteed but potentially much higher payday in the US. He would benefit far more from going into an MLB farm system and getting the coaching he needs – he regressed badly this spring, in part a function of going to a JC without any track record of developing players because he could stay at home, and a pro system would likely straighten him out (literally!) in short order.

Alan: Any chance Mets could go underslot at 12 and float Leiter to round 2?
Keith Law: If the rumored ask for Leiter is true, then no. I’ve heard he might only consider the Yanks or Mets, or that he wants a top 5 bonus, or that he’s unsignable at any price.

Chad: I remember you not being high on Ryu when he first came over. Was that a miss or has something changed that has allowed him to pitch like an ace since coming back from injury last year?
Keith Law: He’s thrown a lot harder here (when healthy) than he did there or even when I saw him that first spring training, when he was working 87-90.
Keith Law: Didn’t one of the other Dodgers pitchers also teach him a curveball? I have a vague recollection of that. He was a big changeup guy in Korea.

Matt: Since reaction time slows when you age, do you think the day is coming where it will be rare to see a player over 30? At some point, pitchers are throwing too hard for the hitter to react in time.
Keith Law: It’s already starting to happen. Rare might overstate it, but this is becoming more and more a young hitter’s game.

Eric: Man, Keith, you totally got got by that guy trying to Old Takes Expose you by saying [checks notes] … Gleyber Torres was the second-best prospect in all of baseball when he was 20?
Keith Law: That was a strange one. Don’t people know Fred (the guy behind OTE) is pretty sharp, and tries to highlight the most egregious takes?

BigDaddeh: Is this version of Joey Gallo real?
Keith Law: The .400+ BABIP won’t last but as an above-average to star-level offensive player, yeah, I’m in.

Tone Deaf: How about the Cubs starting Addison Russell on Women’s Empowerment Night.
Keith Law: The most tone-deaf of all.

Josh: Thank you for never sticking to sports
Keith Law: You’re welcome. It sort of amazes me when (a small fraction of) people think you can separate sports from the rest of the world. Sports encompasses politics, race, gender, economics, even a little science. There are no silos any more.
Keith Law: Maybe there never were.

Blake F: Usually in the draft, the Nationals like to go for players who have dropped a little due to injury and chase their ceiling. But I can’t see an obvious candidate for that at #17, so where do you see them going in round one?
Keith Law: Next mock will be Tuesday but I think there will be enough famous, higher-ceiling guys around for that pick that they’ll get a typical Nats guy.

Brian: The Phillies system seems to be off to a rough start. But are there any players who you have heard good things about in the first two months?
Keith Law: Unfortunately the answer was Spencer Howard but he’s still on the IL.

AJ: Which 2nd base prospect do you think will stick this year – Biggio or Urias?
Keith Law: Biggio isn’t a 2b.

BigDaddeh: What’s the deal with this Callihan that the Yankees are connected to? Seems like a stocky LH hitter with no real defensive position?
Keith Law: One of the best pure hit tools in the class. Stocky might be misleading – he’s strong, and not fat or heavy or anything.

paul q: Niche request, but who are some of the top prospects coming out of the AAC this year and what are their landing spots?
Keith Law: Hoese could get into the first round, very likely top 40. Brickhouse and Feoli should go in rounds 3-4.
Keith Law: (I had to look at the list of AAC schools. I’ll never keep that conference straight.)

Paul: On the earlier question about Vlad, would the front office ever relay to a manager not to bench a certain player – or advise them to bench that player on the road?
Keith Law: Of course. All the time.

Joe: Martin Pérez? Real or fake?
Keith Law: I think the breakout is real. Using that cutter like a third of the time (HT to Aaron Gleeman for tweeting that stat) and it’s a legit weapon for him – especially since his lack of a real average breaker was always a problem.

Eric: If you were Rick Hahn/Nick Hostetler and Adley and Witt were off the board, who would you select?
Keith Law: Vaughn. Big gap between him and next best available player.

Dylan: Does Gilolito getting it back together cement your status as not just a genius but certainly a very stable genius at that?
Keith Law: I’m very calm. Aren’t I calm? Dylan, tell them I was calm.

Rick: I’m having my “no more kids” surgery next week and figured that weekend would be a good time to start getting back into reading. What are a couple of good, immersive/enthralling books you’ve read over a few-day span recently that you’d recommend?
Keith Law: Shame Alex Speier’s book Homegrown isn’t out yet – I just tore through it in about 36 hours. Lisa Halliday’s Asymmetry and John Carreyrou’s Bad Blood are two of the best books I’ve read this year.

Adam: We got Pandemic, got Catan, got Ticket to Ride – family loves all of them. What’s the next family game to get?
Keith Law: Splendor, Azul, Stone Age (longer playing time), 7 Wonders (I think you need kids to be at least 10 to grasp it).

Joe: Too early to give up on Austin Hays?
Keith Law: I don’t want to, but he looked terrible rehabbing here with Frederick.

jbar: Higher upisde, Michael Busch or Logan Davidson?
Keith Law: Davidson has more upside but I would pick Busch.

Eric: Bundy’s high school coach is who should be to blame, right?
Keith Law: Yes, but his father has to take some of that too – especially when, at the time, he would talk openly about how durable Dylan was.

Ridley Kemp: ’bout time The Verve got some love (and money).

As an unabashed fan of Good Omens, I have to ask: Did you laugh when you got to the bit about the four other bikers of the apocalypse? That one gives me the giggles every time.
Keith Law: Yep, that was a bit of genius. The book is a little uneven, unsurprising with two authors and a bit of a slapdash premise, but there are some parts that are really brilliant.

RJ: In the scenario where Vaughn falls to Detroit, I assume you’d take him over Greene?
Keith Law: Yes. I would probably take Adley 1, and then if he’s gone, Vaughn would be the next name I’d take over anyone. When I posted my top 100 this Tuesday, that is my best approximation of what my board might look like if I ran a draft room (bearing in mind that an actual scouting director would have seen all of the candidates for his first pick, and has an entire team of scouts plus an R&D department to help build that board, not just me playing pretend).

Ryan: Has Biggio changed something this year to lower his k%? Is it real?
Keith Law: Yeah, he got to AAA where the ball is different and lots of not very good hitters are going off.

Dave: If you could un-do one prospect injury from the last 10 years and see how the player would have turned out, which would it be?
Keith Law: I will always wonder what Fernando Martinez’s career would have looked like without the leg injury/issue that more or less ended his career.

HankQQ: Braves at 9. If not hunter bishop, who do you think they would take?
Keith Law: Corbin Carroll. Could be a wild-card third name in there, I’ll hold that till Tuesday because I’m not that certain.

Michael: Could you explain the logic behind why you would want to bat your best hitter at #2? I get that it is the most optimal, but is it just because it maximizes the number of plate appearances as well as having runners on base for them to drive in?
Keith Law: That’s quite a good summary.

jay_B: Albert Almora seems to be swinging for the fences a lot more this season. Think he can be a league average bat to go with his solid CF glove, maybe a 3 win player?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s the logic I had in mind when putting him on my breakout list. His breakout has really just been a few weeks, though, so I don’t want to get too confident.

Jack: Has Owen Miller in the Padres system registered anywhere on your radar? All the kid does is hit wherever he goes. I know many of his tools seem average, but it feels like he could be a solid utility player at the next level.
Keith Law: Yes, he was on my Padres’ farm report in January.

Andrew: I know you don’t eat beef anymore Keith but what’s the best way to cook beef or pork ribs?
Keith Law: Smoke.

Noah D: What do the Brewers do with Huira when Shaw comes back from the DL?
Keith Law: I’d rather play Hiura ROS than Shaw.

Ryan: Soooo are you still worried about Austin Riley’s bat speed? Or has your opinion changed at all?
Keith Law: Soooo are you saying a week of games should change my opinion? People who rush to gotcha anyone over this tiny a sample must have just started watching baseball in the last few days. Junior Lake had a pretty good first week too, as I recall. (Austin Riley is a real prospect; Lake wasn’t. Riley was on my top 100 this winter and Lake might not have made a top 500.)

Andrew: Do you buy guys that are older ages in high school tend to bust more?
Keith Law: If they bust more, the difference in bust frequency is small, and you risk missing some pretty good players if you just dispense with all 19+ high schoolers.

Andrew: I have an anxiety disorder since my diagnosis of bipolar disorder and with my main medication, I’ve been given an anti-anxiety medication to help me not feel anxious all the time. The only problem is that they make me drowsy and I haven’t taken it in years. Should I stop tryna find ways to deal with my anxiety head on (Toastmasters/cold showers) or take the anti-anxiety medication daily?
Keith Law: That’s really a question for your doctor and/or psychiatrist. I do take anti-anxiety medication and tried several, including varying doses, until I got to a combination of efficacy and minimum side effects that I could live with.

Noah D: Can Jung from Tech rise up much more than in the 20s and teens where he is currently projected?
Keith Law: Don’t think so.

Bill: Love your stuff. Rhulman 20 recommendation was a game changer. My question is: why are there any yankee fans who dislike Cashman? He rarely gets burned in trades and he seems to repeatedly discover cast offs.
Keith Law: I’m not sure. Don’t you also have to credit their R&D strength and the player development machine that takes those castoffs and some unconventional-looking prospects and turns them into valuable big leageurs or trade pieces to him? He oversaw the construction of this organization.

Mike: How soon after the end of the draft can the remaining free agents be signed by teams without giving up draft compensation? Like, immediately after the last pick or midnight, the next business day, etc?
Keith Law: I think after the draft ends on the 5th.
Keith Law: I’m not totally sure.

Warren G: In a previous article you mentioned that Corbin Carroll’s arm doesn’t project to average, but Perfect Game has him recorded as having hit 91 from the OF. This is not intended to be a gotcha question, but I’m curious what about his throwing has led you to believe that it will not reach average. Is it lack of carry? Velocity? Accuracy? Thanks for all your draft work.
Keith Law: I didn’t say that. Sorry.

Paul: You weren’t as high on Andres Gimenez as others, but do you think he’s better than what he is currently showing?
Keith Law: He’s only 20 in AA – can’t give up on him yet. The slow start shows a tiny bit of my concern about his lack of ceiling, but it’s also less than two months and he’s so young.

Alex: Let’s take the prospect injury question and expand it to any player, any era of baseball. Who do you wish had stayed healthy? I’d have loved to have seen Eric Davis meet his potential.
Keith Law: Brien Taylor.

Michael: Hey Keith- What should the Phillies do with Nick Williams? Does he have any trade value whatsoever at this point?
Keith Law: Almost no trade value there.

Seth: If Bart were in this draft where would you have him ranked?
Keith Law: Somewhere in the 6-10 range, as opposed to around 12 where I believe i had him last year.

Nate in Seattle: Wondering your take on Corbin Burnes struggles. Knowing your success rate with breakout guys, Will he start the 2020 all star game?
Keith Law: Heh. Giolito was a breakout pick for me in 2018, so maybe?

Jay: On Busters’ podcast, you mentioned that scouts don’t like dealing with Vanderbilt. Why is that?
Keith Law: They complain they have a hard time getting access to players (which is part of the scouts’ jobs) and that seating behind the plate for scouts is very limited (true, although the park is small). I will say that they have always treated me very well, going back over a decade now. This is the first time in ages I didn’t go to Nashville to see them at home – I saw Bleday on the road, along with Austin Martin, who looks like a top ten pick for next year.

Soto: As great as Paddack has been in 2019…..Can he continue to succeed with only a fastball and a changeup?

Only throwing his curve 7-8 times a game.
Keith Law: I think so. 7 change, 7 command, 6 fastball, just a show-me breaker. Rare package, but it works.

Jake Lawson: The Rangers should be looking to move Minor at the deadline, right? What sort of return do you think Daniels should be looking for?
Keith Law: I say yes. Could get two prospects for him, right?

Michael: Do you have any thoughts on the use of cbd to treat anxiety?
Keith Law: If you believe it works, go for it. Clinical evidence is lacking.

FunInTheSun: Best sophomore or 2020 draft eligible player in college baseball?
Keith Law: Lot of candidates. Two named Martin – Austin I mentioned, Robby at Florida State (whoops, see below). Torkelson. Wilcox and Hancock at Georgia, Wilcox better for me right now. Saw Mitch Abel at the Future Stars event in Arizona over Labor Day and he’s a GUY. So is Zac Veen. JT Ginn is draft-eligible next year. I’m probably missing ten guys, too, since I don’t typically look a year ahead – those are mostly guys I’ve seen myself plus a few I’ve heard about from scouts. It looks *loaded*.

Steve: “Gotcha” people might be the worst. I feel like they are very unhappy in their lives.
Keith Law: It’s one of the worst parts of Twitter for me personally, although as a straight, white, cis male, I don’t get a fraction of the abuse some other folks get. But still, if that’s your instinct, to come be obnoxious to me because i didn’t sufficiently praise your favorite team’s prospect, save your breath.

Ricky Dempsey: My brother is very liberal and is all about letting his child make its own decisions (he gives the child clothes and toys targeted to both genders to play with). He wants to give his child the choice of whether he should be vaccinated. The child is almost 2 now. What is do you think is the best way to talk to discuss vaccination this with him without being offputting and infringing upon the child?
Keith Law: Point out to your brother that the child can only make that choice later if he’s not dead.
Keith Law: Also, it’s the fucking responsibility of a parent to make that choice.

Jessica: Robby Martin is a freshman at FSU and not draft eligible until 2021
Keith Law: Yep, you’re right, thanks. De Sedas too. Had Robby on the brain because I just edited the video I shot of him an hour ago. He can hit.

Ken (Cleveland): Very strange question but it is an issue I am thumbing through in my head. I consider myself somewhat of a blend between a conservative and liberal whatever that really means today. I believe in fiscal responsibility but I believe in investing in long term social programs that work to help those who need assistance. I am pro-choice and believe governments shouldn’t own our bodies. However, in a certain sense, they do. Prostitution is illegal. Ingestion of certain drugs is illegal. Mostly suicide and assisted suicide is illegal. Selling a kidney to pay for a surgery to save your child’s life is illegal. Literally, the government (if they brought back the draft) could force you to fight and die for your country or otherwise jail you. To me, the government clearly owns our bodies. Based on that, although again I am very pro-choice for an individual even if my own personal choice is pro-life, why should abortion be legal when these other things aren’t from an owning your body perspective.
Keith Law: The things you cite as illegal aren’t signs that the government “owns our bodies” but that we have a 250-year history of legislating morality. Why shouldn’t sex work be legal, as long as all parties are consenting? If we took the resources spent on arresting, trying, and imprisoning sex workers, and put that towards stopping sex trafficking, who would be worse off?

Gus (Portland, ME): I read at the beginning of the season about Trejyn Fletcher maybe being a 1st rounder. Now I see he’s maybe at the bottom of a top 100, if ranked at all. Did his move back to Maine cause the drop or something else?
Keith Law: He was never that kind of prospect. Not sure where that sort of hype started. Anyway, I think he ends up at school.

Tom: Does ASU have any legitimate MLB prospects on its roster besides Bishop?
Keith Law: Torkelson for next year. Marsh should go rounds 3-5 this year.
Keith Law: Time to wrap this up to write some things and also go out to dinner with my daughter – we are celebrating both of our birthdays tonight, since mine falls right before the draft (thanks, MLB) and hers was the night before my last trip and a crack-of-dawn flight. I hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable Memorial Day weekend. Please don’t drive if you drink, and if you drive, be extra careful on the roads. I’ll be back with a mock draft Tuesday and another chat on Thursday. Thank you as always for reading.

My 2009 redraft piece and note on that draft’s first-round misses are both up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: (Brief delay – I’m just finishing up a call with a scout)
Keith Law: And when I die, put a soundsystem in my hearse. It’s Klawchat.

Joe: “Josh Bell can’t play. He’s not a good defender. He’s a big lump. He has bad agility, bad footwork. He can’t run. Supposedly he’s a big power threat, but he hit 12 home runs at first base. This is not a kid! This is his third year in the big leagues! I don’t think he’s got the ability to get better.” – Anonymous Scout, SI

Has any ever been owned harder?
Keith Law: I’ve said this on twitter – if that scout was real, he should not have a job any more. His evaluations were poor, but worse, he was borderline racist.

Sean: Keith, I have two questions regarding Matt McLain: 1) How far has he fallen as a draft prospect this year? 2) Do you think the Dbacks intentionally drafted him and undercut his asking price to either get him cheaper or not sign him, giving them an extra first round pick in this draft knowing they’d have a huge bonus pool?
Keith Law: He’s not in this draft, so I don’t think it’s fair to assess his draft stock now, when he’s got 25 months until he’s back in the draft. As for 2, no, that is absolutely, 100% inaccurate. They wanted to sign him.

Zach: The Pirates have had a suspect recent history in developing raw power prospects, so I remain cautious of Josh Bell. Should I drop the skepticism? I was burned by Pedro Alvarez!
Keith Law: No, you should buy in – I wrote in March that I thought they could have one or more breakout hitters thanks to the new coach/change in approach, and I think I mentioned Polanco specifically.

PhillyJake: As someone who’s given up red meat, are you a fan of either Impossible or Beyond?
Keith Law: Yes to both.

Bobby: When scouting a prospect, do you change seats between innings to view at bats or pitches from different angles, or is there one “best” angle from which to see everything? Thanks, klaw!
Keith Law: For a pitcher, I try to watch at least two innings behind the plate and at least one up the line from his open side. For a hitter, I just want to go up the line to watch his hands.

BigDaddeh: Are there certain orgs/GMs that get attached to prospect pedigree well after the shine has worn off? It seems like when there is a former top 10 draft pick who washes out and is a minor league FA, the same two or three teams have to take one last look at him.
Keith Law: It’s a good question without a firm answer. You might also say that former top 10 picks were often top 10 picks because of fundamental physical attributes that may still be present when they wash out.

Kevin: Do you think Jarren Duran has the potential to be an everyday player on a 1st division team?
Keith Law: Potential everyday player, yes. I don’t know how to answer that more specifically yet.

Mike G: Should we expect Jordan Balazovic to recieve helium during the midseason reranks? Numbers aside, his stuff looks very impressive.
Keith Law: He barely missed my top 100 this winter, so I think I had him in the right range then. He’ll move up due to so many graduations ahead of him. He could move up more now that he’s pitching at a higher level.

adrags: If one was to scout a stat line they may look at what Nate Pearson is doing and consider him one of the top pitching prospects in the game. In reality, what have you been hearing, and what do you think he is? Can he be an ace at the next level? His per inning numbers this year are off the charts, even when factoring in the level he is pitching at.
Keith Law: Two-time top 100 guy – he already was one of the top pitching prospects in the game, certainly. On the right night you will see two pitches that are 70s. But he’s also being used judiciously, to manage his innings, and that may skew the results too – he threw just two innings his last outing, a planned short start, and so he’s not taking on the same workload (or pacing himself, or turning lineups over three times) that most starter prospects would. Doesn’t make him a worse prospect in any way, just a factor to consider when watching his line scores.

Eduardo: Looking at your 2009 recaps, how surprised are you that Tim Wheeler never got a chance with the Rockies, or anyone for that matter?
Keith Law: If I had had more time, I would have looked into that one. It doesn’t make any sense to me.

Mike: What is Griffin Canning’s perceived ceiling, floor? Is he anything other than a potential mid rotation guy?
Keith Law: Potential #2 if healthy.

Blueberry Johnson: Hey KLaw, you going to be at PAX this year? I’m designing a board game that I hope to have ready by then… Would love to meet you and maybe get your thoughts??
Keith Law: PAX Unplugged, yes. Actually going to Origins for two days, Gen Con, and PAXU.

Ameen: Keith – you mentioned that your contract is soon up for renewal and I wanted to let you know that you’re the sole reason why I pay for the ESPN subscription. Hope that you will be justly rewarded soon. SSS aside, how do you assess Nick Allen’s current standing/future outlook? Could he be one of those prospects who somewhat flies under the radar and ends up being an average major leaguer? Is his ceiling of an average major leaguer a reasonable outlook at this point?
Keith Law: I like that kid quite a bit despite his size. He can run, he can really play short, and when I saw him in March I thought he had enough hand strength to hit for average without power, even as the pitching gets better. He’ll always be dinged for his height and concerns about future strength – the difference between him at the plate and Nick Madrigal is small.

Joe: Which bat profiles better: Riley, Huira, Rodgers?
Keith Law: Hiura.

Greg: Any belief that Austin Riley can handle LF this season?
Keith Law: Don’t see why not but I’d rather see him get more reps at 3b.

Mason: I think we made a mistake by forgetting about Aramis Ademan after last year
Keith Law: He’s hitting .255 (with a lot of BB) while repeating the level, and it’s still a lot of weak groundouts. He’s only 20 so I am in no way burying him, but you’re getting way ahead of yourself.

Jon: When you do your re-draft, are you going straight best (in hindsight) player available? Eg/ would the Braves have taken Brandon Belt with Freeman already in the system?
Keith Law: I don’t consider the teams drafting at all for that.

Amed Rosario : What do you think of me? Seems like the bat is coming around but now defense has been iffy
Keith Law: Cautiously optimistic – early days, small sample, but he’s young and showing real across the board progress. No idea what’s going on with his defense.

Ralph: Do any of the Yankee fill-ins- Urshela, Tauchman, Thairo- project as a MLB regulars or at least solid bench contributors?
Keith Law: The Yankees seem to have some sort of woo with these hitting castoffs they find, but I will say I liked Estrada as a prospect before he got shot, and Urshuela was a prospect once upon a time.

Robby: Did Anthony Kay’s stuff jump or something?
Keith Law: No, stuff was great last year too, but he tired a little bit and was also just back from TJ. Fully recovered now. Very promising.

TC: New Of Monsters and Men album coming soon. Have you heard the first single & have any thoughts on it?
Keith Law: Really liked it.

Arnold: The Giants top pitching prospect, Shaun Anderson, made a good debut the other day. Is he good enough to be a top of the rotation starter or are we looking at #3 or #4 guy?
Keith Law: Back of the rotation.

Plz: Giolito. I want to believe but I’ve been hurt before. Can I embrace it yet?
Keith Law: I’m in, but then again, I’ve probably been his strongest advocate as a prospect.

AGirlHasNoName: Been thinking about the Ben Zobrist news, and how impossible it is to keep stuff private, people seem to love to consume the scandalous stuff, but does that mean someone has to provide it to them?
Keith Law: I don’t think this should be any of our business whatsoever. If a player does something criminal, that’s one thing, but the private lives of players should be off limits.

Jordan: Any chance Corbin Carroll falls to the Mets at #12?
Keith Law: Nonzero chance, but very unlikely IMO.

Andrew: Best way to cook a chicken spatchcock style with what seasonings?
Keith Law: Just salt it heavily, set it on a rack in the sheet pan, and pour water in the pan itself so you don’t set off your smoke alarm.

Dave: When do you expect Baum (UNC) to come off the board? Been the Friday guy for UNC this year, shown good velo with a good chance but kinda lackluster off speed. That’s my .02 couch analysis
Keith Law: Third round … I think? College arms may fly off the board this year because there are so few real first-round onezs.

Mike: Hey Keith, after viewing your top prospects for the upcoming MLB draft I noticed that Vanderbilt Ace Drake Fellows was not listed. Where would you rank him/ what round(s) (if any) would be the range for him?
Keith Law: Third to fifth rounds.

Dave: What makes the time travel in Doctor Who tolerable if it’s a dealbreaker for you going to see Endgame? Asking as a fan of both
Keith Law: It’s baked into the premise of Doctor Who. It was tacked on as a plot device in Endgame.
Keith Law: Doctor Who is a time traveler by definition. Same as Connie Willis’ time travel novels – they are inherent to the stories.

Mike: How high are you on the bat of Dodgers Will Smith?
Keith Law: Above average regular if not more. I think the power he showed last year is real, the result of a tangible swing change.

JG: That Balazovic pick of yours is looking good. Kis has been nearly lights out
Keith Law: No, some guy on twitter told me I’m never right about anything.

Andrew: Does Triston Casas really have 70/80 raw power?
Keith Law: Not what I saw form him in HS.

Joe: What do you make of Christian Walker? I thought he was more of a AAAA type player going into this season and so far he has done way more than I expected. The .380 BABIP and 30% strikeout rate have me questioning how sustainable it is though.
Keith Law: It’s not sustainable.

Mark: I suffer from depression and anxiety and I have a big problem with public speaking. Any ways to overcome this?
Keith Law: I’m not a therapist, and that’s something you should discuss with yours … but I can speak to my own experience, that I have found public speaking became easier with practice, and that I still experience a lot of anxiety right before starting that fades quickly once I’m in front of the crowd.

Ethan: Just a comment . . . I have learned a ton about baseball and other things from you. And while I don’t always agree with your stance(s) (I am a strong Christian), I will say that I am most impressed with you as a dad and your care for your daughter, especially as it is clear the high priority she is in your life. I have an 11 y/o daughter dealing for the first time with some mental health stuff, and I think we need more dads like you. Thanks!
Keith Law: Good luck to you and your daughter – it sounds like you’re on top of it, and getting her real medical help now could avoid a lot of problems for her in her later teen years.

Tom: Hey Keith, it seems like the Orioles actually have some pitching talent in the minors.. Rodriguez, Hall, Kremer, Knight, Lowther, Akin, even Harvey. Is that reason to be optimistic, or just wishful thinking?
Keith Law: I’ll see Hall tonight, and have a post up on him, Kremer, Sedlock, and Bishop tomorrow or this weekend. I don’t think all of those guys are starters, but they have some bulk pitching on the way.

Keith: Does Moncada being in the 99th percentile for exit velocity make you believe his production is sustainable? 3-4 WAR season?
Keith Law: I believe his ability to make hard contact is real, and that he’ll continue to strike out at a rate that makes a WAR higher than that unlikely.

Andrew: Any 80 raw power guys in this year’s draft like Nolan Gorman was last year? How about 70-75 raw power guys? Your tools assessments on draft prospects is what helped me determine Nolan Gorman should be ahead of Casey Mize who’s been a stud.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t put Gorman over Mize, FWIW. Hinds has 80 raw, and swings and misses more than Gorman. Bishop probably has 70+ raw. Bleday too.

ck: First round in 2009 looks historically bad in retrospect. Can you think of any worse?
Keith Law: 2000 is the gold standard for bad first rounds, I think.

Josh Nelson: Hey Keith. Andrew Vaughn fits what the profile of who the White Sox have drafted since Nick Hostetler took over. How likely do you think they go in a different direction by selecting CJ Abrams?
Keith Law: At this point, I don’t have enough information to answer that other than to say I believe they are looking at both players, and aware that Rutschman could slip to them.

John Farrell: Can a guy who swings and misses as much as Chavis project out positively? Also, do you think he can stay at 2B longer-term?
Keith Law: 2b would really surprise me.

Eric: From a fair labor stand point, what’s the best replacement to a draft? Is there a way to do it that protects labor and keeps things competitive to avoid too much going to one team? Or am I overstating competition issues?
Keith Law: I don’t care much if at all about competition issues – I want players to be paid what they’re worth, not what some artificial regime says they can get. League officials and owners have so successfully brainwashed fans (not you specifically) into believing that drafts are necessarily to maintain competitive balance that fans respond negatively to discussions of how players like Zion W are exploited by drafts, and forget that MLB instituted its draft to stop the “bonus baby” phenomenon of the late 1950s/early 60s.

Mom’s spaghetti: Assessments of Yordan Alverez vary…what do you think of him? Can he at least hit…and I think he really needs to HIT to be successful, right? Any prospect of him playing 1B at all or just OF?
Keith Law: Well below average in LF or 1b. Probably a DH ideally. Should hit.
Keith Law: So your second point, that he needs to hit more to be valuable relative to his position, is accurate.

Brandon: Good to see Mitchell White back and healthy this season. Can you see him getting starts in LA this year if he keeps this up?
Keith Law: Yes, or in relief.

Redefined racism?: Hey Klaw, not trying to troll, but … can you explain how Anonymous Scout up top is “borderline racist”? I keep rereading it and I don’t see it. Thanks.
Keith Law: Read the whole SI piece. I didn’t say those specific comments were racist.

Huge KLaw Fan: Hi Kieth, do you think that you rate Hiura higher than the others as some sort of white guilt? Like you said in the Bell question, that guy was definitely racist towards Bell. But do you think you may go too far the other way and subconsciously try to be not-racist and like Hiura more than you should? Thanks! I second only having insider because of you.
Keith Law: This would be a great argument if Hiura were white, which he is not.
Keith Law: Also, j/k, it’s a stupid fucking argument.

Matthew: Do minor league results ever drive prospect tools grades? Or are those always based directly on scouting observations?
Keith Law: No, results do not determine tools, ever.

ck: When do you sous vide as opposed to any other cooking method?
Keith Law: When a precise internal temperature is paramount, or when I want to cook something a long time at a low temperature without using the oven.

Butts: Feasible for the White Sox be able to grab Abrams at a savings and float a mid 1st round talent to 45?
Keith Law: Probably not. Abrams’ floor is pick 6 or so.

Amari: Is Lodolo’s stock enhanced by simply being the best arm in a pitching-weak draft class? 1st round sure, but doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who would’ve gone top 10 in years past
Keith Law: I think so. I think the industry would disagree.

j: Are you surprised that Anthony Seigler isn’t on a full-season team? Figured a player with his skills would have broken camp with the Yanks low-A club Charleston
Keith Law: He’s been hurt.

Ryan: Corbin Carroll reminds me a lot of Alek Thomas. Could you please compare and contrast them? Thank you!
Keith Law: Similar but Carroll has more pop.

Steve: In your updated top 50, you didnt have Austin Riley. Other than your question about his bat speed, why did you keep him out of the top 50?
Keith Law: I’m not sure what list you mean; the only updated top 50 I’ve posted recently was for the draft.

Lee: It’s pretty obvious that our dear leader would be looking at prison time right now if he weren’t president. Should Congress do the right/moral thing and impeach? Or should they hold off on the chance that it may lead to voter backlash and actually lead to 4 more years of this buffoon? A very difficult choice IMO
Keith Law: I don’t think any Congress should delay impeachment for political expediency. If you think an elected official has committed some crime worthy of impeachment, then you should do something about it.

mike sixel: I don’t think I’ve ever seen your thoughts…..do you like Dr. Who?
Keith Law: I’m a fan through two seasons at least.

Bill: Jose Israel Garcia was a near miss guy for you. Had a good 2nd half in warmer weather and seems to be maintaining that this season. Is he a guy worth monitoring?
Keith Law: Only 18 games so far, so tiny sample, but yes, a guy worth monitoring. Chance for high contact with good defense.

Sean: Ketel Marte is showing legitimate raw power from both sides of the plate, though he still has issues hitting enough fly balls to take it to the next level. Are you buying on him at 25 years old?
Keith Law: He was on my breakouts list for 2018. I have a bad habit of being a year early on those.

Kevin: Do you think Devers can have a 300/420/550 slashline either this year or in the near future?
Keith Law: That’s MVP level … I love the kid, believe fully in his bat, but that seems like a best case scenario and is way out of reach for 2019.

Greg: Whens the next mock?
Keith Law: I think the day after Memorial Day. Big Board next week, ACC blog post, then mock.

Jordan: Does Jackson Rutledge have serious ace potential?
Keith Law: No.

Conine: I’m going to Marlin’s Park for the first time this weekend. Anything worth checking out while I’m there?
Keith Law: Lol no.

Dr. Bob: You talk about watching players from different angles. HS shouldn’t be a problem, but do you ever run into problems at colleges or minor league parks? Or do they accommodate scouts?
Keith Law: Usually fine – high schools are actually more of a problem because sometimes you can’t get down one or both lines. That’s also an issue at Duke – I won’t scout a pitcher there because of it.

silvpak: jeren kendall is now 23 and still at A ball, with no perceptible improvement in his approach at the plate, other than walking more (which doesn’t really matter, given he’s hitting under .200). two and a half years in – was this a wasted pick?
Keith Law: It was a decent gamble that isn’t working out.

Garrett: What are you hearing on Josh Lowe? Anything moving the needle there?
Keith Law: Great athlete, power/speed combo, hitting .226 with lots of swing and miss so no, needle is steady.

addoeh: Any new Chicago eats from scouting Priester?
Keith Law: Only one: My daughter tagged along and she wanted to try deep dish, so we went to Pequod for lunch before the game, and it was … well, she loved it.

Dave: If Trout’s the best player of the last 50 years… does that mean you think Bonds’s late-career surge should be discounted? Bonds averaged 11 WAR in his late-30’s prime.
Keith Law: Bonds had 50.3 WAR through his age-27 season. Trout will clear 70.

Often Sad: How do you separate seemingly good people from their horrible opinions? This weekend, my father-in law and his sister were really lobbing it back and forth with horrible takes, such as “AOC is the next Hitler, I’m serious,” and constant babble about “Fucking Democrats” ruining the country, even though I’m not sure an actual point was made. These are the people in my life, like it or not, and are what I think good people, but sometimes it’s hard to see that.
Keith Law: Sorry to hear that, but my only solution is to cut those people out of my life.

Joe: Fair to be a bit disappointed in Gleyber Torres so far? I was expecting better plate disciple than he has shown. Outside of games against Baltimore, he hasn’t played well.
Keith Law: He’s 22 with a 118 wRC+ … I don’t understand why you’d be disappointed in that.

Bob Pollard: How’s Wander Franco looking this year? Still #1 prospect-y?
Keith Law: He is the #1 prospect in the minors right now.

Jameson: Do you tend to grade trades purely on the factors at the time, or is hindsight a fair way to grade trades?
Keith Law: We can discuss whether a trade worked out for one side, but it is not fair to criticize a trade based on factors that no one could have known at the time of the deal.

Hinkie: WVU LHP Nick Snyder isn’t getting much attention, but is having a great junior season. What do you know about him, and how can he go in the draft?
Keith Law: Not a draft prospect, sorry.

Josh: What is your guess onthe root cause of the Phillies recent draft woes? Klentak has done a fantastic job, overdelivering on this re-build. Is this more a scouting issue or driven by guidance from ownership?
Keith Law: I don’t know – and BTW, it’s really the first round. They’ve botched several first-round picks, at least the three outfielders (Randolph, Moniak at 1, Haseley). Whether that is people or process I do not know.

Michael: Did the Angels know what they had in Trout that summer?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jack: Even if the consensus is that Zack Collins can’t catch at a major league level, is there a chance the Sox call him up this year and let him try anyway?
Keith Law: There’s some risk to doing that with a catcher that isn’t present at other positions – viz. that it will adversely affect the pitchers he’s catching. So I think not.

Mike: Keith, with your travels & your love of coffee, do you ever stop for a quick cup somewhere or always coffee houses? Any favorite quick stops?
Keith Law: No, nothing I would say I like.

wickethewok: Is this the power that Josh Bell was originally projected for or just an early season fluke?
Keith Law: This is the power I projected for him. Whether it’s real or a fluke is another question … I think it’s real, that the Pirates as a whole are encouraging hitters to drive the ball more even at some cost of contact.

Huh?: Is there any logical point that could be made to call Cortez the next Hitler? Is one of her main proposals genocide?
Keith Law: This is from the same people who think the Nazis were socialist because they used the word in their party’s name (they were textbook fascists, not socialists).

J: What is your favorite guitar riff?
Keith Law: The opening riff to Crazy Train is absolutely brilliant, and fun to play; Rhoads’ classical background showed better on that riff than anywhere else. Nothing in music makes me sadder than to think of the songwriting we lost when he died.

Ron: HI Keith- Buxton is healthy this year. Just sayin’! He looks so much more relaxed this year, even only if it is a SSS. His arm is as good as his speed and if he just hits .250-270, he is a star. There is some serious pop in that bat when he squares one.
Keith Law: I thought he was a star in 2017, then he was hurt most of last year, and now he’s healthy and what do you know, he’s a star again.

Michael: Do you ever scout a player who looks the part including the swing and bat speed, but just doesn’t put up numbers? I’m thinking Josh Vitters
Keith Law: Vitters is often my go-to example for this – beautiful swing, ton of power, and in the games he could never figure out when to swing and when to take.

OC Joe: What’s the ceiling for Soroka if he stays healthy? His ERA (duh) won’t be this low all season, but the only real negative in this SSS is a higher than expected walk total
Keith Law: Health is the #1 concern, obviously. Second is whether he can continue to dominate LHB as he has, despite not really using his CH and a low arm slot. If those stay true, #2 starter for me.

Joe: Keith, why do some minor league games start so early during the week, like at 9:30 or 10?
Keith Law: Schoolkids’ special. I love those games – I can go to one and be home in time to pick my daughter up from the bus.

James: Why do prospects generally lack a quality changeup? Hard pitch to master, or less sexy to have than a slider or curve?
Keith Law: In high school, especially, they almost never need one – the axiom is that, when you throw 95, throwing a HS hitter a changeup instead of your fastball is doing him a favor.

Andy: Do teams have portable Trackman things? Like can they go a couple hours early and set things up in a high school stadium to get spin rate on a high school pitcher in game?
Keith Law: Yes. Rapsodo makes a portable device teams use for some of those measurements.

Jonas: Keith, is Urshela’s performance sustainable? And at this point, is Luke Voit for real?
Keith Law: I think Voit is for real, given the details we have now (Lindsey Adler wrote about it for the Athletic) on changes to his swing and approach. Also, Yankee woo. I’m telling you.

Clifton Law : So Keith, based on your earlier Urshela response, you think there is something extra to putting on the pinstripes
Keith Law: I actually think they have some developmental ideas that haven’t generally spread out to other teams, yet, and that they’ve taken very good advantage of this temporary edge.

Harold: I, for one, can’t wait until the next election when a Democrat can be elected and the death in the streets, innocent people being locked up for not being white supremacists, and puppy kicking will finally end.
Keith Law: It’s really stupid to send me this shit from your work computer, buddy.

La Pantera: Do you think the Rodon, Jones, Dunning and Kopech injuries should make the White Sox reconsider their organizational pitching approach, more than an annual self-scouting review would do? Could this just be normal for clubs and freak occurrence that it’s happening to higher profile players for the Sox?
Keith Law: Nah. Rodon had a tough delivery and was badly overused in college, but also had one of the best sliders in amateur history. Kopech wasn’t even in their system all that long and almost nobody who throws that hard (other than Verlander?) can maintain it for long without elbow trouble. Bad set of coincidences.

Joe: Zac Gallen a potential Ace?
Keith Law: No.

Erik: you stated in your re-draft post that Trout would have went to the Yankees at pick 25 but wouldn’t it have been likely that the Angels would have snagged him at 24 instead of 25
Keith Law: If you’re assuming the Yankees kept that pick at 25, you should also assume the Mets kept pick 24.

Dan: It’s 2019 and some Boston sports media and plenty of fans were actually complaining that Cora took out Chris Sale when he did (108 pitches) because he could have gone for 20 strikeouts. Ntm, his injury issues the last two years.
Keith Law: I’m shocked (not shocked).

Bob: How would you rate Daniel Lynch’s secondary pitches?
Keith Law: Will write up on Friday. I am all in, though.

Tyler: Who has a higher ceiling: Fried or Soroka?
Keith Law: Fried.

addoeh: At least your daughter liked Pequods. I’ve probably recommended it a time or two here.
Keith Law: It’s not that it was bad – I just don’t like that style of pizza.

PD: Pretty big assumption that person actually has a job.
Keith Law: Oh I know exactly where he works now. And he’s been insulting me for a few weeks here.

Mike: At this point, do you think Drew Rasmussen can still start? The stuff is great, but the injury history still making me think he’s better off in the bullpen.
Keith Law: Two time TJ guy … I wouldn’t even chance it.

Mom’s spaghetti: What do the Astros do with Fisher, Tucker, Alvarez, and to a lesser extent Reed (seem to have ruined him)? Fisher almost has to be in a trade this summer but does he have enough value? Also, would you sell high on Alvarez? His stock can’t get higher!
Keith Law: Tucker and Alvarez would have some real trade value now; the others don’t seem to have much at all. I know they shopped Fisher in bigger deals this winter but he wasn’t enough to lead a package.

wickethewok: If the the 2009 Nationals were given Storen’s stats from 2010-2015, would they still make the pick? I know by most reasonable measures, including yours, he is a bust, but was this what the Nationals expected?
Keith Law: I didn’t call him a bust – that was an editor’s decision – and it’s not possible to separate the pick from the fact that it was unprotected and they had to have a predraft deal in place. (Of course, Trout would have signed for slot there, no question.)

Ozzie Albies: Have I ever seen a pitch I don’t like?
Keith Law: Pitch, or contract offer?

addoeh: What are the odds Keuchel, and perhaps Kimbrel, get close to their original asking price once the draft pick compensation goes away after the draft?
Keith Law: Keuchel more likely. Kimbrel I think gets one-year offers.

JR: Should the Mets aggressively be trying to give Conforto one of those extensions that are all the rage these days? I would.
Keith Law: I would too. Not sure he’d take one, but worth trying.

Dave: Sorry I should have been more specific: I was assuming Trout wouldn’t suddenly improve markedly in his late 30’s for, y’know, whatever reason. If he does, no argument, but I was wondering if you were assuming a similar path, or discounting Bonds, or really thought Trout was so much better young that he could reach 162 with a normal aging pattern. I’ll take your answer as meaning the latter.
Keith Law: I don’t think we can ever predict anyone to have Bonds’ aging pattern, but if there were a player alive today whom you might predict to have it, isn’t it Trout? Plus he might enter his 30s with a substantial WAR ‘lead.’

Sean: Gonsolin ceiling?
Keith Law: He and Balazovic were both on this list of : prospects who just missed my top 100.

AJ: Balazovic! Great call on your part. Do you see him as an above average starter and is it crazy to think we could see him before the end of 2020?
Keith Law: Above average starter but not in the majors before 2021.

Dr. Bob: One unknown factor in the redraft discussion is how a team may have mishandled a player’s development. It is possible that some ‘busts’ might have been solid major league regulars given a different course of development, maybe with a different team, right?
Keith Law: Absolutely. I wonder if Ackley’s career is different if he doesn’t go right to AA.

Zander: Hey Keith – any recent non-fiction recommendations?
Keith Law: Bad Blood, on the Theranos scandal.

Bobby: Best way to cope with death? Burying a family member tomorrow and it’s been rough.
Keith Law: See a counselor if you can. I don’t know any good way to cope, but I know lots of bad ways and it’s important to try not to fall into those traps. I’m very sorry for your loss.

Thornton Mellon: You ever read the Three Body Problem?
Keith Law: Yep, three years ago: my review.

Drew: I’m having trouble cutting activities out of my life that I’m pretty sure I don’t actually like or enjoy, but just kind of doing them out of obligation or fear of change; any opinions on how to stop?
Keith Law: Got me wondering what you might mean, but in the absence of that information, what about simply prioritizing other activities you do like or enjoy, so that the choice goes from “not doing X” to “doing something instead of X?”

Thornton Mellon: Is the new Tommy La Stella legit? You really see a 4-5 WAR player here?
Keith Law: It seems incredibly hard to believe, given the absence of any such power in his track record, but there’s also nothing obviously fluky in his numbers (other than the sample size).

alex: You mentioned the possiblity of the O’s not drafting Adley R. to save money on tougher signs. Doesn’t AZ have a lot of pool money and picks before the Os 2nd pick to scoop up these folks? Any candidates who are worthy tough signs?
Keith Law: Lots of HS guys who’d be worth it but the O’s can’t set their hearts on any one guy, because of Arizona specifically.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – more phone work to do before the top 100, plus another ESPN project for draft week that needs my attention. Thank you all, as always, for all of your questions. I don’t know my exact schedule next week, other than that I’m planning to hit the ACC tournament briefly – I don’t think I’ll be revisiting the SEC tournament, held in Alabama, any time soon after the law they just passed – and may not be home for a Thursday chat. I’ll keep everyone posted on social media, though. Thanks again.

My first mock draft for 2019 went up on Monday, and I have a blog post up on JJ Bleday and other Vandy/Louisville prospects.

Keith Law: Go and run yourself a million miles. Klawchat.

Trevor: Casey Mize is the best college pitching prospect since __________?
Keith Law: Gerrit Cole.

Bob: Forest Whitley has been mediocre in his short starts and terrible in his relief appearances, so bad he’s not even building up IP. Whatever the Astros plan, it doesn’t seem to be working on any level. What would you suggest?
Keith Law: I don’t draw that conclusion. It’s five appearances, characterized mostly by more home runs – and they’re using the MLB ball in AAA. Unless he’s hurt I’m unconcerned. Steady on.

Mark: In what order would you place these, Shake Shack,5 guys,In N Out ?
Keith Law: I no longer eat beef, so this is based on my memories from beyond two years ago – Shake Shack > In n Out > Five Guys.

Trevor: At what point can an umpire call a balk/ball on a pitcher for stopping mid windup with no one on base? Ryu did it multiple times (4-5) in his last start where it got to the point of annoying. Would the ump call it if Inciarte squared around it bunt and then Ryu stopped?
Keith Law: It’s not a balk if there’s no one on, right?

addoeh: I saw recently that you said weren’t a fan of Moby Dick. I have to say, though, I think that it is some of John Bonham’s best work.
Keith Law: Agreed. Melville got better treatment than he deserved.

Aaron C.: SSS *and* zero gravity home field *and* “scouting the stat line” notwithstanding; I am ALL IN on Jorge Mateo. Am I a crackpot?
Keith Law: Not a crackpot, but 1) the power definitely isn’t real and 2) he’s repeating triple-A, just now in a better ballpark. But he also has long had real ability, especially his speed, that we can’t ignore.

Kyle: People seem to be making a big deal about you taking Yordan out of your top 100 based on the season he is having. Even without much defensive value, the bat seems quite impactful. Do you want a redo yet?
Keith Law: No, I don’t, and that’s really the wrong way to ask that question.

Elton: Is Alejandro Kirk a name to monitor? Bat seems special and particularly intriguing at catcher.
Keith Law: Yes, he was in my Toronto org writeup as a real prospect, and who doesn’t love a fat catcher? I’m all in on the fat catchers.

Nick: Daniel Norris is finally getting regular starts. What are your thoughts on how he’s looked so far? Do you think he can stay in the rotation long-term throwing this many curveballs?
Keith Law: Fangraphs only has him throwing the curveball 6% of the time, the lowest rate of his four pitches, so I’m not sure if you’re just conflating that and the slider or if you mean something else. I do think he has to be offspeed-heavy, maybe more so than he has been, because his secondary stuff is good but his fastball is below-average now. I also think he has the offspeed weapons and the aptitude to be an average or better starter even averaging just 90 mph.

Bookz: Keith, big fan of your fiction recommendations and I wanted to pass one back. Based on your “Swamplandia” recommendation, I looked for similar authors and hit on Amy Bloom’s “Lucky Us.” Strong authorial voice, with a bit less of Russell’s sense of impending dread. Great read!
Keith Law: Thanks! I’ll add it to the endless list.

Manny: If you were KC, would you take Witt Jr, Vaughn, Bleday, or Abrams at 1.2?
Keith Law: When I rank players, that’s my ‘board.’ So my #1, Rutschman, is gone in your scenario, and then I’d take my #2, Vaughn.

Nomah: I know he’s still really young…but is this kind of what Mazara is? Everyone says they see more potential in him. What might it take to bring it out? Different hitting coach/approach? Change of scenery (even though the ball jumps out of his current park)?
Keith Law: He’s still putting the ball on the ground too often, and not getting deep enough into counts. I don’t know what will bring that out but I am positive the Rangers have tried to get him to make adjustments along those lines.

Ben: When young hitters come up, struggle, and then need to “make adjustments,” what does that even mean? It seems like the easy answer for fans to grasp is that they need to be more selective and not swing at sliders down and away. There has to be more going on, but as a fan we rarely hear what those “adjustments” actually are. Are there common things young players need to do, or is it too individualized?
Keith Law: Hah, there’s the phrase in question. It can be as simple as recognizing that pitchers will attack the hitter in a certain way because he’s shown some vulnerability, and then changing his approach so he’s not chasing whatever pitch(es) he’s getting. It can be more significant, like mechanical changes, from adding a trigger to changing the stride or setup to adjusting hand positions. It’s a catch-all term.

Dana: Domingo German seems to have figured out how to throw strikes. Still a reliever for you?
Keith Law: His command/control was never the reason I thought he’d end up in relief.

bryan: Hi Keith – I know that you had projected a college bat to the A’s in your first mock draft. Do you think that they could still look to target high ceiling players like Hampton, Toglia and Paris in the first couple of rounds? Thanks and keep up the great work.
Keith Law: Toglia’s not a high-ceiling guy but I do not believe they’re definitely taking a college bat. They could certainly go after some ceiling; I did not hear them on Hampton at all, FWIW.

Griz: Greatly enjoy your work. Any thoughts on the board game, “Planet”? Just heard of it and wondered if you’ve played it
Keith Law: On my list for the summer. Blue Orange did offer me a review copy in advance of Earth Day but I couldn’t get to it in time for that with other games I’d already lined up to review. Hoping I’ll get to Planet before GenCon.

Tyson: What do you think about Joe Ross? Starter? If so, could he be a trade piece for a solid BP arm to a team that isn’t “win now” and could let him develop as a starter?
Keith Law: Starter if he can stay healthy. That’s been an issue since he signed, though.

Patrick: Keith, are there certain college stadiums you enjoy visiting more than others? Ones that have a great view/ambience/sightlines, etc?
Keith Law: It’s more about the cities than the ballparks. I love going to Nashville, Louisville, Oklahoma City, so any scouting trip that gets me to places like those works for me.

Patrick: Hey Keith, one thought from last week leads to this week’s question. On your dislike for superhero movie violence, does that also extend to horror films? I struggle with both of those tropes, and wonder if you view them through the same lens?
Keith Law: Even more so. I watch almost no horror films, and if there’s gore I’m just out. The idea of finding pleasure in watching even fictional depictions of graphic violence is abhorrent to me. I’ve said this before, but if you just arrested everyone who goes to see torture-porn films like Hostel on opening nights, you’d probably grab half the future serial killers in the country.
Keith Law: (I don’t think the films make people into killers, btw.)

Luke: Does Theo keeping in contact with Russell’s ex-wife do anything for you? If the victim appears to be accepting of Addison returning (meaning, hopefully he’s been sincere and taken steps to better himself), does that make this awful situation any less heavy?
Keith Law: Nothing will matter until Russell takes some actual responsibility here instead of talking about this as a “challenge” for him to overcome.

SGz: What do you see as the biggest benefit of seeing a player live versus tape?
Keith Law: Additional angles, and seeing the ‘small’ things that a player does – setting up before plays, watching him warm up, etc.

Clark: Is people flipping out over the OK sign proof that we do indeed live in clownworld?
Keith Law: Calling it “the OK sign” when it has gone from dumb internet joke to actual symbol used by white nationalists might make you the clown, Clark.

Matty K : Re: Moncada. Last year his strikeouts were in large part due to taking called third strikes on “border line pitches” (I.e. pitches within 1 inch or less of the zone). He led baseball with 60, trout was next with 41. (1) curious if this issue is more “fixable” than pure swing and miss issues (2) also when does the detriment in the drop in walk rate overshadow the benefits of less strikeouts from a more aggressive approach? Thanks as always for the thoughtful insight.
Keith Law: I don’t have a good answer for (2). For (1), it probably depends on the player. Swing choices and pitch recognition are different skills that have different underlying features – visual recognition/decision-making versus hand-eye coordination. I imagine that will differ by player.

Danny: Any reports on Spencer Howard before he got put on the shelf?
Keith Law: Stuff has been very good, again, was told the arm issue was minor.

Julie: Do you see any reason why the Orioles wouldn’t take Rutschman? Seems like a no-brainer, and Mike Elias seems like a reasonable guy. Are there any doubts that he’s the #1 pick?
Keith Law: He’s not the clear 1-1 guy in my mind. He’s the best prospect, but the gap between him and Vaughn is small, and the question for Elias is whether he’d rather have Rutschman + good HS prospect (at pick 42) or Vaughn + better HS prospect because he can cut a better deal with Vaughn at 1.

Brett: Do you believe the top 3 players in the upcoming draft, in whatever order, are Rutschman , Witt, Vaughan? Could Vandy OF Bleday move into the top 3?
Keith Law: I ranked them all here: https://klaw.me/2vrX6tV

Jeff: Sorry buddy, people have a right to refuse vaccines for any reason they choose- personal, private, or religious.
Keith Law: That may be true, pal, but you don’t have a right to refuse vaccines FOR YOUR CHILD, any more than you have a right to deny your child medicine, food, shelter, or other care. Do you want the right to beat your child too?
Keith Law: Also, it’s not even clear you have the right you think you do, except in your own head. Courts have ruled the government can force vaccinations during outbreaks and epidemics.

Fitz: Do you think Vlad Jr. early struggles (ie not seeing anything to hit) could be solved by moving him up from the 5th spot?
Keith Law: I don’t think where a player hits, other than batting in front of the pitcher, has any effect on his performance.

Greg: Any new top 10 buzz since your mock?
Keith Law: Not in the last 72 hours.

Rick: Office door closed with sign that reads “In Webinar – Do Not Disturb”. Actually just my weekly escape aka Klawchat. No question – just a simple thanks!
Keith Law: I’ll write a note to your boss.

Aaron C.: Earlier this year, you wrote that the A’s might have something with Nick Allen if he could get on base more. I *know* it’s silly to get excited about three weeks at Stockton (.356 OBP!), so should I follow up with you in, what, 2020? 2021?
Keith Law: It’s promising but I think double-A is the best test.

Sam: Do you allow your daughter to curse? My younger son has finally learned curse words, and I’m torn on how to react.
Keith Law: I never did much to hide those words from her in songs, but pointed out that some people don’t like those words and she shouldn’t use them (this was years ago). So far, she hasn’t started, but that could change at any time.

Guest: So what are your great American novels? It is tough because we are not talking about best I think but something different
Keith Law: I think Beloved is the best choice – I don’t see how you tell the American story without acknowledging such a massive piece of our history and cultural heritage. I understand why The Great Gatsby is often chosen, but I think it’s too narrow a slice of our past. Absalom, Absalom! does a better job of covering more ground – it’s the history of the American south, told through the rise and fall of one family – although it’s such an arduous read that I think it leaves a lot of people behind. Empire Falls is a dark horse choice for me, and maybe a little too narrow, but the way Russo interweaves the setting of a declining mill town into the lives of his characters makes it a very distinctive American story.

Andrew: What’s the best way to exercise for someone with mental health issues (depression, anxiety)?
Keith Law: There’s no best way. Every doctor or therapist I’ve ever talked to about this has simply said exercise is good. So whatever you can get yourself to do regularly is fine.

Mark: Love the brief guitar shows you do sometimes. I played a bit in high school ages ago and now I’m looking to get back into it. My question is if you’re self-taught, and if so what are some resources online that you’ve used to help yourself learn?
Keith Law: I taught myself in high school with magazines like the old Guitar for the Practicing Musician, then would find tabs on alt.guitar.tab and the like. I use Ultimate-Guitar a lot now (I pay for the pro tabs) but still do a lot by ear.

Eric: What is Sixto Sanchez’ ceiling? When should he be expected to be up; Sept? 2020?
Keith Law: Has to stay healthy for a full season before we think about him coming to the majors. I think it’s #2-3 ceiling in reality despite the huge velocity.

Cade: Austin Riley has been on an insanely hot streak for the past week or two. Have you come around on him as a prospect? What do you think his ultimate upside is?
Keith Law: A hot week or two doesn’t change my opinion of a prospect. He was in the right place on my top 100, with the same strengths (power, defense) and weaknesses (bat speed) today he had two months ago.

John: Does James Karinchak have a chance to be an impact reliever in MLB?
Keith Law: A chance, yes, not a large one. History of wildness and I believe shoulder issues.

Andrew: What’s the difference between Nolan Gorman leading up to the draft last year and Rece Hinds leading up to the draft this year?
Keith Law: Gorman’s power was bigger, and he had hit better the previous summer and fall than Hinds did.

Eric: You subpoenaed me to be here, but I’m just not gonna show up, cause, laws are fake, apparently.
Keith Law: Yep. And an entire party has decided it doesn’t care about laws as long as they can retain power.

Michael: With SSS, it’s amazing how batting averages and ERA’s can change so quickly. Fiers ERA went down by 1.4 in his no hitter. At what point in the season do stats not fluctuate so much off of one start or one week?
Keith Law: It’s gradual, but that is one reason I’ve always said Memorial Day is a good time to start looking at current-season stats in the majors – by then, we can still be in SSS territory, but the daily fluctuations are smaller.

Chris: Cal Quantrill was throwing hard Tuesday but control seemed iffy. Do you see him as a rotation piece long-term?
Keith Law: More interesting as a rotation piece now that he’s 92-96 again. Didn’t think he could start when he was 90-92 like he was last year. Still some concerns – it’s not a high quality FB, breaking ball isn’t great – but now he has a chance.

Joe: Sorry if I missed it, but did you do a write up on Deivi Garcia?
Keith Law: No, that’s in my back pocket till I see some more minor league games. I don’t usually wait this long but I try to avoid blog posts that are too short because of the subscription format.

Eric: Do you understand what Jeter et. al are doing with the Marlins, or are they just destined to last place for the rest of time?
Keith Law: I do understand it, I just don’t entirely agree with it.

Tim: Why was Kyle Hendricks overlooked as a prospect? Purely the radar gun?
Keith Law: That’s a major reason, but it’s not like he had some knockout breaking ball too. He’s an extreme outlier. That’s very fun, but if you figure out a way to identify the next Hendricks among all the minor leaguers throwing in the upper 80s with good control and no plus curveball or slider, please let me know, because I’m not that good.

Chris: I’m sure you’ve answered this before, but do you have a Top 5 for baseball movies? I just saw Major League for the first time and it was…fine? Not even sure it’d be in my Top 5, even though I know so many people love it. Just wondering what yours is!
Keith Law: And it’s aged very poorly. Jake flat-out stalks Lynn, and it’s supposed to be romantic. Sugar is my go-to rec, since so few people have seen it. Pelotero if you’d consider a documentary. I think Eight Men Out is solid. I enjoy Field of Dreams but it’s not much of a baseball movie, and neither is Bull Durham. Most baseball movies get the baseball very wrong, and/or rely on baseball to paper over bad plots.

randplaty: Is Paddack really a #1 or #2 starter? Or is he pitching over his head?
Keith Law: At least a #2.

Matt W: Any recommendations for a good vacation read? Something with a fairly engrossing plot rather than something meandering.
Keith Law: Eh, depends on your tastes, but one of my absolute favorite recent novels is Anthony Doerr’s All The Light We Cannot See.

Texas Bill: Is there definitive proof that MLB is using a “juiced” ball?
Keith Law: There is proof that changes to the physical characteristics to the baseball have contributed to the rise in home runs, yes. Dr. Meredith Wills has also argued it has contributed to the rise in blisters among pitchers.

Steve : What would you do if you are the Mets with Dom Smith? Have him get everyday ABs in AAA and work out a trade? What do you think they can get for him?
Keith Law: I would think you could get a similar player – a young, ready, potential at another position or a back-end starter. I don’t think sending him to triple-A helps his trade value, though.

Erin: Besides McKenzie Gore, which Padres minor leaguer are you most excited about?
Keith Law: Do I have to choose just one? OK, Luis Patino. Or maybe Tirso Ornelas. Xavier Edwards is really intriguing though.

MikeM: Deivi Garcia went 5 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K last night. The strikeouts are there but he seems to have some control issues. I know you saw him in his first AA start this year. Do you think he has the athleticism to gain control or will he always be wild? What is a realistic outcome for him? There is ace upside there with the pure stuff but you can say that about a lot of guys.
Keith Law: Definitely not ace upside there – I like Deivi but that is not ace stuff or size. I also don’t think he’ll always be wild; he wasn’t wild last year, certainly.

Jeff: What type talents are Quin Cotton & Braden Shewmake? Rounds 3-5?
Keith Law: Shewmake more comp/second. Cotton you are spot on.

Minong: I really enjoyed Neil Gaiman’s American Gods, do you read his stuff?
Keith Law: I just finished Good Omens yesterday. American Gods is the best of his novels I’ve read.

Noel: Miguel Amaya has had an interesting year, with a 17% walk rate but a .226 BABIP. Has his early season results changed his future outlook at all?
Keith Law: SSS.

Andy: Rutschman is a switch hitting college catcher, who can field, with power. I’ve never seen him, but this screams Wieters, even without the Orioles conncetion.
Keith Law: He’s a much better receiver today than Wieters was, and we have better data to back that up.

Jeff: Will Brett Baty go out as a 3B? Do you think he stays there long term?
Keith Law: Yes. Probably not?

Fishing with E: I think there were 2 first rounders that didn’t sign last year. Do you expect that again this year?
Keith Law: That was a huge surprise to me, although those two players had several things in common that may have contributed to them not signing. I do not expect a repeat of that.
Keith Law: As in, I don’t think those factors are going to become more common, and teams may shy away from certain HS players to avoid that situation.

Andrew: Shouldn’t players in the final year of their contract (ie Z. Wheeler) be begging to be traded? That way they can’t be offered a QO. Which shows how ridiculous the QO system is. Are you in favor of any type of FA c compensation?
Keith Law: I’d eliminate FA compensation entirely. Of course, I’d eliminate or totally overhaul the draft, too.

Jay: Have you read Early Riser yet? Have you enjoyed Fforde’s non Thursday Next novels?
Keith Law: Own it, haven’t read it, enjoyed Shades of Grey in particular.

Chris Paddack: How would you handle my innings this year?
Keith Law: At some point you’re going to have to shut Paddack down, but I wouldn’t put a number on it now; see how the team’s season progresses and if Paddack shows any signs of fatigue at any point you move aggressively to rest him or end his season.

Jim Leyland Palmer: KLaw, if you were running the Tigers during this draft would you prioritize a guy like Belday (safer, closer to contributing) or Greene (More upside, but more risk and further away)? Our current crop of pitching should be due 2020/2021, would it be wise to line this pick up with that window or is that foolish?
Keith Law: Take the guy you like best.

Dave: You seem far less bullish on Rutschman than other people in the industry. What do you see as his limitations?
Keith Law: Don’t know about other people in the industry, but I know plenty of scouts who agree with me that his hit tool isn’t anywhere near what Vaughn’s is.

Matty K : It looks like Lucas Giolito is really starting to throw the ball better. Much improved k/swing and miss rate. I know you have stayed aboard when everyone else has jumped ship. Is this a result of the mechanical reversions you oft-referenced? (I.e, have you seen enough of a change to justify my excitement as a Sox fan?)
Keith Law: I’m in. Changeup is plus now. Velocity is back to where it was. Also he’s fully healthy this year.
Keith Law: Sorry, plumber is here fixing my dryer vent. Previous owners did everything so cheaply that any little problem becomes a large one (in this case, they cut the hole for the exhaust vent in the wrong place, so it was more than half obstructed by part of the wall dropping down into the pipe).

Pat D: I was watching the news yesterday and hearing a 12-year old say about how he was prepared to grab a metal baseball bat and not go down without a fight while some people were shooting up his school. And all I could think to myself was, “How fucking sad is it that a 12-year old kid even has to CONSIDER that?” Am I wrong?
Keith Law: You are not wrong, not at all.

John: Any chance at this point that Abrams makes it to the Reds at 7?
Keith Law: Extremely low, but I could never say zero. What hurts is that I’m not hearing any teams above there exploring under-slot deals – highest team I’ve heard doing that is Texas at 8.

bill wilhelm fan: projection for Logan Davidson to get selected?
Keith Law: Back half of the first round.

Eric: Saying the OK sign isn’t now the white nationalist movement’s symbol is like saying the swastika is just a Hindu symbol.
Keith Law: Good analogy.

Jeff: How much does a pre draft workout with a team mean in the weeks leading up to the draft? Does that mean serious interest? Is there a cutoff of say players we like in top 5 rounds or is it players an area scouts like etc. Thanks!
Keith Law: I wouldn’t read too much into that, but it does help teams narrow decisions.

Andy: Re Cubs contacting writers: How often are you confronted by a parent or club about your opinions?
Keith Law: Parents very rarely. Clubs sure, from time to time, but nobody has threatened me (in any sense of the word) in years.

Dave.: Is Yodan Alvarez similar to AJ Reed?
Keith Law: I think he’s better than Reed, but you have hit on a couple of my concerns – things that held Reed back that may also hold back YA.

Daniel: Would you say its counterproductive to trade relevant prospects for JD Davis and then not play him because you are overpaying the terrible Todd Frazier?
Keith Law: I really didn’t understand their trades this offseason. They created a lot of redundancy they didn’t need. That said, their issue now is playing the right guys – the trades are made, you can’t undo them – so the argument to play Davis isn’t that you gave up value for him but, as you said, that he can’t be worse than Frazier.

Chris J: Keith, clearly every player is an individual and no 2 are perfectly alike. With that said, some Os fans are leery of taking Rutschman first overall due to Weiters never really having hit the ceiling he displayed as a prospect. Is there something in the scouting, skillset, or other component of the process to indicate he could be more Posey and less Weiters? Thank you.
Keith Law: I’ll add to what I said above – not only is Rutschman a better defender, but I think we know he’s a better defender, and the industry also knows him as a person better because (I think) his grandfather played and then helped teach him to be a great defensive catcher from when he was pretty young.

Rick: C Randolph, M Moniak, A Haseley. We’ve gone from “pour bleach in my eyes” to “what were they thinking” to “we’ll he’s not terrible”. At what point do the Phils revamp their Amateur Scouting Dept??
Keith Law: Their double-A outfield is three first-rounders, all top ten picks, all off to brutal starts this year. I don’t like talking about revamping departments – that’s talking about scouts’ jobs – but I do think a different philosophy in the first round is required.

DH: Can Cavan Biggio be an every day 2B in Toronto this year?
Keith Law: No.

Jordan: Outside of a lack of power, what does Corbin Carroll need to improve on the most?
Keith Law: I’m not sure he really has a lack of power – he’s not Nick Madrigal. He’s pretty strong. He’s just 5’10”. So I guess he needs to get taller?

Sunny: How do you stay positive with the constant barrage of “world ending” news (animal extinction, climate change)?
Keith Law: I have always been fortunate in my ability to compartmentalize enough so that I’m aware of that shit but still able to get out of bed in the morning and look forward to good things each day. We could all live in existential dread, all the time, but it’s not exactly the quality of life to which I aspire.

Erin: Any thoughts on Brady McConnell? His numbers look good this year but haven’t heard much about him since he was a projected first rounder a couple years ago
Keith Law: He’s hit enough the last two months or so to put himself into the top two rounds for sure, maybe even late first. I have some questions about the hit tool and ability to stay at short, but he’s a really good athlete and maybe in the second round you roll the dice on that?

Ker Pal: Nate Pearson – a guy, a GUY, or a GUY!!!
Keith Law: Between the latter two. He’s been on my top 100 the last two years because there’s potential for a Syndergaard-like arsenal.

Jonathan: Has Alex Faedo turned a corner? Can’t find current scouting reports on him, but he’s pitching well through six starts in AA.
Keith Law: SSS. Stuff is the same.

Tim: Kris Bubic! SSS and a college guy in the Sally Lg. But has been impressive. Arrow up, or inconclusive till he gets to a more appropriate challenge?
Keith Law: Doesn’t belong there. Nothing negative, just can’t read anything into a Pac 12 guy going to low-A.

Kris: Missed the last chat to say that I’m absolutely pissed that I didn’t get to meet you in Morgantown, considering I currently live there. I’ll tell you now what I would’ve told you then. Thanks for everything. Although politically I’m more conservative, with your chats I’ve became more open minded to new ideas and ways to view policy. I genuinely thank you for that. I also greatly appreciate your baseball coverage. I hope you enjoyed Morgantown and everyone was hospitable.
Keith Law: That’s all very kind of you. Don’t feel too bad, though – I was in Morgantown for all of about four hours, just there for the game and then back to Pittsburgh.

DH: Kelenic or Gorman? It seems like Gorman has a higher ceiling if he can get to that power but Kelenic’s ceiling isn’t far behind and his floor seems so much higher?
Keith Law: Kelenic. Better hit, defense, run tools. May stay in CF.

Tom C: With Addison Russell and Tyreek Hill being the latest DV players in the news, it’s brought the usual assortment of fanboys/fantasy players with their usual “so, are they NOT supposed to be able to work now” takes. Which I always find amazing because if they were Addison the truck driver or Tyreek the CPA, literally none of them would give a crap whether those guys worked again. But hey, don’t ruin my entertainment bro.
Keith Law: Every damn time. Why are they so concerned with that player’s “right” to work? Oh, right, because laundry.

Dallas: White Sox have drafted Walker (18 2nd), Burger (17 1st), Sheets (17 2nd), Gonzalez (17 3rd), and Collins (16 1st) who all seem like potential 1B/DH (though I’m not entirely sure). Is Vaughn such a good bat that they would continue down this same path? Rutschman seems like an obvious selection for them if available but I question Vaughn.
Keith Law: I’ve also heard them with Abrams, because Kenny Williams likes him. (That’s the story, at least.) I’d much rather take Vaughn given his history. Also, although you’re correct on their last bunch of picks, I don’t think Collins and Sheets matter, and Gonzalez is definitely an outfielder.

Joe: Fearless prediction: if/when the banned Cubs fan’s name becomes public, it’ll take less than 20 seconds of viewing his Facebook/Twitter profiles to understand exactly why the Cubs are so sure it was a racist gesture.
Keith Law: Now there’s a story on Twitter (just since I started this chat) that he wasn’t racist, so who the hell knows. Here’s another suggestion, though: maybe don’t be a dumbass on live TV? Like, just wave and smile?

JP: Not a fan of horror or gratuitous violence, but do you avoid historical violence in TV/movies, such as war or slavery?
Keith Law: War, no. Slavery, sometimes. I never saw 12 Years a Slave for that reason.

Jonathan: What’s good on TV/Netflix these days? Looking for a show to watch this summer when I finally grab some free time.
Keith Law: Russian Doll is the last new show I binged.

BK : Does Jordyn Adams become a top 15 by seasons end you think?
Keith Law: Definitely not.

dmitry: BTW, agree with your answer to the exercise question. As a sports physical therapist who deals with anxious NYers, my best answer to which kind is “whatever has the best chance of getting you there”!
Keith Law: Good! Love to hear from experts. I talk mental health stuff because people ask, but ultimately I’m not an expert, just someone who is going through it myself and asks a lot of questions.

Fred: The Yordan take is not a good look for you.
Keith Law: Well, I ain’t good looking, but I’m someone’s child.

wrburgess: When players like Liberatore and Jhon Torres are held back in Spring, does that concern you or is it just a routine process?
Keith Law: No concerns unless we have definite word of something amiss.

Jonathan: Dream retirement spot?
Keith Law: Italy.

Geordy: I’m intrigued by the tools of Maurice Hampton, have you heard any word on his signability with his LSU dual-sport commitment?
Keith Law: I’ve heard he wants to play baseball. After the Murray fiasco, that’s the biggest question of all.

Kirk: I’ve seen you mention overhauling the draft a few places recently now. So…bulletpoints, 10,000 foot view, how would you do that?
Keith Law: I’m going to have to make that a column at some point soon because it’s too long to write anywhere else.

DH: I don’t think Mateo would move Semien off short so is there a path for Mateo? 2B over Profar? OF?
Keith Law: Centerfield.

Dr. Bob: RE: the OK/White Power sign. I had never heard of this when the Wrigley story came out. So I googled it, read a couple of article, and then I knew. Research. With the internet, it’s really easy to do now. Clark should try it sometime.
Keith Law: I don’t know why people are arguing so hard *against* the idea that there could be new ways to express hate.
Keith Law: Like, have we learned nothing the last three years

Mac: I’m sorry but I can’t wrap my head around a power switch hitting plus defensive catcher and an undersized R/R first base only being evaluated that closely. I just can’t see it
Keith Law: What if the first baseman projects to regularly post .400+ OBPs but the catcher might be in the low .300s? There are obviously thresholds where the two are close or even flipped.

Robert: Do you think part of the consternation that built up with Giolito is due to the fact he has been a prospect for so long? Hard to believe he is just 24!
Keith Law: Drafted at 17, very famous even before then, included in a high-profile trade … lot of factors going into people wanting to give up on a player.

Reader from 2015: Have you read “The Three Body Problem” trilogy yet? If you dig existentialism, it re-defines the idea.
Keith Law: Read the first book, enjoyed it but didn’t feel driven to go to book two.

James: Non-zero chance we see Brendan McKay in the majors this season?
Keith Law: Non-zero but below 5%.

Pat: Houston took Correa way below slot in 2012, then took McCullers at like 41. Would Vaughn be the only option for the O’s if they went the underslot route? Could anyone else like Abrams get in the discussion?
Keith Law: Sure. Abrams, Greene. If Carroll were 6’2″ he’d be a candidate.

Iris: I am conflicted….if it is a white nationalist symbol, why does President Obama still flash the okay sign so often?
Keith Law: I know this is very hard to believe, but sometimes words and gestures mean different things depending on who’s using them or in what context.

Cyril: Not a question but your comment in last week’s chat about Marvel characters solving disputes by throwing one another into buildings made me laugh out loud.
Keith Law: It was my #1 complaint about the Spider-verse movie. Like, guys, it’s a cartoon. You can make the characters do literally *anything* … and they just swing from their spidey-silk and throw each other into buildings!

Matt: Have you heard much about the Padres’ decision to convert Javier Guerra to a RP? When was the last time this guy actually pitched!?
Keith Law: I don’t think he had ever pitched before instructs. Eric Longenhagen has seen him twice now – he’s your best source on that.

Eric: My 3-year-old son is starting preschool in a few weeks. Any tips for getting him prepared so it’s a smooth transition?
Keith Law: I wish I did have good advice. My daughter was all in – the day we dropped her off she ran right in to play with the other kids and introduced herself. She is the opposite of me in so many of the best ways.

Will: Thanks for the update on Bleday & the other #VandyBoys prospects. Any thoughts on Phillip Clarke? He’s another draft-eligible sophomore.
Keith Law: Given that he’s a Vandy sophomore, I didn’t think he was good enough to be drafted (and signable) this year. I could be way off but that was my take.

Kirk: when you put Balazovic on your near miss list, you caught a lot of Twins fans off guard. Stat line looks good so far – still see the same ceiling so far?
Keith Law: Yep, no change.

Hufflepuff: Sam Huff is a 21 year old catcher repeating at low-A in the Sally League. He’s also got 15 home runs this year, and is putting up video game numbers for Hickory. Is it premature to start mentally sliding him up a few rungs on the Rangers prospect rankings list?
Keith Law: Yes, too old for the level.

Andy: Wasn’t Brandon McIlwain supposed to be a surefire first round pick this year?
Keith Law: No, definitely not. Just a name to watch now that he was finally supposed to play regularly (before he got hurt).

Jason: Cristian Pache’s slash line is .319/.366/.540; since all I can do is scout the stat line, should I be concerned about his low walk rate, or is his average so high that you wouldn’t expect him to be walking more?
Keith Law: I doubt he’ll ever be a high-walk guy. I think he’ll hit for enough average, with 20+ homer power, and absolutely elite defense.

Debo: Hi Keith. I am relocating to Wilmington for work. Many of my future colleagues are advising against the Delaware public school system. What was your approach when moving to area? Thanks.
Keith Law: It’s a little district-by-district. There are also a lot of charter schools here, some very good (and some terrible), if you don’t have a philosophical objection to them. And there are many private schools with long histories, some of which are focused on specific areas (e.g., I know of one that’s known as a good sportsball school). Feel free to hit me up outside the chat if this looks like it’s happening.

Josh: I have written ESPN my Plus subscription walks the moment you do. Thanks for all of the consistently high quality work.
Keith Law: You’re welcome – and thank you for that, especially since I’m in the last year of my deal.

JJ: Prospects to watch at a Yardgoats game? Is Phil Nevin’s kid a guy?
Keith Law: He is a guy. Also, what a great ballpark.

Josh: Curious what newspaper(s) you subscribe to, if any?
Keith Law: Digital only: Washington Post, New Yorker.

Jeff: Why does Brett Baty’s age come up a lot more than Bobby Witt Jr.? Is the 6 months that big or is it more the level of talent top 5 vs. mid-late 1st?
Keith Law: Sliding scale – your actual age (probably the delta between your age and the average) goes into the formula. The more days away from the mean you are, the more you get dinged.
Keith Law: Or I guess raised if you’re young.
Keith Law: OK, I went long today to make up for the lost time earlier. It’s been a series of house calamities this week but at least now I can do laundry again. Thank you for your patience and for all of your questions this week. I’m sorry I couldn’t get to more. I will chat again next week and hope to resume the Periscope chats very soon since the draft is just around the corner.

My ranking of the top 50 prospects for this year’s draft is up now for ESPN+ subscribers, as is a new scouting notebook covering six prep prospects I saw in April, five of whom are on the top 50.

Keith Law: Sometimes you break a finger on the upper hand. Klawchat.

Randal Grichuk: Tim Anderson is on an insane streak right now, but even though he has made some improvements, a lot of it is BABIP related. Moncada has cut his K-rate by 10% and has been awesome, but also has a high BABIP (although, with his contact profile and high exit velocity/speed, he could honestly be a .350 BABIP guy like Baez/Judge). Which of the two do you think is gonna end the season as better offensively, and do you agree that Moncada’s BABIP doesn’t need to regress *that* much due to his contact profile?
Keith Law: I’d rather bet on Anderson’s long term future.

Ray: I’m a big fan of Samin Nosrat’s show and cookbook , Salt Fat Acid Heat. Curious if you’ve seen/read either and what you thought?
Keith Law: I own the book but haven’t read it yet.

Bob: I hear a lot of complaining about the MLB ball wildly inflating AAA HR rates. If the point of bringing the MLB ball to AAA was to help players make the transition to MLB (I think that’s true?), then is this actually a problem or is this the policy working the way it was supposed to?
Keith Law: The bigger problem is that the MLB ball sucks. The answer to the problem was to un-juice the MLB ball, not bring the bad ball to AAA.

David: Enjoy your game lists. A long time ago you recommended Metro, a tile-laying game that has a similar format as many on your current top 100. Just wondering what happened to it – did you stop playing it because of the flood of new games, is it out of print, or did others just surpass it in your mind? Metro has long been one of our favorites, and it’s faster to play and simpler to set up and score than many of the more current games on the list, which is a plus for us. We just picked up Carcassonne finally (thanks for the link to the one-day sale!) and the game mechanics seem pretty similar so far, so I’m sure we’ll enjoy that one too.
Keith Law: Haven’t played it in years mostly because there are many better games in that vein – Carcassonne of course, but also Cacao, Karuba.

Kyle KS: I’ll eat some crow today on my Dexter Fowler question from a few weeks ago. He’s been a force since then and it has been fun watching him and Martinez get playing time and be all smiles in the outfield. You were right that they should keep giving him playing time. So no question, just a thanks for your work!
Keith Law: It’s still so damn early – everyone wants to react to the tiny samples of a few weeks of games but we have no real way to distinguish signal from noise in this little data.

Bob: Tirso Ornelas is off to a solid start, but not showing much HR power in the CAL. I’ve heard his called a potential middle of the order hitter. Does he have 25 HR/yr pop when he matures or a bit less than that?
Keith Law: He’s 19 in high-A. I don’t think he’s a future 30 HR guy, but please stop stat-scouting teenagers playing that far above their age level.

addoeh: Looks like you were able to see Quinn Priester on one of the few recent nice days in the Chicago area. Do you have any more thoughts on him beyond what you wrote in the top 50 draft piece or was there a draft prospect blog post I missed?
Keith Law: I have a blog post covering him, Barco, Callihan, Nunez, Siani, and Newell that should go up today.

Bob: Daniel Lynch has been extremely hitable in Wilmington. Have you seen him at all? I’m wondering to what extent that’s bad defense, bad luck or perhaps a sign that his stuff is a bit short for a mid-rotation projection.
Keith Law: I saw him. He’s fine.
Keith Law: Again, don’t scout the stat line.

James: Gallen for the Marlins and VanMeter for the Reds have big changes in their stats this year compared to last, are either of them good enough to be a regular going forward?
Keith Law: Gallen’s a back-end starter, still. Van Meter isn’t a shortstop, and obviously not a 50 HR guy, but he can hit and has come into more power even going back into last year, enough that I think he’s a clear big leaguer, maybe not with a set position but someone who can play semi-regularly while moving around.

Mike Greer: Is Devers slow’ish start mostly a product of not barreling the ball & poor launch angle (1.1% Barrel% | 5.6% LA) or is it a product of the skills not being as good as we thought? I know you’re bullish on him, but I wanted to see if your early season assessment has changed at all.
Keith Law: No, my early season assessment has not changed at all.

Frank V: Jesse Winker’s early season power numbers look great, regardless of his low AVG and poor BAIBP luck – do you think we are looking at a star in the making?
Keith Law: Yes, he was on my breakout list for that reason – that I think the power he showed last year was real.

Este: Thots on The hype surrounding Vladdy already. I saw video in the streets of d.r. of people cheering on his routine putouts. I love it
Keith Law: I love it too. I’d love it more if he’d been treated fairly, and if MLB and the Jays hadn’t been promoting him while also suppressing his salary.

Mike: Keith, love the chats. I know you can’t draft for need, but the Mets really have no OF prospects in full season ball. Would you recommend they draft an OF in first 2 rounds or still draft BPA?
Keith Law: Always, always, always draft best player available.
Keith Law: That said, don’t be shocked if they end up with a college bat at 12.

Patrick: Did you do Endgame? If so, had you seen all the movies leading up to it?
Keith Law: Hell no. One, I won’t go sit through any three-hour movie in a theater. But two, time travel is the *laziest* plot device ever. I don’t bother with movies that insult the audience’s intelligence like that.

Joe: Keith, how would you rate Adley compared to other recent top draft prospects? Is he the best prospect since Harper?
Keith Law: No, definitely not “the best since Harper.” He’s fine, not clearly 1-1 in every draft though.

Mike G: Worried about Royce Lewis’s slow start?
Keith Law: About his start, no. About the changes to his mechanics – he’s gotten very noisy, with a hitch now and multiple triggers – yes.

Drew W: Totally SSS, but Nolan Gorman’s power sure is playing up in Peoria. Would you put it as high as 70?
Keith Law: I put it at 80 in 2018 before he was drafted.

JAS: Is it reasonable to expect the Padres to contend when most of their hitters seem allergic to taking walks? They are next to last in OB%, and it seems to be a system wide issue.
Keith Law: Their system as a whole and major-league roster in particular are all very young.

BigDaddeh: Has Gosuke Katoh taken the leap or is this SSS noise?
Keith Law: SSS. He slugged .335 last year.

Dr. Bob: Hey there, Keith. Cardinals, Rays, and Twins are making your preseason predictions looking pretty good right now.
Keith Law: It’s nice to get something right occasionally.

Elizabeth Warren 2020: How depressing is it that we (myself included) feel comfortable writing off Mayor Pete in the primary, largely over a weak position on vaccines, but at the same time would take Richard Nixon’s head in a jar over Trump in the general election? Really shows how far apart the two parties are.
Keith Law: Are those even the same question, though? The former is Buttigieg vs the field of candidates; the latter is Buttigieg vs Trump. Of course I’d take the field in the former and Mayor Pete in the latter. (He did clarify that he opposes nonmedical exemptions.)

Robert: How high are you on Xavier Edwards? I know it’s still early but batting 400 with strong BB skills first year out of HS in the cold MW league is impressive. Even with the lack of power can he be a 55? See any Dee Gordon to his game?
Keith Law: I’m a fan, but he’s nothing like Dee Gordon.

Robert: Would you cut bait on Kinsler and just start Urias if you’re the Padres?
Keith Law: Yes.

Moe Mentum: Nick Pivetta. Should he convert to the bullpen, or can he figure it out to be a mid-rotation starter?
Keith Law: I’ve thought he would go to the pen for a while because he doesn’t have a viable pitch for lefties.

Meeeeeeeeeee: Do you think hitters are getting used to the higher velocity of the past decade, and (if so) could that possibly lead to teams giving more chances to pitchers who rely on guile and pitching knowledge (like a Jamie Moyer type, for example)?
Keith Law: Teams seem to be more concerned with guys who have strong secondary stuff now – Matt Allan is the top prep arm this year because he has the best breaking ball of that group – or who have clean deliveries and athleticism so that they can go into a player development system that works to develop new or refine existing pitches.

KLAU: Where does Shea Langeliers go at this point? Still a 1st rounder?
Keith Law: yes. Somewhere in the 15-30 range.

Meeeeeeeeeee: What is the political atmosphere like in Delaware regarding Biden? Are people excited, or do they have a ‘been there/done that’ attitude about him running?
Keith Law: He’s less popular locally than you might think.

Sage: Is Jon Lester best FA signing by Cubs EVER ?
Keith Law: Dawson in 1987 is tough to beat, but that’s not a fair comparison.

Greg: Hey Keith, Austin Riley’s K rate went from 29% last year to 21% in 100+ PAs this year. Is that enough sample size to believe in, or still small sample size?
Keith Law: Take a guess.

Gene: I miss Jarred Kelenic and I didn’t even like the trade at the time
Keith Law: He’s had a funny/weird season too. He started out 2 for 25 in his first seven games, with 7 BB and 9 K. Since then he’s hit in every game (17) and is at .456/.513/.868 in that stretch.

steve: Keith: Very impressive year plus for Red sox prospect Jarren Duran. Profile seems to be slap hitter with speed/ What are your thoughts here. Also does CJ Chatham have a big league future in him?
Keith Law: Duran is legit, chance to be a regular. Can really hit. Chatham probably a UT.

Jeff: To be clear, you think there is such a thing as a 9 year old “trans” child?
Keith Law: What I think is immaterial. Nine-year-old children can be transgender; that is just a fact. That’s not to say that all children who exhibit gender nonconforming behavior are trans, but a child nine or even younger can identify as a different gender than the one they were assigned at birth. Denying this fact will just do more harm to these children, who already experience sky-high rates of suicide and violence.

Tom: Who’s the best reliever only draft prospect this year, and could they be ready for October in the majors?
Keith Law: I have yet to hear of any relief prospect in this draft who is good enough to get to the majors this year.

Eric: Do you think Pete Alonso is an All-Star caliber player?
Keith Law: I think he’ll make the team this year, almost certainly.

David: Should the Braves bench Ender and play Camargo everyday? Ender hasn’t been good at all offensively and with Acuna shouldn’t he be in CF anyway?
Keith Law: Yes, I’ve been arguing that for a while now.

Steve: With the top 4 probably gone, who should the Tigers target?
Keith Law: I’ll do a mock for Monday but I don’t know that the top 4 will be gone either.

Eric: What is the ceiling for Simeon-Woods ?
Keith Law: #2 starter? Heard very good things back to last summer, have not seen him myself yet.

Zach: Is there an adjusted BABIP stat that accounts for hard-hit and line drive %?
Keith Law: Several, but I don’t think any of them has a high enough predictive value to rely upon.

Chris: Can Chavis play 2nd long term? Or is he strictly a corner infielder?
Keith Law: I’d be surprised if he could play anywhere but first base as a regular. He might hit enough to be a regular at 1b though.

Eric: At what age would starting books with actual stories and chapters be appropriate?
Keith Law: I can only speak to my daughter’s experience but I was reading her simple books like the original Mary Poppins stories and Winnie-the-Pooh when she was 4. There’s so much value in the interaction itself – the time you’re spending with your child as you read to them – that I wouldn’t worry if your kid isn’t grasping every word. It’s just so valuable to be with them one-on-one like that.

Zac: What does Derek Hill have to hit to be a glove first center fielder?
Keith Law: If he keeps doing what he’s done in a tiny sample this year – which is brand new for him, so I’m not saying I buy into it – then he’s going to be at least a quality fourth outfielder for a long time.
Keith Law: He’s that good a defender and runner. He’s also barely getting on base right now, even with much improved power, so maybe it’s nothing.

John: I read an article today saying the Dodgers already won the Puig-Kemp trade because they got back Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I liked the trade more for them at the time, since they acquired two real prospects for guys whose contracts were ending soon anyway.

Beans Mahones: Corbin Carroll with some helium. Anything on fellow WA HS OF Joshua Mears?
Keith Law: Mears maybe 30-60 range in the draft. Someone I considered for the top 50 but just left off.

Raani: You would cease contact with your parents if they hadn’t vaccinated you when you were young? Dude, are you mentally ill?
Keith Law: Technically, yes, I am, as I have been diagnosed with anxiety disorder, but since you’re using “mentally ill” as an insult, kindly go fuck yourself.

Ryan: any good HS prospects in Minneapolis this year?
Keith Law: Not on my top 50 but Drew Gilbert and Will Frisch at Stillwater HS, both committed to Oregon State, are both prospects even though they might end up at school (to be overused like Abel and Rasmussen?).

Jim: Keith, I know it’s SSS and all that, but at what point do you sit someone who’s not hitting and not looking particularly good (I’m looking at you, Brian Dozier & Ryan Zimmerman)? After all, while it’s early, it’s not too early to dig too deep a hole for a team to get out of. Thanks, and welcome back!
Keith Law: Feel like Dozier is someone you’d give up on more than Zimmerman.

Chris P: When you say “non-prospect” that obviously means a guy isn’t going to become a star, but what would you call a guy that wont make your lists but likely can stay in the big leagues for 5-7 years?
Keith Law: Sometimes I would just say “big leaguer,” or extra guy or reserve. I think some readers would view any of those as denigrating the player, but it’s really not – it takes a lot of ability to get to that point.

Stubbs: Julio Rodriguez (SEA-OF) is a Guy?
Keith Law: He’s a prospect – but he’s hurt now, unfortunately.

alex: Who has the bigger upside, DL Hall or Grayson Rodriguez? I think Hall because he is LH, but GRod seems to be doing well and is a big dude. Thanks
Keith Law: Rodriguez has more size and velocity but I’d bet on Hall having the better career.

Troy: What is your favorite protein to cook with?
Keith Law: Duck.

Chris P: I try to remind myself that nothing really matters until the end of June…but I’m definitely enjoying this Buxton comeback so far
Keith Law: He was also pretty good the last five months of 2017, before injuries ruined his 2018. I’m more inclined to buy into a good April when there is preceding performance to support it.

Michael: How much confidence do you have in ranking a player in the top 50 that you’ve never seen but have heard great things about from others you trust?
Keith Law: I do enough work on those players that I feel pretty confident in the 50 guys I listed. I’ve seen 25 of the 50 on my list so far this spring, not counting anyone I saw last summer.

Snowy: Is McKay’s ceiling an ace? Or more of a #2?
Keith Law: More of a #2 due to lack of a clear plus pitch.

Troy: Does Dakota Hudson rate out as a 1 or 2 starter long term?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s a starter long term.

Tyson: Keith, who is the most talented high schooler outside of Harper you have ever evaluated?
Keith Law: Of course we didn’t know at the time but the accurate answer would be Mike Trout.

Alex: Is Yordan Alvarez a major leaguer given his defense liabilities?
Keith Law: Definitely a major leaguer.

Peter Brand: Thoughts on Caster Semenya ruling?
Keith Law: Gross and scientificially inaccurate. There is no such thing as a “male hormone;” all humans produce testosterone, and calling that a male hormone is just ignorant. Gross because this feels like white women mad they couldn’t beat the black woman so they got a court to rule her some kind of freak.

Chris P: What’s the deal with Quantrill now? I know his 2018 was a disaster, so has something changed?
Keith Law: Yeah, his velocity is mostly back. He was 93-96 last night, which is much closer to his 2016 self. I’m intrigued.

Bynd : What is your impression of Beyond Meat?
Keith Law: I’ve cooked their burgers a few times and they’re great. My biggest complaint is how wasteful the packaging is.

Luke: No question, just wanted to say thank you for all the work you do. My wife’s son and I greatly enjoy it.
Keith Law: You’re quite welcome. I’m glad many of you enjoy it.

John: I’m seeing Cal play next week at USF, do you see Darren Baker as an early round prospect?
Keith Law: No. He can run, not sure there’s much else. Their first baseman is pretty good though…

Troy: When is it a trend instead of a SSS? June1?
Keith Law: There is no concrete date after which all sample sizes are automagically non-small. As the sample sizes grow, our confidence in the signal should gradually increase.

Frank: if you had to chose 1, Waters or Pache? (luckily the braves dont have to make this decision)
Keith Law: Pache. Elite defender with power.

Michael: For those confused on small sample size, Betts went from .239 to .290 in six games. It’s so early.
Keith Law: Perfect example.

Tadd: Josh Bell is…..very good? That boy has been CRUSHING baseballs this year.
Keith Law: He’s always had the ability, but for whatever reason he didn’t seem to try to drive the ball even in AA and certainly not in the majors. The Pirates signaled a whole new hitting approach for this year; maybe he’s the big beneficiary.

Sam: Thoughts on CHVRCHES saying they refuse to work with Marshmello again after he worked with Chris Brown and Tyga?
Keith Law: Good for them.

Jeff: Is there a Dominic Smith solution? He’s been raking when getting AB’s but you can’t really blame NYM for playing Alonso. Has to be a trade in the near future right?
Keith Law: Yep. Can’t bench Alonso, can’t let Smith rot on the vine. Best solution is a trade, once they decide what they most need.

PD: Will we see another draft pick go straight to the majors again?
Keith Law: I can’t say never, but it’s not bloody likely.

Jay: Do you think Cole Tucker has the ability to stick with the Pirates all season or will one of the Seinfeldian Kevin’s push him back to the minors due to service time considerations?
Keith Law: Wouldn’t surprise me if he ended the year as their shortstop or second baseman – his arm has been inconsistent for me post-surgery – but I don’t think they’re gaming his service time.

Frank: Tapia looks like an exciting player in Colorado…i wish they’d release Desmond but its nice to see him sit 3-4 days a week.
Keith Law: Tapia is unconventional but he’s got crazy hand-eye and I think he’ll hit as long as he’s given playing time.

Victoria: Luis Urias showcasing some previously unheard of power. Any thoughts for this to continue this year / into the bigs? A mirage?
Keith Law: Small sample + crazy hitter’s environment + new juiced balls in AAA. (The baseballs are juiced, I mean. Stop that.)

Eric: (can we not refer to josh bell as “boy,” please …)
Keith Law: Sorry, I completely missed that. You are correct.

Uli Jon: It seems you get a lot of response on your philosophy on hiring domestic abusers. I imagine there’s some scenario where you might allow it – the perpetrator is genuinely contrite, accepts their punishment, is open to exploring underlying issues that led them there, engage personally, financially, and in perpetuity with organizations and victims. As far as examples of this…wait, still checking.
Keith Law: Right – can we have one such case of a player expressing actual remorse and acting upon it in a meaningful way first? Trea Turner handled the revelation of his past homophobic tweets extremely well, so the community as a whole forgave him and moved past it. Josh Hader didn’t, and plenty of us still think he got away with something. In the case of (more serious) DV suspensions, every single player has talked his way around what he actually did.

Marco: We have nearly 2 full baseball seasons, including playoffs and World Series, until the next Presidential election. Do you agree that the breathless media coverage of every schmoe that announces their candidacy is bordering on lunacy?
Keith Law: Yes. I’d go further, that I think the ridiculous coverage and the desperate need to rank all these candidates, including the various slapdicks throwing in their hats when we’ve never heard of them before, subverts any semblance of a rational process.

Danny: Is Andrew Dalquist a Yankee target at 30/38 (he’s the only SoCal prep arm on the list)
Keith Law: I haven’t heard them at all with him or any prep arms for them right
now.

Grover: Any chance you think we might see May or Gonsolin called up for LAD this fall?
Keith Law: Doubtful. Again, I don’t like saying never, but it doesn’t make a ton of sense.

Moose: White Sox seem allergic to prep players with 1st round picks. Would they consider Witt if Adley & Vaughn go 1 and 2?
Keith Law: I don’t think Witt gets to them right now, but I don’t think it’s an “allergy” but a preference. They have a good system with a young core in the majors and a few more prospects near the majors, so it makes some sense to focus on guys who’ll move quickly.

Devon: What’s the story with Jamie Westbrook in the DBacks system? He’s hitting well (granted, its in the PCL) but is he a prospect?
Keith Law: I don’t think he is.

Corey: Boston’s slow start has resulted from many things, bullpen not really being one of them despite the media’s off-season worry beads. And there appears to be quite a bit of reliever depth in the system. Can we stick a pin in the Boston needs to sign Kimbrel thing ? Not going to happen given the actual cost after tax penalties. I don’t think the Sox need anything other than just to play better (and a 2b staying healthy)
Keith Law: Agreed. I feel like the bullpen is not near the list of their biggest problems, and also something they could fix more easily.

Danny: Do you think Luke Voit’s success is sustainable and did prospect analysts “miss” on him?
Keith Law: Lindsey Adler has a great piece on him in the Athletic (in the Athletic or on the Athletic?) that talks about the changes in his entire approach since the Yankees acquired him. I think much of it is sustainable because there’s a foundation of tangible changes there.

Dick Hickock & Perry Smith: Have yu ever read In Cold Blood? Thoughts?
Keith Law: I did. Capote falling in love with one of the murderers is problematic, to be kind, but it’s a hell of a read.

Minny: Alex Kirilloff was just activated today at AA. Does his injury to start the season remove any hope (if there ever was any) of seeing him in September? Or does the Twins competitive team and full OF make it a moot point anyway?
Keith Law: Yeah it’ll take an injury to find a spot for him, I think.

Jerry: Astros team offensive numbers looking pretty good. Except for hitting with RISP. Reason for concern or simply wait for regression to the mean?
Keith Law: Batting with RISP is just batting. There’s no such thing as a hitter who only hits without RISP.

Adam D.: I get what you’re saying about time travel being lazy as a plot device. And certainly if you aren’t invested in the characters and stories they’ve built up, Endgame doesn’t make much sense to go see. That said, for those of us who are invested, I did not feel insulted by the use of time travel at all. It’s handled far better than just about any movie besides maybe Looper, and the payoffs are tremendous.
Keith Law: Meh. If you guys like it, great, but my daughter watched Infinity War last week and I couldn’t get through a half hour. I also kind of have an issue with the whole characters throwing each other into buildings, off buildings, into walls, etc. as a means of conflict resolution.

Mark: Chris Sale, there’s obviously something wrong with his arm/shoulder right? You would think the Sox have done countless tests on his arm since last year, especially before signing him to an extension so what the heck is going on?
Keith Law: He doesn’t look healthy at all. I can’t speak to what the Red Sox did before the extension, but he looks (from his stuff and command) like someone who is pitching hurt.

MacDaddy: Thoughts on the possibility of George Valera finishing the year as a top 25 prospect?
Keith Law: No.

Jeff: Thanks for the chats/tweets/content. Are there any college games you are planning to scout in the near future?
Keith Law: I’m planning to hit the ACC tournament and I want to go see Vanderbilt before then. That’s probably it – it’s writing/phone calls/texting time for me, with the draft 32 days away (cue @infinite_scream).

Nate: Why do you spend so much time arguing with random people on Twitter? Wouldnt that time be better spent on your family or on your marriage or some other worthwhile endeavor?
Keith Law: The irony of someone coming to my free chat, which I do on my own time for no direct compensation, to ask this question is really quite something.

Randy: Just started getting into coffee recently, what kind of coffee maker would you recommend starting off?
Keith Law: I got a Hario V60 pour-over setup, which uses paper cone filters, for making myself a cup of coffee. It’s like $25, doesn’t require a fancy grinder, and aside from the fact that it takes about five minutes to make a cup it’s easy and convenient.

Hi: Despite you being Luis Robert’s Kryptonite, what are your thoughts on him? Has his performance warranted a bump up on top prospect lists?
Keith Law: I wrote him up last month, but I don’t move players up my lists after three weeks in the minors, sorry.

Joe: Keith, Blake Rutherford has been bruuuutal so far. Safe to write him off?
Keith Law: Just set him to the side. I really hate the idea of calling a player a bust, or assuming he’ll never turn into anything. Look at Voit, for example. Or, less extreme, Max Kepler, who is having his first good (maybe very good?) MLB season right now (SSS) *ten years* after he signed as an amateur. Guys change, they grow and mature on their timetables, and so they can always surprise us.

Josh: What are your thoughts on how Alex Verdugo has looked so far? Seems even better than I anticipated, especially holding his own against lefties.
Keith Law: He’d earned the opportunity on the field, at least. I feel better about him hitting .300+ going forward than about him slugging .600+.

Troy: I know you’ve mentioned autism is far more likely in older fathers. As a 41 year old having one last child should I be concerned?
Keith Law: Not sure you can do anything about it. Just hope for the best!

Danny: You saw Deivi’s “debut” in AA (he had a spot start in Trenton last year)? How is his changeup coming along and do you think he stays in the rotation?
Keith Law: I’ll write up the start soon, but his changeup was above average for me.

Questioning: What’s the difference between transgender and intersex? I know that the brain can be wired differently to not match genitalia, or there are both or no genitalia. But I’m confused on the specifics and want to understanding.
Keith Law: The Intersex Society of North America has a great answer to this Intersex encompasses a lot of conditions, but the best lay explanation I can think of is that they are born neither clearly male nor clearly female, which includes their genitalia. Many of these theocratic, GOP-pushed laws punishing trans people will also adversely affect intersex people, which is an added layer of injustice.

Mike: What do you think about how the Cubs have/are handling the Addison Russell situation?
Also, when does Kris Bryant start hitting again?
Keith Law: They should have non-tendered Russell in December. That was their biggest mistake.

AGirlHasNoName: If the Cubs were going to extend Baez, what would the numbers look like? Would you try to do it if you were the Cubs?
Keith Law: I would definitely try to extend him. Maybe offer him 6 years $125 million? Covers two arb years, four FA years.

Matthew: SSS of course but has Alec Hansen found a home in the pen? If he keeps the walks down, could he close?
Keith Law: Not sure about closing, but he’s back on the path to the majors. I saw him here a few weeks ago – his delivery is simpler now, just very functional, not great but it helps him throw strikes.

Jerry: RE: Troy. My children were born when I was 42 and 45. Both turned out fine. My nephew was born when my BIL was 31. He’s on the spectrum. Like Keith said, you just hope for the best.
Keith Law: So many of these things are risk factors but far from definitive. I think I mentioned this issue with respect to Robert Deniro, who was 55 when his son, who has autism, was born. Big difference there.

Tim : Heard you were one of the most sought after bachelors in Delaware.
Keith Law: The girls, the girls they love me…
Keith Law: (That’s Heavy D. I know it was recycled into another song more recently, but please, let’s stick with the classics.)

Drew: I just finished the Whiskey Robber book. I have no idea how I wasn’t aware of him, what an incredible story. Great recommendation.
Keith Law: Glad you liked it! One of my five favorite nonfiction books ever. Delightfully bonkers.

Chuck: If I could search all prospect rankings for keywords, would a phrase similar to “great athlete who just needs to make better contact to be a 5 tool stud” have the worst performance relative to ranking?
Keith Law: Agreed. I had this chat with a scout the other day – we can talk tools all we want but you have to hit.

Greg: Do you have any thoughts on the chickenpox vaccine? My kids have all their usual vaccinations, but I do wonder if they even need a chickenpox vaccine. Overkill, or long overdue?
Keith Law: Long overdue and utterly necessary. Varicella can kill adults.

Brett: Do you watch Jeopardy? Have been watching the run James is on? Guy is impressive. Love how he uses his math skills to increase his odds.
Keith Law: I don’t but it’s a great story and apparently he’s a hardcore baseball fan (and stats nerd, a term I use with great endearment).

Justin R: Ever think of doing a juice cleanse?
Keith Law: I don’t believe in pseudoscience, sorry.

Justin R: I know you don’t care about either, but if you’re at a bar and the NHL and NBA playoffs are on, which one are you ignoring less?
Keith Law: More likely to watch hockey.

Ed: You don’t strike me as an overweight lover !!
Keith Law: No, but I am currently in the house.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions and patience with my erratic schedule the last month-plus. It’ll calm down for the foreseeable future as I focus more on draft writing and less on traveling to see players. (I realized I’m also still trying to see Corbin Carroll, as well as Bleday and the ACC guys, then I’m done.) I should be back for a fresh chat next Thursday, and the mock (projected) first round is scheduled to go up Monday for ESPN+ subscribers. Thank you again!

My column on the most loaded minor league rosters this spring is up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: Freeze this moment a little bit longer. It’s Klawchat.

addoeh: Yes, it’s April 11, but the Cubs bullpen might just be dumpster_fire.gif
Keith Law: And they really didn’t do enough to address it this winter. I’m not necessarily on the ‘sign Kimbrel’ train – I’ve said before I have concerns that he’s on the downswing after 2018 – but he’d be a big upgrade over literally every reliever they have.

addoeh: How much is Chris Davis’s roster status and playing time an ownership directive, rather than a front office or managerial decision?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to that. I would guess his playing time will decline if/when they choose to bring other position players up or grab someone off waivers to whom they want to give a trial.

alex: I know it’s easy to make fun of Chris Davis on twitter– but there have been some articles which discusses that he has become depressed– maybe not in a clinical sense (since there is, as far as I know, he has seen a psychologist for depression)– does that make you reconsider some of the things you have tweeted? As an Os fan, I’d like to see him retire/release/buy out, but I don’t want him to decide to end things the way Mike Flanagan did.
Keith Law: I have tweeted very little about him, so no. I don’t want to appear to be exulting in his struggles. I tweeted once about the time I argued that Jim Bowden was bonkers for suggesting the Orioles should give Davis at least a six-year deal, and made one joke specifically about Davis’ stat line yesterday. Anything more would start to feel like I was attacking the person rather the contract or the production.

Kyle KS: Do you roll the dice with Jose Martinez in RFif your the Cardinals at this point? When does the better defense (although not good defense) of Fowler stop outweighing the fact that he hits with a pool noodle?
Keith Law: I’d like to give Fowler more time; it doesn’t seem like he’s hitting with a pool noodle, as you say, as he has some hard-hit balls already this year.

Swagboy: Does Zach Eflin have any realistic chance at becoming a reliable starter for a Phillies team trying to contend? Would his (realistic) best case scenario be a #4, or could he surpass that? I’d be thrilled if he had 3-3.5 win potential this year.
Keith Law: I think he could be better than a #4, yes.

Bob: You tweeted about Daniel Lynch’s velocity in his most recent start. I saw his first start and it seemed like there was a lot of contact on his secondaries and he would resort to the big fastball to get out of trouble. Do you think he can develop a 2nd (and 3rd!) pitch that can be a swing and miss weapon as he moves up?
Keith Law: That’s not at all what happened in his second start, though. His changeup was above/plus and his slider was sometimes above.

Bob: Hans Crouse is off to a great start. Any idea if there’s been improvement on broadening his repertoire or just blowing hitters away with a limited more reliever-ish arsenal. If the latter, what’s a better approach – forcing him to throw secondary pitchers at that level or pushing him up until better hitters force him to adjust?
Keith Law: I’ve heard it’s more of the same. Not that that’s bad, but I agree eventually he’ll have to adjust.

gavin: are the Padres for real?
Keith Law: They are absolutely a real major league team, which I imagine comes as a surprise to a large portion of MLB’s fan base. They’re also probably good enough to push past .500 this year if they stay healthy.

Josh C: Fangraphs wrote up Astros prospect Abraham Toro as being “divisive” within the industry. What are your thoughts on him? Regular, bench player, not even a guy?
Keith Law: Bench player. I’d have to know what Eric/Kiley meant by divisive to say more, although I trust them if they said that.

Keith: How many PAs typically indicate a stabilized view on K%s and BB%s? Any indication that Moncada has changed his approach in a meaningful way to reduce his K% and increase contact?
Keith Law: There isn’t a clear number for that. I know everyone wants a fixed answer, but that’s not how any statistical distribution works – your confidence that the number is ‘real’ will increase with sample size. I’d be surprised if this Moncada start was sustainable.

Mac: If Rutschman and Vaughn go 1-1 and 1-2 have any college hitters moved into the 1-3 discussion or would the White Sox be choosing between Witt Jr. and Abrams?
Keith Law: Witt Jr, Abrams, Greene, and possibly Bleday (there’s your college hitter) would be the top 6. Lodolo is the only pitcher I can think of who might go top ten, although that’s a reach for me.

Matt: Is this the Maikel Franco we’ve been waiting for?!
Keith Law: No, more a function of hitting 8th.

Rangers: What do you think of our new HR celebration? Inappropriate, wtf, or don’t care?
Keith Law: Don’t care. Celebrate all you want. Have fun.

KillMonger: Fried & Swanson — too early to predict whether either can sustain their success this year?
Keith Law: Too early, yes, but optimistic on both.

Santos: If Kuechel’s demands have actually come down, should the Phillies be seriously considering him? Rotation looks thin and/or volatile.
Keith Law: If I were a GM looking for pitching – Klentak qualifies – I’d be more comfortable “overpaying” for short-term production from Keuchel than Kimbrel. One, I think Keuchel is just better period. Two, I feel better about paying a starter than a reliever.

Tony Stromboli: Logan Gilbert is maintaining the velocity he showed end of last year that raised some eyebrows — at least, through 2 starts. Do you have any general thoughts about him you’d like to share?
Keith Law: I heard 93-95 from a scout who just saw him. He pitched through some minor injuries last spring that probably explained the drop from 92-95 on the Cape in 2017 to 88-92 last summer. I still ranked him as a mid-first rounder even with that velocity because I thought the command and breaking ball made him a potential league-average starter anyway.

Hank: During the off-season you praised the Jays for their hire if Charlie Montoyo. How do you feel about the hiring now that he’s come out saying he likes bunting?
Keith Law: I can still like a manager overall even if he is really stupid about one thing (and, come on, Chuck, stop fucking bunting so much).

Salzer: Do you continue to try Alex Reyes as a starter? He just seems too good to put in the bullpen.
Keith Law: Zero track record staying healthy as a starter. Not saying you don’t try it, but at some point the body is telling you something.

Aaron (Houston): KLAW, thanks for the chat. I have several relatives (parents and kids) who swear their kid (or themselves) can make it to the next level in baseball. With the chances being so small (to make it to the next level), is it not better to skip out on that dream, than try, only to fail, and possibly have no back up plan?
Keith Law: Why not make a backup plan? Not much of a life if you never try anything for fear of failure.

Grover: In the position the Giants are in should they consider trading Buster Posey?
Keith Law: Yes, but I doubt they do, given his status with the franchise.

Tom: Trent thorton – whats his ceiling?
Keith Law: It’s top-of-the-line stuff with below-average command, and I’m not sure he can ever have the command to get to starter quality.

Juwan: SSS of course, but the ball seems to be jumping off of Robles’ bat this season. He attributes the low exit velo to the elbow injury he had at the beginning of last year, it the extra base hit power is real and continues going forward, is he a future perennial all star at center, and does that make him one of the best players in baseball in a few seasons?
Keith Law: Yes to your first question and I’m not so sure about the second. I’d define “one of the best players in baseball” as, say, top 5-10 overall. I’d feel better about saying he’ll be a top 20 player in baseball. Not playing semantics games here, just trying to be clear.

James: SSS but are we sleeping on Franmil Reyes? Only hitting .143/.235/.286 but taking the batted ball data in account his expected BA is .324, expected SLG is .703, and expected WOBA is .440, all while posting great BB% & K% with a high average exit velocity.
Keith Law: Breakout candidate for me this year. Haven’t changed my view.

Jerry: I don’t know enough about it to have an informed opinion so here goes. Is there a legitimate reason to terminate the agreement between MLB and the Cuban Baseball Federation?
Keith Law: In my opinion, no. This reeks of 1) let’s undo the thing Obama did and 2) let’s pander to Cuban-American voters in Florida. The agreement solved a serious problem, and was between a private enterprise and a federation run by the Cuban government. The idea that allowing MLB to give money to an undemocratic regime is untenable while our government hands billions in foreign aid to undemocratic regimes that commit far more serious human rights violations is, to be kind, a bit inconsistent. Why does Cuba get special attention here? See 1 and 2.

Carter: Budget not an issue, where is the best place to sit for an MLB game? Right behind home plate?
Keith Law: Just get behind the net.

Samuel: We’re a little past the discussion at this point, but please tell me I’m not crazy. What Tom Izzo did during the NCAA Tournament wasn’t coaching, right? It wasn’t instructive, helpful, and encouraging. It was a person who was belittling, devaluing, and embarrassing someone he’s in charge of guiding, correct? I feel so discouraged that it seems I’m in the minority here, that we not only accept this behavior, but celebrate it.
Keith Law: I was this many days old when I learned that Tom Izzo is a college basketball coach. I think I only know who won on Monday because I follow Sean Doolittle on Twitter (which everyone should).

Brendan: What happens first? Chris Davis hit or Yu Darvish quality start?
Keith Law: I thought Darvish looked OK last night.

Mark: How long before Ryan Weathers is in Lake Elsinore? Is there anything he can realistically do to become a #1 or #2 starter type?
Keith Law: I’d bet on him spending most/all of the year in low-A and I don’t see a #2 in there unless he has a totally unexpected jump in velocity.

Kris: You pumped for GOT to return?
Keith Law: I have never watched a minute of that show. Rape and violence do not entertain me.

John Smoltz: What are your thoughts on Jesse Biddle? Do you think he can be converted into a starter?
Keith Law: I’d leave him right where he is.

Ben: Any new takeaways on M.J. Melendez or Seuly Matias from your recent look at Wilmington?
Keith Law: Blog post coming tomorrow or tonight. Started it right before this chat. I’ll cover Robert, Lynch, those guys. No Madrigal because he missed the two games I saw, supposedly with a cold.

Kretin: How is it in this day and age that people believe any of this anti-vax nonsense?
Keith Law: Dunning-Kruger syndrome.

Mark: Is Nick Margevicious a legit MLB starter going forward or is he just getting by on smoke and mirrors?
Keith Law: Back end starter. Also, I need someone with art or Photoshop skills to make a gif of Marge Simpson sneering like Sid Vicious with that punk hairdo.

John: Is Dylan Carlson a bench guy regular?
Keith Law: More.

Todd: Rep Tom Massie is confusing. He drives an electric Tesla, has solar powered house, talks all the time about conservation & sustainability. He does more to combat climate change on an individual level than most people…..yet denies climate change.
Keith Law: And he went to MIT. He can’t be as dumb as he sounded yesterday, can he? Is he just pandering to his constituents in rural Kentucky?

Justi: What does Nolan Gorman need to do to get into your top 100 at midseason? Is the lack of inclusion on your list due to swing and miss issues?
Keith Law: I had him in my top 50.
Keith Law: I mean, maybe just check my rankings before posting? It’ll make this a better experience for everyone.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Does a smaller sample size for someone like Julio Rodriguez, someone who the organization thought was advanced enough to tackle full season ball at 18, matter ever so slightly more? (enough to get excited, anyway)
Keith Law: No. Sample size doo doo do do do do, sample size doo doo do do do do…

Nick Grit: I’ve seen some pretty differing opinions on Casey Mize, with some referencing a ‘violent’ delivery and/or athleticism concerns. He has always struck me as a pretty complete pitcher coming out of college and pretty safe. It doesn’t seem like you are as worried as others about his health, is that accurate?
Keith Law: Yeah, those opinions to which you refer – and I honestly have never seen that anywhere – are wrong.

Bob: Better longterm outlook: Xavier Edwards, Tirso Ornelas, Josh Naylor.
Keith Law: Ornelas. All big leaguers though.

Blaine: Thanks for your review of the strategy game Wingspan. It’s beautifully made and a joy to play.
Keith Law: So good. I can’t wait till the next print run hits so I can tell you all to buy it.

Robert: Zack Brown has flown through the brewers system much like Corbin Burnes. What’s your report on him?
Keith Law: Also on my top 100.

Justin: Bryan Reynolds’ (obviously SSS, high babip, etc) hot start has me wondering. In general, how much can hamate surgery temporarily sap someone’s power? Would we be talking a full scouting grade?
Keith Law: I have heard estimates of up to 18 months – I remember an NHL player, Jason Allison (?), saying it took him that long to regain full strength after a broken wrist. I don’t think there’s a hard and fast rule, but I like to try to give guys a calendar year to get it back.

Ben: Any potential GUYS at LSU this year?
Keith Law: No.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Do you have any concerns about Vaughn, being a R/R 1B and all, going #2? Or is the bat that freaking good?
Keith Law: The bat is that fucking good, man.

Michael: Hi Keith- Thanks for the chat! I know you have said that baseball content outside of work feels like… well…work. But wondering if you have ever read the classic “Glory Of their Times” by Lawrence Ritter about the old days of baseball and what you thought of it.
Keith Law: I don’t think I ever read that one, although I read some books in that genre maybe 15-20 years ago. The whitewashing of the sordid parts of the game’s history grate on me.

ck: Keith, you had an exchange on Twitter last week about John Anderson of Minnesota allowing a pitch count to get dangerously high. Does he have a history of pitcher abuse? My sense is that in general he is very well regarded, and I had a personal experience with him (albeit over 30 years ago) that gave me a very favorable impression of him.
Keith Law: First time his name had come up in that context with me, but his inaction in that game was a major blunder.

Nelson: Do you think Acuna, Pache, and Waters will be the Braves’ 2021 Outfield?
Keith Law: I’ll buy that. And I’ll watch the hell out of it.

Grover: Why does the hypocrisy go over the heads of guys like Archer who beat their chest and flex after a strike out but take offense to a guy admiring the donger he just hit?
Keith Law: I understand your point, but as I said on Twitter about this, hypocrisy is beside the point. Throwing at a hitter is wrong, no matter who you are, and MLB should drop the hammer on those guys. It should go in the next CBA – you throw at a hitter, you get a mandatory suspension of, say, ten games. Enough to hurt the team, not just your paycheck, so your bosses and teammates might say, hey, cut that shit out, we need you to pitch.

Nils: You mentioned Mason Thompson in your ESPN article earlier this week. Is he long for the rotation or do you see him becoming a RP long term?
Keith Law: Starter.

Justi: Do the Reds bring up Senzel as soon as he’s healthy or are they gonna continue to be cute with him? He’s 23, what’s the holdup?
Keith Law: He’s hurt.

Ira: Do you have concerns about Chris Sale’s decreased average velocity on FB and general lack of usual dominance going back to middle of last season, especially given the extension he just received?
Keith Law: I’m concerned about the combination of reduced velocity and shoulder trouble from last year.

Ben: Any early rumblings at what the Tigers would do at 5? Do you think they would go for Witt if he falls or stick to college bats?
Keith Law: The list of six position players I mentioned above would apply to them too. Greene or Abrams, likely. Feel like they wouldn’t take Vaughn if he’s there.

Nick: Are you planning on seeing the West Virginia Power with Gilbert, Kelenic and Rodriguez?
Keith Law: If they come closer to me, and I’m free to go, sure. I don’t plan that far out.

TP: Can Freddy Peralta succeed as starter without better secondary pitches? Against the Reds last week, he threw 84 fastballs out of 100 pitches, but struck out 11 and gave up 2 hits over 8 IP. His other starts…not so great…
Keith Law: It’s all deception – his fastball isn’t very fast, but hitters don’t see it if he throws it up in the zone. I think he can start but have a lot of disaster starts along the way, to the point where he’s still valuable enough to start but that people in/out of the org wonder if he should be in a different role.

Josh: Was surprised not to see Dodgers’ Tulsa team on your loaded MiLB list. Not enough depth of talent there?
Keith Law: Right.

Michael: Any chance you saw that Gabe Kapler said that the Phillies can’t baby Roman Quinn? After all, Kapler said, he’s “not made of glass”. Wondering if you know if they actually had this confirmed by a medical doctor, as I have my doubts.
Keith Law: I actually thought he was made of glass, so this is big, if true.

Aaron G: Do the Yankees have the depth to lose Severino and not have to pick up Keuchel (and lose the draft pick)?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. At this point how much production would you project to get from Severino, with rotator cuff inflammation and now a lat injury that will probably keep him from pitching in the majors until at least June 1st?

Hoz: Hello Keith! Do you think Domingo German can stick and develop further into a 2 or 3 sp? Much thanks
Keith Law: No, I think he’s a reliever.

Jim: Is Josh Naylor’s bat good enough to supplant Franmil / Renfroe in SD as soon as opening day next season?
Keith Law: Reyes and Renfroe are outfielders, so no.

Everyone: ESPN’s updates on the website are whack. No pitching starts pace indicator and the FantasyCast is garbage compared to years past. So I guess my question is, what the hell?
Keith Law: Well, if I had anything to do with that, that would be useful, but this isn’t even an ESPN chat.

Mark: Do you post Klawchat schedules anywhere?I get the newsletter, is there somewhere else I need to look ? Thanks
Keith Law: I shoot for Thursdays at 1 pm when I’m not traveling. I can tell you now next week I’ll be on the road.

Bloop: So. How’d the mythical Robert look?
Keith Law: He went 0 for 5 with two punches. The universe is mocking me.

Jo-Nathan: How high would Jasson Dominguez go in the draft this year if eligible?
Keith Law: Not that high. The two pools aren’t very comparable to begin with, given the players’ ages, but what I’ve heard on Dominguez doesn’t make him a top ten talent or anything.

Adam Trask: FYI, Cuban Baseball Federation is not run by the Cuban government. It is run by the Cuban Olympic Committee, which answers to the International Olympic Committee.
Keith Law: “Answers to” is not the same thing. Who funds the Federation? Not the IOC, right?

Anya: Michigan State basketball rape story in the NY Times today. OMFG, what is wrong with colleges when it comes to sports…
Keith Law: College sport fandom is like a cult. Last June, Oregon State abused one of its pitchers, Kevin Abel, to win the CWS, throwing him 129 pitches the day after he’d thrown a 23-pitch relief outing. He was 19, so even the 129 was over the PitchSmart limit for his age, and that limit assumes regular rest before the start. I called them out at the time, and Pat Casey, the OSU coach, said people criticizing him were just haters (that we “didn’t want them to win,” I believe, as if I give two shits who wins the CWS). Abel has been hurt much of the spring and now has to have Tommy John surgery. I pointed this out yesterday … and was immediately set upon by OSU fans who are suddenly experts in pitching injuries in mechanics. They believe exactly what they want, and only what they want, rather than consider that the team or its players or its coaches might be less than perfect.
Keith Law: Also, Casey did the same to Drew Rasmussen, running him out for full outings just a year off TJ, enough that Rasmussen flunked his physical with the Rays and required a second TJ less than two years after his first one.

Chuck: Cedric Mullins a AAA guy, AAAA guy or MLB guy?
Keith Law: Bench/up-and-down guy.

Ben: When does Milb present to us a remotely friendly site and app? This is ridiculous!
Keith Law: MILB turning its app from a useful one to a completely useless one is the most bizarre thing I’ve ever seen on that platform. Apps are supposed to improve, and add features, right?

E: You have mentioned a weaker draft class numerous times this year. Is there a chance no draftees crack the top 20 prospects next year?
Keith Law: Rutschman maybe, otherwise no.

Jake L.: Are you a believer in the Forbes Team values? The Rays, to no surprise, scoff that the team is now worth 1.01 Billion dollars
Keith Law: They’re educated estimates, but hardly precise. It’s very difficult to properly value an asset that not only isn’t publicly traded but the sale of which is effectively regulated by a third party.

Brian Godish: Once the season starts, how do you divide up your time between MLB, the minors, and draft prep? I picture your office with 6 screens this time of year.
Keith Law: Watching draft guys on TV is mostly useless to me. The angles are all wrong.

Guest: Can you confirm Luis Robert is real now?
Keith Law: I can confirm this.

scott: Jake Mangum looks like he will finish as the all time hits leader in the SEC. Does he have any professional future?
Keith Law: Professional yes, major-league no.

Jeff: It seems Oregon State lies about the nature of Abel’s injury. Shouldn’t there be some repercussions from the NCAA?
Keith Law: Ahahahahahahahahah oh my god that’s hilarious. No, they’ll probably suspend a different player for accepting a free sip of water.

Jerry: Last night’s performance out of the bullpen for James notwithstanding, if the back end of the Astros rotation isn’t doing the job by summer would James and/or Whitley bring enough to the table to keep the good times rolling or would it be time to start shopping Tucker and others for a big time SP?
Keith Law: Why not both? Try Whitley and James while exploring the market for Tucker.

Big Fan: Is ‘Insert Player’ from ‘Insert Favorite Team’ going to be awesome this year based on ‘Insert Small Sample Stat’?
Keith Law: I’m trying to skip most of those questions this week, but yeah, that’s about the size of it. Nobody knows which great/terrible start is real.

Jeff: Does it make any sense that Abel would feel a twinge in his elbow while rehabbing after being shut down for an alleged bad back?
Keith Law: When I was with the Jays, Jeff Niemann was a potential first-rounder at Rice (heh) and missed some starts his junior year with what was reported as a groin injury. One of my colleagues asked in a group discussion about potential picks if that was the groin that’s attached to the elbow ligament.

Esteban: Have you heard old town road by lil nas x? Thots?
Keith Law: I hate that fucking song already.

Bobby D: It the recent past it seems that you have been reading more. Were/are your motivations tied to your writing or more along the line of personal enjoyment?
Keith Law: I’m still reading at my usual pace. Just started The Inheritance of Loss yesterday.

Eric: Some people on Blue Jays twitter are starting to get excited about Patrick Murphy…justified? Any insights you can share?
Keith Law: It’s two starts.

Brian Godish: Maybe Madrigal played and you just couldn’t see him…
Keith Law: On the contrary, I could look him right in the eyes.

nelson: Talk about the black hole
Keith Law: I’m just trying to figure out how we can fire all the anti-vaxxers right past its event horizon.

Mike: If the over/under was set at “1” on Big League Regulars among McKinney, Jansen, Teoscar, Gurriel, Tellez and Drury, would you take the over?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jay: At what point do the draft picks become unattached to free agents? That’s the day I think we see deals for Kimbrel & Keuchel
Keith Law: After the draft.

Guest: Keith, any idea if ESPN+ will get folder into Disney+ whenever it comes out?
Keith Law: I was just discussing this with someone last night – I don’t know, and my gut is that they’ll be separate services, but how great would it be if they were combined or even bundled like Spotify/Hulu? (UPDATE: Disney announced this afternoon that there will indeed be some sort of bundle.)

Chris: Not even looking at the statline, Amed Rosario looks like a different player this year. Turning on balls inside while displaying better patience. Exciting.
Keith Law: Cautiously optimistic on that one. Hitting balls harder, not getting them quite enough into the air. At some point after Brooklyn his swing got a little flatter.

Mark: I was watching a show on T.V the other day called ,”The best Thing I ever Ate.” Curious what as to what your answer would be.
Keith Law: A longtime reader & correspondent (who seems to have vanished from the internet completely, so I’m a bit worried about her) asked me that years ago, and my answer was the meatballs with tomato sauce and lardo at Boston’s Coppa. I no longer eat beef, so that dish will have to remain a memory, but I could also offer the duck carnitas at Cosme in NYC, the piedras y oro dessert at Xochi in Houston, the Wiseguy pizza at Phoenix’s Pizzeria Bianco, the grilled carrots with jalapeño chimichurri and apricot puree at Juniper and Ivy … okay, this might get long…

Keith: What insights (if any) did seeing Luis Robert in person give you?
Keith Law: Swing is better than I expected. At bats were not. My goodness he is a large man.

Chris: I got to watch a lot of Kyle Isbel and Nathan Eaton play last year in the Pioneer league and came away really impressed by both. Any thoughts on either of those guys? Any reason for optimism?
Keith Law: First two games with Isbel weren’t promising. I’ll see him a ton more this spring, though.

Nick: For the Phils, would signing Keuchel and moving Pivetta to the pen make more sense than just signing Kimbrel? (Not that either scenario is likely.)
Keith Law: Yes but I think they still view Pivetta as a long-term starter. I think he’s too vulnerable to LHB.

Steve (nyc): You have mentioned how it is like work when being in large social settings. I have similar experience and can’t get spouse to understand why I don’t always want to entertain. How do you handle this?
Keith Law: To what extent does your spouse understand why you feel this way? Explaining your anxiety or discomfort may help. Even asking them to read something that gets into what anxiety is and why we feel it could help them understand.

Big Time Timmy Jim: You’ve maintained that you never questioned Luis Severino’s stuff, only whether or not he can hold up longterm given the delivery and body. In two consecutive years, his stuff worn down in the 2nd half, and how with real shoulder/arm issues to start 2019. While I know you don’t advocate for any pitchers to be injured (and actively root for them to succeed, even if it means you’re ‘wrong’), is there just a small part of you that wants to say “This is what I was talking about, guys.”?
Keith Law: Yes, it occurs to me – I took this question, which some readers might interpret as prima facie evidence that I’m gloating – but i find it nauseates me to think about taking pride or pleasure in a player’s injury, if that makes sense. I’ve said this before – that baseball player who fails is a grown-up kid who always dreamed of being a major leaguer. I get physically uncomfortable when fans mock, heckle, or just boo opposing players who fail. I get that most fans do this stuff or think it’s fine or even funny, but that’s still a human on the receiving end of the invective.

Jerry: Carlos Correa has been pretty adamant that he won’t sign an extension. Good for him. I think every player should make as much as they can. Assuming he walks do the Astros have any SS-3B types in the minors who project as better than average MLBers by the time he’s a FA?
Keith Law: I hear Betts is the same way. Right now, no, I don’t think they do.

Mike : Why do you keep saying Kelenic was the Mets top prospect when your list is the only one that has him ahead of Gimenez
Keith Law: Because … it’s … my … list.

Newt: I don’t know if he’ll ever hit consistently, but man, watching Byron Buxton break the sound barrier rounding second en route to his triple last night was jaw-dropping.
Keith Law: And at the plate, he looks like he did for most of 2017, too. I’m optimistic.

Lawl: Too early for top of the draft rumblings? White Sox have a chance at Vaughn?
Keith Law: They pick third so yes. If I had to guess – this is a guess, people, not based on much info at all – I’d say picks 1-2-3 were Rutschman, Witt Jr, Vaughn. Maybe then Abrams/Greene in some order, although neither did himself any favors at NHSI with 20+ directors and several GMs in attendance.

Tim Apple: Do the early struggles of the CWS make it more likely that they will call up Cease, Madrigal, et al this summer or less likely? Stadium is empty but does control outweigh draw or vice versa?
Keith Law: Cease is a no-doubt callup, isn’t he? They’re going to need more starters no matter what, just with typical attrition, and what if Reynaldo Lopez’s bad start is more than just SSS? Madrigal I doubt we see but I would be shocked if Cease isn’t up by July 1st.

Pete: How do you usually watch MLB each night? Lots of flipping between games or mostly settle in for one on each time slot?
Keith Law: Depends on the night. Lately I’ve been watching a lot of the Padres because they nearly always have someone I want to see. Some nights I just bounce around close games.

MikeM: Yankees blog River Ave Blues is closing shop. They were one of the sites that really got me into baseball analytics and led me to learn a lot as a fan. I will miss their contributions to the baseball discussion (not withstanding Mike’s job with CBS sports). More baseball blogs should be like that and less reactionary.
Keith Law: Yes, they were one of the best team-specific blogs, and, in my opinion, a good bit less prone to the sort of jingoistic fandom into which even many decent blogs fall. I’ll always have fond memories of the one commenter there who called me a racist for omitting Donavan Tate from my top 100 the winter after Tate was the #3 pick in the draft.

Ben: How can we tell when a hot start is the 1% of times when it is real and not the 99% when it is a SSS? We hear so much about “swing tweaks” and trying out new pitches now that it seems like there is a report of something “different” on every player with a hot start.
Keith Law: I do not believe we can. We can guess, but that’s all we’re doing.

Chris P: This is the time guys generally pick up helium before the draft, so are there any guys you’ve been hearing about so far that are making the jump?
Keith Law: I wrote about Hunter Bishop a few weeks ago. Josh Wolf is a prep RHP in Texas who has surged. Josh Mears in Seattle is another one. Blake Walston in NC.

BigDaddeh: What are your thoughts on how much rest from baseball preteen kids should have. Not talking showcase circuit or max effort radar gun efforts, but fall ball after spring and summer and things like that
Keith Law: Pitchers should take at least 100 days off from throwing. I know that’s a bit of an arbitrary number but it seems in line with most of the recommendations I’ve heard from people I know with teams and from sources like PitchSmart.

Fan boy : Favorite minor league atmosphere within driving distance of your home?
Keith Law: Reading.

romorr: Adley is it at 1.1, right? No getting cute with underslot than overslot?
Keith Law: Why not? If you could sign Vaughn, save $1MM, and go grab JJ Goss for $3 million at your second pick, wouldn’t you do that?

Daniel: Hi Keith. Thank you for offering your fans this forum. What do you think is the reason that Forrest Whitley is not with the major league club? Is this more to give him innings due to the lack of them last season or a manipulation of the service time rule? I would think he is a better option than Peacock at this point.
Keith Law: Barely pitched last year at all.

Tony Montana: Is Jordyn Adams one of the highest ceiling players in the minors that is currently outside the top 100?
Keith Law: That’s reasonable.

Draft pick compensation: HEY! Don’t blame me for Keuchel/Kimbrel not signing. These guys think they’re getting $18M+ for 4+ years.
Keith Law: I would believe it hurts Kimbrel more than it hurts Keuchel.

JR: How would you handle Smith/Alonso if you were the Mets GM? Seems like two really good candidates at same position, but given Alonso is getting bulk of playing time a trade of Smith would be selling low on him?
Keith Law: I think Smith is trade bait. Even if Alonso slumps, he’s going to hold that job for a while – they’re not going to switch the guys if Alonso has a bad week. Helps that Smith looks good physically and has been solid in his minimal playing time.

Jake L.: When you are on a scouting trip, do you prefer to eat food at local restaurants or do actually eat at fast food chains once in awhile?
Keith Law: Local whenever I can. I do eat at Panera from time to time because I can eat something healthful while working too.

Esteban: Do you get more groupies (fans) from espn, food or writing/ reading books good? I like picturing fans waiting outside your hotel for autographs
Keith Law: I do not have groupies. I’m not sure I’d want groupies, but regardless, I do not have them. As for fans, I’ve been honored by how many of you have come to my various book signings.

Erik: thoughts on Minor League Baseball restricting usage of video from the games? Just saw that Baseball America took down all the in-game videos from their site.
Keith Law: Terrible. Waiting to hear if this is permanent and, if so, what they’re thinking.

MATT DAMON: Have you been able to see Cal Stevenson yet?
Keith Law: A tenth-round senior sign? Did I miss something?

Ben: Re Buxton, watching Billy Hamilton score from second on a fly out (is it scored as a sac fly??) was incredible.
Keith Law: Yep, that’s a sac fly.

Rod: When is the next mock draft coming?
Keith Law: You have never seen a mock from me before May 1st.

MATT DAMON: What happened to Logan Warmoth? He was ranked pretty high in your 2017 draft lift
Keith Law: Contact quality has been totally absent with wood. I’m floored – I thought his swing was good and was told his exit velocities in college were no worse than solid.

Brodie Van Jump on the Bandwagon: I am pleasantly surprised at Pete Alonso’s overall hitting– approach, hitting to all fields, etc. I recall you weren’t super high on him… I know it’s a small sample size, but he’s been pretty impressive on the hitting side, right? I think a 25 HR/90 RBI season and hiting .280+ may not be out of the question, especially if the Mets offense keeps on hitting. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I could see .280/25, and I could see .250-.260/30-35. I think I could see the latter more easily.

Matthew: I have recently entered the world of publicly published articles — I have to ask, how do you block out the unkind portion of a legitimate criticism, especially if the critique is a fair one?
Keith Law: Ignore. It invalidates the entire commentary for me.

Chris: Where does Hayden Simpson rank on your “WTF First Round Picks” list? The Cubs had some whiffs around that time period, but that was an all-timer, wasn’t it?
Keith Law: I believe that was one of only two times since I started this job that someone took a player in the actual first round I hadn’t heard of (although someone reminded me I did know who Simpson was, I had just totally dismissed him from my mind). The other was Kevin Matthews, 33rd overall in 2011 by Texas; he never got out of low-A with the Rangers, and had just one pro outing above A-ball at all, pitching in indy ball in 2018.

romorr: I’ve heard this here and there, but any truth to Trout falling in the draft because of Billy Rowell?
Keith Law: That was one variable among many, yes.

Charlie Indio Montoyo: Keith. I really respect your opinion alot. I just want to know why you think Thornton has below average command and control. He’s had a a 1.7 BB/9 in his entire minor league career (spanning nearly 450 IP), and he’s been able to locate his pitches really well in his first 2 starts (granted small sample size obviously).
Keith Law: Walk rate is not command.

Jake L.: How are you doing today after dunking on “the stick to baseball guy ” in regards to the Schilling thing? I don’t know if I ever laughed so much
Keith Law: I mean, my internal reaction to anyone who says “stick to baseball” is “go fuck yourself,” but rare is anyone so stupid as to non-ironically say “stick to baseball” when I’m actually commenting on baseball.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you all so much for reading. I do not think I’ll get to chat next week, and depending on travel/weather, the next chat will probably be April 24th. Enjoy your weekends, and if you’re at any of the Texas Tech/WVU games this weekend, I should be there for the one Alek Manoah pitches.

Keith Law: Cause only when I try am I happier to see. Klawchat.

Tyler Y.: All SSS caveats apply, but the A’s have already gotten one uncharacteristically good turn out of a mediocre (at best) rotation. After last years chicken salad out of chicken sh#$ performance, is there something Oakland is doing to coax a better performance out of the Brett Anderson’s and Aaron Brooks’ of the world than anyone could possibly expect? Or is this all just defense and ballpark (in which case, maybe they are smart to invest less in SP).
Keith Law: No, I think it’s ballpark, defense, and good luck. Their ERA through that one turn is far better than their peripherals might imply.

Jay: I suppose I understand why some people are upset at the upcoming 3 batter minimum rule, but, count me amongst the fans of the rule. Commercial breaks in the middle of an inning are the worst. And, even really bad RPs with terrible splits have a 35% chance of a 1-2-3 inning
Keith Law: I thought a 2 batter minimum would do it. I agree that mid-inning breaks are the worst actual pace-of-play problem (as opposed to overall game length, which I think is what many people mean when tey say “pace of play”).

CH: Do you think Keuchel and Kimbrel end up sitting out this year? Seems more likely by the day.
Keith Law: No, and I don’t think it’s becoming any more likely, either.

Boilermaker: Keith, thanks for the chats. If mlb goes to robot umps for balls and strikes, what does that do to the value of catchers who are good pitch framers? Assuming it nullifies that value, do you think teams are considering that when they negotiate catcher contracts now?
Keith Law: It will nullify that value – as it should – but I don’t think teams are thinking that far in advance.

Jay: My memory is not what it was, but I remember Hunter Greene being a top SS prospect at the time of the draft. Is pitching that scarce when it’s more beneficial to accept near certain injury and a lost year of development than it is to develop a prospect as a position player that can be in the MLB quicker and more than likely have a longer career?
Keith Law: No, he was a great defender at short with some power but a below-average hit tool. He was and still is a much better prospect on the mound.

Greg: If you ran the Red Sox what kind offer would you make to Mookie?
Keith Law: I’d start at Trout and expect him to want far more. He’s worth it, but then again, I think Trout’s deal undervalued him a little bit too.

Jerry: Could the flurry of extensions and the adding of Tatis, Jr, Jimenez, etc to opening day rosters be a bargaining move by the owners to try and fend off a work stoppage?
Keith Law: I do not believe so. I don’t see how that would work anyway, since there are, what, a minimum of 750 MLBPA members?
Keith Law: (I’m blanking on whether all 40-man players are in the union or if they need a day of service.)

Marshall MN: Hi Keith, my mom was recently diagnosed with an incurable terminal illness (I am not fishing for sympathy), and it is insane how quickly the naturopath quacks come out of the woodwork to offer remedies to solve this. It is always done with “best intentions” of course, but it is getting very hard to keep my temper in check with these fools.
Keith Law: I’m very sorry to hear that news, Marshall, but please, lose your temper on those quacks. Naturopathy is woo. It’s just bullshit to separate desperate or gullible people from their money.

Jerry: Has your opinion on Kyle Tucker changed any? I believe the underlying numbers that show he was unlucky in his brief time in the majors in 2019. At the same time I’ve read that some in the organization are souring on his long term outlook. I feel like it would be a panic move and big mistake to move him.
Keith Law: My opinion hasn’t changed, but if they trade him for someone who helps them right now, I wouldn’t necessarily call it a mistake. It all depends on the return – maybe two years of a good major league starter now would justify trading six years of Tucker.

Darren: Hi Keith, so Eric Lauer was the opening day starter for the Padres, which was unexpected. Good young pitcher, but what do you see as his upside?
Keith Law: Fourth starter. Maybe a little below-average over the course of his career. But a starter.

Jerry: What’s your impression of Laureano? Was he projected to be this good? Could the Astros have gotten more for him?
Keith Law: Ramon? 2 WAR player last year. That’s probably about right. I said good things about him after his AFL in 2016, but didn’t put him on my top 100. The Astros’ mistake was altering his swing, which led to the bad 2017 and loss of his value.

John: Thoughts/reactions to the news that Hunter Greene is getting Tommy John surgery?
Keith Law: Disappointed, but hardly surprised – of the three major prospects I can think of who had similar elbow issues last year, two have had TJ (him and Dunning), and Sixto is heading to extended rather than to double-A. I don’t think this is a huge hit for Greene other than pushing his timetable back a year. The funny (peculiar) part is that, as so often happens with guys right before TJ, he apparently looked fantastic in Arizona. Puk had that last year too and then blew out.

Jerry: Nick Tanielu. Possible MLB contributor or just Spring Training noise?
Keith Law: I don’t even look at spring training stats so I don’t know what the noise would be. I don’t think he’s even a bench bat.

Steve: Twitter sometimes recommends tweets liked by who I follow, and frequently recommends tweets that you like. I know “liking” a tweet does not necessarily mean endorsement, but have noticed you like several pro-abortion tweets of late, and was curious how you use science to inform your stance on that issue. Can a mother abort her fetus at 4 weeks, 8 weeks, or 32 weeks? Where do you draw the line (if anywhere)?
Keith Law: I’m not “pro-abortion.” I am pro-choice, and I oppose any intrusion of religion into our secular government. As for your second question, you didn’t give me enough information to answer. If that fetus at 32 weeks is nonviable or going to die shortly after birth, shouldn’t that be a decision between the pregnant woman and her doctor, with no input from you or me?

Scott: Red Sox fan from Delaware…..heading to Frawley Stadium this weekend to see Salem…anyone on their roster that would be of interest?
Keith Law: You can cross-check the Salem roster against my Red Sox prospect ranking: https://klaw.me/2GtRDcK

Evan: True / False: Michael Conforto will end the year as the most valuable player on the Mets? Pitchers included.
Keith Law: I’ll go with true. Always been a huge fan of his bat.

J.P.: Thoughts on the Acuna extension?
Keith Law: Feels like a bad deal for him. I understand any player that age taking the security of the deal, but even considering his lack of leverage in 2019-20, if he becomes the player we all expect him to become, this will be a huge windfall for Liberty Media.

Kyle: KeBryan Hayes is on a June call-up path or does he need a full season remaining in the minors?
Keith Law: June sounds good to me. Don’t think he needs a full season or close to it.

Tadd: If Andujar does need the season-ending shoulder surgery, is there somebody on your Yankees radar who would be an obvious replacement?
Keith Law: Internally? I don’t think so. I guess Estrada could slide over there but he’s not what they would want.

Juwan: If Robles develops 25 hr a year power, is he a superstar?
Keith Law: Yes but nobody I spoke to about him this winter thought he’d end up with that kind of power.

Deke: How hard is it for you to overcome initial evaluations on a player that don’t pan out? I was right with you on Hosmer as a prospect, and to this day I find myself willing it to still happen, but you’ve pretty clearly turned on that.
Keith Law: There’s no ‘right’ time to change an evaluation, but I do think we have to start rethinking probabilities of projections even into a player’s first season in the majors … that 40% chance of a player becoming a star might only be 20-25% a year later. And then…

Marc: Lucas Giolito had some success with a shortened arm motion in his first start. Can these type of adjustments work long term? Any injury concerns?
Keith Law: …you get Giolito working with a shorter but clean arm stroke that had him locating his fastball to the corners along with what might be the best changeup I’ve seen him throw. Prospects are still humans; they don’t develop on our schedule.

W&M: Be glad you didn’t go to college at William and Mary. Terrible record on mental health and punishing students who open up about mental health and anxiety issues. If I could do it over, I never would have gone.
Keith Law: Is that true? Any public record on this? They’re a state school, which makes this even more disappointing.

grant : Do you have any opinion on what education a college kid should get if their trying to go into baseball? Trying to decide if i should study something like stats or computer science
Keith Law: That combination sounds like a perfect one to me.

Kevin W: Has ESPN ever asked you to tone down your twitter feed (and I’m so glad you don’t)?
Keith Law: Sort of. I won’t.

Mac: Is Nick Lodolo going to pitch himself into the top 10 picks?
Keith Law: Possible but I would not take him there.

Patrick: How about my team’s start? Look like division winners! Absolutely I can project their finish from this excellent first half-week!
But seriously Keith, as April snows hit today, I ask–how much can/do you take weather into account when checking out collegiate players? Do you consciously avoid cold-weather scouting trips?
Keith Law: I do – I’d rather see a pitcher on a day with at least moderate weather. I did see Logan Gilbert last spring on a 42 degree day in Newark, which got me a fair look at him but was miserable for everyone involved, myself included.

Dr. Bob: If a team was bad at something last year and they still are through 5 games can any conclusions be drawn or are we still just in SSS-verse?
Keith Law: If the personnel hasn’t changed, then you can carry forward the conclusion you drew from last year.

Dalton: Time worry about the Braves youth on the mound?
Keith Law: It’s April 2nd.

Luke: Does Pete Alonso’s start mean anything to you or too much of a SSS to mean anything?
Keith Law: It’s April 2nd. Sam-ple size doo doo do do do do…

Nelson: Ive been trying to read Booker and Pulitzer winning fiction, but I find most are just not very fun reads. Its like Oscars for best picture, maybe great works of fiction, but not the most fan friendly. Any recent winners that your recommend in a page-turner type of way?
Keith Law: All the Light We Cannot See, The Sense of an Ending, The Underground Railroad, Lincoln in the Bardo, The Sellout, The Orphan Master’s Son.

Dr. Bob: The transactions made by Toronto the past couple of weeks raises the question: What is Toronto’s plan?
Keith Law: I’m not quite sure, to be honest.

Nick: I know its super super super early and I think he only has 1 walk, but it looks like Amed Rosario’s is really starting to turn a corner from a plate discipline perspective. In his game winning hit yesterday, he laid off 2 nasty breaking balls before ripping a 2-0 fast ball for a hit. No doubt last year he would have swung at least one of those sliders. If Amed reaches his potential and learns to get on base more, he adds some seriously needed athleticism to that roster and can make the Mets have a pretty darn scary lineup.
Keith Law: Although I generally agree with you, he needs to try to elevate the ball more – when I saw him in March, he was still coming down at the ball at the point of contact enough that I think he’s going to hit too many groundballs.

Jeff: How do you normally finish off a sous vide bath? Smoking hot grill? Sear on cast iron?
Keith Law: Cast iron/carbon steel.

Michael Conforto: I haven’t seen much downside for Mayor Pete. I don’t even love his “religious left” platform, but the justification is thoughtful and admirable. What have you seen?
Keith Law: I’d agree. I admit that I find his overall intelligence extremely appealing, and might be overreacting to the lack of intelligence of the current occupant. I would like to see Elizabeth Warren getting at least the same kind of adulation for her own, similar practice of putting policy proposals first.

Danny: You see the Mets Columbia roster? Szapucki, Woods-Richardson, Mauricio, Newton, Vientos!! (side note: what are they going to do playing-time wise? Newton get OF reps?)
Keith Law: I would guess Newton slides to 2b. Mauricio needs to play most of the time at SS. Continued positive reports on him from minor league ST.

Sarah: If Vlad Guerrero Jr is up in two weeks does he hit 30 HR? 300 BA?
Keith Law: I’d guess 20-25 HR, .300ish AVG, OBP in the mid-.300s.

Carl: Re: your linked-to deadspin piece on ballparks pricing out fans. Do you think this is detrimental to the long-term health of the sport, even if they are maximizing profits now?
Keith Law: I do. You can absolutely alienate too much of your fan base like that, and if those people stop watching or buying merch or paying for MLB.tv, the sport is in trouble.

Amy: Is anyone left to be a FA this fall? These extensions are fascinating, and probably too comforting for the owners. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I don’t think any extension so far has looked like a bad one for the owners. Some have looked fair, others too team-friendly.

Sage: Trying to teach myself guitar. Struggling with chord change speed. Any recs?
Keith Law: Repetitions, and make sure you’re using the optimal fingering to make those changes. Most chords can be played in 3+ ways, so you can set up the next chord change with how you finger the current one.

Patrick: Oh, sure, just as I’m about to ask a music question, I see you dropped March’s new playlist. See you later, going down that rabbit hole…
Do you ever catch live shows? Anxiety not make it comfortable? Or prefer time w/ the family and ‘consuming’ music at your own convenience?
Keith Law: Haven’t been to a show in a year-plus for a variety of reasons. Just met someone recently who shares a lot of my tastes in music and we’ve talked about hitting shows together once my draft travel slows down. She insists I’m going to learn to like Josh Ritter, though…

Debo: Thoughts on Joe Biden giving kisses?
Keith Law: I was done with him as a candidate before then. I guess I’m extra done now. And shame on Alyssa Milano for failing to back up Ms. Flores, instead talking about what a nice guy Biden is. Just because a man didn’t harass or assault YOU doesn’t mean he never did it to anyone else.

MikeM: Im hoping Mayor Pete will use this platform to get some visibility and turn it into a senate seat the next time one is up in Indiana. The Senate is really important and Democrats seem to overlook everything but the presidency.
Keith Law: Yes, and yes, although I too find it hard to think about anything but the presidency when the President is lying about everything on Twitter (no, we did not send Puerto Rico $91 billion in hurricane relief, we sent a paltry $1.5 billion, and he once again implied it’s not part of the US, which it is).

Kevin W: I used to believe this country would never elect somebody named Barack Obama (especially so soon after 9/11) so it gives me hope most people can get past a gay man.
Keith Law: Fun intellectual exercise: Would American voters sooner elect a gay white man or any woman? I think the former.

Ben: Good recs re the Man Booker/Pulitzer list, but is Sense of an Ending a page-turner, or just short? It’s so bleak!
Keith Law: His prose is gorgeous. I tore through it. The movie was solid too although it can’t pack the same punch as the revelation at the end of the book.

Jonathan: Anything to David Hess, other than a really good start last night?
Keith Law: No, I think he ends up a long man or 5th/6th starter.

Alan: How is Carter Stewart faring these days? Do you view him as a top-10 pick this year?
Keith Law: I saw him last month and wrote it up here: https://klaw.me/2Hk6dF1
Keith Law: BTW I’ll be at the NHSI tournament this week, along with Kiley from Fangraphs and some of the BA guys. Top prospects there include Riley Greene, CJ Abrams, Rece Hinds, Brennan Malone, Kendall Williams, and Jack Leiter.

MikeM: How worried should the Yankees be about Hicks’ back? Its been 2 weeks since his 2nd cortizone shot and he still hasnt started baseball activities.
Keith Law: I’m worried. And I have long been a huge Hicks fan.

Amy: Does the Andujar injury make the Yankees seriously regret not being in on Manny?
Keith Law: You could never have foreseen this injury, so in some sense it would be wrong to say that’s the reason they should regret not trying harder to sign Machado. The better reason is that Manny was an upgrade over Andujar in the first place, and they chose not to get better when they had the financial wherewithal to do so. The cost of doing nothing at third base just doubled.

Kretin: Do you use any programs such as Rocksmith for practicing guitar? Highly recommend if you haven’t checked it out.
Keith Law: Thank you. I just practice by playing/learning new songs (and then playing snippets on Instagram, thank you all for humoring me).

Jay: Speaking of mlb.tv, can we PLEASE do away with blackouts? I’m annoyed I can’t watch my local team without paying for cable
Keith Law: Shame on MLB if they don’t negotiate an end to blackouts for that product. Just air the games and send some of the payments to the local RSNs.

jimmyb40: Keith, no question here. Just want to say that I appreciate all of your writing, at Paste, ESPN, and here. I don’t interact much on chats, I don’t interact on Twitter, and I’ve never met you at a game, but I still appreciate everything you do. I hope the bad apples aren’t getting to you too much, and there are us quiet types that want to be respectful and move conversations forward.
Keith Law: Thank you. I appreciate the kind words.

Ted: Is it too soon to conclude that Oakland completely blew it by drafting Beck and Murray with top 10 picks in the past 2 drafts?
Keith Law: Too soon on Beck but he looks terrible. Murray, I just don’t know what they knew at the time, but I know our draft experts at ESPN didn’t think Murray was going to be a first rounder, much less a potential #1 overall pick. (me, not a football fan: “Oh, like Dan Wilkinson? Or Ki-Jana Carter?”)

Juwan: For posterity, mark me down as a Nats supporter that doesn’t blame Harper one bit for not accepting the Nationals’ two low ball offers, doesn’t begrudge the man one bit for signing the best contract he was offered irrespective of location and how it would impact his former club, and a guy that won’t boo him even once for anything pertaining to his free agency decision.
Keith Law: I would like to think most Nats fans feel this way, but that we just hear from the most vocal ones.

PD: Has anyone tried to determine the risk premium charge that players pay to get the long term security from an extension? Yes, players want to get paid for what they’re expected to produce but there’s value to the player in knowing you’ll get paid long term versus the uncertainty going year to year.
Keith Law: I haven’t seen any research on this (feel free to send me a link if any of you have seen one, even in an academic paper). I completely agree on your second point. If that’s my kid, I’d say negotiate for every last dollar, but plan to sign.

Wayne: How concerned are you about Soroka’s shoulder? And, do you think we see Ian Anderson this year?
Keith Law: Very concerned about Soroka’s shoulder since it’s his second bout of soreness and I’d raised concerns about his arm swing prior to any injuries. For most teams I’d say no on Anderson, but we saw Wright and Touki and Wilson last year before I expected, so maybe for Atlanta yes.

Dr. Bob: Manny Machado 222/263/222 28 OPS+. See? Guys get comfortable after they sign big contracts. (Or was it, He doesn’t play hard? I forget.)
Keith Law: I will not out the writer, but someone posted a troll tweet after Harper had a bad game in the opener, and how Atlanta got so much more out of Matt Joyce, who signed for nothing. Not only was it unfunny trolling, but it was spiteful towards Harper. The fact that he signed that enormous deal should not color our opinion of his value or production.

Nick: re: Marshall MN’s comment and naturopathy. My mom was diagnosed with cancer over the summer (thankfully she is in remission now) and a few people suggested certain naturopath treatments and I straight up told them it was bullshit and that the only way she’ll get any better is by listening to her doctors. It shut them up, at least around me.
Keith Law: Good for you. Fire all those mountebanks into the sun.

Rob: Any hope for Alford as a regular?
Keith Law: He has the physical tools to be a regular, but neither the performance nor the history of durability to suggest he will become one.

Jason: I’m not looking forward to the Democratic primary at all. I can’t imagine a time in history when uniting behind a strong candidate who can win the election matters more, but yet you can already see through early donation amounts and social media people uniting behind Sanders, Warren, and Mayor Pete. As much as we might like their core policies, they aren’t going to resonate with most of the country. Am I crazy to think that a Biden or Klobuchar, while flawed certainly, is the way to go here?
Keith Law: I know too little about Klobuchar to say, but I am out on Biden – the harassment issues didn’t even come into play, as I don’t think Biden’s policy history is promising, and to be quite honest, I’d like someone who won’t turn 80 during his term, you know?

Craig: Obviously Knebel’s upcoming TJ surgery puts a dent in the Brewers bullpen. Other than Kimbrel (who they are wisely unwilling to overpay for) is there anyone they should be targeting for additional bullpen help?
Keith Law: I think/hope they’ll give Zack Brown relief innings as they did Burnes and Woodruff last year.
Keith Law: Maybe look for their Ryan Pressly, too.
Keith Law: (A guy they think they can tweak to improve, someone we would look at now and say is fine, but not the high-leverage solution you seek.)

JR: Pretty cool that Alonso and Tatis, Jr got their first MLB HRs on the same day. Hope they both have solid seasons and make for an exciting NL ROY race.
Keith Law: I wish Tatis’s had been earlier – actually even Alonso’s was after 10 pm, I think, so I’m guessing a lot of fans didn’t see them. I was out by the time Tatis homered. MLB needs to get those clips out on social early and often to push those kids in front of fans.

Jonathan: How is that not age-ism against Biden? Bernie is nearly the same age no?
Keith Law: When did I ever say I wanted Bernie? Age-related cognitive decline typically begins in a person’s 70s. Being younger than that would be a BFOQ.

Gritty: As a Nat’s fan, I’m going to boo Bryce Harper because he’s a phillie, not because he chased the $$$
Keith Law: Well that’s fair.

Brian: Posed this question to my Dad the other day and he basically laughed in my face – Schoop at $6 million to man 2B until Hiura is ready or Moustakas at $10 million to do the same? I still feel like Schoop is the better choice.
Keith Law: Same. Think you’ll get a lot more on defense.

Jco, San Fran: How long does Farhan need to rebuild the big league club and secondly, the system?
Keith Law: I think this one is a 4-5 year rebuild. System is still very thin above short-season ball.

ck: How do teams find out about DFA or waived players. Is there a group email or website or something? Also, how do you reach a player? Does a team have an index with phone numbers of all players and their agents or what? Thanks for all your content. Sorry if this was a dumb question…
Keith Law: When I was with Toronto we’d get multiple PDFs every day (I think three?) with transactions, including all players on the three types of waivers we had at the time. I imagine it’s a bit more streamlined now?

Rick Sanchez: When does Mize crack the majors? Do you view him as a future ace?
Keith Law: June 2020 and yes.

Matt: With the way the Indians OF situation looks, how soon does Mercado make his debut? Is his defense good enough to handle CF everyday?
Keith Law: Early this year and yes.

Chris: It must be in the West Palm Beach water, but but by pure coincidence (I hadn’t read your restaurant dish post) we tried The Leftovers and had the same exact experience with absolutely no seasoning on the fish. We also tried Captain Charlie’s (we were told that the owner of Leftovers and Food Shack used to be the head cook there) and my daughter had the same problem with her fish (mine was blackened and not noticeable). Seriously, how has this not been addressed before?
Keith Law: A slew of people recommended the Leftovers too, and the quality of the fish and other ingredients wasn’t a problem. But bah god i need some salt!

Alex: If you were a baseball fan growing up, would you say working in the industry deepens your appreciation for the sport, or does the work become too “work-like”? Asking because I am interested in getting a job in baseball, but don’t want to lose my passion for the game in the process
Keith Law: Baseball is work. I love what I do, but I have a hard time going to a game to just watch the game, and can’t get caught up in outcomes any more.

Joe: Is Adley R. major league ready now?
Keith Law: Absolutely not.

Ryan: Can Zimmer be a lock down closer, if the Royals decide to use him that way?
Keith Law: Teams typically expect closer to be able to pitch on back to back days, but I don’t think Zimmer has ever done that.

Jonathan: What was the positive development, that almost made you decide to stop writing? (If you can tell us)
Keith Law: I was saying that I felt much less of the typical desire to write because of some good and bad things that have happened recently. I don’t plan to stop writing entirely – a longtime reader emailed to ask if I was taking a team job and I said no. I don’t think I’ll ever go back at this point.

Ira: I know this seems like an oversimplification but regarding abortion shouldn’t the legality of the practice depend on the viability of the fetus? Isn’t that a fair line to determine a woman’s choice to abort?
Keith Law: Who makes that determination? And fair according to whom? I’d leave it to the woman and her doctor, and would rather see public policy focus on providing food, education, and health care to the many, many children who don’t have enough of those.

Mike: Looks like the Mets are going to staple Dom smith to the bench this year. Any chance he’s a solution for the Red Sox in a year? They don’t have any obvious in house candidates for that job next year, and moving Devers seems like quite a waste.
Keith Law: Interesting thought. Not sure I could see the Red Sox going unproven there, but I like it. I think Smith ends up with a second division team and then breaks out.

Ryan: As of right now would you rather have Mookie or Acuna?
Keith Law: Mookie but they’re both stars.

Joe: No way Pache makes it to the MLB this season right? Even if there were a spot for him I still feel there’s a year or more worth of development to go for him. Maybe he hits so much he proves me wrong, but there are fans acting like he’s taking over for Markakis in a few months
Keith Law: Ideally, no. I think the approach has to improve first, and that may require time and some struggling in AA/AAA. His defense was ready a year ago.

Harrisburg Hal: Do you have a good list of short story writers for someone who has read non-fiction exclusively for 25 years, but willing to dip his toe into fiction?
Keith Law: The best short story writer ever, in my NSHO, is F. Scott Fitzgerald. The rest are vying for second place. I read and enjoyed George Saunders’ Tenth of December. The Collected Stories of John Cheever is long but contains some absolute classics, including “The Swimmer.”

Josh: Any way Dom Smith can play OF as a regular?
Keith Law: No. They’ve tried this.

BD: Crazy for Luis Garcia to start at AA Harrisburg?
Keith Law: Crazy, no, but not ideal.

Ben: After seeing the rosters, which minor league team are you most looking forward to see thus far?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen all the rosters. Are they even all out? It’s not like I’m going to any minor league games until the Dash come here Monday anyway.

Brandon: Since someone mentioned Mercado I am wondering if you have seen Jhon Torres and have any thoughts on his long-term outlook?
Keith Law: I had notes on him in my Cards wrapup but I have not seen him in person.

Newt: Ever see a high-speed career implosion like Denise McAllister’s world-record performance on Saturday night?
Keith Law: I rather enjoyed that, since she’s just another preacher of hate. Of course, Bethany Mandel has tweeted some vile transphobic stuff and still has her gig, so (shrug).

Mike: Do you consider 70 games a small sample size? Because Jeff McNeil won’t stop raking and he’s added some pop this year as well. I think the guy’s for real
Keith Law: Yes, 70 games is a small sample size. I’m glad you think he’s for real.

40-man players: We ARE union members…
Keith Law: Yeah, I thought so, but I was second-guessing myself. So 1200+ members.

Frank: Bummed on Andujar. Likeable, hard working and seemingly bright future. From your experience, how bad is a labrum tear (throwing arm) for a third baseman?
Keith Law: I really can’t say. And I would imagine it depends on how bad the tear is, and thus how significant the surgery is. Plus he loses a year of reps in the field and at bats. But as for the surgery, I just don’t know enough to say.

Chris: My 11-year-old son plays little league, and I’ve been managing his teams for the past 4 seasons. He’s not great. But he’s not terrible. He just loves the game. On the other end of the spectrum, we have 3 players on our team that play for the local travel team. Since 3rd grade, they’ve been “conditioning” beginning in January through August, and work with former minor-league players at developing skill sets. 2 of these players are already at the point where they’re tired and just don’t want to continue. And that’s a shame. I feel like we’re doing kids a disservice by forcing them into this where they want to quit. Where’s the line? [ends Jack Morris rant]
Keith Law: That’s insane. It seems like the parents are just pushing the kids rather than letting the kids decide any of their own fates (like, do they want to play another sport too?)

Steve O: If Andujar does require season ending surgery, does that change his long term outlook? Other than losing a year of development, of course.
Keith Law: Probably not but I might reduce the probability of him becoming an average defender at any point.

Joe: Is there enough subjectivity in judging certain prospect tools to create a difference among scouts? For example, it is possible that a scout could be outstanding at judging a hit tool but not as good as another scout at judging the glove?
Keith Law: This is absolutely possible. The question is whether we could tell this about a given scout in time to make use of this knowledge.

Buck: Not trying to be snarky, honest, but can’t you just use the salt shaker on the table to get your fish flavored right?
Keith Law: No. There’s a big difference between salting food before/during cooking and doing to after. Salt draws moisture to the surface, and then some of that same moisture will be reabsorbed into the meat/fish, taking salt with it. If you salt at the table, you get salt on the surface but that’s it.

Mike: Surprised Jordan Balazovic is opening back in High-A?
Keith Law: He only pitched in low-A last year. High-A is what I expected.

Matt: I cancelled my MLB.tv account. I’m a Yankees fan. I’m supposed to shell out $150 for a “season package” when 1/3 of their games are blacked out? No thanks.
Keith Law: I can’t blame you.

Mayor Pete: Warren will be in her 70’s by the next election. Do you think she should also be disqualified?
Keith Law: Nine years younger than Biden. And I never said “disqualified.” Is this what’s next? Bad enough I get strawman-toting baseball trolls.

Riley: Edwin Diaz or Josh Hader best RP in baseball?
Keith Law: Why are those my only choices? Blake Treinen is offended.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I think I’ll be back to Thursday next week, given potential travel & some actual home games here at Frawley Stadium. Thank you all as always for all of your questions and for all of your kind words this week. Hir yw pob ymaros.