number9dream.

David Mitchell’s second novel, number9dream, is beautifully written but the most derivative of the five novels of his that I’ve read so far. Mitchell is an unabashed fan of the works of Haruki Murakami, but here he picks all of the wrong parts of Murakami’s works to mimic, with a story that never comes together and ends on a note that would make even less sense if you haven’t read his first novel, Ghostwritten.

number9dream is ostensibly the story of Eiji Miyake, a 20-year-old student who was raised by his mother and later his grandparents, and who sets out from his rural island home to Tokyo to try to track down his father’s identity. Along the way, he has a series of improbable encounters with yakuza, hackers, detectives, and, of course, a beautiful woman in whom he takes an interest. Mitchell divides the book into eight chapters – the ninth is the ending – each of which roughly comprises one of those adventures in Eiji’s quest to figure out who his father is and force some sort of meeting with him.

I enjoyed Murakami’s two big novels, The Wind-Up Bird Chronicle and Kafka on the Shore, tremendously, even acknowledging some of Murakami’s flaws as a writer (such as his inability or unwillingness to write compelling female characters). His use of magical realism and creation of immersive dreamscapes make for incredibly compelling reads that I find I can’t put down – but when he hasn’t been able to cast that spell, as in Killing Commendatore, it becomes tedious, like you’ve seen behind the magician’s curtain and realized how every trick is done.

number9dream feels more like the latter kind of Murakami novel, probably because Mitchell is trying too hard to emulate another writer, when, as would be clear in some of his later novels, he’s best when he’s just being David Mitchell. The series of events that befall Eiji are so improbable, often with over-the-top violence that borrows from Murakami’s worst instincts in that department – even those two Murakami novels I most enjoyed have one scene of horrifying violence apiece – that I couldn’t get caught up in any parts of the story or, most importantly, the major mystery of who Eiji’s father is or whether he’ll find him.

Mitchell’s use of dream/fantasy sequences early in the novel is also offputting, and he just drops that gimmick well before the halfway point. Eiji’s crush on Ai, a server at the coffee shop he visits at the start of the novel while following a lead on his father through the lawyer who has coordinated payments from his father for his care and upbringing, is fine, but the way she reciprocates doesn’t feel realistic at all to the character or women in general, falling into white-knight fantasy territory as well. There isn’t a well-written woman in this book, in fact, which I don’t think is typical of Mitchell – but it is typical of Murakami and the latter’s worst trait as an author.

I’ve read five of Mitchell’s eight novels so far, and this is easily his worst. It’s derivative, but worse, Eiji and his quest are just not compelling storylines – more so once it becomes clear early in the novel that if he finds his father at all, it’s not likely to be a satisfying resolution for him or for the reader. Eiji looking for his father is a good start on narrative greed, but Mitchell doesn’t keep it going, because ultimately Eiji’s reason for trying to find his father’s identity appears to be nothing more than curiosity – it’s not money, it’s not a strong emotional need, it’s just a mystery this goofy kid wants to solve. Maybe that’s uncharitable to Eiji or Mitchell, but I know the author can craft more gripping plots than this one, yet the most interesting parts here are the non sequiturs that hint at his other books (such as the Voorman Problem). I’ve got three Mitchell novels left to read and I imagine this will end up at the bottom of my rankings once I’m through.

Next up: I’m many books behind in reviews, but right now I’m reading both Barack Obama’s A Promised Land and Tim Grierson’s This is How You Make a Movie.

Klawchat 3/11/21.

Subscribers to The Athletic can see my list of prospects I can’t wait to see live in 2021, with one or two names for all 30 MLB teams.

Keith Law: No one gets hurt if they don’t act funny. Klawchat.

Dave: Got your tickets for the opening day superspreader event in Arlington?
Keith Law: I have to say I’m not keen to go to Texas at all unless I’m fully vaccinated. It’s a problem with multiple first rounders in the state.

Max G: Hey Keith, hope your first ski trip was both fun and painless!
Keith Law: It was actually my second ski trip, but my first in 31 years – so long that Brodie, the ski resort where I went in 1990, has been closed for over a decade. My wife is a much more avid skier and skied circles around me, but I didn’t get hurt and eventually finished on some short blue runs. Still working on stopping, though.

Eddie: How do you view the depth of hitting in this upcoming draft? It seems to lack offensive star power from the outside
Keith Law: I think that’s accurate. There could be a corner bat or two who emerge as late first round types like Aaron Sabato last year, where they really have to hit given their positional limitations, but I’m not confident in any of those names yet.

Isaac: On pure upside, is it Leiter and Lawler in the draft? Is Lawler a 1.1 upside type of player? Haven’t had a chance to see much about him. Thanks
Keith Law: I think most scouts would put Rocker and Hill in there too. And if you really mean pure upside, there are guys like James Wood who have enormous ceilings but also could fail to get out of A-ball because their hit tools might not be there.

Isaac: I’ve read that Tyler soderstrom looked good in the fall at instructs, was there anything in particular that you know of that stood out? Would you keep him behind the plate?
Keith Law: I’ve heard he hit extremely well and looked like he had very little chance to remain behind the plate. I’d probably give him a year there first before making a decision – usually I say to leave players at their toughest positions as long as you can, but if he’s not going to catch OR you just think his bat is so advanced that catching is going to slow his development, just move him to third base.

Tyler: In cleveland we have been hearing about valera’s swing for a few years but haven’t been able to see it in person yet. Does he have high upside offensive potential or his it more of hometown wishing? Or Planez for that matter. We seem to not be able to groom OF bats like we do other positions
Keith Law: Valera does have high upside as a hitter and was on my top 100 because of that. Alexfri Planez is much less of a known commodity because he’s barely played – I believe he broke a hamate bone after just a handful of games in 2019, so he’s barely been scouted. That injury should be completely healed, with strength returned, by now.

Tim (Columbus): Who is the better offensive player between Rutchsman and Torkleson?
Keith Law: I think Torkelson. But it’s not an enormous difference.

Jerry: Do you prefer an assigned closer, or is it better in your opinion to have everyone available when needed, not so much time specific?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s this black or white. I don’t think an assigned closer is necessary or optimal, especially since it would often require a pitcher to work too often on little to no rest. I don’t want my best reliever limited to one inning, and I don’t want him throwing three days in a row or four times in five days. However, knowing who you’re going to use in what situation is helpful for a manager beforehand. You don’t want him making too many battlefield decisions – some things you can plan before the games, so you do so, and then when the unexpected happens then you make those spur of the moment decisions.

Paul: If the Mets sign Lindor long term would Mauricio have enough bat to justify a move to 3rd?
Keith Law: I believe he will, although he’s not there yet, and it’s quite likely that Mauricio will be the better defender than Lindor by the time he reaches the majors (when Lindor will probably be 29 or 30).

Steven: Who has more star potential: Austin Hendrick or Luis Matos?
Keith Law: Hendrick might have more star potential but Matos is more likely to become a star.

Mindful: In a perfect world scenario where a player hits every aspect of their potential, who would be the best player in this upcoming draft? Is it Leiter, is that why you have him at 1, or is he more of a combination of potential and most likely to fulfill it? I suppose I always view a HS SS/CF as that “most potential” type.  Thanks for your time
Keith Law: Leiter has the ceiling/floor combination teams usually want at 1-1 now. I don’t think he’s the only or obvious choice at 1, and he may very well end up at 2 or lower in future rankings. I will say that last weekend, according to a scout I know who saw Vandy, Rocker was the better of the two, with a plus-plus slider he didn’t have the first two weekends, while Leiter’s breaking ball was closer to average. So it’s going to fluctuate.

addoeh: Who wins an Elmo-off, you or Passan?
Keith Law: I will put my Elmo and Cookie Monster impressions up against anybody.

Ben (MN): I recently participated in a virtual cocktail class to support a local bar. We made daiquiries (which I didn’t know are supposed to be non-blended) and the bartender talked all about the different types of rum. I didn’t realize there were such differences between Cuban, Jamaican, French, etc. I know you’re a rum fan, but do you have a favorite style of rum or any favorite rum-based cocktails? The bartender recommended Plantation 3 Stars as a good “workhorse” rum for newbies.
Keith Law: Plantation 3 stars is a blended white rum, which I generally avoid because it has less of the caramel notes I appreciate in rum. For mixing, I like anything aged in the 2-8 year range. Appleton has some excellent, inexpensive rums in that category, as does El Brugal. For sipping, I’d go with at least 10 years of aging. They mellow out substantially past that point. Unaged rum tastes too much like medicine.

Guest: In your write up of the top draft prospects, do you believe the top few are relatively close together or is Leiter (and maybe others) a cut above. I ask because I’m curious if the Pirates will try for an underslot deal if there is a relatively similar group at the top to have money to use elsewhere in the draft. Thanks!
Keith Law: I might do that, if they’re taking one of those top four guys – or someone else who emerges as a worthy 1-1 candidate. What you don’t want to see is them reaching down for someone who isn’t 1-1 good, like the Phillies did with Moniak in 2016, just to go over-slot with later picks.

RebWiseau: Sometimes there is a gap between how fans of a team view a particular prospect and how prospect evaluators view the same player (for example, the Red Sox fan community is much higher on Jarren Duran than you and your colleagues). Have you noticed any sort of profile for players like this where the fans are more excited than the industry about the future of the player?
Keith Law: Yes, they tend to be local media favorites. Local reporters write about these players, especially if they’re getting good info from player development, but fans don’t run that through the filter where every team likes their own players more than the industry does. Sometimes that player turns out to be every bit as good as the team says – Paul Goldschmidt comes to mind. Usually they don’t.
Keith Law: and I like Duran, BTW.

davealden53: Dee Strange-Gordon is making a case to be the Reds’ shortstop.  (Not a difficult case to make given that Kyle Farmer is the incumbent.)  Can Strange-Gordon regain value or is his bat gone for good?
Keith Law: I’d be more surprised if he can play shortstop. He was never great there in the first place and he’s how many years gone?

Steve Guitar: Intermediate guitarist getting back into it. Have you suggestions for both acoustic, acoustic-electric, and electric  Mitchell gear and any guitar pedals?  I remember you had a Mitchell acoustic no cutaway, they seem to make great valued instruments.  Thx for your help, I’d like to get back to playing regularly, (and getting my second vaccine today, f*ck yeah!)
Keith Law: I wish I could help but I own very little gear … I love playing but have never felt like I could justify spending much money on it.

Rich: Will you be doing a breakout candidates column this year?
Keith Law: Yes, it’ll run this week. I do that column every year, and predictions too.

davealden53: I know that you don’t consider players like Ha-seong Kim in your prospect rankings, but do you have any insights about how he will adjust to Major League pitching?
Keith Law: I heard quite a bit of skepticism about his ability to make enough contact to be a regular here when talking to scouts who saw him live or evaluated him on video. I’ve never seen him in person.

Chip: Klaw (kaw!, kaw!), do you think Rutschman can hit in MLB this year?
Keith Law: It would depend on your standard. Hit enough to be an average regular? Yeah, I’ll buy that. Hit enough to be a star in 2021? Seems optimistic.

Ben (MN): In this era, I don’t understand how teams can have an “edge” or be so much better than other teams in certain areas, other than in short stints. For instance, the Athletic had an article this week about whether some teams are better at increasing velocity than others. It now seems commonplace for teams to target staff from these smart organizations, and it would follow that those staff bring knowledge of that “edge” with them. When teams do find an edge, do they usually have some kind of internal strategy to keep that edge as long as possible?  Do teams just assume that edge is temporary and look for the next competitive advantage?
Keith Law: The last sentence is probably the most accurate but if teams really wanted to retain some of those edges for longer, they’d pay their staff more, rather than shedding staff as so many teams did last year under cover of the pandemic.

John: Thanks for the chat Keith! I have not heard much on Yadier Alvarez since the Dodgers DFA’d him last spring. Is he still with the club or have a future in the majors?
Keith Law: I may be way out of date but I thought he’d walked away. He has – had? – a ridiculously good arm, though.

Noah: Getting my second dose of the vaccine on Monday!  How do we convince the 30% or so anti-vax people to get it?  Herd immunity is usually cited as being achieved at around 90%.  You’re good with the numbers and facts and whatnot.  If only 70% get vaccinated, will those that are vaccinated be safe?
Keith Law: If you’re vaccinated, you’ll be safe from severe illness leading to hospitalization and possibly death. That’s a good outcome, but we aren’t likely to reach enough people without mandates (school & workplace) to get rid of the virus as a regular feature of life. You can be vaccinated and still get a mild case. Also, it’s not that 30% of the population is anti-vaccine; maybe 2-3% are truly anti-vaxxers, but the population as a whole has been fed so much disinformation, with Twitter, Facebook, and Youtube particularly culpable for letting it fester on their services, that people who get all their other shots (or get them for their kids) are now needlessly hesitant over this one.

Chip: Is Kenyon Yovan’s bat impressive enough to make him a prospect at DH?
Keith Law: I don’t think so – enough to be drafted, yes, but not enough to be, say, a top two rounds prospect.

Gums: Taillon seems to be the latest to switch to a shorter arm swing, a la Shane Bieber. Do you believe this lessens the injury risk for pitchers, and does it bode well for Leiter’s future as he has a similar arm path?
Keith Law: I don’t know about injury risk, but it has worked for many pitchers who had trouble repeating longer arm strokes, leading to worse command.

Adam D.: Do you believe the narrative that we have reached a “golden era” for prospects with more potentially high-end, young players in the minors than ever before? Or do you feel like the increased focus on prospects in general have just made a lot more of them known to fans in general, thus making it seem like there are more GUYS out there?
Keith Law: I think prospects are coming into pro ball bigger and stronger than they have at any point in history. That’s probably a big reason.

Phil in the UK: True or False: Counting sacrifice flies against a hitter’s on-base percentage is illogical, and the rule should be changed.
Keith Law: False. It’s completely logical. A sac fly results in an out. It should count as an at bat too.

Arty: Derrick Goold ran an article about how Delvin Perez committed himself to adding muscle and he’s supposed put on 20 pounds since 2019. I was a bit surprised he was invited to major league camp, but apparently reports on his progress are positive. From what you’ve seen of him, would getting stronger and adding weight help put him back into true prospect consideration?
Keith Law: He also has to hit. Yes, he’s had trouble with impact because he’s so small, but really he has to hit for us to have any discussion of his prospect status. Other than his draft spring, which ended with a positive test for a PED, he has never really hit well enough to project as an everyday player.

Noah: If the Mets don’t sign Lindor to an extension ASAP, can we stop pretending like Steve Cohen has done anything fundamentally good or different than the Wilpons?  In fact, he might be actively worse.
Keith Law: I don’t agree with that assessment.

John: Will voting rights actually be preserved prior to 2022?
Keith Law: God I hope so. It’s going to take some actual courage on the part of some Senate Democrats and perhaps a Republican or two.

Ben: Where would the top three arms in this year’s class (Leiter, Rocker, & Hill) rank among the last few pitching classes? Is this trio stronger than some of the last classes of top college arms?
Keith Law: I think they are – they’re at least on par with recent years. Likely better than 2020, definitely better than 2019, 2018, 2017, and 2016.

ChrisP: Is Braves’ Michael Harris a guy or a GUY?
Keith Law: More potential than GUY right now. Has to go out and hit. If he does that, he’s a GUY because of his other tools.

Sean M.: Also, just bought Smart Baseball. Great stuff so far- was fun remembering that twelve months I wondered if Edgardo Alfonso and Rich Aurillia were studs.
Keith Law: Thank you. Alfonzo was a guy I wanted to be better – seemed like he was capable of so much more and then you looked at some slightly advanced stats and realized he just didn’t produce.

Michael: Went down a rabbit hole of a GOP friend’s FB page and she’s trying to tell people the vaccine is dangerous, posting “articles” that link to supposed deaths after getting the vaccine or from the vaccine. Lots of people agreeing with her. Aside from deleting my FB account, do you have any advice for dealing with these types of people?
Keith Law: I would suggest at least an attempt to reason with her, for her own good and the good of your community, but with the expectation that it’ll go nowhere.

Jason: Does the addition of JBJ make the Brewers a slight favorite in the NL Central? I’m still expecting a tight 3 team race.
Keith Law: It helps them, certainly – good to see someone else trying to improve besides the Cardinals. I’d like to see the Brewers flip Garcia for some pitching.

Alan & Lou – Detroit: Give me some good news on the Tigers as a Detroit sports fan. Any chance they don’t finish in last like the Wings, Pistons, and Lions?
Keith Law: They’re very likely to finish last, but you should get a lot of Mize, Manning, Skubal this year, and that’s worth the price of admission.

Shane Bieber: Is skill or durability a bigger roadblock for Triston McKenzie becoming an ace?
Keith Law: Durability.

Concerned Fan: Keith, Yoan Moncada was visibly in pain last season as he played through complications from his COVID-19 experience. Now, he claims that he feels healthy and strong. But how can we be sure that he is not a victim of long-lasting COVID respiratory issues that will prevent him from being a high-level athlete ever again?
Keith Law: We can’t, can we? I didn’t realize he was struggling to that extent but he can’t be the only one.

Andrew Vaughn: Given that Andrew Vaughn is slated to be the White Sox full-time DH this year, how do you think he’ll adjust to MLB pitching? Love him as a prospect but worried that he’ll be overmatched right away.
Keith Law: My one worry would be that he might be too passive early on, and have to adjust that. I don’t think he’s just up there to walk, but that’s a big leap in ball/strike distinctions (and thus in required recognition) from college and a brief stint in A-ball to the majors with a year off in the middle.

Ben: If you had to pick one: Grierson or Leitch?
Keith Law: I’ll never tell.

Tom: Keith – have you ever read Robert Caro’s books on Robert Moses or LBJ? If so, would you recommend them?
Keith Law: I haven’t, because they’re very, very long.

Guest: Where do the Yankees start their top catching prospects in the minors? Breaux and Siegler HiA, Wells in LowA and Gomez back to GCL?
Keith Law: Seigler low A, Wells high A for me. Breaux has been very bad on defense in the majors.

Matt: Should the Jays just start the season with Austin Martin at 3B?
Keith Law: No.

Kevin: I know you dont like player comps. But how unfair are the Durran to Grady Sizemore comps?
Keith Law: Yikes. Wasn’t Sizemore a three-sport athlete in HS?
Keith Law: like, Duran’s a good prospect, but Sizemore was at another level in athleticism. Just couldn’t stay healthy.

Nate: Your thoughts on Cavan Biggio are well known at this point, but offense aside, I can’t be the only one thinking the Jays are crazy for trying to have him play significant innings at 3rd right? Not a scout but I just don’t think he has the arm strength or quickness to play there consistently.
Keith Law: I agree. He was more passable at second.

Jared: So Cleveland is just moving forward with Tito/Antonetti huh…
Keith Law: While I assume people in the organization knew more about Callaway than they’re letting on, we really don’t have good evidence on that yet. I’d like to see a real MLB investigation and then have consequences based on that. Right now we mostly have assumptions and the occasional rumor. I’m sure someone knew. I’d just like to be sure the right people are called to account.

Jim: Hi Keith. More likely to be a true #1 — Ian Anderson or Max Fried?
Keith Law: I lean Fried because he has the better arsenal overall.

Bill: The word is that Gavin Lux has “quieted” his swing and no longer has the throwing yips. Does he seize 2B (or SS if Seager leaves) for the foreseeable future?
Keith Law: Hope so. Was always a fan, still am.

Nate: Would you consider yourself a casual fan of college baseball outside of work? I like it but the lack of pitching depth for the most part can make it hard to watch at times, especially midweek games.
Keith Law: No, because of the tin bats, excessive bunting, and too-frequent late-game pitching changes.

Michael: I get that we all do things for our spouses, #solidarity, but do you “like” football or Pfish?
Keith Law: She reads these chats so I’d better be careful … I would say I really appreciate Phish because they’re such skilled musicians. At the two concerts we attended in 2019, I could just stand there and watch Trey’s fretwork for an entire solo and get lost in it. I wish I could move around the fretboard that easily but I could at least pick out patterns and try to infer where his mind was going. Football is just a fun thing to get angry about and an excuse to chill on the couch, but it’s nowhere near as serious a matter as rugby.

Ben: Akil Baddoo is getting a lot of buzz this spring from Tigers twitter. What should Tigers fans realistically expect for Baddoo? Would you cut Jacoby Jones to keep Baddoo on the squad?
Keith Law: I like Baddoo quite a bit, and hope he’s healthy now and can stick. Never bought JaCoby’s bat, and he’s about to turn 29 with no real track record of consistent production. I think the highest I ever rated him was out of high school, when he was all tools and athleticism, but he didn’t progress at LSU or in multiple stops so far in pro ball.

Mason: What would you do with Varsho this year? Think he’ll get the consistent playing time to get going this year?
Keith Law: Move him around the field but make sure he’s playing close to every day.

Joe Maddon: What do you think of the Angels Chris Rodriquez? Will he make the opening day roster? Do you see him long term as a starter or a reliever?
Keith Law: Absolutely should not make the OD roster. He’s barely pitched in three years and needs to be managed carefully this year, not according to the whims and needs of the major-league club.

ssimo02: Enjoyed your interview with Triston McKenzie. I respect that you won’t use Cleveland’s team’s nickname in your articles. Why did you use it to tag the team in your Tweet promoting the interview?
Keith Law: That’s their twitter handle. I can’t change that.

J. Alfaro: Who are the Top 3 catchers in the MLB draft in your mind, and need I concern myself with them?
Keith Law: Del Castillo, Davis, and Ford. We’ll see if Mack joins them when his season starts. The first three are all going in the first round.

Nate: As a Utah resident it’s cool to see Seth Corry getting some love. When’s the last time a legit prospect came out of Utah in any capacity? Do we have to go all the way back to CJ Cron?
Keith Law: Yep, it’s Cron, and he’s an Arizona kid who went to the University of Utah. There have only been two players drafted and signed out of Utah high schools to reach 10 career WAR: Bruce Hurst and Glenn Hubbard, 1976 and 1975 drafts respectively. Next is John Buck at 5.8 WAR.

Andrew: Thinking about Carlos Correa – are you aware of any evidence that guys who are injured frequently at a young age are more likely to continue to miss a lot of games throughout their careers? Correa has missed about 1/3 of his regular season games since 2017 while in his early 20s. I’d love for the Astros to extend him, but how do you bake this into a valuation of him? Basically, is “injury prone” a real thing?
Keith Law: So, my understanding is that, yes, this is true, the best predictor of whether a guy will get injured is whether he has gotten injured. I can not, however, point you to a study of any sort to demonstrate this.

Guest: Hi Keith. I also have anxiety and started taking metamucil when I read that you take it for digestive issues. How many pills do you take per day?
Keith Law: I take five, the recommended dose, every day before lunch.

Pat D: I don’t know why, but I don’t think I’m as excited as I should be for this upcoming season.  I’m not sure if it’s because I think the Yankees half-assed it in the offseason or because of my own health/work/personal issues or because things still don’t feel “normal.”  Anyone else feel this way?
Keith Law: I feel some of this, certainly … it doesn’t feel quite real to me, and my enthusiasm for going to see actual games is tempered by news like teams opening their gates way too soon or to too many fans. Maybe that will dissipate as soon as I get myself to a game.

Jason: Are your ESPN-era chats gone forever?
Keith Law: I don’t think they are all gone but the first few years were wiped out in the site redesign.

Dan: Cruzan has some great darker rums for blending including a 137 proof to make coquito.
Keith Law: I don’t love their rums, even the 15-year or the blackstrap. A little too medicinal for me.

JT: Evan White was a rookie and it was a weird year, but 40% K rate does not portend great things. Are you still optimistic about the bat?
Keith Law: Him becoming so pull-happy and unable to hit a MLB fastball is a huge concern.

Sal: Have you seen/heard anything about Dom Smith indicating he’ll maintain the numbers from the second half of 19 and 2020? He appears to be one of those guys to root for as a human and player.
Keith Law: That’s the hitter I always thought he’d become, so I wasn’t surprised to see it. I hope they continue to commit to finding him as much playing time as possible.

JR: Why do the Mets feel the need to explore an extension with Lindor? SS free agent class is loaded next year. Yes, he’s a great player, but seems a bit premature. Also, do you find it unique that they are publicly discussing that they are exploring extension talks with Lindor and Conforto? Seems like most of these extensions get announced as a surprise (like Tatis, Jr).
Keith Law: They’re clearly trying to signal to fans that it’s not Wilpon business as usual any more.

Paul: If we get to a point where every dr, nurse, every waiter, bartender, is vaccinated and hospitalizations are low – doesn’t it make sense to open things up?
Keith Law: Gradually, sure. Completely, as Texas and Maryland have done? No. A restaurant full of maskless (or frequently masks-off) people, mostly unvaccinated, is still a bad idea.
Keith Law: To be more specific: It is not supported by the science. Restaurants don’t have the distancing or ventilation required for maskless dining.

Appa Yip Yip: What players are your highest priority evaluations for this year? Guys who intrigue but haven’t been seen much or played in a bit?
Keith Law: That was my column yesterday. Gave 32 names, I think, despite the headline (which I didn’t write).

Bernie Brewer: Arcia vs. Luis Urias is a real post-hype prospect battle. Are either still potential assets for MLW?
Keith Law: I won’t give up on either guy … yet.

Andre: Keith – What have you heard about Robert Puason? It seems as though he went from being hailed as a top prospect ($5 million bonus) to almost an afterthought before playing a game in the US.
Keith Law: I don’t think he was really that top of a prospect, but he did get a huge bonus. Ton of concerns about his bat and body before and after he signed.

Frank: How does Henry Davis compare to some of the other recent catchers who were picked in the first round in the last few years?  He went to our local HS and was very excited to see your write up on him and that he is that well regarded.  Thanks.
Keith Law: Whichever team gets most comfortable with his unorthodox swing will pull the trigger somewhere in the teens, I think. Power for sure, high contact rates now, and can definitely catch. If everyone loved the swing and thought he’d continue to put the ball in play he’d be a top 10 guy.

JR: As weird as it sounds, I honestly think corporate America is our best bet to increase vaccine rates, especially the airlines, cruise ships, amusement parks, stadiums, etc. Places that accommodate large crowds. If they all institute a “you can’t visit our place/use our services without a vaccine or a recent (less than 24 hours) negative test” it will force anti vaxxers to either comply or prove negative test before being amongst a big group of people.
Keith Law: Yep. It’s bizarre, and inefficient, but some corporations are doing more on massive issues like climate change or LGBTQ+ rights than our own government.

Dixie: Have you ever read “The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier and Clay?” Thoughts?
Keith Law: I have – here’s my review from 2009. Chabon’s a brilliant writer who needs an editor to reign him in.

Tom: Have had debates about madrigal’s potential offensive output. No way he even slugs .420 (nice) or so right??
Keith Law: No evidence that is or ever will be within his skill set.

Max: What percent of this Mickey Moniak resurgence are you buying — 25%?
Keith Law: Zero for now. He’s got 10 AB in early spring training.

Tom: At what point will you vote for the person who will more likely unite america as opposed to the candidate we agree with more?
Keith Law: Show me a candidate who can “unite” America – after 12 years of GOP obstructionism, in particular – and we can talk.

Pat D: I think I know the answer, but will conservatives remember that they started “cancel culture?”  Bill Maher after 9/11, The Dixie Chicks, but even much longer ago The Beatles after the “more popular than Jesus” statement.  Also, can us sane people please agree that “cancel culture” is a bullshit, inaccurate term anyway?
Keith Law: It’s a term that segment of the media loves almost as much as they love talking about trans athletes.

Adam: I know you do not choose what to advertise on your podcast, but have you ever had to refuse to promote somewhat who wanted to buy ad time?  If a “anti-vax” org wanted to buy a spot, for example, could you go to the people at the Athletic (or before that, ESPN) and say that there was no way you would read the provided copy?
Keith Law: Yes. I have declined some ads and asked for changes in other ad copy (e.g., a product that wanted me to call it delicious, when I tried it and did not find it delicious).

JG: Is Whitley now destined to join Appel and Aiken as Astros 1st round pitching prospects to never pitch in the Big Leagues?
Keith Law: It’s Tommy John surgery … he’ll be back. Maybe he’ll never be what we thought, but he’ll be back.

addoeh: Any interesting/amusing stories from how you and your wife met or from your first few dates?
Keith Law: I’d have to check with her before sharing too much, but I think this is fair game: neither of us was all that sure that the other was interested after the first date. I traveled after that and we were texting furiously the whole time, after which point it became clear we could have something special – which we do.
Keith Law: I need to wrap this up – I’m sorry, there are still some great questions in the queue. Thank you all for reading. Next week’s chat might be at a different time or even postponed depending on work travel and other things. In the meantime, my breakouts column should run Wednesday, and I have a new review up at Paste of the quick 3-D board game Holi. Thanks again – stay safe and get that vaccine!

Stick to baseball, 3/6/21.

For subscribers to the Athletic, I ranked the top 30 prospects in this year’s draft class, with the caveat of course that we’ll likely see a lot of movement this spring because most college players didn’t play at all last summer or fall. I also answered some questions on the Padres’ farm system for our beat writer Dennis Lin. And I held a Klawchat on Thursday.

My guest on the Keith Law Show this week is Aaron Fitt of D1baseball.com, talking about this year’s draft class, Kumar Rocker vs. Jack Leiter, and other topics around college baseball. You can subscribe on Apple podcasts, Amazon, and Spotify.

The latest edition of my free email newsletter was about how it feels when the face in the mirror finally starts to catch up with your biological age. Also, you can still buy The Inside Gameand Smart Baseball anywhere you buy books; the paperback edition of The Inside Game will be out on April 6th.

And now, the links…

Wolfwalkers.

Wolfwalkers is the latest film from the Irish animation studio Cartoon Saloon, the 2-D specialists who have received Academy Award nominations for all three of their previous full-length films, Song of the Sea, The Secret of Kells, and The Breadwinner. Based on an original story by Will Collins, writer of Song of the Sea, this film – available only on Apple TV+ right now – is Cartoon Saloon’s best yet, with its most cohesive story and stunning hand-drawn animation, enough that it should win the studio their first Oscar, even though that won’t likely come to pass.

The story takes place in the 1600s in Kilkenny, a town in southern Ireland, where Robyn and her father Bill Goodfellowe have just arrived. The town is threatened by wolves in the nearby forest, which the town’s Lord Protector wishes to clear-cut, which would kill off the wolves or force them to move to another stand. Bill is a soldier, and wants Robyn to stay at home, for her own protection and other reasons that will become apparent, while Robyn is every young person in every animated movie ever – she wants to go out, explore, be a warrior, and so on. She gets into trouble multiple times, and ends up in the forest herself, where she discovers a Wolfwalker, a young girl named Mebh who can project herself into a corporeal wolf, leaving her human body in repose. The two become friends, and Robyn realizes that her father and her town will destroy Mebh’s entire pack – and kill Mebh’s mother, who left in her wolf form some weeks before and has yet to return.

The themes here are pretty straightforward – mankind’s inability to find balance with nature or respect other sentient species, and the dangerous combination of superstition and ignorance – and the Lord Protector character is fairly one-note, although he’s less overtly evil than the typical villain in animated fare. The relationship between the two girls is the real heart of the story, and the best sequences are when the two are together in human or wolf form, from their initial bickering to a very real argument that starts because Robyn tries to protect Mebh without respecting the latter’s agency. The relationship between Robyn and her father could have been more fleshed out early in the film, although it’s authentic enough as it is.

What sets Wolfwalkers apart from other animated films, and even Cartoon Saloon’s prior work, is the animation style. Cartoon Saloon’s animated people have a certain look to them, which is no different here, but the world around the characters explodes off the screen in color and texture – and that includes Mebh’s hair, which you’ve seen if you’ve seen any promotional materials for the film. The Breadwinner‘s setting required a grim color palette and harsh backgrounds, but Wolfwalkers is set on the Emerald Isle and the animators make sure you never forget it. It’s a visual feast, and even the occasional shot within the town walls, where colors are muted and you can almost feel the dust and soot in the air, can still be a marvel of layering and imagination.

You can guess most of the story’s ending by its midpoint, although the way our heroines defeat the Lord Protector has at least one surprise in it, so the development of Robyn’s character, and her relationship with Mebh, end up carrying the weight in the plot. It’s fortunate that the script is up to that task, and the two young women who voice those lead characters, Honor Kneafsey and Eva Whittaker respectively, are so good, with an on-screen relationship reminiscent of the one the Fanning sisters showed in My Neighbor Totoro. There’s a little violence here that would make this inappropriate for the youngest viewers, but less than you’d find in a typical super-hero movie (including Into the Spider-Verse). I haven’t seen all of the possible nominees yet, but I’m high enough on Wolfwalkers to say it’s going to be the best animated film of 2020.

Wolfwalkers was nominated for the Golden Globe for Best Animated Feature Film, but lost out to Pixar’s Soul, which seems likely to recur at the Oscars, where Onward (meh) and Over the Moon will probably get two of the other three nominations but have no chance to win. I don’t think there’s any comparison here; Soul is the more technically impressive film, and funnier, but has a far less interesting story, worse character development, and isn’t as visually appealing.It’s just very hard for other studios to beat Pixar/Disney; those studios have taken 13 of the 19 Oscars in this category, and 7 of the last 8. They often deserve the wins, but have also won several for no apparent reason other than commercial popularity – Frozen over both The Wind Rises and Ernest & Celestine comes to mind, as does Brave over, well, anything decent – so the odds seem to be stacked against any competing studio. Wolfwalkers is clearly the better film, however, and if you are one of the 18 people in the United States who has Apple TV+, add this to your queue.

Klawchat 3/4/21.

My ranking of the top 30 prospects for this year’s MLB Draft is now up for The Athletic subscribers.

Keith Law: Gold’s just around the corner. Klawchat.

Bradley: What do you think Sal Frelick’s potential MLB comp is?
Keith Law: I don’t like player comps, for various reasons. As he is now, he’s a leadoff type, high average/OBP, speed, defense in CF. Aaron Fitt and I discussed him on the podcast this week and he really thinks there will be more power in there. I could see that with some swing help.

JD: You said on the podcast that this seemed like a weak draft class. Same with 2022? Any particular standouts there already – Green, Johnson, someone else?
Keith Law: I don’t think I said that – it’s not a weak class, it’s kind of a good one. Strong in college RHP, high school shortstops, more catching than usual. Light on college bats – there may not be a college bat in the top ten – and left-handed pitching.

Tom G: Is there a comp for Lewis that you know of? 2 years off of baseball at such a young age?
Keith Law: Which Lewis?

Flavia: Do you have any concerns about the shape of Leiter’s curveball translating to MLB?
Keith Law: No. That’s … weird. I don’t think I’ve ever heard that complaint about a player.

Jared: Do Antonetti and Francona need to go?  Still some fact-finding to do, I suppose, but it reeeally looks like they knew and covered it up.
Keith Law: If executives know a potential employee has a history of the kind of behavior Callaway exhibited, and hire him anyway, yes, they should be let go.

Jason: Thoughts on the JBJ signing? I guess you can never have too many OF. Are we a pitching and D team, hoping to win 1-0?
Keith Law: What if you made the whole team out of centerfielders?
Keith Law: I actually love the deal. But i wonder if there’s a trade coming too – do they really need him, Cain, and Garcia?

David P: Who is the better pitcher? Grayson Rodriguez or Edward Cabrera. I’m torn but lean towards Grayson.
Keith Law: I ranked them both on my top 100, so the one I put higher is going to be my pick.

whyaremen: If I get the vaccine is there any reason for me to not attend games, from a public health perspective?
Keith Law: No, but wear a mask so you don’t spread the virus unknowingly.

David P: Any sense on who the Red Sox prefer at 4? Would they really draft a bat over one of the 3 pitchers?
Keith Law: WAY too early. Anyone trying to claim they know who’s drafting whom, or even who teams are targeting, is misleading you. I was with the Jays for five springs, and we never had anything narrowed down this early. This year it’s even less likely teams will do so.

Noah D: Hey Klaw, who do you see winning the Cleveland SS job between Gimenez and Rosario? Both were highly touted at one time
Keith Law: No inside info here, but I’d guess Gimenez is the regular SS and Rosario ends up playing multiple positions.

@RichCampbellPhD: I’ve had some fun watching ASU streaming games while waiting for April 1. How will the scouting of college players go for this year’s draft? Are word-of-mouth/network effects going to be even more pronounced than usual?
Keith Law: Teams are able to send scouts to most colleges right now. I only know of a handful of prospects who can’t be scouted in person right now, like Mason Black (who was scouted at Coppin State last week, but whose school, Lehigh, isn’t allowing anyone into games yet).

Barry: Will you be doing an Eagles draft preview this year? Seriously though, it would be fun if you joined The Athletics’s Eagles podcast as a guest at some point.
Keith Law: I don’t know how to define my Eagles fandom if I can’t complain about how Carson Wentz must be color blind since he never seemed to distinguish between his own receivers and the other team’s secondary.

Rocky: Do you think Gabriel Moreno has the chance to crack the top 100 prospects this year?
Keith Law: If you read all the way to the end of my Blue Jays org report, I answer that question directly.

Guest: RE SF Giants. Is this a draft class that allows the Giants to load up on arm talent? It seems the Giants farm system, while getting stronger generally, is lacking high ceiling arm talent.  Thoughts?
Keith Law: They’re definitely lighter on arms than bats. They could probably grab 2-3 quality arms in their first three picks, although I’d always advise best player available.

Adam: The Padres 5th OF job appears to be Brian O’Grady’s to lose going into Spring Training. More importantly, he is likely the primary back up to Trent Grisham in CF. If Grisham were to get banged up a bit, how much faith (both defensively and offensively) would you have in him starting for an extended amount of time?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t let him play there on more than an emergency basis.

Adam: Now that Fernando Tatís Jr is locked up for the next 14 years, would you project CJ Abrams as a CF or as a 2B long term? Which of the two positions is deemed more valuable?
Keith Law: He’s a shortstop.

Mason: Do you follow what’s going on in Independent ball much? Noticed some former 1st round picks will be coming to a city near me in Nick Travieso and Ty Hensley. Any chance they can break back through to affiliated ball?
Keith Law: Hensley’s main issue was health – and it wasn’t his fault. All depends on how hard they’re throwing, and in Travieso’s case I’d ask where his arm slot is these days.

Joe J: What is Franco’s ceiling? Can he be better than Tatis?
Keith Law: He’s not as dynamic as Tatis, or as fast, but he’s a better pure hitter.

Ben: Keith, why do you hate my draft prospect?
Keith Law: I hate all draft prospects equally.

Adam: Agree or disagree: Preller teaching himself Spanish and Japanese, never having an arbitration hearing during his tenure with the Padres, and not playing service time games with top prospects shows that he understands how valuable a track record of good faith is when you negotiate extensions. This is on top of building one of the best scouting and player development programs in the league. The man is simply a great executive.
Keith Law: That you, AJ?

Geordy: What has caused Luke Leto’s star to fall so far?
Keith Law: I don’t know how a high school player’s star could have “fallen.” When was he … whatever you think he was?
Keith Law: It’s not like we’re talking about a drafted kid who flopped in pro ball or something.

TomBruno23: I cannot bring myself to give a ____ about rules in spring training games. Am I ok?
Keith Law: They’re just practice for profit. I don’t get too worked up about it as long as no one does anything stupid.

Aaron C.: Have you ever written at length about pitcher usage in college (or high school)? Forgive my ignorance, but a hasty Google didn’t bring up anything.
Keith Law: Probably lost to the ESPN site re-design a few years ago.

Jon G: I’ve seen a couple of early mocks with catchers going to the Cubs. I’m not taking mocks very seriously at this point, but the team has given out a lot of its bigger bonuses in the draft and J2 market to catchers. Given the eventual shift to robo umps, how smart of a strategy would cornering the market on young, bat-first catchers be? Does a rule change mitigate the risk of targeting that demographic to any degree?
Keith Law: Don’t pay any attention to “early mocks.” They’re just guesses; no team has any idea who they’re taking now.
Keith Law: The risk of catchers isn’t related to framing. It’s related to the huge wear and tear of the position, as well as the difficulty of learning to hit while also learning to be a catcher.

Chris: How many negative reports on a prospect’s off-the-field traits does it take for you to be comfortable mentioning said traits about that given player? I imagine that would be a difficult situation to handle, you don’t want to besmirch a player’s reputations because some former coach or teammate didn’t like them for some reason. Guessing if you hear “man, player A is difficult to work with/is a nightmare off the field” enough times you’d be okay mentioning it in a story, just curious where that line is. (Apologies if my wording is clumsy)
Keith Law: I have to hear it from multiple, clearly disconnected sources.

John: Now with Triple-A being delayed, do the Mariners start Kelenic on opening day?
Keith Law: I would. The Mariners might. Kevin Mather wouldn’t have.

Tom G: Sorry Royce Lewis
Keith Law: That helps. Josh Hamilton did, and both were #1 overall picks (although quite dissimilar as players, and as people). Sucks for Lewis, though, because he had real swing issues he had to fix, and now he can’t really work on them for a least 6-7 months.

Guest: Hi Keith! What are floor and ceiling of the Braves Contreras? Who is the long term catcher for Atlanta, him or Langeliers?
Keith Law: Either. One ends up traded. Both are everyday catchers.

Thomas: Hi Keith; Thanks as always for these. You’ve been pretty vocal (which I agree with) about Cavan Biggio not really being an everyday player. However, given the front office has talked him up as being a core player for a couple of years now, do you actually envision them doing a 180 at some point, or do you think front offices feel like they’ve painted themselves into a corner when they make comments like these? (side note, it sounds like Montoyo is going to bat Springer leadoff. I was legit worried he would keep Biggio up there).
Keith Law: The signing of Semien told us far more than their words ever did.

Matt: Keith – I really love that you appreciate progressive metal.  I’m a huge Mastodon fan and have recently been getting into Gojira.  What other bands would you recommended in that genre?
Keith Law: Alcest, Pallbearer (doom), Toundra come to mind.

HH: Have you noticed any changes in the college ranks to how college coaches are (ab)using their top prospect starters? Are coaches doing it less? Are prospects & their parents avoiding coaches with such reputations?
Keith Law: Not that I’ve noticed.

Jeff: Which do you think is more anti-player, the draft or the international signing cap?  As I get older, I am really starting to understand how unfair a draft is to labor.  But is the international process any better?
Keith Law: They’re both anti-player and pro-owner.
Keith Law: Both shift money from players to ownership. Full stop.

Oscar: Klaw, what are the chances we see some fans in the CWS in Omaha? Also what’s the chance we see you come out for a few games?
Keith Law: Nebraska never even bothered with a mask mandate, right? And didn’t give two shits about workers in their meatpacking factories? They’ll probably allow 100% capacity by June.
Keith Law: I don’t go to the College World Series. In the past it was after the draft, so it was useless, but even now it’s not a good scouting environment.

Todd: Any thoughts on todays inauguration?
Keith Law: Just how many Great Disappointments can these people undergo before realizing they’ve all been duped?

TomBruno23: Thinking about whyaremen’s question as well…I am lucky enough to be getting my 2nd dose next Thursday, my favorite ballclub announced they are selling 15k per game…yet I am kind of like, “Nah, TV is fine.”
Keith Law: I can certainly understand refusing to support a team that is acting against the community interest, but once I’m vaccinated I will go to games, wearing a mask (or two), with little concern about catching the virus.

ATR: What do you think Willi Castro’s ceiling is?
Keith Law: Could be an everyday player.

Rob: Do you put any stock into raving spring training reviews of a young prospect’s work ethic and attitude?
Keith Law: No. I would put stock into a major league manager saying, “Joey Bagodonuts? He’s the laziest kid I’ve ever had. Rolls in at 5:30 for the five o’clock meeting, beer in one hand and cigarette in the other.”

Nelson: Didn’t see Huascar Ynoa on your Braves prospect report (maybe he’s ineligible, i am not clear), but do you think he can be useful at the MLB level? Think you were pretty high on him in your 2020 system report.
Keith Law: Ineligible. He was a prospect, will probably be a solid reliever for them this year.

Don: How does Ian Moller compare to other recent HS catchers?
Keith Law: Bat is well behind.

Pat: Assume Leiter is 1-1, Rocker is 1-2, who should Detroit take at 1-3? One of the HS SS, right? Lawler?
Keith Law: They should probably wait until July to decide, but Lawlar and Hill are the best choices right now.

Mike: Do you think Danny Jansen still has a shot to be an average regular?  I’m excited about Kirk, but if he’s starting, that’s sort of it for Jansen, no?
Keith Law: I’m leaning towards no on Jansen. No history of durability, for one major reason.

Guest: Who are the best local players?  Lonnie White?
Keith Law: Quite a few – Benny Montgomery, Solometo, Petty are all pretty close to me.
Keith Law: Black, if Lehigh opens its doors.

Jeff: Political prediction: do the Democrats “amend” the filibuster rules in some way to pass much needed legislation to combat the voter suppression going on in red states?
Keith Law: I sure as hell hope so, because you know the Republicans would have zero hesitation in doing so if it suited them.

Thomas: I’m a bit surprised to see Hajjar being mocked in the first round some places despite having close to twenty total college innings. Was he considered a legit draft prospect out of high school?
Keith Law: He’s not a first-rounder right now. That’s absurd. He could be one by July – I’m not going even hazard an opinion on that – but people saying he’s going in the first round are just making shit up.
Keith Law: Everyone’s a draft expert now.

Jake: Comparing the offspeed pitches from Leiter and Rocker – more that the Leiter’s curve is just that good or that Rocker’s slider may not have the same success in professional baseball?
Keith Law: Rocker’s slider is great against college bats, but multiple scouts told me they don’t think it’s going to be the same sort of weapon in pro ball.

Rob: At this point in his career, do you see Michael Chavis as having the ability to be an average every day player or is he a bench bat at best?
Keith Law: Bench guy more likely.

Drew: Do you believe that the Republican part is truly fracturing? I certainly hope so and the divisions do seem to be real and somewhat insurmountable for a rational human. But every time over the last 4-5 that I’ve gotten that feeling of “ah, this is where it end” I end up feeling foolish for believing it.
Keith Law: Oh I don’t think so. I think they’re quite happy with their newfound cohesion.

TomBruno23: I believe you were a Yankees fan growing up. Was Mattingly your favorite player? Any under the radar deep cut favorite players?
Keith Law: Willie Randolph was my favorite.

Patrick: Could Chris Rodriguez sneak into the Angels bullpen by the end of the season? He looked filthy in his spring debut
Keith Law: He has never pitched above A-ball and has 9 innings in the last three years.
Keith Law: Sure, teams do stupid stuff all the time, but you’d have to lay 1000-to-1 odds against a kid with his history getting time in the majors this year.

ProjectHanyo: I know this is gonna be a guy not on your list and more of a maybe top 5 round guy, but what have you heard about Ryan Bliss of Auburn? Thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Exactly – rounds 3-5 sort of guy, scouts may love him, can’t play short and doesn’t have real power.

Dougie Fresh: Andrew Stevenson a league average regular?
Keith Law: Platoon guy.

Important spring update: Taylor Rogers just yelled “It’s a spring training game, come on man” to home plate umpire Manny Gonzalez after getting squeezed like five times in six pitches.
Keith Law: Good for Rogers.

Ben: So…  Dylan Crews is pretty good, huh?
Keith Law: We should probably hold off until LSU plays someone decent. They beat the hell out of Nicholls, Youngstown St, and Southern the last five games.

Mike: It seems like a lot of A’s fans are perpetually excited about Lazarito being a future star, but seems like a bit of a long shot to me. What do you think?
Keith Law: Zero shot.

Drew: The Twins having their AAA affiliate 10 miles away in St. Paul is pretty cool as a Twin Cities resident but it actually feels like it would offer some real opportunity for the Twins brass. Do you think they push more players that might have otherwise been in AA up to AAA? Or is this as dumb as I’m starting feel like it is as I close in on the end of my question?
Keith Law: Could be a good business decision but not a good baseball one.

Matt: You were high on Max Pentcost right?   What happened to him?
Keith Law: Was I? I feel like I was a little lighter on his bat, but the truth is he just got hurt, a lot, and we’ll never know if he was any good.

Tom: Hey Keith, have you had a chance to spend any time at the Delaware beaches?  Any restaurant recommendations?
Keith Law: Really loved the Station in Lewes. Haven’t spent much time down there overall though.

Harry: Apologies if you have addressed this already, but what led you to leave Jud Fabian off of the top 30?
Keith Law: He can’t hit a breaking ball. Guys his age with that issue don’t go in the first round much, if at all, any more. Kam Misner is a good comparison – an SEC player who got off to a huge start, fell off when conference play began, and went in the comp round. Anfernee Grier was similar too.

Drew: Lewis Thorpe is in the best shape of his life by all accounts. If he’s back at 92-93 does that make him an appealing option for the Twins when Matt Shoemaker gets hurt?
Keith Law: Sounds like he’s in a better place mentally too. I think he’s at least a back-end starter if his velocity is back to where it was years ago, pre-TJ.

Aaron C.: I know baseball is BACK when my A’s-leaning newsfeed is filled with “Buddy Reed’s Done It Again” headlines. Jesus, people.
Keith Law: I know we’re a little more accustomed to fringe guys – Max Muncy comes to mind – changing overnight and becoming stars, but yeah, I’ll believe in Buddy Reed’s bat when he does this in regular season games. He’s a great athlete, 7 run, 7 glove, with some power, but his swing has always been a problem.

Justin: Do you think MLB has a full season lockout next year ?
Keith Law: I hope not but I think it’s a real possibility.

Guest: What’s the next project for you at the Athletic with the prospects overview complete?
Keith Law: Draft stuff, a couple of new feature ideas, and some labor commentary.

Claudio: What do you see in Braden Shewmake? Is he an everyday MLB shortstop and potential replacement for Dansby, utility guy, AAAA?
Keith Law: He was on my top 100.

Dan: Does Ronny Mauricio stick at SS?
Keith Law: Yes, no doubt.

Chris: Do you have a type of prospect that you find harder to scout than the others? Or is there a type of prospect that is more likely to “fool” scouts because they’re difficult to project?
Keith Law: Catchers are very hard to evaluate as amateurs. The hit tool is the hardest tool for hitters, command for pitchers.

TomBruno23: How long are we going today? I have a meeting in an hour and want to get a walk in while it is 65 outside. Asking for myself.
Keith Law: Till about 3:15 ET. Had to start late because I was recording something for my next podcast.

Dan: Any thoughts on NBA Top Shot and how MLB could get into the virtual collectable space?
Keith Law: I think that space is ridiculous. You don’t own a digital “collectible.”

Guest: In 2021, is there a phrase that is supposed to imply intelligence but in fact signals the exact opposite more than “I did my own research?”
Keith Law: Nope. That just means they have access to the internet, and no capacity to distinguish real from bogus information.

Robbie: Hi Keith.  Any sense as to MLB/Manfred’s reaction/response to the Callaway, Porter, Ellis situations.  MLB seem to have been mostly silent to date.  Would think MLB has a role to play in expunging this behaviour from the sport through fines, penalties, suspensions etc. to players/clubs.  Are you hearing that anything is in the works/being contemplated at the MLB level?
Keith Law: I know for a fact there are multiple MLB investigations ongoing.

JR: I guess I shouldn’t be surprised, but I am a little that the Suess estate’s personal decision to stop selling certain books has turned into “Biden and the Dems have cancelled Dr. Suess” lol. They made the decision on their own (and a very cynical person may even wonder if they did it in part to drive up book sales)
Keith Law: I’m more amazed at how many people on the left seem to see this as actual concern over “cancel culture” rather than obvious pandering to the base. It’s the same as the bills requiring trans athletes compete in the sexes they were assigned at birth. It’s not a real problem. Nobody actually cares about this issue. But it buys headlines, and appeals to the Neanderthal base.

addoeh: Split loyalties seemingly for you next weekend for Six Nations.  Will you cheer for Italy or Wales?
Keith Law: Italy has no chance in the 6N, so it’ll be easy to root for Wales.

Dan: Do you like backgammon?
Keith Law: Never got into it.

Don: Is Jake Burger a guy again after losing 40lbs?
Keith Law: I’m optimistic that he’s going to turn back into a prospect this year.

Anon: On a scale of 1-10, just how threatened is our democracy? The proliferation of social media disinformation, stupid people generally, and naked attempts at voter suppression have me afraid. Am I overreacting?
Keith Law: At least a 7. The media – and not just right-wing media, but most mainstream media – are complicit. Why are people who encouraged the Big Lie appearing on my television? Who the fuck is booking these people?

TomBruno23: Any thoughts on DC as a 51st state?
Keith Law: It is absurd that they’re not one. The same for Puerto Rico. Why should those American citizens lack representation in Congress? Because they’re mostly people of color?

Chris: Tatis, Soto, and Acuna – Between their actual baseball ability and the way they play the game, have we had a more enjoyable trio of young stars in recent memory? And that’s before you add in more established guys like Trout, Betts, Baez, and so many others!
Keith Law: MLB should be marketing the hell out of those guys already.
Keith Law: I’m sure we’ve had comparable trios, but those are the guys we have right now. They should be household names.

Frank: What are a few great baseball documentaries you’ve watched?
Keith Law: Pelotero.

Trevor: KLaw – Appreciate the draft prospect write-ups. Happy to see Bachman high on your list as a former Miami (OH) grad myself. No question just in agreement that the teaching of critical thinking to kids would vastly improve the educational system
Keith Law: It should be a major part of any state or local education reform.

Matt: I know this is a subjective question and open to interpretation, but if you had to pick the team that has the least amount of hope of being a consistent winner in the next decade, which would you pick?
Keith Law: I feel like Colorado is in the worst shape, because they don’t seem to have a clear direction for the major-league roster, the farm system is below the median, and that is the hardest MLB environment in which to build a team. They have to be 10% better than everyone else.

Guest: Seuly Matias has a ____ chance of being Joey Gallo
Keith Law: Zero.

Jason: How long until the other teams catch up to San Diego’s discovery of the market inefficiency in spending money to win?
Keith Law: Sssh. It’s still a secret.

Thomas: I might be one of those rare few people that actually read your prospect stuff entirely to apply to my fantasy league. I’ve won a handful of times so thank you for all your help. Well worth the subscription. Whose bat would you prefer long term, Jazz Chisholm or Brandon Lowe?
Keith Law: Chisholm has way more risk but way more upside. Your choice.

Alex A.: In Atlanta, 3rd appears to be the only position of any significant concern in the near term (assuming one of the two catching prospects hits).  Do you see a scenario in which Riley becomes a serviceable regular, or is the future Shewmake/outside acquisition?
Keith Law: Shewmake could end up there, or stay at SS, but I’ve never really bought Riley’s bat and we now have a year-plus of data showing he’s not able to hit enough to be a regular. His bat speed has always been an issue.

That guy: with regular season baseball still about a month away and this cold weather I’m looking for something new to play. Whats your favorite 2 player board game?
Keith Law: Favorite of all time is Jaipur. Would also recommend 7 Wonders Duel and Patchwork.

Greg: What player on a 10+ year contract would you bet is the first to leave their team? Most likely to finish their contractt?
Keith Law: I am all in on the Padres’ plan, but if I’m being realistic, the odds of both of their 10+ year guys staying in San Diego for the durations of their contracts are probably low.

Jase: What’s the best way to address competitive and/or financial imbalance in the game? Booting certain owners? How would they legislate that? Cap and floor? Or just shrug and accept it?
Keith Law: Tie revenue-sharing payments to some form of competitiveness. If you lose 110 games, you don’t get any cash.

Rob: Kyle Wright or Bryse Wilson? Who do you think has a better year
Keith Law: Leaning Wilson but not that confident in the pick.

Don: Is Andrew Vaughn’s lack of power so far in pro ball a concern?
Keith Law: He played for three months. After a full college spring.

Fernando G: Hey Keith, Hope you’re doing well. Do you have any insight into the front office culture across MLB right now? I am interested in getting started in the industry, but worry if the culture is more ‘traditional’ (i.e. tattoos and piercings are frowned upon). Sorry if that’s a bit of a loaded question, but it’s something I have been curious about and didn’t know where to look for any useful info on it. A traditional culture wouldn’t be a complete turnoff for me, but it would certainly be a negative that I would like to be able to take into account beforehand. Thanks!
Keith Law: If tattoos were frowned upon you’d never see a former pro player in any front office job.

Pat: Many of the local media around Detroit are saying Tigers need to take a college player at 1-3, so the timeline matches up closer with the “Big 5” prospects that are all supposed to hit within the next yr-18 mos..that has to be some of the worst reasoning ever, right? Pass up a potential star SS like Lawler because he may not debut until 2024-25?
Keith Law: Local media are probably not in a good position to make that call. Not that that ever stopped anyone. You take the best player available, period.

Jon G: Have draft evaluators (scouts, higher ups, public analysts) begun to incorporate seam-shifted wake into their lexicon as it relates to draft prospects? Would that make any meaningful difference from simply describing “late movement”? Has the concept as demonstrated changed the way you value certain pitch types?
Keith Law: Scouts don’t evaluate that … I mean, how could they? You can’t see it with your eyes. That’s why we have the technology. But scouts can see how hitters react, or how a pitch breaks in an unexpected way. SSW is just the hot new term – not saying there’s anything wrong or untrue about it, but it’s been in a few articles this week and now it’s the new toy. (EDIT: Just to be clear, I’m not diminishing SSW, or anyone writing about it, at all, but to argue against a sort of recency bias in ideas – the last new thing you heard isn’t necessarily the best thing, or even true. To answer the remainder of Jon G.’s question, I think SSW is different from late movement, or even movement; it describes a cause and an effect, with the effect a specific type of movement and the associated deception.)

Guest: I badly wanted the Yankees to draft Jack Leiter in 2018 (no offense to Volpe). How has he developed in the last 2 years?) Higher velocity, better command and sharper breaking stuff?
Keith Law: All of that. Filled out some too.

Tom: Is there any chance of Jon Gray becoming anything more if he were to move outta coors field?
Keith Law: I think so. Would love to see it.

Mike M: Any plans to make it to Bridgewater to see the new Yankees AA affiliate?
Keith Law: Of course, once it’s safe to do so.

Drew: Boy, the longer Cuomo stays in office despite his incompetence on COVID and multiple harassment allegations, the more he looks like a Democratic mini-Trump, huh? I feel like we should really not emulate the “shamelessness as a political superpower” on the left.
Keith Law: Agreed. I’m glad at least some Democrats have called for his resignation.

JD: What should be looking for in Andy Pages’ game this year?
Keith Law: Contact.

JD: Your writeup of Matt Allan was pretty much all positive, but I gather he’s missing something he needs to be a true ace. What’s that?
Keith Law: I said in the writeup that his fastball plays below its velocity. That’s his main drawback. He’s going to have to work more with his offspeed stuff than most starters.

Steve: You think Mondesi can be a star?
Keith Law: Career .284 OBP, .292 in the last two seasons if you want to give him a pass on the early call-ups. He has never developed an adequate approach at the plate, and I doubt he ever will. He can still be valuable because he does so many other things, but hitters with neither patience nor power have limited ceilings.

Green New Deal: I have a hard time seeing how we’re going to convert to renewables at the scale needed without more investment in nuclear energy.  The main arguments are expense and waste, but from the cost perspective, it’s a drop in the bucket compared to potential GDP loss from more natural disasters and overall instability.
Keith Law: Agreed. Unfortunately, the green energy crowd tends to be anti-nuclear because availability bias leads them to believe that it is more dangerous than it actually is.

Frank: Any reason why you do not typically include recent j -2 signings such as diaz and martinez in teams’ top 20 reports/other notables ?
Keith Law: Because they’re 16.

Adam: Would you give Pache more time at the Alt Site/AAA and trot Ender out there or start him in the Majors then re evaluate come may?
Keith Law: I’d play him now and get the benefit of his defense, but I won’t argue if they want him to go to AAA to work on pitch recognition.
Keith Law: Once AAA starts, that is.

John: Why bother keeping the filibuster anymore?  If protecting voting rights isn’t important enough to remove that nothing will ever be and unfortunately only one side sees that as a problem.
Keith Law: My question is why the filibuster ever existed. It seems antithetical to our system of government.

Nolan: I know it’s crazy, but I find myself hopeful about Anderson Espinoza. Seems like starter is out of the question, but could he be an impactful bullpen piece?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s that crazy and I would like to see if he can start. Few guys do after two TJs, but there have been exceptions.

Mac: Was surprised Alex Binelas made the top 30. He’s looked horrible at the plate and they’re starting to play him at 1B more often because he’s been just as bad at 3B.
Keith Law: I said in the piece that he’s gotten off to a bad start, but the rankings aren’t just based on this year. He may very well end up in the second round or later, though.

Jason: Re: Puerto Rico, it’s unclear whether they actually want statehood.  In 2012, a bare majority wanted to even change its current status (and then was split between free association, statehood, and independence), and in 2020 statehood barely received a majority over independence (“no” meant a commission to determine the next steps toward independence)
Keith Law: That’s not really true; a majority of PR residents want statehood, with three nonbinding votes in the last 15 years showing that, but opponents have done a good job of casting doubt on that. Just another episode in our country’s long and shameful history of disenfranchising nonwhite voters.

Steve: How far along are you playing My City? We’re  4 episodes in, so Chapter 2, and enjoying it so far.
Keith Law: We hit the gold mines, which I think is about halfway? It’s fun. A nice light game we can play 2-3 times in a sitting. Put it aside for a while as my wife was extremely busy with work and I was plowing through prospect rankings.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat. Thank you all so much for reading and for all of your questions. I’ll try to keep these chats going weekly now that we have a season, depending on my travel commitments once those get starter. Stay safe, and go get vaccinated as soon as you can!

Pieces of a Woman.

Vanessa Kirby stole so many scenes in the first two seasons of The Crown, often overshadowing her co-star Claire Foy, who played the actual Queen of England. As the tragic (and later tragicomic) figure Princess Margaret, she was by turns charming, fashionable, jealous, and, as in Margaret’s real life, heartbroken and betrayed. I’d seen her previously in the short-lived BBC series The Hour, but didn’t recognize her when I saw her in 2020’s Mr. Jones or when she took on the role of Margaret.

Pieces of a Woman represents her critical breakthrough, as her command performance as a woman grieving the loss of a baby during a home birth gone awry earned her the Best Actress Award at the Venice Film Festival in 2020, a Golden Globe nomination for the same, and, most likely, an Oscar nomination as well. The movie is uneven, and the resolution of the story feels more like fantasy than reality on multiple levels, but Kirby is a knockout in this role and makes this arduous film well worth the time investment.

Kirby plays Martha, a very pregnant woman whose husband, Sean (Shia LaBoeuf), is a blue-collar worker and clearly not respected by her mother (Ellen Burstyn). Martha and Sean have chosen a home birth, but their midwife isn’t available when labor begins, so they call another midwife their original one recommended. The new midwife, Eva (Molly Parker), seems a little overmatched when things start to go wrong, and after it seems like they’re out of the woods and their baby girl is born, she starts to turn blue and stops breathing. Martha and Sean are both left to grieve their loss, but both Sean and Martha’s mother become invested in the criminal case against Eva, pulling them away from Martha when she needs them, and the family dynamics become even more complicated when Martha’s cousin Suzanne (Sarah Snook) is the prosecuting attorney.

The film opens with its best scene, a 24-minute single-shot depiction of the labor, delivery, and death of the baby that is intense not just because you know how it’s going to end, but because it’s so slow relative to most films. This is a more detailed depiction of childbirth than you get in most films, and it’s only to the movie’s benefit, especially because it shows the physical labor (no pun intended) required of the mother and thus further underlines both the level of Martha’s anguish and the emotional distance she feels from everyone around her, including her husband, when their baby dies.

Kirby is just powerful in this role, even in grief; there’s no lower gear anywhere in the performance, regardless of the mood or situation. She’s especially good in scenes with her mother – and Burstyn, who seems unlikely to get an Oscar nod, is also excellent – who seems completely unable to understand her daughter in multiple conversations. She’s also good in scenes with LaBoeuf, who is … fine. He’s received praise for his performance, or at least did before FKA Twigs accused him of emotional and physical abuse; I couldn’t stand him in American Honey, either, and I just couldn’t find him credible here, but I concede that it’s difficult to separate the actor from the character in this case. At least here, we rarely see him without Kirby, who is very much the emotional center of the movie.

The ending, however, doesn’t live up to the previous 90-plus minutes. We end up in a courtroom, where the case is resolved with something out of Law & Order – well-acted, but, still, unrealistic and maudlin – that is an ostensible attempt to show the end of Martha’s emotional arc. I don’t buy it, because it’s not something we would see in the real world, and because Martha’s arc would have no real conclusion. My lay understanding of the psychology of grief is that it doesn’t go away; it may fade, or just be blunted by time, but it persists. That point leads me to wonder if the final scene is meant to be real, fantasy, or just ambiguous, which is something I’ll leave you to answer in the comments if you’re so inclined.

There’s more than enough in Pieces of a Woman to recommend it, even with the flawed ending and my personal distaste for LaBoeuf. The opening scene is masterful, and I imagine people will refer to it for years the way they did The Player‘s opening scene. Burstyn will probably miss out on what would be her seventh Oscar nomination, especially with Jodie Foster winning a Golden Globe for The Mauritanian, but she’s superb in a pivotal role, a better foil for Kirby in character and in ability. And, if nothing else has convinced you, watch it for Kirby, who may not win in a stacked Best Actress category, but did deliver one of the best performances of 2020.

Music update, February 2021.

My first draft prospect ranking for 2021 is now up for The Athletic subscribers.

I didn’t post a playlist for January, as that month didn’t give me anywhere near enough new tracks even if I’d accepted that I’d have to make the playlist shorter than usual, but now, with two-plus months since my last music post, we’re back to normal again. Three great albums have helped kick off 2021, with a few stragglers from 2020, and a slew of singles heralding upcoming LPs from artists new and old. As usual, I’ve pushed the heavier material to the back of the list. You can access the playlist here if you can’t see the widget below.

Kid Kapichi – Working Man’s Town. This Time Next Year, the debut record from this Hastings quartet, sounds like something Alex Turner might have cooked up if he wanted to do something grittier and more abrasive. The record is brilliant, witty, and surprisingly full of hooks, featuring this track, “Sardines,” and “Don’t Kiss Me (I’m Infected).”

Arlo Parks – Hope. Parks’ debut album Collapsed in Sunbeams dropped in January, featuring all of the great singles she’d released in the preceding eighteen months, including “Hurt,” “Green Eyes,” “Black Dog,” and “Caroline.” This track has more of her gorgeous vocals, sharp lyrics, and soulful, jazzy (but not jazz) backing music, making it the best of the new songs on the record.

Gum Country – Somewhere. As the year came to a merciful close, I found more and more best-of lists to peruse, including some great genre-specific ones over at Paste. Gum Country’s debut album Somewhere took the last spot (that is, #50) on Paste‘s top 50 albums of 2020 list, and it’s worthy of the praise, combining elements of power pop, indie rock, and psychedelia, like Velocity Girl met My Bloody Valentine by way of early Mercury Rev.

Black Honey – Believer. Black Honey have been among my favorite indie pop/rock bands for at least three years now, and they put out two songs since my last playlists went up, this straight-up pop track and the much harsher “Disinfect,” although even that song has an undeniable hook.

HAERTS – Shivering. HAERTS’ third album Dream Nation will be out on March 12th, and I can’t wait, even though I think you could argue their sound hasn’t really changed in the nine years since they first appeared.

The Lottery Winners feat. Frank Turner – Start Again. I missed the Lottery Winners’ self-titled debut album last March, but it’s fun, hooky indie-pop, and their sound works really well with Turner’s vocals here.

Royal Blood – Typhoons. I’m cautiously optimistic that Royal Blood are going to correct course a little bit and get closer to the heavy hooks of their debut album, although nothing will ever touch “Out of the Black.” This song really grooves with more bottom than a good splitter.

FRITZ – Jan 1. FRITZ’s sophomore album Pastel feels like something out of the mid-90s, kind of Lotion meets early Lush, fuzzy, reverbed-out, guitar-driven indie-pop with a coming-of-age theme to it.

Griff – Black Hole. This is Griff’s eleventh single, according to Wikipedia, although she has yet to release a full album, although I suppose we can forgive her since she just turned 20 in January. This was the first track of the pop singer/songwriter’s to cross my radar, but the hook in this chorus – “there’s a big black hole where my heart used to be” – is a hell of an earworm.

Allie X – GLAM! That intro sounds like I’m about to play a video game … 15-20 years ago, maybe? But then the singer/model Allie X starts with a whoa-oh-oh-oh that would have fit in on pop radio in 1985. I mean, listen to this chorus. How is this song not already an enormous hit?

Noname – Rainforest. I confess Noname’s laconic delivery has never done much for me, but the syncopated beat and her somewhat faster tempo here caught my ear in a way none of her previous tracks had.

Potty Mouth – Let Go. Speaking of Velocity Girl, I feel like this Massachusetts all-girl trio is sort of VG’s spiritual heirs with their sunny power-pop tracks, although I think their lyrics slipped a grade here.

Django Django feat. Charlotte Gainsbourg – Waking Up. The third new album of 2021 that’s likely to show up on my year-end list – although I’d rank it third of those three – is the Djangos’ fourth album Glowing in the Dark, which has this surprising collaboration with erstwhile Lars von Trier muse Gainsbourg.

YONAKA – Seize the Power. This Brighton quartet, led by the charismatic singer Theresa Jarvis, plan to release their sophomore album this year, with this first single a slight departure from the style of Don’t Wait Til Tomorrow.

King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard – East West Link. This prolific Australian prog/psych rock band just released L.W., their 17th album in just eight and a half years. I assume the title refers to the vaguely “eastern” sounds – I’d say more south Asian, or even the southwestern part of Asia, but I’m no expert in music from either region – which sort of give this whole thing a Physical Graffiti vibe.

Greentea Peng – Nah It Ain’t the Same. Peng’s debut album MAN MADE is due out this summer, and I’m at least curious after this lead single, which has elements of hip-hop, soul, funk, andthe sort of Thai jazz brought to the mainstream by Khruangbin.

Freddie Gibbs – Winter in America. Gibbs is an unusual but inspired choice to cover Gil-Scott Heron and Brian Jackson’s 1975 track, which originally appeared on The First Minute of a New Day. This cover is part of a partnership between ESPN’s The Undefeated and Hollywood Records and appeared on an EP called Black History Always – Music For The Movement Vol. 2.

Iceage – Vendetta. This Danish post-post-punk band’s fifth album Seek Shelter is due out May 7th, with this tense, sludgy track the lead single.

Death from Above 1979 – One + One. Driven by a guitar riff to make Josh Homme blush, this song also has a real groove to it, like a lost track from the Mark Ronson-produced QotSA album.

Gojira – Born for One Thing. I think Gojira is the most interesting metal band going right now, as they’ve gotten more progressive and creative with each album, moving from straight death metal to more technical material to their current hybrid of thrash, prog, and even “groove” metal sounds. I never got into Pantera, but I can hear the influence of Diamond Darrell on the guitarwork here as I did on Magma.

Angelus Apatrida – Bleed the Crown. These Spanish thrash stalwarts released their self-titled seventh album late last year, showing a strong influence from both Bay Area thrash and the giants of Teutonic metal like Kreator and Destruction, although the vocals are mostly death growls and in many cases overtook the pleasure of the guitar riffs.

Memoriam – Failure to Comply. Memoriam are often tagged as straight death metal because of Karl Willetts’ (ex-Bolt Thrower) guttural vocals, but they have more in common with traditional thrash than current extreme metal. This track is directly inspired by the BLM protests that took place across most of last summer in the US, as Willetts has a friend who participated in and recorded one event, ending up in jail and receiving community service (in his telling) for protesting.

Judas and the Black Messiah.

Daniel Kaluuya’s Golden Globes win might bring some more attention to the superb Judas and the Black Messiah, available now on HBO Max, a biopic that focuses on the final months of Fred Hampton’s life by focusing equally on the man who betrayed him. It’s a different angle than a more typical biography, and I can see an argument that it gives Hampton short shrift, but the two lead performances absolutely drive this movie.

Fred Hampton (Kaluuya) was the head of the Illinois chapter of the Black Panther Party when Edgar Hoover’s FBI decided he was a threat to the nation and, with the help of the members of the Chicago Police Department who weren’t busy assaulting protesters, executed him in his bed while his pregnant girlfriend listened from the next room. The FBI was able to do this because one of Hampton’s lieutenants, William O’Neal (LaKeith Stanfield), was an FBI informant who ratted out Hampton to avoid a felony charge of car theft. O’Neal not only provided information to his FBI handler, Roy Mitchell (Jesse Plemons), but slipped a sedative into Hampton’s drink the night of the execution so he’d be unable to flee or fight back.

Judas and the Black Messiah follows O’Neal’s story from his arrest to Hampton’s murder, bookending the film with footage from Eyes on the Prize II, in which O’Neal gave his only public comment on his involvement in Hampton’s assassination. The narrative focus shifts away from O’Neal to Hampton as needed, giving more time for Hampton’s character to develop, and more time for Kaluuya to show how a magnetic speaker like Hampton could develop such a strong following in such a short period of time – he first became active in social justice movements at 18, and the FBI had him executed when he was 21. (Kaluuya and Stanfield are both much older than the men they portray.)

Stanfield is the lead actor here, at least by how the film’s producers have submitted the pair’s names for awards, but most of the film’s strongest moments belong to Kaluuya. It’s unsurprising, given his superb performances in Get Out and Widows, but he is an unbelievably compelling Hampton whenever he’s speaking to any sort of crowd, friendly or hostile. Kaluuya was positively creepy in Widows as a remorseless, vindictive killer, and here he channels that same implacable calm in any situation, such as when Hampton speaks to a group of Appalachian whites, transplants in Chicago, who rallied under the Confederate flag but also shared some progressive views with the Panthers (a meeting, and subsequent alliance, that occurred in real life).

Meanwhile, despite a strong performance by Stanfield, the script doesn’t give us enough insight into why O’Neal was willing to betray Hampton, to work with the FBI and against his own community, even when he gets clear evidence that the Panthers were creating positive change. His initial willingness to sign up as an informant, avoiding what the film says would have been six years in prison, is easy to grasp, but as the demands on him grow, and he’s more entrenched within the Panther organization, why wouldn’t he balk? Where’s the hesitation beyond what the script gives us in a phone call or two where he threatens to walk away and then changes his mind when reminded of the charges hanging over his head. Stanfield is very good at portraying anguish, speaking through clenched jaws with his head slightly bowed, but there’s something lacking in the character’s portrayal here – although even the actual interview O’Neal gave shortly before his death (the same day that Eyes on the Prize II aired) fails to provide a satisfactory explanation, as he seems unwilling to confront the consequences of his own actions. It’s at least plausible that director Shaka King and writers Keith and Kenneth Lucas made an active choice to leave O’Neal’s character vague because of the paucity of information on his motivations and feelings after the fact.

Between this film and the contemporaneous The Trial of the Chicago 7, it’s a strong year for ACAB in movies (or perhaps ACCAB, since both films involve gross misconduct by Chicago police), which speaks to much of the present mood in large portions of the country even though both events took place over 50 years ago. The idea of our own government executing a 21-year-old citizen in his sleep, where the police fired 90 shots and the Panthers in the apartment fired just one, should still shock and horrify us, and Judas and the Black Messiah doesn’t shy away from the corruption and police-state authoritarianism that allowed these events to take place – and the men behind them to walk away unscathed. It’s infuriating without feeling manipulative, unlike Sorkin’s film, because Judas’ script hews far more closely to the true story. It’s a film-world crime that The Trial of the Chicago 7 got a Best Picture – Drama nomination at the Globes, and a screenplay win, when Judas received neither, something I hope is remedied when the Oscars come out with their own slate of nominees in two weeks, with Kaluuya also deserving of a nod. Judas is an imperfect film in a few ways – I could have done without some of the inside-the-FBI stuff too – but between Kaluuya’s performance and the sheer power of the story behind it, it’s one of the year’s best.

Stick to baseball, 2/27/21.

Nothing new for subscribers to the Athletic this week now that my entire offseason prospects package has run. I held a Klawchat on Thursday.

Over at Paste, I reviewed Canvas, a new card-drafting and card-crafting game with some of the best artwork I’ve ever seen on a board game. It’s so visually appealing that you’ll want to play it more.

On this week’s episode of the Keith Law Show, I spoke with Blue Jays VP of International Scouting Andrew Tinnish about their loaded farm system and what it’s like to scout players in Latin America, including ones as young as 13. You can subscribe on Apple podcasts, Amazon, and Spotify.

For more of me, you can subscribe to my free email newsletter. Also, you can still buy The Inside Game and Smart Baseball anywhere you buy books; the paperback edition of The Inside Game will be out in April.

And now, the links…

The Nest.

Writer-director Sean Durkin’s first feature film, 2011’s Martha Marcy May Marlene, was a marvelous, gripping story with a star turn from a then-unknown Elizabeth Olsen – or, if she was known, it was for being a younger sister – that seemed to herald great things for Durkin once he had more resources available for another project. He finally returned to the screen in 2020 with The Nest, another extremely taut, well-acted, psychological thriller, returning again to themes of emotional manipulation and broken people, this time in a nuclear family where the couple are frantically trying to ignore the cracks in their marriage’s foundation.

Set in the 1980s, which is evident from the music to the clothes to the hairstyles, The Nest follows Roy (Jude Law) and Allison (Carrie Coon) as they relocate from New York City to the English countryside, where Roy believes he’ll find new business opportunities with a previous employer. They move into a giant Victorian house in Surrey that’s far too big for them and their two children, but it becomes evident that it is another symptom of Roy’s penchant for magical thinking and aspiration. The move isn’t for new opportunities, but because he’s broke, as Allison learns when construction on the stables for her horse-training business comes to an abrupt halt, and the lucrative deal he thinks he’s going to strike with his old firm turns out to be another pipe dream. The illusory world Roy has built around himself begins to crumble, while Allison tires of pretending everything is fine and becomes increasingly contemptuous of him, while her teenaged daughter, adrift and also recognizing an opportunity as teenagers do, rebels against them and the changes they’ve forced upon her.

The Nest is a movie of privilege, not about its exercise, but about its mere existence. Roy and Allison worry about things like status and appearances because they can – somehow, even with his chicanery and extravagance, they still have enough money to support themselves, and send the kids to private school, and, in Allison’s case, to keep a cash box hidden in the house because she knows full well that Roy is unreliable when it comes to money. The wounds here are self-inflicted, and we do get some brief glimpses of why as we learn a little of Roy’s and Allison’s histories, so this film is concerned with the suffering we create for ourselves rather than that the world imposes on us – more so if we are poor, or nonwhite, or just outside the circles in which these two people travel.

Coon is a treasure, as always – she was the best part of the one season of The Leftovers I watched – and she gives Allison all of the texture that this three-dimensional character requires. She becomes openly derisive of Roy, but also reckless in her own way, and runs the gauntlet of emotions and moods over the course of the film, notably in her growing unease in this house that they can’t afford and that could hold them and all their possessions many times over. She also takes a small step that emphasizes her independence, or at least her refusal to be dependent on such an unreliable man, that also has the side benefit of embarrassing her husband when it comes to light. My cousin Jude is also quite good as Roy, and certainly convincing as that sort of suave confidence man who is just plausible enough that you can see what Allison may have seen in him, but Coon is the absolute star of this movie, and it’s a shame she’s received so little attention on the awards circuit for it, with just a few nominations from local film critics’ circles.

The Nest, like Durkin’s first film, is a slow burn, and the tension lies mostly beneath the movie’s surface, although there’s more of an overt climax in this story than there was in Martha Marcy May Marlene, and also a less ambiguous conclusion. It’s a more polished work, with stronger characterization and a better story arc, although the first film’s ending played better into the idea of a sort of existential terror that this film evokes but doesn’t entirely drive home. They’re both quiet, simple films, however, in a way that might make them hard to sell to a larger audience, but that draw you in because they have the immodesty of reality, and all the pain and suffering it can bring.