Get Out.

Get Out (amazoniTunes) remains one of the top-reviewed movies of the year seven months after its initial release, despite multiple factors working against it: It’s a horror film, it was released in a dead spot in the calendar, and it was written and directed by an African-American man. The film has been a critical and commercial success, and is now the highest-grossing movie with an African-American director, along with a hilarious 99% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. (And even that might be misleading; one of the two “negative” reviews is a 3/5 rating from a non-professional critic, while the other is noted gadfly Armand White.)

I’ve said several times here that I avoid most entries in the horror genre, almost entirely out of a dislike of graphic violence. The modern trend of “torture porn” and body horror may have its audience – sociopaths and prospective serial killers, I assume – but I am not of it. The handful of horror movies I’ve seen and liked have been psychological or gothic horror films; I often cite The Others as one of my favorites, because it’s creepy as hell, wonderfully acted, and free of violence.

Get Out does have some blood and a not insignificant body count, but it is very much a psychological horror movie, and even takes pains to keep the worst of the violence off-screen. The horror within the movie preys on our fear of mortality, our questions about identity, and racial guilt and animus, but not outright violence. There are unoriginal elements within the film, and one horror-movie cliché so pervasive I caught it despite limited experience with the genre, but the script as a whole is tight, unified, and clever, tackling subtle racism with a story that starts out equally subtle before it explodes into a paranoid and utterly bonkers physical manifestation of the problem.

Chris Washington (Daniel Kaluuya) and Rose Armitage (Alison Williams) have been dating four months and are about to head to her family’s estate so he can meet her parents. He expresses reservations because she hasn’t told her parents that her boyfriend is black, but she assures him that they’re progressive, open-minded people who would have voted for Obama for a third term if they could have (a phrase her father, played by Bradley Whitford, repeats almost verbatim). When they do arrive there, Chris notices that the family employs a few black servants who speak and move with a strangely flat affect, while Rose’s mother (Catherine Keener) appears hellbent on hypnotizing Chris to cure him of his smoking habit. She later manages to do this, seemingly without his knowledge, in the middle of his first night there.

When the family hosts a big garden party the next day, the various older white guests make all manner of peculiar, racial (but not always overtly racist) comments towards Chris, while the one black guest, a young man named Logan who arrives with a much older white woman, is ‘off’ the way the servants are, and completely loses his composure when Chris takes his picture, as the flash triggers a total change in his demeanor and he attacks Chris while growling at him “get out!” Chris sends the picture to his friend Rod (Lil Rel Howery), who is a combination of Smart Brother and Conspiracy Brother, and Rod informs him that Logan is actually Andre, who had gone missing from their neighborhood six months earlier. After that, the movie largely confirms that everything that looked amiss is very much so, and then some, with a quick transition from psychological suspense to outright horror that works because the story is so tightly written up to that point.

The script works as a straight story, with a few jump scares along the way, but succeeds more by taking the stereotype of the “post-racial” white progressive and turning it inside out, using metaphor to expose such people as fakes or flakes – people who don’t really believe what they spout, or who simply fail to back up what they say when real action is required. Rod is the most dependable person in Chris’s life, and is essential to Chris’ hopes of escape at the end of the film, while one by one the “nice” white people Chris has met end up betraying him. You could even take Peele’s example of Logan/Andre as a warning about assimilation, about losing one’s identity and culture in an effort to fit into “American” culture and society by conforming to white norms and standards.

The remainder of this review contains possible spoilers.

The escape sequence of Get Out is taut and surprisingly focused on Chris’s psychological state, and has him relying on his mental skills at least as much as his physical to try to get himself out of the house. The one cliché I mentioned earlier appears here – the person who was pretty definitely dead suddenly appearing, not dead, and at full strength, despite (in this case) suffering a rather traumatic head injury – as if Peele needed one more person for Chris to fight before he could get out of the building. That same scene ends with an off-screen death that recalled Chris Partlow’s murder of Bug’s father near the end of The Wire season 4, but with all of the violence here left off screen, whereas the HBO series made the killing more visible and graphic. Even when Chris does one of the dumb things that the protagonists in horror films do, a choice involving Georgina, it’s at least well-founded in his character’s history and further explained through flashbacks at the moment of the decision (which turns out to be the wrong one, of course).

The core conceit of the film also struck me as a direct allusion to (or lift from) Being John Malkovich, which made the casting of Keener, who earned a Best Supporting Actress nomination for her work in the earlier film. BJM is more of a clever idea than a fully-realized film, like a short story that couldn’t bear the weight of two hours of plot, while Get Out turns the story over and makes the Malkovich analogue the center of the film, while actually finishing the story off properly. So while the central gimmick is not original, Peele manages to do in his first produced script to what Charlie Kaufman (who wrote BJM) didn’t do until his third, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, which won Kaufman the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay. The idea at the heart of Get Out may not have been Peele’s, but he turned it into a complete work with a clear resolution.

Peele has also spoken since the film was released about alternate endings he’d considered, one of which he filmed and most of which were darker than the one we get on screen, but I’ll stand up for the script as it was actually filmed. The film asks whether black Americans can depend on whites at all to help them achieve or move towards equality, and answers it with an unequivocal ‘no.’ The ending we get at least implies that black Americans can reach those goals, but only by helping themselves, and doing so in rather heroic fashion, relying on their wits more than they do the stereotyped physical qualities that the Armitages and their ilk ascribe to African-Americans.

After hearing multiple warnings about the nature of the end of the film, I thought Get Out chose the high road in presenting a horror-film sequence with more emphasis on what’s happening in Chris’s head than what’s happening to all the bodies, including his, and I enjoyed the movie far more than I expected. The film is also boosted by some strong performances, especially Kaluuya (born in England, but nailing the American accent), Williams, Keener, and especially Howery, whose role is largely comic but absolutely fills up the screen whenever he appears and delivers by far the movie’s funniest line near its end.

I imagine, given the critical acclaim for the film and the criticism of the 2014 and 2015 Oscar nominee slates for the lack of persons of color among major nominees, that this film will be the rare horror movie to find itself with an Academy Award nomination, perhaps for Best Original Screenplay, and likely a Best Original Score nod for Michael Abels. As far as I can tell, The Exorcist is the only straight horror movie to earn a Best Picture nod – even Rosemary’s Baby didn’t get one – so there’s an outside chance we’ll see some history made if Get Out does the same. It would be an incredible outcome for a movie that had so many factors working against it before its release.

Stick to baseball, 9/30/17.

My one ESPN column this week is a free one, covering my awards picks for 2017, excluding NL Rookie of the Year, the ballot I was assigned (again). I also held a Klawchat on Friday.

I reviewed Azul, one of my favorite new boardgames of the year, for Paste, which will be my last review for them until November. I will continue to post reviews here in the interim.

My book, Smart Baseball, is out and still selling well (or so I’m told); thanks to all of you who’ve already picked up a copy. And please sign up for my free email newsletter, which is back to more or less weekly at this point now that I’m not traveling for a bit. I also have a new book signing to announce: October 14th at Changing Hands in Phoenix.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 9/29/17.

My post on the five BBWAA award ballots I don’t have went up yesterday on ESPN.com, and my latest boardgame review, the excellent light strategy game Azul, went up on Paste yesterday as well.

Keith Law: There’s a madness in us all. Klawchat.

Sean: So Jeimer Candelario can really hit huh? Is there going to be power coming or more of a high AVG/OBP kinda guy?
Keith Law: I think it’s doubles power, not a ton of BB, won’t K much. Cubs people loved his bat from when he was just a teenager; he just didn’t move up as quick as expected but it’s working out in the end.

Kyle: Could a team with corporate ownership like Toronto or Atlanta sign Otani and then a different division of the corporation sign him to a massive “marketing deal” as a way to get around the compensation rules?
Keith Law: I think MLB would challenge that. All the more reason for Manfred to waive the rule for Otani and make him a true FA.

Brandon: Brett Phillips hitting a little to end the year. 4th OF because he can play CF or potential for more of a regular role?
Keith Law: Has everyday upside. Depends on contact rate. I think he’s more of a plus RF in the long term; arm plays up there, not sure he has the range for CF every day.

Jon: Correct decision to shut down Giolito a little early right? Around 50 IP more (in game situations) than last year, was very good in his time in the bigs and doesn’t really have anything more to prove this season still coming off the surgery. Projection still as a future ace?
Keith Law: No problem with having him skip his last two starts; if he met their developmental goals this year, which I think he did, then let him go out on a high note. He threw far more strikes this year in the majors, missed more bats, showed a better CH, and got back close to his old delivery. He’s also added a slider, which is key because his curveball wasn’t as good in the majors as it had been when he was in low-A or high-A. I’d be more comfortable saying #2 ceiling. To get to ace, he’ll need the CB to be as sharp and effective as it was a few years ago, or for the slider to become that pitch.

Nelson: If you read a book then dont remember if you read it a year or two later, what do you gain by reading it? Just temporary enjoyment while reading?
Im asking because I have a horrible memory and could probably reread a book 6 months later and it be new to me so sometimes I questions the point of reading at all
Keith Law: For the enjoyment of reading in the moment. If a book takes me away for an hour or two, and then I forget it six months later – which is true of a lot of genre fiction – then I’m content.

Bruce: Do you belive in any specific “conspiracy therories”? (belief contrary to official authority position)
Keith Law: I believe the ball was juiced in 1987.

Evan: Reasonable for Mitch Keller to taste the bigs next year or is that a little aggressive? Figure he starts back in Altoona and a midseason promotion to Indy if he performs well? Was unhittable in the EL playoffs.
Keith Law: I think he debuts next year, late.

Tadd: Billy McKinney remembered how to hit this season. That pure swing hasn’t really changed. His outlook any different than from before the season? 4th OF type?
Keith Law: Still a bit too much swing and miss for a low-power corner OF, but before the year I was afraid he’d never see the majors, and now he’s clearly a major league bench guy.

Mike: Do you think popularity of games such as Monopoly and Chutes and Ladders is because of price? I know I had sticker shock over the $30-$50 price of games like Settlers and Ticket to Ride.
Keith Law: Price and ubiquity. For years, B&N was the only mass market retailer to sell Eurogames. Now Target has moved aggressively into the segment. The price is surprising to newbies, absolutely, but I think many of them justify it by how often you want to replay them. Look at your hours of use vs the cost and it makes more sense.

Jeff: What in the world can the Pirates do with Glasnow? So dominant in minors, including walk rate his last stint, to can’t throw strikes to anyone in the majors. Still let him throw as a starter? Or are we going to see him showcase a little more in the pen? He’s 24 now, not the young guy we all think of him as.
Keith Law: Has to pitch somewhere to continue to get reps; if they can designate him as a long reliever next year, handling mopup and other low leverage work where he might throw 3-5 innings, that might be the bridge he needs – as if there were a AAAA level for him.

Andy: What do the Brewers do for next season? They need more good starting pitching, but so does everyone else. They’re unlikely to try to upgrade from Thames, even if that might be warranted. Hope the young guys develop more?
Keith Law: Pray Nelson gets back to pre-surgery form. Burnes should arrive soon. I still think Lopez will develop into a ML starter. I would definitely look to upgrade from Thames, even if it’s with internal options, but otherwise they’re largely waiting on the talent in the system to progress.

Joe: As Stanton gets closer to 61 homers, there seems to be this unspoken, collective agreement that if he can get to 62 he will break the “record.” Did I miss the memo where we all decided that McGwire, Sosa, and Bonds never happened?
Keith Law: Collective my ass. If you see anyone make that claim, mock them mercilessly. It’s historical revisionism: You don’t like what happened, but it still happened. And I think the dangers of historical revisionism are self-evident.

Bruce: True or false: People who put milk and sugar in their coffee shouldnt care about how long ago it was roasted and ground.
Keith Law: You’re trying to trigger me. I will equivocate: If you drink fresher coffee, you’ll use less dairy or sweetener. If you get really good coffee, you might even go black.

Matt: Robert Stephenson last 10 games: 49.2 IP, 54 K, and only 3 HR allowed. Slowly turning a corner? Fastball sitting at 94
Keith Law: 33 walks in that span. Why would you leave that out when control has been his biggest issue?

Sanchez: Imagine advocating not using a 30 home run catcher in a winner take all game because of passed balls?
Keith Law: I saw that. It’s not good.

Mark: Now that Ausmus is gone could you throw out 3 or 4 names that should be considered as his replacement?
Keith Law: I’m going to stump for Alex Cora until he gets a shot somewhere. I know Doug Davis, currently the Scranton-Wilkes Barre defensive coach, is highly regarded in player development circles; he managed a couple of years in AAA, at least. I was talking to an exec recently about under the radar candidates and realized Billy McMillon had never gotten another managing job after a couple of successful years in AA.

Nikolai: Do you think Luis Robert could end 2018 in AA/AAA?
Keith Law: I think the range of potential outcomes for his 2018 season is extremely wide because we have no idea how advanced a hitter he is.

Thorpe: What’s Lewis Thorpe’s upside if he can stay healthy?
Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter. Maybe more, but he has to show some durability first.

Chris : I feel like Terry’s horrid lineup construction the last two months has been wildly underreported the last two months. Not playing Cecchini, continuing to sit Smith and Nimmo against lefties, continuing to throw Blevins (he’s at 74 appearances), and throwing away ABs on guys like Reynolds and Evans have all drawn my disgust. TC’s a goner, but dont people understand that this actually damaged future Mets teams bc no conclusions can be drawn from such sporadic and mindless operating?
Keith Law: Not just that, but I worry he’s damaged the hitters, or at least delayed their development, by not giving them more reps.

Caleb: What does the future look like for Braves youngster Luis Gohara?
Keith Law: High end starter.

Matt: Do you think people purposefully put questions in the “comments” or just a matter of not paying attention? Always wondered your take on this.
Keith Law: I believe the chat window doesn’t always show up on mobile devices, so some folks get confused. It’s fine. But I answer questions in here.

Steve: How do u organize all your keeper books so you can find them? Is there a KLaw Top 102 section, for ex? Sci Fi? Do tell..,
Keith Law: I only keep maybe 10-15% of what I read, and they’re semi-organized by author and type.

Derek: Do scouts ever predict the kind of defensive transcendence that Andrelton Simmons displays? With SS, it’s usually “good enough to stick at the position” or “has a chance to be above average” or something similar. I guess it’s just really tough to predict someone will be historically great. My question is: did you see Simmons becoming this defensive savant when he was a prospect? Does anybody in the minors at any position have that kind of defensive ability?
Keith Law: No; I heard he was a very good defender with an 80 arm, so maybe a 60 glove, maybe better, but I don’t recall anyone telling me he was an 80 glove. Everyone thought he’d end up on the mound.

Aaron C.: Read your newsletter this morning. Sorry to hear about the general jerkiness of humanity. Curious about the seasonal assholes you hear from: Spring = your season record predictions; Fall = your awards predictions; Winter = Hall of Fame. Who hates you in the summer?
Keith Law: Late spring and summer it’s the “you were wrong with this one take on this one player” crowd. Especially popular with players having their first good year somewhere. Whatever – it’s part of the job. My only complaint is that when I get a lot of those it can drown out real comments that might merit an answer. A week or so ago, there were some BFIBs going nuts over Luke Weaver, although they went dead silent after he faced the Cubs.

Andy: The ESPN comment section is hilarious. You’re accused of East Coast Bias due to picking Sale. Then the next comment is claiming Judge is far and away the MVP, and you clearly haven’t seen him play. Other highlights, “Javy Baez is the MVP of the Cubs,” “I don’t care about pitcher’s strikeouts,” and “Kluber has more wins in less starts.” Plus the comments about how you ignored NL ROY. To someone not you, this is all amazingly fun.
Keith Law: Never read the comments.

Guy F.: Thoughts on the salted caramel craze of the past couple of years?
Keith Law: I mean, I love salted caramel, so it’s fine with me. And the salt can mute any bitter notes in the caramel (which, since it’s lightly burned sugar, will have some bitter chemicals).

jay_B: Arbitrary end points here, but Javy Baez has been excellent in the second half. If even some of this is real, two questions: .275/.325/.500 a real possibility, and with his defensive ability, what’s that worth?
Keith Law: That’s probably a star, no? Sounds like a 4 WAR player.

Larry I in L.A.: Thanks for all of your thought-provoking work over the years, Keith! A 40-year friendship of mine is in peril due to our current political situation. We were in each other’s wedding and have been fantasy baseball partners since 1982, but now he says stuff like “I refuse to believe that our leaders would intentionally lie to us for financial gain.” (And I thought the knock on progressives was that we are gullible and naïve!) This ties in to the backlash over your hypothetical awards ballot column, another illustration that too many folks prefer to cling to outdated notions than, you know, learn new stuff. Can our country recover from this ever-widening streak of anti-intellectualism?
Keith Law: I’m not hopeful; if anything, anti-intellectualism is creeping forward, like with Florida’s legislature trying to allow the teaching of “intelligent design” (which, to be very kind, is just pseudoscience) in public schools.

Jeffry: Thought on Amed Rosario and Dom Smith after some up and down showing in the majors? Growing pains or red flags?
Keith Law: All good. Same outlook as before.
Keith Law: Aaron Judge struck out in 44% of his PA in 2016. He got better.

Chris : Do you agree with this position regarding moving players around in minors? “It’s just for versatility and flexibility,” Mets farm director Ian Levin said. “You never know what will come in the future. Also, getting exposure to other positions makes you better at your position. We get all of our middle infielders experience at second, short, even third.”
Keith Law: In general, yes. I think it also allows you to develop potential utility guys by giving them a few reps at short every year. However, I’d be concerned about putting inexperienced players at second base and having them get hurt on double plays.

Jon: How can you not include Eric Thames in your MVP consideration? I feel like you’re overweighting the final 140 games of the season.
Keith Law: Can we talk about how almost everyone is pretending that they didn’t get all hysterical over him in April? You know how many “YOU WERE WRONG ABOUT THAMES” tweets and comments I got back then? Can we remember any of this next April when some rando goes off for three weeks?

Dane Iorg: Who says no to this deal: Carson Kelly, Jack Flaherty, and Jedd Gyorko for Josh Donaldson. Cards? Jays? Both? Neither?
Keith Law: I think the Cards would and should say no to that. Very likely everyday catcher, with some upside beyond that; very likely back-end starter with modest upside; both major-league ready and cheap for six years. Ton of value there, and we’re not talking about highly volatile A-ball kids.

J.O.: Which WAR do you like better? Should I just take the average of the two? (And when I do, should I not count walks/HBP when I am calculating the average?)
Keith Law: I look at both, and where they differ greatly, I delve into where they agree and where they diverge. It’s important to understand why they differ – is it a BABIP issue (for pitchers)? Defensive disagreement (for fielders)?

Ken: What kind of line do you see Matt Chapman putting up in a full season?
Keith Law: Sub-.300 OBP, 30 HR, Gold Glove defense.

Nik: Can Dane Dunning be anything better than a decent #4?
Keith Law: I think so.

Alex A.: Is Pedro’s kid a real prospect?
Keith Law: I don’t know. I wasn’t familiar with him before he signed, and he wasn’t on Jesse Sanchez’s top 30 july 2nd prospects list this year or Longenhagen’s top 25. Also a little unusual for a prospect to sign at 17 rather than 16, but that may be because his family already has money and he was finishing school.

Grover: From your front office experience, would a move like benching Pujols require GM/ownership intervention? If he were so inclined could Scoscia just do it himself since it’s probably the best move for the team?
Keith Law: Owner would have to sign off on that.

German: How should the Twins approach the wild card game? On paper, they look overmatched, but as we know, baseball is weird.
Keith Law: If they do anything novel, it should be handling the pitching staff like there’s an extended fire drill. Start Berrios, because he’s your best starter, but have all hands on deck, and if you need seven pitchers to keep the game close, you do it. Forget the traditional model – starter goes 5-6, setup guy in 8th, closer in 9th – and just get outs. They will be overmatched, but they have at least design enough for the luck to help them.

Eddie: Any good reason why Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands aren’t states yet? It seems like bringing them officially into the union would be a win/win for everyone. My only thought is that the career politicians that run our country, on both sides of the aisle, must think bringing the 2 in will tip balance of power to the other side, therefore they choose not to push for their statehood.
Keith Law: They’d lose their favorable tax status, and American taxpayers would likely end up paying a lot to prop up their economies, especially in the first few years. I’m actually fine with that, but you can see how that might not be terribly popular in Congress, with virtually no voting constituencies in favor of it.

Sam: Keith, if I remember correctly, you mentioned you renovated your kitchen. I am starting down that path. Any recommendations? Also, thoughts on induction vs. gas stove?
Keith Law: I got a gas stove; never cooked with induction. Expect to exceed your budget by at least 10%, especially if you’re taking down drywall (oh, hello, flying splices!). And remember that granite counters help increase resale value. The only thing we couldn’t do was a double oven – the wiring wouldn’t work for it – but in hindsight that was a luxury item that I would only use maybe twice a year, not worth the extra cost anyway so it worked out.

Juan: Any thoughts on the Dr. Seuss issue?
Keith Law: I don’t understand why that librarian claims the books are racist, and I thought she really just wanted attention for her (valid) criticisms of Betsy DeVos.

Mike: A year away, but could you estimate the years and total value on the contracts Bryce Harper and Manny Machado end up signing.
Keith Law: I’ll be surprised if either ends up short of $300 million.

Matt R.: The painful decline of Albert Pujols sometimes causes us to lose track of how extraordinary he was the first 10 seasons of his career. Taking the last few years into consideration, where would you rank Pujols among right handed hitters of all-time? 1? 2? 3? Lower?
Keith Law: He’s top 3, I think, but I haven’t spent a ton of time on it. You know what’s weird is how his whole aging curve is shifted to the left by, like, five years.

Anthony: Really loving the seamless way you approach the inevitable connection of sport to politics. One of the reasons it is said there is less activism among baseball players is the lower percentage of African American players. But given the persecution of Latinos under the current administration, is it at all surprising there hasn’t been more action on that front? I also wonder if/when — particularly in a city like Los Angeles where a large portion of the fans are Latino (Mexican, primarily) — fans don’t begin to engage in peaceful protest.
Keith Law: A lot of Latino MLBers aren’t US citizens, though; I assume that’s part of why they haven’t been more vocal. And those of Venezuelan birth or descent would likely use their voices to bring attention to the failed state in Caracas instead.

Mike M.: Hi Klaw – Curious if you’ve had a chance to listen to the new Wolf Alice record, and if so, any early opinions?
Keith Law: I’ve heard the four singles they released, loved “Heavenward,” liked “Beautifully Unconventional,” found “Don’t Delete the Kisses” to be a bit twee, and thought “Yuk Foo” was a decent album track. Also, their name is really Wool Phallus, right? I’m not the only one who hears that?

Dave: You said you would explore that market for Didi. I agree with the logic, but what sort of return would you expect? Comparable to Chapman/Miller deals?
Keith Law: Two major prospects back? Sure. But he could also be a chip to get a major-league ready starter, with Pineda out, Sabathia old, and Tanaka a potential blowout at any point.

Chris: Are the Twins a good reason to change the wild card format or a good reason to keep it as is?
Keith Law: I don’t like the expanded WC, but MLB likes it – owners like it, and everyone likes the extra money – so I doubt it’s going anywhere. My opinion is that it just devalues the regular season a little bit more.

Gary: Do you know anything on the Asian prospects Bae that Atlanta signed? Any information to share?
Keith Law: He signed for just $300K, which is exceptionally low for a player from Korea, not definitive but an indicator that the industry didn’t view him as a top prospect. I’ll probably catch him in March.

Santos: Any way to get in touch with you if we want to get an autograph (on a baseball perhaps, provided with a self-addressed stamped package) and send along a donation to one of your charities? I saw your tinyletter about the boardgames and I like the idea, I’d just rather have an autograph than a board game honestly.
Keith Law: I have toyed with this idea before; I’m just concerned about executing it if a lot of requests come in. I’m not the most organized fellow when it involves anything other than writing or cooking.

James: The Royals most likely will lose their starting SS, 1B, 3B, CF and their best pitcher by WAR. We obviously don’t have the minor leaguers in AAA to cover all these holes, do you take a Dewees and have him go from AA to the majors to take over CF or take a flyer on a bargain bin veteran?
Keith Law: He can’t throw enough for CF.

Mark: Did you read the Newsday story about Collins and the Mets? If so, was any of the info new to you or is that a pretty accurate depiction of him?
Keith Law: This matched most of what I’ve heard the last few years from within the industry. Lot of complaints about him from the player side.

Matt from Milw: Is Corbin Burnes a 4th/5th, or potentially better?
Keith Law: Better.

Mark: How pathetic is it that people think Puerto Rico is another country?
Keith Law: I’ve been to PR (twice) and the USVI (once) and every time someone asked me afterwards if I needed my passport for the trip.

Matt: I saw you recently said it is just as likely players are using steroids as they are using magic (or something to that effect). I know you didn’t mean that literally, but is it unreasonable to think a small percentage are probably taking HGH or some sort of “PED”?
Keith Law: We know about 1 in 7 big leaguers is taking a PED with the league’s sanction; they get therapeutic use exemptions for the drugs, nearly always Adderall (a mixture of two amphetamine salts). My tweet was in response to a terrible NYT column that argued the rise in HR rates was due to undetected league-wide steroid use, which is obvious bunkum.

Gary: Pretty much the only successful pitcher Atlanta has called up from their rebuild focused on pitching is Gohara, and it has only been a few starts for him. Any reasons for concern about this rebuild? Is it a problem with their development? Wisler, Blair, Newcomb, Folty, Sims, etc. all have been just alright. Why are we supposed to believe the next round of arms will be different?
Keith Law: Sims was the only one in that group that Atlanta drafted. The next wave – two waves, I think – are all ATL draftees.

Colin: Would now be the time to trade Rhys Hoskins? Maybe get some youth in return?
Keith Law: Don’t think so. The 1b market is bad for sellers or free agents this winter, and also I think there’s a good chance Hoskins is a core player around whom they can build.

Max: With his inability to stay healthy, do you think it might be time for HOU to think about moving McCullers to the pen? Possibly as another Devenski?
Keith Law: I’ve suggested this many times, and of course been pilloried for it when he’s been healthy. He has a high-stress delivery, he does get hurt often, and he’s thrown 120 innings in one calendar year in the five since he signed. It’s at least a plan worth considering if you’re Houston.

Larry: Would it make sense for Atlanta to deal Inciarte instead of Kemp/Markakis? Gets Acuna in the lineup and you get a good return, whereas Kemp/Markakis wouldn’t bring back anything of value.
Keith Law: That was my argument a few weeks ago. Kemp and Markakis have negative trade value. Moving one of Inciarte or Acuna to a corner creates surplus value you can’t capture, because both can play CF.

Scrapper: Any particular storylines that you will be following in the post-season?
Keith Law: Yes, I’m curious to see who wins the World Series.

Tom: Ball Juicing: Should we care? Do you think it make the game objectively worse?
Keith Law: I think it does; the current Three True Outcomes environment likely isn’t good for growing the sport long term.

Tyler: Hear rumors that the A’s may move Barretto to CF because of the dearth of OF prospects. Any chance he will be playable out there?
Keith Law: He’s also not that great at SS. The question would be is he better in CF or at 2b; I think there’s a good chance he’s plus in CF with his speed, so I’d try it.

Joe: Keith, is this the ceiling for Trey Mancini? I am worried that if his bat drops at all he won’t be a regular since he has so much negative defensive/position value.
Keith Law: If the bat doesn’t drop, though, you have a nice, cheap regular. It’s possible.

Mark: Is Dinelson Lamet a legit 4/5 starter or just a guy?
Keith Law: Until he develops a third pitch to get lefties out, he’s just a guy.

Michael : Does Bryce Harper leave Washington?
Keith Law: I assume so. If the question is Washington or the field, I’d bet on the field. Same for Machado and Baltimore.

Bob: Do you see a connection between certain aspects of your personality (love of math; a fondness for organization) and the literature you prefer?
Keith Law: I don’t. I just love things that are great.

Mike: At what point in the draft do you roll the dice on an elite HS arm like Ethan Hankins when the draft is stocked with (more mature) college pitchers?
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s a fair summary of the class; he’s a top 5 talent right now, bearing in mind a lot can change in eight months.

Eric: Other than strategy games like chess, are there any old board games (say more than 20 years old) you still like?
Keith Law: Diplomacy’s great. Acquire is very good. And I know this isn’t what you mean, but Catan is 22 years old.

Ben: Does Albies have develop 20-25hr power in his future?
Keith Law: I want to say no, but the way the ball flies right now, there might be 40 guys this year who hit 20 HR whom I never thought would hit 20 HR.

JP: what are your thoughts on Chris Archer basically saying the clubhouse wouldn’t let him perform a peaceful protest during the National Anthem?
Keith Law: Extremely disturbed. I don’t know any details, but I hope someone in Rays management talked to him about it, and let him know they’d have his back if he chose to kneel for the anthem or sit it out.

Matt: Do you have any hope that the Orioles won’t rush Hunter Harvey?
Keith Law: I’m afraid they’ll rush him, and I heard he’s still very cross-body, which is/might be how he blew out in the first place.

Bryce Harper: Dom Smith destroyed a ball the other night with one hand. What’s his HR ceiling with the new ball?
Keith Law: I saw him in HS and thought he had plus raw or better. I’m sticking to that – there’s 25 HR in there, at least.

Ty: I bought La Flamme Rouge off of your review and like it for its balance. There seems to be a broken mechanic where exhausted cyclists can block trailing cyclists by playing exhaustion cards every turn. Have your run across it? Does this sound like a good fix? An exhaustion card cannot move into the left lane ever.
Keith Law: We didn’t run across that; I think I’d have to see this in action to follow you.

Tracy: Meanwhile, Scott Pruitt is making an abomination out of the EPA and yet no one is mentioning it, at least not the corporate media. This guy is as sleazy as they come and he is single-handedly destroying one of our most important federal agencies. Keith, if you come across any informative articles on this creep I would appreciate it if you post them on your links page.
Keith Law: The problem with the current Administration – well, one of the problems – is that with scapegraces in so many positions of power, the media can’t keep every one of their misdeeds in the spotlight. We’re busy with Tom Price spending a million bucks on luxury travel; we can’t talk about Pruitt gutting environmental protections, or DeVos making life easier for rapists on campus.

Clark: You’ve answered it before, but can you tell us what Meadow Party is a reference to?
Keith Law: Don’t blame me. I voted for Bill and Opus.

GS: The other reason PR & VI aren’t states is because they’d likely bring more Democratic Party representation to Congress. Same with DC obtaining statehood.
Keith Law: I haven’t heard that about the territories but it makes sense. Also, USVI would be the smallest state by population by almost half a million people (about 20% of what Wyoming has). That would mean you’d add two Senators for 100K people, while, say, California has two for over 37 million.

Tom: Hi Keith. A certain blogger has made the assertion that Judge is “Stanton with more walks.” Does this seem to be just a wee bit clickbait?
Keith Law: Stanton with more walks is good. I’m not sure if that’s supposed to insult one or the other.

JJ: Why are you always voting for the NL ROY? Shouldn’t they mix that up a bit? Spread your East Coast Bias around to some of the other categories, perhaps?
Keith Law: This is obviously what they’ve decided I should vote on. I have no say in it.

Chris : Royal Blood newest album is very mneh to me. Going to see them open for QOTSA at MSG regardless.
Keith Law: I loved it on first and second listen, but found I haven’t gone back to it very much.

Ron: Excited for Blade Runner 2049? Early reviews have been stellar. Grierson said it is the most gorgeous film he has ever seen.
Keith Law: Yeah, I might be proven wrong on that one. I didn’t like the idea of revisiting that world at all, especially since the first movie diverged so much from PKD’s book.

Steve: What the hell happened to Chris Tillman and can he bounce back next year?
Keith Law: Came back too quick from the shoulder injury last year and hasn’t been the same since.

Andy: Will your eventual memoir be titled: No One Ever Reads the Intro?
Keith Law: Yes, but only if I get to start with a 30-page intro.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thank you all, as always, for reading, and an extra thanks to everyone who’s donated to my little boardgame-sale fundraising effort. We’re over $500 to three charities, two for hurricane relief and one a local food pantry. I appreciate everyone’s generosity; goodness knows the islands hit by Irma and/or Maria need our help. I’ll be back next week for another chat.

Ticket to Ride First Journey app.

The current explosion in popularity of European-style boardgames has tended towards older players, adults or teenagers, without as much emphasis on the youngest players who, at least historically, were a prime target for boardgame publishers. A few companies have produced stripped-down, introductory versions of their Eurogames for kids aged 8 and under, but until now none of them had appeared in app form. Asmodee Digital changed that with today’s release of their Ticket to Ride: First Journey app for iOS devices, Android, and Steam, and as you’d expect from an Asmodee product, it looks incredible, plays smoothly, and is extremely stable and reliable. At $4.99, it’s a steal for folks who want to introduce their younger kids to the glories of tabletop gaming.

Ticket to Ride: First Journey is a simplified version of the boardgame Ticket To Ride, which is itself among my top five games all time for its own simplicity and universal appeal, with First Journey – sold exclusively at Target – aimed at kids six and up (and probably fine for kids as young as four, as long as they can match colors). The board itself is smaller, with fewer cities on it and fewer trains required to connect cities that remain – there are no five-train connections between cities, for example.

If you’re already familiar with the rules and mechanics of the full versions of Ticket to Ride, here are the main differences between that game and the First Journey version:

  • You draw two train cards from the deck rather than choosing from five visible options.
  • You start the game with two route tickets (and have no choice).
  • When you finish one ticket, you get another ticket.
  • Everyone knows when you’ve finished a route.
  • Each ticket is worth one point; first to six points wins.
  • You get a point for building a continuous route from coast to coast.
  • There is no penalty for failing to complete a route.
  • Even in the two-player game, players can use both routes between two cities, and you can’t occupy both routes to block another player.
  • Each player has 20 train cars; as in the regular game, if a player places all his/her cars, that also triggers game-end.

The board is streamlined, and the cities on your route cards are animated in the app until you complete them. Each city has a unique icon, like a beaver in Montreal, a totem pole in Seattle, or a movie camera in Los Angeles. The pictures are bright and the text is very clean – not quite Comic Sans, but in that vein. You can drag your train cards to a route to place them; it’s a little fussy about your placement, but the app zooms in on the two cities to help you direct the arrow to the correct route. When you have two colors of tracks between cities, the one you can use is evident and the one you can’t use shows up with lock symbols on it. Some of the routes are extremely short – one track of three trains, two tracks of one or two trains each – so it doesn’t take long to complete your tickets.

On a turn, you have just three options: take two train cards, place trains on the map, or trash your two current route tickets and draw two new ones. That keeps turns quicker than in the base game, since no one is hemming and hawing over which train cards to select, and gives you an out when other players have done something to prevent you from completing a route card.

The route-planning aspects of the main game are still here but much simpler. There’s no longest route bonus, just the “coast to coast” bonus, so building a more efficient route that encompasses your two initial tickets is more about hoping you’ve already completed tickets you’ll draw later in the game or will at least be closer to finishing them. That means less need for the long-term planning of the original game, which makes it easier for younger players to keep up with the adults.

For the youngest players, First Journey might still present the frustration that comes from getting boxed out of a route, especially with three or four players. You can use your turn to trash your two current route cards, however, and draw two new ones, which at least gives you a chance to draw something you’ve already completed or at least will be able to complete. It also means that showing other players your route cards isn’t a negative, so if parents want to help their kids it doesn’t hurt the parents’ ability to play their own hands. The game still has a fair amount of luck involved in card draws of both types, and it’s possible to just have an unlucky game, which cuts both ways with younger players since they can be helped by randomness as well as irritated by it. There are three levels of AI difficulty; I only played against the Hard AI, which I think would be hard for a young player new to the game but isn’t challenging for someone who’s played the full Ticket to Ride.

The game appears to end immediately when one player reaches six points, rather than allowing all players a final turn as in the base game, which seems to give the first player an advantage. It’s possible, therefore, to have a player complete his/her fifth route and then draw a ticket for a route s/he has already completed, ending the game on the spot.

The game comes with a U.S. map and players can unlock a Europe map with a free Asmodee online account. The Europe map will be a standalone game in physical form (due out to U.S. retail in January) and includes a coast-to-coast style bonus, which is more of a west-to-east bonus with players connecting Dublin, Brest, or Madrid to Moscow, Rostov, or Ankara (represented by a samovar rather than an iron fist). There are also collectible stamps within the app for players to earn with each victory.

The First Journey app is ideal for players too young for the full game, with the inflection point probably somewhere around age 7 or 8 depending on your kids’ experiences with better boardgames. For older kids and adults, I recommend the Ticket to Ride app itself, which is among the best boardgame apps available and allows you to buy different maps as in-app purchases to give you different experiences and new rules tweaks.

The Fountains of Paradise.

Arthur C. Clarke is generally listed among the giants of science fiction, thanks in large part to Stanley Kubrick’s seminal adaptation of his short story “The Sentinel” into popular a film, 2001, which Clarke simultaneously adapted into the novel 2001: A Space Odyssey. The film’s reach and impact extended well beyond sci-fi audiences, with one of the most memorable movie soundtracks in film history and a bit of dialogue that made the American Film Institute’s list of the 100 Greatest Movie Quotes of All Time (although, strangely, they include the line “Open the pod bay doors, HAL,” rather than the more oft-repeated followup, “I’m sorry, Dave, I’m afraid I can’t do that.)

That’s a long bit of lead-in to reveal that I’ve always found Clarke’s writing to be dry and dull. He’s very science, as we might say on Twitter, and spends little to no time on character creation or development, and not a whole lot more on plot beyond the scientific aspects of his topic. I read 2001 maybe twenty years ago and was surprised by how thin the book was – HAL, a computer, is the most interesting character by a wide margin – and then had a similar experience two years ago with Rendezvous with Rama, which won Clarke the first of his two Hugo Awards for Best Novel in 1972. He won the award a second time with The Fountains of Paradise, in 1979, and while that latter book certainly is more novelesque than Rama, it suffers from the same problems as everything else I’ve read by Clarke: The scientific idea at the heart of the story dwarfs all of the typical considerations that go into whether a novel is good as a piece of literature or even popular fiction. (Both books won the Nebula Award for Best Novel in their respective years as well.)

The Fountains of Paradise is built around the idea of the construction of the first space elevator, a hypothetical device that could be used to transport people and goods to and from space at a fraction of the cost of current rocket technology, which is based around and thus restricted by the weight, cost, and supply of fossil fuels. A space elevator would involve threads of extremely strong (and as yet speculative) material that extend from some point on the earth out over 35,000 km above the planet’s surface, relying on the counterbalancing forces of the earth’s gravity and the centrifugal force from the earth’s rotation to with a robotic lifter climbing the ribbon using a still-undetermined method of power (until the lifter gets high enough to rely on solar power) to drive its ascent. The idea has been around for over a century, became a bit more realistic with the publication of a scientific paper on the topic in 1975, and, if it ever came to fruition, would be useful for endeavors like sending people to Mars or mining an asteroid.

Clarke takes the space elevator and builds a thin story around the political and engineering obstacles towards the construction of one on a fictionalized version of Sri Lanka, where a Buddhist shrine happens to sit on the ideal location for the Earthside terminal of the space elevator. The protagonist of Clarke’s work is an engineer, Dr. Vannevar Morgan, who wants to build this space elevator after his successful construction of a bridge across the Strait of Gibraltar – which, for what it’s worth, sounded utterly impossible in Clarke’s description – and views the cultural and religious objections as mere impediments to the march of progress. Morgan is a lifeless, one-dimensional character, and gets more page time than anyone else in the book, but none of the various secondary characters who appear has any more depth or personality.

The focus on the scientific underpinnings of the elevator and the engineering challenges in its construction means that when something goes wrong with the elevator itself or in its construction, the stakes are quite low. Even the book’s ultimate rescue scene lacks much suspense; it’s pretty clear, or was to me at least, how it was going to end, and to raise the stakes Clarke has to have Morgan forget some facts that would, I think, be obvious to an engineer of his experience. He also abuses Chekhov’s gun in the story, in the form of a heart monitor that telegraphs early on how the story is going to end.

The paint-by-numbers aspect of the main story is further exacerbated by the inclusion of a second story around the appearance, some years earlier, in our solar system of an interstellar probe with a sophisticated AI that proves to us the existence of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe. This subplot seems to bear no real purpose in the broader story other than to underline Clarke’s disdain for religion and to explain the disappearance of religion in general in the book’s 21st-century setting. Religiosity in developed countries has declined over the last hundred years or so, and may very well continue to do so, but to prophesy its disappearance seems like wishful thinking, and puts Clarke in the school of G.H. Hardy, who once wrote of his desire to find a single proof of the nonexistence of God that would convince all of humanity. I certainly respect any writer’s right to incorporate his own religious beliefs or unbelief into his/her writing, but in a book about the construction of a space elevator, it comes across as a distracting non sequitur, and does nothing whatsoever to advance the central plot or explain the motivations of any core characters. I get the appeal of Clarke to those who read science fiction for the speculative aspects of its scientific content, but no matter the genre, I need something more than that, and Clarke doesn’t deliver that in any of his best-known novels.

Next up: Mark Pendergrast’s Uncommon Grounds: The History of Coffee and How it Transformed Our World.

For the love of algebra.

I have always loved math, and I don’t think there’s any field within math I love more than algebra. I certainly enjoyed calculus, and there are parts of number theory that still fascinate me (Goldbach’s conjecture, an unproven hypothesis that dates back to 1742, more than anything else), but algebra just speaks to me like nothing else in the domains of math or science. So when I saw this week’s FiveThirtyEight Riddler problem, which boils down to solving two equations for two unknowns, I might have dropped everything I was doing and spent about a half an hour solving it – messily, but I think ultimately getting the right answer.

My own personal love of algebra dates back to when I was ten years old, and my junior high school, lacking an honors math class for sixth grade, decided instead to bump me up to the regular eighth grade math course, where I met a wonderful teacher and some awful kids. (I was three years younger than they were, and of course small for my age anyway.) I was told very little about the move but somehow understood that I’d be learning algebra, so I went to the school library and found a book, long out of print now, called Realm of Algebra, by an author I’d never heard of at the time but would later grow to know very well through his science fiction writing, Isaac Asimov. I devoured the book, which I credit to Asimov’s ability to make even abstruse concepts clear to readers, in a weekend, and ended up ahead of where I needed to be for the class. Algebra felt to me like another language, as easy to comprehend as English, maybe even more so – like this was my native tongue and everyone had been hiding it from me. I could always “think” in numbers, but algebra gave me an entire framework for it, and everything I learned that year, especially from Asimov’s book, still directs much of how I think about problems today.

It has also made me an easy mark for puzzles and games that revolve around algebraic questions. I often check FiveThirtyEight’s Riddler questions, but I rarely try to solve them – some look too hard or involved, some just don’t grab me. This week’s question, about finding the area of a missing rectangle, hooked me from the start. (I suppose I should disclose that FiveThirtyEight is part of the ESPN network of sites, and thus I am connected to it as well.) Here’s the question in brief: Find the missing area in the picture below, bearing in mind that it is not to scale.

A puzzle of rectangles.

I tweeted the link to the article last night and got a slew of responses from readers, some right, some I don’t think were right, and a few that gave me more insight into the problem – one of which made me realize my first answer was impossible – so I decided to take a few minutes and explain my method, in case it’s useful to anyone or still contains a mistake.

To figure out the area of the lower-left rectangle, you need to know its height and width, so this is a problem of two unknowns, which means you need (at least) two equations containing those unknowns to be able to solve it. To make the math a little less messy, I defined the height (vertical axis) of the target area as 11-x and the width (horizontal axis) as 14-y, meaning that the height of the upper-left area is x and the width of the lower-right area is y. We know the area of the lower right rectangle is 45, and the area of the upper left rectangle is 32, so using the formula for the area of a rectangle we get the following two equations:

(14 – y)x = 14x – xy = 32
y(11 – x) = 11y – xy = 45

You can then solve one equation for one variable in terms of the other, substitute that back into the second equation, and solve for one of the two variables. I chose to solve the first equation for x, yielding:

x(14 – y) = 32
x = 32/(14 – y)

11y – y(32/(14 – y)) = 45

11y – 32y/(14 – y) = 45
11y(14 – y) – 32y = 45(14 – y)
154y – 11y2 – 32y = 630 – 45y
–11y2 + 167y – 630 = 0

That, my friends, is a quadratic equation, and if you remember your quadratic formula – where you take the two coefficients and the constant and plug them into the formula to get the two possible solutions – you can solve it from here, or you can just plug them into this site and get your two answers for y, which in this case are 7 or 90/11.

It turns out that both answers produce whole-number, positive results for the area of the lower left rectangle. If y is 7, x is 32/7, and the area is 45. If y is 90/11, x is 11/2 (5.5) and the area is 32. A reader pointed out that the first answer is impossible, however, because of the one number I haven’t mentioned yet: the truncated, upper-right rectangle’s area, which is 34. Because the area of the whole shebang has to be less than 154 (11 * 14), since there’s a piece missing at the extreme upper right, then the lower left area has to be less than (154 – 32 – 34 – 45), which is 43. That leaves 32 as the only possible answer. (EDIT: Fixed the second sentence, where I transposed the two answers.)

I think.

Stick to baseball, 9/22/17.

I wrote three pieces for Insiders this week: scouting notes on Yu Darvish, more notes on Aaron Nola and some young Phillies hitters, and my annual look at players I was wrong about. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

I’m down to biweekly game reviews for Paste, so the most recent one is from last week, covering the great Days of Wonder-published title Yamataï, by the same designer who won the Spiel des Jahres (game of the year) this year for his game Kingdomino.

My book, Smart Baseball, is out and still selling well (or so I’m told); thanks to all of you who’ve already picked up a copy. And please sign up for my free email newsletter, which is back to more or less weekly at this point now that I’m not traveling for a bit.

And now, the links…

War Machine.

Three new Insider pieces for you to check out this week: scouting notes on Yu Darvish, more notes on Aaron Nola and some young Phillies hitters, and my annual look at players I was wrong about.

War Machine, released briefly to theaters this spring but residing in perpetuity on Netflix, is a thinly fictionalized adaptation of Michael Hastings’ non-fiction book The Operators, itself an expasion of Hastings’ infamous Rolling Stone article that led to the resignation of General Stanley McChrystal from his post as Commander of the coalition forces fighting in Afghanistan in 2010. It is a decidedly unflattering depiction of just about everything and everyone involved in the endless war against the Taleban, although it succeeds more in its portrayal of individual foibles than as an indictment of the war effort as a whole, laying more on the comic end of the scale than on the satirical side.

Brad Pitt stars as General Glen McMahon, the movie’s pseudonym for the McChrystal character, a tough-talkin’, f-bomb-droppin’, let’s-go-kick-some-terrorist-ass general brought in to replace the last let’s-go-kick-some-terrorist-ass general who couldn’t win the unwinnable war in Afghanistan. It appears that this is what McChrystal was really like, although he feels like a walking cliché, a Hollywood-ized representation of what a no-nonsense military leader should look, act, and talk like. He comes to the coalition with his group of acolytes and toadies, including the rah-rah Major General (based on Michael Flynn) played hilariously by Anthony Michael Hall, who largely cheer him on or at least avoid contradicting him, and has somewhat predictable conflicts with American diplomats, notably Karl Eikenberry stand-in Pat McKinnon, played by Alan Ruck (whom you know as Cameron Frye). McChrystal comes across as well-intentioned but largely naive about how unwinnable the conflict really is, although he does have moments of clarity – like the talk he gives to the European Parliament where he explains how killing insurgents likely creates more insurgents in the long run – amidst the standard military maneuvers.

Pitt seems so focused here on doing his impression of McChrystal that any nuance in the character is lost. The portrayal is all accent, facial expressions, and gait – his jogging scenes are just strange, as it seems impossible that Pitt could appear that unathletic – and lacks any depth, which is shocking because Pitt is capable of so much more. His performance is indicative of the misuse of so many talented actors in two-dimensional roles here – Ben Kingsley as the drug-addled, feckless President Karzai; Topher Grace as McMahon’s “civilian media adviser,” who sets up the ill-fated Rolling Stone article; Meg Tilly, looking disturbingly old in short grey hair, as McMahon’s ignored, adoring wife. Only Tilda Swinton, given one scene as a German politician who interrogates and questions McMahon during the talk to the Parliament, gets any material with which she can work, and it’s all of one scene. (There’s also an uncredited cameo at the end of the film that I won’t spoil but that did generate one of the many laugh-out-loud moments I had.)

War Machine has been reviewed and marketed as a satire, but I think it works better as a straight comedy with tragic elements. It’s too close to real events to work as farce; the U.S. effort in Afghanistan was destined to fail, at least once the initial goal of removing the Taleban, who harbored al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden, had been achieved, and everything after that was theater. The script certainly hones that to a fine point – the value of the war effort to politicians and the political cost of increasing the engagement both come through – but without parodic exaggeration. Instead, the script succeeds by crafting comedy against an unusual backdrop, including two scenes where Kingsley’s Karzai gets probably the biggest laughs of the film, without telling the viewer anything s/he didn’t already know about the circular nature of the war effort.

(The film contains a clip of President Obama’s speech at West Point, announcing a troop surge in 2009; just last month, almost eight full years later, President Trump announced the same thing. The effort to train Afghan forces to protect their own country has already cost us $70 billion and costs another $4 billion every year, while parts of the country remain within Taleban control or “contested” between the government and insurgents.)

The magazine article that eventually led to this film toppled a general and drew back the curtain on a little bit of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan, but ultimately led to no substantive change in our policy there. Even if this film had become a massive hit in theaters – Netflix doesn’t release viewership numbers, so we have no idea how many people have even seen it – it’s unlikely to change anyone’s mind on our policy there. War Machine is often very funny, and it may increase your weariness of the war, or our country’s repeated, failed attempts at nation-building (even where our intentions were good) abroad, but I don’t think this movie tells us anything about the war or the politics thereof that we didn’t already know.

Klawchat 9/21/17.

Three new Insider pieces for you to check out this week: scouting notes on Yu Darvish, more notes on Aaron Nola and some young Phillies hitters, and my annual look at players I was wrong about.

Keith Law: Going with the flow, it’s all a game to me. Klawchat.

James: Does Fernando Tatis Jr stick at SS?
Keith Law: I think it’s 50/50. Depends on how much bigger he gets. Certainly has the hands and actions for it.

James: Luis Urias has a killer eye at the plate but lacks power or any other standout tool. What kind of MLB player could he develop into?
Keith Law: Possible regular at 2b but lack of power is a major concern. Think it’s a more likely outcome he becomes some sort of utility guy or multi-position regular.

Nick: Why does Scioscia continue to play Albert Pujols during a postseason run even though Pujols clearly hurts the team AND they have better options???
Keith Law: I’m going to go way out on a limb here and say it’s because of his contract.

Michael: Odd question: do you ever wear a baseball cap? If so, which logo is on it? I would think it would have to be something non-partisan like a Homestead Grays cap or some such thing.
Keith Law: If you see me at a game I will probably have a cap on, especially in the daytime. None of them have logos of any team.

Brian Sabean: When will you nerds put down your slide rulers and realize that clutch hitting is real? You can’t measure clutchitude.
Keith Law: I believe the technical term is “clutchiness.”

Clarence (not Mike D.): Rangers fan here. Last year I felt good about Roughie Odor’s season, despite the 3% walk rate, because of the 30+ homeruns and the wRC+ of 106. Given his position and age, there was some reason to be excited. This season, though? Good lord, what an atrocity. Any hope for this kid’s approach?
Keith Law: He hasn’t given us any reason to have hope for it.

TJ: Do you think that we’ll see aluminum/composite bats in MLB within the next 25 years?
Keith Law: Christ I hope not. I’ll have to find a new line of work.

@RationalMLBfan: In last week’s chat, you mentioned that Gleybar at 2B would be a waste of his defensive ability. Would you explore trading Gregorius, who has turned into a solid average SS (whose hitting is *not* a product of YS, per his splits), in the next year to address the 2019 logjam? Try to trade Castro (or not [re]sign Frazier, Headley, Machado) and move Gregorius to 2B or 3B?
Keith Law: I would explore the market for Didi; I believe strongly that 1) this is his peak and 2) Gleyber has a much higher ceiling.

TJ: Do you have any take on the Neshek/Grienke autograph story?
Keith Law: Only that mentioning Greinke’s social anxiety in the news stories about it is just bullshit.

Keith: How do you think the White Sox will handle Luis Robert next season? Has your POV on him changed based on anything you heard from the DSL?
Keith Law: He was way too old for the DSL – most players there are 18 or younger. I assume he’ll start in Kannapolis.

Thad: Any chance Sean newcomb’s increased use of his high whiff change will help spring his breakout? Control issues need to change obviously but a lefty with a good change and high spin rate breaking ball seems too good to never figure it out.
Keith Law: Still haven’t seen a good argument why he’ll throw strikes other than “he’ll eventually throw strikes.” It’s not his delivery, and I don’t see how anyone could easily alter it to improve his control or command.

Kevin: In reading one of the links you posted a couple of weeks ago, I began wondering how many kids who don’t participate in showcases actually end up being drafted out of high school. It seems like their names become known based on these events. Are there actually kids out there who are not part of that circuit who end up being “Guys”? If so, how does word typically get out about them, since it seems almost every college and pro guy loves the one stop shopping of these big events?
Keith Law: Yes, plenty of kids get drafted without paying to go to showcases. I’m not sure why you’d say “almost every college and pro guy” loves those events; have you talked to that many coaches and scouts to make such a claim? Area scouts prefer to go see players one by one in actual games rather than the artificial environment of showcases.

Mike: Once Javy started to start everyday once Addi went out it seems like his plate discipline improved. Do you think he can get to a little below average walk rate if he starts everyday?
Keith Law: I do not. I don’t think he’s wired for that.

Jose R.: The Marlins’ Brian Anderson kind of snuck up on us this year. Can he be their everyday 3B next year without hurting the team?
Keith Law: Reports on the defense have been glowing this year; if he’s really a 6 or 7 glove there, then yes, he’s a regular, even if the bat’s a little light.

Seth: A couple small things that always bothered me. With interleague play everyday, why do we have to reset the stats of a player if they switch leagues? Also: if a pitcher commits the error, should it be considered an earned run? I’ll hang up and listen!
Keith Law: Resetting the stats is an anachronism that should probably due now. I think the unearned run/earned run distinction is useless.

Dan: De la Cruz pulled from AFL. Starting to become a concern that he can’t say healthy?
Keith Law: Already was a concern, now I’d just say it’s a legitimate reason to question his value.

Juwan: Do you view Victor Robles as having superstar upside? He has looked insanely dynamic for the Nats in the few performances we got to see him.
Keith Law: I do. Huge tools, still young, has always performed even when young for his leagues.

Chris: Bob Geren. On a scale from just find a new team to root for to just jump off a cliff, what should Mets’ fans reaction be to this likely hire?
Keith Law: He’s not Terry, which is an automatic improvement. What I don’t know is if Geren will be better the second time around – if he learned anything from his failures the first time, like AJ Hinch or Terry Francona did.

TC: Hey Keith, loving the book. I coach a travel team of 12/13 year old boys (no we don’t let them pitch on consecutive days or throw more than 60 pitches in an outing!) but I was wondering about the applicability of the 75% rule for stolen bases at that age level (as in, if they can’t steal successfully at least 75% of the time then they shouldn’t even try) – should that percentage be higher? lower? . I’m happy to report that my team NEVER bunts (unless it’s for a base hit)
Keith Law: Probably much lower because of the higher likelihood of an error or misplay that results in a steal that gains you two extra bases.

Jon: Any updates thoughts on Cole Tucker (SS – Pit) now that his season is over? Could he make Trea Turner-like improvements next year in his age-22 season at AA?
Keith Law: Nothing like Turner at all. Saw him a few weeks ago and wrote about him – good news is his arm seems fine, bat isn’t as far along as i’d like.

Ml: If you are running the Twins, is Kepler a part of your future?
Keith Law: Yes.

David: What would the penalty be if MLB discovered an “under the table” deal with Ohtani?
Keith Law: A fine, and maybe a loss of international pool money and/or draft picks. Probably still worth it. MLB is royally screwing this up. Manfred should just waive the rules for Otani and let him go to the highest bidder. Otherwise, the kid is nuts to come over now, between the restrictions and his impending ankle surgery.

Pops: What is your take on the Greinke/Neshek spat? Does Zach’s anxiety belong in the conversation? Isn’t that an entirely plausible explanation for his behavior here?
Keith Law: If Greinke wants to explain his behavior by referring to his social anxiety, that’s fine. YOU do not get to do that.

Marshall : What’s the outlook on Ryan O’Hearn? Previously you said that you didn’t think he’d be a regular…. Has he done anything to change your mind?
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s a fair representation of what I said; he has big-league power, and the contact he makes tends to be very hard (I think his exit velos are good too), but he hasn’t shown the approach or OBP skills to get to regular status yet. In a weak system, with potential holes all over the major league roster next year, though, I’d like to see the Royals give him a shot.

Chris : Are there certain stats that you discount given September baseball can be less meaningful and rosters are expanded? I love watching Nimmo play but am not sure if his Sept and OBP are a product of bad pitching or actual development.
Keith Law: I would generally discount everything in September if it’s an outlier compared to what the player did before (majors or minors).

Dog: Has anything in Luke Weaver’s outstanding performance since he was called up changed your opinion of him long-term, or is this just a small sample size fluke?
Keith Law: Tiny sample, facing some bad lineups, uncharacteristically high GB% (never been close to 50% anywhere else in his pro career, over 50% in majors this year). Zach Duke had a great first half-season in the majors that didn’t look that different from Weaver’s.
Keith Law: FWIW, I think Weaver’s better than Duke. Weaver’s a starter, just not a top of rotation guy.

Derick: Did you see Sabean’s interview on clutch hitting? Is it weird that the least disturbing part of the interview (at least for a Giant’s fan) is when he said “I’ll kiss your ass on Main Street”?
Keith Law: There were a lot of comments there and from Bochy that I didn’t understand. It sounded like the team is blaming Belt for having a concussion, too.

Ben: Rant: It’s so frustrating having to watch Braves games on mute because Chip & Joe spend the whole game complaining about modern baseball. They honestly argued that hitters hit too many home runs last night. Not enough “exciting hit and run, fundamental baseball” they said. I have to watch baseball games on mute, Keith!! Ridiculous.
Keith Law: Joe Simpson – who, I’m told, has taken some shots at me on air – should spend some time with his own team’s front office.

Scott: This is something that probably takes more than a chat answer to get in to, but when you’re evaluating a catcher’s game calling, what are some of the things you look for?
Keith Law: I don’t. I rely on coaches, players, team execs. I can’t evaluate that stuff from teh stands.

Dog: Is Galvis really good enough to push JP Crawford off of SS?
Keith Law: No, that’s silly.

Dana: Do you think the Wild Card Game should be a best of 3 series? Nothing more random than one baseball game.
Keith Law: I don’t want longer playoffs.

Rob : You weren’t as high as some on Jordan Adell in the draft, so has his early minor league success surprised you at all?
Keith Law: Nothing a player does in his first summer surprises me. Go look at what Dante Bichette Jr. did his first pro summer.

CB: Do you think you have any readers in Nambia?
Keith Law: No but I’m huge in Nimbabwe.

Dog: Do you buy into the theory that the baseballs are different this season, leading to more home runs? Could that also explain why guys are seeing a power jump once they get promoted to the majors from the minors (I know its a small sample, but Jesse Winker, for example, has shown way more over the fence power than expected).
Keith Law: Not a theory any more. The baseballs are different; we have direct and secondary evidence to support this.

Danny: Do you still think Clint Frazier will produce strong average and on base numbers? I think I recall you once saying that he was the best best in the minors at one point to have a batting title.
Keith Law: Did I say that? He does have one of the 2 or 3 fastest bats I’ve ever seen, but his eye has never been great.

Eric: Should Rick Honeycutt be directing Darvish to throw his changeup/cutter as you recommended? Is the fact that Darvish isn’t throwing this way essentially Honeycutt thinking it’s unnecessary or Darvish deciding he can’t/won’t do it? Both of those scenarios seem like mismanagement of an asset; the Dodgers should be trying to extract as much value out of Darvish as they can while they have him.
Keith Law: It’s not easy to just go tell a veteran player “do this, not that.” You have to get him to buy into it. I don’t have to worry about that in my job – I get to just state my opinion and not worry about whether the player agrees – but that should at least be a conversation the Dodgers have with Darvish, about throwing his changeup more (or maybe restoring the splitter?) and throwing the cutter a lot less.

Danny: Do Jorge Guzman or Freicer Perez look like starters to you?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen either yet, but based on what scouts have told me, Perez yes, Guzman probably not.

Brett: Is Klaw an Apple or Android kind of guy?
Keith Law: Apple. Had bad experiences with two Android phones years ago and that ended it for me. I do own a Kindle Fire, but use it almost exclusively as an e-reader.

Andrew, NY: I just watched the video you posted of lagreca on twitter. and he is dead wrong about the pythagorean theorem not being in baseball. My nephew just moved up a level in little league and is a C. we wanted to see have far his throw is now compared to last year and used that theorem to figure it out. and i didnt even have to do a mock lisp..go figure.
Keith Law: The rank anti-intellectualism of the rant was maybe the most disturbing part but hardly the only one. I wonder if he can explain the Pythagorean Theorem in plain English. Either the baseball one or the real one.

Robert: Do you think Duggar or Bryan Reynolds would be a better fit for CF at AT&T park in S.F.? Thanks
Keith Law: Reynolds, I think. Both are interesting, with some upside. I’ve seen Reynolds more in CF and believe he can play it.

Miguel: Do you think Eric Hosmer is an upgrade over Brandon Belt? Belt walks a ton more and rates as a much better fielder but on the Baseball Tonight podcast Buster and Kurkjian were saying the Giants should dump Belt for Hosmer. Are they forgetting Hosmer had a negative WAR just last year?
Keith Law: Hosmer’s 2017 season is an enormous outlier compared to the rest of his career; even with this year, Belt has nearly twice the career WAR. I don’t think a reasonable projection for each player has Hosmer as an upgrade – certainly not enough of one to justify paying him a premium, selling low on Belt, and probably ceding a draft pick.

JOD: Thoughts on the AL CY race? See arguments both ways re Sale vs. Kluber. To me it matters Sale has made 4 more starts, and it shouldn’t be held against him since Kluber’s made fewer starts and has a lower ERA.
Keith Law: Kluber for me but I don’t feel strongly about it. Either is deserving.

Andres: Thoughts on Slotface’s new release?
Keith Law: Liked most of it. They should be getting a lot more airplay/attention here than they are.

Scott: Nobody ever talks about Tom Eshelman, probably because he barely cracks 90 mph. But unlike Nick Pivetta, for example, who throws 95, Eshelman doesn’t walk anyone or give up home runs. Do you think he can be an effective big league starter? If so, what’s his ceiling?
Keith Law: He doesn’t give up home runs *in the minors*. We’ll see if Eshelman can avoid giving up home runs when sitting 87-88 against big league hitters.

Marty: Will we finally see netting down the lines at all stadiums, after what happened in NY yesterday? Why does it always take a tragedy/near tragedy for people to wake up about something so obvious?
Keith Law: I hope so. Otherwise we’re saying “we’ll just wait until a fan dies.”

Hinkie: I know the 2018 draft is going to be loaded with pitching, but I’d like your thoughts on a couple of hitters … 1 college, 1 prep. Are Jeremy Eierman and/or Nolan Gorman the type of players good enough to be top 5 picks ?
Keith Law: Think that’s probably optimistic on both.

Alex: Do you really think Braves trade Ender Inciarte?
Keith Law: I never said I thought they would; I said I thought they should.

Steve: Hi Keith, have you read any NK Jemisin? I just finished The Inheritance trilogy and it was beautiful.
Keith Law: I’ve read The Fifth Season and really liked it.

Pat D: Have to play devil’s advocate here a little. ESPN ultimately fired Curt Schilling for a history of saying “controversial” things. Jemelle Hill has a similar history, not as extensive, perhaps, yet she was not fired. Doesn’t this help fuel the ESPN bias narrative that certain people love to perpetuate?
Keith Law: “Controversial” is quite the euphemism. The devil deserves a better advocate than you.

Great Big Little Panther: How often do you go to a minor league or amateur game to scout a known prospect, but come away more impressed by a relatively unknown player?
Keith Law: Almost never.

Pat: Have you heard anything about the severity of Sedlock’s “forearm” injury? Was a disaster this year, then got hurt (though maybe the injury caused the ineffectiveness).
Keith Law: Not really, just heard he wasn’t coming back. Add him to the pile of young arms littering the site of I-895.

Ethan: Do you see Otani coming over now for less money, or waiting for big payday? Does the lower price tag make it any more likely that a team with a lower payroll could actually end up signing him?
Keith Law: I think it’s more likely he waits, given the cap, the ankle injury, and the fact that he hasn’t even hired an agent yet.

Alex: Is the ceiling of Bryse Wilson really higher than Mike Soroka?
Keith Law: I think it is.

Kirby Puckett & The Union Gap: Devers has made a bunch of errors lately, & his fielding percentage has fallen almost to Ryan Braun level. just a slump, or cause for concern?
Keith Law: If you want to talk about a player’s error total, you’re in the wrong chat, pal.

Matt : Is there any chance Judge can still win the MVP? Maybe if the Yankees win the division with him breaking McGuire’s rookie hat record home run record? Or does Altuve have it locked up?
Keith Law: Altuve should have it locked up, but narratives do affect the voting. Maybe some nitwit will argue the Astros were so good that they didn’t need Altuve.

Brett: As of 9/21/17, do you foresee Acuna or Eloy being higher on your 2018 Top 100 list?
Keith Law: I would refer back to my top 50 list in July, which contained both players.

Ben: I’ve always loved popular science books like Asimov, Sagan, Gamow, Feynman and others. Have you read any good recent science books that you’d recommend?
Keith Law: Ed Yong’s I Contain Multitudes is the best book in that genre I’ve read this year.

Lumin: Are you evaluating prospects’ future hit/power tools (or even pitchers’ FB rate) differently in the juiced-but-still-standard ball era?
Keith Law: No, because I think (without clear proof) that the scale should hold – that the rising tide lifts all boats. I haven’t seen, for example, why certain players would get a larger boost to their power outputs than others. If I saw such evidence, however, I would make that change.

CJ: It’s a SSS, obviously, but J.P. Crawford went from 0 walks, 7 Ks in his first 6 games to 7 walks, 7 Ks in his next 8 games. Is the latter sustainable for a player as young as he is?
Keith Law: When I saw him prior to this year, his at bats were consistently good, even when the outcomes weren’t. He didn’t mind hitting with two strikes, and he seemed to really understand the outer edge of his zone. For whatever reason, that fell apart in the first half of this year, and I haven’t gotten a satisfactory explanation for it. But what he’s done the last week-plus, and what I specifically saw him do Tuesday night, looks much more like the guy I rated as a top-5 prospect the last two winters.

Jay: I saw someone on Twitter joke that the Dodgers didnt care about winning home field advantage by “benching” Pedro Baez but in theory, wouldn’t the Dodgers be better off NOT having home field advantage? What NL team would want home field in the World Series? I would have to think its more probably they would benefit from a 4th game being able to use a DH than they would playing a home game in a 7 game series filled with randomeness, right?
Keith Law: Do they have a proper DH option? I don’t think they even have three decent outfielders right now.

Ethan: I’m asking this as a proponent of WAR, but are historical WAR figures a good measure? I’ve never understood how they are compiled for players like Ruth, Williams, etc. Aren’t stats, tracking systems, measures used to calculate now that weren’t then?
Keith Law: Historical WAR figures use different defensive metrics, but the core concept is the same: Value every event, add them up, compare to position, adjust for park and league.

Mike: Ever listen to David Cone on YES network doing Yankees’ telecasts? He seems to have a strong understanding of, and appreciation for, modernized statistics AND the ability to translate them into game strategy.
Keith Law: I’ve heard Coney a few times and think he’s among the best because he’s so thoughtful about what he says. I’m not sure I have ever heard him talk just to talk.

Todd: How panicked should Brewers fans be about Jimmy Nelson’s injury? I’ve long defended the no DL in the National League but i’d like it now please.
Keith Law: Labrum surgery is never good. I’m disappointed.

Tracy: Do you sell the books you read to any particular place or do you donate them?
Keith Law: There’s a store in West Chester PA where we donate. We’ve given to local libraries, but our local system isn’t taking donations right now (with some exceptions – I had bought several out-of-print Pulitzer winners to read, and they took those because they didn’t have them anywhere in the state libraries).

Pat: Why do people assume the balls are juiced and not the players? The same “the balls are juiced” narrative happened in the 90s. Are there some actual studies on the balls being different that I’m not aware of?
Keith Law: Yes. The Ringer and 538 both ran articles on this.

Andy: Apparently the Orioles are not planning on trading Machado before next season.
Keith Law: This film doesn’t end well for them.

addoeh: You’ll get a lot of questions in the coming weeks about “clutch”. But, on a 20-80 scale, how are your manual transmission operation skills?
Keith Law: Zero. Never learned.

Don: You mentioned on the pod with Buster that you rarely take your daughter to games. Is she into baseball at all? If not, as a parent is it a bit of a let down in anyway that she’s not into something you are passionate about? (Not that you are disappointed in her for not caring, just that she doesn’t care for something that means a lot to you)
Keith Law: She’s not really into it, and she doesn’t have the attention span for any sporting event, really. We have lots of other things we can share, though; she loves games and we cook together often now. She shaped the gargagnelli (pasta) I posted to Instagram last week.

Drew: I’m seriously not trying to be smart, just curious–I know there’s no proof of Creation, but is there proof of evolution? I’ve never read The Origin of Species, but isn’t it all just theory compiled from observation? Any good references on the subject?
Keith Law: Yes, there is proof. Bill Nye’s Undeniable is a good layperson’s read on the topic. Also, if you understand how antibiotic resistance forms in bacteria, that’s evolution happening before your eyes.

Dallas: Miles Mikolas in 60 starts in Japan has a 2.12 era with 411ip, 367k, 66bb. He has been an ace for Yomiuri. He is a free agent after the season; how would you value him coming back?
Keith Law: Probably about how I valued him before he left for Japan (assuming nothing substantial has changed about him – but I haven’t looked into him at all yet).

Tom: Do you think Justin Upton will opt out of his deal at the end of the season? Do you think the Angels should hope he doesn’t? Having this Upton for a least a couple of seasons would be nice.
Keith Law: I think he will – and the Angels are probably fine either way, really. It’s not a bad deal for them if he stays, but it’s not super team-friendly either.

Ben: How do you respond to those who think adding additional netting to help prevent injuries sustained from foul balls is adding to the pussification of baseball, and how parents aren’t looking out for their kids or this would have been prevented, and everyone should be alert 100% of the time, blah blah blah?
Keith Law: With derision.

Sean: How important is home field advantage in October?
Keith Law: I think it’s marginally important – there’s a slight but significant advantage in baseball to HFA, enough that you want it, not enough to, say, overwork a pitcher to get it.

Steve: Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter will be ____ in 2018.
Keith Law: Frenemies.

JR: If Colin Kaepernick was a 4/5 SP for and kneeled for national anthem before baseball games, would MLB freeze him out the way the NFL has, or would an MLB team sign him?
Keith Law: Josh Lueke found work. I’m thinking Kaep would get signed in MLB. I am thoroughly enjoying the people claiming the NFL’s ratings are down because a few players are kneeling, though. The delusions run deep.

Joe: Keith, DJ Stewart had a good statistical season. Did he improve his prospect standing?
Keith Law: He didn’t really, though. He wasn’t young for AA, and the bar is pretty high for a no-position bat.

Brent: Do you think Seth Beer’s bat will play well enough to make him a high 1st round pick?
Keith Law: Probably. Has to put up another big statistical year, but he’s done that before.

addoeh: What is Mike Montgomery going into next year? A decent #5? A long reliever?
Keith Law: I like him a lot better as a long reliever.

Pat D: Keith, I put “controversial” in quotes because I think controversy is in the eye of the beholder a lot of times. Full disclosure, I despise Schilling, and had no problem with what Hill said, so that’s probably why I can’t make that point. But I have seen others writing that online, and not just trolls.
Keith Law: Creating a hostile work environment by, for example, making racist or transphobic comments, is not “controversial.” It can get you fired, and it can get your employer sued. The EEOC even has a page dedicated to harassment, which includes “offensive jokes, slurs, epithets … offensive pictures.”

Brian: Does Forrest Whitley see the majors in 2018?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t be shocked at all.

CJ: I seem to remember you are an Agatha Christie fan. Any interest in the movie adaptation of Murder on the Orient Express? I tend to think her books don’t necessarily translate well to movies.
Keith Law: I’ll wait and see the reviews, but that book in particular seems like it won’t do well on film.

Darren: Do you believe MLB has to change the baseball back to previous specifications and provide details in the off season of any new changes to the baseball? Or can they go into next season with more changes, not inform the public, and escape with no blame?
Keith Law: There’s no accountability on this – they don’t have to do anything. However, I think the health of the game is going to require them to eventually calm down the ball and raise the bottom of the strike zone (which someone – Hardball Times? – wrote recently has already happened a little bit in 2017).

Nick: Is there anyone from the 2017 draft that has exceeding your expectations so far or is it too early for that?
Keith Law: Too early.

Scott: Duplantier’s season was incredible but do his skills match the stat line? Can he be a front end starter?
Keith Law: It’s not front-end stuff at all; he spent way too much time in low-A even though he was too old/advanced for that level. He is a legit prospect as a starter, but not the kind of starter the stat line might imply.

Tracy: One more book question: Have you considered uploading your entire catalog of all the books you’ve read to a site like LibraryThing.com?
Keith Law: Nah, I just blog about them. I do keep a list for myself, though, which comes in very handy when I’m standing in a used bookstore, looking at Wodehouse or Christie or Greene titles, and can’t remember if I’ve read the one in my hand before.

Harold : Have Fulmer or Lopez done anything to make you more optimistic about either one sticking as a starter?
Keith Law: Not really.

Ghost of Connie Mack: Obviously A’s fans are losing their minds over Olson’s homer binge. While nice, power has never been the question with him. The question has been and will be on the contact and bat speed. Have you seen anything from him that leads you to believe those issues have been improved and he can reach his ceiling?
Keith Law: No, I think he’s a low-average, moderate-OBP, power guy who probably ends up a DH, and can be a solid regular there if the contact rate works out, with a decent chance he’s less than that.

Brian: Thoughts on Gohara? Seems like he could REALLY benefit from developing his changeup, but overall I’m encouraged. I guess I have two questions – how important do you think a 3rd pitch is for him? And how likely do you think he can develop a passable one?
Keith Law: Third pitch definitely important, although his slider is so hard he can work it like a cutter and get some RHB out with it. I do think he’s a starter, chance to be a very good one, but I don’t think i want to buy call options on his career post age-30 or so with that waistline.

Brian: If you were the Phillies would you look to trade Cesar Hernandez in the offseason for pitching or look to move Scott Kingery?
Keith Law: Make room for Kingery. He’s a stud.

mike: Other than Potter and LOTR are there any high fantasy series’ you’ve read that you rec’d for adults
Keith Law: The Magicians trilogy, by Lev Grossman. Also, not a series, but Jonathan Strange & Mr. Norrell by Susanna Clarke is a top 20 novel all-time for me, and at 1000 pages it’s as long as a series. (The BBC miniseries was fantastic too, especially the casting of the two leads and of the man with the thistledown hair.)

Mike: Please rank the top contenders for Bryce Harper when he hits free agency next winter. Please do the same for Manny Machado.
Keith Law: All of them? I mean, any team with the cash should be interested.

Gary: Why did Forrest Whitley fall to Houston in the draft? Were there concerns that made him fall there or was it the price tag?
Keith Law: He didn’t “fall.” He went in the teens, about where he was expected to go.

Josh: Bogaerts has to be injured, right?
Keith Law: Alex Speier came on the BBTN podcast when I was hosting and said X has been dealing with two hand injuries.

Anonymous: Thoughts on Joc Pederson?
Keith Law: Change of scenery candidate. Has ability, has not converted it, don’t think he’s gotten on well with the staff in LA either.

Danny: How unusual is it for a guy like Severino to develop a plus slider out of nowhere?
Keith Law: I think it’s not unusual, but I have no good sense of how to predict which guy will take a pitch from a 4 to a 6 (or a 7 – that’s probably a 7 slider). Aaron Nola had a fringe CH, now it’s probably close to a 6. If you just bet on athletic guys with good arms, you’ll probably capture all the “new plus pitch” guys, but you’ll also get a lot of others in your net you didn’t want.

Bob: You mentioned cooking with your daughter…. do you and your family have a favorite “weeknight” meal you enjoy cooking?
Keith Law: She likes everything but knife work. I’ve made breaded/fried chicken cutlets, and she’ll do all the steps after I’ve cut the meat. She loves to roll out dough, too, whether for pasta, pizza, tortillas, or bread.

Biscuit: Noticed the scouting reports on Nola and Darvish…would you say it is more fun to scout major leaguer stars or budding minor league prospects? I think of it like mining a rough diamond (exhilarating because of the potential) versus viewing the final gemstone product (admirable in its beauty). That parallel only works if you actually value shiny stones but feel free to apply a corollary as you see fit.
Keith Law: Much more interesting to watch kids and mull over what they do well, what they need to improve, and how that improvement might come about. Darvish did not excite me. Watching the Phillies’ young guys was way more interesting.

Kevin: I know I am late to the question. But why don’t you do chats on ESPN.com anymore?
Keith Law: ESPN ended chats in August of … holy cow, 2015. I can’t believe I’ve been chatting here for two years.

Kevin: I love your taste in board games and your ranking lists. I’m going on a flight tomorrow, any new/current favorite mobile/iOS board game apps?
Keith Law: I reviewed Through the Ages the other day, have been playing Alhambra a bit (although I had a glitch the other day), still would go back to my old favorites like Carcassonne, Agricola, Caylus, Ticket to Ride, etc.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you as always for all of your questions and for reading. I should be back next Thursday for another chat as well. Enjoy your weekends.

The Little Paris Bookshop.

Nina George’s novel The Little Paris Bookshop, originally published in German as Das Lavendelzimmer (“The Lavender Room”), was a global bestseller shortly after its 2013 release and has been translated into over 30 languages. (Her website says “335 languages,” but I’m going to assume that’s a typo.) It’s … fine. It’s better than most popular fiction, certainly, and George infuses the work with her own expansive literary knowledge, but for a book that’s been marketed and reviewed as an inspiring, life-affirming sort of story, much of the plot itself left me rather cold.

Monsieur Jean Perdu runs a quaint bookshop on a little boat that’s moored in the Seine in Paris, from which he dispenses books like medicine, ‘reading’ his customers’ needs and diagnosing the proper books to treat what ails them. Of course, the one person he can’t help is himself; he’s been mooning over his lost love for twenty years, after she left him without warning to return to her husband, leaving just one letter that he never opened because if he had there wouldn’t be much of a story here. A circumstance occurs in the form of a new neighbor in his apartment building, a woman who’s just been thrown over by her husband, whom Perdu helps with a book and some furniture, and who ends up opening the letter and thus opening the rest of the story, in which Perdu, a young, bestselling author with writer’s block named Max, and a few stray eccentrics they pick up along the way set sail for the south of France to get the answer to the twenty-year mystery of Perdu’s paramour.

This book could have gone very, very wrong, but George at least avoids the most hackneyed or sentimental tricks of popular fiction – she has Perdu discover early in the book that his former lover died shortly after leaving him, to pick one ending I was afraid we’d get, and if you get the sense that Max might be Perdu’s son, as I did at one point, he’s not. The ending is a little sappy, and frankly not that believable given what we know of the two main characters; there’s also an absurdly coincidental answer to Perdu’s secondary quest, the search for the actual identity of the author of one of his favorite novels. Max is also a stock character, a literary wunderkind (and, apparently, a handsome devil) who’s stymied by the success of his first book and can’t seem to get started on his second one, only, of course, to find his true or second calling in the course of their sojourn down the river.

Perdu is at least the novel’s one credible, three-dimensional character, more than anything else for the way George portrays his grief. Perdu’s life outside of his work stopped when his lover left him, and if we can overlook the absurdity that he’d refuse to open the letter (but, say, would trash his furniture in despair), his arrested development after that point is a thoughtful depiction of someone who just can’t get over the death, or at least in this case the disappearance from his life, of a loved one. Telling the reader “you have to continue to live your life” as an answer to grief isn’t exactly profound, but the way that George incorporates Perdu’s knowledge of literary fiction, mostly real books, is novel (no pun intended) and gave the book a level of interest for me that elevated it above most popular fiction I’ve encountered. George didn’t stick the landing, but she didn’t flub it, either.

Next up: Just about done with Margaret Ayer Barnes’ Years of Grace.