You can pre-order my new book, The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Can Tell Us About Ourselves, now through any bookstore.

Keith Law: I am unwilling to uncover my eyes. Klawchat.

Tony: It seems pretty interesting to me that all the coaches the Phillies fired this year (Young, Mallee, Kapler) have either immediately new work or seem to be on the verge of new work. Makes me think that maybe it wasn’t the coaching that was the issue in Philadelphia
Keith Law: I wondered if the Kapler dismissal, at least, was from ownership, not baseball operations. It came far later than a GM would ordinarily like to make such a change, and during the season I never heard anything from their front office that made me think Kapler’s job was in jeopardy.

Royal Pains: You referenced seeing Erick Pena, last week in the chat. Any initial thoughts other than the advanced physique? And being forever away
Keith Law: Not really. I saw one instructs game and wrote him up briefly on ESPN.com, but I don’t want to draw big conclusions from a few at bats in a barely-game from a 16-year-old, either.

Nate: Keith, accepting the QO for Jose Abreu is a no-brainer, right?
Keith Law: I think so.

Jeffrey : Did Tony Clark overreact? Is this sounding like a bad divorce where if somebody sneezes looks at you the wrong way it’s time to close the lawyers? Is this good for baseball? Kind of fans have their say at the table when all is set between labor and management?
Keith Law: I did not read Anthopoulos’ comments as indicative of collusion – it sounds like a GM describing the typical due diligence he would do with the GM meetings coming up. You call other GMs and ask what their plans are to try to see if you might line up on any trades. “Hey, we have extra starters we’d part with in a deal for X, and you have needs in your rotation. Do you plan to fill those via trades or free agency?” That’s not collusion. Asking if another GM intends to bid on Gerrit Cole would be collusion, of course, or even asking how much they might have budgeted to spend on free agent starters would, but I didn’t read the comments like that at all.

Mike: Favorite book and movie of all time?
Keith Law: My favorite book of all time hasn’t changed. As for movies, I don’t have a single, clear favorite. Many I love and recommend, but it’s hard for me to compare watching Double Indemnity and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and Amelie. They’re all such different experiences, and Double Indemnity didn’t have the technical advantages of the latter two.

Dan: Favorite razor / shaving cream?
Keith Law: That’s a fun one. I’m boring, though: Gillette Mach whatever razors, Nivea shave gel. And I only shave about every week and a half.

Nate: Keith, will you put out a draft prospect watch list before the season?
Keith Law: Yes.

Sean : Hi Keith, I have a question that I hope isn’t getting too personal.. I know you have mentioned your anxiety before.. I also deal with anxiety quite often – maybe not as much as someone else but still feel like it still takes over a good portion of my life. What are some ways you have found work for you to combat with your anxiety?
Keith Law: I’ve mentioned this acronym before, EMMET: Exercise, Medication, Meditation, Eating, Therapy. That’s not in order but it’s easy to remember. I would say therapy is probably the most important component, and it’s possible that that’s most of what you need. I just would emphasize that you shouldn’t resist medication like I did for years – my life is substantially better across the board since I started taking a low dose of an SSRI.

JJ: No chance Chaim Bloom can trade David Price this off-season, right? Some media types in Boston are playing up an idea that the Rangers might be interested, but I can’t see a reason why any team would be interested in paying $32 million a year for the next three years for his past glory.
Keith Law: His elbow would be the obstacle. I can’t see how the Red Sox could effectively insulate the acquiring team from the risk of Price’s elbow blowing up.

Jacob: Is there an Ivy League school you would discourage your child from attending?
Keith Law: No. They’re all good schools, and they all confer positive name value on graduates in just about any field that might matter – academic, corporate, nonprofit. The biggest reason to go to an expensive private school is either the value of its name or the network of contacts you develop there. I don’t think the typical private school is providing that much higher quality of an education, and your child will likely have a great social experience at less expensive schools. But elite colleges have brand equity that makes a tangible difference.

Ken: How’s your Josh Ritter fandom coming along? He is my favorite live performer.
Keith Law: I’m not a fan, sorry.

Sven Goindon: Hi Keith: where do you think Dellin Betances ends up next year and what kind of contract do you think he’ll get, given he missed all but 2/3 of an inning this season. Thanks.
Keith Law: I imagine a one-year, incentive-laden deal. $2-4 million base, chance to get to $10MM if he’s healthy all year?

Jackie: Anybody catch your eye on the “Modern Era” ballot for the HOF? I would say that the Harold Baines selection last winter really lowered the bar to an unacceptable level, so it would probably be for the best if the veterans’ committee only selected Marvin Miller, just to restore a level of exceptionalism to the player’s side of things.
Keith Law: Whitaker and Evans belong in the Hall, as does Miller. Don’t let the Baines fiasco hurt players who are truly deserving.

xxx(yyy): any major changes expected to your cooking gift guide this year?
Keith Law: Tools, no, but cookbooks yes. I think the biggest addition to my cooking gear of the last 12 months is an Ooni outdoor pizza oven, which I absolutely love, but which isn’t exactly a necessity.

Bruce: Reynaldo Lopez has a few brilliant starts each year that give you hope and then follows that up with a bunch of awful starts. Can he be a reliable starter or should he be in the pen?
Keith Law: I’ve always maintained he needed to go to the bullpen. His delivery is tough to repeat – it’s similar to Severino’s, so I suppose there’s some injury risk too – and he doesn’t have a viable way to get LHB out.

Heather: Which team should offer the most for Mookie Betts this winter, regardless of the fact that he’s definitely hitting the FA market after next season?
Keith Law: A team trying to contend right now that would probably be on the outside looking in if they don’t acquire someone of Betts’ caliber. San Diego, the White Sox, and the Mets all fit. The Cubs would too, but if the Red Sox want young pitching, as I suspect they do, that’s not a fit.

Gene: Kieth, I wanted to ask for clarification regarding your opinion on Buck Showalter. I am a regular reader, an occasional submitter, and, generally, like minded with your opinions in most cases, but I don’t understand your feelings regarding Showalter. I know from past comments that you feel he is an old school instinct coach rather that committed to data application, and you have also voice concern regarding his use of pitchers like Bundy. The Bundy thing always stuck with me because he seemed to have been damaged in high school and travel ball from over use. After the arm injury in the minors, I thought the O’s were just trying to get what they could out of a perishable commodity. While I never understood some of the things the O’s did with pitching prospects during his tenure, the side of the rubber or the insistence of having pitchers shelving the pitches that got them drafted in favor of the FB, CH, CB, repertoires, I wasn’t sure how much of that was on Buck or was organizational.
Keith Law: That was entirely on Buck, as was some of went wrong with the use of Hunter Harvey and Cody Sedlock, as well as the constant messing with Kevin Gausman’s and Jake Arrieta’s positions on the mound, and some other stuff that I’ve heard on background that involved coaches Buck employed. Maybe he’d be different the next time around, but I can’t look at his tenure in Baltimore without noting how young pitchers failed to develop under him.

xxx(yyy): what happened with Jurickson Profar? Literally had the lowest BABIP of any qualified hitter in 2019, and one of the 4 lowest of the last 10 years. While there is hope for some level of bounce back is he cooked?
Keith Law: I don’t have a good answer for that, other than to say I was floored by the low BABIP. Maybe the shoulder isn’t fully healed, or he’s pulling his punches out of fear of reinjury? Either way, if that doesn’t improve in 2020, he’s probably done.

Alex: More viable market for an MLB franchise: Tampa or Montreal?
Keith Law: Tampa, but not with a stadium in St. Petersburg.

brett: when will you start your offseason articles series’?
Keith Law: Prospect stuff? End of January/early February.

@Tepper: Has your opinion changed at all on Willie Calhoun? Seems like he acquitted himself OK in his first year in the Majors…
Keith Law: .323 OBP for a well below-average defensive LF who probably needs to DH. 93 outfielders had 600+ innings in the field in 2019; Calhoun’s UZR ranked him 85th, and his dRS was worse.

Steve: Will Harris should also take his QO, right?
Keith Law: Yes.

Brett: Do you still believe in Corbin Burnes as a SP? He was electric in his first year as a RP but was lost this year. Brewers need him to pan out as a SP?
Keith Law: I do, if he’s healthy. Also heard of a small mechanical flaw the Brewers are hoping to fix … we’ll see if that comes to anything.

HH: Is Triston McKenzie still progressing? I don’t see him talked about much at all anymore.
Keith Law: He missed all of 2019 due to injury.

Nash: Mr.Law, has Twins pitching prospect Jordan Balazovic propelled himself onto your radar?
Keith Law: He was already on my radar.

Pat D: I remember you had a harsh view of the current committees for HOF voting. I think that their ballot for this year has 4 guys who I could easily vote for (Evans, Simmons, Whitaker, Miller). Is it at least a decent ballot in your view?
Keith Law: Agreed, and I wouldn’t object to Simmons getting in.

Jacob Zaldin: What do you think is the biggest problem around the league right now? Do you think that the Nationals winning the WS and the subsequent articles ran about their use of old-fashioned scouting over analytics will affect how other teams operate?
Keith Law: I think those subsequent articles were about 90% bullshit, so, no, I don’t think so.

Tracy: Yan Gomes not in your Top 50 FA. Was your list compiled before the Nats declined his option or is he not in your top 50 b/c he’s not that good?
Keith Law: He’s not that good. I considered everyone with an option for the list and adjusted if I guessed wrong (I had Quintana on the list, for one).

Eric: Favorite something/other?
Keith Law: Oh definitely other. Big fan of other.

Hubert: Hi Keith, I was wondering how do you assess the Rays front office after the departure of Chaim Bloom?
Keith Law: He’s great, and I think he’ll do great things in Boston, but the Rays’ front office is very strong down into scouting and R&D and I think they can weather the loss.

Brandon J: I’m not suggesting that the dodgers don’t “go for it” every year, but if you were running the team, would you blast past the CBT to make a couple of big signings this offseason?
Keith Law: Yes.

John: Do you think Odorizzi gets signed to a long term deal with the draft pick penalty or is he a player better off taking the QO?
Keith Law: I would be concerned if he doesn’t get a long-term deal. That would feel suspicious to me.

Dave: Do you have a favorite album of 2019 or one you’re particularly looking forward to in 2020?
Keith Law: I will do my annual best albums of the year post in December; I have several candidates, with a bunch of new ones hitting the last few weeks (Alcest, White Reaper, Michael Kiwanuka).

AA: If you are the Braves would you rather sign Donaldson for 3 years or trade something like Fried and Wright for Kris Bryant?
Keith Law: I’m a big Fried booster so if that’s the requirement, I’d probably pay Donaldson. If they could trade Wright and two other pitchers below Fried, sure.

Jon V : What’s your view on Oscar Mercado? Can he take another step forward next year or was this year a peak performance type year? How about another reclamation project in Daniel Johnson? Indians seem to have quantity but maybe not quality in the OF
Keith Law: Mercado’s a starter in the long run, IMO, while I think Johnson is a fourth outfielder or platoon guy.

Jay: Any thoughts on why the Yankees didn’t give Didi a QO? Seemed strange he didn’t get one, and I feel like I’m missing something.
Keith Law: Same. Didn’t understand that at all.
Keith Law: Like, if he takes it, so what – isn’t one year of a healthy Gregorius at that salary a valuable commodity in trade?

BuccoFan: You worked with Tony LaCava in Toronto. Would he be a good fit as the Pirates GM? A lot rumors about him in the media
Keith Law: Yes, he absolutely would.

Dave: Your piece on the minor league realignment proposal indicated that you were (at least) sympathetic to the idea that the overall population size of the minor leagues is currently too large. From a baseball standpoint, do you have a sense of your ideal minor league population size (and, how that compares to now)? Clearly you’d want a population large enough to occasionally hit on ‘diamonds-in-the-rough’ or late bloomers, but not so large that (for instance) I’m pitching to your elite hitting prospects; but I don’t know how to go about figuring that out.
Keith Law: I don’t have a specific league/system size in mind, other than believing the current system is too large … we don’t need the Appy/Pioneer Level at all, although I think the Rockies should be mandated to add an AZL team in that case. I’d be fine with losing that level and having every MLB org have seven teams: DSL, complex, short-season, A, A+, AA, AAA. But I think some minor league contraction would also be a function of changing demographics and market sizes. Not every town with a team is capable of supporting that team at a financially sustainable level.

greg: what was your major in school and did you know what you were doing when you went in?
Keith Law: I started out as a government major (like political philosophy), switched to a joint sociology/economics major in my third semester, and I would say I still don’t actually know what I’m doing.

Noah: You know that Emmet is Hebrew for “truth”, right?
Keith Law: I did not know that, since I speak no Hebrew at all. Thanks.

Chuck: Is Tork going #1 or do the Tigers load up on pitching with Hancock?
Keith Law: You left out option C, which might be Austin Martin, or perhaps another candidate like JT Ginn if the changeup he’s flashed in the fall is still there when he starts.

Dave: As a relatively new subscriber, I’m enjoying the newsletter so far. Have you considered a section on what you’ve been cooking lately (specific dish, ingredient, technique)? I tend to enjoy your culinary content!
Keith Law: Good idea, thank you.

Morris: My parents never hit me, and I turned out fine
Keith Law: Funny how we don’t hear that line – it’s always the people who were spanked or otherwise received corporal punishment who insist they’re okay.

Zach D: So republicans don’t like the AZ election results because a democrat won when AZ is a “conservative State” because metro areas rule the elections. I can’t keep up with their nonsense anymore.
Keith Law: Vote them all out. There is no other solution; if they think this strategy keeps them in office, they will continue to pursue it. That’s only rational.

Scott: Austin Riley had an odd year. What do you ultimately see as his big league role?
Keith Law: Extra guy.

Jacob Z: What do you think is a good path to get into the industry? Is it really Ivy league/big name school or bust?
Keith Law: Data science. That’s where the jobs are.

Chuck: Does Josiah Gray make double digit starts for LA next year?
Keith Law: How about 2021 for that?

Sok: How egregious is it that Larry Walker is on his 10th HOF ballot? Guy was an absolute stud
Keith Law: I will vote for him; I think he’s deserving. Decent shot since it’s his last year and we did clear a few names last offseason. I have pondered my ballot and there’s a nonzero chance I’ll leave at least one spot blank. There are about eight definites, and then it falls off into borderline guys.

Sam: If you were the Yankees, would you rather give Cole a deal in the 7yr/$245M (35M/yr) range or give Wheeler and Odorizzi each a 4 year deal with a combined annual value of 35M/yr?
Keith Law: Cole. I mean, option 2 isn’t bad, but I think they need the frontline guy for the regular season AND postseason.

Vandal Cunningham: The Braves are allegedly prioritizing a front-line starter, but they’ll surely be out on Cole / Stras, and Bumgarner doesn’t fall into that category. Who can they realistically target? Is Syndergaard an option?
Keith Law: They’re well-positioned to acquire someone in trade rather than free agency (can’t imagine Liberty letting them go get one of those top SP).

Sam: As a Mets fan, am I crazy for wanting them to sign Gregorius and move McNeil to 3B and Rosario to 2B?
Keith Law: No. The one downside I would see is that you might stop Rosario’s development at SS – he was much better in the second half, and I think he can do it long-term.

Ira: Should the MLB have a spending floor to force teams to at least pretend to be competitive while also not letting them take advantage by collecting revenue sharing w/o spending money?
Keith Law: I don’t like the straight salary floor idea, which would provide incentive for teams to pay for veterans who aren’t necessarily any better than the younger players they’d be replacing. I would prefer a system that says, “OK, you can field whatever team you want, but if your total payroll for this year falls below $FLOOR, you pay the rest into a union fund that the PA would distribute to unsigned free agents.” That would solve the problem of teams just pocketing shared revenue without asking anyone to field a worse team just to spend more money.

Roger: Can’t too much go wrong with young pitching for the Red Sox to be like, “Ian Anderson is the main piece for Betts.” Wouldn’t they be better off getting Waters, if not Pache?
Keith Law: If your question is just position player vs pitcher, then yes, better to get the position player, all else being equal. In this case, the Red Sox have a more acute need for starting pitching than anything else, though.

Josh G.: current book you are reading? side note: how many books do you read at a time?
Keith Law: Usually one book/ebook and one audiobook at a time. I’m reading Mary Robinette Kowal’s The Calculating Stars and listening to Safiya Noble’s Algorithms of Oppression.
Keith Law: I think my next read will be The Cloven, the last book of the Vorrh trilogy.

Connor: You wrote “inconsistent arm swing” in George Kirby’s writeup in the top 100 draft prospects. Is that something that, if unaddressed/unchanged, you think will negatively affect his command?
Keith Law: Yes, that is the #1 concern with an inconsistent delivery.

Zach D: How is releasing a whistler blowers name not illegal? And now republicans plan to subpoena the individual in a public hearing. What a s-show
Keith Law: This is the world we chose in 2016.

Jeff: Just a Reds fan, reading an old Klaw article from 2012 with my “Insider” account. “Votto’s 10-year contract might look good for the next four or five seasons, but the deal threatens to be an albatross around the neck of a low-payroll team in a market that might generously be called middle of the pack“
Keith Law: I don’t even remember saying that, so thank you.

Millennium Sports: Hearing LHP Dan Tillo is up to 98 with a wipeout slider for Team USA. He a DUDE for you?
Keith Law: Wrote about him after seeing him in the AFL, where he was throwing harder than I’d ever seen (not 98, IIRC).

Eric: How sad that Bill Gates is so worried he may have to live on $8 billion dollars vs. $108 billion if Elizabeth Warren is elected, right?!
Keith Law: The struggle is real, my friends.

Matthew : Does caffeine help with memory and studying?
Keith Law: I sure hope so!

Josh G.: when is the next periscope happening?
Keith Law: I do not schedule those … it’s a matter of having the time, and the quiet around here.

Max: The Astros should be all over Jon Gray, right?
Keith Law: Did I suggest that last week? I feel like I did.

Geraldo: I have the flu and feel like crap. Tell me something good about the Giants to temporarily relieve my pain.
Keith Law: I have a lot of trust in Farhan to modernize this org and get them moving forward again.

Dan W.: Any thoughts on what happened at Deadspin and/or on the next best way forward for those of us who relied on it?
Keith Law: Follow those writers to their new spots, and read what they write. Also, pay for some content, somewhere. You probably pay for mine if you’re here, and I appreciate that. I pay for the Athletic, Baseball America, the Washington Post, and the New Yorker, plus a cooking magazine or two (Bon Appetit, at the moment). I want to support writers i like, and to support good journalism, period. The best way to do that is with my wallet.

Ryan: How is Wingspan as a 2 player game? My wife and I love Azul, which has been our first real venture into boards, so I’m wondering if Wingspan is worth the purchase or if I should go for 7W Duel instead, thanks for all your work!
Keith Law: Wingspan works well with 2, but 7WD is ‘optimized’ for two-player.

Portmantotebag: Can you give a Tigers fan any hope?
Keith Law: There’s some pitching coming.

OC Joe: Did you have any reaction to MLB’s proposal of a free agent multi-year deadline this winter, which would have come…I believe sometime in mid-December?
Keith Law: The dumbest fucking idea of the year … in a year of some DFIs. Teams would just refrain from offering multi-year deals till after the deadline.

Dave: Scale of 1-10, what’s your excitement for Rise of Skywalker?
Keith Law: 3 or 4.

GF: is there a way to view all the articles you have written over at espn? i just subscribed to espn+ and would like to do some reading of yours but i can’t find a way to view prior posts
Keith Law: There is not an easy way to do that. I’m sorry.
Keith Law: I have asked for an index page that just lists all my pieces chronologically, but was told no.

Andy: Keith–I’m in the same boat at Chris P from last week’s chat. I would much rather read your top 50 FA list than, eg, someone’s who was repeatedly fired for unethical behaviour and doesn’t believe in using evidence. If you don’t jump elsewhere, eg The Athletic, and re-up with ESPN can you please negotiate to be able to send subscription-fee newsletter your Insider content to foreigners?
Keith Law: I am sorry about this as well.

Brian: Keith, we know the idea of “momentum” is bunk in baseball. I know you’re not a huge fan of other sports, but do you think it’s possible that it has an effect on the outcomes of games in other sports, or does the data suggest it’s total nonsense?
Keith Law: I would insist on seeing evidence before believing it is anything other than woo.

TomBruno23: It’s me again saying thanks once more for the book recs…blew through The Queen this week. What a crazy, crazy story interwoven with US Social Welfare Policy.
Keith Law: So, so good. Also, congrats to Tom Baxter, who won our giveaway of a signed copy of The Queen, provided by Josh Levin & his publisher.

Sam: Can you please explain why you ranked wheeler over bumgarner? Virtually the same age, wheelers injuries have been more prevalent and baseball related than madbums and the actual performance year over year favors madbum? Madbum seems like a much safer investment than wheeler.
Keith Law: Wheeler is way better right now. He had ~5 mph more on his FB, was worth about 1.5 more WAR last year, started more games and threw a lot more innings the last two years. I don’t think this is even a little controversial.

Dave: Just for general knowledge, the Ryan Thibs tracker is live https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!17003&ithin…
Keith Law: Excellent, great resource. I always make sure Ryan has my ballot.

Jose: Where do you have Nick Neidert’s ceiling at?
Keith Law: Fourth starter.

RAWagman: If the launch angle revolution is not largely a function of the juiced ball, what impact does that have on the importance of fielders? Thanks, and good luck with the new book
Keith Law: Doesn’t it make them more important? Balls are being hit harder, and more frequently as line drives.

Linus: During the writing of your new book- how much did you interview researchers, or were you primarily reliant on their publications?
Keith Law: My interviews were with baseball people. I exchanged emails with a few researchers – I can think of two immediately – but largely relied on their published papers so that interested readers could follow up and read them if so inclined.

TomBruno23: Your “this tweet just won the 1985 NL MVP” tweet made me smile. Talked with Dave Parker at a card show in STL several years ago and made a point to bring that voting up. “I’ve read where you think you’d be the HOF if Willie McGee hadn’t stolen your 1985 NL MVP.” “Yeah, that’s right. Where you at, McGee?” as he’s mock looking around the room.
Keith Law: I’m not sure if that gets him in the Hall, but it wouldn’t have hurt his case, at least.

TestaDuda: It’s not my money, but doing the math based on known revenue streams and free agent variables and it seems like the Red Sox should be going for it all this year and then trying to get under the tax AFTER 2020. If free agency of Betts, JDM (opt out) and JBJ aren’t enough, Price and Sale have chances to prove health (reducing underwriting on a trade) plus a new CBA all seem to make sliding under more conducive after 2020. Agree?
Keith Law: Here’s my counter to that: Who pitches? Price isn’t 100%, Sale isn’t 100%. Eovaldi wasn’t good. They have one decent, healthy starter right now, and nobody coming out of the system to help them. If they keep Betts, can they build a contending rotation through trades and free agency?

xxx(yyy): bottom of the 9th, 1 run lead in Game 7 of the World Series…do you prefer the best starting pitcher in baseball to come in for 1 inning (say G Cole? Scherzer?) or the best “relief” pitcher to come in for 1 inning (say J Hader) to close it out? Why?
Keith Law: Would depend on matchups (if you have LHB coming up, you want Hader) and how much rest everyone has had.

Ben: Do you think Carter Kieboom could be an every day starter next year?
Keith Law: At 2b, I’d say a strong possibility. I don’t see where else he could reasonably play.

Eric: At early look of the HOF ballot, I think a good ballot would be: Bonds, Clemens, Jeter, Rolen, Sheffield, Walker, Andruw, Helton, Manny
Keith Law: That’s not a bad ballot at all. You do have some of the borderline guys I struggle with, though.

Austin L.: also, favorite baseball book ever?
Keith Law: Lords of the Realm is pretty great, if dated now.
Keith Law: If you want something recent, Alex Speier’s Homegrown was a great picture of how the Red Sox built the 2018 team, with a lot of inside information from their scouts & player development folks.

scott: when does your espn contract expire?
Keith Law: In (checks calendar) 54 days.

Connor: Keith, any tips for pizza dough? Mine frequently comes out a little to dense for my liking
Keith Law: Dense sounds like you’re overworking it a bit. Also would check your hydration levels.

Rob: Thoughts on the new Opeth album? And are you listening in Swedish or English?
Keith Law: English, and I was very disappointed after the first track. Too proggy without the metal.

thatssotaguchi : A loud segment of the St. Louis Cardinals fan base is appalled that Mozeliak was just extended. Good move for the team or nah?
Keith Law: Yes, good move. Mozeliak has done a very good job, as has Girsch. I didn’t get the Shildt extension after we all just saw him playing Candyland and making Snitker & Martinez look like they were playing Gloomhaven.

Bruce: Will the Reds move Nick Senzel to second base?
Keith Law: I’d like to see that; I don’t think CF is a great fit for him, although I worry 2b isn’t going to do anything to keep him off the IL.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you all as always for reading, and for all of your questions. I’ll be back next week for another Klawchat and hope to start my annual offseason dish posts (top 100 games, cooking posts, etc.) next week. Enjoy the long weekend!

My second book, The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves, will be out on April 21, 2020. You can pre-order it now on HarperCollins’ site.

I ranked the top 25 board games of the 2010s for Paste this week, and also wrote about some recent programming games, where players issue instructions as if they were writing code, over at Ars Technica.

Keith Law: Conquering the worm. Klawchat.

Joe Torre: No question…I just wanted to say Thank You to Anthony Rendon for bailing us out in Game 6
Keith Law: The umps got it right, though. The rule is pretty clear, and while it’s seldom invoked, the call on the field was correct – and not reviewable.

DF: Is the Pirates offense being held back by bad drafting or bad development? Picking guys with good bat to ball skills in the swing change era feels like to right approach to me, but it isn’t translating to the power numbers other teams are generating.
Keith Law: I think they had a development approach that gave up power for contact, but changed that last year.

Lee D, LA: Keith — Dodgers better off spending $200M+ on Cole than Rendon, right?
Keith Law: Not sure I agree – or disagree. Both would help.

Andy: To anyone who is happy about Deadspin dying: Do you work a job where a new boss came in, made a ton of changes that made the job less fun, less personal, and less profitable? Did you and your co-workers loudly complain about it, but ultimately did nothing? Well the writers of Deadspin didn’t. They left. It’s possible (even likely) to not agree with all the sites/writers decisions, and mourn the loss of a vibrant community somewhat related to sports.
Keith Law: Very well said. I wouldn’t say I liked all their content, or all of their writers, even. That is far from saying I don’t support them, or rue the absence of a site that revels in anti-authoritarian viewpoints.

Brian: Is the 2nd half of 2020 a realistic time frame to start seeing Lynch, Singer & Kowar brought up to the Royals or is 2021 more likely?
Keith Law: I expect them all to see the majors in 2020 if healthy.

TomBruno23: What should I tell my Royals friends who apoplectic with rage at the hiring of The Leader of Men?
Keith Law: … except that I’m not sure I want one of the worst tactical managers of the last decade doing anything with those young pitchers.

Tribe called jest: Better long term offensive profile, Abrams or Royce Lewis?
Keith Law: Lewis. But Abrams has more chance to play short.

Andy: I hope there’s a chapter in your next book about how teams make bad decisions based on interviews, instead of looking at the track record. I mean seriously, who can look at Matheny’s time at the Cardinals and think, that’s the guy who should be managing a young team?
Keith Law: Or any team, really. This is *such* a retrograde decision, and I think it’ll hold the Royals back for a while.

Karma1 Astros 0: Any chance for George Kirby to be more than a 4-5 starter?
Keith Law: Yes.

Lone Star: Higher on Jung or Baty at the plate? I know Jung is a better bet at defensive value.
Keith Law: Baty. I don’t agree with that on Jung; both may end up at 1b.

Sam: How does Cole not get in the game last night? There were multiple high leverage spots they could have used him and saving him for the lead also made no sense. Is there anything to the argument you want him to start an inning clean and not bring him in middle inning with runners on?
Keith Law: This to me is the only thing Hinch did wrong last night. Cole should have been in the game sooner. But ultimately the failing was on the players; Harris is a great reliever and didn’t execute. (Also, Kendrick hit a pretty good pitch.) Harris gets that additional out and we’re not having this conversation.

Devon: True or False: the best part of the World Series was Trump and friends getting booed?
Keith Law: False. Although I think it’s perfectly fine that he was booed. The civility pearl-clutchers really lost their moral high ground when Trump mocked a disabled reporter.

Concerned Fan: What can MLB really do to the Astros about their pretty clear and brazen negative culture in their front office? Obviously they could dock them draft picks or apply some other punitive penalty, but how do you actually *fix* that?
Keith Law: I can’t agree with the premise – we don’t really know about their culture; I think you’re inferring something that might be true and it might not – but *IF* the culture is negative and pervasive, you target the people at the top who created and/or tolerated it.

Bruce: I’m a lover of non-fiction and have recently read a couple of books you reviewed including Bad Blood and Amity and Prosperity. Both were great – can you recommend any others that you enjoyed?
Keith Law: Just recently: Billion-Dollar Whale, The Queen, The Drunkard’s Walk, The Rise & Fall of the Dinosaurs, Big Chicken.

Bruce: Josh Hader for Corey Seager?
Keith Law: I would not trade Seager, a potential 7-WAR everyday player, for any reliever.

Braves: What do you think the Braves rotation looks like by mid-next year? Only three guys I feel (somewhat) confident in are Soroka, Fried, and Folty, but each have some red flags. Apparently Newcomb wants to try starting again, but where do you they the additional 2-3 starters they’ll need to get through the year come from?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t mind seeing them add an innings guy to back up that group, which could also include Touki or Wright or Wilson at some point.

Dr. Bob: I don’t believe in Karma so the Nats win was not caused by Houston’s Taubman fiasco. But I have to admit to a little schadenfreude over the whole thing.
Keith Law: Agreed. The team that traded for Osuna, then proclaimed a “zero tolerance” policy on domestic violence, then taunted a reporter who took a strong, principled stand on the matter, lost, and the pitcher who recorded the last out for the other team is a two-time TJ recipient who was criticized for leaving the team to go attend to the birth of his child. Sometimes the story just works out.

Greg P: Klaw – will the balls be switching back to 2018 levels next year? Does MLB have any idea what their balls are doing?
Keith Law: So, we’re just not doing phrasing any more?
Keith Law: I get the sense MLB wants to restore the baseball’s physical characteristics to pre-2019 levels.

Steve: Have you read Poz’s Houdini book yet? Picked it up this week and it’s riveting so far.
Keith Law: Yes, tore through it in about four days. Really enjoyed it – but I just happen to really like Joe’s writing, too.

The Pirate Parrot: Meadows, Glasnow, and Baz for Archer? Who says no? ???
Keith Law: No takebacks!

Epsthoyet: Do I take a chance on an import and use only cash to get Shogo Akiyama to fill a couple of holes, or do I once again deplete my farm system and trade for Merrifield? I may have a cheaper and younger Merrifield on my team already in Hoerner though, no?
Keith Law: No idea if Merrifield is even available, but I wouldn’t trade multiple prospects for him. He’s helpful, but not the solution.

Nelson: Strasburg can do better than 4/100 on the market this winter, right?
Keith Law: Yes.

JR: Cole going to be well rested for opening day for his new team. Kidding aside, do you think Cole told the coaches he didn’t have it, or did AJ mess this up?
Keith Law: I did wonder if Cole said he couldn’t go – or even declined to pitch – and Hinch is covering for his guy. No idea, though.

Frank: We know the Giants are going to give bumgardner a QO. If you are them would you give one to Will Smith as well?
Keith Law: Probably not, but Smith is pretty good as relievers go. Just not sure he’s worth the QO salary.

Pat D: How much did this World Series increase the likelihood of robo-umps in the near future?
Keith Law: I hope by 1000%.

Mike: Will JD opt out?
Keith Law: I’m assuming yes.

Eric: Who’s reading the audio version of the new book?
Keith Law: Don’t know yet. I think we decided that in January last time around?

jack: I want to get into reading novels… any first suggestions?
Keith Law: Depends on what you like. I really got into reading in high school with science fiction, especially Asimov’s Foundation novels. They just spoke to me, but they might not speak to you. I imagine there’s a whole generation of readers out there who fell in love with books through Harry Potter.

Mike: With Brandon Marsh having a great fall league, where is he looking to be at in the Top 100?
Keith Law: Fall league performances don’t affect my rankings. He was already on the top 100, FYI.

XyXyX: What do you do this offseason if you are Texas? Houston is still a monster, they’ve got some interesting young players but they all have big questions, and the farm system is just so-so. Do you spend big this offseason with a new park opening up and try to build on a surprising 2019, or do you punt 2020 and look to contend again in 2021 or beyond?
Keith Law: Can’t imagine them punting, but I don’t think they can spend their way to contention in one offseason. Would imagine they’d make one big splash, to try to be more competitive in 2020, while also trying to build.

Mike: Weird question: need a good iPhone case — suggestions??
Keith Law: Not weird at all. I have an inexpensive case from tech21 that has protected my phone many times, plus a ZAGG screen protector (lifetime warranty, and I have absolutely used that feature).

HH: For those of us who will miss baseball until February: the Australian Baseball League is a nascent league with their season during US winters. They stream most games on youtube and it’s awesome to watch a league grow up before your eyes. Highly recommended (and I’m just a fan.)
Keith Law: Very true. Some MLB teams have sent prospects or fringe guys there to get them more playing time.

Raul: Obvs Cole and Stras make sense for the Padres. But so do Wheeler and Odorizzi. Do those types of arms push San Diego into WC contention if signed?
Keith Law: It’s all “yes if” for them. If Tatis Jr plays a full season, if Urias hits like he did throughout the minors, if one of their existing young starters takes a step forward, then they’re a player or two away from 90+ wins.

Zach D: So this is an overly simplified question, but which situation is better for manager – Mets or Phillies. (Roster, payroll, farm, ownership. Not media or family factors)
Keith Law: Philly.

Jon Coleman: You like the Bloom hire for Boston? How extreme do you think the makeover will be?
Keith Law: Love the hire. He’ll be great. I expect small changes at first, and never a big makeover.

Wamco: I cannot understand why people seem to hate Bryce Harper so much….why do you think that is?
Keith Law: I think because he was so good so young, and was kind of unapologetic about it. And now because he makes so much money. Those are not good reasons.

HeHateMeTeam: Do you ever get irritated about how intense people react to your opinions and preferences? Whether it’s your disinterest in The Sopranos or your preference for toolsy, high-ceiling prospects affecting minor differences in your rankings, people seem to go nuts over subjective topics.
Keith Law: Irritated is probably not the right word; flummoxed, maybe. Note that this almost never happens in person, though – it’s only online.

Paul: The Giants’ managerial search is “focused on” Joe Espada, Gabe Kapler, and Pedro Grifol (source: https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/giants/sources-giants-down-three-can…). Who gets your vote?
Keith Law: Big Kapler fan. He was the scapegoat in Philly, and definitely not the reason the team didn’t get to the playoffs this year. Has strong developmental experience too, which is a good fit for the Giants going forward.

E: Almost through Why We Sleep based on your recommendation. Love it. I feel like it should be required reading for every high school student in the country.
Keith Law: And every school administrator who thinks a 7:25 am start time for high school is appropriate.

Carl c: You hinted for weeks that you were reading The Unbearable Lightness of Being, but I never saw the review
Keith Law: Right here.

Bob Pollard: Unanswerable question perhaps, but assuming the Happy Fun Ball goes away, how do we even evaluate players like Soler, Schwarber, Garver, etc., moving forward? Are breakouts legit or do we have to look at them with a blanket skepticism?
Keith Law: I feel better about guys who we know had power, like the first two, than the guys who could hit and suddenly developed power, like Garver.

Raul: Half of Padres land is upset that Tingler, an unknown, was brought in instead of a “proven” guy like Washington, and that Preller is crazy considering ownership is seemingly getting impatient. My thought process is if you’re gonna lose your job, may as well go with the guy who best fits what you’re looking for instead of a name manager, right?
Keith Law: I’m a big Tingler fan, both from having met him and from his resume with Texas. Fans who don’t like a managerial hire who’s “unknown” are making a simple mistake: Just because YOU don’t know who the guy is doesn’t mean the industry doesn’t know who he is.

Jesse B : Are the WhiteSox close enough that if they grabbed Gerritt Cole they could make a playoff run this year, or are they a year away from making moves like that, ala the Cubs?
Keith Law: I think Cole or Strasburg to the White Sox would make them fringe contenders.

Brint: When do you think Spencer Howard joins the Phillies’ rotation full-time?
Keith Law: If healthy, by end of summer.

Jay: Do you think Kingery’s strong year will lead to regular playing time for a 20/20 in 2020? Pun most definitely intended
Keith Law: He has the speed for the SBs but I’ve had a hard time seeing how he’d get to 20 HR in the majors (Happy Fun Ball aside).

Brett: If you were running a front office, what effect (if any) would MLB’s ball shenanigans have on your roster/FA planning this year.
Keith Law: I’d just be wary of assuming any HR spikes from 2019 were real, and ask my R&D guys to make sure any projections accounted for this uncertainty. Also, I’d consider looking at pitchers who may have been inordinately hurt by the altered baseball – slider guys whose sliders backed up, for example.

Alex: I enjoyed your paste article on board games! Was wondering if you saw the list on greatest novels of the 2010s. What did you think? The Goldfinch was a bit high for me
Keith Law: Looking now, that’s a great list. Lincoln in the Bardo would be a contender for #1. Swamplandia! was just not that good. Station Eleven is amazing. I’ve read 7 of the top 10, then I taper off. The Night Circus is also too high. Swing Time and Americanah seem like they’re placed where they are because of who wrote them, not because they were that good. Biggest omission for me is In the Light of What We Know. I’d also throw All the Light We Cannot See and An Unkindness of Ghosts on there too.

Matt: But what happens if the owner is the one that created/tolerated that behavior? You can’t just Donald Sterling every owner that’s a prick.
Keith Law: No, but there are more remedies than just firing someone/forcing an owner to sell.

Bill: Odds we see Mackenzie Gore in the rotation midseason next year?
Keith Law: Nonzero, below 50/50.

Eric: Any consolation to be found for Braves fans today? They were a better team than the Nats all year, only to blow it vs. a pretty beatable Cardinals team in the NLDS. Every NLE team has won a pennant since they last won a WS game, and thrice now they’ve seen a team they finished ahead of in the standings go on to win the series as a wild card.
Keith Law: Nats were much better built for October, though: strong front 3 in the rotation, more patient heart of the lineup. Could see Atlanta getting there if Soroka stays healthy, Fried keeps growing as a pitcher, and one of Touki/Wright/Anderson/Wilson hits their ceiling.

Matt: In your video chat the other day, you mentioned that Carlson probably won’t see MLB in 2020 because he is only 20 yo and finished year in AA. In fact, he’s 21 and finished season in AAA. Not trying to “well actually” you, just curious if that changes his ETA for you at all?
Keith Law: He played at 20 all season; he only turned 21 last week. I use seasonal ages when discussing players. And he played all of 18 games in AAA, which, while I should have acknowledged it, is a drop in the ocean.

Andy: Despite the FO saying otherwise, seems like Cleveland will listen on Lindor. At this point do you agree with some patch that splits the middle, trying to keep competitive? Or should they just go full-on rebuild?
Keith Law: They should explore trading him now, while his value might be at a peak. Could sustain the franchise for multiple years if you make the right trade.

Buctober: Obviously accounting for your personal connection to with, curious what about Tony LaCava’s skill set would or wouldn’t make him a good GM for the Pirates now.
Keith Law: It’s a bit glib, but the two things that most sunk the Pirates recently were poor returns on trades and position players failing to develop as expected. Lacava certainly has strength in the latter, given his long player development experience. The former could be scouting, analytics, decision-making structure, or some of all of those things; I would say Tony is strongest in the third, also has long experience with the first, and showed real affinity for using analytical tools back when I worked with him in the mid-2000s.
Keith Law: I’m always wary of over-endorsing people I know well, and he was a mentor to me in Toronto, so I absolutely have a conflict when discussing him … but the Pirates would be terribly remiss if they didn’t at least interview him for the position.

Andrew: Any names to look out for in the upcoming Rule 5 draft?
Keith Law: Those rosters won’t be set for three more weeks.

Matt: What is the players union going to do about younger players not getting paid? Aaron Judge can be the face of MLB for 5 years and by the time he faces FA, no team offers him a long term deal because of his age.
Keith Law: Raising the minimum salary or adding salary arbitration for 2+ players (not just super-2 guys) would help.

Dax: Could Mike Montgomery put in a solid year as a starter in KC next year? Probably helps that he’ll no longer bounce back and forth between being a starter and a reliever.
Keith Law: I still think he’s best cast as a long relief guy.

Sean: Regarding your new book, based on the title alone I’m expecting some good analysis of, and references to the psychology of decision making. Can you shed any light on how in depth that gets? Can’t wait to read it.
Keith Law: That’s the idea, focusing on cognitive biases and illusions rather than, say, the neuroscience of decision-making. I rely a lot on popular and scholarly literature on these biases, describing how they were first identified and explaining them in lay terms. I love Thinking Fast and Slow, but that’s not a book for everybody.

JP: it appears the Red Sox did not interview a minority candidate before hiring their new Chief Baseball Officer. will MLB do anything about that?
Keith Law: There is no firm rule like the NFL has. Did they interview anyone else? I never heard another name, just that they interviewed Bloom and hired him.

Michael: Do you have any links to pieces or stories criticizing Hudson for missing game 1 of the NLCS? All I have read/heard is responses to criticism but I haven’t read any actual stories of criticism.
Keith Law: I linked to one two Saturdays ago here on the dish.

Michael: New place for your SD trip, Cafe Calabria (I think). Only certified Napolese pizza maker in SD and it rivals Bianco. In North Park, just tried it Friday
Keith Law: Much appreciated, thanks.

Ryan: I’m starting to become optimistic that Ivan Herrera will actually become a major league catcher. Do I need to slow down a bit or is he legit?
Keith Law: He’s interesting. And they sure do know how to make catchers over there.

Jordan: What did you think of Cole saying he’s not an employee of the Astros anymore and wearing a Boras Corp hat during his press conference? S
Keith Law: ?

Todd: Peter Luger’s Brooklyn got slammed in a new review. What say you?
Keith Law: I’ve never been, and since I don’t eat beef, I never will. Also, who the fuck doesn’t accept credit cards in 2019?

Zach D: Re: Astros Karma. Don’t forget blocking access for a Detroit reporter trying to do their job.
Keith Law: That never seemed to get any public resolution, but I hope MLB (and the BBWAA) don’t just drop that.

Johnny: Recent J2 classes have been producing super stars like Tatis, Soto, Vlad and more on the way like Wander, Robert, Kristian, Julio…etc. Has scouting gotten much better in recent years where top rated J2 players are converting into major leaguers? How early do you peg top prospects status on players from these classes?
Keith Law: Players in general are becoming highly productive big leaguers younger than in the past … but it’s just the guys at the top of the J2 classes, right? It’s not throughout those groups, but the stars who emerge faster. And I do think some of that is just better training, nutrition, etc. from trainers in the major countries that produce players.
Keith Law: I saw Erick Pena (KC) earlier this month. He’s 16, and while he has the baby face you’d expect, that is some kind of build on a kid that young.

Harry: When does the KLT100 drop this year?
Keith Law: I assume around February 1st. Not entirely my call.

Matt: At what point does the GOP stop attacking the impeachment process and start addressing the facts? Never?
Keith Law: Never.

Paul: Final half season of Bojack Horseman – Yay or neigh…
Keith Law: Never seen it. I did enjoy S1 of Big Mouth – just waiting for my girlfriend to catch up before we start S2 (and so I can discuss my favorite line with her).

Michael: Why don’t the Deadspin folk just start their own website and own it? Is it that expensive to do that it would be cost prohibitive?
Keith Law: It requires capital that most people don’t just have lying around.

Grover: Did it feel like people were really trying to will the “Bryce Harper must be so bitter/mad/jealous right now!” thing into existence the last week or two? Isn’t it possible he’s genuinely happy for his former teammates, and also fine with the decision he made last winter?
Keith Law: I’m sorry, that take is way too mature and tepid for online discourse. Please put your traybake back in the oven for another ten minutes and try again.

John Zirinsky: Keith: Would you give 8 years/$300 million to Cole if you felt like he was the one missing piece, or do you think spreading that around is a better play?
Keith Law: I would. He’s a difference-maker.

Jon: Did you get to see Forrest Whitley at all in the AFL? Any thoughts on what realistic expectations should be for him next season and beyond?
Keith Law: Yes, I led my AFL post with him. Stuff was all still there.

Ridley: Thank you for not sticking to baseball. FWIW, I’m excited about the new book and of the opinion that having all of these other interests makes all your writing, even the strictly baseball stuff, more interesting.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I do hope this book opens more possibilities for me to write about non-sportsball topics (well, aside from board games).

Sedona: i would love to hear you on a fantasy baseball podcast!! Some of your industry colleagues participate. Will you consider it?
Keith Law: I don’t play fantasy sports and haven’t for almost 20 years now, so, no, probably not.

John: Odorizzi QO seems like a no brainer. Will anyone sign him away from the Twins if he gets it?
Keith Law: Yes. They absolutely should offer.

Bruce: Yasmani Grandal was fantastic for the Brewers last year but will be 31 years old next season. Is he worth a 3-4 year contract at that age and will he get one?
Keith Law: The gap between the industry view of him and the online community’s (stat-based, especially framing-based) view of him is wider than it is on any other free agent, I think.

Al: I have heard of why we sleep. From what author however, there are several similar titles. Thanks
Keith Law: Matthew Walker. Reviewed it here.

Arnold: Did this World Series validate the importance of starting pitching over what seemed to be a growing preference for strong bullpens and openers?
Keith Law: It helped the cause of the starter, rather than validating it or disproving the alternative.

Zach D: School start time. Isn’t the rationale that school has to start somewhat around the time that adults start work? If school doesn’t start until 9am, and I have to leave my house at 7am for work. Then I need 2hrs of day care each morning to get my kid on the bus?
Keith Law: We’re talking about teenagers, whose circadian rhythms run later than those of younger kids or adults.

Anchen: How does this year’s free agent crop compare to last year? Machado/Harper/Corbin vs Strasburg/Cole/Rendon. Probably would go with last year mostly because of age of the two main stars but this year looks pretty strong as well.
Keith Law: I think it’s a little deeper past the top three this year than last.

Chris P: ESPN cut off my access to Insider earlier this year and I can’t reactivate it because I’m in Canada. It’s really going to suck the most in February when I can’t read your prospect lists, even though I want to give the company money just for that. I don’t have a question, just hoping you can let your bosses know that they are missing out on international reader’s money.
Keith Law: They’re aware, but I don’t think there’s a solution in sight. I’m sorry.

Brent: What do you like about Kapler? Phillies fans were almost all happy to see him gone. Over the top positivity, not holding players accountable, horrendous game day decisions. Girardi isn’t an upgrade? Find that hard to believe.
Keith Law: Wait, positivity is bad? Only in Philly.
Keith Law: The not holding players accountable thing is nonsense, BTW. That feels like a take distilled through the dirty filter of sports radio.

Frank: Is Marco Luciano a GUY or to early to tell?
Keith Law: He’s a prospect. Too early to juice him like, say, Wander at that age.

Harry: Alex Rodriguez made a comment do Juan Soto post game “are you sure youre 21, can I see some ID, hahaha” A joke, but one in poor taste IMO. Any pushback?
Keith Law: I’m surprised that A-Rod didn’t ask Martinez about how valuable it was to have a lead that was an even number.

Pat D: On a scale of 1-14, how shocked are you that Republicans are still whining about the “process” after today’s vote? Gotta be a negative number, right?
Keith Law: Yep.
Keith Law: Y I K E S.

Erik: movies on your docket to see before “awards season” I always appreciate your reviews
Keith Law: Short term: The Lighthouse, Parasite (I couldn’t swing it this week), Dolemite is My Name, Frankie, The Irishman, The Laundromat (I hear it’s not good, I’ll probably still watch it). More coming the next few weeks though.

Ryan: Hi Keith, you seem to be fairly high on Kapler as a managerial candidate. I am curious if his handling of abuse allegations in the minor leagues from 2015 would concern you at all if you were a member of an organization considering hiring him. Im sure you probably know more about that situation than I do, so wanted to get your thoughts on Kapler’s past and how I should view him from someone whose opinions I respect greatly and generally align with my values.
Keith Law: The public story on that is simply false. He didn’t cover anything up; from talking to multiple people involved, including Kapler, it sounds like he handled it appropriately, and the subsequent accusations, which come from an employee the Dodgers fired, are not accurate. If this were a story, I’d write it, and certainly wouldn’t support a candidate who’d mishandled such cases. I believe I have the facts, however, and that just isn’t what happened.

Chris: So, I pre-ordered the Kindle version of the book. Just curious how much of a difference the paper vs digital purchase makes to the author. Thanks!
Keith Law: Virtually none, but I appreciate you asking.

HH: Feel free to punt here, but I’ve been very curious how many copies of Smart Baseball sold and there doesn’t seem to be a good way to find out. (This is just idle curiosity, since you’re the only author I know, and I have zero sense of the scale of the book market.)
Keith Law: It would actually take me a little while to get a precise number. I do get royalty statements, which do tell me that number, but it’s not easy to get to.
Keith Law: I have to take a call right now, so I have to wrap this up. Thank you all for reading, and for all your interest in my upcoming book. My rankings of the top 50 free agents should be up for ESPN+ subscribers on Tuesday, and I’ll chat at some point shortly after that. Enjoy your weekends!

Starting at 1 pm ET. My latest board game review for Paste covers Matt Leacock’s Era: The Medieval Age, an update of his Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age that lets you build your own little fiefdom with 3D plastic buildings on a peg board.

Keith Law: Call them up, tell them about the new trends. Klawchat.

addoeh: MLB’s showcase event is going on. But instead of that, we have Brandon Taubman showing the world he is a complete ass, the Astros seeing nothing wrong with what he said, and Rob Drake itching to start a ‘cival’ war. I can’t blame Manfred is he’s shouting “what the f*ck” at no one in particular today.
Keith Law: Indeed. From a straight publicity perspective, the start of MLB’s showcase event – which features one of the best teams ever against a franchise from a city that hasn’t won a World Series since 1925 – has been a nightmare. And I won’t blame Manfred if he shouts that phrase at the Astros, who bungled the Taubman thing from the get-go. Put him on administrative leave, say you’re investigating, issue a blanket apology, and the issue withers.

Bill: Enjoyed your AFL writeup and was interested in more about Josh Lowe. Will he slow down given his size? What type of slash would you expect from him in his prime?
Keith Law: We all slow down eventually but I don’t think that’s a near-term concern for Lowe. I could see middling average, good OBP with power. Those guys were usually .250/.340/.500+ before the Happy Fun Ball.

Greg: Is Girardi a good hire for the Phils? Are am I just more relieved/thrilled they didn’t hire Dusty “Basecloggers are bad” Baker?
Keith Law: I think Girardi fits the profile of a guy who’ll be much better the second time around (technically third, but year one hardly counts). Baker would have been a fine choice for that club. The hazard they avoided was Showalter, who I think would have been a very poor fit for their current roster.

Kris: Raimfer Salinas project as an everyday player?
Keith Law: Too far away & inexperienced to put that specific a grade on him.

Rob in WI: Like you, I think it’s better if a new manager has had previous managing experience. But is the trend of someone starting in a Front Office and working into the dugout (The Counsell Method?) possibly an effective one if it streamlines the communication of the Front Office and the Clubhouse? (I have other concerns about David Ross, but I guess that’s aspect is a plus?). Thanks for the chats, Keith.
Keith Law: I think we have one successful example, Counsell, who still took a few years to develop into a competent tactical manager, and that’s nowhere near enough. And Ross wasn’t even a full-time front office person.

Greg: I sort of can’t believe it’s now an open question whether the Mets or Phillies manager position was the more attractive. I know he’s not a Wilpon and he helped land Harper, but do you see Middleton as overstepping in the managerial choices? The retread manager seems like a classic overcorrection. Maybe the Kapler hire didn’t work out, but I don’t think the overall philosophy was wrong. Just the personnel.
Keith Law: IMO, the Kapler hire worked out fine. He was fired because the pitching staff fell apart, and I don’t see how that’s his fault.

Moe Mentum: Francis Ford Coppola doesn’t like Marvel movies. Why is this a news story?
Keith Law: I really have no idea. I don’t even really care for Marvel movies, but this is definitely a “sssh … let people enjoy things” moment.

Ron: Kiriloff will be in the majors next July, next September or not at all?
Keith Law: Second half. Depends on his health and where the Twins are.

Regression to the mean: Good to see you, Gerrit, it’s been quite a while.
Keith Law: It’s hard to say from watching on TV but I thought he was overthrowing (overrotating his hips?) and it cost him command.

Ridley: I imagine you’re going to get a lot of questions like this, but that’s never stopped me before: Has there been a darker day for American democracy than yesterday?

The President’s attorney argued that the President not only can’t be prosecuted while in office; he can’t even be investigated.

Meanwhile, a gaggle of Republicans broke into a secure area brandishing cell phones, knowingly breaking the law, in an attempt to invalidate the impeachment process. This despite the fact that many of them were actually entitled to be in the hearings and that the doors were closed to non-committee members as per a rule created by John Boehner.

I’m hesitant to say we’ve reached the bottom, but I’m pretty sure we can see it from here.
Keith Law: The failure of the rest of the Republican party to condemn that little circus – led by perhaps their most embarrassing member – is the most disturbing part. Nothing matters as long as you cling to power.

Bmosc: Gut instinct on where Cole is 2020? If they strike out on him, are there any contingency plans for the Yanks that you think close the gap b/w them/Houston? Also, just announced Hicks is out 8-10 months b/c of TJ surgery. Gardner/Maybin back now or other attractcive options?
Keith Law: Still think Cole has at least as good a chance to end up with the Angels as the Yanks. Quite a few outfield options available to them if they fear Gardner’s age; would expect them to go outside for that.

Brian: Did Hinch panic a little in the 7th? The intentional walk to Soto made no sense given the situation.
Keith Law: I didn’t like the IBB but I understood him trying to get to a platoon advantage there while avoiding a high-OBP, high-damage hitter against whom they didn’t seem to have a great attack plan. He wasn’t the winning run, which to me makes it a tolerable move rather than a dangerously wrong one.

JP: better trade chip for the Mets: JD Davis or Dom Smith? Seems right now neither will have a spot in the field with Alonso taking 1B and Davis not a great glove anywhere.
Keith Law: Smith. Younger, better fielder, year seems less fluky to me.

Juwan: How much has Soto exceeded your expectations? I know that you liked him as a prospect but had him slightly below the elite tier of Tatis, Vlad jr and Acuna. Are you surprised at his ascension?
Keith Law: I am quite surprised. Way better plate discipline than he ever showed in A-ball.

T: Are you worried about the future of the sport? Between the continuing DV problems, and the more transparent-than-ever anti-labor attitudes prevailing (in terms of service time manipulation and valuing ownership profits over on-field product), and now this whole juiced/not-juiced ball…it seems like the entire sport is at a bit of a crossroads, no?
Keith Law: My worries are much more about the on-field product’s appeal and the potential that we’re pricing future fans out of the ballpark than serious but transient issues like DV (which has always been there, it just feels bigger now because these incidents make news & fans are vocal about them).

Gloria: Is there any hope for curing the misinformed Drake’s of the world? It’s one thing to not support impeachment, but a whole other to falsely believe that the GOP isn’t part of the process, it’s all being done secretly, etc. Or is there no hope b/c Fox News and GOP members themselves spew these lies?
Keith Law: From an MLB perspective, he probably needs to be given a very long time off, and required to refrain from posting on any social media.

CP: Any reason for hope of a championship in the next 20 years if you’re a Pirates fan?
Keith Law: Sure. Franchises have turned around in less than half of that time.

Timmins: What’s a realistic AAV we can expect for Cole? Will someone toss him an 8/240 type deal?
Keith Law: I think he’s getting that and maybe more. Maybe more like 6-7 years but a higher AAV. Would be shocked if he comes in under $30MM/year.

Mike: Keith, the Mets have Rosario at SS & 2 of their top prospects are SS also. Gimenez is hopefully a year or 2 away & Mauricio right behind him. Would it be prudent (insert Met joke here) to see if one of them can play OF, where there is a lack of prospects in the system? Of course it’s the Mets, so one might get moved for an overpaid reliever.
Keith Law: Gimenez just isn’t the same caliber of prospect as the other two; he’s there but not really relevant. Rosario’s second-half improvement is enough to leave him at short for the next year, at the least, and Mauricio is 2-3 years away, so you have plenty of time to let that resolve itself. If that makes Gimenez a trade piece, great. They’re already in for a few pennies on 2020.

Eric: Juan Soto should be the face of baseball for the next decade, but some dope pitcher is going to throw at him for having fun, then he’ll be ripped by “old-school” dopes and they’ll ruin our fun.
Keith Law: You know what’s weird? George Springer didn’t run that game 1 double out, and I didn’t hear broadcasters or read mainstream writers complaining about how he was ruining the sport. What’s the difference between him and Ronald Acuña or Manny Machado? No puedo identificarlo.

Rob : Any thoughts on the Padres managerial hire. At least he does have *some* managerial experience?
Keith Law: Great hire. Tingler has real managing experience and developmental experience, and that’s what the Padres need in the next two years. Green is like Kapler to me – the fans blamed him when the reality is the team wasn’t good enough to contend this year, and the manager wasn’t the reason they didn’t. Tingler seems like a great choice to shepherd the development of Tatis Jr., Urias, Gore, Patiño, etc. as the team starts to move more towards contention this year.

Tim: Is there any hope left for Corey Ray?
Keith Law: Not much, but nonzero chance.

Nate: What’s the ceiling for Eric pardinho?
Keith Law: Mid-rotation if everything works out. High floor, not high ceiling.

TP: How does eliminating 42 minor league teams help to grow the popularity of the game? I get some of the facility and travel arguments, but it seems an easier fix would be realignment and MLB teams paying for upgrades. Oh wait, maybe $ is the real issue here…
Keith Law: Nobody’s going to see most of those 42 franchises. I posted some of their attendance figures; they’re not attracting fans as it is.

Kyle: Klaw, The Mets drafted Jake Mangum last year in the 4th round. Can he be anything more than a 4th OF? The system is lacking in OF depth.
Keith Law: That’s his best case scenario for me.

Vander: Quick thoughts about Jose Israel Garcia? Has he become a guy?
Keith Law: Absolutely a GUY. Maybe their top healthy prospect right now.

hotshots1812: I know you generally prefer guys with past managing experience at some level but how do you feel about someone like Tim Bogar who has been a big league coach for ~10 years? Is an extended time as a big league coach roughly equivalent to managing a few years in the minors?
Keith Law: I don’t think I have enough data to answer that.

Jesse B : Assuming good health, is Adrian Morejon the Padres #3 behind Gore and Paddack in 2021?
Keith Law: If they try to make any kind of trade for an impact player this winter, I bet Morejon is in it.

T: Better baseball name right now than Jayce Tingler?
Keith Law: I saw Jax Biggers in the AFL.

AZ: Best 2019 movie you’ve seen so far?
Keith Law: I’ve only seen four, I think, but the good stuff is hitting theaters here now. Hoping to see Parasite Tuesday.

E: Prior to the W.S. the odds were around +195 for WAS and -220 for HOU. While Houston is the better overall team, who would bet on 2:1 odds in a 7 game series when the other team is a formidable opponent?
Keith Law: Those odds seem totally irrational to me. I’m listening to Leonard Mlodinow’s The Drunkard’s Walk right now, and he walks through this exact scenario; I think he’d agree 2:1 series odds would be bonkers.

TomBruno23: Is there a player of your youth that you thought was really good but when you look back on his sabermetrics now you think, “Well, maybe he wasn’t so good after all.”? For me it’s Vince Coleman.
Keith Law: Andre Dawson.

Maximus: Who is getting the job in Boston? I’m a Romero backer.
Keith Law: Every name I’ve heard is someone from outside the org. Jed Hoyer’s name comes up a lot. I don’t know if that’s real or just because he used to work there.

Robbie: Having been able to see prospects get their first taste of pro-ball (albeit a clear SSS), which teams would you say at this point had your top 3 ranked draft classes from this past year?
Keith Law: I would not change any answers based on such tiny samples.

Stephen: If you were Andrew Friedman, what would you do this offseason? Should the Dodgers just run it back, or actually try and chase the Yankees and Angles on Cole or go after Rendon?
Keith Law: Go for it. Team is built to win now. And accept that Kershaw isn’t what he was, which means signing Cole or Strasburg or Ryu, or trading for someone comparable.
Keith Law: I hear they want Rendon, who is a superstar, but they have a surfeit of infielders and I think they need more help in the rotation.

John: RE: Taubman… looks like the Astros might have karma against them this series.
Keith Law: I don’t believe that for a second. The Nats have just outplayed them.

Guest: If you’re Rendon, do you re-sign with the Nationals, knowing they have Turner, Soto, Robles, and the rotation, or do you maybe go somewhere else to either be the man or put a team over the hump? As a Nats fan I know what the easy answer is for me.
Keith Law: He’s taking the most money. I guarantee that, and why not? I would do the same.

Dean M: Hey Keith. I consider you as my top Scouting Dept and you helped me dominate for years. Just wanted to say thank you and keep up the great work!! Just one question… do you think Chris Sale’s best days are behind him? Or is this season just a one yr injury write off? Thanks again!!!
Keith Law: I don’t know – if he had just had elbow surgery, I’d be more comfortable saying he’ll bounce back in 2021, but now I really can’t guess.

Thomas: When it comes to positional prospects, the Tigers have nothing notable in their farm system (and nothing close to ML ready). The rebuild is probably behind schedule as a result. Should they be looking to trade someone like Faedo or Burrows for a hitting prospect or two? Or hang on for a couple years and see if the next two drafts help fill out the system.
Keith Law: Neither of those guys has enough value to get the hitting prospect you need.

Gloria: Fact or fiction? If the Pirates stayed the course and kept all of their guys (and got better coaches) they would have been contenders this year?
Keith Law: That’s two huge ifs together.

kglue: Speaking of Soto and plate discipline more generally, is there an asymmetric payoff coming into play? e.g. if you strikeout a lot but also hit a ton in the minors, you’ll get promoted with the thought, “they’ll get better at pitch recognition or plate discipline”, but that if you walk a ton and don’t show hit or power tools, you probably don’t get promoted. Kind of the old adage that no one walks their way off the island.
Keith Law: That was probably true 20 years ago, but far less so today.

Benji: Without much change in performance next year, what are your thoughts in general on George Springer as a FA next winter? Do you think his skill set will age well into his early-mid thirties or is any team likely going to regret committing to him long term?
Keith Law: Definitely the kind of player I’d project to hold value on both sides of the ball into his 30s.

Ted: What type of prospect is the pitcher from Korea who the Red Sox just signed?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen anything about them signing a Korean pitcher, sorry.

Snowy: What type of deal do you think Bumgarner would get on the open market? Local consensus seems to be ownership is opening the checkbook and re-signing him no matter what
Keith Law: If they want to do that, great, but they should let the market set his price. I wonder if demand will be tepid given how he looked this year.

Randy: What are your thoughts on K Bryant’s grievance? Of course Cubs manipulated time like every other team, but in 2015, both Mike Olt and Tommy LaStella got hurt and went on DL paving way for KB. Do you really think there is any way he is FA after 2020?
Keith Law: My assumption is he’ll get a financial settlement, not free agency. Yes, they manipulated service time, obviously. Can Boras prove this was the sole reason they didn’t promote him for Opening Day, enough to get a ruling that sets him free? That I doubt.

Pat D: If you go to Wikipedia’s page on the 2020 HOF balloting, for the Modern Baseball Committee, in addition to the 8 men not elected by that committee last time, they list 42 other players, umpires, managers and executives as possible candidates, most all of whom it seems you could at least have a discussion on whether they’re deserving. So it’ll be kinda sad when precious few ever get elected, right?
Keith Law: Those committees have really become an embarrassment to the Hall. I’ve had plenty to say about bad BBWAA selections, but whoa boy, we are way better than those guys.

Benji: If the Tigers were to seriously shop Matt Boyd this winter, do you think they’d be able to land a bat in the middle range of your top 100? Do you think they ought to shop him now regardless?
Keith Law: Yes and yes.

Ray: Isn’t it interesting how so many “patriotic” conservative pundits have never said a word about human rights abuses in China, until they saw an opportunity to yell at Lebron James for not saying enough about human rights abuses in China?
Keith Law: I posted a link to a piece from the Guardian this past Saturday that said exactly that.

Gloria: Can someone like Ray be fixed by another organization in the way you said the Astros fixed Cole or is it harder for hitters?
Keith Law: It’s never easy, but he’s had so many swing issues since entering pro ball, and yet has a good underlying sense of the strike zone, that I think there’s something there for the right development group. Would love to see what the Dodgers could do for him, to pick one example. Rays too.

TomBruno23: Finished The Mushroom Hunters yesterday, now all I want to do is try every mushroom out there. Checked out The Queen from my library today. Keep those book recs coming.
Keith Law: I have been on a similar quest for unusual mushrooms lately, but haven’t found any markets that sell them near me. If anyone has a rec for places in Philly or its environs, let me know. DiBruno’s let me down, unfortunately.

Jon G: How much scrutiny does a team that hires Gabe Kapler as a manager or front office executive deserve given how he handled allegations of abuse when with the Dodgers?
Keith Law: The public story on that does not match what I have been able to learn from talking to many people involved at the time (not including Kapler).

Todd: Florial, Garcia and Gil enough for Lindor?
Keith Law: No. The Yanks have done quite a job selling the public on Florial, but I don’t think the industry buys it.

addoeh: Regarding eliminating minor league teams, for the cities losing clubs in the east and mid-west, aren’t most of them fairly close, an hour drive or so, from another minor or even major league club? If the fans want to see professional baseball, they can.
Keith Law: And if an area has enough of a population to support another team, one will move there. Nobody in this system has any interest in keeping teams away from fans. Team owners at all levels want profits, which depend on fan bases. All of the markets I’ve heard might lose their teams are either very small or lack even remotely adequate facilities.

JR: Of the five managers hired so far (with three openings to go), all have been white guys. You think any minorities will get one of the final three positions? Any minority candidates you think that are deserving of a manager position?
Keith Law: I’m not optimistic.

Brad: What is Victor Robles ceiling? Is he a Jackie Bradley Jr.?
Keith Law: Totally different player.

Scott: Do you think Strasburg should opt out?
Keith Law: Yes, and I think he will.

Tom: Do you believe the ball has been de-juiced for the playoffs? Do you think it’s a sign of what’s ahead?
Keith Law: The baseball is clearly different. Not sure I believe it was deliberate, which is the popular accusation.

Joe: Joe Espada has twice been passed by guys who have zero experience (Boone and Ross). Is there something wrong with him as a potential hire?
Keith Law: I know nothing about Espada to answer that question, but passing over an experienced minority twice is a bad look for MLB.

Aaron Houston, Tx: What can we expect from Bobby Dalbec? Can he be a Devers type profile?
Keith Law: Totally different players.
Keith Law: Devers turns 23 today. Dalbec is already 24 and hasn’t reached the majors yet.

Salty: I vote independently and lean conservative. I don’t understand the love affair with the wealth tax proposed by the democratic candidates. It seems great in theory, but won’t the richest of the rich just use their high-priced accountants to avoid paying additional taxes like the plague? No one ever questions the candidates on that scenario? Am I completely wrong on the subject? It seems like there’s no chance the intended (hoped) revenue would ever come close to being realized.
Keith Law: Wealth is pretty hard to hide, harder than income is. I think the argument should be whether taxing the wealthiest Americans has any deleterious effects on our economy. I don’t think it does, but I don’t know the answer and I see very little discussion of it.

Pat D: Do you have an opinion about some films getting very little to no theatrical release and essentially premiering on streaming services? I’ve counted about 30 films between now and the end of the year that are set to be released that I’d like to see, so I’m not going to complain that I can stay home to watch a few of them.
Keith Law: I prefer it too since it’s 35 minutes for me to get to the Ritz art theaters in Philly.

Mike: Keith, where do you stand on the pace of play issue? It seems it takes so long between pitches now. 4 hour 9 inning games is ridiculous.
Keith Law: It’s not pace of play. It’s pace of game. There are too many commercials and too many breaks.

Rob k: NYC media is reporting there’s a potential BOMBSHELL candidate for the Mets job. Is it you?
Keith Law: It’s not, although with Tingler getting the San Diego job, there’s hope for us 5’6″ baseball dorks now.

Jason: Do you have a solution to the service-time manipulation for free agency? Regardless of where lines are drawn, teams will try to stay on the “good” side. Would age or time since signing be a better way to handle it?
Keith Law: I proposed one modest rule change back in March 2015.

Todd: How will teams get to Coors Field next season with the wall surrounding Colorado?
Keith Law: They’ll have to get really high.

Kris: Does the Girardi hire have any significance on the ability for the Phillies to get to playoffs, let alone win a title? Hard for any manager to succeed with a flawed, talet-poor roster and a franchise that’s unable to draft or develop talent. Not saying Girardi is a bad choice, but I think Kapler took the fall for a decade plus of organizational ineptitude (which doesn’t seem like it’s going to end anytime soon unless MacPhail is fired)
Keith Law: They need to go get another starter, and once again rebuild the bullpen. I do think Howard helps them in 2020, but he’s not the entire solution.

Jake: The category is: Guys who throw really hard but don’t get strikeouts because they work down in the zone and then they go to Houston. What’s the next name in this sequence: Morton, Cole…?
Keith Law: I would love to see Jon Gray in Houston.

RJ : What type of contract do you see Zach Wheeler commanding this offseason? I feel like teams might see him as a good player with great potential to take a step forward if he has an opportunity to play with better defense behind him. His advanced metrics seem to be great.
Keith Law: Buster swears Wheeler is getting 4+ years … good for him given how much time he missed with injuries. I do think he’s the third best starter on the market.

Chris: cast iron or carbon steel fry pan?
Keith Law: I own one of each.

Bruce: How well does managing in the minors translate to managing in the majors? With the handling of the players and in-game managment being so different I would think ML bench coach experience would be more valuable.
Keith Law: Is in-game management that different?

B Mand: I wanted to ask a follow-up to a question you answered last week about the Red Sox looking to see what the trade market is for Mookie. What kind of return would the Sox need to get in order to make this a worthwhile move?
Keith Law: At least two projected starters, either young MLBers or top prospects. Not just any ones, but good ones.

Eric: Went to Disney World with my family last week. Saw a guy in a red MAGA hat. It was really unsettling.
Keith Law: Well, he gave a lot of his money to one of the most LGBTQ+ friendly companies in the world to own the libs.

Larry Legend: I understand it’s not as simplistic as this but the old school scouty team beating the cold calculating really smart team makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.
Keith Law: Well, the Nats aren’t really “old school scouty.” They talk analytics as much as most clubs do.

Brian Godish: I’m asking this knowing the answer is “money”, but why don’t MLB teams invest some money in making their minor league facilities/travel a little bit more adequate? Teams are investing in their draft picks to produce, it would seem a decent nights sleep should be helpful for said draft picks/international signing. It seems crazy how the minors work from a financial perspective.
Keith Law: They don’t own the teams. There’s no reason for them to invest in facilities they won’t own, and that could benefit another parent org when the affiliation agreement is up.

John: Should the Twins give Odorizzi a QO?
Keith Law: Yes.

Chris B: Do you think the Indians move Lindor this offseason? If they have no plans of resigning him then this would be the perfect time to maximize the return.
Keith Law: They absolutely should. I don’t get the sense they will.

Oscar: Any cookbook recommendations for a complete novice? I’m talking super simple.
Keith Law: Joy of Cooking was the first real cookbook I ever used, and I think it’s perfect for a newbie.

Chris: If writing about baseball and board games isn’t an option, but you could write full time about either music or food, which would you choose?
Keith Law: Food. I find writing about music harder than any other things I write about; it’s the most subjective topic I hit on, and translating things I hear into words without lapsing into discussions of Phrygian modes or counterpoints is quite difficult. (And who the hell wants to read that kind of writing?)

Ricky: I’ve seen a lot of Blue Jays fans patting themselves and the organization on the back for getting rid of Osuna but…if they wanted to do the “right” thing, shouldn’t they have just cut him rather than exchange his value or something else (even if it’s at a diminished cost)? I’m not sure how much “credit” they (or any team that trades someone accused of DV for something of value) should get.
Keith Law: I have no issue with them handling it as they did. I’m actually unsure if they could just release the player under the DV policy.

Pat: By taxing “wealth”, what do do you do? These people don’t have those $$ lying around in cash, it’s in some non-liquid asset, like stock or real estate, etc. Make the wealthy sell assets to pay the wealth tax? Does that affect the value of the assets? I’m not saying high income shouldn’t pay more taxes, but, the logistics of taxing “wealth” seem fuzzy to me.
Keith Law: You open a separate argument, which is that our capital gains tax is WAY too low. We tax regular income more heavily than we tax capital gains, but capital gains tend to accrue to higher income earners and to the wealthy, not to the majority of American households.

Geralt of Rivia: Gut feeling – even with the talk of trimming the payroll, luxury tax, etc., do the Red Sox come to terms with Betts? Trade him in the offseason? Ride out 2020 with the hopes of being in contention?
Keith Law: Depends on who’s GM and what ownership wants to do, but I don’t see a good path to contention for them in 2020 with their current pitching staff.

Stu: Is toxic maleness endemic to baseball, and other male sports, or can it be fixed?
Keith Law: Toxic masculinity is endemic to any patriarchal society. It’s not just sports; they are the visible tip of a very large iceberg.

Scott: Hi Keith. Looking forward to reading book #2. What are your thoughts on Barber to the Phillies?
Keith Law: Nice guy. Don’t know much about his own philosophy, but he comes from an org that integrates traditional scouting and analytical tools about as well as any team does.

Ben: Any Seattle eats recommendations? I am headed there for work and know nothing about the food scene.
Keith Law: I haven’t been since 2001 (and it kills me).

Pat D: I find the combination of Buck and Smoltz to be pretty unbearable to listen. Do you feel that way or am I just convinced that they both hate the Yankees and make no attempt to hide that?
Keith Law: I have watched all of their games without the sound. Smoltz’s attitude on modern players and especially on analytics does MLB no favors at all. Actually, I did hear a bit of game one, and I think he referred to Scherzer “going to the computer” in Max’s brain to figure out how to get some hitter out. I mean, John, that’s what analytics departments do. So it’s okay if a player uses his fallible memory, but not okay if we use the ACTUAL FUCKING DATA?

Craig: Why aren’t more major league teams simply buying affiliates when they come up for sale? The easy way to guarantee a good location/good facilities is to own the team yourself.
Keith Law: Then you have to run the teams.

Geralt of Rivia: Are fantasy and sci-fi genres that you are less interested in? (movies/tv/books) I think I just see you talk about them less, no judgment just curious.
Keith Law: Not true at all. I’ve read every Hugo winner but four (Cyteen, the two Mars books, and this year’s winner).

Allen: Wealth is actually much easier hide then income, primarily because there is much more ambiguity in terms of what someone’s actual wealth is. Several European countries have eliminated their wealth tax because the costs of collecting it weren’t worth the revenue gained. https://www.accountingtoday.com/articles/democrats-love-a-wealth-tax-b…
Keith Law: Bookmarking this to read later, thank you.

Chris: If invited, would you ever sit for an interview on Hot Ones? And how far up the Scoville Scale could you go?
Keith Law: I would, but not very far.

Vincent Adultman: Do you think Didi would accept a QO?
Keith Law: No. He’s a top ten FA this winter.

Gloria: I’m sure some of your readers/trolls are upset by the MAGA hat comment, but I hope they realize that for me and many others it’s like seeing a KKK hood, swastika, etc.
Keith Law: If you choose to wear that hat, you are doing so with the full understanding that many people will see it and find it offensive – and that, Mr. Luhnow, is “intent.”

Sean: I believe you really liked Zadie Smith’s White Teeth. Do you plan on checking out her new short story collection Grand Union?
Keith Law: Eventually yes. Read On Beauty and Swing Time, both fine, neither measured up to White Teeth.

Buscon Bob: How awful is the Cubs pitching development part of their farm system? Baltimore bad?
Keith Law: They haven’t drafted much pitching either – their strategy was always to draft bats and trade for or sign pitchers. Hard to kill their player development for failing to develop prospects they never had.

John: Did you read beyond the Three-Body Problem?
Keith Law: I didn’t; it was fine, but felt no need to move on from there. The whole unfolding-the-proton gambit was right up against the edge of the envelope for me … I was like, okay, I think I’m good here.

Dave: re Taubman – is it normal for front office types to be in the locker room during celebrations, etc.? Was this always the case?
Keith Law: Yes, it’s normal, and I have no objection to him or any other FO personnel being there.

Pat: Agree on capital gains, it should be higher taxed. Never understood why the tax rate is tied to how long you owned the asset.How about a sloped capital gains tax % based on amount gained, similar to income tax? Maybe the top tier is 50% for any gain over $5M or something?
Keith Law: Sure, at least that’s moving in the right direction – and while it will somewhat disincentivize capital investment, I don’t think that will stop anyone from trying to found the next Amazon or Facebook either. Set it at a rate where investors will still think they can get rich, even though they may give nearly half of it to the government in taxes.

Pat: Odds that Taubman was drunk in the clubhouse? That’s my hunch. Not that that’s an excuse, but it led him to say the quiet part of what surely was an internal talking point about this reporter continuously pointing out that Osuna is a scumbag out loud
Keith Law: If he was, well, in vino veritas.

Moe Mentum: Who was more musically innovative, David Bowie or David Byrne? How about most *influential*?
Keith Law: Don’t know their oeuvres enough to answer the first one but Bowie was certainly more influential.

Patrick: Who do you believe is the top prep righty in the 2020 class? Abel? Kelley?
Keith Law: Probably Kelley right now, with Abel 2. Definitely the top two guys.

Bruce: Thoughts on The Mets interviewing Eduardo Perez?
Keith Law: Very happy for him.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thanks to all of you, especially the substantial portion of you named “Pat,” for reading and for all of your questions. Keep an eye out for my Paste list of the top board games of the 2010s, and for a formal announcement about my second book, The Inside Game, in the next few days. Enjoy your weekends!