Keith Law: I guess I didn’t know. Klawchat.

Otto Adamvino: With Deivi Garcia, Schmidt, Gil & Medina all looking good lately, has the Yanks’ minor-league pitching taken a step forward overall this season? Do you project any/all of those four to be good MLB starters?
Keith Law: Garcia is the highest probability starter of the group for me. I’d project Schmidt to start, with some caveats about his durability. Medina probably has the highest ceiling, based on pure stuff and delivery, but the shortest track record of adequate performance (he’s been great recently, a complete turnaround from everything that came before). You didn’t mention Roansy Contreras, who I also think is a definite starter, or Luis Gil, more likely a reliever than the others in the group but nonzero starter potential. So yeah, pretty solid crop.

Bruce: Will Bo Bichette stay at SS? Does he have an All Star hit tool?
Keith Law: I would bet on him moving off shortstop, but I think he has at least a 60 hit tool.

Will: How close are Matt Olson and Ramon Laureano to their ceilings?
Keith Law: I would say they’re both at or right near their ceilings. Laureano has even exceeded my expectations for him when I saw him and wrote him up positively after the AFL in 2016, before the Astros tried to change his swing.

Tony: Man, Rhys Hoskins looks terrible. I know he’s not as good as he looked when he first came up, and probably isn’t this bad, but it really is starting to seem like he’s more Pat Burrell than Paul Goldschmidt at this point
Keith Law: A 120 wRC+ isn’t terrible; I think you’re reacting to how he gets to that figure (power and walks, lot of Ks, low average) rather than considering the total production. I’d say I’m more concerned about his defense than anything else.

VernRudyVanceDerekKeith LAW: The Pirates seem to have several rookies & young vets having pretty strong offensive years. I know they have no pitching, especially given Taillon’s injury, but is there enough of an offensive core there to build a contender?
Keith Law: Yes. But they need a lot of pitching to get there and right now I don’t see it in the system.

Danny: So I’m torn. I want Trump gone because he’s the most divisive and destructive American politician we may have ever seen. Recessions are terrible, although inevitable in economic cycles. Am I wrong to want this recession within the next year or so if it means helping get him voted out?
Keith Law: I had this same conversation with someone the other day … you can’t root for a recession, not if you have any sort of conscience, but the realistic view is that 1) recessions are inevitable, as you said, and 2) they often bounce a lot of incumbents, especially the President.

Paul: Hey Keith – my wife and I are trying to plan a trip in early December. Somewhere tropical, looking for something adults only, nice beache etc. I know you have been to a few any place that you have been that you would recommend?
Keith Law: My girlfriend and I just stayed at Sunset at the Palms in Negril, Jamaica, this month, and we thought it was fantastic – adults only, all inclusive, never had any need to leave the resort, incredibly friendly and helpful staff. The food was better than we’d expected too. We did see the largest stingray either of us could ever remember seeing, right on the beach, maybe three feet from the water line, so … swim carefully.

Tony Gonsolin: I have a legitimate 4 pitch mix with + grades and pitched well against NYY, ATL, STL and @ COL. What is my realistic ceiling?
Keith Law: Slow down. You do not have four pitches with plus grades.

Sedona: Will Joe Palumbo and Justin Dunn be in their respective rotations in 2020? What are their ceilings?
Keith Law: That feels like a strong maybe in both cases (better than even odds, far from definite). Dunn potential #3 starter, Palumbo maybe a tick below that. I believe both guys can start.

Tevin: It got very little publicity at the time, but is the Randal Grichuk extension by the Jays the most confusing deal of the year? They gave him $50+ million for 5 years despite having him under control through 2020. He’s already 27, he’s a 1-2 win player (this year he’s even less) at a non-premium position.
Keith Law: I have always been befuddled with industry evaluations of Grichuk as more than an extra outfielder, which date back to when he was in the low minors. His strengths and weaknesses are pretty clear and I don’t think they’ve changed at all since he was a prospect, have they? That’s not a core player you try to lock up. You keep that guy, and pay him fairly, but save your long-term investments for guys like Bichette.

Sedona: Why can’t lefties hit lefties while righties can hit righties?
Keith Law: Right-handed batters have platoon splits; they’re just not as severe. I think the main reason is that there are so many fewer left-handed pitchers, so left-handed batters don’t get the same quantity of reps against same-side arms as RHB do. There could also be some selection bias at work, with teams particularly favoring LHP who have the breaking ball(s) to get lefties out.

Mark: Were you surprised Blake Swihart passed through waivers ? Kind of feel bad for the guy, the ankle injury ,parasites,his brother passing away. Is his career likely over ?
Keith Law: Surprised, a little. Career over, not at all.

Hank: Bryan Reynolds. How much of this is mirage, how much of it is sustainable?
Keith Law: The .410 BABIP is obviously unsustainable, by a large margin. His secondary skills are enough to make him a regular even when that bubble bursts.

Jason: On Monday, Atlanta had Billy Hamilton on third with 1 out, down by 1. The hitter (not very good) walked, bringing up the pitcher’s spot, and the two options were Tyler Flowers and Hechevarria. Although Hechevarria hit a sac fly to score the tying run, was that a rare situation where an out in play would probably have been preferable to a walk?
Keith Law: I may have missed something in your question, but I don’t see why that’s preferable; the walk loads the bases for whoever was on deck, who was not the pitcher.

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: Hey KLaw. You wake up tomorrow as Rick Hahn. Do you view your team as ready to compete for the playoffs next year? If so, what moves do you make? Thanks.
Keith Law: I do view them as contenders in 2020. First order of business would be adding a starting pitcher, probably via free agency.

Chris: O/U on David Peterson innings next year in majors: 100
Keith Law: With most teams I’d say over. I can’t figure out anything the Mets are doing; they are operating with such a short horizon that I find it hard to predict how they’ll use players or even who they’ll keep.

BigDaddeh: Would you be in favor of a mercy rule in baseball? And at what point? Up 12 runs after 7?
Keith Law: In the majors, no, please God no. In the minors, I’d be open to that rather than having position players pitching, because at that point the development is over.

davealden53: James Kaprielian keeps putting up competent or better 4 to 5 inning starts in Double-A. Might he be multi-inning option for the A’s in September and a #4 starter next year?
Keith Law: Yes to the former. I can’t predict his health after the TJ and long recovery … I thought he had #1 starter potential before he blew out, but can he hold his stuff and handle a starter’s workload? I don’t think anyone can reasonably answer that question.

Lee D, LA: Keith — Here in LA it felt like the Dodgers chances to win the WS dropped from 33% to 20% after the Yankees beat up Ryu and also will likely get home field advantage — and the Astros might too. Over-reaction to one 3 game series?
Keith Law: There is no reaction to a 3-game series that is not an overreaction.

addoeh: While he’s in Poland next week to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the start of WW II, do you think the Chosen One will pull aside the Czech Republic leader to ask if the Sudetenland is available for sale?
Keith Law: No, he’ll ask Czechia to give the Sudetenland to Putin.

Jon: Do you think the Phillies should bring Spencer Howard up in September?
Keith Law: If the weather holds, I’ll see him tonight. I have heard the stuff has tapered off since he came off the IL.

NMN: Please weigh in on Joe Girardi using R+RBI-HR, in two-thousand-freakin-nineteen, to come up with an MVP candidates list.
Keith Law: I missed that, and oh my god, no.

Kik: What are your general thoughts of the Jays pitching prospects besides Pearson?
Keith Law: Manoah is next in their pitching prospect rankings. I haven’t seen Murphy this year around his injuries, but the stuff has apparently been legit for a starter … if he can stay healthy. Maybe he’s a multi-inning reliever, but either way, he’s a real prospect. I think there’s a big dropoff to their next arm – they have some intriguing bats in short-season, but the pitching is pretty short.

Sebastian: Francisco Alvarez’s stat line looks great for a 17 year old in the Appy league. Top 3 prospect in the Mets system?
Keith Law: Top 5.

Chris: Amed Rosario has looked better at dish. Is his glove at SS league average?
Keith Law: It hasn’t been, and maybe they decide to give up on him there because they believe in Gimenez, but I don’t see any tangible reason Rosario can’t be a competent shortstop – not tools, not mental skills. His regression has been shocking.

Steve: I know they won’t do it, but given that the Rays are locked in a battle for a wild card spot would calling up Wander Franco be worth it or would it be too premature?
Keith Law: Premature.

Johnny Utah: Any restaurant recommendations for Maui or the Big Island?
Keith Law: Never been, unfortunately, only Oahu and Kauai. Enjoy, though – I’m jealous. Would love to see Volcanoes National Park.

Matthew: I completed my first ever script late last year for a potential tv show and I’m debating writing a fiction book or another script about a redemption story and how love of a sport brought a family together from turmoil and I’m wondering if it would be better it being a book or a screenplay?
Keith Law: I feel like you may have asked this before … it’s really a question for either a literary agent or someone on the publishing side. I don’t know anything about it; I just writes the words.

Mark : What was the difference between Billy Hamilton as an amateur SS in the minors and Trea Turner as an amateur SS defensively in the minors?
Keith Law: About four grades.

Zac: Of the Erie Seawolves rotation (Mize, Manning, Skubal, Faedo, Wentz) who are starters long term and who is a reliever
Keith Law: Skubal, Manning, and a healthy Mize are all good starters. Faedo is a reliever for me. Wentz is in the middle.

John: Would you say the Phillies biggest issue right now is player development or bad drafting? Or is a combination? How do you quickly and efficiently overhaul and entire dev department or scouting department?
Keith Law: They’ve had very poor results in the first round in particular, and I think you have to start there, but it is also fair to point to all the players who’ve regressed in their farm system over the last two years as well. The system-wide hitting approach this year really hasn’t worked out.

Coffee Grind: New to French Press but such a production for one cuppa coffee! Buying coarse ground coffee at local roaster but when do u get accustomed to the labor of warm up cup, carafe, presumably buy a kettle with temperature gauge , wait 4/5 min, then have coffee get cold some 10 min after plunge?
Keith Law: I don’t use a french press – I use a V60 pour-over – but really, you don’t need to do all that. Boil the water, wait about 30 seconds, and pour over the grounds. Splash a little of the extra hot water in the cup so it’s not cold when the coffee hits it. Steep the coffee for four minutes and pour. That’s it. The rest is eyewash.

MikeM: Whats Glyber’s ceiling? Hes 22 and hitting for more power than anyone projected (juiced ball caveats apply) and seemingly improving. Is he in the same class of player as Acuna and the other young phenoms?
Keith Law: He’s in the same class as Acuna for me, although I think both guys have benefited a lot from the juiced ball and Gleyber has especially benefited from, uh, his strength of schedule.

NMN: What’s current boardgame #1?
Keith Law: I’ve been debating that this year, since I’m about 2.5 months from my annual top 100 update. Tough to dislodge Carcassonne but all else being equal I think I’m more likely to pull out 7 Wonders if we have enough players and they’re okay with the game’s slightly more complicated rules.

Hank: Can we expect to see Luis Robert this year? If so, what can we expect? I know he doesn’t seem to hit when you are there, and you had concerns with his hit tool in the past.
Keith Law: I don’t know if he comes up this year due to service time/40-man space, but if he does I expect a lot of inconsistency with some real high points. A lot like Moncada so far, actually, at least in terms of the production. Major league pitchers are going to exploit Robert with velocity in, in a way he hasn’t seen much in the minors, and he has to show he can adjust to that.

addoeh: How would you rank the Caribbean islands you’ve visited?
Keith Law: The Jamaica experience was top-notch, but it was all within the resort, not about the entire island (friends of mine who were born there discouraged me from exploring). Aruba is probably my favorite and the most user-friendly. Puerto Rico has the benefit of an urban environment and culture that lets you get the best of both worlds – beach in the afternoon, dinner or nightlife in the evening. Bear in mind I haven’t been to PR or St. Thomas since before the twin hurricanes, though.

Trevor: Daulton Varsho in consideration for a top 100 update?
Keith Law: Wasn’t he already on mine?
Keith Law: Also, probably not a catcher. Seems like AZ agrees.

Juice: Where do you land on Tahnaj Thomas? Is he getting by solely on velocity or is he a legit arm in the Pirates’ system?
Keith Law: Big velocity guy. Not enough of a complete pitcher.

Jake: What are your impressions of Bubic this yr? Has he made any adjustments you are aware of or just a case of needing to be moved up/challenged?
Keith Law: Too advanced for A-ball, but the stuff is a lot of average. Back end starter without real upside.

Moe Mentum: Just curious whether you’ve read Cathy O’Neil’s “Weapons of Math Destruction” and if so, what you thought of it? If not, you might want to add it to your non-fiction reading list.
Keith Law: Heard of it but haven’t read it. Thank you. Still reading Wolf Hall and listening to Vaccines Did Not Cause Rachel’s Autism.

John : When’s the best time to take anti-anxiety medication in the morning or at night before bed? Also, does clonazapam do damage to the brain? I’d take it everyday but I’m worried about the long term effects.
Keith Law: That will depend on the specific medication and your own body. I take escitalopram, and I take it mid-afternoon. I would definitely ask a doctor about clonazepam; I know benzodiazepenes can be habit forming.

Moe Mentum: At this point, I’m assuming Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer all cruise into the Hall of Fame in their first year of eligibility. Do you agree, and are there any other active pitchers who are also likely to get voted in via BBWAA balloting? (Greinke? Hamels? Sabathia? F.Hernandez?)
Keith Law: Yes to all three (and I’d vote for them). Sabathia I think will get in, but slowly. The others are probably all on the Very Good side of the line.

Alex: Would you consider Masahiro Tanaka a disappointment relative to his contract? 17.2 bWAR for $132,000,000 through 6 years seems decent. I think people kind of expected more when he was coming out of Japan
Keith Law: I would not. That’s a good outcome, especially since he came here with a wonky elbow and has pitched through for years.

Amir: You might have answered this before but where are you on the issue of legal sports betting? On the surface it seems like it would be great for state revenue but curious to hear your thoughts.
Keith Law: Hate it, but I accept it’s inevitable. Gambling in general is not a good industry for local economies; any rise in revenues from taxes or tourism (people coming to your state/town to gamble) will likely be offset by rising crime rates, including increased rates of domestic abuse. The flip side of this is that people are going to gamble even if it’s not legal, so it might as well be legal, taxed, and regulated.
Keith Law: This is essentially my take on prostitution … I would rather that be legal and out of the shadows, in that case for the protection of the sex workers themselves, since it’s going to exist whether it’s legal or not.

Beeds: Manoah, Pearson, Pardino, Kloffenstein, Kay, Simeon Woods … where does this group of pitchers rank in minors? Too 5?
Keith Law: Gah, I missed Kay. Sorry about that. Would go Pearson, Manoah, Kay, Murphy. Not top 5 in the minors, though. I’d say 15-20 systems could rattle off a list of names that’s at least comparable.

JT: I coach low A little league for 14 to 18 year olds (the lowest level): I’ve only ever let my charges throw 2 seamers, 4 seamers and circle changes.

The research seems to be clear on sliders being for the next age group up. Curveballs and knuckleballs aren’t as clear. Some sources say as low a 14 for curveballs is fine.

Thoughts? I value the arm over any win or pitch.
Keith Law: There’s some mixed research on the effects of breaking balls on young arms, but I agree with your conservative view. I think – this is a better question for researchers, I’m just cribbing what they’ve found – that total workload and avoiding maximum effort (don’t throw every pitch as hard as you can) is more important for arm health.

JT: You’ve never been high on Cavan Biggio, and certainly, there’s a lot to be desired this year. Still, his OBP is fine, his eye is excellent, and he’s got a 25/20 pace for homers and steals.

I know you’re unlikely to now be wearing his shirtsey, but do you have a little more hope for him now?
Keith Law: Not at all. He’s not worth the roster spot.

Jason: My apologies for not being clear enough. The walk led to runners on the corners with 1 out, setting up a potential double play by either Hechevarria (bad hitter) or Flowers (better, but really slow). With Hamilton on third, it doesn’t take a whole lot to get a run home with a ball in play, but a ball in play by Hechevarria or Flowers could have been a game-ending double play
Keith Law: Ah, I see, I did not understand the situation at all. I think I’d need some estimate of the probability of a double play in that situation to answer your question. My gut feeling is that we tend to overstate that probability in the general case, but perhaps for someone like Flowers it’s high enough that your hypothesis (that the out was preferable in this one specific situation) would bear out.

Moe Mentum: Nick Pivetta – the tools are there, but can he ever get results at the big-league level (in the rotation or the bullpen)?
Keith Law: The tools aren’t really there – he has never had a viable weapon for LHB.

Nick: Do you see Logan Gilbert making the M’s rotation by mid season 2020? Has been a fast riser this year and seemingly done well in AA so far.
Keith Law: He might be ready now, but they have no real need or impetus to promote him.

Steve: You mentioned earlier about your girlfriend and you going on vacation. You do a great job of sharing your personal life (you personally have helped me with anxiety by reccomending a book), have you talked about this previously. Please disregard if this is too personal
Keith Law: I’m divorced, and have been dating someone seriously (who reads my chats every week, hello my love) since the spring. I did discuss it in an email newsletter a few weeks ago but I don’t mind the question, since it seemed to come as a surprise to a lot of readers.

Pat D: It’s pretty obvious that we just need to cut ties with Puerto Rico at this point, right? I mean, they are constantly in the path of hurricanes, which is so unfair to the rest of us.
Keith Law: It’s sad when you can read that question in the President’s voice and find it totally plausible.

David: What weekend are you headed to AFL? Any reader meetups in the works while there?
Keith Law: I may go for the Fall Stars weekend (and the few days prior), but haven’t booked it yet. The change to the AFL schedule really screws up scouting plans.

Matt: Does Toronto have to go through customs every time they leave for a road trip and come home? If true, that’s gotta be annoying and a disadvantage over a full season.
Keith Law: It is annoying but how is it a disadvantage?

Jason: Keith…is Dylan Carlson a RF long term? Do you think he cracks the big league club next summer?
Keith Law: Yes, and probably yes.

Ridley: So…trade wars are a subject your educations would give you some insight into. Are there situations where they make sense, and, if so, is this one of them?

Completely unrelated, but any time he says “There is no one more X than me,” or “I’m the least Y person in the world,” that’s a helluva tell. I’d love to play poker with that guy.
Keith Law: The default assumption should always be that a trade war will damage both parties. You have a very high bar to clear to make a trade war economically advantageous in the long run, since they are always harmful in the short run. You could argue that a trade war with a country that is engaging in illegal or deleterious trade practices – we often hear of countries ‘dumping’ goods, although that’s often a misunderstanding of comparative advantage and lower labor costs – would restore long-term balance. I’m pretty confident that if you said every trade war was bad, however, you’d be right in just about each individual case.

Nick: Who’s your NL ROY?
Keith Law: With Tatis Jr. out, it has to be Alonso, no? Am I forgetting someone?

Pat D: Are there any potential Oscar contenders that have shown up on your radar yet this year? Would you watch “Joker” if it garners any nominations, even though it’s ostensibly a “comic book” movie?
Keith Law: Seems like the potential contenders, other than Once Upon…, haven’t come out yet. I’ll watch Joker if it’s supposed to be good, and not just “good for a comic book movie.”

Mat Ji: What sort of ceiling does Triston Casas have?
Keith Law: Above-average regular.

MTL: Mike Yastrzemski has been a good story for the Giants this season. Is he for real?
Keith Law: Extra OF, tops. Juiced ball has helped him, as well as just small sample size.

Zach: Do you think the ball has made GMs pause for a second for locking up young players? As a Yankee fan, watching Torres hit 40hrs as middle infielder, but if MLB changes the balls back to “normal” is he suddenly “just” 30hr power? (Yes the power numbers are just round numbers for this hypothetical).
Keith Law: To your general question, yes, it’s affecting how teams value players, and we’ll see that more this offseason (I think). Torres is pretty great at 20 HR, though.

OC Joe: @Johnny Utah: Mama’s Fish House in Maui is fantastic. Book well in advance.
Keith Law: Multiple people responded with this suggestion.

Kevin: Could Gilberto Jimenez be the Red Sox best prospect this time next year?
Keith Law: I saw him, and I like him, but I’d be very surprised if he made that large of a leap over guys like Casas and perhaps Groome now that he’s back and pitching.

Erik: how far along are you in Doctor Who? thoughts?
Keith Law: Finished S4, including the specials. (They really do lay it on thick when an actor leaves, don’t they?) I enjoy it, even though a lot of it is silly; they poke sufficient fun at themselves, and the point is nearly always the relationships between the Doctor and Companion(s), and the Doctor and certain other recurring characters.

Jay: Riley Greene has been struggling a bit at the plate since his move to full-season A. Is he still just getting adjusted to professional-level pitching or do you think it’s a bigger issue of swing mechanics?
Keith Law: That’s a huge jump for a kid who was still in high school three months ago.

Dylan: you have said previously that you do not believe zack collins has made any adjustments but Rick Hahn and the stats seem to indicate that he has (.365/.464/.713 with 10 hr and 21 bb in 33 games since he has returned to AAA compared to 9 hr 36 bb .2500/.374/.482 in the 50 AAA games prior to his call up)
Keith Law: I saw him. It’s the same guy. Be careful slicing that thinly or you will see what you want to see.

Roxanne: I hate Christian Yelich.
Keith Law: Roxanne, you don’t have to click that send tweet button.

Zach: Thoughts on non-meat alternatives reaching “mainstream” fast food restaurants? Yay for alternatives, but Nay for 900 calorie sandwiches?
Keith Law: Yay for alternatives, especially since many of these are substantially more environmentally friendly than beef. If you want to eat a 900 calorie sandwich, it’s your body. I don’t love policing how healthful others’ diets are; I’m more concerned with ensuring sustainable food and water supplies.

Tom: But seriously… What would you do if your parents were serious Trumpers? It really sucks since, you know, I love my parents. It’s just unfathomable to me how they’ve gone this far. It really is the Fox News effect.
Keith Law: I haven’t faced anything like this, fortunately, but I would cut off any family member who was a serious Trump supporter. You can’t approve of the white nationalism, the anti-LGBT policies, the environmental destruction in the name of profits, and still act like we have some sort of emotional bond. If you don’t think trans people are people, well, fuck off.

Julie : I’m an O’s fan looking for good news in the minors, and I realize I should take overall team performance there with a large grain of salt, but is there anything positive to be gleaned from Delmarva’s success this year? I feel like just being in a winning environment has to help the psyche a bit, although obviously that does not necessarily translate to success down the line. I know you’re not as high on Grayson Rodriguez as some are, but outside him and Adley, are there any solid ML prospects there? Also, it’s cool that Ryan Mountcastle won the IL MVP, but I already knew that didn’t mean a whole lot historically without even looking at the list, then saw that last year’s league MVP is already playing in Japan.
Keith Law: Adam Hall for Delmarva has also had a good year and I think he’s a regular. Some quality relievers there. There are some signs of hope in the low minors. I’m not a big Mountcastle believer, though; he lacks a position and his low OBPs are probably chronic.

Larry: That Nick Solak players I missed on article is writing itself.
Keith Law: After 25 at bats? Go call the people who tried to troll me when Austin Riley had a great first two weeks and see how they’re doing. I haven’t heard from them in a while.

Bret: Keith – has a certain type of pitcher been hurt by the juiced baseball or is it something that affects everyone equally? Thinking a guy who might make a rebound of sorts…assuming they change the ball back. Thanks.
Keith Law: Probably yes. Almost certainly yes. I would love to have Statcast data to explore that question, as I think that’s where you might find them.

Dylan: Do you see Nick Madrigal being able to sustain his 3% k rate in the majors next season?
Keith Law: No.

KC: Kyle Hendricks is a player you missed on. No biggie of course. Is there a way to ID any other 88 mph wonders?
Keith Law: He was in one of my year-end columns on those guys, too. I’d still bet against any RHP throwing a below-average fastball; their margin for error could be measured in microns.

Danny: Re comic book movies- did you watch/enjoy the second Christopher Nolan Batman- fun thriller with some great individual performances but you do have to ask why this dude is running around dressed like a bat growling like a schmo
Keith Law: The Dark Knight was fine, but I didn’t quite understand the acclaim. I thought it had one incredible performance, was generally well written, but still relied on conventions of the genre and went on a bit too long. I never saw the Dark Knight Returns.

Glenn T : At an A’s meet and greet event in Tokyo during the Opening Series in March, an A’s official hinted at the A’s returning to Japan within the next few years. Are you privy to any future plans MLB is considering for visits to Japan and other countries?
Keith Law: London again next year. Regular trips to PR/Mexico/perhaps somewhere else in Latin America. The rumor I’ve heard, but that is totally unconfirmed, is that MLB would like to play games in continental Europe. The Netherlands seems like such an obvious spot if they can find a facility, since the sport has a real following there.

tj: Now that you saw Clarke shmidt, would you say all things combined u like him better than Garcia?
Keith Law: I would not.

Tevin: Soroka for NL ROY over Alonso, no?
Keith Law: I’d vote for Alonso over Soroka.

Matt: How do we sign up for your newsletter?
Keith Law: Sign up here. I send them once every two weeks or so, when I have content to tell you about.

Sean: Do you think Jhoan Duran’s emergence this year is real and what is his ceiling?
Keith Law: Real, yes. Whether he’s a mid-rotation starter or high-value reliever, I don’t know. I hear both. Maybe that ‘splinker’ is more than just a once-through-the-order weapon?

Zach: Republicans/Trans people – I feel like most Republicans are pissed they “lost” the gay rights battle, so they’re going all out not to “lose” the trans rights battle.
Keith Law: That’s a good point, and at least has the ring of truth. Also, I think GOP strategists have found more ignorance of or outright prejudice against trans people, and they’re exploiting it. It’s venal.

Jon: When Conforto was coming up through the minors, did you ever view him as a streaky hitter? He gets bashed by a lot of Mets fans because of this, even though his overall numbers are still very good.
Keith Law: No, I never thought that. Not really sure ‘streaky’ hitters are a thing … a hitter’s hits are never going to be uniformly distributed throughout the season.

Paul: Is the juiced ball here to stay? Per that earlier question, if this is the new normal, and teams are valuing players based on that – it can really screw something up long term. For instance a player like Alonso, probably loses a lot/all? of his value if he is more of a 30hr guy at 1b.
Keith Law: MLB will almost certainly tinker with the ball this winter, but we can’t predict how, or what the effects would be. To your point, however, yes, I think we will see some contracts that look fine in this high HR environment that suddenly look worse if the ball even goes halfway back to where it was. I’m trying not to sound like I’m yelling at a cloud, but seeing one baseball in the majors and another in AA and below is kind of maddening when it comes to writing about or evaluating players.
Keith Law: Thank you all for your questions and for the many notes of support and empathy that I didn’t post for the public. I really appreciate the kind works. With my daughter back in school the chats should be more regular and I will try to get back on to an every Thursday schedule starting next week. Thanks for reading. Have a safe Labor Day weekend.

Keith Law: True identity hidden inside secret tabloids. Klawchat.

Mickey Callaway: Given the silly ball, are groundball pitchers like Stroman more valuable than in a normal environment?
Keith Law: I don’t think so offhand, but that’s a question someone could answer with empirical evidence.

Ben: Have you read (or do you plan on reading) The Luminaries by Eleanor Catton, winner of the 2013 Man Booker? If you haven’t yet gotten to it, I’d offer a slight nudge against any aspirations to do so. Too fat for such little character depth has me questioning that Booker panel..
Keith Law: I haven’t because of its weight (been reading shorter books this summer or e-books since I’m traveling/going to games a lot).

James: Thoughts on the Blue Jays rookie hitters so far?
Keith Law: I’m buying Vlad and Bichette, of course. Gurriel’s power is real, not sure there’s much OBP there. That’s it.

Moe Mentum: Adam Haseley – SSS, but is he performing above, at, or below your expectations in the majors so far? Anything sustainable as a long-term starting/platoon OF?
Keith Law: Probably above expectations. Just an extra OF.

Joe: Can you think a reason why Chris Davis is still on the Orioles? The only reason I have heard is that he isn’t blocking anyone, but even though that is true it is a silly reason.
Keith Law: I would just cut him at this point. He’s below r-level, never getting better, and not worth the roster spot.

zuke354: Is it ok to start believing in Arozarena? Just a little bit?
Keith Law: I think the .432 BABIP might be both a fluke and driven by the silly ball in AAA.

Bob: Can Isaac Paredes ride his contact ability/bad body combo to become an above average infielder at either 2B or 3B?
Keith Law: I would bet the under on that. Maybe an average regular. No projection there.

zuke354: How long before somebody skips the walmarts and opens fire in a crowded stadium?
Keith Law: It’d be hard to get a weapon into a major league stadium, but the minors … there are simply too many guns out there. It seems inevitable that this will happen in an extremely crowded place and we’ll see 100+ dead.

Chris: Mets should offer Wheeler QO regardless, right?
Keith Law: Yes.

Bob: Cal Raleigh has started to hit in AA. Can he be an average regular?
Keith Law: I would buy that.

Robert: Is Luis Campusano on the short list of top C prospects behind Adley, Bart, Ruiz and may he be a first div regular?
Keith Law: Yes, and yes. Behind Cartaya, I think.

ndrah: some talk about the twins calling up one or two of their top pitching prospects this fall. Do you think Graterol could contribute?
Keith Law: Maybe in relief?

Robert: I was pleasantly surprised to see X Edwards on your top 50. Do you see more upside with him long term than Urias?
Keith Law: Absolutely. Urias is more ready Edwards has more upside.

Christopher: Should I expect a reasonably intelligent 6 year old (my son) to have reasonable chance of being able to play Splendor?
Keith Law: My daughter played it competently at age 7.

JSG: What do the Dodgers do with Gavin Lux? He appears, judging from his small AAA stat line, to be MLB-ready or close to it. But Seager can’t be moved to third while Turner’s there, and Turner is still productive.
Keith Law: Second base?

Jason: Is Anthony Santander just a guy having a hot streak, or is he something more?
Keith Law: Something more. Might be a regular there. Shouldn’t his nickname be “Banco” by now?

Devin: Have the Nats pushed Luis Garcia too aggressively? Only 19 put struggling at AA 258/285/309 at AA
Keith Law: They have pushed him aggressively, but I also don’t find any support for him from scouts.

Allison: Thanks for allowing a glimpse into your life away from baseball in your newsletters. The benefit of hindsight notwithstanding, do you understand argument (not necessarily agree with) that the A’s were prudent in taking high risk prospects like Austin Beck and Kylar Murray with consecutive top-10 picks because they couldn’t sign players with tools like than in an open market? Do you see a 10% chance that Beck could ever perform well enough to justify his high draft position? Thanks.
Keith Law: I do understand the philosophy, but perhaps not those specific picks. What happened with Murray was a bit out of nowhere – I don’t think anybody saw him as a first-round NFL talent until last fall – but I’m not sure he was really a top ten MLB talent anyway.

MHG: What is the spread of what teams spend on scouting and player development? Tigers can’t seem to do either. Is it lack of resources or personnel or both?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s financial. I think in this case it’s philosophical.

Aaron C.: Do you have the correct opinion on the movie “Field of Dreams” like Craig Calcaterra or do you like it?
Keith Law: I like it. It’s fine, not my favorite baseball movie, definitely on the sappy side, but it’s fine.

Fan of team you hate: How have the reports been on Trevor Rogers? Surface numbers look solid.
Keith Law: Reports have also been solid, not spectacular, but solid enough to say 4th starter.

Uli Jon: Just returned from a trip to Colombia and could not recommend it more (well at least Medellin and Cartagena, Bogota is just ok). What is the baseball program like there? Obviously soccer is king, but from what I understand there’s a bit of baseball on the Caribbean coast.
Keith Law: Would love to go there for vacation or work. Good baseball there, just not enough volume of players yet to think of it in the same breath as DR/Venezuela, but it’s coming on.

Tribe called jest: Aaron Bracho seems to be holding his own in the AZL, anything to get excited about? Thank you.
Keith Law: Yes, wrote him up positively in March when I saw him.

BigDaddeh: Was Frazier+Schmidt fair for Robbie Ray? Or did Dbacks truly need more from NYY
Keith Law: What is Frazier’s upside at this point? Can you bet on him becoming a regular? I wouldn’t.
Keith Law: And Schmidt’s delivery has always been a big red flag for me even before he had TJ.

Todd: Who do you ultimately think becomes the better ML pitcher between Sixto and Edward Cabrera?
Keith Law: I have Sixto ahead of Edward right now, but a healthy Garrett is ahead of both of them.

Ben: Is Luis Arraez a potential GUY? The Twins’ coaching staff just gushes about him but he looks kind of like a slap hitter with limited upside. He also seems to have taken Schoop’s job.
Keith Law: I think a good utility guy.

Derek: Do you envision Brock Burke as a future rotation piece for the Rangers?
Keith Law: Sure.

Jason: Seems like the Mets have found a hot streak, but that the the front office still has no real long term plan. Just a little luck.
Keith Law: And a very soft schedule the last month.

Nick: Seth Corry is currently having a breakout season. What’s his ceiling? TOR potential?
Keith Law: No. Mid-rotation potential.

Pramit: Can you recall a GM who’s made as many absurd comments talking up an organization the way Ross Atkins has?
Keith Law: He’s really bad at the PR part of his job. Saying less would be better.

Jeffrey : What do you think about the hard and fast July 31 trade deadline? With all the brains in the front offices I’m surprise that waivers is complicated. Is that why they change the rules?
Keith Law: Preventing teams from trading DFA’d players in August is both dumb and regressive. They’ll need to fix that.

J: This isn’t a question, this is a comment. Every time someone is a dipshit about you being light on someone you should just cough and say you had Tatis, Jr. in your top 50 when he wasn’t in BA’s Padres top 20.
Keith Law: One thing I’ve learned in this job is that far more people will point out my misses than will acknowledge my hits. I had people argue I was wrong about Zack Godley, Tony Kemp, and Maikel Franco when those guys had brief periods of productivity, and not one of them came back when those players were DFA’d in the last few weeks to say they were wrong.

Carl: Thoughts on Joey Cantillo? Does he need to add some velocity to be a guy? His numbers/age seem impressive.
Keith Law: He does need to add velocity to be a GUY, still potentially a major leaguer as is.

Jason: Early thoughts on Unbearable Lightness? The movie with Day Lewis, Binoche, and Olin is terrific, but loses Kundera’s philosophical views.
Keith Law: Almost done; this sort of novel is a bit out of my wheelhouse as I have so little background in philosophy. Kundera renounced the movie for the reason you mentioned. I’m moving through the book rather quickly – 50 pages left, trying to finish before vacation – but I haven’t connected with whatever he’s trying to say.

Joseph: What are your thoughts on Brailyn Marquez? Not sure how excited to be about him.
Keith Law: Every scout I’ve asked about him has been positive but said he’s a high-end reliever rather than a starter.

Mike: Ryan McMahon has been decent for Col this season, what do you think his offensive output ultimately is like in his prime?
Keith Law: I’m still shocked he strikes out as often as he does, but he can be productive at this level. I think he’s a .500+ SLG guy by next year.

BigDaddeh: Mlb game at Field of Dreams site. Cool, tacky or eh whatever?
Keith Law: I’m out. Play these games where we can grow the audience. Maybe that’s overseas, but what about putting games in potential expansion markets, like Portland or Austin or Charlotte? Bring MLB games to markets that typically don’t get to see them.

Kevin: Could Dalbec next year hit 30 HR with a 340 OBP in the majors?
Keith Law: I would bet the under on that OBP.

Jason: Did Zaidi make a big mistake in not selling everything, including Bumgarner? The hot streak has faded and they just got swept by the Nationals.
Keith Law: I think they should have sold everything, but who knows what ownership told Zaidi to do.

John: I read this evaluation of Dustin May earlier today – how many people in the industry think like this? “He’s not part of the exciting crop of starters that present legit upside for years to come. His sinker has life at 95+, but he didn’t have great command with the pitch. His cutter is solid and was effective here against the lowly Cardinals, but that’s it. His curveball is nothing to write home about, and I’m worried the heater is too susceptible to blowup games without enough upside.”
Keith Law: Nobody. That’s a big miss.

Adam: Like the promotions of Pache, Waters and Anderson to AAA? Would Pache, Waters and Acuna be the best defensive OF in baseball?
Keith Law: Three guys who could play CF.

Felix: Do you have any information on Tahnaj Thomas?
Keith Law: Up to 100 without command.

Andrew: KLaw: “Il meglio è l’inimico del bene” – i mean, no philosophical chasm across Dem candidates is as consequential or enormous as that between any of them and the current president – surely people will understand this by Nov ’20 and do the right thing, right? I’m disturbed by those who stubbornly go with the “my candidate or bust” stance…seems selfish, short-sighted and, well, stupid.
Keith Law: I got some of this today from Mariane Williamson supporters, who appear to all be made of stardust and oblivious to the strongly anti-science views she’s espoused for thirty years, to say nothing of her outright promotion of pseudoscientific bullshit or bigoted statements against people with disabilities. They don’t care. They want to talk about peace and love and good happiness stuff. The fucking mediots falling for this shit – AGAIN – should be ashamed. Cover the candidates who talk policy, not the ones who shoot rainbows out of their asses.

Corey B: Braxton Garrett is producing in A but is 22. What should I make of the success?
Keith Law: Age is largely immaterial for pitchers. Also, he’s 21 by seasonal age (turned 22 last week), and in high-A, which is appropriate for a 21-year-old player.

Aaron Houston, Tx: Klaw, I mentor a young college bound boy who recently changed his career path from engineering (my field) to journalism. Can you provide a few insights where I can advise him to get his feet wet. I feel blogging could be a good start. Maybe some volunteer work for a local paper or club. Any thoughts are greatly appreciated.
Keith Law: Eek, tough field to get into right now. Unfortunately, I didn’t come up through any sort of traditional career path, so I don’t know how people typically get into journalism.

romorr: Dean Kremer has looked sharp of late, is he still back end? What could he do to raise his profile, if he can that is. TY
Keith Law: Still a back end guy with that cross-fire delivery.

romorr: Most Oriole fans love Mountcastle, but I can’t get over the 3-4% walk rate. He is 22, but isn’t that a harder skill to teach? Just worried he is going to have to hit .290-.300 to have a respectable OBP.
Keith Law: Unlikely he gets to the point he can be a regular. I know some people were angry I didn’t have him on my top 100, but he clearly didn’t belong between low on-base skills and lack of position.

David (OR): Hi, Keith. Thanks for everything. Will Smith (Dodgers) – what’s his future with Keibert Ruiz on his heels? Are his solid numbers offensively just a result of SSS or is he a legitimate first-division starter?
Keith Law: Smith is an All-Star. Ruiz is probably trade bait at this point, but a very good prospect in his own right.

Brendan: Is Dante Bichette Jr a future major leaguer?
Keith Law: Org guy.

Robbie: How big is the gap between Nick Allen and Nick Madrigal? Am I way off in thinking that Allen is underrate estimated as a prospect?
Keith Law: Not that big. Not sure I would have Madrigal above Allen, since the latter can play a good SS.

Adam: Alex Jackson isnt setting the world on fire in AAA but if he can produce that stat line isnt he a MLB Regular at catcher?
Keith Law: He’d have to be a good enough defensive catcher to do that.

Oscar: Is it time to accept that Buxton’s body is just not going to cooperate with him? I love seeing him play, but it saddens me to think that injuries are going to rob him of the opportunity to do so.
Keith Law: No.

Dean: Have you heard from anyone inside baseball that that there will be an effort to revert to the pre-2016 baseball? This silliness can’t continue. The baseball currently being used in MLB is making a bigger mockery of statistics then PEDs ever did. Agree?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard anything along those lines – MLB does not seem to want to discuss the altered baseball, at least not in public. I agree it’s making a mockery of the game, not just stats, but in trying to evaluate players … imagine being a scout who’s assigned the AA and AAA affiliates of a specific team. You see the same hitter at both levels, but in AA he’s nothing special and in AAA he’s launching balls over the fence. How do you write *that* up?

Cashman: Garcia or Gil long term?
Keith Law: Garcia. I haven’t seen Gil myself but I hear he’s more likely a pen guy. Contreras > Gil right now.

Phanatic: Been hearing positive things on Phillies OF Johan Rojas. Got any intel on him?
Keith Law: Good feel to hit, with some speed and a good arm, not sure if he’s a CF in the long run.
Keith Law: A real prospect, though.

Ryan: The Brewers Devin Williams a legit late inning RP prospect, or more of a middle reliever?
Keith Law: He’s a real prospect as a reliever, but I don’t feel confident saying exactly what sort of reliever.

Graham: Why is Joey Bart so well regarded when reports generally hold that he possesses 2 subpar tools (defense and hit)?
Keith Law: His defense is subpar? What?

Craig: Keith, what you got on DBacks OF Alex Thomas? Just promoted to High A which I believe makes him one of, if not the youngest player in the entire A+ level.
Keith Law: He was on my top 50…

Ryan R: What is Jesse Winker’s ceiling? Guy consistently puts up a high OBP but defensive metrics haven’t been kind to him. Is his offensive profile strong enough to carry him into a everyday lineup spot?
Keith Law: He’ll never be a good defender, most likely, but I think he’s capable of getting on base like he did in 2018 and hitting for 200+ ISO like he did this year.
Keith Law: That’s an everyday player.

Mike: Jeff McNeil seems like an odd situation with him being 27 and finally being in the big leagues/MLB. What held him back from being a prospect?? General health or did he just improve?
Keith Law: Missed several years – 2.5? – to injuries. Also has one tool, really, the hit tool, specifically his ability to put the ball in play, which tends to be harder to scout/not something you want to bank on in the absence of any other tools.
Keith Law: I know he’s a fan favorite but by the time he’s arb-eligible he’ll be 30, and that skill he has does not typically age well.

Andrew : Giants are apparently promoting Ramos to AA today. Is this a little too aggressive?
Keith Law: Yikes. After last year, I wouldn’t be rushing him up the ladder.

Beau: Why did the Padres give up on Franmil? Will it come back to haunt?
Keith Law: Low OBP/improved pitch recognition from last fall hasn’t held up, also a poor defensive OF who may have to go to 1b or DH. I get it. They have better OF options coming and already have two 1b who don’t hit enough for the spot.

Mary: What is Thairo Estrada’s upside? He looked good in small sample size
Keith Law: Just saw him again on Tuesday – I really like him, probably as a utility infielder, just a really solid player who’ll put the ball in play and help out at 3 positions.

Jason: Does Michel Baez have a future as a starter, or is he in the right spot as a reliever?
Keith Law: Reliever for me.

Gun Control: PASS ME NOW PLEASE!
Keith Law: Mitch says no, while counting his NRA money.

Cole Fired: Do you think given how his profile fits their organizational philosophy (spin rate, k’s, etc) and his age fits their contending window the Yankees should aggressively pursue Cole this offseason?
Keith Law: Yes and I would bet they will.

Joe: Did the Tigers do the right thing trading Castellanos? Seems like the compensatory pick value may have been higher had they simply kept him and made a QO. Admittedly though, some of the new QO rules have my mind twisted in a pretzel so I may be misunderstanding all this.
Keith Law: I think they should have traded him sooner, but the trade was probably fine.

Dylan : Could you see a guy like Micker Adolfo or Luis Basabe get called up in September due to them being on the 40 man already and only having 2 option years remaining
Keith Law: Not for that reason, no. Adolfo could end up getting a fourth option in time.

BBTN: It’s really been a pleasure listening to you on the baseball tonight podcast the last two days, thanks for doing it
Keith Law: My pleasure – always good to get back with Eric again, plus I had two longtime friends on as guests in Alex Speier (buy his new book Homegrown, it’s good) and Joe Sheehan.

Craig: How come Joey Bart and Carter Kieboom did not make your midseason top 50? What are the shortcomings?
Keith Law: Neither was really close. I had more than 50 players ahead of each.

Jeff: JD Davis! Has no position but bat seems legit, right?
Keith Law: SSS.

Zihuatanejo: Austin Barnes almost immediately started killing it in AAA after looking done in the bigs. What are the odds he be a good (or at least serviceable) major league hitter?
Keith Law: Near nil.

Ted: You were on Balazovic as a stud pretty early. What are your thoughts on Jhoan Duran?
Keith Law: That one ‘splinker’ pitch he throws is legit. I hear some starter, some reliever; depends on whether you think that one pitch is enough of a carrying tool to let him turn a lineup over 3x.

Rahn: Sorry if I’m late to your opinion on this, but re: the Pirates holding onto Vasquez, what have you heard/read about the package(s) the Pirates were sifting through from L.A., Atlanta, etc. and why in the world did they not deal him?
Keith Law: No idea. I try not to get too deep into the rumor weeds because some of it is always bullshit.

Eric: I went to journalism school at Florida. My advice to Aaron’s mentee would be to major in something else (polsci, biz, etc), and minor in/take classes in journalism. Much more productive route I wish I chose.
Keith Law: I did wonder if developing subject matter expertise would be more useful. Hell, I took one writing class after high school, only because my college required it, and got a fucking B+ because the clown who taught it (an adjunct) was a poet, not a prose writer, and struggled with the basics of syntax and punctuation.

Will: What kind of player do you expect Isan Diaz to be? Is he another guy that’s tough to evaluate based on this season due to the AAA/MLB baseball?
Keith Law: We have some history on him, though, that says he should be at least a regular, chance for an above-average one.

Mike: Brudsar graterol – solid number 2 in his prime?
Keith Law: Uh, no. No.

westin: yordan alvarez incapable of playing 1B, or Astros just being overly cautious?
Keith Law: I think he’s a DH only. Bad body, doesn’t move well.

Chip: Surprised by Will Smith’s start, or has he always had this power?
Keith Law: Dodgers altered his swing to unlock more power before 2018. He’s legit.

Jason: Has Cartaya progressed to the point the Dodgers would be better served dealing Ruiz in the winter to help an area of need?
Keith Law: IMO, yes, he has.

Roger: How did you rate James Kaprielian before the arm injuries?
Keith Law: Potential #1 starter.

Roger Megardy: Does Pete Fairbanks have a future as a legit MLB reliever?
Keith Law: A reliever, yes. A good one, I don’t know.

Joel: Every prospect site I check still has Travis Swaggerty as a promising prospect. I’m scouting the stat line, but I see almost nothing to recommend him as a top prospect dating back to his junior year in a non-elite conference. Can Swaggerty actually be an impact outfielder in the majors?
Keith Law: At this point he won’t be on my top 100. College products pretty much have to hit right away.

JT: You’ve been down on Lamet because of his 2 pitch repertoire (and down is of course relative). Is his breakout as a SP real, or is he still consigned to the late innings with that FB/SL combo?
Keith Law: He’s had a breakout? He’s a two pitch guy, still, and as a result lefties are killing him.

Josh Nelson: What did you like, and dislike, about watching Luis Robert recently?
Keith Law: I disliked all the swinging and missing. I liked that he was actually in the lineup, though. That’s a welcome change for me.

Pat: As to the “open fire in a stadium” question, you don’t need to get in to the stadium. A bigger concern to me is someone opening fire just outside a football or baseball stadium right about 15-30 minutes before gametime when everyone is being herded like cattle thru a few entrances.
Keith Law: I feel like some other writers pointed that out when MLB started this security theater bullshit of metal detectors … they just create vulnerabilities outside the park rather than inside.
Keith Law: I really don’t think I’d attend many MLB games if I had to pay for them and go as a fan, not as a member of the press. The experience of getting to and into most ballparks is too onerous.

El Zilcho: Has there been any change in perception of the Mariners’ player development system over the last couple of years? It seems like it was terrible for so long…
Keith Law: I mean, they have better players now. That sort of helps.

Chris: Regarding today’s ICE raids in MS, why focus on the immigrant worker and not the employer (prosecution is very rare)? I personally don’t approve of either, but if you believe immigration is a problem it seems more pragmatic to focus enforcement efforts at the massive corporations.
Keith Law: Massive corporations tend to donate more to political candidates than undocumented workers do. I think that might be a factor.

Kevin: Would you consider it an accomplishment or a failure if the Dodgers made it to the WS 3 straight years but lost every year
Keith Law: I would. I know Eric said on the pod this morning he would think that would be seen as a failure.

Chris: Amed Rosario turning a corner? I’m still surprised at how bad is defense is, can you explain how scouts missed that?
Keith Law: Scouts didn’t miss it; it has been markedly worse this year than ever before. I don’t know what the Mets are or aren’t doing but it seems like that has to be on the coaching staff.

Jason: Is Trent Grisham legit?
Keith Law: Yes. I’m in.

Chris: Is Tim Beckham’s career over?
Keith Law: Remember those two weeks when Rays fans were apoplectic they traded him and people thought the Orioles had gotten a steal? That was fun.

Kevin: I know Jake Rogers isn’t going be an All-Star but do you think he is a starting C
Keith Law: Maybe with the defense but I don’t think he’s going to hit.

Chris: ETAs for Peterson and Szapucki? Also is Kevin Smith any good?
Keith Law: Next year for Peterson, maybe 2021 for Szapucki, and I have never liked Smith’s movies.

Mucho: How do you manage to get so much done (work, family, reading a thousand books)? Any tips?
Keith Law: I don’t watch much TV at all and now I’m spending less time online (especially Twitter).

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: I’m always curious about discrepancies in rankings (i.e Garcia). You–and people you talk to–have him down. But evaluators at BA, for example, have him in the 2nd half of the Top-100. What do they see you don’t, or vice versa?
Keith Law: No idea. You’d have to ask them. I’ve seen Garcia and talked to many scouts about him. He’s a nice player, but not a top 100 guy. He’s just young.

JT: I still regret that the Jays didn’t get Dom Smith out of the Mets even at the cost of having added another player to the deal. Rowdy is another case you could use as a feather in the cap, by the by.
Keith Law: People complaining to Mike Wilner (a friend from my Toronto days) about my takes on Tellez was fun.

spcohn: Moniak has really picked up performance and has very good numbers (excluding a April) for a 21 yo in AA. I know that you had been down on him in the past…change your view?
Keith Law: Nope. Saw him a month ago. He’s not good. Reading is the best hitter’s environment in the Eastern League, BTW. Didn’t you try to gotcha me over Deivy Grullon back in the spring when he had a hot start? He’s at .236/.314/.390 since June 1st and still can’t catch.

Brian: I’m wondering if you read any of the reporting (especially Matt Gelb’s piece in the Athletic) on why the Phillies are so aggressive pushing kids to Lakewood after you questioned the move. I’d be curious as to your thoughts on their rationale.
Keith Law: I’ll have to check that out, but the proof is in the pudding: I don’t see any players who’ve benefited from that aggressive promotion philosophy in their system. Their Luis Garcia, who does have tools, looks woefully overmatched, and should have been sent down to Williamsport (which he skipped) a month ago. I have seen him three times already and just feel bad for the kid.

Mickey Callaway: Marianne Williamson has policies worth hearing on reparations. She’s not a good candidate, but she’s leading that charge.
Keith Law: She doesn’t belong on the stage. The Democrats are the one party that thinks science is real. Putting an anti-science crank on the debate stages merely cedes one of the party’s actual advantages.

Jay: Joe Ryan, Rays. Decimating Hi-A ball. Aberration, or for real?
Keith Law: He’s killed one tenth of A-ball hitters? Damn. He’s a back-end starter – a real prospect, just not much upside. Tommy Rancel just saw him a few weeks ago but I don’t know if he wrote him up.

Adam: it seems Padres are planning big offseason moves, Everyone other than Gore and Tatis considered untouchable to you?
Keith Law: Patiño too.

Jim: I know you’re not super high on him, but just curious what your thoughts are on Nick Madrigal?
Keith Law: Soft regular. Saw him again Tuesday, will write that game up this afternoon.

Nick G: Not a question, but the difference in where you rank Carter Keiboom and the rest of prospect evaluators is large. If I read correctly, you have Carter outside your top 100 but many outlets have him in their top 25. Not a criticism, I just find that interesting since I typically lean to your opinion.
Keith Law: I don’t know what they think of him. I see a non-shortstop without speed or power. He can hit but he’d have to have a 65 hit tool to be a top 25 prospect for me.

CB: Will we ever see Alex Reyes after this latest setback/reoccurrence of shoulder pain?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t say “never,” but his odds keep going down. I did not like his delivery when I first saw him, and when I last saw him this spring it was the same. Short stride guys tend to get hurt.

Larry: It looks like Zack Collins made a swing adjustment. How do you think it will affect his future outlook?
Keith Law: I just saw him Tuesday. He did not make a swing adjustment. He was also atrocious behind the plate.

Krontz: My 6 yr old son loves Kingdomino and does well with it. Any other game recommendations based on that for him?
Keith Law: I’m glad to hear that – it’s such a good gateway game. Splendor might work. Ticket to Ride or its kids’ version First Journey would be on my list of suggestions. Lost Cities is good if he’s comfortable with numbers (you really just have to be able to order numbers 1-10, as the rest is just a sort of gambling game).

Craig: Can Cavan Biggio be what he has been thus far? An average-ish hitter (factoring in the walks) who is below average defensively but plays enough positions to aid a Major League roster?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: What position can he actually play? He’s been bad everywhere I’ve seen him, and he doesn’t hit.

Jim: Are you buying the breakout from Giolito?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jason: Is there a specific reason for Heliot Ramos’ improvement this year over last year?
Keith Law: Some physical development, some that he was just too young/not ready for low-A.

Sean: Is bukauskas a reliever at this point?
Keith Law: Possible. Would think the Dbacks will try him as a starter for now.

Nathan K: Rosario seems to be improving drastically this summer. Do you still hold him in high regard or do the deficiencies he’s shown to date at the MLB level bring him down future projection-wise
Keith Law: As a hitter, unchanged. But this year at SS has been a disaster.

Jamie: Why wasn’t Yordan on your top 100 before the season?
Keith Law: Because it’s not a list of the top 100 prospects for this season, but for the long term, and it’s not a list of offensive prospects, but of total value. He’s most likely a DH, not a good athlete, and doesn’t move well or project to age particularly easily. He can hit and has power – omitting a player from my top 100, or a midseason top 50, or even a team’s top 10 is not tantamount to saying he’s a bad player or a non-prospect. You’ve probably made one of those mistakes: thinking it’s just about this year, thinking it’s just about offense, or thinking a non top 100 guy must be bad. None of those are true.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – I’ve got to write up the Luis Robert debacle, and then it’s vacation time for me. Thank you all as always for reading and for the kind words after my last few newsletters. I appreciate you all. I’ll be back next Thursday for another chat.