Stick to baseball, 9/15/18.

My one ESPN+/Insider piece this week named my Prospect of the Year for 2018, with a number of other players who were worthy of the title but couldn’t unseat the incumbent. I answered questions on that and other topics in a Klawchat on Thursday.

Over at Paste, I reviewed the new game Disney’s Villainous, a card game that resembles deckbuilders (like Dominion) in mechanics, but gives you your entire deck at the start of the game. Each player plays as a specific villain, with a unique deck and victory conditions, so you learn each deck’s intricacies as you play.

And now, the links…

Lost Cities Rivals.

Lost Cities is one of the original, classic “couples” games, a strictly two-player game that’s quick to learn, has enough luck involved to allow someone who hasn’t played many games to compete fairly with an experienced gamer, and that has plenty of interaction to keep the two players engaged. It’s from Reiner Knizia, whose games are all built on a math foundation but keep that stuff under the hood. It has since fallen behind several other two-player games (notably Jaipur) in my own rankings & my house, but I’ll always have a soft spot for it because it was one of the first two-player games I ever tried and liked.

Kosmos has now released a new version of the game, Lost Cities: Rivals, that allows up to four to play at once, simplifies the scoring, and mitigates the luck factor at least a little bit so that players can strategize a little more over the deck. It still works with two players, but the design here, giving players money to bid on cards, is clearly aimed at getting the whole family to the table at once. It’s a nice filler game, nothing too novel, but again very easy for anyone to pick up and certainly appropriate for younger players (the box says ages 10+, but I’d say this is fine for kids as young as 8), and priced appropriately at $14.95 list.

The basic premise of Lost Cities: Rivals is the same as the original – players try to build ‘expeditions’ of cards in five colors by acquiring cards numbered 2 through 10 and playing them in ascending order. That is, once you’ve played a red 4 card, you can’t play the red 2 or 3 any more. The Rivals deck has two copies of each card numbered 2 through 5, and just one copy of each card numbered 6 through 10. On a turn, a player may uncover the next card in the deck and place it on the table for all players to see, or may bid on all face-up cards on the table, starting an auction that proceeds around the table until all players pass.

The scoring in Rivals is much simpler than in the base game. The original had you start with -20 points in any expedition you started, so you’d have to make up the deficit by playing enough cards to that expedition, with each card worth the points of its numerical value. That’s all gone in Lost Cities: Rivals, as you start with zero points in each expedition, score one point for each card you play to any expedition, and get a straight eight-point bonus for any expedition where you play at least four numbered cards.

Rivals also carries forward the ‘wager’ cards for each expedition; you can play one, two, or three such cards to any expedition before you play any numbered cards to it, and those increase your bonuses for each card to 2, 3, or 4 points. (The eight-point bonus for playing four cards is unaffected.) Each player begins the game with two random wager cards, while the remaining ten are shuffled into the main deck.

Players begin the game with equal stashes of gold coins – there are 36 in total, and you distribute them evenly among all players – to use to bid on cards on display. The deck is split into four piles, and when each of the first three piles is exhausted, the ‘bank’ of coins paid to buy cards is split evenly again among all players, with any remainder left in the bank. The player who wins the auction takes all cards but may discard one from the game entirely, and may not take any other cards s/he can’t legally play to his/her own tableau. Thus you may still want to bid on cards even if you can’t play some of them – there is value in discarding a card that’s valuable to an opponent, and there’s no penalty involved in winning cards you can’t play because you just leave them on the table.

The game moves very quickly since turns are short and decisions aren’t really that complex – it gets tricker towards the end when you’re hoping for certain cards and might preserve your coins to try to nab something important – with a full game taking under 45 minutes in our plays. It’s also very compact, like the original, something you could easily take with you on the road in its box or just by bringing the deck and throwing the coins in a small bag. I don’t think this will be in regular rotation here, though; it’s certainly light and simple, but I think we want a little more fun or strategy from games we’ll play often. This felt a bit too familiar, and other than the few times we were all seriously bidding on a set of cards, there wasn’t enough to get us laughing or taunting each other to make me want to pull the game out again.

Klawchat 9/13/18.

My Prospect of the Year column is up for Insiders/ESPN+ subscribers, while my review of the board game Disney’s Villainous is up over at Paste.

Keith Law: I’ve got no time for private consultations. Klawchat.

PhillyJake: Vlad Guerrero, Jr. as your minor league player of the year? Why, he didn’t even warrant a September call up! <>
Keith Law: Exactly. Meanwhile the Blue Jays’ VP is subtweeting me and making up alternative facts about other sites’ rankings to distract everyone from the manipulation of Vlad’s service time. Baseball fever, baby!

Pete Alonso: Obviously I wasn’t going to unseat Vlad, but no mention of me at all in your writeup? First the Wilpons give me the shaft, now you! Explain yourself.
Keith Law: A .355 OBP and not low strikeout rate in an extreme hitters’ park doesn’t get you on the list.

Rowland’s Office: Wouldn’t the Braves be better off deploying Touki as a multi-inning weapon out of the ‘pen than as a 6th starter, his current role? Going forward, does he profile better as starter or reliever? Same Q on Bryse Wilson. Really hoping they dont opt to spend big on Kimbrel instead.
Keith Law: Both absolutely profile as starters. Three-pitch guys with command and good deliveries.

Dan: You have an NL ROY ballet. Soto or Acuna. Go.
Keith Law: I don’t have an NL ROY ballot (or ballet), and won’t give an answer to that until we’re right near the end of the season.

Dave: Are you ok with Lewis and Kirilloff missing the AFL?
Keith Law: They didn’t miss it – they weren’t chosen, probably because both played full seasons already.

Nick L: Crack Shack was…..just ok. Am I crazy?
Keith Law: I’ve never had a meal there (at the original) that was less than outstanding.

Jay: Upside for Anderson Tejeda?
Keith Law: He could be a star if everything clicks – certainly has the tools for it, but isn’t close to that yet.

addoeh: Great job yesterday with Skating Away On The Thin Ice of a New Day! Do you take requests? Maybe Pink Floyd’s Wish You Were Here?
Keith Law: Thanks! I don’t know if I’ll play again on Periscope but if I do I’ll keep that in mind (certainly one of the first songs I learned on guitar back in the late 80s).

Nick L: Willson Contreras is not slugging at all. Think this is a permanent issue?
Keith Law: I do not.

Bill G: Hi Keith. Thanks for answering my question a couple weeks ago regarding divisional structure when MLB expands to 32 teams. A follow up question – would you prefer radical geographical alignment or a more traditional approach, maintaining historical AL/NL structures? Thanks!
Keith Law: No interest in geographical realignment. This isn’t the NBA.

Eric: What did you think of J.P. Martinez’s campaign with Spokane?
Keith Law: For a 22-year-old, it was not impressive at all. You have to hope this is just rust from not playing for a little while after he defected.

Barbeach: Hope you had a great summer. Are either Bird or Voit the long term answer at 1B for the Yankees? Or should their off season plans include finding the answer?
Keith Law: Neither is the answer there.

Aaron C.: We know Oreos are your “guilty pleasure” food, but in your younger, pre-SABR days, who was your guilty pleasure as a ballplayer? Mine will always be Deion Sanders – a mediocre player who was a joy to watch (for me).
Keith Law: I loved guys who could run. Didn’t matter if they were good. Gary Pettis. Hell, Gary Redus. And the guys who could run and were good, like Rickey, Raines, or healthy Eric Davis – those were my favorites.

Aaron C.: Am I mistaken or is this traditionally the time of year when you write your annual “who I got wrong” column? Not trolling at all, but it one of my faves. (I swear I’m not trolling.)
Keith Law: I think that’s on the calendar for next Thursday.

Mark: At what point does Sandy Leon’s total black hole in the Red Sox lineup, outweigh the love he gets from the pitching staff ?
Keith Law: I feel like he’s a modern example of Nichols’ Law of Catcher Defense: If a catcher can’t hit, people will just assume his defense is tremendous.

Odubel: Can Kopech still be a #1/#2? I thought he looked really great up here, his fastball had a great spin rate. What a shame.
Keith Law: If he comes back 100%, sure.

Jeff: Hi Keith – I saw that you recognized Mike King as a runner up for your prospect of the year but note that he is “probably not a starter in the long run.” He just turned 23, and has made significant improvements in the last year. What would you need to see from him next year to suggest that he could be a 4 or 5 starter?
Keith Law: Given the delivery, I don’t see it at all. His age and those ‘improvements’ (I’m not sure what those would be) are not factors.

Bmosc: Our President is a pathological liar, a narcissist, and more than likely a sociopath. How are so many people ok with that?!
Keith Law: Because he’ll lower their taxes and pack the courts with theocrats.

Jeff: Should the Yankees sign Manny Machado or stick with Didi at SS and Andujar at 3B?
Keith Law: Machado is clearly an upgrade. The question I would have is whether he’s a $30 million upgrade, and I don’t think that he clearly is.

Bob : Do you believe Neidert will be one of the starting pitchers for Miami in 2019?
Keith Law: Yes. Also, so will you.

Wally: Resending: if you are Nats GM and this offseason you can either (1) re-sign Harper or (2) extend Rendon, sign Grandal and sign morton, which would you do?
Keith Law: The latter is the better use of their funds, since they have Robles to fill the vacant OF spot (although I’m not a big Grandal fan).

Jo-Nathan: Should Cleveland think about selling high on Triston McKenzie? He had forearm soreness to start the year then pitched 90 innings and was shut down due to fatigue. If he can’t gain weight (listed at 165 lbs at 6’5) I cant see how he can ever hold up over a full season in the majors.
Keith Law: I don’t know that his weight is necessarily the issue – and isn’t this is first bout of any arm trouble? I could be wrong on the latter but I don’t remember him getting hurt before.

Hank: In light of Alex Bregman’s breakout and his taking the job of Astros’ key offensive piece, do you see this season as an outlier or predictive of his future value? Long term is he a better bet than Correa?
Keith Law: I think he’s entirely for real – although his power spike, like so many, is probably more a function of the baseball than swing changes or strength.

Darin: Why do you disagree with my scouting of minor league stats for my favorite prospect?
Keith Law: Because I hate your favorite team.

Garrett: Did you think Trevor Story would be this good? Also is this his career year or can we expect this from him going forward?
Keith Law: I think this is a career year, and I don’t think he’s close to the same player if he’s not a Rockie. His career K% is *down* to 30.5%, and that’s without facing better breaking stuff or even more movement on fastballs while he’s home.

SeanE: If you are the Pirates what do you do at 2b and SS next year. Can’t see Mercer or Harrison coming back. Do you go with the Seinfeld boys Kramer and Newman. Do you give Frazier a shot at 2b?
Keith Law: I’d go with the Seinfeld tandem.

Doc: Keith, any thoughts on the shake-up in Phils’ minor league department? Jordan out, several hitting coaches fired.
Keith Law: Jordan left – he wasn’t fired.

Nick: When can we expect your early 2019 draft rankings? Who are looking like the top talents?
Keith Law: Probably not until the spring because the summer stuff was so unimpressive, especially on the college side.

Andrew: Is this PR death total comment the worst of all bad DJT comments? Sheesh.
Keith Law: “Very fine people” will be impossible to top, but yes, it’s terrible, and already there are toadies lapping it up on social media.

Jay: He won’t win it, but should Brad Keller be getting some consideration for RoY?
Keith Law: No.

Jordan: Do you see Justin Dunn as a guy who can be a 2-3 starter at the big league level?
Keith Law: I do.

Sandy Kazmir: What broad sweeping changes will we see enacted if the Rays win 90+ games and fail to make the postseason? Same question, but switch Rays to Yankees?
Keith Law: None … and none. GMAFB.

thatssotaguchi: Do you enjoy My Fair Lady or are you Satan?
Keith Law: I love old school musicals, and I’ll watch anything with Audrey Hepburn in it.

Ghost of Guy Fieri: Looking for a good knife sharpener that won’t break the bank, any suggestions?
Keith Law: I recommended one in my gift guide for cooks last November.

17 year old, Wander Franco: How soon until I’m the number one prospect in baseball?
Keith Law: You might be a few graduations away from that.

Gus Johnson: Does JP Crawford need to get away from the Phillies to fulfill his potential?
Keith Law: That is possible, although I couldn’t say for sure.

Craig: Is Mark Shapiro the first executive to (essentially) publicly call you “fake news”?
Keith Law: No, but it never ceases to amaze me when executives do that. I don’t think it works out well for them in the end.

Robbie: Is David Fletcher of the angels a starting 2B? Seems more like a bench guy with the lack of power.
Keith Law: Bench guy due to (wait for it) the lack of power.

SeanE: Are you sold on Musgrove as a starting pitcher? Has had a pretty solid year. What is his ceiling?
Keith Law: Fifth starter, sure. More, I wouldn’t expect.

Marty: Are we allowed to talk to you at the AFL?
Keith Law: Is … is there something I don’t know about? Like a force field around me or something? Yes, of course you can. I’ll nearly always be at each game a little early anyway, which is the best time to catch me.

Chris: Dodgers still win the West?
Keith Law: With the Rockies up 2 and only ~15 games left, you would have to bet on them over any other single team.

Adam: You mentioned Paddack has nothing more to gain from the minors in your newest post. What ceiling do you think he has? #2 starter? Ace if he develops his curve?
Keith Law: #2 starter, but I don’t think he’s developing that curve. That’s very rarely a pitch that gets better with development.

leprekhan: With the extra pick from not signing Carter Stewart, the Braves are at least in a position to make some noise in the 2019 draft. Overall, how deep does the 2019 draft class look and do you think the Braves could get a comparable talent with their compensation pick?
Keith Law: Worse, and no. I had Stewart #2 in the class. This class is worse and the odds are they won’t get the #2 talent picking 9th.

TC: Rosario’s raised his slash line from .230/.274/.346 to .253/.294/.386 since your snark comment to me on Aug. 9. Looks like he’s on the upswing! Thanks for still believing in him!
Keith Law: Players don’t develop on our timetables. Sometimes patience is rewarded. Sometimes patience just ends up looking like obstinacy.

Jd: Love your work. How’s the migraine today? Should the Sox have called up feltman? Will their bullpen and their inability to throw strikes haunt them in the playoffs?
Keith Law: Better today, thank you. Three hour nap yesterday + two Aleve + extra caffeine did it. I think you draft a guy like Feltman high because you intend to call him up, even if it’s just to start in mop-up work.

Michael: Is Daz Cameron a future everyday OF?
Keith Law: For sure.

Danny: Piggybacking on your article, are Deivi or King realistic rotation candidates next year or is the answer these guys are not really starters but they could be reliever options next year?
Keith Law: Deivi is a starter but has one career AA start. Next year is probably optimistic. King is very unlikely to be a starter.

Steve: Keith great chats. Numerous anonymous scouts have comped Jared Kelenic to a young Mike Trout. Your thoughts?
Keith Law: I love Kelenic but at his age Trout was in AA and about 280 days from his major league debut.

Dan: Dylan Cease no mention today, is his fastball overpowering and still lacking secondaries. I’m happy he made it all year.
Keith Law: Today’s column was the best performing prospects, not the best prospects. Two different things.

Shiraz: Hey Keith, would you hold Blake Snell’s innings against him if you were voting for Cy Young? Is 180 IP the new 200?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t vote for Snell over Sale, certainly. The lower IP total matters in that it’s less production – the more you pitch, as long as you’re above replacement-level, the more value you deliver to your team. Snell doesn’t top Sale in either variation of WAR, and I think it’s fair to assume at least some of his low BABIP is good defense/luck.

Doc: Who will get a larger free agent contract, Harper or Machado?
Keith Law: Machado is my guess.

William: Who do you believe is the leader in the NL MVP race?
Keith Law: A pitcher. Nobody wants to hear that, though.

Louis: What’s wrong, if anything, with Adam Duvall?
Keith Law: He was never really good.

Jesse: Will you be able to any book events at changing hands during AFL?
Keith Law: I didn’t ask because the book will be a year and a half old at that point, but if you have a copy at a game I will gladly sign it for you.

Joe: You’re in charge of the Giants. What’s your offseason look like?
Keith Law: That depends on ownership, but I think this is a rebuild situation, and that includes exploring the market for Bumgarner.

Guest: Have you played or seen the board game
Sol: Last Days of a Star? I played it for the first time last night and I’m intrigued by the mechanics, theme, and what seems like high replayability.
Keith Law: I have not. It appears to be out of print at the moment.

Preston : Cubs have right to be upset about 30 days in a row of scheduled games, right? That said, Brewers are better, healthier team.
Keith Law: Cubs have that right, yes. I do not agree the Brewers are a better team.

Will B.: A lot of talk this summer about Jered Kelenic’s successful first pro season. However did you get a chance to see fellow classmate Alek Thomas start as well? Looking like in 10years he might be the best OF from that class…
Keith Law: I was very high on Thomas out of the draft, and said the Dbacks got a first-round talent, but I think you’re reading way too much into short-season stats with that statement.

Matt: Your colleague Michael Wilbon said it would be “Garbage” if Jacob DeGrom won the Cy Young. I think he should be MVP. What do you think?
Keith Law: I think you’re much more on the ball than my colleague, who apparently hasn’t read Smart Baseball.

Rod: Any chance that MacKenzie Gore debuts next season?
Keith Law: I can’t see a scenario where that happens.

John: Do you have a solution for service time manipulation? I see why teams do it what is the best way to fix it.
Keith Law: I’ve suggested a one-year right of first refusal option for players who reach free agency with 6.000 (six years, zero days) of service, to try to encourage teams to call up the Vlad Jr’s and the Bryants for Opening Day, at least. I have seen suggestions of age-based free agency as well, although I think that would primarily help college draftees, not the 19-year-old wunderkinds like Vlad Jr is now or Wander Franco will be in two years.

Bob: Keith – you mention guys that could run – Willie McGee. I am not sure I saw anybody faster on a triple the part from 1st to 3rd. As for the Padres – is Mejia’s bat good for a catcher or all positions – meaning he can find a new spot if Hedges sticks at C and his bat still has value say in OF?
Keith Law: Hedges is just not a good enough hitter to push Mejia off to another position.

Jason : With talk of his possible retirement, is Joe Mayer a HOF player? Is he if he stayed at catcher?
Keith Law: If he retires now, he’s going to be a borderline case who struggles on the ballot because his traditional numbers don’t add up and because he doesn’t ‘feel’ like a HoFer, while folks like me or Jay Jaffe may end up banging the drum for him when he pulls in 21% of the vote in year one.

Jeremy: Following up on Nick L’s question. It’s looking likely that only 1 Cub is going finish the year with 30HRs. Less than you would have predicted right? What do you think is causing the power outage?
Keith Law: Less than I would have predicted, not sure it’s anything other than randomness.

Sam: As an A’s fan, I desperately want to expect Ramon Laureano to keep being this good. I think you pegged him as more of a 4th outfielder when he was traded. Is that still your read?
Keith Law: I really liked him out of AFL 2016, then the Astros changed his swing and he stunk. Fourth OF was a bit of a solomonic answer – I thought he had good tools, but when a guy doesn’t hit for a full year in the high minors, it’s hard to talk about him as a regular. I’d still say fourth OF, but at least now we can have a discussion of whether he’s more, given his tools and now some performance.

Jay: Been playing Small World with my kids. What a fantastic game. Do you recommend any of the expansions?
Keith Law: Yes – we use two, one of which is called (I think) the Ladies of Small World and has some clever new races that really alter the way you play.

Erick Fedde: Am I at least a # 4 starter going forward?
Keith Law: I could buy a #4. I wouldn’t bet on more; still pretty homer-prone, secondary stuff has never been good enough for me to call him league-average.

Andy : With the way the Braves have been aggressive with promotions, do you think there is a chance Pache makes the majors at some point next year? He seemed to make significant improvements in his offense.
Keith Law: That I could see, although if Inciarte is still around there may not be a logical place for him.

Michael: Hi Keith, of the Tigers top pitching prospects (Mize, Manning, Burrows, Perez, Faedo), which, if any, do you see destined for the bullpen?
Keith Law: Faedo and Perez have the highest relief risk of the group. Mize has the least.

Del: Best pumpkin related food or drink?
Keith Law: Pumpkin pie. Obviously.

Andy: Bobby Dalbec possible 50 FV? Or too much chase and swing and miss?
Keith Law: That’s an average regular. I can’t see that with a K rate above 1/3 given his age.

thatssotaguchi: Do you think illegalizing birth control would be enough to get the silent majority to get off their asses and vote in an election? I used to think so but now I’m not sure.
Keith Law: I would hope so, but apparently there are a lot of people in this country who want women they don’t even know to have zero right to control their own reproduction.

Marple: Do you think Griffin Canning can be a part of the Angels rotation next year and what is his long term upside?
Keith Law: I could see that if he’s healthy. Mid-rotation starter?

Tom: When does Yusniel Diaz make it to the majors, and whats his upside looking like?
Keith Law: Thought he might get called up this month. Everyday RF.

Jesse B: Can Myles Straw be an everyday CF who bats .250 with 60sbs?
Keith Law: So little power I don’t see an everyday player.

Michael: Is Alex Faedo’s drop in velocity this season something to worry about?
Keith Law: He wasn’t throwing as hard as reported as a college junior. I think this is just what he is.

TP: Which Padres arms currently in the minors will be in their rotation in 2019?
Keith Law: I assume Nix, Paddack, and Logan Allen are in the 2019 rotation for most/all of the year. Morejon should get there later in the year, as should Baez.

Oren: Jameson Taillon seems like he took a strong step forward this year. Is there anymore ceiling for him or is this right around where you expect him?
Keith Law: This is pretty close. He’s really come a long way given all of the health issues he’s faced. Great guy to root for.

Bob: The John Henry owned Boston Globe wrote an article about how deep the Sox are in the lower levels of the minors. PR move or legit?
Keith Law: I don’t agree with that. I think their system is better than generally claimed (it’s not a bottom 3 or bottom 5 system), but they have had a lot of significant prospects get hurt. Still keeping my eye on Scherff as a breakout candidate.

Andrew: Love the chats (and the periscope yesterday), thanks for doing these. Is Johan Camargo a 3+ WAR/yr. player going forward? If no, why not?
Keith Law: I’d take the under on that too. Add him to the list of guys who had no power until he got to hit with the MLB baseball.

Juan: With hindsight was the Quintana trade a smart one for the Cubs or did they get fleeced?
Keith Law: Smart one. They knew what they were paying, but Q was, at the time, one of the top 5 pitchers in the AL.

Gary : Time to really start talking about Jeff McNeil? Do small sample sizes (3/4 of a season) matter less when you’re talking about guys who made major swing changes/adjustments?
Keith Law: He hasn’t played 3/4 of a season. He’s played about five weeks.

ScottyD in Downingtown: Kiriloff starts 2019 at AA? Would a mid-2020 ETA in Minnesota be accurate?
Keith Law: That’s probably right – although really, he might be ready next September, and we’re all arguing about service time manipulation again.

JP: Thoughts on sites nuking their comment sections (ESPN, RAB). I know they are mostly cesspools, but there are some communties that develop.
Keith Law: Moderation is probably impossible. If you’re not willing to block or ban people fairly quickly, the least common denominator will generally win out.

Ryan: Keith – you were notably not on the Moncada hype train before his debut. At this stage, how much more can he realistically become? Thank you
Keith Law: I said on Periscope yesterday that I think he’ll have above-average years and below-average years, rather than settling in at one level of production.

Adam: I don’t understand the use of the opener. Why not pitch a starter twice through the order then go to the bullpen. What does getting the first three outs with a bullpen arm really add?
Keith Law: Because those first three outs tend to be three of the best hitters in the opponent’s lineup.

Devon: Keith, do you see Eloy as the top offensive prospect in the game now?
Keith Law: No, that would be Vlad.

Oscar: What’s a good boardgame for a large group of people (4-8) that’s relatively easy to pick up?
Keith Law: Citadels, Sushi Go, maybe 7 Wonders. If you want something more party game-ish, One Night Ultimate Werewolf or its offshoot Werewords.

Anthony: Any of Detroit’s pitching prospects beyond Mize you’re confident can start?
Keith Law: Burrows can start but may not have huge upside. Manning can start, with work to do on command and secondaries, but he’s around the plate again and still 91-95.

Franknbeans: Luis Patino sure looked good this year. Do you still have him far down the list in San Diego?
Keith Law: He’s exciting but young and kind of small to start. I don’t know where he is offhand on their list but I wouldn’t put him over Tatis, Gore, Mejia, Paddack, Morejon, Baez.

David: Hi KLaw! Would love to buy you a beer (or just say “hi”) at AFL. When do you plan on heading out there?
Keith Law: Looking at week 2. They’re only playing 4 days of games in week one, which means I get just 8 games rather than 10, because of that stupid (and when I say stupid, I mean STUPID) “hitting challenge” that nobody likes.

JG: Did you have a problem with the Donaldson deal?
Keith Law: Yeah, my problem is that the Jays didn’t get enough back.

Anthony: What do you make of Pivetta? His stuff and strikeouts look really good, but maybe he’s got terrible in-zone command?
Keith Law: LHB kill him, because he has no CH or split to get them out.

BK: I’m struggling with WAR. I get that its a stat that is generally good at approximating but it seems like it’s the answer now to certain questions. where I struggle is defense, I can’t understand for example how Cain is worth nearly 2x Arenado or 3x Baez.
Keith Law: I’m not seeing where Cain’s WAR is twice Arenado’s, or even just his defense is.

Jeff: Has your opinion about Reynaldo Lopez changed this year? Fairly small sample, but he’s looked really good lately.
Keith Law: 4.85 FIP this year sounds about right.

Big Tawn: Does Byron Buxton need a change of scenery for his bat to pan out? Can he realistically be a 50 hitter with 50 power?
Keith Law: I think he can be that guy, but I don’t know if he needs a change of scenery, or just, you know, major league at bats.

Kyle: Which is more likely? Keuchel resigned or Josh James being a fixture in the rotation?
Keith Law: Keuchel re-signing seems more likely. James has a tremendous arm, earned a mention in my piece today, but there’s reliever risk there due to the delivery.

Patrick: Any thoughts on the Lorenzo Cain (non)MVP candidacy?
Keith Law: I must have missed something on Brewers Twitter because I thought Cain was clearly a candidate.

Brent : Not to be that guy, but in your post today you mention Cease as playing for ATL and not CWS.
Keith Law: Probably an editor’s mistake. I just send in the file, man. I don’t post it.

Matt: Are Mauer and McCutchen and David Wright HOF players to you? I heard Buster talk about them on the podcast. Just curious.
Keith Law: Mauer will be close. The others I think are on the outside.

JR: Next time someone argues that holding a top prospect down is smart because you will get an extra year of control in 2025, you should suggest they go look at the opening day roster for their favorite team from seven years ago. At best, they might have 5-6 guys still on the current roster. Between injuries, trades, lack of development, regression, getting better players in your system, etc. rosters just turn over so play to develop top talent and win now and instead of 7 years from now. Also, I would argue calling a top prospect up in Sep and letting them get their feet wet is a better intro to the Show then pushing them back a couple weeks in April because they “aren’t ready” They would be ready if you called them up last Sep.
Keith Law: I think a big problem with the “we have to get that extra year of control!” mentality is that fans don’t adequately discount future production. You know where your team is right now, but you have absolutely no idea where your team will be in seven years. We can talk about windows of contention, but we don’t know how long any one window will last. It’s a delusion to think that we know right now where the team will be 7 or even 5 years down the road, and whether the added cost to retain the player will make sense for the club or not. Meanwhile, that prospect might be worth an extra win or more next year, when maybe you’re contending and could use the boost.

Adam: #PadresTwitter is currently ranking Paddack and Patiño ahead of Mackenzie Gore on their team’s prospect lists. Is there a legitimate argument to be made that this is the case or is this just putting too much emphasis on results?
Keith Law: Way too much emphasis on results.

Bill: JaCoby Jones is a lousy hitter but an excellent fielder. If you are the Tigers, can you look the other way on his bat given the number of runs he’s reportedly saves with his glove?
Keith Law: I think he’s just a bench piece, and not even a great one at that.

Rod: Is it possible the Braves win the World Series?
Keith Law: Sure. Any team that makes the playoffs can win, regardless of whether they’re the best playoff team or the worst.

Dr. Bob: Now that your guitar secret is out, can we add guitars to food, politics, games, and music to the chat? I’ve always thought that Skating Away could be done by fingerpicking, but that was never Ian Anderson’s style.
Keith Law: I almost never play anything by fingerpicking. It’s just never been as comfortable for me. I only do it if the song can’t be played any other way.

Jim: I know you were high on Logan Warmoth during the draft. What kind of upside do you think he has?
Keith Law: I was, and then he slugged .317 in high-A this year. Welp.

Matt: Thoughts on Ross Adolph, outfielder in the Mets system? Named Brooklyn’s MVP, any chance he could carve out a role in the big leagues?
Keith Law: He’s 21 and had a .348 OBP in short-season. Way too old for the level.

Robert: How difficult has it been to assess Luis Robert given his lack of playing time and injuries? I keep hearing that it is difficult to evaluate power when a player has had hand/wrist injuries. Is there anything you could see that would suggest the power would come once he is fully healed?
Keith Law: He might be the AFL guy I most want to see, because I keep missing him and he just hasn’t played that much, period.

Migraine Sufferer: As a fellow migrainee, what would you do if you were allergic to NSAIDs?
Keith Law: Try the so-called ‘daith’ piercing.

Jay: Kowar, Lynch, Del Rosario all have been pitching really well for Lexington. Any of those guys potential top 100 at some point?
Keith Law: Feels like Lynch might have pitched himself into that range, although, again, I don’t keep a constantly updated 100 list, so this is an educated guess on how they’ll line up.

Larry: Other than Mize do you think anyone from the 2018 draft will make your top 100 list?
Keith Law: Typically 12-15 June draftees make my January top 100.

silvpak: mondesi’s pop has been something of a surprise, yet his strike zone judgment is….lacking. thoughts on continued development in 2019?
Keith Law: I’d project a sub-.300 OBP next year.

Chris: Because we all know there are some crazy sports parents out there: has the parent of a prospect ever reached out to you after a negative report?
Keith Law: Yes. I do not engage.

Louis: Thoughts on CJ Abrams and Corbin Carroll? Two of the top prep guys for next year?
Keith Law: Yes to both.

Christopher: My 10-year-old son loves baseball but struggles at playing it because he gets paralyzed with anxiety. Among other things, he is terrified at getting hit, stemming from an incident about 2 years ago. As a dad (and coach), I struggle between encouraging and being honest and telling him only he can work through it. I’m very sensitive to this being a larger issue. This can’t be unique though, can it?
Keith Law: That sounds like something that requires therapy. He could easily be traumatized by whatever happened two years ago, and that won’t just go away with time.

Joey: After his NWL season, has your opinion changed on Joey Bart’s hit tool? Or does he still project as a below-average MLB hitter?
Keith Law: He was way too old for the NWL.

Pat D: Isn’t it great that we’re going to have a Supreme Court justice who has committed perjury?
Keith Law: This is America. Get your money.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all, as always, for all of your questions. I’ll be back next week after the ‘players i was wrong about’ column runs for another chat. Enjoy your weekends!

On Chesil Beach.

I read Ian McEwan’s Atonement back in 2007 but strongly disliked how manipulative the narrative turned out to be, so I skipped the highly acclaimed film adaptation that came shortly after, with a then-unknown 13-year-old actress named Saoirse Ronan playing one of the pivotal roles in the movie. Ronan is now, of course, a three-time Academy Award nominee, including one nod for Atonement, and returned to McEwan’s milieu as the star of this year’s adaptation of his novella On Chesil Beach (amazoniTunes), which covers familiar thematic territory but does so without the trickery of the earlier work, and builds slowly to a crescendo finish that ends with an gut-punch conclusion that speaks volumes with very little dialogue to punctuate it.

On Chesil Beach is an ostensible love story between upper-class Florence (Ronan) and working-class Edward (Billy Howle), told mostly via flashbacks on their wedding night as the two approach their first time in bed. A sweet, awkward romance emerges in scenes from their courtship, including stories of her frigid mother and angry, distant father, as well as images of his difficult childhood with a mother who suffered brain damage in an accident and has trouble with memories and with some basic social graces (including, as it turns out, wearing clothes when required). It eventually comes out that Florence’s wedding-night jitters are more than just tremors of anticipation, but that there is something extremely wrong beyond mere ignorance of the mechanics of sex. When Edward makes his first, clumsy attempt, the flashbacks turn darker – apparently the reason for her terror is clearer in the movie than the book – and the tone of the film turns abruptly into one of regret and shame for Edward as he details his life after the wedding night.

As with Atonement, one character’s rash decision in youth affects multiple lives, but here there is no pretense or deception on McEwan’s part – we know what happened in the ‘real time’ of the script, and there’s no sleight of hand to mislead us. For me, at least, that made the final half hour, from the wedding night, the revelation (to us, but not to Edward) of Florence’s past trauma, and the jumps forward to Edward’s future without Florence gutting to watch, as he realizes what his reactions in the heat of the moment – both out of anger and shame – have cost him over the remainder of his life.

Music is a recurrent theme in On Chesil Beach as well, including the use of classical music (Florence’s passion, as she plays in a string quartet) and early rock and roll (Edward especially loves Chuck Berry) to further distinguish the two main characters’ class differences. There’s also a scene about adding a fifth member to the group where we see a totally different side of Florence, a stronger, almost domineering presence at the head of the quartet, in full contrast to the timid woman shown in intimate scenes with Edward, as if to make clear that she’s not a nervous or weak person, but is repressed in a specific situation for a specific reason.

Ronan is superb, as always, although there are certainly scenes here where she’s reduced a bit by stilted dialogue to standing around in cute dresses; her character is by far the more pivotal of the two, and requires more restraint than the role of Edward, whom Howle plays as emotionally messy and underdeveloped, himself probably as unprepared for the institution of marriage and the responsibilities one has to a partner as Florence was for sex. The movie’s first hour or so is fairly slow going, I think by design, and some of the side characters are very thin, including Florence’s mother (played by Emily Watson), whose role in all of this could have used more explanation and whose attitude towards her daughters is itself hard to fathom.

At the 80 minute mark, I was sure I’d be calling On Chesil Beach a trifle, or even a bit dull, but the turnaround towards the end was so powerful that it forced me to reassess everything that came in the first 2/3 of the film. Nothing prepared me for how the story would wrap up, or how McEwan’s screenplay would shift the focus to make it clear that the blame isn’t on Florence, and that we’ve seen too much of the story through Edward’s eyes to understand how wrong he was to react as he did. The result is a potent, wrenching portrait of regret that also serves as a plea for understanding when someone we love needs it most.

Foxtrot.

Foxtrot (amazoniTunes) was Israel’s submission for the 2017 Academy Award for Best Foreign Language Film and made the December shortlist of nine titles, but didn’t advance to the short list of the final five nominees, with the honor eventually going to the Chilean film A Fantastic Woman. Foxtrot is now the eighth of the nine films I’ve seen – the Senegalese film Felicité is the exception – and wouldn’t have made my top five out of this set either. Its messages are powerful, its theme important, its symbolism fascinating, but it’s also jumbled thanks to a structure that breaks the film up into a disconnected short stories and doesn’t sufficiently arm the viewer for what’s coming or give enough context to much of what we see.

The film opens with a woman, Dafna, answering a knock at the door and immediately fainting upon seeing who’s there – two Israeli soldiers who, she correctly assumes, have come to tell her that her son has been killed on duty. Her husband, Michael, stands there impotently while the soldiers give his wife a sedative and carry her to a bed, and then gets the news himself and reacts in not too dissimilar fashion. This whole scene, with a grieving uncle and sister adding to the fray, goes on for a half an hour or so, until we find out the IDF screwed up: It’s the wrong Jonathan Feldman, and their son is actually still alive, after which Michael demands that the IDF bring him his son immediately, regardless of where he is or what he’s doing.

The action abruptly shifts to Jonathan’s side, where he and three other very young soldiers man a rural, ramshackle checkpoint, occasionally examining the ID’s of the few travelers to pass down their dusty road. It’s thankless, boring work, but eventually someone does show up and the boys incorrectly perceive a threat, which results in the deaths of the travelers, an IDF cover-up, and then the call for Jonathan to come home.

There’s a lot to unpack in Foxtrot, which was condemned by conservative forces in the Israeli government for its unflattering portrayal of the IDF. The film asks fundamental questions about the purpose of all of this security theater in Israel, and whether the country is sacrificing the lives of young people for little or no benefit. (The Palestinians themselves are merely props in the movie.) It also examines the weight of history, of what happens when we ignore our cultural heritage, and whether in this case MIchael has pushed his son to do something to satisfy his own weaknesses and insecurities.

The film practically overflows with symbolism, not least of which is the foxtrot itself, which appears as a dance and a word in several spots, and which Michael later explains as a dance where several steps never take you anywhere – you always end up back where you started. Mud appears repeatedly as a motif, both as something the soldiers can’t get rid of and a symbol of the futility of their attempts to make any progress, including the way the shipping container the boys have as their base is gradually sinking into the mire. Camels appear several times as well as a symbol for the absurdity of the fight against an enemy whose existence is known but prevalence is not.

The story, however, never coalesces into a coherent narrative, and the way that Michael and Dafna reconcile at the end – after Michael has seriously injured their dog by kicking it – was thoroughly unconvincing. (I don’t care what the reason is – if you can seriously injure an animal on purpose, I can’t even be friends with you, let alone married to you.) It feels like we’re getting two almost completely unconnected stories here, with the futility of the war the one thing that unifies them. It’s a better vehicle of metaphor than it is a functional movie.

Stick to baseball, 9/8/18.

My one piece for ESPN+/Insider this week looked at the top prospects at last weekend’s Future Stars Series, including Daniel Espino, the top RHP for the 2019 draft, and Glenallen Hill, Jr. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

My annual minor league player of the year column is supposed to run this upcoming week, which means I need to write it (it’s not like the winner is a tough choice, but I like to highlight a few other dudes who had great years too), and I am hoping to get a new edition of my email newsletter out as well.

And now, the links…

  • Slate looks at the sustainability of The Athletic’s business model while raising critical questions about whether their content is actually as unique as they claim it is. (I’m an Athletic subscriber and happy to pay for good content, but I would say I read a very small number of writers on that site.)
  • Two longreads from the great investigative journalism site ProPublica this week. First, how Oregon keeps releasing violent criminals who were judged criminally insane, with several such convicts eventually reoffending for violent crimes.
  • Also, José Bacelga, a cancer researcher and the Chief Medical Officer at Sloan Kettering, failed on several occasions to disclose financial conflicts of interest when publishing cancer research in major journals. He was even editor-in-chief of one such journal that published his research yet broke its rules on disclosure.
  • I loved Will Leitch’s take on Nike choosing to ally itself with Colin Kaepernick despite the entirely expected outcry from the right. I also think they got more publicity value out of the announcement than they could possibly have bought. (Will is a friend of mine.)
  • Ars Technica, for whom I have written one freelance piece, has a short column asking BBQ pit masters for basic tips on pork butts and briskets. I’ve used the foil trick to get around the stall problem with pork shoulders, but prefer not to use it because it softens the bark that forms on the meat’s exterior.
  • The President’s increasingly overt racism shouldn’t be a surprise – he’s been attacking Elizabeth Warren for years by using ‘Pocahontas’ as a sort of racial slur to question her integrity. The Washington Post debunks Trump’s claims that she used her heritage to obtain promotions or admission to schools.
  • A trans woman of color was murdered in Philadelphia this week, and 2018 is shaping up to be an especially deadly year for trans people in the US, although it seems like hard data on the subject is hard to come by. I think it’s fair to say the trend isn’t good – such killings should be going down and they’re probably not.
  • Passengers on four Southwest Airlines flights may have been exposed to measles thanks to a sick passenger who traveled on those planes. The measles virus is extremely contagious and can be fatal at the time of infection or later in life. I would entirely favor a law criminalizing the woman’s actions: flying with a contagious, vaccine-preventable disease, thus putting hundreds of people at risk.
  • Ride-sharing services like Uber may be exacerbating traffic problems because riders choose them over public transportation, not over driving themselves. I do use these services from time to time, but not when public transit is available (and safe).
  • Twitter banned Alex Jones and InfoWars this week after months of pressure to rid the site of the hoax-peddling arch-right conspiracy theory factory and its corpulent founder. Jane Coaston covered these bans last month for Vox, looking at why YouTube, Apple, and Facebook took the same action.
  • Board games! Z-Man Games, an imprint of Asmodee, announced the latest extension to the Pandemic brand with Pandemic: Fall of Rome, which sounds a lot like last winter’s Pandemic: Rising Tide, another game that took the framework of the original Pandemic, added some clever twists to the rules, and shifted the theme away from fighting global epidemics.
  • Floodgate Games announced the Kickstarter for Bad Maps, a light family-level strategy game they demoed at Gen Con. It’s about 2/3 to its goal with 18 days to go. Floodgate also released the 5-6 player Sagrada expansion, which includes a private dice board to tweak the original’s dice-drafting mechanic, to retail this past week. It’s $25 on amazon via that link.
  • Starling Games announced a Kickstarter, opening to backers on September 10th, for Pearlbrook, the first expansion for Everdell, itself in the running for my #1 new game of 2018.
  • It seems like each week brings one great new(ish) comic on vaccine denialism, so here’s the latest.

First Reformed.

First Reformed is a return to form for Paul Schrader, the writer of Taxi Driver and writer/director of Affliction, whose recent career has been marred by bad choices of projects, none worse than The Canyons, billed as a comeback project for Lindsay Lohan but a critical and commercial failure. (It also featured porn star James Deen, who was accused shortly thereafter of raping several women on adult film sets.) Featuring a virtuoso performance by Ethan Hawke, First Reformed asks powerful questions about the meaning of our existence, our responsibilities to the planet and to others, and whether people of faith can know or pretend to know the mind of God. For most of its nearly two hours, it is a taut, well-acted, Oscar-worthy film, but Schrader doesn’t quite stick the landing and I’m still not sure what to think about the closing scenes.

Hawke plays a minister named Ernst Toller, overseeing a dwindling congregation in a small rural town, subsidized by a megachurch called Abundant Life led by a charismatic minister named X (played by Cedric “The Entertainer” Kyles). Toller is visited by a woman, Mary (Amanda Seyfried), who is concerned about the mental state of her husband, a former environmental terrorist who remains obsessed with man’s destruction of the planet. She’s pregnant, and her husband wants her to have an abortion because he believes it’s cruel to bring a child into this world and the bleak future for humanity. When the husband takes his own life despite the counsels of Toller, however, the reverend is set off into his own dark night of the soul, reexamining his own past mistakes.

The movie is very much a showcase for Hawke, looking haggard and ground down by life in this role, who carries a drawn look throughout the film, the way someone fighting an inner torment and refusing to reach out for help or accept any offered might present himself to the world. We learn more about Toller’s past, and some reasons why he might act the way he does and be experiencing his own crisis of faith, but it is Hawke’s demeanor and intensity that carries the character and the film as a whole, as no other character, not even Mary, can come close to his role or his three-dimensional nature.

The choices of names in the film can hardly be accidents, and Schrader has cited specific films as influences (although I haven’t seen them, including Ingmar Bergman’s Winter Light, and wouldn’t have caught those allusions). The real Ernst Toller was a German playwright known for left-wing views; he collaborated with anarchists and communists and served for six days as the leader of the so-called Bavarian Soviet Republic, but spent his last six years in exile before hanging himself in 1939; the film’s Toller is himself in exile, figurative and semi-literal (as he’s cloistered himself at the head of a scarcely-attended church). Mary is pregnant in the film, and the child’s father is known but disappears from the narrative, and while she first appears on the scene as someone trying to save her husband, she’s really here to try to save Toller – or at least allow him to save himself.

The ending is distinctive and shocking enough that I won’t spoil it, but I will say here that I’m not sure if what we see in the final scenes is real, and if it is, what it’s telling us about redemption or second chances. The last fifteen minutes or so include a dream sequence that could be a bit of magical realism, and an ending that is at least open to interpretation, especially the way Mary’s character appears in the last sequence, bathed in sunlight. The few reviews I’ve read or heard about First Reformed commented on how the ending doesn’t seem to fit well with what came before, and I mostly agree with that sentiment; I thought we might be seeing Ernst having a religious experience, but if that was the case it wasn’t well set up before or afterwards. It’s a very good movie with a solid script and a great central performance by Hawke, further punctuated by some of the wide shots contrasting Toller’s old but charming church with the antiseptic megachurch that helps keep his going. Whether it’s a great movie to you will probably depend on to what extent you buy the ending.

Klawchat 9/6/18.

My ESPN+ (Insider) writeup of top prospects at this year’s Future Stars Series, including Georgia prep RHP Daniel Espino and NorCal infielder Glenallen Hill, Jr., went up on Wednesday.

Keith Law: Swept away for a moment by chance. It’s Klawchat.

Nick: Is Blake Swihart still a change-of-scenary- type of guy or is he just a weird positional tweener with a bat that doesn’t profile unless he can add defensive value?
Keith Law: The bat will profile behind the plate, and I think if he gets regular playing time and stays healthy the bat would profile elsewhere too.

David: After LeMahieu isn’t re-signed, the plan is for Brendan Rodgers to play 2B, right? Have to think Story has solidified himself at short. But of course the elephant in the room is Arenado – do you think he stays long-term?
Keith Law: I think Story’s a better defender than Rodgers, so yes, I’d expect that, although I have never seen Rodgers as a guy who’d have to move. They should keep Arenado as long as they’re contending, and move him if they think their window is closing – you don’t want to end up in Baltimore’s situation with Machado where you accept half or less of what you might have gotten had you acted sooner.

Addoeh: Does Joe West look like a baked potato?
Keith Law: I would probably not eat a baked potato that looked like Joe West.

mark: Hi Klaw,

What should SD do with Franmil Reyes moving forward… keep him, trade him? Is he at least an average MLB OF?
Keith Law: I don’t think he has the offspeed recognition or discipline to be a league average OF. I will say that Zack Godley demonstrated that Franmil can murder a dick-high fastball though, so maybe teams shouldn’t throw him those.

Jibraun: The college football season has started, and Kyler Murray is actually playing. How are the A’s actually ok with this?
Keith Law: They agreed to it up front. Why they did that, i’m not sure.

KS: can you rank these players based on future potential — muzziotti, moniak, haseley?
Keith Law: Muzziotti is the only one of the three I’d rank right now.

Archie: Hearing the news about Ohtani needing TJ made me wonder if PRP injections ever worked long-term (or, really short-term). Can you think of anyone who has had the treatment and was productive for any meaningful period of time?
Keith Law: My understanding is that they work for some pitchers with partial tears, but not all, and they don’t work on full tears. Of course, you can come back too soon or put in too much effort after PRP and still further damage the ligament.

BE: With the emphasis on controllable talent increasing, are teams pouring more resources into nutrition, instruction, etc. to maximize those early years?
Keith Law: Some are. I’ve suggested sleep as an area teams could look at to try to gain an edge as well. People who don’t obtain sufficient sleep experience cognitive deficits even after just one night. Imagine trying to hit a 95+ mph fastball with your brain at less than its best.

Santos: How significant is Joe Jordan’s departure from the Phillies?
Keith Law: I think they lost a really great baseball mind. I was also a little surprised as I don’t think player development has been an issue there – I know Jordan resigned, and wasn’t pushed out – while their draft results clearly have been. I don’t think it’s going to affect them dramatically long term but if I were in a GM chair I’d hire Joe in a heartbeat.

Moe Mentum: Can you still envision Scott Kingery and JP Crawford as the Phillies’ middle infielders for the next decade? Or do we need to reset expectations based on 2018’s struggles for each?
Keith Law: Kingery yes. Crawford has to prove himself again to the coaching staff – he has more ability than most players on the team, but isn’t putting in the same kind of effort.

mark: A few weeks ago, someone asked you about Padres prospects who will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft. According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, players eligible this offseason will include Anderson Espinoza, Chris Paddack, Trey Wingenter, Austin Allen, Brett Kennedy and Pedro Avila, while in 2019 it will include Tatis, Logan Allen and Jorge Ona.
Who from that group would you leave unprotected? And who from the following group of Jankowski, Reyes, Renfroe, Manuel Margot, Franchy Cordero, Clayton Richard, Cory Spangenberg and Christian Villanueva would you rather trade or cut in order to protect the prospects?
Keith Law: Wingenter and Kennedy are on the 40-man already, so they are protected unless the Padres outright them; I might consider Kennedy but Wingenter is a keeper. Jankowski, Richard, Spangenberg, and Villanueva are all fungible extra guys, the type they’ll be able to replace from within rather quickly.

Chris: How far off is Yordan Alvarez from being in your top 50? Is his lower ranking due to the fact that he is a 1B?
Keith Law: He’s a bad 1b with an older body.

Quinn: Other than Bo and Vlad, which (if any) Jays prospects should we expect to see in your top 100 this offseason?
Keith Law: Pearson. That’s probably it, which is one reason of several why I laughed at the Jays’ front office claims that they have a top 5 system. After maybe, maybe six names, it drops off fast.

Tadd: Are we all the way back in on Giolito?
Keith Law: I’m mostly back in. Command still a grade below where it ought to be, but stuff looks better, throwing more strikes, mechanics seem at least more consistent if not perfect.

jaren: christian mccaffery a top 5 rb this year in ppr?
Keith Law: This is America – speak English.

Anthony: So where do the Angels go with Ohtani now?
Keith Law: I would plan to give him 2019 off after TJ, rather than rushing back hi bat and risking any sort of re-injury or setback in the rehab.

Evan: What would be your plan with Tyler Mahle? Can he still be a middle of rotation arm?
Keith Law: I think I’d called him a fourth starter/league average guy, and I would stick to that. Some prospects click right away, some take more time.

Joshua: My dad makes some sly comments that can be offensive sometimes (not often) but doesn’t realize it. When I try to correct him he says that he didn’t know that people take offense to it and that people are more soft nowadays. What’s the best way to correct him but not be disrespectful
Keith Law: Well, you could point out that calling other people “soft” is itself insulting – you don’t tell someone they’re ugly and then yell at them for getting upset over it. And once you’ve said something’s offensive, when he does it again, he’s lost that excuse. But for me, the answer has always been simple: If you’re going to make racist, sexist,
homophobic, or other bigoted comments around me – let alone in front of my daughter – I will choose to spend my time with other people.

Craig: If Sarah Sanders wrote the op-ed, could she find work with the Toronto Blue Jays?

“It has nothing to do with business. It has nothing to do with anything other than we think the best thing for him developmentally is to play in Arizona.”

Clearly, i s you pointed out on Twitter, this is laughably false.
Keith Law: I mean, I understand they can’t tell the truth (or Vlad would file and win a grievance), but don’t lie. That’s just such a blatant falsehood. I’ve scouted the AFL myself the last 12 Octobers. It’s a substantially lower caliber of play than September MLB games provide. The comments were a direct insult to the intelligence of every Jays fan.

Rod: Is it safe to assume that Touki is in the rotation next year? What are the odds for Triston McKenzie?
Keith Law: I think Touki’s a starter for most of next year. McKenzie is a starter if he shows he can stay healthy next year in AAA.

Beau: Do you think the Padres rebuild will actually work out?
Keith Law: Absolutely.

Mighty Ox: What is your advice to a high school junior (just turned 16) who aspires to pitch at an Ivy League School or their close equivalent? FB is 85 mph, SAT 1400 (first try), school weighted avg ~100. Good kid. Thanks
Keith Law: I’m not sure what more to tell you – if he’s got the grades, then he should just keep working on his craft on the mound, and maybe look for one or two things to help distinguish his application like quality volunteer work.

Scott: Do the Pirates have any hope of rebuilding their lineup from within or are they going to have to make some major moves? Also, thoughts on Ulysses by James Joyce and any 2018 board games have a chance of Cracking your Top 100?
Keith Law: They’ll have to add at least one piece from outside this winter. I reviewed Ulysses here on the dish in two posts a few years ago. I expect at least 5-6 games from this year to make my top 100 if not more.

Fred: It seems like the Braves are trying to give Philly the division but the Phillies don’t want it. Why is the whole division in a slump?
Keith Law: Maybe both of those teams were playing a bit over their heads? Both blew away any preseason predictions or projections I saw through the start of August.

Nate: Since making his plate adjustment on June 6, Gregory Polanco is slashing 287/362/563/925 (before yesterday’s games) in 300 PA. Only 11 guys have a 925 OPS this year. Is that the type of player he is going to be?
Keith Law: It’s the type of player I believe he should be, given his tools.

Gary : You seem to be lower on Peter Alonso than most. What would you have to see to change your opinion on him? (I guess this is also a general player development question )
Keith Law: I don’t know what “most” think but I know he’s a 40 defender at first.

Jake: Does Daniel Lynch’s uptick in velo this season change his ceiling?
Keith Law: If it sticks, yes, although I was pretty high on him anyway because he has four pitches with a + slider and good control. Plus he’s an animal on the mound.

Victoria: Is Kevin Kramer and Kevin Newman the middle infield combo for the Pirates next year?
Keith Law: We all hope so.

John: Following the Buxton and several other situations. I have seen several proposals for FA starting at age X or X years after being drafted? Do you see any problems of abuse with those ideas?
Keith Law: Any system will be abused, but I like age-related free agency. You can’t do X years after being drafted because such a system would screw college guys – and as much as I counsel players to sign out of HS if the offer is good, plenty of great big leaguers weren’t good enough out of HS to get that money and needed college.

jaren: is luis urias a top talent at his position the next 5 years?
Keith Law: I would bet no.

Jeff: Amed Rosario is on fire – he finally finding his groove? Still crazy young
Keith Law: Still very young, making a lot of contact, wish he walked a little more but he’s not hacking away, and now he’s getting some better results on balls in play. I haven’t changed my projection that he’ll end up a star.

Josh Nelson: What are your thoughts about MLBPA hiring Bruce Meyer to be the Chief Negotiator (what a title)?
Keith Law: They’ve made a few major hires recently that signal to me that they intend to enter the next negotiations with a firmer negotiating stance. They did not sufficiently exercise their power two years ago. They need to regain some lost ground.

Drew: Are you familiar with the British punk band IDLES? Their new album, Joy as an Act of Resistance, is so damn good.
Keith Law: I feel like I’ve heard one of their songs, but I’ve put it on in the background now to check it out.

Marshall MN: Klaw, when you go to a new well reviewed coffee shop in a different city do you have a go to drink that you try as a point of comparison against other coffee houses? I know you are a light roast guy, is that your point of comparison?
Keith Law: My favorite coffee drink is a traditional macchiatto – a double shot of espresso topped with a little foamed milk. A pour-over would be a better gauge of a shop’s beans, but it’s also going to depend then on which specific beans you get; generally third-wave shops have their own specific blends for espresso that are more consistent, or, in the case of a place like Cartel in Phoenix, they find a single origin bean that they think will profile well as an espresso.

jaren: clevinger has looked like he’s moving into the top 15 or so starting pitchers as far as talent. would you agree? did you ever expect this from this kid? he’s been downright nasty in the second half
Keith Law: I would not agree.

romorr: Would you say the Oriole minor league pitchers, as a whole, had a promising year?
Keith Law: There’s been a lot of progress from their A-ball guys, which is where their most important pitching prospects were.

Marshall MN: What are your thoughts on the Twins handling of Buxton at the end of this year?
Keith Law: Completely disagree with it, and I think he should file a grievance – I think more players should fight these manipulations, because teams do it with impunity right now.

Rum Guy: Big fan of your music playlists, thx. I have a question about your equipment-when you’re listening to these music files, other than thru earbuds —- do you have floor speakers in your home & can u reveal what you own for home use?
Keith Law: I don’t own any music equipment like that.
Keith Law: OK, that’s about enough of that IDLES record. If I wanted to get yelled at I have other places I can go.

Jim: What kind of upside do you see for Jordan Groshans?
Keith Law: I could see an above-average regular if he finds more power – which I think would require a swing alteration as right now it’s a little flat. Good athlete with a great arm. I would probably bet that he’s a regular, but there’s more upside.

Justin: This year Ke’Bryan Hayes suddenly looks like a guy who can hit for a high average, play great defense, run, and hit for some power (all while being at least a little young for AA). What has to happen for him to become a top 25 (or better) type prospect? Add a little more power?
Keith Law: He was already 42 on my most recent list.

Carl: Can Baltimore salvage Chance Sisco or will he need a new manager & coaching staff?
Keith Law: I think he needs a new manager there or a change of scenery if Showalter returns.

jwp: Roughned Odor looks like he has a different approach at the plate. Do you think it sticks long term?
Keith Law: I think it does – i’ll be certain if he maintains it into next season. But I don’t think there are many examples of guys who see their BB% jump like this in their 20s and then lose it all.

EL: Could Chris Shaw benefit from more AAA time, or is he what he is at this point?
Keith Law: He’s a 4A guy for me.

JR: All these Kavanaugh hearings are doing is reinforcing what an awful person he is and how we shouldn’t want him on SCOTUS and yet he will be nominated anyways. Am I missing anything?
Keith Law: He’ll be confirmed anyways, yes, because nothing matters except packing the courts to overturn abortion rights, affirmative action laws, and maybe gay marriage.

Lois Sanborn: Hi Keith, thanks for all of your work! It always makes me happy to hear your thoughts on baseball and non-baseball topics alike. How would you project Alex Kirilloff’s game power going forward? I just looked up his spray chart from this season and noticed that he hit 11 of his 20 HRs to left or left-center, which was surprising to me.
Keith Law: I think he’s a plus hit plus power guy in a corner. Great prospect only limited by positional value.

Jimmy: Best Astros prospect that sees playing time in 2019?
Keith Law: I see no reason Whitley isn’t up next year.

Richard Van Norris: Have you watched Tim Anderson’s defense lately? Since mid May or so he has been exceptional. Is he the long term White Sox shortstop?
Keith Law: Was there a question about his defense or that he was their long-term shortstop? I really never gave that a second thought.

Jerry: Didn’t Josh James take off after getting treatment for sleep apnea? Do you see him as a legit MLB prospect? If so, as a SP or RP?
Keith Law: I believe that explanation is bullshit. More likely RP.

Nick L: True or False: This will be the best year of Javy Baez’s career.
Keith Law: False.

Jeff: Has Jose Peraza surprised you at all? Have the Reds found their shortstop for the next 5+ years?
Keith Law: No, I think they can and will do better. He’s probably not reaching 2 WAR this year.

JR: All yesterday had was: 1. Red Sox win game after being down 7-1, with a HR from a long time vet who played in minors all year hoping for a chance to get back. 2. Ohtani going 4-for-4 with 2 HRs after it was announced he needs TJ surgery. 3. Trevor Story hit 3 HRs, including one where’s falling down and one 505 feet. 4. Javy Baez making another amazing play on the basepaths. All in the midst of teams playing for playoff positions. All the people that say the game isn’t as good today as it used to be can please GTFO.
Keith Law: And yet the current headlines on MLB.com are: 1. Five craziest, most magical games of 2018. 2. Here’s what 2019 ‘super teams’ could look like. 3. Bregman channels Harden … not the beard. 4. On the bubble: How MLBers chew gum. Are you kidding me? All that crazy shit happens and the league itself is talking about chewing gum? I can’t even say ‘please like my sport’ if the league won’t back me up by promoting all this great stuff happening on the field.

Marshall MN: What level of competition do you consider Arizona Fall League…sort of Double A-ish?
Keith Law: Inconsistent, but in general below that unless you get a Whitley type on the mound.

Nick L: Roberta’s in Brooklyn was legit!
Keith Law: I wouldn’t steer you wrong.

Nick L: Who’s your favorite stand up comedian?
Keith Law: I really like the ones who don’t sexually harass or assault other people. But that’s just me.

Ray: to follow up on Joshua’s comment – I was recently in a room with my sister and father during a conversation they were having about a third person. My father asks, “is he black?” and my sister responds, “he is, but he doesn’t act black”. My head about exploded and I just left the room. I should have spoken up.
Keith Law: It’s hard to react correctly in the moment, at least in my experience. I told this story before, but years ago, I was at the Big 12 tournament in Oklahoma (of course), when a Texas fan asked me how the Aggies looked in football … but he put an ‘f’ before the word. I asked him to repeat himself twice, hoping he’d get it, before his wife grabbed his arm and told him to stop. I should have come back at him harder, but in the moment, I was so floored – it had truly been years since I’d heard that word or its other forms spoken at all – that I didn’t call him out directly. That was six years ago, I think, and I’m still disappointed.

Darren: In regards to David suggesting Rodgers plays 2B in Colorado, what do you think of Garrett Hampson?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s better than Rodgers or Story.

Lance: Nolan Gorman: Superstar? Above Average Regular? Just A Guy?
Keith Law: I’ll go with above-average regular with wide error bars around that prediction. It’s 80 raw.

Jim: German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Jon Gray, which one has the highest ceiling at this point?
Keith Law: Gray still has the most upside, Freeland is the best present pitcher.

Steve: Gausman has pitched a lot better for the Braves. Another example of the O’s failing to develop a prospect? Function of switching NL? Both? Too early to tell?
Keith Law: That one is squarely on the coaching staff.

Pat D: So the venerable River Ave. Blues has decided to shut down their comment section. I have mixed feelings. I made a lot of really good friends there, to the point where we’ve gone to several games together, but the comments had been getting steadily worse over the last few years, they couldn’t spend time moderating them properly, and apparently now someone was threatening the owners in some way. Totally justified for them to shut it down considering those circumstances, right?
Keith Law: Agreed, totally justified. I may do the same with the comments here at some point, unfortunately.

MikeM: Whats wrong with Luis Severino?
Keith Law: I don’t know if something is physically wrong but he’s visibly not the same and hitters are squaring him up way more often, like they did in 2016.

Dallas: Will Bobby Witt Jr.’s age effect his draft status or will pedigree trump/neutralize it?
Keith Law: His age will work against him, absolutely.

Darryl: Do you have an updated list for good Nashville eateries? Wife and I going for first time in 2 weeks and I want to hit a couple gems. Thanks in advance!
Keith Law: Nothing new since my last visit, I think.
Keith Law: or last post, I should say.

Tony: Do you think Rougned Odor has actually learned some plate discipline? I was completely blown away when I saw he had a .343 OBP
Keith Law: Career high in BB. 10 HBP might be misleading you a little, but yes, I think he has.

Biff: 1. Winker 2. Votto 3. Suarez 4. Gennett 5. Senzel – that lineup will score some runs eh?
Keith Law: I think so – should put a lot of guys on base, at least.

AGirlHasNoName: At what point can I just give up on society and just accept that chaos reigns, and we are all taking a ride on the good ship FUBAR? Is not caring who wrote the NYT op-ed, not being surprised at its content, mean I am already there? I have outrage fatigue maybe.
Keith Law: Yeah I couldn’t get worked up over the op ed … it was so self-congratulatory, and for what? If that’s what the guy is, then invoke the damn 25th already.

joe: If I liked Lush Life – R. Price, what else do you recommend?
Keith Law: His book Clockers is also pretty good.

Jax: Do you think Kershaw opts out after the season?
Keith Law: Yes, for sure.

Nate: You’ve been beating the drum on trading Inciarte for some time. What would be a reasonable return for a streaky Gold Glover?
Keith Law: Less than it would have been a year ago when I suggested it and was insulted eight ways to Sunday.

Tony: I know that Jose Quintana wasn’t exactly an ace with the White Sox, but is there anything you have seen with the Cubs that explains why he has been less effective? Most of the numbers seem similar, although his walks are up a little bit.
Keith Law: Fastball command has looked way off.

Lance: Is Jack Flaherty’s early success in St. Louis sustainable long term barring injury?
Keith Law: Yes. Always liked him over several of their other pitchers like Weaver or Hudson.

Marvin Miller: 4 year Free Agency, elimination of arbitration….the next CBA….take it to bank….
Keith Law: Would love to see it but owners will fight tooth and nail on that.

JT: The Rowdy Tellez circumstance is hard to hear about. Do you ever bury stories you know that would be exculpatory about poor performance? Does learning about his mother affect your rating of Tellez? (or earn him another look?)
Keith Law: It’s a very sad story, but he was never a good prospect, and I can’t let sentiment change my assessment of his tools or swing or other deficiencies.

Ridley Kemp: Keith, I mostly just wanted to thank you for pointing me towards “Why We Sleep”. It was more of an eye-opener for me than it probably should have been. I’m making a point of getting 8 hours of sleep a night and the difference in how I feel in the morning is enormous.

Also, if you’re ever in Austin again, you should check out a restaurant called Loro. It’s a joint venture by Tyson Cole (Uchi) and Aaron Franklin (you probably know his claim to fame), and unlike most supergroups, this one does not disappoint.
Keith Law: The real issue here is that I need a good reason to get back to Austin. All these Texas arms and they’re never from there.

Adam D.: Do you view the Giants system as one that could find itself in the top-10 or 15 in the next 18 months? Ramos, Canario, Bart and Luciano seem like the makings of a potentially impact set of players.
Keith Law: Extremely unlikely. I would guess I’m lower than you are on Bart or Ramos, too.

Steven : Are you a Bon Iver fan? If so have you listened to the Justin Vernon and Aaron Dessner collaborative album?
Keith Law: I’m not, and I didn’t like their new project, even with the baseball name: Big Red Machine.

Mighty Ox: Hi Keith! Does Andujar stay at 3rd base or is he destined for DH?
Keith Law: Third base.

addoeh: Aren’t we in a Constitutional crisis already with un-elected officials actively allowing or taking away which bills our failed leader signs? And the senior official (or officials) are worried about the 25th Amendment?
Keith Law: Yes … and one party does not care as long as they get what they want.

Draftnik: No question, just FYI Michael Lorenzen and Aaron Nola both had PRPs and avoided surgery (so far).
Keith Law: Thank you. I think there are many examples – but they all had relatively minor tears, not full tears.

Dr. Bob: Are all of the players on the field in the AFL prospects signed by MLB teams? Or do they have to sometimes fill out a roster with some college or extra players so that they can have full games?
Keith Law: Always MLB teams, although frankly I wouldn’t be mad if they allowed, say, an NPB or KBO player or two to pop in, maybe someone approaching free agency or whom the parent team wants to post.

cplo: I saw Luis Ortiz got the call up in Baltimore. Has he shown enough over his minor league career to prove he can stick as a starter?
Keith Law: Stuff yes, durability an open question.

Xavier: Is there a valid argument for someone other than Degrom winning Cy Young?
Keith Law: Yes, Nola and Scherzer are right there with him.

John: Has Lewis Thorpe put himself back on the top 100 radar this year with the better performance and being 2 years removed from TJ?
Keith Law: Not yet, not unless the stuff ticks up.

Bill: Should Machado go back to 3B or should he stay at SS?
Keith Law: Third base, where he’s plus. His little time at short hasn’t been promising.

mike sixel: It would be sad if comments went away, we (I) like the interaction……is it really that bad?
Keith Law: I have had to keep moderation on for two years now because of a very small number of abusive people (two, maybe three). One is pretty much a single comment away from me going to the police.

Matt: Honestly, I think if what Fred Wilpon reportedly wants, which is a GM that’s anti-analytics and also has no authority to overrule the owners, I’m out. Probably not forever, but they won’t be getting my money for a long time. Analytics or no, what the team desperately needs in a Prez of Baseball Ops, because Jeff has failed, and the organization reeks of disfunction.
Keith Law: I saw an article this week that listed way too many names, some of whom were good ones, some of whom were not (and really, can we not hire a GM who’s failed in multiple stops already, and give someone else a chance), but that said at the end that the Mets haven’t contacted anyone and no one really knows what they’re thinking. I believe Joel Sherman wrote it but I’m not 100%. But that last part is the lede: We’re all just guessing until they start calling to ask for permission.

Zac: What does Jacoby Jones have to hit to be a glove first everyday CF?
Keith Law: Dude is 26 with a .255 OBP in about 600 MLB PA. Time to let that one go.

Lucky Lindy: Speaking of players turning it around post-trade — shouldn’t people in Texas be fired with how Cole Hamels has improved since going to the Cubs?
Keith Law: I would at least have some questions for the pitching coach(es) about what might have gone wrong, and why the Cubs figured something out that quickly when we didn’t.

tomm: obviously predicting what kind of player a prospect will become is very difficult, especially when it comes to projecting hit/in game power tool. when it comes to pure speed, however, it would seem easier because its just timed and far less up to opinion. that being said, how did bader not get an 80 speed in the minors? Tied for second in the mlb statcast speed. did he get much faster?
Keith Law: He’s not an 80 runner now, but he also was nowhere close to this fast when he signed – I even talked to someone in STL recently who confirmed this.

John: The best part of the op-ed was the self own by an editor at the Federalist who claimed the founding fathers would be rolling over in their graves about the use of anonymity
Keith Law: That whole thread is worth checking out – one expert on the subject kept setting him straight, and the dude kept digging … and digging … and digging … like, my man, take the L already, you lost.

John: If I’m LA, I’m happy if Kershaw opts out. I may just be inclined to shake his hand, thank him, and not give him another 6 years and $180 million.
Keith Law: Easy to say, but he’s an iconic player for the Dodgers, and they’d have a lot of fans to appease if he leaves – plus he takes several wins of value with him that they can’t easily replace.

GP: Since you said it was too early to judge the Archer trade, Archer had a great outing and Glasnow had a disastrous one and it appears Meadows injured his hand. I just wanted to say that
Keith Law: Yeah maybe a month is too soon, i dunno

Grande Esteban: Why didn’t the Angels just tell Ohtani once he signed that he needed Tommy John surgery and he would start the season in the minors until he was healthy enough to come up, and if he didn’t do that, they’d just send him to the minors anyway to start the year? That would have gotten the surgery done right away, and also would have gotten them an extra year of service time.
Keith Law: He didn’t need the surgery right away, and you can’t just tell an employee to go have surgery.

Ben: Wander Franco an overall top 10 prospect to you?
Keith Law: He was #17 on my last update, and graduations alone may push him up a few spots.

Jake: Nick Pratto…is he the first half guy, the second half guy, or the last month guy?
Keith Law: He’s the overall season guy. I don’t like to get too worked up over 2nd half minor league splits, because over the course of a season, the best players in a league will get promoted, and be replaced by, in theory, inferior players from lower levels.

Jeff: Not calling you out or anything – Just having fun – but remember when your ESPN chats used to be JobaMania? Good times. You’ve been doing these chats a long time and I appreciate it.
Keith Law: Twelve years of Klawchats, in fact. My first one was July 2006, I think, maybe a month after I joined. May we all live another 12 years to argue over Joba’s large adult son.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all, as always, for your questions and for reading. I believe my next Insider column is my minor league player of the year piece, although I doubt there’s much suspense in the winner. Have a safe and fun weekend, everyone.

From a Low and Quiet Sea.

Irish writer Donal Ryan has received significant acclaim in his home country and Great Britain for his works to date, but relatively little attention here so far, although that might change with his latest book, From a Low and Quiet Sea, which was just long-listed for the Man Booker Prize and weaves together three narratives of men adrift in their worlds that is by turns harrowing, wry, and empathetic.

The novel, a scant 180 pages with a lot of white space within, unfurls in four parts, one for each protagonist and then a short final section that brings the three plot threads together. The first of the stories is the most powerful and feels the most timely: we meet Farouk, a Syrian doctor who senses that country’s civil war approaching the city where he lives with his wife and daughter and arranges with a smuggler to take them out of Syria to Europe, only to find that the smuggler has lied and put the three of them and dozens of others on a ramshackle boat that isn’t seaworthy and ultimately ends in tragedy. Farouk is then left to try to assimilate into a new country while bearing the weight of the tragedy that befell him and many of his countrymen, without a home to which he can return.

The next two stories are less gripping, although they will eventually connect with Farouk’s in powerful fashion in the final section. Lampy is a ne’er-do-well of sorts, a college-aged man with a job as a bus driver for local assisted living facilities, living with his mother and her father, with Lampy’s father unknown to him and seldom even discussed. John is nearing the end of his life and expressing remorse for so many of the actions of his younger years, including how many lives he ruined as a “lobbyist” (a fixer, really) and one man he killed by accident. Eventually these characters and a few adjacent ones intersect in part four, with deep consequences for most of them.

Ryan’s prose style is challenging, with meandering sentences that run on for half the page, reminiscent of Faulkner or Ryan’s contemporary Eimear McBride, but his scene-setting skills are remarkable if you can process all the information he’s throwing at you in these endless phrases. He’s at his best as a pure writer in Lampy’s section, explaining the chaos of Lampy’s home life and communicating his disorientation within his own life. Ryan often gives you the sense that you’re observing the action from a remote distance, or perhaps from some altitude, so while the action is clear, the images might be blurred around the edges, which establishes the inner confusion of the three primary characters – Farouk ripped from his normal life into a new country; Lampy uncertain of fundamental aspects of his identity; John grappling with his own mortality, unsure if any repentance will suffice for things he’s done.

That sense of distance and of the reader’s difficulty in fully observing the action before him is strongest in the final section, where Ryan connects the three stories in oblique fashion, enough so that I had to re-read several parts to be sure I had caught the intended connections Ryan had made between characters. You might piece one or two of them together earlier in the book, but I did not, and Ryan’s unannounced shifts in how he identifies certain characters was jarring.

However, Ryan has infused so much of the empathy he has for his creations into this book that even my momentary confusion at how he assembled the pieces in the fourth part couldn’t reduce my investment in the resolution – and that is From a Low and Quiet Sea‘s great strength. This is a literary work, aimed high in prose and complexity, but is still fundamentally an accessible and human work, a novel that is simultaneously timeless and very much a document of our time today.

Music update, August 2018.

I believe this is the longest monthly playlist of new music I’ve ever posted, running 30 songs and just shy of two hours, thanks in large part to a huge spate of new album releases in the last four weeks. Even at that I could have included more tracks and have more songs and albums I still want to check out, but the calendar had other ideas so I decided to call it a day and post this before October loomed. You can access the playlist directly here if you can’t see the widget below.

The Wombats — Bee-Sting. The Wombats put out a new album in February, a solid record but a little bit of a letdown after the amazing Glitterburg, so the appearance of this new single last week was both a big surprise and a huge boost to a month already replete with great new songs.

Thrice — Only Us. Thrice, featuring friend of the dish Riley Breckenridge on drums, will release its new album Palms on the 14th, with this the second very strong single already to appear from the record.

Art Brut — Wham! Bang! Pow! Let’s Rock Out!. I remember a reader (Bill S., I believe) recommending Art Brut to me about a decade ago, but at the time I found their sound a little too out there, almost deliberately non-musical in certain ways, including the vocals. This song seems written to address everything I didn’t like about their earlier stuff, and has a sort of Wombats/Arctic Monkeys vibe to the lyrics and music.

Nation of Language — Reality. This Brooklyn-based quartet appear to have fallen asleep in 1982 and just woken up without recognizing anything has changed in the world of music – and, as someone who came of age during that synth-heavy era of New Wave, I love it.

Broods — Peach. I adore Georgia Nott’s voice, so hearing her get autotuned up in the pre-chorus here is a bummer, but the hook in the chorus itself is tremendous and we do get to hear her sultry voice in its natural environment during the verses.

Ten Fé — Not Tonight. Ten Fé’s album Hit the Light was my #10 record of 2017, and they’re back now with more of the same ‘70s soft-rock sound just slightly updated with the technology of contemporary music.

Black Honey — Midnight. I might be the biggest Black Honey fan going; I think I’ve liked every single they’ve released so far over the last three years, and now we get their first full-length album, called Black Honey, on the 21st. This is on the poppier end for the group, but I’ve liked their stuff more when they keep this upbeat tempo.

Eric B. & Rakim — I Know You Got Soul ( The Double Trouble Remix ). I waffled a little on including this track; it’s a circa 1988 remix of the song I’ve named the greatest rap song of all time, and it’s not as if you could improve on perfection. But the remix is by Norman Cook, better known as Fatboy Slim, and Danny Poku, better known as D-Mob (“We Call It Acieed”), and backs up Rakim’s vocals with the music of the Jackson Five’s “ABC,” with Kool & the Gang’s “Funky Stuff” in the interludes. It works shockingly well.

Wild Nothing — Shallow Water. If you wanted Wild Nothing to revisit the sound of Nocturne, this track is for you.

Spirit Animal — World War IV. Spirit Animal’s album Born Yesterday is a strange mix of bold, almost bombastic rockers like this one and “The Truth,” and songs that seem like Twenty-One Pilots impressions. (I was going to say “bad Twenty-One Pilots impressions, but that seemed redundant.) If these guys stick to big, macho riffs in traditional rock sounds, they could be huge.

Foxing — Nearer My God. These St. Louis indie-rockers released their latest album, with this the title track and the best song I’ve heard from the record, on August 10th. Conor Murphy’s vocals really shine here as he hits notes I couldn’t hit if I took a football to the groin.

Drenge — Outside. I loved this British duo’s debut album, which took forever to show up in tHe U.S. even though they’d found some success in England, but thought they changed their sound too much for their follow-up record. This sounds more like their first LP – straight-up guitar and drum heavy rock with a little British snarl to it.

Alkaline Trio — Demon and Division. Alkaline Trio’s album Is This Thing Cursed? just dropped on Friday, the 31st, so I haven’t gotten into it yet, but this song, released a few weeks earlier as a single, is another strong power-pop (don’t call it “emo!”) single from Skiba & co.

Death Cab for Cutie — Northern Lights. Thank You for Today dropped on August 17th, with “Gold Rush” still my favorite off the record but this upbeat “Soul Meets Body”-ish track among my favorites from the rest.

Allie X — Science. Alexandra Hughes, who records as Allie X, covers a wide range within electronic indie-pop, but she has a knack for sweetly dark melodies, like this one on the third single from her upcoming album Super Sunset. If you like Sia’s music and vocal style, Allie X is the better version, without the commercial trappings or the wig.

St. Lucia — Bigger. I’m optimistic about St. Lucia’s upcoming third album, Hyperion, which is due out on the 21st, given how bouncy and fun the three singles have been – maybe not as impactful as the singles from his debut, but I think stronger than most of the material on 2016’s Matter other than “Dancing on Glass.”

YONAKA — Teach Me To Fight. I loved this British quartet with a feisty-voiced female lead singer’s track “Wouldn’t Wanna Be Ya” when it came out last year, and they’ve had a few singles in a similar post-punk, snarling vein, including this one, where Theresa Jarvis drops what should be an anthem for young feminists.

CLOVES — Hit Me Hard. CLOVES’s voice stunned me when I first heard her on “Frail Love,” a top ten song for me in 2015, but she was never going to find an audience just doing vocals and piano ballads, so a move into more pop territory was probably inevitable. I’m just glad she’s doing so with solid hooks and without surrendering any of her vocal power or the endearing way she articulates certain sounds.

Sarah Chernoff — You’re Free. Chernoff was the lead singer for the Superhumanoids, a sadly underappreciated dream-pop/electronica band that crafted gorgeous, textured music behind Chernoff’s soaring vocals. Her debut solo album was much more mellow, more in the style of torch songs than pop, but this new track splits the difference and I think provides the perfect platform for her vocal operatics. (I saw Superhumanoids live on their last tour, and met the band after the show. I can vouch for her singing prowess – this is exactly how she sounds in concert.)

Arkells — Relentless. These Canadian indie-rockers will drop their new album on October 19th, and this feels like it should be their breakout single here in the U.S., a danceable rock tune that’s easier than the preceding single “People’s Champ.” I just don’t understand why they used the keyboards from “La Macarena” in the background (sorry, you’ll never unhear this).

The Kooks — Kids. We got two new singles from the Kooks this month, this and “Chicken Bone,” with their new album, Let’s Go Sunshine, appearing on the 31st. I don’t think their sound has changed much at all, but I’m fine with that — Britpop itself may be dead but it’s not necessarily out of it as long as the Kooks are around.

Interpol — If You Really Love Nothing. Yet another album that appeared at the end of August (the 24th) that I still need to listen to, Marauder is Interpol’s sixth and so far has at least given us more hooks on its singles than El Pintor had on the final record.

Cullen Omori — Happiness Reigns. Omori, formerly of the Smith Westerns, just released his second solo album, The Diet, which I have seen compared to early Oasis but to me sounds a lot more like the aforementioned Kooks with a little Wild Nothing thrown in. This was my favorite track off the album.

Ovlov — The Best of You. Stoner rock with a Pinback vibe, most notable on this two-minute track off their latest album, TRU.

The Skull — Ravenswood. More doom metal from three former members of Trouble, still rocking the same Sabbath-ish vibe but with a crunchier, less metal guitar sound.

High On Fire — Electric Messiah. Sleep returned from a 19-year hiatus this spring with a new record, The Sciences, but front man Matt Pike didn’t ditch his primary band, High on Fire, whose music is hard and fast like ‘80s thrash or speed metal but with some stoner or sludge metal elements. This is the title track from their upcoming eighth album, due out October 5th.

Riverside — Vale of Tears. Polish progressive rock with a lot of Opeth to their sound with some shredding in the instrumental sections. Their new album Wasteland, their first since the death of founding guitarist Piotr Grudzi?ski, will drop on September 28th.

Voivod — Obsolete Beings. I’ve spelled out my concerns about Voivod’s new output before — it’s hard to accept anything without the late Denis D’Amour’s songwriting or guitar work as ‘real’ Voivod, and their forthcoming album The Wake (September 21st) will be their first record since 2006’s Katorz to exclude founding bassist Jean-Yves Thériault. But damn does this sound like peak Voivod circa Dimension Hatröss.

Omnium Gatherum — Refining Fire. Add one more album to the list of those that came out on August 31st that I need to listen to, Burning Cold, the latest record from this Finnish melodic death metal act. I did also like “Rest in Your Heart” from the same album, the music of which wouldn’t have been out of place on a pop-metal album in the late 80s with its huge synth lines and downtempo power-chord riffing.

Horrendous — The Idolater. I’ve been a big proponent of Horrendous, a Philly-based technical/progressive death metal band, even with their guttural, indecipherable vocals, because their music is intricate, experimental, and utterly fascinating. Their second album, 2014’s Ecdysis, was like nothing I’d ever heard before, and their follow-up, Anareta, wasn’t far behind. The first two tracks from their fourth album, Idol, which drops September 28th, are both absolute beasts of technical work, but this song feels like their songwriting has become more sophisticated since their last album. I could do without the blast beat, though.