I have a new draft blog post up, on Carter Stewart and Matt Allan, as well as a Grapefruit League scouting roundup, both for ESPN+ subscribers. My latest board game review for Paste covers Tiny Towns, a pattern-matching game with a clever twist that makes the game harder but faster.

Keith Law: You expose the film in me. Klawchat.

addoeh: Belated Pi Day greetings. What kind of hot fruit did you enjoy last night?
Keith Law: No hot fruit here, but we did have pizza.

SeanE: Legal issues aside, should the Pirates just put Kang at SS and live with the below average defense and (likely) above average offense?
Keith Law: Probably better to plug him in at 3b; don’t think he’d be even a 45 defender at short now given his age and injuries. (I wouldn’t roster him at all, though, because of his off-field issues.)

John: Hi Keith – big fan of your analysis. With it very unlikely Kimbrel is going to land a long term “Chapman-like” deal, would it behoove him to take a 1-year deal and hope the market improves next off season or take the longest term, most lucrative deal offered knowing that it might be his last big contract now heading north of 30 years old?
Keith Law: I’ve been sympathetic towards the players as a whole this offseason since I think it’s clear the owners are banking profits, but Kimbrel and his agent could not have misread the market any worse. He came off a down year by his own standards, was awful the last time we all saw him, and then asked for a contract that would have been the longest ever given to a reliever. Teams in that market spent their money elsewhere. If someone offers him two years now he should take it. Just maximize short-term earnings, knowing the long-term is always volatile for you as a pure reliever (with control questions now), and that the market’s future is very hard to predict.

Aaron C.: As someone who’s been in the industry, do you have any general insight as to how players *really* feel about these international games? Players always *say* they love it publicly, but I’ve always had a hard time believing these creatures of habit like their routines uprooted to play in Japan, England, etc.
Keith Law: I don’t think they like it from that standpoint – it’s exhausting to change time zones to that extent. But I do think they like the cultural aspect. Players are still people so I’m sure some love it because the latter is more important than the former. I happen to enjoy international travel – granted, I don’t have to roll off the plane on to the mound – so I view the physical toll as a cost I’m willing to bear to go experience another culture.

Jeff: So I’m at the Giants/A’s game in Scottsdale last week, and when Bumgarner was pitching, they had the radar gun off. It was on for all A’s, and for other Giants. Is this a team decision? a Bumgarner decision? A little bit of both. He didn’t look great, just wanted to see if this is common practice, since I have never seen it before.
Keith Law: Probably the team’s decision but I don’t know.

JR: Were you “on” the sailing team or crew team at Harvard?
Keith Law: I was not, although oddly enough, they invited me to try out as a coxswain simply because of my weight and size. (I had no interest.)

Rod: Do you see a 40-HR season for Acuña?
Keith Law: I do not.

Scott Upham: Does Kyle Tucker have anything to prove in AAA? Looks like he is ready for prime time to me.
Keith Law: I agree.

parlay: Austin Hays is having a strong spring for the Orioles- hitting to all fields again, and several XBH. Should we toss out 2018 because of the injuries and jump back on his 2017 hype train?
Keith Law: Don’t toss 2018 out entirely, but consider weighting it less than you would for most players. He was a back-end top 100 guy after 2017, and i think if you project average regular for him you’ll be in a good spot.

Jim: What are you thoughts on the rules changes MLB is tinkering with? If you’ve written that up, apologies in advance and shoot me a link 🙂
Keith Law: There were a lot, so maybe ask me about specific ones if you’re curious. The one that I liked the most was capping commercial breaks in between innings; now get rid of commercial breaks for pitching changes and we’re really cooking. I’m also glad we’re not seeing a pitch clock, and dismayed that MLB is pushing the 3-batter minimum rule through without the union’s consent.

Jscott022: Of the young pitchers who have a chance to crack the braves opening day rotation (Wright, Touki, Wilson, Fried) which two would you take to follow Newcomb, Gaussman, and Teheran?
Keith Law: I’d put Wilson, Touki, and Fried in the rotation and bounce Teheran.

JR: Which team surprises the most this year and is way better than preseason projections?
Keith Law: I’ll do a predictions column in two weeks.

Mark: What happens if teams wont let their pitchers throw from 2 feet back citing injury concerns? Obviously, the league can just say throw like its a normal distance, but I feel like this wasn’t thought out very well.
Keith Law: I think that rule change is 100% likely to cause injuries.
Keith Law: Like, just don’t. It’s a stupid idea. I’d rather they lower the mound if anything.

James: New pizza/pasta place called Fellow in old town Scottsdale area (Giants) might be worth checking out
Keith Law: Thank you, it’s on my to-do list because the menu was designed by Claudio Urcioli (Pa’ La, ex-Noble Eatery).

Josh: Standard small sample/spring training caveats aside, I’m in a mad scramble to buy back my Austin Hays stock. Super impressed with his bat speed and defensive range. What say you?
Keith Law: Defensive range? No.

Jack: Is Luzardo ready to be a major-leaguer right now?
Keith Law: In what role? To simply be on a major league staff, yes. To be a league-average starter, I’d say less than a 50% chance of that right this minute.

Scott Upham: As a Detroit Tigers fan, it seems like Christian Stewart and Daz Cameron will contribute in 2019 but do they have any budding superstar position players in their entire system?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Joel: Keith, I finally was able to watch the movie Detroit. It was unbelievably hard to watch, although I thought it was outstanding. Your thoughts?
Keith Law: Never saw/not interested based on reviews.

Julian: Hunter Barco a top 20 pick with improved strength and arm angle?
Keith Law: Not impossible but I think unlikely.

John: Have you seen/heard of any improvement in Chris Paddacks curveball?
Keith Law: No. I don’t think it will ever improve in a significant way.

Dale: So AZ spring training is far far superior to FL spring training. Baseball, weather, food, girls, driving distance to all the parks. Wouldn’t you agree ?
Keith Law: Yes. I like how you slipped “girls” in there as if that’s a major criterion, by the way. But weather, food, proximity, access to non-baseball culture are all there.

Jim: Mostly i was concerned about the 3 batter min… seems like using an AX for a scalpel problem
Keith Law: I would agree. Why not a two-batter minimum?

Thomas: Would you have the same career right now if you had gone to Arizona State instead of Harvard?
Keith Law: It seems unlikely. There is no doubt that having the two schools I attended on my resume has helped me in my professional life and career. That’s why this scandal is a big deal, IMO.

Dale: So a guy on the Royals is starting opening day that I’ve never heard of. Their weak division might be the o my thing to save them from being all time bad.
Keith Law: I think it’s amazing that a rule 5 pick (you’re talking about Brad Keller, I assume) is their Opening Day starter in his second year. I don’t think he’s as good as his 2018 ERA implies, but that’s a solid find in the usually barren rule 5 draft.

Will: With the new 3-batter rule, will teams now consider grooming some would-be starter prospects into middle inning guys?
Keith Law: That’s already happening. More likely that potential LHR in the draft get hurt, unless they show a weapon for RHB.

Julian: When will your next draft projection be?
Keith Law: If you mean a ranking, like the one I just did, probably in mid-April. I won’t project the first round until May because I have always maintained that anything before that cannot be sufficiently sourced.

Steve: General scouting question for you — can seeing a player in one game dramatically change your opinion of them? Say you came in thinking someone had 40 power but then you see them in their first game of the season hit a dinger 425 feet. Does that happen often where what you thought you were going to see one thing and it’s a totally different player?
Keith Law: Sort of? But maybe not for power. Velocity comes to mind, or even just seeing a pitch I didn’t think a guy had before.
Keith Law: Or just seeing that someone’s body is really different.

Thomas: Hypothetically speaking, if you have an OF with three all-stars and then a young stud in waiting like Eloy, couldn’t you just keep him on the 40 man for years until the stars aren’t as good? Thinking the old FL outfield with Stanton, Yelich and Ozuna, there wouldn’t have been any room for an Eloy.
Keith Law: I think the player would have a grievance after some extended period in AAA where, presumably, he’s demolishing the league.

Jim: Do you see the Yankees grabbing another SP with the latest Severino news?
Keith Law: I would absolutely support them signing Gio.
Keith Law: Will they? I don’t know. But I think he fits.

Justin: Can Dakota Hudson eventually be a league average starter? Or do you think he is bullpen bound? Sounds like STL prefers him over Gant for the 5th starter role.
Keith Law: Pen guy for me. Limited history of staying healthy, very reliant on that cutter.

Dale: Did you see Jeters comments saying paraphrase: “many Fans come to the game and leave the stadium not even knowing or remembering who won”
Keith Law: I did. That’s probably true for me, but I don’t attend games as a fan.

PhillyJake: Cole Tucker arrival in the majors?
Keith Law: Could debut this year but I don’t see impact.

Gus: Hello KLaw, The one new rule that I don’t understand the most from either management or the union side is why limit rosters after September 1? Isn’t it the best interest of the clubs to give as many minor league players possible exposure to the MLB environment?
Keith Law: They haven’t been calling up many guys for years now. I would have liked a limit a bit higher, maybe 30-32, but nobody was calling up the entire 40-man roster like they did in the 1980s. Too much expense and particularly risk if the player came up and got hurt in September or in major-league camp the following March.

Scott C: Donaldson was a worthwhile move, but could you have imagined a worse offseason for the Braves? What are they doing?
Keith Law: Standing pat and betting on internal improvements. Not a terrible strategy, but I think there was some low-hanging fruit in free agency they could have chased.

Scott Upham: Tampa’s injury recovering Jose DeLeon was once one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. What is the best outcome for him now?
Keith Law: He was a solid prospect, not one of the tops; I think there’s league-average starter potential, but it will depend on how his fastball plays. There was some concern it was a little light for him as a starter.

section 34: Which pitchers historically would have been hurt the most by the 3-batter rule? Jesse Orosco came to mind immediately but he could pitch to righties until the very end.
Keith Law: Tony Fossas.

Mac: How much does Vaughn have to hit to justify being picked ahead of Witt Jr or Abrams? Does he have to be the best hitting 1B in baseball for 5+ years?
Keith Law: There’s an implicit assumption there about Witt Jr/Abrams that I’m not sure we entirely agree on, but you omit the other benefit Vaughn might offer: proximity. He’s in the majors in 12-18 months. Maybe sooner if he’s really this good right now. (I’ll see him in a week.) A win today is worth more than a win in five years to contending clubs – and, I believe, in the trade market.

Pat D: I’m trying to eat better and lose weight. I need to broaden my horizons in terms of what I eat, and therefore need to learn to cook better. Are there any dishes you can recommend that are either way
Keith Law: Center your meals on the plants, not the proteins. I think the American diet has always started with the question of what meat we were cooking, and then what sides go with that (steak, therefore potatoes and something green). Instead, start with vegetable dishes and work ‘inward.’ Ottolenghi’s Simple and Hugh Acheson’s The Broad Fork are great vegetable (but not strictly vegetarian) cookbooks.

Mark: Have you heard anything on Corbin Carroll this year yet?
Keith Law: He was in my draft ranking two weeks ago.

Bob Pollard: Saw data in a couple of tweets yesterday that one-batter pitcher appearances are declining. If that’s the case, then why get rid of them?
Keith Law: Eyewash.

JD: I know he’s only 24, but after three identical years do we know what Nomar Mazara has? Or do you still think there’s more to come?
Keith Law: There is more potential there. The probability of him getting to it has declined, but it is still there. A few of my breakout candidates from 2018 didn’t break out but I would double down on them, including him and Giolito, for 2019.

Brendan: Hey Keith, have you read Field of Dreams? I just found out the film was based on a book and was curious if it’s worth picking up. Thanks!
Keith Law: I haven’t. I don’t read much baseball stuff – reading is a hobby and a sort of meditation for me, so I want something different.

Jim: Do you attend a regular boardgaming group? Any games that work well on the road for you? (solo or otherwise). I travel a bit for work and carry a few sometimes.
Keith Law: I co-host a family game night at my local library, and I’ve played with some readers in the area a few times, and joined Bill Baer (NBC Sports, and a total pinko commie)’s game group a couple of times too. (That’s the only time I’ve played 7 Wonders with 7 people. Still great, but so different from the 3-5 player experience.) I often bring One Night Ultimate Werewolf on trips because it’s portable and quick. Jaipur is a great, portable two-player game. The Mind is always in my scouting bag these days to.

steve: I would think that service time issues would be less important for a pitcher. Do teams reflect that when the consider young pitchers in big leagues
Keith Law: A reader mentioned this around Paddack yesterday and I disagreed with him, saying I didn’t think manipulating a pitcher’s service time (especially one with a TJ already on his dossier) was worth doing because nobody can reasonably project a pitcher’s performance and health seven years out. That is just being too clever by half. There is a reason not to promote a pitcher too soon, which is that he might get hurt, as Michael Kopech did, and cost you a year of service and salary. (I say that having argued for Kopech’s promotion last summer. It didn’t work out.)

Steve: Wander Franco or Willie Adames more likely to move to 3B eventually?
Keith Law: Adames for me.

Mac: I know you said you only scout the top of the draft but when you’re at an amateur game do you only bear down on the guy you’re there to see or do you watch other guys who may be later round picks?
Keith Law: If they’re notable. I mentioned a 2020 guy in my draft post this week because he played against Matt Allan.

JD: I’ve always suspected that Manfred’s pace-of-play push is motivated less by a belief that fans care, and more because shorter games are more profitable for business reasons (concentrating ad revenue opportunities, higher carriage fees because it doesn’t crowd out other programming, who knows). Is that an unfair suspicion? If not, what’s the mechanism that actually makes shorter games more profitable?
Keith Law: I have had this suspicion too – would shrinking ad inventory mean higher prices for the inventory that remains? Does viewership decline with game length beyond some threshold? I lack the data to evaluate those suspicions though.

TP: Any good reasons why Texas wouldn’t just let Willie Calhoun play everyday?
Keith Law: Where?

John: I know you’ve answered the question a 1000 times about working in MLB and your reasons re: family, flexibility etc. are obviously very important and reasonable.

Are there times when you’re evaluating prospects though and feel like this isn’t for real? That you’re scouting but not getting any action from your work product?
Keith Law: I may not quite follow the question, but the ‘action’ i get is from you guys. You read, and you pay to read. What more could I possibly ask for? There’s no gratification for a writer like knowing your work is read and valued.

Tommy Fresh: with all the new All Star festivities this year with the election and stuff – will MLB bring in Entertainment 720 to run the show
Keith Law: Pawnee to Cleveland isn’t too bad of a drive.

Ed: If Elvis Luciano pitches like hot garbage this year, is it still worth keeping him on the Jays roster for future potential? What is 1 spot on the 25-man roster worth to a non-playoff bound team?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s worth doing. Not only is it a dead roster spot, now he doesn’t develop, and he makes more money next year, and there’s the risk he blows out and gets all that salary and service time, and stays on your 40-man, and so on.

Del : Where do you see Dom Smith’s in May: Mets 1st Base, AAA, another team?
Keith Law: Mets 1b.

Rod: Sean Newcomb ever gonna get the walks under control?
Keith Law: I have asked the question of “how” for a while now and I don’t have or hear a good answer.

addoeh: From your last newsletter (insert link to sign-up here), you talked about teams quickly sending up very young players to advanced levels to trick other teams models. Are there teams that will exclusively pick HS seniors and JuCo freshman late in draft to fill-out rosters instead of college seniors to get more opportunities?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard any of that, probably because the HS seniors would ask for more money to sign.

Layne: Recently bought Patchwork after reading your review. Great game. Any 2-player games coming up later this year that you’re eagerly anticipating?
Keith Law: Not off the top of my head but I am always listening. I have Wingspan (1-4 players) here to review, and Solenia (I think also 1-4). I know Corinth, an Yspahan reimplementation as a roll-and-write game, is coming soon, and the original had a solid 2-player variant. But nothing strictly two-player that I’ve heard about just yet.

Scott Upham: Bo Bichette is showing off all his tools in spring training. Other than service time, is there any reason he shouldn’t be the Jays starting SS on Opening Day?
Keith Law: He’s not a good shortstop.

Tim: Any thoughts on Anderson Espinoza return from TJ?
Keith Law: No. Haven’t seen him. Minor league games start today for all 30 clubs, I believe.

JD: I’ve found Splendor to be a great portable game — the whole thing fits in a quart plastic bag, and can be taught in two minutes.
Keith Law: Yes, very good call. Also plays well with two. Carcassonne is also very portable.

Bob Pollard: Sorry, I don’t understand the eyewash comment. Are you saying the data is wrong or MLB is trying to fix a problem that doesn’t exist? Or neither?
Keith Law: Eyewash refers to a solution without a problem, or something you do for perceived value rather than actual value.

Paul Dolan: Do you believe me when I say my team is losing money every year and has lost a lot in the last few years?
Keith Law: I don’t, and even so, your franchise value is appreciating, but that’s not reflected on the income or cash flow statements that you don’t issue to the public.

Geoff: Do you know anything about Trejyn Fletcher who’s now gonna be draft eligible this year as opposed to 2020?
Keith Law: He’s not draft eligible this year, not yet at least. It is possible he will be. He’s a prospect with some questions about the hit tool and a strong commitment to vanderbilt.

Tom: Any thoughts on Ketel Marte playing CF?
Keith Law: If it’s him or Adam Jones, I’ll try Marte. Good athlete, but experience helps in CF.

Tom: Is there any chance that Mountcastle can play a decent 2B, since the issue seems to be his arm, or is he a 1B / COF only?
Keith Law: Cannot see that body and build in the middle of the field.

Confused: This week while visiting my in-laws, my father-in-law–who is a great dad to my wife and grandfather to my child–called Aladdin Jasmine’s “Towelhead” boyfriend. He was quickly reprimanded by his wife, but doesn’t change the fact it happened. How do I reconcile these two polar opposites? It’s extremely troubling, especially as my daughter gets older and Fox News is constantly on the TV…
Keith Law: Harder since it’s not your dad, but consider talking to him about watching his tongue in front of your child. I have had a somewhat similar issue and asked someone to refrain from saying certain things in front of my daughter. It was an uncomfortable conversation but it resolved the issue.

Mike: Amed Rosario look primed for a breakout?
Keith Law: I would like to say yes, but i think he’s still putting the ball on the ground too much.

Lyle: Mariners starting catcher in 2022: 1) Omar Narvaez, 2) Cal Raleigh, 3) Not in system.
Keith Law: Mostly likely 3 but Raleigh is good.

ffballmaster: Have you ever “discovered” a guy? Like went to look at one player scouts told you to look out for and then found another you put on the scouts’ radar?
Keith Law: No, because I don’t go see amateur players unless scouts have already directed me there.

Beetlejuice: Is the service time issue only relevant to players players with a clear path to Major League ABs? Seems easy to imagine a scenario where a player is blocked by an incumbent, held down in AAA so he can get regular ABs, but it’s still unfair to the player from a $$ standpoint because he’s ready to contribute at the major league level. A fix for this problem should be factored into next CBA too, no?
Keith Law: Not sure how you’d fix that, unfortunately. A player who’s blocked by a legitimate major league option is temporarily out of luck.

Ethan: Did you read the story I sent you on Twitter this morning regarding the shootings? I appreciated the like, but just wondering if you actually read it.
Keith Law: Of course, I don’t hit Like if I don’t read and like the story attached.

Mike: Is Logan Davidson a top 10 pick?
Keith Law: Today, absolutely not.

Nick: You see Austin Hays 440 foot shot to dead center?! Think he starts the year in Baltimore?
Keith Law: Gabe Gross led spring training with 8 homers one year.

Bruce: In all fairness, you can’t pay players in Franchise Value, much like you can’t pay athletes in tuition credits.
Keith Law: No, but you can borrow against it, or sell equity, if you’re actually that strapped for cash.

finny: What are the chances at this point that Dane Dunning actually doesn’t have to have TJ surgery? He was hurt last fall, he’s hurt again, and he’s visiting Dr. James Andrews. Isn’t TJ just an inevitability?
Keith Law: I’d like to be wrong but it feels like it.

MJ: Do you think Bryse Wilson can make the opening day rotation, and if so what kind of season do you project for him?
Keith Law: Too many guys ahead of him but I think he could do it. Slider looked better when I saw him Tuesday and he fills the zone.

Brandon J: Aside from taking three years off his age, what does Tony Gonsolin need to do this year to reach or surpass the lofty standing of his fellow Dodgers’ prospect Dustin May
Keith Law: He’s not catching May for potential. He’s plenty good on his own, though. Three legitimately above-average pitches. Good athlete. Heck of a pick by the Dodgers.

Andie: Is tanking for higher draft picks as big of a concern in MLB as it is in the NBA? Are there discussions / conversations about how to minimize / eradicate it?
Keith Law: Less of a concern specifically – as in, teams do not tank specifically for higher draft (and international) position. It’s more like a fringe benefit to deciding you’re not going to spend money to chase after your 71st win. Part of that philosophy was to play your own prospects or hunt for value on waivers/minor league free agents, but not every non-competitive team is doing that second part, and then you get tanking.
Keith Law: Also, I’m good with changing the top of the draft to eliminate any incentive to lose more games. The only reason the team with the worst record picks first is because we’ve always done it that way.

Jordan: Starting to go through your top 100 novels list, will there be an update sometime? Thanks!
Keith Law: I would really like to – it’s on the list of things I’d like to do on the dish. I did get the Philly restaurants list posted, so that was an accomplishment.

Hank: Jesse Winker. Can he add some power to his elite on-base skills?
Keith Law: I think that park helps him more than it will most players.

Nick: Any idea who has registered the highest exit velocity since it’s been tracked?
Keith Law: Judge, right?

KC: What can a healthy Jorge Soler still be for the Royals?
Keith Law: Above-average regular in RF.

Mick: Are you surprised how well Tulo is playing short? Looks like he’s locked in to start there with the Yanks.
Keith Law: It’s spring training. Nothing surprises me, and almost none of it matters.

Ryan V.: Have you had a chance to play Root’s Riverfolk expansion yet? I just saw that Leder Games has a second expansion in the works, but have not yet managed to try out Riverfolk, and am curious to know how the expansions affect the game’s experience…
Keith Law: I haven’t – I rarely play expansions since I’m always trying new games.

Kevin : Weird question…my mom (who is 69) and I are aligned politically (both despise republicans). However, she is very religious…me not so much. The other day her church had a speaker in about evolution vs creationism etc. This guy was going through the earth is only 18,000 years old routine. Mom and I had an argument about it (I even gave her bill nyes book)…how would you handle this?
Keith Law: Nice. I might try sources who try to reconcile or at least don’t try to divide science and faith – really, I think most religious people accept that the earth is 4 billion years old. Young Earth Creationists are dumb, but they’re also a minority.

Kevin : Are you going to arod/jlo wedding?
Keith Law: I assume my invitation is in the mail.

Mike: If you were a GM, would you want your player impeding in the HR derby’s? A lot of money for the player if they win, but seems to mess up swings.
Keith Law: It doesn’t mess up swings – that’s a myth. Let the kids play.

Tom C: Brendan: the book for Field of Dreams is called “Shoeless Joe”. It’s a worthwhile read, but it’s also pretty different than the movie.
Keith Law: Thanks.

Michael Conforto: The Mets should absolutely upgrade from Vargas to Keuchel right?
Keith Law: Yes but they won’t.

Ryan: Do you have any ideas what players the Dbacks are targeting in the draft? If its too early for that, what do you think their strategy should be? Thank you!
Keith Law: Too early. Take the best players available, which may entail moving a little money around to grab some first-rounders who fall, since the Dbacks have several extra picks.

DF: Re. the Reds. If they are out of it in July, do you see a chance to recoup similar value to what they gave up with Puig, Wood, etc.?
Keith Law: Zero chance.

mike sixel: Could use a top 100 movies list……
Keith Law: Someone asked that in the comments recently … I feel like I have too many gaps in my own movie-watching history that I couldn’t do a credible list.

Uli Jon: Started “Lincoln in the Bardo”. I like experimental but almost gave up on it. Now I’m all in and I think it might be genius. Thanks for the recommendation.
Keith Law: Similar reaction – at the start I thought it might be a gimmick, but it’s brilliant.

Ron: Hi Keith-did you check out, Kiriloff, Lewis or Javier at all? Any chance to?
Keith Law: I linked to my ST notes above. I did not go to the west side of Florida at all.

Scott: Have you seen/read Girl on a Train and if so what were your impressions?
Keith Law: No. Not sure I’ve heard of that.

Andy: Who does taking away the August waiver trading period help? Like, who was pushing for that? I would think that some players, especially those nearing the end of contracts, would WANT to go to playoff teams. GMs want to turn their Gios into an A ball reliever with a small chance. Owners want to save small amounts of money if their season isn’t going well. Why was that one of the changes that one side wanted?
Keith Law: I’m not sure but I wondered if players disliked the disruption to their own lives of late-season trades.

Jake Lawson: So…Wil Myers in center and Mike Moustakas at second. Are either of them likely to be even passable at these positions?
Keith Law: Moustakas probably not. Myers hell no.

Todd: In all seriousness, how much is Fox News to blame for our current mess?
Keith Law: A lot. More than people wish to acknowledge. Maybe it’s time to ask establishments you frequent that have televisions going all the time to turn it off.

Rick Sanchez: When do you think Hiura hits the majors?
Keith Law: July.

Adam: Love the chats Keith, thanks for taking the time to do them. With Sano’s latest injury, it’s hard for this Twins fan to see any reason that he’ll be successful consistently long term. Do you think he’ll ever put it together?
Keith Law: For stretches, at least. Lot of hitting ability and raw power, with an idea at the plate.

Imre: Just wanted to pop in and proudly say we got out 4 year old daughter her latest round of vaccinations yesterday!
Keith Law: Excellent news. Most of us are sane. If we convince another tiny sliver of the population to join us in vaccinating our kids, many or most of these outbreaks will stop.

Kevin : I asked my employer to stop playing Michael Jackson on the intercom…small step but hopefully more follow suit.
Keith Law: I’m actually surprised that more outlets haven’t just quietly shelved his music.

SeanE: Would you say the same about CNN? They clearly have bias the other way. Not sure there is objective media anymore….at least in national politics.
Keith Law: AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH oh that is fucking hilarious.

Todd: The democratic nominee in 2020 is…….?
Keith Law: Dunno but I’m voting for them.

Tom: How would you resolve service time manipulation?
Keith Law: You can’t, right? You can make it harder, and you can make it less lucrative/valuable, but you can never truly stop it.
Keith Law: Paying minor leaguers more would help. I’ve seen proposals for tying free agency to total time in pro ball, minors + majors, and for tying it to age. Each proposal has benefits over the status quo and will also disadvantage certain players.

Geoff: Gritty 2020?
Keith Law: Oh hell yes.

Johnny Lecherous: Happy Friday, KLaw. Last week someone asked if 2007 #5 overall draft pick Matt Wieters was a bust. Checking the 50 top 5 picks in the decade from 1997-2006, the average career total was 15-16 WAR — compared to just under 20 for Wieters. (That’s Baseball-Reference WAR, for what it’s worth.) So that very cursory study would claim that Wieters was more or less a typical outcome. Sadly.
Keith Law: But he wasn’t a typical #5 pick. He was #1 or #2 in the draft – I had him at 1, I think BA had him at 2 (They were right) – on most boards. I certainly never heard anyone tell me at the time that he was flawed. He slipped to 5 because teams 2-4 didn’t want to meet his bonus demands.

SeanE: So CNN is right down the middle. You have been spending too much time on the beach in Arizona….oh wait….
Keith Law: Strawman, and I haven’t lived in Arizona since 2013. Take the L, Seane.

Kevin : Is trump worse than you thought he would be…I had extremely low expectations in November of 2016 but somehow he has been even worse.
Keith Law: He’s what I feared. The federal government is slashing science budgets and programs left and right and no one even notices because we’re too busy reacting to him lighting something else on fire.

Ridley Kemp: Speaking of musicians who are best left forgotten: Michael Jackson and R. Kelly are being removed from playlists, but Ted Nugent the Rolling Stones, and The Mamas and The Papas get a pass. Any idea why there would be a different standard?
Keith Law: Timing? Those revelations (and crimes) were longer ago.

Thomas: David Bowie had a teenage relationship, e.g. statutory rape. Should he not be played either?
Keith Law: I can’t tell you where to draw that line for yourself. You should at least ask yourself the question on Bowie and his contemporaries who engaged in similar behavior. I don’t love relativistic approaches to judging such crimes, but I could not agree that Bowie is in the Kelly/Jackson category.

Kevin : who even likes Ted Nugent?
Keith Law: I have never actually met a Ted Nugent fan. I used to really like that style of faux-metal, too, but never liked any of his songs.

Corey: Draft idea, versions of which i’ve seen elsewhere: 1st five picks are the 1st five non-playoff teams, then the rest in the normal order. Incentivizes teams to win
Keith Law: Yep, that’s one I’ve heard and like. Or a lottery. Or take the top N picks and make them a sort of controlled free agency – teams in that range can submit bids on players, who then go to the highest bidders in that group, and then from picks N+1 forward it’s a draft again.

Andy: Add Led Zeppelin to the list of bands who were lucky their scandals happened before the current time frame.
Keith Law: There are some ugly stories with them, if I remember correctly. Motley Crue too, surprising exactly nobody.

Tim: Should any person (even low income blue collar workers) who are guilty of domestic violence be fired and never hired again or does that just apply to MLB players?
Keith Law: MLB players are public figures hired to represent a franchise and perform for (and often spend time with) children in particular. If you can’t see that difference, I can’t help you.

Blake: You (correctly) said Harper would sign with whoever paid him the most. Do you think any players go for fit/location over money? I remember Dawson supposedly told the Cubs he’d play for whatever number they wanted.
Keith Law: Dawson said that to challenge collusion. Some players near the end of their careers will do that – Kerry Wood comes to mind. But peak free agents do not.

JD: Speaking of slashing science budgets, have you read Michael Lewis’s “The Fifth Risk”? Short, demoralizing read about our current government that doubles as a paean to devoted civil servants and the unheralded jobs government takes on.
Keith Law: I won’t for that reason. I’m sure it’s excellent.

Chris: At this point Gio probably couldnt even start a game til mid April at the absolute earliest, so is the idea for the Yanks’ going after him as insurance for Severino being out longer than the first month? Otherwise they could be fine w a month of Cessa/German, no?
Keith Law: He’s depth for the whole year, though. Someone else will get hurt or need some time off. I doubt CC makes 30 starts, for example.

Tom: How did you figure out your red meat allergy/sensitivity? I am going through some issues myself and am wondering if you know about a test that I don’t. A full elimination diet is pretty difficult with a FT job and 2 kids under 3. Hoping for an easier path…
Keith Law: We knew we had the inborn error of metabolism from when my daughter was born and then they tested me and found I had it too. (It’s autosomal recessive, so she got one defective gene from me and one from mom, but I also have two defective genes, and the one I gave my daughter was apparently unique. We were very popular around the hospital for a few days.) My daughter pieced together the “eat beef = feel like crap” connection, although to be honest I was just in denial.

mike sixel: I am all for a controlled FA type “draft”. The teams that don’t make the playoffs get $X to sign 1-3 players, say, for a week or two. Then there is the regular draft, or a new FA where the amount you can spend on one player is capped. Players can choose if team or money is more important. Teams can choose to put more eggs in 1-2 baskets, or spread their risk.
Keith Law: Right? And then the top draft kids might get something closer to market value.
Keith Law: There are really only 2-5 such players in any draft class anyway. They get screwed.

Kevin : People always bring up cutting regulations as why they like trump, but is that a good thing? I mean at some point I like clean water/air plus we cannot have companies like Boeing self regulate.
Keith Law: Right – people who say they want fewer regulations probably don’t mean they want zero safety checks on our food supply (which was never something the USDA etc did well anyway).

adambulldog: Do arb-eligible players receive MLB compensation if they are optioned to the minors?
Keith Law: Depends on their contracts. If they went to arbitration they will get their major-league salary. You can be arb-eligible but accept a split deal if, say, you were non-tendered.

Blake: Any advice on getting someone (teen) to participate in therapy when they really don’t want to? We’ve been through 7-8 therapists so far, tried meds, nothing works.
Keith Law: I wish I had a good answer other than try to find a therapist your teen likes on a personal level, so that therapy becomes like a conversation.

Mike: How fucked up do you have to be to come to a baseball writer’s chat and try to write a gotcha question defending men who engage in violence against women?
Keith Law: Every week.

Henry: Are owners required to report revenue reports to MLB every year? If so, can’t the Union sue as part of the freedom of information act to determine if there is free agency collusion, or an effort to maximize owner profit?
Keith Law: FOIA covers information from government agencies. Doesn’t apply here. The union could demand such information in the CBA but the owners wouldn’t agree to it.

Rick Sanchez: Do you think Wander Franco makes a Soto-like splash in the majors next year as a teenager?
Keith Law: 2020, maybe, but not this year.

Kevin : On average how many questions do you get in these chats?
Keith Law: It’s many hundreds. I don’t have a quick way to count but there are over 330 of you with this chat open right now even though we’re 72 minutes in.
Keith Law: That’s all for me – I have some errands to run and then a weekend at home before I head to Arizona. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions! Look for more scouting posts next week as well as my annual breakouts column.

Keith Law: Today it’s just a place where we meet. Klawchat.

The Fonz: Kimbrel ends up in Atlanta?
Keith Law: I tweeted over the weekend that I heard he was farther down the road towards a deal with Washington. That’s the last info I have (and I haven’t sought more … that just came to me). BTW, let’s chill with the Kimbrel as future-Hall-of-Famer talk. His agent misread the market, and now the player is paying the price for that. Overstating the player’s ability or career doesn’t help.

addoeh: What anti-vaxxers don’t realize is that snake oil sales is a very lucrative business. “Dr’s” Sears and Mercola, Alex Jones, the guy who owns N*****l N**s, and the rest have made a ton of money peddling essential oils, elephant extract elixirs, and other crap they sell.
Keith Law: Yep. It’s a weird, unholy alliance between these mountebanks, parents who need someone to blame for their children’s neuroatypicality, and religious cult members. They can all believe what they want, but if you want to send your kids to school, you need to get them vaccinated.

PhillyJake: Neil Huntington has made the contention that, had he signed a high price free agent, the salary differential could cause a jealousy in the clubhouse, with one player being paid a huge percentage of overall salary. Any thoughts on this type of thinking?
Keith Law: I understand his point, but don’t quite agree. One, if the team wins, every player stands a chance to make more money. Two, the other solution to that is to … sign two players at high prices?

CH: If the Mets have a rough start, an absolute fire sale of their pitching would make sense, right? Get as many good young players for Thor and deGrom as possible?
Keith Law: Yes, especially with that very, very tough division, but I don’t foresee them doing so.

Sam: I’ve been reading the Ringer’s series on the Reds’ scouting reports, and it got me thinking about how scouting has changed over the years. What do you think are the biggest changes you’ve seen in your scouting process or the league’s process as a whole?
Keith Law: Many things – I spoke to Ben about some that may appear in part 3 (that’s not up yet, I think). Scouting reports themselves have changed. Scouts are expected to be more literate in analytical basics, to be better able to provide information R&D can use, to look more at things that we think matter and less at things that we don’t. BTW, one subject I have not seen anywhere was whether the leaking of those reports violated trade secret laws or anything the leaker signed.

JaKob : Hey Keith, how do you see the Brewers 5th spot shaking out between Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta?
Keith Law: I would be very surprised if Woodruff and Burnes don’t both get 20+ starts this year.

JP: Keith – Thanks for the chats and the insider system reviews were great, by the way. I know spring training stats mean diddly, but have you had any looks at anyone or heard reports of anything that jumps out at you?
Keith Law: I haven’t headed to spring training yet – I’ll go Saturday for the first trip. I tend to ignore info from the first week or two, since the stats mean nothing and people react more to how players look (like, best shape of his life stuff) than how they play.

Ron: Hi Keith-Thanks for all your work on prospects and all your baseball write-ups. You and Buster are the only reason I subscribe to Insider. Would it make sense for Minnesota to offer a 1 or 2 year deal to Keuchel if he would take it, or just let that horse leave the barn?
Keith Law: Yes, unless there’s something so drastic in his medicals that they’re uncomfortable even at two years.
Keith Law: The Twins are good. They’re certainly at a point where investing further in the 2019 team is likely to have a positive ROI.

Dean G.: Klaw! My man! Whats good fam? Do you think Chris Paddack makes the Padres rotation early in the year?
Keith Law: Yes.

JaKob : Does Duplantier make the rotation this year for the Dbacks? It appears some injuries would have to happen for that to occur.. What about someone like Jose Suarez for the Angels? Do either of those guys help the big league team if there is no starters role in 2019?
Keith Law: Both probably don’t see the rotation until the second half if at all.

Long Dong Silver: What are your thoughts on Carlos Martinez… this dude is so frustrating… seems like he has the pure talent to be great, but neither the mental durability or “want to” to become an upper echelon pitcher. Would appreciate your thoughts, thanks Keith!
Keith Law: Nice reference in your username. Amazing how a man facing credible accusations of sexual harassment has been allowed to shape US judicial policy for almost 30 years now. I don’t think Martinez lacks “mental durability” or “want to.” He’s a smaller guy who throws hard and gets hurt.

Rodney: No question today, just want to say I’ve enjoyed following you on instagram! I think it’s a good format for you!
Keith Law: thanks! trying different things there since IG is poorly suited to baseball content.

The Dude: My film turned 21 yesterday. Ever seen it?
Keith Law: Did you just ask if I’ve seen The Big Lebowski? Obviously you’re not a golfer.

Moe Mentum: Whose presumed Phillies roster spot did the Bryce Harper signing most likely affect – Altherr, Quinn, or Williams?
Keith Law: Has to be Williams, who went from probable starter to bench guy/trade bait.

Jarrod: Hello Mr. Law, is Ryan Pressly one of the more under rated RPs in the game?
Keith Law: Don’t know how to answer that. Underrated how/by whom? He’s good, a good example of how very progressive teams like Houston target players they think they can improve through R&D-based coaching, but they also gave up two decent prospects to get him.

Nick: What have you heard about Eastlake’s Keoni Cavaco?
Keith Law: Nothing. I only cover top draft prospects at that level.

Bighen: Not that it’s some huge battle but should Mets actually be rooting for Dom Smith to come away with 1B job this spring? Better D, maybe better overall approach at the plate, obviously less power
Keith Law: Yes and also there’s risk he loses any trade value if he has to go back to AAA, whereas Alonso could return to AAA for a couple of months without anyone really batting an eye (pun intended).

Dana: Any book recommendations off the top of your head for somebody who likes Tolstoy, Proust, Stendhal, Dostoyevsky, Balzac and Hugo?
Keith Law: My go-to rec for literary fiction is always Bulgakov’s The Master and Margarita. Bleak House, Middlemarch, The Return of the Native, The Good Soldier all come to mind. But also branch out into some stuff from outside the western canon – how about Ngugi wa’Thiongo’s Wizard of the Crow, GGM’s One Hundred Years of Solitude, Rushdie’s Midnight’s Children (not a favorite of mine, but still a book of great literary merit), or Saramago’s Blindness?

JR: Do you ever go into reading “slumps”? I used to read pretty consistently and have fallen out of the habit of doing so. If you do, how do you work through it?
Keith Law: I do, and I try to read something I know I’ll love – a Nero Wolfe novel, or an Agatha Christie book, or something similarly light and fun.

Mark: Keith, will you be in AZ the weekend of the 15th-16th?
Keith Law: Nope, I’ll be home between trips.

Moe Mentum: Please rank by likelihood of eventual Cooperstown enshrinement: Beltre, Cano, Donaldson, Pedroia, Tulowitzki, Utley
Keith Law: Beltre is a no-doubter. Cano will probably get there. Utley will be on the bubble. The others are not.

Ryan: 13 years seems like a long time for a player that has only played more than 150 games twice. He is always hurt and is a horrible defender. I would imagine by year 5 of this contract the Phillies will be dreading this decision. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Not always hurt, and not a horrible defender until last year, which Mike Petriello showed was probably not predictive.

Daniel L: Is it service time manipulation to keep Tatis Jr down in AAA?
Keith Law: No. He has less than a full season of games above low-A.

JR: Dustin Peterson hitting very well in tigers camp. chances he makes breaks camp with the big club?
Keith Law: Great guy for them to give a shot.

Jake: I love your baseball analysis, but on a different note, can you tell me why you liked Roma so much? I thought it was unique, but really slow and just ok, certainly not best picture worthy.
Keith Law: Great story, amazing cinematography and sound. The only other BP nominee that was close in my opinion was The Favourite. Of course, White Savior won. I wonder if some voters skipped Roma because it’s not in English.

Daniel L: Paddack’s curve seems better so far this spring no?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: Wishful thinking.

eric: Keith,

Just how far under the radar is Dylan Carlson? Big bodied kid, switch hitter and will be one of the youngest players in his league this year.

I’m guessing he will see a jump in power leaving the FSL.

Is it far fetched to see him ascend into the top 100 by midseason?
Keith Law: He’s not under the radar at all.

Cole: Do you trust David Fletcher as the everyday 2B for the Angels, or should they have tried to find someone in free agency?
Keith Law: No, utility guy.

Yu: Do you think Yu gets back to being Yu or is he 2018 Yu? What says you?
Keith Law: Think he’ll get back to his usual self now that he’s healthy.

Roger: Which wild pitcher has the best chance of having a career as a starter between Luis Medina, Jorge Guzman and Alec Hansen?
Keith Law: Medina. Most likely none of them, but Medina is at least healthy and his delivery works.

Roger: It seems that you are the high man on Oscar Mercado. Does he take one of the starting OF spots out of camp?
Keith Law: It wouldn’t be a bad move for them, but I don’t try to handicap who’ll win Opening Day jobs.

Dan: Have you listed to The Black Keys new single?
Keith Law: No, not really a big fan. All their stuff sounds the same to me.

Roger: What do you think attributed to Alex Faedo’s velo dip last year? Is it something that could return to normal this year?
Keith Law: He never really threw that hard in college. It was a bad first-round pick.

Billy: The importance of vaccinations clearly shouldn’t even be an debate. So should we be concerned about the immunization records of illegal aliens? How do we ensure they are (or become) properly immunized?
Keith Law: By making it much, much easier for people to immigrate here legally. They’re coming whether we like it or not, so let’s formalize the process, so that everyone entering the country can, say, show proof of immunization (or just get immunized on the spot), or allow us to conduct background checks for any history of violent crimes.

Zac: You are firmly against giving Luke Heimlich any publicity, but Jeff Passan recently reported accounts think he could be an MLB pitcher, have you guys talked about not giving him any publicity?
Keith Law: Jeff works with me, not for me.

Alex Anthopoulos: I was wise to stand pat with trades because not enough teams are willing to trade now, but likely will by mid season. Fair?
Keith Law: Eh. I don’t think i agree with the premise. That said, Atlanta didn’t have any obvious weak spots either.

Mike: In your Cubs writeup you wrote that Brennan Davis needs to improve his pitch recognition but a 14% BB rate as a raw 2 sport guy shows some polish
Keith Law: Walk rate – especially in complex ball – is not any indicator of pitch recognition.

Mac: I get Bobby Witt’s age somewhat matters now but projecting him out will it matter when he’s 23? 25? 30? Seems to be a lot of overthinking at the top of the draft.
Keith Law: It affects his long-term projection. You’re glossing over the empirical evidence we have that HS position player projections are affected by age on draft day. Also, there are real swing and miss concerns with him.

Beep: Andrew Vaughn. Defensively, any chance he could play the OF? 3B? If relegated to 1B, what kind of defensive potential does he have there?
Keith Law: 1B only. Anything else is wishful thinking.

Alan: Too early for draft intel? Anything on the White Sox at #3?
Keith Law: Way too early. Try me in about six weeks.

JC: Kimbrel would have a team by now if his agent wasn’t trying to convince teams his 2018 & 2016 didn’t exist & price accordingly
Keith Law: Agreed. Also, the last time we saw the guy pitch he couldn’t throw a strike, and his manager used a starter to close out the last game.

Dan: Serious, maybe ignorant question. As a white male who is raising two young boys, what can I do as a father to make sure my children grow up in a completely tolerant, non-privileged way?
Keith Law: You can’t. That’s an unattainable goal. You can raise them to be kind to others, and you can avoid raising them to think ill of those who are different, and as they get older you can point out to them that not all the kids had the same advantages they’ve had. But you can’t make perfect children; nobody can.

Osiris : Do you see DJ Peters playing any kind of significant role for the Dodgers in 2019?
Keith Law: No. I’m not sure he will ever play a significant role for them.

rufreshterp: Is it AT ALL POSSIBLE that you’ve confused Luis Garcia for Yasel Antuna, which would then help explain why you seem to have absolutely no regard for Luis Garcia?
Keith Law: Fuck off.
Keith Law: Really, if you came here to my site to insult me, then leave.

Mark: Do fans really care about the length of games?
Keith Law: I don’t think so; I think that they care about dead time during games – but perhaps that’s because *I* care about dead time during games.

Poke: Any chance Adley could slip to the White Sox at #3?
Keith Law: Any chance, sure. Would I bet on it? No. Seems like he is the safest bet for 1 right now, assuming he doesn’t get hurt (he is a catcher, after all). If the Orioles decided to take Vaughn for his otherworldly hitting performance, l would then guess Adley goes 2.

Jerry: Do you think there are still people who legitimately believe in lower taxes, less regulation, “freedom” of religion, etc? I used to give the benefit of the doubt to my conservative/Republican acquaintances. After living in NE Texas throughout the Obama and Trump years (I lived in Houston before) I am convinced that it was all a cover for people to legitimize their bigotry and racism. I can’t believe how naïve I was all of these years.
Keith Law: I do. There is a real, longstanding school within economics that argues, with some evidence, that lower taxes and less regulation lead to greater economic growth (probably) and thus to greater prosperity for all (that’s becoming less true, if it ever was). I also think that idea works better for countries trying to rapidly industrialize, like Estonia after independence, than a country like ours that is already developed and now trying to support a large and aging population.

Zihuatanejo: With Kershaw looking tenuous, should the Dodgers consider signing Keuchel? Any chance they do?
Keith Law: I was thinking Gio for them.

Zihuatanejo: I see anti-vax, climate change denial, flat-earthers, and similar nonsense as symptoms of a larger problem — the mindset of “I probably know more about this subject than the professionals who study it for a living.” When and how do you think this arose? Was it created by Internet culture, or did the Internet merely enable these people?
Keith Law: The Internet allowed those people to find other deniers and thus cement their views. Denialism goes back centuries. They’re just louder now.

JR: What was your thoughts on the Leaving Neverland doc?
Keith Law: I posted that here yesterday – it’s the post before this one.

Mark: I find that people tend to gravitate to the sort of pizza they grew up with. If i remember the pizza of your youth was Little Vincent’s which seems to be a far cry from the pizza you favor today. Was there a particular pizza that reshaped your taste buds ?
Keith Law: That was near where I grew up but not the specific pizzeria we frequented most often. I first had real Neapolitan pizza on my first trip to Europe during college and it was love at first bite.

Craig R.: Does the young man you tweeted about yesterday for the 2020 draft, Zac Veen have a chance to go 1st overall next year?
Keith Law: Way too soon for that. Impressive prospect, though. He’s at Spruce Creek – I believe I said Spring Creek in the tweet and that was a mistake.

I7LITE: The Rangers are years away from contention and just gave a bunch of guaranteed money to a closer with one good season. Shouldn’t they be dealing guys like Leclerc, Gallo, Mazara, and anyone else with more than a year of service time, rather than extending them?
Keith Law: That assumes the market will give them fair value for such players. Two corner bats, one of whom still hasn’t performed up to expectations, the other is Rob Deer reincarnated, and a reliever with one good year under his belt are not exactly highly valuable assets right now.

Joe: Do you think the Braves scouting approach will change much going from Bridges to Brown?
Keith Law: I do not. I do think Anthopoulos will have a hand in draft strategy, albeit not in specific picks.

Bob from Accounting: Your take on “tampering” as it was so overtly executed by Bryce the other day? Seems to be an outdated concept that exists solely for the sake of posterity, but I can see where the team holding the target of the tamper would get bent out of shape.
Keith Law: Didn’t see any issue with Harper saying he’d like to play with the best player in baseball who happens to be from the area where Harper plays now.

Don: I’m worried about Kyle Tucker. I expected him to rake in spring training but he’s been pretty mediocre. Are you still high on him?
Keith Law: He’s 5 for 19.

Doug: Enjoyed chatting with you and do highly recommend the Smithsonian Documentary on The Green Book. What is Griffin Canning’s ceiling for the Halos?
Keith Law: If you ignore the health questions he had out of UCLA, #2-3 starter.

Joe: Thoughts on the Hicks extension? Not a lot of money, but seems like Hicks is hurt quite a bit (including now).
Keith Law: Yes but even missing a little time a year he’s extremely valuable, and a full year of him is going to be worth much more than he’s paid.

WhiteSoxAndy: Do the White Sox still have a bright future after this epic failure of an offseason or am I doomed to watch crap for quite some time?
Keith Law: Was it a failure? I don’t see that. I’m sure you wish they’d landed one of the two big fish, but both players signed large, lucrative deals, and I wouldn’t want the White Sox to start trading prospects yet since the major league team isn’t contending yet and their system is still shallow.

Cartoons Plural : Allen Webster fulfilling the hype that he once had or SSS?
Keith Law: Can we make NSS a thing? No Sample Size?

Frank: I’m going to new orleans for the first time this summer, so you have any recommendations for good BBQ places? Thanks.
Keith Law: I don’t think I’ve ever had Q in New Orleans. I’ve had the local dish called barbecue shrimp, which isn’t smoked or even grilled, but is shrimp baked/braised in butter. (It’s good.) I haven’t been in years but usually when I’m there I eat gumbo and fried shellfish.

Ty: I need some hope as a Tigers fan… Do you view Mize as a future ace or more of a 2/3? Does he realistically get called up to Detroit this year?
Keith Law: Future ace.

Mike: Angels pitchers have openly criticized Scioscia’s hindrance of progressive pitch coaching. Should we expect measurable performance increases, or is this just excitement about a new boss?
Keith Law: No, I think they’ll be better overall. I criticize Ausmus when he errs – okay, he does that a lot – but my understanding is that the Angels hired him to implement this new information/style of development.
Keith Law: Also, he’s so handsome.

Jerry: Will there be a work stoppage in ’21? Do the players have any chance of prevailing? Why do “fans” take the owners side in these disputes?
Keith Law: My bet now is yes.

Aaron (Houston): Klaw, follow up to twitter question about duck recipe. I baught a whole duck and am looking for your recommendation on roasting a whole duck.
Keith Law: Yes, I remember that – I actually don’t cook it whole. I break it down into two legs and two breasts. You can braise the legs and then just sear the breasts; Ruhlman’s Twenty has recipes for both. I have a sous vide machine and use that for the breasts, then just finish with a quick sear, so they stay medium-rare.

MikeM: Thoughts on Severino’s rotator cuff tendonitis? Does it portend future issues or is this just a one time thing?
Keith Law: We don’t have enough information to say.

Adam: When in spring training is the lack of velocity a concern? Saw Kenley was down to 89 mph the other day. Fulmer was at 91. both said they will be good by the end of March..
Keith Law: If someone’s velocity is still off in the final week, I get concerned. If I see someone live and his effort is higher but the velocity is lower, that might be a concern too.

Nick: Fastest rising “pop up guy” you’ve seen in your scouting tenure?
Keith Law: Benintendi.

VG Jr: Am I a top 5 hitter when I step on the field after service time manipulation?
Keith Law: No, I’d take the under on that.

Nick: Best 2 prospects you’ve seen on one team (h.s or college)? Feel like Trevor Bauer and Gerrit Cole have to be up there
Keith Law: Tough to top that – 1st pick and 3rd. At one point, Harvard-Westlake HS had seniors Luc Giolito and Max Fried and sophomore 3b/rhp Jack Flaherty.

Thomas: Best shows you’ve watched on Netflix?
Keith Law: Haven’t watched many shows at all but Russian Doll was +++.

Todd: Gleyer and Andujar regress at all this season?
Keith Law: I’m not expecting that, especially not from Gleyber.

Nino from The Money Team: Giolito seems to sitting back up in the mid-90s but is still all over the place – are the Sox still undoing a lot of the damage the Nats inflicted upon him or is this what he is and will be?
Keith Law: MLB says he’s thrown 75% of his pitches for strikes this spring. Also, it’s March 7th.

Nick: What country could you see being the next hot bed for international talent that isn’t high on the radar now?
Keith Law: Brazil. South Africa. Uganda has had some very good little league teams the last few years; I heard from a scout who went there with MLB that there were players there who could go to junior college here, which is utterly astounding when you consider its baseball isolation and lack of history with the sport.
Keith Law: Of course India and China are easy guesses … with 1 billion people each there must be some kid there who can run 3.97 down the line or throw 95 mph, just without any baseball skills.

Danny: Not a judgment comment- actual earnest question from a Yankees fan- do you think Cano will get in with the PED suspension?
Keith Law: Yes, by that point so many of the older voters will have stopped voting, lost their badges, or passed away that PED suspensions will be seen as a minor ding but not a disqualification.

Mike: what is the defensive outlook for Tyler O’Neill, looking like he will get serious playing time this year
Keith Law: Below average defender.

Pat D: Hi, Keith. No question, just a comment. We had to put down our dog yesterday. Pretty shitty day, obviously. But I was at least able to take some entertainment and get a few laughs from seeing you excoriate those idiots on Twitter last night. Please don’t ever change and don’t ever stick to baseball. Thanks!
Keith Law: Oh man, I’m sorry to hear that. Very painful to lose a beloved pet.

Nick: How many teams are still heavily working in Venezuela? Seems like employees could really be at risk with current events.
Keith Law: Maybe 6 to 8?

Thomas: Not a Harper hater by any stretch – the guy has talent and he plays hard. I just can’t believe a guy who’s been worth 1.5 WAR or less in 3 of his 7 seasons just got a $330M contract.
Keith Law: Except Fangraphs has him worth quite a bit more, so your premise doesn’t hold.

Ben: Thoughts on the moving-back-the-mound experiment?
Keith Law: Oh hell no, Karen.

JC: Klaw, thanks for another chat. I am as frustrated as anyone about the rule for bringing up players, but is there any reason the players union would make this a top priority? The union has only seemed to care about the stars and not the rank and file. Is there a way to connect this issue to the interests of current players so they would fight for it. Kris Bryant seems to be the only one preaching about it.
Keith Law: Bryant talking about it will help – the union’s motivation is that such players would get to free agency (or even arbitration) faster and, because they’re likely to be premium players, push the upper bounds even further when they get there. Harper and Machado got to the majors at 19, and both just hit the top end of the all-time salary scale as free agents. That’s good for the union as a whole.

Rick: Oops – hit enter by accident before. Anyhow, maybe I’m in the minority and I couldn’t appreciate the “art” of it all, but I thought Roma was horrid to the point where I couldn’t even finish watching it. Not that I was a fan of Green Book but those calling it the worst BP winner in recent memory apparently didn’t see last year’s winner which may be the worst movie ever made. I’d rather suffer through another Avengers movie with my 7 year old than watch that garbage.
Keith Law: The Shape of Water was the worst movie ever made? Wow. I didn’t have it at 1 – that was The Florida Project, which didn’t get a nomination – but I thought it was good, beautifully shot, with a dumb antagonist, and a great lead performance by Hawkins.

Eric: My 3 yr old son loves cooking with me and my wife. When did you get your daughter involved in cooking with you, how did you keep her interested and what tasks are best as they are this young?
Keith Law: At 3 she was just sort of standing nearby, making kneading dough or something simple like that. Now when she wants to help she can man the stove – she’ll do anything but cut or chop, really.

Danny: Do you listen to the Arctic Monkeys and if so, what albums would you recommend?
Keith Law: Yes. Whatever You Say I Am … and AM are my favorites.

Adam: What have you seen in Braxton Davidson? Anything stand out that he needs to change? Power and recognition seem to be positives.
Keith Law: Recognition is a negative. Also seen velocity eat him up in the zone.

Jared: Do you think Jimmy Nelson can get back to his 2017 form?
Keith Law: I do not have any inside info on him at all, but I would generally bet against guys who have shoulder surgery regaining their old form. A few will, the majority will not.

Mike: I have been trying to make the point to some friends on the right that we are already have socialism in our country in that we are not pure capitalist by definition. Programs like unemployment insurance, social security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc. are by definition socialist policies. In a pure capitalist society it’s every man for himself. Why doesn’t the left stand up to the nonsense political messaging the right is clearly setting up for the 2020 campaign?
Keith Law: We are not pure capitalist – no country is – and nobody in the popular sphere is proposing pure socialism. People are proposing a stronger social safety net, which does not require any government ownership of industry. But if you say “socialism” 30% of the country will use the flag as a loincloth and vote for you.

Steve L.: Why can’t both parties admit that what Omar has stated is anti-Semitic yet there is an underlying point that is worth discussing? Or is this just grandstanding to each parties base?
Keith Law: What she stated was not anti-Semitic; what she stated was anti-Netanyahu, and perhaps anti-Israel, but Israel the nation-state is not Judaism the faith.

Dylan: Guy I know told me with a 100 percent straight face that he doesn’t get the flu shot because it gives him the flu. Instead, the vaccinate himself against the flu, he eats expired leftover meats, which helps his immune system. I kind of just backed away slowly to avoid whatever super germs he was carrying. I know people are scared of the big science words that are in vaccines but this was a new level of bonkers.
Keith Law: Yeah, he’s not very bright.

Mac: Will you be seeing Priester this spring? If so, he’s only going 1-2 innings until May. (EDIT: This is inaccurate.)
Keith Law: He’s on the list of guys I’d like to see, but I was unlikely to see him until late April or early May because it’s cold.

Tom: Would you put Jake Lamb or Christian Walker at first this year?
Keith Law: Lamb. Never thought of Walker as anything more than a bench piece.

Stats: wRC+ or OPS+?
Keith Law: wRC+ is better, in my opinion.

Daniel: Can we not call people illegal aliens? I mean many of these people are asylum seekers fleeing violence that is in a large part due to US Foreign Policy.
Keith Law: The term is meant to demean them by ‘othering’ these immigrants – they’re not humans, they’re aliens! Just like in that Genesis video. (Don’t watch it. Really.)

Chris: Hi Keith, what can we expect from Jack Flaherty this year? He struck out a ton of guys last year and has looked good this spring (though that can mean nothing) but can we expect him to really take a step forward on his peripheral stats?
Keith Law: I may have missed a step here – is there an expectation he’ll take a step forward? I think last year was great, kind of what I thought he’d be a year or two down the road, so I’m not projecting improvement.

Jon: Keith, thoughts on Cabello please? I’m reading a 55 hit tool with 50 PWR and 60 SPD, but not sure I’m sold on that. Thank you.
Keith Law: Happy to try to answer questions like this but if the surname is common I need a first name.

Tony: Klaw, no question but just wanted to say that in 2018 I cancelled all my subs in an effort to see what I really needed. Here we are in March 2019 and the only one I’ve gone back to is ESPN+ to read your work. So tell your boss you’re more valuable than Netflix or Amazon Prime to at least one person. Thank you!
Keith Law: Wait till you see my one-man rendition of In Search of Lost Time.
Keith Law: (Two Proust references in one Klawchat!)

Matt: RE: Jerry’s question about small government, free market conservatives – we still exist, we just are no longer republicans. Socially we have long agreed with the democrats. Now, everything we disagreed with the democrats doing economically the republicans are championing.
Keith Law: Very fair. I voted Republican for a while because of such issues, and because I didn’t care enough about social policies. I care more about those now – as I should have all along – and as you said, the GOP no longer stands for small government, lower taxes, or transparency, and they stand for reducing regulations without regard to societal costs and benefits.

SEC Guy: so trading picks is (mostly) not allowed, but could Baltimore accept cash considerations (or even a player) from KC to pass on a guy? Say for example KC offers Baltimore Yefri Del Rosario to pass on Adley (setting aside whether this is a good deal). Could Baltimore send the trade to the commissioner’s office as “for future considerations” and effectively trade one draft spot like that?
Keith Law: Illegal. Good way to get smacked like Atlanta did.

Jonathan: Chances on Jarrett Parker cracking the Angels’ roster? Career 112 wRC+ (in 382 PAs) and his approach this spring has been great (7 BBs and opp-approach with power).
Keith Law: Gotta flag you twice for bad use of wRC+. His career figure is badly skewed by a tiny sample in 2015 where he hit 6 homers in 52 PA; since then his wRC+ is under 100, in most of his career sample. And his limited major league time has also been skewed by platooning – he’s a LHB who’s faced LHP only about 20% of his PA. On top of that, who cares what he’s done in ten spring training games?

Cartoons Plural : Aaron Boone said that he’s not going to start the season with 2 1B bc he’ll have a 3 man bench, why haven’t they already cut bait with Ellsbury and Bird?
Keith Law: Ellsbury isn’t his call – that’s the GM’s. Bird they may just cut at the end of spring training if Voit is the 1b and they can’t find a trade target for Bird (some bad team without a DH should take a shot at him).

Tom: Assuming the D-backs get reasonably good value out of their many early draft picks this year, where could their org ranking end up in 2020? Top 5?
Keith Law: Top 5 is fair.

PhillyJake: Whole Duck: Spatchecock, indirect heat, pan with water underneath the duck to catch fat. Any standard sauce will work.
Keith Law: Interesting. I would assume this would overcook the breasts.

Adam: Any thoughts on the final season of Thrones?
Keith Law: Yes, glad it’s ending so I don’t have to hear about it any more. I hated the first book and never watched the show.

Ytics: I live among Reds fans, and I’ve never seen a group of people so hyped for the possibility of an 80-82 season. A colleague told me “if (8 or 9 separate things) break right, we could be .500 this year!” Makes me wish they’d traded Senzel and Trammell for Kluber. It’d be the baseball equivalent of blowing your savings on a coked-up weekend in Vegas.
Keith Law: Was it worth trading two valuable prospects to LA in pursuit of that goal? I don’t think so.

Cartoons Plural : Jasson Dominguez has gotten Wander Franco-level hype, have you any thoughts on the future Yankees prospect?
Keith Law: If he’s getting that kind of hype it’s not warranted. But I haven’t heard that either.

Mike: do you watch the NCAA basketball tournament (March Madness) and do you fill out a bracket?
Keith Law: No and no.

Matthew: He’s stagnated recently, but do you see a future everyday regular in Lucas Erceg?
Keith Law: Has the ability, but needs to make real adjustments to his approach. Discussed that in the Brewers org report.

Jeff: Are you planning on seeing Luis Robert next week? As a White Sox fan, I hope you’re not!
Keith Law: I’m going to try to see him when I get to Arizona and I expect he will be out with a pulled sphincter or something.

Brian: Can you explain why which position a player plays can impact their bat? I’ve read/heard numerous times that if a player moves to a different position it can impact his bat? I don’t quite understand why that would be the case. I love baseball but never played so I was curious why. Thanks!
Keith Law: Some positions require more work in-game and can lead to wear and tear; asking a player to play a new position, or one he plays poorly, can require more work pregame/between games so that he might be slightly more worn down when hitting.

Grant: Keith, have you ever thought about posting your reading activity on Goodreads? I’d be interested to see what you’re reading. I’m always looking to expand my TBR list.
Keith Law: I mention 90% of the books I read in my posts here – I end every book review with a note on what I’m reading next. I’m not giving my content to Goodreads for them to monetize.

Ryan: I have ESPN+ and The Athletic now. If I want to share something from there with a friend that doesn’t have it, is it okay for me to copy and paste? Also when a writer copies your write up of a prospect and shares it in their own article, is that legal even if they fully credit you?
Keith Law: Copying and pasting something of mine online, such as in a forum or on reddit, is both not okay and a copyright violation. Quoting me in part while discussing a player, or even just discussing my list/column, is fine, and as long as you link to me I appreciate it. I’m not worried about what people copy/paste into emails. Thank you for asking, though – I appreciate that you’ve thought about this.

P.J.: Rio Ruiz is getting good reviews in Orioles camp. He made one of your top 100 lists a few years back. Any chance he’s a late bloomer and an average player at 3B this season for the Birds?
Keith Law: I really doubt it. Hasn’t performed in the high minors at all. When he shines, though, he really shows you all he can.

WAR: Does this mean fWAR is better than rWAR? Is it just a preference, or are you just saying cherry-picking is bad? I believe the big difference between the two for position players is defense, but I’ve never been able to pick up on the industry’s preference.
Keith Law: Regarding Harper, that’s not what I was saying. I meant that when the two differ that much, you can’t cherrypick the worse of the two and wave it around like it’s definitive or even directionally correct.

Spencer: Related to some research I’ve been doing: if you have three players with identical 8 hit tools, how many HR’s should you expect in a full season if their respective power tools are a 2, 5, and 8?
Keith Law: This is too abstract to answer.

J: What is the one ridiculously overplayed classic rock song you NEVER tire of?
Keith Law: The truth is I’ve tired of just about all of them, but Boston’s “More Than a Feeling” has held up pretty well.

Phillies Prospects: Hi Keith – I am the one who asked you last week about people reposting your work. I am happy to make a comment in support, wanted to make sure this is the type of thing that would bother you.
Keith Law: Thank you, I just emailed the site in question.

Tucci Mane: Socialism involves the redistribution of the means of production to the workers, eliminating the non-working owners or investors. The social welfare state is public schools, social security, providing health insurance, etc. We should stop conflating the two things.
Keith Law: Exactly. We don’t teach this at all in school, though. HS economics classes don’t get into economic systems.

Thomas: Shouldn’t a best picture winner be something that can be broadly enjoyed like Black Panther?
Keith Law: No. Many great works of art can’t be “broadly enjoyed.”

Nick: Where have you had the best pasta in the US? Monteverde?
Keith Law: That would be the first name that came to mind. Also Rolf & Daughters, Republique, Barbuzzo, Osteria, and my kitchen.

Ben: I’ve not had the flu since I was a teen (30+ years). I’ve never had a flu shot. I minimize my exposure to others, and wash my hands multiple times a day. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Yeah, you’re lucky, and selfish too. Herd immunity requires more people to get immunized. And if you’re nearing 50, you are at greater risk of serious medical complications if you do get the flu.

Eric: I am Jewish, and have been super pro-Israel most of my life. Only until recently have I realized that defending Israel at all costs was super wrong and I was brainwashed into doing it. Criticizing Israel and AIPAC is definitely NOT antisemetic. Bibi has been absolutely awful, and doing absolutely horrific things to people of different faiths living in Israel. What Rep. Omar said was extremely on-point and not antisemetic. It was, in fact, important for her to point out. We need to stop equating defense of Israel as the only way you aren’t antisemetic. /rant
Keith Law: Thank you. Also, getting Bibi out – he’s in some serious hot water now over corruption charges – would make a huge difference in 1) how much we should support Israel the nation-state and 2) the chances of peace in the region.

Nick: Have you read The Corrections by Jonathan Franzen? I have really enjoyed it so far.
Keith Law: I didn’t care for it that much, mostly because I found the characters so unpleasant.

Chris: No question, but did you happen to hear the Jo Adell interview on “Angels recap podcast”? I was so impressed with his maturity and work ethic as a 19 year old. If he can improve his contact, I expect big things.
Keith Law: I didn’t, but that lines up with everything I’ve heard about him since he was signed.

MikeM: Bird has options left. Why would they cut him. He has no trade value. Stash him at AAA and see if he hits.
Keith Law: Sorry, that’s on me. I should have been more precise – I was thinking “cut” in a nonspecific way. But I do think that Bird has to be a DH, and the Yankees may be better served trading him now rather than burying him in AAA.

Bill: People cite Crash as the worst Oscar winner of recent memory (a well deserved nod) but I find Million Dollar Baby equally hideous…full of one-dimensional characters, manipulative scenes and hackneyed dialogue. Lifetime has done better work…do you have a recent winner that grates on you.
Keith Law: Other than Green Book, which is terrible, I’d say The Artist, which is a trifle and very self-serving (look how important movies are!). The best movie I saw in that cycle was A Separation, which won Best Foreign Language Film, and among BP nominees, Hugo and Midnight in Paris (yeah, I know) were clearly better than The Artist.

Elton: Is Mejia going to become a star in San Diego? Do you think he’s ready this year?
Keith Law: I think he’s ready, and if he stays at C he’s a star.

Chris: I think the guy above may have been asking about Antonio Cabello. Also, they will option Bird to AAA, no reason to cut him entirely, right? It’s not like he’s being blocked by Goldschmidt should things finally click.
Keith Law: That was my first guess – Cabello was my #9 prospect in the Yankees system, and I even had one exec suggest him as a top 100 guy, so yeah, he’s for real.

Andy: With Wieters entering the itinerant stage of his career, if he a disappointment? If you’re the Orioles, are you satisfied with the pick and the value he’s produced? The PECOTA projection skewed expectations, but is 8 years of a starting catcher good value?
Keith Law: Yeah, he’s a bust for a 5th overall pick.

james: how can I get your lists in canada. called espn and they said they can’t do nothing.
Keith Law: did you say signing back up through the VPN didn’t work? Even if you choose digital delivery of the magazine?

Elton: I will be embarking on Charterstone soon with my board gaming friends. Have you played any other legacy board games?
Keith Law: Only that and Pandemic Legacy. Charterstone is wonderful.

Jake: Who is more likely to make an impact in 2020: Vidal Brujan or Gavin Lux?
Keith Law: Lux is closer.

Ryan: How does J.J. Bleday compare to junior year Bryan Reynolds at Vanderbilt?
Keith Law: Bleday more polished, Reynolds more toolsy.

Ben: Do you think Charlotte, Nashville, or Raleigh would be the most viable MLB city?
Keith Law: Nashville of those three. Austin if we’re looking at any city.

PhillyJake: Adding my own $0.02 to the AIPAC discussion – Actually, scratch that. Read Thomas Friedman’s piece in yesterday’s NY Times. I can’t say it any better than he did. PS. Why did Jim Jordan get a pass for his racist reference to Steyer, replacing the S with a $ ? Yeah, I know it’s whataboutism. But there seems to be a double standard.
Keith Law: Of course there’s a double standard. Until the GOP suffers a resounding loss some November, it won’t change.

Dr. Lizardo: Keith, first of all, thanks for the chats and thanks for your postings on vaccinations. Opinion on Jesse Winker, does he make a few all-star teams before he is done?
Keith Law: I feel like he’s the kind of player who deserves to make some All-Star teams and never makes one because high-OBP middling-power LF types don’t make AS teams. But I’m a fan.
Keith Law: Good example of a guy I totally misread in HS. Saw him awful vs a bad prep LHP. Obviously not a tools guy so I didn’t have that as a fallback. Guy gets into pro ball and shows the plate discipline of an advanced 23-year-old. I reversed course right away but that’s still a mistake.

PhillyJake: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/06/opinion/israel-ilhan-omar.html
Keith Law: That link is Thomas Friedman, trying to make the case against Ilhan Omar, but in the process making the case for Ilhan Omar.

Jake: Your ESPN work is pretty firmly behind a paywall, which actually makes a subscription worth something. What about these sites where you get “10 Free Articles”? Do they not realize that either private browsing or clearing your cache is an easy way around this?
Keith Law: So many people won’t bother with workarounds that they likely find it’s effective enough.
Keith Law: OK, gotta move along … went overtime this week since chats the next few weeks may be intermittent as I travel for spring training. Thank you all as always for reading and for all of your questions – so many good ones, baseball and other, that I couldn’t get to this time. I’ll try to do another chat next Thursday as long as my flight is on time.