Oscar picks for 2020.

With the Oscars coming up tonight, I’ve put together this post with some loose predictions, my own picks for each award, and, most importantly, links to every one of these films I’ve reviewed. I’ve seen all of the Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Screenplay nominees, but missed a few others due to my schedule, my job change, and especially getting sick around the holidays, so I’m only at about 29 films for the calendar year 2019 so far, with maybe a half-dozen others I want to see as they hit streaming. Once I get those, I’ll do an actual ranking, but I know I’m missing a couple of critical titles for now.

Best Picture

1917
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood
Parasite

Who will win: 1917

Who should win: Parasite

I hope I’m wrong about 1917; it’s fine, but nothing more, and I would much rather see Parasite, Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood, or Little Women (which has zero shot) take this honor. I am just guessing that voters will see 1917 as an achievement, or as a filmmaker’s film, with its one-shot gimmick (which is almost certain to get Roger Deakins his second Best Cinematography win) and attempt to imitate real time.

Snubs: I saw fewer movies outside of the nominees this year, so I missed Uncut Gems, but of films I did see, Knives Out, The Farewell, and Pain & Glory were all better than Jojo Rabbit and Joker.

Best Director


1917 (Sam Mendes)
The Irishman
(Martin Scorsese)
Joker (Todd Phillips)
Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Parasite
(Bong Joon-ho)

Who will win: Mendes

Who should win: Bong

Snubs: Greta Gerwig getting passed over for Little Women in favor of Phillips was the worst snub in any category this year.

Best Actor

Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Who will win: Phoenix

Who should win: Banderas

I would pick at least three of the other four nominees – Banderas, DiCaprio, or Pryce – over Phoenix, but the award has been presumed to be his for months now.

Snubs: Kang-Ho Song for Parasite, although I think it would be unprecedented for two actors in non-English-speaking roles to get nominated in the same year.

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy

Who will win: Zellweger

Who should win: Zellweger

I still haven’t seen Harriet or Bombshell, but of the three nominees I’ve seen, Zellweger is my pick. She completely becomes Judy Garland, and as much as I’m skeptical of performances where the actor just plays a real person, she’s really that good.

Snubs: I don’t have any for this category, especially since I’ve only seen 3/5. I thought Awkwafina was good in The Farewell but wouldn’t take her over Ronan, Zellweger, or Johansson.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

Who will win: Pitt

Who should win: Pesci

I have no objection to Pitt winning; he’d be my second choice behind Pesci. I still haven’t seen A Beautiful Day, unfortunately.

Snubs: Christian Bale gave the best and most pivotal performance in Ford v. Ferrari; I would have nominated him over Pacino or Hopkins.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Who will win: Dern

Who should win: Pugh

This is likely to be my biggest disagreement of the night; Pugh was amazing, and brought something new to an old and familiar character. Dern was good, but the role wasn’t all that complex, and she was better in Little Women than she was in Marriage Story. I haven’t seen Bombshell, and I will not give Richard Jewell any of my money given its defamatory treatment of a real journalist who is no longer alive to defend herself.

Snubs: I thought there was enough momentum for Jennifer Lopez to get a nod for Hustlers. I would have picked her over Johansson, at least.

Best International Feature Film

Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Misérables (France)
Pain & Glory
(Spain)
Parasite
(South Korea)

Who will win: Parasite

Who should win: Parasite

The lock of the night. I will see Les Misérables, probably when it hits Amazon Prime in a few weeks or months; I saw the shortlisted Atlantique, but wouldn’t take it over the other four nominees. Honeyland was visually interesting, but I wouldn’t vote for it here or over American Factory for Best Documentary Feature. I also would especially like to see The Traitor, Italy’s submission for the award this year, and just learned that the UK’s submission, The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind, is on Netflix.

Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes

Who will win: Little Women

Who should win: Little Women

This is the token award they’ll give Gerwig after snubbing her for Best Director. I assume it also comes with a pat on the head.

Best Writing, Original Screenplay

Knives Out
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood
Parasite

Who will win: Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

Who should win: Parasite

I loved Knives Out, but I can’t push for that over Parasite or Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood.

Snubs: Pedro Almodóvar should have gotten a nod for Pain & Glory over 1917, the script for which is the film’s biggest weakness.

Stick to baseball, 2/8/20.

The Mookie Betts trade might be falling apart as I write this, but I did break down the reported three-team deal on Wednesday morning. I’ll update that as needed when the trade becomes final. Schedule conflicts prevented me from chatting but I did do a Periscope on Friday. My prospect rankings will run on The Athletic the week of February 24th.

My second book, The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves, is due out on April 21st from Harper Collins, and you can pre-order it now via their site or wherever fine books are sold. Also, check out my free email newsletter, which I say I’ll write more often than I actually write it.

And now, the links…

  • “Pro-Trump forces are poised to wage what could be the most extensive disinformation campaign in U.S. history,” according to this article by the Atlantic‘s McKay Coppins, who details the methods operatives use to fool people, especially via social media, into believing fabrications are the truth and the truth is merely fake news.
  • Evenflo, one of the major manufacturers of child car safety seats, lied when marketing its “Big Kid” booster seats despite data showing kids in those seats could be injured or killed in side-impact crashes, according to this investigative report from ProPublica.
  • Developing countries with valuable internet top-level domains, such as .tv (Tuvalu), .ly (Libya), or .nu (Niue), have often missed out on the profits from those names, which instead flowed to programmers or entrepreneurs in the U.S. or western Europe.
  • US Bank came under (well-deserved) attack last week after news spread that they had fired an employee for giving a stranded customer $20 on Christmas Eve so he could get home, and fired her supervisor as well. They’ve said they offered to re-hire both women, although the first of the two says she still hasn’t received a formal offer or any apology for the way the company defamed her publicly.
  • “Attention residue” reduces our productivity and happiness. One proposed solution is to carve out GLYIO (Get Your Life In Order) times during which you handle administrative tasks, or work out, or do other things that are bothering you because they’re always on your mind or your to-do list.
  • The Facebook group Stop Mandatory Vaccinations, which has 178,000 members, urged a mother who reported that her unvaccinated four-year-old son had the flu not to give him TamiFlu. He died four days later. Facebook is a dumpster fire of anti-vaccine bullshit and other conspiracy theories, and they simply do not care about the real-world consequences of their choice to shield this content.
  • Facebook also doesn’t do anything to stop anti-vaxxers from flooding pro-vaccine advocates, such as pediatrician Nicole Baldwin (whose pro-vax TikTok video went viral in mid-January), with threats and hate comments. That’s why Shots Heard Round the World was formed to help pro-vaccine advocates fight back against these armies of ignorance.
  • Miami, Florida, is the most vulnerable coastal city in the world as sea levels rise, yet Miami voters chose a Republican mayor, and the state has two Republican Senators and a Republican Governor – even though the GOP’s official stances on climate change range from opposing regulations on fossil fuels to outright climate denial.
  • I reviewed Matthew Walker’s book Why We Sleep a few years ago and praised it; I listened to the audio version and it seemed to be well-sourced and backed by evidence. Now there are claims that Walker manipulated the data in the book, and his responses so far have not come close to addressing the criticisms.

Music update, January 2020.

I’ve been adding songs to this playlist for nearly two months now – since I wrapped up my top 100 songs of 2019 list – which, of course, led me to procrastinate writing and posting it, since it was getting long. I’ve trimmed it to a manageable level, and it’s more metal-heavy than most of my playlists, although those songs are (as usual) all at the end. You can listen to the Spotify playlist here if you can’t see the widget below.

The Naked and Famous – Sunseeker. One side of a single with “Bury Us,” the New Zealand group’s first new music since 2018, and their first since founding keyboardist Aaron Short (now of The Space Above) left the band.

Ten Fé – Heaven Sent Me. Ten Fé are absurdly prolific; they’ve released two albums in the last two calendar years, then put out another two-track single with this and “Candidate” right before Christmas.

Pure Reason Revolution – Silent Genesis. I’ve included the edited version of this track, which runs over 10 minutes on the prog-rock duo’s upcoming album Eupnea, their first since they reformed in 2019 after an eight-year hiatus.

Tame Impala – Lost in Yesterday. Kevin Parker’s fourth studio album, The Slow Rush, comes out on Valentine’s Day, featuring this rather poppy track and all the singles Parker released last year, including “Borderline.”

The Districts – Cheap Regrets. The Districts’ songs to date have mostly been garage rock tracks, but this has an undeniable electronic dance influence that makes it the most interesting thing they’ve put out so far.

Working Men’s Club – Teeth. This Manchester trio released this first single since they signed with a record label back in November, and it marks a turn towards darker new wave sounds akin to Joy Division or Sisters of Mercy.

of Montreal – Polyaneurism. I haven’t liked much of what I’ve heard from of Montreal’s latest album, UR FUN, but this song is a bouncy, faintly ridiculous indie-pop track, even with Kevin Barnes’ weirdly annoying vocals.

Grimes – 4ÆM. I think we’re just going to have to see what c, formerly known as Claire Boucher, has in store for us on Miss Anthropocene, due out in two weeks; the five singles she’s released so far have been a mixed bag.

Sløtface – Tap the pack. These Norwegian punk-popsters just released their second album, Sorry for the Late Reply, full of more energetic bangers with clever lyrics.

Khruangbin with Leon Bridges – C-side. This collaboration is one of four tracks featuring the Texas avant-garde trio and singer Bridges on the Texas Sun EP, released today.

Artificial Pleasure – Into the Unknown (Pt. Two). I had to move this away from the Working Men’s Club track because they mine such similar darkwave territory.

HUMANIST feat. Dave Gahan – Shock Collar. Yep, that is indeed Depeche Mode frontman Gahan on Rob Marshall’s HUMANIST project.

The Amazons – Howlin. Introducing … The Amazons is a new 12-track record with B-sides, acoustic versions, and three previously unreleased tracks, including this one, which would have fit well on their last album Future Dust.

Thematic – Dirt and Chains. Progressive metal in a digestible song length! How novel. Their new album, Skyrunner, occasionally devolves into full-throated extreme-metal screaming, but when they avoid that the music is pretty compelling.

Toundra – I. Akt (edit). I’mprettymuch all in on anything this Madrid instrumental/progressive metal act releases, even when the songs are eight minutes long.

British Lion – The Burning. British Lion is the side project of Iron Maiden bassist and primary songwriter Steve Harris, and this song is a definite throwback to Maiden’s heyday musically, although it’ll never really sound like Maiden without Bruce Dickinson or a facsimile thereof.

Demons & WizardsDiabolic. Another side project, this one with members of Iced Earth and Blind Guardian, with a name taken from a Uriah Heep song. It’s also eight minutes long, but there’s some great vintage ’80s guitar riffing once you get through the slow open.

Carcass – Under the Scalpel Blade. The greatest melodic death metal band ever is back, with their first new music in seven years, although this lead single isn’t as precise as 2013’s Surgical Steel and sounds a bit more like pre-Heartwork Carcass.

Testament – Night of the Witch. The Pete Best of 1980s thrash bands, Testament is still going with their own blend of vintage speed metal and elements of more contemporary extreme metal; I’m just here for the riffing.

The Nickel Boys.

Colson Whitehead won both the Pulitzer Prize and the National Book Award for his last novel, The Underground Railroad, which re-imagined that escape network as an actual subterranean train system that helped slaves leave the South before the Civil War. His follow-up, The Nickel Boys, stays in the world of the mundane, drawing on the true story of a violent ‘reform school’ in the South to tell yet another dazzling, compelling story about race and the experience of people of color in the United States, and how white elites have continued to suppress the black populations in the South long after the Civil War was over.

The Nickel Boys takes place largely in the panhandle of Florida, near Tallahassee, at a fictional reform school for juveniles called the Nickel Academy, where white and black boys are separated into different houses, and the treatment is brutal and dehumanizing. It’s based on the Arthur G. Dozier School for Boys, which operated for over 100 years and at one point was the largest institution of its type in the country. The school closed in 2011 after a massive state investigation into charges of abuse, and a year later Erin Kimmerle, a forensic anthropologist from the University of South Florida, used ground-penetrating radar to find mass graves of on the site. They’ve found an estimated 80 corpses already, with exhumations ongoing. (The State of Florida officially apologized to the surviving boys in 2017, and as of September of 2019, after two-plus years of delays, work finally began on building memorials to the boys who died at Dozier and its satellite campus.)

Whitehead draws on survivors’ accounts to create the Nickel Academy, building his narrative around a boy named Elwood, arrested for being a passenger in a car that may have been stolen, ruining his hopes of bettering himself by continuing his education. Elwood has a strong moral compass, one that sometimes works against him because he speaks up when the world thinks he shouldn’t. Once imprisoned at Nickel, he meets Turner, another young African-American inmate who matches Elwood’s idealistic view of the world with an equally powerful cynicism, and a sense of self-preservation that he tries to impart to Elwood to keep the latter boy from meeting the fate of others who’ve ‘disappeared’ in the middle of the night.

Life at Nickel is about what you’d expect for black boys at a reform school run by whites in the 1950s and 1960s. They’re barely fed, because the administrators skim off the food sent for the black kids (less so when it’s for the white boys across the property) and sell it to local restaurants; they do the same with other supplies, like those for the boys’ education. They’re beaten in a building called the White House – the same as the name of the actual building that still stands on the Dozier property where illicit beatings took place – and many are sexually assaulted by guards. Boys who try to escape or otherwise draw the ire of the administration are taken from their beds in the middle of the night and tortured to death, after which their families – if they have any – are told that the boys ran away. There’s a nominal system for earning your way to release if you follow the rules and don’t push back, although in Whitehead’s depiction it’s hard to see many boys running this gauntlet successfully, given the venality of the administrators and bloodthirst of the guards.

The narrative itself revolves around Elwood and Turner, and Elwood’s own hopes that he’ll earn his way out – although the guards take him to the White House once – and tell the world about what’s going on at Nickel. Whitehead could have made this story even more brutal than it was, but instead he gives the reader just enough to depict the inhumanity of the school without dwelling on lurid details. This is a story of two boys, of two different ways of facing their incarceration and subjugation, and of a society that didn’t care at all about a few more dead black boys. Nothing Whitehead can write here is as damning to Florida, and to the American South, as what actually happened at Dozier and how long it has taken the state to even acknowledge the crimes committed against children of color at the school, but the way he depicts these two boys, especially the depth of Elwood’s character and the tragedy of his backstory, make The Nickel Boys an immersive and compelling read even though you know that any page could bring a scene of unbearable violence. I have no means or justification for predicting the Pulitzer winners, but if Whitehead wins for the second time in four years I won’t be the least bit surprised.

Next up: Julia Phillips’ Disappearing Earth.

Jojo Rabbit.

Jojo Rabbit won the People’s Choice award at the 2019 Toronto International Film Festival, a rather significant honor given that the previous year’s winner was the dreadful Green Book … which ended up winning the Academy Award for Best Picture. Jojo is nominated for the latter honor, although there doesn’t seem to be much sentiment that it’ll win, which is a marginal improvement; it’s a lot better than Green Book, but it’s a really uneven film that seems unable to decide whether it’s a comedy and ends up with too many jokes that don’t quite land.

Based on a book by Christine Leunens called Caging Skies, Jojo Rabbit takes place late in World War II andfollows the title character, a a ten-year-old Hitler Youth member who has become a true believer to the point that his imaginary friend is Adolf Hitler (Taika Waititi, who directed and wrote the screenplay). Jojo (Roman Griffin Davis) lives with his mother (Scarlett Johansson); his sister has just died of influenza, and his father is gone, presumably fighting at the front. After injuring himself while training with the Hitler Youth, Jojo ends up doing menial tasks around town and spending more time at home, which leads him to discover that his mother has been hiding a Jewish girl, Elsa (Thomasin McKenzie). The two embark on an entertaining dialogue where he starts out spouting the anti-Semitic nonsense he’s been taught by the Nazi regime, while she taunts him to try to keep him from saying anything about her presence, even to his mother; over time, of course, his prejudices break down and the two form a friendship that is tested by outside events.

Satire has a point, while farce exists just to send up its target. Jojo Rabbit doesn’t work as satire, but it’s moderately successful as farce. The targets here are the Nazis, and their adherents; Jojo is indoctrinated by the adults and older kids around him, never questioning what he’s told, even though his own mother tries to undermine their messages of hate and aggression. Waititi has made them largely ridiculous, from his own performance as Hitler to Sam Rockwell’s one-eyed Nazi Captain to Stephen Merchant’s Gestapo officer to Alfie Allen’s dimwitted officer, which is amusing but doesn’t really get us anywhere in the end. The Nazis weren’t objects of comedy, and the film spends more time showing them being absurd or stupid than it does showing them doing the horrible things they actually did. To be effective as a film, it either needed a stronger theme, or to be consistently funny; Jojo Rabbit lacks the former, and it’s only inconsistent at the latter. There are some laugh-out-loud moments, but it’s more a series of jokes that make you chuckle along with some that just don’t work, which makes the tonal shifts to the film’s few extremely serious moments even harder to absorb. (The posters that make this look like a screwball comedy don’t do the film any favors either.)

By far, the funniest character in the film is Jojo’s best friend Yorki, played by Archie Yates, who my daughter pointed out is a dead ringer for Russell in Up. He gets the best lines, he has the film’s best visual gag, and his delivery and affect are consistently hilarious. Merchant probably does more to strike the right balance between comedy and satire than anyone else in the film, with Waititi making him appear even more ridiculous with camera shots from low enough that Merchant appears to be about eight feet tall (he’s 6’7″). Rebel Wilson has a side role that she clearly relishes but that is just the same gag repeated over and over, funny just because she’s so absurdly enthusiastic about it. Most disappointing, however, is Waititi himself, who is surprisingly unfunny in the caricature of the imaginary Hitler; he’s kind of doing Viago again, with a sort of German-adjacent accent, and most of the jokes seem to revolve about how dumb he is, or around Waititi moving his arms and legs in a silly manner.

Scarlett Johansson earned one of her two Oscar nominations this year for her role as Jojo’s mother, and she is quite good, although I could make an argument that Thomasin McKenzie’s role and performance are ultimately more important to the film as a whole. (She also appears in the upcoming film adaptation of the Booker-winning novel The True History of the Kelly Gang with George MacKay of 1917 and Russell Crowe.) Johansson is charming, but the character is a bit one-note, while McKenzie has to explore a much wider range of emotions, and Jojo Rabbit couldn’t work without her. That the film works at all, and ends up a solid-average watch overall, is as much a credit to her performance as Elsa as anything else. There’s just no way I’d support this for Best Picture, given what else is nominated.

Stick to baseball, 2/1/20.

I had two posts for Athletic subscribers this week, one on whether the Reds have done enough to contend in the NL Central, and one on the Starling Marte trade. I held a Klawchat on Thursday, and a Periscope chat, my first since I started getting sick at Thanksgiving (after taking prednisone for just four days!) and had a cough for most of the next six weeks. My prospect rankings will run on The Athletic the week of February 24th.

Over at Paste, I reviewed Hadara, a civ-building, card-drafting game that made my top ten games of 2019. I keep comparing it to 7 Wonders because of the similarities in themes and card selection, but it’s more in the “try this if you like 7 Wonders” vein than a “this is too similar” one.

My second book, The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves, is due out on April 21st from Harper Collins, and you can pre-order it now via their site or wherever fine books are sold. Also, check out my free email newsletter, which I’ll get back to again this upcoming week in between writing words about prospects.

And now, the links…

Pain and Glory.

Antonio Banderas landed one of the five nominations for Best Actor this year for his role as Salvador in Pain and Glory (Dolor y Gloria), the latest film from Spanish filmmaker Pedro Almodóvar (All About My Mother). It’s a command performance from Banderas, who gets his first Oscar nomination at age 59, one that would get my vote (if I had one) in his category for the range and depth he shows in bringing this complex, sad character to life in a story that meanders like the memories it’s trying to depict. (You can rent it on amazon and iTunes.)

Salvador Mallo is a once-famous Spanish director who is now in professional and physical decline, wracked by joint and back pain and hobbled by various other ailments (some of which may not be real), all of which leaves him feeling like he’s unable to work, and if he can’t make movies, he doesn’t see any point to living. He’s thrust into the past when a local cinema restores and airs his film of 30 years earlier, Sabor (Flavor), whose star, Alberto, played the lead character so differently than Salvador intended that the two haven’t spoken since. The two meet again, tentatively, and Alberto shares some heroin with Salvador, who tries it on a whim but becomes hooked, and while he gets high we see more flashbacks to his childhood with his mother (Penélope Cruz, who doesn’t seem to age) in a cave house in rural Spain. While there, Salvador meets Eduardo, an illiterate but kind local laborer, whom he teaches to read, write, and do basic math; and fights with his mother, who wants to send him to a seminary to continue his education so he doesn’t end up ‘like his father.’

The two tracks, in the present day and in the world of Salvador’s memories, both move forward in linear fashion, but the latter jumps around enough to resemble the way our memories actually work. Almodóvar then combines the two timelines when Alberto discovers an unpublished treatment Salvador wrote called “Addiction,” that tells the true story of Salvador’s affair with a man who was also addicted to heroin, an affair that ended because he couldn’t kick the habit; Salvador confesses he doesn’t even know if his former lover is still alive. When Alberto convinces Salvador to let him stage the play, you can probably guess what happens, and how that kind of closure helps Salvador finally take some small steps to help himself, and to let his incredibly devoted friend and assistant Zulema help him.

Most of the summaries I’ve seen of Pain and Glory have focused on Salvador’s infirmities, describing it as a meditation on aging and mortality. While those themes are clearly present, the movie, and Banderas’ performance, are both far more hopeful than you’d expect from such a description, while also trying to explore how our past experiences and our memories of them can shape our lives for years or decades afterwards. Salvador flashes back to various scenes because of how much they’ve influenced his later life, especially in how his relationship with his mother, right up to her death, has affected and haunted him well into adulthood. Confronting those memories is a crucial step in his recovery not just from his temporary addiction but from the depression that has taken over his entire life, threatening his career and possibly more.

Salvador is not exactly Almodóvar, but there is a lot of the director in the character, and Banderas does a marvelous job bringing that character to life with the kind of depth and rounded edges that he needs to have to engender enough empathy and interest from the audience. Some of the key points about Salvador, including his physical pain, come across in ways that feel organic without overwhelming the character or the story – he’s in pain, and that often leads to him choosing not to do things, but he is not inert on the screen because Banderas renders him in three dimensions, especially finding small ways to show that there’s some energy left in the old man even if his back or his legs aren’t willing. It could have been a monument to self-pity, but Banderas avoids that trap and instead gives one of the best performances of the year.

Almodóvar still makes some quirky choices that don’t entirely work; the sequence near the start of the film where Salvador runs through all of his maladies with the help of some animation feels incongruous and took me right out of the movie just as we were getting started. There was no way this was going to beat out Parasite for Best International Feature Film (for which both are nominated), but some of those small decisions are enough to keep it from coming close to the South Korean hit in my own estimation. Cruz is excellent in small doses as Salvador’s mother while he was still a child, but she could have used some more screen time to further develop both her character and her relationship with Salvador, and those scenes suffer a bit because Banderas isn’t there. His performance is so strong – he’s not going to win, as his character obviously isn’t crazy enough to beat out Joaquin Phoenix – that it elevates Pain and Glory from something maudlin into an elegiac lament that still gives its main character reasons to hope and to live, right up to the film’s glorious final shot.

Klawchat, 1/30/20.

For The Athletic subscribers, I wrote about the Starling Marte trade, and looked at the Reds’ moves and chances of contention for 2020. Over at Paste, I reviewed Hadara, a 7 Wonders-like civ-builder with card-drafting and lots of simultaneous actions for fast play.

Keith Law: Wait in silence while planning your attack. Klawchat.

Bruce: Sam Hilliard played well last year though it was a small sample size. I was impressed the way he hung in there against Hader in a late season game and took him deep the other way. Does he have the chance to be a solid regular or maybe more?
Keith Law: Definitely has the tools to be no worse than a solid regular, but I do think the swing and miss, esp on breaking stuff, will be an issue in him getting there.

Bryan: Over/Unders on Oscar Mercado this season. 345 OBP, 18 HR, 26 SB.
Keith Law: I’m a big Mercado fan but I would go under, over, under, although HR totals for 2020 are impossible to predict until we see what the ball is like.

Justin: Know you’ve been a fan in the past, are we beyond the point of Gregory Polanco being productive? Would a good half-season net some trade value at the deadline for PIT?
Keith Law: Let’s see if him getting fully healthy this year gets him back on track.

Laurel: Does Jon Gray need a new home?
Keith Law: I think he would benefit from one, but “need” is too strong.

addoeh: Did you compare Skyline Chili to Olive Garden or something?  Reds fans have their torches and pitchforks out because you offered a measured opinion on their offseason.
Keith Law: It was kind of embarrassing to see how those fans conducted themselves over a piece that I don’t think was harsh at all. I got a similar reaction 13 months ago when I said the Wood/Puig deal was awful.

Mike: Can Justus Sheffield still turn into a mid-rotation piece? What are your expectations for him this season?
Keith Law: If his velocity is back to at least the low 90s, touching 94-95, in spring training, I’d say yes.

Paul: With spring training a little over a week away, how does not having a manager impact the Red Sox? How big a role does the manager play in developing the ST plans and practice schedule?
Keith Law: Not a big issue yet. I don’t think it matters at all till the games start.

Andy: Would Verdugo, Ruiz, and a couple non top 100 prospects get Betts? I’d rather the Dodgers hold on to Gonsolin for a 1 year rental.
Keith Law: No. You’re trying to trade the prospects you don’t like as much, instead of looking at it from Boston’s perspective, where they are fielding offers from other clubs too.

Jon: When is the correct time to trade Josh Bell? Boras guy, they’re obviously not going to re-sign him. With the DH coming to the NL, does it make sense to hold him until next offseason when more teams could have a use for him? Does he fetch two top-100 guys?
Keith Law: Still three years to FA, right? So I’d say there isn’t any urgency yet. See when the market emerges – 1b/dh types haven’t been valued that highly recently so they really need a contender with prospects to have a sudden need at that position.

Seth: Excited for Jesus Sanchez this season? Does the change in development team positively or negatively impact his future?
Keith Law: Neither.

Nick: Lost season for Urias already with the hamate surgery? He’ll certainly be able to play after his recovery but won’t that sap any true power reads until ’21?
Keith Law: Power was the least important aspect of his game, so as long as he plays, I don’t think so.

Andy: In the Betts to LA scenarios, I see people putting Bellinger in CF. Who do you think is a better CF, Betts or Bellinger?
Keith Law: Bellinger.

Arnold: Hey Keith, what are your thoughts on the Bryant grievance ruling? Seemed like a foregone conclusion since the rules were set up in a way teams could exploit it. Can the union do something in the next negotiation to address the issue and does the Cubs handling of the situation increase the odds of Bryant leaving in free agency and/or the Cubs trading him before them figuring Bryant won’t come back voluntarily?
Keith Law: I agree it was a foregone conclusion. It’s a hard issue to regulate, because proving service time manipulation is hard (even though we all see it), and if you try to move the thresholds teams will just alter how they manipulate the time. My suggestion at the time they did this to KB was to allow for a one-year right of first refusal option when a player was at 6.000 on the dot, so that at least teams would lose some disincentive to call up players to debut on Opening Day. That doesn’t solve the problem, but I think it’s a bit more fair to players, and gets the Kris Bryants of the world into the majors two weeks sooner.

Bruce: Will Dustin May be in the Dodgers rotation by the All Star break?
Keith Law: He’ll be on the staff by then.

Leo: Adam Frazier’s name popped up a lot as a possible trade candidate during the Winter Meetings. Was there any substance to that and should he return some value? Maybe a handful of 10-20 guys in an org?
Keith Law: No idea about substance but sure, a non-top ten prospect or two would make sense.

Kevin: Planning on watching the Super Bowl this weekend? It’s more of a social activity than a football game anyway. Anything interesting on the menu??
Keith Law: Probably not; we might go see a movie instead.

Jon: Keith, why do so many people in chats, both in yours and others around the web, suggest ridiculous one-sided trade proposals? And why respond to them?
Keith Law: My guess: most of these people don’t think their proposals are ridiculous. It’s not easy to value players when you don’t work inside the sport, and they are basing their opinions off the opinions of others (who may, in turn, be basing their opinions on those of others).
Keith Law: I respond to a tiny fraction of the proposals that come my way.

Luke: Matt Carpenter going to return to relevancy this season? Not sure what went wrong with him.
Keith Law: He got old. Time is a motherfucker.

Adam: I’m asking this specifically about Jasson Dominguez, but it applies to any prospect his age. How do teams balance focusing on his development as a player — i.e., better technique in the outfield — with cultural and general maturity that also has to go on at that age? It seems like an enormous task that would require a lot of cash and effort.
Keith Law: It is an enormous task and not every team does it well. Some teams prefer to target players who might be more mature, or speak English already, or have more education. Some have more extensive development programs for such players, and are doing things like building dorms at their spring training sites (e.g., Cleveland) to give players housing and feed them and just generally keep an eye on them.

dan: Do you see any common factors in prospects that in prior years you have projected highly who haven’t succeeded or in prospects you’ve rated fairly low who do well?  Is there a type of player, position, age, organization or the like which is a factor on missing either high or low?
Keith Law: If I notice any sort of bias like that in my evaluations, I change my process. Otherwise I’ll just keep making the same mistakes.

Nick: If/when O’neil Cruz moves off shortstop, can he make it work in center?
Keith Law: Right field is the floor. I’d try him at third first.

Gunther Centralperk: I asked the Kershaw/CH question (in a poorly-worded way) in last week’s chat. He’s been quoted as saying it’s “tough” for him to throw one and he “doesn’t have very big hands.” You said there were no mechanical issues, so it’s just a feel thing for him then? I’m trying to understand why a CH would/could be tough for him when he so quickly developed an excellent SL in 2010.
Keith Law: Maybe he has never found a grip that works? You do need to hold the ball in one of a few ways to make a changeup effective.

Mark: A report in the SD paper said the Pads / Sox have discussed either Lucchesi or Quantrill and either Neylor or Margot, plus Myers and a top prospect (but not in their top 5) for Betts. Assuming that’s accurate, what prospect would consider including – Baez? Morejon?
Keith Law: I’d include either of those in a deal for Betts. I’ve heard from multiple teams that their internal defensive metrics rate Margot very highly in center.

Steve: What do you know about Luis Rojas? Right hire by the Mets?
Keith Law: Great hire. Lot of managing experience, loved by players, data savvy, works well with R&D folks. They accidentally got it right.

Brian B: Hi Keith.  Thanks for moving to a platform where this Canadian can read your work.  I’m curious whether Outs Above Average has changed your outlook on any players?  As a Blue Jays fan, I was unsurprised by the Vlad Jr. (last place) ranking, but pleasantly surprised by Bo (maybe can stay at short?) and Biggio (not your favourite, I know, but perhaps there is something there?)
Keith Law: I like it a lot for outfielders. For infielders it’s incomplete, per comments from Mike Petriello, so I’m not using it.

Mark: Think Kris Bryant gets moved soon, now that his grievance has been decided?
Keith Law: The last I’d heard the Cubs hadn’t discussed him much with anyone, so I would still guess no.

Ben: Any favorite places to eat in Nashville? I’ve never been but may have a few days there soon.
Keith Law: Tons. Tremendous food city. Search this site for nashville (search bar up top) and you’ll find my posts.

Scott U: With the Astros hiring of Dusty Baker, how will that affect the development and 2020 playing time of the team’s up and coming young players like Kyle Tucker, Forrest Whitley, Jose Urquidy et al?
Keith Law: I don’t think it will. One, Baker was better at handling pitchers at each stop after the Cubs. Two, they’re going to need those players you mentioned to play and do well to win, so I am not worried that he might choose not to play a player who’s helpful – I’m not sure why he’d even do that at this point – because they don’t have great alternatives available.

Jim : How screwed is our republic if the Republicans vote no on witnesses? Corruption floodgates open wide, right?
Keith Law: You have to hope enough voters see this for what it is – and the media reports it accurately – that something changes in November. Otherwise, yes, we’re likely to see corruption expand to unprecedented levels.

Ian: Do people realize that saying that it is too soon to talk about Kobe’s rape case in the context of his legacy is the same thing as people (conservatives?) saying it is too soon to talk about gun control after a school shooting?
Keith Law: They don’t realize it. And now is exactly the time to talk about Kobe’s history, including the rape accusation and public treatment (including by the media) of his accuser. There is no  such thing as a “former rapist.”

Jason: Keith, are you troubled by the actions at the Washington Post in suspending their reporter for posting a link to an article (but now backtracking) and their reasons for suspending her especially with hundreds of reporters there supporting her and now with what has come to light about how in 2008, they were basically fawning over Kobe and divided the newsroom then?
Keith Law: Yes, and I contacted one of the editors involved in the decision to voice my support for Sonmez. They reversed the suspension, but it speaks to a poor process that catered to sentiment rather than reason.

Debra: Is George Valera a possible top 100 candidate or do we need another year of actual production at the plate before that happens?
Keith Law: Eventually, yes, he has that kind of upside.

Marcus: I have really hit it off with a person we hired for our company, but technically I am a superior on the chain of command. Others have remarked to me that they can tell this person likes me and I like this person for sure, but last thing I want is to make her feel uncomfortable if that is not the case. How do I go about things? Wait for her to say something to me or be honest about it?
Keith Law: I’d ask a lawyer – or HR – but boy does that sound like a terrible idea to me.

JJ: Soft class next year for the HOF.  How does this affect Curt Schilling’s candidacy?  Are there really voters so wishy-washy, that they won’t vote against Curt because of his racist tweets, but will change their minds if they have no one better to vote for?  That’s just bizarre.
Keith Law: I think he gets in next year.

Justalittleoutside: Hi Keith – If the robo-ump idea prospers, will that benefit hitters like Aaron Judge who (anecdotally) seems to get a fair number of pitches outside the strike zone called on him?
Keith Law: Such a change won’t affect all hitters and pitchers equally, but I’d like to see some data to support a claim that it will help/harm a specific player.

Dark Johnny: Does Tyler Anderson have a chance to start in SF?  Can he be a back end starter now that he’s out of COL?
Keith Law: I would lean no.

Marani: Matt Harvey’s still a FA.  What kind of contract would be reasonable for him?  I remember him as being the toast of NYC just a few years ago, but he’s been pretty awful the last 3+ years, and I’m wondering if anyone would give him more than a Triple A contract at this point.
Keith Law: Triple-A with invitation to spring training. He has to show he can get someone out at this point. It’s been too long.

Ryan: Have you noticed yourself getting more aggressive in ranking J2 signings earlier than you perhaps would have in the past?
Keith Law: No.

Matt: What would you guess is holding up a Betts to Dodgers trade at this point?
Keith Law: Probably the two sides not agreeing on the players involved. Just a guess.

Dave : Would you vote for Helton in the future? Crosses the 60 war mark on Baseball-Ref
Keith Law: I didn’t this year, even though I had spots open. He’s just short for me. I reserve the right to change my mind on any votes, though.

Jeff: More productive year in second year with new team ? Bryce or Manny Machado ?
Keith Law: I think both will be better, but Machado has more room to improve right now.

James: Have you seen Hjelle of the SF Giants pitch?  And how does his size impact his effectiveness against hitters?
Keith Law: In college, yes. Would love to see him extend a bit more out front to take advantage of the height, but he’s already deceptive and last year his velocity crept up a half-grade or more.

Lester: Do you prefer Cartel or Press for coffee in AZ ?
Keith Law: Cartel. Also love crepe bar, which uses local roasters and has a real barista on site.

King Felix: any chance for me making the Braves 25 man, or am I toast ?
Keith Law: I’m very pessimistic given your stuff the last year-plus.

Dave : I’ve been reading your film reviews, thank you for those. Is Parasite your best pic choice?
Keith Law: Yes, it’s still my #1 for 2019. I haven’t seen Uncut Gems, Jojo Rabbit, or Ford Vroom Ferrari.

Scott U: After Jorge Soler’s breakout season in 2019, how much regression, if any, will we see in 2020?
Keith Law: Some for sure. How much may depend on the Happy Fun Ball. He always had talent but don’t we have to be suspicious of any hitter whose big breakout came in 2019?

Pat D: Now that he’s got two years under the belt, do you have any opinions on Boone as a manager?  It seems like he’s done a good job, but he’s also obviously been blessed with loads of talent.
Keith Law: That’s fair. He inherited a very good team and they’ve been very good.

Lester: Shluld the Indians cash in on a Lindor trade now or at deadline?
Keith Law: Now, if they get an acceptable offer.

Trey: 2019 GDP number released : 2.3%. That’s nominal growth, slightly better than tepid, and def not as Trump markets “best economy in the history of the US.” So, why can’t dems capitalize on 1) lowest corporate taxes in history, 2) close to lowest income taxes on wealthy, 3) lowest capital gains taxes in history, 4) absurdly low ongoing federal fund rates, and yet…..only 2.3% gdp? GOP economic claim that they help the middle class is laughable, by ‘almost’ any metric.
Keith Law: I’d really like to see a change in how the media – and many universities – discuss macroeconomics. Things that the econ world long believed would lead to economic growth just haven’t in the last twenty years. Some have led to modest growth but income inequality; some haven’t led to growth at all. Anyway, whoever gets the Democratic nomination should campaign at least in part on the economy.

Mike @ Seattle: As a Mariners fan, this is the most excited I’ve ever been to see your prospects package. That said and based on the little I know, I found it odd they put so much faith in White as a first baseman that doesn’t have a ton of power. What did you think of that contract? Has he turned a corner at the plate, where he’s more than just elite defense at 1b?
Keith Law: He’s a solid regular, at least. I think there’s hard contact that might lead to power down the road.

Harrisburg Hal: My sons (youngest 8) really enjoy Azul.  While I’m not a programmer, it would seem an easy game to replicate as an app.  Do you understand the process why some games become apps, and others do not?
Keith Law: Licensing.

Mason : Hey Klaw, Mike Hazen has done a really good job of walking the line of competing and still building the farm system. amazing what happens when you get a real GM
Keith Law: I wrote that the other day. I completely agree.

JP: do you anticipate the Red Sox losing draft picks for the Alex Cora situation?
Keith Law: Yes, since Houston did.

Louis: Dusty seems like a bad fit. Astros are high tech and Dusty is as old school as it gets. Didn’t he once say guys who walk but can’t run just clog the basepaths
Keith Law: He did, although I think that was 15+ years ago.

Brian: Betts is obviously great but does he provide that much surplus value given that it is 1 year and close to $30 million? Are the calculations different when talking about a 7 WAR guy?
Keith Law: If those 7 WAR put you into the playoffs, then yeah, he would.

James: How good do you think the dodger rotation minus Ryu and Dick Mtn is? With the Kenta Maeda situation, Stripling being underwhelming, And the youth of Gonsolin and May, do you think it was a colossal failure not to get any SP help thus offseason?
Keith Law: They’ve held on to their young arms for a while now; I believe it was in part a bet on those guys being ready to fill out a rotation around this time.

Nick: No question, just a recommendation. I saw your review of American Factory, and thought I would recommend One Child Nation, which is streaming on Prime Video. Excellent documentary about China’s one child policy. Thanks for the great work.
Keith Law: Will check it out once I get through my Oscar list. Still too many films to see. I did watch Pain & Glory last night – Banderas was outstanding.

Jeff Campbell: I don’t get why the Dodgers wouldn’t give up their two “top” prospect, plus more, for one year of Mookie Betts.  It’s almost a cinch that at least one of those two will be a bust — that’s just the way it is with prospects — and Mookie would make them the prohibitive favorite.  Flags fly forever (even in Houston).
Keith Law: Aren’t they already the favorites to win the NL West?

Dan: Are you legitimately concerned about the Coronavirus or do you think it’s being a bit blown up in the news due to its quasi-mysterious status? At this point, 8000 people in the US have already died from the regular old flu this season, so that remains a much larger worry for me.
Keith Law: It’s Ebola all over again. Get your flu shot, and get your kids fully vaccinated, and if you’re of the right age for other shots get those too. Stop worrying about the disease that isn’t even here yet – and, so far, doesn’t seem to be as serious as SARS or MERS, although that could change – and worry about the ones that are.

JP: when with your prospect package start to drop at The Athletic?
Keith Law: February 24th.

Alex: Heading to San Diego next week for sun– do you have any new recommendations of restaurants to try  (Juniper & Ivy, Crack Shack for chicken sandwiches are my usual go tos)
Keith Law: Herb & Wood is spectacular. Cucina Urbana. RoVino the Foodery. And always breakfast at the Mission.

Spider Puig: How, exactly, is Moose not an upgrade at 2B when the Reds received a total WAR of -0.6 from the position in 2019?
Keith Law: Because they had Senzel ready to go at 2b; the difference between his defensive value there and his defensive value in CF is probably a win, and that’s before considering his trouble staying healthy and whether 2b is better for that.. Also, Moustakas’ defense at 2b is a complete unknown. He’s barely played it and I don’t think he’ll be average on defense.

BIll: Mize, Manning and Skubal: Do all three make their debut this year (health being the wild card), or do you see one or more of them being held back until ’21?
Keith Law: Health permitting they should all be up this year.

JP: unpopular opinion? do not do some half-assed DH to the NL option (DH as long as the starting pitcher is still in). either go full bore, or don’t change anything.
Keith Law: Full DH, please. Same rules everywhere.

Nick: I’m thinking of moving to Omaha. Have you ever been through there? Any thoughts on the city?
Keith Law: Once, really enjoyed it, great food scene, very manageable city, nice walkable downtown. It is, however, the least visibly diverse city I’ve ever visited.

Morris: The weirdest take I see on your Reds piece is that the trade for Puig got them Bauer, as if Taylor Trammell does not exist
Keith Law: In general, the Reds fans who were civil – I got more vile comments on Twitter yesterday than I had in some time – in disagreeing all seemed to dismiss the key point that they’ve traded three top 100 prospects in the last 13 months for not much return.

Matt: Careful, Keith.  Kobe was never even brought up on rape charges, much less convicted.  That story was extremely muddled, even for a “he said/she said” case.
Keith Law: GMAFB.

Michael: Co-worker of mine is suffering from major depression.  Cries all the time, can’t get out of his car, etc.  He’s seeing a psych and on meds.  Anything I can say/do that will help other than tell him I’m here for him, care about him, etc
Keith Law: That’s the best thing you can do. Don’t shy away from him at a time when others probably will.

Nick: Sonmez shouldn’t have been suspended, but can’t you agree that it was callous and tacky to re-tweet a 2017 article regarding Kobe’s rape case mere hours after his death?  THAT’s what she was compelled to announce upon hearing the news?
Keith Law: No, I don’t agree. I think it’s callous and tacky to praise him as a hero – especially talking about him as some sort of feminist – and completely ignore one of the most significant, public, and well-evidenced events of his life. Imagine how his victim felt seeing him lauded to the stars.

BIll: Do you see a scenario in which Lou Whitaker ever gets elected to the Hall of Fame? (At least the Tigers are finally retiring his number.)
Keith Law: I feel like the answer is no. Maybe if the Hall changes how it selects the people on the committees, but that seems unlikely.

Jason: I know your top 100 list isn’t coming out for a few weeks, but who do you think you’ll have higher: Dominguez or Abrams? Does Dominguez have too much risk to have him ranked super high or is the upside too good to ignore?
Keith Law: Abrams. Dominguez is 16 and hasn’t played a game yet.

Mike: In regards to the Kobe question – the stans for Kobe (or anybody) will always sound like idiots defending whomever it is they blindly follow. But a family is grieving a massive loss of both a husband/father and daughter/sister. Other family’s that were clearly connected to Kobe and his family are grieving their massive losses. IMO, this feels like the wrong time to take a stand on Kobe’s legacy, and add that to the discussion.
Keith Law: See above. This consider’s Kobe’s family, but doesn’t consider the woman who accused him of rape.

Brian: After a couple of run based cocktails do you ever think about your decision not to join the Astros front office and wonder if the highs (World Series win) would have been worth the lows (seemingly everything else)?
Keith Law: LOL, no. I have never regretted any of my decisions to decline chances to return to a front office – I think of all the time with my daughter I would have missed and I know I made the right calls.

Lara: Democrats campaign on an appeal to your greatest hopes  — health care for everyone, a perfect environment, everyone gets along, etc.; Republican campaign on an appeal to your greatest fears.
Keith Law: Fear sells.

JR: Are you a fan of The Good Place? If so, thoughts on final season (if you’ve been watching). I’m enjoying it, but it’s definitely run it’s course. Always better for a TV show to leave too soon then stay too long.
Keith Law: I loved S1-2, need to watch S3-4. I couldn’t do it weekly – that is a show I think I have to binge.

Sean: As a giants fan, I kept hoping for a Brandon Belt break out…which never came and likely never will…however he has been an average-good major leaguer for a while now. I should be happy with the production he’s provided and not disappointed that he never became a superstar right?
Keith Law: Yes – can’t control the injuries, either.

J: I recently saw in a documentary that Mick Jagger used The Master & The Margarita for inspiration when writing the lyrics for Sympathy For The Devil
Keith Law: Yep, he’s said that before. That book is far more influential than I ever realized in college when I was first assigned it.

Trey: Brailyn Marquez, finally a solid recent Cubs s pitching prospect, TOR starter or power closer? And do the Cubs have any other prospects that could hit the rotation soonish?
Keith Law: More likely a power closer IMO.

Uli Jon: Did you ever review “Left Hand of Darkness”? Halfway through and it’s my genre holy trinity of concept, world building, and writing skill, the last of which is sometimes lacking in sci-fi.
Keith Law: I did indeed, and loved it.

JP: would MLB consider it a “problem” if the same 10 teams from 2019 made the 2020 playoffs? or does it not matter?
Keith Law: They wouldn’t, and I’m not sure I would. If that continued going forward, yes, that would become one.

Michael: For anyone who thinks Kobe maybe didn’t rape her, read https://www.thedailybeast.com/kobe-bryants-disturbing-rape-case-the-dn…
Keith Law: Is that what Sonmez tweeted?

Spencer: A finance professor in college once told me that we can argue over policy and how that policy will affect economic growth all we want, but at some point certainty becomes more important.  Based on the proposal differences from the right and left, I’m beginning to think he may have been on to something.  Not saying where we should land; just saying people can’t plan when both sides are advocating for large changes every four years.
Keith Law: Perhaps, although to some extent I think all the macro stuff I was taught (20+ years ago) assumed too strongly that people would alter basic decisions around work and life in response to small changes in tax rates.

Lee: It’s been reported that Betts is seeking 12 years for 420 million.   A deal that long just seems like it’s destined to blow up in the teams face.  I’d love for the Red Sox to keep him but after seeing what’s happened to Dustin Pedroia on a much cheaper/not as many years deal, I’m not surprised that ownership is balking at doing that.   I’m all for Betts getting as much money as he possibly can but I also understand why it’s almost certainly going to be a bad deal for the team.
Keith Law: He can ask for that, doesn’t mean he’ll get it or close to it.

Giuseppe: Do you have any tips for stretching pizza dough? Mine always suffers from springback.
Keith Law: Might need to rest it longer. Also I stretch mine over the backs of my hands – knuckles, no fingertips – so gravity does some of the work. But I think the gluten in your doughs hasn’t relaxed enough.

Dan: Speaking of vaccines, I live in NJ and am incredibly frustrated by recent anti-vaxxers’ “wins” in the state. Really hope exemption loopholes are closed soon, but it’s so demoralizing to see anti-science bullshit continue to proliferate across the country.
Keith Law: Especially in a state that would like to claim it has good schools.
Keith Law: Keep calling your reps.

John: Why is Dusty’s reputation from 15 years ago still so difficult for him to shed? He has obviously always been one of the best at the managing people aspect of the job. And now that analytics and/or front office drive so much of the strategic aspect of the game, his weaknesses have been covered up.
Keith Law: It was extremely visible. You screw up in the playoffs and no one ever forgets.

Shaun: favorite Homestar Runner bit of all time?
Keith Law: The Homestarmy episode. Will you, stupid?

Erik: Do you endeavor to watch as many Oscar noms as possible or just ones that peak your interest
Keith Law: I try to see as many as I can and only skip ones to which I have a real objection – Richard Jewell this year, Hacksaw Ridge a few years ago.

Kip: Keith, why does the left reject nuclear energy at face value?  The technolgoy has improved, creates the majority of energy in France, and the amount of waste generated is less than advertised.  It seems foolish to reject emissions free energy entirely.
Keith Law: Fear. It’s unpopular, even though it’s quite safe overall. It’s a science literacy issue.

TomBruno23: Enjoying some brussels sprouts (thanks for the receipe from long ago) with some kung pao sauce. Thinking about taking down the entire 1lb bag. Will I be ok?
Keith Law: You stay … over there.

JB: It looks like Vandy will roll Austin Martin out at 3B again this year, but Corbin has also said Martin is one of the best defensive CFs he’s coached. Assuming Martin is plus out there as well, do you think pro teams will draft him as a CF where the bat plays even more than at 3B?
Keith Law: I thought I read that their plan was to try him some at SS. He played tremendous third base defense for me last spring.

Joe: Reds fans would like to point out that it’s embarrassing for a senior writer to claim that their pitching needed upgrading and not their hitting, whole also saying that a 2 or 3 WAR moose isn’t a big upgrade over the negative WAR they accumulated at that position last year.
Keith Law: I’m sure they would like to claim that, but they’d be wrong. Their pitching last year rested on the backs of multiple pitchers having career years of sorts that are not likely to be repeated. Sonny Gray had a career high in WAR after three years of far inferior performance, and then had minor elbow surgery. Luis Castillo hit a career high in innings to get to his new WAR high, and some of the underlying data looks fluky. I’ve pointed out that Desclafani has career-long issues with LHB, lacking a good pitch to use against them. Those three guys combined for around 11 WAR last year, with Desclafani throwing less than a full season. I don’t think you would reasonably bet the over on that, or even bet for a straight repeat. Multiple Reds fans claimed I said their pitching wasn’t good in 2019, but I never said that because it’s not true. I said it is a weakness for them in 2020, an opinion I hold based on what I just said above (and more). As for second base, I answered that above. Sorry, Joe.
Keith Law: Adding this after the chat … I also think Senzel and Winker are going to be much more productive at the plate this year.

Mike: I respect your consistency when it comes to defending sexual assault victims. I’m trying to look inward and figure out why I find it so distasteful to be brought up right now, and I guess it’s just an overwhelming sadness I have for that poor mother. But you’re right, I’d hate for that poor victim to think the world had forgotten that this man was (at least on one occasion) a monster.
Keith Law: The part of all of this I find most objectionable is the argument that it’s too soon to point out negative facts about someone’s who’s died. When is it okay? The next day? A week later? Ever? Why does someone’s death mean we can’t discuss the complexity of their life and/or their legacy? It seems like the ideal time to do so, even if that means touching on sensitive topics.

Jason: What was your objection to Hacksaw Ridge?
Keith Law: Its anti-Semitic domestic abuser director.

E.H. Zwick: Any Athletic podcasts on the horizon?
Keith Law: Yes.

Nolan: don’t talk about guns after a school shooting, don’t talk about rape after a rapist dies, but the second a virus spreads in an asian country and people are dying, start in on that orientalist bullshit!
Keith Law: Some day, one of those viruses will start here. It’s inevitable. Then we’ll see what it’s like to have the world close its doors to us, and maybe we’ll regret how we’ve acted in the past to countries that needed our help rather than our scorn and our prejudice.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Reminders: My prospect rankings run on The Athletic the week of 2/24, and my second book, The Inside Game, will be out on April 21st from Harper Collins. You can pre-order the book here. Thank you as always for all of your questions and for reading. I’ll try to keep these going until the rankings are ready!

That’s Pretty Clever!

In 2018, a fairly unknown designer named Wolfgang Warsch ended up with three of the six nominations for the annual board game awards known as the Spiel des Jahres (Game of the Year) and the Kennerspiel des Jahres (often translated as the ‘expert’ game of the year, or the connoisseur’s game of the year), winning the Kennerspiel for his fun press-your-luck game The Quacks of Quedlinburg. One of those other nominations was for the game known as That’s Pretty Clever! (Ganz Schön Clever), a roll-and-write game with a crazy scoresheet that lends itself to all kinds of real-time decision-making.

That’s Pretty Clever! gives you six dice, each a different color, that you’ll roll three times on every turn. You also have a scoresheet with five scoring areas, one for each die color except the white die, which is always wild. You roll all six dice and choose one to score, but then must set aside all dice with values lower than the one you chose, placing them (if you’d like) on the ‘silver platter’ in the game box. You roll all remaining dice, choose another one to score, set aside those with lower values, and then roll any dice still remaining and score one more. You’ll do this sequence four to six times, depending on the player count. When an opponent rolls, you’ll still get to choose one die to score. After that opponent has finished all three of their rolls, you can choose any die from the silver platter and score it. Multiple players can choose to score the same die in this stage. You can still score more dice than this, however, if you choose wisely when scoring dice you automatically get to score.

A solo game after four rounds.

The scoresheet has five sections and each scores completely differently. The yellow area has a 4×4 grid with four spaces already X’d out, and then two spaces each showing a number from 1 to 6. If you score the yellow die, you cross out a space with the number showing on the die. (You can always use the white die for the same purpose, since it’s wild, but I won’t repeat that in each section.) When you complete a row or the top left to lower right diagonal, you get a bonus: you can fill in another square in a different (specified) section, or you get a +1 bonus that allows you to choose to score an extra die at the end of someone’s turn – even your own, or you get a fox bonus, which I’ll explain in a moment. When you complete a column, you score 10 to 20 points at game-end.

The blue section also has a grid, but this one goes from 2 to 12, and you score it by combining the blue die’s value with the white die’s. Thus not every space is equally easy to cross out, and when you get a blue bonus in another section, you might want to mark the 2 or the 12 since they’re generally hard to get. You score points at game-end based on the number of spaces marked in the blue section, with the values increasing faster as the number of spaces increases.

The green, orange, and purple sections are all rows that you’ll fill out left to right. The green row requires dice values greater than or equal to what’s shown in the space, starting at 1, going up to 5, then restarting at 1. The orange row is the easiest to fill in – you just write the die’s value in a space, with no restrictions. Some spaces let you double the die’s value; the last space lets you triple it. The purple row is the trickiest, as you can only fill in a space with a number greater than the one in the space before it, unless the prior number is a 6, in which case you can start over. All three of these rows award bonuses for certain spaces, but the purple row gives you a bonus of some sort on every space starting with the third one, so I think it’s the most valuable section on the sheet. At game-end, you score the orange and purple by adding all the numbers you’ve written in the squares, and you score the green by looking at the number above the last square you’ve filled, with values increasing kind of like they do in the blue section.

There are also a few bonuses you get at the start of each round – a free re-roll of all dice, a +1 bonus, and at the start of the fourth round the choice to fill in one square anywhere on your sheet, either with an X (for yellow, blue, and green) or a value of 6 (for orange and purple). At game end, you add up all five of your section scores, and then you count how many fox bonuses you got, with a maximum of five. Find your lowest section score, and then multiply that by your number of foxes, and add that to the five section scores for your total. Over 200 is pretty good; I’ve cracked 300 once in pen-and-paper, while my high score in the app – which works well but assumes you know the game already – is around 285.

I’ve played this dozens of times between pen-and-paper and the app, and I find it incredibly addictive. Despite the simple mechanics, it doesn’t become repetitive because you are always making multifaceted decisions – choosing a die to score usually means relinquishing other dice for the remainder of that turn; choosing when to use those powerful +1 bonuses involves weighing the value of saving them for later, when maybe you can start a daisy-chain of bonuses that will let you fill in four or five boxes with one die. There’s a sequel game I haven’t tried called Twice as Clever! that’s apparently good but not quite as elegant as this original, which has already entered the rotation of games we bring on trips because it’s so simple, portable, and easy to teach.

You can also see my reviews of Warsch’s other games, The Mind, The Quacks of Quedlinburg, and The Taverns of Tiefenthal, over at Paste.

1917.

Sam Mendes’ 1917 was a bit of a surprise winner at the Golden Globes, where it took the Best Motion Picture – Drama prize and Best Director honors despite only receiving one nomination in any other category (Best Original Score). It feels like the kind of movie that awards voters love – it’s an ambitious war movie, it’s about the struggles of white men, and it has a significant gimmick to it that would appeal to the more technically minded voters – even though the film itself is more competent than brilliant, with a plot that borders on the ridiculous and a gimmick that is ultimately too distracting.

Although Sam Mendes has said the film is inspired by true stories his grandfather Alfred told about his experiences in World War I, the story itself is fictional. It follows two Lance Corporals, Tom Blake and Will Schofield, as they attempt to cross into no man’s land and possibly slip behind enemy lines to deliver a message to a colonel who is planning an attack that will actually lead his 1600 men into a trap set by the Germans. Along the way they meet many of the horrors of war, including multiple dungeon-crawl-like trips through English and German trench networks, run into half the cast of Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, and somehow manage to avoid all of the bullets flying in their directions en route to their destination.

It is absolutely gripping to watch in what seems like real time, with a script that seldom eases up on the throttle for you to relax. Even when Blake and Schofield are alone, they end up in some sort of danger, and eventually we follow one of the two into a bombed-out village that looks like a death trap for him between the lack of cover and the various Germans stationed around the ruins. When the action stops, there’s usually the threat of action around a (literal) corner, and Mendes has no issue ratcheting up the tension or the extent of the threats to his characters to make the film more exciting – even though Schofield in particular seems to survive multiple incidents that would kill an actual human being. It’s as exciting as any mainstream action film, without the usual crutches of the latter genre.

The gimmick I mentioned above is the use of long takes to make the film appear to comprise one continuous shot, although there’s one very obvious break and a couple of others you’ll probably think you spotted. This isn’t actually new; Birdman tried it and won Best Picture at least in part because of it, and Alfred Hitchcock did it in Rope when there were far more severe limitations on how long any single shot could be. It is immersive, and thus effective at putting you more in the action as you watch, but within a half an hour my eyes were already tired of the constant motion and from trying to shift focus between the characters in the foreground and the endless activity in the background. I was more than ready for the film’s one actual break, where one of the two main characters passes out and the screen goes black for a few seconds, less for the pause in the action – which I generally enjoyed – than for the rest for my eyes.

There’s also a good bit of stunt casting here, as the famous names attached to 1917 each appear for a few minutes, at most. Colin Firth, Mark Strong, and Benedict Cumberbatch – all of whom appeared in the 2011 adaptation of Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy – each have cameos, as does Andrew Scott as the hot priest … no, wait, wrong show, he’s a lieutenant whose regiment has just been hit. None is on screen for very long; the two stars are less well-known, although you’ve likely seen one before: George Mackay (Captain Fantastic) plays Schofield, doing a very credible job in a role where he’s asked to carry a substantial amount of the weight, while Dean-Charles Chapman (Game of Thrones) plays Blake and has more to do in the first third of the film. There’s one woman anywhere in the movie, and I believe only one person of color speaks, a Sikh soldier, even though there were plenty of black and south Asian soldiers in the British army.

As I write this, 1917 has emerged as a favorite for Best Picture, even over what I think are more highly acclaimed films in Parasite, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and The Irishman. (Even Little Women seems to be better regarded, but no one thinks it has a snowball’s chance of winning.) I found it generally entertaining, if stylized and a bit absurd, with an ending that simply doesn’t work. The cinematography is remarkable, and seems likely to get Roger Deakins his second Oscar in three years after 13 nominations without a win. It may also win for Production Design; as much as I would like to see Parasite win for the house, the re-creation of the trench networks and some of the battlefields here was a much more significant undertaking. But the overall experience of 1917 felt a little bit like a shell game, pun intended; this isn’t a true story, or even a plausible one, but it’s depicted like one, and when it was over I thought I’d been taken for a ride – especially after the ending. It’s more of a great technical achievement and a good film than a great film in its own right.