Joker.

In what appears to be a remake of Falling Down with clown makeup, Joker has somehow ended up a critical darling, leading all films in 2019 with eleven nominations, including Best Picture, Best Actor, and Best Adapted Screenplay, for this year’s Academy Awards. It’s a grim picture that manages to lionize a murderer, present an insulting image of mental illness, and retcon a major character’s backstory, driven entirely by the lead performance by Joaquin Phoenix as the Joker descends into madness. (Joker is now available to rent on amazon and iTunes.)

Joker is a new origin story – because the world hasn’t had enough of those – for the most iconic villain in the Batman stories, a character portrayed quite memorably by Jack Nicholson and Heath Ledger, among others. Arthur Fleck, played here by Phoenix, is a clown for hire, a meek, lonely adult man who lives with his frail mother and has the very rare condition known as pathological laughter, a form of pseudobulbar affect that is usually the consequence of a brain injury. He can be weirdly childlike, but only at certain times, and he has some sort of serious mental illness that requires seven different medications, although the illness is never identified. Most of the first half of the film shows how little use or regard society has for Arthur, until a series of revelations finally causes him to go off the rails, becoming the psychotic killer we recognize as the Joker.

There’s a clear intent to get after some Big Themes here, two in particular. The first, around mental illness and how little regard our society has for people who suffer from it, is the film’s major flaw and one I’ll return to in a moment. The second is a simpler depiction of growing economic inequality, with Arthur and his mother on one side of the divide, and Thomas Wayne and his family (including the young Bruce) on the other. Arthur’s first crime makes him a sort of inadvertent Gavrilo Princip, spurring a grassroots movement of people in clown masks railing against the 1%, while Thomas Wayne, here depicted as a cold, ambitious billionaire running for Mayor of Gotham (which differs from previous backstories), is a derisive, entitled man who hides behind wrought-iron fences and attends fancy banquets while showing no regard for anyone beneath him.

Joker‘s big failing is that Arthur should not be a sympathetic character. He describes himself in the film as a “mentally ill loner,” and he is utterly beaten down (literally and figuratively) and discarded by the dystopian-but-accurate society of Gotham, which, in the script’s logic, turns him into a gleeful killer. Several of his victims appear to have had it coming in this twisted worldview – he kills several yuppie douchebags on a subway train early in the film, and then later, after receiving some news that seems to cause him to completely snap, enacts revenge on multiple people in his orbit who have harmed him, and in each case the script seems to justify it. There’s more than a kernel of truth behind the story – the United States is about the worst place in the developed world to have a serious mental illness, especially if you’re not well-off, and of course it’s ridiculously easy for people who shouldn’t have access to guns to get one. The script just paints way too much of a straight line from mental illness to violence, which way too often mirrors both media portrayals of real-world serial killers and mass shooters – nearly all of whom look a lot like Arthur – and the excuses we hear from gun-rights people whenever there’s another massacre.

Phoenix does give a good performance here, although the role itself is written to be extreme, so his performance is going to stand out more for its sharper peaks and valleys; it’s a bit like a great hitter going to Coors Field and putting up video game numbers, where he’s still a great hitter but the superficial stat line may overstate the case. (As an aside, I did wonder if choosing the music of an incarcerated pedophile for Phoenix’s now famous scene on the outdoor staircase was deliberate.) Two of the best ways to get an Oscar nomination for acting are to play someone famous and to play a crazy person; Phoenix certainly got the second one, and he plays it to the hilt. He’s appropriately disturbing when he needs to be, although his affect when he’s just regular Arthur tends to come and go a bit, including his use of an infantile voice in certain scenes but not others. There are other good actors in this film – Bryan Tyree Henry and Zazee Beats are both wasted in minuscule roles – but no character gets beyond two dimensions, not even Robert Deniro’s talk show host Murray Franklin, although Deniro at least appears to be having fun with the role.

We’ve seen examples of genre films tackling serious themes successfully in recent years, including Black Panther, so it can clearly be done. Joker is not as successful, especially when it comes to its treatment of mental illness, and in the process also turns an incel into some sort of folk hero when the history of the character is that he’s a sociopathic villain. I don’t dismiss it as a comic book movie, but I do think it aspires to a level of seriousness it fails to reach, and in the process mixes its messages in a way that’s actively unhelpful. Todd Phillips getting an Oscar nomination for his direction here over Greta Gurwig and Lulu Wang is an absolute joke. I’m sure Phoenix is going to win Best Actor for this performance, but any more honors for Joker will only serve to elevate a movie that doesn’t deserve it.

Stick to baseball, 1/25/20.

I had one piece for the Athletic this week, on Atlanta’s signing of Marcell Ozuna. I held a Klawchat on Friday.

My second book, The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves, is due out on April 21st from Harper Collins, and you can pre-order it now via their site or wherever fine books are sold. I also sent out a fresh edition of my free email newsletter this week, revealing my Hall of Fame ballot.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 1/24/20.

Keith Law: It can’t all be wedding cake. Klawchat.

Krontz: Taylor Trammell ever hit enough for a Jacoby Ellsbury comp to be reasonable?
Keith Law: I don’t see them as similar players, really. I believe Trammell will hit, though.

Keith: Clay Davenport’s preseason win projections really like the Mets (96 wins) in the National league behind only the Dodgers (102). What have they done this offseason to improve so significantly, and do you buy into it?
Keith Law: I would bet the under on both win totals there.

Keith: Who do you project as the White Sox starting rotation in July 2020?
Keith Law: Giolito, Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Cease, Kopech. I wouldn’t rule out seeing Stiever in the majors before the season ends. Obviously I’m putting Lopez in the bullpen, which I’ve always thought was his ideal role.

addoeh: With Terry Jones’s passing, what was your favorite Python sketch?  Upper Class Twit of the Year has to be mine.
Keith Law: That’s a contender. Argument Clinic. The Piranha brothers. And the entire show built around the Michael Ellis gag is probably my favorite thing they did, although that’s a series of sketches. It’s hilarious and also wonderfully paranoid.

Keith: Hey Keith, thanks for the chat. Does Dylan Carlson’s breakout last year fit is profile? His BA was 50 points higher than his career average and his slg perctange was .150 points higher. He did do part of this at AAA in his age 20 season. Thanks and good luck at the Athletic.
Keith Law: Not sure about your question but I’ll say I think the breakout was real.

Dee Arby: Klaw, I really enjoy how you speak up regarding domestic violence.  My question is, how do you deal with the issue that because these athletes are so rich, their accusers can have ulterior motives? For example, how would you have done with the Brian Banks issue? He was the USC linebacker who spent six years in prision because he was falsely accused? Genuinely curious, not being snarky.
Keith Law: The “ulterior motives” thing is kind of bullshit. Most abuse/assault victims don’t report. Of those who do, nearly all are telling the truth. There’s a substantial social and often financial cost to coming forward. Just because every once in a blue moon there’s a case of a false accusation – which gets over-reported, of course – doesn’t mean we can or should generalize and think that many more accusers are lying. They’re not. The data say so, and ignoring that is classic base-rate neglect.

Lyle: In BA’s 2023 Opening Day Lineups for the Mariners, they had Tom Murphy at catcher. (I know, I know, not your list.) Can you come up with any legitimate reason other than a trade as to why Cal Raleigh would not be the starting catcher by then (especially wrt Murphy)?
Keith Law: No, I’d put Raleigh there.

bartleby: Keith, your comments on the Clemens/McReady relationship were interesting- what do you think of Woody Allen?
Keith Law: He’s canceled, appropriately. (I only saw … three of his films, I think, the last being Midnight in Paris whenever that came out.)

Michael: Your thoughts on the Metz Hiring Louis Rojas?
Keith Law: I wasn’t really kidding with my tweet the other day – the process ended up with them hiring a highly qualified manager, one with ~1000 games of managing experience, a bilingual guy who’s considered forward-thinking, comfortable with data, and good with players. Their second choice was the better candidate.

Buckner 86: Is Balazovic‘s upside a top 25 SP?
Keith Law: That might be aggressive but I’m a big fan.

Mike: You may have covered it in a previous chat, but are you going to be doing any podcasts with the Athletic or elsewhere?
Keith Law: Yes, with the Athletic, starting later this spring.

Tyler: Congrats on the move to The Athletic. Will you still be holding chats here regularly or moving to a different platform (presumably theirs)?
Keith Law: Klawchats will continue here for the foreseeable future.

Del, Venice CA: Whenever anyone talks about the Mets the consensus seems to be that Dom Smith is the odd man out and he should be traded. Since JD Davis’ value could never be higher after his 2019 season AND he fields multiple positions like a DH shouldn’t he be the one of the two to be shopped?
Keith Law: The assumption built into those statements is that Smith would have a higher trade value because he’s younger and a plus defender at 1b.

John Olerud: Full disclosure, I have posed this question to other baseball writers I respect, as I am truly interested to see if there are different perspectives on this subject. Based on the numbers, I’m surprised there hasn’t been much discussion (at least none that I’ve seen) about how Larry Walker’s career is truly a lot closer statistically to Jeter’s than impressions would imply. Indeed, Jeter has the milestone numbers that are important with HOF voters. And he was especially good when it ‘mattered’, but that has a lot to do with who and what teams he was lucky enough to play with and for. Indeed, this is not so much to disparage Jeter, but more a reflection of the “fame” element inherent to the HOF. Whatevever the reasons, do you personally find it at all strange that there seems to be this prevailing feeling that somhow Walker doesn’t breathe the same air as Jeter? Or maybe you disagree entirely with this premise? Thanks.
Keith Law: Jeter is a clear HoFer, but benefited from playing for the team that gets on national TV most often, and from having great teammates that helped him appear in the playoffs almost every year and in six World Series, and from announcers falling all over themselves to praise him even for things he did poorly (coughdefensecough). He was a great player and I voted for him. I just don’t understand why we have to inflate his accomplishments rather than respecting him for exactly who and what he really was.

Moe Mentum: I know you favor board games that involve strategy and puzzles (e.g. Carcassone), but do you ever play more mainstream “party” games that reward creativity with words? I think it would be fun to play games like Balderdash or Wise & Otherwise with a man with your wit and flair for language.
Keith Law: Wise & Otherwise is cool. I like Taboo as well, and there’s a game from about two years ago called Trapwords that works similarly but where the opposing team picks the words you can’t say. When I’m in a group setting and we want a party game I’ll usually suggest One Night Ultimate Werewolf (since it requires almost no instruction to play) or Codenames.

Craig: The only way I can make sense of the Brewers offseason is that they want a bunch of interchangable parts at 1B, SS and 3B in the hopes that with platoon splits and pinch hitting, they can be league averagish at those positions and have Yelich/Huira carry the team offensively. Is this accurate?
Keith Law: I don’t like assuming any team is done at this point in the offseason. Still some decent FA out there and a lot of trade chatter.

The Sloth: KLaw, are you attending any Phish concerts on the summer tour?
Keith Law: My girlfriend pulled up the schedule last night … decent chance we’ll go to one of the two mid-Atlantic venues in August.

The Sloth: What are your thoughts on the upside and most likely outcome for Brennan Davis?
Keith Law: That’s a question I’ll answer in the top 100, which will run the week of February 24th on the Athletic.

Joe: How does the Beltran news affect his HOF candidacy?
Keith Law: My guess is not at all.

Sammy So-So: If you’re a GM trading for a player like Nolan Arenado who has an opt-out after two years, are you offering assets in return to the other team just for those two years if a new arrangement with the player can’t be reached before the deal is done?
Keith Law: I’m valuing my return as two years of Arenado and assuming he’s opting out. I wouldn’t pay in prospects on the assumption he’s staying.
Keith Law: If he doesn’t opt out, something has gone wrong.

Christian (Raleigh, NC): Keith, which Braves pitching prospect has the best chance of making a big jump this year and helping out at the major league level? Anderson, Wright, Toussaint, Muller, etc.  P.S. — I hope things work out and you are able to come to the Raleigh/Cary area for a book signing. I would love to come out and meet you.
Keith Law: Anderson is the best, but Touki has the biggest potential to make a jump. Such a great athlete and a loose, quick arm.

Kevin: What are the chances that Anthopolous opts not to resign Freeman to a worthy extension?
Keith Law: Freeman will be 32 when his current deal ends. I’m not sure what a “worthy” extension means but I’m not rushing to extend him into his mid-30s.

Joe: Orioles are going in on BA for leaving Mountcastle off their top 100.  Seems like it would be odd for a guy who doesn’t walk or offer defensive value to actually make a top 100, no?
Keith Law: He’s not a top 100 candidate for me at all.

Matt: What board game do you think is underrated? What do you like about this game?
Keith Law: New Bedford – a worker placement game with a lot of fun elements (including the whaling aspect) that plays well under an hour. Glen More – a medium-weight game of tile-laying where one of the main goals is to convert wheat into whiskey. I’ve been playing La Isla a bit more lately, and I really like the way it forces you to plan ahead a few turns but also prevents you from having to plan ahead more than that, so it doesn’t become too heavy a game.

Tony: I’m not sure how to phrase this as a question, but the thing that I’ve never been able to make peace with about Andruw Jones’ Hall of Fame candidacy is that while he was truly one of the best defenders at his position in history for a decade, he then spent the last five years of his career being so bad defensively that not only was he moved off of center field, he was pretty much moved off the field entirely.
Keith Law: Because of his knees. He was so elite a defender that he’s become the modern standard for CF defense.

Bighen: Mets are going to make a bad Marte trade because Wilpons and Bvw know this is basically their last shot. No real question here but a little frustrating
Keith Law: Maybe. The Padres seem motivated to make a deal, and they have the prospects to acquire anyone, so there’s some chance they make a bad trade too.
Keith Law: (FTR, I wouldn’t deal Gore for any of these 1- or 2-year players.)

Professor Woland: I’m worried that the narrative now with regards to Altuve is going to be that he owes his success to the sign stealing stuff instead of natural talent, which would have a negative impact on future players of a similar size. Do you think that will be the case?
Keith Law: I have had that thought too. I hope it’s not the case; it’ll help if Altuve has a typical Altuve year in 2020.

Jerry: What kind of peak slash could you see for Kelenic? Is .300/.400/.500 in the realm of possibilities? Is he an MVP-caliber type of prospect (all things considered of course)?
Keith Law: MVP caliber prospect. He was in my midseason top 10 in July.

Casey: Is Zach Thompson a guy who could contribute sometime late this season or would it be wiser to get him through a full minor league season healthy and let him compete for a spot next year?
Keith Law: Seems aggressive especially since he had the Kentucky Forearm flu just two years ago.

Logan: Should the contracts of Acuna and Ozzie allow the Braves to go bigger in other areas? Seems like Alex is not interested in any kind of long term type additions..
Keith Law: Other than 3b, where would he really upgrade? I feel like they’re set at so many spots.
Keith Law: I guess if you could convert the pitching prospects into a top-end starter, sure, but I don’t know of any one that’s available.

Dan on Oahu: Keith- congrats on your move to the Athletic, I had been on the fence about subscribing but jumped on the bandwagon as soon as I saw the move and it’s well worth the price of admission. What would be a reasonable return to the Cubs for Bryant from either the Braves or Dodgers? Same question for Arrenado?
Keith Law: I heard from one exec that the Cubs weren’t really talking Bryant with suitors. This was a club that, in theory, would be in his market.

Nathan: I have a 7 year old daughter who loves all things Disney. With Disney+ available she is wanting to watch some of the “classic” movies. How would you handle some of the blatantly racist movies of the past? I’m thinking specifically Dumbo (the crows) and Peter Pan (native Americans). Do I not let her watch those? Let her watch those but explain why they’re bad portrayals of these groups of people?
Keith Law: I had forgotten how racist Peter Pan was until I re-watched it with my daughter. She saw it once and that’s it; we didn’t let her watch it again. I don’t think she’s seen the animated Dumbo.

Hank: Why haven’t the Angels received much heat for sacrificing their 1st rounder Wil Wilson just to shed Cozarts salary? DBacks caught hell for the same type deal Arroyo/Touki..
Keith Law: The Angels used that money to sign Rendon. The Dbacks did it because they’d screwed up elsewhere.

Doug: Do you see Dansby Swanson ever being more with bat? Seems like his EV and Hard Hits improved, hopefully better results are coming. Maybe a Brandon Crawford type late bloom with the bat?
Keith Law: Yes, I think there’s more there.

Nick: Re: Daulton Varsho, does the bat play if they move him down the defensive spectrum?  And do you think he can contribute for AZ this year?
Keith Law: Yes, it does. No, probably not.

Larry: Who is the college pitcher and hitter you think will make the biggest jump this spring?
Keith Law: I’m still figuring out when it’ll run but I will have something on the draft up at the Athletic within the next month. I really liked Cole Wilcox in HS, but scouts I’ve asked have him more back of the first; I feel like he could end up in the top ten if he does what I think he can do all spring.

Doug: Lucius Fox and Anderson Tejeda – do they both stay at SS?  Who has the better future?
Keith Law: Fox for sure does. I think he’s the better prospect but I also haven’t done as much work on Texas for my top 100 yet.

Kevin W: What do you think of 3 batter tule and september rosters down from 40-28
Keith Law: I preferred a 2-batter rule but I’ll take this. September roster reduction I think addresses a real problem in a way that hurts players.

Steve : Seems like the Mets have taken a lot of unnecessary abuse for this Beltran saga.  It feels to me that they did the right thing firing him and Rojas was the right choice with his experience managing (and maybe should have been hired in the first place.)  You agree?
Keith Law: Their mistake was hiring Beltran in the first place, because he has no experience whatsoever. They have since done all the right things. (Also, if I were Beltran, I’d offer myself to any interested club as a manager in the minors this year. Go get a year of experience and odds are you’ll get interviewed for every opening next October.)

Kevin W: What is longest home run you have ever seen in person?
Keith Law: I’m not sure about in-game but I saw Barry Bonds take BP in Toronto in 2003 and hit one off the restaurant in CF that is the hardest-hit ball I think I’ve ever seen. Gallo at the Futures Game might be the longest HR in a game.

Dusty: I appreciate the candidness in your newsletter about the difficult moral judgments involved in voting for the Hall of Fame.  I just wanted to say that I appreciate having you as a voter and I hope you will continue to vote, as I feel like you give a voice to those of us who read you regularly and there need to be more voices like yours and not less.  Either way, I respect your decision and the thoughtfulness and openness with which you wrestle with it.
Keith Law: I feel like voting is a privilege and a responsibility. If I can’t fulfill the duties of a voter to my own standards, I won’t vote.

Beau: Chris Murphy (BOS) have any chance of remaining a starter? Didn’t seem to walk as many as expected in his prob debut.
Keith Law: Yes, definitely.

Kevin W: Do you think the best movies today are better than the best movies of 70’s and before?
Keith Law: Yes, but the gap between the best movies and the most commercially successful ones has widened.

James: My first Klawchat since you joined the Athletic so want to start off saying congrats. I’m seemingly one of the few who have no issue including Francisco Alvarez in a deal for Starling Marte. In brief, him being 3-4 years off at best, the overall “failure rate” (for lack of a better term) of catching prospects, and Marte’s no doubt talent and fit on the win-now Mets roster are all reasons why I see his inclusion as a headliner as a no-brainer. Am I crazy?
Keith Law: Crazy, no. But I don’t think I’d do it.
Keith Law: Not saying I wouldn’t trade Alvarez, just that I wouldn’t do it for a year of Marte (EDIT: Two years of Marte, including the team option). Plus, you just traded Kelenic in a deal that was an abject disaster … don’t further gut the system for more short-term help.

Kevin W: Do you think cora gets a lifetime ban?  And should altuve and bregman (and whoever else) be punished if they are caught cheating?
Keith Law: I hope not (for Cora). The players got immunity; we can’t change that now.

Matt: I watched American Factory last night. What a dystopian movie. And it’s REAL! How on earth can those workers justify not having an union when they went from making $30 to $14? I just don’t get how people fall for this garbage.
Keith Law: People falling for propaganda and voting against their own interests has been going on in the U.S. for over a century. It’s particularly stark now because, at least in my opinion, better information is available, and it’s easy to see how corporate money pushes its messages more strongly than, say, the pro-union forces were able to.
Keith Law: (Also, no idea how that movie didn’t immediately result in NLRB investigations into Fuyao. Its executives violated federal labor laws on camera!)

Steve: My wife is due for our first kid in two weeks. Any advice on fatherhood?
Keith Law: Get The Happiest Baby on the Block. And help your wife get as much sleep as she can.

Vincent Adultman: Has Josh Breaux passed Anthony Siegler (even if neither look like starting catchers) and does Antonio Gomez have a higher ceiling than both?
Keith Law: No.

Vincent Adultman: BA’s recent mock draft had Pete Crow-Armstrong falling to the Yankees at the bottom of the round- leaving the team pairing aside, has he “fallen” this much in the eyes of evaluators (or is it that deep of a draft) and if he fell that far, would you expect him to go to college?
Keith Law: He’s not a top half of the draft guy right now; I’m not sure he’d make my top 30 if I wrote one today.

Joe: Please explain how Sammy Sosa is not a HOF ?
Keith Law: 58.6 career WAR with a short peak is actually on the low side for Hall of Famers.

Roger: What do you make of Coors field splits? Arenado’s BA and OPS are pretty staggering such that I’d be very cautious in a trade, no?
Keith Law: Plenty of evidence that Rockies who leave Coors outperform their road stats from when they were with Colorado.

Alex: I 100% agree that a discussion needs to be had regarding DV and the HOF.  As a family law lawyer, though, I struggle with the suspensions that leagues hand out to players that involve withholding their pay.  In a lot of these cases, the victim is awarded a percentage of the abusers earnings as spousal support, child support, etc.  By docking an abuser’s pay, you are taking money out of the victim’s pocket.  That isn’t ideal.  Of course, a domestic abuser getting to appear on the national stage isn’t ideal, either.  What’s the answer?  The suspension holds but equalizing payments are made to the victim directly from the team withholding salary?
Keith Law: I appreciate the insight & sentiment in your proposal, but in the cases we’ve had so far, many of the victims have stayed with the suspended players, so I’m not sure how you could pay a player’s wife while he was suspended without pay.

lucas: If Amed Rosario struggles again at SS this year (acknowledging he improved in the 2nd half), would you move on, knowing Gimenez and Mauricio are knocking on the door?
Keith Law: He was much better in the second half. I’m not giving up on him.

Jason: What is  the ceiling for Luis Urias?
Keith Law: Above average regular. Curious to see how Milwaukee gets him 500 AB this year, which he needs.

Brandon: Related to my Fire Bridich question–Bridich said, regarding Arenado’s opt-out, that it was Bridich’s suggestion.  Two questions: (a) if that is true, is there any rational justification for the team to suggest a player opt-out unless needed to make the deal; (b) if not true, is there any good PR reason for the team to assert that the opt-out was the team’s idea.  Thanks.
Keith Law: I have no inside knowledge on this but I would be shocked if Arenado would have signed an extension without an opt-out.

Kevin: To the people who think Scott Rolen is not a HOFer, but vote in Omar Vizquel….what is wrong with you
Keith Law: A great question.

Joe: Disney+ will preface these movies now acknowledging they’re from another era.
Keith Law: Yes, and I’m not sure if that’s the right approach, or if they should do what they did with Song of the South, which is bury the movie below a million copies of the E.T. video game.

Oscar: All of the brouhaha regarding Jeter not getting 100% of votes has allowed me to realize just how much I don’t care about the HOF.
Keith Law: It’s so dumb. You get the same plaque with 75.00001% and with 100%.

Gary C: How good of a prospect is Neovli Marte for Seattle? What is his scouting report?
Keith Law: Another one for the top 100/org rankings next month.

Mark: EXTREMELY HAPPY to hear you’re going to be doing a podcast in the near future. Any chance we can get regular segments with Karabell? There’s still a Baseball Today-sized hole in my heart. #FreeBiasCat
Keith Law: I don’t know if ESPN would allow that, but of course I’d love to get the band back together.

Lee: I read a report that Triston Casas grew an inch and gained 10 pounds this offseason.  His bat seems legit but any chance he could stick at 3B?
Keith Law: For me, no. 1b only.

Sammy Sosa: Have you ever played Secret Hitler? Curious how the gaming community feels about it.
Keith Law: I hate the name and theme.
Keith Law: It’s just not funny.

Ben: If healthy, and that’s a big if, could Daulton Jeffries be a #4 starter?
Keith Law: TBH, I have no idea what he’ll look like when healthy. He was very good for a hot minute in college and then got hurt.

Chris: Has Julio Rodriguez passed kellenic as the mariners best prospect in your opinion?
Keith Law: Come on.

Matt W: The Mets wouldn’t have taken so much flack if they were quick and decisive with the move. They waited what, 3 days before making any comment at all, said there was gonna be a statement and then never gave one. Then, there was the ridiculous “I’m just here to talk about Mike Piazza Way” press gaggle the next day, followed by the news dropping a couple hours later. Even that wasn’t straightforward, did Beltran step down? Was it a mutual parting of ways? For all the things the Wilpons are terrible at, and they are numerous, PR/Comms is possibly the worst. So many self-inflicted wounds, even if they ultimately come to the correct decision.
Keith Law: Yes, they are PR-unsavvy, but in the end they got it right. I’m good with that. I’ll still mock the Wilpons for their incompetence, though.

Robert: True or false: the luxury tax penalties are toothless enough that it should never be a priority for the Cubs (or Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers) to get under the threshold if they have any realistic chance at the postseason.
Keith Law: True.

TP: Excited for your work on labor issues with The Athletic.  Apologies if this is too personal, but are you currently or have you been in a union? How might your experiences help shape your coverage?
Keith Law: I’m not now and have never been in one – never worked in a union shop. My parents didn’t either.

Joe: Do you have any favorite board game apps?
Keith Law: I ranked the top 25 for Vulture last year, and then ranked the 8 best new apps of 2019 for Ars Technica. Bear in mind the Carcassonne iOS app, #1 on the first list, is going away on March 1st as the developers’ license is expiring, so buy it now if you want it.

K: Just how good is Kumar Rocker? Strasburg/Harper tier or less?
Keith Law: Way less. That is some rarefied air there.

Nick: Over/Under 25 homers for Evan White in 2020?
Keith Law: I’ll take the under.

Luke: Why We Sleep is fascinating, thanks for the recommendation. In what ways, if any, has the book altered your sleep habits?
Keith Law: I try to be more rigorous about getting to bed on time and giving myself a sleep window of 8 hours. (I am not always successful.) I also am less likely to have a single drink on a weeknight, and I put room-darkening shades in my bedroom.

Aureliano Buendia: Keith, are you planning to watch Jojo Rabbit? I did it recently and it was so much better than expected considering the subject. I’m not saying it should win Best Picture but I think it is worthy of the nomination
Keith Law: Yes, maybe this weekend.

Dave: When do you play boardgames– evening, weekend afternoon, other?
Keith Law: Yes. I play online too – I played one of you this week, in fact. (Good game, reader person whose name I don’t know!)

Gunther Centralperk: Do you see any mechanical issues with Kershaw regarding his lack of a change-up? I really wish he’d work on it and get back to being close to his old self.
Keith Law: I’m missing something here. He’s never really used a changeup – Fangraphs has his highest rate at 5.5% in his first year – and there’s no mechanical issue here. He’s lost his fastball. His average velocity has dropped to a career low for two straight years. That’s his problem.

Robert: No real question…just wanted to point out how mind-blowing it is that the Ricketts family has used up every ounce of good will from the World Series win in just three years. They should’ve been heroes for life, but they’re already disliked as much as the Tribune company was.
Keith Law: It is rather astonishing. All they really had to do was keep the status quo. But I don’t think they care one iota about good will. They care about making more money.

Sean: Will the padres be able to find 500 ABs for trent grisham this year?
Keith Law: As the roster currently stands, yes.

Mike: I know many people ask for parenting advice.  A must have book for parents with children who are challenging, are easily frustrated, and exhibit temper issues is The Explosive Child.  Key theme from the book is thqt children behave well when they can, not when they want to.   Really helps parents better understand what our job is
Keith Law: Thank you. I’d be interested in that myself.

Matt W: What are the chances the one non-Jeter ballot was a blank ballot?
Keith Law: I suppose it’s possible but we had no blank ballots last year.

KF: Do you think the Twins will trade for an impact starter before the season starts, or wait until the trade deadline? What are some names to keep an eye on?
Keith Law: I don’t see any impact starters available in trade.

X-man: Mr. Keith Law, The latest Betts rumor seems ludicrous. “Major prospect haul” but not including any of their top 5?  Is their next group good enough for any combination to be worth it to Boston, even before the supposed poison pill of including Myers (even if including Myers also meant that Price was in the deal but just left out of the stories)?
Keith Law: If the Padres are taking the whole salary, sure – and while I probably wouldn’t do this, you could put together a good package of prospects from outside of the Padres’ top five. Morejon, Weathers, Miller, Baez, Arias – these are all really good prospects but not top five in that system.

Pat D: If Andujar is healthy enough, should he DH and Stanton play in left?  Or is Stanton best to just DH all the time anymore?  This isn’t really a major problem though, is it?
Keith Law: Depends on Stanton’s health, no?

Mat Ji: Did you ever explain to us why you maliciously changed this website so that some of us couldn’t access it via our phones?  For the record, that was probably the most hilarious criticism of you I have ever heard.
Keith Law: For folks who missed it, someone commented and accused me of blocking mobile users from seeing the site. There is an issue here, from something Hostgator did, that I’m trying to unravel, but the idea I would block an entire swath of the audience from the site is WTF.

DJ: Were you aware of any shenanigans going on with the center field restaurant “spying” rumors in toronto and would a gm be aware of it like in the case of houston
Keith Law: None of that was while I was there.

Chris: Favorite homemade condiment? I’m contemplating trying the XO sauce recipe from Serious Eats, and am struggling to make a decision.
Keith Law: I pickle onions regularly (also a Serious Eats recipe, I think). Homemade mayonnaise is the best. I haven’t made chimichurri in a while but it’s great and keeps a while with all the acid.

Matt W: Speaking of outdated disney+ offerings, my wife and I watched Davey Crockett the other night when we were babysitting after the kids went to sleep. I loved that movie as a kid but wow
Keith Law: Fortunately (?) I’ve never seen that.

Jason: Does Michel Baez have a future as a starter (I don’t mean to take any thunder from your prospect package)
Keith Law: Nonzero chance.

pakkap: the in-division hiccup is a problem, but assuming arenado is truly pushing his way out of coors after their baffling handling of him, is keibert ruiz/gonsolin/pederson not a totally equitable (even a bit too much given the opt out) package?
Keith Law: Seems like good value, if the Rockies believe Gonsolin fits their environment.

EG: Through listening to Chvrches and Broods (thanks to reading you), I came across Meg Myers. Have you listened to any of her stuff?
Keith Law: Her name seems familiar but as I look on Spotify none of this rings a bell.

Bill: Who in your opinion is the most underrated actor/actress out there? In my view, it’s Toni Collette, who can do just about any accent and is pretty adept at both comedy and drama. She’s been nominated only once for an Oscar.
Keith Law: Just sticking with Knives Out, I’d say Michael Shannon.

John: What do you think of the most recent Vampire Weekend or Bon Iver album?
Keith Law: I hate VW. Bon Iver doesn’t do much for me.

Stuckeyville: Re the Carcassone app, are the expansions worth it? Thanks
Keith Law: Some are. Traders/Builders and Inns/Cathedrals are my favorite in the physical game.

Dave: Would you buy a baseball team if you had the money to do so?
Keith Law: Sure, they’re great investments. But I’d hire baseball ops people and let them do their jobs.

Robert: Re: Vizquel/non-Rolen voters—I feel the same way about Vizquel/non-Andruw Jones voters. I’m not sure Jones is a HOFer…but if Vizquel is, then Jones is way over the line.
Keith Law: This is also true. There’s this weird bit of revisionism over Vizquel that bothers me because of what it says about our society – he was never viewed as an elite player while he played (he got ONE MVP vote in his entire career), and all objective data say he wasn’t close to Hall of Famer caliber. His supporters simply want to ignore the facts and rewrite history to suit their whims. That’s reprehensible.

Riveryanks: Didn’t notice if you put up a review of Lathe of Heaven. Curious on your thoughts.
Keith Law: Not her best.

Dave: Haven’t been to one of your book events previously, but hoping to make the DC one this spring. What’s the vibe? KLawchat live?
Keith Law: I think that’s a better question for folks who’ve been to one, but I do take a lot of questions and try to crack jokes and generally have a good time. No singing, though.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you as always for all of your questions. You can pre-order my next bookThe Inside Game, now via Harper Collins’ site or anywhere fine books are sold. I’ll try to keep the chats going the next few weeks but as I get busy writing the prospect rankings I might have to skip a week here or there. Enjoy your weekends!

The Two Popes.

Netflix’s The Two Popes – or, as my friend Will Leitch likes to call it, Coupla Popes! – is a showcase for two great, aged actors, Jonathan Pryce and Anthony Hopkins, playing the current and previous popes in conversation as Pope Benedict is about to step down as Pontiff and Jorge Bergoglio, now Pope Francis, tries to dissuade him through a wide-ranging conversation that covers almost the entire film. As a movie, it’s perfectly fine, often funny, generally thoughtful, a bit verbose, but also problematic in its portrayal of history. As a platform for the two actors, it’s quite good, with Pryce stealing much of the show with his performance and dedication to his accent.

The film is based on a play called The Pope that presents a largely fictionalized conversation between the two men, and that is a bit problematic, as the events are quite recent (mostly 2013) and the two men depicted are still alive. The script definitely brushes aside the very serious matter of the Catholic Church’s sex abuse scandal and Pope Benedict’s role in covering it up; it’s broached, but the characters discuss it and dispense with it. There’s even a fictional confession given by Benedict to Bergoglio, which I find deeply troubling given the role of penance and the Seal of the Confessional in Catholic doctrine; sure, it’s fake, but it feels like an invasion into the character of the erstwhile Pope to assume what he might have said in such a confession.

We get a brief look at the conclave where Joseph Ratzinger is selected as Pope over Bergoglio, who we see was a distant runner-up in the voting, and thus becomes Pope Benedict XVI. He resigned as Pope in 2013, the first such abdication of a pontiff’s own volition in over seven centuries; Bergoglio was selected by the next conclave to replace him, becoming Pope Francis. The bulk of the movie covers Bergoglio’s visit to the Vatican to resign as Cardinal, during which Benedict reveals he plans to resign as Pope, a conversation that reveals their philosophical and theological differences. That meandering dialogue gives us frequent flashbacks to Bergoglio’s youth and to a period in the 1970s when his actions and inactions led to the detention and torture of two priests under his command. The flashbacks are powerful, as are the scenes where Cardinal Bergoglio recalls his actions, and shows remorse; in their entirety, they’re the best parts of the film.

Those scenes are also the best moments for Jonathan Pryce, who is really superb as Bergoglio, right down to a credible Argentine accent – in contrast to Hopkins, who makes scant effort at a German accent. Pryce is a solid likeness for Bergoglio, which helps his performance, but he also infuses the character with emotional depth and a lot of the charm that has made the real-life Pope Francis so popular. He’s the more interesting character of the two in reality, and Pryce brings that to life on the screen. I think it’s the best thing he’s done since those Infiniti commercials. It’s a contrast to Hopkins, who is playing a rather uncharismatic character, and does so accurately, almost as if he was more focused on getting Benedict’s mannerisms and old-man’s gait more than his persona.

As an overall film, however, The Two Popes is a more than adequate, just a bit hollow in the aftermath. The script moves along, thanks in large part to the flashbacks, although it’s so dialogue-driven that there are definitely long stretches where you want something to happen. There are too many odd closeups of the two actors – we get it, they’re old – but the re-creation of the Sistine Chapel is marvelous. There’s also quite a bit of humor in the movie, more than I would have expected and probably a lot more than there was in any real conversation between the two men. It was after watching it, however, that I realized how little the script bothered with the sex abuse scandal that has engulfed the Church for two decades, one that may have contributed to Benedict’s abdication and that exists because of the choices of men like him. Without that, it feels like there’s a giant elephant in the room and these two old men refuse to see it.

American Factory.

American Factory might be more famous now for who produced it than for its content; it’s the first film from Higher Ground Productions, Barack and Michelle Obama’s production company, which has a deal with Netflix (where you can find this film). It’s also nominated for an Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature, with a strong case for the honor because of how much work clearly went into this endeavor and how timely its themes are – globalization, automation, anti-union sentiment, and people voting against their own interests.

The movie starts with the closing of a long-running General Motors plant in Moraine, Ohio, which had operated for more than a half-century and provided thousands of jobs for local residents. About seven years after its closure, the Chinese conglomerate Fuyao acquired and reopened the plant as Fuyao Glass, a move that was initially welcomed by the community for the jobs it would re-create. Fuyao also brought over hundreds of employees from China to try to integrate their operations and improve the efficiency of the new plant, but over time the Chinese management’s practices, including much lower hourly pay, dubious safety procedures, and a staunch anti-union policy, begin to alienate the American workers, even though they and their Chinese counterparts have established stronger relations on the factory floor.

American Factory documents the entire process over seven years, from acquisition to re-opening, through a failed unionization vote, with a level of access that seems comical given how often the Chinese managers essentially confess on camera to violating American labor and work safety laws. There’s no question here who the bad guys are – it’s primarily Fuyao’s billionaire founder and chairman Cao Dewang and a few of his lackeys, who think American workers are lazy and have “fat fingers,” and who go out of their way to crush any attempts to unionize, a bit ironic from a company founded in the ostensibly still-communist country of the People’s Republic of China. (Workers of the world, take what we give you!) The managers openly retaliate against workers involved in organizing or encouraging people to vote yes, while the firm brings in expensive consultants to lecture employees on how there’s actually zero difference between good things and bad things and they should all vote no against their own interests so the billionaire can make more money.

The film may have a clear tilt in the direction of the American workers, but that doesn’t make it less powerful, and the filmmakers manage to keep the documentary more interesting by with some of the funniest bits you’ll see in a movie this year. None is more cringe-comedic than the scenes of the Fuyao company celebration, with a half-dozen Moraine workers flown to China to participate, including a choreographed routine of a corporate song that sounds like a mediocre pop track but has lyrics that sound more like the East German anthem from Top Secret, with lines like “Noble sentiments are transparent!” amidst blind praise of the company and its leaders. Many scenes of culture shock in both directions are simultaneously funny and alarming, as they underline the magnitude of the gap between the two nations’ differing ideas on work (one Chinese manager can’t understand why Americans won’t work six or seven days a week) and ‘loyalty.’ The ultimate outcome in such cases will always favor capital over labor; the workers here try to organize and fail in the face of the company’s overt and expensive efforts to convince them unionizing would somehow be bad for them*, and Fuyao’s vengeance is swift. Paying the workers less than half of what they made under General Motors isn’t enough for Fuyao; workers apparently should say “thank you, sir, may I have another?” while accepting lower pay and reduced safety conditions.

* The economics of unionization are certainly more complex than just “unions good!” but unions almost invariably benefit members; negative economic effects are far more likely to hit consumers or non-member workers.

There’s no narration in American Factory, and no artificial framing device; the Fuyao executives are indicted by their own words, often said as if they forgot the cameras were running or that they were saying such things in a country where workers have more rights than they do in China (for now). The film is full of amusing vignettes to provide some levity, but the slope of this story’s curve is negative and logarithmic. It’s a powerful piece with a call to action and no action available.

Stick to baseball, 1/18/20.

I’ve written five pieces for the Athletic so far over the two weeks since I joined. In reverse chronological order, they are a ranking of the ten best prospects to change organizations this winter; a breakdown of the Josh Donaldson signing; a breakdown of last week’s Rays-Cardinals trade; notes on what I look for when evaluating players; and my introductory post. I also held a Klawchat this week.

Over at Paste, I reviewed The Taverns of Tiefenthal, the newest game from Kennerspiel des Jahres winner Wolfgang Warsch, who also designed The Mind, That’s Pretty Clever!, and The Quacks of Quedlinburg, all of which are quite good.

My second book, The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves, is due out on April 21st from Harper Collins, and you can pre-order it now via their site or wherever fine books are sold. You can also sign up for my free email newsletter for even more non-baseball content.

And now, the links…

  • Longreads first: Slate has the story of a credible allegation of rape against three Mets from the spring of 1991, with Doc Gooden, Daryl Boston, and Vince Coleman all accused. None was ever charged.
  • The Root and the Young Turks detail outright racism in the South Bend police force under Pete Buttigieg. The details herein, and Mayor Pete’s unwillingness to answer basic questions about them, are quite damning.
  • Did an Oxford classics professor steal and sell ancient pieces of papyrus, including one that would be the oldest known piece of the gospels, to the billionaire owners of Hobby Lobby?  (Also, how can you be a billionaire and a devout Christian? I’m reasonably sure Jesus said those two things could not be true at the same time.)
  • The New Yorker looks at a woman who can’t feel physical or emotional pain due to a genetic mutation, and whether the extent to which we feel pain is really an essential part of being human.
  • The New York Times describes how a recently-deceased real estate ‘star’ lied about her entire biography.
  • Peter Hotez, author of Vaccines Did Not Cause Rachel’s Autism, writes about how sick you’re going to get if you catch various vaccine-preventable diseases. It’s not pretty, and it’s all the more argument for tightening vaccination laws for schoolchildren.
  • Here’s a shocker: Gwyneth Paltrow’s new GOOP show on Netflix is a mixture of pseudoscience, bullshit, and tedium, including an episode with a so-called “energy healer” (which is not real) and another with a self-proclaimed psychic (also not real).
  • Michigan state senator Peter Lucido, who has delusions of governorship, told a woman journalist trying to interview him that a group of high school boys “could have a lot of fun” with her. As of Friday, he’s issued a half-assed apology, but remains in office.
  • The New Yorker talks to the two people behind the great @NJGov twitter account.
  • Writing for VICE, Laura Wagner (ex-Deadspin) writes about the Facebook ‘sponsored post’ fiasco at Teen Vogue.
  • A British Columbia court ruled that two young children must be vaccinated over their mother’s objections. The mother tried to cite one of the most vocal anti-vaccine cranks on Twitter, Toni Bark, who claimed the measles wasn’t a highly contagious disease (it’s considered the most or second-most contagious virus humans can catch).
  • Perhaps “cocktails” of multiple antibiotics aren’t as good of an idea for the long term as we thought, as one new study shows that they may accelerate antibiotic resistance.
  • Tabatha Southey writes for McLean’s about Watergate, my #3 game of 2019, and what a future board game of the Donald Trump presidency and impeachment might look like.
  • I’ve got four new board game Kickstarters to share this week. First is the one I tweeted about on Tuesday, Restoration Games’ Return to Dark Tower, which is already clear of $2.25 million pledged as of Friday afternoon. It’s an update to the 1981 cult classic, and I was hooked when I saw the demo at PAX Unplugged.
  • Next is AlderQuest, an area-control game from Rock Manor Games and Mike Gnade (Set a Watch, Brass Empire). Rock Manor pulled the original Kickstarter from before the holidays and restarted it; it’s about 2/3 of the way to its funding goal as I write this. Full disclosure: I met Mike this week to play an upcoming Rock Manor title, Lawyer Up, as he lives a stone’s throw from me.
  • Leder Games has the newest game from designer Cole Wehrle (Root, Pax Pamir), Oath: Chronicles of Empire and Exile, already more than 13 times past its initial goal.
  • Vesuvius Media has a Kickstarter up for Pacific Rails, a route-building/worker-placement game based on the completion of the first transcontinental railroad in 1869.
  • Finally, here’s an intriguing game of dirty popes: Habeamus, which the publishers describe as “a game for ending 2-4 friendships. This is the farthest from its goal of these five Kickstarters right now.

Corpus Christi.

This week’s Academy Award nominations didn’t include many surprises anywhere – at least, not if you assume the worst of the Academy – and many categories already seem like their winners are locks, including Parasite as the Best International Feature Film, which would make it the first South Korean winner of that award (it’s already the first nominee). Three of the other nominees were widely expected – Pedro Almodóvar’s Pain and Glory, which also landed a Best Actor nod for Antonio Banderas; the acclaimed Honeyland, which doubled up with a nod for Best Documentary Feature; and the French entry, Les Misérables, which isn’t based on the novel, and won the Prix du Jury at Cannes last May.

There was one surprise in the category, however – the Polish entry, Corpus Christi, which was at least less widely-known or reviewed than some of the other submissions, but is an absolute stunner of a story, one that manages to pack substantial themes into a modest plot. Powered by an incredible lead performance by Bartosz Bielenia as Daniel, a paroled convict who wants to enter the priesthood but is told by the prison chaplain that no seminary will accept a convicted felon. When he arrives at his assigned job at a sawmill in a small town on the other side of Poland, a chance encounter with Marta, a girl he seems to want to impress, leads him to pretend to be the new priest temporarily assigned to the village while their main priest is away.

It turns out that his timing is fortuitous for the town, as they’re still reeling from a tragedy that took the lives of seven people and that has created a rift between the families of the victims, with recriminations mostly headed towards one widow whose husband is blamed for the accident and who has been ostracized and targeted as a result. Daniel, meanwhile, fully embraces his role as priest, at first borrowing some ideas from the prison chaplain’s sermons but quickly finding his own voice, expressing his own faith with elements of Jesus’s secular philosophy, a little bit of primal scream therapy, and a powerful ability to connect with people that he didn’t even know he had.

There are points in Mateusz Pacewicz’s script where it feels like we might be heading down familiar territory – maybe this is the time when Daniel gets caught, or maybe the town experiences a spiritual awakening thanks to Daniel and everyone is redeemed. Nothing is that simple, not in the plot as a whole, and not in the subplots like that of the accident or the role of the power-hungry mayor (who owns the sawmill). Daniel’s character is rich and complex, and his transformations reflect a more basic truth about how environments affect people’s ability to change or simply to let their better selves show through. The townsfolk themselves are also well-drawn, and at times inscrutable, closing ranks even when they know they’re wrong, happy to mouth the words in church but not to live it even when Daniel reminds them of the messages of Christ’s love for mankind or of the need to forgive. The script delivers so many powerful scenes, but the one where the victims’ family members are confronted with the hate mail they sent the widow particularly stands out for its impact and how Daniel and Eliza stand in the face of such animosity.

Bielenia’s performance drives this film, and had anyone actually seen this in 2019 – if the film had been in English – he would have been more than deserving of nominations and awards for what he does for Daniel. He’s capable of grand emotions, including the rage he shows in some of the scenes in prison, but his performance is at its most powerful when he slows everything down, even when that’s an indicator that Daniel is in a bit over his head and trying to draw upon his faith to choose the right words or actions. He’s a more effective priest for his inexperience, as his sermons are more authentic, but those scenes had the potential to become trite if overplayed by the actor; Bielenia shows a restraint throughout the film, even when Daniel is confronted with threats to his secret and to his person, that makes the performance more credible and more compelling.

Director Jan Komasa particularly nails the landing of Corpus Christi, which ends in mostly unexpected fashion, including multiple shots of Daniel as he exits the church for the last time or in the final shot of the film. It’s ultimately an uplifting story, but rich with the complexity of actual people who are trying to reconcile their unspeakable grief with their faith, and who default to their baser instincts in a failed attempt to cope with their rage. Parasite is going to win the Oscar, but if the nomination gets more people to watch Corpus Christi when it’s released in the U.S. next month, so much the better. It deserves a wider audience than it might otherwise have gotten.

Klawchat 1/16/20.

Starting at 1 pm ET. I have two new posts up at the Athletic – a breakdown of the Twins signing Josh Donaldson and a brief look at the ten best prospects to change teams this offseason. My latest board game review for Paste covers The Taverns of Tiefenthal, a great new midweight title from the designer of The Mind, That’s Pretty Clever!, and The Quacks of Quedlinburg.


Keith Law: We already did this. Klawchat.

JR: What are your thoughts on Beltran’s involvement with the Astros scandal? Should he be fired as Mets manager? Or does the fact that he was a player at the time and not management absolve him and he shouldn’t be fired?
Keith Law: I’m not sure why players were absolved en masse, but Beltrán’s status as player at the time doesn’t exculpate him, and yes, I think the Mets should move on.

addoeh: Which would have been worse for the Astros, losing their 1st and 2nd round picks for the next two drafts or being frozen out of the international market for two years?
Keith Law: I think the draft.

Wyatt : A different type of Question for You: Do you Prefer light or dark mode on your iPhone?
Keith Law: Light mode is substantially better for your eyes.

Mike: Hi, Keith! I write quite often for my occupation and was wondering what laptop / computer you prefer when writing?
Keith Law: I write on both my windows laptop and my iPad, depending on where I am and what I’m writing.

Greg: Hey, Keith. So glad you’re at the Athletic now. Will you still be able to do ESPN hits though? I know you just left, but there are still people from the Athletic on there all the time (though I can’t think of many who went straight from ESPN to the Athletic).
Keith Law: There’s nothing preventing me from doing so, but then again, they just put a part-time MLB team employee on to comment on an issue that touches the team that employs them, so … maybe not?

Mark: People follow you for your strong opinions. You were a huge supporter of Cora, are you disappointed that someone you thought so highly of, was a large part of this whole sign stealing fiasco? Or, is it more, oh well it was just my guy that got caught?
Keith Law: I am disappointed. I advocated for Alex for years, publicly and privately, because I believed he’d be excellent at the job. I never once expected an outcome like this – if you’d asked me about his integrity at the time I would have said I had zero concerns about it whatsoever.

CyMature: Hi Keith. Has Alex Kirillof “gone backwards?” Injuries? Out of shape?
Keith Law: Uh, what? This is arrant nonsense.

Steve: Granted, everyone needs more pitching but how do you see things shaking out for the White Sox rotation in 2020? Keuchel and Giolito seem like they should give 6+ most of the time. But Lopez gonna Lopez, Gio Gonzalez had a dead arm most of last year, Kopech is going to have some sort of post-TJS innings cap and Cease is sort of a wild card. Tandem starts part of the solution?
Keith Law: Don’t know that I buy your pessimism on Gio, but I agree Lopez remains ill-suited to starting, and they might need another fifth-starter/depth guy. I don’t think it’s out of the question that Stiever makes some starts for them this year.

Greg: A vocal minority of Phillies fans seem to read that Maikel Franco is in FL working in cages and getting to know his new KC teammates and think that THIS is HIS YEAR. Especially now that “he’s free of Kapler and his launch angle nonsense.” This is nuts, right? He’s been in the majors 5 years. And it’s not like he didn’t play for two other managers before Kapler.
Keith Law: That’s nuts. Franco’s issue was never launch angle-related. His approach hasn’t improved since double-A.

Matt: You’re transparent about prospects you whiff on. How about a boardgame. What game did you review too harshly or what game grew on you over time? Any game you reviewed too generously In hindsight? Appreciate your game reviews. Currently playing Imhotep Duel heavily thanks to your review.
Keith Law: I was definitely too high on Bruges and Skyward on first plays. Bruges in particular started to annoy me the more I played (online) because you’re so at the mercy of the cards you draw. It’s a shame as I think there’s a good idea inside there somewhere.

TomBruno23: In your review of Dark Money you mentioned not buying Georgia Pacific products. What about investing? I lean to the left on many issues, but also have holdings in Exxon Mobil and who know what else in some of these mutual funds. Can I still sleep well at night?
Keith Law: For folks who didn’t read that review, I don’t believe individual ‘boycotts’ like that accomplish anything but to make the individual feel better. I try not to buy products from companies owned by Koch industries, I’d never shop at Menard’s, etc. I wouldn’t make direct purchases of stocks in such companies, but I don’t think investing passively in them via index funds is morally questionable. YMMV.

Burton Ernie: Do you see Hinch, Cora or Lunhow (and possibly Beltran) working again in baseball? I think teams wouldn’t want to deal with the fallout.
Keith Law: Yes, maybe (depending on the penalty), unlikely, in that order.

Moe Mentum: Which repeal of an archaic democratic system is the bigger no-brainer – the electoral college, or Iowa/New Hampshire always launching primary season?
Keith Law: Well, both, but I think the Iowa/NH thing would be easier to uproot.

David: Should KeBryan Hayes start the year as Pittsburgh’s starting 3B or does he need more time in AAA? I feel like he is currently the team’s best option, but didn’t know if he was ready yet. (I say all of this knowing they will probably play with his service time and hold him down until July.)
Keith Law: Glove is ready, bat perhaps not, but I also don’t see the harm in starting him now and letting him work with the big league coaches, since he has a full year in AAA already.

Tom: What can a healthy Jordan Montgomery look like?
Keith Law: Fifth starter.

Moe Mentum: What’s Adam Haseley’s ceiling, and has it improved since his major league debut last season?
Keith Law: His ceiling would not have changed just by reaching the majors. A player’s ceiling is his ultimate outcome, a best case scenario based on what he is now and what scouts or analysts project him to become. Getting to the majors doesn’t change that.

mike: If you were the Wilpons (thankfully for you you aren’t), what would you do about Beltran?
Keith Law: Part ways with him.

Ron: Hi Keith- If they would be so inclined, what would it take for the Twins to get Gray from the Rockies? Would Rosario, Gordon, Larnach, Rooker do it or would you have to include a Graterol or Balazovic instead? Thanks
Keith Law: I can’t imagine the Rockies deal Gray and don’t demand one of the Twins’ top four prospects.

Ben: Hi Klaw. With the Donaldson upgrade, should the Twins still look to trade for a pitcher right now? Or, at this point, would it make more sense for them to roll with what they have to start the year, hope they can compete in the regular season like last year, and look to upgrade for “impact” pitching at the deadline when they see how the team shakes out?
Keith Law: They’ve added a lot of pitching already, just not famous pitching.

Dr. Bob: Hi, Keith. The Astros have had a problem with their circle-the-wagons culture and lack of transparency. So they’re looking at Buck Showalter to manage?
Keith Law: Well, if you want someone to come in and impose order, he’s a good choice.

BigDaddeh: Do you think Bernie said a woman couldn’t win?
Keith Law: I think people who’ve defended him, claiming he didn’t/couldn’t have said that, are basing it on their fandom rather than any rational arguments. This coming out presented nothing but downside for Warren, and I think it’s imperfectly analogous to how we treat women who accuse powerful men of harassment and are disbelieved because the accusations are inconvenient. (Meanwhile, The Met Philly is hosting Louis C.K.’s new tour. I’ll cross that venue off my list.)

Matt: Cora is getting a lifetime ban isn’t he?
Keith Law: This is my fear, given the delay in announcing it.

Youngman: What are thoughts on Kyle Wright? Just seems like he’s not meeting expectations and for his age should already be more established.
Keith Law: I don’t agree with anything in that second sentence, sorry.

Alex: What is Emerson Hancock’s upside? Potential ace, Top of rotation, etc– and what is holding him back (other than health)
Keith Law: Best or second-best college starter in the class. Above-average or better starter upside. Health is the major concern.

Ed: Will you reveal your Hall ballot this year? Presumably on the Athletic, if you do …
Keith Law: That is/was my plan.

Aaron C.: Been eyeing pork belly at Costco. You’ve made homemade bacon before, yes? Ruhlman’s recipe from “20”? Any tips/lessons learned?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s the recipe I used, hardest part was maintaining the temperature of the smoker (keeping it from varying too much either way).

ck: Reading Bud Selig’s book. He constantly insists teams were losing money. I know he obviously has his own angle, but could this be true?
Keith Law: No, it’s not true, but I suppose if you repeat a lie often enough eventually you start to believe it.

Guest: And now Beltran is stepping down. Who do the Mets hire now?
Keith Law: Heh, happened right after I started this chat, so I didn’t see it. It’s the right move. Also, this is unrelated, but Beltrán had absolutely no experience relevant to the job. The Mets could end up better off in the end, assuming they hire someone who has some relevant experience.

Chris: I thought the Nats pivoting to Harris and Hudson was solid. They keep cheap, IMO.
Keith Law: They stay flexible, but I don’t think they’ve done poorly and wouldn’t say they were “cheap,” not after they paid to keep Strasburg.

Dave: Which CTY site did you attend? (Dickinson ’95-’97 here)
Keith Law: Franklin & Marshall, ’86-88.

Tyler: Do you think Mitch Haniger is worth a Top 100 prospect in trade?
Keith Law: Probably.

Jason: Thoughts on former colleague Jessica Mendoza’s comments this morning? Should she have to choose between being an ESPN analyst or being a Mets rep?
Keith Law: Yes, she should. You can’t do both. I don’t think she should have commented this morning, and I don’t think the producer(s) in question should have even asked her to do so.
Keith Law: I can’t work for a team. It would present me with endless, insoluble conflicts of interest.

John S: Is predicting pitchers’ health in five years is such a futile exercise that the Padres should just call up Gore?
Keith Law: I mean, you’re not wrong. I don’t know if you’re right, but I know you’re not wrong.

Dave: Can you expand on your answer re: loss of draft picks vs. loss of access to int’l market? Essentially, why do you think draft picks would be dearer?
Keith Law: Those players are two to five years older than July 2nd players and thus much closer to major-league value.

rufreshterp: Can Carter Kieboom play the outfield or is he stuck at 2B/3B? I’ve heard some scouts question his eyes in the outfield (ability to pick up the ball off the bat) so don’t know if OF is viable for him going forward.
Keith Law: Has he played the OF enough to say that? I don’t think so. He’ll be fine at 2b or 3b. I don’t think he can handle SS at all.

Dungeon Master: KLaw, really excited to see you at The Athletic, especially as the timing lined up perfectly with the expiration of my ESPN+ subscription.
Keith Law: That was a big part of my decision. I told my agent we have to delay this until Dungeon Master’s subscription to ESPN+ expires.

Nick: As an Indians fan, am I just off my rocker to expect Ethan Hankins to have a breakout season that launches him into the top 100?
Keith Law: I would bet against that right now.

Bill: Who was punished worse by MLB, the Braves for their signing infractions or the Astros for cheating in games?
Keith Law: Coppolella’s punishment seems even more egregious now with these punishments. Of course, he was accused of violating rules designed to keep owners from having to spend more money on players, and that is an eternal sin in the church of baseball.

Aaron C.: Please rank, in order of deliciousness, pancakes, waffles and French toast.
Keith Law: Waffles. You can have the other two if I get all the waffles.

Scott: Any plans to come through Louisville again this college baseball season?
Keith Law: Not on my current schedule but that can always be subject to change. Nashville and Athens are on the schedule, though.

Bryan: What are your Top 3 board games for families with young kids?
Keith Law: Depends on how young, but if you’re looking for stuff for kids old enough to play family games (not just kid games), I’d say Ticket to Ride, Splendor, and King of Tokyo.

TP: Since you are no longer working for ESPN, any plans to move out of Delaware?
Keith Law: Those two things are not related at all.
Keith Law: And no, I’m not moving.

Guest: What do you make of thr moved St Louis has made. They’ve taken talent away from the major league roster without really replacing it. Are they looking to improve this year or eyeing the future? And for the record i Dont think they will add Arenado. Just not a move they typically make
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re done.

JC: Your Donaldson writeup made the Braves current situations seem…bleak at best, but if you are the Rockies, are you even interested in Riley as part of a return? Is he the type of cheap guy with upside you
Keith Law: Colorado could certainly put together a strong package of Atlanta prospects – Waters/Pache plus two of the better arms plus one of the two catchers – that would make the deal worth their while. Riley isn’t necessary.

Bruce: I know you are a fan of Agatha Christie. Having never read any of her books, which ones would you suggest I read?
Keith Law: I think Death on the Nile is the first Poirot novel … I’d start there. It’s not necessary but it does introduce the character.

Nolan: Which is more likely for 2020: Wil Myers has an above average year at the plate, Franchy Cordero plays more than 100 games, or Manuel Margot improves his offense enough to become a 3 win player?
Keith Law: Myers least likely of the three.

Zach D: Trump tax cuts saved the 6 biggest banks $32billion lol (https://news.yahoo.com/trump-tax-cut-hands-32-171229065.html)
Keith Law: Just as his supporters intended, I’m sure.

Jason: I initially thought absolving the players was utter nonsense, but it did resonate that many of the players are not on the Astros anymore. If you punish the player, you’re punishing other teams, including teams that will play the Astros this year. I’m not sure how you solve that problem. What did you have in mind?
Keith Law: Why couldn’t you just fine the players? How does that punish their new employers?

Darren: Now that the Joker movie has won some awards and nominated in many categories for the Oscars, are you interested in seeing it? It’s similar to Black Panther that it is not just good for a comic book movie, it’s a great movie.
Keith Law: I will see it for completeness’ sake, but I don’t believe that it’s a “great movie.” I guess we’ll see.

TP: How many of the players on your Top 100 prospects list will you have evaluated in person?
Keith Law: It’s usually around 70, with some variance of course.

Tony: Keith, a real draft question to put our expectations in perspective. I have a draft eligible son here in Wisconsin. Currently theres snow and 25 degrees. He’s a RHP and we know how the cold effects pitchers arms. We are all aware of Gavin Lux and think his situation is fantastic for him, his family, and our state. However my concern is that his draft result is anomaly. Wondering with your pro background, considering the climate, the likelyhood of upper level scouts coming to games, and the lack of good “looks” for my son due to the snow, and no directors coming to see him until May, what is the reality of him having a true shot of being drafted within the first couple rounds? My concern is the deck is really stacked against him with things out of his control. Even if he is as good/better than another pitcher his age from FL or CA, I worry by the time an executive comes to see him in May that it is too late to warrant a top 2 round selection. Therefore our only hope is a potential overpay later on. True?
Keith Law: Lux, Kelenic, and Rortvedt were all Wisconsin HS kids who went on day one in the last four years. I don’t know who your son is, obviously, so I can’t comment on his outlook, but if he’s already on scouts’ radar now, he’ll be seen. My concern would be if he wasn’t that well known enough now that teams aren’t already planning to see him, since the window to scout a player in the tundra is pretty short.

Don Gately: Any plans to read Trust Exercise?
Keith Law: I don’t really plan to read many books far in advance … that’s a possible Pulitzer winner, so maybe I’ll read it. I’m just finishing up Michael Kinch’s Between Hope and Fear: A History of Vaccines and Human Immunity, which also explains how anti-vaxxers are the worst people on earth.

Bryan: Is Nolan Jones a .300/.400/.500 guy at peak or is that overly optimistic?
Keith Law: That’s really optimistic.

Daniel: Rough day for Puerto Rican managers
Keith Law: Ugh, I didn’t even think of that, but yes, it is. Bad week for diversity in a field that needed it, too.

Thomas: Hi Keith;
Congrats on your move to The Athletic (and a bonus for me since I already subscribe). Since I think it went down just as your ESPN contract was finishing, I didn’t see you do any write-up on the Jays’ signing of Ryu. Curious about your thoughts on it. Thanks!
Keith Law: Great move. I was technically on vacation when that happened – my last work day at ESPN was 12/19, then I used some vacation days and had the holidays, so we wouldn’t get the weird situation of me writing for ESPN on Monday and then showing up at the Athletic three days later or something.

Mike S: HI Keith, Do you believe trammel or grisham can be an everyday CF? The Padres seem to believe so, while the public opinion greatly differs.
Keith Law: Centerfield? They don’t think that. And I don’t either. Trammell doesn’t have the arm for it and Grisham definitely doesn’t have the range.

Aaron: Given 600 AB this year, you would put the Austin Riley strikeout total at ___.
Keith Law: 200+, but I don’t think he gets 600 AB.
Keith Law: I’d feel better about Camargo splitting the difference between 2018 and 2019 than I would about Riley hitting better enough in the majors to justify playing him.

Lars: What is a gender-neutral replacement for sir/ma’am? I know it’s a little dated, but I live in an area where it’s common to use those terms and I’d like to find a compromise (show respect, but not in a gendered way).
Keith Law: That’s an interesting question – I don’t know the answer.

Matt: Beltran is gone. Rosenthal reported it 5 min ago
Keith Law: Bear in mind that I see questions here often several minutes after you post them – I’m 23 minutes behind in the queue right now.

Don Gately: Holding hope that Walker gets the HoF nod this year?
Keith Law: I would love to see that. I voted for him.

Scherzers_Blue_Eye: The Mets get a lot of flack, but how poorly run are the Rockies, already looking to deal Arenado a year after his mega-deal?
Keith Law: They’re probably the front office with whose moves and strategy I disagree most right now. Not saying I’m right, by any stretch, but that I think I don’t understand what they’re doing, at least more so than I do for other orgs.

Noah: Why wohld the Rays give Matthew Liberatore up seemingly so easily. Any red flags?
Keith Law: No red flags. I’ve looked into it.

Extra Spicy: With three managerial openings and Dusty Baker still wanting to manage, do you think he gets one of the jobs? And do you think he’ll be good at it?
Keith Law: Given where we are in the calendar, yes, I do, and I would like to think – given his improvement each stop – he would indeed be good at it.

John: Nolan Arenado has a OPS of 770 to 880 away from Coors the past 3 yrs w/ a batting avg around 260-275. Does that mean he’s a Moustakas or Chapman offensive type talent if he gets traded?
Keith Law: There’s 25 years of data now that you can’t just look at the road stats of Rockies’ hitters to project what they’ll do away from Coors (or Mile High). I think he’ll continue to hit at a well above-average level.

Kevin: Can we get Jim Leyland back as a manager just to get shots of him smoking cigarettes in the dugout?
Keith Law: He’d probably be Juuling.

Jeff: Which Corbin will have the better 2020 as a starter – Burnes or Martin? Patrick will obviously top the list.
Keith Law: Still very high on Martin when he returns, but that probably won’t be in 2020. Burnes I think has a mechanical adjustment to make to get back to where he was in 2018, but I don’t see any reason he can’t do so.

Grant: Judas Priest got passed over for the Hall of Fame. I mean come on…
Keith Law: The R&R Hall is kind of a joke. It’s like if the Baseball Hall didn’t have the writers vote, and just used the crony committees for every selection. Priest, Pat Benatar, Motorhead, and Soundgarden were all snubbed and all have excellent cases (Soundgarden especially as influencers, and I guess Benatar for similar reasons as the rare woman in rock, although I’ll never get over how bad the “Love is a Battlefield” video is).

Matt W: Any chance Eduardo Perez would still take the Mets job? Otherwise it seems like it’ll be Jeff Wilpon as Mr. Manager
Keith Law: I’d support that.

Larry: Fangraphs mentioned Corbin Carroll’s exit velocity being surprisingly high. Do you think he has 25+ home run upside? If so, that probably makes him a superstar, no?
Keith Law: He might be a superstar, yes. He has more power than people expect given his height. I had him #4 in the draft class for a reason (that reason being I think he’s a star).

addoeh: If you gave me a choice for “Emerson Hancock, college baseball pitcher or signer of the Declaration of Independence” I would have chosen the latter.
Keith Law: I swear I made that exact joke to Emma Span the other day.
Keith Law: Three of the four 1-1 candidates have great names. Hancock is one. Spencer Torkelson is another. Austin Martin is practically a British luxury car brand. Poor JT Ginn is so ordinary in comparison.

Ridley: Do you watch any online/YouTube cooking shows? We’ve been, um, binging “Binging with Babish” and “What’s Eating Dan” and I find myself enjoying them far more than anything that’s being broadcast these days.
Keith Law: I haven’t – the only cooking show I’ve watched in the last year is GBBO.

Robert: Watching Luis Robert, I am impressed by how hard he plays (scoring from 2nd on a sac fly, beating out infield grounders, etc.). If he wasn’t so physically gifted, would he be more likely to get the “grinder” label?
Keith Law: Well, that’s one reason he’s not tabbed as a “grinder,” but there’s a more prominent reason I can think of…

Dan: Unless Costco has become a purveyor of high-quality meat, I would really suggest not purchasing pork belly there. Find a local small producer and support them. Yes it will be quite a bit more expensive, but meat should be. There’s a reason most of humanity didn’t eat it in large quantities until pretty recently.
Keith Law: I missed that but yes, I don’t buy much red meat these days anyway, but when I do it’s from Whole Foods or a local butcher. That’s a privilege I have, of course, but also I’d rather spend more per pound but buy less of it in total.

Drew_Tomlinson: Where do you think board games go from here? Already some discussion the bubble is bursting.
Keith Law: I haven’t heard any such discussion. I do think there are too many games getting released, but that’s not the same thing; the level of demand is nowhere close to its potential.

Mike: Is organic fruit BS ?
Keith Law: I mean, it’s organic, it’s just not any better for you. Buy what tastes best. That’s probably local; it might be organic but doesn’t have to be. I think organic makes the most difference in eggs, to be honest; unless you can get eggs from a local farm organic eggs will probably give you the highest quality (especially the strongest membrane around the yolk, so they stay intact while cooking).

Dave: Losing their 1st and 2nd round picks effectively tanks their entire drafts, right? Something like 60% of the total slot $ is tied up in those two picks.
Keith Law: Yes, teams that have had this situation recently have gotten nothing from their drafts: the Cubs in 2016 and Cardinals in 2017 had zero day-one picks between them, and neither has produced a big leaguer or a significant prospect yet.

Matt: Favorite Richard Russo book?
Keith Law: 1. Empire Falls 2. Straight Man 3. Nobody’s Fool 4. The Risk Pool

KT: do you plan on watching 1917?
Keith Law: I plan to see the remaining four Best Picture nominees I haven’t seen – that, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, and Ford v. Ferrari – even though I can’t say I’m terribly excited about any of them. I just like to talk about the awards, and to do that you have to see all or most of the nominees. I will see all the international & animated nominees too.

Matt: Chris Shaw anything more than replacement-level in San Fran?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Jake: Do you find any benefit from self-journaling?
Keith Law: I have never done so, sorry.

Matt: Mendoza just released a statement saying that being an employee of the Mets doesn’t shape her opinion LOL. She must be reading the chat.
Keith Law: The criticism of those comments has been very widespread.

Chris: Hi Keith, Based on initial pro scouting looks are their any recent draft picks that you have heard being ranked higher than where they were picked last summer?
Keith Law: You’ll see in a month.
Keith Law: Actually it might be the week of 2/24, rather than 2/17. It’s my editors’ call but I believe it’ll be the former (later).

Mark: What do you see as the most likely role for Jazz Chisholm?
Keith Law: Star at shortstop.

Ben Z: Florence Pugh is now signed up to be in a bunch of Marvel movies. Let us wallow in sadness.
Keith Law: Well, good for her for getting paid, I guess.

Nolan: Keith, I live in a capitol city with truly dismal bagel options. I’ve toyed around with the idea of trying to make my own (on a small scale, at least at first) but ideally I’d like to replicate Montreal style bagels, which need a wood oven. Do you know of any way to replicate that process without actually having a wood oven?
Keith Law: I have made NY-style bagels with a baking soda solution for boiling (no lye, that seemed excessive) and was happy with the results, although I clearly need work on shaping.

Turner : Hi Keith. I’m leading an after school board game club and would like to add a few games from your list. Any suggestions for 10-14 year olds that can be played in an hour or less?
Keith Law: Any of the games I mentioned above would be good for this group. You could expand a bit with Carcassonne, Wingspan (if you can find it), Pandemic, New Bedford, Sagrada, Azul.

Will: Favorite Rush era?
Keith Law: I don’t think of them in terms of eras; I thought the Chronicles two-disc greatest hits set was incredible, but didn’t listen to anything after Roll the Bones (which was not good).

Jay: Proper response to Grant’s R&R HOF comment was that if they think they can keep Priest out they’ve got another thing coming (sorry)
Keith Law: Nice.

Guest: What is your favorite restaurant in the Phoenix area? -Tom J. Gilbert AZ
Keith Law: The Hillside Spot, Crepe Bar, FnB.

Porker: Not to mention, this administration removed quality standards on pork, so all the more important to know where it’s sourced.
Keith Law: The rollbacks in food quality, food safety, and environmental regulations should be the ideal talking point for whoever the Democratic candidate is, because those rules affect every single American, and rollbacks disproportionately hurt those less well-off who lack the resources or even the options that others have (to, say, buy meat at Whole Foods).

Mike Rizzo: If I offer Rutledge, Kieboom amd say tres barrera get me Kris Bryant?
Keith Law: No.

Frank: On your top 10 pros to be traded, how highly rated are they? Are we talking top 50, 100 or fringe level. Thanks
Keith Law: I think only two were on my top 100.
Keith Law: were/would be/whatever, it’s late

Chris: Which is more difficult to learn/teach: Wingspan or Taverns of Tiefenthal?
Keith Law: Taverns is a bit more involved because you have a lot to think about, but I found the turns really rolled (pun intended) once we got into it.

Ben Z: Holy god Joker is not a great movie. Phoenix is admirably going for it, but hes basically Freddie Quill from The Master (an actual masterpiece) but in a Scorsese rip off with no intellectual coherence.
Keith Law: Enough critics and people whose opinions on movies I value and trust have said this, or something similar to it, that I have my doubts that it is worth the accolades it’s received. I’ll see for myself soon.

John: Do you mind if your fans ask you questions about prospects under your articles on FB?
Keith Law: I don’t mind questions at all, but bear in mind I can’t answer every question I’m asked across all fora – I just don’t have time.

James: Any thoughts on the record breaking salary arbitrations? Bellinger, Betts, etc.?
Keith Law: Good. Owners are rolling in it. The players should get paid too.

Ryan: Per your recommendation, my wife and I had a date night just sitting at a bar playing 7 Wonders Duel. It was really enjoyable, thank you!
Keith Law: Love it. I feel like I see folks playing games in public more often now than I did five years ago – but maybe I just didn’t notice it before I was looking.

Brian: What did you eat at the meal at the Love that made it your favorite? I really enjoy it there, but it’s never struck me as being truly great (like Vernick or Vetri), but more very good.
Keith Law: Vernick remains the worst high-end meal I’ve had in Philly. An abject disaster, with one dish coming out burned. It was a process failure.
Keith Law: We had a pasta dish and a chocolate mousse, neither of which is on the menu now.

John-MN: I home make bagels with the baking soda bath too, you also want to get diastatic malt from a home brewing shop as well for the water bath, both for color and flavoring.
Keith Law: Interesting, haven’t heard that.
Keith Law: Thank you.

Dylan: How long does it take you to write a top 100 or top 50 prospect rankings
Keith Law: The top 100 takes about 4-5 weeks in total.

Kyle: what is your suggestion for someone easing alcohol use? AA? Other program? Therapist?
Keith Law: That’s definitely a question for a professional – ask a doctor.

Matt P: What specifically drew you to Vermont and is it the same thing(s) that keep you there?
Keith Law: Well, I’m not in Vermont, so … nothing? Also it’s really cold up there. There isn’t enough maple syrup in the world to overcome that.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions & for reading. Stay tuned for updates on the top 100, and remember you can pre-order my next book, The Inside Game, right now via Harper Collins or wherever fine books are sold.

Hustlers.

Monday’s announcements of the nominations for this year’s Academy Awards were unsurprising and kind of disappointing; the Academy’s one brief moment of acknowledging art outside of the mainstream, when Moonlight won Best Picture in absurd fashion, wasn’t a harbinger of a change in the electorate’s inclinations, but a blip on the timeline. The Academy remains as conservative and insular as ever, nominating five men for Best Director in a year with many deserving women, and snubbing many performances from films outside of the mainstream in favor of giving nods to bigger stars from more commercial films.

One of those snubs was Jennifer Lopez, who plays a supporting role that is absolutely critical to the success of Hustlers (available to rent on amazon and iTunes), a movie I liked more than I expected and in large part enjoyed because Lopez is so damn good. As Ramona Vega, the ringleader of the larceny scam that involves the lead character Dorothy/Destiny (Constance Wu) and a few of their colleagues at the strip club Moves (a fictional version of the NYC club Scores), she dominates the movie from the moment her character arrives, and the movie flags any time she’s off screen.

The film is loosely based on a true story, detailed by Jessica Pressler in a 2015 article in New York magazine, where multiple strippers at Scores concocted a scheme to rob some of their rich clients by drugging them and maxing out their credit cards, taking home a sort of commission for bringing in the clients that was well beyond what they’d ordinarily make through performing and private dances. The script tidies things up quite a bit, including making the women more sympathetic and glossing over the prostitution aspect of the scheme, but follows the original article’s story of the case that exposed them – a victim who wasn’t rich, and who had gone through some horrible personal times, but whom the girls scammed anyway, only to have him fight back and get the cops interested in the case.

The focus here is on these women, who feel demeaned and discarded by a society that values women for their physical appearance, and that only temporarily, more than it values them as people, and fought back against men they figured wouldn’t really miss the money and who were among the biggest offenders at denigrating the women in the first place. Wu’s portrayal of the woman to whom Pressler spoke is actually much softer than the way in which that woman comes across in the original article, but her character isn’t all that deep or interesting – it’s the Vega character that gets the depth and complexity, a woman of great generosity in emotion and material goods with her friends but who has a callous, even frigid side when it comes to the men who misuse her.

The script also makes sure to let the audience know that these women become a surrogate family for each other – Destiny, Vega, two women who dance with them (played by Keke Palmer and Lili Reinhart), the club’s ‘den mother’ (Mercedes Ruehl) – filling the emotional void where their biological families, who have either discarded them or died or otherwise vanished, would have been. It’s obvious, and a little manipulative, but it also was largely effective because of Lopez’s performance, with boosts from Ruehl and a brief turn from Wai Ching Ho as Destiny’s grandmother at the over-the-top but still moving Christmas party. (Cardi B and Lizzo also appear as strippers at Moves, and both are incredibly entertaining in their limited time on screen but aren’t on enough.)

The movie frames the story as Destiny telling the story of the scam to a fictionalized version of Pressler (played in sterile fashion by Julia Stiles) after they’ve been caught and have served their sentences, which works a little to give Wu more chance to show some range but flops when screenwriter and director Lorene Scafaria seems unable to figure out how to wrap things up. The conflict between Ramona and Destiny often feels contrived, never more so at the end – perhaps because the New York article stops before the real-life Destiny (named Rosie) had her day in court, and because the real story is a lot messier. The idea Scafaria conceived is sweet enough to rot your teeth, and in the end Hustlers can’t get above the level of high entertainment because the script works overtime to make these women more sympathetic.

Lopez didn’t get her Oscar nod, but I couldn’t tell you if she deserved one over Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell), Scarlett Johanssen (Jojo Rabbit), or Margot Robbie (Bombshell), not yet at least. I wouldn’t put Lopez over the two nominees whose films I did see, Florence Pugh (Little Women) and Laura Dern (nominated for Marriage Story, but just as good in Little Women). I will say Lopez’s performance was worthy of a nomination; perhaps she was just crowded out in a strong year. I don’t think any of the other omissions, such as Scafaria for directing, were actually snubs; Hustlers is good but only Lopez really rises above the material.

Little Women.

Greta Gerwig’s debut as a writer and director, Lady Bird, was a largely autobiographical story of her own teenage years in Sacramento, with Saoirse Ronan in the lead role as Gerwig’s fictional stand-in. Ronan repeats the performance in a way as Jo March in Gerwig’s generally wonderful adaptation of Louisa May Alcott’s beloved novel Little Women, helping with the framing device Gerwig uses to tell the story in a nonlinear way… although Ronan here is completely upstaged by one of her own (fictional) sisters.

Little Women was itself an autobiographical novel of Alcott’s own upbringing in Massachusetts, telling the story of the March sisters, Meg, Jo, Amy, and Beth, who live with their mother Marmie and housekeeper Hannah while their father is away serving as an army chaplain during the civil war. The book, published here in two parts (and, in something I just learned, still sometimes seen abroad as Little Women and Good Wives), covers a period of about four years that sees the girls through courtships and tragedy, finally ending with three of the girls marrying and – there’s no way you don’t know this – one of the four dying of complications from scarlet fever. It was an immediate commercial success, spawning two further sequels (which I’ve never read), and remains a favorite for young readers today, in part because it’s one of the only novels of its century that truly focuses on its women, both as unique, well-developed characters themselves, and as women in a highly restrictive, patriarchal society.

The framing device Gerwig uses wears out its welcome a little quickly, especially given some of the abrupt transitions between past and present. She splits the time period across the seven years between Beth’s illness and her death, using different lighting and, eventually, a different haircut for one character as ways to distinguish between the periods, but some of the scenes don’t have enough time to develop fully because the next cut yanks you out of that moment and into a different one entirely. The shot of Jo grieving at her sister’s grave ends way too quickly and transitions to a scene of relative mirth that I think robbed the former of some of its power. There’s probably a good way to tell this story in a nonlinear way, still using the motif of Jo writing her great novel about her family as the framing device, that doesn’t make some of the intervening scenes so terse.

Beyond that, however, this film is just great, anchored by so many wonderful performances that it’s hard to identify just who is carrying what. Ronan is very good as Jo, although of course she is far prettier than Jo is ever described on Alcott’s pages, and particularly excels in any scene where she gets to crank up her emotions in any direction – and in her scenes with Laurie, played rakishly by Timothée Chalamet, who might as well have been born to play this young bachelor on the road to roué. But Florence Pugh is the biggest star here as Amy, a character who gets more emotional growth in the movie than she does in the book, going much farther from snotty younger sister to a young woman aware of how little the world might value her, fighting for any agency she can find. Pugh isn’t the lead, but I think she’s more important to this movie than anyone else.

Laura Dern might win Best Supporting Actress for her turn in Marriage Story, but I liked her performance here as Marmie even more – she’s the original supermom, showing the patience of a saint, and delivering one of the best and most memorable lines in the movie when Jo asks why she’s never angry. Bob Odenkirk is only in the film briefly as Mr. March, but he’s wonderful and is fast becoming one of my favorite character actors, even when the role requires little or no humor at all. Chris Cooper is delightful as Laurie’s grandfather; Meryl Streep does quite a lot with Aunt March, even though the character has maybe one and a half notes to her. Even Tracy Letts has a minor role as Jo’s publisher, and he’s the perfect amount of grump for the job.

And then there are the other two sisters, Meg, played by Emma Watson, and Beth, played by Eliza Scanlen. Watson just seems miscast here, speaking with a sort of affected precision that doesn’t line up with Meg, who truly wants the life of domesticity for which she’s destined. Scanlen, though, is just plain weird as Beth, who is also written strangely – made more infantile on the screen than she is on the page, which becomes particularly offputting when Beth is 13 and 14 in the earlier time period and she’s portrayed by an actress who is 21. Meg’s character isn’t that critical to the film, but Beth’s is, and the portrayal here is a bit jarring.

The ending Gerwig cooks up is rather sublime, and a welcome departure from authenticity. Jo is even more Alcott here than she ever could be in the novel, and Gerwig slips in some details from Alcott’s life to spice things up a bit, making her a shrewd negotiator and getting us to the big finish with a metafictional flourish for the ages. It’s not faithful to the source material, but given how problematic Jo’s literary marriage – which Alcott apparently wrote under duress from her publishers – is for the novel and her character, this is a substantial improvement.

We’ll find out the Oscar nominations the same morning I post this, but I’m guessing we’ll get Best Picture, Best Actress (Ronan), Best Supporting Actress (Pugh), Best Costume Design, and Best Adapted Screenplay, with maybe even money on Gerwig getting a Best Director nod. We’ll see if the backlash against the Golden Globes’ all-male director slate helps Gerwig at all; (I’m assuming three slots are locks, for Scorsese, Tarantino, and Mendes, with Boon Jong Ho a good shot at the fourth.) It’s not Best Picture, but it’ll certainly end up in my top 10 once I’ve finished the various candidates from 2019; as long as Pugh gets a nomination, though, I’ll call that a win for the film.