→ November 19, 2022
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Stick to baseball, 11/19/22.

For subscribers to the Athletic, I wrote two pieces this week, one on the Angels’ signing of Tyler Anderson and the Yankees’ re-signing of Anthony Rizzo, and one on four trades from earlier this week before teams had to set their 40-man rosters. I also held a Klawchat on Friday.

On The Keith Law Show, I spoke to Jessica Grose, New York Times opinion writer and author of the new book Screaming on the Inside: The Unsustainability of American Motherhood, about the book and what we might do to make being a working mother easier in the U.S. You can pre-order her book, which is due out December 6th, and you can listen and subscribe via iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.

With Twitter imploding, you can find me in a bunch of other places, including Facebook, Instagram, counter.social, and cohost, as well as here and on my free email newsletter, which went out again yesterday. Also, you can buy either of my books, Smart Baseball or The Inside Game, via bookshop.org at those links, or at your friendly local independent bookstore.

And now, the links…

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→ November 18, 2022
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Klawchat, 11/18/22.

You can see my writeup of four trades from earlier this week that came right before the 40-man deadline if you’re a subscriber to the Athletic.

Keith Law: When I get free, you won’t see me, here for dust. Klawchat.

Richard: Happy Thanksgiving Keith!!  Just a quickie:  with Jeremy Pena generally flying under the radar pre-season (not making the 100 prospects, etc…), was his strong season a credit to the major league staff, or rather he just wasn’t seen often enough by scouts in his brief minor league career?  Thanks!
Keith Law: I disagree with your premise. I had him second in the Astros’ system coming into the year and noted the jump in his exit velocities in 2021. He was hurt almost all of that season, though.

Signing Nimmo: It strikes me that Toronto wouldn’t have traded Hernandez without having a fairly certain replacement. Do you think they made the trade expecting to land Nimmo (he seems like the best fit) or do teams regularly gamble on this sort of thing?
Keith Law: I wonder if they believed Teoscar was more likely to repeat 2022 or regress and felt he wasn’t worth that expense given what else they could do with that cash in free agency or trade. He’s a solid player but hardly irreplaceable.

Signing Nimmo: Are Bellinger’s struggles mainly related to the shoulder injury or something else?
Keith Law: At this point, it seems odd to still blame the shoulder injury, but I suppose it’s possible.

TomBruno23: How can I enjoy the World Cup without thinking about how terrible Qatar and FIFA are?
Keith Law: You shouldn’t. I might watch a match or two, but my interest is low anyway with Italy out, and I won’t do anything to promote the event. The entire thing is repulsive.

addoeh: Any chance for a video chat, on whatever platform allows it, for your annual spatchcocking your turkey?
Keith Law: Yes, not sure when but I plan to carry on this annual tradition

The World’s Best Soundsystem: It seems like Miguel Vargas is going to get a legitimate shot to make the Dodgers roster out of Spring Training. Do you foresee anyone from the Busch-Pages-Outman-Amaya group getting regular ABs by mid season?
Keith Law: Busch seems like the closest/most likely of those four. Amaya’s not a regular, and I’m not sold on Outman as a regular given his swing and miss issues.

Noveau: Bit random, but putting aside the money they made, did the Upton brothers have disappointing careers?
Keith Law: I’d say so. Justin was done after age 30. How many highly athletic players like him are done that early without a catastrophic injury?

Jackie: When you BBWAA types gather in your secret clubhouse, do you ever question each other’s awards votes?  Do you go up to that one random voter who put Julio Urias 3rd on their ballot (and Daniel Bard 8th on the same ballot), and same, “Um, what?”   Or do you as a group just not care about the individual oddball votes, as long as the award ends up in the right place?
Keith Law: I care to some extent, like if a writer appears not to take his responsibility seriously, or has a history of favoring the home team (Tom Gage of Detroit, who of course won a Spink award, had Tigers atop his ballots several times when they were demonstrably not the best candidates). But  it’s not like we all see each other very often.

Jamie: What happened to Bobby Miller last year and has it affected the way you view his potential?
Keith Law: Um, nothing? what do you think happened to him?

KLB: Are you going to do a write-up of your NL ROY vote?
Keith Law: No, just because I had a couple of other things to write right as the award came out, and I’ve been busy with some family stuff. I had Strider over Harris because Strider’s season was so historic, but I have no issue with Harris winning.

PhillyJake: Pirates fan here.  Why does the owner of my team hate the the team?
Keith Law: Are you kidding? Bob Nutting loves the Pirates. He loves the free cash they generate even when they lose!

Sandra: Is AJ Preller’s approach going to lead to a sustainable contender or will shipping off every good prospect bite him in the ass by 2025?
Keith Law: Well, they contended in 2020, were in the race for a decent chunk of 2021, and then made the NLCS this year without their best player, so I’d say he’s already done that – but they could also hit a cliff in 2025 too.

Ray: Is Nick Gonzales the Pirates 2bman in 2023 and beyond?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Krontz: How do you think the Oakland stadium saga ends up?
Keith Law: In some way that screws over the taxpayers.

Moon Man: Do the Rays have significant lineup fixtures developing with Carson Williams and Mason Auer, or just some very smooth defense?
Keith Law: Auer has huge tools but I don’t think the contact skill is there to project him as a regular right now. Williams does too, but he was just 19 last year and he’s a shortstop, so he has a lot more time to improve and his position helps buoy his chances.

Guest: Hi Keith, thanks for the chat!  Seems the Mets really screwed up trading Endy Rodriguez for Joey Lucchesi.  Endy did not seem to be on anyone’s radar-was this a case of poor evaluation by the Mets?
Keith Law: Yes, it was a bad trade at the time that only looks worse now with Lucchesi getting hurt and Endy continuing to improve. He was enough of a prospect then that I praised the Pirates for snagging him in that deal (which sent Joe Musgrove to San Diego). I think Brodie just didn’t bother – he dealt prospects for big leaguers without regard to the relative values.

Mtd: Dave dombrowski calls you and makes you the GM starting now. What is your first player-related move you make?
Keith Law: They certainly don’t need me – they’re in very good hands with Sam Fuld. I’d say either work out an extension with Nola or go after Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts to play 2b.

Bill: Dodgers have until 5pm today. What would you do with Bellinger
Keith Law: Seems like a non-tender.

seans: Keith, what are your thoughts on Colt Keith and his performance in AZ?
Keith Law: He wasn’t very good for me … still young, but I wish I’d seen more from him at the plate.

Chris: Given the way the relief market has progressed, do you think a reevaluation of the way teams value elite relievers may be in order?
Keith Law: Until I see evidence that elite relievers’ performances over multi-year periods have changed, no.

Adam D.: How surprising has it been to you to see Farhan and company consistently miss on high draft picks? His entire philosophy is built on being to able to supply the major league club with cheap, young talent while also using some of that talent to trade for stars. Instead, seemingly everyone outside of Kyle Harrison has either stalled big time or is so far away that it might not matter when they’re ready because this regime may be gone by then.
Keith Law: Casey Schmitt is in the plus column for them, and I know Patrick Bailey has had back issues, which are pretty detrimental for a catcher, but I agree their first-round picks have not been inspiring. They’re all college guys (okay) but after whiffing on Hunter Bishop, a high-ceiling guy with huge exit velos and swing and miss concerns, they’ve gone lower ceiling and have missed there too. This year was a change in direction again, as Reggie Crawford is a very high-risk, high-ceiling college LHP coming off TJ.

Moon Man: After Adley was ROY runner-up, do you think the Birds are inclined to break camp with G-Rod in the rotation to increase his chances of taking home the hardware and bagging the extra draft pick?
Keith Law: I don’t think so given how they slow-played his return from an oblique injury this year and didn’t call him up to the big leagues at all.

Ben (MN): The Twins CF was not great when Buxton was out and involved way too many Gilberto Celestino at bats. In a situation with an extremely injury prone player like that, what would be your approach to the backup CF spot? Would you plug in the next person up, prioritize a corner outfielder who can handle center for 60-80 games if needed, or something else?
Keith Law: I like your second idea, getting a COF who can handle CF.

Tom: Keith, Nats SP Jake Irvin was recently described by Eric Longenhagen as a mid rotation SP and a 45FV. How do you evaluate him?
Keith Law: I’m quite a bit lower on him. Saw him in April, below average command and really scary arm action.

HH: Off-season reminder: the Australian Baseball League is up and running, and streams most of their games for free on YouTube. Witness the birth of a new market. Go Perth Heat.
Keith Law: Great tip.

Tom: Who should wsh draft with the first pick in rule 5 draft
Keith Law: No idea. I hate the rule 5 draft. The CBA in 2010 gutted it and the MLBPA missed a chance to fight for players’ rights. The available player pool has very few prospects in it and the results are even worse – in the last three rule 5 drafts, I think the only decent big leaguer has been Garrett Whitlock. Akil Baddoo had one okay season and then was awful in season 2; a team with a better system probably would have outrighted him by now.

Ben (MN): I went on a trip to Ireland this spring and went on an Irish literature kick after visiting the Irish writer’s museum. I’ve especially enjoyed reading modern Irish authors like Kevin Barry. Do you recommend any Irish authors other than the obvious ones (Joyce, Wilde, Shaw, etc.).
Keith Law: David Mitchell, Flann O’Brien, John Banville. Plus Anna Burns’s Milkman.

Chris: The Astros’ farm system has been ranked by many outlets as being a bottom-five system the last few years, yet they continue to produce home-grown talent? Is there anything you have seen in their graduated prospects you think you (or any other pundits) missed while they were in the minors?
Keith Law: Who have they produced other than Peña in the last two years? It’s a lot of guys who were already up and then improved in the majors, which is still a credit to the org but doesn’t impact their rankings in any of our eyes – Framber Valdez is a great development story, but he hasn’t counted as part of their farm system since the 2019 rankings.

Christian (Raleigh, NC): Hi Keith — As a fellow Agatha Christie enthusiast, I appreciate your review of ‘See How They Run’ and hope to see it soon. I am very much looking forward to ‘Glass Onion’ as well. Do you think we will see more of the classic-style whodunits in theaters and/or on TV given the success of  movies like Knives Out, etc.? I would definitely watch…
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely. The American movie industry is as risk-averse as it comes. If the budget is more than a few pennies, the movie has to be a reboot, a sequel, or a knockoff of something else successful. Or by Jordan Peele.

Josh: Of all the shortstops do you believe that Correa will age the best?
Keith Law: Yes. Helps that he’s the youngest.
Keith Law: If you give him and Judge deals of the same length – say, 8 years – you’re getting both of their age 31-35 years, but you’re getting Correa’s age 28-30 seasons and Judge’s age 36-38 seasons.

Don Keedic: Who is the bigger injury risk: Rodon or Nimmo?
Keith Law: Oh Rodón, for sure. He’s a pitcher.

Mike: After seeing his rookie year, how likely is it that Oneil Cruz reaches his ceiling? And what would that look like? Seemed like he started making adjustments towards the end of the year, giving me hope he won’t be a .200 hitter
Keith Law: He was good enough in the minors that I am not less bullish on him now after a partial season in the majors that had some very high points amidst the struggles.

Samwise: Given that players on megadeals mostly aren’t worth the amount they’re paid in their final years, but also that you’re not going to land one without a willingness to commit those extra years – how far would you be comfortable going on Judge (if you had the money/need)?  Six years at a high AAV, understanding that the last 2 might be rough?  Seven?
Keith Law: I’m fine with six years with that understanding. It’s the talk of eight to ten years that makes me roll my eyes. That’s talk -radio stuff.

Prospect hound: What are your current thoughts about Matt McLain?  Average gonna be there?  Can he be above avg reg?
Keith Law: Fringe regular at this point. Not enough impact and definitely not a SS.

Francis Ford Coppola: You’re not a huge fan of my first two “The Godfather” films? I believe they’re not on your list of the top movies from the 1970s.
Keith Law: I don’t recall ever posting a list of my favorite movies of the 1970s.

Baseball: It’s Fun!: Many predictions see Adam Macko as a future lockdown reliever. What in particular holds him back from being a starter, besides durability? Is it something mechanical you think the Blue Jays (who seem to view him as a starter) could unlock, or is relief a surer bet?
Keith Law: Durability is by far the biggest reason. I also don’t think he has the command.

Jim: Keith, thanks as always.  Any thoughts (or care) about who’s going to be the House Minority leader?  (And nice shade by Pelosi saying she served under 4 Presidents when it’s been since Clinton…)
Keith Law: I’m glad it will be someone under 60.

Jay: Should the Angels trade Ohtani this winter?  I don’t see a realistic way they’re contenders  in 2023, and he seems like a guy looking to bolt for more successful pastures.  I can’t fathom what a reasonable return for him would be.
Keith Law: They should, but they won’t. I did hear, sort of third-hand, that he produces so much revenue for the team that no trade could make financial sense for them. And I believe that.

Gandalf: Who are a couple injury-prone or injury-history free agents that you see as a good gamble for 2023?  Heaney, Conforto, Brantley?
Keith Law: Yep, all three were on my top 50 free agents ranking. Conforto does worry me with his lower exit velocities in 2021 … this was a guy who needed a bit better contact quality, not worse.

Alex: No surprise Joc accepted the Giants QO but how surprised were you they offered him one?  They must think we no shifts allowed next year his production is going to go way up.
Keith Law: Maybe they just valued him as close to the QO number and preferred the devil they knew on a one-year deal than perhaps having to replace him with someone else on a two- or three-year deal without getting any more production.

Heather: Any red flags you see in Triston Casas, or should the Red Sox pencil him in for 150 games at first base next year?
Keith Law: I think he should get the majority of starts at 1b next year.

Gary R: Genuinely not trying to be a jerk, but how do you reconcile “I might watch a match or two” and “the entire thing is repulsive”? I ask because I am personally torn – I want to watch but it seems like tuning into any matches is just giving them my support in a small way.
Keith Law: What does me watching, say, the Wales-U.S. match (important in this household) do to support the World Cup? Very little. And once those teams are out I doubt I’ll watch another minute.

John: Sad news about Seth Romero.   Given that his curveball was once ++, will someone take a chance on him since it was “only” alcohol and weed?
Keith Law: His curveball wasn’t ++. His changeup was. He struggled with the breaking ball, and with control, and of course off the field. I don’t think he gets another chance until he shows some evidence that he’s willing to undertake major changes in his life. I hope he does so.

J.D.: After allowing Tyler Anderson to leave, are the Dodgers OK with what they have or do they need to go out and sign a good starter?
Keith Law: I bet they go sign someone.

chauncey: you opinion on the mlb award winners?
Keith Law: I think those were my choices for everything but NL RoY (ironic, since I actually voted on that), and I said above I’m totally fine with it. I don’t care about MoY. That’s just whoever ran a team that won more regular season games than expected.

HH: Why don’t more teams try to do what Cleveland did with Tony Wolters and try to convert more blocked prospects to catcher? Cleveland alone has a glut in IF, why wouldn’t they try again?
Keith Law: I don’t have a great feel for why more teams don’t do it other than perhaps risk aversion (don’t want to screw up a good prospect?). Wolters is a great example because he had a MLB career only because they converted him.

Heather: Any predictions on the upcoming “Contemporary HOF” vote next month?  Do Bonds/Clemens peers care less about the PED issues?  Any chance the committee says, “Yeah, all eight of these guys were a lot better than Harold F. Baines, so they all get in”?
Keith Law: I doubt Bonds/Clemens get in. I’m still fuming that Whitaker isn’t even on the ballot. It’s a fucking joke.

Jack: Hey Keith.  Love your chats. Do you believe Tatis when he says he got clostebol from ringworm medication?
Keith Law: I do not.
Keith Law: I’ve had ringworm, because I like to garden. It’s really annoying. It’s also easily treated with an antifungal.

Jamie O: If Jake Eder survives TJ, how high is his ceiling?
Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter, maybe more.

Villepont: Which top prospects with the shine worn off are prime for a change-of-scenery trade?  Kelenic, Adell, Robles?
Keith Law: I read Adell as “Adley” at first and was like, whoa, what did I miss
Keith Law: Those are all good choices although I think Kelenic can and will improve in Seattle. Forrest Whitley, maybe? Senzel comes to mind but I don’t know that changing orgs will do anything for him.

Paco: Hola desde España! f you could use statcast on any ballplayers of yesterday, who and what would you want to see? I’ve always
Keith Law: Willie Mays is the easy choice, no? Sprint speed and exit velocity?

Romorr: I know it’s hard to put a successful off-season on money spent. But with Elias saying it’s liftoff from here, and a payroll of 41 million heading into 2023, what is the least amount of money spent for this to be considered a successful off-season in Oriole land?
Keith Law: Really depends on who they get. They could spend a lot of money for limited return.

Holly: The worst Christmas song of all time (besides Christmas shoes) is?
Keith Law: “Step Into Christmas” or “Simply Having a Wonderful Christmas Time.” Both make me want to clean my ears with Brillo pads.

Jesse B: What are you thoughts on Daniel Lynch at this point? Does he still have a decent upside or backend starter?
Keith Law: He seems like job 1 for the new coaching staff in KC. They have had way too many top-flight pitching prospects fail to launch after reaching the majors. I think the new regime & pitching coach will at least help one or two of that group figure it out, and Lynch seems like the best bet, as he was the best prospect coming up and has the best arsenal right now.

Jay: Ten and a half months, and counting, left in the Chaim Bloom Era in Boston.  Are you as giddy with anticipation as New England is for the first Monday after the 2023 season?
Keith Law: No, but I’m not delusional.

Jamie: I guess I just meant statistically it didn’t seem like he had the great year that was expected. But I also wasn’t exactly watching his starts.
Keith Law: re Bobby Miller? He struck out over 30% of batters faced in AA and AAA with low walk rates and acceptable HR rates. I’m not sure what you’re seeing here but he’s fine.

Alex in Austin: If you had to pick one from this group for next year, who would you take: Gunnar Henderson, Josh Jung, Nolan Gorman.
Keith Law: Henderson.

Guest: Can you think of any logical reason to add a player to your 40-man ahead of the Rule5 draft who’s never played above A-ball?  Asking for my friend, Mike Rizzo, GM of the Nationals…
Keith Law: Because you believe someone else might select him and try to keep him.

Marani: Thanksgiving’s cool.  What’s your dumbest American holiday?  I have to go with “St. Patrick’s Day”.  What’s the point?
Keith Law: As someone with a bit of Irish heritage, I have zero interest in St. Patrick’s Day, also known as “Amateur Night.”

Tim: Isnt every elite reliever a failed starter?  Seems like if you can get 5-6 innings out of a guy vs. 1 inning per appearance you would every time.
Keith Law: Yes.

Salami Iconic: I know your feelings about Volpe but am not sure I have a clear understanding of how you view Oswald and Oswaldo- potential above-average regulars?
Keith Law: Cabrera no, Peraza maybe.

Kevin: What would you do to change the MLB offseason to make it more condensed like the other pro sports? I feel like if the MLB offseason ended by Xmas would be ideal as then you get football playoffs up to when pitchers and catchers report
Keith Law: I think an artificial deadline like that might only help owners, and I don’t want to do anything to help owners. They are doing just fine on their own.

Josh: Are you going to write up the Sea-Ari trade from yesterday? Would love your take
Keith Law: Probably not. Lewis has pretty much zero history of staying healthy and all the missed time has hurt him at the plate too. I’d rather have Hummel.

RAWagman: Klaw – as Twitter continues its rapid descent into hateful chaos, do you plan to run newsletters more often, or switch to posting your thoughts on a different platform?
Keith Law: I’ll stay there while it’s up, but I just sent out another newsletter today (it’s free! sign up here) and I’m on a few other sites as we wait to see what happens.

Finnegan: Garrett Whitlock is often cited on Red Sox message boards as being Chaim Bloom’s “best” move.  What am I missing?  I’m seeing an injury-prone middle reliever with vaguely above-average stuff.
Keith Law: Got 4+ WAR in two years for $50K and took a reliever from their direct rival. Nice move, no?

Ray: will Dalton Rushing stay at C! And where should he start the 2023 season? He tore up Low A.
Keith Law: Yes, and double A.

Anthony: I think Sox need to make Devers their best offer now and if he doesn’t accept trade him.They cannot afford to lose him next year for a draft pick.What say You?
Keith Law: Sure. I guess you could trade him in July, too.

Dr. Rich: Is Brent Rooker a pick up of note for rebuilding A’s or just another in a revolving door of 40 man COFs in the last 12 months?
Keith Law: I like Rooker for what he is but he is a stretch for everyday duty. Great Twitter follow, though.

Campbell: Now that he’s finally (fingers crossed) gone, what will you miss most about Tony LaRussa?
Keith Law: The easy to mock in-game strategic blunders?

Michael: Is Matt Mervis going to be Bryan LaHair 2.0? Or is he just a late bloomer because Duke had him pitch?
Keith Law: LaHair was nothing at all, and I don’t Mervis is that. Calling him a late bloomer is a bit of wishful thinking, though.

Quinn: Any plans to review Tár or Armageddon Time?
Keith Law: Yes but I have to see them first.
Keith Law: I have a policy of not reviewing movies until I see them. It’s an integrity thing.

CW: Lucchesi was traded by the sex pest, not Brodie.
Keith Law: Ah, thank you.

vogslaw: Wasn’t Trevor Stephan a Rule 5 success for the Guardians?
Keith Law: If that’s a success, it proves my point. He’s a solid but replaceable middle reliever. That’s what you get in the rule 5 draft.

Kevin: most overrated traditional thanksgiving dish? For me, it’s the turkey, better cold on a sandwich.
Keith Law: Longtime readers know I hate the gloppy gooey mess of green bean casserole. I also really don’t like any traditional sweet potato dish … they’re already sweet, why the fuck did you put brown sugar in there? And marshmallows? Are you eight years old? They’re a root vegetable, not Lucky Charms. Just double the stuffing and move on already.

Moe Mentum: Scott Kingery – what happened, and what’s next?
Keith Law: Phillies messed with his swing and he’s never quite been the same.

Caleb: Will be playing 7 Wonders for the first time this weekend.  Any advice for a newb?
Keith Law: It can be intimidating because there is so much to track on the cards. The main advice I’d have is try to balance your card plays so you have access to all six of the game’s resources by the end of Age II, either on brown/gray cards you played yourself or via yellow cards that let you ‘buy’ them from your two neighboring players.

Moe Mentum: I’ve never read an Agatha Christie novel. Where do I start?
Keith Law: Death on the Nile. I think that’s the first Poirot novel.’

Tom: What would you think of a Gallen, Kelly, Jameson, Nelson, and Pfaadt rotation?
Keith Law: Solid, but you might need a little more in that division. I’m not totally sure Jameson’s a starter although I’d start him out there.

Guest: Is Austin Wells a candidate to play C/1B for the Yankees this year? Do you think they’ll give him time at other positions this year for a multi-positional role?
Keith Law: I do not think he can catch on more than an emergency basis in the majors.

alex: DL Hall more likely long term, starter or reliever? Any comps based on stuff + lack of command recently?
Keith Law: I will continue to bet on his athleticism and that his command will improve. It’s not “recently,” as he’s had command and control issues since high school, but he went from a 15.6% walk rate in high A in 2019 to a 13.4% walk rate between AAA and the majors last year.

Guest: Is the Martian on the radar to contribute next season? He’ll enter this season with about 100 PA between AA and the AFL
Keith Law: Maybe in September.

Ken: Billy Beane moving to a “senior advisor” role for the A’s. Does this mean he’s basically one-day-a-week consultant? Any meaning for staying in Oakland versus moving to Vegas?
Keith Law: I don’t think this is any real change.

Ken from Entertainment 720: I know Clayton Beeter is a 50 grade on MLB.  Does he have top 3 upside or is he a 4/5 guy?  Also who is the  most likely prospect to end up at first base in the current Yankee system?
Keith Law: Durability & questions about third pitch make me think back end starter.

Jack: You don’t think Harris deserved NL ROY?
Keith Law: I said twice that I thought he was deserving.

David: Do you ever feel like there are too many books and not enough time? I have a list of things I want to read and every time I finish one I feel like I’ve added four more.
Keith Law: Always. I think I have 20-25 in my queue right now. Currently reading Nadine Gordimer’s The Conservationist, which I got for like £3 at a used books stall in Cardiff in August.
Keith Law: I do tend to read books in the order in which I got them, especially physical ones since it’s like a FIFO queue in real life.

Clay, Rutherford: Are you excited that the WBC is returning in the spring?
Keith Law: I am. I think it’s great for the sport.
Keith Law: Very much rooting for Team Czechia.

Appa Yip Yip: The Jays added Spencer Horwitz to their roster. Do you think he has a big league future? Can he stand in LF and not look foolish?
Keith Law: Tough choice there – if they didn’t protect him, someone takes him, but I think he’s an emergency call-up guy. No position, nowhere near the bat for a DH/1B type.

Greasy Nick: Would you rather work in a fine dining kitchen or an MLB front office?
Keith Law: I’m only qualified for one of those jobs.

Ken: Is there a reason that posters keep using Bloom’s full name when asking you about him?
Keith Law: I can’t possibly imagine what you mean…

BK: Kevin Smith had a rough year in his first season in Oakland. Do you see him bouncing back as the regular at third or will he fill more of a utility role?
Keith Law: Still buying.

davealden53: Question about the Tyler Anderson signing.  With the Dodgers’ qualifying offer of $19.65M, Anderson only needed to earn $10M each in 2024 and 2025 to exceed the deal he signed with the Angels.  That would seem a fairly low hurdle.  Does this imply that Anderson is risk-averse or is stability worth the potential lost income?
Keith Law: If you had his injury history, with just one good year since ~2017, wouldn’t you lock in the extra $20 million guaranteed?
Keith Law: I think it’s very rational.

James: What is the greatest individual tool you have ever scouted.  Like for example amateur Bryce Harper power
Keith Law: Joey Gallo’s power.

Old Hoss Radbourn: With twitter coming to an end, should we admit we are the same person?
Keith Law: We take this to our grave(s).
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for today. Keep an eye out … um, somewhere, maybe Twitter, but IG Live if Twitter isn’t functioning, probably on Wednesday as I take your questions while spatchcocking our turkey. Thanks as always for reading and following. Have a wonderful holiday!

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→ November 16, 2022
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Dungeons, Dice, & Danger.

Richard Garfield created two of the best-known properties in tabletop gaming – Magic: the Gathering, the original collectible card game and the most popular deckbuilding game ever; and King of Tokyo, a dice-rolling, push-your-luck game that I think is fantastic for family game nights. Now he’s joined the roll-and-write craze with Dungeons, Dice, and Danger, which takes the format and marries it to that classic of role playing games, the dungeon crawl.

Dungeons, Dice, and Danger comes with five dice, four white and one black. On each player’s turn, they’ll roll all five dice and then must create two pairs from the five to mark off two spaces on their scoresheets, which show one of four different dungeons. The scoresheets have maps, with a number in each regular room space, and some spaces that show monsters and have one or more numbers and various boxes to fill. You can only check off a box adjacent to one you’ve already marked, or one of the green start boxes around the edges of the map. The other players may also mark off rooms, but they only get to use the white dice to form those pairs, unless they use one of their three special black die markers to use the black one on that particular turn.

Monsters require multiple turns to defeat; you must roll any of the numbers shown in the monster’s room, and then mark off one small box in that room each time you get a matching number. Once you’ve filled in all of the boxes, you’ve killed the beast, earning several gems (marked on a track at the bottom of the page), and may proceed to any rooms through that one. Some monsters show numbers that are only outlined; you have to visit the adjoining room with that number to ‘activate’ that number in the monster’s room, allowing you to use that roll to deal damage to the monster.

The first player to defeat a monster gets 2-3 gems as a reward; subsequent players will still get one. Every player can also gain a gem by marking off any room with a gem in it, and can gain 3 gems by completing either of the two objectives in the lower left of the scoresheet, which vary by map. At game end, you get three points per gem, and on maps with gold in certain rooms, you get two points per gold pile marked.

There are also two treasure rooms on each map, and when you mark one of those rooms, you get to choose one of the three special benefits on the right side of the map. You can get three extra black die spaces for the rest of the game; you can absorb three damage points without marking the spaces on your health track; or you can mark off two rooms adjacent to ones you’ve already visited. There are also spaces where you just have to have two matching numbers on the dice, but it can be any pair, which isn’t explained in the rulebook.

There’s a catch, however: As in dungeon crawl games, you can ‘die’ in DD&D. If you can’t mark off two rooms or squares on any turn, you lose one health point for each dice pair you couldn’t use. There are ten spaces in the health track, and if you lose all ten, you’re out of the game. There’s also a points penalty after the first two lost health points, going up to 20 points off in the last space. You can also lose health points for being the first person to defeat the big foozle on each map, usually two boxes checked, although you get up to 6 gems for the achievement.

There’s also a solo mode, as in most roll-and-write games. Here, you are always the “passive” player – you can never use the black die without marking off one of those spaces on the right side of your sheet. You always get the maximum reward for defeating a monster, and always take the damage when you beat the biggest one on a map. You can avoid the damage from failing to use one pair of dice if you used the other pair to deal damage to a monster.

There’s some strategy to DD&D, because you’re trying to set yourself up to have as many possibilities as you can for the next roll. There aren’t that many 7s on any map, and not enough 6s and 8s. Mapping out future moves is the one bit of control you can have in the game … but ultimately, I think there’s too much randomness. Planning only gets you so far when the maps are drawn in such a way that as the game nears its end, you’re going to have only a few options available to you, and you don’t have any way to alter the dice. That’s not to say that the game is too difficult; I played all four of the maps, solo, and scored 90+ on three of them, topping out at 111 on the third map, all of which put me in the top two tiers in the scoring guide. I busted completely on the fourth one, which I think requires a fair bit of luck on the dice to complete, and busted at the very end of the second one, still scoring in the 90s because I defeated every monster but the last one. In most turns, though, I had one valid choice. There was just a single set of pairs that would both mark off rooms or boxes on my scoresheet without requiring me to take damage. The result was that the game felt rote, rather than one where I was in reasonable control of things. I love roll-and-writes, and I could see why someone might love this, especially with a theme I haven’t seen in the genre before, but this was just below the bar for me, a C+ game rather than a B-.

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→ November 15, 2022
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See How They Run.

The success of Knives Out in 2019 didn’t just spawn a highly-awaited sequel, Glass Onion, which hits theaters later this month – it has spawned attempts to capitalize on its success, with two similar movies coming out this fall, See How They Run and Amsterdam. These movies are like catnip to me, as I love mysteries and detective stories in general, and Agatha Christie stories in particular, having read 50 of her novels and four of her short story collections. See How They Run doubles down on this, as it’s a period piece mystery that involves Christie’s famous play The Mousetrap and eventually features an appearance by the Queen of Murder herself as a character. So while I recognize this film’s limitations, I also loved just about every minute of it. (It’s streaming free now on HBO Max, or rentable everywhere, including Amazon.)

See How They Run is a bit more than a perfunctory murder mystery, though, as the script engages in some legerdemain, even starting out in one direction before the murder takes place and the whole thing shifts. After that point, we get our intrepid investigators, the overeager young Constable Stalker (Saoirse Ronan), who is one of the first women in that position in the London police; and Inspector Stoppard (Sam Rockwell), the drunken detective of stereotype. Someone has been murdered after the 100th performance of The Mousetrap, and, of course, everyone’s a suspect, from the actors to the playwright to the stage director. Constable Stalker is new to the homicide beat, so she starts jumping to conclusions, assuming every suspect is guilty, giving the film the biggest of its running gags, although Ronan’s performance makes it work. There is, of course, another murder, and the script plays around with the tropes of the British murder mystery, many of which Christie invented, before getting to the identity of the murder.

The script is about 80% formula, 20% clever, but this is a formula I happen to love, and there is at least a playfulness in the script that nods to the inherent predictability of it all. The core mystery is both well hidden and well written, credible with enough clues dropped along the way that at least in hindsight you can see how you might have figured it out. (I did not.) There is also some humor in here, not as much as Knives Out offered, but a number of laugh-out-loud moments for me from the bantering and a few sight gags. Your mileage may vary, of course.

What really makes this movie, though, is Ronan’s performance. We’ve seen Ronan be funny, including her Oscar-nominated turn in Lady Bird, but we’ve never seen her be this silly, and she seems to throw herself completely into it. Her comic timing is great, but she manages to make Stalker a comic character without making her seem totally un-serious. Stalker’s overzealousness actually leads to a significant blunder, although even that scene is also kind of funny, but she’s never an object of pity or derision, and Ronan’s portrayal is the main reason. Stalker is earnest but green, and her errors, even when played for laughs, are borne of inexperience rather than incompetence.

Rockwell, on the other hand, is a replacement-level detective here, with a generic British accent and nondescript mannerisms beyond a slight limp that itself becomes fodder for the script’s mockery of the formula. I’m not sure why Rockwell was chosen for a role when there are plenty of English actors available, but he doesn’t have a real direction here – he doesn’t lean into the role and ham it up, but he also doesn’t give the character any urgency or gravitas. The conventions of the genre almost require one or the other, and instead Rockwell gives a fine but ultimately forgettable performance. The remainder of the cast is mostly big names or great actors in bit parts. The one major exception is David Oyelowo, who plays the closeted writer Mervyn Cocker-Norris and is clearly having a blast, while also getting a good amount of screen to chew. Adrien Brody is very good but doesn’t log enough minutes, and Ruth Wilson, who was stunning as Jane Eyre in the 2006 BBC mini-series of that name, is barely in the film at all.

The script does offer a bunch of Easter eggs for hardcore Christie fans, some of which appear in this EW story, although I won’t mention them here beyond the one in the title – the original name of The Mousetrap was Three Blind Mice. I caught a couple, but clearly missed the majority, although I admire the cleverness in slipping so many tiny nods to Christie, her works, and her adherents into the script. That may have ultimately worked against the finished film, however, as there’s so much Christie-ness or those that there’s probably less plot and less humor than there could have been. It doesn’t fare that well in comparison to Knives Out for that very reason. If you liked that film and also just like this genre, you’ll probably enjoy See How They Run as I did. If you aren’t a fan of witty murder mysteries, though, this isn’t going to have the same broader appeal that Rian Johnson’s hit film did.

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→ November 12, 2022
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Stick to baseball, 11/12/22.

For subscribers to the Athletic, I wrote a piece on the folly of the five-year deal for Edwin Díaz, based on the dismal history of deals of four years or longer for free-agent relievers. This was on the heels of last week’s ranking of the top 50 free agents this winter.

Over at Paste, I reviewed The Spill, a Pandemic-like cooperative game where players work to contain the damage from a Deepwater Horizon-like oil spill.

My free email newsletter returned last weekend, and with Twitter possibly on its way out, that’s one good way to keep up with everything I write. I’ve also set up accounts on counter.social and cohost, in case either of those proves a worthy alternative (the former is actually okay, if a bit quiet). Also, you can buy either of my books, Smart Baseball or The Inside Game, via bookshop.org at those links, or at your friendly local independent bookstore. I hear they make great holiday gifts.

And now, the links…

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→ November 9, 2022
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The Dark Frontier.

Eric Ambler was a British author of spy thrillers whose first novel, The Dark Frontier, started out as an attempt to satirize the genre. Written while he was a copywriter for an ad agency in London, The Dark Frontier morphed as it went along into a more serious spy novel, one that proved highly influential and set him on a new career as novelist and later screenwriter. His works influenced many later practitioners of the form, including (according to Wikipedia) Graham Greene and John Le Carré.

Dr. Henry Barstow is a mild-mannered British physicist who ends up drafted into a bit of international intrigue involving the eastern European nation of Ixania, which appears to be attempting to build a weapon of mass destruction. The plot partially foreshadows (and perhaps influenced?) that of North by Northwest, but this time, Barstow suffers a head injury, after which he decides Barstow is just a cover story, and he’s really Conway Carruthers, international man of mystery and scientist-adventurer who believes that the Ixanians are a threat to world peace. He sets about trying to stop them from developing this weapon while working with the Ixanian resistance and avoiding the arms dealer who tried to rope him into the conflict in the first place.

You can see the tonal shift in the novel a little before its midpoint. The first half feels jocular, even silly, as Ambler sets up the most absurd situation for a quiet, nerdy scientist, right down to the point where he gets bonked on the head. When he wakes up and thinks he’s James Bond, it would have been so easy for Ambler to turn him into Austin Powers, bumbling his way through intrigue after intrigue and narrowly avoiding getting himself or his comrades killed. Not long after Barstow’s transformation into Carruthers, however, the novel’s tone and pace change, and suddenly we are in full-on spy novel mode, with great action scenes, including chases and shootouts, and some Bond-esque cleverness (Fleming was another writer who credited Ambler for influencing his own work). The parodic humor of the first half is almost completely absent in the second half, even to the point where you might think Barstow really is Carruthers, something Ambler seems to be playing with over the last few chapters.

I’m not a connoisseur of the spy novel, but I have enjoyed most of the ones I’ve read, including Greene’s “entertainments” (notably The Confidential Man), Le Carré’s The Spy Who Came in from the Cold, Erskine Childers’ The Riddle of the Sands, Dennis Wheatley’s Black August, and others. I didn’t write it up because I was on vacation for nearly two weeks when I read it, but I also liked Geoffrey Household’s Rogue Male, which is told from the first person and follows the spy after the incident as he tries to run from multiple international authorities. The protagonist, who is never named, is hunting in a nameless eastern European country and aims his rifle at the dictator but doesn’t pull the trigger. He’s caught by the secret police, who try to kill him but fail, after which he goes on the run, making his way back to England, where the authorities can’t help him because he’s a suspected assassin, so he continues to hide in Dorset while the agents of the dictator, who’ve learned he’s still alive, hunt for him. It’s a little slow in parts because Household is so bent on a realistic depiction of his character’s predicament, but also has some great action sequences and chase scenes, with a tremendous denouement that I didn’t see coming.

The Dark Frontier is more fun than that, without skimping on the action stuff, although in the end its dichotomous nature works against it a little too much. I picked this after reading something about Ambler’s role in the history of the spy novel, figuring his first one was the place to start, but after reading this book – and enjoying it, just to be clear – I felt like this was a tune-up, and maybe some of his subsequent novels, where he has his purpose in mind from the beginning, would be even better.

Next up: Just about done with Jess Grose’s Screaming on the Inside: The Unsustainability of American Motherhood.

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→ November 7, 2022
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Museum Suspects.

Phil Walker-Harding has been busy this year, with at least five brand-new titles I can think of hitting the U.S. market as well as the redesign of the 2006 game Fjords (originally someone else’s) and a new Adventure Games entry. One of the new games is Museum Suspects, which is kind of just the kids’ deduction game Outfoxed redone as a game for slightly older kids, with a fun deduction element but a huge random factor that makes it hard to play it well.

In Museum Suspects, you build the central board by placing tiles showing sixteen animals with different, ridiculous outfits on in a 4×4 grid, and players will peek at clues to try to eliminate some of those suspects to figure out which one(s), if any, committed a robbery at the museum. There are eight different clue types that differ each game; during setup, you’ll pick one of the four clue cards from each category and place them face down along the sides of the board in random order. Some clues tell you to eliminate an entire row or column, or a quadrant, while others tell you to eliminate all suspects with a hat or a scarf of a certain color. The game lasts six rounds, so you don’t get to see all the clues, and requires that you place a token on a suspect in every round.

On your turn, you choose a clue you want to look at. If it has no investigation tokens on it, you just get to look, but if it already has a token on it, you must have a token of equal or higher value to be able to look at it. After you’ve peeked, you place one of your numbered investigation tokens on the clue, making sure it’s at least the same value as the highest token that was already on it. You’ll marking off several squares on your personal scoresheet to eliminate up to four more suspects for each clue. Afterwards, you place another of your investigation tokens on one of the suspects on the board. If that suspect turns out to be one of the guilty parties, you will receive that many points at game-end. If you believe that none of the sixteen is guilty, you can place a token on the Emergency Exit tile to try to gain points for that outcome instead.

After six rounds, you reveal all eight clues and all players jointly flip over suspect tiles as the clues eliminate them. Then you hand out points based on the values of players’ investigation tiles on the remaining suspects – a player may place more than one such tile on a suspect, just doing so on different turns – and determine who has the highest total. There’s no tiebreaker, but it’s possible for nobody to win if you all guessed wrong.

The core mechanic here is almost identical to the deduction part of Outfoxed, which is a very fun cooperative game for kids as young as 5. To distinguish itself and play well with older kids, Museum Suspects really needed to do something different beyond making it a competitive game. If we knew which clue type was in which location, for example, you could plan which clues to target – you might see that looking at the clue showing one type of animal would be more fruitful than looking at the clue about a type of hat. Instead, it’s just random, and so are your choices – and you have no idea whether it’s worth going after a certain clue with one of your stronger investigation tokens. The game also isn’t great with two players, because the small competitive aspect of the investigation tokens on the clue cards doesn’t work – you can more or less avoid each other’s clues and tokens, and neither of you will have any incentive to use your more valuable ones on clue cards.

Museum Suspects just misses the mark for me; I’d actually rather play Outfoxed, even though that’s clearly a game for younger players. This game doesn’t let you develop any sort of strategy, and even in a game for ages 8+, that’s a minimum requirement. You could house-rule it, where you know what clue is placed in each location, following the precise order that’s shown in the rulebook (which isn’t meant to dictate their placement – I asked Walker-Harding and he confirmed). I judge games as is, though, and I didn’t think this one worked.

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→ November 6, 2022
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How High We Go in the Dark.

Sequoia Nagamatsu’s How High We Go in the Dark was one of three finalists for this year’s inaugural Ursula K. Leguin Prize for Fiction, losing the ultimate honor to Khadija Abdalla Bajaber’s The House of Rust. Nagamatsu’s work is a short story novel, a series of connected anecdotes that involve related characters, all of it set in a dystopian but easy to foresee near future where climate change is melting permafrost, thawing out a virus that causes a horrifying global pandemic. Each story after the opening one explores the ramifications of these two events, ranging from the ridiculous to the tragic, but always returning to the humanity of their characters.

The initial story sets up everything that follows, as we meet Dr. Cliff Miyashiro at an archaeological dig site in eastern Siberia where his daughter, Clara, fell and died shortly after discovering the remains of a possibly-Neanderthal girl who died of mysterious causes with strange markings on and near her body. It emerged as the ice melted due to climate change, which also activated a virus in the corpse that quickly infects several members of the camp. By the start of the second story, it has become a global pandemic, and, in almost direct contrast to SARS-CoV-2, it is far more deadly to children, which leads to especially perverse ideas – like an amusement park where parents take their gravely ill children to be euthanized on a rollercoaster.

Within a few stories, Nagamatsu has reshaped society around the pandemic, making funerary companies the most valuable in the world that also control the cryptocurrencies that take over the world’s economy. It goes a bit too far – the company that manufactures the spaceship that heads out in search of another habitable planet is Yamato-Musk, which seems especially embarrassing for Nagamatsu after the last week – but that’s clearly his concept, pushing every idea to the farthest possible boundary and then exploring how his characters respond to it. In that sense, it’s very Philip K. Dick, but less insane, with at least some grounding in actual science, at least to the extent that he’s anticipating readers’ first objections to some of his concepts. There are a pair of stories that broke my suspension of disbelief, but even in those cases, I could go with it because they were both well-written and focused on the characters rather than the impossible facts.

Nagamatsu eschews easy answers, and one possible reading of How High We Go in the Dark is as an  extremely bleak outlook on the near future of our planet and our species, that climate change is inevitable (true) and we are totally unprepared for its impact (partly true), that our current pandemic, which isn’t mentioned in the book, is a harbinger of more and larger ones to come (likely). I didn’t read it that way, as grim as the subject matter is. Nagamatsu’s characters all look forward and try to find not just ways to survive, but reasons. There’s just one direct suicide in the book, and some euthanasia of the very sick, but the vast majority of the characters here are fully engaged in living. Even Dennis, a character in multiple stories who would probably have been equally at odds and ends in a non-catastrophe world, is still striving for something, even if he has no idea what it might be.

Even with such dismal subject matter, How High We Go in the Dark is one of the most compelling and fastest reads I’ve had in ages. Nagamatsu’s prose is clear and unadorned, hitting the right amount of detail when he’s delving into science or his speculations. There’s so much more focus on people than ideas here that the work rises above most cli-fi or other stories of realistic dystopias, up to the level of Station Eleven, a novel that turned a global pandemic that crumbled civilization into a story of great beauty around humanity, kindness, and the enduring power of art. Nagamatsu deals more with the personal tragedies of his characters and how society might grapple with mass deaths that involve far more children than our current pandemic, where the world has largely shrugged at the deaths of 1 in every 1000 people. It’s a remarkable novel and thought experiment, one of the best things I’ve read this year.

Next up: Jess Grose’s Screaming on the Inside: The Unsustainability of American Motherhood. I have an advance copy so I can read it before Jess comes on my podcast in two weeks.

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→ November 5, 2022
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Stick to baseball, 11/5/22.

For subscribers to the Athletic, I ranked the top 50 free agents in this year’s class, and held a Q&A about it that afternoon. Based on my Twitter replies, a lot of people looked at the raw rankings without reading any of the content. Good times!

My guest on the Keith Law Show this week was Caroline Criado Perez, author of the book Invisible Women: Data Bias in a World Designed for Menand host of the podcast Visible Women. You can listen and subscribe via iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Last week’s roundup went up late because of all the sportsball going on over the weekend, so I’m relinking it here for folks who missed it.

And now, the links…

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→ November 4, 2022
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A Desolation Called Peace.

Arkady Martine won the 2020 Hugo Award for Best Novel for A Memory Called Empire, the first in what is now the Teixcalaanli series of stories involving a character who has the memories of the man who preceded her as ambassador implanted into her brain. I despised it for its pretentiousness and its lack of character development, so I wasn’t exactly pleased to see the sequel, A Desolation Called Peace, won the same award this year. It offers more plot than the first novel did, and has one new, interesting character (giving it one more than its predecessor), but suffers from the same pretentious style and emphasis on all the wrong things.

Mahit Dzmare returns from the first novel as the ambassador from the outpost Lsel Station to the Teixcalaanli empire – you know we’re in outer space, because the letters are all in the wrong order! – but the story here goes well beyond her. Where Memory was a bit of a whodunit, as she tried to find out who assassinated the previous ambassador – and that’s whose memories she has in her brain, although it’s not just memories, but his entire persona. She’s part of a bigger story this time that involves an unknown species that has attacked Teixcalaanli settlers on a remote mining world, eviscerating the victims for no apparent reason, and then attacks a fleet of military ships with some sort of viscous substance that eats through metal and might be ingesting (dissolving?) the pilots. Mahit’s superiors want her to sabotage any Teixcalaanli attempts to negotiate peace with the aliens to protect Lsel’s interests and sovereignty. Meanwhile, the heir to the Teixcalaanli throne, a precocious eleven-year-old boy, finds himself involved in the discussions that ensue around how to proceed against the unknown enemy.

One some level, A Desolation Called Peace didn’t stand a chance coming in, because the same elements I found so pretentious in the first novel are still here. The constructed language is back, with the same overly complex grammar and unpronounceable or just plain weird phonemes, like “ezuazuacat” or “yaoklat.” So are the Teixcalaanli names, which involve a number and usually a noun, like Nineteen Adze, Eight Antidote (the heir to the throne), or Three Seagrass. It’s showy, except that it’s not showing anything. This is the stuff I would have found extremely cool when I was a teenager, but that’s not a compliment here – it’s a sign that the entire endeavor starts from the wrong place.

However, the story here exceeds that of the first novel, both in construction and in interest. It’s part Ender’s Game, part Imperial Radch series, part Star Trek: The Next Generation, and nothing here is all that original, but it’s at least reasonably entertaining. Eight Antidote, the future Teixcalaani emperor, is the best character to appear in either novel, which is also a low bar to clear, but given how uninteresting Mahit Dzmare is – which is quite a feat, given that she’s simultaneously two people – it’s a huge improvement. He’s not just some imp, nor is he a savant; he’s a smart kid, doing smart kid things, getting into trouble, but also finding his way through an adult world that he knows, one day, will revolve around him. Martine divides the story into three interwoven plot lines, one around Eight Antidote, one around Mahit Dzmare, and one around the military discussions.

The other saving grace of A Desolation Called Peace is the resolution, where all three storylines converge in a reasonably satisfying conclusion, albeit one that’s a bit derivative of one of the works cited above. Even with the mediocre writing, with heavy use of archaic or esoteric terms that have common equivalents, and the bizarre nomenclature of Teixcalaanli characters, it’s pretty quick-moving. I also appreciated the de-emphasis of Mahit Dzmare’s character and her implanted predecessor, which got old very quickly in the prior book. If you enjoyed A Memory Called Empire, you might enjoy this one even more, even though I’m still not a fan.

Next up: Sequoia Nagamatsu’s How High We Go in the Dark.

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