keith — Page 83

→ June 15, 2019
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 6/16/19.

I had one ESPN+ piece this week, looking at which teams just drafted their new #1 or #2 prospects in last week’s draft.

On July 8th, the day after the MLB Futures Game, I’ll be speaking at the Hudson Library in Hudson, Ohio, about Smart Baseball and signing books.

My free email newsletter is back, at least in the sense that I’ve sent it out twice in the last two weeks, so maybe sign up for that too.

And now, the links…

Longreads first: The Guardian has an excerpt on a book that argues there are harmful effects of the co-opting of mindfulness by those who push it as a panacea.
The New Yorker solved the mystery of the McCarthy campaign worker Pat Sylvester who impressed Robert F. Kennedy in an impromptu conversation (that included Taylor Branch, later to win a Pulitzer Prize) at the Indianapolis Airport just a month before Kennedy was assassinated.
This piece was free but went premium after I bookmarked it – the Chronicle of Higher Education looks at how the University of Utah failed to protect a student who was stalked and later killed by her former partner.
In the backwater swirling, update: Alabama banned abortion for rape victims but protects the parental rights of rapists. BBC’s The Inquiry podcast asked why is it always Alabama? in this week’s episode.
Former Congressional candidate Paul Nehlen has turned to advocating violence in favor of a whites-only state.
Nancy Bass Wyden, owner of New York’s iconic bookstore The Strand, penned an editorial opposing the city’s designation of the building and store as a landmark. Reason also has an editorial on the topic, pointing out the immense power the 11-person landmarks committee holds over New York City real estate.
Afghanistan veteran and former Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander spoke to NBC News about his struggle with post-traumatic stress disorder.
A single mutation turned almonds from toxic to a major culinary item, as it removed the amygdalin (found in bitter almonds as well as the nuts at the hearts of peaches) from the nuts.
George Will says that young people have decided the GOP is ‘the dumb party,’ arguing that the Republicans have become the cult of Trump and are devoid of ideas. I tend to agree, but don’t think it’s a fait accompli that Democrats benefit – they need to counter with workable policy ideas of their own and to improve their ground game to capitalize.
Board game news: Renegade Studios announced a September release for Icarus, a collaborative storytelling game about the fall of a civilization.
Deep Water Games opened a Kickstarter for Soveriegn Skies, a midweight Euro that promises to play in 45 minutes.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: alabama, board game news, food science, links, longreads, mental health, ptsd, stick to baseball, white nationalism

→ June 9, 2019
→ By keith

Azul: Stained Glass of Sintra.

Azul was my #1 game of 2017 and remains a huge favorite in my house for so many reasons – simple mechanics, high interaction, appealing components, solid play for two players and for four, and the most important fact: it’s a lot of fun. The game was such a huge hit that the designer and Next Move games have released a spinoff game, Azul: Stained Glass Of Sintra, that borrows about half of the mechanics of the original but asks players to achieve different goals, creating a slightly longer game but one I find just as entertaining.

The basics of Azul: Stained Glass Of Sintra are identical to the original. Tiles in five colors are placed on platforms in the center of the table, four per platform, and on a turn, each player takes all of the tiles of one color from a platform. Remaining tiles go to the center, from which players may also take tiles. As the round progresses, players then have to weigh the potential of getting stuck with tiles they can’t place, which also carries a penalty – this time, one that increases as the game goes on, rather than resetting every round.

Here, players have unique boards of eight columns of five spaces in different combinations of those colors. The player places as many of the tiles they’ve taken in a single column, moving their personal glazier token to that column. Once a column is filled, the player places one of the tiles on his board below the columns, discards the rest, and scores: 1 to 4 points for that column, plus points for every column to the right of that one for which the player has scored at least once previously in the game, plus one point per tile matching the special tile color for that round.

When a player fills a column, they flip it to the other side, which contains a different pattern; once that side is filled, the column is removed entirely. The bottom board thus has two spaces under every column, and there are bonuses at game-end tied to how many of those spaces you fill and in where – two different sets of bonuses, depending on which side of the boards the players use. My preference is side A, which gives you bonuses of 3, 6, or 10 points per 2×2 square.

The original game is a good bit simpler and more streamlined than this game, which takes slightly longer to play, but also gives you more options than the first game did. In the first game, it was easier to get stuck with tiles you couldn’t place. Here, you have more spaces to fill and more options, plus a way to pass your turn by moving your glazier back to the first position (you can only places tiles under him or to his right), which factors into the calculus at the end of the round battle to avoid getting the shaft.

There’s an elegance to the original that’s missing in this game, but the play in this game is also more open-ended, so you will usually feel like you have more choices. I don’t know that this is really a distinct game from the original; it’s more like a new flavor of the same thing. Some folks like original recipe and some like extra crispy. If you loved the first Azul as I did, though, you’ll at least like this version. (You can also buy the original game here.)

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: board games, family games, family strategy games

→ June 8, 2019
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 6/8/19.

Of course, most of my content this week was around this year’s MLB draft, but my biggest piece is actually free for everyone to read – my oral history of the drafting of Mike Trout, as told by the people who were there. For ESPN+ subscribers, you can read my draft recaps for all 15 AL teams and all 15 NL teams. I also held a Klawchat during day two of the draft and a live Periscope chat on Friday.

I really am trying to take time off this weekend, but I still plan to send out a new email newsletter to subscribers (it’s free, you just have to sign up) by Monday.

And now, the links…

Longreads first: That mass-market chocolate product you bought was probably the product of child labor, according to an extensive Washington Post report that documents the chocolate industry’s attempts to avoid accountability for sourcing its raw material. Desperate poverty in Burkina Faso and near-zero enforcement in Côte d’Ivoire have also contributed, and third-party certifications like FairTrade aren’t as reliable as they claim to be. The ultimate solution lies with consumers: Don’t buy cheap chocolate. Buy from companies that can identify their cacao sources.
Just four companies control 60% of global seed sales. This is bad news for our planet and our plates, writes chef Dan Barber, author of The Third Plate and now a seed activist of sorts. We’re reducing biodiversity at a time when we need plants to evolve to cope with our destruction of the environment; we’re reducing the nutrition and flavor of the plants we eat (or the meat we eat, which feeds on those plants).
The New York Times‘ editorial writers Bret Stephens (an Islamophobe and a climate change denier) and Bari Weiss have taken to extreme concern trolling over restrictions on free speech on campus, repeating the same tired (and misleading) talking points the paper has pushed for over a century.
It’s a shame the Times runs such drivel on its editorial page, because its investigative work remains top-notch, as in this piece on former alt-right devotee Caleb Cain and how Youtube helped indoctrinate him into that movement of hate.
We often hear about the mass extinction caused by anthropogenic climate change and other activities of man, but the death of one species can be a boon for another. Bullhead City, Arizona, has been overrun by caddisflies because man has gutted the populations of its predators by damming the Colorado River.
Joe Biden’s first Presidential run in 1988 was sunk in part by the revelation that he’d plagiarized parts of campaign speeches, as well as his habit of embellishing past accomplishments. The New York Times looks back at that disastrous campaign as Biden has begun to repeat his mistakes, such as plagiarizing parts of his climate change policy plan from other outlets.
Arizona cancer quack Colleen Huber, who tells patients she can cure cancer with baking soda and vitamin C, has lost her defamation suit against activist Britt Marie Hermes, a former naturopath who now works to expose the inherent fraud of ‘naturopathic medicine,’ which isn’t actually medicine at all. If you live in Arizona, perhaps consider asking your state attorney general to look into Ms. Huber’s business?
An exclusive Guardian report found that at least 200 quacks in the U.S. are using a sham therapy called ‘Cease’ on children, claiming it can prevent the measles and cure autism.
The Chicago journalist who has investigated R. Kelly’s sexual misconduct for nearly 20 years spoke to the BBC about his work and his new book on the singer, Soulless.
The S&P has performed much worse under Trump than it did under his predecessor. Populism and protectionism are not sound economic policies.
Sudan’s military toppled the country’s dictator this spring, but they’ve since cracked down on pro-democracy groups, arresting three opposition leaders this week and killing dozens of protesters in Khartoum. The coup leaders are relying on the same paramilitary forces that led the genocide in Darfur. Instability here is bad news for the region – and could make the country safe for Islamic terror groups again.
A Delaware man (originally from Queens) and former Army veteran went to York County, Pennsylvania, to try to clear up an outstanding warrant on a DUI charge. He ended up dead in a York jail, and his body was returned to the family missing several organs, including parts of his throat. The County tried to bury its response to the article by releasing a statement late on Friday afternoon.
The University of Alabama returned a $21.5 million gift from a donor who opposes the state’s anti-abortion law, even removing his name from the university’s law school. In the backwater swirling, there are some things that will never change.
The Guardian announced it will stop using inaccurate language to describe anti-abortion bills that supporters label, incorrectly, “heartbeat” bills. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists says this term is inaccurate; a fetus of six weeks has no heart or cardiovascular system.
I’ve noticed in a few hotels this year that the little plastic toiletry bottles have been replaced by larger refillable containers affixed to the shower walls. It’s part of a larger movement including legislation in California that banned them in hotels of more than 50 rooms.
California’s Assembly passed a bill that would make some workers for companies like Lyft and Uber employees, rather than independent contractors, giving them greater protection from labor abuses.
The Washington Post‘s Erik Wemple urged media outlets not to fall for Carlson’s bad-faith “praise” of part of Elizabeth Warren’s economic platform. And then Carlson went on air and attacked the “tyranny” of the metric system, the origin of which seems to be foreign to him.
Reading a lot of fiction improves social cognition and makes people more empathetic.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: alabama, arizona, chocolate, climate change, cost of food, frauds, links, pennsylvania, vaccines, white nationalism

→ June 4, 2019
→ By keith

Klawchat 6/4/19.

My recap of day one of the draft is up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: Do what I want, cause I can. Klawchat.

Max G.: Are the Astros being too smart for their own good?
Keith Law: Eh, that’s more judgmental than I’d like to be. I think they’ve chosen a philosophy of drafting that won’t work in the long run. If that’s true, they’ll realize it and change course.

Stanislav: Do you think that the Yankees will take a run at Jack Leiter, or that he’s dead set on Vandy?
Keith Law: Seems like that ship has sailed.

Bill G: Do you see Jarren Duran as a viable replacement for JBJ in the Boston OF? Thanks!
Keith Law: Too soon to say that. He’s a legit prospect, though.

Bob Pollard: What are your thoughts on the Cubs #1 pick, not so much his ability but was he selected in the appropriate spot?
Keith Law: I had him ranked 32nd in the class, and they took him 27th.

List-O-Mania!: On the spectrum of wildly overdrafted to hidden gem, where do you see Korey Lee ultimately falling? Might the Astros be thinking that his bat will play, and their emphasis on framing will get him far enough up the catching curve to stick there?
Keith Law: I think it’s a real reach. Wild overdraft.

alb2tead34: Ryan Garcia seemed like a guy with a lot of late helium. Was he a reach for the Rangers at 50, or is the high spin rate FB what teams are looking for now?
Keith Law: Not a reach. Taking a guy at 50 who wasn’t on the top 100 might be, but this wasn’t. Teams do love high spin rate FB. Also, the Rangers need pitching, and Garcia was one of the better college starters available at that pick.

Paul: If the Mets can sign their top three picks then I think they have had a great draft. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I agree. I do not believe they took Allen without knowing what it would cost to sign him. They’ve followed him up with two college seniors who’ll probably sign for $10K or something similar so they can pay Allen what he wants.
Keith Law: The Astros just took their first guy from my top 100 – Hunter Brown, a Division 2 starter who’s been up to 98 with an average slider. Good pick in that spot, but funny that that’s probably the highest-ranked guy they’ll take.

Aaron C.: You’ve called this the “worst pitching draft” in your 18 years involved with it. So, what year got dethroned, sir?
Keith Law: I’d have to think about that one; this is substantially worse than any I can remember. The 2006 draft felt that way at the time, but produced Kershaw and Lincecum.
Keith Law: Sorry, 2006 felt like a weak pitching draft, not as weak as this year’s though.

Adam D.: In your opinion, are Hunter Bishop’s swing and miss issues fixable? And based on that, how likely is he to reach his ceiling? Thanks for all the hard work!
Keith Law: Yes. I think guys who show this kind of progress in tightening their plate discipline are prime candidates to continue to improve. That’s the difference between Joey Gallo and Seuly Matias.

Simon: At what round of the draft do you usually first ask yourself, “Who?”
Keith Law: Until they said “a catcher from the University of California” I blanked on Lee. Once the college seniors start in round 4 I’m not even expecting to know half the names.

Tom: The Mariners have a 18 year old DH in AAA named Robert Perez who hasn’t played above the DSL. He’s hitting okay, but it seems like an absurd jump for someone without much hype. What is going on there? Are they trying to juice his value by juking the stats on age-relative-to-league models? Is he a sleeper superprospect?
Keith Law: No, just a temporary assignment. Certainly great to see that he’s not totally overwhelmed by the jump, though. I think most guys would be.

mibreli: How far outside your top 100 was Korey Lee? Also, is there any reason to believe that this year’s collective crop of catchers drafted in the first round can buck the historical trend of catchers drafted in the first round not panning out?
Keith Law: He wasn’t even a remote consideration; I don’t keep ranking guys privately but I would comfortably say he wasn’t in the next 50.

Simon: Do you ever play legacy type games, like Gloomhaven?
Keith Law: I play legacy games like Charterstone and Pandemic, but not RPGs like Gloomhaven.

Nate: Keith, it is very strange to see the White Sox drafting players high up on your board. Does this indicate a change in strategy or are you secretly advising Rick and Nick?
Keith Law: Definitely not advising them, and I don’t think they need my help either. Really strong draft for them so far.

G: Are the Pirates first two picks (Priester and Siani) expected to go over slot, or are all of their seeming under-slot selections of day 2 thus far saving up for 10th round and after guys?
Keith Law: Maybe both. I think Siani is over slot for sure.

Bret: I know you’re high on Alek Manoah. What is it that, you hope, will separate him from the other big, large SPs that haven’t reached their perceived potential?
Keith Law: Not sure which guys you might mean. Manoah’s well put together; that weight isn’t fat or just heft. His delivery works, he throws strikes, he has four pitches.

Sandy Eggo: Any signability concerns with Hudson Head? Or should the pick of Mears help with $$ a little bit for the Padres
Keith Law: Head will be over slot but 99% of the time teams do not draft players without knowing what it will cost to sign them and making sure they have that pool space. I doubt there have been more than a dozen players taken in the top ten rounds since the new system went into effect who went unsigned just because of money.

Dave: I’ve read that Tyler Baum’s stuff ticked up a few notches right before the draft? Did you hear that and what do you think about him?
Keith Law: That’s not right – what he did do late was hold the stuff deeper into games. I saw him at the ACC where he was still hitting 94-95 at the end of his outing, when earlier in the year he’d done so just for an inning or two up top.

Clay, Rutherford, NJ: Are the Cubs looking for 2019 bullpen help through the draft?
Keith Law: I believe they’re looking for 2020 bullpen help.

RJS: I’m sensing a theme among the Cubs picks so far, and I can’t say I’m disappointed. Fair to suggest they’ll try most of the pitchers taken through 5th round as starters or might McAvene stay in the pen and try to move up quickly that way? Thanks for the chats, KLaw.
Keith Law: McAvene has three pitches to start, but that does change his time frame and they may choose to move him faster as a reliever.

Dave: How should college baseball deal with pitcher overuse? Pitch counts? Appearance caps? Because we see yet more gross overuse again this postseason.
Keith Law: MLB should pull any support for college baseball until the NCAA agrees to abide by PitchSmart guidelines, including changing the draft rules to make players eligible at any time (after their freshman or sophomore years) unless the NCAA relents. MLB has all the leverage here.

Jeff: Do you think Soph elig Gabe Holt still goes today or is he going back to school?
Keith Law: I wonder if he told teams he didn’t want to sign. Obviously a top five rounds talent.

Sean: Yankees do a poor job drafting in these early rounds. Yes or no?
Keith Law: No. Liked the Sikkema pick a lot.

Eric: what power grade does Bleday have? can it transfer to MLB?
Keith Law: It’s plus and it will translate. He has exceptional hand/wrist strength.

Bradley: Love the James Beard pick for the White Sox on name alone. Outcome likely to be Terrance Gore? Billy Hamilton? Hopefully more?
Keith Law: Same org that turned Micker Adolfo from a workout phenom into an actual hitter. I give them a good chance here.

Greg: You seemed to like the Blue Jays’ first couple of picks. Does the addition of Robertson (who you ranked better than his draft position) make it a very successful first few picks?
Keith Law: Yep. Really like it so far.

Mike : Braves drafting looks off on paper. Is that your assessment? Have you heard anything on it so far?
Keith Law: Philip is the one pick i just do not understand. Not a day one guy, probably not a top three rounds guy.

JG: Did the Twins reach on Kavaco or is the potential worth the risk?
Keith Law: Both could be true, I think. There is plenty of potential there. I think there’s more hit tool risk than they do, obviously.

Brian: So are the Mets first 3 picks worth senior signs in rounds 4-10?
Keith Law: Yes.
Keith Law: Literally got the best HS pitching prospect in the draft – my rankings and MLB’s agree. Fangraphs had him behind Priester and I don’t have any dispute with that.

Rob : I ummm don’t understand the Padres draft after the first round. Regardless of the quality of their assessment it feel like they’re reaching for players they could’ve gotten later. thoughts?
Keith Law: I disagree. I think they may have gone under for Driscoll to help pay for Head.
Keith Law: #phrasing

Nate: When you say you feel like the Astros have chosen a draft philosophy you don’t think will work in the long run…is that tied into the big overhaul they’ve had with their scouting department in recent years?
Keith Law: You mean the elimination of their scouting department?

Simon: I know you quit beef, what are your thoughts on dairy milk alternatives? My infant son is allergic to dairy and soy, and we’ve been researching oat milk
Keith Law: Oat milk is extremely sweet, which has its pros and cons. I think cashew milk is my favorite all-purpose alternative, although it’s expensive (and should be).

Andy: Any more details on what caused teams to take Espino off their boards? Was this reflected in your rankings?
Keith Law: It was not reflected in my rankings because I heard it less than 24 hours before the draft. I would have moved him *way* down.

Chris: How fast can Baty move? Can he move up the ranks faster bc he’s already 19.5 or doesn’t matter?
Keith Law: I believe he can finish next year in high-A – that he’s strong enough and advanced enough as a hitter to do so. That would obviate the age concern.

Sean: I can’t find much, but some articles are suggesting that Conor Grammes (Xavier in Ohio) is hitting 98-100 MPH as a starting pitcher, sitting 94-97. How accurate is that?
Keith Law: He absolutely hit 100 mph in Arizona in February, but he can’t hit the broad side of a barn when he’s throwing that hard.

Kedelbro: Does Will Holland have any shot to get his swing back?
Keith Law: Yes.

Kevin: The Red Sox took Noah Song in the 4th round today. He’s from Navy with a 2 year commitment still. Is this just another guy who will get a 10k bonus?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s a $10K guy. The Red Sox must believe he’s going to be allowed to pitch, though, which isn’t really the history with Navy players.

Andrew Please: Dodgers seem to love drafting guys who strike out less than they walk. Is that something that is a bit overrated? If not, why aren’t other teams as interested in it?
Keith Law: Everyone’s interested in it, but many players who strike out less than they walk in college either 1) have no other real tools or 2) get there through passivity, because so few college pitchers can actually throw strikes consistently.

Sean: Anthony Volpe seems like he’s another SS the Yankees overdrafted. See; Cito Culver. Kyler Holder.
Keith Law: The Culver comp is the one that would scare me. The Yankees loved Culver’s makeup, and Volpe’s best tool appears to be his makeup (the real stuff – work ethic, instincts, etc.).

Dustin: Thanks for not dodging my abortion questions yesterday. Curious to know how you can justify your position that a child in the womb is not a human life? Science says it is. It’s life is dependent on another person, but so are all born children and many elderly.
Keith Law: You are either purposely misrepresenting the science, or refusing to understand it. That is a false analogy of epic proportions.

Jared: No question, just a comment that you should Periscope more often when you have the time. REALLY enjoyed last night’s and the ability to get so many questions answered.
Keith Law: Thank you, I’m glad you enjoyed it, but sorry I was so distracted by the broadcast. I tried to get the draft show on my iPad but MLB seemed to have that blocked (or I just couldn’t figure it out in time). That might have made it smoother.

Dave: I just realized today that the Astros whiffed on both Aiken and Appell and they still have this much talent. Still hard to belive that two 1/1s just never made it.
Keith Law: Well, Aiken became Bregman, so they really whiffed on just one, Appel, on whom the entire industry whiffed.

JR: Quintana a legitament power threat?
Keith Law: No. Better as a high-average/all-fields guy.

James: I’m curious, how do teams determine who are guys they can sign for under slot deals?
Keith Law: It’s a really weird, complex process where they ask the players how much money they want.

Benny from Boston: Jordan Groshans’ older brother Jaxx to Boston. Any family resemblance on the diamond?
Keith Law: No. Saw Jaxx in February, picked in the right spot, but he’s not Jordan (who has come out of the gate *really* strong).

Rob K: IDK, man. Trusting the Mets to do something rational when 1. their GM has no draft room experience and 2. they’re the Mets feels like a bad bet.
Keith Law: Unfair. Seems like the GM has let their amateur scouting department do their thing – and given that group’s track record, that’s the right move. Kelenic, Dunn, Alonso, Smith, Kay, Peterson, Vientos, Woods-Richardson, Szapucki – Tanous/Tremuta have drafted those guys.

mark: who’s has better speed, Xavier Edwards or CJ Abrams?
Keith Law: Abrams by quite a bit.

Brett: Seems like the twins were going for high upside high risk guys, Would you make Wallner a SP or RF?
Keith Law: He doesn’t want to pitch.

Max G.: Re: Astros draft philosophy; How would you define it?
Keith Law: 10011100101000100111001 11010001 1111010011101110100101001010.

Drew: What can we expect out of Haseley? Too soon for the call up?
Keith Law: I’m not buying this ‘breakout.’
Keith Law: Swing was awful when I saw him last year.

Tom Y: Do you think the yankees took Volpe with the idea that if he doesnt sign, its not the end of the word to have two picks and extra slot money in a better draft next year?
Keith Law: No. Teams don’t do that.

Matt: What did you think of Will Holland falling as far as he did?
Keith Law: I think Auburn bears some blame for this. Good value in that round though.

Brendan: What the hell are the Pirates doing? Seems like Gorski was a significant overdraft and they don’t have any track record of helping guys with swing and miss problems (e.g. Casey Hughston and Dylan Busby). Then today they take middling college relievers at 4 and 5. Talk some sense into me, please.
Keith Law: I think their draft was focused on the top two guys, who both were high-ceiling high school kids who have more polish than your typical upside plays.

Tom: Is Song signable for the Red Sox?
Keith Law: Are you asking if he’ll sign for a … never mind.

BigDaddeh: Are we waiting until the draft is over to get a Keuchel or Kimbrel signing?
Keith Law: No, they could sign now.

Matt: Where would Noah Song be on your top 100 if not for his two year navy commitment? First round talent being floated around by Red Sox twitter is too aggressive, right?
Keith Law: Absolutely not a first round talent. Seems like fan talk.

Mas: Hair notwithstanding, your mock drafts put Mel Kiper to shame. Your top 7 picks were all spot on. Kudos, draft expert!
Keith Law: Still annoyed I switched Texas from Jung to Manoah. I may have put too much of my own beliefs (Manoah was clearly the better pick) into that one.

Gus: Is there anything stopping a player that is playing in the CWS from quitting his team to go play for the team that drafted him? Therefor saving himself from getting injured or overused by his college manager who no longer cares about him after the CWS
Keith Law: Nothing, and I wish a player would do it.

BigDaddeh: 1% chance of Vaughn raking in AA this year and getting the call to replace Alonso for the Sox playoff push?
Keith Law: No.

nelson: there is so much information online these days about mlb prospects. it’s hard to tell what is informed and what is not. any tips?
Keith Law: The people who are paid to do this work full-time are reliable, in my opinion. Setting myself aside, the guys at MLB and Fangraphs and Baseball America are really the only sources I read and trust. I know those guys personally and while we differ in approach, we all take our responsibilities seriously and work hard to provide good, informed opinions and information.

Guest: Is jahmai Jones still a prospect? 2 straight years of struggles.
Keith Law: Yes, of course he’s still a prospect. He’s only 21.
Keith Law: He’s younger than Kody Hoese and just a few months older than Langeliers, Busch, Davidson, and Shewmake, but Jones is in AA.

Brian: When do you expect to start to get questions on whether or not a first round pick will sign? Father’s Day week? 4th of July week? Today? Yesterday?
Keith Law: Today. And I will pretty much ignore them all after this chat because nearly all drafted players in rounds 1-10 sign unless they flunk their postdraft physicals.

Wade: Would a team draft me in the first 10 rounds if I would sign for $1 so they could have $9,999 extra towards their bonus pool over a college senior or is the body/actual roster spot worth more than the money at that value?
Keith Law: MLB would void it and penalize the team.

Anik Patel: Thoughts on Blue Jays drafting Canadian talent?
Keith Law: Dasan Brown is legit. No issue taking him in that spot – he’s a real prospect and that wasn’t homerism (hoserism?).

JG: Is 3/$42 million too much for Kimbrel?
Keith Law: I’d give him 2/$30 million rather than the third year.

Todd: Your thoughts on the transition from aluminum to wood bats? Fiction or truth?
Keith Law: Is what fiction or truth?

BigDaddeh: Louisville guy pitching 30 pitches after throwing 95 days earlier. How bad?
Keith Law: Bad. Could have been much worse, though.

Beetlejuice: Reds with a low risk college arm to start then 3 projectable bats after that. Like what they’re doing thus far?
Keith Law: Loved it.

Tim: Where do you see Drake Fellows going? He has out pitched several of the other SEC arms off the board already
Keith Law: “Outpitched” doesn’t mean anything at all. Anyway, Fellowes went in the 6th after you submitted this.

Andy: Houston could have gotten their catcher with their second pick right? There’s no one you heard on the guy even after the first round right?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Nate: Did callihan’s lack of position hurt him more than you thought it would?
Keith Law: I think so, although I don’t know if he floated a big bonus demand.

Sean: The Dbacks seem to be drafting “short” hitters the past two years: Alek Thomas last year and Corbin Carroll and Glenallen Hill Jr. this year. Are they exploiting an inefficiency in the market?
Keith Law: Seems like it. Short but strong hands/wrists/forearms is good. Short and slight is not.

Aaron C.: Can you provide some general examples of draftees who had “questions about their hit tool” but figured it out in pro ball?
Keith Law: Matt Chapman is the most obvious contemporary example.

Gaga: What were your thoughts on Kendall Williams?
Keith Law: All my thoughts on day one guys are in the ESPN post linked above. I’ll have team by team recaps up Thursday and Friday.

John: Is Keoni Cavaco an under slot pick? Seems like he got picked higher than he was on your and your competitors boards.
Keith Law: Don’t think so – he had other suitors in the teens.

Paul: When trying to rank Song, how do you factor in his Navy commitment? 4th round risk worth taking for the Red Sox?
Keith Law: Yes 4th round is fine. Just object to people claiming he’s some secret first round talent.

Uli Jon: I know this is a draft chat, so understand if you don’t get to this. But looking for a 2 player game for long airplane flights this summer. Low to moderate with not too many pieces. My family has patience for Azul and Love Letters, something like that but plays better with two.
Keith Law: Jaipur, Lost Cities, Battle Line. Patchwork is great but don’t think you could play it on two tray tables.

Xander: Sox draft two SS after signing me to a long-term deal. Am I worried, or are they position-switch candidates?
Keith Law: These two things are not related in the least. You draft the best players.
Keith Law: Also, Cam Cannon isn’t a shortstop.

Pat: If 2018 draft was re-done today, would Mize still be 1-1? Safe to say Kelenic would be 2nd pick?
Keith Law: He might be … but several first rounders from last year are off to great pro starts. Bohm, Groshans, G Rodriguez, Gilbert.

Mark: Regarding you comment on Baty in yesterday’s chat. Please tell me you are aware of the epidemic that is the amount of parents holding their student-athletes back to repeat a grade strictly for athletic reasons? Not saying that is the case here, but if he repeated 7th or 8th grade then that would be why.
Keith Law: I am, but have no idea if that was the case for Baty, and I said on Twitter to someone asking that it’s really none of our business *why* he’s 19.5 at graduation.

Bob: Preller has taken a pitcher with the 1st pick every year as the Padres GM, thought for sure he’d do it again, especially with Lodolo on the board.
Keith Law: No, I knew they were taking one of the big 6 bats.
Keith Law: Right move in that spot.

BigDaddeh: Who are some big names to watch in the 11th round once teams can start taking some more long shots?
Keith Law: I think someone will take Leiter, Hampton, Stewart, etc. Just secure their rights in case they change their minds.

John: I hear you on the PitchSmart guidelines, but baseball also has some pretty vocal adherents (Verlander, Bauer) to a school of thought that rejects those guidelines.
Keith Law: Yeah those guys don’t actually run the league.

Fran: Will Bryson Stott stay at SS or move to 3B?
Keith Law: No doubt SS for me.

Andrew: Will Joe Palumbo make the mid season top 100 now that he is proving it on his comeback from TJ?
Keith Law: The healthy guys from my “just missed” list are probably all on the top 100 now … just not Dunning or Graterol, since they’re hurt.

Andy: I know it’s dead horse beating, but I wonder if the Mets wouldn’t be better served NOT spending 160 AAA ABs, so far this year, on a guy who can’t be a serviceable MLB OF.
Keith Law: You’d think so, and yet, here we are.

Alan: How much stock do you put on pedigree? Seems like having family who played in MLB boosts you up a few rounds.
Keith Law: It helps with some teams. I don’t think it makes a prospect better, but it’s more interesting for me as a writer.

mc90: If we can mix in board game questions, any suggestions on good 2 player games?
Keith Law: See above but if you don’t have a space limitation 7 Wonders Duel is pretty incredible.

Seth: Any strong opinions on the Michigan trio that got drafted in the first few rounds? It’s nice to see the alma mater have some baseball success
Keith Law: Couple of potential back-end starters there in Henry and Kaufffffmannnn.

Brad: Plesac a future #2? He looks really good
Keith Law: He’s good but I think the ceiling is below that.

Brian: RE: Tom Y’s question about Volpe, what stops a team from intentionally not signing a 1st round pick to be able to use that pick the next year?
Keith Law: The player would file a grievance and MLB would not grant the compensatory pick. Too many fans think they can outsmart the system as if teams and the league haven’t already thought about all of this.

Welch: I saw on the MLB Top 200 Draft Prospects article that they only have 1 kid from the state of Oklahoma. As a current resident, do you know who that is?
Keith Law: Bryce Osmond was the only Oklahoma kid on my top 100. Probably him.
Keith Law: Also, he’s the only missing Osmond sibling to make my list.
Keith Law: Man, someone has to play “One Bad Apple” as his walkup music.

Shaughn: With a prospect like Brooks Lee still on the board – do we assume he has a strong commitment or that the industry doesn’t have the same perceived value?
Keith Law: He’s made it clear he’s going to school to play for his dad.
Keith Law: Ask him how that worked out for Kyle Serrano.

LGM: Do any of these Mets senior signers stand out to you at all?
Keith Law: No. Senior signs are almost always org guys.

Philip: Long-time reader and major fan of your analysis. Quick question and not draft related, but if a team used older catchers in a tandem, let’s say 81 games each, would that create a better or similar outcome than paying an elite catcher? I’d think two catchers in their 30s could be refreshed from a lighter work load (thinking of Flowers and McCann), and be significantly cheaper than a Realmuto type of catcher.
Keith Law: Probably depends on the players. Some guys would be better with the days off, most wouldn’t, I think.

Sandy Eggo: Can we get a #FreeLuisUrias in the chat to appease #PadresTwitter
Keith Law: I want to be the president of that club.

John: If you were advising a teenager who is equally talented as a pitcher and as a position player, which would you tell him to focus on? Or would you try to have him go 2-way?
Keith Law: Two variables. What does he want to do, and what do teams value more highly? If the world says you’re a pitcher, then get on the mound, son.

Aaron C.: MLB Network’s draft coverage: all the talking! occasionally some draft picks!
Keith Law: I knew time dilation was real, but never experienced it until MLB Network took eleven minutes to get through a five-minute break.

Bill: Fiction: aluminum bats cannot transition to wood.
Keith Law: Well, no, that would be alchemy.

The Internet: WHY ISN’T YOUR 2020 MOCK DRAFT AVAILABLE YET?!!?!?!?!?!
Keith Law: Stop that.

Henry: Keith, just want to say thank you for all of the incredible amount you invested in the draft, including the late night ESPN team post which was excellent and informative.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I worked hard (and late) to make that a longer post this year, so fans of every team had something to read.

Brian: (insert joke about Keith having a short bias)
Keith Law: My bias is not short. It’s like a long, sharp sword.

Brian: Last week you didn’t seem to disagree with a guy who said clutch-ness isn’t a thing. But doesn’t that go against what psychology teaches us? Some people perform better under the most intense pressure than do others. Wouldn’t this apply to sports just like it does medicine, politics, law, etc?
Keith Law: I go with evidence. The evidence says that MLB players do not perform significantly differently in “clutch” situations. It is possible or even likely that players who wilt in those situations never reach the majors, since they face pressure when they’re being scouted and all the way up the minors. But there is no such thing as a “clutch hitter” in the majors, and if you think there is, well, come correct with some facts.

Chris: Just noticed that Hunter Bishop is still just 20y/o. Won’t turn 21 for 3 weeks. Does the fact that he played the entire year at 20 help his projection like Baty’s age hurt him?
Keith Law: Yes.

Tim : I am no scout but even to this amateur eye, Rutledge has one of the shortest arm deliveries I can recall ever seeing. Is this something to be concentrated about?
Keith Law: Teams were concerned about his short arm swing and lack of athleticism. On the other hand, he might have a 7 fastball and 7 slider.

Michael: How does Manoah compare to Mize?
Keith Law: I’m very high on Manoah but Mize is a potential #1 starter with two swing and miss pitches and plus command.
Keith Law: Mize is the best RHP prospect in the minors right now.

Bill: Is there anything to Kevin Newman’s improvement? I know you were high on him out of the draft
Keith Law: I’m chalking it up to the teamwide improvements from hitters now that they changed coaches & approach – don’t think they’re so keen on contact/going the other way as they were in years past.

Joe: On MLB radio today I heard an analyst mention that because of advanced training techniques, more young players will make it to the big leagues sooner. Basically, that much of the training that used to be done in the minors is now being done in high school and college. I was curious to hear your take on this.
Keith Law: False.

Howey: Last night Harold Reynolds said that Jackson Rutledge’s short arm action was probably fine because “catchers throw like that and who’s heard of a catcher getting Tommy John?” I’m still getting over how wrong that statement is
Keith Law: I heard half of that sentence and thought I’d misunderstood the context.
Keith Law: I mean, catchers do have Tommy John, not even that infrequently.

Jeff: Best guess for MLB ETA for Luis Robert?
Keith Law: I think he’ll be up this year. Why not? If he bumps to AAA, keeps hitting, don’t you call him up and see if he can make the 2020 OD roster? I would.
Keith Law: OK, time to start those recaps and maybe walk outside for a minute. I have some personal travel next week and may not chat at all, but I’ll shoot for a Periscope tomorrow during day 3. Recaps go up Thursday and Friday, one league each day, and I’ll look at the new team #1 prospects in a piece next week as well. Thank you as always for all of your questions and the kind words on my draft content this week!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ June 3, 2019
→ By keith

Klawchat 6/3/19.

Happy draft day! My latest mock is up for ESPN+ subscribers and I’m updating it throughout the day.

Keith Law: Play to get paid. It’s Klawchat.

PhillyJake: If the Pirates do indeed take Langeliers, will he make it to the majors before Cervelli’s next concussion? Seriously Cervelli should retire for his health. What is Langeliers’ guestimated arrival date?
Keith Law: I’d guess two years out. Defense is ready now. Still questions on the hit tool, but I think it’s reasonable to think he won’t race through the minors.

addoeh: Happy Klaw-smas! That would make late January’s prospect ranking release Klaw-nukah (because it is 8 days).
Keith Law: Can it be Klaw-purim, so then i get cookies?

Bill G: Thanks for all the work you do regarding the draft. How far would Adley drop if he was a 1B instead of a catcher? The bat still plays? Thanks!
Keith Law: Bat plays but he’s no longer 1-1; behind Vaughn and Bleday at least.

Frank Viola: I’m always curious where top international guys would slot in the draft, playing off of that thought – where would you *hypothetically* slot a player like Jasson Dominguez if int. players were draft eligible?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t. He’s 15 (maybe he turned 16 already) and you can’t compare him apples to apples to draft prospects. Unless you’re talking an Ohtani type, there’s no way the top J2 kid in the typical class would even be a first rounder when stacked up against kids who are 17-18 (HS) or 21 (college).
Keith Law: And Dominguez isn’t even a Vlad Jr or Wander Franco.

duhamell: Mason Janvrin at the University of Central Missouri (DII) is having a great season. Hearing lots of rumors here in Warrensburg, but is there any buzz on him?
Keith Law: Zero. D2 or lower bats have an enormous hill to climb to be taken seriously. There’s a kid at Shepherd University (also D2) named Brenton Doyle who got some early buzz because he also has tools, but his entire team is hitting .338/.434/.574.

alex: Could A. Vaughan play 3B credibly (Elias allegedly saw him take grounders there) if taken by the Os ? He apparently has a decent arm (he pitched in his freshman or sophomore year). Thanks
Keith Law: I wrote that the O’s looked at him at 3b. I doubt he can do it but I think it’s worth exploring.

J.P.: Chances Toglia’s name goes off the board in the first? If not, what’s his floor?
Keith Law: Very close to 0% chance.

Ben: Is Misner this draft’s biggest wildcard? How confident are you in his tools?
Keith Law: Bigger wildcards for me are kids like Leiter, Volpe, etc., who may be completely unsignable.

Larry: Are the Indians buyers, sellers or (more or less) “holders” in 2019? I still think they have a shot at a playoff spot, but certainly not bet the house on it.
Keith Law: Should be buyers, but they should have been buyers this winter and weren’t.

Ben: It’s Draft Day — 2020. Who are the top five names to go off the board?
Keith Law: No idea. Let’s survive this year first.

Niel: What is driving the Rangers’ move away from their previous tool-centric draft approach?
Keith Law: I speculated that they may be unhappy with some recent results from toolsy but raw picks high in the draft.

Jim: Not draft related, but I’m curious why there are no southpaw side-armers?
Keith Law: Of course there are.

Spencer: Have you had a chance to scout any of the international players that may be signing this summer? Who’s the cream of the crop?
Keith Law: I don’t cover that market. Jesse Sanchez at MLB does a tremendous job.

Jim: Predict for us – how many Day One guys won’t sign?
Keith Law: Figure two or three will fail their post-draft physicals. Last year we had two first rounders decline to sign for financial reasons – Ginn and McClain – but I think teams will be more conservative in the first round as a result.

Jim: Which of the Siani’s are you higher on? Does Sammy go off the board tonight?
Keith Law: Higher on Sammy, but I hear he may want first-round money, so that could push him to day two.

Mark: How is Brett Baty already 19.5 but still in high school?
Keith Law: I don’t know the specifics, but a kid could have to repeat a year for academic or medical reasons, or perhaps have been enrolled a year later for kindergarten because the parents were concerned he wasn’t ready.

Mark: If Baltimore does not take Rutchman or Witt, who would KC pick? Is there any way in hell Rutchman could fall to the Pads?
Keith Law: I think they’d take Rutschman. They don’t take Vaughn at 2; Bleday is option C, although when you pick 2 option C is sort of silly. There is no way Rutschman gets to the Padres.

Mark: Do you think the Pads could take Lodolo at 6 or are they going to take one of the top 6 hitters?
Keith Law: I’m still betting they take one of the big six.

Red: Just read Smart Baseball, I enjoyed thoroughly enjoyed your book. I imagine a lot of what MLB teams draft on is raw ability. But in your experience, do you find that clubs will split hairs and analyze college/high school players with advanced stats as well? Thanks, I’ll hang up and listen
Keith Law: Most clubs do some of both; the difference is in the balance between the two.

JAS: Is it possible that Espino gets to Houston, and they manage to harness his stuff and improve his mechanics and pitch selection to turn him into the best pitcher in this draft when we look back in 5 years?
Keith Law: It’s possible he gets to Houston, likely they pass on him, and I’d say basically no chance he ends up the best pitcher from this draft.

matt: Bishop/Kirby/Rutledge all feel like pretty good scenarios for the Phillies, and is the sense you’re getting that at least one will fall to them? Not that they would absolutely take one.
Keith Law: I will revise the mock after we’re done here, but they’re not taking Bishop (or the other two). I do think the Phils will get their choice of some pretty good options … Baty, Jung, Langeliers, Carroll if he slips, Wilson. I believe they like Henderson, but I’m lighter on him than the industry, I guess.

BigDaddeh: How much money do you think Shea Langeliers made yesterday?
Keith Law: None.

bombas: do you see the twins cutting a deal under slot?
Keith Law: I know they’ve considered it (why not?) but I think they go slot for Stott or Langeliers.

Esteban: Is Jack Leiter a first rounder if he was 100% certain to sign slot?
Keith Law: IMO, hell yes.

Darryl: How early do you think LHP Miller from Stanford goes? Anyone else likely to be drafted in the early rounds from the Farm?
Keith Law: Miller today. Second round. Others from Stanford are below that.

Adam: Has MLB considered moving the draft until after the college postseason? Not necessarily for additional evaluation (I believe you’ve mentioned the post season and CWS is not the best for that), but to give teams a chance to see what pitchers get abused during this period. Maybe if enough pitchers drop in draft position as a result, colleges, or at least the players, would take notice.
Keith Law: They have; the tradeoff is that it screws up all of short-season baseball, plus the summer leagues when teams scout for next year.

Joe: Pick outside the top ten you feel most confident about?
Keith Law: Hm. 11, 12, 17, 23, 24 … but any or all of those could be thrown off by a player slipping/someone up top cutting an under-slot deal.

Sean: How does the top 5 of this draft compare to recent years?
Keith Law: I think it’s a little weaker.

Adam: Knowing what we know now about Carter Stewart do the Braves have a chance to get a comparable talent?
Keith Law: If they take Carroll, as I had in my mock (if Manoah goes 8, Atlanta would choose between Carroll and Langeliers), they’re getting the #4 player on my board. Stewart, pre-injury etc., was my #2 player. So it’s not too far off.

Andrew V: Hey Keith, love all the work you do around draft time. What caused Bishop to fall a few spots from earlier mocks?
Keith Law: Teams concerned about in-conference performance and a decline in his throwing the last few weeks.

fact or fiction?: I saw Abrams mocked at #10 to the Giants, what are the chances he falls that far?
Keith Law: I don’t believe they’d consider him at all, but he could slip to the teens if the Padres don’t take him (which presumes 1-5 are chalk).

Bill: Hi Keith, thanks as always for the chats. They are my favorite shirking activity each week. Out of curiosity during your time in Toronto, did you have any role to play during the actual draft or were all picks and decision making up to the scouting directors, GM or other management at that point?
Keith Law: I was in the discussions every year but I never made any picks or really any decisions at all. Those were up to Ricciardi and Buckley/Lalonde (the scouting directors).

Jerome: Will you be doing a live video of the draft like last year?
Keith Law: Yes so enough of you asked for it that I’ll do a live Periscope chat (on twitter) starting at 7.

Jim: Best name in the draft?
Keith Law: That has to be Mississippi prep outfielder James Beard. They named a whole award after him!

Daniel: After you ranked him in the top 80, do you know of any teams in on Glenallen Hill Jr. tonight or do you expect him to fall to day 2?
Keith Law: He’s on the 2nd/3rd round bubble.

Ben: Do you think Miami has a lot more variability in what they do at 4 than most people are projecting? They’ve obviously shown a ton of interest in Bleday, but they’re always liable to something crazy or stupid. If so, the whole draft would be turned on its head
Keith Law: I hear a few other names but I am sticking with Bleday.

JR: I am surpised Hunter Bishop isnt being mocked to the Tigers at 5? Is that a reach?
Keith Law: That is a reach, given who else would be there.

Josh: Keith, have you gotten a chance to watch Fleabag yet?
Keith Law: Yes, halfway through S2. The best thing about the whole show is that the guy she sleeps with at the start of episode 1, who comes back in several more episodes, is only credited as “Arsehole Guy.”

Fake Jeremy Sowers: What do you think of JJ Bleday’s defense? I’m always wary of drafting someone on the lower end of the defensive spectrum.
Keith Law: Average to 55.

Gnubs: What’s with the decline in the draft success of the Nats front office? Just picking later in the draft? That didn’t seem to matter before as they picked up later round guys than just Strasburg and Harper.
Keith Law: Have they fared poorly? A few years ago they picked at the end of the first/sandwich and got Luzardo and Kieboom.

Kyle: Do you see any chance Mizzou’s T.J. Sikkema goes in the 1st round? Do you think there’s a chance he slips past Day 1?
Keith Law: Funny, that’s my stealth guy who might just sneak into the late first … I don’t think a lot of teams are on him, but there are clearly a few quietly considering him in the 25-40 range. If you want a college starter, he’s established himself as a legit option after the most famous tier is gone.

Brian: Hey Keith, thanks for doing this chat today. Do you think Jung would be a big overreach for SF at #10? I know you have him rated lower on your top 100.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t take him over the other available options there.

Devon: A few mocks and some chatter suggests that Abrams might be falling a bit? Any insight into why? Just clubs liking the other guys better / cutting deals to go under-slot?
Keith Law: Every scenario I think has a chance to happen right now is chalk 1-6 – the same six guys in different orders. That’s most likely the three college bats in the top 4, Witt 2, Greene 5, which would mean Abrams 6. If someone ahead of San Diego reaches down at all – e.g., the Tigers take Lodolo – then Abrams could slip and I don’t think teams behind San Diego are necessarily planning to take him.

Soto: If you had personally had a choice between Rutledge, Manoah, and Thompson…..who would you pick?
Keith Law: My Big Board ranking of the top 100 prospects in the class answers any of those questions. That’s my personal ‘pref’ list.

Kai: Any idea if it would take well over slot to get Brooks Lee to go pro instead of playing for his dad at Cal Poly?
Keith Law: He’s going to school. I have him ranked on talent, but I’m told he’s going to school, period.

Guest: Keith have you ever been asked to make an appearance on the draft? Maybe in Harold Reynolds role? (Kidding, kind of). If they did ask would you do it?
Keith Law: Of course I would, but because of where I work, it’s unlikely. Mayo and I wanted to do a podcast together about the draft but the powers that be scuttled it.

El Zilcho: How much do you think Stinson will ask for?
Keith Law: Off my top 100 entirely. He can’t really ask for anything more than slot wherever he’s taken given the spring he had. If he wants day one money he’ll have to get his fastball back.

Nick: You seem to be the most optimistic on Corbin Carroll’s power outlook. How many homers do you see him hitting annually?
Keith Law: He’s a 20+ guy for me. Maybe more. Alex Bregman has 48 homers since the start of 2018; I think Carroll has comparable hand strength.

Brian: Hey Keith, if the Giants take Jung at 10, would it likely be an under slot deal?
Keith Law: No.

Kyle: You’ve seen the “Rutschman is the best prospect since Harper” stuff, would he make your top-five draft prospects since 2010?
Keith Law: He might, but no way is he the best draft prospect since Harper. I hate that kind of hyperbole.

Belliard : Is Atlanta/Langeliers buzz increasing or staying steady?
Keith Law: I mentioned him in the mock – him or Carroll, given what I projected 1-8.

Jerome: Do you see the D-Backs drafting Leiter with one of their bazillion picks?
Keith Law: No.

Jim: Will you be doing one more mock before 7pm?
Keith Law: I’ll just keep updating the one that’s already up (I updated it once, I have more stuff to add after this chat).

Feejus: Enjoyed Smart Baseball as well as Mr. Brian Kenny’s “Ahead of the Curve
Keith Law: Thank you! Check out Russell Carleton’s The Shift.

Ignatius Reilly : Rece Hinds profile sounds similar to that of Joey Gallo, the best Rangers first round pick in the Daniels era — could they go back to the well with Hinds at 41/50, or do you think he’s off the board then
Keith Law: Hinds isn’t Gallo. Gallo is a way better athlete, for starters.

Pat: Someone on MLBN just said that Adley and Witt are the best 1-2 he’s ever seen. Why does the crazy train seem to be firing on all cylinders this year? I don’t see how it’s helpful to speaking hyperbolically about these players. Is there a ratings/click strategy to some of this, perhaps? All it does in my opinion is create unrealistic expectations for the fans (So Adley will be a “bust” if he isn’t Bench, and Witt will be a “bust” if he isn’t A-Rod).
Keith Law: Yeah, I hate that … don’t market the draft by making every draft class into the best ever, because people will catch on and just stop listening. Talk about these players as they are.

Jessica: Hi, Keith! Huge fan! How much stock are you putting in the recent buzz that the Royals may now go with Bleday? What are the chances that Bleday falls to the Tigers?
Keith Law: I don’t have Bleday getting past 4, and I know he’s essentially the third option for KC. If, say, Baltimore took Witt (I doubt it) and KC had some concern over Rutschman’s medicals (unlikely), then they could take Bleday.

Jeff: Any chance of the underslot deal for Baty at 3 or 8?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard any real rumors to that effect, just twitter bullshit.
Keith Law: I like Baty a lot but hoo boy, passing on Vaughn at 3 for him?

RJ: ESPN homepage has a link to a Mock 3.1, but it’s time-stamped 7:05 a.m. I assume that’s still 3.0?
Keith Law: No, that’s 3.1 Ignore the timestamps.

Dusty: Can you clarify something? I was under the impression that if Atlanta fails to sign the #9 pick this year, that they would not receive a pick next year (since that pick was already compensation for Stewart from 2018). From what I’ve read today, I may have been mistaken. Do you know for sure what the rule is?
Keith Law: You are mistaken – Atlanta’s pick for Stewart, Arizona’s pick for McClain, and the Dodgers’ pick for Ginn are all protected, so if they don’t sign their picks this year, it rolls one more year. Next year’s compensatory picks would be unprotected.

Jeff: What round range do you expect Zach Huffins, Dalton Rushing, Quin Cotton, & Gabe Holt. Thank you!
Keith Law: Holt in the third; Cotton in the 4th, Huffins maybe 5th-8th (elite runner, not that advanced otherwise), no intel on Rushing.

Dallas: Maybe Langeliers gets a boost from that performance, Garrett Richards was helped in his last college outing by striking out 18 guys after putting up a 5.00 era during regular season.
Keith Law: He wasn’t, though. The Angels were already on him; it’s not like he suddenly threw harder or had a new pitch.

Sean: Did you make it up to see Siani this year? Draft position roughly where you had him ranked?
Keith Law: I saw him, but I don’t think my ranking reflects where he’ll go, since he could want more money than that.

Elliott: Who has the highest scouted tool in the draft? Vaughn’s power?
Keith Law: Greg Jones’ speed.

Andrew: Do you think Shewmake can stay at SS?
Keith Law: I do not.

Bob: Do you think Reds are in on H. Bishop or B. Stott ? Seem to prefer college hitters but not sure if they would value them over Lodolo/Manoah. Thanks
Keith Law: Neither.

Michael: What’s the logic behind JUCO players being eligible right away and others having to play three years?
Keith Law: Protecting college baseball. Why MLB would protect college baseball is beyond me – we still have coaches overusing pitchers and trying to get prospects to matriculate early so they skip the draft.

Mas: Which is more accurate – Keith Law is the Mel Kiper of baseball, or is Mel Kiper the Keith Law of football?
Keith Law: It depends on which of us you think has better hair.

Chuck: I’ve heard comps to Alex Kirilloff fair for Riley Greene. Fair or not?
Keith Law: I do hear huge praise for Greene’s hit tool.

Jeff: Keith – Any updates on players that could fall that LA could scoop up as they’ve done in the past (hopefully this time more Buehler than Kendall)?
Keith Law: This was a bit of why I think they’re a fit for Misner … huge tools, top ten type, who fell on some performance concerns that the Dodgers might think they can fix.

Fake Jeremy Sowers: What are you hearing on Drake Fellows? Top starter for Vanderbilt this year, but kind of an odd year (strong K rate, but 4.34 ERA).
Keith Law: I think he’s a fourth-fifth rounder.
Keith Law: It’s not huge stuff.

Kedelbro: Is Wilson to Twins the backup plan if Stott/Langeliers unavailable?
Keith Law: Yeah, I think that’s about right.

Matt: What do you think is the ceiling for Greg Jones?
Keith Law: He’s more likely a CF than a SS for me, and I really question the hit tool, but it is legitimately game-changing speed, like Billy Hamilton.

A: I don’t understand what “chalk” means in the way you’ve been using it for the top of the draft. Help?
Keith Law: The predicted guys – nobody goes way off the board.

Cole: Where should this ASU student expect Alec Marsh to be picked this year?
Keith Law: Third to fourth round?
Keith Law: Less certain.

Jeff: Do you think only 4 players at the draft hurts the views and buildup at all? Would getting more players not still playing bring more buzz?
Keith Law: It would help to get more guys there, but the timing sucks for it, and at least one of the guys going to Secaucus isn’t going in the first round and might not go at all tonight. That’s not good.
Keith Law: MLBN is in a tough spot.

Jason: You have Carroll at #4 on your list, but you (and the other respectable mock drafters) all have him making it at least to the Braves at #9. What do you see in him that puts him above several of the others in the seeming consensus top 6?
Keith Law: He’s getting crushed for his height and I don’t think it matters.

Bill: Where would Bo Gentry rank in this draft?
Keith Law: He’s in strong consideration at the #2 pick, if Boston doesn’t trade the #1.

Denise: Do you see the mets going for a prep bat or leiter besides all the other pitchers mocked to them?
Keith Law: Not in the first round.

Alex: Any chance anyone meets Tre Fletcher’s number, or is he going to Vandy?
Keith Law: I feel like he’s going to school … it only takes one team, of course, but he seemed to want a big number, and he’s raw, and he hasn’t been easy to see (Maine HS baseball isn’t exactly the easiest to scout).

Curious Reader: Will you be reading Ben Lindbergh’s book “The MVP Machine” coming out tomorrow? I know you Ben has cited you in his works before – were you interviewed for this book?
Keith Law: I have a copy but haven’t read it.

JR: Any chance the Mets can find another Jarred Kelenic like player this year, but not trade him months later for pennies on the dollar (as a Mets fan, that’s going to hurt a long time)
Keith Law: That should hurt, because it was obviously a bad deal the day they did it. The new GM didn’t understand the market value Kelenic had at that moment, and got too little in return for him and Dunn.

BullpenHelp: Thanks for the chat KLaw

Where do you see UConn closer Jacob Wallace being drafted?
Keith Law: I have heard he could go third or fourth but I’d bet after the fifth myself. Straight reliever.

Denise: I have heard that the college pitching crop is the worst in a long time, do you think this is so?
Keith Law: Absolutely. The worst I’ve ever covered/been involved in, and this is my 18th draft.

Jerome: Does your Top 100 account for signability also? I.e. Are some players lower on your board do to their college commitments?
Keith Law: No. I don’t get that info on all players, and sometimes I don’t know if the numbers I hear are real or just smokescreens, so I ignore them.

Nate: Last year the Jays surprised some people by going down the draft board a bit and snagging Jordan Groshans, a pick that (so far) seems to have worked out decently. Any chance they do something like that again and anyone like Groshans they could target? Thanks
Keith Law: Pick looks great right now – he was the lowest-ranked first rounder last year, I think? – but I only hear them on college arms, including Rutledge.
Keith Law: If Manoah is there, I would take him, but I’ve heard they have a very split camp on whether he’s a starter in the long term.

Jscott022: UVa is normally a hotbed for draft talent is there anyone out of Virginia going in the early rounds of the draft this year?
Keith Law: Tanner Morris could go in the third; good hitter without a position. I didn’t put him on my top 100 so I have him as more of a fourth-fifth round talent.

Andy: I wish Carter Stewart luck, but the thought process has been asked about college basketball. Why don’t high school kids go overseas and get paid to play, then come back and get drafted by the NBA. The answer is, because going to a new culture is tough for anyone, especially an 18 year old away from home for the first time, and it’s really fucking hard to play against adults doing it professionally. So again, I hope that lots of kids have huge success in Japan and scuttlebutt the MLB draft, but I won’t get my hopes up.
Keith Law: I agree with everything you said here – and because of the CBA, Stewart would be under the international cap system until he’s 25, so he’d have to be there for six seasons.

Nate: Do you see a team going for a reliever tonight and getting the m up to the majors this year?
Keith Law: No. That’s rarely worked.

Jon: Keith, do you see any future “Aces” in this years draft? Thank you and Happy Draft day!!
Keith Law: I don’t, actually, which is also part of why it feels like a bad pitching draft.

Jakob: Ever read any of Neal Stephenson’s books?
Keith Law: Yes, Snow Crash and the Diamond Age. Not a huge fan.

Collin: What’s the word on Brennan Malone’s landing spots? What’s his range tonight in your opinion?
Keith Law: Seems like something caused teams to steer away from him lately, so he might get to the 30s.

Sriram: Thanks for all the work. The Top 100 shows your rankings – but where do you think the major breakpoints are in your rankings, where you think the tiers are among the prospects.
Keith Law: The big one I’ve highlighted is that I think Vaughn is close to Rutschman, and there’s a breakpoint right after him, before the HS crop. That seems to put me at odds with my colleagues at MLB or Fangraphs.

Collin: Is Jerrion Ealy in play for anyone in the first round? How signable is he based on what you’ve heard?
Keith Law: No, not even close to first round. He’s not very good, and he’s probably going to play football.

Roger: If Abrams does slide into the teens/middle of the first round would it be because most of those teams don’t view him as the top prospect on the board? Or possibly because they’ve already done so much work on other players not really realizing he’d be available?
Keith Law: This is a great question for which I don’t have a great answer, but my instinct is that the second issue is bigger than folks want to admit. If you didn’t really do the work on Abrams, and you have a player or small set of players on whom you did all the work (not just scouting but medicals and meetings and psych tests or whatever) who will be there, do you just say “fuck it!” and take Abrams, or stick with your process? I would probably do the latter unless it were someone who was such a no-doubter like Vaughn.

Nate (Seattle): How many drafted players would be in a mid-season top 50 prospect list?
Keith Law: We’ll see in a month, but I’d guess 5-7. We’ve had a lot of graduations from the pro top 100 already.

JD: What’s the knock on Jung in your opinion? Power?
Keith Law: Yes.

Bill: Do teams legitimately have 1200+ person big boards or are they virtually picking names out of a hat at a certain point?
Keith Law: No, more like 500-600 names. There will be picks on day two where other teams might not even have magnets for those players (on their boards).

Steve: Are you watching Good Omens after the draft? Episode 1 was very solid.
Keith Law: Yes, I saved it for after the draft and after I finish Fleabag. Also still working through Doctor Who … maybe they’ll let a Dalek announce one of the picks in the second round tonight?

Nicholas: Please correct me if I am off-base here, but I normally wouldn’t expect you to rank someone like Vaughn (college RH first baseman) as high as you have him. So the bat is really that good?
Keith Law: It’s really that good, and who in this class might be better, especially once you consider the certainty/proximity of a college position player over a high school player?

Josh: What is the best comp for Vaughn, upside-wise?
Keith Law: I have said a few times I think his swing reminds me of Goldschmidt’s, and the profile overall reminds me of Hoskins’, just in a shorter package.

Andrew: Do any of the three, Goss, Thompson or Wolf make it to Texas A&M?
Keith Law: Matt Thompson might. The others don’t.

Jay: Any chance the A’s take Brooks Lee?
Keith Law: No.

Joe: How do you respond to the claims that Rutschman’s bat is better than Vaughn’s because Adley put up better stats in the same conference?
Keith Law: That’s pretty lazy.

Brian: Is the draft “fun” for you, or is it “work”?
Keith Law: Both of these things can be true at the same time, you know.
Keith Law: OK, I’m going to wrap this up now so I can revise the mock a little (and get a few minutes with my daughter since she’s about to come home from school). I’ll do the live Periscope at 7 pm ET through Twitter, then I’ll write up a day one recap/analysis tonight. Tomorrow’s plan: A YouTube video where I discuss day one with Jeff Passan; a chat in the afternoon, probably at 2 pm. Then I’ll start working up team by team recaps. Thank you all for reading and for all your questions – enjoy the draft!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ June 2, 2019
→ By keith

Music update, May 2019.

Huge month for new music, boosted by the presence of five Fridays (the day most new music appears online now). I’ve tried to organize the playlist a little by genre, so the two rap songs and five metal songs are towards the end if you don’t share my interest in those styles. If you can’t access the playlist widget below you can go directly to the Spotify link.

Of Monsters and Men – Alligator. The Icelandic stars will release their third album, Fever Dream, on July 26th, their first new album since 2015. This song seems to signal a more rock-oriented and lusher sound, which would be a welcome shift after their last album, Beneath the Skin, which was very good but more sedate.

WOOZE – I’ll Have What She’s Having. So I added this track to my running playlist before realizing that WOOZE is half of the band Screaming Peaches, previously known as Movie, who appeared at #31 on my top 100 songs of 2014 with “Mr. Fist.” This song and WOOZE’s entire EP is more bouncy, flamboyant, faintly ridiculous pop goodness.

The Ninth Wave – First Encounters. A Glaswegian quartet with members who sound like they came straight out of the same post-punk, synth-heavy new wave movement that gave us Joy Division, The Cure, or Heaven 17.

whenyoung – The Others. This Irish trio’s debut album, Reasons to Dream, dropped on May 24th, featuring this track and the single “Future,” albeit none of the tracks from their 2018 EP. I really like Aiofe Power’s voice (and accent) regardless of song style or tempo, but they’re never getting away from Cranberries comparisons with her singing.

The Mysterines – Gasoline. This new post-punk trio is led by singer-guitarist Lia Metcalfe, whose voice is snarling and captivating, especially on the earworm chorus “I just love to hate you.”

Johnny Hostile feat. Jehnny Beth – Let It Out. Johnny Hostile is a music producer who produced the Savages’ two albums to date; Savages singer Jehnny Beth is Hostile’s partner, and the two collaborated to score an upcoming documentary on Chelsea Manning called Chelsea XY. This is the lead single from the soundtrack, a dark atmospheric number that also shows another side of Beth’s vocals.

Holly Herndon – Frontier. Herndon is a musician and “sound artist” who co-created an AI program called Spawn to help write and record her new album Proto. Her statement on the record said that she “assembled a contemporary ensemble of vocalists, developers and an inhuman intelligence housed in a DIY souped-up gaming PC to create a record that encompasses live vocal processing and timeless folk singing, and places an emphasis on alien song craft and new forms of communion.” You go parse that sentence while I move on to the next track.

black midi – Talking Heads. Black MIDI is a weird subgenre of online music where the MIDI files in question contain so many notes that, if you displayed it on sheet music it would be almost solid black, meaning it’s impossible for a human to play. The band black midi don’t go to those extreme, but these four British lads – they look like teenagers – have turned out some fascinating, difficult, experimental music that seems to draw upon math rock as well as art-punk icons like Television and Suicide.

Phantom Planet – BALISONG. They’re back, sans Jason Silverman, although I don’t think their sound has changed all that much even with the hiatus.

Cœur De Pirate – Ne m’appelle pas. It’s been less than a year since her last album, but Béatrice Martin just dropped the very Europop-style new single, along with an inventive video that also shows a more playful side of her than her prior musical output ever suggested.

Charly Bliss – Young Enough. I don’t do a lot of straight pop on these playlists, but the title track from this Brooklyn band’s second album is a strong, smart, and unusually long pop song that I think is a harbinger that they’re going to break out this summer.

Hatchie – Obsessed. More dream-pop goodness from Hatchie, whose debut album Keepsake comes out on June 21st.

Joy Williams – When Creation Was Young. Williams’ second solo album since the end of The Civil Wars, Front Porch, came out on May 3rd. “Canary” remains my top track from this album, although this is a solid second.

The National – Rylan. The National’s latest album, I Am Easy to Find, feels like a huge stylistic departure for the band – you can certainly hear singer Matt Berninger better than before, but he’s also no longer the gravitational singularity at the heart of every song. This is one of the more conventional tracks on the record, but I think it takes the kind of melody the National have done and pairs it with vocals that no longer detract from the music.

The Raconteurs – Help Me Stranger. Jack White’s side projects, at their best, serve as reminders of what a magnetic guitarist he can be.

YONAKA – Don’t Wait ‘Til Tomorrow. I’ve had a handful of YONAKA songs on playlists the last few years, with “Creature” and “Teach Me to Fight” on my top 100 songs of 2018 and “Wouldn’t Wanna Be Ya” on my top 100 of 2017, but their debut album, Don’t Wait ‘Til Tomorrow, just came out on Friday, with this title track and “Creature” both on the record. Their sound has matured even over the two years since I first heard of them, although lead singer Theresa Jarvis’ strong vocals are still the centerpiece.

Imperial Teen – We Do What We Do Best. I had no idea Imperial Teen, which features Faith No More keyboardist Roddy Bottum on lead vocals and guitar, was still active after its brief ’90s peak with “You’re One” and “Yoo Hoo,” but they have a new single out, their first since 2012, and it sounds like it could have come from 1996’s Seasick.

Sleater-Kinney – Hurry On Home. We’re just not going to talk about the cover photo.

Safer – Good Things. Mattie Safer, a founding member of The Rapture who left that group in 2009, has a new band under his surname, with this first single more rock-tinged but still in the dance/funk vein that his other projects have also incorporated.

Lower Dens – Young Republicans. The Baltimore indie-pop duo are back with a rather unsubtle commentary on modern American politics.

The Amazons – End Of Wonder. The British quartet’s latest album, Future Dust, came out on May 24th, and features more of the muscular guitar-driven sound that they had on previous singles like “Black Magic” but didn’t hold through entire albums.

White Reaper – Might Be Right. White Reaper just signed to Elektra Records and released this new single. There’s no word of a new album, although with a heavy summer touring schedule, there’s probably one coming.

The Hives – I’m Alive. The Hives have released just one album in the last dozen years, 2012’s Lex Hives, but they’re back together – without longtime bassist Dr. Matt Destruction – with this new single. It’s not “Hate to Say I Told You So” or even “Walk Idiot Walk,” but it’s promising.

Wu-Tang Clan – Seen a Lot of Things (feat. Ghostface Killah, Raekwon & Harley). The Killer Bees released an EP to go along with the four-part Showtime documentary on the group, Of Mics and Men; this is the strongest track on the record.

Flying Lotus feat. Anderson .Paak – More. Flying Lotus isn’t really my jam, but I do like Anderson .Paak’s voice, and this is the best track from either of their new albums, which both came out within the last eight weeks.

Sky Valley Mistress – You Got Nothin’. This new British group headed by Kayley Davies gets comps to Led Zeppelin, but I don’t think that’s apt for this song, which is bluesy but in more of a bar-band sense than Zeppelin’s progressive reworking of blues classics.

Black Mountain – Licensed to Drive. Black Mountain go a little heavier than their normal psychedelic-rock here with a dark, metal riff driving (pun intended) this intricate track from their latest album, Destroyer, which came out on May 24th.

Paladin – Awakening. A new band from Atlanta who are producing unapologetically old sounds – this is dead-on 1980s classic thrash in the vein of Flotsam and Jetsam, Vio-lence, or early Testament.

Death Angel – The Pack. Speaking of which, these Bay Area thrash icons seem utterly unapologetic that their sound hasn’t changed in thirty years, and I’m here for it. Humanicide, their ninth full-length, dropped on Friday.

Sabaton – Fields of Verdun. I do like the song, but there’s no way I can hear this chorus as anything other than “feels overdone.”

Destruction – Born To Perish. One of the leaders of the Teutonic thrash scene, Destruction have been at it since 1982, but this song sounds remarkably fresh – it’d fit right in with their ’80s peak, or with the best stuff from their German compatriots Kreator.

Memoriam – Undefeated. I thought this was going to be a one-off project – the band’s name was a tribute to Martin Kearns, the late drummer of British death metal icons Bolt Thrower – but they’re about to release their third album in as many years. Karl Willets (also of Bolt Thrower) has a difficult vocal style to take, but I’m into the heavy riffing behind his growls, darker than thrash but not impenetrable like Bolt Thrower’s grindcore origins.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Music, rap, thrash

→ June 1, 2019
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 6/1/19.

My second mock first round for Monday’s MLB draft went up this past Tuesday for ESPN+ subscribers; my Big Board, ranking the top 100 prospects in the class, went up the previous week. I held a Klawchat on Thursday, and will hold another Monday afternoon, plus a Periscope live chat Monday night after the draft starts.

My latest board game review for Paste covers Aerion, a fun little solo game from the designer of Onirim, but that might be a bit too easy to beat. I won every single time I played; it was often close, but I still could find a way to win even with various included expansions.

I finally got back to my email newsletter yesterday, talking about why this was such a weird draft class to cover.

And now, the links…

One of those viral videos that purported to depict racism against African-Americans, this one involving a Chipotle employee (herself a person of color), turned out to get the story backwards; CNN has a long piece breaking down how the ‘internet mob’ got the story wrong and how it affected the woman targeted by the online outrage.
The BBC relates the history of British colonial authorities trying to erase hijras, India’s “third gender.” India recognized transgender people as an official third gender in 2014.
Jonathan Mayo polled 22 MLB scouts and executives asking who they’d take #1 in this draft class.
Waldorf Schools in California form major clusters of unvaccinated children; parents of these kids interviewed in this Guardian article voice the appeal to nature fallacy or the false conflict of interest claims. As much as anti-science is associated today with fundamentalist religion, you can also find wide swaths of anti-vaccine sentiment on the left in communities like these.
A German father wrote about losing his son to SSPE, a rare but invariably fatal side effect of measles infections. Max caught measles at six months, too young to be vaccinated, and SSPE put him into a vegetative state at the age of 12, after he’d suffered seizures and lost most of his memories. He died at 20.
Maine became the fourth state to eliminate non-medical exemptions to mandatory childhood vaccination rules, with the law passing the state’s Senate by a single vote. State Sen. James Dill (D), who voted for the bill, still raised bogus arguments about genetic conditions that might exempt children from the schedule, despite a total lack of evidence to support the existence of any such conditions. He’s listed as a scientist in that article, but his specialty is pest management, not immunology.
Fox News host Laura Ingraham defended white supremacist Paul Nehlen as a “prominent voice” who was “censored” (not what that word means) by social media.
Elizabeth Warren’s explanation of why she won’t do a town hall on Fox News is perfect (although I have no idea what Whoopi Goldberg is talking about at the end).
Why is the Administration referring to fossil fuels as “molecules of freedom?”
A science professor at Williams College writes about how students are rejecting science that challenges their worldviews, such as discussions of genetic differences between males and females, or across different geographic groups.
This New York Post article asserting that some students are avoiding colleges in states that are trying to outlaw abortion seems incredibly anecdotal, even if it’s sort of plausible. I’d like to see actual data on whether this affects applications or enrollment at any such schools before we claim this is a thing.
The Good Men Project tracks Sean Doolittle’s tour of MLB cities’ independent bookstores.
I loved Gabriel Garcia-Marquez’s novel One Hundred Years of Solitude, so I enjoyed this mental floss piece with some facts and trivia about the novel.
A University of Alabama-Birmingham study of spectator injuries at sporting events pointed to the need for more netting to protect fans from “ballistic” injuries – something flying from the field of play into the seats.
There’s a new, micro-game on Kickstarter from Wingspan designer Elizabeth Hargrave called Tussie Mussie.
Tweet of the week:
The people who belittle @AOC for being a former waitress are the same faulting @ewarren for billing out at $675/hr. So how much exactly should world-changing women make?

— Katherine M. Gordon (@katgordon) May 28, 2019

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: anti-science, baseball, india, lgbt rights, links, maine, vaccines, white nationalism

→ May 31, 2019
→ By keith

The Friend.

Sigrid Nunez’s The Friend won the National Book Award for Fiction in 2018, a surprising turn of events for a writer whose first book was published in 1995 yet had never found much of a commercial audience, even with significant critical praise for her work. A novel about a writer and a dog, about love and death, about the writer’s calling and the reader’s expectations, it’s a skillfully crafted work that asks a lot of you even as it is rushing past.

Nobody has names in this book except the dog, Apollo, who doesn’t appear until about 40 pages in. Nunez writes in the second person, as the narrator, a writer, speaks to her recently deceased friend, an acclaimed writer who often taught writing, slept with his students, married three of them, and was a fountain of insight (or merely opinion) on the nature of writing. His death has unnerved her and leads her to revisit much of the history of her friendship with him, but she also ends up taking in his dog, Apollo, an aging great Dane who is himself mourning his lost master, despite the fact that her rent-controlled apartment strictly forbids dogs.

From there, we get the relationship between the narrator and the dog while the narrator draws parallels to her relationship with her late friend, which was … complicated, certainly. She’s learning to cope with the reality of his death and the void this leaves in her life, in which he has been some kind of fixture for what appears to be a few decades. Walking back through her memories of him opens up extended thoughts on literature, what it means to be a writer, why writers write, and what readers want, or think they want, from what they read. On the one hand, the world needs another novel about writers writing like I need a hole in my head. On the other hand, The Friend is quite good, and these are most of the best parts. The idea of writing as a calling versus writing as a vocation is still an important one – maybe a more important one than ever, since, as Nunez points out in the book, the publishing world could simply stop publishing new books tomorrow and it wouldn’t make an iota of difference to the quantity of books available to readers. (The narrator wryly observes that it would have some impact on the economy, although those aren’t the same books that the narrator and her friend write.) We can write our own stories; can we write those of others? What obligations do we have to our subjects, even those we fictionalize? To what extent should privileged writers step aside for other voices from previously disadvantaged communities or groups?

The Friend also brings us two sets of interactions with students – one from college students in writing classes who come across as spoiled non-readers who don’t appreciate good writing and believe their own to be ready for the world, and another from the narrator’s experience working with victims of sex trafficking in a sort of writing therapy. The first group is there more for comic relief, although it becomes a launching point for some of the broader dialogues on why people write (and what a poor choice of career it might be). The second, however, could have spun out into its own book, and if anything gets too little time on the page, but it seems to stand in for the argument that writing can serve a purpose beyond satisfying the author’s ego.

Nunez pulls an authorial trick near the end of the novel that breaks any spell she’d cast to that point, partially redeeming herself with the last few sentences of the entire novel. Prior to that, however, there are some narrative gaps that never sat well with me – notably, why on earth does the narrator take the dog? She’s barely talked into it by Wife Three, and is fully aware it may cost her her apartment. (That also gets a bit of cheap resolution.) You may forgive all of these foibles because The Friend is driven by the narrator’s grief, not by plot. Little actually happens in the book, and what happens is mostly mundane stuff about the dog. You are here for Nunez’s thoughts on writing, on coping with unexpected loss, and what we give and get from our pets. It’s not perfect, but there are some truly lovely passages here, and the ending is so well done it should be punctuated by a bat flip.

Next up: Spike Milligan’s comic novel Puckoon.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: american literature, contemporary novels, national book award

→ May 30, 2019
→ By keith

Klawchat 5/30/19.

My latest mock for Monday’s MLB draft is up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: Head in the clouds, your pockets filled with dreams. It’s Klawchat.

Kevin S.: A couple weeks ago in your chat, you mentioned that you felt the “Yankee voodoo” we joke about is actually something they’re doing developmentally that the rest of the league has not caught onto yet. Is it something specific you’re seeing (and if so, what?), or are you inferring this from their successes with guys like Voit and Urshela?
Keith Law: I’m inferring from their success with several hitters (and their ability to get nice velocity bumps from some young pitchers in the low minors), and from other writers’ coverage of the Yanks’ data-driven development approach. I’ve linked to a few things Lindsey Adler has written for the Athletic about this.

Jeff: Keith – Walker Buehler has been, on the surface, a little disappointing to date, but has an FIP in the mid 3s…assume you believe there’s no reason for concern?
Keith Law: As long as he’s healthy, yes, no reason.

alex: Callis said that Witt is the best SS draft prospect since ARod. Other folks have said Adley R. is the best prospect since Harper. Which is more offbase? I know you would pick Adley R. #1 (and I hope the Os do the same since going underslot may not work with the D-Backs and all their picks).
Keith Law: I don’t agree with either assessment – too many questions about Witt’s hit tool, definitely would put a few guys between Adley and Harper (Cole comes to mind, Buxton had absolutely elite tools). I have no issue with the O’s taking Vaughn, which I’ve heard a few times they are seriously considering, to go over slot at 42/71. There are enough good, tough-sign high school arms in this draft to make that work – especially since teams have a decent idea who other teams are on (e.g., we keep hearing that Arizona is on certain HS arms like Priester and Goss).

Jeff: Keith – Who are the most likely players to start falling that the Dodgers might scoop up as they did with Buehler & Kendall?
Keith Law: I mentioned Misner, who is very Kendall-like in his great tools/high strikeout profile but maybe a better pure athlete, in my mock. I bet they go with a good HS player with one pick (Brooks Lee’s name has come up twice with them since I posted the mock) and then take a guy who ‘fell’ like Misner or Zack Thompson.

Teddy: How fixable is Hunter Bishop’s strikeout issue? Is it a mechanical or pitch recognition problem?
Keith Law: Can it be neither?

Teddy: What percent chance would you give Kyle McCann to stick behind the plate?
Keith Law: Close to zero.

Dana: With Didi coming back and Torres moving to second, are the Yanks better off playing Urshela or LeMahieu at third?
Keith Law: Urshela and let DJLM move around.

Steve: Let’s say the O’s cut a deal with Bleday and Witt goes 2, do the White Sox go Vaughn or Rutschman? How much money would Bleday have to save GM KLaw for you to pass on Vaughn/Rutschman there?
Keith Law: I think White Sox would absolutely take Rutschman, but I hear directly conflicting stories on whether they would take Vaughn (what I put in my mock) or Abrams (which I believe Jim Callis & Jonathan Mayo had in their mocks). I keep hearing Kenny Williams is very involved in their draft room, which I don’t exactly understand, and that he favors Abrams. The last time the White Sox had a top ten pick and used it on a high school position player was … 1985.

Mattey: Kingery is starting in CF for the Phillies again today. Is he good enough of a defender to become the everyday player there?
Keith Law: I’ve never seen him do it – he was a CF until his junior year at Arizona, then moved to 2b, where I think he’s a potential 70 defender – but I believe he has the speed and instincts to do it, just not really the ideal arm.

Kevin : Does Tampa call up McKay?
Keith Law: I believe he’ll be up this summer. It’s time for him to give up hitting.

Bobby W: Any idea what the Padres’ pref list order looks like for Vaughn/Abrams/Bleday/Greene?
Keith Law: I don’t think there’s any way Vaughn or Bleday gets to them. Given the two HS hitters, I think they’d take Greene over Abrams.

Pete: Your reports talked about it and it looks clear seeing him hit — Austin Riley is going to strike out a lot. Once regression hits and he slows down, do you still project him as a regular?
Keith Law: 55 defender with his kind of power is a regular, definitely.

Eddy: If your mock had Jackson Rutledge off the board at 9, who would you have given to Atlanta?
Keith Law: Bishop. Texas is the only team ahead of Atlanta I could see taking Rutledge.

Danfromman: It seems that teams put quite a bit of importance on recent performance when evaluating their potential draft picks. Is this not a risk for SSS bias.
Keith Law: Maybe, but the flip side is that players that young tend to change rather significantly even year to year, and underweighting recent performance (and looks) risks missing players who’ve reached a new level of physical or emotional maturity or just learned something new.

Kyle KS: Parks and Rec question, my wife says the episodes with Louis CK are now ruined for her even though the one with Leslie preparing for the date is one of her favorites. She won’t watch those now. I’ll watch them based in the hope they didn’t know about his behavior. I’m not sure if you rewatch shows like this but how would you treat those episodes?
Keith Law: I almost never rewatch shows. I’d be more comfortable watching something from before a creep was outed than watching anything from afterwards. Like, Roman Polanski is terrible, but Chinatown was before he was convicted?

Eddy: What am I missing on Brennan Malone not being higher? Lot of athleticism, velocity, good breaking ball and changeup seems positive. Is he not higher simply because he’s a high school RHP or is there another concern?
Keith Law: HS RHP with good breaking ball, velocity but not life or high spin, not super projectable. I think he’s in the right spot.

Mark: I really do not think there is any reasonable argument to be made for not extending the netting in MLB parks. If it saves 1 life or prevents 1 traumatic injury it is worth it. Where do you think Rutchman, Vaughn, Witt, etc., rank compared to your preseason top 100 minor leaguers?
Keith Law: Rutschman and Vaughn would be top 25 prospects, the next tier (including Witt) might not be top 50. We’ve had a lot of graduations already this year, though, so if I redid a top 100 next Wednesday it would look very different than January’s.

Kyle: Hard Yordan Alvarez moved into your Top 100 yet?
Keith Law: Good example of someone who’d be on it now. So would Balazovic, who was on my ‘just missed’ list in January.

Rick Sanchez: Do you buy Luis Urias’ recent power surge at all, or is it just a product of SSS in a hitter’s environment with a juiced ball?
Keith Law: Power surge, no. High average/OBP, yes, I buy those.

Frank Viola: Wander Franco has been hitting out of his mind recently. How does Franco compare to Vlad when he was same age/level?
Keith Law: Pretty close overall but Franco offers more value beyond the batter’s box while Vlad Jr had (has) the exceptional power.

Moe Mentum: What was your primary motivation to stop eating beef? Also, were there any noticeable acclimatization phases (good or bad) when you first made this dietary change – e.g. fitness level, weight gain/loss, digestion, general health, food budget, shopping habits, etc.?
Keith Law: My daughter and I have an inborn error of metabolism that (boring biochemistry stuff) makes it harder for us to digest red meat. I realize now in hindsight that I felt really crappy after eating beef in particular.

Marshall MN: Are there any “obvious” sign under slot guys that you could see shaking up the top 10? I know you mentioned a couple as it related to the Orioles first pick, but I was just curious if there were any others?
Keith Law: Jung may not be very under-slot but he was the one I had in the mock who’s not top ten talent etc. but could go up there. I think the top ten go pretty chalk, but around the Phillies at 14 the potential for deals opens up a lot.

Marc: Should Pelosi move to impeach Trump and who should the Mets pick at 12? Also, can we get Kelenic back?
Keith Law: Yes, Manoah if he gets there (and he might), and sorry, no refunds.

Chuck: Mr. Klaw, your thoughts on the Carter Stewart news? Is MLB going to have to wake up and pay prospects what they’re worth?
Keith Law: I don’t think this moves the needle at all.

Shawn: Drew Rasmussen is flying up the Brewers system. Is he a top 100 prospect in the next re-tank and do you think he Starts long term or ends up in the bullpen (pen maybe this year?!)
Keith Law: Very few guys have two TJs and stay starters.

Pat: What has Matthew Boyd changed to all of a sudden become so good? Also, if you wereDetroit would you trade him ? 3 1/2 yrs of control left, good fit for SD with that park?
Keith Law: Added a cutter and uses it a lot – as he should as his fastball was unplayable. Martin Perez has done the same this year. Add a pitch and, assuming it’s good, you can become a totally different guy. Boyd wasn’t even a fifth starter for me with his previous repertoire. Now he’s a legit mid-rotation guy (and, apparently, a great, generous person, too).

Eric: did anyone project this kind of power from yelich? i’m a marlins fan, and his skillset was always pure hitting, but always felt he’d be capped at around 20HRs. this is incredible.
Keith Law: I think I’d projected 25+ from him when he was younger but I’m not totally sure. Of course everyone’s hitting more HR now because of the juiced ball.

Tom: Have you seen or heard anything on Forrest Whitley to change your outlook on him? When healthy, could the Astros promote him to see what getting him out of that envirnoment does?
Keith Law: He’s on the IL with a sore shoulder.

Ben: Any new articles can we expect to see from you these next couple days leading up to the draft? Thx
Keith Law: Next mock is Monday. If there’s sufficient news before then, I’ll write, but I’d rather hold smaller news back for the mock.

chauncey: what are your feelings on Andruw Vaughn?
Keith Law: I’m imagining this as Vaughn’s bat and Andruw Jones’ glove and that’s like Mike Trout without the speed.

Jake: Do you see Witt Jr. as a no doubt SS or could he be moved around the diamond based on his athleticism? CF?
Keith Law: He’s a shortstop, that’s no doubt.

Scott: Do you think there is a problem with the offensive explosion in the minor leagues, particularly the PCL? Can a team like Arizona accurately evaluate their players in Reno?
Keith Law: Yes, using the juiced ball in AAA has been a big mistake.

Harper’s Socks: How likely is it that one of the big 6 hitters (Rutschman, Vaughn, Witt, Abrams, Greene, Bleday) is available for the Reds at 7? Who would be most likely to fall and why?
Keith Law: I think those guys go 1-6 in some order and the Reds take Lodolo or, failing that, Kirby.

Eric: have you read michael lewis’ “the new risk?” even knowing that the government agencies under trump were bad, the amount of negligence to vital needs is still jarring.
Keith Law: No, because I think it’s going to just make me more angry at the low-key damage being done to our society and economy in ways that don’t make headlines.

ATL: You gotten any like at Dylan Carlson? Has he made any adjustments that could vault him into the top 100?
Keith Law: I’m a believer. I’d guess he’d make a revised top 100.

jeff: so i realize this injury is sort of murky for Correa, but is it fair to say injuries/durability are a real concern with him at this point?
Keith Law: He needs to come up with better injury excuses. Like, ‘my fiancee and i were trying out the new trapeze in the bedroom and the rope snapped, i’ll secure it better next time.’

Zac: On your prospect big board, there was a comment about Alex Manoah had no flaws in his delivery except he pitches out of the stretch every time, is that a knock against him for he doesn’t have a wind up so you don’t know if there are flaws?
Keith Law: It’s a knock because it’s atypical, but I don’t see why it’s actually bad.

Doug: Kimbrels market is going to explode once he loses the draft pick right?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Kevinkyle: Keith, love your work, thanks for all you do. I always find something interesting in your music recs. Have you ever spent any time listening to jazz or blues music? I grew up on hard rock and metal and somehow ended up enjoying a lot of jazz. Thanks again
Keith Law: I like it but don’t really know it well.

WhiteSoxAndy: Is Lucas Giolito for real? I want to believe. The truth is out there.
Keith Law: Yes. New changeup, tweaked delivery, better focus too. Gave up a 3R bomb in the first the other day and bore down afterwards to dominate.

CD: Based on your mock and Top 100, it appears Oakland would be reaching a bit on Greg Jones. Are you hearing them on any other guys closer to your draft rankings?
Keith Law: Yes – some will be gone, like Will Wilson or Busch, and some would be good value but higher-risk like Goss. They’re on all of them and Logan Davidson too. I just think Jones has a real hit tool question and can’t stay at short.

Will R.: Keith, per your recent mock draft it looks like you have Chicago kid Quinn Preister slipping a bit. His draft stock take a hit lately due to performance?
Keith Law: Not at all. Just that the industry doesn’t love HS RHP.

Michael: Can you explain Bellinger’s success? He hit one HR as a senior in high school. How does he go from that to perhaps the best power hitter in the league in such a short time. Is this projectable for anyone in this year’s draft class?
Keith Law: Swing changed a lot in pro ball. Also I think everyone missed what a great defender he was at 1b and that he could play at least average defense in CF (a really rare combination).

Adam D.: I’m not overly enthusiastic about Bryson Stott to the Giants. Seems like a high floor, low ceiling pick. Would you agree with that, or does he have a chance to be more than an average regular?
Keith Law: I had them taking Bishop, not Stott. I don’t think there’s a scenario where they end up with Stott, because one of Bishop or Manoah probably gets to them. If Bishop goes 9, I’d give the Giants Manoah and the Blue Jays Rutledge, and then Stott still gets to 13.

Aaron C.: What’s the plan for “Klaw-smas Day” (draft day)? TV hits? Running blog-like commentary/diary? Or, should I mind my own damn business?
Keith Law: Doing some TV hits on Baseball Tonight Sunday, then I don’t know about Monday yet. I’ll chat in the afternoon, for sure, and probably live-tweet that evening? I’ll file a day one recap that night for sure and do a second chat Tuesday afternoon after the third round.

Pete: Should the Mets just keep playing Dom Smith in LF until Nimmo returns so he gets regular reps for the time being or is it not worth the defensive hit the team would take?
Keith Law: They’re not going to the playoffs this year so I’d play him – and tell him his defense doesn’t matter, just worry about hitting – and let him get more at bats.

James: Is Dustin May a future #1? Separately, can he be useful in relief for LA later this year?
Keith Law: I feel like more #2 than #1 due to delivery but I wouldn’t be shocked if he turned into an ace in time. Great athlete with ridiculous shit.

Tom: Any scuttlebutt on who the Red Sox may their eye on at #43?
Keith Law: Very little, but I did hear them connected to the two hitters at U of Arizona, Quintana and Cannon. They’re just so far down that I don’t hear much gossip about them.

Dan: Hey Keith, thanks as always for the chats! I know we’ve established that ‘clutchiness’ doesn’t exist but what about the really extreme hot streaks? I’m talking about Arietta’s 2015 second half (0.75 ERA/0.727 WHIP in 107 IP) or Yelich’s 2018 second half (.367/.449/.770, 25 HR in 65 games). Are these guys just seeing the ball exceptionally well or have perfect arm action for months at a time? Or is this a mix of talent and a lot of luck in not having a bad stretch of games? I guess what I’m getting at here is if you’re up against one of those guys when they’re on a roll like that, is their recent hot performance a predictor of future performance?
Keith Law: The smaller the time period, the more frequent extreme performances will be.

Mark: do you have more faith in the Giants talent evaluation this draft than you have in the past?
Keith Law: Did I ever say I didn’t like their evaluations? I may not have loved some of their high picks but I don’t remember ever questioning their scouting staff.

Jordan: Will JJ Bleday be an above average regular in the MLB?
Keith Law: I think so. He might have the strongest hands/wrists in the draft. Even with that hitch in his swing, he can drive the ball to all fields like it’s nothing.

Teddy: Can you expand on your response to the Hunter Bishop strikeout question? Are you saying you don’t think he has a strikeout issue, or it’s not clear what the cause is?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s mechanical or some kind of lack of pitch recognition.

Jonathan: Cameron Cannon has hit very well in college in this year. Thoughts on where he might go in the draft and is the knock on him his defense?
Keith Law: Specifically that he has no position, but he can hit.

Jeff: Do you agree that it’s best to combat anti-vaxxers with debate and not censorship? I ask because the refusal to debate/ growing push to censor them seems to empower them and even give credence to their ridiculous claims among those who are on the fence, at least in my small sample.
Keith Law: The best way to combat them is to ban nonmedical exemptions, and then educate the few people who fight it.

Matt Klentak: Keith, My track record in the draft is below-average. Who should I draft at 14?
Keith Law: I’ve heard them with all manner of players – I think my last list for them had a college bat, a HS bat, a college arm, and a HS arm. I’d like to see them not play it safe because that hasn’t worked well for them.

Alex: You mention the Nats routinely take “famous” players. Any reason or method to that for them?
Keith Law: It’s worked kind of well for them. Their record with first and supplemental-round picks is quite good.

Ed: Please tell me the Padres aren’t going with another arm in round 1
Keith Law: I only listed them with bats in my mock.

Rick Hahn: Coming into today’s game Zach Collins is hitting .248/.375/.522, which is very similar to Adam Dunn’s line with the Reds .247/.380.520. Is Dunn a good hitting comp for Collins, who looks to be a 3 true outcomes type of hitter.
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re close.

Mok: Do I have this right according to the party of science: misgendering someone or even being slightly skeptical of vaccines is literal violence, but killing an unborn child is “reproductive rights”?
Keith Law: No, you don’t have it right. And I don’t think it matters to you that you’re wrong.

JP: The Rays struggling to break 6,000 fans while playing .640+ ball is probably a harbinger of the future of baseball in St Petersburg, right?
Keith Law: Agreed. I’d really like to see them moved to another market at this point. Everyone says Portland but I keep banging the drum for Austin.

Brian: Keith, I understand that Wilmington is a tough park for hitters but the lack of contact by the Royals hitting prospects is alarming. When watching their games does something stand out why the contact rate is so poor among all their hitters?
Keith Law: Each is swinging and missing in a different way. Matias is the most alarming because he just swings really hard without any sign that he’s distinguishing pitch type or location.

JP: Klaw you’ve mentioned that you are in the final year of your current contract. Do you have an idea when we might know more? Not sure when my Insider/+ subscription expires but my decision to renew will basically be contingent on your status.
Keith Law: I don’t think I can answer that publicly, but thank you very much for the kind words.

Matt: Can you believe Trump is this petty and childish? Even though you hate *my favorite team* even I know you would never ask them to cover the name when you go to a game.
Keith Law: The next team to go to the White House after winning some championship should all show up in jerseys that say “MCCAIN.”

Michael: If someone had picked Trout top 5, how much grief would they have gotten?
Keith Law: I think a lot, between Billy Rowell (9th pick in 2006 from south Jersey, total bust) and Trout’s profile (white-right-right high school outfielder from the northeast, hits a lot of old scouting stereotypes).

Brian: Sorry if this is a dumb question but when you review board games do you play with other people or ride solo?
Keith Law: Not dumb at all! I play everything with at least one other person unless it’s a true solo game. Usually I try to play anything that plays 3+ with at least three people.

Gerald: Sports talk radio here in Arizona is so old fashioned and bad – also the main guy here ‘gambo’ says “wow NO WAY the Dbacks should have to eat Grienke salary in a trade” what he doesn’t realize is we would get better prospects in return, right ? And with this many high draft
Keith Law: He’s not good. I won’t go on their station because he slandered me on air. Your take is correct: if they pay more of the salary, they’ll get a better return.

James: Your tweets suggest that anyone who doesn’t want nets around the field has no feeling. I attend many games with my children, whom I generally like and desire to keep safe. And yet I hate the idea of nets from pole to pole. You cannot regulate away every risk, and the incidents of injury like we saw last night are extremely low. More people get hurt walking around the park than by batted balls. The nets would have a significant effect on the feel of the game and my enjoyment of it. It’s not cold-hearted to think that.
Keith Law: I sit behind nets all the time and I don’t notice them any more at all. Your brain will learn quickly to filter it out.

Steve: It feels like Anthony Volpe is destined to be a great player that is drafted too low, doesn’t it?
Keith Law: I do not get that feeling, no. I think he’s a fine prospect who’ll be a great college player, but his tools are limited. You have to absolutely believe he’s going to hit to feel as you do.

J: I know we’re mostly on the draft tip today, but thoughts on Devin Smeltzer and Zack Plesac moving forward this season?

Also, is Smeltzer-Plesac an 80’s jazz fusion band, or a chemical company?
Keith Law: I’m in on Plesac – had him 14th in Cleveland’s system last year, talked him up as a possible starter – less so on Smeltzer, who seems like a reliever to me.

Andrew: Difference between Nate Pearson his draft year and Jackson Rutledge this year?
Keith Law: Pearson was (is) a better athlete with a better delivery, I think. Rutledge is fortunate to come out in a way weaker draft and probably benefits from how good Pearson’s been.

Brian: Will you be Periscoping the draft again this year? If so, what will be your drink of choice?
Keith Law: If there’s demand, then yes, I’ll do that

Sue: Corbin Burnes has really struggled for the Brewers. They say they will still give him the chance to be a starter. Do you still believe he has a high ceiling as a starter?
Keith Law: I do, completely. Some absurdly bad luck, and very poor location on four-seamers. The former will work out in time; the latter is entirely fixable.

Andrew: Is there precedent/comp to J.J. Bleday’s swing? You mentioned he looks like he’s swinging an axe in your top 100 big board which scares me and that was enough for me to put Hunter Bishop ahead of him.
Keith Law: Hunter Pence’s hitch was worse, as I recall it from when he first came up.
Keith Law: He worked out OK.

Jerry Dybzinski: Are you related to Vance Law?
Keith Law: No, but Ty Law is my first cousin.

Chris: What’s the knock on Goss in the draft ?
Keith Law: None beyond that he’s a high school right-hander.

Andrew: Thoughts on high school prospect Jason Hodges?
Keith Law: If he’s signable, I think he’s a third-fifth round talent.

Austin: Have you seen any improvements with Adam Haseley or is this just Reading at it’s finest?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen Reading, but I have not heard about any positive changes to his swing that would make me think this is real.

Eric: What is considered success for an organization for a top-10 (or first-round) pick? Make it to the majors? Be a regular? Be an all-star?
Keith Law: If you get a regular position player or mid-rotation starter at picks 2-10, you did well. At 1, you should shoot for a star.

Chris P: Where does Leiter need to be taken to pry him away from Vandy? I’m assuming he’s not good enough to go top 15, so he’s off to school.
Keith Law: The consistent rumor is that he’d sign with the Yanks or Mets but no one else. What that might cost, I don’t know. I don’t even know if that’s accurate, but I keep hearing it.

MJ: Alek Thomas on course for the next 100?
Keith Law: Yes. I had him as a first-round talent last June and so far he looks like he was one.

Greg: Now that it looks like Pedroia is done…Do Utley, Pedroia, and Cano all go to the HOF? Does Utley benefit the most from retiring first?
Keith Law: I’m going to guess none of the three get in. Utley may have the best case.

Eric: Byron Buxton is fun and awesome. No question, just wanted to remind everyone.
Keith Law: I agree. One of the most exciting players to watch today.
Keith Law: Hell, the Twins are *fun* as a whole.

Jeff: If the padres wind up with Vaughn would it be to eventually trade him? Hope for the DH in the NL?
Keith Law: Or to think they can dump Hosmer at some point?

Brother: Deivi Garcia: how short is too short? What chance does he have of actually starting in MLB?
Keith Law: Not too short. He’s like 6′. He might be too slight, but that’s another question.

Sean: Please start promoting Dr. Gunter’s upcoming book, already have one pre-ordered.
Keith Law: I have a copy but haven’t read it yet.

Lobster Klaws: Sorry if this has been asked, but have you tried the Impossible Burger? I want to try it, but fear that by the time they get it into supermarkets, the price will be too high. Same reason I don’t buy bison (which is better than regular ground beef in some regards).
Keith Law: Yep, it’s really good.

HugoZ: Seriously, you think Polanski suddenly became a pervert in 1977?
Keith Law: No, I think that’s when he got caught. (I’ve actually seen The Pianist, which came out way after 1977, but the idea of considering the sins of the artist when choosing what art to consume hadn’t even occurred to me yet. I do still struggle with those decisions, especially when it comes to works of art that are acknowledged classics and highly influential, meaning that you have a hard time talking about contemporary works without knowing what came before.)

Pat: If you had to handicap it, what are the chances the O’s take Adley? 85%? Worse?
Keith Law: 50/50.

Mike: How big of a mistake/reach would it be in your opinion if the White Sox take Abrams?
Keith Law: Since Vaughn will be on the board in that scenario, then yes, it’s a significant mistake. And I don’t say that very often in the draft. They’d just be passing on a much better player to take someone who is very risky, and their history with players like Abrams (prep kids with a couple of plus-plus tools but questions about their ability to hit) isn’t as good as it is with college players.

Teddy: We’re seeing young player after young player get to Atlanta. Why did Anthopoulos fire the guy responsible for picking those players in Bridges?
Keith Law: He didn’t fire him, and I do not believe AA would say anything negative at all about Bridges’ drafts (which, as you say, were good at the time and look even better now).

PhillyJake: As the parent of a high school student, I’ve read lots recently about adjusting the start time of the school day. Minor league baseball has lots of kids just post high school in America, and high school aged in the DSL (and others, I’d bet) Is there word they’ve seen these studies and have adjusted their schedules for these kids?
Keith Law: I know several teams that have tried to teach prospects more about the importance of sufficient, high-quality sleep. Unfortunately games that run to 10:30 or later aren’t conducive to maintaining good sleep hygiene.

NHSI Guy: Hi Keith. No question. I’m the guy you spent like 20 minutes talking with as we walked out of the NHSI together in April. Because of work, I’m rarely available to read your chats live, so this is my first chance to say I enjoyed our chat and thanks for your generosity.
Keith Law: You’re quite welcome. I enjoyed our chat!

Pat: Have you heard any concerns about Rutschman’s shoulder? I’ve read that he had to stop playing quarterback in HS as a result, but I don’t know if that’s a nothingburger or not. Do teams have access to medicals before the draft?
Keith Law: I’ve heard that there is a medical report on him teams will see, but whether it’s a real issue, I don’t know and likely wouldn’t say unless folks like Callis/Mayo discuss it first (since they’re affiliated with MLB). I am very uncomfortable discussing non-public medical reports prior to the draft.

Joshua: How quick do you think Shea Langeliers could move up and play in the majors? Thanks Keith
Keith Law: I think his defense would be ready quickly, but his bat may be 2-3 years away.

Jack: How quickly does Rutschman reach the majors?
Keith Law: He should be up by the end of 2020.

Mose Allison Brie Larson: RE: netting from foul pole to foul pole – in Japan, where baseball is nearly a religion, they employ such a set-up. No one minds any all, and having attended games there, I can opine that it takes nothing away from the in-person experince.
Keith Law: It’s the most specious of complaints, and the benefit is reduced injuries.

Sam: What’s the highest spot you see Keoni Cavaco going?
Keith Law: I could see him going in the 25-35 range. Maybe the Dodgers or Cubs.

Adam D.: This is a bit of a crazy idea, but given how loaded the 2020 class is, would it make any sense at all for a team picking in the top-10 or so to pick one of the likely un-signable kids safe in the knowledge that not signing them means multiple first round picks next year?
Keith Law: No. People suggest that frequently in drafts that seem down, but 1) next year’s draft could always turn out to be worse than we think 2) a player today is worth a lot more than a player a year from now and 3) the GM/director in question could always lose their job before they get that extra pick.

Joe Don: In Mock 2.0 you report hearing that Texas could be changing from its long-standing preference for high-ceiling draftees. How come? The game is changing (TTO)? Disappointment with past results (Dillon Tate)? Something else?
Keith Law: They haven’t had great results with players like Jenkins or Thompson in recent drafts … maybe they’d take those players with lower picks, and try to lock in value with safer guys when drafting this high?

Joules: Draft periscope please!
Keith Law: Well, I guess that settles it. I’ll do a Periscope Monday, depending on whether TV needs me at all.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – I’ll be back to chat again Monday afternoon after my final mock is posted. I’ll also be offline for a bit this weekend (longtime readers know why), so I may be less visible here or on social media. Thanks as always for all of your questions!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ May 30, 2019
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 5/25/19.

For ESPN+ subscribers, I posted my 2019 MLB draft Big Board, ranking the top 100 prospects in this year’s draft class. I’ll tweak that before the draft but this is the last complete re-ranking. I also held a Klawchat on Friday.

I’m behind on just about everything else these days, but I’ll have a fresh game review up for Paste this upcoming week, and I swear there will be a new email newsletter issue soon. Really. I promise. Mostly.

And now, the links…

I tweeted about this story this week, but the report that set me off was Brandy Zadrozny’s article for NBC News about parents giving their kids bleach as a (fake) autism cure. The so-called MMS “cure” is just a fancy name for a toxic dose of chlorine dioxide, which is used to bleach wood pulp and paper.
The Washington Post examines how one right-wing activist has helped pack the nation’s courts with conservative judges. Why should any one person, regardless of political bent, have this kind of power over this branch of government? It’s likely to take decades to roll back the damage done to the country’s judiciary when it comes to fundamental issues like civil rights.
The Atlantic explores Sesame Street‘s introduction of a Muppet who lives with foster parents, and how the show’s writers try to teach viewers about dealing with traumatic events.
The editorial board of prestigious British medical journal The Lancet wrote this week that all doctors must fight to protect women’s rights and keep abortion safe and legal.
Anti-vaxxer activists are now working to spread their disinformation within communities suffering from measles outbreaks, including encouraging the orthodox to use (bogus) religious exemptions to skip mandatory vaccinations.
ProPublica shines a light on how the family of New Jersey political boss George Norcross benefited from over $1 billion in tax breaks, obtained through pressure on state officials that extended to one family lawyer helping write legislation to specifically benefit the Norcrosses.
Violence against trans people appears to be on the rise, so in response, the Administration is trying to roll back very basic protections for trans people, allowing homeless shelters to turn away people for being transgender and healthcare providers to freely discriminate against them.
Far far-right Arizona Rep. Kelly Townsend is trying again to pass a bill banning political speech in the classroom in a direct attempt to retaliate against teachers who fought last spring for higher pay and better working conditions in the #RedForEd movement.
Other far-right politicians attended a rally in Spokane to create a Christian state called Liberty State out of eastern Washington and northern Idaho. I’m sure the old Aryan Nations folks would be thrilled.
Deadspin’s Albert Burnenko writes that the idea that Trump wants to be impeached is absurd.
Trump entered office with more debt than any President in history, and last year added even more. So many of the core values that underpinned our democracy have died quiet deaths since his election; the failure to require Trump to divest from all his businesses feels like the worst of all the new precedents we’ve set.
Quentin Tarantino did not handle it well when asked a fair question about the limited dialogue for Margot Robbie in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
The Division 3 Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference is kicking out St. Thomas after 100 years of membership for being too good.
Lindsey Adler asked a number of Yankees players about the time each came closest to quitting baseball (subscription required).
Over at Baseball America, J.J. Cooper looks at what happens in pitching-poor drafts like this year’s when you choose to draft a pitcher. The short answer: it’s not good.
Alabama continues to roll back the clock as fast as they can, as Alabama public television refused to air an episode of Arthur that showed a same-sex wedding.
A Methodist pastor in Alabama had some strong words for forced-birth Republicans, but more importantly, doesn’t he look a lot like David Ross?
Britain’s Labour Party made this tremendous video arguing against UKIP’s politics of exclusion as part of its Labour Voices series.
Board game news: Pre-orders are up now for Era, the newest game from designer Matt Leacock (Pandemic, Forbidden Desert).
Asmodee announced a new division, Gamegenic, to design and sell accessories for games, items like card sleeves, playmats, and storage boxes.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: alabama, arizona, baseball, board game news, lgbt rights, new jersey, pseudoscience, stick to baseball, the swamp, vaccines, white nationalism

Tags

Archives