Keith Law: Cause only when I try am I happier to see. Klawchat.

Tyler Y.: All SSS caveats apply, but the A’s have already gotten one uncharacteristically good turn out of a mediocre (at best) rotation. After last years chicken salad out of chicken sh#$ performance, is there something Oakland is doing to coax a better performance out of the Brett Anderson’s and Aaron Brooks’ of the world than anyone could possibly expect? Or is this all just defense and ballpark (in which case, maybe they are smart to invest less in SP).
Keith Law: No, I think it’s ballpark, defense, and good luck. Their ERA through that one turn is far better than their peripherals might imply.

Jay: I suppose I understand why some people are upset at the upcoming 3 batter minimum rule, but, count me amongst the fans of the rule. Commercial breaks in the middle of an inning are the worst. And, even really bad RPs with terrible splits have a 35% chance of a 1-2-3 inning
Keith Law: I thought a 2 batter minimum would do it. I agree that mid-inning breaks are the worst actual pace-of-play problem (as opposed to overall game length, which I think is what many people mean when tey say “pace of play”).

CH: Do you think Keuchel and Kimbrel end up sitting out this year? Seems more likely by the day.
Keith Law: No, and I don’t think it’s becoming any more likely, either.

Boilermaker: Keith, thanks for the chats. If mlb goes to robot umps for balls and strikes, what does that do to the value of catchers who are good pitch framers? Assuming it nullifies that value, do you think teams are considering that when they negotiate catcher contracts now?
Keith Law: It will nullify that value – as it should – but I don’t think teams are thinking that far in advance.

Jay: My memory is not what it was, but I remember Hunter Greene being a top SS prospect at the time of the draft. Is pitching that scarce when it’s more beneficial to accept near certain injury and a lost year of development than it is to develop a prospect as a position player that can be in the MLB quicker and more than likely have a longer career?
Keith Law: No, he was a great defender at short with some power but a below-average hit tool. He was and still is a much better prospect on the mound.

Greg: If you ran the Red Sox what kind offer would you make to Mookie?
Keith Law: I’d start at Trout and expect him to want far more. He’s worth it, but then again, I think Trout’s deal undervalued him a little bit too.

Jerry: Could the flurry of extensions and the adding of Tatis, Jr, Jimenez, etc to opening day rosters be a bargaining move by the owners to try and fend off a work stoppage?
Keith Law: I do not believe so. I don’t see how that would work anyway, since there are, what, a minimum of 750 MLBPA members?
Keith Law: (I’m blanking on whether all 40-man players are in the union or if they need a day of service.)

Marshall MN: Hi Keith, my mom was recently diagnosed with an incurable terminal illness (I am not fishing for sympathy), and it is insane how quickly the naturopath quacks come out of the woodwork to offer remedies to solve this. It is always done with “best intentions” of course, but it is getting very hard to keep my temper in check with these fools.
Keith Law: I’m very sorry to hear that news, Marshall, but please, lose your temper on those quacks. Naturopathy is woo. It’s just bullshit to separate desperate or gullible people from their money.

Jerry: Has your opinion on Kyle Tucker changed any? I believe the underlying numbers that show he was unlucky in his brief time in the majors in 2019. At the same time I’ve read that some in the organization are souring on his long term outlook. I feel like it would be a panic move and big mistake to move him.
Keith Law: My opinion hasn’t changed, but if they trade him for someone who helps them right now, I wouldn’t necessarily call it a mistake. It all depends on the return – maybe two years of a good major league starter now would justify trading six years of Tucker.

Darren: Hi Keith, so Eric Lauer was the opening day starter for the Padres, which was unexpected. Good young pitcher, but what do you see as his upside?
Keith Law: Fourth starter. Maybe a little below-average over the course of his career. But a starter.

Jerry: What’s your impression of Laureano? Was he projected to be this good? Could the Astros have gotten more for him?
Keith Law: Ramon? 2 WAR player last year. That’s probably about right. I said good things about him after his AFL in 2016, but didn’t put him on my top 100. The Astros’ mistake was altering his swing, which led to the bad 2017 and loss of his value.

John: Thoughts/reactions to the news that Hunter Greene is getting Tommy John surgery?
Keith Law: Disappointed, but hardly surprised – of the three major prospects I can think of who had similar elbow issues last year, two have had TJ (him and Dunning), and Sixto is heading to extended rather than to double-A. I don’t think this is a huge hit for Greene other than pushing his timetable back a year. The funny (peculiar) part is that, as so often happens with guys right before TJ, he apparently looked fantastic in Arizona. Puk had that last year too and then blew out.

Jerry: Nick Tanielu. Possible MLB contributor or just Spring Training noise?
Keith Law: I don’t even look at spring training stats so I don’t know what the noise would be. I don’t think he’s even a bench bat.

Steve: Twitter sometimes recommends tweets liked by who I follow, and frequently recommends tweets that you like. I know “liking” a tweet does not necessarily mean endorsement, but have noticed you like several pro-abortion tweets of late, and was curious how you use science to inform your stance on that issue. Can a mother abort her fetus at 4 weeks, 8 weeks, or 32 weeks? Where do you draw the line (if anywhere)?
Keith Law: I’m not “pro-abortion.” I am pro-choice, and I oppose any intrusion of religion into our secular government. As for your second question, you didn’t give me enough information to answer. If that fetus at 32 weeks is nonviable or going to die shortly after birth, shouldn’t that be a decision between the pregnant woman and her doctor, with no input from you or me?

Scott: Red Sox fan from Delaware…..heading to Frawley Stadium this weekend to see Salem…anyone on their roster that would be of interest?
Keith Law: You can cross-check the Salem roster against my Red Sox prospect ranking: https://klaw.me/2GtRDcK

Evan: True / False: Michael Conforto will end the year as the most valuable player on the Mets? Pitchers included.
Keith Law: I’ll go with true. Always been a huge fan of his bat.

J.P.: Thoughts on the Acuna extension?
Keith Law: Feels like a bad deal for him. I understand any player that age taking the security of the deal, but even considering his lack of leverage in 2019-20, if he becomes the player we all expect him to become, this will be a huge windfall for Liberty Media.

Kyle: KeBryan Hayes is on a June call-up path or does he need a full season remaining in the minors?
Keith Law: June sounds good to me. Don’t think he needs a full season or close to it.

Tadd: If Andujar does need the season-ending shoulder surgery, is there somebody on your Yankees radar who would be an obvious replacement?
Keith Law: Internally? I don’t think so. I guess Estrada could slide over there but he’s not what they would want.

Juwan: If Robles develops 25 hr a year power, is he a superstar?
Keith Law: Yes but nobody I spoke to about him this winter thought he’d end up with that kind of power.

Deke: How hard is it for you to overcome initial evaluations on a player that don’t pan out? I was right with you on Hosmer as a prospect, and to this day I find myself willing it to still happen, but you’ve pretty clearly turned on that.
Keith Law: There’s no ‘right’ time to change an evaluation, but I do think we have to start rethinking probabilities of projections even into a player’s first season in the majors … that 40% chance of a player becoming a star might only be 20-25% a year later. And then…

Marc: Lucas Giolito had some success with a shortened arm motion in his first start. Can these type of adjustments work long term? Any injury concerns?
Keith Law: …you get Giolito working with a shorter but clean arm stroke that had him locating his fastball to the corners along with what might be the best changeup I’ve seen him throw. Prospects are still humans; they don’t develop on our schedule.

W&M: Be glad you didn’t go to college at William and Mary. Terrible record on mental health and punishing students who open up about mental health and anxiety issues. If I could do it over, I never would have gone.
Keith Law: Is that true? Any public record on this? They’re a state school, which makes this even more disappointing.

grant : Do you have any opinion on what education a college kid should get if their trying to go into baseball? Trying to decide if i should study something like stats or computer science
Keith Law: That combination sounds like a perfect one to me.

Kevin W: Has ESPN ever asked you to tone down your twitter feed (and I’m so glad you don’t)?
Keith Law: Sort of. I won’t.

Mac: Is Nick Lodolo going to pitch himself into the top 10 picks?
Keith Law: Possible but I would not take him there.

Patrick: How about my team’s start? Look like division winners! Absolutely I can project their finish from this excellent first half-week!
But seriously Keith, as April snows hit today, I ask–how much can/do you take weather into account when checking out collegiate players? Do you consciously avoid cold-weather scouting trips?
Keith Law: I do – I’d rather see a pitcher on a day with at least moderate weather. I did see Logan Gilbert last spring on a 42 degree day in Newark, which got me a fair look at him but was miserable for everyone involved, myself included.

Dr. Bob: If a team was bad at something last year and they still are through 5 games can any conclusions be drawn or are we still just in SSS-verse?
Keith Law: If the personnel hasn’t changed, then you can carry forward the conclusion you drew from last year.

Dalton: Time worry about the Braves youth on the mound?
Keith Law: It’s April 2nd.

Luke: Does Pete Alonso’s start mean anything to you or too much of a SSS to mean anything?
Keith Law: It’s April 2nd. Sam-ple size doo doo do do do do…

Nelson: Ive been trying to read Booker and Pulitzer winning fiction, but I find most are just not very fun reads. Its like Oscars for best picture, maybe great works of fiction, but not the most fan friendly. Any recent winners that your recommend in a page-turner type of way?
Keith Law: All the Light We Cannot See, The Sense of an Ending, The Underground Railroad, Lincoln in the Bardo, The Sellout, The Orphan Master’s Son.

Dr. Bob: The transactions made by Toronto the past couple of weeks raises the question: What is Toronto’s plan?
Keith Law: I’m not quite sure, to be honest.

Nick: I know its super super super early and I think he only has 1 walk, but it looks like Amed Rosario’s is really starting to turn a corner from a plate discipline perspective. In his game winning hit yesterday, he laid off 2 nasty breaking balls before ripping a 2-0 fast ball for a hit. No doubt last year he would have swung at least one of those sliders. If Amed reaches his potential and learns to get on base more, he adds some seriously needed athleticism to that roster and can make the Mets have a pretty darn scary lineup.
Keith Law: Although I generally agree with you, he needs to try to elevate the ball more – when I saw him in March, he was still coming down at the ball at the point of contact enough that I think he’s going to hit too many groundballs.

Jeff: How do you normally finish off a sous vide bath? Smoking hot grill? Sear on cast iron?
Keith Law: Cast iron/carbon steel.

Michael Conforto: I haven’t seen much downside for Mayor Pete. I don’t even love his “religious left” platform, but the justification is thoughtful and admirable. What have you seen?
Keith Law: I’d agree. I admit that I find his overall intelligence extremely appealing, and might be overreacting to the lack of intelligence of the current occupant. I would like to see Elizabeth Warren getting at least the same kind of adulation for her own, similar practice of putting policy proposals first.

Danny: You see the Mets Columbia roster? Szapucki, Woods-Richardson, Mauricio, Newton, Vientos!! (side note: what are they going to do playing-time wise? Newton get OF reps?)
Keith Law: I would guess Newton slides to 2b. Mauricio needs to play most of the time at SS. Continued positive reports on him from minor league ST.

Sarah: If Vlad Guerrero Jr is up in two weeks does he hit 30 HR? 300 BA?
Keith Law: I’d guess 20-25 HR, .300ish AVG, OBP in the mid-.300s.

Carl: Re: your linked-to deadspin piece on ballparks pricing out fans. Do you think this is detrimental to the long-term health of the sport, even if they are maximizing profits now?
Keith Law: I do. You can absolutely alienate too much of your fan base like that, and if those people stop watching or buying merch or paying for MLB.tv, the sport is in trouble.

Amy: Is anyone left to be a FA this fall? These extensions are fascinating, and probably too comforting for the owners. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I don’t think any extension so far has looked like a bad one for the owners. Some have looked fair, others too team-friendly.

Sage: Trying to teach myself guitar. Struggling with chord change speed. Any recs?
Keith Law: Repetitions, and make sure you’re using the optimal fingering to make those changes. Most chords can be played in 3+ ways, so you can set up the next chord change with how you finger the current one.

Patrick: Oh, sure, just as I’m about to ask a music question, I see you dropped March’s new playlist. See you later, going down that rabbit hole…
Do you ever catch live shows? Anxiety not make it comfortable? Or prefer time w/ the family and ‘consuming’ music at your own convenience?
Keith Law: Haven’t been to a show in a year-plus for a variety of reasons. Just met someone recently who shares a lot of my tastes in music and we’ve talked about hitting shows together once my draft travel slows down. She insists I’m going to learn to like Josh Ritter, though…

Debo: Thoughts on Joe Biden giving kisses?
Keith Law: I was done with him as a candidate before then. I guess I’m extra done now. And shame on Alyssa Milano for failing to back up Ms. Flores, instead talking about what a nice guy Biden is. Just because a man didn’t harass or assault YOU doesn’t mean he never did it to anyone else.

MikeM: Im hoping Mayor Pete will use this platform to get some visibility and turn it into a senate seat the next time one is up in Indiana. The Senate is really important and Democrats seem to overlook everything but the presidency.
Keith Law: Yes, and yes, although I too find it hard to think about anything but the presidency when the President is lying about everything on Twitter (no, we did not send Puerto Rico $91 billion in hurricane relief, we sent a paltry $1.5 billion, and he once again implied it’s not part of the US, which it is).

Kevin W: I used to believe this country would never elect somebody named Barack Obama (especially so soon after 9/11) so it gives me hope most people can get past a gay man.
Keith Law: Fun intellectual exercise: Would American voters sooner elect a gay white man or any woman? I think the former.

Ben: Good recs re the Man Booker/Pulitzer list, but is Sense of an Ending a page-turner, or just short? It’s so bleak!
Keith Law: His prose is gorgeous. I tore through it. The movie was solid too although it can’t pack the same punch as the revelation at the end of the book.

Jonathan: Anything to David Hess, other than a really good start last night?
Keith Law: No, I think he ends up a long man or 5th/6th starter.

Alan: How is Carter Stewart faring these days? Do you view him as a top-10 pick this year?
Keith Law: I saw him last month and wrote it up here: https://klaw.me/2Hk6dF1
Keith Law: BTW I’ll be at the NHSI tournament this week, along with Kiley from Fangraphs and some of the BA guys. Top prospects there include Riley Greene, CJ Abrams, Rece Hinds, Brennan Malone, Kendall Williams, and Jack Leiter.

MikeM: How worried should the Yankees be about Hicks’ back? Its been 2 weeks since his 2nd cortizone shot and he still hasnt started baseball activities.
Keith Law: I’m worried. And I have long been a huge Hicks fan.

Amy: Does the Andujar injury make the Yankees seriously regret not being in on Manny?
Keith Law: You could never have foreseen this injury, so in some sense it would be wrong to say that’s the reason they should regret not trying harder to sign Machado. The better reason is that Manny was an upgrade over Andujar in the first place, and they chose not to get better when they had the financial wherewithal to do so. The cost of doing nothing at third base just doubled.

Kretin: Do you use any programs such as Rocksmith for practicing guitar? Highly recommend if you haven’t checked it out.
Keith Law: Thank you. I just practice by playing/learning new songs (and then playing snippets on Instagram, thank you all for humoring me).

Jay: Speaking of mlb.tv, can we PLEASE do away with blackouts? I’m annoyed I can’t watch my local team without paying for cable
Keith Law: Shame on MLB if they don’t negotiate an end to blackouts for that product. Just air the games and send some of the payments to the local RSNs.

jimmyb40: Keith, no question here. Just want to say that I appreciate all of your writing, at Paste, ESPN, and here. I don’t interact much on chats, I don’t interact on Twitter, and I’ve never met you at a game, but I still appreciate everything you do. I hope the bad apples aren’t getting to you too much, and there are us quiet types that want to be respectful and move conversations forward.
Keith Law: Thank you. I appreciate the kind words.

Ted: Is it too soon to conclude that Oakland completely blew it by drafting Beck and Murray with top 10 picks in the past 2 drafts?
Keith Law: Too soon on Beck but he looks terrible. Murray, I just don’t know what they knew at the time, but I know our draft experts at ESPN didn’t think Murray was going to be a first rounder, much less a potential #1 overall pick. (me, not a football fan: “Oh, like Dan Wilkinson? Or Ki-Jana Carter?”)

Juwan: For posterity, mark me down as a Nats supporter that doesn’t blame Harper one bit for not accepting the Nationals’ two low ball offers, doesn’t begrudge the man one bit for signing the best contract he was offered irrespective of location and how it would impact his former club, and a guy that won’t boo him even once for anything pertaining to his free agency decision.
Keith Law: I would like to think most Nats fans feel this way, but that we just hear from the most vocal ones.

PD: Has anyone tried to determine the risk premium charge that players pay to get the long term security from an extension? Yes, players want to get paid for what they’re expected to produce but there’s value to the player in knowing you’ll get paid long term versus the uncertainty going year to year.
Keith Law: I haven’t seen any research on this (feel free to send me a link if any of you have seen one, even in an academic paper). I completely agree on your second point. If that’s my kid, I’d say negotiate for every last dollar, but plan to sign.

Wayne: How concerned are you about Soroka’s shoulder? And, do you think we see Ian Anderson this year?
Keith Law: Very concerned about Soroka’s shoulder since it’s his second bout of soreness and I’d raised concerns about his arm swing prior to any injuries. For most teams I’d say no on Anderson, but we saw Wright and Touki and Wilson last year before I expected, so maybe for Atlanta yes.

Dr. Bob: Manny Machado 222/263/222 28 OPS+. See? Guys get comfortable after they sign big contracts. (Or was it, He doesn’t play hard? I forget.)
Keith Law: I will not out the writer, but someone posted a troll tweet after Harper had a bad game in the opener, and how Atlanta got so much more out of Matt Joyce, who signed for nothing. Not only was it unfunny trolling, but it was spiteful towards Harper. The fact that he signed that enormous deal should not color our opinion of his value or production.

Nick: re: Marshall MN’s comment and naturopathy. My mom was diagnosed with cancer over the summer (thankfully she is in remission now) and a few people suggested certain naturopath treatments and I straight up told them it was bullshit and that the only way she’ll get any better is by listening to her doctors. It shut them up, at least around me.
Keith Law: Good for you. Fire all those mountebanks into the sun.

Rob: Any hope for Alford as a regular?
Keith Law: He has the physical tools to be a regular, but neither the performance nor the history of durability to suggest he will become one.

Jason: I’m not looking forward to the Democratic primary at all. I can’t imagine a time in history when uniting behind a strong candidate who can win the election matters more, but yet you can already see through early donation amounts and social media people uniting behind Sanders, Warren, and Mayor Pete. As much as we might like their core policies, they aren’t going to resonate with most of the country. Am I crazy to think that a Biden or Klobuchar, while flawed certainly, is the way to go here?
Keith Law: I know too little about Klobuchar to say, but I am out on Biden – the harassment issues didn’t even come into play, as I don’t think Biden’s policy history is promising, and to be quite honest, I’d like someone who won’t turn 80 during his term, you know?

Craig: Obviously Knebel’s upcoming TJ surgery puts a dent in the Brewers bullpen. Other than Kimbrel (who they are wisely unwilling to overpay for) is there anyone they should be targeting for additional bullpen help?
Keith Law: I think/hope they’ll give Zack Brown relief innings as they did Burnes and Woodruff last year.
Keith Law: Maybe look for their Ryan Pressly, too.
Keith Law: (A guy they think they can tweak to improve, someone we would look at now and say is fine, but not the high-leverage solution you seek.)

JR: Pretty cool that Alonso and Tatis, Jr got their first MLB HRs on the same day. Hope they both have solid seasons and make for an exciting NL ROY race.
Keith Law: I wish Tatis’s had been earlier – actually even Alonso’s was after 10 pm, I think, so I’m guessing a lot of fans didn’t see them. I was out by the time Tatis homered. MLB needs to get those clips out on social early and often to push those kids in front of fans.

Jonathan: How is that not age-ism against Biden? Bernie is nearly the same age no?
Keith Law: When did I ever say I wanted Bernie? Age-related cognitive decline typically begins in a person’s 70s. Being younger than that would be a BFOQ.

Gritty: As a Nat’s fan, I’m going to boo Bryce Harper because he’s a phillie, not because he chased the $$$
Keith Law: Well that’s fair.

Brian: Posed this question to my Dad the other day and he basically laughed in my face – Schoop at $6 million to man 2B until Hiura is ready or Moustakas at $10 million to do the same? I still feel like Schoop is the better choice.
Keith Law: Same. Think you’ll get a lot more on defense.

Jco, San Fran: How long does Farhan need to rebuild the big league club and secondly, the system?
Keith Law: I think this one is a 4-5 year rebuild. System is still very thin above short-season ball.

ck: How do teams find out about DFA or waived players. Is there a group email or website or something? Also, how do you reach a player? Does a team have an index with phone numbers of all players and their agents or what? Thanks for all your content. Sorry if this was a dumb question…
Keith Law: When I was with Toronto we’d get multiple PDFs every day (I think three?) with transactions, including all players on the three types of waivers we had at the time. I imagine it’s a bit more streamlined now?

Rick Sanchez: When does Mize crack the majors? Do you view him as a future ace?
Keith Law: June 2020 and yes.

Matt: With the way the Indians OF situation looks, how soon does Mercado make his debut? Is his defense good enough to handle CF everyday?
Keith Law: Early this year and yes.

Chris: It must be in the West Palm Beach water, but but by pure coincidence (I hadn’t read your restaurant dish post) we tried The Leftovers and had the same exact experience with absolutely no seasoning on the fish. We also tried Captain Charlie’s (we were told that the owner of Leftovers and Food Shack used to be the head cook there) and my daughter had the same problem with her fish (mine was blackened and not noticeable). Seriously, how has this not been addressed before?
Keith Law: A slew of people recommended the Leftovers too, and the quality of the fish and other ingredients wasn’t a problem. But bah god i need some salt!

Alex: If you were a baseball fan growing up, would you say working in the industry deepens your appreciation for the sport, or does the work become too “work-like”? Asking because I am interested in getting a job in baseball, but don’t want to lose my passion for the game in the process
Keith Law: Baseball is work. I love what I do, but I have a hard time going to a game to just watch the game, and can’t get caught up in outcomes any more.

Joe: Is Adley R. major league ready now?
Keith Law: Absolutely not.

Ryan: Can Zimmer be a lock down closer, if the Royals decide to use him that way?
Keith Law: Teams typically expect closer to be able to pitch on back to back days, but I don’t think Zimmer has ever done that.

Jonathan: What was the positive development, that almost made you decide to stop writing? (If you can tell us)
Keith Law: I was saying that I felt much less of the typical desire to write because of some good and bad things that have happened recently. I don’t plan to stop writing entirely – a longtime reader emailed to ask if I was taking a team job and I said no. I don’t think I’ll ever go back at this point.

Ira: I know this seems like an oversimplification but regarding abortion shouldn’t the legality of the practice depend on the viability of the fetus? Isn’t that a fair line to determine a woman’s choice to abort?
Keith Law: Who makes that determination? And fair according to whom? I’d leave it to the woman and her doctor, and would rather see public policy focus on providing food, education, and health care to the many, many children who don’t have enough of those.

Mike: Looks like the Mets are going to staple Dom smith to the bench this year. Any chance he’s a solution for the Red Sox in a year? They don’t have any obvious in house candidates for that job next year, and moving Devers seems like quite a waste.
Keith Law: Interesting thought. Not sure I could see the Red Sox going unproven there, but I like it. I think Smith ends up with a second division team and then breaks out.

Ryan: As of right now would you rather have Mookie or Acuna?
Keith Law: Mookie but they’re both stars.

Joe: No way Pache makes it to the MLB this season right? Even if there were a spot for him I still feel there’s a year or more worth of development to go for him. Maybe he hits so much he proves me wrong, but there are fans acting like he’s taking over for Markakis in a few months
Keith Law: Ideally, no. I think the approach has to improve first, and that may require time and some struggling in AA/AAA. His defense was ready a year ago.

Harrisburg Hal: Do you have a good list of short story writers for someone who has read non-fiction exclusively for 25 years, but willing to dip his toe into fiction?
Keith Law: The best short story writer ever, in my NSHO, is F. Scott Fitzgerald. The rest are vying for second place. I read and enjoyed George Saunders’ Tenth of December. The Collected Stories of John Cheever is long but contains some absolute classics, including “The Swimmer.”

Josh: Any way Dom Smith can play OF as a regular?
Keith Law: No. They’ve tried this.

BD: Crazy for Luis Garcia to start at AA Harrisburg?
Keith Law: Crazy, no, but not ideal.

Ben: After seeing the rosters, which minor league team are you most looking forward to see thus far?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen all the rosters. Are they even all out? It’s not like I’m going to any minor league games until the Dash come here Monday anyway.

Brandon: Since someone mentioned Mercado I am wondering if you have seen Jhon Torres and have any thoughts on his long-term outlook?
Keith Law: I had notes on him in my Cards wrapup but I have not seen him in person.

Newt: Ever see a high-speed career implosion like Denise McAllister’s world-record performance on Saturday night?
Keith Law: I rather enjoyed that, since she’s just another preacher of hate. Of course, Bethany Mandel has tweeted some vile transphobic stuff and still has her gig, so (shrug).

Mike: Do you consider 70 games a small sample size? Because Jeff McNeil won’t stop raking and he’s added some pop this year as well. I think the guy’s for real
Keith Law: Yes, 70 games is a small sample size. I’m glad you think he’s for real.

40-man players: We ARE union members…
Keith Law: Yeah, I thought so, but I was second-guessing myself. So 1200+ members.

Frank: Bummed on Andujar. Likeable, hard working and seemingly bright future. From your experience, how bad is a labrum tear (throwing arm) for a third baseman?
Keith Law: I really can’t say. And I would imagine it depends on how bad the tear is, and thus how significant the surgery is. Plus he loses a year of reps in the field and at bats. But as for the surgery, I just don’t know enough to say.

Chris: My 11-year-old son plays little league, and I’ve been managing his teams for the past 4 seasons. He’s not great. But he’s not terrible. He just loves the game. On the other end of the spectrum, we have 3 players on our team that play for the local travel team. Since 3rd grade, they’ve been “conditioning” beginning in January through August, and work with former minor-league players at developing skill sets. 2 of these players are already at the point where they’re tired and just don’t want to continue. And that’s a shame. I feel like we’re doing kids a disservice by forcing them into this where they want to quit. Where’s the line? [ends Jack Morris rant]
Keith Law: That’s insane. It seems like the parents are just pushing the kids rather than letting the kids decide any of their own fates (like, do they want to play another sport too?)

Steve O: If Andujar does require season ending surgery, does that change his long term outlook? Other than losing a year of development, of course.
Keith Law: Probably not but I might reduce the probability of him becoming an average defender at any point.

Joe: Is there enough subjectivity in judging certain prospect tools to create a difference among scouts? For example, it is possible that a scout could be outstanding at judging a hit tool but not as good as another scout at judging the glove?
Keith Law: This is absolutely possible. The question is whether we could tell this about a given scout in time to make use of this knowledge.

Buck: Not trying to be snarky, honest, but can’t you just use the salt shaker on the table to get your fish flavored right?
Keith Law: No. There’s a big difference between salting food before/during cooking and doing to after. Salt draws moisture to the surface, and then some of that same moisture will be reabsorbed into the meat/fish, taking salt with it. If you salt at the table, you get salt on the surface but that’s it.

Mike: Surprised Jordan Balazovic is opening back in High-A?
Keith Law: He only pitched in low-A last year. High-A is what I expected.

Matt: I cancelled my MLB.tv account. I’m a Yankees fan. I’m supposed to shell out $150 for a “season package” when 1/3 of their games are blacked out? No thanks.
Keith Law: I can’t blame you.

Mayor Pete: Warren will be in her 70’s by the next election. Do you think she should also be disqualified?
Keith Law: Nine years younger than Biden. And I never said “disqualified.” Is this what’s next? Bad enough I get strawman-toting baseball trolls.

Riley: Edwin Diaz or Josh Hader best RP in baseball?
Keith Law: Why are those my only choices? Blake Treinen is offended.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I think I’ll be back to Thursday next week, given potential travel & some actual home games here at Frawley Stadium. Thank you all as always for all of your questions and for all of your kind words this week. Hir yw pob ymaros.

My annual list of potential breakout players is now up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: I need for you to be reasonable. Klawchat.

barbeach: KLaw thanks as always for the chat. What are your thoughts on Gio Gonzalez…does he have anything left?
Keith Law: More than that. I think he can be a league-average starter for someone. I find it very hard to believe his claim that he didn’t receive *any* offers before yesterday. Maybe he didn’t get any offers he thought were fair – I can believe that, in this market – but he would make at least 20 rotations better.

Bay of Puigs: hey Keith, can you please suggest a few NL starting pitchers who you expect will take a big step forward this year?
Keith Law: My breakouts column went up this morning: https://klaw.me/2Ctw1us Anyone I feel like that about is in the column.

Kid Koala: Is this the year Tyler Glasnow puts it all together?
Keith Law: I would bet no.

Richard: So it looks like Alex Reyes starts his season in the Cardinals’ pen. Think he can still develop into a Top 50 starter this year, or is health too great an obstacle?
Keith Law: I see two obstacles: The fact that he has barely pitched the last few years, which would make it unlikely he can jump to 100-120 innings without incident, and a delivery that seems to result in him getting hurt.

Ridley: With Miley and McHugh in the rotation, Peacock likely joining them and Whitley around in midseason, do you think Josh James can still be an impact starter in Houston this year? (Or ever)?
Keith Law: Yes, this year and going forward. I’d much rather start James than Peacock.

Moe Mentum: Besides baseball, what was the last professional sporting event you attended? How about attended *and enjoyed* if that’s a different answer?
Keith Law: I don’t remember. I went to a hockey game in Toronto in 2003 or so. That might be it. Even if I’m not working, being at a professional sporting event feels like I’m at work.

Scotty Jetpack: Hi Keith – do you see Kingery as anything more than a super-utility player moving forward? Based on his power/speed combo and success in the minors, I was expecting more, and most likely so were the Phillies’ brass when they handed him 6/$24M (with $65 total possible) before he even made his MLB debut. He was one of the worst position players in the MLB last year statistically, but due to his versatility, he’s currently the backup SS, 2B, and 3B and can also play OF in a pinch, which is valuable. But as long as we have Cesar Hernandez at 2B, I don’t see where he fits everyday. Thoughts?
Keith Law: He doesn’t fit everyday on the current Phillies but I think he’s going to end up a regular. He’s a ++ defender at second.

Ken: Chris Russo took a lame shot at you the other day on the radio saying what in the world did you know about sports in reference to a caller who called saying that the Angels were improving with the 7th ranked farm system. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I think you wasted your time listening to him. Go watch paint dry instead.

Alex: Best book for dealing with anxiety you’ve ever read?
Keith Law: Fully Present.

Perd Hapley: K-Law I have a question for you and my question is this. When does the international signing period begun and end…for those who callers who don’t know an international signing period is what?
Keith Law: Starts July 2nd, although the main prospects have agreements in place long before that, as much as two years before.

Craig Kimbrel: At this point, am I likely to get a bigger contract if I wait to sign until after the draft in June?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. The draft pick was never the issue; it’s the demand for a six-year deal plus the poor performance in October.

Ivan: Given the 2019 rotation uncertainty, should Atlanta sign Dallas Keuchel to a 1 year deal?
Keith Law: It wouldn’t hurt them but they have so much internal pitching depth I think they benefit less from adding Keuchel than most contenders would.

Alan: Hunter Bishop. Give us the deets! The helium legit? Is he a CF long-term? Should we expect a jump in your rankings?
Keith Law: Not a CF. Clearly a first-rounder right now.

Ben: What are you thoughts on what the Tiger’s should look to do at pick 5? Thanks
Keith Law: Best player available. That’s probably a college position player – I don’t think there’s a college starter in the top ten, and there might be just one HS pitcher up there.

Jarry: Thoughts on Ichiro’s two game farewell? I know they won so it didn’t hurt them, but offensively he’s at a Tebow level right now. Seems crazy that they did this.
Keith Law: Crazy how? Hall of Famer on both sides of the ocean gets to play his final games in his home country, with the MLB team where he spent most of his career, in two games that really don’t mean anything to Seattle since they’re not contending.

Zac: Eloy Jimenez extension good or bad? Will this be the new norm for teams to get 8 years of control?
Keith Law: Good for him, good for the team (with some risk), perhaps not great for players as a whole, but how could you tell any player to turn down that money when he has yet to earn a single big-league paycheck?

Dr. Bob: What do you think of Fangraphs incorporation of pitch framing into catcher’s WAR? Yadier Molina now moves up to 13th all time. He is in the negative on offense, but has the highest defensive numbers in history. Does this change the debate?
Keith Law: It doesn’t change the debate, although it was funny how many BFIBs seemed to think it did. This isn’t new data; it is a combination of data we already had. I said on Twitter, though, that I think Fangraphs made a colossal mistake in doing this. You can no longer use their WAR to compare catchers from this era to those in previous eras – was Johnny Bench a great framer, with his gigantic hands? Fisk? Carter? Maybe one of them was terrible, too, and we have no idea.

Zac: Are Michael Fulmers best years behind him?
Keith Law: I hope not.

Sean: Is durability in position players a real thing? Seems like injuries are randomly distributed and you can’t predict future games played based on prior injury history, but not sure which side the data supports, do you have any insights?
Keith Law: Yes. Staying healthy is a skill for position players. For pitchers, though, I don’t think we know much at all; by the time we can say a pitcher is durable his durability may be past tense.

Devin’s Cow: Hi Keith, please moooove this question to the top of your queue: what are your thoughts on these early regular season games in Japan? The week delay between these games and the rest of the opening days seems odd and sort of jarring. These feel more like international exhibition games, especially with the crazy early start times in the US.
Keith Law: Great for the sport, hard on the players.

Tom: So even though service time manipulation is no longer an issue with Eloy Jimenez signing a long-term deal, the Sox will still keep him down in AAA for some period of time, right? I mean, if they call him up right away isn’t that the same as admitting that they sent him down for non-baseball reasons in the first place?
Keith Law: What’s the consequence? If they call him up right away, so what? He’s not filing a grievance after signing this deal (and maybe agreed not to do so).

Sean: I keep reading that Nick Pivetta is going to break out this year. I am still very skeptical. What are your thoughts?
Keith Law: I do not believe so. I think he’s miscast as a traditional starter and see no reason to rethink that.

Jon V: The recent extensions make a lindor long term deal in Cleveland even more unlikely. Would you ride out his contracted window or look to move him at some point after this season?
Keith Law: I’d move him after this season, because I think you can get the sun and the moon for him.

J Dawg: How good can Braves Kyle Wright be this year?
Keith Law: Maybe league-average this year. Would probably guess a little below for now, although I think he has more potential in the long term.

Jon V: Does Bauer’s personality impact his trade value? Does his stated desire to go year by year after his arb years impact his trade value?
Keith Law: I am sure some teams would shy away from him, fearing that he’ll create some unwanted controversy or, worse, do something to get himself suspended, but his talent is also such that (I’m guessing) the majority of teams would just take him. There are teams that have no problem taking domestic abusers as long as they have a modicum of talent remaining. The Pirates welcomed Kang back after multiple DUIs, including a hit-and-run, and a sexual assault allegation.

Drew: How would you handle Chris Paddack this season for the Padres?
Keith Law: Just start the guy.

Jeff: Going up to Corvallis to watch Rutschman and Vaughn this weekend? That’s a nice matchup.
Keith Law: That’s the plan although the weather doesn’t look great.

Joseph: So were you completely against the Ichiro 2019 saga like you are against a hypothetical Tebow callup or are you a hypocrite?
Keith Law: How stupid must you be to compare a Hall of Famer like Ichiro to a guy who hasn’t even hit in the minors? I’m surprised you didn’t somehow mix up your and you’re in there.

Tony: Apologies if you’ve been asked this one before but do you think it’s possible that Oakland knew Addison Russell was a budding dirt bag? If I recall he was rocketing into the top 5 overall when traded. Would a team keep this type of info private?
Keith Law: I never heard a word of this until Russell’s ex first posted about it on IG.

Chris: Just curious, do you regularly get out of the blue replies to 2 year old tweets like Soundsing Mad Yadi Fan yesterday?
Keith Law: No. Some BFIB account retweeted that, and then a handful of people too slow to look at a timestamp started yelling at me.

Ben: Think Daniel Lynch starts in HighA? Or could be pushed to AA?
Keith Law: My guess is high A but not for very long.

CH: Wheeler will be Mets best SP this year. Tell me I’m wrong!
Keith Law: You’re wrong.

Todd: Silly question, all things equal, did the Yankees make the right choice in choosing from the Cubs Gleyer instead of Eloy?
Keith Law: Yes, not that there’s a huge gap.

MJ: Do you think Bryse Wilson pitches a significant amount of innings (say >100) at the major league level this year? Can he be at least league average?
Keith Law: I’m a huge fan but I think he’s probably behind too many other guys in their starter queue at the moment to predict that many starts (that’s probably 15+ starts in the majors).

Erik: I love Jake Bauers’ approach (ie all the walks) last year but his average cratered, especially in the second half. What are your thoughts on him and can he be at least a league average player given his defensive shortcomings?
Keith Law: I think that’s the most he can be, with the lack of power and negative defensive value.

Tribe Called Jest: Higher ceiling youngster, Lenny Torres or Ethan Hankins?
Keith Law: If Hankins’ stuff ever returns, it’s him.

Gritty: Ichiro earned a sendoff. What has Tebow done to deserve the attention he’s gotten thus far?
Keith Law: Threw a football, and not well.

Aubrey: Do you still believe in the Johan Santana development model of using a young starter in the bullpen first, then to the rotation? What makes a young guy like Forrest Whitley a good or bad candidate for that role?
Keith Law: I believe in it wholeheartedly. If I ran a team I’d try to break every starter in that way – in long relief, though, not as a one-inning reliever. It’s a planned development path, not a “stick him in the bullpen, let the manager use him however” deal.

Kevin : Is there a point where you are to tall to be an effective major leaguer?
Keith Law: A fair question. We’ve never had a 7′ big leaguer. Is that because it doesn’t work, or because they’re selected into basketball? There are certainly diminishing returns to height beyond at 6’6″.

Rick Sanchez : I wanted to just give Pete Buttigieg a quick pop. I feel like the only reason he’s behind candidates like Beto and Kamala in the polls is because he doesn’t grab media attention as well as they do, especially through social media. It kills me how much influence social media has these days! I encourage everyone to check out an interview of this guy- he’s super sharp and laser focused, with a great resume to back it all up. I’d recommend checking out his interviews from the Washington Post or Pod Save America. He also came on Chris Wallace’s show, which I wish more Dems would do!
Keith Law: Two thoughts. One, yeah, he’s been very, very impressive so far. He appears to be one of the most intelligent candidates, declared or rumored. And two, it doesn’t take much for a candidate like him to surge in the runup to the primaries – I’ve mentioned before how Clinton was seen as a longshot in 1991 and won the election, and pre-scandal Gary Hart went from extreme longshot to the close runner-up in 1984.

Danny: Is Spencer Jones the type of pitcher the Yankees typically target? (he seems like the only Oppenheimer special-SoCal pitcher- in the top 2 rounds)
Keith Law: No, and he hasn’t been very good in the early going.

Kevin : I know it’s never going to happen but would you be in favor of a relegation system for mlb?
Keith Law: No.

AGirlHasNoName: What’s the best use of twitter as a newbie? I mostly have been using it as a news filter, is that it? Otherwise reading the replies seems to lower my opinion of humanity.
Keith Law: That’s probably the best use. And/or follow people who tweet interesting links.

Discount Steve Urkel: Have you seen Luis Robert this spring?
Keith Law: Nope. Tried Monday, he wasn’t playing. Have had other priorities since. I can only chase a shadow for so long/

Kevin : What do you drink when you are on the road (besides coffee)?
Keith Law: Tea or water. That’s it.

Esteban: what’s the difference between an above average and a plus pitch? Let’s use a curve for instance, is it simply inches of break? Or is it a multitude of things like velo, control etc.? Can a slow breaking ball be as effective as a hard breaking ball?
Keith Law: Do hitters swing and miss at it? How often? That’s really all that matters in the end.

Mark: Do you think we will see more young players sign extensions as a reaction to the uncertainty in the CBA (ie they would be afraid that the union would continue to bargain in favor of veteran players at the expense of young players)?
Keith Law: These deals aren’t new. I don’t think this is a substantial change in philosophy for teams or players.

Sean: How many major league innings will Daniel Lynch pitch this year?
Keith Law: Zero.

Sean: Who breaks settles into a rotation spot first – Adonis Medina or Spencer Howard?
Keith Law: Breaks or settles? Howard is the clear starter prospect. Medina is probably more likely a reliever than a starter.

Joe: Do some associate scouts get paid? I read a news article recently that said that an associate scout had to sign a contract with a team. How many associate scouts do most teams have?
Keith Law: That role barely exists today.

Dan: What are your thoughts on Jeter Downs? Does he have star upside? He had a very impressive debut last year but I haven’t seen a ton about him.
Keith Law: Above-average upside, not star.

Kevin : Any chance the screwball will come back in vogue, or is it to hard on your arm?
Keith Law: There’s a very strong belief throughout baseball that it leads to arm problems. I find that somewhat amusing because so does every other fucking pitch guys throw.

JP: no question, just a kudos to the Blue Jays for being first at Making America’s Pastime Resemble A Living Wage.
Keith Law: Absolutely – they’re not getting quite enough credit, IMO, because it’s easy to say that they didn’t do enough. They did more than any other team has done, by a lot, so why not praise them for it and hope it provides other teams with an incentive to follow suit or further raise the ceiling for minor leaguers?

Greg S: Would Navy RHP Noah Song be a day 1 pick were teams not contending with a 2 year military commitment? Is he the best service academy prospect to pop up?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, and I don’t know the answer to the second question. Probably better for Jim Callis, who’s done this longer.

Rico Brogna : Any reason to think if Pivetta adds more consistency that he can eventually be the #2 starter behind Nola?
Keith Law: No. His issue isn’t consistency.

Shane: Thoughts on the Woodstock 50 line-up?
Keith Law: I could not care less about that.

Jeff: The Mets seem serious about breaking camp with both Smith and Alonso. That’s dumb, right?
Keith Law: I just don’t know how you play either of them enough to figure out what to do with them both. If they had the DH spot for Alonso, sure, but for now they don’t.

Rick C: Again here you brought up the flaw of adding catcher framing to WAR. I would be curious how you reconcile this with the incorporation of other advanced defensive metrics into WAR that have only existed since the early 2000’s.
Keith Law: Because we have reasonable proxies for defensive value for previous eras. That’s a bad analogy.

J: 80’s Aerosmith vs
80’s Motley Crue
Keith Law: Blech. Crue started to go downhill after Too Fast for Love. I don’t think Aerosmith did anything good after the ’70s, though.

Slippery Pete: The Luzardo news makes me sad. Should I cling to the silver lining that it makes it easier for Oakland to navigate his innings limit this year?
Keith Law: Depends on whether his rotator cuff is just sore or actually screwed up.

Mike: The Giants have kept Bart in major league camp a long time. Is there anything to read into that or does it mean anything?
Keith Law: No, teams need extra catchers anyway.

MattB: Whenever I read your work, I always wish there were more people out there like you. People who were broadly curious and interested in the world. Thanks for everything!
Keith Law: Well that’s a very kind comment, thank you. I have always been a curious person, even as a kid. I feel kind of lucky that it never faded.

CH: How would you handle Mets catching situation? Think I’d go Ramos and Mesoraco
Keith Law: Seems like a good plan to me.

Jake L.: If you were given 400+ MIL, what would your 1st purchase be? Would you like to be seen as “rich and irrelevant”?
Keith Law: Rich and irrelevant seems like a wonderful fate to me. Granted, Mr. Trout has to work for that money, but I’d be plotting my retirement in Italy.

Graig: Is Ryan O’Hearn anything? Good numbers last year, seems to have the starting job, but I assume (being a regular reader of yours) I would’ve heard more about him by now
Keith Law: I think he can repeat what he did last year, or something close. Makes hard contact. Poor defender.

Drew: I’ve been struggling with anxiety recently, and reading your Stigma Fighters piece helped me regain equilibrium after trying to go off my SSRIs. I wanted to thank you for your openness in discussing your own mental health, and to ask whether you’ve ever tried the Headspace app for meditation.
Keith Law: Only briefly although my therapist has recommended it. I don’t meditate nearly often enough.

Brodie Van Jump on the Bandwagon: Keith– are you surprised how well Pete Alonso has hit (i.e., more than just HRs) this spring? Also very impressed how Dom Smith has done (don’t know if you saw the piece that he is using a CPAP machine for better sleep, so that is having a + impact.) The Mets say they may carry both. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I am not surprised by how well/poorly any player has done in spring training because it means nothing.

Kevin : Do you think the anti-vax people that attack you on Twitter are actual real people or from a troll factory?
Keith Law: Both. Some are bots. Some are parents whose children are neuroatypical (e.g., autistic) and have been unable to accept that their children are different, thus sending them to find someone to blame. They’re all dangerous to the rest of us, though.

alex: Os are having Mountcastle work at 1B as well as 3B this spring. Given his (lack of arm), would you have tried LF (I heard he has been or 2B) for him? Thanks
Keith Law: He is way too big for 2b. LF should work.

Kevin : Was there any other colleges besides Harvard you were considering?
Keith Law: I applied to 12, which is more to say my parents decided I would apply to 12 (bear in mind I was 16 at the time, hardly capable of deciding what to wear to school on any given day). Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Virginia, William and Mary, Georgetown, Colgate, Washington University, Cornell, Duke, Wesleyan, Johns Hopkins.
Keith Law: I ended up choosing between Harvard and William & Mary, which offered me some kind of scholarship and also seemed to offer a much better student experience. I would almost certainly have enjoyed W&M more, but I’m well aware what the Harvard name has done for me (and the privilege it affords me).

Jake L.: Is the Snell 15K pay raise really a “bad look,” considering he was sent down twice to AAA in 2017 because he was insanely inconsistent and inefficient and then it finally all clicked on for him in 2018?
Keith Law: No, it’s the damn system.

Danny: What charities do you give to?
Keith Law: My #1 charity has been the Food Bank of Delaware for the past several years. It’s direct help to people who need it. I just gave $500 to them last week out of my first advance payment for book number two, because they’re great and they’ve been building a new warehouse/facility. fbd.org.

Hunter Greene: Huge year for me this year. What level should I be pitching in by the end of the year?
Keith Law: Double-A would be great, but healthy is the most important thing.

Dan: What are your expectations on Joe Ross as he makes his full-season return from injury? On a similar note, any concern for Lance McCullers and his ability to keep that curve ball next year?
Keith Law: Considered Ross for the breakouts piece but couldn’t find a real reason for optimism beyond “I’ve always liked that guy.” And his stuff wasn’t as good last year when he did pitch. Concern on McCullers was/is ability to stay healthy with that arm action.

Mark: Have you ever eaten at any of Thomas Keller’s restaurants?
Keith Law: Only Bouchon Bakery which was great.

Jim: I can probably predict it, but any thoughts about the KY governor (guess which party) who took his (nine) kids to a “pox party”?
Keith Law: If you tolerate this, then your children will be next.

Todd: Still relatively high on Domingo Avevedo? It should be time for him to make it to the majors
Keith Law: Have I ever been high on him?

Frank: As a former resident of Arizona do you have anything to add to the general commentary that being president and attacking a deceased war veteran who served his country his entire life is about as classless and petty as someone can be?
Keith Law: Yes. Let him rant and attack. I had this thought the other day: If Warren ends up the Democratic candidate, and Trump spends months calling her “Pocahantas” and other slurs and just generally being awful, will it end up helping Warren by reminding anyone actually on the fence of the kind of person the President is?

Guest: Kirilloff seemed like a great pick in 17 when the Twins were able to get him with a mid round pick. Was the reason he was available that far into the round because he doesn’t play a premium position?
Keith Law: Yes, also a cold-weather kid, and not a premium tools/athlete. Always trepidation over bat-first HS position players.

Kyle KS: If you’re the Cardinals and your 4th starter is Wainwright and the battle for 5th starter is Gant, Gomber, Hudson, etc. you sign Keuchel right? Seems like if you’re going for it then you improve that back end rotation right?
Keith Law: (nods)

alex: Are you expecting any former top prospects to be DFA-ed as we get to opening day (because they are out of options)? If so, who is a great change of scenery candidate? thanks
Keith Law: Isn’t Swihart out of options? Not a DFA candidate but maybe a trade guy.

JP: why not start with a 2 batter minimum, instead of going straight to 3?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to this.

dave m: Seeing as Fully Present is your go to book for anxiety I assume you practice mindfulness. Did you have trouble at first applying the practice to your daily life? I’m struggling to figure it out. Thanks
Keith Law: I would say it took me a few years to get to the point where I could apply it in difficult situations – learning to stay present and not let the anxiety of a moment overwhelm me.

Johny: So Harvard was your safety school?
Keith Law: No that’s Yale.

Jake L.: In a conversation about Brandon Lowe, you said that stats like wRC+ really should not be used to evaluate prospects, what stats should be considered?
Keith Law: The problem with wRC+ is it rewards production in terms of present value, which is not quite what we want from prospects – we are considering future value, more than present. The first time I had a reader try to use a minor leaguer’s wRC+ to argue with me was for Chase Vallot, who posted a 138 wRC+ in just over a year in high-A … but with a 36% strikeout rate. I had seen Vallot a ton for Wilmington and knew he couldn’t hit decent pitching – but he beat up on bad pitching, of which there is enough in A-ball for a player to fatten up his stat line.

Jason: Jake Noll has had a fantastic Spring (.341/.426/.585) for the Nats. What are your views of him as a prospect?
Keith Law: Exactly what they were a month ago – not a prospect.

Brodie Van Jump on the Bandwagon: On your point about Trump and Warren, Trump is going to attack and belittle any candidate on the other side. He has literally jumped the shark and is a super-loose cannon. Whoever opposes him has to tactically use that to their advantage– bait him on occasion to show he’s off his rocker and then also show you can be compassionate, the adult in the room, and know your stuff (which he doesn’t.)
Keith Law: I agree, but I’m not sure every Dem candidate would know to do that, or be able to pull it off.

Kevin : Is it wrong for employers to have facial hair rules (like the Yankees)?
Keith Law: IMO, yes.

Austin: In a previous chat, you were skeptical of Garrett Hampson’s ability to hit in the majors because of his lack of power. Has anything you’ve seen in the Spring changed that at all?
Keith Law: No, because … wait for it … spring training stats are useless.

Jonathan: Mike Shawaryn a back of the rotation guy?
Keith Law: I think more likely a reliever but he has succeeded as a starter, with starter-level skills, so far.

Austin: Any thoughts on McMahon in Colorado?
Keith Law: I still like him but for whatever reason they don’t seem to want to commit to play him?

JP: ___% chance of a work stoppage after 2020
Keith Law: 31%.
Keith Law: I just made that number up but it’s not zero and it’s below 50%.

Austin: Any favorite among Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta?
Keith Law: Well one was in my breakouts column…

Kevin : In favor of shortening the season?
Keith Law: Strongly oppose.

Rick Sanchez : Lunatic goes on murderous rampage. Leadership bans assault rifles. Wait- we can do that??!
Keith Law: Amazing what can happen in a liberal democracy that isn’t overrun by corporate and PAC money.

scott: Do you think the NCAA will ever increase the number of baseball scholarships> and if so do you think we will see more of the top high school players choose college rather than the minors? Would that be good for baseball in general?
Keith Law: I’ve suggested this before, but MLB should fund more D1 scholarships, and in exchange demand better access for scouts at workouts, BP, and to players for predraft info gathering (interviews, psych tests, etc.), as well as mandatory pitch limits.

You Work is Appreciated: Just noticed recently no mention of Hjelle in your write up of SF system, though you had wrote about him predraft in decently positive terms. Just wanted to see if anything in particular kept him off your list for the giants.
Keith Law: He’s there. I just checked again after a brief moment of panic.

Dane: How do people who know/respect your insights enough that they follow you and/or come to your chats continue to ask you about how your opinion of a particular player has changed based on spring training stats? You give the same answer to that question EVERY SINGLE TIME you choose to answer it. Every single time.
Keith Law: Every year, too. It’s wishful thinking, really. I understand wanting your favorite team’s player to be better, but a couple of extra hard-hit balls in March don’t tell us anything.

CD: I know he is extremely young, but is Franco in the same class as a prospect as Acuna was?
Keith Law: Yes.

The Fonz: Has a player, manager, or GM ever admitted to you that he follows your chats?
Keith Law: All the time. Often because they like a joke or catch the song reference in the intro.

Ray: Why is everyone acting like someone getting Trump to act like a jerk will move the needle? He’s always been a jerk and his supporters love it. The only thing that will change 2020 is getting those who didn’t come out at all in 2016 to get out and vote.
Keith Law: Isn’t that a possible motivator, though?
Keith Law: I’d add to that getting people who voted third party in 2016 to vote blue. Every person who voted for Jill Crank’n Stein should be deeply ashamed.

JT: If I’m vaccinated and my children are vaccinated, are we safe from the spread of these diseases regardless of the essential oil crowd, or should I be more worried?
Keith Law: You should still be worried because the immune system, while a marvel of evolution, is still imperfect, and that you can still catch a vaccine preventable disease even if you’ve been vaccinated. Your odds of fighting it off are much, much higher, of course, but they are not zero, so pushing herd immunity – stopping the disease from spreading because enough people in a community have been vaccinated – is still extremely important.

Kevin : Is it a weird feeling being recognized in public?
Keith Law: It is, but readers who’ve recognized me have always been so nice that I have come to enjoy it. It’s also infrequent – it’s not like I’ve got people lined up outside this Cartel Coffee shop to take my picture or something. I’ve been recognized in some fun places, like in line at Disneyworld (twice!), by my server in a restaurant, by the manager in a different restaurant, on a rental car shuttle, etc.

Michael Conforto: Have you watched The Inventor? It must be my bubble but this story managed to fly right past me all these years.
Keith Law: Not yet, on my to watch list. I’m overwhelmed again – my daughter wants me to watch Doctor Who and I’ve watched all of one episode of the reboot (Christopher Ecceleston’s debut), plus a friend more or less ordered me to watch Catastrophe, and I want to watch The Inventor and another film on HBO this month, La Familia.

Brett: Will you get any reports on Southern Miss, any chance wallner will sneak into the teens?
Keith Law: Of the first round? I haven’t heard anything like that.

Hinkie: I know you liked Brandon McIlwaine as a HS player. Any chance he can get back to a top prospect now that he’s playing regularly at Cal. Is he a day two pick this June?
Keith Law: I’d buy day two. He’s hit OK so far but I don’t think cal has faced much good pitching.

Danny: Does it matter if you vote Jill Stein or third party in a safely blue state (NY or CA)?
Keith Law: She’s a raging anti-science crank. Anti-vax, anti-GMO, anti-glyphosate, etc. Hard no.

Tom C: It’s interesting remembering the various opinions that the Angels should trade Trout to build up the farm system, only now they have Trout forever and a budding farm system. Hooray for everything.
Keith Law: Yes, but they don’t have much pitching imminent. They will have to solve that problem next.

Brian: Ugh Corey Knebel heading to an elbow specialist with the Brewers very concerned. Do you think how the Brewers used their bullpen last year will have negative ramifications for this year? Jeffress is on the IL as well.
Keith Law: I’m not sure we know how to prevent relievers from getting hurt.

Kevin : Would you do away with the electoral college?
Keith Law: Of course.

Michael : What do you think of the Brewers adding all three of their young pitchers to the rotation? Good move, highly volatile?
Keith Law: I’m here for it. Teams can be a bit too risk-averse with prospects/rookies yet the Brewers have gone hard the other way, and I think it’s great.

Drew: I’m finally watching Brooklyn 99 and it is incredibly funny. Has Michael Schur become the GOAT in television productoin? his run of 4 shows is unbeatable IMO.
Keith Law: If only he understood the glory of hot fruit, he’d be the GOAT. Instead he’s just rich and irrelevant.
Keith Law: OK, I’ve got to get a few little things done before heading out to games this afternoon, so I’ll wrap this up here. Thank you all, as always, for reading and for all of your questions. I should be on schedule for a Thursday chat next week, after I’m home from AZ. Enjoy this last weekend of meaningless baseball!