Klawchat 4/5/18.

My piece on the most prospect-laden rosters in the minors is now up for Insiders.

Keith Law: Taking the fun out of everything … it’s Klawchat.

Brian (Buffalo): Have you been enjoying the Tupac/Biggie show on USA?
Keith Law: Very much so, although I fell behind with some recent travel. Hoping to catch up over the weekend/early next week.

Alex: really enjoyed Hillside Spot and Citizens Public House from your spring training guide. Thanks!
Keith Law: Two of my standbys.

David (NY): What do you think of your Athletic Subscription?
Keith Law: I don’t understand the question here. I have a subscription and have read a few pieces.

JR: I know the season is long and guys need days off, but should I be at all worried that Reyes is starting at SS in place of Rosario for the second time in six games? Is Mickey the new Terry?
Keith Law: Totally bizarre. This stuff bothers me way more than Nick Williams playing too shallow last night, which is what gets all the press (because it’s visible … not playing Rosario is an invisible error).

Peter: I know you’ve mentioned that Mackenzie Gore might be the best pitching prospect in baseball right now. Is he significantly better than guys like Whitley or Buehler? Or are we talking about razor thin margins?
Keith Law: He’s a lot better. Everything has ticked up for him, and his slider has gone from a barely used pitch to a potential swing and miss option.

Mark: Are you concerned at all about Kyle Tucker’s high IFFB rates?
Keith Law: No. That’s an awfully minute thing to worry about – especially since coding of balls in play in the minors still isn’t that reliable.

Peter: Who do you think is a more productive player offensively at their peak, Schoop or Kingery?
Keith Law: I love both guys but I’d nod to Kingery here.

Jr: Am I the only one that thinks Icarus was made by the CIA? So many coincidences for that thing to come together the way it did.
Keith Law: I really don’t engage in that kind of conspiracy-thinking.

Jason: Is the brewers rotation as bad as it has shown so far? Should they move Josh Hader to the rotation?
Keith Law: Hader’s not the answer. I’ve always thought he had a reliever profile due to the delivery & arm slot. They probably needed to address the rotation with external options but didn’t, even when the price fell on a guy like Lynn.

Foyle: Have you ever internally grappled with the moral legitimacy of eating meat? I don’t ask that to be glib or with an agenda, but instead have genuine curiosity for the thoughts of someone as contemplative as you.
Keith Law: No. We evolved to what we are now because we ate meat. I think the better argument than a vague moral one is an environmental one: The way we raise meat is terrible for the planet, and makes meat cheap enough that people consume more than they need nutritionally and waste more of it than is conscionable.
Keith Law: is that a word?

Adam: Is there anything to be excited about with Preston Tucker? Is he something now that hes healthy?
Keith Law: No.

Jr: I’ve heard people say Quantrill’s stock is down with his velocity. Do you agree with that assessment?
Keith Law: You’ve heard me say that.

Dustin: Have you heard anything recently about Indians’ Shane Beiber? Doesn’t look like he pitched at all this spring and can’t find any news online, seems a bit surprising.
Keith Law: He’s starting tonight for Akron, according to the Rubber Ducks’ official site.

WarBiscuit: With Taylor Ward moving to 3B, the Angels have picked two catchers in the first round to move off that position. Maybe they thought Ward would stick at C, but never understood the Thaiss pick if they would move him to 1B immediately, considering his power and defense questions.
Keith Law: They did think Ward would stick at catcher, although my understanding at the time was that the limited data available said he probably wouldn’t, and my own look at him said he probably wouldn’t either (had the arm, not the glove). Thaiss is a bit more confusing, yes; he never projected to the power for 1b.

Beth: Who’s your top HS pitcher right now?
Keith Law: I’m almost afraid to give you a name because they all seem to get hurt. It’s probably Carter Stewart at the moment over Grayson Rodriguez or Cole Winn (lower upside, way more polished). Ethan Hankins is back but I’m told he hasn’t been top-of-draft good since he returned. Liberatore has been fine, not up to 97 like he was in his first outing, but I think he’s still top 15 picks good. Matt Vasel’s season just started – he’s a cold weather name to watch.

Eric: What do you think Kopech will do this year once he gets called up?
Keith Law: Miss a lot of bats, walk maybe 10-12% of batters. Very high on him long term but don’t be shocked if he needs 40-50 starts in the majors before he becomes an above-average starter.

chuck: What do you make of the Almonte for Almonte trade? Seems odd KC would dump their Almonte for the 28 year old OF Almonte
Keith Law: I love Miguel Almonte as a swingman type – spot starter, longer relief outings, will show you three potentially above-average weapons, has had trouble with a starter’s workload.

Jesse B: Thoughts on Jahmai Jones moving to 2B. If it works, does this significantly increase his value?
Keith Law: It does, since he wasn’t staying in CF in that organization with Marsh right behind him.

Stephanie: Thoughts in Amed Rosario batting so low in the order? Think he gets a chance at 10hr/25sb this year?
Keith Law: This bothers me less; nothing really wrong with starting a young player lower in the lineup and moving him up as his performance warrants it. Those seem like reasonable milestones for him. He’s got more power than his brief stint last year would indicate.

Jeff: What should I be most excited about from Ohtani’s first week? So far I think it’s that even if he doesn’t make a lot of contact at least the power is there.
Keith Law: Power was definitely there, but he’s not going to get a lot of fastballs out over the plate like yesterday. I’m way more pleased to see his velocity so strong and command/control better than what I saw a month ago.

Adam: Thoughts on Folty’s new delivery?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen this yet.

Nelson: Keith, I hate your music taste, I dont play board games and I have no interest in High school baseball players. But your book recommendations are so amazingly on point its like youre talking directly to me. Thanks!
Keith Law: I’ll take it. I’m sure the number of people who follow my tastes in all areas and are prospect-crazy is pretty small.

Deke: My wife and I had twin sons just under six months ago. One of them goes for his third open-heart surgery in a week and a half. (Hopefully his last!) I just want to offer up an #fyeahbaseball for providing a much-needed distraction now that it’s back.
Keith Law: Deke: Sorry to hear that. I hope the surgery goes well.

Dave: I know you’ve always been one of the high guys on Jordan Hicks, do you think Cards try him in the rotation at all this year?
Keith Law: Probably, although I’m not sure he has the consistency in his delivery yet to help them in that role. Huge upside, kind of a ways off from it.

Bruce: Do you ever go to games in the NECBL (New England Collegiate Baseball League)?
Keith Law: Not in a long time. It’s way below the Cape.

Endy Chavez: Do you have MoviePass? Seems like something you’d be interested in
Keith Law: I do – I did, and it expired, and for some reason I had to sign up anew, but yes, I got my money’s worth (well, Chris Crawford’s money, since he bought me the first one).

Arin, d-town ca: What are the Rockies doing with McMahon? Why have him on their roster if he is only going to pitch hit and get 1 at bat a game?
Keith Law: You can add that to the list of things the Rockies are doing that I don’t understand, below giving a 32-year-old position player a six-year deal.

Beth: Is Casey Mize going 1?
Keith Law: I think he would, today, if his medicals are OK. There is a rumor running around that he’s got an elbow issue, but I don’t really see how anyone could know that since he hasn’t sent medicals to teams yet and the MLB top 200 MRI deal hasn’t happened yet, so if you see people talking about his elbow, bear in mind that it’s not really possible to source that, and it’s either pure speculation or someone trying to talk Mize down.

Jesse: You often say to ignore spring stats. Regarding Ohtani, is this a case of SSS for both the spring and now regular season, or was his poor spring a giant overreaction?
Keith Law: His stuff was down in the spring, and that’s not something we should just ignore … but it also was wrong to overreact like a lot of media members did (and some scouts, too, I think). I saw him pitch poorly, and still picked him for AL ROY. The long view isn’t that hard to take.

Josh in DC: Even though we’re only six games into the season, Alex Cora rotated through a lot of regulars so far. What’s your feeling about the merits of that style of managing?
Keith Law: I am fine with it, especially with the weather so cold in the northeast.

Harry Reins: The Orioles are putting Harvey on a 3 inning per start restriction in Bowie with an eye to bringing him onto the MLB club later in the year. Am I the only one who thinks this is a bad idea? What are the dangers of rushing a guy like that?
Keith Law: He’s 23, so while he’s barely pitched in pro ball, I can’t call this “rushing” a guy at that age who’s already on the 40 man. My concern would be if they bring him up and try to use him as a one-inning reliever, which means a lot of back-to-back work, which probably isn’t conducive to keeping him healthy.

PJ in JC: Arquimedes Gamboa. A guy or a GUY? You mentioned him in your Clearwater preview today but he wasn’t in your Phillies roundup.
Keith Law: Just a guy who’s notable for his big bonus. I saw him two weeks ago and he’d lost a lot of speed as he’s filled out.

Eric: Thoughts on Ohtani at the plate after a few games?
Keith Law: Same as before those few games. But it’s April 5th, so we are in Peak Overreaction Season.

Dave: Whatever happened to Karsten Whitson? bb ref just has a single season of milb in 2014.
Keith Law: Hurt. He might be the biggest “he should have taken the money” guy of the last decade. He ended up with about $2 million less as a result.

Jon: Hey Keith, my first time on the chat. Not sure if this is off-topic (or maybe you’ll already talked about this), but I’m curious as to your thoughts on Kapler and if you’re surprised at the fans’ reaction in Philly. Thanks!
Keith Law: I am going to break my own record for using the word “overreact” in some form. I think the knives are out for him because he’s smart, and because he’s doing different things. The one thing he’s done that I truly thought was a blunder was calling for a reliever who wasn’t warmed up.

Carl: It’s early, but as of now, in your opinion who has the highest ceiling for the Tigers to choose #1 overall?
Keith Law: Mize is clearly the best guy in the class. If it’s not him, for whatever reason, then the Tigers should probably identify 3-4 guys they rank at the top and see who’ll take the best deal so they can go over slot at their next pick (there are a lot of HS arms this year who’ll be perfect for that).

Jr: No thoughts for animal welfare with the eating meat question?
Keith Law: No.

Mark: Are you higher on Sheffield or Addams for the Yankees? Can either evolve into an ace in the future?
Keith Law: One was in my global top 20 this winter and one didn’t make my top 100 because I don’t see how he can start with his size and lack of FB plane.

Bruce: So the Reds are making Hunter Greene an SP only. Do you think this is the right call?
Keith Law: This isn’t news – I saw a reporter tweet it like this was breaking news, but this has been the case since he signed. He has, at best, a 40 future hit tool.

Nick: Not really a question. Just wanted to say that Dozier is a really good dude, and I hope that’s not lost in all this over a dumb comment.
Keith Law: I’m sure that’s the case – he could help matters by just saying, yeah, I spoke too soon, Sisco was fine, you play to win the game.

Ted Leon: If the whole paying players minimum wage was really a big deal to fans and media, then why is no one talking about it now? The fight is not lost. There are other ways to improve the lives of these guys.
Keith Law: There are indeed, but MLB has made it quite clear they will not do so unless forced to by law, by court, or by collective bargaining.

Greg P: How fast do you think the Jays will move Bichette up the ladder? A year at each level?
Keith Law: They haven’t done that yet – he played at two levels last year and I’d be shocked if he and Vlad were still in AA on August 1st.

Margot: Why can’t more players, top line pitchers especially, go straight from college to MLB? If you have dominant stuff why do you need a year in the minors?
Keith Law: Huge difference in caliber of competition between even the best college baseball (SEC/ACC) and the worst lineup in the majors.

Eric: Who has the better career: Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, or Luis Robert?
Keith Law: Eloy.

Mark: Is Justin Hooper someone that could have helium in the 2018 draft? I remember hearing a lot of hype around him in 2015 out of HS, but haven’t heard much about him leading into this year.
Keith Law: Had TJ, out for the year.

Benjamin: So mackenzie gore- potential 60 fb, cb, sl, ch, command??? That seems like ace potential yes??? I know aces are extremely rare but someone has to be??? Also is forrest whitley a 1 or 2?
Keith Law: I’ve never seen a teenaged lefty with what Gore has. (I saw all of one inning of Kershaw before he reached the majors.) It’s nuts.

Chad: You’ve mentioned Taylor Clarke as a potential contributor for the D-backs later this season. Would this be as a starter? Or in the bullpen? Also, I’m in a pizza club here in Phoenix (we try a new pizza restaurant 2 times a month) we love your recommendations!
Keith Law: Starter for me. Heard he had better stuff and command this spring from multiple scouts. You probably could give me better recs at this point!

Brandon: Braves are starting Max Fried at AA this year. Any idea why he’s not at least getting the starts in AAA over Wisler/Blair? Also, is he a rotation guy at this point?
Keith Law: I hate seeing Fried in AA – I think he’s among the top 5 starters in the system right now – but I believe this is a sort of final evaluation for guys like Wisler, Blair, Folty, Newcomb, Sims, after which the team will make some decisions on starter/reliever or even keep/trade (I think Wisler is out of options after this year).

Gretchen: Will I be able to watch Vlad Guerrero Jr this year on the Blue Jays before I move out of Toronto in September?
Keith Law: Might depend on when you move. I think he’ll get the call.

Mike P.: Schwarber’s new physique hasn’t seemed to improve his defense or baserunning; wouldn’t it behoove the Cubs to trade him for anything/BPA/etc. ?
Keith Law: They’ve probably missed his peak value but yes, I think trading him would be a good move, because they can’t maximize his value without the DH spot.

Hinkie: I know it’s early, but any word yet on what draft prospects the Phillies seem to be scouting the hardest/most frequent ?
Keith Law: It’s early. I’ve seen their guys at every game I’ve been to where there was a potential first-rounder on the field, including Mize, McClanahan, Singer/Kowar, etc. Gotta see them all.

Andres: Like me, did your heart skip a beat with the official announcement with the deets on the new Arctic Monkey’s album?
Keith Law: I missed this – May 11th!

Benny: Does Sheldon Neuse become a productive major leaguer?
Keith Law: Yes.

John: Seems to me Moncada has had a slow start for a #1 prospect. Is this just a learning curve or something more?
Keith Law: I think his swing is going to lead to a lot of swinging and missing – he loads deep with a bat-wrap and you can beat a guy like that inside. Still a lot of physical upside there, though.

Sara: What are your thoughts on the Blackmon deal? Any concern the fox committed to long to an aging outfielder without the option of making him a DH?
Keith Law: Mentioned above – I don’t get it, it’s counter to everything the industry has learned about how players age. Even if you don’t believe Coors is at all a factor in his career, it’s still a terrible gamble to think a player who’s an average defender in center now will still have this kind of value at age 35-37.

Justin R: Any plans on watching the Roseanne reboot?
Keith Law: Good lord no.

Levi: Any chance you make it to a yard goats game this season? It’ll be my first time tonight to see the NH kids
Keith Law: Probably this summer. I can see Vlad/Bo next week in Trenton.

Tristan: Do you see Scott Kingery displacing someone in the Phillies’ starting lineup this season, or getting his 450 ABs moving around all year?
Keith Law: From talking to them I think he’s going to move around most of the year, a lot of 2b and 3b, but that at some point there will be a spot for him – they’ll trade Cesar, or Franco will need to play less, or someone will get hurt.

Dr. Bob: Everyone needs to take a deep breath and repeat this: It’s just six games…it’s just six games…it’s just six games.
Keith Law: Every year. It has never changed in my 12 springs here.

Noah: Don’t know if you’re a Vaccines fan, but their new record is really good.
Keith Law: Last song by them I really liked was “Teenage Icon.”

JR: Started reading Clockers (per your recommendation). Feels like I’ve been moved back into the world of The Wire, and I love it.
Keith Law: Lush Life is even better. He creates such realistic intense worlds.

Trixie: Have you ever read a novel in one sitting?
Keith Law: Yep, on planes especially.

Jax : Were you surprised when Colorado re-signed CarGo & killed Tapia’s chance to start? Or did they get him back for cheap enough money for it to be worth it?
Keith Law: That’s also on the list. As well as three-year deals for relievers.

Justin R: How do you find so much time for reading, writing, cooking, etc? I’m trying to write a novel, but working 50 hours/week, family obligations, commuting makes it damn near impossible.
Keith Law: I probably don’t sleep enough, and I rarely do just one thing … if I’m cleaning up after cooking, I’m listening to a podcast or watching a show on the iPad. And I’m kind of writing in my head all the time.

Randy: In a previous chat you said that there’s a fair chance that Keibert Ruiz hit’s his way off catcher. What other position do you think he could play?
Keith Law: If he hits like I think he can hit, it wouldn’t matter.

Dane26: Does Akil Baddoo have the tools to be an above-average regular?
Keith Law: Absolutely.

Benjamin: Is a splitter like what casey mize and shohei throw more stressful on a pitchers arm??
Keith Law: This is a persistent belief without actual evidence to prove or disprove it. Mize throws a split-change, not a true splitter. Is that better, worse, irrelevant?

Aaron C.: Do you anticipate any pre-draft high school scouting trips to Southern California? Just curious as to any names out here to keep an eye on. Thanks!
Keith Law: No, I saw Turang and Winn last week and that’s it for SoCal preps this year. I’l be in Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and the mid-Atlantic the rest of the way, plus the ACC tourney, and, weather permitting, Lexington, KY, tomorrow.

Randy: I know ST stats don’t matter, but R. Armententeros struck out 24 in 16 innings and was up to 94 w/ what looked like a plus change. #3 starter upside?
Keith Law: I don’t believe he hit 94 or that he’d pitch with anything like that as a starter, but I do think he is a starter, maybe league-average ceiling.

John: Hunter Greene is starting out in A, which sounds about right. It did make me curious about A vs. A+; what is the tangible difference between the levels and would it really matter to a prospect like Greene?
Keith Law: He’s still just 18, all year, working on slider consistency and fastball command right now, with changeup development probably a secondary consideration at the moment. I don’t think he can just blow low-A guys away with velocity, and if that’s right, then he’s in the right spot.

Alex: I know you love cooking. I do too, and I’m trying to get my son (6 yrs) interested. Were there any cookbooks you found helped you with your daughter?
Keith Law: No – it’s been much more productive to just have her work alongside me, even if she never did much but flip a tortilla or ‘knead’ some dough. Being there, being involved, was what got her interested.

Patrick: Keith, in taking the fun out of everything…have you ever scouted a player not originally on your radar, but raves from people you know in the industry led you to?
Keith Law: I go where scout friends tell me to go.

Larry: When you come to the Midwest to see Kelenic are you going to swing by champagne to see Spillane ? It looks like those massive tools are finally starting to translate.
Keith Law: I forgot Kelenic – he’s barely out of the gym but almost certainly on my list. Spillane no.

Troy: Does Paul DeYoung have what it takes to be a middle of the order bat in the big leagues?
Keith Law: No, but I do think he’ll stay for good this time.

Patrick: Anything you can say to make me feel good about Corbin Burnes being assigned to CO Springs for AAA?
Keith Law: I feel like that front office doesn’t see Colorado Springs the way I do, or, I think, many coaches/execs do – a deleterious environment for developing pitching prospects.

Tracy: I also take a lot of value out of your book reviews and novels rankings. I lean toward reading more non-fiction books (actually, a lot) so I appreciate your efforts and it’s really broadened my horizons. Thanks. Also, Scott Pruitt is an even bigger slimebag than I had previously given him credit for.
Keith Law: I still need to write up David Grann’s latest book, which was incredible (especially the audio version, where Will Patton read the middle section and really set the mood and tone).

Bobbo: thanks as always for the chats. i was always under the impression that if a young pitcher has TJ, he misses about a year of time and then resumes baseball activities. today i read that Thomas Szapucki is out for the whole year (added to the half-year last season). is this the new typical? how do you see his near future playing out?
Keith Law: Rehab protocol is anywhere from 12 to 16 months if there’s no setback.

Jax : I think Ketel Marte could hit .275/.345/.420 this year. You taking the over or under on that? Or is it about right?
Keith Law: Eyeballing it, sure, I’d buy that.

Davis: At what point does Goodwin’s bat outweigh Taylor’s glove?
Keith Law: Probably right about when Robles steamrolls them both.

BPS: Matt Vasel?? Do you mean Mike Vasil?
Keith Law: Yeah, I’m sorry it was so hard for you to figure that out.

Dave: Keith, no question, but loads of thanks for the great book, the entertainment your chats have given me over the years, your talking and advice on depression and anxiety that have helped me with my own issues, and your food recommendations that have made me a rock star in my group of friends (Nashville in particular!). If you are ever in Baltimore, I run a restaurant in little italy and would love to offer you a great meal sometime
Keith Law: I’ll take you up on that at some point. And I’m very glad to have been able to help with your mental health issues. The stigma we still see around these extremely common medical problems is a huge reason why so many people still don’t get treatment, or don’t get enough treatment.
Keith Law: Well, that, and the disastrous state of health insurance in this country.

Adam: Sad to see Lindgren with another TJ Surgery……that slider was unhittable
Keith Law: Yeah, I wonder if he’s just done. That would be a huge shame.

John: How did you choose a literary agent? Or if that’s unique to your circumstances, any advice for an average Joe to find/pick one?
Keith Law: My literary agent, Eric Lupfer, was with my talent agency at the time, although he has since left for a boutique.

Chris: Is Clayton Kershaw’s drop in velocity (a) concerning, (b) something on which to keep an eye out, or (c) Jesus Christ it’s been 2 starts so calm down?
Keith Law: I could just use (c) for half the questions this week.

Chris: I have a question re: cooking. Most of the recipes (I use America’s Test Kitchen books/recipes) worth a salt call for fresh herbs and spices. You go to the grocery store to buy them, and the package enough to make 50 8-course meals. How do you store them? I waste an entire container of fresh thyme for one stupid sprig.
Keith Law: If possible, growing some is the best answer, especially thyme (grows like mad, lasts well into the winter, comes back most years) or sage (even hardier, never use enough). Otherwise, think of more ways to utilize them – just because a recipe doesn’t call for thyme doesn’t mean you can’t use it – and store out of the clamshell or bag, wrapped in a paper towel, in the crisper drawer. Except basil, which you have to use within a few days.

Jax : I still can’t figure out why Detroit would rather have Fiers & Liriano in their rotation instead of Norris. Is this an effort to try to establish some trade value for Fiers or Liriano?
Keith Law: Maybe a reaction to Norris losing a little velo this spring? I’m flummoxed too.

Bob: Hi Keith. How do you feel about Long Island? I’m from there as well, and I’ve never been a fan.
Keith Law: It’s long, and definitely an island, so it has those two things going for it.

Hinkie: When will your updated top 30 for the draft be out? Also, could you give me an early top three picks mock … 1 Tigers ______, 2 Giants _______, 3 Phillies _______.
Keith Law: I’ll do a new ranking later this month. I won’t even pretend to know what 1-2-3 will be right now.

Margot: I get that the caliber of competition is different. My point is that if you have three 60+ pitches why can’t you go right to the MLB. What does one year do?
Keith Law: It’s about much more than pure stuff. Command, control, facing much better hitters 3x, working with a staff, calling your own games (most college coaches call games themselves, which, to me, is the second shittiest thing about college baseball after pitcher overuse).

Jon: Frankie Montas is almost out of options do you see him as a RP or does he still have SP potential
Keith Law: I have never believed he could start. Poor command, bad body, knee issues at a young age. Big velocity, but that was kind of the whole package.

Mike B: I’m definitely not asking about results from a small two-start sample size, but at least Bundy is missing some bats and his “stuff” looks decent. Is there reason to hope he can be a decent starter IF he stays healthy?
Keith Law: Statcast had a lot of 90-92 in his last start. Was he throwing harder early in the game?

Bill: Brien Taylor, another teenaged left with some good stuff. But I suppose you were not scouting then.
Keith Law: No, he’s about 18 months older than I am.

Pat: Is Kelenic an option for Detroit at 1-1? If you had 1-1, would you take best player or one of 3-4 guys that will sign for the least?
Keith Law: I know he’s among the guys they have on their short (long?) list, and they had him in for a workout in Lakeland. But I think he’s played exactly one game this spring, so I don’t know how anyone could decide he’s 1-1 at this point (and I know you’re not saying that). I would do what I said above – if Mize checks out, he’s the best player and you take him, and if not, you shop the deal.

Tim McSwigginsonville: do you de-bone your chicken thighs before sous-vid’ing?
Keith Law: No. Afterwards the meat separates from the bone much more easily.

Seath: Were you pleased to see the twins started Rooker at AA? You think he could contribute to the big club this year?
Keith Law: I was – shows they get the issue around his age and also believe his new-ish swing is going to work at the lower levels. Don’t waste his time; if he’s going to be good, it will happen very soon.

Freddy: Every time I see Fried, his FB is straight as an arrow and gets crushed. Data even shows it doesn’t move much at all. Is this not a concern?
Keith Law: It’s his third best pitch. Plus to 70 CB, plus CH.

Nick: Why is being patriotic and proud of our country considered hate speech now? Can’t we acknowledge we have a great country and acknowledge there is room for improvement at the same time?
Keith Law: You can claim we have a great country, but saying we should “acknowledge” it implies that it is true and beyond dispute.

Sean: How do you decide which book to read next? I assume you have a long list to pick from. What are some you have lined up your most excited to read?
Keith Law: Lincoln the Bardo, Improvement, The Ministry of Utmost Happiness are all in the queue.

Jim: Just admit you eat animals because you’re a selfish coward.
Keith Law: I eat animals because it pisses off assholes like you.

mike sixel: Looking for a funny book, that isn’t SUPER long. Recommendations?
Keith Law: Anything by Wodehouse. Or how about Hugh Laurie’s The Gun Seller?

JJG: Do you have a favorite podcasts list somewhere?
Keith Law: No, but I’ve mentioned The Hidden Brain, Grierson & Leitch, Cinephile, The Inquiry, and have just gotten into the ten-episode series The Assassination, also from the BBC about the death of Benazir Bhutto.

PD: Watched the new episode of Legion? I rewatched season 1 and it works a lot better the second time through.
Keith Law: On the DVR.

Dr. Bob: This is what SSS does to you. STL’s Carlos Martinez has occasional mental lapses on the mound. He looked lost at times in ST, then had a really rough first game. The BFIB ™ are up in arms. Last night, he pitches brilliantly. Some guys are just going to take you on a ride. Hold on.
Keith Law: It’s almost like spring training is just practice.

Sam: Think Carson Fulmer gets it together and sticks as a solid SP? Seems his stuff is excellent but fastball command isn’t always there
Keith Law: Very straight FB too. Reliever for me.

Leith Kaw: When people discuss Moncada, do they realize he was top 3 in 2B DRS last year in just a third of a season? That defense alone, plus his walk/power combo, makes him a great player even with the strikeouts.
Keith Law: UZR had him below average last year. I think you’re cherrypicking, or just ignoring that these defensive metrics aren’t that reliable (predictive) in such a small sample. And I personally do not think he’s a great defender.

Gary: We loved Monteverde in Chicago. Wife and daughter are in NYC and looking for a non-pizza restaurant recommendation from you in the city.
Keith Law: Gosh, I go to NYC and I usually just want pizza. Narcissa is fantastic, very vegetable-focused, one of my favorite restaurants to hit and skip meat altogether.

Corey: back to your comment about “3 year deals for relievers” Kimbrel is a FA after this year. if you’re Boston do you give him a deal for longer than 3 yrs, do you give him a deal at all ?
Keith Law: No reason not to give him a deal, is there? No way I go four years on any reliever, ever. The history of those contracts is bad.

Sam: So you go on a scouting trip and see a player who excites you that wasn’t on your list to watch. You check and see that no one else has picked up on him either…who do you tell?
Keith Law: The odds of this happening are almost nil. I’m not seeing obscure guys.

Russell: What would your plan be with Profar if you were the Rangers?
Keith Law: I just wish he could play every day.

Larry: Can Jonathan India work his way into the first round?
Keith Law: Into the back, maybe. I think there’s some serious overreaction (!) right now to a hot few weeks. He was terrible last year as a sophomore for a potential high pick a year later, and I don’t think he has a lot of upside.

Trav: I read that as “shellfish coward”
Keith Law: I’m more afraid of red meat anyway. (I’ve stopped eating beef and haven’t had lamb in years.)

Franklin: Have you tried the “Impossible Burger?”
Keith Law: No – one of those appeared in my local Whole Foods briefly but was gone before I got to try it. I would, though. I’ll try just about anything once.

Nick: So you think America is trash? That says a lot about you, Keith.
Keith Law: You are really, really good at crafting strawman arguments.

Bort: Where are you at on Alex Bohm? Can he stay at third?
Keith Law: Maybe – has the arm, not a bad athlete, just BIG. Love the swing, definitely think he’s a top 20 pick on merit, even before we get to the inflation college hitters get on draft day.

Rick: Are you getting nervous about being the low man on Ohtani?
Keith Law: For saying he could be an ace and AL ROY?

Adam: Has Nunez always been such a bad defender? Watching him struggle with basic plays so far this year is brutal
Keith Law: Eduardo? Yes.

Jarrod: Not sure if this is what David (NY) was getting at, but now I’m curious… What do you think of the Athletic as a source for sports journalism (relative to other websites in this arena)?
Keith Law: They have so many writers that I couldn’t generalize. I’ve read some great stuff there, I’ve read some not great stuff. They’ve hired some of the best writers I know, and a couple of guys I wouldn’t read if you paid ME to do it. With that many people on staff, how could it be otherwise?

PhillyJake: I know you’ve posted it in the path, but please remind me why you don’t eat red meat anymore?
Keith Law: I have an inborn error of metabolism that affects my body’s ability to process the essential amino acid leucine. I do still eat pork, but not much, and get more protein now from vegetable sources than I ever did before, although when I’ve tried to give up more animal sources in the past, I’ve run into a lot of blood-sugar problems (also related to the genetic condition).

Alan: Is Bohm a top 5 guy? Seems to have some helium.
Keith Law: He could go there, but I think that’s too rich.

Alan: Swaggerty seemed to cooled off since a hot start. Still a top guy? Any concerns?
Keith Law: Needs to start hitting again, but if he does, he goes top 5. True CF, 65 runner, few if any college bats in the middle of the field this year. That’s going to run Joey Bart up the board, maybe to the top ten, because he’s a catcher and there are so few college catchers in this draft.

PJ: Blake Swihart … Cora suggested he could be a Marwin-type for Bost., but that’s not realistic, is it?
Keith Law: Why not? I think he can hit and play a bunch of positions.

Dr. Bob: If I invite you for dinner, I can work around no red meat. If someone else has a nut allergy, no problem. My son and his girlfriend are vegetarians; lots of cheese dishes. A vegan? We’re just going to have coffee or tea ’cause I got nothing.
Keith Law: Vegan is tough. Losing dairy is a real obstacle, although I have eaten vegan meals with cashew-milk products replacing dairy that were actually good, not just passable.

Teeb: Thoughts on the Pompeys: Does Dalton ever become a guy and where’s Tristan getting picked?
Keith Law: Tristan somewhere in the 20-40 range. Dalton, ship might have sailed there.

Jim: **** you, Keith.
Keith Law: Aw, Jimbo’s mad. Came to my chat, called me a “selfish coward,” and is surprised I clapped back. Tough. You have every right to insult me, but that doesn’t mean I have to take it.

JR: After review, Conforto hit a 2R HR. Terry even more pissed.
Keith Law: You know who must be even happier that Terry the Terrible is gone? Plawecki. Terry told the media Plawecki couldn’t hit. Now he’s getting a chance to play and doesn’t have to worry that his manager thinks he sucks.

John: Somebody tell Jim when the Self Righteous Vegetarian chat is.
Keith Law: There are good arguments for vegetarianism, from the environment to physical health to concerns about how animals raised for mass-produced meat are treated. I’m happy to hear & discuss those. I think that humanity as a whole needs to cut its meat consumption – and that climate change & limited water resources will force us to do so at some point. Reducing consumption & waste, and perhaps enforcing tougher standards for meat production – not under this administration, unfortunately – those are reasonable goals.

Rich Campbell: Real time news: Trayce Thompson joining A’s in Anaheim. Is he a fourth OF? Or more?
Keith Law: Fourth OF. Can really defend, can crush a mistake.

Jack: Can you use frozen fish to make ceviche?
Keith Law: I’ve never made ceviche. I leave raw fish preparations to the professionals. They can source better than I can. (Also, I would not recommend using frozen fish.)

Mucho Maas: Thoughts on Reynaldo Lopez and his new velo/slider?
Keith Law: Lopez’s new velo? Dude was 95-100 in the minors.

Colin: Preston Tucker or Nick Markakis?
Keith Law: Ronald Acuna.
Keith Law: OK, went long this week since I may be traveling next Thursday. Thank you all – except you, Jim, you’re not very nice – for all of your questions and for reading. I’ll be out and about a lot this month so I hope to see many of you at minor league or amateur games – feel free to say hi, and I’ll be happy to sign any copies of Smart Baseball if you happen to have one with you.

New music update, March 2018.

Twenty-seven songs on this month’s playlist, which is a lot, but they’re almost all from artists I’ve listed somewhere here before. As always, you can access the Spotify playlist here if you can’t see the widget below.

Everything Everything – Breadwinner. This is one of four tracks on the British art-rockers’ recent EP, A Deeper Sea, one left on the cutting room floor from their 2017 album A Fever Dream. The EP opens with “The Mariana,” a slow, melancholy meditation on societal ideas of masculinity and the high suicide rates for young males.

DMA’S – For Now. Huge, soaring guitars, mixing electric and acoustic, with a memorable hook in the chorus … yeah, I’m all in. Take all my money.

Post Animal – Ralphie. A fun, bouncy rock track from a new band from Chicago that includes one of the actors from Stranger Things, Joe Keery.

Gang Of Four – Lucky. Gang of Four have always been overtly political, but their forthcoming EP, Complicit, is about as direct an attack as they’ve ever brought on a sitting politician. The EP’s cover is a photo of Ivanka Trump, and the EP’s title is repeated in Russian.

Sunflower Bean – Oh No, Bye Bye. The Brooklyn trio released their second album, Twentytwo in Blue, last week, and it’s filled with sunny, folk-tinged indie rock and great melodies; it feels to me like the album a band makes before they release the album that takes over the world.

The Men – Rose on Top of the World. This is very acoustic War on Drugs-ish, kind of surprising given The Men’s history of harder, punk-tinged songs.

Ride – Keep It Surreal. The second track from the shoegazers’ new EP, Tomorrow’s Shore, which also includes “Pulsar.”

Courtney Barnett – Need A Little Time. The second single in advance of the Australian singer/songwriter’s second solo album Tell Me How You Really Feel.

??????•?)?? ?? ??????? ?? – ? ? ? ?.·??? ? ? ? ? ?.·??? ? ? ? ? ?.·??? ? ? ? ? ?.·??? ? ? ? ? ?.·??? ? ? ? ? ?.·??? ? ? ? ? ?.·??? ?. That’s not a problem with your browser; it’s the actual name of the new project by Four Tet, a very dark, moody, instrumental track that was good enough to get me to copy and paste this ridiculous name, which is pronounced “I’m an asshole.”

The Decemberists – Once In My Life. Never a huge fan of the Decemberists, in part because Colin Meloy’s delivery always teeters on the brink of twee-pop, but it’s weird that they paired one of their best melodies ever with some of their weakest lyrics (a pale imitation of “Please Please Please Let Me Get What I Want”).

Preoccupations – Disarray. This Canadian band’s latest album, cleverly titled New Material, came out on March 23rd; their sound, from reverbed guitars to production that dampens the vocals, gives everything they do a gloomy tinge while harkening back to everyone from Joy Division to Lotion to Mercury Rev. “Decompose” is another great track from the album, with an offbeat percussion line that keeps you off balance for the entire song.

Speedy Ortiz – Lean In When I Suffer. The noise-pop quartet led by Sadie Dupuis will release its third album, Twerp Verse, on April 27th.

Prides – Say It Again. These Scottish pop-rockers first showed up on my radar with 2015’s “The Seeds You Sow,” but they haven’t quite hit that level of hook in anything since … until this song, definitely my favorite track since that debut. Their better songs have reminded me of better Bastille stuff with a little early Coldplay (before they became just pop nonsense).

Artificial Pleasure – On a Saturday Night. It’s a bit slower than their first hit “I’ll Make It Worth Your While” or the track that made my top 100 from last year, “Wound Up Tight,” but I like the glam-rock stylings here even as they get away from the dance floor, with a song that sounds inspired by ’70s new wave (or even Bowie, apparently a hero of theirs) without coming off as derivative.

Young Fathers – Fee Fi. The 2014 Mercury Prize winners released their third album, Cocoa Sugar, on March 9th; as with their previous two, their tracks feature a lot of world-music percussion with less rapping than is typical of that genre.

Snail Mail – Pristine. Snail Mail is Lindsey Jordan, a Baltimorebased singer-songwriter, and her sound is sparse and also reminds me of Lotion – really, I don’t think I’ve mentioned that group in years, now they’re here twice in one playlist – whose voice and sound is way beyond her 18 years. She should tour with Speedy Ortiz.

Belly – Stars Align. That little opening guitar riff feels like a secret message to Belly fans from the ’90s that everything’s OK, Tanya’s here, although what comes after doesn’t have the same energy as King or Star, and I get the sense that Dove, their first album in 23 years, will be Belly-ish, but mellower.

The Districts – Nighttime Girls. The Districts feel like a mixture of Preoccupations (see above) and the Hold Steady, with the former’s general sound and style (including echoing vocals) with the dry delivery of the latter.

The Horrors – Fire Escape. The Horrors’ new single includes this song and “Water Drop,” with one of the keyboard loops repeated throughout both songs; this track has more of an identity, like an actual single rather than a B-side or deleted scene. I love the heavy guitar/drum break around the 1:10 mark that introduces the vocals.

Starcrawler – Different Angles. This LA glam-rock act released its debut album, produced by Ryan Adams, in January, with a good sound but not enough good hooks to sustain a full record. This was my favorite track, which, like most on the album, comes in well under three minutes.

Turbowolf – Cheap Magic. I wasn’t familiar with this Bristol psychedelic hard-rock act before a few months ago, but this is the second great, heavy rock track from them (think INHEAVEN) in the last 90 days, this one a collaboration with Death from Above’s Sebastien Grainger.

Underoath – Rapture. Underoath is, or perhaps was, a Christian hard-rock band, although it seems like their faith or stance on it is at least no longer the core feature of their music. This would have been considered metal when I was in high school, somewhere between glam rock and thrash (death metal existed, but had almost no audience or mainstream awareness at the time), and earned some nostalgia points with me.

Bicurious – Sleep. Bicurious describe themselves on their Bandcamp page as “a confused, loud, instrumental and experimental duo based in Dublin.” There’s some jazz in here, a little heavy rock, and what sounds like a good bit of two-hand tapping (or maybe even a Chapman stick?). It’s not boring, though.

Melvins – Stop Moving to Florida. King Buzzo is back – although I think I’m nominating him for “aging rocker most likely to go milkshake duck” – with a song that gives you two minutes of conventional grunge and then turns into abject silliness for the rest of its run time.

At The Gates – To Drink from the Night Itself. Pioneers of the Gothenberg sound, At the Gates will release an album with this as the title track in May, their first record without founding guitarist Anders Björler.

Memoriam – Weaponised Fear. I’m pretty sure Memoriam was supposed to be a one-off project, a tribute to the late drummer Martin Kearns, who played in the legendary British extreme metal act Bolt Thrower along with two members of Memoriam. They’re back now with a new album, The Silent Vigil, that continues the first album’s doom-influenced thrash with more growled vocals, not too far away from the sound on Bolt Thrower’s final studio album, Those Once Loyal.

Barren Earth – Further Down. Barren Earth is a Finnish supergroup that features Kreator guitarist Sami Yli-Sirniö, producing progressive death metal that incorporates symphonic, technical, and even folk elements.

Ranking 2017 movies.

So I finally saw Loveless, the one film I thought I had to see before I could put together a ranking of all the 2017 films I saw, which can also serve as an index of my reviews. I still have a few I’m waiting to see in theaters or on demand, including The Insult, Foxtrot, In the Fade, The Other Side of Hope, and Mary and the Witch’s Flower, which I’ll add to this post when I see & review them. I have seen all nine Academy Award for Best Picture nominees, all five Best Animated Feature nominees, all five Best Documentary Feature nominees, and four of the five Best Foreign Language Film nominees. All links go to my reviews on this site; there are a few animated films I never bothered to review near the bottom.

1. The Florida Project.
2. Dunkirk.
3. Loveless.
4. A Fantastic Woman.
5. The Shape of Water.
6. Columbus.
7. Phantom Thread.
8. The Big Sick.
9. Call Me By Your Name.
10. Get Out
11. Logan Lucky.
12. The Girl Without Hands.
13. Lady Bird.
14. On Body and Soul.
15. City of Ghosts.
16. The Sense of an Ending.
17. Coco.
18. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
19. In This Corner of the World.
20. A Ghost Story.
21. The Wound.
22. Icarus.
23. The Breadwinner.
24. Faces Places.
25. I, Tonya.
26. Graduation.
27. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail.
28. Star Wars: The Last Jedi.
29. Dealt.
30. Marjorie Prime.
31. Ethel & Ernest.
32. Our Souls at Night.
33. Last Men in Aleppo.
34. The Square.
35. I Don’t Feel at Home in This World Anymore.
36. The Beguiled.
37. The Lego Batman Movie.
38. The Post.
39. Loving Vincent.
40. Darkest Hour.
41. War Machine.
42. In Search of Israeli Cuisine.
43. Good Time.
44. The Lost City of Z.
45. Ferdinand.
46. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children.
47. Strong Island.
48. Baby Driver.
49. My Entire High School Sinking into the Sea.
50. Boss Baby.

The Wound.

The Oscars’ process for determining nominees for the Best Foreign Language Film is a little strange, and I don’t think it’s very widely understood – I only came across it within the last few years because I decided to see as many of the nominated films as I could. Any country can submit one film released in its market between October 1st and the following September 30th (so twelve months) in the year leading up to the awards; for the 2017 Academy Awards, a record 92 countries submitted films. The rules mean that a country with a long history of producing critically-acclaimed films, like France, or a country with a huge population and a large native film industry, like India, gets to submit the same number of films as Iceland, which was the smallest country (by population, 348,000) to submit a film this year. Last year, the South Korean film The Handmaiden, among the most critically acclaimed movies of the year, wasn’t even its own country’s nominee. This year, Loveless nearly lost out on a nomination because of political objections to its content.

The Academy changed their process about a decade ago to release a shortlist of nine films before they announce the final list of five nominees, which gives another little boost of publicity to four more films that would otherwise be shut out. This year’s shortlist included Félicité, the first-ever submission by Senegal; In the Fade, from Germany, which won the Golden Globe in the same category; Foxtrot, from Israel, which is just getting a U.S. theatrical release now; and The Wound, from South Africa, which is available now on Netflix. With dialogue primarily in the Bantu language Xhosa, with occasional Afrikaans and English, this 88-minute film feels like a thematic cousin to Moonlight, looking at a closeted gay man in South Africa as he tries to hide his identity from a traditional culture that sees homosexuals as less than men.

Based on a 2009 novel by the South African author Thando Mgqolozana, The Wound tells the story of Xolani, known to his friends as X, a quiet, lonely worker in a South African warehouse who is asked by a family friend to come serve as the ‘caregiver’ to the man’s son in the amaXhosa circumcision ritual known as ulwaluko, which marks the passage of young men, called initiates, into full manhood. The ritual takes place over several weeks on ‘the mountain,’ where X meets his old friend and secret paramour Vija, who has a wife and family at home. X’s charge, Kwanda, is seen as ‘soft’ (I think that’s code for gay) and pampered both by his father and by the other initiates, who also suspect that he’s gay, but while he’s not ‘out’ in the western sense, he’s certainly less willing to wear the mask that X does and fights back against the bullying of the other boys. Kwanda quickly grasps what X and Vija are up to, and that X is far more emotionally invested in the relationship than Vija is, eventually pushing X in a student-teaches-the-teacher twist to demand more for himself, if not with Vija then with someone else. The wound of the film’s title refers, of course, to the wounds of circumcision – treated in ghoulish fashion with traditional ‘herbs’ and techniques rather than modern medicine – and what X presumably has carried inside him his entire life as a gay amaXhosa man whose family and culture would view him as a degenerate and less than a man if they knew his orientation.

The South African film ratings board caved to public pressure and gave the film an X18 rating, akin to labeling it pornography, even though there’s nothing explicit in the film and any sex scenes are shown either in silhouette or at a distance. This only reinforces the story’s point, that the tyranny of these traditions actually serves to dehumanize men who are born gay into a world that won’t accept them. Kwanda has a dryly humorous rant towards the end of the film about how the ritual just shows how men are obsessed with their own genitalia – not long after one of the other initiates is showing off his “Mercedes-Benz” circumcision, which, fortunately, is not pictured – and serves as a sly, figurative criticism of the importance placed on a traditional ceremony focused on one physical manifestation of manhood that tells us nothing about the man within.

Raleigh and Durham eats, 2018 edition.

Downtown Raleigh has seen a huge renaissance over the last few years, especially in the area where Ashley Christensen’s main restaurants are. Now just one block over on Blount Street are two of the best new restaurants in the Triangle, according to Eater, in Mofu Shoppe and Bharvana Brewery.

Mofu Shoppe grew out of the Pho Nomenal Dumplings food truck whose owners won season 6 of something called the Great Food Truck Race and invested their winnings in their first brick and mortar location, with their signature pork and chive dumplings on the menu. I went with small plates so I could try more things at every place I tried for dinner this week, which here included those dumplings, crispy Brussels sprouts with sweet sriracha sauce and bacon, and the pork belly rice bowl. The dumplings are superb, pleasantly chewy, with the right amount of filling and very even flavors of chive and garlic. The Brussels sprouts were my favorite, even though they’re about a grade spicier than I would typically eat; the bacon lardons are thickly sliced and stand up to the sprouts well, but I didn’t care for the crème fraîche served underneath, which was too tangy, like sour cream. The pork belly rice bowl is a great concept, although I ended up liking it less than I expected. The idea seems to be to take the flavors of German potato salad and put them into a dish similar to bibimbap, so you get rice, a poached egg, pork belly, and a slaw with a mustardy vinaigrette. The dressing on the slaw overwhelmed the other flavors in the dish, unfortunately. For dessert, I went with the Vietnamese coffee mousse, which is just what it sounds like; imagine the texture of softly whipped cream and the flavor of good coffee ice cream.

Just across the street is Bhavana Brewery, a combination brewery, restaurant, book store, and flower/home decor store. (That’s not an April Fool’s Day joke.) The owners also run a Laotian restaurant next door and this menu is heavily East Asian-influenced, although it doesn’t adhere to any particular tradition from that continent. Again going with small plates, I took my server’s suggestions and ordered the steamed soup dumplings (xiao long bao), the vegetable gyoza, the seafood dumplings in mushroom sauce, and the duck egg rolls (that was my one pick among the four). The soup dumplings were the best dish, filled with a mixture of crab and pork meat, with a good balance of broth, meat, and dough, with the crab balancing out what could have been a fairly heavy filling had it been only pork. The vegetable dumplings were my least favorite, with a grassy note and a flat flavor that needed some heat and probably more salt/umami to boost it. The server did recommend the scallion pancake with bone marrow, but that sounded way too heavy for me. They do indeed brew their own beers, with a wide and rotating selection, but unfortunately their limited book selection did not include Smart Baseball.

The Lakewood is the new restaurant from the chef-owner of Scratch Bakery, which closed its downtown Durham location about a month ago and reopened in the space adjacent to this new restaurant just off Chapel Hill Road a little west of downtown. The Lakewood has a straightforward menu of small plates and sides that are more vegetable/seafood-focused and a half-dozen meat-centric main plates, plus, of course, fantastic desserts. I stuck with small plates once more and went with the roasted cauliflower with salsa verde, the parsnip pierogis with radishes, and the shrimp toast, the last of which was the star of the meal, coming drenched in a slightly sweet soy-sesame sauce. The cauliflower was a bit of a miss, as it was unevenly seasoned and underdone in the center of some of the florets; I probably should have caved to my baser instincts and ordered the Brussels sprouts with bacon jam instead. I chose the weirdest dessert on the menu, a rice tart with roasted carrot sorbet, which came in a traditional French tart crust with a thick custard in it that had some broken rice grains and was not terribly sweet, since the sweetness came from that carrot sorbet. That was the best thing on the plate, with a deep, earthy sweetness and a gorgeous deep orange color.

Jubala Coffee in Raleigh serves Counter Culture Coffee with multiple single-origin options, even offering two for espresso drinks in addition to the regular blend. They also offer sweet biscuits with various options, including egg and bacon or sausage sandwiches, with the eggs cooked to order; I prefer biscuits without that sweetness, but the texture of these was still excellent and the over medium egg was cooked perfectly. On the Durham side of the triangle, Cocoa Cinnamon, a recommendation from a co-worker of mine, roasts its own coffee (under the 4th Dimension label) and offers a couple of pour-over options, as well as churros at their Lakewood location, although I went to a different shop and didn’t think churros for breakfast was the most sensible plan.

I did hit two places I’ve been before: Durham’s Nanataco, which has never failed me yet and had one of my favorite special meat options, hog jowl, as a monthly feature; and Raleigh’s Beasley’s for fried chicken.

Stick to baseball, 3/31/18.

Three new Insider pieces since last week: My annual season predictions post, a Grapefruit League scouting roundup (including Phils, Tigers, O’s, Rays, Pirates, and Atlanta prospects), and a draft blog post on three possible first rounders. No chat this past week, as I’m in North Carolina for the NHSI and am headed over to East Carolina today to see the two big bats for Wichita State.

Smart Baseball is now out in paperback, just in time to put one in every Easter basket you hand out this year.

And now, the links…

Loveless.

Loveless was one of the five nominees for the most recent Academy Award for Best Foreign Language Film, the latest film from Russian director Andrey Zvyagintsev (The Return, Leviathan), after it won the Jury Prize at Cannes and earned a nomination for Best Film at the European Film Awards, where it lost to The Square. It is a grim, intense, misanthropic film that expresses the director’s extreme discontent at the decline in his home country’s society under Vladimir Putin, and despite how painful the film can be to watch, it’s also one of the best films I’ve seen from 2017.

Loveless skips the prologue, so when the film opens, the couple Zhenya and Boris are already divorcing and at each others’ throats, trying to sell their condo and dispose of their unwanted 12-year-old son Alexey (also called Aloysha within the movie). An early, harrowing scene shows the two insulting each other while trying to avoid taking responsibility or custody of their son, whom Zhenya wants to just ship off to boarding school; unbeknownst to them, Alexey is hiding in the next room, caught in a silent scream as he cries and hears how neither of his parents wants anything to do with him. Both have already moved on to new relationships, Boris with an attractive and very pregnant young blonde named Marsha, Zhenya with a slightly older but very fit and successful man named Anton, and the first 40% or so of the film shows them happily adjusting to their new lives and having lots of sex.

The film’s tone turns abruptly when Zhenya calls Boris to say that Alexey’s school called and that he hasn’t been seen in school for two days. Both parents were so busy screwing their new partners that neither noticed he was missing. The remainder of the film follows the search for Alexey, from disinterested police to the volunteer crew that helps find missing people to the virulent acrimony between the two parents, neither of whom seems all that broken up over their son’s disappearance.

The story takes place against a backdrop of a literally and figuratively cold Moscow, full of abandoned and decaying buildings, denuded forests in midwinter, and people who can barely bother to care about anything but themselves. Boris’ employer is a fundamentalist Christian who requires his employees to be married with kids, and he fears losing his job if his divorce is discovered; Zhenya owns a beauty salon where her employees all seem to have similar stories of faithless ex-husbands. When the investigating police officer and then the head of the search-and-rescue force both come to talk to the parents, the two reveal that they know little about their son’s life, struggling to identify any more than one friend or to say what his interests might be. Characters often disengage with the people around them by mindlessly scrolling social media sites – none more so than Zhenya, who can’t even pay attention to Anton, the man she supposedly loves, for a full dinner.

Zvyagintsev’s disaffection at the state of his country extends beyond the mere callousness of its citizens to the manipulative autocracy established by Vladimir Putin. (There was even a political campaign against this film before the Russian board chose to submit it as the country’s nominee this year.) We hear radio and TV news broadcasts that decry fake news while also disseminating heavily one-sided reports on the country’s invasion of eastern Ukraine and the Crimea. The state is useless to its citizens; the police can barely be bothered to look into the disappearance of a 12-year-old boy, and the officer dismisses the parents’ half-hearted concerns by discussing the stats on runaways and suggesting that the kid is probably just hanging out at the mall.

The long shots of empty buildings, bare forests, and peeling trees give the movie a dystopian feel, as if we’re in the Eurasia of 1984, even though there’s nothing overtly dystopian about the plot. Zvyagintsev keeps the overt political references to a minimum until the very end of the film – which, mild spoiler, there isn’t going to be a happy ending to this story – instead depicting the individuals in the story as selfish to the point of sociopathy, including the two parents and Zhenya’s lunatic, paranoid mother, who seems to loathe her own daughter and thinks that this is all a scam to try to con her out of her house or whatever meager possessions she might still own. The question that lingers over the story, unstated but strongly implied, is what kind of state might lead its citizens to such savage ideas even when their material needs are met.

The two lead actors, Aleksey Rozin (Boris … why is it always Boris) and Maryana Spivak (Zhenya), are superb, but Matvey Novikov steals the few scenes he has as Alyosha/Aleksey, even though it’s his first credited role. Alexey Fateev also shines as Ivan, the head of the volunteer force, the only truly ‘good’ character in the film, bringing a convincing blend of command and empathy to his role, which involves leading the search and dealing with these two feckless parents who didn’t even notice their kid was missing for two days.

A Fantastic Woman won the Oscar over Loveless, and the Chilean film is a more entertaining movie with a more important message and a command performance from Daniela Vega, a trans woman playing a trans woman, to power it. That’s a movie I could recommend to just about anybody. Loveless is, in a way, like a great Russian novel of the peak period in that country’s literature: It’s brilliant, searing, overwhelming, and yet bleak and incisive enough that many viewers would likely rather turn away than fight through to the mirthless finish.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi.

I’m a bit late to the Star Wars party, but I finally watched The Last Jedi (now available to rent/buy on amazon or iTunes) on Thursday evening, which I believe makes me the last person in the United States to see this movie. I have seen The Force Awakens and would agree with what I think is the consensus that this movie is better than that one was; if TFA was the greatest hits album, TLJ is the album after that where the band tries to recapture the sound of its best output, and intermittently succeeds.

I imagine most of you have seen this already, so here’s a briefer than usual plot summary. The movie picks up right at the end of TFA; Kylo Ren is still Mad in Space, Rey is still with Luke Skywalker on the island planet, Finn is still boring, Leia still kicks ass, and the Rebels are still lucky to exist given the firepower and numbers the First Order brings to the fight. After a Pyrhhic victory to open the film, the Rebels find themselves chased even through lightspeed travel, which we’re told is impossible (the tracking through lightspeed, not the lightspeed part, which is actually impossible), and must thus find a way to disable the First Order’s tracking capability so they can escape to a safe hiding spot to regroup. Meanwhile, Rey wants to grow up to be a Jedi and find out who her parents were, and Poe Dameron still has problems with authority and is a poor judge of what constitutes acceptable losses in battle.

The women absolutely carry this film, and I don’t think that’s entirely by design. Daisy Ridley stole the first film in this trilogy as Rey, apparently to the surprise of the studio, and she remains a riveting, central figure in this film. Kelly Marie Tran debuts as Rose, another character like Rey – it’s hard to imagine these films without them – and just underscores the point that casting more women even in roles that studios would historically have handed to men adds something, rather than just avoiding negative PR. Creating female characters who are tough and resourceful, who can fight but who also think well on their feet, isn’t any harder than creating male characters who are or do these things, and it’s no less credible. If anything, The Last Jedi gives Rose short shrift by dropping her into the film without much character development, but it’s possible she’ll play a larger role in the next installment, too. Carrie Fisher’s final turn as Leia may come across as even more powerful because we lost her before the movie was even released, but the increased role the writers of these last two films gave her character has also helped put them above The Phantom Menace trilogy. Laura Dern also appears as Admiral Hodor … er, Holdo, another Resistance leader who takes over when Leia ends up in a coma, and while Holdo’s plan is kind of terrible, Dern, a generally tremendous actress in any role, does a superb job of threading the needle between stern by-the-book authority to contrast with Poe and presenting herself as a thoughtful, strong leader willing to do whatever it takes to keep the Rebels alive.

This was also the funniest Star Wars movie by a wide margin, with some dopey physical comedy (that still made me laugh because inside I am just a 12-year-old boy who laughs when people in movies fall down), a good bit more sarcasm than I’m used to from these films, and an utterly brilliant nod to the now ancient Star Wars parody short “Hardware Wars.” Johnson is absolutely playing with viewers’ expectations throughout the film, and where TFA gave viewers the answers they wanted, The Last Jedi goes in the other direction, setting up an obvious answer and then responding to it with sarcasm or a twist. Given the reverence afforded to this saga, a little nose-tweaking here is warranted and does help avoid the self-seriousness that permeated both TFA and especially The Phantom Menace.

The Force Awakens was a perfectly cromulent film – entertaining, but nothing new beyond the special effects. We got our cantina scene, our flying through narrow passages battle scene, our light saber fights, Jedi mind tricks, a Kessel Run joke, and too many other allusions to the original trilogy. It worked, but it felt too much like a nostalgia play, and perhaps a plea to forget the intervening trilogy of films. The Last Jedi is less derivative of the series, but now we’re devolving into this pattern of “let’s put the heroes in extreme jeopardy, kill off a bunch of redshirts, and save the characters with names” over and over in the films, and that becomes a bit tiresome. It invokes adrenaline fatigue and tends to come at the expense of story and/or character development. There’s a real lost opportunity here when Rey is with Luke Skywalker and, in theory, learning about the Jedi religion and traditions; the biggest revelation she gets about her character comes not from Luke, but from Kylo “my parents didn’t love me enough” Ren.

And that’s the other aspect of both of these new films I haven’t really bought. I’m all for changing up the archetype of a villain in space epics, but “goth kid” isn’t all that compelling, and Driver’s mopey delivery comes across as depressed, not depraved. This script does a better job than its predecessor in explaining Ren’s backstory, and how the son of Han and Leia could become the most dangerous person in the known universe, so I’m holding out hope we’ll get more of his character development in the third film. This film was replete with plots and subplots and probably more named characters than it could really handle in 150 or so minutes, but there were still arcs that could have used more exploration.

They also could have cut Finn’s story substantially to make room for further depth in the narratives around Rey or Kylo. I know Finn is a popular character and John Boyega is likable, but I don’t think he has any charisma at all in this role – certainly not next to Oscar Isaak’s Poe, who is drawn with some very sharp lines but that at least let Isaak tear up the proverbial fucking dance floor. I’m still unclear on what Finn’s role in the greater story arc of these two new movies is, and the side plot where he and Rose go off to the gambling planet to find a master codebreaker (master … breaker?), played in fine scene-chewing fashion by Benicio del Toro, is the weakest part of the film by 12 parsecs.

This movie looks incredible, as you’d expect given the studios behind it and the money invested in it, but Rian Johnson has also clearly given consideration to how he can use things like color or establishing shots to contribute to the feel of the story. There’s a lot of red in the film, including Supreme Leader Snoke’s henchpersons and the tracks left in the salt on the rebels’ disused hiding planet. (I know we’re supposed to think ‘blood,’ but it kept making me think of Australia’s Simpson Desert, where iron oxide in the sand turns the entire landscape a deep red.) There’s also a lot of moving water in the film, including some stunning waterfall shots, designed to give you the sense of descent and to feel several characters fighting the current, especially Rey as she resists the dark aspects of the Force within her and the pull of Kylo’s own darkness. Such small, subtle additions to a script that often feels bombastic and certainly doesn’t shy away from huge battle sequences or grand gestures by its characters may be lost on viewers caught up in the extensive plot, but they do help set the tone and, I think, establish a more complex worldview than any of the preceding films offered.

At 153 minutes, The Last Jedi is probably both too long and too short; Johnson had enough thematic material to go three-plus hours, but the repetitive nature of some of the plot details wore on me by the end, and there really isn’t much doubt who’s going to live to see the end of the film and who’s not, so the question becomes “how will Johnson write them out of trouble this time,” rather than the more intense question of “who’s going to survive?” Unfortunately, Johnson isn’t involved in the as-yet untitled Episode IX, which will be written and directed by JJ Abrams and Chris Terrio, which I don’t interpret as a positive sign given some of their recent projects (The Cloverfield Paradox, Batman vs. Superman) and the wealth of material bequeathed upon them by The Last Jedi. With principal photography set to begin in just four months, it’s probably vain to hope that they’ll get another voice in the room to help give these arcs the resolution they might deserve.

The Origins of Totalitarianism.

I spent my first year in college as a Government major, with some vague idea of studying law and/or working in politics after graduation, but abandoned the major completely by the middle of my sophomore year because the reading absolutely killed me. I like to read – I would hope that was evident to regulars here – but the kind of writing we were assigned in those classes was just dreadful. There was a book by Samuel Huntington (The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order) that ended any interest I might have had in the subject because it was such an arduous, opaque read, and I eventually switched to a joint sociology/economics major, which got me into more of my comfort zone of a blend of math and theory.

Hannah Arendt’s The Origins of Totalitarianism reminded me tremendously of Huntington and John Stuart Mill and other books I was assigned in Gov 1040 but never actually finished, both in prose style and in tone. I understand that this book is considered extremely influential and an important work in our comprehension of how movements like the Nazi Party arise and even gain a modicum of popular support. The arguments herein, however, are almost exclusively assertions, with anecdotal evidence or no evidence at all, and the circumlocutory writing style meant that even though I retain a lot of what I read in most cases, I found I wasn’t even retaining what I read here from one page to the next.

Arendt’s main thrust here is that totalitarian governments, which she distinguishes from mere autocracies, arise when their leaders follow a rough playbook that sets up specific groups as enemies of the state, rallies disaffected followers against those groups, and often makes their supports into unwitting advocates of their own eventual oppression. Such governments then retain power by eliminating the possibility of what Arendt refers to as human spontaneity through an Orwellian system of truth-denial and unpredictable favoritism that puts subjects on ever-shifting ground, preventing them from mounting any effective system of dissent or resistance.

At least, I think that’s what she was arguing, but she used a lot of extraneous words to get there – and some of what she described in the early going, where she addresses the history of the so-called “Jewish question,” sounded a lot like victim blaming. She certainly says the Jews of Europe did not adequately understand how they were being used by European elites or how their connections to unpopular leaders like the Hapsburgs thus put them in the crosshairs of populist movements that aimed at overthrowing the monarchical or despotic status quo. She also seems to credit the same movements with their willingness to employ efficient methods of killing for its surprise value – no one expected anything like the Nazis’ system of killing masses of people, based itself on a process of dehumanization of entire classes of the population.

Whether I fully grasped the arguments Arendt makes in this book – and I freely acknowledge I probably did not – but much of what she does assert seems apposite to our present-day political situation, including the way in which Trump supporters, including his sycophants in the media, have repeatedly handwaved away his distortions of fact or his apparent collusion with a hostile foreign power. I’ll close, therefore, with this selection of quotes from The Origins of Totalitarianism that could just as easily have been written today about our current environment.

In the United States, social antisemitism may one day become the very dangerous nucleus for a political movement.

Politically speaking, tribal nationalism always insists that its own people is surrounded by “a world of enemies,” “one against all,” that a fundamental difference exists between this people and all others. It claims its people to be unique, individual, incompatible with all others, and denies theoretically the very possibility of a common mankind long before it is used to destroy the humanity of man.

The rank and file is not disturbed in the least when it becomes obvious that their policy serves foreign-policy interests of another and even hostile power.

(The Nazis) impressed the population as being very different from the “idle talkers” of other parties.

The mob really believed that truth was whatever respectable society had hypocritically passed over, or covered up with corruption.

Hitler circulated millions of copies of his book in which he stated that to be successful, a lie must be enormous.

The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the convinced Communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction (I.e., the reality of experience) and the distinction between true and false (I.e., the standards of thought) no longer exist.

The Beak of the Finch.

Winner of the 1995 Pulitzer Prize for Non-Fiction, Jonathan Weiner’s The Beak of the Finch: A Story of Evolution in Our Time should have ended most of the inane arguments still coming from creationists and other science deniers about the accuracy of the theory of evolution. Weiner tells the story of the Grants, a married couple of biologists who spent 20 years studying Galapagos finches – the same species that Darwin spotted on his voyage with the Beagle and that helped him develop his first theory of adaptation via natural selection – and observed natural selection and evolution in action. This remarkable study, which also showed how species evolve in response to changes in their environment and to other species in their ecosystems, was a landmark effort to both verify Darwin’s original claims and strengthen them in a way that, again, should have put an end to this utter stupidity that still infects so much of our society, even creeping into public science education in the south and Midwest.

The finches are actually a set of species across the different islands of the Galapagos, with the Grants studying those on Daphne Major, an uninhabited island in the archipelago that has multiple species of finch existing alongside each other because they occupy different ecological niches. Over the two decades they studied these species, massive changes in weather patterns (in part caused by El Niño and La Niña) led to years of total drought and years of historically high rainfall, with various species on the island responding to these fluctuations in the environment in ways that affected both population growth and characteristics. The beaks of the book’s title refer to the Grants’ focus on beak dimensions, which showed that the finches’ beaks would change in response to those environmental changes. In times of drought, for example, the supply of certain seeds that specific finch species relied on for their sustenance might become more scarce, and there would be a response within a few generations (or even one) favoring birds with longer or stronger beaks that gave them access to new supplies of food. Many Galapagos finches crack open seed cases to get to the edible portions within, so if those seeds are rarer in a given year, the birds with stronger beaks can crack open more cases and get to more food, given them a tangible advantage in the rather ruthless world of natural selection.

Weiner focuses on the Grants’ project and discoveries throughout the book, but intersperses it with other anecdotes and with notes from Darwin’s travels and his two major works on the subject, On the Origin of Species and The Descent of Man. He incorporates the discovery of DNA and how that has accelerated our ability to study and understand evolutionary changes. He goes into the famous example of the white English moth that found itself at a severe disadvantage in the polluted world of the early Industrial Revolution, and how a single gene that determined wing color led to a shift in the moth’s population from mostly white to mostly black (to match the soot covering trees near Manchester and London) – and back again after England finally took steps to clean up its air. This one example is especially instructive in our ongoing experience of climate change, which Weiner refers to throughout as global warming (the preferred term at the time), and opens up a discussion about “artificial selection,” from how we’re screwing up the global ecosystem to antibiotic resistance to the futility of pesticide-driven agriculture (with the targeted pests evolving resistance very rapidly to each new chemical we dump on our crops).

Although Weiner doesn’t stake out a clear position on theism, the tone of the book, especially the final third, goes beyond mere anti-creationism into an outright rejection of any supernatural role in the processes of natural selection and evolution. While that may be appropriate for most of the book, as such processes as the development of the human eye (the argument about the hypothetical watchmaker) can be explained through Darwinian evolution, Weiner does overstep when he discusses the rise of human consciousness, handwaving it away as perhaps just a simple change in neurons or a single genetic mutation that led to the very thing that makes us us. (Which isn’t to say we’re that different from chimpanzees, with whom we still share 99% of our genes. Perhaps David Brin was on to something with his “neo-chimps” in the Uplift series after all.)

The most common rejoinder I encounter online when I mention that evolution is real is that we can’t actually see evolution and therefore it’s “only a theory.” The latter misunderstands the scientific definition of theory, but the former is just not true: We do see evolution, we have seen it, and we’ve seen dramatic shifts in species’ characteristics in ordinary time. Some speciation may occur in geological time, but the evolution of new species of monocellular organisms can happen in days (again, if you don’t believe in evolution, keep taking penicillin for that staph infection), and natural selection in vertebrates can take place rapidly enough for us to see it happen. If The Beak of the Finch were required reading in every high school biology class, perhaps we’d have fewer people – the book cites a survey from the 1990s that claims half of Americans don’t accept evolution – still denying science here in 2018.

Next up: David Grann’s Killers of the Flower Moon: The Osage Murders and the Birth of the FBI, among the favorites to win the Pulitzer for Non-Fiction this year.