Uncategorized — Page 87

→ February 7, 2019
→ By keith

Music update, January 2019.

Sorry this is a bit late, but I had to write a thing about some prospects. If you can’t see the Spotify widget you can access the playlist here.

White Lies – Tokyo. If this song doesn’t put you back in 1985, I’m guessing you weren’t old enough to listen to the radio back then.

Spielbergs – Distant Star. This Norwegian trio reminds me a lot of the Wombats, if the Wombats were more punk and skipped most production values on their records, and sure enough the Spielbergs recorded their debut album, This is Not the End, at the Oslo studio of the Wombats’ bassist. It’s pop-tinged punk with just the right hardness to its edge.

Potty Mouth – 22. Potty Mouth’s 2015 single, “Cherry Picking,” was followed by a five-song EP, one more single, and then three years of silence before this track appeared a few weeks ago. It’s very much in the same vein as “Cherry Picking,” power pop with heavier distortion on the rhythm guitar, and it comes with the delightful news that the band’s sophomore album, Snafu, will arrive on March 1st.

Thrice – Hold Up A Light (Edit). The album version of this track appeared on last year’s Palms, but I’m including it here since drummer Riley is a friend of the dish and I didn’t feature this song anywhere last year.

Satin Jackets with Panama – Automatic. Panama is Australian songwriter/producer Jarrah McCleary, who’s appeared on my lists a few times in the past, primarily with his 2013 standout track “Always.” This is his collaboration with German house/disco producer Tim Bernhardt, a.k.a. Satin Jackets, although if the vocals were McCleary’s I’d believe this was a Panama solo track.

Sunflower Bean – King Of The Dudes. The title track from Sunflower Bean’s four-song EP showcases Julia Cumming’s strutting, cocky vocals, just as its lead single “Come for Me” did last fall. There’s a moment in the second verse where she sounds like she’s channeling Haley Shea of Sløtface.

Jade Bird – I Get No Joy. Bird had my #3 song of 2018 with “Love Has All Been Done Before” and is back with this track, which isn’t quite as immediately catchy but still showcases her lyric writing and her Joplinesque vocals.

Swervedriver – Good Times Are So Hard To Follow. Swervedriver’s second album into their comeback, Future Ruins, dropped last month, with three or four solid singles and then a number of longer tracks, two clocking in over six minutes, that are solid but lack hooks – good songs in between the singles. This is one of the better singles on the record albeit not up to “Mary Winter” or “The Lonely Crowd Fades in the Air.”

Teeth Of The Sea – I’d Rather, Jack (Radio Edit). Teeth of the Sea’s Master was one of my top albums of 2013, but then they put out a short album in 2015 (Highly Deadly Black Tarantula, six songs, 37 minutes) that I completely missed. They returned with a seven-minute single last year, and now have put out this more easily digested four-minute track of experimental, instrumental music, which veers from movement to movement over a dark, brooding backdrop.

Big Boi – Doin’ It (feat. Sleepy Brown). I was pleasantly surprised by this Big Boi track, maybe my favorite thing he’s done in ten years, mostly because he sounds so good here.

Foals – Exits. Foals will release two albums this year, parts 1 and 2 of a record called Everything Not Saved Will Be Lost, led off by this single, which is nearly six minutes on the album but 3:50 here. This is more “Inhaler” than “Mountain at My Gates.”

Voodoos – Natalie. These Glaswegian punk-popsters first debuted this track in 2017, but have since signed a record deal and re-recorded it; as much as I see Voodoos tabbed a punk band, this feels like it could have come from the mind of Alex Turner.

Beck – Tarantula. Beck reworked a forgettable 1982 electronica track by Colourbox (later covered and improved by This Mortal Coil) for a new album of songs “inspired” by the new film Roma, with vocal help here from Feist and Natasha Khan (a.k.a. Bat for Lashes).

Crows – Chain of Being. Signed to the new label helmed by IDLES lead singer Joe Talbot, Crows released this single of post-rock with a hint of shoegaze head of their debut album, Silver Tongues, due out later this year.

Wheel – Where the Pieces Lie. Wheel, a four-piece band based in Finland with an English lead singer, might hit the sweet spot for my taste in heavier music – the music is heavy, hard-edged, and challenging, all with clean vocals. I do have a soft spot for old-school thrash but the way Wheel’s tracks meander without abandoning their core heaviness, here most present in the chorus, is just spot on.

Astronoid – A New Color. The list gets a bit heavier the further I go; Astronoid’s music is spacier (appropriate), more psychedelic, but also bumps up against the edges of thrash or speed metal in the chorus.

Týr – Fire and Flame. Viking metal can be hit or miss, but Týr seem to get it just right – there’s something playful about their music that prevents me from feeling like we’re all taking this Viking shit a little too seriously.

Children Of Bodom – This Road. CoB might be my favorite melodic death metal band going right now; it’s difficult to create metal riffs that are catchy without sacrificing the sort of (drops voice two octaves) heaviness extreme metal fans want. There’s some pedal-point riffing in the chorus here too, punctuated by an arpeggio (maybe of artificial harmonics? I never could make those work on my guitar), that I’d like to bottle.

Dream Theater – Fall into the Light. Dream Theater are about to release their fourteenth studio album, Distance over Time, which will drop just 12 days before the thirtieth anniversary of the release of their debut record When Dream and Day Unite. This seven-minute opus, complete with acoustic interlude around the 3:20 mark, has a solid hook in the standard Dream Theater vein of progressive metal, but also reminded me of that brief halcyon moment when Metallica blew the doors off the confines of thrash and would put out songs like this, sometimes running nine minutes, with different movements and massive tempo shifts. And then they released the black album and were never heard from again. Anyway, this is a good track. Love the keyboard solo, too.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2019 in music, alternative, metal, Music, rap

→ February 6, 2019
→ By keith

Tito and the Birds.

The Brazilian film Tito and the Birds (original title Tito e os Pássaros) was one of 25 animated titles eligible for this year’s Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film, just now getting a release to U.S. theaters in both subtitled and English dubbed versions. It’s a visual feast with a story that is modern in details, classic in theme, and hews closely to the story templates of most animated films that try to appeal simultaneously to adult audiences and to most kids. It’s dark for its genre, but full of hope, with kids as its heroes and a simple message, cogently delivered, en route to a spectacular ending. (I saw the subtitled version.)

This year will mark the 19th time the Academy has given out a Best Animated Feature Film prize, with the number of nominees in each year tied to the number of eligible films – if fewer than 16 films are eligible, three earn nominations; otherwise, five get nods. The history of the award shows three strong biases: The Academy loves major studio releases, they prefer computer-animated films, and they strongly favor English-language films. Only one animated film that wasn’t originally written in English has won the honor (Hiyao Miyazaki’s Spirited Away won in 2002, the second year of the award); there have never been more than two nominees in languages other than English, with that last occurring in 2013 (Ernest & Celestine, which is wonderful, and Miyazaki’s The Wind Rises). The last film that wasn’t computer-animated to win was the Wallace and Gromit feature in 2005. This year’s slate of five includes two Disney/Pixar titles and one Sony Animation title, plus one co-produced by Fox Animation and Europe’s enormous Studio Babelsberg. With Mirai, a Japanese feature that wasn’t from Miyazaki or his Studio Ghibli, taking the fifth spot, the odds were stacked against Tito from the start – and then you add that the writers and directors were themselves first-timers and I don’t think this ever had a shot at a nomination. So with all of that prologue, and recognizing this hill points almost straight up, I’ll give my opinion: If Tito and the Birds wasn’t the best animated film of 2018, it was damn close, and its exclusion would be an embarrassment if the Academy were capable of that sentiment.

Tito takes place in a slightly altered version of the present, as a new pandemic begins around a disease of fear. Doctors don’t know what causes it or how it spreads, but it causes people to shrivel into shapeless blobs and, in its final and incurable stage, into rocks. The answer to the riddle of the disease seems to lie with the birds, which is where Tito and his scientist father Dr. Rufus come in; Dr. Rufus has been trying for years to build a machine to allow us to understand the language of birds, in part because he believes they are trying to warn humanity of some impending catastrophe. The machine fails and Dr. Rufus goes into exile, which leaves Tito and his friends Sarah, Buiú, and the wealthy scion Teo to try to rebuild the machine and stop the epidemic, even as Teo’s father Alaor, the film’s main antagonist, tries to stoke the fears through his television shows so he can sell real estate in his new, walled-off Dome Gardens.

Alaor is Trump, obviously – the pre-election Trump, using his platform as a reality TV celebrity to stoke fear for his own financial benefit, ignorant of or simply unsympathetic to the damage he might be wreaking on society as a whole. The disease vector is never identified in the film – this is a fear disease of fear itself, which means that Alaor can accelerate its spread by reminding people of all of the dangers in the world, foremost among which is other people. The epidemic rages as the kids work together against the city’s Gestapo-like biohazard agents and race to rebuild Dr. Rufus’ machine, failing one time after another as the disease even threatens to overtake each of them. The conclusion wasn’t what I expected – the writers had an easy way to wrap up the story, but took the long way round, and it works quite beautifully on both literal and metaphorical levels. The scripts speaks to how society should confront its fears, such as the rampant xenophobia that has infected our national dialogue, but also has a message that should resonate with anyone who’s had to cope with individual fears or anxiety.

The visuals here match up to the quality of the story, with an oil-painted look to the backgrounds that balances between impressionist and post-impressionist painting styles, including land and seascapes that reminded me of last year’s Loving Vincent, which took actual Van Gogh paintings and used them as backdrops for the entire movie. In our era of hyperrealistic computer animation, there’s a nostalgic pleasure in the exaggerated, inexact depictions of the characters themselves – Buiú in particular is my favorite, and the way he’s drawn reminded me of Jason from Home Movies. Their slapdash look contrasts well with the bold colors and huge strokes of the backgrounds when the characters are outside, complemented by the small elements on screen when the characters are indoors (e.g., the blue flame under a tea kettle).

That combination of a great story with strong animation feels like such a throwback, especially since computer-animated films dominate the box office as well as the awards in the category. (The Annie Awards split their Best Feature category in 2015, adding a category for independent animated features, and Tito and the Birds earned a nomination there, losing to Mirai.) It’s probably a matter of personal taste, but this kind of animation feels both nostalgic and yet still fresh, because there can always be something new when pen meets paper. For a film that began life as a script in 2011 and was finished in 2016-17, Tito and the Birds feels like it could have been finished yesterday, yet will remain relevant for a generation to come.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2018 movies, animation, brazilian films, movies

→ February 6, 2019
→ By keith

Klawchat 2/6/19.

My prospect rankings package continues its rollout this week for ESPN+ subscribers with the AL Central and AL East team-by-team reports. My ranking of all 30 farm systems went up Monday, and the top 100 went up last week.

I also have a new review up at Paste, looking at the light engine-builder Gizmos, a family-friendly game that mimics the mechanics of longer and more complex titles

Keith Law: That’s my story and I am stuck with it. Klawchat.

Trevor: KLaw – Are you at all interested in the arbitration hearings? Seems hard to believe the highest paid AAV this offseason might end up being Arenado at $26M
Keith Law: Not really interested. The clubs have plenty of money, and most players in the process are underpaid relative to their on-field worth.

Dr. Bob: You voted for Fred McGriff. He’s a ways down the list in bWAR or JAWS. Since that’s only a starting point for the discussion, what tipped it for you?
Keith Law: I didn’t vote for McGriff. I would have considered him on an unlimited ballot, but he didn’t make my 10.

addoeh: Anyone have a worse off-season than the Cubs? One of their owners is clueless and also a racist. They handled the Russell situation about as poorly as possible. They claim to have to have no budget to sign anyone. And you ranked them as having the 29th ranked farm system.
Keith Law: Other than that, it’s been a great winter on the north side.

Tyler: Hey Keith! What do you see in Taylor Trammell that puts him in your top 15 prospects in baseball? Thanks
Keith Law: I wrote an entire capsule on him, and each of the top 100 prospects, and then 14 more in the just missed column.

Anik Patel: There have been a lot of disgruntled fans when it comes to the blue jays management since AA has left. Do you feel the fans are justified or are they not looking at the big picture
Keith Law: That’s too broad a question. What are their issues? The club operating on a mid-market payroll? That’s on ownership.

Bmosc: When do you ultimately think Machado & Harper sign? Think they’res starting to sweat it out a bit at this point?
Keith Law: I would guess one or both sign in the next two weeks. Some team has to blink and realize the calendar is working against them. If the Phillies get to Opening Day with all that payroll room, the hope of contention, some bad press right now around Kapler, and neither of those two free agents, that’s a failure.

@BleedCubBlue311: Is it actually possible this late in the off-season to implement the DH in the NL?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. If I were an NL GM without an existing in-house candidate and they changed the rules now, I’d be a little miffed.

JP: has your opinion on Curt Schilling’s HOF candidacy changes over the past few years (for obvious reasons)?
Keith Law: I had said in the past I thought I would vote for him, and then when I considered his case in total this winter, I chose not to vote for him, so yes, it has changed.

Adam: Other reputable prospect outlets have more than one person working on the team and overall lists. This allows them an opportunity to compare notes and, theoretically, shrinks their error margins. Being a one man crew, how do you go about managing the workload to make sure you have the most available information and process all that feedback as accurately as possible? Do you share your list with noted friends Longenhagen and Mayo for feedback before publishing?
Keith Law: I talk to a broad range of scouts and executives and share my list with many people across baseball front offices, going through multiple iterations to get feedback before publishing. I don’t think having more people would improve the process or that it shrinks anyone’s error margins; I’ve seen lists on ‘reputable’ sites with obvious mistakes in rankings.

Michael : hey keith. really nice job on the prospect stuff over the past couple of weeks. wanted to ask you a question in re: to the team farm rankings. you’ve got miami at the bottom, but wondering how much that ranking could shift if they picked up the #50 and #100 prospects on your list for JTR. do two propects like that push them up one spot or like ten spots? thanks!
Keith Law: Maybe one or two spots, not ten spots for sure.

kc: Why do you always seem down on A’s farm? They had some guys in top 100 but you still don’t like overall.. Thx
Keith Law: Because a farm system is a lot more than guys in the top 100. Their top ten and org report will run tomorrow, and even the end of their top ten fails off very quickly, and that’s with a couple of pitchers in that top ten still on the mend from TJ.

RubenaLowe: Hey Keith, love the chats……….are the mariners prospects so bad outside of the ‘big 3’ that it couldn’t propel them to the upper half? Gilbert anything more than a backend starter?
Keith Law: I’d like to see what Gilbert looks like this year, now that he’s fully recovered from mono and in a pro system. In 2017 he looked more like a future above-average starter. But yes, the rest of the system was among the worst in baseball before those trades.

Luigi: Now that you’ve had a few months to play with it, how are you liking your Uuni pizza oven? Does its outer surface get ungodly hot?
Keith Law: I love it but haven’t used it in a few weeks because it’s just too cold outside to run in and out while cooking. The outside is way too hot to touch (yes, I’ve nicked it, and it hurts).

Jimbo: Is it fair to be down on AA as a Braves fan? Donaldson has been his most exciting move with Gausman being bumped aside in the playoffs & the Kemp deal being a creative/boring money shuffle. The prospects that are drawing praise came from previous regimes, his team couldn’t/didn’t sign Stewart. I get that the offseason has been slow for the whole league but isn’t that more reason for a mid level team like the Braves to pounce? Please tell me I’m crazy for being disappointed with it all
Keith Law: OK, you’re crazy for being disappointed with it all.

CH: Any chance Machado or Harper sit out this year? I think we’re getting there.
Keith Law: Zero.

Anthony: What do you view the likelihood that someone like George Valera ends up in the top 100 next year? Possible candidate for a Kirilloff-esque jump?
Keith Law: You could say that about many seven-figure July 2nd signings who haven’t played yet.

JR: is crappy cheap beer fighting with crappy cheap corn syrup on social media the most American thing ever?
Keith Law: Yep. I thought those ads were so very dumb. I don’t avoid Miller Lite or Coors Lite or whatever beers they were after because of their ingredients. I avoid them because they taste terrible.

Kevin: Thoughts on the news about Gabe Kapler’s time in LA with the Dodgers?
Keith Law: Not sure we actually learned anything new here – the victim didn’t report the sexual assault to the team, so while I assume she told the truth, you can’t fault the team for failing to act on information they didn’t have. What was a mistake, and deserves scrutiny, was the failure to punish the players who furnished alcohol to an underage girl (to the point that she became ill). That alone should have triggered a suspension and a police report.

Geoff: What do you make of the Reds reportedly trying to move India?
Keith Law: I had a front office executive from another team tell me flat-out they were trying to move India, and then another source told me this week they aren’t trying to move him, but that he’s the best prospect the Reds will discuss in a major deal like a Kluber trade. Senzel, Trammell, and Greene are off the table, so if you’re looking to do something big with Cincinnati, India is the best prospect remaining.

Keith: Based on yours and the other prospect lists, Nick Madrigal is one of the most divergent prospects with ranges from 15 – ~113. Is it just a disagreement over power potential or is more going on here? What should we be paying attention to as an indicator to track which way his development is going?
Keith Law: No reputable list has him top 20; the highest I’ve seen is 41. He’s a very small second baseman without power projection. Tough to profile that guy as an above-average regular.

Claus: Does Luis Garcia (Nationals) have the tools and upside to jump into your top 100 list in 2020? If so, what would he need to improve on?
Keith Law: No, probably not.

Teddy Ballgame: how would you resolve the reliever parade problem in baseball? Do you even see it as a problem? Shoukd MLB be trying to get away from one out relievers because it’s a bad viewer experience? Do you miss pinch hitters like I
Keith Law: My issue with one-batter relievers is less aesthetics and more practical: If every pitching change means a commercial break, and MLB won’t shrink commercial breaks, then we need fewer pitching changes.

Troy: Dubon anything more than utility guy?
Keith Law: Could be a regular at 2b. I wouldn’t count him out.

Anik Patel: Why is Cleveland not going for another run into the playoffs? I understand the payroll is an issue but they have subtracted quite a bit from their lineup when they are clearly the strongest team in the AL central
Keith Law: I think they view the division as winnable without upgrades. I’m not sure I agree, and they should certainly be trying to upgrade their OF.

Mike: Given his injury history is it time to consider Jonathon Loaisiga a full time reliever or is it best to still try and develop him has a starter?
Keith Law: Still has the stuff to start, and they could use him in that role.

Allan: The Rockies have baffled me by not allowing McMahon or Tapia to consistently play in the majors. What is going on in the FO?
Keith Law: I’m afraid they’ll block Rodgers too. I don’t know what their philosophy is on these players.

JP: is Clint Frazier an everyday LF for a contending club? he can still fake CF?
Keith Law: He’s never been able to play CF.

javier: who needs harper/machado more: a team in a championship window now like the cubs, phillies or a team multiple pieces away like wsox/padres who normally dont have a shot for top FA competing with yankees/boston/etc
Keith Law: I think the Phillies have to get one of those two guys. Otherwise, what’s the point of clearing all that payroll?

FiveForFighting: If you are a team like the White Sox whose window of contention probably isn’t open yet, do you pursue a Harper or a Machado even if signing them to a long-term deal includes an opt-out after, say, Year 2 or Year 3?
Keith Law: If the AAV is low enough, sure. And they could contend this year with one of those guys, maybe adding a starter, and then one hopes some big leaps from young guys already in place. I said before they’re not that far off from contention.

Pat D: As a diehard Yankees fan, I keep an interest in prospects who they trade or lose. Luis Torrens’ situation fascinates me. Can he ever be a viable major leaguer? If not, what would you say ruined him more, the shoulder injury or being stashed on San Diego’s roster the whole season?
Keith Law: The shoulder injury. I’ve heard positive things from last year, to the point where he might resurface as at least a quality backup.

AGirlHasNoName: All that off-season stuff about the Cubs being true, would you still bet against them winning a tough division this year?
Keith Law: Are you asking me Cubs vs the NL Central field? I’ll take the field.

Nathan: You’re invited to a friend’s house. While there, they suggest a game of Monopoly while listening to Bruce Springsteen’s entire collection. Do you A) grit your teeth and bear it B) politely decline C) offer a different suggestion D) find a new friend
Keith Law: D.

Willie Dewit: Is it possible for you to hate a TV show, band, or movie but at the same time realize you are the minority and it’s probably pretty good? Game of Thones, U2 and Dances w Wolves for me.
Keith Law: Sure. Much of what we think of art is subjective. People whose opinions I respect think Breaking Bad is one of the greatest TV shows of all time. I don’t see the appeal.

Anik Patel: Thoughts on Auston Matthews signing a 5 year extension?
Keith Law: I had to look to see if the Rays had given Austin Meadows a five-year extension. Apparently this person plays hockey.

Santiago: Hey Keith, Orioles fan here. What are your thoughts on Grayson Rodriguez?
Keith Law: Orioles team report went up Tuesday and he is mentioned at lenght.

Jerry: Do you see Alvarez as another potential 1B bust for the Astros along the lines of Singleton and AJ Reed?
Keith Law: Singleton is in his own category of bust, for largely non-baseball reasons. Could Alvarez fail to hit MLB pitching like Reed has (in limited trials)? Sure. He’s not very athletic, 1b only and not good there, and I do have concerns about his future hit tool.

Erik: what’s the ETA on Wander Franco with the caveat the Rays will probably want him to “work on his defense”
Keith Law: I said in his capsule he could see the majors before he’s 20.

Mike: You read Ken Rosenthal’s latest on rule changes? Are you a fan of universal DH? Pitch clock? What about forcing pitchers to face 3 batters?
Keith Law: Yes on universal DH. Hard no on pitch clock. A two-batter minimum would probably serve the same purpose.

Geoff: T/F: Spending money is the new market inefficiency.
Keith Law: Kind of true. I believe too many teams are concerned with getting a “good deal” rather than considering whether a contract could provide sufficient ROI by the player getting you to the postseason, which gives a large revenue bump.

John: Tyler O’Neill and Dakota Hudson for Corey Kluber? Fair or Indians need more?
Keith Law: Cleveland would laugh at that.

Ben : Why is the HOF ballot limited to 10 votes? If you think a person is a HOF’er should it matter if there are 10 more qualified candidates?
Keith Law: Ask* the Hall of Fame. Their call, not the writers’. (*Typo fixed!)

EuanDewar: Do you enjoy Cormac McCarthy’s work and are there any authors in that vein you’d suggest to check out next?
Keith Law: Yes, I liked Blood Meridian and the Road (well, ‘liked’ might be the wrong word there) quite a bit. If you like his settings, you might read Lonesome Dove, but I think McCarthy’s gift is in exploring the darkest sides of human nature, which would point to noir writers like James Cain or Jim Thompson.

xxx(yyy): do you have a go to polenta recipe?
Keith Law: I use Alton Brown’s basic recipe – start with a diced onion sweated in some olive oil, add 4 parts liquid to 1 part polenta, cook in a 350 oven for 35 minutes, stirring a few times, and then finish with 2-3 Tbsp butter and up to 1 cup grated Parmiggiano-Reggiano.

Bmosc: As a fellow coffee aficionado, do you buy your beans locally or online, and if online, who is your go-to vendor?
Keith Law: I get a lot of coffee locally from Royal Mile and Re-Animator, and also buy coffee when I travel.

Ben : I’m surprised the Red Sox farm system isn’t competing with the Orioles for the worst in the league!!
Keith Law: I see more upside of guys already in that system than I do of guys in the O’s system.

Chip Dipson: What are your thoughts on Willie Calhoun? Might he still be a useful major leaguer, even without a defensive home?
Keith Law: Useful, yes, definitely. Not sure he’s a regular, and very low chance he’s more than that. That’s why he didn’t make the top 100 before 2018.

Phil: Who has the higher upside between Dustin May, Mitchell White and Dennis Santana?
Keith Law: Only one of them made my top 100…

Chris: Didn’t find Yordan Alvarez any of your lists. What’s your thoughts on him? Too risky of a hitting profile given he’s not a great defender?
Keith Law: See above. “Not a great defender” is kind. Might be a DH. Not an elite hitter, either.

Jamison: Why wouldn’t the Cubs be in on Harper or Machado?
Keith Law: Because they have no mo…. no mone… sorry, i just can’t say it without laughing.

Keone Kela: Odds of Taylor Hearn being able to stick in the rotation long-term?
Keith Law: Nonzero, but low, maybe 20%.

Dr. Bob: Key line from Michael Baumann in Ringer RE: Kapler: “Despite MLB’s efforts to combat domestic violence and sexual assault within the sport, its response to stories that involve violence against women tends to concern the player first. What can the player learn? Is he sorry? When can he return to the field? Perhaps there’s a suspension, maybe an apology, but the needs of the survivor usually take a back seat to the need of the sport to put the matter behind it.” I think you have been beating this drum as well. We all need to.
Keith Law: I agree with all of that. It’s the wrong way to think about crimes against women. And the fact that one of the players involved in the underage drinking incident was a significant prospect should have no impact on how the team or league handles such a matter, but in this case it is indisputable that it did.

Jason: Do you think Carson Fulmer could become a late-inning reliever? Feel like he could use a change of scenery.
Keith Law: Only been saying that since he was in high school.

Jerry: BR Pythagorean says 2018 Astros underachieved by 6 games. Only Astros regular who may have had a career year was Bregman. Assuming nothing catastrophic, is anything less than 100 wins a disappointing 2019?
Keith Law: You should never bank on 100+ wins as a threshold for success; it takes some good fortune to get there. If they win the division, and they should, then be happy.

Lester: Do you think Ronny Mauricio has a greater than 50 percent chance of sticking at SS in a vacuum? Not sure how that changes in a system with Amed and Gimenez.
Keith Law: Yes.

AGirlHasNoName: No, I am asking if you had to pick one team to win that division, would you pick the Cubs? Maybe a 35% chance, but still better than Brewers or Cardinals.
Keith Law: Yes, right now I’d give the Cubs the highest odds of the five teams, but certainly under 50%.

Pat D: My mother told me she was having a back and forth discussion with a friend over last night’s SOTU and her friend said it was much better to listen to Trump than “the traitor Obama.” I told her to unfriend that person, even without asking her to defend that statement because that person is clearly delusional. Agree?
Keith Law: Yes. You can’t reason with the irrational.

JG: Thank you for the write up on the AL Central prospects. For the Twins, you like Enlow as a potential #2 or #3 if he develops??
Keith Law: Yes, either.

Macey: You just had your first typo I’ve ever seen.
Keith Law: Well now I have to go find and fix it.

Rick Sanchez: Adell appears to be in a similar spot to Moncada a few years back as an uber-athlete with contact and pitch recognition issues. Do you see Adell overcoming those issues and reaching star status?
Keith Law: Not similar at all. Adell’s issues are a function of youth and inexperience.

Brad: Could Cionel Perez factor into the Astros rotation this year?
Keith Law: In theory, yes, but I think he’s behind too many other guys – maybe 8th or 9th on the depth chart right now.

Dan: Are there any foods you just won’t make because their too time-consuming/not worth the effort? I’m about to give up making sourdough bread from starter because it never turns out well and it takes days from start to finish with the slow proofing and starter feeding.
Keith Law: Sure. Even things I love making, like fresh pasta, are once in a blue moon items because of the time required (and the mess … oh god, there is flour everywhere).

Bill: Not a ?
Keith Law: Not an answer.

77Sticks: There seems to be a growing critique that writers shouldn’t analyze free agent signings as good or bad — that doing so takes a pro-management view, and thus is inherently anti-labor, and ignores the fact that owners are billionaires who can afford these contracts. Do you plan on dialing back your criticism or analysis in that regard?
Keith Law: No, because I don’t think that criticism has merit.

Nolan: Let’s say the Padres sign Harper. What would you do then about the *checks notes* 7 outfielders projected to be on the opening day roster? (those seven, as a refresher: Harper, Myers, Margot, Cordero, Reyes, Renfroe, Jankowski)
Keith Law: Of that group, only Margot really has to be there, because he can play centerfield (and does it well), and Harper’s presence isn’t related to that. None of the rest matter if you think you can sign Harper.

Bill: Just wanted you to hear i pay for espn bc of your content exclusively….also have purchased quite a few board games based on your reviews. Please keep doing what you are doing.
Keith Law: Thank you. That’s very kind of you.

Chris: Have you played any gloomhaven?
Keith Law: No, I don’t play role-playing games.

Mike : How do you feel about the DH being in the National League as quick as this year ?
Keith Law: Again, I favor it, but this year is going to be too soon.

Pierre: Pete Alonso 30 hrs over under?
Keith Law: He could do it. I’d guess under, but hardly shocked if he gets to 30.

Dave: Not sure if you can/want to talk about it but I have seen writers I respect sing the praises of Idelson. I know part of the problem is dealing with the Board, etc. but allowing a Board member to use company e-mail for statement is a big no-no. Committee stacking for the Baines vote. I really think the HOF needs someone who can lead in the future.
Keith Law: I have gotten along well with Jeff when we’ve interacted, but I’m glad to see the potential for a change here, for the reasons you identified. If the writers are going to choose the Hall of Famers, then let the writers choose the Hall of Famers. Don’t game ballot rules to try to prevent Bonds and Clemens from getting in. Don’t stack committees to get certain players in.

CH: Do you think MIA is getting weak-ish offers for Realmuto bc they said yes to nothing for Yelich? Can Brinson recover at all from LY?
Keith Law: I think they’re getting lower offers than they expected because teams value framing now and Realmuto is not a good framer.

Pierre: Justin Dunn in mariners rotation 2nd half ?
Keith Law: Unlikely. Maybe a September callup.

Doug: Padre fans are in love with Franmil Reyes? Can he repeat his success with the bat from last year? Any possible growth? Or a regression candidate? Thanks!
Keith Law: With his approach I don’t think there’s growth ahead.

Macey: Why do you think the Trump scandals don’t really stick? His family was proven to have cheated on hundreds of millions in taxes and it’s probably something 98% of people haven’t even heard of. Is everyone just waiting on Mueller or is it a bed of needles situation? It’s really the most amazing thing about him, how he gets away with so much.
Keith Law: It’s clear that maybe 30% of voters wouldn’t care what he did, because they favor policies he and the modern GOP support (which I think veer from many GOP platforms of previous generations).

JR: I understand teams looking for a deal, but are you surprised by the complete lack of discussion on some guys? Have you heard Keuchel or Adam Jones names associated with any team? MLBtraderumors twitter account used to be a must pay attention too everyday for chatter, but there is almost no talk on some guys. It’s weird.
Keith Law: Jones wasn’t on my top 50 free agents – he hasn’t been a productive regular in several years. Lack of a market for him disappoints me, as I like Jones the person quite a bit, but I am not surprised. Keuchel’s lack of a market surprises me since he was one of the best starters available. Even if there are durability questions, he’d help a lot of contenders right now.

Doug: Michael Baez a reliever for you? Assuming I will find out the answer in 4 days.
Keith Law: There’s a much higher belief across the industry this year that he’s a reliever than there was a year ago.

laney adams: Brandon Lowe seems like a very good and underrated prospect. Do you think he wins the 2b job or splits time in OF?
Keith Law: I want him to win the 2b job. He’s their best internal option.

Roberto Kelly: Do you see these old posts from millennials who called everything “gay” in the early 2000s coming back to ruin their careers? And what is being done in the present day that we might deem problematic 30 years from now?
Keith Law: The cases I’ve seen have gone past people just using the word “gay;” those same people have used a slur against gays that starts with f (which, helpfully, comes in three- and six-letter variations!). That word was never okay, in any context. If that’s on your twitter feed, even from ten years ago, delete it. Just search your own name and those words and delete all such posts.

lurs darkvert: How do the Reds eventually solve the PT with Winker and Kemp? Logically wouldn’t you want to give the most PT to the younger and much more talented player
Keith Law: I’d play Winker and bench Kemp until there’s a need for him. Seemed to me like they added his contract to make the deal happen and so the Dodgers would take Bailey back.

Mark: Do you think what Josh Bell has shown so far is what he is?
Keith Law: There is raw power in there he has yet to show in games.

Chris J: Just for the sake of context and comparisons – if you expected Kieboom to be at least passable defensively at SS, what sort of a range might he have fallen in your top 100? Thanks, Keith!
Keith Law: Higher, but where depends on what kind of defensive SS I thought he was. As it is, I see zero chance he’s a regular at short in the majors.

John: Did you see Bill DeWitt’s comment to the STL PD regarding players not being signed? “It’s not like people are hoarding money and making a lot of money in this business” That’s an exact quote. That’s so insulting to us fans.
Keith Law: It’s just plain false. I hope the paper pointed out the inaccuracy of the claim.

Darren: If you were just hired to be GM of the Rockies and were stuck with D Murphy at 1B, whom would you want to get the every day at bats at 2B. Hampson or McMahon?
Keith Law: I don’t think McMahon’s going to be a very good defender at second, or even an adequate one. I’d probably play Hampson there and find a way to get McMahon more AB at first.

Oscar Proud: Should Northam resign?
Keith Law: Absolutely.

Ben: What do you think of Schultz not wanting to be called a “billionaire” but rather a “person of means”? Do you think the wealthy should pay more taxes in this country?
Keith Law: Taxing wealth is complicated – you can move wealth, and you can hide it. Taxing income is more straightforward and easier to police.

Josh: Not a question, just really love seeing you dunk on Twitter folks that try to drag you over things that they clearly can’t comprehend and resort to petty insults (that are usually inaccurate). Keep it up!
Keith Law: Just another free service I offer.

Chris J: On Adam Jones – do you think there is any hesitation from some teams based on Jones’s willingness to speak out on certain topics?
Keith Law: Not at all.

xxx(yyy): where do you go to find good longform articles? right now i use some combo of The Sunday Longread (Don Van Natta Jr) and digg.com (reinvented from what it used to be)
Keith Law: I get them from lots of sources. You’ll notice I often link to longreads published in the Guardian, and some from longreads.com.

Mark: I recently re-watched Eddie Murphy Raw (might have been Delirious) and couldn’t believe how many times he dropped the 6 letter version of the F word. And he became a star of children’s movies, now his career would be over before it started.
Keith Law: Yeah, Delirious was, at its time, a seminal comedy album, one that helped make him a superstar and I think defined comic sensibilities for a large swath of listeners. (I knew much of that set by heart from listening to it so many times.) It is absolutely beyond the pale today – the gay-bashing is intolerable, both the use of the f-word as a slur and the entire attitude towards gays as freaks or deviants or simply objects of derision.

Matt: Do you think the Phillies should fire Kapler given the recent news from his time in L.A.?
Keith Law: No, not based on what I know about the situation.

Andy: Should capital gains be taxed at the same rate as income? I have an econ degree and I really don’t know the correct answer to this.
Keith Law: I don’t think there is a correct answer. Lowering the rate was supposed to spur investment and thus economic growth. I think it spurred investment but drove wealth (via cap gains) for a small percentage of the population, rather than growing the larger economy in a way that would benefit all strata.

Matt: I think a big issue that people miss with regards to wealth is that billionaires don’t actually have cash. Like Schultz doesn’t have billions sitting in a bank. It’s all in stock. So it’s harder to tax that unless he cashes the stock out.
Keith Law: Also true. If he cashes it out and spends it, there should be tax revenue from whatever he purchases.

Ridley Kemp: The New Yorker’s review of Roma dinged the film because Cuarón didn’t provide enough context for American viewers. Is that a legit complaint, or should the reviewer have perhaps taken their own lack of knowledge as a cue to pick up an effing book and learn a thing or two? (not that I have strong opinions on this or anything)
Keith Law: That’s a bad take. I’m surprised the New Yorker of all publications would run that.

Darren: Keith, I have a request. I know you are tough on ranking 1B due to defense and replacement level, but they provide a lot of offensive value. Would you be willing to add a top 10 1B/DH list of prospects based on offensive capability alone. It would be a golden nugget of an article for your fans that play fantasy baseball. Much Appreciated.
Keith Law: I appreciate the request, but I’m done writing for now. As far as ESPN is concerned, I’m on vacation for the next week.

Pat: Not hating, just curious. You had Diaz top 50 midseason and then dropped him 70+ spots. What could have possibly changed so much from July until now? Or am I thinking about this in the wrong way?
Keith Law: You are thinking about this the wrong way. The lists are not sequential; they are organic, and I build them from scratch each winter.

Lyle: Your board games list is for 2-hour or less games (and I understand your reasoning) but do you have any favorite games that are in the 4-hour (or more) range?
Keith Law: No. A four hour game is work.

Blackface was common in the 80s: I lived in the south, but am from the north. I had colleagues and friends who were reporters, attorneys and in one case a social worker who wore blackface to parties. I would never have done so … but I’m not fast to judge them now, 35 years later.
Keith Law: I am. I’ve said this before, but I remember an episode of a bad TV sitcom, Gimme a Break!, that explained why blackface was wrong – the youngest daughter dressed up Joey Lawrence’s character with blackface, and the late Nell Harper (an African-American actress) dressed her down for it by saying (paraphrasing) “I never thought I’d see the day when I heard you say the word n—–.” That had to be around 1985, on a major American television network. So don’t fucking tell me you didn’t know it was wrong, because I am not here for that bullshit.

DR: Why build annual lists from scratch each year rather than look at them as (shudders) “living” lists? Is this a conscious decision? I see each having pros/cons
Keith Law: They’re not living lists. Do you really want me to skew a list because I don’t want to drop a player by more than X spots, even if in my view and the industry’s the player’s value has changed by far more than that?
Keith Law: The point is to give you the most accurate list I can compile, using my own evaluations and those of industry sources I trust, that represents the players as they stand right now.

Greg: Ever been to Buffalo ? Any place to eat you really liked?
Keith Law: Yes, one spot I remember – a diner, maybe the Lake Effect Diner? Really good.

Adam: Hey man. No question here, just thanks for doing this. It’s clear you appreciate the people who read your work.
Keith Law: I do, thank you. I understand some people choose not to pay for my work, and that is their right, but I want to try to honor people who do make that choice and enable me to do this for a living. I appreciate all of you who shell out some of your cash to read my words and hear my thoughts. That is why this prospect rankings package gets longer and more detailed every year – the more I can deliver to readers, the better the chance you’ll believe you got your money’s worth.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week, but before I sign off, some quick administrative notes. I’m doing a Reddit AMA tomorrow on r/baseball at 1 pm ET. I may sneak in a Periscope as well, as long as I get a few things done before then. The team-by-team reports will run one division a day through Sunday. I’m taking a trip to visit friends in LA, so I will be less available on Twitter than normal, and may skip this week’s links roundup as well, although I expect to post other content to the dish. (I’ll still be posting nonsense on Instagram, as usual). Thank you all, as always, for your questions and for reading.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ February 3, 2019
→ By keith

Cork Dork.

Bianca Bosker’s Cork Dork: A Wine-Fueled Adventure Among the Obsessive Sommeliers, Big Bottle Hunters, and Rogue Scientists Who Taught Me to Live for Taste is experiential non-fiction that manages to maintain its balance even when the author might have had trouble maintaining hers. She took a year to try to prepare for and pass a sommelier exam, something that would normally take three years, and along the way learned about the science of taste and smell, experienced the strange subcultures of sommeliers and wine snobs, and drank a tremendous amount of wine. A good friend of mine who worked in one of the restaurants mentioned in the book recommended it to me a year or so ago, and it’s both entertaining and, since I knew and still know very little about wine, informative.

Bosker went from writing about technology to complete immersion in the wine world to prepare for that exam and write this book, which meant learning a lot of about wine – its history, its manufacture, its varieties – and the restaurant culture around wine as well. Sommeliers are expected to be experts in wine, people who know everything on the wine list and can recommend bottles to customers based on their tastes and on what food the customers wish to order, but who are also there to sell wine; alcohol is often, perhaps nearly always, the biggest profit center for any restaurant that sells it. The sommelier exam involves not only identifying wines during a blind tasting, but a test of service, with a judge pretending to be a difficult customer and judging the candidate on physical service and how well the candidate answers questions.

To speed up the process, Bosker throws herself into the work of learning how to identify wines, including visits to researchers in olfactory science – by far the book’s most interesting section, as she explains how olfaction (smell) was long denigrated as the least important sense and one unworthy of serious scientific study. You may already know that most of what we classify as “taste,” whether for food or for libations, is actually smell, and that the traditional “taste map” of the tongue is so much hot garbage, a relic from pre-scientific ideas of anatomy. How wine is served – in what vessels, at what temperature – affects what chemicals escape from the wine and make it into our noses for our brains to identify, and thus how we perceive the wine’s flavors. To learn these scents, she bought a kit to better train her nose, which is a thing I did not realize you could do – in fact, people with olfactory deficiencies can improve their senses of smell by, of all things, practice. (I passed this along to Will Leitch, who lost his sense of smell to a childhood illness, and he expressed the understandable concern of regaining something he has no real memory of having.)

Bosker does gloss over one significant question that still dogs the world of wine, from sommeliers to independent wine criticism, although she mentions it in passing numerous times. There are many experts, including a handful of economists like Princeton’s Orley Ashenfelter, who developed a formula based on weather data that predicted Robert Parker’s famous wine scores, who say wine reviews and evaluations are largely bullshit. Wines are among the most chemically complex things we consume, with hundreds of chemicals responsible for the array of aromas that produce the ‘notes’ experts profess to find in wine – although Bosker concedes that some of these notes are pretentious folderol made up to impress consumers. The debate is whether anyone can train their noses and palates to detect so many different notes in a few sips and sniffs of any bottle. You could ascertain this via mass spectrometry, and the knowledge of the aromas produced by specific chemicals in wine as led to an entire industry of factory-produced wines that are assembled additive by additive. Can experts actually discern these? I’m doubtful; Bosker doesn’t delve into this deeply enough.

That skepticism colored my reading of anything in Cork Dork pertaining to the exams, whether the basic sommelier’s exam she takes or the master sommelier exam that made the news last year when one of the judges leaked answers to the tasting portion. Are we testing something real? How much of these results represent actual skill in wine detection, and how much is just good guessing? And how much do we need to know or understand to just enjoy wine? The same characteristics that distinguish wines grown in different terroirs in different seasons can also appear in coffee and chocolate, two products I particularly enjoy, but identifying the different notes in a single-origin coffee doesn’t make me appreciate the cup any more. Perhaps I’m just an oeno-philistine, but as much as I liked Cork Dork, I also found myself shaking my head at the hoops through which Bosker and other wine geeks had to leap to get that sommelier certification – and still don’t know to what extent that test actually measures something real.

Next up: I just started Tommy Orange’s novel There There, which I’ve seen mentioned as a potential Pulitzer Prize for Fiction winner this year and is indeed named after the Radiohead song.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: food science, non-fiction, wine

→ February 2, 2019
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 2/2/19.

My ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball ran this week, with four separate pieces: #1 through #50, #51 through #100, my column of fourteen more guys who just missed, and a ranking of the top 20 prospects just for impact in 2019. I also held a Klawchat on Wednesday and a Periscope video chat on Thursday.

My ranking of all 30 farm systems will run on Monday, February 4th, after which the team by team reports will run, one division per day for the following six days. I’ve written 24 of the 30 team reports so far, if you’re curious.

Many thanks to the White Sox blog SouthSideSox and writer katiesphil for this lovely review of Smart Baseball.

And now, the links…

The best thing I read this week was the New Yorker‘s profile of Nashville’s iconic Prince’s Hot Chicken Shack and current owner André Prince Jeffries. It’s a wonderful piece that touches on questions of culinary authenticity as well as the intersection of race, food, and access to money.
A close second is this Atavist story on a nearly-blind man in Texas who robbed a bank so he could get health care, a story that combines a profile of him – he also lost a foot to the effects of type 2 diabetes – and our very broken social safety net.
A woman attacked by a serial groper in DC found out he was a chef at a popular restaurant she’d visited, so she fought back by spreading word among city restaurants about his history of assaults.
Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Grimes (D) examined voting records of state employees, job applicants, and political rivals, which may have contributed to her decision not to run for Governor next year. She called the ProPublica report a “sexist smear job.”
Self-styled activist Kevin Powell nearly ruined a woman’s life over a matter of mistaken identity, running an actual smear campaign against someone who shared the same name as someone who’d send his wife a critical email. Powell, who appeared on the inaugural season of MTV’s The Real World, has faced multiple accusations of assaulting women, and lost a lawsuit in this case during which he plugged his ears with his fingers to avoid hearing the judge’s ruling, and then claimed he was being targeted because of his race.
Washington state legislators are pushing to end nonmedical exemptions to mandatory vaccination laws – as every damn state should by now – and of course anti-vaxxers are fighting back. These deniers – not skeptics, as I told the author on twitter, because skeptics want evidence, while anti-vaxxers reject evidence – are loud, so those of us on the side of science need to be louder.
Arizona is backsliding even in the face of measles outbreaks, with Republicans there introducing two bills that will reduce vaccination rates, one making it easier to opt out, one that would force medical professionals to explain vaccination “risks” to parents. (Here’s the main risk: you might be a little sore at the injection site.)
California did tighten its laws, but now many doctors are selling bogus “medical exemptions” to insane parents who’d rather break the law than protect their children from deadly diseases. This should be grounds to revoke a doctor’s license to practice medicine.
The Oregonian ran an editorial advocating eliminating nonmedical exemptions there and otherwise pushing pro-vaccination policies. If you live in any of these states, call your state rep and senator and tell them both you favor laws that end all nonmedical exemptions (religious or philosophical) for schoolchildren, and want sanctions against doctors who help parents skirt the rules.
Police failed to file charges in a 2013 rape case in Eastland, Texas, allowing the rapist to remain free so he could rape and nearly kill an 11-year-old girl. Worse: One of the officers who screwed up the original case, Frank Saylors, won election as city commissioner of Eastland in 2015.
The mayor of Dearborn, Michigan, didn’t like that the city-funded historical magazine had a piece about Henry Ford’s (well-documented) history of anti-Semitism, so he fired the longtime editor and refused to let the magazine distribute the issue. Of course, it has already backfired, with the story making national news.
I can’t imagine you missed this but Virginia Governor Ralph Northam needs to step down.
Top Chef alum Fatima Ali died of Ewing’s sarcoma, a rare bone cancer, last week.
Is there a connection between gum disease and Alzheimer’s? If you need me, I’ll be flossing my teeth.
GQ ran a guide to dating someone with serious food allergies.
A reader passed along this story of members of indie-folk band Murder by Death opening a Neapolitan pizzeria in Louisville.
The efforts of a single evangelical woman in Virginia just derailed the Equal Rights Amendment again. Of course, she’s white and highly privileged, so she can’t understand why such an amendment would be beneficial.
The EPA named a climate change denier to its advisory board. John Christy has argued for the repeal of regulations against greenhouse gas emissions because he claims (against all evidence) that their effects will be positive.
Two St. Louis cops decided to play Russian roulette with one bullet in the revolver, so of course one of them is now dead.
Also from St. Louis, the Riverfront Times details how the FBI outsmarted the violent cops who beat protesters in the wake of the acquittal of officer Jason Stockley on murder charges.
Public transport in Vienna has boomed thanks to a broad-based combination of increased geographic coverage, pricing strategies, regulations, and support from the federal level.
Mohanad Elshieky, who is in the U.S. legally, had a terrifying interaction with overzealous ICE agents, whom Greyhound allows to board its buses for these so-called “checks.”
My friend Emma Span wrote an advice column for Mother Goose characters over at Slate.
Matt Leacock, designer of Pandemic and the Forbidden cooperative game series, has a new title coming this year called Era: Medieval Age, a “roll and build” title inspired by Roll Through the Ages.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: arizona, board game news, california, climate change, kentucky, links, longreads, louisville, mass transit, metoo, nashville, pizza, top chef, vaccines, virginia

→ February 1, 2019
→ By keith

Capernaum.

The Lebanese film Capernaum, which landed one of the five nominations for this year’s Academy Award for Best Foreign Language Film and took home the Jury Prize at this year’s Cannes Film Festival, is both a daring effort to tell a grim story through the eyes of a poor child and an exercise in extended misery porn that seems to border on the exploitative. Told with a framing device that never quite works as intended, the story follows a 12-year-old boy who is neglected by his oversized family as he runs away, finds refuge with an undocumented Ethiopian worker, and eventually commits a violent crime that lands him a five-year sentence in juvenile prison.

Zain, played by a novice actor and Syrian refugee named Zain Al Rafeea, has already been convicted of that crime at the start of the film when we meet him as he sues his parents for something that is never that clear, although if you’ve seen the trailer, you’ve seen where he tells the judge he wants his parents to be forced to stop having children. (His mother is pregnant, yet again, during the trial.) Zain and his younger siblings are forced to hustle on the street every day to bring in money for their family, never attending school, until one day his parents discover his eleven-year-old sister, Sahar, has hit puberty, which means they can sell her to the local shopkeeper as a bride. Zain runs away from home and ends up on the street until Tigest, an Ethiopian woman with a baby at home whose existence she’s trying to hide from the world, takes him in, allowing him to take care of her son Yonas during the day while she works. She’s caught in a roundup of illegal immigrants while at work, leaving Zain and Yonas to fend for themselves, setting in motion a spiral of events that ends with Zain in prison.

The story is told in flashbacks between snippets from the civil case, and the framing device works against the film on several levels, not least because it’s unrealistic and serves as a sort of revenge fantasy element against Zain’s parents. (The question of whether his mother has any agency over her reproductive system is never raised; abortion is illegal in Lebanon, and birth control is available but stigmatized.) Writer-director Nadine Labaki, who also appears as Zain’s lawyer, has packed enough ideas in here for a much longer movie, including multiple issues around women’s rights, child labor, immigration laws, the Syrian refugee crisis, and the exploitation of the poor, which results in a movie without any real thematic focus that instead makes Zain’s suffering the core conceit of the plot. His character has an obvious Oliver Twist quality to him, a combination of a strong survival instinct as well as intense empathy for other children who suffer around him, but Labaki uses him like a pinball and keeps tilting the script to make things a little worse for him at every turn until he finally snaps (with reason) and commits the crime for which he’s jailed.

Al Rafeea’s performance as Zain is remarkable, given his background: He’d never acted or had any training, had lived in Lebanon as a Syrian refugee for eight years, and couldn’t read or write. (Labaki has since said that he’s been resettled in Norway, a lightly ironic outcome as the character Zain wants to buy himself passage to Sweden. In the same piece, she says the filmmakers started a fund to try to help other kids shown in the movie who “still live in dire conditions.”) I found him credible in every way, even though the script demands that he portray a broad range of emotions, some of which you would think would be hard to fake, like the empathy he shows for other kids or the contempt in which he holds just about every adult in his life. But the lawsuit is just a gimmick; it’s never clear what the actual claim is, and how Zain gets into that courtroom with his own lawyer is funny but also wildly unrealistic, as are the two feel-good vignettes that wrap up the film. There’s much to recommend in the middle of Capernaum – just about everything involving Zain in the streets is great, and some of the camerawork when he’s running through Beirut’s slums or walking along the side of a highway with cars flying by him is tremendous – but Labaki tried to tackle too much here instead of just letting Zain’s story stand on its own. There’s just no way this should have taken a nomination over the Korean submission, Burning, which is still the best movie I saw from 2018, but didn’t make the final cut.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2018 best foreign language oscar nominees, 2018 movies, lebanese films, movies

→ January 30, 2019
→ By keith

Klawchat 1/30/19.

Starting at 1 pm ET. My top 100 prospects rankings are now up for ESPN+ subscribers. Farm systems rankings and individual team reports run next week.

Keith Law: I got the night on my side. Klawchat.

Connick: Not an ESPN+ subscriber, but a Dodgers fan itching to know if we have anyone on your list who might help the big club this year…pretty please?
Keith Law: ESPN+ is pretty inexpensive. You’ll get my entire prospect rankings, which is some ridiculous amount of content (I think it’s going to cross 40,000 words, which would make it half as long as my book), for $5/month.

Oriole fans : Your thoughts on Y Diaz. who we acquired from the Dodgers?
Keith Law: Average regular without ceiling. Don’t think he stays in center. Probably goes to right, hits for average with 15-18 bombs, solid OBP.

NIcholas: Nico Hoerner had about as good a pro debut as a prospect can have, controlling the strike zone and just mashing. How do you see his bat profiling in the majors? Is he like a .280/.360/.460 kind of guy?
Keith Law: I had to look this up because I couldn’t figure out what you were talking about. He played 14 games this summer. I’d be surprised if he had as much power as you seem to be forecasting.

Steve: Hi Keith, thanks for the list as always, one of my favorite reads of the year. Any thoughts on Emilio Vargas out of ARI? Seems to have blown up last year and has a shot to be in the bigs this year if things go well — could he be a 3/4?
Keith Law: It’s average stuff with deception and extension … those guys do sometimes turn into fourth starters but have a narrower margin for error.

John : Your thoughts on Brady Singer KC P. ? Daniel Lynch is now KC’s best pitching prospect ?
Keith Law: Yes, Lynch is their best pitching prospect. If they redid the draft today, he’d go in the top 10. I have, and have always had, big concerns on Singer’s delivery, both for injury risk and for his ability to get lefties out (command to glove side + lack of a viable CH).

Melo: The Pollock deal feels Ellsbury-ish, though obviously with less financial baggage. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I do not.

Tiana: Is there a regular Keith Law podcast in our futures?
Keith Law: That’s still a long-term plan but ESPN is not supportive.

Art: What’s your take on Mountcastle? Was he much of a consideration for top 100, and are there concerns other than defense/position?
Keith Law: Where does he play? I know MLB had him on the back of their 100, which I can support, but putting him higher would be absurd. He really has no position and hasn’t shown reason to anticipate high OBPs. That said, he can hit, and he’s going to get to some power as he fills out.

Brendan McKay: Does Tampa call me up this summer and let me pitch only ? Or wait?
Keith Law: I think they’ll still use him two ways this year which would imply he doesn’t pitch in the majors.

NY Mets fan : Are we going to regret trading Kelenic in three years ?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jackass Penguin: Giants need to draft a bat or arm at #10 this year?
Keith Law: I mean, if there’s a third option out there, I’d love to hear about it.

AA: Gohara had a rough year – personally and professionally. How far has he fallen out of the top 100?
Keith Law: He’s no longer eligible.

Mike : Would you trade a top 50 player for a proven major leaguer? Top 100 player? Or would you want to build through the draft?
Keith Law: Depends on what you’re getting – how proven, how good, how expensive, how many years of control – and where your team is right now.

Phillies Prospects: Hi Keith – great job on the prospect list – thank you for the chat – Hasely, Bohm, Medina the next 3 Phillies prospects? I know they didn’t just miss from reading ESPN+ but top 200?
Keith Law: Those aren’t the next three, no. Phillies org list runs next week.
Keith Law: Haseley looked bad last year.

Bilal: The Angels have been the picture of mediocrity for the better part of the past decade, despite deep pockets and a large market. Does it start with Arte Moreno?
Keith Law: They’re still recovering a bit from years of gutting the system and the bad contracts given to Hamilton, Wilson, Pujols.

Justin R: How close were Mickey Moniak, Blake Rutherford, or Corey Ray to the top 100?
Keith Law: Not at all.

Justin Y: Trammell looked so good in the Futures Game, why do you think he didn’t have that great a year overall?
Keith Law: He didn’t? Also there’s no way you’re not the same Justin.

Bilal: who’s getting the bulk of the starts behind the plate for the Dodgers by the All-Star break: Barnes, Smith or Ruiz?
Keith Law: Smith.

Kyle KS: Non-prospect question: Do you think more players will sign pre-free agency deals now with the current free agent market not looking like it rewards players appropriately?
Keith Law: I don’t see teams offering those deals as much right now.

CH: Vientos at 60 was a pleasant surprise for Mets fans. Thoughts on where he could/should end the season if he continues to progress?
Keith Law: High-A would be a great outcome. I think Mets fans may hear more about other prospects, so Vientos’ progress wasn’t as readily apparent, but that’s why I’m here.

CH: Are Anthony Kay or David Peterson top 150 guys?
Keith Law: Peterson for sure. Kay I don’t know. I truly don’t rank past ~110.

Steve: Hi Keith, do you think Luis Rengifo’s a plausible long term answer at 2B for LAAoA?
Keith Law: Yes.

David: Here in suburban Portland where everyone is on measles outbreak alert. Sure seems like the world is going backward in every respect. Antivax is child abuse.
Keith Law: Call your state reps – wherever you live – and ask them to eliminate nonmedical exemptions from mandatory vaccination requirements. We tightened them once in Delaware (because I called my state rep and asked for his help) and we’re going to push to tighten them further. Two states ban nonmedical exemptions entirely. The number should be 50.

Darren: What are you thoughts on Aramis Ademan? Was he hurt all year?
Keith Law: Looked awful when he played, totally overmatched at that level.

Darren: What have you heard on James Kaprelian’s return to health. Where do you think Oakland has him start the year, high A?
Keith Law: Supposed to be ready to roll for spring training. Threw in instructs but velocity wasn’t back yet.

Adam D.: With Bart, Luciano, Ramos, Canario and a top-10 pick this year, could you see the Giants jumping up into the top-20 systems by this time next year, or still too shallow even if those guys take significant strides forward in 2019?
Keith Law: I doubt it. I’m less high on Bart or Ramos than you might think from their draft positions.

J5: Ethan Hankins was once considered a 1.1 draft candidate but suffered what was once thought of as a shoulder injury but it turned out to be muscular Word is he fully recovered. Are you still bullish on him? Is he a top 100 guy without the injury?
Keith Law: Delivery questions remain. Stuff wasn’t good when he returned.

Jonathan: Not a question but I love the “Kal Daniels” name drop. I forgot all about him! Man, what a talent.
Keith Law: Personal favorite of mine.

Ben: Keith, really enjoying the new prospect content thus far. How far off was Issac Parades from your list? What are you thoughts on him in general?
Keith Law: Not a consideration.

Kyle: I’ll join in the group of at least 50+ people who are likely to ask you this, would Kyler Murray have had consideration for your Top 100 if he was giving up football?
Keith Law: Absolutely not. This isn’t a ranking of fame. Guy has barely played baseball in the last 3+ years.

YoYoYo: The Rangers are supposedly rebuilding, but have a bad farm system with just a couple of prospects barely making your top 100. Shouldn’t they have made more progress by now? And given the Padres have 10 top 100 prospects, wouldn’t Texas have been better off making A.J. Preller the g.m. and firing Jon Daniels rather than letting Preller go to San Diego?
Keith Law: Yo, yoyoyo, it’s not a bad farm system, three prospects on my top 100 is going to be the average by definition, and there’s depth there. Try the decaf.

J: Yordan Alvarez: Off the top 113 because of position? Overrated bat? Because his body makes all the boys come to the Yordan? (what?)
Keith Law: All of that. Well, the first two. And basically zero projection for growth.

Garrett: How far off was Jahmai Jones from your just missed? Do you think he can bounce back after last year.
Keith Law: Love the player, adequate already at 2b, has to produce.

Max: Are you going to vote for ARod if you’re still voting then?
Keith Law: Yes.

J.P.: I see one of two Luis Garcias on the list. What led to the omission of the Nats’ one?
Keith Law: I don’t know how to answer these questions. The truth is that these players are better prospects than he is. And, FWIW, no source who reviewed earlier versions of my list argued to put him on.

Adam: How far is Contreras from being ready?
Keith Law: Three years seems fair.

Ben: How do you think Cubs fans should look at only placing 1 in your top 100–natural result of graduating talent to a World Series championship, or evidence that they’re not evaluating or developing players well? I’m guessing the former, but wonder what your take is.
Keith Law: It’s fair to ask why they’ve had so many pitching prospects stall or bust, certainly.

AZ: Do you think Carter Stewart would have made your list if he had signed last year?
Keith Law: He was my #2 prospect going into the draft, and I think my top ten from that board all made the 100 or just missed list, so I would say yes.

Eric: Thank you for your work, I subscribe to Insider specifically to read it (and Buster’s work), but I’m literally laughing at all of the Twitter folks that don’t work in baseball figuratively losing their minds over rankings that do not impact their daily lives. This is supposed to be fun, people!
Keith Law: The thing that kills me is people who don’t know much or anything about the players, and who never scouted them or called scouts or executives or analysts to gather info on those players, claiming their opinions on the rankings are somehow equivalent to mine. FOH. You can have an opinion, but please don’t think I’m going to change mine based on yours.

Josh, Chicago (-59 right now): You seem to be highest on Dunn, Kelenic and Sheffield for Mariners with having all three in top 60. Haven’t seen them all that high in any other rankings. What are you seeing with them that others might not?
Keith Law: I wrote 200 or so words on every player. It’s there.

Lale: What are Vlad Jr’s weaknesses? When do you think will be his most productive years?
Keith Law: He’s probably a DH. He’s huge already at 19, not a good defender now, not likely to get better or get lighter. If you asked me which prospect I’d want for 2019, it’d be him. This list looks forward though, and for career value, I couldn’t take him, a likely DH who could get extremely heavy as he ages, over Tatis, a potential above-average defender at short who has a better long-term physical projection. The difference between an average SS and a DH just in positional adjustments for one season (150 games) is about 20 runs. If you think Tatis is just an average defender at short, Vlad Jr would have to outhit him by 20 runs of value just to pull even in total value.

Justin R: I noticed quite a large disparity between some of your top prospects (especially around the 50-70 range) and other lists (BA, BP, MLB Pipeline). I know you don’t look at other lists, but have you identified any differences in the way you evaluate prospects vs. other outlets?
Keith Law: As I said, I think highly of MLB, Baseball America, and Fangraphs. Fangraphs’ guys and I do a lot of in-person evaluations and incorporate that into our rankings. MLB and BA don’t – and that’s fine. It’s a different method. But all four of us talk extensively to scouts and FO people about our lists too.

Ben: What’s the latest on Adbert Alzolay? I think he was near the end of your top 100 last year–is he healthy again?
Keith Law: Wasn’t healthy and still needs a better third pitch.

Matt: Saw Adonis Medina fell off the list. I’m sorry if I missed an explanation; what were your thoughts there?
Keith Law: He did not fall off the list.

Randy: Corbin Martin and Josh James both made huge advances in the last year to become top 100 prospects. Do you think this is more of a result from the Astros system of developing pitchers, or more of these two pitchers own personal development?
Keith Law: James made some personal life changes that helped him improve his conditioning and become more serious about learning to pitch. Martin just got away from bad usage in college into a system where they let him be himself on the mound.

Zach: Love the Trammell ranking, but I’m concerned people overvalued his strong showing at the Futures Game. Was there enough shown in his modest 2nd half numbers to warrant the big movement up prospect lists?
Keith Law: I didn’t overvalue (or value) his showing in one exhibition game. His tools are there. I couldn’t tell you what his second half numbers said – unless there was a physical or mechanical change, it’s not worth slicing up the season into random tranches.

Rege: After a strong AFL, is Cole Tucker on the radar for top 100 at mid season?
Keith Law: No. AFL doesn’t really tell us much – it’s a hitter’s environment, too.

Andrew : Was it an editor’s choice to go from 51 to 100 instead of descending order?
Keith Law: Yes, their call, not mine.

Jamie: Has Nick Gordon fallen off the prospect ledge? What are scouts saying about him?
Keith Law: Look at what he did in AAA – and scouts said it was like he was swinging a wet noodle.

AZ: I know what you think of Bohemian Rhapsody. What would you think of Rami Malek winning best actor?
Keith Law: It’s best actor, not best impersonator.

Brian Godish: Not a question, but great job on the annual prospect lists. I honestly only subscribe to ESPN+ for content like this, thanks.
Keith Law: Thank you!

This guy: Any advice for someone just starting to understand the need for coping with anxiety/panic issues?
Keith Law: Meditation/mindfulness.

Derek : Guys like Alonso, Rooker, Yordan to name a few are they dinged in rankings because of the high threshold for 1B Bats?
Keith Law: Yes, and none is a good defender.

Andrew: Anthony Rizzo a comp for Grant Lavigne? 1B with plus ability to get on base and have average to a tick above average power?
Keith Law: I said that.

Justin R: How did the Yankees go in less than a year from one of the best systems in the game to nobody in the top 100?
Keith Law: Well, they didn’t have “nobody in the top 100,” so I don’t know what you’re asking.

Ghost of Josey Wales: Lone Star Ball said today that the Rangers have a number of red chip prospects, guys who fall in the 50-200 range overall in baseball, but no blue chips. Is that a fair assessment of where the team stands, or are they being overly optimistic about how many second-tier guys there are there?
Keith Law: That’s fair.

Carl: You said on Twitter that Yordan wasn’t close to 100, yet I believe you were the high man on him last year. What happened to change your mind. Seems like he hit well. Was the defense projected better?
Keith Law: These lists are not sequential – I start the list from scratch every year. I don’t even look at last year’s list when starting a new one.

Nick: I am curious what you have heard about Wenceel Perez. Will he be best Tigers SS prospect?
Keith Law: Not now, but he’s a name to watch.

Paulie P: Obviously Cal Quantrill had a miserable 2018 but are you still optimistic about his long-term prospects?
Keith Law: No, his stuff peaked in 2016 in his pro debut and for two years now it hasn’t progressed.

Jederle: How does klaw order his steak?
Keith Law: I don’t. I gave up beef two years ago.

Larry: Did you really think you had to go to 114? Does a guy like Nick Madrigal really deserve a writeup/ranking?
Keith Law: OK, Larry wants me to write up fewer players next year. When I stop at 86 next year, folks, it’s Larry’s fault.

Jonathan: Thought on Nate Lowe? For sure going to hit after making solid adjustments last year or still concern he’s Casey Gillaspie?
Keith Law: Better than Gillaspie. Still not sure he’s more than an average regular. I do think he’ll hit/get on base.

Johnny: Are more prospects focusing on plate discipline than in previous years? Seems like so many guys are coming up and being patient right off the bat. Or is that just confirmation bias on my part?
Keith Law: I think more teams are working on teaching this even at the lower levels.

Aaron: How close was Adolfo to top 100? Is he out due to injury, or because he just needs to show more?
Keith Law: He had a good year, but he was hurt and didn’t play the field all year either, and that was his first really strong year at the plate. I do like him, but that’s not a top 100 guy, not with the lack of track record and still open questions.

Zach: Jonathan India put up better numbers in the SEC than did Nick Senzel, but came out of nowhere. I noticed he didn’t make your top 100. Any concerns there beyond the slow start in pro-ball?
Keith Law: Did anyone actually read my top 100? I’m starting to wonder.

Joe: If you’re the Tigers, where do you start Mize this year and where do you hope he finishes?
Keith Law: Start in lakeland, hope he finishes in Toledo. Could pitch in the majors if needed, but he won’t be needed.

JP: Does Chavis still profile at 3B, or does your non-ranking indicate a move to 1B?
Keith Law: Don’t think he’s a 3b. At least not an average one.

Lance: Does Lazaro Armenteros (Oakland) or Julio Rodriguez (Seattle) crack the top 100 next year? And what do you think of their futures?
Keith Law: Lazarito definitely not, Rodriguez maybe for 2021.

Jason: Long-time fan, reader – too bad I can’t read your baseball work anymore as I’m Canadian. Thanks for the Dish though!
Keith Law: Try signing up through a VPN. Several readers reported that will allow you to circumvent the restrictions on ESPN+ for international subscribers.

Joe: Would it make any sense for the Dodgers to trade Ruiz in a deal for Realmuto?
Keith Law: Definitely not. And I don’t think they will.

Danny: I have no basis to quibble but very surprised that Deivi Garcia is your top Yankees prospect. Safe to say that there is a bit of distance between Deivi and presumably your next 2 Yankees prospects, Florial and Periera?
Keith Law: Those were my next two prospects, on the just missed page.

Dan: Love seeing your rankings, Keith. Such a small difference, but what is your reasoning for Honeywell being one spot ahead of Kopech? Does it come down to how his rehab is going compared to Kopech’s rehab still being early on?
Keith Law: We’re not really going to quibble over players separated by one spot in the rankings, are we? Other than 1-2 I don’t think that’s a conversation to have.

Tim: If he stays healthy could Alec Hansen be a top 50 guy next year?
Keith Law: How much was health, and how much was trouble with his delivery leading to lack of command? I don’t have a good answer for that.

Randy: Hi Keith, do you think Kirilloff could make it up to Twins by the end of the year? Thanks!
Keith Law: Nonzero chance but very unlikely.

Jonathan: My daughter is in 2nd grade and into comical chapter books at the moment. Any suggestions?
Keith Law: Paddington would be perfect.

David: How difficult was it deciding between Tatis and Guerrero for the #1 ranking?
Keith Law: Not really. See above – we’re talking a ~20 run advantage for Tatis out of the chute, and I happen to think Tatis is going to mash, plus I have long-term concerns over Vlad’s body that aren’t there for Tatis.

Chris: Was it almost all injury history/risk that kept Loaisiga off the Top 110?
Keith Law: He’s never been healthy for a full season or close to it, and this year it was a shoulder issue. I feel like the ease with which many pitchers return from TJ (elbow!) has made some folks feel like shoulder injuries are also not a concern. They are, big time.

Larry: Is Fernando Romero still a prospect?
Keith Law: No longer eligible. Still love him, want to see him start.

Steeeve: How does Myles Straw perform in the majors? He’s plus across the board in all but power but how does the opposite field approach translate? Can’t really reverse shift a RHH, right?
Keith Law: He’s plus in speed (80), not across the board, and probably has 20 power. Who has succeeded recently with that profile? Billy Hamilton never did. Terence Gore is a pinch runner.

Brett: Is Trea Turner a good player comp for Royce Lewis? If not, who?
Keith Law: Not remotely similar.

Shaun: Any chance Victor Victor makes the big leagues this year? What do you envision his comp being?
Keith Law: Extra outfielder.

Hank: Does BRUSDAR’s height create the same plane concerns that Berrios’ did on the fastball for you?
Keith Law: They aren’t the same pitcher. Graterol’s issues are more delivery-related – see the just missed column for more.

Jason: Does your ranking of Gore mean there isn’t an expectation that the blister thing is a long term issue?
Keith Law: It’s not a long term issue.
Keith Law: Or does he have some sort of chronic blister disease?

Jonathan: You’re the new president of the Player’s Association. What are the three things you will fight tooth-and-nail for in the next CBA?
Keith Law: You have to raise pay for players who haven’t reached free agency. The luxury tax threshold needs to go up, if not be eliminated entirely. And I’d fight for more pay for minor leaguers.

Max: Seeing as how my yankees just traded Sonny Gray, with hindsight being 20/20 was trading for him a big mistake? Fowler, Mateo and Kaprielian for Gray turned into Gray for a draft pick and Stowers.
Keith Law: Kaprielian we’ll see. Mateo was awful last year and Fowler is just a guy. Maybe they could have gotten more for that package at that time, but right now I don’t think they have much to regret.

Kevin: Given his graduation from prospect status and usage last year, does Max Fried still profile as a SP for you? Or do you think he ends up a long reliever given all the other Braves options?
Keith Law: He could start for someone, although Atlanta has so many options it might not happen there. Definitely profiles as a starter to me.

San Cristóbal D.R: Really high on deivi garcia considering you didn’t saw severino as a starter because of his small frame?
Keith Law: That’s dead false. I never dinged Severino for a small frame. I didn’t like his delivery and still don’t.

Kevin: I believe Mitch White made a midseason list or was at least a name to watch for you previously, did you get to see him last season? Any chance he ends up getting a spot start with the Dodgers this year?
Keith Law: He was on my midseason list over in 2017. Has had trouble staying healthy, and when he’s pitched his stuff has varied widely.

KC: Do you think Soroka’s shoulder issues from 2018 are behind him? Assuming he is the guy we saw in his first few major league starts and there aren’t any issues, would he be higher on your list?
Keith Law: I think his delivery puts more stress on his shoulder. I hope it’s never an issue again, and his shit looked unhittable in the majors, but I can’t not see that arm swing or ignore the possibility it led to the shoulder issue.

Danny: Where do you think Periera and Cabello start this season?
Keith Law: Charleston for both.

Jason: Any serious consideration for Wander Franco at #1 when you were putting th Elise together?
Keith Law: No. That would have been indefensible.

Sean: No Bohm in the top 100. Worried about his bat or that he will eventually end up at First?
Keith Law: Pro scouts were not fans of his defense and didn’t see an elite bat for 1b.

Paul: Don’t mean to nitpick or troll, but Gohara has pitched exactly 49 IP and I believe still has rookie eligibility. Is there some other qualifier I just don’t know about besides IP – maybe time on the 40-man?
Keith Law: If you read the intro to the rankings, it explains that rookie eligibility expires over 130 AB, 50 IP, or 45 days on the active roster during the 25-man limit. Gohara exceeded the last criterion.

Jason Amico: I’m currently reading your book Smart Baseball….I think your severely underrate Omar Vizquel’s defense
Keith Law: So you’re saying the data underrate Omar’s defense. That’s a take.

randplaty: A lot of people are putting an 80 grade on Vlad’s hit tool. You don’t think that adds up to more than 20 runs? Or do you think Tatis’ bat is better than others are giving credit for?
Keith Law: I don’t think his bat will be 20 runs better than Tatis year in and year out – and I think Tatis may be better than average at short – and I would bet on Tatis having a longer, healthier career than Vlad.

Zihuatanejo: How much time do you spend scouting players personally vs. talking to other scouts and team personnel?
Keith Law: Not sure how to measure that. I see players all year, whenever i can, through the AFL. Then I’ve spent the last ~two months making calls.

Jonathan: Chris Paddack = Young James Shields with the FB/CH combo and get-me-over breaker?
Keith Law: I feel like he has better command than Shields did but you’re in the ballpark.

Chris: Would your Best Impersonator argument apply to Bale as well? If so, who would you like of the remaining nominees?
Keith Law: I thought Bale did more as an actor, while obviously benefiting from the makeup and doing an impersonation. I’d take Cooper of the five nominees (haven’t seen Dafoe yet, but will). Joaquin Phoenix deserved a nomination for You Were Never Really Here, which too few people saw; and Ethan Hawke was flat-out robbed here for First Reformed.

Andrew: Where in the world is Anderson Espinoza? Any reason to think he can’t still reclaim prospect status?
Keith Law: Been gone for two years now. Let’s see what his stuff looks like if and when he returns.

nelson: How have your readers’ reactions changed to your top 100 over the years?
Keith Law: That’s a great question. I think wider availability of prospect information, and more non-professional sites trying to offer ‘scouting’ reports, has changed the conversation for better and worse. Questions and debates become more insightful.

SeanE: You have probably addressed this in the past, but why have you given up Beef?
Keith Law: My daughter and I share a metabolic disorder that makes red meat in general harder for our bodies to process. We gave up all red meat other than pork. I only miss it occasionally.

CBS: do you see a player like Khalil Lee ever developing enough of a hit or contact tool to be a MLB regular?
Keith Law: Yes. Not a hacker, just runs deep counts. And he improved his contact rate last year.

Mike: I’m surprised you haven’t had more teeth gnashing from delusional Giants fans, but maybe (hopefully) you’re filtering them out. Is it possible that Bart’s future is more variable given the position and his swing and miss? Or is it less variable given that he is a more finished (old) product?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s going to hit for much average. How different is he from Sean Murphy?

Mike: Was Garrett Hampson in consideration for the top 100? Is he purely a 2B or does the glove play at SS and maybe even CF?
Keith Law: I think there’s too much chance he doesn’t hit enough for 2b (he can’t play SS) to be a regular there.

Dave: Is there a performance or development reason that A ball is split between “Low-A” and “High-A” rather than just… say… having the minors go to AAAA? Or is it just an historical relic?
Keith Law: Historical relic. There were class B, C, and D leagues in the distant past. I feel like Rob Neyer might know more.

Dylan: Damn it Larry
Keith Law: #ItsLarrysFault

Dan: My music interests seem to differ quite a bit from yours but I have been obsessed with Young Fathers since reading your lists. They are incredible.
Keith Law: Aren’t they? I feel like nobody is quite like them. Someone accused me of liking only ‘mainstream’ hip-hop (which is really not true), and I felt like you can’t get less mainstream than Young Fathers.

Garrett: Chris Rodriguez was on your list
Keith Law: He was on it in 2018, but missed the year with a stress fracture in his back.

TK: I read the intro so I actually don’t have a question about your rankings. Loved reading them, though! Thanks.
Keith Law: You’re the only one.

Atown Ant: How far off was Ryan Dunne from Top 100? Looked like he had big upside in Cape Cod summer league, just needs to get his head on straight.
Keith Law: I assume this is a joke about that dumb movie (well, I think it’s dumb, but I haven’t actually watched it), but there was a Ryan Dunne on Billings last summer.

Travis: Thoughts on Julio Rodriguez? Was he in the discussion for the top 100? Does he have superstar upside?
Keith Law: I don’t think I had any DSL players on the top 100, did I? Not sure who the last July 2nd player without US pro experience was who made my 100 … maybe Sano.

Tim: Taking out Kopechs tommy john…how would you rate Chicago’s return in the Sale trade so far?
Keith Law: I think they did very well. Basabe is a real prospect. Kopech has an 80-85% chance of returning to exactly what he was before. Moncada has disappointed fans who were told he was the best prospect in baseball, but he still has value and room to develop. Good trade.

Andrew: Pretty cool to see Tatis #1. I remember seeing you taking video of him in the backfields of Peoria in 2017. At that point he was hitting homers on the AA field and it was clear he was special before even making it to full season ball.
Keith Law: He’s just not as famous as Vlad, and that’s fine, but I don’t consider fame in these rankings.

Tom: Is your ranking of Madrigal more of a ceiling issue?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s a fair way to put it. And I don’t think he’s a guaranteed regular, either. He’s exceptionally small for a major-league position player in 2019.

Steve O: Thanks for all the coverage. You’re the only reason why I have ESPN+ or whatever it’s called these days.
Keith Law: Well, maybe the name will change again in six months, but thank you.

Dave: I would love to see some sort of show with you, Mayo/Callis, J.J. Cooper, and Longerhagen/McDaniel in a format like ESPN’s The Sports Reporters. Baseball fans can’t get enough of prospect coverage and you guys would be tremendous.
Keith Law: I agree, but the powers that be don’t.

Larry: I am a little surprised by how high Duplantier is ranked. Is his shoulder not a huge concern for you? Or is his upside great enough that it outweighs any concerns about his health? Thank you!
Keith Law: Sure it’s a concern, but he came back from it healthy and throwing as hard as ever. It’s when guys don’t come back (yet) that I worry.

Mike: Hi Keith, my daughter is about to celebrate her 6th birthday and I’ve been trying to find an game to gift her that will both be something that challenges her and entertains her enough to act as an entry point into board games. Any suggestions? Thanks!
Keith Law: Ticket to Ride First Journey. Mole Rats in Space if you want a co-op title you can all play and win (or lose) together.

Sarcastic Commenter: Is it possible that Trump is tanking the GOP so they can get a higher draft pick and money pool for the 2024 President talent draft?
Keith Law: I laughed.

Joe: Michel Baez- reason for such a dramatic fall from mid-season 51 to off the list?
Keith Law: If you read what I said, there is no “fall.” Each list is organic, not based on previous lists.

Justin R: Any interest in watching the Super Bowl? Or at least cooking anything for it?
Keith Law: Probably neither. I literally forgot it was Sunday until my daughter mentioned it last night.

Rob : Any consideration of George Valera?
Keith Law: No. He missed almost the whole summer, so he’s barely played.

Robert: No question. I just wanted to thank you for the period you stayed away from the Arizona Fall League. It was nice to see Luis Robert play some games.
Keith Law: He missed one week of the AFL, and it was the week I was there.

Ryan: Briefly on Howard Schultz, I think the main problem he’s had is nobody’s actually buying his pitch: “two party system bad” while also being a – excuse the baseball term – replacement-level republican on most of his policy stances.
Keith Law: Yep. I’m glad these dipshits (add Gabbard to that list) are all playing themselves out now, while the election is over a year away.

Mike: I’m constantly impressed with how quickly you rip through these questions without spelling or grammar errors. Is there a book you could recommend on teaching proper writing techniques?
Keith Law: I read a lot, going back to when i was a kid. I have to think that helped form language skills in my mind early and then hold them in place. Although if I read more James Joyce I’d probably lose it all.

Jeries: If Ke’Bryan Hayes never develops power, can he still be a 3 WAR player?
Keith Law: Yes.

Bill: Michel Baez- reason for such a dramatic fall from mid-season #51 to off the list completely?
Keith Law: Yeah, so submitting the same question multiple times under different names doesn’t get you an answer, but it does piss me off, so don’t do that.

Wade: Who do you dream about making the biggest jump in your 2020 rankings? Who do you have nightmares about falling out of your rankings (for non-injury concerns)?
Keith Law: Mostly injury concerns are what bother me, but I was surprised how many front office guys didn’t value Sheffield the way I did (I’ve seen him lights-out, and think he’s a great athlete who’ll adjust well) or the Mariners did. The next guy on my Angels list was Jordyn Adams; I think he could be a superstar, but he just hasn’t played that much baseball yet and I felt like that would be overreaching since we don’t have a great idea of his zone control or pitch recognition yet.

Magoo: Anything to buy into with Florial and the Yankees hiring the so called guru of pitch recognition?
Keith Law: I wrote that too.

Lololololol: RE Vizquel, “I’m reading your published book and I think its wrong” is one of my all time favorite Klawchat moments.
Keith Law: Welcome to my life.
Keith Law: Sorry to cut this off but I have one more scout call to make for these last few lists, and it’s time for that. I’ll do a Periscope (video) chat on Thursday, and another Klawchat next week when the team reports run. I also used the Instagram story feature for today’s announcements for the first time (with a soundtrack!), so feel free to follow me there (@mrkeithlaw) and let me know if you enjoy those clips. Thanks again for reading, subscribing, and for all the questions!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ January 28, 2019
→ By keith

FYRE.

My prospects ranking package began its rollout this morning for ESPN+ subscribers with the list of 15 guys who just missed the top 100.

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By now there’s a pretty good chance you’ve seen FYRE, the Netflix documentary on the ill-fated music festival to be held in the Bahamas in the spring of 2017 that turned out to be a giant con run by its founder Billy McFarland and musician Ja Rule. (There is a competing Hulu documentary on the festival that I have not seen.) Netflix chose to release this briefly in theaters, which will qualify it for awards consideration in the next cycle, and for sheer entertainment value it’s among the top documentaries I’ve ever seen.

I love a good con in fiction, but this con happened in real life, and the most amazing theme of FYRE is how so many people working on the festival saw the con happening in real time and did nothing to stop it. Fyre itself was originally an app that would allow people to book celebrities for events, streamlining a process that was opaque even to people with the money to do this but not the access. At some point, McFarland – and we’ll get to him in a moment – had the idea to create a music festival to promote the app, and then plowed ahead with the concept, despite lacking any experience in running festivals, and then hired a bunch of people he knew to try to run the event, half of whom didn’t know what they were doing and half knew what they were doing but couldn’t execute given the constraints of time, money, and location. Many of these folks appear on camera and voice their concerns that it was never going to work, but as far as I can tell, none of them actually quit the organization – one was fired for raising these issues – or did much beyond say that they thought the plans were in trouble.

McFarland appears here only in footage from the planning meetings, because it turns out they pretty much filmed everything as they were trying to make this festival happen, but isn’t interviewed directly; he does answer questions in the Hulu documentary, the producers of which paid him to do so. What FYRE does give us, however, is a sense of just what a grifter McFarland really is: he’d previously come up with Magnises, a members-only club with a credit card-like passport that would give members access to exclusive events, an actual club to visit in Manhattan, and discounts on hard-to-get tickets to concerts and shows. While it delivered on some of its promises, eventually the company started overpromising and underdelivering, or just not delivering at all, leading to a surge in complaints and cancellations just as McFarland was bragging about massive membership growth – and also turning his attention to Fyre.

His ability to get Magnises off the ground and even build some kind of customer base set up the Fyre fiasco in two ways: It became clear that he was very good at getting publicity, and he started a pattern of trying to separate wealthy or high-income millennials from their money. The Fyre Festival wasn’t just poorly run, but poorly funded, and the company took money from would-be concert goers for things that didn’t exist, like housing on or near the beach, and eventually came up with the idea of wristbands that attendees would use to pay for “extra” events like jetskiing but that was just a scam to get working capital so the concert wouldn’t go under before it started.

Of course, the most entertaining parts of Fyre come down to the depths of the scam, and how McFarland appears to be so privileged that he can’t understand the word ‘no.’ I won’t spoil it for people who haven’t seen the film, but the Evian water story has quickly become a meme, with good reason. People did get to what was supposed to be the concert site, only to find it wasn’t ready for anybody, with just some hurricane tents propped up on the beach and inadequate supplies or housing for the people who did show up, with the concert cancelled just hours before the event was supposed to begin, and no plans to get all these people back home after they were flown to the site on a chartered plane. McFarland appears to have tried to just keep a half-step ahead of the people while stealing their money, and I think the most shocking part (other than the Evian bit) is that he is eventually arrested over this scam, gets out on bail, and immediately sets out to begin another grift, this one even more blatant than the previous ones.

Nobody feels sorry for the well-heeled Fyre Festival customers who were willing to fly to the Bahamas for what was essentially billed as a luxury version of Coachella and kept handing over cash without doing much to see if the people taking their money were reliable. I can’t say I felt a lot of sympathy for them either, but that schadenfreude was not a major part of FYRE‘s message to me. I can’t get over how many people worked on this project, knew it was a dumpster fire on a flatbed rail car that was slowly going off the tracks into a ravine, and stuck around – even when they weren’t getting paid. One person, never identified, did leak details to a site that called Fyre Festival a scam and probably contributed to its downfall (or at least to the rise of skeptical media coverage of it), but everyone we see here except for the one who was fired kept working here until the event was cancelled. (The guy who was fired – the one real voice of reason here – is the same guy who brags that he learned to fly by playing Flight Simulator.)

This event never gets off the ground were it not for a clever social media campaign that made heavy use of ‘influencers,’ notably those on Instagram, who were promised compensation if they would simply talk about the festival and post its image of a blank orange square. (I don’t know why either.) The documentary skirts the subject too much for my liking, because ultimately, influencer culture is itself a fraud. Yes, if you have a large social media following, you can direct people to buy certain products and services, just by nature of the volume of eyeballs on your content. That absolves the influencer of any responsibility for what they appear to recommend, which was later codified by the FTC into guidelines requiring influencers to disclose “material connections” to brands they recommend, and to do so in a way that will be clear to most users. I have a large Twitter following and modest audiences on Facebook and Instagram (the latter of which I’m using more, mostly just for fun or silly posts), and so I am offered a lot of stuff in the hopes that I’ll recommend it – sometimes things just show up at the house. I have a simple policy: I won’t recommend anything I don’t like or use myself. I have told publishers not to send items. I declined a gift card to a restaurant chain (no, not Olive Garden) because there was a quid pro quo attached to it. Granted, I am not an “influencer” using it as my primary source of income – but maybe that’s not the most ethical way to make a living, either.

As for the Hulu version, I’ll probably watch it because I have a couple of close friends who’ve urged me to do so, even just so we can discuss it, although the consensus seems to be that FYRE is better. And it is wonderfully bonkers at so many points. Ja Rule has a quote near the end that is a jawdropper. The Evian story and McFarland’s third scam, while out on bail, are both are-you-fucking-serious moments. The Lord of the Flies (Lord of the Fyres?) scenes on the beach and later at the airport are both enough to make you screw up your faces in disbelief, although those beach scenes made me a little uncomfortable as these well-off young adults complained over conditions that probably a billion people in the world experience as their normal. It’s shocking in so many ways, none more so than the grifter Billy himself, who must be some sort of sociopath for the ease with which he lies to people and to cameras while gleefully helping himself to others’ cash.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2019 movies, con men, documentaries, frauds, highly recommended, movies

→ January 26, 2019
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 1/26/19.

I had one ESPN+ piece this week, on the three-way trade that sent Sonny Gray to Cincinnati. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday. The 2019 top prospects package begins its rollout on Monday.

At Paste, I reviewed the cooperative game Forbidden Sky, from Pandemic designer Matt Leacock, who adds a fun STEM element to the same framework he’s used in Pandemic and the other Forbidden titles.

And now, the links…

Longreads first: The Longreads site has The Hunt for Planet Nine, spending time with two astronomers scrutinizing the skies for a ninth planet, beyond Neptune, that would explain the presence and behavior of several bodies in our solar system – but that no one has been able to find yet.
The Atlantic cancels Brian Singer with a litany of stories about sexual assaults, mostly of young, often underage, vulnerable men, usually involving a lot of alcohol and drugs. It’s an awful read, but it should really be the end of Singer’s career, and, I hope, the end of any talk of Bohemian Rhapsody winning Best Picture. In a short, related story, Queen’s Dr. Brian May tried the ‘innocent until proven guilty’ trope for Singer but had to apologize and walk it back.
The Guardian‘s Long Read looks at the endless hunt for a single, long-lasting flu vaccine, an excerpt from an upcoming book on influenza, here also looking at the history of vaccination and why countries differ in their vaccine recommendations.
Also from the Guardian, the Rwandan government may have killed the country’s exiled spy chief in a story reminiscent of the murder of Jamal Khashoggi by the Saudi Arabian government.
This excerpt from an upcoming book on the micronation of Sealand is just delightfully nuts. I first heard about Sealand through HavenCo, a short-lived “data haven” colocation company which Ars Technica remembered in a condensed history back in 2012 after its demise.
The New Yorker‘s Isaac Chotiner interviewed one of the scientists claiming that ‘Oumoamua is from an alien race, a sort of real-life Rama, and the interview kind of goes off the rails as it progresses.
Several good links on the Covington Catholic students’ actions at the March for Life last weekend: Father Edward Beck, a Roman Catholic priest, writes that MAGA hats do not belong on Catholic school trips. The Atlantic‘s Ian Bogost implores us to stop trusting viral videos. A Republican PR firm in Louisville played a key role in helping – or protecting – the privileged white students of the school.
Then there are pieces on the video itself. Reason‘s Robby Soave, who I think it is fair to characterize as a contrarian writer, argued that the ‘full’ video exonerated the students. Cartoonist Matt Bors of the Nib vehemently disagreed. So did Rewire editor Jodi Jacobson, who said There is a longer video. And it’s worse.. I don’t even know who wrote this piece tying the revisionist takes to the our disinformation age, but I thought it was spot on.
My friend Will Leitch says the upcoming Stephen Soderbergh film High Flying Bird is the most radical sports film he’s ever seen.
Israel’s Health Ministry is considering sanctions against eight anti-vaccine doctors. (Link requires subscription; it was free when I first read and saved it.) This should be policy everywhere. Doctors who tell patients not to vaccinate are as bad as doctors who sell useless supplements or fraudulent treatments – maybe worse, because the failure to vaccinate hurts more than just those patients.
The New York Times‘ editorial board argues for ending nonmedical exemptions to vaccination laws and improving pro-vaccine messaging to counteract anti-vaxxer bullshit. There are measles outbreaks everywhere in the U.S. now, even though the disease was eradicated in the entire hemisphere less than 20 years ago. As many as 19,000 people were exposed to measles at a Portland Trail Blazers game recently. You should be mad enough to call your state rep and your state senator and demand that they eliminate religious and philosophical exemptions.
Curiosity explores what “travel to origin” means for things like food or coffee and why you should care about it.
Eater asks if white Yelpers demanding ‘authenticity’ are hurting non-white restaurant owners and chefs because the customers don’t know what authentic means in those contexts and tend to substitute their own prejudices.
Arizona, you never cease to disappoint me: Gail Griffin (guess) proposed a tax on watching pornography to pay for a border wall.
Meanwhile, a federal judge found that people who were leaving water and other supplies for people trying to cross the desert to enter the U.S. illegally guilty of ‘abandoning personal property’ as well as using a motor vehicle in the area without a permit.
Senator Jodi Ernst revealed that she was raped in college, and is now leaving her abusive husband. It is hard to square her history of traumatic experiences with her refusal to believe the women who accused Brett Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct. That said, I have great respect for Sen. Ernst for coming forward with a private memory that must still be very painful to discuss.
The new Los Angeles County Sheriff reinstated a deputy who had been fired for domestic abuse and stalking.
Sudan’s people are rising up against their longtime dictator, and the regime is cracking down, but George Clooney and his compatriots are nowhere to be found this time when the former object of their attention needs their help.
I guess the American “Rooster” sriracha isn’t what Thai people expect from the condiment.
Board games! Tom Lehmann’s game The City will get its first English-language edition and it’s currently on Kickstarter.
Next Move Games is holding a contest around its upcoming game Tuki to win a free copy of the game.
Finally, the tweet of the week contains a not very well-known clip from Martin Luther King, Jr.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: arizona, astronomy, board games, links, longreads, los angeles, science, stick to baseball, vaccines

→ January 25, 2019
→ By keith

The Plague.

Reading Albert Camus’ The Plague, which appeared on the Guardian‘s list of the top 100 novels ever written, was itself a bit intimidating, because it’s the rare novel where I could go into it already knowing there would be layers of meaning beyond the text itself, presenting me with the challenge of reading for plot while also considering how much time to spend deciphering the metaphors and allusions throughout the book. Fortunately, it’s a better read than Camus’ The Stranger, a hallmark of existentialist literature that stands at an imperturbable remove from its protagonist, although I won’t pretend I truly understood everything Camus was trying to express in this text.

Set in Oran, in what is now Algeria but at the time was still a French colony, The Plague follows an outbreak of bubonic plague in the city through about a half-dozen characters, primarily Dr. Rieux, who becomes the leader of the efforts to treat and slow the progress of the epidemic despite a lack of medicines and unhelpful authorities. Bubonic plague, the best-known disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, had no effective treatment at the time that Camus wrote the novel, so characters who fall ill expect and are expected to die, making the response from Dr. Rieux and the other central characters more about management and quarantine rather than cure.

Camus tracks the actions and emotional responses of those half-dozen characters as the plague appears, waxes, peaks, and wanes, with nearly everyone suffering some sort of loss as the novel progresses. Rieux has sent his wife, ill with some other ailment, out of town to a sanatorium as the novel opens, so she’s away during the plague but he has no contact with her. Rambert, a French journalist who was scheduled to leave Oran but who is trapped by the quarantine, speaks of his desire to return to his wife in Paris, even plotting escapes around the guards, but eventually choosing to stay because he feels some responsibility to help. The plague affects everyone, even those who don’t lose family members to the disease, as it first alters the rhythm of the town’s life – Camus writes of the movie theaters running the same films, then exchanging films with other theaters, just to retain some semblance of normal life – and eventually leads to shortages.

There are some strange omissions in the novel, as the major characters are all French men – the women who appear are all minor characters, and I’m not sure there’s even a single named Arab character in the book. Whether Camus intended this, it is a book of othering – his characters set themselves apart from the Algerians in Oran, but are themselves the others, the minority ruling class in a country that would begin a violent revolution for independence seven years after The Plague‘s publication.

Most critical analyses I’ve seen of The Plague describe it as an allegory for the Nazi occupation of France and the intermittent, nearly futile resistance offered by some French civilians against their occupiers and the collaborators in the Vichy puppet government. Camus’ protagonists know they are likely doomed to fail, and even success will be defined by forces outside of their control. I thought the disease worked better as a metaphor for life itself, especially as defined by Camus’ atheist/existentialist worldview: If life and death are largely random, both in the sense of unpredictable as well as without philosophical meaning, then how should we react? What moral codes dictate our actions? Is there value in finding external meanings, as the priest Paneloux – who argues that the death of a child due to plague must be right, because if it occurred, then it means God willed it, in a sort of ne plus ultra form of the unitary executive theory – does right up to his own death? If not, how do we give meaning to our lives when they are finite and may be cut short without warning?

If that was Camus’ intention, he gives us several possible answers, but none is as powerful as Rieux, who seems to sacrifice the most in the novel, but whose only gain is intangible and fleeting, the boost we get from helping others. In a time today when so many people still celebrate materialism or aspire to its excesses, and where we live as if the probability of a catastrophe like The Plague is almost nil, that message feels as relevant as it might have seventy-two years ago in the Holocaust’s wake.

Next up: Bianca Bosker’s Cork Dork: A Wine-Fueled Adventure Among the Obsessive Sommeliers, Big Bottle Hunters, and Rogue Scientists Who Taught Me to Live for Taste, recommended by a close friend of mine who used to work in a restaurant mentioned in the book.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: existentialist novels, french literature, guardian 100, nobel prize, philosophical novels

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