The dish

ESPN+ subscribers can see my column on prospects who’ve gotten the call this September.

Keith Law: I’m being held up by invisible men. Klawchat.

JR: If Alonso was having this type of season 20 years ago (or even 10) would he be a lock for NL MVP (or at least top 3 candidate) solely based on the fact he leads MLB in HRs (assume for purposes of my question he does end up as league leader)
Keith Law: Probably, given how voters thought 20 years ago. I’m not sorry that this has changed.

Joey: Is Wil Myers toast?
Keith Law: Seems dramatic … but he’s been so bad for just about two full years now I don’t see any reason to forecast an improvement.

Guest: Klaw, Thanks for the chats. Appreciate your time and insights. any thoughts on Brailyn Marquez?
Keith Law: Saw him pitch on Sunday (as those of you who follow my mostly non-baseball Instagram account @mrkeithlaw know) and he was 96-100 for six innings with a plus slider and below-average changeup. It’s not a great delivery for a starter, and every scout I’ve asked about him has said they wrote him up as a high-leverage reliever. I think I’d feel better saying he could end up a Hader/Aroldis type out of the pen than saying he could be a mid-rotation stater.

addoeh: Why is the President more concerned about a state Dorian won’t come within a couple hundred miles of than states and territories and it has/will hit?
Keith Law: Might have to do with the electoral map.

Joe: Would you give Hunter Harvey another chance to start or just keep him in the pen?
Keith Law: I can’t see him starting after all those injuries and the extreme cross-body delivery he adopted back in low minors.

Bill G: Hi Keith. Thanks as always for doing these chats. I fail to see the logic of the opener, especially when they are followed by a bulk pitcher. Why use a good reliever in the first inning, followed by a bulk guy. It seems more logical to use the good reliever late in the game when there are fewer innings to recover from giving up a run. Please help me understand. Thanks!
Keith Law: The logic is that the first inning is the one inning where you’re guaranteed to face your opponent’s best hitters (1-2-3). You seldom get such an opportunity to line up your most effective one-inning arm against the best hitters in the other team’s lineup.

BigDaddeh: Is the prospect dream over for Florial?
Keith Law: No. I’ve never ranked him that highly because his pitch recognition is so bad, but you can also point to his youth and the fact that he’s had two significant injuries (hamate and wrist) in the last two years that probably hurt his performance as well.

Ben: What has Lux done differently to his game this season? It can’t be just the ball.
Keith Law: Just physical development, as far as I can tell.

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: Hey KLaw.

Benyamin Bailey is putting up an interesting .324/.477/.454 slash line in rookie ball as a 17 year old, with a 21% walk rate (with a 16% K rate). I’m having a hard time finding much info on him. What can you tell me about him? Is he a legit prospect? Thank You.
Keith Law: He’s not in rookie ball – he’s in the DSL, which is a step below that. I don’t pay any attention to stats there because the level of competition is so uneven.

mike sixel: Berrios seems to be fading again this year. A: Is he, or is it random? B: what, if anything, can be done about it (this year or next)? thanks.
Keith Law: I didn’t realize how pronounced his career splits were by time of year – he’s clearly less effective in August and September, at least. Better question for the Twins people, obviously, who might have a better handle on any biomechanical indicators, but I would at least ask if using him less early in the season would help him hold his performance later.

Ben: Your thoughts on the AFL beginning almost a full month earlier than usual?
Keith Law: I understand why they did it: teams didn’t like shutting pitching prospects down for almost a month and then having them ramp back up to pitch in the AFL. That’s a good reason. But it sucks for just about every other stakeholder, including scouts – and most teams seem to value the scouting reports they get from that environment.

barbeach: Thanks as always for doing these chats. This week was another reminder that Brodie’s bullpen construction borders on malpractice. Is there anyone in that group with a real future?
Keith Law: First, I don’t think Diaz is toast; I’d bet on some regression to the mean next year, and I wonder if the altered baseball is helping make his slider so ineffective. Lugo’s been good and I think he’ll continue to be so. I think guys like Gsellman and Sewald are capable back-end relievers. It’s not a good group on the whole, but the Mets aren’t starting from scratch in 2020 either.

James: Last week the Royals bunted for a single, sac bunted which resulted in an error, then sac bunted again which also resulted in an error. The announcers talked about the great strategy. Then an assistant to the GM said that one of the stats that he thinks is UNDERAPPRECIATED is the RBI because not everyone can drive a guy in from second base with two outs.
Keith Law: Well, this might explain why they’re 13th in runs scored.
Keith Law: By the way, did I see a rumor that their new owner wants to extend Moore’s contract? Is that even possible?

BigDaddeh: The Rangers have been playing Solak at 3rd base. Even good shifting can’t hide the glove, right?
Keith Law: I’d agree with you on that.

J.P.: Do you concur with the decision not to call up Robert?
Keith Law: I understand it. The flip side is that he’s getting away with stuff in AAA that major-league pitchers will exploit, and for him to keep developing he has to come to the majors.

PA Prospects: Any chance Spencer Howard can legitimately help the Phillies over the final 3 weeks, or not worth the risk of health or mental issues if not ready?
Keith Law: Not a bad idea at all. I wonder if they’ll call him up when Reading is done, and thus have him skip the AFL.

Mark: Anthony Rendon is really turning on the Jets towards the end of the season.Does he enter into the MVP discussion in the N.L ?
Keith Law: His stats are virtually indistinguishable from Bellinger’s and he’s not far behind Yelich. He should already have been in the MVP discussion, if we’re discussing serious, worthy candidates. I don’t know if voters have already made up their minds though.

Sedona: Will Canario be in consideration for Top 100 next year?
Keith Law: I don’t know for sure but right now would say probably not.

James: Did you play Tapestry and do a write up of it?
Keith Law: The game isn’t out yet. My review copy should be here in a few weeks, and I will review it. That’s a priority game for me even though my review queue is at least a dozen titles long (just for Paste etc., not counting games I’ll review on the dish).

Tim: Is there a plan with Vlad Guitierez usage next year? He was dominant last month as a starter. 10-15 starts for the Reds next year?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s a starter long-term.

Chris: So…Good Eats: The Return. Must-see TV for you?
Keith Law: Yes.

Matthew: What do you make of James Karinchak? Clearly he’s not a viable major league pitcher with his current walk rate, but the K rate is so absurd, is there possibly anything to dream on?
Keith Law: Just a novelty until he stops walking guys. Relievers sometimes turn that corner without warning – look at Kimbrel’s walk rates in the minors – but I have never thought we know which guys will do so.

Dana: I know the BABIP is unsustainable, but Bryan Reynolds has been incredible and he hit everywhere he’s been. Why was he never a top prospect?
Keith Law: He didn’t hit everywhere he’s been. He only slugged about .450 between high-A and double-A and was a touch old for both levels. Bear in mind I ranked him as a first-rounder out of college, so I thought those years were disappointing, but I also couldn’t rank him highly when he showed so little power for a corner OF.

Johnny Asel: What is wrong with Trevor Bauer this year?
Keith Law: Last year was the outlier.

JG: Should the Twins have concern about Buxton’s health going forward? Royce Lewis did play CF earlier this week…
Keith Law: Lewis can’t play SS. He has to move somewhere and CF makes the best use of his skills. I think that’s independent of Buxton’s injury history, but if BB doesn’t show he can stay healthy Lewis could usurp him.

Nick P: Have you read Fearless by Eric Blehm? Phenomenal read!
Keith Law: No, not really my genre.

Andy: Should the Tigers DFA Cabrera in the offseason? I’m not sure his spot on the major league roster is actually hurting the team long term?
Keith Law: I see 0% chance of that happening.

Nick P: Who is more valuable, Mike Soroka or Acuna Jr?
Keith Law: Acuna Jr. Not close.

Aaron G: Are the Astros the only (postseason) team with more than two starters that could reasonably get 3+ times through the order with any degree of confidence? I guess the Nats also fit that description, but that seems about it.
Keith Law: At a glance, those two are it.

mike: your weekly Biggio question, Defence is below average, good eye – seems to have average power but he’s nothing for a Jays fan to be excited about. Maybe a utility type bench guy right
Keith Law: Not even since he has no position. I enjoyed one Jays fan trying to troll me when Biggio had one good game, though. Stay dim.

Jubilant Earl: Last year, around this time, I asked if Christian McCafferey was going to be a top 5 RB in PPR. You’re response was terse; “what sport is that?” I need to know this year: will Aaron Jones be a top 5 RB in PPR?
Keith Law: Not close. Saquon, Elliott, the aforementioned McCaffrey, Kamara, David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, Gurley, Josh Jacobs … is Jones even top ten?

Hank: Has the Fernando Rodney trade lottery ticket Dakota Chalmers piqued your interest at all to follow in the AFL?
Keith Law: It’ll be interesting to see him but his delivery was pretty rough before the TJ. Maybe a two-pitch reliever?

Nick: Andrew Vaughn’s had a decent pro debut the numbers don’t jump off the page the way I would have expected them to so far. Maybe there’s some fatigue after a long season. What do you make of his first taste of pro ball? For a player whose value is almost entirely tied up in his bat, I would have liked to see a little more this summer.
Keith Law: He’s been playing since Valentine’s Day. I’m sure he and Adley are exhausted.

Rick: Hi Keith, Do any teams use RBI’s to judge players anymore. I sure hope not. Yet you will hear GM’s mention a players RBI’s many times Is the GM usually doing that because that is what the fans want to hear?
Keith Law: Probably yes, and because it’s easy (or lazy) to do so. But I don’t think any GMs still actively use RBI.

Hank: If Twins make a move for a frontline pitcher in the offseason, who would you rather hold on to: Kiriloff or Larnach?
Keith Law: Keep Kirilloff. I think he’s a superstar. Shame he was also pulled from the AFL.

Mr. Bergstrom: Hi Keith: would it make sense for MLB to return to a 154 game schedule in order to introduce another round of playoffs? Is there any reason to not do it?
Keith Law: Yes. One reason is that it takes 8 games (4 home games) away from ~18 of the teams. The other reason is that I fucking hate it.

Buscon Bob: Carlos Colemaneres, Venezualen SS, Top 2020 IFA?
Keith Law: No clue. Better question for Jesse Sanchez or my friends at Fangraphs.

Jon: Thank you for the chats Klaw. Thoughts on Joey Cantillo’s future? I know the velo isn’t there but it seems deceptive. Thanks
Keith Law: Correct, deception over stuff. Has value, hard to project starter.

Jared: Do you think James Karinchak will be closing for Cleveland by early 2020?
Keith Law: No. See above.

Mitch: What’s Patrick Sandoval’s ceiling? Mid rotation starter?
Keith Law: More back end.

Eric: fun stat:

In 2007, a 42-year-old Barry Bonds had a 1.045 OPS, and couldn’t find a job the next year because of reasons.

In the 12 years since, only 12 players have eclipsed that mark.
Keith Law: NO COLLUSION!

JG: Would you consider this a “bounce-back” year for Nick Gordon? Any improvement in his stock?
Keith Law: No. League-average OBP and below-average SLG while repeating the league.

Connor: Is Framber Valdez going to be anything more than a back end starter? That command just seems poor
Keith Law: Below-average for a starter, likely a reliever.

Jordan: I find it absolutely ridiculous that some Mets fans don’t care about losing Kelenic because he’s “just a prospect” and then they allude to guys like Fernando Martinez and Lastings Milledge. Do they not understand that the deal was bad no matter how Kelenic turns out because Van Wagenen completely undervalued him in a trade for a reliever, the most volatile position in the sport? Diaz posting a 5+ ERA this year is just the cherry on top of an already terrible deal.
Keith Law: Exactly. And he also undervalued Dunn. And overvalued the guys he got. It reeked of a GM in over his head, trying to make a big splash in his first week on the job, and DiPoto saw an easy mark.

Mike: Do you see a guy like Brujan looking like a candidate to substantially boost his hitting profile once he moves up to AAA/MLB playing with the juiced ball?
Keith Law: No. I don’t really think the premise works – everyone hits better with this juiced ball.

Max: So, Jack Flaherty looks like an ace in his last 10 or so starts. Could he become that? Or more of a #2?
Keith Law: I think I’d previously said #2 for him and would stick with that, but I’m not arguing. He’s good. Harvard-Westlake should produce more pitchers.

Max: Does Miguel Vargas have the potential to be the next great Dodgers position prospect?
Keith Law: He is a good prospect. The hyperbolic questions don’t really help, though.

Matthew: Tarik Skubal seems like a pop-up guy to a degree. His Double-A stats are pretty fancy though. Might he have a mid-rotation ceiling?
Keith Law: Answered last week. Real prospect, not a pop-up guy.

JR: Who’s the favorite right now for NY Cy Young?
Keith Law: DeGrom. Scherzer leads him in fWAR but DeGrom’s innings lead and counting stats will probably carry the day.

Eric: hey keith, can i go ahead and borrow some guns? a us representative said it’s cool to do that willy nilly.
Keith Law: Yep. Also drive my car. Doesn’t matter if you have a license.

Pete: Will Smith LAD is good but he’s playing over his head right now right? Is the ceiling a .350 OBP/30 hr bat?
Keith Law: More OBP. Maybe 25 HR but that’s quibbling.

Buscon Bob: Are you surprised more about Austin Meadows nearing 30 HRs or Travis d’Arnaud reaching 20?
Keith Law: Literally nothing surprises me with HR totals.

addoeh: The Cubs seem to have such an patchy record with developing their position players in the majors. Baez and Contreras have improved over time, but Almora, Schwarber, Russell, Bote, and Happ have either stayed the same or regressed. Are these outcomes about what one would expect or is it a concern?
Keith Law: Throw Russell out, not literally but … okay, well maybe literally. The others are all kind of surprising to me especially Almora. Thought he’d at least hit for empty average.

Matt: Give me some optimism here Keith, spencer Howard, how high is his ceiling? Did the Phillies finally find a gem in the draft with him?
Keith Law: See my post on him from last week.

ARod: You definitely would rather have a 2-run lead than a 13-run lead because even leads are gold.
Keith Law: He said that two straight weeks. It’s like he heard “sabermetrics” and googled “numerology.”

HH: If you had the choice between expanded rosters in September (as now) or expanded rosters in April, what would you prefer? I kinda think the latter would be more fun, and less disruptive to playoff races.
Keith Law: Yep and I think it would allow for slightly shorter spring training too, which I believe most players would favor.

Joey Joe Joe: Are you still in on Jakson Reetz? Seems to have put it together this year.
Keith Law: 23 repeating high-A. Wasn’t good when I saw him in the first half. Really need to see him do it at a higher level to buy in.

Stephen: I had submitted my question too late on Friday, so i will try it here: How would you rate the drafting decisions of Damon Oppenheimer over the last 4 or so years? in 2015 he drafted James Kaprielian & Kyle Holder while skipping over players like “Walker Buehler” “Austin Riley” not qbing from a distant, I just wonder if a team that will always be drafting low it is imperative that they hit on those picks. DO seems to miss more often. 2016 Blake Rutherford over so many others with more upside
Keith Law: Buehler needed TJ at the time and that may be why they passed – and why they took the same risk on Clarke Schmidt two years later. They’ve also found a lot of value lower in the draft.

Kevin: What is the bail amount set on Solar for murdering that baseball last night ?
Keith Law: That was a monster shot with any baseball. I go back and forth on how much of his breakout to buy, given how power-centric it is.

Ben: If you had only two nights in Chicago where would you eat for dinner those two nights?
Keith Law: Monteverde and Purple Pig.

romorr: DL Hall had a good season in A+ ball. The walks are a worry to me, but all I see is the stat line. Do you think it is a worry, or something fixable? Keeping him in A+ to work it out seems the smart play for 2020, right?
Keith Law: Great athlete with good delivery. I don’t see any reason he couldn’t improve.

Dylan: You say Brailyn Marquez has a below average changeup and is likely a reliever. But if I take this sharpie and add a few lines to his scouting report, he becomes a future #1 starter.
Keith Law: Yes, Mr. President. The truth is whatever you want it to be.

Keith: What is your POV on how teams should be handling high school pitchers in their first year after the draft? What were the varying approaches that different orgs took, and what are the pros and cons of each?
Keith Law: Other than being conservative with in-game pitch counts, which we know is a good idea, I think teams are mostly just guessing at how to keep them healthy.

romorr: Santander has been a bright spot for the Orioles this year, it’s not a seasons worth of ABs, but the results are there. Think he can be a viable starter in RF for 150+ games a year? I remember he wasn’t a nothing prospect, just lots of injuries.
Keith Law: Yeah I’m buying that one. Average regular.

Jerry: Thoughts on the Astros/Verlander flap with the Detroit reporter. I found it disappointing that the Astros and Verlander were that petty. One of the Astros former beat writers said on Twitter that this wasn’t the first time they’ve done something like that.
Keith Law: Astros were completely in the wrong, as was Verlander. Unequivocally so. If there’s an issue with the writer, it has to be handled at another time. The team is obligated to respect his credential.

jack: Can Alec Bohm be a competent 3rd baseman for a few years? Until the NL implements the dh
Keith Law: If “competent” means average, no. If it means a 45, yes.

JR: when you do the podcast with Buster, do you know what questions he will be asking you in advance so you can prepare? Or just shooting from the hip?
Keith Law: He tells me a few things before we start recording but that’s it. I think I do better when it’s extempore anyway.

John O’Reily: What is Roasny Contreras best case scenario
Keith Law: Tightens the CB and becomes a #3 starter.

Robert: Luis Basabe has had a better second half. Could some of his issues in the first half be related to the broken hamate? Is he a candidate for a bounceback in 2020?
Keith Law: I believe all of this is true.

Dice Throne: Have you played any of the games in the Dice Throne series? Hearing good things and wondering what you think
Keith Law: I have not, sorry.

Chad: Does Seager or Lux profile better as a shortstop going forward?
Keith Law: Lux, for me.

SK: So we’re now two years into Max Kepler hitting lefties as well as he hits righties. Considering how bad he was against lefties earlier in his career, is this sustainable?
Keith Law: I’m in. Now MLB needs to get his face on billboards all across Europe.

Buscon Bob: With the FSL playoffs cancelled, should Wander Franco be given a taste of AA?
Keith Law: Why not? I see no downside.

Ira: Aren’t the Yankees best served letting Didi walk and moving Torres to shortstop and using that money on a front line starter? I assume Didi will want long term deal.
Keith Law: I would.

Dan: Are there any literary classics like 1984, To Kill a Mockingbird, Catch 22, etc. that you make a point to read every so often just to make sure they’re always fresh in your mind?
Keith Law: No, just because there are too many other books I want to read.

Sarah: This was reported in late June – given the year he’s had, do you think it explains Bauer’s struggles? “On multiple occasions this year, Bauer has mentioned after starts that he’s been battling something physically. It hasn’t allowed him the mobility he needs during his deliver to really rear back and get the bite and spin on his pitches that he wants. He said on Wednesday that he felt better, but, he still hasn’t felt entirely comfortable on the mound. He hasn’t given any details on what he’s dealing with, but, something is there.”
Keith Law: Of course, yes, it’s the reed.

Andy: I must have missed all the articles about how attendance plummeted for the White Sox, Nationals, and Dodgers. I was told (by others) that was the only possible outcome of extending the netting.
Keith Law: Yes, please send me those links.

Dallas: Do you have a preference between DRS and UZR? They can be so different for example Bogaerts is -20 DRS but 1.8 UZR; Rosario is similar -14 DRS -1.8 UZR?
Keith Law: I look at both, but prefer UZR slightly.

Henry: Your cat was outstanding on Baseball Tonight a a couple of weeks ago. Can’t wait for your new book.
Keith Law: He made a real racket this morning and I have no idea why. Thanks.

Guest: Small sample size for Aristides Aquino? Legit or somewhere in the middle?
Keith Law: Somewhere in the middle.

Scherzer’s Third Eye Color: With the likely Cole departure, and A’s getting Manaea,Puk, Luzardo and Montas back in the rotation. And a full season of Murphy at catcher, can A’s challenge Houston for the division in 2020?
Keith Law: I don’t necessarily buy that rotation. All four have had injury issues this year. Three have had multiple injuries in their careers. Montas never projected as a starter for me. How many total starts do you think the A’s get from that quartet next year? 75?

Anchen: Phillies fans seem to mostly hate Gabe Kapler at least as their manager. Do you have any views on him either on field decision making or off field? Example, he has for the most part not benched players who didn’t hustle. What do you think of the general cost/benefit of benching a player for something like that?
Keith Law: I don’t quite get the vitriol directed at him – my gut says that a lot of it is “he’s different, so we don’t like him.” He’s made good moves and bad moves, been good for some players and maybe not good for others, but I think he’s been a net positive, and I don’t blame him for the utter implosion of their opening day bullpen.

JM: If Rendon walks, can Kieboom play 140 effective games at 2nd or 3rd in 2020?
Keith Law: It’s an enormous drop in production. I think he needs to play 2b over 3b.

Jason: Can you name the one prospect whose stock has increased the most this season, and one whose stock has dropped the most?
Keith Law: Not right now. Maybe in December or January when I’ve taken a thorough look at everyone.

Dallas: Sheldon Neuse’s BP defensive rate stat FRAA is very good at 3B while in Triple-A; could he start at 3B for other teams giving Oakland a nice trade piece?
Keith Law: I don’t use that stat. Having seen him in the low minors, I think he could be average at third, probably the same at second.

Vincent Adultman: Have you traveled to Japan and how long of a stay would you recommend for a first time visiter?
Keith Law: Never been. Would love to go, for work or tourism.

romorr: Orioles have been bad, no denying. But this is a good bad right, giving guys playing time to see if anything sticks. Maybe find some value to build, or trade.
Keith Law: Yes. Elias et al inherited a very weak foundation.

Mike: Thoughts on Braxton Garrett this year? Any chance he’s going to crack the top 100?
Keith Law: Wasn’t he on my midseason top 50? He was a top 50 prospect before the injury – chance for plus command with an average fastball and plus breaking ball. Stuff is definitely back.

Ryan: Pavin Smith has had a very good season, and he really turned it up in the last couple of months. Have you heard about anything he may have done to improve in the second half? Thank you!
Keith Law: He’s had an okay season, for a first baseman. Still nowhere near enough power.

Matthew: Since acquiring Carson Kelly, has the door closed on Daulton Varsho as a catcher? Might he be a part-time backup?
Keith Law: Other teams doubted Varsho would stay at C before the trade, between his own defensive issues and the desire to get a bat/athlete like him to another position. So I think he moves permanently in the next 12 months.

A. person: First trip to NY in a few weeks. Staying in Manhattan. What should we eat?
Keith Law: I mean, it would depend entirely on what you like to eat. NYC has just about everything. You could go full New York and focus on pizza and bagels and Jewish and Italian-American food … but you could also take advantage of the cornucopia of cuisines available in the city’s innumerable ethnic communities.

Chris: Logan Gilbert seems to have answered most of the doubts some had about him at draft time. Is a #2 starter too lofty of a projection?
Keith Law: It’s within reach.

Brett: Do you ever wear hats? You strike me as someone who doesn’t wear hats.
Keith Law: If I’m at a game I almost always have a hat on.

Adam: Thoughts on the season Gabriel Arias is having?
Keith Law: So young for high-A … glad to see the good contact, but the low walk rate/moderately high K rate aren’t great. I hold to the fact that he’s just 19 in high-A, though.

Bill: Hey Keith. What was the most recent election in which you voted for a Republican?
Keith Law: 2004, I think?
Keith Law: Actually I may have voted for one or two downballot in 2008, when I lived in Massachusetts and there often weren’t two candidates listed for certain offices.

Jeremy B: Keith, no real question, just a thank you for suggesting Juniper & Ivy in past chats. Was in SD two weeks ago. Not sure I’ve ever had a meal that good. Thanks again
Keith Law: I haven’t been in 2+ years but am going in December come hell or high water. It’s one of the best restaurants in the country.

Jason: How easy is it to teach a group of people to play Everdell and to understand the game quickly?
Keith Law: I think it’s easy to start. The game is structured in a way that the beginning round is simple, and the complexity increases as you go along, so you’re not just thrown to the wolves in round one.

Sam W : RE- Cy young. With the way he’s pitched the last two months and the cardinals ascent to the top of the division seemingly in conjunction, do you think that Jack Flaherty should be in the conversation with seemingly no clear front runner at the moment.
Keith Law: Absolutely not. This is a full-season award, not a last-two-months award.

Eric: while it’s more fun to make drawing on a hurricane map the news cycle for four stupid days, let’s not forget that there are children being locked up on our border and families being cruley separated every day. this should never be out of the news cycle as long as it is happening.
Keith Law: And efforts to legislate trans people out of existence. And rollbacks of environmental regulations that threaten our water supply, air quality, and global climate. And persistent attacks on women’s rights. And now the gutting of funds for our armed forces. And just wait until the next epidemic hits and we’re underfunded or just unwilling to send help.

Guest: Is Derek Hill’s glove still good enough to make him an everyday starter in Detroit?
Keith Law: He’s at least a half-grade of bat from that. The glove/speed make him a bench piece.

Aaron: What kind of upside do you think Simeon Woods has? Top of the rotation potential?
Keith Law: Hah, no, not close. Wrote him up here.

Chris (Raleigh, NC): Hi Keith — No question, just wanted to say thanks for all the great columns, chats, etc. I look forward to reading them every week. When you write your next book maybe you could consider a book signing in the Raleigh/Cary area. It would give you an excuse to partake in some of the food options here…
Keith Law: It’s on my personal short list of places where I didn’t do signings last time but would love to hit this time.

Mike: Re: Garrett – would you believe I looked at the 2019 and 2018 lists, but not the midseason? Apologies Keith – love the chats!
Keith Law: Thanks, I was unsure if I’d included him when you asked.

Mike: Favorite Minneapolis restaurant?
Keith Law: Revival.

Paul: I appreciate you keeping us up to date on your varied interests. What do you do to stay active? Are you into Tennis, Golf or anything like that?
Keith Law: I bike around the neighborhood in the spring and fall, usually with my daughter, and go to the gym in the winter. Never cared for golf. Would play tennis but am terrible at it.

Mark: So you went to Jamaica and stayed on the resort with a bunch of white people?
Keith Law: Good try, but no, the guests were mixed, whether by race or national origin. The only thing we all had in common was that we were all adults.

Kendra: You need to try Cloak and Petal and King and Queen Cantina in SD. Both just up the street from J&I. Also Craft and Commerce for drinks. And there’s a Salt and Straw there too. Really a great food city.
Keith Law: Excellent. I think I tried C&C once a few years ago. Thank you.

Jason: I’m very enthused by the start both Will Smith and Gavin Lux have gotten off to, but would you have traded one or both for a lockdown Closer like Vazquez knowing that it’s awfully tough to get to the World Series 2 yrs in a row, let alone 3x
Keith Law: No.

GOTCHA: why do people come to your chat to try to get you, like dumb mark?
Keith Law: It’s one dumb guy, pretty much every week. He doesn’t learn.

Brett: Are you an Apple Watch guy?
Keith Law: I’m not. I need fewer devices, not more.

Nick: When you say that a pitcher could be a 3 is that like Tanaka? Eduardo Rodriguez? The rotation is so different for each team a comp would be helpful.
Keith Law: I have two definitions I try to use for that. One is that there are roughly 15 aces (#1 starters) in any given year, 30 #2s, 30 #3s, etc. The other is that a #3 starter should be league-average, and you work outward from there. Both are a bit wibbly-wobbly timey-wimey but you get the gist.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions. I’m hoping to resume semi-regular periscopes now that the season is winding down, and my email newsletter should become more regular too. I should be back for another chat next Thursday as well. Thanks again!

Keith Law: I guess I didn’t know. Klawchat.

Otto Adamvino: With Deivi Garcia, Schmidt, Gil & Medina all looking good lately, has the Yanks’ minor-league pitching taken a step forward overall this season? Do you project any/all of those four to be good MLB starters?
Keith Law: Garcia is the highest probability starter of the group for me. I’d project Schmidt to start, with some caveats about his durability. Medina probably has the highest ceiling, based on pure stuff and delivery, but the shortest track record of adequate performance (he’s been great recently, a complete turnaround from everything that came before). You didn’t mention Roansy Contreras, who I also think is a definite starter, or Luis Gil, more likely a reliever than the others in the group but nonzero starter potential. So yeah, pretty solid crop.

Bruce: Will Bo Bichette stay at SS? Does he have an All Star hit tool?
Keith Law: I would bet on him moving off shortstop, but I think he has at least a 60 hit tool.

Will: How close are Matt Olson and Ramon Laureano to their ceilings?
Keith Law: I would say they’re both at or right near their ceilings. Laureano has even exceeded my expectations for him when I saw him and wrote him up positively after the AFL in 2016, before the Astros tried to change his swing.

Tony: Man, Rhys Hoskins looks terrible. I know he’s not as good as he looked when he first came up, and probably isn’t this bad, but it really is starting to seem like he’s more Pat Burrell than Paul Goldschmidt at this point
Keith Law: A 120 wRC+ isn’t terrible; I think you’re reacting to how he gets to that figure (power and walks, lot of Ks, low average) rather than considering the total production. I’d say I’m more concerned about his defense than anything else.

VernRudyVanceDerekKeith LAW: The Pirates seem to have several rookies & young vets having pretty strong offensive years. I know they have no pitching, especially given Taillon’s injury, but is there enough of an offensive core there to build a contender?
Keith Law: Yes. But they need a lot of pitching to get there and right now I don’t see it in the system.

Danny: So I’m torn. I want Trump gone because he’s the most divisive and destructive American politician we may have ever seen. Recessions are terrible, although inevitable in economic cycles. Am I wrong to want this recession within the next year or so if it means helping get him voted out?
Keith Law: I had this same conversation with someone the other day … you can’t root for a recession, not if you have any sort of conscience, but the realistic view is that 1) recessions are inevitable, as you said, and 2) they often bounce a lot of incumbents, especially the President.

Paul: Hey Keith – my wife and I are trying to plan a trip in early December. Somewhere tropical, looking for something adults only, nice beache etc. I know you have been to a few any place that you have been that you would recommend?
Keith Law: My girlfriend and I just stayed at Sunset at the Palms in Negril, Jamaica, this month, and we thought it was fantastic – adults only, all inclusive, never had any need to leave the resort, incredibly friendly and helpful staff. The food was better than we’d expected too. We did see the largest stingray either of us could ever remember seeing, right on the beach, maybe three feet from the water line, so … swim carefully.

Tony Gonsolin: I have a legitimate 4 pitch mix with + grades and pitched well against NYY, ATL, STL and @ COL. What is my realistic ceiling?
Keith Law: Slow down. You do not have four pitches with plus grades.

Sedona: Will Joe Palumbo and Justin Dunn be in their respective rotations in 2020? What are their ceilings?
Keith Law: That feels like a strong maybe in both cases (better than even odds, far from definite). Dunn potential #3 starter, Palumbo maybe a tick below that. I believe both guys can start.

Tevin: It got very little publicity at the time, but is the Randal Grichuk extension by the Jays the most confusing deal of the year? They gave him $50+ million for 5 years despite having him under control through 2020. He’s already 27, he’s a 1-2 win player (this year he’s even less) at a non-premium position.
Keith Law: I have always been befuddled with industry evaluations of Grichuk as more than an extra outfielder, which date back to when he was in the low minors. His strengths and weaknesses are pretty clear and I don’t think they’ve changed at all since he was a prospect, have they? That’s not a core player you try to lock up. You keep that guy, and pay him fairly, but save your long-term investments for guys like Bichette.

Sedona: Why can’t lefties hit lefties while righties can hit righties?
Keith Law: Right-handed batters have platoon splits; they’re just not as severe. I think the main reason is that there are so many fewer left-handed pitchers, so left-handed batters don’t get the same quantity of reps against same-side arms as RHB do. There could also be some selection bias at work, with teams particularly favoring LHP who have the breaking ball(s) to get lefties out.

Mark: Were you surprised Blake Swihart passed through waivers ? Kind of feel bad for the guy, the ankle injury ,parasites,his brother passing away. Is his career likely over ?
Keith Law: Surprised, a little. Career over, not at all.

Hank: Bryan Reynolds. How much of this is mirage, how much of it is sustainable?
Keith Law: The .410 BABIP is obviously unsustainable, by a large margin. His secondary skills are enough to make him a regular even when that bubble bursts.

Jason: On Monday, Atlanta had Billy Hamilton on third with 1 out, down by 1. The hitter (not very good) walked, bringing up the pitcher’s spot, and the two options were Tyler Flowers and Hechevarria. Although Hechevarria hit a sac fly to score the tying run, was that a rare situation where an out in play would probably have been preferable to a walk?
Keith Law: I may have missed something in your question, but I don’t see why that’s preferable; the walk loads the bases for whoever was on deck, who was not the pitcher.

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: Hey KLaw. You wake up tomorrow as Rick Hahn. Do you view your team as ready to compete for the playoffs next year? If so, what moves do you make? Thanks.
Keith Law: I do view them as contenders in 2020. First order of business would be adding a starting pitcher, probably via free agency.

Chris: O/U on David Peterson innings next year in majors: 100
Keith Law: With most teams I’d say over. I can’t figure out anything the Mets are doing; they are operating with such a short horizon that I find it hard to predict how they’ll use players or even who they’ll keep.

BigDaddeh: Would you be in favor of a mercy rule in baseball? And at what point? Up 12 runs after 7?
Keith Law: In the majors, no, please God no. In the minors, I’d be open to that rather than having position players pitching, because at that point the development is over.

davealden53: James Kaprielian keeps putting up competent or better 4 to 5 inning starts in Double-A. Might he be multi-inning option for the A’s in September and a #4 starter next year?
Keith Law: Yes to the former. I can’t predict his health after the TJ and long recovery … I thought he had #1 starter potential before he blew out, but can he hold his stuff and handle a starter’s workload? I don’t think anyone can reasonably answer that question.

Lee D, LA: Keith — Here in LA it felt like the Dodgers chances to win the WS dropped from 33% to 20% after the Yankees beat up Ryu and also will likely get home field advantage — and the Astros might too. Over-reaction to one 3 game series?
Keith Law: There is no reaction to a 3-game series that is not an overreaction.

addoeh: While he’s in Poland next week to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the start of WW II, do you think the Chosen One will pull aside the Czech Republic leader to ask if the Sudetenland is available for sale?
Keith Law: No, he’ll ask Czechia to give the Sudetenland to Putin.

Jon: Do you think the Phillies should bring Spencer Howard up in September?
Keith Law: If the weather holds, I’ll see him tonight. I have heard the stuff has tapered off since he came off the IL.

NMN: Please weigh in on Joe Girardi using R+RBI-HR, in two-thousand-freakin-nineteen, to come up with an MVP candidates list.
Keith Law: I missed that, and oh my god, no.

Kik: What are your general thoughts of the Jays pitching prospects besides Pearson?
Keith Law: Manoah is next in their pitching prospect rankings. I haven’t seen Murphy this year around his injuries, but the stuff has apparently been legit for a starter … if he can stay healthy. Maybe he’s a multi-inning reliever, but either way, he’s a real prospect. I think there’s a big dropoff to their next arm – they have some intriguing bats in short-season, but the pitching is pretty short.

Sebastian: Francisco Alvarez’s stat line looks great for a 17 year old in the Appy league. Top 3 prospect in the Mets system?
Keith Law: Top 5.

Chris: Amed Rosario has looked better at dish. Is his glove at SS league average?
Keith Law: It hasn’t been, and maybe they decide to give up on him there because they believe in Gimenez, but I don’t see any tangible reason Rosario can’t be a competent shortstop – not tools, not mental skills. His regression has been shocking.

Steve: I know they won’t do it, but given that the Rays are locked in a battle for a wild card spot would calling up Wander Franco be worth it or would it be too premature?
Keith Law: Premature.

Johnny Utah: Any restaurant recommendations for Maui or the Big Island?
Keith Law: Never been, unfortunately, only Oahu and Kauai. Enjoy, though – I’m jealous. Would love to see Volcanoes National Park.

Matthew: I completed my first ever script late last year for a potential tv show and I’m debating writing a fiction book or another script about a redemption story and how love of a sport brought a family together from turmoil and I’m wondering if it would be better it being a book or a screenplay?
Keith Law: I feel like you may have asked this before … it’s really a question for either a literary agent or someone on the publishing side. I don’t know anything about it; I just writes the words.

Mark : What was the difference between Billy Hamilton as an amateur SS in the minors and Trea Turner as an amateur SS defensively in the minors?
Keith Law: About four grades.

Zac: Of the Erie Seawolves rotation (Mize, Manning, Skubal, Faedo, Wentz) who are starters long term and who is a reliever
Keith Law: Skubal, Manning, and a healthy Mize are all good starters. Faedo is a reliever for me. Wentz is in the middle.

John: Would you say the Phillies biggest issue right now is player development or bad drafting? Or is a combination? How do you quickly and efficiently overhaul and entire dev department or scouting department?
Keith Law: They’ve had very poor results in the first round in particular, and I think you have to start there, but it is also fair to point to all the players who’ve regressed in their farm system over the last two years as well. The system-wide hitting approach this year really hasn’t worked out.

Coffee Grind: New to French Press but such a production for one cuppa coffee! Buying coarse ground coffee at local roaster but when do u get accustomed to the labor of warm up cup, carafe, presumably buy a kettle with temperature gauge , wait 4/5 min, then have coffee get cold some 10 min after plunge?
Keith Law: I don’t use a french press – I use a V60 pour-over – but really, you don’t need to do all that. Boil the water, wait about 30 seconds, and pour over the grounds. Splash a little of the extra hot water in the cup so it’s not cold when the coffee hits it. Steep the coffee for four minutes and pour. That’s it. The rest is eyewash.

MikeM: Whats Glyber’s ceiling? Hes 22 and hitting for more power than anyone projected (juiced ball caveats apply) and seemingly improving. Is he in the same class of player as Acuna and the other young phenoms?
Keith Law: He’s in the same class as Acuna for me, although I think both guys have benefited a lot from the juiced ball and Gleyber has especially benefited from, uh, his strength of schedule.

NMN: What’s current boardgame #1?
Keith Law: I’ve been debating that this year, since I’m about 2.5 months from my annual top 100 update. Tough to dislodge Carcassonne but all else being equal I think I’m more likely to pull out 7 Wonders if we have enough players and they’re okay with the game’s slightly more complicated rules.

Hank: Can we expect to see Luis Robert this year? If so, what can we expect? I know he doesn’t seem to hit when you are there, and you had concerns with his hit tool in the past.
Keith Law: I don’t know if he comes up this year due to service time/40-man space, but if he does I expect a lot of inconsistency with some real high points. A lot like Moncada so far, actually, at least in terms of the production. Major league pitchers are going to exploit Robert with velocity in, in a way he hasn’t seen much in the minors, and he has to show he can adjust to that.

addoeh: How would you rank the Caribbean islands you’ve visited?
Keith Law: The Jamaica experience was top-notch, but it was all within the resort, not about the entire island (friends of mine who were born there discouraged me from exploring). Aruba is probably my favorite and the most user-friendly. Puerto Rico has the benefit of an urban environment and culture that lets you get the best of both worlds – beach in the afternoon, dinner or nightlife in the evening. Bear in mind I haven’t been to PR or St. Thomas since before the twin hurricanes, though.

Trevor: Daulton Varsho in consideration for a top 100 update?
Keith Law: Wasn’t he already on mine?
Keith Law: Also, probably not a catcher. Seems like AZ agrees.

Juice: Where do you land on Tahnaj Thomas? Is he getting by solely on velocity or is he a legit arm in the Pirates’ system?
Keith Law: Big velocity guy. Not enough of a complete pitcher.

Jake: What are your impressions of Bubic this yr? Has he made any adjustments you are aware of or just a case of needing to be moved up/challenged?
Keith Law: Too advanced for A-ball, but the stuff is a lot of average. Back end starter without real upside.

Moe Mentum: Just curious whether you’ve read Cathy O’Neil’s “Weapons of Math Destruction” and if so, what you thought of it? If not, you might want to add it to your non-fiction reading list.
Keith Law: Heard of it but haven’t read it. Thank you. Still reading Wolf Hall and listening to Vaccines Did Not Cause Rachel’s Autism.

John : When’s the best time to take anti-anxiety medication in the morning or at night before bed? Also, does clonazapam do damage to the brain? I’d take it everyday but I’m worried about the long term effects.
Keith Law: That will depend on the specific medication and your own body. I take escitalopram, and I take it mid-afternoon. I would definitely ask a doctor about clonazepam; I know benzodiazepenes can be habit forming.

Moe Mentum: At this point, I’m assuming Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer all cruise into the Hall of Fame in their first year of eligibility. Do you agree, and are there any other active pitchers who are also likely to get voted in via BBWAA balloting? (Greinke? Hamels? Sabathia? F.Hernandez?)
Keith Law: Yes to all three (and I’d vote for them). Sabathia I think will get in, but slowly. The others are probably all on the Very Good side of the line.

Alex: Would you consider Masahiro Tanaka a disappointment relative to his contract? 17.2 bWAR for $132,000,000 through 6 years seems decent. I think people kind of expected more when he was coming out of Japan
Keith Law: I would not. That’s a good outcome, especially since he came here with a wonky elbow and has pitched through for years.

Amir: You might have answered this before but where are you on the issue of legal sports betting? On the surface it seems like it would be great for state revenue but curious to hear your thoughts.
Keith Law: Hate it, but I accept it’s inevitable. Gambling in general is not a good industry for local economies; any rise in revenues from taxes or tourism (people coming to your state/town to gamble) will likely be offset by rising crime rates, including increased rates of domestic abuse. The flip side of this is that people are going to gamble even if it’s not legal, so it might as well be legal, taxed, and regulated.
Keith Law: This is essentially my take on prostitution … I would rather that be legal and out of the shadows, in that case for the protection of the sex workers themselves, since it’s going to exist whether it’s legal or not.

Beeds: Manoah, Pearson, Pardino, Kloffenstein, Kay, Simeon Woods … where does this group of pitchers rank in minors? Too 5?
Keith Law: Gah, I missed Kay. Sorry about that. Would go Pearson, Manoah, Kay, Murphy. Not top 5 in the minors, though. I’d say 15-20 systems could rattle off a list of names that’s at least comparable.

JT: I coach low A little league for 14 to 18 year olds (the lowest level): I’ve only ever let my charges throw 2 seamers, 4 seamers and circle changes.

The research seems to be clear on sliders being for the next age group up. Curveballs and knuckleballs aren’t as clear. Some sources say as low a 14 for curveballs is fine.

Thoughts? I value the arm over any win or pitch.
Keith Law: There’s some mixed research on the effects of breaking balls on young arms, but I agree with your conservative view. I think – this is a better question for researchers, I’m just cribbing what they’ve found – that total workload and avoiding maximum effort (don’t throw every pitch as hard as you can) is more important for arm health.

JT: You’ve never been high on Cavan Biggio, and certainly, there’s a lot to be desired this year. Still, his OBP is fine, his eye is excellent, and he’s got a 25/20 pace for homers and steals.

I know you’re unlikely to now be wearing his shirtsey, but do you have a little more hope for him now?
Keith Law: Not at all. He’s not worth the roster spot.

Jason: My apologies for not being clear enough. The walk led to runners on the corners with 1 out, setting up a potential double play by either Hechevarria (bad hitter) or Flowers (better, but really slow). With Hamilton on third, it doesn’t take a whole lot to get a run home with a ball in play, but a ball in play by Hechevarria or Flowers could have been a game-ending double play
Keith Law: Ah, I see, I did not understand the situation at all. I think I’d need some estimate of the probability of a double play in that situation to answer your question. My gut feeling is that we tend to overstate that probability in the general case, but perhaps for someone like Flowers it’s high enough that your hypothesis (that the out was preferable in this one specific situation) would bear out.

Moe Mentum: Nick Pivetta – the tools are there, but can he ever get results at the big-league level (in the rotation or the bullpen)?
Keith Law: The tools aren’t really there – he has never had a viable weapon for LHB.

Nick: Do you see Logan Gilbert making the M’s rotation by mid season 2020? Has been a fast riser this year and seemingly done well in AA so far.
Keith Law: He might be ready now, but they have no real need or impetus to promote him.

Steve: You mentioned earlier about your girlfriend and you going on vacation. You do a great job of sharing your personal life (you personally have helped me with anxiety by reccomending a book), have you talked about this previously. Please disregard if this is too personal
Keith Law: I’m divorced, and have been dating someone seriously (who reads my chats every week, hello my love) since the spring. I did discuss it in an email newsletter a few weeks ago but I don’t mind the question, since it seemed to come as a surprise to a lot of readers.

Pat D: It’s pretty obvious that we just need to cut ties with Puerto Rico at this point, right? I mean, they are constantly in the path of hurricanes, which is so unfair to the rest of us.
Keith Law: It’s sad when you can read that question in the President’s voice and find it totally plausible.

David: What weekend are you headed to AFL? Any reader meetups in the works while there?
Keith Law: I may go for the Fall Stars weekend (and the few days prior), but haven’t booked it yet. The change to the AFL schedule really screws up scouting plans.

Matt: Does Toronto have to go through customs every time they leave for a road trip and come home? If true, that’s gotta be annoying and a disadvantage over a full season.
Keith Law: It is annoying but how is it a disadvantage?

Jason: Keith…is Dylan Carlson a RF long term? Do you think he cracks the big league club next summer?
Keith Law: Yes, and probably yes.

Ridley: So…trade wars are a subject your educations would give you some insight into. Are there situations where they make sense, and, if so, is this one of them?

Completely unrelated, but any time he says “There is no one more X than me,” or “I’m the least Y person in the world,” that’s a helluva tell. I’d love to play poker with that guy.
Keith Law: The default assumption should always be that a trade war will damage both parties. You have a very high bar to clear to make a trade war economically advantageous in the long run, since they are always harmful in the short run. You could argue that a trade war with a country that is engaging in illegal or deleterious trade practices – we often hear of countries ‘dumping’ goods, although that’s often a misunderstanding of comparative advantage and lower labor costs – would restore long-term balance. I’m pretty confident that if you said every trade war was bad, however, you’d be right in just about each individual case.

Nick: Who’s your NL ROY?
Keith Law: With Tatis Jr. out, it has to be Alonso, no? Am I forgetting someone?

Pat D: Are there any potential Oscar contenders that have shown up on your radar yet this year? Would you watch “Joker” if it garners any nominations, even though it’s ostensibly a “comic book” movie?
Keith Law: Seems like the potential contenders, other than Once Upon…, haven’t come out yet. I’ll watch Joker if it’s supposed to be good, and not just “good for a comic book movie.”

Mat Ji: What sort of ceiling does Triston Casas have?
Keith Law: Above-average regular.

MTL: Mike Yastrzemski has been a good story for the Giants this season. Is he for real?
Keith Law: Extra OF, tops. Juiced ball has helped him, as well as just small sample size.

Zach: Do you think the ball has made GMs pause for a second for locking up young players? As a Yankee fan, watching Torres hit 40hrs as middle infielder, but if MLB changes the balls back to “normal” is he suddenly “just” 30hr power? (Yes the power numbers are just round numbers for this hypothetical).
Keith Law: To your general question, yes, it’s affecting how teams value players, and we’ll see that more this offseason (I think). Torres is pretty great at 20 HR, though.

OC Joe: @Johnny Utah: Mama’s Fish House in Maui is fantastic. Book well in advance.
Keith Law: Multiple people responded with this suggestion.

Kevin: Could Gilberto Jimenez be the Red Sox best prospect this time next year?
Keith Law: I saw him, and I like him, but I’d be very surprised if he made that large of a leap over guys like Casas and perhaps Groome now that he’s back and pitching.

Erik: how far along are you in Doctor Who? thoughts?
Keith Law: Finished S4, including the specials. (They really do lay it on thick when an actor leaves, don’t they?) I enjoy it, even though a lot of it is silly; they poke sufficient fun at themselves, and the point is nearly always the relationships between the Doctor and Companion(s), and the Doctor and certain other recurring characters.

Jay: Riley Greene has been struggling a bit at the plate since his move to full-season A. Is he still just getting adjusted to professional-level pitching or do you think it’s a bigger issue of swing mechanics?
Keith Law: That’s a huge jump for a kid who was still in high school three months ago.

Dylan: you have said previously that you do not believe zack collins has made any adjustments but Rick Hahn and the stats seem to indicate that he has (.365/.464/.713 with 10 hr and 21 bb in 33 games since he has returned to AAA compared to 9 hr 36 bb .2500/.374/.482 in the 50 AAA games prior to his call up)
Keith Law: I saw him. It’s the same guy. Be careful slicing that thinly or you will see what you want to see.

Roxanne: I hate Christian Yelich.
Keith Law: Roxanne, you don’t have to click that send tweet button.

Zach: Thoughts on non-meat alternatives reaching “mainstream” fast food restaurants? Yay for alternatives, but Nay for 900 calorie sandwiches?
Keith Law: Yay for alternatives, especially since many of these are substantially more environmentally friendly than beef. If you want to eat a 900 calorie sandwich, it’s your body. I don’t love policing how healthful others’ diets are; I’m more concerned with ensuring sustainable food and water supplies.

Tom: But seriously… What would you do if your parents were serious Trumpers? It really sucks since, you know, I love my parents. It’s just unfathomable to me how they’ve gone this far. It really is the Fox News effect.
Keith Law: I haven’t faced anything like this, fortunately, but I would cut off any family member who was a serious Trump supporter. You can’t approve of the white nationalism, the anti-LGBT policies, the environmental destruction in the name of profits, and still act like we have some sort of emotional bond. If you don’t think trans people are people, well, fuck off.

Julie : I’m an O’s fan looking for good news in the minors, and I realize I should take overall team performance there with a large grain of salt, but is there anything positive to be gleaned from Delmarva’s success this year? I feel like just being in a winning environment has to help the psyche a bit, although obviously that does not necessarily translate to success down the line. I know you’re not as high on Grayson Rodriguez as some are, but outside him and Adley, are there any solid ML prospects there? Also, it’s cool that Ryan Mountcastle won the IL MVP, but I already knew that didn’t mean a whole lot historically without even looking at the list, then saw that last year’s league MVP is already playing in Japan.
Keith Law: Adam Hall for Delmarva has also had a good year and I think he’s a regular. Some quality relievers there. There are some signs of hope in the low minors. I’m not a big Mountcastle believer, though; he lacks a position and his low OBPs are probably chronic.

Larry: That Nick Solak players I missed on article is writing itself.
Keith Law: After 25 at bats? Go call the people who tried to troll me when Austin Riley had a great first two weeks and see how they’re doing. I haven’t heard from them in a while.

Bret: Keith – has a certain type of pitcher been hurt by the juiced baseball or is it something that affects everyone equally? Thinking a guy who might make a rebound of sorts…assuming they change the ball back. Thanks.
Keith Law: Probably yes. Almost certainly yes. I would love to have Statcast data to explore that question, as I think that’s where you might find them.

Dylan: Do you see Nick Madrigal being able to sustain his 3% k rate in the majors next season?
Keith Law: No.

KC: Kyle Hendricks is a player you missed on. No biggie of course. Is there a way to ID any other 88 mph wonders?
Keith Law: He was in one of my year-end columns on those guys, too. I’d still bet against any RHP throwing a below-average fastball; their margin for error could be measured in microns.

Danny: Re comic book movies- did you watch/enjoy the second Christopher Nolan Batman- fun thriller with some great individual performances but you do have to ask why this dude is running around dressed like a bat growling like a schmo
Keith Law: The Dark Knight was fine, but I didn’t quite understand the acclaim. I thought it had one incredible performance, was generally well written, but still relied on conventions of the genre and went on a bit too long. I never saw the Dark Knight Returns.

Glenn T : At an A’s meet and greet event in Tokyo during the Opening Series in March, an A’s official hinted at the A’s returning to Japan within the next few years. Are you privy to any future plans MLB is considering for visits to Japan and other countries?
Keith Law: London again next year. Regular trips to PR/Mexico/perhaps somewhere else in Latin America. The rumor I’ve heard, but that is totally unconfirmed, is that MLB would like to play games in continental Europe. The Netherlands seems like such an obvious spot if they can find a facility, since the sport has a real following there.

tj: Now that you saw Clarke shmidt, would you say all things combined u like him better than Garcia?
Keith Law: I would not.

Tevin: Soroka for NL ROY over Alonso, no?
Keith Law: I’d vote for Alonso over Soroka.

Matt: How do we sign up for your newsletter?
Keith Law: Sign up here. I send them once every two weeks or so, when I have content to tell you about.

Sean: Do you think Jhoan Duran’s emergence this year is real and what is his ceiling?
Keith Law: Real, yes. Whether he’s a mid-rotation starter or high-value reliever, I don’t know. I hear both. Maybe that ‘splinker’ is more than just a once-through-the-order weapon?

Zach: Republicans/Trans people – I feel like most Republicans are pissed they “lost” the gay rights battle, so they’re going all out not to “lose” the trans rights battle.
Keith Law: That’s a good point, and at least has the ring of truth. Also, I think GOP strategists have found more ignorance of or outright prejudice against trans people, and they’re exploiting it. It’s venal.

Jon: When Conforto was coming up through the minors, did you ever view him as a streaky hitter? He gets bashed by a lot of Mets fans because of this, even though his overall numbers are still very good.
Keith Law: No, I never thought that. Not really sure ‘streaky’ hitters are a thing … a hitter’s hits are never going to be uniformly distributed throughout the season.

Paul: Is the juiced ball here to stay? Per that earlier question, if this is the new normal, and teams are valuing players based on that – it can really screw something up long term. For instance a player like Alonso, probably loses a lot/all? of his value if he is more of a 30hr guy at 1b.
Keith Law: MLB will almost certainly tinker with the ball this winter, but we can’t predict how, or what the effects would be. To your point, however, yes, I think we will see some contracts that look fine in this high HR environment that suddenly look worse if the ball even goes halfway back to where it was. I’m trying not to sound like I’m yelling at a cloud, but seeing one baseball in the majors and another in AA and below is kind of maddening when it comes to writing about or evaluating players.
Keith Law: Thank you all for your questions and for the many notes of support and empathy that I didn’t post for the public. I really appreciate the kind works. With my daughter back in school the chats should be more regular and I will try to get back on to an every Thursday schedule starting next week. Thanks for reading. Have a safe Labor Day weekend.