ESPN+ subscribers can see my annual list of players I was wrong about, which includes Shane Bieber and Jeff McNeil.

Keith Law: The wind will carry us. Klawchat.

Dana: I’m curious what you thought of Brett Gardner as a prospect. Probably didn’t think he’d be a consistent 15-25 homer guy?
Keith Law: I think (hope) he was on one of the earliest versions of the “guys I got wrong” column. He had no power in college and his swing wasn’t geared for it at all. He really remade himself into someone who had average power and could take particular advantage of Yankee Stadium’s RF fence. That plus CF level defense in LF made him kind of a star, if not necessarily widely known as one.

Marani: So, who wins AL MVP now?
Keith Law: Trout.

Moe Mentum: Have you seen any evolution in how Gold Gloves are awarded in recent years, or is it still pretty much a joke? Do you think these awards will ever improve their perception among the Smart Baseball generation?
Keith Law: I know the process is better than it used to be but I still do not take them seriously.

TP: You have mentioned Austin as a potential MLB expansion city. While there would be a lot of interest down here, there has also been a lot of backlash to using public land for the new, privately financed MLS stadium. Politically, Austin is similar to Portland, OR, and it is unlikely that there would be political support for a publicly funded stadium within the city limits. Austin has a long history of opposing such ideas (which is one reason the Express play in Round Rock). San Antonio might be more realistic if MLB wants a third team in Texas.
Keith Law: I would think any stadium location would be chosen to take advantage of both metro areas, which are only about 80 miles apart and could make a mammoth media market – especially with just one major league sports team (the Spurs) between them. Austin has somewhat better demographics, though.

BigDaddeh: Do different teams treat the AFL different or is it just a year by year thing? The Yankees seemed to really punt on this year’s attendees
Keith Law: Some teams always send org guys; some send real prospects. It’s a philosophical thing. I would always send guys who were either real prospects or 40-man bubble guys.

Moe Mentum: Fill in the blank for yourself (past or present) : I’m likely interested in any movie that has _______ acting in (or producing or directing) it.
Keith Law: I’ve seen about 20 Hitchcock movies and maybe 15 Cary Grant movies. I’ll also watch anything Billy Wilder did.

AJ: Who plays (or should play) the middle infield positions for the Reds in 2020? VanMeter just doesn’t look like a regular at this point, nor does Peraza.
Keith Law: I’d return Senzel to 2b and try to find a better CF option.

Nate: Keith, when trying to evaluate pitchers, the difference between fWAR and bWAR is confusing. Reynaldo Lopez, for instance, has been worth 2.3 fWAR (this year and last) while only being worth 0.6 bWAR. How would you best look at these two numbers in trying to evaluate whether he should be used as a back-end starter or potentially high leverage reliever moving forward?
Keith Law: Part of that difference is fWAR’s assumption that his LOB% is going to regress to league-average levels. Given how homer-prone he is, and the fact that he wasn’t appreciably worse from the stretch this year (he was actually better!), I’m not sure I buy into that. I always look at both versions, but I think the 2.3 for this year probably overstates his future value.

Jackie: Did you know that Matt Barnes is tied for third in most career wins for the Red Sox in this century by a homegrown pitcher — tied with the immortal Felix Doubront, behind Lester and Buchholz. Why have the Red Sox been so terrible for so long at developing starting pitching? Everyday players, they’re great — Betts, Boegarts, Devers, Benintendi, etc. But they can’t draft a pitcher to save their lives. Is it an incorrect organization philosophy, bad luck, bad minor league coaching?
Keith Law: It’s not the drafting … Trey Ball was a huge miss, but since him, they’ve taken Groome (consensus top 3ish guy in the class, still a prospect), Kopech in the comp round (still a great prospect, used to acquire Sale), and Houck (role unclear but absolutely a prospect). Look out for Thad Ward too – fifth rounder from 2018. They’ve traded some guys and had some developmental misses, but I think on the whole the bigger issue is a lack of numbers. They haven’t used that many high picks on pitchers, preferring to draft bats and trade for or sign arms.

Portmantoter: Hi Keith. I’m listening to the audiobook of ‘Smart Baseball’ right now and really enjoying it. I wanted to ask if you had input into who would be the narrator — I was hoping to hear your voice when I turned it on. And couldn’t anybody tell the poor guy that it’s pronounced Laj-a-way? Thanks for the chat!
Keith Law: They asked me if I wanted to listen to the three candidates but I said no as I was in the middle of something – maybe writing my top 100.

BigDaddeh: I know it’s just a few months into the career, but seeing Witt Jr in the top 10 of prospect lists seems off. Are you still all in?
Keith Law: He’s not in my top 10.

Mark: What’s a realistic trade for Mookie Betts this offseason and should the BoSox consider it given their financial commitments on the books and what it would take to sign him long-term? Would 1 year of Betts be worth multiple top 100 prospects to the team getting him? Is 1 top 25 prospect enough?
Keith Law: If you’re a team on the cusp of a playoff spot, yes, it’s probably worth giving up two of your top prospects for the boost Betts would give you. I can see many teams that would love an immediate six-win gain (conservatively) in the standings.

Jerry: Astros are about to make it through a full season without issuing an intentional BB. Assuming this makes KLAW happy….
Keith Law: Extremely.

Arnold : Nice scene at Fenway the other night with Mike catching Granddaddy Yaz’s 1st pitch (a strike!), then homering and expertly playing a ball off the Green Monster like Carl used to do. Young Yaz’s 20 jacks is more pop than the Giants have seen in years. Is that repeatable or is it likely that pitchers will figure him out with a year’s worth of scouting?
Keith Law: I think this is entirely the juiced ball. He’s never been a prospect beyond maybe an emergency callup.

Mark: Has Tim Anderson and Moncada shown enough defensive skills to stay in their respective positions long-term? Do you believe changing positions can negatively impact a player’s offensive production?
Keith Law: Yes to both players, yes to the latter question but it will vary by player.

Harper – Bat speed: Is there any chatter in the scouting community about Bryce Harper’s bat speed and/or ? His exit velo numbers aren’t awful, but watching him in person it really looks like he’s cheating to pull and it leaves him really exposed to high and away fastballs. He’s had a ton of injuries at a young age, and I worry we’ll never see anything resembling his 2015 season again.
Keith Law: Nope, have neither heard nor seen any such thing.

Felix: I’ve heard rumblings in chats that Casey Mize wasn’t the same when he came back from injury. What was the issue and how much concern should there be?
Keith Law: Don’t think he came back healthy. Stuff was much less crisp. Hoping it’s nothing, but aware there’s a good chance it’s a serious injury.

JT: I’ve been curious about a component of BA: is it possible that the lower the level of competition it is, the more important it becomes?
Keith Law: In general, no. There are, however, absolutely reasons to be concerned when, say, a guy with a plus hit tool fails to hit for average AND isn’t making quality contact on top of that.

Epsthoyer: Enjoy your chats, Klaw. My dilemma…JHey is not opting out, so do I trade Schwarbs and resign Castellanos or allow myself to believe that 2nd half Kyle is a sign of better things to come and fix the lineup through free agency (hello Rendon)?
Keith Law: Don’t you have to make a run at Rendon? Every contender that can sign him should be trying to do so. Best FA bat on the market, bar none.

Ian: Should Justin Trudeau resign and/or end is campaign?
Keith Law: Yes.

Rich: Did you see Chris Paddock having the year he did? Can he front a playoff caliber team’s rotation or do you think he’s more a #2 type in a playoff rotation?
Keith Law: Yes, I’m all in on him, as I mentioned in today’s column.

Champdo: Can Isaac Paredes be an above average regular?
Keith Law: Can, yes. Will, ehhh … needs a position, for one thing, and there is no projection left there whatsoever.

Brian: What do you think the Padres should do at 2B next year? Do they give Urias the first crack at the job?
Keith Law: Yes.

Brian: Is Ronny Henriquez going to be a big riser in the prospect rankings this winter? Numbers are impressive for a 19 year old in A Ball.
Keith Law: Age relative to league is a much less important indicator for pitchers – and his numbers are a mixed bag. Not saying he’s bad, just that your premise needs work.

Ben: What kind of MLB player does Austin Martin project to be? More Swanson or Bregman?
Keith Law: He’s not like either of those guys but I think he has star upside.

Ben: Who puts up better MLB OPS’s: Vaughn or Torkelson?
Keith Law: I don’t like or use OPS. It’s a math error. Vaughn is the better pure hitter. Torkelson will hit for more power.

G: I understand this Vazquez situation was out of the Pirates organizational control, but the entire team is in disarray, fights in the clubhouse, and their development of pitchers has been terrible under the current administration (Morton, Cole, Glasnow all improved dramatically after leaving.) Should everyone from the President down be fired at this point?
Keith Law: Lindsey Adler pointed out on Twitter yesterday that ownership was totally absent when the Vazquez news broke, and to me that’s a real symptom of the bigger problem there. Yeah, Hurdle’s probably toast, but he was put in an impossible situation.

Brian: What are you looking for next season to buy Jhoan Duran as a starter?
Keith Law: He’s been missing more bats with his fastball which I’d say is a very good sign.

Scott Upham: Like the Eugenio Suarez trade debacle, will Red Sox fans eventually regret the huge package Dombrowski sent to the White Sox for Sale (Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz)?
Keith Law: It helped the Sox win a World Series. That’s what you want, right?

Mike: I think Brandon Woodruff is a prime guy to become a #2 next year, what are your thoughts on him, health permitting?
Keith Law: Yes, he got an honorable mention on my breakouts column in March, and kind of made me look bad for not talking him up more until he got hurt!

Matt: Why isn’t my [player from my favorite team] on your list of players you were wrong about. I know you get dumb questions like this about specific players, but what sorts of things make you think a player is different than what you expected as opposed to over-performing and due to regress?
Keith Law: Two things: Some sustained level of performance at a new level – so, you know, half a season ain’t it, chief – and some tangible explanation for why the player is different. That could be a chance in mechanics or stuff, or something I missed when evaluating him.

Dallas: Dumb question: is it more likely someone trying to throw high strikes misses down (thus middle of the plate) or someone trying to keep the ball down misses up (middle of the plate)?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to that. My gut says neither, but that’s pure guessing.

Yan: How do you assess Corbin Martin assuming he fully comes back from TJ? Still a #2-3 type arm?
Keith Law: Yes.

Adam: When evaluating AJ Preller’s tenure as GM of the Padres, are the Myers and Hosmer contracts fireable offenses?
Keith Law: No, and besides, you don’t know if the Hosmer deal was Preller – it is unlike every other deal he’s done – or ownership.

section 34: Can you say nice things about the Orioles?
Keith Law: Their minor league pitching looks improved.

Carl: Miguel Yajure – What kind of upside does he have? How would you rank him against Gil, Roansy Contreras, and Luis Medina?
Keith Law: More chance to start than Gil. Medina is still kind of a wild card – seemed like he figured out some consistency late this season, always had the athleticism and enough of a repeatable delivery to get to this, but you have to see him do it for more than a third of a year.

Jack: Who should the A’s start in the Wildcard game? Fiers? Manaea? Hendriks (lol)?
Keith Law: Isn’t Fiers hurt?

Scott Upham: Is Tanner Houck a legit SP? Where does he slot in the Sox rotation eventually? Looks like a back end starter/middle reliever to me.
Keith Law: I think more likely reliever but am not at 100%.

Jimmy Kimmel: When looking at Pacific Coast League offensive statistics, are wRC+ and wOBA the only stats worth note?
Keith Law: No. I actually never look at wRC+ or wOBA for minor leaguers. It can be wildly misleading.

Reader: Parker Mushinski had a nice little season in Fayetteville albeit older for the level. Does he have MLB potential?
Keith Law: Saw him last week. He does not.

Marc: Not so much a question, but looking back at your older annual players you missed on pieces a lot of those guys actually didn’t turn out to be very good. Most of them were 1-2 good year(s) and done guys. Maybe you need to do a players I thought I missed on, but actually I was kind of right about column.
Keith Law: I’ve noticed a few of those but talking about it feels crass. No takebacks, right?

Jordan: What do the Astros do with Kyle Tucker next season? He has absolutely nothing left to prove in Triple-A, but the outfield is still crowded with Springer, Reddick and Brantley. Do they try and move on from Gurriel and stick Tucker at 1B?
Keith Law: I think he’s trade bait.

Dallas: Cavan Biggio hit for the cycle yet he wasn’t listed in your “I’m wrong” column? I’m confused.
Keith Law: That was funny.
Keith Law: I did point out to some crank on Twitter that other recent cycles came from Brandon Barnes (0.8 career WAR) and Jake Bauers (-0.6).

Reggie: Does Emerson Hancock have a Mize level ceiling if he puts together another big year?
Keith Law: I don’t quite think so.

Colin: Not really a question but just want to say that I’m happy Kolten Wong finally broke out after getting away from Matheny and want to give you credit for always being high on him even as Matheny dicked him around.
Keith Law: To be fair, I was low on him at first, then realized he was better than I thought, and got on Matheny for dicking around with him.

Dan: Yordan Alvarez tore up the MLB like the fucking dance floor this year, to the tune of a .318/.419/.671 line in 339 PAs with a 50 HR full season pace. I know you weren’t high on him as a prospect but has this year changed your expectations for his longterm potential, provided he can play at DH?
Keith Law: I never said anything remotely negative about his bat. It’s all about his lack of a position and the poor long-term outlook for a player with his body and poor athleticism. He can certainly hit and has power, although the 50 HR pace isn’t quite so special as it was a few years ago.

Jax: Adrian Houser’s starts have been somewhat uneven this year. He still project as a starter for you? He was tremendous out of the bullpen. Maybe he’s better suited there?
Keith Law: Still has starter stuff/build.

Pat D: Considering all of the stonewalling by this White House (evidently continuing as we speak), how am I supposed to think that this won’t be the norm going forward, regardless of what party occupies the WH and Congress?
Keith Law: I share your concern that this – not just the stonewalling, but the persistent lying and gaslighting – is the new normal.

Reader: The Astros sent Cody Deason to the AFL, did you get to see him in the Carolina league? Anything there?
Keith Law: Saw him too, and no, not really.

Curious George : I read an article about growth plate testing done on Ohtani as an amateur to project his growth expectancy at maturity. Is this common practice by organized baseball as part of the amateur scouting process?
Keith Law: I have never heard of this before and it kind of weirds me out, to be honest. I don’t want DNA testing either.

David: Keith, who do you think the Red Sox will target as their GM? And is there any chance Raquel Ferreira stays in charge?
Keith Law: Someone from outside the org with some name value. I have not heard anything to make me think Ferreira will or should stay in charge.

Craig: Orlando Arcia has been a replacement-level shortstop for the last two years and has been discussed as a possible non-tender candidate for this off-season. His talent and potential are obvious, but so is his lack of production. Should the Brewers keep him around in the hopes that he will realize that potential (like Carlos Gomez did) or stop throwing good playing time after bad?
Keith Law: If they’re trying to contend in 2020, they should at least explore other options. He’ll be 25 next year, young enough to still improve, but their ability to wait on that – and risk another cipher year at the plate – depends on their overall plan for the year.

David: Do you drink dairy milk?
Keith Law: Yes. Lactose-free, of course.

Ricof: Buying or selling Griffin Canning moving foward?
Keith Law: Buying if healthy but higher than average injury risk.

Mike: Can the pirates just cut vasquez right now?
Keith Law: No, they can not.

ScottyD in Downingtown: Who ends up being a more successful starter on their career – Puk or Luzardo?
Keith Law: I lean Puk.

Jake: Thanks for doing the “Players I was wrong about” articles. I find them fascinating because you not only admit you were wrong, but examine why you missed on a guy, what he’s changed or what you might have missed. The Castillo bit was the most interesting because you discussed how being wrong about him has had an impact on how you rate Paddack. I get to the end of this and realize I don’t really have a question, but I did want to let you know I appreciate what you’re doing and sharing the process with us.
Keith Law: It’s why I do them. Glad you enjoy those columns.

Mark: I like your music write-ups and use them to find new artists, songs, etc. Have you watched any of the Ken Burns Country Music episodes? Outside of my fondness for Johnny Cash, I wouldn’t call myself a country fan, but Ken Burns has done a fantastic job IMO.
Keith Law: Really not a fan of country music.

Bradf: You wrote earlier in the year that Austin Beck didn’t look good and he backed it up with a subpar year. Are you optimistic that he still possesses the tools to improve and eventually make it as a solid contributor in the majors? Thanks Keith.
Keith Law: I would say I’m pessimistic.

Andy: As I Lay Dying has a new album coming out. Everyone should entirely avoid this right? I mean dude served his time, but is still a giant POS.
Keith Law: Never liked their music anyway, but yeah, I could not fucking believe he was out of jail and recording again.

addoeh: From your article today on players you’ve missed on, it looks like Luis Castillo’s success has made you re-evaluate pitchers with a similar profile like Paddock. Have any other players had an impact on how you evaluate similar players going forward?
Keith Law: Absolutely. Every miss is a learning opportunity.

Adam: Does Soroka have better velo now than when you were not as high on him? (the delivery was your main contention i believe)
Keith Law: No, don’t think that’s changed.

Drew: Will the Cardinals sending Dylan Carlson home to “add muscle” instead of playing in the AFL benefit him?
Keith Law: I would have loved to have seen him play more, but he must also be exhausted from the long season. He’s played a lot, and very well, against tough competition.

JR: Enjoyed the guys you were wrong about column. Of the players you mentioned, who do you see as most likely to sustain their current production, and who do you see regressing?
Keith Law: I led with Bieber because I think he’s the most ‘real’ of the group. McNeil has already shown some regression, so while I don’t predict a big flop I think we may have seen his peak.

Jerry skurnik: While we in NYC focus on Edwin Diaz’ disastrous record, “proven closers” around MLB have been pretty terrible all season. Do you have any thoughts on why? Juiced ball?
Keith Law: The changed baseball has absolutely affected some pitchers more than others – for example, I think it’s played havoc with Diaz’s slider.

addoeh: Will Joey Bagodonuts or Tommy Hackenstein make your new book?
Keith Law: Joey Bagodonuts is in the new book. I can confirm this.

A big dumb idiot: What are the mechanics of a guy like Jordan Groshans being a decenly regarded mid first rounder to a consensus top 100 guy despite missing the whole season? It it similar to amateur scouting where a few looks displayed new and real skills?
Keith Law: For me, it was hearing a few pro scouts who caught him early say they bought his approach and power.

JJ: Speaking of Trout and the MVP, it seems like every years there’s an argument of Trout’s individual greatness vs. the non-competitiveness of the Angels. This seems, in large part, to be fueled by the BBWAA’s (intentional?) vagueness in defining the MVP. If you were asked to boil the award description down to one sentence, what would you say?
Keith Law: Which player did the most on the field to increase his team’s win total in that season? He’s the MVP.

Mike: Is the reason Felipe Vasquez wasn’t traded before the trade deadline due to the recent news? Did teams know?
Keith Law: Nobody knew. That’s kind of gross.

Steve: “It helped the Sox win a World Series. That’s what you want, right?” Unless you’re one of the vast majority of MLB owners and GMs who seem to value cost control and “glide slopes” above all else.
Keith Law: Yeah, winning the efficiency trophy isn’t really the ideal goal. I’m a prospect guy, and I still say trade prospects if it gives you a chance to win.

WhiteSoxAndy: Has the juiced ball reduced the value of outfield defense? Since the ball is flying out of the park anyway, is it better to just have power bats out there and not be concerned with average at best defense?
Keith Law: No, that doesn’t quite make sense … some balls that would have fallen in just behind the infield become playable for outfielders, and balls are coming at all fielders faster than ever.

Josh Nelson: Who doesn’t make the playoffs: Nationals, Cubs, or Brewers?
Keith Law: I think the safe guess is the Nats make it and the other two are in a dogfight that goes to game 162 (or 163!).
Keith Law: Yikes, Domingo German is on administrative leave for a possible domestic violence policy violation.

Kevin: Is Matthew liberatore a part of Tampa’s rotation in mid 2020?
Keith Law: Too soon.

Scott: I was happy to see Jeter Downs get honorable mention in your Prospect of the Year column.
Do you think his bat profiles well enough to carry him regardless of a possible position switch to CF?
Keith Law: Yes, it does, but why not 2b?

Jacob deGrom: Did anyone think I would becomne the best of the Mets starters? I was never ranked a shigh as Harvey, Wheeler, Matz or Noah
Keith Law: I think I can say this safely now. I know one person who believed in deGrom before anyone else in the industry: Paul Depodesta.

Brian: How come the Tigers seemingly always have solid pitching prospests but can never draft a postional player. Avila seems to be doing the same thing Dombrowski did. Hill was the last ” guy”
Keith Law: I think they still overdraft ‘name’ guys and focus more on traditional tools than most other clubs. They’ll nearly always be in a position where they think a player slipped to them, but in fact the rest of the industry has decided based on additional information that the player isn’t as good as previously thought.
Keith Law: Hill is a bit of an exception, though … his defense was there, he just hasn’t hit consistently or developed enough of an eye at the plate to get to it.

Steve: If Miguel Yajure makes it in MLB, I hope his nickname ends up “Force Yajure”.
Keith Law: That is excellent.

Ian: Cycles aside, Cavan Biggio’s combination of baserunning, defensive versatility, and power/patience at the plate seems at least interesting. What are the red flags? Where do you see him regressing?
Keith Law: He’s not good at any position, and what power? I checked yesterday and he ranked around 180th in HR this year – with 4 of his 14 coming off the Orioles, the worst pitching staff in baseball (en route to 300 HR allowed this year). The sudden optimism seems to be mostly because he’s had an outlier September.

Portmantotebag: Is Victor Reyes (.298/.329.421 with speed) growing into a regular, even if a second-division regular, instead of a 4th OF, or is it all still SSS?
Keith Law: Chance for a regular. Definite fourth OF.

Mikhail Bulgakov: I would love a return to the old baseball, but what incentive does Manfred have to make sure that happens?
Keith Law: The union could go a long way to making it happen. Pitchers aren’t happy.

JR: you’ve been doing these chats for about 15 years now, right? (Thank you BTW). How have the questions changed over the years, if at all? Do you think you get better questions now or the same? Do you get accused of bias as often? just as many dumbasses?
Keith Law: Over 13 years. First one was July 2006. Question quality improved when I had to move them here from ESPN.com. Still plenty of trolls and dumbasses, but I think the regulars among you help drown them out.

Arnold: If Yaz’s 20 HRs are entirely the product of the juiced ball, what does that say about the rest of the Giants’ team, where only one player, Pillar, has more HRs (21) in 200+ more ABs?
Keith Law: It says exactly what you think it says, and I’m sorry.

Josh: There seems to be some between the lines discussion about Will Smith’s catching. Talk about Ryu not as good with him, etc. Just noise or a little signal there? Not sure how much you have watched him since he’s been in the bigs
Keith Law: That sounds like bullshit to me. Nothing but raves for Smith’s catching all the way back to Louisville where he caught McKay.

Andy: Keith–your thoughts on DD being fire for doing what was seemingly his exact effin’ mandate?
Keith Law: That’s not really accurate.

Tim: You’ve written that Trevor Bauer’s 2018 season now looks like an outlier. Going into this year, were you thinking it was probably a fluke year?
Keith Law: I will be honest: I don’t think I gave it enough thought either way.

Scott: If the season ended today, who is Keith Law’s NL MVP?
Keith Law: Bellinger.

Ridley: On Twitter, Geraldo Rivera asked “At what point should a guy’s past no longer be counted against him?” Is it just me, or was that more of an admission of guilt than a question?

(p.s. The issue was as much with Kavanaugh lying about his past as with the contents of said past.)
Keith Law: Yikes. Also, the lying is the problem here. He lied under oath to Congress. That should be a disqualifying condition for any judicial candidate.

Alex: Whenever my brother-in-law starts getting on my nerves, I will invariably tell him, “At their peaks, Nomar was better than Jeter, and you know it.” It drives him nuts when I say this, but is it accurate?
Keith Law: Depends on how you say it. “Nomah was bettah than Jeetah” would be more powerful than the way you wrote it.

Todd: Can Jonathan Loaisiga be a real back end of the pen option?
Keith Law: Yes.

Kyle: Pete Alonso would be the most negatively affected player if the Happy Fun Ball goes away next year, right?
Keith Law: He’d still be an above-average regular, but guys like him and Suarez wouldn’t be 50 HR hitters.

Heather: As a Red Sox fan, in the last few years I’ve enjoyed watching Devers, Xander, and Mookie get better from year to year. Andrew Benintendi, however, doesn’t seem to be getting any better. It’s like he came into the league as a slightly above average player, and has never changed. Does he have another level, or is this it?
Keith Law: If anything he’s gone backwards this year. It’s surprising as he’s had a solid year vs LHP, which seemed like his big weakness, but it turns out he’s just not hit for anything close to the power projected for him (including myself in that, I would have thought the Happy Fun Ball would mean 30 HR).
Keith Law: I want to believe there’s another level but have no specific reason to argue that.

Bruce: Corey Seager came back this year after a couple of major injuries. What are your thoughts on his season and do you expect him to put up better numbers offensively next year after having an offseason where he does not have rehab? Do you expect Seager to move off SS for Lux in the near future?
Keith Law: The Dodgers seem disinclined to move Seager, and 3b is occupied at the moment. Not sure where else he would go.

Lee: Why is everyone talking like the Red Sox won’t re-sign Betts? Seems to me that with the Price and Sale contracts, they are pretty well committed to going over the luxury tax for the foreseeable future. Why would they all of a sudden pull back when one of the best players of his generation is up for free agency?
Keith Law: People are assuming that the Dombrowski firing indicates, at least on some level, an unwillingness to continue to blow past the LT threshold.

Nick: What is Zac Gallen going forward? Seems like a nice get by the ‘Backs.
Keith Law: Nice get for them indeed. Starter, not a high ceiling one.

Tony: Do you avoid use of the word “clutch” altogether? I get the samples are too small to have statistical significance, but is it colloquially fair to just say a walk-off HR is a clutch hit?
Keith Law: There are clutch hits, but not clutch hitters.

Chris: It turns out that I did indeed have that third pull of intelligentsia Black Cat the other day. So thanks for the confirmation in your video chat. Much appreciated.
Keith Law: Always a good choice. If my stomach could tolerate it I’d drink coffee all day.

Dan: Kind of a vague question, but when you’re cooking – how crazy are you about cleanliness? I see some of the Alton Brown stuff and, sorry, but I just don’t have the wherewithal to have separate poultry-only cutting boards or wear gloves whenever I touch a piece of meat.
Keith Law: I am not at that level either. I do have cutting boards I only use for raw meats, and a wooden cutting board I use for everything else. I stopped wearing gloves to handle raw meat in most cases because it seemed wasteful.

Luis: Not really a question but just a thank you for all the content (especially on board games). We just started out collection of board games and have established board game Thursdays as date night with my wife. Enjoying it very much and all thanks to your recommendations. Thanks!
Keith Law: Great to hear! Much more to come this fall on that front.

Mr. Bonnie Smalls: Hey Klaw, any reports on how Moniak looks in AFL? Do you still see him as a 4th OF/AAAA guy?
Keith Law: Saw him three weeks ago. Still the same.

Chris: Mariano has been my favorite player since 1995, sad I had to cancel him after the gag-inducing sight/sound of him walking into Roosevelt Room w Cheeto to Enter Sandman.
Keith Law: I mean, you can still love what he did on the field, right?

Jon: Paul Depodesta, the fat guy in Moneyball?
Keith Law: No, that was Peter Brand.

Mike: When the Tigers traded Suarez was he considered a “prospect”?
Keith Law: Yes. I don’t think they evaluated him correctly internally.

Todd: Been on anti anxiety meds for 3 years. Starting to get off them now. Any advice?
Keith Law: Do it slowly. Some new research showing that people tapering too quickly have very negative experiences.

Chris: It blows my mind how many so-professed “cooks” that I know acknowledge never using a thermometer like a Thermapen when cooking (particularly grilling meat or fish). Am I making too much of this?
Keith Law: Every serious home cook should have a thermometer and a scale. The thermometer I use most cost about $9. You can get a good digital scale under $20. They’re essential.

Frank: Thoughts on Bochy getting his 2000th win last night? Is there any doubt he is bound for Cooperstown?
Keith Law: He’s definitely getting into the Hall.

Mr. Bonnie Smalls: Love your chats Klaw, If you had to pick between tatis and Lindor for the rest of there careers who is your choice? Personally i’d take Lindor especially w the consideration of home ball park.
Keith Law: Love both. Tatis has more overall upside.

Jeff: There have been talks of the Diamondbacks relocating to Las Vegas or Henderson, Nevada. Do you think MLB will ever put a franchise in the Las Vegas area?
Keith Law: No. I answered this somewhere recently – maybe on Periscope? – but Vegas’ demographics are awful and they will now have two major league franchises there already.

Greg: Is Klentak’s most fireable offense not just failing to sign Keuchel, but showing almost no interest in doing so? Given the dearth of starting pitching, I still don’t understand how they weren’t seriously looking at him in June.
Keith Law: At the time, it seemed like their bigger need was the bullpen, not the rotation. Should they have signed Kimbrel? You should be glad they didn’t. So no, I don’t think Klentak has committed any fireable offenses.

JT: As a Canadian, I can’t say I’m not miffed at Trudeau’s unfortunate brown face, but his principal opponent is a guy who refuses to apologize for being anti LGBTQ today. Trudeau embraced Syrian refugees; his old opponent promised to stop accepting them.

The left eats itself; the right carries on, gaslighting and awful.
Keith Law: That’s a separate issue; there’s no way Canada should vote Conservative given how much that party has embraced the white nationalist and anti-LGBTQ movements.

Dan: Iced coffee? Cold brew? Or iced americano?
Keith Law: None.

Luis: My 7-year-old daughter loves Catan Jr. Im just worried that she is getting too good at the game (hahaha). Is there another boardgame you would recommend to play with a 7 & 5 year olds? My 5 wont commit to Catan Jr. for the whole game but she will at least play 50-60% of the game before she needs to turn her attention to another thing.
Keith Law: Ticket to Ride is great for those ages.

Andres: How in the world does Mike Minor have a higher WAR than Verlander? Minor has allowed more hits, runs, higher ERA, higher WHIP, less SO, more walks, less innings pitched … How is it possible? Defense alone cannot be it, can it??
Keith Law: I posted a link to a great Twitter thread on this from James Smyth.

Robes-4: Who is the next six gm? Keith law?
Keith Law: Hah, thank you, but that’s not happening.

JT: Vote splitting on the left in Canada (3 parties) leads to 37% majorities for the right.

Similar effect to the Stein/Sanders holdouts in ’16.
Keith Law: Yeah. Please don’t do that. The last thing we need is Trump Lite up there.

Bill: Not to be grim, but what musician’s death would impact you in the way that Ric Ocasek’s or Eddie Money’s has for many?
Keith Law: Prince’s did. Cobain in his era, especially since I was 20 and music was more integral to my life at the time. I still love music, of course, but it’s less central now.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week – back to book writing and a haircut appointment today. I plan to send out another issue of my email newsletter tomorrow, and this edition will talk about my new book, due out in April of 2020. Thank you all as always for reading and for your questions!

ESPN+ subscribers can read my Prospect of the Year column for 2019.

Keith Law: A war that must be won in the name of truth. Klawchat.

Lyle: How soon could the M’s run out an outfield of Lewis-Kelenic-Rodriguez? April 2021? Later?
Keith Law: Later, and while Lewis has had a nice debut, he hasn’t performed nearly well enough in the minors to pencil him in as their LF of the future.

addoeh: Have the Dodgers stumbled upon the Garden of Eternal Prospects? They called up a bunch the last few years (Smith, Lux, Buehler, etc) and it looks like there’s still plenty in the pipeline (Downs, Ruiz, etc).
Keith Law: I think they’ve drafted really well, have developed hitters particularly well (and used similar methods with castoffs like Muncy and Taylor), and then took advantage of the Reds this winter.

Sam: When can we expect any information about your second book?
Keith Law: I mentioned in this week’s newsletter that I will have information on it soon.

Moe Mentum: I know you’re a big FSF fan. And I just read O’Hara’s “Appointment in Samarra” based on your recommendation – thanks. Any other authors who might approach (but of course never match) Fitzgerald’s gift for storytelling and prose?
Keith Law: Specific books you might like: The Magnificent Ambersons, The Age of Innocence, The Awakening, and probably anything by Steinbeck.

Jim: North Carolina GOP, really?
Keith Law: Totally unsurprising.

Richard: Keith, in a chat of yours about a year ago, you said that Yoan Moncada is the kind of player who you think could have a lot of yearly fluctuation in terms of offensive production. He had a 97 wRC+ last year and has a 133 wRC+ this year. BABIP is high but quality of contact is elite. Is it reasonable to think that he puts up a bunch of seasons fluctuating between 110-135 wRC+ going forward, or do you think he’ll see significant regression/improvement?
Keith Law: I would bet the under on this year’s performance, at least. If you made that range more like 100-135 wRC+, I’d buy in.

Richard: Does JD Martinez opt out this year and if so, who signs him? Seems like his only serious suitors would be the Rangers, White Sox, and Blue Jays.
Keith Law: I don’t think so, because I don’t think the White Sox or Jays would bid on him at a level that would make opting out the right move.

JR: Pete Alonso is an easy guy to like, both as a player and human being. Donating part of the HR derby proceeds, engaging the fan base in a positive manner (i.e., not disparaging fans for not coming out but encouraging them to do so while coining an updated rallying cry – LFGM), and now defying MLB to an extent with the cleats to honor 9/11. Agreed?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Dr. Bob: Thanks for chatting, Keith. What is going to happen now in the NL Central? Cards win it? 2nd WC to ???
Keith Law: Fangraphs has STL at 76% to win the division; I won’t disagree. I still think the Cubs limp into the second WC spot.

Dave: Do you think Hoerner starts the season for the cubs at 2b and leading off in 2020.
Keith Law: No. He wouldn’t be up if they hadn’t had injuries that forced their hand; nice player but nothing in his 2019 line says he’s ready to be an average regular.

Chris: Keith, I have to ask the obligatory question: What should the Red Sox do now?
Keith Law: What they usually do: Rebuild without ceding major-league wins. They’ve done it before.

Craig: Campusano seems a little slept on. Do you like him?
Keith Law: Disagree that he’s “slept on.” High draft pick, well known within the industry. He’s very good.

Jerod: Thoughts on Trent Grisham so far and how do you see him going forward?
Keith Law: I’m buying. He was very much in that “guy you thought would hit but were wrong about” category for me till this year.

Appa Yip Yip: A lot of times you get people trying to play “gotcha” on you with players you’re not particularly high on based on small samples. I was just wondering how long you yourself need to see sustained big league success (like, 2 WAR season) before you shrug your shoulders and go, huh, guess I was wrong about that guy. Good for him.
Keith Law: I’d really like to see more than a full year for that. I don’t always have that luxury of time, but we’ve seen so many players have fluke years that it’s too easy to say “welp, I was wrong,” only to have the pendulum go right back the other way a year later.

JR: Can you work your bias magic against the various NL teams to ensure we get a five way tie for the second wild card? TIA
Keith Law: Jay Jaffe coined #TeamEntropy and I am a charter member.

Jeff: Time to move Posey to 1B on a full-time basis, trade Belt and ride Vogt for a year and hope Bart is ready in 2021?
Keith Law: If you think Belt has enough trade value, yes.

Craig: You into guitar pedals?
Keith Law: I only have two, a regular distortion pedal and a “full bore metal” one I got on sale because, fuck yeah, metal.

Bryan (Montclair): Do you think that J.D. Davis’ bat is for real, or was that just a ridiculous August?
Keith Law: I’m inclined to the latter.

Eric: North Carolina is the Florida of Ohios.
Keith Law: That works, especially with the whole “several big cities ruled by a gerrymandered GOP legislature” comparison.

David: Do you think the Henry et. al. were unsatisfied with Trader Dave emptying the farm system? Flags fly forever, but man, one year later, and it’s a disaster there.
Keith Law: It’s gotten a lot weaker, but I don’t think it’s a disaster, and some of this stuff (Groome blowing out, Flores passing away) isn’t anyone’s fault.
Keith Law: I think that was a factor. I can’t believe that would be THE factor.

Chris: Do you like Tool? Listen to the new album?
Keith Law: Not a fan, sorry.

Jerod: Last year the Brewers got within one game of the WS with an average run differential. This year they are negative and near the second wild card. Is this just noise or are they doing something different than other teams?
Keith Law: Some luck but also generally great bullpens.

Ben: With Yelich out, who’s your favorite for MVP – or is it still him?
Keith Law: It was never him, FTR. Bellinger has had the edge over him all year.

Luke: This is probably a dumb question, but why does the minor league season end with a month left of major league games?
Keith Law: Aside from this is how we’ve always done it? I think so teams could recall players for September.

Andrew: Thoughts on Blue Jays C prospect Alejandro Kirk? Posted a 153 wRC+ in high A this year.
Keith Law: I’m not sure how long he catches, given his body, but he can hit.

Zac: Do the Tigers have a hitting prospect that you are excited to watch or is it only pitching?
Keith Law: Riley Greene for sure. Paredes can hit, but I’m not sure where he plays and he has no projection at all. Hill can really run and defend but the bat has never progressed.

TK: I feel things like “clubhouse culture” are a bit overstated, but the Pirates must have serious problems in theirs. Three separate incidents (including a fight that has now caused a pitcher to miss the rest of the season) with their bullpen? Something has got to change there, no?
Keith Law: At some point, the manager has to take the fall, if only for failing to prevent such incidents.

Andres: 5 more good-to-great seasons, is Jacob deGrom a future HOFer? Despite the low counting stats.
Keith Law: No, that’s not close to enough. The bar is really high for modern starters and what you’re talking about probably leaves him short of 60 WAR>

Cole: It’s probably too early for this but who do you see as the major players for Gerrit Cole this offseason?
Keith Law: Any contender should be interested, but I assume the Yankees and Angels will both be bidders and could blow anyone else out of the water. They both have the resources and the critical need for him.

Jeb: Thoughts on O’Neil Cruz? Could he be a top 20-25 prospect by mid-season next year?
Keith Law: Way too optimistic.

Dan: How does Mickey Callaway still have a job? Dude constantly seems overwhelmed.
Keith Law: I would guess he’s the manager most likely to be fired by October, followed by Hurdle and perhaps Kapler. (That’s not my opinion on who should be fired.)

Jordan: I know it’s only 42 games in rookie ball, but it feels like Francisco Alvarez really has a chance to be something for the Mets. A 17-year-old catcher with that kind of pop in his bat is fun to see. Think he should start next year in Columbia?
Keith Law: I would probably start him in extended … after seeing the Phillies push Luis Garcia from the GCL to low-A, only to have him flop, I’m a little loath to suggest other 18-year-olds make that leap. Franco was an obvious exception, but I don’t know if Alvarez is ready – and 35 games in the Appy, while better than the GCL, don’t tell us a ton.

Ian: Would you agree that you enjoy being wrong about players? I always laugh when people get mad at you like you’re some kind of prospect magician.
Keith Law: Yes, if I were always right, this job would be boring. I get frustrated or even upset when I’m wrong for specific reasons – e.g., I didn’t listen to the opinion of someone I trusted, I didn’t see a player (at all, or just enough) and thus missed key information. But you can’t do this job unless you embrace being wrong.

Aaron: How many states would you refuse to live in based on politics?
Keith Law: Woof, probably 15-20 right now.

Guest: Matt Olson has been among 1b leaders since 2016 in drs/uzr/uzr150. When he was a prospect even the most optimistic outlets projected him as an average defensive 1b. Where do you think the disconnect between drs/uzr and the scouting community comes from?
Keith Law: I don’t think UZR/DRS do a very good job measuring 1b defense.

danny: I think you mentioned recently having The Nightingale on your list of movies to see. It’s fairly long, quite grim, with multiple rapes and killings along the way. I wouldn’t say it’s a bad movie overall, but really grim.
Keith Law: Yeah, a few readers have suggested it, but given how many other films I’d like to see + the fact that it’s not really new (it came out in 2018 in Australia, I believe), it’s lower priority.

Sean: Is Miguel Vargas a top 100 guy for you next year?
Keith Law: Possibly.

Mike: As a fellow liberal, how do we reconcile support for affirmative action and unions with the fact that Angel Hernandez and Laz Diaz have jobs?
Keith Law: I don’t see the disconnect. You’re conflating a macro issue with individual examples.

Pat D: I know he was an older rookie and not really that good a player, but what do you make of Daniel Palka’s season? Can he replace Kevin Maas in the baseball lexicon?
Keith Law: I think he can be a solid bench player.

Sean: Who has a higher ceiling between Matthew Allan and Manoah?
Keith Law: Allan. But much further from his ceiling than Manoah is.

Stu (UK): Cheers, Keith! My mates and I are big into baseball and have adopted the White Sox (don’t ask) – Will Luis Robert be great, or merely very good?
Keith Law: Either one of those outcomes is possible. It will depend on how he handles ML pitchers who have better stuff and can locate it more – I’ve spoken a few times about his issues with velocity inside.

Mike: Do you attend many music concerts (live)? Or do the ridiculously high prices of most concerts turn you off?
Keith Law: Saw Phish twice in June, tickets for another show in October, couple of others I might hit this fall depending on my own schedule. I can’t imagine going to a big stadium show but seeing a show in one of the many clubs around Philly isn’t very expensive.

Darin: Which would you rather see in person?

Immaculate inning

Unassisted triple play
Keith Law: I don’t even notice the whole “immaculate inning” thing.

Derek: Miguel Yajure another pop up Yankees prospect with starter upside?
Keith Law: Yes.

Johnny: It sounds like the Jays are not going to do much this off-season since they’ve repeatedly said they’ll spend when the team starts winning. What do you think they should do this off-season, and how far away are they, really?
Keith Law: There’s a small issue with that in that they may not start winning (enough) until they spend more money.

Jason: What’re your thoughts on Mike Tauchman? Can he be a reliable starter or 4th OF type?
Keith Law: Someone else asked how I ranked the Yanks’ three reclamation projects this year by confidence they’ll sustain their gains and I feel like Tauchman is third of the three, with Voit first and Urshuela second.

Zach: Mitch Garver has 30hrs in <300 PA. That’s Just Ridiculous.
Keith Law: Nice player, but come on. The Happy Fun Ball has screwed up everyone’s stat lines.

Steve: long term outlook on Austin Riley? He got hurt, but slumped badly both before and after. Should the braves attempt to resign Donaldson?
Keith Law: Not sure I buy Riley ever being a regular. Bat speed has always been questionable and we saw in the majors how that led to unworkable BB and K rates.

Marc: Julio Pablo Martinez looked like he started to turn things around the second half of the season. Any chance this turnaround is for real and he turns into the player the Rangers hoped?
Keith Law: I’m not sure he has the tools to be more than an extra OF. He’s really small. ++ run, maybe there’s a leadoff type (OBP and speed) if he’s strong enough to get to it.

mike sixel: Would you call up Kiriloff at this point? thanks<
Keith Law: Probably not.

Alex: Who should I be listening to if I liked Botanist’s Shape of He to Come? Also — over the next 10 years, what’s the over/under on additional Soroka All-Star appearances? Two?
Keith Law: I’m not sure who to compare to the Botanist … I’m not particularly a fan of black metal in general or that sort of largely non-melodic extreme metal in particular. Insomnium and Alcest both had new recent tracks I liked that had some death-metal vocals but also far more interesting music. If you put the O/U at 2.5 I’d probably take the under.

Pat D: Considering all the time he dedicates to it, would you consider yourself a bona fide celebrity if Trump started picking a fight with you on Twitter?
Keith Law: Not sure if that would be worth the aggravation.

Santos: Overall Kingery looks really good this year. Good defense, versatility, speed, decent power, etc. But his OBP is low. What’s your outlook on his on base skills going forward?
Keith Law: He’s never been a high OBP guy but I think he can hit for average and bring his K rate down over time. I still think he’s a ++ defender at second. Maybe after this year they turn the position over to him.

Sean: What is Ketel Marte’s “real” talent level at this point? Can he be an annual 5+ WAR player for the next few years? If this year is a mirage, what will change?
Keith Law: I think he’s a legitimately good hitter, although the .342 BABIP and the HR rate both feel like functions of the Happy Fun Ball … but if you told me he averaged 4 WAR over the next five years, with maybe 20 HR/year and a .320 BABIP, I’d buy it.

Jerry: Do either of Urquidy or Tucker have a chance to make the ALDS roster? How much of an impact can Toro make or is he just a guy?
Keith Law: Toro’s the least valuable of the three for the playoffs, I think. I’d try to get the other two on the roster.

BigDaddeh: Do you think McCleod has a good job scouting for the Cubs or is this a case of letting a guy do something different?
Keith Law: I assume the latter. Maybe getting him off the road so much. The travel of amateur scouting in particular really wears guys out. I couldn’t do it.

Pat D: Building off the refusal to live in a certain state question, would population size be a factor? Like is North Dakota more preferable to North Carolina because there’s less people to deal with?
Keith Law: North Carolina has both Raleigh and Durham, sizable urban centers with progressive populations, diversity, and the kinds of services I want in my community. I’d take that over an entirely rural red state like ND.

Bruce: Will Smith is off to a great start as a hitter – is his power for real? How does he rate defensively?
Keith Law: Power was there last year too and I wrote on my offseason top 100 that it was legit.

Rob: i know you like Elizabeth Warren. Any other D candidates that you hold in high regard?
Keith Law: Of the likeliest candidates, it’s her or Harris for me. Maybe Booker. I’m way out on Biden or Bernie.

Chewy Rich: Are you high on Jose Devers?
Keith Law: Not really.

Matt M: Best chance to become a 1 or 2 in a big league rotation: Spencer Howard or Luis Patino?
Keith Law: Patino has #1 upside; Howard doesn’t. Howard could pitch in a MLB rotation next year; I don’t think Patino could.

Jesse: Does Rendon make sense for the White Sox or should they be focusing more on wheeler or Hamels ?
Keith Law: Pitching.

Yan: Thoughts on Phillies pitcher Francisco Morales? Do you think he can be developed into a front of the rotation arm to pair with Nola/Howard?
Keith Law: Reliever all the way.

Matt M: When do you see Oneill Cruz debuting with the Pirates, 2020? Is he the SS of the future?
Keith Law: There is a 0% chance he’s a MLB shortstop for me.

Boris: Is the hate against the new ball old man “get off my lawn” nonsense because baseball is different than when i was a kid or are there legit reasons to be mad about it?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s “get off my lawn” nonsense when homers are up 22% from one year to the next. That’s a vastly different game.

Matt the Brewer Fan: Does Trent Grisham have enough arm to be a right fielder, so Yelich can move back to left next year? Is Grisham a .350 OBP guy, long term? Love your stuff …
Keith Law: I’d try Grisham in RF – yes on the OBP, I am really not certain about his arm.

Todd Boss: So, if Rendon walks and Strasburg opts out, the Nats are in serious trouble no? Either that or they commit $60M/annually for both guys on the wrong side of 30. WWKLD?
Keith Law: I think they could survive Strasburg leaving but without Rendon they don’t have a viable second option.

Pat D: Ever watch The Dark Crystal or have any interest in the Netflix show? Gotta admire that they kept it “low tech” and it looks phenomenal.
Keith Law: Loved the movie as a kid. Will watch the show this offseason.

Mike: Which prospect do you think the Reds will regret giving up most? Don’t know what to make of Trammell right now, but Gray seems special.
Keith Law: And Downs. It’s not really been a banner year for them, trading three of their top ten (maybe top five?) prospects, plus losing Greene to TJ.

Scott: If James Kapriellian stays healthy (big IF), is it reasonable to expect him to push for a rotation spot in Oakland next spring? It sounds like his velocity is almost all the way back finally.
Keith Law: I just don’t know if you can count on him to handle a starter’s workload in 2020, if ever. Loved him prior to the injuries but he has 97 professional innings over 4 full seasons plus one summer since he was drafted.

Dr. Bob: Riffing off of you Blue Jays take, both the Astros and Cubs–the two most successful tanking operations–stopped spending money and concentrated on acquiring young talent. Then when the talent was ready, they opened the pocketbooks for FAs. Right? The problem for other tanking teams (hello, Detroit) is that they don’t seem to be very good at building the farm system and getting the young talent.
Keith Law: Right, that works better if you draft in the top 5 a few times, nail many of those picks, and are aggressive at spending a bit before it seems like you’ll need to.

Joe: While it seems like the Orioles’ pitching prospects took a collective step forward this year, is it fair to say that the hitters took a step back? Feels like none of Hays, Diaz, Mountcastle, McKenna improved.
Keith Law: I would agree with all four of those assessments. Adam Hall took a step forward.

Yinka Double Dare: Every time I see Mitch Garver’s name I think of “Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute” from SNL – is it just me?
Keith Law: Well, not any more.

Brodie Van Wagenen: Should I be a believer in Amed Rosario for the long term? Over Giminez?
Keith Law: Yes and yes.

Jason: You are the new Red Sox GM. What are you doing with Mookie Betts?
Keith Law: Throwing large piles of money at him.

Tom C: Was listening to a podcast the other day and the usual “how can Trout be MVP, the Angels could be way under .500 even without him, it’s only cause of WAR, but wow the Yankees wouldn’t be where they are without LeMahieu.” Do people not realize that by their own logic there that NYY would still be in first place without LeMahieu?
Keith Law: No, they don’t, because they are not using logic.

Nicole: Will Gore pitch for the Padres next year?
Keith Law: Yes, probably midyear/later but yes.

Peter Hook: Do GM’s ever take into consideration a player’s popularity among fans when deciding whether to re-sign a free agent? Or is it strictly performace and cost?
Keith Law: Owners probably do, but good GMs should never consider that.

Mike: I know you don’t like the sac bunt, but do you want a hitter going to the right side with a runner on 2nd & no outs or would you want him to just focus on a hit?
Keith Law: Just try to hit the ball hard. Especially with the Happy Fun Ball.

Eric: Just a reminder that someone screamed at you incessantly that Ryan Howard was the preeminent power hitter of his time and his contract extension was a good idea.
Keith Law: And that someone is, last I checked, still employed to scream at people.

Boris: Does Elizabeth Warren’s stance on nuclear power concern you at all?
Keith Law: I disagree with her – nuclear power is pretty safe and doesn’t contribute at all to climate change – but 1) no candidate is going to match all of my views and 2) she’s shown herself to be fairly pro-science and may change her mind.

Joseph: Has Jordyn Adams impressed you this year? Just held his own?
Keith Law: Scouting reports were not favorable. He came into pro ball with less experience than most HS hitters, and the low K rate/total are promising.

Anthony: Do you think Willie Calhoun will hit enough to be an above average regular in the OF?
Keith Law: No, if we’re considering the value he’ll give back on defense.

Dave: You should look into adding chorus and delay pedals into your setup. Both add so much to guitar playing
Keith Law: It’s just me around the house, though. If I were playing with a band or even with friends, sure, but I’m just a hobbyist.

Preston: Assuming Soroka, Fried, Teheran & Folty are locks for starting rotation spots, who is the fifth starter for the Braves next season? Or instead of one guy, mix and match Anderson, Wright & Wilson?
Keith Law: Teheran has one year left on his deal and a 4.29 FIP this year. Folty can’t be counted on as a lock for 30 starts; neither can Soroka. I think they need to think more flexibly about their rotation for 2020 than assuming those four guys are locked in and the guys you mentioned + Touki are fighting for one spot.

Sean: What is the best case for Puk next year? ~20 starts and finishing the year as a power bullpen arm around 130-150 total innings?
Keith Law: Sure. Maybe on the lower end by innings, but it’ll depend on how he holds up.

Buddy: Do you follow the NFL? If so, did you see that OBJ wore a $300,000 watch during a game?
Keith Law: I did see that but I don’t understand why it was a big deal. If anything, shouldn’t he be concerned about breaking it?

Ben: Do you have a favorite one-player game?
Keith Law: I think Coffee Roaster is the best I’ve tried, with Friday a close second and definitely easier to learn.

Mike: I’m a pro-science guy, but I have to admit I’m really not a nuclear power fan. Yes, there are benefits to it, but that downside….I know, it’s very unlikely to happen. But I view nuclear power plants like idiots who ride motorcycles without helmets. Odds are nothing bad will happen, but when it does, oh boy!
Keith Law: We could start by, say, not building nuclear power plants on or near fault lines or on coasts that might be hit by tsunamis. The history of nuclear plant disasters is that of bad decisions, not really problems with nuclear power per se.

Jim P (TN): Do you think the success of BVW will lead to other clubs adopting the Mets model?
Keith Law: (spits out coffee)

Brent: Do you own an electric guitar as well?
Keith Law: Yep, a strat I’ve had for probably 20 years.

Josh: You watch (or watching) The Magicians show? My wife and I enjoyed the books, but the show seems much…lighter?
Keith Law: It’s on my “maybe some day” list. Loved the books.

Sean: Has Happy Fun Ball helped certain hitters more than others?
Keith Law: Of course it has, but I don’t think we really know who it’s helped more/most and won’t until the ball changes back – and it will. I don’t know what the baseball will be like in 2020, but I feel confident it won’t be the same as it was in 2019.

Joey: Hi Keith. As a recent divorcee who’s daughter has really taken to my new sig other, congrats. Moving on is always hard and having a child makes it scarier. But I’m glad you and your daughter nailed the landing.
Keith Law: Thank you. My daughter has really made me proud with how well she’s handled everything and how much maturity she’s shown in a situation where it would be perfectly fair and understandable for her to act like a kid, which she still is.

Sean: For anyone that thinks that the “downside” of nuclear power (catastrophic failure) makes it far worse than the benefits it provides, just retort with airplanes. Modern engineering is so ridiculously rigorous and robust that failures at a nuclear power plant require some sort of human-induced flaw and multiple steps before anything catastrophic happens.
Keith Law: Good points. Also, the downside of fossil fuels is a lot worse than the downside of nuclear power plants, and the former happens merely by using those fuels, whereas the latter only happens when there’s an actual disaster. (Availability bias!)

Joey: Luis Urías deserves at least another yr or 2 right? I get the Padres want to move to contention, but trying to rush development on a 22 yr seems like a sure fire way to sabotage a rebuild
Keith Law: For sure.

Jason: Is this the real Jorge Soler?
Keith Law: I think so, allowing that the Happy Fun Ball may be helping too.

Will: What should the Reds do with Gausman this off season? He’ll likely command $10MM+ in arbitration.
Keith Law: I’d give him that chance. The upside is there, and while the odds keep slipping … if that clicks, you get way more than $10 million in value.

Dr. Bob: If you get any more pedals, then you’ll need a pedal board to mount them on, add a tuner, maybe a volume pedal, then a better amp, and soon you’ll be haunting Craigslist looking for a deal on a Les Paul. It grows.
Keith Law: Yeah I love the hobby but I’m not looking for ways to spend more money or even acquire more stuff.

Matt M: Does Alek Thomas make it to big leagues sometime in 2020? Is he the future Dbax table setting lead off hitter?
Keith Law: He’s 19 and played just 23 games above low-A. That does not put any player on a timetable to see the majors a year later.

Jordan: Shane Baz started off early in the year with good BB/9 but it progressively got worse as the year went on. Control/command has always been the question about him. And while his BB/9 was manageable, I saw a lot of publications instantly move him up into their top 100. But I don’t think he is there yet.
Keith Law: Whether he’s on a top 100 – he was on mine – is not a function of his BB/9 (use BB% instead, by the way), but of his stuff, delivery, and projection.

Oscar: To play devils advocate on the nuclear power discussion, you say “the history of nuclear plant disasters is that of bad decisions.” But bad decisions ARE going to happen, inevitably, so don’t we want the results of those bad decisions to, I dunno, not kill us all?
Keith Law: The results of fossil fuel usage will kill us all.

Brodie Van Wagenen: Do I resign Wheeler? At what price? Seems like he’ll get $15-$20m or likely more a year for multiple years from someone, but I don’t think I can replace what he’s done— and in NY…
Keith Law: Make the QO, maybe offer 2-3 years, but my guess is someone outbids the Wilpons.

Raul: Manuel Margot since July 1
Keith Law: .254/.347/.486. Not quite the player I envisioned: I would have guessed more AVG/OBP and less power. He doesn’t strike out much at all, which is one reason I haven’t given up on him.

Guest: At some point does MLB have to realize that broadcasting playoffs games on FS1–with its relatively limited availability (especially in hotels)–is detrimental to expanding the game’s profile?
Keith Law: Well, that would mean MLB taking less money in the short term to grow the game in the long term, and the entire history of the league dating back to the 19th century says they won’t do that.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions. I should be back as usual for a chat next Thursday and a Periscope either Tuesday or Wednesday. Book details soon … just not quite yet. Thanks again!

ESPN+ subscribers can see my column on prospects who’ve gotten the call this September.

Keith Law: I’m being held up by invisible men. Klawchat.

JR: If Alonso was having this type of season 20 years ago (or even 10) would he be a lock for NL MVP (or at least top 3 candidate) solely based on the fact he leads MLB in HRs (assume for purposes of my question he does end up as league leader)
Keith Law: Probably, given how voters thought 20 years ago. I’m not sorry that this has changed.

Joey: Is Wil Myers toast?
Keith Law: Seems dramatic … but he’s been so bad for just about two full years now I don’t see any reason to forecast an improvement.

Guest: Klaw, Thanks for the chats. Appreciate your time and insights. any thoughts on Brailyn Marquez?
Keith Law: Saw him pitch on Sunday (as those of you who follow my mostly non-baseball Instagram account @mrkeithlaw know) and he was 96-100 for six innings with a plus slider and below-average changeup. It’s not a great delivery for a starter, and every scout I’ve asked about him has said they wrote him up as a high-leverage reliever. I think I’d feel better saying he could end up a Hader/Aroldis type out of the pen than saying he could be a mid-rotation stater.

addoeh: Why is the President more concerned about a state Dorian won’t come within a couple hundred miles of than states and territories and it has/will hit?
Keith Law: Might have to do with the electoral map.

Joe: Would you give Hunter Harvey another chance to start or just keep him in the pen?
Keith Law: I can’t see him starting after all those injuries and the extreme cross-body delivery he adopted back in low minors.

Bill G: Hi Keith. Thanks as always for doing these chats. I fail to see the logic of the opener, especially when they are followed by a bulk pitcher. Why use a good reliever in the first inning, followed by a bulk guy. It seems more logical to use the good reliever late in the game when there are fewer innings to recover from giving up a run. Please help me understand. Thanks!
Keith Law: The logic is that the first inning is the one inning where you’re guaranteed to face your opponent’s best hitters (1-2-3). You seldom get such an opportunity to line up your most effective one-inning arm against the best hitters in the other team’s lineup.

BigDaddeh: Is the prospect dream over for Florial?
Keith Law: No. I’ve never ranked him that highly because his pitch recognition is so bad, but you can also point to his youth and the fact that he’s had two significant injuries (hamate and wrist) in the last two years that probably hurt his performance as well.

Ben: What has Lux done differently to his game this season? It can’t be just the ball.
Keith Law: Just physical development, as far as I can tell.

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: Hey KLaw.

Benyamin Bailey is putting up an interesting .324/.477/.454 slash line in rookie ball as a 17 year old, with a 21% walk rate (with a 16% K rate). I’m having a hard time finding much info on him. What can you tell me about him? Is he a legit prospect? Thank You.
Keith Law: He’s not in rookie ball – he’s in the DSL, which is a step below that. I don’t pay any attention to stats there because the level of competition is so uneven.

mike sixel: Berrios seems to be fading again this year. A: Is he, or is it random? B: what, if anything, can be done about it (this year or next)? thanks.
Keith Law: I didn’t realize how pronounced his career splits were by time of year – he’s clearly less effective in August and September, at least. Better question for the Twins people, obviously, who might have a better handle on any biomechanical indicators, but I would at least ask if using him less early in the season would help him hold his performance later.

Ben: Your thoughts on the AFL beginning almost a full month earlier than usual?
Keith Law: I understand why they did it: teams didn’t like shutting pitching prospects down for almost a month and then having them ramp back up to pitch in the AFL. That’s a good reason. But it sucks for just about every other stakeholder, including scouts – and most teams seem to value the scouting reports they get from that environment.

barbeach: Thanks as always for doing these chats. This week was another reminder that Brodie’s bullpen construction borders on malpractice. Is there anyone in that group with a real future?
Keith Law: First, I don’t think Diaz is toast; I’d bet on some regression to the mean next year, and I wonder if the altered baseball is helping make his slider so ineffective. Lugo’s been good and I think he’ll continue to be so. I think guys like Gsellman and Sewald are capable back-end relievers. It’s not a good group on the whole, but the Mets aren’t starting from scratch in 2020 either.

James: Last week the Royals bunted for a single, sac bunted which resulted in an error, then sac bunted again which also resulted in an error. The announcers talked about the great strategy. Then an assistant to the GM said that one of the stats that he thinks is UNDERAPPRECIATED is the RBI because not everyone can drive a guy in from second base with two outs.
Keith Law: Well, this might explain why they’re 13th in runs scored.
Keith Law: By the way, did I see a rumor that their new owner wants to extend Moore’s contract? Is that even possible?

BigDaddeh: The Rangers have been playing Solak at 3rd base. Even good shifting can’t hide the glove, right?
Keith Law: I’d agree with you on that.

J.P.: Do you concur with the decision not to call up Robert?
Keith Law: I understand it. The flip side is that he’s getting away with stuff in AAA that major-league pitchers will exploit, and for him to keep developing he has to come to the majors.

PA Prospects: Any chance Spencer Howard can legitimately help the Phillies over the final 3 weeks, or not worth the risk of health or mental issues if not ready?
Keith Law: Not a bad idea at all. I wonder if they’ll call him up when Reading is done, and thus have him skip the AFL.

Mark: Anthony Rendon is really turning on the Jets towards the end of the season.Does he enter into the MVP discussion in the N.L ?
Keith Law: His stats are virtually indistinguishable from Bellinger’s and he’s not far behind Yelich. He should already have been in the MVP discussion, if we’re discussing serious, worthy candidates. I don’t know if voters have already made up their minds though.

Sedona: Will Canario be in consideration for Top 100 next year?
Keith Law: I don’t know for sure but right now would say probably not.

James: Did you play Tapestry and do a write up of it?
Keith Law: The game isn’t out yet. My review copy should be here in a few weeks, and I will review it. That’s a priority game for me even though my review queue is at least a dozen titles long (just for Paste etc., not counting games I’ll review on the dish).

Tim: Is there a plan with Vlad Guitierez usage next year? He was dominant last month as a starter. 10-15 starts for the Reds next year?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s a starter long-term.

Chris: So…Good Eats: The Return. Must-see TV for you?
Keith Law: Yes.

Matthew: What do you make of James Karinchak? Clearly he’s not a viable major league pitcher with his current walk rate, but the K rate is so absurd, is there possibly anything to dream on?
Keith Law: Just a novelty until he stops walking guys. Relievers sometimes turn that corner without warning – look at Kimbrel’s walk rates in the minors – but I have never thought we know which guys will do so.

Dana: I know the BABIP is unsustainable, but Bryan Reynolds has been incredible and he hit everywhere he’s been. Why was he never a top prospect?
Keith Law: He didn’t hit everywhere he’s been. He only slugged about .450 between high-A and double-A and was a touch old for both levels. Bear in mind I ranked him as a first-rounder out of college, so I thought those years were disappointing, but I also couldn’t rank him highly when he showed so little power for a corner OF.

Johnny Asel: What is wrong with Trevor Bauer this year?
Keith Law: Last year was the outlier.

JG: Should the Twins have concern about Buxton’s health going forward? Royce Lewis did play CF earlier this week…
Keith Law: Lewis can’t play SS. He has to move somewhere and CF makes the best use of his skills. I think that’s independent of Buxton’s injury history, but if BB doesn’t show he can stay healthy Lewis could usurp him.

Nick P: Have you read Fearless by Eric Blehm? Phenomenal read!
Keith Law: No, not really my genre.

Andy: Should the Tigers DFA Cabrera in the offseason? I’m not sure his spot on the major league roster is actually hurting the team long term?
Keith Law: I see 0% chance of that happening.

Nick P: Who is more valuable, Mike Soroka or Acuna Jr?
Keith Law: Acuna Jr. Not close.

Aaron G: Are the Astros the only (postseason) team with more than two starters that could reasonably get 3+ times through the order with any degree of confidence? I guess the Nats also fit that description, but that seems about it.
Keith Law: At a glance, those two are it.

mike: your weekly Biggio question, Defence is below average, good eye – seems to have average power but he’s nothing for a Jays fan to be excited about. Maybe a utility type bench guy right
Keith Law: Not even since he has no position. I enjoyed one Jays fan trying to troll me when Biggio had one good game, though. Stay dim.

Jubilant Earl: Last year, around this time, I asked if Christian McCafferey was going to be a top 5 RB in PPR. You’re response was terse; “what sport is that?” I need to know this year: will Aaron Jones be a top 5 RB in PPR?
Keith Law: Not close. Saquon, Elliott, the aforementioned McCaffrey, Kamara, David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, Gurley, Josh Jacobs … is Jones even top ten?

Hank: Has the Fernando Rodney trade lottery ticket Dakota Chalmers piqued your interest at all to follow in the AFL?
Keith Law: It’ll be interesting to see him but his delivery was pretty rough before the TJ. Maybe a two-pitch reliever?

Nick: Andrew Vaughn’s had a decent pro debut the numbers don’t jump off the page the way I would have expected them to so far. Maybe there’s some fatigue after a long season. What do you make of his first taste of pro ball? For a player whose value is almost entirely tied up in his bat, I would have liked to see a little more this summer.
Keith Law: He’s been playing since Valentine’s Day. I’m sure he and Adley are exhausted.

Rick: Hi Keith, Do any teams use RBI’s to judge players anymore. I sure hope not. Yet you will hear GM’s mention a players RBI’s many times Is the GM usually doing that because that is what the fans want to hear?
Keith Law: Probably yes, and because it’s easy (or lazy) to do so. But I don’t think any GMs still actively use RBI.

Hank: If Twins make a move for a frontline pitcher in the offseason, who would you rather hold on to: Kiriloff or Larnach?
Keith Law: Keep Kirilloff. I think he’s a superstar. Shame he was also pulled from the AFL.

Mr. Bergstrom: Hi Keith: would it make sense for MLB to return to a 154 game schedule in order to introduce another round of playoffs? Is there any reason to not do it?
Keith Law: Yes. One reason is that it takes 8 games (4 home games) away from ~18 of the teams. The other reason is that I fucking hate it.

Buscon Bob: Carlos Colemaneres, Venezualen SS, Top 2020 IFA?
Keith Law: No clue. Better question for Jesse Sanchez or my friends at Fangraphs.

Jon: Thank you for the chats Klaw. Thoughts on Joey Cantillo’s future? I know the velo isn’t there but it seems deceptive. Thanks
Keith Law: Correct, deception over stuff. Has value, hard to project starter.

Jared: Do you think James Karinchak will be closing for Cleveland by early 2020?
Keith Law: No. See above.

Mitch: What’s Patrick Sandoval’s ceiling? Mid rotation starter?
Keith Law: More back end.

Eric: fun stat:

In 2007, a 42-year-old Barry Bonds had a 1.045 OPS, and couldn’t find a job the next year because of reasons.

In the 12 years since, only 12 players have eclipsed that mark.
Keith Law: NO COLLUSION!

JG: Would you consider this a “bounce-back” year for Nick Gordon? Any improvement in his stock?
Keith Law: No. League-average OBP and below-average SLG while repeating the league.

Connor: Is Framber Valdez going to be anything more than a back end starter? That command just seems poor
Keith Law: Below-average for a starter, likely a reliever.

Jordan: I find it absolutely ridiculous that some Mets fans don’t care about losing Kelenic because he’s “just a prospect” and then they allude to guys like Fernando Martinez and Lastings Milledge. Do they not understand that the deal was bad no matter how Kelenic turns out because Van Wagenen completely undervalued him in a trade for a reliever, the most volatile position in the sport? Diaz posting a 5+ ERA this year is just the cherry on top of an already terrible deal.
Keith Law: Exactly. And he also undervalued Dunn. And overvalued the guys he got. It reeked of a GM in over his head, trying to make a big splash in his first week on the job, and DiPoto saw an easy mark.

Mike: Do you see a guy like Brujan looking like a candidate to substantially boost his hitting profile once he moves up to AAA/MLB playing with the juiced ball?
Keith Law: No. I don’t really think the premise works – everyone hits better with this juiced ball.

Max: So, Jack Flaherty looks like an ace in his last 10 or so starts. Could he become that? Or more of a #2?
Keith Law: I think I’d previously said #2 for him and would stick with that, but I’m not arguing. He’s good. Harvard-Westlake should produce more pitchers.

Max: Does Miguel Vargas have the potential to be the next great Dodgers position prospect?
Keith Law: He is a good prospect. The hyperbolic questions don’t really help, though.

Matthew: Tarik Skubal seems like a pop-up guy to a degree. His Double-A stats are pretty fancy though. Might he have a mid-rotation ceiling?
Keith Law: Answered last week. Real prospect, not a pop-up guy.

JR: Who’s the favorite right now for NY Cy Young?
Keith Law: DeGrom. Scherzer leads him in fWAR but DeGrom’s innings lead and counting stats will probably carry the day.

Eric: hey keith, can i go ahead and borrow some guns? a us representative said it’s cool to do that willy nilly.
Keith Law: Yep. Also drive my car. Doesn’t matter if you have a license.

Pete: Will Smith LAD is good but he’s playing over his head right now right? Is the ceiling a .350 OBP/30 hr bat?
Keith Law: More OBP. Maybe 25 HR but that’s quibbling.

Buscon Bob: Are you surprised more about Austin Meadows nearing 30 HRs or Travis d’Arnaud reaching 20?
Keith Law: Literally nothing surprises me with HR totals.

addoeh: The Cubs seem to have such an patchy record with developing their position players in the majors. Baez and Contreras have improved over time, but Almora, Schwarber, Russell, Bote, and Happ have either stayed the same or regressed. Are these outcomes about what one would expect or is it a concern?
Keith Law: Throw Russell out, not literally but … okay, well maybe literally. The others are all kind of surprising to me especially Almora. Thought he’d at least hit for empty average.

Matt: Give me some optimism here Keith, spencer Howard, how high is his ceiling? Did the Phillies finally find a gem in the draft with him?
Keith Law: See my post on him from last week.

ARod: You definitely would rather have a 2-run lead than a 13-run lead because even leads are gold.
Keith Law: He said that two straight weeks. It’s like he heard “sabermetrics” and googled “numerology.”

HH: If you had the choice between expanded rosters in September (as now) or expanded rosters in April, what would you prefer? I kinda think the latter would be more fun, and less disruptive to playoff races.
Keith Law: Yep and I think it would allow for slightly shorter spring training too, which I believe most players would favor.

Joey Joe Joe: Are you still in on Jakson Reetz? Seems to have put it together this year.
Keith Law: 23 repeating high-A. Wasn’t good when I saw him in the first half. Really need to see him do it at a higher level to buy in.

Stephen: I had submitted my question too late on Friday, so i will try it here: How would you rate the drafting decisions of Damon Oppenheimer over the last 4 or so years? in 2015 he drafted James Kaprielian & Kyle Holder while skipping over players like “Walker Buehler” “Austin Riley” not qbing from a distant, I just wonder if a team that will always be drafting low it is imperative that they hit on those picks. DO seems to miss more often. 2016 Blake Rutherford over so many others with more upside
Keith Law: Buehler needed TJ at the time and that may be why they passed – and why they took the same risk on Clarke Schmidt two years later. They’ve also found a lot of value lower in the draft.

Kevin: What is the bail amount set on Solar for murdering that baseball last night ?
Keith Law: That was a monster shot with any baseball. I go back and forth on how much of his breakout to buy, given how power-centric it is.

Ben: If you had only two nights in Chicago where would you eat for dinner those two nights?
Keith Law: Monteverde and Purple Pig.

romorr: DL Hall had a good season in A+ ball. The walks are a worry to me, but all I see is the stat line. Do you think it is a worry, or something fixable? Keeping him in A+ to work it out seems the smart play for 2020, right?
Keith Law: Great athlete with good delivery. I don’t see any reason he couldn’t improve.

Dylan: You say Brailyn Marquez has a below average changeup and is likely a reliever. But if I take this sharpie and add a few lines to his scouting report, he becomes a future #1 starter.
Keith Law: Yes, Mr. President. The truth is whatever you want it to be.

Keith: What is your POV on how teams should be handling high school pitchers in their first year after the draft? What were the varying approaches that different orgs took, and what are the pros and cons of each?
Keith Law: Other than being conservative with in-game pitch counts, which we know is a good idea, I think teams are mostly just guessing at how to keep them healthy.

romorr: Santander has been a bright spot for the Orioles this year, it’s not a seasons worth of ABs, but the results are there. Think he can be a viable starter in RF for 150+ games a year? I remember he wasn’t a nothing prospect, just lots of injuries.
Keith Law: Yeah I’m buying that one. Average regular.

Jerry: Thoughts on the Astros/Verlander flap with the Detroit reporter. I found it disappointing that the Astros and Verlander were that petty. One of the Astros former beat writers said on Twitter that this wasn’t the first time they’ve done something like that.
Keith Law: Astros were completely in the wrong, as was Verlander. Unequivocally so. If there’s an issue with the writer, it has to be handled at another time. The team is obligated to respect his credential.

jack: Can Alec Bohm be a competent 3rd baseman for a few years? Until the NL implements the dh
Keith Law: If “competent” means average, no. If it means a 45, yes.

JR: when you do the podcast with Buster, do you know what questions he will be asking you in advance so you can prepare? Or just shooting from the hip?
Keith Law: He tells me a few things before we start recording but that’s it. I think I do better when it’s extempore anyway.

John O’Reily: What is Roasny Contreras best case scenario
Keith Law: Tightens the CB and becomes a #3 starter.

Robert: Luis Basabe has had a better second half. Could some of his issues in the first half be related to the broken hamate? Is he a candidate for a bounceback in 2020?
Keith Law: I believe all of this is true.

Dice Throne: Have you played any of the games in the Dice Throne series? Hearing good things and wondering what you think
Keith Law: I have not, sorry.

Chad: Does Seager or Lux profile better as a shortstop going forward?
Keith Law: Lux, for me.

SK: So we’re now two years into Max Kepler hitting lefties as well as he hits righties. Considering how bad he was against lefties earlier in his career, is this sustainable?
Keith Law: I’m in. Now MLB needs to get his face on billboards all across Europe.

Buscon Bob: With the FSL playoffs cancelled, should Wander Franco be given a taste of AA?
Keith Law: Why not? I see no downside.

Ira: Aren’t the Yankees best served letting Didi walk and moving Torres to shortstop and using that money on a front line starter? I assume Didi will want long term deal.
Keith Law: I would.

Dan: Are there any literary classics like 1984, To Kill a Mockingbird, Catch 22, etc. that you make a point to read every so often just to make sure they’re always fresh in your mind?
Keith Law: No, just because there are too many other books I want to read.

Sarah: This was reported in late June – given the year he’s had, do you think it explains Bauer’s struggles? “On multiple occasions this year, Bauer has mentioned after starts that he’s been battling something physically. It hasn’t allowed him the mobility he needs during his deliver to really rear back and get the bite and spin on his pitches that he wants. He said on Wednesday that he felt better, but, he still hasn’t felt entirely comfortable on the mound. He hasn’t given any details on what he’s dealing with, but, something is there.”
Keith Law: Of course, yes, it’s the reed.

Andy: I must have missed all the articles about how attendance plummeted for the White Sox, Nationals, and Dodgers. I was told (by others) that was the only possible outcome of extending the netting.
Keith Law: Yes, please send me those links.

Dallas: Do you have a preference between DRS and UZR? They can be so different for example Bogaerts is -20 DRS but 1.8 UZR; Rosario is similar -14 DRS -1.8 UZR?
Keith Law: I look at both, but prefer UZR slightly.

Henry: Your cat was outstanding on Baseball Tonight a a couple of weeks ago. Can’t wait for your new book.
Keith Law: He made a real racket this morning and I have no idea why. Thanks.

Guest: Small sample size for Aristides Aquino? Legit or somewhere in the middle?
Keith Law: Somewhere in the middle.

Scherzer’s Third Eye Color: With the likely Cole departure, and A’s getting Manaea,Puk, Luzardo and Montas back in the rotation. And a full season of Murphy at catcher, can A’s challenge Houston for the division in 2020?
Keith Law: I don’t necessarily buy that rotation. All four have had injury issues this year. Three have had multiple injuries in their careers. Montas never projected as a starter for me. How many total starts do you think the A’s get from that quartet next year? 75?

Anchen: Phillies fans seem to mostly hate Gabe Kapler at least as their manager. Do you have any views on him either on field decision making or off field? Example, he has for the most part not benched players who didn’t hustle. What do you think of the general cost/benefit of benching a player for something like that?
Keith Law: I don’t quite get the vitriol directed at him – my gut says that a lot of it is “he’s different, so we don’t like him.” He’s made good moves and bad moves, been good for some players and maybe not good for others, but I think he’s been a net positive, and I don’t blame him for the utter implosion of their opening day bullpen.

JM: If Rendon walks, can Kieboom play 140 effective games at 2nd or 3rd in 2020?
Keith Law: It’s an enormous drop in production. I think he needs to play 2b over 3b.

Jason: Can you name the one prospect whose stock has increased the most this season, and one whose stock has dropped the most?
Keith Law: Not right now. Maybe in December or January when I’ve taken a thorough look at everyone.

Dallas: Sheldon Neuse’s BP defensive rate stat FRAA is very good at 3B while in Triple-A; could he start at 3B for other teams giving Oakland a nice trade piece?
Keith Law: I don’t use that stat. Having seen him in the low minors, I think he could be average at third, probably the same at second.

Vincent Adultman: Have you traveled to Japan and how long of a stay would you recommend for a first time visiter?
Keith Law: Never been. Would love to go, for work or tourism.

romorr: Orioles have been bad, no denying. But this is a good bad right, giving guys playing time to see if anything sticks. Maybe find some value to build, or trade.
Keith Law: Yes. Elias et al inherited a very weak foundation.

Mike: Thoughts on Braxton Garrett this year? Any chance he’s going to crack the top 100?
Keith Law: Wasn’t he on my midseason top 50? He was a top 50 prospect before the injury – chance for plus command with an average fastball and plus breaking ball. Stuff is definitely back.

Ryan: Pavin Smith has had a very good season, and he really turned it up in the last couple of months. Have you heard about anything he may have done to improve in the second half? Thank you!
Keith Law: He’s had an okay season, for a first baseman. Still nowhere near enough power.

Matthew: Since acquiring Carson Kelly, has the door closed on Daulton Varsho as a catcher? Might he be a part-time backup?
Keith Law: Other teams doubted Varsho would stay at C before the trade, between his own defensive issues and the desire to get a bat/athlete like him to another position. So I think he moves permanently in the next 12 months.

A. person: First trip to NY in a few weeks. Staying in Manhattan. What should we eat?
Keith Law: I mean, it would depend entirely on what you like to eat. NYC has just about everything. You could go full New York and focus on pizza and bagels and Jewish and Italian-American food … but you could also take advantage of the cornucopia of cuisines available in the city’s innumerable ethnic communities.

Chris: Logan Gilbert seems to have answered most of the doubts some had about him at draft time. Is a #2 starter too lofty of a projection?
Keith Law: It’s within reach.

Brett: Do you ever wear hats? You strike me as someone who doesn’t wear hats.
Keith Law: If I’m at a game I almost always have a hat on.

Adam: Thoughts on the season Gabriel Arias is having?
Keith Law: So young for high-A … glad to see the good contact, but the low walk rate/moderately high K rate aren’t great. I hold to the fact that he’s just 19 in high-A, though.

Bill: Hey Keith. What was the most recent election in which you voted for a Republican?
Keith Law: 2004, I think?
Keith Law: Actually I may have voted for one or two downballot in 2008, when I lived in Massachusetts and there often weren’t two candidates listed for certain offices.

Jeremy B: Keith, no real question, just a thank you for suggesting Juniper & Ivy in past chats. Was in SD two weeks ago. Not sure I’ve ever had a meal that good. Thanks again
Keith Law: I haven’t been in 2+ years but am going in December come hell or high water. It’s one of the best restaurants in the country.

Jason: How easy is it to teach a group of people to play Everdell and to understand the game quickly?
Keith Law: I think it’s easy to start. The game is structured in a way that the beginning round is simple, and the complexity increases as you go along, so you’re not just thrown to the wolves in round one.

Sam W : RE- Cy young. With the way he’s pitched the last two months and the cardinals ascent to the top of the division seemingly in conjunction, do you think that Jack Flaherty should be in the conversation with seemingly no clear front runner at the moment.
Keith Law: Absolutely not. This is a full-season award, not a last-two-months award.

Eric: while it’s more fun to make drawing on a hurricane map the news cycle for four stupid days, let’s not forget that there are children being locked up on our border and families being cruley separated every day. this should never be out of the news cycle as long as it is happening.
Keith Law: And efforts to legislate trans people out of existence. And rollbacks of environmental regulations that threaten our water supply, air quality, and global climate. And persistent attacks on women’s rights. And now the gutting of funds for our armed forces. And just wait until the next epidemic hits and we’re underfunded or just unwilling to send help.

Guest: Is Derek Hill’s glove still good enough to make him an everyday starter in Detroit?
Keith Law: He’s at least a half-grade of bat from that. The glove/speed make him a bench piece.

Aaron: What kind of upside do you think Simeon Woods has? Top of the rotation potential?
Keith Law: Hah, no, not close. Wrote him up here.

Chris (Raleigh, NC): Hi Keith — No question, just wanted to say thanks for all the great columns, chats, etc. I look forward to reading them every week. When you write your next book maybe you could consider a book signing in the Raleigh/Cary area. It would give you an excuse to partake in some of the food options here…
Keith Law: It’s on my personal short list of places where I didn’t do signings last time but would love to hit this time.

Mike: Re: Garrett – would you believe I looked at the 2019 and 2018 lists, but not the midseason? Apologies Keith – love the chats!
Keith Law: Thanks, I was unsure if I’d included him when you asked.

Mike: Favorite Minneapolis restaurant?
Keith Law: Revival.

Paul: I appreciate you keeping us up to date on your varied interests. What do you do to stay active? Are you into Tennis, Golf or anything like that?
Keith Law: I bike around the neighborhood in the spring and fall, usually with my daughter, and go to the gym in the winter. Never cared for golf. Would play tennis but am terrible at it.

Mark: So you went to Jamaica and stayed on the resort with a bunch of white people?
Keith Law: Good try, but no, the guests were mixed, whether by race or national origin. The only thing we all had in common was that we were all adults.

Kendra: You need to try Cloak and Petal and King and Queen Cantina in SD. Both just up the street from J&I. Also Craft and Commerce for drinks. And there’s a Salt and Straw there too. Really a great food city.
Keith Law: Excellent. I think I tried C&C once a few years ago. Thank you.

Jason: I’m very enthused by the start both Will Smith and Gavin Lux have gotten off to, but would you have traded one or both for a lockdown Closer like Vazquez knowing that it’s awfully tough to get to the World Series 2 yrs in a row, let alone 3x
Keith Law: No.

GOTCHA: why do people come to your chat to try to get you, like dumb mark?
Keith Law: It’s one dumb guy, pretty much every week. He doesn’t learn.

Brett: Are you an Apple Watch guy?
Keith Law: I’m not. I need fewer devices, not more.

Nick: When you say that a pitcher could be a 3 is that like Tanaka? Eduardo Rodriguez? The rotation is so different for each team a comp would be helpful.
Keith Law: I have two definitions I try to use for that. One is that there are roughly 15 aces (#1 starters) in any given year, 30 #2s, 30 #3s, etc. The other is that a #3 starter should be league-average, and you work outward from there. Both are a bit wibbly-wobbly timey-wimey but you get the gist.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions. I’m hoping to resume semi-regular periscopes now that the season is winding down, and my email newsletter should become more regular too. I should be back for another chat next Thursday as well. Thanks again!