Exit West.

Mohsin Hamid first gained global notice for his 2007 novel The Reluctant Fundamentalist, which became a best-seller, was shortlisted for the Booker Prize, and won numerous smaller awards for the Pakistani author. His 2017 novel Exit West has been nearly as acclaimed, making the shortlists for the Booker Prize and the National Book Critics Circle’s Fiction award, and even earning a nod from Barack Obama as one of the best books he read in 2017. Working with just a hint of magical realism, Hamid gives us a clear-eyed look at the refugee crisis from the perspective of a young couple, Saeed and Nadia, who fall in love in their unnamed, war-torn country (resembling Afghanistan), and manage to escape through a portal, only to find themselves transient through various stops where refugees are less than welcome.

The only gimmick Hamid employs in the book is the doors, these magic portals that appear and allow people to slip through them and emerge somewhere completely different in the world, at least until authorities find the door and attempt to block it. This allows Hamid to focus on the problems refugees face of resistance from native populations, of the obstacles they face toward assimilation, and of the strain the displacement puts on relationships, while skipping the just as real problems of getting out of the original country and, perhaps, dying en route to somewhere else. The horrors of migrants packed on to tiny, un-seaworthy vessels, or crammed in the back of overheated trucks, are legitimate, but including that part of the refugee experience might overwhelm the parts of the story Hamid wants to tell – the way wars or famines create populations of homeless refugees searching for little more than a safe place to live and work, much as they may have had before the crisis hit.

Nadia and Saeed live ordinary lives in what appears to be a moderate or even progressive Muslim country, with Nadia living alone as a liberated woman who has cut off her conservative family. The two fall in love just as the country begins its collapse, with fundamentalist rebels encroaching on their city and eventually taking it over and enforcing Taleban-like rules on the populace. (Hamid never names the country, the religion, or any of the forces, but the details he does provide sound an awful lot like Afghanistan under the rule of the Taleban, while the movements of the refugees after they exit through the first door resemble the flight of Syrians during their civil war.) After several small incidents drive Nadia from her apartment into Saeed’s home with his father – Saeed’s mother is killed by a stray bullet in the street – they hear of a door that will allow them to escape to somewhere else, beginning a journey that will take them through several doors, to Greece, to England, and eventually the United States, an odyssey that changes them both as individuals and alters the nature of their relationship, permanently, by the time they find a permanent home in California.

Although the primary hook in Exit West is the magic of the doors, which boil down the leave/stay decision to one of money and family, the strongest element of Hamid’s narrative is the tapestry of mundane details of the itinerants’ lives once the social contract of their home city begins to dissolve. There’s a run on a local bank, and in the throngs of people crushing to get to their money, men grope women in the crowd, including Nadia, knowing well that there will be no repercussions, an early sign that without that social contract people will behave like animals. Refugees grasp at what might, to us, seem trivial details that reinforce their humanity – a warm meal, an actual shower, possession of items we take for granted.

At each destination, Hamid presents a different vision of the refugee crisis, none more potent than his version of London, where a military attempt to remove migrant squatters fails, and a new partnership between the natives and the refugees emerges, not merely a détente but an attempt to create a better life for everyone. These are interspersed with brief scenes of other people who pass through doors in search of safety, freedom, or merely something different, presenting the doors as metaphor rather than merely as a plot device to skip over the brutal conditions of migration.

The displacement takes a toll on Nadia and Saeed as well; neither character is the same by the time their journey ends, at least for now, in California. Nadia is also the more interesting and well-developed of the two characters, both at the start of the novel and by the time the two have evolved over the course of the book. The power of Exit West, however, is that the theme applies to any characters forced by circumstance to leave everything behind and step through the first door that appears – without any idea where they’ll end up.

Next up: I just started N.K. Jemisin’s The Stone Sky, the final book in her Broken Earth trilogy that began with The Fifth Season.

Stick to baseball, 7/7/18.

I had two new posts for Insiders this week, one on the Futures Game rosters, which were announced on Friday; and a post of scouting notes on Orioles, Phillies, Rangers, White Sox, and Royals prospects I’ve seen in the last few weeks. That Futures Game column included Houston’s Forrest Whitley, but he was removed from his last start with “left oblique discomfort,” so I’m expecting him to be replaced on the roster before game day.

I have two book signings for Smart Baseball coming up this month. Next Saturday, July 14th, I’ll be at Politics & Prose in Washington, DC, signing books and talking baseball with Jay Jaffe; and I’ll be at the Silver Unicorn Bookstore in Acton, Massachusetts, on July 28th, hosted by store owner and former Fangraphs/Hardball Times writer Paul Swydan.

And now, the links…

Wise Blood.

Flannery O’Connor is a fascinating figure in American literature – a staunch Catholic who wrote macabre, misanthropic, even violent stories seem to stem from a mind like Cormac McCarthy’s, becoming a leader of the new Southern Gothic style before her death at 39 of complications from lupus. Her short story collection A Good Man is Hard to Find includes the title story, one of the creepiest I’ve ever read, a story that seems completely without hope and presents as dark a view as possible of humanity.

O’Connor wrote two novels, including Wise Blood, about a young man named Hazel Motes who decides he’s going to start a Church Without Christ, a sort of anti-church, not a church of atheism specifically but a church opposed to churches. If it sounds like a less than coherent philosophy, then you’ve got the idea, as Hazel is very mad and not very smart. He’s befriended by the teenaged zoo employee Enoch, an eager and socially inept youth who is looking for anyone to whom he can attach himself. Hazel’s half-hearted attempts to preach his anti-gospel are quickly subsumed by a local con man, who names his church the Holy Church of Christ Without Christ and starts collecting donations while steering attention away from Hazel. Hazel’s rage gets the best of him as he sees someone else profiting from his ideas, leading to violence and then a period of remorse marked by self-mutilation and asceticism.

Wise Blood is disjointed, and side characters and themes come and go without much bother, so it wasn’t surprising to see (after I read it) that O’Connor cobbled it together from previously written short stories and her master’s thesis (the first chapter). The one unifying element is Hazel himself, a damaged World War II veteran whose family has disappeared while he was away, and who returns believing in nothing at all – a pure nihilist, angry at the world and at the God in which he claims to disbelieve. He’s a comic antihero, in part because he’s a bit of a moron, and in part because so much of what he does goes awry. So while the novel does have a climax and long resolution, it’s more a connected set of stories around Hazel’s return from war and anti-religious fervor, culminating in his attempt to find redemption via masochistic means after committing a horrible crime.

O’Connor makes heavy use of symbolism in her works, none more here than the repeated references to characters’ eyes. We get the crooked preacher who pretended to blind himself with quicklime but is the first one to see through Hazel for what he is. Hazel is stopped by a police officer at one point whose eyes are ‘diamond blue.’ The crooked preacher’s daughter, named Sabbath Lily, decides she loves (or just wants) Hazel because of what she sees in his eyes – that he’s not just looking at you, but through you into the future. And the name Hazel Motes includes two allusions to eyes or sight, hazel as a distinctive eye color, and mote as a reference to Matthew 7:3-5 (“And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother’s eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye?”), which decries those who see flaws in others but are blind to faults in themselves.

But despite comic elements and text rich with metaphor and allusion, Wise Blood feels inconsequential; I read it, but never felt absorbed at all in the story, and found the redemption arc too inverted to connect with it. The side characters are all too one-dimensional and serve as props for Hazel’s actions, not as fully-realized individuals themselves. And the ending moves more into speculative fiction territory, losing any threads of realism we’d had earlier in the book. The Guardian named this one of the 100 best novels ever back in 2003, but I’ve read a few hundred novels better on both a literal and a symbolic level.

Klawchat 7/5/18.

Keith Law: Monuments put from pen to paper turns me into a gutless wonder. Klawchat.

Mitchell: Pre-season you raved about Paddack and said he has mid-rotation upside. Has what he’s done so far increased his upside in your mind?
Keith Law: No, nor should it, really. He’s been great, but that’s what a mid-rotation prospect with a plus-plus changeup should be doing at that level. There really aren’t that many guys with more upside than “mid-rotation” in the minors.

silvpak: yusniel diaz has continued his progression this year, putting up dramatically improved strike zone recognition (35 walks and Ks in 189 abs vs. 45/102 last year in 439), with upticks in slugging as well (albeit in tulsa). any changes in his long term outlook?
Keith Law: He’s healthy now, which makes a big difference. I don’t think there’s plus power in there but I do think he can hit for average with a high OBP, more in line with the player the Dodgers thought they were signing than what they’ve seen in the last two years.

Chris: As a Mets fan, Im in favor of trading deGrom and Thor. The team does not have enough talent to be a true WS contender even with those guys and should use the few valuable assets they have to build up the the org for years to come. I find the argument to keeping those guys fundamentally flawed bc I don’t see the Mets as more than a WC team even when firing on all cylinders.
Keith Law: Especially deGrom, whose value is probably at its peak, who has already blown out once, and who is a free agent a year sooner than Thor is.

Chris: Any thoughts on the Mets player development issues? Sporadic playing time for Amed Rosario and Dom Smith is so puzzling to me.
Keith Law: Same. Their handling of both kids has been weird, possibly deleterious, since they were recalled.

Dave: Klaw: Hope you and your family had a great Fourth. My question is about bunting against the shift. I don’t understand why lefties won’t at least attempt to drag one down the third base line. Is there some unwritten rule against this? I know it’s hard to bunt, but the occasional try might make teams think twice about playing their third baseman just left of second.
Keith Law: I assume you mean to try to push one down the 3b line, and I agree that yes it’s hard and yes it’s still worth trying. The short-term payoff is a free base. The long-term payoff is less of a shift. It’s worth having such hitters practice push bunts to see who can pull it off.

bernie: Do the Brewers have the logical pieces to go after a deGrom, or another type of arm who could be a Game 1 playoff starter? Do you see a great team in the NL? Who would you favor for the NL pennant right now?
Keith Law: Dodgers and Dbacks look like the best teams, Cubs not far behind, Brewers behind them. However, adding a #1 starter would certainly improve the Brewers’ odds of winning the Central which would in turn improve their odds of advancing (vs winning the wild card, even to host, and then playing a coin flip game). I think they have the pieces to get a deGrom but might be reluctant to deal that much talent from their system, given their payroll constraints.

Chris: Hi Keith, Mitchell White’s stat line has been pretty bad at AA, is there something physically wrong with him at this point?
Keith Law: He hasn’t really been healthy since spring of 2017.

Matt: If you’re the Nats do you start to Sell and retool for next year? What are the moves?
Keith Law: No.

Andres (Atlanta): Always a fan of your musical taste. Since it’s now July, what are your top 3 albums of the year so far?
Keith Law: I tend to think in terms of singles rather than albums. If you look at my playlists, you’ll see certain artists pop up again and again – Courtney Barnett, Wooden Shjips, Django Django, Snail Mail have all appeared a few times with songs from their latest albums.

Matt: Have a question on your view of Democratic Socialism. Is this a viable economic path or something where elements of it hold merit and value but the overarching principle flies too much in the face of free market? I just wonder how legitimatelt socialist democratic socialism is.
Keith Law: If you saw the Hannity graphic outlining the ‘horrors’ of Ocasio-Cortez’s platform, it bore little resemblance to actual socialism. Neither she nor any DSA candidates I know of are proposing nationalizing industries, for example. They are proposing an expansion of the social safety net, which is a progressive/liberal policy, one that socialists would embrace but not something that is inherently socialist. It’s also a policy shift worth discussing, since there’s evidence that, say, a healthier workforce is a more productive one and thus leads to more economic growth, but I don’t see the right having this discussion at all.

BE: The beat writers wrote about the Tigers shifting their approach to more athletic high upside guys in this years draft. Was that your take?
Keith Law: That’s not accurate, at least not based on who they took. Meadows is the one possible exception, a good athlete but not a huge upside guy, and he has a hitch in his swing he’s going to have to try to smooth out.

smell the glove: How reliable are defensive metrics? Which ones, if any, do you consider useful? I’ve seen smart people I respect all over the map with their opinions on this topic.
Keith Law: I discussed this in my book. I look at UZR and dRS and think they are directionally correct if the samples are large enough, certainly accurate at saying what happened but lacking the predictive precision we desire from other statistics.

Mike: Any idea what’s happened to Jose Albertos this year?
Keith Law: Looks like the yips to me.

JR: When you were in Europe, how tempted were you to just not come back given the buffoon we have for a President? Kidding aside, how were you treated when people found out you were American? With sympathy? bewilderment? anger? Just curious what more civilized countries think of us these days.
Keith Law: A lot of dismay, certainly. I apologized a lot for our policies and how we’ve treated other countries/leaders.

Greg: Hearing anything about Carter Stewart signing or not?
Keith Law: They all sign unless they fail a physical.

jake: what’s changed this year about justin dunn
Keith Law: A year older, holding his mechanics together a little better

Brett: Zac Lowther have any type of ceiling in the Bigs, or is this just him being too old for his level?
Keith Law: Low ceiling guy but may end up a good back-end starter. Huge extension in his delivery, high spin fastball, so hitters don’t see it even at 88-89.

Kyle: When is your midseason prospect list coming?
Keith Law: After the All-Star Break. Same time every year.

HankQQ: Any thoughts on the unsigned 1st rounders?
Keith Law: No. They all sign unless they fail a physical.

Jake: What are your thoughts of the Royals farm system after the draft/international signing period. Still bottom of the barrel?
Keith Law: Yes, still poor.

Tom: If the Braves were to trade Pache, what do you think the return would have to be right now
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re trading him.

Donald: Nick Madrigal is starting off at Winston-Salem. Do you agree with the aggressive placement?
Keith Law: I do.

Mike: Would you classify this year as a success or failure for Christian Pache so far?
Keith Law: Do I have to?

Jake: Where would you rate Singer, Kowar in terms of the Royals best prospects?
Keith Law: Lee is clearly #1 in that system. Kowar, Lynch, Singer, probably in that order, are behind him now.

Mike: So … Max Muncy! Thoughts?
Keith Law: Not really. We get these one-year flukes a lot.

Rob P: Is Javier Baez the most exciting player in MLB right now? Whether it’s his ridiculous swings, him stealing home or making an amazing defensive play he always seems to have a daily highlight reel.
Keith Law: Extremely fun to watch. Flawed, obviously. But for sheer pleasure of watching, I’m not sure I can name anyone better.

Chet: I would assume that Shane Bieber is here to stay for the Indians, but is he the front runner for AL ROY now?
Keith Law: Gleyber is out for ten days. He’s not dead.

Will: Thoughts on Mozeliak’s comments on Dexter Fowler?
Keith Law: To borrow a line from Pam, inappropes.

Mike: Is Johan Camargo the real deal?
Keith Law: No. Been pitched around a lot, inflating his BB and OBP.

Zach: Has the uptick in numbers from Hunter Greene been accompanied by an uptick in stuff? Think the Reds should/will move him to AA before the end of the year?
Keith Law: No, he was always throwing hard – he was 97-101 when he struggled, and there isn’t really an uptick from there. I see zero reason for them to jump him to AA from low-A – that would be totally irresponsible. He should go to high-A first.

Dave: Has Kebryan Hayes increased his stock this year? Looks like a legit starting 3B in majors. If develops more power, look out
Keith Law: This is the player I think most people, myself included, thought he’d become when he got out of the Florida State League (which seemed to really kill any power at all). I don’t think he’s a 20 HR guy but I think he’ll hit, get on base, have enough doubles power, and play grade 70 defense.

Brian: What is your best guess as to why the Cardinals – by all accounts a progressive, resourceful organization – chose not only to hire Mike Matheny, but retain him for years? I know superficially (very superficially) he’s gotten good results, but what do you think is even the non-persuasive rationale for what the Cards’ FO sees in him?
Keith Law: I have no idea. His flaws are very evident on the surface, and become more so whenever he tries to explain his bad decisions. There are so many better options out there.

Trevor: What kind of prospect would you expect back for Brad Hand? Kyle Tucker? Mejia? Groome?
Keith Law: You’re not getting Tucker or Mejia. Groome is out with TJ well into next year, so I imagine he’s available.

Ryan: Hey Keith, Pavin Smith is having a disappointing yet interesting year. Great BB and K rates, more power than last season, unimpressive batting average. What are you hearing about his season so far? Thank you!
Keith Law: talked to a few scouts who saw him and asked me why he was a first rounder. They may be overreacting to the poor performance, but it’s not a great sign.

Mike: If you were Alex Anthopoulos, how would you handle this deadline?
Keith Law: If you can improve the team by trading guys on the margins who aren’t part of the future – the Lucas Sims types – then do it. Trading significant prospects for short-term help would be really stupid, though. I’m shocked whenever Atlanta fans suggest it. You really want to trade a potential stud like Pache for a two-month rental?

Ivy: Do you believe in the whole “manager has lost the clubhouse” thing? If so, has Buck lost the O’s, or do you think they’re finally playing down to their talent level?
Keith Law: I believe a manager can lose the clubhouse; I don’t think it can ever be the primary explanation for a team underperforming. The roster just wasn’t very good coming into the year, and the years of overperforming, which involved a lot of good fortune, are probably over.

Matt: When assigning a grade to a prospects speed, is it as simple as just timing home to 1st/2nd sorting that way, or are there other considerations that go into that grading?
Keith Law: You still want to see if the player is faster underway. Some players are slow out of the box and faster going first to third. Jacoby Ellsbury always gave me bad times home to first even when he was a visible 7 runner.

Matt: Is Manny Machado really this bad at shortstop? His defensive metrics are horrible.
Keith Law: 740 innings is a very small sample for defensive metrics.

Thomas: In what order would you rank the Tigers’ top arms in their system? (Mize, Manning, Faedo, Burrows, and Perez). I assume Mize is 1.
Keith Law: Mize, Perez (if healthy), Burrows, Faedo.

Patrick: in your professional opinion, at what age is recommended for young pitchers to begin throwing breaking balls (curve, slider, etc)? I’ve heard too early can have a huge impact on elbow issues as they grow.
Keith Law: That’s a hypothesis that I don’t think is proven either way, but I do favor the advice of just having kids throw fastballs and some simple changeup so they learn a consistent throwing motion and can work more on locating. A 13-year-old who can spin the ball will end up using it all the time because hitters can’t hit it, and then he’s not learning anything either.

Dodgers top outfield prospect : What’s the difference between Alex verdugo and yusial Diaz ?
Keith Law: Very different profiles. Verdugo has more power and speed. Diaz looks like a more steady avg/obp type.

God: Tim Tebow, All-Star. I win, KLaw loses. Carry on.
Keith Law: A bunch of Tebags tweeted me about this, as if putting the washed-up QB was anything other than a publicity stunt to try to get more fans to go to the game. It’s sad that a minor league All-Star game isn’t reason enough for fans to show up (and it’s in Trenton, where I go all the time, a great park that’s super easy to get to).

tallmrj: What are your thoughts on some of the O’s class A pitching prospects like Hall, Lowther, Bauman, Hanifee, etc…? They have had a good first half.
Keith Law: Saw Hanifee on Tuesday and will write that up after I get my Futures Game preview post done. Lowther I mentioned above. Baumann is a power arm but probable reliever. Hall is the one I keep trying to see, but for whatever reason that team isn’t great about putting scheduled starters out there.

Jeries: Does Nick Madrigal have any chance at developing power like other short guys (Gennett, Albies, etc)?
Keith Law: Very little chance.

Carl: Are you encouraged at all by Matt Manning’s pitching as of late? Strikeouts keeps racking up and the walks have been held in check.
Keith Law: He walked 5 just a couple of starts ago, so, no.

wide awake in america: Since you’re a smart guy who’s figured out a lot, maybe you can help – have you figured out sleep? Do you have trouble sleeping on the road? Do you have trouble turning your mind off? I’m failing in this, and I hate to resort to medications for sleep (though I sometimes do). (If you need a baseball hook, pretend I asked about Mike Napoli. And this is a sincere question, you’re wise on many subjects.)
Keith Law: Read Matt Walker’s Why We Sleep. And don’t use those medications. They don’t work.

J: With the standard small sample size issues aside, can Tigers fans be excited about the improvement from Daz Cameron, Issac Paredes, and Matt Manning?
Keith Law: I’m a big Cameron fan. He’s not his dad, but I think we can all accept that and move on to appreciate what Daz is – at least a solid regular, maybe more, even if he’s never a superstar. I think the Tigers would be thrilled if Daz became a solid regular for six years.

EG: Any thoughts on Bryce Harper’s mediocre (by his standards) season? Batting average way down
Keith Law: Quality of his at bats seems to have declined the last month or so. (Bear in mind I was on vacation too, and missed about eight nights of games. I’m not sorry.) I don’t know specifically what’s eating him, but I wonder if the team faring poorly has him pressing to try to do too much.

Jake: What sort of return do you think the Royals could get for Whit Merrifield right now? Org depth? 4.5 yrs of control.
Keith Law: Org depth, maybe one mid-tier prospect. He’s 29 and the power surge from last year looks like a fluke now.

Dave: Did you envision Nola would become this good?
Keith Law: No, he’s really improved his secondary stuff since he signed. CB and CH both substantially better. Love watching him … I haven’t been to many games at CBP this year but if he’s pitching I’m more interested in going.

Logan: What’s your opinion of O’Neil Cruz?
Keith Law: He’s very tall.

Jeries: Who did you like better out of HS, Greinke or Carter Stewart?
Keith Law: I never saw Greinke out of HS – that’s before my time.

Marissa: Hi Keith. I am wondering your thoughts on David Peterson. I see that he’s not in the top 100 prospect lists and wondering if you agree with that or not.
Keith Law: He was on mine in January.

Old Tom Morris: I see you mention the yips often, and it’s such a good way to describe what you’re describing. It makes me wonder, do you play golf? Like golf? Watch golf? Or is TV golf a good nap, spoiled?
Keith Law: What is golf?

Jason: Re traveling in Europe, I know you were in Italy. Needless to say they have their own issues and really aren’t ones to talk.
Keith Law: Aside from the tu quoque fallacy you invoked, Italy’s social and environmental policies are way ahead of ours.

Rick Hahn: How impressive has Luis Gonzalez been? What’s his ceiling?
Keith Law: Everyday player. Not impressive when a college player tears up low-A, though.

Greg: Well aware of how it works with first-round picks usually signing unless physical issues, but that’s the question about Carter Stewart. Pipeline and others have reported medical concerns, and I was curious if you had heard anything.
Keith Law: I won’t report medical concerns about players, if I know them, until after the player has signed. Doing so could jeopardize the player’s leverage and any potential scholarship – and, legally, I’d better have proof beyond any doubt that what I heard was correct. So I just don’t.

Guest: Do you believe Jonathan India can handle SS at the big league level?
Keith Law: No, but I’d send him out as a SS and see how it looks.

John : Generally a big fan of Inciarte, but it feels like the Braves are wasting so much of Acuña Jr’s value in left. Is it just too difficult to get a comparably valuable player to Ender, but with tools shifted more towards the bat than fielding? Also keeping Pache and potentially even Drew Waters in mind for the next 4 years that Ender is under contract.
Keith Law: I have argued since last fall that they should shop Inciarte.

Randy B: Is Kyle Wright showing the same potential for mid-rotation starter with a half season+ under his belt?
Keith Law: A little more than that. I’d like to see fewer walks, but he’s also essentially gone from the SEC to AA.

JC: Its very #scoutingthestatline but, Touki Toussaint’s BB/9 continues to trend downward (in the good way) & was recently promoted to AAA. What’s the outlook for him?
Keith Law: Potential #2 starter, still improving. Was very raw when he was drafted but had athleticism and a golden arm. Now he’s showing feel for three pitches and his control has gradually improved over a long sample now.

PhilG: Hey Keith what games are on your tabletop recently?
Keith Law: Tried Rising Sun, which is good but i think really plays much better with five than with three. I just got a review copy of Carthage to try out.

HugoZ: If I’m a fan of a contender, is there a case for hoping my team’s players won’t make the all-star team so they’ll have the extra days of rest?
Keith Law: Absolutely.

here’s your future: In the year 2030, there will be ____ MLB clubs? And will the divisions or playoff structures be radically different?
Keith Law: I could see 32 teams. I don’t think we have the markets to support more than that.

Jeries: Is Luis Robert’s thumb injury one that can linger throughout his career?
Keith Law: That would really surprise me, but it has certainly ruined his 2018. I’m hoping he’ll be in the AFL; that’s twice now that he’s gone on the shelf a day before I was scheduled to see him.

Larry: Atlanta is one of the few teams that have zero reported international signings. They’re still allowed to sign guys up to 300k this year, but it doesn’t look like they have yet. Is that strange a few days after the deadline? Are they planning to trade their money?
Keith Law: That isn’t strange. A lot of lower-dollar signings aren’t done immediately or aren’t widely reported.

Bill: Is Gavin Lux becoming a guy?
Keith Law: I’m a Lux fan, but bear in mind that the Cal League South is a great place to be a hitter. Rancho is a hitter’s park, and he’s got 9 games at Lancaster already (16 for 44, 2 hr, 6 doubles). So I don’t want to get too far ahead until he shows some of this is real when he gets to Tulsa.

trevor: will Tebow ever play a game in the majors?
Keith Law: I have zero doubt in my mind that he will. Probably in September, because the Mets are so bad, and they’ll decide this is a good way to get attention and more fans to the park.

Max: Why is Cavan Biggio not getting much love at AA? Is he being overshadowed or is he not that good a prospect?
Keith Law: He’s not a great prospect; he’s not a good defender at 2b, and while he has power he’s not that great a hitter, lacking good bat speed. He’s also kind of stopped hitting in the last five weeks or so after the crazy start.

Carl: Have you watched GLOW on netflix?
Keith Law: No. Currently watching The Leftovers and belatedly catching up on Archer (S6).

Jimmy: Dbacks system seems way too light for a Machado deal … pundits keep saying Duplantier would be main piece … ughh why would the Orioles trade w Dbacks ? Their system is so light
Keith Law: There is less than no chance the O’s people clear Duplantier, who is hurt again with a shoulder (excuse me, bicep) issue, given their history of killing guys with trivial medicals.

BassmanUW: Re: Ocasio-Cortez and the DSA, I think one point of confusion is that the DSA does have a long history of pushing for eventual nationalization of industry. Whether or not that’s still their official viewpoint, which on its own is hard to tell, they clearly have taken a bigger tent mentality to support candidates who are more in line with European Democratic Socialists, where focus is primarily on social safety net.
Keith Law: I wonder if calling themselves “Social Democrats,” as some of those European parties do, would help. Probably not. They’re going to be pilloried as communists, when their policy proposals are worth a reasonable discussion given the rising issues of economic inequality, loss of jobs to automation, and continued rising costs of health care.

Ed: Do you think MJ Melendez is behind all of those Royals prospects you listed?
Keith Law: I’m sure he is.

Anthony: Do you ever attend Saberseminar?
Keith Law: Once, but it has conflicted with something else on my calendar the last four years. I am not going this year.

Scott B.: Any Wilmington/Newark food recommendations?
Keith Law: Cocina Lolo is my favorite in the area. Two Stones is very good, as is Terrain just over the line in PA for finer dining. Also love de la Coeur, which has two locations in Wilmington.
Keith Law: Oh, and Bread & Buttercream in north Wilmington is an incredible artisan bakery with real European breads.

Jimmy: Nolan Gorman been raking … way too early … but still shocked he fell into Cardinals lap
Keith Law: I’m not shocked, given his spring, but I think they have to be thrilled to get that kind of upside at that pick.

Andy: Shohei is being brought back to hit. Will hitting hurt his elbow more than just resting? It seems the ship has temporarily sailed on surgery.
Keith Law: I really don’t know the answer to that – whether swinging the bat poses any additional risk to the elbow.

Patrick: Probably should have put my name in the first time I asked: Is what CC Sabathia has been doing the past few years smoke and mirrors, or is this something sustainable for him (at least through this year?)
Keith Law: I think it’s sustainable. Plenty of pitchers have good second acts at lower velocity by learning to work more with changing speeds and improving their command. (Plenty more can’t do it, of course.)

Matt : Thanks for taking the time to chat Keith. What’s your take on a guy like Ronny Mauricio? 17 years old, great start so far, except he still has 0 walks in over 60 at bats now. Any reason to be concerned?
Keith Law: Dear god, no. It’s 60 AB, and he’s not just 17, he’s barely 17. He’s 21 months younger than Jarred Kelenic. Stop looking for reasons to worry.

Jason: Considering how against the Hosmer signing you were, would a quantity package for Thor make sense for the Padres? They have a lot of players who need to be protected this year and next
Keith Law: No, it wouldn’t, not with what they have coming.

JB: Read somewhere that Bo Bichette has looked better at SS this year. Chances any better than 50/50 he can remain at SS, at least for the first several years of his big league career?
Keith Law: He hasn’t looked better at SS this year – I’ve seen him, talked to scouts who have. I really don’t think he stays at short.

Dan: Zach Eflin’s results look good but what about the scouting? Do you think he can be a mid-rotation guy in the long run?
Keith Law: Yes. Throwing harder across the board this year. Fastball is better, slider is playing up with more velocity (breaking stuff has long been his big weakness).

Guest: Any reason why Jon Gray got sent down? His FIP reflects that he still isn’t pitching terrible, and his K:BB numbers are as good as ever
Keith Law: FIP doesn’t do well with pitchers who are giving up a lot of hard contact – its assumption breaks down on those arms. And Gray was giving up a lot of hard contact. Some of that is the ballpark, of course, and I think if he pitched anywhere else we wouldn’t even be discussing this. But I wonder if the demotion was a mental breather too, since as you said, there’s nothing wrong with his stuff and he’s still doing some things well.

Billy: What is the best way to pay for college and healthcare for everyone? Are you comfortable with paying over 50% in income taxes, which is what a lot of economists believe it will take to implement a system close to what the DemSocs are promoting?
Keith Law: I’d much rather see a reduction in our defense budget before we get to histrionics over tax rates – but if you’re asking me would I pay higher income taxes, enough that I’d notice the difference, to help provide universal health care? Yes, yes I would. (And the cost of college is even more convoluted – by making loans so easy to acquire, we’ve enabled colleges to raise tuition at rates beyond inflation for two decades.)

Garrett: Keith do you buy this hitting from Taylor Ward? I know it is the PCL league but he also hit well in Mobile early in the year. Could he be legit?
Keith Law: It’s the PCL. I’m out.

Mikey: Jared Kelenic continues to do nothing but hit in the GCL. do you feel he should remain there or move up to Kingsport or even Brooklyn by the end of the year?
Keith Law: I’m all in on him, but he’s 19 so moving him up is a great idea.

Mike: Hey Keith, what kind of return should the Jays expect for Happ?
Keith Law: Best SP on the market? Granted that’s a backhanded compliment this year, but they should hold out for a good package, one with two real prospects in it.

James: Tatis Jr is pretty awesome. At what point do the strikeouts become worrisome?
Keith Law: As I said earlier, don’t look for reasons to worry. He’s 19 in AA, one of the youngest players above A-ball, and his K% was only really bad in April – he’s at 26% since May 1st.

Rob: Do you think the Cubs have buyers remorse on Yu Darvish? Granted he’s been hurt but he has also said some very stupid things.
Keith Law: I would guess they do, more for the injuries than the stupid things, which were stupid.

Michael: After Eloy and Robert, which White Sox outfield prospect do you like the most going forward?
Keith Law: Adolfo.

Brett: You’ve always said to be patient with Buxton. Is it okay to officially think this is what he will be offensively for the majority of his career?
Keith Law: Buxton has barely played this year. I’m curious what you “officially” think he’s done this season.

RJ : Was there ever a chance Manny Machado stayed with Baltimore after the 2018 season? What he’s said and hasn’t said over the years, I always figured he wanted to play in a big market.
Keith Law: Never. I don’t think they were ever going to be able to afford him, and I have long gotten the sense he didn’t want to play for that coaching staff either.

Zach: Love how a certain GM can be anti-porn but pro-second-chance-for-a-child-abuser. Party of family values!
Keith Law: Indeed, the anti-porn stuff is weird, not backed up by actual science, and I think may violate employment laws (you can’t force employees to listen to your religious crusades at the work place). Also, aren’t the Royals the last Pride Night holdouts? I may have forgotten a team.

Skip: Your hatred of Tebow is comical. Methinks you would be driving the Kaepernick bandwagon if he decided to try baseball, as his politics are more to your liking.
Keith Law: If Kaepernick tried to play baseball now, I’d judge him exactly as I’ve judged Tebow: as the player he showed himself to be on the field.

Logan: Any specific reason the Twins are having so much patience with promoting Royce Lewis?
Keith Law: He’s 19. I’d say arguing for a promotion to high-A is impatience.

Mike: Would a package of Kyle Wright, Luiz Gohara, and Cristian Pache be enough for Syndergaard? 4 years of a career 2.59FIP is very intriguing.
Keith Law: Three years, no? That’s a lot of talent to give up, though.

A big dumb idiot: I’m likely just blinded by Gleyber and Soto, but are top prospects better earlier in their careers than they used to be?
Keith Law: I feel like we’re seeing more guys come up at 21 or younger and succeed immediately than we did even ten years ago.

Leo: When talking about reliever usage, or overuse, is it more important to look at the number of games pitched or the amount of innings pitched?
Keith Law: Both. Throwing 90 innings in 90 games – thus with fewer days off – isn’t the same as 90 innings in 60 games.

Jeff: I know he’s old for his level (high-A), but is Laz Rivera a potential diamond in
the rough for CWS?
Keith Law: Saw him for about 8 AB too. Three horrendous strikeouts to start it out – totally overmatched by a LHP with some deception – but I saw him hit a (Laz) rocket out the second game. Probably worth bumping him to AA, since he’s 23, to get a better test of his abilities. I doubt he’s really that much of a prospect, but he does have bat speed and obviously more hand strength than I first realized.

TJ: Klaw, at what point in the draft do GMs start thinking, “I would be happy if this guy just became a decent major league player”?
Keith Law: If they’re honest with themselves, by the second round.

Brian: How many people out there realize that Daz’s dad was a superstar for a few years?
Keith Law: Not enough? That’s just my perception.

Hedonismbot: Justus Sheffield has had some sold starts lately. Think he makes a start in the majors soon?
Keith Law: Maybe in September. I’m a big fan though.

Santiago: any standouts on the Aberdeen roster?
Keith Law: Adam Hall is interesting. Some arm strength guys in the bullpen. That’s it.

Juan Soto: Did you underestimate me? (from 1 to 10, how much?)
Keith Law: No.

Touki Toussaint : Why am I not getting any love on top 100 lists?
Keith Law: I think you were on mine more than one year.

Adam: Type of prospect return you expect for Rasiel Iglesias? Top 20 sort of guy?
Keith Law: Top 20 in baseball? No. Much lower.

Chris: I’m wary on Amed Rosario’s bat. Long swing with no discernible pop. You buying long-term?
Keith Law: I am.

Ricky: Do you see Carter Kieboom turning into a solid MLB player?
Keith Law: Yes. More likely off SS. Can hit, great instincts.

DRL: Hi Keith. Love your baseball/prospect knowledge, but absolutely can’t stand your blatant disrespect for our president and your liberal rants on twitter. (not that any of that matters, we don’t all have to agree), but Baseball, Americas past time is made up of way more hard working republicans than the hand out wanting liberals. I think if you were to keep you’re political opinions to yourself, you would probably do better. (don’t have to post this, just wanted you to hear). Thanks.
Keith Law: I’m doing just fine, snowflake. Maybe keep your advice to yourself next time.

Dr. Bob: Is it fair to say that Tebow has outperformed expectations (at least, at times) but is still a long ways from ever being a real prospect?
Keith Law: You could. I don’t concern myself with that – he’s either a prospect or he’s not, and I say he’s not.

Hedonismbot: How much longer do the Yankees run Bird out there? He’s supposedly healthy now and had looked terrible.
Keith Law: For all the time he missed, he hasn’t been that bad. I don’t think he’s a problem for them right now.

Pat D: Have you heard that a Trogdor board game will soon be hitting Kickstarter? I’d imagine you’ll at least try that out, right?
Keith Law: I have. I think they’ll have a demo at GenCon.

Noah: What’s your thoughts on Luis Medina? Potential top of rotation upside?
Keith Law: Big upside, but I’d like to see some success from him before we get that excited.

Scott: A’s are in a weird spot. Definitely playing well, almost no chance of the playoffs, The old guys (Lowrie, Davis) are carrying a lot of the load. Should they just ride this season out with what they got and hope Puk and Cotton are good for 2019?
Keith Law: I’d shop the ‘old guys’ because they really aren’t in an economic position to be complacent.

JR: Given there is nothing going on in the sports world on the days before and after the All Star game, when MLB be smart to move the MLB draft to those days to get more media attention? Or would teams be against pushing it back because that also delays getting the players signed and playing in your organization by at least a month?
Keith Law: Everything you said there is correct. It would boost attention, but it would hurt the short-season teams. Also, what do players whose seasons ended in late April do for two months? Do you go play summer ball and risk injury or some drop in performance? I’d really like to see draft night be an MLB holiday, with only day games and thus nothing at night but the draft.

Mark: Does Corey Ray still project to be a solid MLB player? I wish the average was higher and the K% was lower, but at least he’s not striking out more than last year and the BB% is up. The physical tools still seem quite good.
Keith Law: Yes, but probably just a solid regular, which is a disappointment for me since I thought he had star potential at Louisville.
Keith Law: I had a scout tell me he’s back to no trigger/toe tap. He needs something for timing and weight transfer – at least a small tap and stride, maybe a full leg kick.

Rob: Favorite metal album of the half-year? My vote is Rivers of Nihil.
Keith Law: Tribulation.

Kevin: Any suggestions for getting a 4 year old to learn to read?
Keith Law: Just read with him/her. Kids learn when they’re ready. We never pushed our daughter, even though you all know I’m an obsessive, heavy reader, and she got there on her own time. She’s read well ever since she got the knack.

David Rave: How was your vacation? Where’d you go?
Keith Law: Dublin, Monaco, Genoa (my cousins live there), Milan for a night, back to Dublin. Ambitious but we had certain boxes to check, including my daughter’s desire to see the second smallest country in the world, and the fact that my cousins are in Genoa but not near a major airport. It was great and also exhausting.

Eric: Yankees are a pride night holdout, which as a yankee fan is disappointing
Keith Law: Yes, that is very disappointing.

Schwemm: You mentioned the top 4 in the Royals systems earlier. Too much swing and miss for Matias?
Keith Law: And not enough patience. If anyone can find a player at 19 or younger in low-A who had a season like his, please send it over. Gallo walked more, and you see what he’s become, for better and worse.

Jeff: Jim Bowden normally has some wacky trade ideas this time of year. He recently said CLE should trade Bieber and Mejia to CIN for iglesias and Garrett. Does he think he’s still running the Reds?
Keith Law: That’s a comically bad offer for CLE.

Brian: Whats something you now believe about evaluating players that you did not believe 5 years ago?
Keith Law: I think I’ve been too dogmatic on bad deliveries. I’m much more open-minded now about them. Also, I’m looking more at guys with Goldschmidt-like profiles – no big tools, but quiet approaches, good swings with enough loft for line-drive HR power. That’s why I never dismissed Hoskins as a prospect – he didn’t have a clear 6 on the scouting report but did a lot well and things just really worked at the plate.

David: Hi Keith. Dealing with a significant other who has always had anxiety. Seems worse now, and particularly after birth of child, and worried it is impacting her view of me. In your experience is that possible? How best to deal with it.
Keith Law: If she’s willing to get help, even counseling for the two of you, that’s a good start. You can’t help someone with mental illness who doesn’t want to be helped, though.

Joe: Any signings or non-signings surprise you in the draft? Or alter your evaluation of a team’s haul/picks? (with the deadline is nearing..)
Keith Law: Ask me next week. We get these “he’s not signing!” things every year and then everyone but one or two guys in the top ten rounds ends up signing.

Peter: What are some of the big takeaways you have heard from scouts on the talent on the Cape this summer?
Keith Law: League just started two weeks ago. It’s way too soon for that, with a month or so left.

Hedonismbot: Are you a fan of Castles of Mad King Ludwig? If so, any helpful hints? Definitely has been a hard game to pick up and teach, but it looks like a great game.
Keith Law: I’m not, but I want to try the Palaces standalone sequel game, which works with identically-sized tiles.

Ray: Random player from the past question: Kal Daniels. Why did he retire so young? Injuries? He had some really good season!
Keith Law: Injuries. I loved that guy.

Grant: Do Vladdy and Eloy get healthy in time for Futures, assuming they’re on the rosters?
Keith Law: Neither.

Robert: Anything positive to report on what you saw from Blake Rutherford?
Keith Law: No. Weak contact over and over.

Jay: Have you tried Istanbul on iOS? Enjoying it quite a bit. Have you played the physical version?
Keith Law: I loved the physical version, have the app but haven’t tried it yet. Still grappling with the Scythe pre-release alpha. I got 99 points in one game, and still one of the bots beat me with 102. I said some bad words.

Travis Toots: Anything you see in Devers that you think needs a tweak or adjustment? Not in panic mode like some others at all, just curious if you’ve noticed anything that he needs to work on in particular besides just experience
Keith Law: Not in the least. Going to be a star.

Igiloo McDaichly: There’s a school of thought I’ve seen advanced online that suggests that player contracts should be described as “bad” for the team, because that’s the fans siding with the team over the player in regards to compensation, and owners are billionaires anyway and can afford to pay players way more than they are currently making. Is that a reasonable critique, in your opinion?
Keith Law: Player opt-outs? Those are bad for the team. If you’re speaking more generally of fan sentiment against paying players more, then I agree but I think that’s a bigger and more complex issue of education.

re: DRL: Tell DRL I am a 80-hour a week working Democrat who loves your baseball and political takes. Tell him to trash his lazy stereotypes.
Keith Law: And really, what I say on Twitter is a fraction of what I believe about our current political environment.

Ray: Did you attend college with Rivers Cuomo? Just a random thought I had while listening to Weezer recently.
Keith Law: He went after I did.

trout and harper: What did you think of Trout and Harper right when they broke in? Did you have a preference? Are you surprised Trout is THIS good and Harper is a tiny bit stagnated? (Obviously still a star)
Keith Law: Had them 1-2 as prospects while they were eligible. I thought Trout was a superstar, but would really never suggest any player would become Willie Mays, as he has.
Keith Law: OK, that was extra long but after two weeks off I thought it only fair to answer more questions. I will be back next week to chat, and the week after as well, on the day that the top 50 prospect rankings go up (probably the 19th). I have two book signings coming up, July 14th at Politics & Prose in DC and July 28th at the Silver Unicorn in Acton, MA. Thanks as always for reading and for all of your questions – I’m sorry I only get to a small fraction of them. Keep an eye out for my Futures Game roster preview tomorrow morning!

The Death of Stalin.

The Death of Stalin (amazoniTunes) , the latest film from writer/director Armando Iannucci, is a rollicking farce that is only loosely based on the death of the dictator in question and the mad scramble for power in the vacuum that resulted, with Iannucci moving events and even people around to suit the story. It’s frequently funny in a face-palming sort of way, even when the story is more barely contained chaos than structured plot, and a reminder to me that I need to spend some time with Iannucci’s past and better-known work, including In the Loop and the HBO series Veep.

Stalin appears as a character early in the film, mostly so we can see the rest of the Central Committee playing obsequious Ed McMahons to his Johnny Carson, laughing at nonsensical jokes and trying hard to stay off of Stalin’s legendary enemies lists, people to be rounded up and exiled or, more likely, shot after torturing, with one of the Committee members appearing on the lists the night that Stalin takes ill. (His death is also fictionalized – he did die of a cerebral hemorrhage, but the proximate cause, in the film, is fictional and played for laughs.) After a brief bout of will-he-die-or-won’t-he, he finally kicks it, and the chess game to succeed him starts, except it’s chess as played mostly by people who’ve never played anything more than checkers, except for the scheming Nikita Khrushchev (Steve Buscemi) and the odious Lavrentiy Beria (Simon Russell Beale). The factions behind these two are fluid, often in a nearly literal sense as when the two sides try to squeeze past each other to be the first to offer emphatic condolences to Stalin’s daughter Svetlana (Andrea Riseborough).

Georgy Malenkov (Jeffrey Tambor) temporarily became the Soviet premier in Stalin’s death, but Khrushchev wrested much of the power away from him in the nine days afterwards, which roughly corresponds to the events shown in this film. Tambor plays him as a seasons 4/5 George Bluth with more of a temper, generally a step behind everyone else and thus easily outplayed by Khrushchev and Beria throughout the story. The fact that everyone seems to be operating at a different speed, often missing things right in front of their faces, provides much of the humor in the film and all of those face-palm moments, as one character says or does something that others completely miss or just fail to understand.

The second half of the film, where the real machinations start up, kicks in when the army arrives, led by Field Marshal Georgy Zhukov (Jason Isaacs, chewing scenery left and right), and Khrushchev cooks up his final scheme to wrest control of the Committee for himself by throwing Beria under the bus. From that point, the humor shifts from the almost slapstick, misunderstanding-driven comedy of the first half to a mixture of high- and lowbrow farce, from the game of telephone the leaders all play while standing around Stalin’s casket to the antics of Stalin’s drunken son Vasily (Rupert Friend).

There’s no point in this film where it’s not funny, which saves it from the fact that the plot is rather slapdash and doesn’t hew closely at all to real events. The dialogue never stops, and Iannucci isn’t afraid to mix some bathroom humor (about up to my tolerance for that stuff) in with political gags, notably in the Keystone Kops routine after Stalin’s unconscious but not-dead-yet body is first discovered. The framing of the film around a recorded concert and vengeful pianist doesn’t work well, and some of the other Committee members seem superfluous to both the plot and the comedy, although it was great to see Michael Palin (as Vyacheslav Molotov) on screen again.

The Death of Stalin isn’t a great movie, or a particularly sharp satire, but it is very funny, often with jokes that build on top of each other as scenes become increasingly absurd. (Buscemi’s dance around Tambor at the funeral is beyond description and wonderfully choreographed.) I laughed, often, and then forgot much of the plot once the film ended – and the incongruous if generally accurate ending does burst the comic bubble too. The humor is smart, but the rest of the story doesn’t back up the humor with anything of substance.

Music update, June 2018.

Twenty-six songs this month, running 107 minutes if you play them all through, and that’s after I cut a half-dozen tracks that would have pushed it past two hours. There are a few welcome returns here from old favorites as well as artists I just discovered myself, some of which are new to me and some just new, period. You can access the Spotify playlist here if you can’t see the widget below.

Death Cab for Cutie – Gold Rush. Ben Gibbard’s best song since … “You Are a Tourist?” Something off Narrow Stairs? I’m pleasantly surprised after Kintsugi felt like a holding pattern, this song has a clear, strong melody, and the repetition of the song’s title gives the music a vertiginous quality that keeps me a little off balance every time I listen to it.

Joy Oladokun – Sober. There’s almost nothing available about Oladokun, who calls herself a “soul singer from L.A.” and has released four songs to date but no album or EP. I’m calling it right now that someone will compare her to Tracy Chapman, for obvious if unfortunate reasons. She’s here because the chorus of this song is among the most memorable earworms I’ve heard this year and I think her voice, both literal and figurative, is incredibly distinctive.

HAERTS – New Compassion. HAERTS’ debut album came out in 2014, and since then we’ve had a handful of isolated singles, only one of which (“Animal”) was really up to the standard of their first full-length, so this powerful showcase of lead singer Nini Fabi’s voice is a welcome return for the group, now just a duo after two members left in 2015.

Stars – One Day Left. It’ll be hard for Stars to top their 2012 song “Hold On When You Get Love and Let Go When You Get It” for me, but this is their best song since then.

ZURICH – My Protocol. A big, bombastic vocal over a raw Matthew Sweet-esque guitar riff. I imagine the singer preening around the stage while he sings this even as the drums fill the room with sound.

Thrice – The Grey. Obligatory, but man do I love that minor-key guitar riff that opens up this song.

Iceage – Hurrah. I’m not a huge Iceage fan, although I think I fit their profile; this was the only song off the Danish punk-lite band’s latest album, Beyondless, that had a distinctive hook to it, reminiscent of the old Swedish act The Soundtrack of Our Lives.

Snail Mail – Golden Dream. Lindsey Jordan, just 19 years old, records as Snail Mail, and her debut album, Lush, is a surprisingly mature slice of jangle-pop, by turns delicate and potent. Her vocal style is an acquired taste, though.

St. Lucia – A Brighter Love. I thought St. Lucia’s debut album was one of the best records of the decade, but his follow-up had one great song, “Dancing on Glass,” with a lot of filler behind it. This feels promising, with a solid hook, more of the R&B flourishes that punctuated his first LP, but also a slightly more modern sound than the last record showed.

Interpol – The Rover. You pretty much know what you’re getting here, although I think the guitar riff at the opener, which appears throughout the song, gives it a poppier and brighter vibe than most Interpol songs feature.

Jealous of the Birds – Plastic Skeletons. Belfast’s Naomi Hamilton, who records as Jealous of the Birds, returns with this lead single from her upcoming EP, with a hypnotic vocal melody, thoughtful and clever lyrics, and a banging riff in the chorus.

Wild Nothing – Letting Go. This would fit well on Wild Nothing’s 2012 album Nocturne, which is a compliment after his derivative 2016 follow-up Life of Pause.

Sink Ya Teeth – Substitutes. Dark electronica from a female duo out of Norwich, with a bass-and-drum line reminiscent of early New Order. Their self-titled debut album came out on Friday.

The Charlatans – Standing Alone. I still love the Charlatans’ early output, but they fell off hard around 2001’s Wonderland and have never quite recovered their earlier verve. This track, from the four-track EP Totally Eclipsing, hints at their peak sound but never quite gets there for me.

Lokoy – Malibu. Lokoy is the bassist for Sløtface, who had one of my favorite albums of 2017, but this track – with a vocal from Norwegian teenager Girl in Red – is nothing like his regular band’s punk-pop styling, instead going trip-hoppy like early Gorillaz.

At Pavillon – Stop This War. I thought this was a Bloc Party track at first, between the music and the vocalist’s similarity to Kele Okerere. It’s a promising debut for the Austrian quartet (and, yes, their lead singer is black).

Beth Orton & the Chemical Brothers – I Never Asked To Be Your Mountain. I can’t believe “Stolen Car,” Orton’s biggest hit and one of my favorite songs of the 1990s, will be 20 years old in February. She still sounds great on this collaboration with the Chemical Brothers, with whom she first worked in 1995 on the electronic duo’s album Exit Planet Dust.

Indian Askin – BEAT24. This Dutch quartet put out a new single, “I Feel Something,” on June 1st, but I prefer what is essentially the B-side, “BEAT24,” for its driving guitar riff and an overall vibe that reminds me of Beck’s Mellow Gold.

Black Honey – I Only Hurt the Ones I Love. This British alternative quartet hasn’t really missed with any of their singles so far, and just announced their debut album, called Black Honey, will drop on September 21st.

The Joy Formidable – Dance of the Lotus. The Welsh alternative band has put out two singles already – this one and “The Wrong Side” – in advance of their latest album, Aaarth, due out September 28th.

Wooden Shjips – Golden Flower. I think at this point if I haven’t sold you on Wooden Shjips’ noodling art rock, I’m probably never going to.

Here Lies Man – That Much Closer To Nothing. All media coverage of this trio refer to their sound as “afrobeat stoner metal,” although I feel like it’s ’70s psychedelic metal with a heavy funk influence. I’m also not entirely sure what afrobeat music sounds like. This song is good, though.

Motorowl – Atlas. Motorowl’s members are in their early 20s but their sound is very 1970s, blending Sabbath/Candlemass doom elements with some faster and heavier riffing. This is the lead single from their second album, also called Atlas, due out on July 27th.

The Skull – The Endless Road Turns Dark. Fans of the 1980s/1990s doom metal and later gothic hard rock act Trouble should recognize the voice of Eric Wagner, who founded The Skull in 2012 with two former members of his earlier band. The sound is very similar to Trouble’s first two albums, Psalm 9 and The Skull, before they signed with Def American and pivoted towards more mainstream hard rock.

Leprous – Golden Prayers. Despite their name, Leprous aren’t a death-metal or goregrind act – they’re an avant-garde metal act from Norway who probably have more in common with King Crimson than King Diamond, using unusual time signatures and progressive elements along with traditional vocals that even feature harmonies. They just released a new album last August, but this surprise single appears to be a one-off for now.

Zeal & Ardor – Built On Ashes (short version). Zeal & Ardor is the brainchild of Manuel Gagneux, who decided to try to fuse Negro spiritual vocals and harmonies with the sort of fuzzed-out death metal recently popularized by Deafheaven. I also recommend “Servants” from Z&A’s latest album, Stranger Fruit.

Annihilation.

Paramount made some curious decisions earlier this year with the release of the film Annihiliation (amazoniTunes), loosely based on the Jeff VanderMeer novel of the same name (which I have not read yet), including an off-period release date in the U.S. and the sale of the film directly to Netflix for most of the world (other than the U.S., Canada, and China). Marketing of the film wasn’t great either; I saw the trailer before its theatrical run, and the trailer doesn’t represent the film well at all, overselling the horror elements and underselling the story. The result is that the movie didn’t fare that well at the box office despite positive reviews, undercut somewhat by Paramount’s machinations and I think the failure to push this film as a smart sci-fi flick that overcomes some modest flaws with a big finish.

The movie opens with Lena (Natalie Portman) in medical isolation, being interrogated by a British scientist (Benedict Wong) about what happened to her on a mission that went wrong and from which she is the only survivor. She’s somewhat vague on details, after which we flash back to before the mission and see that she’s a professor at Johns Hopkins Medical School and that her husband, a special forces Sergeant (Oscar Isaac), has been missing for a year and is presumed dead. He shows up at the house one day, but is totally vacant and almost immediately begins hemorrhaging, which eventually leads to Lena volunteering to lead a mission of five women soldiers and researchers into a mysterious, growing region called the Shimmer, into which the military has sent many missions but from which only Lena’s husband has ever returned. The women find a seemingly impossible environment where animals and plants are swapping DNA, with increasingly horrifying results the longer the team stays within its boundaries.

Annihilation has two main conceits in its story: the ongoing mystery of what the Shimmer is and what it’s doing, and the fact that previous teams have all disappeared and are likely dead, a Lovecraftian mystery trending towards horror since we know from the start that Lena is the only survivor. (The Wikipedia entry on the movie notes the script’s similarity to a Lovecraft short story, “The Colour of Space.”) The former is revealed gradually at first, but proceeds in fits and starts in accordance with discoveries the team makes and with Lena’s examinations of blood and other cells under her microscope. The latter builds as the story progresses and the team moves through the Shimmer with increasing disorientation; they encounter animals that loosely resemble familiar creatures but that have evolved at impossible speeds. Eventually Lena reaches the lighthouse at the center of the Shimmer and discovers something more of the nature of the anomaly in a gorgeous special-effects sequence right before her final battle to escape.

The script does waste too much time on irrelevant details outside of the mission, including Lena’s affair with a colleague while her husband is missing, a subplot that is neither germane to the main story nor resolved in any satisfactory manner during the film. And while screenwriter/director Alex Garland (Ex Machina) tries to give the team members some identities as individuals, none but Lena comes across as much more than a redshirt, not even ostensible team leader Dr. Ventress (Jennifer Jason Leigh), so none of their losses is particularly tangible to the viewer. One team member cracks under the stress after the first death and another attack, which is foreshadowed in earlier dialogue but really not well explained by her character at all. Lena’s decision not to reveal to other team members that her husband was on an earlier mission is played up as a major issue, but without justifying why that’s a big deal or why the team member who cracks is so angry about the omission.

There are two scenes of gore in Annihiliation, more than enough to earn its R rating but not so much that I’d call this a straight horror film. There’s more of an intellectual undercurrent to the script than the trailer gave it credit for having; the way the Shimmer evolves, and then affects the members of the team, poses real questions about what it means to be human or even conscious, ones the film doesn’t try to answer even as characters directly ask what the Shimmer “wants.” Maybe it was just too hard to market on its own merits, but Annihilation is intense and smart enough to deserve to find an audience now that it’s more widely available.

Stick to baseball, 6/30/18.

I’m back from a European vacation that took us to Dublin, southern France, Monaco (my daughter really wanted to see it), Genoa (to visit my cousins there), and Milan. I ate a lot of gelato, which is the most important part, isn’t it? Before I left I did file one Insider piece, the annual top 25 players under 25 list, and please read the intro because as usual many people didn’t.

Over at Paste, my review of Merlin, the really awful new game from Stefan Feld, also went up while I was gone. Feld has designed several games I love, including The Castles of Burgundy, so this point-salad mess was a huge disappointment.

Book signings! I’ll be at Politics & Prose in Washington DC, with my friend Jay Jaffe, to talk baseball and both of our books on July 14th at 6 pm, and will be at Paul Swydan’s new bookstore The Silver Unicorn in Acton, Massachusetts, on July 28th at 1 pm (waiting for the link but it is confirmed). I will also be at the Futures Game in DC on the 15th.

And now, the links…

American Animals.

American Animals is based very closely on a true story – the 2004 attempt by four college students in Kentucky to steal several rare books from Transylvania University’s special collection, including John James Audobon’s The Birds of America. Rather than unfurling as a traditional heist movie, however, the script focuses more on the four kids involved, interspersing interviews with all of them throughout the movie to try to get at why they tried something so stupid and so incredibly unlikely to work.

Spencer Reinhard (Barry Keoghan) and Warren Lipka (Evan Peters) are both friends living in Lexington, Kentucky, where Reinhard attends Transylvania and studies art, when he sees the Audobon book on an orientation tour of the library and learns it’s worth about $12 million. He tells Warren, and during one (or more) of their weed-fueled conversations, they decide to try to steal and sell it, less for the money than for the adventure, as Warren in particular talks about how pointless and empty their lives seem to be. They eventually recruit accounting student Eric Borsuk (Jared Abrahamson), who at least brings some rational thinking to the logistical planning, and Chas Allen (Blake Jenner), the getaway driver, and spend months cooking up a plan after doing “research” like watching old heist movies. The robbery itself goes very poorly and they’re arrested not long afterwards, but by that point in the film, the theft seems beside the point, as the unclear motivation of the four stooges overtakes questions of whether it’ll work.

The movie starts with confessional interview clips with the real Reinhard and Lipka, as well as comments from their parents and an old teacher or two, before shifting into the ‘fictional’ part of the movie (although the intro takes pains to tell us the story is true). Director Bart Layton continues to sprinkle comments from the four men, all since released from prison, throughout the film, and uses their differing recollections to show the same scene in two ways, and elucidate how unreliable our memories can be. The trick is clever, although I’m not sure it gets enough to what seems to be the main point of the script, which is that no one, including the four men themselves, can fully explain why they wanted to do this or thought it might work. They refer to it as an “adventure,” which sort of makes sense, until the plan starts to involve subduing the librarian through force, which should have snapped at least one of these four out of their delusion. They’re clearly not dumb, although the plan itself was; Reinhard and Lipka are both thoughtful and articulate, and with the more reticent Borsuk they all seem better able to express now how ill-considered the plan was and how remorseful they feel now for the people they hurt. But can being bored and maybe a little rudderless in life really take a kid like Reinhard, who appears to have never been in any trouble before this, and make him the co-mastermind of a multi-million dollar heist?

The problem with American Animals isn’t the story, but the direction by Layton, who also wrote the script. Layton, perhaps best known for the documentary Imposter, has made his first non-documentary feature here, and has far too heavy a hand, making his influence felt everywhere in the movie when he needed to just let it breathe. The constant rotating camera shots are beyond distracting to the point of dizzying – it’s clearly a gimmick for Layton, and it adds nothing to the film at all, especially since scenery is never the point here. The music is even more distracting; the movie uses few songs contemporary to the time of the planning or heist, with a ton of music from the 1970s, and the volume is often overpowering.

The actors playing the four thieves are solid, although Peters particularly stands out for his portrayal of Lipka as the driving force behind the plan – emotional, erratic, daring, and above all charismatic. Keoghan gets at the hesitation Reinhard expresses in interviews after the fact, although he gives the sense throughout the film of someone who’s physically and emotionally tired more than someone who’s bored and looking for a thrill. And nothing the actors do can touch the emotional responses the men give in confessional clips shown at the end of the movie, where several fight back tears (of shame or embarrassment) as they consider the consequences of their actions. Maybe American Animals would have worked better as a straight documentary, or just if Layton had eased up on the throttle and let the story drive the direction more.

Thoroughbreds.

Thoroughbreds (amazoniTunes) is sort of Discount Heathers, with a girl playing the disaffected provocateur role, and a lower body count, plus an ending that doesn’t quite hold together as tightly as its obvious inspiration. Even with some of its flaws, however, it’s so tightly written and features two riveting performances by its leads that it’s worth seeing even if you, like me, have fond memories of the 1988 darkly comic original.

Thoroughbreds starts out with the two teenaged protagonists reuniting after several years apart, meeting as Andover student Lily (Anya Taylor-Joy) begins to tutor the peculiar Amanda (Olivia Cooke), the latter of whom has apparently just killed her horse. Amanda has exceptional perception and quickly sees through Lily’s pretenses, while also confessing to extreme emotional detachment: Amanda is anhedonic and perhaps antisocial, feeling nothing whatsoever and showing it in her perpetually neutral expressions. Her gaze and her tone are both disarming, which leads to the first of many funny scenes when Lily finally cops to the fact that Amanda freaks her out.

The plot kicks into gear shortly afterwards when Amanda suggests to Lily that she kill her controlling and vaguely creepy stepfather, Mark, who is very wealthy and berates Lily’s ineffectual mother. (Although I thought the film implied early in the script that Mark was at the least leering at Lily, if not actually attempting to abuse her, that turned out to be wrong, and Mark is just an asshole, but not a criminal.) Lily is aghast at the idea, until she sees Mark verbally abuse her mother again and finds out he’s decided to send her to a different boarding school, after which she tells Amanda she wants to go through with it. They plan to use a lowlife drug dealer, Tim (Anton Yelchin in what I think ended up his last film role), as hitman, although his willingness and his competence are both open questions. As the plan progresses, it turns out that Lily isn’t quite the delicate flower – or lily-white princess – she appears to be.

Taylor-Joy is perfect as Lily, embodying both the perfect little white girl persona and the stuck-up prep school teenager, but it’s Cooke as Amanda who grabs the wheel and steers the movie all the way to the big finish. Cooke has to be convincing as this weary, wise, incisive kid who is fooled by nobody and who rigorously applies logic to every situation, including understanding why people will act in specific ways and how to use that to their advantage. And she is, to an exceptional degree – her delivery is so dry, and her face so impassive, that Cooke sells Amanda as a teenaged automaton, making everything that comes afterwards credible, because nothing in this film works without that character. Taylor-Joy works, and it wouldn’t surprise me if she had the bigger career of the two, but Cooke has this film by the throat and never lets go.

Cory Finley made his debut as both director and screenwriter with Thoroughbreds, crafting those two compelling characters and working in plenty of very dark humor, although he seemed unsure of how to stick the landing, and the film wobbles as a result before more or less staying on its feet. Amanda’s motivation at the climax is unclear or just hard to accept, and the brief coda doesn’t add anything to the story; ending the film in the final shot with Lily and Amanda together would have been more effective. There are also some extremely strong and unsettling shots of the girls’ faces that add to the noir-ish feel of the film without interrupting its flow. It’s a very auspicious first effort for Finley, however, marking him as a filmmaker to watch, as well as a star turn for Cooke.