My latest Insider post has my scouting notes on some Yankees, Orioles, and Pirates prospects, plus thoughts on an umpshow I witnessed in Trenton on Tuesday.

Keith Law: People give your ears, so I be sublime. It’s Klawchat.

addoeh: Remember how excited you were as a kid when you opened a pack of baseball cards and saw a Doug Harvey or an Eric Gregg in there?
Keith Law: I have a complete set from 1985. I think it’s worth like three or four dollars now.

Andrew: So Jayson Werth said this, in his diatribe about how “nerds” are killing baseball: “… I think it’s killing the game. It’s to the point where just put computers out there. Just put laptops and what have you, just put them out there and let them play. We don’t even need to go out there anymore. It’s a joke.” Do people really misunderstand the purpose of analyzing data to this degree? Isn’t this the baseball equivalent of science-deniers discrediting evolution because “I’ve never seen a monkey turn into a human”?
Keith Law: I knew Werth a little in Toronto and was kind of shocked to see him go full denialist like that. He was one of the friendliest players to me at a time when I was quite an oddball due to my role (and probably due to my personality). I can only assume he’s just frustrated that his career ended before he was ready … but he made a lot of money because those same ‘nerds’ he decried pointed out how valuable he really was.

Meeeeeee: Hey, Keith… Given that Bellinger was never a huge power prospect in the minors, is it likely that his 2017 HR total was an aberration and that this year’s output is more likely to be what he produces in the future (with more batting average)?
Keith Law: Bellinger was always a huge power prospect.

Zach: Is Lucas Sims similar to two of the Reds’ existing former top prospects Robert Stephenson and Cody Reed?
Keith Law: No, I’d put him behind those guys today or if I were trying to rank them all based on where they were as prospects.

Matt: Dark Helmet is tweeting about “Space Force all the way!” Not like there’s anything important to tackle like climate change, fires in California, Flint, refugees, etc.
Keith Law: I can only assume the Gorilla Channel aired a marathon of V yesterday.

Scott: I will be in Pittsburgh next month (yes, going to PNC as part of trip) and looking for some restaurant recommendations if you have any good ones, thanks.
Keith Law: I haven’t been there in almost ten years. I believe two of my old favorites are still open though – Pamela’s (greasy spoon breakfast place) and Spice Island Tea House.

Rich Bower: Brendan McKay has looked great pitching – does he project more power on the batting side? Thanks as always!
Keith Law: I’ve talked to three scouts who’ve seen him recently. All have him rated very highly as a pitcher and say he should give up hitting just to focus on the mound now. Not that he couldn’t hit but he’s farther behind that way.

RK: I know you expected Royce Lewis to be a CF when he was drafted, have you changed your stance on that or no?
Keith Law: No, not sure why I would. Reports I’ve gotten are that his bat is incredibly advanced, he’s every bit as smart and instinctive on the bases as advertised, but that he’s got a long way to go to be passable at short.

JR: What are your thoughts on Tyler Mahle? He’s been great in some games this year and awful in others?
Keith Law: He’s been extremely homer-prone at home, which is unsurprising from the ballpark but still bad (16 in 52.2 IP!). The part that shocks me is that he’s walked so many guys, and weirdly enough is doing that more on the road (probably a sample-size fluke, but still, why?). He was always a command guy where you hoped the stuff was enough to make him more than a 4/5.

Bren: Do any of the more powerful FO executives like Theo have any kind of decision making power written into their contracts? The Mets desperately need to hire a strong GM/VP, but is there any way they can ensure Jeff Wilpon doesn’t end up undermining them constantly?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but I haven’t seen any of those contracts, either. I can imagine that the Cubs know that if Theo were to get undermined by one of the Ricketts’ kids (when they’re not busy propping up the kakistocracy), he’d quit.

Rick Sanchez: What kind of power ceiling do you see for Bo Bichette? He hasn’t produced many homers throughout his minor league career, but I’ve seen his power rated as high as 70.
Keith Law: I don’t know who rated him there – no scout I’ve talked to, certainly. I’ve seen Bichette a ton since HS, and I could see a future 70 hit tool, but with 55 power.

Stan: Have you ever been approached with an opportunity to teach at the university level? You are an Ivy League grad, have worked successfully in a high level industry, are very well written and spoken and, most importantly, can find racism in even the most benign of situations.
Keith Law: I’ve never understood privileged people like you who think there’s value in claiming there isn’t racism in situations where other people believe it exists. If you can’t see the microaggression in, say, publicly questioning whether a Dominican prospect has lied about his age, or why a panel of six members of the same organization from the same time period that excludes all players of color (when that team included current employee Fred McGriff) poses huge problems of representation and signals to people of color that their views aren’t valued, well, maybe sit this one out.

TC: Is there still hope for Rosario becoming an impact player? .273 OBP in 153 career games suggests he has a long way to go.
Keith Law: wow, 153 whole games.

NYTT: What’s the next step in Ian Anderson’s development? Where do you see him settling in when he gets to Atlanta?
Keith Law: Just promoted to AA yesterday. I assume you’re asking his ceiling – I think a #2 starter, maybe more. Heard nothing but great things from his recent outings.

brian: simple rule change — only the crew chief can throw out a player… if crew chief sees player arguing balls and strikes or throwing at a batter – so be it… will at least limit the umpshow!
Keith Law: I think last night’s incidents with Soto and Justin Turner highlights the problem. If Soto gets tossed for calmly pointing out that a call was wrong – you have to see Jerry Layne’s postgame comments, it’s so clear that he values the umpires’ egos over getting the call right I wanted to throw up just reading them – while Turner acts as he did and doesn’t get run, well, we have a pretty serious problem of inconsistency.

Andy E: Hey Keith, I just have to ask why you are such a nerd and love being such a NERD?!?!?!?!

Actually no real question, just wanted to say I love your work.
Keith Law: Thanks. I am a nerd and do love it.

Scott: Luis Garcia continues to rake in High-A at 18 years old. If he finishes out this year in similar fashion, does he have the potential to be a top 50 prospect heading into next year? Or is his ceiling not that high?
Keith Law: He’s certainly a top 100 guy. He’s blown past Antuna, who got 3x the money and was the higher ceiling guy, but whose body has gone totally south on him.

Billy: If the season ended today, who is your NL MVP, and who do you think would actually win?
Keith Law: deGrom. No clue who’d win.

Nick: Have you seen Jake Holmes (Phillies ‘17 11th rounder) this year? Numbers look good and wanted to see if your observations match up.
Keith Law: I haven’t. He’s 20 in short-season.

brian: Your ESPN brother posted an interesting article today that wins on a year to year basis are worthless BUT a good marker for a career review… any thoughts?
Keith Law: They’re not. Ask Bert Blyleven.

A big dumb idiot: Danny Jansen has been raking for 2 seasons now, but I’m unsure of the consensus on his defence. Could you let me know what you’ve heard?
Keith Law: Playable.

John: Royals farm system… Still bad? Terrible? Any names to keep an eye on as potential ‘next wave’ of talent players?
Keith Law: Outside of the 2018 draft, it’s bottom 2 or 3. They added a huge infusion of moderate-ceiling but high-probability talent, which is kind of what they needed most after some high picks used on prep arms haven’t worked out.

James: In the perpetually ongoing battle to shorten game length, why not limit the number of warm-up pitches? This is done quite effectively in Japan, and honestly, while the time difference isn’t going to be significant, it feels like an incredibly low-impact change to make.
Keith Law: The only warm-up pitches that might affect game length are those thrown by relievers when they enter the game. You could argue that those pitchers should be warmed up already. The rest are largely just filling time during ever-longer commercial breaks.

John: I’ve been curious about player development and stolen bases lately. Is there a reason that teams don’t have all their prospects running frequently in the minors? Even for slow guys, but especially the fast ones, it seems like it would help them develop better “baserunning intuition” and perfect skills like picking up pitcher moves and sliding, at no real cost. Can always have them tone it down when they get to MLB.
Keith Law: It hurts the hitters.

G: I enjoyed today’s write-up on prospects, but am mostly interested in your thoughts on Ke’Bryan Hayes. You mention his 3 hard-hit balls–has he made the swing changes necessary for future power?
Keith Law: I have never had a big problem with his swing. He’s just been more of a high-contact guy – and I think the Pirates preach that over power.

Chuck: What do you make of Seattle’s scouting purge? Are those jobs going to be filled?
Keith Law: That report that they let 10 scouts go was wrong. They did let six scouts go, which still isn’t great, but don’t you have to get that number right before reporting it? My understanding is that they’re not reducing their total number of scouts.

tom: Hi Keith. Do you think Chris Paddack becomes a #2 starter? Has he developed a 3rd pitch yet or is this a case of him just dominating the lower minors with 2 pitches? His numbers are unreal!
Keith Law: He doesn’t have an average breaking ball and I think that limits his ceiling, although he’s really good for a two-pitch guy (it’s a 70 CH) and is probably ready for the majors now.

Nick: Why wouldn’t the Indians try to increase Yandy Diaz’ launch angle? With his approach, exit velo, and defense, he seems like a potential star if he doesn’t hit 60% of his balls on the ground.
Keith Law: He’s always hit the ball hard when I’ve seen him. Some guys can’t make that adjustment or don’t want to try.

Kevin w : Why does our country spend so much on defense when we have no border disputes…couldn’t this money be spent on education, healthcare, and programs like social security?
Keith Law: Defense spending is never questioned. If you do, then you hate America.

romorr: There enough J2 talent to justify that Gausman trade if we lose out on Victor Victor? That inclusion of O’Day is awful right? A rebuilding team saving 10 million, at the costs of better prospects, is indefensible.
Keith Law: There’s no justifying it even if you get VVM, because the trade only gave you a ‘portion’ of him. I am assuming ownership ordered Duquette to shave payroll.

tom: I know he’s only 17, but is Wander Franco a guy you see in the majors at 19, like a Juan Soto. What’s his power ceiling?
Keith Law: Yes. 25+ homer guy. I’ll be shocked if he is still on the minors on the day he turns 20, barring injury.

Hungry: I’ll keep trying to get this answered…are there any moral issues with cooking shows? I love to watch them, but also can’t help but feel bad for the all the wasted food that could be used for better purposes than to watch a judge take a few bites for our entertainment.
Keith Law: I don’t know why you keep asking when I’ve declined to answer for … a year? I have no idea what happens to that food. We don’t know if it’s “wasted” or consumed by the crew or donated. It’s an unanswerable question.

Mike: Bryan Reynolds is getting on base at his career normal level, but he is slugging well below his career norm. Do you attribute that to his hamate bone injury at the beginning of the season? Something more? I know you just saw Altoona, do you think he can be an every day player? Thanks!
Keith Law: The hamate doesn’t help but he’s also never shown the same game power in pro ball as he has in BP or in college.

Bryan: What kind of player is Dereck Rodriguez going forward? Is he just a great story or a legit mid rotation guy for the future?
Keith Law: Back end starter. Dude’s been extremely lucky – 4 HR allowed in 73 innings with his flyball rate isn’t going to last.

romorr: DL Hall should finish the year in A+, he is on fire his last 10 or so starts. Has he done enough to sneak into the top 100?
Keith Law: He was mentioned in my midseason prospects update.

John: Is Joe Simpson the worst or The. Worst.
Keith Law: He’s had a bad week. He’s also taken some shots at me over the years, so perhaps I’ll just let his words speak for him.

Nick: Any potential star position players (regardless of risk) in the Phillies system? They have the pitching but I’m skeptical about their position players.
Keith Law: I think Ortiz has a star bat but needs a position. 1B might work.

Joules: Thanks for the chats. What would you be asking for in return for Inciarte?
Keith Law: It’s whatever the market will return. He’s surplus now. They missed their ideal window to deal him.

Frank : Which WAR do you prefer, baseball reference or fangraphs?
Keith Law: I look at both.

Chris: Klaw, who is your leader for AL ROY right now. Thanks!
Keith Law: It’s Gleyber easily.

Kevin w : What do the reds need to do this offseason to be competitive in the next few years?
Keith Law: I don’t think they need to do something this offseason, but they need to figure out why their pitching prospects have fared so poorly in the majors or sometimes in AAA; and they need to get more out of Latin American scouting.

bob: Higher upside, Alex Kiralloff or Alex Verdugo?
Keith Law: Verdugo is the better athlete and defender. I feel more optimistic that Kirilloff will hit, though.

Jonathan: Is Nolan Gorman for real? The Cardinals seem to be really aggressive with him
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s aggressive given what he did in the Appy League and his raw power. Challenge him with better pitching; he’ll be better prepared for low-A next spring. Maybe he just had some draft-itis and is over it now that he’s signed.

Dana: Twelve K’s for CC Sabathia last night. How many more seasons does he need to pitch like this to be a HOFer?
Keith Law: He’s on the borderline already. Another two seasons like this would probably strengthen his case among the stat guys who argue for such players, myself included.

Jay: I was at the Nats game last night and was glad I paid to see Greg Gibson miss so many calls. Soto complaining was the culmination of many guys having an issue with Gibson.
Keith Law: Gibson had a horrible night calling balls and strikes. He should be better at his job.

Jerry: I find it interesting in that you expect umpires to put up with most of the abuse directed at them by players, even if the umpires themselves believe they are correct in their calls. Meanwhile, you summarily block anyone on social media with the gall to disagree with your opinions that are not always mainstream. Seems a bit contradictory.
Keith Law: Imagine being so stupid to think that these are equivalent. Being on social media is not my job, or part of my job, or even something ESPN requires of me. I don’t have to tolerate anything on there – and, dumbass, I only block people who are abusive. When people start swearing at me or calling me gay slurs or a see-you-next-tuesday, yeah, I’ll block them. And if Soto actually called Gibson one of those things, then he deserved to be ejected.

tim: Any concerns over Gore’s inconsistency in A ball this season, Keith? He seems to have one lights out start – then struggle. Still see him as a #1 starter?
Keith Law: Yes, I do. He’s 19 and has very little experience in pro ball.

Darnell: Is Peter Alonso’s future a DH? How do you like Andres Gimenez?
Keith Law: I like Gimenez but don’t see an impact bat there. Alonso is probably 60/40 DH/1b for me.

Guest: Now that Senzel is out for the year, do you think the Reds will say “he needs time to rehab” as an excuse to get an extra year of control next year?
Keith Law: Actually giving him three weeks in the minors in April is the right business move. I’m fine with that. I’d love to see him in the majors ASAP, selfishly, but I get it.

John : San Francisco/Palo Alto dinner recommendations?
Keith Law: Cotogna, flour + water, never been to State Bird but I hear it’s amazing.

Adam: What is the ceiling for Brusdar Gaterol? Been great so far this year.
Keith Law: I’ve heard closer/power reliever. Obviously you hope he can start but command isn’t close right now.

ZVN: Keith, you’ve been doing an exceptional job filling in for Buster on the BBT pod. I know you said you’re too lazy to do a pod every day, but would you ever be open to starting your own pod down the road? Doesn’t even have to be all about baseball. You’d definitely have a subscriber here. I’ll hang up and listen
Keith Law: Thank you! I do enjoy my week as guest host each year.

Kevin w : Would monopoly make your top 1000 board games?
Keith Law: Yes assuming I just ranked every game I’ve ever played (which has to be something like 300 by now)

Aaron C.: How would YOU handle Jesus Luzardo? I’ve read elsewhere the A’s will shut him down when he reaches an (post-TJ surgery) innings cap. Would you let him throw his last, say, 12 innings in a couple of starts in Oakland?
Keith Law: I would probably shift him to a long relief sort of role so he can get a cup of coffee in September and help lengthen the big league staff. I do worry about the breaking ball being fringy for the majors, but this is how you find out.

john: Will Daz Cameron have the same power like his Dad?
Keith Law: I doubt that.

Kevin w : Betts the 2nd best player?
Keith Law: For me, yes.
Keith Law: Javy Baez being first, of course.

KC: Do you see the Royals Nicky Lopez as a MLB regular at SS, 2B, or neither.
Keith Law: Don’t think he’s a regular at SS, but the bat is probably good enough to play everyday somewhere.

Carlo: Thoughts on Deivi Garcia? Is there significant reliever risk there?
Keith Law: There is, given his size, but I believe he has very good spin rates on the FB and breaking ball, and the results are tremendous. Probably won’t see him till next year when he gets to Trenton.

romorr: What has happen to Cody Sedlock? Heard he was overworked in college.
Keith Law: He was badly overworked in college, and the O’s didn’t help matters after he signed. He’s never been right since then.

Wes: I know he’s far away, but does Vidal Brujan have enough hit tool to project as a big leaguer?
Keith Law: Pure hit tool makes him a big leaguer. Needs something else to profile as a regular.

squeeze bunt: I swing back and forth between thinking the country will be ok, and that everything is falling apart. Are we going to be ok as a country?
Keith Law: Although I am truly not a pessimist by nature, I think we have done enough damage internally that we will never be the same and will be worse off for years if not decades from what Trump and his followers have wrought.

Tommy: Hey Keith, love your chats. Who do you feel has the higher ceiling – Luzardo, Sheffield or Mize? Do you feel all are future #2’s or do you think one is in a seperate tier from the others?
Keith Law: Again, ranked all three guys here in my midseason rankings, with ceilings discussed.

Chris: Is Erik Swanson more of the righty version of Josh Rogers or Montgomery (not in style but in terms of MiL stats vs outlook)?
Keith Law: Yeah, sounds like 6th starter type.

Jon: Keith, do you think parents/Little League coaches will try to start coaching things like incline angle, spin rate or defensive shifts? How long would you think it would take for stuff like this to trickle down so that it could be done knowledgeably?
Keith Law: I think there are absolutely parents and youth coaches doing this crap already. They shouldn’t.

AM: I have a serious question. I’m not bipolar and I’m not depressed. I don’t think I have a mental disorder but there are times where I will randomly think I just want to literally kill myself and 3 seconds later that urge is gone. It doesn’t happen often maybe once every two weeks. Is this something I should be concerned about for my mental health?
Keith Law: Yes. You should absolutely go talk to a doctor about this. I’m happy to help people who reach out with mental health issues, but what you describe is too serious for me to try to tackle as a non-professional.

Denis: Have you heard any reporting on Julio Urias? Is he still capable of being a #2 starter?
Keith Law: Eric Longenhagen has seen him and reported that Urias’ velocity is way down. I said when Urias had the surgery that he was likely done.

John : Thoughts on Bryan Mata? High walk rate at hi-a, but still only 19
Keith Law: Big arm but reliever with that slot/delivery.

Chip: Any update on Victor Victor Victor Victor or whatever his name is?
Keith Law: Still not cleared. Also your prose is too prolix.

Chris: Any thoughts on Jeff McNeil? Still an org guy?
Keith Law: I don’t think I said he was an org guy. I don’t think he’s a significant prospect or a regular.

James: Has that cutter suddenly made Nathan Eovaldi a $12M guy? Is he worth even more than that?
Keith Law: He’s worth more. And it all seems very real.

PHS: If you’re Ross Atkins, do you attempt to trade Donaldson now for any kind of prospect return, or is it better to hold on to him and see what happens this winter? My meaning there is, should they consider a one-year offer at roughly the same salary as this year (as a rotating 3B/1B/DH?
Keith Law: You offer him, and if you don’t like the return, you wait till November and make the QO. There is no reason to hold on to him now if you get a decent offer.

Chris: You may have seen that Bon Appetit just named (the OG) Portland as food city of the year. You may need to come up, even though we are, as you said, above the arctic circle. (it is 86 here rn btw)
Keith Law: I haven’t been there in ages, too, but there’s not a great work reason when the Sea Dogs come near me so often (and they’re light on prospects right now).

Aaron: Seems there are very differing opinions on the strength of the jays farm system. Im surprised to see them ranked top 5 in a couple of rankings. Seems they are top heavy but once bichette and Vlad are promoted they likely are a bottom third system. Thoughts?
Keith Law: They’re not a top five system. That just isn’t credible.

Joe: Has your evaluation of Tyler O’Neill changed after his AAA performance this year?
Keith Law: No.

cm: I know you likely aren’t sure who will be #1 overall next year, but is this an up year (Harper type), down year (Beckham type), or in between year for the #1 overall pick?
Keith Law: Very down year.

brian: Didi Gregorius can’t hit a pitch on the outside part of the plate. Also swings at everything. EVERYTHING. You can get him out by pitching up and away and down and away. He had a great April – then every single pitcher saw the same thing and he hasn’t hit much since. Can the Yankee announcers stop referring to this as a “slump?” It;s not a slump. And Boone batting him 3rd or 4th everyday is just plain pandering to the left/right crowd.
Keith Law: Since May 1st: .246/.297/.397. I didn’t realize his OBP was that bad; he’s still walking a bit so I thought he was at least providing more value there. That’s bottom of the order shit right there.

BMosc: Clarke Schmidt. Projection?
Keith Law: I missed him by a day in Aberdeen; in college, I thought he was a huge injury risk because of the delivery, good to great stuff, real competitor, could throw strikes but would have trouble with command too. He blew out, not helped by misuse at SC, but as far as I know the delivery is the same.

Chris: over/under MLB Justin Dunn starts in 2019: 15 (im taking over w that tenuous mets staff)
Keith Law: I think/hope the over.

Bryce Harper: What do you think I get in free agency this year?
Keith Law: If you finish strongly, the way you’ve hit the last five weeks, you’ll still get a huge deal, some 8-year $200MM+ contract, but I think Machado is going to be the king of this market.

Joseph: Could you compare and contrast Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint?
Keith Law: Very different guys. The only things they have in common is that they’re RH and both pitch for Atlanta. I like both with Touki having the higher ceiling.

E J : Chance that Luis Patino makes your post/pre season top 100 ? How are his off speed pitches developing ?
Keith Law: Slim.

Mike: I know you had Jose Ramirez just outside of your top 100, but he wasnt too highly rated as a prospect by many. Why did so many overlook him?
Keith Law: Little guy who never showed anything remotely close to this kind of power potential.

Brett: Royals owner David Glass has been quoted recently indicating he believes Royals should be contending again by 2020. Was this a comment directed at the GM to avoid a long rebuild or an indication of a lack of awareness of the status of the organization and their talent?
Keith Law: I mean, that’s not going to happen. I can’t tell you what Glass had in mind.

Thom Yorke: When you say “backed up” do you mean regression? In terms of a prospect’s stuff being backed up.
Keith Law: Yes, that’s what the term means.

Ben: Spice Island closed, unfortunately. But try BRGR, Spoon, or Morcilla!
Keith Law: well that sucks. Just shut the city down, then.

Aaron C.: Have you heard what, if any, MLB award vote you’ll have this year? Continuing the rich tradition of NL ROY?
Keith Law: I can only assume so. I don’t necessarily mind, since prospects is my thing, but I also wonder what’s motivating the pigeonholing.

Chris (Chicago): Keith, Mike Bates put out an interesting article the other day about the history of ticket prices in MLB and their potential effect on attendance today. The conclusion was that while baseball is in no sort of financial danger, there is a long-term consequence to the high-cost of tickets (including failing to create new fans). I was just curious about your thoughts on pricing? Is it something about which the league should be concerned enough to do something?
Keith Law: I think MLB teams price tickets rationally, to maximize revenues in the short term. If the league thinks as Mike does, that this hurts the game long term, then they might want to figure out how to subsidize lower-cost tickets in the bleachers or nosebleeds.

Brian: Deivi Grullon was once a prospect. He’s having a big AA year and the splits are fairly even. Is he on the prospect radar at all?
Keith Law: No, he’s terrible. He can really throw, but that’s about it.

Trey: Why the hell does Trump go after LeBron? I actually agree with some of his policies but why oh why does he do the dumbest shit and go after the most popular athlete in the US who is actually very impactful to his community?
Keith Law: I mean … you’re so close, Trey … it’s just … just reach a little bit father…

squeeze bunt: Do you have a way to measure quality of contact of someone in the Arizona league? For example, Xavier Edwards is hitting like 400, but is he legging out infield singles, or hitting solid line drives?
Keith Law: The teams may have some trackman data on that but otherwise you’d want to ask the scouts or coaches at those games. I won’t do any of that till the fall, when the season is over.

Sally: Is Juan Soto better than you imagined? MVP type ceiling?
Keith Law: Of course he is – if I’d imagined he’d do this, he would have been in my top 3 prospects this winter. MVP type ceiling.

Henry: Red Sox have Sale, Bogaerts, Martinez, Porcello, Kimbrel, Betts all becoming free agents in the next 2 seasons. It’s unlikely they sign them all. What do you think they do? Or should do?
Keith Law: You try to sign Betts and Bogaerts, the two youngest and the two position players on the list.

Todd: Thoughts on Yankees Luis Medina, Garrett Whitlock and Devi Garcia?”
Keith Law: Medina has enormous stuff (one scout told me he saw 100 mph, another saw him get knocked around and unable to finish one inning).
Keith Law: He’s got the highest ceiling of those three, but he’s also quite far away. I’ll try to see Whitlock soon but he was an SEC product overmatching younger A-ball hitters. His first AA start (in April) was a disaster.

Rob: Will you be doing a GenCon write-up? What was your favorite new game?
Keith Law: Yes it should go up today or tomorrow at Paste. No spoilers.

Ben: Between Willi Castro & Sergio Alcantra, do the Tigers have an everyday regular shortstop there? I think Wenceel Perez has the most upside, but is a ways off from the bigs.
Keith Law: I’m a big Castro fan. One of him or Alcantara should be a regular there.

Richard: Can Ryan Borucki stick as a back end starter?
Keith Law: Yes.

E J : Is Quantrill struggling due to the lack of development with the breaking ball, the straightness of the fastball, all of the above ? Anything else ?
Keith Law: FB velocity hasn’t held up post-2016, and he doesn’t really get on top of the ball well enough or extend over his front side like he should..

Fred: Nobody can honestly back Urban Meyer at Ohio State, right? I mean how the hell could they value wins more than domestic violence victims? I’ve actually had people tell me that Urban is the victim in the whole thing… WHY? HOW?
Keith Law: Because football. I’ve got people in the queue here trying to argue that he did the right thing (just like Paterno truthers).

Dawg: David Bote, Phillip Ervin and Jeff McNeil all are hitting pretty well in small samples. Any hope that they can become solid regulars?
Keith Law: Bote has the best bat of the three.

Danny: Have you heard anything on Shervyn Newton? Apparently that Kingsport team is stacked
Keith Law: Yep, Dutch kid, signed for just $50K two years ago. Trained in Curacao. Great feel for the game, so I’m not shocked at the plate discipline, but he’s really hitting with some impact. That Kingsport team would be really fun to watch if I could figure out where Kingsport is.

addoeh: Regarding Werth, what FO person told him not to bunt against the shift? Don’t do it all the time but once in a while in the right situations would help.
Keith Law: Right? Wouldn’t any analytics people recommend doing that, if only as a game theory sort of response to the shift?

Gus Johnson: Is there a disconnect in the value of relievers? Good ones command a premium in the trade market but are don’t seem to be as valued in the FA market.
Keith Law: Those trades tend to be in-season and thus tactical moves for September/October.

Chris: Speaking of Wander Franco, can we get a definitive ranking of the Wander Francos?
Keith Law: Well the one in Tampa is a superstar and the others are not.

SeanE: Hi Keith. Not sure you and I would ever agree much in the political arena but just wanted to say I very much enjoy reading all your material, baseball and non baseball, alike. Do you agree however, that the rhetoric from both sides has gotten totally out of hand? What has happened to the days when politicians like Reagan and Tip O’Neill could sit down at the end of the day with a drink despite going to battle over policy issues.
Keith Law: I don’t agree. I think the current administration and the establishment wing of the GOP has adopted so many policies endemic to despotic regimes – the stuff Hannah Arendt documented in The Origins of Totalitarianism – that no rhetoric can condemn them strongly enough. Bothsidesism only makes the problem worse.

Trevor: Ankiel throwing 89 in an exhibition game. Do you take his comeback at 39 seriously? Could he get a ST invite or a minor league contract next year?
Keith Law: I’m absolutely rooting for him.

Keith: With no offense to my second cousin, I tell people I’m named after you. Who are you named for?
Keith Law: Nobody that I’m aware of, although my middle name is from my mother’s father, who died before I was born.

Brett: Not defending the level of defense spending, but maybe the reason for the lack of border disputes is correlated to how much we invest in our defense?
Keith Law: We have two borders and both are with countries with whom we have extensive, inextricable economic links. That might have more to do with it than anything else.

Joe: Hey Keith, thanks again for the chat. Can you settle a question for me? If you had to start a franchise and could pick between Severino or Nola as being your Ace, who would it be?
Keith Law: I feel better about Nola long-term, even though Severino is the better pitcher today (the last six starts notwithstanding).

Xavier: Any shot Vientos or Kelenic starts next season in full-season ball? What do you think of those guys?
Keith Law: I like both and think both start in Columbia.

JP: I LOL’ed at a guy who called you a “virtue signaller” on Twitter last weekend. Funny how that term has developed into a put-down used to “burn” anyone who expresses an interest in equality. At this point, you’re telling on yourself by even using that term aren’t you?
Keith Law: That’s my take. I don’t care if anyone thinks I have or lack “virtue.” I do care about using my platform to do an ounce of fucking good in this world before I lose it.

Matt: Moncada is on track to break the single season K record. Do you think he still lives up to his All-Star potental?
Keith Law: I have been the relative skeptic on him – still ranking him in the top 20, but never buying him as the #1 prospect or even a top ten guy. His swing and miss issues are real and were always predictable. He has enormous athleticism and upside, but I couldn’t predict he would get to it. I would still bet on him having a long career as a regular who is very up and down year to year.

E J : With 2 AZL teams, are there any emerging prospects or deep sleepers for the Padres generating interest among scouts that might have 50 FV?
Keith Law: No, it’s a lot of filler to make sure the prospects have guys to play with.

Chris: My one goal this summer has been to make a peach pie (I aim high to be sure). I’m a fairly decent cook, but have never baked anything in my life. I’m armed with an America’s Test Kitchen/Cook’s Country book. Should I try the crust recipe (which seems terribly complicated, particularly to someone like me who has never made a crust before) or just buy pre-made? If the latter, how much will it affect the taste/consistency of the pie?
Keith Law: Stella Parks’ pie crust recipe is the easiest reliable recipe I know. Very easy, doesn’t require any fancy techniques.
Keith Law: It’s on seriouseats.

Buddy the Elf: What’s your favorite color?
Keith Law: Living Colour.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: In your opinion, is an animals life less valuable than a human life? I ask because I know your stance on veganism, and you’re a rational man, but I think you don’t give a strong enough stance on factory farming. If you give equal weight to all sentient beings, isn’t our actions towards animals one of our gravest moral ills?
Keith Law: I don’t give equal weight to all sentient beings. An animal’s life is not equivalent to a human life. Our cat just died a few weeks ago of cancer. We did not operate or try expensive treatments. We were extremely sad to lose him, but the grief afterwards has not been close to the grief we faced when beloved human family members or friends have passed away. So I don’t really know where you’re coming from – and if you think I haven’t railed against factory farming, you haven’t been reading.

Carlo: What do you think of xwOBA? Do you think we’ll end up seeing certain players who consistently out perform or underperform their xwOBA — kind of like with FIP?
Keith Law: Someone – Russell Carleton, I think? – wrote a piece showing that these x-stats don’t predict future performance well enough for us to use them.

Steve: There is no active place to leave comments for the chat. Where am I supposed to ask my questions?
Keith Law: Um … right here?

(I’m pretty sure Steve was joking.)

Jeff: Did you ever think Scooter Gennett was capable of putting up 2 seasons like he has recently? I’d be shopping the shit out of him this winter.
Keith Law: I did not, and I can’t shake the sense that a lot of this is ballpark-fueled. I would shop him too. His value isn’t likely to ever be higher, and they have bats in the system.

Joshua: Hi Keith, with the Nats still hovering around .500, and still 6 games back, should they start selling now? Seems to me that Murphy, Gio, and Madson should be able to get back something “meaningful” in return. Thanks.
Keith Law: Too late for that. Besides, I think they should be going for it.

mike honcho: who are some names you are expecting to see in the AFL this year?
Keith Law: I am hoping we get Tatis Jr., Vlad Jr., Robles (if not on the playoff roster), F. Whitley (ditto), maybe G. Whitley?

Russ: Thanks for the chats. We have a son who is going to be a HS freshman this year. What is more important in the summer: large national tournaments or playing on the best team………or some combination of both.
Keith Law: Playing, having fun, not playing too much, and if he’s a pitcher not throwing too much.

Dallas: I’ve been watching old Top Chef seasons (the first season I saw was the 1st All-Star season) and realized the show peaked in Las Vegas with the Voltaggio brothers, Kevin Hubbard, and Jen Carroll. They’ve never had a group of chefs like that season and probably have no chance to ever get that much quality again. I understand now why you’ve given up on the show but at the same time wish you would come back.
Keith Law: That was definitely the best season, although the All-Star season where Blais won was pretty great too.

Michael: The cooking show completely misunderstands why hunger exists. It’s the economic system that keeps people in poverty and hungry, not a lack of food. And the amount of food used on all cooking shows combined is still a pittance.
Keith Law: I agree, although food waste is pretty terrible too. Colicchio tweets about it often, so I am hard-pressed to think Top Chef is just composting all that stuff.

Angelo: When a guy like Oscar Mercado has “average at best speed” but consistently steals 30+ bases in the minors, how does that usually translate at the major league level? Do you think he can steal 20+ bases as a regular with what his speed is?
Keith Law: It may indicate that he’s particularly skilled at stealing – at reading pitchers, picking his spots, etc.

Bort: Is it time for the Astros to move McCullers to the pen permanently?
Keith Law: I think so.

Adam: I know you have been skeptical on Newcomb at times due to his walk rate. It seems he has progressed further and further. Are you buying now?
Keith Law: No.

AJ: Do you regret asserting that it was “absolutely racist” to include the 6 HOF members of the 90s Braves (who happen to be white) in a roundtable interview? It’s wrong, clearly, as being in the HOF and being in Cooperstown last week were prereqs for the interview. But it is also unhelpful for the cause of racial justice that you (and me and many others) promote. It undermines legitimate claims of the racism you thought you were seeing.
Keith Law: The obstinacy is stunning. The “prereqs” themselves were the problem. Those guidelines were not handed down by God or encoded in the laws of the universe. Someone chose criteria that excluded all players of color. They could just as easily have chosen other criteria that put at least one person of color in that room – but they didn’t. That is a failure of representation. And your comment is a failure of critical thinking.
Keith Law: I’m out, there’s only so much dumb I can take in one sitting. Plus my car needs its annual oil change. Thanks for all the questions and for reading, as usual. I should be on a regular Thursday chat schedule this month unless there’s a day game I need to hit. Look for my Gen Con wrapup soon over at Paste.

I had a slew of Insider posts around the trade deadline, including:

• the Kevin Gausman trade
• the Chris Archer trade
• the Tommy Pham trade
• the Roberto Osuna trade
• the Jonathan Schoop trade
• some smaller prospect deals from Tuesday

I’ll be at Gen Con 2018 in Indianapolis from tomorrow through Sunday, including a scheduled book signing on Friday at noon. If you can’t get me there, feel free to reach out and I’ll make sure I find you during the con.

Keith Law: Throw away your calendar. It’s Klawchat.

Dr. Bob: Tommy Pham was my favorite STL player. Played hard. Spoke his mind. Made no excuses when things weren’t going well. Cards wanted Archer. I don’t understand why they wouldn’t pay the price of a couple of prospects along with Pham and signing money to get him. Totally baffled.
Keith Law: I understand moving Pham to make room for Bader and perhaps O’Neill (Mercado, whom I mentioned in the Pham write-up, was later traded to Cleveland). I don’t quite get moving Pham but not addressing another need on the major-league roster. And Pham was so popular and active in the community, in addition to just being a good player, that it feels like a larger loss for the team to move him and not replace him with someone just as good.

Brendan: Through the years, have any of the minor league players you write about in your columns ever reach out to discuss your evaluations of them?
Keith Law: Very rarely. One was upset I said he projected as a fourth outfielder. It turned out he didn’t even become that in the end. I’m happy to discuss my evaluation with a player, as long as it’s offline. There’s no upside to having that discussion in public.

CT Pilgrim: The Nats stood pat yesterday. Does that make any sense? Either improve the team for the 2018 run, or move some lesser pieces (Murphy, Gio, etc) for 2019.
Keith Law: If the Nats believe they can catch one or both teams ahead of them this season with the roster they have – I do – then it made sense.

Brian: The Yankees signed a cluster of IFA’s who received significantly less than the other IFA’s ranked near them. Is this just the Yankees IFA machine at work, or could another IFA package deal situation (similar to the Red Sox a couple years back) be in the works?
Keith Law: My reaction was that they locked up these kids a while ago, and their perceived values have gone up since then. Remember that for most July 2nd IFAs (non-Cuban), teams and agents strike oral agreements when the kids are 14 or even younger.

Miles from somewhere: I suggested this on Twitter, but I really dug “Sorry to Bother You” and think it’s worth an add to your list. Thanks all the writing, baseball and otherwise.
Keith Law: It’s on the list. August and September are much better for getting to the movies than July is.

David: How long would it typically take to alter a starters routine to convert them to the bullpen (thinking about Touki in September) and do you think this sort of late season change could be detrimental to a pitchers development or even heighten injury risk?
Keith Law: I don’t think it takes any time to alter the routine in that direction, but I wouldn’t use Touki or any full-time starter as a one-inning, two or three days in a row reliever.

JR: As a Mets fan (TIA for your sympathies), I’m happy they didn’t trade any of their key guys yesterday because 1) the return they got for Familia was so light I was worried they would get fleeced and 2) they have a 3 headed GM right now. Would rather wait until offseason when one GM is calling the shots to trade key guys.
Keith Law: I 100% agree with point 2. They have to let the new GM shop deGrom, Thor, or whoever else.

Bob: On a scale of one to ten how excited should people be about the rays wander Franco
Keith Law: He was in my top 20 as a 17-year-old in the Appy League. That’s pretty rare territory.

Amy: When teams trade international bonus $, does $ actually change hands or does the receiving end just have permission to spend more?
Keith Law: It’s permission to spend more. It’s like trading a draft pick – you don’t get the slot money associated with the pick, but you get the right to take another player, and your total bonus pool increases.

Robbie: Any thoughts on the pitchers the angels received in their two deadline deals?
Keith Law: The Boston guys are probably middle relievers at best. Sandoval is a spin-rate guy, probably a reliever too.

john: what did you think about the return for Leonys Martin in Willi Castro?
Keith Law: On top of this post, I have links to all of my trade writeups from this week, and that trade – I like Castro and explain why – is in the ‘other prospect deals’ post.

Mike: Hey Keith, I’m an Atlanta fan has barely seen Gausman throw. I remember the hype and breakout potential you and others have talked about. What do you think he has to change to reach the potential?
Keith Law: A consistent spot on the rubber (and thus delivery), and a better/more consistent slider. The first is easy, the second isn’t.

Kraig: Despite of adult age the whole time Gen Con has been in Indy I’m going for the first time this year. No real plans, just exploring but any tips/advice/suggestions on navigating around?
Keith Law: It’s pretty huge and thus overwhelming. If you just want to explore, the main show floor has booths of just about every major publisher where you can see demos or protoypes of new/upcoming games. There’s also a huge open gaming room next door, with some scheduled events/tournaments, and some places you can just find a game to join.

JD: Is the Chris Archer deal about this year or the coming years? Seems like a big haul to give up to just finish less out of the playoffs than they otherwise would have.
Keith Law: I thought both that and the Kela deal were more about 2019-20.

Ryan: Do 10-5 rights apply to trade waivers? What’s to stop Baltimore from letting Jones go to Philly via waivers and then a trade in the offseason where the prospects end up in BAL anyway for someone who would’ve been non-tendered?
Keith Law: This has been a debate with the union for as long as I have been in the business. I think they do apply – Jones could reject the assignment and/or file a grievance.

Pat: How many more boxes does Eloy have to check? Is this a service time game Rick Hahn is playing?
Keith Law: What service time game? If he’s not calling Jimenez up now, he’d have to wait until mid-April next year. That’s a long time to stall a guy’s development just to get an extra year of control at some point after the world ends.

Jeff: With everything that has happened this season in Washington, does Rizzo return in 2019?
Keith Law: I can’t see why not.

Bubbles: Good afternoon! I have a question about two players but what I’m asking is a broad question. Barring some injury, do you believe Nick Senzel and Luis Urias will both get 500+ PA in the MLB next season?
Keith Law: Senzel is already injured, so I have no idea what his outlook is for next year. Urias will.

kyle: There are a lot of Twitter and chat room tough guys, but has anyone ever come up to you at a book signing to tell you to stick to baseball?
Keith Law: Never. But many, many people at every signing thank me for *not* sticking to baseball.

john: I don’t have a question but I just want to say how disgusted I am with the Astros. This whole Osuna thing is gross and I know I shouldn’t be surprised but I guess I wanted to believe my favorite team wasn’t this shitty. I don’t know if Luhnow really thinks we’re all idiots but his attempts to justify it are ridiculous and insulting and the whole thing honestly makes me want to not watch them anymore this year.
Keith Law: I’m most bothered by the trade. I’m also bothered by the disingenuousness that accompanied it. Just fucking own it. “Yep, we traded for a guy who (very likely) assaulted a woman, because we think he’ll help us win another World Series.”

Dougie: The most likely outcome for Mitch Keller is what? Mid-rotation? Would you bet on more or less?
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s a likely outcome. He’s either better than that, or he’s in the pen because he never develops a third pitch.

Jeremy: What do you think of the Rangers adding almost exclusively pitching prospects in the draft and via trades? I know they’re a organization that has struggled developing pitching. They’re trying get as many spins at the roulette table they can in developing one, but does it seem too narrow-sighted?
Keith Law: Seems like it was a real organizational weakness coming into the year, so I’m not troubled by it.

Anon: A few weeks ago I attended a family wedding of a distant cousin that was about an hour and a half away. Once the processional started, I noticed the groom and all the groomsmen had boots emblazoned with the Confederate Flag. I was really bothered by this and even contemplated leaving, but because of circumstances decided against it, and just didn’t look down the rest of the ceremony or reception. It wasn’t until during the reception that we noticed they were also all carrying sidearms throughout the ceremony and reception. What would you have done in this situation?
Keith Law: I would have left. You don’t have to make a scene, or even tell anyone. I just would have walked out.

Alan: Blake Swihart suddenly is looking good defensively and hitting. Think Sox should continue to start him over Vazquez when he returns from injury?
Keith Law: Yes. Always been a Swihart fan, until this run of injuries put his career in doubt.

Greg: Do you think that the emergence of Gregory Polanco made Huntington comfortable with going all-in on this Pirates’ group? Aside from his horrid defense, he’s been hitting at a star-caliber level since June.
Keith Law: I’ve been fooled by Polanco before, but in general I’m a believer – I think I still talked him up in a chat here in May? – and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if that was part of NH’s thinking, especially that they could afford to move Meadows because Polanco might finally be becoming a star.

Kent: Huntington added Kela and Archer without surrendering Keller or Hayes. Huge win?
Keith Law: Solid deadline.

Andy: I’d like to get ahead of this. I was a dumb, teenage boy. I truly regret what I did, and I am in no way that person anymore. I purchased multiple Limp Bizkit albums.
Keith Law: I’m not sure you’re sufficiently penitent for your sins here.

Deke: You’ve mentioned how baseball is “work,” and in your off time you like to get away from work. Now that you’re doing board-game reviews, do you consider that more “work” than play? Are they less enjoyable now in general?
Keith Law: Aside from rare exceptions where I play a game for review purposes, but end up disliking it, no. It’s still fun, and the responsibilities are really light anyway.

Matt: Don’t think I saw a write-up of the Soria trade anywhere (please correct me if I’m wrong), was Medeiros a good return for the Sox?
Keith Law: That was in another wrap up piece. Medeiros is probably a lefty specialist.

Washington Nationals: Keith, any explanation for what the Nationals did by trading Kintzler to the Cubs, holding onto Harper, then DFA’ing Kelly? Is bringing up Suero really worth trading Kintzler, especially when the club is floundering around the .500 mark?
Keith Law: Supposedly they traded Kintzler for talking to a reporter about the clubhouse dynamic. I have no additional insight on that. Kelley more than earned his DFA, though.

Lucas: I had heard from a source internally that one of the reasons Pittsburgh felt okay in dealing Meadows is because they’re very happy about the progress Jason Martin has made this year. “While he doesn’t have Meadows upside, we felt the distance between the two combined with our current OF situation made Meadows expendable. Thoughts on Jason Martin?
Keith Law: Extra OF.

Dave: Who was the best prospect traded at the deadline?
Keith Law: Mejia.

JP: Biggest non-trade surprise? Harvey?
Keith Law: Not just a surprise, but nonsensical. The Reds absolutely should have traded him.
Keith Law: They can’t trade Swaggerty until October, and he can’t be a PTBNL (nor can any player they just drafted). So it’s not him.

Justin: Do Jordan Luplow, Jason Martin, or Bryan Reynolds strike you as particularly interesting these days? I’m curious if i can slap a “Pirates LF of the future” label on any of them now that Meadows isn’t in the picture.
Keith Law: Always been a Reynolds fan. Still not sure where the power is – but I’ve noted before that the Pirates in general don’t seem to develop power hitters, or more specifically, they don’t seem to get power from their guys who have some raw but don’t show it in games.

Ryan: Conforto, Rosario & to a lesser extent Dom Smith haven’t done much this year. Smith is SSS but has your opinion changed on Conforto or Rosario for their future?
Keith Law: No, esp with Conforto clearly not 100% physically. I hate how they’ve handled Smith. Rosario is just young.

Alex: What kind of upside does Luis Garcia have. Seems to be holding his own as 18 year old in high A.
Keith Law: Physically underdeveloped but more than everyday upside. Has blown past Antuna.

Brendan: Bellinger: has the league figured him out, or is this what he is with last year an aberration?
Keith Law: He turned 23 two weeks ago.
Keith Law: Like, guys come up, do well, struggle, make adjustments, rinse, repeat. If he’s 27 and still struggling, different story. A lot of hitters his age are still in the minors.

Matt: As a Tampa native I’m slightly biased, but what areas across the country do you find to have the best collection of amateur baseball talent?
Keith Law: Southern California is by far the strongest. Central Florida and Georgia are probably next. I think Texas is overrated for strength of talent – it’s dispersed over such a wide area and large population that it doesn’t match those other states.

AGirlHasNoName: Can you explain what to make of the Brewers infield going forward? None of Moustakas, Shaw or Schoop are shortstops, right?
Keith Law: Correct. I don’t know why Brewers fans were telling me Schoop will take over at shortstop. He was a shortstop and he was not good.

Orion: Can Harrison Bader be (or is he already) an above average regular in the Cardinals OF? Seems like one of those guys who has no eye popping tools but is average in everything, which makes for an above average total package.
Keith Law: Yes, fourth OF floor, everyday regular most likely, above average/non-star ceiling. And I think he’s ready.

ben: How do you personally maintain hope in today’s world?
Keith Law: There are many, many kind people in the world, doing kind things for others, in your life and in the broader world around us. I focus on that and try to be that way in my personal life too.

Rich: Really love my Anova…just have the Bluetooth. Should I have gotten the WiFi version? May have to gift mine. Seems like a smart idea to start the water an hour before I get home…what says you?
Keith Law: I have the bluetooth. Never needed the Wifi function myself.
Keith Law: Of course, I work at home. I get to do more things in the kitchen.

SeanE: Neal Huntington said the PTBNL in the Archer deal is a player of “significance”. Why would they wait to announce this 3rd piece?
Keith Law: Could be that the player in question is on the DL. Could be that the two sides haven’t settled on the player and have only agreed it will be 1 of N players on a list, although I don’t believe that is the case here. Not sure what other reasons there might be.

Shroud: Orioles fans are mad over not receiving multiple top 100 guys for their superstar pitcher…Kevin Gausman. They’re new to this “rebuilding” thing, huh
Keith Law: The O’s also dumped O’Day’s salary, which reduced the return in prospects.

Nick: Most underrated deal of the deadline?
Keith Law: That Cardinals-Cleveland prospect swap. No one cared because there were no major leaguers. You can just inject those trades right into my veins, though.

Seath: have you watched any of the Facebook exclusive games yet? What do you think of them? Do you think this is eventually where the game is/should head?
Keith Law: I have not. I don’t need fan commentary on the game … or any commentary, really. I’m just here for the baseball.

Dan: Kohl Stewart has put together some nice starts recently. Can he still become a viable starter?
Keith Law: He hasn’t, though. Still throws strikes with no out pitch.

Nolan: What’s your most memorable case of a fan base really sticking it to you for not thinking their fringe prospect was a future star? Junior Lake stands out to me, for some reason.
Keith Law: That was one. Lot from Cubs fans on Brett Jackson, too. Jays fans with Rowdy Tellez.

Matt: How much have Alec Hansen’s recent struggles impacted your projection of him?
Keith Law: Dude wasn’t healthy most of the year. It would be absurd to ignore that and just judge him on his performance without that context.

James: Do you see the O’s being the winners of the Victor Victor Mesa sweepstakes once he’s eligible? What can you tell us about him?
Keith Law: I know reports that they had a deal with him have been debunked. I’ll write something up when he signs.

Garrett: Were you surprised by Adell’s promotion to AA? His BB and K numbers aren’t too good.
Keith Law: I thought it was too quick from a performance level, not just from BB and K, but he wasn’t producing that well the last few weeks (actually his BB and K rates were up in July, everything else was down). But maybe they wanted to get him to a specific coach? Or away from certain parks? There can be non-obvious reasons for promotions with exceptional talents like Adell.

Drew: You saw Logan Davidson? Would love to hear your thoughts. Saw him this summer and didn’t see the hype myself
Keith Law: He looked bad, and so did just about all of the other top Cape hitters I saw last week, other than Bleday from Vanderbilt. The Cape talent in general was kind of awful.

John : 2014 ALCS contestants KC and Baltimore are now locked at the bottom of the league standings. Who do you believe reaches post season first
Keith Law: Orioles have done a lot more to turn the roster over. Royals’ system is well behind that, even with the big college pitching draft (which I as a regular attendee of Blue Rocks games greatly appreciate).

Chris: Given Harper’s relative struggles this season, what kind of contract would you offer him this offseason? Potential good buy low (if buy low is still $200M+)?
Keith Law: If he doesn’t finish strongly, look for Boras to try to do a Beltre/Boston pillow contract for him.

Rob: Padres MLB club starts seeing results in… 2020? Seems like 3-4 players called up early in the year 2019. Gore/Tatis/Baez in 2020?
Keith Law: If Tatis is okay post-injury – maybe Fall League? Please? can we get him and Vlad Jr? – then he’ll be up next year. Baez could be later in the year. Gore might be 2021, depending on how they build up his workload.

Nick: I know you were a fan of Mark Vientos coming into the draft last year. He is having a solid year so far in the Appy League. What type of player do you see him developing into? Is he a solid defender at 3B?
Keith Law: Small sample so far but I’m thrilled to see him showing some power too. Solid defender at third trending up. Very promising. I’ve said before but I think some of the results bear it out – their drafts are not the problem, and recently they’ve been quite good. Dunn has broken out. Peterson had a little dead arm deal but has been very good most of the season. Vientos looks great. I’m way in on Kelenic. Alonso is something. And from the international side Ronny Mauricio is getting a lot of buzz as a potential star. I know #lolmets is a thing because of the ownership situation but the outlook from their farm system is not bleak.

Brian: Hi Keith thanks for all your work! Only reason I’m an insider sub.. What is the rationale for MLB not allowing the trading of draft picks? The other major sports allow it.
Keith Law: In the 1980s MLB feared small-market teams would just sell/trade the picks rather than pay the exorbitant demands of drafted players who were looking for bonuses of … (checks notes) … $100,000.

Rick: Trea Turner seems to have made a heartfelt, tearful apology as well as vowing to work for organizations to go against bullying and such. Ready to forgive him?
Keith Law: His was the best apology yet from any of these players.

Nick Howard: What is my deal exactly? am I a non prospect, or still a chance?
Keith Law: Got the yips, not a prospect any more.

Steve: Could you explain why the international money that the O’s received as part of the Gausman trade was not part of your analysis? And what is T25 in regards to your Schoop tweet yesterday?
Keith Law: They didn’t receive international money; they received slots, described above. And that’s all that is – a slot, the right to spend money, not an actual player. How would you like me to evaluate that?
Keith Law: If you don’t know what T25 is, you might be pronouncing Schoop’s name incorrectly.

Chan: The Marlins decided to hold onto their three relievers who had trade value. Are you surprised? Should they have lowered their demand to retrieve at least something?
Keith Law: Unless the market was so saturated with similar relievers that they got garbage offers? I thought Yates would be next out of San Diego, but I don’t think they got any decent offers.

The Boxes Are Checked: Gut feeling- do Jimenez and/or Kopech debut in MLB this season?
Keith Law: Kopech in particular needs to come up this season. Let him face major league hitters and see if they force him to throw more strikes. He’s just going to blow AAA guys away the longer he’s down there.

Dave: Does the player to be named later in the PIT-TB deal most likely mean he was a 2018 draft pick and not been w/ PIT long enough to be traded yet?
Keith Law: Again, that’s prohibited.

Kevin: Apparently Tampa wouldn’t trade Archer to San Diego unless they got Paddack or Patiño. Is it safe to say Patiño has passed up guys like Baez and Quantrill in the Padres system? What’s Patiño’s ceiling?
Keith Law: Patiño has not passed Baez or Morejon or Lawson. He’s still got a lot of reliever risk too. Quantrill has regressed since that first summer.

Brian: It was great to meet you in Acton on Saturday. Thanks for coming out and answering questions. You discussed gausman and the orioles messing with his mound placement/delivery. Do you think ATL has the specific people in place to help gausman or is it more of any team has a better chance to help him than where he’s coming from?
Keith Law: Yes, I’ve thought Gausman would be a perfect change of scenery candidate for a while. Even getting to a new coaching staff without the baggage he’s had might help.

Dr. Bob: If I understand the rules correctly, the Reds will not get a compensating pick for Harvey when he leaves at the end of the season (he is a FA, right?). If that’s true, why in the world do they not trade him? They sent players to NY to get him so that he can help them finish this season not as far in fifth place as they otherwise might have been?
Keith Law: Right. I don’t understand not trading him.

SeanE: Couldn’t the Reds just move Harvey in August? His velo has ticked up significantly recently. If he has a few dominant starts could he maybe fetch more?
Keith Law: He can be claimed on waivers and then the Reds have no leverage in negotiations.

Mat: If you had to rank Edmonds, A. Jones, Lofton and Bernie Williams in a pecking order for the Veterans Committee (even though Andruw isn’t on it…yet), how would you rank.
Keith Law: Edmonds, Andruw, Lofton, Bernie, in that order. Edmonds would have made my ballot had I been a voter at the time.

Tony! Toni! Toné!: Just following up on my Swaggerty/PTBNL question. I know you technically can’t trade players in his situation, but isn’t that what a PTBNL is often used for? For involving guys in deals who can’t be officially traded yet.
Keith Law: You literally cannot trade a drafted player, even as a PTBNL, until after the World Series in his draft year. It’s colloquially called the Trea Turner rule.

John: So you’re saying you’d rather have Eloy in the majors for the rest of this season and next April instead of having him for the 2025 season? Why?
Keith Law: 2025? Where will you be then? What kind of team will the White Sox be at that point? Who’s the GM? The owner? Meanwhile, if you have a player whose development appears to require a promotion to the majors, you’re merely wasting time if you leave that guy in the minors. (I feel more strongly this way with pitchers, since projecting any pitcher to stay healthy for seven years is like playing roulette with a crooked croupier.)

Matt: Without looking at your book lists, have you read the Three Body Problem trilogy? I’ve never gotten into sci-fi, but the books are incredible, especially the scale of subject matter that it tackles and the big-picture issues it tackles. If you have read these, do you have any similar recommendations?
Keith Law: The first one. Very good, despite the weird unfolding-of-the-proton ending. But it didn’t compel me to continue either.

Matt: Did you read that article about hackers were able to hack voting booths in less than 2 hours? This seems…problematic.
Keith Law: I did. It is. Especially since there’s a foreign government that has a demonstrated interest in messing with our elections, and our own Administration thinks it’s just so darn cute.

Rich: Even though their talent is awful on the ML team, would you hang on to Andy Green, or should the Padres look for someone else to mentor the youth that will be coming up?
Keith Law: I like Green. He’s not part of the problem and I think when the roster improves and gets younger he’ll be part of the solution.

Anthony: Re. Keller: would you ever be comfortable projecting a fastball-curveball guy as a starter (even if changeup never comes) because curves tend to be platoon-neutral?
Keith Law: Fastball-breaking ball guys do not tend to be platoon-neutral.

JR: Why do teams with good records/teams that exceed expectations always tend to have good chemistry (per the media), while teams that disappoint/don’t play up to talent level have bad chemistry (also per the media)?
Keith Law: Because cognitive biases are everywhere.

Rex: Some people consistently beat the market. Just because you can’t do something doesn’t mean other people can’t.
Keith Law: The people who ‘beat the market’ in the last N years almost never beat the market again in the next N years. Maybe never.

Donald: Hey Keith, thanks for doing these chats. Last week, you said “xwOBA doesn’t work”, I’m not trying to argue it does and you are wrong, but I was just curious if you could elaborate on that a little more and explain why it doesn’t work.
Keith Law: I can’t find the link but someone – Russell Carleton, I think – showed that they don’t actually predict future wOBA (or whatever the stat is in the x-stat).

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Saw something yesterday how TB pitching coach Kyle Snyder, being a large, ex-pitcher himself at 6’8″, is a “savant at helping pitchers understand and control their bodies” and could be a huge help to Glasnow and helping him to learn how to better control his levers. Think that’s noteworthy at all?
Keith Law: I think it’s a delightful idea without proof or even evidence.

Aaron: Allard looked pretty crafty last night, even if the results weren’t great. Should I be worried about him missing enough bats?
Keith Law: Yes, if you want more than a 4th/5th starter. Averaged ~89, didn’t throw his CB as much as I expected.

Yuan: Just read your take on Tyler Austin being moved – do you think he still has a chance to redeem himself or is the inability to hit offspeed too much to overcome?
Keith Law: He hasn’t shown any adjustments to the slider yet. If he does, great, he can be a regular. If not, well, he can join the multitudes who never did figure it out.

mike sixel: How good can Alex Kiriloff be, and when could we see him in MN? thanks,
Keith Law: That kid’s a star. I think he’s going to make more than a few All-Star teams if he stays healthy.

JR: I know most of the anger/frustration with our current Pres is directed directly at him and his admin, but I’m shocked how many individuals are willing to carry out all his racist/hurtful policies (oftentimes with glee). I couldn’t grab a parent and deport them. I couldn’t pull a child away from a parent and send them to a separate facility. I just couldn’t do it, yet there are so many people who are willing to “just follow orders.” It really baffles me.
Keith Law: Seemingly ordinary people had no problem rounding up, torturing, and killing Jews in World War II. Seemingly ordinary people had no problem grabbing machetes and hacking their neighbors to death in Rwanda in the 1990s. All it takes is a good ‘othering’ by the people in charge. That’s why i want Twitter and Facebook and Youtube to cut the crap already and kick the neo-Nazis and conspiracy theorists off their sites.

Joel: I think you have referred to research regarding organic foods vs. traditional. And gmo/non gmo products. Do you have those links? Personal thoughts?
Keith Law: I’ve posted lots of those links over the years. There’s no difference between GM and non-GM foods. Your body has no idea if the sucrose came from GM sugar or not. It’s like an intelligence test for consumers – if you pay more for non-GM, or demand it, you failed.
Keith Law: Organic is another matter. It’s not healthier, not per se. There aren’t pesticide residues all over your non-organic produce. But organic agriculture may be better for soil health, water retention, even carbon sequestration in the soil. And animals raised for organic meat, dairy, or eggs can’t be given antibiotics, which is a real and critical public health issue.

Justin : Are Moniak, Rutherford, Ray anywhere close to your top 100 as of now?
Keith Law: No, no, possibly.

Mike: At this point if any player gets caught with old offensive tweats or anything else bad on social media they should immediately fire their agent. It’s not an excuse for the behavior but how can an agent of competence not go through every social media account from day 1 and make sure there is nothing there?
Keith Law: How could they blame their agents for what they tweeted themselves?

Jason: The rumored SD package for Archer of Patino/Hedges/Renfroe — If that was on the table, SD would/should have jumped on it, right?
Keith Law: I would have done that, yes. I don’t believe that is accurate.

Scott of Lincolnshire: So Baez…………he might finish in top 5 of MVP this year. I recall him taking forever to heat up at every level of promotion in the minors too. Sustainable? Probably not, but i can’t quit him. Ever
Keith Law: Why would you quit him? He might be the most fun player to watch in the majors right now.

Marissa: Hi Keith. Kind of random but I am wondering your thoughts on Plawecki because I know that you were higher on him than d’Arnaud in the past. He had a good ending to last season and has been pretty average in terms of catchers this season. Do you see him being a starter still or not really?
Keith Law: Yep, a regular, not more than average at peak, but probably about that for a while.

NYTT: Re: Veterans Committee. If Andruw didn’t have the domestic violence incident, would he be ahead of Edmonds?
Keith Law: I feel better about Edmonds’ career than Andruw’s, since the latter was basically done at 31.

Spencer: Florial has crushed since coming back. SSS but where do you think he should be playing now?
Keith Law: Right where he is.

TF Fredrik: Do you find it interesting how all american sports are set up as a type of, not sure right word but, “socialism” for the benefit of smaller markets? Reverse order draft, revenue sharing, salary cap, compensation picks…etc. What do you think a completely free market in baseball would look like?
Keith Law: Totally unfettered could result, I suppose, in teams operating their own huge farm systems and hoarding players, a bit like Rickey did with the early Cardinals teams before other clubs caught on. But a more free market wouldn’t necessarily steer all talent to big-market teams because they have limited roster spots and playing time to hand out. I’d love to see a modified draft that made the top 10-15 players in each draft class free agents.

Kevin: I am an ESPN Insider member specifically to read your work, and very much enjoy reading your comment. As a Padres fan I understand your argument for Trevor Hoffman not being a Hall of Famer, but was disappointed that you would tear him down during his induction. Why not just move on from it now that he was already voted in?
Keith Law: I didn’t tear him down. Simply not true.

Seth: Is Dereck Rodriguez for NL rookie of the year at this point or at least well in the conversation?
Keith Law: It’s pretty clearly Juan Soto right now.

Tom C: Re: the seemingly ordinary people. One of my favorite movie quotes of all time is from Tommy Lee Jones in Men in Black: “A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky animals, and you know that.”
Keith Law: It’s a great line because it’s accurate.

Seth: Joey Bart is tearing it up so far. Is he above the level he is at or is there anything to make from his performance so far
Keith Law: He’s a college dude in short-season ball. It doesn’t tell us anything.

Andy: Has there ever been a draftee who demanded a no trade clause?
Keith Law: That is no longer permitted. NTCs mean major league contracts and teams can’t give draftees major league deals.

Chris: Has Richie Martin regained some prospect status this season? He’s hitting at least well enough for a shortstop.
Keith Law: He’s not a good shortstop though.

scrapper: I’m in a Strat o Matic league and I traded a few weeks back for Osuna in a deadline deal. Should I feel bad? Obviously it’s not real but I still wondered
Keith Law: That depends on how many woman fans your Strat team has, I suppose.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for reading, as always. I’m off to Gen Con tomorrow, so unless there’s a surprise trade my next Insider content will come next week, along with a chat next Thursday. I hope to see or even game with some of you in Indianapolis!

My Insider post on the Eovaldi, Andriese, and Oh trades is now up. Also, I have a new board game review up at Paste, covering Istanbul the Dice Game, which strips down the original Istanbul (an amazing game from 2014) to something quicker, simpler, but also more driven by chance.

Keith Law: You left all the lights on, but there’s nobody home. Klawchat.

Nick L: Is this peak Javy Baez? It almost feels like even a little more discipline moves him dangerously close to MVP discussions.
Keith Law: I think this is peak Baez; it’s unlikely (albeit not impossible … just highly improbable) that he finds plate discipline now.

Chris: Hi Keith. Looking forward to your book signing this weekend in MA. What do you think about how the Red Sox made out in the Eovaldi for Beeks trade? Thanks.
Keith Law: That post just went up (Insider).

Frank: The Jays traded a reliever for what MLB Pipeline says is the Rockies 13th & 24th best prospects. Would those qualify as lottery prospects, or is the Rockies system good enough that those are a little better than that? Side question: what would you expect the Jays to get for Happ?
Keith Law: See the link I just posted.

Arnold: Actual SI FB post earlier this week: “Mets Prospect Tim Tebow out for season.” Prospect??? Maybe fate favors the Mets since this means Tebow won’t be blocking any actual prospects for the rest of the season, but the Mets are gonna force this charade on us next season, aren’t they?
Keith Law: There are many people, even within this industry, who treat “prospect” and “minor leaguer” as synonyms. They are not.

Eddie: Wander Franco has looked great so far, can you think of another J2 signee that you rated so highly in his 1st season?
Keith Law: Yes, several, including Sano & Vlad Jr.

Dana: Do you fault Gary Sanchez for not hustling considering he reaggravated his injury in the first inning? I feel like he’s getting unfairly crushed here.
Keith Law: I wish Latino there was Latino some sort of Latino reason why Latino everyone is so Latino quick to criticize Latino certain players for not Latino hustling.

Mark: It seems the Rays take high floor players in trades, and the Padres have a rule 5 roster problem approaching, so could this explain the Padres and Archer rumor? The Rays might be willing to take some of the players the Padres aren’t going to be able to protect in addition to some premium talent. They made a similar deal in the past (can’t remember the details) where Boxberger, Andriese, and Forsythe were the return who have been nice players, but at the time were seen as high floor useful guys. Thanks!
Keith Law: Is the Padres’ rule 5 apocalypse that close? I think they’re a year-plus away from that. I don’t hate this idea like the Hosmer (-0.7 fWAR … but TEH LEADERSHIP) deal, but it’s still not really ideal for the Padres unless they’re somehow doing this without trading any of their top 10 prospects.

Ike: If you had your choice for a franchise player, who would you take between Acuna, Soto or Vlad jr?
Keith Law: Acuna. Or Tatis Jr.

Rich: Any advice for a first-time author? I am about to start writing after years of research. What were some of your biggest stumbling blocks with SB? Also, I hope to make it this Saturday in Acton at the Silver Unicorn!
Keith Law: I wrote that all pretty quickly, so I’m not sure I’d have stumbling blocks to offer. Just carve out dedicated time to write each day, because it’s easy to procrastinate on a project like that with long deadlines.

addoeh: To continue the discussion from the last Klawchat, is Creed worse than Nickelback and would positive comments about either “music” group cause a prospect to fall due to “dumb social media comments”?
Keith Law: My warning to all players at any level: If your walkup music is by Post Malone, I don’t care how good you are, I am slapping a fucking NP label on you and never looking back.

Joe: Keith, are there any good reasons why Ced Mullins and Dj Stewart are still in AAA given the Orioles’ struggles?
Keith Law: Is there a burning reason why either should be up? These aren’t elite prospects.

Joe: Keith, it seems like the Orioles hung on to Britton too long like they did with Machado. Would you have traded him after his huge season in 2016 even though the Orioles had just made the playoffs? His value was never higher and Chapman and Miller were just traded for huge hauls.
Keith Law: I would have, and I think I said so at the time, but it’s also a bit unfair to criticize them on Britton because he got hurt during the offseason and scotched any chance they could trade him then.

Aaron C.: What do you do if you’re Billy Beane/David Forst? (1) Hope the A’s offense continues to make Cahill/B. Anderson/E. Jackson look serviceable? (2) Trade for a back-end starter? (3) Trade some top-tier prospect(s) for a front-end starter? Thanks!
Keith Law: More like (2). Definitely not (3).

Bob: I know Isaac Paredes isn’t likely a SS, but he hit well in the FSL at 19 and Det must think highly of him to promote him to AA as a teenager. How good can he be as a 2B or 3B?
Keith Law: Above-average regular at 2b or 3b, definitely not a shortstop. Little bit of stat-scouting going on around him – good prospect, not an elite one.

Bob: After a rough start to the year in AA, Brent Rooker has been dominant for nearly 2 months. What’s his upside?
Keith Law: Solid-average regular.
Keith Law: I guess maybe a 55, above-average regular. Probably 1b. He is a grade 80 tweeter though.

Bob: Hans Crouse has had a couple recent 7 IP/double digit K starts. Does he have front of the rotation upside or more a reliever for you?
Keith Law: Delivery is reliever. Mentality is probably reliever too. Stuff would let him start.

mike sixel: Some Twins’ fans I interact with think the team should sign Escobar to a QO if they can’t extend him. Thoughts on 18MM for Eduardo Escobar? Admittedly, they have very little payroll committed for next year….but, 18MM?
Keith Law: Hardest of passes.

Bob: Kevin Kramer has followed up his AA breakout with a very similar AAA season. Can he be an above average regular?
Keith Law: In my opinion, no.

PhillyJake: In your write up of Mitch Keller, you wrote “If he finds that third pitch — better feel for the changeup, maybe even a splitter — he has No. 1 starter upside.” On June 28th, the day after Keller was promoted to Indy (AAA), Tim Williams of Pirates Prospects wrote about how his improvement in his secondary pitches lead to the promotion. I realize that ranking him 24th overall means you don’t hate him (Or the Pirates!), but I’m wondering when you’ll get a chance to see him again to see with your own eyes?
Keith Law: I have seen him – I just saw him – and what I wrote is completely accurate.

Bob: Have you had a chance to see Daniel Johnson in Harrisburg? He has not repeated his A ball power numbers, but his overall game looks solid. Can he be a starter or more a 4th OF?
Keith Law: Extra OF for me, some small chance of a regular.

MIKEPCFL: Just a quick thank you for sharing about the loss of your family cat and how your daughter handled it. It was very touching. Never just stick to baseball.
Keith Law: You’re welcome – thank you, all of you, for reading and reaching out after I sent that newsletter.

Harold: Was the White Sox’ 2017 draft as good as it appears with Sheets, Gonzalez, Hentzman, Tyler Johnson, Battenfield, etc. all doing well?
Keith Law: I just wrote up Sheets and Gonzalez … Sheets in particular looks bad, and bear in mind they took a lot of college guys who *should* do well in the low minors. Shame about Berger, though – he seemed like the kind of guy who could finish his first year in AA or higher.

Moe Mentum: Favorite band or musician that your wife was into before you were?
Keith Law: We have wildly different tastes in music. There isn’t much overlap other than bands we both liked from the ’80s.

CD: Ramon Laureano has had a nice bounce back season in AAA. Do you think he can defend well enough to be an average-ish regular in CF?
Keith Law: Astros tried to alter his swing – launch angle! – and it wrecked his 2017. I think definite fourth OF who can play all three spots, maybe 10-15% chance of a regular. I particularly like him as a player, just the way he plays, not the biggest tools but enough athleticism and a really good idea of what he’s doing.

C-Note: Who is the 2nd best player in baseball?
Keith Law: Trout is 1 and Mookie is 2. You can start your arguments at 3.

Seath: Do you have any other plans while in MA? Going to the RedSox-Twins series? I would have loved to go to your book event.
Keith Law: Nope, having dinner with my best friend from grade school and then driving home.

Concerned citizen: Why don’t other countries on par with the U.S. have the same amount of vaccines that are required?
Keith Law: Ask them. The science on this is quite clear.

SeanE: Will Craig has put up solid power numbers but with a corresponding drop in BA and OBP. Can he reach a happy medium and become a productive MLB 1b?
Keith Law: Don’t think so – more like a below-average regular/bench piece.

Jerry: Is Josh James a legit prospect. Seems to have really taken a step forward. Is he a high strikeout mid rotation guy?
Keith Law: Huge arm, has touched 99, bad delivery, command way behind control. Lot of relief risk. I have not seen him myself.

Neal Huntington: Do I put together a package of prospects to add a starting pitcher for the stretch run or was the recent streak just smoke and mirrors?
Keith Law: I would not advocate buying; there are nine other teams competing for the same playoff spots, and I don’t think their true talent level is better than their two divisional rivals.

Kevin: What kind of return could Carlos Rodon catch for the White Sox? Since there are not too many young, controllable SP on the market and they are still a few years away from competing, should the Sox look to maximize his value?
Keith Law: I don’t think the value would be that great for a guy who is less than a year off significant shoulder surgery and who hasn’t had a full season of sustained production.

SeanE: Any chance that Oniel Cruz can stick at SS or is his future at 3b? Is he a candidate for your top 100 next year?
Keith Law: No chance of SS. I’m not sure he can stay on the dirt – dude is like a skyscraper out there.

Dave: Do you have any recs for a good vegetarian cookbook?
Keith Law: Nothing I absolutely love; the best cookbook I have for vegetables is Nigel Slater’s Tender, which is veg-focused but not truly vegetarian. I own one of Isa Chandra Moskowitz’s books (Isa Does It!), which is vegan, but most of the recipes don’t work without significant modifications – I don’t think anyone tested them.

Jack: Does Haseley adding a leg kick, and subsequent success(SSS ik) potentially increase his value at the deadline?
Keith Law: No, pure SSS. Swing has been awful.

David: Have you ever played much chess?
Keith Law: Yes but I’m not very good at it.

Jeremy: I just wanted to reach out and say that I appreciate your willingness to discuss things outside baseball. While I may often disagree with your positions on some matters, I enjoy being able to read other opinions and points of view and discuss them in a civilized manner.
Keith Law: Thank you. That is also why I moderate the comment sections here so strictly – I would rather have a smaller but more civil discussion by keeping anyone seeking to comment in bad faith out.

Harry: Which Under Armour players impressed you the most? Did you write this event up?
Keith Law: There was zero chance I was taking a trip when my daughter needed me home like that.

Trevor: Thoughts on Forrest Whitley being rewarded with an invite to the Futures Game after serving a 50-game suspension?
Keith Law: Not great, Bob, but he ended up getting hurt anyway. MLB was in a tight spot – he’s the best RHP prospect in baseball, and not inviting him would have been weird, too.

Joe: Was there a time in your early days of scouting when you would look past flaws in order to defend guys you essentially “discovered?”
Keith Law: I’ve never discovered anyone. I go see players scouts or execs have identified for me as players to see.

Gerry : Beyond Rhys Hoskins’ obvious offensive talent, when scouting a player, do scouts really take into account leadership qualities as a tipping point for player A over player B, who be more high risk? Thanks KLaw
Keith Law: Not really. I think people tend to retcon that stuff on to a guy after he turns out to be good (or just gets paid a lot).

GEO: My condolences on your loss of Bailey; I once had a black cat of the same name. It’s a difficult decision to have to make. May I ask how you knew he was ill in the first place? They seldom tell you when they are in pain. Or was it uncovered in a regular vet exam?
Keith Law: That very afternoon, he was howling like he’d never done before, and that was the first sign. If you read my latest newsletter (tinyletter.com/keithlaw) I tell the whole story. It was shocking because he seemed fine just days before.

Joshua: I know it was a small, pretty inconsequential trade, but is there anything to be excited about with Jacob Condra-Bogan in the Goodwin trade? Thanks.
Keith Law: No. There were some strange claims that he was throwing up to 99, but he’s not. He’s a great story but I have 90-94 from scouts.

Doug: I think Buster might need to take a breath. What’s the problem with Preller checking in on controllable pitchers?
Keith Law: I agreed with Buster’s point – Archer’s window doesn’t coincide that well with when the Padres’ young core should be in the majors and producing.

Nate: You’ve mentioned the Cards Hudson having the look of a reliever. Is the basis stuff, mechanics, makeup, other?
Keith Law: Yes.
Keith Law: I don’t know about his makeup and can’t think of times that pushed a guy to relief.

xxx(yyy): Any specific recommendations for a Game Night with other couples (so not OVERLY difficult to understand rules/games)?
Keith Law: Something like Coup, Love Letter, One Night Werewolf (if you have 5+ people), Crossfire … social deduction games that move fast, don’t have a lot of rules, work well with alcohol.

xxx(yyy): Who ends up the better MLBer of the Rangers L Tavares or J.P. Martinez?
Keith Law: Taveras for me. He was on my top 50; Martinez wasn’t and wasn’t a consideration.

JB: CJ Chatham seems to have bounces back after the injury. Reason to be optimistic or is he old for high-A? Thanks!
Keith Law: Saw him. Like the glove/hands a lot. Bat is light.

Mark Antoch: Over/Under HR’s if you give Tyler O’Neill if the Cards gave him 550 AB’s in the majors next year? He’s a beast
Keith Law: 28 homers and a sub-.300 OBP.

Bryan: I always forget to show up at chat times, so I just wanted to say thanks for always being helpful and answering random questions on Twitter. But since I’m supposed to ask a question here — were you playing Pandemic Legacy? How is it going/did it go? (we’re about to embark on Season 2, and I’m already stressed out about it!)
Keith Law: We played it 5 times, I think, and liked it, but we’re often bringing other games to the table. Charterstone also sort of leapfrogged it in our legacy game queue.

Nate: Better OF prospect, Pache or Waters?
Keith Law: One was on my top 50…

Steve Culver: While they are all important, is there a particular race you are rooting for in the Nov elections? Really need to flip the house.
Keith Law: Not especially. They’re all important, and I just want to see more pro-science people in government at all levels.

Brian: What has happended in the last decade or so that has helped improve these 19-21 year olds succeed so early in MLB? Before trout and Harper, i dont recall seeing so many young players contribute so early at the major league level (excluding JR and Andrew Jones).
Keith Law: They’re a lot more physically developed now at 19-20 than I remember them being ten years ago, but I don’t know if the data on their performances bears out the impression we both have that they’re succeeding sooner.

Pete: Is Cornelius Randolph still prospect-worthy? 21yrs old at AA. Shows flashes
Keith Law: Not really. young but showing nothing, and he’s a 4 in LF.

Joshua: Do upcoming “mid-tier” free agents like Gio Gonzalez and Daniel Murphy hope they get traded so that they don’t have compensation attached to them in the offseason? Thanks, Keith.
Keith Law: Probably – it seems to hit them worse than it does top-tier guys, as you’d expect.

Mundo: What are your thoughts on Jonathan Loaisiga?
Keith Law: Love him if healthy, but he hasn’t stayed healthy. Mid-rotation upside, reliever downside.

Mark Antoch: Are you watching any HBO shows? Succession or Sharp Objects?
Keith Law: I finished S1 of the Leftovers. No interest in Succession.

addoeh: Favorite music video from the 80’s?
Keith Law: It’s tough to beat “Thriller,” although counting the whole 20 minutes is probably cheating.

Jesse B: Have you seen or heard anything about Nate Lowe to think the breakout is for real?
Keith Law: Saw him in DC. Slugger without defensive value. He’s something, not a star.

Ridley Kemp: Luis Rengifo is rocketing through the Angels’ system this year with some silly looking numbers (.316/.420/.484) with more walks than strikeouts. Have you had a chance to see him, or have you heard anything about him? He was totally off my radar coming in to this year.
Keith Law: I have heard solid utility type. Not a shortstop, maybe a 2b-of type who can fill in at short (not that he’ll do that with Andrelton there). Has played in some very good hitters’ parks this year too.

Doug: Which of the four Missions’ pitchers hits the bigs first? Paddack, Quantrill, Nix, or Logan?
Keith Law: Nix then Paddack.

John: Any non-fiction book recs from the last 12-24 months? Looking for a gift for my Dad’s birthday and he loves NF!
Keith Law: Killers of the Flower Moon or Evicted.

Andy: Could Mookie have been an elite fielding 2B?
Keith Law: Yes. I’m not sure there’s a position where Mookie couldn’t be an elite fielder.

paul: love your work. question about the metropolitans. with cespedes out indefinitely should the mets trade degrom and thor? as a fan I almost think I might just stop watching baseball if they do. if all the players you cheer and root for get traded prematurely or hurt (david wright) and you have terrible ownership (also a redskins fan so its a double ball kick) what’s the point?
Keith Law: The franchise should trade them, but with no clear direction or single decision-maker right now, they should wait to hire a full-time GM and then make those deals. Doing it now, with a potentially restricted market (more teams likely to be buyers in December than July), probably reduces your return.

Adam: Should Touki be in the Braves pen now?
Keith Law: No. that would be counterproductive.

Jax : Is it 50/50 that Zack Collins stays behind the plate?
Keith Law: It’s like 10/90, or maybe less.

Esteban : How likely is it that the Wilpon’s are forced to sell the team? And are there any potential owners out there that would bring excitement to the team? Coming from a Mets fan
Keith Law: I think next to zero chance. They only did this with McCourt when he was (supposedly) about to miss payroll.

John: Do you think we see a multi-inning relief pitcher in a fireman-type role put up 100 IP in the next 5 years? (strictly RP – 0 start guys – have put up even 100 IP since 2010)
Keith Law: Would you consider a guy who makes 1-5 starts still a multi-inning reliever? I’m okay with that. The guy you’re describing would have to be capped at something like 50 appearances a year and we haven’t seen that in … 20 years?

ColinMoran: What do you think of Seth Lugo as an under the radar acquisition as a starter. Small sample but very good xwOBA as a starter.
Keith Law: xwOBA doesn’t work. Lugo’s interesting, more likely a reliever – get him and have him throw that CB a ton.

JJ: Did the Cardinals’ front office screw the pooch with Carson Kelly? Should they try to trade him now, even though his value has declined? I can’t see any way he takes any playing time from Yadi Molina over the next two plus seasons — he’s got more job security than a governor’s brother-in-law.
Keith Law: Could still trade him now/this winter. Everybody needs catching.

Troy: What is the best restaurant in the nation you’ve eaten at?
Keith Law: Juniper & Ivy in San Diego. Would also nominate Monteverde in Chicago, Cotogna in San Francisco, PYT in Los Angeles, Rose’s Luxury in DC, Five & Ten in Athens GA, Husk in Nashville/Charleston, and of course Pizzeria Bianco in Phoenix.

Dave: (Six Seasons and Root to Leaf are both really solid and current vegetarian cookbooks)
Keith Law: I will check these out.

Harry: Kodi Medeiros headed to the White Sox for Soria. Reactions?
Keith Law: I have never bought into Medeiros as anything more than a LH specialist.

Jesse B: Daz Cameron looks way better in AA than he did in High A, does this have anything to do with the two different leagues or is he just getting better?
Keith Law: FSL can be rough on guys with just so-so power. Aaron Judge power, you’re fine. Less than that, might be rough.

Tom C: Sorry about your cat, but I wanted to ask – was that the one that got stuck in the wall a while ago?
Keith Law: That’s him! Good memory. Bailey was a sweet cat but not the brightest bulb in the chandelier.

Simon: Jhailyn Ortiz….real deal or just a guy?
Keith Law: I am completely sold on the bat. I am far from sold that he can play LF.

Bob Nutting: Would Kramer and Newman (not the Seinfeld guys) be and upgrade over Mercer and Harrison? Seems to me they would at least be comparable and I could save mega $. What is not to like?
Keith Law: I’d be OK with this, assuming you think you could deal the two veterans for something useful.

Zihuatanejo: Why is the hit/power/speed/glove/arm scouting rubric still widely used for position players? It always seemed to me that it improperly suggested an equivalence between differently-valued tools.
Keith Law: It’s a useful framework, but the bigger problem is averaging the five grades, or otherwise pretending that, say, speed is as important as hit or power.

Drew: Is Dillon Tate the most promising prospect the O’s have acquired so far?
Keith Law: Diaz is.

Troy: How did you and Curt Schilling get along when he worked at ESPN.
Keith Law: Actually quite well.

Scott Rolan: Am I a Hall of Famer?
Keith Law: yes, but you will have to spell your name correctly to get the 200 points.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Kelenic made your top 50 update but was #6 on your draft board behind Bohm and Swaggerty, who didnt end up making the list. Why the bump up after just a few weeks of pro ball?
Keith Law: Is that OK with you? I didn’t realize I needed to adhere strictly to the draft board. We get more data on players and pro scouts get their first looks at guys once they sign.
Keith Law: I spoke to scouts who saw all three players you mentioned.

Ridley Kemp: Did you see the recent article on Cohl Furey and the quest to find the Grand Unified Theory using obscure algebra instead of by bashing particles together? If not, it’s a heady read (and it makes me a little ill to think some of our top minds are seriously considering busking to further their work):
Keith Law: Yes, this was in my latest Saturday links post … but I won’t pretend I understood the math either.

James: Would you be opposed to a “prospect roundtable” broadcast of yourself and other experts who do lists, such as Callis, Mayo, Sickles, BA staffers, etc, and arguing your lists with each other? Personally I’d pay money to see it.
Keith Law: Mayo and I have discussed doing something like this with Jim for years but could never get all sides to agree. The three of us get along quite well, even though I think readers think we’re rivals of some sort.

Matt : If the Yankees end up in the WC game would you give any thought to them starting anyone other than Severino and rely on the bullpen heavy so they can pitch him in game 1 against the Sox or Astros?
Keith Law: Yes, but that takes some serious stones to actually do it.

Joshua: Is Carter Kieboom a realistic option for the Nats opening day 2019 starting second baseman? Thanks.
Keith Law: I think that’s too optimistic.

Braised Short Ribs: Come back to us, Keith!
Keith Law: I miss you, man. I really do.

Stephen: Take on S1 of the Leftovers?
Keith Law: Amazing. Extremely well-acted across the board. Fascinating themes. Thought the season finale was clumsy, though.

Nick: Any concerns about David Peterson’s struggles in Hi-A? Reports are he has been getting hit hard since the promotion.
Keith Law: And his stuff is off a little too – dead arm, maybe? I’m hoping it’s nothing serious. He was straight dealing for almost three months, with stuff/reports to match.

James: Do you think the wrong Lowe played in the Futures game? I’m partial to Brandon – agree?
Keith Law: Same.

Marshall MN: In regard to TV shows, I give my highest recommendation to the German TV show “Dark” on Netflix.
Keith Law: Thank you. I think someone else rec’d that. Or maybe it was you and you’re just relentless?

Todd Boss: Strasburg to DL: is it officially wave the white flag time in DC? Their comp pick for Harper is almost useless thanks to poor cap management; do they dare make the trade and admit complete failure? Gio, Murphy maybe even Wieters might have trade value?
Keith Law: I could go either way with this. Yeah, if they sell, they could potentially add a lot of talent – if there are buyers for Harper or Murphy. But they’re also a lot better on paper than their record, and the teams ahead of them have both overachieved a lot. If they decide to stand pat, I won’t criticize them.

Joshua: In the past you’ve rated Luis Garcia below Yasel Antuna, is this still how you’d rate them? Thanks.
Keith Law: I rated them just once, but Garcia has moved way past Antuna, whose body apparently has gone way backwards, showing no twitch or athleticism this summer.

Brad: Thanks for the idea to read the Hugo Award winners. Any chance of going back to any other Sci-Fi/Horror books? I’ve just started Name of the Wind (Book 1 of the Kingkiller Chronicle) and it’s really good so far! Thanks for the great work
Keith Law: I’m reading non-Hugo winners too – I have The Fall of Hyperion in my suitcase right now.

Adam: I live ten minutes from Pizzeria Bianco and have still never been there
Keith Law: What is wrong with you?

Matt : Funny how republicans hate socialism but are somehow okay with a $12B handout to farmers being altered by Trump’s crazy trade war.
Keith Law: I pointed out to someone on Twitter who was decrying universal health care as “socialism” (not accurate) that we have seen actual ideas that resemble socialism from this administration – you named one, and the proposal to nationalize coal plants was another – than far more than the philosophy of providing health care for all citizens, which research indicates will lead to a more productive populace and greater economic growth, has to be.
Keith Law: People have been using “socialism” as a pejorative for economic ideas they dislike at least since I was in high school, probably back to McCarthyism. Socialism is a failure. That does not mean that laissez-faire capitalism is the correct solution for every policy problem.

Nate: Would you call up Lazardo to be a pen piece down the stretch and, possibly, in the postseason?
Keith Law: I would not.

Brandon Nimmo: Any interest in writing about politics? Love reading your takes on Twitter.
Keith Law: ESPN wouldn’t allow it, and I’d have to spent a LOT more time reading about those topics to be even close to educated enough to really write about it. It’s one thing to tweet; it’s another entirely to ask someone to pay you to write thousand-word columns that offer cogent arguments.

Jack: Do you think it is just my Philly fandom that I think there is a real possibility that trout comes to Philly when his contract is up? Middleton seems like he wants a splash.
Keith Law: I’m sure Middleton does … and so does every other owner with cash.

Brandon Nimmo: Whoever acquires Zack Wheeler is going to look really smart aren’t they? I just hope the Mets get more than RHP relief prospects.
Keith Law: There is no way I’m taking Wheeler if Woolsey isn’t in the deal too.

Jim: How good is Azul?
Keith Law: I loved it. Best game of 2017 for me. Easy to pick up, plays a little differently each time.
Keith Law: Plays well with 2, 3, or 4 too.

Mike: Does Brendan Rodgers have superstar potential?
Keith Law: Yeah, but more likely a solid 55.

Amy: Wouldn’t Mookie have more value as a 2B? If Pedrioa is done, why not move him to 2B, benintendi to CF, JBJ right, JDM left? Wouldn’t that maximize the lineup?
Keith Law: Sure, if Pedroia can accept the demotion.

Darryl: What is an appropriate age for considering travel ball? I chuckle at the parents who think a kid needs to be on display as a 9 y/o. Always thought anything before high school was a waste of money, time and potential abuse of an arm, but it may be my old school thinking that is getting in the way of things…
Keith Law: I tell parents in my neighborhood that it’s fine for their kids to play travel ball as long as they’re not being asked to fork out hundreds of dollars for events, and as long as they’re making sure their kids who pitch are following PitchSmart guidelines (lord knows the coaches don’t care). Playing more is good. Just don’t fool yourself into thinking you’re advancing his future just by paying more for high-profile events.

Brian: Would you mind clarifying what “Mentality is probably reliever too” means in reference to Hans Crouse?
Keith Law: He pitches like he wants to shove the ball down the hitter’s throat. I love it. And sometimes that kind of guy stays a starter (Scherzer comes to mind). Most end up relievers. It was a compliment, though.

Vladdy & Eloy: Please please please, don’t rank either of us #1 on your next prospect list! Muchas gracias!
Keith Law: Seriously. I don’t believe in hexes, curses, or other superstitions, but I can’t believe Tatis got hurt within hours of me listing him as #1. Hoping he and Vlad Jr. come to Fall League!

Nick L: It looks like Miguel Amaya is certainly the best Cubs prospect, but how good could he be? Do you see him as a top 75 prospect?
Keith Law: He’s a top 100 guy, I feel pretty confident about that. He is their #1 prospect, easily.

Josh: Do you ever see a point where the current ownership of the A’s spends like the average MLB team? Seems like a new stadium is just an excuse. If the Warriors are able to spend and be successful across the parking lot, why can’t the A’s do more?
Keith Law: If they spend more now, it undercuts their claims that they need a new stadium (which they do – not that i think the city should pay for it, but they do need one). They have a strong disincentive.

Devon: Hi Keith. How has your anxiety been? Also, how is it when you travel? My symptoms tend to get worse. Any tips? Thanks!
Keith Law: Thank you for asking. I’ve been pretty good the last few weeks; it’s always higher leading up to the draft. The vacation helped, once we were on the plane.

KO: What is your favorite Cape League Park to watch a game at?
Keith Law: I can tell you my least favorite is Wareham.

BE: Will there be any big names at the August deadline, or was last year just an anomoly?
Keith Law: Last year was an anomaly.

Chip: What’s the top of next year’s draft looking like? I know it’s all highly subject to change, but wondering if there’s a generational talent or at least a Mize up their for the O’s
Tom: Why is Raimel Tapia in the majors if he’s not getting any playing time? Seems like a waste.
Keith Law: Very weak college pitching crop. Adequate HS crop. College bats are good not great. Overall looks like a down year.
Keith Law: I agree on Tapia, although no hitter is learning anything by hitting in Albuquerque either.

Jim: How much would Shin-Soo Choo help the phillies lineup? What would be the cost? Thanks, love your blog.
Keith Law: Does he fit them at all? Probably needs to DH. Their corner OF are both LHB.

Mike: Is there any valid reasons pitchers can’t run hard on groundballs when it appears they will be out?
Keith Law: Yeah, the risk of serious injury on something totally stupid.

Jackie: It used to be that 300 wins, 3K strikeouts, 3,000 hits, or 500 HR were automatic qualifiers for the HOF. Do you think there are any benchmarks for voters these days?
Keith Law: 3000 hits probably still gets you in unless you have the PED stain upon you. The pitching benchmarks have fallen, as they should.

Pat D: Still interested in seeing The Happytime Murders?
Keith Law: Yep. That and Black Klansman are the two films I’m most looking forward to right now.

bartleby: please explain to me why Jose Reyes and Juan Bautista are getting playing time.
Keith Law: #LOLMets?

Bredin: Is Gavin Lux a top 100 guy? Could you just give us your thoughts on him in general as well? Thank you, sir.
Keith Law: I’m very pleased to see his progress this year, although he’s still a cipher against LHP, and I don’t know how much of his power is the Cal League and how much is that the Dodgers try to optimize every prospect’s launch angle. He can play short, though, and his hit and eye tools are already there. Regular for me with lots of potential for more.

Salzer: I love me some Bo Bichette. Has his stock taken a hit at all or is the lower average just normal growing pains?
Keith Law: I just ranked him as highly this month as I had in the winter. Still quite young for double-A, too.

Dennis S: Is there any way the Dodgers sign Machado, move him to second or third base with Seager back or would that just cripple their overall player budget?
Keith Law: Seems like they’ll be outbid, given their general philosophy on free agents – and Kershaw can opt out if he wants to, so they may end up renegotiating his deal to prevent that.

tom: Am I being too optimistic in seeing a #2 starter in Chris Paddack? I mean, to the naked eye both the control & command are 70 grade. I realize he’ll need a 3rd pitch – how has his curveball progressed? He seems to be dominating AA hitters as much as he did in High A
Keith Law: It isn’t impossible to be a #2 with a below-average breaking ball, but it’s rare/unusual.

Matt : Do you have an interest in economics or more specifically stocks/investing. With your background it seems like topics you’d be on board learning about.
Keith Law: I don’t think an individual can beat the market. Used to read a lot more on that topic, and covered a lot of it in school. More interested in the behavioral economics stuff – what drives our thinking, and our bad decisions, and why man isn’t the rational actor that 200+ years of economic philosophy claimed he was.

Brett: Scott Kingery or Luis Urias long term?
Keith Law: Urias. Both good.

Frank: Derick Rodriguez has pitched very well for the Giants. Can he be a solid #2 or #3 going forward?
Keith Law: Way too high. Back-end starter.

Jim, the Frustrated Fan: I’m SOOOO tired of seeing so many injuries as a result of head first slides. Is there any evidence feet-first slides are at all safer?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to that, actually.

Darryl: Recommended restaurants in downtown Chicago? Family is taking a trip next month and would love your input!
Keith Law: Monteverde, Publican & Publican Quality Meats, any Rick Bayliss place, Little Goat (haven’t been to Girl & the Goat, I assume it’s fantastic). Pretty good little food town they got there.

Dave: I was wondering why you think nobody has signed Hanley Ramirez, since all they’d have to pay is the pro-rated minimum. Is he that done? Also wanted to thank you for the chats and for Stick to Baseball. Although I have an issue with Stick to Baseball, because of all the extra reading I have to do. BTW who’d a thunk George Will would become the voice of reason.
Keith Law: Doesn’t have any defensive value and teams are loath to burn bench spots on guys like that, not when everyone wants to carry 15 pitches.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all as always for reading and all of your questions, and this week for bearing with me as I got caught in traffic (!) driving here on the Cape. I may not chat next week because I’ll be at Gen Con – and hope to see many of you there. Also, if you’re near Acton, Massachusetts, come see me Saturday at 1 pm at Paul Swydan’s new bookstore The Silver Unicorn. I’ll talk baseball, take your questions, and sign copies of Smart Baseball!