Hyperion.

I reviewed the boardgame Orleans for Paste this week, and my latest Insider post breaks down the Aroldis Chapman trade, including my disdain for the Yankees’ decision to trade for someone with an unresolved domestic assault accusation attached to him.

I decided last year to start working my way through the list of winners of the Hugo Award for Best Novel (there are now 64 winners, and I’m through 27) because I’m obsessed with lists, but more importantly, because it seemed like a good way to find the kind of big, immersive, ambitious novels I enjoy most, works that stick with me long after they’re done. The Left Hand of Darkness was one such discovery; To Say Nothing of the Dog was another; Among Others totally blew me away. There are duds, like Red Mars, but I’ll take a couple of those along the way when some of the winners are as amazing as Dan Simmons’ 1989 novel Hyperion, winner of the Hugo in 1989.

Hyperion is one of the most remarkable sci-fi books I’ve ever read – a highly literate, ambitious novel with an unusual structure and a delightful habit of defying reader expectations at multiple turns. Modeled after Chaucer’s Canterbury Tales and presaging the very similar structure used by David Mitchell in his nested novel Cloud Atlas, Hyperion follows seven pilgrims on a journey to the planet of the book’s title, where they go to meet the mysterious creature known as the Shrike, a trek from which most pilgrims do not return. The fate of their requests of the Shrike may connect to the fate of humanity, which has spread itself around the galaxy and spun off a splinter group of violent rebels called the Ousters as well as an independent entity powered by artificial intelligences that became sentient and seceded from man.

The meat of the novel is those pilgrims’ stories, each told in a different voice and different style (as in Mitchell’s novel), from the priest who reads from the diary of his friend who died on Hyperion to the private investigator whose story unfurls like a detective novel to the Consul whose paramour, Siri, is the original time traveler’s wife. Simmons infuses each of these characters, some of whom are, shall we say, less than entirely sympathetic, with depth and complexity, enough that any one of them could have carried an entire novel by him/herself. The story of the father who makes the journey with his infant daughter is just heartbreaking, and while Simmons probably pushes one sorrow button too many, his description of that father’s experience watching his daughter’s pain is stunning and never forced.

Simmons has also created, in one book, a literary universe the size and scope of that in Isaac Asimov’s Foundation series, one that Simmons revisited in three subsequent novels (about which I’ve gotten mixed reviews from all of you over the last ten days). His vision of a distant future is bleak in spots, but he hasn’t given up on humanity entirely, while his incorporation of unrealistic or impossible scientific advances (such as interstellar travel using “farcasters”) at least brings the veneer of realism – and many of these technologies are critical to the book’s stories. Simmons created a mind-boggling world, then put his characters through grueling life tests within it, showing us their reactions and their development in response to these trials.

However, Hyperion doesn’t deliver what I expected most from it: an ending. The journey is the story; the pilgrims do not reach the Shrike at the end of the book, and the resolutions of their various stories come in the sequel, Fall of Hyperion, which I understand departs from this book’s narrative technique. Simmons leaves so many questions unanswered, from Rachel’s fate to Hoyt’s real purpose to the Consul’s ability to achieve his goal, that even though Hyperion is an immensely satisfying work on its own, the ending felt too much like a cliffhanger to think of it as a completely self-contained work. “All Prologue” is fine and good up to a point, but giving us all back story and virtually no present works against the power of the book as a whole.

Next up: I’ve finished Michio Kaku’s Beyond Einstein, a 1995 book on the history of superstrings, and just started another Hugo winner, Lois McMaster Bujold’s Paladin of Souls.

Klawchat 12/28/15.

I reviewed the boardgame Orleans for Paste this week, and my latest Insider post explains why Trevor Hoffman is not a Hall of Famer (but Curt Schilling is).

Klaw: Once again it’s another chat bandit. Klawchat.

BK: If you were Carlos Correa, how much would it cost for you to sign a lifetime deal with the Astros? Essentially, what sum of money could buy you out of ever signing another contract?
Klaw: A lifetime deal would need a term – ten years? Fifteen? I’d be looking for something in the $40 million a year range for him, Harper, etc. Salaries are clearly headed that way anyway, and if owners have the cash, then the players should get it since they’re the product.

Dana: Do you believe that Brian Cashman is one of the best GM’s in the game? Joel Sherman noted that the Yanks have been competitive for 23 straight seasons. That’s impressive regardless of market size.
Klaw: “Competitive” is a bit of an arbitrary standard, no? I think Cashman has done some things very well, some less so, and he operates under some constraints that aren’t immediately visible to those of us on the outside.

Charlie: I’m a Nats fan and while I totally get why the Nats don’t want to go into the season with a possibly-not-ready Trea Turner and an unpredictable Espinosa, I don’t love the Murphy deal. However, if they used him to spell Werth, Rendon, and Zim once a week, I might like it more? What are your thoughts on Daniel Murphy as a part-time 2B, part-time supersub? Could it work? Or, now that he’s been signed, are they better just sticking him at second?
Klaw: If they use Murphy to spell Rendon for any reason other than injury, they should send the entire coaching staff down the Potomac in a leaky rowboat. Also, the contract was way beyond what Murphy is likely to be worth even factoring in further salary inflation.

bruce: Best Sabbath album?
Klaw: Has to be Paranoid, no? Title track, Iron Man, War Pigs.

Alex in Austin: Dave Stewart won’t be in Arizona in 3 years when Swanson is ready. Isn’t this a problem of aligning incentives? How do you fix short and long term vision? Seems like the only constant is the owner, is the onus on him?
Klaw: Swanson is likely to be ready by Opening Day 2017, if not sooner. It’s not a question of misaligned incentives; it’s a question of mishiring your general manager.

KlawFan: Higher Upside: Benentendi or AJ Reed?
Klaw: Benintendi. CF with speed as well as power. Reed is 1b only, has power and great approach, no speed and bat might be a tick slow for better velocity.

Pat: Aaron Judge’s struggles at triple A: small sample or very concerning?
Klaw: He has a specific approach issue – he hasn’t learned to cover the outside corner while he’s also covering the inner third – that explained the AAA struggles and even the AA strikeouts. I think he’s still got some work to do in the minors.

Shaun: Any restaurant recommendations for Walt Disney World? Went to Raglan Road on your suggestion and loved it.
Klaw: Jiko at Animal Kingdom Lodge is probably the best restaurant I’ve been to anywhere on the property. Via Napoli at Italy in Epcot is very good, but like most restaurants in the parks, very expensive for what you get.

Adam: Keith, do you think the trade for Jedd Gyorko signals the Cardinals frustration with Kolten Wongs progression, or do you see Gyorko as a backup at 2B/3B as well as a power bat off the bench? I would hate to see Wong not get another full season to see what he can be. What do you see happening in St Louis?
Klaw: Gyorko is a good UT who can handle 2b or 3b and fake SS. They needed a RHB off the bench anyway and Wong has been a cipher vs lefties so far, so platooning them right now is a good idea.

Craig: David Stearns has really focused on acquiring talent at the rookie/A ball level in trades. Has Stearns found a market inefficiency (teams don’t properly value prospects who are several years away from the majors) or is this just a function of starting a rebuilding process that is likely to last several seasons?
Klaw: I think the latter. Teams value those kids properly – they’re very high risk and a long way away, so the present value of their likely production is really low. Stearns can afford to wait. He might be able to rent a car by himself when they reach the majors. (Sorry, Dave…)

Bill G.: Hi Keith. You have stated that OPS is too simplistic a metric, and it undervalues OBP (I agree). If you were to uplift OBP over SLG, what sort of uplift would you apply to make this a more realistic metric. Thanks.
Klaw: I wouldn’t. Keep them separate. Combining them only obscures valuable information.

Bradley: Any thoughts on the Padres Rule 5 Draft additions. Sounds like they may give Perdomo a shot at the rotation. Do you think Blash makes enough contact for his power to show?
Klaw: Never been a Blash fan. Perdomo should stick as a reliever. Two pitch guy, doubt he can start right now.

Delvin Perez: Hi Mr.Law, do you think I have a chance to be a top 3 pick in next year draft?, I’m a huge Braves Fan…..
Klaw: That’s a stretch right now, but possible. You’re just 17 and very toolsy.

Archie: Do you think the Murphy signing affects Trea Turner’s Opening Day status?
Klaw: I think it shouldn’t but I bet it does.

PS: What do you think Rob Refsnyder’s ceiling is? Is it Daniel Murphy?
Klaw: Less. Can’t play 2b at all and really doesn’t even have Murphy’s hit tool.

Mikey: Thoughts on the whole Al-Jazeera doping debacle?
Klaw: I don’t see why we’re doubting the story. People questioning Al-Jazeera’s credibility as a news organization have been living under a rock for the last five years. No one covered the Arab Spring as well as they did – and they are hated by many dictators in the Arab world, which is as good a sign of integrity as you can have as a news organization.

Dave: Thoughts on Albert Almora’s improved second half?
Klaw: SSS until proven otherwise. Minor leaguers should improve in the second half if they don’t move up, since their competition is getting younger due to promotions. As for Almora, I don’t see any reason to think it’s not just BABIP-related; he didn’t hit for any power in the second half.

Roy: Of all the CF’s the Red Sox have, who do you think actually ends up in the position in a couple of years. (Assuming no moves.)
Klaw: Betts is the most likely to still be on the roster. Benintendi may actually be the CF, but Betts isn’t going anywhere.

Philly: Most industry analysts seem to be on board with the Phillies rebuilding efforts. I believe they have the correct course of action, but I am somewhat apprehensive that their returns on trades will yield more quantity than quality. Other than Crawford, do you really see anyone in their system with all star upside?
Klaw: Quantity isn’t a bad thing when the system is light on both. Randolph has star upside if he can find a position and they had a few arms in short-season ball with that kind of potential.

Andrew: Finally read Moneyball by Michael Lewis after years of reading you, baseballprospectus, and fangraphs. Thought it was nice of Lewis to mention you as JP’s pet sabermetrician and mini-rain man. Anyway, I found your review of the movie but do you have anything on the book? Would love to hear your thoughts? How things have changed since it was written? Was shocked by how little defense was valued to the point where Beane would have traded Jason Varitek.
Klaw: Book is a must-read, despite some factual issues. (The story with me never happened, and Lewis never corrected it even though I told him so after the hardcover edition. The quote about Voros from Depodesta actually came from me, and the story about a player seeing Mattingly at Legends Field is also untrue.) But for a general view of the industry at the time that avoids too much math and emphasizes the impact on specific players, it’s outstanding. Lewis is a fantastic storyteller and I could read his prose all day long.

Anonymous: 10 years from now, which current SS prospect is the better player? Dansby or Brendan Rodgers?
Klaw: Rodgers, for me at least.

greg p: How is the trade for Giles going to look two years down the road? A total heist for Phillies?
Klaw: I think both sides end up very happy with it but we will say the Phillies did better in the end.

Alex in Austin: In the next 30 years, do you see this antiquated arbitration system and underpaying younger players getting resolved? What if a new 4 team league is created that pays players under 27 their true value and attracted guys like Correa, Bryant, Fernandez, etc.?
Klaw: Who funds that league? Not that I dislike the idea, but the barrier to entry for a rival league today is probably a dealbreaker for any of the four major sports.

Anonymous: Can the Braves realistically compete in 2017 with the new stadium opening? It seems like they are loading up on pitching prospects but will have no offense besides Freeman and Olivera
Klaw: And Olivera may not even be that good. I don’t think they can compete next year but they’ll be sneaky good, and I bet they go spend some money next winter, or even on a late signing this winter if they see some value.

Anonymous: Re: Opt Outs from last time. There’s also the PR positive from the team perspective. We signed this guy to this huge contract, look we’re trying to win! Then if he opts out in a couple of years before he gets expensive, our fans (government) will hopefully have been stupid enough to build us a stadium to fill with less expensive ball players. #Profit
Klaw: I laughed. You’re not wrong about the PR benefit. No one realizes the opt-outs are there on signing day.

Arin: What are reasonable number to expect from Hector Olivera? 4th OF, Average, Above Average, All-star?
Klaw: I think extra guy. Questions on the hit tool and athleticism, and of course him bailing on Caguas (at least, not putting in the required level of effort) doesn’t look good.

Bryan: Just curious about your thoughts on Sam Travis. Seems to be trending in the right direction.
Klaw: I’m a fan. Can absolutely hit. Just not sure what the final power output is, and whether he’s just a good regular at first or something more.

PS: I know some teams are spending more on coaching staffs in the minors these days, but their pay is still well short of MLB coaches. Couldn’t you argue they are more important than MLB coaches based on the impact they have on developing players?
Klaw: Best coaches end up promoted out of the area where they can do the most good.

tw: How do you feel about your colleague’s piece accusing the phillies of tanking? Indefensible, I assume, given the numerous contradictions of his prior writings? Also the absurd recommendations essentially demanding they give out bad contracts again…
Klaw: Accusing? Is this even a question? They’re doing what the Astros did and I don’t see the problem with it. The system more or less forces bad teams to go that route. I only disagreed with Buster on the need for them to spend some money in the short term. F that. If the CBA incentivizes (I hate that word) tanking, then tank the shit out of it, my man.

Matt: Do you think college educated people truly think evolution is false and that creationism is true? Even if you take a class like biology or anatomy, it’s clear evolution is true. I just don’t understand how law makers can deny evolution. You had mentioned cognitive dissonance on Twitter, but I think there has to be a bigger reason.
Klaw: I think, like many science and even social issues, it’s about undermining the confidence some people might have in their religious beliefs. If evolution is true, does that mean Christianity is false? I don’t happen to think that’s the case, but if your religion tells you evolution is false, and the evidence says that it’s true (it is, absolutely, 100%, no doubt about it true), then you may reject the evidence because it could force you to question your faith, or your belief in God or an afterlife. I think the fight against marriage equality came down to the same reason. Even climate change has a whiff of that – how could a just deity allow our planet to go to hell like that? (I’m reminded of the old Robin Williams quote from God: “I gave you a nice planet, and you fucked it up.”)

Urban: Starlin Castro was not s good defensive SS, at least by the scouting side. Advanced metrics seemed to be kinder than the eye test. What’s his projection as s defender at 2B?
Klaw: I bet he’s above-average to plus there.

Josh: Is kyler Murray eligible for the next draft?
Klaw: Not as long as he’s at a four-year school in the spring. Next eligibility would be in 2018.

PS: Who do you suspect the Yankees will target at 19th pick this year (obviously way too early)? Quantrill?
Klaw: Zero idea. Teams don’t do that this far in advance. You can’t “target” anyone before the season has even started.

Stephen: No question. Just a thanks. Every question I ask you on Twitter you seem to answer despite what has to be endless mentions. Just appreciate it.
Klaw: You’re quite welcome. Thank you for bearing with me as I tweet a lot and some of it probably isn’t very good.

Jeff: Do you think Tyler Jay will become a successful starter?
Klaw: I’d give him every chance to do so.

Josh: Who would be your guess to be the number 1 overall pick right now?
Klaw: Dunno. Hansen, Groome, maybe Benson? I have no conviction on this topic at the moment.

Ryan: What’s your favorite way to prepare/cook a Pork Tenderloin?
Klaw: Ruhlman’s sear-roasting with lots of butter. Pork tenderloin has very little taste and is awful if cooked past medium-rare. It needs a rich sauce and a good crust on the outside.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Reason we’re doubting could possibly be Charlie Sly has recanted his testimony? Maybe that hits at the credibility a bit…
Klaw: Maybe a lawyer or two got to him. Testimony was awfully specific the first time around.

Dennis: Can Tomlinson be a super utility guy for the Giants, or is the bat just not good enough?
Klaw: I’d say probably not, but I’m much more confident that he’s not a regular than I am that he’s not a 400 AB UT.

Ryan: Why can’t I make mayo taste as good as bottled? tips?
Klaw: Use really good eggs and some fresh lemon juice. Try olive oil for the fat, or add another flavor like white miso or chipotle peppers.

Michael: What do pro scouts do during the winter?
Klaw: Sit home, stare out the window, and wait for spring?

Macon: Your thoughts on the ending of “A Farewell to Arms”??
Klaw: No joke, I threw the book against the wall in high school when I got to the end. Silver Linings Playbook hadn’t even been written yet.

Mike: Al Jazeera is great…the only people questioning the report on that basis are morons. I think the issue is more that the documentary isn’t all that great, and the allegations are based entirely on hearsay.
Klaw: Fair. Although people had no problems believing hearsay allegations against Clemens.

JP: did you see the new Star Wars? thoughts?
Klaw: Nope, probably won’t see it for a while.

Aaron: You were quite bullish on Amed Rosario’s tools last winter. What, if anything, has change 10 months later?
Klaw: Nothing. Tools are the same.

Elton: With Parks and Rec gone, what’s the next best successor in that line of comedy? Have you watched Master of None?
Klaw: That would be my pick. Watched the whole season. Last 5-6 episodes they really hit their stride, and some of the stuff on long-term relationships was expertly written. I was incredibly impressed.

Pat: How many SS prospects do you have ahead of Mateo?
Klaw: Quite a few. He’s a good prospect but getting a bit overhyped because of his parent org.

Anonymous: How likely is Moncada to stick at 2b?
Klaw: I see no reason he won’t.

Tyler: If you had to be a writer for any other sport, which would you choose?
Klaw: Is food a sport?

Dan: Hey Keith, my wife is having a brain tumor removed next month and I’m distracting myself by figuring out what to read during the hospital stay. I can’t decide if I should go with something lighthearted/easy to read, something harder (since I’ll have the time), something more bleak (since I’ll be in that mood anyways), or something more educational (ie The Sixth Extinction). What do you recommend?
Klaw: Good grief, that’s not good news and I hope everything goes well for her. In situations like that, I stick to lighter fare that I can truly get lost in – authors I love, or the type of immersive book where I’ll zone out a bit and feel completely “in” the pages. I don’t read bleak stuff when I’m down or when I’m away from home for a long time.

JP: will you see The Hateful Eight, or not a Tarantino fan?
Klaw: I loved Django but TH8 reviews are not calling to me. I don’t see many movies anyway.

Andy: How awesome would it be for Mike Piazza or Jeff Bagwell (or I guess Griffey) to be elected to the Hall of Fame and in their acceptance speech, admit to steroid use. Like, HA, you just inducted a steroid user. Now let’s ditch the stigma.
Klaw: It would be hilarious, although I doubt either would risk the immediate backlash that would follow.

Ryan: I grew up Roman Catholic, but am now Athiest. I’m conflicted on the direction I’d like to bring up my children. I’m thinking it might be good to bring them up Roman Catholic until they are old enough to decide the route that best fits their belief. Any thoughts or Advice? Thanks!
Klaw: Entirely up to you and your spouse/partner. The most important thing is for the two of you to agree on the choice.

Andy: How far along are you on the top 100? Like do you have all the info you just need to combine all of the things?
Klaw: I have done maybe 5% of the work. I start after New Year’s.

Pat: When Lazarito gets signed, where do you think he’ll pop up on your rankings?
Klaw: At 16, he’s a stretch to even hit the top 100. In all the top 100s I’ve done I’ve only had three players that young on the list, I think. One was Sano, one was Ynoa (who blew out and really hasn’t panned out anyway), and one was Villalona (whom I rated way too high and then he killed a guy).

Ridley Kemp: At the risk of getting into dangerous territory…What’s your favorite sci-fi book of the year, and do you plan on voting on the Hugo Awards this year? Last year was a bit of a mess as you may have heard.
Klaw: I didn’t know the public could vote, and I don’t think I’ve read any 2015 titles. I did hear about the voting last year and all the misogyny involved. Ugly.

FItz: Any thoughts on the Matt Bush signing? Does he deserve another opportunity (he did pay the price of his actions imo) and does he have a chance to be anything for Texas?
Klaw: I have no problem with it, as long as he stays sober and of course doesn’t drive (he has no license and won’t for many years).

keithlaw disciple: If you were a betting man, which player from the 2014 Draft, who struggled in 2015, could turn it around in 2016 (thinking guys like Gatewood, Harrison, Gettys, other)? Thanks!
Klaw: Derek Hill. Didn’t even get the full season to start to turn things around.

Andrew: You get to replace one major league owner, no questions asked. Who is it? Loria? Wilpon? Other?
Klaw: Loria/Samson. As much as I despise seeing Jeffy Wilson – you know, the one who allegedly harassed a pregnant employee because she was unmarried? – in a FO, Loria’s bleeding of the team is a problem for the entire sport, whereas the Wilpons’ antics are more of a problem for that one team. Sorry, Mets fans.

Nils: Hi Keith, did you get a chance to see Anthony Alford this year? Has he become a top 100 guy?
Klaw: He was on my midseason top 50.

Chris: Is jp Crawford more of a defensive or offensive SS? What is Appel’s ceiling? 1, 2, 3?
Klaw: Appel is a potential 2, but has specific and not insignificant adjustments to make. Crawford is more of an everything SS.

Scott in TX: Hear a lot on TV about LH power hitters teeing off on the low-and-inside pitch. Why just lefties?
Klaw: I do think there’s something to LH power hitters liking the ball down, but I don’t know why. It would stand to reason that this is actually selection bias in how such players are scouted and promoted, rather than some genetic fluke that makes lefties like the low pitch.

Tyler: Sorry if you have answered this before, but how exactly did you get into the baseball writing business after college?
Klaw: I didn’t become a full-time writer until 12 years after college, and didn’t work in baseball at all until 8 years after college.

Joe: Could Mike Shawaryn of Maryland be a first rounder this year?
Klaw: Area guys tell me more like 2nd round but I’ll go see him in the spring.

Jeff: From what I’ve read on the Frazier trade most seem to think Peraza wasn’t enough return. But if you look at top 100 lists, he would rank as their new #1 prospect in a fairly deep system. Do you think the negative reports might be overstated??
Klaw: He was not enough return. Not sure he’s really their #1 prospect either.

Ryan: Have you seen any of Making a Murderer? Thoughts?
Klaw: No. Next series for me will be finishing Jonathan Strange & Mr. Norrell then Man in the High Castle.

Toad: What’s one book everyone should read? Also which QO rejecting player is gonna end signing a one year deal?
Klaw: Non-fiction, something like Thinking Fast and Slow, or perhaps the more accessible The Invisible Gorilla, because they teach us about how we think and how we need to think differently to make better decisions. Fiction is a tougher call; my all-time favorite novel is The Master and Margarita, but if you’re thinking about some kind of imperative (“you should read this because it’ll teach you something”), readers would probably get more out of Beloved or To Kill a Mockingbird.

Michael: What do you think about Max Pentecost now? He’s basically been hurt his entire pro career.
Klaw: I think what you think. Got to play to develop, and he had a couple of real questions even before that.

Jeff: Your opinion on Smoltz joining Buck in the booth?
Klaw: I think it’s a positive. He will be an exponential improvement over Reynolds, who does not know the players well enough for that job. Color commentary isn’t easy and Reynolds did the job as if he hadn’t done any prep work. (Perhaps he did, but I can only comment on the results.)

Mike: Thoughts on Trey Ball of the Red Sox? I never see him mentioned amongst their top 10 prospects. What is his ceiling or did the Sox strike out on him?
Klaw: Too early to give up on him. Athletic LHP with some stuff, was much more raw when drafted than I think the Sox realized. Not a bust.

JP: how many of the 2016 draftees do you think will crack your midseason top 50? just 1 or 2?
Klaw: History says more. Depends a lot on promotions too.

JP: did Severino show you anything in 2015 that would make you believe he can stick in the rotation?
Klaw: He stayed healthy all year, so that’s a good thing. But the delivery issue is unchanged. I can’t name any long-term starter who used his lower half that little.

Rob: A few weeks ago in the chat you said that Paul Goldschmidt has caused you to re-consider how you evaluate a player like Rhys Hoskins. Can you say more about that? I’m less interested in Hoskins per se than the type he represents or the changes in your process. Thanks.
Klaw: I think the bar I set for that kind of player was too high. Granted, Goldschmidt has a grade 80 work ethic and no one knew it except perhaps the Dbacks’ area guy who took him, but still, I should have been more open to a player with the skills he did show and a swing that was mechanically sound and produced enough power even before he reached his peak. Also, I’m just trying to be less dogmatic in opinions and clearer about probabilities, so that it doesn’t become “oh, you said he’d be X, you’re wrong!” when really I’m trying to say I think there’s a 60% chance he’s this and a 40% chance he’s that.

Nils: Does Eduardo Rodriguez have the stuff to become a decent #2 behind Price in Boston’s rotation?
Klaw: I think he has ace upside but wouldn’t pin that on him for 2016.

Michael: Does Chris Davis have a market anymore? Pretty much has to go to an AL team. He may have given up a lot of money.
Klaw: I don’t see who pays him. As you said, what’s his market now? What teams still have 1b open and that kind of money available? Maybe Texas, but didn’t they see that movie before?

Matt: Corbin’s nasty slider showed the type of bite it once had towards the end of the season, with that in mind safe to say he wins at least 15 next year behind Greinke/Miller?
Klaw: Pitcher-wins are a horrible stat and I would never predict anything about them. Also, Corbin has what, half a year back from TJ? You think he’s ready to throw 200 innings or make 33 starts?

Scotty G: Any chance Davis goes to the Cards on a shorter deal – he would seem to fit PERFECTLY with them with Piscotty/Moss playing RF?
Klaw: Only if it’s February 1st and he hasn’t signed somewhere else.

Chris: I can’t help but feel like the top phillies prospects with the exception of Crawford, are overrated. Am i wrong?
Klaw: Without giving me some basis for the complaint, I find it hard to respond. Is someone saying Jake Thompson is the next Bob Gibson? Then yes, that would be overrating him.

JC: Are the Dbax being wise to consider Hudson for the rotation? I don’t think he should be anywhere but the pen.
Klaw: Reliever all the way. Double TJ, arm action is long, has had some success in relief, and they could use him in the 7th/8th innings. Good outcome for him and team.

Craig: There has been talk of Milwaukee trading Lucroy. Even if Lucroy won’t be part of the next contending Brewers team, is there sufficient value in keeping him around to work with/develop the young pitching staff that would outweigh any return in a trade?
Klaw: You could weigh that value against the return. If no one is blowing you away, you keep him. I think you only deal him if you’re getting back some major-league pieces in return. It’s hard to realize sufficient value otherwise.

Dan: Re: Brain Tumor – Thanks (for the well wishes and recommendation), was leaning in that direction. The good news is that the tumor is benign and we’ve had a lot of time to prep for it, as well as two very good families offering any support we need. Could definitely be a lot worse.
Klaw: That’s good to hear. I know recovery can be long, though; a classmate of mine at Tepper had similar surgery not long after we graduated, and if I remember correctly she had to have a second operation to deal with a recurrence. (She’s fine now, with two kids.) So I wish you all the best. As for reading, don’t be a weirdo like me, reading Lolita at the hospital while my wife was in labor.

Chris: Thoughts on Mets “let’s lengthen lineup and pray SP stays healthy” offseason? They’re putting a ton of pressure on Conforto to be the guy.
Klaw: Sandy etc may just have no money to spend to get a legit bat, and even so, I’m not sure where they’d put such a player – if they were to sign Upton or Cespedes, neither is really a CF, and the corners are taken. Zobrist sort of fit, but four years for him is too much, especially with Herrera right freaking there. They’re in a bit of a weird spot in terms of the roster – they don’t have a black hole to fill so spending big on a veteran requires a better return.

Bevan: How would you rate Stephen King? Is he an all star, average regular, bench bat or AAAA player?
Klaw: Never read any of his stuff.

Charlie: Re: The Murphy/Rendon thing – do you think injury-prone guys benefit from a day of rest a week? That was my assumption with the question – they have 3 guys with bad injury histories who play positions I’d rather see Murphy playing that 2B. If you think it doesn’t help, that’s fair, just wondering
Klaw: Platooning him with Werth makes some sense, and giving Zimmerman some time off might too. Rendon’s injuries seem to be acute rather than chronic, so days off for him seem to have less benefit.

DO: Bill James’ projection for Swihart this year : 287 Avg., .335 OBP, .758 OPS . This, to me, looks both pessimistic AND hugely valuable for a catcher. What part of his offensive game to you see developing first (power or patience)?
Klaw: Patience well before power and hell yeah I’d take that output. What does ZiPS say?

Chris: Does Hansel Robles have closer stuff? After seeing what Philadelphia got for Giles, I would listen on Familia if I were Mets given their, um, financial situation.
Klaw: Not sure he really has closer command, but he has closer stuff.

Bevan: Have you ever read anything by Carlos Ruiz Zafon? I’m currently reading The Shadow of the Wind and it’s incredible…
Klaw: I really didn’t like that book. The resolution was very pulpy and over the top for me.

Gabe: Long term: Confoto or Schwarber? Thanks!
Klaw: You really can’t go wrong with either. Last winter I said Conforto. Right now I’d say Schwarber. I reserve the right to change my mind another half-dozen times before we’re debating their Hall of Fame merits.

Andy: Do any of the draft pick compensation players make it to June? It certainly didn’t go well for the couple of players that did that a few years ago.
Klaw: Don’t think so although Davis’ market would concern me right now.

Nils: Hi Keith, no question just a thanks for continuing your chats here and wish you and your family a happy 2016.
Klaw: You’re quite welcome. Thank you all for reading and chatting with me even as I brought the chats here this year. My next chat will be some time in January. Until then, I hope you all have a safe and happy New Year’s celebration and look forward to doing this again many times in 2016.

Michael: Would you recommend a player sign with Boras as his agent? He obviously gets a lot of money for some of his clients, but he seems to really screw others. I imagine his day-to-day stuff is top notch, but it must be kind of risky to sign with him.
Klaw: I think the net result is a big positive. Yes, a few players fare poorly with him but the majority do very well, from draft day to free agency.

DO: ZiPS is more pessimistic on Swihart: .252/.297/.371 It’s definitely not out of the question for him, but that would assume little to no development in 2016.
Klaw: I’d take the over on the implied walk rate.

Alex: Did you have a chance to see Tim Anderson in person last year? If so, any thoughts on his development?
Klaw: Yes. Approach needs to improve. Tools are all there. He’s just in such a hurry to get out of the batter’s box.

Chris: The philly local media makes them out to be the next World Series core. I wonder if they’re even starters in the MLB.
Klaw: Lot of everyday talent/mid- to back-of-the-rotation types in the system. Crawford is the only guy I’d tab as very likely to be above-average.

Sam: Greg Bird upside? Was his call up performance legit (despite the small sample)? Were there any parts of his game you noticed improved? Thanks!
Klaw: SSS and I’d bet the under going forward but I do think he’s an everyday DH for somebody.

Craig: Do you ever read “pulpy” fiction books (i.e. Harlan Coben, Lee Child, James Patterson, etc.). Any that you particularly enjoy?
Klaw: When I go for that I go more for classics – Christie, Wodehouse, Stout, Le Carre (a bit better than pulp, but same general idea). I’ve liked the few Richard Stark “Parker” novels I’ve read too.

Mike: I smoked a brisket for Christmas. Do you ever use a smoker (I use the traditional offset with the firebox) and do you enjoy BBQ? Took about 14 hours.
Klaw: I smoke meats on my Weber kettle using fire bricks but have never done a brisket. Longest smoke was a pork shoulder, around 8 hours I think. Love to use it for my own bacon. Can’t beat it.

Matt: Keith What type of player do you see in Jamie Westbrook long term? I keep hearing his name a lot in Dbacks system
Klaw: I’d be surprised if he’s any kind of big leaguer. Not a shortstop, doesn’t walk, and got a big boost from the Cal League this year.

Al: Aaron Nola did well for the Phillies, but is he more of a mid rotation starter as opposed to the ace that Phillie fans want him to be?
Klaw: Maybe a 2. Not a 1 – meaning I don’t think he ends up top 15 or so in baseball.

Chris: Do you ever see yourself back with a mlb club?
Klaw: I never rule anything out but I don’t expect so.

Eric: Long term outlook for Joe Ross?
Klaw: I’m all in. Number 2 upside.

Mike: Do you think Erik Johnson will be an above average 4th starter for the white sox? Other than 1 injured year the minor league numbers are great.
Klaw: Agreed. 2014 was unfortunate but understandable with the shoulder injury.

Chris: thoughts on royals signing of Dillon gee?
Klaw: Minor league deal, right? Great pickup.

Matt: Do you see Tanner Roark re-establishing himself as a starter now that he will be back in nats rotation?
Klaw: Yes, I do. They have good starter depth right now.

Chris: Re: Gee-yes, minor lg deal w incentives. After Colon mets really lack rotation depth.
Klaw: They traded much of it away in July.

Rich: Did you take your daughter to see the Good Dinosaur? Where does it fall on the Pixar scale? Seems like a relative dud for them (comparatively at least)
Klaw: Technically Disney, not Pixar, right? Separate studios under the same head. Pixar’s movie this year was Inside Out and if that doesn’t get a Best Picture nod just fire the entire Oscar voting into the sun. Also, I haven’t seen the Good Dinosaur.

Frank: What do you make of Alex Jackson? If I recall correctly (which I often don’t), I believe you were pretty high on him before the 2014 draft. He’s been atrocious. Do you think he can figure things out and be an OF in the majors?
Klaw: He’s been atrocious but I am not giving up on him. He’s been working with a hitting guy I know pretty well this winter, which doesn’t hurt, and even if that weren’t the case I still wouldn’t give up on a 19-year-old with a good swing and real power.

Len Denver: Jonathan Gray upside? Can he still be a #2?
Klaw: Take the under. I don’t like what’s happened to his delivery since he signed.

Zach: Why hasn’t Fister been signed? Big problem or something along lines of wanting too much?
Klaw: Lots of good FA still out there. Kazmir hasn’t signed either. It’s just happening more slowly this winter.

Alex: Devon Travis, if healthy, a good bet for the long-term? Seems to have underrated skills…another undersized guy not getting respect (e.g. Betts, Pedroia, etc.)
Klaw: Not a fan. When did Betts not get respect? That seems revisionist to me.

Jake: Do you think Pierce Johnson can become a 4/5?
Klaw: I think he’s a reliever. Guy has never stayed healthy for a full season as a starter, his delivery is very hard on the elbow, and I don’t know if he has the out pitch to start anyway, although I am much more concerned about the first two points than the third.

Bill: What’s your thoughts on the increase of fact checking articles that come about after debates? They largely just some like clickbate to me.
Klaw: Pointing out where the candidates lied? I’m all for it.

John in MN: The Good Dinosaur is Pixar, was slated for 2014, underwent massive rewrites which delayed it to this year.
Klaw: Ah, my mistake. That explains why it might not have lived up to the Pixar standard then.

Nils: Hi Keith, no question just a thanks for continuing your chats here and wish you and your family a happy 2016.
Klaw: You’re quite welcome. Thank you all for reading and chatting with me even as I brought the chats here this year. My next chat will be some time in January. Until then, I hope you all have a safe and happy New Year’s celebration and look forward to doing this again many times in 2016.

Stick to baseball, 12/26/15.

I only wrote one new Insider piece this week, on Mike Leake contract with St. Louis, although I got a nice response from readers on my 2009 article on the shameful, insidious exclusion of Tim Raines from the Hall of Fame.

And now, the links…

  • Lots of vaccine-denier bullshit out there this week, like the mom in Texas who hosted an infection “party” for unvaccinated kids and said the illness is “meant to eliminate the weak.” Aside from how callous this is – one would presume she thinks her own kids are not among the weak – meant by whom, exactly? Did God send us the measles to wipe out a bunch of toddlers?
  • Meanwhile, a nurse and other vaccine-deniers in Australia have been ripping down vaccination posters in hospitals. If you catch someone doing this, stop them. Report them to security. Do whatever it takes. Idiocy like this breeds faster when rational people stay silent.
  • Some vaccine-denier tried to “argue” with me by citing the so-called “fourteen studies” on vaccine safety, a site and claim that originates with Jenny McCarthy. Well, as you might have guessed, it’s science-denying doggerel.
  • The Washington Post tried to name the country’s ten best food cities by sending its food critic to 30 20 13 cities this year. Yeah, I get that travel is expensive, but this would be like me listening to 108 songs and then giving you my top 100 for the year. Also, the list itself has a lot of very dubious opinions in it – the author goes out of his way to dump on New York City, which has about 8.5 million people in it, and dwarfs almost every other good food town in the country on sheer quantity. I asked the author on Twitter what he had at the amazing Cosme that didn’t impress him, but he hasn’t responded. If you don’t like Cosme’s food – the prices are another matter, but that’s Manhattan for you – I absolutely question your taste.
  • Iceland has an awesome Christmas tradition: giving and reading books.
  • The title of this thinkpiece, “We Are All Martin Shrkeli,” is rather clickbaity, but the message within, about how the modern pharmaceutical industry and its pricing structure deny critical medications to the poor and sick around the world.
  • The new Netflix series Master of None, starring Aziz Ansari and co-created by Ansari and Alan Yang (“Junior” of FireJoeMorgan fame, and MouseRat’s bass player), is phenomenal: funny, sweet, insightful, and different. One episode dealt with racism in Hollywood, and Ansari penned an editorial last month expounding on the same topic.
  • Slate has a somewhat scary piece on the evolution of creationism bills in state legislatures. If you live in a state where this garbage is legal, get active. Creationism and its Trojan horse of intelligent design are not science, and teaching them in any fashion in a public school violates the Establishment and Free Exercise clauses of the Constitution.
  • Boy does the Guardian ever do a number on Sepp Blatter and his corrupt fiefdom.
  • Speaking of corruption, the Las Vegas Review-Journal is embroiled in a scandal that combines plagiarism and a conflict of interest, which has led to more than one situation like this, where a longtime reporter has quit over these ethical violations.
  • Another thinkpiece, but a worthwhile one: What the Mast Brothers scandal really means to those of us reveling in it. I’m only in agreement with the author to a point; even if the victims are rich, or stupid, or both, does that make a particular fraud any less of a crime? It may color our opinions of the people who perpetrated it, but the nature of the fraud itself – in this case, Mast Brothers’ likely lie about how and where they sourced their chocolate – is unchanged.
  • The Atlantic discusses the schism within the Republican Party in a balanced way, without exulting in the party’s potential for self-immolation.
  • The New Yorker looks at the rise and ongoing fall of for-profit colleges, which takes advantage of our already horribly broken student-loan system.
  • Via a reader, Quartz gives us (and fixes) the most misleading charts and graphs of 2015.
  • My adopted hometown of Wilmington called in the CDC to help stem the gun violence epidemic. Of course, the CDC’s ability to help is limited because the NRA has essentially bought budget clauses that prevent the CDC from researching this topic too heavily or promoting anything that might lead to tighter gun control.
  • Tweet of the week – enjoy these fake yet highly credible thinkpiece titles:

Double Star.

My latest Insider post covers Mike Leake’s contract with St. Louis. I don’t think I’ll be able to chat this week, but will get the word out if that changes.

I picked up Robert Heinlein’s short 1956 novel Double Star just before Thanksgiving when the e-book was on sale for $1.99, but it was already on my to-do list since it won Heinlein the first of his four Hugo Awards for Best Novel. While it wasn’t among his first novels, Double Star was only his third novel geared toward the adult audience rather than the juvenile readers of most of his early work, and presaged his turn around 1959’s Starship Troopers toward this sort of more serious literature.

Double Star is the fictional memoir of the actor Lawrence Smith, a.k.a. Lorenzo Smythe, who is coerced or tricked into a job – or perhaps he just took it because he was desperate, and concocted the reasons later – that involves serving as a stand-in for a major opposition politician in the solar system-wide government, a constitutional monarchy similar to that of the United Kingdom. The politician is indisposed for at least a few days, and Smythe needs to stand in for him at a major function on Mars, after which he’s to be paid and sent back to wherever he wants, but as you can easily predict, the job lasts longer than Smythe expects.

Although Heinlein’s milieu was science fiction, with Double Star taking place on Mars, the Moon, and various ships, the science aspects of the novel are almost irrelevant to the plot itself, and often serve as a distraction. The only meaningful addition from the sci-fi setting is the hostility between humans and Martians (described in the book as an intelligent if rather horrifying-looking species), which seems like a strong metaphor for ethnocentric policies in the racially and politically divided human world, such as the nascent civil rights movement in the United States at the time Heinlein was writing the book. Most of the other science fiction elements could go by the wayside without affecting the core story; some seem patently ridiculous now (Heinlein loved to depict settlement and/or native life on Venus) or incongruous (he was fine writing about travel as far as Pluto, but has characters doing tabulations by hand rather than on computers).

Instead, Double Star is a character study that happens to have a sci-fi backdrop. Smythe/Smith is a fatuous, egotistical actor of only modest success, down on his luck when he’s first approached about the job, yet playing the prima donna in all negotiations with his employers/captors. He’s the stereotypical method actor, inhabiting the part rather than just playing it, but also manages to grow somewhat even as he’s spending less and less time being himself. The fool we laugh at in the book’s first half becomes a modest hero in the second half, as he’s asked to do things that would stretch even the strongest personalities. With Heinlein often saying that readers shouldn’t look for metaphor or subtext in his work – I don’t buy that, but hey, it’s his writing – I do think his own argument for Double Star would have been built around the character first and the story second. Here’s a cleverly crafted individual, well-rounded, capable of growth, put in a situation that starts out as difficult and ends up nearly impossible.

It’s only about 140 pages, barely even novel-length, and since most of the sci-fi stuff feels tacked on or superfluous I’m not sure about this as Hugo-worthy, although I’d guess the competition at the time was mostly pulp anyway. I’m not terribly fit to judge the book in Heinlein’s canon, though, since I still have two more of his Hugo winners, the more widely acclaimed The Moon is a Harsh Mistress and Stranger in a Strange Land, left to read.

Next up: Almost done with Dan Simmons’ Hyperion.

Stand on Zanzibar.

John Brunner’s 1968 dystopian novel Stand on Zanzibar – still just $5 for the kindle through that link, or on iBooks – goes much farther than most preceding entries in the dystopian genre, with a rich, multithreaded plot and a vision of a world headed for collapse rather than one already there. It foresaw the rising power of multinational corporations and the widening gap between developed and developing nations, as well as offering a particularly prescient take on the importance and use of big data and machine-learning techniques decades before such things were even feasible.

The core plot of Stand on Zanzibar involves the effort by General Technics, one of the world’s largest companies, to execute a de facto takeover of the economy of the small, neutral (and fictional) west African nation of Beninia, which is caught geographically and politically between two unions of neighboring countries, Dahomalia and RUNG (a union of Nigeria and Ghana). Beninia is poor but in its own way paradisical, a sort of third-world Switzerland that has managed to assimilate various invaders over the preceding millennium. GT’s effort involves help from the U.S. government via their ambassador to Beninia, Elihu, and the GT executive Norman House, an “afram” man who feels he’s abandoned his racial identity to play white so he can move up the corporate ladder.

Meanwhile, Norman’s roommate, Donald Hogan, is a synthesist – a sleeper agent of the U.S. government paid simply to learn: he reads everything he can in selected subject areas and looks for connections and patterns that only he might pick up. Yet he’s “activated” after ten years on the job and “eptified” (retrained) as an assassin so he can go to the southeast Asian power Yatakang to see if the country’s claimed ability to genetically engineer their children to create a generation of supermen has any merit.

These two plots are intertwined on the page but not in fact, as there’s no practical connection between the two stories other than their shared setting in an overpopulated 21st-century Earth where everything’s gone a bit backwards. Most of the world limits reproduction (like China’s now-discarded “one child” rule), and most U.S. states have laws prohibiting reproduction by anyone with harmful or merely undesirable traits in their genotype, from diabetes to colorblindness. Many women (called “shiggies” in the strange lexicon of the book) live without permanent addresses, living with sexual partners and moving from one apartment to the next. Technology is pervasive, although Brunner’s vision of a future fifty years hence was a bit further off in this department. And entire neighborhoods, mostly non-white ones, are unsafe to walk in, with riots breaking out frequently when the mostly-white police officers (in “prowlies”) come through.

The structure of the book follows John Dos Passos’ U.S.A. Trilogy in feel and structure, with mini-chapters between the narrative chapters that offer us headlines or snippets from news stories, or vignettes of side characters whose lives are unrelated to the main plots but still reflect the declining world of the novel. Some of them are simply unreadable, coming as lists or stream-of-consciousness nonsense, while others provide useful context for the events in the narrative chapters to follow. But the constant interruptions break the flow of the overall narrative and add to the disjointed feel of a novel with two unrelated core plots that are merely set in the same world.

The one exception to everything I just wrote is the introduction of Chad Mulligan, a sociologist and commentator who, in this novel, is a successful author of popular, anti-establishment books that argue in favor of mostly libertarian values, showing very little trust of government or corporations. Mulligan’s Hipcrime Vocab is an updated Devil’s Dictionary for this fictional universe, and like Bierce’s work the entries are often very funny.

Brunner created his own vocabulary for this book, mostly to its detriment, in part because it feels very derivative of the Russian-English hybrid Anthony Burgess used in A Clockwork Orange. Terms like “shiggy,” “biv” (a bisexual person), “mucker” (someone who runs amok – a domestic terrorist, in modern parlance) are distracting enough, but his replacements for a.m. and p.m., “anti-matter” and “poppa-momma,” reek of an attempt to sound contemporary to late 1960s readers. Most sci-fi novels attempt to incorporate some sort of new vernacular, but it’s far more effective when the neologisms represent new things or ideas, rather than simply renaming something for which we already have multiple terms.

Where Brunner succeeds, however, is with the two stories; either one would have stood well on its own as a shorter novel, and together they do at least present a more complete picture of this world toward which Brunner likely saw us descending. The novel would be a sociology student’s dream, as Brunner’s focus was less on characterization (it’s not weak, but hardly a strength) than on painting this world and moving the forces within it to explore the effects. That produced a novel that is certainly readable but is even more one to ponder long after finishing.

Next up: Still working on Hugo winners, so I knocked off Robert Heinlein’s Double Star last week and have now started Dan Simmons’s Hyperion.

Stick to baseball, 12/19/15.

For Insiders this week, I wrote about the Giants signing Johnny Cueto and the Todd Frazier three-team trade. I also held my usual weekly Klawchat.

Here on the dish, I compiled lists of my top 100 songs of 2015 and my top 15 albums of 2015.

Folks have been asking about my year-end gift guides, so here they are, once more:

Top 80 boardgames of all time
My 2015 gift guide for cooks
My updated cookbook recommendations
My all-time top 100 novels (from February 2013)

And now, the links…

  • That $10 Mast Brothers chocolate bar you bought along with your single-origin pour-over coffee at Blue Bottle? Well, it’s bad chocolate and might not even be what they claim it is.
  • Restaurant chain Fig & Olive, which had a salmonella outbreak in the fall, was caught using previously frozen food prepared at a central “commissary” and shipped to their individual locations.
  • What kind of person calls a mass shooting a hoax? Fortunately, Florida Atlantic has moved to terminate that nutjob professor, who has to be suffering from some kind of mental illness to so thoroughly believe these delusions he preaches.
  • Ah, the National Review‘s climate change graph was a big joke, and the Washington Post gives a concise explanation of why. I reviewed a book called Proofiness in June that talks about how organizations like NRO distort and manipulate stats to mislead the public.
  • Meanwhile, the New Yorker talks about how not to talk about nuclear power and climate change. Nuclear power can be a big part of the solution to both climate change and ocean acidification, but it’s already under a renewed attack from people who should probably know better.
  • Hate crimes against Muslims are surging over the past few weeks. It would be nice if we didn’t have an entire traveling circus competing to demonize this entire demographic group.
  • This Times review of the new book Lactivism by Courtney Jung details how unscientific and aggressive the anti-formula movement has become. There are even “ban the bag” movements to try to force hospitals to stop supplying bottles and other free equipment to new mothers – even though there’s little to no evidence to say breast-feeding is better for the baby.
  • A wonderful piece from the Times on the founder of the company behind the Hinge dating app going after the one who got away before it’s too late. (I’m also fairly sure I went to college with the author’s sisters.)
  • CTE isn’t just a problem affecting NFL players – Vice has the story of a D2 college player who died of it at age 26. This is the crux of my argument over Brandon McIlwain’s decision to enroll early at South Carolina: Not only did he pass up a guaranteed payday in June – actually, he passed up the mere chance to have someone offer it to him – but he’s entering an extremely dangerous profession for which he will not be paid for the next three years of his labor.
  • This isn’t new, but I just came across it this week: McSweeney’s imagined letter from Comic Sans.
  • My former residence of Arizona may be shifting from red to blue, thanks to the Latino vote – although I imagine the influx of engineers to work at Intel will contribute as well.

Top Chef, S13E04.

If you missed them, I wrote up the Todd Frazier trade for Insiders and then held a Klawchat here yesterday.

Mild spoiler: The Quickfire in this episode was far more interesting than the elimination challenge, both in terms of the actual task set in front of the chefs and the food that came out of it.

* The Quickfire takes place in the desert, using solar stoves and solar ovens to cook. The guest judge is Jose Andres, the Asturian-born chef who was one of the leading proponents of tapas (small plates) in the U.S. and who has lately been an advocate for fuel-free cooking methods like these devices. The winner gets immunity and chefs are assigned at random to use either a solar stove (a parabolic device with the ‘burner’ in the center) or a solar oven (a glass tube located at the focus of two reflective panels that form a sort of half-cylinder).

* Grayson wants to make skirt steak, which cooks quickly and likes high heat, but she has an oven rather than a stove.

* Giselle explodes her oven by putting water in it, which Marjorie says was “dumb.” While I understand what Marjorie is saying – you’d never pour water directly into an oven, right? – the GoSun oven tubes are made of borosilicate glass (like Pyrex), which has a very low coefficient of thermal expansion. That’s why you can put Pyrex in the oven or the microwave without it shattering, or even stack them in each other while still warm. Otherwise, they’d break. Now maybe Giselle didn’t know that’s what it was, and it’s still bizarre to pour water into an “oven” of any sort, but I’m also shocked to see it shatter like that rather than break into large pieces. The only thing I can think of is that the liquid she added might have been very cold. Any physicists out there have a better explanation?

* Grayson’s oven isn’t getting hot enough. Isn’t there a thermometer or some kind of indicator on it to tell you if it’s working? The outside of these devices stays cool (I checked their site), so you can’t tell by radiant heat if you have the right temperature inside.

* Philip is going to plate his dish on rocks he grabbed off the hill and rinsed off. That’s … peculiar. I’m not afraid of dirt or anything, but there might be things crawling in or on those rocks that you can’t see.

* Least favorites: Grayson’s steak was a little bit dry, probably from prolonged exposure to the heat in the oven as she tried to get it to brown; Giselle, whose dish never came together after the explosion; Philip, whose raw oyster wasn’t ice cold, with Padma saying it looked “like snot on a rock.” Padma was in rare form in this segment; when Grayson said her oven didn’t get hot enough, Padma said, “”Did you not hear when Jose said to angle the stove towards the sun?” I’m shocked Grayson didn’t just tell Padma to go fuck herself after that.

* Favorites: Jeremy, who made a seared halibut with pickled mushrooms and tomato vinaigrette on a solar stove; Wesley, who made shrimp with coconut broth, pickled onions, and sauteed mushrooms on a solar stove; and Isaac, who made cornbread, taking the “most risk of anyone, to use the oven to bake bread,” along with smoked butter. I thought Isaac would win after that praise from Chef Andres, but Wesley takes it, getting immunity plus a $10K donation to World Central Kitchen made in his name. Chef Andres appears to decide on the spot to give Wesley a solar stove too, saying, “We can change the world with them.” Getting these to poor areas in third-world countries where fuel sources are unavailable, scarce, or highly polluting, is a great idea, but I wonder if impoverished people will use them if there’s actual training required.

* Elimination challenge: They’re on a golf course, and split into two teams, each to serve a four-course meal, working on refreshment carts without a proper kitchen.

* Giselle and Angelina are getting pushed together, but there’s real enmity between the two now. I don’t think I realized Angelina’s “this bitch beat me again” comment from last week was said out loud to everyone – I thought it was from a confessional clip and was piped over a live shot, mostly because who the hell says that out loud while standing right next to the target?

* The chefs leave their environmentally friendly challenge to go to Whole Foods in their giant SUVs. Cool.

* So let’s move ahead to the dishes, since all we get in between is shots of the various judges cooking. Karen and Jeremy made a ceviche of citrus-marinated halibut with kumquats, passion fruit “caviar” (that’s just the pulp, so spare me the euphemisms) and avocado mousse (smeared unappetizingly on the side of the bowl). They serve the ceviche in a plastic bowl set in another bowl with a little ice in between the two, keeping the ceviche ice cold, as it should be.

* Kwame and Chad serve a tuna and swordfish ceviche marinated in tangerine sweet potato ponzu with a sweet potato emulsion and peanuts. Jose says a was a “little bit warm” compared to the other one.

* I think there’s a “let’s all laugh at how bad Padma is at golf” thing here, but since I have never played a single hole of golf I’m not picking on anyone here.

* Mary Sue Milliken (of the famous quinoa fritters, a big hit in this house) and Richard Blais are among the guests/judges.

* Grayson/Angelina made grilled shrimp with guacamole and corn-chorizo hash. Jose wishes the corn had been left uncooked to bring “freshness” into it. Grayson makes the “executive decision to leave the corn sauteed in the hash” because the corn isn’t that “amazing” (I assume she means it wasn’t very juicy or sweet). That “executive decision” is what we around these parts like to refer to as “foreshadowing.”

* Jason and Marjorie also serve grilled shrimp, along with summer squash salad, roasted eggplant puree, and a tomato/celery salad. It sounds like they nailed this dish, both in execution and in getting the right temperature and flavor profile for the hot day.

* Wesley and Carl serve a roasted pork loin, with (cooked) grapes, green apples, greek yogurt, and green chili. First judges didn’t like cooked grapes so they added some raw for the second group’s plates.

* Giselle and Amar served a spice-rubbed grilled NY steak with bacon asparagus potato salad and salsa verde. Chef Andres says it did not come together as a complete dish, and then just slams it to the ground when he says it’s “not maybe something I would be enjoying.” Ouch.

* Neither Philip nor Isaac, each of whom is making a dessert, can keep his burners lit in the wind. Philip moves his portable stove to the driver’s seat, which seems like a rather significant fire (or explosion) hazard. All his bowls are blowing away in the wind too. This doesn’t seem to be very much about one’s cooking ability.

* Isaac made a grapefruit sabayon (isn’t it zabaglione when it’s dessert? I think of sabayon as savory) with agave-tequila whipped cream and a lemon shortbread-almond-grapefruit zest crumble. Jose wishes there had been a little bit more grapefruit.

* Philip makes a makeshift tent to protect his stuff and serves the dessert from under a blanket. His dish is coconut pudding with strawberries, basil and rum lime mint “air” (it’s foam you knob) with a touch of serrano and sea salt. Jose doesn’t like coconut and strawberry together, and when Blais asks “is this the texture you were looking for?” it’s pretty clear the dish flunked.

* The best dish was Karen and Jeremy’s ceviche, and since Jeremy handled the fish and it was his idea to do the bowls of ice, he gets the actual win.

* The worst dish was Grayson and Angelina’s shrimp and hash. With fatty avocado and fatty chorizo, there was not enough lime to counteract the lipids, while the shrimp was a little rubbery and the corn just was not that good. The judges do the usual “who do you think should go home?” bit but neither chef takes the bait.

* Grayson is out. Tom tells her, “It was the corn.” Grayson is “furious” and cuts Tom off twice when he’s trying to give her feedback. Am I the only one not sorry to see this experiment end? Grayson was much more fun the first time around.

* LCK: Two surprise ingredients for each chef. Garret gets tomatillos and crisp broad beans. Grayson gets gingko (ghinko) nuts and coconuts. Grayson is trying to cut the coconuts open with a chef’s knife – does she not have a cleaver? (I just bought this stainless steel cleaver for $10 last week, and it’s awesome.) Gingko nuts can’t be eaten raw, and they’re mildly poisonous to eat at all as one of the chemicals in the nutmeat, called gingkotoxin (4′-O-methylpyridoxine) is heat-stable; excessive consumption can cause epileptic seizures and even death. Handling the raw nuts can also irritate your skin. Remind me why we eat these things again?

* Grayson serves pork tenderloin with sweet & sour coconut shrimp, fresh herbs, and candied gingko nuts. Tom likes the texture the nuts add to the dish. Garret made a broad bean-crusted branzino with wilted fennel (or did he say melted? I could not have heard that right), chorizo, and tomatillo salsa. Grayson wins. She’s also far, far brighter here than she was on any of the regular episodes.

* Rankings: Kwame, Jeremy, Carl, Marjorie, Karen. Angelina is clearly the bottom chef remaining, although Giselle isn’t far ahead.

Klawchat 12/17/15.

Klaw: Wake up from your reverie – it’s Klawchat.

Jeff: Not sure if you wrote about it, but reaction to the final package from Houston for Giles?
Klaw: I revised the post and think the balance didn’t shift, as Philly gave up a good 17-yo prospect in Arauz to get a better guy back in Appel (over Fisher).

Frank: Going to see Star Wars with your daughter, or is it not your thing?
Klaw: She told me unprompted she is not interested. And it’s hard for me to get hyped up when The Phantom Menace was a dud. Last time I enjoyed a Star Wars movie I still had action figures and a C3PO carrying case.

Brian: The Inciarte-Soler swap seems to be talked about a lot this week. What’s your take on that? Fair trade?
Klaw: I wouldn’t do that if I were the Cubs. Giving up on Soler that early makes no sense to me.

Nick: I’ve noticed that you don’t include many rap songs/albums on your music lists. Is that because you’re just not a huge fan of the modern genre or have you just not heard anything you like from rappers recently?
Klaw: Both. Don’t think most modern rappers hold a candle to the Golden Age greats. It’s become an overproduced genre without the technical skills of the Rakims and the 2Pacs.

Nick: Can Mark Appel still be a #2 starter? Maybe even an ace if everything clicks?
Klaw: I think #2 is a lot more realistic, but he needs a few significant adjustments and, for all Houston has done right the last few years, they absolutely mishandled him in several ways.

rangers: What do you make of DeShields? Love him as a Rangers fan, but he looked very suspect in CF last year.
Klaw: I think he’s a LF in the long run. Better player than he appeared to be this time last winter, not as good as he appeared to be the year before.

Nick: Why are we seeing so many closers getting dealt for sizable packages? Phillies got a ton for Giles. Is that just because Dombrowski set the market with the Kimbrel trade or are these “relief aces” just that valuable?
Klaw: Giles offers five years of control, the next two at basically no cost. Even if Houston realistically figures they’ll get 2-3 years before he blows out or sucks, just because that’s how closers go, they’ll be paying maybe $5-6 million total for those years and still retain the option to keep longer. That’s really valuable.

Oren: The Jays seem to be weighing, again, the Sanchez to the rotation or bullpen question. Of course, at this point, they’d need to add a couple of relievers to afford themselves the luxury of moving Sanchez back. How would you handle it?
Klaw: If they don’t fix his delivery by lengthening his stride this is a waste of their time. He won’t have the command to start and will remain an injury risk. Short striders get hurt. Taijuan Walker hasn’t been the same since he shortened his stride, and Tyler Skaggs blew out even after the Angels lengthened him out again.

Hermione: In your appearance on Buster Olney’s podcast yesterday, you seemed to agree that Cooperstown should use objective voting criteria and just present facts (e.g., banned for betting on baseball) on the plaque. What, then, to do with players already there with hagiographic plaques that elide their misdeeds? And, of course, who decides and how?
Klaw: I have no problem revising plaques of players already in, but would be uncomfortable with any process to remove players for non-baseball reasons.

Steven: How concerned are you about Luis Ortiz’s conditioning woes? He seems like the kind of guy who will constantly battle conditioning issues like Sandoval
Klaw: I think the problem in 2015 was that he didn’t do the conditioning thing at all. Looks like he just ate.

CB: More likely to make the Hall of Fame in your lifetime: Pete Rose or Alex Rodriguez?
Klaw: A-Rod. Rose’s candidacy is probably dead unless Jeff Idelson’s successor changes the ruling.

Steve: Fangraphs has the Indians projected to total the most WAR in the AL Central. Do you agree that they are the favorites? The Royals are losing some guys, but still seem to be better, and the White Sox should be drastically improved.
Klaw: I don’t like any projections like that midway through the offseason. It’s silly – like telling everyone they have two hours for a test, then grading them after 45 minutes.

Chris: Is there much of a defensive upgrade between Flores and Cabrera at SS? To me it seems negligible.
Klaw: Negligible. Seems like the Mets missed the memo about Asdrubal being awful at short.

Matt: Thoughts on the Orioles signing of Hyun Soo Kim?
Klaw: I like the bat and approach, doubt he’s a 30-HR guy here as he was in the KBO in 2015. Might be a nice bargain signing, guy with OBP skills and enough power to make them work.

Sean: Hi Keith. Big fan. Legitimately, how mad were you at Curt Schilling on Baseball Tonight when you said you’d be out on Chris Davis and he was kind of dismissive. Karl said you threw down your mike.
Klaw: I wasn’t mad at all (and I didn’t throw down the mic – Karl was joking). I think Curt was wrong. It happens.

John: Curious whether you have any thoughts on Martin Amis’s writings. I loved early stuff, but lately it often seems tedious to me.
Klaw: Only read Money, which was good, but I couldn’t help comparing it to his dad’s Lucky Jim, which is fucking hilarious.

Warren: 35 years old, bad medicals (reportedly), and costs a first round draft pick.. the Dodgers have to punt on Iwakuma, right?
Klaw: I assume so. They can’t exactly be surprised – guy seemed to be made of glass with Seattle.

Steve: Would a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League mean more in evaluation even though it is a shorter season because of the level of competition? Mac Williamson seems to have performed better there than at Triple-A, is it significant?
Klaw: No. Don’t read anything into stats there, especially for hitters as it’s a very high-offense environment (altitude, tired pitchers).

Matt: What are your thoughts on Cornelius Randolph? How high is his ceiling?
Klaw: Can really hit. No clue where he plays. LF I guess.

Ryan: What are the best 5 non-fiction books you’ve read this year?
Klaw: Undeniable, Paleofantasy, The Sixth Extinction, Charlatan (Pope Brock), and The Best Team Money Can Buy.

chris: Phillies have added James Russel, David Hernandez, Andrew Bailey, and Edward Mujica recently. Klentak’s short term plan jive with what you’d have done? Seem like good moves to me
Klaw: I like that approach to building a bullpen. Don’t pay for proven relievers when their failure rate is something like 50%.

AJ: Hey Keith thanks for doing these chats as usual. The Giants seem to be taking a gamble on both Samardzija and Cueto. Which is the better bet to be a good deal for the Giants? What would you say were the issues with Shark last year? The stuff seemed to be there
Klaw: Cueto gives you that shot at ace upside that Shark might not offer.

Ray: Can WIllie Calhoun be a future big leaguer, or will his D hold him back. The kid can hit.
Klaw: He will hit his way to the majors. Kind of like Randolph – it’ll play, somewhere.

Billy: You’re a lyrics guy. You love Alt J. Are you claiming/insinuating that you can understand the lyrics to Alt J?
Klaw: I’m surprised anyone can’t. Although the reviewer who trashed An Awesome Wave for Pitchfork totally whiffed on the various literary/film allusions (Leon, Last Exit to Brooklyn, etc.).

Scott: Statcast, any initial thoughts of the information it provided this year?
Klaw: Data is fine, but it’s not a substitute for analysis. I had readers try to argue with me on players (Cuddyer was one) by citing exit velocity. That information is cool, but without context – without analysis telling us what, say, 1 extra mph off the bat actually means in predictive terms – it’s kind of useless.

Bradley: Is Kenta Maeda more than a back-of-the-rotation guy?
Klaw: I think that’s what he is. Don’t think he’s a good bet for 180 innings.

MIke: Can AJ Reed be a difference maker for the Astros this year?
Klaw: I think so and hope they give him a chance.

Adam Trask: It seems the Astros determined Appel would never have enough deception or movement on his fastball. Agree?
Klaw: Agree that that’s what they thought, disagree that it’s true. They insisted he throw his four-seamer rather than his two-seamer. Well, what did they expect?

Craig: Is Garin Cecchini a guy who can produce at the big league level with the change of scenery (and no one blocking him at 3B) or is he just a Triple A player?
Klaw: I think he ends up a useful big leaguer, maybe even a regular, but I have no clue what happened to him in 2015.

Jack: Do you still think Franklin Barreto can stay at short?
Klaw: Yes, why wouldn’t I? Did something change?

Steve: Family of four (12-year-old twins) who love Catan, what would make a good addition?
Klaw: 7 Wonders.

Adam: Which guy in the Braves system is most likely to be a legitimate #1? Allard? Touki?
Klaw: Touki has the huge upside. If that all clicks he’s a monster.

Ed: Hi Keith, Soler closed his stance a bit after his return from the DL late in the season. It really seemed to help him on the slow stuff away – where had had previously struggled all season. While SSS applies, could it be that he’s figured something out that will help him going forward?
Klaw: Slow away is indeed the weakness, especially the slider moving down and away, but I thought it was more poor recognition than mechanics.

TedT: In your articles on ESPN, you seem to use WAR to determine if a player is worth his salary. How do you use WAR to do that calculation. For example, a 5 WAR guy is a 5 WAR worth $15 million/year salary while a 2 WAR guy is worth $8 million/year.
Klaw: I don’t do that. Dollar value is nonlinear and is team-specific.

AH: Hosting my first xmas eve next week. Little nervous abuot the big crowd and was looking for more ideas of things to serve while sticking to a semi traditional seven fish italian dinner. any ideas?
Klaw: Think dishes that scale. Halve 2 pounds of Brussels sprouts, toss with oil and salt, roast at 450 till browned. I like to finish them in some kind of sweet/sour sauce like a mix of honey, vinegar, soy sauce, and sesame oil.

John: I’m sort of playing devil’s advocate here — I vote Republican, but based on fiscal issues not the issues below. That being said… you comment occasionally on voting for a person or party that is “pro-science.” I get that nomenclature is intended to apply primarily to climate, maybe secondarily to a few other things like stem cells. But isn’t the science increasingly against the Dems’ position on abortion? In the time since Roe was decided, the science has moved dramatically toward supporting the idea that a fetus is a life form. You can argue that there should be an exception to allow for killing it (as there is for a soldier or an executioner), but isn’t the pro-choice argument that it’s just tissue intellectually dishonest?
Klaw: Not at all – Nye addresses this in Undeniable.

Totes: Have you heard the new Baroness? Not sure it fits your line of metal, but it’s quite fantastic.
Klaw: It feels like I should love it, but I haven’t found any of their songs that really clicked with me.

Jason: I have a friend whose son was throwing 80 last year and then grew 5 inches to 6’5″ and is built like a truck. Now he’s at 91 and received scholarship offers from some SEC schools and has been invited to scouting combines by three MLB clubs so far. Is it unusual for someone to come out of the blue like this or do you see a lot of late physical bloomers?
Klaw: Happens all the time. That’s part of why scouting 14-year-olds in the Dominican is ridiculous.

Evan: Will Jomar Reyes’ size preclude him from sticking at third? Will the bat play at first or in the outfield?
Klaw: Don’t think he stays at third. Bat could play anywhere if he reaches a realistic ceiling.

Warren: Dave Cameron proposed Seager, Montas, Barnes and Guerrero for Archer and McGee. Fair?
Klaw: Awful for the Rays.

JP: Keith, big Reds fan who wholly supports blowing it all up and did so 1.5 years ago. I thought it was the right time to trade Frazier, as I think he has probably peaked – but what a poor return. The Reds must REALLY love Peraza, is all I can come up with. Have you heard from anyone who liked the deal for Cincy?
Klaw: No, I haven’t. If they put Peraza back at shortstop I could see more value for them in the end, but still, that’s all you get back? Schebler’s an extra guy and Dixon is an org player.

David: You’re forgetting to end each response with #AndYouKnowIt
Klaw: Good point, thanks for the reminder.

MikeM: Has Gary Sanchez done enough this year to make himself a top prospect again? Do you see him replacing McCann down the line?
Klaw: Depends on what “top prospect” means. He’s better than he was a year ago, and not as good as some of the local hype seems to indicate. He has the physical capacity to be an everyday catcher, but the amount of work required to do so has, so far, exceeded his effort level. I was reminded in the AFL that he can REALLY throw, though.

Dan: Keith, let’s say tomorrow ESPN unfortunately goes out of business. What do you think you’d? What would you like to do in the short-term and long-term?
Klaw: I’ll write. Doesn’t particularly matter to me where I write, as long as I’m working with the right people. Not interested in working for anyone who favors clickbait over integrity.

Tom: Small market owner Arte Moreno has apparently said he’s out of the LF market. Is there much reason to think LAA can be anything more than a 83 win team?
Klaw: Sure, if they make a few additions. I understand your concern but nobody’s offseason is over yet.

Lyle: How much do you think the beaning affected DJ Peterson’s 2015 season? Any realistic chance of him returning to previous form?
Klaw: I think it screwed him up, and I also think he wasn’t quite as good as the high draft position implied.

mike: Board game rec for a soon to turn 7 year old? is there anything good a 4 year old can handle other than candyland?
Klaw: We played Carcassonne with my daughter when she was about 4.5 – she couldn’t win if we played normally, but we just focused her on playing the game and less about scoring. As she got older, she learned the game better (and still plays the app) and we could play it more seriously. I don’t believe in letting kids win games just so they don’t feel bad, but I’m fine with playing “soft” so that you don’t just destroy them. That doesn’t seem to accomplish much.

Marcus: I know you went to Harvard for your UG, but I’m thinking of applying to there (or Booth/Wharton). However I’ve got a job, car payment, wife, dogs, etc… It would be tough for me to uproot my life for 2-3 years in the pursuit of a prestigious MBA. Any advice? Did you work while you were at Tepper?
Klaw: Don’t do it. I don’t think full-time MBAs offer sufficient ROIs. Of course I ended up in a non-MBA industry but even so, unless you’re sure you’ll get the income boost after school, I don’t think it’s worth it.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Thoughts on Nat’s new bullpen? Assuming, of course, Papelbon is shot into the sun?
Klaw: Well they’ll be better off without Matt Williams warming guys up every day…

Ryan: I don’t mean to be the type of guy to find a silver lining in a domestic violence issue, but I gotta be that type of guy. If Aroldis were to get a 50 game suspension, reports say his free agency would be delayed by a year. Would that be a good thing for the Reds?
Klaw: That’s been raised within the industry too. You’re right: It is a silver lining on a situation that should not have a silver lining. And I would guess Aroldis files a grievance to get back the service time. But yeah, the Reds could end up gaining a year from him, which boosts his trade value, and the Josh Lueke situation proved that if you’re talented and not in jail, nothing short of a Commissioner-imposed blackballing will keep you out of work.

Dave: You realize that Bill Nye is an actor with a Bachelors Degree in Engineering and not a medical expert right?
Klaw: I realize what an ad hominem argument looks like. Dispute his content, not his resume.

Keith: Is it silly to think about d’Arnaud at a corner infield spot on occasion? Wright is not the same player, Duda can’t hit lefties, and the bat should play just about anywhere, AND reduces (theoretically) chance of injury. What do you look for in putting a catcher out in the field?
Klaw: I agree – and in October d’Arnaud looked overmatched catching all that velocity. He moves around well enough to play 1b or an outfield corner, I think. And maybe doing so keeps him healthy for 140 games.

Addoeh: What is the most stressful time of the year for you? Draft time? Spring training? Now (start prospect lists and FA articles)?
Klaw: Draft time is the worst because work includes late-night phone calls and my sleep is disrupted. Top 100 prospect time is very busy but I can still keep myself on some kind of regular schedule. Losing sleep runs me down very quickly.

John: Where do you get ideas for new music?
Klaw: Everywhere. I just listen to everything new that I can. Lot of good recs from readers over the years too.

Carlo: Can Jhoulys Chacín be a valuable piece for Atlanta this season, or is his arm too far gone?
Klaw: Worth a shot.

Manny: Are you still high on Rafael Devers? Many say he is Panda in the making and that doesn’t sound like a compliment.
Klaw: Anyone who says that is an idiot.

Kevin: Favorite Christmas movie to watch year after year? It’s got to be “A Wonderful Life” for me
Klaw: A Muppet Christmas Carol.

Keith: Rafael Montero is apparently pitching in a winter league game tonight. Any insight on what the hell happened to him? Has his missed his opportunity to be a SP at this point?
Klaw: Got hurt. Shoulder. Write off 2015 entirely and hope he’s healthy again next spring.

Scott: I feel like this deal with Cueto ends up being a 2-year deal when it’s all said and done. He’ll pitch well enough to opt out and go after one large contract, the Giants will let him walk, and they’ll use that money to pay MadBum, Panik, Duffy. If Cueto pitches average, the deal works out for SF, in my opinion. Thoughts?
Klaw: If that happens, the Giants might end up jumping for joy. Two good years and he opts out before the bomb explodes? Take it.

JG: Could the Twins acquire Jake McGee without giving up a Kohl Stewart type prospect?
Klaw: I think I could put together a very good package of their prospects without including Stewart or denting their 2016 major-league roster. But it might include Kepler and I’d trade Stewart before I deal Johannes.

Keith: Very much appreciate the cookbook reviews and your food blog posts. What sort of Christmas meals happen around the Law household? Do you partake in seafood feasts of seven?
Klaw: Wife is allergic to shellfish so that’s out. I might roast a pork shoulder or a whole bird. I try to put several vegetable dishes on the table so we don’t end up stuffing ourselves with meat and carbs before the mandatory pie.

Viktor: The buzz is dwindling on Reynaldo Lopez; has the shine (and semi-Giolito comparisons) worn off?
Klaw: Those comparisons never held any water. I think he’s a power 8th-9th inning guy, might sit 98-100 with a wipeout CB.

CJ: Who’s a prospect that you were so sure was going to be a star, but completely flamed out
Klaw: We don’t have that kind of time here.

Jack: You have been a harsh critic (and rightfully so) of guys like Luebke and Chapman. What would they need to do to earn a “second chance” in your eyes?
Klaw: I’d feel very differently if either guy actually served a prison sentence appropriate to the crime. Lueke is only a free man because his victim was so fucked up from the assault that she couldn’t testify and the DA allowed him to plead no contest to a much lesser charge. How on earth does anyone with a conscience sign that guy and claim that justice was done?

Oren: Are all of the opt-outs we’re seeing in top tier free agents just a trend? Or will they become the norm and even make their way into the mid-tier?
Klaw: Definitely a trend now, but I doubt they go away, and teams don’t seem to mind them.

Frank: Now that it is settled that there is global warming caused by humans, can we devote all of the research studying global warming to coming up with technologies to create cleaner energy that doesn’t cause as much global warming?
Klaw: I get the joke, but there are lots of clean energy sources that don’t contribute to climate change. The problem is that most of them are very expensive, and the one that isn’t – nuclear power – is considered a public menace thanks to a few very isolated incidents.

Anonymous: What is your outlook with Eugenio Suarez moving to Third base ?? Thanks
Klaw: I think that wastes his value.

Stu Martin: Curious as to what is your “go to” news source during major breaking news? I’m sure you reference multiple outlets but which one do you go to first?
Klaw: BBC News, even for stories in the US. I find them far more objective, with almost every national US outlet clearly leaning left or right. I just want to know what happened. And if it happens to come with a delightful British accent, so much the better.

Jackie: Will Bagwell or Schilling ever make the HOF? They both seem like surefire HOFers to me, but the voters seem to think otherwise.
Klaw: Bagwell gets in this year or next. Schilling gets in eventually but has to wait a lot longer. I think his social media gaffes hurt his candidacy, though. It’s unfair – voters shouldn’t be considering that – but with ten spots on the ballot and fifteen or more worthy candidates, I think he gets left off a few for “space” reasons that really aren’t about space. (And I’ll clarify, for the umpteenth time, I like Curt as a colleague and I’d vote for him if I had a ballot.)

Michael: What do you think the timeline is on Giolito? If he makes it to the majors this year, do you think it’s a mid-season callup or a September cup of tea? Thanks for the amazing chats!
Klaw: Midseason or before. He’s very close to ready. Hoping he starts in AAA and can use all his pitches now.

DO: I’ve seen so much disagreement on the opt-out issue this month. Why don’t people understand that the opt out, by definition, ONLY benefit the player and not the team. Seems to me that folks saying that the Price opt out is a good one for the tea are betting on A) great performance years 1-3, and B) a steep decline immediately after it. Why is this hard to understand?
Klaw: It’s easy to understand, but I think it oversimplifies. You can’t treat the phases A and B like two coin flips, where you have a 25% chance of each possible future: good A and B, good A and bad B, bad A and good B, bad A and bad B. The most likely outcome for almost every free agent is good A (good performance till the opt-out) and bad B (decline starts at some point after it). Players tend to get worse as they age. Hitters lose bat speed, pitchers handle smaller workloads and get hurt. The opt-out is a killer if you’re looking at the bad A-bad B combo, and in that case, the opt-out isn’t the reason the contract sucks – it sucked no matter what and the decision not to opt out is just adding insult to injury. I’m not disagreeing with your premise – price this out as a financial option and it’s a net negative for the team – but that the odds of the various scenarios are skewed enough and the dollars are now high enough that teams who previously would have said “no” will now consider them.

Michael: Ever been interested in going on a trivia game show? Jeopardy?
Klaw: I like trivia stuff but haven’t thought about anything like that. Might be a good way to raise money for charity?

Adam Trask: Sounds like you agree with Joe Sheehan that player opt outs for pitcher a dream for clubs. At what point to pitchers stop asking for them or clubs start pushing them?
Klaw: No reason for pitchers to stop asking for them – which is a sign that they’re not “wins” for clubs. Clubs would sooner push for shorter deals overall, I think.

Andy: Andy Marte has to be one of the biggest industry wide prospect misses right? I mean it isn’t even like injuries derailed him, just a total 4A hitter.
Klaw: Yeah. And I don’t know scouts who thought he’d flop. I’m sure they exist but I haven’t found any.

Ray: Alex Speier wrote yesterday that Manual Margot is a bottom of the order hitter. Do you agree with his assessment?
Klaw: No but I’d like to know exactly what he said … I don’t think Margot is, say, a guy who’ll be the 7th or 8th most productive hitter in a lineup.

Anonymous: Adam Warren. #3 upside or is that a bit too optimistic?
Klaw: WAY too optimistic. I think he’s a great swingman.

James: tons of people here in AZ saying it’s GREAT the Dbacks gave up Swanson and Blair! For Shelby Miller… What people dont get is they didnt get enough value in return… Like shouldn’t the Dbacks asked for one of the top Braves prospects in return? Instead we got an org guy
Klaw: The public liking or disliking a deal has as much impact on the deal’s ultimate success or failure as my opinion on the deal, which is to say NONE.

Brian: All else equal opt out is good for players, negative for team. These things are priced into the contracts though. So it’s not as if teams shouldn’t put them in deals, just need to price them appropriately.
Klaw: That’s a very succinct way to put it. And I agree.

Brian: There’s been some talk that Benintendi could make the big leagues in 2016. That seems crazy to me. What do you think his promotion pace is?
Klaw: Conforto and Schwarber just did it. Why can’t Benintendi, who was the best hitter in D1 last spring?

Jackie: It seems like baseball is swimming in money again. How far off is another round of expansion, and where would you put the (presumably) two expansion teams?
Klaw: I’ve heard no impetus for that – the league expanded in the 1990s to gain cash, but here they don’t need any. I think MLB needs to put teams into markets they’re not otherwise reaching. Cities that are seeing both population growth and rising disposable income, like Austin and Nashville, are prime bets. I’d also love to see a AAA team in Havana to try to seed that market for a long-term MLB team there.

Kevin: Why do short striders blow out?
Klaw: Stress on the shoulder and/or elbow, usually the shoulder, from the abrupt release. Better for everything – health, velocity, movement, deception – to finish out front.

James: You mentioned you went out to eat with a vegen in Nashville. Have you ever thought that eating animals is weird…?
Klaw: No, usually I’m too busy enjoying them.

Chris: Surprised BOS gave up on Cecchini? Thought that was a nice add by Stearns.
Klaw: Agree. One of the better stealth moves of the offseason. No cost, fills a short-term organizational hole.

DO: RE: my question about opt outs. Obviously the other factor is that any pitcher of a certain age and performance level will always require this option in order to sign (cost of doing business with high priced FA), but taken on it’s merits, the deal always favors the player unless something unforeseen happens. If Price opts out, it’s because he is definitely worth more on the open market and will (likely) leave for that money. Now, that’s not the worst thing in the world for the team, but it also means that they are losing value on the back end of the deal.
Klaw: They’re not “losing value” on the back end because they’re not paying for it – and it’s not like they paid ahead for it in the early years. If the player opts out, the team pays nothing and gets nothing. The idea behind the opt-out being a secret gain for the team is that the player may opt out and then play worse for the new team, producing a negative ROI while the old team saves that money.

Jack: what do you think of Kaprielian – will he move quickly?
Klaw: I think so. He’s that kind of pitcher.

Tracy: If the NFL and ESPN go to a digital platform, cable might disappear. Would MLB teams that are budgeting based on huge TV contracts be screwed?
Klaw: Those contracts are guaranteed, I think, so their short-term pictures will be fine. If you’re saying the cable channels go out of business, well, as someone who hasn’t used a terrestrial, legacy cable provider for any service in 16 years, I won’t be attending their funerals.

James: Have you ever been noticed out in public in a non baseball setting? Like the grocery store or a restaurant or something
Klaw: Yes. One of you spotted me walking around Manhattan on Tuesday. My agent got a laugh out of that.

Captain Renault: Shocked that the Pharma Bro might be ethically challenged?
Klaw: Terribly. Have to think regulators were looking for any way to get him after that price-gouging stunt.

Or: Kyler Murray’s considering leaving Texas A&M. Considering he hasn’t played college baseball, could he declare for the upcoming draft? Or would his enrollment at A&M disqualify him for the next two years?
Klaw: If he goes to a juco, then yes, he’ll be draft-eligible in June.

Kevin: Follow up re short striders: what you say makes sense, but I’m wondering if there are studies that have been done on these kinds of things and if so are they accessible to the public?
Klaw: Yes, there are studies on this. I have no idea if they’re accessible to the public.

JG: Take a stab at the figures of Harper’s next contract…
Klaw: He’s at least a $40 million AAV guy in this environment. Even that might not be enough.

Bret: No other info than this, but Heyman reports the Dodgers and Rays are talking about a Jake Odorizzi trade. Does Odorizzi seem like a good candidate to improve or decline in the near future, or does he seem to be what he is, a safe #3 starter type?
Klaw: I think that’s about what he is. Good fit for LAD, actually. But by 2017 is he going to be significantly better than someone like Jose Deleon, who’s already in the system?

Gordon: Re: opt-outs being good for the team: if Price opts out at the first opportunity, the Sox will have signed him for 3/$90ish. He never would have taken that deal if offered, and the Sox wouldn’t sign him to the back half of that contract as a 33-year-old. What am I missing about how this is good for the Sox?
Klaw: I agree. The argument is that he might be terrible right away and then they’re stuck, but they’d be stuck anyway without the opt-out. I should interject here that pricing options (black-scholes stuff) is outside of any experience I have, and I am probably even going too far offering an opinion like this given that fact.

Nowhere to Ace?: Francis Martes came out of nowhere, as did Snell for that matter. Do you have confidence that these guys can be frontline starters, not just on their respective teams but on competitive teams?
Klaw: I had Snell on various lists since his junior year of HS. He just developed a bit late, but it’s probably #2 stuff. Martes had huge stuff even when he was traded but I think the Astros may have been the only group to see him and realize how advanced he was as a pitcher. I have notes on him from last winter but didn’t even include him in my Houston writeup because he seemed like one of many far-away high-upside Latin American arms there.

Bob: Did your departure from Toronto relate to drafting Troy Tulowitzki?
Klaw: No, it related to my wife and I drafting a daughter, and my general unhappiness with the job.

James: Will you please bring back podcast this next year?
Klaw: I am working on this. It’s one of two major work-related projects for 2016.

Thad: Is Victor Robles just another hyped toolsy guy or is there something to all the chatter about him?
Klaw: Legit. Maybe more leadoff type because it’s probably not big power but exciting tools across the board besides that.

Jack: Is there any chance that Labourt can start in the big leagues?
Klaw: Zero.

G-funk: I want to get my parents interested in some more involved boardgames. Any suggestions for beginners?
Klaw: Carcassonne and Ticket to Ride are two good gateway games that make sense to newbies but offer hints of the world of games beyond Monopoly. Splendor probably does too. They’re all high on my ranking of my top 80 boardgames of all time.

Adam: Gordon, you’re only looking at one outcome and that’s the best case scenario. What happens if Price goes “full Sabathia”?
Klaw: But if he does, the Sox are screwed with or without the opt-out, right?

Josie: Raimel Tapia’s batting stance will not fly in the big leagues, will it? Seems a little gimmicky.
Klaw: I want to say no, but I said that about Pedroia back in the day (swing, not stance, but it’s the same general thing), and how’d that work out for me?

JJ: Does Trey Ball take a step forward in his development this year?
Klaw: I haven’t given up on him. He’s a good athlete who was very raw when drafted. People who call him a bust now are ignoring the history of guys like Snell, pitchers who scuffle for a few years as they mature physically and emotionally.

Jeff: The argument I see is that if a player opts out, it’s because they believe they are worth more to some other team through free agency. If that’s the case, then the team losing the player is losing an underpriced asset that could have been kept below market rate or traded for something else of value. Good for the player, bad for the team.
Klaw: But he couldn’t have been kept below market rate, right? If he could have, he would have signed. And the team can certainly trade him before he opts out. In the meantime, they’re gaining the surplus value generated by his performance above his cost and can apply that to other players on the current roster.

Jack: Ok, so ‘no’ on Labourt – is Keury Mella in that same category?
Klaw: Has a chance. Odds are Mella is a reliever but I won’t say no on starter.

Danny: If you wanted to donate some board games to a homeless shelter during the holidays, would you go with the old fashioned standbys or are there more current games that would be a good choice?
Klaw: To buy and donate? Just pick ones that are simple to learn, like the ones I suggested above. I would not donate games with lengthy rules that require lots of prep time or repeated plays to enjoy, since I assume the people playing them will be changing frequently over time and they might only play these games once or twice. It’s a wonderful idea, BTW.

Paul: Are you as excited as I am about Nick Williams in Citizens Bank park?
Klaw: Apparently not. Has CBP been raised to a mile above sea level? I don’t think so because then I could probably see it from my house.

Dave: Reds’ fan here – I’m pretty angry about the Frazier trade. Part of me worries that they panicked when the Chapman trade fell through, and wanted to get Peraza at all costs. The only justification I’ve read is that the Reds brass “loves” Peraza — but it seems to me that if the Braves and Dodgers are both willing to dump him (the Dodgers must think they got better value in the propects they got than what they gave up) shouldn’t that be a warning to the Reds that, perhaps, YOU are the team that is mis-evaluating the trade?
Klaw: Yeah, I think the Reds’ FO overvalued Peraza and probably the other two guys as well. Don’t see why they couldn’t have gotten a better prospect from the Dodgers here.

Chris: Is there a chance Tyler Austin could be the 25th man on the Yanks, as 5th OF and backing up 3B and 1B?
Klaw: No, and they took him off the 40-man because he hasn’t hit at all since the wrist injuries.

Ted: The Avi Garcia experiment should be considered over, correct?
Klaw: I was never a big fan – I saw a future fourth OF, which meant I hated the Tigers if I remember correctly – but he’s 24 and I don’t think they should just discard him unless someone clearly better comes along. I think he has more power than he’s shown but his OBPs will probably always be terrible.

TJ: You left Toronto because your wife and you drafted a daughter? What’s her scouting report on the 20-80 scale?
Klaw: She’s an 80 daughter except when it comes to doing her homework.

That Guy: Keith, I ask this of you as a guy who’s been to many more MiLB parks than me. I sort of thought everything would be more minor at them — including concession prices. That has proved not to be the case, at least in my experience. Is my sample size too small or is this just the way it is?
Klaw: I almost never get food at minor league parks and of course I don’t drink there, so I don’t know. Maybe their pricing model is to charge a pittance for admission and make up for it with higher margins on food and beverage?

R: Any chance Glasnow gets a call up this year?
Klaw: I think it’s a lock if he’s not hurt.

Steve: In your opinion, was part of Theo’s game plan this offseason to improve specifically at the expense of the Cardinals, or do you think that is just how it worked out?
Klaw: I think it was all just very convenient. I doubt he wanted to give St. Louis two supplemental draft picks.

James: Ever eat fast food?
Klaw: Extremely rarely and it’s not a pleasant experience when i do. I’ve had fast food once in the last two months – Panda Express, because there was nothing else around I could stomach – and it was not good.

chris: Is Goeddel a, say, Piscotty-type player? What do you expect we see from him?
Klaw: I don’t see any similarities there. I think Goeddel can stick as a fourth outfielder. And if not, well, his dad’s a billionaire and one of the smartest men in the world so I’m sure Tyler will be OK.

Grant: Twins announced they are adding netting above the dugouts next year. Good call?
Klaw: I’m completely in favor of this.

Bob: I was due to give a paper at a conference in Rome; they’ve since asked me to present a poster instead. Should I be miffed, or . . . is going to Rome more important?
Klaw: Dude, you’re going to Rome. For a trip there I’d present a roll of toilet paper.

Klaw: And that’s all for this week’s chat – thank you all as always for all of your questions. I may try to sneak in a chat before Christmas, so please stay tuned to my Twitter account and Facebook page for any announcements. Thanks for reading!

Top 100 songs of 2015.

As with all of my music lists, this represents my personal preference. If I don’t like a song, it’s not here. That wipes out some critically-acclaimed artists’ 2014 releases entirely, including Sufjan Stevens, Kendrick Lamar, Drake (are you kidding me with this?), Deafheaven, Father John Misty, and The Weeknd. Other folks liked that stuff. I didn’t.

The top 100 playlist has all tracks ordered from 100 to 1; I excluded one song, Everything Everything’s “Regret,” from the list because it’s not technically available in the United States and isn’t on Spotify here either.

You can alsy try this direct Spotify link if that doesn’t work.

Here’s last year’s top 100, andmy top 15 albums of 2015; I refer to both links numerous times below.

100. Heartless Bastards – Gates of Dawn. A bluesy four-piece from Cincinnati with a fantastic name, Heartless Bastards have been around for a decade, but this was the first time they hit my radar, with a yearning, gloomy guitar-driven track.

99. Hinds – Garden. This quartet from Barcelona has had a ton of hype that might exceed the quality of their output, but I find it hard to resist their ebullient acoustic-folk sound and their crude-by-design vocals.

98. Unknown Mortal Orchestra – Can’t Keep Checking My Phone. UMO’s sound varies widely across their output, but when they click, as they do here, it’s the vocal hook that keeps you coming back.

97. Battles – The Yabba. Incredibly experimental and, well, just flat-out weird, but that’s Battles’ whole output, isn’t it? Just bear with the intro, which sounds like some sort of test pattern, to get to the meat.

96. Rose Windows – Glory Glory. This Seattle-based psychedelic rock band called it quits abruptly in March, just weeks before their second album dropped, although singer/songwriter Chris Cheveyo is already in a new outfit called Dræmhouse. In the meantime, this was Rose Windows’ best song, a blues-rock number reminiscent of the best work of Trouble.

95. Drenge – Favourite Son. Their second album barely made my top 15 albums of 2015, and this was the best track by virtue of being the most like their first album – fast, angry, a bit obnoxious, yet underneath all the youthful arrogance, undeniably melodic.

94. Boxed In – Mystery. It’s a bit sparse, but this single from Oli Bayston, who records as Boxed In, has a great little hook in the keyboard line that brings you into the song and a bigger one in the chorus, kind of like a Bombay Bicycle Club track but more focused and less experimental.

93. Floating Points – Peroration Six. Speaking of experimental, Floating Points, the nom de music of English musician and neuroscientist (!) Sam Shepherd, is way out there too, but Shepherd goes the electronic route rather than following Battles’ rock-based approach. It’s not trance music, but the vibe is trance, although nothing is as potent here as the sudden end of the crescendo of sound with ten seconds left in the track.

92. The Gills – Rubberband. A fun hybrid of a very standard garage-punk song and heavy blues rock, as if two forces were competing to pull the song in their separate directions.

91. Ten Commandos – Staring Down the Dust. I was hoping for a bit more from this supergroup of members of Soundgarden, Pearl Jam, and QoTSA, but the album is very light on memorable hooks; this track, featuring former Screaming Trees vocalist Mark Lanegan, is by far its best.

90. Ghost BC – From the Pinnacle to the Pit. I went back and forth between this and “Cirice” as the album’s top track over the last few weeks, but while “Cirice” got a little airplay and is the more accessible song, this one is the superior track musically – although none of their lyrics, most of which sound like a ten-year-old obsessed with Satanism wrote them, do them any credit.

89. Total Babes – Blurred Time. The other guys from Cloud Nothings made a band and a record and no one seemed to pay any attention – but me, of course. Unsurprisingly, it sounds a lot like Cloud Nothings, but with a purer energy and less of the thrown-together feel of Dylan Baldi’s weaker material.

88. The Little Secrets – All I Need. This British duo has released exactly one song as far as I can tell, and I’m not sure if they’re even signed anywhere, but I couldn’t get enough of this track, which reminded me both in melody and in the sound of Stacy Jo’s vocals of the late, lamented Velocity Girl.

87. Sunflower Bean – Wall Watcher. I’m definitely drawn to groups that seem inspired by a couple of specific genres from my youth – late-70s British metal, 1980s New Wave and post-punk, and early-’90s grunge. Sunflower Bean definitely draw on the latter, more on the Mudhoney/Seaweed side of the house than the kind of grunge that crossed over into the mainstream, which is probably why this sounds fresh even though it’s rooted in a familiar sound.

86. Zhu – Hold Up, Wait a Minute. There are a few songs on here that I expect to get some flack for including, led by this one, which features Bone Thugs-N-Harmony and Trombone Shorty. I think it’s incredibly inventive and catchy while also feeding some of my nostalgia yen with some dope rhymes from the members of Bone Thugs and a brief nod to “Billie Jean” when the boys start singing. I could have used more Trombone Shorty, though.

85. Wolf Alice – Freazy. This album is so strong and so even that I could have slipped a number of songs into this spot, including the Grammy-nominated “Moaning Lisa Smile” or the stop-and-start “My Love’s Whore” (which has a tremendous coda), but the way Ellie Rowsell sing-talks this chorus is the album’s best earworm and also gives the disc its title.

84. Bloc Party – The Love Within. Bloc Party’s fifth album, Hymns, is due out in late January, and this lead track gives me hope that it’ll be miles above their disappointing fourth record, and more in line with Kele’s electronic-heavy, more experimental solo work.

83. Wavves – Heavy Metal Detox. Sneering California punk-pop with some big hooks all across the album; this track, the opener, presages several of the later ones and packs the most punch of all.

82. Veruca Salt – Laughing in the Sugar Bowl. The album was a huge letdown but this one single showed Louise and Nina recapturing their old magic for two minutes in a track that fits just fine between “Volcano Girls” and “Seether.”

81. Of Montreal – Bassem Sabry. I dig a lot of experimental music, but a lot of Of Montreal’s work goes a bit over my head – I know it’s good, but I just can’t quite get into it. “Bassem Sabry” wraps up that experimentation in a funk-rock track that has the feel of improvisational jazz but keeps the structure tight enough to feel familiar.

80. Orchid – Helicopters. You could say they’re highly derivative of Black Sabbath, to which I would respond by asking what the hell is wrong with that?

79. Animal Collective – FloridaDa. Much like Of Montreal, Animal Collective produces some wild stuff that manages to stray beyond the boundaries of what I can digest and enjoy – it’s a me problem, so to speak – but when they confine their sound into more conventional song structures, as they did on “My Girls,” there are few artists that can match their ingenuity. This lead single from their album Painting With, due out February 19th, has a very traditional structure, but the layers of sound here are like little else I’ve heard.

78. The Creases – Point. Another indie-pop act out of Australia, this time out of Brisbane, the Creases don’t seem to have made a dent here in the U.S. yet even though this is their second great jangle-pop track in two years, with “Static Lines” making my top 100 last year.

77. Kero Kero Bonito – Picture This. The sound is very J-Pop, especially with lead singer Sarah Midori Perry singing and rapping in both English and Japanese, but there’s an ironic undercurrent to the lyrics, mocking the selfie phenomenon from within and blunting the saccharine nature of the music.

76. Young Fathers – Shame. The 2014 Mercury Prize winners dropped their second album a few months after they received that award, continuing in the same vein of melding hip-hop with alternative rock, reminiscent of earlier TV on the Radio releases but lyrics that are rapped rather than sung.

75. Twerps – Back to You. More Australian jangle-pop, dancing on the edge of catchy and annoying, and the best track from another of my top albums of the year.

74. Shy Technology – High Strung. Shy Technology seems to reclaim the earnest piano-driven emo sound of the 1990s from the bastardized versions we hear on pop radio (looking at you, Gavin DeGraw), with stronger lyrics than almost any other artist in this vein.

73. Speedy Ortiz – Raising the Skate. Sadie Dupuis is a minor heroine of mine, resurrecting the half-dissonant noise-pop sound of artists like Helium that came and went way too fast in the mid-1990s, drowned in a wave of Britpop that crowded it out of even alternative radio slots. There are great melodies underneath the apparent cacophony of most Speedy Ortiz songs; both this and “Graduates” were highlights from their second album.

72. Courtney Barnett – Elevator Operator. The lyrics … I mean, I can’t get over how brilliant Barnett is, especially for someone so young. She’s an incredibly gifted storyteller and her first album (my #2 album of 2015) saw her incorporate heavier rock melodies to craft a masterful full-length debut.

71. Belle & Sebastian – Allie. Stuart Murdoch is at his best when setting dark stories to sunny melodies, as in this track about a disturbed young woman who tries to run away in response to news stories of bombings and terrorism.

70. The National – Sunshine on My Back. The side project El Vy didn’t do it for me – again, it’s Matt Berninger’s laconic delivery that just turns me off – but this one-off single featuring Sharon Van Etten shows that they can craft some really beautiful pop music.

69. Grimes – REALiTi. We got a demo version of this song in March from the album Grimes recorded and deleted, then got a slicker version when she finally released the amazing “Art Angels.” I think I prefer the rawer first attempt, although it’s such a great song it still works even though the cleaner production took off some of the edge.

68. Viet Cong – Silhouettes. There’s a strong Interpol vibe here, blended with some post-punk elements along the lines of Television. The band announced in September that they intended to change their name due to the negative connotations of their current one, which surprised me … it’s not like they named themselves Khmer Rouge, which was an actual punk band in the early 1980s.

67. Daughter – Numbers. This London trio may be about to cross over in a huge way, based on the two lead singles from their album Not to Disappear, due out on January 15th. It brings me back a bit to Coldplay’s first album, Parachutes, which couldn’t be more different from the disposable pop act they’ve become – they created suspense and intensity even in softer soundscapes, and Daughter has that same knack, along with much better lyrics.

66. Mourn – Gertrudis, Get Through This!. Another quartet of teenagers from Barcelona, Mourn go the punk route, melding deliberate dissonance with this wonderful sneering arrogance to create something that sounds new even though this kind of fusion has been around for decades.

65. CHVRCHES – Make Them Gold. The best showcase of Lauren Mayberry’s voice on their hugely successful second album, Every Open Eye, one of my top five albums of the year.

64. Telekinesis – Sylvia. Michael Lerner, who records as Telekinesis, changed his entire sound for this album, Ad Infinitum, going all-in on an homage to classic new wave sounds, very heavy on the synths. This and “In a Future World” were both standouts.

63. Sons of Huns – An Evil Unseen. Their album While Sleeping, Stay Awake just missed the cut for my best albums of the year, but if you like old-school thrash with some 1970s psych-rock elements, I strongly recommend it. This track had the best hook, whereas most of the album struck me as more atmospheric but less immediately catchy.

62. Of Monsters and Men – Crystals. I mentioned on the albums ranking that I thought this LP was somewhat maligned because it wasn’t like their first record, which was poppy and accessible but certainly became repetitive by the time you reached “The Lake House” near its conclusion. “Crystals” was the transitional track here, bringing back some of the harmonies from My Head is an Animal while introducing the mellower, more introspective bent of the new album.

61. Saint Motel – My Type. Pure pop goodness with “one-hit wonder” written all over it, especially since their follow-up single, “Cold Cold Man,” wasn’t one-tenth this catchy.

60. Coeur de Pirate – Carry On. Béatrice Martin’s voice is absolutely intoxicating, a little smoky, a little kittenish, a little mysterious with the hints of her Quebecois accent. This song came from her first album recorded in English and deserved a much better reception than it received.

59. Passion Pit – Until We Can’t (Let’s Go). I feel like this song, my favorite of theirs since “Little Secret,” was overshadowed by Michael Angelakos’ public acknowledgement that he’s gay, which shouldn’t even cause a ripple at this point. Passion Pit are strongest when they write music like they’re about to play a giant warehouse party, and that comes through here like it hasn’t in years.

58. Death Cab for Cutie – Black Sun. Death Cab’s album Kintsugi will be their last with guitarist/producer Chris Walla, and even here it already sounded like his influence on the songwriting had waned, with the record more uneven than Codes and Keys and lacking that record’s epic feel. “Black Sun” has Walla and Ben Gibbard rocking out like they did on “You Are a Tourist,” and this is the kind of song at which I think DCFC excels.

57. Ceremony – Your Life in France. They’re nominally a punk band, but their latest album was more post-punk like Joy Division of Gang of Four, led by this song and “The Separation.”

56. Wilco – You Satellite. I’m not a huge fan of Wilco’s overall output so I didn’t react to their release of the surprise album Star Wars with quite the enthusiasm as their longtime fans showed, but there were a number of standout tracks here … just not “Random Name Generator,” the song everyone else seemed to love.

55. Iron Maiden – Speed of Light. I’m not remotely sorry for including this, so don’t even start. Their album The Book of Souls floored me, as it was their best in more than two decades and one of the best albums of the year, good enough to forgive them the eighteen-minute closing track/endurance test.

54. SEXWITCH – Helelyos. That’s Bat for Lashes, singing folk songs from non-Western cultures in various foreign languages (I think this is Farsi), with the band Toy backing her up on the group’s six-song EP.

53. Wolf Alice – Giant Peach. The first Wolf Alice song I heard, one that really establishes the group’s rock chops, especially Ellie Rowsell’s merits as someone who can sing over a heavy rhythm and distinguish herself with her vocals.

52. Neon Indian – Annie. I’ve heard lots of Neon Indian stuff in the past, but his work on 2015’s VEGA INTL. Night School was brighter and a little more accessible, all to the good on songs like “Slumlord” and this track, which at first I thought was a new song from St. Lucia. (That’s high praise.)

51. Frank Turner – Get Better. Another album that really failed to meet my expectations, since I loved 2013’s Tape Deck Heart, although this lead single could easily have come from the preceding album given its music and lyrical theme.

50. Allison Weiss – Golden Coast. Indie-pop is such a mixed bag and as a result an increasingly worthless (decreasingly worthful?) term. Ingrid Michaelson still gets the tag, but she’s had two top-five albums and a handful of crossover hits. (She’s also cute, which never hurts a female musician and I find often is what people really mean when they say “indie.”) Anyway, Allison Weiss is better than Ingrid Michaelson and this song is one example.

49. Metric – The Shade. I’m pretty serious about lyrics; great lyrics often overcome mediocre music, and if the lyrics are dumb, then the music better be pretty fucking awesome, which the music and melody on “The Shade” are.

48. Hot Chip – Huarache Lights. A meditative track from some of the masters of electronic pop music; they’re not the edgy group that brought us the mocking “Over and Over” any more, but they’ve retrained their sights on more serious subjects like the depersonalization of man in an increasingly technological first-world society.

47. Lower Dens – To Die in L.A.. Dream-something – it’s not poppy, more ambient than anything else, but with a quicker tempo. I get a Robert Plant Principle of Moments vibe out of this for some reason.

46. Sleater-Kinney – Price Tag. The best song from their comeback album was “Bury Our Friends,” which made my top ten in 2014; this was #2 for me on No Cities to Love, followed by “Surface Envy.”

45. Superhumanoids – Anxious in Venice. Encouraging you all to listen to Superhumanoids is becoming an obsession of mine; not only is lead vocalist Sarah Chernoff incredibly talented, with both great range and precision in her voice, but the trio keep churning out smart, immersive tracks that feature slow builds and choruses that provide cathartic releases of all that pent-up energy. This was the lead single from their 2015 album Do You Feel OK?, another of my top albums of the year, and my second-favorite track from the record.

44. Wild Nothing – To Know You. A very promising return from Wild Nothing echoes Talk Talk’s “It’s My Life” in both music (bass line and chord changes in the verse) and lyrics (“Funny how…”). Their new album drops February 19th.

43. Savages – The Answer. These four women are back and they appear to be seriously pissed off. “T.I.W.Y.G.” is also solid, with both tracks on their sophomore album, due out January 22nd.

42. Grimes – Flesh Without Blood. The lead single from Art Angels, my favorite album of 2015, and the most acclaimed track from what I’ve seen so far … and hey, it’s a great song all around, although I think she reached greater heights both in her experimentation with structure and in her pursuit of her own brand of pop perfection. She does use her vocal range to great effect here.

41. Tame Impala – Let It Happen. Everyone but me loved this album; it’s too monotonous for me, so that a song like “Cause I’m a Man,” which is so smart and well-crafted, blends right into the rest of the album’s many soporific rhythms. “Let It Happen” is the longest song on my top 100, but Kevin Parker makes good use of the nearly eight minutes of the track – and lets his psych-rock inclinations come through a bit more.

40. Chemical Brothers – Go. I’m not gonna lie to you – you put Q-Tip on a track, I’m going to put it on my top 100. It’s pretty much automatic. Bring on The Last Zulu!

39. Kid Astray – Diver. I had this just a bit ahead of “Cornerstone” among singles from this Norwegian group’s first full-length album, Home Before the Dark; neither is as good as their first minor hit, “The Mess,” but these guys (and gal) have a great sense of melody and an overall sound like Naked & Famous.

38. Deerhunter – Snakeskin. Their 2015 album Faded Frontier is a bit of beautiful chaos, although some of the experimentation doesn’t quite work; this lead single’s syncopated rhythm (with a chord change that reminds me of Fiona Apple’s “Criminal,” of all things) gives you an uncomfortable sense of being off-balance through the entire song’s groove.

37. Kenneths – Cool As You. A London punk trio who revel in the melodic hardcore sound first popularized by groups like the Descendents.

36. Waxahatchee – Under a Rock. There’s a little-but-fierce quality to Katie Crutchfield’s voice here, set against a jangly guitar riff that wouldn’t be out of place in an alt.country playlist, one that works better on this rock track than on the more lugubrious songs that flesh out her newest album, Ivy Tripp.

35. Modest Mouse – Lampshades on Fire. They’re at their best when they’re a little crazy, which they are here and on “The Ground Walks, with Time in a Box,” songs that are more “Dashboard” than “Float On” even though Johnny Marr has moved on.

34. The Wombats – Greek Tragedy. Probably the best-known song from Glitterburg, a joyous pop trip from start to finish that’s fueled by Matthew Murphy’s utterly bonkers lyrics with their strongest melodies yet. How many artists could work in a reference to falling up a set of Penrose steps without sounding ridiculous?

33. Dagny – Backbeat. This debut single from a Norwegian solo artist (real name Dagny Sandvik) gets a big boost from my daughter, who latched on to this song on first listen and has made it one of her most-played tracks of the year.

32. The Dead Weather – I Feel Love. With Jack White’s solo output rather disappointing, I’m glad we at least have the Dead Weather to give us some of that unapologetic ’70s heavy-blues sound that influenced so much of the White Stripes’ best work.

31. St. Lucia – Dancing on Glass. The first single from his upcoming sophomore LP was very promising; the second single, “Physical,” was far less so. St. Lucia’s debut album was one of my favorites of 2013 but attracted almost no attention; I’m hopeful he won’t change his sound as a reaction to the lack of sales.

30. CHVRCHES – Never Ending Circles. Of the hits on their second album, this was the one that I think would have fit best on their debut album – which is very much a compliment, since The Bones of What You Believe was so strong, but I was also happy to see some evolution in the trio’s sound on Every Open Eye.

29. Jamie xx – See Saw. I’ve never been wild about The xx, but their keyboardist/producer outed himself as some kind of genius with his debut album In Colour, full of these atmospheric, dense electronic tracks, here highlighted by vocals from his xx bandmate Romy.

28. Prince – Stare. I think he’s now put out four albums in the last fifteen months, although much of his output these days amounts to quantity over quality. I’ve been a huge fan of Prince since 1982 or so, but his material tailed off badly from 1994 on, starting with Come, the last record he released as Prince before the whole name-change folly. The funky, horn-driven “Stare” is stripped-down compared to the glam-funk style he pioneered in his heyday, but it’s his strongest track in over two decades.

27. The Libertines – Gunga Din. On the one hand, I’m glad the Libertines are back together, not least because it means Pete Doherty hasn’t died of a drug overdose yet. On the other hand, the likely lads seem to have grown up a little too much – the joyous excess of their first two albums is muted by maturity and perspective here. “Gunga Din” is the main exception, a song about, what else, drinking too much (and perhaps regretting it).

26. Gardens & Villa – Fixations. I feel like they should have named their album Music for Degs instead of Music for Dogs, but maybe that’s just me. If I hadn’t known who sang “Fixations” when I first heard it, I would have assumed it was a Shins song – and I mean that in a good way, with a really memorable hook and very specific, immersive, piano-and-keyboard sound.

25. HAERTS – Animal. I assume this track, released as part of a two-song single or EP or whatever the hell we call it these days when it’s all digital anyway, presages a 2016 album release. HAERTS goes a different route here than on their previous songs, with a very long, slow build that doesn’t bring lead singer Nini Fabi into the track until just past the two-minute mark. It’s highly effective primarily because Fabi’s voice is so strong that she can appear on less than half of the song’s length and still own it.

24. Mimicking Birds – Dead Weight. I admit that the opening lyric “I am a corpse/you are a corpse/we’re just corpses floating without a course” could be a bit of a turnoff, but give the song a chance – it’s dark folk, a sound I might expect to be on the soundtrack of a film set hundreds of years ago, with Nate Lacy’s always thought-provoking lyrics.

23. Purity Ring – push pull. Megan James’ lyrics are outstanding and her voice can be a real strength, but too much of their sophomore album Another Eternity puts her vocals through effects that distort it and emphasize some of the higher registers, to the songs’ detriment. She’s singing with little interference here, and the tenuous relationship between her vocal melody and the music gives the song a beneficial tension that never really lets up.

22. White Reaper – I Don’t Think She Cares. This Louisville quartet melds punk, hard rock, and some late-60s psycheledic elements on their amusingly-titled debut album White Reaper Does It Again, with this song and “Pills” the two standout tracks.

21. Django Django – Shake and Tremble. Born Under Saturn couldn’t quite live up to their Mercury Prize-nominated self-titled 2012 album, but if you wanted more of the same vibe from this genre-fusing British band, you certainly got it here – it wasn’t as innovative but it was still a lot of fun.

20. Atlas Genius – Molecules. Australia is producing so much great pop/rock right now I can barely keep up with it. Atlas Genius broke through with “If So” off their first album but had several more great singles off their followup Inanimate Objects, including this and “Stockholm.”

19. Potty Mouth – Cherry Picking. I thought this song, which draws directly on early-90s alternative groups from Belly to Lush, would be a huge hit, but perhaps it’s a little time out of joint. It’s punk-inflected pop with a definite riot-grrl sneer to the vocals.

18. Waters – Up Up Up. Lead singer/songwriter Van Pierszalowski is both a huge Dodgers fan and a coffee snob, so I’m predisposed to like the band’s music anyway, but this is a great, sunny, southern California kind of pop/rock song.

17. Houndmouth – Sedona. It got overplayed once pop-radio discovered it six months after its release, but hey, I told you about the song back in April. I don’t know how this quartet can ever avoid comparisons to the Mamas and the Papas, although that’s pretty good company for any band.

16. Wolf Alice – You’re a Germ. I loved this whole album, but no single song encapsulated its greatness as much as “You’re a Germ,” where Ellie Rowsell goes from sultry to scream and absolutely owns the shit out of the entire track; my favorite vocal on the entire album is in the chorus here, a line I’m not even 100% sure I understand but definitely involves sending someone to hell.

15. Foals – Mountain at My Gates. Foals seem to be a lock for one great song per album; last time around it was “Inhaler,” and this time it’s “Mountain at My Gates,” even though the “I see it more and more each day” line is such a throwaway that it detracts from the imagery Yannis creates across the rest of the lyrics.

14. Grimes – Venus Fly. Janelle Monae takes control of most of the lyrics here, but the two girls combine for a feminist rant that keeps defying lyrical and musical expectations. When both women say “Why you looking at me” don’t you expect to hear something like “…boy?” afterwards? In an industry still too driven by men who evaluate female musicians by looks, this song inserts itself into the conversation with a declaration of independence for two musicians who just happen to be attractive but matter because they’re so talented.

13. Freddie Gibbs – Extradite. The best new rap song I’ve heard in years, powered by Gibbs’ very old-school, precise delivery and a tremendous guest appearance by Black Thought, over a track that sounds like vintage Eric B. and Rakim.

12. San Cisco – Too Much Time Together. This Australian group focuses on bright, witty material that fits in with the Wombats for the combination of upbeat music and ironic lyrics, often making use of dual vocals thanks to multi-talented drummer Scarlett Stevens.

11. Belle & Sebastian – Nobody’s Empire. The music alone would have put this song in my top 50, but “Nobody’s Empire” has some of my favorite lyrics of the year, as Stuart Murdoch – who always manages to tell a good story – has created something of an epic here, with more quotable, imagery-drenched lines than most groups fit in a whole album. The last verse just kills me.

10. Superhumanoids – Norwegian Black Metal. This song title is just pandering to me, even though there’s no hint of metal anywhere in the track, let alone metal of the Norwegian black variety; it is the best showcase for Sarah Chernoff’s voice on the album, and I can vouch for her talent, having seen them play live in September.

9. The Wombats – This is Not a Party. I don’t know why their label didn’t push this out as a single, as it’s incredibly catchy and has some of the funnier lyrics on the record; “Edward’s on the big white telephone to God” just creates this image in my head of a stoned preppie talking on an oversized telephone to … well, I’ll let you decide that for yourselves.

8. Chairlift – Ch-Ching. Their new album should be out in January, but if this is a taste of what we’re getting it should be a contender for the best album of 2016, with Caroline Polachek’s vocal gymnastics leading the way. I know there’s speculation over what the combination “27-99-23” means, but I keep imagining it as some kind of NFL play call.

7. Cloves – Frail Love. Cloves is just 19, from Melbourne, Australia, with a very distinctive (if odd) way of pronouncing certain words, and I hear a young Fiona Apple all over again, especially when she drops to the lower end of her vocal range. It’s a song to rip your heart right out of your chest.

6. Pure Bathing Culture – Pray for Rain. This song came out of nowhere for me – I knew PBC but can’t say I ever connected with any of their songs as I did with this slice of smart synth-pop that

5. Grimes – California. It’s a sunny pop song masking a harsh vocal indictment of the music industry’s treatment of independent artists: “When you get bored of me, I’ll be back on the shelf.” The metonymical use of California as a stand-in for the industry is one of many poetical flourishes on Art Angels, my top album of 2015.

4. Jamie xx – Loud Places. Jamie xx’s debut solo album was a revelation, as he seemed to grasp the mantle from pioneers like the Chemical Brothers even as the latter put out their first new album in five years. This song is Jamie xx and electronica at their best, using samples to create multiple layers of sound, shifting tempos, setting Romy’s soft, breathy vocals in counterpoint to the rising wave of music he’s building beneath her. By the time the song reaches its devastating close, you feel like a hundred musicians have appeared on the song.

3. CHVRCHES – Leave a Trace. Every Open Eye was more of the same from CHVRCHES, but better, and no song exemplified that so much as “Leave a Trace,” the lead single from the album. The track keeps Lauren Mayberry out in front where she belongs, with a powerful crescendo leading up to each chorus, and it benefits greatly from the album’s higher production quality.

2. Courtney Barnett – Pedestrian at Best. Barnett is the best lyricist in music right now, telling Dylanesque stories with irony, wit, and empathy for the characters she creates, even when the character is herself. “Give me all your money/and I’ll make some origami, honey” is the greatest fake come-on of the year, and I think the biting nature of her humor works much better when the songs are uptempo.

1. Beck – Dreams. Yeah, he’s a member of a dangerous cult, but Beck is certainly a genius, and a shapeshifter too, as comfortable making mournful folk albums as he is here, making a song replete with funk elements that has been a mainstay on my playlists for the six months since its release. “Dreams” seems too complex to be pop but, because it’s Beck, is so infused with hooks and melodies that it seems silly to call it anything else. I wasn’t on the Morning Phase praise train, but when Beck gets back to his roots, crafting innovative songs that shove up against the boundaries of pop music without ever truly leaving it, I’m all in.

Top 15 albums of 2015.

My ranking of the top fifteen albums of the year is below, and reflects my own personal preferences, with a balance between albums that have a few standout songs and ones that worked better as cohesive units. You can see last year’s top 14 albums list for a comparison. I heard a lot more than I ranked here, but getting to fifteen albums I truly liked and would recommend wasn’t even easy.

Linked album titles go to full reviews. My ranking of the top 100 songs of the year will follow in a few days.

15. Drenge – Undertow. The British duo’s follow-up to one of my favorite albums of 2013 was a bit of a disappointment, because I loved their raw guitar-and-drum sound and wasn’t thrilled with the expansion into bass lines and reverb effects, but the album was a step forward in sound and songcraft – it’s just not more of the same when I actually wanted more of the same.

14. Horrendous – Anareta. (amazoniTunes) I only found a few extreme-metal releases in 2015 that I liked at all, including Tribulation’s The Children of the Night (Swedish black metal with some classical elements), Krisiun’s Forged in Fury (very dark Brazilian death metal with strong technical riffing), and even Children of Bodom’s I Worship Chaos (highly melodic death metal but the lyrics leave a lot to be desired). Nothing could touch Horrendous’ sophomore album, the followup to 2014’s Ecdysis, itself one of the best metal albums of that year. Horrendous is marketed as death metal, but it’s really highly technical progressive metal with death growls. You get relatively few blast beats, and the heavier turns are more akin to classic thrash than the more extreme corners of death metal. If you remember peak Death (the Chuck Schuldiner band that helped establish the subgenre), Horrendous has picked up where that group left off.

13. Twerps – Range Anxiety. Weird, jangly, lo-fi indie pop from Australia that veers from hooky to annoying and back again.

12. Of Monsters and Men – Beneath the Skin. Much-maligned, as it lacked the big hooks and choruses of their debut, My Head is an Animal, but I found the record more mature in lyrics and music, and appreciated the greater production emphasis on Nanna’s vocals.

11. Jamie xx – In Colour. (amazoniTunes) Who knew that the real talent in the Mercury Prize-winning trio The xx was producer/keyboard player Jamie xx, whose brilliance came out in this ebullient collection of electronic and dance songs, highlighted by the two singles that feature his sometime bandmate Romy, “See Saw” and “Loud Places.” In a sea of monotony in electronic music, Jamie xx managed to stand out.

10. Belle & Sebastian – Girls in Peacetime Want to Dance. The Scottish group’s best record in years may have been uneven, but featured three standout tracks to start the album and Stuart Murdoch’s now-expected lyrical brilliance throughout.

9. Iron Maiden – Book of Souls. Go figure: the lads had one more masterpiece in ’em. I could have done without the eighteen-minute closer or the mortifying “tribute” to Robin Williams, but on an album of this length there are plenty of highlights, enhanced by the stylistic shifts by the multitude of songwriters who contributed.

8. Freddie Gibbs – Shadow of a Doubt. (amazoniTunes) This is the first true hip-hop record I’ve included on my year-end lists, with Gibbs’ delivery and old-school writing separating him from the hordes of rappers who can’t hold a candle to the kings of the Golden Age. Two highlights: “Extradite,” featuring Black Thought of the Roots; and “Fuckin’ Up the Count,” which samples from and is based on a famous scene from The Wire. But as with most contemporary rap albums, Shadow of a Doubt has some cringeworthy lyrics, especially Gibbs’ free use of the female-dog epithet.

7. Sleater-Kinney – No Cities to Love. Nine years away and the ladies of Sleater-Kinney came back better than ever, with tighter songs and stronger hooks than any of their previous album showcased.

6. Wolf Alice – Our Love is Cool. (amazoniTunes) One of the few pleasant surprises in the Granny Award nominations was seeing Wolf Alice get a nod for Best Rock Performance for “Moaning Lisa Smile,” although that might be the fifth-best track on their debut album. Ellie Rowsell has one of the sexiest vocal deliveries of the year, particularly when her fierce side comes out on tracks like “You’re a Germ,” while the band seems to channel everything from mid-90s Britpop to late-70s British steel.

5. Superhumanoids – Do You Feel OK?. I really feel fine, thanks, especially after listening to this indie-pop trio, led by singer Sarah Chernoff’s soaring vocals and backed by one strong melody after another.

4. CHVRCHES – Every Open Eye. CHVRCHES’ second top-five album on my lists – and second top-12 album on the Billboard charts – in the last three years was more of the same but better, like a hybrid of their first record and the Purple Rain-era Prince records the band members so revere.

3. The Wombats – Glitterbug. ($5 on amazoniTunes) I never reviewed this album but included one track from it on each of four straight monthly playlists. Lead singer/guitarist Matthew Murphy is a clever, witty wordsmith who also has a great knack at crafting hooks that sound like ’80s new wave but are still novel. I could easily have put a half-dozen songs from Glitterbug on my top 100, including tracks that I omitted like “Emoticons,” “Give Me a Try,” and the not actually baseball-related “Curveballs.”

2. Courtney Barnett – Sometimes I Sit and Think, and Sometimes I Just Sit. By far the best lyrics of any album I heard this year, as Barnett expanded her range with more rock-heavy tracks and fewer of the folky ballads that dominated her A Sea of Split Peas double EP release. She’s a modern Bob Dylan for her way of telling a story within a four-minute song, setting scenes and working in dialogue without even abandoning her meter or rhyme scheme, and there are so many wry couplets on this album that she might have missed her calling as an existentialist comic.

1. Grimes – Art Angels. Grimes’ fourth record was a quantum leap forward from 2012’s Visions in every way, and was 2015’s best album for its combination of genre-bending sounds, strong melodies, and improved lyrics. Claire Boucher, who records under the nom de mic Grimes, is a chameleon, shedding her skin from one track to the next, changing textures and styles yet still producing a cohesive collection of songs that never lets up and delivers one strong hook after another.