Istanbul app.

Istanbul won the Kennerspiel des Jahres in 2014 and was one of my favorite new games of that year, ranking only behind Splendor on my personal list. Although the basic mechanics of individual turns revolve mostly around set collection, gathering items you can trade for rubies (required to win the game) or for money you can use to buy rubies, the real heart of Istanbul strategy is critical path modeling: figuring out the best way to move around the variable board to ensure you’re being as efficient as possible with your turns. Because the board itself is built each game, with a basic ‘short paths’ setup but millions of potential arrangements of the 16 tiles, you can master the concept but can’t go into a game with a set plan.

Acram Digital has now introduced a port of Istanbul for iOS and Android, and it’s excellent right out of the chute, with just minor flaws even at its first release. The app particularly helps the novice player by making it hard to forget options you might have to enhance your turns; if you have earned a special ability or have the right to play a card that might help, the app reminds you of this, sometimes with a dialog asking if you’re sure you don’t want to use that ability, sometimes just with an icon right on the screen that puts the option in front of you. That makes game play much easier against the AI and more fair if you’re playing online against more advanced players.

In Istanbul, each player is trying to be the first to collect five rubies, anywhere on the board. You can buy them with combinations of goods, with gold coins, by upgrading your ‘wheelbarrow’ three times (a total cost of 21 coins), or by buying both upgrades at the small mosque or the great mosque. The catch with all of those tiles, other than the wheelbarrow upgrade, is that the cost increases each time someone uses the tile, so getting there early can be beneficial … but it costs you the change to acquire upgrades that might make it easier to collect rubies later in the game. You move around the 4×4 board of tiles with your merchant and a stack of ‘assistant’ tokens; when you land on a tile and want to use it, you must leave one assistant there, or, if you’ve been there before and left an assistant already, pick that one back up. Once your stack is out of assistants, you can move but can’t take an action unless you pick an assistant back up or return to the Fountain tile and bring ’em all home. I reviewed the game in full for Paste back in 2015.

The app is pretty much spot on; I had just one little glitch, found some spelling errors in the tutorial, and would like harder AI opponents, but that’s a modest list of criticisms for a brand new release – and it has yet to crash on me through dozens of plays. The app offers four board setups, including the semi-random setup described in the physical game’s rulebook, and lets you play one to four human or AI opponents, with three difficulty settings for the latter. The game’s icons are simple, but sometimes the function of a card or a mosque upgrade isn’t immediately clear; you can click on any of those and hit the (i) in the upper left corner to get a full description of what it does. There’s a tiny lag sometimes when you complete an action before the app gives you the icons to move to the next screen, not a serious problem but something that threw me off the first few times I played.

The app also includes the ‘neutral assistants’ variant, where each player starts the game with one assistant in his/her stack that doesn’t belong to any single player, so if you go to a tile with a neutral assistant on it, you can pick it up and take the action even if you didn’t leave the token there in the first place. It’s definitely worth the $7 as is, although again, I think the hard AI players need to be stronger; I’m no expert at the game but can beat them more than half the time even on the harder boards.

DC eats, 2018 edition.

The Futures Game was more or less in my backyard this year, a shade over two hours away in Washington DC, so I drove down there on Saturday before my event at Politics & Prose (many thanks to the 120-plus of you who came to see Jay Jaffe and me speak) and then drove home on Monday morning, in time to get my daughter from camp and head to the Wilmington Blue Rocks game with her that night. That did limit the amount of time I had for culinary exploration, but I did try three new spots.

Little Pearl is the third outpost in the Rose’s Luxury empire, taking the little daytime café concept from the front of Pineapple & Pearls and spinning it out into its own location, which was buzzing on Sunday morning despite the heat and Little Pearl’s small, eclectic menu. Their daytime menu includes six “sandwiches,” including the gravlax toast, in which the cured salmon comes cubed and tossed with avocado, heirloom tomato, a little crème fraîche, capers, dill, and pepitas, on a thick slice of sourdough bread. I’m a sucker for any sort of smoked or cured salmon (or, if I’m somewhere I trust, even raw), and this was really spectacular, satisfying with the combination of fats, with just a little acidity from the tomatoes and the capers to balance it out. The salmon used for the gravlax must be of extremely high quality given how clean and bright its flavor was; sometimes curing can accentuate fishier flavors in salmon, which is an oily fish to begin with, but Little Pearl’s was bright and fresh. I also tried the potato donut, which was incredibly light and airy, benefiting from the reduction in gluten that comes from swapping out some wheat flour for potato. (It does not taste like potato, if you’re wondering.) The menu also includes spicy fried chicken, a novel twist on a burger, a few salads, gelato, and some grab-and-go items like a yogurt parfait or banana bread (which is cake, really). They use Passenger coffee from Lancaster for their coffee bar, which includes a full array of espresso options.

Tail Up Goat opened in 2016 in the Adams Morgan neighborhood of DC and has already earned a Michelin star. The menu changes often, but I believe their crispy salt cod croquettes are a regular fixture, with good reason, as they hit exactly the right note of the distinctive and, yes, salty flavor of that classic peasant food (what you might know as bacalhao in Portuguese or baccalà in Italian), whipped with potato until smooth, here served with smoked cauliflower and pickled onion. Salt cod is going to have a fishy note, but whether it’s a pleasant one depends on how it’s prepared, and here it’s prepared exceptionally so you’re almost getting the memory of that note rather than the overpowering flavor of badly prepared fish. The new potatoes with romano beans and herbs were perfectly cooked although eating them at the same time as the salt cod was probably our mistake.

The stracciatella with peaches, shallots, basil leaves, and pepitas was another highlight; the cheese, similar to the center of burrata but worked more to develop the stretchy curds that give the cheese its name, shone like a fresh ricotta, and although it’s a little early around these parts for peaches – I believe our local pick-your-own place has one variety that’s ready – these were sweet like peak-season fruit. We tried two of the pasta dishes, a spring pea agnolotti with chanterelles and roasted carrots as well as a tagliatelle with sausage and an herb pesto, with the agnolotti the better of the two, with more tooth to the dough and a higher filling/pasta ratio than you’d find with other agnolotti, which benefited the dish since the peas’ flavor is subtler than that of red meat. The tagliatelle was rolled a little thinner than I like that cut of pasta, which I think is best when you really have something to sink your teeth into, but that’s a matter of personal taste. They also make a daiquiri with Neisson Rhum Agricole, a 100 proof rum made from sugar cane rather than molasses, and Smith & Cross traditional rum, as well as lime, orange, and cardamom, but it’s really rum-forward rather than losing those flavors in citrus or sweetening agents. As for the name, it’s from a saying on the co-owner’s birthplace in the Virgin Islands: “Tail up goat, tail down sheep.”

I was fortunate enough to be invited by the Fangraphs crew to Timber Pizza on Saturday night, after Jay and I finished our signing and we’d all had beers at Comet Ping-Pong (the basement was closed for a private event, to our dismay). They call their pizza “Neapolitan-ish,” which is only accurate in that the crust is thin, but the style is really quite different – the crust’s edges aren’t puffy and charred, and the center isn’t wet – so this is somewhere more like Roman-style pizza, with a thinner, crispier crust than you’d get at a true Neapolitan joint. It’s all still good, just a matter of what you like in your pizza. I was particularly impressed by the quality of the cured meats Timber used, especially the pepperoni, something I almost never eat because I find it too salty and greasy and a source of immediate regret. Theirs was none of those things, least of all the last part, and I’d order it again, although I also loved their green pizzas with basil pesto, including the Penelope (fresh mozzarella, mushrooms, bacon, and smoked paprika) and the Green Monster (fresh mozzarella, feta, kale, and zucchini). If you’re into pizza and in DC, I do have a bit of bad news: 2 Amy’s is closed for the foreseeable future after a pipe burst in their kitchen on July 7th, flooding the place and causing substantial damage everywhere. They haven’t been able to give a projected date for a re-open.

Stick to baseball, 7/14/18.

No new Insider pieces this week; I’ll have a Futures Game wrapup Sunday night and an updated top 50 prospects ranking out on Thursday. I did hold a Klawchat this past week.

Over at Paste, I reviewed the popular and very highly-rated new board game Rising Sun, from designer Eric Lang (Blood Rage, Ancestree), a $100 game with meticulously-crafted miniature figures but a fairly straightforward set of mechanics around area control and negotiation.

In just a few hours, I’ll be DC’s famed bookstore Politics & Prose with Jay Jaffe to talk about our books and sign copies. The event starts at 6 pm.

Two weeks from today, I’ll be at the Silver Unicorn Bookstore in Acton, MA at 1 pm to speak and sign copies of my book as well.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 7/12/18.

I’ll be co-hosting an all-ages board game night at the Brandywine Hundred Library in north Wilmington on Friday night starting at 5 pm. Details here.

Keith Law: We require certain skills. Klawchat.

barbeach: Keith: Thanks so much for doing these chats. Loved your book. If you’re Cashman, who are you NOT willing to part with to get Machado?
Keith Law: There’s no way I trade Sheffield, who could probably be their fifth starter in the second half, for two months of Machado. I’m not sure I’d trade him for any rental, really.

BigSauce: Kyle Tucker – Just A Guy, The Guy or better than Average Guy
Keith Law: He’s very much a GUY.

harold: why is Bader not playing everyday in STL? His WAR is the highest of their outfield by far. Fowlers struggles are well documented, and Pham and Ozuna haven’t been good either
Keith Law: I do think Bader should play more, or be traded, so we agree on that. However: 1) His WAR is largely boosted by defense on B-R; Fangraphs doesn’t give his glove the same value; and 2) his offensive value has been almost entirely from mashing against lefties.

Kyle KS: What recourse does Jordan Hicks have? His arm is abused by Matheny, getting bullied by Norris and Matheny and even the STL-PD seemed to pass it off as “boys will be boys.” He’s not in a good spot.
Keith Law: That’s one for his agent. If that happens to a player, their best move is to go to the agent, who can either go to the GM/President or through the union. I don’t think this runs afoul of MLB’s rules on hazing, which were specifically targeted at the September crap like putting rookies in women’s clothes, but I doubt MLB is thrilled at the news.

Jesse B: Is Wander Franco (TB) the next DR player to skyrocket up prospect lists?
Keith Law: He can really hit. Maybe a 2b, but the bat is real. Very quick hands.

Nicholas: In order to trade for Machado, would the Red Sox have to part with a MLB player or do they have enough parts in their MiLB system to make it happen?
Keith Law: I don’t see how they do it.

Kevin: Assuming everyone stays with the White Sox and develops into major leaguers, does Madrigal push Anderson or Moncada to a different position? Asking for a friend.
Keith Law: Anderson is the only true shortstop of the three, so it can’t be him. I think Moncada would make a good CF.

Mike: I’m still upset that no one picked up on your Laaz Rockit reference last week.
Keith Law: I’m upset enough that I’m going to take a holiday in Cambodia.

Brent: As a Cardinals fan I agree with your assessment of Yadier Molina’s HOF candidacy, he just doesn’t quite cut it. Wouldn’t cards fans energy be better spent promoting Jim Edmonds/Ted Simmons who have legitimate HOF cases? I know Edmonds fell off the ballot, but I can dream.
Keith Law: The lack of fan support for Edmonds – who was a two-way star for the Cardinals – puzzles me too.

Mike: Has jalen Miller done anything different this year, or is his resurgence (ok…surgence) more of a mirage?
Keith Law: Still only 21, so plenty of time to develop, but he’s repeating the league and he’s faded quite a bit since his strong start – since June 1st he has a .254 OBP and 3 walks vs 36 K.

Joe: DL Hall has been on a roll lately. Any positive reports?
Keith Law: Quite positive. Three-pitch guy. I get a lot of “mid-rotation starter ceiling” on him, which surprises me because he seems to have a few weapons to miss bats. He’s one of my top targets to see in the second half.

Alex: Anything to take out of F. Whitley’s 2018 or should we just consider it a lost year at this point?
Keith Law: I’m not sure what the question is – he’s thrown just 21 innings, and they were very good.

Alex: Any notable addition to your kitchen equipment from the Europe trip?
Keith Law: We didn’t shop that much, although we did end up in a bookstore in Milan (alas, no Baseball Intelligente) and I picked up a small cookbook devoted completely to gnocchi and gnudi.

Jo-Nathan: Fuck, we are going to see Tim Tebow in a Mets uniform in September aren’t we?
Keith Law: One hundred percent.

Sing: Hi Keith, could you shed some light on what happened with Carter Stewart? Did the Braves realize they had an injured pitcher or was it about money? Also, does getting the 9th pick in 2019 provide more of a benefit to the Braves if he was injured? Love your work and thanks.
Keith Law: I won’t. I will say that I think Stewart should head for a junior college and re-enter next year’s draft; he could be a top 5 pick with a similar spring without injury. I think Atlanta is worse off with the 9th pick next year than with the 8th pick this year.

Gary: Do you see Jason Bahr as an eventual mid-rotation starter?
Keith Law: I do not.

Dennis: Why didn’t your wife come to Europe with you and your daughter?
Keith Law: She hates flying – used to have a real fear of it, now just truly dislikes it, and the flights to/from Europe are no joke, plus it’s two flights to get to my cousins in Genoa (there was one nonstop option from Newark to Milan, but it was expensive, and EWR sucks). I did offer, but she really wasn’t interested.

Jo-Nathan: Any word on how Kyle Lewis looks? The numbers are underwhelming but what are scouts saying?
Keith Law: Not 100%.

Kyle KS: What sites do you have open while chatting? You pull up numbers and other info in a hurry.
Keith Law: I just open sites as needed, like B-R and Fangraphs.

Pat: SSS at Toledo aside, has Jacob Robson made himself a viable prospect this year? Seems like improved power with a decent eye, but, unsupportable BABIP. 4th OF? CF on a bad team?
Keith Law: Fourth OF. That’s a fringe prospect for me. Not much power for a corner.

El Perezoso: Where do you feel Machado ends up and for what return?
Keith Law: Brewers and Dodgers make most sense, but honestly, if I’m betting, I’d bet on him not moving at all.

Matt: What is Zach Britton worth on the trade market?
Keith Law: Not much, since he’s barely pitched since his return and hasn’t looked right yet.

Jay: Do we need to give Mickey Callaway more time to grow as a manager, or can we already proclaim this was a bad hire? Man he seems clueless so far.
Keith Law: I don’t know what you expect him to do with that roster, though.

Mike: How do you evaluate someone like Puk for rankings coming into next season?
Keith Law: I usually drop TJ guys quite a bit until they’re back throwing and we at least have some reports on whether their velocity has returned.

John: Is Dayton Moore with the Royals when they return to contention?
Keith Law: Probably not.

Rod: Can you see Cristian Pache getting promoted to AA before the end of the year?
Keith Law: I see no point to that.

Jason: What’s the story behind the “accident” of electing Rick Ferrell to the HOF?
Keith Law: Some friend of his asked a few Vets Committee members to vote for Ferrell so he wouldn’t be embarrassed by getting shut out. Enough of them voted for him that he got in. So maybe we shouldn’t use him as some low bar for future candidates to clear.

Matt: Thanks for recommending Ticket to Ride! What should I pick up next?
Keith Law: Depends on who you’re playing with and whether you want something similar or a shade more challenging. Carcassonne is always my go-to recommendation for folks who are looking for a new game but haven’t played a ton of titles.

Sean: Hi Keith, thanks again for the chats. Watching Enyel De Los Santos’ debut his short-arm motion surprised me. Is that a potential problem for him going forward? Also, does he project as a mid to back-end rotation starter? I am trying not to overreact to his potential by scouting his AAA stat line.
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s a starter, between the delivery and lack of a real breaking ball.

Mike: Is Machado really that much of an upgrade over Andujar? These rumors don’t pass the sniff test for me.
Keith Law: Specifically, what is two months of Machado (plus October) worth versus Andujar? Maybe two wins, and then the postseason? What’s that worth? Not a huge package of prospects, IMO.

Jimmy: What policies of Trump do you like ?
Keith Law: He keeps promising to liberalize marijuana laws. Granted, I want that to come with expunging records of past convictions for trivial possession, but this would be a huge start.

Scott: If Carter Kieboom continues at a somewhere similar pace to finish out the year, could you see him moving up to a potentially top 25 prospect going into next year?
Keith Law: No, that’s too much for a guy who’s not a shortstop.

Jimmy: RE twitter comment about Kaepernick/baseball: I don’t think you would go out of your way to bash Kap like you have Tebow …
Keith Law: The cool thing is that what you think I would do doesn’t matter. If any player were gifted a job and promotions he hadn’t earned, and thus got in the way of another player (Urena can’t play LF in Binghamton because the washed-up QB is stumbling around out there), I would bash the team that signed him, as I have the Mets.

Aaron: I know you’re more of a fan of literary fiction, but what popular fiction (aside from Harry Potter) have you liked?
Keith Law: I love some classic authors like Agatha Christie and Rex Stout. Ann Patchett certainly crosses over into popular fiction although her work is good enough to count as literature. I guess that’s where you’ll find my tastes in popular fiction – the smart stuff that crosses over into popularity.

JP: Klaw! Whats up my dude? Dustin May.. what are your thoughts?
Keith Law: Great athlete, two pitches right now, control well ahead of command, having an outstanding season for a 20-year-old in a strong hitter’s park.

HH: If you’re Cleveland, do you give up Mejia for two months of Machado (and really, only October)? Does that get it done?
Keith Law: If I’m Baltimore I take that deal. I don’t do it if I’m Cleveland; I might deal Mejia, but not for a rental.

Scooter: Do you expect Alec Bohm (given his track record and age) to be an every day player down the line for the Phillies?
Keith Law: Yes. I think he’s a regular, but probably not a star unless he can become an average defender at third. Early pro reports on him haven’t been good.

Michael: RBI’s mean nothing, but does the 15th 10 RBI game in history mean anything?
Keith Law: No.

Nick: What high school prospect has had the best breaking ball you’ve ever scouted?
Keith Law: I didn’t get a truly healthy Carter Stewart this spring, so it’s one of Groome, Giolito, or Bundy. I said all three had 70 curveballs.

Lenneal McKudu: Has the industry warmed up to Drew Waters, yet? 136 wRC+ through the halfway mark in Rome.
Keith Law: Don’t use wOBA/wRC+ for minor leaguers. Chase Vallot had a 136 wRC+ last year in Wilmington, and then posted a 65 wRC+ this year before he was demoted.
Keith Law: Guys who can’t hit decent pitching – like Vallot – can feast enough on bad pitching to put up what look like good wRC+ numbers, but they don’t actually give us the information that they provide on major leaguers.

Alex: The Tigers trade Fulmer to the Braves for Austin Riley, Drew Waters, and Joey Wentz. Who says no first?
Keith Law: Why would Atlanta do that

Welcome Back Kapler: You being high on Kap as a manager was basically the only reason that I gave him a chance after the disastrous first week as a manager. How do you think he has done? Secondly – do you think the Phillies will get him help like Machado or should they stay the course and sign Machado/Harper in the offseason (either one).
Keith Law: I think he’s done extremely well, and I agree with others who’ve said they’re the favorites for Machado, between the front office connections, their financial wherewithal, and the non-development of Franco (although he’s had a nice few weeks).

Sugar Shane Delery: Is there a more frustrating player in baseball than Gregory Polanco? All the tools but highly inconsistent.
Keith Law: It seems like that’s happened a lot with Pirates’ hitters, no? Polanco and Bell are underperforming in the majors (relative to tools – Polanco hasn’t been bad, but he should be a star). Meadows never developed as expected in the minors, although he was hurt a lot. Newman and Hayes have been OK, but a little below expectations. I don’t have a good answer here.

Matt: Pache is up to 8 HRs on the year, is his body just filling out? It looks sustainable.
Keith Law: I said over the winter I thought he’d end up a 20+ homer guy. He was just so young for low-A last year, and his body was really slight for his age too.

Nick: Can you recall the most a consensus top 10 pick dropped in the draft (not counting signability/health concerns).
Keith Law: It’s always signability or health.

Ryan: Is there anyone in the Mets system that you are high on that other publications or scouts aren’t really talking about much?
Keith Law: I don’t know about other publications, but i have certainly boosted Dunn and Peterson, and to a lesser extent Kay.

Robbie: Garrett Richards seems to need TJ. Is there something about his delivery that’s led to so many of his injuries, or is he just unlucky with the way his body has reacted to the workload?
Keith Law: I think this is largely the same injury, with TJ delayed by stem cell treatment.

Neil: Optimistic about Dalbec, or does his age and level cancel out most of his progress?
Keith Law: He is a prospect thanks to his power, but a 30% strikeout rate – for a guy who’s long had swing and miss problems – for a 23-year-old in high-A is not good.

Nick: Ryan McKenna – what do you make of his breakout this year?
Keith Law: I’m in. Future regular. Late bloomer, not shocking given where he came from.

Anthony: Beyond Adell, any prospects who have impressed a lot thus far this year? Or will we have to wait for the mid season update next week?
Keith Law: I’d rather get the list out next week, and then discuss any other names in the chat that afternoon.

Oscar: Jumping on the Machado trade train. If you’re the Dodgers, what would be your final “take it or leave it” offer for Machado?
Keith Law: I’d put Verdugo and Smith in an offer; I get the sense they’re not as high on Verdugo as his performance would imply, and Smith is behind Ruiz. If the O’s can do better than that, more power to them.

Zach: I’m a 30-yr who finally walked away from the GOP in the wake of Trump. Have they always been this nuts or is this a product of post-Obama hysteria?
Keith Law: I have voted Republican many times in the past, and I think this is a new and very unfortunate phase, one that will almost certainly ensure I never vote for any Republican candidate again.

Aaron : Your early thoughts on the 2019 Draft, any names to keep an eye on during the early part of the draft process?
Keith Law: Too early. I’ll do some events later this month, including Under Armour, and visit this at the end of August once showcases/the cape are done. I will say scouts’ comments on the collegiate national team were fairly negative, with a lot of questions why some players (Logan Davidson comes to mind) weren’t even invited, and comments how the freshmen were better prospects than the sophomores.

Harrisburg Hal: Have you ever made chocolate lava cake? incredibly easy or difficult? I’m not a chocolate person, but thought I’d surprise my wife by baking.
Keith Law: Incredibly easy. You just have to make sure you pull it out early enough … and then we really need to have a conversation about bringing back phrasing.

Cletus: Bundy got crushed again last night. Should O’s shut him down, or rest him more?
Keith Law: I’d like to see them try to use him as an extra-rest starter, the way the Angels tried to do with Ohtani. I don’t think Bundy could be a straight reliever, pitching on consecutive days.

Rob k : Now that Terry and Sandy are gone, I think we’re starting to see how much of the mess in Flushing is due to ownership. How responsible is Selig for propping up the Wilpons when they lost all their money.
Keith Law: Pushing them to sell the club would be best for the league as a whole.

Michael: Why wouldn’t they move Machado? Has to be better than a draft pick
Keith Law: My question is whether they can get everyone involved in the decision – and who knows who exactly is involved, beyond Duquette – to agree on anything.

Matt: Thank you so much for always sticking up for trans right and for standing for equality! We definitely need more public figures like you. How long ago was it that you were a woman?
Keith Law: Yes, you can only believe in rights for trans people if you are one. It’s amazing that there are people this dumb and bigoted in 2018.

Jerome: What happened with Matt Mclain? Did the Dbacks realize they reached for him and decided not to sign him?
Keith Law: Teams never do that.

Nic: What happened with all these draftees not signing?I kind of just assumed,like you had mentiones on your periscope of the draft, that everyone drafted that high would sign.
Keith Law: Two of the unsigned players had some kind of post-draft medical issue, although I don’t even ask what those are when I hear about them. I believe Ginn and McLain simply wanted more money than those teams offered them, which I really don’t understand for Ginn, as a hard-throwing high school pitcher with a violent delivery. I certainly hope he stays healthy, but I worry about kids with that profile who turn down seven figures out of HS (like Karsten Whitson).

Gerald: Excited to see that you are doing a book signing in Acton, MA. Are you going to be doing any scouting while up in the area or is it just a one-day trip?
Keith Law: It’s possible I’ll hit the Cape beforehand.

Matt: If I decided to convert any top 15-20 starter into a closer, would they immediately become the best reliever in the league?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t say “any” but certainly most.

Hugo: What should the Orioles do with Chris Davis? It’s a lot of years and dollars to just DFA.
Keith Law: That’s a sunk cost; if he’s not worth the roster spot, then you DFA him. He’ll clear waivers anyway.

Sam: Who would you keep, between Will Smith and Keibert Ruiz? Dustin May and Mitchell White?
Keith Law: Ruiz for sure. May, as White hasn’t been 100% healthy since I saw him last spring (2017).

Oscar: Do you buy into the theory that participating in the HR derby can ruin a player’s swing?
Keith Law: No.

Rob: Surprised that Imani Abdullah retired yesterday. I know he’s been struggling but only 21. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I heard, secondhand, he was topping out in the mid-80s. Even in HS he wasn’t projectable and had no feel for a breaking ball.

Tom: Regarding the Braves and 8th vs. 9th pick–is that a broad assessment or does it have to do with the player specifically?
Keith Law: It’s about next year’s draft looking worse than this year’s. And I did have Stewart #2 on my board.

Stephen: O/U: 200Ks in 2019 for Kopech.
Keith Law: If he makes 28 starts he’ll clear that.

Brett: Do you view Khalil Lee as a potential impact prospect in KC or simply the best of what the Royals currently have?
Keith Law: He’s legit. Maybe a bit of a high-K guy but definite OBP, power, some speed, at worst a plus defender in RF but maybe an average CF.

Rob: After a rough start to the season, Hunter Greene has seemingly made the right adjustments and is doing well. Have you seen him pitch this year?
Keith Law: In March. I’ll see him again on Sunday.

Jack: Do you ever take into account poor pitch calling when scouting a pitcher?
Keith Law: Yes, especially in college/HS. I wrote about that when arguing for Gerrit Cole in the 2011 draft – I thought the coaches called for his four-seamer way too much and his SL/CH too little.

Danny: Everyone is saying that the Mets should trade Degrom, but it doesn’t seem like that potential package is out there. You have to figure that a DeGrom trade would have to be headlined by a top 15 caliber guy, and all those guys are on teams that are not really players for Degrom . Insterestingly, nationals (Robles), Phillies (sixto) and the Braves (acuna/Albies), could headline packages. Is that something you could see happening?
Keith Law: If the right offer isn’t out there – I agree, it seems unlikely at the moment – then you hold him and trade him this winter. I also don’t love the idea of them making a huge deal with an interim GM situation.

Michael: Unfortunately I can’t make it to P&P on Saturday night, and I’m bummed. Will you be doing any other meet-ups while you’re in DC? At the Futures Game?
Keith Law: Yes, I will try to meet fans (if there’s interest) between BP and first pitch.

Michael: As a Cubs fan, losing Torres for a WS title was worth it. Would it not be worth it to any other team to lose a top prospect for Machado and a title? FFF
Keith Law: Gotta get that flag, though. If you trade Machado and lose in the DS, was it worth it? Does Machado materially improve your chances of winning three playoff series?

Johnny O: Ever read any Tom Wolfe? Such a unique voice and applied equally well to fiction and non-fiction. The Right Stuff is a top 5 for me.
Keith Law: Bonfire of the Vanities. Hated it.

Rob: Taylor Trammell a top 25 prospect after this year?
Keith Law: Definitely not.

Johann Sebastian Vogelbach: What’s your take on the Mets trading deGrom? If they’re striving for a consistently competitive team, restocking the farm by selling sky-high on him for a Sale-like return I feel makes sense. But the Mets claim they prefer a “quick rebuild.” That would require the Wilpons to go empty their wallets this offseason which I have little faith in. I’m torn as a fan. Ultimately my take has been if they’re not getting a Hiura or Tatis Jr in return then no need to bother right now
Keith Law: I do think it will eventually be the right move to trade him and Thor. The “quick rebuild” stuff is wishful thinking.

Keith: Sorry bud, but no matter how much you want state enforced, mandatory vaccination, there’s lots of people (like me) who won’t allow that to happen. I’m not even against vaccines (everyone is free to choose), but to essentially make it criminal to dare question what for profit healthcare services produce is downright disgusting. But yeah, enjoy daydreaming about your future 1984-esque utopia where criticizing anything you don’t agree with is illegal. You’re a joke.
Keith Law: Cool strawman, dude. If you don’t want to vaccinate your kids, you just don’t get to send them to public school. There is no state that forces vaccination of everyone. And, by the way, Dr. Wakefield, the compulsory vaccines are barely profitable for manufacturers.

Michael: Just a comment. You should hit up Comet Ping Pong on Saturday night. Solid pizza and craft beer, and right next door to P&P. Most importantly, you’d be supporting the local establishment that was victimized in #pizzagate.
Keith Law: I absolutely plan to.

guren: If you were offered the same deal as Smart Baseball for a new work of fiction, but you needed to take a year off from your current employer, would you accept?
Keith Law: If I had an idea I felt passionate about and thought I could execute, sure.

Scott: Do you think Carter Kieboom can play second base? Currently blocked at 3B by Rendon, could you see him as the eventual long-term replacement for Murphy at second? And if so would he project there as a plus bat and a slightly below average glove? Thanks, just trying to figure out where he most likely projects for the Nats in the future.
Keith Law: He has to go to second base. Can’t stay at short. Doesn’t really have the arm for third.

Tom: Hey Keith, enjoy your chats AND your commentary regarding life in general. Anyway, rate these guys in order – Justus Sheffield, Jesus Luzardo, Casey Mize. Also who has the highest ceiling of the three?
Keith Law: All three will be on my top 50 next week…

Lenneal : Isn’t it funny how bothered certain people are about an NFL player kneeling during music during a game, in response to unrequited black murders, but those same *patriots* say nothing to Trump lambasting NATO and groveling to Putin? Or having Russia in the Oval Office after firing the FBI Director over a legitimate investigation that has nothing but bad facts. It’s almost as if religion and patriotism are being perverted for very flawed ideologies.
Keith Law: There may also be a racial angle to all of this. I don’t want to get too far out on a limb, though.

Johnny O: At what age do you start paying attention to prospects? International signing day is fun but hard to get excited about guys who likely won’t get to rookie ball until 2020.
Keith Law: When international guys first play in the US, I pay attention. Caliber of competition in the DSL (or the defunct VSL) is too variable.

Jeff: Does Rylan Bannon project as an MLB regular or more?
Keith Law: Less. College product boosted by a great hitters’ park.

Lenneal McKudu: Yeah OK about wOBA and wRC+ but has the industry warmed up to Drew Waters?
Keith Law: Some. Different scouts than saw him struggle and not show great effort in the GCL last summer.

Steve: What’s your opinion of Nathaniel Lowe’s breakout this year, raking in AA to the same extent he started the year in High-A?
Keith Law: Never seen him, but will on Sunday. 1b only and not young so he has a high bar to clear.

Janice The Muppet: Silly subject as it is so trivial but besides Snell anyone you are annoyed not making the all star game and who shouldnt have made it
Keith Law: I don’t care either – especially since ESPN didn’t ask me to do a snubs column this year which was fine with me – but how does Aguilar not make it?

Chris: If you were making the calls in Atlanta, would you move prospects for big league assets this year to make a run or wait it out and run with what you already have?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t trade any prospects whom internal evaluations had as part of the future. I think I said last week I’d deal the surplus dudes like Sims, not core pieces like Touki or Soroka (well, if healthy).

Oscar: France or Croatia: Who ya got?
Keith Law: I’m rooting for Croatia because they’ve never won – and I believe no country younger than the World Cup itself has ever won the Cup.

JR: You regularly get asked why hitters don’t bunt to beat a shift. Did you read Jerry Crasnick’s recent article where he interviewed several hitters and asked that question? It was very insightful for me to hear the players perspective. Basically, they all said if I get on first base, it still take two hits for me to score, so I’m trying to get to at least second base and I have to hit the ball in the air to do that. Oh, and bunting isn’t that easy to do against the type of velocity we face – it’s not an automatic single.
Keith Law: I did see that. The second part is a legitimate point, and something a lot of players would have to work on. The first part is wrongheaded – you’re better off on first base than on your ass in the dugout.

Dick: Is Telmito Agustin a GUY?
Keith Law: I think he can be, maybe isn’t yet but could become one.

Robert: Is there a player you saw at Winston Salem that hasn’t gotten a lot of prospect hype that you would like to see again?
Keith Law: I want to see Gonzalez again; he had a day off the second game I saw them.

Chris: Is there a particular skill or ability that is harder to scout than others? Defense, for instance, or in-game power or a pitcher’s control?
Keith Law: Fastball command for pitchers. Pure hit tool for batters, especially high school guys.

Tom: Keith, I know the Red Sox system is barren. Do they even have on prospect that projects as a possible everyday player or mid-rotation starter (not included just drafted Tristan Casas)? I look at their system and it’s just looks terrible.
Keith Law: They’re all hurt, aren’t they? I guess Mata might be one. Everyone else good in the system is on the shelf.

Rob: Does Micker Adolfo have star potential?
Keith Law: Yes.

The Bilmo: The vast majority of minor league players are there not because they are prospects, but to provide the few prospects with guys to play against. So I find it hard to get worked up over Tebow.
Keith Law: That’s true at the lowest levels. He’s now in AA, where that is much less true, and as I said above he’s blocking someone with more potential.

Donald: Hello Keith, draft related questions, when drafting 40 (give or take) players how many besides top 10 rounds do teams expect to sign? and what would be considered a great draft (besides the obvious trout harper) ? 3 average major league guys?
Keith Law: Three average big leaguers is a great draft. A lot of signings after the tenth round are just to fill out those short season rosters so the number will depend on how many spots you have open (holdovers, players debuting from the DSL).

Matt: The biggest winner in a Machado trade has to be Manny right? Won’t have to worry about a qualifying offer following him around.
Keith Law: Good point.

Chris: Given his performance and years of control, what type of return could Oakland get for Treinen? A Miller or Chapman-type return, or something less given his shorter track record? And would you still make that move?
Keith Law: He’s not at their level. But I like your line of thinking, trade him now while good and while there aren’t many closer types on the market.

Tony: I’ve read Kelenic might have been the #1 pick if he were 6 months younger. Does this really make that big of a difference? Looks like the Mets might have stole one SSS aside.
Keith Law: I disagree with that, but I think he might have been the #1 pick if he’d played the spring in southern California or Florida.

Zach: Imagine spending 200m on Trumbo and Davis, just to let Manny walk away. Wow what a bad utilization of resources. Well at least the O’s are big spenders in the int’l FA market….
Keith Law: My understanding is that Davis was the owner’s doing.

Jason: I know your general thought on the all-star game is to reward players who are actually very good over players with very hot starts. And I certainly agree with that. But where do you stand on a guy like Markakis? I feel like he has to be in given how good his half has been, and he’s not some random jobber. Agree?
Keith Law: Doesn’t really bother me.

Jack: Thank you so much for always sticking up for climate change prevention and for standing for the environment! We definitely need more public figures like you. How long ago was it that you were an iceberg?
Keith Law: Till that fucking ‘unsinkable’ boat hit me. I sure showed it who was boss.

danb: still buying Kingery?
Keith Law: Yes.

CD: Can you tell me anything about Andrew Vaughn, the Cal player that won the Golden Spikes award? Surprised he won against some upperclassmen who are more famous, and was the win justified?
Keith Law: His stats were great, but the Pac 12 was way down, and he’s a 1b only. I voted for Mize.

Jason: Coincidence that the 3 best breaking balls you saw in HS arms were all curves and the 3 have had extreme regression/injury?
Keith Law: All three had Tommy John. Is that because they threw great curveballs, or because they threw a lot of curveballs, or just because they threw a lot, period, because they were so good? Giolito was never overworked. Bundy was overworked very badly in HS.

John S: Despite his production (age/level issues), I was extremely surprised to see Buddy Reed selected to the Futures Game. Are we lacking decent OF prospects for the US team?
Keith Law: They didn’t have a true CF besides him, but I’m with you – he doesn’t belong at all, and is the worst player on the US roster. Daz Cameron deserved that spot.

Chris: At one point, Kevin Maitan was so well thought of that the Braves were willing to blatantly break rules to sign him. Now he’s performing badly in Orem with too many errors in the field, bad plate discipline, and not much hard contact. Are his problems fixable? Or is he just not the talent people thought he was?
Keith Law: Swing has regressed big time and he’s gotten thicker.

Mike: I know you’ve talked about mental health stuff before…my girlfriend is dealing with some serious depression combined with recent unemployment leading to financial distress. I’ve volunteered to assist with the cost of therapy as improved mental health would really impact her job search positively but she’s not willing to try anything. Any advice or suggestions for resources to look at for me to support her? Thanks so much.
Keith Law: It’s very difficult to help someone who doesn’t want it, and mental illnesses often lead sufferers to decline help for various reasons. Is there someone else in her life she trusts who might be able to guide her to a therapist? Or could you coax her into talking to her primary care doctor? My PCP in Arizona was the first to prescribe me something for my anxiety.

Jared: you said earlier that reports on Alec Bohm are “not good”…is that just his defense or everything? Did the Phillies waste another top 10 pick?
Keith Law: I think asking that five weeks after the draft is a bit premature.

Aaron Gershoff : Tell the guy arguing against mandatory vaccinations that they are in the best interest in the country. Healthy population = productive population.
Keith Law: Some people don’t care enough about others to let go of misguided beliefs of ‘freedom.’ I’d like to send them all a copy of the Social Contract, and some pictures of kids dying of measles.

Terry: Was Espinal good value in exchange for Steve Pearce?
Keith Law: Yes, quite good.

Chris: I recall you noting prior to his trade that Matt Harvey wasn’t washed up. Have you been surprised by how he’s pitched? Obviously not an ace but he looks like a decent 5th at this point.
Keith Law: Not surprised. And freed of the circus in NY, perhaps now he’ll fetch more in trade for the Reds than the Mets could get for him.

Oscar: Girlfriend and I picked up Lost Cities and Jaipur based on your recommendations and love them! Any recent two player games you recommend?
Keith Law: Patchwork. My daughter also loved Fox in the Forest, a cute but more luck-driven trick-taking game.

David: % Chance that Urias is a part of the Dodger’s future rotation? Looks like he’s back throwing between 88-91 according to reports. Does his particular type of should surgery make regaining command and/or control very difficult?
Keith Law: He also has to show he can hold that velocity. It’s a long way off.

Fat Stackz: What do you think of Kavanaugh buying Nationals tickets with a credit card? Should this preclude him from being nominated? I am skeptical of someone with so little financial responsibility being nominated as a Supreme Court Justice
Keith Law: I can think of better reasons to oppose his nomination.

James: “Giving up” on a player is too extreme in this case since he’s finally getting consistent ABs, but man, I was hoping for more from Desmond Lindsay this year
Keith Law: I was too.

Joe: Any Cincinnati food recommendations?
Keith Law: Sotto and Nada, both owned by the same folks.

Moe Mentum: Favorite Saturday Night Live cast member of all time?
Keith Law: Tough call between Eddie Murphy and John Belushi. Both geniuses in different ways.
Keith Law: Also, a sentimental thought for Phil Hartman, who was … dare I say it … the heart and soul of those great SNL squads.

Joe: Do you ever feel bad about yourself and your life for saying tim tebow is a washed up QB yet his athletic career has made him more of a successful man than you will ever be?
Keith Law: No. Not even for a fraction of a second.

Mike: “Symptom of the Universe” was recently named the best metal riff of all time. Fair? In trying to decide if that was even the best Black Sabbath riff of all time (Sabbath Bloody Sabbath, Faeries Wear Boots, even Neon Nights) I was reminded of the Scott Ian quote – “Tony Iommi wrote every heavy riff there was to write”.
Keith Law: Supernaut.

Richard Dempsey: Could you please give the context of you apologizing to foreigners while abroad? I too have been abroad during the Trump administration many times and have never come across a problem. Might I suggest that you were going out of your way to start the conversation if it indeed happened?
Keith Law: You might suggest that, and you’d be wrong, and kind of insulting too.

DaveAlden53: No question, just a compliment. In one of your recent letters, you noted how your daughter uses the word “peopley” to describe a place that be uncomfortably busy. My wife has Alzheimer’s, so struggles with crowds. I forwarded your letter to her and she now uses “peopley” often. Thanks for growing her vocabulary and communication options.
Keith Law: Well, I’m not going to get a better question/comment this week than that one, so I will end it here. Thank you so much for sending that along.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I hope to see many of you this weekend: I’m co-hosting a family board game night here in Wilmington on Friday at the Brandywine Hundred Library at 5 pm; speaking and signing books at Politics & Prose on Saturday at 6 pm with Jay Jaffe; and then I’ll be at the Futures Game on Sunday. The top 50 prospects update will go up Thursday and I’ll be back that afternoon to chat again. Thanks for reading!

Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

I was born in 1973, and watching Mister Rogers’ Neighborhood was a huge part of my early childhood, something I’d watch every day until I was old enough to go to school. Along with other PBS shows like Sesame Street, The Electric Company, Write On, and the later 3-2-1 Contact!, they made appointment viewing for me before the term even existed.

(Side note: My parents swear I loved the mid-70s show Zoom, but unlike the shows I mentioned above and a few others, I have zero memory whatsoever of Zoom, other than that You Can’t Do That on Television! borrowed its format and one time had its actors sing Zoom‘s theme song.)

So the new documentary Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, about the show Mister Rogers’ Neighborhood and to some extent about its star and creator, couldn’t be more squarely aimed at me. Featuring extensive interviews with almost everyone who was involved in the show, it gives viewers a behind-the-scenes look at the program and provides some historical perspective to the show’s importance, although I don’t think it does nearly enough to explain who Fred Rogers was and what drove him to create this seminal yet utterly counterintuitive television program for the youngest viewers.

Won’t You Be My Neighbor? focuses on the story of Fred Rogers from the advent of the TV show until his death in 2003, with just scant references to his life before he created Mister Rogers’ Neighborhood at Pittsburgh’s public television station WQED. Other than Betty (Lady) Aberlin, who was interviewed but declined to appear on camera (as she apparently felt too self-conscious), it seems like director Morgan Neville talked to everyone living who might have something to tell us about the show, including the actors who played Mr. and Mrs. McFeely, Officer Clemons, and Handyman Negri; producer/director Margy Whitmer and floor manager Nick Tallo; Rogers’ widow and two sons; and his longtime friend Yo-Yo Ma. Combined with clips from multiple interviews Rogers gave over his career about his work and the show, along with quite a bit of archival footage from the show itself and behind the scenes, the documentary manages to explain why Mister Rogers’ Neighborhood was so influential and yet seemed so out of place in an environment that thought children needed faster-paced shows and often used the medium simply to sell stuff to young viewers.

But there is a lot missing from this story, both about Rogers himself and the pre-history of his show. The film does include some clips of The Children’s Corner, the first show he created for WQED and the place where many of the puppets who appeared on the later show were first conceived, one of which was an ad hoc fill-in because the show was live and the film strip they had been airing had melted or otherwise broken down on air. It omits the show he created for the CBC, Misterogers, which contributed numerous elements to the later WQED show, and has no mention of his former colleague Ernie Coombs, who became Canada’s Mister Dressup, a show that had much in common with Rogers’ show and which (Wikipedia claims) contributed some songs to the latter.

There are a few hints along the way about Rogers’ life before the Neighborhood, but hardly enough to give us a full picture of his character. Rogers was 40 years old when the first episodes of the show aired, having joined, left, and returned to the seminary, and participated in at least two other shows before his big success. Of his childhood, we learn little; there’s a reference to “Fat Freddy” near the end of the film, but it’s barely explained (and if the pictures we’re shown are any indication, he seemed hardly overweight). He had a quixotic obsession with the number 143, which to him stood for “I love you,” including maintaining his weight at 143 for most of his adult life. That seems like something we might explore more, but other than two of his friends commenting on it being “weird” we get nothing more.

Instead, Neville chose to include some truly tangential material like the right-wing attacks on Rogers’ show and philosophy or the PSAs Rogers filmed after the 9/11 attacks, none of which is that interesting or elucidating on this man whose character still resonates and yet still seems too good to be true. Of all of the archive footage shown that wasn’t directly part of the Neighborhood, none seems to get at this conundrum more than the cringeworthy interview Tom Snyder conducted with Rogers, in which Snyder asks Rogers if he’s “straight.” While I know the question – coming right after Snyder asked “are you square?” – could simply be asking Rogers if his character is really who he is, there’s an undeniable subtext, one this documentary acknowledges, that people assumed Rogers was gay. It is unfathomable to my ears today that an interviewer would ask such a question, but at the same time, showing it now reminds the audience that people have questioned Rogers’ authenticity for a half-century now. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? is a beautiful trip down the nostalgia path, and does its part to convince the viewer that Mister Rogers is very close to who the real Fred Rogers was; unfortunately it does very little to tell us why.

Exit West.

Mohsin Hamid first gained global notice for his 2007 novel The Reluctant Fundamentalist, which became a best-seller, was shortlisted for the Booker Prize, and won numerous smaller awards for the Pakistani author. His 2017 novel Exit West has been nearly as acclaimed, making the shortlists for the Booker Prize and the National Book Critics Circle’s Fiction award, and even earning a nod from Barack Obama as one of the best books he read in 2017. Working with just a hint of magical realism, Hamid gives us a clear-eyed look at the refugee crisis from the perspective of a young couple, Saeed and Nadia, who fall in love in their unnamed, war-torn country (resembling Afghanistan), and manage to escape through a portal, only to find themselves transient through various stops where refugees are less than welcome.

The only gimmick Hamid employs in the book is the doors, these magic portals that appear and allow people to slip through them and emerge somewhere completely different in the world, at least until authorities find the door and attempt to block it. This allows Hamid to focus on the problems refugees face of resistance from native populations, of the obstacles they face toward assimilation, and of the strain the displacement puts on relationships, while skipping the just as real problems of getting out of the original country and, perhaps, dying en route to somewhere else. The horrors of migrants packed on to tiny, un-seaworthy vessels, or crammed in the back of overheated trucks, are legitimate, but including that part of the refugee experience might overwhelm the parts of the story Hamid wants to tell – the way wars or famines create populations of homeless refugees searching for little more than a safe place to live and work, much as they may have had before the crisis hit.

Nadia and Saeed live ordinary lives in what appears to be a moderate or even progressive Muslim country, with Nadia living alone as a liberated woman who has cut off her conservative family. The two fall in love just as the country begins its collapse, with fundamentalist rebels encroaching on their city and eventually taking it over and enforcing Taleban-like rules on the populace. (Hamid never names the country, the religion, or any of the forces, but the details he does provide sound an awful lot like Afghanistan under the rule of the Taleban, while the movements of the refugees after they exit through the first door resemble the flight of Syrians during their civil war.) After several small incidents drive Nadia from her apartment into Saeed’s home with his father – Saeed’s mother is killed by a stray bullet in the street – they hear of a door that will allow them to escape to somewhere else, beginning a journey that will take them through several doors, to Greece, to England, and eventually the United States, an odyssey that changes them both as individuals and alters the nature of their relationship, permanently, by the time they find a permanent home in California.

Although the primary hook in Exit West is the magic of the doors, which boil down the leave/stay decision to one of money and family, the strongest element of Hamid’s narrative is the tapestry of mundane details of the itinerants’ lives once the social contract of their home city begins to dissolve. There’s a run on a local bank, and in the throngs of people crushing to get to their money, men grope women in the crowd, including Nadia, knowing well that there will be no repercussions, an early sign that without that social contract people will behave like animals. Refugees grasp at what might, to us, seem trivial details that reinforce their humanity – a warm meal, an actual shower, possession of items we take for granted.

At each destination, Hamid presents a different vision of the refugee crisis, none more potent than his version of London, where a military attempt to remove migrant squatters fails, and a new partnership between the natives and the refugees emerges, not merely a détente but an attempt to create a better life for everyone. These are interspersed with brief scenes of other people who pass through doors in search of safety, freedom, or merely something different, presenting the doors as metaphor rather than merely as a plot device to skip over the brutal conditions of migration.

The displacement takes a toll on Nadia and Saeed as well; neither character is the same by the time their journey ends, at least for now, in California. Nadia is also the more interesting and well-developed of the two characters, both at the start of the novel and by the time the two have evolved over the course of the book. The power of Exit West, however, is that the theme applies to any characters forced by circumstance to leave everything behind and step through the first door that appears – without any idea where they’ll end up.

Next up: I just started N.K. Jemisin’s The Stone Sky, the final book in her Broken Earth trilogy that began with The Fifth Season.

Stick to baseball, 7/7/18.

I had two new posts for Insiders this week, one on the Futures Game rosters, which were announced on Friday; and a post of scouting notes on Orioles, Phillies, Rangers, White Sox, and Royals prospects I’ve seen in the last few weeks. That Futures Game column included Houston’s Forrest Whitley, but he was removed from his last start with “left oblique discomfort,” so I’m expecting him to be replaced on the roster before game day.

I have two book signings for Smart Baseball coming up this month. Next Saturday, July 14th, I’ll be at Politics & Prose in Washington, DC, signing books and talking baseball with Jay Jaffe; and I’ll be at the Silver Unicorn Bookstore in Acton, Massachusetts, on July 28th, hosted by store owner and former Fangraphs/Hardball Times writer Paul Swydan.

And now, the links…

Wise Blood.

Flannery O’Connor is a fascinating figure in American literature – a staunch Catholic who wrote macabre, misanthropic, even violent stories seem to stem from a mind like Cormac McCarthy’s, becoming a leader of the new Southern Gothic style before her death at 39 of complications from lupus. Her short story collection A Good Man is Hard to Find includes the title story, one of the creepiest I’ve ever read, a story that seems completely without hope and presents as dark a view as possible of humanity.

O’Connor wrote two novels, including Wise Blood, about a young man named Hazel Motes who decides he’s going to start a Church Without Christ, a sort of anti-church, not a church of atheism specifically but a church opposed to churches. If it sounds like a less than coherent philosophy, then you’ve got the idea, as Hazel is very mad and not very smart. He’s befriended by the teenaged zoo employee Enoch, an eager and socially inept youth who is looking for anyone to whom he can attach himself. Hazel’s half-hearted attempts to preach his anti-gospel are quickly subsumed by a local con man, who names his church the Holy Church of Christ Without Christ and starts collecting donations while steering attention away from Hazel. Hazel’s rage gets the best of him as he sees someone else profiting from his ideas, leading to violence and then a period of remorse marked by self-mutilation and asceticism.

Wise Blood is disjointed, and side characters and themes come and go without much bother, so it wasn’t surprising to see (after I read it) that O’Connor cobbled it together from previously written short stories and her master’s thesis (the first chapter). The one unifying element is Hazel himself, a damaged World War II veteran whose family has disappeared while he was away, and who returns believing in nothing at all – a pure nihilist, angry at the world and at the God in which he claims to disbelieve. He’s a comic antihero, in part because he’s a bit of a moron, and in part because so much of what he does goes awry. So while the novel does have a climax and long resolution, it’s more a connected set of stories around Hazel’s return from war and anti-religious fervor, culminating in his attempt to find redemption via masochistic means after committing a horrible crime.

O’Connor makes heavy use of symbolism in her works, none more here than the repeated references to characters’ eyes. We get the crooked preacher who pretended to blind himself with quicklime but is the first one to see through Hazel for what he is. Hazel is stopped by a police officer at one point whose eyes are ‘diamond blue.’ The crooked preacher’s daughter, named Sabbath Lily, decides she loves (or just wants) Hazel because of what she sees in his eyes – that he’s not just looking at you, but through you into the future. And the name Hazel Motes includes two allusions to eyes or sight, hazel as a distinctive eye color, and mote as a reference to Matthew 7:3-5 (“And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother’s eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye?”), which decries those who see flaws in others but are blind to faults in themselves.

But despite comic elements and text rich with metaphor and allusion, Wise Blood feels inconsequential; I read it, but never felt absorbed at all in the story, and found the redemption arc too inverted to connect with it. The side characters are all too one-dimensional and serve as props for Hazel’s actions, not as fully-realized individuals themselves. And the ending moves more into speculative fiction territory, losing any threads of realism we’d had earlier in the book. The Guardian named this one of the 100 best novels ever back in 2003, but I’ve read a few hundred novels better on both a literal and a symbolic level.

Klawchat 7/5/18.

Keith Law: Monuments put from pen to paper turns me into a gutless wonder. Klawchat.

Mitchell: Pre-season you raved about Paddack and said he has mid-rotation upside. Has what he’s done so far increased his upside in your mind?
Keith Law: No, nor should it, really. He’s been great, but that’s what a mid-rotation prospect with a plus-plus changeup should be doing at that level. There really aren’t that many guys with more upside than “mid-rotation” in the minors.

silvpak: yusniel diaz has continued his progression this year, putting up dramatically improved strike zone recognition (35 walks and Ks in 189 abs vs. 45/102 last year in 439), with upticks in slugging as well (albeit in tulsa). any changes in his long term outlook?
Keith Law: He’s healthy now, which makes a big difference. I don’t think there’s plus power in there but I do think he can hit for average with a high OBP, more in line with the player the Dodgers thought they were signing than what they’ve seen in the last two years.

Chris: As a Mets fan, Im in favor of trading deGrom and Thor. The team does not have enough talent to be a true WS contender even with those guys and should use the few valuable assets they have to build up the the org for years to come. I find the argument to keeping those guys fundamentally flawed bc I don’t see the Mets as more than a WC team even when firing on all cylinders.
Keith Law: Especially deGrom, whose value is probably at its peak, who has already blown out once, and who is a free agent a year sooner than Thor is.

Chris: Any thoughts on the Mets player development issues? Sporadic playing time for Amed Rosario and Dom Smith is so puzzling to me.
Keith Law: Same. Their handling of both kids has been weird, possibly deleterious, since they were recalled.

Dave: Klaw: Hope you and your family had a great Fourth. My question is about bunting against the shift. I don’t understand why lefties won’t at least attempt to drag one down the third base line. Is there some unwritten rule against this? I know it’s hard to bunt, but the occasional try might make teams think twice about playing their third baseman just left of second.
Keith Law: I assume you mean to try to push one down the 3b line, and I agree that yes it’s hard and yes it’s still worth trying. The short-term payoff is a free base. The long-term payoff is less of a shift. It’s worth having such hitters practice push bunts to see who can pull it off.

bernie: Do the Brewers have the logical pieces to go after a deGrom, or another type of arm who could be a Game 1 playoff starter? Do you see a great team in the NL? Who would you favor for the NL pennant right now?
Keith Law: Dodgers and Dbacks look like the best teams, Cubs not far behind, Brewers behind them. However, adding a #1 starter would certainly improve the Brewers’ odds of winning the Central which would in turn improve their odds of advancing (vs winning the wild card, even to host, and then playing a coin flip game). I think they have the pieces to get a deGrom but might be reluctant to deal that much talent from their system, given their payroll constraints.

Chris: Hi Keith, Mitchell White’s stat line has been pretty bad at AA, is there something physically wrong with him at this point?
Keith Law: He hasn’t really been healthy since spring of 2017.

Matt: If you’re the Nats do you start to Sell and retool for next year? What are the moves?
Keith Law: No.

Andres (Atlanta): Always a fan of your musical taste. Since it’s now July, what are your top 3 albums of the year so far?
Keith Law: I tend to think in terms of singles rather than albums. If you look at my playlists, you’ll see certain artists pop up again and again – Courtney Barnett, Wooden Shjips, Django Django, Snail Mail have all appeared a few times with songs from their latest albums.

Matt: Have a question on your view of Democratic Socialism. Is this a viable economic path or something where elements of it hold merit and value but the overarching principle flies too much in the face of free market? I just wonder how legitimatelt socialist democratic socialism is.
Keith Law: If you saw the Hannity graphic outlining the ‘horrors’ of Ocasio-Cortez’s platform, it bore little resemblance to actual socialism. Neither she nor any DSA candidates I know of are proposing nationalizing industries, for example. They are proposing an expansion of the social safety net, which is a progressive/liberal policy, one that socialists would embrace but not something that is inherently socialist. It’s also a policy shift worth discussing, since there’s evidence that, say, a healthier workforce is a more productive one and thus leads to more economic growth, but I don’t see the right having this discussion at all.

BE: The beat writers wrote about the Tigers shifting their approach to more athletic high upside guys in this years draft. Was that your take?
Keith Law: That’s not accurate, at least not based on who they took. Meadows is the one possible exception, a good athlete but not a huge upside guy, and he has a hitch in his swing he’s going to have to try to smooth out.

smell the glove: How reliable are defensive metrics? Which ones, if any, do you consider useful? I’ve seen smart people I respect all over the map with their opinions on this topic.
Keith Law: I discussed this in my book. I look at UZR and dRS and think they are directionally correct if the samples are large enough, certainly accurate at saying what happened but lacking the predictive precision we desire from other statistics.

Mike: Any idea what’s happened to Jose Albertos this year?
Keith Law: Looks like the yips to me.

JR: When you were in Europe, how tempted were you to just not come back given the buffoon we have for a President? Kidding aside, how were you treated when people found out you were American? With sympathy? bewilderment? anger? Just curious what more civilized countries think of us these days.
Keith Law: A lot of dismay, certainly. I apologized a lot for our policies and how we’ve treated other countries/leaders.

Greg: Hearing anything about Carter Stewart signing or not?
Keith Law: They all sign unless they fail a physical.

jake: what’s changed this year about justin dunn
Keith Law: A year older, holding his mechanics together a little better

Brett: Zac Lowther have any type of ceiling in the Bigs, or is this just him being too old for his level?
Keith Law: Low ceiling guy but may end up a good back-end starter. Huge extension in his delivery, high spin fastball, so hitters don’t see it even at 88-89.

Kyle: When is your midseason prospect list coming?
Keith Law: After the All-Star Break. Same time every year.

HankQQ: Any thoughts on the unsigned 1st rounders?
Keith Law: No. They all sign unless they fail a physical.

Jake: What are your thoughts of the Royals farm system after the draft/international signing period. Still bottom of the barrel?
Keith Law: Yes, still poor.

Tom: If the Braves were to trade Pache, what do you think the return would have to be right now
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re trading him.

Donald: Nick Madrigal is starting off at Winston-Salem. Do you agree with the aggressive placement?
Keith Law: I do.

Mike: Would you classify this year as a success or failure for Christian Pache so far?
Keith Law: Do I have to?

Jake: Where would you rate Singer, Kowar in terms of the Royals best prospects?
Keith Law: Lee is clearly #1 in that system. Kowar, Lynch, Singer, probably in that order, are behind him now.

Mike: So … Max Muncy! Thoughts?
Keith Law: Not really. We get these one-year flukes a lot.

Rob P: Is Javier Baez the most exciting player in MLB right now? Whether it’s his ridiculous swings, him stealing home or making an amazing defensive play he always seems to have a daily highlight reel.
Keith Law: Extremely fun to watch. Flawed, obviously. But for sheer pleasure of watching, I’m not sure I can name anyone better.

Chet: I would assume that Shane Bieber is here to stay for the Indians, but is he the front runner for AL ROY now?
Keith Law: Gleyber is out for ten days. He’s not dead.

Will: Thoughts on Mozeliak’s comments on Dexter Fowler?
Keith Law: To borrow a line from Pam, inappropes.

Mike: Is Johan Camargo the real deal?
Keith Law: No. Been pitched around a lot, inflating his BB and OBP.

Zach: Has the uptick in numbers from Hunter Greene been accompanied by an uptick in stuff? Think the Reds should/will move him to AA before the end of the year?
Keith Law: No, he was always throwing hard – he was 97-101 when he struggled, and there isn’t really an uptick from there. I see zero reason for them to jump him to AA from low-A – that would be totally irresponsible. He should go to high-A first.

Dave: Has Kebryan Hayes increased his stock this year? Looks like a legit starting 3B in majors. If develops more power, look out
Keith Law: This is the player I think most people, myself included, thought he’d become when he got out of the Florida State League (which seemed to really kill any power at all). I don’t think he’s a 20 HR guy but I think he’ll hit, get on base, have enough doubles power, and play grade 70 defense.

Brian: What is your best guess as to why the Cardinals – by all accounts a progressive, resourceful organization – chose not only to hire Mike Matheny, but retain him for years? I know superficially (very superficially) he’s gotten good results, but what do you think is even the non-persuasive rationale for what the Cards’ FO sees in him?
Keith Law: I have no idea. His flaws are very evident on the surface, and become more so whenever he tries to explain his bad decisions. There are so many better options out there.

Trevor: What kind of prospect would you expect back for Brad Hand? Kyle Tucker? Mejia? Groome?
Keith Law: You’re not getting Tucker or Mejia. Groome is out with TJ well into next year, so I imagine he’s available.

Ryan: Hey Keith, Pavin Smith is having a disappointing yet interesting year. Great BB and K rates, more power than last season, unimpressive batting average. What are you hearing about his season so far? Thank you!
Keith Law: talked to a few scouts who saw him and asked me why he was a first rounder. They may be overreacting to the poor performance, but it’s not a great sign.

Mike: If you were Alex Anthopoulos, how would you handle this deadline?
Keith Law: If you can improve the team by trading guys on the margins who aren’t part of the future – the Lucas Sims types – then do it. Trading significant prospects for short-term help would be really stupid, though. I’m shocked whenever Atlanta fans suggest it. You really want to trade a potential stud like Pache for a two-month rental?

Ivy: Do you believe in the whole “manager has lost the clubhouse” thing? If so, has Buck lost the O’s, or do you think they’re finally playing down to their talent level?
Keith Law: I believe a manager can lose the clubhouse; I don’t think it can ever be the primary explanation for a team underperforming. The roster just wasn’t very good coming into the year, and the years of overperforming, which involved a lot of good fortune, are probably over.

Matt: When assigning a grade to a prospects speed, is it as simple as just timing home to 1st/2nd sorting that way, or are there other considerations that go into that grading?
Keith Law: You still want to see if the player is faster underway. Some players are slow out of the box and faster going first to third. Jacoby Ellsbury always gave me bad times home to first even when he was a visible 7 runner.

Matt: Is Manny Machado really this bad at shortstop? His defensive metrics are horrible.
Keith Law: 740 innings is a very small sample for defensive metrics.

Thomas: In what order would you rank the Tigers’ top arms in their system? (Mize, Manning, Faedo, Burrows, and Perez). I assume Mize is 1.
Keith Law: Mize, Perez (if healthy), Burrows, Faedo.

Patrick: in your professional opinion, at what age is recommended for young pitchers to begin throwing breaking balls (curve, slider, etc)? I’ve heard too early can have a huge impact on elbow issues as they grow.
Keith Law: That’s a hypothesis that I don’t think is proven either way, but I do favor the advice of just having kids throw fastballs and some simple changeup so they learn a consistent throwing motion and can work more on locating. A 13-year-old who can spin the ball will end up using it all the time because hitters can’t hit it, and then he’s not learning anything either.

Dodgers top outfield prospect : What’s the difference between Alex verdugo and yusial Diaz ?
Keith Law: Very different profiles. Verdugo has more power and speed. Diaz looks like a more steady avg/obp type.

God: Tim Tebow, All-Star. I win, KLaw loses. Carry on.
Keith Law: A bunch of Tebags tweeted me about this, as if putting the washed-up QB was anything other than a publicity stunt to try to get more fans to go to the game. It’s sad that a minor league All-Star game isn’t reason enough for fans to show up (and it’s in Trenton, where I go all the time, a great park that’s super easy to get to).

tallmrj: What are your thoughts on some of the O’s class A pitching prospects like Hall, Lowther, Bauman, Hanifee, etc…? They have had a good first half.
Keith Law: Saw Hanifee on Tuesday and will write that up after I get my Futures Game preview post done. Lowther I mentioned above. Baumann is a power arm but probable reliever. Hall is the one I keep trying to see, but for whatever reason that team isn’t great about putting scheduled starters out there.

Jeries: Does Nick Madrigal have any chance at developing power like other short guys (Gennett, Albies, etc)?
Keith Law: Very little chance.

Carl: Are you encouraged at all by Matt Manning’s pitching as of late? Strikeouts keeps racking up and the walks have been held in check.
Keith Law: He walked 5 just a couple of starts ago, so, no.

wide awake in america: Since you’re a smart guy who’s figured out a lot, maybe you can help – have you figured out sleep? Do you have trouble sleeping on the road? Do you have trouble turning your mind off? I’m failing in this, and I hate to resort to medications for sleep (though I sometimes do). (If you need a baseball hook, pretend I asked about Mike Napoli. And this is a sincere question, you’re wise on many subjects.)
Keith Law: Read Matt Walker’s Why We Sleep. And don’t use those medications. They don’t work.

J: With the standard small sample size issues aside, can Tigers fans be excited about the improvement from Daz Cameron, Issac Paredes, and Matt Manning?
Keith Law: I’m a big Cameron fan. He’s not his dad, but I think we can all accept that and move on to appreciate what Daz is – at least a solid regular, maybe more, even if he’s never a superstar. I think the Tigers would be thrilled if Daz became a solid regular for six years.

EG: Any thoughts on Bryce Harper’s mediocre (by his standards) season? Batting average way down
Keith Law: Quality of his at bats seems to have declined the last month or so. (Bear in mind I was on vacation too, and missed about eight nights of games. I’m not sorry.) I don’t know specifically what’s eating him, but I wonder if the team faring poorly has him pressing to try to do too much.

Jake: What sort of return do you think the Royals could get for Whit Merrifield right now? Org depth? 4.5 yrs of control.
Keith Law: Org depth, maybe one mid-tier prospect. He’s 29 and the power surge from last year looks like a fluke now.

Dave: Did you envision Nola would become this good?
Keith Law: No, he’s really improved his secondary stuff since he signed. CB and CH both substantially better. Love watching him … I haven’t been to many games at CBP this year but if he’s pitching I’m more interested in going.

Logan: What’s your opinion of O’Neil Cruz?
Keith Law: He’s very tall.

Jeries: Who did you like better out of HS, Greinke or Carter Stewart?
Keith Law: I never saw Greinke out of HS – that’s before my time.

Marissa: Hi Keith. I am wondering your thoughts on David Peterson. I see that he’s not in the top 100 prospect lists and wondering if you agree with that or not.
Keith Law: He was on mine in January.

Old Tom Morris: I see you mention the yips often, and it’s such a good way to describe what you’re describing. It makes me wonder, do you play golf? Like golf? Watch golf? Or is TV golf a good nap, spoiled?
Keith Law: What is golf?

Jason: Re traveling in Europe, I know you were in Italy. Needless to say they have their own issues and really aren’t ones to talk.
Keith Law: Aside from the tu quoque fallacy you invoked, Italy’s social and environmental policies are way ahead of ours.

Rick Hahn: How impressive has Luis Gonzalez been? What’s his ceiling?
Keith Law: Everyday player. Not impressive when a college player tears up low-A, though.

Greg: Well aware of how it works with first-round picks usually signing unless physical issues, but that’s the question about Carter Stewart. Pipeline and others have reported medical concerns, and I was curious if you had heard anything.
Keith Law: I won’t report medical concerns about players, if I know them, until after the player has signed. Doing so could jeopardize the player’s leverage and any potential scholarship – and, legally, I’d better have proof beyond any doubt that what I heard was correct. So I just don’t.

Guest: Do you believe Jonathan India can handle SS at the big league level?
Keith Law: No, but I’d send him out as a SS and see how it looks.

John : Generally a big fan of Inciarte, but it feels like the Braves are wasting so much of Acuña Jr’s value in left. Is it just too difficult to get a comparably valuable player to Ender, but with tools shifted more towards the bat than fielding? Also keeping Pache and potentially even Drew Waters in mind for the next 4 years that Ender is under contract.
Keith Law: I have argued since last fall that they should shop Inciarte.

Randy B: Is Kyle Wright showing the same potential for mid-rotation starter with a half season+ under his belt?
Keith Law: A little more than that. I’d like to see fewer walks, but he’s also essentially gone from the SEC to AA.

JC: Its very #scoutingthestatline but, Touki Toussaint’s BB/9 continues to trend downward (in the good way) & was recently promoted to AAA. What’s the outlook for him?
Keith Law: Potential #2 starter, still improving. Was very raw when he was drafted but had athleticism and a golden arm. Now he’s showing feel for three pitches and his control has gradually improved over a long sample now.

PhilG: Hey Keith what games are on your tabletop recently?
Keith Law: Tried Rising Sun, which is good but i think really plays much better with five than with three. I just got a review copy of Carthage to try out.

HugoZ: If I’m a fan of a contender, is there a case for hoping my team’s players won’t make the all-star team so they’ll have the extra days of rest?
Keith Law: Absolutely.

here’s your future: In the year 2030, there will be ____ MLB clubs? And will the divisions or playoff structures be radically different?
Keith Law: I could see 32 teams. I don’t think we have the markets to support more than that.

Jeries: Is Luis Robert’s thumb injury one that can linger throughout his career?
Keith Law: That would really surprise me, but it has certainly ruined his 2018. I’m hoping he’ll be in the AFL; that’s twice now that he’s gone on the shelf a day before I was scheduled to see him.

Larry: Atlanta is one of the few teams that have zero reported international signings. They’re still allowed to sign guys up to 300k this year, but it doesn’t look like they have yet. Is that strange a few days after the deadline? Are they planning to trade their money?
Keith Law: That isn’t strange. A lot of lower-dollar signings aren’t done immediately or aren’t widely reported.

Bill: Is Gavin Lux becoming a guy?
Keith Law: I’m a Lux fan, but bear in mind that the Cal League South is a great place to be a hitter. Rancho is a hitter’s park, and he’s got 9 games at Lancaster already (16 for 44, 2 hr, 6 doubles). So I don’t want to get too far ahead until he shows some of this is real when he gets to Tulsa.

trevor: will Tebow ever play a game in the majors?
Keith Law: I have zero doubt in my mind that he will. Probably in September, because the Mets are so bad, and they’ll decide this is a good way to get attention and more fans to the park.

Max: Why is Cavan Biggio not getting much love at AA? Is he being overshadowed or is he not that good a prospect?
Keith Law: He’s not a great prospect; he’s not a good defender at 2b, and while he has power he’s not that great a hitter, lacking good bat speed. He’s also kind of stopped hitting in the last five weeks or so after the crazy start.

Carl: Have you watched GLOW on netflix?
Keith Law: No. Currently watching The Leftovers and belatedly catching up on Archer (S6).

Jimmy: Dbacks system seems way too light for a Machado deal … pundits keep saying Duplantier would be main piece … ughh why would the Orioles trade w Dbacks ? Their system is so light
Keith Law: There is less than no chance the O’s people clear Duplantier, who is hurt again with a shoulder (excuse me, bicep) issue, given their history of killing guys with trivial medicals.

BassmanUW: Re: Ocasio-Cortez and the DSA, I think one point of confusion is that the DSA does have a long history of pushing for eventual nationalization of industry. Whether or not that’s still their official viewpoint, which on its own is hard to tell, they clearly have taken a bigger tent mentality to support candidates who are more in line with European Democratic Socialists, where focus is primarily on social safety net.
Keith Law: I wonder if calling themselves “Social Democrats,” as some of those European parties do, would help. Probably not. They’re going to be pilloried as communists, when their policy proposals are worth a reasonable discussion given the rising issues of economic inequality, loss of jobs to automation, and continued rising costs of health care.

Ed: Do you think MJ Melendez is behind all of those Royals prospects you listed?
Keith Law: I’m sure he is.

Anthony: Do you ever attend Saberseminar?
Keith Law: Once, but it has conflicted with something else on my calendar the last four years. I am not going this year.

Scott B.: Any Wilmington/Newark food recommendations?
Keith Law: Cocina Lolo is my favorite in the area. Two Stones is very good, as is Terrain just over the line in PA for finer dining. Also love de la Coeur, which has two locations in Wilmington.
Keith Law: Oh, and Bread & Buttercream in north Wilmington is an incredible artisan bakery with real European breads.

Jimmy: Nolan Gorman been raking … way too early … but still shocked he fell into Cardinals lap
Keith Law: I’m not shocked, given his spring, but I think they have to be thrilled to get that kind of upside at that pick.

Andy: Shohei is being brought back to hit. Will hitting hurt his elbow more than just resting? It seems the ship has temporarily sailed on surgery.
Keith Law: I really don’t know the answer to that – whether swinging the bat poses any additional risk to the elbow.

Patrick: Probably should have put my name in the first time I asked: Is what CC Sabathia has been doing the past few years smoke and mirrors, or is this something sustainable for him (at least through this year?)
Keith Law: I think it’s sustainable. Plenty of pitchers have good second acts at lower velocity by learning to work more with changing speeds and improving their command. (Plenty more can’t do it, of course.)

Matt : Thanks for taking the time to chat Keith. What’s your take on a guy like Ronny Mauricio? 17 years old, great start so far, except he still has 0 walks in over 60 at bats now. Any reason to be concerned?
Keith Law: Dear god, no. It’s 60 AB, and he’s not just 17, he’s barely 17. He’s 21 months younger than Jarred Kelenic. Stop looking for reasons to worry.

Jason: Considering how against the Hosmer signing you were, would a quantity package for Thor make sense for the Padres? They have a lot of players who need to be protected this year and next
Keith Law: No, it wouldn’t, not with what they have coming.

JB: Read somewhere that Bo Bichette has looked better at SS this year. Chances any better than 50/50 he can remain at SS, at least for the first several years of his big league career?
Keith Law: He hasn’t looked better at SS this year – I’ve seen him, talked to scouts who have. I really don’t think he stays at short.

Dan: Zach Eflin’s results look good but what about the scouting? Do you think he can be a mid-rotation guy in the long run?
Keith Law: Yes. Throwing harder across the board this year. Fastball is better, slider is playing up with more velocity (breaking stuff has long been his big weakness).

Guest: Any reason why Jon Gray got sent down? His FIP reflects that he still isn’t pitching terrible, and his K:BB numbers are as good as ever
Keith Law: FIP doesn’t do well with pitchers who are giving up a lot of hard contact – its assumption breaks down on those arms. And Gray was giving up a lot of hard contact. Some of that is the ballpark, of course, and I think if he pitched anywhere else we wouldn’t even be discussing this. But I wonder if the demotion was a mental breather too, since as you said, there’s nothing wrong with his stuff and he’s still doing some things well.

Billy: What is the best way to pay for college and healthcare for everyone? Are you comfortable with paying over 50% in income taxes, which is what a lot of economists believe it will take to implement a system close to what the DemSocs are promoting?
Keith Law: I’d much rather see a reduction in our defense budget before we get to histrionics over tax rates – but if you’re asking me would I pay higher income taxes, enough that I’d notice the difference, to help provide universal health care? Yes, yes I would. (And the cost of college is even more convoluted – by making loans so easy to acquire, we’ve enabled colleges to raise tuition at rates beyond inflation for two decades.)

Garrett: Keith do you buy this hitting from Taylor Ward? I know it is the PCL league but he also hit well in Mobile early in the year. Could he be legit?
Keith Law: It’s the PCL. I’m out.

Mikey: Jared Kelenic continues to do nothing but hit in the GCL. do you feel he should remain there or move up to Kingsport or even Brooklyn by the end of the year?
Keith Law: I’m all in on him, but he’s 19 so moving him up is a great idea.

Mike: Hey Keith, what kind of return should the Jays expect for Happ?
Keith Law: Best SP on the market? Granted that’s a backhanded compliment this year, but they should hold out for a good package, one with two real prospects in it.

James: Tatis Jr is pretty awesome. At what point do the strikeouts become worrisome?
Keith Law: As I said earlier, don’t look for reasons to worry. He’s 19 in AA, one of the youngest players above A-ball, and his K% was only really bad in April – he’s at 26% since May 1st.

Rob: Do you think the Cubs have buyers remorse on Yu Darvish? Granted he’s been hurt but he has also said some very stupid things.
Keith Law: I would guess they do, more for the injuries than the stupid things, which were stupid.

Michael: After Eloy and Robert, which White Sox outfield prospect do you like the most going forward?
Keith Law: Adolfo.

Brett: You’ve always said to be patient with Buxton. Is it okay to officially think this is what he will be offensively for the majority of his career?
Keith Law: Buxton has barely played this year. I’m curious what you “officially” think he’s done this season.

RJ : Was there ever a chance Manny Machado stayed with Baltimore after the 2018 season? What he’s said and hasn’t said over the years, I always figured he wanted to play in a big market.
Keith Law: Never. I don’t think they were ever going to be able to afford him, and I have long gotten the sense he didn’t want to play for that coaching staff either.

Zach: Love how a certain GM can be anti-porn but pro-second-chance-for-a-child-abuser. Party of family values!
Keith Law: Indeed, the anti-porn stuff is weird, not backed up by actual science, and I think may violate employment laws (you can’t force employees to listen to your religious crusades at the work place). Also, aren’t the Royals the last Pride Night holdouts? I may have forgotten a team.

Skip: Your hatred of Tebow is comical. Methinks you would be driving the Kaepernick bandwagon if he decided to try baseball, as his politics are more to your liking.
Keith Law: If Kaepernick tried to play baseball now, I’d judge him exactly as I’ve judged Tebow: as the player he showed himself to be on the field.

Logan: Any specific reason the Twins are having so much patience with promoting Royce Lewis?
Keith Law: He’s 19. I’d say arguing for a promotion to high-A is impatience.

Mike: Would a package of Kyle Wright, Luiz Gohara, and Cristian Pache be enough for Syndergaard? 4 years of a career 2.59FIP is very intriguing.
Keith Law: Three years, no? That’s a lot of talent to give up, though.

A big dumb idiot: I’m likely just blinded by Gleyber and Soto, but are top prospects better earlier in their careers than they used to be?
Keith Law: I feel like we’re seeing more guys come up at 21 or younger and succeed immediately than we did even ten years ago.

Leo: When talking about reliever usage, or overuse, is it more important to look at the number of games pitched or the amount of innings pitched?
Keith Law: Both. Throwing 90 innings in 90 games – thus with fewer days off – isn’t the same as 90 innings in 60 games.

Jeff: I know he’s old for his level (high-A), but is Laz Rivera a potential diamond in
the rough for CWS?
Keith Law: Saw him for about 8 AB too. Three horrendous strikeouts to start it out – totally overmatched by a LHP with some deception – but I saw him hit a (Laz) rocket out the second game. Probably worth bumping him to AA, since he’s 23, to get a better test of his abilities. I doubt he’s really that much of a prospect, but he does have bat speed and obviously more hand strength than I first realized.

TJ: Klaw, at what point in the draft do GMs start thinking, “I would be happy if this guy just became a decent major league player”?
Keith Law: If they’re honest with themselves, by the second round.

Brian: How many people out there realize that Daz’s dad was a superstar for a few years?
Keith Law: Not enough? That’s just my perception.

Hedonismbot: Justus Sheffield has had some sold starts lately. Think he makes a start in the majors soon?
Keith Law: Maybe in September. I’m a big fan though.

Santiago: any standouts on the Aberdeen roster?
Keith Law: Adam Hall is interesting. Some arm strength guys in the bullpen. That’s it.

Juan Soto: Did you underestimate me? (from 1 to 10, how much?)
Keith Law: No.

Touki Toussaint : Why am I not getting any love on top 100 lists?
Keith Law: I think you were on mine more than one year.

Adam: Type of prospect return you expect for Rasiel Iglesias? Top 20 sort of guy?
Keith Law: Top 20 in baseball? No. Much lower.

Chris: I’m wary on Amed Rosario’s bat. Long swing with no discernible pop. You buying long-term?
Keith Law: I am.

Ricky: Do you see Carter Kieboom turning into a solid MLB player?
Keith Law: Yes. More likely off SS. Can hit, great instincts.

DRL: Hi Keith. Love your baseball/prospect knowledge, but absolutely can’t stand your blatant disrespect for our president and your liberal rants on twitter. (not that any of that matters, we don’t all have to agree), but Baseball, Americas past time is made up of way more hard working republicans than the hand out wanting liberals. I think if you were to keep you’re political opinions to yourself, you would probably do better. (don’t have to post this, just wanted you to hear). Thanks.
Keith Law: I’m doing just fine, snowflake. Maybe keep your advice to yourself next time.

Dr. Bob: Is it fair to say that Tebow has outperformed expectations (at least, at times) but is still a long ways from ever being a real prospect?
Keith Law: You could. I don’t concern myself with that – he’s either a prospect or he’s not, and I say he’s not.

Hedonismbot: How much longer do the Yankees run Bird out there? He’s supposedly healthy now and had looked terrible.
Keith Law: For all the time he missed, he hasn’t been that bad. I don’t think he’s a problem for them right now.

Pat D: Have you heard that a Trogdor board game will soon be hitting Kickstarter? I’d imagine you’ll at least try that out, right?
Keith Law: I have. I think they’ll have a demo at GenCon.

Noah: What’s your thoughts on Luis Medina? Potential top of rotation upside?
Keith Law: Big upside, but I’d like to see some success from him before we get that excited.

Scott: A’s are in a weird spot. Definitely playing well, almost no chance of the playoffs, The old guys (Lowrie, Davis) are carrying a lot of the load. Should they just ride this season out with what they got and hope Puk and Cotton are good for 2019?
Keith Law: I’d shop the ‘old guys’ because they really aren’t in an economic position to be complacent.

JR: Given there is nothing going on in the sports world on the days before and after the All Star game, when MLB be smart to move the MLB draft to those days to get more media attention? Or would teams be against pushing it back because that also delays getting the players signed and playing in your organization by at least a month?
Keith Law: Everything you said there is correct. It would boost attention, but it would hurt the short-season teams. Also, what do players whose seasons ended in late April do for two months? Do you go play summer ball and risk injury or some drop in performance? I’d really like to see draft night be an MLB holiday, with only day games and thus nothing at night but the draft.

Mark: Does Corey Ray still project to be a solid MLB player? I wish the average was higher and the K% was lower, but at least he’s not striking out more than last year and the BB% is up. The physical tools still seem quite good.
Keith Law: Yes, but probably just a solid regular, which is a disappointment for me since I thought he had star potential at Louisville.
Keith Law: I had a scout tell me he’s back to no trigger/toe tap. He needs something for timing and weight transfer – at least a small tap and stride, maybe a full leg kick.

Rob: Favorite metal album of the half-year? My vote is Rivers of Nihil.
Keith Law: Tribulation.

Kevin: Any suggestions for getting a 4 year old to learn to read?
Keith Law: Just read with him/her. Kids learn when they’re ready. We never pushed our daughter, even though you all know I’m an obsessive, heavy reader, and she got there on her own time. She’s read well ever since she got the knack.

David Rave: How was your vacation? Where’d you go?
Keith Law: Dublin, Monaco, Genoa (my cousins live there), Milan for a night, back to Dublin. Ambitious but we had certain boxes to check, including my daughter’s desire to see the second smallest country in the world, and the fact that my cousins are in Genoa but not near a major airport. It was great and also exhausting.

Eric: Yankees are a pride night holdout, which as a yankee fan is disappointing
Keith Law: Yes, that is very disappointing.

Schwemm: You mentioned the top 4 in the Royals systems earlier. Too much swing and miss for Matias?
Keith Law: And not enough patience. If anyone can find a player at 19 or younger in low-A who had a season like his, please send it over. Gallo walked more, and you see what he’s become, for better and worse.

Jeff: Jim Bowden normally has some wacky trade ideas this time of year. He recently said CLE should trade Bieber and Mejia to CIN for iglesias and Garrett. Does he think he’s still running the Reds?
Keith Law: That’s a comically bad offer for CLE.

Brian: Whats something you now believe about evaluating players that you did not believe 5 years ago?
Keith Law: I think I’ve been too dogmatic on bad deliveries. I’m much more open-minded now about them. Also, I’m looking more at guys with Goldschmidt-like profiles – no big tools, but quiet approaches, good swings with enough loft for line-drive HR power. That’s why I never dismissed Hoskins as a prospect – he didn’t have a clear 6 on the scouting report but did a lot well and things just really worked at the plate.

David: Hi Keith. Dealing with a significant other who has always had anxiety. Seems worse now, and particularly after birth of child, and worried it is impacting her view of me. In your experience is that possible? How best to deal with it.
Keith Law: If she’s willing to get help, even counseling for the two of you, that’s a good start. You can’t help someone with mental illness who doesn’t want to be helped, though.

Joe: Any signings or non-signings surprise you in the draft? Or alter your evaluation of a team’s haul/picks? (with the deadline is nearing..)
Keith Law: Ask me next week. We get these “he’s not signing!” things every year and then everyone but one or two guys in the top ten rounds ends up signing.

Peter: What are some of the big takeaways you have heard from scouts on the talent on the Cape this summer?
Keith Law: League just started two weeks ago. It’s way too soon for that, with a month or so left.

Hedonismbot: Are you a fan of Castles of Mad King Ludwig? If so, any helpful hints? Definitely has been a hard game to pick up and teach, but it looks like a great game.
Keith Law: I’m not, but I want to try the Palaces standalone sequel game, which works with identically-sized tiles.

Ray: Random player from the past question: Kal Daniels. Why did he retire so young? Injuries? He had some really good season!
Keith Law: Injuries. I loved that guy.

Grant: Do Vladdy and Eloy get healthy in time for Futures, assuming they’re on the rosters?
Keith Law: Neither.

Robert: Anything positive to report on what you saw from Blake Rutherford?
Keith Law: No. Weak contact over and over.

Jay: Have you tried Istanbul on iOS? Enjoying it quite a bit. Have you played the physical version?
Keith Law: I loved the physical version, have the app but haven’t tried it yet. Still grappling with the Scythe pre-release alpha. I got 99 points in one game, and still one of the bots beat me with 102. I said some bad words.

Travis Toots: Anything you see in Devers that you think needs a tweak or adjustment? Not in panic mode like some others at all, just curious if you’ve noticed anything that he needs to work on in particular besides just experience
Keith Law: Not in the least. Going to be a star.

Igiloo McDaichly: There’s a school of thought I’ve seen advanced online that suggests that player contracts should be described as “bad” for the team, because that’s the fans siding with the team over the player in regards to compensation, and owners are billionaires anyway and can afford to pay players way more than they are currently making. Is that a reasonable critique, in your opinion?
Keith Law: Player opt-outs? Those are bad for the team. If you’re speaking more generally of fan sentiment against paying players more, then I agree but I think that’s a bigger and more complex issue of education.

re: DRL: Tell DRL I am a 80-hour a week working Democrat who loves your baseball and political takes. Tell him to trash his lazy stereotypes.
Keith Law: And really, what I say on Twitter is a fraction of what I believe about our current political environment.

Ray: Did you attend college with Rivers Cuomo? Just a random thought I had while listening to Weezer recently.
Keith Law: He went after I did.

trout and harper: What did you think of Trout and Harper right when they broke in? Did you have a preference? Are you surprised Trout is THIS good and Harper is a tiny bit stagnated? (Obviously still a star)
Keith Law: Had them 1-2 as prospects while they were eligible. I thought Trout was a superstar, but would really never suggest any player would become Willie Mays, as he has.
Keith Law: OK, that was extra long but after two weeks off I thought it only fair to answer more questions. I will be back next week to chat, and the week after as well, on the day that the top 50 prospect rankings go up (probably the 19th). I have two book signings coming up, July 14th at Politics & Prose in DC and July 28th at the Silver Unicorn in Acton, MA. Thanks as always for reading and for all of your questions – I’m sorry I only get to a small fraction of them. Keep an eye out for my Futures Game roster preview tomorrow morning!

The Death of Stalin.

The Death of Stalin (amazoniTunes) , the latest film from writer/director Armando Iannucci, is a rollicking farce that is only loosely based on the death of the dictator in question and the mad scramble for power in the vacuum that resulted, with Iannucci moving events and even people around to suit the story. It’s frequently funny in a face-palming sort of way, even when the story is more barely contained chaos than structured plot, and a reminder to me that I need to spend some time with Iannucci’s past and better-known work, including In the Loop and the HBO series Veep.

Stalin appears as a character early in the film, mostly so we can see the rest of the Central Committee playing obsequious Ed McMahons to his Johnny Carson, laughing at nonsensical jokes and trying hard to stay off of Stalin’s legendary enemies lists, people to be rounded up and exiled or, more likely, shot after torturing, with one of the Committee members appearing on the lists the night that Stalin takes ill. (His death is also fictionalized – he did die of a cerebral hemorrhage, but the proximate cause, in the film, is fictional and played for laughs.) After a brief bout of will-he-die-or-won’t-he, he finally kicks it, and the chess game to succeed him starts, except it’s chess as played mostly by people who’ve never played anything more than checkers, except for the scheming Nikita Khrushchev (Steve Buscemi) and the odious Lavrentiy Beria (Simon Russell Beale). The factions behind these two are fluid, often in a nearly literal sense as when the two sides try to squeeze past each other to be the first to offer emphatic condolences to Stalin’s daughter Svetlana (Andrea Riseborough).

Georgy Malenkov (Jeffrey Tambor) temporarily became the Soviet premier in Stalin’s death, but Khrushchev wrested much of the power away from him in the nine days afterwards, which roughly corresponds to the events shown in this film. Tambor plays him as a seasons 4/5 George Bluth with more of a temper, generally a step behind everyone else and thus easily outplayed by Khrushchev and Beria throughout the story. The fact that everyone seems to be operating at a different speed, often missing things right in front of their faces, provides much of the humor in the film and all of those face-palm moments, as one character says or does something that others completely miss or just fail to understand.

The second half of the film, where the real machinations start up, kicks in when the army arrives, led by Field Marshal Georgy Zhukov (Jason Isaacs, chewing scenery left and right), and Khrushchev cooks up his final scheme to wrest control of the Committee for himself by throwing Beria under the bus. From that point, the humor shifts from the almost slapstick, misunderstanding-driven comedy of the first half to a mixture of high- and lowbrow farce, from the game of telephone the leaders all play while standing around Stalin’s casket to the antics of Stalin’s drunken son Vasily (Rupert Friend).

There’s no point in this film where it’s not funny, which saves it from the fact that the plot is rather slapdash and doesn’t hew closely at all to real events. The dialogue never stops, and Iannucci isn’t afraid to mix some bathroom humor (about up to my tolerance for that stuff) in with political gags, notably in the Keystone Kops routine after Stalin’s unconscious but not-dead-yet body is first discovered. The framing of the film around a recorded concert and vengeful pianist doesn’t work well, and some of the other Committee members seem superfluous to both the plot and the comedy, although it was great to see Michael Palin (as Vyacheslav Molotov) on screen again.

The Death of Stalin isn’t a great movie, or a particularly sharp satire, but it is very funny, often with jokes that build on top of each other as scenes become increasingly absurd. (Buscemi’s dance around Tambor at the funeral is beyond description and wonderfully choreographed.) I laughed, often, and then forgot much of the plot once the film ended – and the incongruous if generally accurate ending does burst the comic bubble too. The humor is smart, but the rest of the story doesn’t back up the humor with anything of substance.