keith — Page 30

→ October 22, 2022
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 10/22/22.

My second and much longer notebook on guys I saw in the Arizona Fall League went up this week for subscribers to the Athletic. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

My guest on The Keith Law Show this week was Craig Calcaterra, writer of the excellent Cup of Coffee newsletter and author of the book Rethinking Fandom: How to Beat the Sports-Industrial Complex at Its Own Game. You can listen and subscribe via iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.

You can sign up for my free email newsletter and maybe I’ll send another edition out this week. Also, you can buy either of my books, Smart Baseball or The Inside Game, via bookshop.org at those links, or at your friendly local independent bookstore. I hear they make great holiday gifts.

My friend and former colleague at ESPN Sarah Langs announced a few weeks ago on Twitter that she has ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease. Mandy Bell of MLB.com set up a GoFundMe for Sarah, if you’d like to join me in contributing.

And now, the links…

Climate change could cause the collapse of Antarctica’s ice shelves even sooner than forecasted, in case you were feeling too good about anything this week.
Two stories of women who nearly died because anti-abortion laws denied them access to medical care, one in Texas who suffered a miscarriage and had to wait so long she developed sepsis before doctors would intervene, and one in Missouri whose own state Senator referred her to an anti-abortion clinic. The latter woman had to go to Illinois to get medical care to save her life.
Parker Molloy wrote about how the English press, buoyed by transphobic parents, bullied a schoolteacher who came out as trans into suicide. One of the main writers who attacked Lucy Meadows was Richard Littlejohn, who is still alive and writing twice a week for the Daily Mail, which ignored calls to fire him for his role.
WIRED has an excerpt from Rebecca Gilbin and Cory Doctorow’s new book Chokepoint Capitalism on how streaming services control what we hear and what music gets made, abrogating the promise that the technology would democratize music.
A Supreme Court case around copyright law, fair use, and an Andy Warhol piece may permanently alter the landscape of American art.
Florida’s state Surgeon General issued new guidance around COVID vaccines based on research that produced howls of derisive laughter from actual experts. Here’s one takedown of its many, many flaws. Charles Pierce put it well when he wrote that Florida will just keep “asking questions” until it gets the answer it wants ($).
Dr. Mehmet Oz, currently running for Senate, met a gun-violence victim at a campaign stop, but failed to disclose that she works for him and has received over $2100 from the campaign. The Associated Press reported on the encounter without noting the conflict. Do your fucking jobs, AP.
While on TV, Dr. Oz also promoted Joseph Mercola, long one of the biggest purveyors of anti-vaccine and other forms of medical misinformation online. Mercola has been selling supplements by denigrating evidence-based treatments since at least the 1990s, when I first came across his site’s claims that aspartame caused multiple sclerosis and all sorts of other health problems that it doesn’t cause at all.
Oz’s opponent, John Fetterman, accused the super PAC Democratic Coalition, run by Scott Dworkin, of misleading donors into thinking their money is going to support candidates like him.
Will Leitch wrote about the abysmal media response to Tua Tagovalioa’s second head injury in five days.
Slate’s Evan Urquhart defended Jon Stewart’s interview with and humiliation of Arkansas’s bigoted Attorney General, where he makes it clear she’s either ignorant of the facts on the issue of gender affirming care or just denying them.
How did social media content moderation become such an issue in the culture war?
This is sort of old news by now, but if you haven’t heard the racist comments by members of the Los Angeles City Council, you should check it out. Only one of the three people making those comments, Nury Martinez, has resigned, as calls mount for the other two to do the same.
Wildfire smoke doesn’t just pollute the air, but it can carry bacteria and fungal spores across long distances, thus potentially expanding the area where Valley fever and other diseases of rural/desert areas into more population regions.
Research published in Polymers showed microplastics in human breast milk.
Many artists are pushing for more student debt relief, as the $10,000 offered is a “drop in the bucket” compared to their debt loads.
An Oklahoma teacher encouraged students to call a special-needs student in the class the f-slur. The school district dragged its feet, so the state is investigating while many parents are calling for the teacher’s removal. This is the lowest bar, really.
Is hip-hop’s dominance in American popular music finally slipping? Billboard spoke to industry executives who believe it is, and I would point to the lack of innovation in the space as a reason – and streaming may be the cause, as seen above.
A terrorist group calling itself a branch of ISIS is attacking villages in northern Mozambique, killing men and raping women, while threatening one of the most important natural gas supply lines in Africa.
Amidst news of ethnic cleansing in the Tigray region of Ethiopia, the Economist called for sanctions against Eritrean dictator Issaias Afwerki ($), calling him “equally malign” as Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un.
Randy Kaufman, running for the Maricopa County Community College District Governing Board and who said he wanted to “protect our children from the progressive left,” suspended his campaign after he was arrested for masturbating in his car near a preschool. Always be wary of those who doth protest too much.
Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R) refused to say whether she would accept the election results if she loses.
Republicans in Congress have introduced a “Don’t Say Gay” bill that would prohibit schools, libraries, and other institutions that receive federal money from teaching children about, well, anything related to sex, gender, gender identity, and so on, and would allow parents to sue if they did. The Human Rights Campaign has denounced it. The end result of bills and laws like this is more youth suicides, and if that’s your goal, we’re not going to agree.
George M. Johnson wrote about his experiences seeing his book, All Boys Aren’t Blue, a memoir of growing up Black and queer in America, become the second-most banned book in the country.
Michigan Republicans introduced an anti-trans bill that would jail parents for life if they sought gender-affirming care for their kids. This is the totalitarian playbook: demonize a small, vulnerable minority to rally your adherents and get them to the polls.
Florida Times-Union columnist called Gov. Ron DeSantis’ closed-door selection of Sen. Ben Sasse, both Republicans, as the new President of the University of Florida, the “crowning achievement of the DeSantis-led effort to defile” the college, questioning Sasse’s qualifications and his intentions.
A Texas sheriff certified that the nearly 50 migrants DeSantis trafficked to Massachusetts are “crime victims,” creating the possibility they could receive special visas to stay in the U.S. Unintended consequences FTW!
In the wake of Hurricane Ian, DeSantis relaxed voting restrictions in three heavily Republican counties, but not in heavily Democratic Orange County.
Police body camera footage shows officers arresting people for so-called voter fraud, as DeSantis proudly announced a sweep and emphasized the criminal records of the arrestees, who were overwhelmingly Black.
Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel columnist James Causey called Sen. Ron Johnson’s comment that his opponent this year, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D), has “turned on America” and “finds America awful” a “cheap shot,” saying that you can love America and still criticize it. Johnson’s campaign has also run ads that darkened Barnes’s skin tone and claimed he’ll be soft on crime.
South Carolina’s medical licensing board has yet to discipline any physicians for spreading misinformation on COVID-19 or the vaccines that help prevent it, apparently for fear of backlash from the conservatives who run the state government.
Marin County in northern California was once a haven for highly educated anti-vaxxer parents. COVID-19 vaccines changed that, and the county now has one of the highest uptake rates in the country at 91%.
Jazz Chisholm was impressive in his brief stint on MLB Network’s studio coverage of the first round of the playoffs.
A new property, the Hotel Lyra, is trying to revive a nearly-abandoned town in Croatia called Licko Petrovo Selo. The town, which is near the country’s scenic Plitvice Lakes National Park, was destroyed during World War II, rebuilt by the Yugoslav government, and then heavily damaged during the Balkan wars, with most of the population, especially its Serbs, driven out.
The white nationalist teenager who opened fire outside an LGBTQ+ bar in Slovakia had posted anti-Semitic, anti-LGBTQ+, and white replacement views on Twitter and 4chan. The Anti-Defamation League says in response that Twitter and similar sites don’t do enough to moderate hate speech.
Board game news: Rock Manor Games, run by my friend Mike Gnade, has a Kickstarter up for its new role-playing game The Few and the Cursed.
BoardGameTables, who make tables for board games (!) and have also published titles like On Tour and Sequoia, have a Kickstarter up for three small-box games, including Pollen, a re-theming of Reiner Knizia’s Samurai: The Card Game.
Rising Waters, the historical co-op game about the 1927 Mississippi Flood and the racial disparities it exposed, just funded in the last few days, with about a week and a half to go in its Kickstarter.
Race to the Raft, a cooperative game from Isle of Cats designer Frank West, is already about 8x funded on Kickstarter.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: abortion, africa, arizona, arkansas, art, baseball, board game news, california, climate change, croatia, florida, football, frauds, hip-hop, lgbt rights, links, los angeles, missouri, Music, oklahoma, pennsylvania, social media, south carolina, stick to baseball, texas, vaccines, wisconsin

→ October 21, 2022
→ By keith

Arizona eats, Fall 2022.

The best new place I ate on the trip was the first: CRUjiente Tacos, an upscale taqueria just east of the Biltmore and north of Arcadia, featuring tacos with non-traditional fillings. I went with three – their Korean fried chicken taco, a fish taco, and a garlic mushroom taco. To my surprise, the last one was the best, by a lot: garlic-roasted mushrooms with chèvre and a jalapeño lime aioli, served on a fresh blue corn tortilla. I could have had three of those and considered it a good meal, although I would have regretted not trying others. The fish taco was solid, although the fish itself (halibut?) was a little underseasoned. The ancho tartar sauce and citrus slaw provided just about all of the flavor. The fried chicken taco was disappointing, as the dominant flavor was fish sauce, and it didn’t have the powerful spice/umami balance of real Korean fried chicken. I was ravenous that day, so I started with the chips and three salsas. The habanero salsa was barely spicy at all, but the avocado-tomatillo salsa was excellent.

Phoenix Coqui is a food truck turned brick-and-mortar site, serving homestyle Puerto Rican food from a central Phoenix location. They offer the usual array of stewed meats in mofongo, mashed plantains that can form an edible bowl in which the meat is served … but I’ve had mofongo multiple times in Puerto Rico, and I have realized it’s just too heavy for me. So I went for two of Coqui’s empanadas instead, one chicken and one mushrooms. The crust is the real standout, crispy but not greasy and shockingly thin. The chicken was a little dry, probably because it was shredded white meat that ended up cooking twice; the mushrooms were better but probably could have used some acidity. I also ordered the bori fries, served with a garlic-mayo sauce (which I think also includes ketchup, a popular dipping sauce in Puerto Rico) that I ended up using with the empanadas. The fries were fresh from the freezer, unfortunately.

Sushi Sen popped up on an Eater list of the best sushi places in Phoenix, which, yes, I understand that’s like being the tallest man in Lilliput, but there are a few very highly-regarded sushi places in the Valley, like ShinBay, which is omakase only.Sushi Sen is a la carte and offers a ton of over-the-top rolls, which I admit should have been a sign for me. The sushi here is just fine, but not something I’d go out of my way to eat, and it’s definitely better value than quality. I think it’s better than “average” sushi, but I also think average sushi isn’t worth eating (or depleting the oceans), so take that for what it’s worth. The non-sushi items were a mixed bag – the cucumber salad with octopus was solid, the calamari tempura was rubbery – while the various nigiri I had were all about the same except for the maguro (tuna), which had a flavor I couldn’t identify but that I definitely did not like. The portions on the nigiri are enormous, which is a mixed bag, I suppose. If you try it, I would suggest the striped bass, which comes in a ponzu sauce; the chunky spicy tuna, which isn’t just the scrapings off the skin of a tuna loin but much larger pieces (and I didn’t detect that same off flavor, so maybe the sauce muted it); and the yellowtail.

I took one for the team and tried Café Lalibela, a modest Ethiopian café and shop in Tempe that has shown up on multiple best-of-the-Valley lists. Ethiopian food isn’t always my friend, and after eating it I feel like I am sweating berbere out of my pores, but I love the food – it just doesn’t love me back. It’s also a tough cuisine if you don’t eat (most) red meat, so I went with the one chicken option, doro wat, along with their spicy collard greens (gomen), along with injera, the teff-flour pancake that you use to eat the food, tearing off pieces and wrapping bits of the food in it. I’ve got limited experience with Ethiopian food, as you might imagine; the last time I had it I was scouting Josh Bell as a high schooler, and he just homered in the World Series, so it’s been a while. I thought the doro wat was fantastic, a little spicy but nothing I couldn’t handle, with a deep, earthy flavor from the berbere’s coriander and caraway. I found the collards to be too bitter, though, in part because they had so little salt.

Tampopo Ramen is a tiny ramen bar in Tempe, not far at all from the Cubs’ ballpark, and after CRUjiente it was the best new place I tried. Their tonkotsu ramen is mellower than most I’ve tried, in a positive way – same flavor profile, but less overwhelming. I might have done with more salt, but if you haven’t noticed, that’s a thing of mine. Anyway, the noodles are the real standout, as they’re made fresh in-house every day. I added wakame and kikurage (mushrooms) to the main tonkotsu ramen, but when I go again, I’d like to try the miso ramen to see if it gives me more of that salty kick.

I tried to sneak into Pizzeria Bianco for lunch on my last day there, but Chris Bianco’s appearance on Chef’s Table: Pizza has generated new interest in his flagship restaurant, so I ended up at Blanco, a mostly-in-Arizona chain of Mexican restaurants. I wouldn’t go out of my way to eat here, but the grilled mahi-mahi tacos were completely adequate, and I was surprised by the quality of the fish. As chain food goes, you can and will do worse.

As for places I went that I’d been before: Hillside Spot, Crêpe Bar, Matt’s Big Breakfast, Noble Eatery, Soi4, Cartel Coffee, Press Coffee, Frost Gelato. Sometimes, it’s good to just play the hits, and they didn’t disappoint. I was disappointed I couldn’t slip over to FnB, my favorite restaurant in the Valley, but I would have been pushing it on time.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: arizona, ethiopian cuisine, japanese cuisine, phoenix, puerto rican cuisine, ramen, restaurants, scottsdale, sushi, tacos, tempe

→ October 20, 2022
→ By keith

Klawchat 10/20/22.

Starting at 1 pm ET. I have two posts up (one and two) covering about three dozen players I saw in the Arizona Fall League, both for subscribers to The Athletic.

Keith Law: You’re calling all the shots. Klawchat.

James: Dave Roberts did nothing to warrant losing his job, right ?
Keith Law: Right. Really don’t understand the hand-wringing over the Dodgers losing a short series to a very good team.
Keith Law: This is the playoffs. We have upsets. It’s not about crowning the best team, but about crowning a champion. You have to accept that distinction or stop watching.

Jimmy: Team farthest away from being a playoff team?
Keith Law: The Rockies, for me.

Jimmy: Julio Wander or Witt next 10 years?
Keith Law: A healthy Wander. But I would bet all 3 make many All-Star teams.

Heather: What will you miss the most about the Liz Truss Era?
Keith Law: The lettuce.

Turner: Do you plan to read Cormac McCarthy’s new novels when they come out this fall?
Keith Law: I wasn’t aware he had any new novels coming, if that says anything.

Turner: The Orioles have a lot of hitters and few pitchers in their system. Is turning some of those hitters into an established frontlineish type starting pitcher something that can actually be pulled off or does it just sound reasonable in theory.
Keith Law: I think they have to do this, and it’s feasible. They have surplus at a couple of spots, including shortstop and the outfield. They’re not going to be able to get at bats for all of them if these guys all continue on their current trajectories, so converting a package of 3-4 of their hitting prospects into an above-average starting pitcher would be ideal.

RD: Kirby or Gilbert long term?
Keith Law: Kirby, given equal health.

Ken from Entertainment 720: Question on BABIP. How do I know when it is skill or luck. If a player is hitting .325 and has a certain BABIP how do I know if that .325 is based on skill versus luck on an elevated BABIP. If his BABIP is sitting at .425 okay I get it it is luck (or the next Ted Williams) but if his BABIP is say .340 what factors do I use to determine luck versus skill here.
Keith Law: For starters, it depends on the hitter’s history of BABIPs – if he’s got a .340 BABIP this year, is that higher than his career norm? Much higher? OK, is he hitting the ball consistently harder? Or have some groundballs become line drives? Has his swing changed? Andres Gimenez went from under .300 in his first two stints in the majors to .353 this year. He changed his swing and started making much harder contact. That increase is some skill and some randomness. In his case I think it’s more of the former, based on what we see and what the data say.

barbeach: Hello KLaw! Thanks for the chat. What are your thoughts on what you’ve seen in the MLB so far from the Yankees’ Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera (SSS alert, I know!)? Thanks much.
Keith Law: Peraza barely played. Cabrera showed similar skills to what we saw in the minors; he’s a low-OBP guy with power. Probably not a regular for the Yankees.

xxx(yyy): big picture – was Kumar Rocker the right or wrong choice for the Rangers at #3? not asking if they should have taken another specific player, just if you think the process they went through to end up with Rocker was sound in your opinion
Keith Law: It truly depends on what’s going on with his arm, and I just don’t know the answer to that. If his arm turns out to be fine, it’ll be a solid pick. If not, meaning Texas evaluated the issue incorrectly or ignored/undervalued it in choosing him, then that was the wrong choice with Collier, Termarr, Green, etc. all still on the board.

addoeh: Being compared to Daniel Vogelbach only sounds bad if you think you have Anthony Rizzo 2.0.
Keith Law: Agreed. It was also very strange to get that kind of reaction about a prospect in a system that’s loaded with guys who are top 100 prospects or banging on the door – PCA, Triantos, Alcantara, Made, etc. It’s not like it’s Mervis or nothing over there.

Alex: With some luck, I can see the Pirates’ position players forming the core of a contender but it seems like their best young pitchers have #2/#3 ceilings. Do you think the Pirates can build a playoff-worthy rotation out of their system if their window opens in the next few years?
Keith Law: That’s probably right on the upper minors pitching. We’ll see how guys like Chandler and Solometo come along in the next year or two. This was their first full pro season, and both looked very good in limited time.

AM: I wasn’t a big fan of the Bucs picking Nick Gonzales and I worry that Termarr Johnson is similar- no clear defensive home and some questions about the projectability of the offensive tools given they’re a bit undersized. Am I overreacting?
Keith Law: Very different players. Gonzales was a college guy, so less risk for that reason and less upside. He also played at altitude, 4000 feet above sea level, which really skewed his performance and data. Termarr was a high school draft, so more risk there, but a better athlete with a better present hit tool on draft day. I’d be very surprised if Termarr didn’t become a better defensive 2b than Gonzales is.

Jibraun: Do you have an ETA on when Masyn Blaze Winn could be called up to the majors? Is mid-2023 too optimistic?
Keith Law: I think that’s too optimistic. You asked about Herrera taking over as catcher – I would like to think that’s their plan, and then Walker comes up later, and then Winn after that or even in 2024. He’s very talented but nowhere near as far along in his development as Walker.

Yankees Homer: Hey Klaw, what do the Yankees do about the left of their infield next year? IKF and the Racist are clearly not the answer. Is Volpe ready next year? How about 3B? Thanks!
Keith Law: I’m a Volpe guy. I’d try to get him 120 games or more in the majors next year. Even if he struggles at the start I believe he has the aptitude and athleticism to make adjustments.

Scott: It came up in your last chat that you haven’t seen Miguel Bleis yet. I had noticed he wasn’t mentioned in your preseason prospect summary on the Red Sox. Is that because he’s so far away? The consensus seemed to be that he was the best FCL prospect this year. I’m curious if you’ve heard enough from your sources that he might be in consideration in your next top 100.
Keith Law: He was only in the DSL in 2021 and didn’t stand out in performance or to scouts I know who saw that league. Different now that he’s played in the US against better competition and in front of more people.

Sage: You spent any time with Steve Stone?
Keith Law: Not really. Met him once over a decade ago. He was very friendly.

Jeff: I wonder if the Dodgers “failures” in the postseason are more due to approach and strategy towards a short series more so than anything else. They seem to have a bullpen game in virtually every series including the most recent game 3 which was after not playing in round 1 and a day off between games 2 and 3. I know the postseason is a small sample size so its not entirely indicative of who is the best team but when you have so much talent and you lose more than you win, something has to be the cause other than the randomness of the outcome of a baseball game/series.
Keith Law: How could we truly distinguish that from the randomness of a short series? I don’t know if we could. I also kept thinking the series might have been different with a healthy Buehler, although that’s all hypothetical (and then don’t you have to ask the same about Padres/Tatis?).

Alex: The Giants have been fairly clear they expect Kyle Harrison to be part of their rotation next year. Maybe not at the start of the season but sometime during the season. Is this a realistic expectation and what do you see as his ceiling/floor? Thanks for all the great content and taking my question.
Keith Law: During the season seems very realistic to me.
Keith Law: Ceiling/floor is the kind of thing I will discuss at length in offseason prospect rankings. He’ll be on the top 100 again, and was on the midseason rankings.

Dave: So if gender identity is not metaphysical, but rather a matter of observable biological reality with (as you say) “clear scientific evidence” then shouldn’t we be able to test for it? That would allow us to prevent “false positives” and separate the truly trans from the future detransitioners, who are an ever-growing group of mostly-young people and whose stories are genuinely heartbreaking.
Keith Law: Autism is a matter of observable biological reality with clear scientific evidence, and we can’t test for it in the sense you mean. The last clause of your question is anti-trans propaganda.

Aaron C.: Did you hit up any new restaurants in the valley during the AFL or did you opt to play the “greatest hits” instead?
Keith Law: I have either four or five new ones to write up.

JT: Have we seen a statistically reliable post season series yet this year?
Keith Law: Is that a thing? Is it even desirable?

Greg: Hey Keith, do you see Justyn-Henry Malloy as a future every day left fielder or is he not at that level?
Keith Law: Yes.

Philip: Jackson merrill top 30 prospect now?
Keith Law: My gut is no, but I also haven’t sat down to start that exercise of ranking the top guys yet.
Keith Law: Top 100, sure, that’s an easy call. Top 30 is a very different question.

James: predictions for both series ??
Keith Law: I said Padres and Astros for the site.

Mo: Is it a fair criticism of the Cardinals that they seem to do very well in developing mid-level talent from out of nowhere, but have struggled to develop stars the last decade?
Keith Law: Is it? Flaherty would qualify as a star for me. I guess you’re not giving them Gallen, which is fair given where he became an actual star. Who have they had prior to Carlson/Gorman and the next wave who should have become a star, though? They had the 2017 draft where they had no picks till the third round. Prior to 2015 they had a lot of reach picks and have always drafted late in the first round anyway. I see a lot of value produced in the system overall but not many “he should have been a star but isn’t” guys.
Keith Law: If Carlson and Gorman flop, then the question is different.

Aaron C.: 30 years ago, guys like Todd Van Poppel and Brien Taylor were considered top prospects despite the lack of secondary pitches and an astronomical walk rate, respectively. Was there a singular turning point (a failed prospect, a draft year, an organization?) that opened the door to your predecessors/peers getting smarter?
Keith Law: The advent of the data era. We went from teams ignoring even basic performance data in the 1990s and prior to now teams hunting for tiny advantages in more granular data, finding a lot of hidden value but sometimes missing the forest for the trees.
Keith Law: I’ll take this mode of thinking over the old way, though.

Mo: What kind of slash line do you see from Masyn Winn when he gets to the majors? Will the bat a weapon or will he be a glove-first guy?
Keith Law: The glove will be valuable before the bat is.

Dave: As the only Cubs fan not currently furious with you, what did you see from Owen Cassie at AFL? I promise not to throw a tantrum if the answer isn’t to my liking.
Keith Law: I wish I’d seen more, actually. I liked him in the spring, but didn’t get many swings from him in the AFL.

Adam: Do you see Hunter Brown as a starter (top or bottom of rotation) or bullpen arm long term. Been very impressed so far.
Keith Law: Reliever, due to command.

Zac: Is Kerry Carpenter anything more than a 4th outfielder?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

nelson: every postseason i’m struck by how seemingly fragile a starting rotation is. in your opinion do teams generally do a good job with pitching strategy in the postseason? it’s often so different than what you would see in the regular season. is there anything that could better prepare them for success?
Keith Law: I don’t have a good answer to that.

Michael: Thoughts on the potential of Kodai Sanga?
Keith Law: He’ll probably get paid to be a starter, but I know a lot of folks question whether he can be a starter over here. He’ll be on my free agent rankings when they run next month, but isn’t in the top tier of guys.

Mason: So when do we cancel the playoffs and annoiunt the LAD rightful champs?
Keith Law: That was such a bizarre column – the first one, at least – and then someone tried to pit me against that writer on twitter, which I am not interested in doing at all.
Keith Law: And then other people piggybacked on this stupid idea. I think the Dodgers were the best team in baseball in 2022. The best team doesn’t always win – not in the playoffs, not in a series, not in any particular game.

James: Do padres have a legit shot to win it all ??
Keith Law: Don’t all four teams still in the playoffs have a legit shot? Once you’re in, you have a shot.

Jason: I got my (senior) parents Everdell last year and they play it daily, often four times or more in a day. Any suggestions that could follow the style of game but with a new/different play style? They love the fact that there’s so many ways to play.
Keith Law: That’s great to hear. Wingspan has a good bit of that too – you can win lots of ways, and often your best strategy is based on your starting cards, requiring you to play differently each time – and I think Lost Ruins of Arnak has some too, although that game is about twice as long as Everdell (2-player Everdell can be 35-40 minutes).
Keith Law: Raiders of the North Sea might fit too.

Aaron: First you criticize the Cubs for getting overly cute in the draft and taking a pitcher in a top-heavy hitting class. Then you trash an UDFA with a short track record of success. Why do you hate us so???
Keith Law: Heh. To be fair, I didn’t trash Mervis. I explained what I saw, which is consistent with the data from his time in the high minors AND with what other scouts who’ve seen him told me. I think he has some big league value.

JT: How ridiculous is the count the rings means of ranking individual players?
Keith Law: Doesn’t Clay Bellinger have three rings? So he’s miles better than Ernie Banks, right?

Chris: Do you think Carlos Correa would stay healthier at 2b? And do you think he’d be a good 2b or would he be better at 3b? Asking as a mariners fan whose president said yesterday they are looking to sign a SS who wants to move to 2b
Keith Law: I’d try third base if I wanted to move him. Second base isn’t necessarily a better position for staying healthy – the double play is always more hazardous for a 2b than a SS.

grobaba: How often do you buy frozen vegetables?
Keith Law: We always keep a supply in the freezer. Peas are the #1 choice, but we usually have that, corn, broccoli, one or two other things.

JT: Is there any chance that the Truss produce fail signifies a potential end to reckless austerity programs and small government?
Keith Law: Seems unlikely, no? But I don’t know British politics well at all.

Appa Yip Yip: What would you do with the Jays catcher situation? I’ve seen people floating the idea of playing Moreno at 3rd and the outfield but that seems like a poor use of resources.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t move Moreno. Defense is a huge part of his value. They could try to mix and match him & Kirk this year, and then trade one for something else they need.

Steve: Can Gorman hit enough for 2b or is he a DH going forward?
Keith Law: Oh his power will play anywhere. Are you asking if he can handle 2B defensively? I always thought he would.

Justin: Hi Keith. The Pirates currently have some pieces in place and coming soon like Cruz, Hayes, Reynolds, Bae (f*** him, but just reality that he’s here and decent at baseball), Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis, and some decent pitching. Their payroll projects around $45 million next yr. Do you think the better path would be to do something like trying to catch lightning in a bottle by getting payroll to $90 mil with additions like Jose Abreu and a few decent SP, or to just tank again with the cheap team they have?
Keith Law: If the owner were willing to spend – stop laughing – I’d go more for up the middle than an older corner bat like Abreu. You probably want to be more risk-averse in free agency, and more risk-loving in amateur player acquisition.
Keith Law: And yeah, some innings guys might help.

Chaz R: Verlander will likely opt out of his contract and become a FA. Should Astros resign him? If so what do you think the contract would look like ?
Keith Law: Yes, any contender should be interested, and given what he’s said about chasing wins milestones they’d remain a good fit.

Chris: Is Jake McCarthy real player? And who from the outfield mix is the odd guy out in Arizona? I know all players won’t develop and it’s not a surplus but who gets the chances?
Keith Law: Yes, he’s legit, and I wonder if Alek Thomas ends up elsewhere.

Ana: Regarding your claim that the sex binary is a myth, how is that true? Are you using “sex” to define something other than gametes? Every mammal is the product of *two* parents, one providing a small mobile gamete (sperm) and one providing a large stationary gamete (egg), and nobody produces both. This is fundamental science and the basis of complex evolution, which requires heritable traits that get passed down from *two* parents to their offspring. Two parents, two gametes = sex is binary. Any attempt to complicate beyond these facts is no longer an attempt to define “sex” but rather something else entirely. It’s a semantic game.
Keith Law: That’s just wrong. Biological sex is determined by chromosomes, not gametes, and there are more than just the two most common combinations (XX and XY). (Ana and Dave are the same user.)

Jim: Keith, what are your thoughts on the draft lottery in place for 2023? On the one hand, it should somewhat lessen the urge to tank (with only a 16.5% chance of the worst team getting the top pick). On the other hand, with it being instituted late in the off-season (well, in the middle of what should have been ST), does it unduly punish teams that may have planned the season under the old rules?
Keith Law: It seems like it has altered teams’ behavior, so I’m a fan.

JR: What has been the most disappointing adaptation of a beloved book into movie/TV show for you? For me, it’s Pachinko (which I believe you’ve read) for two reasons: 1) they tried to tell all facets of the story at same time by sharing a little bit of each era each episode; and 2) instead of using the book story as season one, they went it it with the idea it would be a 3-4 season story, so added a ton of extra details/characters/back stories (which I get you have to do in TV), but overall a huge disappointment to me – and I loved the book.
Keith Law: American Gods. Book is amazing. I never bothered with season 2 after the disappointing first season.

Henry: The NBA has established a great model by canceling all games on Election Day, and encouraging voting. MLB has done nothing, and their equity marketing is abysmal. What’s it going to take for MLB to catch up?
Keith Law: The players. The NBA and even the NFL are ahead because the players pushed it. In MLB, that’s not a thing. I’d guess a nontrivial minority of MLB players believe in the Big Lie.

Mike Trout: Should the Mets prioritize Nimmo? Of all their free agents he seems most likely to live up to his next contract.
Keith Law: Does he? Two full healthy seasons as a big leaguer. I’d be concerned about durability.

Bob: Is Endy Rodriguez a regular or is there more ceiling? Seems to be some question about his power. What days KLaw?
Keith Law: At least a solid regular.

Guest: In your estimation, what went wrong in the development of Corey Ray? I thought he was a near “can’t miss” prospect
Keith Law: Great question and I don’t have a simple answer. I do think it’s telling, and was probably a sign, that someone with his speed and athleticism couldn’t handle centerfield and wasn’t even very good in left. I do wonder if another organization might have handled him differently when he struggled right out of the gate, too. Eventually he changed his swing to get to power but at the cost of contact, and at that point he was pretty much finished.

Insert Witty Name Here: Oh been so long since I can get to a live Klawchat. My wife and I have been discussing the whole transgender issue, and we have a question we want a third party to answer: what’s the threshold for a percentage of a population to where their rights become a “priority”. Example: black people represent 16% of our population, I should prioritize their civil rights. Transgender people are about 5%. While I personally believe that everyone should be treated fairly and with respect, is 1 in 20 people enough to where we need to prioritize their struggle? I believe you even said so yourself that it’s really a political strategy to demonize a small minority to rally up the base, is that correct?
Keith Law: What does “prioritize” mean to you here? Black Americans, gay Americans, women, trans people … they’re asking for the same rights as everyone else. Nobody is trying to give trans people more rights than cis people. However, a large movement – which is demonizing a small minority to rally their base, with the complicity of most of the national media – is trying to deny trans people basic rights, and to deny women basic reproductive rights, and so on. I do not lose anything when other people have the same civil rights that I do. I think I gain, because our society is better when we treat others as equals, and extend kindness rather than fear, ignorance, and hate.

TomBruno23: Unless you want to play a best of 75 it is not possible to have a statistically reliable postseason series, whatever that means.
Keith Law: Yep.

JJ: The stat line says that Nick Yorke took a solid step backwards this season. He was viewed as a reach when the Sox took him in the first round in 2020, but he had a big 2021. Is he still the second baseman of the future?
Keith Law: Maybe? I am uncertain after a not-great look in the AFL. He still has a great fucking swing, though.

addoeh: When you went to Alaska, did you do a cruise or just fly into Anchorage? Did you go to Denali?
Keith Law: Only to Sitka for a weekend while I lived in Seattle. I would love to go to Denali and other parts of Alaska. My wife has never been so it’s on our short list of trips we’d like to take.

James: Do you do these chats at a coffee shop ??
Keith Law: I have, but I’m home right now.

Jon: How confident do you still feel about Dylan Carlson? I know you were high on him I’m still hopeful but this year was a tough one for him
Keith Law: I’m still in. The history of my breakout picks (he was one of mine for this year) says he’ll break out in 2023.

Scott (nyc): this may be a dumb question, but catchers seem to be the worst hitters, but shouldn’t seeing so many pitches as a catcher help them recognize spin and break while hitting?
Keith Law: Don’t catchers usually know what’s coming? Aside from the angle being so different, catchers know the pitch type, so they’re not using part of their brains to decipher that, while hitters must.

Ryan: Should we be concerned about Geraldo Perdomo? His average exit velocity is in the second percentile. It seems like he just needs to get physically stronger.
Keith Law: Yes, I share that concern, for that reason.

Kruk93: more surprising Phillies squad – 1993 or 2022?
Keith Law: I think 2022. The 1993 team won the NL East.

Steve: What would be your prescription for the Rays to improve their anemic offense? Seems like they should trade one of Glasnow/McClanahan/Rasmussen/Springs for hitting (the latter two more likely). A healthy Wander will obviously help but even aside from him and a couple others (Arozarena, Y.Diaz) it’s a wasteland, and guys who were supposed to inject some life into it (J.Lowe, Brujan) haven’t looked like they can hit much at the big-league level.
Keith Law: When you’re below the league median in both OBP (barely) and SLG (by a fair amount), you’ll be below the league median in runs per game. So fix one or both of those things. Wander will help. They may have to be patient with Lowe and Brujan. And going out to get a thumper wouldn’t hurt.

Marvin: How aggressive should the Yanks be with Jasson Dominguez next season? He seems to have shown the ability to make adjustments.
Keith Law: They already have been – he finished the year in AA and the AFL as a 19-year-old. He’ll start next year in AA in his age-20 season and I bet he’ll be in AAA by the All-Star Break.

TomBruno23: Aaron C…check out Bobby Witt’s numbers in college and in the minors. Man.
Keith Law: Funny, that’s exactly the name that came to mind. Zero chance he goes in the top ten today (he went third overall).

xxx(yyy): was Evan Carter just a guy who fell through the cracks and would in a “typical” year, or just a result of a COVID year draft?
Keith Law: Scouts saw a lot of swing and miss from him in high school. Texas took him high, so I don’t think he fell through the cracks – we don’t know if a bunch of other teams were waiting in the wings on him, either. I still think he’s too passive at the plate.

Jon: Assuming Cruz moves off SS, is Liover Peguero a guy or a GUY?
Keith Law: More of a guy. Disappointed in multiple looks at him this year. Needs to get stronger, but also his approach was behind where I thought it would be.

Sharlott: Gut on what Judge signs for (whether its the Yankees or not)? Even with the superb season, I just don’t see him getting astronomically more than he turned down because of the age/injury-risk, no?
Keith Law: I think he gets more years than is prudent, but a lower AAV.

James: Do you like Joe Davis broadcasts or do you still watch on mute ?
Keith Law: Joe is fantastic. I’m very happy any time I hear his voice. Unfortunately I have not found the app that lets me hear him and mute Smoltz.

James: Thoughts on gas prices, inflation, direction of economy ? What grade would you give Biden so far ?
Keith Law: I don’t think any President has much if any control over gas prices or inflation, unfortunately. Lot of things a President can affect, but gas is a global commodity, and we are subject to the whims of the market. When the Saudis choose to cut production – and that’s a whole can-open-worms-everywhere situation – we’re largely at their mercy. I also think inflation would be less of a concern if wages were keeping pace, and that is something that the President could do more to help when his party controls Congress.

Tracy: Book question: any recommendations of mysteries? Thanks!
Keith Law: The Magpie Murders by Anthony Horowitz.

JR: Are tommy john surgeries/serious pitching injuries trending down? The past season or two feel like there have been less. Perhaps all the steps organizations are taking to protect arms are working? O
Keith Law: I don’t think TJs are trending down across the whole sport, but I believe that other significant arm injuries are down.

Chris: About how much of your boardgame time is spent replaying tried and true games from your collection vs trying new ones? Back when I first started playing games, we’d get a lot of plays in on a smaller set of titles and really get to explore the different strategies and meta-strategies that develop from repeated plays. It’s much harder to do that now when folks around the table want to try the shiny new thing (and the collection has gotten much bigger as well).
Keith Law: Way more playing new stuff. I would prefer to balance it more with family favorites, but I get so many new games to review and I want to try them all.

Nick: Thanks for the chat. Did you get a chance to see any of the Tigers contingent in AZ? Meadows appeared to make some improvement this year and Keith was off to a good start before the injury.
Keith Law: Meadows wasn’t good for me. Keith also had a rough week.

TomBruno23: Ryan Loutos…not exactly a top prospect although his background as a Wash U pitcher on the doorstep of the majors is cool. Also cool is the scouting analyst who signed him is Julia Prusaczyk. Women in Baseball. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/cardinals-righthander-ryan-lou…
Keith Law: 93-95 with what I thought were two distinct breaking balls. Reliever all the way. He’s something, though.

Michael Bluth: Where does Bryan Reynolds settle in as a player? 3-4 WAR most years? Better than that? And defensive metrics hated him in CF, is that likely to change at all?
Keith Law: I think a 3-4 WAR corner outfielder is about right.

Billy: How does Jordan Lawlar look in the Fall League? AZ Republic quoted a scout who said he looks better than all the rest of the Dbacks players. That’s incredible, since Carroll looks like a stud.
Keith Law: He was in my first AFL notebook, linked at the top of this chat.

JT: “Two parents, two gametes = sex is binary. “

Remind Ana that there aren’t only two eye colours, too, hey? How two gametes mix has to produce an I/O sitch?
Keith Law: It’s a rather weird, new to me transphobic argument. Just leave other people and their bodies alone. It’s not your business.

John: To what extent does WAR take into account how often a player is on the field? I assume it doesn’t. But if I sign a high WAR player with an injury history (thinking Correa), then I really need to make sure I have a relatively strong utility player who can fill the gaps. Viewed through that lens, would it be preferable to sign a player with a slightly lower WAR but who stays on the field more (e.g., Bogaerts, if we ignore that his WAR was slightly higher than Correa’s this year)?
Keith Law: Of course it does – if you hit at the same rate in 80 games vs 160 games, your WAR for the latter total (ceteris paribus) will be a lot higher.

Swinging A’s: Zack Gelof, just a guy or a GUY. Thanks Keith
Keith Law: I’m in. He’s a GUY.

twinkie town: Did you get a chance to see Edouard Julien in Az? If yes, your impression?
Keith Law: All I saw was him taking pitches. My gut reaction was that he is also too passive.

Michael: “When should I prioritize their civil rights?” What a joke. How about not try to willfully hurt anyone?
Keith Law: Do unto others, no? I thought that was in that book the transphobes are so fond of?

Todd: Thoughtrs on Will Warren Yankees? Legit MLB starter?
Keith Law: Reliever. Wrote him up in August.

Mike: Do you think it’s a coincidence that Bader, Donaldson and Torres will all have their contracts run out when Volpe, Peraza and Dominguez should be ready for MLB full time?
Keith Law: I do not think it’s a coincidence, at least around Volpe. I’m pretty sure they were low key betting on him being ready for 2023, recognizing that the free agent market would probably cover them if he wasn’t (and that’s before we knew Correa would get an opt out).

Ollie: Did you have Daulton Varsho becoming an elite defensive outfielder on your 2022 bingo card? Because I sure didn’t! Wow, he’s such a good athlete.
Keith Law: I absolutely, 100% did not have that.

Michael: Hey James, check out how inflation is in other countries compared to the US. Much lower here
Keith Law: The Euro zone is around 10%, almost 200 basis points above ours.

Insert Witty Name Here: By prioritize, I mean changing my usual behavior. For example, is a pronoun really a rights issue? If I mistakenly call a “they” a “him”, that person gets upset. Is 5% of the population a large enough sample size to where I have to be fully cognizant of what language I use? And if so, what’s the threshold for us to have to worry about everyone preferences? 2%? 5%? 10%?
Keith Law: Using proper pronouns is a hardship?

Dave: You’re running the Orioles. Do you spend on a starter and let the young position players play?
Keith Law: Yes, and see above for more on what I would do (and expect them to do).
Keith Law: I don’t think they were actually as good as their record this year, but I also think they will be a flat-out better team next year even without outside help. So give them outside help and they might be a 90+ win team.

Kevin Made: Did you get Cristian Hernández and I mixed up in your earlier response to the Mervis question?

Also thoughts on Jordan Wicks’ new slider? Stuff+ loves it. Does it bump his ceiling up?
Keith Law: I did not confuse the two of you.

TomBruno23: Interesting episode of The Daily this morning about how Republicans are using Inflation, Crime and Immigration as the issues to sway swing voters. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?i=1000583…
Keith Law: I saw a ridiculous number of political ads and billboards in Arizona, and the two most common themes for Republican candidates were the border (overblown, but at least they’re a border state) and … fentanyl. It’s like some focus group told campaign managers that fentanyl was a new four-letter word or something. Nobody is putting fentanyl in your kid’s Halloween basket. You can’t get sick just by touching it. All these myths about papers soaked in fentanyl and fentanyl wiped on car doors … they’re hoaxes, and also ridiculous, because what user or dealer is just throwing the stuff away anyway?
Keith Law: You know what I didn’t see mentioned anywhere? The pandemic, which has killed over a million Americans. Or wages.

Mike: Global inflation is the product of 10+ years, and multiple adminstrations, artificially depressing interest rates by increasing the money supply. Inflation at some point was a mathematical certainty – it was just a matter of when and how high.
Keith Law: Good point.

Michael: Hey Keith- I know changing of a manager is usually not worth more than a couple wins. Was there something specific in the change from Girardi to Rob T that made it such a huge impact on the Phils season? Or are you not buying that the change was the reason for the subsequent success. Post hoc ergo propter hoc or no?
Keith Law: I am more inclined to believe such a change mattered when specific players improve after the change in meaningful ways – like Stott.

Appa Yip Yip: If you meet someone named Thomas and they’re like actually I prefer Tom is it a hardship to call them Tom?
Keith Law: Don’t a lot of people get irrationally upset if they’re called ma’am instead of sir or vice versa?

ChrisP: How soon before Neto gets to the big leagues? His skill set seems like he might be a quick mover
Keith Law: I would guess by mid-2024.
Keith Law: Although it’s the Angels, he might be up next week.

Guardians: What do we have in Nolan Jones? Future big leaguer?
Keith Law: Big leaguer, more likely a platoon or bench guy than a regular.

Insert Witty Name Here: You’re not getting the point of my question. We haven’t been using “they/them” for that long as a social issue. Because they only represent 5% of the population, is there another population of people that represent 5% to where we have to change our usual behavior to their preferences because of their feelings? If I call a they/them a him because they look like a typical man, why should I feel bad about that?
Keith Law: The singular they/them has existed for centuries. Just ask people and try to use their pronouns. Also, I’m 1000% certain that the biggest issue for LGBTQ+ folks isn’t pronouns. It’s their right to exist.

TomBruno23: Has Mike Matheny managed his last MLB game?
Keith Law: Nothing personal against the guy, but I think that is for the best.

xxx(yyy): what is your at home coffee routine/process?
Keith Law: I either use a V60 pour-over or make an espresso macchiato (so a double shot with a small amount of foamed milk). I go back and forth. The former has more caffeine because I use about 20% more coffee by weight, so sometimes that’s the determining factor. Today I needed that extra 20%. And then that’s usually my only coffee for the day.

James: Did you watch the Pizza show on Netflix ? With Bianco in it
Keith Law: No but I need to. I tried to go to the original location when I had an unexpected window on Saturday and they had a four-hour wait – it hasn’t been like that in years. Great for them. Less so for me.

Todd: How much of a concern is it that after the November elections, Republicans will have so much control that a plain sight coup is actually possible? Validate elections that only benefit them
Keith Law: Everyone should vote their conscience. I do believe that our democracy’s health is very much at stake this November, though.

Tracy: Too many books, so little time?
Keith Law: Absolutely. I’m about 3 behind in reviews now, too. And I have the Hugo winner (A Desolation Called Peace … what a pretentious title) checked out from the library, and would like to get the Booker winner soon too. Plus I bought seven books at Changing Hands in AZ.
Keith Law: I could live in a very small house if I didn’t have all the books and board games.

Todd: Piggy backig off the above, how far removed from Trump’s mere existence do we have to be to actually get back to pre Trump politics? Or a sense of rationality
Keith Law: Last question for this week … No political movement is going to go away if it works. If voters reject a movement, it’ll die off, and in our case the party in question will swerve to something else. That’s true for either party, for any movement. Trumpism will endure as long as it wins elections. When that stops, the Republican Party will shift to a different set of ideas or policies, or perhaps another candidate. The same would be true for Democrats – it’s not the same thing, but the party abandoned a lot of its principles during the Clinton era for the sake of retaining power. I don’t think this is any big insight.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat. My next big post for the Athletic will be my free agent rankings, which will run after the World Series ends, maybe the next day depending on the schedule. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ October 20, 2022
→ By keith

Athena.

Athena is the newest feature from Romain Gavras, son of Oscar-winning writer and director Costa-Gavras, who has a great eye for action sequences and can put you right on the edge of your seat, starting out this film with a literal and figurative bang. The script has Shakespearean aspirations, but the story doesn’t work well enough to achieve its goals or to match the quality of the action sequences.

Athena is the name of a housing complex in an unnamed French city that is home to a large population of Algerian-French citizens, and as the film opens, we see one of them, a police officer named Abdel (Dali Benssalah, who was in No Time to Die), asking for peace in the wake of the death of his 13-year-old brother Idir. A video has gone viral showing Idir’s beating death at the hands of several men in police uniforms, which serves as the spark in the powder keg of Athena; Abdel has barely finished speaking when the camera spans to the crowd, where we see a young man, Karim (Sami Slimane), lighting a Molotov cocktail that he’ll throw into the police station. This leads to a daylong standoff between Athena residents, led by Karim, who is Idir’s and Abdel’s brother, demanding the police deliver Idir’s killers to them, and the French police, with Abdel caught in the middle, distrusting his superiors and trying to avoid any further harm to his family.

The action sequences in Athena are fantastic, starting with that Molotov cocktail and Karim’s followers invading the police station to try to loot it of weapons. It ends in one of several memorable shots, this one with Karim and company standing or sitting at the edge of one of the roofs in the complex, all steely-eyed and determined and also too young to be doing this. His side will end up taking a police officer hostage, something telegraphed from the very beginning of the film, further ratcheting up the tension amid the uncertainty whether he’s going to survive, or whether any of the brothers – there’s a third, a drug dealer with anger management problems named Moktar – are going to either. It’s a grim view of modern French society and the relationship between the police and the people, although it may be a realistic one.

The script seems more concerned with keeping the tension cranked up to 11 than with advancing the plot in a meaningful way, or saying anything beyond, hey, there’s a lot of anger out there, you know? The film isn’t making an actual statement on police violence, as the police in the film respond to Abdel by saying they believe Idir’s killers were in fact far-right agitators wearing police uniforms to try to light the match and usher in some kind of race war; the uncertainty around that is enough to muddle the narrative even as it also casts Abdel’s choices in a different light.

The brothers are all Muslims, as are most of the residents of Athena, but the film does next to nothing with this information. This feels like a huge omission – the rights of Muslims in France remains a contentious issue, on top of decades of discrimination against Algerians, and Athena just ignores it. The police shown in the film are at least somewhat diverse, with Black and white officers, and of course Abdel as a Muslim officer, which could be fodder for multiple subthemes, but the movie can barely handle Abdel’s dual role as a cop and an Algerian resident of the Athena complex, with no energy left for anything else.

Even as an action movie, with plenty to recommend it on that score, Athena feels a bit like empty calories because it can’t stick the landing at all, choosing a slam-bang finish over a meaningful or even a sensible one. It’s just my inference, but I certainly thought the way the film ends indicated pretensions towards Shakespearean tragedy, but in this case, the tragic deaths are just not earned, not one of them. It just ends up aggravating you because you can’t help but feel like all that buildup was for nothing. It’s 80 minutes of a sugar rush and 20 minutes of insulin shock. For a film that starts with a ton of promise, and features some incredible cinematography and memorable shots, it ends in a disappointing fizzle.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2022 movies, action films, disappointments, french films, movies

→ October 10, 2022
→ By keith

Behold the Man.

Michael Moorcock has a huge bibliography of fantasy, science fiction, and some literary fiction, while also writing lyrics and even singing on a couple of tracks for bands like Hawkwind and Blue Öyster Cult, and I’d never heard of him until I came across one of his books in the London bookstore Hatchard’s in August. Moorcock won the Nebula Award for Best Novella for Behold the Man, which plays with a small but interesting conceit: A time traveler goes back to the time of Jesus, only to find that the ostensible Messiah isn’t, and that John the Baptist and his followers think the time traveler might be the promised savior.

Karl Glogauer is a man adrift in his world in the early 1970s, dabbling in studying philosophy, engaging in and sabotaging various romantic relationships, never finding an actual job or calling, or anything that might anchor him in society. He ends up falling in with a mad scientist who claims to have developed a time machine, which we know actually worked – once – because Karl crash-landed in AD 28 in the device, which was damaged badly enough that there’s no hope of a return trip. Because he arrived in a strange box in a flash of light, the people who saw him think he must be supernatural, and of course word spreads that someone who might be the Adonai.

You can sort of see where the book is going early on, even though Jesus doesn’t actually appear until past the halfway point, but in this case the plot isn’t the point. I’m sure some readers would find it sacrilegious, but this is more a character study than an attack on religion. Karl is a man without a purpose, with multiple neuroses, even told by at least one of his girlfriends that he has a messiah complex. Moorcock intertwines the 1970s narrative with the Nazarene one, so you can see the character developing as you watch his reactions to the Jews of Christ’s era trying to ascertain if he is the Chosen One – and then trying to convince him that he is. Karl goes from trying to dissuade John the Baptist and other followers that he’s anyone special to becoming a peregrinator to taking deliberate steps to fulfill the events of the Bible, not out of faith or obligation, but because it gives him a sense of purpose.

Whether this novella works for you will depend on what you think of Karl, and perhaps how much you know of either the Gospels or the works of Carl Jung. I know a bit about the former but very little of the latter, other than that he was influential early in the days of psychiatry and believed in a lot of stuff we know now as woo. The novella does subvert the hero’s journey in multiple ways, from the way that Karl knows exactly what he has to do, since it’s already been written, to the fact that he’s deceiving everybody he meets, either because he’s a narcissist, or because he believes he’s doing the right thing by fulfilling the Scriptures.

Moorcock’s prose style is very easy to read, even with the frequent time-shifting and differences in dialogue styles between the two settings, and the author doesn’t overburden the prose with background information, such as more about Jung’s beliefs. There’s a somewhat disjointed passage about Karl having a fling with an older man, which I think makes the mistake of the time period of conflating homosexuality with a clear case of abuse, that hasn’t aged well. Beyond that, it was more than good enough for me to look into more of Moorcock’s oeuvre.

Next up: Still reading Hervé Le Tellier’s The Anomaly.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: nebula award, novellas, science fiction

→ October 9, 2022
→ By keith

Wired for Love.

Dr. Stephanie Cacioppo spent her early career researching the neuroscience of love, even as she privately doubted that she’d ever find it in her personal life. Then she did, in a whirlwind romance with Dr. John Cacioppo, an esteemed researcher on the effects of loneliness who happened to be 20 years her senior. They married inside of a year, and spent almost seven years together before a rare salivary cancer took his life in 2018. Her new book Wired for Love: a Neuroscientist’s Journey Through Romance, Loss and the Essence of Human Connection is part memoir, part popular science tome, a brief but engaging look at the subject of her research, interspersed with the story of her life with John.

The Cacioppos’ story together is bittersweet, wonderful at first until it turns tragic, even more than you might expect from a marriage of two people separated by over twenty years. John even warns her before they marry that they’re not likely to have that many years together, and he worries about ‘leaving’ her too soon, but that can hardly prepare them for what’s about to befall them. It would seem like the plot of a Nicholas Sparks novel if it weren’t someone’s actual life: Their areas of research were already similar, and they met and fell in love despite the huge age gap and the fact that they lived on different continents, after which they published several joint papers in a field that needed more attention, only to have him die of a rare, aggressive cancer before he turned 70.

The real interest in the book is her work on the neuroscience of love, and if anything, I wish there were more of it. Some of the content revolves around how little interest there was in the topic when she began her academic career, with almost no research on the subject, and substantial institutional and individual objections to her attempts to undertake this research. (I’m sure much of it was worse because she was a young woman trying to research this, which I’m sure elicited eyerolls from the men who ran the neurology departments and IRBs who had to support and approve those proposals.)

Eventually, she did get published, and her research came to more public notice, earning her the moniker “Dr. Love,” which I couldn’t read without hearing Paul Stanley’s voice. Her published papers include works on the “toxic effects of perceived social isolation,” an fMRI analysis on the interactions in the brain between sexual desire and love, and multiple papers on the neurology of loneliness that she co-authored with her husband. It’s important work that has helped highlight the large health cost of loneliness, or perceived loneliness, which others, including current Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, have identified as an “epidemic” with large medical and social costs.

Wired for Love only scratches the surface of Cacioppo’s work, to the detriment of the book; it’s not a book about loneliness or the neuroscience of love, per se, but it could have used more in the science half to balance out the tragic romance story of her personal life. It’s even more powerful knowing that her story starts and ends with her being alone, which could have led to some discussion of the neuroscience of grieving, or how to cope with the loneliness after the death of a loved one. The half of the book about her whirlwind romance and too-brief marriage with John Cacioppo was beautiful, but it didn’t educate readers as much as it could have given her body of work as a researcher and the importance of the subject. I was left wanting a good bit more on the science side.

Next up: I’m three books down the road already, but right now I’m reading Hervé Le Tellier’s novel The Anomaly, winner of the prestigious Prix Goncourt, France’s equivalent of the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction, in 2020.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: history of science, memoirs, neurology, non-fiction, science

→ October 8, 2022
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 10/8/22.

My hypothetical ballots for five of the six major postseason player awards went up for subscribers to the The Athletic this week. I also held a Klawchat on Friday.

At Paste, I reviewed Wormholes, a space-themed pickup-and-delivery game that’s very easy to learn. I think it’s great for family play, on the weight and fun level of Ticket to Ride.

On The Keith Law Show this week, I spoke with Sports Illustrated’s Stephanie Apstein about the postseason awards, playoff predictions, rules changes, and more. You can listen and subscribe via iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, amazon, or wherever you get your podcasts.

I sent out another edition of my free email newsletter on Friday night. Also, you can buy either of my books, Smart Baseball or The Inside Game, via bookshop.org at those links, or at your friendly local independent bookstore. I hear they make great holiday gifts.

And now, the links…

Longreads first: A Colorado state custody evaluator, who happens to be the brother of actor Val Kilmer, has a history of disbelieving abuse allegations and recommended a teenaged victim stay under the control of her abuser, according to an extensive report from ProPublica. Mark Kilmer has also been convicted of harassing his ex-wife, who accused him of assaulting her.

From last June, this WIRED story on the conflict between a potential lithium mine that could help power tens of thousands of electric cars and a single species of wild buckwheat that only lives on that one site in Nevada is balanced and beautifully written.

The Washington Post let investigative reporter Radley Balko go, a very disappointing decision as the paper seems to be leaning away from the serious journalism that made them worth paying for in the last six years. He has a new post up on his Substack about how Arkansas has kept a severely intellectually disabled man in prison for 30 years, even with questions about his guilt.

Thousands of Americans have died thanks to the propaganda efforts of anti-vaccine quacks and cranks, writes Kurt Anderson for the Atlantic.

Also from ProPublica: Mississippi police departments have taken to hiding search warrants from the public, flouting state laws on making them available at courthouses, which has the result of protecting officers who may have violated residents’ Fourth Amendment rights in no-knock searches. I donated to ProPublica today, as their journalism is incredible and this type of depth becoming more rare in our media landscape.

The Guardian has an extract from the upcoming book The Ransomware Hunting Team: A Band of Misfits’ Improbable Crusade to Save the World from Cybercrime, which you can pre-order here.
The BBC has a story on the ignominious and ongoing history of book-banning, even in liberal, democratic societies.

Scientific American spoke to Dutch mathematician Ionica Smeets about her work fighting the misuse of statistics by anti-science folks.

It’s not perfect, but it’s a start: a new California law bans doctors from giving patients medical misinformation during direct care.

Chess player Hans Niemann likely cheated in over 100 online games, but there’s no evidence he’s done so in a live game, according to an investigation by Chess.com.

A Kansas City cop tasered a handcuffed child in the back of his police car and still has his license.

The attorney for the family of an LAPD cop who died during a training exercise has alleged he was killed by fellow officers for being a whistleblower.

Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) ran a TV ad so racist the Des Moines Register ran an editorial saying it has no place in their community. The ad seeks to distinguish white Iowan society from anything other.

TIME has a story on Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D) and her message that Democrats can’t ignore the importance of state races as they try to hold both houses of Congress.

Could Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) be in actual legal trouble now that the identity of the woman who lured migrants on to his Publicity Stunt Airways flight to Massachusetts has been revealed?

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar weighed in on another DeSantis controversy, where the Governor went on Fox News and falsely claimed that no Americans questioned slavery prior to the Revolutionary War. Even I knew the Quakers were abolitionists well before American independence. He also called out Kyrie Irving’s idiocy for spreading nonsense conspiracy theories on his Instagram account.

Facebook banned the Proud Boys four years ago, but the site’s software still auto-generates pages for the group and its affiliates.

The hollow chocolate bunnies of the apocalypse? A Swiss court ruled that Lidl’s chocolate bunnies were too easily confused with Lindt’s and ordered the retailer to destroy its stock.

Board game news: A tiny publisher at Central Michigan University has a Kickstarter up for Rising Waters, a new historical-themed board game about the 1927 Mississippi flood that also focuses on the huge racial disparities exposed by the disaster.

The roll-and-write game Draft & Write Records is already funded on Kickstarter with 11 days to go.

This New York Times story on Russian men fleeing to neighboring countries to avoid being forced to serve in the war against Ukraine has a photo of some of those men playing the board game Splendor.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: anti-science, arkansas, board game news, chess, colorado, environment, florida, iowa, links, longreads, michigan, misinformation, mississippi, police, stick to baseball, vaccines

→ October 7, 2022
→ By keith

Klawchat 10/7/22.

My hypothetical postseason awards ballots column is up now for subscribers to The Athletic. I also reviewed the board game Wormholes, a good gateway game to play with your kids.

Keith Law: There’s no point in asking, you’ll get no reply. Klawchat.

Bighen: Ton of chatter on Mets holding deGrom out of game 2 if they win tonight, how would you align their rotation? Also Carrasco or Walker if Mets need to use 4th starter at some point.
Keith Law: Not a big fan of that unless there’s a health-related reason to do so. Don’t outsmart yourselves.

Alex: The Red Sox just dropped $220 million to finish in last place (for the 2nd time in three seasons). Is Chaim Bloom just not qualified to run a big market team? It’s one thing to be an assistant in a “Nobody Cares” market like Tampa, but Boston is a completely different animal. He’s traded away Betts, Benintendi, Renfroe, Springs, Vazquez et al, and received nothing of note in return.
Keith Law: Jeez, this is the most knee-jerk take imaginable. Ownership forced the Betts trade, and it’s not like Verdugo is nothing, just a good platoon player. Not sure what you thought they’d get for Springs or Benintendi or even Renfroe (I like Binelas some, although the AA debut was very disappointing; he hits the ball very hard). And you’re underselling Wilyer Abreu a ton. But the bigger issue is that you’re reacting based on a small subset of decisions in a short period of time.

Doug: What’s Cristian Pache’s future in MLB? 4OF? Starter? He’s young of course, but hasn’t done much with his opportunities so far.
Keith Law: I think he’s a starter, but he clearly hasn’t been ready for MLB pitching and the decision to promote and keep him up so much of last year looks bad in hindsight. Defense & power are more than enough for him to be an average regular, but the A’s are going to have to just live with the low OBPs for a while now.

Jay: Why is there a rush to introduce a pitch clock at the MLB level? Are we really in a rush to fill air time with more empty talking head type shows rather than a live event? No thank you.
Keith Law: Oh I’m a big fan of the pitch clock after seeing how much it speeds up minor league games. It gets rid of a lot of dead time – which, by the way, might just be filled with empty commentary because so many broadcasters are afraid of silence.

Heather: I’ll give you five dollars if you can promise me, right now, that I’ll never have to hear from or about Tony LaRussa ever again.
Keith Law: I wish I could promise that, but you know next June some reporter with no new ideas will track him down to get Old Man Yells at Cloud content.
Keith Law: TLR had a great career. It is a shame it had to end with this regrettable stint in Chicago. It’s like when an acclaimed actor’s last film is some B movie or voicing a character in the Emoji Movie or something.

JJ: Brayan Bello has never thrown more than 118 innings in a season in his professional career. What kind of cap, if any, would you put on him in 2023?
Keith Law: I don’t feel remotely qualified to answer that. One, I know nothing about his arm or his health. Two, the claim that there was some magic threshold around +30 innings is unsupported by evidence.

Guest: Can you explain why you consider Bonds’ record to be legitimate? It was clearly obtained through committing crimes and breaking the rules of the game, aka cheating. Lance Armstrong was stripped of all his titles and records. I don’t see how this is any different
Keith Law: “Clearly” is doing a lot of work there. I know of no evidence he “committed crimes” and the reality is that the rules of the game to which you refer were either unenforced or nonexistent (e.g., MLB didn’t ban the use of HGH till 2005). Bonds never tested positive for any PEDs. That is by far the best and most objective standard we can use. He failed as many tests as Maris and Aaron did – and given that HGH and amphetamines were available by 1960, I’m not sure why we would assume anyone from a prior era is automatically clean just because there was no testing.

Tom: Hey Keith – do you think Jake Alu could be an everyday regular next season for the nats?
Keith Law: I don’t, unless he’s a much better defender at third base than I realized. That would make him a regular.

Jourdyn: Spencer Strider or Alek Manoah long term?
Keith Law: I love both but I’ll bet on Manoah because of the broader pitch mix.

Efrim: How impressed are you with Alex’s work with Atlanta since taking over? Obviously he was always thought of as a good exec, but the work he did in revamping the front office and adding more analytics based employees. Plus, Dana Brown(amateur draft hire) has worked out well.
Keith Law: Overall, he’s been outstanding, although having worked with Alex I’m 0% surprised by this. The one real misstep I saw was firing Brian Bridges, whose drafts look even better in hindsight, although I can’t say that Atlanta’s drafts have suffered much in his absence either.

Al: How many owners kill their teams Championship chances in the name of money?
Keith Law: Expanding the playoffs actually makes this easier, so look for that number to increase. I might have said Cleveland except they’re in the playoffs and I think they have as good a chance to win as any team.

Michael: Any explanation for the very good season by Pujols after years of being terrible? How about Tyler Anderson? Is one season just a SSS or did they do something different?
Keith Law: The Cards used Pujols very judiciously – like 1/3 of his PA vs LHP, whom he’s always hit. .315 OBP vs RHP. Anderson’s I think is a little more interesting – some health, some increased use of the CH (which was his best pitch all the way back in college).

Tom: any concern with Cj abrams offense, specifically his low walk rate, in 2022?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: He needs to get stronger. That’s it for me.

Juwan: The Meneses ride was exhilarating in an otherwise horrendous season, do you view the bat as real?
Keith Law: Great story, but no.

Jack: which core would you rather have (pirates young talent / orioles young talent) ?
Keith Law: Orioles. Although they’re short on pitching – this is the time to trade some of this young hitter surplus to go get at least one experienced starter.

G: Oneil Cruz improved at the plate as the season went on, and did enough in the last month to give me genuine optimism about his future at the plate. With that being said, is there any reason for the Pirates to continue playing him at SS next season?
Keith Law: No. He was one of the worst defenders at SS this year by OAA, and given his size the odds have always been against him staying there. I’d move him to CF and let him put the speed to better use.

James: Does this project to be a strong top of the draft? What do you view as its strength?
Keith Law: Much better college pitching in 2023. Don’t know if I’d call it “strong” but it’s a more interesting group of players in the first round.

Tom: Sss alert – but Elijah green proving those swing and miss reports may be accurate – any concern after seeing him struggle with that in his pro debut?
Keith Law: Twelve games. He only played 12 games. We can’t draw any conclusions from that.

Captain Marani: Does Yadier Molina get into the HOF? In St. Louis, home of The Best Fans in Baseball, he’s considered a mortal lock, but he better hope that he and Buster Posey are never listed side-by-side on the voters’ ballots.
Keith Law: I have a feeling he’s going to end up getting in given enough time. Vizquel was probably going to get in, with a worse case than Molina, until the stories alleging domestic violence and sexual harassment came out. Prior to that, I thought they were similar players – very good but not HoF-worthy, overrated by specific subsets of writers who could be swayed by comments from other players, coaches, managers, etc.

Champdo: How worried should we be about Torkelson
Keith Law: He’s 22. I didn’t love him the one time I saw him as a underclassman, because I didn’t see great bat speed or athleticism, but all he ever did from that point until his debut this year was hit for average and power. I’ll defer to the long history of performance here.

Paul: Do you like the draft lottery? Seems a fair bit more punitive than other lotteries in other leagues with the worst teams potentially falling to the bottom of the top ten rather than the middle of the top ten if they aren’t lucky.
Keith Law: I do think it’ll deter some tanking, and reduces the chances of a team drafting #1 overall three straight years like Houston did. I would prefer to see a system that pays the very best 5-10 players in each class more fairly, with some sort of modified free agency for them, but that’s probably never happening.

Patrick: I feel like a lot of people still sort of view Ohtani playing both ways as sort of a novelty, where the main pull is the *uniqueness* of it. His pitching especially didn’t seem to get the respect it deserves this year, when he is a legit Cy Young candidate. Am I wrong in thinking that?
Keith Law: You are correct now that he’s finally pitching like the guy he was prior to signing with the Angels. He became a CYA contender this year, really.

Troy: Burnes/Yelich/Mitchell for May/Lux/Vargas/Miller who says no?
Keith Law: Why would the Dodgers do that? Yelich’s contract is an albatross. And the Dodgers seem quite able to draft and develop pitching.

Ted: Just wanted to recommend Iain Reid’s new novel “We Spread.” His previous novels have been very entertaining, both are quick reads and I can understand why they were both turned into films. The new one packs a genuine emotional punch, though. Worth checking out.
Keith Law: Not familiar with his work – thank you.

Owen: What do you make of Andrew Heaney’s season? Is it projectable going forward?
Keith Law: Yes.

Devon: Hi Keith! Thanks for the chat! I was wondering how you feel about Wander’s power? Hamate bone might have been bothering him for awhile…
Keith Law: Yeah, write off his 2022 completely for that reason.

Ryan: How concerned are you about Alek Thomas going forward? Great defense but it seemed like he wasn’t able to pull anything with authority in the second half
Keith Law: I was extremely surprised and disappointed by his low contact quality. I never thought he was a big power guy – average at best – but he didn’t hit the ball hard at all in the big leagues this year, and that is a concern.

frank: Sean Hjelle had some good appearances for the Giants at the end of the season. Is he anything more than a back of the rotation starter?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but I think he’s capable of being a 4th or 5th starter.

Jay: Why is it that, every time I watch “The Godfather” (I & II only, of course), Diane Keaton gets more and more annoying? Forget about offing Fredo, Tony, you’re better off whacking Kay!
Keith Law: Yes, she’s a poorly written character, to put it mildly. That’s a movie written and directed by men about men. She’s a prop.

Baseball: It’s Fun!: More interesting division/divisional race going into 2023: AL East or NL West? The Diamondbacks seem poised to at least take a step forward and the Giants are bound to look better than they did this year, plus the Orioles, Sox and Rays should be much improved on the AL East side. What do you think?
Keith Law: I think the AL East. The Dodgers are still a juggernaut, and the Rockies are not going to contend next year. But the AL East might have five legitimate contenders next year, and I don’t think any team is head and shoulders above the rest there like the Dodgers are in the West.

Steve: Re: Boston and Bloom – I mean Boston hasn’t been to the ALCS since….2021
Keith Law: It’s a drought.

Pat: Every prospect ranking had Victor Robles as pretty much guaranteed as at least a league average regular- if not signifcantly more. What happened to him, and is it too late to find it?
Keith Law: He is what will happen to Alek Thomas if Thomas doesn’t start hitting the ball harder.

Leites: Hi Keith! Curious what you see as the upside for Elehuris Montero and Michael Toglia at this point . . .
Keith Law: I still give Montero a chance to be a regular. I don’t see it with Toglia.

Benji: If you were Scott Harris, how aggressive would you be this offseason? Lots of roster turnover is coming, but would you expect that to be filled with more interesting AAAA players and spare vets or legitimate middle to upper class FAs? Long ways to go or with the perpetually weak AL Central does it make sense to push sooner?
Keith Law: I think you have to fix whatever’s going on internally – lack of development + lot of injuries – before you go externally.

Roger: Thoughts on the debuts for Ryne Nelson and Drey Jameson? They seemed to get hit pretty hard in AAA but had great outings in the majors. I don’t want to be the box score guy but I haven’t been able to watch actual tape of their MLB starts yet.
Keith Law: Bear in mind that their AAA club is in Reno, about 4000 feet above sea level, and plays a ton of games at other extreme hitters’ parks. I mostly disregard all of their stats from there as I do with Albuquerque.

Appa Yip Yip: Have you gotten any looks at Addison Barger?
Keith Law: Yes and I wrote about him here: https://klaw.me/3wAuQpa

Lorne: Is Baltimore an “attractive” FA destination since the future is/at least looks bright? What once was a great baseball city has suffered through some tough decades (?) and it’d be nice to finally see a rebound
Keith Law: I absolutely believe any team is an attractive destination for free agents if they offer more money than any other club.

JR: Was a little surprised you had Judge as MVP. While clearly you laid out the rational reasons it’s just hard for me to comprehend how a guy like Ohtani that does so well as a hitter and pitcher isn’t an auto win for the MVP. I figured the Judge rhetoric was media trying to talk itself out of Ohtani so I appreciated you laying it out with the numbers to back it up.
Keith Law: I talked about it on my pod yesterday with Stephanie Apstein. I was surprised (but am not disagreeing) that she thought Judge would win it in a rout – I thought Ohtani would get more of those he’s-a-novelty votes. But she probably has a better feel for this than I do.
Keith Law: BTW, thank goodness they didn’t overturn that HR call. What a shitshow that would have been.

Moritz: Hi Keith, not sure if you have seen it or commented on it already. MLB have decided to black out the postseason for all international MLB TV users. Great Job growing the game…
Keith Law: I haven’t seen this and can’t find anything on this in a quick search. Is that accurate? Are they just charging more or something?

Dan: How much credence do you give people like Chris O’Leary (aka The Pain Guy on Twitter)? He claims to have “fixed Adam Wainwright”
Keith Law: Zero.

Kevin: Thoughts on shift “ban?” Do you think teams will just work around it by shifting the LF into short right against lefties or is that too much of a risk leaving the LF line wide open?
Keith Law: I hate it. That’s the one rule change I truly oppose. We’ve never really told teams where to put their fielders before. What reason do we have to start now?

Dan: If you had to pick the top 5ish things for the Nats to get back into contention, what would you choose?
Keith Law: They need more production from their drafts. I see just about all of their draft picks coming through Wilmington (Cole Henry is one big exception, as he’s been hurt so much but pretty good when healthy) and they are not getting the value they need to be getting, especially from top picks.

Dave: Is it really so wrong to think that “gender identity” is a superstitious, metaphysical concept on par with that of a “soul” and that it shouldn’t replace biological sex in law? And that teaching a child that he or she could have been “born in the wrong body” because of their “gender identity” is abhorrent? This seems like the correct rationalist position to take.
Keith Law: It is wrong, because unlike the soul, there is clear scientific evidence for a gender identity that differs from biological sex. I’m sorry that this bothers you, but facts do not care about your feelings.

David: Keith, What do you see as the ceiling for Endy Rodriguez? Also, what position do you think he plays? I’d say catcher but I know having Davis also in the system may force a move.
Keith Law: Above-average everyday catcher. Nice problem to have there. I do think they have a year to figure it out with Davis missing so much of 2022.

Guest: I think the obvious answer for Pujols’ “very good season” is that it turns out that he’s YOUNGER than reported. Everyone had it all wrong this whole time.
Keith Law: That’s funny.

Aaron C.: I know you generally need multiple looks at a prospect to make an informed analysis. But, when it comes to restaurants, if you have a mediocre-to-bad experience the first time, are you inclined to give them another chance(s)?
Keith Law: I’m not. There’s a place in Philly where I had a terrible experience, and even though it’s consistently ranked among the top 5-10 in the city, I don’t see why I’d go back there and spend money again when there are so many other great places here.

James: what do you think of Rockies Brendan Rodgers so far ?
Keith Law: Disappointed. Just hasn’t been the hitter I expected based on my looks in HS.

Jackie: What, if any, awards vote do you have this year? How is that decided? Why does a vote get an MVP ballot, instead of a Cy Young or Manager of the Year? (Also, my bold prediction/guarantee: Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe, a loyal employee of John Henry, will be giving his third place vote, regardless of ballot, to Rafael Devers.)
Keith Law: I have NL RoY. They’re assigned by the BBWAA. Each chapter gets 2 votes for each of the four awards, and each writer typically gets just one ballot unless the chapter is short of voters.

Michael: Will you quit Twitter when the Musk deal closes?
Keith Law: No. I already use it far less than I did 3-4 years ago because it’s pretty toxic and Twitter does such a terrible job of dealing with misinformation and harassment.

Romorr: RE the Orioles question, do you think they should trade for a starter, and sign one in FA? Or trade for 1, and add a bat. I like Kremer, Rodriguez, and Bradish to start the year, so adding 2 starters sounds good to me.
Keith Law: Bradish isn’t a starter. Kremer is more of a back end guy. I do love Hall but the control isn’t there yet. They really need to add a couple of starters.

Michael (W Hartford CT): Do you think that MVP voters should consider the negative impact of having to use a sixth starter in assessing Ohtani’s candidacy?
Keith Law: If a voter were boosting Ohtani for him filling two roles with one roster spot, I’d say that’s ignoring the fact that they need the sixth starter for him, which negates the roster advantage.

Romorr: 174 K’s for Colton Cowser was a surprise to me. The walks are good, but is there anything to the high amount of K’s going forward?
Keith Law: I think he’s a solid regular, don’t think he’s going to strike out enough to detract from that, and some of the Ks were from the aggressive promotion to AAA to end his first full pro season.

James: Do you think we will see more teams give out big contracts to very young players to try and save long term ? Like the braves have been doing
Keith Law: Yes – teams already are doing that, or trying it. But Atlanta got two guys to accept well below-market deals (Acuña and Albies) where others haven’t had that success.

Kevin: Has Hayden Wesneski’s major league performance raised his status in your/evaluator’s eyes or too small of a sample size?
Keith Law: Small sample size but I think I was fairly positive on him at the time of the trade, too.

Jason: Does Carlos Beltran get in on the first ballot? I always put him in that “solid candidate but not a mortal lock” category, but some segments of baseball fandom seem to hold the Houston cheating scandal against him (though, for the life of me, I couldn’t tell you what he actually did).
Keith Law: I think he was a first ballot guy until the scandal. I will be voting for him.

Dave: What are your thoughts on the Scott Harris hire in Detroit?
Keith Law: Everything I’ve heard about him has been positive. I’d really like to know who else they interviewed, though, as it looks like they just ignored MLB’s guidelines, and I have a hard time seeing how diversity is ever going to improve in the exec suites if teams don’t even give non-white male candidates a chance in the process.

James: Would you rather have Zac Gallen right now than Jazz ?
Keith Law: No. I would take either of them quite gladly.

comish4lif: I view the Bonds home run records as legitimate. That’s my personal choice and decision. The main fact pushing my choice is that MLB and Bud Selig did very little to stop it at the time. Now Bud is in the BBHOF and Barry is not. It would be a lot of work to convince me that MLB, Teams, etc didn’t know about the steroids in the game.
Keith Law: Bud Selig (and Bowie Kuhn) did not deserve their enshrinements. But that process – the crony committees – is an absolute joke.

Doug: Cole Winn had a rough year statistically (awful walk rate). Cause for concern or just tougher competition as a 22 yo in AAA?
Keith Law: Different baseball in AAA (although I think this year the Southern and Texas Leagues used the MLB ball, not in 2021) and that takes some adjustments. Not concerned.

Jason: If you’re the A’s do you keep Langeliers or Murphy behind the plate? Is Murphy worth more or less than the players they got back for Matt Olson?
Keith Law: I’d trade Murphy because of Langeliers – Murphy’s value is through the roof given the years remaining.

Phil: We know KeBryan Hayes defense is strong but seems his bat took a step back this year (maybe health related). Will he hit enough to be an above average 3rd baseman? Is his primary issue launch angle and too many ground balls?
Keith Law: The Pirates’ biggest problem in the last 5 or so years has been non-development of bats. They drafted and acquired a bunch of guys with high contact rates, but then haven’t converted all that contact into quality contact. Hayes is one. Newman is another. It was half of a plan. Now they have their work cut out for them, especially with Hayes who has so much upside if they can get him to hit the ball harder (and why doesn’t he? He’s not small, or weak).

Phil: Any concerns with Riley Greene, seems like he should’ve had more hrs over that many abs? Are you expecting a much better year in year 2?
Keith Law: He’s so young, I’m not worried either.

James: Would you go to a Savannah Bananas game ?
Keith Law: I don’t go to baseball games unless it’s for work. I don’t know a lot of people who go to the office just for fun. I like what I do, but separating work and non-work is important to me.

Chris: Is Joey Wiemer going to develop into anything?
Keith Law: He could, but there’s a lot of risk in the bat given his swing and miss.

comish4lif: Regarding AAA pitchers like Nelson and Jamison for example – those guys don’t just get to go after every hitter. Right?
They frequently have a plan, something to work on, for example, 1st pitch curve to everyone, all fastballs this inning, etc.
Keith Law: That’s less typical for AAA pitchers than low-A or complex league guys. At AAA they should be calling their own games to prepare them for the next level.

Guest: Is there any hope for the Reds in the next 2-3 years? Nice group of rookie SPs if they can stay healthy but hard to have a lot of confidence they’re going to be able to put a true contender together.
Keith Law: Yes, and the system is very strong. Not next year but maybe 2024-25 they’ll be a sleeper.

Mo: How would you upgrade the Cardinals’ offense this off-season without blocking Walker (RF), Gorman (2B?), Herrera (C), and Winn (SS)?
Keith Law: DH and LF seem like good spots (we’ll see about nootbaar, who was good in a short sample).

Greasy Nick: Curious if you’ve read The Sympathizer?
Keith Law: Yes, I’ve read all the Pulitzer winners. Here’s my post on it: http://klaw.me/1ZoZR5T

Matt: Hey Dave, what sex is XXY?
Keith Law: There are a number of conditions that lead to DSDs (differences in sex development) where a person’s genotype and the development of their internal or external sex organs do not match. 5-alpha-reductase deficiency is one. Congenital adrenal hyperplasia is another. Swyer Syndrome is a third. The sex binary is a myth.

Mike: Between Carroll, Lawlar, and PCA, is it fair to be a little less concerned about shoulder injuries to hitters going forward? Those are just three that come to my mind but I feel like there have been more success stories of late with respect to shoulder surgeries
Keith Law: I don’t think we’ve overreacted to those for hitters, but I still think they’re a big concern for pitchers.

Greasy Nick: Do you think Matt Mervis is legit, or is he a textbook AAAA prospect?
Keith Law: He’s another older guy who hit well against younger competition this year, like Vaun Brown, Niko Kavadas, etc. I’ll just say the vast majority of those guys do not pan out. Occasionally one does (Jeff McNeil is the best example of the last decade) but if you’re betting on them as a group, the odds are overwhelmingly against them.

Mike: SSS but Kelenic did look better in his last stint and was whiffing less. Cautious optimism?
Keith Law: Too much value to give on him.

George: Which chapter are you: part of the Philadelphia chapter, or one of the misfit toys in a nebulous “National” chapter?
Keith Law: Philly.

James: Do you prefer hot or iced coffee ?? Dependent on season ?
Keith Law: Hot. Never got into iced coffee. Ice numbs the taste buds, so you end up tasting the notes in coffee much less when it’s cold. That’s the same reason ice cream has so much sugar in it – you need more to counteract the effects of the temperature.

Guy B: What should the Red Sox do with Devers?
Keith Law: Pay the man.

James: Favorite AFL stadium ??
Keith Law: Salt River is the best but I have a soft spot for the old-time charm of Scottsdale.

James: Do you like coffee ice cream ?
Keith Law: Yes if it’s dark and tastes like coffee and not like a fucking single-shot venti latte.

Thomas: If Barry Bonds weren’t a black man with a generally … prickly disposition, would his status as the record holder be viewed differently? If it had been Mark McGwire or Kirby Puckett who had hit 73, would there be so much debate over the legitimacy?
Keith Law: It’s just a gut feeling, but I agree with your take – Bonds is an Angry Black Man and the white gatekeepers don’t like that.

Scott of Lincolnshire: On the shift: could you start seeing infielders more in motion pre-pitch? Like if Schwarber is up, have your SS running towards 2nd base right when pitch is thrown?
Keith Law: I suggested this on the podcast yesterday – it could be weirdly entertaining, like having the one man in motion on offense in the NFL.

Dave: Hi Klaw. Just wondering if you’ve seen or heard about Red Sox prospects Miguel Bleis and Ceddanne Rafaela? Are they guys or GUYS?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen Bleis but saw and wrote about Rafaela multiple times this summer.

Tom2: I see where Roger Maris Jr wants separate HR categories for his dad and Judage and for Bonds, McGwire et al. But I don’t remember seeing him explain how his dad hit 16, 39, then 61 HRs in 3 season. You know, if we’re sure everything was on the up and up back then.
Keith Law: https://www.theonion.com/roger-maris-jr-sets-single-season-record-for-…

A Salty Scientist: I love your yearly column on ‘misses.’ When thinking about these for evaluating your own biases in evaluation, how do you try to determine whether someone hit on their 99th percentile outcome versus a more systematic issue where you had their 50th percentile (and whole distribution) pegged incorrectly?
Keith Law: McNeil is a good example of someone where I didn’t change anything. He’s a 99th percentile guy, with an unusual skill set too. Whereas Bieber is someone who did change my process, as did Goldschmidt, guys who found different paths to success from what I anticipated or considered likely, and thus required me to open my mind more and see those new growth patterns or possibilities.

Heather: Speaking of Kirby Puckett, should he be in the HOF?
Keith Law: I thought he was a borderline case as a player, but I do not believe we should start removing players once enshrined. I wouldn’t have voted for him at the time, though.

Appa Yip Yip: I find it hard to believe, given that we know coaches in the minors were recommending sticky stuff to pitchers in the minors, that there weren’t coaches in the 90s taking guys aside and being like, listen you gotta add some muscle. Developing players is how minor league coaches get promotions. Blaming individuals for systemic issues is a pretty classic play though.
Keith Law: Or coaches in the 60s and 70s saying, hey, these little green pills will give you a little more focus. To say nothing of the 100-plus MLB players with therapeutic use exemptions for ADHD medications that are built around amphetamines. They improve attention, reduce reaction times, and speed executive functioning. Hank Aaron even admitting using them at least once.

Steve: one thing overlooked in all the single-season HR records talk is that almost all of them came in expansion years or within a couple of years of expansion, which is why Judge’s feat this year is all the more impressive and should be held in that regard rather than some mythical “clean” record
Keith Law: Correct – I pointed that out on one of the podcasts yesterday. We don’t have asterisks for expansion years even though we have very strong evidence that those years (and the temporary talent dilution they create) lead to move outlier performances. Maris hit 61 in the Angels/Senators 2 expansion year. McGwire & Sosa had their chase in the Dbacks/Rays expansion year. Even the Marlins/Rockies expansion year led to a huge spike in leaguewide offense.

Kevin: Could Elly De La Cruz or Jackson Chourio turn into Julio/Wander type of prospects?
Keith Law: I think they already are. Chourio is more like Wander, Elly more like Julio (who has tightened his approach a lot since A-ball, which Elly needs to do).

James: You admit you are not a football/NFL fan. (Or at least that used to be the case). Is the trolling of Carson Wentz a bit of sorts, or do you dislike him for some reason?
Keith Law: My wife is a huge Eagles fan, and I saw more than enough of Carson Wentz to be glad to see the team move on from him.
Keith Law: Hurts is a blast to watch.

Freddie: What’s the ceiling for Vaughn Grissom?
Keith Law: Above-average regular, borderline star.

Tony: Where do the White Sox even go from here? Bloated payroll, underperforming players, weak FA class, bad farm so little trade ammo… what a mess!
Keith Law: I think you lean into this core at least one more year and try to contend again in a winnable division in 2023.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week – thank you all so much for the questions & for reading. I’ll head to the AFL later this month and will file a few scouting notebooks from out there, after which I’ll get to free agent rankings. Stay safe!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ October 4, 2022
→ By keith

Ready Set Bet.

Ready Set Bet is a raucous betting game that’s great for a larger group, with up to 9 folks able to play at once (and if you have ten, once can serve as the race’s announcer), from John D. Clair, the designer of Mystic Vale, Cubitos, Dead Reckoning, and Space Base. He’s also a Dodgers fan, if memory serves correctly, but regardless, all of his previous games have been more gamers’ games, while Ready Set Bet is much lighter and is more of a party game at heart – but a surprisingly fun one given how common and boring the betting theme can be.

Ready Set Bet involves four horse races, and players will bet in real time, placing their tokens on the giant central board, as someone rolls the dice to move the nine horses along the race track, betting until three horses pass the red line on the track. At the end of each round, all bets are paid off, and some bets require players to pay a penalty if those bets didn’t come through. After the first three rounds, each player gets their choice of two cards to give them an extra power through the rest of the game or a one-time bonus. After four rounds, the player with the most money wins.

The horses are represented by the numbers 4 through 10, plus two more horses that bear two numbers, 2 and 3 as well as 11 and 12. The dice you roll to move the horses are just two regular six-sided dice, so the horses in the middle (6, 7, and 8) have a natural advantage, but in Ready Set Bet, if you roll any total twice in a row other than 7, that horse moves several extra spaces to try to compensate. I’ve had the 4 horse win because I happened to roll it three times in a row, which moved it nine extra spaces and gave it an insurmountable lead.

There are two major tweaks to the common betting-game formula in RSB, both of which work quite well. The board has betting spaces for every horse to win, places, or show, and each space has a multiplier on it to represent the payout if that bet comes off. The multipliers are higher on horses farther away from the middle numbers of 6-8, but many of those bets also have a small penalty if you bet on them and the horse lets you down, although it’s generally just a dollar or two. There are also some betting spaces on the board beyond individual horses – betting that a horse in a certain color group will win, or betting on one of the “unusual scenario” cards that appear in rounds 2-4 that have conditions like one horse winning by a certain amount or at least four horses not getting past the one-quarter mark.

The other big tweak is that once someone places one of their tokens on a betting space, it’s occupied for the remainder of that race. Each player has a set of betting tokens numbered 2, 3, 4, and 5, and with fewer than seven players each player gets a second 3 token. To place a bet, you take one of those tokens and place it on any betting space that isn’t currently occupied. If your horse comes through, you get the value of your token times the multiplier on the betting space. There’s no benefit to keeping any of your tokens, so the incentive is to place them all before the third horse crosses the red line – roughly two-thirds of the way across the race board – and to do so sooner than other players do, since most of the betting spaces are limited to just one token.

I’ve played Ready Set Bet as a player, but also played it with family and served as the dice-roller and announcer, including my niece and nephew, who are now 10 and 6, respectively … and my nephew ended up winning outright, because he just bet big on any horse that got an early lead, and at one point got an extra 7 token by way of one of those end-of-round bonus cards, placing it on a 7x betting space for a horse that won. That points to the game’s accessibility, and the way that a little luck can balance things out. I didn’t expect to like this game all that much given the premise, but the simplicity of play and the way everyone, with folks aged 6 to 75 when I played with family, got into it ended up selling me on the game after all.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: boardgames

→ October 2, 2022
→ By keith

Music update, September 2022.

Lots of new music in September … but not a lot of great music, I think, even with two extremely strong new albums and a couple of others of note. As always, you can see the Spotify playlist here if you can’t see the widget below.

Kid Kapichi – Super Soaker. Two of my favorite albums of 2022 so far came out in September, including Kid Kapichi’s second album in the last 18 months, Here’s What You Could Have Won, which carries forward the harder-edged rock with Alex Turner-like lyrics but expands their musical palate somewhat, such as adding a guest appearance from Bob Vylan.

The Beths – When You Know You Know. And then there’s The Beths’ third album, Expert in a Dying Field, their best one yet, with more uptempo songs and a more consistent musical throughline over the entire album.

White Lies – Trouble in America. A tremendous track from the bonus edition of As I Try Not to Fall Apart, frankly a better song than several that did make the original LP.

Sports Team – Dig! Another banger from Sports Team, but unusual for them in that the vocals are far more conventional, and clearly play second fiddle to the driving guitar work.

Sprints – Literary Mind. These Dublin punks go a little more pop here, without losing any of their usual intensity, in what I think is their longest song yet.

Courtney Barnett – Words and Guitar. A cover of the Sleater-Kinney song from an upcoming album of covers of the band’s 1997 album Dig Me Out.

John-Allison Weiss – Different Now. This is the first new music from Weiss, who has previously recorded as A.W., since 2017’s “Runaway,” although their indie-pop sound is quite similar even after the five-year hiatus.

Editors – Vibe. Editors just released their seventh album, EBM, their first with Blanck Mass (Benjamin John Power) as a full-time member. The sound across the album is similar to what they’ve shown since their big stylistic shift around 2009-10 to something more electro-noir, with a heavy New Order influence. I also really liked “Karma Climb,” the first single from the record; and “Kiss,” which is great in the sub-4 minute single version but wears out its welcome at 8 minutes on the album.

The Fashion Weak feat. Gruff Rhys – Welsh Words. The debut single from a new Welsh band, with help from Super Furry Animals lead singer Rhys, with hilarious lyrics about songwriting advice from Joan Didion.

Freddie Gibbs feat. Moneybagg Yo – Too Much. Gibbs might be the best active rapper going, certainly in terms of flow and delivery, and just dropped his fifth album, the expansive $oul $old $eparately, on Friday. “Dark Hearted” and “Space Rabbit” are also highlights.

Phoenix feat. Ezra Koenig – Tonight. I like this song despite the intrusion of Vampire Weekend (via Koenig, their twee-voiced lead singer and songwriter).

Jamie xx – KILL DEM. The second new single this year from Jamie xx, whose In Colour was one of the best albums of 2015 and provided two standout tracks of the entire decade in “Loud Places” and “See Saw,” but who hasn’t put out another LP since. His solo work is electronica, but he’s also one of three members of the indie band the xx.

Quicksand – Giving the Past Away. A muscular new track from these post-hardcore icons, left over from the sessions for last year’s album Distant Populations.

Palm – On the Sly. A Philly art-rock outfit that’s been around for a decade, Palm just crossed my radar this month with this new track reminiscent of some of Battles’ better work.

WITCH – Waile. WITCH are legends of Zamrock, a musical style from the sub-Saharan country of Zambia that emerged in the 1970s, and were active from 1972-1984, by the end of which they’d moved away from rock and towards disco. This is a new recording of a song they played live in their heyday but never committed to wax. With the crossover success of Mdou Moctar, I could see WITCH (which stands for We Intend to Cause Havoc!) finding a new audience as they continue to tour.

Wheel – Blood Drinker. I’m a big fan of this Finnish prog-metal outfit, whether it’s their ten-minute, multi-section tracks or tighter radio-friendly ones like this one, primarily because of their guitarwork, both the sound itself and the intricacy of some of their guitar lines. This is the advance single from their upcoming EP Rumination, which follows last year’s full-length album Resident Human.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2022 in music, alternative, hip-hop, Music, progressive metal, rap

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