→ August 10, 2019
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Stick to baseball, 8/10/19.

One ESPN+ post this week, a scouting blog entry on Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal, Deivi Garcia, Triston Casas, and more. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

Over at Paste, I reviewed the delightfully named card game Point Salad, which mocks the trend towards complicated scoring by giving you over a hundred different ways to earn points as you collect vegetable cards from the table.

My latest email newsletter edition went out on Tuesday, after I returned from Gen Con. You can sign up here for free to get more of my personal writing.

And now, the links … I assembled this on Thursday night before leaving for vacation, so it’s shorter than usual and anything that happened on Friday won’t be reflected here.

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→ August 8, 2019
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Klawchat 8/8/19.

Keith Law: True identity hidden inside secret tabloids. Klawchat.

Mickey Callaway: Given the silly ball, are groundball pitchers like Stroman more valuable than in a normal environment?
Keith Law: I don’t think so offhand, but that’s a question someone could answer with empirical evidence.

Ben: Have you read (or do you plan on reading) The Luminaries by Eleanor Catton, winner of the 2013 Man Booker? If you haven’t yet gotten to it, I’d offer a slight nudge against any aspirations to do so. Too fat for such little character depth has me questioning that Booker panel..
Keith Law: I haven’t because of its weight (been reading shorter books this summer or e-books since I’m traveling/going to games a lot).

James: Thoughts on the Blue Jays rookie hitters so far?
Keith Law: I’m buying Vlad and Bichette, of course. Gurriel’s power is real, not sure there’s much OBP there. That’s it.

Moe Mentum: Adam Haseley – SSS, but is he performing above, at, or below your expectations in the majors so far? Anything sustainable as a long-term starting/platoon OF?
Keith Law: Probably above expectations. Just an extra OF.

Joe: Can you think a reason why Chris Davis is still on the Orioles? The only reason I have heard is that he isn’t blocking anyone, but even though that is true it is a silly reason.
Keith Law: I would just cut him at this point. He’s below r-level, never getting better, and not worth the roster spot.

zuke354: Is it ok to start believing in Arozarena? Just a little bit?
Keith Law: I think the .432 BABIP might be both a fluke and driven by the silly ball in AAA.

Bob: Can Isaac Paredes ride his contact ability/bad body combo to become an above average infielder at either 2B or 3B?
Keith Law: I would bet the under on that. Maybe an average regular. No projection there.

zuke354: How long before somebody skips the walmarts and opens fire in a crowded stadium?
Keith Law: It’d be hard to get a weapon into a major league stadium, but the minors … there are simply too many guns out there. It seems inevitable that this will happen in an extremely crowded place and we’ll see 100+ dead.

Chris: Mets should offer Wheeler QO regardless, right?
Keith Law: Yes.

Bob: Cal Raleigh has started to hit in AA. Can he be an average regular?
Keith Law: I would buy that.

Robert: Is Luis Campusano on the short list of top C prospects behind Adley, Bart, Ruiz and may he be a first div regular?
Keith Law: Yes, and yes. Behind Cartaya, I think.

ndrah: some talk about the twins calling up one or two of their top pitching prospects this fall. Do you think Graterol could contribute?
Keith Law: Maybe in relief?

Robert: I was pleasantly surprised to see X Edwards on your top 50. Do you see more upside with him long term than Urias?
Keith Law: Absolutely. Urias is more ready Edwards has more upside.

Christopher: Should I expect a reasonably intelligent 6 year old (my son) to have reasonable chance of being able to play Splendor?
Keith Law: My daughter played it competently at age 7.

JSG: What do the Dodgers do with Gavin Lux? He appears, judging from his small AAA stat line, to be MLB-ready or close to it. But Seager can’t be moved to third while Turner’s there, and Turner is still productive.
Keith Law: Second base?

Jason: Is Anthony Santander just a guy having a hot streak, or is he something more?
Keith Law: Something more. Might be a regular there. Shouldn’t his nickname be “Banco” by now?

Devin: Have the Nats pushed Luis Garcia too aggressively? Only 19 put struggling at AA 258/285/309 at AA
Keith Law: They have pushed him aggressively, but I also don’t find any support for him from scouts.

Allison: Thanks for allowing a glimpse into your life away from baseball in your newsletters. The benefit of hindsight notwithstanding, do you understand argument (not necessarily agree with) that the A’s were prudent in taking high risk prospects like Austin Beck and Kylar Murray with consecutive top-10 picks because they couldn’t sign players with tools like than in an open market? Do you see a 10% chance that Beck could ever perform well enough to justify his high draft position? Thanks.
Keith Law: I do understand the philosophy, but perhaps not those specific picks. What happened with Murray was a bit out of nowhere – I don’t think anybody saw him as a first-round NFL talent until last fall – but I’m not sure he was really a top ten MLB talent anyway.

MHG: What is the spread of what teams spend on scouting and player development? Tigers can’t seem to do either. Is it lack of resources or personnel or both?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s financial. I think in this case it’s philosophical.

Aaron C.: Do you have the correct opinion on the movie “Field of Dreams” like Craig Calcaterra or do you like it?
Keith Law: I like it. It’s fine, not my favorite baseball movie, definitely on the sappy side, but it’s fine.

Fan of team you hate: How have the reports been on Trevor Rogers? Surface numbers look solid.
Keith Law: Reports have also been solid, not spectacular, but solid enough to say 4th starter.

Uli Jon: Just returned from a trip to Colombia and could not recommend it more (well at least Medellin and Cartagena, Bogota is just ok). What is the baseball program like there? Obviously soccer is king, but from what I understand there’s a bit of baseball on the Caribbean coast.
Keith Law: Would love to go there for vacation or work. Good baseball there, just not enough volume of players yet to think of it in the same breath as DR/Venezuela, but it’s coming on.

Tribe called jest: Aaron Bracho seems to be holding his own in the AZL, anything to get excited about? Thank you.
Keith Law: Yes, wrote him up positively in March when I saw him.

BigDaddeh: Was Frazier+Schmidt fair for Robbie Ray? Or did Dbacks truly need more from NYY
Keith Law: What is Frazier’s upside at this point? Can you bet on him becoming a regular? I wouldn’t.
Keith Law: And Schmidt’s delivery has always been a big red flag for me even before he had TJ.

Todd: Who do you ultimately think becomes the better ML pitcher between Sixto and Edward Cabrera?
Keith Law: I have Sixto ahead of Edward right now, but a healthy Garrett is ahead of both of them.

Ben: Is Luis Arraez a potential GUY? The Twins’ coaching staff just gushes about him but he looks kind of like a slap hitter with limited upside. He also seems to have taken Schoop’s job.
Keith Law: I think a good utility guy.

Derek: Do you envision Brock Burke as a future rotation piece for the Rangers?
Keith Law: Sure.

Jason: Seems like the Mets have found a hot streak, but that the the front office still has no real long term plan. Just a little luck.
Keith Law: And a very soft schedule the last month.

Nick: Seth Corry is currently having a breakout season. What’s his ceiling? TOR potential?
Keith Law: No. Mid-rotation potential.

Pramit: Can you recall a GM who’s made as many absurd comments talking up an organization the way Ross Atkins has?
Keith Law: He’s really bad at the PR part of his job. Saying less would be better.

Jeffrey : What do you think about the hard and fast July 31 trade deadline? With all the brains in the front offices I’m surprise that waivers is complicated. Is that why they change the rules?
Keith Law: Preventing teams from trading DFA’d players in August is both dumb and regressive. They’ll need to fix that.

J: This isn’t a question, this is a comment. Every time someone is a dipshit about you being light on someone you should just cough and say you had Tatis, Jr. in your top 50 when he wasn’t in BA’s Padres top 20.
Keith Law: One thing I’ve learned in this job is that far more people will point out my misses than will acknowledge my hits. I had people argue I was wrong about Zack Godley, Tony Kemp, and Maikel Franco when those guys had brief periods of productivity, and not one of them came back when those players were DFA’d in the last few weeks to say they were wrong.

Carl: Thoughts on Joey Cantillo? Does he need to add some velocity to be a guy? His numbers/age seem impressive.
Keith Law: He does need to add velocity to be a GUY, still potentially a major leaguer as is.

Jason: Early thoughts on Unbearable Lightness? The movie with Day Lewis, Binoche, and Olin is terrific, but loses Kundera’s philosophical views.
Keith Law: Almost done; this sort of novel is a bit out of my wheelhouse as I have so little background in philosophy. Kundera renounced the movie for the reason you mentioned. I’m moving through the book rather quickly – 50 pages left, trying to finish before vacation – but I haven’t connected with whatever he’s trying to say.

Joseph: What are your thoughts on Brailyn Marquez? Not sure how excited to be about him.
Keith Law: Every scout I’ve asked about him has been positive but said he’s a high-end reliever rather than a starter.

Mike: Ryan McMahon has been decent for Col this season, what do you think his offensive output ultimately is like in his prime?
Keith Law: I’m still shocked he strikes out as often as he does, but he can be productive at this level. I think he’s a .500+ SLG guy by next year.

BigDaddeh: Mlb game at Field of Dreams site. Cool, tacky or eh whatever?
Keith Law: I’m out. Play these games where we can grow the audience. Maybe that’s overseas, but what about putting games in potential expansion markets, like Portland or Austin or Charlotte? Bring MLB games to markets that typically don’t get to see them.

Kevin: Could Dalbec next year hit 30 HR with a 340 OBP in the majors?
Keith Law: I would bet the under on that OBP.

Jason: Did Zaidi make a big mistake in not selling everything, including Bumgarner? The hot streak has faded and they just got swept by the Nationals.
Keith Law: I think they should have sold everything, but who knows what ownership told Zaidi to do.

John: I read this evaluation of Dustin May earlier today – how many people in the industry think like this? “He’s not part of the exciting crop of starters that present legit upside for years to come. His sinker has life at 95+, but he didn’t have great command with the pitch. His cutter is solid and was effective here against the lowly Cardinals, but that’s it. His curveball is nothing to write home about, and I’m worried the heater is too susceptible to blowup games without enough upside.”
Keith Law: Nobody. That’s a big miss.

Adam: Like the promotions of Pache, Waters and Anderson to AAA? Would Pache, Waters and Acuna be the best defensive OF in baseball?
Keith Law: Three guys who could play CF.

Felix: Do you have any information on Tahnaj Thomas?
Keith Law: Up to 100 without command.

Andrew: KLaw: “Il meglio è l’inimico del bene” – i mean, no philosophical chasm across Dem candidates is as consequential or enormous as that between any of them and the current president – surely people will understand this by Nov ’20 and do the right thing, right? I’m disturbed by those who stubbornly go with the “my candidate or bust” stance…seems selfish, short-sighted and, well, stupid.
Keith Law: I got some of this today from Mariane Williamson supporters, who appear to all be made of stardust and oblivious to the strongly anti-science views she’s espoused for thirty years, to say nothing of her outright promotion of pseudoscientific bullshit or bigoted statements against people with disabilities. They don’t care. They want to talk about peace and love and good happiness stuff. The fucking mediots falling for this shit – AGAIN – should be ashamed. Cover the candidates who talk policy, not the ones who shoot rainbows out of their asses.

Corey B: Braxton Garrett is producing in A but is 22. What should I make of the success?
Keith Law: Age is largely immaterial for pitchers. Also, he’s 21 by seasonal age (turned 22 last week), and in high-A, which is appropriate for a 21-year-old player.

Aaron Houston, Tx: Klaw, I mentor a young college bound boy who recently changed his career path from engineering (my field) to journalism. Can you provide a few insights where I can advise him to get his feet wet. I feel blogging could be a good start. Maybe some volunteer work for a local paper or club. Any thoughts are greatly appreciated.
Keith Law: Eek, tough field to get into right now. Unfortunately, I didn’t come up through any sort of traditional career path, so I don’t know how people typically get into journalism.

romorr: Dean Kremer has looked sharp of late, is he still back end? What could he do to raise his profile, if he can that is. TY
Keith Law: Still a back end guy with that cross-fire delivery.

romorr: Most Oriole fans love Mountcastle, but I can’t get over the 3-4% walk rate. He is 22, but isn’t that a harder skill to teach? Just worried he is going to have to hit .290-.300 to have a respectable OBP.
Keith Law: Unlikely he gets to the point he can be a regular. I know some people were angry I didn’t have him on my top 100, but he clearly didn’t belong between low on-base skills and lack of position.

David (OR): Hi, Keith. Thanks for everything. Will Smith (Dodgers) – what’s his future with Keibert Ruiz on his heels? Are his solid numbers offensively just a result of SSS or is he a legitimate first-division starter?
Keith Law: Smith is an All-Star. Ruiz is probably trade bait at this point, but a very good prospect in his own right.

Brendan: Is Dante Bichette Jr a future major leaguer?
Keith Law: Org guy.

Robbie: How big is the gap between Nick Allen and Nick Madrigal? Am I way off in thinking that Allen is underrate estimated as a prospect?
Keith Law: Not that big. Not sure I would have Madrigal above Allen, since the latter can play a good SS.

Adam: Alex Jackson isnt setting the world on fire in AAA but if he can produce that stat line isnt he a MLB Regular at catcher?
Keith Law: He’d have to be a good enough defensive catcher to do that.

Oscar: Is it time to accept that Buxton’s body is just not going to cooperate with him? I love seeing him play, but it saddens me to think that injuries are going to rob him of the opportunity to do so.
Keith Law: No.

Dean: Have you heard from anyone inside baseball that that there will be an effort to revert to the pre-2016 baseball? This silliness can’t continue. The baseball currently being used in MLB is making a bigger mockery of statistics then PEDs ever did. Agree?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard anything along those lines – MLB does not seem to want to discuss the altered baseball, at least not in public. I agree it’s making a mockery of the game, not just stats, but in trying to evaluate players … imagine being a scout who’s assigned the AA and AAA affiliates of a specific team. You see the same hitter at both levels, but in AA he’s nothing special and in AAA he’s launching balls over the fence. How do you write *that* up?

Cashman: Garcia or Gil long term?
Keith Law: Garcia. I haven’t seen Gil myself but I hear he’s more likely a pen guy. Contreras > Gil right now.

Phanatic: Been hearing positive things on Phillies OF Johan Rojas. Got any intel on him?
Keith Law: Good feel to hit, with some speed and a good arm, not sure if he’s a CF in the long run.
Keith Law: A real prospect, though.

Ryan: The Brewers Devin Williams a legit late inning RP prospect, or more of a middle reliever?
Keith Law: He’s a real prospect as a reliever, but I don’t feel confident saying exactly what sort of reliever.

Graham: Why is Joey Bart so well regarded when reports generally hold that he possesses 2 subpar tools (defense and hit)?
Keith Law: His defense is subpar? What?

Craig: Keith, what you got on DBacks OF Alex Thomas? Just promoted to High A which I believe makes him one of, if not the youngest player in the entire A+ level.
Keith Law: He was on my top 50…

Ryan R: What is Jesse Winker’s ceiling? Guy consistently puts up a high OBP but defensive metrics haven’t been kind to him. Is his offensive profile strong enough to carry him into a everyday lineup spot?
Keith Law: He’ll never be a good defender, most likely, but I think he’s capable of getting on base like he did in 2018 and hitting for 200+ ISO like he did this year.
Keith Law: That’s an everyday player.

Mike: Jeff McNeil seems like an odd situation with him being 27 and finally being in the big leagues/MLB. What held him back from being a prospect?? General health or did he just improve?
Keith Law: Missed several years – 2.5? – to injuries. Also has one tool, really, the hit tool, specifically his ability to put the ball in play, which tends to be harder to scout/not something you want to bank on in the absence of any other tools.
Keith Law: I know he’s a fan favorite but by the time he’s arb-eligible he’ll be 30, and that skill he has does not typically age well.

Andrew : Giants are apparently promoting Ramos to AA today. Is this a little too aggressive?
Keith Law: Yikes. After last year, I wouldn’t be rushing him up the ladder.

Beau: Why did the Padres give up on Franmil? Will it come back to haunt?
Keith Law: Low OBP/improved pitch recognition from last fall hasn’t held up, also a poor defensive OF who may have to go to 1b or DH. I get it. They have better OF options coming and already have two 1b who don’t hit enough for the spot.

Mary: What is Thairo Estrada’s upside? He looked good in small sample size
Keith Law: Just saw him again on Tuesday – I really like him, probably as a utility infielder, just a really solid player who’ll put the ball in play and help out at 3 positions.

Jason: Does Michel Baez have a future as a starter, or is he in the right spot as a reliever?
Keith Law: Reliever for me.

Gun Control: PASS ME NOW PLEASE!
Keith Law: Mitch says no, while counting his NRA money.

Cole Fired: Do you think given how his profile fits their organizational philosophy (spin rate, k’s, etc) and his age fits their contending window the Yankees should aggressively pursue Cole this offseason?
Keith Law: Yes and I would bet they will.

Joe: Did the Tigers do the right thing trading Castellanos? Seems like the compensatory pick value may have been higher had they simply kept him and made a QO. Admittedly though, some of the new QO rules have my mind twisted in a pretzel so I may be misunderstanding all this.
Keith Law: I think they should have traded him sooner, but the trade was probably fine.

Dylan : Could you see a guy like Micker Adolfo or Luis Basabe get called up in September due to them being on the 40 man already and only having 2 option years remaining
Keith Law: Not for that reason, no. Adolfo could end up getting a fourth option in time.

BBTN: It’s really been a pleasure listening to you on the baseball tonight podcast the last two days, thanks for doing it
Keith Law: My pleasure – always good to get back with Eric again, plus I had two longtime friends on as guests in Alex Speier (buy his new book Homegrown, it’s good) and Joe Sheehan.

Craig: How come Joey Bart and Carter Kieboom did not make your midseason top 50? What are the shortcomings?
Keith Law: Neither was really close. I had more than 50 players ahead of each.

Jeff: JD Davis! Has no position but bat seems legit, right?
Keith Law: SSS.

Zihuatanejo: Austin Barnes almost immediately started killing it in AAA after looking done in the bigs. What are the odds he be a good (or at least serviceable) major league hitter?
Keith Law: Near nil.

Ted: You were on Balazovic as a stud pretty early. What are your thoughts on Jhoan Duran?
Keith Law: That one ‘splinker’ pitch he throws is legit. I hear some starter, some reliever; depends on whether you think that one pitch is enough of a carrying tool to let him turn a lineup over 3x.

Rahn: Sorry if I’m late to your opinion on this, but re: the Pirates holding onto Vasquez, what have you heard/read about the package(s) the Pirates were sifting through from L.A., Atlanta, etc. and why in the world did they not deal him?
Keith Law: No idea. I try not to get too deep into the rumor weeds because some of it is always bullshit.

Eric: I went to journalism school at Florida. My advice to Aaron’s mentee would be to major in something else (polsci, biz, etc), and minor in/take classes in journalism. Much more productive route I wish I chose.
Keith Law: I did wonder if developing subject matter expertise would be more useful. Hell, I took one writing class after high school, only because my college required it, and got a fucking B+ because the clown who taught it (an adjunct) was a poet, not a prose writer, and struggled with the basics of syntax and punctuation.

Will: What kind of player do you expect Isan Diaz to be? Is he another guy that’s tough to evaluate based on this season due to the AAA/MLB baseball?
Keith Law: We have some history on him, though, that says he should be at least a regular, chance for an above-average one.

Mike: Brudsar graterol – solid number 2 in his prime?
Keith Law: Uh, no. No.

westin: yordan alvarez incapable of playing 1B, or Astros just being overly cautious?
Keith Law: I think he’s a DH only. Bad body, doesn’t move well.

Chip: Surprised by Will Smith’s start, or has he always had this power?
Keith Law: Dodgers altered his swing to unlock more power before 2018. He’s legit.

Jason: Has Cartaya progressed to the point the Dodgers would be better served dealing Ruiz in the winter to help an area of need?
Keith Law: IMO, yes, he has.

Roger: How did you rate James Kaprielian before the arm injuries?
Keith Law: Potential #1 starter.

Roger Megardy: Does Pete Fairbanks have a future as a legit MLB reliever?
Keith Law: A reliever, yes. A good one, I don’t know.

Joel: Every prospect site I check still has Travis Swaggerty as a promising prospect. I’m scouting the stat line, but I see almost nothing to recommend him as a top prospect dating back to his junior year in a non-elite conference. Can Swaggerty actually be an impact outfielder in the majors?
Keith Law: At this point he won’t be on my top 100. College products pretty much have to hit right away.

JT: You’ve been down on Lamet because of his 2 pitch repertoire (and down is of course relative). Is his breakout as a SP real, or is he still consigned to the late innings with that FB/SL combo?
Keith Law: He’s had a breakout? He’s a two pitch guy, still, and as a result lefties are killing him.

Josh Nelson: What did you like, and dislike, about watching Luis Robert recently?
Keith Law: I disliked all the swinging and missing. I liked that he was actually in the lineup, though. That’s a welcome change for me.

Pat: As to the “open fire in a stadium” question, you don’t need to get in to the stadium. A bigger concern to me is someone opening fire just outside a football or baseball stadium right about 15-30 minutes before gametime when everyone is being herded like cattle thru a few entrances.
Keith Law: I feel like some other writers pointed that out when MLB started this security theater bullshit of metal detectors … they just create vulnerabilities outside the park rather than inside.
Keith Law: I really don’t think I’d attend many MLB games if I had to pay for them and go as a fan, not as a member of the press. The experience of getting to and into most ballparks is too onerous.

El Zilcho: Has there been any change in perception of the Mariners’ player development system over the last couple of years? It seems like it was terrible for so long…
Keith Law: I mean, they have better players now. That sort of helps.

Chris: Regarding today’s ICE raids in MS, why focus on the immigrant worker and not the employer (prosecution is very rare)? I personally don’t approve of either, but if you believe immigration is a problem it seems more pragmatic to focus enforcement efforts at the massive corporations.
Keith Law: Massive corporations tend to donate more to political candidates than undocumented workers do. I think that might be a factor.

Kevin: Would you consider it an accomplishment or a failure if the Dodgers made it to the WS 3 straight years but lost every year
Keith Law: I would. I know Eric said on the pod this morning he would think that would be seen as a failure.

Chris: Amed Rosario turning a corner? I’m still surprised at how bad is defense is, can you explain how scouts missed that?
Keith Law: Scouts didn’t miss it; it has been markedly worse this year than ever before. I don’t know what the Mets are or aren’t doing but it seems like that has to be on the coaching staff.

Jason: Is Trent Grisham legit?
Keith Law: Yes. I’m in.

Chris: Is Tim Beckham’s career over?
Keith Law: Remember those two weeks when Rays fans were apoplectic they traded him and people thought the Orioles had gotten a steal? That was fun.

Kevin: I know Jake Rogers isn’t going be an All-Star but do you think he is a starting C
Keith Law: Maybe with the defense but I don’t think he’s going to hit.

Chris: ETAs for Peterson and Szapucki? Also is Kevin Smith any good?
Keith Law: Next year for Peterson, maybe 2021 for Szapucki, and I have never liked Smith’s movies.

Mucho: How do you manage to get so much done (work, family, reading a thousand books)? Any tips?
Keith Law: I don’t watch much TV at all and now I’m spending less time online (especially Twitter).

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: I’m always curious about discrepancies in rankings (i.e Garcia). You–and people you talk to–have him down. But evaluators at BA, for example, have him in the 2nd half of the Top-100. What do they see you don’t, or vice versa?
Keith Law: No idea. You’d have to ask them. I’ve seen Garcia and talked to many scouts about him. He’s a nice player, but not a top 100 guy. He’s just young.

JT: I still regret that the Jays didn’t get Dom Smith out of the Mets even at the cost of having added another player to the deal. Rowdy is another case you could use as a feather in the cap, by the by.
Keith Law: People complaining to Mike Wilner (a friend from my Toronto days) about my takes on Tellez was fun.

spcohn: Moniak has really picked up performance and has very good numbers (excluding a April) for a 21 yo in AA. I know that you had been down on him in the past…change your view?
Keith Law: Nope. Saw him a month ago. He’s not good. Reading is the best hitter’s environment in the Eastern League, BTW. Didn’t you try to gotcha me over Deivy Grullon back in the spring when he had a hot start? He’s at .236/.314/.390 since June 1st and still can’t catch.

Brian: I’m wondering if you read any of the reporting (especially Matt Gelb’s piece in the Athletic) on why the Phillies are so aggressive pushing kids to Lakewood after you questioned the move. I’d be curious as to your thoughts on their rationale.
Keith Law: I’ll have to check that out, but the proof is in the pudding: I don’t see any players who’ve benefited from that aggressive promotion philosophy in their system. Their Luis Garcia, who does have tools, looks woefully overmatched, and should have been sent down to Williamsport (which he skipped) a month ago. I have seen him three times already and just feel bad for the kid.

Mickey Callaway: Marianne Williamson has policies worth hearing on reparations. She’s not a good candidate, but she’s leading that charge.
Keith Law: She doesn’t belong on the stage. The Democrats are the one party that thinks science is real. Putting an anti-science crank on the debate stages merely cedes one of the party’s actual advantages.

Jay: Joe Ryan, Rays. Decimating Hi-A ball. Aberration, or for real?
Keith Law: He’s killed one tenth of A-ball hitters? Damn. He’s a back-end starter – a real prospect, just not much upside. Tommy Rancel just saw him a few weeks ago but I don’t know if he wrote him up.

Adam: it seems Padres are planning big offseason moves, Everyone other than Gore and Tatis considered untouchable to you?
Keith Law: Patiño too.

Jim: I know you’re not super high on him, but just curious what your thoughts are on Nick Madrigal?
Keith Law: Soft regular. Saw him again Tuesday, will write that game up this afternoon.

Nick G: Not a question, but the difference in where you rank Carter Keiboom and the rest of prospect evaluators is large. If I read correctly, you have Carter outside your top 100 but many outlets have him in their top 25. Not a criticism, I just find that interesting since I typically lean to your opinion.
Keith Law: I don’t know what they think of him. I see a non-shortstop without speed or power. He can hit but he’d have to have a 65 hit tool to be a top 25 prospect for me.

CB: Will we ever see Alex Reyes after this latest setback/reoccurrence of shoulder pain?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t say “never,” but his odds keep going down. I did not like his delivery when I first saw him, and when I last saw him this spring it was the same. Short stride guys tend to get hurt.

Larry: It looks like Zack Collins made a swing adjustment. How do you think it will affect his future outlook?
Keith Law: I just saw him Tuesday. He did not make a swing adjustment. He was also atrocious behind the plate.

Krontz: My 6 yr old son loves Kingdomino and does well with it. Any other game recommendations based on that for him?
Keith Law: I’m glad to hear that – it’s such a good gateway game. Splendor might work. Ticket to Ride or its kids’ version First Journey would be on my list of suggestions. Lost Cities is good if he’s comfortable with numbers (you really just have to be able to order numbers 1-10, as the rest is just a sort of gambling game).

Craig: Can Cavan Biggio be what he has been thus far? An average-ish hitter (factoring in the walks) who is below average defensively but plays enough positions to aid a Major League roster?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: What position can he actually play? He’s been bad everywhere I’ve seen him, and he doesn’t hit.

Jim: Are you buying the breakout from Giolito?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jason: Is there a specific reason for Heliot Ramos’ improvement this year over last year?
Keith Law: Some physical development, some that he was just too young/not ready for low-A.

Sean: Is bukauskas a reliever at this point?
Keith Law: Possible. Would think the Dbacks will try him as a starter for now.

Nathan K: Rosario seems to be improving drastically this summer. Do you still hold him in high regard or do the deficiencies he’s shown to date at the MLB level bring him down future projection-wise
Keith Law: As a hitter, unchanged. But this year at SS has been a disaster.

Jamie: Why wasn’t Yordan on your top 100 before the season?
Keith Law: Because it’s not a list of the top 100 prospects for this season, but for the long term, and it’s not a list of offensive prospects, but of total value. He’s most likely a DH, not a good athlete, and doesn’t move well or project to age particularly easily. He can hit and has power – omitting a player from my top 100, or a midseason top 50, or even a team’s top 10 is not tantamount to saying he’s a bad player or a non-prospect. You’ve probably made one of those mistakes: thinking it’s just about this year, thinking it’s just about offense, or thinking a non top 100 guy must be bad. None of those are true.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – I’ve got to write up the Luis Robert debacle, and then it’s vacation time for me. Thank you all as always for reading and for the kind words after my last few newsletters. I appreciate you all. I’ll be back next Thursday for another chat.

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→ August 8, 2019
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Annihilation (book).

I enjoyed the 2018 film adaptation of Annihilation, a gripping sci-fi horror story starring Natalie Portman as the lead scientist on an expedition into an unknown biological anomaly called “the Shimmer” that has taken over a portion of what is probably the southern United States and appears to be expanding. Previous expeditions have ended in varying disasters; the one preceding Portman’s included her husband, who came back alive but was a shell of his former self. The nature of the Shimmer was never explained, but was also beside the point of the story.

The movie was a very loose adaptation of Jeff VanderMeer’s novel of the same name, the first part of the Southern Reach trilogy. The book is also very good, but there’s not that much in common between the two other than the general setup, the main character’s identity, and her husband’s history on a prior expedition. The movie was a psychological thriller with a touch of violence, preying on your expectations and the constant uncertainty of an essentially alien environment where the rules by which we live in our world no longer applied. The book also has those rules, and the vague sense of horror from the environment, but VanderMeer seems far more interested in exploring the main character than the region, known as Area X, or the mystery behind its creation and expansion.

No characters are named in the book; the narrator is simply the biologist, the character portrayed by Portman in the movie. She’s part of a four-woman expedition along with a psychologist, a surveyor, and an archaeologist; they cross the border into Area X after the psychologist hypnotizes them so they won’t experience or remember it, presumably because the transition is somehow upsetting or traumatic. Inside Area X, they find a pristine ecological habitat with seemingly impossible life forms, including what appears to be living writing on a tower wall, but something in the area is also clearly hostile to their presence. The team itself starts to fall apart between the strain of the mission, one member’s treachery, and the influence of one or more unfriendly life forms in the area. The text is the biologist’s journal of the expedition’s gradual implosion and a document of what she learned while inside Area X about the strange life forms she found there, with intermittent flashbacks to her life before the mission, including her life with her husband before he entered Area X and the brief period after his surprising return.

The assumption is that the biologist at least survives to the end of the book, so the multiple times she appears to be in mortal danger, you know she’s going to make it out alive – but you never know what’s going to happen to the other characters, especially given the high fatality rate on previous expeditions, and Area X itself appears to be some sort of sentient life form and thus another character in the book. VanderMeer focuses as much on the conflict between the biologist and the ecology of Area X as on anything else, using it as a way to explore the psyche of the narrator by putting her into multiple situations where she is both at odds with colleagues on the team and threatened by the immediate environment. Much of what goes awry with the team itself is predictable, at least a general level – we’ve seen plenty of stories in print and film of groups collapsing under pressure – but the bio-horror of Area X is novel and means that she can’t take many basic aspects of life for granted. It’s as if she’s been put into a biological hot zone without adequate protection, and has that stress as well as the stress of the mission, her husband’s vanishing, and the failure of the team to hold together for even a few days after crossing.

This is just part one of three, and it feels incomplete as a result; the world-building aspect is more successful than the biologist’s story. I never felt like I understood her character well, and the journey on which she goes is itself incomplete and a bit unsatisfying. I’ll almost certainly finish the trilogy, though, given how much I enjoyed the world he created and the many mysteries of Area X, even if I never get more details on the biologist’s motivations for doing what she does.

Next up: Still reading The Unbearable Lightness of Being.

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→ August 7, 2019
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Climax.

Gaspar Noé has a strong reputation among critics for provocative movies that often skirt the line of good taste, and seems to revel in his ability to shock or even repulse audiences while similarly challenging them with his stories. This year’s Climax is probably his best-received film, even though it was made with just a loose outline, employed mostly non-actors, and took just a few weeks to film. It’s a nightmare come to life, one that is more revealing than horrifying, but also clearly crosses the line into poor taste.

Climax is based loosely on an actual story of a French dance troupe whose afterparty was spoiled because someone spiked their drinks with LSD, although in that case no serious harm came to any of the dancers. That is not true in Noé’s retelling here, as the party devolves into Lord of the Flies-level savagery because someone spiked the punch, made by the troupe’s den mother Emmanuelle, with LSD or a similar psychotropic drug. (The very end of the film makes it seem like it was LSD, although the dancers never know this.)

Things don’t fall apart until about halfway through the brisk 93-minute film; the first half includes an impressive, long modern dance number that incorporates numerous styles and presents more to the viewer than the eye can possibly follow. The party starts out well enough, but eventually the dancers who drank the punch start to feel unwell; no one speaks of hallucinations, but they become disoriented and paranoid, and start to revert to base instincts. As it becomes clear that the punch was tainted, they begin to band together to try to identify the culprit, blaming Emmanuelle, then blaming the two dancers who didn’t drink it, never considering that the person who spiked the punch may in fact have consumed it themselves. This devolution also sees them lose many of their inhibitions, giving in to violence and sex, and by the time the police arrive the next morning there are several dancers dead or grievously wounded, while others are simply damaged by what’s occurred.

The drugs really are beside the point in Climax, which explores the nature of fear and how quickly we come to distrust others when we think we’re in danger. Noé wrote an outline and some general directions but asked the actors, most of whom were professional dancers without acting experience, to simply act as they would if under the influence, showing them videos of people who’d taken LSD or other hallucinogens. There are two professionals in the cast, Sofia Boutella (Selva) and Souheila Yacoub (Lou), who do more heavy lifting than anyone else, the former as the de facto social leader of the group, the latter the one character with something resembling a storyline.

Noé’s hand is all over the film even though there wasn’t a proper script. There’s one continuous shot that runs over 40 minutes, shifting perspectives and angles, drifting to different characters, that helps convey the dancers’ disorientation to the viewers. He also moved the closing credits to the beginning of the movie, and the typical title card with cast listing to the middle, which felt more like a gimmick to me than an important change. (Plus Adam McKay did it better in Vice.) He made one truly regrettable decision, the part of the film that crosses the line into needless suffering; Emmanuelle’s son is at the party, and while I won’t spoil it, what that child is put through did not need to be in this movie at all. Noé could have accomplished everything he wanted to accomplish without that. Assuming the boy’s inclusion was an active decision by Noé, it was a blatant attempt to shock the audience for shock’s sake.

Several days after watching Climax, I can’t decide if I think the film is good. I would say I didn’t enjoy watching it, because it is so unpleasant (by design) to watch the dancers lose control of themselves and their situation, wandering around a dark building that looks like an abandoned school or mental institution. I also couldn’t stop watching it, and was past the halfway mark before I even thought about how much time might have passed, and it’s certainly had me thinking about it in the time since I watched. There is something essential about stories that remind us of the thin line between the way we live and utter anarchy, of the tiny genetic barrier that separates us from chimpanzees, of the social norms we take for granted that allow us to live our daily lives. When one brick is removed, the entire edifice could collapse. Noé is willing to stare into that abyss and show us what he sees.

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→ August 6, 2019
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A Kiss Before Dying.

Ira Levin wrote seven novels in his long career, as well as the long-running Broadway play Deathtrap, garnering raves from critics and his peers for much of his output despite working across a broad range of themes, with novels as seemingly disparate as Rosemary’s Baby and The Stepford Wives. His debut novel, A Kiss Before Dying, was a straightforward noir thriller, a grim take on a ‘perfect’ murder that uses shifting perspectives to keep the reader guessing in the first half of the novel and raise the stakes for the second half. (It’s out of print; the link above goes to the Kindle version.)

The first third of the novel centers on Dorothy, the daughter of a very wealthy copper magnate, who is dating a charming classmate at her college and has just revealed to him that she’s pregnant, which does not comport with his plans to marry her for her expected inheritance. Assuming she’ll be cut out of her father’s will for becoming pregnant outside of wedlock, the boyfriend first tries to get her to abort the baby and, when that fails, decides to kill her and make it look like a suicide. He succeeds, at least at first, but Dorothy’s sister Ellen can’t believe Dorothy would kill herself – especially since no one knew she was pregnant – and decides to go investigate.

At this point, Levin switches the point of view and you realize that he never named the boyfriend in part one, so you enter the college town with Ellen and share her ignorance of the killer’s identity – just a very rough description of his appearance, which means it could be any of several men, and Levin utilizes that puzzle to ratchet up the tension for the first half or so of Ellen’s section. Once you find out who it is, which I didn’t see coming, the story flips, putting the reader into the chase and the mystery of whether anyone will catch Dorothy’s killer before he kills again while exploring the depths of his sociopathy, eventually introducing us to the girls’ father, Leo, and making him a central character in the story even though he tries to avoid accepting that Dorothy was murdered.

The book has been filmed twice, once in 1956 to positive reviews and once in 1991 to negative ones, although in both cases the screenwriters changed the story enough that I don’t think either could possibly match what Levin accomplished here in the book. The murderer here isn’t so much twisted as callous and insensate, viewing Dorothy as a mark to make himself wealthy, and viewing all of his victims as obstacles, with no apparent compunctions whatsoever about killing to protect his own interests. Levin also takes advantage of the author’s privilege of hiding key information from you that would have to be revealed on a screen, which raises the stakes for the reader, makes the reveal especially potent, and then lets him play with perspective throughout the third part of the book, where you’re unsure if the killer will get away with his crimes or if the ‘good guys’ will figure it out in time. It’s very classic, straight noir, with a dim view of humanity that leans a bit towards Jim Thompson but with more balance between the good and the bad.

Next up: Milan Kundera’s The Unbearable Lightness of Being.

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→ August 5, 2019
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Music update, July 2019.

I always feel a bit disappointed when my monthly playlists are on the short side, like this one is, as if I didn’t look hard enough for good songs. There is so much music released each month that it seems like even a “bad” month should still have at least twenty or so great songs, right? I did look, though, and stalled out with this list, which probably includes a song or two I might have omitted had the list been longer (including a cover and an unreleased track from the 1980s). Anyway, as always, you can access the Spotify playlist directly if you can’t see the widget below.

Prince – Holly Rock. Prince wrote and produced the original “Holly Rock” for Sheila E., whose version appeared on the Krush Groove soundtrack, but this is the first time that his own recording of the song – which is more polished than the demos his estate has been releasing this year – has appeared in official form. It’s vintage Prince with a heavy funk influence and Sheila E.’s ornate percussion work.

Ride – Repetition. I wonder if it’s even fair to call them shoegazers any more; their sound across two albums and a few singles since their return from a 17-year hiatus has been far more upbeat and accessible. It’s a positive evolution, though; I liked their early stuff but have connected more with their post-hiatus output.

Lauren Ruth Ward and Desi Valentine – Same Soul. A very bluesy duet from one of my new favorite singers in Ward and a classic R&B singer in Valentine, who had a modest hit in 2016 with “Fate Don’t Know You.”

Of Monsters and Men – Róróró. The Icelandic band’s third album Fever Dream dropped two Fridays ago, and it’s a definite shift in their sound, with more electronic elements, a mixed bag of a handful of tracks that showcase Nanna Hilmarsdóttir’s voice and others that lose her amidst generic drum machine sounds and weak melodies. This, “Alligator,” and “Wild Roses” are among the highlights.

Frank Turner – The Death of Dora Hand. Turner’s new EP No Man’s Land has three very intimate acoustic tracks that almost feel like Americana (interesting, since he’s English) rather than his usual folk/punk style.

Ceremony – In the Spirit World Now. Ceremony’s transition from hardcore punk band to direct descendants of Joy Division continues with this title track from their forthcoming album, due out August 23rd.

White Reaper – Real Long Time. White Reaper’s punk-pop sound hasn’t failed me yet – they have a real knack for strong, new hooks that always sound just a little bit familiar to me.

DIIV – Skin Game. This is DIIV’s first new track since founder/singer Zachary Cole Smith spent six months in rehab for addiction.

Ben Gibbard – Keep Yourself Warm. This is easily my favorite track from Tiny Changes: A Celebration Of Frightened Rabbit’s ‘The Midnight Organ Fight’, a cover album in memory of the Scottish band’s lead singer Scott Hutchison, who took his own life in May of last year.

Floating Points – Coorabell. The B side to his single “LesAlpx” is also brilliant – another pulsing, driving electronic track that stays accessible despite its experimental leanings.

Just Mustard – October. Speaking of shoegaze, this Irish band’s music might have fit better in that early 1990s movement than it does today.

Vivian Girls – Sick. The Vivs are back together … okay, I didn’t really know their work prior to bassist Katy Goodman’s solo project La Sera, but they’ve now reunited after a five-year absence with their pre-hiatus lineup.

The Struts – Pegasus Seiya. This song doesn’t sound like anything the Struts, who are kind of a glam/pop band with hard rock trappings, have done before – it’s like a strange homage to Judas Priest-era British metal, and I can’t get the thing out of my head.

High on Fire – Bat Salad. This instrumental, part of a three-song EP that includes covers of Celtic Frost and Bad Brains, first appeared for record store day in April, and just hit digital last month. It’s outstanding, and a good track for folks who like heavy guitar riffing but can’t deal with Matt Pike’s yelling vocals.

Opeth – Heart in Hand. Maybe my favorite song of the month, “Heart in Hand” (also released in a version with lyrics in their native Swedish) is a nine-minute prog metal opus that seems to draw equally on the complex progressive styles of 1970s icons like King Crimson while providing more 1980s-level thrash and metal riffing than Opeth has given listeners in their last two albums.

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→ August 3, 2019
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Stick to baseball, 8/3/19.

Busy week on the baseball front; I had five pieces reacting to deadline trades, on the Stroman trade, the Bauer/Puig/Trammell trade, the Greinke deal, the Jesus Sanchez/Trevor Richards trade, and some smaller moves that didn’t merit full writeups. No chat this week as I’m at Gen Con.

I’ll resume my free email newsletter on Monday; I had one mostly written but never had time to finish and send it before the deadline, and while I love TinyLetter it doesn’t work correctly on my iPad.

And now, the links…

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→ August 2, 2019
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Amity and Prosperity.

If you’ve heard of fracking at all, it’s probably for bad reasons; the practice of fracturing rocks to free and capture natural gas has caused substantial environmental damage, from earthquakes to groundwater contamination to air pollution, across wide swaths of the Midwest, down through Oklahoma and Texas. The practice was once hailed as a way for the United States to achieve energy independence, or at least reduce our dependence on oil from the Middle East, and was even embraced by some Democrats, including Barack Obama, who would have said in the next breath that they favored policies to protect the environment.

Eliza Griswold’s Amity and Prosperity: One Family and the Fracturing of America documents the horrendous effects of fracking on one town, Amity, in western Pennsylvania, where the drilling company Range Resources ran amok, ignoring environmental regulations or simply lobbying the state to alter them, sickening local residents – possibly to the point of causing cancer – and making multiple homes unlivable. She reported for eight years on this story, getting close to two mothers in the area in particular whose children and animals were sickened by groundwater and air pollution from Range’s fracking and mishandling of waste materials, and won this year’s Pulitzer Prize for Non-Fiction for this book. No Range executives were fined or charged; the company was only modestly fined, despite violations of environmental regulations and false claims in its advertising; and the homeowners most adversely affected received a pittance after years of litigation against Range and Pennsylvania’s Department of Environmental Protection.

The story all takes place in the northern Appalachian region, atop the Marcellus Shale formation of sedimentary rock, which it turns out contains a large quantity of natural gas that must be retrieved via hydraulic fracturing, now called “fracking” for short. This involves the high-pressure injection of a slurry of water, sand or other proppants, and various additional chemicals to hold the fractures open, reduce friction, lubricate the drill bit, prevent scale deposit buildup, or serve other purposes. The result of the process, in addition to copious supplies of natural gas, is a lot of wastewater that can contain hydrogen sulfide, ethylene glycol, arsenic (released from the rock that has been fractured), and other chemicals or elements that are harmful to human health when ingested or inhaled. The national desire for cheap domestic energy sources, the (mistaken?) belief that natural gas could serve as a “transitional” fuel between coal/oil and renewable energy sources, and extensive lobbying by the oil and gas industry have led to a regulatory environment that is, to a large extent, dictated by the companies the agencies, including Pennsylvania’s toothless DEP, are supposed to be monitoring and sanctioning. The DEP, in this case, was defanged by Democratic governor Ed Rendell, then further hamstrung by Republican governor Tom Corbett and the GOP-controlled legislature, which passed a law that was likely written in large part by the oil and gas lobby; it should surprise no one that the DEP completely whiffed on the Range fracking endeavor in the Marcellus shale region, but it should surprise and enrage you to hear that lawyers for the company and the agency worked together in the lawsuits filed by the sickened homeowners.

Fracking continues largely unabated in states controlled by the Republican Party, which touts their job-creation potential (and that isn’t in dispute) and potential to provide cheap energy from within our borders, although many, many Democratic politicians have gone along with fracking for their own reasons. What is clear, however, is that the process requires substantial regulation if it could ever be made safe for citizens anywhere in the vicinity of the wells. Any drilling within a mile of community water sources puts the water at risk of contamination, and that’s even if the fracking company handles its waste water correctly. Range, according to Griswold, used open waste “ponds” to store its toxic sludge, didn’t line them properly, and then ignored evidence of leaking while fighting any effort to get them to take responsibility. (Several Range executives Griswold named not only escaped any accountability, but have since moved on to better jobs in the industry.) One of the two mothers Griswold profiles, Stacey, kept diligent notes on the appearance of foul odors in the air (hydrogen sulfide, like the smell of rotten eggs, which can indicate bacterial contamination as well) and the increasing illnesses of her kids, one of whom missed a year of school because of fracking pollution, and the deaths of many of her animals. Yet despite all of this evidence, the state of Pennsylvania tried to pass a law, some of which was struck down by the state Supreme Court (but not all!), that would have prevented local governments from banning or regulating fracking in their area; prevented doctors from discussing poisoning cases possibly caused by fracking with each other; and excluded private water wells from pollution/leakage notification requirements.

Griswold’s telling of this story is fundamentally humanist – she never, at any point, loses sight of the people suffering from Range’s actions, the people who reside at the heart of the book – but it is also very much a story of institutional failure. Pennsyvlania, which was gerrymandered into another dimension, let many of its citizens down in the most basic way. We take certain government protections for granted, yet here, the people who were supposed to be protecting the state’s water, air, and land resources – it’s one of only three states with an environmental rights amendment to its state constitution – did no such thing; at best, they looked the other way when Range wanted to drill and frack, and at worst, they aided and abetted the polluters, including helping them fight against the state’s own citizens when the latter tried to assert their rights under the amendment. It bears repeating: Pennsylvania didn’t just do nothing. They worked against their own citizens. If you live there, you should be angry. If you live anywhere in the United States, but especially somewhere where there’s fracking, you should be angry. Once this garbage is in the groundwater, entire towns will become unlivable, maybe for generations. If you’re cool with wide swaths of Oklahoma looking like the Love Canal, I guess that’s your choice, but I wasn’t okay with it before I read Amity and Prosperity and I sure as hell am not okay with it now.

Next up: Jeff Vandermeer’s Annihilation, the story of how he threw two consecutive no-hitters.

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→ July 31, 2019
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Raiders of the North Sea.

The tabletop game Raiders of the North Sea was the first of Shem Phillips’ series of worker placement games that will reach its fifth title this fall with the release of Paladins of the West Kingdom, and earned a Kennerspiel des Jahres nomination in 2017, two years after its initial appearance. (I didn’t review or rank it that year because it wasn’t actually a new title; release dates in the board game world are a nebulous thing, and I’m sure I’ve missed titles here and there because of it.) Each game in the series, which includes three North Sea games and now two West Kingdom titles, has some different quirk in how you place or use your meeples, part of how Phillips has managed to extend one theme over so many different titles.

Raiders of the North Sea now has a gorgeous app adaptation from Dire Wolf Digital, makers of the app versions of Lanterns and Lotus as well as the digital card game Eternal (soon coming to tabletop), although I think the initial release of the app could use some updates. If you haven’t played the physical game, or like me had very little experience with it, it’s a great introduction to the title, but I did find that after a handful of plays I was too good for the one AI level included in the app.

Raiders of the North Sea

The Raiders board has two parts – the village where you’ll place meeples to recruit warriors, collect food, and exchange plunder for more food or for points; and the various harbors, outposts, and fortresses you’ll raid over the course of the game for points and glory. The big difference between this and most worker placement games is that all meeples are shared, and you get two actions on your turn: one when you place the meeple you had to start the turn somewhere in the village, then a second when you remove a meeple from another location in the village. Each location has a unique action, and you thus get two different actions on every turn when you do stuff in the village. Once you have enough warriors, food, and sometimes gold to go raiding, you instead use one meeple to go attack a specific location on the top of the board, taking the plunder shown on that space, gaining a different meeple, and possibly getting points if your warriors’ total strength exceeds the lowest listed value on the space. (You always get the plunder, even if you’re not strong enough.) Most spaces you’ll raid include one or more black skulls, which means you’ll have to sacrifice one of your warriors, sending them to Valhalla, when you attack.

The new app looks fantastic, and the animations for the attacks are particularly fun. Dire Wolf has taken all of the game’s distinctive artwork, animating some portions of it and pulling some of the character images off the cards to show who’s in your crew (as opposed to the characters still in your hand). Their decision to depict the board isometrically was brilliant; the physical board is big and quite long north to south, and the app only shows you a portion at a time – the village fits into a single screen, and then you can scroll up to see all of the potential targets for attacks.

I did have a few small technical issues, including occasional crashes when first loading and difficulty moving the meeple from the lower right corner of the screen to place it if I had the map oriented in a way that there was a village location too close to the same spot. The app only comes with one AI level right now, and I found it too easy, mostly because it would do suboptimal things like attack some targets without sufficient strength to garner points. I also would love a one-touch way to jump between the top and bottom halves of the board, as scrolling is awkward, and the app doesn’t automatically reset you to the village after an opponent attacks.

The app also comes with a campaign mode that includes multiple rules variants, most of which are fun and require you to think a little differently, although I don’t think the campaign bears playing more than once. It’s similar to the campaign mode in Jaipur, but those variants were good enough to try multiple times, while here I always felt like the variations were cool but not as good as the base game.

Games take 10-20 minutes against the AI, depending on how quickly you try to move to the top; I’ve found the long play is best for beating the current AI options, because they don’t try to rack up the largest bonuses up top. I am assuming/hoping some of the minor bugs will disappear with updates, along with a stronger AI option, because the way this app plays and looks is outstanding.

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→ July 30, 2019
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Curios.

Curios, which will be released this week at Gen Con, is a fun trifle of a deduction game, playing two to five players in a very quick little game that asks you to bet on which of four ‘artifacts’ will prove most valuable based on the cards in y our hand and those you see. It’s a clever little idea that could probably have been built into a more significant game, but instead it’s a fast-playing filler.

The heart of Curios is a deck of sixteen cards in the four colors of the artifacts, showing the values 1, 3, 5, and 7 for each. Regardless of player count, the dealer sets up the game by dealing one random card from each color, face down, next to each artifact’s card, which will be the value of those artifacts when the game ends. Each player then gets some cards at random to start the game, the number depending on the player count, and will then place their tokens on each of the artifact cards to claim artifacts based on the values they deduce from the cards they hold and others revealed during the game. Once the supplies of two of the four artifacts are exhausted, the game ends; the four hidden values are revealed and players add up the values of the artifacts they’ve collected during the game.

Where the game goes a bit awry for me is in the way the players claim those artifacts. Each card has columns with one space, two, three, and four columns (two); to place your tokens on a card, you must fill the leftmost empty column. You start the game with five such tokens, so you run out of ways to bid on different artifacts very quickly in each round. When you fill a column on a card, you take one artifact of that color; when all players have placed all of their tokens (or can’t place any more), the player with the most tokens on each card gets a bonus artifact.

At the end of a round, each player may choose to reveal one of their hand cards and gain an extra token for the next round. The benefit of having an additional token probably justifies doing this, although by revealing a card you share useful information with other players; in a five-player game, you only get two cards apiece, so it may make more sense to hold one back there than in a two-player game, where you each get four cards. Regardless of player count, the way the columns work means you find it very hard to ‘bet’ on more than one artifact in a round, which means that you end up with a lot of luck involved in every game – maybe too much in a game of deduction, especially with five players. I think it’s ideal with three, and it works as well with two because you set up a neutral third deck of the remaining four cards and reveal one each round, and it’s pretty portable, so as a quick filler game for travel that can introduce novice players to deduction games, it’s fine, but I prefer deduction games that rely more on your mind and less on luck.

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