→ September 1, 2018
→ By

Stick to baseball, 9/1/18.

My one Insider/ESPN+ piece this week ranked the best tools among MLB players, which is probably my least favorite piece to write each year. And I held a Klawchat this week.

I reviewed the incredible new board game Everdell for Paste this week. It’s got a Stone Age vibe, but adds so much more to that worker placement framework, and the artwork is some of the best I have ever seen.

And now, the links…

  • Longreads first: There’s a new health scam out there, targeting desperate people like cancer patients, that claims that food-grade hydrogen peroxide can cure many ailments. There is no such thing as food grade hydrogen peroxide, which has never been proven to treat any disease and is very, very dangerous to consume at even moderate doses.
  • Esquire looks at the imminent global water crisis, caused by overuse, pollution, climate change, and unwise or even deleterious government policies. This, not Islamist terrorism, is the greatest threat to global stability for this century.
  • Alan Rusbridger, former editor-in-chief of the Guardian, has a new book coming out titled Breaking News, on how the business of news has broken the concept of news; his old paper has a lengthy excerpt that focuses on a major phone-hacking scandal within Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp.
  • Recode’s Kara Swisher interviewed OB/GYN and GOOP debunker Dr. Jen Gunter, which you listen to as a podcast or read in a transcript. It’s funny and also very telling about how patients use “Dr. Google,” and how people like Gwyneth Paltrow take advantage of the gullible and the desperate to line their own pockets.
  • Mother Jones investigates the broken federal student loan forgiveness program, which has had problems for years but has taken a bigger dive off a cliff under Betsy DeVos.
  • A few weeks ago I posted a story about a female NYU professor accused of harassing a male graduate student, after which many women stood up for her, the predator, not the victim. A graduate student who studied with that professor writes in the Chronicle of Higher Education that she believes the accuser, saying that Professor Avital Ronell is a bully while questioning her academic and feminist bona fides.
  • Conservative writer, evangelical Christian, and Iraq War veteran David French and his wife adopted a two-year old girl from Ethiopia in 2010. He writes for the Atlantic how he has seen attitudes of Americans shift towards hate against his daughter, his wife, and himself for daring to cross racial lines in the name of love. He also covers some policy changes from the current and previous Administrations that have discouraged such adoptions from outside of the United States.
  • BlacKkKlansman includes a line from David Duke where he mentions being a friend of technology pioneer and Nobel laureate William Shockley, one of the inventors of the transistor and founder of Shockley Semiconductor (from which the Traitorous Eight left to found Fairchild Semiconductor). I had no idea that Shockley became an inveterate racist shitstain and eugenics proponent.
  • The “age of privacy nihilism” is upon us, although I’d argue nothing has really changed – we’ve given away our data for decades, in exchange for the occasional coupon for 50 cents off Nutter Butters.
  • Mollie Tibbetts was murdered by a man because she dared to say no; that man was Latino, possibly in the U.S. illegally, so within hours of her murder, the white supremacists in power chose to politicize her death (which, I was told, we’re not supposed to do when a white man shoots up a school or a church). Her family is having none of it, and her father came out to show his gratitude for and support of the Iowan Latino community.
  • The Nordic countries’ economies are often held up, with good reason, as exemplars of Western democracies that use broad social safety nets and other progressive policies to produce high employment rates with low rates of poverty, homelessness, and crime. They also tend to score very high on economic “happiness indices,” but the BBC points out that such rankings obscure increasing mental health issues in those countries, especially among younger citizens.
  • The collapse of the Venezuelan state and economy has led to a growing refugee crisis in neighboring countries, with this Washington Post article focusing on the Brazilian town of Boa Vista.
  • The ongoing European measles epidemic has killed 37 people and sickened 41,000 – and remember, children can survive measles only to die of the virus a decade later due to an incurable condition called subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE).
  • Roland’s Market, the new Phoenix restaurant and collaboration of Chris Bianco and the Holguins (Tacos Chiwas), earned a very positive review from the Arizona Republic.
  • The Arizona Republican Party packed its Supreme Court, and just got a big win from their efforts, as the Court blocked a ballot measure that could have funded state schools with an extra $690 million. The proposed question had over a quarter of a million signatures. The governor who stuffed the Supreme Court is facing a challenge this November from David Garcia, a Democrat, a veteran, and an education professor at Arizona State. If he wins, he’ll be the first Latinx governor of Arizona in 44 years.
  • A neuroscientist discusses how skimming rather than deep reading can alter our brains for the worse.
  • This is simply perfect.

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→ August 30, 2018
→ By

Klawchat 8/30/18.

My review of the beautiful new worker-placement game Everdell is up at Paste.

Keith Law: Sayonara, tomorrow, now he’s blood on the ground. It’s Klawchat.

Go Go Gadget Hamate Bone: Any noticeable change to Luis Urias’ hitting profile since adopting the leg kick tweak?
Keith Law: No, not that I think he really needed one. If anything changed, it’s that he got to hit in El Paso.

Joe: Keith, is it fair to question Showalter’s handling of young players? He sat Sisco on the bench for long periods earlier in the year and now he is sitting Mullins to get a look at some guy named John Andreoli.
Keith Law: I think it’s fair, yes. He certainly seems like he’s never taken a liking to Sisco, at least. He hasn’t been the same with young pitchers, though – if anything he might have used them too much.

Dana: How stupid do the Yankees fans who booed Stanton in April look right now?
Keith Law: Any fans who boo players in April look stupid. I’m not big on booing players period, but every year, a handful of great players will get off to ‘slow’ starts. So to answer your question, they look grade 80 stupid.

Gene: Keith, a couple of contracts remain to be shed or survived, but is there any way to accelerate the rebuild in Baltimore? With their luck with the draft and player development, I can’t foresee any return to competitiveness within the next three to five years. The farm, with a few exceptions seems to be littered with spare parts, fourth outfielders, relief pitchers, and offensive pieces without defensive positions. Is there any light at the end of the tunnel?
Keith Law: They’ve drafted better the last few years, I think. Certainly a lot of arms in the lower levels right now. They need to do something more on the international front, of course. My argument has been that ownership waited too long to trade Machado, and as a result, the return was just OK, but seems unlikely to deliver them any cornerstones.

Pathmark: What is the optimal Sep/Oct use of Justus Sheffield in terms of what is best for him and the team?
Keith Law: I’d like to see him get some long relief outings. One, it’s a good way to break in a young starter. Two, what I have heard from multiple scouts this year is that he’s not showing the command he’ll need to be a mid-rotation starter or better. He’s super athletic and very smart, and the delivery is fine, so there’s no real reason he can’t get there – but he’s not there yet. Reps in the majors could help.

James: Before Chris Paddack was shut down his fastball was apparently touching 98. Is that just a blip or is that a newfound velocity post TJ?
Keith Law: I saw 95 or 96 in March. 98 wouldn’t shock me but I don’t think he’s going to pitch there. The question around his upside revolves around his breaking ball anyway, not his velocity. I don’t think he’s markedly different with a 92-95 mph fastball or a 92-98 mph fastball.

Pathmark: Do you watch the LLWS? Thoughts on the quality of play or perils of the excessive breaking balls?
Keith Law: I don’t watch it. Don’t care as much about breaking balls as I do about kids trying to throw too hard.

Nick: I read your recent report on Adam Haseley; is there reason to be concerned about the Phillies’ ability to develop hitters given your report as well as Moniak and Randolph’s struggles? Or is this just bad luck?
Keith Law: Neither was a great pick for his spot. I think if there’s been a weakness in the Phillies’ rebuild, it’s been in the draft. Their trades have been solid and their international amateur department keeps finding gold.

Joe: Good afternoon, Keith. Roy Halladay: Hall of Famer?
Keith Law: I’ve given my provisional ballot before – he’s on the bubble. I had seven definites for ten spots, I think, and then 6-7 guys I’d consider for the last three. He’s in the latter group.

Jason : As an Oakland fan I still can’t believe this team is competing. They are bringing up guys that I have never heard of and they keep coming. First off is this one of the worst lineups from a talent aspect that you have seen competing for a playoff spot this late in the season? Who should get credit for this (besides the players) front office? manager? organization as a whole?
Keith Law: You can credit all of those plus acknowledge they’ve had a lot of luck this year. They’ve collected a lot of guys who probably wouldn’t be as good without the juiced ball to help. They’ve had guys like Matt Chapman make enormous (but apparently very real) development leaps in the majors. Sean Manaea is 2 innings short of qualifying for the ERA title for the year, which is either luck or credit to the training staff or both. But also picking up discards for the rotation seems more like when the Yankees acquired Aaron Small and he had two months that were completely out of nowhere.

The Killer Klaw: There are a lot of ‘dudes’ that Padres fans want to keep track of. Should Tucupita Marcano be one of them?
Keith Law: He is; he was mentioned in my preseason Padres writeup, and it’s very rare for me to mention DSL guys at all because we really know virtually nothing about them.

Nick: If you’re Josh Donaldson, do you sign a one-year “prove it” deal in hopes you returns to form (4-5 win players) and sign a better deal in 2019? Or is that too risky given his age and injury?
Keith Law: He might not get any long-term offers after this year, so if he’s just getting one- and two-year deals he should consider taking the one-year deal and hoping he’s healthy enough for 140 games.

Reuben Amaro Jr.: Considering the Phillies have outperformed their run differential this year how would you approach next year if you were management? Do you think their young pieces will be ready to make that leap next year or would you target 2020 as the year to go all in? Asking for a friend…
Keith Law: I think they already started to go in with Arrieta and Santana; there’s no reason to stop now, especially in a huge free agent class with plenty of cash available. I do think they’ll have some real decisions to make, like whether JP Crawford, who seems not to have clicked with the new coaching staff, is part of the future or needs a change of scenery. I don’t think their top prospect arms are going to be ready till the middle of next year, which could also inform their decision-making.

Jed: Any info on Robert Puason? Top 2019 J2 guy?
Keith Law: I don’t follow that market, sorry.

The BigSauce: Eloy Jimenez raking and the call up watch is T- 1.5 days. Do they do the right thing and make the call for the next series home opener? Sticking in the central does Lovelady get the call too?
Keith Law: I think they’ll call up Eloy, since he’s already on the 40-man. No clue on Lovelady – he’s a reliever, not someone you manipulate service time on.

Trevor: I refuse to believe Arenado has 3 DRS this year when he’s never had less than 16 in a season. The baseline defensive stats are there so is the statistic flawed or is he having a down year defensively?
Keith Law: He’s been having a down year defensively. You’ve sort of made the argument from personal incredulity – it isn’t true because I can’t believe it’s true.

Trevor: Can we please give the creator of the opener a raise. Hearing the Braves announcers bash the idea, whilst citing Teheran’s 1st inning struggles and the Rays AL best ERA since it’s inception, is laughable.
Keith Law: Given what’s gone on this year down there, it’s a good night if those guys aren’t laughable.

Bill G: Hi Keith. Seems like expansion to 32 teams is inevitable. Would you favor 4 divisions of 8 teams, or 8 divisions of 4 teams (like NFL). Would you favor geographical alignment or a more traditional AL and NL. Thanks!
Keith Law: Fewer divisions. Adding divisions increases the chances of a sub-.500 team making the playoffs.

Abed: The Pirates farm system seems pretty barren, and I thought this before the Baz inclusion was announced. Now, outside of the core group (Keller/Hayes/Swaggerty, and to a lesser extent, Tucker/Cruz) is there anyone else worth getting excited over? Someone who has made a major leap in your eyes this year?
Keith Law: Cruz has made the biggest leap. Hayes has really established himself as at least a solid average hitter with a 70 glove. I might have said Calvin Mitchell earlier this year but he cooled off quite a bit and doesn’t offer any value beyond the bat.

Zach: I know Trevor Williams isn’t a 3.30 ERA (his 2018 figure) caliber pitcher, but going back to last season, as a starter, he sports a 3.99 FIP (50 starts). Is it stretching it to say he’s a high-3s/low-4s ERA caliber starter?
Keith Law: No, I don’t think that’s stretching it at all. Probably just about right.

Danny: Kevin Newman made his debut last week – a guy I know you absolutely loved coming out of the draft. His time in the minors has been a bit of a disappointment, but do you believe that he can still be a starting caliber middle infielder?
Keith Law: I do, but he has to bring some of the power he’ll show in BP into games more. He really hasn’t done enough to try to drive the ball. He’s going to make a ton of contact, he can play short, he’ll add value on the bases, but he needs to be more of a 35 doubles, 10 homers guy.

Ron: Hi Keith- How many more productive years of being a catcher would have made Mauer a HOFer? If he could of had 3 or 4 years more behind the plate, could he have knocked on the door? Too bad he had to move.
Keith Law: He might still get there. I could see him becoming a cause celebre among the stat crowd, because his career value requires more than a cursory look at the old stats.

Buddy: Surprised by Cardinals turnaround?
Keith Law: No.

J.P.: As we await your writeup on Manning (and the Senators/Wolves), were you pleasantly surprised by how he handled his Double-A debut or no?
Keith Law: No, I wouldn’t say that. He was fine, three average pitches, changeup might have been a 55. What I really liked was how they’ve gotten his delivery to make better use of his height. He extends way out over his front side now, and he must have some of the best extension in the minors now. That helped the fastball, which was 91-95 without a lot of life, really play up even in the zone. Hitters reacted like they didn’t have enough time.

John: Greg Bird drawing a lot of ire from Yankees fans. (You hate to see that.) Justified?
Keith Law: I think it’s been unfair of the org to talk him up as a future first baseman given the state of his defense even before the injuries. Let him DH and hope he hits like he did as a prospect – low average but tons of walks and 25+ homers.

Ted: How do you feel about the A’s strategy to target high-ceiling/high-risk players like Beck and Murray in recent drafts over other players that were generally deemed to be “safer” because they wouldn’t be able to afford these high-upside players on the open market? How do you feel about Beck as a prospect? Keep up the great work. Thanks.
Keith Law: I go back and forth on Beck; he’s only 19, and he struck out a lot less this year than I expected, but, damn, Gina, where the heck did the 70 raw power go?

Mike: Playing Azul with people who primarily work the top rows, how do you maximize your score in what ends up being a quick race to the finish?
Keith Law: Try to hit the big bonuses – the 10 point bonus for getting the same color in all five rows or the 7 points for finishing a column. I think those exist in the game to balance out the top-rows people (who suck, just play the fucking game right, people).

JR: Is the Klaw Factory hiring? Does it offer decent pay/benefits?
Keith Law: There’s one employee and he gets worked to death.

Justin: Shane Bieber’s having a respectable rookie season. Do you think his command is advanced enough that he can reduce the hard contact and BABIP issues as he goes around the league/learns hitters?
Keith Law: I think he can mitigate them enough to be a solid fourth starter. His stuff is marginal enough in today’s game that BABIP/hard contact will just be part of his game in most seasons.

Rob : From your pre-season review of the Mets farm system it seemed you liked the upside in the system assuming bouncebacks from injuries etc. Any updated thoughts based on how this MiLB season played out?
Keith Law: Several of those guys did bounce back, right? Dunn and Kay did. Peterson’s been very good outside of a dead-arm stretch. Lindsay has been a big disappointment (and got hurt again, I believe). Newton’s been a surprise. Kelenic and Woods-Richardson have both looked great in their debuts. Mauricio has made himself a Guy in the GCL. The farm isn’t the problem. It’s been a combination of bad roster management in the majors, ownership involvement, and for a while a manager who was just not up to the job.

Tristan: While acknowledging that being consumed by a Rookie of the Year vote is a bit silly, the race in the AL is quite interesting this year. Ohtani, Torres and Andujar all look like guys who’ll have good careers. And on a rate basis you can argue Ohtani has outhit the Yankee kids. He hasn’t played defense, though. Do voters give him credit for those 9 starts (and for being Amazing)? Would you?
Keith Law: Of course Ohtani should get credit for those starts. I would seriously object to any voter claiming they would only consider him as a pitcher or a hitter. You add up all the value of everything he’s done and compare him to the other candidates.
Keith Law: Oh, I have no ballot this year. How droll.

Paul: Is this offensive version of Matt Chapman here to stay? If so, what is your long-term projection?
Keith Law: I’m buying. Way improved approach at the plate. All-Star.

Bob Pollard: Know you’re high on Wander Franco, but am wondering what you think his ceiling is (apologies if you’ve noted this). Are we looking at a Lindor-type superstar SS?
Keith Law: Less of a runner, not the same defender, more average and more raw power. (Then again, Lindor is going to hit 30+ again this year, so I no longer know what average power looks like.)

JR: You buying Zack Wheeler stock? He’s on a very impressive streak. Possible he’s finally fully recovered from TJ surgery and this is who he can be going forward?
Keith Law: He’s looked as good as I can remember him looking since he was in the low minors.

Bighen: What’s the Mets 2019 plan if it doesn’t include spending serious money which just isn’t going to happen. You can squint and see a decent team if a few breaks go their way. You can also see a full blown disaster if 1 or 2 big things go wrong. Tough needle to thread
Keith Law: Agreed. If I were named their GM (that’s not happening, this is hypothetical), I’d shop deGrom for sure this winter, as his value will never be higher, and you pretty much have to use him to try to get some more impact into the system. I don’t think they’re a few breaks away from contention next year; they’re a lot of breaks away.

JR: SSS, but Amed Rosario has looked much better at the plate of late, which is encouraging. It seems like there have been a lot of top prospects that have debuted over the past few years and immediately played well, so when a top prospect takes some time to develop (which is fine), the hot takes come fast and furious. Oh, and it helps when they play you everyday at your normal position cough Dominic Smith cough.
Keith Law: Your middle point in there is the salient one: Not every great player performed in his first stint in the majors. Josh Donaldson made my top 100 list one year, bounced around via trades, had some injuries, didn’t hit that well at first, and became an MVP candidate in his late 20s. Even Mike Trout wasn’t Willie Mays in his first month or so in the majors at age 19. Just be patient.

Drew: If Madson and Gio are still in Washington come Saturday, will Mike Rizzo be guilty of managerial malpractice?
Keith Law: Too strong. Those guys have some real value to contenders. We’re not talking Jose Bautista here.

George : I feel like people are being way too quick on evaluating the Archer trade. Lots of good pitchers have bad months
Keith Law: Yes and give the Pirates an offseason to get to know the guy and work with him. I saw most of his last outing vs Milwaukee, and there was some really bad pitch selection in addition to the usual problems with location. You can’t get beat like that on sliders to lefties unless you are burying that sucker at his back foot.

Ted: The Sox have 3 third basemen, Devers, Dalbec and Chavis. Who should be the long term Sox third baseman and where should the others play or should they be traded?
Keith Law: Devers is the best overall player of the three and I would take him. Dalbec has emerged as a prospect, and can really play third, but he’s had a 30%+ K rate at every level of full-season ball, and I can’t fully buy into him as a big league caliber bat. Chavis can hit some but I’ve never liked his defense at third in the past.

Bruce: With all the second generation hitters taking prospect lists by storm nowadays, any reason for a Giants fan to get excited about Luis Gonzalez’s kid Jacob? Stat line this year doesn’t show much promise, but maybe you have more insight?
Keith Law: Thought he was a reach in the second round. Older HS kid too, turned 19 just after the draft, so he’s young but not THAT young. I thought he was power over hit, as did a lot of scouts I asked.

Darius: Archer for Meadows, Glasnow and Baz…one month in, does this look like a bad trade for the Pirates or too soon to tell?
Keith Law: Too soon to tell.

Jim: What is going on with Riley Pint? He hasn’t pitched in forever. Is he just done? Any chance he regains top 100 status down the line?
Keith Law: The story has been a forearm injury and then an oblique strain and then a paper cut and then he caught smallpox … and would it surprise anyone at this point if we heard he had TJ surgery? Not me. Huge arm and gifted athlete who has always had trouble throwing strikes. I heard he was looking worse earlier this year in the control department; maybe that was the injury’s fault.
Keith Law: I don’t foresee him being a top 100 guy unless he can find the plate.

Shuck Bowalter: What’s your hot take on Moncada? Future All Star, or all time over-hype bust?
Keith Law: Somewhere in between those two.

OoOoO: The Rangers have Taylor Hearn, Joe Palumbo and Jonathan Hernandez all at AA Frisco right now. Are any of them legitimate starting pitching prospects, or are they all relievers in your mind?
Keith Law: Maybe starter, probable starter, likely reliever.

Paul: Is there a specific reason the Mets aren’t bringing Alonso up? Is it a service time issue?
Keith Law: Where does he play?

Ben: Not that you would ever publish one, but do you have a list of worst tools in the majors in your head?
Keith Law: A few come to mind, yes.

Bobby Higginson: What Erie prospects impressed you most last night?
Keith Law: Great to see Castro live for the first time this year. Also Paredes showed what he always shows, dude can really hit. Alcantara might have a 70 arm. Manning I discussed above.

Evan: Saw you tweeted you were at Matt Manning’s game last night. Has your longterm outlook on him changed?
Keith Law: See above. More optimistic now that he’s getting that extension out front. An above-average breaking ball would be nice, but he has better feel for his changeup anyway.

Mike: I noticed you’ve touted Micker Adolfo a few times in the past. What kind of player could you see him developing into? Do you think there’s top 100 upside once he’s back on the field in 2019?
Keith Law: He’ll be someone I consider for the top 100 this winter.

Oscar: Has your outlook on Julio Urias’ potential comeback changed at all? Recent reports have him up to 94mph, but I know that’s not the be-all-end-all.
Keith Law: I don’t believe that, and it really doesn’t matter until he shows he can do that in game situations.

Rob : Javy Baez was named most popular player by little league world series players. Shouldn’t that be a sign to MLB owners and players that its OK to look like you’re having fun while playing?
Keith Law: Yes. Except if you look at MLB owners – the players aren’t the problem here, not overall – you don’t see a lot of people who look like Javy, do you?

Pat D: I was reading a story about the possibility of Elsa having a girlfriend in Frozen 2. A commenter said he had no problem with homosexuality being “accepted,” but objected to it being “normalized” to younger generations. I challenged him to define the difference in the terms and he said that something that isn’t most “common” means that it’s not normal. I ended the conversation right there, though he took that as a win for himself. Is there really any hope for progress with attitudes like that?
Keith Law: Reading the comments was your first mistake. You will not win with those people. They’re already a minority, and they will die off, with their outdated attitudes. LGBTQ+ acceptance is the new normal, as it damn well should be. I personally have never found some stranger’s orientation or gender identity to have any effect on my life. And there are people I love dearly in the LGBTQ+ community. I hope I can simply keep people who might be unsure where they stand on these issues from falling into the fallacious thinking of those who preach hate and bigotry.

Josh in DC: Aside from “let him have fun,” do you have any advice for my 9-year old son’s father, a man whose son is about to try pitching for the first time?
Keith Law: Don’t throw all out – throw comfortably hard, no harder.

Juwan: Assuming you view Soto and Acuna as the front runners for rookie of the year, how do you evaluate their respective candidacies? Acuna has the higher WAR, but Soto seems destined to finish with 20 or so home runs (perhaps he’ll take the record for a teenager), while having a .400+ OPS. Does the additional year of development for Acuna factor into your decision (as well as the teenage records Soto might set), or do you simply evaluate them based on objective performance this season?
Keith Law: I do consider a player’s age for RoY, since that’s an award designed to highlight a future star. I don’t think that award will be settled until the last few days of the season.

Mike: Is David Bote an every day player? He’s been a good story and I enjoy watching him but curious as to what your opinion of him is
Keith Law: I think so. Maybe not for the Cubs once everyone is healthy, but for someone, yes.

Bill: If you were the Braves would you look to offer a long term contract to Folty and buy out some his arb/FA years?
Keith Law: Yes, why not? He’s good, and those contracts have value if the player stays healthy.

Nat: Heading to Philly tomorrow for Cubs v Phils. Any recommendations for beer and/or BBQ in the area? Don’t want to spend an arm and a leg at the park.
Keith Law: There’s nothing right in that area – the sports complex is south of the city, accessible via subway, but there isn’t anything good nearby. I haven’t been but Village Whiskey in center city gets raves and might fit what you’re looking for.

HH: What, other than pesto, can I use basil for? I’m drowning in it this summer.
Keith Law: Caprese salad. Chiffonade it and toss it into salads. Throw some leaves on pizza if you make your own. Pesto freezes well too, although some sources suggest you make it without nuts before freezing.
Keith Law: Apparently it makes good ice cream too. I haven’t gone there yet.

Chad: It seems like the Padres are confident that Mejia can stick at C – supposedly his receiving has improved. With a lineup of Tatis, Urias, Mejia, Myers, Renfroe, and whoever else sticks, is it really that improbable that the Padres have an elite offense as early as next year?
Keith Law: Renfroe isn’t part of an elite offense, not with a career-best .309 OBP this year (and dropping). Myers hasn’t been consistently good enough for that either. And they’re going to play that replacement-level first baseman for whom two years and $20 million would have been an overpay. So it’s not terribly likely just yet.

Josh in DC: What are your feelings about expanded September rosters? As a fan, I hate them (too many pitching changes, for example). What’s your opinion?
Keith Law: I hate that part. I don’t hate seeing young guys get some service time, and exposure to the big league environment and coaching staff. I don’t hate seeing teams have more pitchers in total to spread out workloads. But having, say, only X pitchers available per game would go a long way towards keeping September games from running four hours and September box scores look like Russian novels.

Mac: Do you think Nick Solak will get serious consideration for your top 100 list? I get the draw backs. He’s not physical and doesn’t have tools that jump out at you but he does have an innate feel and approach to hitting that lets him play above his tools. He’s very much like Paul DeJong in that way. I think he’s going to be very good hitter for a long time.
Keith Law: No, definitely not a top 100 guy.

Pramit: If you were working in a front office for a team and the President/GM and/or owner didn’t want to call up a top prospect for service time reasons, what argument would you make in favor of calling up the player? How would you present it?
Keith Law: That he needs the development time in the majors. Vlad Jr is not progressing as a hitter in AAA right now (or as a fielder, but that’s another story). If you want him to get better, you promote him.

DanB Greenwich: hey Klaw…brWAR has Nola at 8.9 and DeGrom at 8.2. fWAR has DeGrom at 7.3 and Nola at 5.7. What causes that kind of discrepancy?
Keith Law: They don’t calculate pitcher WAR the same way. Fangraphs’ version relies on the pitchers’ peripherals and assumes league-average BABIP. Baseball-Reference’s version relies on actual runs allowed.

Andrew: My wifeis a big fan of Takenoko, Catan, and Lanterns, but tends to get turned off by overly complicated/complex games. Would you recommend Everdell for her?
Keith Law: This would be a half-step upgrade in complexity – but it doesn’t feel or play complex. It’s really a masterful design. And the components are stunning.

Jo-Nathan: Stetson Allie is sooo close to being a major leaguer and you just have to feel good for the guy; However there is no way this happens living off $1,100 a month over the past 8 years unless you have something like a $2.25 million bonus to supplement your income. What is the solution here, unionize?
Keith Law: I don’t think they can unionize, can they? If the MLBPA found a way to include them, that would be the best solution. Also, maybe more people should have called their Representatives over the rider MLB had the recipients of campaign contributions slip into the GOP tax bill.

Jim: Mark Vientos looks like one of the most exciting pieces in the Mets system. Do you think he can be an impact player at the big league level, or is it too soon to tell?
Keith Law: I do – I’m a buyer. I forgot to mention him earlier. Kelenic has looked so good early that he’s overshadowed Vientos through no fault of the latter.

Andrew: Hey Keith. I’m considering getting my MBA, and had Tepper on my short list of schools. How was your experience there? I’m looking at things from a challenge/knowledge standpoint rather than networking, for the most part.
Keith Law: I enjoyed my two years there and learned a lot. It’s a very quantitative program, which was unusual then and probably much more relevant today to more jobs. I will say Pittsburgh in the winter is the grayest place I’ve ever spent any time.

Wes: Is Austin Meadows’ performance in Durham anything other than SSS noise?
Keith Law: It is a SSS. 27 games, I believe.

Donald: If you worked in the Astros front office, how would you have handled the Osuna trade?
Keith Law: I would have opposed it, and if they’d made it anyway, I would have found another job.

Kevin w : Why are people so resistant to science? It’s what literally makes everybody’s life better/easier
Keith Law: Much of science denial is tied to a strain of religiosity that holds that what is written in holy texts is literally or at least primarily true, and thus adherents feel that science, by proving some of these beliefs to be false (like creationism), undermines religion. Of course, there are many people on both sides of the religion/science divide who argue that the conflict is not real or essential – that you can be a person of faith and still believe in science. Math is the fundamental language of the universe; you may simply choose to believe that a higher power created math.

Dylan Garner: Is Kolby Allard’s future in the MLB solely tied to him adding velocity/quality to his fastball? It seems impossible for him to succeed against major league hitters with 89-90 as his main pitch.
Keith Law: Not impossible, just an added challenge. His CB can be plus or better. He just has to get to it.

John: A few years ago, we couldn’t quantify much that catchers do defensively. Now there are data on framing. But it seems like there’s some other quality that goes to the relationship with the pitchers, which is very hard for statistics to capture. Is that accurate, or is that characteristic akin to clubhouse chemistry?
Keith Law: I think that we have a decent idea of the value of framing but not as strong an idea about where that value is generated or how sustainable changes in framing value or skill are. I’m loath to consider it too heavily in matters like awards voting or especially the Hall of Fame.

Kevin: If you could only watch one decade of baseball, as a fan what would you choose?
Keith Law: This one. Game’s never been better, folks.
Keith Law: Thank you all for reading this week and for all of your questions – I’m sorry I didn’t get to more but for whatever reason I’m a little slow on the draw today. I should be back again next week for another chat and will try to keep to a regular chat schedule through the rest of the regular season. Have a great Labor Day weekend, to those of you here in the U.S., and please be safe on the roads. Labor Day and Memorial Day are the two most dangerous weekends of the year on American roadways. If you’ve had even a little too much to drink, don’t get behind the wheel. I’d rather have you get home later, but safe, and here for the next Klawchat.

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→ August 30, 2018
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BlacKkKlansman.

Spike Lee’s return to directing with BlacKkKlansman has been met with wide critical acclaim and a positive commercial response, with the film earning back its reported budget in its first week of release. The film is based on the true story of African-American cop Ron Stallworth, who infiltrated a local chapter of the Ku Klux Klan while working in the Colorado Springs Police Department, surrounded by white officers, detailed in Stallworth’s memoir Black Klansman: Race, Hate, and the Undercover Investigation of a Lifetime.) Stallworth paired with a white partner who was his stand-in at KKK meetings, and eventually managed to speak to and meet David Duke, while revealing that there were members of the chapter who worked in law enforcement, the military, and, in two cases, NORAD. (Those last two were allegedly reassigned to Greenland or somewhere else in the Arctic.) Lee invents a few details and then intersperses the story with vignettes that are far more clearly targeted at the modern audience, closing with footage from the neo-Nazi rally and the eventual murder of Heather Heyer in Charlottesville last year. It’s a powerful story that offers no pretense about its ideals or what viewers should think and do in this era of New Racism, and is by turns terrifically funny and intense. It’s also a total mess of a film that reeks of the director’s self-indulgence and eventually works to undermine some of its most important messages.

BlacKkKlansman is at its best when Lee focuses the story on the investigation as it was led by two men, Stallworth (John David Washington) and Phillip “Flip” Zimmerman (Adam Driver). After about 30 minutes of prologue that gives some backdrop to the racial animus in the country at the time and gets Stallworth into the police department under its minority hiring initiative – and exiles him to the records room – he makes the fateful phone call in response to an ad in a local paper, looking for new members, from the local chapter of the Klan. Stallworth calls, tells the man on the phone how much he hates black people and every other group the Klan was known for targeting, and is invited to a meeting that Friday night, which is a problem given the color of his skin. He recruits Zimmerman to go in his stead, under his name, wearing a wire, which begins the investigation that, in reality, lasted nine months and uncovered those members’ identities. (The film creates a fictional, planned bombing that never happened, but that does allow for an intense climatic scene that drowns in its own bathos as the overwritten script piles clichés on top of a pivotal moment.)

Lee appears to have been given a free hand with the project, which was produced by Jordan Peele (who was set to direct it but gave it to Lee to work on other films), and I wonder if Peele felt unable or unwilling to confront one of the most important figures in black American cinema over some of the film’s many bombastic or incoherent sequences. There are gimmicks galore here, such as the isolated head shots of black audience members listening to Kwame Ture and the hallway scene near the film’s conclusion, that are nothing more than directorbation, the film equivalent of an umpshow, where Lee has to remind us that he’s at the wheel and we are watching an artist at work. One of the film’s many interludes from the Stallworth narrative itself is the Klan initiation rite, where Stallworth’s partner attends in his stead and David Duke presides, showing the racist 1916 film Birth of a Nation to whip the members (and their wives) into a frenzy. Lee intersperses that with scenes from a black student union meeting at the local college – I think it’s University of Colorado at Colorado Springs, but wasn’t sure if it was named as such – where a man, played by Harry Belafonte, tells the story of the lynching of Jesse Washington in Waco, Texas, in 1917. Belafonte’s character was a close friend of Washington’s, but the character and the meeting appear to be fabricated for the film, although the grotesque torture-murder of Washington was very real, attended by thousands of whites as if the castration, mutilation, and slow immolation of a black teenager were merely the day’s entertainment.

The unexpected star of the film isn’t Washington – yes, that’s Denzel’s son – but Driver, who delivers a nuanced, two-sided performance as a cop who finds his stolid attitude that any case is just part of the job affected by his exposure to such inveterate hate, while also posing as a very convincing racist, anti-Semitic zealot. (Zimmerman’s character is a non-observant Jew, but the real undercover officer, known only as “Chuck” in Stallworth’s memoir, was not.) He’s so magnetic in the role that the film lags when he’s out of the dialogue, which I’d say is the opposite of the effect he has as Kylo Ren in the Star Wars franchise. Washington is fine, but isn’t charismatic enough to be the center of the film, and he’s often overshadowed by others on screen including Driver; Topher Grace as a dead ringer for David Duke; and Laura Harrier as Patrice, Stallworth’s (fictional) love interest and President of the Black Students’ Union in the film. Corey Hawkins has a small part earlier in the film as Ture that is a clinic in delivering a rhetorical speech, although it’s again blunted by those camera tricks Lee employs to remind us he’s in charge.

For a film with a deadly serious subject, BlacKkKlansman doesn’t skimp on the humor. There’s a Wire reference near the start of the film that had me laughing very loudly – and I was the only one in the theater who did so – although I was disappointed not to hear Paul Walter Hauser drop an “incorrect” somewhere to nod to his scene-stealing performance in last year’s I, Tonya. The allusions to our modern era of ‘very fine people’ can go too far – Stallworth telling his white sergeant that Americans would never put an openly racist person in the White House is a bit too on the nose – but work well when Lee steps back and lets the dialogue and/or action show us how little has actually changed. An early scene when Patrice and Ture are stopped for driving while black and then threatened and assaulted by the officers, while also fictional, is extremely effective for how it just tells a story and lets the audience connect the dots. The telling of the Washington lynching might have been more effective as a straight scene, rather than one cut back and forth to the frothing Klan members watching and cheering on Birth of a Nation. The film just needed less of these trappings and more of the basics. The scenery, the clothes, and the hairstyles all set the scene incredibly well; even little touches like background colors in offices or the weaker lighting in some of the scenes in Klan members’ houses (so the film looks like movies or TV shows from the time period) contribute to the atmosphere. The one gimmick that really works, the transition to Charlottesville footage, with a clip of Trump referring to violent neo-Nazis as “very fine people” just in case anyone still wondered where his sympathies lie, is a masterstroke – but it’s the only gimmick BlacKkKlansman needed. Instead we get a half-dozen on top of that, so by the time you get to the end of the film, you’re exhausted from trying to figure out where any of this is going.

Note: The Slate piece discussing what’s real and what’s fictional in this film was essential in writing this review.

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→ August 29, 2018
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Word by Word.

Until just last year, if you wanted to read a popular non-fiction book about dictionaries, there was really just one title – The Professor and the Madman, the runaway hit by Simon Winchester that tells the story of the strange relationship between James Murray, the primary editor of the first Oxford English Dictionary, and, Dr. W.C. Minor, an erudite murderer who contributed countless citations for words in the book while writing from the Broadmoor psychiatric hospital. The book was more about that partnership than the creation of the dictionary itself; Winchester followed it up with The Meaning of Everything to tell the rest of the story of the OED’s creation, but it lacked the verve of the first book.

Kory Stamper, a lexicographer who worked for Merriam-Webster for about two decades, has now contributed to this niche with a ribald and totally fascinating book about her experiences there and what really goes into the making of a modern dictionary in Word by Word: The Secret Life of Dictionaries, which turns what might appear to be a staid subject into almost a romp through the process of making and revising definitions. That process is changing rapidly in the digital age, and Stamper seems to have hit this topic at the perfect time, right up to a description of the staff cuts at M-W that happened just a few years ago (right before her departure, I think), and to a last chapter on the way lexicographers – people who write and edit dictionaries – now have a much different role, one that has them interacting with readers more than before and in more direct fashion. With Merriam-Webster also making aggressive moves on to social media – their Twitter account is a must follow, as their subtweet game is a grade 80 for me – and re-establishing itself as the preeminent brand in its space even as Google tries to obviate dictionaries completely by defining words on page one of search results, it’s an ideal time to examine and reconsider the importance of dictionaries in the lives of anyone who loves or lives by language.

Word by Word doesn’t have a straight narrative, but there are consistent themes running through the book that tie widely disparate chapters together, none more strongly than the innate love of words and language that connects lexicographers and folks, like me, who still find pleasure in getting lost in a dictionary. (I was one of those kids who, when bored, would pull the dictionary or a volume of our World Book encyclopedia off the shelf and read pages at random.) Stamper uses those ties to walk readers through and around the dictionary’s essential contents, such as the way definitions are written, the structure and purpose of etymologies, and how dictionaries handle thorny matters like how to handle offensive words or when to even identify words as such (in the chapter “Bitch”), how to ensure that definitions aren’t unintentionally biased (in the chapter “Nude” – think pantyhose), and how to handle words that some people don’t think are words (“irregardless” – not a proper word, but because it’s a word people use, it has to be in the dictionary). I’m sort of amazed at how much flak Stamper reports getting from readers who believe that the dictionary has the authority to control the language, like the Académie Française, or even to alter society. The chapter on the word “Marriage” revolves, of course, around Merriam-Webster’s internal debate over how to handle same-sex marriage – first acknowledging it in a second definition, and eventually simply defining it, as they do now, without regard to gender or identity: “the state of being united as spouses in a consensual and contractual relationship recognized by law.” There’s a usage note at that link, discussing the controversy and saying that “This is not an issue to be resolved by dictionaries,” although it’s clear that no one ever reads the intro or the usage notes.

Stamper has a prodigious vocabulary, which is hardly surprising, and writes with a mixture of the erudition and ease of a David Foster Wallace, mixing high and lowbrow humor with aplomb, and never dumbing down her prose or patronizing the readers. This is an unapologetically smart book for people who don’t blench at obscure words or mind a didactic or technical discussion of word origins or how best to phrase a definition. It’s also laugh-out-loud funny in many places, in part because Stamper can really craft a good story, and in part because some of what she describes – reader feedback, in-house arguments, even an escapade with the cleaning crew messing up her notes – is just so ridiculous. And throughout it all is a genuine love of words, one I truly share. I still write down new words I encounter in books – ouroboros is one I recently found – so I can look them up, and have a little notebook with those words and their definitions because maybe some day I’ll need one of them. Even if I don’t, I still have them and can appreciate them for their own sake. I think Ms. Stamper would approve.

Next up: Madeline Miller’s The Song of Achilles.

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→ August 27, 2018
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Kerala.

The family board game Kerala: The Way of the Elephant first came out in 2016, and I tried it for the first time at Gen Con 2017, jumping into a game of a few friends who needed a fourth player, but I hadn’t scored a copy until just last week. It’s a very light, fast-playing game with a decent amount of luck involved, but the way the turns go, every player is going to have to cope with the randomness in the same way, and ultimately the game plays out as a sort of competitive puzzling match where each player has to build out his/her set of tiles to maximize points and minimize penalties in the same way.

Each Kerala player gets two elephant tokens and a start tile, all in the same color, with five colors total in the game (the game plays two to five, but it’s best with at least three). On each turn, the start player draws one tile from the bag – 100 tiles if there are 5 players, slightly fewer for lower player counts – for each player, and then players select tiles from those drawn to add to their tableaus. You can only add a tile next to one of your two elephant tokens, and then move the token on to the new tile. Then the start player moves around the table, so over the course of the game you should pick first through last a roughly even number of times.

The catch in Kerala is in the scoring, of course. There are five colors of tiles, and you want to try to create one area for each color in your tableau – if you have two separate areas of green tiles, you will have to choose one to discard at game-end, losing two points for each tile you lose. (You can have two areas in your start color.) Most tiles have one to three elephant symbols on them, and you’ll score a point for each symbol on tiles you haven’t discarded in the end-game scoring. You also need to have at least one area of each of the five colors at game-end, or you lose five points for each color you don’t have.

There are three types of special tiles in the bag, and they can be extremely valuable or utterly useless, depending on when in the game they appear and what your board looks like. One allows you to relocate any tile you’ve already played to the table; otherwise a tile you’ve placed can’t be moved for the rest of the game. One allows you to jump either of your elephants to anywhere else on your tableau, which can be very useful if you’ve boxed one of your tokens into an inconvenient spot. And the third type has two colors on it, one covering most of the tile and one touching a single edge; you score five points at game-end if you match the edge color to the tile adjacent to it on that side.

Kerala allows you to stack tiles on top of each other rather than just adding to the edges of your tableau, which can help you connect areas or cover tiles that would lose you points, but can also cost you more points if you have to discard an entire stack – it’s two points per tile you discard, not just for the stack – and potentially traps your elephant somewhere that makes it hard to place more tiles. You can also pass twice per game, choosing not to take any available tiles; when you do so, you lay one of your two elephant tokens on its side. You do get one point at game-end for elephant tokens still standing, although it’s generally worth losing that bonus to pass on tiles that you can’t place without incurring the two-point penalty.

Rounds can easily take under a minute, and you can play a whole game of Kerala in about a half an hour, unless you have a player who hems and haws over every little choice (I know a few of these, but I’m not one). It’s listed for ages 8 and up and I see no reason an 8-year-old or even a child a bit younger couldn’t play this with a little advice from an adult – you’re matching colors and just lightly planning ahead, but there’s only so much strategy you can employ in a game that gives you no warning or way to predict what tiles might be available. Kerala is also a bit unusual in that the designer is a woman, Kirsten Hiese: Board game design is an extremely male-dominated field, and if you see a woman’s name in the credits, it’s usually either as co-designer or as the artist. My #1 game at Gen Con this year, Nyctophobia, was designed by a young woman, Catherine Stippell; Visitor at Blackwood Grove, another game I didn’t get to demo there, earned some positive chatter, and its lead designer is Mary Flanagan (also the lead on Monarch, a game with three listed designers, two of whom are women). But this is rare, and there’s no good reason for it, which to me is all the more reason to try to boost a game like Kerala, one that is fun and easy to bring out for the whole family to play, and that oh-by-the-way happens to be designed by a woman.

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→ August 25, 2018
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Stick to baseball, 8/25/18.

I had one Insider/ESPN+ piece this week, scouting notes on Tampa wunderkind Wander Franco and some Yankees & Rangers prospects, and held a Klawchat on Thursday.

I reviewed the gladiator-themed deckbuilding game Carthage for Paste this week. That’s the last of my pre-Gen Con reviews; I believe everything I review the rest of the year will either be from games I got/saw at Gen Con or that were released afterwards.

I’m about due for a fresh edition of my free email newsletter, to which you may wish to subscribe if you enjoy my ramblings.

And now, the links…

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→ August 23, 2018
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Klawchat 8/23/18.

My Insider/ESPN+ post on Wander Franco, Luis Medina, and other prospects is now up.

Keith Law: Tell my friends to call me; I ain’t accepting no letters. Klawchat.

tony: is it starting to become the time for the yanks to give up on greg bird for 2019? he’s been very bad. Bryce has been taking grounders at 1b…
Keith Law: I’ve never bought Bird as a 1b. I think he has value as a DH, low average with walks and power. Harper at 1b wastes his athleticism.

PhillyJake: Trevor Williams of the Pirates has a 3.44 ERA and a 4.33 FIP. Yet, with the Pirates being a notoriously bad fielding team, wouldn’t one expect the numbers to be reversed, in which the fielding would hurt his ERA and his FIP would be lower?
Keith Law: Not necessarily – one pitcher may happen to have good fortune or results with a bad defense. It usually evens out in larger samples but not always.

Michael: Is baseball in a better place than it was 10 years ago? 20 years ago? 50 years ago?
Keith Law: Way better place. It still has problems, and faces some ongoing challenges, but the sport as a whole is healthier than it’s ever been.

J.P.: Would Wander Franco be considered a top 25 prospect in all of baseball right now, or is that being too generous?
Keith Law: He was already top 20 in my midseason update.

Tom: Hi Keith – have you ever posted anything on Twitter (either a tweet you fired off quickly or a response to someone on there) that you regretted? I am not asking this with anything in mind by the way. I am legitimately curious.
Keith Law: Yep, absolutely. I’ve deleted some stuff right away. I’ve had a few tweets for which I later apologized, but often left up as a record of my mistake. There’s one in particular that still bothers me, even though I deleted it within 15 minutes. It was thoughtless, literally – I did not think about how it might upset someone specific that I know who had just been through a tragedy. I took it down.

Depressed Mets Fan: Could Pete get the call from Vegas next month? I need someone to get me excited again, and he could be the guy.
Keith Law: Alonso’s a solid prospect, but Mets fans who keep trying to insert him into the “call this guy up, dammit” conversation around Vlad Jr and Eloy are probably setting themselves up for disappointment.

Frank: Would you consider the Rays a top 5 system right now?
Keith Law: No, but I also won’t spend much time parsing systems until the winter.

Eric: Will we ever see a short season/rookie ball guy get awarded Milb POY in the experts’ eyes? Obviously someone like Franco would have a case in a year in which Vladdy Jr had graduated.
Keith Law: You’d be basing it on something like 50 games. That’s hard to support.

Frank: I’m guessing your review of Luis Medina will be less than favorable. Future RP?
Keith Law: Dude’s walking 11 per 9. Real hard to look at that and say “starter.”

ROY Speculator: Acuna or Soto?
Keith Law: Yes, definitely one of those two.

Nate: Late 2019 a realistic ETA on Pache? Assuming at that time he’s in CF and Acuna in a corner
Keith Law: Yep, that’s fair. Glove is ready now. Bat has come along quite well of late.

Ron: ETA of Lewis and Kiriloff to majors? Late 2019 or is that moving too fast? Thanks!
Keith Law: I’d put Lewis a year behind that. They’re separated by a year, and Lewis has more work to do on defense – if he stays at short at all – than Kirilloff, who is clearly a corner OF.

Ben: Is this the most impressive the Appy League as a whole has been, in your memory?
Keith Law: Two scouts told me they felt the league was weak this year. I only saw that one game.

D: Highly recommend the book American War by Omar El-Akkad. No question, just that rec.
Keith Law: Oof, cli-fi. That’s tough sledding for me. I’ll put it on my list, though.

addoeh: Has there ever been a more successful “witch hunt” than Mueller’s? Lots of folks in the President’s world that are made of wood and weigh the same as a duck.
Keith Law: Cohen even turned Gingrich into a newt. And he hasn’t gotten better.

Nate: The White Sox have had a brutal season with prospect injuries. Would you say they are still a top 5 system?
Keith Law: See above. I don’t like giving flash opinions like that when the question requires more thorough study.

Dave: It looks like the Mariners are good but not good enough. Also old with a bad farm system. How do they approach yet another rebuild?
Keith Law: My guess is they go for it again this winter, but I have no idea what their plan is. A rebuild there is going to take a long time, and they could be Houston-bad for several years.

Eric: How surprised are you that guys like Touki, Allard and Wilson got the call ahead of a more seasoned guy like Wright? Scratching my head at that one. Please enlighten me.
Keith Law: Wilson is the one that surprised me, because he was farthest away from 40-man status of any of those four.

Jeff: Keith – In the past, you’ve stated that Dodgers manager Dave Roberts (and I assume by extension his staff) have not done a good job of developing young pitching. Does the success of Walker Buehler change that analysis at all? PS: Sorry for the re-post
Keith Law: That’s one guy, with elite stuff, so no, it doesn’t. Losing Josh Bard helped them, though.

Brian: How does Jordan Hicks – who routinely throws 102, 103 – have “only” 7.7 K/9? Is it lack of command with his secondary pitches (so guys sit on his fastball)? Lack of deception or movement? Something else? And related: do you think he CAN be a lights-out closer in the future?
Keith Law: It’s pretty straight and hitters do tend to pick it up enough to sit on it. He’s really athletic and I think still has plenty of room for growth in command and feel for using his offspeed.

Tim: Vidal Brujan went 3-3, 2 BB, 2 HRs, 4 R, 5 RBIs and 3 SB yesterday. Incredible game aside, what kind of prospect is the kid?
Keith Law: Above-average regular. Power may not be part of his game, but he can really hit and has legit OBP skills.

Dan: What did you think of Kopech’s cameo? (We can’t call it an outing, unfortunately. Damn you, Mother Nature.)
Keith Law: Stuff looked great. Way too fastball-heavy.

Rob: How will it eventually shake out for the Rays between Franco, Adames, Fox, and Brujan
Keith Law: Adames is two solid years ahead of the rest of them. In the unlikely event that all four guys work out as we hope, they’ll figure it out, but the odds are that someone will fall off along the way due to injury or non-development. Of that group, Fox has the furthest to go, and I feel best about Franco, obviously.

Lee D: Turns out Trump didn’t even need to go to Moscow to collude with someone to influence the 2016 election. Will the Cohen confirmation of this collusion move the bar on the mid-terms, or are voters too entrenched in their camps?
Keith Law: I have seen very little indication that any Trump voters are the least bit affected by this news. The hope for those of us who want him out or at least stopped is that enough undecided or third-party voters show up in November to tip Congress blue.

Bobby: Not sure if you have watched him recently but do you think the Severino struggles are just a small sample size blip or is there perhaps an underlying cause (mechanical or physical)?
Keith Law: Fastball and slider have looked very flat on TV, for whatever that’s worth. It’s always possible that he’s hurt, but it’s also been 6-7 starts and he hasn’t said anything.

Bob: Issac Paredes is having a productive late season debut in AA at age 19. Do you think he has a chance to be a 3-4 WAR player at either 2B or 3B? If not, what’s keeping him from having that kid of upside?
Keith Law: That’s probably about right. I don’t think there’s much growth left there – he’s advanced for his age, but physically doesn’t have much projection.

Nate: Looks like Waters is starting to heat up after slow start following promotion (I know, I know, MiLB stats don’t matter). Is he a potential Top 100 guy in next year or so?
Keith Law: I think consensus within the industry is that he is.

Mac: It’s really disingenuous when you say GMO’s haven’t been proven to be harmful in any way, in fact, you sound more like a lawyer. The science is far from settled. Do you ignore the unethical history of Monsanto, or the fact that dozens of countries (including France, Italy, Russia, Mexico, and Australia to name a few) have full or partial bans on GMO’s?
Keith Law: It’s not “disingenuous;” it is accurate. They haven’t been proven to be harmful in any way, and the science is, at least, way more settled than you imply. Monsanto’s ethics do not affect GMO safety. Bans in other countries do not affect or reflect GMO safety. The U.S. banned absinthe for a century on bogus ‘evidence’ of its effects. We also still ban sodium cyclamate, an artificial sweetener that has the benefit of being heat-stable, despite a lack of evidence of toxicity or carcinogenicity. Meanwhile, there is still zero research showing GM foods are harmful; your body has no idea whether that C12H22O11 you just stirred into your coffee came from GM sugar cane or non-GM.

Bob: What’s keeping Colton Walker from being a top 100 prospect and projecting as an above average regular?
Keith Law: Questionable defense, and questions whether his bat will play outside of extreme hitter’s parks. All three teams for which he’s played play in very hitter-friendly environments.

dan: I apologize if you’ve answered this before (or wrote on it); have you read any CS Lewis?
Keith Law: I read the Lion, the Witch Hunt, and … no, wait, that’s not it. You know the one I mean. I read it maybe ten years ago and was bored by it.

KS: I know it’s early, but any reports on how Bohm looks?
Keith Law: I had unflattering reports from pro scouts who got their first looks at him in pro ball.

Jeffrey: Regarding a question from a few weeks ago: eliminate the Confederate flag, and the wedding you attend has the groom and groomsmen equipped with sidearms. Do you still walk out?
Keith Law: Hell yeah.

Oscar: Any info on the 2019 J2 class yet?
Keith Law: I don’t track or cover that.

Ron Dog: Will you be using the term “front hole” instead of vagina?
Keith Law: This was such a dumb non-troversy, pushed by the same dumb white nationalist sites. That term showed up in a sexual health manual that was aimed, in part, at trans women. The group that published it even clarified that they weren’t changing terminology or eschewing the use of the word ‘vagina,’ but why bother with facts when you want to own the libs?

Mike: Two things about your pizza list last week. 1) you should give Vecchias in Phoenixville a try if your up that way. 2) in the comments you mentioned not being a big fan of Pepe’s style. That’s the great pizza I grew up with. I’m curious, what would you call that style?
Keith Law: That’s New Haven style. It’s fine – I don’t dislike it – but it’s not my favorite.

Dmitry: Love your stick to baseball links! Would trading Andujar to Braves for pitching and signing Manny be possible for the Yanks?
Keith Law: Sure, it’s possible. At this point I’m not sure what pitching would be available and of interest to them.

Mike: Who has a better chance to overachieve and become an above average 2B – Shed Long or Kevin Kramer?
Keith Law: Kramer has the better chance. Long is maybe a 40 defender at second.

Brett: I know he is 25 and not really a prospect per se, but could Joshua Jackson have any success in the majors?
Keith Law: Trenton guy? I don’t think so.

Brandon Warne: As best as you can recall, who is the prospect who most exceeded your expectations while you’ve been doing this?
Keith Law: Altuve, probably. I did have him on a midseason top 50, but he’s a good example of someone even his own team underestimated. And how could you not? He’s a unicorn. A very little unicorn.

Dr. Bob: Wil Myers got hit in the face by a ground ball at 3b. Can someone remind me again why the Padres just had to sign him?
Keith Law: Or had to sign Hosmer to force Myers off first.

John: What deranged sociopath decided to “double stuff” the Oreo, a cookie that had known perfection since 1912? This is the abomination that should unify our opposition, as members of Planet Earth
Keith Law: I completely agree. The ratio of the original was perfect.

AJ: Hey Keith, flu shots for kids under 1 year old? Good or bad idea?
Keith Law: Minimum recommended age is 6 months.

John: What have your thoughts been on Mike Shildt so far?
Keith Law: I’ve said this in a few spots, but his best attribute is being not Mike Matheny. It seems like some of the younger guys who didn’t fare well under Matheny are faring better under Shildt. That could be noise, but given Matheny’s weird dislike of Kolten Wong, my gut says it’s signal.

Brandon Warne: Would you rather have Tyler Austin or Greg Bird going forward?
Keith Law: Bird. I have a soft spot for Austin but he’s never gotten all the way back after that lost year-plus with wrist injuries.

Brian: Heard on radio that Padres FO sees Urias as a Marco Scutaro comparison. Any thoughts?
Keith Law: He’s better than that.

Scott: You are higher than Bryse Wilson than most. What do you see him as a few years from now?
Keith Law: #3 starter with a chance to be a #2.

JR: Keith Law, Circa 2017 – writes Smart Baseball. Keith Law, Circa 2019, starts touting Wins, RBIs and Saves. Everyone wonders what happens. ESPN releases following statement: “We learned Keith Law has sometimes had significant memory issues in other situations where he had prior extensive knowledge of events. He has also periodically taken medicine that can negatively impair his memory, concentration & focus”
Keith Law: This is true, assuming rum counts as a medication.

Josh: Hey Keith, wondering if I could get your thoughts on Keegan Akin. His control has been a slight issue but he’s been killing it for Bowie all year. Is #3 starter a reasonable ceiling projection for him?
Keith Law: I’d take the under on that. I’ve never seen him throw with the velocity he supposedly can have.

Tim: Who is better in 5 years…Dom Smith or Peter Alonzo? How good are they?
Keith Law: I think Smith is the better hitter and way better 1b. Both are regulars.

Mike: Keith that change up kopech threw…if that’s what it is wow. I guess I don’t have a question but let’s just acknowledge how filthy that was. Thanks!
Keith Law: His secondary stuff is legit. He needs to throw it more.

John: What is Nolan Gormans ceiling?
Keith Law: Impact middle of the order bat. More power than OBP/contact skills.

John: How would you rank the young arms up with the Cardinals now? (Flaherty, Weaver, Gant, Gomber, Ponce De Leon, Hudson)
Keith Law: Flaherty is a full grade above any of the others. He’s the only surefire starter in the group.

RSO: Where would Victor Victor Mesa land in the prospect rankings once he signed with a major league team?
Keith Law: If that’s a top 100 question, the answer is probably not on it. I’ve heard elite defender, questions on the bat.

Frank: Now that 2018 playoffs appear out of reach, what do you think of Davey Martinez going forward? He appears to be in over his head, yet his players seem to like him. Is he a just a good bench coach that got hired for the wrong role? Or do you see him eventually becoming a good manager?
Keith Law: I think he might be in over his head, but I can’t blame their season on him. Too many injuries and underperformances to pin on the manager.

AJ: How would you handle the Touki, Bryse Wilson, Gohara, Fried group of pitchers when the Triple A season ends?
Keith Law: With all four on the 40-man, I’d have them all up in September even just for long relief work, maybe setting up some tandem starters. Good for development and for Anthopoulos et al to get some in-person looks to determine if all are part of the team’s future.

Juan : Do you think Cease will stick as a SP long term?
Keith Law: Yes, health permitting, I think he’s a definite starter.

Dave: K-Law, you’ve never steered me wrong on food recommendations. Any updates on where to eat in Charleston and/or Savannah? Husk is a given.
Keith Law: I have a long list of places in Charleston I want to hit, but haven’t been there in years.

Dr. Bob: Harrison Bader is leading NL rookies in WAR, mostly from defense. Didn’t have the splash of Acuna or Soto. ROY candidate?
Keith Law: No, because (I think I may have said this before) WAR can be misleading with players who are platooned, and don’t get as many AB against their weak side. I wouldn’t vote for Bader on the basis of AB he didn’t get over guys like Soto or Acuna who played every day.

Andrew: Is McNeil looking like a real option to be an above average 2nd baseman? Was his lack of profile in the minors more an injury issue than a talent issue? Seems to be a legit bat.
Keith Law: Tiny sample size.

Mike: I’m a diehard Cubs fan but also not a garbage human so the trade for an unrepentant homophobe like Murphy gives me an ick-factor when rooting for my team. It’s not quite as gross as Chapman in 2016 but it’s still not good. I tend to think of Theo as far more progressive than a lot of baseball people but I guess not. Are there any teams who would actually not sign/trade for an guy who will help on the field but is backwards off of it?
Keith Law: Yes, there are several such teams, but they don’t talk about it. I had multiple GMs reach out to me before the draft to say they had taken Heimlich off their boards, but they didn’t want it publicized. I don’t blame them – better to do it than to talk about it. You don’t need publicity for doing the right thing.

dan: Out of Hudson, Gant, Gomber, Poncedeleon, Weaver; who has a legit chance to be above-average starters/
Keith Law: None of them, to me. All back-end guys or relievers.

1986 Eric Davis: If the Astros were to call up Forrest Whitley, do you think he could be a dominant bullpen piece, and would he be eligible for the postseason?
Keith Law: Yes, and apparently yes on the latter, which i had wrong earlier this season.

B Mand: If I remember correctly, you always believed Bogaerts had more power than he showed his first couple years in the majors. Is this type of season what you expected? 20-25 HRs and lots of doubles.
Keith Law: If you’d asked me while he was in A-ball I would have said 30 homers, so I guess not quite, but I’ll take it.

John: Corey Ray seems to have had a great season- has his stock risen?
Keith Law: I loved Ray in the draft, but he has not had a great season, not with a .330 OBP and near 30% strikeout rate. I’ve heard from scouts that he’s selling out to hit for more power, which is fine on its own, but can’t come at the expense of getting on base.

Tim: Has Amed Rosario disappointed you thus far/about righted you thus far/exceed your expectations thus far?
Keith Law: Disappointed, but not every prospect performs right away in the majors, and it’s not like the Mets are developing guys left and right on the big league club. (Still very bullish on their farm, though.)

BE: Odds that Kelenic ends up being the best player in this draft class ?
Keith Law: Nonzero. Maybe 10-15%? He’s pretty fucking good.

Larry: Nick Madrigal is slugging .325 thru 133 PA’s. Please talk me off the edge!
Keith Law: Did I answer this last week? I have nothing to tell you on this. I don’t think he’s going to have any power. He’s only slightly bigger than I am, and didn’t drive the ball much in college. He can really hit, and he’s a definite big leaguer, but there’s not going to be power there.

JR: I generally agree with you on most items (baseball and non-baseball). Therefore, when you tweet something I can usually predict what type of results you will get – mostly supportive with a decent mix of morons. However, I was blown away by all the negative replies you received from your tweet on minor leaguers deserving fair pay. Was extremely shocked at all the replies defending the current system.
Keith Law: The people who think minor leaguers are just “playing a game,” rather than working full-time hours for less than full-time pay, are totally out to lunch.

Kevin: Matt Manning is throwing the ball pretty well in Lakeland. Is he ready to start next season in AA?
Keith Law: Not really throwing that well. I believe he’ll start in AA and have trouble with both walks and homers.

Chuck: Any Tigers position player in the farm right now have a chance to be a legitimate star? Paredes? Meadows?
Keith Law: Probably not, but I could see 5-6 guys who look like potential 50s or 55s. Cameron is one. I really like Castro, whom they just got from Cleveland.

Jack: How big is the gap really between someone like Bo Bichette and someone like Gavin Lux?
Keith Law: Very big. And I like Lux.

Trevor: What’s the correct dose of colloidal silver to recover from CIA nanites? Asking for a friend.
Keith Law: Hang on, that was cutting edge last week, but medicine moves faster than that, my man.

Matt: What is wrong with Dylan Bundy?
Keith Law: He’s been overworked the last two years and it shows up in the results. His old fastball is gone, and he’s homer-prone as a result. I know O’s fans were mad I was pessimistic about him when he came back from elbow and shoulder surgeries, but we all had plenty of reason to doubt his durability. Had he been used more carefully, or switched to a relief role, maybe the situation would be different today.

Jackson: Would you rather have penne vodka or penne bologonese ?
Keith Law: Penne alla vodka.

John: I know you recently did a piece on Adam Haseley, but can you give me your biggest positive from watching him and your biggest negative?
Keith Law: I have no positive to report from that look. The negatives are in the piece.

Jerry: Historically, if the economy is strong, incumbents win. No matter how corrupt our leaders are, they don’t get voted out unless people feel it in their bank accounts.
Keith Law: Absolutely correct. But many people are feeling it in the wallet. The top end isn’t, but people at the lower end of the economy aren’t seeing wage gains to keep up with the cost of living, and some are losing their jobs as companies continue to automate or outsource.

Ben: Does Salt Lake City have a reputation as an extreme hitter’s park? I’ve always been curious. I know we’re not Denver high, but still well over 4000′.
Keith Law: Yes, it does.

Pops: Would Alex Verdugo help the struggling Dodgers offense?
Keith Law: He could. Not sure where he’d fit, but in the abstract I think his bat would help. Or he could pitch the 7th.

Pete: Rosario has been heating up lately. What do you think his line looks like next year, assuming you’re still buying on him
Keith Law: Sorry, if I didn’t answer that above, I’m still buying.

Chuck: What level does Mize start with next year? Does it make it to big club? Even worth it considering Tigers are a ways away still?
Keith Law: I would start him in AA. He’s going to obliterate A-ball hitters. Challenge him.

Chris: Kelenic and Woods-Richardson look solid in their first year. Very early but as a Mets fan I’m intrigued and happy with their recent drafts.
Keith Law: I’ve heard W-R is throwing harder and with a better CH than he had pre-draft. Very promising. Tramuta and company have done a very good job the last few years. (Full disclosure: I worked with Tramuta in Toronto for several years.)

CJ: How do you view Kapler’s rookie season as manager? The results are thus far exceeding expectations (recent skid notwithstanding), but there seem to be lots of questions about his approach.
Keith Law: What questions are there? I haven’t heard those or noticed any myself. I’ve only seen and heard good things.

Donald T: Keith Law…will you be my lawyer?
Keith Law: Yes, but could you please talk more directly into this pen?

Adam: I asked you a question on Twitter, and three days later there are still people in my mentions arguing about racism and anti-vaxxers. Send help.
Keith Law: That one anti-vaxxer dude seemed like the lunatic fringe ousted him for being “a bit much.”

Andy: Thoughts on Grant Lavigne? Tearing up the Pioneer League and showing plus plate discipline
Keith Law: Grand Junction is 4600 feet above sea level. Everyone seems to hit there. We’ll get more of a sense next year – even though Asheville is a good hitter’s park, the league as a whole is less hitter-friendly.

Harry: FWIW I thought the jab at Daniel Murphy the other day was a little outdated. He met with Billy Bean, and walked back his previous statements.
Keith Law: He didn’t walk them back, though. If he had, I wouldn’t have brought it up. He never retracted or corrected what he said. And his comments would make the clubhouse a hostile work environment for a gay player.

Chris: If anyone was ever doubting that big-college athletics isn’t about generating a lot of money and protecting sources of income at all costs, look no further than the charade that is THE Ohio State University suspension of Urban Meyer.
Keith Law: What a joke. I would love to see OSU students do something about this – stop going to games? – but it’s not going to matter as long as the TV checks roll in.

John: What is Vlad Jr’s recourse, or any other MiLB player who is kept in the minors an unfair amount of time?
Keith Law: A grievance. I do hope he files one.
Keith Law: We need a test case.

Luke: I’ve tried to rewrite this thee times so it doesn’t sound like I’m being a jerk, but I can’t make it work, so apologies if the tone sounds harsh, but are you able to turn off the scouting an analytical part of your mind and watch a game for fun or are you constantly picking up on mechanical flaws or the like when you watch a game?
Keith Law: It’s work. I can’t be at a game and not be working.

Dave: If you had to do it all over again, wouldn’t your analysis of Sale as a prospect be the exact same? If there are 100 prospects with his build and delivery, isn’t the odds that 90+ of them will flame out or never make it into a rotation?
Keith Law: Yes. Post-Sale prospects who’ve reminded me of him have all ended up in relief or gotten hurt. He’s the big exception – never really hurt till this year, and went from a 40 slider to arguably a 70 after signing.
Keith Law: Goldschmidt is a better example of a guy who changed how I think. One, I just try to see guys like him, rather than relying so much on others’ opinions, because he’s not someone who fares well on a traditional scouting report unless you goose the hit tool grade. Two, I’m looking for guys with that sort of swing and skill set now. That’s why I was more bullish on Rhys Hoskins as a prospect than I might have been given his age & pedigree.

Jackson: Ever tempted to place sports bets ?
Keith Law: No. I like my money.

Joe: Can you share your opinions on the new Insider/ESPN+ package and how/if it effects what you do?
Keith Law: I think it’s good news for me, and for readers. You get more stuff for the same price. I get more readers, but am still behind the subscriber wall, which has various benefits for me. It will not change the content I provide for you.

Chris: If you were the future Mets GM would you be tempted in the offseason to trade all of deGrom (3-4 top guys), Thor (2-3 top guys) and Wheeler (1-2 top guys) for the combined 8 or so top prospects and associated depth you should get back in total? Could yield a faster rebuild of say 1-2 years versus a full 3-4 year cycle teardown ala Astros, Reds, Tigers, etc.
Keith Law: Yep. Trade them all. Keep only the youngest guys – Conforto, Rosario, Smith, etc.

Pramit: I’ve seen that Baseball America and Jim Bowden ranked the Blue Jays system as top 3 systems in the league. Other than Vlad and Bo, are there any other impact prospects that are close? Alford has taken a step back, Reid-Foley could be a reliever and the jury is still out on Biggio. I wonder if Vlad being in the system is making the overall org appear deeper than it is.
Keith Law: I said in a recent chat that I do not find that ranking credible. I still don’t. It is not a top 3 system. BA is generally very good, and this is part of what they do; I just strongly disagree on what I would consider objective grounds. The other guy doesn’t cover prospects at all.

Melting Icebergs: Keith, there are an equal number of scientist that believe global warming is NOT man made and simply cyclical. Why are they wrong and the scientist you believe in right?
Keith Law: No there aren’t.

Scott B.: With 21 yr old Devers at 3rd, do the Sox eventually move Dalbec or Chablis to 1st?
Keith Law: Dalbec has made himself pretty good over there at third; I wouldn’t rush to move him yet. Chablis’ glove is pretty flinty.

Brandon Warne: Would you listen to a podcast that combines murder and comedy?
Keith Law: That depends on who’s getting murdered.

Evan: Alex Scherff is working his way back from an intercoastal injury. He looked pretty good before going on the DL. Does he stick as a starter and is he anything more than just a guy?
Keith Law: Starter. High risk with upside.

Jonathon: Thoughts on josh naylor
Keith Law: Can certainly hit and has big time power. Not sold on LF.

Rob: Hey Keith, I think I remember a while back you saying that you weren’t a fan of Deafheaven’s recent stuff. Did you give their newest a listen? Thanks.
Keith Law: One song. Started it a month ago and it’s still playing.

Tim: Remember when Gabe Kapler was about to be fired? Good times.
Keith Law: Yep. There are some Philly sports flacks who just blue themselves that first week.

Dan: Hi Keith, do you think the literature canon (Great Books) is still relative today, especially for younger readers? Shakespeare, Milton, dead white males…
Keith Law: I do, but I wouldn’t recommend any students read just those authors. That literature influenced writers for centuries after, and still influences writers today, so I think they remain essential. And prior to 1800 there ain’t much besides dead white males.

Andy: Any thoughts on speaking to your kids about the President. I hear so many parents say awful things about him in front of their kids. While likely deserved, I was raised to treat people with respect regardless and feel it’s a poor example to set.
Keith Law: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Kenny Kirkpatrick: Hudson Potts has had a monster year in High-A. He’s now in AA at age 19 and seems to get better each month. Is he the Padres 3rd baseman of the future?
Keith Law: I would say there’s a good chance of that, depending on his glove first and his OBP skills second. Still very young and improving quickly. Maybe 40% chance he’s the 3b of the future.

Newt: Does your abstention from red meat include bacon, glorious bacon?
Keith Law: I’m not abstaining from read meat – I just don’t eat beef any more, and haven’t eaten lamb in ages because I found I really didn’t like it.

Craig : Hey Keith , Thanks for the Chat . Do you think Vlad’s future is at 1B in regards to his body type , if so what grade defensively would you give him there
Keith Law: I think he’s a future DH. When I was on TSN1050 a week or so ago, I said he could be David Ortiz. I think any Blue Jays fan would take that.

Kenny Kirkpatrick: Andres Munoz is throwing triple digit heaters in AA at age 19. How good can he actually be?
Keith Law: Pure reliever but I’ve seen it and it’s very real. One-inning guy in any role. Different from Patino, who has a chance to start even though he’s not much bigger than Munoz.

Jason: Prominent BP scout clocked Andres Gimenez 3.8 to first yesterday? Have you heard about this big speed jump? What do you make of him in general?
Keith Law: Bad reading or jailbreak.

JD: Fleet’s Landing in Charleston was and is a treat.
Keith Law: Good to know.

Chris: Mickey Callaway has been bad. I thought his saving graces would be bullpen mgmt and talent development but his handling of both (forgetting to double-switch, batting BP pitchers, Dom Smith) have been outright awful.
Keith Law: Yeah, I haven’t been impressed in year one. Didn’t have managerial experience, right?

Danny: Any chance you heard what’s keeping Everson Peirera from playing in Pulaski?
Keith Law: I was told he’s hurt, but not with what. Seigler is also out due to a concussion.

Kenny Kirkpatrick: What do you think of Buddy Reed? He had a big year in High-A after making some adjustments to his swing this past offseason. He’s struggled so far in his limited playing time in AA.
Keith Law: Swing has improved a little, mostly in terms of using his lower half. Still not buying the bat completely, but with his range in CF he doesn’t have to hit a ton to have some value.

Dr. Bob: RE: Bader. That’s why we come to you. Makes sense. He’s started against 70 RH starters but 34 LH starters. Since I don’t think LH starters make up a third of the league, that is a quasi-platoon.
Keith Law: Last I looked he had a disproportionate % of his PA against lefties, and was killing them (as he should). But while sitting him vs tough RHB may be a good developmental move (or not … I’m saying hypothetically), it shouldn’t count to his credit in awards voting.

Terry (Wash, DC): Are you still a MoviePass subscriber? You haven’t posted many movie reviews lately, and I wondered what you’ve been watching.
Keith Law: I cancelled my subscription when they changed the rules. But there’s also just one movie out I really want to see, Black Klansman. The others are things I could see but could easily wait to stream.

Pat: Another arm injury for Hunter Harvey. Is he just a cross off at this point?
Keith Law: Yeah, just check back in when he’s healthy for a stretch. It sucks.

Evan: Just curious what bag you use to carry all your scouting stuff? It would be neat to see a “whats in Keith’s bag” sorta post.
Keith Law: It’s a camera bag from CaseLogic. Radar gun fits well in it, and I have room for other stuff I might need at a game or on the plane.

APK: Justin Dunn and Franklyn Kilome’s numbers have been really promising at Binghamton so far. Do you see either of them turning into above average major Leaguers?
Keith Law: Dunn yes. Kilome less so.

David: As a fan, would you be more excited to see an 11-10 game or a 1-0 pitchers dual?
Keith Law: The pitcher’s duel. Not even close.

SC: Have to disagree about trading all of the Mets starters. How do you trade deGrom when he’s having an unreal season? Figure he’s at peak value? I’d keep him and Wheeler and entertain offers for Thor. Have to set some sort of middle ground. Also have to see what you’ve got in the system and who can fill needs from other teams
Keith Law: He is at peak value. And his value declines as he approaches free agency.

Steve: Better Naylor long term, Josh or Bo?
Keith Law: I’m all in on Bo. Loved him in the draft, thought he was a top 15 talent, and if he can’t catch – he’s catching now in the AZL, where he’s raking – he’ll be good at third base.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thanks so much for reading and for all of your questions. I’ll be back next week for another round. Enjoy your weekends!

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With:
→ August 23, 2018
→ By

The Ninth Hour.

Alice McDermott’s The Ninth Hour earned her a spot on the shortlist for the National Book Critics Circle award last year, which went to Joan Silber’s Improvement, and as far as I can remember that’s the only reason I put in a hold request for it at my library – that and the fact that it was barely over 200 pages, meaning I could knock it out in a few days. It was certainly fast, taking me less than 48 hours to finish, but it’s a literary anachronism, a facsimile of the types of novels that used to win these awards 50 years ago – perhaps the type of book people think they’re supposed to like rather than one that they should.

The Ninth Hour begins with a suicide, significant in a book drenched with Catholic dogma and practices, as Jim decides to exercise some agency in his own life by ending it, leaving behind his pregnant wife, Anne, who in turn is taken in by a local cloister of charity-minded nuns. Anne gives birth to Sally, who spends her formative years with her mother as the latter works in the laundry of the convent, soaking up the secular aspects of the nuns’ faith and eventually toying with the idea of entering a convent herself. Anne, meanwhile, is left a young widow when barely out of her girlhood, and is, unsurprisingly, neither satisfied with her lot in life nor willing to sit back and accept it, eventually taking up with a man who is married to an invalid who is in turn tended by the nuns on their daily rounds.

McDermott’s one trick in this novel is setting up the eventual intersection of these different threads in sufficiently organic fashion to make it credible, at least up until what I’ll call Sally’s last decision, the one truly inexplicable detail (and one I feel like I’ve seen in other works as well). The affair between Anne and her paramour feels natural, as does Sally’s attraction to the vocation of the women who have all helped to raise and educate her. The discovery of the affair itself is faintly comic but, again, entirely fits within the structures of these characters’ lives, and if anything McDermott undersells any scandalous aspects to it, perhaps because her order of nuns is, on the whole, far more progressive than the Catholic Church was at any point in the 20th century.

Those nuns, however, are almost ciphers on the page; McDermott’s attempts to give them distinct characters fall flat, as their defining attributes are neither significant nor strong enough to sear their identities on the reader. By the end of the book, I sort of knew the differences between Sister Jeanne and Sister Lucy, but not enough to keep any of the sisters in my memory once I’d hit the final page. Anne is the most interesting and well-rounded character while she’s at the novel’s center, but once Sally grows up and decides she’s interested in becoming a nun, she takes over as the protagonist, and she’s quite a bit less interesting than her mother is. The longest chapter, describing Sally’s train ride from New York to Chicago to join a convent there on a trial basis, would have worked very well as a standalone short story, where Sally is the observer and pivot point but her personality, which appears just in flashes, is secondary to the cast of eccentrics around her, notably the crass woman who sits next to her (and has a vocabulary inapposite to the time period). It even ends on the right note for the conclusion of a short story about a woman on her first journey out of her birth city, considering embarking on a new and permanent direction in her life. It’s too bad the rest of the novel couldn’t live up to that chapter; so little happens and the characters are so bland that many of the chapters in The Ninth Hour are just plain boring.

I’ve read all five of those NBCC fiction finalists, and this was clearly at the bottom. I would have given the prize to Exit West rather than Improvement, with The Ministry Of Utmost Happiness third and Sing, Unburied, Sing (which won the National Book Award) fourth. The Ninth Hour is the only one of the five I’d say is below the recommendation threshold, however; it’s such an inconsequential story that illuminates nothing about us, its characters, our society, or even questions about faith, the meaning of life, or dealing with death. I’m not sure what the critics in the NBCC saw in the book to give it a nod over the vastly superior Lincoln in the Bardo for the shortlist.

Next up: Kory Stamper’s Word By Word: The Secret Life of Dictionaries.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: ,
→ August 22, 2018
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Rebel Talent.

I heard Harvard Business School Professor Francesca Gino on a recent episode of the Hidden Brain podcast, discussing her new book Rebel Talent: Why It Pays to Break the Rules at Work and in Life and her thesis that ‘rebels’ are more successful innovators in the workplace and that bending or breaking some societal mores can lead to greater happiness as well as productivity. That concept is certainly an appealing one – who doesn’t like the idea of pushing boundaries and then proving to the world that you were right to do so? – and in cases where Gino can back up her insights with data, rather than merely with anecdotes, it’s compelling. The book varies too much between those two poles, however, with so much of it supported by individual observations, that I wasn’t entirely convinced that her hypothesis was as generalizable as she wants it to be.

Much of Rebel Talent is built around Gino’s profile of and visits with Italian celebrity chef Massimo Bottura, whose restaurant, Osteria Francescana, has received three Michelin Stars and appears regularly on lists of the best restaurants in the world. (It also shows up in one episode of season two of Master of None.) Bottura is the exemplar of the rebel in Gino’s definition; working within the tradition-bound world of Italian cuisine, Bottura has introduced the sort of deconstructive, modern approach to cooking popularized by el bulli (where he worked for a summer) and Noma, turning classical Italian preparations inside out, often with a gently mocking tone to the new versions. Gino cooked in Bottura’s kitchen for a night and devotes a fair amount of time to describing a few dishes, such as one called “the crunchy part of the lasagna,” a specific dish that gives the diner the almost-burned, crispy edges that form around the top edges of that baked pasta dish, which many people (myself included) will tell you it’s the best part. As someone who’s generally interested in food and cooking, I enjoyed these passages on their own merits, although the narrative would drag when Gino would shift from talking about Bottura’s approaches to food to his approaches to managing his staff (still relevant to her premise, but come on, I’m here for the cooking ideas).

There are long parts of Rebel Talent where Gino deftly defends her arguments with a blend of such anecdotes and with real data. The chapter “Uncomfortable Truths” looks at the value of diversity in the workplace and in life, that there is hard evidence that diverse teams are more productive and more creative, while people are often happier living or working in diverse environments. (Diversity in these instances refers to demographic diversity, rather than diversity of educational or employment backgrounds.) A team of all white men will tend to be less productive or creative than a comparable team with even one person who is nonwhite or non-male. Such additions can also help to reduce discriminatory attitudes on the parts of the dominant subgroup in the environment. It’s the most compelling individual argument anywhere in the book – if you want teams that innovate, and even go beyond the norms of your workplace, then mix it up by hiring a diverse employee base and putting people together in heterogenous teams.

However, too much of the book leans very heavily on a handful of individual examples, and it was hard for me to accept the generalization of those specific cases to the workplace or society as a whole. Gino does a masterful job of retelling the heroic efforts of Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger, who was the pilot of US Airways flight 1549 when birds disabled both of the plane’s engines, forcing an emergency landing that Sully decided in a matter of seconds he had to make on the Hudson River. Did he make this decision because he was, in Gino’s terms, a ‘rebel?’ I think it’s just as easy to argue that he made this decision based on years of experience, a calm demeanor in the face of unimaginable pressure, and the preparations afforded to him by his training and the in-flight checklist that, at least, he and his co-pilot could begin to use before time ran short and Captain Sullenberger had to made an immediate decision to land in the water rather than trying to get to a runway in New Jersey. There’s a similarly stirring anecdote Gino uses multiple times about then Portland Trailblazers coach Mo Cheeks coming to the aid of a young girl who panicked while singing the national anthem before a playoff game and forgot the words. Cheeks realized she was in trouble, walked over to her, said “it’s all right,” and started singing with her so she could pick back up where she’d trailed off, with the entire arena joining in. It’s a beautiful and emotional story, but was Cheeks a rebel, or just a dad and a good human being, helping a child who needed someone?

Rebel Talent is a bit of a swerve from the books in the business genre I usually read, which tend to be more data-driven and grounded in disciplines like cognitive psychology; it’s written for the mass audience, clearly, and thus lighter in prose and tone. It gave me plenty of food for thought, pun intended, and is an encouragement to be bolder and more innovative in any of my various endeavors. I’m just not sure Gino sufficiently supported her broader points, beyond these one-off individuals who rebelled and succeeded (where many others have likely failed) to justify her bigger claims about the value of rebels at work and in life.

Next up: Kory Stamper’s Word by Word: The Secret Life of Dictionaries.

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→ August 20, 2018
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Pachinko.

Min Jin Lee’s second novel, Pachinko, earned broad acclaim last year, including a spot on the shortlist for the National Book Award (which it lost to Jesmyn Ward’s Sing, Unburied, Sing) and on the New York Times‘ list of the ten best books of last year, all of which brought it to my attention in the spring when I was looking at potential winners of the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction, which went to the markedly inferior Less. Lee’s novel manages to combine a totally unfamiliar aspect of world history and culture – the outsider status of Koreans living in Japan during and after the latter’s colonization of the Korean peninsula – with the familiar epic structure of classic novels of the British tradition. If Dickens or Eliot had written a novel about Koreans living as part of the underclass in Japan, it would probably look a lot like Pachinko.

Pachinko is a type of arcade game very popular in Japan, similar to pinball, and often used for gambling. Pachinko parlors are mostly owned by Koreans, and it was one of the few industries open to ethnic Koreans in Japan in the wake of colonization, which Lee uses as the backdrop for her novel. The book covers four generations of a Korean family from their beginnings in Busan, a city at the southern tip of the peninsula, through their settlement in Yokohama, Japan, and multiple tragedies borne largely of the disadvantages and obstacles they face as permanent outsiders in their adopted homeland.

The novel moves quickly to get us to Sunja, a teenaged Korean daughter of a widowed innkeeper, when she becomes pregnant by a Korean man, Honsu, who lives in Japan and only later reveals that he has a wife and children in Osaka whom he won’t leave or divorce. Sunja marries a Korean Presbyterian missionary, who moves her to Japan, where the family faces ongoing discrimination that moves from the overt to the subtle over the course of the novel’s fifty-odd years, where even educational achievement isn’t enough to push her descendants past the invisible barriers of anti-Korean prejudice in Japanese society. The source of Hansu’s wealth and power isn’t revealed until later in the book, but even his influence can’t break down all of these walls, and the pachinko industry becomes the source of refuge and only path to wealth or success for several members of the family. Through the narrative, Lee works in the mistreatment of Koreans prior to and during World War II, including political prisoners and forced laborers as well as off-screen references to “comfort women,” before the tone shifts to one of superficial acceptance and tacit discrimination in the wake of the war.

The overarching theme of Pachinko is one of displacement, as some of the core characters still yearn to return to Korea, thinking of it as home, while others want to think of Japan as home – especially Sunja’s younger son and grandson, both born in the archipelago – but aren’t fully accepted by Japanese society. Koreans in the novel form a cultural enclave, surrounded by Japanese people and their economic and social hierarchies, unable to fully assimilate even if they learn the language fluently and attend Japanese schools. Any upward mobility is stunted by formal and informal obstacles, like a plant trying to grow into ground that is too hard for its roots to penetrate. This leads to a sense of anomie in some characters, like Sunja’s younger son Mozasu, who ends up in the pachinko business primarily because it’s that or jail, while others, like her son with Hansu, Noa, can never reconcile their two identities and come to awful ends.

Although female agency is another theme that looms large throughout the novel, Noa seems to best encapsulate Lee’s points about identity and isolation. He’s an ethnic Korean, but grows up believing his adoptive father, the Presbyterian missionary, is his biological father, and finds out far later that his real father is the businessman of dubious methods, Hansu, destroying any sense of self he’d built up through his own hard work in school and in jobs where he’s underpaid because he’s Korean. Lee writes more from the perspectives of the women in the novel, mostly Sunja, but Noa’s story after the revelation about his parentage could have used even more elucidation, as he disappears from the novel for many years of book time, leaving me with questions about the continued effects of his mixed-up identity.

I ended up getting Pachinko as a digital loan from my library after putting in a hold back in February, and when the book showed up, I was in the middle of something else, and had just eight days to finish it before the loan expired, which would be aggressive for a book of over 450 pages … but it reads so quickly that I finished it in four days. Lee’s prose absolutely flies, even with plenty of descriptive, scene-setting language, and the book is largely driven by dialogue, so the pace rarely slows. I have other, minor quibbles, such as wishing for more depth on certain characters, but Pachinko is so ambitious and exposes a world that was totally opaque or outright unknown to me beforehand that it seems petty to dwell on them. I would still rank it below Lincoln in the Bardo among 2017 novels, but it was more than worthy of any of the annual fiction awards for which it was considered.

Next up: Another 2017 novel, Alice McDermott’s The Ninth Hour.

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