Starting at 1 pm ET. My latest mock draft is now up for The Athletic subscribers. My second book, The Inside Game, is out now in hardcover and would make a great Father’s Day gift!

Keith Law: Sorry, brief delay here as I have a radio hit I didn’t have written on my calendar. Feel free to leave questions and I’ll get to them as soon as I get back.
Keith Law: It’s a helping hand that makes you feel wonderfully bland. Klawchat.

Brad: How would compare Jordan Westburg to Logan Davidson, they’re both big SS with some questions about their hit tool?
Keith Law: Pretty different guys – I think Davidson is the better shortstop, better pure athlete, both guys with real questions about the bat though.

Andrew: What grade would you put on Austin Martin’s power and speed tools?
Keith Law: He’s a 55 runner, maybe 60 underway. I think he gets to 60 power in time given how hard he hits the ball.

UK Nick: Klaw, love your stuff and thanks so much for bringing the chats back… they fill a need at the moment. Have you ever read any of Bill Bryson’s books? Thoughts?
Keith Law: I haven’t, not for any particular reason though.

Raymond: Is there any chance that Lacy is available to the Jays at 5? Thinking maybe if the O’s take Gonzalez below slot, the Marlins take Martin or Veen and the Royals take whoever the Marlins don’t?
Keith Law: No.

Ben: I was planning on buying The Inside Game for my dad as a father’s day gift as a sort of low-stakes intro to bigger conversations about opening your mind and evidence-based thinking. Then, the last week happened, and we went from low-stakes intro conversations to high-stakes advanced conversations. He’ll still get that gift though, and I could still see the Inside Game as a helpful, low-stakes way to talk about bigger issues. Thanks for your stellar work on the book!
Keith Law: You’re welcome – thank you for buying it. I wish the stakes were lower than they are now.

Mike: Do you think the Red Sox are also in on the prep pitchers or do you think their focusing on prep position players only?
Keith Law: Zero chance they take a HS arm in the first round.

John: Where does Austin Martin fit best long-term defensively? Second?
Keith Law: I still think third base, assuming his throwing issue this February is resolved.

Geoff: How much money would owners really save by playing 50 games at a prorated salary as opposed to 82? What is really the point of this proposal other than not giving the union something close to what it wants?
Keith Law: I don’t know exactly how their TV/streaming revenue formula works, but I’d be shocked if they actually were better off financially with fewer games.
Keith Law: As in, I think the owners are lying.

Alan: Morning. Curious about Crochet not being present in your first round mock. Is the lack of track record causing the slide?
Keith Law: He only pitched once this spring, throwing an unannounced relief appearance on the final weekend that I was told only six scouts saw. He also got lit up by RHB last year. If he’s just a reliever, which is a real probability, then he’s not a first rounder.
Keith Law: Oh, also, he missed the first three weekends of the year for undisclosed reasons.

Guest: what is your take on top HS. players like Crews announcing that they are skipping the draft? What is the advantage to that rather than staying in and just turning down a deal if he doesn’t like it. Is there any benefit of just pulling your name from it?
Keith Law: No, not really. I find it a bit showy.

Dave: What’s your favourite foreign film (excluding well known ones, such as Parasite or Life is Beautiful)?
Keith Law: Amelie.
Keith Law: Burning is up there too.

Eric: I’m just so sad. I have upped my donations to senate and congressional candidates across the country, but even if we get trump and the gop out of power, it will not even come close to fixing the systemic issues of racism and oppression throughout the country. We all need to be better. Every single day.
Keith Law: I agree, especially that simply voting in better leaders will not solve systemic problems with roots that are 200+ years deep.

Ben: Klaw, thanks as always.  Haven’t really kept up to date with draft talk, just this week started reading some things you’ve put out, mock-wise, to familiarize myself.  Just curious, how do you think the abbreviated draft will affect team’s approach this year? Would it be silly to get away from best talent available over system needs?
Keith Law: Always BPA. Never draft for need. Now this year some teams may choose to be more conservative and rank college  talent over HS, or hitting over pitching, which is understandable given the state of the game and the economy, but I still wouldn’t draft for need.

Noah: Do you think we are tracking for next year will be more “normal” like full minor league season with fans? Or could this extend? It seems like other leagues are figuring it out so would we be able to progress that far by next February/March?
Keith Law: I don’t think there will be fans at games until there’s a vaccine. It simply won’t be safe to gather that many people with that kind of proximity.

Paul: No question here. Just hope we are all managing our anxiety levels in this escalating 2020.
Keith Law: Amen.

Chris: Hey Keith, in your latest mock, you had Boston taking a high-upside, higher risk HS player, whereas you previously had them taking maybe a lower-risk “safer” college arm that could end up in the bullpen. With a farm system as barren as theirs, shouldn’t they try to target a lot of these high-upside lottery tickets rather than going a safe route on players? Or do you think an organization can rebuild their farm by drafting safer college kids?
Keith Law: No, I don’t think rolling the dice on high-risk players is necessarily the right way to rebuild a system, because you could also easily end up with a lot of nothing. I prefer the mixed approach, like managing a portfolio, which also means you’ll get some players who move more quickly to the high minors and some who take more time.

Jamal: This years pitching, college in particular, seems much deeper than in the recent past. How would you compare this class to others?
Keith Law: I think it’s the best college draft class since 2011.

Jeremy: Thank you for the chat. In your first mock you had Canadian David Calabrese in the first. Where do you think he goes now.
Keith Law: I did not have him going in the first in any of my mocks so far.
Keith Law: He could go in the comp round A or early second.

Guest: You mentioned a clear Top 3 in your latest Mock draft.  If anyone is going to bump Torkelson, Martin or Lacy out of the top 3, who would it be?
Keith Law: I’ve heard Kjerstad more than Gonzales.

agirlhasnoname: The DJIA is within 10% of all-time highs, despite most companies having terrible revenues for a quarter or three or ten. Isn’t that a blueprint to show owners their valuations will remain high even with sustaining a total loss this year? Also, wouldn’t any financial institution rush to loan them money at near zero interest to cover outlays? Tired of owners crying poor and people eating it up with a spoon.
Keith Law: I find it absolutely unfathomable that MLB owners would be unable to borrow money to cover payrolls for scouts or minor leaguers. All the league has to do is play games and they bring in a ton of their revenues from broadcasting. Sports has generally been one of the most recession-proof industries there is. If you think MLB teams aren’t good credit risks, you think the world is headed for some sort of epic economic collapse.

Ryan: Why do we expect more from the New York Times?!? This is a publication that – and this is actually true – ran an excerpt of Mein Kampf in New York Times Magazine on June 22, 1941. This is in their archive.
Keith Law: I mean, it’s been 79 years. I would think they might have learned a thing or two.

Kyle: I enjoy the podcast but I have to ask, are those ads picked by The Athletic? There’s some interesting stuff being promoted that I can’t imagine you really endorse.
Keith Law: Yes, I don’t pick the ads. I have never used any of the products advertised on my show.

Guest: Royals likely to have a choice of Lacy, Veen, and Gonzalez. How would you rank them, and do you have a strong preference or is this a can’t go wrong with any of them situation?
Keith Law: Not sure Lacy is really getting to them. No way I take Gonzales over Veen, though, and it sounds like the Royals agree.

John: To what extent does a high school aged player need to go through Perfect Game, Five Tool etc.?  And if they do, at what age should they start?
Keith Law: Nobody needs to do that.

Chris: Any rumors on which prep players are looking for overslot deals, and how much they may be looking for?
Keith Law: I have heard some rumors, but would not repeat them here. It puts their collegiate eligibility at risk.

Robert: Manfred wouldn’t be dumb enough to actually mandate a 50 game season, right? Everyone must see through that.
Keith Law: I don’t think he can mandate one. It has to be negotiated.

Mark: Do you see any scenario where a team in the top 10 takes Crochet on a heavy underslot deal? Betting on the high ceiling and saving slot. Albeit giving up considerable safety/floor.
Keith Law: No. That would be very foolish.

Keith too: Keith, do you have a top 50, 100, 200 or anything for the draft available?
Keith Law: Tomorrow.

JO: Hey Klaw, As for just the bat, how does Torkelson compare to Andrew Vaughn?  I assume you have seen both in person. Does one seem to have more power than the other? Same for hit tool, approach and and barrel awareness. Or would you call them a push on hitting?  Thanks
Keith Law: Vaughn much better hitter. Torkelson has more power and could possibly play LF.

Don: Is there any benefit to post-TJ guys like Rodon and Kopech  just missing this entire 50 game season for more recovery?
Keith Law: I don’t think we can know that definitively, but there’s at least a belief based on some anecdotal evidence that guys taking a year off from pitching may be better off – post-TJ guys but also guys dealing with minor arm issues that didn’t require surgery.

Joe: Do you know what high school players have been connected to the Braves in the draft?
Keith Law: I listed at least one in the mock yesterday.

Marco: Do you think Reid Detmers has a chance to add velo to the FASTBALL and eventually  become a #2 SP?
Keith Law: No.

Josh: Based on your interactions with front office personnel, what is the general feeling about the number of undrafted free agents teams will pursue this year?  Are teams going to be selective and only bring in a few, or try and cast a wide net to make up for the later rounds being nixed?  I would think it is a small pool of players to begin with, just curious as to the approach.  Thanks!
Keith Law: Not very many. Who’s signing for $20K? College seniors and maybe a few older juniors?

John: Sad how many people think the flag only stands for the military, not things like equality or freedom.  Any books you would recommend to better understand systemic racism?
Keith Law: Others have posted better and more comprehensive lists … the two that come to mind that I’ve actually read are So You Want to Talk About Race and The Warmth of Other Suns. The former addresses systemic racism head-on; the latter explains its roots through three major stories from the Great Migration.

Garrett Crochet: No way I get past 22. I’m the Natsiest first round pick possibile.
Keith Law: No, there are Natsier picks available.

Chris: Are the rumors true that McMahon is falling because his fastball plays more like a sinker and analytical teams are out on him?
Keith Law: No. He’s not “falling.” I’m not sure where that even comes from.

Zzz: Any chance the White Sox could underslot Ed Howard at 11 and use those savings to get value with later picks?
Keith Law: I suppose there’s a chance but it’s not very likely.

Thomas: I’ve seen Michigan RHP Criswell as a top 100 draft prospect on some lists. Was curious if this is consistent with your board / if you had any thoughts on him.
Keith Law: He’ll be on my top 100. Too much reliever risk to be a top 50 guy.

Ridley: Who could possibly have guessed that a man who urged his supporters to rough up dissenters, asked police to not be too gentle with suspects, and who wanted to execute people who had been exonerated of crimes would turn out to be so enthusiastic about using force to put down protests? I guess there was no way to see it coming.
Keith Law: None whatsoever.

Jeb: What’s the argument against Bitsko in the first round? Cold weather, short history? Is signability an issue? I understand why he might not be a top-10 pick, but it seems like he’d be a pretty good gamble later in the first round based of stuff and age, at a minimum?
Keith Law: Didn’t pitch this spring and was barely scouted last year because he was still a 2021 guy until the fall.

addoeh: What do you make of some conservatives who only now, because of recent events, abandon the President?  If you had a friend who fell in this category, do you welcome them back to reality or ask what took them so long?  Initially, I think I’d do the former, since defeating him in Nov. is so important, but in the time I’ll ask the latter.
Keith Law: Exactly. For now, be glad they’ve come back to reality. Later you can excoriate them.

Ed: If Veen is gone how likely do you think Bitsko is to the Padres at 8 as under slot so they can spend on their next two picks?
Keith Law: No chance.
Keith Law: I don’t think the Padres are taking Veen anyway, and I see no chance they go HS arm at 8.

Robert: Are you disappointed with Trout’s lack of a response to ownership or current world affairs? I know he isn’t a public guy but we could really use his influence.
Keith Law: I … uh … what?

Jake: Are the owners doing us a favor by negotiating in bad faith? There’s no good reason for baseball to come back in the middle of a worsening pandemic and world-wide protests against police brutality, is there?
Keith Law: Money is the reason.

Todd Boss: Why is Justin Foscue suddenly getting 1st round mock draft buzz?  I don’t get it; a 6-foot guy who’s defensively challenged and might get pushed to an OF corner who doesn’t project for power?  What am I missing?
Keith Law: He wasn’t on my mock. He might go in the 20s but I tend to doubt it … I think Westburg would go first if any MSU kid goes in the first round.

Michael Conforto: How worried are you about a big COVID case spike from all the protests?
Keith Law: I worry about case spikes from states reopening too quickly. This is just the icing on the COVID-19 cake.

Josh L: Thoughts on NYT actually running the horrific Tom Cotton piece?
Keith Law: Reprehensible. Calling on the US military to attack our own citizens? What in the actual fuck? Plus that does absolutely nothing to address our national culture of white supremacy or police brutality or systemic racism – it just enforces them further.
Keith Law: We don’t need more militarized responses – we need to demilitarize the police.

Jason: How did the player remove himself from the draft? I remember that Brandon McElwain enrolled at South Carolina to play football, which meant he was no longer eligible, but this is different
Keith Law: There’s a newish process where you can request removal by writing to the Commissioner’s Office.

JO: Even though Emerson Hancock is dropping a few spots in many mock drafts, doesn’t he have the pitches to possibly turn out to be the best player picked in the 2020 draft? Is the reason for the drop due to poor performance in his first start more than anything else? Which would be SSS.
Keith Law: No, I don’t think he has the pitches to do that … his breaking stuff isn’t there.
Keith Law: He’s good, though.

Steve.: You talked about counting calories being the scientific way to weight loss and called keto a fad diet. Isn’t keto just a different scientific approach?
Keith Law: No. It’s more pseudoscientific than scientific. It’s also extremely hard to maintain over the long term, which makes it more of a fad diet than the kind of serious lifestyle change that leads to sustainable results.

Taylor: Do you find all of the social media support to be a bit hollow?  I agree with all of the many statements from any person/company/business/team with a twitter/instagram/facebook account, but isn’t it a little bit of grandstanding to have everyone come out with a statement?  I would prefer to hear what they are going to do versus just a blanket two paragraph statement.
Keith Law: Lego did it right. $4 million donation, pulled all advertising for police-related toys.

Chris: Is blaze Jordan going to be drafted high enough to sign or will he end up in college?
Keith Law: I think someone takes him high enough for him to sign, but he’s not really that good. It’s a bet on raw power he can’t get to with his current swing. Add him to the list of kids who were massively overhyped when they were 13 and didn’t turn out to be anything close to what they were supposed to be.

Geoff: I wish people would realize voting is step 1. It’s the minimum. It’s vital, so everyone should do it, but the ballot box isn’t a one-stop shop for solutions to centuries old systemic problems.
Keith Law: Yes, and no. Because the Republican Party has worked through legal and extralegal means to make it harder for POC to vote in this country, securing and restoring voting rights is step 1. Voting is then step 2.

Evan: If we assume Reid Detmers does not make any substantial improvement with his skill set (e.g. velo, repertoire quality, current level of ctl/cmd, etc. do not increase), what role does he currently project towards in the MLB? If he were to improve in any one area, which do you think is most likely and to what magnitude does that change his outlook?
Keith Law: That’s the kind of question I’ll answer in the top 100 tomorrow.

Don: How does Max Meyer compare to Carson Fulmer?
Keith Law: Not even remotely similar. Fulmer had a max-effort delivery with 40 command. Meyer has a good delivery, far more athleticism, and better command now projecting to above-average.

Luke: What are your thoughts on Robert Puason? Getting much less hype than Jasson. Who would you rather have long term?
Keith Law: Dominguez is the clearly better prospect of the two.

Craig: Putting aside the merits of the protests (and they are very clearly meritorious), why is it safe “to gather that many people with that kind of proximity” right now?  Why aren’t public health officials urging protesters to quarantine with other protesters?  If gathering in large groups is a public health risk, why aren’t public health officials noting that fact (while supporting the aims/goals of the protest) and urging countermeasures (self-quaranting, testing, telling immunocompromised people to support the protest in other ways, etc.)?
Keith Law: It’s not safe. However, freedom of assembly is one of our First Amendment rights. Freedom to go to a baseball game is not.

Johnny: As a clarification, do you view your mock draft as a prediction of what might happen or a ranking of what “should” happen with the best player available mindset?

If it’s a projection, who is the BPA for the M’s at 6? I want something to wistfully look back on when they go a wildly different direction
Keith Law: It’s a prediction. My opinion on players is not a factor.

Howey: I really appreciate the pieces published by The Athletic regarding the black experience in America, and the very active policing of “stick to sports” or “I got called a cracker once” comments below (If I don’t have to look at another one of Wil C.’s comments again I will be perfectly happy). Don’t know why this chat feels like the place to mention it, but I hope the higher-ups know it’s appreciated.
Keith Law: Well, I know the higher-ups read, so they’ll see this.

JB: Do you think Foscue is a 2B only?
Keith Law: Yes. Below average arm limits him.

Zachary: Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska: “When I saw General Mattis’ comments yesterday I felt like perhaps we are getting to a point where we can be more honest with the concerns that we might hold internally and have the courage of our own convictions to speak up.” Yes, a sitting Senator says she might be getting to a point where she can have the courage of her own convictions to speak up. Perhaps.
Keith Law: She has, like, five constituents. Is she just that afraid of pissing one of them off?

Eric: FYI: the flag is … a piece of cloth
Keith Law: That has been my opinion for a very long time. The idea of “respecting” a piece of fabric does not resonate with me. You may respect the country, or not. You may respect its institutions or its leaders, or not. Respecting an object of inorganic, inanimate material? No. Stand, sit, kneel, ignore as you wish. It’s just cloth.

Paul: Sorry – my question was cut off. What is your recommendation for ordinary people with limited financial means that want to donate with as much influence as possible. I’m assuming down ballot congressional races, buying from locally and minority owned businesses and donating to charities like Actblue. What else would you suggest?
Keith Law: My general rule for donating is to focus on local nonprofits with small, achievable goals that can be verified. “End world hunger!” sounds nice, but it’s never happening. “Feed five families in Wilmington” is doable. I give regularly to my local food pantry. I have given this week to the Ida B. Wells Society and to the Philadelphia Bail Fund, both of which get money directly to people who need it. Those are charities that work. I suppose if you’re a billionaire you can throw your (dark) money around in different ways, but for folks like us, stay small and local.

Kretin: I’ve read a lot about Meyer being slightly shorter than a pitcher should be. Is this a big concern for teams over his stuff and results?
Keith Law: He’s not, and it’s only a slight issue. I think if he were 6’3″ we’d talk about him at 1-1.

addoeh: Do you think a team with real WS expectations might take a few relievers that are ready now to increase their odds this year?  I’m thinking especially after the first round.
Keith Law: Yes.

Jason: How confident are you that Nick Gonzales will become an above-average regular (relative to your confidence for any draft prospects)? His lower EV’s scare me a bit.
Keith Law: I am not.

Kevin: Do you think front offices keep close tabs on what you (and people similar to you) are saying in chats like these or are they too busy focusing on their own info?
Keith Law: I know they read because sometimes they text me about them, although it’s more likely to be about a board game or a book or something.

Dave: The vibe on the west coast is that nobody is much excited about Biden, but will of course vote for him to get rid of Trump. What is the vibe in his home state of Delaware?
Keith Law: Most folks here revere the Bidens, and his visit to a black church this week was extremely well received.

Mr. Met: I’ve seen the Mets all over the place in mocks. Are they just in BPA mode without regard to position or college/hs?
Keith Law: That’s not true. I can’t and won’t speak to other mocks, but I think they go HS bat or college arm.

Long Island Is Racist: If you had told me in 2016 that under President Donald Trump we would be facing a recession, a horribly mishandled pandemic and “race riots” I would have absolutely believed you.
Keith Law: Long Island is racist, BTW. They kept voting in Peter King.
Keith Law: Not that one – the racist one.

Big Meat Pete: Did you see Pete Alonso’s posts on Instagram supporting Black Lives Matter? Strongly recommend looking for them. I was pleasantly surprised to see him take a stand.
Keith Law: I did, and yes, he did very well with those posts. Easy for someone in his position to say or do nothing.

Brad: Does Tom Ricketts truly think we are dumb? Saying 70% of their revenue is from the gate and crying poor.
Keith Law: He does think you’re dumb. You’ve seen members of mainstream media outlets repeat Trump’s lies without questioning or fact-checking them. I’m sure Tommy Boy thinks he can get away with the same.

Mary Jo: In a recent column on The Athletic, you showed why picking HS arms in the first round doesn’t frequently pay off. In a class full of good college talent, how many HS pitchers do you have in your top 20?
Keith Law: Rankings? I think 1.

Guest: You see that Trump may have committed voter fraud himself with his registration?
Keith Law: Yeah, I did, and it won’t go anywhere.

Guest: My understanding (as a Chemist), was that Keto is science-based.  In the era of science deniers that that you and I feel so strongly about, I’d appreciate if you cited your sources rather than just call something pseudo-science or fad without further evidence.  I am not doubting you, I’m just curious to see your side of the argument.
Keith Law: This is a chat. I’m not stopping everything to go link to multiple sources to back something up here as I would if I were writing a column or a book.

Mike: Any thoughts behind the mindset of police responding to protests about abuse with so much abuse?  And why hasn’t the MSM focused on it more?
Keith Law: It is far easier to write about violence than about peaceful protests.

Matt: I’m still trying to figure out why the National Anthem is played prior to sporting events in the first place.
Keith Law: If I were Commissioner, there would be no anthems and absolutely no GBA. You want a national pep rally? Fine. Go hold one on Main Street with 76 trombones. This is a sporting event, with fans and players from all over the world and from different faiths.

BVW: Are prep players MORE likely to skip this draft and head to college, since bonuses will be paid out gradually and the minor-league picture is hazy, or LESS likely, given that in college, they would suddenly be competing for playing time against nearly four full classes of upperclassmen?
Keith Law: More likely – but they may go to two-year colleges rather than four-year ones.

JeffinNZ: Colin Kaepernick insisted repeatedly in 2016 that he wouldn’t vote and others shouldn’t because he viewed Trump and Clinton as similarly racist. Leaving aside how ridiculous that is (is any American as racist as Trump?) and how that difference has been borne out, thoughts on what adults can do to get through to those with this mentality?
Keith Law: I don’t think you can get through to people who’ve decided that.

Gerald: Did you appreciate the comments of President Bush?  Many will discount everything he says because of things that happened while in office, but I do think he is generally a very good man that does love all people.
Keith Law: I appreciated his comments. I wish he’d acted on such sentiments when he had the power to do something. But I will take his comments now rather than silence.

Ben: … “the scale of losses across the league is biblical.”  If I had snorted into my coffee any harder, I may have drowned.
Keith Law: (whispers) They think we’re all stupid.

Hi: If Detmers isn’t available at  pick #11, who do the White Sox pivot to?
Keith Law: If he’s not there someone else from the top ten is there (by definition) so they might end up with Kjerstad or Cavalli.

Dean: Keith, when working for Toronto were you privy to their books or was that only shared with people in the finance department and top executives? Do you think the financial statements leaked from the Marlins several years ago were a complete picture?
Keith Law: I saw the books, yes. That’s why I’ve said for 14 years now that teams play with transfer pricing and pay themselves a pittance for broadcast rights, so the TV/radio entities take all the profits and the team itself appears to be losing money or making very little.

Tom: We obviously have to get out and vote, but when my choices in November are either a 70+ year old who can’t speak in complete or coherent sentences and has been accused of sexual assault, or a 70+ year old who can’t speak in complete or coherent sentences and has been accused of sexual assault, forgive me for not feeling real confident in how things will shape up for a while.
Keith Law: False equivalence.

Rick: If you were a ballplayer, would you want Scott Boras as your agent?
Keith Law: Yes. Why not?

Trevor: Do you think any goodwill is being earned by the teams/owners that are continuing to pay all staff and, especially, all minor leaguers?  Will there be any negative blowback from agents, or will they still always direct their clients to the highest dollar offer?
Keith Law: I think the goodwill is on the PR side. Maybe it means a few players re-up if the money is equal but I do not think any player or agent will turn down more money to stay with a team that paid them $400/week.

Dave: Over/Under 25% chance Cubs take a HS Pitcher in the 1st?
Keith Law: I’d say zero chance there.

JO: Speaking of Cavalli. Isn’t he going to be a reliever all the way given is command issues? Do you really think he can or should go in the first round? If so Isn’t it a gamble that his command will straighten up?
Keith Law: No, I do not see that at all with him. I think you overstate his command issues and underestimate the potential for an athlete like Cavalli, who was still hitting part-time last year, to improve in pro ball.

Andy: Baseball especially shouldn’t play the National Anthem, since a significant minority of the players aren’t from the US. I wonder how the Carlos Delgado situation would go now.
Keith Law: I wish more players would take a knee in baseball … it might put an end to any controversy around that practice.
Keith Law: (Non-troversy, really.)

David: Keith, looking forward to tomorrow’s list. Does Pete Crow-Armstrong project to develop enough power to make him an impact player? From what I’ve read, it seems that’s the element he’s missing from his game.
Keith Law: He could be an impact player between his glove and his bat, but I don’t think he ends up with plus power.

addoeh: Tom Cotton during 2015 Jade Helm – We can’t have the military attack citizens.

Tom Cotton today – Actually, that sounds like a good idea…
Keith Law: The capacity of the American right to ignore and contradict their own previous statements is bottomless.

Eric: My wife had to drive to Phoenix and back to LA and she surprised me with Pizzeria Bianco (which I never had before). She’s definitely a hall of famer
Keith Law: Agreed.

Mike: What do you think Mick Abel and Nick Bitsko’s floors are? Any chance either falls out of the top 20?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t be surprised if Bitsko fell to the comp round and was paid first-round money there. It’s a good outcome for him and would mean some team takes him with their second pick, mitigating their risk by presumably taking a bat or college arm with their first pick.

Aaron: Would the Braves go after a prep player who signs at slot in the 1st round if Pete Crow or Kelley are there? Or are they most definitely signing someone under slot with the 25th overall pick?
Keith Law: I never said anything about them going under slot at 25. That’s a fabrication. I don’t think PCA gets to their pick.

Ted: Thanks for the chat.   Since there are rumors that there may not be any milb this season, Any idea on where the newly drafted players will report once they’ve signed?
Keith Law: They may not, not for a little while. I suppose teams would eventually want players to come to their spring training facilities for an introduction of sorts, but there is no place for the kids to play now.

Nolan: How can people not see that the keto diet is a fad? The same diet emerges every ten years or so under a different name.
Keith Law: I remember having an argument with a co-worker on the Atkins diet when I was with Toronto … I said the same thing, it’s a fad diet, and not sustainable, and probably not very good for your body long-term.
Keith Law: Any “yo-yo” diets lead to rapid weight-loss fluctuations, and that is linked with higher risk of mortality.

Mike: Do you support the abolition of a policed state? I’ve been hearing that a lot lately, and am trying to picture what it would look like.
Keith Law: I don’t know exactly what that entails either, but I know I suppose demilitarizing the police. How much PPE could states, counties, and cities have bought with what they spent to buy military equipment for police?
Keith Law: And, again, who is harmed the most by overly aggressive, militarized police outfits? Communities of color. Not me, in my nice mostly-white suburb. I could sit here and say and do nothing, and the police would do what we expect police to do on a daily basis – keep us safe, maintain some basic sense of order. That is my privilege. I say something and donate money to relevant causes against my own interests. I do that because if people like me say and do nothing, then nothing will change in our lifetimes.
Keith Law: Thank you all for your questions and for your patience this week. I will be more active with chats next week, including a Q&A on the Athletic site and some sort of video chat the day of the draft itself (details TBD). Stay safe, but not silent.

Starting at noon ET. My latest mock draft is now up for subscribers to the Athletic, and my latest board game review, of Azul: Summer Pavilions, is now up at Paste. Don’t forget to check out my new book, The Inside Game, now out in hardcover!

Keith Law: I don’t come here for the exclusivity; I just come here for the view. Klawchat.

Guest: Every mock seems to connect the White Sox to Patrick Bailey. Is this well known throughout the industry or is everyone putting a round peg in a round hole?
Keith Law: I actually think it’s more the latter this time – he’d be the best college player on the board, they like him, catching is a weakness in the system anyway.

Dave: If an MLB owner is so cash strapped that he can’t pay his minor leaguers $400/week, it’s hard to make the argument that he has enough cash flow to remain an owner…
Keith Law: Right? Look who just furloughed scouts (ahead of the draft, FFS): the Angels, owned by Arte Moreno, net worth about $3 billion; and the A’s, majority owner John Fisher, net worth about $2 billion. Paying scouts an average of $40,000 for the half-year they might miss while furloughed would cost no more than $1 million; if these teams furloughed every employee making under $100K, we’d still be looking at under $10 million, total. That’s a rounding error to these owners. I don’t think any liberal Democrat could make a better argument for a wealth tax on billionaires than watching these owners squeeze blood from stones to protect the tenth digit in their personal fortunes.

Steve: As a hitter, how does Zac Veen compare to Riley Greene?
Keith Law: He doesn’t. Greene was far more bat-first, Veen is more all-around athlete with a very different swing.

Paul: To Scherzer’s point about owner’s opening up their books – he’s right isn’t he? No one really knows how much teams are making despite all the numbers we see floating around out there.
Keith Law: He’s absolutely right. And owners will *never* open their books short of a court order.

Mark: Do you use tomato paste when making tomato sauce? Is there an advantage to this?I have found that when adding this ingredient , it is a bit overpowering, although I recently read that paste needs to be caramelized at the beginning.Curious as to your thoughts.
Keith Law: Never. That’s not necessary for any Italian tomato-based sauce I know. It is useful in many other dishes, though.

Mike: Keith, thanks for being a voice of sanity in an era where science is under attack and facts can be disregarded by literally tens of millions of “adults.” Did you happen to read Doug Glanville’s piece on your former employer’s site today? If so, I’m interested in your take.
Keith Law: I have not, sorry.

Darren: Hi Keith. Who is your guilty pleasure band or artist? The one that doesn’t have meaningful articulate lyrics or impressive instrumentals, just something in the music that hits you in the feels.
Keith Law: It’s more a genre – ’80s music, whether it’s earlier new wave or later hair metal, hits me right in the nostalgia.

Jon: Keith, a friend of mine who is undergoing chemo for cancer did yoga in the park with forty people, no masks, in North Carolina this weekend. Are we just asking for a second round sooner than later?
Keith Law: Yes. It’s inevitable – but it won’t always happen the same way, and some areas will get lucky and avoid a second surge, which will lead more truthers to say the lockdowns didn’t help.

Trey: Moving to Philly area for work soon (the job is based in center city philly), and wondering your take on buying a house in NJ, PA, or DE? Any recommendations? I only know the NJ suburb area (haddonfield). Married w/ 18 month toddler. Thanks!
Keith Law: Delaware offers by far the lowest cost of living, especially in taxes (no sales tax, much lower property taxes esp. than NJ), but our public schools here don’t measure up to those even right over the state line in Garnet Valley, PA. I do think Delaware is a great place to live, but many parents here choose charter or private schools because of the lower funding for public education.

Darren: Hi Keith. We are trying to debate when is the right time to have parents over for dinner and a hug. Older people clearly having more risk, but if both parties have been home with the exception of food shopping, are we near the time we can have dinner? Ignoring the Wisconsin bar patrons and Southern beach goers, of those trying to stay safe, are you ready to go see a family member for dinner without masks and a big hug? Thanks for all you do. stay safe.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t just yet – my parents and my partner’s parents are all old enough to be high-risk, and I think the virus itself is too prevalent in our county here for me to safely assume I’m not going to carry it.

Ben: When Smart Baseball came out I was working for a state court judge. I lent him a copy and he subsequently lent it to about 50% of the judges on the bench in our district (he lent it to so many judges that he lost track of where it was and I never got it back). I don’t work for him any more, but I gifted him a copy of the Inside Game and he plans to send it around the bench again. Just thought you should know of your outsized influence on the judicial branch of Minnesota.
Keith Law: Thank you. I suppose no sleazy ADA will be able to convict anyone on the basis of RBIs in Minnesota now.

Mark W: Hey Keith, given that the public is regularly informed about specific players salaries, wouldn’t it be fair for the print media to prinkle in owners’ salaries?
Keith Law: It’s not their salaries that matter but their actual profitability – and I don’t mean on an income statement that can be manipulated with transfer pricing or other accounting tomfoolery. Show me the cash flow and we can talk.

Ed Howard’s shoulder: Am i a concern or have my medical been shared?
Keith Law: Howard had a shoulder issue last summer, but obviously didn’t play this spring so we don’t really know if he’s still affected. I won’t share medical info on players even if I have it, unless MLB itself has made such information public. e

Deke: What’s the “social media executive order” gonna look like?
Keith Law: Don’t talk bad words about the Dear Leader?

Greg: Are there still worries over Hancock’s medicals that could cause him to fall beyond the top 4-5 picks? I’d read somewhere that he was supposed to be providing info to teams, but doesn’t that seem like a scary idea (giving teams medical info that could hurt your draft stock)?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard those worries at all, and also you’re more or less required to provide those medicals now. If you don’t submit to the MLB MRI program, for one example, the team that drafts you can simply walk away after your physical without even having to offer you the 40% minimum. The Rays did that two years ago with Drew Rasmussen when his post-draft physical revealed that he needed a second Tommy John (which I’m sure had nothing to do with Pat Casey running him out there for long starts just 12-13 months off the first operation).

Benchy: Ever think MLB and MLPA will agree to trading draft picks? Think this could inject some life into a mostly dull television event?
Keith Law: Yes, but we need an impetus of some sort – neither side has a strong incentive to push for it.

John: Have you broken quarantine?
Keith Law: We aren’t quarantined in Delaware – we’ve been asked to stay home and self-isolate except for essential tasks like getting food or medications. I haven’t left the house for any destination without a mask, and I haven’t gone anywhere I wasn’t supposed to go. I do think we have had a few too many stores open, and we’re reopening too soon, but I’ve obeyed the Governor’s orders.

Canada: Naive Canadian here. Trump “seems” like an immoral, unethical choice. It seems common sense not to vote for him but that was proved wrong in 2016. Do you think a lot of the supporters are people who turned a blind eye to his personality traits, unethical standards and arrogance for the sake of “economic” promise?
Keith Law: Or for the sake of conservative judges who might help end reproductive rights in this country. I think that remains a major, maybe the major, issue driving single-issue voters.

Tom: I see why you’ve done so, but Doesn’t completely disassociating with Trump supporters only widen the gap in our country? My strategy is to find any kind of common ground with them, even if we disagree on most issues
Keith Law: Hannah Gadsby’s rant on anti-vaxxers in Douglas also captures my feelings on nearly anyone who’d still vote for Trump this year: You can’t change a closed mind.

Mark: Toronto has around $8M in slot between their first two picks combined (pick 5 and 42), given the uncertainty of this year’s draft, do you see a scenario where it would make sense to try and get two top 20 ranked players at $4M each (pushing someone down the draft to pick 42), versus one player at $6.2M and one at $1.8M? Basically spreading out the risk with two higher end players. Or is the top end of the draft no doubt enough that the smart thing is take the best available at 5 and then see who you get at 42? I guess the downside would be the risk on missing out on the player you try and push down to pick 42. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Because the top of the draft is so strong, I think this might result in them getting less total talent. Now, they might go to the three college arms who’ll probably be there (Meyer, Detmers, Hancock) and say “whoever is first to take $5 million is our pick.” Then you still have plenty of room to go way over at 42, where there will still be some pretty damn good HS players available, and can even push past the $3 million I’ve allotted in this scenario by going under slot later.

Kevin: If the Orioles decide to try to save $ at the second pick and pass on Martin and Lacy, who are the best/most likely targets for them to do so?
Keith Law: I mentioned that one name in the mock today. He’s probably the best position player option in that scenario.

Guest: Where would Baek Ho Kang (KBO KTW)  rank as an MLB prospect? He is the best hitter in KBO at 20….A 20 yo destroying high AAA players Isn’t paralleled anywhere on the globe. Right? ….call me crazy, but he is a top 10 MLB prospect to me.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t call you crazy, but you are mistaken. KBO is not equivalent to “high AAA.”

Chris: Damn Enter Key… Request for any further mocks: please, please link in the overview to your top draft prospect write-up. Would make reading up on these guys easier.
Keith Law: My updated ranking is not posted yet.

Kevin: Can you recommend any dishes for which dried beans are especially well suited? I panic-snagged a bunch (red, cannellini, black) at the grocery store this week and I’m a bit stumped.
Keith Law: I’ve made the Ottolenghi gigli with chickpeas recipe that you could make with dried beans you’ve soaked and cooked beforehand. The NY Times is obsessed with beans right now – they did a cheesy white bean-tomato bake that is very easy and delicious, especially with some crusty bread or over rice. Just soak the dried beans overnight, then cook about two hours on a strong simmer (or try the instant pot!) before using.

P.K.: Father’s Day gift ideas for myself to make me a better griller/cooker/kitchen user?
Keith Law: My gift guide for cooks from last December might help – but I think cooking skill is less about tools and more about knowledge. For example, I think I learned more about cooking from watching Good Eats and reading Ruhlman’s Twenty than any other single sources.

Rich: What is your opinion on remote learning and if it were to continue for another year (or 1/2 year) starting in the fall?  How much are our children being impacted in the long run?
Keith Law: It’s killing group-based projects and harming kids’ social development (I think … certainly not an expert here). But it seems like it might still be necessary in the fall.

Jim: Since you are a fan of 80’s music, wondering if you were a Queensrÿche fan? Not really metal but seems up your alley (and the messages hold up even today).
Keith Law: That is metal to me, at least, or to my teenaged self.

Eric: So Delaware has low taxes and a poor public education system? Weird.
Keith Law: Yes, that was my point. We underfund our schools. (There are a lot of people who think there’s too much waste in school administrations here, which drives voters to vote against budget overrides, but I don’t have nearly enough information to say whether that’s true. Should a school district’s superintendent make over $200K a year? People seem to get outraged at that raw figure, but I don’t think that is in and of itself a reasonable criticism.)

Patrick: With the extra home time, any new recipes or cooking techniques you are experimenting with? Broadening menu horizons with the family?
Keith Law: My partner has been using the Instant Pot a lot and I have been trying to learn it along with her (I used a pressure cooker for years, but this does seem easier if a bit smaller). I did decide a few weeks ago to try to make homemade English muffins for the first time, and now I can’t stop making them.

Clay: How likely is expansion in the next 5 years?
Keith Law: If the economy recovers enough to support it, I think it’s inevitable because owners will want that one-time cash infusion.

Chris: Do you think detmers has a chance to be anything better than a number 4 starting pitcher?
Keith Law: Yes. Could be an above league-average major league starter. I don’t think he could ever be an ace, just because his pure stuff isn’t there, but command like his can take you pretty far.

John: Hi Keith, it seems to mean many liberal politicians are missing an option on student loans.  The power of compounding interest makes those loans very difficult.  Its harder to pay $50k student loan than $50k car loan, can’t we just find a solution to lock interest while still paying the loan value.  It would be less burden on tax payers but also ease some of the burden on borrowers
Keith Law: Is it wrong of me to not feel much concern for borrowers? Student loans are a racket. The ease with which people can borrow for education allows colleges to raise tuition far faster than the rate of inflation, and their nonprofit status somehow lets them do so without scrutiny as long as they spend that money on things like fancy new buildings. Kill student loans and the tuition bubble will pop.

Sad Baseball Fan: On a scale of 1-10, how optimistic are you of a season being played?
Keith Law: Maybe a 6. I tend to think when there’s this much money at stake that the two sides will find a solution.
Keith Law: Nobody has a financial incentive to cancel the season. They’d have to be forced to do so by outside circumstances.

Brian: What would be the biggest real reason for the owners not to let the players look at their books (a pretty fair trade off for anyone who is looking at a drastic pay cut)? Is it because they don’t want the players to how profitable they really are or is there potential chicanery with how certain revenue streams are classified?
Keith Law: Yes.

Darren: So considering your love for the 80s, have you starting showing your daughter John Hughes films? He helped make the 80s so amazing with movies and music. If so did you have an order of which ones first? Our boys have seen Home Alone so far, that’s it of his movies.
Keith Law: No, we’ve been hitting classic movies instead, and calling it an education.

Rom: Do you think Casey Martin’s hit tool can be improved through pro coaching/development? The rest of his skill set suggests that he has first round talent.
Keith Law: He’s not a first round talent. I don’t think he’s going to hit like he’d need to.

Turkey: Any recommendations for ground turkey? Wife and I are over meatballs and meat sauce with pasta.
Keith Law: Ground turkey works great in tacos if you make sure you use enough oil when cooking it and don’t overcook it. It’s too lean to just leave in the pan like you would ground beef/pork. Season it earlier … and that is a recipe for which you use tomato paste.

Moe Mentum: Since you’ve been ranking prospects, which actual 1-1 draft pick was furthest down on your own list?
Keith Law: Pretty sure it’s Moniak.

addoeh: How many owners are going to have to host bake sales, lemonade stands, and car washes this week so the can scrounge up enough money to pay their draft picks?  Or will they just ask the government for a bailout?
Keith Law: Oh you know there will be a bailout. Some sort of “subsidy” to help restart baseball to increase public confidence or whatever.

Tar Heel: I haven’t seen Aaron Sabato as a projected 1st round pick except for you. Was that based on your intel from industry sources and do you think his skills merit a 1st round selection? Thanks.
Keith Law: I don’t have any players listed in this mock who weren’t mentioned to me as first-round candidates by industry sources.

Clay: Thoughts on keto? I’ve got about 60 lbs to lose and would like something that can help.
Keith Law: No fad diets for me. I don’t think they work and they’re not really based on science. It seems like the only real way to lose weight sustainably is to reduce your daily caloric intake and exercise more.

TheSloth: Have you streamed any of the Dinner & A Movie Phish shows?
Keith Law: A couple. We’ve missed the last few, this week because we did a Douglas viewing party. (I thought the first half was amusing, but not really funny, but when she started putting art up on the screen it was hilarious.)

Mason: Dillon Dingler slipping for you a bit?
Keith Law: No.

foolsgold: Why do conservative Americans mistrust science so much?  Who is getting benefit from this?
Keith Law: If you read Jane Mayer’s Dark Money, you’ll get a good sense of who is funding the efforts to undermine our trust in science – and frankly that’s been helped by the centuries-long campaign by several organized religions to do the same. When science says that something in your sacred text is false (e.g., we know that all life on earth evolved from a single common ancestor), you attack the science, obviously.

Tanner Burns: Dear Keith did I say something to offend you and the other prospect writers?  I seem to be falling off of your draft boards but I haven’t played baseball in months.
Keith Law: Falling off? No. If teams don’t seem likely to take a player in the first round, he won’t appear on my mock.

Jennifer: For the next six years, Dante Bichette Jr or Gavin Lux?
Keith Law: I assume you meant Bo Bichette. I think both are stars. I’d probably take Lux though. Better defender.

Hank: If people in Delaware are concerned over a superintendent making $200k a year, they should avoid NYC suburbs, where ours makes double that, and in my opinion, is worth every penny.
Keith Law: My lay opinion is that if the schools are doing what I ask of them, I’m more than fine with paying higher taxes and seeing well-paid administrators.

Jim: Keith, on the English muffins, I especially recommend using sourdough discard.  And do you d oven or griddle?  Rings or free-form?
Keith Law: I don’t have a starter and don’t feel like dealing with one. I griddle them with rings.

Joe: Do you think Gore and/or Patino are already one of the Padres 5/6 best starters? With the Padres recent habits of ignoring service time concerns, if there’s a season we should see them both plenty?
Keith Law: Both should be on whatever taxi squad exists and both should appear if the Padres are doing well in the shortened season and want to boost their playoff chances.

Clay: Do you believe that college athletes could be handled like Olympians? Allow them to seek endorsements that would not change their amateur status, thus avoiding title IX issues but allowing them to get paid while in school.
Keith Law: I think college athletes should be handled like adults who are allowed to make financial decisions for themselves and shop their labor product to different employers.

John: RE student loans: isn’t that the point that the colleges are raising tuition beyond a reasonable rate because they can but the economics still say a college degree is worth it.  Until that dynamic flips it is likely to continue but definitely agree that the loans are a racket
Keith Law: That’s not really clear, though.

Noah: Hey Klaw, Have any thoughts on the popularity of baseball cards. Jasson Dominguez is the hot one out now. Going for $30 to $70 just for a base card. Craziness or will he be worth it? (I already have yours)
Keith Law: Not worth it.

Ridley: Am I wrong to think that Twitter put themselves in this situation by exempting the President from their terms of service? Had they just followed their own rules, his account would have been banned years ago.

Also, have you noticed that he always uses the word “unfair” to describe any attempt to hold him or his accountable?
Keith Law: Yes, you are correct.

nickolai: Our girls are now at the age where we read Harry Potter to them every night (as I know you did with your daughter).  It’s been fantastic overall.  Our younger daughter asked if Voldemort was ‘always bad’  or if he was at some point good then turned bad due to some trauma or experience.  Probably reading into it, but to me the Q behind the Q seems to be whether the ‘goodness’ or ‘badness’ of individuals is innate or developed.  Unsure if this ever came up with you/your girl, but curious how you answered (or would answer) that question.
Keith Law: Never came up here, but I think book 6 gets into that – at least, Rowling tries to tackle it in the case of Tom Riddle.
Keith Law: FWIW, I think she does a pretty good job.

Yoyo: Morning. Almost all mocks have the White Sox on Bailey. Callis noted they are also on all sorts of prep bats/arms which would be a different direction than usual. Does Mike Shirley taking over perhaps change the draft strategy this year?
Keith Law: The draft strategy there has always been set from above. I don’t think that has changed – and if they’re on prep guys I would bet on it happening in rounds 2-3 rather than round 1.

Pat D: On a scale of 1-10 how ironic is it that Trump being mildly fact-checked on social media is the event that makes him suddenly support regulation?  Gotta be close to 100, right?
Keith Law: My ironymeter broke.

Shawn: Hey Keith, Thanks for doing these chats as always. Who do you have the Mets taking at 19 in your latest mock draft & Why
Keith Law: Link is up top.

Clay: Long term, who has the higher ceiling Pache or Waters?
Keith Law: Pache for me. The defensive value gives him a higher ceiling and more potential for longevity.

Brad: Hi Keith – does Tork project to be a truly generational bat in your opinion?
Keith Law: No, but I think he’s good.

Bob: Do you have your personal top 50/100 draft prospects on the Athletic ? Or still trying to gather info for reports ? Thanks
Keith Law: That will go up next week (a top 100).

xxx(yyy): any new recipes make it into your quarantine rotation?
Keith Law: My partner has found a bunch of new ones, largely from the NY Times cooking section. That turmeric chicken one was great. There was a miso-braised chicken thigh dish that was utterly amazing, so good I later cooked chicken thighs the same way just to shred the meat into something else.

Pat D: How soon before we start seeing all the editorials about how greedy the players are, never mind that they’d be taking more risk than just normal baseball injuries if/when they play?  Or do you think they’ll find a compromise before it gets there?
Keith Law: Very soon. I’m surprised it hasn’t started

JT: How did they not fire teargas and beanbags at the armed militias who stormed state legislatures?
Keith Law: The police were told “don’t fire if you see the white of their skin.”

Evan: Cavalli seems to be a player with what might appear to be multiple ML pitches, enough strikes, and a non-frightening injury history. Other than perhaps track record, what’s keeping him out of the top 10 ranked amateurs?
Keith Law: Track record is important. Maybe a full spring makes him a top 10 guy.

John: Do you think a year off could cause a big wash out of older pitchers? Seems like a decent amout of them never make it back after modest lay-offs for minor injuries.
Keith Law: Flip side is that a year off might help some older guys regain a little velocity or recover more fully from injuries than they might have.

Greg: Would Luke Little be one of the more fun midround picks for a team betting on pure upide? Guys that big who throw that hard have to be rare (even if his command will make a big league role unlikely).
Keith Law: I will believe Luke Little throws that hard when I see him do it on a mound, outside, with a hitter in the box.

Chris: Hey Keith.  I idolized Roy Halladay growing up and the recent article about him on ESPN was difficult to read.  While you were in Toronto did you ever see any warning signs from Doc at all?  Thank you.
Keith Law: No, but I made it a point not to spend too much time in the clubhouse – it was the players’ space and after my first year I realized I shouldn’t be intruding. I did talk to Doc once at length, and a few times to say hi, but would not say I really knew him well.

Asif: How do you compare Nick Loftin to Kevin Newman when he was drafted in 2015? It appears that they have similar skill sets.
Keith Law: Similar skill sets for sure although Newman was a much better runner at the time.

Mike: I don’t get what MLB is doing with their minor league players.  Selfishly they should be worried about their development
Keith Law: My one criticism here is that if you’re not paying your minor leaguers they should have the right to become free agents if they wish.
Keith Law: You don’t get indefinite rights to someone’s employment when you’re not paying them. There’s a word for that and it’s not a nice one.

Trey: How to help current student loaners? If Dems take WH and congress, maybe lower rate to 2% (idea floated around)? Any other ideas? it’s a 1.6T issue and having far reaching econ damage.
Keith Law: They could suspend all interest payments for two years as a starting point.

Ryan: When a prospect is a “bust” the tendency is to act like he was destined to fail. Like the team simply picked the wrong guy. Seems to me like we underrate chance and development. Like, if Mark Appel ended up in a different system with different coaches and teammates and strategies, maybe he’d be an OK major leaguer now. Flip it too: there are good players who would’ve busted out in other orgs. Any thoughts on “picked the wrong guy” vs. “didn’t develop him”?
Keith Law: You’re absolutely right – it can be either of those things or just bad luck. Brady Aiken’s elbow was just bad luck. But maybe Chris Sale isn’t the Sale we know if the White Sox don’t take him and help tweak his delivery … or maybe some pitchers who never found that third pitch would have been better if the White Sox had taken them and tried to teach them cutters or different slider grips.

Mike: MLB says they will lose 640k for each game without fans. Would you favor them being allowed to sell 64 seats a game for 10k each?
Keith Law: I don’t believe them, but I think that would be feasible, if local authorities allowed it.

Cole: Would Clayton Beeter crack the top 10 if he had maintained his performance/stuff from the first few weeks into a whole season?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, not with the very high slot and lack of strike-throwing before this year.

Matt: The Fed gave Wall Street $1.5 trillion after a bad week. They can forgive student loans.
Keith Law: Think of how much they could do for consumers, but won’t, because consumers don’t give to campaigns the way banks and big industries do.

Crowded House: Don’t dream it’s over is the best song of the 80’s
Keith Law: No, New Order’s True Faith is.

Mike: I respect so much of what you say on baseball, food and science but think your music views are the worst.  Anyone you follow closely who you disagree with so much on something important to you even if trivial in the big picture?  Don’t say pie v. cake.
Keith Law: It’s okay. Some day you’ll realize I’m right about music too!
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – I have some English muffins to cook. Thank you all for your questions and for reading. Check out the mock draft I linked above, and by the way, my new book The Inside Game is a great Father’s Day gift according to the New York Times, Forbes, Raise, and others too! Stay safe everyone.

Subscribers to The Athletic can see my redraft of the 2010 class as well as my recap of the first-round misses from that year.

The New York Times just named my new book, The Inside Game, one of their six recommended sports reads for this summer. You can buy my book at bookshop.org or wherever fine books are sold.

Keith Law: You were only waiting for this moment to arise. Klawchat.

addoeh: Is there any backstory to how the Cubs drafted Hayden Simpson?
Keith Law: I think this was the most common question on my 2010 redraft. The short version, from my memory, was that their scouting director, Tim Wilken – who, to his credit, has been very open with everyone about how that pick went awry – got rained out on his original plans for a game late that spring, and ended up at Southern Arkansas’ playoff game where Simpson had one of the best outings of his life, up to 95 with command and feel. With nobody they really loved for that pick, Wilken took the player he’d seen pitch so well himself. That’s a process error, of course, especially since they would almost certainly have been able to take Simpson in the second round if they absolutely wanted him.  What we will never know is if Simpson’s velocity spike that spring was just a fluke, or if he’d really gained something that never came back after he caught mono.
Keith Law: That 2010 first round was the worst for me to cover, because I could not for the life of me remember who Simpson was when he was taken, and then the Yanks took another player way off my top 100 (Culver). That seldom happens now.

TomBruno23: Are you on Goodreads? Can we be friends?
Keith Law: I’m not on Goodreads – I prefer to keep all my book content on my own site.

Andy: You need to convert your daughter to team hot fruit.
Keith Law: She loves pie, but her birthday’s a bit early for any local fruit other than strawberry, which I think is best served with shortcakes or just on its own.

Deke: Starting to think summer is going to be a pretty dramatic influencer on how the pandemic goes, or too early to say?
Keith Law: I don’t think I know nearly enough to answer that.

Kevin: In your book you discuss the high risk of drafting high school pitchers in the first round. Is there any less risk with high school lefties vs righties?
Keith Law: There wasn’t enough data to answer that question.

Michael: An article (ESPN) today stated that the best option for the Phillies in the case of a Universal DH would be Alec Bohm.  But wouldn’t a better option be Hoskins at DH and Bohm at first?
Keith Law: Absolutely. Bohm would be a better defender at 1b than Hoskins.

Michael: Hey Keith- trying to get a handle on the 20-80 rating scale.  Does it mean that a player with a 50 grade is league average?  And if a player had 50 grades across the board (eye, power, defense, etc.) would he be expected to have a WAR of 0.0?  I’m guessing not, but just trying to get a better understanding of what the numbers mean.  Thanks!
Keith Law: A 50 is major league average; a player with all 50s should be a regular, not a replacement-level player (WAR 0).

Harrisburg Hal: I appreciate the podcast that introduced me to Sagrada.  I’ve been playing the app for a few weeks now and could see buying the physical game to play with my kids who like Azul so much.  I know you don’t eat red meat any longer.  Do you miss carnitas?
Keith Law: I don’t eat beef or lamb, but I still eat pork in limited quantities. I probably have carnitas in some form 2 or 3 times a year. I should probably give up all red meat, but eating pork just occasionally – and the most enjoyable cuts at that, like pork shoulder or belly – seems to satisfy my desire for it without making me feel sick. (It seems that the metabolic disorder I share with my daughter makes red meat especially tough for us to digest.)

Chuck: This feels like the longest Superbowl pregame show ever, and I checked out a long time ago. Can we just write off sports in 2020 and come back strong in 2021? Wake me when it’s over.
Keith Law: If we do that, some aspects won’t come back. Minor league baseball is going to be crushed by a lost season, for example.

Johnny: Doctors wear N95 filtration face masks and are able to treat covid-patients directly without contracting.  There are plenty of KN95 face masks available to purchase everywhere online (both have 95% filtration) for around $1-$3.  Can’t the general public wear these KN95 face masks outside their home and open up the states?  There are many Asian countries that mandate this and have successfully opened up for business.  Why can’t we follow what other countries are doing?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to this, but I will say we can’t even get everyone to wear cloth masks to go to the grocery store without some gun-clutching loon shouting “FREEDOM!”

Mike: Of course the worst first round pick you have seen belongs to the Cubs (pre-Theo/Jed). As a Cubs fan it always felt like they always had prospects they expected big things from (e.g. Colvin, Patterson) that never panned out. I understand that teams are going to pump up their guys but it seems like it was an issue in the organization at the time. What was the cause of this? Bad scouting, bad strategy, etc.?
Keith Law: They definitely drafted more for tools than skills or performance for a long time, hitting big on a few (Javy Baez really was in that mold, but he got much better in pro ball) and whiffing on the majority (Brett Jackson!). But Colvin wasn’t even that toolsy, just as Simpson wasn’t; some picks were just the results of their unique process and I don’t want to generalize too much without knowing what led them to take those players – Colvin and Corey Patterson were taken by two different regimes and couldn’t be less similar as players.

Donny: Favorite film by the Coen Brothers? What are your thoughts overall on them?
Keith Law: If you’re asking me which one I’d most want to watch right now, that’s The Big Lebowski. I don’t know if that’s really their ‘best,’ if we’re talking critical value rather than sheer entertainment.

Mike: Hi Keith – do you plan on updating or expanding your draft rankings prior to the draft?
Keith Law: Yes, of course.

Mike: Holy crap you could have built a super team in 2010 with players not drafted in round 1
Keith Law: This happens often, but 2010 seems to have been especially bad for the first round.

John: For all of the various plans that require seemingly impossible steps/benchmarks to meet, can we really go back to having sports before there is a vaccine widely available?
Keith Law: Sports, yes. Fans in stands, probably not. And even then, we have enough people who are likely to refuse or hesitate on a COVID-19 vaccine that, barring mandatory vaccinations (which, as a result of a flood of right-wing judicial appointments in the last 40 months, ain’t likely), it may still not be safe to allow fans after a vaccine is introduced.

Johnny: Instead of giving everyone $1200, shouldn’t the gov’t prop up banks so that the banks can defer mortgages and landlords can def rent?  I feel that the gov’t continues to waste so much money while so many continue to default on loans
Keith Law: Bailing out the banks didn’t do a whole lot for Americans last time around.

Mike: No real question today.  Just a thanks for your pro-science stance and posting from a biochemist
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I think it’s an obligation for anyone with a platform, given how many anti-science people are willing to use their podiums to spread disinformation and outright falsehoods.

Perks of Being a …: Which player has more upside, Reid Detmers or Nick Gonzales? Seems pretty similar, with one inherently coming with more risk.
Keith Law: If Detmers really does end up with 70 command, it’s him. More risk because he’s a pitcher, though.

Darren: Are there ‘risers’ or ‘fallers’ in this year?  What is affecting draft position towards the top of the draft?
Keith Law: I don’t think players are rising or falling except around signability.

Frank: Is Zac Veen a similar caliber prospect compared to last year’s top HS prospect, Riley Greene? Does he have more upside due to his power potential?
Keith Law: I like Veen’s overall package of athleticism and projection better, but Greene was a better hitter at the same age.

Cashliam: Have you seen the Spiel Des Jahres nominees ? How many have you played?
Keith Law: For those who haven’t seen, the nominees for the Spiel des Jahres are My City, Nova Luna, and Pictures; while the nominees for the Kennerspiel des Jahres (connoisseur’s game of the year) are Cartographers, The Crew, and King’s Dilemma. I have The Crew but haven’t played it yet, and I haven’t played any of the others; I can tell you I have zero interest in Pictures, which isn’t my type of game at all.

Mike: A five round draft favours big market teams and those who recruit better doesn’t it?  Other than cost reduction why would some of the teams want to do this??
Keith Law: Does it? I don’t agree that it favors big market teams at all.

Howey: Seems like college pitchers are taking up more of the mid/late first round talk than most years. Is this due to the ease of scouting with limited data, a lack of chance for high school position player breakouts, or just how the talent spread in general?
Keith Law: This is an especially good college pitching year anyway, and the circumstances surrounding this year’s draft are pushing teams to go conservative anyway.

Guest: Congratulations on the NYT recommendation! Hard work pays off??
Keith Law: Thank you! I’m really thrilled that the response to The Inside Game has been so positive. I wanted this book to reach more than baseball fans, and I wouldn’t be able to do that without help from folks outside of our little bubble.

Doug: Should teams put all their top prospects (CJ Abrams for example) on their taxi squads no matter their proximity to the MLB just so they have some semblance of professional instruction?
Keith Law: I think so. I would, at least.

Cavan Biggio: In my debut last year, I had a wOBA of 403 vs fastballs, 265 vs breaking, and 211 vs changeups.  Are these splits fixable or perhaps a flaw in my approach/swing right now?
Keith Law: Also, IIRC, that wOBA on fastballs fell apart with higher velocity – wasn’t Biggio awful on above-average or better FB? There’s nothing fixable here; he wasn’t a prospect before last season and a hot September doesn’t change that.

Punk in Drublic: The 50 50 revenue split is such an awful deal for the players for so many reasons (already negotiated, they don’t get more when owners have a great revenue year, and teams that own their cable networks pay their own team below market rates to funnel profits to the cable network).  Why won’t anyone come out in newspapers, ESPN, etc and say so?  All we hear are blowhards saying players must take whatever they get told to accept.  Basically being the owners PR team.
Keith Law: I mean, that’s the entire history of the baseball media, right? It’s the #1 argument I see for the union pushing to allow more media access to players, when they typically want less. That’s your direct line to get your side of the story to journalists. Otherwise, we in the media hear far more from the management side of things.

JG: I’m a minority in my mid-50s.  Even though I’ve lived my entire life in Texas, I have never been the victim of an act of overt racism.  I sincerely thought the country had turned an important page when Obama was elected.  12 years later it feels almost hopeless.  These Trumpers aren’t going anywhere.  You can almost feel the anger that’s going to be unleashed if he loses.
Keith Law: If there’s any glimmer of hope, it’s that the population of the U.S. has been getting more diverse over time, and will continue to do so.

Bob: Keith: regarding trump, he is exhausting. But I feel like I need to read his twitter feed, listen to rallies/briefings to get the full context unedited.  Newest example is “per capita” bull shit from yesterday.  Do you still listen read his nonsense or are you too the point – the evidence is there – I don’t need to read or hear from him anymore.  Cake looked great by the way – Happy Birthday to your daughter!
Keith Law: I have never followed his accounts, since I get enough of him secondhand through other media people I follow.

Eh! Steve!: I’m depressed that we’ve managed to turn a pandemic into yet another culture war.  Is there any hope for stopping the polarization of everything?
Keith Law: Nope.
Keith Law: There is profit in polarization, and that will keep it around forever.

Joe: If minor league contraction happens will teams have the option to have short season teams outside of the complex leagues? Any word on the cap for number of complex teams?
Keith Law: My understanding was no, but I hope that changes.
Keith Law: Why shouldn’t some teams have the option to keep operating short-season clubs?

Trevor: KLaw, enjoyed your 2010 redraft article and personally root for late rounds picks like Eaton and Dickerson. I’m not disputing Simmons at 1.1, but I don’t think the GMs would redraft him 1.1 considering they themselves have locked up the next 5 guys on your list for a combined $1.1B
Keith Law: Unfair comparison, since Simmons signed a seven year extension as a 1+ player.

Tom: Do you think Austin Wells is a first round talent?
Keith Law: I do not. Second round, for sure.

Joe: Any sci-fi/fantasy book recommendations? I just read Left Hand of Darkness and really enjoyed it. Farenheight 451 is already on my list.
Keith Law: Jonathan Strange & Mr. Norrell. The Dispossessed. Among Others. The Fifth Season. An Unkindness of Ghosts. American Gods. To Say Nothing of the Dog.

W.E.B. DuBois: Gut feeling: do we get a 2020 season?
Keith Law: Yes, my gut feeling is they force one through.

Trevor: O/U: The 2010 draft class produces 0.5 HOFers?
Keith Law: Over.

Larry: Do you have any feel for how the UDFA portion could go? Will it just be mostly seniors and that’s it? Also, how do you anticipate players deciding where to sign? If 20k is the max they can get anywhere, would they just sign with the team they root for? I’d think that could benefit teams like Atlanta with a large, talented region where most of their fans live.
Keith Law: Senior signs and not much more, I think. I would at least advise such players to consider whether the teams trying to sign them offer them credible paths to the majors. A decent shortstop prospect might not want to sign with the Rays or Padres, given who else they have.

Mike: I’d nearly forgotten the Chad Jenkins/Deck McGuire fiascos…add in Jeff Hoffman, Jon Harris etc and the Jays record on college arms is pretty bad…isn’t that odd for “safer” type picks?
Keith Law: Yes, their process – whatever it was – didn’t seem to identify the right college pitchers, in hindsight. Jenkins is the only one who seemed like a huge reach at the time. I do think Hoffman would have fared worse today because his fastball plays down so much, but at the time it was just “tremendous athlete with big velocity.”

Pat: What’s your opinion of Kyle Harrison? You think he would have a chance of being a first rounder if the high school season played out?
Keith Law: I have never heard that about him.

Amir: Do you think that someone like Nick Loftin who’s deemed to be “safe” and has a “high floor” would be more appealing than in past drafts with the less in-game looks and performance data to assess prospects standings in the draft?
Keith Law: Not a first-rounder, but yes, I think he’ll go higher in this draft than he would have in a year with a typical spring season.

Chris: Do you think more states will allow for mail-in voting this year?  I am trepidatious about going to the polls, but will refuse to skip voting this November.  My state does not currently allow mail-in voting, and I fear that the guess-which party-run legislature and governor will nix any such proposal because it will not work in their favor.  What say you?
Keith Law: I hope so, but are there logistical issues with this? Do states have to have the infrastructure to handle thousands or even millions of mail-in ballots?
Keith Law: Delaware is allowing anyone to register as “sick” or “disabled” to vote via mail, under an emergency order this year. I do hope that this at least leads to a permanent change here where early voting is enabled.

Larry: Any rumored signability issues with HS top 150ish guys?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s always the case.

Gary: How likely is Jack Leftwich to be taken in the top five rounds?
Keith Law: Last I heard was that it’s more likely he returns to school as he wouldn’t go high enough to come out.

Ridley: So, the Senate Majority Leader said that he would no extension on the $600/week payments because people are choosing to stay home instead of work, and that his #1 priority was to insure that workers who caught COVID wouldn’t be able to sue.

Two questions: Instead “staying home instead of working” a feature and not a bug during a quarantine? And, while we sure seem to love “job creators” in this country, there’s not a lot of love for the “job doers”, is there?
Keith Law: If I were running for any federal office as a Democrat, I would run ads that just show quotes from McConnell, Graham, etc. opposing extending those payments.

Miles Roby: Have you read Empire Falls by Richard Russo? If so, do you recommend?
Keith Law: Yes, I read it in 2007 and loved it so much I went on to read everything else he’s ever written.

Gary: If most teams are leaning conservative this year, doesn’t this set up as a good time to zig and go HS upside?
Keith Law: Sort of. The players have to be there, and they have to be willing to sign.

Tom: Randomly thought about how good Corbin Martin was in the minors before TJ, think he can get healthy and be a really solid starter in 2021?
Keith Law: I do.

Robert: Could the lack of a minor league season have an impact on major league roster decisions?  For example the White Sox with Kopech and Madrigal, could there be more of a willingness to start service time clocks rather than lose a year of development?
Keith Law: There should be.
Keith Law: Any team that might contend this year should be willing to call up any prospect who could help.

Chris: Should the city of oakland evict and sue for damages against the As for not paying their rent?
Keith Law: Per Susan Slusser, the A’s invoked a clause in their contract that allows them to do this. I don’t see what recourse the city would have here.

JP: do you envision governments being able to mandate the COVID-19 vaccine in order to send you kids to public school? and if so, shouldn’t it be ALL vaccines?
Keith Law: Technically, they can do that. Four states mandate vaccines with no nonmedical exemptions already. All states have some sort of vaccine mandate for schoolchildren.

Chris: Do you expect to have a clear picture of the top 7-10 picks of the draft beforehand, or do you expect it to stay quiet and all guess work this year?
Keith Law: I think we’ll know the top 10-12 pretty well by draft day. Back of the round will probably be more speculation this year than typical.

Shawn: Hey Keith, great job always. What about Jared Kelley to the Mets at 19. Thanks
Keith Law: Highly doubt they take a prep arm at 19. I wouldn’t.

Steven B.: Do you like OSU catcher Dillon Dingler in the 1st round this year?
Keith Law: He was on my mock last week and I believe he goes in the first round.

Todd: Im really starting to think there’s no bottom to the Trump administration and that by late summer the economy could be enough that people will think he did a good job while he averts their attention from 200k dead. Please tell me Im wrong?
Keith Law: I don’t think the economy recovers that quickly. It’s going to be too hard to push people back to manufacturing facilities or other environments where they’re in proximity to other workers without creating new outbreaks.

Larry: What are you hearing on Mick Abel? I get the HS pitcher thing but man do scouts love him.
Keith Law: Best HS arm this year. Only prep pitcher on my mock last week.

Mike: If you go first round and get offered half of value, what do you do?  It’s arguable that contracts are going to go way down if fans can’t get back. I’m team fuck the owners, but if I’m a player and get offered 1M in a 2M slot it might be hard to turn it down
Keith Law: I would advise the player to turn it down. Go to JC next year if you’re a HS player.

Bighen: Simmons going 1 seems Egh.   I get it but analysts always warn us that defense ages early and often quickly.  So he may have almost no time left as an elite defender which would make the rest of his career look iffy.  I don’t think he can be rated above yelich, Harper or Machado for an exercise like that.  Sales future prospects and degrom’s age at least give pause.  But I think the simmons choice is not as “defensible“ as written.
Keith Law: Simmons isn’t an average defender or even an above-average one. He’s an 80 defender at short, like Ozzie Smith and Mark Belanger, both of whom held their value into their late 30s. Even Vizquel, who wasn’t as good a defender as Simmons is, held most of his defensive value till his career ended. I don’t think Simmons is an obvious choice, and feel like this exercise is both subjective and inherently speculative, but I do not agree with your counterargument here – the best argument against Andrelton is around his bat, not his glove, as it is offensive decline that ends the careers of elite defenders more than loss of glove.

Guest: Also I loved Smart Baseball and reading your work. Just as I joined ESPN as a PA you left. :/ I am reading you now in the Athletic!!
Keith Law: Well, thank you. I did try to hint that I might not stay at ESPN last year, but I didn’t decide for certain until late November.

Mike: Since you missed out on in game scouting are you watching film or cross checking for players you haven’t seen in person?
Keith Law: I watch video where I can, but this year I’ll rely more on calls to scouts than I typically do.

Jason Amico: What are your thoughts on how Joey Bart’s defensive ability behind the plate will translate at the big league level? I was curious if his hand injuries and setbacks last season would have any impact
Keith Law: I don’t see any reason it would hurt his defense in the long run. If he keeps getting hurt, maybe it’s a sign he can’t stay at catcher, but we aren’t at that point.

JD: Oakland has gone with high ceiling, up the middle tools players in recent 1st rounds (Beck, Murray, Davidson), are there names that fit this bill at the end of the first round this year?
Keith Law: Yes … but Beck hasn’t panned out, Murray didn’t sign, and Davidson is still a big question mark. Not sure they’d stick with that approach in a weird draft year anyway.

Mike: Do you think teams are prepared for this draft or is it a bigger crap shoot than normal?  Can’t wait to read the redraft article in 2030
Keith Law: Let’s just hope we’re all here to read it in 2030. I do think teams could draft today if they had to. There isn’t that much to discuss at this point without games to watch.

TomBruno23: I want to try OOTP 21, but I’m scared I’ll full go Universal Baseball Association and even more insane than I already am. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I have played OOTP, maybe 20 years ago (?), and I just can’t do it now because I’d get sucked into it and lose so much time.

Dr. Bob: I have always been opposed to the DH for reasons you already know. However, an article by a former sportswriter a couple of years ago detailed how no team (even in the NL) works with their pitchers to hit at any level. That’s when I was converted. Now Covid-19, of all things, might bring it to the NL.
Keith Law: Yep, I don’t really even see how you could work with pitchers enough on their hitting to make a difference. This should have happened years ago – the game will be better off for it.

Mike: How hard has it been to put together mock drafts this year? Has there still been a lack of info tying players to teams or have you been starting to hear more rumblings?
Keith Law: I had less info for last week’s mock than I would for a normal mock one month before a draft. We’ll see if that changes now that we’re close to the draft date and everyone is doing mocks so information is flowing more.

Mike Trout: Barring injury, when it’s all said and done am I the consensus GOAT?
Keith Law: There will be contrarians who argue against it, but I think that’s where we’re headed.

Regan: Braxton Garrett or Trevor Rogers, who has the higher upside?
Keith Law: I think Garrett.

Guest: We all understand Twitter is a cesspool but have you been following this hitting guru stuff? It’s pure gold.
Keith Law: I haven’t … and now I’m scared.

Mike-Y: How excited are you about Michael Bay making a movie about the pandemic?
Keith Law: Is he … is he going to just blow up the virus?

JP: what happens to Kyler Murray if he wants to play baseball sometime in the future? free agent? re-enters the draft?
Keith Law: Pretty sure he’s on Oakland’s restricted list and they’d hold his rights.

Guest: If he didn’t have TJ surgery, would Kevin Abel be a top draft pick this year?
Keith Law: A pick, yes, a top one, probably not.

Johnny: Will Plesac be an above avg starter in the bigs?
Keith Law: I think he can be.

Johnny: Shouldn’t Jacob Degrom be #2?
Keith Law: He’s a 31-year-old starter who’s already had TJ. His long-term projection isn’t great, even though in the short term there are few pitchers I’d rather have.

Ben: Favorite film of the 7Os?
Keith Law: I’d take The Sting over Chinatown and Star Wars – but really, the kids of today should defend themselves against the ’70s.
Keith Law: Oh, I finally saw Taxi Driver and Midnight Cowboy for the first time in the last week. We’ve been catching up on all-time great films one or both of us hasn’t seen.

Mark in Santa Monica: If there is a short season, are there any teams you think it helps more to get to the postseason?
Keith Law: It increases the odds of a team having a really fluky season and getting into the playoffs. For example, the White Sox were a good-not-great team for 162 games. If they play 70 games, could they get an outlier performance or two that makes them a 42-28 team that wins the division? Absolutely. More likely than a 98-64 season.

Pat: Did you ever watch The Wire? The pandemic finally gave me the the time to do so. Great show. maybe favorite of all time.
Keith Law: Yep, reviewed all five seasons here.

Sam: Favorite “I know it isn’t a good movie but I really enjoy it any way” movie?
Keith Law: I have a soft spot for Top Secret! I’ll always remember Deja Vu.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for the questions and for reading. I believe I’ll have my second mock next week, and then I’ll do two more before we actually draft. Take care & stay safe!