Saturday five, 10/17/15.

No new Insider content this week as I was writing up free agent capsules for the annual top 50 ranking, which will appear after the World Series at some point. I did review the Game of Thrones card game, which is surprisingly good (I hated the first GoT book), for Paste, and held a Klawchat on Thursday.

  • President Obama interviewed one of my favorite American novelists, Marilynne Robinson. She’s best known for the trio of novels, beginning with the Pulitzer winner Gilead, revolving around a family in Iowa, but her 1980 debut novel Housekeeping is the one on my top 100.
  • “Reporters don’t just find facts; they look for narratives.” Isn’t this a big problem? And, hey, what do we really know about the death of Osama bin Laden? Mark Bowden, one of the writers whose recounting of that story is questioned in the Times piece, responded in Vanity Fair.
  • ON a related note, the BBC’s Assignment radio program looks at the U.S.’s use of torture to fight terror, with some horrifying details of what we did in the name of security (with dubious benefits). The host, Hilary Andersson, undergoes some of those techniques, while an American operative is (voluntarily) waterboarded during the program as well.
  • The Guardian ran a very open, honest essay on how quickly others expect us to stop grieving, in this case after the writer lost her mother to cancer.
  • Van Pierszalowski, lead singer/founder of WATERS and a diehard Dodgers fan, spoke to MLB about their season and the direction under the new front office, although this was before they lost game 5 to the Mets.
  • J. Kenji Lopez-Alt makes the list again this week with his ten commandments of eggs. I’m glad to see someone agree that salting eggs before you scramble them is the right move. I always did so for better flavor distribution but it turns out there’s good science behind it too.
  • Vanity Fair ran a piece on the “ermahgerd” girl, an unusually neutral, non-hysterical piece on how a woman became part of a very popular meme without her consent and what effect it had on her life (spoiler: it’s not actually that bad).
  • A short celebration of the short fiction of John Cheever, whose collected short stories won the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction in 1979. I haven’t read that yet, but it’s on my short-term to-do list; I did read and loved Falconer, but was a little less wowed by The Wapshot Chronicle.
  • The Guardian also ran a great piece explaining this year’s Nobel Prize in Physics, awarded to several scientists who discovered that neutrinos emitted from the sun could change “flavors” en route toward (and through) earth, which answered the question of where all those solar neutrinos had gone. (They were there, but not in the flavors we’d been looking for.) The footnotes are rather spectacular, too. I read and reviewed a book last March called The Neutrino Hunters that described the experiment that earned these scientists the Novel.

Day of the Oprichnik.

I held my weekly Klawchat earlier this afternoon.

I stumbled on Vladimir Sorokin’s 2006 satirical novel Day of the Oprichnik (on sale for $7.50 in hardcover right now) while wandering through Tempe’s wonderful bookstore Changing Hands, picking it up because the cover grabbed me, buying it because I enjoy satirical novels, dystopian settings, and Russian literature. The book delivered all of those things, but was sadly light on story, and several passages of the novel were graphic to the edge of offensiveness without any evident point to it all.

Depicting a Russia ruled by an unnamed Putin-like dictator in the year 2028, Day of the Oprichnik shows a day in the life of a government secret-police agent whose responsibilities range from killing noblemen and raping their wives to greasing the wheels of corrupt trade practices to consuming sizable quantities of alcohol and one of the strangest intravenous drugs you’ll ever encounter. The state combines the cult of personality that Putin himself has fostered with an evangelical form of the Russian Orthodox religion, where no one’s life, liberty, or property are ever safe under any circumstances. A small change in favor can mean a nobleman living in an opulent, heavily fortified compound can find himself under siege by the oprichniks, hanging from the gallows, with his children shipped off to an orphanage and his wife gang-raped by the attackers.

That’s just the most stark example of the pointlessly graphic nature of the novel; rape scenes require strong justification in any novel, and here, not only does the violation do nothing for the plot or the satire itself, it’s presented in stomach-churning detail that can only serve to shock. There are other graphic scenes – multiple murders and an orgy – also put in front of the reader for reasons I can’t begin to comprehend. It’s over the top in the way that Naked Lunch and Tropic of Cancer are, and while those are lauded as great works of postmodern literature, I rather thought both were unreadable shit. Oprichnik is at least easier to get through, because the writing isn’t so deliberately obtuse, but the ratio of shock material to actual heft is too high.

Of course, the book was written in 2006 and inadvertently foreshadowed some of the increasing authoritarianism witnessed in Russia over the past nine years, including the modern blend of jingoism and greed that drives the government apparatus for clamping down on the Russian people. The tyrant atop the machine, who has retaken the imperial title of tsar, is never named, but his resemblance in ego and grip on power are rather clear. Sorokin wished to lampoon the then 54-year-old Russian President’s increasing tendency toward totalitarian policies, only to have Putin himself outdo the expectations. Russia today may not be as overtly violent or as hostile to women as Sorokin imagined, but it’s at least as corrupt, as reliant on external economic powers, and as dangerous to its own citizens as the 2028 version in Day of the Oprichnik appears.

Next up: N. Scott Momaday’s Pulitzer Prize for Fiction-winning novel House Made of Dawn.

Klawchat 10/15/15.

Klaw:Started with a pow, and I’m gonna end it with a bang. Klawchat.

Ray Michael: As a Giants Fan this Eddy Julio Martinez thing is just so strange. What is the latest you are hearing? Who has the edge the Cubs or the Giants?
Klaw: He has an agreement with the Cubs that should be binding, as he didn’t sign the term sheet with the Giants … and I know there’s a disagreement over whether the Giants’ term sheet reflected their initial financial offer to the player.

A Canadian: Have you ever seen anything less Canadian (or generally unedifying) than Toronto fans raining debris and abuse onto the field?
Klaw: Idiots are idiots regardless of nationality, unfortunately.

Jim (on the ledge): Okay, Keith. Washington’s first managerial interview is with Dusty Baker. I’m hoping it’s just a “courtesy” interview, although saying he’s “better than Williams” doesn’t reassure me. Granted the Prior/Wood issues were over 10 years ago, and lineup construction can be overrated, but still, how worried should I be?
Klaw: He’s absolutely not worth hiring. It would be a dumb PR-oriented move that would be more likely to set the franchise back rather than forward, and with the Mets ascendant and only likely to improve from here – it’s pretty easy to forecast them as a 95-win team in 2016 with only marginal changes – the Nats would be shooting themselves in the face by hiring someone so regressive.

Nick: Hi Keith…was Matt Arnold a good choice as Asst. GM for the Brewers? Does his background and/or strengths and weaknesses compliment David Stearns’ in your opinion?
Klaw: Nice guy, extremely well-regarded by his colleagues and the scouts who worked for him in Tampa, but the last part of your question does address one of my questions too – are they too similar in background and philosophy?

Will: Now that Corey Seager has graduated, is JP Crawford the best prospect in baseball?
Klaw: Seager has not graduated; I use rookie eligibility on my lists, so players like Seager and I believe Steven Matz remain eligible despite having some major-league service.

George: Which player would you say most inexplicably barrels-up baseballs (hits the ball hard), in spite of poor plate discipline and/or swing mechanics?
Klaw: Have you seen Hunter Pence hit?

Johnny (Billerica, MA): Would you say that Anderson Espinoza is the most highly touted pitching prospect after Urias?
Klaw: Highly touted is a subjective term; he’s certainly receiving tremendous praise and publicity for a 17-year-old, but neither of those guys is the top pitching prospect in the minors right now.

Derek: What’s your favorite wintertime braise?
Klaw: Favorite is short ribs with red wine and dried figs, but that’s a once or twice a winter thing because they are so unhealthful (and I need to at least pay attention to that stuff).

Derek: True or False: Trea Turner should be on the Nats opening day 25 man roster.
Klaw: True.

Kingpin: I know you wrote an Insider piece on Eddy Julio Martinez, but I don’t have Insider access. (I’m a single dad with 3 teenage sons, so I have incredibly limited disposable income. Thanks for continuing the chats for those of us who can’t afford Insider but really love your work.) Any way, how refined is Eddy Julio’s game? What is his MLB ETA?
Klaw: I appreciate your honesty … I’ve had folks come to me at games and openly mock Insider, saying they could pay for it but refuse to on philosophical grounds, which strikes me as a rather bizarre place to make an ethical stand. Anyway, I don’t have any idea of his plate discipline, but I love his swing, body, and athleticism, and would probably start him in low-A with an eye toward a quick promotion if he shows his approach is advanced.

Dana: Should the Yankees go all in on Jason Heyward even though they have Gardner/Ellsbury/Beltran in the OF next year?
Klaw: Beltran can barely move in RF; you could argue they have Judge almost ready for that spot, but of course you’d rather have Heyward out there. I think it depends more on what they intend to do with Ellsbury; if he’s really this bad a player now, does he become a contract to dump, in which case they could put Gardner in CF and Judge in LF?

Robert: Was Matheny ignoring Siegrist’s reverse splits against lefties the worst managing decision of the Divisional Round?
Klaw: This has been such a huge debate – whether there’s such a thing as a LHP with a reverse split – but from a scouting POV it’s pretty evident that a lefty who has a good changeup/split and almost never throws breaking balls is going to have a reverse or neutral split. Matheny treating him like a lefty specialist is the mistake, because all available evidence, statistical and scouting, says that Siegrest is NOT that.

Jock Thompson: Glad you’re over here and restriction-free on your opinions. And thanks for reminding us of these chats and transcripts over on Facebook. Though we don’t always agree, yours is one of the more valuable on-line voices in informing my baseball opinions.
Klaw: I wouldn’t expect anyone to “always agree” with me, but if readers think I make good arguments then I’m happy.

Christopher: What is the greatest threat to the future of humanity? Climate change, or bat flips?
Klaw: Democrats say … nope, wait, not going there.

John: Why do you so easily want to give away your second amendment right? There are already thousands of gun laws. It’s a slippery slope when citizens give away rights.
Klaw: The slippery slope fallacy is a fun one. Anyway, your bigger error is assuming that your interpretation of that right mirrors mine or everyone else’s. Haven’t we all spent 200 years arguing over what exactly that right entails – whether the “well-regulated militia” part matters, and whether it proscribes any restrictions on the types of guns citizens may own?

Dan: Do the Cubs have another step forward ahead of them? As a Pirates fan I’m afraid they are going to get squeezed between some good (and somewhat lucky) Cards teams and a potential dynasty Cubs.
Klaw: Yes, I think they do. I think they’ll go after a top starting pitcher FA this winter, and there are still a few prospects on the farm who haven’t reached the point where they’re widely known yet.

Alan: Three of four series go to game five. Homeruns that still haven’t landed. Awesome pitchers being awesome. Yet, i haven’t heard a “fyeahbaseball” in forever. C’mon Keith! it’s for the children! (Provided the children are 35 year old men who absolutely should be paying more attention in this meeting they’re in right now)
Klaw: To be honest, and I know this won’t be a terribly popular opinion, I thought the Jays/Rangers’ game sucked. The Rangers took the lead on a freak play – correctly adjudicated by the umps, by the way – that led to idiot fans throwing garbage. Then the Jays tie the game on three errors before Bautista does that thing he does so well. The whole inning took something like 40 minutes and it wasn’t 40 minutes of baseball, but like 15 minutes of talking and arguing and cleaning up. It’s just an aesthetic opinion, but that’s not the kind of game I’m hoping to see in the playoffs.

Adam: Question the world has been debating, unless you are party-killer Sam Dyson: Better bat flip – Yo or Joey Bats?
Klaw: Bautista. There was some serious fuck-you in that flip.

Brint: What is the likelihood that Aaron Altherr becomes an above average regular in OF? Is his defense athleticism enough to overcome his potential shortcomings as a hitter?
Klaw: Very low.

J: Hey now! Do you think Arcia and Crawford break camp with the Brewers and Phils? Or start @ AAA?
Klaw: Both AAA. No reason for either team to promote those players too soon.

Michael: Would you say that fouling off a tough pitch rather than putting it in play softly is a skill or just luck?
Klaw: It’s a skill, IMO.

aaron, houston texas: With astros bullpen being terrible, does that change your thinking on “pay for relievers”?
Klaw: No – they paid for two of those key guys, Neshek and Gregerson. The problem was that they didn’t get guys who miss bats, not in the free agents nor from their own system. They need to figure out which of the hard-throwing prospects is better suited to the bullpen – Feliz, Velazquez, McCullers, etc.

Donnie: Who do you have winning the LAD-NYM series. Your response in last week’s chat conflicted with your ESPN article. Thanks.
Klaw: OH MY GOD I CHANGED MY MIND ON SOMETHING HOW DARE I DO THAT

Nicholas: Thoughts on the Jerry Dipoto hire?
Klaw: Strong choice. Surprised he hasn’t made more changes below him, though.

Kent: Was rangers 7th inning collapse in your opinion the biggest “choke” in post season history?
Klaw: One, no, and two, I hate using that word for the way it implies some kind of character failure. It’s baseball. One team will lose and there will probably be a mistake or two along the way.

KC: Can you explain why you were ok with the bunt in the Toronto game?
Klaw: I’m not exactly sure which bunt you mean. Didn’t Goins bunt vs a LHP at some point? He’s an automatic out vs lefties anyway.

Jim Boden: Hi keith. Khris davis for Aiken and Bobby bradley. Fair enough for both brewers and indians? Indians need a cheap right-handed slugger(empty DH slot) and brewers need high ceiling prospecrs. What do you think?
Klaw: Good grief that’s a stupid trade for Cleveland.

JR: I know I shouldn’t be, but I’m still shocked at the lack of urgency managers will show in important playoff games. For example, it was obvious Mchugh didn’t have his best stuff last night. No way he should’ve started the 5th (and bringing in Fiers to start the 5th would’ve probably been much more comfortable for him). Same thing in Cubs/Cards game 3. It was obvious Wacha was ineffective. Matheny had the opportunity to pinch hit for him in 4th and turn it over to bullpen but sent him out to hit and he got hit hard in the 5th.
Klaw: The Wacha situation was worse because of that AB and because that game was still very much in reach. Had Hinch pulled McHugh after 4 for Walter Johnson they would still have lost that game.

Chris G.: I know you work for a cable network, but it seems really stupid to me that I can’t stream the play-offs live online because I don’t have cable and blackout rules apply in my area. Why won’t the MLB take my money?
Klaw: I agree completely. MLB has to adjust to the increasing number of households who are ditching cable/satellite. I may be joining that number this winter.

Corey: Boston seems to have a group of almost-but-not-quite players who are blocked at AAA – Cecchini, Brentz, Coyle, Marrero, Brian Johnson, etc Do you retain as taxi squad insurance or do any of them have any trade value?
Klaw: I think you shop all of those guys who have value – that’s Marrero, Cecchini, Johnson (if healthy), Holt, JBJ – particularly targeting high-end arms.

Ben: Between the Mets and Dodgers, which team would you say the Cubs have a better shot against?
Klaw: Probably Dodgers. BTW, I didn’t clarify my answer above – when I actually sat down to write my real predictions (which aren’t worth much anyway), I thought the matchup favored the Mets much more than it did at first glance, which is why I picked them to win the series in four. Those odds change a bit now with Greinke pitching again and the game in LA, but I’d still give a very slight edge to NY.

Ethan: RE: last night’s freak play – time to revisit the rules around live balls now that the batter can’t leave the batter’s box? Doesn’t it seem like a return ball hitting the batter will happen a lot more now?
Klaw: I think we’d need to see it happening a lot, or batters trying to sneak the bat out there a little bit to make something like this happen, before we change the rules. It was weird, but it is extremely rare, and the umps got the call right. I do wish Dale Scott hadn’t confused the issue by calling time, but oh well.

Cody: Do you think Javy Baez has raised his stock enough that he can return something interesting this off-season or would the Cubs still be selling low? More likely Baez or Castro is moved or neither?
Klaw: I don’t have a great sense for the market for Castro, but I think I’d rather move him and roll the dice on Baez pulling a Chris Davis. I doubt Castro becomes a star, but he’s very valuable because of his contract. Baez has a higher bust probability but he could become a star much more easily.

Hugo Z: Why DFA Gattis if you can find a trade partner in the AL?
Klaw: What kind of trade value would he have? There wasn’t much of a market last winter, and now it’s even more evident how limited a player he is. I think I said this elsewhere, but he would have been valued more highly and more valuable in fact twenty years ago, when teams had larger benches (and didn’t care about OBP).

TJ: Looking at the number of effective relievers in the majors who failed as starters (both setup guys and closers like Britton, Andrew Miller, etc), is investing in failed starters as bullpen arms be a better strategy than paying big money for “proven” relievers? Any help my beloved Detroit Tigers can get in building a decent bullpen would be appreciated…
Klaw: No question. How many guys drafted and developed as relievers turn out to be great relievers in the majors, at least as a percentage of the guys who were drafted and developed as relievers? The failure rate there is incredibly high, I think in large part because those guys were already relievers (in college, usually) for a really good (that is, bad) reason.

Corey: Do you not trust in JBJ to be a starter compensating for dry spells with an A+ glove or Boston has enough OF options that he’s expendable ?
Klaw: More that they have so many other options.

Gavin: Would you give a QO to Span or Wieters? I assume both teams would hope that neither would accept, regardless, correct?
Klaw: Span, if our medicals said he was OK, then yes. Wieters, probably yes because I doubt Boras would want him to take it, but also a healthy 2016 from him is probably worth something close to that $15.8 million anyway.

KC: Would you take Schwarber 1-1 in hindsight or still too early to tell?
Klaw: Way too early to even suggest that.

ds: RE: Relievers – Which is why the Twins strategy of drafting RP’s and trying to turn them in SP’s makes me cringe.
Klaw: Well it just hasn’t worked. They took Nick Burdi, who legitimately throws 100 mph, last June, and he stunk this year. They took another guy who threw 100 with awful mechanics (Cederoth) and are trying to make him a starter. Then a round or two later they took a more unheralded college reliever in Jake Reed and he’s the best of the lot.

Sal: Keith – thoughts on the mets turning degrom and thor into 3-4 inning pitchers for this game? Let them go all out for those 3-4 innings each and only have them face the lineup 1-2 times through. Both of them threw a lot of pitches in their first start and a shorter outing could maximize their effectiveness…
Klaw: Oh I’m all in on that. Yes, I understand it will cost you one start from Thor in the NLCS, but 1) you have to get there first and 2) it’s not like Matz is Derek Holland. He’s a hell of a fourth option.

JQ: What is your overall strategy for camel acquisition/dealing in Jaipur? Beyond clearing the market when my opponent has a full hand so that they cannot steal all the high-value goods, I am not sure I know when to go after them. For dealing them, is it worth a turn/resources to exchange them for multiple low-value goods or do you stick to dealing them only for silver/gold/diamonds? Thanks K-Law
Klaw: I love that game but I don’t know that I have a clear strategy for that. I try to focus more on the three higher-value goods, both acquiring them and preventing my opponent from doing so.

Chris: If you’re the Dodgers, do you resign Kendrick this offseason or give the job to Peraza? I assume they’re keeping Seager at SS and Turner at 3B.
Klaw: Peraza is the best SS of the group, but doing that would probably require Turner to go back to 2b, where he wasn’t very good in limited MLB time. I’d like to at least see what that looks like before committing to Seager at SS, as I don’t think he’s an average defender there in the long run.

Justin (DC): May I make a plug for Acquire? It has become our go to game for new gamers, and its been very popular. I don’t know if it is because everyone we introduce it to has (fake) fond memories of monopoly or we’re all lawyers (and thus megalomaniacs), but its been a popular go to for us.
Klaw: One of the only classics that holds up well. It’s been on my annual game rankings every year.

Justin (DC): What are your thoughts on the valuation of draft picks and international money? For example, at what price point does a trade or free agent become worth the lost draft pick/international slot?
Klaw: Two thoughts. One, if MLB tries to combine these two, or even create an international draft, they’re going to have a hellish PR issue on the gap between the values of drafted kids (US/Canada/PR) and Latin American kids from everywhere but PR. Two, it depends on two factors that prevent a generalization here – where that lost pick is (pick 11 is worth a lot more than pick 25 in expected return) and where that team is in the success cycle (win now vs still building). In conclusion, don’t give up a pick for Michael Cuddyer.

nb: Keith – I’ll be in Phoenix the weekend of the AFL All Star Game. Will you be there?
Klaw: Nope, going Monday the 19th through Friday the 23rd.

Mike: It appears we are seeing a lot more starters who throw 95+ for 100+ pitches than ever before. What is this attributable to? Is it possible to teach velocity?
Klaw: Pitchers have been getting bigger and stronger for a while now, and I think we select them for velocity and then develop them to do just what you said. The results may include the spike in elbow injuries, of course.

John: Thought on Bogar as favorite for M’s job
Klaw: I don’t know if he’s the favorite – there really isn’t a favorite in these things, right? Someone gets the job and there’s no second place – but I like that he has substantial managerial experience in the minors. We’re seeing more candidates with that experience now – him, Nevin, and Alex Cora, whom I know well and recommend highly.

Fredo in Tahoe: Hi Keith, an ambitious three questions. 1. Any insight into the Dodgers jettisoning Engle and the International Staff? Thought they were well regarded. 2. Have you ever read Metropole by Kermode? 3. Pour over coffee? Aeropress?
Klaw: 1. Yes, limited insight, but I’ve heard they felt they were paying too much for international talent and not getting anywhere near the return outside of Puig and Urias. 2. No, sorry. 3. Pour-over although I’m still an espress guy at heart.

Nicholas: DIpoto has made it clear that the M’s need to get more athletic (which is obvious). The biggest need that I see is CF. Who can you see them targeting to fill CF? JBJ?
Klaw: He’d fit, although I think his defensive ability is more routes and reads rather than athleticism – he’s not a plus runner or anything. By the way, you know why they need to get more athletic? Because they haven’t drafted athletes in years. It’s been more polished, lower-upside guys, which can certainly work out but has not been at all fruitful for them. They need a new draft strategy.

Noah: Who is your guy to go first overall in the draft?
Klaw: Nobody has separated himself for 2016 yet. There are a half-dozen guys who could do so in the spring, and I’m sure we’ll get one or two names out of nowhere the way Jonathan Gray burst on the scene in February of 2013.

Geoff: Who is Kiley McDaniel and why are Braves fans so excited that he’s been hired to their front office?
Klaw: Used to work for me before moving on to other sites, including leading Fangraphs’ prospect coverage this past year. I’m a big believer in his evaluation skills. (Fans are excited because they know who he is, as opposed to someone less well-known like, say, Matt Arnold.)

Corey: Clay Buchholz – pick up the option and trade or keep and consider Owens/Wright as his replacement when he gets hurt ?
Klaw: Pick it up and keep him.

mike: 2-3-2 format in CS, favours Toronto doesn’t it? Steal one of two in KC then you can close out at home.
Klaw: Sure, if you assume you’re never going to lose a home game, even though you lost two of three in the last round.

Steve: After his season will Acevedo end up on your nyy list or are cheching his AFL results before?
Klaw: He’s in their top ten for sure.

Alex in Austin: Any reason why former Cavaliers Papi and Howard struggled in their debuts?
Klaw: Papi was coming off a hand injury and was a zero for two months before playing better (but not as well as he should have) after that. I thought Howard starting was a mistake; I don’t know if that was at all related to his complete loss of control even after he returned to the bullpen. Guys who put up lines like that are often hurt.

Ben: Despite his rather lackluster season, is Raul Mondesi still KC’s top prospect in your opinion?
Klaw: I don’t know. He’s super young and has the most ability of any of their prospects, but they’ve promoted him too quickly, and having him work so much on bunting has retarded his growth as a hitter. It’s probably still him but this isn’t the future I envisioned for him two years ago.

Bret: There is been some speculation in the Toronto media that the Jays feel David Price is “gassed” and/or tipping pitches. Have you seen anything scouting-wise that would indicate that?
Klaw: Doesn’t look gassed. I couldn’t tell you if he was tipping unless I was watching him from behind the plate (and even then I might not catch it). If he were gassed, using him in relief in game 4 would have been an even worse idea.

KC: I wish all kids could sign for whatever they can get, but what is the argument for not putting Latin American kids in the draft? I don’t get why everyone doesn’t have the same rules.
Klaw: Two different scouting staffs, operating on two very different calendars, evaluating 18- to 22-year-old players for the draft and 15- and 16-year-old players for July 2nd. I saw some 14-year-olds take BP in Santo Domingo last week. They were impressive, but I kept thinking, “what the hell am I even looking at?” I’ve seen exactly one U.S.-born prospect that young before – Bryce Harper at 15, who was already Superman – and this is a totally different world of evaluation.

Mike: Of all the possible FA pitchers this offseason, assuming Grienke opts out, who would you be most comfortable giving a long term big money deal to?
Klaw: Greinke and Price. I’m still a big fan of Price’s and I think his skill set will age pretty well.

Wally: Would Rendon and maybe a prospect for Carrasco and Frazier be roughly comparable value? Would that make sense for Nats to supplement the lack of any upper level OF prospects (and a statue in LF)
Klaw: That seems to create one hole to maybe fill another. Even if you rate Frazier more highly than I do, you’re making the 2016-17 Nats worse while you wait for him.

Jim Boden: How about Khris davis and Will smith for Aiken and Bobby bradley? Gattis for Folty and Ruiz. Tumbo for Skaggs and Eaton(Arizona gave two for Trumbo). Are those two trades also stupid?
Klaw: Those trades were stupid, yes, and I said so at the time.

Pat: The difference between the cheapest cable package that includes ESPN and the biggest one that doesn’t include ESPN is $25. Therefore, ESPN costs me $25 per month, regardless of what ESPN charges the cable company. That’s a lot of money.
Klaw: I assume that gets you ESPN plus our other channels plus some others, but yes, I hear you. We watch fewer than a dozen channels frequently. Why are we paying so much for them? More channels with substantial archives need to go the HBO route. If the BBC created an app with their entire archive of video plus new shows, is that not a huge value at $10/month?

JF: Other than AJ Reed, what other prospects in the Astros system could help their offense as early as next year?
Klaw: Don’t sleep on Tyler White. Bad body but ridiculous track record of performance.

Pat: How was the coffee in the Dominican?
Klaw: I didn’t get to explore at all, which was probably for the best as I was an anxious wreck for two days before the trip and much of the time I was there.

Jim: Keith, could you clarify Cora’s experience? My understanding was he has the GM position in the winter league, and can’t find any reference to him working as a manager anywhere (which may be me). Thanks!
Klaw: He manages Caguas.

Mike: Should the Mets give Murphy a QO for $16mm, or let him walk given cheaper and probably better internal options (Flores, Herrera)?
Klaw: Let him walk. Despite the 2 HR this series I don’t think you want him to take that offer at all.

John: I think the Braves did the right thing by getting the rookies into the rotation this season, but the results were less-than-ideal. Should they just keep the same guys next year and bank on improvement, or would they benefit from signing a mid-tier FA starter for some stability? Looking toward 2017, obviously?
Klaw: You can’t bank on improvement but you should have learned something about each of those kids, who’s learned something from the experience, who’s working well with coaches, who might be destined for the bullpen. None of that is a reason to stay out of free agency this winter, though – there’s value in adding a guy who can give you 200 innings and avoid blowing out what is already a not that good bullpen.

KC: Some of these kids get 100k, spend it all in the States, get injured or don’t make it and then go home with nothing. That’s not a service.
Klaw: Better that they stay desperately poor? It’s not like they’re going to school there. They might even learn English in a few years in the US, which is an actual skill.

Anonymous: Speaking of relievers who were starters, is Joe Kelly destined to be a closer? he seems to have the right stuff for the gig
Klaw: I think so. Tough to repeat that arm action 100 times a game enough for fastball command.

TJ: Stephen Piscotti in the playoffs- SSS or a glimpse of what we might see in the future power-wise?
Klaw: Obvious SSS but he can really hit and will hit for more power in the majors than the consensus was for him out of the draft or in the minors.

Ridley: I’m gutted to see my Rangers out of the playoffs, but the future looks pretty bright. Darvish is back next year, and Joey Gallo is going to be fun to watch. How would you work Gallo in to the team? Are there any other youngsters likely to make it to Arlington?
Klaw: Gallo should start in AAA to continue to work on making contact in the zone, and I haven’t given up on him as a 3b long-term. You’ll see Mazara in the majors at some point too.

KC: By that logic, poor kids in the US should also be able to get drafted/sign at 16.
Klaw: Poverty in the DR is a whole different kind of poverty than what we consider poor in the US.

Dan: Do front offices ever reach out to local media to run interference for (give cover to) non-mainstream managerial decisions? I’m imagining Alderson reaching out to Francesca and other NY-area loudmouths prior to tonight’s game to preemptively defend Terry if he decides to piggyback deGrom and Syndergaard (irrespective of how well deGrom is pitching).
Klaw: Don’t know. I haven’t run into that before the fact, but I do hear from folks afterwards to discuss questionable decisions, which I find helpful because often there’s a variable I didn’t know (e.g., Joey Bagodonuts woke up with a sore shoulder and wasn’t available) or consider (e.g., something in batted-ball data that we don’t have) before.

Chris: Assuming the Dodgers get past the Mets (big assumption) and they don’t use Kershaw on three days’ rest again, would you start Brett Anderson or Alex Wood in Game 1 of the NLCS?
Klaw: Anderson. But maybe get Ellis behind the plate because Grandal’s pitch-calling has left a bit to be desired so far.

Dave: Love the questions about SP moving to RP — the Reds have about 4000 young-ish guys who are nominally SPs. If you are the Reds, who do you abandon as SPs?
Klaw: I think Lorenzen and Finnegan are relievers for sure. Howard is already in the pen. Give Garrett, Mella, and Travieso more time to start; Mella may end up in the pen too. Reed can start.

Chris: Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on Clarkin, Austin, and Sanchez after your visit to the AFL. All have something to prove. Clarkin unspecified injury, Austin generally disintegrating and Sanchez supposedly improving behind the plate.
Klaw: Saw Austin (no bueno) and Sanchez (same maddening combination of skills and disinterest) this year. Sanchez just isn’t that much better behind the plate, but I also never thought he was as bad as reported online either. He came out of the womb a better receiver than Montero.

Alex (CA): Who is more likely to reach his ceiling, Hedges, Sanchez, or Alfaro?
Klaw: Hedges … if they ever let him play.

Ridley Kemp: I’m gutted to see my Rangers out of the playoffs, but the future looks pretty bright. Darvish is back next year, and Joey Gallo is going to be fun to watch. How would you work Gallo in to the team? First base? DH? Third base? Left field? Are there any other youngsters likely to make it to Arlington?
Klaw: Gallo should start in AAA to continue to work on making contact in the zone, and I haven’t given up on him as a 3b long-term. You’ll see Mazara in the majors at some point too.

Klaw: That’s all for the chat this week – thank you all for joining me, as always. I’ll be in Arizona next week, where I hope to see many of you in person. I’ll try to do a chat one morning local time near the end of the week once I’ve seen everyone take BP. Keep an eye on Twitter and my Facebook page for details.

All the Light We Cannot See.

Anthony Doerr’s World War II novel All the Light We Cannot See, winner of the 2015 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction, defies the standards for that prize in its complete lack of American characters or themes, but the work itself overcame the prize rules’ stated preference for a work “dealing with American life” with exquisite plotting and searing character portraits. The novel seems ripe for sentiment – I can only imagine what Hollywood will do to the conclusion – but Doerr manages to dance on the line separating emotion from mawkishness without crossing it, building up to a single moment lasting no more than two pages that brings his two protagonists together in one of the most memorable scenes I’ve read in years.

Doerr gives us two narrative threads for most of the book, adding a third a bit later on to help tie the first two together, with each of the pair of primary subplots featuring one of his two main characters: Marie-Laure, a blind 12-year-old girl who flees Paris with her father, a locksmith at the French Museum of Natural History, when the Nazis invade in 1940; and Werner, a German orphan who saves himself from a life in the mines by showing an early aptitude for working with electronics, especially radio transmitters. Marie and her father, who may have been entrusted with a priceless jewel from the museum’s collection, end up in Saint-Malo, a walled city on the northern coast of Brittany that was badly damaged by Allies near the end of World War II; when her father is taken prisoner by the Nazis on questionable pretenses, her care falls to her shell-shocked great-uncle Étienne, who has a sizable radio transmitter in his home’s hidden top floor. Werner ends up in a draconian military academy before a little age-modification lands him a spot in a roving military unit that’s assigned to locate and snuff out Resistance radio transmitters within occupied Europe. When Marie and her great-uncle join the Resistance and begin such transmissions, it’s obvious that Werner’s unit will end up in Saint-Malo to try to find the source … but she’s also sought by the Nazi treasure-hunter von Rumpel, who believes her father took the genuine diamond and is desperate to retrieve it before he runs out of time.

The story comes to the reader in very short bursts, too short to be called chapters, with interludes toward the very end of the war interspersed throughout the longer sections that lead from 1934 (when Marie-Laure and Werner are still little children) to the war’s outbreak, eventually catching up to the second timeline in the interludes where all three subplots collide in Saint-Malo. Flashbacks are themselves a tired technique, but the brevity of each passage gives the novel the quick-reading feel of an epistolary work, and in this case there’s value in forewarning the reader of the tension of the final denouement while also tipping us off that certain secondary characters might not be around for it.

Doerr relies a bit too much on coincidence to deepen the tie between Werner and Marie, a detail that in some ways overshadows the generosity of spirit in their single encounter, where Werner takes multiple actions that save Marie’s life. However, he avoids so many other hackneyed devices both in the path to that scene and in that meeting itself that still manages to explore new emotional territory, looking into the possibility of kindness within the heart of darkness in ways I’ve only seen before in fictionalized parent-child relationships. (All the Light is also one of the only contemporary novels for adults I’ve read recently that has very little sex or profanity, both of which are frequent and overused crutches in modern adult fiction.)

Marie-Laure is a bit romanticized, the innocent girl waiting for one of various men – her father, her uncle, and eventually Werner – to save her, but Werner is a fully-formed character with ambition and remorse, driven by emotional and physical needs to succeed at his task yet haunted by knowledge of the results of his triangulations and scarred repeatedly by assaults on the shreds of his innocence. He is the moral center of the book, this teenaged Nazi soldier through whom Doerr shows us the horrors of war via an unusual and new lens.

Next up: Roger Zelazny’s Hugo winner Lord of Light.

Gluten-free cocoa brownies.

One of the recipes that first got me hooked on Alton Brown’s show Good Eats was his first brownie recipe, which he calls cocoa brownies and featured on the legendary “Art of Darkness II” episode, as well as in his book Good Eats: Volume 1, The Early Years. (He later modified the baking technique in a blog post to create a gooier end product, but I haven’t tried this.) I loved this recipe because the brownies tasted like cocoa rather than like fudge, and hit that perfect textural note that isn’t too fudgy but isn’t too much like chocolate cake. It gets lift from the eggs rather than baking powder or soda, and using brown sugar for half of the sweetener introduces a more complex and slightly darker note. The only alteration I would ever make was to swap out half of the butter for half a cup of a neutral vegetable oil, because all-butter baked goods dry out too quickly, while baked goods made with at least some oil will stay moist for several more days.

Since I now have a few folks around me who need to avoid gluten, I’ve been experimenting a bit with converting recipes rather than buying expensive, highly processed gluten-free mixes that take all of the adjustments out of my hands. When I had a request for GF brownies, I thought of AB’s recipe because it calls for so little flour – ½ cup, or about 70 grams. Swapping that out for some King Arthur Gluten Free Multi Purpose Flour (not their GF baking mix) and adding 1/8 tsp xanthan gum for structure produced a brownie that looked and tasted just like the original version did, with only the slightest hint afterwards that something was different. (You can get both of those ingredients at Whole Foods.)

So here’s my gluten-free adjustment to Alton Brown’s cocoa brownies:

4 large eggs (they don’t have to be organic or cage-free, but I do prefer them for many reasons)
1 cup white sugar
1 cup brown sugar
4 ounces (1 stick) melted unsalted butter
½ cup neutral vegetable oil (soybean, corn, sunflower, safflower, canola)
2 tsp vanilla extract
½ tsp salt
1¼ cup (about 150 g) cocoa powder, either natural or Dutch-processed (my preference)
½ cup (about 70 g) King Arthur gluten-free multi-purpose flour
⅛ tsp xanthan gum

1. Grease and flour an 8×8 metal baking pan or line it with an aluminum foil sling for easy removal. Preheat the oven to 300 F.

2. In your stand mixer, whisk the four eggs until yellow and foamy. Add both sugars, the salt, and the vanilla extract and whisk until fully combined.

3. Combine the oil and melted butter, and whisk them into the egg/sugar mixture.

4. Sift the cocoa powder, gluten-free flour, and xanthan gum together and add to the bowl. Mix on low speed until no dry clumps or pockets remain, scraping the sides and bottom if necessary.

5. Pour the batter into the prepared pan and bake for one hour (yes, it’s much longer), testing the center with a toothpick, which should come out nearly clean. The center may remain a bit gooey but that’s a good thing. Let them cool to room temperature before attempting to cut them. Just trust me on that.

Saturday five, 10/10/15.

I visited the Dominican Republic for the first time this week, and saw Eddy Julio Martinez, six other Cuban defectors, and a handful of Dominican teenagers who will be eligible to sign in 2016 and 2017; Insiders can read all of my scouting notes on those players. I also wrote some preview/notes pieces on the American League and National League Division Series, although my Blue Jays in four prediction is already dead.

I held my regular Klawchat here on Thursday. I think the new software, despite some tiny glitches, is working out well; if nothing else it works far faster on my end.

And now, the links…

Man’s Search for Meaning.

I have a scouting blog up on Cuban free agent Eddy Julio Martinez and other Cuban and Dominican prospects for Insiders; Martinez has reached an agreement to sign with the Cubs pending a physical. I also held my regular Klawchat yesterday.

A friend of mine who works as a therapist, dealing in particular with trauma victims, has been recommending Viktor Frankl’s short book Man’s Search for Meaning, which comprises a long essay he composed while in concentration camps in World War II as well as a shorter piece on logotherapy, his concept and program for working with psychiatric patients. I’m rather unqualified to ‘review’ this book in any meaningful way, but since the book is so highly regarded and often cited in polls where readers name the most influential books they’ve read, I’ll offer a few thoughts.

As you might imagine, the first part of the book, where Frankl details much of the suffering he saw and endured at the hands of the Nazis – his entire family, including his pregnant wife, was killed during the Holocaust – is somewhat difficult to read, even though Frankl takes a fairly neutral tone. He received some slightly favorable treatment because he had a medical background and could take on tasks other prisoners couldn’t, but that is a drop in the ocean compared to the misery of his situation. Frankl’s point in writing this brief memoir is to explore the ways in which the human mind can survive suffering and find reasons to continue to live even in hopeless situations. Although he gives his ideas on the meaning of life, the book delves more into the specifics of the title – the search itself, the refusal to give up, and the physical consequences he witnessed when a fellow prisoner lost his will to live.

Finding meaning in suffering is a longstanding subject of debate and expostulation in religion and philosophy, with Frankl taking a particularly pragmatic view of the matter. In his view, there is less point in asking “why” than in finding new reasons for hope or optimism even in apparently hopeless situations. Prisoners who could find meaning in helping others, or in sustaining themselves on the chance they’d one day be released and reunited with loved ones, fared better mentally and physically than those who gave themselves up to the awful reality of their lives in the camps. This forms one of the key parts of his program of therapy – helping patients understand why they do have meaning in their lives, often more than they realize.

Several passages describe the presence of a senior group of prisoners who in some ways helped run the camp in exchange for special privileges or favors like cigarettes, liquor, or additional food. We often refer to the Stanford Prison Experiment to explain such brutal behavior, but is there a more stark example of this awful capacity of our personalities, to join with those who would enslave, torture, and kill our relatives, friends, countrymen, fellow worshipers, just to save our own skins?

The foreword to the current edition available on Kindle was written by the rabbi Harold Kushner, author of When Bad Things Happen to Good People, who calls Frankl’s book “a profoundly religious book.” I agree to an extent that the book has a spiritual core, although it is not limited to any specific religion, and I think the book can be read, understood, and appreciated by a secular audience. Frankl does not rely on a deity or an afterlife to make his arguments that life here can have meaning even when meaning has left the building; his arguments rely on emotion and psychiatric tenets, none of which requires religious belief or background to follow, which means Man’s Search for Meaning is a book for anyone interested in fundamental questions of why we are the way we are, and how to find that meaning even in situations that appear devoid of it.

Next up: I’m a bit behind on reviews yet again, having finished Anthony Doerr’s All the Light We Cannot See, this year’s Pulitzer Prize for Fiction winner, on the flight back from Santo Domingo, and am now reading Vladimir Sorokin’s very odd novel Day of the Oprichnik.

Wavves’ V.

My ALDS notes and predictions are up now for Insiders, and I’ll have a post up on Eddy Julio Martinez and several other Cuban and Dominican prospects I saw this week in Santo Domingo. I also held a chat earlier today.

Wavves first came to my attention with their 2013 album Afraid of Heights, which featured the song “Sail to the Sun” and encapsulated their sort of slightly obnoxious southern California pop-punk style of music, but also showed what I interpreted as a reluctance to become too accessible. Songs with big hooks would often turn dissonant as lead singer X strained his voice to scream a final chorus or verse, which I don’t usually mind but which limits the group’s potential audience for no appreciable reason. (I’ve never understood screaming in pop-oriented music; unless you’re doing extreme metal, what’s the point?)

On V, their fifth album, the band has dispensed with the more obnoxious elements of their music and crafted an album that seems more mature and is certainly more likely to find commercial success, thanks also to a half-dozen short, hook-driven pop-rock songs. Opener “Heavy Metal Detox” is already getting some radio play, sounding almost like the Descendants have come back to their heyday. Wavves also mix in some different guitar tones, leading off “Way Too Much” with a Queens of the Stone Age riff that doesn’t resurface till the chorus. After the album’s first track asks “why does my head hurt?” we get a whole song on that topic with “My Head Hurts,” one of many songs where the lyrics reference alcohol abuse, something lead singer/founder Nathan Williams has fought in the past.

V avoids the monotony that plagues a lot of punk-pop records (coughGreenDaycough) in two ways: the songs are short, and there are a lot of small production changes or different guitar tones that layer a veneer of variety over songs that otherwise might seem too similar. Even something as small as a little distortion on an acoustic guitar in “Redlead,” probably the most complex song on the album, becomes a needed change of pace.

There’s still some of their rougher-edged former selves on the album; closer “Cry Baby” starts out with the kind of off-key shriek that was all over their previous record, leading into a song that’s heavier on the punk and lighter on the pop. The overall result of V works fine without that kind of material, however; it sounds like a band that’s grown up and accepted that its core competence is churning out catchy, short, punk-inflected songs.

Klawchat 10/8/15.

Señores y señoras, nosotros tenemos más influencia con sus hijos que tu tiene. Peros los queremos. Creado y regalo de Nueva York … Klawchat.

Jaypers413: Do you think Cal Ripken could do a competent job of managing the Nationals?
Klaw: I don’t see any reason to think he could. He has zero experience managing anywhere, and we’ve seen that those hires have a very high failure rate. Meanwhile, AJ Hinch, who was not good as a first-time manager with Arizona, has been one of the best in the game the second time around. Experience needs to trump the interview, or, in Cal’s case, the name value.

Jason: So are you not chatting on ESPN anymore? If not what is the point of insider anymore?
Klaw: Well, since my articles are all Insider, and my chats were not Insider, nothing has changed.

Mark: Did Manny Machado have one of the quietest ~7 WAR age 22 seasons ever? Seems like he was constantly overlooked due to the usual suspects of Harper/Trout (deservedly so) and a massive graduation of top prospects to the majors.
Klaw: Yep, I was even shocked when I looked at his stats in early September and saw how good his year was; the Orioles’ disappointing year dampened coverage of how good he was. He’s no longer a future star – he is a star, a top 5 player in the AL. And if he goes back to shortstop full-time … whoa.

Bob: Fun game last night (except for Pirate fans). On Twitter, you seemed uncomfortable with Arrieta facing the lineup a third and fourth time. In this game, the results were no worse the third and fourth time. Can elite pitchers be trusted to go longer into games or do you think this was the wrong move that just happened to work out? Also, do we factor in that Maddon may not trust his bullpen?
Klaw: Calling it the “wrong move” might be a little strong; going to a fresh reliever vs letting the starter go through a lineup the fourth time is the higher-probability move. You’re playing the odds here. If you’re betting on the roll of a regular (fair) die, and I tell you that you can bet on 1-2 or 3-6 with equal payout on both, which bet do you take? If the roll comes up 1 or 2 and you lose, did you make the wrong move?

Double Stuf Oreos: Heyyyyyy buddy where you been? We miss you.
Klaw: Go away. You are an abomination.

Alan: The Washington post ran a column titled the “7 decisions that got Matt Williams fired” – I think 6 of the 7 were pitching changes. I don’t get it. Aren’t the countless runs he lost during the season through bunting and intentional walks more important than getting some 50/50 pitching changes wrong?
Klaw: I actually think what got him fired was the team missing the playoffs. Had they taken 5 of 6 from the Mets in those two key series instead of losing all six, even with all his awful tactical management, they might have made the playoffs and saved his job.

Drew: Is Bud Black the best fit for the Nationals’ Manager gig?
Klaw: I think he’s a good fit. I think Alex Cora (whom I know personally, which isn’t true of many of the top candidates) would be a better fit.

Bill (Thpftt): How did you mange to score MeadowParty as your domain? You must have been an early adopter of this www thing. Can I get it back for my campaign?
Klaw: I’ve had the domain since 2000. And I’m happy to run some campaign ads for you and Opus.

Jeff: Is there any defense for Cuddyer over Conforto against Kershaw? Better yet, any reason for Cuddyer over Lagares?
Klaw: Can you give me a reason for Cuddyer? That would be a good start.

Charlie: Kyle Schwarber or Addison Russell for the 2015 postseason. Who do you take?
Klaw: I have a few of these questions in the queue but I’m not sure what exactly you’re asking for. Bat? Schwarber. total value? I mean, give me the shortstop with the plus glove.

Derek: Keith, do you think Wilmer Difo has a future as an MLB regular? How big a setback is the hand injury?
Klaw: Yes, at least an everday 2b for me. Broken hand sucks, can sap power for up to a year, but players who have hand/wrist injuries do recover fine in time.

Chris: Clint Frazier turn a corner in the second half?
Klaw: Saw him in the playoffs, looked exactly the same – swing and miss in the zone, not recognizing offspeed. You should expect any minor league player to play better in the second half if he’s not promoted because of promotions of other prospects – so for example, Frazier didn’t have to face Giolito, Lopez, Pivetta for Potomac in the second half because they were all in AA.

Dave: How dumb do you have to be to intentionally hit a batter and put a man on base when you are down 4-0 in a winner take all game? Not even getting to the “unwritten rule” aspect or the fact that the guy you hit is a friggin’ pitcher.
Klaw: I heard it on radio – was driving home from the airport – and Boog and Chris both expressed no doubt it was deliberate. Going off their opinion, yeah, that was pretty stupid. I hope that was just Watson being an idiot.

Ken: By the way, this is just a thank you for continuing to do these chats. You and Buster Olney are the main reasons that I continue to pay for Insider. You are able to explain the analytic stats in a way that older fans like myself can understand and I always learn something new from your chats and columns. Keep up the great work!
Klaw: You’re welcome, but really, I continued them because of you guys. No readers, no chats, no Klaw (well, no writer Klaw … I think I’d continue to exist).

Anonymous: What did you think of Archer and Mendoza in the booth? I thought they were both fantastic.
Klaw: I didn’t hear any of it (travel) but Archer did show plus-plus hair.

Mike Charlotte,NC: What kind of ceiling to you project for Lindor? Is a Barry Larkin type career out of the question or am I just an over excited Indians fan here. Thanks.
Klaw: Hall of Fame comps are kind of tough, no? High average/OBP, modest power, plus-plus defense and baserunning, great instincts, fans will adore him. I think that’s good.

Dan: Thoughts Dave Martinez as manager?
Klaw: His reputation within the game is strong, and players love him. I have two questions: One, why has he interviewed for six different gigs, including one with the club that employed him for six years, and never gotten a managing job? Two, is seven years’ experience as a bench coach for a great manager equivalent to actual managing experience? I’d like to think it is.

Adam: Wait, if you like Oreos, how do you not like Double Stuff Oreos?
Klaw: It’s the ratio, man. It’s all wrong.

Nick: What are your expectations for Carson Fulmer in 2016? Is it reasonable for him to be called up midseason, and will it be as a reliever or starter?
Klaw: I think he ends up a reliever. I don’t know of a big-league starter with a delivery that violent. It makes Alex Wood’s look clean and simple.

David: Does Cora have managerial experience? Isn’t that your #1 criteria?
Klaw: Yes, he does. He manages los Criollos de Caguas in Puerto Rico every winter and handles a lot of the GM-type duties in assembling the roster.

Alex: Are you not doing Periscope anymore? Also, any update on Profar’s rehab? Where does Baez play next year? Mazara top 5 prospect?
Klaw: Maybe try the decaf? Periscopes will return soon but I have been traveling – I was in Santo Domingo Tuesday and Wednesday this week. Profar will DH two days a week in the AFL. I bet Baez is someone’s second baseman next year … but I don’t know if it’s for the Cubs. Mazara was in my top 10 when I did my last update.

Adam Trask: Can we all just stipulate that Jessica Mendoza is very good at what she does and the fact that she is hotter than Ashley Judd is irrelevant?
Klaw: There is no such thing as “hotter than Ashley Judd” for me.

michael: hey klaw – how would you rebuild the SFG rotation? Assuming that bum, heston, and cain will have spots, would you spend your money on leake and another 3rd/4th starter type, or would you rather spend it on an ace (a price type) and a 5th starter?
Klaw: Not sure why Heston would have a guaranteed spot, but I do think Leake is a great fit there and very much in line with what they seem to like in starting pitchers. I think they need quantity as well as quality, and if that means foregoing an “ace” FA to sign two mid-rotation guys, so be it. They have a great defense and the offense should be better if everyone is healthy next year.

Joe: Watching the AL Wild Card game, Tanaka was in trouble in the second with bases loaded, two out, and the 9-hole hitter coming up. All I could think was, “Thank God this isn’t an NL game where Tanaka would basically get a free pass out of the jam.” Isn’t that the perfect argument for the universal DH?
Klaw: It’s not one I’ve made, but it’s a very good one.

Adam D.: Are you hearing anything else about why the agreement between Eddy Martinez and the Giants fell through? Do you think the Giants will still pursue him after this?
Klaw: I have one side of the story, much of it off the record, but I think I can safely say that the two parties do not agree on what the actual agreement was in the first place. He is looking for more than that $2.5 million figure and, having seen him take BP on Tuesday, he is worth it.

Mike P: Thoughts on David Ross admitting to grabbing Sean “Karate Kid” Rodriguez by the throat in the scrum on the field yesterday? Doesn’t that seem like something that MLB almost have to suspend him for (even a meaningless game)?
Klaw: You would think so. There shouldn’t be a ‘good guy’ pass for choking someone.

JP: top candidates for 1st pick in the 2016 draft?
Klaw: Hansen, Ray, Groome, Rutherford, maybe Puk (I think that’s a reach). There isn’t really a clear 1-1 guy right now, just a lot of guys who are easy top 5-10 picks.

Adam Trask: Si quieres credibilidad en español, tienes que aprender usar la ñ (además de los accentos)
Klaw: Yes, but they don’t display easily in HTML because you have to use special codes (usually & + the letter + a few letters indicating which accent); I’ll replace them manually in the transcript afterwards.

Mark: Starling Marte has been pretty consistent for the past few years now as a high 700’s OPS guy with speed and plus defense. Do you think there’s still potential for a Carlos Gomez-type breakout season in there (ie OPS in the high 800’s/low 900’s while retaining his speed and defense) or is this who he is (which is still a great player)?
Klaw: Potential, yes. Probability, low. Never liked his approach at the plate and I haven’t seen a ton of improvement there.

Ridley Kemp: Is Eppler a good hire for the Angels? If so, what’s the outlook?
Klaw: Good hire, but big question is how much autonomy he’ll have. If Scioscia is really going to run player development from Anaheim, it’ll be a big challenge for Eppler.

Michael: And Ausmus managed Team Israel in the WBC, but that didn’t qualify as experience?
Klaw: If you’re trying to claim that’s equivalent to managing a team in a winter league, I am openly laughing at you right now. It’s like telling me you can beat Solitaire on your computer so you’re ready to take on Deep Blue.

JR: RE your Ashley Judd comment, hopefully Mrs. Klaw doesn’t read these chats….
Klaw: She knows the deal.

Jeff: Regarding the bonehead from Atlanta and all of the internet misogynist warriors that claimed there were dozens of “more qualified” people than Jessica Mendoza….I gotta say, that’s a misnomer. You are either qualified or you aren’t. And she is qualified to do the job she has. Period.
Klaw: I agree – and that bonehead made it ten times worse by referring to her by a body part, which is a great trick if you want to dehumanize your target. Her gender is irrelevant to her qualifications, and now that she’s doing the job, even her qualifications are irrelevant. She’s performing her job right in front of us – judge her on that and nothing else.

Michael: Does Tyrell Jenkins start next year in the Braves rotation or because he was shut down for a few weeks at the end of this year, does he start in Gwinnett for a month or so before he gets the call??
Klaw: No rush, still better stuff than command/feel, unsurprising for a guy who missed so much time over the last few years.

Mike: Any chance we’ll ever get meaningful gun regulation in this country? Not no guns, but no guns for citizens that can spray bullets. Limit it to hunting rifles and hand guns.
Klaw: I do not believe there is any chance of that happening.

Dan: Ellsberry worst contract in baseball? Think there is anyway the Yankees could trade him this offseason?
Klaw: Bad contract, not sure I’d go with worst. I don’t think he’s movable except for another really bad contract.

Zach: Who do you have in the World Series?
Klaw: Toronto vs LAD.

Michael: Is there a reason why clubs don’t allocate more money to scouts, executives, and interns. Seems like more bang for the buck than a couple middle relievers.
Klaw: Supply and demand, but I do think that’s starting to change a little bit. Their salaries are creeping up.

Matt: Are your new chats a curse free zone or can we let the expletives fly?
Klaw: Go for it. I won’t say anything goes, but it’s not G-rated here.

Eric. Tampa, Florida: Could you argue that Baseball is just as popular as the NFL? If you took out gambling and fantasy, how many people would watch an NFL game?
Klaw: Bit of an academic point there. Baseball is still popular, and has work to do to grow or maintain its popularity in certain demographics – and to maintain accessibility for people with less disposable income. NFL/NBA are more popular abroad, which is a tougher road for baseball to hoe because it’s so much more complicated than basketball, American football, soccer, or hockey. All other major team sports involve one team trying to move an object straight down a field to put it in a net or a specific area of the field, and the other team tries to stop them. Baseball defies such easy explanation.

Josh: What is Angels Tyler Skaggs ceiling assuming a health comeback for next year?
Klaw: I thought he was headed for #2 starter when he got hurt.

Mike: Did you know that the Orioles traded away Arrieta? As an O’s fan I’ve only been reminded of it 1000 times today. My real question is do you get any sense that the Orioles see they need to change their approach to developing pitchers? Shouldn’t they get the message by now that they need a new philosophy?
Klaw: Really? I hadn’t heard that (in the last five minutes). I get the sense that Buck believes his way is the right way and nothing is changing while he’s there. You can draw your own conclusions as to whether that is the best thing for the Orioles.

Andy: With the current trend in bullpen usage, “damning” someone to a bullpen arm isn’t that bad. Wade Davis is just a bullpen arm, but I bet he makes more money in his career than he would have if he had stayed a mediocre starter. Heck, Joe Blanton has resurrected his career by being a bullpen guy. If you can’t be an above average starter, turning into an ace reliever may be a good personal move.
Klaw: Nope. I try to remind people of that when I say that I think guys like Severino, Reynaldo Lopez, Carson Fulmer, etc are all relievers in the long run. You can be a 3 WAR reliever and make $10 million a year. The game has changed and if anything it’s shifting further in that direction.

James: Which manager are you most surprised kept his job so far – Ausmus, Price or Weiss?
Klaw: Price, although Ausmus keeping his job after the Norris debacle was ridiculous.

Mike P: Do you think any club goes to the GM meetings without having a GM?
Klaw: No, I think the Phillies will wrap theirs up by the end of the month, although MacPhail could certainly handle the GM meetings by himself. They’re just going to be very discreet about their process.

JR: IOW, in the chat we’ve upgraded from #fyeahbaseball to #fuckyeahbaseball?
Klaw: Fine with me. Can’t say that on Twitter though. I don’t swear for its own sake, but you know, if you’ve ever talked to a scout or an exec, you’ve probably heard that such-and-such a pitcher has “good shit.” It’s a technical term.

Steve: I know you’re not a fantasy player but where do you stand on the legality of DFS. Also, do you think MLBs heavy endorsement of it is good/bad for the game?
Klaw: It’s legal gambling, right? If we try to make it illegal it’ll just move offshore, so you might as well regulate and tax it. More transparency is good for the consumer. Then again, I think state lotteries should be illegal because they’re just a wealth transfer from the poor to the middle- and upper-classes, so my views here aren’t simple.

Imre: Who ya got between my beloved Cubs and our arch-enemy Cardinals?
Klaw: If the Cards were totally healthy I’d pick them. Now I’m not sure but I’m leaning slightly toward the Cubs.

Steve: Speaking of Wade Davis, how well do you think he holds up w/ that velocity? He effective for several years?
Klaw: We’re entering a new era with some of these relievers; Kimbrel and Aroldis have held up longer than most top-end closers ever did, so perhaps the paradigm is shifting. Two years ago I would have said “not much longer.” Maybe that’s no longer true.

Steve: Sox will have lots of SP candidates under contract for next year (Buchholz, Eduardo, Kelly, Porcello, Miley, Owens, Brian Johnson, Steven Wright) but no true ace. Think they’ll a) invest $200+ mil in Price, b) sign someone from the text tier (Zimmerman, etc.), c) trade for an ace, or d) go with existing options?
Klaw: My guess is they sign one top-end starter and trade for one. I hope for their sake that they keep Rodriguez, who has ace upside, and try to package some of these major-league ready guys like Marrero, Cecchini, JBJ, etc. who have no obvious places to play in Boston any time soon.

John: How do you scout players with unconventional mechanics, but good results? I’m thinking Johnny Damon’s swing, Jared Weaver’s motion or Hunter Pence’s Hunter Pence.
Klaw: Good question without a simple answer. To some extent, you have to consider whether the player can make the unconventional mechanics work for him – can the hitter with a big hitch in his swing still get the bat head to the zone quickly enough to make hard contact and/or adjust to changing speeds? Can the pitcher repeat that delivery and command the fastball without getting hurt or wearing down? Those guys are the hardest to evaluate because scouting is so much about heuristics – general rules of thumb that, when they break down, often do so spectacularly (e.g., Chris Sale).

Thomas Feeley: Travis Shaw – Small sample size? Can you think of any comparable guys who’ve put up pretty “meh” numbers in the minors only to find their mojo at the major league-level? Should the Sox pencil him into the lineup at 1st next year? I know you’ve had some nice things to say about him in the past, I’m just trying to get a realistic sense of him going forward.
Klaw: Don’t think he’s a star or as good as his MLB line would indicate but he is probably in that group with Marrero and JBJ of guys who could start for someone else, but probably not Boston. It hasn’t hurt his trade value any to have him up and performing, at least.

Evan: What do you think of Moustakas’s season (fluke or real)? His walk rate was the same. His K rate was a bit down but not drastically. He gained 20 points in BABIP, but this also corresponded with a large reduction in his pull rate.
Klaw: He hit LHP well too, if I remember correctly, and if that’s not a one-year fluke, that would tell me more about his evolution as a hitter than anything else. I’m inclined to think it’s real, especially because he’s not trying to pull everything any more, which means a lefty spinning a breaking ball away from him doesn’t get that free rollover to second base.

Jordan: When Smoak was a prospect, did he profile as a true switch hitter?
Klaw: I thought so, but pretty much everything I thought about Smoak turned out to be wrong. At least I know a lot of scouts agreed with me, but, still.

Dave: Where’s Aaron Judge starting the 2016 season: Scranton, or New York?
Klaw: Scranton, working on plate coverage.

Dave: Better long term outlook at shortstop, Gleyber Torres or Orlando Arcia?
Klaw: Arcia but I think both are stars.

James: Do you have any postseason award ballots this year?
Klaw: NL Rookie of the Year. Filed last Friday.

JR: I live in Vegas and a Shake Shack just opened 1 mile from my house. Over/under number of lbs I gain in the next year?
Klaw: That’ll leave a mark. Although I lived close to In-n-Out in Arizona and after a couple of months the novelty wore off. Shake Shack is way better, but still, I can’t eat like that on even a somewhat regular basis.

Chad: I have hated the Ellsbury contract the minute it was signed. Garder is the same (better?) player at 1/3 of the price, and they are redundant. Following on your reply below, what about sending him to SD (needs a real CF) for Shields (terrifies me in Yankee St admittedly) and Gyorko to play 2B? Or maybe to Cubs (Theo conn, will need a CF) for Castro if they even out the money?
Klaw: Why not offer to take Melvin Upton back from the Padres too? Put him in LF, Gardner in CF, evens out the money a bit more. I like the idea of getting Gyorko; I’m not a huge fan, but I think he can be an average regular, while I don’t think Refsnyder’s defense will permit him to do that.

Enad Girondian: I have two good friends who are college baseball head coaches. Both have independently told me that a particular MLB starting catcher who often gets critical praise “calls an awful game.” Is there any objective way to discern this or is it just perception?
Klaw: I don’t know of an objective way to measure that, but some teams might. The problem I can see is that you don’t always know how much the catcher is determining the game plan.

Bill: If you had an NL CYA vote who would you have given it to?
Klaw: Kershaw. I get the arguments for the other guys and I don’t feel that strongly about it, but he missed more bats than anyone in the league and didn’t walk a lot of guys and really we’re talking about some tiny differences between these guys. It comes down to whether you think BABIP and HR differences are all about the pitchers.

Dara: Do you have any amount of Trekkie in you? If so, what percent?
Klaw: I think as a kid I saw the entire original series, and I probably watched 2-3 seasons’ worth of TNG, but then nothing after and none of the films.

James: Are the A’s ever going to get to move, even if it’s not to San Jose?
Klaw: Ever, yes. Soon, no, although I hold out far more hope of Manfred allowing franchise moves than I ever had under Selig. Manfred is going to get some things done that Bud never would have. I hope that means we get the Rays out of St. Pete and a team in Austin.

Jay: Would you have the Mets over the Dodgers if it was a 7-game series? LAD have a better 1-2 combo, but Mets have better pitching depth
Klaw: In that case, though, you’d get an extra start from Greinke too, and I don’t know if Harvey would get that second start.

Frank: Before year’s end, Manfred will decide on Pete Rose. Predict the outcome for us.
Klaw: No change in status.

JR: Thoughts on the one game wild card? I’m OK with it. Don’t need to extend.
Klaw: I don’t particularly like it, but this year it turned out to be a great thing because the Cubs deserved to be in the playoffs (and it was good for fans to have them in the playoffs). I don’t want longer playoffs; this isn’t the NHL or NBA.

Imre: Kershaw also is 1st in fWAR by 2.4 1st in xFIP by .51…………BUT, stats are stupid and I like Jake and his beard and his yoga and his riding home from games in rickshaws while jamming some Beck.
Klaw: I don’t disagree but fWAR assumes BABIP fluctuations are entirely out of the pitcher’s hands, and that may not be true and certainly isn’t something the voter pool is comfortable with yet.

Mike P: In front office thinking, what defines a “successful” draft? I’m talking, 10 years later. Like, hitting on your 1st rounder and another player? Having 3 average regulars out of 1 draft? Just curious as to what the “standard” might be.
Klaw: I think any draft where you either hit on your first rounder or find a star in a later round (a Goldschmidt in the 8th round) is a successful one, although from a process standpoint you should always examine and question why you missed on your first pick. You should get 4-5 big leaguers, including guys who are just up-and-down types, from a typical draft, with one or two of them regulars or more.

Joe: I know the Cy Young is a full season award…but philosophically, do you think it’s okay to give extra weight to Arrieta’s amazing second half? Would that really be any different than considering peak vs. longevity on a Hall of Fame ballot?
Klaw: Yes, it would be very different, like, Shake Shack vs McDonalds’ different.

Jay: Any new TV series that you like?
Klaw: We liked episode 1 of The Muppets. That’s the only new show I’ve seen so far.

Jay: What should the Yankees do with Bird?
Klaw: Full-time DH next year with Teixeira back at 1b.

Bruce: Thoughts on the Brewers new GM?
Klaw: Very sharp, personable guy. Need to see who he hires to fill some key positions and whether he gives that player development staff the overall it needs. Also he needs to stop reminding us how young he looks. Never apologize for something you can’t control!

Jason: How good is Bobby Bradley?
Klaw: Good but not great. He’s a solid prospect but not an elite one. 1B only and I don’t know that he’s going to be much of a power hitter.

Danny: Do you think if Jagielo plays a fringe 3B, he would be an upgrade on Headley?
Klaw: I don’t think he can play a fringe 3b.

Andy: Do you remember when Arizona won the Justin Upton trade because they got to re-sign Martin Prado? Going through old chat archives is fun.
Klaw: Exactly. That trade was so bad on its face and yet we had a lot of people trying to defend it for AZ.

Chris: Does that mean you think they can trade A-Rod?
Klaw: No, but if Bird is better, isn’t that who you play? A-Rod was a cipher in the last two months and looked every bit his age – and I’m a fan of his. His salary should not be a factor at all in determining his playing time.

Tom: Why would Odor not be suspended for that “slide” into Giavotella? Looked like a deliberate and malicious intent to injure to me.
Klaw: Has anyone been suspended for a slide like that? My understanding is that the players themselves are fine with such slides and don’t want to see them curtailed or banned.

Mike S. Carolina: Any thoughts with Cleveland’s front office moves?
Klaw: I think they are mostly paper moves – the reporting structure and responsibilities aren’t changing dramatically. We’ll see how that plays out.

Dan: So do the Mets just let Murphy walk at season’s end and install Herrera as the evryday 2B next year? Will the end of Lucas Duda’s usefulness and the arrival of Dom Smith align nicely?
Klaw: Yes, and probably.

Chris: Cashman said yest that Sanchez can now be a high end major league catcher. Is that just inflating his trade value or was there real improvement this year behind the plate (and between the ears)?
Klaw: Not in what I saw but there is no physical reason why he couldn’t be at least an average receiver. He has a 70 arm and can hit.

Matt: I know you’ve been very vocal with “if you need help, please get it” when it comes to mental illnesses such as anxiety, depression, etc. In light of CC’s admission of a problem and action to seek treatment, I can’t stress enough how important getting help is. As someone going through alcohol abuse recovery currently, getting treatment from professionals is critical. If you think you have a problem, be honest and be good to yourself. (steps down from soap box)
Klaw: Yes, yes, a thousand times yes. And I cannot send enough good wishes your way. For whatever it’s worth you have my support.

Andy: That plan would also keep A-Rod and Teixeira fresher. A-Rod getting 300 ABs, Tex, with 400, Bird with 450 doesn’t seem like it would be a terrible plan.
Klaw: A fair point as well. Might sit Bird vs some LHP.

Brian: Can you speak on Travis Shaw’s potential at 3B? I always assumed he was an emergency only option at third, but a quality source cited him as a 55 defender at 3b with growth potential. If so, he seems like the perfect Hanley/Sandoval insurance.
Klaw: First base only for me. Not a 55 defender at third now.

Jay: What are your thoughts about Puerto Rico and the draft?
Klaw: I agree with the industry consensus that putting it in the draft hurt baseball in Puerto Rico, and that even today players drafted from there are unfairly discounted relative to US-born and Canadian players. Next year is a bumper crop in Puerto Rico, the best since 2012 and the best or second-best in the last twenty years or so, and if players there are still getting cheated on their bonuses like that then it’s time for MLB to step in and make it right.

Greg: You’d rather see a team in Austin than back in Montreal?
Klaw: Yes, for a variety of reasons, but the biggest one is that the Expos were just not that well-supported by the population there. MLB needs to go for growth markets, too, and the Austin/San Antonio corridor has over 3 million people and lots of corporations to buy luxury boxes and stadium signage.

Jeff: Is the pocket watch (in the picture above) a reference to game (1 min to make a move)? Or is it because you actually like pocket watches? Or something else?
Klaw: Stopwatch, for timing players’ running speeds or catchers’ throws to second base.

Jay: Do you think there will ever be a MLB team in Mexico?
Klaw: No. All due respect to Manfred, who probably has more info on this than I do, but I don’t think you can possibly guarantee player safety there, and the income gap is enormous. You are more likely IMO to see a team in Havana in the next 25 years than in Mexico – and it would be easier for MLB to effectively subsidize such a move.

Mookie: What possible line of thinking underlies the Rangers’ announcement that Martin Perez will start game 3? An assumed 2-0 lead going back to Arlington?
Klaw: I missed that announcement. I think I like it – betting on stuff rather than veteran presents, perhaps?

Dave: Speaking of the Dominican, when will see your 15 year old rankings? It really boggles my mind the bonuses teams give those young kids. Just joking about the rankings but how can you really tell at that age?
Klaw: I watched three 2017 prospects – fourteen years old – take BP and field a little. It’s insane that we’re even looking at them now, and that they can even look like that taking batting practice.

J: Chat’s going into extras today
Klaw: Yeah, but I have to wrap it up and take care of about a million other things, including making sure my ALDS preview post is OK (I filed before the chat). Thank you all, as always, for all of your questions and for continuing to read these chats every week. I can’t say enough to express my gratitude. I’ll chat again next Thursday ahead of my Arizona Fall League trip.

Saturday five, 10/3/15.

No Insider piece this week, but I held my weekly Klawchat on Friday.

My latest boardgame review for Paste covers the reissue of the classic Reiner Knizia game Samurai.

I mentioned this on Twitter yesterday but it’s such a good deal it’s worth sending again – Ruhlman’s Twenty, one of the best cookbooks I’ve ever read, is on sale for the Kindle for $3.99 ($2.99 if you already own the print version).

  • Julie DiCaro wrote a great piece for SI about the threats female sportswriters receive via social media. She’s been besieged by numerous accounts (several fake so I presume they’re all from the same sociopath) calling for her to be maimed, raped, or killed.
  • Dan Rather, of all people, had a spot-on rant about science denialism and false balance in the media.
  • Foreign Policy has an excellent longread on the history and future of antibiotics, focusing on the iChip, a new device that allowed scientists to find and work with new species of bacteria that can only survive in soil.
  • Opposed to genetic modification? GMO methods are in more than just foods, appearing in medicines, detergents, and other products that make our lives safer and better.
  • The New Republic looks at the complicated world of cannabidiol, the anti-convulsant/anti-psychotic chemical in marijuana, as state and federal authorities try to roll back often pointless policies on the drug. (Delaware became one of eighteen states to decriminalize possession of small amounts of marijuana this summer, and we now have one dispensary for medical marijuana.)
  • Sour flavors are making a comeback, thanks to globalization, rising popularity of healthful fermented foods, and a change in our attitudes towards sugar.
  • Reader Kelvin sent along this piece on Chris Bianco and the rise of Phoenix’s pizza scene, and I read it only to realize afterwards that I know the writer.
  • Harvard Law and Policy Review discusses the fallibility of finality vis-a-vis the death penalty, specifically the case of Richard Glossip, whose execution in Oklahoma was delayed about five weeks but only due to questions about the drug cocktail the state will use to murder him.
  • Superhumanoids’ new video, for the wonderfully-titled “Norwegian Black Metal,” features SNL player Kyle Mooney in corpse paint. I reviewed their latest album Do You Feel OK? last week.