Keith Law: I know there’s got to be a break in the monotony. Klawchat.

Nate: With the lost year of development for many minor league players has there been any talk of pushing Rule 5 eligibility back a year?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard that. It would have to be collectively bargained, and it would be a disaster for minor leaguers. Let’s hope the union stands up for them, even though they’re non-members.

Max G: Hey Keith, thanks for taking the time to do this. You had mentioned (I believe in your last chat) that a factor in you ranked big-name-heavy systems, such as the Tigers, Ordeals, and WSox, where you did was because of their historically poor international programs. What does improving these club’s international scouting look like, and is there any hope for these orgs?
Keith Law: I like the autocorrect of the Orioles as “Ordeals.” I’m sure fans who’ve lived through the last few years would concur. It’s not just one solution for all teams – in Baltimore’s case, it was the previous regime’s choice to eschew that market completely, while in Detroit and Chicago, they tended to avoid the higher-bonus guys, and did not get great results when they did go for the seven-figure players.

xxx(yyy): thoughts on NBA Top Shot? chances we see an MLB version of that same kind of concept?
Keith Law: Had to look this up. I really don’t know anything about this idea. Digital assets aren’t assets. You don’t own the ebooks you think you bought. You’re just leasing them.

Mitchell: What first year players, J2 or 2020 draftees are you most excited to see in person in Sprint Training?
Keith Law: This will be a column in March.

Ben (MN): Have you tried playing any board games with others virtually? If so, any that work well? I’m getting so sick of two player games because my wife beats me all the time.
Keith Law: On gaming sites, yes. Across Zoom, only more social games. I wrote about some for Vulture back in November. https://klaw.me/2HdYUAl

Terry: I patiently waited for your NL Central Top 20 prospects lists to see where Drew Rasmussen was going to land….quickly learning after his name didn’t appear that he lost rookie eligibility (face, meet palm). Thoughts on him?
Keith Law: One-inning reliever. Horrible overuse at Oregon State ended any chance he’d be more.

bROOKS: Matt Thaiss – major leaguer? Bench likely, or every day guy?
Keith Law: Bench ceiling. Not enough bat for every day guy.

Billy: Is Cubs fans dragging of the Ricketts family warranted?
Keith Law: I mean, there are so many reasons…

Stu: Have you heard anything about Verlander’s progress? Best guess: does he pitch in the majors again? He’ll be out of a contract at the end of the season
Keith Law: Oh, he’ll pitch in the majors again. Someone will give him a chance even if he’s throwing 87.
Keith Law: I have no idea how he’s doing.

Duchess: Hey Keith, Pedro Leon seems unique in that he’s a older than many of the international prospects and has some pro experience. Understand that the long layoff introduces a huge variable, but what are the chances he sees a rapid run through the minors and ends up in Houston later in the summer?
Keith Law: He’s really interesting in that he has the tools of a top 50 or even top 25 prospect, is older than the typical J2 signing, but is younger than most of the good Cuban position player prospects who’ve come over (other than Robert, I think). We just have no idea how advanced he is as a hitter because the Serie Nacional has been so bad since the waves of defections began 8-10 years ago.

RobD: Do we really know how valuable it is for prospects to play in real minor league games vs other ways to develop their skills? I often hear about needing more time in game situations – is there really no other way to teach them those things than games? I have been wondering if something like 2-3 games a week plus alternative training ala Driveline might be a more efficient means of development. I know I am colored by my high school baseball days where we’d spend hours on a bus just to play a game where I’d get 4 ABs and a few groundballs hit to me.
Keith Law: I don’t buy that at all. The hardest things to do in baseball involve other players who are trying to do the other hardest things against you – getting hitters out, hitting real pitching.

Andy: How do ratings on the Athletic work, from the writer perspective? If I rate everything as solid, but occasional things as awesome, does that help ratings or is it like Uber, that awesome is the standard and anything below it could be an issue?
Keith Law: No one has ever mentioned those ratings to me.

barbeach: Belated congrats on your nuptials.  Wishing you many decades of happiness.  Bought Azul to play with the family based on your recommendation…has been great fun as we navigate Covid cabin fever.  So thanks.  Question: Is this the year Clint Frazier really breaks out?
Keith Law: If he’s healthy, he’ll play and be fine. I don’t think he’s a star because the same swing and miss issues that were there in high school are, as far as I know, still there.

Todd Boss: Texas frozen windmills == root cause of Texas’ power grid failures.  Right.  At what point does the disingenuity of right wing media become so ridiculous that even the brainwashed masses who watch it call BS?
Keith Law: Never. That will simply never happen. Denialism is too entrenched in American culture, the result of poor public education, income inequality, and our high degree of religiosity compared to other developed nations.

Andy: How long until you feel comfortable going to a game? How long until you feel comfortable taking your family to a game (since there won’t be a vaccine for kids until at least 2022 season?) It’s outdoors, but the yelling and close proximity, makes me hesitant.
Keith Law: I’ll go when I’m vaccinated, or I’ll go if it’s just media and scouts but no fans. I don’t see taking the kids till next year.

JT: Is using Biggio as a stop gap until Austin is ready a perfectly OK solution for the Jays? All of the rumored links to 3B seem to reveal that they get it on Biggio–he’s not a long term starter.
Keith Law: The signing of Semien was the clearest indicator to me that they see what I have always said about Biggio. He shouldn’t be playing every day for a contender.

JT: How hard is it to consider guys like Yadier Alvarez when doing your lists and organizational charts? In a normal year, we would have seen how he reacted to adversity, and it’s possible he could have broken through. Now, it’s almost like we’re forced logically to assume the worst–which tends to happen, ‘natch.
Keith Law: I say this facetiously, but … who?

John Olerud: So… how do the Ms best handle this? Indeed, as a (now more embarrassed and more reluctant than ever) fan of this sorry team, what would you say is the best approach going forward, both on a responsible/ethical and (less importantly) competitive level? To be sure, these are not mutually exclusive outcomes, and any suggestion of such is no doubt complete BS. But I’d be grateful to get your analysis of the situation and your suggestions for any ideal hires. Thanks as always for taking the time.
Keith Law: The M’s need an actual investigation into their internal culture, because, in most cases, if the President feels this way, it’s reflected throughout the organization. Any solution depends on just how widespread these sentiments are.

Todd Boss: If you were the Nats, would you stick Seth Romero as a starter in AAA or have him compete for the lefty reliever MLB bullpen slot?
Keith Law: Can’t see him being a starter with his persistent knuckleheadedness.

JT: I signed up for the Athletic for you and for Eno. Thank you for what you do.
Keith Law: Thank you. Your subscriptions allow me to do what I do.

Jake: What did you hear about Seth Corry in instructs that jumped him into your top 100? Do you think he starts in AA and at least starts the clock for giving the Giants pitching a much needed youth infusion?
Keith Law: The answer to the first question is in the player capsule for Corry. The answer to the second is yes to AA and no to the majors.

Aaron: Agree with your take on the Chicago 7 – it shows the full Sorkin experience, with the good and bad that implies (maybe he created the female FBI agent to have a bad female character).
Keith Law: In fairness, and I don’t feel any real need to be fair to Sorkin, the real story has no women in it. Creating a fictional female character to avoid that is probably a good thing. Creating THAT fictional female character was just stupid.

Phillip P.: Thanks for the chat, Keith! By every measure, Ronald Acuna has been a star. And if he maintains his level of production for a long time, he’ll be a HOFer. But what are the chances he makes the leap from being a 5- to 6-win player to being an 8-plus-WAR guy? What adjustments does he need to make to get there?
Keith Law: He’s still just 23, and B-R had him at 2.3 WAR in 46 games played last year (a rate of 8.1 WAR per 162 games) after a 5.7 WAR in 2019. Your question sort of presumes he’s not already heading towards a 7-8 WAR peak and I don’t agree with that.

JJ: What will you miss most about the Tim Tebow Era?
Keith Law: Oh, no question, the whining from people who claimed I hate Tebow for his religious beliefs, as if he was the only Christian in baseball.

Dan: Thanks as always for the chat Keith! Who in the Twins system do you think has the best chance to have a helium year and jump up the rankings?
Keith Law: Every team report has a Sleeper section at the end that answers this precise question.

Rob: I’m curious now that you’ve gone through the whole prospect exercise (and thanks for all 80,000 words, by the way), did you end up getting more usable and reliable (aka independently sourced) scouting information than expected?
Keith Law: No, I don’t think so. I’m glad this book is closed and we will get games this year, with scouting reports and data, to make the whole exercise better and more enjoyable in 2022.

Joe: Does Antoine Kelly project as a starter or more a 2 pitch reliever?
Keith Law: Starter with high variance.

Guest: With Lindor, Baez, Correa, Seager and Story all free agents at the same time, what do you think those contracts look like?  My assumption is that all of them expect $150 million+ but I have a hard time finding 5 realistic teams that will bid at that level.
Keith Law: Depends on whether there are any more free agents out there as a result of the new CBA – or if the CBA negotations are drawn out and we get some sort of labor stoppage.

Tom: I think we’re probably ok to just throw out Kris Bryants 2020 and say he’s still a .380 OBP 500 SLG guy, right?
Keith Law: I would work off that assumption if I were Hoyer.

JJ: Ten years, $240 million, and three total playoff games — do you think, if given a redo, either the Angels or Albert Pujols would do that contract again?
Keith Law: I’m sure Pujols would. I doubt the Angels would.

Jackie: Do you think Jeter Downs takes over at second base for the Red Sox some time in 2021?  I’m not too excited by the thought of Enrique Hernandez on an everyday basis.
Tim: How close to being a MLBer is Khalil Lee? What’s his most likely future? Thanks.
Keith Law: I think Downs could, yes.
Keith Law: Lee is probably not far at all from being a big leaguer, but he has a real adjustment to make before he’s a regular (and the hope is that he started to make it at the alt site).

Salty: You mentioned last chat about not investing in crypto partially because it’s an environmental disaster.  I don’t get involved with it personally due to a lack of understanding and confidence in it, but never thought of it in that light.  Can you please expound on that, unless you feel this isn’t the best format to do so?
Keith Law: I believe I linked to it in the last chat. Cryptocurrencies require tremendous computing power, and the energy used to support them already rivals some countries’ entire energy usage. And to what end? None, other than speculation.

Heather: What’s your favorite conspiracy theory that you secretly think, “Yeah, that one might actually be true”?  Roswell, the JFK assassination, the Patrick Ewing Lottery Fix, pedophile pizza parlors?
Keith Law: I mean, one of those things (Ewing) is not like the others. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to hear a pro sports league rigged something to ensure that a player went to a specific market – or, worse, to ensure that, say, Michael Jordan never fouled out of a game because it would crush TV ratings. The other three things you mentioned are all basically nuts.

Brian: I had a question there (I’m the Dylan Cease guy) and hit send too soon. My question was if you were the WSox, would you rather have Dylan Cease or Dane Dunning?
Keith Law: Cease.

Chris P: Didn’t see Derek Hill in your top 20 for the Tigers. You had been higher on him than most in the past due to his athleticism, but has he gone past the prospect level now?
Keith Law: With no evidence to say he’s going to either make more contact or hit the ball harder than he did in 2019, we have a 25-year-old whose ceiling is fourth outfielder.

Todd Boss: When Jared Kelenic is sent to AAA on April 1st for two weeks, how big will the outrage be?
Keith Law: He has more reason for a grievance than Kris Bryant did, given Mather’s comments. That said, is Kelenic actually ready for the majors? Do we know that? The Mariners might have a good answer, but with no minor league season in 2020, we’d just be guessing.

Kori: Hi Keith – if Austin Beck can (a big if) bring his hit tool to 40, does that rest of the package make him an average regular?
Keith Law: Don’t think so. 45 yes, 40 no.
Keith Law: Well … even at a 45, is the power he shows in BP also showing up in games? Or does he get to that grade 45 (thus still below average) hit tool by shortening up and trading power for contact?

Matthew: Catcher of the future in Toronto: Jansen, Kirk, or…?
Keith Law: I might bet on Moreno over Kirk, but it’s not Jansen.

Old Prospector: Do you think Francisco Mejia can be an everyday player in MLB?
Keith Law: I do. There are few guys who hit like he did in the minors and then completely fail to hit in the majors. Andy Marte comes to mind. But they’re rare.
Keith Law: And Mejia didn’t just put up empty numbers. He really hit, with some impact, and a good swing, and scouts agreed with the stat lines.

Old Prospector: Obviously it is going to be a rough year in Pittsburgh. Beyond Hayes and Keller, is there anyone on the big league roster you think could be a valuable contributor the next time the Pirates are competing for a playoff spot?
Keith Law: I could see Reynolds ending up on that roster 3-4 years from now. Anyone else of merit would be gone by then, though.

Jay: Do you think we’ll ever see two DHs? Or teams use their DH for their catcher instead of the pitcher? It feels like catcher’s are getting worse offensively as a collective for some time now.
Keith Law: No, I don’t, and I don’t agree on the latter point. I think catchers hit about as well as they did 30-40 years ago, but they catch better.

Dan: Do you think Vlad will be able to make the adjustment(s) to get the ball in the air more this year? I know it’s super early in his career, but was that ever a concern of yours/anyone’s regarding his swing? I can’t recall ever reading anything about his GB%.
Keith Law: I think he will at some point, but all the people excited about his weight loss seem to think the two are connected and they’re absolutely not.

Sandy Alderson: Is Biden reopening the child detention facility as bad as it sounds? What do we do to hold him accountable?
Keith Law: It isn’t as bad as it sounds, but that didn’t stop everyone from reacting to a headline. They had to reopen the facility to comply with COVID-19 prevention guidelines. The Washington Post and NPR both fact-checked this claim.

Dr. Bob: Isn’t the problem that Kelenic can’t file a grievance if he’s sent down because he won’t be represented by the union until he comes up?
Keith Law: Bryant wasn’t either. He still filed one (and lost).

Jay: When COL signed Arenado to his extension, I thought COL signed him for a good $/WAR/year and it was a good value. Why did they have to kick in an extra $50M to trade him for prospects with such limited ceilings and FV?
Keith Law: Poor negotiating by the Rockies? I don’t have another answer.

Prospector: Who would your project for better offensive production if they both reach close to their ceilings – CJ Abrams or Ronny Mauricio?
Keith Law: Abrams.

Jay: Give me hope that Blaze Jordan will be an all-star. Not because I like the Red Sox, but because we need more Dodgeball named guys in MLB
Keith Law: Extremely unlikely. Singles hitting first baseman. Needs a massive swing overhaul to get to his power.

Old Prospector: Any thoughts on Elijah Greene? Is he a potentially generational type 1-1 pick type guy?
Keith Law: He’s going to be a high pick in 2022 – there was some talk he’d try to reclassify into 2021 – but I am not putting that tag on him yet.

JJ: I don’t think everyone involved in the JFK assassination was arrested.  Oliver Stone made everyone who thinks that way look like a lunatic, however.  Thanks, Oliver.
Keith Law: I haven’t seen that movie, essentially for that reason: ultimately he’s trafficking in, and profiting from, conspiracy theories. I know people say the movie is great. I can’t watch it with clear eyes.

davealden53: First time since your wedding that I’ve stumbled upon one of your chats while it was still going on.  Congrats on the wedding and especially on the letter you wrote about it.  The letter was so sincere and quietly joyful that I’ve yet to delete it but instead return to reread it regularly.
Keith Law: thank you! you haven’t missed many chats – this is only my third since I got married – but I appreciate the kind words.

Andy: I know you haven’t done draft rankings yet but Leiter v Rocker, who are you leaning towards having higher? Also, is that top 2 better (in college) than UCLA’s of Cole-Bauer?
Keith Law: Draft rankings next week. I have never understood the idea that Rocker was some obvious 1-1 guy. He’s not. And I don’t think he’s going to be 1 on my ranking. This is some combination of him throwing the no-hitter two years ago and being famous and good in high school (he was), but those aren’t reasons for a player to be taken first overall.

Todd Boss: Will the ill-advised comments of now resigned Mariner’s president have a profound effect on the next CBA?  Or will his comments be spun as the words of a raving mad-man that are completely untrue?
Keith Law: I’m hopeful it encourages the players to take a harder line this time around, after they went for quality of life improvements in the last negotiations but ended up conceding too much ground on other fronts, including the luxury tax and the international free agency system.

Lacey: Hey Keith, do you have any baseball podcast series you’d recommened? I just finished The Edge about the Astros and loved it. Anything along those lines?
Keith Law: No, sorry, even in a pre-pandemic world I only listened to 3-4 podcasts, and now without time in the car I have a hard time keeping up with those.

Matt: What’s your take on Mitch Keller….didn’t allow a hit in his last eleven innings, but walked ten guys….
Keith Law: We know by now that pitchers not allowing hits is at least partly a function of luck/defense, and not exclusively a credit to the pitcher. You’re also asking about a sample so small it’s meaningless. Keller’s main problem is the lack of a third pitch to get lefties out – in 2020, he walked 11 LHB and struck out 6, and he’s had problems with LHB going back at least to AA.

Guest: What will be the highest priority for the union in the next CBA: fixing service time manipulation, making drastic changes to the luxury tax, reducing the number of controlled years from 6 to something like 4, something else?
Keith Law: It should be the luxury tax, although I would also like to see them reduce the number of years to free agency to 5.

Chris: You’re forced to answer, which team is the best run organization in baseball right now?
Keith Law: Fun fact: I am not forced to answer, so I won’t. There are many well-run organizations in baseball right now.

Len: Macro Luciano – can he become a GUY?
Keith Law: Yes.

Chris: I’m a huge Dodger fan, but I just absolutely love what the Padres have done the last couple of years (minus Hosmer). It is just so refreshing to see a team trying to win (and what a weird thing to say about professional sports).
Keith Law: It’s great for baseball, but isn’t it good business? Sure, you can take easy profits from revenue sharing, but if you want the bigger payoff, doesn’t it make sense to exploit the inefficiency of other teams essentially doing as little as possible and try to win? If the Padres end up with their first World Championship, it will also result in a large windfall for the owners.

Dee Arby: Our educational system needs a massive overhaul, what core subjects outside of science and math should we be teaching the kids?
Keith Law: Critical thinking. That’s more of a multi-disciplinary thing, but teaching students to read with a critical eye – perhaps using the SIFT method – and understand how to tell when someone is lying or misleading them, or when a conclusion isn’t supported by the evidence provided, or how unconscious biases might affect what they see and think.

Nate: Not a baseball comment — having the league fix the draft lottery so the Knicks win the rights to Patrick Ewing, then never winning a championship with Patrick Ewing, is so typical of the Knicks.  They can’t even cheat properly.
Keith Law: That joke was the best thing in all of Soul.

Guest: Just saw Royce Lewis, top prospect of Twins shows up for Spring Training and under preliminary physical is revealed to have torn ACL and out for the year.  As an athlete, how can you have that serious an injury and not know???
Keith Law: Perhaps he was hoping for a better outcome? I’m sure lots of us have had health scares, or know people who’ve had, where you knew something was wrong but hoped or prayed (if you’re so inclined) for a better diagnosis than the worst case scenario.

JR: Has tanking gone so far that it’s become a strategy for not really trying but we can tell our fans it’s our plan? I feel like Cubs/Astros started this trend, and it worked for the most part for them.  Other teams have tried but seemed to only be serious about the tanking aspect and not the “spending once we get good” aspect, yet they keep using tanking to stay bad/not spend.
Keith Law: The “we’ll spend when we get good” line is the key here. As long as fans buy it, they’ll sell that … and never spend.

Pat: Courses that should be mandatory in school- Some type of personal finance. Teach kids about credit, stocks, interest, borrowing, student loans, etc. I wonder how much lesser the student loan debt crisis would be if young people at least had a basic understanding of what they’re signing.
Keith Law: Yes. I’d rather see a full year of economics – half on personal finance, half on how the economy actually works – than a fourth year of English (or literature). I say that as an avid reader, too. The former is a lot more useful for life after high school than reading Pride and Prejudice and An American Tragedy.

Rules for Thee: Why did you feel it appropriate to have a wedding ceremony amidst the pandemic?  I know you said you were in compliance with Delaware regulations but you’ve also criticized those regulations.  So which is it?  Abiding the regulations makes approved activities safe?  Or the state’s regulations are putting people needlessly at risk?
Keith Law: That’s simply false. I did not criticize Delaware’s regulations on gatherings, which were very strict and right to be so. We adhered to those, with a tiny reception, and to mask and distancing guidelines as well. I have criticized the lax rules on bars being open, though. Go troll somewhere else.

Frank: Please fine “Rules for Thee” $5 for baiting.
Keith Law: Oh, absolutely.

Chris: I’m wondering if you have an opinion on a team having a fixation in the international market for specific countries.  The Dodgers seem to skew heavily towards Venezuela right now, for example.
Keith Law: That was true at some points in the past – Houston had a longstanding affinity for Venezuelan prospects in the 1990s – but I don’t know if that’s feasible now with a hard cap on international bonuses. That said, the failed state in VZ and danger of travel there could also mean an opportunity for teams willing to take that risk or spend more for personal security there.

Guest: Keith, what does it say about an organization that just a year or so ago would sign a young player like Arrenado (or in NFL, Wentz or Goff) to huge 9 figure contracts and then move on??
Keith Law: Aren’t those NFL deals non-guaranteed? I don’t think it’s a perfect analogy. Also, Carson Wentz held the ball for your entire question and just got sacked.

Oscar: Have you ever considered designing your own board game? It’s not like you have too many other things going on . . .
Keith Law: Yes. It’s a time-consuming task, though, and I have so much else I need or want to do.

Guest: Keith, as a follow-up to the Mather talk:  Don’t  these multi-billion dollar organizations have internal media training and updating memos of how and what to say in public??  It seems like such an easy answer to a lot of stupidity.
Keith Law: Yes. I’m not sure they think to include Presidents and CEOs in those. Isn’t there an assumption (wrong, obviously) that if you’ve risen to that point you already know how to deal with the public?

Joe: What percentage which you say AAA games happen in early April at home stadiums? How about the other levels in May?
Keith Law: I think the games will happen – figure maybe 20% are cancelled due to positive tests – without fans until at least May. MLB may just have to accept that they need to subsidize some of those teams, which is only fair since they just executed a hostile takeover of the minors anyway.

Mike Trout: Longtime reader so seeing you comment and watch football is a little jarring. What do you like about it now that you didn’t seem to like before?
Keith Law: I married an Eagles fan. Although I have to say I prefer watching rugby. As long as we beat the English, I don’t care!
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thanks so much for reading, especially with the large amount of content I dumped on you in the past month. I will have a draft ranking up next week, and remember that The Inside Game is coming out in paperback on April 6th. You can pre-order it now, and maybe I’ll get to do some signing events this summer once more of us are vaccinated too. Stay safe everyone!

Starting today at 1 pm. I ranked all 30 farm systems for subscribers to the Athletic yesterday, and my team-by-team top 20s and org reports began today with the AL East – Baltimore, Boston, NY Yankees, Tampa Bay, and Toronto. Also, I reviewed the fun press-your-luck game 7 Summits for Paste.

Keith Law: Use your detour, life’s like a seesaw. Klawchat.

RJ: How much of a change does the Khalil Lee trade make for the Royals and Mets
Keith Law: In their system rankings? None. But Lee is now on the Mets’ top 20, which will run early next week, and was 8th on the Royals’ list.

Trevor: Klaw – even amidst the financial uncertainty teams still PAID the top tier players with high-dollar or long-term contracts. Of the four, 5+ year or 9-figure contracts (Springer, JT, DJ, Bauer), which would you be most comfortable investing in holding it’s value?
Keith Law: Springer. That’s why he was #1 on my list – best long-term impact.

Max: I know it hasn’t been a full two years, but are you seeing changes with the Astros under Click re: incorporating traditional scouting alongside the advanced metrics?
Keith Law: Not yet, but I also think he wasn’t able to staff up effectively during the pandemic.

addoeh: Ford Proctor; new compact sport-utility EV being released later this year or Rays IF/C prospect?
Keith Law: Or protagonist in a bad 1980s action movie?

John Olerud: Why do you hate my Mariners? Seriously, though, on a pure baseball front, no matter where one is to rank the Ms farm system overall, it does seem that (despite maybe a few cringe-worthy moves during Dipoto’s “trade a paperclip for a house” phase) for the first time in a long time Seattle might  finally have some workable approach to drafting and development. That said, in knowing what you know and talking to the people you trust to put together these lists, would you agree with this sentiment? Or do you think in your estimation that the Ms ownership would do better not to extend Dipoto’s current contract and look elsewhere?
Keith Law: I do think they’re heading in the right direction on multiple fronts, not least of which is that they’re keeping prospects rather than trading them. I think the confusion among some Mariners fans is that the top of the system is so good – and hasn’t been like this in at least a decade – but it falls off very quickly after the top tier of seven guys.

NYT Parody Lede: Former President Trump may have incited the insurrection at the Capitol on January 6, but these five people in this Ohio diner think he didn’t do anything wrong.
Keith Law: Don’t give the Grey Lady any ideas.

nickolai: Thoughts on MLB’s decision to deaden the ball for 2021?  A return to sanity, or just something else MLB will F up?
Keith Law: Half measure. Really need to see the strike zone change as well, or we’re going to end up with fewer home runs but no reduction in strikeouts.

Ben (MN): The running joke is that you hate every fan’s favorite team, but do you ever get negative feedback from people in the business (non-players or family members)? I’d imagine it would look a lot different than the internet comments, but any angry voicemails or texts over the years saying something like “how can player X not make your list”?
Keith Law: Extremely rarely. It’s what makes fan complaints so hilarious. Team execs know my information is good and my opinions are at least backed by research and evidence (which doesn’t make them right, of course). But this is the time of year when every fan is an expert on the other 29 teams’ prospects.

xxx(yyy): favorite cold weather food?
Keith Law: The most honest answer is pizza, which is also my favorite hot weather food, and my favorite lukewarm weather food.

Deke: I’m sure the massive deadline was a good motivator, but how are you/have you been dealing with 2020/2021-based ennui? I feel like everybody I know has hit a wall over the past few weeks.
Keith Law: What’s really hurt is the sudden arrival of more snow and ice than we’ve had in Delaware in at least five years, so I haven’t been able to run much at all. I’m playing some more games online, and trying to meditate more, but like you I am just over all of this. I will finish all the team writeups by EOD Monday and I’m going to take a couple of days to recharge somehow.

Alex: Looking at the Marcell Ozuna contract as a Braves fan, I can’t help thinking that it was an outright steal. Of course, it feels like every corner outfielder has been underpaid this winter. Since he’ll be playing the field for one more season, how many runs do you think he’s likely to give back with the glove? Do you feel that his negative defensive value is overstated or is he really Adam Dunn out there?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s as bad as Adam Dunn and I agree the deal was great value for them.

Guest: While I’m not disappointed with the Mets offseason (Porter notwithstanding) I thought there were some head scratching moves. The Springer thing I could understand because of DH uncertainty. I thought they overpaid for Mccann. Also, why not try and make a better offer for Darvish? I’d rather get him than pay $40m for Bauer. OR try and get Arenado.
Keith Law: They could have topped the Arenado offer, certainly, although I have no complaints about them acquiring Lindor and Carrasco.

John: Hi Keith! Could you please compare Robert Hassell vs Zac Veen in terms of overall raw tools ? Who is better prospect ? Thanks
Keith Law: I think that question is answered more fully on my top 100 than I could give you here.

Ben: Hi Keith. Thanks as always for your work. Do you hear any scuttlebut or have any theories on why the Yankees seem to have so much trouble keeping their players—at both the minor and major league level—healthy?
Keith Law: Is that true? More so than other clubs?

Fred: Besides Dylan Carlson, which Cardinals’ prospects have the highest ceiling? Walker? Winn? Hence?
Keith Law: Probably Walker, but his probability is low – he has a ways to go with the bat. He’s as raw a hitter as the typical Mississippi high school product (he’s from Georgia, so I’m saying he’s analogous to MS kids, who have the worst track record in the draft of any southern state).

Onion Bubs: You may have addressed this somewhere before, and if so, I apologize: When ranking farm systems, how much do you weigh the top few prospects vs. the depth of the system?
Keith Law: You need both. A system with 4-5 high-end prospects but no depth is not going to rank ahead of a system with 3 high-end prospects but depth of 10-12 more guys with everyday upside.

Chris: Thoughts on the Bauer contract?
Keith Law: No.

Arty: If you’re the Cardinals, given how the infield is looking, do you feel comfortable going into the season with an outfield mix of O’Neill/J. Williams/L. Thomas/Bader/Carlson or do you think they should add another OF to the mix?
Keith Law: I really hope they give Williams a shot. He’s never been an elite prospect but I think he’s a big leaguer, and he may surprise us and be a soft regular.

Jason: Pecota has the brewers winning the central. Do you agree? and, do you think they should sign Turner if they can?
Keith Law: Without doing any real work to investigate the question I would pick the Cardinals.

Dave: Thanks for the time today.  From the prospect stable of middle infielders – who do you ultimately see as the 2B/SS combo for Cleveland?
Kane: What can you tell us about the Diamondbacks host of pitching prospects? Anyone stick out to you as someone who pitches near the front of their future rotation?
Keith Law: If Arias hits, he’s your shortstop, but that’s a huge if. Rocchio at 2b seems like the most probable of their current MIF prospects to stay at a position and hit.
Keith Law: Dbacks report will be up next week but I think Walston’s their top pitchiing prospect in terms of ceiling and also present value.

Chris: Hi Keith I’m looking at the mariners ranking of 13th compared to being 11th last year and noticed you increased the rankings of their 1, 3, 4 and 5 prospect from this year to last and that they retained prospect eligibility of the majority of their top 15. What led to this drop, did other systems improve a lot, was last year a down year, or did the graduation of sheffield and lewis (7 and 10 last year) effect their ranking more so than the addition of hancock (rated higher than white) and trammell (rated higher than dunn)?
Keith Law: There are 29 other teams in baseball and their systems also changed in the last year.

Jason: Thoughts on Keston Hiura playing first?
Keith Law: I wonder if he’s really going to hit enough to be more than a 50 there. He can hit, but I don’t see more than average power, and his other tools are all limited.

Ben: Do you think Brian Cashman sees the Dodgers acting like a big market team with big revenues and feels frustrated that Steinbrenner won’t let him do likewise?
Keith Law: I mean, I could see 28 other GMs playing a symphony on the world’s 28 tiniest violins.

Mike: Hi Keith. Love your books and all your writing! Question about PTBNL. When the Sox have 3 of them in this deal do they have an actual list of names they can choose from in the future or are there just parameters of the types of guys? Thanks!
Keith Law: In this deal I assume there’s a list for each team – you can take 2 of these 5.

Thomas: Your ranking of my team’s prospects isn’t as favorable as some other media outlets’. Therefore, I will choose to assume yours must be wrong. Definitely no confirmation bias here.
Keith Law: Every year.

Jake: I’m curious about what you heard about Seth Corry to jump him into your Top 100. I don’t believe he ever made it to the alternate camp so not even that meager bit of playing time last year.
Keith Law: Instructs.

Reverend Cory: Thanks for all your hard work Keith! Long winded question here. I grew to appreciate and generally love the use of analytics in the game over the past 15 years, but the last 2-3 I’ve started to sour on how organizations use them. Seems like we now have a league where every team is run like a hedge fund. It provides a great ROI for the owners, but it’s taken a toll on my enjoyment for the game. Do you think there is a solution for this? Thanks again.
Keith Law: MLB is set up as an effective profit machine in which it is no longer necessary for teams to win to make money.
Keith Law: I don’t know how you fix that other than creating incentives for teams to win.

MannyKay: I’ve never seen any mention of The Strokes on your music lists. They’re easily my favorite band of the 2000s. Are you not a fan?
Keith Law: Not really. Not not a fan, but I don’t find their music that interesting.

Ben (MN): Keith, I appreciate your willingness to discuss your own experiences with mental health. My wife has struggled to control anxiety, and often has trouble sleeping more than 5-6 hours a night (or less), largely due to her anxiety. The problem can spiral out of control at times, with poor sleep leading to anxiety about sleep, leading to more poor sleep, leading to more anxiety in daily life, etc. It seems to be at least partially genetic as her mom had a similar experience. She has been reluctant to seek help, largely because she is worried they will recommend medication, which she doesn’t want. Do you have any advice for positively encouraging people who may be reluctant to seek help for anxiety/mental health needs?
Keith Law: The most significant point I would make to your wife is that there are many medications available for GAD, and they are effective for many people at low doses that have limited side effects. I have been on SSRIs for over 8 years. I was also worried about starting one, worried that it would change my personality (it did, sort of, but for the better!) or that it would dull my thinking (it has not). I understand the hesitancy, but medication for my anxiety has been an unmitigated positive.

Jake: Have you heard anything more on how teams will organize their non full season prospects without the short season leagues? Any chance we see teams evolve towards 2 complex league teams mirroring hi and lo A ball?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s what will happen, which I think is kind of stupid in that there are communities out there that would gladly host these teams and allow someone to make a little money off attendance while baseball continued to build the national fan base, but instead they’re going to run twice as many teams in AZ and FL in the middle of the summer when it’s a thousand fucking degrees outside and all those players will play in front of no fans.

Arnold: Although the pandemic hospital rates are falling, it still seems like a bad idea to be opening spring training so soon.  MLB proposed pushing back the start, but the players objected and MLB caved.  I am pro-player on most disputes with management, but the players seem short-sighted on this.
Keith Law: The players didn’t object; they held to the terms of the collectively bargained agreement. I do think the season should be pushed back, but I don’t blame the players on this.

Arty: Reports are that Nolan Gorman is going to get a position switch now that Arenado and Goldschmidt have the corners locked down for a few years.. Can he handle 2B or is more likely going to have to move to LF?
Keith Law: I’d say right field.

Eric: Wader Franco+Fernando Tatis Jr+Ronald Acuña+Juan Soto=baseball is in good hands
Keith Law: Yes, if MLB gets more serious about marketing its nonwhite players. Especially those whose first language isn’t English. I think Tatis should be on the cover of everything, in every commercial, and to be fair I’m seeing more of him out there in the non-baseball world than I can remember seeing previous Latino stars, but MLB has to build massive campaigns around these guys.

Guest: Hi Keith, I’m wondering, if at all, how do certain teams developmental infrastructure impact your rankings? For example if a pitcher with the Rays get the benefit of the doubt more than say the Cubs who haven’t developed a pitcher in what seems like decade. I’m assuming evaluators like yourself would say not at all, but even subconciously
Keith Law: No, you can’t do that because any player can change organizations at any time (like Khalil Lee!). The player evaluations are all team-agnostic.

MannyKay: Based on your positive comments about Jahmai Jones’ potential, is it fair to say the Orioles won that trade in your opinion?
Keith Law: Yes, no-brainer for them. I love Jones and think he’ll thrive there.

Chamaco: Apologies if he is on your top 100 list or graduated off of it (and I just missed this), but I was wondering what you thought about Michael Kopech’s potential this year and in the future? If you Google “Michael Kopech,” you find a lot of non-baseball related articles, which can make it more challenging to find good information on him.
Keith Law: He’s on the top 100.

Matt: FYI- Many board games, including some on your Top 100, are buy 2 get 1 free at Target and Amazon today.
Keith Law: I’m looking at the amazon list now – from the BOGO list, I would recommend Splendor, Ticket to Ride, Blokus, Castles of Burgundy, and King of Tokyo.

Chris P: While I think Cavan Biggio is at least deserving of a roster spot, I really think the Jays should try to move him now while his value is likely going to be at its highest. The fact he struggles against quality fastballs is concerning.
Keith Law: It’s fatal. He can’t hit what is now an average major-league fastball. That’s why his best month in the majors has been September – he sees lower-quality pitching and pads the stats against them. I agree, I would shop him now, but to be honest, most other teams see the same flaws. His value is very low.

xxx(yyy): anything specific on the valentines menu for this weekend?
Keith Law: I haven’t planned that yet … I’ve got some CSA options still here and will figure something out around whatever veg I haven’t used elsewhere yet. I have a few ideas at least.

Jose: Do expect fans to be allowed at the minor leagues games this season ?
Keith Law: I do not, and if we’re not mostly vaccinated I don’t want fans at the games even (or especially) if they allow scouts and media.

Dee Arby: What are your thoughts on how we can become a more intellectual society? Or is that just a pipe dream and the masses will always be extremely gullible?
Keith Law: Greater investment in public education. Unfortunately we’re heading the other way, with huge dark-money efforts undermining public education (funded in part by the Dbacks’ owners) or trying to push right-wing ideologies into schools.

Rodney: Loved reading your Jays list this morning. How do you think time at the alt site changes a timeline for a player like Gabriel Moreno? The hitting approach seems advanced for his age, but catching takes time. Could he start at High-A, but see AA this year with a mid-2022 timeline, whether it’s in Toronto or elsewhere via trade?
Keith Law: Yes, I’d say that’s a possible-optimistic timeline.

Chris P: There were a few goons in the comments of an article on The Athletic about the health and safety protocols MLB and the PA agreed on, that were saying this is stupid because it’s all based on fear of something that isn’t *really* that dangerous. Regardless of if they are correct (they aren’t), how can people not see that this is also a huge financial issue. Imagine a player, staff, ump, or someone associated with them dies from Covid when it could have been prevented or at a minimum, addressed by the league like this. The money they’d have to pay out is worth way more than just a few health and safety rules.
Keith Law: Or, if you want to be really callous, the lost productivity when there’s a community outbreak, with associated quarantining, caused by MLB activity.

Santaspirt: I know you look back on previous top 100 lists you make and are always trying to improve your evaluations. You mention specifically undervaluing Goldschmidt as a prospect and using that example to evaluate Hoskins. The majors is littered with players who never made a top 100 – are there any other types you’ve noticed that are being undervalued at the moment? Types who don’t look like much but consistently break in to the show?
Keith Law: You may notice in a lot of my writeups this year acknowledgments of players who are under six feet but still project as big leaguers, even as stars (Corbin Carroll). I think that industry bias is still strong.
Keith Law: I mean, if Carroll was 6’3″, he goes top 3.

Nolan: I’m curious why Bauer seems to be causing such a clear divide within the baseball fandom. The most generous read of his behavior is he’s a troll. That’s just who he is and the online presence he’s cultivated, regardless of your take on it. But people seemed to have reacted so strongly to writers just pointing out that he has a history of behavior that any club would have to consider when deciding if they should sign him. Is that the main issue, that what some view as “censorship” or “cancel culture” is really just due diligence on a guy someone is about to pay an obscene amount of money to? Wouldn’t any club *rather* their 40m a year pitcher not also be an internet troll?
Keith Law: I do think some of his fans view this as cancel culture stuff, but I would be far more concerned that, given the chance to acknowledge his history of bullying on social media and promising to learn from the feedback, he chose to deny it all. That unwillingness to take responsibility for his words and actions does not speak well for the accountability he will have to take as a player and member of a new team.

Zac: Can you explain the difference between a #1 and #2 and #3 pitcher is?I think it would help me understand your prospect breakdown and why a pitchers ceiling is where it is?
Keith Law: I think of them in tiers. There should be about 15 aces (#1 starters) in any given year, give or take a few. Each tier below that – 2, 3, 4 – would have about 30 guys, one per team. There might be 30 Opening Day starters, guys who are first in their teams’ rotations, but they’re not all truly #1 starters who’d be aces on a majority of teams.

Alex: Does Tevin Vavra have enough of an arm to play 2b (one of the Os blogs had concerns of him playing 2b, much less filling in at SS)?
Keith Law: Yes.

Chris P: It has been pretty tough since the holidays with the weather and tighter restrictions, so I just want to say thanks for keeping up with the prospect rankings and giving us something to look forward to. My interest in baseball feels like it’s been waning, so this is coming at a great time.
Keith Law: Here’s hoping we get games soon for us to watch and argue about.

Aaron C.: Any new recipes/cookbook endeavors in klawland?
Keith Law: Cookbooks no, but the CSA has pushed us to try a lot of new recipes. This has been a huge hit – pasta with sausage, broccoli rabe, and chickpeas. I used chicken sausage and about 50% more pecorino romano than the recipe called for.

xxx(yyy): wife and i are going to go back and watch some classic movies she hasn’t seen – any comedies you think that stand the test of time?
Keith Law: His Girl Friday.

Dan: Thanks for that chat even though it’s so obvious you hate my team. I was surprised by what seems like a light return for Benintendi. Had the bottom really fallen out that much for him? Do you expect a return to the performance from even his rookie season?
Keith Law: He seems like he needs swing help, maybe something significant, and/or the Red Sox just felt they couldn’t help him develop any further. I’m shocked – I thought he’d be far better than this, at least hitting for consistently high averages even if he didn’t have 20+ HR power.

Tristan: Reading your org rankings, I’m struck by how quickly the Jays have rebuilt. They started after teams like Baltimore and Detroit who still seem years away from being years away. Is the credit deserved org-wide, or are there key personnel you look at driving this success?
Keith Law: It’s org-wide IMO but I also think their international scouting department deserves to be singled out for their substantial contributions.

Aaron C.: When you penned your “joined the Athletic” piece, you mentioned possibly writing about labor relations IIRC. Still in the cards for you/your editor?
Keith Law: Yes, hoping to get to that soon, now that we’re in CBA negotiation time.

Jon Weisman: Hi Keith. Would you be able to name your five favorite comic-strip characters of all time? (BTW, I’m not strict about it being exactly five.)
Keith Law: Opus, Steve Dallas, Hodgepodge, Portnoy, Calvin.

Dee Arby: Hitters who make the majors by age 20 usually turn out to be stars.  Is this the year Devers goes full bonkers?
Keith Law: He was pretty good in 2019. I’m still a buyer.

PJ: any chance the new CBA will allow players to hit free agency earlier? Seems like front offices are more weary of giving big contracts to 30/31yr olds, and that is what is driving these slow and underwhelming hot stove winters
Keith Law: I’d love to see that. Owners supported it in 1994 – they tried to force through much earlier free agency, I think after 4 years – but I don’t think they would do so now.

Pat D: I feel like this is the least interested I’ve been in the Oscars since before I became capable of seeing movies independently, even though it seems like I can watch all of the contenders through various streaming services.  I’m not sure if this is due to not being constantly bombarded with trailers and promotion due to lack of theater-going, or just general malaise from the year of COVID.  What’s your interest level this year?
Keith Law: Interested but we haven’t had time to see enough contenders yet, and the fact that the overall favorite, Nomadland, is still trying to do theatrical runs not only dims my interest but actively pisses me off. There’s a pandemic going on right now. Nobody should be watching movies in theaters.

Eric: Is Donald trump the worst American alive?
Keith Law: High bar to clear.

Jason (D.C.): If you’re the Rays, what do you do with middle infield when Wander Franco ready? Should they trade Adames or move to 2B? I assume Brujan will be there.
Keith Law: I bet Adames ends up traded. Not a knock on him, but he’d have more value in trade than he would as a 3b for them.

Tom: Can Brian goodwin be a league average OF for the pirates?
Keith Law: No. I’d bet on Oliva over Goodwin, although I think Oliva is a food 4th OF.

Todd Boss: In all your time ranking organizational farm systems, what would you say were your individual best and worst systems?  Like, 2018 Atlanta or 2019 San Diego as best and maybe Baltimore 2018 as worst?
Keith Law: The Angels had the worst ever, maybe five years ago. This year’s Rays’ system would make my top 3. San Diego 2019 is probably the best.

Casey: Do you think the Reds offseason was bad enough that they should look into kick starting a rebuild? Suarez and Gray look like great trade assets, and with the coming compensatory picks, that could move the Farm System in the top 10 in my opinion.
Keith Law: I’d trade Suarez to try to fill shortstop, move Senzel back to the infield, and still hope to compete this year.

xxx(yyy): What prospect were you the most “sure” on that ended up missing? Why? Assuming that guys like Josh Hamilton doesn’t really count since his issues were off the field-based
Keith Law: Justin Smoak.
Keith Law: It wasn’t just me – I remember pro scouts seeing him in his first go-round in pro ball, saying how did this guy get to the 11th pick.

Adam: Should the Padres regret not delaying Tatis’ service time? He’s already two years closer to FA without even playing 162 games.
Keith Law: I don’t think they regret it one bit after that playoff run in 2020.

JL: Assuming they have rotational health this year (a big assumption), what happens with Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint and Bryse Wilson? Especially for Wright and Touki, proving they can pitch in AAA isn’t the problem. If feels like a waste to have them not getting big league innings. Will it hurt development to have them pitch in Gwinnett for most of another season?
Keith Law: I’d put Touki in a longman role. He needs reps in the majors and that’s the best way to get them.

Sim: You mentioned in your last chat that Oneil Cruz’s legal issues had no bearing on him dropping off of your top-100. Was there something specific in his performance in the Dominican this past year that caused you to drop him 30+ spots in the rankings? I’m assuming the Pirates list will clarify some things.
Keith Law: There is no “dropping.” This isn’t Billboard where players move up or down with a bullet. I start each list from scratch.
Keith Law: I couldn’t tell you without looking where O’Neil Cruz was a year ago on my rankings. I can tell you I really don’t think he’s a shortstop.

Eric: Is a regular-stuffed Oreo still an Oreo?
Keith Law: That is the only Oreo.

Scully: In the Red Sox ’21 prospect rankings, you mention Dalbec could wind up on the roster depending what they do with Devers.  Would that be a positional move to 1B for Rafael?
Keith Law: Yes, I know that’s been discussed.

Ed: What do you see as probability of a Vlad Jr breakout this year? He seems to be more committed after his down, by his standards,  last season and seeing his contemporaries explode on the scene.
Keith Law: It’s really about the swing. He’s a bright enough kid to figure it out on his own but my understanding is he’s not someone they’re going to be able to take aside for a whole swing optimization.

nb: Keith – Mazel Tov on the wedding!  Glad something good came out of 2020!  I get that the Phillies system is bad, but do you think there’s hope for it to move up?  Seems like the oast 2 drafts have been good and they have some younger guys like Kendall Simmons.  Thanks!
Keith Law: I agree. Also one of their best prospects, Luis Garcia, had a horrible 2019 (not entirely his fault) and didn’t get 2020 to reestablish himself.

Scully: I’m sure you’ll write up an analysis of the KC-BOST-NYM trade… any quick thoughts you’d like to share here?
Keith Law: I won’t write it up, not with 3 players’ identities still unknown.

JL: No question, but just wanted to say that I re-read Smart Baseball this winter and am halfway through Inside Game and they’re two of the best books I’ve read in a long time. I even got a co-worker who is marginally interested in baseball to read Smart Baseball and he loved it.
Keith Law: Thank you. You can pre-order the paperback edition of The Inside Game, due out April 6th.
Keith Law: Sorry, I suddenly needed to eat some Oreos.

Paul: What does GM do all day? Not sarcastic, but when they’re saying we’re monitoring the trade market etc. does that mean they’re on the phone with 29 other GMs just asking if they’re buying or selling? If you’re Al Avila and you’re know you’re not making any big moves in the offseason – what are they doing all week?
Keith Law: Running an entire organization. The job of a GM is a lot more than just player acquisitions.

Jim Ed: Thoughts on the Red Sox returns in the Beni trade?
Keith Law: I like PTBNL #2 more than PTBNL #1 or PTBNL #3.

Jeb: No desire to have this posted. Just wanted to say thanks, as an Athletic subscriber. Love the content. I used your signup code so hopefully you get credit for my account in some manner.
Keith Law: I do get ‘credit,’ at least in the sense that the Athletic keeps track of such things, and I do too to see what readers particularly like or don’t like.

Ridley: I’ve seen you list “True Faith” as a perfect song and I wholeheartedly agree. Are there any others on your list? *stares in “Under The Milky Way”*
Keith Law: Great song as well.

Don Gately: the O’Neill Cruz situation just kind of went away and it seems like he’ll just be back with the club for spring. Was anything released about how/why it didn’t go further?
Keith Law: He was exonerated. And most importantly alcohol was not a factor.

Eric: @Ben – I have severe anxiety disorder. It took a full-on breakdown for me to seek help, and I wish I had sooner. Lexapro (for anxiety) and thc/cbd (For sleep) have been godsends.
Keith Law: I can’t vouch for the weed part personally but I appreciate your comments here.

John Olerud: Thank you so much for your response. If there is time for a follow up and continuing on with what you said: even if the Ms or any top-heavy farm system lacks depth, if they were to “really hit” on, say, four or more of those top 7 (given the overall quality of that bunch), would  you say they might be in a better position to compete down the road than some of the teams you rank above? That is, given that generally teams are trying to get as much value or WAR as they can out of each key position on the field, I guess I’m just wondering or trying to calibrate how to assess quality vs. quantity in a albeit unrealistic vacuum where every prospect were to reach their “future value” potential.
Keith Law: OK, but then why are we assuming the M’s will hit on 4 of those top 7 but not assuming a similar ‘hit’ rate for any clubs around them?

J. hawley: IF YOU KEEP CANCELING AND SILENCING ME I WILL KEEP GOING ON NATIONAL NEWS SHOWS TO TELL YOU HOW SILENCED I AM BEING!
Keith Law: I worry he’s going to end up some sort of hero to the alt-white and will end up a strong candidate in the 2024 primaries, which we’ve now seen, at least on the GOP side, are structured in a way that favors extreme candidates.

Dan: You called Mick Abel the best HS arm in last year’s draft, but he finished in your ‘just missed’ range. Is it especially difficult for a HS pitcher to make the top 100 just due to the proximity to the majors? Or was it a less than stellar HS pitcher class?
Keith Law: In The Inside Game I went through the history of high school pitchers in the draft, especially in the first round, and their lower success rate relative to other classes of players. I incorporated that into my draft rankings and am doing so as well in my pro rankings. It’s about avoiding bias in the rankings – I love Abel and think he’s a stud, but the base rate for HS pitchers just out of the draft is low.

Perry’s Relief Core: Was Jordyn Adams anywhere near your Top 100? Thanks for taking the time, Keith.
Keith Law: No. 80 runner, 80 athlete, but if you put him in the majors now it might be a 30 hit tool.

Kelsey: How diverse is the scouting world? How many women are in the industry?
Keith Law: Few women, but when I worked for the Jays I don’t believe there were any women in baseball operations jobs other than office roles. Now there are a few dozen, I think. We’re at the point where a team hiring a woman as a scout is no longer notable, and that’s great. What we need now is more GMs who come from underrepresented minority groups, and more managers too.

Uli Jon: I always mean to tell you that the Athletic comments section is not the cesspool those things tend to be, not vintage Deadspin but usually well thought out and some good interaction with writers.  Then the “Keith Law hates my team” brigade came out yesterday.  Hoo boy.
Keith Law: Yep. I didn’t even look at the comment thread yesterday, because if I want whines I’ll go to the liquor store.

Jason: Can Corbin Burnes be a Cy Young GUY?
Keith Law: Yes.

Morris: Been following you a long time, and my two favorite accusations of bias against you all time are 1) you get both “Klaw hates the Jays because he used to work for them” and “Klaw overrates the Jays because he used to work for them” and 2) “Klaw hates Lavarnway because he went to Yale.” What are your favorites?
Keith Law: I forgot about Lavarnway. The people who insist I hate the Yankees are extra-special, since I grew up a Yankee fan and my parents & sister are still Yankee fans, and my grandmother was one until she was about 98 or so. Also, anyone crying about East Coast bias really needs a pacifier.
Keith Law: My patience for these complaints declines every year. Grow up already. I do not have the capacity to hold all of these supposed biases against teams in my head. My cognitive load is high enough as it is.

JT: Are you still very much hopeful for Tirso Ornelas? Do we just have to be patient until we have some game action for him?
Keith Law: Yes.

PJ: What do you think would be the key to getting us consistent games under 3 hours?
Keith Law: Fewer commercial breaks. No commercial breaks for pitching changes. And raise the bottom of the strike zone.
Keith Law: We’re not getting to 2.5 hour games, though. That’s over.

Jason: When ranking farm systems, do you assign points (e.g., players’ FV, probability, etc.), or is it more of a feel?
Keith Law: It’s feel. Any point system would be arbitrary at its heart.

Jill: Do you own any Bitcoin? Or any crypto? Thoughts on it?
Keith Law: No. I doubt its long-term value, and it is an environmental disaster.

Uli Jon: Forgot to say…congratulations to you and your bride.  Best wishes to the new family.
Keith Law: Thank you. Approaching our one month anniversary (menoversary?) already!

Jimmy: Any good deals to sign up for The Athletic you have in your pocket?  Looking forward to signing up!
Keith Law: theathletic.com/klaw is the current promotion.

Guest: Re Austin Wells- I thought you list a prospect at a position where you think he’ll play but you list him as a catcher despite your (apparently majority view) he can’t catch. Where does he play- RF? 1B?
Keith Law: No, I list guys where they play now. Not sure where he’ll best profile.

Monte: Just to second what you said for Ben, I resisted getting help for depression/anxiety until this past year (I’m 37) for the same reasons (changing my personality, becoming a Xanax Zombie, etc.).  It’s nothing like that.  Outdated stereotypes.  All it does it let my brain quiet down and not freak out about, like, laundry.
Keith Law: Exactly. I could really get anxious about some ridiculous things. Or, frequently, nothing.

Don Gately: Plans to read A Children’s Bible? Loved the voice
Keith Law: I had not heard about this book but it looks interesting.

Tom C: The team hate accusations have been hilarious as usual. Take the Orioles fans – I looked it up, the team has made the playoffs 3 times this century. They have 6 total winning seasons. What have they been so happy about that they get mad because your assessment doesn’t match other reviews?
Keith Law: Also, the expectation that a team that has completely ignored international scouting – you know, where the best player in the NL came from, where the #1 and #3 prospects on my top 100 came from as well as the guys at 16 and 19 and 20 and 24 and 25 and 25 – for a decade, and that has zero international prospects of their own signing in their top 20, would have a top ten system is delusional.

John: Friends in Baltimore are worried the O’s are eventually going to leave, with Nashville as a potential destination. Have you heard these rumors and, if so, any sense of it actually happening?
Keith Law: I’ve never heard that. Only one team has relocated in my lifetime, and that was an extraordinary situation. MLB does not want to allow franchise relocations without an extremely high bar to clear. They just want to use the relocations as a threat.

Tom: Can singer be a good number 3? He’s got the command for it i feel like
Keith Law: He doesn’t have the command and he doesn’t have the third pitch for it.

Appa Yip Yip: Cancel culture isn’t real. Anyone who claims to have been “cancelled” is just experiencing consequences for the first time and they still get to publish self indulgent screeds on the opinion pages of the new york times. The literal opposite of having their voice taken away.
Keith Law: I agree. Bari Weiss got “cancelled,” even though her entire career started with her trying to cancel professors she didn’t like, and she was rewarded with a job at the New York Post. It’s all a giant grift, pandering to the alt-white. And it works.

G: Nick Gonzales’ profile (hitter friendly college environment, small sample strong performance in the cape,) gives me bad Kevin Newman vibes. Is there concern his bat won’t ever play enough for 2b?
Keith Law: Newman was a better runner and played shortstop better in college than Gonzales did. I would say Gonzales shows more with his present hit tool, though.

Michael: Do surprise players that make it big ever make you recalibrate how you look at things?  Being a Brewers fan, it seems like most of our high rated prospects tank, but we get gems out of left field like Brandon Woodruff (though I will admit you were earlier on him than most).
Keith Law: Yes, they do, and I appreciate you remembering I had Woodruff on a top 100 (and I’m still hanging on to Zack Brown, pecan pie, and homemade wine).

Max: Keith, you’ve mentioned “CSA” a couple of times in the chat.  What is that?
Keith Law: Community Supported Agriculture.

addoeh: If you had a wedding reception with a large group of friends/family, what songs would have made your “do not play” list?
Keith Law: Oh, we had one. Maybe I’ll publish our Spotify wedding playlist?

Brian: I havent been able to join in a while and wanted your opinion on something that came up a few months back – there was an inaccurate statistics floating around social media about suicides and a line about the Prevention Hotline. I hate made up stats as much as anyone but at what point does the message (call the Hotline) become greater than the means by which it went viral (the made up stat)?
Keith Law: The message wasn’t call the hotline, though. The message was “end the lockdowns.” And it was manipulative folderol from people whose real interest was not saving lives, but making money.

Eric: Just want to send prayers and love to Pedro Gomez’s family, friends, loved ones and anyone who knew or followed him. What a horrible loss.
Keith Law: Horrible. Absolutely unfathomable. We have lost way too many people just in our little corner of the sports world in the last twelve months.

Cryptologist: How is crypto an environmental disaster?
Keith Law: Mining bitcoin uses 121 TWh per year, almost as much electricity as the entire country of Norway. And it has no societal value at all.

Pat: In regards to international scouting “Where the best player in the NL came from” doesn’t narrow it down enough. Tatis? Soto? Acuna? That, alone, is reason enough to scout internationally, no?
Keith Law: You would think. Of the four fan bases most whiny about my org rankings, three are fans of teams – the White Sox, the Tigers, and the Orioles – who have gotten little to nothing from the international side.

The Sloth: Was there a Phish song in your wedding playlist? and why was it “Waste”?
Keith Law: “Heavy Things” and “Bouncing Around the Room.”
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week, but I will try to do another one next Thursday once the top 20s have all run. Thank you all so much for reading and subscribing and for all of your questions. The AL will run this week and the NL next. Stay safe and please wear your masks – two masks, really – as we’re finally seeing the light at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel.