→ February 27, 2018
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Abalone.

Abalone is an abstract two-player game from 1987 that looks a bit like Chinese checkers but plays with much more complexity thanks to a short list of very narrowly defined potential moves. It got a digital release late in 2017 from Asmodee Digital that offers a variety of starting boards and has a mostly superb interface, although they might need a harder AI player for a future update. It’s available on iTunes and Google Play for $2.99.

Abalone is played on the central, shared area of a Chinese checkers board, a hexagon with nine rows ranging from five spaces on the exterior to nine spaces in the center row. Each player begins with 14 marbles, black or white, and must try to push six of the opposing player’s marbles off the board to win. The potential moves are:

1. You can move one marble one space in any direction, as long as the space is empty.
2. You can move two or three marbles in a line forward, as a unit, one space. If the next space has an opposing marble in it, but your group has more marbles than there are opposing marbles in the same row, then you can push them one space backwards. So you can move two marbles, one behind the other, to push a solitary opposing marble into an empty space beyond it, and you can move three marbles in a line to push two opposing marbles.
3. You can move two or three adjacent marbles on the perpendicular, rather than moving them in a line (moving them like you’re sweeping them with your hand), but can’t push any opposing marbles that way.

The game requires players to consider offense and defense; setting traps is a huge part of Abalone, and avoiding them by setting up lines of three marbles when you can is just as important, but with 14 marbles (a number that will decline as the game progresses), that’s not easy to do. You have to watch the edges to make sure you don’t lose sight of a marble that’s in danger of being pushed off the board on the next turn.

The easy AI player is really just a tutorial/newbie opponent, while the hard player is good but I think a bit too beatable. The hardest AI will take advantage of pieces on the edge, but its trap-setting capabilities are a little weak, and I have seen it fail to take the occasional risk-free ejection. (Sometimes you can eject an opponent’s marble, but doing so always puts your marble in the vacated space, and thus you might be giving your opponent an easy push.) I’ve lost to the hard AI player, but I beat it more often than I lose, needing as few as 63 moves to win and as many as 199.


The nicest starting arrangement in Abalone.

The app comes with more than 30 starting boards; some players think the official, classic board is “solved,” or at least confers too much of an advantage to the start player, although given the sheer number of moves required, the game being “solved” would still require you to memorize a ridiculous number of steps. There’s also a chance of a stalemate, especially with the AI players, where both players end up repeating a loop of steps indefinitely, until one player chooses to make a more aggressive move instead. I do think the various “Daisy” boards – the app includes four – present a better challenge, reducing the chances of a temporary stalemate, and as I quickly learned, they also give the start player a great opportunity to do something very stupid at the beginning.

I’ve never been a huge fan of chess, because the game requires more study and more forward planning than I like in a game – it’s a serious intellectual challenge, but begins to feel more like work, and mapping out the potential scenarios creates a fairly large decision tree in my head. (I’m also not great at discarding moves – I think the best chess players can prune those trees because they know their opponents will make a specific move in response to each of their own moves.) Abalone has that chess-lite feel that I love in games – yes, there are lots of potential moves, but the tree is limited because you only have one piece type, and it’s definitely easier to figure out your opponent’s likely next move.


I won this game rather nicely.

The app is very easy to play even on the small screen, and lets you undo any move before confirming it. You can also see the last move with a rewind feature that’s very useful, and at game end it tells you how many moves the game took and replays the entire thing from the beginning. One minor quibble is that when you leave the app for a while, resuming a game requires you to enter the menu to start a new game and then hit the Pause button in the upper right, the only thing in the app that felt non-intuitive. The tutorial is also excellent.

Abalone was briefly on sale for 99 cents, and I imagine it will be again at some point; I’ve found it quite addictive even as I’ve gotten to be good enough to beat the AI more than half the time (which I interpret as a weak AI, not that I’m some skilled player). It offers a pass and play mode as well as networked play, which might be the better option if you’re looking for a more serious challenge instead of a minor brain teaser. I’ve gotten more than my money’s worth from it already.

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→ February 26, 2018
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Barrayar.

My latest post for Insiders covers draft prospects Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar, plus notes on some other players at Florida and Miami.

I came into Lois McMaster Bujold’s Vor novels out of order, starting with The Vor Game, then Mirror Dance, and just now getting to the second book in the series and the one that introduces the star character of Miles Vorkosigan, Barrayar. Miles starts the novel as an embryo and ends it as a troublemaking toddler, so he’s not a central character, but the story of how he ended up with the bone disorder that came to dictate much of the path of his life – along with his friendship with the Emperor – is at the heart of this quick, enjoyable novel.

The protagonist here is Miles’s mother, Lady Cordelia (Naismith) Vorkosigan, herself a soldier of sorts from Beta Colony, now married to Lord Aral Vorkosigan, her former enemy in battle, and living on the planet Barrayar. Aral has become regent on the death of the old Emperor, with the successor Georg still in single digits. A coup attempt ensues, driving the couple into exile, but leaving the still undeveloped fetus that will become Miles growing in a “uterine replicator” in the capital city, under guard, when they’re forced into hiding. The main thrust of the book revolves around Cordelia’s flight and daredevil attempt to infiltrate the city to grab the replicator and rescue the fetus whom Aral’s father has already promised to reject as his grandson.

This was the first of three Vor novels to win the Hugo – McMaster Bujold also won for a fantasy novel, Paladin of Souls, that didn’t grab me like these books have – and the only one that doesn’t have the rascal Miles at its heart. Without him to cause confusion and delay (and eventually save the day), the book is a lot less funny, and instead gives us the very serious Cordelia as its hero, with Aral present and supportive, but unusually willing for a Barrayaran husband to respect the wishes and opinions of his wife. Instead, it’s a straight adventure/rescue novel with a feminist bent – granted, that’s also quite unusual in the sci-fi world, but now that I’ve read all but 5 of the Hugo winners (and at least one by every author to win it), I feel confident in asserting that the winning books authored by women are both better overall and include better, more fully-realized female or non-male characters. It’s not even close.

Cordelia doesn’t get a lot of time to completely grow as a character in this brief book, which is quite a bit shorter than the other two Vor novels I’ve read, but she’s well-rounded from the start: Strong, assertive, self-doubting, acutely conscious of her outside status, completely dedicated to her family, struggling with fealty to her husband’s position in society and desire to have him safe at home. Reading this first would have probably given me more insight into her cameos in later novels; she’s obviously a critical influence on Miles’ development, but here we see exactly what she had to do to rescue him and to what lengths she was willing to go.

The book also introduced a number of characters who appear later in the series, although there’s one book before this one, Shards of Honor, that includes the battle where Aral and Cordelia meet, where I assume some of the other characters (Illyan, Kothari) also appear. I’ll probably start there now that I’ve read the winners in the series and go forward in chronological order. If you’re interested in reading just one or two of these books, though, I’d recommend something with Miles in it, because he’s much more fun than his parents.

Next up: I just finished the second Hugo winner, The Forever Machine, which lived up to its reputation as the worst novel to win the award.

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→ February 25, 2018
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The Girl Without Hands.

When the Oscar nominations were announced a few weeks ago, I tweeted an image showing all of the eligible films for the 2017 Academy Award for Best Animated Feature, and showed that Boss Baby, which scored one of the nominations, wasn’t close to a top five film in the group in the estimation of critics. At that point, though, I hadn’t seen any of the films ranked above it (using Rotten Tomatoes scores, a crude measure but useful for our purposes here). I can now say I have seen one film that was eligible for the award, and was #BetterThanBossBaby: The Girl Without Hands (La jeune fille sans mains), a stunningly animated version of the Grimm Brothers folk tale about a girl … um, with no hands. It’s available to rent on iTunes and amazon.

The girl, never named, suffers for her father’s avarice; when the film starts, the impoverished miller strikes a deal with the devil to give him “what’s behind his mill” in exchange for wealth, not realizing that his daughter was in the apple tree behind the mill at that moment. Eventually, the man’s refusal to give up the river of gold that is now running his mill costs him everything, including his daughter, whose hands he lops off at the devil’s insistence. She flees, eventually finding a prince who marries her, only to have the devil reappear and try once again to claim her for his part of the original bargain.

This adaptation, first released in France in 2016, was entirely written, directed, and animated by Sébastien Laudenbach, marking his first feature film. The animation style is like nothing I’ve seen before in an animated feature – the outlines of characters and objects are rough, and the colored portions inside those lines don’t always move in sync with the outlines, which is obviously by design and gives the entire film a ghostly atmosphere. The colors are bold and vibrant, with less shading than we expect now from animated films that try to look three-dimensional. The film is mostly faithful to the original tale, which has many supernatural elements, and Laudenbach’s non-realistic approach fits it perfectly.

The Grimms’ story is a rather blunt, grotesque fable about the corrupting power of greed, with just one character of any import, the girl, voiced beautifully by French actress Anaïs Demoustier. Her faith in her father is not rewarded, and her strength in the face of the tragedy is part of the story’s moral (which sort of pounds you over the head). Laudenbach and Demoustier at least manage to humanize her, even though his fidelity to the story limits how much depth the character can get on screen, and he altered the ending slightly to tie the restoration of her hands to something more specific than the Grimms offered. She’s an obvious object for pity; Laudenbach and Demoustier make her more than just pathetic.

It’s the imagery that makes this movie, though; Laudenbach gives the film a tactile look, like we’re watching images flicker on canvas or paper. He plays little visual games with his characters as well, having them move as if they’re aware that their outlines and their flesh aren’t quite together, such as having a character hide in what looks like its own shadow at one moment. It’s just such a feast for the eyes, in a way that’s completely novel in the era of hyper realistic CG animation, and it’s thoroughly refreshing.

As for why this was overlooked by the Academy … I have no idea. It ran at Cannes in the ACID program, a simultaneous screening during that city’s film festival, in 2016. It won the grand prize in the Tokyo Anime Awards last year. It’s at 100% fresh with 19 reviews, all of which were written in 2017. I can’t believe voters saw this and still went with Boss Baby; hell, The Red Turtle got a nomination last year and was just as obscure. Watch The Girl Without Hands and I think you’ll agree its omission is a mistake.

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→ February 24, 2018
→ By

Stick to baseball, 2/24/18.

I’m pretty stoked about the game I reviewed this week for Paste: Charterstone, a competitive, legacy game that incorporates so many great things from other games, plays in just an hour, and changes the board, cards, and rules in each play.

I had Insider posts on this week’s three-team trade (AZ, NYY, TB) and the JD Martinez signing. I held a Klawchat on Thursday.

Smart Baseball comes out in paperback on March 13th! More details on the HarperCollins page for the book. List price is $16.99 but I imagine it’ll be less than that at many retailers.

And now, the links…

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→ February 23, 2018
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Strong Island.

Strong Island, available on Netflix, is another of the five nominees for Best Documentary Feature at this year’s Oscars and is one of the two that I think was somewhat widely known before the nominations came out, along with Last Men in Aleppo. Ostensibly the story of a murder that took place on Long Island in 1992 for which no one was ever charged, it’s much more the story of that murder’s effect on the victim’s family over the 23 years between when it happened and when the filmmaker, the victim’s brother*, began the project.

William Ford, Jr., was 24 in April of 1992, trying to pass the physical requirements for a job as a corrections officer, the oldest of three children of Barbara and William Sr. His girlfriend’s car had been hit by 19-year-old Mark Reilly, a white man working at a nearby garage (rumored to be a chop shop), who offered to fix the car for free if they didn’t call the cops to report the incident. Ford and his girlfriend, both African-American, agreed, but when Reilly took too long to repair the car and then swears at Ford’s mother, he returned to the garage to confront him, only to have Reilly shoot him with a .22, killing him. The grand jury returned a no true bill against Reilly, choosing to believe it was self-defense even though Ford was unarmed. Ford’s mother claims in the film that the grand jury was all white, and many members weren’t paying attention during witness testimony.

Yance (pronounced “YAN-see”), the middle child in the family, directed this documentary and appears in it frequently along with his* younger sister, his brother’s best friend (who was there when the murder occurred), his mother, and a good college friend of William Jr.’s. Not appearing, however, are anyone connected with the investigation; the ADA at the time declines to comment at all, even on the phone, while the investigating officer does comment in a recorded interview but does not appear. Neither Reilly nor the other white man at the garage that night appear, and Ford himself has been very clear that he does not want to give Reilly any “space” in the film. The murder is described, but it is an inflection point in the broader story, not a mystery to be solved. The reveal, such as it is, is minor to the viewers but major to Yance.

* Yance Ford identifies as queer in the film, but is referred to everywhere within the film as a daughter, a sister, etc. Apparently since filming ended, he has come out as trans, and most subsequent media coverage uses male pronouns (without, from what I can see, acknowledging the disparity). I’m just following their lead, but I may be wrong.

It is, therefore, a somewhat frustrating documentary, because the topic is so insular. A happy nuclear family was blown up by the murder of their son and oldest child, after which grief starts to tear apart the fabric holding them together. The father dies not long after the murder, long enough ago that he’s only in the film on video once, in archival footage. But their grief is quiet and private, and I didn’t get an emotional connection to the tragedy the way I think Yance might have intended. Their loss is huge, but William, Jr., is a figurative ghost in the film. And the racial aspects, while undeniable – if you don’t think a black man would have been indicted for the same crime with a white victim, I don’t know what to tell you – are also somewhat academic here. There’s nothing here to prove racial bias in the investigation or grand jury proceedings. Instead, Strong Island feels a bit like reading someone else’s diary – like I’m intruding on the grief of a family I don’t even know, and the cascading tragedies of the story are too distant to get the emotional response the writer would have had himself.

That said, it wouldn’t shock me in the least if this won the Oscar, given the racial politics of the film and high profile right now of Black Lives Matter and similar movements. It’s not the best documentary this year, but its subject matter might resonate more with voters than topics like Syria, doping, or the financial crisis.

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→ February 22, 2018
→ By

Klawchat 2/22/18.

New content – I reviewed the amazing competitive legacy game Charterstone for Paste, and wrote up the three-team Souza-Drury trade and JD Martinez signing for Insiders.

Keith Law: Don’t let the walls cave in on you. Klawchat.

addoeh: Please rank these common reactions to dad jokes. A) Subject turns to you and approves of joke. B) Subject turns to you and disapproves of joke. C) Subject turns away from you trying to stifle laughter.
Keith Law: Everyone laughs. Some people just try to hide it.

Scott: What’s a proper punishment for these disgusting conspiracy theorists? Have them fired from their jobs? Exiled? Beheaded in the town square? I mean who wouldn’t blindly trust our outstanding corporate media and government despite a history of false flags, CIA black ops, and programs like Mockingbird?
Keith Law: Fired works for me. And banned from social media. False flag operations that took place a century ago aren’t relevant to claims that there’s a network of crisis actors paid by a specific Hungarian Jew with the complicity of all media … you idiot.

Ray Grace: I just read a fascinating article on the Athletic about Alex Wood going full time out of the stretch instead of the windup, in part because Strausburg had so much success doing that last year. I’m curious of your thoughts on that.
Keith Law: Whatever he’s comfortable with. Dude still really has no history of staying healthy as a starter.

Seb: Keith – I understand Austin Beck is kind of a lottery ticket for the A’s and why he wasn’t included in most of the reputable Top 100 lists. However, he was the 6th pick less than 9 months ago. What do you see as his ceiling? Thanks and keep up the good work!
Keith Law: Ceiling is at least an above-average regular in an outfield corner … I guess CF is possible given his speed, but he’s a long way off. The problem for him if you’re placing value on him today is probability. There’s a high risk he never gets out of AA, given where his approach is right now and what he did last summer.

Mike: I was looking at various minor league MVPs and curious if you had any opinions about either Darick Hall or Fernando Kelli. There’s almost nothing out there about Kelli.
Keith Law: That’s because Kelli hasn’t played in the US yet. Hall was 21 in low-A, not a prospect, older guy with power and poor plate discipline.

Albert: Hey KLaw, love your chats. Rangers questions, do you think Gallo takes a huge step forward this year, perhaps even into Aaron Judge territory?
Keith Law: I’m a Gallo fan, have been since he was in HS, but I think forecasting him into Aaron Judge territory would be purely wishful thinking.

Robert: Keith, what are your thoughts on blaming school shootings (or any shooting) on “mental illness”? I’m in favor of stronger gun restrictions for those with actual mental illness, but this debate is going to intentionally or unintentionally stigmatize people experiencing mental illness.
Keith Law: That’s totally what it is – it takes advantage of the general public ignorance about “mental illness,” particularly that it is all one thing rather than a broad spectrum of disorders from depression and anxiety to sociopathy, psychopathy, and antisocial or narcissistic personality disorders. And it diverts attention from the actual issue at hand, which is that no civilian has any valid reason to own a semiautomatic weapon.

Dr. Bob: Good afternoon, Keith. You saw Derrick Goold’s article about Mike Maddux wanting Cards’ pitchers to elevate the ball some as a way to counteract the hitting trend to lift the ball. What do you think?
Keith Law: If that’s a one size fits all approach, then I don’t like it. Maddux has a mixed track record with young arms from his last few stops, and that approach is one reason for it. You can elevate the ball if you throw particularly hard, or have a high spin rate on your four seamer, or have deception, or have plus command. Many big league starters don’t have those things, or maybe have just one, and having them try to attack the top of the zone is just going to mean more fly balls.

Tony P (@disguyyy): (take 2) Hi Keith, Do you find yourself going down rabbit-holes during times like the last week? It’s been so hard to stay focused when I see misinformation or something I feel responsible for correcting then next thing I know, I’ve done 20 minutes of research just to debunk some idiot on the internet. How do you reel yourself back or avoid it in the first place?
Keith Law: That’s generally time to walk away from the computer. I’m particularly prone to clicking on one thing and waking up 20 minutes later having read four articles and learned a lot but accomplished none of what I sat down to do.

dave: I’ve never seen this simple rule change discussed to improve pace-of-play and shorten games. What if a pitcher had to face a minimum of two batters instead of just one?
Keith Law: That’s been discussed at least since the 1990s. Doesn’t seem to be any desire to do that within MLB.

Manny: Where should devers bat in the Sox line up. Top third, middle third? Does lefty, righty alternation really matter much?
Keith Law: L/R alternation matters for late in games; you don’t want a string of LHB with platoon issues whom opposing lefties can carve up. I don’t know their lineup offhand to say where Devers should bat – he’s probably not among their top 3 hitters so I guess below that. As long as he plays every day, I’m happy.

Rob (Gilbert): I think I remember you saying that you started playing Pandemic: Legacy. How many characters did you use (or did it vary), and did you ever finish?
Keith Law: We didn’t finish S1, just because we keep getting other games (for me to review) and we got caught up in Charterstone lately.

Sandy Kazmir: Spin me tales about why I shouldn’t hate everything upon learning my favorite baseball player will miss most of the next two years.
Keith Law: Honeywell’s not officially out for 18 months … but yeah, doesn’t sound good, and I’d be pretty damn disappointed too with him right on the cusp of a debut. If he’s done, then I guess Andriese becomes the 4th starter and Banda starts in the pen?
Keith Law: Sorry I don’t have something uplifting to tell you, though.

Adam Doctolero: What would you say your core organizational philosophy would be in regards to drafting/player development?
Keith Law: Doubt that’s anything I could distill into a short chat answer. That’s probably a three-page essay.

Chris: I’m still intrigued by Gavin Cecchini. Feel like he has utility player potential at 3B, 2B and OF (hasn’t played out there yet but I don’t see why not give it a try as he’s stuck in AAA). What are your thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Can’t throw enough for 3b.

Jason: Keith…is there an obvious move for StL to make? Or are they better off at this point to see what they have in rotation and bullpen and adjust from there?
Keith Law: yes, I think going after a bigger starter would help. They have OF and P surplus in the upper minors. I like Flaherty a ton, but they can upgrade on that spot for this year and let him start in AAA for a few months.

Jon: What are you looking for for Max Kepler this year? Assume he will get some good run in Minnesota?
Keith Law: Not quite sure what you’re asking in the second question. I expect continued improvement at the plate – he’s always developed on a delayed sort of schedule, unsurprising for someone who grew up in a non-baseball country.

Zach: What to do with AJ Reed? Has to be a trade right? Does his bat still project as a quality hitter?
Keith Law: I’d take a flier on him. Actually thought he’d be a good fit for Tampa Bay, although Cron probably blocks him now.

Nick: Did the Yankees give up too much for Drury? Two top 20 prospects from a great system seems like a lot to me.
Keith Law: It’s not a lot. Even that framing, which I think underestimates the gap between their top 10-12 and the rest of their top 20, doesn’t sound bad … how many teams really have 20 good prospects? Maybe two right now, if that?

John: I read Brian Kenny’s Ahead of the Curve. Does Smart Baseball offer any different takes or more of the same?
Keith Law: It’s not the same, since I wrote it.

Jack: Would the Phillies be smart to sign Arrieta?
Keith Law: No.

Chris: Should more positionless-AAAA bat-only types be tried at catcher? I saw Mets were giving Philip Evans reps there and think it’s a low-risk, high reward move.
Keith Law: I vaguely remember him trying to catch years ago, maybe as an amateur? Kind of a Tony Wolters thing? You have to have the right body, arm strength, and some athleticism to do it. And it’s a ton of work.

Sean: Correct move for Detroit to go move Castellanos away from the hot corner to make room for Candelario? Not like he’s a stud defensively either. But both seem to be able to hit.
Keith Law: Yeah, I think it’s time to turn the page permanently on Castellanos at third.

Jay: If you know, what was the drug Whitley was suspended for, and why all the secrecy?
Keith Law: I think I know, but I don’t know with enough sourcing to report. I think the secrecy is inadvertent – not a steroid, not weed or coke or something worse, so it doesn’t fit neatly in MLB’s buckets. (It was caffeine.)

Larry: I was a little disappointed in your Brady Singer answer last week. Did you get an update from when you last saw him in April of last year? Is the AA and stuff improved?
Keith Law: Disappointed in Singer? He’s had the same arm action since high school and it hasn’t changed. I’ll see him tomorrow night at Miami and Kowar Saturday.

Jason: Regarding StL outfielder prospects…which would you prefer to keep and which would you prefer to trade?
Keith Law: Not counting the big leaguers? I don’t think they have anyone I would HAVE to keep. If you’re getting someone like Archer, you make any of them available. I happen to love Mercado and think there’s more growth there, but I would trade him for sure in the right deal. I have said I think O’Neill is the most blocked, and thus the first name I’d make available.

Luke: Are the Rays really that much worse off than they were a week ago?
Keith Law: I assume this excludes Honeywell? I agree. Maybe two wins worse. Where they sit, that’s essentially zero.

JC: It won’t push them into a contender per se, but considering the Braves are projected to be sub replacement level in the corner OF not including Acuna, should they at least check in on Dickerson? It would also make Acuna not on the OD roster slightly less indefensible
Keith Law: If you can get Dickerson essentially for free, then yes, definitely.

Machado : How do you feel about macahdo moving to SS, doesn’t he project better as a 3B? And do you think he will live back to 3B
Keith Law: Projects very well at SS. I never thought he’d have to move – he moved for Hardy.

Chris: Sandy hinted that John Ricco could be his successor. Mets fans don’t know much about him. Thoughts? (Could also easily see Omar Minaya coup with how dysfunctional they’re run)
Keith Law: I know John a little, but have no experience working with him, and my understanding is he’s worked mostly with the major-league side of operations there so I don’t know a lot of people who’ve worked closely with him either.

Eric: Hi Keith,
What do you think the ceiling for Hudson Potts is this year? He really found his power in the 2nd half of 2017. Can he keep it going and crack the top 100?
Keith Law: Plate discipline/pitch recognition is (are?) his main flaw. Still just 19 this year, though.

Evan: Hey Klaw, got an Anova for Christmas and absolutely loving it. I know you’ve been off of the red meat, but what’s your favorite use for it? Pork chops, chicken thighs? Any special recipes? Thanks for the chats!
Keith Law: Chicken thighs, five hours at 165, then sear off to crisp the skin. I call it the Chris Crawford special: little bit of chicken thighs and cold beer on a Friday night.

Jonathan: Water: Sparkling or Still?
Keith Law: Sparkling, please. (burp)

Nick: With the high washout rate of HS arms, would it be crazy for the Reds to consider moving Greene for a piece closer to the majors? I wouldn’t give him away but if he can be the centerpiece for someone like Chris Archer, for example, should the Reds pull the trigger?
Keith Law: Arms like his don’t come along very often. Some risks are worth taking because the payoff is so high even if the probability is low.

Jim: …not to mention this Administration removed restrictions on people with mental illnesses buying guns…
Keith Law: Please do mention that.

Sally Fan: How many “aces” are there in the majors? Is this a relatively stable number year to year? How much does this play in to evaluating “ace upside” in minor leaguers?
Keith Law: I have personally defined ‘ace’ during my career as someone who’d be the #1 starter in half or more of the rotations in the majors in a typical year. By definition, that would center around 15, some years a few more, some a few … fewer. I do not agree that there are 30 aces. There are 30 nominal #1s, but as the scout Abe Lincoln once said, if you call a dog’s tail a leg, it’s still a tail.

Jay: Thoughts on who came off the best/worst in last night’s town hall?
Keith Law: Didn’t watch.

John: Someone suffering from the broad catch-all “mental illness” is 5x-10x more likely to be the victim of a violent crime than to be the perpetrator depending on the study you look it. Its a red herring of an argument that people find way too compelling.
Keith Law: Analogous: Crazy evangelicals & bigots pushing trans bathroom bills, when trans people are almost 4 times more likely to be victims of violence … oh, wait, sorry, that’s 4 times more likely to be victims of POLICE violence. 47% of trans people will experience a sexual assault in their lifetimes. If there’s a trans person in a public bathroom and I walk in, I’m more worried for him, not for me or any children in the facility.

Jack: All your recent amateur scouting has got me thinking – do you believe there’s anybody on the planet that throws 100 MPH+ that you’ve never heard of before? Thanks!
Keith Law: With a baseball pitcher’s delivery? Doubt it. There are probably kids who can throw a rock or other object fairly hard, but 100 mph+ is a combination of a genetic gift and years of throwing.

Jon: Keith, why does it feel like the Florida teams aren’t getting decent returns in their tanking/rebuilding efforts? Is the playing field more level? Are the front offices of these two teams behind? Desperation?
Keith Law: Revenue bases are very low for both clubs.

Arin, d-town ca: Can Bryce Brentz be an everyday player for the Pirates?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: Too much swing and miss.

Luigi: All the commentary I’ve read about Tristen Lutz praises his power. What is the reputation on his hit tool? How good he can be?
Keith Law: His skill is extremely hard contact, which leads to power. It’s not sell-out, dead pull power. He can hit.

Jack: What should the Giants do if they’re in the cellar again come July 31?
Keith Law: Trade ’em all. And yes, I mean all, as painful as that would be.

Ben: So is everyone gonna just ignore the fact that Billy Graham was an antisemitic, anti-lgbt mysoginist?
Keith Law: Who abandoned his kids for long stretches and tried to convince his daughter not to divorce her philandering husband.

PJ: Between Max Fried and Luiz Gohara, who should I be more excited to see in our lovely taxpayer-funded park this year?
Keith Law: Eh, both are pretty fun in different ways.

WhiteSoxAndy: I heard about a rule being discussed on the Rich Eisen show in which teams can put any three players up to bat to start the 9th inning. This sounds like a really dumb idea. Is it?
Keith Law: It is indeed a really dumb idea. I don’t know where it originated.

Ron: Does the addition of Gomez change your evaluation of the Souza trade from the Rays’ perspective at all? The players are obviously not equivalent values by themselves, but does a year of Gomez at $4 mil+prospects turn this into something approaching a win for the Rays?
Keith Law: It’s good value for the Rays, yes. Doesn’t alter the question of whether they got sufficient return for Souza.

Amory Blaine: How good can Luis Castillo be?
Keith Law: Without a good breaking ball, 2017 is his ceiling.

John: Where would juan Pablo Martinez rank in your top 100 prospects?
Keith Law: Answered last week – he would not.

Seath: Im a veteran and I am currently looking at masters programs that is both practical but could open the door in case i want to pursue a behind the scenes career in MLB. I have an MPA now and i’m looking into an MS in Business Analytics (I had to take a Quantitative Analysis class in my MPA program and loved it). Would you recommend something in that area or something completely different?
Keith Law: Thank you for your service. I think you’re on the right track. Ability to work with big data and coding skills will play in multiple industries.

Chris: In your opinion, who is more likely to leave and sign with another team next winter: Harper or Machado?
Keith Law: Both.

Larry: If Alex Jackson isn’t workable behind the plate, is the bat enough to be an everyday corner OF?
Keith Law: Maybe. Odds under 50% but well above 0.

Logic: Keith, Regarding Vincent. It was many years ago now, in the 90’s when I went to Baltimore’s art museum to see an exhibit featuring Starry Night. I had no interest in art and knew nothing about it. I went because my girlfriend (love of my life) wanted to go, besides we could go to Fell’s Point later for some fun. When I saw the painting I was totally captivated. I couldn’t take my eyes off of it. It’s almost 3 dimensional. A wonderful experience that stills lives in me. If you get the opportunity, check it out.
Keith Law: I will, next time I’m down that way. I don’t think I would have been able to tell you anything about Van Gogh’s style before seeing Loving Vincent, but after the film I realized he does things I can appreciate even as an art philistine.

George: I just thought of this the other day, as I recently had a baby girl and was thinking about vaccinations; if they cause Autism–which they don’t–wouldn’t the numbers of boys to girls with Autism be fairly equal, not extremely one-sided in boys who are affected?
Keith Law: Right. Also, unvaccinated kids get autism at the same rate as vaccinated kids.

Matt: These kids from Parkland are kicking ass and taking names
Keith Law: Indeed. I hope they can keep it going until November.

Daniel: How close is Luke Weaver to a real third pitch, and how good can he be if it’s just a show-me curve that he can throw for strikes?
Keith Law: Not close enough for me to call him a sure starter.

Roger: Concern that Ethan Hankins is already dealing with shoulder issues?
Keith Law: Supposedly just muscular. Of course it’s a concern but let’s see him get back on the mound before we get too alarmed.

Dutch: What are your thoughts on Alexander Canario? The KATOH projection system loves him but I can’t find a single long form article about him. Is this simply an example of KATOH’s weakness for scouting the statline?
Keith Law: DSL player. I don’t know enough about Katoh’s algorithm to comment, but I would question *any* system that tried to project major-league value based on DSL stats.

Brandon: Kolby Allard’s prospect ranking has been all over the place depending on the list you look at. Why are so many people torn on him? Is it his size?
Keith Law: Size and reduced velocity over the course of 2017. When I asked around this winter about him, my top 100, what other teams thought of Atlanta’s system, I got fairly consistent responses that he’d slipped and also been passed by several other arms in their system (like Wilson).

Bort: With Honeywell almost certainly out for 2018, doesn’t it make even more sense for the Rays to trade Chris Archer?
Keith Law: “Almost certainly?” Look, I get that he could have just blown out his elbow, but that statement is not accurate right now.

John: I’m curious about the Megan McArdle thing that you circulated earlier this week. Tried following the links, and couldn’t find anything she had necessarily done wrong. Do you have any insight? The accusation is that she made up a number, but the “proof” was her saying that it was in the middle of a hypothetical. If true, then that’s not wrong.
Keith Law: That was her ex post rationalization for it. She’s also written repeatedly about topics like health care reform without disclosing her numerous conflicts of interest. It was a terrible hire in the WaPo/NYT editorial pages’ race to the bottom.

Seth : what do you think drury’s potential is? everyone keeps saying he’s filled with “untapped potential” … what say you?
Keith Law: Low-OBP but high average with some pop, plays 2nd (poorly) and 3rd (more than adequately), everyday guy for some teams, eventually a good bench player for the Yanks.

M.D. Pepper : Hi Keith, reports from SB Nation noted that Jahmai Jones may be getting some time at second base, which Jahmai somewhat denied. Would it be of value for the Angels if he made that transition and could he be capable of doing so since he played the position in high school?
Keith Law: Not sure when he did that in HS … sure, it’ll raise his value, because I think in that system his odds of staying in CF are low given the presence of other CF like Marsh.

Adam: Even if the bat never comes around, is there still a chance for Javier Guerra to make the majors as a defensive replacement? Or is the bat currently that bad?
Keith Law: Bat hasn’t looked the same since the trade and medical issue. Not sure if it’s medication or something else, but he’s looked much slower at the plate.

CapePorpoise: I’m trying to understand your NYT subscription cancellation. Given the number of links you’ve given, I’m assuming you agree it’s still one of the best news organizations. Are one columnist’s views sufficient cause to require your action?
Keith Law: Not “one columnist,” and I think I made that fairly clear. This is Stephens and Douthat and Norton (since axed, but really, nice process, guys) and to a lesser extent brooks. It’s articles normalizing neo-Nazis and giving excessive voice to Trump voters. And they’ve run their share of pseudoscience claptrap too, like Danny Hakim’s well-reviled piece attacking GMOs contrary to all available science.

Mikey B: Rays just traded Dickerson to the Pirates. FYI.
Keith Law: Well there you have it.

Dr. Bob: Man, did you get hammered by Padres’ fans for stating the obvious about SD signing Hosmer. They should be able to see the same things that we all see. What do you think their motive was?
Keith Law: Plenty of rational Padres fans came out to support me, but the trolls are the loudest, unfortunately. It’s amusing to me how thoroughly a fan base can convince itself of a player’s intangibles even when they have had no direct contact with the player in his career.

Raj: Why do you think Matt Chapman was never mentioned as a top their prospect during his time in the minors? I understand the questions how his hit tool, but wouldn’t his above average glove and power neutralize the concerns about his hit tool?
Keith Law: No, not given the swing and miss rates.

Pat D: I’ve never come closer to telling people I like and respect to fuck off because of one issue than I have in the last week. I’m just so sick of the “evil people are going to do evil things” excuse while the person who says that engages in nothing but fallacies and false equivalences. Time to just cut off contact, right? Also, isn’t it sad to know you’ll never be a great patriot like Wayne LaPierre?
Keith Law: If we can identify evil people so easily, how about we just screen every would-be gun buyer for evil. If you’re evil, you don’t get a gun. Problem solved!

Anthony : Are you finally ready to say that Soroka has a higher ceiling or floor than Allard? You’ve said no to both back in September but now your rankings show different.
Keith Law: How dare I change my opinions on players. In the future, I’ll be sure to keep all rankings perfectly static.

Will in Vero: How did Dallas Baptist get so good?
Keith Law: Recruited very well locally, especially since they announced they were moving up to D1 maybe a decade ago (or longer? jeez).

Patrick: With Solak dealt it came out that the Yankees were pushing him with Frazier in their offer to Pitt for Cole. Do you think those 2 were a better offer than the 4 Pitt ultimately took from Houston?
Keith Law: I do not. I’m not a big Solak fan.

Brian: As a Phillies fan, the plight of Mark Appel and Mickey Moniak has me wondering: when top 5 guys end up being busts is there a commonality in terms of what scouts and people like yourself got wrong pre-draft? Is it about certain tools or focusing too much on one element of the evaluation, etc?
Keith Law: Don’t think you could find two players as different as those two. Moniak seemed at the time and seems still today like a bit of a money-saver option in a draft without a clear 1. Appel was the clear 1 that year, or at worst a great 2, and given what the Astros had available at the time he was a good pick.

Exit Velocity Proves I’m Good : Is there 25+ HR power in Josh Bell?
Keith Law: I believe there is, even without the juiced ball.

Josh in DC: I haven’t read your book, but I will eventually. Do you have any positive thoughts about so-called intangibles (say, leadership ability) in the book?
Keith Law: No, my book focuses on things that actually exist and that we can at least try to measure.

David: Honest question – would you turn down the opportunity to visit President Trump? I’ve thought about this a lot. Does meeting him CHANGE anything (for better or worse)? So would it be all that bad to meet him, just for the experience? Curious to hear your thoughts.
Keith Law: I probably would turn it down. I can’t see any good coming of it.

Chris: I know youre on hiatus from TC, but just a heads up the Volt Bros are on tonight…
Keith Law: Olympics tonight. I don’t control the remote even if I wanted to.

Matt: Keith, it seems like every year there’s a college pitcher I’ve never heard of who starts getting a ton of buzz as a top 5 pick. This year’s model appears to be Shane McLanahan. Aside from being small, what else could keep McLanahan from success in the pros?
Keith Law: I think that’s the biggest knock on him. He’s listed at 165, I think. That’s skinny.

John: I’m not a second amendment guy — in fact, I’ve never touched a gun in my life — but I disagree with you on guns vs. “mental illness.” The Virginia Tech rampage was done entirely with handguns. If there’s someone who has the psychological problems that would lead to one of these shootings, banning assault rifles won’t make a big difference. It would do more good to address the people with psyochotic/antisocial issues. Your point about using too broad a brush on “metal illness” is valid, but it doesn’t follow to ban a type of weapon.
Keith Law: One rampage was done entirely with handguns (can’t a handgun be semi-automatic, BTW? Isn’t that what a Luger of detective novel fame is?) … what about all of the massacres done with AR-15s? No one is claiming we will ever prevent all mass murders. If we can reduce their frequency at minimal cost, then we should do so. As much as I would love to see us improve mental health treatment in this country, that is very, very expensive. Banning weapons designed to kill as many targets as possible in a short period of time is cheap.

Bobbo: thanks for the chats. here’s a two parter: do you tend to veer away from hidden role and deduction games? and if not, are you partial to Deception (a fave of the game group im in)?
Keith Law: I played Deception with some new friends at Gen Con this year and it was fun, but definitely better thanks to the drinks in everyone’s hands. I don’t mind those games at all but they’re more social/party games than strategy games, which is my preference.

Josh in DC: So help me, my kids (8 and 10) like “Life.” Do you have any recommendations of games that are like Life, but not terrible?
Keith Law: Depends on what they like about it. I don’t know any games that try to simulate what (white, suburban, straight, cis) life is like. Do they like that they’re building stuff – like Agricola, where you’re a farmer and have to feed your family and build our your house and raise animals? (It’s also kind of easy in that game to forget to grow enough food to feed your family.)

Jonathan: Would MacKenzie Gore and Logan Allen be enough to pry Kevin Kiermaier away from the Rays?
Keith Law: Yeah, if the Padres are out of their fucking minds.

John: Even if he’s great the next two years, do you think it’s likely that Darvish actually uses his opt out? There is a lot of competition scheduled to be on the free agent market that year (Sale, Bumgarner, & Cole at the top; plus mid-rotation depth like Gray, Porcello, and Pineda, among others).
Keith Law: He could always threaten to use it and try to renegotiate his deal, too.

Dr. Bob: Colby Rasmus just signed with the Orioles. I don’t know if his career would have turned out the same, but I always wonder if TLR’s manhandling him contributed to his downfall. Might be a cautionary tale that you shouldn’t necessarily treat every player the same.
Keith Law: I think the combination of TLR and Rasmus’s father led to his failure to develop.

Todd: Yankees Luis Medina a potential breakout prospect?
Keith Law: He was my potential breakout prospect for the Yankees.

Mike: This isn’t relevant to a sport that you follow, but some Oregon State fans were accused of yelling racial epithets at players from a rival school after a game. What level of punishment to the school do you think can decrease this deplorable behavior? No future home games, tournament bans, something else?
Keith Law: If the school takes action – banning those fans from games, even suspending them – I’d be fine stopping there. You go after the school if it has shown an unwillingness or inability to stop the problem.
Keith Law: Also, what’s worse, Oregon State fans yelling racial epithets, or Oregon State fans giving convicted child molester Luke Heimlich a standing ovation?

RSO: Thoughts on the economy booming right now under Trump? You ever just give him credit or just rip him for every little thing he does like most liberals do?
Keith Law: You dropped your binky. The economy isn’t “booming,” by the way. The stock market is, but that’s not the economy. Q4 GDP growth came in below expectations.

Dennis: Does Nick Tropeano have mid rotation potential or is he a likely back-end guy?
Keith Law: Two pitch guy, most likely a reliever/long man.

Chris: If and when Andujar and Gleyber entrench themselves, should the Yanks trade Wade, Thairo, and Drury if they’d be average regulars for so called second division teams? Understanding depth is important, at some pt it is not a good allocation of resources.
Keith Law: Trade one or two of the three, but not all. Someone has to back those guys (and Didi) up.

Buck: What do you think of Nick Senzel getting a look at shortstop this spring? Any chance he can stick there, at least for a few years?
Keith Law: No. Don’t get it at all – he was a poor defender at SS as an amateur, and worked hard to get to average at 3b.

JR : Who are a person or two on the social/political right that you read and respect their rationality and integrity even if you disagree them?
Keith Law: David French comes to mind. I’m sure he’s written something that would make me tear my hair out, but he’s been one of the most consistently thoughtful, rational writers on the right I’ve seen over the last year.

Pj: Yandy Diaz is an enormous human being with a good swing. Will the power come at some point?
Keith Law: I think there can be average power.

wade: I believe you mentioned previously that you remodeled your kitchen and decided not to do a double oven. What do you do when you need to cook two things at different temps but want them to be done at the same time?
Keith Law: Almost never comes up.

Dave: Curious what your problem with Douthat is – he’s devout and I’m not, but I assume that’s not the issue. At least he’s smarter than their other conservatives.
Keith Law: Literally wrote a piece arguing for rolling back part of the First Amendment.

RSO: I really enjoyed hearing you on the RAB podcast. Do you plan on working with RAB on any future endeavors?
Keith Law: I’ve always enjoyed their work and have said yes whenever I could when they’ve asked me to do their podcast.

jake: so im confused, where was florial actually born?
Keith Law: An excellent question. For folks who missed it, Florial told Randy Miller he was born in the DR. MLB thinks he was born in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and he wore the Haitian flag in the Futures Game last year. Seems like a visa problem waiting to happen, so I’m hoping this is all just a misunderstanding.

Josh in DC: In slamming intangibles as something that doesn’t exist, you also said leadership abilities don’t exist. Look, I’m dubious about most intangibles. But just because something can’t be measured doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
Keith Law: If it can’t be measured, then you can’t rationally price it, and that is functionally equivalent to nonexistent.

Jay: Can we look forward to your thoughts after Ohtani’s mound debut Saturday?
Keith Law: Nope. Not until I see him live. I’ll be on the road Saturday anyway.

Ron: Keith-I have 3 pigs and a bird dog that can fly before Tebow will ever make a MLB player. He’s just taking up vital space for a real minor-leaguer.
Keith Law: I have declined to write further about Tebow for ESPN. It is a traveling circus at this point.

Todd Boss: In response to the person commenting on the Va Tech massacre, Mother Jones’ US Mass Shootings database reports that Seung-Hui Cho used “Two semiautomatic handguns” … fyi.
Keith Law: I thought so. I don’t know guns at all, though. Never even held an unloaded weapon.

David: Khalil Lee and K’s; Is he missing pitches in the zone or chasing bad pitches? From a scouting perspective, is one considered better or easier to fix?
Keith Law: You can’t really strike out that often without a little of both.

Tim: With ballparks in the PCL being such launching pads, would you encourage organizations to adopt the humidors at those stadiums? If so, why haven’t they? Is it the cost?
Keith Law: Might be an approval process here that stymies them. Of course, moving the teams works too.

Matt: Evan McMullin is a decent person too.
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely. He’s a throwback in many ways to a conservative movement/philosophy that has been overtaken by bigotry and denialism.

Trav: Also, re: the economy, I wonder how many giving Donald credit for the current economy were heaping praise on Obama for averting a completely failed economy when he came into office.
Keith Law: None, I’m sure.

B: Could you see Lucas Erceg getting a call up in September? He reminds me of a young Longoria, only left handed. Is that way off base?
Keith Law: Seems aggressive on both fronts. I do like Erceg, but his approach is nowhere near as mature as Longo’s was at that age.

Adam: Charles C.W. Cooke is a solid conservative writer, although you would differ greatly with him on 2A
Keith Law: I’m fine disagreeing with writers on substantive issues. I’m not fine with, say, calling for rolling back 1A when your career depends on 1A for its mere existence. Or with a piece defending a child molester because he hasn’t had enough victims accuse him.

steve: Swihart: Makes Sox roster or sent packing?
Keith Law: Makes it. Highly doubt they give up on him without one more good shot to get him healthy and productive.

Scott : I’m flying from Helsinki to Aruba on Saturday with three kids under the age of 10, can you recommend a place to get a stiff drink?
Keith Law: In Aruba, fortunately, the alcohol flows quite freely everywhere you go. Godspeed.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions and for reading. I’ll be at U Miami Friday and Saturday nights to see Florida’s two big starters, so if any of you head to the stadium (or have food suggestions!) let me know. Fuck yeah, baseball!

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→ February 22, 2018
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Abacus: Small Enough to Jail.

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, a documentary by Steve James (Hoop Dreams) that originally aired on PBS’s Frontline, earned one of the five nominations for Best Documentary Feature at this year’s Oscars. The film follows Abacus, the only bank to face criminal prosecution in the wake of the 2008 mortgage crisis, through the subsequent trial, largely from the perspective of the Sung family, who founded and still run the small neighborhood bank, based in Manhattan’s Chinatown. The resulting picture is one of politically-motivated prosecution of a non-white institution, of whom the overly ambitious Manhattan DA Cyrus Vance, Jr., could make an example, while getting himself in front of the cameras. You can stream the film for free on PBS’s site, or via Amazon Prime.

Abacus Federal Savings Bank discovered in 2010-11 that one of its loan officers had submitted several loan applications with false information – such as forged employment info or inflated income claims – and had skimmed money from some clients, so they reported the violations to the Office of Thrift Supervision themselves, fired the offending loan officer, and began examining other loans he’d made. Despite the self-reporting, the Manhattan DA’s office chose in 2012 to indict the bank and its officers on over 200 counts related to mortgage fraud, including grand larceny, threatening the group with jail time, fines, and the potential closure of the bank. The Sung family, who founded the bank in 1984, chose to fight all charges; one of their daughters quit her job in the DA’s office and went to work on her family’s defense. Their defense included evidence that the offending loan officers had taken steps to hide their misdeeds from executives, that the loans in question still performed, and that their decision to report themselves showed they were not engaged in any systematic attempt to defraud Fannie Mae, which purchased many of the loans in question.

The Sungs are the stars of Abacus, of course, and their dismay and indignation power the film. It’s clear from the start that the family members involved in the bank saw no choice but to fight the charges, recognizing that even a generous plea agreement might ruin the company, and in the film they repeatedly emphasize what the bank means to the Chinese community in which it operates. Tom Sung, a co-founder of the bank and the family patriarch, recounts the difficulty Chinese entrepreneurs would have in obtaining loans from white-owned banks that were perfectly happy to take those same customers’ deposits. Along with community activist Don Lee (who has a politician’s coiffure) and several reporters who covered the case, the Sungs describe the different norms of the Chinese business world, and how American rules that might target mortgage fraud also made it harder for immigrants to obtain such loans, even if their income was legitimate and their default rates were extremely low. (Abacus claims a 0.5% default rate on mortgages it originates; the national rate for serious delinquency reached 4.9% in 2010 and dropped to a ten-year low of 1.1% last year.)

Vance and Polly Greenberg, who served as chief of the DA’s Major Economic Crimes division from 2012 to 2015, both appear in the film to their own detriment, as they come off in the final product as vindictive and unapologetic despite evidence that they put extremely unreliable witnesses on the stand, possibly suborning perjury in the process. (The film was made before revelations that Vance declined to prosecute Harvey Weinstein for sexual assault around the time that Weinstein contributed to Vance’s campaign.) Their star witness, in particular, lied repeatedly under oath and eventually had his plea deal revoked as a result of his false testimony. It’s entirely possible that James isn’t showing enough of the prosecution’s side of the case, although given his reputation and the ultimate outcome of the trial, I am inclined to give him and the film the benefit of the doubt. At the absolute least, Vance and Greenberg failed in their duty to do sufficient due diligence on their key witnesses, and that opens them up to charges of malicious, racially-motivated prosecution. Vance Jr. was unopposed in the November election, which is too bad, as Abacus would make a fine campaign film for anyone running against him.

I’ve seen three of the five nominees for this category now, with Netflix’s Strong Island downloaded for my next flight, and Faces Places due out on DVD at least on March 6th (after the awards … this is so stupid; if you’re nominated and can’t get into theaters, put it out to stream right away, I am trying to give you my money). Abacus is the best made of the three documentaries I’ve seen, but lacks the emotional punch of Last Men in Aleppo or the holy-crap aspects of the more timely Icarus. FiveThirtyEight’s Walt Hickey has pointed out that this year’s slate of nominees is extremely weird anyway.

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→ February 21, 2018
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A Fantastic Woman.

A Fantastic Woman (Una mujer fantástica), Chile’s submission for this year’s Academy Award for Best Foreign Language Film and one of the five nominees, is notable simply for its casting: A trans woman plays a trans woman who happens to be the film’s main character. Daniela Vega delivers a tour de force performance as Marina, the fantastic woman of the movie’s title, a woman whose life is suddenly turned upside down when her cis male lover dies suddenly, putting her in conflict with the man’s estranged family – most of whom refuse to accept her for what she is.

Marina is a nightclub singer who by all external appearances is a woman, but whose status as transgender appears to be known by everyone she encounters, even characters who should be complete strangers to her. She and Orlando, a somewhat older, genteel man, have an unremarkable, romantic relationship, where she has just moved in with him and he surprises her for her birthday with plans for an exotic vacation together. This all goes right to hell when he dies suddenly and his ex-wife and son enter the picture, complete with their bigotry, hatred, and threats of violence, all of which show how they don’t even see her as human, let alone as a woman. The movie documents her refusal to surrender to them, and society as a whole, even in the face of physical attacks and a system that dehumanizes her at every turn.

Vega is remarkable in a role that demands that she go through numerous events that I would imagine would trigger awful memories for any trans person (and perhaps any non-binary person, period). Because Orlando falls down the stairs while Marina goes to get the car keys to rush him to the hospital, the authorities assume that she was a prostitute who’d fought back when a client assaulted her, or that she even assaulted him for reasons unknown. There’s an early scene where a doctor and a police officer refer to her in the third person, as if she’s not even there, using male pronouns, even though – again – you wouldn’t think she was trans even after talking to her for a few minutes. (I found this a bit confusing; perhaps the doctor looked at her neck, but that wouldn’t occur to an ordinary person.) Later, Orlando’s son, who proves the most bigoted of all, asks if she’s had “the surgery” (I think Laverne Cox made it clear to everyone that it’s not an appropriate question) and asks the most dehumanizing question of all, “What are you?” Her answer – “I’m flesh and blood, just like you” – and his inability to respond to it spell out the constant fight that trans people face in a society full of people who, frankly, are just too damn obsessed with other people’s sex lives.

This is a star-making turn from Vega, although she dominates so much of the film that there’s little room for anyone else. (Why she wasn’t nominated for Best Actress is beyond me; she’d be a worthy winner, and deserved it over at least two of the nominees.) Gabo, Orlando’s brother, played by Luis Gnecco (star of 2016’s Neruda, Chile’s submission to the Oscars last year), is the most three-dimensional of the other characters, showing uncommon empathy for Marina and the mere willingness to use female pronouns for her. The script, co-written by director Sebastián Lelio and Gonzalo Maza, doesn’t dispense with these characters lightly, but their appearances in the film are a function of their relationship to and interactions with Marina. They’re real because the dialogue feels real, because the treatment she gets at the hands of almost every single person she meets is exactly what you would expect in a majority-Catholic country that only recognized gay marriages in 2017.

Transgender characters have had extremely poor representation in film; other than Boys Don’t Cry, Dallas Buyers Club, and The Danish Girl, all of which featured cis actors in trans roles, major films that have featured trans characters have largely done so for shock value or comic effect. A Fantastic Woman features a trans character, played by a trans woman, in a story that is about everyday life as a trans person in an intolerant society – but in a way that can be interpreted more broadly, too, to capture that feeling of being utterly alone, of feeling unsafe in your own skin, and of the need to find something that helps define you for yourself as opposed to the way that others define you.

I still have Loveless and The Insult to see of the five nominees for Best Foreign Language Film, but Sony Classics has been so slow to roll Loveless, a Russian film that won the Jury Prize at Cannes last year, that I may not catch it before the Oscars.

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→ February 20, 2018
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Loving Vincent.

One of the five nominees for this year’s Academy Award for Best Animated Feature (along with the modern classic that is Boss Baby), Loving Vincent stands out primarily for its appearance: It is the first animated film made from hand-painted frames, in this case done with oil paints on canvas. The conceit was to tell a story about Vincent Van Gogh that used his style and even images from his paintings as the background, while actors portrayed the various characters in front of green screens and were painted into the frames. The 94-minute film comprises over 65,000 frames, each its own painting, created by over 120 painters, while the story comes from letters recovered after Van Gogh’s suicide and the subsequent death of his brother, Theo. The plot here is a bit thin, although the work by the actors – who are more than just voice actors here – elevates what story we get. If you appreciate the visual aspects of animated films, though, you won’t be able to take your eyes off the screen. (It’s on iTunes and amazon.)

The story begins a year or so after Van Gogh’s death, when the Postman Joseph Roulin asks his son Armand (Douglas Booth) to deliver a letter from Van Gogh to his brother and patron, Theo, that was somehow lost but serves as the last letter he wrote before he took his own life. The quest to find Theo turns into a deeper interest in learning what happened to Vincent in the last few months of his life, and why a person who claimed six weeks earlier to be in great spirits decided to end his own life. Armand, who’s a bit credulous to be entirely credible here, bounces around like a sort of soft-boiled detective, visiting the guest house where Van Gogh stayed and the doctor who treated him for his depression and, later, who saw him after he’d shot himself. The mystery aspect here – at one point, Armand becomes convinced Van Gogh was shot by someone else, perhaps in a prank gone wrong, and was covering for the culprit – isn’t compelling at all, since there isn’t any real doubt that Van Gogh 1) was suicidal and 2) shot himself, but the story here is the means to the end of walking us through a tour of Van Gogh’s output.

I went into this knowing almost nothing about the works of Van Gogh, and decided to leave any further reading until after I watched it lest I spoil some aspect of the film. The poster for the film uses his 1889 Self-portrait, but you’ll see many of his most famous works as backdrops for critical scenes; I spotted The Night Café, Wheat Field with Cypresses, Wheat field with Crows, The Town Hall at Auvers, The Sower (at the end), and Café Terrace at Night (the opening scene). The filmmakers also used Van Gogh’s paintings to ‘design’ the characters, most of whom are based on real people Van Gogh painted, with other characters created from his paintings. Some of the likenesses are remarkable, especially Jerome Flynn (Bronn in Game of Thrones) as Dr. Gachet, although there was really little they could do here to make Saoirse Ronan look like anyone but herself.

Because the story itself is so slight, Loving Vincent is more of an achievement than a great film; there’s never been a movie that looked like this, and it subtly introduces some of the audience to the works of one of the most important painters in western history, several of whose paintings have sold for nine figures. (Only one of Van Gogh’s paintings sold during his life, out of the 800-plus he painted.) It’s a gorgeous film to watch, and the leisurely pace of the plot fits the content; you’re meant to savor and even examine these backdrops, not to just focus on the action or dialogue. But that also means it’s not a film for everybody; I’m probably on the outer fringes of the audience for this movie, because I know nothing about art and don’t feel like I even appreciate it like most art fans and collectors would. I can say, however, that I understand Van Gogh’s style more now having seen the movie, and would at least be able to identify some of his works as his, which is more than I would take home from most movies I see.

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→ February 19, 2018
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Otys.

Otys is a new-ish midweight strategy board game from Asmodee’s Libellud imprint, released here right around the holidays, and the first title from designer Claude Lucchini. It’s a sort of futuristic deep sea-diving themed game, where players try to gather resources to complete contracts, and must manipulate two sets of tiles to be able to make moves. There might be a better game in here somewhere, but I found it rather overdesigned, and the mechanics aren’t well-connected to the theme.

In Otys, two to four players each work with a player board that has six tokens, numbered one through five plus a neutral “X” token, and eight diver tiles, each of which has a different ability. The board has slots for the numbered tokens, and then a column where you randomly stack the diver tiles in a way that has five of them adjacent to the five numbered slots. On a turn, you will pick one of the numbered tiles, slide it to the right, use one of the five “sponsor” tiles from the central board to get something (a credit, a battery, the right to use your diver’s skill twice, etc.), and then use the ability of the adjacent diver. Four of the divers get you specific resources. The others let you add abilities like gaining a new contract card only you can complete or trading credits for resources.

The contracts come in two forms. The game has four resources – white, green, blue, and black, which I think mean actual things like plants and water, but it really doesn’t matter to the mechanics – and some contracts simply require you gather two to four specific resources to fulfill them, gaining points and sometimes a credit or battery token. The other contracts tell you to acquire specific combinations of any resources – so, two of one type, two of another, and one of a third – where you get to pick the colors, and then have similar rewards.


The Otys board; diver tiles are in the center column.

The big catch in Otys, and the only mechanic here that I thought was novel, is that each token/diver row on your player board has a storage space for resources, and to fill a contract, you must have all the right resources in one specific storage space. The spaces can hold three to six resources, but in practical terms, you’re going to use maybe two of them heavily, because gaining resources in all of your storage areas will leave you unable to ever fill contracts. You can also add tokens via one diver (the ‘explorer’) that let you pay two credits, take one resource or victory point or battery now, and then place that token on its other face next to a storage area, providing you with a permanent bonus whenever you fill a contract from that area. The divers are also double-sided, with each bringing an ‘upgraded’ side that lets you invoke its power for one fewer credit or that gives you something else in addition to the single resource.

The numbered ‘key’ tokens must be placed in the ‘hacker’ track below your board after they’re used; you can only bring them back up when the track is filled, which at the start of the game would mean using all of your tokens at least once before using them again. You get one X token to place in any row where you’ve already used the key, and there’s a way – very poorly described in the English rules – to acquire more X tokens from the central supply. This mechanic felt trite, reminiscent of games from Puerto Rico and San Juan to last year’s Entropy, where you have to use all or most of your roles and then ‘reset’ your hand, and the combination of this mechanic and the diver one – when you use a diver, s/he has to ‘resurface’ by going to the top of the queue, with everyone above him/her moving down a spot – just made the game overly complex.

The game ends when anyone gets to 18 points, after which you finish the round so everyone can try to complete one more contract. In practice, that means 3-4 contracts plus the random point or two you’ll add along the way, and it does play in about an hour. The theme has almost nothing to do with the game, and there are way too many restrictions and twists here for me to enjoy the experience. I wish more effort had gone into streamlining the rules, even if it came at the cost of some of the artwork or component design.

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