Stick to baseball, 6/21/19.

No new ESPN+ content this week, although that will change next week after I get to a few more minor league games. I did hold a Klawchat on Friday.

On the board game front, I had two pieces up at Paste this week. One is a straight review of Corinth, a new roll-and-write game from Days of Wonder that is sort of Yspahan: the Dice Game, but with a new theme and much altered rules. The other recaps the day and a half I spent at the Origins Game Fair, running through all the new games I saw or played.

On July 8th, the night after the Futures Game, I’ll be at the Hudson Library and Historical Society in Hudson, Ohio, talking baseball, taking questions, and signing copies of my book Smart Baseball.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 6/21/19.

I have two new posts up at Paste this week: a wrapup of the new games I saw last week at the Origins Gaming Fair, and a review of the new roll-and-write game Corinth from Days of Wonder.

Keith Law: So if you’re tired of the same old story … it’s Klawchat.

addoeh: I watching Tanner Anderson’s wind-up and I didn’t realize your alma mater teaches the “Ministry of Silly Walks” delivery.
Keith Law: Hey, us Harvard guys are just a bunch of plucky underdogs. No one gave us any advantages. We’re all self-made like that.

Nick: What’s the best fried chicken you’ve had?
Keith Law: The Crack Shack in San Diego, probably because they use the best chicken.

Robert: How would CJ Abrams compare to Royce Lewis as amateurs? They seem quite similar.
Keith Law: I don’t see them as similar at all other than their speed. Lewis had more impact with the bat. Abrams is a better shortstop right now than Lewis at the same age.

Mike: I keep reading good reports on Kelenic this year. Is he looking more and more like a top 20 prospect?
Keith Law: No question.

Mike in Seattle: Hi Keith – love your work and was wondering if you planned on doing an mid-season updated prospect ranking this year?
Keith Law: Yes, I do this every year on the Thursday of All-Star Week. This year that will be July 11th.

Alex: As a Braves fan, I hate thinking that the Braves “did the right thing” in refusing to hand out multiyear free agent deals and waiting to sign Keuchel to a one-year deal two months into the season — this boring bean-counter baseball is appalling labor economics and it sucks to watch. But it’s not poor strategy.We all know the MLBPA has a tough row to hoe in the next CBA. Is there anything that journalists and writers can do in writing about free agents to
Keith Law: It’s not poor strategy if you get the player, right? What if you could have had Keuchel on Opening Day and got 30 starts from him … but instead, you didn’t sign him, and you miss the playoffs by a game?

Alex: We know the next CBA is going to be tough for players, as owners have (somehow) decided upon collective stinginess as a strategy. Are there any best practices for journalists and writers, when writing about free agents and free agency, to make the guaranteed dollar amount less of a focus than the actual human player?
Keith Law: Sorry, this looks like the second part of your question. A good start would be for writers to stop acting as if players who earn eight figures aren’t deserving – this money exists in the sport because MLB teams are highly profitable. If the players aren’t paid, the excess goes to owners.

Tom B: Phillies moving Alec Bohm at the right speed? What do you see as his ceiling?
Keith Law: No. Starting him in low-A was a colossal waste of everyone’s time. He was the third pick in the draft out of college. If he wasn’t ready for high-A on Opening Day this year at age 22, he was the wrong pick.

M: Adbert Alzolay had a really nice debut last night. Can he stick around with the big league team this year?
Keith Law: Yes. The bigger question is whether his improved FB command and better CB are enough to let him get lefties out three times through an order. If not, he’s still a valuable bullpen piece. But if they can, he can start now.

Kyle KS: Does the juiced ball benefit pitch speed and spin rate? If it has reduced drag while in the air when it’s hit, does it do the same for pitchers or is the distance and time from the mound to the catcher too short to have effect?
Keith Law: The altered baseball changes everything – spin rate, drag, carry – although I don’t think it affects pitch speed. Better question for a physicist.

Ben: Is this the Max Kepler you were expecting?
Keith Law: Yes but I was a year early, again.

Ben: Odds we see Bo Bichette this year?
Keith Law: Very good if healthy.

Steve: I believe in a past chat you said WRC+ is not a great way to evaluate minor league players but I cannot recall why. If that’s your sentiment, could you elaborate?
Keith Law: It only measures production, but we don’t necessarily care about production with prospects – how you get to the production is just as important, and sometimes we’re happy with prospects who don’t produce a ton but aren’t overmatched, such as teenagers in full season leagues. Chase Vallot is my go-to example: He posted a 136 wRC+ in high-A two years ago, and wasn’t old for the level, but he really couldn’t hit. He saw enough bad pitching, since it was A-ball, that he could beat up on that enough for a good wRC+ despite getting blown away by even average major league stuff. Last I checked he was back in low-A and still not hitting.

Felix: Do you happen to know when we will see Eric Pardinho toe the rubber this year?
Keith Law: I haven’t asked anyone but I assume now that short-season has begun we’ll see him.

Kevin: Given how the Mets have played this year, and how Diaz has been relatively average this year plus Cano is hurt. And Kelenic has been great this year. Was that the dumbest trade in the past 2 years?
Keith Law: This trade is going to haunt them for a long time. Dunn has also been excellent for Seattle in AA.

Dave: Do you like the Bulls taking White at 7? Seems like a good fit & you might miss some of the injury risk that comes with Garland.
Keith Law: Jon Garland?

Bill: Keith, no question. Just wanted to thank you for the book recommendation on The Master and Margarita (via your top-100 novels list). Such a terrific read. There are so many wonderful layers to that book – I couldn’t put it down. Keep up the great work!
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I’ve read well over a thousand novels now and that is still my favorite. It’s one of the only books I have ever read twice, and it holds up.

Janey: Do you feel stress over the border situation and how the US now are the bad guys? 40+ people in rooms meant for 8, kids taking care of kids, separated families. Any advice on what can be done before we get the chance to vote people out?
Keith Law: I’m afraid that I’m getting desensitized because there is so much bad news (if you care about human rights, or just feel empathy at all). If you live in a red district, though, you should be all over your elected reps to voice your displeasure – and if you live in a blue one, as I do, make sure your reps know where you stand.

Matt: Aside from a couple starts Alex Faedo has been impressive in AA this year. Jason Beck said scouts had him sitting 94-95 in his last start. If his velo is back to that is he a legit prospect?
Keith Law: He’s not sitting 94-95. I’ve spoken to multiple scouts who’ve seen him and nobody reported that.
Keith Law: He’s probably a reliever but could be a back-end starter.

Jon: Are you surprised Nolan Gorman isn’t skipping straight to AA like the cardinals usually do with offensive prospects? How do you think he will fare in such a pitcher friendly league?
Keith Law: He’s only 19, that would make no sense to jump him to AA.

Mike in Sweden: Why did everyone think that 1B was Bellinger’s “natural” position?
Keith Law: It was his primary position in HS and he’s at least a 70 defender there.

Jerry: What is Seth Beer’s ceiling?
Keith Law: Everyday DH. Might have some platoon split issues to work on.

Seth: The Yankees have now had 6 separate shoulder injuries this season (Betances, Severino, Stanton, Andujar, Loaisiga, Montgomery). I’m not one for conspiracy theories, but doesn’t that feel like more than a coincidence? Could this be a strength and conditioning issue?
Keith Law: Bit of a coincidence, I think; Loaisiga has been injury-prone since before he signed, and Severino’s delivery was always a red flag. Plus Stanton seems like he should be in a different category from the five pitchers.

BalbonisImpactedColon: Is Clint Frazier in the Yankees org at the end of the year?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Adam: I saw a recent report that said Allard was sitting 91-93 and the bite on the curve was back (didnt know it left). Have you heard anything along those lines?
Keith Law: Nope. I don’t believe that velocity either.

CRAIG BIGGIO: YOU WERE WRONG ABOUT MY BOY WERENT YOU? ADMIT IT
Keith Law: YOUR BOY IS HITTING .203 and striking out nearly 30% of the time.

Rando : Chisholm had potential to make a huge leap on your rankings does he now have a chance to fall out of the top 100?
Keith Law: What? Why would he fall out of the top 100? He’s still one of the best prospects in baseball.

Joe: Thoughts on the EE trade? I didn’t see a write-up.
Keith Law: No writeup. No thoughts, really.

Jake: Gallen or Alzolay a better pitching prospect? Both seem to be having better years this year
Keith Law: Alzolay.

Peet: Is Preller just a bad negotiator? Gave Weathers full slot last year and broke the bank with Hudson Head. Or is Head actually worth that much?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t pay that much for Head. (Phrasing, boom!) Don’t know why giving Weathers slot was bad, though. That was his range in the draft.

Jonathan: Heard an interesting Hidden Brain recently talking about the Placebo Effect. If there are studies showing results without real medical intervention, is this a good road to go down? Is it ethical, and maybe most importantly, is it real?
Keith Law: The placebo effect is real. Charging people for it, however, is probably unethical.

PJ: I am all for the safety of expanded netting, and know you are too. But I think the change needs to happen in tandem with changing the location of the cameras for baseball telecasts. Too many teams let wires and poles and netting get in the way of the tv viewing. There’s sometimes a catch by the RF or LF is hidden behind a load-supporting wire.
Keith Law: Sure but isn’t that an easy fix?

JR: Thoughts on Anthony Kay and his development? Does he make it to MLB this year? Is he ready?
Keith Law: I think he’s ready. Could see him recalled if they trade one or more starters next month.

Sam: Have you heard anything on Royce Lewis? Numbers don’t look so great…thanks for the chat!
Keith Law: I’ve mentioned his swing & setup changes already … way too many moving parts. Not sure who taught him that but I imagine the Twins aren’t pleased.

Ryan: Tatis Jr. has been on fire since coming back off the IL. What’s his ceiling at his peak. Perennial MVP candidate?
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely.

Quinn the Eskimo: In your opinion, is College Baseball at all levels too “white”? Too much talk about “fundamentals” and “playing the game the right way”, etc…
Keith Law: It’s very white on the field, too, probably a function of disparate opportunities at youth levels and the lack of full scholarships. Baseball’s an expensive sport to play.

Bobby: Still think Dom Smith > Alonso?
Keith Law: Yes.

Matt: What in the world happened with Mike Vasil?
Keith Law: He made a bad choice.

Brett : What methods of cooking is spatchcocking a chicken especially good for?
Keith Law: High-heat roasting. Apparently good for grilling but I’ve never tried it.

Matt: If Verlander pitches another 6 years and ages well he could finish top 10 all time in SP WAR and top 6 post WWII. If he ages really well or pitches longer he could finish in the Maddux, RJ and Ryan category. He is one of the best pitchers of all time and I don’t think he gets enough credit. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I think he gets credit. He’s a clear HoFer.

Josh: Is there still room for Amed Rosario to become an above average regular? Hes only 23, but he is also a Met. You understand my confusion.
Keith Law: I’m still in.

Jim: Keith, Thanks as always for the chats. Have you heard anything on the status of the Nats’ Mason Denaburg? He didn’t pitch after being drafted because of (IIRC) biceps tendinitis. He’s listed on the Auburn NY-Penn roster, but others have said that’s unconfirmed. It would be … weird … if their 2019 #1 pick started pitching before their 2018 #1.
Keith Law: I thought he was also fighting some injury this spring. I could be wrong.

JR: Your daughter still appreciate animated movies? Will you be seeing Toy Story 4 this weekend?
Keith Law: Yes, but not seeing it first weekend. Let the crowds die down a bit.

Dave: What aspect of baseball do you think is under-covered right now?
Keith Law: Minor league salaries.

TJ: Re Matt Boyd: Frazier and Florial or Dom Smith and Gimenez too much to ask? Too little? About right?
Keith Law: Why would the Mets trade for him? The Yankees offer seems reasonable, but then again I’m not a big believer in Florial’s chance to learn to recognize pitches.

Kretin: Think the Mets sign Allan?
Keith Law: Yes.
Keith Law: They did not draft him on a whim. They clearly believed they had the money he wanted. If he doesn’t sign it’s likely some non-financial issue. But I believe he’ll sign.

Matt: When does a team blow up the entire draft system by spending much more than the limit and getting a great draft haul of “unsignable players.” Losing the picks in the future hurts, but couldn’t they just do the same thing every year? Not having a first round pick hurts less if you spend the same way every year.
Keith Law: You’d essentially punt the next draft or two by doing this. It might be a valid strategy but the risk + backlash would be substantial.

Tock: To what range do you see Deivi rising in the mid-season rankings?
Keith Law: He’ll be in the top 50 but not rising a ton … it’s not like he’s substantially different than what I said he was in January. He’ll move up due to graduations/injuries ahead of him.

Brian: I know you’ve been bearish on Dakota Hudson, but do you think his last couple months (significantly improved results from an abundance of ground balls, although a blah K/BB ratio) portend a secure role in the Cards rotation? Or is he more of a reliever long term?
Keith Law: Still think he’s a reliever.

Mark: Has Trent Grisham turned himself back into a prospect again? Still walks a lot and doesn’t strike out but now he actually has power. Still only 22 too.
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely. Maybe a regular, definitely a big leaguer.

Concerned Citizen: I’m scared to death by Trump’s brinksmanship, this time with Iran. Please reassure me in any way you see fit.
Keith Law: I have no way to reassure you on this, sorry.

Jeff D.: Which Dodger catching prospect has the best career: Smith, Ruiz, Cartaya?
Keith Law: Ruiz, Smith, Cartaya, in that order, but all three are prospects.

Salty: Keith – I bailed on Archer a few seasons ago, but started DVR’ing this season. I know you bailed awhile back…did you ever get back in, and if so, how’s the season been?
Keith Law: I am through season 8. Still enjoyed it.

Liam: Cristian Pache has been great offensively in AA – more walks than all of last year, same homers, etc.

In your top 100, you mentioned he’s a 20-25 homer guy that never posts high OBPs, with the new MLB ball is something like .300/.355 with 30 homers realistic?
Keith Law: I’d bet the under on that. He’s also probably an 80 defender in center, though, so he’d still be a star.

Aubrey: Between Yordan Alvaraez’ performance in AAA & so far in MLB, have you seen/heard anything about him that makes you rethink his initial ranking as a prospect this season?
Keith Law: Nope. Too many fans seem to think that omitting a player from my top 100 means I think he’s terrible. That was never the case.

Joules: I don’t love Pache’s HR spray chart. You think he’ll be able to get into any oppo power?
Keith Law: Yes.

scrapper: Why is MacKenzie Gore still in high A ball? He’s dominated there all season.
Keith Law: I truly doubt he’s there much longer.

Mike: My company is having a pie baking contest at the company BBQ. What kind of pie should I go with?
Keith Law: Whatever fruit is in season at the time.

Mike: Do you think Hiura stays at 2B long term or when will he move off 2B? I don’t know how he’s looked in the minor leagues at 2B but he looked bad in his brief stint in the Show
Keith Law: He’s not great there, but I think he can be adequate at 2b and hit enough where they don’t care.

Doug: I know it was one start. But why did the Padres go with Maregvicious over Allen at the start of the year?
Keith Law: I wonder if Allen’s disaster start the last Sunday of spring training swayed them.

Jake: Jarren Duran has cooled in AA though the approach is still solid. Do you think he has the bat to be a regular?
Keith Law: Yes.

Adam: Has Riley shown you anything you didnt expect to date?
Keith Law: No.

Rob: How good is Alejandro Kirk’s bat? Can he stick behind the plate to be a regular or is he more of a utility player?
Keith Law: He’s a prospect, potential regular back there. I’m definitely a fan of fat catchers.

Brian: On the Minor league salaries issue, my coworkers son was drafted in the 3rd round last year with a $500K signing bonus. What people don’t understand when they hear that is that is essentially all they will get unless they make it to the big leagues. He also left college a year early with no degree. He lives with his parents in the off-season, paid for his own personal trainer, and had to buy a lot of his own equipment (bats, gloves, etc.). It is border-line criminal how much these guys are exploited chasing a dream.
Keith Law: Yep, except it’s explicitly legal thanks to the Republican Party giving MLB a huge boondoggle in the 2017 tax bill.

JWR: Will you be making further comment about the Twitter flare up with Bauer? I know some of the details but I’m still not sure about the origin/history of events.
Keith Law: What comment have I made? Bauer decided it was appropriate to mock me for being 5’6″. I don’t think there’s anything further to say on it.

Ed: Is Zach Plesac a back of the rotation arm, or can he be more?
Keith Law: That’s what I think he is.

Paul: Mets starters haven’t been great but considering the team trots out the WORST defense in baseball – how much blame does a pitching coach deserve?
Keith Law: Can’t fire the owner or his son, so…

Miguel: When will Andres Muñoz be pitching in high leverage relief for the Padres?
Keith Law: I think sooner rather than later – they’re aware how fleeting an arm like this could be.

JV: How good is the culinary scene in Las Vegas? Also, could you live there, or would it be too much?
Keith Law: I couldn’t, not given the weather and the likely effects of climate change on the water supply.

David Tennant: What did you think of “Blink”? Is there a review of it?
Keith Law: The Doctor Who episode? Best I’ve seen through three seasons.

Randy: Re: draft punting….but that rule was designed to further help small market teams and keep fewer from tanking. It hasn’t really affected the game that way. Still have multiple teams and most of the NL east being non-competitive. Should draft rules be adjusted again in next deal?
Keith Law: Every time MLB has tried to change the draft rules to help small-market teams it hasn’t worked. I have no faith in further adjustments doing so.

eric: we have a passion fruit vine that is set to produce hundreds, if not more, passion fruit. what should we do with them?
Keith Law: It’s supposed to make a great jelly.

Michael: If MLB goes back to a more fair baseball and the numbers plummet, will there be a negative fan reaction?
Keith Law: Probably. But I fear long-term loss of fan interest with how few balls are put into play right now.

Jim: Juniper and Ivy (in San Diego) is truly wonderful. I live three miles away and finally went. Thanks for ranking it so high or I might not have gone.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. Can’t wait to get back there in December.

romorr: I heard Sedlocks fastball is better now, and while it’s just A+, is he popping back up on anyones radar?
Keith Law: You may have heard this because I wrote about it a month ago.
Keith Law: Probably a reliever, but that’s better than his prognosis six months ago.

Jason: Latest thoughts on Nate Pearson? Rotation in his future or dynamic arm out of the bullpen?
Keith Law: Have to think rotation until he shows otherwise.

Mark: What’s the deal with Corbin Burnes? He looked like he should’ve been a breakout candidate this year (I guess Woodruff took all his good juju?) Is it better for him to work out his struggles in the pen in MLB or should he be starting in AAA?
Keith Law: Poor results in the short term especially on HR haven’t changed his long-term outlook.

Jake: I remember a couple of years ago you mentioned that Mario Feliciano’s bat was real. He’s making you look good in that regard. Can he catch, and is that bat good enough to play elsewhere?
Keith Law: He can catch.

TK: Did you ever watch/review Good Omens? I didn’t read the book but just finished watching it with my wife and found it hilarious and very entertaining.
Keith Law: Watched one episode so far and enjoyed it.

baldguy510: What’s the latest on Wander Franco? When do you see him in the majors and is it definitely as a SS?
Keith Law: #1 prospect in baseball. Shortstop.

Dustin: Does Heliot Ramos have Top 20 potential heading into 2020?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.
Keith Law: Again, doesn’t make him a bad player. Just means there are plenty of guys ahead of him.

Craig: A family friend has a son who is a sophomore pitcher and has some acclaim (already committed to pitch for a SEC school, national rankings, etc.). At what point do MLB teams start seriously scouting HS players?
Keith Law: Summer before their senior year it really picks up.

Jim: What do you think of the proposed Tampa-Montreal “split season” floated? Jeff Passan had a pretty good recap. I think there are a lot of questions (contractual, logistic, tax, territorial, etc.), but it brings back thoughts of the Pittsburgh-Washington Homestead Grays (as well as the unfortunate 2004 Montreal-San Juan bit).
Keith Law: One of the worst fucking ideas i’ve heard in a long, long, long time.

eric: this is an actual question, and one, for the first time in my 35 years that i have fully considered it: are you ashamed being an american?
Keith Law: I am today. Our country, like any country, has a history of good and bad traits, of positive and negative impacts on the world. The last two years, however, have been overwhelmingly negative to the point that we are dragging the world backwards.

Dustin: Is there any reason to temper Twins fan’s excitement for Alex Kiriloff? Do you see him getting called up in September?
Keith Law: No reason. Don’t think they add him to the 40-man just yet.

Mark: What should the punishment be for someone who chooses not to vaccinate their kids? Disallow them from every holding a job or participating in society? Taxing them at 90 percent like you so hilariously (ha..ha) suggested?
Keith Law: The punishment should be that they can’t access public education. You want to send your kids to school? Fine. Get them vaccinated. Australia also disallows denier parents from getting certain social benefits. I’m good with that too. No idea what your strawman arguments are supposed to bring to the table.

Ronn: Just wanted to say thank you for always resisting. Me and my wife’s son love your work.
Keith Law: Our government is running concentration camps and arguing that we don’t need to provide the imprisoned children with soap or toothpaste. How can anyone stay silent and still sleep at night?

addoeh: This may be weird way to say this, but it seem the most efficient way of playing baseball (three true outcomes) isn’t the most profitable way (more fans) for the business side. The baseball side would have to change first, but with the long term local/national tv deals, will they change before it is too late?
Keith Law: I think that’s an accurate statement. Changing the ball has contributed. I’d like to see what the game looks like with the pre-2015 baseball … and then maybe we consider other structural changes. (I’ve also suggested raising the bottom of the strike zone, which drifted downward for years before creeping back up a little in ~2017.)

Liam: The Pirates seem to be done with Gregory Polanco (10 ABs in last 9 days) – Do you still have faith in him figuring it out?

I recall when he was a prospect, he had real star potential
Keith Law: I do. Maybe it happens somewhere else.

Snowy: How excited should I be for Ronny Mauricio?
Keith Law: Very. Might be the Mets’ #1 prospect, if not right now, very soon.

Vaccinations: Since that silly question was just asked, I have one that hopefully isn’t as silly. I know you’ve touched on it before, but is my vaccinated child totally safe from these wackados that don’t vaccinate, and what is the important of the heard immunity?
Keith Law: No, unfortunately it doesn’t. No vaccination is 100% effective – just like no medical treatment is – and some vaccines, like pertussis, are only about 70% effective on their own and depend on herd immunity to give you total protection. So people who don’t vaccinate hurt everyone in their communities.

Nate: Do you have a link to the tweet whee bauer threatened Whitney McIntosh personally? I looked and couldn’t find it. Did he delete it?
Keith Law: He deleted it. 12up had it in a post. He threatened her job, not her person.

Devon: Klaw, love your work. Have you ever written a column identifying prospects that are outliers in your rankings compared to other reputably rankings in the industry. I would love to know what players you are comparatively high or low on. Thanks!
Keith Law: I haven’t, and wouldn’t, because I don’t want to give the impression that I’m somehow criticizing the work that experts like Mayo, Callis, and Longenhagen do for their respective sites. We can disagree for valid reasons and still respect the opinions of others who do the same kind of work and put in the right effort.

Chris: Is hanigers trade value done for the year since he won’t be healthy till the all Star break?
Keith Law: If he’s back on the 12th, after the ASB, he’ll have plenty of time to retore his full trade value. Teams know what he is; they just have to see he’s healthy.

Chris: How hypocritical is it for the umpires’ union to be tweeting about Machado and his suspension because it fits a public-opinion narrative that it’s trying to create while at the same time having its members refuse to be held accountable publicly for in-game actions?
Keith Law: It’s beyond hypocritical; it’s embarrassing. I don’t know if MLB did anything beyond the statement they issued criticizing the tweet, but I hope behind the scenes they made clear that the umpires should not be speaking that way about players. It’s hard to imagine Machado getting fair treatment from umpires the rest of the season.

Aiden: I FINALLY got a copy of Wingspan (without paying $100 on eBay). Do you have a favorite number of people to play it with?
Keith Law: Three is a bit smoother than four.

Joe: Did the Yankees make the right decision picking Gleyber over Eloy in 2016 (not that there is a wrong decision given how little they gave up)?
Keith Law: I had Gleyber over Eloy at the time and would still say so.

Joe: Keith, I was the one who asked you if it was time to worry about Matt Manning about a year ago after another one of his then-patented 6 BB outings. Anyway he went on to walk like 10 guys total the rest of the year. No question, just here to turn myself in.
Keith Law: Nah, he really changed in the second half last year. The Tigers really did great work giving him a proper delivery he could repeat, and one that gave him extension over his front side that made use of his 6’6″ frame. That’s the reason he threw more strikes and his CB got better.

Craig: With London banning sharp tip knives now, along with the numerous studies showing more (legal) guns = less crime, are you ready to walk back your calls for more gun control?
Keith Law: No, troll, because there are numerous studies showing more legal guns equals more gun deaths. Take this shit to 4chan.

Tom: Are tool grades similar to bell curve standard deviations? How much better is a 55 tool than a 50 hit tool?
Keith Law: They might be so in theory, but they are not in practice.

Mark: If you were Preller would you have rather spent 3 million in Hudson Head or a similar amount on Maurice Hampton?
Keith Law: Hampton for me. But it sounds like he just didn’t want to play, and after Kyler Murray, could you blame anyone for backing off a player who shows some preference for football?

Adam: Is it time to worry about Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson, and Kolby Allard for Atlanta fans?
Keith Law: No on the first two. Allard just is what he is.

John: Just curious if you ever listen to the Joe Rogan podcast or have any opinion of him one way or the other? Thanks
Keith Law: I haven’t.

Ray: What fish do you like to grill, and what is a favorite preparation?
Keith Law: I don’t typically grill fish because it is so hard to keep it from sticking to the grates (and methods I’ve seen to prep the grates are so much work). I’d rather sear salmon and finish it in the oven, or just pan-sear trout.

John: I read someone compare Jack Leiter to Mike Leake with slightly better stuff. Would you agree with that assessment?
Keith Law: Better CB than Leake. Leake was more of a kitchen-sink guy in college who could really sink the two-seamer.

Jimmy: Brennen Davis of the Cubs, SSS or potential breakout?
Keith Law: Both of these things can be true at the same time. It’s a tiny sample, but he’s also a great athlete and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he blew up this summer.

Marco: I imagine if I met you in person you would be extremely similar to Captain Raymond Holt off of Brooklyn Nine-Nine if you’ve ever seen it.
Keith Law: I love that show, but he’s deadpan and rarely laughs or smiles. I’m the opposite, at least in the company of people I know.

eric: it seems that basically every gop representative and senator is brainwashed. like, they literally were asking about hilary’s emails in yesterday’s hearing about the russian interference in the elections. are they all bad-faith actors or evil or …
Keith Law: And our only recourse is to vote other people in, whether it’s Democrats, or the few Republicans who have shown independent thinking and may still represent the views of center-right voters.

Anchen: Do you think teams will continue to move toward 13 pitchers on the 25 man roster? Or even more? Or does it make sense to go back to 12 at all?
Keith Law: I think the 13-man pitching staff is here to stay. I hate it, but the solution is probably another bench spot.
Keith Law: Sorry, another roster spot to accommodate another bench spot – so I’m saying a 26-man roster with a cap on 13 pitchers.

Brian: Regarding Rocker getting abused a few weeks ago, do teams factor in the past history of college managers when ranking pitchers?
Keith Law: They factor the use of specific pitchers more than the history of coaches. I do know that teams steered away from pitchers from coaches/schools with severe histories of abusing pitchers, like Graham at Rice.

Chris: Regarding grilling fish, America’s Test Kitchen recommends mixing honey (for browning) with mayo (to prevent sticking), neither of which you can taste.
Keith Law: You wouldn’t taste honey? That seems unlikely.

John: What does it say about MLB teams that players have to buy equipment like Rapsodo etc. on their own in the offseason to try and get better? Why wouldn’t they provide them with all available resources to make their org. better? Or am I missing something?
Keith Law: Some do, I think. is that really universal?

John: What is meant by a “prep” player? Is it used interchangeably with high school?
Keith Law: Yes.

Aubrey: I wasn’t saying you thought Alvarez was terrible, I just wondered if your opinion of him was higher than it was before the season. If so, I know sample size is small, so maybe scouting wise you saw something you liked more.
Keith Law: Nope, same guy, all bat, not a great long-term projection to the body, huge power.
Keith Law: I can’t tell who’s just asking about a player versus who’s saying nyah nyah nyah.

Kevin: Could Tatis be Mike Trout good?
Keith Law: As much as I’d enjoy that, I’m not saying any player is going to be Mike Trout good. That’s a level of good beyond any good I’ve seen in my lifetime.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thanks as always for your questions. I should be back for another chat next Thursday or Friday depending on game schedules. Also, I have a talk & book signing on July 8th at the Hudson Library & Historical Society just outside Cleveland. I hope to see some of you there!

Magpie Murders.

Anthony Horowitz created one of my favorite television series of all time, the magnificent British mystery show Foyle’s War, which stands well on its own but also comes across as a loving homage to the golden age of mysteries, with its gentleman detective D.C.S. Foyle and solutions drawn as much from psychology as from unearthing clues. He’s also been tabbed by the estates of Arthur Conan Doyle and Ian Fleming to write novels using those authors’ signature characters, including the Sherlock Holmes novel Moriarty, which I found a quick read but unfaithful in style to the Conan Doyle novels and too reliant on a huge twist for its resolution. He’s also written three standalone novels of original characters, of which Magpie Murders is one, and it’s every bit as brisk and compelling … but this time, the twists work incredibly well, and the reader is rewarded with two different mysteries to solve.

Magpie Murders presents us with a Poirot-like detective, the Holocaust survivor Atticus Pünd, who has both the little Belgian’s dispassionate approach to solving murders and endearing arrogance, drawn against his first instincts into a pair of murders in a small English town full of eccentric but well-defined characters. Pünd is also dying of an inoperable brain tumor, and this is almost certain to be his last case, but this seems to motivate him further to solve it rather than dwell on his imminent death. The murders are linked more by place than by method or motive, adding to the complexity, and as is typical of mysteries of the era Horowitz evokes, everyone had a reason to want the latter victim dead.

The novel runs over 400 pages, which is quite long for the genre (in my experience, only Dorothy Sayers’ Lord Peter Wimsey novels reached that length), but that’s because there’s a second mystery wrapped up in the first one, and I won’t spoil it here. The first narrative breaks right before Pünd appears ready to reveal the solution, and you’re plunged into a totally different story, written in a more modern tone and involving a new set of characters, one where it isn’t even clear that a murder has taken place. (I don’t think it’s a spoiler to say, yes, there was a murder, because otherwise why would Horowitz even engage in this bit of metafiction?) The gambit here is that the end of the Pünd novel is missing, and the new narrator has to find the absent chapters to solve the mystery, which leads to a discovery of a murder and a conclusion that is more conventional for mysteries set in the last few decades. The marvel here is that Horowitz has nested two distinct, connected stories told in two entirely different voices, each mirroring a particular style of mystery novels – one from the golden era, one more contemporary – without ever ripping the reader out of the spell of the entire enterprise.

The twin payoffs here – I guessed the identity of the murderer in the inner story, but not in the Pünd one – help justify the book’s length, and Horowitz, who has eschewed the idea that this is an homage to Agatha Christie (even though her real-life grandson, Mathew Pritchard, appears as a character in the inner story), does capture the essence of the grande dame’s prose and structure. Unlike Moriarty, where the gimmick relied on fooling the reader from the beginning, the twist here is unforced and gives the reader a fair chance to follow what’s happening. As a Poirot fan (over Miss Marple), I was particularly pleased to follow Pünd, who is very much a Poirot surrogate in the novel, although he lacks the flourishes of the fastidious man’s mustache or ze little grey cells. Perhaps Horowitz is better when creating his own characters, even those which clearly draw from the icons of the genre, than when trying to work with the icons themselves.

Next up: Still reading Salman Rushdie’s The Satanic Verses.

Fates and Furies.

Lauren Groff’s Fates and Furies was nominated for a National Book Award in 2015, losing to Adam Johnson’s short story collection Fortune Smiles, and was widely praised as her best work to date. This intricate, profound novel about a marriage as the intersection of two lives presents that intersection from two distinct and often contradictory perspectives, a story that is beautifully told and that gripped me more the further I read.

The first part of the book, titled “Fates” – ten points if you can guess the title of the second part – introduces us to Lancelot, nicknamed Lotto, born in the eye of a hurricane and in some ways a very lucky child. He’s wealthy beyond measure before he’s finished his first cry, and as time passes it will become clear that he’s blessed with good lucks and great talent as a writer, but even someone born lucky doesn’t get a life free of worry, sorry, or even some bad fortune too.

After years of diffident debauchery, with a handful of broken hearts among the many women who sought his company and only got sex, Lotto sees Mathilde walk into a party right near the end of his college years, walks towards her and immediately asks her to marry him. A few weeks later they do indeed wed, and then live as starving artists – his vengeful mother, more fury than fate to be sure, cuts him off when she learns of the marriage – while he tries to find work as an actor and she works in advertising and then in an art gallery to keep them afloat. A real stroke of luck reveals his talent as a writer, and he becomes an acclaimed playwright for going on two decades until the fairy tale and part one both end.

Furies tells the same story from Mathilde’s side, and the trees we could not make out while standing in the forest are clear and sharp when viewed from above. Mathilde’s childhood isn’t what Lotto believed, and much of what he thought was fate was anything but. She’s a stronger character than the subservient wife we see in Fates, and angrier at a life that did not give her any fortune other than perhaps some physical beauty. Mathilde had to scratch and claw for nearly everything she got in life before Lotto, and then had to work twice as hard as he ever did to keep them going during his lean years as an actor, and then plays far more of a role in his writing career than the first part lets on. The first part is the veneer, and the second the solid wood beneath. It is stronger, but it’s not as pretty. Once the revelations start spilling, they come fast, and they frequently upend your impression of one or both main characters.

The parallel structure of the two parts mirrors the dichotomy of the title, but also presents the “two sides to every story” bromide in a new light by giving primacy to Mathilde’s side. The Greek Fates were three goddesses who determined the length of a mortal’s life, but did not concern themselves with what went on during that life. Lotto’s story feels like one mapped out by the Fates – very little of his life appears to be directed by outside forces, and while there’s luck from the circumstances of his birth, reading part one gives you the sense that he is the prime mover in his own universe, right up until the thread spun by the Fates is cut.

That’s not true, of course, but Groff saves the explanation until Furies, when it becomes clear that Mathilde’s machinations were responsible for much of what happened to Lotto, right down to their not-coincidental first meeting, from college onward. So much of her life is driven by vengeance, whether directly aimed at someone else or in the vein of “living well is the best revenge,” which is a major part of the mythology of the Greek Furies. (Wikipedia describes them as underworld deities of vengeance.) Once widowed, she’s determined to become the protagonist of her own life for the first time, yet becomes even more driven by the desire for revenge, especially when she realizes that one longtime acquaintance went out of his way to try to sabotage her marriage to Lotto.

The plot itself is intricate and almost immediately compelling, with so much realistic detail that it’s hard to believe one person conceived both of these characters’ lives. Groff’s character development, even with several of the side characters like Lotto’s family and childhood friends, is superb, both in interest and credibility. Lotto being a playwright is a bit more of the writers writing about writers problem, and I found it hard to buy into the idea of him becoming so financially successful or even moderately famous in that line of work, but if you get past that, much of what follows is plausible, and his vocation allows Groff to work in endless literary references (only a few of which I caught).

Groff ends the novel with a revelation that explains much of what went before, and even casts doubt on some parts of the story, but in a way that also opens up a whole series of questions that you might have felt were answered by the two parts. It’s a gimmick, but she executes it well, and if anything it seemed to underscore some of the questions posed over the course of Furies around the choices Mathilde made in trying to create a far better life for herself than the one lowercase-f fate has offered her. It’s a brilliant, incisive, deeply philosophical work that moves like popular fiction but still has me thinking a few weeks after I finished.

Next up: Salman Rushdie’s The Satanic Verses. Acintya bheda bheda fatwa.

Stick to baseball, 6/16/19.

I had one ESPN+ piece this week, looking at which teams just drafted their new #1 or #2 prospects in last week’s draft.

On July 8th, the day after the MLB Futures Game, I’ll be speaking at the Hudson Library in Hudson, Ohio, about Smart Baseball and signing books.

My free email newsletter is back, at least in the sense that I’ve sent it out twice in the last two weeks, so maybe sign up for that too.

And now, the links…

Azul: Stained Glass of Sintra.

Azul was my #1 game of 2017 and remains a huge favorite in my house for so many reasons – simple mechanics, high interaction, appealing components, solid play for two players and for four, and the most important fact: it’s a lot of fun. The game was such a huge hit that the designer and Next Move games have released a spinoff game, Azul: Stained Glass Of Sintra, that borrows about half of the mechanics of the original but asks players to achieve different goals, creating a slightly longer game but one I find just as entertaining.

The basics of Azul: Stained Glass Of Sintra are identical to the original. Tiles in five colors are placed on platforms in the center of the table, four per platform, and on a turn, each player takes all of the tiles of one color from a platform. Remaining tiles go to the center, from which players may also take tiles. As the round progresses, players then have to weigh the potential of getting stuck with tiles they can’t place, which also carries a penalty – this time, one that increases as the game goes on, rather than resetting every round.

Here, players have unique boards of eight columns of five spaces in different combinations of those colors. The player places as many of the tiles they’ve taken in a single column, moving their personal glazier token to that column. Once a column is filled, the player places one of the tiles on his board below the columns, discards the rest, and scores: 1 to 4 points for that column, plus points for every column to the right of that one for which the player has scored at least once previously in the game, plus one point per tile matching the special tile color for that round.

When a player fills a column, they flip it to the other side, which contains a different pattern; once that side is filled, the column is removed entirely. The bottom board thus has two spaces under every column, and there are bonuses at game-end tied to how many of those spaces you fill and in where – two different sets of bonuses, depending on which side of the boards the players use. My preference is side A, which gives you bonuses of 3, 6, or 10 points per 2×2 square.

The original game is a good bit simpler and more streamlined than this game, which takes slightly longer to play, but also gives you more options than the first game did. In the first game, it was easier to get stuck with tiles you couldn’t place. Here, you have more spaces to fill and more options, plus a way to pass your turn by moving your glazier back to the first position (you can only places tiles under him or to his right), which factors into the calculus at the end of the round battle to avoid getting the shaft.

There’s an elegance to the original that’s missing in this game, but the play in this game is also more open-ended, so you will usually feel like you have more choices. I don’t know that this is really a distinct game from the original; it’s more like a new flavor of the same thing. Some folks like original recipe and some like extra crispy. If you loved the first Azul as I did, though, you’ll at least like this version. (You can also buy the original game here.)

Stick to baseball, 6/8/19.

Of course, most of my content this week was around this year’s MLB draft, but my biggest piece is actually free for everyone to read – my oral history of the drafting of Mike Trout, as told by the people who were there. For ESPN+ subscribers, you can read my draft recaps for all 15 AL teams and all 15 NL teams. I also held a Klawchat during day two of the draft and a live Periscope chat on Friday.

I really am trying to take time off this weekend, but I still plan to send out a new email newsletter to subscribers (it’s free, you just have to sign up) by Monday.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 6/4/19.

My recap of day one of the draft is up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: Do what I want, cause I can. Klawchat.

Max G.: Are the Astros being too smart for their own good?
Keith Law: Eh, that’s more judgmental than I’d like to be. I think they’ve chosen a philosophy of drafting that won’t work in the long run. If that’s true, they’ll realize it and change course.

Stanislav: Do you think that the Yankees will take a run at Jack Leiter, or that he’s dead set on Vandy?
Keith Law: Seems like that ship has sailed.

Bill G: Do you see Jarren Duran as a viable replacement for JBJ in the Boston OF? Thanks!
Keith Law: Too soon to say that. He’s a legit prospect, though.

Bob Pollard: What are your thoughts on the Cubs #1 pick, not so much his ability but was he selected in the appropriate spot?
Keith Law: I had him ranked 32nd in the class, and they took him 27th.

List-O-Mania!: On the spectrum of wildly overdrafted to hidden gem, where do you see Korey Lee ultimately falling? Might the Astros be thinking that his bat will play, and their emphasis on framing will get him far enough up the catching curve to stick there?
Keith Law: I think it’s a real reach. Wild overdraft.

alb2tead34: Ryan Garcia seemed like a guy with a lot of late helium. Was he a reach for the Rangers at 50, or is the high spin rate FB what teams are looking for now?
Keith Law: Not a reach. Taking a guy at 50 who wasn’t on the top 100 might be, but this wasn’t. Teams do love high spin rate FB. Also, the Rangers need pitching, and Garcia was one of the better college starters available at that pick.

Paul: If the Mets can sign their top three picks then I think they have had a great draft. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I agree. I do not believe they took Allen without knowing what it would cost to sign him. They’ve followed him up with two college seniors who’ll probably sign for $10K or something similar so they can pay Allen what he wants.
Keith Law: The Astros just took their first guy from my top 100 – Hunter Brown, a Division 2 starter who’s been up to 98 with an average slider. Good pick in that spot, but funny that that’s probably the highest-ranked guy they’ll take.

Aaron C.: You’ve called this the “worst pitching draft” in your 18 years involved with it. So, what year got dethroned, sir?
Keith Law: I’d have to think about that one; this is substantially worse than any I can remember. The 2006 draft felt that way at the time, but produced Kershaw and Lincecum.
Keith Law: Sorry, 2006 felt like a weak pitching draft, not as weak as this year’s though.

Adam D.: In your opinion, are Hunter Bishop’s swing and miss issues fixable? And based on that, how likely is he to reach his ceiling? Thanks for all the hard work!
Keith Law: Yes. I think guys who show this kind of progress in tightening their plate discipline are prime candidates to continue to improve. That’s the difference between Joey Gallo and Seuly Matias.

Simon: At what round of the draft do you usually first ask yourself, “Who?”
Keith Law: Until they said “a catcher from the University of California” I blanked on Lee. Once the college seniors start in round 4 I’m not even expecting to know half the names.

Tom: The Mariners have a 18 year old DH in AAA named Robert Perez who hasn’t played above the DSL. He’s hitting okay, but it seems like an absurd jump for someone without much hype. What is going on there? Are they trying to juice his value by juking the stats on age-relative-to-league models? Is he a sleeper superprospect?
Keith Law: No, just a temporary assignment. Certainly great to see that he’s not totally overwhelmed by the jump, though. I think most guys would be.

mibreli: How far outside your top 100 was Korey Lee? Also, is there any reason to believe that this year’s collective crop of catchers drafted in the first round can buck the historical trend of catchers drafted in the first round not panning out?
Keith Law: He wasn’t even a remote consideration; I don’t keep ranking guys privately but I would comfortably say he wasn’t in the next 50.

Simon: Do you ever play legacy type games, like Gloomhaven?
Keith Law: I play legacy games like Charterstone and Pandemic, but not RPGs like Gloomhaven.

Nate: Keith, it is very strange to see the White Sox drafting players high up on your board. Does this indicate a change in strategy or are you secretly advising Rick and Nick?
Keith Law: Definitely not advising them, and I don’t think they need my help either. Really strong draft for them so far.

G: Are the Pirates first two picks (Priester and Siani) expected to go over slot, or are all of their seeming under-slot selections of day 2 thus far saving up for 10th round and after guys?
Keith Law: Maybe both. I think Siani is over slot for sure.

Bret: I know you’re high on Alek Manoah. What is it that, you hope, will separate him from the other big, large SPs that haven’t reached their perceived potential?
Keith Law: Not sure which guys you might mean. Manoah’s well put together; that weight isn’t fat or just heft. His delivery works, he throws strikes, he has four pitches.

Sandy Eggo: Any signability concerns with Hudson Head? Or should the pick of Mears help with $$ a little bit for the Padres
Keith Law: Head will be over slot but 99% of the time teams do not draft players without knowing what it will cost to sign them and making sure they have that pool space. I doubt there have been more than a dozen players taken in the top ten rounds since the new system went into effect who went unsigned just because of money.

Dave: I’ve read that Tyler Baum’s stuff ticked up a few notches right before the draft? Did you hear that and what do you think about him?
Keith Law: That’s not right – what he did do late was hold the stuff deeper into games. I saw him at the ACC where he was still hitting 94-95 at the end of his outing, when earlier in the year he’d done so just for an inning or two up top.

Clay, Rutherford, NJ: Are the Cubs looking for 2019 bullpen help through the draft?
Keith Law: I believe they’re looking for 2020 bullpen help.

RJS: I’m sensing a theme among the Cubs picks so far, and I can’t say I’m disappointed. Fair to suggest they’ll try most of the pitchers taken through 5th round as starters or might McAvene stay in the pen and try to move up quickly that way? Thanks for the chats, KLaw.
Keith Law: McAvene has three pitches to start, but that does change his time frame and they may choose to move him faster as a reliever.

Dave: How should college baseball deal with pitcher overuse? Pitch counts? Appearance caps? Because we see yet more gross overuse again this postseason.
Keith Law: MLB should pull any support for college baseball until the NCAA agrees to abide by PitchSmart guidelines, including changing the draft rules to make players eligible at any time (after their freshman or sophomore years) unless the NCAA relents. MLB has all the leverage here.

Jeff: Do you think Soph elig Gabe Holt still goes today or is he going back to school?
Keith Law: I wonder if he told teams he didn’t want to sign. Obviously a top five rounds talent.

Sean: Yankees do a poor job drafting in these early rounds. Yes or no?
Keith Law: No. Liked the Sikkema pick a lot.

Eric: what power grade does Bleday have? can it transfer to MLB?
Keith Law: It’s plus and it will translate. He has exceptional hand/wrist strength.

Bradley: Love the James Beard pick for the White Sox on name alone. Outcome likely to be Terrance Gore? Billy Hamilton? Hopefully more?
Keith Law: Same org that turned Micker Adolfo from a workout phenom into an actual hitter. I give them a good chance here.

Greg: You seemed to like the Blue Jays’ first couple of picks. Does the addition of Robertson (who you ranked better than his draft position) make it a very successful first few picks?
Keith Law: Yep. Really like it so far.

Mike : Braves drafting looks off on paper. Is that your assessment? Have you heard anything on it so far?
Keith Law: Philip is the one pick i just do not understand. Not a day one guy, probably not a top three rounds guy.

JG: Did the Twins reach on Kavaco or is the potential worth the risk?
Keith Law: Both could be true, I think. There is plenty of potential there. I think there’s more hit tool risk than they do, obviously.

Brian: So are the Mets first 3 picks worth senior signs in rounds 4-10?
Keith Law: Yes.
Keith Law: Literally got the best HS pitching prospect in the draft – my rankings and MLB’s agree. Fangraphs had him behind Priester and I don’t have any dispute with that.

Rob : I ummm don’t understand the Padres draft after the first round. Regardless of the quality of their assessment it feel like they’re reaching for players they could’ve gotten later. thoughts?
Keith Law: I disagree. I think they may have gone under for Driscoll to help pay for Head.
Keith Law: #phrasing

Nate: When you say you feel like the Astros have chosen a draft philosophy you don’t think will work in the long run…is that tied into the big overhaul they’ve had with their scouting department in recent years?
Keith Law: You mean the elimination of their scouting department?

Simon: I know you quit beef, what are your thoughts on dairy milk alternatives? My infant son is allergic to dairy and soy, and we’ve been researching oat milk
Keith Law: Oat milk is extremely sweet, which has its pros and cons. I think cashew milk is my favorite all-purpose alternative, although it’s expensive (and should be).

Andy: Any more details on what caused teams to take Espino off their boards? Was this reflected in your rankings?
Keith Law: It was not reflected in my rankings because I heard it less than 24 hours before the draft. I would have moved him *way* down.

Chris: How fast can Baty move? Can he move up the ranks faster bc he’s already 19.5 or doesn’t matter?
Keith Law: I believe he can finish next year in high-A – that he’s strong enough and advanced enough as a hitter to do so. That would obviate the age concern.

Sean: I can’t find much, but some articles are suggesting that Conor Grammes (Xavier in Ohio) is hitting 98-100 MPH as a starting pitcher, sitting 94-97. How accurate is that?
Keith Law: He absolutely hit 100 mph in Arizona in February, but he can’t hit the broad side of a barn when he’s throwing that hard.

Kedelbro: Does Will Holland have any shot to get his swing back?
Keith Law: Yes.

Kevin: The Red Sox took Noah Song in the 4th round today. He’s from Navy with a 2 year commitment still. Is this just another guy who will get a 10k bonus?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s a $10K guy. The Red Sox must believe he’s going to be allowed to pitch, though, which isn’t really the history with Navy players.

Andrew Please: Dodgers seem to love drafting guys who strike out less than they walk. Is that something that is a bit overrated? If not, why aren’t other teams as interested in it?
Keith Law: Everyone’s interested in it, but many players who strike out less than they walk in college either 1) have no other real tools or 2) get there through passivity, because so few college pitchers can actually throw strikes consistently.

Sean: Anthony Volpe seems like he’s another SS the Yankees overdrafted. See; Cito Culver. Kyler Holder.
Keith Law: The Culver comp is the one that would scare me. The Yankees loved Culver’s makeup, and Volpe’s best tool appears to be his makeup (the real stuff – work ethic, instincts, etc.).

Dustin: Thanks for not dodging my abortion questions yesterday. Curious to know how you can justify your position that a child in the womb is not a human life? Science says it is. It’s life is dependent on another person, but so are all born children and many elderly.
Keith Law: You are either purposely misrepresenting the science, or refusing to understand it. That is a false analogy of epic proportions.

Jared: No question, just a comment that you should Periscope more often when you have the time. REALLY enjoyed last night’s and the ability to get so many questions answered.
Keith Law: Thank you, I’m glad you enjoyed it, but sorry I was so distracted by the broadcast. I tried to get the draft show on my iPad but MLB seemed to have that blocked (or I just couldn’t figure it out in time). That might have made it smoother.

Dave: I just realized today that the Astros whiffed on both Aiken and Appell and they still have this much talent. Still hard to belive that two 1/1s just never made it.
Keith Law: Well, Aiken became Bregman, so they really whiffed on just one, Appel, on whom the entire industry whiffed.

JR: Quintana a legitament power threat?
Keith Law: No. Better as a high-average/all-fields guy.

James: I’m curious, how do teams determine who are guys they can sign for under slot deals?
Keith Law: It’s a really weird, complex process where they ask the players how much money they want.

Benny from Boston: Jordan Groshans’ older brother Jaxx to Boston. Any family resemblance on the diamond?
Keith Law: No. Saw Jaxx in February, picked in the right spot, but he’s not Jordan (who has come out of the gate *really* strong).

Rob K: IDK, man. Trusting the Mets to do something rational when 1. their GM has no draft room experience and 2. they’re the Mets feels like a bad bet.
Keith Law: Unfair. Seems like the GM has let their amateur scouting department do their thing – and given that group’s track record, that’s the right move. Kelenic, Dunn, Alonso, Smith, Kay, Peterson, Vientos, Woods-Richardson, Szapucki – Tanous/Tremuta have drafted those guys.

mark: who’s has better speed, Xavier Edwards or CJ Abrams?
Keith Law: Abrams by quite a bit.

Brett: Seems like the twins were going for high upside high risk guys, Would you make Wallner a SP or RF?
Keith Law: He doesn’t want to pitch.

Max G.: Re: Astros draft philosophy; How would you define it?
Keith Law: 10011100101000100111001 11010001 1111010011101110100101001010.

Drew: What can we expect out of Haseley? Too soon for the call up?
Keith Law: I’m not buying this ‘breakout.’
Keith Law: Swing was awful when I saw him last year.

Tom Y: Do you think the yankees took Volpe with the idea that if he doesnt sign, its not the end of the word to have two picks and extra slot money in a better draft next year?
Keith Law: No. Teams don’t do that.

Matt: What did you think of Will Holland falling as far as he did?
Keith Law: I think Auburn bears some blame for this. Good value in that round though.

Brendan: What the hell are the Pirates doing? Seems like Gorski was a significant overdraft and they don’t have any track record of helping guys with swing and miss problems (e.g. Casey Hughston and Dylan Busby). Then today they take middling college relievers at 4 and 5. Talk some sense into me, please.
Keith Law: I think their draft was focused on the top two guys, who both were high-ceiling high school kids who have more polish than your typical upside plays.

Tom: Is Song signable for the Red Sox?
Keith Law: Are you asking if he’ll sign for a … never mind.

BigDaddeh: Are we waiting until the draft is over to get a Keuchel or Kimbrel signing?
Keith Law: No, they could sign now.

Matt: Where would Noah Song be on your top 100 if not for his two year navy commitment? First round talent being floated around by Red Sox twitter is too aggressive, right?
Keith Law: Absolutely not a first round talent. Seems like fan talk.

Mas: Hair notwithstanding, your mock drafts put Mel Kiper to shame. Your top 7 picks were all spot on. Kudos, draft expert!
Keith Law: Still annoyed I switched Texas from Jung to Manoah. I may have put too much of my own beliefs (Manoah was clearly the better pick) into that one.

Gus: Is there anything stopping a player that is playing in the CWS from quitting his team to go play for the team that drafted him? Therefor saving himself from getting injured or overused by his college manager who no longer cares about him after the CWS
Keith Law: Nothing, and I wish a player would do it.

BigDaddeh: 1% chance of Vaughn raking in AA this year and getting the call to replace Alonso for the Sox playoff push?
Keith Law: No.

nelson: there is so much information online these days about mlb prospects. it’s hard to tell what is informed and what is not. any tips?
Keith Law: The people who are paid to do this work full-time are reliable, in my opinion. Setting myself aside, the guys at MLB and Fangraphs and Baseball America are really the only sources I read and trust. I know those guys personally and while we differ in approach, we all take our responsibilities seriously and work hard to provide good, informed opinions and information.

Guest: Is jahmai Jones still a prospect? 2 straight years of struggles.
Keith Law: Yes, of course he’s still a prospect. He’s only 21.
Keith Law: He’s younger than Kody Hoese and just a few months older than Langeliers, Busch, Davidson, and Shewmake, but Jones is in AA.

Brian: When do you expect to start to get questions on whether or not a first round pick will sign? Father’s Day week? 4th of July week? Today? Yesterday?
Keith Law: Today. And I will pretty much ignore them all after this chat because nearly all drafted players in rounds 1-10 sign unless they flunk their postdraft physicals.

Wade: Would a team draft me in the first 10 rounds if I would sign for $1 so they could have $9,999 extra towards their bonus pool over a college senior or is the body/actual roster spot worth more than the money at that value?
Keith Law: MLB would void it and penalize the team.

Anik Patel: Thoughts on Blue Jays drafting Canadian talent?
Keith Law: Dasan Brown is legit. No issue taking him in that spot – he’s a real prospect and that wasn’t homerism (hoserism?).

JG: Is 3/$42 million too much for Kimbrel?
Keith Law: I’d give him 2/$30 million rather than the third year.

Todd: Your thoughts on the transition from aluminum to wood bats? Fiction or truth?
Keith Law: Is what fiction or truth?

BigDaddeh: Louisville guy pitching 30 pitches after throwing 95 days earlier. How bad?
Keith Law: Bad. Could have been much worse, though.

Beetlejuice: Reds with a low risk college arm to start then 3 projectable bats after that. Like what they’re doing thus far?
Keith Law: Loved it.

Tim: Where do you see Drake Fellows going? He has out pitched several of the other SEC arms off the board already
Keith Law: “Outpitched” doesn’t mean anything at all. Anyway, Fellowes went in the 6th after you submitted this.

Andy: Houston could have gotten their catcher with their second pick right? There’s no one you heard on the guy even after the first round right?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Nate: Did callihan’s lack of position hurt him more than you thought it would?
Keith Law: I think so, although I don’t know if he floated a big bonus demand.

Sean: The Dbacks seem to be drafting “short” hitters the past two years: Alek Thomas last year and Corbin Carroll and Glenallen Hill Jr. this year. Are they exploiting an inefficiency in the market?
Keith Law: Seems like it. Short but strong hands/wrists/forearms is good. Short and slight is not.

Aaron C.: Can you provide some general examples of draftees who had “questions about their hit tool” but figured it out in pro ball?
Keith Law: Matt Chapman is the most obvious contemporary example.

Gaga: What were your thoughts on Kendall Williams?
Keith Law: All my thoughts on day one guys are in the ESPN post linked above. I’ll have team by team recaps up Thursday and Friday.

John: Is Keoni Cavaco an under slot pick? Seems like he got picked higher than he was on your and your competitors boards.
Keith Law: Don’t think so – he had other suitors in the teens.

Paul: When trying to rank Song, how do you factor in his Navy commitment? 4th round risk worth taking for the Red Sox?
Keith Law: Yes 4th round is fine. Just object to people claiming he’s some secret first round talent.

Uli Jon: I know this is a draft chat, so understand if you don’t get to this. But looking for a 2 player game for long airplane flights this summer. Low to moderate with not too many pieces. My family has patience for Azul and Love Letters, something like that but plays better with two.
Keith Law: Jaipur, Lost Cities, Battle Line. Patchwork is great but don’t think you could play it on two tray tables.

Xander: Sox draft two SS after signing me to a long-term deal. Am I worried, or are they position-switch candidates?
Keith Law: These two things are not related in the least. You draft the best players.
Keith Law: Also, Cam Cannon isn’t a shortstop.

Pat: If 2018 draft was re-done today, would Mize still be 1-1? Safe to say Kelenic would be 2nd pick?
Keith Law: He might be … but several first rounders from last year are off to great pro starts. Bohm, Groshans, G Rodriguez, Gilbert.

Mark: Regarding you comment on Baty in yesterday’s chat. Please tell me you are aware of the epidemic that is the amount of parents holding their student-athletes back to repeat a grade strictly for athletic reasons? Not saying that is the case here, but if he repeated 7th or 8th grade then that would be why.
Keith Law: I am, but have no idea if that was the case for Baty, and I said on Twitter to someone asking that it’s really none of our business *why* he’s 19.5 at graduation.

Bob: Preller has taken a pitcher with the 1st pick every year as the Padres GM, thought for sure he’d do it again, especially with Lodolo on the board.
Keith Law: No, I knew they were taking one of the big 6 bats.
Keith Law: Right move in that spot.

BigDaddeh: Who are some big names to watch in the 11th round once teams can start taking some more long shots?
Keith Law: I think someone will take Leiter, Hampton, Stewart, etc. Just secure their rights in case they change their minds.

John: I hear you on the PitchSmart guidelines, but baseball also has some pretty vocal adherents (Verlander, Bauer) to a school of thought that rejects those guidelines.
Keith Law: Yeah those guys don’t actually run the league.

Fran: Will Bryson Stott stay at SS or move to 3B?
Keith Law: No doubt SS for me.

Andrew: Will Joe Palumbo make the mid season top 100 now that he is proving it on his comeback from TJ?
Keith Law: The healthy guys from my “just missed” list are probably all on the top 100 now … just not Dunning or Graterol, since they’re hurt.

Andy: I know it’s dead horse beating, but I wonder if the Mets wouldn’t be better served NOT spending 160 AAA ABs, so far this year, on a guy who can’t be a serviceable MLB OF.
Keith Law: You’d think so, and yet, here we are.

Alan: How much stock do you put on pedigree? Seems like having family who played in MLB boosts you up a few rounds.
Keith Law: It helps with some teams. I don’t think it makes a prospect better, but it’s more interesting for me as a writer.

mc90: If we can mix in board game questions, any suggestions on good 2 player games?
Keith Law: See above but if you don’t have a space limitation 7 Wonders Duel is pretty incredible.

Seth: Any strong opinions on the Michigan trio that got drafted in the first few rounds? It’s nice to see the alma mater have some baseball success
Keith Law: Couple of potential back-end starters there in Henry and Kaufffffmannnn.

Brad: Plesac a future #2? He looks really good
Keith Law: He’s good but I think the ceiling is below that.

Brian: RE: Tom Y’s question about Volpe, what stops a team from intentionally not signing a 1st round pick to be able to use that pick the next year?
Keith Law: The player would file a grievance and MLB would not grant the compensatory pick. Too many fans think they can outsmart the system as if teams and the league haven’t already thought about all of this.

Welch: I saw on the MLB Top 200 Draft Prospects article that they only have 1 kid from the state of Oklahoma. As a current resident, do you know who that is?
Keith Law: Bryce Osmond was the only Oklahoma kid on my top 100. Probably him.
Keith Law: Also, he’s the only missing Osmond sibling to make my list.
Keith Law: Man, someone has to play “One Bad Apple” as his walkup music.

Shaughn: With a prospect like Brooks Lee still on the board – do we assume he has a strong commitment or that the industry doesn’t have the same perceived value?
Keith Law: He’s made it clear he’s going to school to play for his dad.
Keith Law: Ask him how that worked out for Kyle Serrano.

LGM: Do any of these Mets senior signers stand out to you at all?
Keith Law: No. Senior signs are almost always org guys.

Philip: Long-time reader and major fan of your analysis. Quick question and not draft related, but if a team used older catchers in a tandem, let’s say 81 games each, would that create a better or similar outcome than paying an elite catcher? I’d think two catchers in their 30s could be refreshed from a lighter work load (thinking of Flowers and McCann), and be significantly cheaper than a Realmuto type of catcher.
Keith Law: Probably depends on the players. Some guys would be better with the days off, most wouldn’t, I think.

Sandy Eggo: Can we get a #FreeLuisUrias in the chat to appease #PadresTwitter
Keith Law: I want to be the president of that club.

John: If you were advising a teenager who is equally talented as a pitcher and as a position player, which would you tell him to focus on? Or would you try to have him go 2-way?
Keith Law: Two variables. What does he want to do, and what do teams value more highly? If the world says you’re a pitcher, then get on the mound, son.

Aaron C.: MLB Network’s draft coverage: all the talking! occasionally some draft picks!
Keith Law: I knew time dilation was real, but never experienced it until MLB Network took eleven minutes to get through a five-minute break.

Bill: Fiction: aluminum bats cannot transition to wood.
Keith Law: Well, no, that would be alchemy.

The Internet: WHY ISN’T YOUR 2020 MOCK DRAFT AVAILABLE YET?!!?!?!?!?!
Keith Law: Stop that.

Henry: Keith, just want to say thank you for all of the incredible amount you invested in the draft, including the late night ESPN team post which was excellent and informative.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I worked hard (and late) to make that a longer post this year, so fans of every team had something to read.

Brian: (insert joke about Keith having a short bias)
Keith Law: My bias is not short. It’s like a long, sharp sword.

Brian: Last week you didn’t seem to disagree with a guy who said clutch-ness isn’t a thing. But doesn’t that go against what psychology teaches us? Some people perform better under the most intense pressure than do others. Wouldn’t this apply to sports just like it does medicine, politics, law, etc?
Keith Law: I go with evidence. The evidence says that MLB players do not perform significantly differently in “clutch” situations. It is possible or even likely that players who wilt in those situations never reach the majors, since they face pressure when they’re being scouted and all the way up the minors. But there is no such thing as a “clutch hitter” in the majors, and if you think there is, well, come correct with some facts.

Chris: Just noticed that Hunter Bishop is still just 20y/o. Won’t turn 21 for 3 weeks. Does the fact that he played the entire year at 20 help his projection like Baty’s age hurt him?
Keith Law: Yes.

Tim : I am no scout but even to this amateur eye, Rutledge has one of the shortest arm deliveries I can recall ever seeing. Is this something to be concentrated about?
Keith Law: Teams were concerned about his short arm swing and lack of athleticism. On the other hand, he might have a 7 fastball and 7 slider.

Michael: How does Manoah compare to Mize?
Keith Law: I’m very high on Manoah but Mize is a potential #1 starter with two swing and miss pitches and plus command.
Keith Law: Mize is the best RHP prospect in the minors right now.

Bill: Is there anything to Kevin Newman’s improvement? I know you were high on him out of the draft
Keith Law: I’m chalking it up to the teamwide improvements from hitters now that they changed coaches & approach – don’t think they’re so keen on contact/going the other way as they were in years past.

Joe: On MLB radio today I heard an analyst mention that because of advanced training techniques, more young players will make it to the big leagues sooner. Basically, that much of the training that used to be done in the minors is now being done in high school and college. I was curious to hear your take on this.
Keith Law: False.

Howey: Last night Harold Reynolds said that Jackson Rutledge’s short arm action was probably fine because “catchers throw like that and who’s heard of a catcher getting Tommy John?” I’m still getting over how wrong that statement is
Keith Law: I heard half of that sentence and thought I’d misunderstood the context.
Keith Law: I mean, catchers do have Tommy John, not even that infrequently.

Jeff: Best guess for MLB ETA for Luis Robert?
Keith Law: I think he’ll be up this year. Why not? If he bumps to AAA, keeps hitting, don’t you call him up and see if he can make the 2020 OD roster? I would.
Keith Law: OK, time to start those recaps and maybe walk outside for a minute. I have some personal travel next week and may not chat at all, but I’ll shoot for a Periscope tomorrow during day 3. Recaps go up Thursday and Friday, one league each day, and I’ll look at the new team #1 prospects in a piece next week as well. Thank you as always for all of your questions and the kind words on my draft content this week!

Klawchat 6/3/19.

Happy draft day! My latest mock is up for ESPN+ subscribers and I’m updating it throughout the day.

Keith Law: Play to get paid. It’s Klawchat.

PhillyJake: If the Pirates do indeed take Langeliers, will he make it to the majors before Cervelli’s next concussion? Seriously Cervelli should retire for his health. What is Langeliers’ guestimated arrival date?
Keith Law: I’d guess two years out. Defense is ready now. Still questions on the hit tool, but I think it’s reasonable to think he won’t race through the minors.

addoeh: Happy Klaw-smas! That would make late January’s prospect ranking release Klaw-nukah (because it is 8 days).
Keith Law: Can it be Klaw-purim, so then i get cookies?

Bill G: Thanks for all the work you do regarding the draft. How far would Adley drop if he was a 1B instead of a catcher? The bat still plays? Thanks!
Keith Law: Bat plays but he’s no longer 1-1; behind Vaughn and Bleday at least.

Frank Viola: I’m always curious where top international guys would slot in the draft, playing off of that thought – where would you *hypothetically* slot a player like Jasson Dominguez if int. players were draft eligible?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t. He’s 15 (maybe he turned 16 already) and you can’t compare him apples to apples to draft prospects. Unless you’re talking an Ohtani type, there’s no way the top J2 kid in the typical class would even be a first rounder when stacked up against kids who are 17-18 (HS) or 21 (college).
Keith Law: And Dominguez isn’t even a Vlad Jr or Wander Franco.

duhamell: Mason Janvrin at the University of Central Missouri (DII) is having a great season. Hearing lots of rumors here in Warrensburg, but is there any buzz on him?
Keith Law: Zero. D2 or lower bats have an enormous hill to climb to be taken seriously. There’s a kid at Shepherd University (also D2) named Brenton Doyle who got some early buzz because he also has tools, but his entire team is hitting .338/.434/.574.

alex: Could A. Vaughan play 3B credibly (Elias allegedly saw him take grounders there) if taken by the Os ? He apparently has a decent arm (he pitched in his freshman or sophomore year). Thanks
Keith Law: I wrote that the O’s looked at him at 3b. I doubt he can do it but I think it’s worth exploring.

J.P.: Chances Toglia’s name goes off the board in the first? If not, what’s his floor?
Keith Law: Very close to 0% chance.

Ben: Is Misner this draft’s biggest wildcard? How confident are you in his tools?
Keith Law: Bigger wildcards for me are kids like Leiter, Volpe, etc., who may be completely unsignable.

Larry: Are the Indians buyers, sellers or (more or less) “holders” in 2019? I still think they have a shot at a playoff spot, but certainly not bet the house on it.
Keith Law: Should be buyers, but they should have been buyers this winter and weren’t.

Ben: It’s Draft Day — 2020. Who are the top five names to go off the board?
Keith Law: No idea. Let’s survive this year first.

Niel: What is driving the Rangers’ move away from their previous tool-centric draft approach?
Keith Law: I speculated that they may be unhappy with some recent results from toolsy but raw picks high in the draft.

Jim: Not draft related, but I’m curious why there are no southpaw side-armers?
Keith Law: Of course there are.

Spencer: Have you had a chance to scout any of the international players that may be signing this summer? Who’s the cream of the crop?
Keith Law: I don’t cover that market. Jesse Sanchez at MLB does a tremendous job.

Jim: Predict for us – how many Day One guys won’t sign?
Keith Law: Figure two or three will fail their post-draft physicals. Last year we had two first rounders decline to sign for financial reasons – Ginn and McClain – but I think teams will be more conservative in the first round as a result.

Jim: Which of the Siani’s are you higher on? Does Sammy go off the board tonight?
Keith Law: Higher on Sammy, but I hear he may want first-round money, so that could push him to day two.

Mark: How is Brett Baty already 19.5 but still in high school?
Keith Law: I don’t know the specifics, but a kid could have to repeat a year for academic or medical reasons, or perhaps have been enrolled a year later for kindergarten because the parents were concerned he wasn’t ready.

Mark: If Baltimore does not take Rutchman or Witt, who would KC pick? Is there any way in hell Rutchman could fall to the Pads?
Keith Law: I think they’d take Rutschman. They don’t take Vaughn at 2; Bleday is option C, although when you pick 2 option C is sort of silly. There is no way Rutschman gets to the Padres.

Mark: Do you think the Pads could take Lodolo at 6 or are they going to take one of the top 6 hitters?
Keith Law: I’m still betting they take one of the big six.

Red: Just read Smart Baseball, I enjoyed thoroughly enjoyed your book. I imagine a lot of what MLB teams draft on is raw ability. But in your experience, do you find that clubs will split hairs and analyze college/high school players with advanced stats as well? Thanks, I’ll hang up and listen
Keith Law: Most clubs do some of both; the difference is in the balance between the two.

JAS: Is it possible that Espino gets to Houston, and they manage to harness his stuff and improve his mechanics and pitch selection to turn him into the best pitcher in this draft when we look back in 5 years?
Keith Law: It’s possible he gets to Houston, likely they pass on him, and I’d say basically no chance he ends up the best pitcher from this draft.

matt: Bishop/Kirby/Rutledge all feel like pretty good scenarios for the Phillies, and is the sense you’re getting that at least one will fall to them? Not that they would absolutely take one.
Keith Law: I will revise the mock after we’re done here, but they’re not taking Bishop (or the other two). I do think the Phils will get their choice of some pretty good options … Baty, Jung, Langeliers, Carroll if he slips, Wilson. I believe they like Henderson, but I’m lighter on him than the industry, I guess.

BigDaddeh: How much money do you think Shea Langeliers made yesterday?
Keith Law: None.

bombas: do you see the twins cutting a deal under slot?
Keith Law: I know they’ve considered it (why not?) but I think they go slot for Stott or Langeliers.

Esteban: Is Jack Leiter a first rounder if he was 100% certain to sign slot?
Keith Law: IMO, hell yes.

Darryl: How early do you think LHP Miller from Stanford goes? Anyone else likely to be drafted in the early rounds from the Farm?
Keith Law: Miller today. Second round. Others from Stanford are below that.

Adam: Has MLB considered moving the draft until after the college postseason? Not necessarily for additional evaluation (I believe you’ve mentioned the post season and CWS is not the best for that), but to give teams a chance to see what pitchers get abused during this period. Maybe if enough pitchers drop in draft position as a result, colleges, or at least the players, would take notice.
Keith Law: They have; the tradeoff is that it screws up all of short-season baseball, plus the summer leagues when teams scout for next year.

Joe: Pick outside the top ten you feel most confident about?
Keith Law: Hm. 11, 12, 17, 23, 24 … but any or all of those could be thrown off by a player slipping/someone up top cutting an under-slot deal.

Sean: How does the top 5 of this draft compare to recent years?
Keith Law: I think it’s a little weaker.

Adam: Knowing what we know now about Carter Stewart do the Braves have a chance to get a comparable talent?
Keith Law: If they take Carroll, as I had in my mock (if Manoah goes 8, Atlanta would choose between Carroll and Langeliers), they’re getting the #4 player on my board. Stewart, pre-injury etc., was my #2 player. So it’s not too far off.

Andrew V: Hey Keith, love all the work you do around draft time. What caused Bishop to fall a few spots from earlier mocks?
Keith Law: Teams concerned about in-conference performance and a decline in his throwing the last few weeks.

fact or fiction?: I saw Abrams mocked at #10 to the Giants, what are the chances he falls that far?
Keith Law: I don’t believe they’d consider him at all, but he could slip to the teens if the Padres don’t take him (which presumes 1-5 are chalk).

Bill: Hi Keith, thanks as always for the chats. They are my favorite shirking activity each week. Out of curiosity during your time in Toronto, did you have any role to play during the actual draft or were all picks and decision making up to the scouting directors, GM or other management at that point?
Keith Law: I was in the discussions every year but I never made any picks or really any decisions at all. Those were up to Ricciardi and Buckley/Lalonde (the scouting directors).

Jerome: Will you be doing a live video of the draft like last year?
Keith Law: Yes so enough of you asked for it that I’ll do a live Periscope chat (on twitter) starting at 7.

Jim: Best name in the draft?
Keith Law: That has to be Mississippi prep outfielder James Beard. They named a whole award after him!

Daniel: After you ranked him in the top 80, do you know of any teams in on Glenallen Hill Jr. tonight or do you expect him to fall to day 2?
Keith Law: He’s on the 2nd/3rd round bubble.

Ben: Do you think Miami has a lot more variability in what they do at 4 than most people are projecting? They’ve obviously shown a ton of interest in Bleday, but they’re always liable to something crazy or stupid. If so, the whole draft would be turned on its head
Keith Law: I hear a few other names but I am sticking with Bleday.

JR: I am surpised Hunter Bishop isnt being mocked to the Tigers at 5? Is that a reach?
Keith Law: That is a reach, given who else would be there.

Josh: Keith, have you gotten a chance to watch Fleabag yet?
Keith Law: Yes, halfway through S2. The best thing about the whole show is that the guy she sleeps with at the start of episode 1, who comes back in several more episodes, is only credited as “Arsehole Guy.”

Fake Jeremy Sowers: What do you think of JJ Bleday’s defense? I’m always wary of drafting someone on the lower end of the defensive spectrum.
Keith Law: Average to 55.

Gnubs: What’s with the decline in the draft success of the Nats front office? Just picking later in the draft? That didn’t seem to matter before as they picked up later round guys than just Strasburg and Harper.
Keith Law: Have they fared poorly? A few years ago they picked at the end of the first/sandwich and got Luzardo and Kieboom.

Kyle: Do you see any chance Mizzou’s T.J. Sikkema goes in the 1st round? Do you think there’s a chance he slips past Day 1?
Keith Law: Funny, that’s my stealth guy who might just sneak into the late first … I don’t think a lot of teams are on him, but there are clearly a few quietly considering him in the 25-40 range. If you want a college starter, he’s established himself as a legit option after the most famous tier is gone.

Brian: Hey Keith, thanks for doing this chat today. Do you think Jung would be a big overreach for SF at #10? I know you have him rated lower on your top 100.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t take him over the other available options there.

Devon: A few mocks and some chatter suggests that Abrams might be falling a bit? Any insight into why? Just clubs liking the other guys better / cutting deals to go under-slot?
Keith Law: Every scenario I think has a chance to happen right now is chalk 1-6 – the same six guys in different orders. That’s most likely the three college bats in the top 4, Witt 2, Greene 5, which would mean Abrams 6. If someone ahead of San Diego reaches down at all – e.g., the Tigers take Lodolo – then Abrams could slip and I don’t think teams behind San Diego are necessarily planning to take him.

Soto: If you had personally had a choice between Rutledge, Manoah, and Thompson…..who would you pick?
Keith Law: My Big Board ranking of the top 100 prospects in the class answers any of those questions. That’s my personal ‘pref’ list.

Kai: Any idea if it would take well over slot to get Brooks Lee to go pro instead of playing for his dad at Cal Poly?
Keith Law: He’s going to school. I have him ranked on talent, but I’m told he’s going to school, period.

Guest: Keith have you ever been asked to make an appearance on the draft? Maybe in Harold Reynolds role? (Kidding, kind of). If they did ask would you do it?
Keith Law: Of course I would, but because of where I work, it’s unlikely. Mayo and I wanted to do a podcast together about the draft but the powers that be scuttled it.

El Zilcho: How much do you think Stinson will ask for?
Keith Law: Off my top 100 entirely. He can’t really ask for anything more than slot wherever he’s taken given the spring he had. If he wants day one money he’ll have to get his fastball back.

Nick: You seem to be the most optimistic on Corbin Carroll’s power outlook. How many homers do you see him hitting annually?
Keith Law: He’s a 20+ guy for me. Maybe more. Alex Bregman has 48 homers since the start of 2018; I think Carroll has comparable hand strength.

Brian: Hey Keith, if the Giants take Jung at 10, would it likely be an under slot deal?
Keith Law: No.

Kyle: You’ve seen the “Rutschman is the best prospect since Harper” stuff, would he make your top-five draft prospects since 2010?
Keith Law: He might, but no way is he the best draft prospect since Harper. I hate that kind of hyperbole.

Belliard : Is Atlanta/Langeliers buzz increasing or staying steady?
Keith Law: I mentioned him in the mock – him or Carroll, given what I projected 1-8.

Jerome: Do you see the D-Backs drafting Leiter with one of their bazillion picks?
Keith Law: No.

Jim: Will you be doing one more mock before 7pm?
Keith Law: I’ll just keep updating the one that’s already up (I updated it once, I have more stuff to add after this chat).

Feejus: Enjoyed Smart Baseball as well as Mr. Brian Kenny’s “Ahead of the Curve
Keith Law: Thank you! Check out Russell Carleton’s The Shift.

Ignatius Reilly : Rece Hinds profile sounds similar to that of Joey Gallo, the best Rangers first round pick in the Daniels era — could they go back to the well with Hinds at 41/50, or do you think he’s off the board then
Keith Law: Hinds isn’t Gallo. Gallo is a way better athlete, for starters.

Pat: Someone on MLBN just said that Adley and Witt are the best 1-2 he’s ever seen. Why does the crazy train seem to be firing on all cylinders this year? I don’t see how it’s helpful to speaking hyperbolically about these players. Is there a ratings/click strategy to some of this, perhaps? All it does in my opinion is create unrealistic expectations for the fans (So Adley will be a “bust” if he isn’t Bench, and Witt will be a “bust” if he isn’t A-Rod).
Keith Law: Yeah, I hate that … don’t market the draft by making every draft class into the best ever, because people will catch on and just stop listening. Talk about these players as they are.

Jessica: Hi, Keith! Huge fan! How much stock are you putting in the recent buzz that the Royals may now go with Bleday? What are the chances that Bleday falls to the Tigers?
Keith Law: I don’t have Bleday getting past 4, and I know he’s essentially the third option for KC. If, say, Baltimore took Witt (I doubt it) and KC had some concern over Rutschman’s medicals (unlikely), then they could take Bleday.

Jeff: Any chance of the underslot deal for Baty at 3 or 8?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard any real rumors to that effect, just twitter bullshit.
Keith Law: I like Baty a lot but hoo boy, passing on Vaughn at 3 for him?

RJ: ESPN homepage has a link to a Mock 3.1, but it’s time-stamped 7:05 a.m. I assume that’s still 3.0?
Keith Law: No, that’s 3.1 Ignore the timestamps.

Dusty: Can you clarify something? I was under the impression that if Atlanta fails to sign the #9 pick this year, that they would not receive a pick next year (since that pick was already compensation for Stewart from 2018). From what I’ve read today, I may have been mistaken. Do you know for sure what the rule is?
Keith Law: You are mistaken – Atlanta’s pick for Stewart, Arizona’s pick for McClain, and the Dodgers’ pick for Ginn are all protected, so if they don’t sign their picks this year, it rolls one more year. Next year’s compensatory picks would be unprotected.

Jeff: What round range do you expect Zach Huffins, Dalton Rushing, Quin Cotton, & Gabe Holt. Thank you!
Keith Law: Holt in the third; Cotton in the 4th, Huffins maybe 5th-8th (elite runner, not that advanced otherwise), no intel on Rushing.

Dallas: Maybe Langeliers gets a boost from that performance, Garrett Richards was helped in his last college outing by striking out 18 guys after putting up a 5.00 era during regular season.
Keith Law: He wasn’t, though. The Angels were already on him; it’s not like he suddenly threw harder or had a new pitch.

Sean: Did you make it up to see Siani this year? Draft position roughly where you had him ranked?
Keith Law: I saw him, but I don’t think my ranking reflects where he’ll go, since he could want more money than that.

Elliott: Who has the highest scouted tool in the draft? Vaughn’s power?
Keith Law: Greg Jones’ speed.

Andrew: Do you think Shewmake can stay at SS?
Keith Law: I do not.

Bob: Do you think Reds are in on H. Bishop or B. Stott ? Seem to prefer college hitters but not sure if they would value them over Lodolo/Manoah. Thanks
Keith Law: Neither.

Michael: What’s the logic behind JUCO players being eligible right away and others having to play three years?
Keith Law: Protecting college baseball. Why MLB would protect college baseball is beyond me – we still have coaches overusing pitchers and trying to get prospects to matriculate early so they skip the draft.

Mas: Which is more accurate – Keith Law is the Mel Kiper of baseball, or is Mel Kiper the Keith Law of football?
Keith Law: It depends on which of us you think has better hair.

Chuck: I’ve heard comps to Alex Kirilloff fair for Riley Greene. Fair or not?
Keith Law: I do hear huge praise for Greene’s hit tool.

Jeff: Keith – Any updates on players that could fall that LA could scoop up as they’ve done in the past (hopefully this time more Buehler than Kendall)?
Keith Law: This was a bit of why I think they’re a fit for Misner … huge tools, top ten type, who fell on some performance concerns that the Dodgers might think they can fix.

Fake Jeremy Sowers: What are you hearing on Drake Fellows? Top starter for Vanderbilt this year, but kind of an odd year (strong K rate, but 4.34 ERA).
Keith Law: I think he’s a fourth-fifth rounder.
Keith Law: It’s not huge stuff.

Kedelbro: Is Wilson to Twins the backup plan if Stott/Langeliers unavailable?
Keith Law: Yeah, I think that’s about right.

Matt: What do you think is the ceiling for Greg Jones?
Keith Law: He’s more likely a CF than a SS for me, and I really question the hit tool, but it is legitimately game-changing speed, like Billy Hamilton.

A: I don’t understand what “chalk” means in the way you’ve been using it for the top of the draft. Help?
Keith Law: The predicted guys – nobody goes way off the board.

Cole: Where should this ASU student expect Alec Marsh to be picked this year?
Keith Law: Third to fourth round?
Keith Law: Less certain.

Jeff: Do you think only 4 players at the draft hurts the views and buildup at all? Would getting more players not still playing bring more buzz?
Keith Law: It would help to get more guys there, but the timing sucks for it, and at least one of the guys going to Secaucus isn’t going in the first round and might not go at all tonight. That’s not good.
Keith Law: MLBN is in a tough spot.

Jason: You have Carroll at #4 on your list, but you (and the other respectable mock drafters) all have him making it at least to the Braves at #9. What do you see in him that puts him above several of the others in the seeming consensus top 6?
Keith Law: He’s getting crushed for his height and I don’t think it matters.

Bill: Where would Bo Gentry rank in this draft?
Keith Law: He’s in strong consideration at the #2 pick, if Boston doesn’t trade the #1.

Denise: Do you see the mets going for a prep bat or leiter besides all the other pitchers mocked to them?
Keith Law: Not in the first round.

Alex: Any chance anyone meets Tre Fletcher’s number, or is he going to Vandy?
Keith Law: I feel like he’s going to school … it only takes one team, of course, but he seemed to want a big number, and he’s raw, and he hasn’t been easy to see (Maine HS baseball isn’t exactly the easiest to scout).

Curious Reader: Will you be reading Ben Lindbergh’s book “The MVP Machine” coming out tomorrow? I know you Ben has cited you in his works before – were you interviewed for this book?
Keith Law: I have a copy but haven’t read it.

JR: Any chance the Mets can find another Jarred Kelenic like player this year, but not trade him months later for pennies on the dollar (as a Mets fan, that’s going to hurt a long time)
Keith Law: That should hurt, because it was obviously a bad deal the day they did it. The new GM didn’t understand the market value Kelenic had at that moment, and got too little in return for him and Dunn.

BullpenHelp: Thanks for the chat KLaw

Where do you see UConn closer Jacob Wallace being drafted?
Keith Law: I have heard he could go third or fourth but I’d bet after the fifth myself. Straight reliever.

Denise: I have heard that the college pitching crop is the worst in a long time, do you think this is so?
Keith Law: Absolutely. The worst I’ve ever covered/been involved in, and this is my 18th draft.

Jerome: Does your Top 100 account for signability also? I.e. Are some players lower on your board do to their college commitments?
Keith Law: No. I don’t get that info on all players, and sometimes I don’t know if the numbers I hear are real or just smokescreens, so I ignore them.

Nate: Last year the Jays surprised some people by going down the draft board a bit and snagging Jordan Groshans, a pick that (so far) seems to have worked out decently. Any chance they do something like that again and anyone like Groshans they could target? Thanks
Keith Law: Pick looks great right now – he was the lowest-ranked first rounder last year, I think? – but I only hear them on college arms, including Rutledge.
Keith Law: If Manoah is there, I would take him, but I’ve heard they have a very split camp on whether he’s a starter in the long term.

Jscott022: UVa is normally a hotbed for draft talent is there anyone out of Virginia going in the early rounds of the draft this year?
Keith Law: Tanner Morris could go in the third; good hitter without a position. I didn’t put him on my top 100 so I have him as more of a fourth-fifth round talent.

Andy: I wish Carter Stewart luck, but the thought process has been asked about college basketball. Why don’t high school kids go overseas and get paid to play, then come back and get drafted by the NBA. The answer is, because going to a new culture is tough for anyone, especially an 18 year old away from home for the first time, and it’s really fucking hard to play against adults doing it professionally. So again, I hope that lots of kids have huge success in Japan and scuttlebutt the MLB draft, but I won’t get my hopes up.
Keith Law: I agree with everything you said here – and because of the CBA, Stewart would be under the international cap system until he’s 25, so he’d have to be there for six seasons.

Nate: Do you see a team going for a reliever tonight and getting the m up to the majors this year?
Keith Law: No. That’s rarely worked.

Jon: Keith, do you see any future “Aces” in this years draft? Thank you and Happy Draft day!!
Keith Law: I don’t, actually, which is also part of why it feels like a bad pitching draft.

Jakob: Ever read any of Neal Stephenson’s books?
Keith Law: Yes, Snow Crash and the Diamond Age. Not a huge fan.

Collin: What’s the word on Brennan Malone’s landing spots? What’s his range tonight in your opinion?
Keith Law: Seems like something caused teams to steer away from him lately, so he might get to the 30s.

Sriram: Thanks for all the work. The Top 100 shows your rankings – but where do you think the major breakpoints are in your rankings, where you think the tiers are among the prospects.
Keith Law: The big one I’ve highlighted is that I think Vaughn is close to Rutschman, and there’s a breakpoint right after him, before the HS crop. That seems to put me at odds with my colleagues at MLB or Fangraphs.

Collin: Is Jerrion Ealy in play for anyone in the first round? How signable is he based on what you’ve heard?
Keith Law: No, not even close to first round. He’s not very good, and he’s probably going to play football.

Roger: If Abrams does slide into the teens/middle of the first round would it be because most of those teams don’t view him as the top prospect on the board? Or possibly because they’ve already done so much work on other players not really realizing he’d be available?
Keith Law: This is a great question for which I don’t have a great answer, but my instinct is that the second issue is bigger than folks want to admit. If you didn’t really do the work on Abrams, and you have a player or small set of players on whom you did all the work (not just scouting but medicals and meetings and psych tests or whatever) who will be there, do you just say “fuck it!” and take Abrams, or stick with your process? I would probably do the latter unless it were someone who was such a no-doubter like Vaughn.

Nate (Seattle): How many drafted players would be in a mid-season top 50 prospect list?
Keith Law: We’ll see in a month, but I’d guess 5-7. We’ve had a lot of graduations from the pro top 100 already.

JD: What’s the knock on Jung in your opinion? Power?
Keith Law: Yes.

Bill: Do teams legitimately have 1200+ person big boards or are they virtually picking names out of a hat at a certain point?
Keith Law: No, more like 500-600 names. There will be picks on day two where other teams might not even have magnets for those players (on their boards).

Steve: Are you watching Good Omens after the draft? Episode 1 was very solid.
Keith Law: Yes, I saved it for after the draft and after I finish Fleabag. Also still working through Doctor Who … maybe they’ll let a Dalek announce one of the picks in the second round tonight?

Nicholas: Please correct me if I am off-base here, but I normally wouldn’t expect you to rank someone like Vaughn (college RH first baseman) as high as you have him. So the bat is really that good?
Keith Law: It’s really that good, and who in this class might be better, especially once you consider the certainty/proximity of a college position player over a high school player?

Josh: What is the best comp for Vaughn, upside-wise?
Keith Law: I have said a few times I think his swing reminds me of Goldschmidt’s, and the profile overall reminds me of Hoskins’, just in a shorter package.

Andrew: Do any of the three, Goss, Thompson or Wolf make it to Texas A&M?
Keith Law: Matt Thompson might. The others don’t.

Jay: Any chance the A’s take Brooks Lee?
Keith Law: No.

Joe: How do you respond to the claims that Rutschman’s bat is better than Vaughn’s because Adley put up better stats in the same conference?
Keith Law: That’s pretty lazy.

Brian: Is the draft “fun” for you, or is it “work”?
Keith Law: Both of these things can be true at the same time, you know.
Keith Law: OK, I’m going to wrap this up now so I can revise the mock a little (and get a few minutes with my daughter since she’s about to come home from school). I’ll do the live Periscope at 7 pm ET through Twitter, then I’ll write up a day one recap/analysis tonight. Tomorrow’s plan: A YouTube video where I discuss day one with Jeff Passan; a chat in the afternoon, probably at 2 pm. Then I’ll start working up team by team recaps. Thank you all for reading and for all your questions – enjoy the draft!

Music update, May 2019.

Huge month for new music, boosted by the presence of five Fridays (the day most new music appears online now). I’ve tried to organize the playlist a little by genre, so the two rap songs and five metal songs are towards the end if you don’t share my interest in those styles. If you can’t access the playlist widget below you can go directly to the Spotify link.

Of Monsters and Men – Alligator. The Icelandic stars will release their third album, Fever Dream, on July 26th, their first new album since 2015. This song seems to signal a more rock-oriented and lusher sound, which would be a welcome shift after their last album, Beneath the Skin, which was very good but more sedate.

WOOZE – I’ll Have What She’s Having. So I added this track to my running playlist before realizing that WOOZE is half of the band Screaming Peaches, previously known as Movie, who appeared at #31 on my top 100 songs of 2014 with “Mr. Fist.” This song and WOOZE’s entire EP is more bouncy, flamboyant, faintly ridiculous pop goodness.

The Ninth Wave – First Encounters. A Glaswegian quartet with members who sound like they came straight out of the same post-punk, synth-heavy new wave movement that gave us Joy Division, The Cure, or Heaven 17.

whenyoung – The Others. This Irish trio’s debut album, Reasons to Dream, dropped on May 24th, featuring this track and the single “Future,” albeit none of the tracks from their 2018 EP. I really like Aiofe Power’s voice (and accent) regardless of song style or tempo, but they’re never getting away from Cranberries comparisons with her singing.

The Mysterines – Gasoline. This new post-punk trio is led by singer-guitarist Lia Metcalfe, whose voice is snarling and captivating, especially on the earworm chorus “I just love to hate you.”

Johnny Hostile feat. Jehnny Beth – Let It Out. Johnny Hostile is a music producer who produced the Savages’ two albums to date; Savages singer Jehnny Beth is Hostile’s partner, and the two collaborated to score an upcoming documentary on Chelsea Manning called Chelsea XY. This is the lead single from the soundtrack, a dark atmospheric number that also shows another side of Beth’s vocals.

Holly Herndon – Frontier. Herndon is a musician and “sound artist” who co-created an AI program called Spawn to help write and record her new album Proto. Her statement on the record said that she “assembled a contemporary ensemble of vocalists, developers and an inhuman intelligence housed in a DIY souped-up gaming PC to create a record that encompasses live vocal processing and timeless folk singing, and places an emphasis on alien song craft and new forms of communion.” You go parse that sentence while I move on to the next track.

black midi – Talking Heads. Black MIDI is a weird subgenre of online music where the MIDI files in question contain so many notes that, if you displayed it on sheet music it would be almost solid black, meaning it’s impossible for a human to play. The band black midi don’t go to those extreme, but these four British lads – they look like teenagers – have turned out some fascinating, difficult, experimental music that seems to draw upon math rock as well as art-punk icons like Television and Suicide.

Phantom Planet – BALISONG. They’re back, sans Jason Silverman, although I don’t think their sound has changed all that much even with the hiatus.

Cœur De Pirate – Ne m’appelle pas. It’s been less than a year since her last album, but Béatrice Martin just dropped the very Europop-style new single, along with an inventive video that also shows a more playful side of her than her prior musical output ever suggested.

Charly Bliss – Young Enough. I don’t do a lot of straight pop on these playlists, but the title track from this Brooklyn band’s second album is a strong, smart, and unusually long pop song that I think is a harbinger that they’re going to break out this summer.

Hatchie – Obsessed. More dream-pop goodness from Hatchie, whose debut album Keepsake comes out on June 21st.

Joy Williams – When Creation Was Young. Williams’ second solo album since the end of The Civil Wars, Front Porch, came out on May 3rd. “Canary” remains my top track from this album, although this is a solid second.

The National – Rylan. The National’s latest album, I Am Easy to Find, feels like a huge stylistic departure for the band – you can certainly hear singer Matt Berninger better than before, but he’s also no longer the gravitational singularity at the heart of every song. This is one of the more conventional tracks on the record, but I think it takes the kind of melody the National have done and pairs it with vocals that no longer detract from the music.

The Raconteurs – Help Me Stranger. Jack White’s side projects, at their best, serve as reminders of what a magnetic guitarist he can be.

YONAKA – Don’t Wait ‘Til Tomorrow. I’ve had a handful of YONAKA songs on playlists the last few years, with “Creature” and “Teach Me to Fight” on my top 100 songs of 2018 and “Wouldn’t Wanna Be Ya” on my top 100 of 2017, but their debut album, Don’t Wait ‘Til Tomorrow, just came out on Friday, with this title track and “Creature” both on the record. Their sound has matured even over the two years since I first heard of them, although lead singer Theresa Jarvis’ strong vocals are still the centerpiece.

Imperial Teen – We Do What We Do Best. I had no idea Imperial Teen, which features Faith No More keyboardist Roddy Bottum on lead vocals and guitar, was still active after its brief ’90s peak with “You’re One” and “Yoo Hoo,” but they have a new single out, their first since 2012, and it sounds like it could have come from 1996’s Seasick.

Sleater-Kinney – Hurry On Home. We’re just not going to talk about the cover photo.

Safer – Good Things. Mattie Safer, a founding member of The Rapture who left that group in 2009, has a new band under his surname, with this first single more rock-tinged but still in the dance/funk vein that his other projects have also incorporated.

Lower Dens – Young Republicans. The Baltimore indie-pop duo are back with a rather unsubtle commentary on modern American politics.

The Amazons – End Of Wonder. The British quartet’s latest album, Future Dust, came out on May 24th, and features more of the muscular guitar-driven sound that they had on previous singles like “Black Magic” but didn’t hold through entire albums.

White Reaper – Might Be Right. White Reaper just signed to Elektra Records and released this new single. There’s no word of a new album, although with a heavy summer touring schedule, there’s probably one coming.

The Hives – I’m Alive. The Hives have released just one album in the last dozen years, 2012’s Lex Hives, but they’re back together – without longtime bassist Dr. Matt Destruction – with this new single. It’s not “Hate to Say I Told You So” or even “Walk Idiot Walk,” but it’s promising.

Wu-Tang Clan – Seen a Lot of Things (feat. Ghostface Killah, Raekwon & Harley). The Killer Bees released an EP to go along with the four-part Showtime documentary on the group, Of Mics and Men; this is the strongest track on the record.

Flying Lotus feat. Anderson .Paak – More. Flying Lotus isn’t really my jam, but I do like Anderson .Paak’s voice, and this is the best track from either of their new albums, which both came out within the last eight weeks.

Sky Valley Mistress – You Got Nothin’. This new British group headed by Kayley Davies gets comps to Led Zeppelin, but I don’t think that’s apt for this song, which is bluesy but in more of a bar-band sense than Zeppelin’s progressive reworking of blues classics.

Black Mountain – Licensed to Drive. Black Mountain go a little heavier than their normal psychedelic-rock here with a dark, metal riff driving (pun intended) this intricate track from their latest album, Destroyer, which came out on May 24th.

Paladin – Awakening. A new band from Atlanta who are producing unapologetically old sounds – this is dead-on 1980s classic thrash in the vein of Flotsam and Jetsam, Vio-lence, or early Testament.

Death Angel – The Pack. Speaking of which, these Bay Area thrash icons seem utterly unapologetic that their sound hasn’t changed in thirty years, and I’m here for it. Humanicide, their ninth full-length, dropped on Friday.

Sabaton – Fields of Verdun. I do like the song, but there’s no way I can hear this chorus as anything other than “feels overdone.”

Destruction – Born To Perish. One of the leaders of the Teutonic thrash scene, Destruction have been at it since 1982, but this song sounds remarkably fresh – it’d fit right in with their ’80s peak, or with the best stuff from their German compatriots Kreator.

Memoriam – Undefeated. I thought this was going to be a one-off project – the band’s name was a tribute to Martin Kearns, the late drummer of British death metal icons Bolt Thrower – but they’re about to release their third album in as many years. Karl Willets (also of Bolt Thrower) has a difficult vocal style to take, but I’m into the heavy riffing behind his growls, darker than thrash but not impenetrable like Bolt Thrower’s grindcore origins.