Texas eats, 2019 edition.

Both places I hit in Houston were on Eater’s list of the 38 ‘most essential’ restaurants in the U.S. this year, which tends to be a pretty reliable list for good if occasionally overpriced restaurants. Xochi, a high-end Mexican place downtown, did not disappoint at all: I had just two dishes but it will stick with me for a very, very long time. For dinner I had the crispy duck (pato crujiente) with tomatillo avocado sauce, black beans, and chicharrones. It’s the second-best duck dish I’ve ever eaten, behind only the duck carnitas at NYC’s Cosme, and my only quibble is that there was so much duck and not quite enough of the sauces to go with it. It comes with fresh corn tortillas, and the duck really doesn’t need any additional flavor – it would be fine with just a little lime juice – but the slow cooking process did just start to rob the meat of a little moisture. But the star here was the dessert; Xochi’s dessert menu has a dessert side and a chocolate side, and you’re a damn fool if you think I even looked at the side without chocolate on it. I got the Piedras y Oro, rocks and gold, described as “chocolate tart with crocant of mixed nuts, praline and chocolate “river rocks,” gold from the Isthmus,” which doesn’t quite do it justice. The chocolate tart’s center was warm and has very little flour in it, just enough to hold it together, with a hard, dense cookie-like crust, topped with those frozen pebbles of chocolate, as well as the praline, various candied nuts, and a dark chocolate sauce. It was chocolate indulgence right into your veins. I’m not sure I have ever had a more satisfying sense of oneness with chocolate.

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OH. MY. GOD. @xochihou

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Himalaya, which serves Indian and Pakistani dishes and has a few flourishes that combine those cuisines with Mexican twists (like a ‘quesadilla’ on paratha bread) also made the list, and I would say I had a mixed experience, partly because I ended up ordering the wrong thing, partly because I don’t know south Asian cuisine all that well. I liked much of what I ate, but it was enough food for more than two of me, and some of what arrived on the lunch special, which the waiter seemed very eager for me to order (probably assuming the white guy wouldn’t know most of the items on the menu, which would not be too far off the mark for me), included meats I no longer eat. The platter came with samples of three curries/similar dishes, one with chickpeas (I think aloo chana masala, with potatoes), one with chicken, and one with lamb, which I don’t eat; as well as a large naan that was leaner than any naad I’ve had before, more than a serving of rice, and a triangle of the same flatbread folded over meat and vegetables. I think it was good, but I also know what I don’t know – I rarely eat Indian or Pakistani food – and probably should have ordered something a la carte.

I tried Siphon Coffee before I headed to lunch, and the preparation of the namesake coffee is quite a show – there’s fire, and it looks like a chemistry experiment – with the resulting cup certainly balanced and smooth without losing any of the nuances of the bean. I just can’t see spending $9 for a cup of coffee other than to do it once to try it.

Moving on to Austin: Better Half Coffee & Cocktails is an all-day café in a cool space that serves coffee from Portland’s heart roasters and has traditional and unusual breakfast items, including the thing I could not possibly pass up, waffled hash browns with coffee-cream gravy and poached eggs. It was decadent, although despite being on the heavy side, it wasn’t greasy, more heavy just because all of those items are calorie-dense, and those hashbrowns were spectacularly crunchy. They were using a single-origin heart coffee even for espressos, which I especially appreciate because it shows someone took some care in selecting the coffee (some single origins are great for pour-overs and awful as espressos).

The Backspace was on that old Food and Wine list of the best pizzerias in the U.S. that I’ve been working my way through over the last five years (I’ve been to 31 of the original 48 places, although at least three have closed), and because I hit it on the early side I was there for their happy hour pricing, where their starters are half off. The roasted beets were great, the roasted cauliflower was bland. The margherita pizza used very high-quality mozzarella, although the dough was ordinary, and overall I’d say it’s on the high side of average (grade 50).

Micklethwait Craft Meats showed up on Daniel Vaughn’s invaluable guide to the ten best BBQ joints in Texas, coming in at #8, with the venerable Franklin up at #2. Since I don’t eat beef, Texas BBQ is largely lost on me, but Micklethwait’s pork ribs were excellent, sweet/salty with a strong smoke flavor and bright pink ring. Both the potato salad, which has mayo but tastes more of mustard, and the tart cole slaw were also excellent. If you do eat cow, they’re known for brisket and beef ribs too.

I also had dinner with my cousin at Cane Rosso, an outpost of the Dallas restaurant, and went with a non-traditional pizza, the “farmer’s only dot com” pie with arugula, mushrooms, and zucchini, topped with pesto but without tomato sauce. The dough here is really the standout, although everything on top was also bright and fresh (it was weird to get good zucchini in mid-February).

My Dallas eats were a bit limited by where I needed to go and the sheer sprawl of the Metroplex. I tried Ascension Coffee but found their pour-over really lacking in flavor or body; I probably should have known when I saw they talked up the ‘blueberry’ note in their Ethiopian Ardi, a note that is often considered a defect in Ethiopian beans. (If you’ve had it, you’d know why – it isn’t a pleasant blueberry flavor and it dominates the cup.) Ascension seems so focused on food that the coffee takes a back seat, which is a shame because it’s possible to do both.

The one other meal of note I had was at the Spiral Diner in Fort Worth, not far from TCU. There are three locations of the all-vegan restaurant, which looks like a ’50s diner gone hipster, and the menu comprises mostly familiar comfort-food dishes that have been veganized. I am not vegan, but like hitting good vegan/vegetarian restaurants on the road to try to keep my diet diverse; that said, Spiral’s menu was too focused on recreating certain non-vegetarian or vegan foods, without the ingenuity of places like Modern Love or Vedge/V Street. I ended up getting a Beyond Burger, which I’ve had before and do find pretty satisfying as a meat alternative (better than any veggie burger I’ve ever tried), and the vegan chipotle mayo that came with it was as good as the real thing. It was just kind of unremarkable, salvaged somewhat by the blueberry pie that also allowed me to taunt Mike Schur on Twitter.

Klawchat 2/28/19.

My review of the digital version of the board game Evolution is up at Ars Technica, and my review of the Kennerspiel des Jahres-winning game The Quacks of Quedlinburg is up at Paste.


Keith Law: Nature is a language – can’t you read? Klawchat.
Keith Law: (There’s your Obscure Music Quote.)

Arnold: Jays GM Ross Atkins says Vlad Jr. is not ready for the majors. He’s just trying to justify keeping him from being a Super 2 arbitration player right? He can’t be that stupid?
Keith Law: He’s not stupid, but he is too voluble. The less said, the better. Now, he’s denigrated his own player and insulted the intelligence of the fan base, to no benefit. They’re holding Vlad down to delay free agency (not Super 2 – I can’t imagine he’s in AAA *that* long), but can’t say so, so just say as little as possible.

TjF: If you were determined to get a deal done with Bryce and you felt like you had to do shorter term at high value (read: the Dodgers), would you be willing to give a 2 year opt out? Put another way – is it worth losing the pick to pay Bryce 40mm for 2 years?
Keith Law: Interesting idea, although I’d probably want to push the opt out at least one year further out, because he’s had some injury history, and I’d rather roll the dice on 2 healthy years in 3 than 2 in 2.

TjF: Is it me or does Vlad Jr look like he packed on a few extra this winter? I’m not judging, just seems like DH is going to happen sooner rather than later
Keith Law: I thought he looked as heavy as he did in the AFL, which would also point to a DH future.

Kid Koala: Your game reviews and thoughts on physical games are one of the reasons I love coming here. Just wondering if you’ve ever played Fortnite and what you think of it. Also about to be a parent and wonder about how to introduce screen games to a child. Any advice?
Keith Law: Glad you enjoy those reviews – I have not played Fortnite.

Jackson (Oakland, CA): Keith, the Cardinals advised Dakota Hudson that he should stretch out as a starter. Can you share what you believe he’ll need to work on to be effective in that role? Or would be be best suited for the bullpen, moving forward?
Keith Law: Between arm issues and lack of a good second pitch beyond the cutter, he seems better suited to the bullpen.

Oscar Madisbum: Judging from what you’e seen over the years, is it better for a team to use all your IFA money to sign one presumed 50+ player like Jasson Dominguez (supposedly going to the Yankees) or to spread the money around given how young these guys are? Thanks
Keith Law: I’d spread the money around. I haven’t seen Dominguez, but I’ve heard he’s the best player in the class but carries substantial risk factors.

Chris (Willow Spring, NC): Hi Keith – First of all, I love your minor league content, trade analysis, etc. it is the primary reason for my ESPN Insider subscription. Of the top Braves pitching prospects on the cusp of the majors, would any be best suited to a bullpen role?
Keith Law: I think any could go to the pen to develop/limit innings, but I’m not sure any would be better suited to relief than starting among the top tier. Maybe Soroka if he just can’t stay healthy in the rotation but it’s too soon for that.
Keith Law: FYI, this chat is brought to you by Trader Joe’s 73% Belgian Dark Chocolate Non-Pareils, by which I mean I bought them and am eating them while I chat.

Gavin: Regarding a nation minimum wage….do politicians really think a uniform national rate is practical? Do they not realize that it costs a lot more to live in San Francisco than it does in Rapid City? Shouldn’t this issue be one that is decided on a local level, where governments can determine a rate that meshes with the local cost of living? If the federal government is going to establish one national rate to get people in major cities to a living wage for menial work, I am moving to a small midwestern town to cook burgers at McD’s for $40 an hour.
Keith Law: Sure they realize that. Has anyone proposed a national minimum wage of $40/hour? That feels like a straw man. And nothing would stop San Francisco from mandating a higher minimum wage than the federal one. If you want to encourage people to work, it would seem that a higher wage would provide a strong incentive, no?

Tristan: Is Chris Paddack the Padres’ best starter at the end of 2019? Or do you think Lucchesi can get to another level with two pitches?
Keith Law: Paddack as the best starter in their rotation by 9/30? Sure, I’ll buy that. Don’t think Lucchesi has another level.

Nate in Seattle: Klaw, wondering your take on Marwin’s infield defense, which UZR doesn’t like. If he played 2b for a full season, would it rate as average or above average?
Keith Law: I’ll guess average but with the strong caveat that I can’t remember the last time I really watched him play 2b.
Keith Law: Or anywhere but the outfield, really.

Tristan: So it looks like Scott Kingery will start the season without a set position again. Do you think the Phils are messing with his potential by moving him around so much?
Keith Law: Yes, not a fan of doing that to young players.

TjF: Don’t want to discriminate guys based on size and handedness, but is someone really going to burn a top 5 draft pick on a 6 foot R/R first baseman?
Keith Law: Vaughn? His performance last year – against weak Pac 12 pitching – was remarkable, enough that I’m consistently hearing he’s a top 5 pick right now.

E-Rod: He might never be a 200 IP guy, but could Eduardo Rodriguez still develop into a #1 or #2 in your view? Still a lot of positives in the profile, he’s still young, and his arm’s never been hurt (even though the lower body has). Feels like he’s sometimes the forgotten man in that BoSox rotation…
Keith Law: Always been a fan. Must stay healthy, still hoping he’ll find a good enough slider to give him that missing element.

Aaron C.: People *very seriously* replying to you that the NFL uses “N/8” for ease of comparative measurement (re: Kyler Murray) makes me sad for, like, humanity.
Keith Law: If you can’t compare 3/8 and 1/2 in your head, how do you manage to get out of the house without garroting yourself on your own shoelaces?

Aaron C.: When you scout Arizona in the spring, do you (a) hit up all 15(?) camps; (b) only scout pre-determined list of players; (c) select the team/players based on good restaurant proximity?
Keith Law: Target players. Plenty of time to get from an afternoon game to a good restaurant.
Keith Law: BTW, Roland’s Market in Phoenix closed, rather suddenly, last week. Just some news for folks headed out there who might have wanted to visit based on my recommendations. It’s going to become a larger, second location of Pane Bianco.

Matt: If someone like Ben Shapiro or Candace Owens ever engaged you on a retweet or a comment you made regarding one of their posts or ‘thoughts’, would you engage them? With that in mind… has that ever happened to you?
Keith Law: It hasn’t, but the main reason I might demur would be the volume of replies I’d get from their adherents. I do use Twitter to communicate with all of you – well, some of you – and that might make it unusable.

Moe Mentum: Rank the following six retired 2nd basemen (primarily) in terms of their worthiness for Cooperstown: Bobby Grich, Jeff Kent, Willie Randolph, Chase Utley, Lou Whitaker, Frank White.
Keith Law: Whitaker, Grich, Utley, Randolph, Kent, White.

Moe Mentum: College tuition payments are an investment rather than an expense, right? But how should we measure the return on our investment? It’s not just starting salary upon graduation, but how else should (can?) we quantify the benefits, especially compared to other schools?
Keith Law: Are they an investment? I’m not sure the tuition for four years at a private university has a good enough ROI to quality. The tuition for the same degree at a public university might be the investment; the marginal cost of a typical private university would be an expense.

David: What is your opinion on the Francona’s son vs Kapler issue?
Keith Law: That is a personal matter and I don’t see how or why I would get involved.

Jesse B: How good of hitter was Michael Lorenzen coming out of college?
Keith Law: Not good at all.

John: Thoughts on Miles Mikolas extension?
Keith Law: Could be great if 2018 was real. Surprising commitment based on one year of performance, although his underlying numbers were all pretty positive.

Robert: Adley feels like a pretty solid #1 talent. Better than recent years but perhaps not generational. How do you think he stacks up talent wise to recent 1s?
Keith Law: I’ll see him in a few weeks, but I feel like he’s below the last couple of 1-1 picks.

Aaron C.: Previously, you’ve stated you’re “in” on Matt Chapman and “out” on Franklin Barreto from a growth/development standpoint. Standing pat on Matt Olson? Is this kind of…all there is? (Which is fine…I guess.)
Keith Law: He’s fine. Would be surprised if there’s more bat there, and I think his glove isn’t quite as good as his reputation.

Robert: Do you have any hope Quantril will see his stuff return? What if he ditched the breaker and became similar to Paddack if less command. Could he start?
Keith Law: Needs more stuff, period. Nothing like Paddack, unfortunately.

Jeremiah: Hey Keith…love your work. Where do you think the Padres start Tatis jr this year…double aa or triple aaa? Thx
Keith Law: Triple-A. Already has more than 4 months at AA.

JT: *Last year* was the delay in Vladdy’s service time. This year is cruel and unusual.
Keith Law: Agreed. He should have been up in May or at worst June. I said on the BBTN podcast today that if MLB had an incentive for noncontending teams to win now – such as better draft position, more international money, or increased revenue sharing – he would have been up.

DaveAlden53: In looking at prospect listings from various sources, there seems to be more variation between than in past years. I’m not going to ask why you’re higher or lower on particular players. (I’m married so don’t need any more snark.) But will instead ask whether you think increased data (launch angle, exit velo, spin rate), new focus on mechanical changes (DriveLine, etc.), and evolving analytical tools (DRC+, etc.) is causing a divergence of opinions.
Keith Law: Maybe? I use what the teams use, to the extent that I’m able. Never heard a team mention DRC+, for example, but spin rate, exit velo, extension come up quite often.

Robert: How far behind is Luis Campusano from a guy like Melendez?
Keith Law: I think I’d have Campusano ahead of Melendez. Did I rank them the other way somewhere?

Josh: Do you think the A’s will offer Kyler Murray an MLB contract over and above what he would get in the NFL Draft, like Rosenthal suggested? Seems like all of Murray’s actions have provided great leverage, but at the end of the day the money talks. If you offered him $35mm over 7 years, he’d bank that before theoretically hitting arbitration (4 option years and 3 pre-arb provided the CBA remains largely the same).
Keith Law: If I’m the A’s I just walk away. He’s not interested in baseball. Don’t throw good money after bad.

Jen Carroll: Keith – have you followed the rather precipitous fall of Mike Isabella’s empire? The Post did a pretty lurid look at his gross behavior that should be of no surprise to anyone who watched him on Top Chef (“no offense, but a girl shouldn’t beat me!”, even if she’s freakin’ Eric Ripert’s Chef de Cuisine, you tool?). But even with all that, I’m a little shocked at how quickly it all came tumbling down.
Keith Law: He just came to mind the other day when I saw a photo of some other past TC contestants – he’s completely vanished. Well-earned, though. So much toxic behavior in restaurant kitchens, likely more revelations to come.

Ken : when you worked for the BJays – did you and did you enjoy living in Toronto?
Keith Law: I never lived there, but spent a lot of time there and loved the city. Had moving cross-border been easier I would happily have moved.

Gabe: To be a major league regular, what type of line do you think Bobby Dalbec will need to produce? Will a 220/330/450 line get it done?
Keith Law: Don’t think that he gets there. That’s a very rosy OBP scenario.

TK: Another good reason you left Arizona: lawmakers last week advanced not one, not two but THREE bills that would make it easier to get vaccine exemptions and would require doctors to provide information on “potential harms” of vaccines … Ugh.
Keith Law: The population isn’t that insane, but the legislature is.

An angry Mets fan: Given that the two biggest contracts given out this offseason (Arenado and Machado) came from franchises that wouldn’t be considered financial juggernauts, can we start replacing “Team X can’t afford this player” with “Team X doesn’t want to afford this player”?
Keith Law: We should. Too many writers carrying water for owners, though.

Alex: Deranged Braves fan with a question that isn’t about the Braves. In my view, would it make strategic sense for the players union to negotiate with owners about the share of revenue that goes to players?
Keith Law: Yes, I feel like this is inevitable. I think it’s worked in the NBA, no? At least for sustained labor peace and a positive relationship between players and the league?

barbeach: Klaw: Thanks so much for the chat. Luke Voit or Greg Bird? Could Voit be for real?
Keith Law: I’d go with an outside option for 1b.

addoeh: I was pleasantly surprised to see Quinn Priester in your initial top 30 draft prospects ranking. How big of a disadvantage does he have given his season starts much later than prospects in warmer climates?
Keith Law: He’ll do fine – Kelenic went 6th, from the same general area, and with pitchers it’s even easier because you can do a relatively complete evaluation off one start, seeing stuff, size, mechanics, command, athleticism in one shot.

quack quack: Duck legs. Where do you get them? I can get whole duck, but I have to special order leg quarters and pay an arm and (ha ha) a leg for them, $14/lb. It’s cheaper to buy whole duck and cut it up, so why not just braise the breast quarters too as long as you’re at it?
Keith Law: Whole Foods has them intermittently or can order them. They freeze well, too.

Todd Boss: Harper Harper Harper! How relieved are you going to be when he finally signs and we can move on from a narrative perspective?
Keith Law: I’ve certainly had enough of this as a general story and of Philly writers/radio people taking cheap shots at Harper for (checks notes) letting his agent handle negotiations.

Sam: If the first regular season game is on March 20th, does that mark the start of the year for everyone, or just those teams? Asking so I know when Guerrero and Jimenez will magically stop needing minor league seasoning.
Keith Law: Just those teams.

Randall Stephens: How worried should I be about Kershaw? Can his FB get back to 93-94?
Keith Law: I think he can succeed averaging 90 mph, but I’m more concerned that his arm is sore. Seems like he’s never come up with a complaint about arm soreness.

Nick: Do you think Harper will take less to go to the West Coast? And how bad would it be if the Phillies were outbid?
Keith Law: No, I think he’ll take the most lucrative offer, period.

Beetlejuice: Hello Keith. Draft class looks pretty rough on the college pitching side – any guys you think have late life to jump into the top 5?
Keith Law: Right now, no.

Stanley: He just turned 18 a few months ago. Does Luis Garcia (PHI) have enough projection to get to 50 power?
Keith Law: Probably.

Mike: You’ve probably answered this at one point, but have you seen Ex Machina? Finally watched it for first time last night and it’s the best sci-fi film I’ve seen in awhile.
Keith Law: Yep, review is somewhere on this site. “I’m gonna tear up the fuckin’ dance floor” is one of the best lines/scenes of the decade.

Dave: In your organizational write-up, you noted that Detroit hadn’t gotten production from its international signings– is that because of poor scouting, not putting enough resources into either scouting or signing players, bad luck… or something else?
Keith Law: I don’t know what their investment in the region has been, but they haven’t produced players. They’ve had few big-dollar signings, though.

James: Will you have a chance to get out to San Diego to see Spencer Jones and/or Derek Diamond?
Keith Law: Right now, neither is good enough for me to make the trip.

Kevin : Are many players still older than their listed ages (cough:Pujols:cough) or is that becoming a thing of the past?
Keith Law: I still hear of those from time to time. Mostly players from Cuba now, rather than players from the DR, which was most common pre-9/11 and has since become almost nonexistent.

Mason: Who do you think is starting in center field for the Reds on opening day?
Keith Law: Why not Senzel? Who’s the better option?

Jay: Any remarks on Paddack’s ST outing, particularly on fastball location or new curveball shape he’s been working on?
Keith Law: Absolutely not. One brief ST outing when players are still getting into game shape tells us little to nothing.

CJ: Are you reporting to spring training in the best shape of your career?
Keith Law: Definitely not.

Jonny: Mount Rushmore of favorite movies ever?
Keith Law: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. Amelie. North by Northwest. Double Indemnity. Ugh, so many I have to leave out – Charade, To Catch a Thief, WALL-E … didn’t mention any musicals … The Maltese Falcon, Strangers on a Train, The Apartment … I could go on for a while.

Jim: Do teams place any personnel decisions on spring training performance or are those decisions already made in advance?
Keith Law: I think it still happens more than it should. ST should be for making sure everyone is healthy and ready to go, but less for new evaluations unless there is a tangible, physical explanation.

Matt: I was reading your foreign language learning strategy and in regards to the flashcards, would you still use the physical cards or do you know of a good online program or app that you would use now?
Keith Law: I’ve tried some apps and none has really worked for me.

Jay: Tatis callup on May 1 sound about right to you? Or more seasoning
Keith Law: He’s played less than a full season of games above low-A. I don’t know how ready he is right now – he might be so good it doesn’t matter, but I am not banging the drum for him as I am for Vlad Jr. or Eloy.

Mark: Should the Nats offer Rendon the same contract extension that Arenado just got? I’d be more heartbroken if he left than Harper honestly.
Keith Law: Yes.

Mike: Klaw, thanks for your great work. I’m looking for restaurant recommendations for Charlotte. My wife loves chain restaurants, so I want her to try something that perhaps you can recommend.
Keith Law: I have spent very little time there, so I’m sorry but I don’t have any.

AES: I can’t read the rankings because ESPN+ isn’t available to dirty foreigners. So I’m asking, it seems the hosiery trade worked out perfect for the Crimson, as Sale has been great, flags fly forever, but how much hav e koepech/moncada dropped?
Keith Law: If you sign up through a VPN and choose digital delivery, you should be able to subscribe. Moncada is no longer eligible, and Kopech only dropped because he got hurt.

Jack: In your opinion, is this offseason a disaster for the Phillies if they dont get Harper?
Keith Law: No, but it’ll be a bad winter.

John: Plan on ever going to Morgantown, WV to see Manoah or any other guys?
Keith Law: More likely I’ll get him on the road. That’s not easy to get to from here.

Mike: Did you have a chance to watch Kikuchi pitch? If so, any takeaways?
Keith Law: I’ll try to see him live, not on tv.

Beetlejuice: With the service time manipulation in the news – can you point to any players that weren’t ready in one facet and might have benefited significantly from another 2-3 months to refine that one skill (so they wouldn’t have to learn on the job in the majors)? Wouldn’t you say that is a legitimate reason to hold off on promoting a high level prospect? (especially if the player is young/hasn’t had many reps in the minors)
Keith Law: Jose Guillen comes to mind. Jumped to the majors at 19, never progressed much after that.

Greg: Hey, Keith. What do you think is the biggest reason that a large percentage of US citizens don’t seem to care/realize that the president is implicated in many, many crimes? Crimes that would be the hugest scandal in the world for any previous president. Is it a lack of knowledge? Tribalism run amok? Or the gradual normalization and slow trickle of all the crimes just makes everybody shrug. Rick Santorum actually defended Trump’s constant lying about Russia by saying it wasn’t surprising because Trump lies about everything.
Keith Law: Tribalism run amok is a good way to phrase it. Many people do not care about issues beyond those of their religion, such as trying to ban abortion, or protecting their own race.

Teddy Ballgame: Best pizza around Scottsdale, go. I’m there for two days in early March.
Keith Law: Bianco, Pomo, cibo, Craft 64. Apparently I need to try Myke’s pizza truck, too.

Sean: Where do you stand on intangible traits? Some are clearly just voo doo (like clutchiness), while some might be real but just impossible to quantify and therefore shouldn’t be included in contract negotiations? Can you give examples of some of the latter?
Keith Law: If they exist enough for us to identify them, they’re probably not intangible. Work ethic would be one. “Desire” gets a little wonky. Good in the clubhouse is mostly bullshit.

Jon: Nolan Arenado was hardly a league average player with a .772 OPS away from Coors last season. Obviously a different story in Denver. That being said, what are your thoughts on the contract? Too rich for my blood at zero fault to arenado. Go get your money!
Keith Law: Great for the player. It’s not fair to just look at a Rockies player’s road splits, though – if you put Arenado at sea level he wouldn’t post that road stat line. But I don’t think I’d want him at that salary level into his 30s.

Dan: Hi Keith, do you think Miles Mikolas and Shane Bieber can repeat their success from last year? St Louis obviously believes in Mikolas.
Keith Law: Bieber had a 4.55 ERA and will probably be more homer-prone going forward.

Evan: Ke’Bryan Hayes a 25 HR guy if the MLB ball doesn’t change?
Keith Law: I’ll buy that.

Joel: Are you buying Moniak’s second half? Are the tools still there to be a first division regular?
Keith Law: I’m not buying that.

Deke: What do you think of Joe Sheehan’s argument that the pace of play stuff is almost entirely borne of writers wanting to go home sooner, and the industry’s rising revenues prove that there’s not really a problem?
Keith Law: Partial agreement, partial disagreement. I do think there is a pace of play issue, but it’s 90% about commercials, not this other crap (although I’d like to see someone nail hitters’ feet in the batter’s box). Rising revenues do show that the sport is healthy, but revenues have risen faster than fan interest (such as the total # of people interested in the sport).

Brett: Do you feel like a lot of the hype or mystique that usually begins a new season has been lessened or tainted by greedy ownership and the labor strife? In my small group of Baseball friends, I can’t remember a time they were less excited for a new season.
Keith Law: Yes.

Cartoons Plural : Wander Franco starts 2019 in Bowling Green. Where do you expect him to finish the year at?
Keith Law: Port Charlotte.

Kevin : Was you (still are) a fan on early 90’s grunge/alternative?
Keith Law: Yep.

War biscuit : What order do you prefer these college SS: Holland, Stott, Shewmake and Davidson
Keith Law: I just ranked them all on Tuesday.

The Decider: Are you doing a breakout players for 2019 column?
Keith Law: Yes.

Kevin : Seems like Democrats should talk about farm bailouts being actual socialism as opposed to healthcare?
Keith Law: The right’s messaging on “socialism” has been far too effective, because most Americans don’t know what socialism means – really, I’d guess 60-70% could not correctly define the term – and thus saying “we’re not socialists!” isn’t very useful. The left needs better messaging on this: these are policies that will do X, Y, and Z *for you*.

Nathan: I LOVE my Anova but I feel like it’s steak after steak after steak with maybe a chicken thrown in once in a while. Any good ways to mix it up or just use it for what it’s good at? Also, do you vacuum seal bags, use ziplocks, etc.?
Keith Law: Vacuum seal. I don’t eat steak so I use mine for chicken thighs, duck legs, occasionally pork chops, even some vegetables that require a long cooking time like beets.

addoeh: For young pitchers where you see their long term future is as a reliever, when should the team move him to reliever? Is it when he is major league ready? At what point should they stop thinking that there could be a small chance to be a starter?
Keith Law: I think performance will usually tell you.
Keith Law: Or health. If a guy starts breaking down you’d rather move him sooner rather than later.

John: What did you eat at Xochi? Sorry if you’ve posted that somewhere and I missed it.
Keith Law: The crispy duck and some divine chocolate thing (river and rocks, something like that). To die for.

Mark: You’ve probably tackled this before but once more for idiots in the back like me… Why shouldn’t teams behave exactly like the Blue Jays are with Vlad? It just seems like good business given the parameters that exist right now. Baseball writers will wring their hands but I don’t think the teams give a damn about that. I suppose you run the risk of pissing the player off, but 7 years is a long time and feelings can (and probably do) change in that period of time. I agree that the current system is idiotic, but I cant really fault teams for doing what they think is the best business decision, and in most cases, locking in a top young player for an extra year seems like a sound business decision given the squishiness of the downsides.
Keith Law: My main baseball problem with this is the idea that you can accurately predict 1) what the player will be like 7 years from now 2) what your team will be like 7 years from now and 3) what the rules will be like 7 years from now.
Keith Law: Plus, what if the Jays had called Vlad up in June, and he’d hit like Mike Trout for three-plus months? Maybe they like their projections for 2019 more and decide to add to the team rather than subtracting? Maybe more fans show up, or buy season tickets, so there’s more cash in the till going forward? The blanket assumption that holding the player down will be, unequivocally, a positive for the team does not hold water for me.

Paul: I feel like that guy disproved his own point. If he moved because of a similar wage in a low COLA area, then cities would be forced to pay a living wage to keep their residents. Thurs showing a benefit of a Federally mandated minimum wage.
Keith Law: Fair point. We tried to pass one in Delaware a year ago, to $11, and it failed by something like two votes, so I’m planning to work to unseat my Senator, who voted against it.

Scott: Are you getting the new Castles of Burgundy app?
Keith Law: Is it out yet? I will when it’s available.

Craig R.: Keith, early MLB Draft question. Any specific HS player that might have the most helium or chance to jump up come June?
Keith Law: I just ranked a top 30 the other day; if I like a player the way you’re described, he’s ranked that way on the list.

Mike: Loved your oscar podcast, and hoping there is a regular Klaw podcast sometime in the future. Do you have any podcasts (besides G & L) that you listen to regularly?
Keith Law: thanks! I listen to Hidden Brain, Crimetown, Hugh Acheson Stirs the Pot (been *really* enjoying that lately), BBC’s The Inquiry.

Zach: Isn’t it “radical” that AOC was the most rational speaker at the hearing yesterday? Pun intended!
Keith Law: The young women reps were way more prepared and presented better than the majority of the men. Amazing what a little diversity will do for any group.

Robby: As a prospect enthusiast, who is the top Midwest draft prospect that I should go out and see when the snow melts?
Keith Law: I think Misner was the top midwest guy on my list the other day, unless you count Texas as Midwest (I do not).

Jeff: If you had to pick one guy from the Dbacks that has the highest star potential in the minors, who is it? Thomas? Chisolm?
Keith Law: Chisholm now, only real competition for that is Robinson.

Tim: Will Moncada be a horror show at 3B?
Keith Law: I saw him play it in the AFL and I thought he was adequate. Not average, but decent enough to think he might stay there.

Joe: Everyone makes fun of the “best shape of his life” reports every spring…but Cubs Twitter made a good point when David Bote came into camp in great shape. As a lower draft pick who was never a top prospect, this is probably his first offseason where he has been able to concentrate on baseball instead of saving up money for the season. Not paying minor leaguers is so counterproductive.
Keith Law: I like your point although I don’t know that this makes Bote’s projections any different.

Joshue: It’s unfair to think Hudson Potts has to move off 3B now, right? Is he the most obvious trade candidate for SD?
Keith Law: I wrote in my Machado reaction piece that he was trade bait.
Keith Law: I don’t see him profiling as a regular at another position, so dealing him is the best use of his value.

Nick: A thought I had on the whole question of service time manipulation and the depressed FA market…what if MLB decided that teams who didn’t win at least x games for y consecutive seasons, with a combination of low payroll commitment, saw a dip in their share of the league revenue. Like, a team wins fewer than 75 games for 3 years a never cracks the top 22 in league payroll during that times sees their share of the revenue drop from 1/30 to 1/45 or 1/60? Would this provide enough incentive for teams to sing more middle class FAs who will help them be competitive?
Keith Law: Yes – I’d like to see revenue sharing tied to wins. I’ve come around on changing some of these fundamental assumptions about the game, because teams have stopped distributing as much revenue to the players, and that’s untenable both as a practical matter and, to me, as a philosophical issue.

Joel: Which Luis Garcia would you rather have?
Keith Law: The one who made my top 100, of course.

Brian: To address the earlier question on a $40 minimum wage…wouldn’t people deciding to move from San Fran to more rural areas be an overall positive outcome for the country?
Keith Law: Debatable. We may not be at the ideal equilibrium, but getting more people into cities, using public transport & ditching cars, would have positive externalities.
Keith Law: Hey, it looks like Harper might have signed with the Phillies after all. That’s a lot of full diapers over nothing.

Tim: Will we see Madrigal in the show this year?
Keith Law: I would be very surprised.
Keith Law: They didn’t call up Eloy when he was ready last year. Madrigal would be barely a year out of college.

Jesus: Are you even willing to accept that there are plenty arguments that The Green Book was a very good movie? Or do you simply decide anyone who enjoyed it is wrong because you say so?
Keith Law: That would be the loaded question fallacy, “Jesus.” Kindly take the door on your left.

JD: Pretty sure you’ve answered this before, but what board games would you introduce to a ~6-year-old?
Keith Law: That’s one I’m happy to answer regularly – Ticket to Ride First Journey is perfect. I’m told the kids’ versions of Catan and Carcassonne are also fun. You can play One Night Ultimate Werewolf with kids that young too. My niece is 6 and really likes Jaipur now, which is great if a bit surprising because of the foresight required to play it. (She’s bright, though.) I think the base Dominion game could work if you’re selective about the cards you choose for the table.

Edgar: Have you seen Josh Jung? My goodness that is a smooth swing.
Keith Law: Only video. He’ll be a tough get but I will try.

David: Hi Keith. My fellow Cards fans keep suggesting Flaherty is on the same level as Buehler. I disagree – but is it close?
Keith Law: No, not really close, but Flaherty is really damn good (and, cough, I regularly ranked him on my top 100 too).

Guest: Despite the horror show that was most of the main category winners, I actually thought the Oscars were better w no host. Either give me the SNL troika as hosts for everything or go hostless, I say.
Keith Law: Agreed. I thought the show itself was mostly very entertaining, and some of the presenters were great (McCarthy/Henry, Mulaney/Awkwafina). Grierson and Leitch commented on their podcast that if Roma had won Best Picture, everyone would be talking about how great the telecast was.

justin: Are you still a believer in Arcia?
Keith Law: Yep. Still young, very very talented.

Paul: Hey Keith – sounds like UGA has a couple stud pitchers for the 2020 draft. Excited to get back to Athens??
Keith Law: Hancock maybe, Wilcox for ’21. I think I’ll end up there this year to see a road team and get a look at Schunk.

Jay: ESPN subscription renewal coming soon. Are you able to share any insights on your ongoing status at ESPN (ie. beyond 2019)?
Keith Law: I have no updates – my contract runs through December, and that’s all.

Ira: Why aren’t more players taught multiple positions when being developed in the minors? It would give teams more flexibility and the player would have added value.
Keith Law: I feel like most teams do this already, no? I hear it constantly when making calls for the rankings.

Cartoons Plural : Tyler Glasnow’s pause in his delivery, good or bad thing?
Keith Law: Neither. What may be good for one pitcher may be bad for another.

Brian: I really thought nothing would beat Don Jr as the real life GOB Bluth and then came Matthew Calamari
Keith Law: I so wanted to make a Gene Parmesan joke but Lana Berry beat me to it.

EL: Canadian baseball fan who must know: Who’s the better Naylor? The better Pompey?
Keith Law: The younger, and the younger.

Bill: Can Keon Broxton hit enough to be an everyday CFer?
Keith Law: IMO no. Did it once, for most of a year, that’s it.

JR: Do you bother watching Spring Training games on mlb.tv? I’m guessing only if you know a top prospect is going to be playing?
Keith Law: Because I often can’t see the angles I want I find the experience rather frustrating. And it’s spring training, where the games are (Allen Iverson voice) PRAC-tice.

Andy: I am trying to get into earlier Opeth. They are interesting musically, but I really can’t figure out how to like the harsh singing. While I can understand the music needs the harsh singing, it completely takes me out of the music. How do you compensate for music that’s good, other than cookie monster growling?
Keith Law: I hear you (pun intended). I can tune that out with some artists, like Opeth, less with others, like Obituary, who have long done very interesting stuff on the border of thrash and death metal but whose singer sounds like he’s flossing with a chainsaw.

Zihuatanejo: In a recent spring training game, in all but 3 PAs for the entire game the Dodger hitters swung at the first pitch they saw. Do you think that was: 1) a random thing that happened; 2) a directive from the dugout; or 3) an inside joke between the players?
Keith Law: I’d guess 2, then 3, but not 1.

Robert: Did you drop in to any new restaurants in austin last week?
Keith Law: Better Half, Micklethwait, Backspace, Cane Rosso (been to the Dallas one).

JD: Doesn’t keeping somebody down for service time reasons violate the CBA? I thought that was why management always pretends it’s for other reasons, and you occasionally get grievances. So it’s not just “the best business decision,” it’s against the rules
Keith Law: It does. But you can’t prove it if they don’t admit it.

PULLEY: Regarding Vlad Jr and the BS service time manipulation… why doesnt a player like him or kris Bryant in 2015, when it’s obvious they are being held down for manipulation purposes only come out and say something like “if I am sent down I will not negotiate any extension in the future and will fully explore free agency no matter what.”
Keith Law: Idle threat.

Zach: Minimum Wage – Federal steps in because if not Texas and Mississippi would be paying $2.50 an hour.
Keith Law: You think they’d pay that much?

Dave: I was reading Fangraphs Top Prospects list (I know you think highly of them and work with them at times) and in their writeup of Andres Gimenez (on which they had him ranked much higher than you) they mention that ppl may have gotten a different impression on him based on when they saw him. They said he looked pretty blah in the AFL but very possibily couldve been due to fatigue from a long season. I know that you saw him in person at the AFL and came away relatively “meh” on his hitting. Did you factor in the potential fatigue aspect at that point or do you feel that that may be overblown.
Keith Law: I do factor that in, but 1) that’s not the only time I saw him and 2) I ask a *lot* of people before doing those rankings.

Brian: Dylan Cozens has impressed people in Phillies camp. Does a guy like that with massive tools and massive holes always have a chance to break out, or once he hits a certain age/stage of development do the holes become very unlikely to be closed enough to take advantage of the tools?
Keith Law: One massive tool, the power, that’s it. Not a good player, just a guy with raw power.

Tyler: Today Liberty Media showed Braves’ revenue surged to $442M for 2018. Their 2019 payroll is currently lower than last year after winning the NL East. What is wrong with this picture?
Keith Law: Well, an hour ago, you might have argued they were still favorites or close to it to win the division. Now…

Jeremy: No question, thanks for the chats. Also, another newer pizza place in Phoenix that is fantastic is BASE pizza on Lincoln.
Keith Law: Adds to the list. Taking suggestions, of course.

Phillies Prospects: How frustrating is it when people repost your work that was behind the ESPN paywall? Where Siani or Newell close to the top 30?
Keith Law: Not just frustrating – it’s illegal. If you see it, say something, to me or to the site’s operators. Neither was close but I will certainly see both as they play within an hour of me. Also the HS pitcher near Philly whose name escapes me right now.

War biscuit : I believe Wilcox is a draft eligible sophomore so he may be eligible for 2020
Keith Law: Didn’t realize that, so much the better if he is.

Nat: What’s your opinion of Harper getting $330 mil over 13 with no opt-outs according to Passan?
Keith Law: Love it.
Keith Law: Phillies are the preseason favorites for the division now. Granted, that doesn’t mean much when the games start, but still, good deal.

Cartoons Plural : Saw Detroit ranked as a Top 10 farm, mainly because of apparently lots of MLB ready talent? Is it quantity or quality?
Keith Law: They’re not a top 10 farm.

Pierre: Phillis pitching sucks after Nola.
Keith Law: Good taek.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Might do a Periscope tomorrow now that we have more news to discuss, but I’ll wrap this one up here. Thank you as always for reading, and for all of your questions. I’ll write something up on Harper this afternoon. Enjoy your weekends.

Popular Music from Vittula.

I really need to start writing down where I hear about certain books, because once again, I can’t figure out who told me about Mikael Niemi’s Popular Music from Vittula, a quirky, intelligent, yet often vulgar novel that delivers vignettes from a child’s memories of growing up in a small Swedish town inside the Arctic Circle and right near the Finnish border. Niemi, who grew up in that same region, Pajala, has a quick wit and delves into the kind of issues that would surround people in that environment – a linguistic minority also coping with extreme weather and sunlight patterns – but sinks the novel with some stylistic leaps and overemphasis on gross-out humor.

Vittula is the colloquial and unprintable (in translation) name of the village where the narrator Matti and his best friend Niila live, experiencing adventures real and fantastical, forming an ad hoc garage band, drinking too much, discovering girls (and then having something vaguely resembling sex with them), and … well, puking and shitting and peeing all over the place, as it seems. It’s as if Niemi started out trying to write a fictional memoir that would be heavy on the magical realism, and then shifted partway through to write something the Farrelly Brothers might call ‘a bit much.’

Those first few chapters are the most delightful, as the kids are younger – which may explain why the memories veer into the impossible, which becomes less prevalent as they get older – and so many things are new to them. Music is a regular theme in the book; at one point the boys get their first record, discover the Beatles, and create that incompetent rock band with two other classmates, even staging a few shows before anyone but the guitarist (who has drunk deeply of Jimi Hendrix, even though the book seems to be set before Hendrix arrived on the scene) knows how to play his instrument.

There’s also an ongoing theme of language and linguistic identity, established early in the novel as Niila appears to be mute but suddenly is able to translate the words of a visiting African priest who tries a dozen languages before hitting on one Niila knows (I won’t spoil it, as it’s a pretty funny moment). The residents of Vittula are in linguistic purgatory, as they’re part of Sweden, but Finnish by descent, and speak a local Finnish dialect first and Swedish second. This deepens the sense of isolation already in place due to geography, while also fostering a keen sense of community among the older generations, some of who view anyone who leaves the Pajala region as a traitor. Niemi even loops in the Laestadians, a revivalist Christian movement that began in the Sápmi region, although I think some of his references to its tenets were lost on me.

The memories of Niemi’s narrator are colored, or I guess discolored, by bodily fluids, which seem to flow freely in every chapter. Adults and children alike get drunk on moonshine, rotgut, and beer smuggled over the Finnish border, and then piss or beshit themselves, or, if they’re still capable of standing, engage in competitions over who can urinate the highest or farthest. (This does lead to one of the few bits of bathroom humor I found funny, late in the book, when Matti wins such a competition in artistic fashion.) Men and boys are throwing up all over the place – the women and girls in the book rarely even get names and are mostly above this kind of wanton drunkenness – and Matti and Niila sometimes roll over unconscious adults to ensure they don’t choke to death. And then there’s the blood, albeit not human blood, which shows up in a chapter when a visiting writer offers to pay Matti a bounty for each mouse he kills at the cottage the writer is renting, which leads to a widespread muricide (by Matti), described graphically, that ends in disaster. It’s hard to square Matti’s delight in killing these rodents with the depiction of his character in other parts of the book, especially when he speaks as an adult in the epilogue.

There is some highbrow or at least not-lowbrow humor in Popular Music in Vittula, but there just isn’t enough of it, and once the drinking starts in a chapter, we’re trapped in a mire of people falling down and soiling themselves and yelling or mumbling or just whipping out their dicks. If that’s your cup of tea, you may enjoy this book a lot more than I did, but I found it a tougher slog the closer I got to the end, and that brief epilogue just felt so disconnected from the rest of the book that I wasn’t sure what I had just read.

Next up: Lisa Halliday’s Asymmetry.

Oscar picks for 2019.

With the Oscars coming up tonight, I’ve put together this post with some loose predictions, my own picks for each award, and, most importantly, links to every one of these films I’ve reviewed. I’ve seen everything nominated in all of these categories except one documentary, one foreign film, and one animated short. 

Chris Crawford and I also recorded a podcast (for the second year in a row) to preview the Oscars, which you can download via iTunes or SoundCloud.

 

Best Picture

BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

Who will win: Roma
Who I’d vote for: Roma

Snubs: I don’t understand why the Academy would only fill eight of its ten allotted spots for nominations in this category, especially in a year with easily twice that many films worthy of the honor. The two most obvious candidates the Academy overlooked here were First Man and If Beale Street Could Talk, but I’d also have pushed for Burning, Cold War, even Widows before pablum like Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody.

Best Director

BlacKkKlansman
Cold War
The Favourite
Roma
Vice

Who will win: Roma (Alfonso Cuarón)
Who I’d vote for: Roma

Snubs: I’m surprised Bradley Cooper wasn’t nominated for A Star is Born.

I’d be very surprised if Cuarón lost this one, even if Roma doesn’t win Best Picture.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Virgo Mortensen, Green Book

Who will win: Bale
Who I’d vote for: Cooper

The Academy really botched this category, giving four of five nods to actors who portrayed real people, three of them giving us extended impersonations that were more remarkable for their accuracy than for any depth of performance. The fifth is playing a role that has been played three times before. Is that what the Oscar is supposed to reward? Is this acting, or just impersonating?

It seems like Malek has the popular momentum, and maybe he and his prosthetic teeth will win the award, but I’ll be a bit contrarian here and predict Bale takes the honor because the role is also more ‘important’ – Vice is an unabashedly political film, an outright attack on the legacy of the George W. Bush years, that has to resonate with the generally left-wing voters of the Academy.

Snubs: Woof. Ethan Hawke for First Reformed and Joaquin Phoenix for You Were Never Really Here come to mind immediately. Ryan Gosling was great in First Man; Stephan James was solid in If Beale Street Could Talk.

Best Actress

Yulitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Who will win: Close
Who I’d vote for: Colman

The Wife was the worst movie I saw in 2018 – it is awful, sentimental, hackneyed, one-dimensional dreck – yet Close seems likely to win for a fine performance of a poorly-written character.

Snubs: No shortage of whiffs here either – Rosamund Pike for A Private War, Joanna Kulig for Cold War, Elsie Fisher for Eighth Grade, Viola Davis for Widows, Natalie Portman for Annihilation, Juliette Binoche for Let the Sunshine In, Claire Foy for First Man (perhaps as a Supporting Actress).

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Who will win: Ali
Who I’d vote for: Ali*

I put an asterisk there because I’m torn between Ali and Driver – BlacKkKlansman does not work without Driver’s performance. Grant is wonderful as well.

Snubs: Rockwell belongs here least of all – he’s just doing a good impression of W. as an amiable post-frat boy. His slot should have gone to Steven Yeun for Burning, and you could make a case for Michael B. Jordan for Black Panther.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Who will win: King
Who I’d vote for: Weisz

King has been penciled in as a lock since before this movie even hit theaters, even though she’s not in the film very much and her role isn’t all that well-written. Weisz and Stone both had far more to do – there’s a real debate over whether those are supporting roles at all – and do more with what they’re given.

Snubs: Elizabeth Debecki for Widows. Her performance was the film’s biggest revelation and she had by far the best story arc of the script; Adams’ spot should have gone to her.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

What will win: BlacKkKlansman
What I’d vote for: If Beale Street Could Talk

This feels like the spot where Spike Lee gets an Oscar, even though the screenplay for BlacKkKlansman was all over the place. Of course, I think Burning deserved a nomination here, certainly over the Coens’ screenplay for what was basically an anthology.

 

Best Original Screenplay

The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice

What will win: The Favourite
What should win: The Favourite

As much as I loved Roma, the screenplay itself is the least important part of the film – it’s the look, feel, and sound of the thing, as well as the lead performance by Aparicio.

Best Foreign Language Film

Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters

What will win: Roma
What I’d vote for: Roma

I haven’t seen Never Look Away, from the director/writer of The Lives of Others, because it’s 188 minutes long. This feels like a dead lock for Roma, but my #1 movie of 2018 was South Korea’s submission, Burning, which made the shortlist (of nine films) yet missed the cut for the final five. It absolutely should have taken Capernaum‘s slot.

Best Animated Feature

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse

What will win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse
What I’d vote for: Isle of Dogs

This also feels like a lock, although I think Spider-Man is notable only for its animation style, with a very undistinguished story that relies on superhero tropes and far too much violence for its audience. Isle of Dogs may have come out too early in the year, and it may have suffered from criticisms of its portrayal of Japanese culture, but it’s a better movie across the board – and so is Mirai.

Snubs: Tito and the Birds, a Brazilian film with gorgeous animation and a good story, would have been a far better choice than Ralph Breaks the Internet, which is a mostly forgettable sequel.

Best Documentary Feature

Free Solo
Hale County, This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG

What will win: Minding the Gap
What I’d vote for: Of Fathers and Sons

I haven’t seen Free Solo yet – I will in about two weeks – but I truly have no good sense of what’s going to win this one, especially since the most popular documentary of 2018, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, was one of the biggest surprise omissions of all of the nominations this year. It’s remarkable that Of Fathers and Sons was even made, and its story is as important as any of the five nominated films.

Best Animated Short Film

Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends

What will win: Bao
What I’d vote for: Weekends

I haven’t seen Animal Behaviour, but any of the other four could win and I’d be happy with it. All are well-made, appealing to look at, and boast strong, short stories. I’d say Late Afternoon is the weakest of the four.

Best Documentary Short

Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.

Lifeboat was the only one of these I didn’t fully appreciate; the others are all excellent. A Night at the Garden was assembled from existing footage of a pro-Nazi rally at Madison Square Garden in the 1930s, and runs all of seven minutes; I can’t see voting for that over the others, which are all original works. End Game is the most moving, and devastating. Black Sheep is the most original. Period. End of Sentence. has a wonderful story of female empowerment. I’m fine with any of those three.

Los Angeles eats, 2019.

The best meal I had on my brief vacation to Los Angeles was at Rosaliné, an upscale Peruvian restaurant that particularly focuses on ceviches and paellas, all of which were superb. The corvina sea bass was the milder of the two we ordered, so the flavor and freshness of the fish shone through, while the ceviche crocante, with raw (but cured) halibut and crispy calamari, tasted more of the sauce, with tart yuzu and a good but not overpowering amount of heat. I’m not a big paella fan, since I think every version I’d ever had in restaurants used cheap rice and was dominated either by tomato or saffron, but the chaufa paella here is excellent, served smoking hot in its cast-iron skillet and tossed table-side so the crispy part of the rice gets mixed in and slightly softened by the steam (so you can chew it without breaking a tooth). It comes with prawns, pancetta, and a little sausage, while their other paella is all shellfish; there isn’t a vegetarian option on the menu but I would imagine they could accommodate you with some notice. I also recommend the pan andino, a house-made bread with quinoa that is served with a rocoto pepper butter and a botoja olive spread that are both fantastic, savory and salty and perfect for spreading on warm bread. We were way too full for dessert.

I had lunch solo at the now curiously-named A.O.C., which predates the ascendance of Ben Shapiro’s favorite Congressperson. It’s a wine bar from Suzanne Goins and Carolyne Styne of Lucques and The Larder, with a small-plates menu that focuses on foods from around the Mediterranean as well as an extensive cheese list that lets you order just a single kind (which I did, trying a pacencia, a raw sheep’s milk cheese from Spain that was like a stronger, nuttier manchego, served with bread, dried fruit, and raw walnuts). For lunch I had the brussels sprouts, radicchio, and burrata sandwich on house-made focaccia, which was a delightful mess and did not skimp on the vegetables, with aged balsamic giving some sweet/tart notes to balance the slight bitterness of those two vegetables. I didn’t plan to have dessert but when I saw the butterscotch pôt de crème with fleur de sel & salted cashew cookies I couldn’t exactly say no – the cookies were good, although I think that’s the kind of cookie that needs to be consumed within a few hours of baking, while the custard was absolutely superb in texture and flavor, with that little bit of salt and big caramel and butter flavors.

Republique, like the first two restaurants I mentioned, made the Eater list of the 38 ‘most essential’ restaurants in LA for the year – I still don’t know what they mean by ‘essential’ but I do find those lists incredibly useful when traveling and rarely have a bad experience at any of their places. It’s modern French in a very cool brick building that was supposedly once owned by Charlie Chaplin, previously occupied by the Nancy Silverton-owned Campanile. Modern French probably misrepresents the food, though, as it’s more just modern global cuisine with French influences. I went with a writer friend and we grazed our way through some of the lighter dishes, skipping the meat/fish mains. The spinach cavatelli with fresh morel mushrooms was among the best pasta dishes I’ve ever had, both because the pasta was so well-made and perfectly cooked and because the morels were … well, morels, which are generally so expensive (they only grow wild, typically after forest fires, and are harvested by hand) that I rarely get to eat them. The grilled octopus salad with multiple kinds of citrus plus pistachios and a hint of chile was another standout, as was the bread with cultured butter and the smoked eel beignets (yep, just what it sounds like, and so good) with horseradish sauce. I normally don’t care for white chocolate desserts but their caramelized white chocolate sabayon with local berries was really superb – the cloying nature of regular white chocolate is dampened by the caramelization, which converts some of the sugars and brings out a broader array of flavors than the one-note sweetness of regular white chocolate.

I met up with movie critic Tim Grierson, with whom I’ve had a longrunning email dialogue but had never actually met in person, at The Henry in west Hollywood, where I had that rarest of things, a truly memorable salad, in a rather over-the-top (if on brand for that area) space. The green garden kale salad has romanesco and broccoli along with kale, brussels sprouts, green beans, snow peas, arugula, pistachios, and comes with a tahini vinaigrette that was lighter than most tahini dressings (like goddess dressing, which I do like quite a bit, but can be heavy).

Molly Knight and I had dinner at Badmaash, a favorite of hers, located on Fairfax a few doors down from Jon & Vinny’s. Badmaash has both traditional Indian dishes and some strange mashups like Chicken Tikka Poutine – fries topped with gravy and chicken tikka and cheese curds, good but definitely too heavy for me – and chili cheese naan, where the naan dough is wrapped around cheese and serranos and comes out like a stuffed pizza (but much better than that, obviously). The traditional samosa and rosemary naan were actually my favorite dishes, though, because they were so simple but well done, and since I seldom eat Indian food because there are so many things on Indian restaurant menus I can’t eat.

Stella Barra pizzeria is a solid 50 for me, which probably puts it in the lower tier of my pizzeria rankings since I tend to avoid places I hear are below-average; I thought their dough was quite good if stretched a little too thick, and don’t love that their white pizzas come with a ‘parmesan cream sauce,’ whatever that is – true white Neapolitan pizzas shouldn’t have anything like that. But the toppings on the two pizzas we tried, the sausage and fennel as well as the spinach & kale with garlic and green onions, were very high quality. I’m usually a purist when it comes to old-fashioneds, but their lavender-tinged version was surprisingly good.

I did all my coffee-ing at Verve and Andante, as well as tea in both spots as well; Verve was slightly better in both categories, especially for pour-over coffee, and they offer hojicha, my personal favorite green tea (the leaves are roasted, so the flavor is deeper and less grassy). Verve’s space was nearly always packed, while Andante had more room to chill, although one time I was in the latter’s shop near the Grove and realized I was the only person there not working on a screenplay.

Stick to baseball, 2/23/19.

Just one ESPN+ piece this week, looking at the Padres’ deal with Manny Machado. I held a Klawchat on Friday since my afternoon game in Texas was rained out.

I sent out the latest issue of my free email newsletter this week, complete with Obscure Music Reference as the subject. I nearly always tailor those song quotes to the subject of the email, although I think this week’s might have been a bit too obscure.

For the next five Mondays, High Street on Market, my #1 restaurant in Philadelphia, will host “sandwich battles” in the evenings, featuring area chefs and personalities in a competition to build the best sandwich using High Street’s phenomenal artisan breads and a mystery ingredient each week. Tickets are $25 apiece and you might see me in the crowd one night.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 2/22/19.

Keith Law: Feel like I’m floating in a warm sea. Klawchat.

Steve: sooo… Soroka is out with some shoulder issues already… time for me to completely panic on him?
Keith Law: Not panic, but concern, yes. I’ve voiced my issues with his delivery for a while now – I think his arm swing puts stress on his shoulder – and this is twice in two years that he’s come up sore.

J: Happy spring training! With his freedom for Baltimore, and the SSS success of the end of the year for Kevin Gausman, what are your thoughts heading into 2019? Optimistic at all? What does a good but reasonable year look like for him?
Keith Law: Optimistic, but his Atlanta run last year included some crazy luck on balls in play (even accounting for batted-ball quality). I think his K% will go up and he’ll have fewer of those disaster starts that marked so much of his time in Baltimore.

Zach: Do the Rockies actually think Desmond should start in center? This is just a sunk cost that they’re unwilling to admit, right? They have to understand how much a minus he’s been since he signed there.
Keith Law: Yes, this is my belief – they won’t just accept the cost is sunk, and are determined to play him.

Jon: As a Philly resident, I really enjoyed your restaurant list. Have you been to Parc yet? If so, what did you think?
Keith Law: Never been.

Anthony: Will Manuel Margot ever be a 100 wRC+ guy?
Keith Law: Yes.

J: In terms of Yordan Alvarez’s ranking, to what extent is falling outside the top-100 about DH-probably? And to what extent is it that the bat just doesn’t look as good as the numbers do?
Keith Law: Both. Body projects poorly long-term too.

Nick: Are the Phillies bidding against themselves for Harper?
Keith Law: Doubt that. But they are probably bidding against Machado’s contract.

J: Brendan Rodgers 2019 250 PA atAAA/250 PA in MLB?
Keith Law: Seems like a fair bet.

John S: In light of the record setting deal, what do you make of the Padres opening the books to claim poverty weeks before signing Machado? Not that we will ever know for sure, but… was it a negotiation ploy? Do you think that the backlash from fans and some media had any affect in the decision to sign MM?
Keith Law: Don’t think it was a ploy; I think they recognized that adding Machado would likely produce revenues & franchise value well in excess of what he’ll cost.

HH: Does Tristan McKenzie appear in the majors this year?
Keith Law: Unlikely but not impossible.

Charlie L.: Are you going to Spiel this year? I’ve been living in Germany for about 18 months now and think I should go, but mein Deutsch ist nicht gut so if you have any English-speaking advice it’d be grand.
Keith Law: Never been – it’s a bad time in the baseball schedule. I’ll do GenCon and PAX unplugged again.

J: Oneil Cruz is pretty fascinating. He feels like… 10% star, 70% bust/bench guy, 20% solid player. Off in any direction?
Keith Law: It’s hard to see him becoming just a solid player. Either he’s above-average or he’s nothing. He is fascinating, though.

Andres: Hey Klaw! As a Mets fan, what should I hope for when it comes to D. Smith and A. Rosario? You think the Mets finally let the youngsters just do their thing?
Keith Law: I think Rosario will get to just do his thing and Smith will get buried by Alonso and Davis.

James: Of all teams the freakin’ Padres invested $444 million on two players over the past two years, including the largest free agent contract in American sports history. I really don’t want to hear another front office say that they don’t have money to spend ever again.
Keith Law: Every team has money; they do not want to reduce their profits. I’ll give a pass to Tampa Bay and Oakland, who really do take in less revenue than the other clubs, but that’s all.

Mike: Keith, how often are you recognized by fans at non baseball related events and where is the strangest place a fan has approached you?
Keith Law: Happening a bit more lately, which is flattering. One of you spotted me on the rental car shuttle this morning.

Chris: Did you know Nick Cafardo at all? Any favorite stories about him?
Keith Law: I did – he was always very nice both to me and to others whenever I saw him.

Joe S: Baseball related question now: what are your opinions on the Vlad Guerrero Jr situation?
Keith Law: I’ve written about this many, many times. He belonged in the majors last summer.

Joshua: There is growing buzz for Julio Rodriguez on the Mariners, what have you heard amongst scouts? Anything noteworthy?
Keith Law: Growing buzz how? I did have him in my Mariners’ org report, but nothing’s new since then.

Darren: Which pitcher do you think has the greater upside, Brandon Woodruff or Joey Lucchesi?
Keith Law: Woodruff. Lucchesi is a back-end guy only. Woodruff could be mid-rotation/a little above league-average.

Ray: For Mike Soroka’s write up in the Top 100 you wrote “…even though he has that low slot and an arm swing that puts some stress on the shoulder.” Do you have any biomechanical data to back up that claim?
Keith Law: I have pointed out issues with deliveries for years – scouts have been evaluating pitchers’ mechanics since long before I was in the industry, probably since before I was born – and this is no different. I don’t use “biomechanical data,” whatever you might think that is, in these scouting reports.

Andrew: How nervous should I be about Soroka’s shoulder?
Keith Law: See above, but yeah, I’m concerned.

Marques: If you ran the Padres, would you pursue external pitching or wait for your system to come up at this point?
Keith Law: I’d pursue external pitching this summer and next winter. Let some of the A-ball prospects advance a little and they’ll have a bit more trade value.

Buckner 86: I looked back on 2017 & 2018 and never saw anything on Josh James in your Houston top 10. Can you give a little write up about him here? Thanks
Keith Law: He’s in this year’s top 100 and he’s in this piece from September that explains why he went from borderline non-prospect to potential mid-rotation starter.

John: Do you think steroids are still prevalent in baseball? And if so, how widespread would you guess usage to be?
Keith Law: I do not … except for international free agents. The testing results that I’ve heard indicate that many July 2nd prospects have at least tested positive for banned substances. The % depends on where you draw the line of ‘prospects’ but I have heard major names coming up positive in recent years.

Bobby C: I read that Harper has no offers for 300 mil. now. Surely he won’t sign for less than Machado?
Keith Law: Can’t imagine he would.
Keith Law: I think signing second is also the way to ‘win’ that particular competition.

Guest: Even aside from Harper/Kimbrel/Keuchel, are there way more free agents than normal dangling at this date?
Keith Law: I believe so but I haven’t actually counted/compared.

Tim: Should people feel dirty listening to Michael Jackson, R. Kelly, watching Polanski or Allen movies, etc? Is the solution to stop listening/watching?
Keith Law: Depends on your comfort level. I actually feel like Jackson’s is the easiest call, as he’s no longer alive to benefit from someone purchasing or listening to his music.

David: Do you think Eloy starts after spending 2 weeks in AAA?
Keith Law: Yes. He’s ready too.

Nick: Who did you come to see in Houston, and how did they look?
Keith Law: JJ Goss, who looked great, and Matt Thompson, who has to be hurt; his was in the mid-80s by the end of his outing. I haven’t had a ton of time to write this week up – and Bobby Witt’s doubleheader today got banged so I’m not sure I’ll see him.

Casey: When the Cardinals drafted Scott Hurst and Kramer Robertson with their first two picks in 2017 I don’t think anyone thought they’d be stars but would at least be useful bench players. Is that still the projection for them or are they non prospects at this point?
Keith Law: Hurst maybe – he was hurt a ton last year, and was too old for Peoria, but I don’t want to write him off just yet. Robertson is probably an NP.

Mark: How far out are we before we see the bulk of the Padres pitching prospects?
Keith Law: Paddack, Allen, Nix all see the majors this year. The best guys like Gore, Morejon, and Patino are 2021 and beyond. Well, Morejon could get there faster, but they’ve been cautious with him since he’s had some minor arm stuff.

JR: You see Aubrey Huff’s twitter fit after MM signed and people came after him based on one of his tweets? He specifically called you out as the “poster child of new era of pointless stat geeks” and said give him 25 guys with heart, grit and determination. How has no one handed him a GM job yet since he has it all figured out?
Keith Law: I saw. He wanted attention. Meh.

FA: What’s the last book you read ? And what non fiction and fiction books would you recommend? Thx
Keith Law: If you look below this post on the blog, you’ll see a review of the last non-fiction book I read. The last novel I read was Le Carre’s A Murder of Quality.

Ryan: Klaw, how reliable do you think the advanced defensive metrics are for past players?
Keith Law: Directionally correct. Doubt they’re all that precise without play-by-play data including ball location.

Ken: Would a good solution to the Guerrero situation be to end the separate service time calculations for the minors and MLB and replace it with something like 8 years of combined control between the two?
Keith Law: I love that idea in theory, although 1) owners would have a fit and 2) it would dramatically change how we draft and develop players. Those unintended consequences deserve more consideration.

JR: Twins got a steal with Marwin at 2/21MM right?
Keith Law: Yes. I view that contract as a sign that something’s amiss in the market.

David: Please help me understand. Jo Adell is a 6-3 / 215 super freak athlete with throws 97, has a 44-inch vert and led the nation in HRs. And a team like Philly drafts a slap hitting 4th OFer over him. Why don’t teams use the draft to take the best talent available and then trust their org to develop them? Has a team ever built a championship roster by drafting league average or below low upside starters in the Top 10?
Keith Law: Adell wasn’t very good before that spring, and then had some kind of arm issue too. The Phillies’ first-round woes are a separate issue, but I wouldn’t use Adell as your counterexample. I’m surprised the Phils haven’t overhauled their draft approach, though.

Pat: Mike Elias is essentially doing 2 jobs at the moment: GM of the Orioles, and Scouting Director of the Orioles. How long can that keep going? Seems like these are 2 separate 60+ hours a week jobs.
Keith Law: Devil’s advocate: If you were the Orioles’ GM, how much would you really need to watch the major-league club this spring? They don’t have many prospects near the majors, and they don’t have a lot of difficult roster decisions. Plus watching that team every day might drain Elias’ soul.

Jeff: So many Braves questions! Do think think Fried or Gohara is more likely to see more time as a starter this year?
Keith Law: Gohara but I like both quite a bit.

Guest: I got the board game Sagrada based on your positive review and have been enjoying it (thank you). Along with Azul, I like how it evokes an ancient creative art in an abstract way. What board game is the most aesthetically pleasing to you?
Keith Law: Takenoko and Tokaido, both by the same designer, are also gorgeous games. Everdell is too. Publishers are putting more effort into game art & design now.

Ttttt: Is Texas giving Lance Lynn 3/30 the worst free agent deal of the offseason? They could have gotten him for two years at a lower AAV, and he was awful last year.
Keith Law: It’s a bad deal compared to how the market went the rest of the winter, but I think he’ll deliver value commensurate with the contract.

Pat: Opposing batters in 2018 hit .302/.371/.574 against Dylan Bundy’s fastball, .360/.421/.733 against his changeup, and .419/.419./.645 against his curveball. However, they only hit .178/.216/.360 off his slider/cutter. Is he a candidate to go to the bullpen and essentially be a 1-pitch pony?
Keith Law: Cutter was his best pitch as an amateur too. I think he needs to relieve for bigger reasons than this, but your idea is pretty good.

Max G: Thoughts on Abraham Toro?
Keith Law: Maybe a bench guy.

Sam: I’m here for the baseball but seem to agree on your political views more consistently. Do you have any go-to sources you, um, go to?
Keith Law: I try to read a lot of sources but I will say I find british takes on US and world politics are often more informative – the BBC and the Guardian in particular.

Obscure music reference: Keithchat
Keith Law: This absolutely cracked me up.

Aaron Houston: KLAW, in regards to you being in Houston, how do you specifically get notified about certain highschoolers? Does someone literally say “KLAW, this kid is A GUY!!!”? Siphons are great and have a cool factor about them, but I agree they are expensive. Thanks.
Keith Law: Yes, I talk to scouts and they tell me who I need to see. Eric Longenhagen and I chatted earlier this week about guys we’d heard about too. He had a few names I didn’t have, and I think I had a couple he didn’t have.

Chris: Man the whatabouters/second chancers were out in force on your reaction to the Heyman/Reyes tweet, huh?
Keith Law: They were so quick to whatabout me they didn’t take five seconds to try the google.

Jon: Do you have any thoughts on Jason Ochart and DriveLine baseball working with the Phillies prospects? Is there anything to look for from Haseley or Moniak that would be a successful sign of a change in swing or approach?
Keith Law: Those guys are swing overhaul candidates, not minor changes. I’m not optimistic about either but that has nothing to do with Driveline or Ochart.

Don’t Stick to Baseball: Pretty sure we have similar age kids. I am picking up on a great deal of college prep advice and pressure directed at students these days as early as 6th grade. I find this unproductive and have been trying to guide my son to pursue his interests, work hard, and let that be enough, particularly as he’s still 2 years from high school, even). As someone that went to a prestigious university, what kind of advice are you giving youngsters these days?
Keith Law: That young? I don’t give them any advice. That’s way too young for that stuff.

Hesqo : Assuming he has another quality season and stays healthy, does Anthony Rendon crack 25 per year on a long term deal next offseason?
Keith Law: In theory, yes, but after this winter … who knows.

Rick Sanchez: It definitely stung to see my ChiSox whiff on Machado. With Jiminez, Cease, Kopech, Robert, Madrigal, etc. waiting in the wings, do you think we have enough to make the playoffs in 2020?
Keith Law: Yes, but I look at them more as a homegrown core that could use some outside help. Maybe they’ll feel more like spending if guys like Giolito or Moncada have big years in 2019.

Chris: Severino ext a good deal for Yanks, with the proviso pitchers are always a risk and maybe somewhat moreso for him given your concerns with his top heavy delivery?
Keith Law: If his second half was really about him tipping pitches – I am skeptical of such claims about 90% of the time – then yes.

Mike: I read this week that Loaisiga hired a trainer and worked on strengthening the smaller muscles in his shoulder. Spring optimism aside, why wouldn’t the Yankees get a guy like that a trainer, given the potential payout if he stays healthy?
Keith Law: Offseason work is too often considered the player’s responsibility, rather than the team’s.

Augustus : Are you a believer in superstition? Any wild stuff you’ve seen players do?
Keith Law: I am certainly not.

Joe: Did you ignore my question about why you didn’t think Andujar was a good fit for the Padres because you knew they would sign Machado?
Keith Law: I get hundreds more questions each week than I can answer. I don’t even know if I saw yours.

addoeh: I’m one day into my fortnightly three day bender.
Keith Law: Did she ever apologize for basically saying poor people are drunks who deserve to be poor?

Mike: Did the pitch clocks in MiLB make a noticeable difference in game times?
Keith Law: I will say they made games feel faster to me when I was in the stands.

Erik: Have you seen what Alex Bregman did today (he flew a 9 year old kid from Atlanta to Florida to hit BP with him). Great story and one MLB should be marketing the heck out of…
Keith Law: MLB should be marketing the heck out of Bregman, period. He’s the charismatic star they want Trout to be.

PD: How bad of an excuse is an imbalanced payroll for not signing free agents?
Keith Law: That’s a really bad one, especially since there’s no real evidence to support it – and the whole idea behind building from within was to get a cheap, homegrown core that you could afford to supplement with highly-paid free agents.

Bradley: upside of Greyson Jenista?
Keith Law: Unless he’s a way better hitter than I think he is, I don’t see a path to a regular.

PD: What’s your estimate of the current $ per WAR?
Keith Law: It will *always* vary by team. Always. The idea that you can just calculate a market $/WAR was wrong at a philosophical level.

Richard: Did you find anything good to eat in Houston?
Keith Law: Lunch at Himalaya, which was … not my favorite, but I recognize that may be the limitations of my palate. Dinner at Xochi which was fucking phenomenal.

Jeff B.: Probably crazy, but should the Rockies offer Bryce 31M/yr/10 years then challenge him to break the HR record before he turns 35?
Keith Law: Won’t happen but I do love the idea.

David: What do you make of Harper’s disaster defensive metrics last year? One-year blip or serious trend?
Keith Law: More blip. Mike Petriello did a great breakdown of that for mlb.com in the fall.

Ridley Kemp: Sorry I missed you in Austin. Did you get to try Loro or any other new-ish restaurant?
Keith Law: Better Half (get the waffled hash browns), Micklethwait Craft Meats, Backspace, Cane Rosso.

John: The sky is blue, the Pope is Catholic, and Keith Law doesn’t believe in superstition.
Keith Law: To be more accurate, the sky is blue, the Pope is Catholic, and superstitions aren’t real.

Sam: What is a good board game gift for a 10yo boy?
Keith Law: Has he ever played a ‘good’ board game? If not, Ticket to Ride. If yes, 7 Wonders.

Elton: “Kingdomino” is the other board game I’ve been enjoying with my family with help from your recommendation. It really hits the sweet spot of being strategic enough for my wife and I to enjoy, but simple enough for my seven year old to play (and even for my four year old with a little help).
Keith Law: It’s also fast to play, which I think is really important. Hardcore gamers disdain so-called gateway games – I actually blocked someone on Twitter once because he was being an asshole over my dislike of the length/complexity of the game Scythe – but there is a much bigger market for those than there is for complex games.

Jack: When you’re scouting high school senior pitchers, what’s the absolute maximum you can expect to see a guy gain on his fastball as he develops? I.e., is there any chance a guy that touches 88 will ever touch 98, or is the velocity ceiling close to being tapped at that point? Thanks!
Keith Law: Joel Zumaya did that. Strasburg did too.

Smrt Baseball: Like most of baseball, I am completely on board that OBP is more important than BA. OBP, of course, is somewhat dependent on the opposing pitcher’s control. If we assume that playoff teams have better pitchers with better control, is it possible that BA could be more important in the playoffs (at least compared to its importance in the regular season)? In other words, your ability to work a walk is somewhat mitigated by better pitchers in the playoffs.
Keith Law: A fair question but I do not know the answer. Are pitchers in October also throwing harder, since there are fewer low-stress pitches, so they have a higher chance of a swing and miss but also worse command?

John: Would you mind providing a little detail as to what the limitations of your palate are?
Keith Law: Oh, in this case I meant my unfamiliarity with south Asian cuisine in general, and the fact that I don’t eat beef or lamb. The waiter was somewhat adamant that I get the lunch special, which is the picture I posted on IG, but it had two things i don’t eat (I tasted them, but that’s it … eating too much of either will make me feel sick).

Jeff: Heading over to Surprise to watch Rutschman?
Keith Law: I’m in Fort Worth.

David: How serious are Verdugo’s makeup issues?
Keith Law: That depends on whom you ask. I have heard of his involvement in one issue serious enough to matter about four years ago.

SC: Does Machado accelerate or slow down Tatis’s timeline?
Keith Law: Neither.

Bill: Keep seeing you on guitar, not bad. Fan of Eddie Vedder?
Keith Law: I liked Pearl Jam’s first two albums quite a bit, tapered with Vitalogy, and was out by album four. I think their sound changed, which is absolutely their right as artists, but they went from something I really liked to something more influenced by the hard folk-rock of Neil Young and his spiritual descendants.

Jay: I was watching a Pirate game last summer and Huntington was a guest on the telecast and he would mention that he wasn’t a believer in having his top guys making so much more than other guys in the clubhouse or taking up more than X% of the payroll. Like it sowed some kind of clubhouse discord with the have and have nots and it was something he learned in his time in Cleveland. I mean, I get that winning cures most (all) clubhouse woes, but is there something to that? And yes, I understand at some level, that means bringing up the floor too so the disparity is not so large.
Keith Law: I don’t buy it. If the team wins, then the lesser-paid players get playoff shares, and perhaps can look forward to more earnings in the future.

Doug: How important is RH/LH balance within a lineup? I ask because depending on who is catching, Hosmer is the only LH hitter in the Padres projected lineup.
Keith Law: I only think this is real when a lineup is too left-handed, because it makes you vulnerable to LH relievers. Too right-handed shouldn’t matter much, or at least enough to make you want to specifically court LHB.

Illinois Paul: Is there value in a Matt Davidson being able to give you an inning or two on the mound in a blowout, or is that sort of two-way option much ado about nothing?
Keith Law: I think there would be value if he’s more than replacement level on the mound. Doesn’t have to be average, but somebody you could use in a game that’s still up for grabs.

Sam: You are in FW? You making any public appearances? I’m in Dallas
Keith Law: No public appearances, sorry. TCU tonight, Witt in the morning if he plays, then going home.

Pat D: If an AL team intends to keep 3 bench players and 8 relievers, what would they do with a proposed 26th roster spot? Another reliever, right?
Keith Law: Yes and I see that as a problem for pace of game and also for in-game strategy. I think you’d be better served with another bat anyway.

Pat: If you’re looking for a restaurant in Ft Worth, check out Ellerbe Fine Foods.
Keith Law: thanks but they open too late for me to hit them pregame

Ryan: Do you think Byron Buxton will bounce back this year or will he always be a disappointment offensively?
Keith Law: I’ve said this many, many times in the last year: He was hurt in 2018, and didn’t play much. He was good the last time he was healthy for an extended period.

Anthony: Did you follow any of the D1 opening weekend? If you did, anyone jump out?
Keith Law: No. If I’m at a game scouting, then of course I’m bearing down on players, but to watch what are often weak non-conference matchups doesn’t seem like a great use of my time. And my sister visited with her family so we were all quite busy.

Gregg R.: Please tell me the Mets are going to be good this year…pretty please? With a cherry on top?
Keith Law: I can’t tell you that. I can’t tell you they’ll be bad, either.

Alexander: I read that Bregman ranked 30th among 3rd basemen in defensive runs saved. Perhaps I’m mistaken, but I thought Bregman was an excellent defender. Is this random variance, a bad statistic, or a misinformed fan?
Keith Law: That is not accurate. Fangraphs shows 19 qualifiers at 3b last year. Bregman is 13th in UZR (-3.1) and 15th in DRS (-6). Miguel Andujar was the worst by a wide margin.

Derick: Hey Keith — thoughts on the redone episodes of Good Eats? Or just waiting for the new ones? Or just rewatching old ones?
Keith Law: I’ll watch them eventually but I almost never put my TV on at home any more.

Matt: Taking personal stuff out of it, as we probably both agree Cubs should’ve released him, where are you at with Addison Russell the player? Bat redeemable? Cubs need his D in middle IF?
Keith Law: Bat redeemable, Cubs don’t need him. If he can’t take responsibility for himself, I’m not sanguine that he’ll do what he has to do to improve as a player, either. And yes, fire him into the sun, I’m fine with that.

Chad: Do you think Max Muncy’s 2018 was a fluke or can he be a legitimate starting 1B going forward?
Keith Law: I expect regression but he’ll still be a regular.

gavin: could the Padres attach at top 100 prospect to dump Wil Myers?
Keith Law: Not sure that does it with teams so afraid of bad contracts. Irony – the Rays are one team that might consider it.

Sam: Any chance Nomar Mazara finally breaks out this year?
Keith Law: I thought he was breaking out last year, but got that one wrong.

Kevin : Who is somebody (non baseball) you would love to meet/have dinner?
Keith Law: People who are way outside of my field but do something of interest to me – a great novelist like Ann Patchett, who writes wonderful prose and crafts believable, compelling characters; or maybe a Jose Andres, who has shown dedication to helping his fellow man like few others with his fame and material success.

John: If it looks like the Phillies are about to land Harper, should that give a team like the Mets or any of the NL East contenders incentive to jump in? It would probably make you the team to beat in the East and seriously hurt the chances of one of your main competitors. I know there’s no chance the Wilpons would do it, but should they?
Keith Law: You would think, right? Or the Nats? If Harper signs with the Phils, they’re the preseason favorites. That doesn’t mean they’ll win, or even make the playoffs for sure, but there’s immediate value in being the favorites (you’ll sell a bunch of tickets and jerseys). And the Phils could use the boost of good news too.

MikeDP: Should the Rays continue to try to solve the stadium issue or just move? I just don’t see the area supporting the team enough even with a stadium in the city. The franchise seems to know how to win games in the highest payroll division.
Keith Law: That’s the one franchise I think needs to move to another metro area.

Rick: Can Soler return to the form he had early last season, before he went out for the year?
Keith Law: I will stubbornly say yes.
Keith Law: OK, time to find something to eat quickly before the Frogs’ game. I should have a draft blog post recapping my soggy week in Texas sometime this weekend, and then will be home next week to work on a draft top 30 (we postponed it a few days because my travel has been a mess). Thank you all, as always, for reading, and thanks for the lack of creepy weird questions this week. Have a safe and dry weekend.

Innovation and Its Enemies.

The late Calestous Juma died shortly after the publication of his last book, Innovation and Its Enemies: Why People Resist New Technologies, which may be why the book is still so little-known despite its obvious relevance to our fast-changing, tech-driven economy. Juma was a professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School with a longtime focus on international development, especially the application of new technology to developing countries and to boosting sustainable development. While the prose is a bit on the academic side, Juma uses very well-known technologies and even other inventions that you might not think of as ‘technologies’ but that still drove massive cultural and economic changes that led to substantial societal, religious, or political opposition.

Juma’s main thesis is that there will always be forces that oppose any new technology or invention that offers the potential for change, and he tries to categorize the reasons for and the types of opposition that any innovation might face. Some of the case studies he covers are ones you’d expect, like the printing press, refrigeration, and genetically modified crops, but he also covers less-expected ones like margarine and coffee. Margarine was invented in the mid-1800s and faced a torrent of opposition from dairy farmers, leading to the development of dairy associations that lobbied Congress and state legislatures for absurd laws that restrained or prohibited trade in butter alternatives, from requiring labeling designed to scare consumers to requiring the stuff to be dyed pink to make it less appetizing. To this day there are still regulations that overtly favor dairy butter that date from decades ago, although the discovery that the trans fats in traditional margarine are deleterious to heart health has made such laws anachronisms.

Coffee might be the most fascinating story in the book because it appeared and spread like a new technology, even though we don’t think of it as one. Coffee originated in east Africa, notably Ethiopia, and spread across the Red Sea to Yemen, from which it began to permeate Arab societies and faced its first wave of opposition from Muslim authorities who feared its stimulant effects (with some imams ruling it haram) and from secular authorities who feared the culture of coffeehouse would give rise to organized political groups. The same two forces applied when the drink spread to Europe, where it also faced a new group campaigning against its spread: producers of beer and wine, who feared the drink would replace theirs – in part because all three were safer than drinking well water at the time – and employed every trick they could find, including getting “doctors” (such as there were in the pre-science era) to claim that coffee was harmful to one’s health. While there are still some religious proscriptions on coffee, the drink’s spread was eventually helped by its own popularity and by the split among many authorities on its beneficence and value, with monarchs and even the Pope coming out in favor of the drink.

The two chapters that look at the ongoing controversy, most or all of it fabricated, over transgenic crops is probably the most directly relevant to our current political discourse, as genetically modified organisms are probably required if we’re going to feed the planet. Juma shows how GMOs suffered because regulatory authorities were consistently behind the technology and had to react to changes after they happened, and then often did so without sufficient guidance from technology experts. No example is more appalling than that of a genetically modified salmon called the AquAdvantage salmon that grows to maturity in about half the time required for wild salmon, and that thus has the potential to reduce overfishing while providing a reliable protein source that also has less impact on the environment than protein from mammals or poultry. The U.S. government was totally unprepared for the arrival of a genetically modified animal designed for human consumption, which also gave opponents, from Alaskan legislators (including Don Young, who openly promised to kill the company behind AquAdvantage) to fearmongering anti-GM advocates (look at the “Concerns” section on the Wikipedia entry for the fish), time to maneuver around it, blocking it through legislation and excessive regulatory obstacles.

Where Innovation and Its Enemies could have used more help was in how Juma organizes his conclusions. There are common themes across all of his examples, from the natural human fear (especially those of adults over age 30) of change to concerns over job loss to questions about environmental impact, but the choice to organize the book’s narrative around specific case studies means that the conclusions are dispersed throughout the book, and he doesn’t write enough to bring them together. A book like this one could be extremely valuable for policymakers looking to create an environment that encourages innovation and facilitates adoption of new technologies while providing sufficient regulatory structure to protect the public interest and foster trust. It has all of the information such a reader would need, but it’s scattered enough that a stronger concluding chapter would have gone a long way.

Next up: Mikael Niemi’s Popular Music from Vittula.

Euthanizer.

Continuing my trek through films submitted for this year’s Academy Award for Best Foreign Language Film, I watched the Finnish entry, the dark, disturbing film Euthanizer, which seems to start out as a revenge-fantasy story and ends up in an even bleaker place by the time the film wraps up. It’s also quite short, under 90 minutes, and the script sticks the landings on most of its gymnastics, although a film this tight probably needs a more limited thematic focus. It’s streaming free for amazon prime subscribers.

Veijo is the euthanizer of the film – he euthanizes pets as a side job, charging less than the local vet, but seems only willing to take on such cases if the pet is being mistreated or is otherwise ill, emphasizing that he only does this to end suffering, not, say, to help someone get rid of an unwanted pet. He lectures owners who bring their pets to him for how they’ve mistreated them – cooping up a cat in a tiny apartment, ignoring signs of illness in a dog, buying a guinea pig as a pet without getting it a companion. Veijo’s father is in the hospital in the late stages of some kind of terminal disease, in a good bit of pain, but Veijo’s caring for the suffering of others doesn’t extend to his father for reasons we’ll learn near the story’s end.

Veijo’s strange, solitary existence, punctuated by facial expressions worthy of late-career Harrison Ford, is interrupted by two visitors: the nurse who’s taking care of his father and hears him discussing his side gig, and a local thief who falls in with a white supremacist group and wants his dog put down strictly for reasons of convenience. The nurse is obsessed with death, and seduces Veijo, which leads to the most bizarre sex scene of the year, but she sees in him a fellow traveler without understanding the reasons why he euthanizes select animals but not others. The white supremacist, who looks way too much like the bassist/actor Flea, is about to lose his job at a mechanic’s for stealing tires, which he then resells to his racist buddies while trying to get into their ‘gang,’ and spends much of the film screaming at his wife on his phone or raging against nothing at all while sitting in his car. There’s a third subplot with the local vet, who appears to be more motivated by money than by any love of animals, that doesn’t work as well and serves mostly as a plot device to send Veijo off the rails for good. Veijo runs afoul of the white supremacists (not hard to do), which begins a back-and-forth revenge pattern that is satisfying at the start but ends in utterly gruesome fashion that throws the meaning of everything that came before into question.

There’s a clear point here about how we either treat animals far worse than we treat other people, as if they’re not even sentient, or how we treat animals better than other people, although Euthanizer doesn’t do enough in either direction. The film also doesn’t give us enough about Veijo until the very end of the movie to explain why he is the way he is – both why he euthanizes pets to prevent further suffering and why he’s isolated himself from just about everyone else, at least until the nurse pries her way into his life. There’s certainly satisfaction in watching him dress down people who have abused or neglected their pets, and there’s even more in watching him go after the white supremacists – who are amusingly stupid and, fortunately, never do anything racist on screen in the movie, instead just talking about how tough they are – but the final scene falls short as an explanation of everything.

At Eternity’s Gate.

Willem Dafoe earned a nomination for the Academy Award for Best Actor this year for his turn as Vincent Van Gogh in the sort-of-biopic At Eternity’s Gate, which is a beautiful but sort of dreadful film that doesn’t give the viewer much of a sense of who Van Gogh was, while advancing a somewhat questionable hypothesis about his death. Dafoe is excellent, as he nearly always he is, but I have no idea what this movie was trying to accomplish.

Van Gogh was one of the most important painters in the western canon and an important bridge from impressionism to post-impressionism, a prolific painter during a short period of his life who struggled to make any money from his art while alive – we know of one painting he sold during his life, although there may have been others that were not recorded – but became immensely influential in death and whose paintings now sell for millions of dollars. At Eternity’s Gate has some wonderful sequences where we see Van Gogh at work, both in how the film reconstructs his painting or sketching – I have to assume someone stood in for Dafoe in these scenes, although the editing is seamless – and in how Dafoe depicts an artist in the flow state, oblivious to many things around him, including the discomfort of many of his subjects.

That’s about the end of what’s good in At Eternity’s Gate, which takes its title from one of the colloquial names of the painting most commonly known as Sorrowing Old Man, as the rest of the film is muddled in story and in technique. There are some positively bizarre, disorienting camera angles, often at 90 degrees to the ground, or POV shots of Van Gogh’s feet as he walks through a sunflower field, that only make the film harder to watch without adding any value. The film makes frequent use of extreme close-ups, to no apparent benefit. There are a lot of shots of Van Gogh running through fields – so while the landscape scenes are gorgeous, it’s often unclear what the purpose is. Even when there is a purpose here, such as showing Van Gogh’s confusion in tangible terms through camerawork and layered, hollow audio tracks, it also has the side effect of making the movie harder to watch.

And ultimately the film doesn’t tell us anything about Van Gogh that we didn’t already know, which is probably the greatest disappointment of all. The generally accepted cause of Van Gogh’s death is suicide by gun, but the script pushes the alternative and unlikely hypothesis that he was killed by some local boys in an accident, which feels like revising history and whitewashes Van Gogh’s history of mental illness (itself the subject of ongoing debate). Oscar Isaac appears as Paul Gauguin, another post-Impressionist artist who was similarly underappreciated during his lifetime, and the film depicts their troubled friendship, where Van Gogh appears to adore Gauguin. He does indeed eventually cut off his own ear in some sort of gesture towards his friend, although that story, which also should be part of the bigger picture of Van Gogh’s mental infirmity, also becomes muddled in the retelling here. Isaac is also generally quite good, but he does a bit of Poe Dameron here and overacts a modest part, with points added back on for his Parisian accent.

There’s no reason to watch At Eternity’s Gate unless you’re an Oscars completist; I don’t think this film does Van Gogh justice or tells us anything new about the man, his life, or his works. Dafoe is great – I thought he should have won the Best Supporting Actor award last year for The Florida Project – but even a top-tier actor can only do so much with inferior material.