Portland eats.

I had less than a day in Portland this past weekend, but it was my first visit to the city in 20 years, so I had a little catching up to do, and very little time in which to do it.

I had two particular food targets for my weird trip through Portland – I was headed to Corvallis to see Oregon State play, and thus had small parts of two days in Portland after I flew in Friday morning and before I flew out Saturday evening – in Apizza Scholls and the ice cream parlor Salt & Straw. Apizza Schools has come recommended to me for years, by industry people, by baking teacher and cookbook author Peter Reinhart (whose The Bread Baker’s Apprentice is still my go-to source for making any kind of artisan bread), and by many readers. It was a little different from what I expected, but still very good, a solid 55 on the 20-80 scale.

Apizza Scholls’ pizza splits the difference between Neapolitan pizzas, cooked fast at around 900 degrees with a very airy crust that has some charring at the exterior, and both New York and New Haven styles, so their pizzas’ crusts are more evenly browned without charring, and have a hard crunch without the softer bread-like interior of Neapolitan crusts. Most of their menu combinations contain meat, and I was looking to avoid that, so I went with their “plain” pie (which still has sauce and fresh mozzarella) and added mushrooms and arugula, which meant a huge portion of the latter. The center of the pie wasn’t wet as in Neapolitan styles, but the crust was thinner than New York slice, closer to New Haven, while the toppings as a whole were correctly seasoned. I appreciated that, for lunch at least (only served on weekends), they offered an 11″ option for one person.

Salt & Straw now has locations in a few other cities – I know it’s in LA – but I’d never been to any of them before this trip. They’re legendary for the quality of their product and for the way the servers outright encourage you to sample all the flavors you want; I think I tried five before settling on one of their two most popular flavors, Almond Brittle with Salted Ganache, and one of their special flavors at the moment, Wild-Foraged Berry Slab Pie. The surprising part was the the ice cream itself wasn’t heavy or dense – more like a semifreddo in texture than super-premium ice cream. The flavors were absurd; actually everything I sampled was excellent, although the Chocolate Gooey Brownie wasn’t really my thing, since brownie bits get too dense and chewy in ice cream.

Canard was one of two places recommended to me by Jeff Kraus, the chef-owner of Tempe’s Crepe Bar (which you should all try when you go to that area of Arizona), and was open for lunch on Friday, allowing me to hit an extra spot before going to Powell’s Books, which was a bucket-list item for me. (It exceeded expectations by a few orders of magnitude.) They had a placard out from suggesting the “duck stack,” and if you’ve read this blog before you’re aware of my affinity for the meat of the Anatidae. This dish was a bit different, though: it’s a small stack of pancakes topped with some grilled onions, a rich duck gravy, and a duck egg cooked roughly over-medium. The gravy has ground duck – I’m almost certain this was only white meat – with a little bacon, some reduced duck stock, a little brown sugar, and a lot of salt and pepper. It was delicious, but I don’t think I would have known that was duck if I hadn’t ordered it. The flavors I associate with duck were muted enough in the gravy that this could have been any other lean poultry. It was expertly made, just not quite what I expected.

Eem was Jeff’s second recommendation, a cocktail bar and restaurant with Thai-influenced dishes, including a handful of curries and many small plates. I asked my server for a few recommendations without red meat, and ended up with the roasted beet salad and the stir-fry with mushrooms, long beans, cashews, and one of the most convincing meat alternatives I’ve ever tasted. The beet salad was good, as they were cooked properly and came with puffed rice that gave the dish some needed textural contrast, but that stir-fry, which came with a rich, deep brown sauce that was some sort of umami bomb, salty and complex and a little sweet, was superb. The meat alternative was soy, but it was much firmer than any tofu product I’ve ever tried; it seemed to be compressed and braided to mimic the texture of chicken breast prepared in the same method. I arrived at 5 pm, right when they opened, and there was a line already there; I got one of the last open seats at the bar and by 5:10 the host was telling parties of two there’d be a 35-40 minute wait.

I tried two Portland coffee places, which seemed like a better way to experience the city than getting a tattoo and a man-bun. (In truth, I did see far too many men with man-buns, clutching their yoga mats. It was a bit too on the nose, really.) Coava Coffee was recommended by writer Matthew Kory, recently of The Athletic. Coava uses Chemex for pour-overs; the Guatemalan Finca las Terrazas I tried had a great semi-sweet chocolate note with very low acidity. I was already familiar with heart roasters, having had their coffees at several other shops around the country, including Crepe Bar (which now uses local roaster Presto) and midtown Manhattan’s Culture Espresso. Heart offers a single-origin espresso in addition to their Stereo blend, so I tried that, just for something different; the Kenya Kiachu AB beans they used were fruity but not citric so it had good body without that lemon-drop flavor you can get from a lot of Kenyan or Ethiopian beans when made as espresso.

Townshend Tea Company has a huge menu of loose-leaf teas, steeped to order and with a CBD infusion available for another $2. I skipped the weed and just went with a hojicha, my favorite green tea because it’s roasted, usually made from leaves harvested after the first two flushes. The roasting removes the grassier notes in some green teas, and also reduces its caffeine content, although for reasons I’ve never understood I don’t get the same caffeine hit from any kind of tea that I get from coffee. 

Stick to baseball, 3/23/19.

I had two ESPN+ pieces this week – my annual breakouts column and my first scouting notebook from Arizona, covering prospects from the Padres, Dbacks, A’s, and Royals. I’ll have a draft blog post up this weekend looking at four potential first-rounders, including presumptive #1 overall pick (today, at least) Adley Rutschman. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

There will be a fresh email newsletter in the next 2-3 days as well. You can sign up free and never miss a word.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 3/21/19.

My annual list of potential breakout players is now up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: I need for you to be reasonable. Klawchat.

barbeach: KLaw thanks as always for the chat. What are your thoughts on Gio Gonzalez…does he have anything left?
Keith Law: More than that. I think he can be a league-average starter for someone. I find it very hard to believe his claim that he didn’t receive *any* offers before yesterday. Maybe he didn’t get any offers he thought were fair – I can believe that, in this market – but he would make at least 20 rotations better.

Bay of Puigs: hey Keith, can you please suggest a few NL starting pitchers who you expect will take a big step forward this year?
Keith Law: My breakouts column went up this morning: https://klaw.me/2Ctw1us Anyone I feel like that about is in the column.

Kid Koala: Is this the year Tyler Glasnow puts it all together?
Keith Law: I would bet no.

Richard: So it looks like Alex Reyes starts his season in the Cardinals’ pen. Think he can still develop into a Top 50 starter this year, or is health too great an obstacle?
Keith Law: I see two obstacles: The fact that he has barely pitched the last few years, which would make it unlikely he can jump to 100-120 innings without incident, and a delivery that seems to result in him getting hurt.

Ridley: With Miley and McHugh in the rotation, Peacock likely joining them and Whitley around in midseason, do you think Josh James can still be an impact starter in Houston this year? (Or ever)?
Keith Law: Yes, this year and going forward. I’d much rather start James than Peacock.

Moe Mentum: Besides baseball, what was the last professional sporting event you attended? How about attended *and enjoyed* if that’s a different answer?
Keith Law: I don’t remember. I went to a hockey game in Toronto in 2003 or so. That might be it. Even if I’m not working, being at a professional sporting event feels like I’m at work.

Scotty Jetpack: Hi Keith – do you see Kingery as anything more than a super-utility player moving forward? Based on his power/speed combo and success in the minors, I was expecting more, and most likely so were the Phillies’ brass when they handed him 6/$24M (with $65 total possible) before he even made his MLB debut. He was one of the worst position players in the MLB last year statistically, but due to his versatility, he’s currently the backup SS, 2B, and 3B and can also play OF in a pinch, which is valuable. But as long as we have Cesar Hernandez at 2B, I don’t see where he fits everyday. Thoughts?
Keith Law: He doesn’t fit everyday on the current Phillies but I think he’s going to end up a regular. He’s a ++ defender at second.

Ken: Chris Russo took a lame shot at you the other day on the radio saying what in the world did you know about sports in reference to a caller who called saying that the Angels were improving with the 7th ranked farm system. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I think you wasted your time listening to him. Go watch paint dry instead.

Alex: Best book for dealing with anxiety you’ve ever read?
Keith Law: Fully Present.

Perd Hapley: K-Law I have a question for you and my question is this. When does the international signing period begun and end…for those who callers who don’t know an international signing period is what?
Keith Law: Starts July 2nd, although the main prospects have agreements in place long before that, as much as two years before.

Craig Kimbrel: At this point, am I likely to get a bigger contract if I wait to sign until after the draft in June?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. The draft pick was never the issue; it’s the demand for a six-year deal plus the poor performance in October.

Ivan: Given the 2019 rotation uncertainty, should Atlanta sign Dallas Keuchel to a 1 year deal?
Keith Law: It wouldn’t hurt them but they have so much internal pitching depth I think they benefit less from adding Keuchel than most contenders would.

Alan: Hunter Bishop. Give us the deets! The helium legit? Is he a CF long-term? Should we expect a jump in your rankings?
Keith Law: Not a CF. Clearly a first-rounder right now.

Ben: What are you thoughts on what the Tiger’s should look to do at pick 5? Thanks
Keith Law: Best player available. That’s probably a college position player – I don’t think there’s a college starter in the top ten, and there might be just one HS pitcher up there.

Jarry: Thoughts on Ichiro’s two game farewell? I know they won so it didn’t hurt them, but offensively he’s at a Tebow level right now. Seems crazy that they did this.
Keith Law: Crazy how? Hall of Famer on both sides of the ocean gets to play his final games in his home country, with the MLB team where he spent most of his career, in two games that really don’t mean anything to Seattle since they’re not contending.

Zac: Eloy Jimenez extension good or bad? Will this be the new norm for teams to get 8 years of control?
Keith Law: Good for him, good for the team (with some risk), perhaps not great for players as a whole, but how could you tell any player to turn down that money when he has yet to earn a single big-league paycheck?

Dr. Bob: What do you think of Fangraphs incorporation of pitch framing into catcher’s WAR? Yadier Molina now moves up to 13th all time. He is in the negative on offense, but has the highest defensive numbers in history. Does this change the debate?
Keith Law: It doesn’t change the debate, although it was funny how many BFIBs seemed to think it did. This isn’t new data; it is a combination of data we already had. I said on Twitter, though, that I think Fangraphs made a colossal mistake in doing this. You can no longer use their WAR to compare catchers from this era to those in previous eras – was Johnny Bench a great framer, with his gigantic hands? Fisk? Carter? Maybe one of them was terrible, too, and we have no idea.

Zac: Are Michael Fulmers best years behind him?
Keith Law: I hope not.

Sean: Is durability in position players a real thing? Seems like injuries are randomly distributed and you can’t predict future games played based on prior injury history, but not sure which side the data supports, do you have any insights?
Keith Law: Yes. Staying healthy is a skill for position players. For pitchers, though, I don’t think we know much at all; by the time we can say a pitcher is durable his durability may be past tense.

Devin’s Cow: Hi Keith, please moooove this question to the top of your queue: what are your thoughts on these early regular season games in Japan? The week delay between these games and the rest of the opening days seems odd and sort of jarring. These feel more like international exhibition games, especially with the crazy early start times in the US.
Keith Law: Great for the sport, hard on the players.

Tom: So even though service time manipulation is no longer an issue with Eloy Jimenez signing a long-term deal, the Sox will still keep him down in AAA for some period of time, right? I mean, if they call him up right away isn’t that the same as admitting that they sent him down for non-baseball reasons in the first place?
Keith Law: What’s the consequence? If they call him up right away, so what? He’s not filing a grievance after signing this deal (and maybe agreed not to do so).

Sean: I keep reading that Nick Pivetta is going to break out this year. I am still very skeptical. What are your thoughts?
Keith Law: I do not believe so. I think he’s miscast as a traditional starter and see no reason to rethink that.

Jon V: The recent extensions make a lindor long term deal in Cleveland even more unlikely. Would you ride out his contracted window or look to move him at some point after this season?
Keith Law: I’d move him after this season, because I think you can get the sun and the moon for him.

J Dawg: How good can Braves Kyle Wright be this year?
Keith Law: Maybe league-average this year. Would probably guess a little below for now, although I think he has more potential in the long term.

Jon V: Does Bauer’s personality impact his trade value? Does his stated desire to go year by year after his arb years impact his trade value?
Keith Law: I am sure some teams would shy away from him, fearing that he’ll create some unwanted controversy or, worse, do something to get himself suspended, but his talent is also such that (I’m guessing) the majority of teams would just take him. There are teams that have no problem taking domestic abusers as long as they have a modicum of talent remaining. The Pirates welcomed Kang back after multiple DUIs, including a hit-and-run, and a sexual assault allegation.

Drew: How would you handle Chris Paddack this season for the Padres?
Keith Law: Just start the guy.

Jeff: Going up to Corvallis to watch Rutschman and Vaughn this weekend? That’s a nice matchup.
Keith Law: That’s the plan although the weather doesn’t look great.

Joseph: So were you completely against the Ichiro 2019 saga like you are against a hypothetical Tebow callup or are you a hypocrite?
Keith Law: How stupid must you be to compare a Hall of Famer like Ichiro to a guy who hasn’t even hit in the minors? I’m surprised you didn’t somehow mix up your and you’re in there.

Tony: Apologies if you’ve been asked this one before but do you think it’s possible that Oakland knew Addison Russell was a budding dirt bag? If I recall he was rocketing into the top 5 overall when traded. Would a team keep this type of info private?
Keith Law: I never heard a word of this until Russell’s ex first posted about it on IG.

Chris: Just curious, do you regularly get out of the blue replies to 2 year old tweets like Soundsing Mad Yadi Fan yesterday?
Keith Law: No. Some BFIB account retweeted that, and then a handful of people too slow to look at a timestamp started yelling at me.

Ben: Think Daniel Lynch starts in HighA? Or could be pushed to AA?
Keith Law: My guess is high A but not for very long.

CH: Wheeler will be Mets best SP this year. Tell me I’m wrong!
Keith Law: You’re wrong.

Todd: Silly question, all things equal, did the Yankees make the right choice in choosing from the Cubs Gleyer instead of Eloy?
Keith Law: Yes, not that there’s a huge gap.

MJ: Do you think Bryse Wilson pitches a significant amount of innings (say >100) at the major league level this year? Can he be at least league average?
Keith Law: I’m a huge fan but I think he’s probably behind too many other guys in their starter queue at the moment to predict that many starts (that’s probably 15+ starts in the majors).

Erik: I love Jake Bauers’ approach (ie all the walks) last year but his average cratered, especially in the second half. What are your thoughts on him and can he be at least a league average player given his defensive shortcomings?
Keith Law: I think that’s the most he can be, with the lack of power and negative defensive value.

Tribe Called Jest: Higher ceiling youngster, Lenny Torres or Ethan Hankins?
Keith Law: If Hankins’ stuff ever returns, it’s him.

Gritty: Ichiro earned a sendoff. What has Tebow done to deserve the attention he’s gotten thus far?
Keith Law: Threw a football, and not well.

Aubrey: Do you still believe in the Johan Santana development model of using a young starter in the bullpen first, then to the rotation? What makes a young guy like Forrest Whitley a good or bad candidate for that role?
Keith Law: I believe in it wholeheartedly. If I ran a team I’d try to break every starter in that way – in long relief, though, not as a one-inning reliever. It’s a planned development path, not a “stick him in the bullpen, let the manager use him however” deal.

Kevin : Is there a point where you are to tall to be an effective major leaguer?
Keith Law: A fair question. We’ve never had a 7′ big leaguer. Is that because it doesn’t work, or because they’re selected into basketball? There are certainly diminishing returns to height beyond at 6’6″.

Rick Sanchez : I wanted to just give Pete Buttigieg a quick pop. I feel like the only reason he’s behind candidates like Beto and Kamala in the polls is because he doesn’t grab media attention as well as they do, especially through social media. It kills me how much influence social media has these days! I encourage everyone to check out an interview of this guy- he’s super sharp and laser focused, with a great resume to back it all up. I’d recommend checking out his interviews from the Washington Post or Pod Save America. He also came on Chris Wallace’s show, which I wish more Dems would do!
Keith Law: Two thoughts. One, yeah, he’s been very, very impressive so far. He appears to be one of the most intelligent candidates, declared or rumored. And two, it doesn’t take much for a candidate like him to surge in the runup to the primaries – I’ve mentioned before how Clinton was seen as a longshot in 1991 and won the election, and pre-scandal Gary Hart went from extreme longshot to the close runner-up in 1984.

Danny: Is Spencer Jones the type of pitcher the Yankees typically target? (he seems like the only Oppenheimer special-SoCal pitcher- in the top 2 rounds)
Keith Law: No, and he hasn’t been very good in the early going.

Kevin : I know it’s never going to happen but would you be in favor of a relegation system for mlb?
Keith Law: No.

AGirlHasNoName: What’s the best use of twitter as a newbie? I mostly have been using it as a news filter, is that it? Otherwise reading the replies seems to lower my opinion of humanity.
Keith Law: That’s probably the best use. And/or follow people who tweet interesting links.

Discount Steve Urkel: Have you seen Luis Robert this spring?
Keith Law: Nope. Tried Monday, he wasn’t playing. Have had other priorities since. I can only chase a shadow for so long/

Kevin : What do you drink when you are on the road (besides coffee)?
Keith Law: Tea or water. That’s it.

Esteban: what’s the difference between an above average and a plus pitch? Let’s use a curve for instance, is it simply inches of break? Or is it a multitude of things like velo, control etc.? Can a slow breaking ball be as effective as a hard breaking ball?
Keith Law: Do hitters swing and miss at it? How often? That’s really all that matters in the end.

Mark: Do you think we will see more young players sign extensions as a reaction to the uncertainty in the CBA (ie they would be afraid that the union would continue to bargain in favor of veteran players at the expense of young players)?
Keith Law: These deals aren’t new. I don’t think this is a substantial change in philosophy for teams or players.

Sean: How many major league innings will Daniel Lynch pitch this year?
Keith Law: Zero.

Sean: Who breaks settles into a rotation spot first – Adonis Medina or Spencer Howard?
Keith Law: Breaks or settles? Howard is the clear starter prospect. Medina is probably more likely a reliever than a starter.

Joe: Do some associate scouts get paid? I read a news article recently that said that an associate scout had to sign a contract with a team. How many associate scouts do most teams have?
Keith Law: That role barely exists today.

Dan: What are your thoughts on Jeter Downs? Does he have star upside? He had a very impressive debut last year but I haven’t seen a ton about him.
Keith Law: Above-average upside, not star.

Kevin : Any chance the screwball will come back in vogue, or is it to hard on your arm?
Keith Law: There’s a very strong belief throughout baseball that it leads to arm problems. I find that somewhat amusing because so does every other fucking pitch guys throw.

JP: no question, just a kudos to the Blue Jays for being first at Making America’s Pastime Resemble A Living Wage.
Keith Law: Absolutely – they’re not getting quite enough credit, IMO, because it’s easy to say that they didn’t do enough. They did more than any other team has done, by a lot, so why not praise them for it and hope it provides other teams with an incentive to follow suit or further raise the ceiling for minor leaguers?

Greg S: Would Navy RHP Noah Song be a day 1 pick were teams not contending with a 2 year military commitment? Is he the best service academy prospect to pop up?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, and I don’t know the answer to the second question. Probably better for Jim Callis, who’s done this longer.

Rico Brogna : Any reason to think if Pivetta adds more consistency that he can eventually be the #2 starter behind Nola?
Keith Law: No. His issue isn’t consistency.

Shane: Thoughts on the Woodstock 50 line-up?
Keith Law: I could not care less about that.

Jeff: The Mets seem serious about breaking camp with both Smith and Alonso. That’s dumb, right?
Keith Law: I just don’t know how you play either of them enough to figure out what to do with them both. If they had the DH spot for Alonso, sure, but for now they don’t.

Rick C: Again here you brought up the flaw of adding catcher framing to WAR. I would be curious how you reconcile this with the incorporation of other advanced defensive metrics into WAR that have only existed since the early 2000’s.
Keith Law: Because we have reasonable proxies for defensive value for previous eras. That’s a bad analogy.

J: 80’s Aerosmith vs
80’s Motley Crue
Keith Law: Blech. Crue started to go downhill after Too Fast for Love. I don’t think Aerosmith did anything good after the ’70s, though.

Slippery Pete: The Luzardo news makes me sad. Should I cling to the silver lining that it makes it easier for Oakland to navigate his innings limit this year?
Keith Law: Depends on whether his rotator cuff is just sore or actually screwed up.

Mike: The Giants have kept Bart in major league camp a long time. Is there anything to read into that or does it mean anything?
Keith Law: No, teams need extra catchers anyway.

MattB: Whenever I read your work, I always wish there were more people out there like you. People who were broadly curious and interested in the world. Thanks for everything!
Keith Law: Well that’s a very kind comment, thank you. I have always been a curious person, even as a kid. I feel kind of lucky that it never faded.

CH: How would you handle Mets catching situation? Think I’d go Ramos and Mesoraco
Keith Law: Seems like a good plan to me.

Jake L.: If you were given 400+ MIL, what would your 1st purchase be? Would you like to be seen as “rich and irrelevant”?
Keith Law: Rich and irrelevant seems like a wonderful fate to me. Granted, Mr. Trout has to work for that money, but I’d be plotting my retirement in Italy.

Graig: Is Ryan O’Hearn anything? Good numbers last year, seems to have the starting job, but I assume (being a regular reader of yours) I would’ve heard more about him by now
Keith Law: I think he can repeat what he did last year, or something close. Makes hard contact. Poor defender.

Drew: I’ve been struggling with anxiety recently, and reading your Stigma Fighters piece helped me regain equilibrium after trying to go off my SSRIs. I wanted to thank you for your openness in discussing your own mental health, and to ask whether you’ve ever tried the Headspace app for meditation.
Keith Law: Only briefly although my therapist has recommended it. I don’t meditate nearly often enough.

Brodie Van Jump on the Bandwagon: Keith– are you surprised how well Pete Alonso has hit (i.e., more than just HRs) this spring? Also very impressed how Dom Smith has done (don’t know if you saw the piece that he is using a CPAP machine for better sleep, so that is having a + impact.) The Mets say they may carry both. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I am not surprised by how well/poorly any player has done in spring training because it means nothing.

Kevin : Do you think the anti-vax people that attack you on Twitter are actual real people or from a troll factory?
Keith Law: Both. Some are bots. Some are parents whose children are neuroatypical (e.g., autistic) and have been unable to accept that their children are different, thus sending them to find someone to blame. They’re all dangerous to the rest of us, though.

alex: Os are having Mountcastle work at 1B as well as 3B this spring. Given his (lack of arm), would you have tried LF (I heard he has been or 2B) for him? Thanks
Keith Law: He is way too big for 2b. LF should work.

Kevin : Was there any other colleges besides Harvard you were considering?
Keith Law: I applied to 12, which is more to say my parents decided I would apply to 12 (bear in mind I was 16 at the time, hardly capable of deciding what to wear to school on any given day). Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Virginia, William and Mary, Georgetown, Colgate, Washington University, Cornell, Duke, Wesleyan, Johns Hopkins.
Keith Law: I ended up choosing between Harvard and William & Mary, which offered me some kind of scholarship and also seemed to offer a much better student experience. I would almost certainly have enjoyed W&M more, but I’m well aware what the Harvard name has done for me (and the privilege it affords me).

Jake L.: Is the Snell 15K pay raise really a “bad look,” considering he was sent down twice to AAA in 2017 because he was insanely inconsistent and inefficient and then it finally all clicked on for him in 2018?
Keith Law: No, it’s the damn system.

Danny: What charities do you give to?
Keith Law: My #1 charity has been the Food Bank of Delaware for the past several years. It’s direct help to people who need it. I just gave $500 to them last week out of my first advance payment for book number two, because they’re great and they’ve been building a new warehouse/facility. fbd.org.

Hunter Greene: Huge year for me this year. What level should I be pitching in by the end of the year?
Keith Law: Double-A would be great, but healthy is the most important thing.

Dan: What are your expectations on Joe Ross as he makes his full-season return from injury? On a similar note, any concern for Lance McCullers and his ability to keep that curve ball next year?
Keith Law: Considered Ross for the breakouts piece but couldn’t find a real reason for optimism beyond “I’ve always liked that guy.” And his stuff wasn’t as good last year when he did pitch. Concern on McCullers was/is ability to stay healthy with that arm action.

Mark: Have you ever eaten at any of Thomas Keller’s restaurants?
Keith Law: Only Bouchon Bakery which was great.

Jim: I can probably predict it, but any thoughts about the KY governor (guess which party) who took his (nine) kids to a “pox party”?
Keith Law: If you tolerate this, then your children will be next.

Todd: Still relatively high on Domingo Avevedo? It should be time for him to make it to the majors
Keith Law: Have I ever been high on him?

Frank: As a former resident of Arizona do you have anything to add to the general commentary that being president and attacking a deceased war veteran who served his country his entire life is about as classless and petty as someone can be?
Keith Law: Yes. Let him rant and attack. I had this thought the other day: If Warren ends up the Democratic candidate, and Trump spends months calling her “Pocahantas” and other slurs and just generally being awful, will it end up helping Warren by reminding anyone actually on the fence of the kind of person the President is?

Guest: Kirilloff seemed like a great pick in 17 when the Twins were able to get him with a mid round pick. Was the reason he was available that far into the round because he doesn’t play a premium position?
Keith Law: Yes, also a cold-weather kid, and not a premium tools/athlete. Always trepidation over bat-first HS position players.

Kyle KS: If you’re the Cardinals and your 4th starter is Wainwright and the battle for 5th starter is Gant, Gomber, Hudson, etc. you sign Keuchel right? Seems like if you’re going for it then you improve that back end rotation right?
Keith Law: (nods)

alex: Are you expecting any former top prospects to be DFA-ed as we get to opening day (because they are out of options)? If so, who is a great change of scenery candidate? thanks
Keith Law: Isn’t Swihart out of options? Not a DFA candidate but maybe a trade guy.

JP: why not start with a 2 batter minimum, instead of going straight to 3?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to this.

dave m: Seeing as Fully Present is your go to book for anxiety I assume you practice mindfulness. Did you have trouble at first applying the practice to your daily life? I’m struggling to figure it out. Thanks
Keith Law: I would say it took me a few years to get to the point where I could apply it in difficult situations – learning to stay present and not let the anxiety of a moment overwhelm me.

Johny: So Harvard was your safety school?
Keith Law: No that’s Yale.

Jake L.: In a conversation about Brandon Lowe, you said that stats like wRC+ really should not be used to evaluate prospects, what stats should be considered?
Keith Law: The problem with wRC+ is it rewards production in terms of present value, which is not quite what we want from prospects – we are considering future value, more than present. The first time I had a reader try to use a minor leaguer’s wRC+ to argue with me was for Chase Vallot, who posted a 138 wRC+ in just over a year in high-A … but with a 36% strikeout rate. I had seen Vallot a ton for Wilmington and knew he couldn’t hit decent pitching – but he beat up on bad pitching, of which there is enough in A-ball for a player to fatten up his stat line.

Jason: Jake Noll has had a fantastic Spring (.341/.426/.585) for the Nats. What are your views of him as a prospect?
Keith Law: Exactly what they were a month ago – not a prospect.

Brodie Van Jump on the Bandwagon: On your point about Trump and Warren, Trump is going to attack and belittle any candidate on the other side. He has literally jumped the shark and is a super-loose cannon. Whoever opposes him has to tactically use that to their advantage– bait him on occasion to show he’s off his rocker and then also show you can be compassionate, the adult in the room, and know your stuff (which he doesn’t.)
Keith Law: I agree, but I’m not sure every Dem candidate would know to do that, or be able to pull it off.

Kevin : Is it wrong for employers to have facial hair rules (like the Yankees)?
Keith Law: IMO, yes.

Austin: In a previous chat, you were skeptical of Garrett Hampson’s ability to hit in the majors because of his lack of power. Has anything you’ve seen in the Spring changed that at all?
Keith Law: No, because … wait for it … spring training stats are useless.

Jonathan: Mike Shawaryn a back of the rotation guy?
Keith Law: I think more likely a reliever but he has succeeded as a starter, with starter-level skills, so far.

Austin: Any thoughts on McMahon in Colorado?
Keith Law: I still like him but for whatever reason they don’t seem to want to commit to play him?

JP: ___% chance of a work stoppage after 2020
Keith Law: 31%.
Keith Law: I just made that number up but it’s not zero and it’s below 50%.

Austin: Any favorite among Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta?
Keith Law: Well one was in my breakouts column…

Kevin : In favor of shortening the season?
Keith Law: Strongly oppose.

Rick Sanchez : Lunatic goes on murderous rampage. Leadership bans assault rifles. Wait- we can do that??!
Keith Law: Amazing what can happen in a liberal democracy that isn’t overrun by corporate and PAC money.

scott: Do you think the NCAA will ever increase the number of baseball scholarships> and if so do you think we will see more of the top high school players choose college rather than the minors? Would that be good for baseball in general?
Keith Law: I’ve suggested this before, but MLB should fund more D1 scholarships, and in exchange demand better access for scouts at workouts, BP, and to players for predraft info gathering (interviews, psych tests, etc.), as well as mandatory pitch limits.

You Work is Appreciated: Just noticed recently no mention of Hjelle in your write up of SF system, though you had wrote about him predraft in decently positive terms. Just wanted to see if anything in particular kept him off your list for the giants.
Keith Law: He’s there. I just checked again after a brief moment of panic.

Dane: How do people who know/respect your insights enough that they follow you and/or come to your chats continue to ask you about how your opinion of a particular player has changed based on spring training stats? You give the same answer to that question EVERY SINGLE TIME you choose to answer it. Every single time.
Keith Law: Every year, too. It’s wishful thinking, really. I understand wanting your favorite team’s player to be better, but a couple of extra hard-hit balls in March don’t tell us anything.

CD: I know he is extremely young, but is Franco in the same class as a prospect as Acuna was?
Keith Law: Yes.

The Fonz: Has a player, manager, or GM ever admitted to you that he follows your chats?
Keith Law: All the time. Often because they like a joke or catch the song reference in the intro.

Ray: Why is everyone acting like someone getting Trump to act like a jerk will move the needle? He’s always been a jerk and his supporters love it. The only thing that will change 2020 is getting those who didn’t come out at all in 2016 to get out and vote.
Keith Law: Isn’t that a possible motivator, though?
Keith Law: I’d add to that getting people who voted third party in 2016 to vote blue. Every person who voted for Jill Crank’n Stein should be deeply ashamed.

JT: If I’m vaccinated and my children are vaccinated, are we safe from the spread of these diseases regardless of the essential oil crowd, or should I be more worried?
Keith Law: You should still be worried because the immune system, while a marvel of evolution, is still imperfect, and that you can still catch a vaccine preventable disease even if you’ve been vaccinated. Your odds of fighting it off are much, much higher, of course, but they are not zero, so pushing herd immunity – stopping the disease from spreading because enough people in a community have been vaccinated – is still extremely important.

Kevin : Is it a weird feeling being recognized in public?
Keith Law: It is, but readers who’ve recognized me have always been so nice that I have come to enjoy it. It’s also infrequent – it’s not like I’ve got people lined up outside this Cartel Coffee shop to take my picture or something. I’ve been recognized in some fun places, like in line at Disneyworld (twice!), by my server in a restaurant, by the manager in a different restaurant, on a rental car shuttle, etc.

Michael Conforto: Have you watched The Inventor? It must be my bubble but this story managed to fly right past me all these years.
Keith Law: Not yet, on my to watch list. I’m overwhelmed again – my daughter wants me to watch Doctor Who and I’ve watched all of one episode of the reboot (Christopher Ecceleston’s debut), plus a friend more or less ordered me to watch Catastrophe, and I want to watch The Inventor and another film on HBO this month, La Familia.

Brett: Will you get any reports on Southern Miss, any chance wallner will sneak into the teens?
Keith Law: Of the first round? I haven’t heard anything like that.

Hinkie: I know you liked Brandon McIlwaine as a HS player. Any chance he can get back to a top prospect now that he’s playing regularly at Cal. Is he a day two pick this June?
Keith Law: I’d buy day two. He’s hit OK so far but I don’t think cal has faced much good pitching.

Danny: Does it matter if you vote Jill Stein or third party in a safely blue state (NY or CA)?
Keith Law: She’s a raging anti-science crank. Anti-vax, anti-GMO, anti-glyphosate, etc. Hard no.

Tom C: It’s interesting remembering the various opinions that the Angels should trade Trout to build up the farm system, only now they have Trout forever and a budding farm system. Hooray for everything.
Keith Law: Yes, but they don’t have much pitching imminent. They will have to solve that problem next.

Brian: Ugh Corey Knebel heading to an elbow specialist with the Brewers very concerned. Do you think how the Brewers used their bullpen last year will have negative ramifications for this year? Jeffress is on the IL as well.
Keith Law: I’m not sure we know how to prevent relievers from getting hurt.

Kevin : Would you do away with the electoral college?
Keith Law: Of course.

Michael : What do you think of the Brewers adding all three of their young pitchers to the rotation? Good move, highly volatile?
Keith Law: I’m here for it. Teams can be a bit too risk-averse with prospects/rookies yet the Brewers have gone hard the other way, and I think it’s great.

Drew: I’m finally watching Brooklyn 99 and it is incredibly funny. Has Michael Schur become the GOAT in television productoin? his run of 4 shows is unbeatable IMO.
Keith Law: If only he understood the glory of hot fruit, he’d be the GOAT. Instead he’s just rich and irrelevant.
Keith Law: OK, I’ve got to get a few little things done before heading out to games this afternoon, so I’ll wrap this up here. Thank you all, as always, for reading and for all of your questions. I should be on schedule for a Thursday chat next week, after I’m home from AZ. Enjoy this last weekend of meaningless baseball!

The Mars Room.

Rachel Kushner’s The Mars Room sits atop that Pulitzer Prize predictions list I’ve mentioned a few times previously, the same that guided me to read There There (now at #2) and Asymmetry (my favorite of these three, but down to #11). Kushner’s book is a blindingly fast read built around a compelling central character, although the story itself fell short of my expectations and I was never sure what Kushner was trying to express in either the main story or the many subplots throughout the novel. It’s clearly a feminist novel, but perhaps too hopeless and scattered to get that core point across.

The Mars Room centers on Romy Hall, a woman serving two life terms for a murder that will be explained partway through the book, as she details her experience going from sentencing to jail and then serving time in a women’s prison in California while also giving flashbacks to the traumatic life that got her to this point. Romy encounters other women incarcerated for similar reasons, crimes against a society that had brutalized them first, as well as a small cast of unusual side characters who get more development than most secondary characters do in novels but whose stories end abruptly enough that their presence ends up unsatisfying.

The most prominent of these additional characters is the trans woman Conan, whose story would probably be worthy of her own book – although Kushner uses male pronouns to refer to her because the book is written in Romy’s voice, and Romy can’t see Conan as anything but male. Conan is originally sorted into a men’s prison, then is transferred to the women’s prison, but is kept separate from gen pop while authorities try to sort out what to do with her, during which time the other prisoners aware of her presence split into two factions around her status in the jail. This subplot was both as interesting and as nuanced as Romy’s until Kushner cut it short by turning it into a device to push Romy’s plot towards its denouement. It does the Conan character a disservice to use her as a prop rather than even beginning to truly explore the plight of a trans person in our prison system, or using a trans character to illuminate the way our prisons serve to dehumanize everyone incarcerated in them.

The other side characters who get more prominent billing in The Mars Room feel too tangential to the main story and end up distractions when it becomes clear that Kushner isn’t going to tie them together with Romy’s narrative. The dirty cop Doc ends up getting what’s coming to him, in a sense, but before then recounts his history of corruption and violence against suspects, provoked and unprovoked, but the connection to Romy is never established. The prison teacher Gordon at least has more to do with with Romy, in part because he becomes platonically involved with many of the prisoners he teaches, which means he inserts himself into Romy’s story and provides her with a critical piece of information that spurs the action that ends the book, although, again, he’s more of a prop than a fully-realized character (and, ultimately, not that interesting).

There’s one point of social criticism in The Mars Room that deserves far more exploration than Kushner gives it, although in fairness to her I’m not sure how much more she could have done within this plot. Romy committed a crime against someone whom she believed, with reason, posed a threat to her and her son, but her public defender refuses to let her testify (and explains why) and also has very little time to spend on her or any of his cases. If you are poor in this country and are arrested for a crime, you will get a public defender who is probably competent and capable but wildly overloaded with work and thus given no time to devote to cases where that same lawyer might achieve much better results for the client given more time. Locking Up Our Own looked at this same issue and gave a statistic that, I think, claimed that public defenders get an average of about four minutes to work on any specific case. This system is totally broken even before we ask whether it is biased against women who commit violent acts against men who assault them or threaten to do so. Romy has been broken against the wheel, and the act that put her in prison for life was, at the very least, worthy of more consideration and likely more mercy than she received. The ways in which this world robs women, especially women without means, of everything from their dignity to their agency to their lives, are myriad, and define the plot at the core of The Mars Room. Perhaps Kushner had the right kind of anger, but just needed another story to express it.

My Uncle Napoleon.

My Uncle Napoleon, written by Iraj Pezeshkzad, is an Iranian novel written in the 1970s and later banned by the theocrats who took power in the 1979 revolution, likely for indecency, as the book is really a comic romp set during World War II in Iran. Based loosely on some of the author’s own experiences in childhood, the book follows the narrator as he falls in love with his cousin Layli and watches his father, his Uncle Napoleon, and another uncle squabble over trial things and plot against each other, often with unexpected consequences, as they all live in attached houses owned by the titular blowhard.

He’s usually called Dear Uncle in the book itself, however, and he is its Ignatius J. Reilly, a bombastic, self-important tyrant, trying to rule his house but finding himself thwarted by his brothers and often other members of the household. He’s assisted by his butler, Mash Qasem, who prefaces nearly every statement with “Why should I lie … to the grave it’s ah, ah … !” The two have concocted an elaborate fantasy of fighting for independence against Britain and in Iran’s Constitutional Revolution, and Dear Uncle is convinced that the English are still out to get him, something the narrator’s father frequently uses to his advantage. The narrator’s mischievous, philandering uncle Asadollah Mirza often helps in various schemes or tries to prevent them from getting out of hand, all the while speaking of sex in code, referring to it as “going to San Francisco” (and later referring to other sex acts as other cities). Dustali Khan shows up thinking his wife is trying to cut off his “noble member,” and maybe he deserves it, although she is quick to fly off the handle and scream bloody murder. Other eccentric relatives and neighbors wander in and out of the story, which doesn’t have a real narrative arc to it other than the loose background story of the narrator’s pursuit of Layli, who is promised to another cousin, the feckless wimp Puri.

Although some of the humor in the book is rooted in Persian culture, most of it feels very universal – this could just as easily be a comedy of manners set on some English lord’s estate, a Downtown Abbey with more yelling and backstabbing and at least talk of sex, although characters in this book talk about San Francisco a lot more often than they actually go there. It’s a different picture of Iran than anything we’ve had in the media since the Islamic Revolution brought the Ayatollahs to power; the news gives us Iranian leaders screaming death to the U.S. and to Israel, cooking up anti-Semitic conspiracies, and funding terror groups around the region, while Iranian film has given us pictures of a society in a sort of arrested development, a country that could be an economic and cultural powerhouse if it were a liberal democracy. These characters feel universal, even with names that are less familiar to western minds – I didn’t realize that the Khan in Dustali Khan was an honorific, not a surname – and some historical allusions that sent me to Wikipedia.

Like A Confederacy of Dunces, My Uncle Napoleon is also very funny. There’s a slapstick element of physical comedy throughout the book, with characters waving knives and guns around, falling over each other, and, once, kicking another right in the noble member, hard enough that any plans to go to San Francisco must be put off for some time. There’s some very clever wordplay throughout the dialogue, especially when Asadollah is involved. (The narrator is the obvious stand-in for Pezeshkzad, but I did wonder if Asadollah was his own adult self arriving in the novel to comment on the goings-on.) On top of the lower-brow humor is a thick coating of farce, mocking the Iranian habit of blaming the English for various problems in the wake of the Anglo-Soviet invasion of Iran in 1941, while also taking aim at all dictators through the orotund title character, whose sound and fury generally signifies nothing, yet whose lack of rank or history of valor don’t stop him from proclaiming himself a great hero and trying to keep all of the relatives staying in his compound under his thumb. He’s constantly trying to exile various people around him, or have them arrested, or to have this one pose confess to a murder that didn’t happen just to save the family’s honor and avoid a public embarrassment. Near the beginning of the novel, there’s a family gathering when someone passes wind loudly enough to interrupt Dear Uncle, which leads to an enormous family row that the narrator’s father enjoys far too much. It’s absurd, and funny, and also a symbol of the kind of family quarrels we’ve all had or seen start from nothing and blow up into more than they ever should have become.

Whether the story goes anywhere is probably beside the point, since the journey itself is entertaining, but if you’re looking for a neatly tied bow around the book’s conclusion, you won’t really get it. The story ends abruptly, and there’s a brief epilogue, but we don’t get a traditional big finish. It didn’t matter to me at all – I don’t really remember what Ignatius J. Reilly did at the end of his book either, and that never stopped me from recommending it, as I would this one.

Next up: I’m a few books behind now but just finished Rachel Kushner’s The Mars Room and Karin Boye’s Kallocain.

Free Solo.

Free Solo was the only Oscar-nominated documentary I hadn’t seen at the time of the Academy Awards ceremony, and of course it was the winner for Best Documentary Feature, but it’s free to stream on Hulu now and certainly worth a watch … although I wonder if I got a very different message from it than many other people did. I don’t think this guy is a hero at all, nor is it really a portrait of a great achievement. Free Solo presents us with a sort of modern Don Quixote whose quest is inexplicable and maybe pointless, and who pursues the goal in this film with disregard for his own life and for the wishes of the person who is, or should be, the most important to him.

Alex Honnold is a free solo climber, which means he climbs giant, sheer rock faces without ropes or other safety gear. This is, as you might imagine, really fucking dangerous; at one point in this documentary we see brief video or photo montages of other famous free soloists who fell to their deaths. In Free Solo, directors Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin follow Honnold as he prepares to scale El Capitan, known as El Cap, a 3000-foot wall in Yosemite National Park in California, which nobody had free-soloed before. We know that he survived – had he died, the film might not exist, and his death would have made the news – although the way the documentarians filmed the ascent is itself noteworthy, and many of the drone shots, near and far, of El Cap are utterly breathtaking. There’s a scene at the end that gives you a sense of how small a human is in comparison to the rock itself, and I think it challenges our ability to understand the scale of the world around us.

Free Solo aims to be about much more than strictly the ascent, and it partially succeeds. Honnold is a different cat, to put it gently. He reveals things about his childhood that may explain his strange affect, and undergoes an fMRI at one point that tells him and us that his amygdala is not very sensitive to excitement, which likely contributes to his thrill-seeking behavior as well. He and his mother have extremely different stories of what his father, who died when Honnold was 19, was like. Honnold has lived in a van for years and keeps a rather ascetic existence, with bizarre habits that would seem to go along with just a peculiar choice of living arrangements. There’s a scene where he cooks some strange assemblage of vegetables and beans and then eats it with a giant, flat cooking spatula, as if no one ever showed him how to use utensils.

Early in the film, a new character appears, Sanni, who attended a book-signing of Honnold’s, slipped him her number, and has since become his girlfriend. (Nobody has ever slipped me a number at a book signing, so clearly climbing giant rocks > baseball stats.) She clearly loves him, although there’s never the sense that this is some sort of hero-worship, and she is actively working both to get him to participate in a normal, adult, romantic relationship, and to consider that chasing death with these free solo climbs now affects her life too. He’s strangely detached in most of his interactions with her – there’s one exception at the end of the movie when we see him react to her in new ways, like the egg cracked and he’s coming out of his shell – and comes off as unaware of her emotions much of the time. It does not help matters that Sanni is both very upbeat and very pretty, which I think had to bias me in her favor and likely will have the same effect on many viewers. She’s just – here’s that word – likeable, which makes Honnold look like Lukas Haas playing a character with Asperger’s by comparison.

Sanni’s arrival in the film was a necessary bit of luck, as she gives us the best window on to Honnold’s personality and pushes him at least a little to explain his motivation for continuing to climb increasingly dangerous cliffs. (It’s not mentioned in the film, but Honnold described himself in a 2011 interview as a “militant atheist,” and I can not imagine having the strong belief that there is nothing after death and then pursuing a career that is likely to lead to an early decease.) I don’t think Free Solo explains enough why Honnold does what he does; he comes off like a modern George Mallory, who answered the question of why he wanted to climb Mount Everest with the possibly apocryphal answer “Because it’s there.” We get something from that fMRI result, and more from his interactions with Sanni, but he’s still something of an enigma even at the end of it all, especially since there’s no good reason he has to climb without some sort of protection. When you watch him ascend, it is absolutely impressive and Vasarhelyi and Chin do a superb job of capturing his climb, but how he could do this when there’s someone on the ground who’s waiting to hear he survived and would be devastated if he didn’t, is completely beyond me.

Florida eats, 2019 edition.

I reached out to readers before my trip last week to the Palm Beach area and got far more suggestions than I could try in just over 48 hours there before I drove north. There were two very big hits in my opinion, the first one the unassuming Mediterranean Market and Deli in West Palm Beach, which is indeed a market of foods from the Levant that also offers wraps and platters to go (there’s no seating) at absurd prices. The shish tawook platter (chicken marinated in lemon juice and turmeric) was really too much food – more than a serving’s worth of chicken, plus large portions of rice pilau and hummus, a thin pita (closer to lavash), and a small salad like a fattoush without the bread. The chicken was superb, bright, tart, and not overcooked (also not Nimmo-cooked), and, as silly as it might sound, the rice was also just delicious. White rice can be so bleh, but this not only had flavor (prepared in broth, perhaps?) but was perfectly cooked, and had strands of vermicelli pasta as is traditional in cuisines like that of Lebanon. The hummus was probably the least interesting part of the platter in part because it was too thin.

I met a friend for dinner at Grandview Market in West Palm Beach, a food hall – get used to that term in this post – with a slew of options for dinner and desserts, so I partook of both. We each got sandwiches from El Cochinito, which of course specializes in slow-roasted pork; I got their namesake sandwich, on crusty bread with maduros and some sliced onion. It’s also too much food, and almost too inexpensive at $10. The original El Cochinito is in LA on Sunset Blvd, between Night + Market Song and Intelligentsia Coffee. For dessert, I followed my friend’s tip to get the rolled ice cream at Crema, which has an intimidating array of combinations on the menu, so I asked the guy who took my order what he’d recommend to someone who likes chocolate, coffee, and mint ice creams. He didn’t hesitate to push the Cafecito, which has ground coffee mixed right into the ice cream with a fudge swirl and some graham crackers on the site. Those were kind of superfluous – maybe that would work better if they crumbled on top – but the ice cream itself was rich and tasted like a sweetened caffe latte.

Many people recommended Leftovers, part of a trio of local restaurants run by the same family, but my meal there was disappointing for a simple and entirely preventable reason: They didn’t salt the fish. I ordered what is apparently their signature dish, the fresh fish of your choice (I went with triple tail on my server’s suggestion) coated with julienned sweet potato and then pan-fried until crispy, served over a giant kitchen-sink of a salad. The problem is that the fish wasn’t seasoned at all beneath the coating – not just undersalted, but unsalted, and you can’t recover from that mistake. It felt like such a waste of a beautiful piece of fish, and the coating itself was delicious (crispier than I would have guessed, since sweet potatoes don’t fry up as well as white potatoes do), but even with the coating and a rich key-lime garlic sauce, the fish itself was still just bland. I also tried their fried tuna and basil roll – wrapped like an egg roll and deep fried, so the tuna ends up cooked as if it had been seared – which was interesting, mostly because of the wasabi dipping sauce, because the fish itself was kind of bland despite being of high quality.

Avocado Grill was another reader recommendation and had the advantage of being very close to the Nationals/Astros’ park, where I was headed on Saturday night but didn’t have a long window for dinner. (They have two locations; this was the one in Palm Beach Gardens.) I ordered a beet salad to start and fish tacos for my entrée, and both had the same issues: very good inputs, very little flavor. The salad had no dressing on it, and the fish was underseasoned itself so it relied on the other toppings, including a lime-ginger dressing and a fruit salsa, to give it any taste. Again, as with the Leftovers meal, someone here is buying the right ingredients, but the technique here is lacking.

I had coffee both mornings I was in the area at Subculture, which you can also get at the Nationals/Astros park; the pour-over coffee was fine, but I’d skip their espresso, which I thought was overextracted. I ordered a macchiato, my preference for espresso drinks, but it was just a double shot with some overfoamed milk spooned on top, not poured in so it integrates a little with the coffee.

I did better in Orlando, fortunately. Hunger Street Tacos was the best place I visited, even with their beef-heavy menu. I went with the chicken and chorizo taco, the hibiscus and avocado taco, and the elote street corn (shaved off the cob, so it’s better for sharing). The chicken and chorizo was the better of the two, but the hibiscus taco was certainly the most unique I’ve ever tried: the flowers are shredded and sautéed, so they look like dark red cabbage but have a profile like that of sweet red wine – not quite as sweet as a port but in that vein. Their fresh limeade is not short on the lime juice, either.

Swine and Sons is a spinoff of local stalwarts The Ravenous Pig, having taken over a nearby storefront when they first opened before moving into one of two local food halls I visited on this trip, this one inside a Meat House that’s across a large Winter Park intersection from the Pig’s location. Their focus, as you might imagine, is pig, including house-made charcuterie, but I was there early for breakfast (served all day) and got the very simple “eggs on a bun” – fried eggs, house-made bacon, and tomato jam (cheese optional) on a very good bread. The bacon was the star, as you’d hope, and this was worth more than $7 when you consider the quality and craft behind it. They also offer chilaquiles and avocado toast as breakfast options, and their weekend breakfast menu is twice as big.

Se7en Bites offers to “fill your pie hole,” if you were unclear on their concept; this food is not for the literally faint of heart. They also serve breakfast all day, and while I’m not normally a big fan of benedicts (mostly because Canadian ‘bacon’ is just bad ham), their house benedict is something else: a buttermilk garlic biscuit with a medium egg, a slice of fried green tomato, a few strips of bacon, and a peppery hollandaise sauce poured over the top … and then poured again over the top half of the biscuit. I ordered extra bacon, because we’re all going to die soon anyway so why not enjoy it. (I didn’t actually finish the biscuit, which is good but so heavy.)

Pizza Bruno does Neapolitan style pizza with some other small dishes from the wood-fired oven (including garlic knots with “too much garlic,” as if such a thing were possible), with a traditional dough and both traditional and very non-traditional (cheddar cheese? pineapple?) toppings available. I stuck with the traditional because I’m not a fucking savage, getting a margherita with mushrooms, and would put a 50 or solid-average grade on it, with the dough the best part but the pizza overall too salty, I think because they grate quite a bit of pecorino romano on it right out of the oven.

For coffee in Orlando, I went back to Foxtail in Winter Park, a favorite of mine from a few years ago, and also tried Lineage’s location in the East End Market, a wonderful food hall with a patisserie, a cheesemonger, a juice bar, a ramen place, and more. Lineage is a third-wave roaster and had a few single origins, including a Rwandan coffee from the Kigeyo washing station from near Lake Kivu. Their description promised floral and green apple notes but I tasted a warm spice in the finish, both cinnamon and clove.

Finally, for anyone headed to Walt Disney World during the Flower & Garden show, I can offer a few suggestions on the food at the kiosks this year, since I ate dinner that way one night while also doing some shopping for my daughter, niece, nephew, and some friends’ kids. The best dish I ate was from the Travel & Trellis kiosk: a farm ‘meatball’ wrap, made with Impossible lab-grown meat and served on a lentil-flour bread, which is probably not selling the carnivores among you … but I would really not have been able to tell you this was a meat alternative had I not known that going in. The chocolate pudding at the same stand was the worst thing I ate, so maybe give that a miss. The tuna tataki (Citrus Blossom) was fine, although I think I’d have liked that better raw than seared, and the duck confit with tomatoes and olives with a tiny square of polenta (Fleur de Lys) was also solid. The better choice for dessert was the warm chocolate cake with bourbon-salted caramel sauce and spiced pecans from the Smokehouse, by the USA pavilion. I didn’t care for the karaage, Japanese fried chicken, from the Hanami stand by Japan – I know what karaage is, but this didn’t match up – and never got to a few more things I wanted to try because by then I was very full.

Stick to baseball, 3/16/19.

New ESPN+ content this week included a Grapefruit League scouting notebook and a draft blog post on Carter Stewart and Matt Allan. I also held a Klawchat on Friday.

At Paste, I reviewed Tiny Towns, a new, light strategy game from AEG that has players placing resources on their boards to try to match set patterns, but where you have to take whatever resources your opponents take as well, which means you can easily get screwed by someone else’s choices, especially with more players (it handles up to 6).

My email newsletter is alive and well, and also free, with more of my writings whenever the spirits move me.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 3/15/19.

I have a new draft blog post up, on Carter Stewart and Matt Allan, as well as a Grapefruit League scouting roundup, both for ESPN+ subscribers. My latest board game review for Paste covers Tiny Towns, a pattern-matching game with a clever twist that makes the game harder but faster.


Keith Law: You expose the film in me. Klawchat.

addoeh: Belated Pi Day greetings. What kind of hot fruit did you enjoy last night?
Keith Law: No hot fruit here, but we did have pizza.

SeanE: Legal issues aside, should the Pirates just put Kang at SS and live with the below average defense and (likely) above average offense?
Keith Law: Probably better to plug him in at 3b; don’t think he’d be even a 45 defender at short now given his age and injuries. (I wouldn’t roster him at all, though, because of his off-field issues.)

John: Hi Keith – big fan of your analysis. With it very unlikely Kimbrel is going to land a long term “Chapman-like” deal, would it behoove him to take a 1-year deal and hope the market improves next off season or take the longest term, most lucrative deal offered knowing that it might be his last big contract now heading north of 30 years old?
Keith Law: I’ve been sympathetic towards the players as a whole this offseason since I think it’s clear the owners are banking profits, but Kimbrel and his agent could not have misread the market any worse. He came off a down year by his own standards, was awful the last time we all saw him, and then asked for a contract that would have been the longest ever given to a reliever. Teams in that market spent their money elsewhere. If someone offers him two years now he should take it. Just maximize short-term earnings, knowing the long-term is always volatile for you as a pure reliever (with control questions now), and that the market’s future is very hard to predict.

Aaron C.: As someone who’s been in the industry, do you have any general insight as to how players *really* feel about these international games? Players always *say* they love it publicly, but I’ve always had a hard time believing these creatures of habit like their routines uprooted to play in Japan, England, etc.
Keith Law: I don’t think they like it from that standpoint – it’s exhausting to change time zones to that extent. But I do think they like the cultural aspect. Players are still people so I’m sure some love it because the latter is more important than the former. I happen to enjoy international travel – granted, I don’t have to roll off the plane on to the mound – so I view the physical toll as a cost I’m willing to bear to go experience another culture.

Jeff: So I’m at the Giants/A’s game in Scottsdale last week, and when Bumgarner was pitching, they had the radar gun off. It was on for all A’s, and for other Giants. Is this a team decision? a Bumgarner decision? A little bit of both. He didn’t look great, just wanted to see if this is common practice, since I have never seen it before.
Keith Law: Probably the team’s decision but I don’t know.

JR: Were you “on” the sailing team or crew team at Harvard?
Keith Law: I was not, although oddly enough, they invited me to try out as a coxswain simply because of my weight and size. (I had no interest.)

Rod: Do you see a 40-HR season for Acuña?
Keith Law: I do not.

Scott Upham: Does Kyle Tucker have anything to prove in AAA? Looks like he is ready for prime time to me.
Keith Law: I agree.

parlay: Austin Hays is having a strong spring for the Orioles- hitting to all fields again, and several XBH. Should we toss out 2018 because of the injuries and jump back on his 2017 hype train?
Keith Law: Don’t toss 2018 out entirely, but consider weighting it less than you would for most players. He was a back-end top 100 guy after 2017, and i think if you project average regular for him you’ll be in a good spot.

Jim: What are you thoughts on the rules changes MLB is tinkering with? If you’ve written that up, apologies in advance and shoot me a link 🙂
Keith Law: There were a lot, so maybe ask me about specific ones if you’re curious. The one that I liked the most was capping commercial breaks in between innings; now get rid of commercial breaks for pitching changes and we’re really cooking. I’m also glad we’re not seeing a pitch clock, and dismayed that MLB is pushing the 3-batter minimum rule through without the union’s consent.

Jscott022: Of the young pitchers who have a chance to crack the braves opening day rotation (Wright, Touki, Wilson, Fried) which two would you take to follow Newcomb, Gaussman, and Teheran?
Keith Law: I’d put Wilson, Touki, and Fried in the rotation and bounce Teheran.

JR: Which team surprises the most this year and is way better than preseason projections?
Keith Law: I’ll do a predictions column in two weeks.

Mark: What happens if teams wont let their pitchers throw from 2 feet back citing injury concerns? Obviously, the league can just say throw like its a normal distance, but I feel like this wasn’t thought out very well.
Keith Law: I think that rule change is 100% likely to cause injuries.
Keith Law: Like, just don’t. It’s a stupid idea. I’d rather they lower the mound if anything.

James: New pizza/pasta place called Fellow in old town Scottsdale area (Giants) might be worth checking out
Keith Law: Thank you, it’s on my to-do list because the menu was designed by Claudio Urcioli (Pa’ La, ex-Noble Eatery).

Josh: Standard small sample/spring training caveats aside, I’m in a mad scramble to buy back my Austin Hays stock. Super impressed with his bat speed and defensive range. What say you?
Keith Law: Defensive range? No.

Jack: Is Luzardo ready to be a major-leaguer right now?
Keith Law: In what role? To simply be on a major league staff, yes. To be a league-average starter, I’d say less than a 50% chance of that right this minute.

Scott Upham: As a Detroit Tigers fan, it seems like Christian Stewart and Daz Cameron will contribute in 2019 but do they have any budding superstar position players in their entire system?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Joel: Keith, I finally was able to watch the movie Detroit. It was unbelievably hard to watch, although I thought it was outstanding. Your thoughts?
Keith Law: Never saw/not interested based on reviews.

Julian: Hunter Barco a top 20 pick with improved strength and arm angle?
Keith Law: Not impossible but I think unlikely.

John: Have you seen/heard of any improvement in Chris Paddacks curveball?
Keith Law: No. I don’t think it will ever improve in a significant way.

Dale: So AZ spring training is far far superior to FL spring training. Baseball, weather, food, girls, driving distance to all the parks. Wouldn’t you agree ?
Keith Law: Yes. I like how you slipped “girls” in there as if that’s a major criterion, by the way. But weather, food, proximity, access to non-baseball culture are all there.

Jim: Mostly i was concerned about the 3 batter min… seems like using an AX for a scalpel problem
Keith Law: I would agree. Why not a two-batter minimum?

Thomas: Would you have the same career right now if you had gone to Arizona State instead of Harvard?
Keith Law: It seems unlikely. There is no doubt that having the two schools I attended on my resume has helped me in my professional life and career. That’s why this scandal is a big deal, IMO.

Dale: So a guy on the Royals is starting opening day that I’ve never heard of. Their weak division might be the o my thing to save them from being all time bad.
Keith Law: I think it’s amazing that a rule 5 pick (you’re talking about Brad Keller, I assume) is their Opening Day starter in his second year. I don’t think he’s as good as his 2018 ERA implies, but that’s a solid find in the usually barren rule 5 draft.

Will: With the new 3-batter rule, will teams now consider grooming some would-be starter prospects into middle inning guys?
Keith Law: That’s already happening. More likely that potential LHR in the draft get hurt, unless they show a weapon for RHB.

Julian: When will your next draft projection be?
Keith Law: If you mean a ranking, like the one I just did, probably in mid-April. I won’t project the first round until May because I have always maintained that anything before that cannot be sufficiently sourced.

Steve: General scouting question for you — can seeing a player in one game dramatically change your opinion of them? Say you came in thinking someone had 40 power but then you see them in their first game of the season hit a dinger 425 feet. Does that happen often where what you thought you were going to see one thing and it’s a totally different player?
Keith Law: Sort of? But maybe not for power. Velocity comes to mind, or even just seeing a pitch I didn’t think a guy had before.
Keith Law: Or just seeing that someone’s body is really different.

Thomas: Hypothetically speaking, if you have an OF with three all-stars and then a young stud in waiting like Eloy, couldn’t you just keep him on the 40 man for years until the stars aren’t as good? Thinking the old FL outfield with Stanton, Yelich and Ozuna, there wouldn’t have been any room for an Eloy.
Keith Law: I think the player would have a grievance after some extended period in AAA where, presumably, he’s demolishing the league.

Jim: Do you see the Yankees grabbing another SP with the latest Severino news?
Keith Law: I would absolutely support them signing Gio.
Keith Law: Will they? I don’t know. But I think he fits.

Justin: Can Dakota Hudson eventually be a league average starter? Or do you think he is bullpen bound? Sounds like STL prefers him over Gant for the 5th starter role.
Keith Law: Pen guy for me. Limited history of staying healthy, very reliant on that cutter.

Dale: Did you see Jeters comments saying paraphrase: “many Fans come to the game and leave the stadium not even knowing or remembering who won”
Keith Law: I did. That’s probably true for me, but I don’t attend games as a fan.

PhillyJake: Cole Tucker arrival in the majors?
Keith Law: Could debut this year but I don’t see impact.

Gus: Hello KLaw, The one new rule that I don’t understand the most from either management or the union side is why limit rosters after September 1? Isn’t it the best interest of the clubs to give as many minor league players possible exposure to the MLB environment?
Keith Law: They haven’t been calling up many guys for years now. I would have liked a limit a bit higher, maybe 30-32, but nobody was calling up the entire 40-man roster like they did in the 1980s. Too much expense and particularly risk if the player came up and got hurt in September or in major-league camp the following March.

Scott C: Donaldson was a worthwhile move, but could you have imagined a worse offseason for the Braves? What are they doing?
Keith Law: Standing pat and betting on internal improvements. Not a terrible strategy, but I think there was some low-hanging fruit in free agency they could have chased.

Scott Upham: Tampa’s injury recovering Jose DeLeon was once one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. What is the best outcome for him now?
Keith Law: He was a solid prospect, not one of the tops; I think there’s league-average starter potential, but it will depend on how his fastball plays. There was some concern it was a little light for him as a starter.

section 34: Which pitchers historically would have been hurt the most by the 3-batter rule? Jesse Orosco came to mind immediately but he could pitch to righties until the very end.
Keith Law: Tony Fossas.

Mac: How much does Vaughn have to hit to justify being picked ahead of Witt Jr or Abrams? Does he have to be the best hitting 1B in baseball for 5+ years?
Keith Law: There’s an implicit assumption there about Witt Jr/Abrams that I’m not sure we entirely agree on, but you omit the other benefit Vaughn might offer: proximity. He’s in the majors in 12-18 months. Maybe sooner if he’s really this good right now. (I’ll see him in a week.) A win today is worth more than a win in five years to contending clubs – and, I believe, in the trade market.

Pat D: I’m trying to eat better and lose weight. I need to broaden my horizons in terms of what I eat, and therefore need to learn to cook better. Are there any dishes you can recommend that are either way
Keith Law: Center your meals on the plants, not the proteins. I think the American diet has always started with the question of what meat we were cooking, and then what sides go with that (steak, therefore potatoes and something green). Instead, start with vegetable dishes and work ‘inward.’ Ottolenghi’s Simple and Hugh Acheson’s The Broad Fork are great vegetable (but not strictly vegetarian) cookbooks.

Mark: Have you heard anything on Corbin Carroll this year yet?
Keith Law: He was in my draft ranking two weeks ago.

Bob Pollard: Saw data in a couple of tweets yesterday that one-batter pitcher appearances are declining. If that’s the case, then why get rid of them?
Keith Law: Eyewash.

JD: I know he’s only 24, but after three identical years do we know what Nomar Mazara has? Or do you still think there’s more to come?
Keith Law: There is more potential there. The probability of him getting to it has declined, but it is still there. A few of my breakout candidates from 2018 didn’t break out but I would double down on them, including him and Giolito, for 2019.

Brendan: Hey Keith, have you read Field of Dreams? I just found out the film was based on a book and was curious if it’s worth picking up. Thanks!
Keith Law: I haven’t. I don’t read much baseball stuff – reading is a hobby and a sort of meditation for me, so I want something different.

Jim: Do you attend a regular boardgaming group? Any games that work well on the road for you? (solo or otherwise). I travel a bit for work and carry a few sometimes.
Keith Law: I co-host a family game night at my local library, and I’ve played with some readers in the area a few times, and joined Bill Baer (NBC Sports, and a total pinko commie)’s game group a couple of times too. (That’s the only time I’ve played 7 Wonders with 7 people. Still great, but so different from the 3-5 player experience.) I often bring One Night Ultimate Werewolf on trips because it’s portable and quick. Jaipur is a great, portable two-player game. The Mind is always in my scouting bag these days to.

steve: I would think that service time issues would be less important for a pitcher. Do teams reflect that when the consider young pitchers in big leagues
Keith Law: A reader mentioned this around Paddack yesterday and I disagreed with him, saying I didn’t think manipulating a pitcher’s service time (especially one with a TJ already on his dossier) was worth doing because nobody can reasonably project a pitcher’s performance and health seven years out. That is just being too clever by half. There is a reason not to promote a pitcher too soon, which is that he might get hurt, as Michael Kopech did, and cost you a year of service and salary. (I say that having argued for Kopech’s promotion last summer. It didn’t work out.)

Steve: Wander Franco or Willie Adames more likely to move to 3B eventually?
Keith Law: Adames for me.

Mac: I know you said you only scout the top of the draft but when you’re at an amateur game do you only bear down on the guy you’re there to see or do you watch other guys who may be later round picks?
Keith Law: If they’re notable. I mentioned a 2020 guy in my draft post this week because he played against Matt Allan.

JD: I’ve always suspected that Manfred’s pace-of-play push is motivated less by a belief that fans care, and more because shorter games are more profitable for business reasons (concentrating ad revenue opportunities, higher carriage fees because it doesn’t crowd out other programming, who knows). Is that an unfair suspicion? If not, what’s the mechanism that actually makes shorter games more profitable?
Keith Law: I have had this suspicion too – would shrinking ad inventory mean higher prices for the inventory that remains? Does viewership decline with game length beyond some threshold? I lack the data to evaluate those suspicions though.

TP: Any good reasons why Texas wouldn’t just let Willie Calhoun play everyday?
Keith Law: Where?

John: I know you’ve answered the question a 1000 times about working in MLB and your reasons re: family, flexibility etc. are obviously very important and reasonable.

Are there times when you’re evaluating prospects though and feel like this isn’t for real? That you’re scouting but not getting any action from your work product?
Keith Law: I may not quite follow the question, but the ‘action’ i get is from you guys. You read, and you pay to read. What more could I possibly ask for? There’s no gratification for a writer like knowing your work is read and valued.

Tommy Fresh: with all the new All Star festivities this year with the election and stuff – will MLB bring in Entertainment 720 to run the show
Keith Law: Pawnee to Cleveland isn’t too bad of a drive.

Ed: If Elvis Luciano pitches like hot garbage this year, is it still worth keeping him on the Jays roster for future potential? What is 1 spot on the 25-man roster worth to a non-playoff bound team?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s worth doing. Not only is it a dead roster spot, now he doesn’t develop, and he makes more money next year, and there’s the risk he blows out and gets all that salary and service time, and stays on your 40-man, and so on.

Del : Where do you see Dom Smith’s in May: Mets 1st Base, AAA, another team?
Keith Law: Mets 1b.

Rod: Sean Newcomb ever gonna get the walks under control?
Keith Law: I have asked the question of “how” for a while now and I don’t have or hear a good answer.

addoeh: From your last newsletter (insert link to sign-up here), you talked about teams quickly sending up very young players to advanced levels to trick other teams models. Are there teams that will exclusively pick HS seniors and JuCo freshman late in draft to fill-out rosters instead of college seniors to get more opportunities?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard any of that, probably because the HS seniors would ask for more money to sign.

Layne: Recently bought Patchwork after reading your review. Great game. Any 2-player games coming up later this year that you’re eagerly anticipating?
Keith Law: Not off the top of my head but I am always listening. I have Wingspan (1-4 players) here to review, and Solenia (I think also 1-4). I know Corinth, an Yspahan reimplementation as a roll-and-write game, is coming soon, and the original had a solid 2-player variant. But nothing strictly two-player that I’ve heard about just yet.

Scott Upham: Bo Bichette is showing off all his tools in spring training. Other than service time, is there any reason he shouldn’t be the Jays starting SS on Opening Day?
Keith Law: He’s not a good shortstop.

Tim: Any thoughts on Anderson Espinoza return from TJ?
Keith Law: No. Haven’t seen him. Minor league games start today for all 30 clubs, I believe.

JD: I’ve found Splendor to be a great portable game — the whole thing fits in a quart plastic bag, and can be taught in two minutes.
Keith Law: Yes, very good call. Also plays well with two. Carcassonne is also very portable.

Bob Pollard: Sorry, I don’t understand the eyewash comment. Are you saying the data is wrong or MLB is trying to fix a problem that doesn’t exist? Or neither?
Keith Law: Eyewash refers to a solution without a problem, or something you do for perceived value rather than actual value.

Paul Dolan: Do you believe me when I say my team is losing money every year and has lost a lot in the last few years?
Keith Law: I don’t, and even so, your franchise value is appreciating, but that’s not reflected on the income or cash flow statements that you don’t issue to the public.

Geoff: Do you know anything about Trejyn Fletcher who’s now gonna be draft eligible this year as opposed to 2020?
Keith Law: He’s not draft eligible this year, not yet at least. It is possible he will be. He’s a prospect with some questions about the hit tool and a strong commitment to vanderbilt.

Tom: Any thoughts on Ketel Marte playing CF?
Keith Law: If it’s him or Adam Jones, I’ll try Marte. Good athlete, but experience helps in CF.

Tom: Is there any chance that Mountcastle can play a decent 2B, since the issue seems to be his arm, or is he a 1B / COF only?
Keith Law: Cannot see that body and build in the middle of the field.

Confused: This week while visiting my in-laws, my father-in-law–who is a great dad to my wife and grandfather to my child–called Aladdin Jasmine’s “Towelhead” boyfriend. He was quickly reprimanded by his wife, but doesn’t change the fact it happened. How do I reconcile these two polar opposites? It’s extremely troubling, especially as my daughter gets older and Fox News is constantly on the TV…
Keith Law: Harder since it’s not your dad, but consider talking to him about watching his tongue in front of your child. I have had a somewhat similar issue and asked someone to refrain from saying certain things in front of my daughter. It was an uncomfortable conversation but it resolved the issue.

Mike: Amed Rosario look primed for a breakout?
Keith Law: I would like to say yes, but i think he’s still putting the ball on the ground too much.

Lyle: Mariners starting catcher in 2022: 1) Omar Narvaez, 2) Cal Raleigh, 3) Not in system.
Keith Law: Mostly likely 3 but Raleigh is good.

ffballmaster: Have you ever “discovered” a guy? Like went to look at one player scouts told you to look out for and then found another you put on the scouts’ radar?
Keith Law: No, because I don’t go see amateur players unless scouts have already directed me there.

Beetlejuice: Is the service time issue only relevant to players players with a clear path to Major League ABs? Seems easy to imagine a scenario where a player is blocked by an incumbent, held down in AAA so he can get regular ABs, but it’s still unfair to the player from a $$ standpoint because he’s ready to contribute at the major league level. A fix for this problem should be factored into next CBA too, no?
Keith Law: Not sure how you’d fix that, unfortunately. A player who’s blocked by a legitimate major league option is temporarily out of luck.

Ethan: Did you read the story I sent you on Twitter this morning regarding the shootings? I appreciated the like, but just wondering if you actually read it.
Keith Law: Of course, I don’t hit Like if I don’t read and like the story attached.

Mike: Is Logan Davidson a top 10 pick?
Keith Law: Today, absolutely not.

Nick: You see Austin Hays 440 foot shot to dead center?! Think he starts the year in Baltimore?
Keith Law: Gabe Gross led spring training with 8 homers one year.

Bruce: In all fairness, you can’t pay players in Franchise Value, much like you can’t pay athletes in tuition credits.
Keith Law: No, but you can borrow against it, or sell equity, if you’re actually that strapped for cash.

finny: What are the chances at this point that Dane Dunning actually doesn’t have to have TJ surgery? He was hurt last fall, he’s hurt again, and he’s visiting Dr. James Andrews. Isn’t TJ just an inevitability?
Keith Law: I’d like to be wrong but it feels like it.

MJ: Do you think Bryse Wilson can make the opening day rotation, and if so what kind of season do you project for him?
Keith Law: Too many guys ahead of him but I think he could do it. Slider looked better when I saw him Tuesday and he fills the zone.

Brandon J: Aside from taking three years off his age, what does Tony Gonsolin need to do this year to reach or surpass the lofty standing of his fellow Dodgers’ prospect Dustin May
Keith Law: He’s not catching May for potential. He’s plenty good on his own, though. Three legitimately above-average pitches. Good athlete. Heck of a pick by the Dodgers.

Andie: Is tanking for higher draft picks as big of a concern in MLB as it is in the NBA? Are there discussions / conversations about how to minimize / eradicate it?
Keith Law: Less of a concern specifically – as in, teams do not tank specifically for higher draft (and international) position. It’s more like a fringe benefit to deciding you’re not going to spend money to chase after your 71st win. Part of that philosophy was to play your own prospects or hunt for value on waivers/minor league free agents, but not every non-competitive team is doing that second part, and then you get tanking.
Keith Law: Also, I’m good with changing the top of the draft to eliminate any incentive to lose more games. The only reason the team with the worst record picks first is because we’ve always done it that way.

Jordan: Starting to go through your top 100 novels list, will there be an update sometime? Thanks!
Keith Law: I would really like to – it’s on the list of things I’d like to do on the dish. I did get the Philly restaurants list posted, so that was an accomplishment.

Hank: Jesse Winker. Can he add some power to his elite on-base skills?
Keith Law: I think that park helps him more than it will most players.

Nick: Any idea who has registered the highest exit velocity since it’s been tracked?
Keith Law: Judge, right?

KC: What can a healthy Jorge Soler still be for the Royals?
Keith Law: Above-average regular in RF.

Mick: Are you surprised how well Tulo is playing short? Looks like he’s locked in to start there with the Yanks.
Keith Law: It’s spring training. Nothing surprises me, and almost none of it matters.

Ryan V.: Have you had a chance to play Root’s Riverfolk expansion yet? I just saw that Leder Games has a second expansion in the works, but have not yet managed to try out Riverfolk, and am curious to know how the expansions affect the game’s experience…
Keith Law: I haven’t – I rarely play expansions since I’m always trying new games.

Kevin : Weird question…my mom (who is 69) and I are aligned politically (both despise republicans). However, she is very religious…me not so much. The other day her church had a speaker in about evolution vs creationism etc. This guy was going through the earth is only 18,000 years old routine. Mom and I had an argument about it (I even gave her bill nyes book)…how would you handle this?
Keith Law: Nice. I might try sources who try to reconcile or at least don’t try to divide science and faith – really, I think most religious people accept that the earth is 4 billion years old. Young Earth Creationists are dumb, but they’re also a minority.

Kevin : Are you going to arod/jlo wedding?
Keith Law: I assume my invitation is in the mail.

Mike: If you were a GM, would you want your player impeding in the HR derby’s? A lot of money for the player if they win, but seems to mess up swings.
Keith Law: It doesn’t mess up swings – that’s a myth. Let the kids play.

Tom C: Brendan: the book for Field of Dreams is called “Shoeless Joe”. It’s a worthwhile read, but it’s also pretty different than the movie.
Keith Law: Thanks.

Michael Conforto: The Mets should absolutely upgrade from Vargas to Keuchel right?
Keith Law: Yes but they won’t.

Ryan: Do you have any ideas what players the Dbacks are targeting in the draft? If its too early for that, what do you think their strategy should be? Thank you!
Keith Law: Too early. Take the best players available, which may entail moving a little money around to grab some first-rounders who fall, since the Dbacks have several extra picks.

DF: Re. the Reds. If they are out of it in July, do you see a chance to recoup similar value to what they gave up with Puig, Wood, etc.?
Keith Law: Zero chance.

mike sixel: Could use a top 100 movies list……
Keith Law: Someone asked that in the comments recently … I feel like I have too many gaps in my own movie-watching history that I couldn’t do a credible list.

Uli Jon: Started “Lincoln in the Bardo”. I like experimental but almost gave up on it. Now I’m all in and I think it might be genius. Thanks for the recommendation.
Keith Law: Similar reaction – at the start I thought it might be a gimmick, but it’s brilliant.

Ron: Hi Keith-did you check out, Kiriloff, Lewis or Javier at all? Any chance to?
Keith Law: I linked to my ST notes above. I did not go to the west side of Florida at all.

Scott: Have you seen/read Girl on a Train and if so what were your impressions?
Keith Law: No. Not sure I’ve heard of that.

Andy: Who does taking away the August waiver trading period help? Like, who was pushing for that? I would think that some players, especially those nearing the end of contracts, would WANT to go to playoff teams. GMs want to turn their Gios into an A ball reliever with a small chance. Owners want to save small amounts of money if their season isn’t going well. Why was that one of the changes that one side wanted?
Keith Law: I’m not sure but I wondered if players disliked the disruption to their own lives of late-season trades.

Jake Lawson: So…Wil Myers in center and Mike Moustakas at second. Are either of them likely to be even passable at these positions?
Keith Law: Moustakas probably not. Myers hell no.

Todd: In all seriousness, how much is Fox News to blame for our current mess?
Keith Law: A lot. More than people wish to acknowledge. Maybe it’s time to ask establishments you frequent that have televisions going all the time to turn it off.

Rick Sanchez: When do you think Hiura hits the majors?
Keith Law: July.

Adam: Love the chats Keith, thanks for taking the time to do them. With Sano’s latest injury, it’s hard for this Twins fan to see any reason that he’ll be successful consistently long term. Do you think he’ll ever put it together?
Keith Law: For stretches, at least. Lot of hitting ability and raw power, with an idea at the plate.

Imre: Just wanted to pop in and proudly say we got out 4 year old daughter her latest round of vaccinations yesterday!
Keith Law: Excellent news. Most of us are sane. If we convince another tiny sliver of the population to join us in vaccinating our kids, many or most of these outbreaks will stop.

Kevin : I asked my employer to stop playing Michael Jackson on the intercom…small step but hopefully more follow suit.
Keith Law: I’m actually surprised that more outlets haven’t just quietly shelved his music.

SeanE: Would you say the same about CNN? They clearly have bias the other way. Not sure there is objective media anymore….at least in national politics.
Keith Law: AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH oh that is fucking hilarious.

Todd: The democratic nominee in 2020 is…….?
Keith Law: Dunno but I’m voting for them.

Tom: How would you resolve service time manipulation?
Keith Law: You can’t, right? You can make it harder, and you can make it less lucrative/valuable, but you can never truly stop it.
Keith Law: Paying minor leaguers more would help. I’ve seen proposals for tying free agency to total time in pro ball, minors + majors, and for tying it to age. Each proposal has benefits over the status quo and will also disadvantage certain players.

Geoff: Gritty 2020?
Keith Law: Oh hell yes.

Johnny Lecherous: Happy Friday, KLaw. Last week someone asked if 2007 #5 overall draft pick Matt Wieters was a bust. Checking the 50 top 5 picks in the decade from 1997-2006, the average career total was 15-16 WAR — compared to just under 20 for Wieters. (That’s Baseball-Reference WAR, for what it’s worth.) So that very cursory study would claim that Wieters was more or less a typical outcome. Sadly.
Keith Law: But he wasn’t a typical #5 pick. He was #1 or #2 in the draft – I had him at 1, I think BA had him at 2 (They were right) – on most boards. I certainly never heard anyone tell me at the time that he was flawed. He slipped to 5 because teams 2-4 didn’t want to meet his bonus demands.

SeanE: So CNN is right down the middle. You have been spending too much time on the beach in Arizona….oh wait….
Keith Law: Strawman, and I haven’t lived in Arizona since 2013. Take the L, Seane.

Kevin : Is trump worse than you thought he would be…I had extremely low expectations in November of 2016 but somehow he has been even worse.
Keith Law: He’s what I feared. The federal government is slashing science budgets and programs left and right and no one even notices because we’re too busy reacting to him lighting something else on fire.

Ridley Kemp: Speaking of musicians who are best left forgotten: Michael Jackson and R. Kelly are being removed from playlists, but Ted Nugent the Rolling Stones, and The Mamas and The Papas get a pass. Any idea why there would be a different standard?
Keith Law: Timing? Those revelations (and crimes) were longer ago.

Thomas: David Bowie had a teenage relationship, e.g. statutory rape. Should he not be played either?
Keith Law: I can’t tell you where to draw that line for yourself. You should at least ask yourself the question on Bowie and his contemporaries who engaged in similar behavior. I don’t love relativistic approaches to judging such crimes, but I could not agree that Bowie is in the Kelly/Jackson category.

Kevin : who even likes Ted Nugent?
Keith Law: I have never actually met a Ted Nugent fan. I used to really like that style of faux-metal, too, but never liked any of his songs.

Corey: Draft idea, versions of which i’ve seen elsewhere: 1st five picks are the 1st five non-playoff teams, then the rest in the normal order. Incentivizes teams to win
Keith Law: Yep, that’s one I’ve heard and like. Or a lottery. Or take the top N picks and make them a sort of controlled free agency – teams in that range can submit bids on players, who then go to the highest bidders in that group, and then from picks N+1 forward it’s a draft again.

Andy: Add Led Zeppelin to the list of bands who were lucky their scandals happened before the current time frame.
Keith Law: There are some ugly stories with them, if I remember correctly. Motley Crue too, surprising exactly nobody.

Tim: Should any person (even low income blue collar workers) who are guilty of domestic violence be fired and never hired again or does that just apply to MLB players?
Keith Law: MLB players are public figures hired to represent a franchise and perform for (and often spend time with) children in particular. If you can’t see that difference, I can’t help you.

Blake: You (correctly) said Harper would sign with whoever paid him the most. Do you think any players go for fit/location over money? I remember Dawson supposedly told the Cubs he’d play for whatever number they wanted.
Keith Law: Dawson said that to challenge collusion. Some players near the end of their careers will do that – Kerry Wood comes to mind. But peak free agents do not.

JD: Speaking of slashing science budgets, have you read Michael Lewis’s “The Fifth Risk”? Short, demoralizing read about our current government that doubles as a paean to devoted civil servants and the unheralded jobs government takes on.
Keith Law: I won’t for that reason. I’m sure it’s excellent.

Chris: At this point Gio probably couldnt even start a game til mid April at the absolute earliest, so is the idea for the Yanks’ going after him as insurance for Severino being out longer than the first month? Otherwise they could be fine w a month of Cessa/German, no?
Keith Law: He’s depth for the whole year, though. Someone else will get hurt or need some time off. I doubt CC makes 30 starts, for example.

Tom: How did you figure out your red meat allergy/sensitivity? I am going through some issues myself and am wondering if you know about a test that I don’t. A full elimination diet is pretty difficult with a FT job and 2 kids under 3. Hoping for an easier path…
Keith Law: We knew we had the inborn error of metabolism from when my daughter was born and then they tested me and found I had it too. (It’s autosomal recessive, so she got one defective gene from me and one from mom, but I also have two defective genes, and the one I gave my daughter was apparently unique. We were very popular around the hospital for a few days.) My daughter pieced together the “eat beef = feel like crap” connection, although to be honest I was just in denial.

mike sixel: I am all for a controlled FA type “draft”. The teams that don’t make the playoffs get $X to sign 1-3 players, say, for a week or two. Then there is the regular draft, or a new FA where the amount you can spend on one player is capped. Players can choose if team or money is more important. Teams can choose to put more eggs in 1-2 baskets, or spread their risk.
Keith Law: Right? And then the top draft kids might get something closer to market value.
Keith Law: There are really only 2-5 such players in any draft class anyway. They get screwed.

Kevin : People always bring up cutting regulations as why they like trump, but is that a good thing? I mean at some point I like clean water/air plus we cannot have companies like Boeing self regulate.
Keith Law: Right – people who say they want fewer regulations probably don’t mean they want zero safety checks on our food supply (which was never something the USDA etc did well anyway).

adambulldog: Do arb-eligible players receive MLB compensation if they are optioned to the minors?
Keith Law: Depends on their contracts. If they went to arbitration they will get their major-league salary. You can be arb-eligible but accept a split deal if, say, you were non-tendered.

Blake: Any advice on getting someone (teen) to participate in therapy when they really don’t want to? We’ve been through 7-8 therapists so far, tried meds, nothing works.
Keith Law: I wish I had a good answer other than try to find a therapist your teen likes on a personal level, so that therapy becomes like a conversation.

Mike: How fucked up do you have to be to come to a baseball writer’s chat and try to write a gotcha question defending men who engage in violence against women?
Keith Law: Every week.

Henry: Are owners required to report revenue reports to MLB every year? If so, can’t the Union sue as part of the freedom of information act to determine if there is free agency collusion, or an effort to maximize owner profit?
Keith Law: FOIA covers information from government agencies. Doesn’t apply here. The union could demand such information in the CBA but the owners wouldn’t agree to it.

Rick Sanchez: Do you think Wander Franco makes a Soto-like splash in the majors next year as a teenager?
Keith Law: 2020, maybe, but not this year.

Kevin : On average how many questions do you get in these chats?
Keith Law: It’s many hundreds. I don’t have a quick way to count but there are over 330 of you with this chat open right now even though we’re 72 minutes in.
Keith Law: That’s all for me – I have some errands to run and then a weekend at home before I head to Arizona. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions! Look for more scouting posts next week as well as my annual breakouts column.

Stick to baseball, 3/9/19.

No new ESPN+ content this week, but that will change now that I’m in Florida to see a little spring training and at least two potential first-rounders while I’m here. I did hold a Klawchat on Thursday and a Periscope video chat on Friday.

I sent out the latest edition of my free email newsletter on Friday, this time discussing a hypothesis I have on how some teams handle low-ceiling teenaged prospects; you can sign up here and maybe I’ll send you something too.

And now, the links…