keith — Page 114

→ July 21, 2018
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 7/21/21.

For Insiders this week, I updated my ranking of the top 50 prospects in the minors and posted analyses of the Manny Machado trade and the Brad Hand/Francisco Mejia trade. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

My next game review for Paste will go up next week; this week I reviewed the app version of Istanbul, a great strategic game of pathfinding and set collection, here on the dish.

I’ll be at the Silver Unicorn Bookstore in Acton, Massachusetts, on July 28th at 1 pm to talk Smart Baseball and sign copies.

And now, the links…

Before I hit the longreads, I want to highlight this editorial from The Daily Barometer, a student-run newspaper at Oregon State, which states what probably should have been obvious all along: “OSU supporters who cheered Luke Heimlich have embarrassed the entire community.” It placed winning baseball games over believing the words of a sexual assault victim and over the impact of the trauma that Heimlich caused. I wish this had run a few months ago, but I am proud to see OSU students put this message out there themselves, knowing the backlash they’ll likely receive for doing so.
OK, longreads: Popula’s Maria Bustillos has the last great interview with Anthony Bourdain, a wide-ranging piece that runs over 10,000 words. Their argument over Obama’s tenure and legacy is outstanding. There are so many wonderful quotes in here, but I’ll pick just one: “We live in a world where we cannot, if you’re running for political office, you cannot admit to speaking a second language, extensive travel, or a familiarity with arugula.” Maybe that’s why our dear leader nicknamed the North Korean dictator “Rocket Man?”
There will be no Nobel Prize in Literature this year in the wake of a scandal involving a serial sexual abuser married to an Academy member, where the two of them also misused Academy funds. Eighteen women spoke about against him, two accusing him of rape. Resignations of other members in protest left the Academy without a quorum for its vote on the candidates for this year’s honor. The story is one of men protecting men, but also symptomatic of the rot of small institutions that operate without oversight.
You’ve probably seen this already, but just in case: Mina Kimes spoke at length to Aly Raisman about the gymnast’s vault to prominence as a forceful advocate for sexual assault victims and for change in the corrupt hierarchy of U.S.A. gymnastics.
Anti-wolf activists ruined the career of a tenured professor who researched the canines’ habits and pushed for conservation efforts, including extorting his employer, Washington State, by threatening to withhold state funding for a new medical school on campus.
George Will’s op ed’s title sums up its message: “This sad, embarrassing wreck of a man” who is now our President.
The Guardian also ran an excerpt from Michiko Kakutani’s forthcoming book The Death of Truth, in which she argues that ‘truth decay’ and alternative facts gave us Trump and are eroding our democracy.
I enjoyed the Atlantic‘s piece calling this the “moment of truth” for Republicans as if there was a damned chance in hell of any of them stepping out of line to criticize their dear leader.
And why would they, when the Supreme Court nominee they’re about to confirm promises to roll back voting rights sixty years.
Actually, one Republican found a backbone here: Will Hurd, a Republican House member from Texas, wrote a searing op ed for the New York Times that Russia is manipulating the President, calling for Congress to act to protect our interests.
Another Republican Congressman broke with Administration on the issue of net neutrality, as Colorado’s Mike Coffman signed a petition to force a vote on legislation to reverse the FCC’s giant gift to the telecom industry.
Meanwhile, current Minnesota Congressman Jason Lewis said African-Americans have a “cultural” problem and an “entitlement mentality” on a previous radio show where he pushed the idea of a race war.
The Treasury will no longer collect information on large donations to 501(c) nonprofits, meaning ‘dark’ money can flow unimpeded to political groups. “The news was well-received among conservative groups and congressional Republicans,” whom I’m sure have nothing at all they’d like to hide now that they can do so without fear of disclosure.
There’s scant good news on the rationalist front, but some scientists running for office have fared well in elections this year. Hiral Tipirneni nearly won a special election in a crimson-red district in Arizona this spring, and she is running for the same seat again in November.
A new investigative paper published in JAMA found that the poor quality of sleep received by hospital patients slows their healing, so stop waking them up for routine tests that might not be necessary for all patients.
Should lab-grown meat be labelled as meat? It’s biochemically identical to meat that came from an animal’s carcass, but is cultured and grown in a lab, obviating some ethical and environmental concerns. Of course, the meat manufacturing and processing industries are trying an end run around the technology, hoping to ban those products from calling themselves ‘meat,’ rather than, you know, telling consumers what the product is and letting the market decide.
Wild optimism over CRISPR-based therapy has been slapped with several large charges on its latest reality bill, including potential long-term DNA damage to patients, some of which could lead to cancer.
CNN got played by a pseudoscience-pushing conspiracy theorist who claimed on air that cell phones cause cancer – but didn’t disclose his conflict of interest, working for a company that sells equipment to “protect” people from such radiation.
An arcane type of numbers called octonions (beyond real and complex numbers) may provide the unifying math behind the Standard Model of Physics.
No one can quite explain those $2000-plus used book prices on amazon, charged by third-party sellers with murky identities.
Eritrea and Ethiopia have signed a peace deal promising to end their pointless, twenty-year border war, giving hope that democracy may finally come to Eritrea, Africa’s last true one-party state.
Every time I bring up offensive team nicknames like those of the baseball teams in Cleveland or Atlanta or the football team in Washington, some chud shows up with a “What about Notre Dame?” Here’s a well-written editorial from Irish news site The Journal that explains why the analogy isn’t just wrong, but ignorant of history.
r/Dodgers has solved the mystery of Kiké Hernandez’s (tight) pants.
Alan Sepinwall reviewed Sacha Baron Cohen’s new show and says it’s about 15 years out of date with its conceit of trying to shock the audience by what victims of his pranks will say or do.
Your brain is always looking for problems to solve, so when problems become a bit scarce, it can try to find problems where there are none.
Eagle-Gryphon published a Kickstarter for Escape Plan, a new game from Vital Lacerda, known for overlong, complex games like Lisboa.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: board games, links, math, metoo, nobel prize, racism, science, stick to baseball

→ July 20, 2018
→ By keith

I get a daily email from a site called Bookbub that highlights ebooks on sale each day, slightly tailored to my tastes by books or authors I’ve indicated I like; I probably buy 20-25 books a year that way, sometimes picking up titles I wouldn’t have heard of otherwise. One of those was Anna Kavan’s final novel, Ice published shortly before her death in 1967, a book and author with which I was completely unfamiliar until I saw the cover in one of those daily emails and thought it sounded interesting enough to pick up (and, at maybe 150 pages total, a small investment to make). It is interesting … and absolutely one of the weirdest things I’ve ever read, defying all conventions of narrative in how it treats characters, time, or even physical reality, giving the reader (well, this reader) the sense of watching or reading someone else’s dream.

Ice is told from the perspective of an unnamed man who is following and possibly trying to protect a frail young woman, also unnamed, in a post-apocalyptic world of nuclear winter, where an ice shelf is pushing civilization back towards the equator. The girl is often with a character called the Warden, who by turns seems to be her lover, her captor, or her protector. But the narrative itself is far from straightforward; the girl is lost, injured, or killed multiple times in the story, only to reappear in the next chapter as if those things never happened. The narrator himself becomes increasingly incoherent as the book progresses, and begins to question his own sanity as the story moves along, and what exactly his feelings are for this girl, who also seems less than happy to be ‘rescued’ by him at several points in the book. Kavan herself called the story a fable, but even that fails to quite prepare the reader for what is now known as slipstream literature, which mimics the jarring, nonlinear nature of dreams or subconscious thought; it’s easier to follow than James Joyce’s attempts to write as the brain thinks, or subsequent authors who’ve done the same (like Eimear McBride), but still brings the sense of being on a rollercoaster in the dark, where you can’t anticipate the turns, drops, or the end of the ride.

Part of what makes Ice simultaneously compelling and offputting is that Kavan never tries to distinguish between what’s real and what is a delusion, dream, or hallucination of the narrator; the prose simply slips from the realistic to the bizarre without any notice to tell you that things have changed or that we’re in the narrator’s head. It’s more than just an unreliable narrator – the narrator here doesn’t seem to know he’s unreliable, and he jumps time and place in dizzying fashion. You have to enjoy that kind of writing to appreciate Ice, and if it were twice the length I would have found it frustrating, but at close to novella size it becomes a sort of thrill ride through a fever dream.

Kavan died mere months after the book’s publication in the UK and a week before its publication in the U.S., so the years of conversation and interpretation that might have followed its release never happened – and the book itself may have come to greater attention because she’d died. There’s an obvious Cold War theme to the story and the setting, both the post-nuclear aspect and the analogy of a frozen world to a war described by temperature, but more interesting to me is the exploration of woman’s agency through the eyes of a man who sees himself as her white knight but may in fact be operating entirely against her wishes. The story starts out in traditional enough fashion, with the Warden the antagonist who is threatening the girl with imprisonment, rape, or death, but it’s never even clear that the narrator and the Warden are on opposing sides, or what the girl, never named and often on the run, actually wants at any point in the book. Her story is actually the pivotal one, yet Kavan gives us barely any details on the girl herself, which seems like a perfect metaphor for the invisible women throughout human history who’ve been ignored by the men who wrote the books.

Next up: I’m reading John Wray’s 2016 novel The Lost Time Accidents.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: british literature, dystopian, feminist literature, science fiction, slipstream, transgressive novels

→ July 19, 2018
→ By keith

Klawchat 7/19/18

Starting at 1 pm ET. New Insider posts: my analysis of the Manny Machado trade, the updated top 50 prospects ranking, and my analysis of the Brad Hand/Francisco Mejia trade.

Keith Law: Take the weakest thing in you, and then beat the bastards with it. Klawchat.

Seath: you talked how the Orioles waited too long to trade Manny. What non rental player(s) do you think teams should trade now in order to maximize values
Keith Law: Chris Archer particularly comes to mind. Michael Fulmer, but that’s less urgent.

Adam: Thoughts on William Contreras? Seems to be having a really good year.
Keith Law: Yep, he’s not far off from that top tier of prospects – whether that’s top 75 or top 100 or top 120 or so, I’m not sure yet.

Hinkie: You have Sixto and JoJo as the Phillies top two pitching prospects. How close is Adonis Medina (assuming he’s their #3 pitching prospect) to Romero ?
Keith Law: Suarez > Medina for me. It’s a really good system. Kilome seemed like their top pitching prospect a few years ago and now he’s … 5th? 6th?

Craig: Where was Kyle Tucker before his promotion? And I’m guessing Yordan was left off due to position concerns?
Keith Law: I didn’t rank promoted guys. Mejia was on and then off and then on again, but he was the only one. Yordan has no position that I can see, and having seen him up close a few times, if he’s really 21 years old, he doesn’t have the physique or projection we typically ascribe to a player of 21.

Nate : KLaw, sure you’ll get a bunch of questions about the Manny & Hand deals, wondering if Kyle Lewis has re-gained enough value to consider top 100 and if Burnes is still top 100? Thanks
Keith Law: Burnes was top 20 before the season, I think, but he was also called up before the list. Lewis is not top 100 until he shows he can play regularly and can still handle an OF corner. That knee injury has been a motherforker.

Michael: Could you vote for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez?
Keith Law: No, because I’m not in her district.

Michael: Do you think the number of draftees who didn’t sign this year is an outlier or the start of a new trend?
Keith Law: Outlier.

Steve: Wander Franco, a young Lindor at the plate? Better?
Keith Law: Completely different players.

Andy: Obviously there is no way to know for sure if it would have been offered, but in the offseason could Baltimore have gotten Andujar and Sheffield?
Keith Law: I don’t think there were any serious talks around Machado this winter. The Orioles have so many people involved in any such decision that even when Duquette knows what the right thing to do is, he has to wait for everyone else to agree before he can do it. I don’t think Sheffield/Andujar would have been an unreasonable request.

Joe: As an Orioles fan, should I be worried about Chance Sisco? He has seemed to be overmatched, plus it looks like he doesn’t have the backing of the coaching staff.
Keith Law: The coaching staff issue can be fixed. I firmly believe in the axiom that catchers develop later and I’m not worried about him.

Hinkie: Please rank these soon to be free agent LHSP’s: Drew Pomerantz, Patrick Corbin, Yusei Kikuchi.
Keith Law: Never seen Kikuchi, sorry.

J: Do you trade DeGrom now and what kind of package could the Mets get in return? Also, do Wheeler or Matz have enough value to return a top prospect?
Keith Law: Oh, duh, he should have been in my first answer along with Archer. Sorry, been a busy morning. I’d explore trades for all three and, yes, for Thor too. See what the market offers and go from there. I imagine Wheeler or Matz would have appeal as starters who might be decent long guys in October too.

OgieOgilthorpe: I’m curious as to your thoughts on errors as a valid part of defensive stats. The vagaries of errors and official scorers was quite evident in the ASG… Yellich mis-plays a ball to OF (lights?) for a base hit, and Votto reaches over the dugout fence in out-of-play territory. Error!
Keith Law: Errors suck and I don’t look at them.

Andy: I know the comparables on BBref are a pretty blunt tool, but Yadier’s comps include Tim McCarver, Sherm Lollar, Jason Kendall, AJ Pierzynski and Terry Steinbach. Definitely good catchers all, but none of them screams HOF. Especially since so much of his case resides on defensive WAR, which is probably wildly inaccurate in all directions for catchers, how is it even controversial that he isn’t a HOFer?
Keith Law: His case really relies on framing, which 1) I don’t believe is a basis for HoF induction, and 2) wasn’t even a well-measured thing when the Yadi-for-HoF stuff started, so we’re just retconning it into his dossier now. He’s a good player. He should be in the Cardinals Hall of Fame. I can’t see any way I vote for him for the MLB Hall of Fame.

Hinkie: What’s up with Logan Davidson ? He didn’t make the USA collegiate team this summer and now he is struggling on the Cape. Is he more of a top 10 pick in the 2019 draft, a later first rounder, or has he moved out of the top round ?
Keith Law: He wasn’t invited to the USA team – not the same as not making it. I think he’s a potential top 10 pick.

Justin : Any Red Sox remotely close to your top 50? What are the chances this is the worst farm system in baseball by the offseason?
Keith Law: Seattle probably has that worst farm system thing on lockdown. KC is worse too. Boston may not be bottom five. Their problem is more that the best guys are hurt, not that their best guys aren’t good.

A big dumb idiot: I know you were high on Sean Reid-Foley for a while, and the superficial stats are starting to look pretty good in Buffalo. Have you heard anything about his recent performance?
Keith Law: I saw him this year. Think he’s probably a RP in the end.

Adam D.: Any chance for Joey Bart of Heliot Ramos to crack the top-50 next year?
Keith Law: It seems very unlikely to me, given Bart’s hit tool, and how far away Ramos seems to be.

Blackburn: After seeing what elite relievers with control have fetched in trades the last few years. What would Felipe Vazquez fetch back in a trade?
Keith Law: I may never get used to him not being Felipe Rivero (that’s my fault, not his). I would have to think he’d be in line for the Andrew Miller sort of return – you get 3 years of him and acquire him at his peak.

PhillyJake: Did the Os do better over all than the compensatory pick they’d have received for Manny rejecting the QO at the end of the season?
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely.

Grant : I saw Griffin Canning or Brandon Marsh weren’t on your top 50 or the “considered” part of the article also. What range are they in for you?
Keith Law: Marsh was top 100 before the season, no reason he wouldn’t be again. Canning is a top 100 consideration but his durability is still a question.

Guest: How close is Mejia to the big leagues? With Hedges being an elite defender and SD having so many OFs, do the Padres move him to 3B?
Keith Law: Mejia is big league ready, and have you seen Hedges’ offensive performance?

Heal Nuntingon: Is Edgar Santana enough to get the Braves to come off of one of their young starters (Fried, Allard, Gohara)?
Keith Law: For a nice middle reliever? I doubt it. San Diego had to essentially do a two-for-one to get a top-level prospect for Hand.

Weinshie: Have you had a look at Alex Kirilloff yet? If so, your thoughts.
Keith Law: Yes. He’s on the top 50 today, linked up top.

Justin: Thoughts on Mitch Keller and Ke’Bryan Hayes?
Keith Law: Also both in the top 50 today, linked up top.

Jesse B: What did Jesus Sanchez do or not do to slip out of the top 50?
Keith Law: It doesn’t really work that way – this isn’t a moving list. He’s a good prospect, but there are 50 better ones right now in my opinion, guys with more bat or more defensive or positional value.

The Big Enchilada: Joey Gallo appears to have regressed this year — is he just another Mark Reynolds type, or do you think he’ll improve going forward compared to what he’s done this year?
Keith Law: I think he has the potential to improve, but it will take a serious effort from him and the coaching staff to get him to further tighten his command of the strike zone. Someone asked on Twitter why Seuly Matias wasn’t on the top 50 or honorable mentions – and he wasn’t even close, FWIW – and the short answer is that his best case scenario right now is what Joey Gallo is today.

Chris: Do you still see Corbin Burnes as a solid SP, mid rotation or better? He has looked solid out of the bullpen this year, but it seems like the Brewers don’t really need him as a SP, especially with Jimmy Nelson coming back.
Keith Law: Solid SP, yes, if they need him there. Eventually they will.

Josh: Obviously a tertiary part of the trade, but at a glance Zach Pop seems like an intriguing bullpen guy. Does he have a closer ceiling?
Keith Law: No. Middle guy. I detailed it in the writeup on the trade.

myslas: I checked up on Miguel Amaya because he was starting in the Futures game and was surprised to see he has 12 HR with a .343 OBP in A-ball as a 19 year old. Is this a fluke or is this a breakout and he’s now a top 3 prospect in Cubs system?
Keith Law: He is their #1 prospect right now. Alzolay got hurt, Ademan has been and looked terrible.

Minty: Since it’s not a fantasy list, I loved the move for your #1 prospect while praising Vlad as well. When do you see Tatis as being ready? Watching Hosmer is rough.
Keith Law: Tatis could debut in September, but won’t because of service time/40-man considerations. I think he’s up by this time next year.

Joe: Keith, I didn’t see an Alex Well write up in your post about the Futures Game. Thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Command guy, I believe 89-91 that day, a little less in longer outings, but can really pitch with some deception.

J.P.: Are Mejia’s chances of sticking at catcher more or less now?
Keith Law: They haven’t changed. Your ability is not a function of the team that employs you.

Justin : The Josh Hader thing blows my mind. Don’t these guys have handlers/publicists who check their Twitter history for hate like this?
Keith Law: This should be every agent’s job. Hell, hire an intern to search your players’ social media histories. Hader is hardly the first – Ryan Rolison had some tweet hoping Obama would be assassinated from 2012, for example. As an agent or adviser, you should grill your clients on social media history, and then doubt whatever they tell you and search anyway.

Garrett: How big of a difference is there between your top prospects? Like is Mejia a lot better than someone like Adell? And is Adell a lot better than someone like Kiriloff?
Keith Law: I’m not sure how to give a precise answer to that. Is prospect 5 a lot better than prospect 10? Yes. How much? Not sure. Every prospect there has a range of potential outcomes, so if Prospect 10 hits his best case scenario while prospect 5 hits his median outcome, then prospect 10 will end up better, but that doesn’t mean the ranking was necessarily wrong.

Adam: Seems like the Braves have waited too long to shop Inciarte. Would he still have some value on his current deal given his abilities defensively?
Keith Law: Remember when I got pilloried by Atlanta fans for suggesting that they shop Inciarte? That was fun. Still has two years of control left on that deal, so I think there’s value, maybe two decent prospects’ worth. Would be sensible for Atlanta to do that rather than dump prospects for a playoff push this year.

Belieber: How close was the Biebs to the top 50? In the top 100?
Keith Law: Sorry to throw cold water on you this one time, but he’s not near to top 100 kind of company.

j: Any thoughts on Yankees’ Everson Pereira?
Keith Law: Just young. Can you be a pre-prospect? That’s what he is.

Sonny: RE Hader- when Twitter reacts so vehemently to a 17 year olds tweets from 7 years ago, doesn’t it lower the ceiling of our outrage for when someone is actually racist? The Twitter screaming seems pretty extreme, considering there are people out there being murdered and beaten for their race.
Keith Law: I’m not sure why the fact that people are being beaten and murdered for their race, ethnic origin (look up Muhammad Abu Marzouk), religion, orientation, etc. matters to this discussion; it seems whataboutist to me. And Hader’s tweets weren’t stupid – it’s not like he tweeted “Man, I love Nickelback!” They were offensive, across the board, to multiple groups. It’s reasonable to call that person to account for his words.

Matt : Keith, thoughts on Yankees pitching prospect Trevor Stephan? Is he a starter or reliever long-term?
Keith Law: Reliever. Good one, but every scout i know who’s seen him says reliever.

Nick: How close was Peter Alonso to making the list?
Keith Law: There was only one player on the list who profiles as either a 1b or a DH, and that guy has an 80 hit tool.

Henry: Who are some of the Top 2019 College guys?
Keith Law: Davidson for sure. Stinson at Duke, but he’s a reliever long-term. Wilson at NC State. Langeliers at Baylor; he’s a monster. Would like to see Lodolo at TCU again, as he’s come along well since HS. It’s actually a bad college crop, though. I expect a HS heavy class.

BigSauce: no mention of Autsin Riley in your latest top 50…was it the lack of PA due to injury?
Keith Law: Wasn’t on my top 100 preseason either.

Bobby Higginson: Isaac Padares a top 5 prospect in the Tiger system right now?
Keith Law: Yes, I’d say so, even with concerns about him.

Mac: Any thoughts on Danny Jansen? Is his bat legit?
Keith Law: I think he’s going to hit. Offensive catcher, just adequate behind the dish.

Greg: How much more value do you think the Orioles would have gotten for Manny if they had traded him this offseason, being that he was coming off a sub-par season? After 2016 was clearly the time to trade him and Britton but would have been tough for fans to swallow coming off the Wild Card.
Keith Law: The subpar season would have had no effect. Nobody I know thought he was somehow worse, especially since he raked in the second half as he had before.

Jason: are you encouraged by corey ray’s power surege?
Keith Law: Not really – heard from scouts he’s selling out so much for power that they think it’s impacting the hit tool.

Nicky: Keith – what do you see as a projection for Justin Dunn? Saw he almost made your top 50 list. Any comps come to mind? Love the work man thank you!
Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter. Maybe more once he has a real LF behind him.

Ryan: Was Alex Reyes no longer eligible or were his injuries simply too significant a concern to warrant placing him in your top 50?
Keith Law: Eligible, not considered. Hard to forecast him as a starter right now given how little he’s pitched. Shoulder, then elbow, and now this.

Brian: Both Mickey Moniak and Adam Haseley seem to have turned their seasons around. Haseley has been consistently hitting for a few months and Moniak has 37 games of .776 OPS in spite of having his wisdom teeth out. Have you gotten any more positive reports on them?
Keith Law: I have only gotten negative reports on both guys. And I’m not sure the wisdom teeth thing is really an issue.

Matt: Thoughts on Joey Bart so far? Hitting for a high average and showing his power.
Keith Law: In short-season ball, for which he’s quite old. And he’s struck out like a quarter of the time, which we knew coming in was an issue.

Adam: Would Allard, Fried, and Pache be enough to get in the game for Degrom? Too much?
Keith Law: I would ask if someone was holding Anthopoulos at gunpoint.

Nicky: What kind of slash line do you see from Pete Alonso in his prime years? Is his defense really that atrocious? Thanks man
Keith Law: Did you see him at the Futures Game? Atrocious is unfair, but he’s not a good defender at 1b.

Chad: In your last chat you said Taylor Tramell was “definitely not” a Top 25 prospect, but he snuck in at #25. Just a reaction to the futures game or industry consensus that he’s improving?
Keith Law: Industry consensus, and also seeing him at the Futures Game helped, because a criticism I had heard from multiple scouts turned out to be unfounded (or just out of date). His swing looked great in BP and in the game.

Guest: Thoughts on Jorge Guzman…can he stick as a #2 or #3 starter or is he destined for the pen
Keith Law: Reliever all the way.

Justin : What has been the best/funniest interaction with a reader during your Smart Baseball tour?
Keith Law: A couple came up to me on Saturday at Politics & Prose in DC, but it was clear he was the fan and she was just hanging out. He gave me his book to sign, we chatted, and as they’re walking away, she turns to me and says, “I don’t know baseball, but I think you’re funny.”
Keith Law: Also, I think I told the story last year of showing up in Atlanta to be greeted by the best friend of my late uncle. I hadn’t seen John in probably 20+ years, and he drove in a good distance to come see me and have me sign his copy. Nothing will beat that.

Joe: Have you gotten out to see DL Hall yet? Seems to be making huge strides this year.
Keith Law: No but i want to. Huge strides, or just being what he was? Really didn’t pitch much last summer, but reports match what I heard from last spring – it’s three pitches, command is lacking, mid-rotation kind of upside, very high floor because he’s LH and can get both sides out.

mike sixel: Kyle Gibson on that list of guys to trade now, rather than wait? Or can the Twins compete next year?
Keith Law: I think they think they can compete next year, so perhaps not.

Keys: Why do you think Baseball Twitter skews so far left on the political scale?
Keith Law: Baseball Twitter tends to be strongly rationalist. The online baseball community in general is more accepting of progressive ideas around the sport and more demanding of evidence in debates or discussions. Whether that is “far left” probably depends how far in the anti-science/anti-intellectual tank you have sunk.

Justin : I know you don’t “HATE” any team per se, but which team do you like the least?
Keith Law: Yours.

Brian: Hi Keith, love your work. I know you were a little lower on Joey Bart than some others, but do you currently have in your top 100?
Keith Law: I didn’t rank out 100 guys, but based on his predraft ranking and where those guys end up on my top 100s six months later, I’d say yes.

PhillyJake: There’s been a lot made in the Pittsburgh press about the Pirates pitcher’s reliance on the fast ball. The focus has been on Cole and Morton in Houston, about how they’re doing better throwing more breaking pitches and fewer fastballs. Have you any thoughts on this?
Keith Law: That’s true across baseball, right? The best teams are having their pitchers work more with offspeed stuff, contrary to maybe a century of pitching wisdom that you must work off or establish the fastball first, and every other pitch comes second.

Brian: Read an interesting positive report on Buddy Reed after some people saw him at the Futures game (mainly in BP). Has he evolved at all in a surprising way or is projection still the same?
Keith Law: Swing is a bit better. Defense was always plus. He’s old for high-A and that’s a good place to hit, so I need to see him produce in double-A to buy into the idea that he’s different.

Frank: Why did a reliever bring back a much better prospect in return as opposed to a starting 3B/SS who’s having the best year of his career in the bigs?
Keith Law: Two relievers, both with years of control remaining. Machado is a straight rental.

Marc (DC): Wheeler for Keibert Ruiz, who says no.
Keith Law: Dodgers laugh at that. Friedman/Zaidi rarely trade prospects of any significance. That they traded Diaz makes me wonder if there’s something we don’t know about the player.

Rick C: Do you not have any concern over Pache’s plate discipline?
Keith Law: Not in the least. He’s 19 in high-A.

Vin: If you were running the Giants, what would you do with Bumgarner? I can’t imagine they’d trade him, but it doesn’t seem like paying him $200 mil + on a so-so team is a good idea.
Keith Law: I would trade him. I don’t see any way they do.

Jon: re: Ocasio-Cortez. But I read on Twitter that you live in Brooklyn
Keith Law: Gentrified Brooklyn. All my utensils are hipsterling silver.

Jeffrey Lebowski: Can teams be/stay successful if they seem really bad at early-round drafting but are fairly dominant in the Latin American market? The city of Philadelphia awaits your answer with baited breath.
Keith Law: Yes. Look at my top 50 today: first five guys were all July 2nd signings.

Kirk: If Vlad Jr were at first base and not third, would he have been #1? Or would the less skilled position keep him at #2?
Keith Law: He can’t play third. There’s zero chance of that, between his footwork and his size already. The ranking reflects the probability that he’s a 1b or a DH, but he’s not anything else.

Harry: Will you be attending tomorrow’s Under Armour game?
Keith Law: I will indeed.

Joe: Keith, is there any scouting notes you can provide on the high school hitters from their home run derby over the weekend?
Keith Law: You can’t scout a HR derby. Especially not with the silly balls they were using.

Dan: The All-Star game was a perfect example, I think, of what baseball is becoming: long stretches of K’s & BB’s followed by a HR here and there and a couple scattered hits. The game feels way more boring than it has been at anytime in my life. Do you think this is true and what are some remedies?
Keith Law: I’m a broken record on this but raise the bottom of the strike zone.

Nick: Hi Keith. In regards to Bichette: Are you hesitant to think he stays at SS due to his arm or range? If it’s his range, do you think it’s becoming less important with all the shifting and defensive alignments? I mean we are in the new age of positionless baseball.
Keith Law: Still have to have range. You can shift guys but that doesn’t mean every ball is hit right at them.

John: The new Chvrches album doesn’t exactly break any new ground and the lyrics aren’t quite up to par with the last couple, but Graffiti slaps as much as any song of theirs, no?
Keith Law: No, I hated the record.

Jon: Do you ever mistakenly say would when you mean “wouldn’t”?
Keith Law: I meant to say that Luis Severino wouldn’t be a reliever.

wickethewok: Thoughts on the Trogdor Kickstarter? I watched the gameplay video, but I’m not sure if it would end up on the pile of games that are more fun in theory than practice.
Keith Law: I’ll check out the demo at Gen Con. It’s probably a great theme on a trivial game, but I’ll try it.

Rick C: On a scale of 1-10, how big of a blunder was it for the Braves to not sign Stewart?
Keith Law: Unless you know what they found in his physical, you can’t even ask that question, let alone answer it.

Dane Dunning: Was I close to the top 50? I’m a very high floor starter if you ask me.
Keith Law: You’re also out for the year with a partially torn elbow ligament that might still end up requiring surgery.

Nick: I know it’s only 100 AB’s in the GCL, but do you have any early reports on Ronny Mauricio?
Keith Law: on the tools, yes, very positive, higher upside guy than Gimenez, who is obviously more advanced but doesn’t project to impact like Mauricio might.

Oscar: Why are so many people so quick to jump to “he was a kid and said something stupid” defense for Hader? When I was teenager, I didn’t come anywhere NEAR saying something as stupid or offensive as he did (and I was a really stupid kid). And he did it multiple times for Pete’s sake.
Keith Law: Right. Stupid is “Nickelback is the best band ever!” It’s not … that stuff Hader said. That’s much worse than merely stupid. These are opinions that can change, and I will gladly accept that he may no longer be that person, but he left all that shit up on his feed for anyone to find, too.

Dan: Maybe I don’t fully understand the projected/anticipated value, but it seems like the Orioles are getting amazing value for 2 months of Machado. Even if Diaz is just an average regular, he alone will far exceed the WAR of 2 months of Machado, no?
Keith Law: If he’s an average regular, sure. There’s always a chance he’s less than that. And the point is not a WAR to WAR comparison, but whether they maximized what the market would pay. Getting back more WAR than you traded does not mean you got the most value back you could have.

Jon: Do you think Manfred realized how jerk-ish he sounded when calling Trout out for not being cooperative in marketing?
Keith Law: I absolutely, firmly believe he did not realize it until after the fact. I disagree with the Commissioner on many things. I do not think he is a jerk, or means to sound like one.
Keith Law: Bud, on the other hand … i had my doubts.

Mike F: Love your writing and I think I just missed you at the Futures Game. I realize Nate Lowe was too old for High A but he seems to be putting up the same big numbers in AA. Any chance he is a emerging as a sleeper prospect?
Keith Law: More like a second-tier guy, has to hit at every level to prove it given his age and position, but I don’t see any reason he can’t/won’t at least produce enough to be a big leaguer.

Mark: What was your favorite dining experience while visiting Italy ?
Keith Law: The pinsa, a different type of pizza from the Lazio region, that I ate with my cousins at Pinsotto in Nervi, which is a neighborhood at the eastern end of Genoa.

Enrique: Thoughts on Elehuris Montero? He someone you think makes your top 100 next season?
Keith Law: Doubt that. Bat over glove right now, not sure where he plays. A prospect, though. Top 100 is still fairly selective.

EL: Could the Giants have a top-10 farm in a year or two?
Keith Law: Sure, if they trade Bumgarner and Posey.

Brian: What would be your guess on the trade value of Hedges? Could you bring back a top 100 prospect for him just based on his defense?
Keith Law: I can’t imagine that at all.

Scott: I cant believe I am going to make this argument but here it goes. With a future outfield of Eaton, Robles, Soto, and Taylor are the Nats better off not throwing $300M-$400M at Harper if that means they will strapped for cash and will not be able to re-sign key assets like Rendon and his BFF Turner down the line. If I had the choice between Rendon, Turner, and maybe another solid SP vs Harper I think I would choose the former. Should the front office view it this way?
Keith Law: Yes, I think that’s quite reasonable, and I’m a huge believer in Harper and think he’s going to be worth $300MM+. He just doesn’t line up with the Nats’ needs.

Jeff: Adley Rutschman as an early 1-1 possibility next year or at least top 5?
Keith Law: I couldn’t say never, not with Bart going 2, but to me that is overly aggressive.

Andrew: Do you see Rockies parting with a Rodgers, McMahon, or Lambert at this deadline?
Keith Law: No to Rodgers or Lambert. The way they’ve handled McMahon makes me think they would part with him – but I have zero inside info on that.

Tom: Any market for Britton? He seems to have gained some velocity and regained his sink in his last few appearances.
Keith Law: Oh there’s a market – the question is whether the return will be acceptable. I’d still acquire him, but I’m not paying a Gleyber-plus price.

Jim: you’ve probably been asked this before so I’m sorry if I’m repeating it but do you see Brendan McKay sticking as a 2 way player or will/should he commit to one?
Keith Law: It’s actually in the top 50 today – I answered that exact question.

Beau: Is Huddson Potts for real? He’s putting up really strong numbers for a 19 yr old in High A.
Keith Law: He’s a prospect, was one before the season too. Still very young, looks like he’s going to stay at third too.

Jake: Anyone in the top 50 that you hadn’t heard of two years ago?
Keith Law: Two years ago Wander Franco was 15. So the only way I could say I’d heard of him is that he has two brothers also named Wander Franco.

Jack: Is Adam Haseley the second best position player prospect that the Phillies have? (Behind Bohm)
Keith Law: Ortiz. Ortiz might actually be better than Bohm, but Bohm is playing third for now and I’ll give him a nod because he might stay there, while Ortiz is in LF but is going to be a 1b.
Keith Law: I really like Muzziotti too. He can really hit, and he can run. Not very disciplined at the plate, but for now, while he can hit everything, it’s OK.

KLaws over Replacement : Are more teams opting for quantity over quality regarding prospects in trades? It seems like it with machado trade being the latest example but it might just be confirmation bias since I’m still bitter the yankees didnt get Cole
Keith Law: If you can’t get quality, you go for quantity. The Orioles did not do badly here. I can’t emphasize that enough – I am not saying they fared poorly, or got robbed, or fucked up. That’s not right. I’m saying that the return would likely have been much higher in the offseason.

Rob: Mejia at 3b… just curious… 3b has been a black hole for years for the Padres. Could he be slightly below average there defensively?
Keith Law: I’m not sure he’ll have the footwork or agility for it.

Marxist Lennonist: How would you compare the package the Dodgers gave up for Machado to the package the Dodgers gave up for Darvish last year? Machado is a much better player than Darvish, but the Dodgers didn’t seem to give up enough more talent to account for the difference.
Keith Law: Oh yeah, this is way more.
Keith Law: for Machado, I mean.

MIKEPCFL: So the Orioles say they are going to look into adding more scouting, using analytics and maybe getting into the international market. They should catch up to the rest of the league in how many years?
Keith Law: That’s great to hear, but Duquette’s contract is up, and if he’s not the GM next year then the words won’t amount to anything.

addoeh: Odds Kelenic is a top 10 prospect this time next year?
Keith Law: Not impossible. 10-15%.

JP: The first thing I’d tell my client is to simply delete their social media accounts and start mew ones from scratch. Simplest fix.
Keith Law: I completely agree.

Ryan: I’m getting errors so apologies if duplicate question. Is Knizner enough of a prospect that the Cards should consider moving Kelly?
Keith Law: If they’re not going to play Kelly any time soon, yes, because he’s ready, and Knizner, while not as good as Kelly, is also a good prospect.

Harris: You have Tatis above Vlad Jr. However, it seems the media hype is bigger for Vlad Jr. Why do you think this is?
Keith Law: Vlad Jr. is great. His dad is a Hall of Famer. He has unbelievable power, which makes for good highlights. But Tatis is a shortstop with incredible skills on both sides of the ball.

Steve: Were Alonso or Gimenez close to making the top 50? Is defense the thing holding Alonso back from being top 50?
Keith Law: Alonso I answered above. Gimenez isn’t close. I don’t think there’s much ceiling there.

Larry: Where would Carter Stewart have been in your top 50?
Keith Law: Top 25-ish? But again, I have no idea what’s going on with him. I can only grade the player I saw in the spring, but I don’t know if there’s a health consideration.

Jeff: Could Adley Rutschman go 1-1? Any catcher ever picked first?
Keith Law: Steve Chilcott was the first overall pick in 1966. He never reached the majors. The second pick was Reggie Jackson.

Lilith: So is Iglesias now the premium reliever on the market? Who would be most interested?
Keith Law: Wouldn’t every contender be? I’m not being flippant – who wouldn’t be better of for having him?

Chris: Why do you have verdugo ranked so low?
Keith Law: I don’t. I think I have him in just the right spot, actually.

Jefferson K.: How bad would Pache’s bat have to be to not be a big league starter?
Keith Law: He’s going to be in the discussion for best defensive CF in the game when he gets there. You don’t have to hit much – and he’s going to be a 20-HR type – to be a starter when you’re saving 15+ runs a year with your glove too.

Greyson: Has Jake Rogers’ hitting tool regressed, has he gotten unlucky, or was there a major hole in his swing that he hasn’t patched? Why is he having so much trouble making contact?
Keith Law: He couldn’t hit last year – I saw him, wrote about it, then wrote it again when he was in the trade. Just an older guy in high-A beating up some bad pitching, but he couldn’t hit quality stuff at all.

Larry: Hey Keith, I know you’ve said before that you have come around some to Austin Riley. I’m still confused about him though. How valuable is he really if he’s striking out this much?
Keith Law: The contact rate & bat speed remain the concerns. He’s done wonders with his body, become a legit third baseman, and has real power.

Scott: Is Dalbec a prospect for Sox or too old for Single A ? Also, have you been to Evero in Newark De. yet?
Keith Law: And Dalbec is pretty similar, actually. I just got him the other day when Salem came here Monday night … there’s a lot of swing and miss, but the contact he makes will be hard. That might be an 80 arm at third too, although Riley moves better and of course has hit at higher levels. I really hope Dalbec goes to Portland soon.

Joseph: Now that you have finished reading all the winners of the Pulitzer, do you have any other reading “challenges” you wish to pursue?
Keith Law: I have other lists I use when perusing bookstores – Booker winners, Hugo winners (just four left, and I own two), the top 100 lists the Guardian or Modern Library put out – but I’m done pushing myself through miserable reads just to finish checklists. I think.

Keith: Is Kyle Lewis still the Ms top prospect? Any observations on him from the futures game? Would he slide in the 100-150 range?
Keith Law: Might take Evan White over him.

Defensive Woe-rioles: Cedric Mullins has done nothing but produce the last 2 years in AA/AAA and looked good in ST but missed your top 50. Is he a top 100? Close?
Keith Law: Not top 100.

Slick Rick Hahn: You still holding any Lucas Gioltio stock as we enter the 2nd half or has that ship sailed?
Keith Law: I’ve seen enough signs of progress in the last six weeks to still think he’s going to be a good big-league starter.

Ryan: How do you see Dakota Hudson moving forward? I’m hoping he’s closer to a back end of the rotation starter than to a Matt Bowman.
Keith Law: I feel like it’s about 90% reliever with him. Other scouts who were there Sunday all said the same to me – asking how he was a first rounder with that delivery and repertoire. (He was really good that spring in college, though.)

Joe: Shane Bieber isn’t even close to the top 100? Well Eric Longenhagen certainly disagrees. The guy sits at 93 with plus plus command and solid offspeed pitches.
Keith Law: OK, I’ll tell Eric you’re thinking of him. (And no, Bieber doesn’t “sit at 93.”)
Keith Law: Gotta run, phone call coming up right now. Thank you all for reading, for chatting, for coming to the book signing on Saturday or finding me on the concourse on Sunday. Quick reminder I’ll be in Acton, Massachusetts, at the Silver Unicorn Bookstore on Saturday, July 28th, at 1 pm, to talk Smart Baseball and sign your copies. Hope to see many of you then!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ July 19, 2018
→ By keith

Istanbul app.

Istanbul won the Kennerspiel des Jahres in 2014 and was one of my favorite new games of that year, ranking only behind Splendor on my personal list. Although the basic mechanics of individual turns revolve mostly around set collection, gathering items you can trade for rubies (required to win the game) or for money you can use to buy rubies, the real heart of Istanbul strategy is critical path modeling: figuring out the best way to move around the variable board to ensure you’re being as efficient as possible with your turns. Because the board itself is built each game, with a basic ‘short paths’ setup but millions of potential arrangements of the 16 tiles, you can master the concept but can’t go into a game with a set plan.

Acram Digital has now introduced a port of Istanbul for iOS and Android, and it’s excellent right out of the chute, with just minor flaws even at its first release. The app particularly helps the novice player by making it hard to forget options you might have to enhance your turns; if you have earned a special ability or have the right to play a card that might help, the app reminds you of this, sometimes with a dialog asking if you’re sure you don’t want to use that ability, sometimes just with an icon right on the screen that puts the option in front of you. That makes game play much easier against the AI and more fair if you’re playing online against more advanced players.

In Istanbul, each player is trying to be the first to collect five rubies, anywhere on the board. You can buy them with combinations of goods, with gold coins, by upgrading your ‘wheelbarrow’ three times (a total cost of 21 coins), or by buying both upgrades at the small mosque or the great mosque. The catch with all of those tiles, other than the wheelbarrow upgrade, is that the cost increases each time someone uses the tile, so getting there early can be beneficial … but it costs you the change to acquire upgrades that might make it easier to collect rubies later in the game. You move around the 4×4 board of tiles with your merchant and a stack of ‘assistant’ tokens; when you land on a tile and want to use it, you must leave one assistant there, or, if you’ve been there before and left an assistant already, pick that one back up. Once your stack is out of assistants, you can move but can’t take an action unless you pick an assistant back up or return to the Fountain tile and bring ’em all home. I reviewed the game in full for Paste back in 2015.

The app is pretty much spot on; I had just one little glitch, found some spelling errors in the tutorial, and would like harder AI opponents, but that’s a modest list of criticisms for a brand new release – and it has yet to crash on me through dozens of plays. The app offers four board setups, including the semi-random setup described in the physical game’s rulebook, and lets you play one to four human or AI opponents, with three difficulty settings for the latter. The game’s icons are simple, but sometimes the function of a card or a mosque upgrade isn’t immediately clear; you can click on any of those and hit the (i) in the upper left corner to get a full description of what it does. There’s a tiny lag sometimes when you complete an action before the app gives you the icons to move to the next screen, not a serious problem but something that threw me off the first few times I played.

The app also includes the ‘neutral assistants’ variant, where each player starts the game with one assistant in his/her stack that doesn’t belong to any single player, so if you go to a tile with a neutral assistant on it, you can pick it up and take the action even if you didn’t leave the token there in the first place. It’s definitely worth the $7 as is, although again, I think the hard AI players need to be stronger; I’m no expert at the game but can beat them more than half the time even on the harder boards.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: apps, boardgames

→ July 18, 2018
→ By keith

DC eats, 2018 edition.

The Futures Game was more or less in my backyard this year, a shade over two hours away in Washington DC, so I drove down there on Saturday before my event at Politics & Prose (many thanks to the 120-plus of you who came to see Jay Jaffe and me speak) and then drove home on Monday morning, in time to get my daughter from camp and head to the Wilmington Blue Rocks game with her that night. That did limit the amount of time I had for culinary exploration, but I did try three new spots.

Little Pearl is the third outpost in the Rose’s Luxury empire, taking the little daytime café concept from the front of Pineapple & Pearls and spinning it out into its own location, which was buzzing on Sunday morning despite the heat and Little Pearl’s small, eclectic menu. Their daytime menu includes six “sandwiches,” including the gravlax toast, in which the cured salmon comes cubed and tossed with avocado, heirloom tomato, a little crème fraîche, capers, dill, and pepitas, on a thick slice of sourdough bread. I’m a sucker for any sort of smoked or cured salmon (or, if I’m somewhere I trust, even raw), and this was really spectacular, satisfying with the combination of fats, with just a little acidity from the tomatoes and the capers to balance it out. The salmon used for the gravlax must be of extremely high quality given how clean and bright its flavor was; sometimes curing can accentuate fishier flavors in salmon, which is an oily fish to begin with, but Little Pearl’s was bright and fresh. I also tried the potato donut, which was incredibly light and airy, benefiting from the reduction in gluten that comes from swapping out some wheat flour for potato. (It does not taste like potato, if you’re wondering.) The menu also includes spicy fried chicken, a novel twist on a burger, a few salads, gelato, and some grab-and-go items like a yogurt parfait or banana bread (which is cake, really). They use Passenger coffee from Lancaster for their coffee bar, which includes a full array of espresso options.

Tail Up Goat opened in 2016 in the Adams Morgan neighborhood of DC and has already earned a Michelin star. The menu changes often, but I believe their crispy salt cod croquettes are a regular fixture, with good reason, as they hit exactly the right note of the distinctive and, yes, salty flavor of that classic peasant food (what you might know as bacalhao in Portuguese or baccalà in Italian), whipped with potato until smooth, here served with smoked cauliflower and pickled onion. Salt cod is going to have a fishy note, but whether it’s a pleasant one depends on how it’s prepared, and here it’s prepared exceptionally so you’re almost getting the memory of that note rather than the overpowering flavor of badly prepared fish. The new potatoes with romano beans and herbs were perfectly cooked although eating them at the same time as the salt cod was probably our mistake.

The stracciatella with peaches, shallots, basil leaves, and pepitas was another highlight; the cheese, similar to the center of burrata but worked more to develop the stretchy curds that give the cheese its name, shone like a fresh ricotta, and although it’s a little early around these parts for peaches – I believe our local pick-your-own place has one variety that’s ready – these were sweet like peak-season fruit. We tried two of the pasta dishes, a spring pea agnolotti with chanterelles and roasted carrots as well as a tagliatelle with sausage and an herb pesto, with the agnolotti the better of the two, with more tooth to the dough and a higher filling/pasta ratio than you’d find with other agnolotti, which benefited the dish since the peas’ flavor is subtler than that of red meat. The tagliatelle was rolled a little thinner than I like that cut of pasta, which I think is best when you really have something to sink your teeth into, but that’s a matter of personal taste. They also make a daiquiri with Neisson Rhum Agricole, a 100 proof rum made from sugar cane rather than molasses, and Smith & Cross traditional rum, as well as lime, orange, and cardamom, but it’s really rum-forward rather than losing those flavors in citrus or sweetening agents. As for the name, it’s from a saying on the co-owner’s birthplace in the Virgin Islands: “Tail up goat, tail down sheep.”

I was fortunate enough to be invited by the Fangraphs crew to Timber Pizza on Saturday night, after Jay and I finished our signing and we’d all had beers at Comet Ping-Pong (the basement was closed for a private event, to our dismay). They call their pizza “Neapolitan-ish,” which is only accurate in that the crust is thin, but the style is really quite different – the crust’s edges aren’t puffy and charred, and the center isn’t wet – so this is somewhere more like Roman-style pizza, with a thinner, crispier crust than you’d get at a true Neapolitan joint. It’s all still good, just a matter of what you like in your pizza. I was particularly impressed by the quality of the cured meats Timber used, especially the pepperoni, something I almost never eat because I find it too salty and greasy and a source of immediate regret. Theirs was none of those things, least of all the last part, and I’d order it again, although I also loved their green pizzas with basil pesto, including the Penelope (fresh mozzarella, mushrooms, bacon, and smoked paprika) and the Green Monster (fresh mozzarella, feta, kale, and zucchini). If you’re into pizza and in DC, I do have a bit of bad news: 2 Amy’s is closed for the foreseeable future after a pipe burst in their kitchen on July 7th, flooding the place and causing substantial damage everywhere. They haven’t been able to give a projected date for a re-open.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: breakfast, coffee, pizza, washington

→ July 14, 2018
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 7/14/18.

No new Insider pieces this week; I’ll have a Futures Game wrapup Sunday night and an updated top 50 prospects ranking out on Thursday. I did hold a Klawchat this past week.

Over at Paste, I reviewed the popular and very highly-rated new board game Rising Sun, from designer Eric Lang (Blood Rage, Ancestree), a $100 game with meticulously-crafted miniature figures but a fairly straightforward set of mechanics around area control and negotiation.

In just a few hours, I’ll be DC’s famed bookstore Politics & Prose with Jay Jaffe to talk about our books and sign copies. The event starts at 6 pm.

Two weeks from today, I’ll be at the Silver Unicorn Bookstore in Acton, MA at 1 pm to speak and sign copies of my book as well.

And now, the links…

Longreads first: The Guardian goes deep on how the Caribbean island of Nevis, half of the country of St. Kitts and Nevis, has become one of the world’s most secretive offshore havens for money laundering and tax evasion.
Was rum invented in India, not the Caribbean as generally believed? It sounds like it – but to what extent was rum invented rather than discovered? It’s the distilled byproduct of the fermentation of molasses, which itself was the waste left over from sugar production; millers left the molasses out in the sun, using it to feed slaves, and the stuff would ferment into the precursor of rum.
There are anti-vaxxers even in the world of horses, and the result is a fight against a vaccine for an equine virus called Hendra, a very deadly paramyxovirus that can also infect humans, and is among the candidates for the next global pandemic.
No sooner do I praise Italy for the quality of life over there than the new right-wing government says parents no longer have to provide proof of vaccinations for schoolchildren. Some useful phrases for Italian learners: il morbillo, la parotite, la rosolia = measles, mumps, rubella.
Increased use of nonmedical (i.e., bogus) exemptions has driven down vaccination rates in Arizona, spurring fears of loss of herd immunity for highly contagious, deadly diseases already present in the state like measles and pertussis.
The “white nose fungus” killing bats is spreading to more states and more bat species. Bats serve a crucial role in human agriculture, feeding on many pests that would otherwise destroy crops or encourage further use of pesticides.
There’s a lot more talk about plastic pollution lately, even in our destroy-the-EPA life as it is right now. Recycling alone won’t solve this problem; we need to make less, use less, and think more holistically about the life cycle of plastics. And as of this year, China won’t recycle the world’s plastic waste any more.
Deadspin ran this crushing letter from a parent whose preschool-aged daughter was molested by a relative. One key line, from the therapist the parent consulted: “Kids that age don’t make this kind of statement up, you have to take it seriously.” Bear that in mind when you read excuses made for a certain Oregon State left-hander who pled guilty to molesting a child around this age, and now has tried to deny it.
The U.S. economy is approaching the mythical threshold known as “full employment,” although such figures generally ignore unemployed workers who have chosen not to continue seeking work, or who are unable to for whatever reason. But full employment isn’t NAIRU, the non-accelerating rate of unemployment, so high inflation is eating most workers’ wage gains.
People often ask how I ended up choosing Delaware when I relocated from Arizona back to the east coast. One reason was its low taxes, and it turns out that Delaware’s tax burden is the lowest of all 50 states after you adjust for cost of living. I actually think our property taxes could be higher, especially if the funds could help improve the dismal schools in the city of Wilmington and boost its police force.
The San Francisco branch of the Federal Reserve posted a note saying the 2017 GOP Tax Bill will boost the economy far less than promised, in part because the economy was already growing over the previous few years.
Mainers keep voting for Medicaid expansion and their racist governor Paul LePage, a Republican, refuses to implement it. He’s offered to go to jail rather than expand the program, to which I say, why not both?
I reviewed the new documentary about Fred Rogers the other day; the Observer has a piece on the ‘haunting doubts’ of Rogers and Paddington Bear, building off a line Rogers uttered to his wife shortly before he died, wondering if he’d been a good enough Christian in his life.
Stop ‘snitch tagging’ on social media. I block anyone who does this. If someone asks me about a player, don’t tag the player on my response. People doing that have largely driven me away from tweeting opinions on players, and leaving those opinions in chats or on ESPN.
A Republican state senator in Kansas who is running in a primary for a Congressional seat said “outside of western civilization is only barbarism”, and later clarified that he meant Judeo-Christian civilization … you know, the same civilization that enslaved over 10 million Africans not very long ago.
Neutrinos are one of the great mysteries of particle physics – long believed to be massless, now known to have unfathomably minuscule mass, interacting via the weak force and gravity, able to pass through entire planets without hitting anything – and for the first time, scientists detected neutrinos and identified their source galaxy.
The Daily Beast has a fun slideshow of the strange mix of stunning architectural styles in Baku, Azerbaijan.
Tweet of the week:

It’s so fucking weird that we scrape the seed pod of an orchid into ice cream and that flavor is considered plain.

— Michael Hoffman (@Hoffm) July 6, 2018

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: astronomy, caribbean, Economics, environment, italy, kansas, links, maine, physics, pollution, rum, stick to baseball, vaccines

→ July 12, 2018
→ By keith

Klawchat 7/12/18.

I’ll be co-hosting an all-ages board game night at the Brandywine Hundred Library in north Wilmington on Friday night starting at 5 pm. Details here.

Keith Law: We require certain skills. Klawchat.

barbeach: Keith: Thanks so much for doing these chats. Loved your book. If you’re Cashman, who are you NOT willing to part with to get Machado?
Keith Law: There’s no way I trade Sheffield, who could probably be their fifth starter in the second half, for two months of Machado. I’m not sure I’d trade him for any rental, really.

BigSauce: Kyle Tucker – Just A Guy, The Guy or better than Average Guy
Keith Law: He’s very much a GUY.

harold: why is Bader not playing everyday in STL? His WAR is the highest of their outfield by far. Fowlers struggles are well documented, and Pham and Ozuna haven’t been good either
Keith Law: I do think Bader should play more, or be traded, so we agree on that. However: 1) His WAR is largely boosted by defense on B-R; Fangraphs doesn’t give his glove the same value; and 2) his offensive value has been almost entirely from mashing against lefties.

Kyle KS: What recourse does Jordan Hicks have? His arm is abused by Matheny, getting bullied by Norris and Matheny and even the STL-PD seemed to pass it off as “boys will be boys.” He’s not in a good spot.
Keith Law: That’s one for his agent. If that happens to a player, their best move is to go to the agent, who can either go to the GM/President or through the union. I don’t think this runs afoul of MLB’s rules on hazing, which were specifically targeted at the September crap like putting rookies in women’s clothes, but I doubt MLB is thrilled at the news.

Jesse B: Is Wander Franco (TB) the next DR player to skyrocket up prospect lists?
Keith Law: He can really hit. Maybe a 2b, but the bat is real. Very quick hands.

Nicholas: In order to trade for Machado, would the Red Sox have to part with a MLB player or do they have enough parts in their MiLB system to make it happen?
Keith Law: I don’t see how they do it.

Kevin: Assuming everyone stays with the White Sox and develops into major leaguers, does Madrigal push Anderson or Moncada to a different position? Asking for a friend.
Keith Law: Anderson is the only true shortstop of the three, so it can’t be him. I think Moncada would make a good CF.

Mike: I’m still upset that no one picked up on your Laaz Rockit reference last week.
Keith Law: I’m upset enough that I’m going to take a holiday in Cambodia.

Brent: As a Cardinals fan I agree with your assessment of Yadier Molina’s HOF candidacy, he just doesn’t quite cut it. Wouldn’t cards fans energy be better spent promoting Jim Edmonds/Ted Simmons who have legitimate HOF cases? I know Edmonds fell off the ballot, but I can dream.
Keith Law: The lack of fan support for Edmonds – who was a two-way star for the Cardinals – puzzles me too.

Mike: Has jalen Miller done anything different this year, or is his resurgence (ok…surgence) more of a mirage?
Keith Law: Still only 21, so plenty of time to develop, but he’s repeating the league and he’s faded quite a bit since his strong start – since June 1st he has a .254 OBP and 3 walks vs 36 K.

Joe: DL Hall has been on a roll lately. Any positive reports?
Keith Law: Quite positive. Three-pitch guy. I get a lot of “mid-rotation starter ceiling” on him, which surprises me because he seems to have a few weapons to miss bats. He’s one of my top targets to see in the second half.

Alex: Anything to take out of F. Whitley’s 2018 or should we just consider it a lost year at this point?
Keith Law: I’m not sure what the question is – he’s thrown just 21 innings, and they were very good.

Alex: Any notable addition to your kitchen equipment from the Europe trip?
Keith Law: We didn’t shop that much, although we did end up in a bookstore in Milan (alas, no Baseball Intelligente) and I picked up a small cookbook devoted completely to gnocchi and gnudi.

Jo-Nathan: Fuck, we are going to see Tim Tebow in a Mets uniform in September aren’t we?
Keith Law: One hundred percent.

Sing: Hi Keith, could you shed some light on what happened with Carter Stewart? Did the Braves realize they had an injured pitcher or was it about money? Also, does getting the 9th pick in 2019 provide more of a benefit to the Braves if he was injured? Love your work and thanks.
Keith Law: I won’t. I will say that I think Stewart should head for a junior college and re-enter next year’s draft; he could be a top 5 pick with a similar spring without injury. I think Atlanta is worse off with the 9th pick next year than with the 8th pick this year.

Gary: Do you see Jason Bahr as an eventual mid-rotation starter?
Keith Law: I do not.

Dennis: Why didn’t your wife come to Europe with you and your daughter?
Keith Law: She hates flying – used to have a real fear of it, now just truly dislikes it, and the flights to/from Europe are no joke, plus it’s two flights to get to my cousins in Genoa (there was one nonstop option from Newark to Milan, but it was expensive, and EWR sucks). I did offer, but she really wasn’t interested.

Jo-Nathan: Any word on how Kyle Lewis looks? The numbers are underwhelming but what are scouts saying?
Keith Law: Not 100%.

Kyle KS: What sites do you have open while chatting? You pull up numbers and other info in a hurry.
Keith Law: I just open sites as needed, like B-R and Fangraphs.

Pat: SSS at Toledo aside, has Jacob Robson made himself a viable prospect this year? Seems like improved power with a decent eye, but, unsupportable BABIP. 4th OF? CF on a bad team?
Keith Law: Fourth OF. That’s a fringe prospect for me. Not much power for a corner.

El Perezoso: Where do you feel Machado ends up and for what return?
Keith Law: Brewers and Dodgers make most sense, but honestly, if I’m betting, I’d bet on him not moving at all.

Matt: What is Zach Britton worth on the trade market?
Keith Law: Not much, since he’s barely pitched since his return and hasn’t looked right yet.

Jay: Do we need to give Mickey Callaway more time to grow as a manager, or can we already proclaim this was a bad hire? Man he seems clueless so far.
Keith Law: I don’t know what you expect him to do with that roster, though.

Mike: How do you evaluate someone like Puk for rankings coming into next season?
Keith Law: I usually drop TJ guys quite a bit until they’re back throwing and we at least have some reports on whether their velocity has returned.

John: Is Dayton Moore with the Royals when they return to contention?
Keith Law: Probably not.

Rod: Can you see Cristian Pache getting promoted to AA before the end of the year?
Keith Law: I see no point to that.

Jason: What’s the story behind the “accident” of electing Rick Ferrell to the HOF?
Keith Law: Some friend of his asked a few Vets Committee members to vote for Ferrell so he wouldn’t be embarrassed by getting shut out. Enough of them voted for him that he got in. So maybe we shouldn’t use him as some low bar for future candidates to clear.

Matt: Thanks for recommending Ticket to Ride! What should I pick up next?
Keith Law: Depends on who you’re playing with and whether you want something similar or a shade more challenging. Carcassonne is always my go-to recommendation for folks who are looking for a new game but haven’t played a ton of titles.

Sean: Hi Keith, thanks again for the chats. Watching Enyel De Los Santos’ debut his short-arm motion surprised me. Is that a potential problem for him going forward? Also, does he project as a mid to back-end rotation starter? I am trying not to overreact to his potential by scouting his AAA stat line.
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s a starter, between the delivery and lack of a real breaking ball.

Mike: Is Machado really that much of an upgrade over Andujar? These rumors don’t pass the sniff test for me.
Keith Law: Specifically, what is two months of Machado (plus October) worth versus Andujar? Maybe two wins, and then the postseason? What’s that worth? Not a huge package of prospects, IMO.

Jimmy: What policies of Trump do you like ?
Keith Law: He keeps promising to liberalize marijuana laws. Granted, I want that to come with expunging records of past convictions for trivial possession, but this would be a huge start.

Scott: If Carter Kieboom continues at a somewhere similar pace to finish out the year, could you see him moving up to a potentially top 25 prospect going into next year?
Keith Law: No, that’s too much for a guy who’s not a shortstop.

Jimmy: RE twitter comment about Kaepernick/baseball: I don’t think you would go out of your way to bash Kap like you have Tebow …
Keith Law: The cool thing is that what you think I would do doesn’t matter. If any player were gifted a job and promotions he hadn’t earned, and thus got in the way of another player (Urena can’t play LF in Binghamton because the washed-up QB is stumbling around out there), I would bash the team that signed him, as I have the Mets.

Aaron: I know you’re more of a fan of literary fiction, but what popular fiction (aside from Harry Potter) have you liked?
Keith Law: I love some classic authors like Agatha Christie and Rex Stout. Ann Patchett certainly crosses over into popular fiction although her work is good enough to count as literature. I guess that’s where you’ll find my tastes in popular fiction – the smart stuff that crosses over into popularity.

JP: Klaw! Whats up my dude? Dustin May.. what are your thoughts?
Keith Law: Great athlete, two pitches right now, control well ahead of command, having an outstanding season for a 20-year-old in a strong hitter’s park.

HH: If you’re Cleveland, do you give up Mejia for two months of Machado (and really, only October)? Does that get it done?
Keith Law: If I’m Baltimore I take that deal. I don’t do it if I’m Cleveland; I might deal Mejia, but not for a rental.

Scooter: Do you expect Alec Bohm (given his track record and age) to be an every day player down the line for the Phillies?
Keith Law: Yes. I think he’s a regular, but probably not a star unless he can become an average defender at third. Early pro reports on him haven’t been good.

Michael: RBI’s mean nothing, but does the 15th 10 RBI game in history mean anything?
Keith Law: No.

Nick: What high school prospect has had the best breaking ball you’ve ever scouted?
Keith Law: I didn’t get a truly healthy Carter Stewart this spring, so it’s one of Groome, Giolito, or Bundy. I said all three had 70 curveballs.

Lenneal McKudu: Has the industry warmed up to Drew Waters, yet? 136 wRC+ through the halfway mark in Rome.
Keith Law: Don’t use wOBA/wRC+ for minor leaguers. Chase Vallot had a 136 wRC+ last year in Wilmington, and then posted a 65 wRC+ this year before he was demoted.
Keith Law: Guys who can’t hit decent pitching – like Vallot – can feast enough on bad pitching to put up what look like good wRC+ numbers, but they don’t actually give us the information that they provide on major leaguers.

Alex: The Tigers trade Fulmer to the Braves for Austin Riley, Drew Waters, and Joey Wentz. Who says no first?
Keith Law: Why would Atlanta do that

Welcome Back Kapler: You being high on Kap as a manager was basically the only reason that I gave him a chance after the disastrous first week as a manager. How do you think he has done? Secondly – do you think the Phillies will get him help like Machado or should they stay the course and sign Machado/Harper in the offseason (either one).
Keith Law: I think he’s done extremely well, and I agree with others who’ve said they’re the favorites for Machado, between the front office connections, their financial wherewithal, and the non-development of Franco (although he’s had a nice few weeks).

Sugar Shane Delery: Is there a more frustrating player in baseball than Gregory Polanco? All the tools but highly inconsistent.
Keith Law: It seems like that’s happened a lot with Pirates’ hitters, no? Polanco and Bell are underperforming in the majors (relative to tools – Polanco hasn’t been bad, but he should be a star). Meadows never developed as expected in the minors, although he was hurt a lot. Newman and Hayes have been OK, but a little below expectations. I don’t have a good answer here.

Matt: Pache is up to 8 HRs on the year, is his body just filling out? It looks sustainable.
Keith Law: I said over the winter I thought he’d end up a 20+ homer guy. He was just so young for low-A last year, and his body was really slight for his age too.

Nick: Can you recall the most a consensus top 10 pick dropped in the draft (not counting signability/health concerns).
Keith Law: It’s always signability or health.

Ryan: Is there anyone in the Mets system that you are high on that other publications or scouts aren’t really talking about much?
Keith Law: I don’t know about other publications, but i have certainly boosted Dunn and Peterson, and to a lesser extent Kay.

Robbie: Garrett Richards seems to need TJ. Is there something about his delivery that’s led to so many of his injuries, or is he just unlucky with the way his body has reacted to the workload?
Keith Law: I think this is largely the same injury, with TJ delayed by stem cell treatment.

Neil: Optimistic about Dalbec, or does his age and level cancel out most of his progress?
Keith Law: He is a prospect thanks to his power, but a 30% strikeout rate – for a guy who’s long had swing and miss problems – for a 23-year-old in high-A is not good.

Nick: Ryan McKenna – what do you make of his breakout this year?
Keith Law: I’m in. Future regular. Late bloomer, not shocking given where he came from.

Anthony: Beyond Adell, any prospects who have impressed a lot thus far this year? Or will we have to wait for the mid season update next week?
Keith Law: I’d rather get the list out next week, and then discuss any other names in the chat that afternoon.

Oscar: Jumping on the Machado trade train. If you’re the Dodgers, what would be your final “take it or leave it” offer for Machado?
Keith Law: I’d put Verdugo and Smith in an offer; I get the sense they’re not as high on Verdugo as his performance would imply, and Smith is behind Ruiz. If the O’s can do better than that, more power to them.

Zach: I’m a 30-yr who finally walked away from the GOP in the wake of Trump. Have they always been this nuts or is this a product of post-Obama hysteria?
Keith Law: I have voted Republican many times in the past, and I think this is a new and very unfortunate phase, one that will almost certainly ensure I never vote for any Republican candidate again.

Aaron : Your early thoughts on the 2019 Draft, any names to keep an eye on during the early part of the draft process?
Keith Law: Too early. I’ll do some events later this month, including Under Armour, and visit this at the end of August once showcases/the cape are done. I will say scouts’ comments on the collegiate national team were fairly negative, with a lot of questions why some players (Logan Davidson comes to mind) weren’t even invited, and comments how the freshmen were better prospects than the sophomores.

Harrisburg Hal: Have you ever made chocolate lava cake? incredibly easy or difficult? I’m not a chocolate person, but thought I’d surprise my wife by baking.
Keith Law: Incredibly easy. You just have to make sure you pull it out early enough … and then we really need to have a conversation about bringing back phrasing.

Cletus: Bundy got crushed again last night. Should O’s shut him down, or rest him more?
Keith Law: I’d like to see them try to use him as an extra-rest starter, the way the Angels tried to do with Ohtani. I don’t think Bundy could be a straight reliever, pitching on consecutive days.

Rob k : Now that Terry and Sandy are gone, I think we’re starting to see how much of the mess in Flushing is due to ownership. How responsible is Selig for propping up the Wilpons when they lost all their money.
Keith Law: Pushing them to sell the club would be best for the league as a whole.

Michael: Why wouldn’t they move Machado? Has to be better than a draft pick
Keith Law: My question is whether they can get everyone involved in the decision – and who knows who exactly is involved, beyond Duquette – to agree on anything.

Matt: Thank you so much for always sticking up for trans right and for standing for equality! We definitely need more public figures like you. How long ago was it that you were a woman?
Keith Law: Yes, you can only believe in rights for trans people if you are one. It’s amazing that there are people this dumb and bigoted in 2018.

Jerome: What happened with Matt Mclain? Did the Dbacks realize they reached for him and decided not to sign him?
Keith Law: Teams never do that.

Nic: What happened with all these draftees not signing?I kind of just assumed,like you had mentiones on your periscope of the draft, that everyone drafted that high would sign.
Keith Law: Two of the unsigned players had some kind of post-draft medical issue, although I don’t even ask what those are when I hear about them. I believe Ginn and McLain simply wanted more money than those teams offered them, which I really don’t understand for Ginn, as a hard-throwing high school pitcher with a violent delivery. I certainly hope he stays healthy, but I worry about kids with that profile who turn down seven figures out of HS (like Karsten Whitson).

Gerald: Excited to see that you are doing a book signing in Acton, MA. Are you going to be doing any scouting while up in the area or is it just a one-day trip?
Keith Law: It’s possible I’ll hit the Cape beforehand.

Matt: If I decided to convert any top 15-20 starter into a closer, would they immediately become the best reliever in the league?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t say “any” but certainly most.

Hugo: What should the Orioles do with Chris Davis? It’s a lot of years and dollars to just DFA.
Keith Law: That’s a sunk cost; if he’s not worth the roster spot, then you DFA him. He’ll clear waivers anyway.

Sam: Who would you keep, between Will Smith and Keibert Ruiz? Dustin May and Mitchell White?
Keith Law: Ruiz for sure. May, as White hasn’t been 100% healthy since I saw him last spring (2017).

Oscar: Do you buy into the theory that participating in the HR derby can ruin a player’s swing?
Keith Law: No.

Rob: Surprised that Imani Abdullah retired yesterday. I know he’s been struggling but only 21. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I heard, secondhand, he was topping out in the mid-80s. Even in HS he wasn’t projectable and had no feel for a breaking ball.

Tom: Regarding the Braves and 8th vs. 9th pick–is that a broad assessment or does it have to do with the player specifically?
Keith Law: It’s about next year’s draft looking worse than this year’s. And I did have Stewart #2 on my board.

Stephen: O/U: 200Ks in 2019 for Kopech.
Keith Law: If he makes 28 starts he’ll clear that.

Brett: Do you view Khalil Lee as a potential impact prospect in KC or simply the best of what the Royals currently have?
Keith Law: He’s legit. Maybe a bit of a high-K guy but definite OBP, power, some speed, at worst a plus defender in RF but maybe an average CF.

Rob: After a rough start to the season, Hunter Greene has seemingly made the right adjustments and is doing well. Have you seen him pitch this year?
Keith Law: In March. I’ll see him again on Sunday.

Jack: Do you ever take into account poor pitch calling when scouting a pitcher?
Keith Law: Yes, especially in college/HS. I wrote about that when arguing for Gerrit Cole in the 2011 draft – I thought the coaches called for his four-seamer way too much and his SL/CH too little.

Danny: Everyone is saying that the Mets should trade Degrom, but it doesn’t seem like that potential package is out there. You have to figure that a DeGrom trade would have to be headlined by a top 15 caliber guy, and all those guys are on teams that are not really players for Degrom . Insterestingly, nationals (Robles), Phillies (sixto) and the Braves (acuna/Albies), could headline packages. Is that something you could see happening?
Keith Law: If the right offer isn’t out there – I agree, it seems unlikely at the moment – then you hold him and trade him this winter. I also don’t love the idea of them making a huge deal with an interim GM situation.

Michael: Unfortunately I can’t make it to P&P on Saturday night, and I’m bummed. Will you be doing any other meet-ups while you’re in DC? At the Futures Game?
Keith Law: Yes, I will try to meet fans (if there’s interest) between BP and first pitch.

Michael: As a Cubs fan, losing Torres for a WS title was worth it. Would it not be worth it to any other team to lose a top prospect for Machado and a title? FFF
Keith Law: Gotta get that flag, though. If you trade Machado and lose in the DS, was it worth it? Does Machado materially improve your chances of winning three playoff series?

Johnny O: Ever read any Tom Wolfe? Such a unique voice and applied equally well to fiction and non-fiction. The Right Stuff is a top 5 for me.
Keith Law: Bonfire of the Vanities. Hated it.

Rob: Taylor Trammell a top 25 prospect after this year?
Keith Law: Definitely not.

Johann Sebastian Vogelbach: What’s your take on the Mets trading deGrom? If they’re striving for a consistently competitive team, restocking the farm by selling sky-high on him for a Sale-like return I feel makes sense. But the Mets claim they prefer a “quick rebuild.” That would require the Wilpons to go empty their wallets this offseason which I have little faith in. I’m torn as a fan. Ultimately my take has been if they’re not getting a Hiura or Tatis Jr in return then no need to bother right now
Keith Law: I do think it will eventually be the right move to trade him and Thor. The “quick rebuild” stuff is wishful thinking.

Keith: Sorry bud, but no matter how much you want state enforced, mandatory vaccination, there’s lots of people (like me) who won’t allow that to happen. I’m not even against vaccines (everyone is free to choose), but to essentially make it criminal to dare question what for profit healthcare services produce is downright disgusting. But yeah, enjoy daydreaming about your future 1984-esque utopia where criticizing anything you don’t agree with is illegal. You’re a joke.
Keith Law: Cool strawman, dude. If you don’t want to vaccinate your kids, you just don’t get to send them to public school. There is no state that forces vaccination of everyone. And, by the way, Dr. Wakefield, the compulsory vaccines are barely profitable for manufacturers.

Michael: Just a comment. You should hit up Comet Ping Pong on Saturday night. Solid pizza and craft beer, and right next door to P&P. Most importantly, you’d be supporting the local establishment that was victimized in #pizzagate.
Keith Law: I absolutely plan to.

guren: If you were offered the same deal as Smart Baseball for a new work of fiction, but you needed to take a year off from your current employer, would you accept?
Keith Law: If I had an idea I felt passionate about and thought I could execute, sure.

Scott: Do you think Carter Kieboom can play second base? Currently blocked at 3B by Rendon, could you see him as the eventual long-term replacement for Murphy at second? And if so would he project there as a plus bat and a slightly below average glove? Thanks, just trying to figure out where he most likely projects for the Nats in the future.
Keith Law: He has to go to second base. Can’t stay at short. Doesn’t really have the arm for third.

Tom: Hey Keith, enjoy your chats AND your commentary regarding life in general. Anyway, rate these guys in order – Justus Sheffield, Jesus Luzardo, Casey Mize. Also who has the highest ceiling of the three?
Keith Law: All three will be on my top 50 next week…

Lenneal : Isn’t it funny how bothered certain people are about an NFL player kneeling during music during a game, in response to unrequited black murders, but those same *patriots* say nothing to Trump lambasting NATO and groveling to Putin? Or having Russia in the Oval Office after firing the FBI Director over a legitimate investigation that has nothing but bad facts. It’s almost as if religion and patriotism are being perverted for very flawed ideologies.
Keith Law: There may also be a racial angle to all of this. I don’t want to get too far out on a limb, though.

Johnny O: At what age do you start paying attention to prospects? International signing day is fun but hard to get excited about guys who likely won’t get to rookie ball until 2020.
Keith Law: When international guys first play in the US, I pay attention. Caliber of competition in the DSL (or the defunct VSL) is too variable.

Jeff: Does Rylan Bannon project as an MLB regular or more?
Keith Law: Less. College product boosted by a great hitters’ park.

Lenneal McKudu: Yeah OK about wOBA and wRC+ but has the industry warmed up to Drew Waters?
Keith Law: Some. Different scouts than saw him struggle and not show great effort in the GCL last summer.

Steve: What’s your opinion of Nathaniel Lowe’s breakout this year, raking in AA to the same extent he started the year in High-A?
Keith Law: Never seen him, but will on Sunday. 1b only and not young so he has a high bar to clear.

Janice The Muppet: Silly subject as it is so trivial but besides Snell anyone you are annoyed not making the all star game and who shouldnt have made it
Keith Law: I don’t care either – especially since ESPN didn’t ask me to do a snubs column this year which was fine with me – but how does Aguilar not make it?

Chris: If you were making the calls in Atlanta, would you move prospects for big league assets this year to make a run or wait it out and run with what you already have?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t trade any prospects whom internal evaluations had as part of the future. I think I said last week I’d deal the surplus dudes like Sims, not core pieces like Touki or Soroka (well, if healthy).

Oscar: France or Croatia: Who ya got?
Keith Law: I’m rooting for Croatia because they’ve never won – and I believe no country younger than the World Cup itself has ever won the Cup.

JR: You regularly get asked why hitters don’t bunt to beat a shift. Did you read Jerry Crasnick’s recent article where he interviewed several hitters and asked that question? It was very insightful for me to hear the players perspective. Basically, they all said if I get on first base, it still take two hits for me to score, so I’m trying to get to at least second base and I have to hit the ball in the air to do that. Oh, and bunting isn’t that easy to do against the type of velocity we face – it’s not an automatic single.
Keith Law: I did see that. The second part is a legitimate point, and something a lot of players would have to work on. The first part is wrongheaded – you’re better off on first base than on your ass in the dugout.

Dick: Is Telmito Agustin a GUY?
Keith Law: I think he can be, maybe isn’t yet but could become one.

Robert: Is there a player you saw at Winston Salem that hasn’t gotten a lot of prospect hype that you would like to see again?
Keith Law: I want to see Gonzalez again; he had a day off the second game I saw them.

Chris: Is there a particular skill or ability that is harder to scout than others? Defense, for instance, or in-game power or a pitcher’s control?
Keith Law: Fastball command for pitchers. Pure hit tool for batters, especially high school guys.

Tom: Keith, I know the Red Sox system is barren. Do they even have on prospect that projects as a possible everyday player or mid-rotation starter (not included just drafted Tristan Casas)? I look at their system and it’s just looks terrible.
Keith Law: They’re all hurt, aren’t they? I guess Mata might be one. Everyone else good in the system is on the shelf.

Rob: Does Micker Adolfo have star potential?
Keith Law: Yes.

The Bilmo: The vast majority of minor league players are there not because they are prospects, but to provide the few prospects with guys to play against. So I find it hard to get worked up over Tebow.
Keith Law: That’s true at the lowest levels. He’s now in AA, where that is much less true, and as I said above he’s blocking someone with more potential.

Donald: Hello Keith, draft related questions, when drafting 40 (give or take) players how many besides top 10 rounds do teams expect to sign? and what would be considered a great draft (besides the obvious trout harper) ? 3 average major league guys?
Keith Law: Three average big leaguers is a great draft. A lot of signings after the tenth round are just to fill out those short season rosters so the number will depend on how many spots you have open (holdovers, players debuting from the DSL).

Matt: The biggest winner in a Machado trade has to be Manny right? Won’t have to worry about a qualifying offer following him around.
Keith Law: Good point.

Chris: Given his performance and years of control, what type of return could Oakland get for Treinen? A Miller or Chapman-type return, or something less given his shorter track record? And would you still make that move?
Keith Law: He’s not at their level. But I like your line of thinking, trade him now while good and while there aren’t many closer types on the market.

Tony: I’ve read Kelenic might have been the #1 pick if he were 6 months younger. Does this really make that big of a difference? Looks like the Mets might have stole one SSS aside.
Keith Law: I disagree with that, but I think he might have been the #1 pick if he’d played the spring in southern California or Florida.

Zach: Imagine spending 200m on Trumbo and Davis, just to let Manny walk away. Wow what a bad utilization of resources. Well at least the O’s are big spenders in the int’l FA market….
Keith Law: My understanding is that Davis was the owner’s doing.

Jason: I know your general thought on the all-star game is to reward players who are actually very good over players with very hot starts. And I certainly agree with that. But where do you stand on a guy like Markakis? I feel like he has to be in given how good his half has been, and he’s not some random jobber. Agree?
Keith Law: Doesn’t really bother me.

Jack: Thank you so much for always sticking up for climate change prevention and for standing for the environment! We definitely need more public figures like you. How long ago was it that you were an iceberg?
Keith Law: Till that fucking ‘unsinkable’ boat hit me. I sure showed it who was boss.

danb: still buying Kingery?
Keith Law: Yes.

CD: Can you tell me anything about Andrew Vaughn, the Cal player that won the Golden Spikes award? Surprised he won against some upperclassmen who are more famous, and was the win justified?
Keith Law: His stats were great, but the Pac 12 was way down, and he’s a 1b only. I voted for Mize.

Jason: Coincidence that the 3 best breaking balls you saw in HS arms were all curves and the 3 have had extreme regression/injury?
Keith Law: All three had Tommy John. Is that because they threw great curveballs, or because they threw a lot of curveballs, or just because they threw a lot, period, because they were so good? Giolito was never overworked. Bundy was overworked very badly in HS.

John S: Despite his production (age/level issues), I was extremely surprised to see Buddy Reed selected to the Futures Game. Are we lacking decent OF prospects for the US team?
Keith Law: They didn’t have a true CF besides him, but I’m with you – he doesn’t belong at all, and is the worst player on the US roster. Daz Cameron deserved that spot.

Chris: At one point, Kevin Maitan was so well thought of that the Braves were willing to blatantly break rules to sign him. Now he’s performing badly in Orem with too many errors in the field, bad plate discipline, and not much hard contact. Are his problems fixable? Or is he just not the talent people thought he was?
Keith Law: Swing has regressed big time and he’s gotten thicker.

Mike: I know you’ve talked about mental health stuff before…my girlfriend is dealing with some serious depression combined with recent unemployment leading to financial distress. I’ve volunteered to assist with the cost of therapy as improved mental health would really impact her job search positively but she’s not willing to try anything. Any advice or suggestions for resources to look at for me to support her? Thanks so much.
Keith Law: It’s very difficult to help someone who doesn’t want it, and mental illnesses often lead sufferers to decline help for various reasons. Is there someone else in her life she trusts who might be able to guide her to a therapist? Or could you coax her into talking to her primary care doctor? My PCP in Arizona was the first to prescribe me something for my anxiety.

Jared: you said earlier that reports on Alec Bohm are “not good”…is that just his defense or everything? Did the Phillies waste another top 10 pick?
Keith Law: I think asking that five weeks after the draft is a bit premature.

Aaron Gershoff : Tell the guy arguing against mandatory vaccinations that they are in the best interest in the country. Healthy population = productive population.
Keith Law: Some people don’t care enough about others to let go of misguided beliefs of ‘freedom.’ I’d like to send them all a copy of the Social Contract, and some pictures of kids dying of measles.

Terry: Was Espinal good value in exchange for Steve Pearce?
Keith Law: Yes, quite good.

Chris: I recall you noting prior to his trade that Matt Harvey wasn’t washed up. Have you been surprised by how he’s pitched? Obviously not an ace but he looks like a decent 5th at this point.
Keith Law: Not surprised. And freed of the circus in NY, perhaps now he’ll fetch more in trade for the Reds than the Mets could get for him.

Oscar: Girlfriend and I picked up Lost Cities and Jaipur based on your recommendations and love them! Any recent two player games you recommend?
Keith Law: Patchwork. My daughter also loved Fox in the Forest, a cute but more luck-driven trick-taking game.

David: % Chance that Urias is a part of the Dodger’s future rotation? Looks like he’s back throwing between 88-91 according to reports. Does his particular type of should surgery make regaining command and/or control very difficult?
Keith Law: He also has to show he can hold that velocity. It’s a long way off.

Fat Stackz: What do you think of Kavanaugh buying Nationals tickets with a credit card? Should this preclude him from being nominated? I am skeptical of someone with so little financial responsibility being nominated as a Supreme Court Justice
Keith Law: I can think of better reasons to oppose his nomination.

James: “Giving up” on a player is too extreme in this case since he’s finally getting consistent ABs, but man, I was hoping for more from Desmond Lindsay this year
Keith Law: I was too.

Joe: Any Cincinnati food recommendations?
Keith Law: Sotto and Nada, both owned by the same folks.

Moe Mentum: Favorite Saturday Night Live cast member of all time?
Keith Law: Tough call between Eddie Murphy and John Belushi. Both geniuses in different ways.
Keith Law: Also, a sentimental thought for Phil Hartman, who was … dare I say it … the heart and soul of those great SNL squads.

Joe: Do you ever feel bad about yourself and your life for saying tim tebow is a washed up QB yet his athletic career has made him more of a successful man than you will ever be?
Keith Law: No. Not even for a fraction of a second.

Mike: “Symptom of the Universe” was recently named the best metal riff of all time. Fair? In trying to decide if that was even the best Black Sabbath riff of all time (Sabbath Bloody Sabbath, Faeries Wear Boots, even Neon Nights) I was reminded of the Scott Ian quote – “Tony Iommi wrote every heavy riff there was to write”.
Keith Law: Supernaut.

Richard Dempsey: Could you please give the context of you apologizing to foreigners while abroad? I too have been abroad during the Trump administration many times and have never come across a problem. Might I suggest that you were going out of your way to start the conversation if it indeed happened?
Keith Law: You might suggest that, and you’d be wrong, and kind of insulting too.

DaveAlden53: No question, just a compliment. In one of your recent letters, you noted how your daughter uses the word “peopley” to describe a place that be uncomfortably busy. My wife has Alzheimer’s, so struggles with crowds. I forwarded your letter to her and she now uses “peopley” often. Thanks for growing her vocabulary and communication options.
Keith Law: Well, I’m not going to get a better question/comment this week than that one, so I will end it here. Thank you so much for sending that along.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I hope to see many of you this weekend: I’m co-hosting a family board game night here in Wilmington on Friday at the Brandywine Hundred Library at 5 pm; speaking and signing books at Politics & Prose on Saturday at 6 pm with Jay Jaffe; and then I’ll be at the Futures Game on Sunday. The top 50 prospects update will go up Thursday and I’ll be back that afternoon to chat again. Thanks for reading!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: klawchat

→ July 11, 2018
→ By keith

Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

I was born in 1973, and watching Mister Rogers’ Neighborhood was a huge part of my early childhood, something I’d watch every day until I was old enough to go to school. Along with other PBS shows like Sesame Street, The Electric Company, Write On, and the later 3-2-1 Contact!, they made appointment viewing for me before the term even existed.

(Side note: My parents swear I loved the mid-70s show Zoom, but unlike the shows I mentioned above and a few others, I have zero memory whatsoever of Zoom, other than that You Can’t Do That on Television! borrowed its format and one time had its actors sing Zoom‘s theme song.)

So the new documentary Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, about the show Mister Rogers’ Neighborhood and to some extent about its star and creator, couldn’t be more squarely aimed at me. Featuring extensive interviews with almost everyone who was involved in the show, it gives viewers a behind-the-scenes look at the program and provides some historical perspective to the show’s importance, although I don’t think it does nearly enough to explain who Fred Rogers was and what drove him to create this seminal yet utterly counterintuitive television program for the youngest viewers.

Won’t You Be My Neighbor? focuses on the story of Fred Rogers from the advent of the TV show until his death in 2003, with just scant references to his life before he created Mister Rogers’ Neighborhood at Pittsburgh’s public television station WQED. Other than Betty (Lady) Aberlin, who was interviewed but declined to appear on camera (as she apparently felt too self-conscious), it seems like director Morgan Neville talked to everyone living who might have something to tell us about the show, including the actors who played Mr. and Mrs. McFeely, Officer Clemons, and Handyman Negri; producer/director Margy Whitmer and floor manager Nick Tallo; Rogers’ widow and two sons; and his longtime friend Yo-Yo Ma. Combined with clips from multiple interviews Rogers gave over his career about his work and the show, along with quite a bit of archival footage from the show itself and behind the scenes, the documentary manages to explain why Mister Rogers’ Neighborhood was so influential and yet seemed so out of place in an environment that thought children needed faster-paced shows and often used the medium simply to sell stuff to young viewers.

But there is a lot missing from this story, both about Rogers himself and the pre-history of his show. The film does include some clips of The Children’s Corner, the first show he created for WQED and the place where many of the puppets who appeared on the later show were first conceived, one of which was an ad hoc fill-in because the show was live and the film strip they had been airing had melted or otherwise broken down on air. It omits the show he created for the CBC, Misterogers, which contributed numerous elements to the later WQED show, and has no mention of his former colleague Ernie Coombs, who became Canada’s Mister Dressup, a show that had much in common with Rogers’ show and which (Wikipedia claims) contributed some songs to the latter.

There are a few hints along the way about Rogers’ life before the Neighborhood, but hardly enough to give us a full picture of his character. Rogers was 40 years old when the first episodes of the show aired, having joined, left, and returned to the seminary, and participated in at least two other shows before his big success. Of his childhood, we learn little; there’s a reference to “Fat Freddy” near the end of the film, but it’s barely explained (and if the pictures we’re shown are any indication, he seemed hardly overweight). He had a quixotic obsession with the number 143, which to him stood for “I love you,” including maintaining his weight at 143 for most of his adult life. That seems like something we might explore more, but other than two of his friends commenting on it being “weird” we get nothing more.

Instead, Neville chose to include some truly tangential material like the right-wing attacks on Rogers’ show and philosophy or the PSAs Rogers filmed after the 9/11 attacks, none of which is that interesting or elucidating on this man whose character still resonates and yet still seems too good to be true. Of all of the archive footage shown that wasn’t directly part of the Neighborhood, none seems to get at this conundrum more than the cringeworthy interview Tom Snyder conducted with Rogers, in which Snyder asks Rogers if he’s “straight.” While I know the question – coming right after Snyder asked “are you square?” – could simply be asking Rogers if his character is really who he is, there’s an undeniable subtext, one this documentary acknowledges, that people assumed Rogers was gay. It is unfathomable to my ears today that an interviewer would ask such a question, but at the same time, showing it now reminds the audience that people have questioned Rogers’ authenticity for a half-century now. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? is a beautiful trip down the nostalgia path, and does its part to convince the viewer that Mister Rogers is very close to who the real Fred Rogers was; unfortunately it does very little to tell us why.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2018 movies, children's television, documentaries, movies, public television

→ July 9, 2018
→ By keith

Exit West.

Mohsin Hamid first gained global notice for his 2007 novel The Reluctant Fundamentalist, which became a best-seller, was shortlisted for the Booker Prize, and won numerous smaller awards for the Pakistani author. His 2017 novel Exit West has been nearly as acclaimed, making the shortlists for the Booker Prize and the National Book Critics Circle’s Fiction award, and even earning a nod from Barack Obama as one of the best books he read in 2017. Working with just a hint of magical realism, Hamid gives us a clear-eyed look at the refugee crisis from the perspective of a young couple, Saeed and Nadia, who fall in love in their unnamed, war-torn country (resembling Afghanistan), and manage to escape through a portal, only to find themselves transient through various stops where refugees are less than welcome.

The only gimmick Hamid employs in the book is the doors, these magic portals that appear and allow people to slip through them and emerge somewhere completely different in the world, at least until authorities find the door and attempt to block it. This allows Hamid to focus on the problems refugees face of resistance from native populations, of the obstacles they face toward assimilation, and of the strain the displacement puts on relationships, while skipping the just as real problems of getting out of the original country and, perhaps, dying en route to somewhere else. The horrors of migrants packed on to tiny, un-seaworthy vessels, or crammed in the back of overheated trucks, are legitimate, but including that part of the refugee experience might overwhelm the parts of the story Hamid wants to tell – the way wars or famines create populations of homeless refugees searching for little more than a safe place to live and work, much as they may have had before the crisis hit.

Nadia and Saeed live ordinary lives in what appears to be a moderate or even progressive Muslim country, with Nadia living alone as a liberated woman who has cut off her conservative family. The two fall in love just as the country begins its collapse, with fundamentalist rebels encroaching on their city and eventually taking it over and enforcing Taleban-like rules on the populace. (Hamid never names the country, the religion, or any of the forces, but the details he does provide sound an awful lot like Afghanistan under the rule of the Taleban, while the movements of the refugees after they exit through the first door resemble the flight of Syrians during their civil war.) After several small incidents drive Nadia from her apartment into Saeed’s home with his father – Saeed’s mother is killed by a stray bullet in the street – they hear of a door that will allow them to escape to somewhere else, beginning a journey that will take them through several doors, to Greece, to England, and eventually the United States, an odyssey that changes them both as individuals and alters the nature of their relationship, permanently, by the time they find a permanent home in California.

Although the primary hook in Exit West is the magic of the doors, which boil down the leave/stay decision to one of money and family, the strongest element of Hamid’s narrative is the tapestry of mundane details of the itinerants’ lives once the social contract of their home city begins to dissolve. There’s a run on a local bank, and in the throngs of people crushing to get to their money, men grope women in the crowd, including Nadia, knowing well that there will be no repercussions, an early sign that without that social contract people will behave like animals. Refugees grasp at what might, to us, seem trivial details that reinforce their humanity – a warm meal, an actual shower, possession of items we take for granted.

At each destination, Hamid presents a different vision of the refugee crisis, none more potent than his version of London, where a military attempt to remove migrant squatters fails, and a new partnership between the natives and the refugees emerges, not merely a détente but an attempt to create a better life for everyone. These are interspersed with brief scenes of other people who pass through doors in search of safety, freedom, or merely something different, presenting the doors as metaphor rather than merely as a plot device to skip over the brutal conditions of migration.

The displacement takes a toll on Nadia and Saeed as well; neither character is the same by the time their journey ends, at least for now, in California. Nadia is also the more interesting and well-developed of the two characters, both at the start of the novel and by the time the two have evolved over the course of the book. The power of Exit West, however, is that the theme applies to any characters forced by circumstance to leave everything behind and step through the first door that appears – without any idea where they’ll end up.

Next up: I just started N.K. Jemisin’s The Stone Sky, the final book in her Broken Earth trilogy that began with The Fifth Season.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: 2017 novels, highly recommended, immigrant fiction, magical realism, pakistani literature

→ July 7, 2018
→ By keith

Stick to baseball, 7/7/18.

I had two new posts for Insiders this week, one on the Futures Game rosters, which were announced on Friday; and a post of scouting notes on Orioles, Phillies, Rangers, White Sox, and Royals prospects I’ve seen in the last few weeks. That Futures Game column included Houston’s Forrest Whitley, but he was removed from his last start with “left oblique discomfort,” so I’m expecting him to be replaced on the roster before game day.

I have two book signings for Smart Baseball coming up this month. Next Saturday, July 14th, I’ll be at Politics & Prose in Washington, DC, signing books and talking baseball with Jay Jaffe; and I’ll be at the Silver Unicorn Bookstore in Acton, Massachusetts, on July 28th, hosted by store owner and former Fangraphs/Hardball Times writer Paul Swydan.

And now, the links…

The best thing I read this week was this massive essay from author/comedian Sara Benincasa called Reading Joan Didion in California Restaurants, although it’s really a meandering set of observations on her life that is by turns funny and poignant. Her line about one of the joys of sharing one’s art with the world is spot on. I do wonder if her family’s name was Dahomeycasa before they changed it, though.
From April 2017, the Atlantic predicted that plant proteins called lectins would be the next health boogeyman for idiots. I found this because a friend suggested a book that blames lectins, without real evidence, for a panoply of health problems.
Henderson Island, an uninhabited island in the south Pacific with a raised coral atoll and a unique, diverse native ecosystem, is also covered with around 18 metric tons of trash, mostly plastic.
Several locations on the planet set all-time heat records last week, more proof that the Chinese will stop at nothing to perpetrate this elaborate ‘climate change’ hoax.
Progessives in the U.S. often point to Scandinavian economies as exemplars of their proposed policies, but Denmark is heading in the opposite direction, with strict laws aimed at forcing immigrants to assimilate into Danish society more quickly, including mandatory instruction for children in “Danish values.” The quotes from Danish natives sound an awful lot like those of white American voters who support Trump.
Timothy Geithner served as Treasury Secretary under Obama, where he condemned predatory lenders who charged usurious interest rates on loans to the poor. Now he runs one via the private equity firm of which he’s President.
Neshaminy High School in Langhorne, PA, a town between Philadelphia and Trenton, has a history of corruption and other controversies under Principal Rob McGee. The latest and most damning instance appeared in the student newspaper, which uncovered evidence that the school was deliberately hiding sexual harassment complaints against teachers and discouraging victims from reporting. The newspaper’s outgoing editor in chief also accused the administration of outing LGBTQ students who wrote critical articles in the paper. For all of this, McGee was recently promoted to an executive position that will pay him over $150,000 a year.
Trump considered invading Venezuela. This seems like a terrible idea on so many levels, not least of which is that we’d end up with a lot of dead American soldiers in the process.
Residents of an apartment complex in Riviera Beach, Florida, are organizing against their landlords over black mold and sewage leaks in their complex. The residents also accuse the city of failing to enforce fines for code violations.
Conservative something-or-other Dinesh D’Souza tried the whole “Republicans are the party of civil rights!” argument on Twitter and got absolutely dunked on, repeatedly, by historians & writers.
In North Carolina, an open white supremacist is running for the state legislature, and was running as a Republican until the party belatedly withdrew its support last week. (I don’t know how his name will appear on the ballot.)
Daniel Radcliffe revealed in an interview recently that he has some very racist friends. So why wouldn’t he do something about it?
The Phoenix New Times named its seven best new restaurants so far for 2018, of which I can vouch for three: Roland’s Market (a collaboration between Chris Bianco and the couple behind Tacos Chiwas), Starlite BBQ, and Taco Chelo. I’ll try to hit Osteria before an AFL game in Mesa this fall too.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: arizona, climate change, links, longreads, phoenix, pollution, stick to baseball

Stick to baseball, 7/21/21.

Ice.

Klawchat 7/19/18

Istanbul app.

DC eats, 2018 edition.

Stick to baseball, 7/14/18.

Klawchat 7/12/18.

Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Exit West.

Stick to baseball, 7/7/18.

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