Klawchat 12/7/17.

Content: Insider posts on Maitan, Mikolas, and Minor; and on Castillo, Aledmys, and Boxberger. A look at the VR version of the Catan boardgame for Ars Technica. I should also have another boardgame review up for Paste shortly.

Keith Law: Freak what you heard. Klawchat.

Seth: What’s more drawn out, the Stanton sweepstakes or Kurt Vile’s last album?
Keith Law: I have never liked Vile’s work – mostly his singing style. But the Stanton thing is stupid: It’s all about him, and the team is pretending it isn’t.

Jay: As a Clevelander and a baseball fan, how do writers lose their HOF ballots. Asking for a friend…
Keith Law: The only time I know of a writer losing his ballot while eligible is Le Batard. They won’t revoke anyone’s ballot for sheer incompetence or the mere appearance of impropriety (e.g., voting out of spite, voting only for players the writer knows personally).

Jay: Have you see Murder on the Orient Express, any thoughts on how it matches to the book?
Keith Law: Haven’t seen it; I love Branagh, but the reviews have been tepid and the trailer makes his Poirot look so over the top, which isn’t true to the character. Poirot is a pompous little Belgian, but he’s not PT Barnum.

GS: Thoughts on players the Twins received in bonus pool trades? Think they handled the money well?
Keith Law: Meh.

Reese: Aaron Boone… leaves me scratching my head . Seems like great guy !! But no managerial experience.
Keith Law: I like Aaron personally and enjoyed working with him, but I have been pretty clear over the last ten years that I don’t think hiring a major-league manager with zero managerial experience at any level is a good idea, and the results of such hires have been very poor.

GS: Top Chef is back! Can’t wait for you recaps. Any cities you’d like them to go to in the future? Minneapolis would be fun…
Keith Law: I announced in my newsletter this week that I am not doing recaps this season.

Crazy Eddie: With the Tigers in a rebuild, would they listen to offers on Michael Fulmer? Any rumors that he is available?
Keith Law: There were rumors to that effect last summer but he ended the year on the DL and this is the wrong time to deal him.

Dog: Is this chat protected by attorney-client privilege?
Keith Law: Well, neither of us is an attorney, so that’s a yes.

Brian: Do you think AJ Preller has done enough to justify his 3 year extension? Do you think the Padres rebuilding plan is working under his leadership?
Keith Law: I do – I think the system is very, very strong.

Matt: O’s beat reporters keep mentioning the possibility of Hunter Harvey pitching in the majors next summer. That would be madness, right?
Keith Law: Yes. That sounds like someone in the org trying to push an idea on people above him.

Robbie: What do you think of the job Eppler has done for the Angels? He seems to really be making solid moves without mortgaging the future. The simmons trade has to be one of the most underrated in some time.
Keith Law: Simmons trade was great, the farm system is massively improved since he took over, and I like the way he’s added around the margins given how handcuffed he has been by the poor system he inherited and major financial commitments to just a few players.

RSO: How much can the Orioles expect to receive for 1 year of Manny Machado?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s going to be traded, but I would ask for two significant prospects. One year of Machado is huge value for a contender. Might add 5-6 wins, maybe more.

cnp: Would you ever consider running for public office?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t rule anything out – I’ve always believed in keeping all doors open. It’s better to have an opportunity come to you and then have the choice to decline than to never have the opportunity at all.

Jimmy: If you were a GM would you give $350 Mil to Harper or Machado?
Keith Law: Yes, either.

Guest: Any thoughts on Kazuo Ishiguro winning the Nobel Prize in Literature?
Keith Law: I’m a fan. Loved Remains of the Day and Never Let Me Go – both are top 100 all time novels for me.

Dave: What’s your gut feeling about Matt Olson? Potential franchise player, platoon guy that got hot, somewhere in between?
Keith Law: Below average regular is most likely outcome. Juiced ball may have helped him a lot.

Shaun: Love the things you post on. For your pour over coffee, do you use a gooseneck kettle, and/or is a standard kettle good enough to get by.
Keith Law: I use a regular kettle. The gooseneck thing is about 10% substance and 90% style for me.

Anthony: Which Braves prospects would be on your Do Not Trade list?
Keith Law: If the Angels called and offered Trout, but you had to trade Acuna, would you do it? I would. So I’d say none of them.

JP: Thoughts on Bitcoin?
Keith Law: It feels like every other bubble I’ve ever lived through or read about.

Steph: Happy Holidays klaw and thanks for the annual guides! I heard yesterday was the 1 year anniversary of the Chris Sale trade. 2 part question: how would you rate the White Sox transaction over this past year and what should be their goals for this offseason? Has Moncada taken a step backwards in his development or is he performing as expected?
Keith Law: Happy holidays to you as well. I think Hahn has done a great job overall in restocking the system, maximizing the value of most of his tradeable assets. I think the trade with the Yankees is the one least likely to work out. Moncada for me is the same player he was a year ago, same upside, same real concerns about his bat.

John: Why do people still get so upset with Hall of Fame ballots? The institution is meaningless at this point–it no longer honors the best players. It’s just nostalgia porn for old men.
Keith Law: The part that bothers me is that these writers with horrendous ballots, like Livingston, are assigned to cover the sport, yet show with their ballots that they don’t know the first thing about the sport. If you can’t realize that Chipper Jones is a Hall of Famer, then you shouldn’t be paid to cover baseball. There are lots of people out there who could do the job and also understand something about the sport.

JP: Giving up JBJ for Abreu would be a terrible deal for the Red Sox, right?
Keith Law: I think that’s an overpayment.

Randy: Thoughts on Joe McCarthy (Rays) after his solid 2017 at Double-A. Any chance he develops into a big league regular?
Keith Law: Yes, I’d agree with that. Potential first-rounder before a serious back injury killed his junior year at UVA, mostly because everyone believed he could hit. Now it seems that’s coming true. He was a tick old for AA, though, and obviously needs more power as a corner guy, but I think 15 HR is within the realm of possibility (before we discuss the MLB ball).

Joe: Do you have any thoughts about Johnny Depp as Grindelwald in the next Fantastic Beasts movie? Even if one can manage to put abuse allegations aside, it still seems like a miscast for the role.
Keith Law: Yes, totally miscast. What Depp does well – and I do think he’s a very good actor – is wrong for that role.

Nick: True or false: “It is better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer”
Keith Law: I’d say true.

Ben: Thoughts on Jerusalem decision? Seems like many advisors told Trump not to do it, but being the 5 year old that he is, he did it. It’s almost like he’s hoping to cause as much chaos anywhere and everywhere.
Keith Law: This administration has consistently pandered to the extremist Christian right. It fits the pattern.

BD in DC: Gerrit Cole for B. Goodwin, E Fedde, and L Garcia… who says no?
Keith Law: That’s a terrible deal for Pittsburgh.

Troy: Hey Keith – Thoughts on Monte Harrison? Is he for real if he can stay healthy?
Keith Law: I think he has a chance to be an above-average regular, with a fairly high bust probability still because of plate discipline/pitch recognition questions. I like the athleticism and hand strength.

Bobby Evans: I want to give up all or most of the top prospects in my already thin farm system for Stanton’s big contract. That’s not a bad idea, right?
Keith Law: It’s not a bad idea if you aren’t paying so much of the deal that you choke the franchise for the next decade. The discussed package of players isn’t my concern; they can float the losses of those guys.

Clay: Is Brazil turning into a legitimate baseball country? A handful have found their way to the bigs, at least a couple prospects (Gohara, Pardinho) are highly touted.
Keith Law: My limited knowledge of baseball in Brazil – boosted by that great multi-part series Pedro Moura did about it maybe a year ago – is that it’s popular where Japanese emigres settled, but unknown in other parts of the country.

Jesse B: Ohtani, Gore, Baez, and Quantrill to go with Myers, Hosmer, Margot and Tatis, is that enough to make the Padres relevant again?
Keith Law: The Padres signing Hosmer would be, by far, the dumbest fucking thing they could do.

Tyler: Thinking of quitting Facebook/Twitter as a New Year’s resolution. Any suggestions as to other time-killing websites that won’t sink me further into depression?
Keith Law: The dish? Wait, scratch that, those Saturday posts are pretty depressing.

Daniel: What fallout do you anticipate from Braves scandal? Will other organizations have to clean up the way they do things?
Keith Law: I believe the bundling practice will stop – it was definitely illegal, but the system encouraged teams to do it, and the argument was that the players still ended up getting paid so the harm was somewhat limited. But MLB has made it clear they’re done with looking the other way on much of that stuff.

Justin: Who is a better plan B for the Cardinals if/when Stanton opts for the west coast – Donaldson or Yelich?
Keith Law: Donaldson if the goal is win now, which I think it is. Yelich is the better long-term asset, but should cost you more in prospects.

Jake: If you’re the Cardinals, which young pitchers are you least willing to deal for a bat. Reyes and Hicks?
Keith Law: I’d trade any of them. Reyes is still coming back from TJ, and I said well before his injury I thought the short stride made him an injury risk (and made his breaking ball worse too), so there are enough knocks that I wouldn’t make him untouchable even though he has the best stuff of all their young arms.

Justin R: As someone who takes anxiety medication, do the studies that such medication increase risk of early-onset Alzheimer’s disease worry you? I stopped taking Celexa a few years back because of this but am thinking of jumping back in and wanted to weigh the risks.
Keith Law: The etiological connection between these drugs and eventual dementia is not well established, and the risk even in patients who start SSRIs before age 65 remains low, just higher than it is for those who never take them. You have to consider the benefit – do I want to live with anxiety, and the associated lower quality of life, to avoid this higher risk that is not completely understood? I’ve been on the medication, off, back on … yeah, I don’t think I want to live unmedicated. I was miserable and it affected people around me too.

Sterling Malory Chris Archer: What is it about Ohtani’s swing that you think he won’t be successful in MLB?
Keith Law: I answered that at length in my article about him: http://klaw.me/2khlBb0

Joe: Does Austin Hays have 60h 60p tools?
Keith Law: No.

Wally: If you were a GM, would you do more prospect challenge trades than we see generally? Mejia for Robles seems like one that might make sense, given the roster composition of CLE and WAS. Would that be fair, or would one side need to top it up a little?
Keith Law: Both top ten overall prospects, reasonable from a value sense, but Cleveland could also move Mejia to another position rather than trade him.

Steve: Your music playlists featurelots of obscure artists, maybe u hear them on sat radio, but What’s your music “wheelhouse”, if you can describe.
Keith Law: I do have Sirius XM but they tend to be late to bring new artists on air. I like music that’s interesting, that boasts something like strong melodies, intelligent lyrics, technical proficiency, new sounds or textures. I’ve listened to so much music in my life that I get a lot of “I’ve heard this before” feelings from mainstream radio.

Chris: Any idea why Ohtani and/or his agents would make 23 teams go through a useless exercise of filling out the dog and pony forms?
Keith Law: Maybe they had a purpose that didn’t make it useless. Maybe they didn’t want to show such disrespect to teams as to say “Ohtani is so unwilling to play for you that nothing you can say would change his mind.”

EC: For closers and the HOF, even if – and that is a big if – we wanted to put them in, don’t we have to wait until we have a larger crop to judge who were the best (Mariano excluded)? There seems to be an arguments that Hoffman is the second best, but there are some that seem obviously better (Nathan) or could be considerably more valuable by the end of their career (Kimbrel, Jansen). What’s the rush to get Hoffman in?
Keith Law: Every writer who lists Hoffman on his/her ballot is telling you that s/he still values saves, even though we know the stat is meaningless for discussing individual value. If Hoffman pitched exactly the same way, the same 1089 innings, the same 2.87 ERA, but had zero saves, this isn’t a discussion. He would have fallen off the ballot two years ago. He did less in his career than Brandon Webb, for crying out loud. But these voters will not let go of their precious saves, even as the teams they cover have made it very clear that they see no utility in the statistic.

Ted: Are you planning on updating your kitchen gifts and cookbook recommendations for this year? I have found them to be very helpful around the holidays the past few years?
Keith Law: The gift guide went up yesterday (http://klaw.me/2AwOlma) and the cookbook guide will go up after the chat.

Jason S: Have you had Philz coffee? If so, thoughts on it, have you had better?
Keith Law: I have had it. I’ve had a lot that’s better.

Andrew: Hi klaw, greetings from the UK, something of a baseball noob here and have adopted the Rays. My first season of regular viewing was last season. Was just wondering your general view on the strength (or otherwise) of their farm system..
Keith Law: I think it’s below the median, but I’ll do a detailed ranking & explanation in January when I post the prospect rankings package.

Jay: With Del Rosario, Negret, and possibly 5 1st round/comp A picks, do you think the Royals can turn around the farm system quickly?
Keith Law: I don’t. You might – I don’t want to infer too much here – be overrating the impact of the two former Atlanta prospects. I will say this: they probably need to approach this draft differently than the last few. Their recent emphasis on high school pitching hasn’t panned out so far, and with the extra picks and the money they bring, they can be more creative than they’ve been since the new system went into place.

Jack: How concerned should phillies fans be about mickey moniak? Should he start in low a again?
Keith Law: I’m pretty concerned. He looked like he’d never seen a slider before every time I saw him, and I believe the Phillies are considering moving him to a corner, having played him there in instructs too.

JC: Are there any long term internal options the Braves have at 3B? Let’s include college options to be drafted at #8 (assuming, of course, they are BPA while drafted). If not, should they sit out this year for external options in a potential buyers market?
Keith Law: I’m not a Riley fan, but he is their best 3b prospect and I know internally they rank him more highly than I do.

Chris: You talk a lot on these chats about abuse and assault from athletes and other entertainers (and thank you for that), especially how ridiculous it can be that people then target the victim as a liar. However, I wanted to know what your opinion was around rehabilitation and what needs to happen before you would accept those accused getting back into the spotlight.
Keith Law: Those people can certainly go through counseling, although its effect is far from certain (especially for those abusers who are themselves trauma victims). But we don’t have to let them be famous again. I don’t need to see Josh Lueke in a major league uniform again – there are plenty of guys who throw hard and have never raped a woman.

Eddy: I’m having trouble nailing down the HR and SB totals for Gleyber Torres in a typical season. What is a reasonable expectation? Seen everything from 15 HR to 25+ and single-digit SB to 20.
Keith Law: He’s not a runner. I could see 20+ homers, definitely, but if he steals 20 it’ll be on instincts rather than speed.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: I apologize if you have answered this before, but it is December so it is Hall of Fame season. Is Pete Rose a Hall of Famer? Not a Hall of Fame talent…a Hall of Famer.
Keith Law: I think he has to be, as much as it disgusts me. I can’t argue for any player who is a ‘known’ PED user under the argument that the Hall needs to show the best players, period, and then argue against Rose.

TJ: The common refrain around the Red Sox is that they need power, but wouldn’t a consistent hitter at 1B be just as valuable? So many times to break a game open they just need a base hit while Hanley would swing out of his shoes to hit the long ball. (anecdotal but still). Is there a point at which upgrading the power is being pursued too much to the detriment of a better offense?
Keith Law: They really do need power. They have plenty of guys who can hit. The lack of power sank the offense last year.

Chris : Any chance Mickey Jannis gets scooped up in Rule 5?
Keith Law: Doubt it.

Enquiring Mind: Better upside and/or chance of reaching it: Kingery or Bo Bichette? I’ll hang up and listen. Thanks as always for the chats.
Keith Law: Bichette better upside. Kingery is a big leaguer right now, though.

Jeff: Is the talent in this year’s Rule 5 better than normal, or are there just more recognizable names that haven’t panned out?
Keith Law: Couple of more recognizable names – Nick Burdi’s name has come up a few times, I think he’ll go off the board – but not necessarily better ones.

Luke: Should we all just quit caring about the Hall? I fail to understand how Vizquel is getting so much support while Edmonds got booted off the ballot in his first year, Edgar and Walker can’t get elected, the roiders sit on the ballot every year taking up votes and keeping deserving players out…nothing about it makes sense. And then there are writers like Livingston that you commented about on Twitter today that make a mockery of the whole process. Rant over. I guess my question is how do they fix the process for election?
Keith Law: The electorate for the Hall will change more slowly than the electorate for postseason awards, because the former includes a lot of people who haven’t covered the game for 5+ years, and a lot of people who still cover it but haven’t bothered to keep up with the seismic shifts in how baseball players are valued by the industry itself. But it will change.

Evan: Atkins said that they are going to exhaust Connor Greene as a SP “until he has no choice.” (Smart decision.) Do you think Greene is destined for the bullpen, and if so, could he be a top end high-leverage RP?
Keith Law: I would still try him out as a starter. I don’t think it’s foreordained that he’s a reliever.

Evan: I heard a rumor the Braves are trying to open up a corner OF spot for Acuna this season. If he plays the bulk of the year in the majors, what type of production do you think he would have?
Keith Law: I can’t imagine he’s there Opening Day, for service time reasons; that would be silly. But I’d release Matt Kemp for him, definitely. Think he’d hit .280-.290, low .300s OBP, 30+ steals … I want to say 10-12 homers, but the juiced ball has really thrown me off the last year or two. He hit 21 across A+-AA-AAA last year with the minor league ball, so is it absurd to say he could really hit 20 homers if you gave him 600 PA in the majors?

Brian: Not a question, but fwiw, my grievance with insane HoF ballots is exactly the same as yours. In fact, I’ve noticed this is usually what makes me upset about things in general: when people are in charge of things for no reason, and yet it is very hard to do anything about it …
Keith Law: It feels like you’re talking about something more than just sports here.

Dan: Heliot Ramos appeared to have a good debut this summer, but have you heard anything from scouts (or scouted yourself) to change your pre-draft opinion of him? Is there star upside there? Or more average regular?
Keith Law: Nothing new, just a great debut, which I don’t read a ton into other than that he didn’t fail right away, which worries the hell out of me when a player does that in his first pro (wood bat) experience. Some guys get around it – Nolan Jones was much better in 2017 than in his debut – but most don’t.

Tom: I believe on Twitter (or maybe it was a chat) that you said if the SF Giants took on all of Stanton’s contract, it would cripple the franchise. But earlier in this chat, you said you’d give $350m to Machado or Harper. Does it have to do more with the players receiving the contract, or what teams are positioned to hand out a contract of that size?
Keith Law: I don’t recall saying that, but I’d be way more comfortable giving that money to Harper or Machado, who are three years younger than Stanton; both better, higher-impact players, with more defensive value; and don’t have Stanton’s injury history.

James: Any inkling of where you think Otani will land?
Keith Law: Nope. I haven’t even asked anyone about it. It’s all BS until he signs, and then it matters.

Steve: I know you’ll probably have a write-up on it but what are you’re initial thoughts on Chatwood to the Cubs?
Keith Law: That’s WAY more money than I thought he’d get. I had him as a potential bargain (heh) because getting him out of Denver might help him rediscover his curveball.

Pat D: Franken and Conyers are rightfully resigning. Yet there sit Roy Moore and Donald Trump with people like Janet Porter getting airtime to defend them. At what point is it right to give up faith in the people of this country to do the right thing?
Keith Law: Oh, I passed that point a long time ago.

Tim: any truth to the rumors that ESPN is hiring Ohtani as your scouting intern because it represents a pay raise for Ohtani over what he will receive in this absolute garbage MLB international system?
Keith Law: It’s really cool that they all negotiated to raise the amount Ohtani’s team would get without regard to what the player himself – the one fans are paying to come to see – will get.

RSO: I know the Astros won the World Series last year, but how good does the Brian McCann trade look for them right now with Abreu, and Guzman both doing very well? Both have risen into the top 10 in their system according to some publications
Keith Law: I think the Astros are very happy with it.

Dutch: Lucroy should bounce back in 2018, no? IIRC he hit .300 with an OBP over .400 once he got out of Texas. Would imagine that Coors played a role in that 2nd half improvement too.
Keith Law: I think he’ll be better this year – no real reason to believe he just forgot how to hit and frame, or was somehow physically incapable of doing so.

Mike: Do you think it’s finally the year where a HS RHP goes 1-1?
Keith Law: I do not. I don’t see who that guy would be.

Dutch: Moving Myers back to the outfield would be incredibly stupid, no? Seems like Preller and San Diego have forgotten why they moved him to 1B.
Keith Law: Incredibly stupid.

Tony: Do you still write for ESPN or is all your work behind a paywall?
Keith Law: I’m having a hard time with the structure of this question.

Dennis: My project for 2018 is to read Don Quixote or Ulysses. Which do you recommend? Which will take longer to read?
Keith Law: Read Don Quixote. It’s just long. Ulysses is complicated, and it’s really not a book to be read like a novel.

Dennis: Do you like Henry James? If so, any recommendations?
Keith Law: I only liked Portrait of a Lady.

Charlie: Curious about your thoughts on the Martinez hire. Bench coach for a decade worthwhile preparation for the role, or just another flavor of “no managerial experience”? Do you see a distinction?
Keith Law: I would at least distinguish him from someone without any coaching experience. I have heard mixed things on Martinez over the years, but enough people whom I trust seem to like or recommend him that I want to give him the benefit of the doubt going into year one.

Dennis: Any interest in reading The Tale Of Genji?
Keith Law: I got 100 pages into it and bailed. Too slow. I’m not a huge poetry reader either, which didn’t help.

Tony: Given the numbers Cesar Hernandez has put up the past three years, how much better can the Phillies expect Kingery to be compared to that baseline? It seems like they have similar skillsets
Keith Law: Kingery’s a 70 defender at 2b with much more power, but I don’t think he’s going to post a .373 OBP any time soon. Makes Hernandez tradeable, but not necessarily someone who has to be traded today to make room because Kingery would be markedly better in 2018 (it could be a push now, Kingery better in the future due to power).

Chris: MLB.com just ranked Singer as their #1 draft prospect, but I know you’ve said he has reliever written all over him going forward. In your mind, what percentage chance does he have to stick as a starter?
Keith Law: Maybe 25%? I don’t think I’m doing a draft ranking until February now, but he won’t be top ten. Arm slot and action worry me. Dude was 90-91 the night I saw him face Kyle Wright.

Nelson: Whats a reasonable price to pay for 12oz bag of top notch coffee beans?
Keith Law: That’s going to run you $13-16, most likely.

Chuck: Do you expect Puk to be up in ’18?
Keith Law: Yes, before year-end.

Dennis: How do you carve out the time to read each day? I’m guessing you always have a book with you and you avoid internet browsing and social media.
Keith Law: I dedicate certain time to it in the morning, and I sit with my daughter every evening I’m home because she has to do 30 minutes of reading a night for homework.

Oden: No longer a prospect, but door you think Devers sticks at 3rd? Should Boston sign say Moose, move Devers across field?
Keith Law: Yes, he’s a 3b, chance to be a good one.

Adam Doctolero: If Hankins is there for the Giants at #2, he’s has to be the pick, right? Who else would you say is in that mix for a top-2 pick?
Keith Law: No I don’t think he has to be the pick at 2. He’s very good, but I wouldn’t separate him right away from the pack. Heck, Rocker is a different type of pitcher, but he could be above Hankins on some boards, and I haven’t even left Georgia yet.

Henry: Check out the new Noel Gallagher LP. It’s very good!
Keith Law: I have, but it didn’t hold my attention at all. Liam’s isn’t really setting the world on fire either. They’re better together, obviously.

John: Hot take: Billy Wagner is more deserving of the Hall of Fame than Trevor Hoffman. Better pitcher, shorter career. The only reason Wagner isn’t getting the support is that he retired at 39 and didn’t compile another 100+ saves like Hoffman did. (Neither are actually deserving, by the way…Wagner’s just closer)
Keith Law: I agree. Wagner was better than Hoffman when they actually pitched. I wouldn’t put either on my ballot.

Jim Nantz: Are the relatively low salaries paid to managers (I saw that Callaway won’t even clear $1M this year) a sign that teams don’t believe managers add much value?
Keith Law: I think that’s fair to assume.

Chris: You wisely are more bearish on Ohtani’s ability to be an impact player as both a pitcher and a hitter. Do you see a player ever filling both of those roles with the specialization of today’s game given how difficult it is to be a true two-way player?
Keith Law: I don’t. The hype around him has been ridiculous.

Andy: Don’t most teams rate their prospects more highly than you? I mean that even if they take an even handed approach, most teams are going to focus on positives of their guys, while minimizing the negatives.
Keith Law: Your job as a GM or farm director or VP is to try to evaluate your players objectively so you can make better decisions around trades, promotions, and adjustments. So if a team rates all or most of its prospects more highly than I do, then they’re probably doing themselves a disservice.

JJ: A writer for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch shared his HOF ballot. He voted for Clemens but not Bonds, for obvious (?) reasons. He also declined to vote for Chipper Jones, citing Joe Morgan’s plea for character to matter, specifically Jones’ “Sandy Hook was a hoax” tweet. Should Jones’ post-playing career dumbassery have any impact on his HOF candidacy?
Keith Law: If you read the one sentence in the voting guidelines, it seems fairly clear that we’re discussing character while a player. I think hoaxers should all be sent to live on the surface of Venus, but this was a single comment that he walked back fairly quickly. If you’re downgrading him for “character,” the lengthy extramarital affair he had while in the peak of his career should weigh more than a single post-career tweet. (If you want to argue none of this should matter, I’m fine with that too.)

Doug: You have a take on the John Oliver/Dustin Hoffman incident? Big fan of Oliver but it seemed a tad extreme in his part.
Keith Law: It is exactly what we needed, and I hope more people take a cue from Oliver and call the accused out in public when they’re getting a free pass.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions. Because of my travel schedule around the winter meetings next week, the next chat will probably be on December 21st (or thereabouts). Have a great weekend.

Gift guide for cooks, 2017 edition.

As usual, this is a repost of the previous year’s list, with new items I’ve added clearly marked, and some minor edits to the rest. There’s very little new for 2017; I just didn’t buy or get as much stuff this year, because I really don’t need anything, and I gave a lot more money to charity this year in the wake of this fall’s hurricanes. Enjoy and feel free to ask questions in the comments.

I’ve seen a few “Christmas gift guides for the cooks in your life!” over the last couple of years, but most of them are like this 2014 gem from Grub Street, with recommendations for things that no one could possibly need – a “rosemary stripper” (I have two of those; I call them “hands”); a “banana slicer” (use your paring knife, genius); a $140 toaster (makes toast); and a $1600 set of Thomas Keller-branded pans, which, unless he forged them personally out of pure adamantium, are a colossal fucking waste of money. These are not gifts to by the cook in your life; these are gifts to buy the person in your life who pretends to cook but really just likes playing with toys. Toys don’t make you a better chef; they just make you a less socially responsible one.

I do have a few pricier toys in my kitchen, but aside from one, they’re all highly functional, at the middle to low end of the price range for their jobs, and built to last a long time. I’ve had my chef’s knife for over a decade, my food processor for 17 years (my next upgrade – looking at this Cuisinart model), my Dutch oven for about eight years, and just replaced my 18-year-old stand mixer when we moved in 2013. You are free to call me cheap, but I think I’m just prudent. I’ll spend money in the kitchen if it gets me something I need. I will not spend money to get a famous name, a fancy design, or a paperweight to live at the back of a gadget drawer until we move again. If I can make do with something I already have in the house – binder clips, a (clean) putty knife, a (clean) paintbrush – I’ll gladly do that instead.

Therefore, what I recommend here – for your cheffy friends or for yourself – is largely what I own and use. If what I own isn’t available, or isn’t good value for the price, I recommend something else. I am also willing to answer any and all questions about these or other suggestions; if I include it here, that’s an endorsement that it’ll be money well spent. I will post an updated list of cookbooks I recommend in the next few days; in the meantime, here’s last year’s list.

The most important tool for any cook is a good chef’s knife, and I love my Henckels 8″ chef’s knife, although I have a discontinued model with a different handle. It’s a workhorse, has only needed professional sharpening once, and is a comfortable grip and weight for my rather small hands. It’s also nearly 60% off right now, a steal at $38.50, so while in past years I’ve steered readers towards the $36 Victorinox 8″ chef’s knife, which America’s Test Kitchen has long recommended, at these price points I’d say go for the Henckels.

The basic knives any home cook must have are a chef’s knife, a paring knife, and a bread (serrated) knife. The bread knife is good for more than just slicing bread – serrated blades are safer for slicing tomatoes, and they’re excellent for chopping chocolate and other hard foods. I have another Henckels four-star model, also eight inches, but the same blade is available with a different handle for just $13. You might look at a 10” blade if you get a lot of large, artisanal loaves. Any strong paring knife will do, such as this OXO 3.5″ paring knife at $15. With a modicum of knife skills, you can tweak and hull strawberries with one of these without any risk to your fingers or waste of fruit. It’s also good for cutting citrus supremes, slicing apples and pears, pitting olives and cherries, and other fine-motor-skills work.

I do have two other knives I use frequently, but they’re not essential for most cooks. One is the santoku, a very sharp knife with a thin edge but wide body that’s ideal for slicing vegetables and hard fruits; I recommend a 7” blade, which you can get in this two-santoku Henckels set for $27.50 and just … I don’t know, regift the 5” version or something, because I can’t see any use for it. The boning knife I own, from Henckels, appears to be discontinued, but there’s another Henckels 5.5″ boning knife for $26 that looks like it has the same blade. A boning knife is ideal for breaking down a whole chicken – it’s substantially cheaper to buy a whole chicken (sometimes called a broiler-fryer, usually 3-5 pounds total weight) and cut it into parts, and you get the bones to make stock – or for deboning other cuts of meat like short ribs. Some folks recommend a flexible blade instead, but I have never used that kind so I can’t give an opinion.

I finally caved and bought a home knife sharpener in 2015, buying this Chef’s Choice Diamond Hone 3 Stage Sharpener, a manual sharpener that turned out to be both easy to use and very effective; I sharpened every knife I own and even a few pairs of scissors, including the kitchen shears some of you saw me using to spatchcock this year’s Thanksgiving turkey.

My pots and pans aren’t a single set any more; I have some remnants from an All-Clad anodized aluminum set I got with rewards points in 2001, but have swapped out certain pieces to get better nonstick (coated) skillets. What you really should get for your loved one (you may include yourself in that category) is a a 12″ Lodge cast-iron skillet, an absolute workhorse that can handle about 90% of what I need from a skillet or a saute pan. I still use a nonstick skillet for egg dishes, and a saucier (sadly one that’s no longer made) for sauces or custards, but the Lodge skillet is past a decade old and just keeps getting better. The work of seasoning them is nowhere near as arduous as you’ve heard.

I got a Lodge 10″ carbon steel skillet for Christmas in 2015, and I love it. It’s not as nonstick as the cast-iron one, which I’ve had for years and thus has built up more of a coating, but for getting a pan rocket-hot quickly and working fast on something small, it’s great. I’ve found that the more I use it, the more resistant the surface becomes to sticking – even eggs – and it is the ideal skillet for making the dramatic, puffy pancake known as a Dutch baby.

If you want to splurge on something, get an enameled cast-iron Dutch oven, great for soups, stews, braises, deep-frying, jam-making, and caramelizing huge batches of onions. Cast-iron doesn’t distribute heat well, but it holds heat for a long time. These pots are heavy, but I use mine for every saucepan duty that doesn’t involve boiling water or cooking grains on their own. They go stove to oven (as do the skillets) and can take the hours of low heating required for a proper braise. I own a Le Creuset that I got on sale at an outlet store because the color was discontinued; if you’re not quite that fortunate, try the 7.5 quart Lodge model, a pretty good value at $60 considering how heavy and durable they are.

I upgraded my stockpot last year with this $30 Excelsteel 16 Quart Stainless Steel Stockpot. I make stock constantly throughout the year; I buy whole chickens, break them down myself, and freeze the carcasses and necks for future stocks. I also made a turkey stock after Thanksgiving with the backbone, neck, and the picked-clean roasted carcass, and the result was so full of gelatin that it was solid at room temperature. (It made an unbelievably rich turkey and soba noodle soup.) I needed a good stockpot since my previous one’s pseudo-nonstick finish had started to fade; this pot is also taller and heavier so it holds the heat in more effectively and I can do a double batch with two chicken carcasses and plenty of aromatics. I usually have to get at the interior bottom with a little Bon Ami, though. It’s also been my go-to pot for sous-vide cooking, since it’s deep enough to hold my circulator.

I don’t own a proper mandolin slicer, but I do pretty well with a handheld mandolin for under $20 that works great for things like root-vegetable chips or thinly slicing onions. I use my digital instant-read thermometer almost every night, and I’ve run through at least three of them over the last ten years. Amazon tells me that I bought my Microplane classic grater in November of 2003, and I’ve had their coarse grater for almost that long. The former is great for zesting citrus fruits or grating nutmeg; the latter is ideal for creating a snowfall of hard cheese over a pasta dish. I now own four silicone baking mats, two of which are amazon brand, now listed at two for $14 but which I got cheaper on Prime Day this summer.

I own two scales – a chef I’m friends with on Twitter made fun of me for this – one, this AWS Digital Pocket Scale for weights up to about 2 kg, which is ideal for precise measurements like grams of coffee (more on that in a moment), and a larger scale that’s long discontinued. This $13 Ozeri scale looks like a more than adequate replacement, measuring up to 12 kg; I rarely need to measure more than about two pounds of anything, maybe a little more for some large-batch baking but that’s about it. You need at least one good scale if you’re serious about baking, though; the best bread and pastry recipes all use grams, not cups or liters. I finally killed my digital candy/frying thermometer this year, replacing it with an old-fashioned, $7.50 analog frying thermometer. I use it for jam, macarons, and my various deep-frying experiments (see the sous-vide discussion below). You absolutely must have one of these to make caramel, any kind of jam or preserves, or true buttercream frosting.

I haven’t included this on past lists, but I do use my OXO potato ricer for mashed potatoes – it’s much better than a so-called “masher,” which is otherwise useful for guacamole or for crushing fruits while making jam but makes lumpy mashed potatoes.

Other things I always appreciate getting or often end up buying for myself: Wooden spatulas (not spoons), silicone spatulas, good (not decorative) metal measuring spoons, Pyrex or similar measuring cups for liquids (never measure liquids in a plastic cup designed for measuring solids).

I don’t have this exact brand/model, but I love having a few silicone ingredient cups in the kitchen. I use one for measuring and pouring out coffee grounds, and I often have another one next to the stove with salt or freshly ground pepper or toasted sesame seeds to add to something right before serving.

Now, for the expensive stuff:

* New for 2017: I finally caved and upgraded my food processor to this 14-cup Cuisinart model, although mine is black and has a slightly different model number (which I can’t find on amazon). You can get a 7-cup model for $100, and it will probably be fine for most home cooks. I have a few recipes I make regularly that require the larger capacity. I have also noticed that the blade on the new model is the sharpest thing I own. I’m actually a little scared of it. But you kind of need a food processor for things like pesto, hummus, mayonnaise, pie or biscuit doughs (if you don’t want to or can’t do them by hand), and my favorite pumpkin pie recipe.

* I’ve gone full geek, getting an Anova sous-vide immersion circulator for $99 (pot not included) and using it frequently for cooking chicken legs, chicken breasts, steak, pork, duck, even salmon. Serious Eats has many recipes for it, and I’ve used their chicken thighs recipe many times, often cooking entire chicken legs that way. (I’ve discovered that, if you can handle some spattering, you can take the drumsticks, pat them dry, then bread and deep-fry them for some of the juiciest fried chicken you’ll ever taste.) I’ve cooked skirt steak, which can be tough even when cooked medium-rare, sous-vide and it melted in our mouths. Sous-vide cooking takes time, and some up-front investment – I caved and bought a FoodSaver vacuum-sealer, although you can do it with zip-top bags too – but once you use it you’ll find it indispensable.

* I have this Vitamix 1782 TurboBlend “food preparing machine” (it’s a blender, stupid), and it’s amazing. I can make smooth vegetable soups with it, no cream required; don’t toss those broccoli stalks, just peel, quarter, and roast them, then blend them with some vegetable stock and season to taste, maybe with some basil oil and toasted pumpkin seeds on top. I used it at Thanksgiving 2015 to make the carrot soup in Hugh Acheson’s The Broad Fork. The blender is down to $328 (from four bills), but that’s too much if you’re just making milkshakes and smoothies (and there is nothing wrong with just making milkshakes and smoothies). You’ll probably be fine with just a basic blender and the food processor.

* I have the 5-quart KitchenAid stand mixer, which is about $270 right now. I kind of wish I had the next model up, mostly for bread-baking, which is still a bit of a chore for this model, but it’s great for everything else – mixing up cookie dough, brownie batter, quick breads, whipped cream, and Italian meringues (for macarons). The pasta-maker attachment is overpriced, but it does the job, and the grinder attachment has been good for me in a handful of uses, especially for turning stale bread into bread crumbs.

* Coffee is my big kitchen weakness, at least when it comes to spending money; I’m fortunate to have a few friends in the industry (whom I met through social media) who work for direct-trade roasters and have tipped me off to good sources of coffee and helped me pay for the gear I own, which is wonderful but expensive. The Baratza Virtuoso burr grinder is the least expensive grinder of its kind and caliber; when my first one had an issue with the motor, I sent a quick video of it jamming to Baratza and had a new machine within two weeks. I do make pour-over coffee at home using this Hario V60 ceramic dripper, but my preference is espresso, for which I use a Rancilio Silvia machine that is a wonder. The boiler is huge, so it bounces back quickly between shots and you can heat up the steam wand before your shots go cold. (You can probably beat that price by $30-40 if you shop around.) If you get your ratios right – for me it’s 17.5 to 19 grams per double shot, depending on the bean and roast – you’ll get great crema, 30-32 grams of output in 25-30 seconds, with almost no bad pulls. I use it every morning and I miss it when I travel. I weigh the beans, grounds, and output on the AWS digital scale I mentioned above, which came recommended by a barista at Lord Windsor Roasters in Long Beach, California.

Good Time.

Good Time is the newest film from the Safdie brothers, whose last project, Heaven Knows What, was based on the memoir by Arielle Holmes, who starred in it and then played the Darth Vader-obsessed character in last year’s American Honey. Good Time is a straight-up heist film, with Robert Pattinson tremendous as the main character, in the vein of a Jim Thompson novel but less successful than Thompson was at tying up the loose ends of an intriguing plot setup. It’s out now on iTunes and amazon.

Pattinson plays Connie Nikas, who robs a bank with his developmentally disabled brother Nick (Benny Safdie), only to have a dye pack in the bag of cash blow up on them in the getaway car. This leads to an extended chase sequence where the brothers are separated and Nick is arrested, leaving Connie free but desperate to free his brother from Rikers, where he knows Benny isn’t likely to survive. Connie’s attempts to pay his brother’s bail drive the rest of the film, aided by the fact that Connie is about half as smart as he thinks he is – I don’t think the word “contingency” would be in his vocabulary.

Pattinson is absolutely great in this, the second excellent performance I’ve seen from him this year along with The Lost City of Z. He’s a magnetic presence, and he plays Connie in a constant manic state that keeps the tension high and also makes it clear to the audience that he’s liable to fly off the handle at the slightest provocation. His concern for his brother is palpable, maybe the one sign of humanity we see in Connie, who otherwise is somewhere on the sociopath-psychopath spectrum and seems destined to get a lot of people maimed or killed. Several critics, including A.O. Scott, accused Safdie of overdoing his portrayal of someone a little slow and a little hard of hearing, but I didn’t think it was exaggerated or offensive in the limited time he’s on screen.

No one else in the movie even seems real, and there’s no depth at all to any character. Pattinson ends up in the apartment of an older woman he met on a hospital bus and befriends her 16-year-old granddaughter, but those two are largely ciphers in the film – you expect a back story, a connection, even a metaphorical one, but there’s none there. I found nothing at all beneath the grimy surface of Good Time; it’s a heist gone wrong story, with a dark-hearted character at the center, who ends up teaming up with a feckless idiot in a last-ditch attempt to raise the funds he needs. Once those two pair up, the energy of the film sputters out, and doesn’t return at all until the final sequence before the credits when the story gets its resolution.

One aspect to recommend the film, beyond Pattinson’s performance: The score from avant-garde composer Daniel Lopatin, who records as Oneohtrix Point Never, is banging, and props up the film in several moments when the engine starts to stall.

Smoke.

I can’t remember where I first heard about Dan Vyleta’s novel Smoke, which I think falls somewhere in between the YA and adult literature genres, but I’d had it on my shopping list for a year when the paperback version appeared in June for under $10. Offering a gothic-themed setting in an alternate reality where sin is revealed as visible Smoke emanating from the sinner’s body, Smoke follows its trio of compelling characters through a physical and metaphysical journey that leads them to question everything they’ve been told by their parents, teachers, and every other moral authorities in their lives.

Set some time in the late 19th century, Smoke begins, as so many young adult books do, in a boarding school, where we meet Thomas, a volatile child with hidden rage and some sort of secret in his family background; and Charlie, his new best friend at school, a more mild-mannered, rule-abiding kid. The school is for children of the upper class, who send their kids there to learn to avoid producing Smoke – easier said than done, as it turns out – as part of the complex social hierarchy that has evolved to protect those who don’t smoke, the gentry, from those who do. The opening scene, which does a wonderful job of pulling you right into the story, sets Thomas up against his antagonist for the remainder of the book, Julius, a Malfoyesque character who runs the school’s unofficial but apparently tolerated inquisitorial squad. What appears at the start to be a conflict among boys, two good against one evil, takes a hard and unexpected right turn when they visit Thomas’s aunt and uncle over the holidays, only to find themselves plunged right into the heart of the mystery of Smoke and on a quest to try and solve it, to save Thomas’s life and perhaps overturn the entire autocracy the aristocrats have constructed with Smoke as their weapon.

Vyleta takes the story from there into some surprising places, and does well to create a panoply of opponents for the two boys and Thomas’s cousin, Lydia, as they work on unraveling the knot of Smoke. There are some agents who are clearly evil, but many others who are working at opposing purposes to the kids for independent, moral, or even banal reasons. Eventually, we need and get a showdown with the worst of the baddies, but it is not central to the book the way it is to so many YA fantasy novels. (I’ve seen it referred to in video games, especially for RPGs, as the “Kill the Big Foozle” plot device.) It’s the other stuff that makes Smoke … um, sizzle, because the varying motivations and understanding of what’s actually going on beneath the skin, literally and metaphorically, open up the characters to natural discussions about right and wrong, moral authority, and historical revisionism. The most obvious target of Vyleta’s satire is the Church – Catholic, Anglican, you pick – although much of Smoke‘s subversive subtext works quite as well when applied to the pernicious effects of classism, environmental racism, or how people respond to totalitarian regimes.

By setting up a multi-threaded conflict, Vyleta set up a delightfully unconventional ending with plenty of tension, including the big fight that some readers will demand, but also resolving other plot threads in unexpected ways, not always thoroughly (by design) but at least hinting at what the End of Smoke might entail for whole groups of people whose identities are tied to the status quo. The book itself was inspired by a line from Dickens’ Dombey and Son, but the vibe of Smoke is much more along the lines of Lev Grossman’s superb trilogy The Magicians: It’s a bit dark, but not overwhelmingly so, and there’s plenty of humor and empathy to balance out the sinister elements. It’s too well-written to call it a true YA novel, but the themes would be appropriate for teens.

Next up: I read James Gould Cozzens’ Pulitzer-winning novel Guard of Honor, and it was just so bad – boring in story and prose – that I’m not going to bother with a full review. I’m now 2/3 of the way through Bessel Van der Kolk’s The Body Keeps the Score: Brain, Mind, and Body in the Healing of Trauma, which is $2 right now for the Kindle.

The Florida Project.

The Florida Project is the best movie I have seen so far in 2017. Granted, it’s December 3rd, and there are many movies left to be seen, but I will go out on a limb and guess that when I’ve seen all the likelies I will still end up with this bold, empathetic film at or very near the top of my list. The movie takes a look at a small bit of the American underclass, delivering a slice-of-life story that becomes so much more because of the living, breathing characters that populate it and the script’s obvious regard for its denizens.

The title is a play on words of sorts; it takes place in the Magic Castle, one of the welfare motels around Walt Disney World, a place where residents pay by the week and often must vacate the premises for one night, moving to a neighboring flophouse, because the apartment’s management won’t let anyone stay long enough to establish residency. (I presume Florida has a consecutive-days threshold where a transient guest becomes a tenant and acquires additional rights.) The property manager is Bobby (Willem Dafoe), who plays an important role in the lives of the two central characters, single mother Halley (Bria Vinaite) and her daughter Moonee (Brooklynn Prince), as they live through a period of a few weeks at the start of Moonee’s summer break from school.

The movie shifts focus frequently, but the bulk of the story is told from the eyes of the kids, Moonee, her friend Scout, and new friend Jancy, with whom the first two get acquainted when they are caught spitting on Jancy’s mother’s car – because that’s the sort of thing you do all day when there’s no school, little money, and lots of time to fill. The three head off on daily adventures in the neighborhood, which is mostly filled with other low-end housing complexes and tacky stores selling Disney paraphernalia, finding trouble when it doesn’t find them first.

The struggles of the adults in their lives play out right in front of them, including the central struggle, paying the rent. Much of what happens in The Florida Project mirrors the problems Matthew Desmond covered in his Pulitzer Prize-winning book Evicted: paying the rent means working, which means someone has to watch the kids, which either costs money or means leaning on neighbors, friends, even strangers, so some people don’t work. Halley is an unemployed stripper whom we see selling knockoff perfumes to tourists for cash and who eventually (and inevitably) starts turning tricks to pay the rent, which precipitates the crisis that turns this movie into a routine slice-of-life piece into a story with an arc and a conclusion. Her background is never discussed, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to assume she’s a victim of something traumatic, especially given her disproportionate responses to even minor disappointments. Halley feels like a fictional incarnation of Sen. Orrin Hatch’s “people who won’t help themselves,” but while she’s unsympathetic on the screen, it’s also quite easy to see how she could feel thoroughly trapped by her environment. There’s no path for her out of poverty, and she’s basically one mistake away from losing her home and/or her kid.

Moonee is the real heart of this movie, and Prince, who was six at the time of filming, gives one of the best performances of the year. She’s mischievous, vivacious, and perceptive, adept at manipulating adults and navigating their world, often tumbling out adult words that you don’t expect to hear from a six-year-old’s mouth. She’s the ringleader of the three kids, and is almost totally unflappable, even when crises seem to unfold around her; when they cause real trouble, she’s the one trying to come up with the cover story. You can see glimpses of the impact this life is having on her, but she’s also still at an age where she’s resilient to setbacks, and her bond with Bobby, while seldom directly referenced, is one of the best emotional threads in the story. (Prince, who reminds me a bit of English actress Honeysuckle Weeks, and her two young co-stars did an adorable interview about making the film with Variety.)

Dafoe also delivers the best performance I’ve seen from him, even though Bobby is probably a bit too good to be true – he’s likely poorly paid, constantly dealing with tenants who are late on the rent or causing trouble, and often doesn’t have the money to undertake needed repairs, but he’s still got a heart of gold, especially where Moonee is concerned. The scene where he sees a non-resident adult talking to a group of the project’s kids as they play is one of the film’s most gripping moments, giving insight into Bobby’s character and setting his temperament apart from the more labile personalities living in the building.

Director/co-writer Sean Baker employs some subtle perspective shifts, some just varying the distance to the characters, but getting particular value from dropping the camera to the kids’ level even when the adults are the center of the scene. The Florida Project would be utterly joyless to watch without the kids – even though it would be true to life – and Baker uses the kids’ storyline both to provide some needed relief from the depressing reality of Halley’s life and to show how the wonder of childhood isn’t tied to wealth or possessions, but to time and that sense of adventure. That contrast between Moonee’s view of the world and Halley’s parallels the other, unspoken contrast between the story in this movie and the fantasy world in the shadow of which the film occurs. The Magic Castle may not quite be the Unhappiest Place on Earth, but it feels close when we see it through Halley’s eyes. The movie ends on a perfect note, as well, as the climax itself, which was not just inevitable but which I would say was the only possible outcome of what had come before in the script, gives way to an utterly priceless concluding sequence. Yes, we know it’s temporary, and we all know what will come afterward, but for that one last moment, we see the characters leave the world behind and run for joy.

Stick to baseball, 12/2/17.

My Insider post on Shohei Ohtani is finally up, with a scouting report compiled from aggregating opinions of multiple scouts who’ve seen him hit and pitch, and thoughts on what MLB’s rigging of the rules against him really signals. Between the lack of significant activity in the hot stove and the fact that I got quite sick in the middle of the week, that’s been my only baseball content since Thanksgiving. I did hold a Klawchat on Thursday.

For Paste, I reviewed the train game Whistle Stop, a mid-weight title that’s among the best new board games I’ve played this year. My ranking of the top ten games of 2017 will go up the week of December 10th. EDIT: My first piece for Ars Technica is up now – a look at a beta version of Catan VR, an upcoming digital port of the global bestseller from Asmodee Digital.

I’ve taken an unintentional hiatus from my free email newsletter, but will resume this week. The holiday, PAX Unplugged, and that virus I had have all conspired against me, I swear.

Smart Baseball is out now in hardcover, e-book, and audio formats, perfect for your holiday shopping! Buy one or forty copies, your call.

And now, the links…

Music update, November 2017.

Solid enough month for new tracks, including a bunch of early releases from albums due out in the first two months of next year (which might presage a poor December for new releases). I’ll do my annual music rankings, songs and albums, after the winter meetings, so we do get a few more weeks in for new songs to appear.

If you can’t see the Spotify widget below, you can access the playlist directly here.

The Wombats – Lemon to a Knife Fight. A new Wombats song is an automatic inclusion for me. I loved Glitterbug and am thoroughly excited for the new album.

Hatchie – Sure. Noisey called Hatchie’s music “shoegaze with a dream pop edge;” I think there’s more dream pop here, with a very strong early Cranberries vibe. She has released two singles so far, this song (my favorite of the two) and “Try.”

Shy Technology – Déjà Vu. Shy Technology made my top 100 in 2015 with “High Strung,” and this lead single from their next album provides more of what I liked from that earlier single, which has a singer-songwriter vibe with the fuller arrangement of a large band. They remind me of tons of bands I liked in the early mid-90s, including James, Ben Folds Five, Better than Ezra, and Our Lady Peace.

Django Django – In Your Beat. We have a release date – January 26th – for the Mercury Prize-nominated British act’s third album. Marble Skies.

Van William – The Country. Dodgers fan & WATERS lead singer/songwriter Van Pierszalowski – yep, still have to check that spelling every single time, because of AJ Pierzynski – will release his first solo album, Countries, on January 19th.

Gillbanks – A Walk in the Park. A new London-based quintet with just four one-off singles to their name, Gillbanks reminds me a bit of Gardens & Villa if they’d gotten stoned and listened to Disintegration on repeat.

Ride – Pulsar. Ride went 21 years between albums, released Weather Diaries in June, and now are already back with a new, non-album track, this one in a similar vein, shoegaze but with clear vocals mixed more towards the front. The lads are aging quite nicely.

Thrice – Red Telephone. Not technically a new song, “Red Telephone” is a B-side from their 2009 album Beggars and was just re-released ahead of their mini-tour with Circa Survive.

The Fratellis – The Next Time We Wed. It’s no “Chelsea Dagger,” but it’s certainly catchy in more of a pop/rock way and less of a “we’re all drunk at 1:30 am” fashion.

Black Honey – Dig. Black Honey, an indie quartet from Brighton, England, showed up twice on my top 100 last year with poppy tracks that reminded me of vintage Velocity Girl; this song is slower, almost mournful, although it sneaks up on you with a heavy guitar riff about 2/3 of the way through.

WAVVES with Culture Abuse – Up and Down. WAVVES’ Nathan Williams is one of the most prolific writers in music today; I swear he releases a new song somewhere every couple of weeks. This new track, with Bay Area punksters Culture Abuse (of whom I’d never heard of until this song appeared), sounds quite a bit like WAVVES’ most recent album, You’re Welcome.

HAERTS – No Love for the Wild. HAERTS put out a great EP in 2013, a strong album with those same four songs in 2014, and since then it’s been just random singles. This song came out in May, and there’s another one, “The Way,” due out next Friday (the 8th), so I’m hopeful we’ll get a full record some time early next year. It’s long overdue.

The Big Moon – Love in the 4th Dimension. The Big Moon’s album, of which this is the title track, was nominated for the Mercury Prize this year, but lost out to R&B/electronic singer-songwriter Sampha. I think I like the Big Moon’s sound more than their individual songs, as the album is consistent but could use some stronger hooks.

Stars – Hope Avenue. Stars had the #40 song on the first real year-end song ranking I ever posted on this site, my top 40 songs of 2012, with “Hold On When You Get Love and Let Go When You Get It.” Their latest album, There is No Love in Fluorescent Light, doesn’t have anything so catchy, but has several … um, “pleasant” sounds like a backhanded insult, but I don’t mean it that way. This was my favorite song from the record.

Quicksand – Fire this Time. Is this the fifth straight playlist with a Quicksand song on it? Their comeback album Interiors feels like a lock to make my ranking of my favorite albums of 2017, however long I choose to make the list this year.

Corrosion of Conformity – Cast the First Stone. Legit thought these guys had broken up a decade ago … which they did, and then came back with a different lineup for albums in 2012 and 2014 that I missed entirely. I really remember CoC mostly from their earliest work, which had a stronger hardcore influence, while this is more of an aggressive stoner-metal track, like QotSA with a hint of Pantera.

Joe Satriani – Thunder High on the Mountain. I admit to being a guitar geek back in the day; I absolutely wore out Steve Vai’s Passion and Warfare. Satriani had his moments too, including “Summer Song,” but that whole subgenre of music fell out of favor pretty quickly with the expansion of extreme metal on one side and of garbage rap-metal demon spawn on the other. This song, which features two distinct movements of great guitar hooks, is a nice throwback to the heyday of instrumental shredder albums, with a nice nod to the heavier style more in vogue today.

Godflesh – Post Self. I have a strong memory of seeing a capsule review of Godflesh’s seminal 1989 debut album, Streetcleaner, that borrowed a line from Poltergeist: “Godflesh knows what scares you.” Often lumped erroneously in with the contemporaneous grindcore movement, Godflesh is a founder of the subgenre of industrial metal, and if their music brings “teh fear” it’s because of their repetition of droning phrases and harsh percussive sounds. This is the first song and title track from their latest album, released on November 17th.

Tribulation – The Lament. This Swedish melodic death-metal band’s 2015 album Children of the Night took the group out of the generic extreme-metal sounds of their first two albums and brought far more of a classic-rock vibe, with obvious influences from Judas Priest and Black Sabbath, as well as some thrash riffing and a generally stronger sense of musical proficiency. This song rocks in a way that even a lot of truly melodic songs in this area don’t; it’s like a great driving song that happens to have death growls instead of the high-wire vocals of a Halford or a Dickinson. It’s a good sign for their upcoming fourth album, Down Below, due out on January 26th.

Lady Bird.

Greta Gerwig’s directorial debut, Lady Bird, has been in the news this week as it set a record on Rotten Tomatoes for the most positive (“fresh”) reviews received without a single negative (“rotten”) one, 184 such reviews and counting. It’s a coming-of-age story, incredibly well-acted throughout, with a number of truly hilarious moments in it, enough that I’d join the chorus (if my review counted) of positive reviews … but the movie has its flaws too, particularly in the way the adult characters are written, as if Gerwig, who also wrote the script, put her primary efforts in the teenagers at the heart of the film.

Lady Bird (Saoirse Ronan) is Christine McPherson, who has chosen “Lady Bird” as her nickname and repeatedly crosses out or corrects Christine whenever it’s used to refer to her, a high school senior in Sacramento who comes from “the wrong side of the tracks,” a family of four living in a somewhat run-down house and dealing with the economic insecurity of many Americans in the lower and lower middle classes. Her father’s company keeps laying people off; her mother is working double shifts as a psychiatric nurse; her brother and his wife live in the house as well, both working grocery store jobs despite their college degrees. Lady Bird yearns to break free of the social and financial constraints of her life, to go to college in the Northeast, to experience more than her small* town can give her, so she embarks on a number of small misadventures while also secretly applying to prestigious east coast schools. (*Small is her perception; the Sacramento MSA has 2.5 million people, and the scene near the end where a college student from the east coast has never heard of it is rather ridiculous.)

Ronan is marvelous in the title role, and I would be shocked if she weren’t nominated for Best Actress at the Oscars and just about every other awards ceremony for this year. The script gives her the best material by a wide margin, including the quick emotional shifts of adolescence, and Ronan manages to inhabit this volatile world completely. Lady Bird chafes under any restraints, whether it’s her Catholic high school, the social boundaries of teenaged life, or her domineering mother. Ronan manages to inform her character with the optimism that is part of Lady Bird’s nature and allows her to succeed in spite of all of these obstacles without turning the part into a saccharine caricature.

Her mother, played by Laurie Metcalf, is really problematic – and not because the character isn’t realistic. She’s controlling, narcissistic, overly critical, manipulative, even vindictive. She also reveals in a line that appears to be a throwaway that her own mother was “an abusive alcoholic.” She herself is clearly a victim of trauma, and tries to control her environment – including her daughter – as an ineffective coping mechanism. She obsesses over clothes being put away, over Lady Bird using a second towel after her shower, over her grammar or spelling in a handwritten note, over anything that threatens the precise calibration of her life. The writing and the performance are strong and consistent enough that it’s then hard to accept moments near the very end of the film where she tries to show her love for her daughter; they seem to come from a totally different character. Metcalf delivers the best performance of all of the actors playing adults in the film, but I found Tracy Letts, playing Lady Bird’s father, more compelling because his character doesn’t have the improbable personality split of the mother.

The adults, though, are the film’s biggest problem. Lady Bird has the Dawson’s Creek habit of reversing the kids and the grown-ups: The teenagers are the ones who have it all figured out and the adults are the ones still screwing things up or just generally not understanding. It’s truer of the side characters, but it doesn’t do the central character any favors to have her appear more insightful than every adult she encounters. The kids receive the best dialogue and the more accurate worldview – other than Kyle, one of the boys Lady Bird dates, who is busy fighting the battle of who could care less – and in many cases, like Lady Bird, her best friend Juliet, or Danny, another boy she dates, they’re truly three-dimensional and believable, to the point where you could build new stories around any of them (although Juliet does fall into the Fat Best Friend cliché).

The movie soars on the performance and writing of its lead, enough to overcome some of the more hackneyed elements of her environment, and I think that’s why it managed to set that Rotten Tomatoes record – even if you identify the flaws in the script, the core of the movie is so good that it more than mitigates the negatives. Watching this precocious but naïve character navigate her last year of high school and deal with an emotionally abusive mother while stretching for an unlikely escape across the country is more than enough to make Lady Bird worth recommending. I may just be outside the consensus that this is among the year’s very best films.

Klawchat 11/30/17.

My latest boardgame review for Paste covers the mid-weight train game Whistle Stop, which is one of my favorite new games of 2017.

Keith Law: A loaf of bread, a quart of milk, a stick of butter, and Klawchat.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Can you do something to at least warm up this Ice Cold Stove season?
Keith Law: One agent speculated to me that teams were waiting till December 1st to try to cool off prices for early signings. I have no idea if that’s true, but I’m at least hoping that tomorrow we’ll see something.

Drew: What would you rather, vote for Curt Schilling into the HOF or eat an entire Fruit Cake
Keith Law: I’d vote for Schilling, although I think at the moment he might not make my top 10 (it’s at least debatable). There are maybe 15 guys on the ballot I’d put in, so I’ve had to leave candidates toward the bottom of the list off – I’ve said, for example, that because Manny Ramirez failed two PED tests, I wouldn’t put him in my top 10 right now. If the logjam is ever cleared, he’d eventually get on the ballot.

Lilith: Taylor Trammell or Jesus Sanchez? Who do you prefer and why?
Keith Law: Trammell’s the better all-around player. Sanchez has more hit tool, which of course is the one that trumps them all, but I think I’d rather gamble on Trammell’s total upside.

Kevin: Learn anything new from your Thanksgiving cooking this year? Loved the periscope chat btw, first time I’ve logged on for that.
Keith Law: I went mostly with dishes I’d made before. Smaller gathering this year, and I just wasn’t up for my usual extravaganza.

Jim: Hi Keith, I’ve seen you talk in the past about Ohtani not being a major league regular level hitter, but I’m wondering what specifically is the issue. Is it the hit tool? Or is the power not what it appears to be?
Keith Law: It’s the very long swing and poor contact rates. Then he’s going to come here and play 40% of the time, or less. People who think he’s going to be a legit two-way player are wishcasting, or just pushing clickbait.

Jerome: What do you think of the Dbacks trade for Boxberger?
Keith Law: Fine reliever. Taylor’s a prospect, though, no-brainer for the Rays for two years of control.

Kevin: Do you expect Michael Baez to appear in your Top 100 next year?
Keith Law: I haven’t done any sort of preliminary rankings yet.

Paul: Does Baez have more upside than Gore at this point?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

leisurefriar: Where is Ohtani going to end up?
Keith Law: I have no idea. Really, no idea at all. When it happens, we’ll discuss it, but I have only asked people what they think of him as a player, not where they think he’ll land.

Daniel: Do you see Chance Adams or Justus Sheffield making the majors in 2018? Could you provide some detail if yes.
Keith Law: Adams finished in AAA; there is no doubt he’ll see the majors this year if he’s healthy at all. Sheffield is the better prospect by quite a bit, though, and if they need a real starter, he’s the one to recall.

Chris: Your thoughts on collecting baseball cards and other baseball memorabilia? Also, do you have any special pieces of memorabilia from your career working in baseball?
Keith Law: Haven’t collected cards when I was a kid. Not a memorabilia guy at all.

derek: If the Giants trade for Stanton, what’s a realistic return for the Marlins? And as a Giants fan, should I be terrified?
Keith Law: One rumor had the Giants taking the entire contract. That should terrify you. It could hamstring their team for a decade.

CJ: Is there any reason a team shouldn’t do it’s due diligence on Ohtani, filling out the questionnaire, etc.?
Keith Law: No reason, but I know several teams have chosen not to participate.

Alex P: Hey Keith, thanks for the chat. How far do you see the Phillies form being a playoff team? And how would you balance their spending on FA’s vs allowing for development?
Keith Law: Two to three years. They should definitely be targeting FA this winter – and Ohtani, while a longshot since they’re NL, would be a perfect fit. They have nothing like him (as a pitcher) in the system, and he’s the same age as much of their roster anyway.

Dutch: Ketel Marte’s mini-breakout last year legitimate? Had great ABs in the playoffs. Kinda backed up his strong walk and K rates.
Keith Law: I’m in.

Mike Fichera: Is Dom Smith better on defense and with the bat than he’s shown? weight concerns aside.
Keith Law: Yes. Tiny sample. Obviously needs to maintain conditioning.

Sam: Some of the stove being so cold has to be because teams are waiting to see on Otani, right?
Keith Law: MLB sources indicated to me that they don’t believe that is true.

Josh in DC: I read something about Matt Lauer’s last contract renewal — that he cashed in on the fact that viewers of morning shows don’t like change. Is there any reason to believe that *sports* fans are more interested in watching the same guys year after year, that (separate from winning and losing) attendance and TV ratings might be correlated with roster continuity?
Keith Law: It’s been a while since I saw fresh research on this, but my understanding is that attendance, ratings, and revenues correlate with winning, often with a one-year lag, and nothing else.

Mike: Seeing a lot of talk on twitter about Ohtani’s speed. Some people are saying it’s somewhere between 70-80. How insane would that be for a pitcher or even a DH?
Keith Law: I had some idiots – and I mean that in the not-nicest possible way – saying it was wrong, or impossible, on Twitter last night. Multiple scouts have told me they personally clocked him under 4 seconds, one under 3.9 and the rest just above that, and that includes a time in August when he was, in theory, hobbled by the ankle/quad and still got down the line in under 4. He’s an 80 runner. Anyone who tells you otherwise should be dismissed.

Tyler: If you’re Alex Anthopoulos, do you make a splashy trade or signing this offseason to get the focus back on the team instead of the cheating scandal?
Keith Law: That’s a really terrible way to run a team.

Fred: What advice would you give to a mid 30s person looking into changing professions and starting from scratch?
Keith Law: Acquire a critical skill that should directly lead to employment.

Ricky H. : Ronnie Dawson had a big 2nd half in the Astros system. Back on track as a future regular?
Keith Law: Was he ever on track to be a regular? He was too old for low-A and spent the whole year there save 13 games.

Andy: Do you see the White Sox ultimately trading Jose Abreu this offseason? Your opinion on what teams are the best fit/have the pieces to make sense for the White Sox?
Keith Law: They should but the market might be thin, given all the 1b/dh types in free agency & also in the trade market.

Chuck: Would you vote for Edgar if you had a ballot?
Keith Law: I tweeted this on November 20th: “I don’t get one till next winter, but if I had a vote: Mussina, Bonds, Clemens, Vlad, Edgar, Chipper, Thome, Rolen, Schilling, Walker.”

Anthony: I recall you saying you had family (parents perhaps?) that lived in the ashburn va area…having just moved to ashburn, do you know of any good restaurants or food spots in the area? it doesnt seem like a big foodie town.
Keith Law: Voltaggio’s new place at One Loudoun is supposed to be pretty good – i went when it was Family Meal, but he’s since switched the concept. Also some good spots in Leesburg, including King Street Coffee & Doner Bistro.

Dutch: I can’t figure out for the life of me why Daniels would rather let Profar rot on the bench or in the minors than cash him in. They have to trade him right?
Keith Law: They might not be getting reasonable offers.

Jock: As a long time A’s fan, I remain somewhat puzzled by their selection of Austin Beck in that he seems the opposite of the kind of player that they usually target in the 1st round. What do you think of him as a player and do you see his selection as a sign that the A’s are shifting to an emphasis on more athletic/higher upside players. Thanks!
Keith Law: They are never getting a player like Beck – huge tools, athleticism, raw but with star upside – in free agency, and even in trade that’s hard to get. You have to have something huge to deal, and right now I don’t think they have anyone who’d get a return like him, or like a Gleyber or an Eloy or a Sheffield/Frazier package. So shooting for the moon made sense, even with the huge risk; I might not have done it because Beck’s hit tool really concerned me, but that’s strictly a subjective matter.

Zo: How important is having managerial experience. Do you think Boone or Beltran would hurt the yankees in the short run?
Keith Law: MLB managers without any managerial experience at any level have fared very poorly as a group. It’s a bad strategy, and we all know it, and teams keep doing it anyway.

Willie G: Rangers fans are growing impatient with Nomar Mazara, who has been below average the past two years and has seemed to have stagnated. Is he someone you think can be a core piece for a team going forward, or is his long-term role as a platoon or role player?
Keith Law: This is truly an ex post criticism, but I wonder now if promoting him so quickly in 2016 has hurt his development at the plate. Now the situation reminds me of Jose Guillen, who went pretty much from A-ball to the majors, and ended up a fine player, but never developed his approach at all and didn’t reach his ceiling. Again, I didn’t say so at the time, so this is strictly hindsight.

Josh in DC: I’m sure you’ve answered this before, but what you would do with Ohtani (if he actually can hit and pitch at a very level, that is)? How much would you worry about the injury risks from various baseball activities?
Keith Law: I have a long column on him running on Saturday. He’s a starting pitcher who can swing it a little. He is not going to be a starting pitcher and a regular position player on his days “off.”

Patty O’Furniture: Would a Matt Adams for Mike Fiers deal make sense?
Keith Law: I think Atlanta has plenty of guys who can deliver what Fiers would deliver but for the minimum salary.

Dutch: Fair to say Snell has #2 upside? FB and CB look sick. Even saw him get some whiffs on his changeup.
Keith Law: Yes, that’s fair.

Matt: Now that Tillerson and his surprising competence looks to be on the way out, are we in for a very long 11 months until change can actually be voted in?
Keith Law: It’s kind of appalling how mercurial these cabinet decisions have been. Pruitt’s reign of error might be the worst of all, with many Republicans weighing in on how disastrous his decisions have been, but if they won’t vote Democrat or just stay home, it’s not going to change until 2018 or more likely 2020.

Daniel: Will Mike Mussina make the Hall of Fame?
Keith Law: Eventually yes. Not this year.

Stan: Albertos or De la Cruz? (Or neither…)
Keith Law: Albertos. Alzolay is their best pitching prospect. De la Cruz has no track record of health.

Henry: Is this the year Xander Bogaerts hits 30 homers?
Keith Law: Let’s get his hands healthy again and say 20 homers.

Sam: One of the interesting points from Rany Jazayerli’s piece on the Bill James/WAR debacle was about how FIP fails to capture that some pitchers are worse out of the stretch, making hit clustering more a function of skill rather than luck. Is there any truth to that?
Keith Law: Most pitchers are slightly worse out of the stretch. Pitchers who are drastically worse out of the stretch tend to be either relievers or 4A guys. If you can’t pitch with men on base, it’s a tough road. So while FIP-based WAR does have issues, that’s not a significant one.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Jim Bowden said Ohtani is going to hit .300 with 30 HRs and win 15 games…
Keith Law: Yeah.

Jim: Kind of amazing that the Braves made out with AA here. What do you think he’ll do as first order of business there? He keeps saying the defense is his biggest concern and that seems to me that Kemp AND Markakis are goners.
Keith Law: I think he’ll focus on using the prospect inventory – still good, just not what it was, not #1 overall any more – to upgrade the major league roster. He’s of the mindset that you keep the absolute best prospects and trade the rest. That’s what they need now anyway. That could mean a top-line starter, a good corner outfielder (or two), or a real third baseman.

Ukulele Sue: Elvis Andrus is due $58M over four years after 2018. Yes, he’s had two good years in a row, but wouldn’t it be a mistake for him to opt out after 2018 and try to get more money, given how loaded the free agent class will be?
Keith Law: FA class will be loaded, but not loaded with shortstops. I think he’d be smart to opt out.

James: How close are Santana and A. Jones to getting your vote? Do you think they’ll at least hang around for a couple of years?
Keith Law: No on Johan. Andruw is probably a no, but near the border for me. Guy was basically finished at 30, and if you consider character at all, he loses a lot of points there too.

Bob: Matt Carpenter is a way better hitter than Eric Hosmer, right?
Keith Law: Yes.

Ben: I sous vide a brisket for Thanksgiving using Kenji Lopez’s recipe. Wow, was it good.
Keith Law: Sous vide is a game-changer. I didn’t use it this holiday, but that was mostly because I didn’t cook meat besides the turkey itself, which I spatchcocked and roasted.

Jim Nantz: Quick thoughts on the Doug Fister signing?
Keith Law: Yawn.

Arnold: Juiced baseballs aside, is MLB concerned about hgh? Versions now get out of your system in 72 hours. Take it after a Thursday night, clean by Monday…
Keith Law: Available research found no benefit to using HGH in men under age 50. It’s not magic.

RSO: Manny Machado for Gleyber Torres who says no?
Keith Law: I’m assuming the Orioles would, but that’s actually not a bad deal for them. Six years of a plus regular at short for one year of Machado? You ask for more, but it’s not a crazy deal.
Keith Law: Assuming Gleyber’s elbow is fine, and it should be.

Chris J: Any new (to you) boardgames you discovered and enjoyed at PAX Unplugged?
Keith Law: Majesty, Istanbul dice game, Ticket to Ride France, Ex Libris (review coming), Evolution app/video game, Seikatsu.

Jshep12: Is it Ohtani or Otani or O’tani?
Keith Law: Ohtani.

Jeff: Do you see the things Matt Lauer and Charlie Rose were accused of happening at ESPN?
Keith Law: We are prohibited from discussing internal company matters. I say this all the time, and people still ask.

Birddog: Highest probability of success: Chance Sisco, Austin Hays or Anthony Satander?
Keith Law: Sisco. Big positional advantage.

PHM: Better bat: Bregman or Devers? Thanks!
Keith Law: Hit only? Bregman.

Rahn: Presented for your comment: Huntington said last night the Pirates are hoping to show Otani that the team is a great option for him.
Keith Law: Good for them. Won’t happen, but still, good for them.

Raphael: Legitimate question: is it really so wrong to disqualify known PED users from the HOF (either by positive tests or other evidence like the Biogenesis case)? The media and generic public may exaggerate the effects of them, but they’re strictly against the rules and have a known profound effect on being able to recover from injuries and work outs quicker. (Though I’m definitely not advocating the amphetamines users be treated any differently, just that I don’t get the outrage over disqualifying known rule breakers)
Keith Law: So take Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle, and Babe Ruth out. Also, amphetamines are PEDs. Saying otherwise is a false dichotomy.

Jackie: What went wrong with Mark Appel? Is he still salvageable?
Keith Law: Finished the year hurt. Hasn’t been the same since the half-year in Lancaster and changes Houston made to speed him up to the plate. There’s a causation question – did delivery changes wreck his command? lead to injury? or all separate? – but those are factors.

Brian: Trade: Padres trade Hand, Quantrill, Arias, De Los Santos To NYY for Gleybar. Who says no?
Keith Law: Yankee fan, eh?

Joe: Made no sense to protect Loaisiga, right? Only chance he has to make the majors is as a reliever now since he will run out of options if he continues to develop as a starter.
Keith Law: He would have been taken.

Chris: Am I insane to argue that categorizing pitchers as “closers” is ridiculous? People treat a pitcher that “closes” a game almost as a separate position, and teams not only sign players accordingly, but play them as such. If you’re the best pitcher coming out of the bullpen, you should be pitching in the highest-leveraged situations regardless of inning. It’s what a little-league coach does, so why should MLB be any different? I hear this non-stop in Chicago about replacing Wade Davis as a “closer” and it drives me crazy. [end of rant]
Keith Law: Relievers are just failed starters. I know that sounds harsh, but it’s true: If you can throw even 150 major-league average innings, you’re going to start. You can have a hierarchy in your bullpen, but this elevation of the Proven Closer is how we end up with stupidity like Trevor Hoffman’s 28 WAR likely entering the Hall of Fame.

JPro06: When is/are you doing your top prospect lists next? End of the year or just before the season next year?
Keith Law: Late January. Same every year.

Rob: Do you think Robert Stephenson could stick in the Reds rotation this year and be successful? You were one of the first writers to say that he was a bullpen guy.
Keith Law: Don’t think I said that. Has three pitches to start, longtime trouble with command/control.

Giants Fan: How much credence do you give to the theory that stitching on the balls made WS pitching so ineffective?
Keith Law: Don’t believe it. The balls were not manufactured separately for the World Series (or the playoffs).

John: Why are voters and fans so eager to get behind closers for the HOF, but are so reluctant to get behind DHs? Someone like Edgar provides almost 100% of the value of a HOF position player, but Hoffman provides 50% of the value of a fringe HOF starting pitcher.
Keith Law: Because SAVEZ.

Chris: grimes vs. chvrches? who do you draft first?
Keith Law: Grimes has more upside. CHVRCHES higher floor. I’ll take Grimes.

Wally: It feels to me that the players, while paid well on a societal scale, don’t get enough of the total revenue pie in MLB. Do you think that’s right, and if yes and you had the ability to run the MLBPA, what would you do to address it?
Keith Law: Push for higher minimum salary, fight for protections for players from service-time manipulation to delay free agency or arbitration.

Andy: Where do you stand on the Bill James WAR argument about taking actual wins into account? I’m worried that it goes down a GWRBI rabbit hole pretty quickly.
Keith Law: That’s a hard no for me. Win Shares are dead. Leave them in the ground.

EL: Can Jose Miguel Fernandez help a team? I was surprised the Dodgers released him.
Keith Law: It was put him on the 40-man or release him. He should get a solid deal somewhere, probably a major league contract from somebody. Just no room on LAD’s roster, I guess.

Josh L: How hard will it be for the Braves to move Matt Kemp? Similar to the Upton/Kimbrel move a few years back? Does he have any value in the NL any longer?
Keith Law: Kemp has no value, period. I would release him.

Rob: Would you trade Raisel Iglesias if you were running the Reds at this stage of the rebuild? He should be able to net a nice return but they do not have many good bullpen options.
Keith Law: Yes. Unnecessary for rebuilding team to have a good ‘closer.’

Chris: Do I need to spend $1000 on a new, super-automatic espresso machine? i’m ok at the $500 mark, but I don’t want to sacrifice too much in taste or other things (ease of use, cleaning, etc.). It’s just for 2 people too.
Keith Law: I would not, and I love espresso and the machine I own.

Scott: What do you suggest to get away from the depressing crush of the news cycle? I enjoy using Twitter, but it also gives a lot of anxiety.
Keith Law: Get out of the house. Seriously – it’s easier to ignore the world, especially the online world, if you’re out doing stuff.

Drew: As the son of a lifelong foreign service officer, I can tell you that Tillerson has been far from competent. The State Department is in the worst shape I’ve seen it in 35 years, and officers current and retired are despondent with what Tillerson and Trump have done.
Keith Law: Thanks. So State is just like every other department, then. Yay us. Oh, and we’ve alienated most of our strongest allies, including the UK just this week over some retweets of fake news.

Marc: Will Xander’s lack of exit velocity mean he won’t get to 20 HRs?
Keith Law: This is exit velocity obsession. If your hands are injured, your exit velocity will be down.

Eric: Mussina not in the hall is my go to complaint about hall voters? is there another player that deserves or deserved enshrinement that voters didn’t get behind?
Keith Law: He is the best non-Bonds/Clemens player on the ballot. And those two guys have their baggage; he doesn’t.

Jason: Re: Ohteni, what if he insisted on being given 300 PA as a DH or position player? Even though you might not want to use him as a two-way player, he may still choose his team based on that criteria.
Keith Law: Are you willing to lie? Tell him he’ll get 500 AB, then change your mind in March? Such agreements are unenforceable.

Rahn: GM hat time: Should the Pirates deal Cole and/or McCutchen before the season begins to maximize value and recognize they’re in a phase of rebuild?
Keith Law: I would, and included both in my ‘trade market overview’ piece last month.

Andrew: Any thoughts on PAX Unplugged? How was the experience?
Keith Law: Had a blast. Brought my daughter to Kids’ Day on Sunday, and she didn’t want to leave (the show was closing, so we had no choice). Absolutely planning to attend again next year.

Matt: So what are the Yankees doing? It seems like they canned Girardi for the sake of canning him w/o giving nary a thought to whom the new manager will be.
Keith Law: I would agree with that outside assessment.

Mike (Toronto): Were/are you a fan of R.E.M.? With Automatic for the People’s 25th anniversary this month, I just wondered. I think they’re among the most important American bands ever (not that I’m trying to sway you).
Keith Law: Peak REM, yes, up to and including that album. Falloff from there was quick. Their 1980s output, which didn’t sell quite as well, was tremendous and I think remains influential today.

Brett: Are you of the opinion that sports gambling should be legal in all 50 states?
Keith Law: I don’t have a yes/no answer to that. I think such activities should generally be legal – gambling, prostitution, marijuana – but that they create externalities that require regulation. Gambling, especially casinos, leads to rises in bankruptcies, domestic violence, and other crimes. Who pays those costs?

Joe : Can the royals contend next year?
Keith Law: I can’t see how.

Ed: Love all of your work Keith. Is Hudson Potts being overlooked as a prospect ? At 18 he had the best fielding % in the MWL and clearly was able to make adjustments at the plate in the second half. What should we look for in High A this year as the numbers will be inflated in the Cal league? Increased patience at the plate?
Keith Law: Solid prospect but fielding percentage is beyond worthless for minor leaguers.

Todd: Was at the Braves season ticket deal today where McGuirk talked about a “Rogue Employee in the Dominican” today. I asked to be sure I heard it right but that’s what I heard. Thoughts ?
Keith Law: Someone needs to ask McGuirk what he knew and when he knew it.

Ryan: Would you recommend Ex Libris for fans of heavier games?
Keith Law: It’s medium-weight. I like it quite a bit.

Justin R: Wouldn’t the best Red Sox move be to find a low-cost 1B with some power and assume Benitendi/Betts/Boegaarts hit for more power in 2018?
Keith Law: Hosmer is a terrible fit for Boston; they need power and he has never slugged .500.

JR: I know there’s still a month left (which means 20 more books for you to read), but what were the 3-5 most enjoyable books you read this year?
Keith Law: I Contain Multitudes. Evicted. Betaball. The Erstwhile (part 2 of The Vorrh trilogy). The Fifth Season. Mister Monkey. The Underground Railroad. Not a Scientist. The Last Days of Night. The Cooperstown Casebook.

Justin R: What would be your ideal tax plan for the US?
Keith Law: I would prefer to see tax reform that simplifies the tax code, reducing the government’s cost to collect it and society’s cost to calculate and file it, rather than this current bill that is a giant sop to corporate and wealthy donors and that ignores the recent history of such tax cuts. (The GOP is tweeting how the JFK tax cut boosted the economy. They’re full of shit: The top marginal rate was 91% before that tax cut. It’s 39.6% today. That makes all the difference.)

Matt: What about cortisone shots? Players take them all the time yet no one says anything. It’s a steroid.
Keith Law: Of course. It’s a legal steroid. Is LASIK a PED? (PEP?) We draw arbitrary lines to suit our purposes.

Jshep12: Adderall is the most often prescribed amphetamine. 10% of MLB players are using it because it is prescribed for their ADHD. Only 4-6% of the population is prescribed this drug. Is this a problem? Is this a problem MLB can do anything about?
Keith Law: If you can go to Dr. Nick Riviera and get a diagnosis, and MLB grants you a therapeutic use exemption, you’re clear. They could crack down on TUEs, but I doubt they’d do so, or that the union would stand idly by.

Craig: Does Nate Pearson have a chance to make your next top 100 prospects?
Keith Law: No.

Jshep12: So, based on what you said about Hoffman, does Rivera deserve to be in the HOF?
Keith Law: These two are not comparable, and people who ask me this sort of question are guilty of not doing even the most basic homework. Rivera threw 194 more innings and gave up 32 fewer ER, despite pitching in the AL East. Hoffman spent his entire Padres’ career in pitchers’ parks, often with park factors at -10%. They’re not the same. If you think they’re the same or even close, then wake up – the saves fairy is just something your parents made up so you’d feel better about the 9th inning.

Rahn: Do you see the Pirates’ prospect pool thinning? And can you give me someone to keep my eye on this year that you will be monitoring as well?
Keith Law: The system as a whole had a down year; other than Keller, all their major guys stagnated or took steps backward. Still a lot of ability in the system, but they have numerous guys who’ll need a strong 2018 to maintain prospect value or stay on track for the majors.

Gorman: Why do you need three pitches to start, but only 2 to relieve?
Keith Law: Oversimplifying a little, but relievers don’t face batters twice in a game, and can generally survive with platoon splits where starters can’t. If you’re a starter and can’t get opposite-side hitters out consistently, well, you’re not a starter.

Phil: What is Gohara’s ultimate upside? He’s the best Braves pitching prospect I’ve seen during rebuild to-date IMO and by fairly large margin
Keith Law: #2 starter upside. And 350 pound upside too. Gotta worry about the long-term health there.
Keith Law: I love Gohara as a prospect though. That’s just pointing out the obvious downside.

Heather: Cardinals are planning on going with at least two rookies in their rotation (choose from among Flaherty, Reyes, and Weaver). Can you have two rookies pitching that much, and still consider yourself a true playoff contender?
Keith Law: Sure. Why not? Better question might be if those rookies are good enough, but I don’t see rookies as automatically worse than veterans.

Gorman: Not trying to be flippant on Kemp, but doesn’t he at least profile as a slightly above average player on offense?
Keith Law: I have his Fangraphs page open now. 0.0 Batting Runs, which is league average, but doesn’t account for position. For a corner outfielder, that’s below average. It’s below average for a DH too.

Adam Trask: Speaking of pitchers and running, I heard that Aroldis Chapman used to beat Billy Hamilton in spring training sprints. Could that be true?
Keith Law: I’ve heard that too. Also was told way back when that Clay Buchholz beat Jacoby Ellsbury in sprints in instructs.

Chris: Can we expect a year-end list for music this year? I miss your album reviews.
Keith Law: I do them every December after the winter meetings, because there’s still new music coming every Friday.

KEvin Bo: Hey Keith, how in the world does it make sense for the supposed cash strapped Mets to be thinking about allocating their “minimal” resources to a 1B. Why not let Smith play it out as a cheap homegrown option.
Keith Law: I wonder if that was meant to motivate Smith to work on conditioning, or if someone took a quote out of context. You’re right that it’s foolish, and also, the best thing they could do for all their young players is already done: They fired the manager.

Brett: Keith, I’ve always admired your intelligence, but your above comment to Drew has me shaking my head. Some person named “Drew” says the State Department is the worst it has been in 35 years, without citing any evidence to prove this claim, and you buy into it? Dangerous.
Keith Law: I ‘buy into it?’ Overreact much? This is a chat, not a fucking grand jury hearing.

Steve: Should Franken step down?
Keith Law: Yes. Conyers too. I don’t care how you’ll vote; if you assault, harass, or abuse women, you’re out.
Keith Law: And it’s never just one victim. We see this again and again – after the first Franken story, after the first Moore story – oh, it’s just one woman, she’s lying, it happened the one time so many years ago, but then other women feel empowered enough to come forward with their own stories of assaults.

Adam Trask: Do you have your best San Diego restaurant recommendations in one place?
Keith Law: I do indeed: http://klaw.me/29EChkJ I haven’t gotten to Herb & Wood yet but hear it’s wonderful. I’d also put a hard ‘no’ on Marea coffee.

Dallas: Yovani Gallardo threw a very good curveball when he was the Brewers best starter. He got cutter happy in Texas and went away from the curve. In 2017, he brought the curve back a little bit and it rated fairly well via FG pitch values (3.3). His fastball ticked up 1 MPH this year. If he went Rich Hill, curveball/fastball do you think this would work for him?
Keith Law: Maybe if he also moved to the extreme end of the rubber like Hill did? But for Hill it made him deadly vs LHB, who tend to have bigger platoon splits. Not sure it’d have the same benefit for a RHP.

AJ: Just wondering if you read baseball novels and if so, which ones do you recommend. I am a great fan of Roth’s “Great American Novel” (if you can get past the misogyny). Have heard very good things about “The Celebrant.”
Keith Law: Don’t care for baseball in fiction. I read very little sports content for leisure; that is work, and I don’t like work to come into my hobbies.

Justin R: Have you seen “A Handmaid’s Tale”? Any interest?
Keith Law: Loved the book (and cringed through it). Not sure I would enjoy a long series of that.

Rahn: Top Chef is coming up. Still excited, even though recent seasons have played up the cheftestants squabbles and irritating behavior more than the food? And I saw that John Besh is still on the season description. I guess you can’t drop him from an episode of reality contest TV after it’s been shot. Will be interesting to see how they handle that gross guy’s presence.
Keith Law: I didn’t love the last season, and I’m just not going to watch a Besh episode at all.

Chris: HOW IN THE WORLD IS IT LEGAL TO USE TAXPAYER TO SETTLE A HARASSMENT CLAIM AND KEEP THE AGREEMENT CONFIDENTIAL?!?!
Keith Law: If only there were some way to change that …

Drew: As a response to Brett: I speak from anecdotal evidence, and know a large number of Foreign Service Officers who have worked under various administrations, serving their country regardless of which party was in office. They are feeling incredibly downtrodden right now, in large part because the President has no understanding of, or interest in learning about global affairs. Add to that the number of positions open and career public servants being pushed out of their positions, and it’s bleak.
Kim Last: My dad works for the State Dept and he said morale is much better than the last 8 years and things are going great.
Keith Law: So, I’m not vetting comments for authenticity. Do with these what you will.

Chris: What’s one band/singer that is no longer together/alive that you never saw live that you wish you could have?
Keith Law: Soul Coughing.

Jerome: No one actually paid a 91% tax rate in the 50s, so well done with the red herring
Keith Law: Politifact disagrees with you: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/nov/15/bernie-… Also, the point is not the specific 91%, but that the benefit of cutting the top marginal rate is intrinsically connected to the actual top marginal rate before the cut.

Andre: What’s your take on the criticism of those who are saying women have taken too long to come out with accusations of sexual assault? I held my tongue at some Thanksgiving gatherings–and got upset at others–but I find it abhorrent that anyone would suggest that any amount of time is too long to be credible.
Keith Law: A woman I went to HS with was defending Matt Lauer (after the first accusation … see above for how that works) by saying she had it in for him by coming forward now. I might have lost my shit. Victims are traumatized. They may fear retaliation. They may feel shame or blame themselves. They may wish to just move on with their lives. IT IS NOT UP TO US TO SAY WHEN A VIC TIM IS ALLOWED TO COME FORWARD. Praise the women who do, but support the ones who don’t.

Ethan: I opened Matt Kemp’s same FanGraphs page because I love actual examples to try and understand these advanced ideas, so can you help explain this–why does Kemp have such large negative values across the line (Batting, Fielding, Base Running, etc.), but “only” a -.5 WAR. It doesn’t add up to me.
Keith Law: I believe those double-count the positional adjustment.
Keith Law: Also, those Runs figures are averages, WAR is vs replacement level.

Chris: So you’re a grad assistant receiving a stipend for tuition, and under the new tax bill the amount of tuition (which can hit $80,000/yr) will now be taxed. Just lovely.
Keith Law: Yep. Because the last thing we would want as a country is a more educated populace.
Keith Law: That seems like the right way to end this chat. Look for the Ohtani column on Saturday and a Lady Bird review here later today. I should be back to chat next week before the winter meetings, likely on Thursday.
Keith Law: Thanks as always for reading and for all of your questions. Have a safe weekend!

Icarus.

Icarus, a documentary now available on Netflix, covers the Russian state-sponsored doping program for Olympic athletes from the most direct, personal angle possible: The director was working with the architect of the program on a completely different project when the story broke in a German documentary, The Doping Secret: How Russia Makes its Winners. So instead of merely following the chronology of the program’s execution, the leak to the press, and the subsequent drama around the WADA recommendations to ban all Russian athletes from the 2016 Olympics and the IOC’s decision to give WADA the finger, Icarus gives it to viewers in real time from the perspective of one of the whistleblowers who ends up fearing for his life.

Filmmaker Bryan Fogel decided, on what appears to be a whim, to race in a Haute Route cycling event, a seven-day endurance test across difficult terrain, this time in the Alps of southeastern France. (They also hold similar events in the Pyrénées and in the Rockies.) He finishes in the top 20, but his body just gives out near the end, so he does what any normal person would do in response – he decides to start doping to see how much a little artificial help will improve his performance. (He notes that the event bans performance-enhancing drugs but doesn’t bother testing for them.) He contacts the former head of the main U.S. testing lab, who agrees to help but eventually reneges and refers Fogel to Grigory Rodchenkov, the director of the Russian Anti-Doping Centre, a World Anti-Doping Agency-accredited laboratory that would test athletes for PED usage. Rodchenkov also knew quite a bit about the benefits of the various PEDs available to Fogel and helped him design a protocol, with the help of an “anti-aging” doctor here in the U.S., to improve his performance in a second shot at the Haute Route.

That second race doesn’t go as well as planned, but it becomes thoroughly secondary to the film’s real story: The German documentary exposes the Russians’ state-run doping program, claiming many of the country’s medals in recent Olympics, including Sochi, were achieved by athletes who should have failed PED tests but didn’t. Rodchenkov was actually running the doping program on the side, even while he was running the anti-doping facility, and during the filming of Icarus, he begins to fear that the government is watching him and possibly preparing to arrest him, so he flees to the U.S. and tells his everything to the New York Times for a piece that ran on May 12, 2016. That article blew the doors off the scandal and led to a longer WADA investigation, which the IOC chose to ignore because of reasons we can only imagine – as Rodchenko makes it clear that he believes Vladimir Putin, who approved the doping program, will stop at nothing to silence his enemies. We learn that one of Rodchenkov’s associates died, allegedly of a heart attack, in February 2016, shortly after the German film aired; another died the same month, with both men former directors of Russia’s anti-doping agency.

There is so much to unpack in Icarus, which is thoroughly gripping even though you invest the first 40 minutes or so in a story that doesn’t matter. (It’s never really clear why Fogel is willing to subject his body to the doping regimen, whether it’s a desire to win, a desire to show what doping can do, a Morgan Spurlock-style attitude to filmmaking, or something else). What was a weird but intriguing documentary that looked at the history of doping and the cat-and-mouse game between the athletes who use such drugs and the labs that try to catch them turns into a darker, real-life spy thriller. The film doesn’t bother with bothsidesism; Rodchenkov’s credibility isn’t questioned, nor are we given any reason to question it, and he provides Fogel with detailed notes on specific athletes’ regimens that seem to immediately convince a group of appalled members of WADA who walked into a conference room believing that this kind of program was physically impossible. (The KGB manages to tamper with WADA’s tamper-proof caps, among other tricks.) And a subsequent special investigation, led by Canadian law professor Richard McLaren, found that over 1000 Russian athletes had doped in events over the time period covered.

Two angles in particular stand out from this. One, relevant to those of us here with an interest in baseball, is that a sufficiently determined and organized group can defeat even a sophisticated testing program. This isn’t about masking agents, or super-secret new drugs that haven’t hit testing protocols yet, but about physical exchange of dirty samples for clean ones that won’t test positive. It shows how difficult such a scheme would be to pull off … but also that it was pulled off, successfully, for years, and therefore is at least feasible.

But I don’t know how you can watch Icarus now without drawing the obvious parallel: Vladimir Putin approved a program to interfere with a competition that went beyond his own borders to try to engineer the results he desired – and even when given irrefutable proof of what he did, he just dismisses it as, in essense, fake news. He even gets away with it, despite those meddling kids, because I’ve seen jellyfish with stronger spines than the IOC, which just gave carte blanche to any major power to dope the hell out of its athletes. There’s even a scene where we see a Russian TV show airing emails between Fogel and Rodchenkov – emails obtained via hacking. We’re fighting someone who appears willing to do anything, perhaps even kill, to achieve his goals, and who thus far has proved immune to any penalty or retribution. It’s a grim projection for the future of international sport … and our elections, too.