Klaw: How strange it is to be anything at all. Klawchat.

Ryan: You talked about swing and miss with Kyle Lewis. I know he has more BBs than Ks this year. Are you saying that’s because of competition?
Klaw: You’re scouting the stat line there. You can swing and miss quite a bit and still walk a lot. And when scouts go see these players, they’re also looking at what the hitter does against better quality pitching. Lewis does play in a bad conference and hasn’t faced anything close to what the hitters in the SEC are facing.

Alex in Austin: In the past you seemed to be a proponent of Brian O’Connor and his program, yet after your most recent visit to Charlottesville it seems the sentiment has changed and you’re lower on Jones and Thaiss than others. What would you suggest the coaching staff do differently?
Klaw: I think he’s run a great college program, recruiting well, obviously winning games, and in general never overworked his arms. But over the last 4-5 years it seems like they’ve tried to imprint the same delivery on every pitcher, which 1) i don’t like because every player’s body is different and 2) the delivery they push appears to be less than mechanically sound.

John: Where would Groome be ranked in an average draft class?
Klaw: Top 5. Wouldn’t have been 1-1 in the peak years of 2009-12 (Strasburg, Harper, Cole, then Buxton/Correa).

Pat: Usual caveats aside, but Kaprielian touching 97 and absolutely dominating in High A is a great sign. Temper my unparalleled excitement a bit please.
Klaw: If I temper your excitement, who’s going to temper mine?

Bill: With Rutherford being 19, do you think he might be able to move faster than the 18 year-old HS prospects?
Klaw: I do. This is the hope if you draft him. I understand the history of 19-year-old HS bats is poor, but in this class I don’t see any better HS hit tools.

Patrick: What to make of Dylan Bundy’s two appearances for the Orioles? He was a hot prospect a few years back, but injury had sapped a lot of the excitement around him.
Klaw: Stuff looks fine but it’s a durability question. He’s got calcification in his shoulder, and I have zero idea how well he can hold up or how much he can pitch. (Which isn’t to say he can’t; I’m saying I have absolutely no clue, because we lack precedents.)

Joe: You have mentioned immaturity issues with Delvin Perez, are those issues enough to significantly effect his draft position?
Klaw: Yes, for now. Groome has some similar question marks. It speaks to their talent levels that I still have them 1-2 over Corey Ray, who has outstanding makeup.

Paul: Klaw – saw your tweet about reading ‘Danny, The Champion of the World” to your daughter. I was a huge Dahl fan as a kid. Saw ‘The BFG’ is coming to the big screen and hoping it’s good; would like to get my niece into his books.
Klaw: Klaw about an hour ago

David: I’m a Mets fan struggling to keep myself all calm and rational despite this early start…..oh, you mean I’m discussing Noah Syndergaard and his death slider??? Keith, i know it’s SSS but Syndergaard has 18 swings and misses on 45 sliders – how can one stay calm in the face of this? 🙂
Klaw: See my Kaprelian answer. Someone – Kurkjian maybe? – I work with picked Thor to win the CYA and that’s looking rather smart right now.

Uncle Ruckus: My Brew Crew have the 5th overall pick. What are the odds either SP Pint or Hansen are still available? I’m assuming Puk & Groome would already be taken. Or is a SS like Delvin Perez or any of the top shelf OFs so good that a team as loaded with young SS/OF talent as the Crew would pick one of them over a potential ace of the future? Thanks!
Klaw: Read my top 50 from the other day – Hansen is out of the rotation, Puk hasn’t really pitched in two weeks.

Tad Billows: I follow you pretty regularly and I am wondering what your thoughts are on the pitcher out of Pitt, named TJ Zeuch. The kid is 6’7″ tall, 225 lbs, sits 92-95 (topping out at 98), with a plus curve, avg to plus slider and a serviceable change up but I don’t recall you ever talking about him. I read from others that he is projected first or sandwich round. Sounds REALLY projectable. Thoughts?
Klaw: I’ve talked to scouts who’ve seen him and what you offered is not an accurate scouring report. What you described would probably be the odds-on 1-1 favorite.

Todd: Who are you most excited about in the A’s system and why?
Klaw: Barreto, because he’s the best prospect (duh?).

Matthew: Is Trace Thompson just a 4OF or can he see regular playing time here on out. Kendrick is apparently a possibility to see OF work too now so wondering how you think that plays out.
Klaw: I think he has a chance to be a regular. Not a lock, but enough defense + power to get there even if he strikes out too much.

Joey (Oakland): i had no idea how bad Khris Davis’ plate discipline is. He looks awful right now. Please tell me this is just early season bias and he’ll get better?
Klaw: He’s produced more than I expected the last two years but you identified the reason I thought he’d peak as a fourth OF. He has power, but as a hitter … I wouldn’t say he ‘can’t hit’ but his approach ranges from not good to lousy.

Craig: Do you see the Brewers taking a high-ceiling, low-floor player (college or HS) with the #5 pick?
Klaw: No. I see them taking best player available because that’s what Ray Montgomery has done in every draft he’s ever overseen as a scouting director. And if you look at his track record you should be very very fine with this.

Maddon: Contreras is continuing to rake at AAA. I know he has more to learn about catching, but isn’t 2-3 days of him better than having Ross and Montero take all seven games in a week?
Klaw: No, not if you agree that he has work to do behind the plate. It’s not like the big league team is hurting now either.

ECinDC: How did Erick Fedde look? Is he back to pre-draft form? Based on your tweets, seemed ok! Also, do Nats do anything particularly well dealing with young injured pitchers?
Klaw: Two pitch guy, nothing to get LHB out. Hard to see him as a starter with that arsenal.

Sean in Tallahassee: Saw your brief write up on D. Mendoza (Lake Minneola); any extended thoughts/how far is he from top 50 ranking?
Klaw: Has to be somewhere in the next 50 but the swing and miss plus the mechanics – the guy’s ass is in the dugout – give him huge bust potential.

Nate: You mentioned on twitter yesterday that the Reds weren’t in on Delvin Perez? Is there a particular reason they aren’t interested?
Klaw: I said I don’t think he’s in their mix. That could be wrong – it’s still plenty early for teams to change their minds.

Nils: You’ve mentioned many times to not read into small sample size. I understand that completely with regards to stats, but does that also go for tools? If a guy who usually throws 90-94 is suddenly hitting 95-98 in one game, do you wait to see it again before taking it seriously?
Klaw: Yes, that’s absolutely true. A dose of skepticism can come in handy in this job. I’d rather be a little late on the bandwagon than be the guy waving the flag for every kid who had a great outing.

Brian: Keith, you have seen a few games at Wilmington commenting on prospects from other orgs. Is there any prospect on the Wilmington roster worth keeping an eye on for a Royals fan? Thanks.
Klaw: Staumont, whom I tweeted about this morning. O’Hearn is the only bat of note and I see more strength than hit tool. He does put the ball in play a lot, which has gotten him some extra hits thanks to A-ball fielding. Usually a guy like him would swing and miss more.

David: Regarding HS pitchers – do teams prefer guys pitch 4 or 5 innings per week to “save” their arms? It amazes me that MLB teams will hand out 5 or 6M to a kid who pitches maybe 40-50 innings. I guess the real question is do you think being a work-horse pitcher is something you are born with or is it an attribute that can be molded?
Klaw: We don’t want to see anyone pitching while fatigued. There isn’t a magic number, but we all know what it looks like when a kid is tired – his velo drops, his command wavers, his arm slot drifts down, etc. If you’re a HS coach reading this, please, don’t do that. Take him out five pitches too soon if you have to.

Sven: Are teams generally being more aggressive in pushing their prospects? Alex Verdugo to AA at 19yo and Corny Randolph to full-A at 18yo?
Klaw: No, I thought Randolph had to go to Lakewood – most advanced HS bat in the class last year, what the hell is he going to learn in extended spring training? – and sending Verdugo to the Cal League might not help him much either.

Danny: Could a team win if they fielded a lineup that averaged an OBP of .375 but hit no home runs?
Klaw: Yes, but who the hell would watch?

Don: Hello Keith, love the chats and insider stuff should a team with small money allocations for the draft (like the cubs this year) be wise to spend big on one guy and draft seniors and other low dollar players to pay for it or try and draft evenly through the draft even though they likely wont get a known stud?
Klaw: I think they have to be prepared for the overslot kid who slides to them, so they can call the quick audible, take him, and know what their plan is through the rest of the top ten. If the right player doesn’t fall, then just take BPA as usual.

Don: When it comes to draft you say, and I believe also, you draft BPA but how big is each teams scouting board? when does the dart throwing start for teams? seems with 40 rounds teams would be taking shots in the dark in last 5-10 rounds
Klaw: The boards are usually structured in several segments; in Toronto we had the top board of anywhere from 50-100 guys, then started breaking down by position, with separate areas for medicals, unsignables, and so on.

Nelson: To what do you attribute the explosion of popularity of food tourism?
Klaw: Television. And I guess social media too. Eating is now an activity we share and discuss with people who aren’t at the table. I often eat alone on the road, which is fine with me because it’s quick and I always have a book, but a big dinner at a great restaurant with a bunch of friends is an experience to hold on to.

GN: My nephew is deciding right now between the University of Wisconsin on a full scholarship versus Harvard on no scholarship, which would incur him about $5k of debt per year. We’re getting all sorts of varying opinions on the matter, which would you choose? He’s interested in medicine btw, but he’s also 18 so who knows if that’s what he will pursue in the end.
Klaw: If it’s only $5k/year, go to Harvard. The value of that name on the resume will more than cover the added expense. If you were comparing full cost at Harvard to no cost at another school, I’d answer differently.

Alpha610: Only reason for Michael Reed not yet being up is because of the service time bs, right? Brewers are trotting out absolute scrubs in CF right now.
Klaw: I assume so but haven’t asked. He didn’t play AAA last year so perhaps they wanted him to get 100+ AB there.

Adam S: Why do major news outlets give a forum to so much anti-science, anti-fact? Today (pun intended) De Niro, but more broadly “analysis” lacking any factual basis on ESPN or MLB Network?
Klaw: Because they want eyeballs and give no fucks about fact, science, or responsibility. TODAY’s producers should be ashamed. I doubt they are though.

Tim: Hey Keith, enjoyed the top 50 – thanks for all of your and Eric’s hard work. If you’re the Reds, with the largest pool in the draft and the #2 and #35 picks in the 1st round, and the #42 pick (#2 in 2nd round), what would be your strategy with those three picks? (Assume Groome gets snatched up by the McPhillies). Seems like they can go underslot with their first pick and really go after guys they want with their 2nd two picks.
Klaw: I don’t think the Phillies want a HS arm at 1. If the Reds want Groome, great – probably demands full slot there, but you should get any player you take for the amount of the slot at #3, which would save you a million or so. I’d say then go hard after the guys you like at the next two slots – and while it’s illegal, yes, call some kids and say “hey, we’ll give you $3MM at pick 35, if you want that, tell other teams you’re not signing” because EVERYBODY does this – and then go cheaper in rounds 4-10 if necessary. A draft where you land three impact or elite upside talents is probably going to be a great one even if you have to take a few extra seniors to pay for it.

Mike: Please don’t consider this an angry “you hate my team” rant. I really want to ask if it is possible if PECOTA and other prediction methods don’t properly rate some types of teams? For example, both the Royals and Orioles seem to be consistently underrated in the preseason despite success in winning games the past few seasons (so we are past SSS). Does PECOTA maybe undervalue defense? Bullpens? Or God forbid, managers? With all the advances in statistical analysis, I just think there may be a small blind spot for some type of teams. Thanks!
Klaw: Better question for the folks who do those projections. My guess is that you’re focusing too much on small blips that over long periods would even out more. A projection system coming in short on one team three years in a row probably isn’t that unusual if we had the ability to look at 50 years of projections and results.

Lopez 2.0: It looks like Eovaldi has added a sick 89-91 mph slider to his arsenal. Got a lot of whiffs on it against Houston. However, in that outing the Astros consistently made contact with his 96-99 mph heater, and it looked like it had pretty good movement on it as well. Is the reason Eovaldi gets hit so often because guys see the ball so well out of his hands? I can’t think of anything else.
Klaw: That and the fastball is straight enough to hang laundry on.

David (ATL): When you start putting together mock drafts, what percentage of that is based on specific intel you are getting from clubs/scouts vs. your guesses based on prior drafts or organizational philosophy?
Klaw: As close to 100% as I can possibly get it. This is why I don’t do mocks early – teams haven’t narrowed their decision sets yet. And I hate saying “they’re on player X” and finding out later that they were not on player X.

JD: You seem unenthusiastic about this year’s crop. Does 2017 look more exciting?
Klaw: It does, and I’m not just saying that because that’s what we say every year. I like the college pitching crop already, and a couple of SoCal scouts have told me it’s a huge HS crop out there next year too.

Michael: I saw Lowe and Kieboom last Friday……Lowe showed his power first AB with a bomb to straighaway center. Question is how does he project defensively?? He did boot a ball that seemed like a fairly routine play at 3rd
Klaw: Nice, I’m planning to see Lowe vs Benson this Friday (and maybe stop by Spiller Park Coffee that morning). I’ve heard the arm plays anywhere but he’d need a lot of work at third. Would like to see myself, of course.

Dan: Odds right now on the #1 pick in June – are you taking Groome or the field?
Klaw: The field. I got a question from someone named Dan on Facebook that assumed that the no-hitter Groome threw the other day improved his standing and made him the favorite to go 1 now. My response was a bit short, but I’ll offer more depth here: No, it doesn’t, because results aren’t as important at that level as stuff, body, and mechanics (remember Patrick Schuster?); because Groome faces some awful competition and is going to put up some ungodly numbers down there; and because it happened before I posted my list so I would have made any adjustments if I thought one was required. I hope that answers other-Dan’s question more fully.

JD: Lets assume Olivera gets more severely punished — either legally or by the league — than Chapman and Reyes. Will you have any concern that stars are getting treated differently from lesser players — and particularly, foreign players without as solid a footing in the US?
Klaw: No because in this case i think MLB will have better info. If the police report is accurate, he may face jail time. The other two guys skated on legal repercussions.

G: Have you read “Possession” by A.S. Byatt? I find myself completely entranced by it–reminds me of Nabokov’s “Pale Fire” in deconstructing the novel.
Klaw: Yes. Didn’t love either of those books for the reason you liked them. I like novels. Stop deconstructing them in front of me.

addoeh: Any scouting trips planned to permafrost land to see Cooper Johnson, Lux, and Rortvedt? Plenty of Culver’s around, plus a trip to Kopp’s.
Klaw: Johnson perhaps, the others are probably going to be too tough with my schedule. Johnson at least is easy because he’s near Chicago and I can do other stuff while there.

Amru: At the end of the day, do Braves draft according to need (college bat), or do they take best player available (Pint, Perez, Rutherford, etc)?
Klaw: I don’t agree that those two will be different.

Mike: Does rhe 7-0 start change your opinion on the Orioles at all?
Klaw: No, because a major league season has 162 games.

Jake: Could Orlando Arcia be the #1 prospect next year if he doesn’t graduate?
Klaw: Sure, that’s possible.

Nelson: Do you see Inciarte and Mallex Smith in the same outfield on a championship caliber team?
Klaw: I do not.

Harrisburg Hal: Do you listen to music in front of your daughter? If so, how do you handle bad language? avoid it? talk over it? talk about it?
Klaw: Yes. We talk about it. She knows those words. I don’t really see a reason to censor bands she likes (e.g., CHVRCHES) because of an occasional profanity. If the song’s entire content were objectionable, that would be a different story. She’s still only 9 so topics like sex are still off limits.

Lucien: Thoughts on the Giants locking up Belt until 2021?
Klaw: Those deals are nearly always good for the clubs. This one was also good for the player given his injuries and inconsistency earlier in his career.

Joe: Where does Bo Bichette end up on the field? Any chance to stay at short?
Klaw: No chance at short. I think second or third. I like him more than the industry, I think; he’s calmed down his swing a lot, so early impressions may still be hurting him, plus his brother struggling could have people wary of Bo. I see an athletic kid with bat speed, strong hands, and a manic style of play.

Michael: It seems like a lot of teams purposely keep their better prospects in Florida or warmer areas to start the minor league season. Is that something you would do as an executive of a cold weather team? Should players learn to play in the cold, or does it not really matter?
Klaw: If a player were ready developmentally for low-A, I’d send him to low-A and buy him a winter coat.

Ryan: What college program comes to mind first when you think of a staff that manages arms well?
Klaw: Vanderbilt. They produce big leaguers and they’ve had fewer guys get hurt (compared to the total volume of arms) than any other major program.

UGW: Taylor Hearn has unreal stuff, but iffy command. Future reliever?
Klaw: No question.

Mumford’s son: How do MLB teams deal with that one prospect whose father seems like a nut job? Are there teams that won’t consider him at all?
Klaw: Yes, and some teams will just hope the father will be isolated once the player signs and moves away from home.

Kay: Mets fan here. Would this be a good year to have a pair of later first rounders? No clear huge talents at the top of the draft, bit more depth?
Klaw: It’s a good year to have what they have, money and an extra pick or two. You can get creative.

Andy: To the person who was amazed by teams giving 5-6million for kids who have pitched 50-60 innings but maybe could do more, Darren O’Day will be paid $6m this season with a career high in IP at 69.
Klaw: Nice.

Niel: Do you think Mazara could be up in the big leagues for good? When Choo gets back, maybe Desmond slides to CF and Mazara moves to left?
Klaw: And bench DeShields? I think it makes the lineup better, but I don’t think the Rangers view DD as that dispensable.

Martin: Keith, I hear Greg Maddux is getting his pitching staff to chart previous game pitches? Surely with modern day scouting it’s a token gesture or do you see any value in it?
Klaw: It forces the pitchers to focus attention on the games. If I tell you to watch a game, you’re not bearing down as you would if you had to chart the game.

Rich: Does kaprielian have top 2 starter potential with added velocity?
Klaw: Yes, in theory, although I think it’s a little early to start revising anyone’s ceiling. It’s all hypothetical now anyway – it’s not like players are changing teams in April.

Andy: The issue with the Michael Reed in AAA thing, they aren’t even playing him in CF. Instead, they’re playing Eric Young.
Klaw: I did not notice that, but that’s awful. The biggest surprise I have had out of David Stearns’ tenure there is that he did not turn over the player development staff after he got the job.

Lindsay: I really like when you call people out on black-and-white issues, such as climate change and vaccines. But it bothers me–and you can correct me if I’m wrong–when you do this on non-black-and-white issues. On Twitter, you seemed to imply that being pro-life is anti-woman and that the abortion debate is easy. I have thought long and hard about abortion and still don’t truly know which side to fall on. It is a hard issue. I am a woman too and I don’t think being pro-life is anti-woman at all.
Klaw: Twitter is lousy for anything that isn’t black and white. Any time I’ve thought about scaling back my Twitter use, that’s been the main reason. (I dreamed last night I’d been off Twitter for several months. It seemed rather unreal.) In that discussion with a reader who rather openly advocated for Kasich, I pointed out that his policies as a whole and his anti-abortion stance in particular were not pro-woman. However, I do think that giving a woman the right to an abortion, which includes the right to choose never to have an abortion, is a woman’s rights issue. Attempts by largely male government bodies to deny them this right, then craft convoluted exceptions – as I pointed out to that user, if a woman says she was raped and wants an abortion, does she need paperwork? Does she have to wait for a conviction? – strike me, at least, as contrary to a basic sense of human rights for women.

Brook: Do you think the NCCA rule change enabling agents to officially negotiate on behalf of HS kids will have any material impact on the draft? I would like to think better representation will lead to increased bonuses for prospects, but with the allotment caps, I’m not sure where that money would come from.
Klaw: I think it’ll allow teams to better understand what players want financially and make predraft conversations more productive. I’m hoping we’ll also get fewer postdraft misunderstandings that scotch deals. Karsten Whitson was one, where, as far as I could reconstruct the matter, his father was telling the Padres one thing and the advisor another.

Kay: When drafting/ranking prospects, how much value is there in a high floor? There’s such a high failure rate for developing players, I imagine there’s value in having a “sure” bet for an average-above average player. How do you factor in high ceiling vs. low floor in your ranking?
Klaw: Good question that is impossible to answer in a clear, logical fashion, because the rankings themselves are subjective. I do a lot of pairwise comparisons, and think about whether i’d rather have what this player is likely to be, times some mental estimate of his probability, versus what this player is likely to be (or could be, if it’s a high-ceiling guy), times some mental estimate of that probability.

Eric: Hey Keith, great chat. Not going to hold you to it, but do you have a general idea in your head where Brandon McIllwain would’ve ranked in your draft top 50 if he stayed in H.S. for his senior baseball season?
Klaw: Thought he was a late first-rounder.

Amru: What’s the ceiling on Braxton Davidson? A Mitch Moreland-type player, or is that perhaps too optimistic? I know he’s consistently been younger than his competition, but have to worry some about the strikeouts.
Klaw: Needs to be more aggressive when he gets ahead in the count. Saw two hits today, then two strikeouts vs Swanson on bigger velocity. Think he has more upside than Moreland, but a long way to go to get there.

Tyler: True or False: Fredi Gonzalez is the Braves manager at the All Star break.
Klaw: True.

Casey: How likely do you think it is Alec Hansen drops to the 30’s? Might a team do something similar with him that the Royals did with Manaea?
Klaw: Yes, but I don’t know to what extent his issues are physical, and if teams will know ahead of time the way they knew Manaea needed hip surgery.

Martin: Have you managed to catch The Night Manager (Hugh Laurie) yet? If so, thoughts?
Klaw: Hasn’t aired here yet. First episode is Tuesday, I think.

Amru: Given your hectic schedule, how do you manage to find time to satisfy your voracious reading appetite? I swear it never seems like there’s enough time in the day to fit more than a couple chapters in.
Klaw: I bring a book with me wherever I go.

Corey: Benintendi has picked up where he left off, raking in Salem. How soon would you consider moving him to AA and at his current trajectory possible he’s in MLB by next season a la Conforto ? Speaking of Salem, best team in the minors ? crazy how much talent is there
Klaw: Conforto made the majors 12 months after he signed, so for Benintendi that would be this June. If they want that to happen, they have to have a quick trigger on a promotion to AA. I think he’ll be ready for that soon if not already.

Ridley Kemp: Aren’t you concerned about being labelled a “Social Justice Warrior” and getting on someone’s list?
Klaw: I’ve been labelled lots of things. Doesn’t bother me.

Ben: Quantrill to the A’s at 6, is that a probable outcome?
Klaw: He hasn’t pitched this year, so I’d say no. I’ve heard they’d love Senzel if he’s there.

Corey: Except that pro-life usually means pro-birth since that crowd doesn’t seem to care much about “life” after delivery.
Klaw: And the responsibility for that life falls disproportionately on the mother. I have thought about this, and read about it, for probably 20 years, trying to even craft a rational policy that restricts abortion (just as a thought exercise) without being internally illogical or structurally discriminatory. I haven’t found one.

ECinDC: Related to football players getting paid, which I think you support, what you you think should be done for baseball players? Seems to make sense that they should be able to go pro at any point if NCAA wants to continue to not pay.
Klaw: I agree. I think the “stay for three years” rule is stupid. Why is MLB helping college baseball? Does college baseball help MLB? In general, college coaches don’t develop players, and we have the constant conflict over pitcher use.

Fred Wilpon’s accountant: I went through your profile of the top 50 draft prospects and, admittedly I didn’t count them, but it seemed like there were quite a few names from colder weather states. This is not something I have paid attention to in the past so it may not be unusual but I expected fewer names from the north. Is it unusual or am I seeing something that is not there?
Klaw: It’s a weak year in SoCal and Texas.

Kay: For the record, I feel like you sometimes rub people the wrong way because you are very sure of your beliefs and don’t really budge to dissenting opinions. I’m cool with you have different feelings on subjects than I do – that’s kind of how discourse and debate work. I appreciate that you have very strongly held morals and beliefs.
Klaw: Thank you. I think this is also a function of Twitter, or just writing in general, because it often comes off as toneless (or readers infer the tone they want – if you like what I say, I’m being funny, if you dislike it, I’m being an asshole). In person, even when arguing Big Serious Topics, I don’t think I come off so harshly, although I guess I’ll leave that to the readers I’ve met over the years to verify or debunk.

Sean: Orphan Black. 4.14.2013. See you then.
Klaw: I assume you mean this week’s premiere … we’ll binge it this summer, since we whacked most of our cable subscriptions.

Michael: Like you, I wish college players in revenue sports would get paid. But I struggle to think of a method to actually do this. Should the best players receive signing bonuses out of high school? Surely, the field goal kicker shouldn’t make the same as the quarterback. How would you actually go about paying them?
Klaw: Market value with a preset minimum tied to revenue. QBs will get big money, Kickers would likely get the minimum.

Ryan: Still think Senzel in the top 5 is a bad move? Where do you stand on his future power?
Klaw: I’ve heard it’s more like 55 raw, but plays down in game. If I told you you could have an average defender at third with average power and an above-average hit tool, where would you take that? Is that peak Bill Mueller?

Adam: Will Bobby Dalbec have to pitch at the next level to be successful?
Klaw: He isn’t getting anywhere at the plate right now.

BD: At even the best NCAA baseball programs, most players are not on full scholarship correct? Or has that changed?
Klaw: I believe that’s correct.

Andy: While I realize that players determine somewhat, do laws like North Carolina’s HB2 mean that you may choose to not see someone live to avoid traveling to the state?
Klaw: If I have such discretion, yes, I would try to see those players elsewhere.

Drew: It strikes me as odd to bring up Kepler strictly as a 4th outfielder (injury replacement). I would rather he get regular AB’s with the hope that he hits his way to the everyday big league lineup by summer. Thoughts?
Klaw: I would too, but I’ll also wait and see how this plays out a bit. Perhaps they’re planning to send Buxton out sooner rather than later if the strikeouts continue.

Ridley Kemp: It boggles my mind that the very concept of probability was developed so late in the game. What’s the next science or math book on your radar?
Klaw: Brian Greene’s Elegant Universe.

Michael: As a pro-science person though, how do you reconcile the overwhelming scientific evidence that a zygote, for instance, is human and an entirely separate being from the mother? If you ignore the social aspects and just focus on the biological ones, it’s somewhat difficult to be pro-choice.
Klaw: Because this “overwhelming scientific evidence” does not exist.

Jeff: I know the team just made the World Series, but isn’t Terry Collins one of the worst possible managers to have on a team built on pitching? Maybe it’s just personal bias, but it seems like the man destroys arms, no? He has Henderson pitching today, his 5th appearance in 8 games, after he threw 35 pitches last night!
Klaw: Lot I don’t like about Collins, but I have never thought of him as a destroyer of arms.

Amru: So does this mean we can’t expect you to visit Asheville again anytime soon? A large majority of us Ashevillains hate and revile HB2.
Klaw: Actually never been there.

Jose G: Hey Keith, I know how much you hate comps but reading your acouting report on Kyle Lewis, I couldn’t help but think George Springer. What’s the likelihood that Lewis goes to the Braves at 3 for a discount?
Klaw: He’s not like Springer. Springer was way more physical at that age. Maybe the toolsiest college position player I’ve ever seen.

Pat: Like others, I don’t always agree with everything you say (talking SERIOUS issues, not baseball), but, appreciate your candor & firm beliefs. With that in mind, what is a “serious issue”, you don’t have a firm belief or something you go back & forth on? I’ll admit mine has always been abortion.
Klaw: I find drug legalization a complex one, although if asked to stake one position, I’m in favor of decriminalizing use. A lot of economics questions fall in the gray area for me, often because any new policy will create or change who wins and who loses. The minimum wage discussion we had here under Saturday’s stick to baseball post is a good example: I support higher minimum wages, but recognize they won’t benefit everyone, and feel like they’re being treated as a panacea when they’re really just shifting around some surpluses.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Baker > Collins.
Klaw: Can’t do that. Baker’s got a long history of mistakes.

Jake: Let’s just end all of the questions about who the Braves could take at #3 by asking this; who do you think the Braves take at #3?
Klaw: It depends on who goes 1 and 2!

Tim: Do you think Polanco will ever hit enough fly balls to homer 30 times a year? I’m just imagining some of those laser beams he hits off the PNC Park Wall turning into 450 foot bombs into the river……
Klaw: Yes. Certainly 25.

Jeb: Do you think that any new, effective pitches have yet to be discovered? I’d like to believe that someone could come up with a new way to spin and move a ball given all the possible permutations, but I’m guessing that given the limitations of the human arm/hand/wrist, we may have already tested everything.
Klaw: Inclined to think the latter. Just a guess.

Jeb: Have you tried any ramen places in NY?
Klaw: Only one, in Chelsea Market. I need to try more everything in NY. It’s a goal for 2016.

John: In the Cubs’ only loss so far, Maddon decided to let Strop pitch to Goldschmidt in the bottom of the 8th with 2 outs and the tying run on third (Peralta on deck). Goldschmidt ended up knocking in the run, then Peralta got out. Maddon got some mild criticism for not calling for the IBB, but didn’t he make the right call? Over the long haul, isn’t it better to avoid the IBB (even with someone as good as Goldschmidt up) when the on deck hitter is also pretty good?
Klaw: Yes, and you usually want to avoid putting on another runner (and potential run), and to avoid reducing your pitcher’s margin for error if the IBB were to load the bases.

Ryan: Regarding the Kyle Lewis question earlier, would you have a problem with Atlanta taking him at 3 if they get him at less than the 4th pick’s slot?
Klaw: If Ray’s on the board I would not be a fan of this.

Martin: Austerity or debt fuelled stimulus?
Klaw: My problem – and I’m not that great on econ stuff – is that when we rack up debt during a recession to stimulate the economy, we kind of forget to pay it off when the economy is growing again.

JD: Mallex Smith didn’t make your Braves top-20+, so I don’t think I’ve seen you write about him. Thought?
Klaw: Can run, high contact guy, no power. Tough profile in this environment where similar low-power guys like Hamilton and Burns have had trouble making enough quality contact to be good hitters. Those two have contributed as defenders; I don’t have a good enough feel for Smith’s defense to say he might be that good. Also, Atlanta’s system is loaded.

Ryan: What kind of stat line do you project Corey Ray to put up in the big leagues? .280/.340 with 20 homers/20 steals?
Klaw: Yep, I could see that. I mentioned that he’s had issues with lefties this year, but I should have qualified that that’s from scouts saying he doesn’t see them well; he actually has no real platoon split on the season as a whole.

His dopey manager: Does Syndergaard have the best stuff in the big leagues?
Klaw: Kershaw’s still got that title for me.

Jeb: Totto’s Hell’s Kitchen location is awesome. Terrible lines, but the ramen is excellent.
Klaw: I’ve waited in line at Franklin BBQ with @lana so I’m not afraid of a little wait.

JD: Played Patchwork yet? Delightful two-player game, seems like something your daughter might enjoy based on how you’ve described her gaming tastes.
Klaw: Yep, reviewed it about this time last year. App is good too if you can get past the cutesy graphics.

mets: Collins just put in Henderson after he threw a career high last night and predictably he loads the bases with no outs. wtf!
Klaw: Isn’t he just back from shoulder surgery too? I hope I’m thinking of the wrong guy.

Joe: Not a draft question – how often, if at all, is the baseline of “replacement player” adjusted? Who makes that decision? Is there consensus on what constitutes replacement level or do different organizations/publications use their own standards?
Klaw: When asked to open that particular box, Pandora said, “Fuck it.”

Klaw: That’s all for this week – thank you for jumping up a day with me. I think I’ll be back to Thursday next week. I’ll also have a short column on the minors’ best Opening Day rosters for prospects out on Friday, plus other blog posts coming in the next couple of days.

Klaw: Let a sucker slide once, then I break his neck. Klawchat.

Jack: I saw an article that you and some Phillies brass were at the Groome start. What is the general protocol for you interacting with team employees at games? I assume it varies based on how well you know each other, but is the range from “don’t even acknowledge it’s each other’s presence” to “it’s like running into old friends”?
Klaw: I know so many of these guys that it’s more like the latter. I look forward to games like that because I’ll see so many friends there.

James: How would you compare Groome to Allard and Aiken?
Klaw: Better than Allard – more physical, more present velocity, less effort. Aiken was more advanced, showing three (arguably four) pitches and better command, but bear in mind Tuesday was not a full effort outing.

John: Does Groome being a “hometown kid” have any effect on whether the phillies should select him or not? Would the added pressure have any effect on the decision?
Klaw: No. This is media bullshit we get almost every year. Teams are generally not that stupid. You take the best player, not the best player in your backyard.

Eric: Keith, have you ever seen a 95mph slider before? Thor looks even better than advertised in your opinion who is the first pitcher the Mets lock up long term or do you think they will wait until they’re all eligible for free agency
Klaw: No and I’m guessing that was a cutter (or a bad gun reading). Thor is the one guy of their aces I’d most want to lock up – I think he offers the best potential for durability. [Post-chat edit: sounds like pitch f/x had that velocity and Syndergaard called it a slider. I think it would be the hardest slider in MLB history.]

Drew: Brandon Finnegan looked good with his first start and I understand it was vs. the Phillies. What are your thoughts on a potential mid rotation starter ?
Klaw: I see no chance of that. Reliever all the way.

Lyle: So, Drew Jackson. Couple of things: 1) Understand that Mariners fans had so little in the minors to be even hopeful about that we want him to be someone who exceeds his projections, and 2) You’re the prospect guy so I’m sure that you’re much more likely to be right about his projection than you are to be wrong. Having said all that, what kind of performance would Jackson need to have in the Cal League (skipping the MWL) in order for you to bump him up a level or two (say, from org guy to AAAA guy to fringe regular)?
Klaw: Bakersfield is a good place to hit (as is the league in general) so I don’t pay much attention to college products’ stats there. In Jackson’s case, he really wasn’t much of a hitter in college, so making more contact and showing some plate discipline would be some progress, I suppose. But I’d say wait till AA.

David: I know previously you said the Phillies were not interested in a HS pitcher at #1, but with Groome’s ability and polish, and the relative disappointment of the college crop, is Groome now the odds on favorite at #1?
Klaw: No. There is no “odds on favorite” this year. There’s no Harper or Strasburg or even Cole. I do think Groome is the best prospect in the class now, having talked to a lot of folks about how Ray has looked this year, but that doesn’t make him the odds-on anything.

David: No question, just wanted to say you were great on TV and enjoyed hearing your insight during the broadcast.
Klaw: Thank you – it was fun to do it and the guys (Boog, Sut, Doug) all made it easy for me.

Bill: Do you have a suggested starting place for P.G. Wodehouse? He shows up on your top books list, but when I was looking for his books recently there seem to be a bunch, including random short story collections that have a bunch of overlap, and no clear place to start.
Klaw: I started with the collection Enter Jeeves, which was three books in one, two of short stories and one novel.

Dave: Do you have The Food Lab in your cookbook arsenal? I was a slow cooker carnitas guy also until I tried the crispy skin pork shoulder recipe, it’s a showstopper. Great book
Klaw: I do – yes, great book.

Droopydave: Are the the benefits of 19 and 20 year old’s playing in major colleges with diet and nutrition programs vs those eating fast food playing in lower levels of the minors valued by organizations? Or has this been corrected?
Klaw: You think teams don’t have diet and nutrition programs? Players are better off in pro ball, no matter what colleges try to tell you.

Justin: So my took my 17 month old to get his 2nd round of flu shot’s 2 months ago. The kid was literally never sick, he’d only been to the doctor only for his vaccines. Since then, we’ve been over a dozen times…reoccuring wheezing, cough, eczema, runny nose, the whole atroph march and it never ends . Of course its not the flu shot, right? Others have told me similar stories and my wife is becoming convinced. I stand firm but admit I’m starting to question it. Any suggested reading materials? Man, having kids sucks sometimes.
Klaw: It’s not the flu shot. But man does that sound like an allergic reaction to something (I am, of course, not a doctor). I hope your son feels better soon.

Frank: Can we expect this type of performance moving forward from Nicasio
Klaw: No. It’s one start – and he still hasn’t shown a third pitch.

Eric: I saw that the Blue Jays manager defended himself with “my wife, daughters, etc. didn’t have a problem with it”. Isn’t that the “I have a lot of African-American friends” defense?
Klaw: Yes, it is. Plenty of people, women and men, did have a problem with it. Regardless of his motivation, he was wrong to say it, and MLB should act on that.

Michael: Whenever a friend or family member uses the r word, I generally tell him/her that it’s inappropriate. On more than one occasion, they have responded that people like me are indirectly responsible for the rise of Trump and the anti-PC crowd. You commonly correct people on Twitter and in chats. Do you agree with this sentiment? Do you think it’s possible you’re actually accomplishing the opposite of what you’re intending, and creating something far worse?
Klaw: I believe sunlight is the best disinfectant.

Chris P: What is up with Mariners prospects…Alex Jackson going back to extended spring?!?!
Klaw: Yep. Not a great situation, but it’s not like he’s performed near expectations yet.

addoeh: What would your costume if you won John Oliver’s commoner in the premium seats at Yankee Stadium contest?
Klaw: Foppish dandy: http://www.theonion.com/article/foppish-dandy-disregards-local-constabulary-1115

Jeff: Klaw, how many teams and players have you totally changed your mind on since Opening Day based on their performance? Thanks!
Klaw: Klaw about an hour ago

Michael: It seems like some people were surprised Alford will start in Dunedin. Do you think they should have challenged him at AA or better to take your time with a guy who hasn’t played much pro ball?
Klaw: I think he’ll get to AA soon enough, maybe once it warms up … but didn’t they do a bunch of strange things with assignments there? Why was Sean Reid-Foley demoted to low-A?

Dan: Hey Keith, nice seeing you during the game last night! What did you thank about Nola? The obvious caveat about a weak lineup applies, but he seemed to locate well and worked efficiently. He was obviously getting tired in his last inning when he fell behind 3-0 to the first two hitters but he came back to strike both of them out. As I Phillies fan, it was a fun game to watch (for the first eight innings).
Klaw: Looked great. Curveball is definitely better than it was a year ago. Still see a mid-rotation guy long-term, league-average to above league-average, probably someone you hope is your third-best starter when you’re contending.

Dan: Anfrenee Grier was somewhat heralded in HS as talented but raw. He seems to have improved his draft stock, but still seems quite raw. Does he project as an everyday player given his developmental path to date? Much thanks.
Klaw: Projects as an above-average regular with unusual upside for a college guy between his tools and his youth (I think he’s 20.7 on draft day?).

“Lighten Up” Guy: You chat like a girl
Klaw: Thoughtfully?

Michael: Re your comments on Henry Ford, where would you draw the line with historical figures? Do T.S. Eliot, Robert E. Lee, Dr. Seuss, Woodrow Wilson, and Thomas Jefferson, for instance, always need a disclaimer, or can we celebrate them for what they were good at (literary, political, or military genius) and quietly leave the rest alone?
Klaw: Ford bought a newspaper just so he could spread his hate of Jews, reprinted the Protocols of the Elders of Zion, and accepted an award from the Nazi government. He was beyond the pale.

Joe: I know all teams want a piece of opening day, so the schedule makers can’t just stick with warm weather cities for the first two weeks. But shouldn’t all the games scheduled for cold weather cities at least be in-division games? That way, any weather problems don’t force an immediate doubleheader or losing a mutual off day later in the season. Seems like bad scheduling to have New York host Houston instead of Toronto, for example.
Klaw: Having two dome teams play each other was pretty stupid too.

Tom: Heaney just went on the DL with forearm tightness. A couple of years ago, Skaggs went on the DL with forearm tightness. This is an obvious place to jump to conclusions, right?
Klaw: There is no such thing as good forearm tightness, flexor strain, or biceps tendinitis.

BD: I’m not one for Spring Training and 1st week stats either, but when there is a dramatic physical change, I wonder. Does Wilson Ramos getting LASIK mean anything? He looks a lot better (so far)
Klaw: I believe physical changes like you describe have real, lasting effects that we should be aware of, but that we still need a few weeks of data at the absolute minimum before we can say “yep, he’s better.”

Tom: I’m sort of confused on the whole Joey Bats controversy. People were saying the Utley Rule or something was enforced, but has it ever been legal to slide into second and grab the defender’s leg as you go by?
Klaw: MLB seems to have said the Utley rule covered it, but I agree with you that at least one and probably two rules already on the books made that play illegal. Also, Bautista was out; why the hell should he be allowed to affect anything on the field at that point?

John: Genuinely interested, not trolling. Why was it okay for you to poke fun at Ron Paul’s/Bobby Valentine’s appearance, but I presume you would never do that with women?
Klaw: Clearly trolling, since I didn’t poke fun – I just pointed out a resemblance – and you’re basing this stupid question on a stupid presumption of what I would do in a hypothetical situation. Think critically for a second.

MJ: Cano is off to a great start, carrying over from his second half and big spring. Have you seen any kind of mechanical adjustment that has led to his hot play since last summer or is he just finally healthy?
Klaw: I think he’s finally healthy. Did he need a mechanical adjustment? I don’t know of anything from last year (which could be my own ignorance) that would point to that.

Vance: What’s your take on that good, uhm, parable in Colorado right now? Has that yarn spinner learned to hit? I know SSS, but it’s still interesting.
Klaw: I said on the BBTN podcast this morning that he is probably just an average regular, but he could easily be better than Reyes, who can’t play shortstop any more anyway, so if the hot start means Anecdote keeps the job all year, so much the better for the Rockies.

Finch: What would you need to see from Jurickson Profar to consider this season a success?
Klaw: Just health. I don’t doubt he’ll hit and, if the arm is indeed fully recovered, field well.

Wellington: Are there any HS guys from Northern California, other than Manning that could go within the first 2 days of the draft?
Klaw: He’s the only one on my list right now; among college guys, there’s Daulton Jeffries at Cal (missed last start with a calf injury) and Lucas Erceg at Menlo College, an NAIA school. Erceg “left” Cal in the fall – there are various rumors about why, none of which seems very favorable to the player – and is putting up Nintendo numbers at the smaller program.

Andrew: What would you do re Rusney Castillo if it were up to you? It seems to me like
Klaw: Sorry you got cut off, but I think they’re doing the right thing with him at the moment.

Jack: Which draft prospect’s stock has fallen/risen the most since the beginning of the season?
Klaw: Hard to slip more than Alec Hansen, who was a 1-1 candidate but has been bad and hurt. Rising could be Grier or possibly Joey Wentz, HS lefty near KC (same town as Pint but they don’t face each other), gone from just a good arm to clear first-rounder.

Vance: In the time since Trout was drafted have teams become better at scouting cold weather city players?
Klaw: That’s unfair to teams scouting that year – it was miserable in the northeast, tons of rain, so he didn’t play often and was just harder to see. He also was not an 80 runner in high school.

Tim: Have you ever thought about doing a later chat, maybe 8 or 9 PM EST? I can’t be the only one secretly doing this at work…
Klaw: If I’m home at that hour, I’m with my family, and if I’m not home, I’m probably at a game.

BD: Maryland starter Mike Sharwyn bumped from Friday to Sunday… why the regression this year, and can he fix it?
Klaw: Think he’s a reliever anyway. Might be better off in that role now.

Keith: Re: Thor and his slider – definitely had slider movement around 92-95. Still, I don’t remember seeing a starter like Noah pretty much ever – 100ish 4seam, mean 2seam/sinker at 95+, solid change, and good breaking stuff – sky the limit? The only guy who compares in recent memory is Strasburg, but Thor seems to have a better temperament and composure on the mound.
Klaw: Very different personalities, and Thor does it easier anyway. One of the best examples I can remember of a guy who was nearly all projection in high school and has hit just about every milestone or leaped every developmental hurdle you could think of. Every year, something has gotten better. I also wonder if that gradual improvement is part of why he’s stayed healthy, as opposed to the Strasburg or Zumaya types who showed up after one offseason with 10 extra mph.

Matt: Scott Schebler a viable platoon OF long term? how would you rate the power/speed tools? 55 each potentially?
Klaw: Think he’s more of a 4A guy.

Michael: Rome’s rotation by May could be Soroka, Fried, Allard, Touki, and Sanchez……..any chance you’ll be catching some games down here potentially?? Also got Riley, Acuna and Herbert among the position players
Klaw: Great team but not likely I’ll come there – they’ll come up north to Delmarva or Lakewood.

Andrew: Just to finish my Castillo thought – is he a 4th/5th OF now? Did the Red Sox just whiff and spend $72 million on a bench player, or is there more there?
Klaw: There was always some fourth OF risk – great defender but it seemed like no one was sold on the bat, or the power, or both. And at his age, can you hope for more development if he goes to AAA?

Terrance: Hey Klaw, I know it’s not your fault but ESPN giving Greg Hardy that softball interview with Adam Schefter, and Schefter subsequently going around referring to Hardy as a “changed man” may be my last straw with the Worldwide Leader, as far as giving them my Insider money. I’ll still follow your personal website, of course.
Klaw: I personally do not believe men who beat women can change. And there’s some psychological research that says rapists can’t change. So I don’t know why we did that.

Carla: Did the BJ’s blow it by trading Thor?
Klaw: Nice pun. In hindsight, yes, I think so.

Brian: You said a few weeks ago that Austin Riley has slider bat speed. What does that mean for him going forward? Does it take away his chance of being an impact guy, or is it still doable with slider bat speed? Thanks.
Klaw: Slider bat speed means a guy who can’t catch up to average or better fastballs without cheating (starting his bat early). It’s not a good thing. I had heard that on Riley last year, and it’s what I saw in March. Let’s see how it plays out as he’s facing some better velocity in low-A this year.

Joe: When will you be updating the draft rankings? Thanks
Klaw: Next week. Eric and I have been working on them the last few days.

Bill: Aaron Sanchez looked awesome in his first start of the year. Got several whiffs (on some change-ups, too!). Have you had a chance to watch any of his start? No walks…reasons to be encouraged?
Klaw: Again, just one outing. Strikes are good, though.

Grant from Chicago: I noticed Cease, de la Cruz, Wilson and Hudson are still in XST. Thoughts on why they haven’t been assigned to South Bend?
Klaw: Why would they be? Cease isn’t even two years back from TJ and barely pitched last year. Hudson might stay in short-season all year. Wilson could too.

Mike: Last week you talked about how the college game can be very boring as the coaches micromanage. How does that affect how you scout the players? Is it difficult when players are constantly told to sac bunt or take pitches?
Klaw: Well it’s really hard to scout a hitter when the idiot coach bats him third and has him bunt in the first inning.

Jay: In the past you’ve talked about Dom Smith’s 70 throwing arm at 1B. Could you talk about the value of, say, an 80 arm at 1B versus a 50 arm there, over the course of a season? Never know how to weigh that. Thanks!
Klaw: It’s a small benefit but plays like the 3-6-3 or 3-6-1 double play become easier, or even the 3-5 play too. I’d say I never need my first baseman to have a plus arm, but it’s nice if he does.

Joe: If the Nats are thinking about Giolito as a second half asset would it make more sense to start him in AAA or does it not really matter?
Klaw: Don’t think it matters.

Drew: I know it’s early… but any insight on the Reds draft pick at #2 ? Do you see Corey Ray or Nick Senzel worthy of the pick.. maybe Rutherford ?
Klaw: Think those guys are all in their mix, plus Groome, Pint, maybe Delvin Perez. Puk is a wild card; if he misses any time (he came out on Sunday after 11 pitches due to back spasms) I have to think he slides.

Doug: Who are the top players for the 2017 draft?
Klaw: I don’t know much about the HS class but the college crop includes Jeren Kendall and Kyle Wright at Vanderbilt and Alex Faedo at Florida.

Devon Rosene: Hi, Keith. I suffer from severe anxiety and depression and your candidness on the subject has been very inspiring. Thank you for having the courage to be generous with your personal history.
Klaw: You’re welcome, and I hope you find treatment options that help you.

Justin: You wrote that the 4 rookies on the Reds rotation have a ton of downside and I assume that’s because they are inexperienced. But do you see any top of the rotation guys in there for the future?
Klaw: That was for this year, and it was inexperience, reliever risk (Finnegan), command/control risk (Stephenson especially), etc. Stephenson has ace stuff, highest upside of these arms.

Michael: If you were in charge of the Jays, what kind of punishment would you give Gibbons? Assume you didn’t know this side of him or inherited him.
Klaw: I think it has to come from MLB and will. A large fine and a few days off would make it clear to other managers to watch their mouths. Then again, I thought Ausmus should have been sacked for making light of domestic abuse, and he’s still there.

Ty: After thinking Swanson would beat Albies to Atlanta I had a hard time thinking he’d be the SS of the future. Now, that Albies is ahead I think he will be the new SS. Disagree?
Klaw: Disagree. I think you’re reading too much into the assignments.

Mike: Do you plan on seeing Ian Anderson once the weather warms up in the Northeast?
Klaw: Yes, soon. He was snowed out yesterday though.

Jacob: Just an interested Jays fan. What did you think of Ricky Romero at the time he was drafted? Pretty sure you preferred Tulo, but did you still like Romero? How about David Purcey?
Klaw: Preferred Tulo. Thought Romero was lower-upside, mid-rotation maybe, with usual risk of any pitching prospect, while I thought Tulo was a star. I did not see Purcey pitch that spring (I saw the guys I just mentioned) but was concerned about his walk rates and that scouts were saying he was basically a two pitch guy.

Greg: Keith, there’s another baseball site that has Senzel as the #2 overall draft prospect. Are you anywhere near on board with that? It seems crazy for a guy with limited game power and defensive questions.
Klaw: That’s Baseball America. I don’t agree and we won’t have him near that high. I’m not saying they’re wrong or we’re right, but I share your concerns.

Keith: I’ve seen scouts rate Dom Smith’s arm as 50-55. I get that scouting is pretty subjective, but what is it that accounts for such large disparity between scouting opinions on something that should be pretty straightforward – arm strength, running, etc?
Klaw: You’ve seen scouts do that? Which scouts are sharing their reports with you?

wickethewok: Now that Gregory Polanco has signed an extension, whose contract is more valuable to the Pirates going forward between Polanco and Marte?
Klaw: I think Polanco’s going to end up the better player because I think he has a better approach at the plate and better overall feel for the game. As with everything else here, it’s just my opinion. If you want to argue Marte will be the more valuable player, I’ll listen.

Michael: Should the Yankees consider trading Gary Sanchez? With McCann under contract for a little while longer, it could become a misuse of resources, no?
Klaw: McCann has hit .232/.303/.421 as a Yankee. The misuse of resources might be playing him over Sanchez in 2017.

Ben: When scouting a pitcher, do you factor in at all how good they are themselves at the plate?
Klaw: Mostly no. But it’s one sign of athleticism, so that counts by proxy.

JR: In general, how many years does it take to evaluate how well a team did in any particular draft? 3? 5? More?
Klaw: I think five years is fair. Sometimes you know sooner that a draft was a disaster, because of injuries or releases, but think of how long it took for Devon Mesoraco to become any sort of prospect, let alone a big leaguer.

Nik: You’ve always been pretty down on Maikel Franco, but everyone is predicting a major breakout – are you getting on that train?
Klaw: That’s totally inaccurate – I have not “always been pretty down” on him; I rated him in the top 100 once, had him as a breakout prospect the year before, and still had him second or third in the system last year. I don’t think he has a very good approach at the plate, but as I tweeted last night, he’s crazy strong, and he can drive a lot of pitches most hitters can’t keep fair. I think he’ll be a good player, an above-average regular, but I am not predicting a major breakout.

Tom: You picked the Angels to finish 4th. Why the optimism?
Klaw: Average depth. Terrible top ten.

David: Do you think Manny Margot gets more than a cup of coffee with the Padres this year? What’s his upside?
Klaw: At this rate he’ll be their cleanup hitter by Tuesday.

Jacob: I remember a scout in Lansing saying he couldn’t believe Syndergaard signed for only $600k out of high school. Was he a guy who just wanted to sign or was he somewhat unheralded in high school?
Klaw: Totally unheralded. Only 4-5 teams were really on him, and only two were on him where the Jays took him. He was 88-92 to start his senior year and had no breaking ball. He also had some local attorneys rather than major agents as advisers, which may have hurt him in terms of getting the word out.

Andy: My issue with the Caucasians shirt is that I’ve seen some people say, “Well I’m not offended by that and I’m white, so clearly no one should be offended by the Wahoo image.” I almost wish it were more offensive.
Klaw: That’s because those people are stupid. The Caucasians shirt isn’t offensive; it’s jarring because we never see white people objectified like that. If you saw it, you reacted to it, because it’s so rare.

Adam: Do you think Mallex will be comparable or better than Inciarte?
Klaw: Better runner but much less juice.

Greg: Given that this draft is more depth than star power, does it make sense for teams up top to try cutting under slot deals with their first pick and load up on quantity, since there isn’t a ton of quality?
Klaw: The CBA all but mandates that unless you’re getting a Strasburg/Harper type. Everyone up top expects to sign their player for the slot figure of the subsequent pick, a difference that in the top few picks is near a million dollars of savings.

John: What position would you project Jeimer Candelario to play in the bigs if he were to be traded from the Cubs? How close would he be to the MLB if he wasn’t blocked by a star like Kris Bryant?
Klaw: Left field.

Mark: After a ho-hum first two years, Cavan Biggio looks to have turned the corner. Where does he go in the draft ?
Klaw: I think fourth-fifth rounds, maybe third because he’s famous, but he’s not actually having that great a year (in a bad conference) and he’s not very tooled up.

cj: Do you think the braves would take a chance on blake rutherford
Klaw: I expect him to be on their short list. He might be the best pure hit tool in the class.

JG: Is this Rickard kid for real?
Klaw: I don’t think he’s more than a fourth or fifth OF and didn’t think so when he was in Tampa’s system.

Eric: At what point in the draft do you believe it is no longer to early to select a pitcher that will, in all likelihood, end up as a reliever (even a high-caliber reliever)?
Klaw: Depends a little on the draft, but I would not do this in the first round.

Ryan: Can Albert Almora be the Cubs everyday CF next year or will he not hit enough?
Klaw: Leaning towards yes.

addoeh: If you had a chance to go back in time and watch one former prospect in action, who would it be?
Klaw: I’d want to go back to see some of the Negro League stars like Cool Papa Bell.

JR: I’m still in awe that you read 100+ books in 2015. I average approximately 36 books/year and have tried to bump that up this year. Despite my best efforts, I’m still only on pace for around 50 books. Be honest, did you use PEDs to help your reading performance in 2015 (and don’t claim any TUE bullshit)?
Klaw: Caffeine!

Mike: Do you think this is the year Dominic Smith shows his power potential and what do you think of Rosario staying in the Florida State League?
Klaw: I expect more power from Smith now that he’s in a neutral environment, and the Mets do too. I imagine Rosario moves north in a month or so. He shouldn’t spend long in St. Lucie as I don’t think that park does him any favors either.

Vance: Yes there was bad weather with Trout, but that happens many years, so how do teams compensate for that?
Klaw: That year was exceptionally bad. I’ve certainly never seen a prospect lose as many games to weather as he did.

Mike: Do you buy that age questions regarding HS players ie. Rutherford turning 19 before the Draft?
Klaw: I think it’s a variable to consider, but not a reason to ignore a prospect with ability, nor is exceptional youth a reason to elevate a player. Delvin Perez will be 17.5 on draft day, but I rate him very highly because he probably has the best overall tools package in the draft (along with questions about his maturity).

Greg: With Rutherford being 19, does that ever equate to a guy moving faster through the minor leagues?
Klaw: If you think Rutherford is as advanced as a 19-year-old HS hitter should be, someone who’d be ready to go out to the Midwest League next year at about 20 and who would finish 2018 in double-A (so three levels total across two full seasons), then he’ll be right on schedule and you should just take him.

Jim: Keith, In New York we are going to a $15 minimum wage. can you help me understand how this is a good thing and not something that will hurt small businesses and change the service industry?
Klaw: “In recent years there have been important developments in the academic literature on the effect of increases in the minimum wage on employment, with the weight of evidence now showing that increases in the minimum wage have had little or no negative effect on the employment of minimum-wage workers, even during times of weakness in the labor market. Research suggests that a minimum-wage increase could have a small stimulative effect on the economy as low-wage workers spend their additional earnings, raising demand and job growth, and providing some help on the jobs front.” http://www.epi.org/minimum-wage-statement/

Threat Level Midnight: With my amateur scouting eye and 4 innings of watching him pitch, I feel like Stephenson lacks a putaway pitch. Was this a comment about him as a prospect?
Klaw: He’s not locating well today. The CB and change have both flashed plus in the minors, so I think the putaway pitch would be there if he had any command today. Of course this game just turned into a dumpster fire so who knows what happens next.

Michael Scarn: With a year of retrospect, what do you think the Athletics were thinking with the Butler contract?
Klaw: Didn’t get it then, don’t get it now.

Christian: Do you think teams should start to open facilities in Europe the same way they do in the DR and South America to both grow the game and get a chance at untapped talent that isn’t as scouted as often? Thank you again.
Klaw: MLB has facilities they run there, and I don’t think teams would try to compete on a macro level with MLB. The facilities are necessary in the DR because they house players who might be so poor that they don’t have enough to eat or a proper bed in which to sleep. That’s not necessary in most of Europe, although it could become appealing to do that in a place like Uganda, where baseball has started to catch on and we might start to see players sign pro contracts soon.

James: Do you think the Brewers would go arm or bat at #5? Thanks!
Klaw: Best player available.

Jon: What’s a good book to give to a 12 year old. Any literature that is accessible for that age?
Klaw: Depends on what kind of reader s/he is but the Harry Potter books would certainly work, as would Jasper Fforde’s Last Dragonslayer series and Diana Wynne Jones’ Howl’s Moving Castle series – all stuff I’ve read with my daughter.

Jay: Is there anyone in the Giants system that you would project as a #1/#2 type starter?
Klaw: No, but you could make an argument for Bickford, who will show that kind of fastball/slider. I don’t love the arm action and I know there were questions about his back and shoulder prior to the draft.

Adam: Best Slider? Harvey, Thor, Fernandez or Archer? I think thats the best 4 anyway
Klaw: Sale and Kershaw are standing on your porch right now and would like a word.

PhillyJake: Do you know of a team not drafting the best player available?
Klaw: Teams do it sometimes, but it’s less and less common because it never works out and often gets you fired.

Ridley Kemp: Who do you think has a chance to be MLB’s “Leicester City,” a totally out of the blue worst to first story? P.S. Yes, I am only asking this question to mention my beloved Foxes, why do you ask?
Klaw: Of the six last-place teams from last year, the only ones I could see reaching the playoffs would be the Tigers and Red Sox, and in Boston’s case, it wouldn’t be totally out of the blue at all.

Steve: If Seth Beer had stayed in HS, would he have gone 1.1 ?
Klaw: I don’t think so. He will be 19.75 on draft day this year and scouts didn’t see his hit tool the way they see Rutherford’s. But it turns out he’s pretty good at the whole hitting thing.

Will: Have you read Sam Hinkle’s 13 page resignation letter?
Klaw: Don’t know who that is. Sounds like you made the name up.

Christian: If you had to project, do you think expansion happens within the next ten years? I know their are a few markets that could support a team and baseball is always looking to make more money. Thank you again.
Klaw: Yes, for the reasons you outlined. But I don’t think MLB has any real desire or incentive to expand outside the US right now.

Marshall: The only reason I can see a team not drafting “BPA” is if they are targeting a player that is going to fall because of contract demands and want to use some of their salary allocation on him. But that scenario hasn’t seemed to happen in real world very frequently.
Klaw: That’s a good point that I really should have mentioned. Sometimes you will pass on BPA because he wants more than slot, and you can do better by taking the second (or maybe third) guy on your board and then getting an overslot guy later. I apologize for not putting that into my earlier answer because it has happened a couple of times.

Andy: Re: Relievers in the 1st round, you and I were more valuable major league players than Matt Anderson.
Klaw: I truly cannot see that ever happening again.

Tommy Moore: What are your thoughts on how showcases have become the main way for kids to be seen by colleges and scouts? Does the air it out for 2 innings mentality leaD to pitcher injuries, as some have speculated? Do pitchers not learn to handle adversity when no scores are kept and innings are usually rolled after 6 batters?
Klaw: There are benefits – much better competition is the main one – but yeah, air it out for an inning or two because you see 50 guns there certainly isn’t helping anyone’s health.

Goldenface: You said in your team projected standings article that the Angels have “one of the 10 best starters in the league”. Was this a misprint, or do you believe that Garrett Richards is one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball?
Klaw: In the league. Not in baseball. There are two leagues. Have been for a while now.

Scott: Do you think the US as a whole has gotten to the point where the majority of citizens are socially progressive? As disheartening as these BS “Religious Freedom” bills are, the immediate backlash to it is encouraging, and stronger than it would have been even 10 years ago.
Klaw: I think there’s a large geographic divide, where 2/3 of the country is looking at the other 1/3 like they’re crazy. (I know there are dissenters to these bills in the south and supporters in the north and west too.) I do think the backlash and the economic cost of legislated bigotry are going to change some laws even if they don’t change hearts and minds. And if you’re with a company looking to relocate jobs from North Carolina or Mississippi or any other hate-states, Delaware has low taxes and equal protection for LGBT people!

Grant: You said that the Cubs aren’t extremely well built for October, but that they have the assets to add another SP for the playoffs. Is Arrieta-Lester-Lackey really not a good enough playoff 1-3?
Klaw: You think lackey is better than I do, i infer.

Andy: Does anyone know if the Astros had Correa as BPA or if he was actually #2 or 3 on the board? I mean that was seen as a non-BPA pick at the time.
Klaw: Nah, I had him slightly behind Buxton, and I think I said at the time it was a matter of opinion. I believe they had both guys in their mix till the last few minutes, but that said, I know they were on Correa for a while.

Rob: Isn’t drafting the best available player only relevant in the first half of the first round. Is there much difference between the 19th and 20th picks, so if one is a pitcher and one is a position player and a team needs to stock up on pitching, won’t they go for the pitcher?
Klaw: No, that’s a terrible strategy. If you think the pitcher is better, sure, take him, but if you think the hitter is better, don’t take the pitcher because you think you need pitching more. The biggest problem with doing that is that predicting what you’ll need 3-5 years down the road is really hard.

Ryan: I hated the Cubs trade for Matt Garza at the time, it was more about a GM trying not to get fired instead of improving the overall health of the system. In retrospect it looks terrible now, Archer is a bonafide ace and the Cubs ended up getting three releivers for him. Why do GMs make trades that even normal fans know will not work out?
Klaw: Imagine how much worse it would look if Hak-Ju Lee hadn’t blown out his ankle and had become at least some kind of big leaguer.

Joe: How much does the AJ Pollock injury hurt the Dbacks going forward this year? Its hard for me to believe that they have depth to make the postseason unless a bunch of unexpected players break out this season.
Klaw: I would guess it costs them three wins if not more in the standings. Brutal timing for a brutal loss.

Klaw: Anyway, that’s all for this week. Thank you all for reading, for your questions here, and for watching the game last night. I should be back Wednesday or Thursday next week to do this again. Look for me on ESPNU tonight around 7:15 pm ET talking draft stuff on College Baseball Live.

Klaw: The Klawchat that should not be.

Mike: What do you honestly think of Sam Travis? I’ve heard very different comparisons. So really do not know what to think.
Klaw: I’m a fan: He can hit, and he has average power, probably a slew of doubles and 12-18 homers when he’s at his peak. It’s not explosive like Schwarber, but it’s more mechanically clean and simple. I’ve heard some comparisons too and most of them are dumb, which is another reason why I dislike player comps (yet, circularly speaking, also a reflection of that previously held belief on my part).

JR: Hopefully you went pee before this chat; wouldn’t want you to hold it in the entire time. I hear that can cause health issues.
Klaw: I did! I did! In the toilet, too!

Dave: Thoughts on Amed Rosario supposedly starting in St Lucie again?
Klaw: Not a fan, although I haven’t heard the reasoning.

Nate: Keith, do you think the QO will be completely eliminated in the next CBA?
Klaw: Doubt it. owners cling to it as a drag on free agent salaries (how’s that workin out for ya, fellas).

Craig: With Houston and Texas both acquiring catchers this spring, is there a market left for Lucroy?
Klaw: I’d argue there’s never a lack of a market for a top-end catcher. Demand always outstrips supply.

Mike (DC): Thoughts on Vince Velasquez — can he hold up as a starter and how high is the ceiling?
Klaw: Hasn’t held up for a full season yet. Above-average starter ceiling.

Brian: Keith, You saw Anderson Espinosa this week. Is he really as good as the hype?
Klaw: Mostly. He doesn’t look 18 in delivery, feel, body. It’s a ridiculous fastball at the top end of its range and he showed he could spin a plus breaking ball. I didn’t see the great changeup and he had the command of an 18-year-old. But still, how often does a high school senior look like this? Once every other year?

Mario: How do you rate Matt Chapman, a fringe player, a soild regular, or the potential to be more?
Klaw: Solid regular.

James: Have a friend whose girlfriend just told him that she has anxiety and been on meds for awhile. Is there a website or something he can read to better understand what she is going through?
Klaw: I’ve written a bit about having it, including this and this. I know Kat Kinsman has a book (Hi, Anxiety) on it coming out in April or May too.

Aaron: ESPN apparently projects only one MLB team to win 90 games this season. Seem odd to you?
Klaw: This is a common problem of projection systems, most of which rely on simulating the season a huge number of times. Those sims will give you the average results for each team, which are flattened out by the huge number of samples. Real life produces outliers.

Nick: Do you think Nicasio will end up as a viable starter for the Pirates?
Klaw: I’d still call it an upset. I think there’s value in the arm, somewhere, although based on his history I’d say in relief. What his March performance showed us is that he might be a decent major-league pitcher again. I don’t see how you can extrapolate from those few innings, ignore his entire history, and say he’s going to be great (which you did not do in your question anyway).

Alan: I finally got around to listening to your top 100 songs for 2015. It’s a great list of a lot of music I otherwise would not have been exposed to. Here’s my beef, whenever I talk to people, they’re like “man, that song is old”. Any thoughts on some more real time music updates?
Klaw: I do one every month. Also, who says a song from 2015 is “old?”

John: I am a student at GW. For our annual spring event, the program board got Action Bronson to perform. Some students protested in response to this due to his 2011 song “consensual rape” and the program board decided to remove him. He was supposed to perform saturday. I wanted your thoughts on “safe spaces” at universities and the fact that you could pick out misogynistic lyrics from almost any big-name rapper. Did the school make a mistake in listening to a vocal minority of students who didn’t want him to perform?
Klaw: I’m not clear on why a college campus needs a rapper (or any music artist) to perform. Aren’t you there for education? You can certainly go somewhere else to see live music performed.

Steve: With all of the problems finding starters in Cincinnati, why have they given up on Cingrani? They are going to lose anyway, why not let him start and see if he can make it work?
Klaw: I’m assuming it’s because he couldn’t throw strikes last year.

Brian: Do you talk about baseball over here at The Dish?
Klaw: Only in chats. Otherwise it’s all non-baseball stuff: books, cooking, restaurants, music, boardgames, Top Chef, movies.

Joe: Trevor Bauer lost spot in Indians rotation to Josh Tomlin, Cody Anderson. Can he be dynamic out of a bullpen?
Klaw: He can be effective in the bullpen if he throws strikes … but if he threw strikes, he’d be effective in the rotation too. I think this is a good move to try to hit the reset button with him a little since they already have other starter options, but I’m also figuring Bauer ends up making 20 starts this year when, say, Josh Tomlin turns back into a pumpkin.

Matt: Which Sox prospect has the higher ceiling, Benentedi or Devers?
Klaw: Devers.

Joe: Jays make the right choice in going with Sanchez?
Klaw: I don’t think so.

Sean: Do you have a World Series prediction for the 2016 season?
Klaw: My entire predictions column goes up Saturday.

Zach: Do you think Wil Myers could have a breakout year in ’16?
Klaw: You should read my column of 2016 breakout player picks.

Paul: Not sure I’ve ever seen you use the word ‘disgusting’ to describe a pitch until I read the Michael Fulmer piece. That isn’t really a question, and I have no rooting interest in the Tigers, but it got me pretty excited to watch him when I get the chance. #fyeahbaseball
Klaw: I have to admit that I heard another Tigers’ pitcher say that, and liked it enough to … uh … borrow it.

Corey: Before his move off of 3rd base in the minors, was Travis Shaw anything special there? Think he’ll produce enough to hold the spot for the whole season?
Klaw: I’ve never seen him play it, but given his body type and what I’ve seen at first, I doubt it’ll be good enough.

Jeff: Will you be eating at any of Paul Qui’s restaurants in the future? I ask because you have a very correct and hard stance against violence towards women.
Klaw: I can tell you no, but it’s hardly a boycott when there’s no chance I’ll be in Austin any time soon.

Eric: Have you read The Road to Serfdom by F.A. Hayek?
Klaw: No. Is it about high school football and basketball players going to NCAA division 1 schools?

Bill S: What is your opinion of John Gant? Do you think the Braves should test him out as the fifth starter to begin the season until Folty is ready?
Klaw: Fifth starter if that. Would prefer to see Aaron Blair in that spot.

Foz: I usually appreciate hearing your views on certain things outside of baseball, that said, do you have any thoughts on the Lakers situation involving Young and Russell?
Klaw: I have no idea what you’re talking about.

Paul: I saw your brief writeup about the Twins leaving Berrios in the minor leagues. Can you expand further on why the fuck they decided to do this? I feel like at some point it has to be discouraging for a player like Berrios, who worked so hard to force the Twins’ hand, still ends up a victim to the 2 month later callup.
Klaw: It’s not entirely the Twins’ fault – the CBA gives teams incentive to do this. Aaron Gleeman also pointed out that they bounced Duffey, a fringe prospect who was way better than expected in two months last year with the Twins, in favor of Nolasco’s dead contract.

Keith: What’s the outlook on Profar offensively? If you had to guess, do you think he’ll still be a star?
Klaw: I do. I hope he destroys AAA and forces a callup.

Mike: How would you compare the overall package Thor has (especially now with the deadly 2 seamer and slider he’s added simce coming up) to the overall arsenal of Lucas Giolito?
Klaw: Thor’s is more advanced now, but Giolito’s stuff has been better at the same age every year since each emerged as prospects.

Jonathan Orr: Who will have the better season, Grichuk or Piscotty?
Klaw: Bigger fan of Piscotty’s swing and approach. Grichuk will probably hit more HR, though.

Nik: Based on your team rankings, you don’t think Andrew Knapp can hit enough as a regular. Yet you praised his pick when he was drafted and he tore it out last season in AA. Do you think that was just a mirage?
Klaw: Yes, I don’t think he’s going to hit like that against better pitching. I praised the pick as a high-floor catcher, which he his. He will play in the majors for sure, probably for a lot of years.

Danny: What did you think of Gabe Encinas? Is he strictly RP?
Klaw: I had him wrong yesterday – the HR by Kang was off Herrera, not Encinas. Encinas was more 93-94 with a decent slider, but I didn’t see a long enough outing to say starter or reliever. (Well, I could say “reliever,” because that’s always the easy answer.)

Xenophanes: Do you think it is appropriate for the Rays and MLB to allow Andrew Bellotti to perform in the majors, given that he killed a man several years ago?
Klaw: That’s a pretty shady – and shitty – way to phrase it. Bellatti was goofing off behind the wheel, driving 80 mph and eventually crossing into oncoming traffic, when his car hit another, which killed the other car’s 50-year-old driver. He was sentenced to 8 months in jail and 5 years probation, which seems incredibly light to me. But “he killed a man” would give most people the impression that he murdered someone.

EC: What do Nats have to do to overtake Mets? Is it as easy as bringing up Giolito and Turner and letting them play?
Klaw: Fire their manager?

AJ: RE Rosario, mets say he will move to Binghampton when weather warms up
Klaw: He’s going to have to learn to play in the cold at some point.

Tim: With the (relative) failures to shine of Yasmany Tomas and Rusney Castillo – has the Cuban FA wave finally crested? Those deals look like potential albatrosses (at least in Castillo’s case). OR is this another example of the risk teams are willing to take on unproven foreign talent?
Klaw: Don’t think it has crested, so much as the pool has thinned. There will still be stars (I am very high on the Dodgers’ Yusnier Diaz), but there will be more misses, and teams will keep spending on these players because the payoff is still high.

addoeh: Will you be broadcasting more from MLB games now, like you did Monday?
Klaw: I was told I’ll be on at least four games this season, coming on for a few innings to discussing scouting-related topics. The first is April 6th, Phils at Reds, two teams that are focused on the future, meaning I’ll talk prospects.

Arin: Is there any reason why Jose Peraza should make the opening day roster for the Reds? It makes no sense turning him into a super sub, right?
Klaw: I would not do this. He didn’t hit in AAA last year, so send him back there and let him try to make some adjustments.

Paul: Hi Keith – how painful is it for you to actually watch college games when scouting players? Between the 1950’s strategies (bunting at crazy moments, …), the 25 high-fives every minutes, the boy scout athmosphere where players are treated like they are 12, the slow rythm (catcher and hitter waiting for instructions every pitch), it is kind of a torture to me even if I enjoy college sports in general and I love baseball.
Klaw: I do not enjoy that style of sport. I’m a fan of players, but not of college baseball. It’s so poorly managed that it doesn’t sufficiently resemble the sport I love.

Mike: Keith … If not Groome at 1.1, then who do the Phillies settle for ?
Klaw: Your mistake is saying “settle.” Why would you assume Groome is the top prospect when so many folks, myself included, believe that this class lacks a clear 1-1 guy? I’d take Corey Ray there right now, although I think Blake Rutherford, Delvin Perez, and perhaps even Braxton Garrett could make cases to go that high.

Joe: I was glad Tyler Naquin made Cleveland’s roster. Why do so many teams try to seem low upside retread veterans rather than just going with a young guy? Especially if the young guy can field his position well?
Klaw: Obsession with service time? Naquin isn’t 20. By the time he’s ready for free agency, his peak years will probably be behind him.

Scott: What is that picture on your twitter profile? (Not the pie)
Klaw: The background? A painting by the Swiss-German surrealist Paul Klee, titled The Twittering Machine.

Danny: Do you think Domingo Acevedo can stick as a starter? How does his pitching mix compare to Severino at similar points in the minors?
Klaw: I don’t think there is any chance at all he can be a starter. He has one pitch and a high-effort delivery that will inhibit his command.

Jeremy: What’s your take on the 538 article investigating the home run spike at the end of last season? Why did scoring go up?
Klaw: Unless the ball changed there’s no tangible reason to think this was anything more than a fluke.

Nathan: Would a hypothetical offer of Devers, Benintendi and Brian Johnson be enough to entice the A’s to trade Sonny Gray?
Klaw: I’d have to think the A’s would jump through their computer screens to take that offer.

Mike: Are you in the side that thinks the Dodgers still compete for a World Series or the side where they lost Greinke so they are destined to be horrible?
Klaw: Still competing, but flawed.

DO: I’m 3/4 of the way through Station 11. Not typically my kind of book, but it is exceptionally well written. Read it if you haven’t.
Klaw: I just read it last month (and wrote it up here, something I’ve been slacking on lately). It is indeed wonderful.

Chris: Do you see Nick Banks being taken in the first round this June or have several others passed him by now?
Klaw: He’s slipped. Reports are that he’s gotten stiff and people are questioning the hit tool, which was his best attribute.

Ian: Outside of just wanting him to be a good player, do you think that if Max Kepler was really good, it might increase baseball interest in Europe?
Klaw: I do, so I’m hoping he comes out strong. Then I can get that scouting trip to Berlin in 2021!

addoeh: I think I know the answer, but Beatles or Stones?
Klaw: Beatles. Not even a huge fan of their stuff, but they had better peak stuff and their catalog as a whole is much more interesting to me.

Scott: Do you imagine a scenario in which society as a whole is able to actually take significant steps to mitigate climate change, or are we too far gone at this point?
Klaw: We will, when the threat becomes more real to more people, by which point it might be too late.

Andy: Re The Rolling Stones. I bet I could make a 20 song greatest hits CD that would encompass almost everyone’s favorite song, as well as be interesting to listen to musically. 20 songs in a 50 year career. I don’t know if that’s a good thing or not, but they certainly don’t belong in any list of greatest groups of all time.
Klaw: I knew when I tweeted that list of hot takes that it would get a lot of negative reactions, but it was in keeping with my tweet right before it about my dislike of Springsteen. But the lack of objectivity in responses surprised me: People confuse what they love with attempts to speak in an objective fashion about music (or film or art). If you prefer listening to the Stones, by all means, do so. But if you want to argue that they crafted more complex music, more technically demanding music, or more intelligent lyrics, well, best of luck.

Chris: With your recent positive viewing of Beau Burrows, would you add him in your top 100?
Klaw: No. I wouldn’t change the top 100 based on a few spring innings.

Jack: Puk and Hansen haven’t shown anything to make me think the Phillies would consider them at 1.1 . You’ve previously stated they won’t pick a HS pitcher. Who then ?
Klaw: I answered this above but will say you’re right about those two guys.

Chris: Is Nick Senzel the top college bat this year, and do you see him going top 3?
Klaw: No he’s not, and it’s possible but I would not say it’s likely.

Matt: Hey Keith, when is the earliest we see AJ Reed? Thanks for putting him on my radar last year.
Klaw: June 1st ish?

EC: Any logic to giving Osuna the closer role over Storen? Storen a FA next year, and Osuna could get $$ in arb for the saves.
Klaw: I wouldn’t get too worked up about it. Maybe 50/50 chance they end up switching roles at some point.

Aaron: The Rangers’ Matt Bush “second-chance” experiment has generated some fan heat in DFW. What’s your opinion?
Klaw: He served his time and has gotten treatment for his addiction. If they’re willing to cut bait after any violation, then I’m fine with it. I’d feel differently if he’d been convicted of rape or domestic abuse, because I don’t think those are behaviors that go away. (I read a piece just this morning on how paraphilias such as the need for coercion during sex are immutable.)

Bill: o Arica, T Turner or Story long term, bat only?
Klaw: Arcia.

EC: Why doesn’t MLBPA file a grievance against Yankees/Marlins for the beard policy? I remember a few years back Nats tried to do it too… didn’t last long.
Klaw: Nobody has cared enough. If Giancarlo Stanton or Jose Fernandez wants to grow a beard, the policy will quietly disappear.

Andrew: Thoughts on Orioles handling of Kim? Poor initial talent evaluation or not enough AB’s to make a judgement? Or both?
Klaw: If you’ll permit me to post some totally baseless speculation on my part: I think the O’s front office, scouting and/or analytics, liked him and signed him, but then Buck got a look at him in spring training and said “I can’t use this guy.” Totally, absolutely, one hundred percent a guess on my part. No matter what the reason, however, leaking that shit to the press was wrong. Don’t embarrass the player; you’d never do that to a US-born guy.

Andy: 30 games for Jose Reyes is the baseline, based on the Chapman suspension right? From reading about it, Reyes seems more serious, with more witnesses, as well as slightly less ambiguity.
Klaw: Gotta be. Hoping for more.

Shaheen: Any chance Moniak goes top-5?
Klaw: I really like him, but even that might be a stretch in the eyes of the teams drafting there.

David: What are your predictions for Byron Buxton this season? Is .260 / 15 HR / 40 SB reasonable?
Klaw: If he does that with some walks and plus-plus defense I’d call it a huge win for everyone.

John: Better Rule-5 selection from the Rays system: Joey Rickhard or Tyler Goeddel? Think either could supply league average corner OF offense?
Klaw: Goeddel. He might. I don’t get the Rickard fascinating. Good makeup, limited tools.

John: What is Profar’s ultimate position?
Klaw: Shortstop.

donny: draft on saturday, completely stuck on who to go with, swanson or benentendi. whatever name you type is the guy im going with.
Klaw: I just don’t know fantasy well at all. I’m guessing Benintendi will be better for that because defense usually doesn’t matter.

NG: Keith – As someone who has been open with mental illness issues in the past, I’m wondering if you could provide any guidance. My brother has long lived a life of relative luxury compared to myself and has never had to make any sacrifices. He was recently diagnosed with moderately severe mental illness (mild bipolar, narcissistic personality disorder, a few other things), and it’s caused a lot of resentment as the doctors are recommending a treatment plan that does not force him to change his privileged lifestyle, as any severe disruptions could make the issues worse. How can I, as someone who works a menial 40 hour a week job to fund my own business without any help, manage my emotions and resentment towards a family member who receives resources and assistance with their life that I do not receive?
Klaw: This has to be something you work out with a psychotherapist. I’m certainly not qualified (nor do I want to pretend to understand what issues you might have had with your brother earlier in life), but I very strongly recommend finding a good talk therapist to try to work on it. You may learn things about yourself that help you become a better person. I know therapy did this for me.

Mike: Trayce Thompson…4A player, 4th OF or solid regular?
Klaw: Chance for a solid regular. Chance he’s just a 4th. Better than 4A.

John: My brother’s fav place to eat is red robin and my parents is Olive Garden, should I change my last name?
Klaw: Did you grow up in the parking lot of a mall?

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: You think firing the manager on the cusp of the season is what the Nats need? How about an honest answer?
Klaw: What the hell can they do now? They made their bed with the roster, the manager, and the coaches. They can’t go out and make the big trade or signing they might have needed.

DOS: Can you give us any insight as to why ESPN.com has almost completely abandoned the live chat format? Was a big reason that I subscribed to insider.
Klaw: The chats weren’t Insider.

Pig Bodine: BA mock draft has Riley Pint to Braves….would he be best player available at #3, or do you think they go college bat like Ray if available?
Klaw: I don’t do mocks this early for this very reason – you can’t base it on any actual insight on teams and preferences. I don’t think there’s any chance they take a very high-risk high school arm at 3, for example.

Matt: I know you firmly believe the Phillies won’t take groome at one, but why? I’ve seen plenty of credible people post mock drafts saying it will happen. Why is your opinion so strong that they won’t ?
Klaw: Because I base my opinions on industry gossip and knowledge of team strategies and preferences. This is why I wait to do mocks – until then, most of what I know is negative (“We won’t take Joey Bagodonuts there, no shot”) and not enough is positive.

Jon from the Rock: Keith, Now that Tyler White has made the team what can we expect from him? Is a Billy Butler or Kevin Youklis comp fair for him?
Klaw: I wouldn’t go with either of those. White can really hit, doesn’t have much power, will walk an adequate amount but I don’t think at Youkilis levels.

Ridley Kemp: Loved your sci-fi podcast a couple of weeks back. I’m reading Left Hand of Darkness now and loving it. Are you going to be a Hugo voter this year, and do you have any strong feelings about the slate issues last year?
Klaw: Can anyone vote? I haven’t read enough 2015 releases to have an opinion, though. I’ll start The Forever War in the next two weeks, I think. Just finished The Magicians’ Land last week, then a math book called the Unfinished Game by Keith Devlin, and am now reading James Alan McPherson’s Elbow Room (Pulitzer Winner 1979).

Jimmy: Follow up to question about Profar – he seems like a prime trade candidate if he can play the field every day? (i.e., can’t see him taking the SS job over Andrus or Desmond)
Klaw: What if Andrus doesn’t hit this year? At some point, don’t they have to get more production from that spot?

Cav: Have you ever read anything by Dr. Paul Offit? He has been an early and leading spokesperson debunking the autism-vaccine arguments and delves into other science vs. myth subjects. I think you would like his work.
Klaw: Yes, he’s one of the most important figures in American science and public health.

G: Thoughts on Alex Kiriloff for the draft? Seems some local papers in Pittsburgh are hoping he is the Pirates pick this year. Is he a reach around the back of the 1st round?
Klaw: I think he’s a back of the first round guy. Supposed to see him play down here tomorrow, which beats the five-hour drive to Pittsburgh.

Jimmy in Chicago: Hi Keith – I read a scout said Matt Davidson has shortened his swing and looks salvageable. Did you see him at all? Or hear anything along those lines?
Klaw: I’ve actually heard that too, and heard that last year he was mentally shot, but all of that doesn’t add up to anything to me until he starts hitting in games.

Michele: Is Nolan Arenado as good as he looked last year? At the risk of sounding simple, how did he get this good?
Klaw: I’d love to know how he went from being a 45 defender at third to maybe (probably?) an 80 defender there in the span of less than a year. Ask any scout who saw him in the AFL a few years ago – we were talking about the likelihood he’d need another position. That sounds totally ridiculous now.

JR: Have you read Magicians book 3 yet? I really enjoyed the trilogy and am enjoying the TV series so far.
Klaw: Finished last week. Loved reading it but the ending felt a bit victory lappish.

Darren: I see most projections for Ellsbury have him getting over 600 at bats. If you could what would you bet on the under?
Klaw: A year’s salary? Not only do I think he’ll get hurt, is he even good enough to get those at bats with Gardner and Hicks on the roster?

John: This Smoak could take another step forward this year? maybe post closer to league-average OBP in his current platoon role?
Klaw: Any improvement will be marginal. He was never the hitter in the majors that I thought he’d be. It really seemed like he got less strong once he reached the big leagues.

JR: I’m still shocked by how much AZ gave up for Shelby Miller, such an overpay. To help give me some context, if AZ had made the same trade for Matt Harvey, would you still have considered it an overpay given all they gave up?
Klaw: Probably not.

Ray A.: Is Giants Prospect Sam Coonrod more of a bullpen pitcher or will he stick as a starter? His stuff looks nasty, but I can’t tell if it’s starter or reliever-type stuff.
Klaw: Couldn’t find a scout who thought he’d start.

Mike: Is this the year Puig puts it all together and becomes a MVP candidate or is it time to lower expectations?
Klaw: I think he’ll be better than 2015 but not quite at 2013-14 levels. His exclusion from the BBTN 100 was total nonsense.

James: What is your favorite mlb ballpark to eat at and I mean food from the actual ballpark.
Klaw: Target Field and Citi Field both have great local options.

Craig: Could a guy like Groome fall to Milwaukee at 4? And given their long-term rebuilding project — where a lot of the talent is at levels below AA — would they consider a high-risk HS arm?
Klaw: Brewers pick 5th. I don’t think Groome gets out of the top 5. He could easily go 2. I kind of doubt the Rockies pass on him at 4.

Tom: Based on your subtly inspired intro, my own hot take (as a big fan) is Master of Puppets (closely followed by Seek and Destroy) is the most annoying, overrated core Metallica song.
Klaw: Oh man, I love that song, especially the severe tempo change mid-track. The riff behind “Obey your master” is one of my two or three favorite Metallica licks ever. The opening riff of “Blackened,” with the same series of notes played with just slightly altered tempos, is still my favorite.

Joe: Just playing devil’s advocate…after the toxic environment the Nationals seemed to have last year where their manager would sometimes passive aggressively call out the best player in the league, I wonder if having Dusty might actually work for them for a while. Yeah, he’s terrible strategically and has a history of abusing arms (more with the Cubs and Giants than Reds). But the players have loved him anywhere he has gone. The Nationals seem to be the type of team who might benefit from him because their raw talent can outplay his weaknesses, and his strengths are really a positive change.
Klaw: Everything you said is reasonable, although I think Reds players didn’t love him the way the Giants and Cubs did. My bigger concern is that his idea of how to run an offense is totally outdated. He was less abusive of arms in Cincinnati than in Chicago, and he doesn’t have young arms to wear out right now anyway.

Chris: Have you heard anything about Hunter Harvey this spring and how he’s recovered from missing so much time?
Klaw: Just strained his groin. He might want to sacrifice an oriole to the baseball gods.

Wade: What’s your policy on tipping when ordering food to go or at places that do not have continued service through your meal (i.e, pickup window/food truck)? $1 per item ordered?
Klaw: I might throw $1 in, but at those places the staff have to be paid at least minimum wage, whereas at table-service places where tips are the servers’ income, I never tip below 20% (you’d basically have to swear at me for hating your team to get me to tip 15%).

Bobby: What position is Sano playing 3 years from now?
Klaw: First base, DH, or Sanochatter.

Klaw: That’s all for this week – thanks for the questions and bearing with my terrible schedule. I should be back to a normal routine next week.