→ March 4, 2021
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Pieces of a Woman.

Vanessa Kirby stole so many scenes in the first two seasons of The Crown, often overshadowing her co-star Claire Foy, who played the actual Queen of England. As the tragic (and later tragicomic) figure Princess Margaret, she was by turns charming, fashionable, jealous, and, as in Margaret’s real life, heartbroken and betrayed. I’d seen her previously in the short-lived BBC series The Hour, but didn’t recognize her when I saw her in 2020’s Mr. Jones or when she took on the role of Margaret.

Pieces of a Woman represents her critical breakthrough, as her command performance as a woman grieving the loss of a baby during a home birth gone awry earned her the Best Actress Award at the Venice Film Festival in 2020, a Golden Globe nomination for the same, and, most likely, an Oscar nomination as well. The movie is uneven, and the resolution of the story feels more like fantasy than reality on multiple levels, but Kirby is a knockout in this role and makes this arduous film well worth the time investment.

Kirby plays Martha, a very pregnant woman whose husband, Sean (Shia LaBoeuf), is a blue-collar worker and clearly not respected by her mother (Ellen Burstyn). Martha and Sean have chosen a home birth, but their midwife isn’t available when labor begins, so they call another midwife their original one recommended. The new midwife, Eva (Molly Parker), seems a little overmatched when things start to go wrong, and after it seems like they’re out of the woods and their baby girl is born, she starts to turn blue and stops breathing. Martha and Sean are both left to grieve their loss, but both Sean and Martha’s mother become invested in the criminal case against Eva, pulling them away from Martha when she needs them, and the family dynamics become even more complicated when Martha’s cousin Suzanne (Sarah Snook) is the prosecuting attorney.

The film opens with its best scene, a 24-minute single-shot depiction of the labor, delivery, and death of the baby that is intense not just because you know how it’s going to end, but because it’s so slow relative to most films. This is a more detailed depiction of childbirth than you get in most films, and it’s only to the movie’s benefit, especially because it shows the physical labor (no pun intended) required of the mother and thus further underlines both the level of Martha’s anguish and the emotional distance she feels from everyone around her, including her husband, when their baby dies.

Kirby is just powerful in this role, even in grief; there’s no lower gear anywhere in the performance, regardless of the mood or situation. She’s especially good in scenes with her mother – and Burstyn, who seems unlikely to get an Oscar nod, is also excellent – who seems completely unable to understand her daughter in multiple conversations. She’s also good in scenes with LaBoeuf, who is … fine. He’s received praise for his performance, or at least did before FKA Twigs accused him of emotional and physical abuse; I couldn’t stand him in American Honey, either, and I just couldn’t find him credible here, but I concede that it’s difficult to separate the actor from the character in this case. At least here, we rarely see him without Kirby, who is very much the emotional center of the movie.

The ending, however, doesn’t live up to the previous 90-plus minutes. We end up in a courtroom, where the case is resolved with something out of Law & Order – well-acted, but, still, unrealistic and maudlin – that is an ostensible attempt to show the end of Martha’s emotional arc. I don’t buy it, because it’s not something we would see in the real world, and because Martha’s arc would have no real conclusion. My lay understanding of the psychology of grief is that it doesn’t go away; it may fade, or just be blunted by time, but it persists. That point leads me to wonder if the final scene is meant to be real, fantasy, or just ambiguous, which is something I’ll leave you to answer in the comments if you’re so inclined.

There’s more than enough in Pieces of a Woman to recommend it, even with the flawed ending and my personal distaste for LaBoeuf. The opening scene is masterful, and I imagine people will refer to it for years the way they did The Player‘s opening scene. Burstyn will probably miss out on what would be her seventh Oscar nomination, especially with Jodie Foster winning a Golden Globe for The Mauritanian, but she’s superb in a pivotal role, a better foil for Kirby in character and in ability. And, if nothing else has convinced you, watch it for Kirby, who may not win in a stacked Best Actress category, but did deliver one of the best performances of 2020.

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→ March 3, 2021
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Music update, February 2021.

My first draft prospect ranking for 2021 is now up for The Athletic subscribers.

I didn’t post a playlist for January, as that month didn’t give me anywhere near enough new tracks even if I’d accepted that I’d have to make the playlist shorter than usual, but now, with two-plus months since my last music post, we’re back to normal again. Three great albums have helped kick off 2021, with a few stragglers from 2020, and a slew of singles heralding upcoming LPs from artists new and old. As usual, I’ve pushed the heavier material to the back of the list. You can access the playlist here if you can’t see the widget below.

Kid Kapichi – Working Man’s Town. This Time Next Year, the debut record from this Hastings quartet, sounds like something Alex Turner might have cooked up if he wanted to do something grittier and more abrasive. The record is brilliant, witty, and surprisingly full of hooks, featuring this track, “Sardines,” and “Don’t Kiss Me (I’m Infected).”

Arlo Parks – Hope. Parks’ debut album Collapsed in Sunbeams dropped in January, featuring all of the great singles she’d released in the preceding eighteen months, including “Hurt,” “Green Eyes,” “Black Dog,” and “Caroline.” This track has more of her gorgeous vocals, sharp lyrics, and soulful, jazzy (but not jazz) backing music, making it the best of the new songs on the record.

Gum Country – Somewhere. As the year came to a merciful close, I found more and more best-of lists to peruse, including some great genre-specific ones over at Paste. Gum Country’s debut album Somewhere took the last spot (that is, #50) on Paste‘s top 50 albums of 2020 list, and it’s worthy of the praise, combining elements of power pop, indie rock, and psychedelia, like Velocity Girl met My Bloody Valentine by way of early Mercury Rev.

Black Honey – Believer. Black Honey have been among my favorite indie pop/rock bands for at least three years now, and they put out two songs since my last playlists went up, this straight-up pop track and the much harsher “Disinfect,” although even that song has an undeniable hook.

HAERTS – Shivering. HAERTS’ third album Dream Nation will be out on March 12th, and I can’t wait, even though I think you could argue their sound hasn’t really changed in the nine years since they first appeared.

The Lottery Winners feat. Frank Turner – Start Again. I missed the Lottery Winners’ self-titled debut album last March, but it’s fun, hooky indie-pop, and their sound works really well with Turner’s vocals here.

Royal Blood – Typhoons. I’m cautiously optimistic that Royal Blood are going to correct course a little bit and get closer to the heavy hooks of their debut album, although nothing will ever touch “Out of the Black.” This song really grooves with more bottom than a good splitter.

FRITZ – Jan 1. FRITZ’s sophomore album Pastel feels like something out of the mid-90s, kind of Lotion meets early Lush, fuzzy, reverbed-out, guitar-driven indie-pop with a coming-of-age theme to it.

Griff – Black Hole. This is Griff’s eleventh single, according to Wikipedia, although she has yet to release a full album, although I suppose we can forgive her since she just turned 20 in January. This was the first track of the pop singer/songwriter’s to cross my radar, but the hook in this chorus – “there’s a big black hole where my heart used to be” – is a hell of an earworm.

Allie X – GLAM! That intro sounds like I’m about to play a video game … 15-20 years ago, maybe? But then the singer/model Allie X starts with a whoa-oh-oh-oh that would have fit in on pop radio in 1985. I mean, listen to this chorus. How is this song not already an enormous hit?

Noname – Rainforest. I confess Noname’s laconic delivery has never done much for me, but the syncopated beat and her somewhat faster tempo here caught my ear in a way none of her previous tracks had.

Potty Mouth – Let Go. Speaking of Velocity Girl, I feel like this Massachusetts all-girl trio is sort of VG’s spiritual heirs with their sunny power-pop tracks, although I think their lyrics slipped a grade here.

Django Django feat. Charlotte Gainsbourg – Waking Up. The third new album of 2021 that’s likely to show up on my year-end list – although I’d rank it third of those three – is the Djangos’ fourth album Glowing in the Dark, which has this surprising collaboration with erstwhile Lars von Trier muse Gainsbourg.

YONAKA – Seize the Power. This Brighton quartet, led by the charismatic singer Theresa Jarvis, plan to release their sophomore album this year, with this first single a slight departure from the style of Don’t Wait Til Tomorrow.

King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard – East West Link. This prolific Australian prog/psych rock band just released L.W., their 17th album in just eight and a half years. I assume the title refers to the vaguely “eastern” sounds – I’d say more south Asian, or even the southwestern part of Asia, but I’m no expert in music from either region – which sort of give this whole thing a Physical Graffiti vibe.

Greentea Peng – Nah It Ain’t the Same. Peng’s debut album MAN MADE is due out this summer, and I’m at least curious after this lead single, which has elements of hip-hop, soul, funk, andthe sort of Thai jazz brought to the mainstream by Khruangbin.

Freddie Gibbs – Winter in America. Gibbs is an unusual but inspired choice to cover Gil-Scott Heron and Brian Jackson’s 1975 track, which originally appeared on The First Minute of a New Day. This cover is part of a partnership between ESPN’s The Undefeated and Hollywood Records and appeared on an EP called Black History Always – Music For The Movement Vol. 2.

Iceage – Vendetta. This Danish post-post-punk band’s fifth album Seek Shelter is due out May 7th, with this tense, sludgy track the lead single.

Death from Above 1979 – One + One. Driven by a guitar riff to make Josh Homme blush, this song also has a real groove to it, like a lost track from the Mark Ronson-produced QotSA album.

Gojira – Born for One Thing. I think Gojira is the most interesting metal band going right now, as they’ve gotten more progressive and creative with each album, moving from straight death metal to more technical material to their current hybrid of thrash, prog, and even “groove” metal sounds. I never got into Pantera, but I can hear the influence of Diamond Darrell on the guitarwork here as I did on Magma.

Angelus Apatrida – Bleed the Crown. These Spanish thrash stalwarts released their self-titled seventh album late last year, showing a strong influence from both Bay Area thrash and the giants of Teutonic metal like Kreator and Destruction, although the vocals are mostly death growls and in many cases overtook the pleasure of the guitar riffs.

Memoriam – Failure to Comply. Memoriam are often tagged as straight death metal because of Karl Willetts’ (ex-Bolt Thrower) guttural vocals, but they have more in common with traditional thrash than current extreme metal. This track is directly inspired by the BLM protests that took place across most of last summer in the US, as Willetts has a friend who participated in and recorded one event, ending up in jail and receiving community service (in his telling) for protesting.

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→ March 2, 2021
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Judas and the Black Messiah.

Daniel Kaluuya’s Golden Globes win might bring some more attention to the superb Judas and the Black Messiah, available now on HBO Max, a biopic that focuses on the final months of Fred Hampton’s life by focusing equally on the man who betrayed him. It’s a different angle than a more typical biography, and I can see an argument that it gives Hampton short shrift, but the two lead performances absolutely drive this movie.

Fred Hampton (Kaluuya) was the head of the Illinois chapter of the Black Panther Party when Edgar Hoover’s FBI decided he was a threat to the nation and, with the help of the members of the Chicago Police Department who weren’t busy assaulting protesters, executed him in his bed while his pregnant girlfriend listened from the next room. The FBI was able to do this because one of Hampton’s lieutenants, William O’Neal (LaKeith Stanfield), was an FBI informant who ratted out Hampton to avoid a felony charge of car theft. O’Neal not only provided information to his FBI handler, Roy Mitchell (Jesse Plemons), but slipped a sedative into Hampton’s drink the night of the execution so he’d be unable to flee or fight back.

Judas and the Black Messiah follows O’Neal’s story from his arrest to Hampton’s murder, bookending the film with footage from Eyes on the Prize II, in which O’Neal gave his only public comment on his involvement in Hampton’s assassination. The narrative focus shifts away from O’Neal to Hampton as needed, giving more time for Hampton’s character to develop, and more time for Kaluuya to show how a magnetic speaker like Hampton could develop such a strong following in such a short period of time – he first became active in social justice movements at 18, and the FBI had him executed when he was 21. (Kaluuya and Stanfield are both much older than the men they portray.)

Stanfield is the lead actor here, at least by how the film’s producers have submitted the pair’s names for awards, but most of the film’s strongest moments belong to Kaluuya. It’s unsurprising, given his superb performances in Get Out and Widows, but he is an unbelievably compelling Hampton whenever he’s speaking to any sort of crowd, friendly or hostile. Kaluuya was positively creepy in Widows as a remorseless, vindictive killer, and here he channels that same implacable calm in any situation, such as when Hampton speaks to a group of Appalachian whites, transplants in Chicago, who rallied under the Confederate flag but also shared some progressive views with the Panthers (a meeting, and subsequent alliance, that occurred in real life).

Meanwhile, despite a strong performance by Stanfield, the script doesn’t give us enough insight into why O’Neal was willing to betray Hampton, to work with the FBI and against his own community, even when he gets clear evidence that the Panthers were creating positive change. His initial willingness to sign up as an informant, avoiding what the film says would have been six years in prison, is easy to grasp, but as the demands on him grow, and he’s more entrenched within the Panther organization, why wouldn’t he balk? Where’s the hesitation beyond what the script gives us in a phone call or two where he threatens to walk away and then changes his mind when reminded of the charges hanging over his head. Stanfield is very good at portraying anguish, speaking through clenched jaws with his head slightly bowed, but there’s something lacking in the character’s portrayal here – although even the actual interview O’Neal gave shortly before his death (the same day that Eyes on the Prize II aired) fails to provide a satisfactory explanation, as he seems unwilling to confront the consequences of his own actions. It’s at least plausible that director Shaka King and writers Keith and Kenneth Lucas made an active choice to leave O’Neal’s character vague because of the paucity of information on his motivations and feelings after the fact.

Between this film and the contemporaneous The Trial of the Chicago 7, it’s a strong year for ACAB in movies (or perhaps ACCAB, since both films involve gross misconduct by Chicago police), which speaks to much of the present mood in large portions of the country even though both events took place over 50 years ago. The idea of our own government executing a 21-year-old citizen in his sleep, where the police fired 90 shots and the Panthers in the apartment fired just one, should still shock and horrify us, and Judas and the Black Messiah doesn’t shy away from the corruption and police-state authoritarianism that allowed these events to take place – and the men behind them to walk away unscathed. It’s infuriating without feeling manipulative, unlike Sorkin’s film, because Judas’ script hews far more closely to the true story. It’s a film-world crime that The Trial of the Chicago 7 got a Best Picture – Drama nomination at the Globes, and a screenplay win, when Judas received neither, something I hope is remedied when the Oscars come out with their own slate of nominees in two weeks, with Kaluuya also deserving of a nod. Judas is an imperfect film in a few ways – I could have done without some of the inside-the-FBI stuff too – but between Kaluuya’s performance and the sheer power of the story behind it, it’s one of the year’s best.

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→ February 27, 2021
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Stick to baseball, 2/27/21.

Nothing new for subscribers to the Athletic this week now that my entire offseason prospects package has run. I held a Klawchat on Thursday.

Over at Paste, I reviewed Canvas, a new card-drafting and card-crafting game with some of the best artwork I’ve ever seen on a board game. It’s so visually appealing that you’ll want to play it more.

On this week’s episode of the Keith Law Show, I spoke with Blue Jays VP of International Scouting Andrew Tinnish about their loaded farm system and what it’s like to scout players in Latin America, including ones as young as 13. You can subscribe on Apple podcasts, Amazon, and Spotify.

For more of me, you can subscribe to my free email newsletter. Also, you can still buy The Inside Game and Smart Baseball anywhere you buy books; the paperback edition of The Inside Game will be out in April.

And now, the links…

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→ February 26, 2021
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The Nest.

Writer-director Sean Durkin’s first feature film, 2011’s Martha Marcy May Marlene, was a marvelous, gripping story with a star turn from a then-unknown Elizabeth Olsen – or, if she was known, it was for being a younger sister – that seemed to herald great things for Durkin once he had more resources available for another project. He finally returned to the screen in 2020 with The Nest, another extremely taut, well-acted, psychological thriller, returning again to themes of emotional manipulation and broken people, this time in a nuclear family where the couple are frantically trying to ignore the cracks in their marriage’s foundation.

Set in the 1980s, which is evident from the music to the clothes to the hairstyles, The Nest follows Roy (Jude Law) and Allison (Carrie Coon) as they relocate from New York City to the English countryside, where Roy believes he’ll find new business opportunities with a previous employer. They move into a giant Victorian house in Surrey that’s far too big for them and their two children, but it becomes evident that it is another symptom of Roy’s penchant for magical thinking and aspiration. The move isn’t for new opportunities, but because he’s broke, as Allison learns when construction on the stables for her horse-training business comes to an abrupt halt, and the lucrative deal he thinks he’s going to strike with his old firm turns out to be another pipe dream. The illusory world Roy has built around himself begins to crumble, while Allison tires of pretending everything is fine and becomes increasingly contemptuous of him, while her teenaged daughter, adrift and also recognizing an opportunity as teenagers do, rebels against them and the changes they’ve forced upon her.

The Nest is a movie of privilege, not about its exercise, but about its mere existence. Roy and Allison worry about things like status and appearances because they can – somehow, even with his chicanery and extravagance, they still have enough money to support themselves, and send the kids to private school, and, in Allison’s case, to keep a cash box hidden in the house because she knows full well that Roy is unreliable when it comes to money. The wounds here are self-inflicted, and we do get some brief glimpses of why as we learn a little of Roy’s and Allison’s histories, so this film is concerned with the suffering we create for ourselves rather than that the world imposes on us – more so if we are poor, or nonwhite, or just outside the circles in which these two people travel.

Coon is a treasure, as always – she was the best part of the one season of The Leftovers I watched – and she gives Allison all of the texture that this three-dimensional character requires. She becomes openly derisive of Roy, but also reckless in her own way, and runs the gauntlet of emotions and moods over the course of the film, notably in her growing unease in this house that they can’t afford and that could hold them and all their possessions many times over. She also takes a small step that emphasizes her independence, or at least her refusal to be dependent on such an unreliable man, that also has the side benefit of embarrassing her husband when it comes to light. My cousin Jude is also quite good as Roy, and certainly convincing as that sort of suave confidence man who is just plausible enough that you can see what Allison may have seen in him, but Coon is the absolute star of this movie, and it’s a shame she’s received so little attention on the awards circuit for it, with just a few nominations from local film critics’ circles.

The Nest, like Durkin’s first film, is a slow burn, and the tension lies mostly beneath the movie’s surface, although there’s more of an overt climax in this story than there was in Martha Marcy May Marlene, and also a less ambiguous conclusion. It’s a more polished work, with stronger characterization and a better story arc, although the first film’s ending played better into the idea of a sort of existential terror that this film evokes but doesn’t entirely drive home. They’re both quiet, simple films, however, in a way that might make them hard to sell to a larger audience, but that draw you in because they have the immodesty of reality, and all the pain and suffering it can bring.

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→ February 25, 2021
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Klawchat 2/25/21.

Keith Law: I know there’s got to be a break in the monotony. Klawchat.

Nate: With the lost year of development for many minor league players has there been any talk of pushing Rule 5 eligibility back a year?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard that. It would have to be collectively bargained, and it would be a disaster for minor leaguers. Let’s hope the union stands up for them, even though they’re non-members.

Max G: Hey Keith, thanks for taking the time to do this. You had mentioned (I believe in your last chat) that a factor in you ranked big-name-heavy systems, such as the Tigers, Ordeals, and WSox, where you did was because of their historically poor international programs. What does improving these club’s international scouting look like, and is there any hope for these orgs?
Keith Law: I like the autocorrect of the Orioles as “Ordeals.” I’m sure fans who’ve lived through the last few years would concur. It’s not just one solution for all teams – in Baltimore’s case, it was the previous regime’s choice to eschew that market completely, while in Detroit and Chicago, they tended to avoid the higher-bonus guys, and did not get great results when they did go for the seven-figure players.

xxx(yyy): thoughts on NBA Top Shot? chances we see an MLB version of that same kind of concept?
Keith Law: Had to look this up. I really don’t know anything about this idea. Digital assets aren’t assets. You don’t own the ebooks you think you bought. You’re just leasing them.

Mitchell: What first year players, J2 or 2020 draftees are you most excited to see in person in Sprint Training?
Keith Law: This will be a column in March.

Ben (MN): Have you tried playing any board games with others virtually? If so, any that work well? I’m getting so sick of two player games because my wife beats me all the time.
Keith Law: On gaming sites, yes. Across Zoom, only more social games. I wrote about some for Vulture back in November. https://klaw.me/2HdYUAl

Terry: I patiently waited for your NL Central Top 20 prospects lists to see where Drew Rasmussen was going to land….quickly learning after his name didn’t appear that he lost rookie eligibility (face, meet palm). Thoughts on him?
Keith Law: One-inning reliever. Horrible overuse at Oregon State ended any chance he’d be more.

bROOKS: Matt Thaiss – major leaguer? Bench likely, or every day guy?
Keith Law: Bench ceiling. Not enough bat for every day guy.

Billy: Is Cubs fans dragging of the Ricketts family warranted?
Keith Law: I mean, there are so many reasons…

Stu: Have you heard anything about Verlander’s progress? Best guess: does he pitch in the majors again? He’ll be out of a contract at the end of the season
Keith Law: Oh, he’ll pitch in the majors again. Someone will give him a chance even if he’s throwing 87.
Keith Law: I have no idea how he’s doing.

Duchess: Hey Keith, Pedro Leon seems unique in that he’s a older than many of the international prospects and has some pro experience. Understand that the long layoff introduces a huge variable, but what are the chances he sees a rapid run through the minors and ends up in Houston later in the summer?
Keith Law: He’s really interesting in that he has the tools of a top 50 or even top 25 prospect, is older than the typical J2 signing, but is younger than most of the good Cuban position player prospects who’ve come over (other than Robert, I think). We just have no idea how advanced he is as a hitter because the Serie Nacional has been so bad since the waves of defections began 8-10 years ago.

RobD: Do we really know how valuable it is for prospects to play in real minor league games vs other ways to develop their skills? I often hear about needing more time in game situations – is there really no other way to teach them those things than games? I have been wondering if something like 2-3 games a week plus alternative training ala Driveline might be a more efficient means of development. I know I am colored by my high school baseball days where we’d spend hours on a bus just to play a game where I’d get 4 ABs and a few groundballs hit to me.
Keith Law: I don’t buy that at all. The hardest things to do in baseball involve other players who are trying to do the other hardest things against you – getting hitters out, hitting real pitching.

Andy: How do ratings on the Athletic work, from the writer perspective? If I rate everything as solid, but occasional things as awesome, does that help ratings or is it like Uber, that awesome is the standard and anything below it could be an issue?
Keith Law: No one has ever mentioned those ratings to me.

barbeach: Belated congrats on your nuptials.  Wishing you many decades of happiness.  Bought Azul to play with the family based on your recommendation…has been great fun as we navigate Covid cabin fever.  So thanks.  Question: Is this the year Clint Frazier really breaks out?
Keith Law: If he’s healthy, he’ll play and be fine. I don’t think he’s a star because the same swing and miss issues that were there in high school are, as far as I know, still there.

Todd Boss: Texas frozen windmills == root cause of Texas’ power grid failures.  Right.  At what point does the disingenuity of right wing media become so ridiculous that even the brainwashed masses who watch it call BS?
Keith Law: Never. That will simply never happen. Denialism is too entrenched in American culture, the result of poor public education, income inequality, and our high degree of religiosity compared to other developed nations.

Andy: How long until you feel comfortable going to a game? How long until you feel comfortable taking your family to a game (since there won’t be a vaccine for kids until at least 2022 season?) It’s outdoors, but the yelling and close proximity, makes me hesitant.
Keith Law: I’ll go when I’m vaccinated, or I’ll go if it’s just media and scouts but no fans. I don’t see taking the kids till next year.

JT: Is using Biggio as a stop gap until Austin is ready a perfectly OK solution for the Jays? All of the rumored links to 3B seem to reveal that they get it on Biggio–he’s not a long term starter.
Keith Law: The signing of Semien was the clearest indicator to me that they see what I have always said about Biggio. He shouldn’t be playing every day for a contender.

JT: How hard is it to consider guys like Yadier Alvarez when doing your lists and organizational charts? In a normal year, we would have seen how he reacted to adversity, and it’s possible he could have broken through. Now, it’s almost like we’re forced logically to assume the worst–which tends to happen, ‘natch.
Keith Law: I say this facetiously, but … who?

John Olerud: So… how do the Ms best handle this? Indeed, as a (now more embarrassed and more reluctant than ever) fan of this sorry team, what would you say is the best approach going forward, both on a responsible/ethical and (less importantly) competitive level? To be sure, these are not mutually exclusive outcomes, and any suggestion of such is no doubt complete BS. But I’d be grateful to get your analysis of the situation and your suggestions for any ideal hires. Thanks as always for taking the time.
Keith Law: The M’s need an actual investigation into their internal culture, because, in most cases, if the President feels this way, it’s reflected throughout the organization. Any solution depends on just how widespread these sentiments are.

Todd Boss: If you were the Nats, would you stick Seth Romero as a starter in AAA or have him compete for the lefty reliever MLB bullpen slot?
Keith Law: Can’t see him being a starter with his persistent knuckleheadedness.

JT: I signed up for the Athletic for you and for Eno. Thank you for what you do.
Keith Law: Thank you. Your subscriptions allow me to do what I do.

Jake: What did you hear about Seth Corry in instructs that jumped him into your top 100? Do you think he starts in AA and at least starts the clock for giving the Giants pitching a much needed youth infusion?
Keith Law: The answer to the first question is in the player capsule for Corry. The answer to the second is yes to AA and no to the majors.

Aaron: Agree with your take on the Chicago 7 – it shows the full Sorkin experience, with the good and bad that implies (maybe he created the female FBI agent to have a bad female character).
Keith Law: In fairness, and I don’t feel any real need to be fair to Sorkin, the real story has no women in it. Creating a fictional female character to avoid that is probably a good thing. Creating THAT fictional female character was just stupid.

Phillip P.: Thanks for the chat, Keith! By every measure, Ronald Acuna has been a star. And if he maintains his level of production for a long time, he’ll be a HOFer. But what are the chances he makes the leap from being a 5- to 6-win player to being an 8-plus-WAR guy? What adjustments does he need to make to get there?
Keith Law: He’s still just 23, and B-R had him at 2.3 WAR in 46 games played last year (a rate of 8.1 WAR per 162 games) after a 5.7 WAR in 2019. Your question sort of presumes he’s not already heading towards a 7-8 WAR peak and I don’t agree with that.

JJ: What will you miss most about the Tim Tebow Era?
Keith Law: Oh, no question, the whining from people who claimed I hate Tebow for his religious beliefs, as if he was the only Christian in baseball.

Dan: Thanks as always for the chat Keith! Who in the Twins system do you think has the best chance to have a helium year and jump up the rankings?
Keith Law: Every team report has a Sleeper section at the end that answers this precise question.

Rob: I’m curious now that you’ve gone through the whole prospect exercise (and thanks for all 80,000 words, by the way), did you end up getting more usable and reliable (aka independently sourced) scouting information than expected?
Keith Law: No, I don’t think so. I’m glad this book is closed and we will get games this year, with scouting reports and data, to make the whole exercise better and more enjoyable in 2022.

Joe: Does Antoine Kelly project as a starter or more a 2 pitch reliever?
Keith Law: Starter with high variance.

Guest: With Lindor, Baez, Correa, Seager and Story all free agents at the same time, what do you think those contracts look like?  My assumption is that all of them expect $150 million+ but I have a hard time finding 5 realistic teams that will bid at that level.
Keith Law: Depends on whether there are any more free agents out there as a result of the new CBA – or if the CBA negotations are drawn out and we get some sort of labor stoppage.

Tom: I think we’re probably ok to just throw out Kris Bryants 2020 and say he’s still a .380 OBP 500 SLG guy, right?
Keith Law: I would work off that assumption if I were Hoyer.

JJ: Ten years, $240 million, and three total playoff games — do you think, if given a redo, either the Angels or Albert Pujols would do that contract again?
Keith Law: I’m sure Pujols would. I doubt the Angels would.

Jackie: Do you think Jeter Downs takes over at second base for the Red Sox some time in 2021?  I’m not too excited by the thought of Enrique Hernandez on an everyday basis.
Tim: How close to being a MLBer is Khalil Lee? What’s his most likely future? Thanks.
Keith Law: I think Downs could, yes.
Keith Law: Lee is probably not far at all from being a big leaguer, but he has a real adjustment to make before he’s a regular (and the hope is that he started to make it at the alt site).

Salty: You mentioned last chat about not investing in crypto partially because it’s an environmental disaster.  I don’t get involved with it personally due to a lack of understanding and confidence in it, but never thought of it in that light.  Can you please expound on that, unless you feel this isn’t the best format to do so?
Keith Law: I believe I linked to it in the last chat. Cryptocurrencies require tremendous computing power, and the energy used to support them already rivals some countries’ entire energy usage. And to what end? None, other than speculation.

Heather: What’s your favorite conspiracy theory that you secretly think, “Yeah, that one might actually be true”?  Roswell, the JFK assassination, the Patrick Ewing Lottery Fix, pedophile pizza parlors?
Keith Law: I mean, one of those things (Ewing) is not like the others. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to hear a pro sports league rigged something to ensure that a player went to a specific market – or, worse, to ensure that, say, Michael Jordan never fouled out of a game because it would crush TV ratings. The other three things you mentioned are all basically nuts.

Brian: I had a question there (I’m the Dylan Cease guy) and hit send too soon. My question was if you were the WSox, would you rather have Dylan Cease or Dane Dunning?
Keith Law: Cease.

Chris P: Didn’t see Derek Hill in your top 20 for the Tigers. You had been higher on him than most in the past due to his athleticism, but has he gone past the prospect level now?
Keith Law: With no evidence to say he’s going to either make more contact or hit the ball harder than he did in 2019, we have a 25-year-old whose ceiling is fourth outfielder.

Todd Boss: When Jared Kelenic is sent to AAA on April 1st for two weeks, how big will the outrage be?
Keith Law: He has more reason for a grievance than Kris Bryant did, given Mather’s comments. That said, is Kelenic actually ready for the majors? Do we know that? The Mariners might have a good answer, but with no minor league season in 2020, we’d just be guessing.

Kori: Hi Keith – if Austin Beck can (a big if) bring his hit tool to 40, does that rest of the package make him an average regular?
Keith Law: Don’t think so. 45 yes, 40 no.
Keith Law: Well … even at a 45, is the power he shows in BP also showing up in games? Or does he get to that grade 45 (thus still below average) hit tool by shortening up and trading power for contact?

Matthew: Catcher of the future in Toronto: Jansen, Kirk, or…?
Keith Law: I might bet on Moreno over Kirk, but it’s not Jansen.

Old Prospector: Do you think Francisco Mejia can be an everyday player in MLB?
Keith Law: I do. There are few guys who hit like he did in the minors and then completely fail to hit in the majors. Andy Marte comes to mind. But they’re rare.
Keith Law: And Mejia didn’t just put up empty numbers. He really hit, with some impact, and a good swing, and scouts agreed with the stat lines.

Old Prospector: Obviously it is going to be a rough year in Pittsburgh. Beyond Hayes and Keller, is there anyone on the big league roster you think could be a valuable contributor the next time the Pirates are competing for a playoff spot?
Keith Law: I could see Reynolds ending up on that roster 3-4 years from now. Anyone else of merit would be gone by then, though.

Jay: Do you think we’ll ever see two DHs? Or teams use their DH for their catcher instead of the pitcher? It feels like catcher’s are getting worse offensively as a collective for some time now.
Keith Law: No, I don’t, and I don’t agree on the latter point. I think catchers hit about as well as they did 30-40 years ago, but they catch better.

Dan: Do you think Vlad will be able to make the adjustment(s) to get the ball in the air more this year? I know it’s super early in his career, but was that ever a concern of yours/anyone’s regarding his swing? I can’t recall ever reading anything about his GB%.
Keith Law: I think he will at some point, but all the people excited about his weight loss seem to think the two are connected and they’re absolutely not.

Sandy Alderson: Is Biden reopening the child detention facility as bad as it sounds? What do we do to hold him accountable?
Keith Law: It isn’t as bad as it sounds, but that didn’t stop everyone from reacting to a headline. They had to reopen the facility to comply with COVID-19 prevention guidelines. The Washington Post and NPR both fact-checked this claim.

Dr. Bob: Isn’t the problem that Kelenic can’t file a grievance if he’s sent down because he won’t be represented by the union until he comes up?
Keith Law: Bryant wasn’t either. He still filed one (and lost).

Jay: When COL signed Arenado to his extension, I thought COL signed him for a good $/WAR/year and it was a good value. Why did they have to kick in an extra $50M to trade him for prospects with such limited ceilings and FV?
Keith Law: Poor negotiating by the Rockies? I don’t have another answer.

Prospector: Who would your project for better offensive production if they both reach close to their ceilings – CJ Abrams or Ronny Mauricio?
Keith Law: Abrams.

Jay: Give me hope that Blaze Jordan will be an all-star. Not because I like the Red Sox, but because we need more Dodgeball named guys in MLB
Keith Law: Extremely unlikely. Singles hitting first baseman. Needs a massive swing overhaul to get to his power.

Old Prospector: Any thoughts on Elijah Greene? Is he a potentially generational type 1-1 pick type guy?
Keith Law: He’s going to be a high pick in 2022 – there was some talk he’d try to reclassify into 2021 – but I am not putting that tag on him yet.

JJ: I don’t think everyone involved in the JFK assassination was arrested.  Oliver Stone made everyone who thinks that way look like a lunatic, however.  Thanks, Oliver.
Keith Law: I haven’t seen that movie, essentially for that reason: ultimately he’s trafficking in, and profiting from, conspiracy theories. I know people say the movie is great. I can’t watch it with clear eyes.

davealden53: First time since your wedding that I’ve stumbled upon one of your chats while it was still going on.  Congrats on the wedding and especially on the letter you wrote about it.  The letter was so sincere and quietly joyful that I’ve yet to delete it but instead return to reread it regularly.
Keith Law: thank you! you haven’t missed many chats – this is only my third since I got married – but I appreciate the kind words.

Andy: I know you haven’t done draft rankings yet but Leiter v Rocker, who are you leaning towards having higher? Also, is that top 2 better (in college) than UCLA’s of Cole-Bauer?
Keith Law: Draft rankings next week. I have never understood the idea that Rocker was some obvious 1-1 guy. He’s not. And I don’t think he’s going to be 1 on my ranking. This is some combination of him throwing the no-hitter two years ago and being famous and good in high school (he was), but those aren’t reasons for a player to be taken first overall.

Todd Boss: Will the ill-advised comments of now resigned Mariner’s president have a profound effect on the next CBA?  Or will his comments be spun as the words of a raving mad-man that are completely untrue?
Keith Law: I’m hopeful it encourages the players to take a harder line this time around, after they went for quality of life improvements in the last negotiations but ended up conceding too much ground on other fronts, including the luxury tax and the international free agency system.

Lacey: Hey Keith, do you have any baseball podcast series you’d recommened? I just finished The Edge about the Astros and loved it. Anything along those lines?
Keith Law: No, sorry, even in a pre-pandemic world I only listened to 3-4 podcasts, and now without time in the car I have a hard time keeping up with those.

Matt: What’s your take on Mitch Keller….didn’t allow a hit in his last eleven innings, but walked ten guys….
Keith Law: We know by now that pitchers not allowing hits is at least partly a function of luck/defense, and not exclusively a credit to the pitcher. You’re also asking about a sample so small it’s meaningless. Keller’s main problem is the lack of a third pitch to get lefties out – in 2020, he walked 11 LHB and struck out 6, and he’s had problems with LHB going back at least to AA.

Guest: What will be the highest priority for the union in the next CBA: fixing service time manipulation, making drastic changes to the luxury tax, reducing the number of controlled years from 6 to something like 4, something else?
Keith Law: It should be the luxury tax, although I would also like to see them reduce the number of years to free agency to 5.

Chris: You’re forced to answer, which team is the best run organization in baseball right now?
Keith Law: Fun fact: I am not forced to answer, so I won’t. There are many well-run organizations in baseball right now.

Len: Macro Luciano – can he become a GUY?
Keith Law: Yes.

Chris: I’m a huge Dodger fan, but I just absolutely love what the Padres have done the last couple of years (minus Hosmer). It is just so refreshing to see a team trying to win (and what a weird thing to say about professional sports).
Keith Law: It’s great for baseball, but isn’t it good business? Sure, you can take easy profits from revenue sharing, but if you want the bigger payoff, doesn’t it make sense to exploit the inefficiency of other teams essentially doing as little as possible and try to win? If the Padres end up with their first World Championship, it will also result in a large windfall for the owners.

Dee Arby: Our educational system needs a massive overhaul, what core subjects outside of science and math should we be teaching the kids?
Keith Law: Critical thinking. That’s more of a multi-disciplinary thing, but teaching students to read with a critical eye – perhaps using the SIFT method – and understand how to tell when someone is lying or misleading them, or when a conclusion isn’t supported by the evidence provided, or how unconscious biases might affect what they see and think.

Nate: Not a baseball comment — having the league fix the draft lottery so the Knicks win the rights to Patrick Ewing, then never winning a championship with Patrick Ewing, is so typical of the Knicks.  They can’t even cheat properly.
Keith Law: That joke was the best thing in all of Soul.

Guest: Just saw Royce Lewis, top prospect of Twins shows up for Spring Training and under preliminary physical is revealed to have torn ACL and out for the year.  As an athlete, how can you have that serious an injury and not know???
Keith Law: Perhaps he was hoping for a better outcome? I’m sure lots of us have had health scares, or know people who’ve had, where you knew something was wrong but hoped or prayed (if you’re so inclined) for a better diagnosis than the worst case scenario.

JR: Has tanking gone so far that it’s become a strategy for not really trying but we can tell our fans it’s our plan? I feel like Cubs/Astros started this trend, and it worked for the most part for them.  Other teams have tried but seemed to only be serious about the tanking aspect and not the “spending once we get good” aspect, yet they keep using tanking to stay bad/not spend.
Keith Law: The “we’ll spend when we get good” line is the key here. As long as fans buy it, they’ll sell that … and never spend.

Pat: Courses that should be mandatory in school- Some type of personal finance. Teach kids about credit, stocks, interest, borrowing, student loans, etc. I wonder how much lesser the student loan debt crisis would be if young people at least had a basic understanding of what they’re signing.
Keith Law: Yes. I’d rather see a full year of economics – half on personal finance, half on how the economy actually works – than a fourth year of English (or literature). I say that as an avid reader, too. The former is a lot more useful for life after high school than reading Pride and Prejudice and An American Tragedy.

Rules for Thee: Why did you feel it appropriate to have a wedding ceremony amidst the pandemic?  I know you said you were in compliance with Delaware regulations but you’ve also criticized those regulations.  So which is it?  Abiding the regulations makes approved activities safe?  Or the state’s regulations are putting people needlessly at risk?
Keith Law: That’s simply false. I did not criticize Delaware’s regulations on gatherings, which were very strict and right to be so. We adhered to those, with a tiny reception, and to mask and distancing guidelines as well. I have criticized the lax rules on bars being open, though. Go troll somewhere else.

Frank: Please fine “Rules for Thee” $5 for baiting.
Keith Law: Oh, absolutely.

Chris: I’m wondering if you have an opinion on a team having a fixation in the international market for specific countries.  The Dodgers seem to skew heavily towards Venezuela right now, for example.
Keith Law: That was true at some points in the past – Houston had a longstanding affinity for Venezuelan prospects in the 1990s – but I don’t know if that’s feasible now with a hard cap on international bonuses. That said, the failed state in VZ and danger of travel there could also mean an opportunity for teams willing to take that risk or spend more for personal security there.

Guest: Keith, what does it say about an organization that just a year or so ago would sign a young player like Arrenado (or in NFL, Wentz or Goff) to huge 9 figure contracts and then move on??
Keith Law: Aren’t those NFL deals non-guaranteed? I don’t think it’s a perfect analogy. Also, Carson Wentz held the ball for your entire question and just got sacked.

Oscar: Have you ever considered designing your own board game? It’s not like you have too many other things going on . . .
Keith Law: Yes. It’s a time-consuming task, though, and I have so much else I need or want to do.

Guest: Keith, as a follow-up to the Mather talk:  Don’t  these multi-billion dollar organizations have internal media training and updating memos of how and what to say in public??  It seems like such an easy answer to a lot of stupidity.
Keith Law: Yes. I’m not sure they think to include Presidents and CEOs in those. Isn’t there an assumption (wrong, obviously) that if you’ve risen to that point you already know how to deal with the public?

Joe: What percentage which you say AAA games happen in early April at home stadiums? How about the other levels in May?
Keith Law: I think the games will happen – figure maybe 20% are cancelled due to positive tests – without fans until at least May. MLB may just have to accept that they need to subsidize some of those teams, which is only fair since they just executed a hostile takeover of the minors anyway.

Mike Trout: Longtime reader so seeing you comment and watch football is a little jarring. What do you like about it now that you didn’t seem to like before?
Keith Law: I married an Eagles fan. Although I have to say I prefer watching rugby. As long as we beat the English, I don’t care!
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thanks so much for reading, especially with the large amount of content I dumped on you in the past month. I will have a draft ranking up next week, and remember that The Inside Game is coming out in paperback on April 6th. You can pre-order it now, and maybe I’ll get to do some signing events this summer once more of us are vaccinated too. Stay safe everyone!

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→ February 24, 2021
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The Trial of the Chicago 7.

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (now on Netflix) has a great movie at its heart, with all of the quick, witty dialogue you’d expect from an Aaron Sorkin script, but it is the most over-Sorkined thing imaginable. The actual story of the Chicago Eight (later reduced to seven, when Bobby Seale was granted a mistrial) is compelling enough that Sorkin had to do nothing more than supply the dialogue. Instead, he fabricated events and added melodrama to a story that didn’t need it.

The Chicago Seven were seven men who were involved in some way in the protests against the Vietnam War held in Chicago during the 1968 Democratic National Convention, which itself took place in the wake of the murder of Robert F. Kennedy. Those protests descended into violence when the Chicago Police Department responded with violence to the protesters’ mere existence, but the city, and then the new Republican Administration of President Nixon, chose to charge eight men with conspiracy to incite violence. The eighth, Seale, wasn’t at the protests, but was the co-founder of the Black Panther Party, and had the misfortune to be in Chicago for a few hours during the convention, so he was arrested too on a charge that was even more bogus than those faced by the other seven. The trial was a farce, over before it started, thanks in no small part to a judge who kept one foot on the scales the entire time.

Sorkin chose to tell the story of the trial, giving us the protests and the violence through flashbacks, which is a reasonable device for explaining this part of history, especially given the historical populiarty of courtroom dramas on TV and in film. With the cast he’s assembled here to play the courtroom principals, he can get away with most of the action taking place inside that room, giving them the dialogue and letting the likes of Sacha Baron Cohen (Abbie Hoffman) and Eddie Redmayne (Tom Hayden) handle the rest.

There are portions of this film that work, which makes it all the worse when Sorkin decides to tinker with the story. The actual courtroom was something of a circus; Hoffman and fellow Yippies co-counder Jerry Rubin (played by Jeremy Strong) did pull a lot of the antics you see in the film, the judge (Frank Langella, good in a one-note role) really was this crooked, and what happens to Bobby Seale in the movie did happen in the real trial. So why would Sorkin insert so much fiction into this narrative? Why would he have the pacifist David Dellinger (John Carroll Lynch) punch a bailiff in the courtroom, when no such thing happened? Why do we get this fake honeytrap storyline around Rubin, with an FBI agent who never existed? Why wouldn’t Sorkin show any of the testimony from the many celebrities, including Phil Ochs, Judy Collins, and Allen Ginsburg, who did appear at the real trial? And the ending of the film, while certainly stirring, is a complete fantasy, and it is maddening that Sorkin decided that actual history wasn’t good enough for him or for us.

Cohen may not quite have the most screen time, but he’s clearly the star of the film, and if anyone gets a nomination for this movie – and the oddsmakers have it getting a whole bushel – it should be him. The secondary framing device showing Hoffman retelling the story of the protests and trial during a standup routine doesn’t work either, but Cohen is tremendous inside the courtroom and in the flashbacks, especially when he’s on the stand – he and Rubin were the only two of the seven to testify – and we get more of Hoffman than just the wisecracks. It’s not really an Oscar-worthy performance because the role itself is too slight, but Cohen runs it right up to its ceiling. Rylance also stands out for his performance here, also in a limited role, and this might be the movie that truly deserves the Best Ensemble Cast award rather than any individual honors.

How this got a nomination for the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Drama over Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom or The Nest, to name just two superior films, is beyond me. It’s entertaining, beyond a doubt; the movie never drags, and Sorkin can write some great dialogue, but this script is too bombastic, too overwritten, and, weird as it is to say, too slanted in favor of the defendants to call it a great work of art. I’m not even arguing for the side of the prosecution and certainly not the cops, not one of whom was convicted of any crime in connection with the riot they started, but Sorkin is trying so hard to canonize these seven men that he often turns them into cartoon characters. They can be heroes without Sorkin’s help, and the film is worse for his efforts.

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→ February 22, 2021
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Nomadland.

Nomadland has been the front-runner for Best Picture for several months now, taking home the Golden Lion at Venice, winning Best Film or Best Picture from multiple cities’ film critics associations (Boston, Chicago, Toronto, San Francisco, Houston, DC, Dallas, Seattle, and London), and landing four nominations at the upcoming Golden Globes. It’s a very different sort of film than anything I’ve seen, layering a traditional, fictional narrative on top of a work of cinema verité, based on an acclaimed non-fiction book but with Frances McDormand delivering what might be her third Oscar-winning performance. The movie is now streaming exclusively on Hulu.

Nomadland is about vandwellers, people who have chosen, or been forced to choose, to live itinerant lives in their vans or RVs, traveling around the country and taking on seasonal or other short-term work, but avoiding the fixed lifestyle and long-term obligations of home ownership. The book, by Jessica Bruder, was non-fiction, and explored this subculture of outcasts, misfits, and nonconformists, and the movie brings in many of the same people who appeared in Bruder’s book as the backdrop for the fictional story of Fern (McDormand), who is forced into this life when her job and the company town where she lived all go away in the span of a few months in 2011. (She’s not a real character, but the town, Empire, Nevada, became a ghost town, and the factory shown in the movie is still shuttered, although the gypsum mine has since re-opened and there are about two dozen people living in Empire.)

Fran is widowed and has nothing to tether her to Empire, including, it would appear, no real ties to friends nearby, so she buys a van, refits it for nomad life, and hits the road, starting out by working at an Amazon warehouse for her first seasonal job, then connecting with a group of nomads who teach her a little about the lifestyle and offer some tips. Many of these wanderers are real vandwellers from the book – Swankie, Linda, and the evangelist of the vandwelling lifestyle, Bob Wells, whose history of failing to pay child support is not mentioned in the story. One who isn’t is David, played by David Strathairn, whose voice would give him away even if you didn’t recognize him through his unkempt hair and white beard. He’s smitten with Fern, and the two run into each other multiple times, with David trying to convince Fern to come along with him and, eventually, to join him when he decides to give up van life and settle down with his son’s family.

Director Chloe Zhao’s previous feature, The Rider, also used non-actors in most of its roles, with its protagonist playing himself, so she’s mining some familiar ground here, but it is hard to imagine this movie without McDormand in it. She is utterly essential to this film, not her story specifically but the way she inhabits this niche in our world and makes it entirely plausible that she is, in fact, Fern, a woman abandoned by fortune who is trying to avoid going over the cliff. Her portrayal of an anguished, grieving person looks so effortless and so delicate that it reminds me of when extremely athletic players (often players of color) are accused of showing too little effort when the truth is that they’re just that talented.

Zhao also films this in a way that empathizes with the vandwellers without patronizing or mocking them. This could easily be misery porn, or a screed about our broken economic system (especially around health care), or a sort of weird cautionary tale about how people end up living out of their cars. Instead, Zhao presents this world without judgment, giving us the people in it as they are, so that their humanity is at the heart of the film, not their choices, and not their misfortune.

Nomadland is also frequently gorgeous as Zhao gives us soaring landscapes across the American West and some close shots of forests or other natural vistas, including the view from what I presume was supposed to be Fern’s old house, now abandoned but still intact. The film doesn’t romanticize the vandwelling life, but there’s a certain romance in the idea of getting in a van or an RV and just driving across these great unpopulated swaths of land, without so much as a destination in mind, although I find it hard to fathom doing that alone – and that’s without the added concerns that a woman would have making the same sort of journeys by herself.

Right now, Nomadland is my #1 movie from 2020, and my wife’s as well. I’ll go out on the shortest of limbs to say it’s going to take at least four nominations at the Oscars – Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, and Best Cinematography – and I can at least see why it’s the favorite to win the first one, because it’s a great movie and, in a roundabout way, speaks to the economic uncertainty of modern American life. It also gives Zhao an excellent chance to become the second woman and the first woman of color to win Best Director (Kathryn Bigelow won in 2010 for The Hurt Locker). We should see two women nominated in that category in the same year, with at least one of Regina King (One Night in Miami) and Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) joining Zhao, which would be a first, although knowing the Academy’s history I wouldn’t be shocked to see them screw this up too and give one nod to, say, Aaron Sorkin instead.

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→ February 20, 2021
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Stick to baseball, 2/20/21.

For subscribers to the Athletic, all of my prospect ranking content is now on the site, from the top 100 to the org rankings to every team’s top 20 & org report:

ArizonaHoustonOakland
AtlantaKansas CityPittsburgh
BaltimoreLA AngelsSt. Louis
BostonLA DodgersSan Diego
Chicago CubsMiamiSan Francisco
Chicago White SoxMilwaukeeSeattle
CincinnatiMinnesotaTampa Bay
ClevelandNY MetsTexas
ColoradoNY YankeesToronto
DetroitPhiladelphiaWashington

Podcasts: I was remiss in omitting these from my newsletter this week, but I appeared on several podcasts to talk prospects and rankings, including the Sox Machine podcast, the East Village Times podcast, and the Eutaw Street Report (Apple/Spotify). I’ve also recorded a spot on The Update with Adam Copeland, our Bay Area sports podcast at the Athletic, that should be available next week.

On my own podcast this week, I did a mailbag episode and ripped through as many of your questions as I could in about 35 minutes. You can subscribe on Apple podcasts, Amazon, and Spotify.

I finally sent out a new edition of my free email newsletter, talking a little bit about the anxiety and joy of releasing all of this content into the world. Also, you can still buy The Inside Gameand Smart Baseball anywhere you buy books; the paperback edition of The Inside Game will be out in April.

And now, the links…

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→ February 19, 2021
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Calico.

Calico is a deceptively cute game, ostensibly a simple game about cats and quilts but in fact a much deeper strategic experience that asks you to plan every tile and think about every move. It would have made my top 10 last year had I seen and played the game in time to write it. It’s between printings right now, but its amazon page is still active.

Calico is a tile-laying game where each player gets a board that has a frame around it showing pieces of hexagonal quilt tiles, and three scoring hex tiles placed on the three designated spots on their boards, each showing a specific scoring method associated with it, such as AA-BB-CC (three pairs) or AAA-BB-C (a triple, a pair, and a singleton). Over the course of the game, players will draw tiles from the supply and place them on their boards to try to surround those scoring hexes with six quilt tiles of different colors and patterns to meet those scoring tiles’ requirements. The tiles come in six colors and six patterns. If you meet the scoring tiles’ rules in just color or pattern, you score the lower number, but if you meet it in color and pattern, you score more.

There are also cats in this game, three each time you play, who are looking around to lay on your quilt, but only if it matches the patterns they like in specific alignments of tiles. That can mean something as simple as three tiles in a row, or something more complicated like five tiles in two rows (a row of two and a row of three, forming a sort of trapezoid), or a chain of seven contiguous tiles in any shape. Cats only score based on tile patterns, not colors – the latter are immaterial – and in each game, you’ll get one easy cat to score, one moderate one, and one difficult one, with multiple options for each at the start of every game; they score 3, 5, and 7 points respectively. You can count the partial tiles in the frame towards these patterns.

And there are buttons, which you can get by placing three tiles of the same color together, either in a row or in a triangle, and once again you can count the frame’s partial tiles to create those trios. You can’t create a group of six for two buttons, however; each group of three has to be separate. There are six colors of buttons, and if you collect one of all six colors, you get a bonus rainbow button. They’re all worth 3 points apiece.

You start the game with two random tiles from the supply, and on each turn, you’ll place one of them on your board, then replace with one of the three tiles in the supply. The game proceeds until all players have filled their boards, at which point they score their points from the scoring hex tiles, their cats, and their buttons.

That’s as detailed a description of Calico’s rules as I can give, and it’s not even 500 words. It’s an extremely elegant game that you can learn in a few minutes, but the game changes each time you play depending on the hex tiles, the cats, and the random draws of quilt tiles from the bag to supply the market. The first two options can be random, but you can also use them to fine-tune the game to the difficulty level you want; the rulebook suggests a starter game with specific tiles and cats for first-time players, which I think is also useful for learning the game’s icons and symbols.

The one drawback to game play is that you’re limited to the tiles that appear on the table, and, with only three tiles of each specific color/pattern combination and 108 tiles in total, you can easily find yourself waiting for a tile that never comes. You have to play in a way that allows you to capitalize if you get the tiles you want but prepares you for the more likely outcome that you get some of what you need, and even so, you can still lose just because the right tile never appeared. That randomness can also help level out the playing field between older and younger players, or more experienced players and newer ones, and in this case I’d say the randomness is in service of the game’s larger goals rather than just being there for its own sake.

The art in Calico is cute, maybe a little over the top in that regard, but artist Beth Sobel is one of the best in the business, with Wingspan, Lanterns, and the new edition of Arboretum all to her credit. Those cats on the scoring tiles are, in fact, actual cats, and they get their own bio section in the back of the rulebook, if you care about such things. Ultimately I’m swayed by the combination of easy-to-learn rules, subtle strategy, and replayability, though, all of which make Calico (belatedly) one of the best new games of 2020.

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