My fourth mock draft for the first round went up this morning for Insiders.

Keith Law: I’m tired of the excuses everybody uses. It’s Klawchat.

TC: Are there any teams that you feel fairly certain will select a player if he is there? Seems to be a ton of uncertainty a few hours out. Normally there are a few picks that seem cemented the day of the draft.
Keith Law: Nothing is cemented because 1) someone could fall to a team they didn’t expect to get a chance to pick or 2) a likely predraft deal doesn’t pan out, but I think Stewart to Atlanta, Adams to Texas, and Denaburg to Washington all are “very likely if the players get there” sort of picks.

Tom: What percentage would you place on the Tigers NOT selecting Mize 1st overall. Also, if not where is his floor (Phillies at #3?)
Keith Law: I go back and forth on this. Was all the smoke yesterday about them being off Mize mere posturing to get him to take less than slot? (Really, they should offer the slot for pick #2 plus $1, and he should take it, because he’s not getting more than that anywhere else.) I think they probably know who they want, and they probably knew that yesterday, so the correct answer is either 100% or 0%. The answer from outside, without actual information, makes it look like 50/50. So I suppose this is Al Avila’s Cat.

Rico Brogna : If the Phillies land either Madrigal or Bohm (seems they are most interested in a college bat) or even Bart if he falls, how quickly do you think each of these bats gets to the majors?
Keith Law: None is more than two years away. I’d guess any or all could debut late in 2019.

Tom: Hey Keith, where would you rate Casey Mize longterm compared to of Justus Sheffield, Brendan McKay, Bret Honeywell, Sixto Sanchez and Mitch Keller? (My first klawchat question – so proud!)
Keith Law: Ahead of Honeywell (hurt), behind the others.

Richard: On the topic of over-working pitchers at the youth, high school and collegiate levels… Am I off-based at thinking announcers and television personalities deserve a major portion of the blame? Guys like Harold Reynolds praising guys for being “gritty” or “team players” for pitching twice in a collegiate Regional or throwing 120+ pitches in a high school championship game. This instills in our youth that it’s noble to be over-worked, and there’s something “wrong” if you refuse this type of treatment.
Keith Law: Yes, it’s absolutely part of it, and a problem with having only ex-players in booths and no one with a sound front office or scouting perspective to offer.

Alex Failla: Has Pirates OF Calvin Mitchell regained the hype he had prior to his rough senior year of hs? He looks to be driving the ball to all fields again and has been impressive this year 200 PA’s in full-season ball as a 19 year old.
Keith Law: He’s hit very well and impressed scouts I’ve talked to. Position is still a question.

Kyle Huber: What are you hearing for the Pirates tonight? Any chance of one of the top five-ish guys falling to them? Still thinking HS pitching?
Keith Law: Click on the mock at the top of this page and you’ll see my latest thoughts (as of about 10 pm last night, although nothing has really changed yet) for all 30 picks.

Paul Park: Thoughts on OF Z. Watson at LSU? Chances he goes tonight?
Keith Law: Unlikely. Fourth OF type, I think after the third round but someone could pop him there.

Andres: Tranquility Base review. When? Wheeen? WHEN?
Keith Law: I don’t review albums any more and I said a month ago I didn’t like this one.

Andy: Mize doesn’t drop below the White Sox right?
Keith Law: If he gets to the White Sox, then there’s something seriously wrong with his medicals that absolutely nobody has mentioned to me or, as far as I can tell, anyone else who does this stuff.

Matt: Hi Keith. Any chance Indiana’s Jonathan Stiever gets taken before the third round? Thanks
Keith Law: I haven’t heard his name once all spring.

Mr. Patton : My son plays U6 travel ball, and I recently attended one of his practice (typically just drop him off). I stayed off to the side to watch but not interfere. I noticed his coach using language I wouldn’t approve of in-front-of and towards the players. My wife thinks I’m over-reacting, but I’m considering confronting the coach. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Is this a question of profanity, or of language that was derisive or harmful to the players? I understand objections to the former, but the latter is where I’d confront a coach – if he was insulting or demeaning players, or even bullying some.

Patty O’Furniture: You had Carter Stewart mocked to the Braves at 8, after sticking with the Gorman pick for quite a while – is there anybody ahead of ATL that could jump in on Stewart?
Keith Law: The Giants and Reds would be extreme long shots but have shown interest in him this spring.

Mike: Keith, what are your thoughts on Duke’s Jimmy Herron? Seems like people are down on him compared to earlier this year.
Keith Law: Extra OF type. Like Conine, he just didn’t do enough at the plate this year.

ScooterMcGavin: White Sox at #4. I’m worried that Mize and Singer will be taken already. Madrigal scares me a little, reminds me too much of Gordon Beckham. Is India or Bohm a better fit for CWS?
Keith Law: I think Singer gets there, although I wouldn’t take him over any of those three bats you mentioned. I think he’s more Carson Fulmer than Chris Sale.

Tyler: Is Colin Simpson any sort of frat prospect this year? If so, where do you see him going?
Keith Law: I hear the Alpha Betas have strong interest.

Joe: Any chance that the Yankees take Lavigne with their first pick? Seems like that would be a big overdraft based on yours (and others) rankings.
Keith Law: Sure, it’s possible – they may think we’re all too light on him. Cold weather bats are hard to evaluate, and Lavigne’s value is entirely in his bat, not his glove or legs.

JB: With neither Hankins nor Rocker listed in your mock, is the consensus that they’ll go on over-slot deals in the comp round?
Keith Law: Yes. Likely both, Hankins more likely.

Jo-Nathan: How much money, if any, would it take for Kyler Murray to sign and give up football?
Keith Law: You’d have to ask him. Even if I had that dollar figure – I don’t – disclosing it here could pose problems for the kid’s eligibility.

HH: How many draft-eligible pitchers are good enough to pitch in the majors later this year (even in pen)? How does that compare to the average draft?
Keith Law: I think Mize could, in relief. A few college relievers probably could too, guys like Mulholland way down my 100. Singer maybe as a right-handed specialist.

Frigga: i know teams typically draft BPA. However do they break the BPA down by position? Or is BPA just the player that will provide the most value either on the field or via trade?
Keith Law: Up top it’s BPA. Maybe in the fifth or sixth round that starts to break down and teams would split their pref lists by position.

Tim Ackins: Re: Heimlich. He fulfilled his legal obligations based on the sentence he accepted. Is it ethical to insist on placing further punishment on him that the state did not seek in their plea? Or am I too concerned about the difficulties faced by ex-convicts once they serve their punishments?
Keith Law: No one is insisting on further punishment, at least not around here. You can’t jail him now after the justice system has finished with him. I object to him gaining the privilege of playing professional baseball, on the basis of what he has admitted to doing, and how he put many scouts’ and baseball execs’ livelihoods at risk by failing to disclose the guilty plea last spring until he was outed.

Andrew: I keep reading reports that the Tigers are undecided on who they’re taking. Is that likely a bluff? I remember your review of Trouble with the Curve (shout out for convincing me to not watch it), where you eluded that teams usually know reasonably before the draft who they want.
Keith Law: Right, I think they already know.

someguynamedkenny: What are the odds Alec Bohm ends up being able to stick at a position other than first base long term?
Keith Law: Maybe 35%. I think he’s a better athlete than people realize from his body, but he’s a big boy for 3b.

JP: Not draft related, but what do you think about the Yankees potentially boycotting ESPN interviews because of a scheduling dispute?
Keith Law: I’ve never heard about this but I also don’t really do those interviews.

Chris: Call me crazy but I think Tigers would be dumb to take Mize. This is based on unpredictability and higher likelihood of arm injuries for any and all starting pitchers.
Keith Law: OK. You’re crazy. Any selection depends entirely on who else is available; if Mize, discounted appropriately for the risk of any pitcher, is still the best value available, as i believe he is, then you take him.

Jay: If Bohm and India are sitting at 6, which way do the Mets go?
Keith Law: I think India. But I also have them taking someone else over those guys.

Matt: Have you ever considered actually going to Secaucus or been there, if so, could we get a rundown on the fine dining establishments there?
Keith Law: I went to the draft two years ago. MLB & MLBN people were all wonderful to deal with, but there wasn’t any real advantage to me in being on site.

Robbie: At what point can I start to to be encouraged by the angels’ drafting capability? Do I have to wait until there is Major league success or should I at least look at the prospects they drafted last year and be excited they have added or kept their value?
Keith Law: oh, you can now, for sure. Much improved the last two draft classes.

Tortoise Joe: You mention Adams to the Rangers — there is a line of thought among some Ranger fans that drafting toolsy high ceiling athletes hasn’t worked for Texas, and so they need to start going a different direction. Is that a reasonable critique?
Keith Law: Adams is toolsy and high ceiling, but he has also shown some feel to hit already. He’s way better than Eric Jenkins.

Brian: How similar is Matt Liberatore to Mackenzie Gore? Are they similar type of lefties regarding stuff and potential or only similar in that they are left handed?
Keith Law: No, just that they’re lefthanded.

Chris: Saw you retweeted Wursthall this morning. you planning on making it out to the Bay Area to scout anytime soon?
Keith Law: I’d love to eat there, but I didn’t retweet anything from them. I was in SF in March but probably won’t be back this year.

Aaron C.: Appreciate your candidness on the challenge of putting out mock drafts. Since you’ve been doing this, has a team ever made a first round pick of someone who wasn’t anywhere on your radar?
Keith Law: Yes. Cubs with Hayden Simpson – not on my top 100, and someone had to remind me who that was when it happened, because the little I had on him was so bad that I had dismissed him from my mind. Same year, Yanks took Cito Culver, whom I knew but expected wouldn’t go till the 4th round. Rangers took Kevin Matthews in 2011 at the end of the first or early comp and he was another guy who wouldn’t have been on my top 200 if i’d gone that far. I had virtually nothing on him either; he was released after 2015 and walked almost a man an inning in the minors.

Neal Huntington: Who should I take if Liberatore, Winn Gorman and Kelenic are there?
Keith Law: They won’t all be there. My Big Board (top 100) is updated; I would tell any GM who called to take the best guy.

Joe: Hearing any possible locations for Nick Decker?
Keith Law: No, but he might go later today in the second round.

Brian: How many players in this draft do you see as being top 100 prospects by years end?
Keith Law: I think the historical average (for my lists) is about 13-14 each January drawn from the most recent draft. It varies more by MLB graduations than by the draft classes themselves, I believe.

Chris: Drew Parrish coming back after a 2 hour delay and ALREADY throwing 108 pitches is scary. How do college managers live in such a bubble?
Keith Law: There are few if any consequences. Now, if a Florida State recruit withdrew his commitment today because he saw how Parrish was abused, that would get some coaches’ attention.

Dave: Keith, lot of talk about the TCU coaching situation…Schlossnagle staying, pitching coach Saarloos may be leaving. How does that impact Kloffenstein and what are the chances he goes pro?
Keith Law: I’ve heard he’s a very tough sign. Shame if Saarloos is gone so soon – I thought he might be a good moderating influence on Schlossnagel, who has seen a lot of arms break down in his tenure there, and I think bears responsibility for at least two of them (Purke and Winkler).

EL: Can Bart play anywhere else but catcher (in case the Giants draft him)?
Keith Law: You don’t take him if you’re not going to catch him. Posey is 31 with over 800 games caught in the majors. His future at that position is limited now.

Chris: Is it just me, or is this draft weak compared to recent years, especially at the very top?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s weak up top, and I think it’s very deep in prep arms and outfielders, but it doesn’t have the slam-dunk names we’ve had in some recent years. I think it’ll end up a productive draft though.

Jimmy: What do you usually do during the draft ? Watch at home ? Do you eat a nice dinner while watching ?
Keith Law: It’s varied by year, depending on where I am. I’ll be home this year so I’ll write, tweet, maybe do a live video something, have a lovely beverage. I’ll eat dinner before the first pick though – roasted a whole pork shoulder yesterday so there would be plenty of leftovers.

Dan: How likely would it be for the Phillies to offer an overslot for Mize at #3 that’s over the slot for the first two picks? Does not having a second or third round pick make that any more or less likely?
Keith Law: Doing so would essentially require punting much of the draft, then. They don’t pick again till the 4th round, so they’d have to go under slot a few times and would almost be pulling a Ricky Williams draft.

Ralph: Why do college (baseball) coaches bunt so much? I’m genuinely interested in the thought process. Are they typically oblivious to modern baseball tactics? Bunting runners from 1st to 2nd in the first inning seems to be a ‘go to’ play for most teams
Keith Law: College and high school coaches who call for hitters to bunt in the first inning are secretly telling you that they can’t teach hitters how to hit, so they teach them how to bunt instead.

Jim: Is there any substance behind the rumor of Mize falling to three? Or was that just a hypothetical in your mock?
Keith Law: Not a hypothetical.
Keith Law: Sorry quick delay for a draft-related phone call
Keith Law: I’m back. That was interesting, mostly for yet another person saying he didn’t know what the Tigers’ decision will be at 1.

Freddy: What are the knocks on Carter Stewart? Seems like everyone agrees he’s mid 90s with a plus curve, athleticism and likely to stick as a starter. What are the negatives?
Keith Law: Prep RHP have one knock against them to begin with. He also lost a little velo at the end of his spring due to a wrist injury, not a serious one. I still have him at #2 overall on my board.

Dave: Keith, how hard is it to decipher what MLB draft rumors are legit versus what are smokescreens? Specifically with something like the Giants taking Winn at #2?
Keith Law: Bobby Evans went to see Winn. That’s not a smokescreen.

Chris: Any chance Lenny Torres hears his name called today? If so, when and by who?
Keith Law: Yes, after the first round. It could be the Royals at 33/34, but that’s probably the top of his market.

Jimmy: Where is Torkelson projected ?
Keith Law: To go back to school, since he’s a freshman and not eligible to be drafted.

Sean: How do you get new info today? Do you have insiders at specific teams who let you know, or do you just hear “through the grapevine” of scouts, reporters, and FO people who let info out?
Keith Law: Phone has been buzzing on and off all day.

Tim Ackins: I love Cal Raleigh’s bat. Any chance he can stick at catcher or is he bound for 1B?
Keith Law: Enough chance that I think he’ll be drafted as high as the mid-2nd by a team that intends to leave him there.

Carl: In a hypothetical situation, let’s say the Heimlich being an admitted child molester story wasn’t reported by the media, but a team doing its due diligence on him discovered it. Is that the kind of information that a team would share with other teams considering the severe nature of the crime and his own admission of guilt, or would whichever team discovered his guilty plea keep it to themselves and quietly remove Heimlich from their draft board?
Keith Law: I think that news would leak very quickly. In your draft room, you have at least ten people, maybe twenty-plus if you bring in all your area scouts, who’ll know that and see the magnet come off the board. There’s no way ten people in this industry keep anything a secret.

Mike: Do you believe teams are getting better at drafting? Are there fewer 1st round busts and fewer late round surprises than there would have been 10-20 years ago?
Keith Law: I think so. Some is smarter drafting, including using stats and analytics as a tool in the process. Some is not throwing 19-year-old Bill Pulsipher 200 fucking innings in one minor league season.

Dave: Keith, is deal-cutting by the Padres and Braves really going to drop both Liberatore and Gorman to the A’s at #9?
Keith Law: I don’t have either of those teams cutting deals with the players I projected to them.

GIO: Two part question – How does Bart compare to Zunino at the same point of their careers? Do you think Bart can be better than Zunino has been up to this point of his MLB career?
Keith Law: Zunino had more hit tool at the same point, Bart has more raw power and might be a better catcher (receiving, game-calling).

Jon: Any Andrew Benintendi in Travis Swaggerty?
Keith Law: No.

Nick: For weeks it seemed like the Mets were locked into taking India and now you don’t even have him mentioned as a posibility for them. Any reasoning behind this?
Keith Law: They were never locked into taking him.

Parts unknown : Which top prospect is most likely to end up being described as a “gamer” or being “gritty”?
Keith Law: Madrigal. 5’7″ 155 pound white middle infielder who isn’t a plus runner.

Bren Spillane: Could I be drafted tonight?
Keith Law: Unlikely, not a zero chance. College 1b in bad conference.

Nick: What type of power do you see Jarred Kelenic having as a pro? 15+? 20+? 25+?
Keith Law: Homers? If he hits enough to get to the power it’s 25+ homers.

Jimmy: Where did you have Mickey Moniak ranked on your big board when he went #1 ?
Keith Law: I think fifth? I said at the time I wouldn’t have taken him first – I had Corey Ray 1.

Brian: Thoughts on Madrigal’s size for a top 3 pick?
Keith Law: Short doesn’t bother me. I don’t know if he has the hand strength to make enough quality contact against major-league pitching. He’s short, but also somewhat slight, at least compared to guys like Bregman, who is short but strong.

Coach B.: I know you don’t get around to scouting this level, but are there any NAIA names to watch for today/tomorrow?
Keith Law: Not on my radar, but I’m certain there are such players for rounds 5-10 (tomorrow), which for NAIA is still a pretty good outcome. I kind of wish the NAIA would position itself a bit more as an alternative to the NCAA – hey, come play for us, use an agent, transfer without penalties, etc.

Dave: Keith, heard a lot of people mention Durbin Feltman as potentially the first to the Majors pick this year, kinda like fellow TCU pitcher Brandon Finnegan did. How likely do you think that kind of scenario is, and any idea who might be targeting Feltman?
Keith Law: If he goes, maybe as high as the second round, it’ll be like that – take him now and advance him quickly through the minors. Of course, both Burdi brothers were supposed to be like that, and neither has seen the majors yet around TJ … and TCU’s track record of pitchers in pro ball isn’t great.

Alex: Is Kyler Murray something to pay attention to today, or is he just a name people recognize?
Keith Law: He’s on my top 50.

Lilith: Kyler Murray: He struck out a ton this year, despite his improvement. Why is he so sought after?
Keith Law: He barely played in the last two years, and “a ton” is an overstatement.

Matt: I totally understand why you don’t think Heimlich should be drafted- and I agree. But if Aroldis Chapman can sign for $86 million, what’s stopping a team like the Yankees or Cubs (Chapman, Addison Russell, etc) from drafting him?
Keith Law: Nothing. If you have talent, you get picked. And I would guess at least one team would try to use his guilty plea and the scarlet letter on his magnet to sign him under slot – take it or leave it, nobody else even wants to draft you – and use that to sign someone else they like.

Dave: Keith, what’s the likely percentage that a top 5 college bat (like Madrigal or Bohm) fall to the A’s at 9?
Keith Law: Mize goes ahead and at least two high school players go ahead, I think, so there’s one scenario where all five go ahead and a bunch of scenarios where at least one gets to them.

Mark: Any chance the Padres take Murray at 7? Seems like 2 years ago everyone thought Quantrill was going with their second pick, but they took him at 8
Keith Law: I considered that possibility and you’re right – it could happen, as it did with Q. But I also think they feared Q wouldn’t get to 23, while Murray could very well get to 38.

Andy: One of a baseball players secondary responsibilities is dealing with fans, especially younger fans. I can overlook a player being an a-hole in general, if he gives my kid a ball. I can honestly say I don’t know how comfortable I would be with my 5 year old interacting with Heimlich.
Keith Law: Imagine you’re a GM or team President and you decide, after doing your due diligence, to take Heimlich anyway. Do you send him to children’s hospitals with other players? To in-store events where kids might appear? And if he does re-offend, are you ready for the PR backlash and perhaps a lawsuit? There’s so much to consider here for any front office that can even get past the moral questions around the selection.

John: The Phillies last 3 first round picks all look highly questionable. What do you make of their scouting department as a whole and their top guy? Have they just been unlucky? Also, please convince me they won’t take a middle infielder with no power at #3 if Mize and Bohm are still on the board. Thanks
Keith Law: I’ve said before I think their first round picks have been disappointing and their picks from the second round on have been much better, above average compared to other teams, I think.

Tom: If you could quantify it on a 1-10 scale, how big is the separation between Mize and singer.
Keith Law: The only way I’d take Singer over Mize is if you told me Mize had a current medical (arm injury, back issue) problem that Singer didn’t, and to the best of my knowledge, that’s not the case.

John: What’s stopping MLB from allowing full pick trading?
Keith Law: It has to be collectively bargained.

Travis: How high do you think Austin Becker goes? Does the Vandy commit scare some teams?
Keith Law: He’s going to school. I’d be floored if anyone took him in the top ten rounds.

Bill: How does Parker Meadows compare to his brother Austin?
Keith Law: I addressed that specifically in Parker’s writeup. He’s not as good as Austin was at the same age.

Jimmy: Do teams try and strike pre daft deals with leverage of bad market teams drafting right after them that a player would not want to go to ?
Keith Law: No, that doesn’t work.

Mark: Where would Hunter Greene have been ranked in this year’s draft? #1?
Keith Law: I would probably have him 1, although Mize, as a guy who’s further along and less risky than a 17-year-old pitcher, would give me pause.

Steven: Can Naylor remain a catcher or is he destined for the infield?
Keith Law: He’s not a catcher any more. Third base is most likely.

JP: whats your favorite place to watch a game in the Cape Cod League?
Keith Law: To watch, probably chatham, although it’s not great for scouting.

Greg: Regarding Simpson, can you think of another first rounder who was out of pro ball (non-injury/jail-related) after only two years?
Keith Law: Aaron Akin was the 12th overall pick in 1997 from a Kansas JC, and was out of baseball before the end of 2000. That’s kind of my gold standard for a fast washout.

Brian: Worst place (food/location/weather/etc.) you visited in your scouting destinations this year?
Keith Law: I did pretty well this year with that part of the gig. I mean, Florida’s no great shakes, but I’m never going to have a year where I don’t go there.

JR: you have a post-draft vacation planned? If so, where too?
Keith Law: Europe. Going to take my daughter for the first time and also go visit my cousins.

Thomas: If you had to pick one position player and pitcher you’re really high on and think the rest of the industry is sleeping on, who would they be?
Keith Law: I said in the top 100 I’m higher on Naylor than the industry (I think). Not sure I have a pitcher with a comparable gap – am I higher on Wilcox than most?

Nick: As a rare Yankees/Jets fan, should I be concerned about another Hackenberg potentially coming to New York?
Keith Law: If that’s a football reference, I don’t get it. But that kid’s name always puts Prince’s “Pope” into my head.

Ryan: Oh please do a live video, I will mute the TV and also maybe join you in the beverage having.
Keith Law: Maybe I should go to the liquor store first.

Matt: Is there a chance Tristan Pompey sneaks into the supplemental round or is he a 2nd rounder?
Keith Law: Yes, supplemental is reasonable.

Adam : In your most recent mock you have the Giants passing on Mize to save money to go over slot for someone later. The only way they do that is if they have an agreement in place with someone they have specifically targeted, correct?
Keith Law: Probably, although you can’t guarantee player number two gets to pick number two.

Tom: Re: Stewart very likely to Atlanta if he gets there rather than the previous connection to Gorman. Is that a function of your information getting clearer, an evaluation change in the scouting department, or something else?
Keith Law: Better information – which often means the team did something that put the information into the marketplace. There are no evaluation changes this late in the game.
Keith Law: (If there are, whoa boy, time to find a new scouting staff.)

Tyler: Any way mariners go prep at 14?
Keith Law: Any way, yes. Likely, no.

Ben: Who are the Boras guys in this year’s draft?
Keith Law: I can’t and won’t jeopardize any player’s eligibility by disclosing adviser information or revealing confidential medical information.

Dan: In a general sense, how do players become ‘below-slot’ guys? Do their agents just say, “let’s be honest, you’re not a top three talent BUT you can go at #3 if you take this underslot deal?” How do teams and agents/players determine whether a player is worth a slot bonus?
Keith Law: Advisers call around to teams to gauge interest in their players. Then if the highest-drafting team with interest calls and asks for a deal, you know what your best alternative is (BATNA for you fellow MBA dorks), and you can take a dollar figure that’s more than the next-highest team will offer but still a discount for the team that called.

Po: read you mock and loved it. My question is who SHOULD the A’s take if available
Keith Law: If Liberatore is there, I’d take him.

Carl: Recipe for the pork roast?
Keith Law: 6 hours at 275, another 30 minutes at 300. Used my standard rub for a smoked pork shoulder but the weather sucked so I did it indoors.

Jesse B: Can David Fletcher be an everyday regular at 2B for the Halos? Also, how legit of a prospect is Kevin Smith? Thanks
Keith Law: No on Fletcher. Not really on Smith.

Patrick: The Baltimore local reporters all seem to expect the birds to take a position play at 11, probably an infielder. Are you still hearing them on pitchers?
Keith Law: I’ve heard pitchers more than hitters with them all spring.

Jo-Nathan: Is Tim Cate better off returning to school for a senior year or do players lose too much leverage as seniors for it to make sense (I can’t think of a time where this worked outside of Mark Appel)?
Keith Law: No, he should go high enough to make signing worthwhile. Plus, Coach Penders at UConn can’t seem to stop mishandling pitchers.

Tim: Wouldn’t a correct change be Schrodinger’s Al Avila instead of Al Avila’s cat?
Keith Law: Well, for Al’s sake, I hope nobody opens the box.
Keith Law: That’s all for today, but we’ll do this again tomorrow when we have something real to discuss, instead of all of this speculation. I’ll try to do some sort of video chat tonight after the draft starts, and I’ll file a day one reaction for Insiders later tonight. Thanks again – enjoy the draft!

My latest mock draft went up this morning for Insiders.

Keith Law: I can tell just by the climate, and I can tell just by the style. It’s Klawchat.

John : As a White Sox fan, I’m been more focused on the minor league prospects than the big league results. I’ve heard some info on “Super 2” status for Kopech and Eloy that says that Kopech’s Super 2 date is in June and Eloy’s is in July. Is this information accurate and why would the dates be different?
Keith Law: That’s some incredibly bad information. There is no specific “super two” date – it varies each year, and we don’t know the date for year N until after year N+2 – but it would be the same for all players who currently have 0 days of service. I also think it’s really dumb for fans to worry about this beyond wondering when a player would be called up; it’s not your money, and in the grand scheme, unless the player becomes a star, it’s not much money to the teams, either.

GS : Thoughts on Twins prospect Kirloff? He’s raking. Mid-season promotion or do you wait because it’s his first season back?
Keith Law: The argument for promoting him is that he’s 20, and not young for low-A (not old, either). You might want to challenge him with high-A competition before the summer is out.

John : Thanks for “Smart Baseball”, I think I learned more from that book than my previous 30 years of listening to announcers! Luis Gonzalez (White’s Sox’s 3rd round pick in 2017 out of New Mexico) has been having himself a nice season down in Kannopolis. But he’s a college guy repeating Low-A. Should I temper my enthusiasm or is he someone to keep an eye on?
Keith Law: He’s 22 and shouldn’t be in low-A. He’s a prospect, but his stats this year are kind of worthless for evaluating him.

Greg Bird is The Word: Considering Hicks is a FA after 2019, & Florial is a ???, if the Yanks signed Harper, could he handle CF mostly full-time? If he still has a Mantle fascination, they could give him # 77 & sell him on playing that position. And throw $400 million at him, of course…
Keith Law: I think he can handle CF, but my question would be whether that would increase the chances of him getting hurt (covering more ground, plus he still plays like his hair’s on fire).

Chris: Any opinion on what Ross Stripling is doing? It only ~50 innings, but it seems it would be hard to fake a 30% K against a 5.6% BB.
Keith Law: Stuff is unchanged, but he’s throwing a lot more strikes. I don’t think he’s close to this good, because the stuff isn’t any better and not going to miss that many more bats, but if he’s throwing strikes at this rate (and thus not walking guys) with the stuff he does have, he’s probably a 3rd-4th starter.

Candice Bergen: I’m guessing CBS is praying that no old videos of me in blackface praising Hitler surface.
Keith Law: And audiences everywhere are praying they do.

TJ: Would you even comment on what round Heimlich would be on talent alone or is it immeasurable given the other very serious issues?
Keith Law: I think he’s undraftable, and will voice my criticism of any team that chooses to draft and sign him. I do not give a single, solitary fuck how good a pitcher he might be.

addoeh: Is there anything funnier in baseball, or maybe sports, than watching members of the bullpen sprinting in like an eight year old chasing an ice cream truck because of an argument between the two teams? Bonus points for the bullpen catcher in full gear running in. It’s sillier than a goalie fight in hockey.
Keith Law: It just prolongs the agony of watching the ‘brawl’ (that often is less a brawl than a show of something or other). If you leave the bullpen during a fight, automatic five game suspension.

TJ: How come there aren’t public metrics on minor league WAR?
Keith Law: I don’t think those stats are terribly useful for minor leaguers; we want prospects to show certain skills, and care about their ages relative to their levels, but a minor leaguer who posts a high WAR or wOBA or wRC+ isn’t necessarily a good prospect. Chase Vallot posted wRC+ of 140 and 136 the last two years in low- and high-A, respectively, but wasn’t much of a prospect at all because his hit tool is so far below average. He’s now got a 76 wRC+ in high-A with a Tebowesque strikeout rate.

Adam: Who wins a foot race between Buxton and Acuna???
Keith Law: Buxton is the fastest player in the majors.

Krontz: What’s the better Shane Beiber comp . . . Josh Tomlin or Kyle Hendricks?
Keith Law: Bieber has much better stuff than Tomlin.

BE: As a Tigers fan, how concerned should I be about Avila passing on Mize?
Keith Law: The industry is still betting they take him.

Mark: Do you have any intel on guys the Padres are targeting for later rounds (yes I read your mock)? Did they acquire the extra pick with that CF in mind already in mind?
Keith Law: I think they acquired the extra pick with a lot of guys potentially in mind. You can’t guarantee someone will get to your second pick, but waving extra money around might help, and it means you can then take a better guy when your pick does arrive. It wouldn’t shock me if they took someone like Hankins who slips on signability + injury concerns.

Nick: Is there a stat that factors in level of competition faced? Example: Clevinger facing Houston in back-to-back starts vs. Ohtani’s start vs. the Yankees being skipped so he sees the Tigers?
Keith Law: I know BP has listed aggregate stats of batters faced (so you can see the triple-slash line of a pitcher’s opponents).

James: Hi Keith, thanks for these chats. I can only scout the statline here, but would you say that Jonathan Hernandez is arguably the best pitching prospect the Rangers have (with Cole ragans out right now anyways)?
Keith Law: Who’s his competition at the moment? Ragans is out, Matuella has a 9+ ERA, Speas can’t throw strikes, Cody is out, even Crouse is out.

scott: Hi, Keith. how do we explain what is going with guys like Charlie Morton? 34 yrs old and seems to be getting better. is it a new pitch? something the Astro’s coaches do better than other pitching coaches? thanks
Keith Law: Changed approach in that month he was in Philly, and the Astros kept it going. Stopped trying to sink the ball, went with more four-seamers up.

Mark: How does the process of trying to get a player to “slide” in the draft work? Does a team tell the player they will pay them x amount of $, and the player then tells other teams that’s the floor of what they’d take?
Keith Law: Exactly. Don’t take my guy because he won’t sign for less than $2 million. Sometimes it works, sometimes Anthopoulos says screw you, I’ll take who I want.

Andrew: Thanks for all the work Keith, including the latest mock. I know you have Winn at 2 to the SFG, but what would you do if you were Sabean / Evans? Take Stewart because he’s your best player available?
Keith Law: I’d make an offer somewhat below slot to Stewart and Liberatore (my #3) and see who takes it. You do want to be able to go over at pick 45 and grab someone else of first-round caliber.

Krontz: If MLB expands to 32 teams, what’s your favorite setup then? Eight divisions w/ four teams each where division champs make playoffs and no more Wild Cards?
Keith Law: Worse. That will give us another sub-500 division winner.

Derek: Adam Eaton is heading on a rehab assignment and scheduled to come back next week. What should the Nats do upon his return? It seems clear that Harper, Eaton, and Soto are the three best bats and should play most of the time. CF defense would be a problem, but the extra offense more than makes up for it, in my opinion. Who of those three would you stick in CF? I can make a case for and against each one.
Keith Law: Soto can handle CF.

barbeach: Keith: Love the chat and the other posts–and bought and loved your book. Thanks so much for all that! Dom Thompson Williams on NYY High A team is a dinger machine early on. (I know, SSS) But is he someone we should keep an eye on?
Keith Law: He’s 23 with a .263 OBP since his promotion and ~40% K rate, so that’s a no.

Dave: How would you handle a situation like Felix Hernandez in Seattle. Guy is a Mariners legend, and locked into another year at $27 million, but is clearly hurting the team when he pitches. With all that mileage on his arm, he’s not going to become elite again.
Keith Law: Do they have a better option for his rotation spot? I may be forgetting someone, but if they do, then they need to just replace him.

Brandon: Would Mize rank in your top 50 MILB after signing?
Keith Law: Yes, my #1 prospect in every draft class has been a top 50 prospect when I’ve done the list in July.

Pete: Austin Meadows, Gleyber Torres, even Ronald Guzman … all showing a lot more more HR pop in the bigs than they did in the minors. Has to be the baseball, right? Also, is Meadows a star if he stays healthy?
Keith Law: Definitely the baseball – now we know something’s different. But Meadows was just not very good in AAA, and it’s foolish to disregard that and assume his 50 AB in the majors are the truth.

Derek: If you were a fan of a team that decided they were going to draft Luke Heimlich, what would your reaction be? Even knowing that there’s a chance that he flames out in the minors and never gets called up, my gut reaction would be disappointment and I’d be praying that he never gets called up.
Keith Law: I’d call the office and cancel my season tickets or say I’m done spending money on the team.

Michael: Hi Keith- I am confused about why more hitters don’t try to beat the shift by bunting or going the other way. Especially in a high leverage, late inning situation when you need baserunners. What’s the deal here? “Hit ’em where the ain’t”, right?
Keith Law: I’m confused too and have no answer.

Kevin: What’s the ceiling/floor of Cole Winn?
Keith Law: Ceiling is #2 starter because of control/command of above-average but not elite stuff. Floor … well, he’s a HS pitcher, the floor is that he never sniffs the majors, unfortunately, but I’d bet he does more than that.

Kevin: Who do you expect to be some of the overslot draft picks in the second round?
Keith Law: If you compare my top 100 to my mocks, any HS kids I have in the top 40 or so who don’t go in the first round are obvious targets for over-slot deals. Siani comes to mind. Seigler, Thomas, Scott, Hankins, Rocker could all go over slot in the comp round or second. All good prospects with strong commitments to good schools.

Justin : Did you watch the Americans? If no, any plans to?
Keith Law: I’ve never seen it.

Andy: I think it’s finally time for you to admit to your burner accounts. You’re actually tweeting under the name CJ Nitkowski right?
Keith Law: I’ve been trolling Lebron and the rest of you for years as Skip Bayless.

Joe Don: No question, just thanks for doing these. Best chatter in baseball. I’ll hang up and listen.
Keith Law: Thanks!

Archie: You mentioned that Madrigal is likely a sure fire big leaguer. How long do you think he will take to get there?
Keith Law: Late 2019.
Keith Law: Remember he’s probably still regaining strength after the hand injury. Same for McCarthy at UVA.

Steve: Hi Keith, do you think Jason Martin is a starter in Pittsburgh? He’s never not hit.
Keith Law: Extra guy. Limited to LF, don’t see the power to profile there.

MuellerTime: Winker to the bench – dumb move, or dumbest move?
Keith Law: Dumb developmental move. Would have helped his own cause with better performance, but still, this kid is part of the future.

BE: Reports are that Christin Stewart is making strides on defense. Can he play LF in the majors?
Keith Law: I have always thought he could play a passable if below average LF.

Santos: I don’t understand the argument in favor of Rizzo’s slide, or breaking up a play on purpose in general. If a player ran into a first baseman on purpose on their way through the base, everyone would agree that’s a dirty play, so why do some people think it’s OK to do that same thing, but use your legs instead? How is it different? The competition in baseball is not about physically overpowering your opponent.
Keith Law: I said on Twitter even if it was legal it was not acceptable. I’m glad MLB ruled it illegal, but now they have to warn him and then suspend him if he does it again.

Andy: Do any teams voluntarily pay minor leaguers more? I’m just thinking that if there’s a late round high school kid, not a huge bonus, but you’ll get 10k per month in salary may convince him.
Keith Law: Only minor league free agents.

Ryan: Are there any similarities between Nola and Singer coming into the draft? Believe you had Nola rated higher with his command and movement on pitches. Phils haven’t had much success with high draft pick position players. Read Gilbert could be a possibility.
Keith Law: There’s some delivery similarities, but Nola is better across the board – more flexible, better command, better changeup. I like Gilbert a lot but he’s probably a reach at 3.

JR: Anything you think MLB could do to better promote the draft and make it a bigger media event (assuming they want too)? I realize there is only so much they can do given a lot of the players being drafted are high schoolers (and even the college guys aren’t on TV all the time like their NCAA basketball/football counterparts) that the casual fan knows nothing about.
Keith Law: Trades. Allow trades. It’s so simple and no one will push for it.

Russ: Tirso Ornelas is acquitting himself nicely at for age 18 in High-A. Is he a potential top 50 type prospect down the line?
Keith Law: I think so although as a RF he has a high offensive bar to clear. I believe in the swing.

Erwin: What do you think of Dennis Santana? SP long term?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen him since March 2017, and the only scouts I know who’ve seen him didn’t see him in Tulsa, but we all had him as a reliever coming out of last season. Two pitch guy with lower slot. He is, however, a converted SS and relatively new to pitching, so maybe he’s something very different this year. I’m hoping his debut comes soon and not on Monday night so I can see it.

JR: Who do you predict makes it the MLB first from this years draft?
Keith Law: I have to do a column on ‘superlatives’ and that will be one of them. Mize isn’t a bad bet, though.

TJ: Do you think there is ANYthing suspicious about the resurgence of all of these Astros pitchers at the same time?
Keith Law: No, Trevor, I don’t.

Russ: Cavan Biggio’s breakout reminds me of Kingery adding HR pop out of nowhere last year. Do you buy Biggio as a regular in the bigs?
Keith Law: Where does he play? Kingery is a 7 runner and 7 defender at second. Biggio is none of those things.

Aaron C.: I’m sure there are much better examples, but can you help me understand why teams draft/acquire players (ex. Casey Meisner when Oakland got him) and then immediately tweak/change what’s ostensibly been working?
Keith Law: Nope, I don’t get it. I understand changing what hasn’t been working, and that’s a great way to find hidden value.

JT: The rumour or speculation was spread on Twitter that Meadows is seeing the ball better in the better light MLB parks. That sounds, well, like BS. How do you think the Pirates accommodate their OF?
Keith Law: That is … baseball pseudoscience? I am fine giving Meadows an opportunity but still don’t think they should give up on Polanco.

addoeh: How long before the draft would potential draftees and teams start exchanging dollar figures?
Keith Law: That’s already sort of started with asks from players/advisers but the serious stuff starts Monday.

Gavin: I know you don’t follow other sports, but how many current NBA players could you name? More than 10?
Keith Law: Lebron. Curry. Durant. Kevin Love. Westbrook. Isaiah Thomas (that’s almost unfair, isn’t it?). Irving. um … that Kristaps guy on the Knicks, because wasn’t SAS horribly wrong about him and I keep seeing it on Twitter?
Keith Law: oh, Carmelo Anthony.
Keith Law: I think I’m tapped out there.

Max: Weird situation with Vasil and thanks for your article on him. Makes no sense for him to opt out. Wouldn’t the concern of future injury lead him to believe that if he can get life changing money with an overslot end of 1st round deal, it might be worth more than going to college now? Also, what is preventing a team from trying to do this? Should every team be calling him to see what he says on draft day, in case he changes his mind and will accept such a deal?
Keith Law: UVA had another player, Brandon Neeck, withdraw from the draft too. Maybe the coaching staff has something to do with this? And maybe MLB needs to step into this process.

Stan: If you drafted Tanner Dodson, would you send him out as a pitcher, a hitter, or let him do both and see what works best?
Keith Law: Sounds like pitcher is the belief. No reason not to let him hit a little this summer, since all college pitchers are on restricted schedules their first pro seasons anyway, and see what happens.

Tony: When will Forest Whitely be ready for the MLB?
Keith Law: Later this year. Just came off suspension and still hasn’t pitched in a game.

Dave: Hi Keith thanks for the chats, I look forward to them every week. Thanks too for Smart Baseball, really enjoying it. He’s getting 13.4k’s per 9, giving up 2.6 walks per nine and has an ERA of 2.76 in AAA, all improvements from 2017. He’s also scrapped his slider and introduced a cutter. At the risk of scouting the stat line and relying on a relatively SSS, is Jalen Beeks more than just a guy?
Keith Law: He had the cutter last year too. His results are great, but all scouts I’ve asked have him as a reliever.

Juan Soto: Am I exceeding your expectations?
Keith Law: It’s been ten games. There are no expectations for a sample that small.

Jim: Keith, thanks as always for the chats. According to the Transactions page on ESPN, Minnesota “Traded RHP Phil Hughes, cash and the 74th overall draft pick in 2018 to San Diego for C Janigson Villalobos”. How is that draft piece in there?
Keith Law: That draft pick is the only reason the trade happened. The Padres just got an extra $800K in pool money.

Pat: Hoe much does spin rate RPM matter? Ie a 95 mph fastball, but one has greater spin rate. Does it matter more on breaking pitches?
Keith Law: Very high or very low spin rate on a FB makes it more effective. Dead-average spin rate and average velocity is a hitter’s favorite kind of fastball.

Ray: Is your position on Heimlich and other offenders that you don’t want them to be in a job that has influence over others or just that they should never have a meaningful job? I’m speaking more from the standpoint of what to do with rehabbed offenders that aren’t high profile.
Keith Law: I cover baseball. My position is that no baseball team should employ someone who did what he admitted he did.
Keith Law: (It’s also worth mentioning that the idea that every offender can be “rehabbed” isn’t well supported by science. I think it comes more from theology – there’s certainly a strong strain in Christianity arguing for forgiveness and second chances, but there are some paraphilias that just can’t be fixed, and that should play into our views on how the justice system and society should handle people who’ve committed such crimes. But for me to go from there to say that such a person should never be employed anywhere would be beyond the scope of what I know on the topic.)

addoeh: I’ll guess your NHL player list. “Crosby, Ovechkin, and, umm…, is Jagr is playing?”
Keith Law: Bossy, Potvin, Goring, Tonelli, Bill Smith, Trottier, Gillies, Sutter, Chico Resch!

Thomas: Your prospect work is second to none, but I’m curious if there are any MLB guys you’ve enjoyed watching develop this year? Anyone who has been a pleasant surprise for you? You must at least be happy to see Jurickson Profar getting some ABs.
Keith Law: Yep. Soler, Mazara, Snell too.

Santos: Jim’s question was how can MN trade a pick if trading picks isn’t allowed?
Keith Law: Ah, I didn’t follow. Competitive balance picks are tradeable. No other picks can be traded.

Cletus: Ryan Mountcastle an MLB regular?
Keith Law: Yes. Not sure at what position.

Orville Overall: Hans Crouse was out? I thought he was slated to join Spokane when the Northwest League starts up.
Keith Law: Biceps something-or-other, I believe. Spokane doesn’t start for 3 weeks, so he may be back by then.

Ryan: What if Heimlich got a full pardon from Trump, like Dinesh D’Souza did? Then can he play ball? Seriously, D’Souza – WTF?!
Keith Law: D’Souza, who helped out closeted LGBT students at Dartmouth and loves to repeat the conspiracy theory bullshit that Soros was a Nazi collaborator (he wasn’t; he was 14 when WWII ended). Twitter needs to just kick him and his ilk off entirely.

Justin : How do you feel about the way baseball is discussed on general sports show on your network? On PTI for example there is a particularly disdainful attitude toward analytics/wins and RBI are still the measures of a player…
Keith Law: I don’t watch any of those shows, sorry. I don’t think I’m in their target audience.

Jonathan wants to know: Please provide a comp for Jonathan India, please? Thanks!
Keith Law: I don’t do player comps, sorry. I find them generally misleading. It’s part of why I don’t do player tool grades either – they became shortcuts that people tend to focus on to the detriment of the scouting reports as a whole.

Jason : I know you were high on him prior to the season, but has Adell answered the questions about his ability to make consistent contact? Where do you see his ceiling?
Keith Law: So far, yes. Could be a superstar with those tools and this (surprising) contact rate.

Tom: Can Spencer Torkelson be a GUY, or is he just a guy?
Keith Law: Just a guy.

Matt : How often do you go to games in the Cape Cod league? I’ll be out there in June and I am deciding if it’s worth a one of my few nights out there.
Keith Law: I love the Cape, but haven’t been the last two years for various reasons.

TJ: Triston Casas – playable at 1b for a bit or is he a near term DH?
Keith Law: Fine at 1b, not good there, but not Vogelbach.

curt: Thought on Drew Waters from the Braves? Top 100 come winter?
Keith Law: Top 100? The bar is really high for that. I don’t see him anywhere close.

Gene: Keith, love the chats. I’m a depressed O’s fan and an English Comp teacher. I’ve always enjoyed your book reviews and wondered if you had any good banned novel title recs that I might incorporate into one of my classes. My students already read Faulkner, Atwood, Chabon, Morrison, Toole, Vonnegut, Hemingway, etc.
Keith Law: Color Purple gets listed often as a banned/challenged title. A quick google search tells me Grapes of Wrath is often challenged – maybe for the final scene? (GTFOH, people.) One Hundred Years of Solitude is an amazing book often challenged. Are your students too young for Lolita? While very often banned, it’s not actually explicit – it’s disturbing AF, but that’s part of its power.

The Great Alonso “Bohm”?: Are you a believer in what Peter Alonso is doing in AA at age 23 and if Bohm were to slip to the Mets, would they take him knowing they already have Alonso (plus Smith who is trying to play OF)?
Keith Law: I am a believer in Alonso, and Bohm would be in their mix but perhaps not their top choice. I think I can come up with six names I believe they’d take over him (which includes guys like Mize or Bart, who go before them in any scenario).

Chris: Do scouts look hard at level of opposition in minors? Like if a top prospect is belting all of his home runs off non-prospects, does that lessen his value? Or too hard to quantify?
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely.

Scott B: As a Red Sox fan, now living in Delaware, I was able to catch Salem this weekend in Wilmington. I came away unimpressed with what I saw. Any prospects of note that maybe had a bad weekend?
Keith Law: That’s a bad team.

Tom C: I spent too much time thinking about Molly Knight’s question the other week about who is the most famous current MLB player. My immediate thought was Jeter, which, umm.. Anyway, I went with Aaron Judge based on 1) plays for NYY, 2) hits home runs, 3) has really cool name. Who would you say?
Keith Law: I think Harper or Altuve. Altuve’s surprisingly well known … I run into people who profess they’re not fans of baseball but know him or ask about “that short guy in Houston” or something like it.

RW: Can an NL team draft Seth Beer with hopes that maybe he fits in at 1B or, wishcast on him in LF?
Keith Law: They can do that. There is no rule against them doing so. There’s also nothing stopping me from laughing at them.

Chris: Have you heard anything from scouts about Richie Martin? Is this just some random SSS, or has he rediscovered his swing from The Cape?
Keith Law: Guy repeating the level, plays 34 games this year, with 82 last year of awful performance. I’m not saying this year isn’t different, but the evidence before us should discourage you.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Are you a fan of Vonnegut?
Keith Law: Yes. I read every novel of his but the last one, I believe.

Jim: Hate to whale on the moribund equine, and can take this to the comments later, but the transaction notice doesn’t say “compensation pick” (as they usually do), and the 74th pick comes out to late second/early third round. That sounds like a regular draft pick, unless I’m missing something.
Keith Law: It is the last pick in the Competitive Balance Round B.

UGW: Let’s assume Harper and Machado both get 10 yr, 300 million dollar deals. Given that both will be entering age 26 seasons, will these deals be a net positive for the team in your opinion?
Keith Law: Yes. They may not fare well in the last few years of the deal (but they still might given how great those players are), but they’ll work out just fine.

mike sixel: Keith, do you drink Rye? If so, recommendations for mixing rye?
Keith Law: It makes a fine Rye Old-Fashioned. That’s about all I know about it.

JJ: Never been a huge fan of Vonnegut’s books, but his cameo in Rodney Dangerfield’s “Back to School” was spectacular.
Keith Law: Salvaged the entire movie for me.

Corey: speaking of the Boston farm system, other than Pawtucket as a solid true taxi squad but with few rising prospects , the system overall looks bad. obviously you want a strong farm but given how young + stacked with longer term players the MLB club is and will be for a few years, i shouldn’t feel that concerned right ?
Keith Law: Right. The system is down (yo), but two big reasons are all the promotions to the majors, and the trades that brought in Sale, Kimbrel, and, well, the ghost of Tyler Thornburg.

GIO: I know Swaggerty gets comped to Gardner by some, but Gardner was just a slap hitter when he first came up. I more see Kiermeier in the swing and the set up. What ‘ya think?
Keith Law: Right, Gardner came into power after he got to the majors (I think the ballpark helped, because he realized he could drop the bat head and almost golf balls out to right). Swaggerty is trying to hit like that now, and it’s meant more homers but a worse average and a higher strikeout rate.

Paul: Free case of Oreos if you answer my fantasy question. I bought low on Goldschmidt. Any optimism that he gets it back on track this year? Where do I send the Oreos?
Keith Law: Any optimism would be based on past performance; he’s not just been bad this year, but seems to be trending worse, as if something’s physically wrong with him (there is no public evidence of this, I’m just saying that’s how bad he’s been). I’m also wondering where you’re getting all these Oreos.

Chris: Isn’t the downside to teams trading draft picks, that we would see a lot of picks dealt to large market teams for salary relief (thinking about the Dbacks trade of Arroyo a few years ago..and that was before the Brain-trust arrived in Miami)?
Keith Law: Arroyo was traded with Toussaint to clear the salary, so that’s already happening even without trading trade picks. However, the argument that you broached is the one originally made in the 1980s to support banning trades of picks. The environment has flipped today where most low-payroll teams would much rather acquire picks than deal them, because draft picks remain the highest ROI way to add players to your system. It’s a screaming bargain when you hit on one, so I doubt any semi-competent GM is going to just deal away these picks on a regular basis.

Chris: What is stopping a team from telling Mize “listen we pick 20th, but we’ll blow our entire draft budget on you, and draft all senior signs besides you?
Keith Law: He wouldn’t fall that far. There’s only so much you can do, especially with a college junior, whose leverage is limited; he’s certainly not returning to school next year.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat. I will post yet another mock on Monday morning and then chat that afternoon to discuss the draft, which begins Monday evening. I’ll also be hosting the BBTN Podcast on Monday while Buster is traveling, so we’ll be talking mostly draft there as well. Thanks so much for reading and for all of your questions!

My ranking of the top 100 prospects for this year’s MLB draft is up for Insiders. Over at Vulture, my ranking of the 25 best mobile board game apps went up last week.

Keith Law: It’s just a change in me – something in my liberty. Klawchat.

Spencer: Corey Ray recent performance is reminding me of what made him so intriguing coming out of L’Ville. Obviously a SSS, but what do you think his ceiling as a prospect is nowadays?
Keith Law: Seems like an everyday player, but the chance of him being much more than that is very slim. I’m not sure who changed his setup at the plate, or why, but it cost him a year of development time, and he hasn’t totally regained what was lost.

Bill G: Hi Keith. Given the extreme shifting and the lack of offense, would you support a rule that forces teams to start infielders on the dirt? Seems like the “rover” in the OF is hurting offense more than stacking infielders on one side of the field. Thanks as always for doing these chats.
Keith Law: No, I don’t. One, I think hitters should be more comfortable dropping bunts or shortening up to push groundballs to vacated areas. Two, there’s some research (Russell Carleton has covered this) that the shifts are less effective than they first appear to be.

Jc Cuevas: Is there place in an outfield for a guy like Brandon Nimmo to start? Or is the dreaded SSS? Ty Keith
Keith Law: He should be playing every day vs RHP, and that was true on Opening Day. Of course, the Mets will probably sign Gorman Thomas instead.

David: How likely are the Phillies to maintain their current winning percentage over the course of the season? Also, your thoughts on Kingery’s play so far and what you would do with Crawford when he returns from the DL? Back to AAA or starting SS? Thanks.
Keith Law: They’re not going to win 60% of their games this season. Very few teams do that in any given year. Crawford should be the everyday SS.

Dan: Keith, what’s going on with Giolito? He’s shown flashes during his time with the Sox but getting concerned about his consistency. Anything to worry about long term or just a young pitcher finding his way?
Keith Law: He was great in March, and it seemed like when he left spring training he left all the gains he’d made mechanically back in Arizona. I don’t know if it was the cold, or some undisclosed physical issue (not an injury, but maybe soreness that led to a change), but he’s been totally out of whack all season. His velo is down and command is gone right now. I can’t see rolling him out there as a starter right now until they’ve reestablished his delivery.

addoeh: I see there are more high schools players in your top 10 big board than your mock drafts. Is the difference down to personal preference (maybe higher ceiling vs higher floor) or purely that college players may sign for lower figures? Or something else entirely?
Keith Law: Teams fear the risk of HS players. I get that, but I also think the safety of college players is somewhat overrated. Look at what Haseley and Pavin Smith are doing in high-A right now.

Harrisburg Hal: Do you listen to albums in order (tracks 1-X) or shuffle? I’ve been shuffling ever since i started to listen digitally. I feel like I’m in the minority when talking to others.
Keith Law: In order. I figure the artist intended that.

Todd Boss: What do you think of Tampa’s “opener” strategy? Do you think a team could really try to do an entire staff of relievers? Isn’t that kind of the logical end-game of today’s move towards high velocity short inning reliever focus?
Keith Law: I wonder if teams will respond to this by tweaking the tops of their lineups and eliminating any such advantage. I do like the experimentation, though. Tampa has been so short of starters anyway that they had to do something creative.

Jay C.: Keith, Given Austin Meadows’ impressive SSS performance, does he have a chance to stick w/ the Pirates when Marte returns? How would you project his overall ceiling now after a fairly lackluster minor league career…any changes from your initial assessment?
Keith Law: It’s 25 at bats. you might as well roll a couple of dice.

LexSteele: If you were running the Giants’ draft, assuming the Tigers take Mize #1, who would be your pick at 2?
Keith Law: That’s what my top 100 represents – my personal draft board, based on what I’ve seen (I think I’ve gotten more than 40 of those top 100 in person, the rest are from video + talking to scouts).

Andy: I fully agree that there is a problem with the justice system in this country. The justice system absolutely railroads people into pleading guilty in order to get them through, especially poorer minorities. There are many fundamental issues that should absolutely be debated and rectified. I just don’t think that a white guy who pleaded guilty to doing something untoward with a 6 year old relative is the hill I’m going to start that fight on.
Keith Law: I’m with you. The fact that he was even offered such a deal, with no jail time, is indicative of the privilege of his race & background.

eric: what would a good cardinals package for machado be? you think bader, knitzner, Hudson and helsley get it done?
Keith Law: That actually feels light at the top. It’s a lot of quantity, but I would assume baltimore would want a deal with a better headliner even if it means fewer players.

Andy: Can you imagine how badly the Padres would be doing without Eric Hosmer and his veteran leadership? I mean they would almost assuredly be in last place, competing with the Marlins and Reds at the bottom of the NL.
Keith Law: He actually hasn’t been that bad at the plate, at least – but it’s been irrelevant to them, and by the time they’re good, he probably won’t be.

Rick: Have you seen/ heard any updates on Haseley over the past month? Is this just a blip or has he possibly turned a corner after a rough first year?
Keith Law: I just got a report the other day from a scout who saw Clearwater and had nothing positive to say about the bats on the roster – not Haseley, not Moniak, not Gamboa.

Andy: In NBA and NFL draft circuits, there are a number of guys who rise in the draft based on they look in workouts. Their measurables are huge, but they don’t really impress much in game. Kelenic seems to be a baseball version. He looked good last summer, and now is looking good in basically workouts. Could this lead other players to basically work out for a year instead of playing in a less than rigorous high school baseball season that could expose actual flaws?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’ll ever be widespread, but for kids who play in weird environments – cold weather states, states without HS baseball or who only have it in the summer – it could make a ton of sense. However, such players lose out on the benefits of playing real games in a team environment, and scouts lose the opportunity to see how the players react to real game situations.

Rick: Just wanted to say I bought your book last week on Amazon and already finished. It was great. Thanks for writing it.
Keith Law: Thanks! I’m thrilled you liked it. It makes up for that alt right meanie who said he’d never read my “damn book” this morning.

Jo-Nathan: Any chance you move Vasil up on your board after his clean two innings?
Keith Law: Two whole innings? Wow.

Trixie: What is the funniest book you ever read?
Keith Law: Gosh, that’s a good question. Jasper Fforde’s books have really made me laugh out loud in a way that few other authors have. Wodehouse too.

Matt: Been watching Josh Stowers tear it up for Louisville this season. Top-200 kind of guy this year?
Keith Law: Top 200 yes. Interesting combination of a little pop, some speed, probably CF in the long term, doesn’t have the present hit tool of some of the other college CF in the class.

George R.: Fernando Tatis, Jr’s April: .177/.231/.333, BB 6%, K 33% May: .340/.427/.649 BB 10%, K 26% And he’s still 19 in AA. Can people chill out with the doom and gloom talk?
Keith Law: Yep. We do this every year. By the way, i saw Bloom from MLB is still killing the Padres’ system, including Tatis. I don’t get that at all.

Justin: Hi Keith, With HS/College pitchers throwing excessive amounts of pitches in games. What would be the reaction from MLB front offices if the kid decided he was done at a certain amount of pitches and took himself out of the game? ie looking toward his future instead of one game. Thanks and have a great weekend.
Keith Law: Teams would be thrilled. They know who’s been overused, and they often slide such players down slightly on their boards.

Matthew: You’ve previously stated that baseball is mainly just a job for you, and that your hobbies lie more in the other things you write about. If money were not an issue for you, which subjects would you continue to write about, among your many published interests (baseball, books, movies, board games, music, cooking, etc.)? Would you keep writing at all?
Keith Law: I’d definitely keep writing. If I won the lottery (which I don’t play, because lotteries are a tax on people who suck at math), I’d still keep up the blog.
Keith Law: I’m not sure I’d keep writing about baseball if it weren’t a job, because I would be afraid I’d no longer be good at it if I weren’t pursuing it full time.

Slidepiece: Just curious, have you ever participated in a fantasy baseball keeper league?
Keith Law: Not in more than 15 years.

Tim: Hey Keith did you get a chance to listen to the new Arctic Monkeys album yet? Very different sound for them.
Keith Law: The good news is that if you liked “No.1 Party Anthem,” the new album contains Party Anthems Nos. 2-12.

Larry: Would Gorman still be your pick for Atlanta?
Keith Law: Yes. Could also see Singer there. They loved Vasil before the injury; not sure they’d do that at 8 now.

Swag: Thoughts on Welington Castillo’s suspension and apology?
Keith Law: I couldn’t care less about the suspension. The apology was surprisingly straightforward. That’s as close as we’ve gotten to an actual admission.

Greg: Can you talk me into liking Nolan Gorman? Contact questions, no clear defensive spot. I just don’t know what makes him in consideration for top 10 teams?
Keith Law: He has the most power of anyone in the class.

Mac: Is Jonathan India in play for the White Sox at 4? If he can play 2B does he have a higher ceiling than Madrigal?
Keith Law: I think he’s probably on the outside for them but in consideration. By that I mean that he’s probably not in their top 4 (I think, it’s not like they showed it to me), so it’s very unlikely he ends up their pick.

Matt: If you were running the Jays when would you call up Vlad Jr.?
Keith Law: I liked Buster’s idea of calling him up to DH when they trade Donaldson. Right now, he should be in AAA, but they also should either make it clear to him he has to improve on defense to get a callup, or just move him to a position he can credibly play. He’s no better than a 40 defender at third right now and probably less.

WarBiscuit: Mize has seemed to struggled(for his standards) in 4 of his last 5 starts after yesterday and past his innings of 85(college+USA) already. Concerned? And could this caused him to slip slightly from 1?
Keith Law: Not concerned. He hasn’t really struggled either; the start vs Florida he was outpitched by Singer in the box score but looked much better to scouts.

Andrew: I’m terrified the Tigers are going to take a bat instead of Mize. Is this concern valid?
Keith Law: That they might do so? Yes. That it would be a mistake? That’s debatable. I would take Mize. I don’t have a pick or a budget.

Sal: Peterson, Kay, Dunn, Alonso…cause for cautious optimism for Mets fans? What kind of GUY is Alonso?
Keith Law: Yep, most of the healthy guys are faring well at the moment. I saw they put Dom Smith in LF in AAA, though, which is … interesting, and not in a good way.

Bret: Which Cardinal OF prospect are you buying long term as an every day player, if any…Bader, O’Neill or Mercado? I’m personally bias towards Mercado. Thanks.
Keith Law: Mercado has the most upside. Bader’s a regular. Still see some real swing and miss concerns with O’Neill. He’s also the worst defender of the 3.

Joe: When will Brendan Rogers be up?
Keith Law: Next year? I’m not sure there’s an impetus to get him up sooner.

Jordan: Nick Dunn from University of MD a first day guy, or return to school guy?
Keith Law: There’s an ocean in between those two options and he’s in it. Probably 6th-10th round.

Mike: Dennis Santana a major league starter? If so, more back-end or something more?
Keith Law: The performance this year would indicate starter and he has two pluses in the FB and breaking ball. What I do not buy is the sudden flip in his platoon split.

Bill: Love the chats, will finally be getting around to your book this summer. What are your thoughts on Shane Bieber’s ceiling?
Keith Law: Lack of huge stuff might mean a league average ceiling but the command is very real and should help him pitch well above what the radar gun might indicate.

Mark: Do teams emphasize certain pitches? The fangraphs Padres prospect list seemed to have the changeup as the best offspeed pitch, is that organization specific?
Keith Law: That’s been a Preller fetish going way back to Texas. He loved signing DR/VZ kids with arm strength and a changeup.

Alex: Was recently reading the UZR section of Smart Baseball – with how much shifting there is now, is that stat essentially meaningless for assigning individual credit/blame because the historical data is so different?
Keith Law: I believe UZR still omits plays listed as having shifts, but you’d be better off asking Mitchel on Twitter (he’s very responsive) about how he’s handling such plays now.

Mac: Who’s the guy moving up draft boards that surprised you the most?
Keith Law: Schnell. Power is real, good athlete for sure. Not a CF, big arm bar at the plate. Curious whether his above-average speed lasts – his body type seems more likely to settle in as average speed as he gets bigger & stronger.

Dan: Chances that Schwarber wins the Gold Glove? His #s are looking pretty, pretty, pretty good.
Keith Law: Defensive numbers in ~50 games are really not meaningful.

Greg: Any concern about Kyle Wright this year? Numbers are extremely mediocre for a college arm who was in consideration at 1.1.
Keith Law: No they’re not. He’s in AA – most college players are in high-A less than 12 months out of the draft.

Dylan Bundy: Why do the Orioles trot me out for the 9th inning of a 9-3 game??
Keith Law: I have no idea. Letting him go 8 at just over 100 pitches seemed fine. I’m sure they had at least one reliever who could get three outs without giving up six runs. Given Bundy’s history of elbow and shoulder problems, plus the way he faded last year after a few weeks when he was very good and worked harder, they should be extremely cautious.

Joe: Your Kepler vs. lefties prediction looks good so far, but do you think his numbers vs righties will improve?
Keith Law: Yes.

Aaron C.: So…of all the players you’ve ever scouted — who actually became successful major leaguers — who had the worst swing as an amateur/minor leaguer?
Keith Law: Pedroia comes to mind. Max effort, kind of straight uphill.

Marc: Listened to the rest of the CHVRCHES album? Overall thoughts?
Keith Law: I’ve heard five songs and none are good.

addoeh: Are the people who defend Heimlich that say “I hope I’m not judged on the worst thing I ever did” subtlely admitting the worst thing they ever did approaches molesting a six year old? I hope not.
Keith Law: It’s amazing how people will tie themselves in knots to defend the kid with nary a thought for the victim.

Ed: Hi Keith. A few years ago I made your Guiness Stout Cupcakes and everyone agreed that they were some of the best we’ve ever had. Recently, when I asked my wife what kind of birthday cake she’d like me to make this year (we have a tradition of making each other’s cakes from scratch), she said the best, moistest chocolate cake possible. After thinking about it, it crossed my mind to use the guiness recipe, but for a traditional 2 layer cake instead of cupcakes. 2 Question for you – any reservations about doing this? And if you did it, what changes would you make to the temp, baking time, recipe, etc. Thank you so much!
Keith Law: Drop the temp 50 degrees. Line the cake pans with parchment circles and then butter them. I think everything else would be fine. Cupcakes really are just mini cakes; the recipes tend to work the same way.

Joe: Heard anything about David Fletcher? The numbers are outstanding
Keith Law: The numbers are in Salt Lake, a great hitters’ park. He had a .316 OBP and .339 SLG last year.

Nate: Will Dwight Smith Jr. hit enough to be a passable everyday OF?
Keith Law: I would bet against it.

Kevin: Good move in your opinion DFA’ing Hanley to make room for Pedroia? Probably means playing time for Moreland and Swihart.
Keith Law: If Swihart plays more, yes. Hanley might be done. After a hot start he fell back to earth with a thud.

Aaron: If kershaw were to opt out after this year what kind of contract would you be comfortable offering him?
Keith Law: That’s more a question about his medical outlook than performance. I’d be fine going $30 million a year if the doctors told me they expected him to stay healthy.

Rob: Based on early season results, which farm system seems to have taken the biggest step forward and which has taken the biggest step back?
Keith Law: I don’t like using early season results to draw broad conclusions.

Adam Trask: It’s not the ball, so can we now blame climate change for the increase in home runs?
Keith Law: It is the ball, right? But MLB says they don’t know why. The drag coefficient dropped. If it’s not the ball, then what is it?

Walker: Any new food recommendations for your trip to Durham?
Keith Law: Had great meals at M Kokko and Luna.

Dr. Bob: The Luke Heimlich story just gets worse. Last year he said he took “responsibility for my conduct as a teenager.” But earlier this month said that absolutely nothing happened and they took the plea deal for reasons. If nothing happened, there was nothing to apologize for a year ago. If something happened, then he’s lying now. An even bigger red flag to me.
Keith Law: Agreed. This all feels like a publicity campaign orchestrated by a lawyer. Another team reached out to me in the last hour to say he’s off their board, so that’s at least two (with Texas, per Gerry Fraley).

Billiam: What was your assessment of Ryan McMahon coming up? Seems like the Rockies have yo-yo’d him around and not given him a fair shot to succeed.
Keith Law: I think he’s an above-average regular, but they won’t play him every day or close to it.

Tony: I know all the SSS caveats still apply, but has something philosophically shifted in Nick Pivetta that has turned him into a throw-in in the Papelbon dump to an actual bona fide mid-rotation or better starter?
Keith Law: He’s not a mid-rotation or better starter given his trouble with LHB.

Joshua: Does H. Ramirez contract vest if he accumulates his at bats with another team?
Keith Law: If someone trades for him or claims him, yes. If he’s released and signs a new deal, no.

SL: Do you remain bullish on Dominic Smiths long term upside as you have in the past?
Keith Law: Yes. But he’s stagnating in AAA now.

Benny Agbayani: You were leading the Nimmo bandwagon for years before anyone else, so kudos for that, but it seems you are less enthused than others now. Do you see any hope for him against lefties? Even his approach seems off against them.
Keith Law: He might improve vs LHB if he faces them more, but the Mets don’t seem inclined to give him more reps. It’s not ideal. I think he can be a half a star – a guy who’s so good vs RHB that, with the right platoon partner, they get star-caliber production in total from one lineup spot but require two players.

Rob: Thoughts on the new At the Gates?
Keith Law: A little predictable and less melodic than the comeback record or Slaughter of the Soul.

Sammy: Have you seen/heard anything about a Jeff McNeil?
Keith Law: He’s 26 in AA.

Greg: Did Denaburg’s recent outing mean he’s likely to sign now?
Keith Law: I would say it means he’s healthy enough that someone will try to draft and sign him. That’s not saying he WILL sign. I don’t know what his bonus demands might be.

Robbie: Do you think at some point the negatives of keeping pujols playing will finally outweigh whatever negatives the angels feel benching him (PR, embarrassment, “disrespect”, money) this season? Or could they be determined to go down with him on the ship? I feel like Moreno is specifically tied to him rolling out there everyday.
Keith Law: With Pujols reaching 3000 and Ohtani making all the headlines, they could probably fade whatever backlash they receive, if any, from releasing the guy. He’s toast.

Aaron C.: Rumors on the west coast that the A’s may be relocating their AAA team to the new Las Vegas ballpark. Can *anything* be done to make a MiLB park less cartoonish regarding offensive numbers it produces?
Keith Law: First thing I’d do out there would be install a humidor. Vegas is dry as hell.

Jeff: Brandon Nimmo now has a career 128 wrc+ in over 400 PAs—this Guy for real?
Keith Law: wRC+ is a great stat, but it doesn’t know if you’ve played full-time or been platooned.

Don: Can Zack Collins be a league average player if he’s not behind the plate?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but maybe he has enough power + patience to pull it off.

Matthew: A first round pick turns into an above average #4 starter. Is the pick a success because he is a regular contributor or a failure because of the low ceiling given the draft position?
Keith Law: That depends on where in the round he was picked. At pick 1, that’s a disappointment. At pick 20, that’s a win.
Keith Law: “Failure” is not a nice word for any player, but especially inapt for an above average #4 starter (so, like a league average starter).

Jo-Nathan: Are you planning to watch the new season of Arrested Development?
Keith Law: Probably. I haven’t read the NYT interview yet – I have it saved to read later today.

Eron: Folty taken a real step this year or expect him his numbers to start declining soon?
Keith Law: I’m buying it.

Bill: You had K. Hayes > Meadows preseason. I never saw an explanation. Care to elaborate ?
Keith Law: If you didn’t see an explanation, then you never read my Pirates farm report. Hayes is an elite defensive 3b. He’s still the better prospect.

Gore : If you can remember, how does Singer compare/contrast to Nola as a prospect out of college?
Keith Law: I remember very well. Nola had better fastball command and a better third pitch.

Pete: Profar seems to be coming on a little bit here. Do you think he could still be a star offensively? Or has his ceiling changed now?
Keith Law: After all that lost time I’m almost afraid to get excited about his little run of success.

Nick: So I understand that you dropped Alex Reyes in your prospect rankings due to the uncertainty around TJ recovery which makes sense. Now that he is healthy and completely dominat. Where would he rank among other starting pitching prospects? First ?
Keith Law: No, not first, not after multiple arm issues. He’s also dominating a level below where he’s pitched before.

Pete: Blake Snell looking like the real deal here as you predicted. Still a #2 in your eyes or potentially higher?
Keith Law: I’ll probably stick with that.

Jeff: What are your thoughts on Grant Lavigne? Where do you think he ends up going?
Keith Law: Day one. Maybe comp round, more likely second. I’ll continue filling in capsules on the remaining top 100 players without them over the next week.

Gest : Do you think the splitter is becoming more popular for American amateur pitchers?
Keith Law: I do not.

Lel: What does your mock schedule look like at this point? How many more until the 4th?
Keith Law: One next week, Weds or Thurs, and one on the morning of the draft itself.

Jon: So far a 6-man rotation has been working for the Angels. At this rate will Angels pitchers be less fatigued come September compared to other teams (i.e. Heaney, Skaggs)? Also Do you think other MLB teams take note and say “hey maybe this works” and implement it in their rotations maybe next year?
Keith Law: I think the experimentation – Angels, Rays – will continue across baseball. Teams are looking for better ways to get more from their pitchers while also limiting injuries/

Butts: Curious on your take on Griffin Roberts. Starter? Heard his change looked pretty okay yesterday.
Keith Law: His change was there in March too. It’s the delivery. There isn’t a starter in the majors who looks like that.

Mark: Did Mackenzie Gore ever have blister problems in HS? Does he project higher than a #3 starter?
Keith Law: He projects as a 1.

Mike: Brad Brach to the Nats for Y Antuna…. Who says no?
Keith Law: The Nats would laugh at that.

Estuve : What possible adjustment do you think there might be for pitchers to make to Meadows? He has looked great at the plate so far.
Keith Law: They could wait a minute.

John: I wrestle with at what point do we allow those who have served their time to fully reintegrate into society and what jobs do we allow them? Heimlich appears to be making it easy to deny rehabilitation given his reversal on responsibility. Where does one draw the line on acceptable jobs for them (and what does that say about the non-convicts who do those jobs) and how much rehabilitation it takes to migrate up the acceptable job scale. What’s the worst thing someone could have done and how much time served before they can professionally play baseball?
Keith Law: If you commit acts of violence, sexual or physical, against children, you don’t get to play pro baseball. It’s not really that difficult. There isn’t any rehabilitation for paraphiliacs.

Ed: I’m really curious about the 6’11 pitcher in the draft. Have we ever seen anyone who could produce such downplane? And what effect would you expect that produce?
Keith Law: We have – but nearly all of them ended up hurt and/or in relief.

Darryl: Due to medicals is T.Beck now a 3-4 round pick? Does Nico Hoerner have a chance to be an early round pick?
Keith Law: Hoerner goes day one. I’ve heard late first but I think somewhere in 31-45 more likely.
Keith Law: Beck … I don’t know what the medicals say. He’s a huge risk having missed a whole year with a back injury, but that’s about all I know.

John: Have you seen or heard anything about Jonathan Hernandez? Is he making a case for T100, or not until he shows it in AA?
Keith Law: You don’t get on to the top 100 because you had two great starts against the same (not that good) lineup.

Darryl: Does Senzel get the phone call before/after the ASB?
Keith Law: He’s out with vertigo. No timetable.

Boots Boots: Luis Alexander Basabe. Is he legit? Everything seems so much better this season so far.
Keith Law: He was also hurt for part of last year, IIRC.

Zac: Where would you rank Mize in the Tigers pitching prospects? I believe you have it as Perez, Burrows, Faedo, and Manning
Keith Law: He’s better than all of those guys. I really think he could pitch in a major league bullpen right now.

Jason: Chris Davis in the running for worst contract in MLB history? 4 more years at $23mil per and an OPS+ of 37 this year!
Keith Law: Ralph thought it was a good deal.

Adam: Is Sean Newcombs hot streak SSS? Not sure where his walk rate stands but the eye test says hes throwing way more first pitch strikes.
Keith Law: He’s really not throwing more strikes; he had one outlier start vs the Mets where he threw 70 out of 97 pitches for strikes, but the rest of the year he’s still down around 61%. Great stuff, below average control. Definitely someone you keep starting while he’s missing bats, but I think he’ll always leave you expecting more given how good the pitches are.

Bernard: Is there a current MLB comp for Eloy Jimenez?
Keith Law: Probably.

YABoySwaggyP: No chance that the White Sox dont take Madrigal if there at 4, right?
Keith Law: Absolutely a chance they don’t. Maybe a good chance they don’t.

Newt: Have you checked out Cobra Kai, the Karate Kid reboot with Macchio and Billy Zabka. Surprisingly, it’s really good.
Keith Law: I’m in the minority of folks my age, but I never loved Karate Kid and don’t share the nostalgia for it that my peers seem to.

j: Thoughts on Garrett Whitlock and/or Erik Swanson of the Yankees?
Keith Law: I was hoping to see Swanson’s next start for Trenton, but he’s in AAA now; I’m going to try to see him on SWB’s homestand after the draft (I can’t go tomorrow because it’s Date Night with my daughter). I
Keith Law: I’ve heard he’s changed a few things and I want to see it for myself.

Steve: Hey Keith, two years ago I bitches at you for saying the Phillies shouldn’t/wouldn’t take Groome number one overall. I will never doubt you again. Having said that, if you were in the Phillies organization, where would you like to see Sixto by the end of this year? With regards to stats and level in the minors.
Keith Law: Double-A is fine. I would love to see him stretch a little more out within games, but after he had some minor arm soreness in the spring they may not want to push him.

Jay: KC’s top prospects look good so far this year. Do you see any of Matias, Pratto, Lee, or Melendez as top 100 guys next year?
Keith Law: Lee would be today – he barely missed the cut. I’m not sure what you’re looking at when you say Pratto or Matias look good, though; both have OBPs in the .310s and Matias is still striking out at an untenable rate.

Mark: How close was Grant Little to making the top 100?
Keith Law: He wasn’t a consideration. (He’s a draft-eligible sophomore at Texas Tech, for folks who don’t know the name.)

Zac: Does a team draft Luke Heimlich?
Keith Law: Someone will.

Tom: Just saw Ashcroft perform last week – he was amazing. It’s too bad bands like the Verve can’t make it work.
Keith Law: Their one comeback album before they called it quits was good even without any standout singles.

Chimmy: Know anything about Trent Deveaux?
Keith Law: I do. As does everyone who read about him in my Angels org report in January.

Joe: Your insightful mock and earlier comments aside, would Kelenic be a reach at 2?
Keith Law: No, not IMO. Not my choice at 2 but not a reach. At 1, over Mize, yes.

YABoySwaggyP: Would Seth Beer be a good value pick for the White Sox at 46?
Keith Law: Yes, I’d be good with that, but I bet he’s gone by then.

Neil: I will use Vlad as an example here, but realise in his case this question may be flawed. But what do you do with a prospect that has a tool that is major league ready, but still needs to develop elsewhere. In the case of Vlad, are you hurting his development as a hitter by keeping him in AA where he is dominating, even though he still needs experience there for other parts of his game?
Keith Law: It depends on your long-term plan for the player – and you need to have one. If you think he can really learn that position, then you get him somewhere where he can work on it, with the best coach you have for that skill. If you think, as I do, that Vlad probably never plays 3b as a regular, then just call him up and make him a DH.

Alec: Why is it that most people ignore the existential threat that Donald Trump brings by being president? From talking to a lot of people, it is as if most of them have this built in idea in their brains that everything will turn out okay in the end. I think this stems from religion, but it is scary wherever it stems from.
Keith Law: I see, at best, a decade of trying to undo the damage done just in the last eighteen months. And it could be MUCH worse.

DaveAlden53: The Dodgers lead the NL West in run differential and are back to within 3.5 games of the lead. Is the ship righted or is it still leaking below the waterline from injuries?
Keith Law: Can’t it be both? I think it’s kind of both.

Jordan: Should I take the significantly K lower rate from Austin Beck as a sign of his progress?
Keith Law: It’s lower, and that’s good, since he seemed like a guy who might punch out like crazy with the jump to full-season ball.
Keith Law: BTW, Jordon Adell’s contact rate in his first month-plus in full-season ball has been amazing. No matter what else he did, I figured he’d swing and miss a lot more.

JaKob: Hey Keith, do teams track the amount of pitches thrown opposed to the number of actual innings they throw.. Seems like the # of innings could be skewed for a guy that labors through innings and throws say 100 pitches in a 5 inning game.. He would be getting more work than a guy that averages 80 pitches per inning (however, it’d appear they pitched the same amount if you just looked at IP)
Keith Law: Of course they do.

Pat D: Keith, I’ve said before I’m not on Twitter for any number of reasons. Lately when I’ve read your Twitter feed, I’ve been filled with notions of joining Twitter just to argue with people who comment on yours (all due respect, stick to baseball guy comes to mind). Please reassure me that such an action would be a very silly thing to do.
Keith Law: Twitter is essential to my job and my career as a whole. It is also a massive source of aggravation, especially since they still don’t take their own policies on harassment, abuse, or copyrights seriously at all.

Kevin: Where would Tirso Ornelas go in this draft? Love his swing
Keith Law: Back of the first.

PhilW: Keith – have you had a chance to see Chris Paddack pitch at Lake Elsinore? Seems to be fully recovered from TJ and putting up ridiculous K/BB ratios. Does he have a chance to move way up the prospect rankings or are there any factors limiting his ceiling?
Keith Law: I saw him throw a sim game in March and raved about him then.

Greg: I get that Gorman’s power is the reason he’s in the top 10. But that’s the only thing he does well, right? Is that really worthy of a top 10 pick?
Keith Law: He’s not a slug; he’s a decent athlete who could probably become a solid enough defender at third with work. You’re really underrating him.

Jordan: Does Virginia ruin good prospects?
Keith Law: Pitchers, yes.

Paul: Are you a believer in the Mets Peter Alonso, if so, why not shift him to LF like the Phillies have done with Hoskins and leave 1B to D. Smith who is the better fielder at 1B?
Keith Law: Have you ever laid eyes on Alonso? Smith is the better defender but that doesn’t mean you can just put Alonso wherever you want to.

Moe Mentum: If you’re a prospective college student who is undecided on a major, is an Ivy League school a good or bad place to “figure it out”?
Keith Law: I can only speak to Harvard, and it’s a terrible place for that. We had to declare at the end of our freshman year, and I certainly wasn’t ready at that point.

Brian: Being on below average team in a below average conference is killer for a prospect. Owen Miller of Illinois State had a fantastic year and he is nowhere to be found on any prospect lists. Similar to how Paul Dejong was overlooked.
Keith Law: Dejong wasn’t overlooked. He went in the 4th round. But yes, playing bad competition hurts your stock, and Miller hasn’t posted a good walk rate or shown any power in a really bad conference this year.

Roger: Since you are higher than the industry on Noah Naylor, what do you think his ceiling could be if everything clicks? Perhaps a Devers type?
Keith Law: Nothing at all like Devers. I think Naylor’s an above-average regular at third who hits for high average with some pop and value on the bases. Devers is a fucking monster.

Tom: What do you think of Spencer Torkelson? Can he be a guy?
Keith Law: Not really – not like the HR total would imply, at least.

Dan: Most likely to fall in the draft due to signability concerns?
Keith Law: Cecconi would have gone top 10-15 if he’d been healthy & was signable up there.

Rum Guy: Knowing you’re a rum guy, you recommend dark & stormy or what else?
Keith Law: That’s fine if you have a blended dark rum. Better rums are for sipping neat.

Cletus: How much of Giolito’s struggles are related to the Nats’ changing his mechanics, and how much is he just “not the guy the scouting report claimed 4 years ago” ?
Keith Law: He was that guy in March. If his velocity wasn’t back at that point, then your snark might have a kernel of truth to it.

UGW: Jakson Reetz finally becoming a *guy*? Still just 22.
Keith Law: I was a big fan out of the draft, but I saw him here two weeks ago and I don’t think so. It’s just 100 PA, and it’s really all walks – he’s working the count but the impact isn’t there.

Alec: Thoughts on Tomi Lauren incident?
Keith Law: She’s awful. I think throwing water on her just feeds her victim complex. And I don’t know what it accomplished.

PD: Where does Moniak rank in the all time #1 draft busts?
Keith Law: He’s 20. Let’s hold off on that, shall we?
Keith Law: OK, sorry I can’t get to more questions – there are hundreds unanswered in the queue – but I do have a few other things to do today and am hoping to take most of tomorrow off. Thank you as always for reading. Stay tuned for another mock next week, either Wednesday or Thursday (please don’t ask me Weds where it is, it’ll run whenever my editors want to run it), and one more on draft day. I’ll also tweet/post to FB when I add more notes to the top 100. Have a safe Memorial Day weekend!