For The Athletic subscribers, I wrote about the Starling Marte trade, and looked at the Reds’ moves and chances of contention for 2020. Over at Paste, I reviewed Hadara, a 7 Wonders-like civ-builder with card-drafting and lots of simultaneous actions for fast play.

Keith Law: Wait in silence while planning your attack. Klawchat.

Bruce: Sam Hilliard played well last year though it was a small sample size. I was impressed the way he hung in there against Hader in a late season game and took him deep the other way. Does he have the chance to be a solid regular or maybe more?
Keith Law: Definitely has the tools to be no worse than a solid regular, but I do think the swing and miss, esp on breaking stuff, will be an issue in him getting there.

Bryan: Over/Unders on Oscar Mercado this season. 345 OBP, 18 HR, 26 SB.
Keith Law: I’m a big Mercado fan but I would go under, over, under, although HR totals for 2020 are impossible to predict until we see what the ball is like.

Justin: Know you’ve been a fan in the past, are we beyond the point of Gregory Polanco being productive? Would a good half-season net some trade value at the deadline for PIT?
Keith Law: Let’s see if him getting fully healthy this year gets him back on track.

Laurel: Does Jon Gray need a new home?
Keith Law: I think he would benefit from one, but “need” is too strong.

addoeh: Did you compare Skyline Chili to Olive Garden or something?  Reds fans have their torches and pitchforks out because you offered a measured opinion on their offseason.
Keith Law: It was kind of embarrassing to see how those fans conducted themselves over a piece that I don’t think was harsh at all. I got a similar reaction 13 months ago when I said the Wood/Puig deal was awful.

Mike: Can Justus Sheffield still turn into a mid-rotation piece? What are your expectations for him this season?
Keith Law: If his velocity is back to at least the low 90s, touching 94-95, in spring training, I’d say yes.

Paul: With spring training a little over a week away, how does not having a manager impact the Red Sox? How big a role does the manager play in developing the ST plans and practice schedule?
Keith Law: Not a big issue yet. I don’t think it matters at all till the games start.

Andy: Would Verdugo, Ruiz, and a couple non top 100 prospects get Betts? I’d rather the Dodgers hold on to Gonsolin for a 1 year rental.
Keith Law: No. You’re trying to trade the prospects you don’t like as much, instead of looking at it from Boston’s perspective, where they are fielding offers from other clubs too.

Jon: When is the correct time to trade Josh Bell? Boras guy, they’re obviously not going to re-sign him. With the DH coming to the NL, does it make sense to hold him until next offseason when more teams could have a use for him? Does he fetch two top-100 guys?
Keith Law: Still three years to FA, right? So I’d say there isn’t any urgency yet. See when the market emerges – 1b/dh types haven’t been valued that highly recently so they really need a contender with prospects to have a sudden need at that position.

Seth: Excited for Jesus Sanchez this season? Does the change in development team positively or negatively impact his future?
Keith Law: Neither.

Nick: Lost season for Urias already with the hamate surgery? He’ll certainly be able to play after his recovery but won’t that sap any true power reads until ’21?
Keith Law: Power was the least important aspect of his game, so as long as he plays, I don’t think so.

Andy: In the Betts to LA scenarios, I see people putting Bellinger in CF. Who do you think is a better CF, Betts or Bellinger?
Keith Law: Bellinger.

Arnold: Hey Keith, what are your thoughts on the Bryant grievance ruling? Seemed like a foregone conclusion since the rules were set up in a way teams could exploit it. Can the union do something in the next negotiation to address the issue and does the Cubs handling of the situation increase the odds of Bryant leaving in free agency and/or the Cubs trading him before them figuring Bryant won’t come back voluntarily?
Keith Law: I agree it was a foregone conclusion. It’s a hard issue to regulate, because proving service time manipulation is hard (even though we all see it), and if you try to move the thresholds teams will just alter how they manipulate the time. My suggestion at the time they did this to KB was to allow for a one-year right of first refusal option when a player was at 6.000 on the dot, so that at least teams would lose some disincentive to call up players to debut on Opening Day. That doesn’t solve the problem, but I think it’s a bit more fair to players, and gets the Kris Bryants of the world into the majors two weeks sooner.

Bruce: Will Dustin May be in the Dodgers rotation by the All Star break?
Keith Law: He’ll be on the staff by then.

Leo: Adam Frazier’s name popped up a lot as a possible trade candidate during the Winter Meetings. Was there any substance to that and should he return some value? Maybe a handful of 10-20 guys in an org?
Keith Law: No idea about substance but sure, a non-top ten prospect or two would make sense.

Kevin: Planning on watching the Super Bowl this weekend? It’s more of a social activity than a football game anyway. Anything interesting on the menu??
Keith Law: Probably not; we might go see a movie instead.

Jon: Keith, why do so many people in chats, both in yours and others around the web, suggest ridiculous one-sided trade proposals? And why respond to them?
Keith Law: My guess: most of these people don’t think their proposals are ridiculous. It’s not easy to value players when you don’t work inside the sport, and they are basing their opinions off the opinions of others (who may, in turn, be basing their opinions on those of others).
Keith Law: I respond to a tiny fraction of the proposals that come my way.

Luke: Matt Carpenter going to return to relevancy this season? Not sure what went wrong with him.
Keith Law: He got old. Time is a motherfucker.

Adam: I’m asking this specifically about Jasson Dominguez, but it applies to any prospect his age. How do teams balance focusing on his development as a player — i.e., better technique in the outfield — with cultural and general maturity that also has to go on at that age? It seems like an enormous task that would require a lot of cash and effort.
Keith Law: It is an enormous task and not every team does it well. Some teams prefer to target players who might be more mature, or speak English already, or have more education. Some have more extensive development programs for such players, and are doing things like building dorms at their spring training sites (e.g., Cleveland) to give players housing and feed them and just generally keep an eye on them.

dan: Do you see any common factors in prospects that in prior years you have projected highly who haven’t succeeded or in prospects you’ve rated fairly low who do well?  Is there a type of player, position, age, organization or the like which is a factor on missing either high or low?
Keith Law: If I notice any sort of bias like that in my evaluations, I change my process. Otherwise I’ll just keep making the same mistakes.

Nick: If/when O’neil Cruz moves off shortstop, can he make it work in center?
Keith Law: Right field is the floor. I’d try him at third first.

Gunther Centralperk: I asked the Kershaw/CH question (in a poorly-worded way) in last week’s chat. He’s been quoted as saying it’s “tough” for him to throw one and he “doesn’t have very big hands.” You said there were no mechanical issues, so it’s just a feel thing for him then? I’m trying to understand why a CH would/could be tough for him when he so quickly developed an excellent SL in 2010.
Keith Law: Maybe he has never found a grip that works? You do need to hold the ball in one of a few ways to make a changeup effective.

Mark: A report in the SD paper said the Pads / Sox have discussed either Lucchesi or Quantrill and either Neylor or Margot, plus Myers and a top prospect (but not in their top 5) for Betts. Assuming that’s accurate, what prospect would consider including – Baez? Morejon?
Keith Law: I’d include either of those in a deal for Betts. I’ve heard from multiple teams that their internal defensive metrics rate Margot very highly in center.

Steve: What do you know about Luis Rojas? Right hire by the Mets?
Keith Law: Great hire. Lot of managing experience, loved by players, data savvy, works well with R&D folks. They accidentally got it right.

Brian B: Hi Keith.  Thanks for moving to a platform where this Canadian can read your work.  I’m curious whether Outs Above Average has changed your outlook on any players?  As a Blue Jays fan, I was unsurprised by the Vlad Jr. (last place) ranking, but pleasantly surprised by Bo (maybe can stay at short?) and Biggio (not your favourite, I know, but perhaps there is something there?)
Keith Law: I like it a lot for outfielders. For infielders it’s incomplete, per comments from Mike Petriello, so I’m not using it.

Mark: Think Kris Bryant gets moved soon, now that his grievance has been decided?
Keith Law: The last I’d heard the Cubs hadn’t discussed him much with anyone, so I would still guess no.

Ben: Any favorite places to eat in Nashville? I’ve never been but may have a few days there soon.
Keith Law: Tons. Tremendous food city. Search this site for nashville (search bar up top) and you’ll find my posts.

Scott U: With the Astros hiring of Dusty Baker, how will that affect the development and 2020 playing time of the team’s up and coming young players like Kyle Tucker, Forrest Whitley, Jose Urquidy et al?
Keith Law: I don’t think it will. One, Baker was better at handling pitchers at each stop after the Cubs. Two, they’re going to need those players you mentioned to play and do well to win, so I am not worried that he might choose not to play a player who’s helpful – I’m not sure why he’d even do that at this point – because they don’t have great alternatives available.

Jim : How screwed is our republic if the Republicans vote no on witnesses? Corruption floodgates open wide, right?
Keith Law: You have to hope enough voters see this for what it is – and the media reports it accurately – that something changes in November. Otherwise, yes, we’re likely to see corruption expand to unprecedented levels.

Ian: Do people realize that saying that it is too soon to talk about Kobe’s rape case in the context of his legacy is the same thing as people (conservatives?) saying it is too soon to talk about gun control after a school shooting?
Keith Law: They don’t realize it. And now is exactly the time to talk about Kobe’s history, including the rape accusation and public treatment (including by the media) of his accuser. There is no  such thing as a “former rapist.”

Jason: Keith, are you troubled by the actions at the Washington Post in suspending their reporter for posting a link to an article (but now backtracking) and their reasons for suspending her especially with hundreds of reporters there supporting her and now with what has come to light about how in 2008, they were basically fawning over Kobe and divided the newsroom then?
Keith Law: Yes, and I contacted one of the editors involved in the decision to voice my support for Sonmez. They reversed the suspension, but it speaks to a poor process that catered to sentiment rather than reason.

Debra: Is George Valera a possible top 100 candidate or do we need another year of actual production at the plate before that happens?
Keith Law: Eventually, yes, he has that kind of upside.

Marcus: I have really hit it off with a person we hired for our company, but technically I am a superior on the chain of command. Others have remarked to me that they can tell this person likes me and I like this person for sure, but last thing I want is to make her feel uncomfortable if that is not the case. How do I go about things? Wait for her to say something to me or be honest about it?
Keith Law: I’d ask a lawyer – or HR – but boy does that sound like a terrible idea to me.

JJ: Soft class next year for the HOF.  How does this affect Curt Schilling’s candidacy?  Are there really voters so wishy-washy, that they won’t vote against Curt because of his racist tweets, but will change their minds if they have no one better to vote for?  That’s just bizarre.
Keith Law: I think he gets in next year.

Justalittleoutside: Hi Keith – If the robo-ump idea prospers, will that benefit hitters like Aaron Judge who (anecdotally) seems to get a fair number of pitches outside the strike zone called on him?
Keith Law: Such a change won’t affect all hitters and pitchers equally, but I’d like to see some data to support a claim that it will help/harm a specific player.

Dark Johnny: Does Tyler Anderson have a chance to start in SF?  Can he be a back end starter now that he’s out of COL?
Keith Law: I would lean no.

Marani: Matt Harvey’s still a FA.  What kind of contract would be reasonable for him?  I remember him as being the toast of NYC just a few years ago, but he’s been pretty awful the last 3+ years, and I’m wondering if anyone would give him more than a Triple A contract at this point.
Keith Law: Triple-A with invitation to spring training. He has to show he can get someone out at this point. It’s been too long.

Ryan: Have you noticed yourself getting more aggressive in ranking J2 signings earlier than you perhaps would have in the past?
Keith Law: No.

Matt: What would you guess is holding up a Betts to Dodgers trade at this point?
Keith Law: Probably the two sides not agreeing on the players involved. Just a guess.

Dave : Would you vote for Helton in the future? Crosses the 60 war mark on Baseball-Ref
Keith Law: I didn’t this year, even though I had spots open. He’s just short for me. I reserve the right to change my mind on any votes, though.

Jeff: More productive year in second year with new team ? Bryce or Manny Machado ?
Keith Law: I think both will be better, but Machado has more room to improve right now.

James: Have you seen Hjelle of the SF Giants pitch?  And how does his size impact his effectiveness against hitters?
Keith Law: In college, yes. Would love to see him extend a bit more out front to take advantage of the height, but he’s already deceptive and last year his velocity crept up a half-grade or more.

Lester: Do you prefer Cartel or Press for coffee in AZ ?
Keith Law: Cartel. Also love crepe bar, which uses local roasters and has a real barista on site.

King Felix: any chance for me making the Braves 25 man, or am I toast ?
Keith Law: I’m very pessimistic given your stuff the last year-plus.

Dave : I’ve been reading your film reviews, thank you for those. Is Parasite your best pic choice?
Keith Law: Yes, it’s still my #1 for 2019. I haven’t seen Uncut Gems, Jojo Rabbit, or Ford Vroom Ferrari.

Scott U: After Jorge Soler’s breakout season in 2019, how much regression, if any, will we see in 2020?
Keith Law: Some for sure. How much may depend on the Happy Fun Ball. He always had talent but don’t we have to be suspicious of any hitter whose big breakout came in 2019?

Pat D: Now that he’s got two years under the belt, do you have any opinions on Boone as a manager?  It seems like he’s done a good job, but he’s also obviously been blessed with loads of talent.
Keith Law: That’s fair. He inherited a very good team and they’ve been very good.

Lester: Shluld the Indians cash in on a Lindor trade now or at deadline?
Keith Law: Now, if they get an acceptable offer.

Trey: 2019 GDP number released : 2.3%. That’s nominal growth, slightly better than tepid, and def not as Trump markets “best economy in the history of the US.” So, why can’t dems capitalize on 1) lowest corporate taxes in history, 2) close to lowest income taxes on wealthy, 3) lowest capital gains taxes in history, 4) absurdly low ongoing federal fund rates, and yet…..only 2.3% gdp? GOP economic claim that they help the middle class is laughable, by ‘almost’ any metric.
Keith Law: I’d really like to see a change in how the media – and many universities – discuss macroeconomics. Things that the econ world long believed would lead to economic growth just haven’t in the last twenty years. Some have led to modest growth but income inequality; some haven’t led to growth at all. Anyway, whoever gets the Democratic nomination should campaign at least in part on the economy.

Mike @ Seattle: As a Mariners fan, this is the most excited I’ve ever been to see your prospects package. That said and based on the little I know, I found it odd they put so much faith in White as a first baseman that doesn’t have a ton of power. What did you think of that contract? Has he turned a corner at the plate, where he’s more than just elite defense at 1b?
Keith Law: He’s a solid regular, at least. I think there’s hard contact that might lead to power down the road.

Harrisburg Hal: My sons (youngest 8) really enjoy Azul.  While I’m not a programmer, it would seem an easy game to replicate as an app.  Do you understand the process why some games become apps, and others do not?
Keith Law: Licensing.

Mason : Hey Klaw, Mike Hazen has done a really good job of walking the line of competing and still building the farm system. amazing what happens when you get a real GM
Keith Law: I wrote that the other day. I completely agree.

JP: do you anticipate the Red Sox losing draft picks for the Alex Cora situation?
Keith Law: Yes, since Houston did.

Louis: Dusty seems like a bad fit. Astros are high tech and Dusty is as old school as it gets. Didn’t he once say guys who walk but can’t run just clog the basepaths
Keith Law: He did, although I think that was 15+ years ago.

Brian: Betts is obviously great but does he provide that much surplus value given that it is 1 year and close to $30 million? Are the calculations different when talking about a 7 WAR guy?
Keith Law: If those 7 WAR put you into the playoffs, then yeah, he would.

James: How good do you think the dodger rotation minus Ryu and Dick Mtn is? With the Kenta Maeda situation, Stripling being underwhelming, And the youth of Gonsolin and May, do you think it was a colossal failure not to get any SP help thus offseason?
Keith Law: They’ve held on to their young arms for a while now; I believe it was in part a bet on those guys being ready to fill out a rotation around this time.

Nick: No question, just a recommendation. I saw your review of American Factory, and thought I would recommend One Child Nation, which is streaming on Prime Video. Excellent documentary about China’s one child policy. Thanks for the great work.
Keith Law: Will check it out once I get through my Oscar list. Still too many films to see. I did watch Pain & Glory last night – Banderas was outstanding.

Jeff Campbell: I don’t get why the Dodgers wouldn’t give up their two “top” prospect, plus more, for one year of Mookie Betts.  It’s almost a cinch that at least one of those two will be a bust — that’s just the way it is with prospects — and Mookie would make them the prohibitive favorite.  Flags fly forever (even in Houston).
Keith Law: Aren’t they already the favorites to win the NL West?

Dan: Are you legitimately concerned about the Coronavirus or do you think it’s being a bit blown up in the news due to its quasi-mysterious status? At this point, 8000 people in the US have already died from the regular old flu this season, so that remains a much larger worry for me.
Keith Law: It’s Ebola all over again. Get your flu shot, and get your kids fully vaccinated, and if you’re of the right age for other shots get those too. Stop worrying about the disease that isn’t even here yet – and, so far, doesn’t seem to be as serious as SARS or MERS, although that could change – and worry about the ones that are.

JP: when with your prospect package start to drop at The Athletic?
Keith Law: February 24th.

Alex: Heading to San Diego next week for sun– do you have any new recommendations of restaurants to try  (Juniper & Ivy, Crack Shack for chicken sandwiches are my usual go tos)
Keith Law: Herb & Wood is spectacular. Cucina Urbana. RoVino the Foodery. And always breakfast at the Mission.

Spider Puig: How, exactly, is Moose not an upgrade at 2B when the Reds received a total WAR of -0.6 from the position in 2019?
Keith Law: Because they had Senzel ready to go at 2b; the difference between his defensive value there and his defensive value in CF is probably a win, and that’s before considering his trouble staying healthy and whether 2b is better for that.. Also, Moustakas’ defense at 2b is a complete unknown. He’s barely played it and I don’t think he’ll be average on defense.

BIll: Mize, Manning and Skubal: Do all three make their debut this year (health being the wild card), or do you see one or more of them being held back until ’21?
Keith Law: Health permitting they should all be up this year.

JP: unpopular opinion? do not do some half-assed DH to the NL option (DH as long as the starting pitcher is still in). either go full bore, or don’t change anything.
Keith Law: Full DH, please. Same rules everywhere.

Nick: I’m thinking of moving to Omaha. Have you ever been through there? Any thoughts on the city?
Keith Law: Once, really enjoyed it, great food scene, very manageable city, nice walkable downtown. It is, however, the least visibly diverse city I’ve ever visited.

Morris: The weirdest take I see on your Reds piece is that the trade for Puig got them Bauer, as if Taylor Trammell does not exist
Keith Law: In general, the Reds fans who were civil – I got more vile comments on Twitter yesterday than I had in some time – in disagreeing all seemed to dismiss the key point that they’ve traded three top 100 prospects in the last 13 months for not much return.

Matt: Careful, Keith.  Kobe was never even brought up on rape charges, much less convicted.  That story was extremely muddled, even for a “he said/she said” case.
Keith Law: GMAFB.

Michael: Co-worker of mine is suffering from major depression.  Cries all the time, can’t get out of his car, etc.  He’s seeing a psych and on meds.  Anything I can say/do that will help other than tell him I’m here for him, care about him, etc
Keith Law: That’s the best thing you can do. Don’t shy away from him at a time when others probably will.

Nick: Sonmez shouldn’t have been suspended, but can’t you agree that it was callous and tacky to re-tweet a 2017 article regarding Kobe’s rape case mere hours after his death?  THAT’s what she was compelled to announce upon hearing the news?
Keith Law: No, I don’t agree. I think it’s callous and tacky to praise him as a hero – especially talking about him as some sort of feminist – and completely ignore one of the most significant, public, and well-evidenced events of his life. Imagine how his victim felt seeing him lauded to the stars.

BIll: Do you see a scenario in which Lou Whitaker ever gets elected to the Hall of Fame? (At least the Tigers are finally retiring his number.)
Keith Law: I feel like the answer is no. Maybe if the Hall changes how it selects the people on the committees, but that seems unlikely.

Jason: I know your top 100 list isn’t coming out for a few weeks, but who do you think you’ll have higher: Dominguez or Abrams? Does Dominguez have too much risk to have him ranked super high or is the upside too good to ignore?
Keith Law: Abrams. Dominguez is 16 and hasn’t played a game yet.

Mike: In regards to the Kobe question – the stans for Kobe (or anybody) will always sound like idiots defending whomever it is they blindly follow. But a family is grieving a massive loss of both a husband/father and daughter/sister. Other family’s that were clearly connected to Kobe and his family are grieving their massive losses. IMO, this feels like the wrong time to take a stand on Kobe’s legacy, and add that to the discussion.
Keith Law: See above. This consider’s Kobe’s family, but doesn’t consider the woman who accused him of rape.

Brian: After a couple of run based cocktails do you ever think about your decision not to join the Astros front office and wonder if the highs (World Series win) would have been worth the lows (seemingly everything else)?
Keith Law: LOL, no. I have never regretted any of my decisions to decline chances to return to a front office – I think of all the time with my daughter I would have missed and I know I made the right calls.

Lara: Democrats campaign on an appeal to your greatest hopes  — health care for everyone, a perfect environment, everyone gets along, etc.; Republican campaign on an appeal to your greatest fears.
Keith Law: Fear sells.

JR: Are you a fan of The Good Place? If so, thoughts on final season (if you’ve been watching). I’m enjoying it, but it’s definitely run it’s course. Always better for a TV show to leave too soon then stay too long.
Keith Law: I loved S1-2, need to watch S3-4. I couldn’t do it weekly – that is a show I think I have to binge.

Sean: As a giants fan, I kept hoping for a Brandon Belt break out…which never came and likely never will…however he has been an average-good major leaguer for a while now. I should be happy with the production he’s provided and not disappointed that he never became a superstar right?
Keith Law: Yes – can’t control the injuries, either.

J: I recently saw in a documentary that Mick Jagger used The Master & The Margarita for inspiration when writing the lyrics for Sympathy For The Devil
Keith Law: Yep, he’s said that before. That book is far more influential than I ever realized in college when I was first assigned it.

Trey: Brailyn Marquez, finally a solid recent Cubs s pitching prospect, TOR starter or power closer? And do the Cubs have any other prospects that could hit the rotation soonish?
Keith Law: More likely a power closer IMO.

Uli Jon: Did you ever review “Left Hand of Darkness”? Halfway through and it’s my genre holy trinity of concept, world building, and writing skill, the last of which is sometimes lacking in sci-fi.
Keith Law: I did indeed, and loved it.

JP: would MLB consider it a “problem” if the same 10 teams from 2019 made the 2020 playoffs? or does it not matter?
Keith Law: They wouldn’t, and I’m not sure I would. If that continued going forward, yes, that would become one.

Michael: For anyone who thinks Kobe maybe didn’t rape her, read https://www.thedailybeast.com/kobe-bryants-disturbing-rape-case-the-dn…
Keith Law: Is that what Sonmez tweeted?

Spencer: A finance professor in college once told me that we can argue over policy and how that policy will affect economic growth all we want, but at some point certainty becomes more important.  Based on the proposal differences from the right and left, I’m beginning to think he may have been on to something.  Not saying where we should land; just saying people can’t plan when both sides are advocating for large changes every four years.
Keith Law: Perhaps, although to some extent I think all the macro stuff I was taught (20+ years ago) assumed too strongly that people would alter basic decisions around work and life in response to small changes in tax rates.

Lee: It’s been reported that Betts is seeking 12 years for 420 million.   A deal that long just seems like it’s destined to blow up in the teams face.  I’d love for the Red Sox to keep him but after seeing what’s happened to Dustin Pedroia on a much cheaper/not as many years deal, I’m not surprised that ownership is balking at doing that.   I’m all for Betts getting as much money as he possibly can but I also understand why it’s almost certainly going to be a bad deal for the team.
Keith Law: He can ask for that, doesn’t mean he’ll get it or close to it.

Giuseppe: Do you have any tips for stretching pizza dough? Mine always suffers from springback.
Keith Law: Might need to rest it longer. Also I stretch mine over the backs of my hands – knuckles, no fingertips – so gravity does some of the work. But I think the gluten in your doughs hasn’t relaxed enough.

Dan: Speaking of vaccines, I live in NJ and am incredibly frustrated by recent anti-vaxxers’ “wins” in the state. Really hope exemption loopholes are closed soon, but it’s so demoralizing to see anti-science bullshit continue to proliferate across the country.
Keith Law: Especially in a state that would like to claim it has good schools.
Keith Law: Keep calling your reps.

John: Why is Dusty’s reputation from 15 years ago still so difficult for him to shed? He has obviously always been one of the best at the managing people aspect of the job. And now that analytics and/or front office drive so much of the strategic aspect of the game, his weaknesses have been covered up.
Keith Law: It was extremely visible. You screw up in the playoffs and no one ever forgets.

Shaun: favorite Homestar Runner bit of all time?
Keith Law: The Homestarmy episode. Will you, stupid?

Erik: Do you endeavor to watch as many Oscar noms as possible or just ones that peak your interest
Keith Law: I try to see as many as I can and only skip ones to which I have a real objection – Richard Jewell this year, Hacksaw Ridge a few years ago.

Kip: Keith, why does the left reject nuclear energy at face value?  The technolgoy has improved, creates the majority of energy in France, and the amount of waste generated is less than advertised.  It seems foolish to reject emissions free energy entirely.
Keith Law: Fear. It’s unpopular, even though it’s quite safe overall. It’s a science literacy issue.

TomBruno23: Enjoying some brussels sprouts (thanks for the receipe from long ago) with some kung pao sauce. Thinking about taking down the entire 1lb bag. Will I be ok?
Keith Law: You stay … over there.

JB: It looks like Vandy will roll Austin Martin out at 3B again this year, but Corbin has also said Martin is one of the best defensive CFs he’s coached. Assuming Martin is plus out there as well, do you think pro teams will draft him as a CF where the bat plays even more than at 3B?
Keith Law: I thought I read that their plan was to try him some at SS. He played tremendous third base defense for me last spring.

Joe: Reds fans would like to point out that it’s embarrassing for a senior writer to claim that their pitching needed upgrading and not their hitting, whole also saying that a 2 or 3 WAR moose isn’t a big upgrade over the negative WAR they accumulated at that position last year.
Keith Law: I’m sure they would like to claim that, but they’d be wrong. Their pitching last year rested on the backs of multiple pitchers having career years of sorts that are not likely to be repeated. Sonny Gray had a career high in WAR after three years of far inferior performance, and then had minor elbow surgery. Luis Castillo hit a career high in innings to get to his new WAR high, and some of the underlying data looks fluky. I’ve pointed out that Desclafani has career-long issues with LHB, lacking a good pitch to use against them. Those three guys combined for around 11 WAR last year, with Desclafani throwing less than a full season. I don’t think you would reasonably bet the over on that, or even bet for a straight repeat. Multiple Reds fans claimed I said their pitching wasn’t good in 2019, but I never said that because it’s not true. I said it is a weakness for them in 2020, an opinion I hold based on what I just said above (and more). As for second base, I answered that above. Sorry, Joe.
Keith Law: Adding this after the chat … I also think Senzel and Winker are going to be much more productive at the plate this year.

Mike: I respect your consistency when it comes to defending sexual assault victims. I’m trying to look inward and figure out why I find it so distasteful to be brought up right now, and I guess it’s just an overwhelming sadness I have for that poor mother. But you’re right, I’d hate for that poor victim to think the world had forgotten that this man was (at least on one occasion) a monster.
Keith Law: The part of all of this I find most objectionable is the argument that it’s too soon to point out negative facts about someone’s who’s died. When is it okay? The next day? A week later? Ever? Why does someone’s death mean we can’t discuss the complexity of their life and/or their legacy? It seems like the ideal time to do so, even if that means touching on sensitive topics.

Jason: What was your objection to Hacksaw Ridge?
Keith Law: Its anti-Semitic domestic abuser director.

E.H. Zwick: Any Athletic podcasts on the horizon?
Keith Law: Yes.

Nolan: don’t talk about guns after a school shooting, don’t talk about rape after a rapist dies, but the second a virus spreads in an asian country and people are dying, start in on that orientalist bullshit!
Keith Law: Some day, one of those viruses will start here. It’s inevitable. Then we’ll see what it’s like to have the world close its doors to us, and maybe we’ll regret how we’ve acted in the past to countries that needed our help rather than our scorn and our prejudice.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Reminders: My prospect rankings run on The Athletic the week of 2/24, and my second book, The Inside Game, will be out on April 21st from Harper Collins. You can pre-order the book here. Thank you as always for all of your questions and for reading. I’ll try to keep these going until the rankings are ready!

Keith Law: It can’t all be wedding cake. Klawchat.

Krontz: Taylor Trammell ever hit enough for a Jacoby Ellsbury comp to be reasonable?
Keith Law: I don’t see them as similar players, really. I believe Trammell will hit, though.

Keith: Clay Davenport’s preseason win projections really like the Mets (96 wins) in the National league behind only the Dodgers (102). What have they done this offseason to improve so significantly, and do you buy into it?
Keith Law: I would bet the under on both win totals there.

Keith: Who do you project as the White Sox starting rotation in July 2020?
Keith Law: Giolito, Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Cease, Kopech. I wouldn’t rule out seeing Stiever in the majors before the season ends. Obviously I’m putting Lopez in the bullpen, which I’ve always thought was his ideal role.

addoeh: With Terry Jones’s passing, what was your favorite Python sketch?  Upper Class Twit of the Year has to be mine.
Keith Law: That’s a contender. Argument Clinic. The Piranha brothers. And the entire show built around the Michael Ellis gag is probably my favorite thing they did, although that’s a series of sketches. It’s hilarious and also wonderfully paranoid.

Keith: Hey Keith, thanks for the chat. Does Dylan Carlson’s breakout last year fit is profile? His BA was 50 points higher than his career average and his slg perctange was .150 points higher. He did do part of this at AAA in his age 20 season. Thanks and good luck at the Athletic.
Keith Law: Not sure about your question but I’ll say I think the breakout was real.

Dee Arby: Klaw, I really enjoy how you speak up regarding domestic violence.  My question is, how do you deal with the issue that because these athletes are so rich, their accusers can have ulterior motives? For example, how would you have done with the Brian Banks issue? He was the USC linebacker who spent six years in prision because he was falsely accused? Genuinely curious, not being snarky.
Keith Law: The “ulterior motives” thing is kind of bullshit. Most abuse/assault victims don’t report. Of those who do, nearly all are telling the truth. There’s a substantial social and often financial cost to coming forward. Just because every once in a blue moon there’s a case of a false accusation – which gets over-reported, of course – doesn’t mean we can or should generalize and think that many more accusers are lying. They’re not. The data say so, and ignoring that is classic base-rate neglect.

Lyle: In BA’s 2023 Opening Day Lineups for the Mariners, they had Tom Murphy at catcher. (I know, I know, not your list.) Can you come up with any legitimate reason other than a trade as to why Cal Raleigh would not be the starting catcher by then (especially wrt Murphy)?
Keith Law: No, I’d put Raleigh there.

bartleby: Keith, your comments on the Clemens/McReady relationship were interesting- what do you think of Woody Allen?
Keith Law: He’s canceled, appropriately. (I only saw … three of his films, I think, the last being Midnight in Paris whenever that came out.)

Michael: Your thoughts on the Metz Hiring Louis Rojas?
Keith Law: I wasn’t really kidding with my tweet the other day – the process ended up with them hiring a highly qualified manager, one with ~1000 games of managing experience, a bilingual guy who’s considered forward-thinking, comfortable with data, and good with players. Their second choice was the better candidate.

Buckner 86: Is Balazovic‘s upside a top 25 SP?
Keith Law: That might be aggressive but I’m a big fan.

Mike: You may have covered it in a previous chat, but are you going to be doing any podcasts with the Athletic or elsewhere?
Keith Law: Yes, with the Athletic, starting later this spring.

Tyler: Congrats on the move to The Athletic. Will you still be holding chats here regularly or moving to a different platform (presumably theirs)?
Keith Law: Klawchats will continue here for the foreseeable future.

Del, Venice CA: Whenever anyone talks about the Mets the consensus seems to be that Dom Smith is the odd man out and he should be traded. Since JD Davis’ value could never be higher after his 2019 season AND he fields multiple positions like a DH shouldn’t he be the one of the two to be shopped?
Keith Law: The assumption built into those statements is that Smith would have a higher trade value because he’s younger and a plus defender at 1b.

John Olerud: Full disclosure, I have posed this question to other baseball writers I respect, as I am truly interested to see if there are different perspectives on this subject. Based on the numbers, I’m surprised there hasn’t been much discussion (at least none that I’ve seen) about how Larry Walker’s career is truly a lot closer statistically to Jeter’s than impressions would imply. Indeed, Jeter has the milestone numbers that are important with HOF voters. And he was especially good when it ‘mattered’, but that has a lot to do with who and what teams he was lucky enough to play with and for. Indeed, this is not so much to disparage Jeter, but more a reflection of the “fame” element inherent to the HOF. Whatevever the reasons, do you personally find it at all strange that there seems to be this prevailing feeling that somhow Walker doesn’t breathe the same air as Jeter? Or maybe you disagree entirely with this premise? Thanks.
Keith Law: Jeter is a clear HoFer, but benefited from playing for the team that gets on national TV most often, and from having great teammates that helped him appear in the playoffs almost every year and in six World Series, and from announcers falling all over themselves to praise him even for things he did poorly (coughdefensecough). He was a great player and I voted for him. I just don’t understand why we have to inflate his accomplishments rather than respecting him for exactly who and what he really was.

Moe Mentum: I know you favor board games that involve strategy and puzzles (e.g. Carcassone), but do you ever play more mainstream “party” games that reward creativity with words? I think it would be fun to play games like Balderdash or Wise & Otherwise with a man with your wit and flair for language.
Keith Law: Wise & Otherwise is cool. I like Taboo as well, and there’s a game from about two years ago called Trapwords that works similarly but where the opposing team picks the words you can’t say. When I’m in a group setting and we want a party game I’ll usually suggest One Night Ultimate Werewolf (since it requires almost no instruction to play) or Codenames.

Craig: The only way I can make sense of the Brewers offseason is that they want a bunch of interchangable parts at 1B, SS and 3B in the hopes that with platoon splits and pinch hitting, they can be league averagish at those positions and have Yelich/Huira carry the team offensively. Is this accurate?
Keith Law: I don’t like assuming any team is done at this point in the offseason. Still some decent FA out there and a lot of trade chatter.

The Sloth: KLaw, are you attending any Phish concerts on the summer tour?
Keith Law: My girlfriend pulled up the schedule last night … decent chance we’ll go to one of the two mid-Atlantic venues in August.

The Sloth: What are your thoughts on the upside and most likely outcome for Brennan Davis?
Keith Law: That’s a question I’ll answer in the top 100, which will run the week of February 24th on the Athletic.

Joe: How does the Beltran news affect his HOF candidacy?
Keith Law: My guess is not at all.

Sammy So-So: If you’re a GM trading for a player like Nolan Arenado who has an opt-out after two years, are you offering assets in return to the other team just for those two years if a new arrangement with the player can’t be reached before the deal is done?
Keith Law: I’m valuing my return as two years of Arenado and assuming he’s opting out. I wouldn’t pay in prospects on the assumption he’s staying.
Keith Law: If he doesn’t opt out, something has gone wrong.

Christian (Raleigh, NC): Keith, which Braves pitching prospect has the best chance of making a big jump this year and helping out at the major league level? Anderson, Wright, Toussaint, Muller, etc.  P.S. — I hope things work out and you are able to come to the Raleigh/Cary area for a book signing. I would love to come out and meet you.
Keith Law: Anderson is the best, but Touki has the biggest potential to make a jump. Such a great athlete and a loose, quick arm.

Kevin: What are the chances that Anthopolous opts not to resign Freeman to a worthy extension?
Keith Law: Freeman will be 32 when his current deal ends. I’m not sure what a “worthy” extension means but I’m not rushing to extend him into his mid-30s.

Joe: Orioles are going in on BA for leaving Mountcastle off their top 100.  Seems like it would be odd for a guy who doesn’t walk or offer defensive value to actually make a top 100, no?
Keith Law: He’s not a top 100 candidate for me at all.

Matt: What board game do you think is underrated? What do you like about this game?
Keith Law: New Bedford – a worker placement game with a lot of fun elements (including the whaling aspect) that plays well under an hour. Glen More – a medium-weight game of tile-laying where one of the main goals is to convert wheat into whiskey. I’ve been playing La Isla a bit more lately, and I really like the way it forces you to plan ahead a few turns but also prevents you from having to plan ahead more than that, so it doesn’t become too heavy a game.

Tony: I’m not sure how to phrase this as a question, but the thing that I’ve never been able to make peace with about Andruw Jones’ Hall of Fame candidacy is that while he was truly one of the best defenders at his position in history for a decade, he then spent the last five years of his career being so bad defensively that not only was he moved off of center field, he was pretty much moved off the field entirely.
Keith Law: Because of his knees. He was so elite a defender that he’s become the modern standard for CF defense.

Bighen: Mets are going to make a bad Marte trade because Wilpons and Bvw know this is basically their last shot. No real question here but a little frustrating
Keith Law: Maybe. The Padres seem motivated to make a deal, and they have the prospects to acquire anyone, so there’s some chance they make a bad trade too.
Keith Law: (FTR, I wouldn’t deal Gore for any of these 1- or 2-year players.)

Professor Woland: I’m worried that the narrative now with regards to Altuve is going to be that he owes his success to the sign stealing stuff instead of natural talent, which would have a negative impact on future players of a similar size. Do you think that will be the case?
Keith Law: I have had that thought too. I hope it’s not the case; it’ll help if Altuve has a typical Altuve year in 2020.

Jerry: What kind of peak slash could you see for Kelenic? Is .300/.400/.500 in the realm of possibilities? Is he an MVP-caliber type of prospect (all things considered of course)?
Keith Law: MVP caliber prospect. He was in my midseason top 10 in July.

Casey: Is Zach Thompson a guy who could contribute sometime late this season or would it be wiser to get him through a full minor league season healthy and let him compete for a spot next year?
Keith Law: Seems aggressive especially since he had the Kentucky Forearm flu just two years ago.

Logan: Should the contracts of Acuna and Ozzie allow the Braves to go bigger in other areas? Seems like Alex is not interested in any kind of long term type additions..
Keith Law: Other than 3b, where would he really upgrade? I feel like they’re set at so many spots.
Keith Law: I guess if you could convert the pitching prospects into a top-end starter, sure, but I don’t know of any one that’s available.

Dan on Oahu: Keith- congrats on your move to the Athletic, I had been on the fence about subscribing but jumped on the bandwagon as soon as I saw the move and it’s well worth the price of admission. What would be a reasonable return to the Cubs for Bryant from either the Braves or Dodgers? Same question for Arrenado?
Keith Law: I heard from one exec that the Cubs weren’t really talking Bryant with suitors. This was a club that, in theory, would be in his market.

Nathan: I have a 7 year old daughter who loves all things Disney. With Disney+ available she is wanting to watch some of the “classic” movies. How would you handle some of the blatantly racist movies of the past? I’m thinking specifically Dumbo (the crows) and Peter Pan (native Americans). Do I not let her watch those? Let her watch those but explain why they’re bad portrayals of these groups of people?
Keith Law: I had forgotten how racist Peter Pan was until I re-watched it with my daughter. She saw it once and that’s it; we didn’t let her watch it again. I don’t think she’s seen the animated Dumbo.

Hank: Why haven’t the Angels received much heat for sacrificing their 1st rounder Wil Wilson just to shed Cozarts salary? DBacks caught hell for the same type deal Arroyo/Touki..
Keith Law: The Angels used that money to sign Rendon. The Dbacks did it because they’d screwed up elsewhere.

Doug: Do you see Dansby Swanson ever being more with bat? Seems like his EV and Hard Hits improved, hopefully better results are coming. Maybe a Brandon Crawford type late bloom with the bat?
Keith Law: Yes, I think there’s more there.

Nick: Re: Daulton Varsho, does the bat play if they move him down the defensive spectrum?  And do you think he can contribute for AZ this year?
Keith Law: Yes, it does. No, probably not.

Larry: Who is the college pitcher and hitter you think will make the biggest jump this spring?
Keith Law: I’m still figuring out when it’ll run but I will have something on the draft up at the Athletic within the next month. I really liked Cole Wilcox in HS, but scouts I’ve asked have him more back of the first; I feel like he could end up in the top ten if he does what I think he can do all spring.

Doug: Lucius Fox and Anderson Tejeda – do they both stay at SS?  Who has the better future?
Keith Law: Fox for sure does. I think he’s the better prospect but I also haven’t done as much work on Texas for my top 100 yet.

Kevin W: What do you think of 3 batter tule and september rosters down from 40-28
Keith Law: I preferred a 2-batter rule but I’ll take this. September roster reduction I think addresses a real problem in a way that hurts players.

Steve : Seems like the Mets have taken a lot of unnecessary abuse for this Beltran saga.  It feels to me that they did the right thing firing him and Rojas was the right choice with his experience managing (and maybe should have been hired in the first place.)  You agree?
Keith Law: Their mistake was hiring Beltran in the first place, because he has no experience whatsoever. They have since done all the right things. (Also, if I were Beltran, I’d offer myself to any interested club as a manager in the minors this year. Go get a year of experience and odds are you’ll get interviewed for every opening next October.)

Kevin W: What is longest home run you have ever seen in person?
Keith Law: I’m not sure about in-game but I saw Barry Bonds take BP in Toronto in 2003 and hit one off the restaurant in CF that is the hardest-hit ball I think I’ve ever seen. Gallo at the Futures Game might be the longest HR in a game.

Dusty: I appreciate the candidness in your newsletter about the difficult moral judgments involved in voting for the Hall of Fame.  I just wanted to say that I appreciate having you as a voter and I hope you will continue to vote, as I feel like you give a voice to those of us who read you regularly and there need to be more voices like yours and not less.  Either way, I respect your decision and the thoughtfulness and openness with which you wrestle with it.
Keith Law: I feel like voting is a privilege and a responsibility. If I can’t fulfill the duties of a voter to my own standards, I won’t vote.

Beau: Chris Murphy (BOS) have any chance of remaining a starter? Didn’t seem to walk as many as expected in his prob debut.
Keith Law: Yes, definitely.

Kevin W: Do you think the best movies today are better than the best movies of 70’s and before?
Keith Law: Yes, but the gap between the best movies and the most commercially successful ones has widened.

James: My first Klawchat since you joined the Athletic so want to start off saying congrats. I’m seemingly one of the few who have no issue including Francisco Alvarez in a deal for Starling Marte. In brief, him being 3-4 years off at best, the overall “failure rate” (for lack of a better term) of catching prospects, and Marte’s no doubt talent and fit on the win-now Mets roster are all reasons why I see his inclusion as a headliner as a no-brainer. Am I crazy?
Keith Law: Crazy, no. But I don’t think I’d do it.
Keith Law: Not saying I wouldn’t trade Alvarez, just that I wouldn’t do it for a year of Marte (EDIT: Two years of Marte, including the team option). Plus, you just traded Kelenic in a deal that was an abject disaster … don’t further gut the system for more short-term help.

Kevin W: Do you think cora gets a lifetime ban?  And should altuve and bregman (and whoever else) be punished if they are caught cheating?
Keith Law: I hope not (for Cora). The players got immunity; we can’t change that now.

Matt: I watched American Factory last night. What a dystopian movie. And it’s REAL! How on earth can those workers justify not having an union when they went from making $30 to $14? I just don’t get how people fall for this garbage.
Keith Law: People falling for propaganda and voting against their own interests has been going on in the U.S. for over a century. It’s particularly stark now because, at least in my opinion, better information is available, and it’s easy to see how corporate money pushes its messages more strongly than, say, the pro-union forces were able to.
Keith Law: (Also, no idea how that movie didn’t immediately result in NLRB investigations into Fuyao. Its executives violated federal labor laws on camera!)

Steve: My wife is due for our first kid in two weeks. Any advice on fatherhood?
Keith Law: Get The Happiest Baby on the Block. And help your wife get as much sleep as she can.

Vincent Adultman: Has Josh Breaux passed Anthony Siegler (even if neither look like starting catchers) and does Antonio Gomez have a higher ceiling than both?
Keith Law: No.

Vincent Adultman: BA’s recent mock draft had Pete Crow-Armstrong falling to the Yankees at the bottom of the round- leaving the team pairing aside, has he “fallen” this much in the eyes of evaluators (or is it that deep of a draft) and if he fell that far, would you expect him to go to college?
Keith Law: He’s not a top half of the draft guy right now; I’m not sure he’d make my top 30 if I wrote one today.

Joe: Please explain how Sammy Sosa is not a HOF ?
Keith Law: 58.6 career WAR with a short peak is actually on the low side for Hall of Famers.

Roger: What do you make of Coors field splits? Arenado’s BA and OPS are pretty staggering such that I’d be very cautious in a trade, no?
Keith Law: Plenty of evidence that Rockies who leave Coors outperform their road stats from when they were with Colorado.

Alex: I 100% agree that a discussion needs to be had regarding DV and the HOF.  As a family law lawyer, though, I struggle with the suspensions that leagues hand out to players that involve withholding their pay.  In a lot of these cases, the victim is awarded a percentage of the abusers earnings as spousal support, child support, etc.  By docking an abuser’s pay, you are taking money out of the victim’s pocket.  That isn’t ideal.  Of course, a domestic abuser getting to appear on the national stage isn’t ideal, either.  What’s the answer?  The suspension holds but equalizing payments are made to the victim directly from the team withholding salary?
Keith Law: I appreciate the insight & sentiment in your proposal, but in the cases we’ve had so far, many of the victims have stayed with the suspended players, so I’m not sure how you could pay a player’s wife while he was suspended without pay.

lucas: If Amed Rosario struggles again at SS this year (acknowledging he improved in the 2nd half), would you move on, knowing Gimenez and Mauricio are knocking on the door?
Keith Law: He was much better in the second half. I’m not giving up on him.

Jason: What is  the ceiling for Luis Urias?
Keith Law: Above average regular. Curious to see how Milwaukee gets him 500 AB this year, which he needs.

Brandon: Related to my Fire Bridich question–Bridich said, regarding Arenado’s opt-out, that it was Bridich’s suggestion.  Two questions: (a) if that is true, is there any rational justification for the team to suggest a player opt-out unless needed to make the deal; (b) if not true, is there any good PR reason for the team to assert that the opt-out was the team’s idea.  Thanks.
Keith Law: I have no inside knowledge on this but I would be shocked if Arenado would have signed an extension without an opt-out.

Kevin: To the people who think Scott Rolen is not a HOFer, but vote in Omar Vizquel….what is wrong with you
Keith Law: A great question.

Joe: Disney+ will preface these movies now acknowledging they’re from another era.
Keith Law: Yes, and I’m not sure if that’s the right approach, or if they should do what they did with Song of the South, which is bury the movie below a million copies of the E.T. video game.

Oscar: All of the brouhaha regarding Jeter not getting 100% of votes has allowed me to realize just how much I don’t care about the HOF.
Keith Law: It’s so dumb. You get the same plaque with 75.00001% and with 100%.

Gary C: How good of a prospect is Neovli Marte for Seattle? What is his scouting report?
Keith Law: Another one for the top 100/org rankings next month.

Mark: EXTREMELY HAPPY to hear you’re going to be doing a podcast in the near future. Any chance we can get regular segments with Karabell? There’s still a Baseball Today-sized hole in my heart. #FreeBiasCat
Keith Law: I don’t know if ESPN would allow that, but of course I’d love to get the band back together.

Lee: I read a report that Triston Casas grew an inch and gained 10 pounds this offseason.  His bat seems legit but any chance he could stick at 3B?
Keith Law: For me, no. 1b only.

Sammy Sosa: Have you ever played Secret Hitler? Curious how the gaming community feels about it.
Keith Law: I hate the name and theme.
Keith Law: It’s just not funny.

Ben: If healthy, and that’s a big if, could Daulton Jeffries be a #4 starter?
Keith Law: TBH, I have no idea what he’ll look like when healthy. He was very good for a hot minute in college and then got hurt.

Chris: Has Julio Rodriguez passed kellenic as the mariners best prospect in your opinion?
Keith Law: Come on.

Matt W: The Mets wouldn’t have taken so much flack if they were quick and decisive with the move. They waited what, 3 days before making any comment at all, said there was gonna be a statement and then never gave one. Then, there was the ridiculous “I’m just here to talk about Mike Piazza Way” press gaggle the next day, followed by the news dropping a couple hours later. Even that wasn’t straightforward, did Beltran step down? Was it a mutual parting of ways? For all the things the Wilpons are terrible at, and they are numerous, PR/Comms is possibly the worst. So many self-inflicted wounds, even if they ultimately come to the correct decision.
Keith Law: Yes, they are PR-unsavvy, but in the end they got it right. I’m good with that. I’ll still mock the Wilpons for their incompetence, though.

Robert: True or false: the luxury tax penalties are toothless enough that it should never be a priority for the Cubs (or Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers) to get under the threshold if they have any realistic chance at the postseason.
Keith Law: True.

TP: Excited for your work on labor issues with The Athletic.  Apologies if this is too personal, but are you currently or have you been in a union? How might your experiences help shape your coverage?
Keith Law: I’m not now and have never been in one – never worked in a union shop. My parents didn’t either.

Joe: Do you have any favorite board game apps?
Keith Law: I ranked the top 25 for Vulture last year, and then ranked the 8 best new apps of 2019 for Ars Technica. Bear in mind the Carcassonne iOS app, #1 on the first list, is going away on March 1st as the developers’ license is expiring, so buy it now if you want it.

K: Just how good is Kumar Rocker? Strasburg/Harper tier or less?
Keith Law: Way less. That is some rarefied air there.

Nick: Over/Under 25 homers for Evan White in 2020?
Keith Law: I’ll take the under.

Luke: Why We Sleep is fascinating, thanks for the recommendation. In what ways, if any, has the book altered your sleep habits?
Keith Law: I try to be more rigorous about getting to bed on time and giving myself a sleep window of 8 hours. (I am not always successful.) I also am less likely to have a single drink on a weeknight, and I put room-darkening shades in my bedroom.

Aureliano Buendia: Keith, are you planning to watch Jojo Rabbit? I did it recently and it was so much better than expected considering the subject. I’m not saying it should win Best Picture but I think it is worthy of the nomination
Keith Law: Yes, maybe this weekend.

Dave: When do you play boardgames– evening, weekend afternoon, other?
Keith Law: Yes. I play online too – I played one of you this week, in fact. (Good game, reader person whose name I don’t know!)

Gunther Centralperk: Do you see any mechanical issues with Kershaw regarding his lack of a change-up? I really wish he’d work on it and get back to being close to his old self.
Keith Law: I’m missing something here. He’s never really used a changeup – Fangraphs has his highest rate at 5.5% in his first year – and there’s no mechanical issue here. He’s lost his fastball. His average velocity has dropped to a career low for two straight years. That’s his problem.

Robert: No real question…just wanted to point out how mind-blowing it is that the Ricketts family has used up every ounce of good will from the World Series win in just three years. They should’ve been heroes for life, but they’re already disliked as much as the Tribune company was.
Keith Law: It is rather astonishing. All they really had to do was keep the status quo. But I don’t think they care one iota about good will. They care about making more money.

Sean: Will the padres be able to find 500 ABs for trent grisham this year?
Keith Law: As the roster currently stands, yes.

Mike: I know many people ask for parenting advice.  A must have book for parents with children who are challenging, are easily frustrated, and exhibit temper issues is The Explosive Child.  Key theme from the book is thqt children behave well when they can, not when they want to.   Really helps parents better understand what our job is
Keith Law: Thank you. I’d be interested in that myself.

Matt W: What are the chances the one non-Jeter ballot was a blank ballot?
Keith Law: I suppose it’s possible but we had no blank ballots last year.

KF: Do you think the Twins will trade for an impact starter before the season starts, or wait until the trade deadline? What are some names to keep an eye on?
Keith Law: I don’t see any impact starters available in trade.

X-man: Mr. Keith Law, The latest Betts rumor seems ludicrous. “Major prospect haul” but not including any of their top 5?  Is their next group good enough for any combination to be worth it to Boston, even before the supposed poison pill of including Myers (even if including Myers also meant that Price was in the deal but just left out of the stories)?
Keith Law: If the Padres are taking the whole salary, sure – and while I probably wouldn’t do this, you could put together a good package of prospects from outside of the Padres’ top five. Morejon, Weathers, Miller, Baez, Arias – these are all really good prospects but not top five in that system.

Pat D: If Andujar is healthy enough, should he DH and Stanton play in left?  Or is Stanton best to just DH all the time anymore?  This isn’t really a major problem though, is it?
Keith Law: Depends on Stanton’s health, no?

Mat Ji: Did you ever explain to us why you maliciously changed this website so that some of us couldn’t access it via our phones?  For the record, that was probably the most hilarious criticism of you I have ever heard.
Keith Law: For folks who missed it, someone commented and accused me of blocking mobile users from seeing the site. There is an issue here, from something Hostgator did, that I’m trying to unravel, but the idea I would block an entire swath of the audience from the site is WTF.

DJ: Were you aware of any shenanigans going on with the center field restaurant “spying” rumors in toronto and would a gm be aware of it like in the case of houston
Keith Law: None of that was while I was there.

Chris: Favorite homemade condiment? I’m contemplating trying the XO sauce recipe from Serious Eats, and am struggling to make a decision.
Keith Law: I pickle onions regularly (also a Serious Eats recipe, I think). Homemade mayonnaise is the best. I haven’t made chimichurri in a while but it’s great and keeps a while with all the acid.

Matt W: Speaking of outdated disney+ offerings, my wife and I watched Davey Crockett the other night when we were babysitting after the kids went to sleep. I loved that movie as a kid but wow
Keith Law: Fortunately (?) I’ve never seen that.

Jason: Does Michel Baez have a future as a starter (I don’t mean to take any thunder from your prospect package)
Keith Law: Nonzero chance.

pakkap: the in-division hiccup is a problem, but assuming arenado is truly pushing his way out of coors after their baffling handling of him, is keibert ruiz/gonsolin/pederson not a totally equitable (even a bit too much given the opt out) package?
Keith Law: Seems like good value, if the Rockies believe Gonsolin fits their environment.

EG: Through listening to Chvrches and Broods (thanks to reading you), I came across Meg Myers. Have you listened to any of her stuff?
Keith Law: Her name seems familiar but as I look on Spotify none of this rings a bell.

Bill: Who in your opinion is the most underrated actor/actress out there? In my view, it’s Toni Collette, who can do just about any accent and is pretty adept at both comedy and drama. She’s been nominated only once for an Oscar.
Keith Law: Just sticking with Knives Out, I’d say Michael Shannon.

John: What do you think of the most recent Vampire Weekend or Bon Iver album?
Keith Law: I hate VW. Bon Iver doesn’t do much for me.

Stuckeyville: Re the Carcassone app, are the expansions worth it? Thanks
Keith Law: Some are. Traders/Builders and Inns/Cathedrals are my favorite in the physical game.

Dave: Would you buy a baseball team if you had the money to do so?
Keith Law: Sure, they’re great investments. But I’d hire baseball ops people and let them do their jobs.

Robert: Re: Vizquel/non-Rolen voters—I feel the same way about Vizquel/non-Andruw Jones voters. I’m not sure Jones is a HOFer…but if Vizquel is, then Jones is way over the line.
Keith Law: This is also true. There’s this weird bit of revisionism over Vizquel that bothers me because of what it says about our society – he was never viewed as an elite player while he played (he got ONE MVP vote in his entire career), and all objective data say he wasn’t close to Hall of Famer caliber. His supporters simply want to ignore the facts and rewrite history to suit their whims. That’s reprehensible.

Riveryanks: Didn’t notice if you put up a review of Lathe of Heaven. Curious on your thoughts.
Keith Law: Not her best.

Dave: Haven’t been to one of your book events previously, but hoping to make the DC one this spring. What’s the vibe? KLawchat live?
Keith Law: I think that’s a better question for folks who’ve been to one, but I do take a lot of questions and try to crack jokes and generally have a good time. No singing, though.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you as always for all of your questions. You can pre-order my next book, The Inside Game, now via Harper Collins’ site or anywhere fine books are sold. I’ll try to keep the chats going the next few weeks but as I get busy writing the prospect rankings I might have to skip a week here or there. Enjoy your weekends!