The Everyday Parenting Toolkit.

The Everyday Parenting Toolkit is a very specific set of tools for parents, with guidelines that apply to kids of just about any age but a stronger focus on kids younger than about nine. The subject here is behavior, and behavior change, and the book, authored by Dr. Alan Kazdin, describes some pretty simple rules for engendering behavior change in children that focus on positive steps more than negative, certainly different than the way I think most or at least many people parent. It’s often difficult to get through because Kazdin calls every step of the method by its technical name, but this is evidence-based behavior management, and could help all of us with kids get out of the cycles of discipline and punishment that don’t really work to create the changes you want.

The basics of the method revolve around the A-B-C framework of Antecedents, Behavior, and Consequences. Before you can do any of this, however, you have to define the behavior you want, and do so in clear terms that you can communicate to your child and that your child can understand in a way that they can execute. If you can’t explain it to yourself, or to your spouse or partner, in simple terms, then your child isn’t going to be able to follow it and make the change you want.

Antecedents come before the behavior in question, and changing them can change the behavior – thus, you create an environment with incentives (or disincentives) to encourage the behavior you want. Depending on the child, the behavior, and how far the status quo is from the desired behavior, you might even choose to simulate the activity and the behavior so that your child has a chance to practice the behavior you want in stages – for example, ‘practicing’ a tantrum, but one with less screaming, or where they keep their body more under control. You need to identify specific behaviors you want to change, rather than general traits like generosity or kindness, and then use Kazdin emphasizes that what you do before the behavior occurs can have far greater impact than what you try to do afterward.

The Behavior stage of his method involves providing reinforcement when you get the behavior you want, or even just part of the behavior you want. This might be the ‘positive opposite,’ where your child is doing the polar opposite of the behavior you want, and thus getting to your desired outcome requires working in stages. You create a plan to get from point A (present behavior) to point B (desired behavior), and develop a program, with any co-parents, to encourage progress with reinforcement – primarily praise, specific praise that is delivered as close in time to the good behavior as possible. The plan should set specific, achievable goals for the child, and each positive step should be met with praise, effusive praise for younger kids especially, and maybe with very modest rewards like a point system.

Consequences are not what you might think, or at least not what I thought they’d be. Kazdin emphasizes the importance of positive reinforcement programs, arguing that they’re just more effective than negative reinforcement (what we usually think of as punishment). Punishments should be mild when used at all, and should be accompanied by a reinforcement program that encourages the ‘positive opposite’ of the offending behavior. (He points out that parents should never use physical discipline, and there is substantial research on the long-term negative outcomes associated with even ‘light’ corporal punishment like spanking, from worse mental health outcomes to decreased immune function. Don’t spank your kids.) You may also need to withhold reinforcement from undesirable behaviors; every parent knows the situation where they’ve had to stop themselves from laughing at something their kid did that you really don’t want them to repeat, but that was actually quite funny. I remember my daughter, then four and a half, saying “Daddy!” and clapping twice to get my attention for something, and I had to turn away so she couldn’t see me cracking up; that would have provided positive reinforcement for a behavior that, while pretty astute (I had clapped a few times to get her attention before), was not something I wanted to see become a habit. Withholding that reinforcement thus would have been a key part of a behavior-change program, had I instituted one at the time.

Kazdin states multiple times that punishment doesn’t work on its own and should be rarely used, and only to decrease some behavior. It can confuse your child if you’re trying to use punishment, especially as a restorative method, while also working to change behavior and ‘impart other lessons.’ Punishment doesn’t teach positive behaviors, only works in the very short term, and often provokes side effects like crying, avoidance, and even aggression (especially if you use corporal punishment). He describes the most effective way to use time outs, including that the first minute of time out does most of the work, and that time outs beyond ten minutes probably do nothing at all.

The remainder of The Everyday Parenting Toolkit is devoted to the need to develop a strong environment, or context, in your home to allow better behaviors to develop; and to real-world examples from families who’ve visited the Yale Parenting Center, where Dr. Kazdin is the director, and the programs the center developed to help those families implement sustainable behavior changes. The context chapter would probably apply to the greatest number of readers, because the eight steps he recommends could start at any time, regardless of how old your kids are, to encourage better behavior or just discourage undesirable behaviors, and perhaps limit the need for you to use the A-B-C method so that it’s more effective and easier for you to maintain.

My daughter is 14, but I still found value in The Everyday Parenting Toolkit for parenting her, as well as far more tips for my partner’s kids, who are both still in the single digits. I have zero background in psychology, but much of what Kazdin recommends here follows principles from behavioral economics – not just incentives and disincentives, but timing (rewards and reinforcements must happen very soon after the behavior), misaligned incentives, and the nonlinear effects of many of these steps, like time outs. Kazdin does rely too much on jargon here, even though it’s a book for the lay audience, and I found it to be a slow read for that reason – seeing “positive opposite” fifty times didn’t make the phrase more meaningful in my head, for example – but there are lessons here I’ll be able to use at home for a long time, and that I think every parent should know.

Next up: I’ve finished Max Porter’s Lanny and am now reading Emily Oster’s Cribsheet.

Stick to baseball, 10/24/20.

My top 40 free agents ranking is filed, and will run two days after the end of the World Series, so that could be as soon as Tuesday and no later than Friday. I did hold a Klawchttps://klaw.me/3ogZKgthat on Thursday.

My latest review for Paste covers the legacy game My City, from the prolific designer Reiner Knizia (Samurai, Lost Cities, Tigris & Euphrates), a fun tile-laying game that ramps up the legacy rules slowly enough to keep the game accessible.

My guest on this week’s episode of The Keith Law Show was longtime A’s beat writer Susan Slusser, talking about Billy Beane’s future, the free agency of Liam Hendriks and Marcus Semien, and the playoffs to that point. My podcast is now available on Amazon podcasts as well as iTunes and Spotify.

I sent out another edition of my free email newsletter earlier this week to subscribers. Thank you all for the kind feedback, as always.

As the holiday season approaches, I’ll remind you every week that my books The Inside Game and Smart Baseball make excellent gifts for the baseball fan or avid reader in your life.

And now, the links…

Mumbo Jumbo.

I can’t believe Ishmael Reed’s 1972 Mumbo Jumbo escaped my notice until just this year, when I grabbed it for $2 for the Kindle. It would have fit perfectly in the class I took in college called Comedy and the Novel – which, as great as it was, did not include a single book written by a woman or a person of color – and should be in high school curricula around the country. It’s postmodern yet largely accessible; it’s funny, yet incredibly serious; and it deals with timeless topics of race and culture. It’s also about a nonlethal pandemic, making it an interesting read in the time of COVID-19. There were certainly parts I didn’t follow, some of which is a function of my cultural illiteracy, but the end result is an important and very compelling work of magical realism and postmodern fiction.

The pandemic at the heart of this story is called “Jes Grew,” and the primary symptom is the desire to dance and have fun. Needless to say, the white powers that be can’t abide this, and the Knights of Templar (who still exist) team up with the shadowy Wallflower Order to fight it, while various Black leaders, many of whom are voodoo clergy, work against them. The story twists and turns while incorporating major historical events from the first half of the twentieth century, placing great emphasis on the 19-year U.S. occupation of Haiti, with appearances by a cornucopia of real-life figures, including President Warren Harding, dancer/author Irene Castle, and W.E.B. Dubois.

In the world of Mumbo Jumbo, voodoo is real, but its history has been suppressed by white people (as have many elements of Black culture), and the true history of Judeo-Christian religions is quite different from the one we’re given today, involving a gallimaufry of spirits and prophets going back to ancient Egypt. The voodoo priests are led by PaPa LaBas, a voudou priest who is named for one of that religion’s spirits known as loas, but the characters themselves are secondary to the “anti-plague” of Jes Grew, a fairly obvious metaphor for the spread of Black culture and white efforts to stop it and, when they can’t, their efforts to appropriate and assimilate it. The story winds through jazz clubs and speakeasies, including Harlem’s famous Cotton Club, and art museums housing stolen art from the developing world. It works in the search for a mystical text from the goddess Osiris that may explain the origins of Jes Grew and hold the key to stopping it. Reed even works in the since-debunked story that Harding was part Black.

There’s plenty of intrigue here, including several murders by the warring factions, a demonic possession, and a tense hostage scene, which was more than enough to hold my interest for its scant 200 pages (and something like 50 chapters). There’s a lot of subtext here that I know I missed, though, from Black cultural history to voodoo and spiritualism, caused by gaps in my own education, that I’m sure limited how much I could understand and appreciate what was going on in Mumbo Jumbo. I understood his points about Black culture and the long history of white attempts to suppress it, probably because I’m at least old enough to remember mainstream resistance to rap music – and more than one adult telling me in the late 1980s that rap was “a fad” that wouldn’t last – and how it was characterized. The levers of power in the entertainment world are still controlled by white people, mostly white men, which is why Tyler Perry had to finance his own productions, and why some people of color have to produce and direct films in which they star. That’s part of why I said Mumbo Jumbo should be taught in schools – that aspect of the book is still extremely relevant – although I think this is also a text that would reward the closer reading of an academic setting, with guidance on some of the book’s allusions that I probably missed. It was rewarding enough as is, but I think reading it in a class would be even more so.

Next up: I just finished Graham Swift’s new novel Here We Are and am about halfway through Dr. Alan Kazdin’s The Everyday Parenting Toolkit.

Klawchat 10/22/20.

Starting at 1 pm ET.

Keith Law: You know they won’t win. Klawchat.

Samir: Corbin Carroll and Tyler Freeman are two prospects for whom there were reports of unlocked power at the alternate sites. Did you hear the same? Which of the two do you think could surprise the most with their power tool?
Keith Law: Carroll had power before, so I’m not sure what would have been unlocked. I haven’t heard that on Freeman, but I’m also pretty skeptical of anything I hear from alternate sites because it’s all from the teams themselves.

Ken: The sign stealing scandal doesn’t appear to be going away which must be concerning to MLB. As more people begin to speak out MLB’s investigation of the Astros and Red Sox is looking worse. If the “Yankee letter” is unsealed and discloses other undisclosed infractions by the Yankees or other clubs is Rob Manfred done as Commish?
Keith Law: That’s hilarious. There is no chance this undoes Manfred as Commissioner. He’d be at greater risk if he penalized more teams, not fewer.

Michael: Have you heard any word/update on how some of the newer Rockie prospects have been doing at instructs, specifically Veen and Romo?
Keith Law: The Rockies aren’t allowing scouts at instructs, so no, unfortunately.

Derek: Alec Bohm…..future stud or SSS this year?
Keith Law: Future star with the bat. Probably ends up at 1B, which does cut off some of his statistical upside.

Ben (MN): Do you plan on reading Hugh Acheson’s new “How to Cook”? I bought it even though it is aimed at new cooks because I figure if it is Hugh it will be worth a read anyway. Do you have any favorite recipes from his other cookbooks?
Keith Law: I do – the only book of his I haven’t gotten was the slow cooker one. I just made his kohlrabi and pecan salad from The Broad Fork last night. That book also has a great carrot soup recipe and a shiitake/ponzu salad I love.

Preston: I don’t like not being super interested in the Series. Maybe it’s that my Cubs stunk it up. Maybe it’s no atmosphere. But I’d like to blame it on bullpenning. It just doesn’t make for a smooth watch. What can/should be done in the future?
Keith Law: If MLB capped the number of pitchers teams could bring, that would help. I think the 3 batter minimum rule has had the unforeseen consequence of teams filling their pens with more relievers capable of going an inning-plus, which makes bullpenning much easier than it was when teams had a specialist or two.

Jeremy: Was there more going on with mike foltynewicz than just decreased velocity? seems like braves needed help and some reports said his velo was coming back but he never got another crack. is he worth taking a shot on this offseason or toast?
Keith Law: Worth a shot, but he’s had some minor arm stuff that is concerning. I’d put him behind guys like Hamels or Kluber, who have longer track records of success but are coming off injury-wrecked years.

Krontz: Is there a board game bubble? If not, possibly soon? Finally, how can the industry adapt to sustain growth?
Keith Law: I read this at first as asking if there was a place where board gamers could all go and live in a bubble so they could play endless board games without fear of COVID-19, and that sounds pretty great, actually. Yes, there are more board games published right now than the market can really support. I’m not sure how long it will last, but my suspicion is that the $50+ games, and publishers that rely on those, will be at highest risk. An extended economic downturn would probably exacerbate that issue.

Randall: Who is that rays #1 prospect we’ve been hearing about for years ? He still #1 for you ? I haven’t heard much about him lately
Keith Law: You probably haven’t heard much about Wander Franco lately because there were no minor league games this year.

Dab: Do you think Brailyn Marquez ends up as a starter?
Keith Law: I think it’s possible, but he might be a better reliever.
Keith Law: As opposed to saying he can’t hold up as a starter, or lacks the stuff for it.

Jeremy: which GM jobis better — phillies or marlins?
Keith Law: Phillies. My understanding is that Gary Denbo has so much authority within Miami that a new GM would at least have to defer somewhat to his judgments on players, and I think many GM candidates would prefer the greater independence of the Philly job.

Randall: What’s the outlook for the Rockies ? Never hear much about good prospects from them. Future bright ?
Keith Law: I just did a Q&A with our Rockies beat writer about that.

J5: How many HR’s do you project Ke’Bryan Hayes hits during his prime years?
Keith Law: 15-20. I don’t think he has the swing path for more. I think he can really hit, though, and he’s an 80 defender.

John: With Mitch submarining a new round of stimulus to hamstring the next administration from growth is there any hope that without a clean democrat sweep we just see obstruction the next 4 years?
Keith Law: If the GOP holds the Senate, we will see obstruction for the next 4 years for sure.
Keith Law: That’s the GOP’s whole playbook and the Democratic Party still hasn’t adjusted.

Jeremy: buy-low free agents or trade options teams should consider?
Keith Law: My top 40 free agents ranking will go up two days after the WS ends. As for trade targets, I’ll write more about that in November.

Mac: Rocker or Leiter?
Keith Law: I’ll say “other.” This idea that Kumar Rocker is the clear 1-1 guy for 2021 is so completely ridiculous. We do this shit every year, naming one guy who’s famous as the obvious #1 overall pick, and most years it’s wrong. Rocker is a first-rounder, and Leiter will be too if he throws more strikes, but either has a lot to improve to get to 1-1 for me.

John: Is Arozarena much of a prospect going forward?
Keith Law: Yes, but October is an inherently small sample. He isn’t suddenly a top 10 overall prospect, even though he’s played like one this month.

Jason: What would you do if you were the Phillies?  Would McPhail go and who would you hire as President/GM?  The Phillies need a lot of help in the front office and most fans are worried who they will pick.
Keith Law: Everyone seems to think McPhail will retire after his contract expires next fall, so they could wait a year and hire both at that point (when Theo Epstein’s contract will also be up), or they could hire a GM now and plan not to replace McPhail in that role.

Guy B: How can I argue with some of my right wing friends that making someone wear a mask and being pro choice can be the same thing?  I find it hard to reason with them, thanks Keith.
Keith Law: It’s hard to reason with the unreasonable. You’re wearing a mask to protect other humans in your community.

Big Fan: Hi Keith, after a few years of patience, Dansby Swanson finally blossomed.  I know you’ve always been skeptical of his bat speed, but did Austin Riley show you anything this year that would warrant the same patience?
Keith Law: Nope, on the contrary, he has had every bit as much trouble with velocity as I expected. He whiffed on average or better fastballs more than twice as often as he had base hits against them. This is what he is.

Troy: IMO giving $200M to a C is a mistake. Am I wrong in thinking JT will be overpaid and Philly is right to let him walk?
Keith Law: Yeah I wouldn’t give him $200MM … even at a six-year deal, which seems like the longest he should get, that’s more than he’s likely to be worth as a catcher in his 30s whose durability will probably decline over the course of the deal.

Dab: On a scale of 1-10 how much does it bother you to see fans at the games now? I really don’t care for it at all. Pretty hypocritical of the league to make players be ultra cautious for months only to let thousands of people into the same stadium as them
Keith Law: A 10. Tiny reward, huge risk. And look at how few fans are actually wearing masks.
Keith Law: The biggest risk is going in/out of the stadium, where fans will be clustering at the entry/egress points and unable to distance.

Jason: Do you think the brewers window from 2018-2019 has closed?  If so, what should they do– Trade Hader?
Keith Law: No, not closed, not with Burnes and Woodruff looking like a 1-2 now. But it’s going to get harder and more expensive to build the rest of the roster around them because their system is so thin now.

Diego: Hello Keith – what will be your first travel spot after covid?
Keith Law: Sort of depends on when that point is, but if you’re talking leisure travel involving a plane, probably Europe.

Jay: Are there people out there who actually enjoy Buck & Smoltz?  Buck seems to have a pretty low level of baseball knowledge for a broadcaster, and Smoltz repeatedly criticizes the product and harps on all the confidence/momentum nonsense.  When Smoltz tries to explain mechanics, he uses weird terms of art that no casual fan is ever going to follow.  How do these two smug buffoons keep getting tapped to call LCS and World Series games every year?
Keith Law: I do not understand why we’re stuck with Smoltz, who seems to disdain the product on the field and utterly refuses to learn about other ways of looking at the game, in the critical role of color analyst. I just can’t listen to these guys. If he were just intellectually curious enough to consider different perspectives, and balance his commentary accordingly, it would be a quantum improvement. But I also don’t think you should have a job like that (or mine, for that matter) if you lack that sort of curiosity.

Nate: i know you’re a big Anthony Kay fan, but other than him, Pearson, and ryu, do the jays have anyone internally who you think can be slotted into the rotation starting in 2021?
Keith Law: Maybe Murphy can’t hold up as a starter but I’d give him a shot.

Greg: I’m not asking you if Bryse Wilson is going to be the guy he was against LA in every start of his career, but what are your future expectations of him? Can he be a mid-rotation type?
Keith Law: I do think so. Been on my top 100 at least the last two years.

Ted: Do you think Jonathan Stiever has good chance to be a top-end of rotation guy?
Keith Law: No, but I like him as a back-end starter who could get to mid-rotation.

Jason: What are you expecting at tonight’s debate, the same nonsense, does a mute button help? And Keith how many Chinese bank accounts do you have?
Keith Law: Different nonsense, I guess. It’s pretty clear Trump believes he can lie with impunity – and he’s not wrong in that – although a mute button probably helps Biden stay on message. I refuse to answer your second question on the grounds that I may incriminate myself.

Jack: If you’re GM of the Braves, what are your next steps to getting over that last hump?
Keith Law: Go add a corner bat. They’re weak at 3b, one OF corner (assuming Acuña and Pache handle two spots), DH if that’s permanent. Ozuna was a brilliant move. Maybe they try that again, a one-year flier on a guy who was down last year. But I think they also likely need to get a more guaranteed thumper at one of those spots.

Sho: When a player goes on a hot streak, how much do you attribute to 1) physical 2) mental 3) luck?
Keith Law: I’d say it’s nearly all luck, or randomness, which I think is probably a better word for it.

Jeremy: does luhnow run a baseball team ever again?
Keith Law: My guess is no.

Ted: Have you tried or heard of anyone trying one of those Ooni pizza ovens? I’m considering the pellet wood version.
Keith Law: I own one. It’s great. Gets to 800 degrees pretty easily, cooks a pizza (if you use the right dough, which has to be lower hydration than a dough for your home oven) in 90 seconds.

Bob Loblaw: The Cardinals are confounding.  How are they so good at scouting and developing pitching but so bad at scouting and developing hitting?  The Arozorena and Voit trades look like debacles, but even going back, why did they trade Marco Gonzalez for Tyler ONeil?  That was a bad trade
Keith Law: I’m afraid that they overreacted to brief looks on some of those guys – Gonzales was so bad in his debut, and it seems like they concluded that his stuff wouldn’t work in the majors. But I give them a complete pass on Voit, who became a different hitter after leaving.

Steve: Is there minor league baseball next year?  If no how far back will it set talent development and impact the industry for years to come?
Keith Law: The odds are that there are no fans in 2021, at which point I think MLB has to step up and subsidize at least some MiLB teams/leagues, because the long-term cost in talent development will be enormous. It’s a revenue problem.

Minka: Favorite sushi roll?
Keith Law: I nearly always keep it simple when I get sushi – if the fish is good enough to eat raw, I want to taste the fish, not fillers. So I usually get nigiri rather than rolls, and if I get rolls they’re very simple ones that highlight the fish. I avoid things with sweet sauces, or tempura, or avocado, at least when ordering for myself. I’ll certainly eat other things if someone else orders.

Ben: Do you think there was a true benefit (over what his traditional MiLB path would be) for a guy like Riley Greene to be playing at the Toledo camp this summer? You hear stuff about facing better competition, but how much of that do you buy into? He’s an extremely talented guy, but still very young and inexperienced.
Keith Law: It’s a binary question – you had two choices with Greene, or Carroll, or CJ Abrams: They go to the alternate site, or they don’t play at all over the summer. In that case, the first option is clearly preferable.

Nate: The marlins were a great story this year, but do you seem them as a team on the rise that could legit compete next year, or more of a bad team still a while away that just got lucky with some SSS success last year?
James: Are you concerned about Mike Trout’s defensive metrics? Or are they likely a fluke given the short season? And do you still see him as a 10 WAR player for the next few years?
Keith Law: Nate: An average-ish team that got a bit lucky, with upside over the next several years but probably not a playoff team in 2021.
Keith Law: James: All defensive metrics are unreliable for 2020. The sample size was just too small.

Pat D: I’m choosing to watch the Giants/Eagles game tonight because I like to torture myself by watching the Giants’ ineptitude, I refuse to watch the WS as a bitter Yankees fan, and I just can’t listen to Trump’s voice.  Does that sound sane?
Keith Law: No Ertz or Sanders, though. Gonna be really ugly.

Josh: Hi.  My household income is around $500,000.  Please, PLEASE tax me more, and give struggling families a fighting chance (comprehensive healthcare, after-school care through high school, etc.).
Keith Law: One thing I do not really understand is why so many people who make far less than whatever threshold Biden might set for a higher marginal tax rate – and I’m pretty sure I will be paying more if he’s elected – are opposed to it. If you make that much money, it is at least a rational view to say you oppose a plan that will cost you more in taxes and almost certainly yield you less value in direct return (although you may gain psychic value from improving public goods, or even secondary value from living in a safer or more prosperous community/country). If you don’t, though, why the fuck are you opposed to taxing people who earn annual income that puts them in the top 1% of US earners marginally more?
Keith Law: For the record: I’ll pay more under Biden, and I’m good with that. Fund health care. Re-fund environmental regulations, diversity training, and basic science research.

Tim: Game 7 NLCS, worst TOOTBLAN of all time?
Keith Law: Kolten Wong in 2013 (?) was pretty bad too.

Mike: Safe to assume if your boardgame list says medium complexity (or less) that a 10 year old could play? You don’t have a list oriented to families, right? anyway, have a great day.
Keith Law: Yes, that’s right. I chose to put complexity tags on those rather than carve out a separate list, because every kid is a little different and I figured you would know your kid(s) better than I would.

JR: Is “Piranesi” in your queue of books to read soon? I enjoyed it. I’ll admit I was shocked to see it was only 250 pages after her first book was over 1000.
Keith Law: Yes, but maybe over the winter.

DEF: I really like your lists of top board games and top 2 player board games. Any chances of getting a top solo board game list?
Keith Law: Yes, for sure, this winter.
Keith Law: I’ll include games that are strictly solo plus those with good solitaire modes.

Joel: Did Bryse Wilson and Kyle Wright do enough for the Braves to feel comfortable relying on them in 2021?
Keith Law: Wilson yes, Wright probably not. I expect both to make starts for Atlanta in 2021 but I think Wright will have to fight to maintain a spot in the rotation.

Kevin: What is your approach to following the election results on November 3rd? Most of my friends say they’ll tune out and wait for real developments. I seriously doubt my ability to do the same, as good as it may be for my mental health.
Keith Law: I’ve been involved in some local elections, especially Kyle Evans Gay’s campaign to flip our State Senate district blue, so I’ll be watching results at many levels.

J5: Lorenzen was ok as an SP in the short stint.  CIN will lose Bauer… any chance he makes the rotation?
Keith Law: I don’t buy it. I think he’s a reliever only.

J5: Is Julio Urias better suited in the bullpen w/ Price coming back next year?  Or does Gonsolin or May get the boot?
Keith Law: Urias should start if he can handle the workload. Also, I am not quite ready to bank on Price making 30+ starts next year … my guess is May starts in AAA (if such a thing exists) and becomes the call-up when they need another starter.

Josh: Enjoying any tv shows lately?
Keith Law: Just finished The Vow (great start, petered out in the last 3 episodes). Enjoying the new season of GBBO. Mostly watching the playoffs this month, though. We’ll get back on movies and TV next week.

J5: Lamet, Clevinger, Gore, Patino, Paddack, Davies… which one doesnt make it next yr in the rotation?
Keith Law: I think Gore is the odd man out right now.

Rupert: I have a 5 and 7 year old, and there’s basically no board game I’ve found that can keep their attention (or at least the 5 year old’s attention).  Any suggestions?
Keith Law: It depends a bit on what they like – I see a lot of games suitable for ages 5+, like Ticket to Ride First Journey, but if your kids don’t like maps or train games, that may not be the ideal choice. I haven’t cracked Dragomino, the young players’ version of Kingdomino, yet, but it looks promising.

Dr. Bob: RE: The Arozorena question. At only 19, Andruw Jones broke upon our consciousness in the 1996 playoffs and WS after only playing 31 games that year. Was he already considered a top prospect? In any words, is there any correlation to Arozorena?
Keith Law: Andruw was one of the best prospects in baseball before 1996. I think BA had him in their top 2 or 3, if not actually at 1.

Geoff: I’ve found myself thinking about this recently: what will be the point where you’re confident about/feel safe being around others in a “normal” way (i.e. no mask, large crowds, etc.)? After there’s a real, effective vaccine obviously, but right after? A few weeks after when infections are way down? Longer?
Keith Law: If infections are way down, and we’re seeing high enough vaccination rates in the places I want to go, then I’ll travel. It might be safer to travel to Europe, for example, where they have fewer batshit anti-mask people.

Ben: Keith, do you have any concerns about Biden’s connections with China, Russia & Ukraine? Not saying compared to Trump, just in a vacuum, does this new information trouble you at all?
Keith Law: No because I don’t fall for bullshit.

Jason: Is a healthy rotation of Soroka, Fried, Anderson, Wright, and Wilson a top 10-type rotation, or am I putting too much hope in Wright and hype into SSS from Anderson and Wilson?
Keith Law: With Soroka having some history of injuries and Wilson/Wright both showing at least some inconsistency, I’d like to see them take a shot at a one-year starter, even if that’s also someone who isn’t a lock for 30 starts, to increase their chances of getting those innings from somewhere other than the Josh Tomlins of the world.

Ben (Chi): What’s your take on all these Cubs layoffs?  Penny wise, pound foolish?
Keith Law: Misanthropic. Although given that Todd Ricketts profile in the New Yorker, I’m hardly surprised.

Mike: Keith, they have to do something about the time the World Series starts. With games taking close to 4 hours, am I the only one who checks out early & goes to bed?
Keith Law: I agree with this … we get up at 6:45 here for school and games ending around midnight means that I’m running on fumes most days. I actually went back to bed this morning because I had such a bad headache, which I think was a function of lack of sleep.

Guest: You’ve previously said Ian Anderson has the ceiling of a #2 but I believe this was before the development of his change. Does the new pitch change your view of his (already high) ceiling?
Keith Law: I’m holding to that because I think the breaking ball is a little light and the fastball is good not outstanding.
Keith Law: The changeup is a 70, though, and I did not have that.

Jason: Do you ever use UberEats or Doordash?What do you think about these delivery apps?
Keith Law: I don’t. I’ve read that their terms are pretty bad for the restaurants, so we always order directly.

TomBruno23: What is the deal with tea? Granted I like coffee and I sound like the people who hate on coffee. But tea to me tastes like someone took perfectly good water and ran it through a sewer.
Keith Law: There are so many kinds of tea – black, white, green, oolong, plus tisanes like red – and even within some of those categories there are vast differences in flavor profiles (e.g., green includes matcha, which tastes like grass, and hojicha, which is roasted and more earthy), that you might just not have found the right kind for your palate.

Ryan: As a Dbacks fan, please tell me there is hope for this team! The Dodgers are loaded. The Padres will be good for a long time too. But the Dbacka major league team is such a disaster, and the front office seems to think it will be fine next year?! Is there any hope they can compete again in 2022 or so?
Keith Law: Lot of hope. Really like the position player prospects in the low minors. But that franchise really needs an MiLB season in 2021.

Pizza is good: I asked a couple chats back if you thought frozen Pizzeria Bianca was worth a shot. I did and it was really terrific. Individual ingredients really stand out. Good rec. thanks.
Keith Law: Awesome! I know it’s quite expensive but for the best pizza in the country it’s not an unreasonable splurge.

Ridley: Just so we’re clear, Rudy Giuliani’s excuses were bullshit, weren’t they?
Keith Law: Oh absolutely.

J5: Out of these rotation candidates, Severino/German/Deivi/Montgomery/Schmidt, which 2-3 do you think makes it next year?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t bank on Severino being healthy for a full season, but he’ll make some starts. Deivi probably did the most to earn the spot.

addoeh: Any plans for a pizza list update?  I know you haven’t been able to cross many off your list recently.
Keith Law: I was going to do one this spring or summer, but the pandemic put it on hold.

Adam: Maybe the Padres didn’t send away any “premier” talent for Mike Clevinger, but they basically gutted their upper minor/major league depth in the trade for him. That could come back to haunt them in a full season, right?
Keith Law: Eh, Trammell’s the one guy they might most regret trading and he was in a different deal. I’m worried about this ridiculous Campusano story … felony charges for weed possession? was he in Georgia or Indonesia?

Josh: My theory (on people who make far less than whatever threshold Biden might set for a higher marginal tax rate, opposing it) is, way too briefly:  they (1) have no idea how much wealth is concentrated at far-right reaches of the income distribution curve (big numbers are really hard, even for smart people), and/or (2) aspire to the grievances of the 0.1% having to fork over millions in taxes.
Keith Law: I’ve heard #2 as an explanation for decades, but I think #1 is more plausible. And maybe it’s like people trying to understand how large the universe is and how tiny we are relative to it. We just can’t. So if you make $30K a year, can you really imagine the difference in wealth and standard of living for someone making 20 times that?

Mike: Is it a foregone conclusion that Lindor gets traded before next season?  If so, most likely landing spot?
Keith Law: I think so. I’m not sure what the market is right now, though. Some of the teams that should be most interested might not have the pieces to make the trade.

Ridley: Lauren Witzke. Please tell me she’s not going to win that seat.
Keith Law: She’ll be lucky to get 1/3 of the vote. She’s an open white nationalist running in a very blue state. She might win Kent or Sussex counties but more than half of our population is right here in New Castle.

TomBruno23: Jones was #21 pre-95, #1 pre-96 and #1 pre-97 on BA’s lists.
Keith Law: I was right! I should trust my memory sometimes. But not too often.

Guest: Thanks for the chat, Keith. Assuming owners approve the Mets sale, what do you think of Cohen turning baseball ops over to Sandy Alderson? I always loved Sandy, and am okay with pairing him with a young, smart GM (you interested in the job?) but I also wonder if it might be better to turn the page completely from past eras or even to try to lure Theo from the sinking ship that is the Cubs ownership.
Keith Law: Thrilled to see Sandy return, think he’s so respected that he’ll get the right kind of person in as GM. Plus the pattern of execs going over the GM to Jeff or Fred Wilpon is gone now.

Philip C.: Daniel Lynch reports from the alternate site were electric. What is timeline for his debut?
Keith Law: I bet we would have seen him this summer if the Royals had been contenders.

Mike: Franklin BBQ brisket is now available on Goldbelly.  $250 for a 5lb brisket.  Worth it?
Keith Law: I no longer eat beef, but I have had their brisket, and it is absolutely incredible. If you’re reasonable about portion sizes, that’s about $12.50 per portion – brisket is rather fatty, and if you’re eating 6-8 ounces, well, vaya con Dios – and that’s a good price for high-quality beef.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I’m taking a week off leading up to the election to volunteer for various campaigns, so there won’t be a chat next week, but the top 40 free agent rankings post will go up some time between next Tuesday and Friday, and I may do a live Zoom Q&A through the Athletic to support that. Thanks for reading, everyone. Stay safe, wear your masks, and vote for reason and science.

Just One.

Just One is a cooperative party game that took the Spiel des Jahres award – which has gone to a party game three times in the last five years – in 2019, despite some incredibly simple rules. There’s one real gimmick here, but otherwise it’s a very solid if not terribly novel word-guessing game that fits nicely on the shelf with the likes of Taboo, Codenames (the 2015 Spiel winner), and Werewords.

Just One’s ideal player count is 4 to 7, although there’s a tweak for playing with 3, and on each turn one of those players will be the guesser while all others will provide clues. At the start of the game, the players shuffle the deck and draw 13 cards, face-down, into a separate pile for that game. The guesser takes a card from the pile without looking, placing it on their personal easel facing away from them, and says a number from 1 to 5. Each card has five words on it, so the guesser’s number decides which word is the target for that particular round. Then every other player writes a single-word clue on their own easels, using dry-erase markers, and shows it to all other players except the guesser.

Why show it to other players first? If any two or more players wrote down the same clue, it’s invalid and those players must erase their words. The guesser only gets to see clue words that were unique, so it’s quite possible that you’d end up with zero clues and thus have no chance to guess at all, although I haven’t had that happen yet. The guesser has two choices – they get one guess at the target word, or they may pass. If they guess correctly, the team scores a point, placing that card into a separate pile. If they pass, the card is set aside with no gain or loss. If they guess incorrectly, however, they essentially lose two points, discarding that card plus the top card in the face-down pile or, if that pile is done, removing a card from the stack of successful cards.

The game ends when the thirteen-card pile is exhausted, after which players add up the cards in the success pile. Thirteen is a perfect score, although anything from nine and up is probably a successful game, although I think there’s a bit of a curve here where having more players makes it a little easier.

You can play with three players with one change to the rules: on each turn, the two players who are giving clues will give two words, on two separate easels, so that those players are comparing all four clues and will still eliminate any duplicates. This does alter the game quite a bit, because you can connect your two clues in certain ways – the rules don’t explicitly ban making the two words together into a single phrase or clue, although I think that’s against the spirit of the game, and you do risk having one or both clues eliminated if the other clue-giver has the same idea. It just opens up possibilities that aren’t there when you can only give one single-word clue.

That all makes Just One … just fine. It’s fun enough to play, especially when you have a lot in common with other players, so you’re likely to share experiences or associations with words, and thus can play into those but have to hope other clue-givers don’t remember the same incident or the same connection to which your clue refers. I do think party games work better when they’re competitive, and I think the word-guessing game has been done better by other designers, but I wouldn’t say no if someone asked to play this, and at under $20 it’s good value considering how many times you could conceivably play it.

Biased.

Dr. Jennifer Eberhardt is a social psychologist and professor at Stanford University who received a MacArthur Foundation “Genius” Grant in 2014 for her work on implicit bias and how stereotypic associations on race have substantial consequences when they intersect with crime. Her first book, Biased: Uncovering the Hidden Prejudice That Shapes What We See, Think, and Do, came out in 2019 and explains much of her work on the topic with concrete and often very moving examples of such bias occurring in the real world – often in Eberhardt’s own life – when Black Americans encounter the police.

The heart of Biased comes from Eberhardt’s work on racial bias and crime, and many of the stories that she uses to illustrate conclusions from broader research efforts involve the murders of unarmed Black men by police. One chapter starts with the shooting of Terence Crutcher, who was shot and killed by a panicked white police officer, Betty Shelby, who was, of course, acquitted of all charges in connection with her actions. (She later said that she was “sorry he lost his life,” as if she wasn’t involved in that somewhow.) Crutcher’s twin sister, Tiffany, has become a prominent activist focusing on criminal justice reform and raising awareness of the role white supremacy plays in endangering Black lives.

Eberhardt uses Crutcher’s story and her words to frame discussions of how implicit bias – the kind of bias that happens beneath our conscious thought process – leads to outcomes like Shelby killing Terence Crutcher. We can all recognize the kind of bias that uses racial slurs, or explicitly excludes some group, or traffics in open stereotypes, but implicit bias can have consequences every bit as significant, and is more insidious because even well-intentioned people can fall prey to it. Multiple studies have found, for example, that white subjects have subconscious associations between Black people and various negative character traits – and some Black subjects did as well, which indicates that these are societal messages that everyone receives, through the news, entertainment, even at school. When police officers have those implicit biases, they might be more likely to assume that a Black man holding a cell phone is actually holding a gun when they wouldn’t make the same assumption with a white man. This becomes a failure of officer training, not a matter of all cops who shoot Black men being overtly racist, while also drawing another line between those who say Black Lives Matter and those who counter that All or Blue or Fuchsia Lives Matter instead.

No other arena has the same stakes as policing and officer-involved shootings, but implicit bias also has enormous consequences in areas like education, hiring, and the housing market. Eberhardt runs through numerous studies showing implicit but unmistakable bias in the employment sphere, such as when test candidates with identical resumes but different names, one of whom bears a name that might imply the candidate is Black, receive calls back at vastly different rates. Implicit bias can explain why we still see evidence of redlining even when the explicit practice – denying the applications of nonwhite renters, or the offers of nonwhite home buyers, to keep white neighborhoods white – has been outlawed since the Fair Housing Act was passed in 1968.

Eberhardt also speaks to Bernice Donald, a Black woman who is now a federal judge but who experienced discrimination in education firsthand as one of the first Black students in DeSoto County, Mississippi, to attend her local whites-only high school, where she was ignored by some white teachers, singled out by faculty and students alike, and denied opportunities for advancement, including college scholarships she had earned through her academic performance. The implicit biases we see today affect not just students’ grades, but how students of different races are disciplined, and how severe such discipline is. Eberhardt doesn’t mention the school-to-prison pipeline, but the research she cites here shows how that pipeline can exist and the role that implicit bias plays in filling it with Black students.

Some of the studies Eberhardt describes in Biased will be familiar if you’ve read any similar books, such as Claude Steele’s Whistling Vivaldi or Banaji & Greenwald’s Blindspot, that cover this ground, but Eberhardt’s look is newer, more comprehensive, and punctuated by deeply personal anecdotes, including a few of her own. While she was a graduate student at Harvard, on the eve of commencement, she and her roommate were pulled over by a Boston police officer for a minor equipment violation, harassed, injured, and brought to the station, where a Dean from their department had to come vouch for their release. She eventually had to go to court, where she was acquitted of all charges – which included a claim that she had injured the officer, a claim the judge ridiculed, according to Eberhardt. Would that have happened if she were white? Would it surprise you to hear that the cop who hassled her and her friend was Black? And what, ultimately, does this, and research showing that Black motorists are far more likely to be stopped for the most trivial of causes and more likely to end up dead when stopped by police, tell us about solutions to the problem of implicit bias in policing? The answers are not easy, because implicit bias is so hard to root out and often isn’t evident until we have enough data to show it’s affecting outcomes. We won’t get to that point if we can’t agree that the problem exists in the first place.

Next up: I just finished Ishmael Reed’s Mumbo Jumbo last night and am reading Graham Swift’s new novel Here We Are.

Stick to baseball, 10/17/20.

Just one piece this week for subscribers to the Athletic as I work on the top 40 free agents ranking, which will run a few days after the World Series ends: Nick Groke, our Rockies beat writer, asked me a bunch of questions about Colorado’s farm system, and I dutifully answered them. Klawchat, board game reviews, and dish posts should return next week.

My guest on this week’s episode of The Keith Law Show was my old partner-in-crime Eric Karabell, although Bias Cat did not make an appearance. My podcast is now available on Amazon podcasts as well as iTunes and Spotify.

I’m due to send out a fresh edition of my free email newsletter this weekend as well. We’ll see how that works out for me.

As the holiday season approaches, I’ll remind you every week that my books The Inside Game and Smart Baseball make excellent gifts for the baseball fan or avid reader in your life.

And now, the links…

  • Now some longreads: ProPublica details the fall of the CDC, undermined from above by the anti-science Trump Administration and from within by craven, spineless leadership.
  • Sara Benincasa’s essay “Fred and Me” is just wonderful and I won’t spoil it in the least.
  • Why has Germany handled COVID-19 better than its neighbors? By following the science, including implementing widescale, frequent testing.
  • QAnon, the batshit-crazy hoax embraced by multiple alt-right figures and now our sitting President, is tearing families apart as people become sucked into this utterly false conspiracy theory and alienate family members with their nonsense.
  • Lauren Witzke, the Delaware GOP candidate for the Senate seat currently held by Democrat Chris Coons, appeared on white-nationalist, anti-immigrant hate site VDare last month, not long before saying the Proud Boys provide security at her events. She has no chance to win, but still, Delaware Republicans should revoke their endorsement of her.
  • Draining the swamp update: A former patent litigator became a federal judge and is openly advising patent trolls to come to his court. This lets those trolls abuse the patent system (which has its own problems, but still) for their own profit, and ultimately American consumers will end up paying the cost.
  • The role-playing game designer outfit Roll20 is holding a 3-day virtual gaming con with proceeds to benefit a charity focused on racial justice.

Air, Land, and Sea.

Air, Land, and Sea is a great, simple, quick-to-learn, and highly portable two-player game that manages to bring something new despite the fact that the game is really just a deck of 18 cards. It’s very clever and reveals quite a bit more strategy with increased plays, yet it’s elegant and simple enough that almost anyone could play it.

Each player in Air, Land, & Sea will get a hand of six cards to start the game, and unless they get a card that allows them to draw another, that’s all they get. The cards have the values 1 through 6, one set for the Air, one for the Land, and one for the Sea. Players play one card at a time and may play them face up, using the value and text on the card’s face, to the theater matching the color on the card; or face down, getting a flat value of 2 and no benefit from the text, to any theater. They play each card to one of the three theaters of battle, the three names in the title of the game, and the sum of the values on their cards will be compared at end-game to the cards on their opponent’s side, taking into account any adjustments from face-up cards elsewhere on the table. If you play to a theater that already has one of your cards, the new card covers most of it, which matters for certain card abilities. If one player wins two of the three theaters, they win the game; the start player wins any ties. The winning player gets some number of points, up to 6, and the players play further games until one of them has 12 points.

There are two major twists, of course. One is that the cards with values from 1 to 5 have extra abilities that can range from invalidating an opponent’s card to allowing you to flip any uncovered card on the table (face-up or face-down) to changing the values of other cards in the same or adjacent theaters. Thus, the timing of when you play your cards is a huge part of strategy in Air, Land, & Sea, both in terms of lining up your own cards so that you can maximize the benefits of those card texts, and in hoping your opponent will play cards you can counteract with cards still in your hand.

Air, Land, and Sea set up on the tabletop

The other twist is that you can concede the game before it ends and deny your opponent the full 6 points they’d get if you played until both players had exhausted their hands. The number of points you receive for winning depends on how many cards are unplayed and whether you were the first or second player (which alternates in each game). It’s often clear early on that you can’t win at least one theater, because you didn’t get the right cards in your hand or because your opponent has stronger cards, and I’ve had several games where I had two cards left in my hand and realized they weren’t enough to win two of the three theaters for me, so concession was the right strategy. It lets you stop a game early so you live to fight another day.

The game does have a few quirks that might send you back to the rulebook or just require a few plays to get accustomed to them. One is that some cards, like Maneuver, require you to take the action in the text, rather than giving you the option. Another is that cards can be moved to another theater when covered, but never flipped. And there is a distinction between playing a card, which may trigger other card abilities, and moving one, which generally does not. Once you get the hang of those, though, the game flies by – no pun intended – rather quickly, and you can easily play an entire match in 20 minutes. And despite the short ruleset and small deck, there’s a lot of replay value because of the sheer number of possible combinations (my quick calculations show over 18,000 possible sets of 12 cards from 18, without considering the two different hands of 6, but I suck at combinatorics). I missed Air, Land, and Sea when it first came out – it was self-published in 2018, then picked up by Arcane Wonders and published in early 2019 – but at $15 on amazon it’s an easy addition to my best two-player games list.

Klawchat 10/8/20.

My latest board game review for Paste covers the gorgeous but ultimately unsatisfying Tang Garden. If you enjoy the chat below, check out my new book The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves, now out in hardcover.

Keith Law: My love is rotten to the core. Klawchat.

Todd Boss: Is there really such a thing as an “Undecided voter” right now?  In this partisan, narrative driven world, who at this point is still making up their minds on which way to vote?  Can we just FFD to 11/3 please?
Keith Law: A front office friend texted me that question last night – who the hell is still undecided? Either you’re in the cult, or you’re disgusted by the last four years (and especially the last six months). I don’t understand anyone who’s in between.
Keith Law: Of course, some dipshit journalist tracked down Ken Bone – who said he’s “undecided” – rather than, you know, finding marginalized voters who feel unrepresented by either party, or people who want to vote but find it hard to do so because of voter suppression, or just anyone who isn’t another white man.

Ben (MN): Oofta. The Twins. There is a lot of talk in MN about whether they should rely on some of their younger but near-ready prospects next year (Jeffers, Kiriloff, Rooker) or stand-pat with what they have. Any moves you think they should make? Trading Garver/Rosario seems to make sense, but they aren’t likely to get much in return.
Keith Law: LaVelle Neal was on my podcast this week and we talked about exactly that – he thinks they’ll trade Rosario, and at least look at trading Garver. Rooker’s upside is limited and I’m not sure where he gets to play if they bring Cruz back on a one-year deal.

Jack S: Keith–I was under the impression that teams’ minor league, or sub-MLB, facility this year was limited in how many players they could house.  Was there any way for teams to progress their lower tier (A ball, for example) prospects this season or gauge their skills in any way?  Are they still having some kind of Fall Ball?
Keith Law: Most teams are holding some sort of instructional league, expanding it for more players, but not every team is allowing other teams’ scouts to watch (and thus in return they can’t send their scouts around, which seems extremely short-sighted, even by the short-sighted standards of Myopic League Baseball). So we’ll hear some things on prospects but not a ton.

Jesse B: Randy Arozarena. SSS or could be a future All Star?
Keith Law: It’s obviously SSS, but he has a lot of ability and thus potential upside, especially given his defense.
Keith Law: But yeah, he hasn’t even played enough to lose ROY eligibility.

Bill G: Hi Keith.  Ignoring the pandemic and financial issues, and only focusing on the talent, would you recommend baseball contract to 28 teams, expand to 32 teams, or stay where they are at 30 teams.  Any insight to your reasoning would be appreciated.  Thanks!
Keith Law: Contraction is ridiculous – just a ploy by owners to try to extract public funds for stadiums. There’s enough talent out there for 32 teams – yes, even enough pitching – and there are underserved markets, like Nashville, that would be good for MLB to include. But MLB has also locked itself into markets that are probably going to have revenue issues over the long term and may be better off moving some franchises before expanding.

Tom: I realize it’s a ridiculously SSS in a bizarro baseball season, but have you seen/heard anything to believe that Tanner Houck’s apparent leap is real and sustainable?
Keith Law: I watched two of his three starts and both times his velocity tapered off pretty early, which would be a concern if that’s still true next year after a normal offseason and spring training. I also still don’t really see what his weapon will be vs LHB. He wrecked righties, though, with a nearly 40% K rate against them.

Sam: This year had a very large number of players make their MLB debut and teams pushed players that probably were not ready for MLB.  Assuming we have Minor League Baseball next season do you see a number of top level prospect like Joey Bart for example going back to the minors to continue to improve or will teams keep pushing these players and keep them on the Major league roster?
Keith Law: Bart I doubt. But I’m sure plenty of other rookies will go back to the minors to start the year for baseball or service-time reasons. Luis Patiño comes to mind for the former – great stuff, huge upside, wasn’t ready, at least not to start.

DRB: So you don’t like Deftones and you think Tame Impala’s last album is his best? I’m sorry Klaw, but when it comes to music, you’re like those people who claimed Junior Lake was a future star.  In all serious though, I will say I’ve gotten a lot of great album recs from you, but none of them ever became all-stars in my rotation.
Keith Law: Those aren’t even close to my most controversial music opinions.

Matt: How do you feel about Willi Castro going forward? Obviously he’s not going to continue to BABIP .450 like he did this season but his BB rate went up and K rate went down as the season progressed as did the quality of his contact so if those trends continue they may help offset some of the inevitable BABIP regression.  To sum it up, do you think he could be an .850OPS/350wOBA type bat going forward?
Keith Law: I’ve generally been high on Castro because everyone raved about his feel for the game, and because I thought the swing would work for contact, so I think he could hit enough to be a regular somewhere. I was surprised to see that he wasn’t very good at short or third this year, though; I thought he could stay at short or be very good at 2b/3b.

davealden53: I know this story has become old news but would you have signed the letter in Harper’s about intellectual freedom?
Keith Law: I would not; I think Isaac Chotiner’s interview in the New Yorker of one of the signatories gets at the reasons why I wouldn’t.

John Olerud: Not sure how much you listen to the announcers in games. But I was watching/listening to the Atlanta/Marlins game yesterday and Buck Showalter’s good ol’ boy commentary was a little awkward to listen to at times, in its subtle insinuations of exactly who were the true “baseballers” amongst the guys on the field.  Indeed, I don’t think he even had any insight as to how this might have come off, but if you care or are at liberty to comment, I imagine his “takes” aren’t exactly unique among the managerial ranks in baseball?
Keith Law: I did not hear this, but what you describe is definitely a common view within baseball. I am automatically suspicious of any opinions like that because they can very easily be cover for racial prejudices (not saying that’s true of Buck, I didn’t hear his comments, and I’ve never heard anyone say they thought he was racist).

Jason: Assuming Atlanta actually reaches the NLCS, would it make more sense to have a bullpen day for Game 3 with Wright starting Game 4, knowing that Game 5 would either be the Game 1 starter on short rest (Fried, unless the NLDS goes 5 games) or another bullpen day?
Keith Law: What’s the alternative in your mind there – bullpen game 4, Wright 3?

davealden53: Willians Astudillo isn’t a great ballplayer but his skillset is fun and potentially useful with the right utilization.  However, the Twins seem unsure what to do with him.  Would he benefit from a clean start with a different organization?  What could Minnesota get for him?  A 100 to 150 prospect?
Keith Law: I don’t think he gets a legit prospect in return. Fine player, and very fun to watch, but ultimately not that valuable.

Todd Boss: How disappointed are you that Trump refuses to participate in a 2nd debate?  I mean, the first one was such a civilized, informative discussion…
Keith Law: After he did himself no favors in the first debate, I expected him to find a way out of a second one.
Keith Law: In a virtual debate, the moderator could just mute him when he interrupts or goes well beyond his time. That’s his worst nightmare.

John: When do you see Jeter Downs making his MLB debut?
Keith Law: Next year (2021) for sure. Would be shocked if we don’t see him.

Frank: Has any team in recent history been more of a favorite to win the World Series than the Dodgers are this year?  I know you always talk about anything can happen in a short series but is there anything you have seen so far, regular season or post season to make you believe the Dodgers dont win the WS?
Keith Law: Both of those things can be true at the same time. They could be the strongest favorites ever, and still only have a slightly better than random chance to win it all.
Keith Law: I do agree they’re the favorites, though. I picked a Rays/Dodgers WS and just as a fan of great teams would be very happy to see that. Also that’s the one AL playoff team left that has never won a WS vs the NL team with the second-longest drought (SD has never won).

bighen: I know you haven’t been a huge fan of Gimenez and have liked Rosario in the past – any change in thought there? I realize not a lot to go on.  I think the ceiling for Gimenez is a lot lower but he seems to be a much better fielder for a team that badly needs some good defenders.   Do you think the Mets can trade Rosario for anything of note at this point – perhaps as part of a package to land a legit CF ?
Keith Law: I think Rosario would still have value because other teams will still remember how they rated him as a prospect and figure the Mets screwed him up (which is fair, I think; they’ve had a lot of development issues over the last 5+ years). Most teams, especially teams that are building or just always hunting for value (Oakland, TB), love to try to fix out-of-favor prospects. And yeah, I would too. As for Gimenez, he has a soft regular ceiling and I think you saw it this year.

Greg: Why don’t pitchers like Dustin May and Brusdar Graterol get more strikeouts with such filthy stuff?
Keith Law: May gets a shit-ton of ground balls. Graterol’s stuff is hard but I don’t think it’s “filthy” the way you might mean.

That Guy in Detroit: I guess the first shots of the civil war have been fired in Michigan.  Sigh
Keith Law: I would have guessed Alabama, but it was inevitable.

Jon: After watching Alex Reyes, Genesis Cabrera, and Austin Gomber this year I’m really excited about the cardinals future rotation. Do you think all 3 can be starters in the future?
Keith Law: No, maybe, probably, in order. Reyes hasn’t stayed healthy, ever, and the delivery doesn’t give me reason to think he will.

DRB: Could you share your thoughts on Klentaks tenure? How much blame for you give him for the Phillies awfulness the last few years?
Keith Law: Meghan Montemurro has a huge piece coming Friday on this, with contributions from me on their drafts and player development. It’s complicated, and some of the problems predate Klentak, too.

Paul: At this point I feel “undecided” is code for “I’m probably going to vote for Trump, I’m just waiting for some minor Biden gaff to give me an excuse to do so”
Keith Law: Agreed. Or, I suppose, a Biden voter who is surrounded by Trump voters, and similarly feels unwilling to say so publicly.

G: Is there a chance Ke’Bryan Hayes actually gets ROY votes? I was happy to see you picked him, but figured his short(er) stay in the majors would cost him votes.
Keith Law: I bet he gets a lot of 2nd/3rd place votes but maybe nobody except for Pittsburgh voters puts him first, because of what I wrote about voting early or just because they dismissed him on playing time.

Jimbo: Thoughts on Zac Gallen going fwd ? I know you were very high on Jazz but I don’t think the marlins would do that deal today do you ?
Keith Law: I think both teams are still extremely happy with the deal. Gallen is almost certainly going to be on my next “players i was wrong about” column, probably next September. He’s much better than I realized, even after scouting him live when he was still with STL.

bighen: I still know quite a few bright people that are undecided. I find it shocking but they are almost all wealthier people that are worried that a Biden win will deeply hurt their finances.  It sounds selfish and seemingly has no basis in fact but that is the repeated mantra I hear
Keith Law: I think that view is objectively unsustainable, though. Nothing Biden could do on tax or economic policy will do as much damage as our government’s inadequate response to the pandemic has. (That’s without even arguing that your long-term financial health depends on some sort of climate policy other than “sweep the forest floors.”)

Louie: You’re Theo Epstein. If it is time to break up the band, who do you keep on offense besides Happ, Heyward and Contreras? With the FA clocks ticking for KB, Rizzo, Baez and Schwarber?
Keith Law: Well, if I’m Theo Epstein, I know I have a year left on my deal, and I’m looking at the opportunity in Philly, and rumors that there may be one next year in Seattle, and maybe even talk to the Angels or Mets to see if I can get the autonomy I would need in either spot. But to your question, I’d pay Baez, and try to make Rizzo a Cub for the rest of his career, but Bryant is going to FA no matter what.

Bob (LA): Does this series between the Dodgers and Padres make you think Logan White could be a good hire for the Angels or Phillies? Both Teams mention wanting to draft and develop better. Hes partly responsible for building the core of both of these teams.
Keith Law: Great name, although I think the Angels want an experienced GM who’ll try to win right now rather than develop. I’ve heard Bobby Heck with the Phillies and Mets, at least. Ray Montgomery’s and Tony Lacava’s names have come up. Those are all names from the scouting world; I’m assuming that there will also be at least as many candidates from the front office/analytics side, but I haven’t heard them yet.

Jimbo: Thoughts on the job Mike Hazen has done in AZ ? Seems like a C- or D job he has done. Also is he handcuffed by poor ownership/CEO ?
Keith Law: Oh, I think he’s done a well above-average job. System is way better than it was.

Jimbo: how has exercise been going ? Losing weight ? More energy ?
Keith Law: I lost 8-10 pounds since I started running and now that’s just holding steady, which is fine. More energy, but more soreness too since I’m trying to run 5 km each time out.

Mike: Biggest positive surprise of the teams that did not make the playoffs? Giants, Orioles or Royals?
Keith Law: I’m floored the Orioles won that many games with that pitching staff.

Nate: Keith, if you were Rick Hahn, would you be looking to add “big named” free agent starter or would you roll with a rotation rounded out by Dunning, Cease, Kopech, and possibly Stiever after Giolito and Keuchel?
Keith Law: I think that rotation is more than good enough, but if you can get an established above-average or better starter, you should probably do so, and then see if, say, Cease and Stiever/Dunning can get you another piece you need.
Keith Law: Or those could be the same thing – trade two young starters for a guy who is higher probability for 2021.

Pat: Your opening remark answers my question. As an 80’s child & metal head, I assumed you were a VH fan. Eddie’s death effected me more than most of the other 80’s icons. Just a singular talent who I was blessed to see 2x in concert (with Hagar, too young for DLR Era). A shame to see he couldn’t control his demons.
Keith Law: I was a huge fan of his fretwork – people call him an innovator, but he didn’t invent two-hand tapping or anything else, it is that he did that shit better than almost anyone else in rock history. Just watch his hands – it’s like watching peak Stanley Jordan, like they’re hypermobile or had fewer bones or something because it seems like no human should be able to move their hands like that. I was never as big a fan of VH’s songs as I was of his playing, though, and of course his bizarre belief that a metal guitar pick caused his throat cancer and not several decades of smoking is the sort of denialism that makes me stabby.

Kevin: Why can’t we have some broadcasters who at least understand analytics?
Keith Law: Because the powers that be are still operating from a 50-year-old playbook that says you have to have ex-players in the booth.

Josh: While there probably aren’t many undecided voters, about 40% of eligible adults will not vote at all. If only the media would frame the election around reaching out to those people (who happen to mostly be marginalized groups, people of color, and/or low-income)with policy designed to benefit them and calling out voter suppression. The myth of the engaged but undecided voter is incredibly damaging to the political process.
Keith Law: And the challenge of getting more of those people to vote should be more important to everyone who cares about our democracy … except Sen. Mike Lee, I suppose.

Rod: Still a small sample, but I’m surprised by how good Ian Anderson’s changeup is, despite the lack of spin.  It feels like teams will eventually scout it better, but his delivery hides the ball well.  Has his ceiling risen or do you still project mid-rotation starter?
Keith Law: Changeups don’t spin, though. His curveball doesn’t have great spin, and I think it’s a clear third pitch for him, but hitters do not see that changeup at all and I think it’s at least a 70 pitch.
Keith Law: (Which I would not have said in February, BTW.)

Cole: Do you think Billy Eppler’s firing by the Angels was warranted? And is Dombrowski really the best choice for their GM opening?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t have fired Eppler or Klentak, but those owners wanted scapegoats.

Moises: Any info on Mackenzie Gore? With the lack ofstarting pitching on Padres, I would have assumed he would’ve been called up. Mechanics? Injury?
Keith Law: Nothing I can report but you are asking the right question. He should be up, and he isn’t. What does that tell us

addoeh: How do you like your Van Halen?  Diamond Dave or Red Rocker.
Keith Law: DLR all the way.

mike sixel: Just stopping by to say thanks for the game, book, music, movie reviews. And to recommend Odin’s Ravens…have a great day.
Keith Law: I’ve heard good things about that game … I think it’s the one where the original Kickstarter guy took off with the money and another publisher came in, took over the game’s rights, and fulfilled it?

TC: If you’re starting a team in 2021, who would you rather have? Soto or Tatis Jr?
Keith Law: Tatis Jr.

Paul: I haven’t looked at the numbers yet, but it feels like there are a ton of home runs now in the playoffs after a bit of a dip in the regular season. Have they switched back to the super balls or its just a bunch of good home run hitters in the playoffs?
Keith Law: We need data, which I assume we’ll have soon, but I agree it at least looks like the ball is flying farther.

Manny machado: Am i a hypocrite for criticizing graterol’s celebration
Keith Law: Yes. Bad look.

Henry: Just want to thank you for the excellent Baratza grinder recommendation a few weeks ago. It’s made my pour over so much better.
Keith Law: They also have incredible customer service. Love that grinder.

Tom: Ryan Weathers, potential number 2 sp?
Keith Law: No, not based on anything I’ve seen or heard.

Tom: O neil cruz needs to be fired into the sun…But it’s crazy how little media attention this has gotten. He was a top prospect and now gotta think he will never see the big leagues
Keith Law: Probably getting less attention because it didn’t happen in the US and there were a lot of conflicting rumors about it. If he’s convicted, or MLB suspends him for a long time, it’ll probably be a bigger story.

Dr. Bob: I think your most controversial musical opinion is not liking Bruce Springsteen.
Keith Law: Certainly my most controversial in the press box.

Rick: Since the padres called up Patino, Morejon, and Weathers over Gore, do we need to re-think Gore’s prospect value?
Keith Law: No. Morejon was already in the majors. I answered on Gore above but I don’t think your premise supports your conclusion.

Alex: MLB is selling tickets to the World Series.  Personally seems crazy to me for so little revenue with the potential for your biggest event of the year to become super spreader and the PR disaster that would come from it.  If given a ticket would you go?
Keith Law: I agree completely. There should be no fans.

Zac: Should the Tigers pursue Aj Hinch or Alex Cora?
Keith Law: Yes. Both were very good managers. Both have served their penalties.

Josh: Assuming Biden wins and Trump is unsuccessful in whatever he tries to do post results being verified, I have a very strong sense that he will deliberately try and sabotage the office in some way that causes a catastrophic issue that Biden is forced to deal with in some way… thoughts?
Keith Law: Maybe, but other than fighting Barrett’s nomination, there isn’t a whole lot the Democrats can do – and their focus should be on securing the biggest possible win in November.

Matt: Keith – l was surprised to see Bauer 5th in your Cy Young rankings. I love your work and dislike Bauer personally, but I found myself wondering whether his past behavior affected your ranking.  I’m curious to know (1) why Bauer wasn’t higher, particularly compared to Fried who pitched 26% fewer innings, and (2) whether it is difficult to be objective with respect to someone who has a history of ugly behavior.
Keith Law: His behavior wasn’t a factor at all. That’s not anywhere in the voting criteria. I don’t think many people realized that he was 5th in bWAR for NL pitchers, and 3rd in fWAR, which I think makes any spot 3-4-5 defensible. If you want to argue he should have been 4th on my ballot, sure, I’m not that wedded to the order I had. I don’t think he belonged in 1st or 2nd, and people arguing over a difference of one or two spots on the ballot need to find something else to do.

Guest: Last night, in the year 2020, after a 60 game season, Smoltz actually touted Davies’ 4-1 record.
Keith Law: Smoltz has been a huge disappointment on TV and I don’t understand why he seems to have a lifetime appointment to the job. He disdains the present game, doesn’t understand analytics, and doesn’t even seem to grasp what scouts do or how things like prospect rankings work.

Dr. Bob: One advantage of the neutral sites: No tomahawk chop for Braves “home” games.
Keith Law: Excellent point.

Jason: I saw your report on Ian Anderson’s first start, and it was of course positive but a little hesitant on him having top-of-the-rotation stuff.  Do you have similar feelings after watching the postseason starts?
Keith Law: Yes.

Kiko Calero’s slider: Does his performance this postseason alter your future projection of Ian Anderson?
Keith Law: No. Literally no postseason performance is going to alter future projections on a player. That’s about the best possible formula for making large errors on players.
Keith Law: Hang on, Hall of Famer Brian Doyle is on line 2…

CR: Just a little anecdote from my morning in case any undecided voters are in this chat and wondering what voting for Trump aligns you with: Two Trump/Pence canvassers came to my house, a young guy at the door and an older guy in a car. The young guy was fine, just asked if I had any questions about the election or anything. I said no, that I was pretty confident in my vote for Biden and Democrats down ballot. Nothing more. Very courteous and neighborly. No big deal. The young goes back to the car and gets in, says something to the old guy, probably about me not being interested, and the old guy, clear as day, goes, “F*cking Jew. What do you expect?” before driving off. So if you’re undecided and still considering voting for Trump, know that this sort of antisemitism, and about a million other bigoted beliefs, are what you would be consenting to from your president and his supports.
Keith Law: I wish you’d recorded that one … would have been pretty newsworthy.

Joel: That Angels GM job, doesn’t seem like a good one?
Keith Law: You have Mike Trout and some decent prospects. You also have a meddling owner, a very involved team President, and the mandate to win yesterday.

Trav: More of a beg to the readers than a question: voting is not enough. If you can, *please* write postcards/call/text/start conversations. We need to run through the tape on 11/3.
Keith Law: We’re writing postcards tonight for Kyle Evans Gay, our candidate for the State Senate, who is trying to flip a district that has been red for over 20 years.
Keith Law: So, yeah, get involved. There’s still a lot of time left to make a difference.

Appa Yip Yip: What can we realistically expect from Alejandro Kirk, and what’s the pie in the sky outcome Jays fans are already assuming is reality?
Keith Law: Realistic would be fringe regular, but ceiling is All-Star, and I think that’s more than some pie in the sky outcome.

Morris: The narrative around Hosmer being some sort of postseason producer drives me a bit nuts. He’s not a good hitter in the regular season (278/336/435) but he’s somehow much worse in the postseason (257/311/389) and despite his ring saves his worst for the biggest moments – 224/273/286 in his two World Series. Why does he get so much love from announcers and analysts in the playoffs?
Keith Law: Because facts don’t matter. They don’t look this stuff up and there’s no accountability in those roles.
Keith Law: I have watched the playoffs on mute almost every inning because so many of these guys refuse to do the most basic requirements of their jobs. It’s one thing to have a questionable opinion on a player or something that happens in game. It is another to be dead fucking wrong on a fact you could confirm in ten seconds on the internet.

John: For what it’s worth, I’m still undecided between Biden and a third party vote.  I’ve always voted Republican before 2016, and voted third party then.  I was leaning toward Biden this year, but the Democrats’ threat to pack the Supreme Court is a big issue to me, because it would further undermine one of the few remaining respectable institutions.  If Biden would commit not to do that, it would likely secure my vote.
Keith Law: The GOP is packing the court right now. I’m not sure what your third party vote will do, though, other than maybe make you feel a bit better.

xxx(yyy): what have you cooked the most during COVID?
Keith Law: Because we joined a CSA in May, it has to be corn. I’ve never eaten so much corn in my life.

Tom: You were high on DiPoto and Eppler prior to their hires. Do you think the lack of progress for the Angels is a reflection on them or is it ultimately Moreno?
Keith Law: Moreno is clearly a large part of the problem.

Jason: Should a 15 year old really be trashing her family on TikTok even if the mom is morally bankrupt? (i.e. the Conways)
Keith Law: Why not? What’s the counterargument here?

xxx(yyy): how much would someone have to pay you to go cover the World Series in person? (no, seriously – I assume that’s the only way you go)
Keith Law: My answer would be a flat no. Not with fans there.

xxx(yyy): What is the biggest positive about working at The Athletic vs The Worldwide Leader?
Keith Law: There are many differences, but I was tired of ESPN’s obsession with social media.

That Guy in Detroit: Ian Anderson should start going by “Aqualung.”  And if he doesn’t, maybe the President* should
Keith Law: I don’t know what his warmup music is but I hope it’s Tull.

Fred: Please tell me the White Sox get rid of Renteria. He was in way over his head in the playoffs and coached the team into a loss. I cant recall seeing that many coaching blunders in one series, let alone an all or nothing game.
Keith Law: They could do better. I don’t think he’s a very good tactical manager. I don’t know what he’s like with individual players, but I do think he’s cost them some wins or at least some runs with in-game mistakes.

Joe: You mentioned in your video chat that the Angels should look at someone in the Yankees player development option for their new GM.  They did that the last time and that is why they are in the mess they are in.
Keith Law: If you don’t see that they are far better off today than they were when Eppler took over, I don’t know what to tell you. His tenure was a net positive. And had they signed Cole this past winter – which they tried to do, at least – I don’t think we’re having this conversation.

Bill: Dan Dickerson, the Tigers radio PBP man, does a great job of blending analytics into his broadcast. In the case of Willi Castro, he’s constantly bringing up how is BABIP is unsustainable despite his obvious talent.
Keith Law: That’s great to hear. Hats off to Dan.

Aaron Gershoff: In response to Kevin re: analytics and broadcasters: David Cone for the Yankees. He gets it. Hes a rarity though, for sure.
Keith Law: Yes, I can confirm this, and I wish they used him more.

Mark: I often have trouble getting pizza dough off the peel onto the stone without sticking. I’ve tried cornmeal and flour,it might just be my technique. I’ve read about making the pizza on parchment paper on top of the peel, putting i on the stone and then pulling the paper out after a few minutes and letting it cook on the stone.Have  you ever tried something like this ?
Keith Law: I’ve done that in the home oven. Couldn’t do it in the outdoor oven, since it’s too hot, but it works fine even at 500 degrees as long as you keep the paper fairly small. You also could just use more cornmeal/flour than you think you would possibly need.

TJ: Watching my beloved Detroit Tigers, I noticed that Daz Cameron struggled while trying to pull everything when he first came up but started to have more success (and make better contact) once he started going to right field. Is this indicative of Cameron’s minor league career or just SSS noise?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s an effective dead-pull hitter … he doesn’t have his dad’s power. He’ll be a good player if he sticks to using the whole field and tries to maximize his contact.

Matt: Are you concerned about Paddack?  I recall you’ve always said he needed a third pitch, but he seems to have regressed badly in the short season.
Keith Law: Still believe he needs a better breaking ball, but the short season is just a SSS for everyone and I’m not going to overreact to it.

Mac: Any thoughts of going to Ft Myers this weekend for the HS jamboree?
Keith Law: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Keith Law: no

Rob: Hi Keith.  Should the sale of the Mets go through, what are your thoughts on the state of the franchise/front office.  Any sense of how far behind/off-base the Wilpons were in what they were doing/neglecting.  We all know how terrible they were, but how big a job does Steve Cohen have on his hands after ~20 years of the Wilpons should he intend to right that ship.
Keith Law: This isn’t news, but they’ve drafted very well for many years now, and their biggest problems have been 1) some lack of development and 2) BVW trading those prospects away. Alonso, Smith, Conforto, now Peterson – all drafted by the Tanous/Tramuta group, who also drafted Kelenic, Dunn, Kay, and Woods-Richardson. To borrow a line from 2020 Mercury Prize winner Michael Kiwanuka, they ain’t the problem.
Keith Law: And that makes the Mets job a bit more appealing than the Angels. You have people and a process in place that you can leave alone, and thus focus on other needs.

Larry: do you still consider Dylan Cease a starter and if so what adjustments do you think he needs to make?
Keith Law: I do. His fastball is playing down from its velocity, and he should probably work more with offspeed stuff, and/or perhaps try something different like cutting the fastball occasionally so hitters don’t sit on it. It’s easy to just say “command,” and sure, he’d be better if he located it more effectively, but I think altering the pitch mix or tweaking its characteristics are more realistic.

Sam: A thought for any undecided voters out there.  Sometimes on close cases, Chief Justice Roberts will subvert his own preferences and vote with the majority, so as to create a 6-3 or 7-2 decision, because it’s better for the Supreme Court’s reputation not to have many 5-4 decisions.  I feel  like there’s a parallel in the election.  If either side narrowly wins, people are going to take to the streets and argue that the election was stolen — more so than most years.  It doesn’t seem like there’s much chance of a Trump landslide.  But you can do your part to create a Biden win by a safe margin, and avoid all the messiness/litigation/upheaval that might come from a tight election.  Our country doesn’t need all that right now.
Keith Law: Very reasonable points.

John: I know some people felt Williams should be in consideration for ROY.  Was his exclusion on your list from limited innings or more your preference for career potential or something else?
Keith Law: Hayes, Cronenworth, Bohm, and Gonsolin were all more valuable than he was in 2020. And on top of that, yes, he’s a pure reliever, with lower projected career value.

Jason: So the virus is no big deal? Says the guy with a army of the best doctors/medical facilities at his disposal, experimental antibody cocktails, remdesivir, steroids, etc. What a slap in the face to the average person.
Keith Law: A bigger slap in the face to everyone who’s lost someone to this no-big-deal virus, but yeah, I agree.

Moe Mentum: Do you have a “best catch you’ve ever seen” pat answer? Based on difficulty and/or circumstances?
Keith Law: On TV – I always think of Ken Griffey Sr robbing a HR in left field at Yankee Stadium where his torso was all higher than the wall. In person – not sure it was the best or just the most recent incredible play, but Odubel Herrera robbed a HR at CBP a few years ago, when I was there for Acuña’s second big-league series, that was incredible.

Guest: Phillies doesnt seem like a great job either. Zero prospects, need help all over the diamond except RF and an entirely new bullpen, and a mandate to win yesterday.
Keith Law: “Zero prospects” is false. Also, Bohm is clearly a keeper.

Bill: I thought the moderator did a poor job last night, but short of a kill switch I’m not sure I could have done any better.  How should a moderator handle a candidate whose aim is to bulldoze the proceedings.
Keith Law: The Republicans have decided to exploit this flaw in the system and the Democrats should either do the same thing – breaking the debates completely – or refuse to participate unless there’s an effective way to stop the interruption/exceeding time limits tactic.

Mets Fan: Hi “Don’t Pack the Court” John — if you’re concerned about court packing, you need to vote Democratic; otherwise, you’re rewarding McConnell for escalating and leaving future Democratic presidents really no choice. Biden may pack the court but he may not (and maybe he’ll come up with a better solution, e.g. a term limits amendment). But no future Democratic president will hesitate.
Keith Law: Exactly.

Jeff: Hey Undecided John: it’s called “expanding” the court and it has happened several times before and is completely and constitutionally legal. You’re falling for the Republican’ ploy by calling it “packing”
Keith Law: Also true.

Morris: How should I think about Madrigal? Hit 340 with no patience and no pop, thanks to that 365 BABIP, but if he’s not strong enough to hit for power, is he going to be able to maintain such a high BABIP?
Keith Law: He’s not. Nobody has done that in decades.

Joe: What are your thoughts on Will Smith’s bat going forward?
Keith Law: I’m in. He’s going to make several All-Star teams.

Jordan: Game you have most enjoyed watching this postseason?
Keith Law: The Padres/Cardinals game where San Diego came back from down 6-2 to win.

Todd: Can I trust the polls? Same thing happened in 2016
Keith Law: The Upshot at the New York Times shows what the results would be if current state polls are as far off as they were in 2016. As of last night, that still gave Biden 316 electoral votes, and thus the win.

Chris: It looks like the universal DH is here to stay. Most people say that they support it because they hate watching pitchers hit.  My issue with it has always been that I don’t like unathletic players that can’t play defense to be able to have a spot. Why should these players be given an out when they can’t play the entire game?
Keith Law: This is essentially the “appeal to nature” fallacy. “Playing the entire game” is an artificial construct. Who decided that you had to play the field to play the “entire game,” or that players who are exceptional at one thing (hitting or fielding) should not get playing time because they’re not good enough at the other of the two?

John Olerud: To echo everyone else, thanks for taking the time! Your insights on all matters baseball and otherwise are very appreciated, especially in the world of sports coverage which… well I don’t have to tell you how vapid it can be. Cheers!
Luis: Finally had a chance to get on time into one of you chats. Just wish everything is going well during this crazy times. thanks for the content, specially the baseball and boargames portions. Greetings from this little country of Guatemala
Keith Law: Thank you both and to those of you who’ve expressed similar sentiments here and elsewhere. I’ve been doing fewer chats this year because I haven’t been able to go out and see players as usual, or talk to scouts who are seeing players, and also because this year has been so exhausting – even with good things happening in my own life – that sometimes talking about innocuous matters feels frivolous. But I appreciate all of you who’ve stuck with me this year and reached out to check on me or just say thanks. I appreciate all of it. Stay safe, wear your masks, and please vote.

Grief is the Thing with Feathers.

I recently included a link to a podcast that featured authors David Mitchell and Jasper Fforde where, at the end of the program(me), they each had to recommend one book and make the case for it in some brief period of time – I think it was three minutes – after which the host would choose the winner. Fforde didn’t take it very seriously, naming the owner’s manual for his car, but Mitchell recommended a book by Max Porter called Grief is the Thing with Feathers, reading a passage from it as part of his allotted time. The prose was so unlike anything I’d heard before that I felt like I had to read it immediately – easy enough to do since the book is a scant 114 pages – to see how Porter could stretch that lyrical yet dark language into something the length of a novella.

The novel is certainly about grief, telling the story of a young father of two boys whose wife has just died unexpectedly, and who is understandably consumed by his grief. He is assisted, in a way, in his grieving process by the Crow, a probably-imaginary being who speaks to the Dad and protects the three of them, but isn’t always as helpful as he thinks he is, and brings his own stories of woe and insecurity. The narrative rotates from the Dad to the Crow to the Boys and back again as it traces the path of their grief from shortly after the wife and mother has died to the point where the Crow decides to leave because his work is done.

Porter’s technique here means that the book is all dialogue and internal monologue, yet he infuses so much of it – notably Crow’s, but the Dad’s as well – with imagery and a sort of curious wordplay, where Crow seems to be trying words out for the sounds of them, that it comes off a lot like poetry. Prose doesn’t look or sound or feel like this, at least not in the sorts of literature I inhabit, and it enhanced the sense of magical realism throughout the book in a way that made Crow seem far less ridiculous, even when Dad explicitly refers to him to the Boys as imaginary.

The grief of the father in Grief is the Thing with Feathers comes through intensely on these pages, with no efforts by Porter to soften or deflect the blows. The fact that the wife died without warning – it is explained how later in the book – gives the Dad’s grief an acute edge to it, combining the emotional abyss with the realization that he is now a single father of two boys who will now look to him for the emotional and physical support they had received from their mother. Porter tries to take us inside his suffering, and then gives us Crow as the foil who challenges the father in a way that helps the father towards healing without obviously (or mawkishly) doing so.

The Crow’s passages are the most memorable, and the most poetic. He’s part fabulist, part black humorist, part wordsmith: “He flew a genuflection … Ley lines flung him cross-country with no time for grief, power cables catapulted loose bouquets of tar-black bone and feather and other crows rained down from the sky.” Perhaps my favorite of Crow’s words are a bit of apparent doggerel, starting with “Gormin’ere, worrying horrid. Hello elair, krip krap krip krap who’s that lazurusting beans of my cut-out?” but ending with the revelation that “I do this, perform some unbound crow stuff, for him.”

Mitchell is himself a brilliant writer, and his recommendation was good enough for me to read Grief is the Thing with Feathers, especially when I saw how short it was. It’s one of the most remarkable novellas – not a novel, certainly, not when it’s probably less than 30,000 words – I’ve read in years, like little else I’ve ever seen, for its prose, and for its unflinching look inside the grief of losing one’s partner at the peak of love and life.

Next up: I’m treating myself with something a bit more fun than my other recent reads, Lois McMaster Bujold’s Falling Free, the first book (by chronological order) in her Vorkosigan saga series of novels.