The Wild Pear Tree.

I saw a three-hour movie! It’s just not the one everyone else saw this weekend (which I’m probably not going to see, not with the laziest plot device ever at the heart of the story).

Turkish director Nuri Bilge Ceylan won the Palme d’Or at Cannes in 2014 for his 196-minute film Winter Sleep, so his follow-up film, last year’s The Wild Pear Tree, was highly anticipated and ended up competing for that same prize at the 2018 festival. The new film was also Turkey’s submission for this year’s Academy Award for Best Foreign Film, although it didn’t make the nine-title shortlist, which has only happened once for any Turkish film (Ceylan’s 2008 title Three Monkeys). The Wild Pear Tree is also long, 188 minutes, and somewhat slow, as there’s very little action of any sort, with most of the film comprising either dialogue or pensive, wide shots of landscape, but there is a novelesque story at the movie’s heart and a strong conclusion that at least provides an adequate payoff for your time investment.

The Wild Pear Tree follows Sinan, who has recently graduated from college and faces an uncertain economic future in modern Turkey, where the best options for recent graduates include serving in the army or joining the police so you can beat up leftist protesters for fun. Sinan plans to take the national exam to qualify to become a teacher, but his real passion is writing, and he is trying to self-publish a work he describes without a sense of irony as a “quirky auto-fiction metanovel.” The film follows him through his return from college to his hometown, where his father has bankrupted the family with his gambling addiction, his grandfather is starting to lose his faculties, and his mother and sister are both stuck in a situation not of their own making. Yet despite the obvious conflict he’s facing with his father, Sinan also comes to realize that these relationships are not binary functions, and that he may relate more to and inherit more from his father than he’d like to admit – while his mother’s love and empathy are more superficial than he understands.

Ceylan’s script here – reportedly pared down from what would have been more like a four-hour running time, God help us – touches on many existential issues that are generally universal but would appear to apply specifically to modern Turkey, a secular nation by its Constitution that has faced rising despotism from its elected leader, Recep Tayyin Erdogan. Turkey’s economy actually began contracting last year, deepening an ongoing malaise that the film reflects in Sinan’s limited employment prospects and general disaffection with the lack of options for him in jobs, in marriage prospects (he refers to himself as a “peasant”), and in geography. He runs into a popular local author and, under the guise of trying to solicit the man’s advice, ends up browbeating him with his own pretentious, juvenile ideas on art and literature, eventually labeling the author a sellout. The scene that turns increasingly contentious and only is resolved in one of the film’s sudden dream sequences (or visions), right after the author, to this point very even-keeled, loses his temper and unloads on Sinan.

The most compelling scene in the movie, a lengthy conversation involving Sinan and two local imams, one conservative and one liberal/progressive, that ranges from the question of God’s (Allah’s) existence to how strictly man should interpret the Koran to the imams’ seeming willingness to pray away the sins and materialism of their quotidian lives. It’s a sort of living thinkpiece, one where Sinan probably has the philosophical upper hand but wields his words clumsily, while the two imams are more eloquent but engage in specious claims about religious texts or morality in the material world, which I assume was in turn some sort of satire or indictment of the active forces in Turkish politics and culture under Erdogan.

This is a long movie that feels longer, but Ceylan at least sticks the landing by returning to the father/son dynamic that opened the movie and recurs multiple times as Sinan leaves and returns from his village and fights with his father over the latter’s profligate ways. The concluding scene, by which point Sinan’s parents have separated, was reminiscent of the speech the father (Michael Stuhlbarg) gave in Call Me By Your Name in its power and its ability to wrap up so much of what the movie as a whole was trying to say. There’s some sleight of hand in the final few shots, although Ceylan foreshadows that by using the same visual trick multiple times in the movie, and the very last image will stay with you for a while … if you make it that far.

Klawchat 5/2/19.

My ranking of the top 50 prospects for this year’s draft is up now for ESPN+ subscribers, as is a new scouting notebook covering six prep prospects I saw in April, five of whom are on the top 50.

Keith Law: Sometimes you break a finger on the upper hand. Klawchat.

Randal Grichuk: Tim Anderson is on an insane streak right now, but even though he has made some improvements, a lot of it is BABIP related. Moncada has cut his K-rate by 10% and has been awesome, but also has a high BABIP (although, with his contact profile and high exit velocity/speed, he could honestly be a .350 BABIP guy like Baez/Judge). Which of the two do you think is gonna end the season as better offensively, and do you agree that Moncada’s BABIP doesn’t need to regress *that* much due to his contact profile?
Keith Law: I’d rather bet on Anderson’s long term future.

Ray: I’m a big fan of Samin Nosrat’s show and cookbook , Salt Fat Acid Heat. Curious if you’ve seen/read either and what you thought?
Keith Law: I own the book but haven’t read it yet.

Bob: I hear a lot of complaining about the MLB ball wildly inflating AAA HR rates. If the point of bringing the MLB ball to AAA was to help players make the transition to MLB (I think that’s true?), then is this actually a problem or is this the policy working the way it was supposed to?
Keith Law: The bigger problem is that the MLB ball sucks. The answer to the problem was to un-juice the MLB ball, not bring the bad ball to AAA.

David: Enjoy your game lists. A long time ago you recommended Metro, a tile-laying game that has a similar format as many on your current top 100. Just wondering what happened to it – did you stop playing it because of the flood of new games, is it out of print, or did others just surpass it in your mind? Metro has long been one of our favorites, and it’s faster to play and simpler to set up and score than many of the more current games on the list, which is a plus for us. We just picked up Carcassonne finally (thanks for the link to the one-day sale!) and the game mechanics seem pretty similar so far, so I’m sure we’ll enjoy that one too.
Keith Law: Haven’t played it in years mostly because there are many better games in that vein – Carcassonne of course, but also Cacao, Karuba.

Kyle KS: I’ll eat some crow today on my Dexter Fowler question from a few weeks ago. He’s been a force since then and it has been fun watching him and Martinez get playing time and be all smiles in the outfield. You were right that they should keep giving him playing time. So no question, just a thanks for your work!
Keith Law: It’s still so damn early – everyone wants to react to the tiny samples of a few weeks of games but we have no real way to distinguish signal from noise in this little data.

Bob: Tirso Ornelas is off to a solid start, but not showing much HR power in the CAL. I’ve heard his called a potential middle of the order hitter. Does he have 25 HR/yr pop when he matures or a bit less than that?
Keith Law: He’s 19 in high-A. I don’t think he’s a future 30 HR guy, but please stop stat-scouting teenagers playing that far above their age level.

addoeh: Looks like you were able to see Quinn Priester on one of the few recent nice days in the Chicago area. Do you have any more thoughts on him beyond what you wrote in the top 50 draft piece or was there a draft prospect blog post I missed?
Keith Law: I have a blog post covering him, Barco, Callihan, Nunez, Siani, and Newell that should go up today.

Bob: Daniel Lynch has been extremely hitable in Wilmington. Have you seen him at all? I’m wondering to what extent that’s bad defense, bad luck or perhaps a sign that his stuff is a bit short for a mid-rotation projection.
Keith Law: I saw him. He’s fine.
Keith Law: Again, don’t scout the stat line.

James: Gallen for the Marlins and VanMeter for the Reds have big changes in their stats this year compared to last, are either of them good enough to be a regular going forward?
Keith Law: Gallen’s a back-end starter, still. Van Meter isn’t a shortstop, and obviously not a 50 HR guy, but he can hit and has come into more power even going back into last year, enough that I think he’s a clear big leaguer, maybe not with a set position but someone who can play semi-regularly while moving around.

Mike Greer: Is Devers slow’ish start mostly a product of not barreling the ball & poor launch angle (1.1% Barrel% | 5.6% LA) or is it a product of the skills not being as good as we thought? I know you’re bullish on him, but I wanted to see if your early season assessment has changed at all.
Keith Law: No, my early season assessment has not changed at all.

Frank V: Jesse Winker’s early season power numbers look great, regardless of his low AVG and poor BAIBP luck – do you think we are looking at a star in the making?
Keith Law: Yes, he was on my breakout list for that reason – that I think the power he showed last year was real.

Este: Thots on The hype surrounding Vladdy already. I saw video in the streets of d.r. of people cheering on his routine putouts. I love it
Keith Law: I love it too. I’d love it more if he’d been treated fairly, and if MLB and the Jays hadn’t been promoting him while also suppressing his salary.

Mike: Keith, love the chats. I know you can’t draft for need, but the Mets really have no OF prospects in full season ball. Would you recommend they draft an OF in first 2 rounds or still draft BPA?
Keith Law: Always, always, always draft best player available.
Keith Law: That said, don’t be shocked if they end up with a college bat at 12.

Patrick: Did you do Endgame? If so, had you seen all the movies leading up to it?
Keith Law: Hell no. One, I won’t go sit through any three-hour movie in a theater. But two, time travel is the *laziest* plot device ever. I don’t bother with movies that insult the audience’s intelligence like that.

Joe: Keith, how would you rate Adley compared to other recent top draft prospects? Is he the best prospect since Harper?
Keith Law: No, definitely not “the best since Harper.” He’s fine, not clearly 1-1 in every draft though.

Mike G: Worried about Royce Lewis’s slow start?
Keith Law: About his start, no. About the changes to his mechanics – he’s gotten very noisy, with a hitch now and multiple triggers – yes.

Drew W: Totally SSS, but Nolan Gorman’s power sure is playing up in Peoria. Would you put it as high as 70?
Keith Law: I put it at 80 in 2018 before he was drafted.

JAS: Is it reasonable to expect the Padres to contend when most of their hitters seem allergic to taking walks? They are next to last in OB%, and it seems to be a system wide issue.
Keith Law: Their system as a whole and major-league roster in particular are all very young.

BigDaddeh: Has Gosuke Katoh taken the leap or is this SSS noise?
Keith Law: SSS. He slugged .335 last year.

Dr. Bob: Hey there, Keith. Cardinals, Rays, and Twins are making your preseason predictions looking pretty good right now.
Keith Law: It’s nice to get something right occasionally.

Elizabeth Warren 2020: How depressing is it that we (myself included) feel comfortable writing off Mayor Pete in the primary, largely over a weak position on vaccines, but at the same time would take Richard Nixon’s head in a jar over Trump in the general election? Really shows how far apart the two parties are.
Keith Law: Are those even the same question, though? The former is Buttigieg vs the field of candidates; the latter is Buttigieg vs Trump. Of course I’d take the field in the former and Mayor Pete in the latter. (He did clarify that he opposes nonmedical exemptions.)

Robert: How high are you on Xavier Edwards? I know it’s still early but batting 400 with strong BB skills first year out of HS in the cold MW league is impressive. Even with the lack of power can he be a 55? See any Dee Gordon to his game?
Keith Law: I’m a fan, but he’s nothing like Dee Gordon.

Robert: Would you cut bait on Kinsler and just start Urias if you’re the Padres?
Keith Law: Yes.

Moe Mentum: Nick Pivetta. Should he convert to the bullpen, or can he figure it out to be a mid-rotation starter?
Keith Law: I’ve thought he would go to the pen for a while because he doesn’t have a viable pitch for lefties.

Meeeeeeeeeee: Do you think hitters are getting used to the higher velocity of the past decade, and (if so) could that possibly lead to teams giving more chances to pitchers who rely on guile and pitching knowledge (like a Jamie Moyer type, for example)?
Keith Law: Teams seem to be more concerned with guys who have strong secondary stuff now – Matt Allan is the top prep arm this year because he has the best breaking ball of that group – or who have clean deliveries and athleticism so that they can go into a player development system that works to develop new or refine existing pitches.

KLAU: Where does Shea Langeliers go at this point? Still a 1st rounder?
Keith Law: yes. Somewhere in the 15-30 range.

Meeeeeeeeeee: What is the political atmosphere like in Delaware regarding Biden? Are people excited, or do they have a ‘been there/done that’ attitude about him running?
Keith Law: He’s less popular locally than you might think.

Sage: Is Jon Lester best FA signing by Cubs EVER ?
Keith Law: Dawson in 1987 is tough to beat, but that’s not a fair comparison.

Greg: Hey Keith, Austin Riley’s K rate went from 29% last year to 21% in 100+ PAs this year. Is that enough sample size to believe in, or still small sample size?
Keith Law: Take a guess.

Gene: I miss Jarred Kelenic and I didn’t even like the trade at the time
Keith Law: He’s had a funny/weird season too. He started out 2 for 25 in his first seven games, with 7 BB and 9 K. Since then he’s hit in every game (17) and is at .456/.513/.868 in that stretch.

steve: Keith: Very impressive year plus for Red sox prospect Jarren Duran. Profile seems to be slap hitter with speed/ What are your thoughts here. Also does CJ Chatham have a big league future in him?
Keith Law: Duran is legit, chance to be a regular. Can really hit. Chatham probably a UT.

Jeff: To be clear, you think there is such a thing as a 9 year old “trans” child?
Keith Law: What I think is immaterial. Nine-year-old children can be transgender; that is just a fact. That’s not to say that all children who exhibit gender nonconforming behavior are trans, but a child nine or even younger can identify as a different gender than the one they were assigned at birth. Denying this fact will just do more harm to these children, who already experience sky-high rates of suicide and violence.

Tom: Who’s the best reliever only draft prospect this year, and could they be ready for October in the majors?
Keith Law: I have yet to hear of any relief prospect in this draft who is good enough to get to the majors this year.

Eric: Do you think Pete Alonso is an All-Star caliber player?
Keith Law: I think he’ll make the team this year, almost certainly.

David: Should the Braves bench Ender and play Camargo everyday? Ender hasn’t been good at all offensively and with Acuna shouldn’t he be in CF anyway?
Keith Law: Yes, I’ve been arguing that for a while now.

Steve: With the top 4 probably gone, who should the Tigers target?
Keith Law: I’ll do a mock for Monday but I don’t know that the top 4 will be gone either.

Eric: What is the ceiling for Simeon-Woods ?
Keith Law: #2 starter? Heard very good things back to last summer, have not seen him myself yet.

Zach: Is there an adjusted BABIP stat that accounts for hard-hit and line drive %?
Keith Law: Several, but I don’t think any of them has a high enough predictive value to rely upon.

Chris: Can Chavis play 2nd long term? Or is he strictly a corner infielder?
Keith Law: I’d be surprised if he could play anywhere but first base as a regular. He might hit enough to be a regular at 1b though.

Eric: At what age would starting books with actual stories and chapters be appropriate?
Keith Law: I can only speak to my daughter’s experience but I was reading her simple books like the original Mary Poppins stories and Winnie-the-Pooh when she was 4. There’s so much value in the interaction itself – the time you’re spending with your child as you read to them – that I wouldn’t worry if your kid isn’t grasping every word. It’s just so valuable to be with them one-on-one like that.

Zac: What does Derek Hill have to hit to be a glove first center fielder?
Keith Law: If he keeps doing what he’s done in a tiny sample this year – which is brand new for him, so I’m not saying I buy into it – then he’s going to be at least a quality fourth outfielder for a long time.
Keith Law: He’s that good a defender and runner. He’s also barely getting on base right now, even with much improved power, so maybe it’s nothing.

John: I read an article today saying the Dodgers already won the Puig-Kemp trade because they got back Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I liked the trade more for them at the time, since they acquired two real prospects for guys whose contracts were ending soon anyway.

Beans Mahones: Corbin Carroll with some helium. Anything on fellow WA HS OF Joshua Mears?
Keith Law: Mears maybe 30-60 range in the draft. Someone I considered for the top 50 but just left off.

Raani: You would cease contact with your parents if they hadn’t vaccinated you when you were young? Dude, are you mentally ill?
Keith Law: Technically, yes, I am, as I have been diagnosed with anxiety disorder, but since you’re using “mentally ill” as an insult, kindly go fuck yourself.

Ryan: any good HS prospects in Minneapolis this year?
Keith Law: Not on my top 50 but Drew Gilbert and Will Frisch at Stillwater HS, both committed to Oregon State, are both prospects even though they might end up at school (to be overused like Abel and Rasmussen?).

Jim: Keith, I know it’s SSS and all that, but at what point do you sit someone who’s not hitting and not looking particularly good (I’m looking at you, Brian Dozier & Ryan Zimmerman)? After all, while it’s early, it’s not too early to dig too deep a hole for a team to get out of. Thanks, and welcome back!
Keith Law: Feel like Dozier is someone you’d give up on more than Zimmerman.

Chris P: When you say “non-prospect” that obviously means a guy isn’t going to become a star, but what would you call a guy that wont make your lists but likely can stay in the big leagues for 5-7 years?
Keith Law: Sometimes I would just say “big leaguer,” or extra guy or reserve. I think some readers would view any of those as denigrating the player, but it’s really not – it takes a lot of ability to get to that point.

Stubbs: Julio Rodriguez (SEA-OF) is a Guy?
Keith Law: He’s a prospect – but he’s hurt now, unfortunately.

alex: Who has the bigger upside, DL Hall or Grayson Rodriguez? I think Hall because he is LH, but GRod seems to be doing well and is a big dude. Thanks
Keith Law: Rodriguez has more size and velocity but I’d bet on Hall having the better career.

Troy: What is your favorite protein to cook with?
Keith Law: Duck.

Chris P: I try to remind myself that nothing really matters until the end of June…but I’m definitely enjoying this Buxton comeback so far
Keith Law: He was also pretty good the last five months of 2017, before injuries ruined his 2018. I’m more inclined to buy into a good April when there is preceding performance to support it.

Michael: How much confidence do you have in ranking a player in the top 50 that you’ve never seen but have heard great things about from others you trust?
Keith Law: I do enough work on those players that I feel pretty confident in the 50 guys I listed. I’ve seen 25 of the 50 on my list so far this spring, not counting anyone I saw last summer.

Snowy: Is McKay’s ceiling an ace? Or more of a #2?
Keith Law: More of a #2 due to lack of a clear plus pitch.

Troy: Does Dakota Hudson rate out as a 1 or 2 starter long term?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s a starter long term.

Tyson: Keith, who is the most talented high schooler outside of Harper you have ever evaluated?
Keith Law: Of course we didn’t know at the time but the accurate answer would be Mike Trout.

Alex: Is Yordan Alvarez a major leaguer given his defense liabilities?
Keith Law: Definitely a major leaguer.

Peter Brand: Thoughts on Caster Semenya ruling?
Keith Law: Gross and scientificially inaccurate. There is no such thing as a “male hormone;” all humans produce testosterone, and calling that a male hormone is just ignorant. Gross because this feels like white women mad they couldn’t beat the black woman so they got a court to rule her some kind of freak.

Chris P: What’s the deal with Quantrill now? I know his 2018 was a disaster, so has something changed?
Keith Law: Yeah, his velocity is mostly back. He was 93-96 last night, which is much closer to his 2016 self. I’m intrigued.

Bynd : What is your impression of Beyond Meat?
Keith Law: I’ve cooked their burgers a few times and they’re great. My biggest complaint is how wasteful the packaging is.

Luke: No question, just wanted to say thank you for all the work you do. My wife’s son and I greatly enjoy it.
Keith Law: You’re quite welcome. I’m glad many of you enjoy it.

John: I’m seeing Cal play next week at USF, do you see Darren Baker as an early round prospect?
Keith Law: No. He can run, not sure there’s much else. Their first baseman is pretty good though…

Troy: When is it a trend instead of a SSS? June1?
Keith Law: There is no concrete date after which all sample sizes are automagically non-small. As the sample sizes grow, our confidence in the signal should gradually increase.

Frank: if you had to chose 1, Waters or Pache? (luckily the braves dont have to make this decision)
Keith Law: Pache. Elite defender with power.

Michael: For those confused on small sample size, Betts went from .239 to .290 in six games. It’s so early.
Keith Law: Perfect example.

Tadd: Josh Bell is…..very good? That boy has been CRUSHING baseballs this year.
Keith Law: He’s always had the ability, but for whatever reason he didn’t seem to try to drive the ball even in AA and certainly not in the majors. The Pirates signaled a whole new hitting approach for this year; maybe he’s the big beneficiary.

Sam: Thoughts on CHVRCHES saying they refuse to work with Marshmello again after he worked with Chris Brown and Tyga?
Keith Law: Good for them.

Jeff: Is there a Dominic Smith solution? He’s been raking when getting AB’s but you can’t really blame NYM for playing Alonso. Has to be a trade in the near future right?
Keith Law: Yep. Can’t bench Alonso, can’t let Smith rot on the vine. Best solution is a trade, once they decide what they most need.

PD: Will we see another draft pick go straight to the majors again?
Keith Law: I can’t say never, but it’s not bloody likely.

Jay: Do you think Cole Tucker has the ability to stick with the Pirates all season or will one of the Seinfeldian Kevin’s push him back to the minors due to service time considerations?
Keith Law: Wouldn’t surprise me if he ended the year as their shortstop or second baseman – his arm has been inconsistent for me post-surgery – but I don’t think they’re gaming his service time.

Frank: Tapia looks like an exciting player in Colorado…i wish they’d release Desmond but its nice to see him sit 3-4 days a week.
Keith Law: Tapia is unconventional but he’s got crazy hand-eye and I think he’ll hit as long as he’s given playing time.

Victoria: Luis Urias showcasing some previously unheard of power. Any thoughts for this to continue this year / into the bigs? A mirage?
Keith Law: Small sample + crazy hitter’s environment + new juiced balls in AAA. (The baseballs are juiced, I mean. Stop that.)

Eric: (can we not refer to josh bell as “boy,” please …)
Keith Law: Sorry, I completely missed that. You are correct.

Uli Jon: It seems you get a lot of response on your philosophy on hiring domestic abusers. I imagine there’s some scenario where you might allow it – the perpetrator is genuinely contrite, accepts their punishment, is open to exploring underlying issues that led them there, engage personally, financially, and in perpetuity with organizations and victims. As far as examples of this…wait, still checking.
Keith Law: Right – can we have one such case of a player expressing actual remorse and acting upon it in a meaningful way first? Trea Turner handled the revelation of his past homophobic tweets extremely well, so the community as a whole forgave him and moved past it. Josh Hader didn’t, and plenty of us still think he got away with something. In the case of (more serious) DV suspensions, every single player has talked his way around what he actually did.

Marco: We have nearly 2 full baseball seasons, including playoffs and World Series, until the next Presidential election. Do you agree that the breathless media coverage of every schmoe that announces their candidacy is bordering on lunacy?
Keith Law: Yes. I’d go further, that I think the ridiculous coverage and the desperate need to rank all these candidates, including the various slapdicks throwing in their hats when we’ve never heard of them before, subverts any semblance of a rational process.

Danny: Is Andrew Dalquist a Yankee target at 30/38 (he’s the only SoCal prep arm on the list)
Keith Law: I haven’t heard them at all with him or any prep arms for them right
now.

Grover: Any chance you think we might see May or Gonsolin called up for LAD this fall?
Keith Law: Doubtful. Again, I don’t like saying never, but it doesn’t make a ton of sense.

Moose: White Sox seem allergic to prep players with 1st round picks. Would they consider Witt if Adley & Vaughn go 1 and 2?
Keith Law: I don’t think Witt gets to them right now, but I don’t think it’s an “allergy” but a preference. They have a good system with a young core in the majors and a few more prospects near the majors, so it makes some sense to focus on guys who’ll move quickly.

Devon: What’s the story with Jamie Westbrook in the DBacks system? He’s hitting well (granted, its in the PCL) but is he a prospect?
Keith Law: I don’t think he is.

Corey: Boston’s slow start has resulted from many things, bullpen not really being one of them despite the media’s off-season worry beads. And there appears to be quite a bit of reliever depth in the system. Can we stick a pin in the Boston needs to sign Kimbrel thing ? Not going to happen given the actual cost after tax penalties. I don’t think the Sox need anything other than just to play better (and a 2b staying healthy)
Keith Law: Agreed. I feel like the bullpen is not near the list of their biggest problems, and also something they could fix more easily.

Danny: Do you think Luke Voit’s success is sustainable and did prospect analysts “miss” on him?
Keith Law: Lindsey Adler has a great piece on him in the Athletic (in the Athletic or on the Athletic?) that talks about the changes in his entire approach since the Yankees acquired him. I think much of it is sustainable because there’s a foundation of tangible changes there.

Dick Hickock & Perry Smith: Have yu ever read In Cold Blood? Thoughts?
Keith Law: I did. Capote falling in love with one of the murderers is problematic, to be kind, but it’s a hell of a read.

Minny: Alex Kirilloff was just activated today at AA. Does his injury to start the season remove any hope (if there ever was any) of seeing him in September? Or does the Twins competitive team and full OF make it a moot point anyway?
Keith Law: Yeah it’ll take an injury to find a spot for him, I think.

Jerry: Astros team offensive numbers looking pretty good. Except for hitting with RISP. Reason for concern or simply wait for regression to the mean?
Keith Law: Batting with RISP is just batting. There’s no such thing as a hitter who only hits without RISP.

Adam D.: I get what you’re saying about time travel being lazy as a plot device. And certainly if you aren’t invested in the characters and stories they’ve built up, Endgame doesn’t make much sense to go see. That said, for those of us who are invested, I did not feel insulted by the use of time travel at all. It’s handled far better than just about any movie besides maybe Looper, and the payoffs are tremendous.
Keith Law: Meh. If you guys like it, great, but my daughter watched Infinity War last week and I couldn’t get through a half hour. I also kind of have an issue with the whole characters throwing each other into buildings, off buildings, into walls, etc. as a means of conflict resolution.

Mark: Chris Sale, there’s obviously something wrong with his arm/shoulder right? You would think the Sox have done countless tests on his arm since last year, especially before signing him to an extension so what the heck is going on?
Keith Law: He doesn’t look healthy at all. I can’t speak to what the Red Sox did before the extension, but he looks (from his stuff and command) like someone who is pitching hurt.

MacDaddy: Thoughts on the possibility of George Valera finishing the year as a top 25 prospect?
Keith Law: No.

Jeff: Thanks for the chats/tweets/content. Are there any college games you are planning to scout in the near future?
Keith Law: I’m planning to hit the ACC tournament and I want to go see Vanderbilt before then. That’s probably it – it’s writing/phone calls/texting time for me, with the draft 32 days away (cue @infinite_scream).

Nate: Why do you spend so much time arguing with random people on Twitter? Wouldnt that time be better spent on your family or on your marriage or some other worthwhile endeavor?
Keith Law: The irony of someone coming to my free chat, which I do on my own time for no direct compensation, to ask this question is really quite something.

Randy: Just started getting into coffee recently, what kind of coffee maker would you recommend starting off?
Keith Law: I got a Hario V60 pour-over setup, which uses paper cone filters, for making myself a cup of coffee. It’s like $25, doesn’t require a fancy grinder, and aside from the fact that it takes about five minutes to make a cup it’s easy and convenient.

Hi: Despite you being Luis Robert’s Kryptonite, what are your thoughts on him? Has his performance warranted a bump up on top prospect lists?
Keith Law: I wrote him up last month, but I don’t move players up my lists after three weeks in the minors, sorry.

Joe: Keith, Blake Rutherford has been bruuuutal so far. Safe to write him off?
Keith Law: Just set him to the side. I really hate the idea of calling a player a bust, or assuming he’ll never turn into anything. Look at Voit, for example. Or, less extreme, Max Kepler, who is having his first good (maybe very good?) MLB season right now (SSS) *ten years* after he signed as an amateur. Guys change, they grow and mature on their timetables, and so they can always surprise us.

Josh: What are your thoughts on how Alex Verdugo has looked so far? Seems even better than I anticipated, especially holding his own against lefties.
Keith Law: He’d earned the opportunity on the field, at least. I feel better about him hitting .300+ going forward than about him slugging .600+.

Troy: I know you’ve mentioned autism is far more likely in older fathers. As a 41 year old having one last child should I be concerned?
Keith Law: Not sure you can do anything about it. Just hope for the best!

Danny: You saw Deivi’s “debut” in AA (he had a spot start in Trenton last year)? How is his changeup coming along and do you think he stays in the rotation?
Keith Law: I’ll write up the start soon, but his changeup was above average for me.

Questioning: What’s the difference between transgender and intersex? I know that the brain can be wired differently to not match genitalia, or there are both or no genitalia. But I’m confused on the specifics and want to understanding.
Keith Law: The Intersex Society of North America has a great answer to this Intersex encompasses a lot of conditions, but the best lay explanation I can think of is that they are born neither clearly male nor clearly female, which includes their genitalia. Many of these theocratic, GOP-pushed laws punishing trans people will also adversely affect intersex people, which is an added layer of injustice.

Mike: What do you think about how the Cubs have/are handling the Addison Russell situation?
Also, when does Kris Bryant start hitting again?
Keith Law: They should have non-tendered Russell in December. That was their biggest mistake.

AGirlHasNoName: If the Cubs were going to extend Baez, what would the numbers look like? Would you try to do it if you were the Cubs?
Keith Law: I would definitely try to extend him. Maybe offer him 6 years $125 million? Covers two arb years, four FA years.

Matthew: SSS of course but has Alec Hansen found a home in the pen? If he keeps the walks down, could he close?
Keith Law: Not sure about closing, but he’s back on the path to the majors. I saw him here a few weeks ago – his delivery is simpler now, just very functional, not great but it helps him throw strikes.

Jerry: RE: Troy. My children were born when I was 42 and 45. Both turned out fine. My nephew was born when my BIL was 31. He’s on the spectrum. Like Keith said, you just hope for the best.
Keith Law: So many of these things are risk factors but far from definitive. I think I mentioned this issue with respect to Robert Deniro, who was 55 when his son, who has autism, was born. Big difference there.

Tim : Heard you were one of the most sought after bachelors in Delaware.
Keith Law: The girls, the girls they love me…
Keith Law: (That’s Heavy D. I know it was recycled into another song more recently, but please, let’s stick with the classics.)

Drew: I just finished the Whiskey Robber book. I have no idea how I wasn’t aware of him, what an incredible story. Great recommendation.
Keith Law: Glad you liked it! One of my five favorite nonfiction books ever. Delightfully bonkers.

Chuck: If I could search all prospect rankings for keywords, would a phrase similar to “great athlete who just needs to make better contact to be a 5 tool stud” have the worst performance relative to ranking?
Keith Law: Agreed. I had this chat with a scout the other day – we can talk tools all we want but you have to hit.

Greg: Do you have any thoughts on the chickenpox vaccine? My kids have all their usual vaccinations, but I do wonder if they even need a chickenpox vaccine. Overkill, or long overdue?
Keith Law: Long overdue and utterly necessary. Varicella can kill adults.

Brett: Do you watch Jeopardy? Have been watching the run James is on? Guy is impressive. Love how he uses his math skills to increase his odds.
Keith Law: I don’t but it’s a great story and apparently he’s a hardcore baseball fan (and stats nerd, a term I use with great endearment).

Justin R: Ever think of doing a juice cleanse?
Keith Law: I don’t believe in pseudoscience, sorry.

Justin R: I know you don’t care about either, but if you’re at a bar and the NHL and NBA playoffs are on, which one are you ignoring less?
Keith Law: More likely to watch hockey.

Ed: You don’t strike me as an overweight lover !!
Keith Law: No, but I am currently in the house.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions and patience with my erratic schedule the last month-plus. It’ll calm down for the foreseeable future as I focus more on draft writing and less on traveling to see players. (I realized I’m also still trying to see Corbin Carroll, as well as Bleday and the ACC guys, then I’m done.) I should be back for a fresh chat next Thursday, and the mock (projected) first round is scheduled to go up Monday for ESPN+ subscribers. Thank you again!

The Overstory.

Richard Powers’ The Overstory won the 2019 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction in what feels like a crowded year of critical favorites, with Tommy Orange’s There There taking home one of the honorable mentions. Powers has woven a complex tapestry of narratives and seemingly disconnected characters around a central story of environmental degradation and injustice, a novel that feels extremely important but that suffers from the breadth of his vision and ambiguous characterization.

Trees are at the heart of The Overstory, both in terms of the characters’ interactions with trees and humanity’s degradation of the planet’s forests and climate. Powers rages against the human machine throughout the book, decrying everything from our failure to appreciate the beauty and diversity of nature to the capitalist impulse to plunder our forests for profits and rationalize it away. The characters themselves seem to lose hope for the planet as the novel progresses, and Powers himself is certainly no optimist, but there’s at least a strain of possibility throughout the story that gives us an inkling that we might still have time to save ourselves if we stop denying the truth and act to reverse the damage we’ve done.

Powers’ thematic ambition spreads to a diversity of central characters that seems to be beyond his ultimate reach. He has nine core characters in The Overstory, and I’m not sure I could name an author writing today who’s up to the task of managing that breadth of personae across 500 pages; Powers is game, but the characters bleed into each other far too much to keep them distinct or explain their varying purposes on the pages. Nick and Douglas, two middle-aged white men with personal tragedies in their back stories, become harder to distinguish, especially as their stories on the pages eventually connected, intertwine, and separate; the same is true to a lesser degree with Mimi and Olivia, who are a bit more sharply drawn but still are too similar in personality and speech to keep them completely separate in the reader’s mind.

An overstory is either the layer of foliage in a forest canopy or the trees that give the canopy its foliage, so Powers is playing with words here, as he’s layered the story of the trees, and how they have been indispensable to life on earth, on top of this story of nine characters who start the novel with no connections to each other but several of whom find themselves connected and even relying on each other in emotional symbiosis. It’s a clever conceit for a novel, but to make the understory work, you have to make at least some of those characters compelling and/or sympathetic. Powers doesn’t do that, at least not enough for me; I think one of the nine characters, the researcher and would-be professor Patricia, who may have autism, was well-drawn enough to stick with me, and even that was as much a function of the injustice the world of the novel does to her – laced with misogyny and the human tendency to reject new ideas – as it was to the depiction of her character.

There’s one common theme among the characters in the novel that serves as a functional metaphor for the environmental cause he’s espousing, that of death and rebirth. The novel opens with prologue chapters for each for the characters, and nearly all of them experience the death of a loved one, often a pivotal figure like a parent (at least two fathers die in this section, so steel yourself), as part of their back stories. The idea that new life comes from death recurs throughout the novel, including a discussion of how much one dead tree lying on the forest floor feeds the next generation of life in the forest, from fungi to insects to new plants; Powers extends the metaphor so that many of the characters in the novel find the paths of their lives determined or at least directed by the deaths that altered their childhoods.

There is an actual core plot in The Overstory, as five of the characters unite at a logging protest and end up splitting off to form an eco-terrorist cell, which has some of the consequences you’d expect and a few you wouldn’t – but Powers doesn’t resolve this story in a remotely satisfactory way, and the connections to the other four characters, notably the invalid lawyer Ray, are tenuous at best. There are many great ideas in this book, but it never comes together into a coherent narrative.

Next up: Iain Banks’ The Player of Games, part of his Culture universe of novels, currently on sale for $2.99 for the Kindle.

Stick to baseball, 4/27/19.

No new ESPN+ content this past week, since the NFL draft sort of took center stage, but I’ll have a fresh draft ranking this upcoming week and my first projection for the MLB draft shortly after, either later this week or at the start of the next. Klawchat will also return this week.

My latest board game review for Paste covers Solenia from Pearl Games, a light strategy title that offers more depth of strategy than most gateway games do without sacrificing playability or making turns too long. I also recently reviewed the app version of the game Castles of Burgundy for Ars Technica.

You may also enjoy more of my words by signing up for my free email newsletter, which I send out when the muse speaks to me.

And now, the links…

Stick to baseball, 4/20/19.

Nothing new for ESPN+ subscribers this week, although I’ll have another draft blog post next week, followed by a draft top 50 the week after (I got bumped by some other draft). My last ESPN+ post covered likely first rounders Alek Manoah and Josh Jung, with Manoah looking like a top ten pick when I saw him.

I reviewed the app version of Castles of Burgundy, one of my favorite high strategy games, for Ars Technica. MENSA also gave its Select tag to five games from 2019 and I’ve reviewed two already, Gizmos and Architects of the West Kingdom.

I rarely appear on podcasts due to time constraints, but when Kyle Bandujo asked if I’d come on his show, Trouble with the Script, to review the worst baseball movie I’ve ever seen, I couldn’t possibly decline. I think we properly eviscerated Trouble with the Curve.

My free email newsletter is becoming dangerously close to a weekly thing now. I must be mellowing in my old age.

And now, the links…

The Inheritance of Loss.

Kiran Desai won the Booker Prize in 2006 for her novel The Inheritance Of Loss, a slow-burning tragedy set in the Darjeeling district of northeastern India, near the border with Bangladesh, that covers distinctions of class, gender, and language, but never establishes a single compelling or central character anywhere in the novel’s 350-odd pages. It’s an oddly dispassionate novel given how much the passions of individual characters factor in the story.

The most central character in the novel is Sai, the suddenly orphaned daughter of an Indian engineer who is killed while in Moscow training for the Soviet space program; she arrives, without warning, at the home of the judge, a curmudgeon who has distanced himself from the rest of his family, living on his estate with the man known only as the cook. The cook’s son, Biju, has gone to America to make his fortune, but instead works his way through a series of entry-level jobs in various restaurants in New York City that rely on undocumented labor to run their kitchens.

These stories play out against the background of the rise of a Gurkha self-determination movement in the district that continues today. The Gurkhas, Indian natives who speak Nepali, have been agitating for their own state within India for over a century, and a more militant group, the ominously-named Gurkha National Liberation Front (styled after numerous insurgent groups, nearly always with communist leanings, around the developing world), sprang up in 1986, leading to a lengthy general strike depicted in the novel. Sai falls in love with her tutor, Gyan, who joins the GNLF and who makes a decision that affects their budding if likely forbidden romance as well as the lives of the judge, the cook, and other family members who have lived in privilege in a region where the ethnic majority has been subjugated.

There’s some beautiful imagery in the book and some recurring metaphors that would probably be worthy of a deeper dive – vapors appear in various forms from the first page onward – if I cared one iota about any of these characters. I’ve generally enjoyed fiction from South Asia, whether translated or originally written in English, probably because the setting is so different to me and because that part of the world has an ethnic and cultural diversity that lends itself well to complex stories, with many writers with south Asian backgrounds incorporating myths or magical realism into their works. Desai’s style is dry in just about every way; the prose is uninteresting, the characters unmemorable and unlikable. The judge’s back story, for example, explains his grim, misanthropic exterior, but in a way that will make you loathe him for his cruelty. There’s a parallel between his upbringing and what the cook hopes for Biju, certainly, where Biju chooses family and emotion over the sort of materialistic ambition that defined the judge’s life. Perhaps I would have felt more invested had Biju’s story resolved a little sooner, but Desai has us watch his debasement a little too long before anything of consequence happens in his story, and the novel ends before his story gets any sort of answer.

I still can’t decide what Desai was trying to depict in The Inheritance of Loss or what aspect of life she wanted to explore, which could be my failure as a reader rather than hers as a writer – but whatever it was, I didn’t get it, and that’s a pretty rare experience for me at this point in my life. I may not always like novels I read, but I’m rarely this flummoxed. That puts this towards the bottom of the two dozen Booker winners I’ve read so far, at least.

Next up: I’ve just started Richard Powers’ The Overstory, which just won this year’s Pulitzer Prize for Fiction.

The Sea.

John Banville won the Booker Prize in 2005 for his novel The Sea, a slim, introspective novel on death and grief, written from the perspective of a middle-aged thesaurus. It’s a demanding read that brims with ideas and contains many sparkling turns of phrase while simultaneously maddening with the narrator-protagonist’s bloviating style and endless desire to show off his vocabulary.

Max Harden is a retired art historian who has recently lost his wife, Anna, to some sort of aggressive cancer, after which he revisits the seaside cottage where he’d spent time one summer and had first encountered death and loss, although exactly how that occurred is saved until the very end of the novel. (The reveal is similar in tone to that of another Booker winner, the marvelous The Sense of an Ending, but the latter book does it far more effectively.) He splits his meandering narrative across three separate timelines – the end of Anna’s life; the summer he spent with another family, the Graces, at their cottage; and the present day as he’s returned to the sea and found connections to the past.

There’s a profound sense throughout Max’s story that he’s still struggling to process his own grief in the face of several shocking losses, something he seems to cover up through his own dissembling, almost in parody of the British stiff-upper-lip stereotype, the man who can look at and even identify his feelings but refuses to engage with them. The reader never gets to know Max at all; he’s the astute observer, in the style of Nick Jenkins, but lacks any discernable personality traits of his own, other than, perhaps, his ability to keep his own grief off the pages. The only real indication we get that these deaths have affected him comes near the end, when a bout of drinking leaves him with a head injury and eventually brings his adult daughter around to try to coax him to come live with her, especially as she’s afraid he may have tried to take his own life. Even then, he can barely conjure up the emotions any father should feel for his daughter, not least the reversal of roles that comes when your children have grown and begin to wish to take care of you.

I mentioned the novel’s vocabulary above; Banville may have all of these words at his immediate disposal, but just because you know a word doesn’t always mean it’s the right choice for that situation. Here’s a sampler of esoteric words I encountered in the book, most of which I didn’t know previously: rufous, immanence, minatory, eructations, aperçu, anabasis, expatiation, putative, vulgate, refulgent, vavasour, plangent. I looked up all of the words on that list (and more) that I didn’t know, or of which I was unsure, and yet have forgotten most of them in the book’s wake. Former New York Times book critic Michiko Kakutani called the book stilted, claustrophobic, and pretentious, while referring to Max as a gloomy narcissist, and even though I clearly liked the book more than she did (low bar, I know), I can’t argue with her criticisms. The occasional use of a twenty-dollar word in lieu of a ten-cent one can be fun for writer and reader, illuminating the page, signaling a shift in tone or sparking a thought in the reader’s mind, but when you’re regularly reaching for the OED, using minatory when menacing would have sufficed, you’re trying too hard.

Banville had been shortlisted for the Man Booker Prize once prior to this win, for the superior The Book of Evidence, a twisted novel in both senses of the term, one that also has a narrator writing at some remove from his emotions but does so in a way that heightens the tension rather than suffocating it. His win in 2005 was not well-received, as The Sea beat Kazuo Ishiguro’s marvelous Never Let Me Go and Zadie Smith’s On Beauty, both of which would have been better choices, as well as highly-regarded novels by Ian McEwan and Julian Barnes. It does, however, illustrate one of the criticisms of major literary awards – their tendency to reward their own, to be slow to recognize cultural and stylistic shifts, and to excessively honor works that draw heavily on or even mimic the classics of the western canon. I could live with a little pretension if the book took me on an emotional journey, but The Sea seemed to prefer to send me to the dictionary instead.

Next up: I’m just about finished with Kiran Desai’s The Inheritance of Loss, another Booker winner, after which I’ll turn to this year’s Pulitzer Prize for Fiction winner, Richard Powers’ The Overstory.

Stick to baseball, 4/13/19.

I’ve had four ESPN+ posts this week. On the draft blog, I covered last week’s NHSI tournament + Elon RHP George Kirby, then scouted West Virginia RHP Alek Manoah and Texas Tech 3b Josh Jung. I’ve heard Jung’s name pronounced a few ways, but I think it has to be either Josh Jung or Yosh Yung, for consistency’s sake. On the pro side, I looked at the most prospect-laden minor league rosters this year, and finally saw Luis Robert play against the Royals’ high-A squad. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

Over at Paste, I reviewed Architects of the West Kingdom, the newest game from Shem Phillips, who got a Spiel nomination for 2015’s Raiders of the North Sea. Architects is a busy worker-placement game, but has a few fun quirks like capturing your opponents’ meeples and selling them to the prison, or trading reputation to steal tax money or go to the black market.

And now, the links:


Klawchat 4/11/19.

My column on the most loaded minor league rosters this spring is up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: Freeze this moment a little bit longer. It’s Klawchat.

addoeh: Yes, it’s April 11, but the Cubs bullpen might just be dumpster_fire.gif
Keith Law: And they really didn’t do enough to address it this winter. I’m not necessarily on the ‘sign Kimbrel’ train – I’ve said before I have concerns that he’s on the downswing after 2018 – but he’d be a big upgrade over literally every reliever they have.

addoeh: How much is Chris Davis’s roster status and playing time an ownership directive, rather than a front office or managerial decision?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to that. I would guess his playing time will decline if/when they choose to bring other position players up or grab someone off waivers to whom they want to give a trial.

alex: I know it’s easy to make fun of Chris Davis on twitter– but there have been some articles which discusses that he has become depressed– maybe not in a clinical sense (since there is, as far as I know, he has seen a psychologist for depression)– does that make you reconsider some of the things you have tweeted? As an Os fan, I’d like to see him retire/release/buy out, but I don’t want him to decide to end things the way Mike Flanagan did.
Keith Law: I have tweeted very little about him, so no. I don’t want to appear to be exulting in his struggles. I tweeted once about the time I argued that Jim Bowden was bonkers for suggesting the Orioles should give Davis at least a six-year deal, and made one joke specifically about Davis’ stat line yesterday. Anything more would start to feel like I was attacking the person rather the contract or the production.

Kyle KS: Do you roll the dice with Jose Martinez in RFif your the Cardinals at this point? When does the better defense (although not good defense) of Fowler stop outweighing the fact that he hits with a pool noodle?
Keith Law: I’d like to give Fowler more time; it doesn’t seem like he’s hitting with a pool noodle, as you say, as he has some hard-hit balls already this year.

Swagboy: Does Zach Eflin have any realistic chance at becoming a reliable starter for a Phillies team trying to contend? Would his (realistic) best case scenario be a #4, or could he surpass that? I’d be thrilled if he had 3-3.5 win potential this year.
Keith Law: I think he could be better than a #4, yes.

Bob: You tweeted about Daniel Lynch’s velocity in his most recent start. I saw his first start and it seemed like there was a lot of contact on his secondaries and he would resort to the big fastball to get out of trouble. Do you think he can develop a 2nd (and 3rd!) pitch that can be a swing and miss weapon as he moves up?
Keith Law: That’s not at all what happened in his second start, though. His changeup was above/plus and his slider was sometimes above.

Bob: Hans Crouse is off to a great start. Any idea if there’s been improvement on broadening his repertoire or just blowing hitters away with a limited more reliever-ish arsenal. If the latter, what’s a better approach – forcing him to throw secondary pitchers at that level or pushing him up until better hitters force him to adjust?
Keith Law: I’ve heard it’s more of the same. Not that that’s bad, but I agree eventually he’ll have to adjust.

gavin: are the Padres for real?
Keith Law: They are absolutely a real major league team, which I imagine comes as a surprise to a large portion of MLB’s fan base. They’re also probably good enough to push past .500 this year if they stay healthy.

Josh C: Fangraphs wrote up Astros prospect Abraham Toro as being “divisive” within the industry. What are your thoughts on him? Regular, bench player, not even a guy?
Keith Law: Bench player. I’d have to know what Eric/Kiley meant by divisive to say more, although I trust them if they said that.

Keith: How many PAs typically indicate a stabilized view on K%s and BB%s? Any indication that Moncada has changed his approach in a meaningful way to reduce his K% and increase contact?
Keith Law: There isn’t a clear number for that. I know everyone wants a fixed answer, but that’s not how any statistical distribution works – your confidence that the number is ‘real’ will increase with sample size. I’d be surprised if this Moncada start was sustainable.

Mac: If Rutschman and Vaughn go 1-1 and 1-2 have any college hitters moved into the 1-3 discussion or would the White Sox be choosing between Witt Jr. and Abrams?
Keith Law: Witt Jr, Abrams, Greene, and possibly Bleday (there’s your college hitter) would be the top 6. Lodolo is the only pitcher I can think of who might go top ten, although that’s a reach for me.

Matt: Is this the Maikel Franco we’ve been waiting for?!
Keith Law: No, more a function of hitting 8th.

Rangers: What do you think of our new HR celebration? Inappropriate, wtf, or don’t care?
Keith Law: Don’t care. Celebrate all you want. Have fun.

KillMonger: Fried & Swanson — too early to predict whether either can sustain their success this year?
Keith Law: Too early, yes, but optimistic on both.

Santos: If Kuechel’s demands have actually come down, should the Phillies be seriously considering him? Rotation looks thin and/or volatile.
Keith Law: If I were a GM looking for pitching – Klentak qualifies – I’d be more comfortable “overpaying” for short-term production from Keuchel than Kimbrel. One, I think Keuchel is just better period. Two, I feel better about paying a starter than a reliever.

Tony Stromboli: Logan Gilbert is maintaining the velocity he showed end of last year that raised some eyebrows — at least, through 2 starts. Do you have any general thoughts about him you’d like to share?
Keith Law: I heard 93-95 from a scout who just saw him. He pitched through some minor injuries last spring that probably explained the drop from 92-95 on the Cape in 2017 to 88-92 last summer. I still ranked him as a mid-first rounder even with that velocity because I thought the command and breaking ball made him a potential league-average starter anyway.

Hank: During the off-season you praised the Jays for their hire if Charlie Montoyo. How do you feel about the hiring now that he’s come out saying he likes bunting?
Keith Law: I can still like a manager overall even if he is really stupid about one thing (and, come on, Chuck, stop fucking bunting so much).

Salzer: Do you continue to try Alex Reyes as a starter? He just seems too good to put in the bullpen.
Keith Law: Zero track record staying healthy as a starter. Not saying you don’t try it, but at some point the body is telling you something.

Aaron (Houston): KLAW, thanks for the chat. I have several relatives (parents and kids) who swear their kid (or themselves) can make it to the next level in baseball. With the chances being so small (to make it to the next level), is it not better to skip out on that dream, than try, only to fail, and possibly have no back up plan?
Keith Law: Why not make a backup plan? Not much of a life if you never try anything for fear of failure.

Grover: In the position the Giants are in should they consider trading Buster Posey?
Keith Law: Yes, but I doubt they do, given his status with the franchise.

Tom: Trent thorton – whats his ceiling?
Keith Law: It’s top-of-the-line stuff with below-average command, and I’m not sure he can ever have the command to get to starter quality.

Juwan: SSS of course, but the ball seems to be jumping off of Robles’ bat this season. He attributes the low exit velo to the elbow injury he had at the beginning of last year, it the extra base hit power is real and continues going forward, is he a future perennial all star at center, and does that make him one of the best players in baseball in a few seasons?
Keith Law: Yes to your first question and I’m not so sure about the second. I’d define “one of the best players in baseball” as, say, top 5-10 overall. I’d feel better about saying he’ll be a top 20 player in baseball. Not playing semantics games here, just trying to be clear.

James: SSS but are we sleeping on Franmil Reyes? Only hitting .143/.235/.286 but taking the batted ball data in account his expected BA is .324, expected SLG is .703, and expected WOBA is .440, all while posting great BB% & K% with a high average exit velocity.
Keith Law: Breakout candidate for me this year. Haven’t changed my view.

Jerry: I don’t know enough about it to have an informed opinion so here goes. Is there a legitimate reason to terminate the agreement between MLB and the Cuban Baseball Federation?
Keith Law: In my opinion, no. This reeks of 1) let’s undo the thing Obama did and 2) let’s pander to Cuban-American voters in Florida. The agreement solved a serious problem, and was between a private enterprise and a federation run by the Cuban government. The idea that allowing MLB to give money to an undemocratic regime is untenable while our government hands billions in foreign aid to undemocratic regimes that commit far more serious human rights violations is, to be kind, a bit inconsistent. Why does Cuba get special attention here? See 1 and 2.

Carter: Budget not an issue, where is the best place to sit for an MLB game? Right behind home plate?
Keith Law: Just get behind the net.

Samuel: We’re a little past the discussion at this point, but please tell me I’m not crazy. What Tom Izzo did during the NCAA Tournament wasn’t coaching, right? It wasn’t instructive, helpful, and encouraging. It was a person who was belittling, devaluing, and embarrassing someone he’s in charge of guiding, correct? I feel so discouraged that it seems I’m in the minority here, that we not only accept this behavior, but celebrate it.
Keith Law: I was this many days old when I learned that Tom Izzo is a college basketball coach. I think I only know who won on Monday because I follow Sean Doolittle on Twitter (which everyone should).

Brendan: What happens first? Chris Davis hit or Yu Darvish quality start?
Keith Law: I thought Darvish looked OK last night.

Mark: How long before Ryan Weathers is in Lake Elsinore? Is there anything he can realistically do to become a #1 or #2 starter type?
Keith Law: I’d bet on him spending most/all of the year in low-A and I don’t see a #2 in there unless he has a totally unexpected jump in velocity.

Kris: You pumped for GOT to return?
Keith Law: I have never watched a minute of that show. Rape and violence do not entertain me.

John Smoltz: What are your thoughts on Jesse Biddle? Do you think he can be converted into a starter?
Keith Law: I’d leave him right where he is.

Ben: Any new takeaways on M.J. Melendez or Seuly Matias from your recent look at Wilmington?
Keith Law: Blog post coming tomorrow or tonight. Started it right before this chat. I’ll cover Robert, Lynch, those guys. No Madrigal because he missed the two games I saw, supposedly with a cold.

Kretin: How is it in this day and age that people believe any of this anti-vax nonsense?
Keith Law: Dunning-Kruger syndrome.

Mark: Is Nick Margevicious a legit MLB starter going forward or is he just getting by on smoke and mirrors?
Keith Law: Back end starter. Also, I need someone with art or Photoshop skills to make a gif of Marge Simpson sneering like Sid Vicious with that punk hairdo.

John: Is Dylan Carlson a bench guy regular?
Keith Law: More.

Todd: Rep Tom Massie is confusing. He drives an electric Tesla, has solar powered house, talks all the time about conservation & sustainability. He does more to combat climate change on an individual level than most people…..yet denies climate change.
Keith Law: And he went to MIT. He can’t be as dumb as he sounded yesterday, can he? Is he just pandering to his constituents in rural Kentucky?

Justi: What does Nolan Gorman need to do to get into your top 100 at midseason? Is the lack of inclusion on your list due to swing and miss issues?
Keith Law: I had him in my top 50.
Keith Law: I mean, maybe just check my rankings before posting? It’ll make this a better experience for everyone.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Does a smaller sample size for someone like Julio Rodriguez, someone who the organization thought was advanced enough to tackle full season ball at 18, matter ever so slightly more? (enough to get excited, anyway)
Keith Law: No. Sample size doo doo do do do do, sample size doo doo do do do do…

Nick Grit: I’ve seen some pretty differing opinions on Casey Mize, with some referencing a ‘violent’ delivery and/or athleticism concerns. He has always struck me as a pretty complete pitcher coming out of college and pretty safe. It doesn’t seem like you are as worried as others about his health, is that accurate?
Keith Law: Yeah, those opinions to which you refer – and I honestly have never seen that anywhere – are wrong.

Bob: Better longterm outlook: Xavier Edwards, Tirso Ornelas, Josh Naylor.
Keith Law: Ornelas. All big leaguers though.

Blaine: Thanks for your review of the strategy game Wingspan. It’s beautifully made and a joy to play.
Keith Law: So good. I can’t wait till the next print run hits so I can tell you all to buy it.

Robert: Zack Brown has flown through the brewers system much like Corbin Burnes. What’s your report on him?
Keith Law: Also on my top 100.

Justin: Bryan Reynolds’ (obviously SSS, high babip, etc) hot start has me wondering. In general, how much can hamate surgery temporarily sap someone’s power? Would we be talking a full scouting grade?
Keith Law: I have heard estimates of up to 18 months – I remember an NHL player, Jason Allison (?), saying it took him that long to regain full strength after a broken wrist. I don’t think there’s a hard and fast rule, but I like to try to give guys a calendar year to get it back.

Ben: Any potential GUYS at LSU this year?
Keith Law: No.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Do you have any concerns about Vaughn, being a R/R 1B and all, going #2? Or is the bat that freaking good?
Keith Law: The bat is that fucking good, man.

Michael: Hi Keith- Thanks for the chat! I know you have said that baseball content outside of work feels like… well…work. But wondering if you have ever read the classic “Glory Of their Times” by Lawrence Ritter about the old days of baseball and what you thought of it.
Keith Law: I don’t think I ever read that one, although I read some books in that genre maybe 15-20 years ago. The whitewashing of the sordid parts of the game’s history grate on me.

ck: Keith, you had an exchange on Twitter last week about John Anderson of Minnesota allowing a pitch count to get dangerously high. Does he have a history of pitcher abuse? My sense is that in general he is very well regarded, and I had a personal experience with him (albeit over 30 years ago) that gave me a very favorable impression of him.
Keith Law: First time his name had come up in that context with me, but his inaction in that game was a major blunder.

Nelson: Do you think Acuna, Pache, and Waters will be the Braves’ 2021 Outfield?
Keith Law: I’ll buy that. And I’ll watch the hell out of it.

Grover: Why does the hypocrisy go over the heads of guys like Archer who beat their chest and flex after a strike out but take offense to a guy admiring the donger he just hit?
Keith Law: I understand your point, but as I said on Twitter about this, hypocrisy is beside the point. Throwing at a hitter is wrong, no matter who you are, and MLB should drop the hammer on those guys. It should go in the next CBA – you throw at a hitter, you get a mandatory suspension of, say, ten games. Enough to hurt the team, not just your paycheck, so your bosses and teammates might say, hey, cut that shit out, we need you to pitch.

Nils: You mentioned Mason Thompson in your ESPN article earlier this week. Is he long for the rotation or do you see him becoming a RP long term?
Keith Law: Starter.

Justi: Do the Reds bring up Senzel as soon as he’s healthy or are they gonna continue to be cute with him? He’s 23, what’s the holdup?
Keith Law: He’s hurt.

Ira: Do you have concerns about Chris Sale’s decreased average velocity on FB and general lack of usual dominance going back to middle of last season, especially given the extension he just received?
Keith Law: I’m concerned about the combination of reduced velocity and shoulder trouble from last year.

Ben: Any early rumblings at what the Tigers would do at 5? Do you think they would go for Witt if he falls or stick to college bats?
Keith Law: The list of six position players I mentioned above would apply to them too. Greene or Abrams, likely. Feel like they wouldn’t take Vaughn if he’s there.

Nick: Are you planning on seeing the West Virginia Power with Gilbert, Kelenic and Rodriguez?
Keith Law: If they come closer to me, and I’m free to go, sure. I don’t plan that far out.

TP: Can Freddy Peralta succeed as starter without better secondary pitches? Against the Reds last week, he threw 84 fastballs out of 100 pitches, but struck out 11 and gave up 2 hits over 8 IP. His other starts…not so great…
Keith Law: It’s all deception – his fastball isn’t very fast, but hitters don’t see it if he throws it up in the zone. I think he can start but have a lot of disaster starts along the way, to the point where he’s still valuable enough to start but that people in/out of the org wonder if he should be in a different role.

Josh: Was surprised not to see Dodgers’ Tulsa team on your loaded MiLB list. Not enough depth of talent there?
Keith Law: Right.

Michael: Any chance you saw that Gabe Kapler said that the Phillies can’t baby Roman Quinn? After all, Kapler said, he’s “not made of glass”. Wondering if you know if they actually had this confirmed by a medical doctor, as I have my doubts.
Keith Law: I actually thought he was made of glass, so this is big, if true.

Aaron G: Do the Yankees have the depth to lose Severino and not have to pick up Keuchel (and lose the draft pick)?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. At this point how much production would you project to get from Severino, with rotator cuff inflammation and now a lat injury that will probably keep him from pitching in the majors until at least June 1st?

Hoz: Hello Keith! Do you think Domingo German can stick and develop further into a 2 or 3 sp? Much thanks
Keith Law: No, I think he’s a reliever.

Jim: Is Josh Naylor’s bat good enough to supplant Franmil / Renfroe in SD as soon as opening day next season?
Keith Law: Reyes and Renfroe are outfielders, so no.

Everyone: ESPN’s updates on the website are whack. No pitching starts pace indicator and the FantasyCast is garbage compared to years past. So I guess my question is, what the hell?
Keith Law: Well, if I had anything to do with that, that would be useful, but this isn’t even an ESPN chat.

Mark: Do you post Klawchat schedules anywhere?I get the newsletter, is there somewhere else I need to look ? Thanks
Keith Law: I shoot for Thursdays at 1 pm when I’m not traveling. I can tell you now next week I’ll be on the road.

Bloop: So. How’d the mythical Robert look?
Keith Law: He went 0 for 5 with two punches. The universe is mocking me.

Jo-Nathan: How high would Jasson Dominguez go in the draft this year if eligible?
Keith Law: Not that high. The two pools aren’t very comparable to begin with, given the players’ ages, but what I’ve heard on Dominguez doesn’t make him a top ten talent or anything.

Adam Trask: FYI, Cuban Baseball Federation is not run by the Cuban government. It is run by the Cuban Olympic Committee, which answers to the International Olympic Committee.
Keith Law: “Answers to” is not the same thing. Who funds the Federation? Not the IOC, right?

Anya: Michigan State basketball rape story in the NY Times today. OMFG, what is wrong with colleges when it comes to sports…
Keith Law: College sport fandom is like a cult. Last June, Oregon State abused one of its pitchers, Kevin Abel, to win the CWS, throwing him 129 pitches the day after he’d thrown a 23-pitch relief outing. He was 19, so even the 129 was over the PitchSmart limit for his age, and that limit assumes regular rest before the start. I called them out at the time, and Pat Casey, the OSU coach, said people criticizing him were just haters (that we “didn’t want them to win,” I believe, as if I give two shits who wins the CWS). Abel has been hurt much of the spring and now has to have Tommy John surgery. I pointed this out yesterday … and was immediately set upon by OSU fans who are suddenly experts in pitching injuries in mechanics. They believe exactly what they want, and only what they want, rather than consider that the team or its players or its coaches might be less than perfect.
Keith Law: Also, Casey did the same to Drew Rasmussen, running him out for full outings just a year off TJ, enough that Rasmussen flunked his physical with the Rays and required a second TJ less than two years after his first one.

Chuck: Cedric Mullins a AAA guy, AAAA guy or MLB guy?
Keith Law: Bench/up-and-down guy.

Ben: When does Milb present to us a remotely friendly site and app? This is ridiculous!
Keith Law: MILB turning its app from a useful one to a completely useless one is the most bizarre thing I’ve ever seen on that platform. Apps are supposed to improve, and add features, right?

E: You have mentioned a weaker draft class numerous times this year. Is there a chance no draftees crack the top 20 prospects next year?
Keith Law: Rutschman maybe, otherwise no.

Jake L.: Are you a believer in the Forbes Team values? The Rays, to no surprise, scoff that the team is now worth 1.01 Billion dollars
Keith Law: They’re educated estimates, but hardly precise. It’s very difficult to properly value an asset that not only isn’t publicly traded but the sale of which is effectively regulated by a third party.

Brian Godish: Once the season starts, how do you divide up your time between MLB, the minors, and draft prep? I picture your office with 6 screens this time of year.
Keith Law: Watching draft guys on TV is mostly useless to me. The angles are all wrong.

Guest: Can you confirm Luis Robert is real now?
Keith Law: I can confirm this.

scott: Jake Mangum looks like he will finish as the all time hits leader in the SEC. Does he have any professional future?
Keith Law: Professional yes, major-league no.

Jeff: It seems Oregon State lies about the nature of Abel’s injury. Shouldn’t there be some repercussions from the NCAA?
Keith Law: Ahahahahahahahahah oh my god that’s hilarious. No, they’ll probably suspend a different player for accepting a free sip of water.

Jerry: Last night’s performance out of the bullpen for James notwithstanding, if the back end of the Astros rotation isn’t doing the job by summer would James and/or Whitley bring enough to the table to keep the good times rolling or would it be time to start shopping Tucker and others for a big time SP?
Keith Law: Why not both? Try Whitley and James while exploring the market for Tucker.

Big Fan: Is ‘Insert Player’ from ‘Insert Favorite Team’ going to be awesome this year based on ‘Insert Small Sample Stat’?
Keith Law: I’m trying to skip most of those questions this week, but yeah, that’s about the size of it. Nobody knows which great/terrible start is real.

Jeff: Does it make any sense that Abel would feel a twinge in his elbow while rehabbing after being shut down for an alleged bad back?
Keith Law: When I was with the Jays, Jeff Niemann was a potential first-rounder at Rice (heh) and missed some starts his junior year with what was reported as a groin injury. One of my colleagues asked in a group discussion about potential picks if that was the groin that’s attached to the elbow ligament.

Esteban: Have you heard old town road by lil nas x? Thots?
Keith Law: I hate that fucking song already.

Bobby D: It the recent past it seems that you have been reading more. Were/are your motivations tied to your writing or more along the line of personal enjoyment?
Keith Law: I’m still reading at my usual pace. Just started The Inheritance of Loss yesterday.

Eric: Some people on Blue Jays twitter are starting to get excited about Patrick Murphy…justified? Any insights you can share?
Keith Law: It’s two starts.

Brian Godish: Maybe Madrigal played and you just couldn’t see him…
Keith Law: On the contrary, I could look him right in the eyes.

nelson: Talk about the black hole
Keith Law: I’m just trying to figure out how we can fire all the anti-vaxxers right past its event horizon.

Mike: If the over/under was set at “1” on Big League Regulars among McKinney, Jansen, Teoscar, Gurriel, Tellez and Drury, would you take the over?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jay: At what point do the draft picks become unattached to free agents? That’s the day I think we see deals for Kimbrel & Keuchel
Keith Law: After the draft.

Guest: Keith, any idea if ESPN+ will get folder into Disney+ whenever it comes out?
Keith Law: I was just discussing this with someone last night – I don’t know, and my gut is that they’ll be separate services, but how great would it be if they were combined or even bundled like Spotify/Hulu? (UPDATE: Disney announced this afternoon that there will indeed be some sort of bundle.)

Chris: Not even looking at the statline, Amed Rosario looks like a different player this year. Turning on balls inside while displaying better patience. Exciting.
Keith Law: Cautiously optimistic on that one. Hitting balls harder, not getting them quite enough into the air. At some point after Brooklyn his swing got a little flatter.

Mark: I was watching a show on T.V the other day called ,”The best Thing I ever Ate.” Curious what as to what your answer would be.
Keith Law: A longtime reader & correspondent (who seems to have vanished from the internet completely, so I’m a bit worried about her) asked me that years ago, and my answer was the meatballs with tomato sauce and lardo at Boston’s Coppa. I no longer eat beef, so that dish will have to remain a memory, but I could also offer the duck carnitas at Cosme in NYC, the piedras y oro dessert at Xochi in Houston, the Wiseguy pizza at Phoenix’s Pizzeria Bianco, the grilled carrots with jalapeño chimichurri and apricot puree at Juniper and Ivy … okay, this might get long…

Keith: What insights (if any) did seeing Luis Robert in person give you?
Keith Law: Swing is better than I expected. At bats were not. My goodness he is a large man.

Chris: I got to watch a lot of Kyle Isbel and Nathan Eaton play last year in the Pioneer league and came away really impressed by both. Any thoughts on either of those guys? Any reason for optimism?
Keith Law: First two games with Isbel weren’t promising. I’ll see him a ton more this spring, though.

Nick: For the Phils, would signing Keuchel and moving Pivetta to the pen make more sense than just signing Kimbrel? (Not that either scenario is likely.)
Keith Law: Yes but I think they still view Pivetta as a long-term starter. I think he’s too vulnerable to LHB.

Steve (nyc): You have mentioned how it is like work when being in large social settings. I have similar experience and can’t get spouse to understand why I don’t always want to entertain. How do you handle this?
Keith Law: To what extent does your spouse understand why you feel this way? Explaining your anxiety or discomfort may help. Even asking them to read something that gets into what anxiety is and why we feel it could help them understand.

Big Time Timmy Jim: You’ve maintained that you never questioned Luis Severino’s stuff, only whether or not he can hold up longterm given the delivery and body. In two consecutive years, his stuff worn down in the 2nd half, and how with real shoulder/arm issues to start 2019. While I know you don’t advocate for any pitchers to be injured (and actively root for them to succeed, even if it means you’re ‘wrong’), is there just a small part of you that wants to say “This is what I was talking about, guys.”?
Keith Law: Yes, it occurs to me – I took this question, which some readers might interpret as prima facie evidence that I’m gloating – but i find it nauseates me to think about taking pride or pleasure in a player’s injury, if that makes sense. I’ve said this before – that baseball player who fails is a grown-up kid who always dreamed of being a major leaguer. I get physically uncomfortable when fans mock, heckle, or just boo opposing players who fail. I get that most fans do this stuff or think it’s fine or even funny, but that’s still a human on the receiving end of the invective.

Jerry: Carlos Correa has been pretty adamant that he won’t sign an extension. Good for him. I think every player should make as much as they can. Assuming he walks do the Astros have any SS-3B types in the minors who project as better than average MLBers by the time he’s a FA?
Keith Law: I hear Betts is the same way. Right now, no, I don’t think they do.

Mike : Why do you keep saying Kelenic was the Mets top prospect when your list is the only one that has him ahead of Gimenez
Keith Law: Because … it’s … my … list.

Newt: I don’t know if he’ll ever hit consistently, but man, watching Byron Buxton break the sound barrier rounding second en route to his triple last night was jaw-dropping.
Keith Law: And at the plate, he looks like he did for most of 2017, too. I’m optimistic.

Lawl: Too early for top of the draft rumblings? White Sox have a chance at Vaughn?
Keith Law: They pick third so yes. If I had to guess – this is a guess, people, not based on much info at all – I’d say picks 1-2-3 were Rutschman, Witt Jr, Vaughn. Maybe then Abrams/Greene in some order, although neither did himself any favors at NHSI with 20+ directors and several GMs in attendance.

Tim Apple: Do the early struggles of the CWS make it more likely that they will call up Cease, Madrigal, et al this summer or less likely? Stadium is empty but does control outweigh draw or vice versa?
Keith Law: Cease is a no-doubt callup, isn’t he? They’re going to need more starters no matter what, just with typical attrition, and what if Reynaldo Lopez’s bad start is more than just SSS? Madrigal I doubt we see but I would be shocked if Cease isn’t up by July 1st.

Pete: How do you usually watch MLB each night? Lots of flipping between games or mostly settle in for one on each time slot?
Keith Law: Depends on the night. Lately I’ve been watching a lot of the Padres because they nearly always have someone I want to see. Some nights I just bounce around close games.

MikeM: Yankees blog River Ave Blues is closing shop. They were one of the sites that really got me into baseball analytics and led me to learn a lot as a fan. I will miss their contributions to the baseball discussion (not withstanding Mike’s job with CBS sports). More baseball blogs should be like that and less reactionary.
Keith Law: Yes, they were one of the best team-specific blogs, and, in my opinion, a good bit less prone to the sort of jingoistic fandom into which even many decent blogs fall. I’ll always have fond memories of the one commenter there who called me a racist for omitting Donavan Tate from my top 100 the winter after Tate was the #3 pick in the draft.

Ben: How can we tell when a hot start is the 1% of times when it is real and not the 99% when it is a SSS? We hear so much about “swing tweaks” and trying out new pitches now that it seems like there is a report of something “different” on every player with a hot start.
Keith Law: I do not believe we can. We can guess, but that’s all we’re doing.

Chris P: This is the time guys generally pick up helium before the draft, so are there any guys you’ve been hearing about so far that are making the jump?
Keith Law: I wrote about Hunter Bishop a few weeks ago. Josh Wolf is a prep RHP in Texas who has surged. Josh Mears in Seattle is another one. Blake Walston in NC.

BigDaddeh: What are your thoughts on how much rest from baseball preteen kids should have. Not talking showcase circuit or max effort radar gun efforts, but fall ball after spring and summer and things like that
Keith Law: Pitchers should take at least 100 days off from throwing. I know that’s a bit of an arbitrary number but it seems in line with most of the recommendations I’ve heard from people I know with teams and from sources like PitchSmart.

Fan boy : Favorite minor league atmosphere within driving distance of your home?
Keith Law: Reading.

romorr: Adley is it at 1.1, right? No getting cute with underslot than overslot?
Keith Law: Why not? If you could sign Vaughn, save $1MM, and go grab JJ Goss for $3 million at your second pick, wouldn’t you do that?

Daniel: Hi Keith. Thank you for offering your fans this forum. What do you think is the reason that Forrest Whitley is not with the major league club? Is this more to give him innings due to the lack of them last season or a manipulation of the service time rule? I would think he is a better option than Peacock at this point.
Keith Law: Barely pitched last year at all.

Tony Montana: Is Jordyn Adams one of the highest ceiling players in the minors that is currently outside the top 100?
Keith Law: That’s reasonable.

Draft pick compensation: HEY! Don’t blame me for Keuchel/Kimbrel not signing. These guys think they’re getting $18M+ for 4+ years.
Keith Law: I would believe it hurts Kimbrel more than it hurts Keuchel.

JR: How would you handle Smith/Alonso if you were the Mets GM? Seems like two really good candidates at same position, but given Alonso is getting bulk of playing time a trade of Smith would be selling low on him?
Keith Law: I think Smith is trade bait. Even if Alonso slumps, he’s going to hold that job for a while – they’re not going to switch the guys if Alonso has a bad week. Helps that Smith looks good physically and has been solid in his minimal playing time.

Jake L.: When you are on a scouting trip, do you prefer to eat food at local restaurants or do actually eat at fast food chains once in awhile?
Keith Law: Local whenever I can. I do eat at Panera from time to time because I can eat something healthful while working too.

Esteban: Do you get more groupies (fans) from espn, food or writing/ reading books good? I like picturing fans waiting outside your hotel for autographs
Keith Law: I do not have groupies. I’m not sure I’d want groupies, but regardless, I do not have them. As for fans, I’ve been honored by how many of you have come to my various book signings.

Erik: thoughts on Minor League Baseball restricting usage of video from the games? Just saw that Baseball America took down all the in-game videos from their site.
Keith Law: Terrible. Waiting to hear if this is permanent and, if so, what they’re thinking.

MATT DAMON: Have you been able to see Cal Stevenson yet?
Keith Law: A tenth-round senior sign? Did I miss something?

Ben: Re Buxton, watching Billy Hamilton score from second on a fly out (is it scored as a sac fly??) was incredible.
Keith Law: Yep, that’s a sac fly.

Rod: When is the next mock draft coming?
Keith Law: You have never seen a mock from me before May 1st.

MATT DAMON: What happened to Logan Warmoth? He was ranked pretty high in your 2017 draft lift
Keith Law: Contact quality has been totally absent with wood. I’m floored – I thought his swing was good and was told his exit velocities in college were no worse than solid.

Brodie Van Jump on the Bandwagon: I am pleasantly surprised at Pete Alonso’s overall hitting– approach, hitting to all fields, etc. I recall you weren’t super high on him… I know it’s a small sample size, but he’s been pretty impressive on the hitting side, right? I think a 25 HR/90 RBI season and hiting .280+ may not be out of the question, especially if the Mets offense keeps on hitting. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I could see .280/25, and I could see .250-.260/30-35. I think I could see the latter more easily.

Matthew: I have recently entered the world of publicly published articles — I have to ask, how do you block out the unkind portion of a legitimate criticism, especially if the critique is a fair one?
Keith Law: Ignore. It invalidates the entire commentary for me.

Chris: Where does Hayden Simpson rank on your “WTF First Round Picks” list? The Cubs had some whiffs around that time period, but that was an all-timer, wasn’t it?
Keith Law: I believe that was one of only two times since I started this job that someone took a player in the actual first round I hadn’t heard of (although someone reminded me I did know who Simpson was, I had just totally dismissed him from my mind). The other was Kevin Matthews, 33rd overall in 2011 by Texas; he never got out of low-A with the Rangers, and had just one pro outing above A-ball at all, pitching in indy ball in 2018.

romorr: I’ve heard this here and there, but any truth to Trout falling in the draft because of Billy Rowell?
Keith Law: That was one variable among many, yes.

Charlie Indio Montoyo: Keith. I really respect your opinion alot. I just want to know why you think Thornton has below average command and control. He’s had a a 1.7 BB/9 in his entire minor league career (spanning nearly 450 IP), and he’s been able to locate his pitches really well in his first 2 starts (granted small sample size obviously).
Keith Law: Walk rate is not command.

Jake L.: How are you doing today after dunking on “the stick to baseball guy ” in regards to the Schilling thing? I don’t know if I ever laughed so much
Keith Law: I mean, my internal reaction to anyone who says “stick to baseball” is “go fuck yourself,” but rare is anyone so stupid as to non-ironically say “stick to baseball” when I’m actually commenting on baseball.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you all so much for reading. I do not think I’ll get to chat next week, and depending on travel/weather, the next chat will probably be April 24th. Enjoy your weekends, and if you’re at any of the Texas Tech/WVU games this weekend, I should be there for the one Alek Manoah pitches.

Longreads, 4/7/19.

My latest draft post for ESPN+ subscribers looks at the top prospects from last week’s NHSI tournament, including C.J. Abrams, Riley Greene, and Jack Leiter; as well as Saturday’s outing by Elon RHP George Kirby.

Here are some of the leftover longreads I hadn’t gotten through in time for yesterday’s post:

  • The Guardian looks at the evolution of the influencer market, which continues to grow even through scandals and fragmentation. The article also focuses, a bit oddly, on influencers’ drive for “authenticity,” which strikes me as a contradiction in terms.
  • A reader sent this lengthy Current Affairs overview of Pete Buttigeig as seen through his book Shortest Way Home, arguing that he’s not a progressive candidate and that progressive voters shouldn’t want any part of him as a Presidential candidate. I think the article makes many good points, notably when discussing his policies as South Bend mayor and how he seemed to deprioritize issues like poverty reduction or racial inequality, but also makes some dubious inferences and leans too much on the book itself, which is a campaign document. Buttigeig also wrote about his ten favorite books for Vulture and I find it hard to believe that these ten, which read like the list of books you want other people to believe are your favorite books, are actually his favorites.
  • The Indy Star profiles John Franzese, whose testimony sent his father, a Colombo crime family boss, to jail, and his life after leaving witness protection, trying to work with recovering addicts like himself.
  • I’ve read two great books on the Chicxulub impact event, the asteroid collision with the earth that wiped out the dinosaurs and caused the KT mass extinction event, in the last year: The Rise and Fall of the Dinosaurs and T. rex and the Crater of Doom. The New Yorker has a piece right in line with those, looking at the recent discovery of a site that may have a fossil record of the first few hours after the impact.
  • Matthew Komatsu documents his experiences as a Japanese-American in the wake of the 2011 tsunami, and what he found in his 2018 return to the country.