Locking Up Our Own.

James Forman, Jr., was a public defender in DC for six years, right after he clerked for Sandra Day O’Connor, and encountered the results of two decades of disastrous policies in the criminal justice system of the nation’s capital, many of which led to differential policing and mass incarceration of the city’s black residents. He discussed the history and causes of this system in his 2017 book Locking Up Our Own: Crime and Punishment in Black America, which lays much of the blame for the high incarceration rates on policies embraced and advocated by black community leaders themselves. The book won the 2018 Pulitzer Prize for Non-Fiction this past April.

Forman’s parents met while working for the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee (known colloquially as “snick”) during the civil rights movement, which he says spurred his decision to move off the career track into the public defender’s office, eventually moving from there into teaching at Georgetown’s and now Yale’s law schools. Where the 2016 documentary The 13th laid all of the blame for the high rates of black incarceration in the United States on two-plus centuries of racism and white domination – a view that is largely justified – Forman’s book lays bare the role that leaders in black communities played in supporting those policies. Foremost among them: Fighting early progressive efforts to decriminalize possession and personal use of small amounts of marijuana.

Washington DC didn’t achieve some semblance of home rule until 1973, and Congress still holds the power to overturn some laws passed by the DC council and could even, in theory, dismiss the city’s council at will. This gives the city’s residents a status not too much greater than those of territories like Puerto Rico or the U.S. Virgin Islands, although I suppose if two hurricanes knocked out power to DC for several months the federal government would be a little quicker to address the problem. DC’s population is nearly half African-American, and the high rates of incarceration and different policing strategies in its neighborhoods with higher black populations have had a severe effect on the city’s economy, including continuing high crime rates. Forman explains how DC got into this mess, going back to the end of the civil rights movement and explaining how it was actually a white progressive council member who tried to decriminalize marijuana possession, but found himself opposed by black church leaders, Nation of Islam leaders, and even some black city council members, all of whom ended up working together to scotch the proposal (which may not have passed muster with Congress anyway). When a similar proposal arose a few years later to create mandatory minimum sentencing to fight rising crime rates in DC – themselves at least in part the result of the crack cocaine epidemic – black community leaders were all for the new law, responding to residents’ concerns about violent street crime and home invasions, but also enforcing a longstanding moral viewpoint that African-Americans could defeat stereotypes about them by, in essence, behaving better. If DC cracked down on even trivial crimes, even misdemeanors, the theory went, it would improve the quality of life for all DC residents while also working against white politicians and community leaders who worked to disenfranchise and/or limit the economic mobility of people of color.

None of this worked, as Forman writes, and instead helped fuel a new DC underclass – as it did in other cities, including Detroit, the US city with the highest proportion of residents who are African-American – of blacks, mostly men, who were now de facto unemployable because they had criminal records. Such ex-convicts also could find themselves ineligible for certain government assistance programs, turned down for housing, and even unable to vote. Forman, as a public defender, worked with many such clients, but, in his own telling, he was struggling upstream against a system that simultaneously limited the advancement of African-Americans in its police force and judiciary and also aggressively pursued policies that further hindered the black community. He touches on greater arrest rates in black wards of DC versus white, the long-term harm of “stop and frisk” policies (formally known as a Terry stop, and of dubious constitutionality, especially when opponents can show disparate impact by race of police targets), and the formal and informal obstacles that efforts at community improvement can face from municipal police forces – even when officers and administrators are themselves African-American.

Locking Up Our Own is a sobering look at how we got here, but perhaps short on prescriptions for undoing forty years of damage. Marijuana decriminalization is finally happening, although it’s driven by white stoners and libertarians rather than black citizens and provides no procedure for vacating past convictions for trivial possession cases. Stop and frisk was ruled unconstitutional in NYC in 2013, but our current President and Attorney General have both explicitly endorsed the practice. Mandatory minimums remain popular, in large part because they serve “tough on crime” candidates well – and who would dare to stand up and say that criminals deserve shorter sentences? A path to greater African-American enfranchisement and sovereignty in majority black neighborhoods would likely be impossible in any system where higher level, white-dominated government bodies can invalidate city or state policies. Any change that starts at the bottom will fail without a change at the top.

Next up: Claude M. Steele’s Whistling Vivaldi: How Stereotypes Affect Us and What We Can Do.

The Insult.

The Insult (iTunesamazon) was the one modest surprise among the five nominees for Best Foreign Language Film at the Oscars this past year, edging out Golden Globes winner In the Fade and the highly-regarded Israeli film Foxtrot. The first Lebanese submission to earn such a nomination and just the fourteenth film ever submitted for consideration from Lebanon, The Insult is a multi-layered drama that uses a minor disagreement to build a courtroom drama, a fable about racism, and a demonstration of how tiny gestures in either direction can have enormous consequences.

Toni Hanna is a Lebanese Christian man who works at a garage and lives in an apartment he hopes to buy, along with his very pregnant (and ridiculously beautiful) wife Shirine. He’s hosing off his balcony on one day when the excess water runs out his drain pipe, which apparently is a code violation, on to a few construction workers led by the foreman Yasser, a Palestinian man who has lived in Lebanon for years and married a Lebanese woman. When Yasser and his crew fix the pipe without Toni’s permission, he destroys their work, leading Yasser to call him a “fucking prick.” Toni demands an apology, but when Yasser balks, Toni takes him to court in a lawsuit that begins as something trivial and ends up a national news story, spiraling well beyond the control of either man. The trial exposes the origins of Toni’s racism and the ‘forgotten’ history of sectarian violence in Lebanon, including one incident where the PLO and PFLP (both major Palestinian terrorist organizations) played a significant part.

The superficial story in The Insult plays out a bit like a smarter Law & Order episode. The two trials – the first in a small court, the second an appeal argued by experienced lawyers working pro bono – feel overly dramatic, although it’s possible the Lebanese justice system works something like this, with judges asking witnesses and even members of the courtroom audience questions. There’s a big twist right before the midpoint of the film that amps up the drama quotient of the trial, although in the end it doesn’t matter much to the main plot around the dispute between the two men.

The plot thread around race is, I think, the Big Point of The Insult, and you could carry the framework very well to a similar story in just about any multi-ethnic state. Palestinians are an underclass in many nations in the Levant, and there appears to be widespread resentment against them and their somewhat protected status in Lebanon, so when Toni appears to be fighting back on behalf of Lebanese Christians, he garners public support and finds a well-known lawyer willing to take on his case to make a point. Yasser ends up with a young lawyer who says she wants to take his case because no one stands up for Palestinians’ rights, and she’s derided as a sort of limousine liberal by her opponents while also gaining popular backing from Lebanese Muslims and several politicians pushing for national unity.

The film goes too far in justifying Toni’s feelings towards Palestinians, however, when it delves into the history of his family and the incident from his childhood, the Damour massacre, that spawned his lifelong animosity towards them and support for nationalist-Christian politicians. The scene where that story is unfurled is also quite over the top, again feeling very TV-dramatized, and almost crushes the better plot thread of a quiet shift towards reconciliation between the two men. There’s one moment of sincere kinship that arises by accident, and then Yasser finds a way to deliver to Toni what he thinks Toni really wants from him, enough that the outcome of the trial – which we do see, even though I thought the script might end right before the verdict was delivered – feels a bit secondary. There’s an actual moral here, reminiscent of “A Thousand Trees” by Stereophonics, about how a tiny gesture either way can start a conflagration or defuse a potential riot: At any point, an apology from Yasser or a statement of forgiveness from Toni would have ended the entire conflict. The two men could have simply shaken hands in front of the cameras and brought the two sides together. The Insult doesn’t quite cop out to that extent, even though the legal stuff feels manipulative (even with a superb secondary performance from the wonderfully-named Diamond Bou Abboud as Yasser’s attorney). The story ends up taking a middle path, wrapping up the story in a satisfying enough fashion that still felt like it could have been stronger without the more crowd-pleasing aspects of the story to drown out the humanist plot at the movie’s heart.

Why We Sleep.

Why do we sleep? If sleep doesn’t serve some essential function, then it is evolution’s biggest mistake, according to one evolutionary scientist quoted in Matthew Walker’s book Why We Sleep: Unlocking the Power of Sleep and Dreams, which explains what sleep seems to do for us, what sleep deprivation does to us, and why we should all be getting more sleep and encouraging our kids and our employees to do the same.

Walker, a sleep researcher and Professor of Neuroscience and Psychology at Cal-Berkeley, begins by delving into what we know about the history of sleep in humans, and how sleep itself is structured. Humans were, for most of our history as a species, biphasic sleepers – we slept twice in each 24 hour period. We retain vestiges of this practice, which only ended in the 19th century in the developed world with the Industrial Revolution, in our Circadian rhythms, which still give us that post-prandial ‘slump’ that led to customs like the siesta. (It had never occurred to me that the word “circadian” itself came from the Latin words for “almost a day,” because that rhythm in our bodies isn’t quite 24 hours long.)

Sleep is, itself, two different processes that occur sequentially, alternating through a night of full sleep. Most people are familiar with REM sleep, referring to the rapid eye movements visible to an observer standing not at all creepily over you while you slumber. The remaining periods of sleep are, creatively, called nREM or non-REM sleep, and themselves comprise three different sub stages. Both phases of sleep are important; REM sleep is when dreaming occurs, which itself seems to serve the purposes of helping the brain process various events and the associated emotions from the previous day(s), as well as allowing the brain to form connections between seemingly unrelated memories or facts that can seem like bursts of creativity the next day. Your body becomes mostly paralyzed during REM sleep, or else you’d start moving around while you dream, perhaps kicking, flailing, or even acting out events in your dreams – which can happen in people with certain rare sleep disorders. N-REM sleep allows the body to repair itself, helps cement new information into memories in the brain’s storage, boosts the immune system, and contributes to feelings of wakefulness in the next day. The part of N-REM sleep that accomplishes the most, called deep or N3 sleep, decreases as you age, which is why older people may find it hard to sleep longer during the night and then feel less refreshed the next morning.

The bulk of Why We Sleep, however, is a giant warning call to the world about the hazards of short- and long-term sleep deprivation, which Walker never clearly defines but seems to think of as sleeping for a period of less than six hours. (He calls bullshit on people, like our current President and I believe his predecessor too, who claim they can function well on just four or five hours of sleep a night.) Sleep deprivation affects cognition and memory, and long-term deprivation contributes to cancer, diabetes, mental illnesses, Alzheimer’s, and more. Rats deprived of sleep for several days eventually die of infections from bacteria that would normally live harmlessly in the rats’ intestinal tracts.

We don’t sleep enough any more as a society, and there are real costs to this. Drowsy driving kills more people annually than drunk driving, and if you think you’ve never done this, you’re probably wrong: People suffering from insufficient sleep can fall into “micro-sleeps” that are enough to cause a fatal accident if one occurs while you’re at the wheel. Sleep deprivation in adolescents seems to lead to increased risks of various mental illnesses that tend to first manifest at that age, while also contributing to behavioral problems and reducing the brain’s ability to retain new information. Walker even ends the book with arguments that corporations should encourage better sleep hygiene as a productivity tool and a way to reduce health care costs, and that high schools should move their school days back to accommodate the naturally later sleep cycles of teenagers, whose circadian rhythms operate somewhat later than those of preteens or adults.

One major culprit in our national sleep deficit — which, by the way, isn’t one you can pay; you can’t ‘catch up’ on lost sleep — is artificial light, especially blue light, which is especially prevalent in LED light sources like the one in this iPad on which I’m typing and the phone on which you’re probably reading this post. Blue light sources are everywhere, including the LED bulbs the environmentally responsible among us are now using in our house to replace inefficient incandescent bulbs or mercury-laden CFLs. Blue light confuses the body’s natural melatonin cycle, which is distinct from the circadian rhythm, and delays the normal release of melatonin in the evenings, which thus further delays the onset of sleep.

Sleep confers enormous benefits on those who choose to get enough of it, benefits that, if more people knew and understand them, should encourage better sleep hygiene in people who at least have the discretion to sleep more. Sleep helps cement new information in your memory; if you learn new information, such as vocabulary in a foreign language, and then nap afterwards, you’re significantly more likely to retain what you learned afterwards. Sleep also provides the body with time to repair some types of cell damage and to recover from muscle fatigue – so, yes, ballplayers getting more sleep might be less prone to injuries related to fatigue, although sleep can’t repair a frayed labrum or tearing UCL.

Walker says he gives himself a non-negotiable eight-hour sleep window every night. I am not sure how he can reconcile that with, say, his trans-Atlantic travel, but he does point out that changing time zones can wreak havoc on our sleep cycles. He suggests avoiding alcohol or caffeine within eight hours of bedtime — so, yes, he even says if you want that pint of beer, have it with breakfast — and offers numerous suggestions for preparing the body for sleep as you approach bedtime, including turning off LED light sources, using blue light filters on devices if you just can’t put them down, and even using blackout shades for total darkness into the morning.

There are some chapters in the middle of Why We Sleep that would stand well on their own, even if they’re not necessarily as relevant to most readers as the rest of it. The chapter on sleep disorders, including narcolepsy and fatal familial insomnia (about as awful a way to die as I could imagine), is fascinating in its own right. Walker also delivers a damning rant on sleeping pills, which produce unconsciousness but not actual sleep, not in a way that will help the body perform the essential functions of sleep. He does say melatonin may help some people, although I think he believes its placebo effect is more reliable, and he questions whether over the counter melatonin supplements deliver as much of the hormone as they claim they do.

Why We Sleep was both illuminating and life-altering in the most literal sense: Since reading it, I’ve set Night Shift modes on my devices, set alarms to remind me to get to bed eight hours before the morning alarm, stopped trying to make myself warmer at night (cold prepares the body for sleep, and you sleep best in temperatures around 57 degrees), and so on. I had already been in the habit of pulling over to nap if I became drowsy on a long drive, but now I build more time into drives to accommodate that, and to give myself more time to wake up afterwards – Walker suggests 20 minutes are required for full cognitive function after even a brief nap. Hearing the health benefits of sleeping more and risks of insufficient sleep, including higher rates of heart disease, cancer, and Alzheimer’s, was more than enough to scare me straight.

Next up: I’m halfway through Brian Clegg’s A Brief History of Infinity: The Quest to Think the Unthinkable.

Stick to baseball, 5/12/18.

This week brought the return of the redraft columns, where I go back ten years and ‘redraft’ the first round with full hindsight. This year’s edition redrafted the first round of 2008, led by Buster Posey and with several guys taken after the tenth round (one in the 42nd!) making the final 30; as well as an accompanying look at the 20 first-rounders who didn’t pan out. Both are Insider pieces, as is my column of scouting notes on Yankees, Phillies, Nats, and Royals prospects.

My review of the new Civilization board game is up at Paste this week. Civilization: A New Dawn takes the theme of the legendary Sid Meier video game franchise and simplifies it to play in about an hour to an hour and a half, but I felt like some of the better world-building aspects were lost in the streamlining.

Smart Baseball is now out in paperback! I’ll be at DC’s famed bookstore Politics & Prose on July 14th to flaunt the fruits of noble birth and, perhaps, sign copies of the book. I’m also working on a signing in greater Boston for later that month, so stay tuned for details. Also, please consider signing up for my free email newsletter.

I also wanted to mention a few new baseball books by folks I know that have come out in the last six weeks: Russell Carleton’s The Shift: The Next Evolution in Baseball Thinking, which I think goes well with my own book without covering much of the same ground; and two books on the Dodgers, Michael Schiavone’s The Dodgers: 60 Years in Los Angeles and Jon Weisman’s Brothers in Arms: Koufax, Kershaw, and the Dodgers’ Extraordinary Pitching Tradition, even though Jon liked the movie Moneyball and therefore was wrong about it.

And now, the links…

Not Dead Yet.

I came of age as a music fan right around 1980, thanks in part to some of those old K-Tel pop hits collections (on vinyl!) that my parents bought me as gifts, one of which included Genesis’ hit “Abacab.” I loved the song right away, despite having no idea what it was about (still don’t), and it made me a quick fan of Genesis, and, by extension, Phil Collins’ solo material, which at that point already included “In the Air Tonight.” I’d say I continued as a fan of both until the early 1990s, when Genesis released their self-immolating We Can’t Dance (an atrocious, boring pop record) and Collins’ own solo work became similarly formulaic and dull. It was only well after the fact that I heard any of the first phase of Genesis, where Peter Gabriel was still in the band and their music was progressive art rock that featured adventurous writing and technical proficiency.

Collins’ memoir, Not Dead Yet, details the history of the band through his eyes as well as a look at his solo career and his tangled personal life, some of which made tabloid headlines, leading up to his inadvertent effort at drinking himself to death just a few years ago. The book seems open about many aspects of Collins’ life, including mistreatment of his three wives and his children (mostly by choosing work over his familial duties) and his refusal to accept that he had a substance-abuse problem, but there’s also a strain of self-justification for much of his behavior that I found offputting.

From a narrative sense, the book’s high point is too close to the beginning: When Collins was just starting out in the English music scene, his path intersected with numerous musicians who’d later become superstars and some of whom would be his friends and/or writing partners later in life, including Eric Clapton, Robert Plant, and George Harrison. The Sing Street-ish feel to those chapters is so charming I wondered how much was really accurate, but Collins does at least depict himself as a star struck kid encountering some of his heroes while he’s still learning his craft as a drummer. I also didn’t know Collins was a child actor, even taking a few significant stage roles in London, before his voice broke and he switched to music as a full-time vocation.

The Genesis chapters feel a little Behind the Music, but they’re fairly cordial overall – Collins doesn’t dish on his ex-mates and if anything seems at pains to depict Gabriel as a good bandmate and friend whose vision happened to grow beyond what the band was willing or able to achieve. It’s the stuff on Collins’ personal life that really starts to grate: He talks about being a terrible husband and father, but there’s enough equivocation in his writing (often quite erudite, even though he didn’t finish high school) to suggest that he isn’t taking full responsibility for his actions. He cheated on two wives, he ignored their wishes that he devote more time to his family, and he seems to have harassed the woman half his age (he was 44, she 22) who became his third wife and mother of the last two of his five kids.

It’s also hard to reconcile Collins’ comments on his own songwriting, both on solo records and in later word for Disney films and Broadway shows, with the inferior quality of most of his lyrics. Collins’ strengths were his voice, his sense of melody, and of course his work on the drums. His lyrics often left a lot to be desired, and their quality, never high, merely declined as he became more popular. Even his last #1 song in the U.S., “Another Day in Paradise,” is a mawkish take on the same subject covered more sensitively in “The Way It Is” and a dozen other songs on visible poverty in a developed, wealthy economy.

Since that’s all I have to say on the book, I’ll tell one random Collins-related story. When I was in high school, MTV briefly had an afternoon show called the Heavy Metal Half-Hour, which they later retitled the Hard 30. It was hair metal, so not really very heavy by an objective standard, but harder rock than what they played the rest of the time. One day during the Hard 30 run, they played … Phil Collins’ cover of “You Can’t Hurry Love.” I’m convinced this wasn’t an accident, but a test to see if anyone was watching. The show was cancelled a few weeks later.

Next up: I’m about halfway through Peter Carey’s Booker Prize-winning novel Oscar and Lucinda, later turned into a movie with a very young Voldemort and Queen Elizabeth.

Klawchat 5/10/18.

So much new content today – for Insiders, my 2008 redraft column, and a piece with scouting notes on Yankees, Phillies, Nats, and Royals prospects. I also have review of the new Civilization board game up at Paste.

Keith Law: Here’s a chance to chat our way out of our constrictions. It’s Klawchat.

Joe: Keith, any ideas why Buck is starting Joseph over Sisco so often?
Keith Law: I really can’t explain any of the on-field decisions happening over there. Buck has certainly seemed disinclined to use young players the front office brings up.

Dave: Antuna’s K rate is way up in A ball (and stats way down). How concerning is this or SSS?
Keith Law: Yasel Antuna? He’s *18*. He’s younger than several top HS prospects in this year’s draft. I’m eyeballing it but I think he’s the 3rd youngest player in the Sally League, at an age when he should probably be cutting social studies for Senior Day.

Zach: Will Trevor Williams have a long term MLB career and if so, at what role. His stuff seems underwhelming but at the same time, his ERA/FIP going back a year is 3.52/3.86 and a low HR rate in over 30+ starts.
Keith Law: Back end starter thanks to his command.

Bob: I’ve seen reports that Faedo’s velocity is down and his Ks are pedestrian, but his overall performance has been good. Do you have any reports that suggest a lower than anticipated ceiling?
Keith Law: That’s pretty much what I’ve got too.

Andrew: Nice game from Morejon last night. Who has the highest ceiling out of these three? Morejon, Paddack, Quantrill
Keith Law: Morejon, but I think all three are at least mid-rotation starters if healthy (always an if … that’s two TJs and Morejon has had arm issues too).

Andrew: Thoughts on Tirso Ornelas so far this year? More than holding his own as an 18 yr old in the MWL.
Keith Law: One of my favorite swings in the minors. I’m all in.

Lloyd: Just wanted to revisit your on-point assessment of the Brewers’ sticking Corbin Burnes in Colorado Springs. The home/road splits are astonishingly cartoonish thus far. What’s the theoretical bigger picture here – have him face “better” hitters? Would you say based off the road numbers he’s more or less ready?
Keith Law: I’d rather see him in the major league bullpen. I haven’t even looked at his stats this year because I don’t see what I’m supposed to glean from the guy playing games in near zero G.

Phil: why wouldn’t the cardinals go for machado? I feel like they are in need of consolidating talent given their surplus of young outfielders and pitching depth in the minors…great candidate for a 3 for 1 trade no?
Keith Law: I made this argument on Bernie Miklasz’s radio show this morning. The only hesitation I might have is that a good Cards 3-1 or 4-1 offer would include Kelly or Knizner, and with Sisco there I don’t think the Orioles would favor a package headlined by another catcher.

Tom: Are the A’s in on Kelenic at all?
Keith Law: At all, yes. Gorman too. But I think those are less likely than the college guys.

Josh: Pretty much every preseason list had Heliot Ramos over Austin Beck. Has the first month changed either of their perceptions in any way?
Keith Law: No. Not only is it SSS, but they’re playing at the same level, and Beck is 10 months older than Ramos.

Jake: Do you think Walker Buehler is up for good? If (massive if) the whole Dodgers rotation is healthy, is Buehler someone who starts postseason games for them (basically one of their top 4 starters)?
Keith Law: Depends on what they plan for his workload but I doubt he goes back down for more than a reverse cup of coffee. Hard to see a scenario where he isn’t one of the ten best pitchers in the system. Do not see him starting games for them in October – if they make it – if everyone is healthy.

Tom: What would your plan with Buehler be? They obviously need him now with their injuries and place in the standings, but it’s a long year and he has never thrown more than 98 innings in a year.
Keith Law: Just to stay with Ferris here, the (last year’s IP + 30) threshold has been debunked, but there’s obviously some upper bound on what he can handle. I’d probably target a plan that gets him to 130-140 in the regular season, but with statcast data the Dodgers might get an early warning if he’s wearing down at all, and should be prepared to adjust on the fly. If he has to skip a start, or become a long reliever for a few weeks, then that has to be the priority over squeezing a few extra innings out of him.

Some guy @ 3 Rivers Art Festival: Is Kevin Newman and Clay Holmes, plus two other guys enough for the Pirates to pry Machado from the Os? If not, what do you think it will take? Yeah, I know no way NH does this.
Keith Law: It’s not close to enough, and why would the Pirates acquire Machado now in his walk year?

Hi Erix: Someone asked this of Jay Jaffe, and I’m curious to get your thoughts, Keith. Robinson Cano … no-brainer HOF?
Keith Law: Almost certainly a HoF on merit, but “no-brainer” implies that he’ll sail in on the first ballot and I really doubt that.

Albtead34: It looks like the Rangers have the makings of a good young core. What are your thoughts on Mazara and is Profar going to be part of that core?
Keith Law: Mazara was one of my breakout candidates for this year, so obviously I’m a believer and I think he’s a core player for them. I’m cautiously optimistic about Profar – since he began playing regularly he’s not hitting for enough average but he’s putting the ball in play and showing some power, while drawing walks at an adequate clip. I think there’s still a regular in there and I hope he gets regular playing time for the rest of the year.

Reds Fan (Concerned?): Good afternoon, how concerned are you with Senzel’s vertigo issues this year & last? Can medicine get him back to good health so he can enjoy his life and get back to what he does best?
Keith Law: I’m not qualified to answer that at all.

Matty: Ian Kinsler has been pretty terrible at the plate in Anaheim while David Fletcher has been raking in Salt Lake. What’s the likelihood that Fletcher gets his shot sooner than later?
Keith Law: Salt Lake is a tremendous hitter’s park, in a hitter’s division. Fletcher has played all of two games this year outside of one of the PCL bandboxes. He slugged .354 last year.

Moe Mentum: In college, what did you major in? Would you choose the same major if you could do it over again?
Keith Law: Economics & sociology (joint). Would major in applied math if I could do it again.

Grover: Obviously they won’t blow it up, but if the Dodgers are hovering around .500 at the break, would it make sense for them to move some of the pieces that probably aren’t part of the long term plans (Grandal, Puig, Ryu, Hill?)
Keith Law: Yes and I wouldn’t doubt that they would do so. I know they’ve dangled Puig before.

Adam: Do you think an old dog has learned a new trick? Any changes to Markakis swing or just hot at the moment?
Keith Law: Just hot.
Keith Law: “hot.”

Mark: Are Tatis Jr’s strikeouts worrisome?
Keith Law: We’re hitting a theme here. Tatis is 19 in double-A, and has been raking the last few weeks after a slow start. You have to consider a hitter’s age relative to his level. Without that variable, any ‘analysis’ is worthless.

Moe Mentum: Best song by Talking Heads?
Keith Law: “Burning Down the House” remains my favorite. Brilliant then, no less so now. “Psycho Killer” is great, of course, and I’ve always thought “Blind” gets short shrift because it was their final album and they broke up right after its release.

Alex: what is your go to rum to drink neat?
Keith Law: Can’t beat Zacapa.

Mark: When do you think teams start thinking about making significant trades?
Keith Law: After the draft.

James: Better rest of career, Harvey or Meseraco?
Keith Law: I liked the deal both ways – Mets needed a catcher, Mesoraco still has some pop, neither guy is really fully healthy and I’m not sure we could ever expect either to be so. If you told me to take one, it’d be Mesoraco, but I do not agree with folks who think Harvey is toast.

Adam D.: Any new whispers from the #sources on what the Giants may do at #2? Your article this morning got me fired up for what they could potentially do picking this high.
Keith Law: Same names with them. I don’t know if anyone will really know what the teams up top are doing till very close to the draft but I do feel like the top six picks will include five college guys, the names everyone is putting out there – Mize, Bart, Bohm, Madrigal.

Guest: Lourdes Gurriel seems to swing and miss and awful lot. Doesn’t walk much either. Fringe regular?
Keith Law: I saw him a few times last year and didn’t think he was a regular.

Dan: Read your post on Loaisiga today. Top 100 prospect in your next rankings?
Keith Law: I won’t do 100 again until January.

Grover: Thoughts/projections on DJ Peters?
Keith Law: Upside of a 55, but realistically he might struggle enough with contact in the majors to play as a below-average regular most seasons but who has some above-average years.

JG: Are you encouraged by Gonsalves’s start at AAA. Can he be a mid-rotation guy?
Keith Law: Think more back end than that. Lack of a breaking ball really limits him.

Greg: If you had to redo a mock, would you still have Gorman to Atlanta?
Keith Law: Next mock will run on Thursday, then another two weeks after that, then another on draft day.

Justin : How do you deal with close friends or family who are vocal Trump supporters?
Keith Law: I have no family members or close friends who are. I have ended any contact with distant friends who are. Actually, that’s not quite true – I think I have one close friend who is a Trump supporter, but he’s never said so, and he’s pretty clear about wanting to avoid discussing political or social issues with me, knowing where we disagree. I have no problem with that, but you did say “vocal” and he wouldn’t qualify. He’d probably call me a vocal anti-Trumper.

Bob W.: Keith, what is your opinion, if you’ve formulated one, about the desirability of shortening the MLB regular season to, say, 154 games? My kneejerk reaction is that I’m opposed to it, but I’m open to changing my mind about it. Thanks
Keith Law: Oppose, primarily because it forks the history of the game.

DH: If you knew they’d all end up as average fielding 1B, how would you rank the bats of Nolan Gorman, Noah Naylor, Triston Casas?
Keith Law: If you’re asking pure hit tool, Naylor, Casas, Gorman. If you’re talking total offensive upside, Gorman, Naylor, Casas. However, Noah Naylor is not a 1b. He’s an above-average runner with arm strength and is going to play a skill position.

Marissa : Should anything be taken from TJ Zeuch’s promotion to AA or was it expected that he would be promoted around now
Keith Law: Maybe a year later than expected?

Butts: Is Micker Adolfo for real? Can I get excited yet?
Keith Law: Yeah, I would. He may take a step back when he gets to Birmingham and faces AA pitching, but he has always had enormous tools. I think I said in last week’s chat that he could barely play baseball when he was signed. He’s come a long way, baby.

J.P.: Soto’s on his way to Harrisburg. That was fast. Do you see him making it to DC this season at this rate if there’s room?
Keith Law: I don’t think his approach is ready for that or close to it.

TJ: Is Chance Adams kind of cooked?
Keith Law: No, but I would love to see him move to the pen. I think his fastball will tick up and he could be a Jason Frasor type, maybe better.

Ron: Is D German a Major League starter?
Keith Law: I would bet no, maybe 70/30 against, but you have to try him out there, no?

Greg: Any chance of Connor Scott, Seigler or Denaburg ending up in Gainesville next year?
Keith Law: Denaburg has been hurt since I saw him (I think he was hurt that day – I have video of him stepping off the rubber and rolling his shoulders like he was stiff) and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him get to school. Potential top 10 guy for 2021.

Chimmy: Franmil Reyes – fluke?
Keith Law: Every game he has played this year has been in a PCL bandbox: 17 at El Paso, 8 at Las Vegas, 4 at Reno, and 4 at Albuquerque (where he went 11 for 17 with 4 homers).

Brandon: With Jay Groome essentially missing out on the first 2-3 years of his development, how much do you think that will set him back in the long run?
Keith Law: A lot. What a shame. He could come back with all his stuff, but he’ll essentially be 21 with the experience of a HS kid.

Grover: Would you have taken a chance on Harvey if he was completely unwilling to go to the minors and try and sort things out?
Keith Law: Yes.

Bertie Wooster: Did you get a chance to see Nomar Mazara as a prospect? Just a general questions on prospects – when you see a prospect and know he needs to develop in this area or that – do you then check back in after two or three years in the bigs- and see if they’ve made the adjustments?
Keith Law: Yes, saw him at 17 in the AZL. I’m not sure what the second question means … I always keep tabs on ex-prospects who haven’t panned out yet, because I need to think about why not, and if I should still project development for them.

John: Royce Lewis put up decent numbers in low A last year and is now putting up huge numbers. How soon should the Twins look to move him up?
Keith Law: It’s been 20 games. Yes, he’s putting up huge numbers, mostly contact/batting average, but I think it’s awfully early to be moving guys up unless they played half a season or more at that level last year. (FTR, I’m shocked Soto was moved up. He was very good when I saw him, but he didn’t scream “get him to AA” either.)

Paul: Any names connected to Atlanta’s second round pick?
Keith Law: I don’t even bother asking about second round picks or later. No team knows that today.

addoeh: And remember kids, Keith isn’t advocating cutting social studies class for Senior Day.
Keith Law: Yes I am.

TP: Any idea why Kelenic is playing for a travel team rather than a high school team?
Keith Law: I believe it exposes him to some better competition in that Iowa weekend league. I saw him, and that travel team he’s on is better than your typical cold-weather HS team.

Burt Reynolds: Is Sixto Sanchez hype more built around projection than present day skills? Obviously he is still young for his level but I have not seen any stats that stick out saying this kid is a #2 pitcher.
Keith Law: Kid was 96-101 at age 18 last year without much effort and good control, and struck out a man an inning in low-A before he was promoted. How many 18-year-olds can say all of that? Maybe one or two a year?

Marissa : Keith, thanks for the chat. Do you notice anything significant with Conforto’s early struggles or is it too early for Mets fans to panic?
Keith Law: I honestly don’t know to what extent we can point to his shoulder to explain it. I think it’s fair to wonder, but if that’s the case, then does that mean he won’t be right all year or until he takes more time off?

Ron: Who would any team give up the farm for Machado, when he’s there for the taking in 6 months?
Keith Law: If he can turn you from a borderline playoff team into a division winner, sure. If you’re way out of it, or already locked into a division title (likely, at least), then no.

Justin : David Price may have hurt himself playing video games? Big deal, little deal, no deal?
Keith Law: I’m pretty sure I saw that that is not a plausible explanation for this injury.

JR: Has anyone ever recommended “Everything I Never Told you” by Celeste Ng? I just finished and really enjoyed. Think you would like it too – and at just under 300 pages it’s a quick read.
Keith Law: I believe a reader recommended her other novel to me. Just haven’t gotten around to it. I’m currently reading Oscar & Lucinda, which won the Man Booker Prize; it’s good but kind of slow, as I think Carey was trying to write like the British masters of the mid-19th century and he did it too well.

J: I’m about 90% certain Vladdy Jr. will be up with the Jays at the ASB. When do you think Adames gets the call for the Rays?
Keith Law: If you said August 1st I’d say I was with you on Baby Vlad. Adames probably late June.

DH: Is Garrett Hampson good enough to crack the everyday lineup in Colorado?
Keith Law: Maybe … but man, I don’t know if he’s going to have enough power to be an everyday guy.

Kay: Any chance Bart makes it to the Mets?
Keith Law: Right now I would say 10% or less.

Scott: Have you seen Darick Hall? 28 HR last year at low A, already 10 at high A this year and walking more. I can only read the stat line, but the numbers remind me of Ryan Howard in that he’s pretty one-dimensional with a lot of power.
Keith Law: Yes. Older kid without any other tools. He’s nearly 23.

Steve: Do you think Bundy is hurt? Is he tradeable?
Keith Law: I don’t know if he’s hurt, but you don’t try to trade a guy like that after the worst start of his career. If you wanted to trade him three starts ago, sure, but now? Isn’t every other GM going to ask “why are you offering him today?”

Josh: Keith I an electoral question. I’m Liberal as they come, my state senator is a pro-Trump Republican. Problem is the only person running against him not only lacks charisma or political savvy, I have serious doubts about whether he is capable of the job other than being a rubber stamp to whatever the Democratic leadership tells him. We need to flip our State Senate back (this is NY) but I seriously question the candidate’s competence. Nobody else is running as of now, and it seems unlikely anyone else will. What to do?
Keith Law: What’s your other option? This is a problem inherent in our electoral system; other methods may produce better results but are more complex. My state Senator is a moderate Republican, and is competent and very nice (we had a long chat once about a law, which she ended up supporting, banning gay conversion therapy in Delaware), but because our state Senate is 11-10 D-R, we might be better off on some issues, like certain issues of science and the environment, with a less ‘competent’ Democrat. I may decide to vote that way, because it’s one or the other – I don’t get to shop for a better third option.

Grover: How annoying is the hot take narratives criticizing the DOdgers and Yankees for pulling pitchers during no-hitters? No-hitters strike me as special, fun moments, but it’s not like you get an extra win for it.
Keith Law: And there’s no way Buehler was finishing that. You want to make the next Bud Smith?

mike: From “win now” standpoint Vlad Jr. may justify a call up to DH full time with Toronto, however when does a call up make sense developmentally? other consideration is service time/control matter…. When do you think Vlad Jr debuts in Toronto??
Keith Law: They already have the extra year of control. If they want to play the super two game, but lose a month of his production, well, I think that’s just dumb, but teams do it.
Keith Law: (I’m not 100% sure he’s ready, BTW, but if he’s not now, he will be.)

San Cristóbal D.R: Hey Keith big fan .. I used to love Andújar at first but his OBP is way too low.. I think he need to go back to AAA least for now when drury comeback
Keith Law: His OBP and walk rate are too low, but it’s also just a month.

Jor: How far up the Yankees’ prospect list can Jonathan Loaisiga jump if he keeps this up?
Keith Law: With Freicer hurt, Abreu just back from injury, and Adams struggling, Loaisiga might be their 2nd or 3rd best pitching prospect right now. (Medina is in extended, and he’s the ‘maybe’ in there, with Sheffield 1.)

Josh: Thoughts on Fernando Romero thus far? 2 plus pitches?
Keith Law: Yes two plus pitches.

AGirlHasNoName: Why wouldn’t the market for Machado be less than in the last off-season? The packages being discussed seem like an awful lot of value for five months of a guy that can leave afterwards.
Keith Law: The O’s absolutely should have dealt him in the offseason and I said so at the time. The buyer would have gotten a full season of production plus a draft pick.

Eminor3rd: Given that picks 2-6 or so look like they’ll have players of the same “tier,” is it valid, at all, to say that it makes sense to go with a college position player in order to reduce risk?
Keith Law: I’m a little lost on this one. I think those picks will all be college position players. However, I think there are a couple of HS players who might make sense up there – Carter Stewart in particular – but who, for various reasons, aren’t likely to go that high.

Mark: Do you think the balls in play thing is an issue? What’s the fix?
Keith Law: Yes. Raise the bottom of the strike zone (which they did a little last year).

Andy: Why do the Brewers have an AAA team in Colorado Springs. What is there to keep them from taking Beloit, which has a Single A team, and saying, in 2019, this franchise will be our AAA squad and put them in the PCL or IL.
Keith Law: Many minor league teams are independent entities with franchise agreements with their leagues. The owners of Colorado Springs are moving the team to San Antonio after the season, and that move takes the PCL franchise with it. (San Antonio is moving to … Amarillo? Somewhere else in Texas.)

Scott: I have always thought that San Diego should draft college bats early (unless there is an outlier like Gore) and sign FA pitchers. They do not seem to follow this thinking. What are your thoughts on how SD should build their roster?
Keith Law: I don’t think they should force it. If the right college bat isn’t there, don’t do it. And Preller wants upside – at 7 they’re not likely to get a college bat with upside.

JG: What were your thoughts on Altuve as a prospect and a young Major Leaguer? Any inkling he would turn into MVP material?
Keith Law: I thought he’d be a regular. I saw him all of once, at a Futures Game, before his callup, but thought his swing was good and he was very strong for his size. I had no clue he was going to become a plus runner and basestealer and never forecast this power.

Adam Trask: NYT’s Kepner says we should re-examine Ruben’s tenure in Philly, saying he left the club in good shape. What say Klaw?
Keith Law: No, he did not leave the club in good shape, not the major league team and not the farm system.

NYTT: Love how big you’ve been on Bryse Wilson since he hit Rome last year. What’re your thoughts on him? Is he a higher floor/lower ceiling type guy or does he have significant upside in him?
Keith Law: Higher ceiling. Think he could end up a #2.

Timmy: I saw The Florida Project recently. Not trying to ruin it for anybody, but what is your take on the last scene? Is it really make believe – like kids pretending to go “on a safari”?
Keith Law: It’s fantasy. There’s no way that could have been real within the context of the film. It also underscores the dichotomy between the setting of the last scene and the setting of the rest of the movie.

K.C.: Does Newcomb’s use of a change up make him a viable #2-3?
Keith Law: He’s always had a good changeup.

Grover: I know college pitch counts has been a crusade for you (and one I agree with), but how is it that some of the more egregious coaches can continue to get top pitching recruits despite this practice? I have to imagine most of these kids and their parents have dreams of making the major leagues, don’t they recognize that throwing 150 times in a college game is detrimental to that?
Keith Law: The coaches tell the parents they’re the experts and they know what they’re doing, and most parents don’t know any better. How Vasil’s father, an attorney, didn’t lose his mind over the coach burning him for a useless inning of relief two days before his start, or Deason’s parents aren’t seething that their kid went 140 pitches the other day for U of Arizona (#naptime), is beyond me.

Tim: Can you name 5 prospects that are better than Juan Soto?
Keith Law: Yes. Vlad, Eloy, Gore, Tatis, Mejia.

Dave: Does the regression in control for Freicer Perez change your outlook for him at all?
Keith Law: The fact that he’s hurt changes my outlook, at least for now. A bad month doesn’t change my outlook on players without some underlying, systemic explanation.

Yuri: You might have answered this in the past, but who are your go to old school metal bands? Only recently started listening to Judas Priest, Dio, Danzig – and have really been digging them all.
Keith Law: Maiden is kind of the king of that mountain for me, as well as Sabbath. Then it’s more about certain songs, often ones that have some nostalgia value.
Keith Law: For whatever it’s worth, Danzig is more hard rock to me than metal. They dressed like a metal band but their music was never very heavy.

deetee: Most anticipated boardgame of 2018?
Keith Law: Founders of Gloomhaven & Rising Sun come to mind. Some other lesser ones by designers I like (Mercado comes to mind).

Ryan: Can you try to explain what front offices are doing at this moment to prepare for the draft? I’m assuming the fact-finding phase never really ends but at some point they have to be switching into the decision making phase. The whole process is fascinating to me.
Keith Law: Lot of teams doing scout meetings – bring the whole staff to one place to review all the players over 2-3 days – this week or next, before the college conference tournaments.

JR: I’m getting old. The 2008 MLB draft is the first one I really followed and remember (probably thanks in part to your coverage). Seeing some of those names in the re-draft was just depressing. It’s really been 10 years already since those guys were drafted?
Keith Law: I had the same thought. It’s weird to me that I’m now redrafting drafts that happened after I left the Jays.

Evan: Going to Tokyo/Kyoto, any food recs? (not sure if youve been)
Keith Law: Never been, sorry. But I might be in Stockholm in the very near future, so I’m happy to take food or other recs from readers. I’ll have most of an afternoon and evening free before the event I’m going for.

Mike: What kind of reports have you gotten on Jesus Luzardo this season? Is he a top 100 guy for you at this point?
Keith Law: Nothing but positive since spring training. Stuff better, still has great control. He wasn’t far from the 100 this offseason, so with graduations/injuries, it’s fair to say I’d have him on.

Louie: What is a good first step for someone who thinks some kind of medication for anxiety/depression is necessary? Is it best to just be up front with a professional about it and what you think you need or will that seem like you are fishing for prescription?
Keith Law: Talk to your primary care doctor first. SSRIs, the main drugs of choice for treating depression or generalized anxiety disorder, are not drugs of abuse.

Rey: Keith, I’m loving your book. I’m just wondering why you focused on UZR and didn’t speak about DRS in the defense chapter? Is it later in the book?
Keith Law: I have always preferred UZR.

John: What did you think about Soto, Kieboom, and Agustin Monday? You mentioned that Soto ran a 70 to 1st — how does that gibe with the 40/45 speed I’ve seen elsewhere. Thanks!
Keith Law: I have a blog post up on those guys. I don’t know about the 40/45 speed. The stopwatch doesn’t lie – you can’t run like that to first with below-average speed.

Josh: Is it time to worry about Paul Goldschmidt? Under .210 average since 9/1 last year which is over 200 AB and has not had had a month below .230 since his rookie year… he is striking out at an alarming rate ( on pace for 200+) and if you take away his first week and a half of the season, he is not walking as much or taking as many pitches. His bat looks really slow against even just moderately good FB. Thoughts?
Keith Law: So a third of a season. I know I say this over and over, but we’re still talking about a fairly short period of time in the career of a hitter with a long, established track record of all-star performance.

Jimmy R: I have a week long family reunion next week in a big house. There’s 20 of us going, 3 are huge Trump supporters. My brother asked that politics not be brought up. But if we are spending a week together, I don’t see how it’s not; especially with all this crap happening on a daily basis. My plan is to be quiet and not bring it up but I’m wondering what I can do if there’s a huge breaking story that can’t be ignored. What you think?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t go. I’m not staying quiet – all that is necessary for the triumph of evil, and all that – so I’ll bow out.

Kevin Maas: I refuse contact with someone who disagrees with my politics. P.S. I’m so tolerant. -KLaw
Keith Law: Google the “paradox of tolerance.” You might learn something, popper.

Tim: I’m excited about Seranthony Dominguez simply because if his name. Can he pitch? Bullpen the final destination for him?
Keith Law: Legit two plus pitches with pretty good command. Bullpen guy.

Jamie: Seeing how the Astros won it all and have a great future, any regrets not taking that job?
Keith Law: Absolutely not.

QMan: Have you ever considered a full review of MLB stars with rankings? Basically an ageless top 25< 25 with tool grades?
Keith Law: Nope nope nope land of ten thousand nopes.

Scott: I know you said Soto’s approach needs some refinement, but do you think the Nats with this most recent promotion might be hoping that Soto will be ready at some point next year to take over in RF if Harper doesn’t sign? Or do organizations not take stuff like that into consideration?
Keith Law: I’m sure getting him to the majors in the next year, while they’re still good, is part of their thinking.

Nick: What is a realistic outcome for Justus Shefield? Above average MLB starter? More?
Keith Law: Above average major league starter, yes.

Matt: Have you heard any tracks from the new Arctic Monkeys’ album? Any reviews so far?
Keith Law: Tomorrow, right? I haven’t heard anything yet.

QMan: Why is there no grade for batting eye or feel for the zone? As OBP has become so important in the last 15 years why is there kontool associated with it?
Keith Law: There is. I think most teams have it as a box on the scouting report.

Turner Watts: I got some Himalayan salt skewers as a gift for teacher appreciation day. Have you ever used before?
Keith Law: No. I don’t much go for fancy salts – it’s still almost entirely sodium chloride, and few if any people can taste the difference – but salt skewers of any color sound interesting.

Andrew: When you’re scouting a player at a high school game, where do you usually prefer to sit to watch the player?
Keith Law: Behind the plate for a pitcher, then up the line to watch his delivery from the side. For a hitter, I stand to see his open side (see his hands, not his ass).

K.C.: What sort of potential does Bryce Wilson have, and why wasn’t he viewed more highly out of high school?
Keith Law: Bad delivery out of HS. Atlanta cleaned him right up. Answered on his potential above.

JR: Thoughts on sports betting? Do you think it should be legalized and regulated in every state? I live in Vegas and enjoy being able to place the occasional wager (and am fortunate that I have the means to do so).
Keith Law: Yes, it should be legalized, regulated, and taxed. It’s going to happen anyway; better to generate some state revenue from it, and also police potential malfeasance. I think weed should be legalized as well and handled the same way.

Soto Can Hit!: Were you saying you did not think Soto’s approach is ready for AA or MLB this year with regards to the earlier question you answered?
Keith Law: Is not ready for MLB right now.

Kevin: Have you had a chance to see Bichette play this year? Numbers look good still, but I don’t know much about the quality of the league to say anything. Still high on him?
Keith Law: Yes, and yes.

JR: Baseball ceases to exist tomorrow, but ESPN honors your contract and lets you choose which other sport to cover. What sport do you pick?
Keith Law: Lacrosse.

Anthony: Who do you view as being the most likely prospect from your offseason top 100 to come up next? With Mejia’s injury, Senzel’s vertigo, etc., is anyone closer than Adames (possibly) in late June?
Keith Law: Vlad could really come up at any point, although I’m not predicting it just yet. Or Robles, when he returns from the DL.

PD: A lot of the top Pirates draft picks from last year (Baz, Jennings, Uselton) aren’t currently playing in leagues (held back in extended?). Is this a sign of a more conservative organizational approach or does this raise concerns about their current ability?
Keith Law: All in extended. All three HS kids, very young, also probably managing the two pitchers’ innings.

Mike: Nathaniel Lowe has been tearing the cover off the ball in A+. What have you been hearing about him?
Keith Law: Nothing, since he’s an older 1b repeating the level.

Chris: I’ve always loved your redraft columns, do you think you’ll have time to add a 2007 one now that you’re not writing a book?
Keith Law: No, probably not. The editors last year wanted me to redraft 2012, not 2007, but I said it was too soon for that.

Justin : Which of the Pulitzer fiction novels that you read is most accessible for your average reader?
Keith Law: To Kill a Mockingbird or The Yearling.

Steve: how close is Brendan Rodgers to being MLB ready?
Keith Law: I think I’m seeing him Monday, so maybe ask me next chat!

Concerned: Recently got my daughter her first round of shots, and my family was concerned that we didn’t spread them out more. I don’t agree with them, but why are they wrong?
Keith Law: They are wrong because they don’t really understand anything about biology. The human immune system is exposed to thousands of potential pathogens every day, even those of infants or toddlers (who put everything in their mouths). The tiny number of weak or dead viruses in vaccines are a drop in the ocean to our bodies. And thank you for vaccinating, both for taking good care of your daughter and for helping maintain herd immunity for those who can’t be vaccinated.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you as always for reading. The 2008 draft busts piece will go up on Saturday rather than tomorrow, so please keep an eye out for that as well. As for the next chat, bear with me as I’m not sure yet when it will be. Enjoy your weekends!

You Were Never Really Here.

I’m a known sucker for just about anything noir or even noir-ish – I mean, my most anticipated movie of 2018 is The Happytime Murders, which might be best categorized as “Muppet film noir” – so Lynne Ramsey’s latest movie, You Were Never Really Here, is more or less right in my subjective wheelhouse. It is dark as hell, unrelenting, and viscerally satisfying even as the grotesque imagery disturbs you. With yet another star turn from Joaquin Phoenix in the lead role, it gives the hero/antihero dichotomy a third look, with a detective who suffers from PTSD due to repeated traumas and channels some of that energy into finding missing girls – and into brutally beating his adversaries with a hammer.

Based on a novella by Jonathan Ames, You Were Never Really Here gives us Joe (Phoenix), a private detective who seems obsessed with secrecy to a paranoid extent, and who we see from the very start engages in self-destructive behavior like nearly asphyxiating himself in dry-cleaner plastic bags. He returns from a successful rescue in Cincinnati to see his boss, McCleary (John Doman of The Wire), and eventually receives a new assignment to rescue the missing daughter of a widowed state senator. Beginning with an address that the senator received via an anonymous text, Joe stakes out the building, which he suspects is a brothel with underaged girls inside, but the rescue attempt opens him up to a broader conspiracy – perhaps justifying his earlier paranoia – and a spreading web of violence that puts everyone close to Joe in the killers’ sights.

The mystery around the missing girl, Nina (played by Ekaterina Samsonov, who is 15 but looks much younger for this role), is secondary to the story of Joe, which we get via brief, often disjointed flashbacks as they might appear in Joe’s own mind as he re-experiences traumatic memories from childhood, where his father was abusive to him and to Joe’s mother; and from his time serving in the Army in the Middle East. The depiction of trauma is hard to watch, but ultimately realistic in how the brain revisits the trauma and the actions a victim might take as coping mechanisms that don’t do anything to solve the long-term problem. Rather than use the traumatic history as a plot device – here’s why Joe is the way he is – the film shows the ongoing damage he’s suffering from it. To the very end, there is no indication that Joe, who wants to assure Nina that thinks will be okay, is anything close to okay himself.

Phoenix is tremendous in this role, delivering a more nuanced performance than he did with his Oscar-nominated impersonation of Johnny Cash in Walk the Line, giving Joe the right level of simmering rage that gives little warning before it boils over. He won Best Actor at Cannes last year, just about a year ago this week, for the film, which also won the Best Screenplay award there for Ramsey. (It lost the Palme d’Or to The Square, which is a poor choice and seems a very Cannes thing to have happen.) Samsonov is a revelation in a small but critical role, one that becomes much more important and, I would imagine, difficult for a child actor, as the story progresses and Nina becomes more than just a prop for the plot.

The film is dark in the literal sense as well, with grimy shots of alleys and stairwells, disorienting top-down shots of Joe in action, and even some violence (almost all of which is left off-camera) shown as if on security-camera footage. The hammer is Joe’s weapon of choice, for reasons that become apparent in the film as well, but Ramsey films the various assaults from behind Joe or from such a distance that you don’t actually see the hits. There’s blood in the film, but it’s all shown after the fact, and in those cases it’s not Joe’s doing; the one time we see Joe interacting with one of his own victims, the result is morbidly comic and almost sentimental, one of the only times we get a glimpse of Joe’s deeply empathetic streak when he’s not beating someone’s brains in.

The lack of air is a recurring motif in this film, a possible metaphor for the feelings of panic and the sense of being ‘trapped’ that often haunt PTSD sufferers until they get real help (not just, say, cognitive behavioral therapy, which doesn’t work for PTSD). There’s no sign here that Joe has ever sought treatment, so he’s caught in a cycle of reliving his traumas, even dissociating for moments, to the point where I expected it to eventually cost him in a physical conflict. (I won’t spoil whether that happens.) But we keep returning to situations where he can’t breathe, or finds someone in such a situation, which certainly mirrors the experience of having a full-blown panic attack.

This isn’t a movie for everyone or even for most people; it’s grim, there’s enough results-of-violence on screen to merit the R rating, and while we see none of the abuse of underaged girls, it’s present enough in the story that it would likely deter many viewers. I think it’s superb, however, reminiscent of the bleak noir novels of Jim Thompson (The Killer Inside Me, pop. 1280) or Horace McCoy’s They Shoot Horses, Don’t They?. While not quite as hopeless as those books can be, You Were Never Really Here captures that same sense of existential darkness, and like Thompson’s books in particular, it succeeds in getting us inside the head of the protagonist and using the crime as a vehicle to explore his character in a way few films in the detective/noir genre have done.

Stick to baseball, 5/5/18.

My first mock draft for 2018 is now up for Insiders, as is a short post on the Ronald Acuña show. I also held a Klawchat on Friday.

I did some podcasts with friends this week. I appeared on the Productive Outs podcast to talk some baseball and music. Then I talked with Seth Heasley on his Hugos There podcast to discuss To Say Nothing of the Dog, one of my all-time favorite comic novels (and a Hugo Award winner). And of course on Thursday I was on the BBTN podcast with Buster Olney.

By the way, if any of you happen to live in/near Stockholm, there’s a pretty good chance I’m going to be there for a conference in the near future. Let me know in the comments what I should try to do or see in the few hours I’ll have free while there.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 5/4/18.

My first mock draft for 2018 is now up for Insiders.

Keith Law: Money only pays the rent. Klawchat.

Tyler: I can only scout the stat line, but I’d guess with 9 BB in 11.1 innings that Josh Staumont still hasn’t figured it out? Career minor leaguer?
Keith Law: He’ll get major league opportunities, but the strike-throwing has always been the problem. The delivery is fine, the stuff is plus, the dude can’t throw it over the pointy white thing.

Chase: Do you think it’s a mistake for the Cardinals to have Jordan Hicks as a reliever before ever giving him a chance to start? Seems like they don’t mention him getting a chance like their other young arms that start in the BP.
Keith Law: On the contrary, I like breaking in starters as relievers. Earl Weaver pioneered this, and I’ve never seen any harm in it other than that teams sometimes shoot themselves in the foot by liking a guy so much in relief they forget to start him.

addoeh: How great would it be for Ichiro to retire after getting a couple of at bats when the Mariners play the A’s in Japan next year?
Keith Law: And an inning. There has to be one more inning on the mound before he goes.

BigPapaChuck: How far out are Kyle Wright and Ian Anderson for Atlanta? Could we see them this summer at all, or is 2019 more realistic?
Keith Law: Ian Anderson has a 5+ ERA through 5 starts in high-A. That’s just not a realistic question. Wright is closer and we have seen plenty of starters go from the SEC to the majors inside of 15 months.

Justin R: Who would say no to a 10-year, $300 million extension for Mookie Betts right now?
Keith Law: I don’t think either side would say no; Dombrowski hardly shies away from super-long extensions.

Ben: When is a middling team like the twins considered “done?” It’s probably different for a stacked underachieving team like the Dodgers, but for a team that needed to exceed expectations to make the playoffs and has struggled mightily, is there a certain point where they should look to sell?
Keith Law: In most cases, I’d say wait till Memorial Day before making any serious decisions like that. I would make an exception for the Orioles on Machado – they are not going anywhere this year, in that division, with that pitching staff, and there’s a clear need for Machado on at least one contender. Trading him now vs. June or July could really boost the return in a material way.

addoeh: On a 20-80 scale, how bad of a travel day was yesterday for you? Wake up in a hotel in one city two hours before the sun rises, fly to different part of the country, drive another two hours to see watch prospects, make the two return trip after the game, and a red eye back home.
Keith Law: So for folks who don’t know what my schedule was, I saw Jarred Kelenic in Kenosha, WI, on Wednesday evening (he was good); drove to Midway to stay that night; woke up at 5:10 am CDT to fly to Atlanta; landed an hour late due to weather; drove two hours to Ringgold, Georgia, to see Cole Wilcox (good) vs Kumar Rocker (not); drove back into Atlanta traffic, so probably spent three hours total on the way down, stopping for dinner (Recess at Krog Street Market, which was fantastic); then had my flight home delayed an hour because some part on the jetbridge shorted out and caught fire. I crawled into bed at 2 am ET. I don’t think this is unusual for scouts, so I’m not doing a “woe is me” thing here, but holy shit am I tired.

Dr. Bob: My kids are geeking out over May the Force Be with You day. Do you follow any sci-fi/fantasy stuff? Star Trek? Star Wars? X-Men? Avengers?
Keith Law: Not any more. Loved Star Wars as a kid. Anyway, Happy Cinco de Cuatro!

Larry: The Gorman-Atlanta connection is interesting. What’s your read on his swing and miss, plus chances he stays at third? Can he play corner OF if not?
Keith Law: Lot of swing and miss, but exacerbated this spring by what I think is a new, pull-conscious approach, when the dude should just worry about hitting. He’ll accidentally drop 30 bombs if he hits at all. Right field most likely, but even though he’s not good at third right now, I’d give him at least two years there. Austin Riley was a below-average defender when Atlanta drafted him, worked on it, got in shape, and now he’s at least a 55 defender there (from a 40), maybe even more.

Bret: If you were in Ross Atkins’ shoes, when does Vlad Guerrero Jr. get his first MLB call-up?
Keith Law: August.

Greg: Is Atlanta a legitimate contender for the division title or a wildcard spot?
Keith Law: Probably not, but I’m enjoying watching them anyway. It will be interesting to see if Anthopoulos trades away any prospect depth in July if they’re still in it. They do have some surplus on the pitching side, and guys who may not make their rotation would have value to other clubs.

Sean: What are your thoughts on Joe Gray, Jr? Is he a top 2 round guy?
Keith Law: That’s how I have him ranked.

PJ in JC: Jalen Beeks. A guy or a GUY?
Keith Law: Just a guy, I’m told. I have not seen him.

Jackstradamus: How good do you think Christian Villanueva actually is?
Keith Law: Everyday player, maybe? Not a .660+ SLG guy.

Brian: Before a couple of years ago I don’t remember any position players having Tommy John surgery. Now I can think of at least 4 (Knapp, Torres, Wieters and now Seager). Has something changed about how position players throw?
Keith Law: Craig Wilson, Todd Hundley, John Baker. I think Rocco Baldelli had it. Kyle Blanks. Shin-Soo Choo, but he pitched some as an amateur and threw hard. I think you don’t remember them because they don’t miss as much time.

Prospect Expansion Pack: Have you seen/ heard anything about Luis Robert or Juan Pablo Martinez this spring?
Keith Law: Neither has played.

Jack: Jeter Downs is playing second with Jose Israel Garcia at SS. If Downs moves to a higher level before Garcia, do you think he moves back to short?
Keith Law: Yes, if only for maintaining some flexibility.

Matthew: What is your take on the Braves calling up Bautista today? I think it’s a good move but Braves twitter is not so sure.
Keith Law: Eh. Worth seeing if there’s anything left.

JT: Do you find it exhausting to constantly have to swat at proliferating hate online? I found an old friend online this week, only to discover that he believes in climate denial, racial essentialism and Jordan Peterson. I’m tired.
Keith Law: Yes, but I feel an obligation. I have a sizable platform. I could just use it to promote myself, but I think I should try to use it to do some good in the world.

leprekhan: You mentioned Nolan Gorman as being connected to the Braves in your mock, are there any other names that they have been connected to? How strong of a possibility is Kumar Rocker at #8?
Keith Law: I don’t think there’s any chance they do Rocker there. He’s not good enough, and yesterday didn’t help his chances.

286: What is DL Hall’s ceiling for the Orioles?
Keith Law: Above-average or better big league starter.

Jack: Is Dennis Santana’s changeup a legit enough third pitch to make him a potential #3?
Keith Law: No. Not a starter’s delivery the last time I saw him, either.

Steve: Is Stanton’a slow start just SSS streakiness, or something mechanical?
Keith Law: Homeboy’s slow start is still a .336 wOBA, so it’s more than he has hit for a month the way he hit all of last year. I’m not concerned.

Chris: What’s the deal with Senzel getting pulled from the game yesterday. I really hope this isn’t the vertigo revisiting.
Keith Law: Dizziness, per C. Trent Rosecrans & Guildenstern, Attorneys at I Don’t Make the Lineup.

Travis: Reports are that Cole Wilcox was amazing last night. How high could he go? Have any teams emerged as likely landing spots?
Keith Law: I was there. He was very good; amazing might be pushing it. I had him in the new mock and believe he goes in the top 20 or so picks.

Garrett: Has Ohtani’s hot start at the dish changed your mind at all? He destroys the baseball almost every time he is up. Or is it still too few PA’s?
Keith Law: It’s 55 AB. And no, he doesn’t destroy the baseball almost every time he is up. Good grief.

Chris: I see Gore hasn’t pitched in full action since his first start. Any cause to worry about an injury?
Keith Law: Blister.

Ben G: Hey Keith,

Do you share Mike Rizzo’s belief that Juan Soto has a similar outlook as a prospect to Robles?
Keith Law: Similar upside, yes. Different player. I’ll see him Monday here in Wilmington along with Kieboom.

EricVA: Justus Sheffield to AAA. Can he help the Yankees this year or not until next year?
Keith Law: This year if needed. Wouldn’t object to a relief role to start for him.

Ron Shelton: I think the real-life Nuke LaLoosh has finally arrived and his name is Matt Manning.
Keith Law: Where are the Tigers fans who were extremely mad online when I didn’t rank Manning in my top 100?
Keith Law: FTR, I don’t think the book is closed on Manning, but he had serious control problems last year and didn’t show the same velocity he had in HS.

Todd: Who has a better major league career, Michael Gettys or Buddy Reed?
Keith Law: Neither.

286: Dylan Bundy has had two rough starts in a row. Is that a byproduct of the calcification in his shoulder? How long can he hold up?
Keith Law: No healthy pitcher has ever had two rough starts in a row. I’m so glad you brought this to our attention.

JT: Have you heard of the QAnon nonsense on Twitter and Facebook? Is there any way for those platforms to rid themselves of such obvious misinformation?
Keith Law: Those platforms just don’t do enough to rid themselves of trolls, bots, etc. There’s a Twitter account with a decent following whose profile quotes the Turner Diaries (a notorious anti-Semitic, racist trash novel revered by neo-Nazis). I reported it. They said “no violation.”

Marissa: Hi Keith. I am wondering how much you think Mets fans should buy into Alonso’s numbers and if you think he will/has passed Dom in terms of how highly the Mets look into him as the future 1B.
Keith Law: I answered this last week. I’m a believer.

Adam D.: With the full understanding that it’s way too early to be sure about anything, what level of confidence do you have that Singer is the pick for the Giants at #2? I am not enthusiastic about it, as you might have noticed.
Keith Law: I have heard them with four players; he and Bart are the two most likely, again, given what I’ve heard from #sources.
Keith Law: I share your lack of enthusiasm. I have never understood the fascination with Singer. There are guys with better stuff, and better deliveries, and better command in this draft.

Joe: What makes Lucchesi’s two pitch mix effective (where other starters can’t survive with just two) and do you think he can have long term success with just two pitches?
Keith Law: Hitters do not pick up pitches well at all from him. His release point is extremely consistent.

Jack: What were your grades on Nomar Mazara’s raw and game power as a prospect? The guy looks like he should be hitting 35 a year and he doesn’t hit any cheap bombs, but his overall approach doesn’t always get to the pop.
Keith Law: I don’t do grades any more – people would focus way too much on the numbers and not on the words, and I am not fucking interested in arguing if a player has 60 speed or 65 speed, sorry – but I always thought he’d be a 30-homer guy. He did have plus raw even when young.

Joe: You mocked Gorman to the Braves at 8. Do you think n he is the highest upside power hsbat in draft? And would you take him that high?
Keith Law: He has the most raw power in the draft, period. I would not take him there, because the hit tool really worries me, but that’s not to say this is a bad pick.

1904 MDB: Fernando Tatis JR. starting to catch fire, where does he end the year?
Keith Law: Probably triple-A.

Didier: Do you ever read comics or graphic novels? Any favorites?
Keith Law: No, not a fan.

Dave: Is Bobby Witt Jr someone who could end up being the next “super prospect”, like Harper or Griffey?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. Good prospect, but also just the name you know because of his bloodlines.

Mike: Assuming Josh can play third base, no way the Jays can call up Vlad and stick him at DH……right?
Keith Law: Why not? Vlad was rough at third the last game I saw him, and his bat is clearly going to be ready before his glove.

Roger: If I, a regular old fan, wanted to find out information about a minor leaguer I’m interested in, what’s the best way to find out if he’s a GUY or just a guy? Scouting the stat line is only so helpful.
Keith Law: I write about a few hundred guys every January in the prospect package and then write about more every week, here and on Insider posts.

Jack: I just gave up on Corey Ray. Am I dumb?
Keith Law: Too soon. Plus, you hurt his feelings.

Ryan: While totally aware that Albies can’t sustain this HR pace, is it safe to expect some legit power out of him going further without sacrificing average and OBP?
Keith Law: I guess it depends on “legit;” 20 homers/year? Sure. I’ll buy that.

Archie: I see a lot of Joe Panik in Madrigal, albeit from the other side of the plate and with more speed. Is that a fair comp?
Keith Law: I like Madrigal’s bat a lot more than I liked Panik’s at the same age.

Lilith: What would it realistically take to get MLB to place a 3rd team in the New York area? (either Brooklyn or Newark)
Keith Law: Revoking MLB’s antitrust exemption. I don’t expect that to happen in my lifetime.

Tyler: Hi Keith. Do you think Sonny Gray can get back to his A’s form?
Keith Law: Yes, but they’ll have to change his pitch mix and get him to try to work four-seamers up again.

Satya: How does Casey Mize compare to Kyle Wright as a draft prospect?
Keith Law: Mize is way better.
Keith Law: Wright had size. Mize has better stuff, better command/control.

Moltar: Thanks for chatting, Keith. Your info is always solid so I’m sure it’s motivated, but India to the Mets at 6 was very surprising. Most reports I saw on him had him more sandwich round than top 10. Was this more a function of Bart, Bohm and Madrigal being off the board in your mock? If the Mets are intent on a college bat, do they clearly prefer India to, say, Swaggerty?
Keith Law: Again, this is all based on what I’ve heard from sources in the industry. Nobody in the industry thinks India is a sandwich pick. Swaggerty is barely hitting above .300 in a bad conference where he’s faced almost no quality pitching. I like the profile – CF with some pop, good eye, plus speed – but he has to actually hit, and his swing has slipped a little bit this spring.

Pat D: I just heard Harold Reynolds on WFAN and he said, and I am quoting, “The more pitches you take, the less chance you’re going to walk.” Now, he was trying to say that young guys who are struggling have to prove they can hit because otherwise pitchers will eventually just throw strikes by them. But, much more importantly, COME ON, am I right?
Keith Law: You made several mistakes there, starting with listening to Harold Reynolds on WFAN.

Phillip : Is bringing up Jose Bautista before seeing what you really have in Camargo a mistake?
Keith Law: Camargo isn’t a long-term piece.

John: What’s Fernando Romero’s upside, Wed he was throwing hard and it looked like both the FB and the slider had decent movement.
Keith Law: Top 100 guy for me the last two years. I think mid-rotation starter.

PJ in JC: Follow up on Beeks: does his ability to miss bats suggest he could at least be a weapon in the bullpen?
Keith Law: Yes.

Edward: Tyler Mahle has been striking out hitters at a higher rate in the bigs than any stop before in his career. Has he found another gear or pitch? Or just another sample size situation?
Keith Law: Aren’t strikeouts higher in general in the majors?

Rendall: I’m glad that Facebook has made eliminating fake profiles and fake news part of their new marketing campaign. Meanwhile, my feed continues to be full of it…
Keith Law: Yep. All talk, no action.

Darren: YOu mentioned Jordan Hicks so I’m curious, what would you do with Hader if you were GM? Have him start when Knebel gets back and ramp up his innings to be able to go 6 in the playoffs? If they make it.
Keith Law: I have always had a hard time seeing Hader starting with that arm action. He may truly have more value in this role than he could in 170 innings starting.

Dave in Delaware: Hi, Keith! Are there any players (HS or college) worthy of scouting time or attention in Delaware this year? If so, have you seen them?
Keith Law: I saw one kid, UVA commit, nice player but should go to school. I won’t see the three at Cape Henlopen, just due to distance and that they’re not top 100 guys, but all are d1 commits (UNC, UVA, Liberty) and could be top 100 types in three years.

Jacob: How close is the talent gap between Jarred Kelenic and Connor Scott? Is the difference the lengthy track record that Kelenic possess?
Keith Law: I think Kelenic has shown a lot more at the plate, hitting and especially power.

Josh: What are your thoughts on Matt Klentak? It seems like he’s really struggled with his first two drafts
Keith Law: He doesn’t run the draft; that’s Johnny Almaraz, their scouting director. This is a bit like that tweet I responded to a week ago, where Frank Wren was trying to take credit for Ronald Acuña – no GM sees the $100K kid his international director signs in Venezuela. That’s absurd. I think the Phils’ rebuild is very much on track, and I think it’s fair to say the Phillies have struggled badly with their last few first round picks, even predating Klentak – Cornelius Randolph doesn’t appear like he’ll ever justify going 10th overall, and Moniak and Haseley have been an unnatural disaster in Clearwater (Moniak .218/.231/.257, Haseley .271/.284/.355, a combined 4 walks and 46 K for the two of them).

Gary: Team needs or drafting philosophies notwithstanding, would it be a bad choice to take Madrigal 2nd after Mize? Reading through your mock, it seems like he has the best chance to be a productive big leaguer from the rest of the pool.
Keith Law: I think that’s a high floor and very limited ceiling pick. If you do that, you had better save enough to go well over slot in the second round.

Dave: What position do you think Mountcastle ends up at for Baltimore?
Keith Law: Most likely left field, but I’d keep trying to work on the throwing motion and see if he can stay at third. Dude’s gonna hit, though.

RSO: Is it possible for pitchers to boost their spin rate as much as some of the Astros starters have since coming to Houston, or do you think there is something fishy going on as Trevor Bauer alluded to?
Keith Law: I didn’t like when Bauer appeared to be accusing the Astros without directly saying so. His longer comments – no character limits! – were excellent, though: It is true that adhering something like pine tar to the ball can raise its spin rate, and that it is technically prohibited but scarcely if ever enforced. My understanding is that there are players doing this stuff now, but I don’t know anything at all about team-wide efforts like he implied.

Jax : Has Norris reached the point when a conversion to the bullpen needs to be discussed? Poor guy cannot stay healthy.
Keith Law: Almost none of this has been related to his arm.

Nick: Jonathan India has put up some sexy numbers this season. I’m intrigued by him after you mocked him to the Mets at 6. Do you think that would be a solid pick at 6 and what type of player do you see him becoming?
Keith Law: Very solid pick. Everyday player. I’d send him out as a shortstop, knowing you could always restore him to third or slide him to second.

Jax : I don’t expect Basabe to continue to put up these massive numbers but do you think he’s doing so because he’s repeating High-A? Or because he’s fully healthy now? Or a bit of both?
Keith Law: Almost certainly both.

Matt: Patrick Corbin’s fastball was down 3 MPH last night from his season average. He and Lovullo brushed it off as nothing, but that’s concerning right? How often does a guy lose velocity like that so dramatically and bounce right back to where he was? I honestly don’t know if this is something that happens or if this is an imminent sign of injury.
Keith Law: It’s concerning because it’s happened before. Corbin looks like a #2 at times, but has he ever held that for a full season?

Joe : Hey Keith, love the chats. If you could choose to have the Chapman or Andrew Miller return that the Yanks got back which would you take moving forward?
Keith Law: I think at the time I said I preferred the Miller return. That’s probably still true, but less clear.

Jax : Eric Longenhagen said that Christian Arroyo could possibly have a Solarte type of role and play all over the diamond while hitting fairly well? Would you agree with that assessment?
Keith Law: I’m not sure he’s going to be as good defensively anywhere, but that seems more likely an outcome to me than everyday player at one spot.

Dan: Walker Buehler seemingly has a rotation spot that’s his to lose with the Ryu injury. How has Buehler looked so far this season? Where do you think they’ll cap his innings if he’s pitching well and the team is contending?
Keith Law: Didn’t they give a number before the season, as a rough target? I may be misremembering. Anyway, I would expect them to have him skip a start here or there because he’s never really had a full, healthy season.

Chaya: I know he’s young and it’s still early, but are you concerned at all about Heliot Ramos?
Keith Law: Not just young – he’s 18, younger than some guys in this draft class, and in full-season ball. I didn’t think the huge summer was indicative of stardom, but I also am not jumping off the Golden Gate now after a bad month. This is a big leap for a kid that young who was already a little raw at the plate.

Brett: What do you see as Yordan Alvarez’s ceiling? Does he have all-star upside?
Keith Law: Above-average regular.

Jax : Your Astros sleeper Arauz has more walks than Ks and is hitting for far more power than he ever has while being a teenager in full season ball. Trajectory is certainly pointing way up, no?
Keith Law: Yes it is … as long as he stays off the juice.

Gray: Still no Juan Soto questions? Has Cooperstown started working on his plaque yet? Kid rakes.
Keith Law: Answered a half hour ago. Scroll back.

nelson: What do you think about other sports’ draft coverage? For me, I find stuff like NFL draft coverage to be extremely dull, full of “woo”, and totally mindless. Enjoy your coverage bc it’s based on knowledge you glean from conversations and not just 40 times.
Keith Law: I can’t imagine covering a draft with 15 minutes between picks. I do love that they have trades – our draft would be so much better with that. The NBA’s draft is the best on TV, IMO, because it’s only a few minutes between picks, the players are all there (in their sartorial splendor), and there can still be trades.

RSO: If Gleyber Torres was still in the Cubs organization would Addison Russell or Javier Baez be in danger of losing their jobs?
Keith Law: Yes, Russell more so. He seems to have stalled at the plate.
Keith Law: I’m most concerned with how he isn’t making hard contact like he used to.

Luke (Statesboro, Ga.): Is this the year Jorge Soler figures it out?
Keith Law: It sure looks like he has. He lost a lot of time to injuries, and although I always rated him highly I don’t think I ever projected him to be an OBP monster.

Pat: Hypothetical- If something happened to Mize (injury, bad medicals, whatever), who do you think Detroit would go with at 1-1.
Keith Law: Entirely fair question. My guess is they would shop a deal to 3-4 players, probably including Stewart, Singer, Bart, maybe Liberatore. Most folks I asked for that mock just assumed they’d take Mize, so I’m a little light on other info there.

Sean: How has Cal Quantrill looked so far this season?
Keith Law: What I’ve heard has been good – lot of 92-95, still working on better strikes, has really had just one bat outing out of six.

Ryan: Thanks for chatting Keith. If you are placing the top draft prospects into tiered buckets, at what slots do they move from Tier I to Tier II, Tier II to Tier III, etc?
Keith Law: Mize is in his own tier. I’d reorder that last top 50, with Winn, Bart, and India sliding up and Rocker, Vasil, McClanahan sliding down, and I’d put a line between those groups.
Keith Law: No more word on Vasil’s injury; he may throw a pen this week. It was irresponsible to have him throw an unscheduled relief inning that Saturday, two days before a scheduled start. Scouts were there Monday for the start, not Saturday.

Jim: You were high on Bryse Wilson – think you ranked him Top 60ish in your Top 100 – he’s been great this year. Assuming still a SP prospect for you?
Keith Law: Yep, all signs pointing up.

Craig: Are you doing the usual prospect update in May? Is Yordan Alvarez going to be one of the big risers
Keith Law: 1b only limits his ceiling. My May updates are cursory and usually only include 25 names, with just brief updates on injuries/promotions; I doubt he’d jump that far.

John: How do you think the Nats will approach the draft?
Keith Law: Same as always. They’ll take well-known guys with big upsides. Maybe an injured pitcher who fell.
Keith Law: Hell, it’s worked for them in the past.

JR: Kentucky Derby – interested or hard pass? Personally, I’ve never understood the appeal of horse racing.
Keith Law: I’ll watch. I don’t bet, and I don’t follow the sport. It’s a fun two minutes, though.

Walker: What happened to Jordan Swaggerty?
Keith Law: One g. Blew out and never really made it back.
Keith Law: Threw 26 innings total after TJ, missing all of 2012 and 2014.

Jon: Could vaccine hoaxers actually be harming efforts to find a cause/cure for autism? With so many studies focused on disproving the link between the two, doesn’t that take away from funding and studies that could be used to find a cause/cure?
Keith Law: I think they’re harming societal acceptance of autistic people, who are still more often lumped in with people who have mental disabilities rather than being classed as neurodiverse, as many autistic advocates would like to be.

Nick: What is Trent Grisham at this point? Can he still be an everyday player or better?
Keith Law: He’s on the DL with an ankle sprain right now, so let’s give him some time back at AA.

Jack: Have you watched Matt Boyd at all this year? Thoughts? I vaguely remember you being a fan through his struggles past couple years
Keith Law: Not a fan at all – thought he’d be excessively homer-prone, and he was. This year looks like a stone fluke – his FIP is over 4 and that’s even with a lower than normal HR/9.

JR: Is it time for Lauren Mayberry to thank the other members of Chvrches for the memories and great times and head out on her own? The new record is blah. Feel like she’s peaked with them and it’s time for her to go solo.
Keith Law: I completely agree on this. She has untapped upside. This album is kind of embarrassingly bad – not just blah, but a big step down in lyrical and musical quality.

Ian: So, is Junot Diaz now canceled?
Keith Law: Apparently so.

Ted: I know it’s early but Micker Adolfo off to a great start. He isn’t typically discussed as a top WS prospect but is he making a leap?
Keith Law: I’ve talked him up in their org reports for at least two years – enormous physical tools, but could barely play the sport when he signed. (That’s not an exaggeration.) He might not be a solid big leaguer till he’s 25 but the upside is really huge.

Jeremy: At the same time that Alonso is killing it, has Dom Smith’s stock fallen?
Keith Law: No, but he’s also not helping anyone, himself included, back in triple-A.

Adam: As the young talent on the Padres collectively struggle at the major league level, how many more years does Andy Green get before his seat starts getting warm?
Keith Law: That roster doesn’t have much of that system’s young talent at all.

Joe: What are your thoughts on Sean Reid-Foley?
Keith Law: Saw him two weeks ago. 92-95, but hitters seemed to be on it. Slider was often plus, but it merged with his curveball at lower velocities. Didn’t see a changeup. Off one look, I’d say he needs some third pitch to start – something for lefties, and just to keep righties from sitting on the fastball.

Gil: We can live with a persistent high K rate for Moncada with these types of slugging and wRC+ numbers, right? He seems to be coming into his own.
Keith Law: He has a .414 BABIP. Sure, you could live with that, but has any hitter in history sustained it?

Andy: Re Ghost: They seem to be dropping more of the Satanic things, and just going with a kind of Medieval theme. Also, they are no longer putting as much on the anonymity as Tobias Forge has done interviews out of character about the “band.”
Keith Law: Which is so much better. This is good, fun, throwback metal. Let that speak for itself. The black-metal stuff is at best tired, at worst really offensive (given the church burnings and ties to anti-semitism/xenophobic movements).

Rick: Mets have fallen back to earth. Adrian Gonzalez is still getting at bats. Nimmo can’t get at bats. Is it Callaway or Alderson?
Keith Law: Alderson has the hammer on that.

Dave: Keith, starting see a lot of connections between the A’s and Swaggerty, including your mock draft. Is this more a case of the A’s liking Swaggerty in particular, or the A’s liking a college bat and Swaggerty seems the most likey to fall to #9?
Keith Law: Good college bat who was previously projected to go much higher. There’s a value play in that.

Dave: Keith, do you think Joey Bart can be a middle of the order bat in the majors?
Keith Law: Yes, but in the 4-5-6 sense, not a 2 hitter. High power, low average guy.

Don: Better lawyer, Lionel Hutz or Rudy Giuliani?
Keith Law: Rudy Giuliani is such a bad lawyer, he would have lost a false advertising suit against The Neverending Story.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – got some life stuff to catch up on before the school day ends. Thank you all for your questions this week and for reading. I expect to be back next Thursday for another chat. Enjoy your weekends and #fyeahbaseball!

Music update, April 2018.

This month’s playlist is a little shorter than the last few because I’ve been traveling so much the last few weeks, but that should slow down now as we approach the draft, so I’ll get to spend more time hunting down new tracks. I’ve also broken with tradition and opened this month’s playlist with a metal track, although after that it’s back to normal, with two more metal tracks at the end. As always, you can access the Spotify playlist directly here if you can’t see the widget below.

Ghost — Rats. Ghost’s marketing shtick is that they’re a black metal band from Norway (of course) and no one knows the band members’ identities. The black metal stuff is stupid, the identity thing is tired, but they have turned out to be a rather adept creator of new heavy metal tracks that sound very much like peak New Wave of British Heavy Metal artists like Iron Maiden or Judas Priest. Some of their songs have gone too far with the Satanic theme – which feels to me like patronizing the audience – but this one is just a straight-up rocker.

DMA’s — Break Me. The Aussie band’s early Britpop vibe, still more Oasis than Blur, continues throughout their new album For Now.

Hatchie — Sugar & Spice. The first of two songs from this Australian singer/songwriter/multi-instrumentalist on this playlist, although both of them have the same early Cranberries-meet-shoegaze vibe. Harriette Pilbeam doesn’t have Dolores O’Riordan’s pipes but she has the late Irish band’s sense of melody.

Ring the Bells — Johnnyswim with Drew Holcomb & the Neighbors. Johnnyswim is a folk duo from Nashville comprising Donna Summer’s daughter Amanda Sudano and Sudano’s husband Abner Ramirez. I freely admit I’d never heard them before this song, which is a sort of folk-rock banger, if there is such a thing.

Cœur de Pirate — Somnambule. I just adore Béatrice Martin’s voice, so I’m going to tell people she’s my girlfriend, and when they ask why she isn’t here with me, I can truthfully tell them, “She lives in Canada.”

Janelle Monáe featuring Grimes — Pynk. I’m still unpacking Dirty Computer, Monáe’s new album; so much of her music seems to demand repeated listens to pick up all her ideas. This isn’t as good as “Venus Fly,” the collaboration between these two women on Grimes’ Art Angels, but it’s a totally different kind of song, and there’s a lot of very suggestive wordplay here that wasn’t there on the Grimes-led track.

Hundred Waters — Mushroom Cloud. This spare, devastating new single from the Gainesville, Florida trio comes amidst rumors that the band might be breaking up, but it finds singer Nicole Miglis at her soaring, commanding best.

Snail Mail — Heat Wave. The second solid single from the Baltimore singer/guitarist starts slow, literally and figuratively, but wait for the guitar to come in before you pass judgment.

Wooden Shjips — Red Line. This San Francisco band, who always sound like they’re midway through a set at Altamont, just released this lead single from their forthcoming album V, their first new music in five years. All hail the Hammond organ.

Courtney Barnett — City Looks Pretty. I’m on record as preferring Barnett’s material when she picks up the tempo; her lyrics are always strong, but because her vocal style is kind of flat and talky by design, it doesn’t meld well with slower tracks. This one moves at a quick enough pace to work with her laconic singing.

Gang of Four — Ivanka (Things You Can’t Have). Gang of Four have always been political, but this has to be their most direct attack on a target in … ever? Of course, Go4 aren’t what they used to be, in a literal sense: guitarist and primary songwriter Andy Gill is the only one of the original Gang still in the band, and their sound is a lot more modern and less post-punk than it once was. It does still work, though, and Gill’s righteous anger is well-placed on this EP, titled Complicit.

Soft Science — Undone. This Sacramento outfit calls itself a dream-pop/shoegaze act, so it’s not surprising that this song’s main riff is at least similar to My Bloody Valentine’s “I Only Said,” from Loveless, long considered one of the seminal records of the shoegaze movement. At least here I can understand what the singer is saying, though.

Hatchie — Sleep. Pilbeam’s accent comes through a bit more here, but what really draws me to this track is the staccato, off-beat percussion.

Kid Astray — Are You Here? I wonder if this Norwegian outfit is just too weird to get much airplay here, but it’s a shame – they continue to churn out great hooks and there really isn’t anyone else who sounds like them at all. This five-minute track seems to keep folding in on itself and back out again into new shapes, like a musical hexaflexagon.

Speedy Ortiz — Buck Me Off. The lead track from the group’s third album, Twerp Verse, which I can say off one listen so far is really damn good.

Lord Huron — Never Ever. Huron’s new album, Vide Noir, feels like a big step forward, as they were caught in purgatory between folk-lite bands like Mumford & Sons and the rock mainstream, where bands like the Avett Brothers draw on folk but aren’t afraid to air it out a little. This record definitely airs it out, as on this track and on the two-part “Ancient Names.”

Johnny Marr — The Tracers. While Moz continues to milkshake duck himself with racist and bigoted commentary, Johnny Marr keeps making guitar-driven alternative rock, less charming than Smiths material but still bringing the hooks.

Lizzy Borden — My Midnight Things. File this one under “I had no idea this band was still recording and has been for the last thirty years.” I know Lizzy Borden (the band) from its occasional appearances on MTV’s Headbanger’s Ball, which was always a little light on the head banging and heavy on the hair metal. The original singer, who has always gone by the name Lizzy Borden, and drummer are still in the band, and I don’t think their sound has changed that much from what I remember of their 1980s output. This wouldn’t be out of place on a reboot of the aforementioned TV show.

Khemmis — Isolation. Desolation, the third album from this Colorado heavy metal outfit, arrives June 22nd; they have elements of doom, but this track is positively uptempo for that genre, and I appreciate the totally clean vocals in a space that generally looks down on guys who can actually sing.

League of Starz ft. Freddy Gibbs, G Perico, & Mozzy — Colors. A collaborative rap track dominated by Gibbs’ verse, as he’s one of the few MCs today whose style and technical skill rival the stars of the Golden Age of Hip-Hop.