The Other Side of Hope.

Note: I’m on vacation at the moment and thus not checking email or social media. I’m still writing a little, though, because I feel better when I do.

I only have a few 2017 movies I missed and still want to catch, including Israel’s Oscar submission Foxtrot (which made the shortlist but not the final five), but since I’m traveling abroad at the moment a few films that haven’t been released digitally in the US are suddenly available to me. One of those is 2017’s The Other Side of Hope, a really weird-ass Finnish film with a stark message about humanism and the European migrant crisis along with some of the strangest cinematography and editing I’ve ever seen. And that’s before we even talk about the sushi scene.

The film is barely 95 minutes outside of the credits, and the two main characters Waldemar Wikström and Khaled Ali don’t even meet until about an hour into the story. Wikström is an unhappy, apparently affect-less shirt salesman who sells his entire stock, takes his winnings to an illegal poker room to grow them exponentially, and then invests the bulk of it in a failing restaurant with the most incompetent staff you could possibly imagine. Khaled is a Syrian refugee who first appears in a pile of soot or dirt, applies for asylum, and enters the Finnish refugee system, which is depicted here as arbitrary and capricious. It is only when Khaled’s application is denied that fate throws him into Wikström’s path and the dour restaurateur decides to help the Syrian try to stay in the country illegally and eventually be reunited with his missing sister.

The story itself is straightforward if a bit unrealistic at several points – especially anything around the restaurant, which can’t possibly exist with the three stooges running it, including the laziest cook on the planet, the dumbest doorman on the planet, and a waitress who might be the most competent of the three simply because she doesn’t do anything. It’s the way the film is shot that is so jarring; if I didn’t know this was the work of Finnish director Aki Kaurismäki, I would wonder if this was the work of a precocious film student. Kaurismäki, who also directed 2011’s Le Havre has said this will be his last film, has a quirky, minimalist visual style that isn’t much more expansive with dialogue, much of it delivered drily to the point of atonality. That makes the Wikström plot line kind of hard to appreciate until Khaled shows up, since the refugee story unfurls with more emotion, mostly from Khaled telling his own history since he before he left Aleppo and from the friendship he forges with fellow asylum seeker Mazdak. There are weird, lingering shots of still faces and background items. People line up to talk to each other as if in a marching band, and often speak to each other at an obtuse angle that looks completely unnatural, using a flat tone and rarely expressing any emotion – no one cries in the film, and no one laughs.

Once the two plots unite, however, the movie takes a sudden turn towards deadpan humor, some of it extremely funny – including the aforementioned sushi scene, as Wikström attempts to turn the failing eatery into a Japanese restaurant, with preposterous results – even as Khaled’s safety is in danger both from Finnish authorities and from a group of neo-Nazis who attack him more than once on the street. The Finnish people generally come off as kind and open in the movie, despite the few outright racists running around, while the government itself comes off as heartless and ineffectual. The encounter with Khaled seems to light a spark of humanity in Wikström, and maybe even in one of the other employees (not the cook, who appears unable to boil water), but any hope there might be in the film comes from individuals, not form the institutions that, in theory, exist to help such people who have found no help from anyone else.

Incredibles 2.

Incredibles 2 comes almost fifteen years after the first installment’s release, but takes place immediately after the events of the previous film – literally, as we see Mr. Incredible & his family fighting the Underminer (John Ratzenberger making his obligatory appearance), which is how the first movie ended. That sets off a new story that bears a lot of resemblance to the original but flips the script so that Elastigirl is now the superhero out fighting crime, while Mr. Incredible turns into Mr. Mom and has to feed the kids, help Dash with his math homework, navigate Violet’s first foray into dating, and deal with Jack-Jack’s hitherto unknown array of spontaneously-appearing superpowers. It is just as good as the first movie, but without the boost the first movie got from being new. We know all these characters and we know how their world operates. The magic of meeting them all for the first time is now replaced by the comfort of seeing all the familiar faces and places and hearing those same voices (“daaaaahlink”) after so many years away.

The movie forks early on into two subplots that, of course, will rejoin near the end so someone can save the day – and really, if you can’t figure out where all this is going, you haven’t watched a Pixar movie before. Winston Deaver (Bob Odenkirk) is a communications tycoon, something Frozone explains to us in a clumsy aside worthy of an SVU episode, and a longtime fan of superheroes, just as his father was. He and his sister (Catherine Keener) have a plan to make supers legal again by launching a PR campaign around Elastigirl, putting a camera in her uniform and then letting the public see just what good work she’s doing fighting crime. She gets an opportunity to do so in suspiciously short order, saving a brand-new monorail from total disaster, which introduces her to a new villain, the Screenslaver, who says we’re all spending too much time looking at our phones (duh) so he’s going to cause chaos to wake us all up (good luck with that).

* I kept trying to figure out what the pun in his name might be, since its sounds like “winst endeavor” every time anyone says it. Google tells me “winst” is the Dutch word for profit, but of course it’s pronounced “vinst,” and that’s a long way to go for a pun anyway.

Meanwhile, on the home front, Mr. Incredible learns that parenting is hard. Some of the jokes are a little too familiar – yes, I’ve been through the new math versus old math thing, and still think the way my daughter’s school teaches long division is dumb – but most are at least funny, notably the sight gags. But it’s Jack-Jack who steals pretty much every scene he’s in. His numerous superpowers, a few of which were previewed in his fight against Syndrome (who, fortunately, does not magically re-appear in this film) at the end of the first movie, are pretty funny on their own. He also ends up in a fight scene with a tenacious raccoon that is by far the movie’s best sequence, busting out all of his powers and flabbergasting his sleep-deprived father – who, of course, decides not to tell Elastigirl about any of this while she’s out saving the world and trying to convince the public to make supers legal again.

The problem with Incredibles 2, other than the lack of newness – there are some new supers but they’re not that interesting, except maybe Void (Sophia Bush), who needed more to do – is that the villain is meh. You’ll probably figure out who it is fairly quickly, and then you’ll spend the rest of the film trying to figure out the villain’s motivation, which is not terribly convincing, and certainly doesn’t do enough to justify the plan to make supers illegal on a permanent basis. The exposition required to get to that point gives the film its one slow-down moment, and it’s not sufficiently credible to explain everything that the villain has done or is about to do.

The resolution, however, is a blast, literally and figuratively, with Jack-Jack again playing a critical role, as he and the family make use of his powers and his growing ability to control them. Brad Bird, the director and writer of both Incredibles movies, reprises his role as E in another fantastic sequence where she bonds with Jack-Jack (and, of course, makes him a new superhero costume). Even the ending leaves it open so that if they do decide to make this a trilogy, Bird can write the script right from the moment where the family takes off to go stop another crime. It’s very good, almost as good as the first one, but it could have been tighter.

The Pixar short film that airs before this – after the seven trailers, one of which was for Christopher Robin and five of which were for movies you couldn’t pay me to see – was Bao, a twisted, funny, and very sweet story about being a parent and letting go. The first ever Pixar short directed by a woman, Bao gives us a wife who makes exquisite xiao long baozi, the steamed dumplings that look a bit like a Hershey’s kiss in its wrapper – or, as it turns out, a lot like a little head, as one day the woman starts to bite into one of her dumplings only to have it cry out like a baby, sprout arms and legs, and then grow like a child. Eventually, the little bao starts to grow up and become a teenager and then a young adult who brings home a fiancée – blonde, and definitely not Asian – which really pushes mom over the edge. There’s one slightly demented scene in the short, which I thought was hilarious, but the end will have almost any parent in the audience tearing up. I know opinions on Bao are mixed but I think it’s one of their best shorts ever.

Stick to baseball, 6/16/18.

My one piece for Insiders this week looked at which teams just drafted their new #1 prospects, along with two teams that probably just drafted their new #2 prospects (although it’s debatable in both cases). I also held a Klawchat on Thursday, which will be the last until July because I’m going on vacation.

I spoke to John Conniff at MadFriars about the Padres’ draft and the state of their rebuild.

I’ll be at Politics & Prose in Washington DC on July 14th, with my friend Jay Jaffe, to discuss our respective books (Smart Baseball and The Cooperstown Casebook) and all things baseball. I also have a tentative signing set up at Silver Unicorn Books in Acton, Massachusetts, for July 28th, so stand by for more details.

And now, the links…

Crosstalk.

I adore the prose of Connie Willis, the brilliant and prolific American novelist whose Oxford time-travel stories include some of my favorite sci-fi novels, including To Say Nothing of the Dog, Doomsday Book, and the diptych Blackout and All Clear, which as a group won three Hugos, two Nebulas, and two Locus awards. She has, however, written other speculative fiction outside of the Oxford universe (which began with “Fire Watch,” a short story that also won the Hugo-Nebula parlay), including the light novel Bellwether and, most recently, the 2016 novel Crosstalk, which builds an entire comedy of errors on a single technological twist while also prodding questions about just how much we really want to connect to other people.

Bridget “Briddey” Flanigan is the very lucky protagonist, a rising employee of mobile phone manufacturer CommSpan who happens to be engaged to the extremely desirable bachelor and top executive Trent, who then convinces her to get an EED, a neural implant that is supposed to allow two people with a strong emotional connection to feel each other’s emotions even more potently. Her fiancé is in a terrible rush to have the procedure done, and Briddey agrees to it even though her family members warn her not to do so, as does the eccentric programmer C.B., who works at CommSpan in a dungeon-like basement office. When she has the implant, however, she finds that she’s suddenly telepathic, and the first voice she hears isn’t Trent’s, leading to a series of misadventures around trying to stay afloat amidst the deluge of voices in her head, to avoid letting Trent know what’s going on, and, hardest of all, to keep anything private from her unbelievably intrusive family.

Figuring out how Crosstalk would end was the least of its pleasures – it’s obvious she’s going to end up with someone other than Trent, and I thought it was obvious what side character was pulling many of the strings throughout the book – but, as with so many Willis novels, the fun is in the journey. She has a classic comic novelist’s knack of creating side characters who are exaggerated just to the edge of realistic, like Briddey’s sisters, both of whom classify anything as an emergency, one of whom is referring to her awful dating choices while the other is convinced that her daughter Maeve is into everything from Disney princesses to online terrorism. (She’s mostly just watching zombie movies.) They’ll exasperate you as they exasperate Briddey – and I often wondered why she even talks to her great-aunt, who seems to have less respect than anyone for Briddey’s privacy – but they’re all just slightly embellished versions of people you probably know in your own life, and watching her evasive maneuvers provides a good chunk of the book’s humor.

Willis can craft a clever mystery as well, and in all of her novels she tends to reveal the secrets of the main plot very gradually, which works extremely well in the time travel stories, but a bit less so here because she has characters who know the truth deliberately holding it back from Briddey. The EED doesn’t make everyone telepathic, or even close, so why does Briddey become so after the surgery? Why does she hear that one other character first, even though that person hasn’t had an EED? Once the specific character trait in question is revealed, it’s easy to figure out who’s pulling many of the strings and to walk all the way back to the first chapter to understand certain characters’ motivations, but I also left with the sense that Briddey herself had a right to know what was happening to her. Several people who profess to care about her don’t share what they know, and she’s left worse off until they come clean. That’s not a factor in the Oxford novels, where something generally goes wrong with the time travel mechanism and no one, not even the Professor running the program, can figure out why.

The time-travel novels and even the much lighter Bellwether all sucked me completely into their worlds, because Willis writes so well – like P.G. Wodehouse and Kingsley Amis with a dash of Jane Austen thrown in – and because she creates so many three-dimensional characters in all of her books. Crosstalk is a half-grade down for me, because of the issue with characters not telling Briddey what they know, and because the moral and philosophical questions Willis seems to explore here don’t feel very fresh even two years after the book’s publication. We’re all online too much if we’re online at all. We’re replacing personal connections with digital ones, at apparent risk to our emotional well-being. Willis takes that to its logical extreme, that two people who are glued to their devices decide to make their romantic relationship a direct, digital one instead. It was probably a risk Willis knew she was taking while writing the book, but reality has raced forward to the point where the book seems like a debate we might have had three years ago, replaced today by so many more social media worries and changes to how we all communicate with each other (or fail to do so) instead. It’s worth reading, because Willis is such a fun writer, but I would rate it at the bottom of the novels I’ve read from her so far.

Next up: Still reading Flannery O’Connor’s Wise Blood.

Klawchat 6/14/18.

My latest Insider post looked at which teams just drafted their new #1 prospects.

Keith Law: You look good when your heart is on fire. Klawchat.

DJ: Is O’ neil Cruz an infielder? Top 100 guy this time next year?
Keith Law: I highly doubt he plays anywhere on the dirt other than first base, and I do not think he’s a top 100 guy this time next year.

Kevin S.: Tim Tebow has struck out, popped up or hit a ground ball in a full two-thirds of his plate appearances this season. Can we please stop talking about him being a league-average hitter in AA or saying that he nearly projects as a major league reserve player, as BP recently did? Just stop the madness.
Keith Law: Every time he has a hot weekend, there’s a spate of crap articles saying he’s actually not awful, but no credible prospect outlet has ever fallen for this. He still has one of the highest strikeout rates of any full-season player this year – and nearly everyone above him is way younger than he is. (Pity poor Gareth Morgan.) But the Mets are going to call Tebow up, because that is what the owners want to do.

Tom: Steamer has Juan Soto as the 13th best hitter in the majors RoS by wOBA, sandwiched between Judge and Donaldson. Is that extremely optimistic or do you think Soto is already capable of that? Does he even keeping playing everyday with Eaton? I, personally, don’t see how he couldn’t.
Keith Law: Projection systems can only use the data that are available, and Soto has under 400 pro PA above rookie ball, total. I doubt any system would be reliable working off such a tiny sample of data on a player.

John: What are some college programs that treat their pitchers the right way? We tend to hear only about the bad ones.
Keith Law: Florida, Vandy, and LSU all come to mind right away. There are some smaller ones that just don’t get press … Nate Pearson was very well handled at the College of Central Florida, but of course that’s not a school you will hear about unless they have a top prospect.

Donald: Obviously Max Muncy isn’t this good, but can he be an above average (or even average) everyday player? The eye seems great, and he lifts the ball.
Keith Law: An average player, sure. I don’t think he’s going to sustain a 46% hard-hit rate (via Fangraphs), which would put him right outside the top 10 in baseball if he qualified.

addoeh: Do you think Jonathan India will pass Brian Jordan as the best player with a country for his last name? To be honest, I haven’t done a lot of research on this, only checking Ricky Jordan, Mark Portugal, and Al, Derek, and Greg Holland.
Keith Law: I can’t believe you’d diss Tommy Burkina Faso like that.

Rob: Thoughts on Tyler Stephenson’s season? Does he have a chance to be a top 100 prospect?
Keith Law: If he’s a catcher, he’s a top 100 prospect. I would say the majority of scouts I’ve asked think he’s not a catcher in the long run – he has arm strength, but a long arm stroke, and is a poor receiver. And then the question changes to whether he’ll hit enough to be an impact guy at a position like first base, and I would say the jury is still out on that. (I know the Reds believe he’s a catcher, and I think he’s still too inexperienced to give up on him.)

Rodney: Is my love for Matt Thaiss justified? He’s always got on base, but his 2018 HR total already exceeds 2017’s. Can he be an everyday player for the Angels next season?
Keith Law: He’s in Salt Lake now, a great hitters’ park. I don’t think this power surge is real, not at sea level.

Adam: Worried at all about Albies or is this downswing simply because hes like 12 years old and playing Major League Baseball? Has he shown he can adjust before?
Keith Law: What he did in April was never likely to last.

Adam: What should the Braves do with Fried? Its obvious the team likes Gohara more. Should he be in the pen or traded?
Keith Law: I prefer to see him starting in AAA and waiting for an opening than have him come up and barely pitch out of the pen.

Lyle: Eric Filia, while being something like the 6th-10th best prospect in the Mariners system and is probably in the 20s in the Red Sox system, still seems like a big overpay for a pitcher the Red Sox basically just wanted to get rid of. Thoughts?
Keith Law: No position really, but I do think he can hit and has major league value.

Brian: Keith, I find myself heading to THE BOARD on Fangraphs as well as MLB’s Top 100 pages quite often and was wondering if you’ve been giving thought (or your editors have) to having your rankings somewhere on ESPN. I realize the time and resources that would go into keeping that fresh and updated; just wondering if it’s considered.
Keith Law: I have zero interest in this. It becomes way too prone to recency bias.

Mark: Do you like espresso? If so, how do you drink the sparkling water served with it?
Keith Law: After the espresso as a palate cleanser. I assume that’s your question – like, as opposed to dumping the espresso in the sparkling water?

Jo-Nathan: Is the handling of Mike Vasil closing in on abuse? He was ‘needed’ for the final 4 outs Tuesday as his team was about to blow a 6 run lead, and his coach still planned to start him Wednesday. Lucky for his arm the game was rained out, but he’s scheduled to pitch today. It would be interesting to see a lawyer go after this coach in a civil suit when his arm blows up. Having said that this coach should be fired but instead it sounds like he’ll be celebrated for getting his team this far.
Keith Law: His coach refused to take responsibility for misusing Vasil two days before the start where the kid got hurt, throwing him a meaningless relief inning with no scouts present. If Vasil blows out, I hope parents and administrators look back at how he was mishandled this spring. You can never draw a straight line from misuse to injury, but we can at least point to the misuse as bad process.

Rex: Have you tried the new board game Bofa yet? It’s gotten pretty decent reviews, but I wanted to get your expert opinion before I buy it.
Keith Law: I have been on the Internet since you were an egg sitting idly in your mother’s ovary. You must be really, really stupid to think I’d fall for DEEZ NUTS.

Mark: Do you think a Brad Hand for Kyle Tucker trade is fair for both sides?
Keith Law: HAHAHAHAHAHA no.

Harold Kunz: Do you expect the Cubs to run away with the division this year?
Keith Law: No. Try asking less extreme questions, like, “do you expect the Cubs to win the division this year?” (Yes.)

TJ: So what happened with Liberatore? Teams didn’t know his price so they passed and then he signed for slot anyway?
Keith Law: I think his price was a little high for the teams in the top ten, and then he got to teams his adviser may not have talked to seriously, assuming they’d never get there. I know the Rays had no expectation he’d get to them.

Chris: Have you seen or heard anything about Oakland INF/OF Eli White? Total np coming into the year, did nothing in Stockton last season, but he’s putting up big numbers in AA. Anything there, or just the best 250 AB’s of his life?
Keith Law: Best 250 AB of his life. Not young, .404 BABIP, no previous performance.

Marc (DC): Is Dom Smith still a prospect? How badly has Sandy Alderson mismanaged the Mets farm system?
Keith Law: He’s not a prospect by my definition for rankings, but I still think he has a good major-league future ahead of him if they just let him play. Alderson et al have really worked against themselves with weird promotions/holding players back. Tebow sucks at two levels, still goes to AA; David Peterson rips apart the Pac 12, has to start in low-A and dominate for over two months just to see the Florida State League.

Santiago: Hey Keith, what are your thoughts on Orioles left hanger DL Hall? Ceiling? Likely role?
Keith Law: As is now, mid-rotation starter. Stuff has taken a half-step back.

Alex: Hey Keith, are you swinging by the Cape at all this summer? Fellow Long Islander interning with Y-D and would love to say hi
Keith Law: If I go, it’ll be the last full week of July, before I head to the Silver Unicorn in Acton for a book signing/talk.

Brian: Does Jeisson Rosario have a future as an average regular or more?
Keith Law: Yes, with low probability given his age/distance from the majors.

Sean: What would you say are reasonable expectations for how Loaisiga will perform while Tanaka is out?
Keith Law: He was in short-season ball last year, so I’d keep expectations low. Major-league stuff right now, future starter, not major-league command yet.

Archie: How quickly do you think Bart can get to the majors?
Keith Law: Within two years. Don’t think he’s a fast-to-the-majors guy.

Ben: Why hasn’t there been more made of Ryan Rolison’s advocating violence against President Obama? I realize that this isn’t remotely the same as Luke Heimlich but it would have been absolutely disqualifying for me. Why is he getting such a pass?
Keith Law: I actually don’t think anyone saw it until after he was taken. At least, I didn’t. Also, tip to future possible draft picks: Delete your social media accounts. Like, now.

Brian Anderson: What does my future hold? Rookie of the year this year? Beyond?
Keith Law: Not ROY for me right now. Future average regular.

Don: Do front offices consider it a failure if their top 5 pick ends up being a league average player?
Keith Law: Yes. In some drafts, of course, that’s not really fair – the 2008 draft only had two stars in it.

Chris: Gavin Cecchini is surely better than Jose Reyes, right?
Keith Law: I don’t think you can trust Cecchini on the left side of the infield. I’d love to see the Mets fire Reyes into the heart of the sun, but they would need a backup SS, no?

Brett : Could Kevin Smith develop enough to push Bichette to another position? What is his ceiling?
Keith Law: No, he’s not a long-term SS at all.

Reginald: Do you generally advocate for kids to skip college if they aren’t Day 1 picks but are Day 2?
Keith Law: Depends on what the bonus might be, their financial situation, and what their projection is – if you’re a kid who’s likely to get bigger and stronger in college, that’s a different answer than if you’re 5’11” and maxed out physically.

WhiteSoxAndy: Keith, do you follow the FIFA World Cup at all? (Please don’t respond with the soccer-hating tone that a lot of people I know do. My 2 favorite sports are baseball and soccer – both can be loved!)
Keith Law: With Italy out, I have no real rooting interest this year … and I find it hard to justify watching an event in Russia, bought and paid for by a country that has clearly interfered in our electoral process.

CD: What do you make of Austin Beck so far? Hitting for average, but no power. K rate has improved, but his BB rate has fallen. He’s only 19 so he’s young for the league, but I don’t know if this progress or not.
Keith Law: Power will be there. Not worried about that at all.

KW: Thanks for taking the time to do this, Keith. What are the chances Clemens’ dominance in the CWS leads him to reject the Tigers’ 3rd round signing offer and return for a senior year to chase a higher selection?
Keith Law: Zero. I doubt anyone is that dumb.
Keith Law: Plus he almost certainly agreed to a number already. Backing out of that won’t do him or his adviser any favors.

Jim: I have to confess that, outside of the obvious of being able to sit down together, I’m no overly impressed with the Singapore meeting. However, I’m not sure how muc of that is due to my total loathing of 45. So, style/no substance, impressive accomplishment, or another troubling case of enabling an authoritarian regime?
Keith Law: Right now, just enabling a murderous dictator – giving him the PR boost he wanted, the validation that comes from seeing the DPRK flag alongside the US flag, of seeing a US President saluting a North Korean general. We should judge all leaders on measurable progress, not on pomp and circumstance. (Now, if Trump follows through on ending the federal ban on marijuana, that would be real, measurable progress.)

Jamie: Is this peak Albert Almora and should he play every day?
Keith Law: This looks about right. Not a ton of power but strong AVG, high contact, 70 defense.

Erin: Do you know what’s going on with Jose Albertos? I know I’m not supposed to scout the stat line, but 18+ ERA after 5 starts?
Keith Law: Fairly certain he has the yips.

Joe: Think Loaisiga can hold his own in the bigs at this time? Would it have made more sense to call up Sheffield or someone else?
Keith Law: He was already on the 40-man. Gave him a big advantage.

Jo-Nathan: Is Josh Staumont starting to figure it out?
Keith Law: No. I swear people ask this every year.

Don: Who do you prefer, Nick Madrigal or Luis Urias?
Keith Law: Unfair comparison – AAA hitter with success everywhere vs guy who hasn’t played pro ball yet.

Jeries: Dylan Covey gained almost 2mph on his fastball and is throwing it way more, and is now a groundball machine. Were you ever high on him?
Keith Law: In high school. He was really mediocre in college, never got any better in pro ball.

Brett : Assuming you read the comments made by an NL executive who said Bryce Harper is overrated and a selfish player. Would love you insight on these comments.
Keith Law: I am assuming that cowardly “executive” has spent the last 48 hours furiously deleting all his text messages and emails.

Mike: How much draft day risk is there for a strategy like Toronto’s, where they pass on Liberatore, to take Groshans and then Koffenstein. What if someone took Kloshenstein instead?
Keith Law: Given what they paid Kloffenstein (third time’s the charm), he wasn’t likely to be selected. I think the advisor put word out he wasn’t signing for anything less than that, so teams passed.

Bort: What do you say to people who think bat flips = poor sportsmanship?
Keith Law: go watch golf

Andres: Any listens on the new Johnny Marr singles? Thoughts?
Keith Law: All fine but unremarkable – he hasn’t been great at crafting huge hooks, not since the Smiths broke up.

books: Have you announced yet what cities you’ll be in signing copies of Smart Baseball?
Keith Law: Only DC and outside Boston.

Phillies fan: On a scale of 1-10, how worried should I be about Sixto Sanchez being put on the DL for elbow issues?
Keith Law: Maybe 5. They’re also being super cautious with him. But he’s a little guy who throws 100, so there’s always some concern.

Bort: How fast can Alec Bohm move? Is a 2019 debut unreasonable aggressive?
Keith Law: I think that’s on the extreme optimistic end.

Joe: Do you think of any of the Giants’ collection of lesser/younger arms – Stratton, Suarez, Rodriguez, Beede, Black- can be as much as a No. 4 starter? Or any at least a 5?
Keith Law: A 4 would be a great outcome for any of them. If you mean Ray Black, he can’t even stay healthy or throw strikes as a reliever.

Amory: Devers just have growing pains or has your belief in his ceiling gone down?
Keith Law: He’s 21. He’s younger than Alec Bohm. Come on.

Amy: Is Jordan Beeks a ML starter? Can he be a decent 4/5, or is he just a depth piece?
Keith Law: I think he’s a depth piece, maybe a really good reliever, but you saw in that first inning he threw that there was some deception involved in AAA that didn’t work in the majors.

Brandon: Have you started a list of some kind of the college players you’ll try scout more in 2019 now that the 2018 draft is over? Any Vandy guys towards the top of that list?
Keith Law: I won’t bear down like that until the spring. If I can work in some Cape games, I’ll just go see whoever I see – I don’t target guys so much as just go to games and watch.

Sloan: Madrigal or Moncada as White Sox 2B for the next 5-7 years?
Keith Law: Madrigal is the safer bet. Curious what Moncada would look like in the OF, and I didn’t think he was bad at 3b in the AFL.

Jo-Nathan: Has Bo Bichette improved enough defensively to stick at SS long term?
Keith Law: Nope.

Kevin: After Hjelle signs would he be your no. 2 prospect for SF Giants?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t take him over Ramos right now.

Joe: I apologize if you already mentioned this, but who do you see as the first 2018 draft pick to appear in majors?
Keith Law: With the Tigers having no reason to push Mize, it’ll probably be some college closer like Feltman or Gilliam.

Humble Newsie: Hey Keith, thanks for the chat and all of your work. Do you think of Mejia in the top tier of catching prospects all by himself, or does one of Ruiz, Murphy, Jansen, Smith (or someone else) belong there too?
Keith Law: He’s well ahead of anyone else – but he might be such a good hitter he gets moved off catcher, too.

Chase : Jo Adell’s hitting ability coming around? He’s still not walking, but it looks like he’s adjusted to the Cal League while being quite a bit younger than his competition. I love the dude.
Keith Law: I have no issue with him not walking given his youth and other performance.

Brian: What happened to Buddy Reed? Looks like he’s still striking out a lot at ~25% but he appears to be crushing the ball and playing great defense in High A. what have you heard about him and has he elevated himself on the padres prospect rankings?
Keith Law: No, he’s 24, way too old for high-A, in a good hitter’s park. Age. Matters.

Adam: So Fernando Tatis Jr isn’t a bust anymore. That’s nice.
Keith Law: Yeah but has that one writer decided he’s more than an org player yet?

Paul: Are Folty and Newcomb here to stay as #2/3 starters?
Keith Law: Folty yes. Newcomb no. Hard to project a guy as a #2 starter when he’s barely throwing 60% of pitches for strikes.

Nick: Is Mets farm system not as bad as a lot of people say it is? I feel they have several mid rotations starters (Peterson, Dunn, Kay, Szapucki if he comes back healthy) and several interesting bats (Alonso, Giminez, now Kelenic). Obviously not a top system, but I don’t think that this is the disaster of a group that many people think it is.
Keith Law: I’ve said this for a while. Mets fans have many reasons to complain about how the team has been run, but the farm system itself is not the problem.

Chris: Florial, Andujar and Sheffield for DeGram-who says no?
Keith Law: The Yankees. I wouldn’t do that and I think Florial has been wildly overrated by people who haven’t seen him play.

Matt: Given that Kopech is knocking on the door and the rest of the rotation looks relatively solid with Rodon back, does it make sense to send Giolito back to triple A? Seems like the problem is that he forgot how to throw strikes, not sure if he needs to stay in the majors to fix that
Keith Law: I would; it’s not getting better just by rolling him out there every five days. I can understand them wanting to keep him working with the major league coaching staff on restoring his mechanics, but it’s mid-June and he hasn’t gotten any better since the team broke camp.

Wellington Jones: Bubba Thompson was drafted by the Rangers as one of their toolsy athletes who couldn’t hit. He’s K’ing a lot in A ball, but appears to be drawing a few walks and putting up decent numbers. Is there reason to be encouraged by his start?
Keith Law: “who couldn’t hit” is just wrong. He was raw, but didn’t have a 30 hit tool or the like. He’s a prospect, still raw, making some progress.

XxXxYyYyXxXxX: Rangers fans are up in arms over Texas passing on Liberatore for Winn at 15, when Liberatore signed for below slot. Defensible decision, or did the Rangers blow it here?
Keith Law: I had Winn in my top 10 and Liberatore at 3. For high school arms, that’s really not a huge difference. It’s also quite possible that the Rangers hadn’t spent a ton of time on Liberatore because they figured (as I did) he’d never get to 15.

Rob: Taking the family to the Jersey Shore this year? I’m a fan of the Sea Grill in Avalon.
Keith Law: Never been to the Jersey shore at all.

Brian: No mention of the Mariners in your recent insider article on team’s new top prospects. Is Gilbert anywhere close to the top of their weak farm system?
Keith Law: He’s not #1.

Bill: Josh Naylor seems to be settling in at left field in AA. Will he be the Pads left fielder by Labor Day?
Keith Law: I’d be floored if he were able to play LF at an adequate major league level.

Paul: If you were in Anthopoulos’ position, how would you handle the trade deadline?
Keith Law: If you think you can trade some pitching surplus for major-league help, consider it – they do have a few more arms than they can use in the majors right now, and there are guys like Wright, Wilson, Anderson coming fast. But I wouldn’t go all in, or try to trade for someone like Machado … fans pushing for that are delusional on several levels, not least how much impact one player might have in two months.

Chris: Let’s say Kershaw returns in a few weeks, pitches like his normal self and then opts out. What offer would you be comfortable giving him and would you pay a little extra if you’re the Dodgers given his importance to the organization and LAD’s seemingly unlimited monies?
Keith Law: I have a feeling this is what’s going to end up happening – the Dodgers will offer him more, because he’s Clayton Kershaw. Don’t you have to try to offer him at least an Arrieta-like deal – short duration, huge AAV, in the hopes that he gives you one or two Peak Kershaw years?

Brett : Acuna or Soto long term?
Keith Law: Still taking Acuna there.

Gabe: Do you think the Eduardo Rodriguez will ever be more than a back end starter?
Keith Law: I think he’s more than that right now.

Jesse B: Does Seuly Matias have enough hit tool to be a star?
Keith Law: Right now, no. He’s doing what Joey Gallo did in low-A, but with 2/3 the walk rate. And Gallo is still dancing on the edge of major league value.

Mark: Are there any board games that are two players against the game if that makes sense? Like a couple could play together trying to win against the game (jigsaw puzzle I guess, but fun)?
Keith Law: Lots of cooperative games – Pandemic, Forbidden Desert, Forbidden Island, Flash Point, Spirit Island (I still haven’t played that through), etc.
Keith Law: Oh, Elder Sign. Goofier, still very fun for 2.

Yinka Double Dare: What were the odds on Dylan Covey being the White Sox’s best starting pitcher this year? Velo ticked up this year, throwing a lot more sinkers, walks down, strikeouts up, hard to believe it’s the same guy who gave up 20 homers in 70 innings last year.
Keith Law: I would have said zero odds on that back in March.

Gary: Saw a Rosenthal article floating a Devers for Machado trade. 5 years of Devers seems like too much for a rental, even one as good as Machado. Would you do that from Boston side?
Keith Law: Absolutely not.

Dan: I hate to bring him up again but I’m genuinely curious about what happens to Luke Heimlich now. Two consecutive years of going undrafted and now his time with Oregon State is over. Does he go play independent ball somewhere and hope to sign with a team after some time goes by? Or are his aspirations of playing in MLB over?
Keith Law: Here’s my view on the matter: I don’t want to ever talk about Luke Heimlich again.

Jeries: Who has a brighter future in the outfield if they need to move there, Tim Anderson or Yoan Moncada?
Keith Law: You lose much more moving Anderson than you do moving Moncada, IMO.

John: Verducci had a recent article, advocating for (i) lowering the mound, (ii) limit the roster to 12 pitchers, or (iii) implementing a pitch clock. Any reaction to those proposals?
Keith Law: You lower the mound if you really want to get more pitchers hurt.

Kenny: If a 1st day guys were not going to sign, who is the most likely?
Keith Law: They will also sign unless someone flunks a physical (or the team discovers old tweets threatening to kill the President).

Michael : You had Kyler Murray ranked in the 30s pre-draft, but didn’t seem to have a problem with the A’s drafting him with the 9th pick. Was your ranking affected by signability issues, the fact that he’s a high risk/reward prospect, or something else?
Keith Law: He had ~100 AB total in between high school and this spring. He is very high risk, and high reward.
Keith Law: And he wasn’t close to the lowest-ranked player taken in the first round, either.

Trevor: Where is Kevin Maitan?
Keith Law: Still in extended spring training.

Seth: It’s been widely reported the Giants held a private workout for Bart in San Francisco. Is that typical for guys at the top of the draft to have private workouts?
Keith Law: Yes.

CD: Two part questions – just based on talent, forget football, do you like the Murray pick for Oakland? Also, just your gut feeling, will the pick end up being “successful” for the team and the player?
Keith Law: If I said he has, say, a 30% chance of being a successful big leaguer, I’d raise that to 40% if he’d just play this summer and fall instead of going to get his head bashed in playing CTE-ball.

Joe: Fair to see Witt as similar to Daz Cameron from a few years ago? I.e. a good player who gets a bit overhyped given his bloodline and the fact that his class hasn’t been heavily scouted.
Keith Law: Yes. That could change as we all turn our lonely eyes to the 2019 class.

Sean: Approximately what % of the time are you away from home during the season? Do you find this hard on your family? Asking as someone contemplating taking a job that includes a lot of travel.
Keith Law: I range between 50 and 70 hotel nights per year, concentrated in between Valentine’s Day and Memorial Day. The rest of the summer I do a lot of minor league work from the house – there are seven or eight teams I can round-trip in two hours each way or less.

Michael: For people interested in a career in baseball, do scouts and front office people ever see their families? It looks like most of them are married and have kids, but it’s gotta be tough.
Keith Law: Yes, it’s very hard on families. I travel less than most scouts & GMs do, and I know it still upsets my daughter when I have long trips.

Chris: Lamonte Wade tore up AA and just got promoted. Major league regular for you?
Keith Law: Extra OF for me.

Jesse B: Kevin Smith came out of nowhere. Is he legit? Possibly the BlueJays SS of the future?
Keith Law: Not a SS. And he was a college guy in low-A until June – you can throw out what he did for Lansing.

Keith Law Disciple: I just wanted to say I love you! Please keep doing what you’re doing.
Keith Law: Thanks, but really, I don’t think I could do anything else at this point.

Jake: So, were you of the same frame of mind when President Obama enabled the Iranian authoritarian regime? Going so far as to allegedly help them launder money to get around international sanctions?
Keith Law: but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about
Keith Law: (Also, that story is straight from the GOP.)

Harrisburg Hal: Do you cook, go out or have something prepared for you for Fathers Day?
Keith Law: I’ll cook. I’ve been eating out a lot lately, and have a vacation coming up, so it’ll be nice to cook & have a nice dinner at home.

Jeremy: Do you think the Mariners can keep up with the Astros throughout the long season? Hard to believe the Astros have over a +100 run diff on the M’s and have the same record.
Keith Law: I do not. Mariners might win the WC, but the Astros will win the division.

Jamie: No snark, can you explain how 50 games is small sample size for performance, but 1-2 games isn’t SSS for scouting?
Keith Law: Because scouting isn’t that kind of data. You don’t have the same kind of randomness – a pitcher who averages 94 isn’t going to throw 88 one game and 100 the next. A hitter’s swing isn’t going to vary wildly game to game. A player who’s an 80 runner isn’t going to run average on a Tuesday night.
Keith Law: Skills shouldn’t vary much at all. Performance is the result of the repeated application of skills against the skills of other players. Performance will vary.

Sean: Have you seen Frederick Keys outfielder Ryan McKenna this year? Reports are that he made some mechanical adjustments halfway through 2017, and he’s looked great this year.
Keith Law: I saw him for 2 AB on Sunday before the rainout. I liked what I saw, but would like to see more … the swing is good as is the body.

Chris: Re: the Harper comments. I’m not a Harper hater in the least. It appears he works hard, plays hard, etc. I do however think he is a tad overrated and there are probably 10-12 guys I would draft right now over him. Is that a more realistic and reasonable viewpoint than “he sucks, he’s a loser.”
Keith Law: I wouldn’t agree with you on that, but it is a reasonable, measured position that avoids insulting the player or making unfalsifiable claims.

Marc (DC): When will you be signing your book in DC?
Keith Law: July 14th at Politics & Prose with my friend Jay Jaffe.

Mike: Upside for Taylor Hearn – 4/5 starter or reliever for you?
Keith Law: Reliever. Good one.

John: Saw that you linked to a couple of things about Anthony Bourdain. To what extent were you a fan?
Keith Law: Loved his writing. Not a big TV watcher, so I was never big on his shows. I feel so bad for Eric Ripert, who had to find him, and Asia Argento, who’s been through hell herself the last year and now has to deal with this loss too.

David: Hi Keith! Thanks for not sticking to sports. When can we expect an update to your pizza ranking (unless it’s still up to date)?
Keith Law: Good question. I should add that to the long-term to-do list.

Joshua: What position do you believe Carter Kieboom eventually plays in the Majors, and do you believe his bat will play for whatever position you think he ends up at? Thanks.
Keith Law: Second base and yes.

Brett : From one Father to another, wishing you a Happy Father’s Day!
Keith Law: Thank you – Happy Father’s Day to you too, and to all the dads and dads-to-be out there.
Keith Law: I’m going on vacation next week, so this will probably be the last chat until July (the timing won’t work out well for a chat the week after). Thank you all for reading and for all of your questions – I appreciate your readership, especially at a time like this when I’m creating so much content and dumping it on all of you at once. I should have the top 25 players under 25 ready to go before I leave, so keep an eye out for that as well!

The Girl Who Circumnavigated Fairyland in a Ship of Her Own Making.

Catherynne Valente first published her young adult novel The Girl Who Circumnavigated Fairyland in a Ship of Her Own Making online, in installments; the book was a huge success online, winning the Andre Norton Award for young adult science fiction/fantasy, given by the Science Fiction Writers’ Association, and is still the only self-published novel to do so. It’s now the first novel in the five-book Fairyland series, which covers the adventures of a young girl named September who lives in Omaha and is visited one day by the Green Wind, who whisks her off to the parallel world known as Fairyland. Hilarity and peril ensue, as they would. I bought it for my daughter to read, but last month decided to give it a whirl myself, and it is witty, sweet, and written at a very high level for YA literature.

September is your typical YA fantasy heroine, a precocious child whose life is boring (to her) and whose family isn’t perfect (her father is away at war, her mother works long hours at an airplane manufacturing plant), so she is the ideal target for a being from Fairyland to come and rescue for a series of adventures – although Valente has a knack for making these adventures go sideways often enough that they’re not totally predictable. September then meets a series of eccentric characters from Fairyland after the Green Wind, including a wyvern who’s convinced his father was a library, a young ifrit named Saturday, a conjured servant made of soap, a sentient paper lantern, and plenty of others, leading up to the Marquess, a young girl who has become the evil queen of Fairyland after the death of the benevolent queen who preceded her. September ends up on a series of quests that generally don’t end well for her but instead lead her on a crooked path toward an eventual confrontation with the Marquess and a revelation about the true connection between Fairyland and our human plane.

Valente’s imagination is impressive, with crazy characters and amusing plot twists, but she writes in a high style that recalls 19th and 20th century British literature, from Lewis Carroll to P.G. Wodehouse, similar to the writing of Susanna Clarke but just a half-grade lower in difficulty. Reading it as an adult (by age, at least), I never felt that the prose was written for children or in any way condescending to the reader through simpler vocabulary or syntax. I’m unfamiliar with Valente’s other work – she’s a prolific author – but if this isn’t a near approximation of her natural voice, I’d be shocked. It’s perfectly calibrated to appropriately challenge a young reader without turning her off, and to appeal to an adult reader without seeming trivial or dumb.

There’s also quite a bit of wordplay within Fairyland, perhaps not quite as much as you’ll find in The Phantom Tollbooth or in the Harry Potter series, but a similar mix of straight-up puns and double meanings along with twisted loanwords from folklore and mythology. September meets a wairwulf, who is a wolf 27 days a month and a man the other three, and is married to two witches, one of whom gets the wolf days and the other the human days; the witches are named Hello and Goodbye, and the wairwulf Manythanks. There’s a quest for a spoon (alas, not the runcible variety), a dictum to avoid eating any food in Fairyland that quickly goes awry, an argument over the shape of the earth (“roughly trapezoidal, vaguely rhomboid, a bit of a tesseract”), and plenty of sly jokes about bureaucracy, pseudoscience, and air travel.

My daughter read this when she was 11 and both enjoyed it and said she had no real trouble with the prose; she read it on her Kindle, which, despite my affinity for dead-tree editions, does have the benefit of allowing you to click on a word and get an immediate definition. (And then you read a paper book and come across a word you don’t know and put your finger on the page and press and then look around and hope nobody saw you do that. Or so I hear.) Valente has hit that perfect sweet spot between writing for a young audience and keeping it smart enough to hold an adult’s attention. I ripped through the entire book in just a few hours while on a flight back from Europe last month, because I wanted something light for the long trip, but this was fun and sharp enough that I decided it was worth reviewing and recommending too.

Next up: I’m way behind on book reviews, but I’m currently reading Flannery O’Connor’s novel Wise Blood, which is just $3.55 for Kindle right now.

Compounded.

The board game Compounded takes its theme from the world of chemistry, asking players to gather five elements to assemble any of the sixteen compounds available at any given time on the table, while boosting players’ abilities to form and fill compounds as the game progresses. The core game play is pretty simple, although the rules are more detailed than they probably need to be, and there’s one rule I could probably have done completely without.

The elements that players will use to form their compounds are drawn at random from a bag, and no two elements appear with the same frequency – hydrogen is the most common, sulfur is the rarest. Compounds can be as simple as three elements, and can require up to eight. You can ‘claim’ one compound at a time, before you finish it, and can then place two elements anywhere on the tableau on a turn. Once you do finish a compound, you take the card, return the elements to the bag, earn three to seven points, and get to move up one of your four tracking tokens that affect how many elements you draw at the start of each turn (default is two), how many compounds you can claim at any given time, how many elements you can place on a turn, and how many elements you can store on your board (default is four). Some compounds also give you a bonus token or ongoing ability; for example, if you have three elements of any color, you can return them to the bag to take one element of your choice, but with the Pipette that ratio becomes 2:1 instead.

The game progresses until one player has scored at least 50 points – the scoring track is a separate board showing the periodic table, so you have to at least get to tin – or one player has reached the top of three of his four tracks, or the deck of compounds is exhausted. That can take anywhere from 45 minutes to an hour and a half in our experience, playing with three to five players. (It plays two with some rules variations.)

The one rule that I would gladly ditch is the lab fire, which doesn’t do much but add some randomness and a little ability to screw your opponents to the game. Some compounds have one or two tiny fire icons at the bottom of their cards, indicating that the compounds are flammable. The deck of compound cards has five Lab Fire cards in it, and when one appears, players must add one very tiny fire token to every compound on the table that has the icon on it. Once all flame icons on a compound have been filled, the compound explodes and is removed from the board, and all elements on it are scattered to adjacent compounds (at the discretion of the player who had claimed but not finished it). There are also a few volatile compounds in the deck that explode when they’re completed and have a similar effect on the tableau. Players can complete their fire extinguishers – two oxygen, one carbon and use them to remove one flame token from any compound, although I think it’s better to save it until the end of the game for 4 extra points. And you may earn a one-time use Bunsen burner token that you can use to light someone else’s compound on fire, which is just mean.

There’s more strategy required in Compounded that just figuring out which compounds you can easily finish; gaining the abilities to draw or place more elements each round is huge, and whichever player moves up the fastest on those tracks is going to have an advantage that will be hard for other players to catch. Getting those abilities does require some luck, however, as you have to draw the right elements to be able to complete the right compounds; we had one five-player game where one player never managed to finish a compound that would have allowed her to draw more than two elements at a time. There is a slight workaround – if you finish a compound with a graduated cylinder on it, you can then bump one track down a peg and another track up a peg, once per turn for the rest of the game – but it can lead to a serious imbalance if one player just gets the wrong draws from the bag.

I’m all for more science-themed games, and chemistry games seem to be especially scarce, so Compounded is a welcome entry to the field. I did find some of the rules a little fiddly, and the Lab Fire mechanic didn’t really work for me other than to add more maintenance and move through the compound deck a little faster. The core game play itself, trying to figure out how best to deploy the elements you’ve drawn, is the best part of Compounded, and you can certainly tweak the other rules to work with just that basic mechanic for a cleaner experience.

The Tale.

Documentary filmmaker Jennifer Fox won the Grand Jury Documentary Prize at Sundance in 1987, when she was just 28 years old, for her debut feature Beirut: The Last Home Movie, about a Lebanese family living in a mansion in the country’s capital during its extensive civil war. She returned to Sundance this year with her first traditional (non-documentary) feature, The Tale, which received rave reviews and was picked up by HBO, which debuted the movie at the end of May. Telling the story of how Fox’s track coach groomed and molested her when she was just 13, it stars Laura Dern as the adult Fox, whose memories around that summer mislead her into thinking of it as a romantic relationship, and who tries to uncover the truth of what happened to her, thirty years later, when her mother discovers a story Fox had written at the time that described the predatory “relationship.”

Rather than simply using flashbacks, Fox tells the story as if she (as Dern) were traveling through her own memories, not just witnessing them but interacting with them, including conversations with her younger self (played by Isabelle Nélisse) and interrogations of her equestrian teacher Mrs. G (Elizabeth Debicki) within the memories. Fox arrived at Mrs. G’s for a summer of horseback riding lessons, and is immediately introduced to the charming forty-ish neighbor Bill Allens (Jason Ritter), who is Mrs. G’s lover and who quickly turns the charm on for Jenny, then gradually grooms her for rape.

Nearly every revelation in Fox’s memory begins with a false start, some detail rendered inaccurately (including her own age at the time of the assaults) or person not remembered, so that The Tale becomes not just a story about a young girl sexually assaulted by an older man, but about how we respond to trauma within our minds – how our brains can try to protect us by creating a fictional shell around the more difficult truth. Thus the movie plays out as a true-life detective story, where the culprit is known but the crime is hazy, and Fox has to navigate her own memories by uncovering clues in the present day – talking to her fellow students at the time and visiting Mrs. G, who goes from helpful to stonewalling in the blink of an eye – so that she can peel away the fictional outer layer on those memories and show us the truth. The technique is jarring, as it should be given the subject matter, because any scene showing the past may subsequently be rewound and rewritten so we can see it as it actually happened, not as present-day Fox recalled it. It’s most striking when she discovers another young girl (older than she was) in photographs from that summer whom she hadn’t remembered at all.

Dern is riveting as Fox, carrying us through the stages of denial, anger, and eventually something like acceptance – she confronts Bill in the present day, in a scene that is truly fictional but also pivotal to resolving the film – and making her seem understandably irrational in her worst moments. There’s a fight with her fiancé, played by Common, that is anguishing to watch because it’s clear that he’s right and willing to help, but she’s incapable of even discussing what happened with the person who is, in theory, closest to her. And Ritter is so creepy in the grooming moments – let alone the utterly harrowing, barely watchable scenes of statutory rape (filmed with a body double for Nélisse) – that it’ll be hard to see him in anything else in the future. (It also doesn’t help that he looks so much like his dad, the late John Ritter of Three’s Company fame.)

There’s a recurring refrain in The Tale that’s used to hand-wave away any violations of social norms or boundaries, including the whole idea that a 40-year-old man shouldn’t have sex with a 13-year-old girl: “It was the seventies.” There’s such a note of dismissiveness in the quote, uttered by at least three different characters, that you feel how uphill Fox’s battle to get at the truth might have been for her. People don’t like to dig up the past in any unpleasant circumstances, even less so when they might feel some complicity in someone else’s crimes, and pointing to the sexual permissiveness of the era – which was used to try to whitewash the story of David Bowie sleeping with teenaged groupies after his passing – only adds another wall for the victims to scale as they try to grapple with their histories of trauma.

The Tale uses Jennifer Fox’s real name for her character, but changed the names of the real-life Mrs. G and Bill Allens, as both are still alive. There is no indication whether Allens ever faced any charges or even repercussions for what is later implied to be dozens of assaults on various underaged girls, or if the various buildings or wings of buildings named for him still bear his name. I understand the legal ramifications of using his real name in the film, but if he’s still alive, he may still be a threat, and there are likely may other surviving victims who would like answers, even if justice is still beyond them.

Because it hasn’t received a theatrical release, The Tale isn’t eligible for Oscar or other annual awards for movies, but should earn Emmy consideration this fall for the movie itself and for Dern, Ritter, and Fox both as director and writer. I’ll still rank it along movies that did go to theaters at some point, and I’ll guess even before the halfway point that it’ll end up in my top ten for 2018. It’s powerful without ever manipulating its audience, and the novel way it walks us down the false starts of memory gives the viewer such a sense of Fox’s confusion that you’ll crave the catharsis that Fox can never really receive.

Stick to baseball, 6/9/18.

The 2018 MLB Rule 4 draft has come and gone and I have recaps up for all National League teams and all American League teams. I also wrote my reactions to day one on Monday night, and held a Klawchat on Tuesday after the fourth round, while teams continued drafting.

You can find more details on my top 100 prospects for the draft on my Big Board, and can see my final first-round mock from Monday afternoon, which had 9 picks on the dot and flipped Arizona’s first two picks.

Over at Paste, I recapped what I saw at Paradox Interactive’s PDXCON in Stockholm last month, where they announced tabletop versions of four of their popular video game titles: Crusader Kings, Cities Skylines, Europa Universalis, and Hearts of Iron.

My free email newsletter is back and I hope it’ll be more or less weekly again now that the draft is over; I’m planning to send the next issue this afternoon or tomorrow morning.

Smart Baseball is now out in paperback! I will be at Politics and Prose in Washington, DC, on July 14th, joined by my friend Jay Jaffe (The Cooperstown Casebook), and hope to announce a signing in the Boston area for the weekend of July 28th shortly.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 6/5/18.

Day one of the draft is in the books and day two has just begun. My thoughts on day one are now up for Insiders. You can also see my last mock for posterity’s sake; I had nine picks on the dot, and flipped Arizona’s two picks from 25 & 39.

Over at Paste my wrapup from PDXCon, where Paradox Interactive announced four new board games based on their popular video game titles, went up yesterday too.

Keith Law: It’s almost over now. Klawchat.

Adam: Thoughts on Greyson Jenista?
Keith Law: A reach at that spot for a player with serious position questions and poor offspeed recognition. He’s on my Big Board.

Chris: As a Giants fan, is my overall attitude of “meh” justified? While they got two players who will contribute (and Bart will likely contribute a lot), it just doesn’t feel like much upside considering they had the number two overall pick and a high second round pick.
Keith Law: It feels very safe, and they have taken four players so far who should contribute sooner rather than later, but you are right that they forewent upside in favor of probability and proximity.

K. Williams: What do you think of Konnor Pilkington? He looks like he has good size and he repeats his delivery well.
Keith Law: Velocity was down much of the spring, especially at this past weekend’s regional. Command guy at the back of a rotation in a best case scenario.

Gabe: In your write-up of Casas, you questioned his power. In other write ups I’ve seen him given as high as a 70 grade on his power. Are you questioning his potential for in-game power or did you get some really bad looks at him?
Keith Law: I don’t care what “other write ups” might say; I’ve seen Casas a few times and talked to plenty of scouts about him. To get him to 70 future power, someone is going to have to work with him on rotating more and getting more loft in his finish.

addoeh: I figure the undrafted high schoolers remaining in your top 100 probably won’t be drafted because of money. But what about the college players that still remain? Is the reason for them down to money? Is it injury concerns?
Keith Law: Could be medicals, yes, or some off-field/makeup thing I don’t know about.

Timothy: After day one which team(s) are most at the mercy of their pool money? Which ones have the most room to splurge?
Keith Law: I don’t track that, sorry.
Keith Law: BTW, college players who don’t get taken high may also be draft-eligible sophomores (Mulholland) or have otherwise told teams they want to finish their degrees.

El Perezoso: Texas has made another one of their high risk / high upside arms, Speas, a reliever / closer and he seems to have found “a little” command (if 20BB in 24IP can be considered “progress”). Thoughts on his potential as a high leverage bullpen arm?
Keith Law: You still have to throw strikes even to pitch in the sixth inning. He’s not close.

John: You commented yesterday that “cold weather bats” are hard to project, or something like that. How far south do you get where that is still a problem? Obviously the Sun Belt guys have an advantage. But is it still an issue in, say, Virginia? Jersey? Is there a clear line, or is it a sliding scale?
Keith Law: It’s a function of how many games those kids play each spring. The further north you go, the shorter the schedule, and the more games lost to weather.

Dan: Thanks for all your work on the draft Keith – I’m sure most people don’t realize how much time and effort you put into this. What are your thoughts concerning Madrigal staying at SS? If he can, would you have concerns over moving Anderson to CF/LF eventually?
Keith Law: Madrigal isn’t a SS now; he’s a 2b.

Tristan: Jays nab two high school teammates in their first three picks. Think an under-slot deal with the first one makes the second one signable? Do you see Kloffenstein as a worthwhile investment if the money is big?
Keith Law: I preferred other prep arms in that spot but I understand what they were trying to do.

Scott of Lincolnshire: KLAW! I know ~100% of 1st rounders will sign, but how many of these round 2/comp picks will sign? Wondering specifically if the Cubs can overpay for their 2nd round pick Davis.
Keith Law: Yes, you should assume they have all already agreed to terms. Now it’s just about passing their physicals.

Arnold: Pretty good job with your mock Keith. Who are you most surprised did not get selected on Day 1 of the MLB draft?
Keith Law: I had heard actual chatter about Wilcox going in the late first round and thought he’d be a pick somewhere before 40; maybe his price went up late. Floored Isbel didn’t go – that’s my favorite pick relative to its spot of all those Royals guys.

Ryan: Feltman 15 innings in the minors then to Boston?
Keith Law: Awfully optimistic there. How many college relievers have actually done that and not sucked?

Ben: Does Siani sign with Cincy?
Keith Law: Teams do not take players this high without deals in place. If you take a kid in the 4th round and he doesn’t sign, your draft pool is *fucked*.

Matt: More surprising – Murray at 9 or Stowers in the 50s?
Keith Law: Stowers was a real reach for me there. Maybe a money-saver.

Alan: The Cards grabbing Gorman at 19 seemed to be a surprise. Any idea why he fell that far?
Keith Law: Could be concerns about swing and miss.

JC: Tristan Beck, just taken, did not make your top 100 – all medical related (including the Stanford pitching problem) or stuff related as well?
Keith Law: Missed all of last spring with a back issue, stuff and results up and down this spring. Really didn’t miss many bats.

WarBiscuit: Any Auburn players/commits that could get drafted in Day 2 like Garrett Wade and Brendan Venter ?
Keith Law: Pretty sure Wade is going to school at this point.

Allan: How much do the Dodgers like pitchers coming off injuries ie Michael Grove?
Keith Law: Grove was up to 96 pre-surgery, but that may also be a below-slot deal to sign Ginn and maybe someone else later.

Dan: Did Blaine Knight slide to the O’s at 87 because of sign-ability concerns?
Keith Law: No, he doesn’t have a ton of leverage.

AGirlHasNoName: What is your opinion on the Cubs draft so far? Seem to be taking guys ahead of where you ranked them down the line.
Keith Law: Yeah, definitely surprised by several of these. Davis I liked, but a round after that, not a 7-figure guy.

Ben: Luis Robert assigned to Kannapolis, rather than W-S. Surprised at all?
Keith Law: I’m 90% certain that’s where I predicted he’d be assigned back in March.

Newt: How much harder was it to complete the final mock with the knowledge that you housed a three-legged predator with murder in its heart?
Keith Law: I live with this fear all the time.

Mike: Thoughts on Yanks taking two catchers with top 2 picks despite a young established catcher in Sanchez
Keith Law: Well catching is hardly Sanchez’s strong suit, and the two they took may both be better catchers in the end. Plus there is so much value in having good catching prospects.

HH: Cleveland has gone HS have the past two drafts, including multiple high picks of 17-year olds. Does that tell you anything about where they see their system, or am I overthinking this?
Keith Law: Tells me more that their draft model weighs age more heavily than other teams’ do.

Mat Ji: What I have read on Triston Casas indicates that he has an OK approach and a fair amount of raw power but has some holes in his swing. Assuming this is true, is this typically a fairly correctable issue?
Keith Law: That’s not what I’ve seen at all. I think he can really hit, but the power projects to maybe 60, not 70-80.

Brian: You had Carter Stewart #2 on your big board – given the high risk associated with prep pitchers is it safe to say that he is the most talented player in the class but was discounted to #2 because of the risk?
Keith Law: No, he was #2 because he was not as good as Mize.

Cooper: What do you think of the Royals grabbing 5 straight college pitchers with their 5 of top 58 picks… and Singer falling to them at 18?
Keith Law: Singer “falling” is relative; I don’t think Singer was worth a top 15 pick. I thought they got a lot of probability with those arms, and given their trouble with prep arms taken with high picks recently, it may be a worthy correction to their strategy.

AJ: Jose Suarez has been promoted twice already with absolutely huge SO numbers (also big BB numbers). Is he a legit frontline SP prospect?
Keith Law: I like him a lot – wrote him up in March – but he’s not a frontline (1 or 2) guy.

Nick: What happened to Nander de Sedas? He was projected to be a top 15 pick preseason, but then I stopped hearing anything about him.
Keith Law: He had a terrible spring at the plate, and I had more than one scout say he looked disinterested. I guess he’ll end up at FSU now.

Steve: Having been picked by the Rays, McClanahan seems like he’s going to end up as Jake McGee 2.0. Fair projection or can he make it as a starter?
Keith Law: I’d consider that an excellent outcome.

Brandon: Has there been anyone drafted that you just don’t know yet? What round does that normally start?
Keith Law: Grove (Dodgers’ last pick yesterday) was the first one.

Noah: It feels like in both the draft and in trades, the Phillies target safe but low upside players that project as back of the rotation players or utilitymen. It seems to be that you’d be better off devoting high draft picks and trade returns on lottery tickets with higher ceilings and find depth players elsewhere. Would love to hear your thoughts on this approach.
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s a fair assessment. Randolph was a high-ceiling bat who hasn’t panned out yet. JoJo Romero was a big gamble that’s paying off already.

Nick: Thoughts on Colton Eastman?
Keith Law: I like him, even though it’s a tough profile. Hitters don’t see the ball out of his hand at all.

Dr. Bob: Sometimes football and basketball players are better off not being drafted in a late round. Much less money and at the mercy of the team with no mobility. Is that true in baseball? Or is being drafted late still better than not being drafted at all?
Keith Law: In baseball, what matters most is what you’re paid, not where you’re taken.

ar: how much do you think about/are you concerned about recency bias and small sample size when looking at draft prospects? it makes sense that evaluations for growing kids be heavily weighted to recent events, but at the same time, the draft board has changed a ton since before the season.
Keith Law: Well, guys do get hurt, they change physically, they have to respond to the extra stresses of the draft season, and more than anything else we scout them more heavily. I saw a few 2019 guys over the course of this spring – Logan Davidson with Clemson comes to mind – but I didn’t focus on him because I was watching other players and chatting with scouts & advisers too. The next time I see Davidson, I’ll be bearing down on him.

Saman: Thoughts on the last two Dodgers’ picks? (Michael Grove and John Rooney)
Keith Law: I’m not really clear where their money is going now, unless they’re going way over on Ginn.

Zach: How much do you think Trackman stuff and makeup contribute to whether or not someone gets drafted? Ie how much stuff does the public not know about that influences where/when a player is drafted.
Keith Law: There are teams that weigh Trackman extremely heavily – Astros and Yankees for sure.

Sergio Q: Padres scouts mentioned that Weathers was hitting 94-95 in his final inning of his last start? Hype or real info?
Keith Law: He did that in a few starts – first outing back in March, at least his final two starts of the spring.

Not Chris: What player has the highest ceiling?
Keith Law: If Mize stays healthy he’s a #1 starter.

Pete: Have you seen Simeon Woods Richardson, the Mets 2nd rounder? Thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Video only. Up to 93, can show great depth on the breaking ball, lands both for strikes, has shown a CH, good athlete and competitor, physically maxed out, long arm swing.

Brian: Does your daughter ever walk by while you are doing a Periscope and wonder what in the world her dad is talking about? I would think that the lack of context around what you are saying would seem really strange for a child.
Keith Law: She’s used to my baseball-speak.

Rally Goose: How much of a reach was Clemens at 3.1?
Keith Law: Was not even a consideration for my top 100, so at least a full round.

Greg: Percentage chance the Reds sign Siani?
Keith Law: 100%. The answer isn’t going to change.

Joe: Do you think anyone takes Kumar Rocker at this point?
Keith Law: Round 11 or later, yes.

Josh: I’ve seen several Orioles fans who are skeptical of the Rodriguez pick make comparisons to Matt Hobgood; be it because of his size, jump in velo, or the fact that he went higher than expected. Is that a fair comparison?
Keith Law: Bad comparison. Really not similar other than both HS RHP.

Allan: Does Jonathan Ornelas have the potential pop to stick at third if/when he’s moved off ss?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jason: What did you think of the brewers’ first two picks? Can Gray make more contact? Was the first rounder SS a reach or a nice pick?
Keith Law: I think Turang gets to the majors on his defense for sure. If I told you today he’s going to have Adam Everett’s career, are you happy with that? You actually should be, based on the pick #, but I would guess most fans would say “no” because Everett doesn’t feel like a first-rounder in hindsight (he was one, 12th overall, and did have a career to justify going in the top 30).

Lilith: Many Reds fans were bummed last night that they weren’t able to get a “Taylor Trammell” or a “Jeter Downs” type player at the top of the 2nd round. Did they just get one with Siani in the 4th? Is my genuine excitement justified?
Keith Law: Yes, based on my rankings that’s exactly what they did.

Bret: Obviously one can’t ignore the past season when evaluating him, but what was Griffin Conine’s scouting report a year ago at this time? What are the odds the Jays can get him back to that?
Keith Law: Clear top 10 pick coming out of the Cape. Then he punched out 70 times this spring.
Keith Law: Someone asked about Stiever at IU in chat yesterday – he just went in the fifth round.

THE Average Sports Fan: India an under slot selection? How many 3b do the Reds actually need\
Keith Law: Fans get fairly stuck on a player’s listed position on draft day; India could end up at 3b, 2b, and I would send him out as a shortstop and see how he fares.

Greyson: Are there any examples of players requiring teams with a poor player-development track record to pay a premium? So, a player requiring an extra 500k to sign with Baltimore, for example?
Keith Law: No.

Brandon: I assume you know your top 100 better than me going back and forth name for name so … who was the first non-ranked player drafted?
Keith Law: Mets took Simeon Woods-Richardson at 48, and the Pirates took Braxton Ashcraft at 51. Both were players I knew but didn’t put on the top 100. Grove was the first player taken I didn’t know, because he missed the whole spring after TJ.

Logan: Opinion on Nick Decker?
Keith Law: I drove up to see him and saw all of one swing in the game. Has power, good arm for a corner, strong kid, seems to know a ball from a strike, but we’ll see when he faces real pitching this summer.

Kev: Hi keith, you’re really effeminate. Love your work.
Keith Law: I suppose this is some sort of insult? You’ll have to try harder than that, bud. You’re talking to a guy who’s worn makeup for TV and done Periscope chats while wearing an apron.

Clint: Would the risk of Kyler Murray playing another full season of football have kept you from picking him in the top 20 of this draft?
Keith Law: I would have insisted on him giving up CTE-ball if I was paying him first round money.

Craig: With Turang, how much of his fall was him being a known quantity for so long that familiarity bred contempt and how much was that his ceiling just isn’t as high as ppl thought it was last yr?
Keith Law: He didn’t perform well at the plate over the last 12 months. When scouts started bearing down, the conclusion was that he’s not the hitter he’d been hyped to be.

Gregory: How would you change the draft to make it more appealing to casual fans?
Keith Law: Trade picks and get more players to the draft.

Jeff Ala: Did the Braves just get a steal in the 4th round with Beck?
Keith Law: No.

Clay, Rutherford : Should I be concerned that the Cubs took Hoerner in the first round, since Stanford has a reputation for messing with hitters’ swings? The recent track record of Cardinal hitters is lackluster.
Keith Law: I had him ranked just a shade below that, more because I don’t see the secondary skills at the plate (patience or power). High contact guy with high baseball IQ too and chance to stay at short.

Trevor : All the 1st round guys got talked up big time. The Dodgers kid not so much. Was that a huge reach in your mind?
Keith Law: Yeah, this is the other issue I have with the coverage – every first round pick was a future all-star, plus tools left and right, ready for the majors in a month, etc. It’s not possible that every pick was a good one. Ginn might have two pitches that grade out as 7s, but there’s disagreement about the delivery – I see violence that might make him a reliever, I know good scouts (not with LAD) who think it’s not a problem and he was maybe the best prep arm in the draft.

Mike: I know this is mostly draft, but you’ve always been a Derek Hill fan. He’s been great offensively since coming back from his latest injury. Have you heard/seen anything about him possibly figuring something out finally? Or should I give up that dream?
Keith Law: Had great reports from last August too, when he was healthy and started raking.
Keith Law: My last look at him this March wasn’t great, for whatever that’s worth.

Brian: Thanks Keith! Only reason I have insider. This may seem like a softball question but how does the draft pool work? Do teams get a certain amount of $ to spend? I’m a tiger fan and there were discussion about maybe signing someone other then Mize so they could do more with their pool? Could be way off but genuinely wanted to know how it works.
Keith Law: Right. You add up your slot values for all of your picks in the top ten rounds. If you don’t exceed that by more than 4.9%, you face no penalty. If you exceed it by more than that, penalties kick in, including potential loss of draft picks.

Jeff Ala: Mize or Kyle Wright higher upside and who would you take right now?
Keith Law: Mize.

Boston: Why do you think Weathers won’t be underslot?
Keith Law: Why would he be when he wasn’t falling very far if the Padres passed on him?

Chris: Will the London MLB games mean a possible visit to London for you?
Keith Law: Hoping so, yes.

Mark: What’s going on with Kumar? Any reason as to why he’s dropped
Keith Law: Vandy commit with big price tag and finished the season poorly, with some loss of velocity and a bad showing in his team’s final doubleheader.

Jason: What do you think of the brewers strategy to draft guys up the middle of the field? CFs, SS all day
Keith Law: That’s where the biggest positional value is.

Dave: On MLB network, they said Seth Beer has had trouble with wood bats. What are some reasons behind this?
Keith Law: Specifically, he hasn’t performed well in wood bat leagues/environments the last two years. (It’s not like, say, the wood bats and he don’t get along.) It’s a great approach with real power, but he doesn’t have exceptional bat speed.

Pat D: Think the Yankees stick to college players between now and Round 10 in order to offer overslot to Green?
Keith Law: I’d expect a college senior or three mixed in from here forward. I wonder if they still try to grab one more over-slot guy, maybe in round 11.

Todd: How rare is it for a player not even on the radar in high school to develop into a viable draft pick in college?
Keith Law: Not that rare. Strasburg went from undrafted out of HS to 1-1 out of college. Mize did the same. Rendon was undrafted out of HS too.

michael: hi keith, how much of a reach is Joey Bart to you? Is there a huge gap between your #2 prospect and Bart who I believe was ~#10?
Keith Law: A modest one. The big gap in my rankings was between Mize and everyone else.

Josh: How close was Kaiser to your top 100? (Don’t kill me if he was on it, I am chatting/reading while in a meeting!)
Keith Law: Wasn’t on it or that close.

Adam D.: How far down that bottle of rum did you get last night?
Keith Law: I stopped after the Periscope. I did have to be alert enough to write up that reaction piece.

Joe: Is it time for Tigers fans to be concerned about Matt Manning? I know he’s young and only in low-A ball, but his command seems to be going in the wrong direction year to year.
Keith Law: You can be concerned, but not to the point of giving up or calling him a bust. Still 20, lots of time to turn it around.

Mike: Is there a Forrest Whitley in this draft? A pitcher taken in the teens who could end up a stud?
Keith Law: Liberatore and Winn would be my guesses.

Allan: How much money did leaving Colorado make Cole Winn?
Keith Law: Maybe a million bucks? Getting away from the altitude, and also moving to somewhere scouts would see him more often.
Keith Law: I’ve still yet to go to Colorado to see an amateur player in 12 years of doing this. Saw Gausman at showcases, and then he went to school. Saw Bird at showcases too (he was Gausman’s catcher in HS). Winn would have been the first, but he moved.

Po: Was reading through your big board of the top of 100 and once again I am concerned about the A’s decision making. It seems they avoid Boras guys and expensive upside guys and take risky and cheap? Am I misreading that?
Keith Law: That isn’t accurate. And I certainly haven’t identified Boras guys anywhere so I’m not sure how anyone would know who they all are.

xxx(yyy): Is there a reason a player should withdraw from the draft? I assume that 99.99999% of the time it is a terrible move but is that wrong?
Keith Law: If a player withdrew for something like religious reasons, or a personal/family matter, then money shouldn’t be a factor anyway and the process could be an unwelcome distraction.

Robbie: As a UGA fan, I watched Keegan Mcgovern hit the ball hard all year, why is he not considered a draft prospect whatsoever anywhere i have read?
Keith Law: He didn’t have that great a year overall, and he’s a corner bat. Might be someone’s senior sign later today.

Slick Rick Hahn: Better OF Prospect, Luis Gonzalez (CWS) or Steele Walker?
Keith Law: Gonzalez, I think. Better tools. Walker had the performance but I knew some scouts who thought he was beating up on lesser competition.

Sean : No surprise that the Nats have focused on pitching in this draft. Any thoughts on the arms the Nats have drafted so far?
Keith Law: Really like their draft through round 4. Schaller is super intriguing – has the frame, body, fastball you want, just hadn’t pitched in two-plus years after TJ.

Kevin: What is your take on the Cape League? Time well spent for prospects and scouts ?
Keith Law: Absolutely.

Chris : I know some Oakland fans are freaking out about the Murray pick, but isn’t the point that he’s one of the very few players in the draft to have actual superstar potential, even if those odds are low and there is some bust potential attached?
Keith Law: I would say that is precisely the point.

Nathaniel: Whats the best/worst outcome for the Mets 1st round pick?
Keith Law: Best outcome is all-star CF. Worst, of course, is that he doesn’t reach the majors.
Keith Law: Cole Sands left his last start of the year with an injury, but the Twins just took him in the 5th round. That’s a mild surprise to me – maybe the injury turned out to be nothing.

Andy: In your last chat, you mentioned some first round guys who weren’t on your thought list for first rounders, and none of them turned out. Has there been a guy that you can recall, that you thought a team way overdrafted someone, that’s worked out well? I don’t mean having Mike Trout not ranked #1, but like a guy who you had 60, went 15, and has been an All Star/top prospect.
Keith Law: Oh all the time. Chris Sale is probably the most stark example; I killed the delivery, he went 13th, probably should have gone top 3. A lesser example is Joe Panik; I had him in the third round by my ranking, he went 29th, has 7 career WAR.

Rob: Not a draft related question, but long term who do you like more, Newcomb or Folty? And do you see the paces they’re both at dropping off pretty hard or are they both close to this good.
Keith Law: Folty. If you asked me to ‘buy’ one right now it’d be him.

Pete: Does Justin Dunn see AA by the end of the year?
Keith Law: I’m guessing so, but I don’t think he *has* to get there for the year to be a success.

Scott: Quick analysis on Beer was that he couldn’t hit w/ wooden bats and projects only as a 1B. Do you agree w/ that assessment?
Keith Law: DH for me. Not a 1b.

Adam: Is Carter Stewarts Curveball of the Adam Wainwright variety?
Keith Law: Literally the highest spin rate ever recorded on a CB.

Turner Watts: Has a relatively high draft pick ever been drafted in June and dealt at the trade deadline of that same year?
Keith Law: Can’t do that. First time these guys can be traded is November.

Doug: Are the Padres saving their money for late picks? Or is Xavier Edwards good enough to justify Weathers over Liberatore?
Keith Law: The gap between Weathers and Liberatore in my mind is just not that big, and I’m sure there are guys who had Weathers higher due to present command.

Andy: Scouting the stat line only, McKay looks ready for AA as a P, but not as a hitter. Now the Rays sound like they’re doing the two way thing with another guy. How does it work that they will inevitably progress differently with the different skills?
Keith Law: I think these situations will resolve themselves because the player will buy in to dropping one or the other.

Rick C: The Braves drafted Rendon out of HS. He didn’t sign.
Keith Law: You’re right – 27th round. I must be thinking of someone else.

David: What are the odds that someone outside of day 1 would be the #1 pick in your with hindsight draft on 2028?
Keith Law: Maybe 1 in 3? It’s happened a few times.
Keith Law: Oh, god, am I still doing this in 2028?

Kyle: Would Royce Lewis have been your top position player in this draft?
Keith Law: No.

BK: Who is Christopher Bec???
Keith Law: Senior sign. I’m guessing way under slot. I prefer his brother Mal.

Tim: I think I know the answer – but is there any reason to be concerned that players in A-ball are hitting Greene too hard? He’s getting Ks but that BABIP makes me worried his fastball is playing down this year. (yes I’m scouting stat line a bit).
Keith Law: I posted his season stats split into first five starts and last five. His BABIP has come way down.

Mark: Hi Keith, non-draft Q here. With the “can’t scout stat lines” caveat understood, anything about apparent improvement from Ryan McKenna at High-A to excite an O’s fan?
Keith Law: I’m hearing very good things about the bat. I’m pissed I couldn’t get out to see him last week in Wilmington because I was working on the mock etc. I’ll try to get him next time.

Craig: I have a good friend whose son is a HS freshman pitcher who is already getting noticed (85-87 MPH, still growing into his body). What’s the #1 piece of advice you would give him to ensure he has a great day 3 years from now?
Keith Law: Take at least 100 days off from throwing every year – not just pitching, but no throwing. And follow the MLB PitchSmart guidelines. even if it means saying ‘no’ to a coach.

Jon: Keith, did you ever play any wargames as a youth, like Avalon Hill produced?
Keith Law: No, board games are my thing but not the longer wargames.

Danny: Have you heard the Yankees have a deal with Hackenberg and do you think they could save enough from their top 3 picks to offer him around $1M?
Keith Law: If they had a deal with him they would probably have taken him already.

Kevin: Let’s say you have seen a player 3 or 4 times….wouldn’t that be considered SSS?
Keith Law: No.

Marsh: Rangers drafted a kid who weighs less than me (but not my much ;)) Is he that good? Easley?
Keith Law: Damion’s kid. He’s actually a good little player. Maybe not a ton of upside but tremendous instincts in the field. Made some money just by playing next to Gorman all spring.

Ted: Experience with a dutch oven? thinking of getting one but not sure how often will use
Keith Law: Love mine, use it all the time for braises and it is the best vessel for deep frying.

Dan: With guys like Singer and Liberatore still available the Orioles reached for Rodriguez at 11. Defensible, or completely mystifying?
Keith Law: I would have taken Liberatore, but not Singer. Don’t understand fans’ abject hate of this pick. Rodriguez may not have been the best guy available but he’s up to 97-98 with a hammer.

Will: What is your comp for Bren Spillane? First guy to OPS over 900 in D1 since Pat Burrell.
Keith Law: That can’t be right about his OPS. And Spillane is 1b only who did his damage in a bad conference. I had him more in the 4th-5th round.

TK: I know he was high on your big board, but should Swaggerty’s lack of production in a bad conference this year scare me as a Pirates fan?
Keith Law: It’s a concern, but if he performs as expected he never gets to pick 10.

Notice me Law-senpai: Is it just me or, apart from the Stewart pick, are all the Atlanta picks after really, really underwhelming?
Keith Law: It’s 3 picks after that. Beck was fine for that spot. I thought Jenista was a reach by half a round, and just don’t love him for an NL squad because of DH risk.

Dave: Parenting question: better for taking a kid to his/her first pro ball game, major league park or minor league park?
Keith Law: Minors, easily, but please get yourself behind the netting.

Jamie: Could you have handled the money, bus rides, culture shock and living on your own at 18?
Keith Law: I was on my own at college at 17 (17.25, to be baseball precise). I survived. But college would have been a way better experience had I been older. I would have made better choices about classes, applied myself more, and gotten way more out of it academically and socially had I been 21 or so.
Keith Law: OK, still got some stuff to do and then I have to start writing up every team’s draft results. Thanks so much for all your questions and for reading all my draft drivel the last few months. All 30 draft recaps will be up by the end of the week!