Klawchat 1/16/20.

Starting at 1 pm ET. I have two new posts up at the Athletic – a breakdown of the Twins signing Josh Donaldson and a brief look at the ten best prospects to change teams this offseason. My latest board game review for Paste covers The Taverns of Tiefenthal, a great new midweight title from the designer of The Mind, That’s Pretty Clever!, and The Quacks of Quedlinburg.


Keith Law: We already did this. Klawchat.

JR: What are your thoughts on Beltran’s involvement with the Astros scandal? Should he be fired as Mets manager? Or does the fact that he was a player at the time and not management absolve him and he shouldn’t be fired?
Keith Law: I’m not sure why players were absolved en masse, but Beltrán’s status as player at the time doesn’t exculpate him, and yes, I think the Mets should move on.

addoeh: Which would have been worse for the Astros, losing their 1st and 2nd round picks for the next two drafts or being frozen out of the international market for two years?
Keith Law: I think the draft.

Wyatt : A different type of Question for You: Do you Prefer light or dark mode on your iPhone?
Keith Law: Light mode is substantially better for your eyes.

Mike: Hi, Keith! I write quite often for my occupation and was wondering what laptop / computer you prefer when writing?
Keith Law: I write on both my windows laptop and my iPad, depending on where I am and what I’m writing.

Greg: Hey, Keith. So glad you’re at the Athletic now. Will you still be able to do ESPN hits though? I know you just left, but there are still people from the Athletic on there all the time (though I can’t think of many who went straight from ESPN to the Athletic).
Keith Law: There’s nothing preventing me from doing so, but then again, they just put a part-time MLB team employee on to comment on an issue that touches the team that employs them, so … maybe not?

Mark: People follow you for your strong opinions. You were a huge supporter of Cora, are you disappointed that someone you thought so highly of, was a large part of this whole sign stealing fiasco? Or, is it more, oh well it was just my guy that got caught?
Keith Law: I am disappointed. I advocated for Alex for years, publicly and privately, because I believed he’d be excellent at the job. I never once expected an outcome like this – if you’d asked me about his integrity at the time I would have said I had zero concerns about it whatsoever.

CyMature: Hi Keith. Has Alex Kirillof “gone backwards?” Injuries? Out of shape?
Keith Law: Uh, what? This is arrant nonsense.

Steve: Granted, everyone needs more pitching but how do you see things shaking out for the White Sox rotation in 2020? Keuchel and Giolito seem like they should give 6+ most of the time. But Lopez gonna Lopez, Gio Gonzalez had a dead arm most of last year, Kopech is going to have some sort of post-TJS innings cap and Cease is sort of a wild card. Tandem starts part of the solution?
Keith Law: Don’t know that I buy your pessimism on Gio, but I agree Lopez remains ill-suited to starting, and they might need another fifth-starter/depth guy. I don’t think it’s out of the question that Stiever makes some starts for them this year.

Greg: A vocal minority of Phillies fans seem to read that Maikel Franco is in FL working in cages and getting to know his new KC teammates and think that THIS is HIS YEAR. Especially now that “he’s free of Kapler and his launch angle nonsense.” This is nuts, right? He’s been in the majors 5 years. And it’s not like he didn’t play for two other managers before Kapler.
Keith Law: That’s nuts. Franco’s issue was never launch angle-related. His approach hasn’t improved since double-A.

Matt: You’re transparent about prospects you whiff on. How about a boardgame. What game did you review too harshly or what game grew on you over time? Any game you reviewed too generously In hindsight? Appreciate your game reviews. Currently playing Imhotep Duel heavily thanks to your review.
Keith Law: I was definitely too high on Bruges and Skyward on first plays. Bruges in particular started to annoy me the more I played (online) because you’re so at the mercy of the cards you draw. It’s a shame as I think there’s a good idea inside there somewhere.

TomBruno23: In your review of Dark Money you mentioned not buying Georgia Pacific products. What about investing? I lean to the left on many issues, but also have holdings in Exxon Mobil and who know what else in some of these mutual funds. Can I still sleep well at night?
Keith Law: For folks who didn’t read that review, I don’t believe individual ‘boycotts’ like that accomplish anything but to make the individual feel better. I try not to buy products from companies owned by Koch industries, I’d never shop at Menard’s, etc. I wouldn’t make direct purchases of stocks in such companies, but I don’t think investing passively in them via index funds is morally questionable. YMMV.

Burton Ernie: Do you see Hinch, Cora or Lunhow (and possibly Beltran) working again in baseball? I think teams wouldn’t want to deal with the fallout.
Keith Law: Yes, maybe (depending on the penalty), unlikely, in that order.

Moe Mentum: Which repeal of an archaic democratic system is the bigger no-brainer – the electoral college, or Iowa/New Hampshire always launching primary season?
Keith Law: Well, both, but I think the Iowa/NH thing would be easier to uproot.

David: Should KeBryan Hayes start the year as Pittsburgh’s starting 3B or does he need more time in AAA? I feel like he is currently the team’s best option, but didn’t know if he was ready yet. (I say all of this knowing they will probably play with his service time and hold him down until July.)
Keith Law: Glove is ready, bat perhaps not, but I also don’t see the harm in starting him now and letting him work with the big league coaches, since he has a full year in AAA already.

Tom: What can a healthy Jordan Montgomery look like?
Keith Law: Fifth starter.

Moe Mentum: What’s Adam Haseley’s ceiling, and has it improved since his major league debut last season?
Keith Law: His ceiling would not have changed just by reaching the majors. A player’s ceiling is his ultimate outcome, a best case scenario based on what he is now and what scouts or analysts project him to become. Getting to the majors doesn’t change that.

mike: If you were the Wilpons (thankfully for you you aren’t), what would you do about Beltran?
Keith Law: Part ways with him.

Ron: Hi Keith- If they would be so inclined, what would it take for the Twins to get Gray from the Rockies? Would Rosario, Gordon, Larnach, Rooker do it or would you have to include a Graterol or Balazovic instead? Thanks
Keith Law: I can’t imagine the Rockies deal Gray and don’t demand one of the Twins’ top four prospects.

Ben: Hi Klaw. With the Donaldson upgrade, should the Twins still look to trade for a pitcher right now? Or, at this point, would it make more sense for them to roll with what they have to start the year, hope they can compete in the regular season like last year, and look to upgrade for “impact” pitching at the deadline when they see how the team shakes out?
Keith Law: They’ve added a lot of pitching already, just not famous pitching.

Dr. Bob: Hi, Keith. The Astros have had a problem with their circle-the-wagons culture and lack of transparency. So they’re looking at Buck Showalter to manage?
Keith Law: Well, if you want someone to come in and impose order, he’s a good choice.

BigDaddeh: Do you think Bernie said a woman couldn’t win?
Keith Law: I think people who’ve defended him, claiming he didn’t/couldn’t have said that, are basing it on their fandom rather than any rational arguments. This coming out presented nothing but downside for Warren, and I think it’s imperfectly analogous to how we treat women who accuse powerful men of harassment and are disbelieved because the accusations are inconvenient. (Meanwhile, The Met Philly is hosting Louis C.K.’s new tour. I’ll cross that venue off my list.)

Matt: Cora is getting a lifetime ban isn’t he?
Keith Law: This is my fear, given the delay in announcing it.

Youngman: What are thoughts on Kyle Wright? Just seems like he’s not meeting expectations and for his age should already be more established.
Keith Law: I don’t agree with anything in that second sentence, sorry.

Alex: What is Emerson Hancock’s upside? Potential ace, Top of rotation, etc– and what is holding him back (other than health)
Keith Law: Best or second-best college starter in the class. Above-average or better starter upside. Health is the major concern.

Ed: Will you reveal your Hall ballot this year? Presumably on the Athletic, if you do …
Keith Law: That is/was my plan.

Aaron C.: Been eyeing pork belly at Costco. You’ve made homemade bacon before, yes? Ruhlman’s recipe from “20”? Any tips/lessons learned?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s the recipe I used, hardest part was maintaining the temperature of the smoker (keeping it from varying too much either way).

ck: Reading Bud Selig’s book. He constantly insists teams were losing money. I know he obviously has his own angle, but could this be true?
Keith Law: No, it’s not true, but I suppose if you repeat a lie often enough eventually you start to believe it.

Guest: And now Beltran is stepping down. Who do the Mets hire now?
Keith Law: Heh, happened right after I started this chat, so I didn’t see it. It’s the right move. Also, this is unrelated, but Beltrán had absolutely no experience relevant to the job. The Mets could end up better off in the end, assuming they hire someone who has some relevant experience.

Chris: I thought the Nats pivoting to Harris and Hudson was solid. They keep cheap, IMO.
Keith Law: They stay flexible, but I don’t think they’ve done poorly and wouldn’t say they were “cheap,” not after they paid to keep Strasburg.

Dave: Which CTY site did you attend? (Dickinson ’95-’97 here)
Keith Law: Franklin & Marshall, ’86-88.

Tyler: Do you think Mitch Haniger is worth a Top 100 prospect in trade?
Keith Law: Probably.

Jason: Thoughts on former colleague Jessica Mendoza’s comments this morning? Should she have to choose between being an ESPN analyst or being a Mets rep?
Keith Law: Yes, she should. You can’t do both. I don’t think she should have commented this morning, and I don’t think the producer(s) in question should have even asked her to do so.
Keith Law: I can’t work for a team. It would present me with endless, insoluble conflicts of interest.

John S: Is predicting pitchers’ health in five years is such a futile exercise that the Padres should just call up Gore?
Keith Law: I mean, you’re not wrong. I don’t know if you’re right, but I know you’re not wrong.

Dave: Can you expand on your answer re: loss of draft picks vs. loss of access to int’l market? Essentially, why do you think draft picks would be dearer?
Keith Law: Those players are two to five years older than July 2nd players and thus much closer to major-league value.

rufreshterp: Can Carter Kieboom play the outfield or is he stuck at 2B/3B? I’ve heard some scouts question his eyes in the outfield (ability to pick up the ball off the bat) so don’t know if OF is viable for him going forward.
Keith Law: Has he played the OF enough to say that? I don’t think so. He’ll be fine at 2b or 3b. I don’t think he can handle SS at all.

Dungeon Master: KLaw, really excited to see you at The Athletic, especially as the timing lined up perfectly with the expiration of my ESPN+ subscription.
Keith Law: That was a big part of my decision. I told my agent we have to delay this until Dungeon Master’s subscription to ESPN+ expires.

Nick: As an Indians fan, am I just off my rocker to expect Ethan Hankins to have a breakout season that launches him into the top 100?
Keith Law: I would bet against that right now.

Bill: Who was punished worse by MLB, the Braves for their signing infractions or the Astros for cheating in games?
Keith Law: Coppolella’s punishment seems even more egregious now with these punishments. Of course, he was accused of violating rules designed to keep owners from having to spend more money on players, and that is an eternal sin in the church of baseball.

Aaron C.: Please rank, in order of deliciousness, pancakes, waffles and French toast.
Keith Law: Waffles. You can have the other two if I get all the waffles.

Scott: Any plans to come through Louisville again this college baseball season?
Keith Law: Not on my current schedule but that can always be subject to change. Nashville and Athens are on the schedule, though.

Bryan: What are your Top 3 board games for families with young kids?
Keith Law: Depends on how young, but if you’re looking for stuff for kids old enough to play family games (not just kid games), I’d say Ticket to Ride, Splendor, and King of Tokyo.

TP: Since you are no longer working for ESPN, any plans to move out of Delaware?
Keith Law: Those two things are not related at all.
Keith Law: And no, I’m not moving.

Guest: What do you make of thr moved St Louis has made. They’ve taken talent away from the major league roster without really replacing it. Are they looking to improve this year or eyeing the future? And for the record i Dont think they will add Arenado. Just not a move they typically make
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re done.

JC: Your Donaldson writeup made the Braves current situations seem…bleak at best, but if you are the Rockies, are you even interested in Riley as part of a return? Is he the type of cheap guy with upside you
Keith Law: Colorado could certainly put together a strong package of Atlanta prospects – Waters/Pache plus two of the better arms plus one of the two catchers – that would make the deal worth their while. Riley isn’t necessary.

Bruce: I know you are a fan of Agatha Christie. Having never read any of her books, which ones would you suggest I read?
Keith Law: I think Death on the Nile is the first Poirot novel … I’d start there. It’s not necessary but it does introduce the character.

Nolan: Which is more likely for 2020: Wil Myers has an above average year at the plate, Franchy Cordero plays more than 100 games, or Manuel Margot improves his offense enough to become a 3 win player?
Keith Law: Myers least likely of the three.

Zach D: Trump tax cuts saved the 6 biggest banks $32billion lol (https://news.yahoo.com/trump-tax-cut-hands-32-171229065.html)
Keith Law: Just as his supporters intended, I’m sure.

Jason: I initially thought absolving the players was utter nonsense, but it did resonate that many of the players are not on the Astros anymore. If you punish the player, you’re punishing other teams, including teams that will play the Astros this year. I’m not sure how you solve that problem. What did you have in mind?
Keith Law: Why couldn’t you just fine the players? How does that punish their new employers?

Darren: Now that the Joker movie has won some awards and nominated in many categories for the Oscars, are you interested in seeing it? It’s similar to Black Panther that it is not just good for a comic book movie, it’s a great movie.
Keith Law: I will see it for completeness’ sake, but I don’t believe that it’s a “great movie.” I guess we’ll see.

TP: How many of the players on your Top 100 prospects list will you have evaluated in person?
Keith Law: It’s usually around 70, with some variance of course.

Tony: Keith, a real draft question to put our expectations in perspective. I have a draft eligible son here in Wisconsin. Currently theres snow and 25 degrees. He’s a RHP and we know how the cold effects pitchers arms. We are all aware of Gavin Lux and think his situation is fantastic for him, his family, and our state. However my concern is that his draft result is anomaly. Wondering with your pro background, considering the climate, the likelyhood of upper level scouts coming to games, and the lack of good “looks” for my son due to the snow, and no directors coming to see him until May, what is the reality of him having a true shot of being drafted within the first couple rounds? My concern is the deck is really stacked against him with things out of his control. Even if he is as good/better than another pitcher his age from FL or CA, I worry by the time an executive comes to see him in May that it is too late to warrant a top 2 round selection. Therefore our only hope is a potential overpay later on. True?
Keith Law: Lux, Kelenic, and Rortvedt were all Wisconsin HS kids who went on day one in the last four years. I don’t know who your son is, obviously, so I can’t comment on his outlook, but if he’s already on scouts’ radar now, he’ll be seen. My concern would be if he wasn’t that well known enough now that teams aren’t already planning to see him, since the window to scout a player in the tundra is pretty short.

Don Gately: Any plans to read Trust Exercise?
Keith Law: I don’t really plan to read many books far in advance … that’s a possible Pulitzer winner, so maybe I’ll read it. I’m just finishing up Michael Kinch’s Between Hope and Fear: A History of Vaccines and Human Immunity, which also explains how anti-vaxxers are the worst people on earth.

Bryan: Is Nolan Jones a .300/.400/.500 guy at peak or is that overly optimistic?
Keith Law: That’s really optimistic.

Daniel: Rough day for Puerto Rican managers
Keith Law: Ugh, I didn’t even think of that, but yes, it is. Bad week for diversity in a field that needed it, too.

Thomas: Hi Keith;
Congrats on your move to The Athletic (and a bonus for me since I already subscribe). Since I think it went down just as your ESPN contract was finishing, I didn’t see you do any write-up on the Jays’ signing of Ryu. Curious about your thoughts on it. Thanks!
Keith Law: Great move. I was technically on vacation when that happened – my last work day at ESPN was 12/19, then I used some vacation days and had the holidays, so we wouldn’t get the weird situation of me writing for ESPN on Monday and then showing up at the Athletic three days later or something.

Mike S: HI Keith, Do you believe trammel or grisham can be an everyday CF? The Padres seem to believe so, while the public opinion greatly differs.
Keith Law: Centerfield? They don’t think that. And I don’t either. Trammell doesn’t have the arm for it and Grisham definitely doesn’t have the range.

Aaron: Given 600 AB this year, you would put the Austin Riley strikeout total at ___.
Keith Law: 200+, but I don’t think he gets 600 AB.
Keith Law: I’d feel better about Camargo splitting the difference between 2018 and 2019 than I would about Riley hitting better enough in the majors to justify playing him.

Lars: What is a gender-neutral replacement for sir/ma’am? I know it’s a little dated, but I live in an area where it’s common to use those terms and I’d like to find a compromise (show respect, but not in a gendered way).
Keith Law: That’s an interesting question – I don’t know the answer.

Matt: Beltran is gone. Rosenthal reported it 5 min ago
Keith Law: Bear in mind that I see questions here often several minutes after you post them – I’m 23 minutes behind in the queue right now.

Don Gately: Holding hope that Walker gets the HoF nod this year?
Keith Law: I would love to see that. I voted for him.

Scherzers_Blue_Eye: The Mets get a lot of flack, but how poorly run are the Rockies, already looking to deal Arenado a year after his mega-deal?
Keith Law: They’re probably the front office with whose moves and strategy I disagree most right now. Not saying I’m right, by any stretch, but that I think I don’t understand what they’re doing, at least more so than I do for other orgs.

Noah: Why wohld the Rays give Matthew Liberatore up seemingly so easily. Any red flags?
Keith Law: No red flags. I’ve looked into it.

Extra Spicy: With three managerial openings and Dusty Baker still wanting to manage, do you think he gets one of the jobs? And do you think he’ll be good at it?
Keith Law: Given where we are in the calendar, yes, I do, and I would like to think – given his improvement each stop – he would indeed be good at it.

John: Nolan Arenado has a OPS of 770 to 880 away from Coors the past 3 yrs w/ a batting avg around 260-275. Does that mean he’s a Moustakas or Chapman offensive type talent if he gets traded?
Keith Law: There’s 25 years of data now that you can’t just look at the road stats of Rockies’ hitters to project what they’ll do away from Coors (or Mile High). I think he’ll continue to hit at a well above-average level.

Kevin: Can we get Jim Leyland back as a manager just to get shots of him smoking cigarettes in the dugout?
Keith Law: He’d probably be Juuling.

Jeff: Which Corbin will have the better 2020 as a starter – Burnes or Martin? Patrick will obviously top the list.
Keith Law: Still very high on Martin when he returns, but that probably won’t be in 2020. Burnes I think has a mechanical adjustment to make to get back to where he was in 2018, but I don’t see any reason he can’t do so.

Grant: Judas Priest got passed over for the Hall of Fame. I mean come on…
Keith Law: The R&R Hall is kind of a joke. It’s like if the Baseball Hall didn’t have the writers vote, and just used the crony committees for every selection. Priest, Pat Benatar, Motorhead, and Soundgarden were all snubbed and all have excellent cases (Soundgarden especially as influencers, and I guess Benatar for similar reasons as the rare woman in rock, although I’ll never get over how bad the “Love is a Battlefield” video is).

Matt W: Any chance Eduardo Perez would still take the Mets job? Otherwise it seems like it’ll be Jeff Wilpon as Mr. Manager
Keith Law: I’d support that.

Larry: Fangraphs mentioned Corbin Carroll’s exit velocity being surprisingly high. Do you think he has 25+ home run upside? If so, that probably makes him a superstar, no?
Keith Law: He might be a superstar, yes. He has more power than people expect given his height. I had him #4 in the draft class for a reason (that reason being I think he’s a star).

addoeh: If you gave me a choice for “Emerson Hancock, college baseball pitcher or signer of the Declaration of Independence” I would have chosen the latter.
Keith Law: I swear I made that exact joke to Emma Span the other day.
Keith Law: Three of the four 1-1 candidates have great names. Hancock is one. Spencer Torkelson is another. Austin Martin is practically a British luxury car brand. Poor JT Ginn is so ordinary in comparison.

Ridley: Do you watch any online/YouTube cooking shows? We’ve been, um, binging “Binging with Babish” and “What’s Eating Dan” and I find myself enjoying them far more than anything that’s being broadcast these days.
Keith Law: I haven’t – the only cooking show I’ve watched in the last year is GBBO.

Robert: Watching Luis Robert, I am impressed by how hard he plays (scoring from 2nd on a sac fly, beating out infield grounders, etc.). If he wasn’t so physically gifted, would he be more likely to get the “grinder” label?
Keith Law: Well, that’s one reason he’s not tabbed as a “grinder,” but there’s a more prominent reason I can think of…

Dan: Unless Costco has become a purveyor of high-quality meat, I would really suggest not purchasing pork belly there. Find a local small producer and support them. Yes it will be quite a bit more expensive, but meat should be. There’s a reason most of humanity didn’t eat it in large quantities until pretty recently.
Keith Law: I missed that but yes, I don’t buy much red meat these days anyway, but when I do it’s from Whole Foods or a local butcher. That’s a privilege I have, of course, but also I’d rather spend more per pound but buy less of it in total.

Drew_Tomlinson: Where do you think board games go from here? Already some discussion the bubble is bursting.
Keith Law: I haven’t heard any such discussion. I do think there are too many games getting released, but that’s not the same thing; the level of demand is nowhere close to its potential.

Mike: Is organic fruit BS ?
Keith Law: I mean, it’s organic, it’s just not any better for you. Buy what tastes best. That’s probably local; it might be organic but doesn’t have to be. I think organic makes the most difference in eggs, to be honest; unless you can get eggs from a local farm organic eggs will probably give you the highest quality (especially the strongest membrane around the yolk, so they stay intact while cooking).

Dave: Losing their 1st and 2nd round picks effectively tanks their entire drafts, right? Something like 60% of the total slot $ is tied up in those two picks.
Keith Law: Yes, teams that have had this situation recently have gotten nothing from their drafts: the Cubs in 2016 and Cardinals in 2017 had zero day-one picks between them, and neither has produced a big leaguer or a significant prospect yet.

Matt: Favorite Richard Russo book?
Keith Law: 1. Empire Falls 2. Straight Man 3. Nobody’s Fool 4. The Risk Pool

KT: do you plan on watching 1917?
Keith Law: I plan to see the remaining four Best Picture nominees I haven’t seen – that, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, and Ford v. Ferrari – even though I can’t say I’m terribly excited about any of them. I just like to talk about the awards, and to do that you have to see all or most of the nominees. I will see all the international & animated nominees too.

Matt: Chris Shaw anything more than replacement-level in San Fran?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Jake: Do you find any benefit from self-journaling?
Keith Law: I have never done so, sorry.

Matt: Mendoza just released a statement saying that being an employee of the Mets doesn’t shape her opinion LOL. She must be reading the chat.
Keith Law: The criticism of those comments has been very widespread.

Chris: Hi Keith, Based on initial pro scouting looks are their any recent draft picks that you have heard being ranked higher than where they were picked last summer?
Keith Law: You’ll see in a month.
Keith Law: Actually it might be the week of 2/24, rather than 2/17. It’s my editors’ call but I believe it’ll be the former (later).

Mark: What do you see as the most likely role for Jazz Chisholm?
Keith Law: Star at shortstop.

Ben Z: Florence Pugh is now signed up to be in a bunch of Marvel movies. Let us wallow in sadness.
Keith Law: Well, good for her for getting paid, I guess.

Nolan: Keith, I live in a capitol city with truly dismal bagel options. I’ve toyed around with the idea of trying to make my own (on a small scale, at least at first) but ideally I’d like to replicate Montreal style bagels, which need a wood oven. Do you know of any way to replicate that process without actually having a wood oven?
Keith Law: I have made NY-style bagels with a baking soda solution for boiling (no lye, that seemed excessive) and was happy with the results, although I clearly need work on shaping.

Turner : Hi Keith. I’m leading an after school board game club and would like to add a few games from your list. Any suggestions for 10-14 year olds that can be played in an hour or less?
Keith Law: Any of the games I mentioned above would be good for this group. You could expand a bit with Carcassonne, Wingspan (if you can find it), Pandemic, New Bedford, Sagrada, Azul.

Will: Favorite Rush era?
Keith Law: I don’t think of them in terms of eras; I thought the Chronicles two-disc greatest hits set was incredible, but didn’t listen to anything after Roll the Bones (which was not good).

Jay: Proper response to Grant’s R&R HOF comment was that if they think they can keep Priest out they’ve got another thing coming (sorry)
Keith Law: Nice.

Guest: What is your favorite restaurant in the Phoenix area? -Tom J. Gilbert AZ
Keith Law: The Hillside Spot, Crepe Bar, FnB.

Porker: Not to mention, this administration removed quality standards on pork, so all the more important to know where it’s sourced.
Keith Law: The rollbacks in food quality, food safety, and environmental regulations should be the ideal talking point for whoever the Democratic candidate is, because those rules affect every single American, and rollbacks disproportionately hurt those less well-off who lack the resources or even the options that others have (to, say, buy meat at Whole Foods).

Mike Rizzo: If I offer Rutledge, Kieboom amd say tres barrera get me Kris Bryant?
Keith Law: No.

Frank: On your top 10 pros to be traded, how highly rated are they? Are we talking top 50, 100 or fringe level. Thanks
Keith Law: I think only two were on my top 100.
Keith Law: were/would be/whatever, it’s late

Chris: Which is more difficult to learn/teach: Wingspan or Taverns of Tiefenthal?
Keith Law: Taverns is a bit more involved because you have a lot to think about, but I found the turns really rolled (pun intended) once we got into it.

Ben Z: Holy god Joker is not a great movie. Phoenix is admirably going for it, but hes basically Freddie Quill from The Master (an actual masterpiece) but in a Scorsese rip off with no intellectual coherence.
Keith Law: Enough critics and people whose opinions on movies I value and trust have said this, or something similar to it, that I have my doubts that it is worth the accolades it’s received. I’ll see for myself soon.

John: Do you mind if your fans ask you questions about prospects under your articles on FB?
Keith Law: I don’t mind questions at all, but bear in mind I can’t answer every question I’m asked across all fora – I just don’t have time.

James: Any thoughts on the record breaking salary arbitrations? Bellinger, Betts, etc.?
Keith Law: Good. Owners are rolling in it. The players should get paid too.

Ryan: Per your recommendation, my wife and I had a date night just sitting at a bar playing 7 Wonders Duel. It was really enjoyable, thank you!
Keith Law: Love it. I feel like I see folks playing games in public more often now than I did five years ago – but maybe I just didn’t notice it before I was looking.

Brian: What did you eat at the meal at the Love that made it your favorite? I really enjoy it there, but it’s never struck me as being truly great (like Vernick or Vetri), but more very good.
Keith Law: Vernick remains the worst high-end meal I’ve had in Philly. An abject disaster, with one dish coming out burned. It was a process failure.
Keith Law: We had a pasta dish and a chocolate mousse, neither of which is on the menu now.

John-MN: I home make bagels with the baking soda bath too, you also want to get diastatic malt from a home brewing shop as well for the water bath, both for color and flavoring.
Keith Law: Interesting, haven’t heard that.
Keith Law: Thank you.

Dylan: How long does it take you to write a top 100 or top 50 prospect rankings
Keith Law: The top 100 takes about 4-5 weeks in total.

Kyle: what is your suggestion for someone easing alcohol use? AA? Other program? Therapist?
Keith Law: That’s definitely a question for a professional – ask a doctor.

Matt P: What specifically drew you to Vermont and is it the same thing(s) that keep you there?
Keith Law: Well, I’m not in Vermont, so … nothing? Also it’s really cold up there. There isn’t enough maple syrup in the world to overcome that.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions & for reading. Stay tuned for updates on the top 100, and remember you can pre-order my next book, The Inside Game, right now via Harper Collins or wherever fine books are sold.

Hustlers.

Monday’s announcements of the nominations for this year’s Academy Awards were unsurprising and kind of disappointing; the Academy’s one brief moment of acknowledging art outside of the mainstream, when Moonlight won Best Picture in absurd fashion, wasn’t a harbinger of a change in the electorate’s inclinations, but a blip on the timeline. The Academy remains as conservative and insular as ever, nominating five men for Best Director in a year with many deserving women, and snubbing many performances from films outside of the mainstream in favor of giving nods to bigger stars from more commercial films.

One of those snubs was Jennifer Lopez, who plays a supporting role that is absolutely critical to the success of Hustlers (available to rent on amazon and iTunes), a movie I liked more than I expected and in large part enjoyed because Lopez is so damn good. As Ramona Vega, the ringleader of the larceny scam that involves the lead character Dorothy/Destiny (Constance Wu) and a few of their colleagues at the strip club Moves (a fictional version of the NYC club Scores), she dominates the movie from the moment her character arrives, and the movie flags any time she’s off screen.

The film is loosely based on a true story, detailed by Jessica Pressler in a 2015 article in New York magazine, where multiple strippers at Scores concocted a scheme to rob some of their rich clients by drugging them and maxing out their credit cards, taking home a sort of commission for bringing in the clients that was well beyond what they’d ordinarily make through performing and private dances. The script tidies things up quite a bit, including making the women more sympathetic and glossing over the prostitution aspect of the scheme, but follows the original article’s story of the case that exposed them – a victim who wasn’t rich, and who had gone through some horrible personal times, but whom the girls scammed anyway, only to have him fight back and get the cops interested in the case.

The focus here is on these women, who feel demeaned and discarded by a society that values women for their physical appearance, and that only temporarily, more than it values them as people, and fought back against men they figured wouldn’t really miss the money and who were among the biggest offenders at denigrating the women in the first place. Wu’s portrayal of the woman to whom Pressler spoke is actually much softer than the way in which that woman comes across in the original article, but her character isn’t all that deep or interesting – it’s the Vega character that gets the depth and complexity, a woman of great generosity in emotion and material goods with her friends but who has a callous, even frigid side when it comes to the men who misuse her.

The script also makes sure to let the audience know that these women become a surrogate family for each other – Destiny, Vega, two women who dance with them (played by Keke Palmer and Lili Reinhart), the club’s ‘den mother’ (Mercedes Ruehl) – filling the emotional void where their biological families, who have either discarded them or died or otherwise vanished, would have been. It’s obvious, and a little manipulative, but it also was largely effective because of Lopez’s performance, with boosts from Ruehl and a brief turn from Wai Ching Ho as Destiny’s grandmother at the over-the-top but still moving Christmas party. (Cardi B and Lizzo also appear as strippers at Moves, and both are incredibly entertaining in their limited time on screen but aren’t on enough.)

The movie frames the story as Destiny telling the story of the scam to a fictionalized version of Pressler (played in sterile fashion by Julia Stiles) after they’ve been caught and have served their sentences, which works a little to give Wu more chance to show some range but flops when screenwriter and director Lorene Scafaria seems unable to figure out how to wrap things up. The conflict between Ramona and Destiny often feels contrived, never more so at the end – perhaps because the New York article stops before the real-life Destiny (named Rosie) had her day in court, and because the real story is a lot messier. The idea Scafaria conceived is sweet enough to rot your teeth, and in the end Hustlers can’t get above the level of high entertainment because the script works overtime to make these women more sympathetic.

Lopez didn’t get her Oscar nod, but I couldn’t tell you if she deserved one over Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell), Scarlett Johanssen (Jojo Rabbit), or Margot Robbie (Bombshell), not yet at least. I wouldn’t put Lopez over the two nominees whose films I did see, Florence Pugh (Little Women) and Laura Dern (nominated for Marriage Story, but just as good in Little Women). I will say Lopez’s performance was worthy of a nomination; perhaps she was just crowded out in a strong year. I don’t think any of the other omissions, such as Scafaria for directing, were actually snubs; Hustlers is good but only Lopez really rises above the material.

Little Women.

Greta Gerwig’s debut as a writer and director, Lady Bird, was a largely autobiographical story of her own teenage years in Sacramento, with Saoirse Ronan in the lead role as Gerwig’s fictional stand-in. Ronan repeats the performance in a way as Jo March in Gerwig’s generally wonderful adaptation of Louisa May Alcott’s beloved novel Little Women, helping with the framing device Gerwig uses to tell the story in a nonlinear way… although Ronan here is completely upstaged by one of her own (fictional) sisters.

Little Women was itself an autobiographical novel of Alcott’s own upbringing in Massachusetts, telling the story of the March sisters, Meg, Jo, Amy, and Beth, who live with their mother Marmie and housekeeper Hannah while their father is away serving as an army chaplain during the civil war. The book, published here in two parts (and, in something I just learned, still sometimes seen abroad as Little Women and Good Wives), covers a period of about four years that sees the girls through courtships and tragedy, finally ending with three of the girls marrying and – there’s no way you don’t know this – one of the four dying of complications from scarlet fever. It was an immediate commercial success, spawning two further sequels (which I’ve never read), and remains a favorite for young readers today, in part because it’s one of the only novels of its century that truly focuses on its women, both as unique, well-developed characters themselves, and as women in a highly restrictive, patriarchal society.

The framing device Gerwig uses wears out its welcome a little quickly, especially given some of the abrupt transitions between past and present. She splits the time period across the seven years between Beth’s illness and her death, using different lighting and, eventually, a different haircut for one character as ways to distinguish between the periods, but some of the scenes don’t have enough time to develop fully because the next cut yanks you out of that moment and into a different one entirely. The shot of Jo grieving at her sister’s grave ends way too quickly and transitions to a scene of relative mirth that I think robbed the former of some of its power. There’s probably a good way to tell this story in a nonlinear way, still using the motif of Jo writing her great novel about her family as the framing device, that doesn’t make some of the intervening scenes so terse.

Beyond that, however, this film is just great, anchored by so many wonderful performances that it’s hard to identify just who is carrying what. Ronan is very good as Jo, although of course she is far prettier than Jo is ever described on Alcott’s pages, and particularly excels in any scene where she gets to crank up her emotions in any direction – and in her scenes with Laurie, played rakishly by Timothée Chalamet, who might as well have been born to play this young bachelor on the road to roué. But Florence Pugh is the biggest star here as Amy, a character who gets more emotional growth in the movie than she does in the book, going much farther from snotty younger sister to a young woman aware of how little the world might value her, fighting for any agency she can find. Pugh isn’t the lead, but I think she’s more important to this movie than anyone else.

Laura Dern might win Best Supporting Actress for her turn in Marriage Story, but I liked her performance here as Marmie even more – she’s the original supermom, showing the patience of a saint, and delivering one of the best and most memorable lines in the movie when Jo asks why she’s never angry. Bob Odenkirk is only in the film briefly as Mr. March, but he’s wonderful and is fast becoming one of my favorite character actors, even when the role requires little or no humor at all. Chris Cooper is delightful as Laurie’s grandfather; Meryl Streep does quite a lot with Aunt March, even though the character has maybe one and a half notes to her. Even Tracy Letts has a minor role as Jo’s publisher, and he’s the perfect amount of grump for the job.

And then there are the other two sisters, Meg, played by Emma Watson, and Beth, played by Eliza Scanlen. Watson just seems miscast here, speaking with a sort of affected precision that doesn’t line up with Meg, who truly wants the life of domesticity for which she’s destined. Scanlen, though, is just plain weird as Beth, who is also written strangely – made more infantile on the screen than she is on the page, which becomes particularly offputting when Beth is 13 and 14 in the earlier time period and she’s portrayed by an actress who is 21. Meg’s character isn’t that critical to the film, but Beth’s is, and the portrayal here is a bit jarring.

The ending Gerwig cooks up is rather sublime, and a welcome departure from authenticity. Jo is even more Alcott here than she ever could be in the novel, and Gerwig slips in some details from Alcott’s life to spice things up a bit, making her a shrewd negotiator and getting us to the big finish with a metafictional flourish for the ages. It’s not faithful to the source material, but given how problematic Jo’s literary marriage – which Alcott apparently wrote under duress from her publishers – is for the novel and her character, this is a substantial improvement.

We’ll find out the Oscar nominations the same morning I post this, but I’m guessing we’ll get Best Picture, Best Actress (Ronan), Best Supporting Actress (Pugh), Best Costume Design, and Best Adapted Screenplay, with maybe even money on Gerwig getting a Best Director nod. We’ll see if the backlash against the Golden Globes’ all-male director slate helps Gerwig at all; (I’m assuming three slots are locks, for Scorsese, Tarantino, and Mendes, with Boon Jong Ho a good shot at the fourth.) It’s not Best Picture, but it’ll certainly end up in my top 10 once I’ve finished the various candidates from 2019; as long as Pugh gets a nomination, though, I’ll call that a win for the film.

Klawchat 1/9/20.

Starting at 1 pm ET. I have two new pieces up at the Athletic this week: my introductory post and today’s column on some of what I look for when I evaluate players.

Keith Law: I dreamt that I was dreaming, I was wired to a clock. Klawchat.

Shaun: Does Clint Frazier bring back more in trade than a low level arm or nearer term reliever?
Keith Law: I think his trade value has largely evaporated over the last two years.

Ben: If you’re the Twins, would you part with any of Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Larnach for a #2-3 starter? I am assuming no #1s are available unless it’s a ridiculous package. Given their playoff annihilation I wonder whether a mid rotation guy will push the team to the next level.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t trade Kirilloff; I probably wouldn’t deal Lewis even with his swing issues. The second two I would deal for a mid-rotation guy without hesitation, although I agree that’s not really their need right now.

Aaron C.: Who does Klaw give the A’s 2B job to? Barreto, Mateo, Neuse or Pinder? These are all depressing choices.
Keith Law: Yes, yes they are.

PhillyJake: Has Ben Cherington been abducted by aliens? Seems overly quiet on the North shore of the Allegheny.
Keith Law: What should he have done? I’m really not clear on what moves he should have made already, with a bunch of decent free agents still on the market.

Aaron C.: Your favorite (restaurant) meal of 2019 was…?
Keith Law: 1. The Love, Philadelphia 2. Friday Saturday Sunday, Philadelphia 3. Juniper & Ivy, San Diego 4. The Purple Pig, Chicago 5. Brewery Bhavana, Raleigh

Deke: Noticed on Twitter you asked to be omitted from someone’s “best of baseball Twitter” bracket poll. Why didn’t you want to participate?
Keith Law: Why would I lend my name to that exercise? I don’t get anything from it, and the ‘bracket’ was almost entirely white men.

Alex: As a Braves fan, I am mostly feeling bloodyminded and hoping that MLB’s penalties against the Astros are at least as harsh as they were against the Braves. But the rational part of my brain accepts the propriety of fitting punishment to crime. So… in your view, normatively, what *should* be the punishment levied against the Astros and Red Sox?
Keith Law: I think what the Astros and Red Sox are accused of doing is worse than what the Braves did in the international market, but I also strongly believe MLB doesn’t see it that way for a variety of reasons, not least of which is that the Braves committed the greater baseball sin of trying to pay players more money.

xxx(yyy): any (brief?) thoughts on the upcoming season of Top Chef? will you be bringing back your episode reviews?
Keith Law: I have not watched the show in three years and have said several times I’m not doing reviews any more. They take up way too much time.

Arnold: Just wanted to say congrats on joining The Athletic. That’s been my favorite place to read about sports for the past year. I look forward to seeing your stuff there. My question…is there any Giants prospect without any major league time yet, who may have an impact on the team this year, perhaps later in the year?
Keith Law: It wouldn’t shock me to see Bart in the majors by August, if he’s healthy. That’s it, though.

Ray : What can one expect from Nick Solak in 2020? Will he play everyday in the Rangers lineup?
Keith Law: Think he’s an extra guy, not a regular. At the moment I don’t see playing time for him anyway.

Trey: Keith – Congrats on joining The Athletic! (I am a happy subscriber:) Cubs Q: given their current ‘near ready’ minor league talent (not much), current roster, and owner induced payroll cap, any chance the cubs can regain elite top 5 mlb status this year or next? Other than Ricketts giving Theo another $50M-75M to spend each of the next two offseasons, what can he do?
Keith Law: Money is the only real way out for the Cubs right now, who are good-but-maybe-not-good-enough at the major-league level and have a bottom-tier farm system without much trade capital.

TomBruno23: Did the Ricketts spend all of their money on the GOP and Wrigley to the point where we are to believe all they can do is all players on NRI deals?
Keith Law: That’s what they’re selling. Your choice whether to buy it.

Joe: Is there a provision for raising the luxury tax threshold? It seems that, with salaries for superstars (deservedly) rising, the threshold should increase to reflect this.
Keith Law: Yes, it went up $2 million for 2020, and goes up $2 million more for 2021.

Krontz: Can Nolan Jones stay at 3b for most of his MLB career? Or a corner OF/1b move likely?
Keith Law: I see a nonzero chance he stays at third.

Jason: You identified changeups, splitters, and cutters as out-pitches for opposite-side hitters. My understanding of the pitch movements is that changeups fall off toward the arm side, splitters tend to break straight down, and cutters break toward the glove side (though I was never a pitcher and stopped playing in junior high, so I recognize I could be off). Given the disparate natures of those pitches, why are they all so effective in getting out opposite-side hitters?
Keith Law: Nothing to do with movement; everything to do with how the pitches appear out of the pitcher’s hand, and whether they resemble fastballs or breaking balls.

barbeach: KLAW: Happy New Year! Congrats on the move to The Athletic…it prompted me to subscribe. Do you see a path for Deivi Garcia to crack the NYY major league roster this year? Thanks as always.
Keith Law: Yes, I do. Cole is locked in for 30 starts, but Tanaka has long pitched with an elbow issue, Paxton gets hurt quite a bit, Severino missed all of 2019, Montgomery is just barely back from TJ. There will be starts available.

David: Congratulations on the new job Keith! Like you, I spend a lot of time working from home but struggle sometimes separating home life from work. I feel like I’m always doing both (fitting in trips to the grocery store in the middle of the work day; doing work in the evening and night.) How do you balance your time? Do you struggle with time management like I do?
Keith Law: Don’t worry so much about ‘time management’ and focus instead on what you need to accomplish each day. FWIW, I use non-work things to break up my work day, since it’s hard for me to just sit and write for hours upon hours without a respite.

Tariq: It appears that the A’s swung wildly and missed on consecutive top 10 picks in 17 and 18 in Austin Beck and Kyler Murray – do you think that it was a flawed approach from the start or do you understand their high risk/high reward in retrospect? Congrats on the new job!
Keith Law: Two different picks, two different processes. I still don’t think they blew it on Murray … nobody thought he’d become that good an NFL prospect at the time he was drafted. The criticism, if any, would be that they didn’t accurately assess his desire to play baseball.

Hank: Hey Keith! How do you view Tucker Davidson and Kyle Muller and will they contribute in 2020? Thanks!
Keith Law: Davidson’s a fifth starter, Muller more a mid-rotation guy, would guess neither contributes much in 2020 given who’s ahead of them.

Trey: Hi Keith – Any plans on updating your top 100 books this year? And, any spy novel recommendations (a more modern Le Carre perhaps)?
Keith Law: That list requires a lot of work, and right now I don’t have a lot of free time.

Alex: Do you think the 3b from Vanderbilt (Lewis) can play SS at the big league level?
Keith Law: If you mean Austin Martin, I have only seen him play an excellent 3b, but never seen him at SS. He’ll play short this spring, and we’ll get our answer.

Roger: You appear to have been right all along about Austin Riley, but my question is if you were Atlanta would you trade him before his value completely tanks?
Keith Law: He played nearly a whole summer in the majors and didn’t hit at all, with pitch data that really doesn’t help his cause. His value is already at a local minimum.

Jim: First off, welcome again to The Athletic! What do you see as what’s going on with Donaldson? Based on what some sources (e.g., MLBTraderumors) are saying, it looks to me like it’s not so much waiting out a bidding war as the market falling apart because nobody wants to meet his demands. Thanks!
Keith Law: No idea, sorry. That is not an area I cover, and that hasn’t changed with the job. We have plenty of other writers who’ll wade in the rumor mire.

Christopher: You work for the Athletic now????
Keith Law: Big, if true.

BigDaddeh: If the Cubs put Yu Darvish’s remaining contract on irrevocable waivers, would someone take it? Is it not even underwater anymore given the new market climate?
Keith Law: Teams would fight to take it.

TomBruno23: Latest episode of The Inquiry, “Why was Qasem Soleimani killed?”, is a clear, concise and informative listen on the current situation.
Keith Law: Of course it is – The Inquiry (from the BBC) is consistently smart despite being so concise.

David (Denver): The Rockies are going to sell way too low on Arenado, aren’t they? I’m enthused for yet another underwhelming return of young pitching that never develops.
Keith Law: I don’t understand jumping to extend him and THEN trying to trade him. It looks indecisive.

tempo: What are your thoughts on two of my favorite metal bands – Slayer and System of a Down?
Keith Law: I enjoy peak Slayer, basically RIB through Seasons. By the late ’90s they’d really stopped producing anything novel, unfortunately, but that’s true for all the ’80s thrash icons.

ryan: keith, its awesome your with the athletic now. what made you switch jobs?
Keith Law: I have already written quite a bit about that in my newsletter.

Alan: If the Sox move Mookie to LAD and Lux is off the table what is a good return package in your opinion?
Keith Law: If I’m the Red Sox I am insisting on May and one of the catchers in the deal, at a bare minimum. It’s Mookie Fucking Betts, people.

Dee Arby: If Moniak wasn’t taken #1, how far do you think he would have slid down the draft board?
Keith Law: He was going in the top 5-6 picks anyway … he was pretty famous, hit well enough at showcases, and scouts liked the kid’s makeup a lot (too much).

Anthony: Thoughts on the White Sox offseason? Been incredibly busy, but does it translate into anything in 2020 and beyond?
Keith Law: Yes, I think it does.
Keith Law: I also don’t think they’re done.

Kyle B: Do you think there’s going to be a work stoppage when this CBA expires?
Keith Law: I will know a lot more about that once I get into this job some more and start my reporting on the labor talks.

Shlomo Zinger: Thoughts on Mike King?
Keith Law: Reliever.

Tinker: What do you think about Chris Shaw and his future? His career path / numbers remind me of Max Muncy!
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s more than an emergency callup.

John: Hi Keith. Loved Smart Baseball. Can’t wait for your next book. Do you see Loaisiga or any of their other young arms being viable bullpen replacements for Betances or will the Yanks need to sign/trade for another power arm in the pen? Thanks.
Keith Law: Given all of Loaisiga’s arm problems, can he work back to back days like most relievers do? I don’t know the answer but I think it’d be an issue for him.

Salty: Not sure if you saw the story of Lassiter vs NY Yankees. Was wondering if you’ve ever seen a grievance taken that far, and if it reached dismissal status only because he was representing himself.
Keith Law: It wasn’t a grievance, but a lawsuit, and to be honest it sounds like Lassiter isn’t well and might need real help. The media coverage I’ve seen seems to be making fun of him (it’s easy, he’s claiming this massive conspiracy against him).

NYYMatt99: Do you agree with Manfred cutting minor league teams? He seems to be doing everything possible to stop baseball from growing
Keith Law: That’s not a yes/no question. I wrote about it October for ESPN and will certainly revisit the topic for the Athletic because it’s a lot more complicated than “cutting minor league teams.”

Chris: Think the Mets deal Dom Smith or he remains a bench bat this season?
Keith Law: I have to think they trade him … he’s more valuable in trade than as a 300 AB (if that) bench player.

Appa Yip Yip: How do you think the Jays starting pitching looks over the next couple of years? They have Ryu, hopefully Pearson, then an amorphous mass of dudes at AAA lead by probably Anthony Kay. How do you see it shaking out?
Keith Law: Lot of guys who could be average or better if healthy, but who have dicey health outlooks, including Ryu. Murphy might be #2 behind Pearson if we knew he’d stay healthy.

Mike: Do you get the same royalty when Amazon drops the price of your bookin the Kindle store?
Keith Law: No, it’s a percentage of the purchase price.

John G: Clarke Schmidt or Michael King as Yankees’ long-term no. 4 or 5?
Keith Law: Schmidt might be a starter; King is not.

jayB: Thoughts on the new I lnfield Outs stats? Other than Baez was still robbed in GG voting
Keith Law: Mike Petriello pointed out that it’s useful but incomplete, and you can see that in some of the leaders.
Keith Law: A lot of batted ball types aren’t included.

Kuipers HR: Obviously, I’d rather Indians keep Lindor. But if they’re not going to put even half the $ they’ve saved into team, trading him is next less-worse option. No?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Bobby Northside: When will we see SP throw 250+ innings again? How can we make it happen?
Keith Law: Never. Even a pitcher who might be capable of doing so will not be allowed to do so because you’re better off with relievers facing hitters for the first time than starters facing hitters for the 3rd/4th time.

Moe Mentum: There’s a 3rd Siani brother on the horizon. Is he on your radar yet, or is it too early still?
Keith Law: He’s next year.

Kevin W.: Does our country (and democracy) ever recover from the last 4 years?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Ben: Just finished Confederacy of Dunces and loved it. The whole time I was reading it, I couldn’t help but picture Ignatius as Buster Bluth. Did you have anyone in mind for his character as you read it?
Keith Law: I read it ~20 years ago, so I don’t remember thinking he was anything but Ignatius himself.

Kevin W.: What happened to Aubrey huff?
Keith Law: Nothing. This is who he’s always been.

John G: Why aren’t the Rockies talking trades for Jon Gray, not just Arenado? Dude seems prime for a restart somewhere to shine
Keith Law: I agree – he’s done about as well as you could have hoped with the Rockies but I could see him going somewhere else and exploding like Cole did with Houston.

Mike D: Why would Cleveland want to shop Lindor and Clevinger instead of building around them? Does not seem to make sense to me.
Keith Law: Then they’d have to spend money.

Kevin W.: Will you continue free agent write-ups at the athletic?
Keith Law: Yes, depending on how significant the player and contract are.

Mart Yanh: Law! Congrats on the new job! Do u think Mookie Betts *wants* to remain in Boston long term?
Keith Law: He wants to go to free agency to maximize his value. That’s his right as a player.

Andy: Does the proposed shortening of the draft help college baseball (more kids coming and staying longer) or make it worse (top prospects more likely to go the minors.) I know it’ll definitely be a whole lot worse for the college kids with less senior signs.
Keith Law: The better senior signs will still get signed; the worst senior signs will no longer have automatic paths into pro ball, but their odds of seeing the majors were minuscule. They could go play indy ball or in this new “Dream League” if that proposal came to fruition, and if they do well enough, they’d get opportunities in pro ball. Senior signs only typically get $1000 as a bonus, and then the pathetic first-year minor league salary, so it’s not as if MLB is getting rid of lucrative jobs here.

Eric: Just a statement for the MAGA people: If you support the troops, you should be vehemently against war, especially ones based off ego and narcissism.
Keith Law: The best way to support the troops is to bring them all home.

Mike D: Are you heading to ST this year? Florida or Arizona?
Keith Law: I go to both every year.

Moshe Rabeinu: How far away is Florial?
Keith Law: His pitch recognition hasn’t gotten better in the last year-plus, and he’s been hurt, so right now I don’t see what his role is in the majors.

Blangadanger: Had a chance to play Parks over the holidays. An excellent, quick and immersive game with gorgeous art of US National Parks. Have you had a chance to play?
Keith Law: I haven’t, but it was on my list of 2019 games I wanted to try but never got to play. I’ve heard great things.

Dirk Gently: Let’s say MLB suspends Jeff Luhnow for a year — how do they keep Luhnow from simply working remotely, directing his assistants on what to do, etc.? Are they going to be able to spot check cell phones/emails? And would it be that hard for Luhnow to do is job remotely that way?
Keith Law: Yes, they would be able to check or ask for cell phone records, emails, etc.

Evan: Are your prospect packages going to follow a similar format as they did in ESPN, or will you change it up?
Keith Law: Editorial decision. The content will be very similar.

Adam: hey Keith, subscribed to your newsletter but after your most recent e-mail went out. Is there any way to read the post online?
Keith Law: On the signup page there’s a “letter archive” link.

Jason: Will Monte Harrison amount to anything?
Keith Law: The odds are very much against him … the approach is nowhere near good enough, despite the tools.

Nick: What do you make of JD Davis season last year? His defensive struggles aside, do you think he continues to make an ascension to potential star?
Keith Law: No, I think that was his peak.

Big Fan: Hi Keith, congrats on the move! Do you have any insight into where or when Josh Donaldson will sign?
Keith Law: No, that is not and has never been something I cover.

Nick: Dom Smith for Tarik Skubal. Who says no?
Keith Law: Pretty sure the Tigers would say no.
Keith Law: Skubal might be their best pitching prospect at this moment.

Sean: Bart, Ramos and Hjelle are being sold to us Giants fans as the first wave of the future. Should I get excited or pump the brakes a bit?
Keith Law: Their system is improved, but not yet good. They’re a draft or two away from that, and they didn’t add any prospects at the deadline last year, I assume because the team had a bit of a mirage run of contention.

Grant: Which books coming out in 2020 are you most excited to read?
Keith Law: I don’t really track those unless it’s an author I especially like (Jasper Fforde has one coming).

PA Prospects: What high schoolers will you be watching locally this spring?
Keith Law: Near me, probably nobody. Austin Hendrick is a prospect but on the other side of the state from me.

Andy: Bring them home, and then fund the programs to help them with their physical and mental well being.
Keith Law: We both know that’ll never happen. You’re asking politicians to spend money that doesn’t produce results they can show off for the cameras.
Keith Law: Evidence-based treatments for PTSD etc. exist, but they’re tough sells to constituents.

Jesse B: Do you think Honeywell can still throw the screwball? Do you think he can still be a starter?
Keith Law: After two missed years, he’s probably going to end up in relief.

BenL: Congrats on the new gig, Klaw! Just a housekeeping question: Klawchats to continue here, be moved to the Athletic’s site as this new venture takes shape, combination of both? Thanks, as always
Keith Law: Klawchats are here and will stay here for the foreseeable future.

Matt W: I agree the Mets should free Dom Smith but with their depth as thin as it is, can they really afford to part with more of it? Have you seen their list of ST invites?? Egads.
Keith Law: It’s OK, they have Tebow.

John: How much of the Phillies issues in the draft do you think are down to bad draft evaluation (ie, you didn’t love the picks at the start), poor player development after they drafted the guys, or just bad luck? The poor drafts have obviously really hindered their teardown/rebuild
Keith Law: They’ve chosen poorly more than anything else.

Erik: Awkwafina’s gonna lose Best Actress to another cosplayer. Will the Academy ever change?
Keith Law: That’s always the safe bet, right? Who played a historical figure, or played a character with a disability, or played a character who was LGBT+? I only get worked up about the Oscars because they mean money: if your film wins something, more people will go see it, and more money for good films should mean more money for good films in the future.

Dave: Trump: hawk or dove? Displays both at times
Keith Law: LOL, don’t fall for it, Dave.

Bradley: Thoughts on the Luis Robert deal? Seems to be a good deal for the player’s long term financial secure and nice to not see blatant service time manipulation from a team. Win win?
Keith Law: Win win, mostly. He has no leverage in this situation and the team has it all, but he did fairly well for a player with 0 MLB games, and I’m glad to see the White Sox pushing this model of paying prospects early.

PD: Have you addressed how your coverage with interact with Sickels?
Keith Law: It doesn’t. My coverage is independent of anything else at the Athletic. I’ll do more or less the same stuff I did for ESPN+, just at a new site, and over time adding some additional types of content like labor coverage.

dan: Tony Gonsolin Future starter or Reliever?
Keith Law: Yes, he will be one of those things.

jeff: does skubal come up before mize?
Keith Law: Mize finished 2019 hurt, and didn’t look right just before he got hurt, so right now Skubal is closer to his debut despite Mize’s pedigree and superior pitch mix.

Ron: Twins need a first baseman. Wouldn’t trying to work a trade with the Mets for Dom Smith make sense? Better than trying to sign Donaldson? What would it take?
Keith Law: What do they have that the Mets would value for 2020? The Mets are trying to win now, but so are the Twins. Do the Twins have surplus somewhere I’m not thinking of? Maybe if a third team is involved and the Twins send a prospect to team 3 and get Smith, so team 3 sends the Mets whatever it is they need (pitching?).

Brian: Let’s be honest, the guy that claimed he would cancel the subscription to The Athletic that he doesn’t currently have because of your hiring will be tough to top.
Keith Law: That was quite special.

Kevin: Do you think Dalbec will be the Red Sox opening day 1B in 2020?
Keith Law: I do not.

jeff: Gore over 125 IP in 2020? rookie of the year?
Keith Law: Unlikely, and almost certainly not.

Todd: Are Mets fans over estimating Steve Cohen as an owner? Just because someone has ample means doesnt necessarily mean they’re a great baseball owner
Keith Law: I think Mets fans are latching on to the fact that he is Not a Wilpon.

Turner : If DL Hall were to improve his control this year, would he have #2 starter potential?
Keith Law: He has #2 starter potential already, if he improves both his command and his control.

Sam: Will you be active at all in the comments section of your articles?
Keith Law: No, again, no time for that. I’d rather chat here and leave it at that.

Eric: How worried would you be about giving a 4 year deal to 34 year old Donaldson? Better than trading prospects for Bryant?
Keith Law: Someone asked earlier at what point Donaldson should just take the best deal … if he has viable four-year offers on the table, he should take one. Given his age and some of his injury history, that feels like more than he should have reasonably expected from the market.
Keith Law: I’d rather trade something for Bryant, but of course we don’t know what that ‘something’ is.

Danial: Looking forward to more klawtent; does your new job come with new leeway or restrictions and how can we expect that to be reflected in your work?
Keith Law: I don’t know how to answer that other than to say keep reading. I don’t think I have more leeway in prospect coverage. ESPN never restricted me there.

Ben: Theoretical Question: Your world series window is the next 1-2 years. If you have a prospect who is guaranteed to be a lights-out reliever right now and has the potential to be a top-end starter but isn’t ready yet, do you use them in the bullpen now before your window closes, or screw the window and think about the best use of the asset?
Keith Law: David Price 2008. I use the guy in relief right now, judiciously (like, don’t burn him out by using him three days in a row).

Todd: Keith, why do republicans just deny climate change? Is it strictly business related denial?
Keith Law: The Party itself? Yes. Climate change mitigation is bad for many industries, including coal, oil/gas, mining, and much manufacturing, so their opposition to it is a financial matter – they do not face future costs of a warmed and damaged planet.

Mark R: Any decent Disney eats this year?
Keith Law: We ate at the Holiday Festival kiosks more than anything else.
Keith Law: That’s probably it for Disneyworld trips for me for a while, since I no longer have the magic pass.

Oliver: It’s kind of weird that the Padres traded for Taylor Trammell and Trent Grisham then blocked each of them in LF for the next two years with Tommy Pham. With Myers stuck (sigh) in RF because Hosmer is entrenched at 1B (heavy sigh), can either play good enough CF defense to make up for the shortcomings of Myers and Pham?
Keith Law: Myers ends up on the bench or released. He’s not blocking anybody.

Jason S: In 2025, is Kelenic, Rodriguez and Marte the best OF in baseball?
Keith Law: The easy answer is ‘no,’ since 1) that’s five years away and 2) we have no idea if all three will stay healthy and develop up to their potential.

Rico: What are your expectations for Gavin Lux this year and long-term?
Keith Law: I think he’s an All-Star in the long term, an above-average regular right now, and the best argument for the Dodgers not trading for Lindor this winter.

Rico: Benintendi struggled last year after a breakout 2018. Any reason for the increasing K% and lack of power? What do you expect going forward?
Keith Law: I don’t know what’s gone wrong with him; in a year when everyone seemed to hit the ball harder and hit for more power, he hit for less. It’s easy to say it’s in his swing – there is some of that – but his approach, esp vs LHP, has gone backwards too.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you all for the kind words on my move to the Athletic, and for continuing to show up here for Klawchats. I’ll keep these going on Thursdays until we get to spring training and travel gets in the way. In the meantime, watch this space or my email newsletter for further announcements on upcoming content!

The Farewell.

Awkwafina got her start as a Youtube comedic rapper, and didn’t even earn her first live acting credit in anything but a short film until 2016’s Neighbors 2, so her rise from that to a Golden Globe for Best Actress – which she won this weekend for her outstanding lead performance in The Farewell – is one of the more incredible and heartening stories out of the movie world in some time. (Was Cate Blanchett all teary with joy when Awkwafina won? I kind of think she was.) I haven’t seen all of the nominated actresses’ films in that category, but I can say Awkwafina gave a performance worthy of awards, and without her and the way her coarse, rational character contrasts with the rest of her slightly loopy family, The Farewell wouldn’t be half the film it is.

Awkwafina plays Billi, a 30ish, struggling Chinese-American writer who has just learned she didn’t get a fellowship she was hopeful she’d land, when she finds out that her grandmother in China, to whom she was once quite close, is dying of lung cancer. The catch is that the family, adhering to a cultural tradition, isn’t telling the grandmother that she’s dying, so she can continue to live her life as if everything was normal until it reaches a point where the truth becomes inevitable (if it ever does). Billi isn’t on board with the plan, since it involves lying to a beloved family member, so her parents tell her not to come with them to China for what is presumably the last visit they’ll have with Nana. Of course, she defies them and flies there on her own, and hilarity ensues in the face of a terminal diagnosis, from the internecine squabbles about telling her, Nana’s desire to find Billi a husband, culture clashes with other cousins who remained in China, and, oh by the way, the sham wedding of Billi’s first cousin to a woman h met in Japan (who speaks no Chinese of any dialect) that is the excuse for everyone coming to visit Nana at once.

Part of the beauty of the comedy of The Farewell is that the premise is rather simple: They’re not telling Nana she’s dying and they’re all there for a fake wedding. Everything else flows naturally from that setup; you just had to get the characters in one place for an obnoxiously passive-aggressive argument about whether the United States or China has the superior culture or is the better place to send your child for college to break out. Billi is often in the middle of the comedy, but not necessarily its prime mover; sometimes she’s Bob Newhart, the ‘normal’ one surrounded by crazy people, providing the voice of reason. 

The scenes with Billi and Nana are more tender, as if maybe Billi can forget for a moment that her grandmother is dying, than the family scenes, where she and her parents keep switching to English to talk about the propriety of the ongoing lie, which also gives the film some needed contrast. I expected more of a one-note story, yet The Farewell is anything but, especially avoiding the trap of simply making Billi the heroine whose position is right and thus for whom you’ll root in every argument. (You will sometimes, though.) Rather than burdening the script with major subplots, writer-director Lulu Wang, who based the story on her own experience with her family and her own grandmother, adds small flourishes to flesh out the main story. The best of these lets Nana’s sister tell her own story, explaining her role in the family, which gets exactly the screen time it needs without becoming a needless, ongoing plot point.

Awkwafina’s win might be the boost she needs to get an Academy Award nomination for Best Actress this year, which would be great news as I don’t think I’d put more than one performance over hers of what I’ve seen (Scarlett Johanssen in Marriage Story, although she has less to do overall). It seems like it would be an upset for The Farewell to get a Best Picture nod, but I’ll be pulling for it – and GoldDerby.com‘s Oscar odds page has this fifth in Best Screenplay and even has Zhao Shuzhen, who plays Nana, ranked 6th among candidates for the Best Supporting Actress award. (She’s very good.) It’s a good movie, maybe a little insubstantial to say it’s a great movie, but a movie I’ll root for next month, and one I’ll encourage a lot of people to see because almost anyone could watch this movie. It’s a very human story, simply told, without distractions or things to deter anyone from enjoying it.

The Irishman.

I had to get sick to watch The Irishman

At three and a half hours, it’s the longest movie I’ve ever watched in a single sitting at home or in a theater; I’ve watched longer films, including Lawrence of Arabia, but over multiple days, because my attention span’s normal limit is around two hours and it takes a lot to overcome that. This Friday, though, I was knocked out by a virus and had a fever high enough that I wasn’t leaving the couch, so we watched Martin Scorsese’s latest entry in his opus of films around organized crime, about a serial liar and trivial mob figure who, near the end of his life, ‘confessed’ to numerous murders, including that of Jimmy Hoffa.

Taken from a dubious non-fiction book called I Heard You Paint Houses (which appears on-screen in an alternate title card), The Irishman follows the career of Frank Sheeran as he goes from a truck driver who delivers meat between Philadelphia and DC to consigliere to a local don, Russell Bufalino, and later to Hoffa himself. It’s a sprawling story with an epic scope but a focus on minute interactions, giving Scorsese’s three leads a chance to do what we all presumably came to see them do – and to see them as younger doppelgängers of themselves, thanks to digital de-aging technology, so Scorsese can use the same actors across a thirty- to forty-year span.

(By the way, Slate breaks down how Sheeran likely confessed to a slew of murders and crimes he never committed. The story is mostly fiction, with lots of real people in it.)

Frank is played by Robert De Niro, who probably looks the least like himself when he’s de-aged but whose voice and accent are unmistakable. (Although the characters are supposed to be from Philadelphia and Detroit, the accents sound a lot more like Brooklyn Italian-American to me.) Hoffa is portrayed by Al Pacino, also given away by his voice even when he’s also been de-aged. Both deliver solid performances, De Niro’s a bit more workmanlike yet a character a bit independent of the movie around him, Pacino infusing the bombastic Hoffa with the kind of bombast Pacino is known for giving his characters.

But this movie is dominated by a scene-stealing performance from Joe Pesci as Russ; I can’t say I ever forgot it was Joe Pesci, because how could you ever forget that, but of the three actors he is by far the most convincing and the most fully in character. Known for playing hair-trigger characters with on-screen histrionics, Pesci here is understated by comparison, measured, sounding well-reasoned even he’s asking Frank to take someone out (and I don’t mean for drinks). He seems the least like someone playing an archetype in a film about mobsters, even though that – and My Cousin Vinny – is what he’s best known for doing. It helps that the de-aging was least noticeable on him out of the big three. For him to come out of retirement – he’d last appeared in a live-action role nine years ago – and deliver this performance is remarkable, and I assume assures him an Oscar nomination.

The film indulges in those archetypes, both in characters and in plot points, although by the end it’s clear that Scorsese, at least, is making a much larger point about the pointlessness of such violence, and how it threatens to dehumanize the perpetrators in the long run. The various executions are gory but ultimately mundane for their frequency, and the ease with which Frank can deliver either a beating or a bullet is never explained even in the extended introduction to his character (which does introduce one of the many wonderful minor performances in the film, this one from Ray Romano). At three-plus hours, the repetitive nature of this cycle becomes clearer, and while the violence is stylized, it’s not glamorized – it’s ugly, and futile, and by the film’s conclusion, everyone involved is either dead or left with nothing.

Frank himself has been shut out by one of his daughters, played almost wordlessly by Anna Paquin in over 25 years in the movie’s present tense, and pleads with another daughter for her to help reconnect them, which she refuses to do. One of the most memorable, awful scenes in the film is when Frank goes to a funeral parlor and shops for caskets (the salesman is rapper Action Bronson, who literally doesn’t seem to know how to stand while Frank is talking to him); when the salesman asks who the casket is for, Frank reveals it’s for himself. No one else cares enough to do this for him. He will die unloved, and likely unlamented.

Paquin’s nearly silent role has come in for a lot of criticism, but the reason is so clear, and writing the character that way, as opposed to making her angry and voluble and demonstrative, is powerful in its own right and because it plays against stereotypes of women in films. The general lack of women characters of any substance in the film is a bigger problem, and not one about or limited to Paquin’s character; Frank leaves his first wife for his second and it barely merits a mention, while his wife and Russ’s are there on a road trip the four take from Philly to Detroit but they’re there for nothing more than comic relief and smoke breaks. And it’s not as if the film lacks room for female voices – there’s a fair amount of fat in this film, at least twenty minutes’ worth of overlong montages or scenes of old white men talking to each other too slowly. The entire sequence leading up to the murder of “Crazy” Joe Gallo, which eyewitnesses say Sheeran did not commit, and the murder itself could have been left out without hurting the film at all, since the murder doesn’t matter in the subsequent timeline of the movie.

The Irishman is going to earn a slew of Oscar nominations, obviously. It’ll get a nod for Best Picture. Scorcese will get one for Best Director. I think all three of my fellow paesani will get acting nominations. A movie of this length hardly exists without extensive editing, and while I have some quibbles with a few specific cuts, I think the sheer size of the job gets the editor(s) a nomination there as well. I won’t be surprised if it wins Best Picture, but little else, however, as the film is more than the sum of its parts, and if you like this film, you love this film. I’ll just personally root for Pesci to take a statue home as well.

Stick to baseball, 1/4/20.

Happy New Year! I skipped last week since it was the holidays and I was offline quite a bit, but in the last couple of weeks I had a bunch of year-end board game posts, including my top 10 games of 2019 for Paste, my best games of the year by category for Vulture, and the top 8 board game apps of 2019 for Ars Technica.

My free email newsletter will return on Monday, time and health (I’m sick yet again) permitting. My second book, The Inside Game, will be out on April 21st and is available for pre-order.

And now, the links…

Dark Money (book).

Jane Mayer’s Dark Money: The Hidden History of the Billionaires Behind the Rise of the Radical Right is the most horrifying book I read all year – but it’s not a horror novel, just a work of well-investigated, well-argued non-fiction that details how archconservative billionaires, usually mad over having to pay taxes, have spent hundreds of millions or more of their own money to buy control of our government. Their efforts helped catapult the retrograde right-wing of the Republican Party from the fringes to the party’s new core, gave them control of the legislative and executive branches, and have, for the last two years, allowed them to pack the federal judiciary with judges who agree with their reactionary views on taxation, environmental regulations, and women’s rights. If this book doesn’t horrify you, you must be one of them.

The main target of Dark Money is the Koch brothers, David (who just died this August) and Charles, who run the second-largest closely held company in the United States. Before David’s death, each was worth around $50 billion, each had longstanding individual efforts to avoid paying taxes, and their company had decades of violations of environmental regulations, including dumping benzene, a known human carcinogen that we absorb by breathing its vapors, into the air near their oil refinery in Corpus Christi. The Kochs’ response to these various federal actions against them has been to pump hundreds of millions of dollars into various front groups that donate to legislative and gubernatorial candidates who promise, in turn, to roll back environmental protections or to push tax cuts for the highest brackets; and to fund professorships at various universities where the positions will go to so-called “free-market advocates” and where the Koch brothers may have had say in hiring. Along with other anti-tax, anti-regulation billionaires, including the DeVos family, Wilbur Ross, John Olin, Art Pope, and more, the Kochs helped found the Cato Institute and the Heritage Foundation; spent hundreds of millions fighting climate reform; and helped fund massive gerrymanders in states from Ohio and Pennsylvania to North Carolina. They’ve packaged most of these policies, which help them directly or indirectly by helping the businesses they own, as issues of “freedom,” while tying some of them to issues that matter to social conservatives, so that they might convince enough voters to swing their way even when those policies (such as eliminating laws or regulations that fight pollution) would hurt those voters themselves.

Even if you agree with some of the positions that these billionaires are pushing, Mayer’s main thesis here is that our democracy has been bought by a tiny number of people, so that fewer than 20 of these billionaires are setting wide swaths of federal and state policies for a country of 300 million. It is improbable that this extreme minority, all of whom are white and quite old, nearly all of whom are male, and all of whom are in the top 1% of the top 1% of the top 1% of Americans by wealth, would all agree among themselves on policies that are also beneficial to the country as a whole … but even if, improbably, they did so, that’s not how our system of government is supposed to work, and not how most Americans think it works. But, as Mayer describes through her history of the Kochs and of the way money has metastasized throughout our political system, since Citizens United – a Supreme Court ruling that resulted from funding by the Koch brothers and their allies – this is exactly how our government works. Billionaires buying the policies they want is a feature, not a bug.

Mayer also goes into the Nazi roots of the Kochs’ fortune; it is unlikely that the brothers would have become this wealthy had their father not helped Adolf Hitler build a major oil refinery in Hamburg that let the Nazis refine high-octane fuel for their warplanes. Fred Koch, Charles’ and David’s father, also helped Joseph Stalin develop the Soviets’ then-moribund oil industry, helping ensure the dictator’s grip on power and setting the stage for the Cold War after the second World War. It’s estimated they spent nearly $900 million in the 2016 election to try to elect their favored, hard-right Republicans to state legislatures across the country and ensure control of both houses of Congress. Is that possible if Fred Koch doesn’t take Hitler’s money?

There isn’t a simple solution to the problems Mayer details in Dark Money, and she doesn’t pretend there are, instead pointing out every policy change and judicial decision that created this particular monster. Lax IRS regulations have allowed billionaires to funnel money into “non-profits” that don’t have to disclose their donors but manage to skirt rules against such groups funding candidates. Citizens United gave corporations the free speech rights previously reserved for individuals. A lack of federal rules on soft money, donated to groups (like Super PACs) but not directly to candidates, has further enabled the wholesale purchasing of legislators; corporations can’t contribute directly to candidates, but they can fund Super PACs, which can then campaign for or against candidates as long as they aren’t coordinating with the candidates they support. None of this will change soon; it certainly won’t change as long as this version of the Koch-funded Republican Party retains control of the Senate, the White House, and much of the federal judiciary. A huge part of the power of Dark Money is that Mayer channels her obvious indignation into providing more details on the shady (yet legal!) behavior of these billionaires, rather than just delivering a screed on the subject, even though the desire to deliver a screed would be easy to understand.

I don’t think boycotts accomplish a whole lot – they require such enormous coordination, and the presence of viable alternatives – but I am at least trying to avoid spending my money with companies owned by these reactionary billionaires and other companies that support their efforts (such as by funding the American Legislative Exchange Council, the conservative lobbying group that goes so far as to write bills for their member legislators to submit). I wouldn’t shop at Menard’s if I lived in the Midwest, not with its owner helping fund fights against unions and saying he “doesn’t believe in environmental regulations.” I won’t buy paper goods from Georgia Pacific, although I’m realistic – if I buy a new house, or do some renovations, I probably have no say over where any plywood or OSB comes from. And I don’t think I’m going to move the needle with any of these companies; I would just rather know my money isn’t going directly to help the subjugation of our democracy.

Next up: I’m reading a pair of Evelyn Waugh novels – first The Ordeal of Gilbert Pinfold, and then Black Mischief.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

Quentin Tarantino is one of the most frustrating filmmakers working today, a brilliant author of dialogue with a unique eye for scene and setting, prone to bombast, pretension, and general excess that nearly always ends up detracting from even his best movies. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (now on amazon & iTunes) is one of the best things he’s done, and it’s also way too long and frequently too clever by half, buoyed by a pair of tremendous lead performances and burdened by the lack of interesting women and a meandering plot.

Once is another alternate history, in a similar vein to Inglourious Basterds and even Django Unchained, although this time around Tarantino’s playing with facts is subtler until the film’s climax. He gives us two lead characters, TV actor Rick Dalton (Leonardo DiCaprio) and his stunt double/personal assistant Cliff Booth (Brad Pitt), and follows them from the end of Dalton’s star turn on a TV western Bounty Law through a dry spell that eventually leads him to work against type as the ‘heavy’ and to star in some spaghetti westerns, all in the late 1960s. Their paths intersect multiple times with Dalton’s neighbors, Sharon Tate (Margot Robbie) and Roman Polanski (Rafal Zawierucha, his first English-language film role), and with a group of hippies who just happen to be living on the Spahn Ranch under the spell of a charismatic cult leader named Charles Manson (Damon Herriman, reprising his role from Mindhunter and a damn good likeness). Cliff picks up a flirtatious hitchhiker (Margaret Qualley) who brings him back to the ranch, which helps set the plot on its alternate path away from actual events and gives us the most Tarantino-esque part of the film, the over-the-top violence in the big finish.

This movie is quite good, almost great, but it’s way too long. All three of Tarantino’s feature films since the death of his longtime editor Sally Menke have run 160+ minutes; Menke edited all of his films before she died, and none ran that long unless you want to consider Kill Bill as a single film. There is so much fat to trim from this film that you could easily have brought it home in close to two hours; the entire tangent showing Rick working in Italy is wasted time, and many scenes, including most of the driving scenes in L.A. and Rick’s tantrum in his trailer after he flubs his lines on set, could have been cut by half without losing anything of merit.

That criticism shouldn’t take away from how strongly Tarantino establishes this setting from the start of the film. It looks incredible in every aspect – clothes, hair, cars, background – and sounds just as good. If Tarantino was trying to capture a specific moment in time at a specific place, he nailed it, both in terms of this golden age of Hollywood and the post-Summer of Love counterculture movement that helped give rise to the Manson cult. Some exposition early in the movie – the scene at the playboy mansion, which gives us a great cameo from Damian Lewis as Steve McQueen – does help establish the setting, and to try to put the audience under the spell of the film, which might have held all the way to the climax had Tarantino not gone off on multiple needless digressions like Rick’s brief career in spaghetti westerns.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is also full of Tarantino signatures, which is mostly a positive thing. There’s tons of quick, snappy dialogue, especially in the many movie/TV show scenes within this movie, including DiCaprio’s Oscar-reel moment where he’s playing the villain in a western and gets to chew the scenery with the help of a precocious actress playing the little girl his character has kidnapped. There are cameos galore, including Lewis, Bruce Dern, and Lena Dunham (who … doesn’t really work here), as well as the stunt-casting of children of famous actors as many of the Manson followers (Qualley is Andie MacDowell’s daughter; we spotted the children of Ethan Hawke/Uma Thurman and Demi Moore/Bruce Willis, while director Kevin Smith’s daughter is here too). The movie is full of references and callbacks to other Tarantino films, a few of which I caught, including the dead-obvious riff on Inglourious Basterds. And it wouldn’t be a Tarantino film with lots of vaguely creepy closeups of women’s feet, especially the bizarre shot of Margot Robbie’s as Tate is watching herself in a movie theater and enjoying the positive reaction the audience has to her scenes, which is kind of ruined by the way her feet, propped on the seat in front of her, ruin the perspective of the shot and make her head (covered with comically large eyeglasses) seem so small in comparison.

Between the sheer ambition of the movie, Tarantino’s reputation, and the fact that it’s a movie about movies, this feels like a lock for a Best Picture nomination. I’m assuming Pitt will submit for Best Supporting Actor, and will absolutely get a nomination, while DiCaprio seems likely to get one for Best Actor. The most prominent actress in the film is Robbie, whose lack of dialogue has received much coverage already (with merit), and while I think she does the most she can to use body language to infuse Tate’s character with that of the promising ingenue, about to embark on a career of stardom, there just isn’t enough for her to do on screen. Qualley might have more dialogue, and if there was any doubt after The Leftovers that she could be a star, this ought to end it, but she’s also a side character and only in the movie for maybe 20 minutes. Beyond that, I could see Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and definitely Best Cinematography for the unusual shifts in perspective that Tarantino employs to change your sense of scale, including the wide shots of the Spahn Ranch and the party at the Playboy Mansion (where Dreama Walker plays Connie Stevens in a wig that perfectly mimics Stevens’ look in 1969), and one for Best Makeup and Hairstyling too. For what it’s worth, though, I wouldn’t vote for this over Parasite for the top honor.

Girl, Woman, Other.

The Booker Prize committee ignored the rules of their own award when they gave the 2019 Booker to two titles, claiming they couldn’t break the tie. The co-winners, Margaret Atwood’s The Testaments, the sequel to her prescient novel The Handmaid’s Tale; and Bernardine Evaristo’s Girl, Woman, Other, are both ardently feminist works that attack serious cultural issues of our moment in time, the former going after our deteriorating political environment, the latter the singular experiences of women of color, especially those who are also LGBTQ+. I haven’t read the former yet, but the latter is at the same time a thoughtful and engrossing set of intertwined tales of a dozen women spanning multiple generations, and a pretentious bit of prose gimmickry that often reads like a student parody of e.e. cummings.

Girl, Woman, Other is a novel of intersectionality – every character in it fits into at least two cultural minority groups, usually women of color, but also with several characters who are lesbians, trans, or otherwise LGBTQ+, and several of whom are or grew up economically disadvantaged. Evaristo depicts this through their own stories, which vary from the tragic to the darkly comic, which themselves intersect with each other in varying ways, sometimes rather slightly while at other times deeply woven together. Each of the stories, however, at least attempts to depict some aspect of women’s experiences in a modern world that is at the same time the best situation in modern history for women of color and for LGBTQ+ people and also still full of barriers and challenges, often all the more frustrating for how needless and outdated they are, to anyone who isn’t straight, white, male, and well-off.

The hazard of a short-story novel like Girl, Woman, Other is that the form rarely gives the reader time or depth to connect with any individual characters, and I think that is generally true here since characters appear prominently in their own stories and mostly vanish beyond them. Amma, the black lesbian playwright of the opening story and whose major production serves as the connection point for many of the stories herein, is the strongest and most fully developed character, but her own history is more of a foundation in the book than a compelling story in its own right, while that of her ex-girlfriend Dominique, who follows a domineering militant lesbian vegan feminist to a commune in the United States, is the most interesting for plot but also maddening for her own inability to recognize when she’s being gaslit and abused. (Not that these things don’t happen regularly in the real world.) The most balanced stories are those that reach back into the past and follow a character from youth to her old age, such as the teacher Shirley, who is disillusioned by the school where she works and the declining efforts of her students but dedicates herself to working with any student she thinks has the potential to move beyond their current circumstances.

The real downfall of Girl, Woman, Other, however, is the prose style, which mimics stream-of-consciousness poetry but becomes extremely tiresome over 400+ pages. Far too much of the book comprises sentences fragments, missing punctuation or capitalization, or half-finished thoughts, which might work well for a single chapter here but becomes overbearing by the end of the book. Evaristo is trying to imitate a style of thought, but these twelve women can’t possibly all think the same way, and giving them all the same voice through one hackneyed device serves to diminish their individuality as characters when the entire point of the book seems to be to celebrate the uniqueness of each of them, and of every reader as well.

I did fly through the book, since several of the chapters were fascinating and read like strong novellas, and because the prose style leaves so much white space on each page that the book isn’t as long as the page count might indicate. Maybe the cultural import of the book, the exposure of intersectional issues to the wider audience, was enough to justify it winning the prize (along with what sounds like a lifetime achievement award for Atwood). Maybe as a straight white male reader, I didn’t get some of what Evaristo was trying to express. I believe, however, that I understood enough of the points of the novel to know that the way in which she told the story was what kept me at arm’s length from its content.

Next up: Ursula K. Le Guin’s The Lathe of Heaven.