The World As It Is.

The World As It Is: A Memoir of the Obama White House ended up a very different read than what the subtitle led me to believe it would be. Ben Rhodes, who was a senior adviser to Obama for all eight years of the latter’s tenure, mostly as Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications and Speechwriting, does give numerous first-person anecdotes from his time in the White House. The point of this book, however, seems to be much more about the toxic political and media environment that started just before Obama’s election with the “birther” hoax movement, escalated during Obama’s first term thanks to the likes of Sen. Mitch McConnell and Fox News, and eventually triumphed with the election of Donald Trump in 2016. No one book could really answer the “how” of Trump’s election(although racism was certainly a big factor), but Rhodes attempts to show historical trends that led to this point, including the no-win situations they faced with tough foreign policy decisions in Libya, Syria, and Iran, as well as the rise of online disinformation efforts spearheaded by the Russian government.

The foreign-policy decisions drive much of the book, as that was Rhodes’ focus anyway and several of those choices ended up becoming massive political issues and headaches for the Administration. Rhodes details why we didn’t intercede in Syria earlier, and why we still did very little even when we chose to get involved after evidence that the Syrians had used chemical weapons on their own people. One such reason was the opposition from Republicans who, at the same time, were decrying the rise of ISIS (Daesh) in the region – a group that emerged in the vacuum created by our failure to establish a successor government after we invaded Iraq and ousted Saddam Hussein. The buildup to the coalition that conducted airstrikes on Libyan forces – including us, but with European allies agreeing to take the lead – also gets a detailed treatment.

The Iran deal, on which President Trump recently reneged (which calls our reliability in international negotiations into question), gives Rhodes a chance to show how much back-channel work had to be done to convince enough Senators to agree to the deal despite well-funded opposition, much of it from donors and PACs sympathetic to Israel, and the vocal disapproval of Israel’s long-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. (As I write this, Netanyahu is embroiled in a corruption scandal that is threatening his position and his legacy.)

There’s a baseball connection in all of this as well, as Rhodes was one of the leaders of the covert effort to normalize relations between the United States and the communist regime in Cuba, which had broken off a half-century earlier. It’s the best part of the book as well, since Rhodes was in the room for so many discussions and can give snippets of dialogue between representatives of both sides, and even describe phone calls from Cuban authorities – including Raúl Castro – haranguing the President about the history of U.S. offenses against the Cuban government. The lengthy process resulted in the freedom of many political prisoners in Cuba, as well as the release of American Alan Gross, held there on (likely bogus) charges of espionage, although the regime’s grip on power remains too strong. And, of course, it all wrapped up in a state visit by Obama to Havana, where he took in a baseball game and appeared on ESPN.

Rhodes shows he has little respect remaining for the opposition after the obstructionist tactics they used to fight the Iran deal, to stymie the nomination of Merrick Garland, and to help defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016. He also details the rise of the disinformation industry during Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea and attempts to further infringe on Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty, as well as the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 by Russian insurgents there, for which Russia managed to evade any responsibility or blame. There’s some self-reproach in here – should anyone in the Obama Administration have seen Russia’s use of troll farms to sway world opinion as a threat to our own democracy? – although it’s more based in opinion than hard research or evidence.

Rhodes also describes some of the public attacks made against him, his presumed faith, his degree in creative writing (as in, he would be good at spinning fiction in speeches he wrote), and more, an environment that only has deteriorated further in the last two years. When I posted a picture of a quote in the book to my Instagram, someone responded that he was “pretty sure Ben Rhodes is also the most incompetent senior level administration official in the last 100 years.” I really can’t speak to Rhodes’ competence – although, really, with Ringling Bros. staffing the current administration, I’m not sure how this could be true – but I think it speaks more to the incomplete and likely inaccurate public depiction of a man whose actual function and performance were mostly hidden from view. Rhodes’ version of events is his perspective, of course, and perhaps the truth is that he did some parts of his job well and others not so well. That message and the toxic political culture into which this book was published overshadow any memoir-ish aspects of Rhodes’ book.

Next up: Connie Willis’ Terra Incognita, a collection of three of her novellas, including the Hugo-nominated Remake.

Klawchat 11/8/18.

Keith Law: Hang a sign upon the door. Klawchat.

Chris: This Mets GM hire looks dumber and dumber already. Future of the team aside, the fact that existing agents like Boras are wary upfront of dealing with Van Wagenen on any level should’ve made this a non-starter. Bloom or Ng would’ve been great hires.
Keith Law: Boras is wary of dealing with BVW, but I don’t know that any other agents are. I don’t want to generalize from one guy’s comments here. I thought Bloom would have been a great hire, yes.

Bernie: Should the Yankees be looking at Daniel Murphy to fill their 1B/2B issue? Gleyber at SS until Didi is ready to come back then Gleyber to 2B and Murphy to 1B.
Keith Law: No, because Murphy can’t really play second base.

Briggs: KLAW, thanks for the chat as always. I’ve recently been trying to listen to more science focused books on Audible. I’m particularly interested in space/astrophysics and other things in that vein. Do you have any recommendations for books which are informative but accessible?
Keith Law: Einstein’s Cosmos, Spooky Action at a Distance, Uncertainty (David Lindley) all might fit what you’re looking for and I listened to those as audiobooks.

Jon: Keith, thoughts on Stir Candelario’s upside please? Last time I saw scores he was 50 Hit tool and 60 PWR. About right? Thank you in advance for the answer.
Keith Law: I never gave him those scores nor would I.

addoeh: Who are you, who are so wise in the ways of science?
Keith Law: I am Arthur, King of Elwood City.

Ben: I want to learn to make really good homemade pizza. Any books you would recommend on the topic?
Keith Law: The dough I make is from Peter Reinhart’s Bread Baker’s Apprentice, and it’s incredible for making very thin Neapolitan-style crusts. There’s a new pizza book out from Marc Vetri that I’m hoping to pick up to build on that. Of course I need a better oven to really step up my game, but I can turn out decent pizzas by cooking in my regular oven at 500 degrees for six minutes, using a pizza stone set on the oven floor.

Chris: Will Toffey have any value? Seems like a super-sub candidate who can hit righties.
Keith Law: Not to me. I don’t think there’s any hit value there at all.

Joe: I feel the Padres best, most well rounded outfield going forward is Myers, Margot and Cordero. What kind of value would Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe have on the trade market?
Keith Law: Both are essentially extra outfielders. That’s not much value in and of itself but 1) in a package they would both add something because they’re cheap with years of control and 2) it’s always possible another team looks at one or the other and sees a regular.

Kevin: Do you see the White Sox as making reasonable offers to Machado and/or Harper? I’d love to see it, but it’s not in their DNA. As a Sox fan, hopefully I’m wrong.
Keith Law: It would fit, given how close their young talent is, but I would be surprised.

GS(Athens): I’m curious about Royce Lewis sticking at SS. Are there some tangible, concrete skills he has shown improvement on and where would you see his ceiling as a defender there if everything goes right? Also, just moved to Athens, GA and tried Five & Ten. Acheson isn’t in the kitchen anymore of course but it’s still quite tasty!
Keith Law: No, I’m still a skeptic on him at short.

Bmosc: It truly amazes me how many people either don’t care that our President is completely devoid of integrity and about as low character as you can get, or, worse yet, celebrate those facts. I don’t think our country has been this divided in a long time, and it’s virtually impossible to have a rational political discussion anymore.
Keith Law: The White House has been circulating a fake video of yesterday’s press conference, and their pals in state media are further promulgating it. If you’re okay with that, you’re part of the problem.

TD: I’ve been down on Clint Frazier for awhile and wonder what your thoughts were on him and his trade value? To me h is upside is .250 with 20 homers.
Keith Law: Those two numbers don’t give much of a picture. I think he’s a sub-.300 OBP guy even if fully healthy, and while he has 30+ homer power I’m not sure he hits enough to get to it. A .280-.290 OBP with a low .400s slug in a left fielder is probably not a regular. He has to hit for a really high average to make this work. He has the bat speed to do so, but hasn’t shown the approach yet.

Cole: What do you think about the A’s essentially buying 2 lottery tickets in the first round of the past 2 first rounds (Beck and Murray)? The argument is that these are the high ceiling players that they ordinarily wouldn’t be able to afford in the open market? Is this a good strategy?
Keith Law: Good strategy if you’re choosing the right players. Beck was more of a fit for me than murray – and I do like Murray for what he is, but he’s 21 already and busy trying not to get his brains scrambled this fall.

Moe Mentum: Best biography you’ve ever read? How about autobiography?
Keith Law: Best memoir (is that the same as an autobio?) is probably Gabriel García Márquez’s Living to Tell the Tale. Simon Garfield’s Mauve comes to mind for best biography. The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks is biography-adjacent and is also an incredible read.

TREY: Do you see any other priorities for Cubs this offseason? Or is health, Hamels, and 1 or 2 elite relievers enough for deep postseason? I’m lukewarm on current OF and think they need some upgrades.
Keith Law: If they can add Machado or Harper, they should, even though it would create some temporary surplus (which they could use to add relief help). I think they’re a playoff team without that, but can and should try to improve beyond what they are.

Ken (Cleveland): am I crazy to think that the Yankees should avoid a big bat (especially if it costs us Miggy or Justus) and just start the season – Stanton/Hicks/Judge, Sanchez at C, Voit at IB, and Bird as my DH and see what we have
Keith Law: Yeah, I’d say that’s a bit overly optimistic, especially with Sanchez having shoulder surgery and the other two lacking any track record.

Arnold: Is Farhan Zaidi the right choice to remake the Giants or do we need to wait and see who brings in as GM before making that determination?
Keith Law: Great choice. Whoever he brings in as GM will be there to help execute Zaidi’s vision for baseball ops, which I think will be more analytics focused but not to the exclusion of traditional scouting.

xxx(yyy): any date night recipe suggestions to go with pan roasted pork chop?
Keith Law: Pork of any kind goes really well with polenta.

John Olerud: As an Ms fan, may I get your valued opinion on the Zunino trade? Does it seem reasonable? Completely misguided? Or just meh? For Ms fans, this trade seems important in helping to gauge Dipoto’s potential abilities in spearheading what is now a confirmed rebuild. Yes, he’s so far been dubbed “Trader Jerry”, mostly for sacrificing minor-league talent in a last-ditch effort to win. But is this just because of the mandate he had in the first part of his tenure? And do you think he and his team can successfully change course?
Keith Law: Just meh. Backup catcher for fourth outfielder. Some lesser prospects changing hands – Fraley’s probably a fourth outfielder himself, Plassmeyer maybe a fifth starter, threw a tick harder in short stints this summer than as a starter in college.

Nick: Moving forward, would you rather have Albies or Urias?
Keith Law: Albies.

Ben: Re: Boras’ comments about the draft rewarding systematic losing. If a draft is necessary (I don’t see how the owners would ever get rid of it). Why not have the number one pick go to the team with the best record that missed the playoffs, then go down by record from there, with the 10 playoff teams being the last 10 picks. Seems like this would discourage tanking, increase competitive balance, and reward teams that make an effort, but just miss out on the playoffs. Then, instead of tanking for the first pick, teams will need to give full effort to win the first pick. MLB could even market it as another “race” to watch at the end of the season. Seems like it would open up the free agent market too, since more teams have something to play for.
Keith Law: Changing the structure of the draft could improve it but won’t solve the fundamental problem that it screws the players, especially the best players in any draft class.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: I hope you don’t mind answering this, but I know you’re open about your anxiety stuff. I got help about three years ago and I’ve been mostly stable except for a few minor blips here and there. But when I’m stable, I feel like I’m not the same person and I’m living in an altered world that I’m not sure I like. Did you experience something similar?
Keith Law: You may need more time to be in your stable periods to get used to the feeling. I do know what you mean, and yes, the world feels very different when I’m in a good place. It can be weird to have that constant hum of anxiety go silent.

Bruce: What are your thoughts on Jazz Chisholm? Is he a top 100 GUY?
Keith Law: I think he’s a potential superstar.

Allan: Would it make sense to ever make a list of “players who lost their rookie eligibility”, or would the sample be so small that you’d just tell people to refer to your pre-season rankings?
Keith Law: You have it exactly right. I wouldn’t change any of those unless we saw something physically or mechanically new with the players.

Larry: Austin Riley and Soroka get it done for Realmuto?
Keith Law: Highly doubt that.

Jordan: Hey Keith, which team do you feel should go after Realmuto the hardest this winter?
Keith Law: I don’t think any contender has a greater need for him than the Nats.

THE Average Sports Fan: Any hope for Anthony Alford?
Keith Law: Sure, there’s hope. It’s just getting late.

Jason: If you are ignorant to all candidates, is it better to vote straight ticket or not vote? I unfortunately did not make the time to research all of the candidates and elected not to vote because I was uneducated. Did I make the right decision? I know I’m wrong for not paying attention to the candidates.
Keith Law: Does anyone research every single downballot candidate? I had some very local elections here where the Democrat ran unopposed or had only a third-party opponent. Should I have abstained, even though I would say I knew nothing about the candidates beyond that they never did anything so awful that I heard about them? I’d say no. Make sure you’re not voting for a Nazi, or an embezzler, or something like that.

Hank: Can you give us some background on Mike Fast? Seems like a lot of excitement about Atlanta hiring him, but I don’t know much about him.
Keith Law: One of the first people to bring out research on pitch framing – to measure it and show its effects were real and sustainable. Great hire.

Bearry: The Rays have their catcher, but still have some big holes to fill and prospects to deal. Think they can pull in Donaldson and/or trade for a TOR guy like Carrasco/Kluber/Gray?
Keith Law: I’m confused – you said the Rays, and then you’re talking about expensive players.

Danielectomy: Which of the Jays best prospects do you see winding up impact players?
Keith Law: Vlad, Bo, and if healthy Pearson has a shot.

Matt: As an Astros fan, should I be worried about the departures of Mejdal and Fast? Any word on why they left? Career opportunities? Luhnow? The Osuna trade?
Keith Law: I think the team is worse off for their departures, yes.

Deke: When I used to bartend, there was a regular there who was a real jerk. Saw him on a political ad for a Trump-supporting House candidate (Andy Barr) and posted about it on FB. A friend who still bartends there said that was dirty play, calling him out publicly. Fair or foul?
Keith Law: If you don’t work there any more, I’m not sure what you did wrong. Had you worked there, yeah, that could be a problem for your employer.

Jay: The Cardinals seem to be in a period of stagnation. Do you subscribe to the notion a front office can go stale over a long period of time or is that for lack of a better term, “BS”?
Keith Law: I think that’s BS. The team is pretty good. Their biggest problem seems to be that they’re very good all over the diamond and thus don’t have one spot where a huge upgrade is simple and accessible to them.

Jon: Can Baez repeat his 2018 performance or will it be downhill?
Keith Law: I think he can do this again. The question I have is whether he can ever be more – you know, drawing a walk more than once a month.

Joe: Braves are probably going to have to move one of Riley, Pache, and Waters. Will you rank in order of which one is most to least likely to be traded?
Keith Law: I don’t agree with the premise that they “have to move” any of them.

section 34: Do you find baseball more boring than in the past? I do. I know the changes in offensive approach are rational for each individual hitter. But I DVR games: I started doing it so I could skip commercials, but now I hit the 30-second-fast-forward button a lot in between pitches. Are you also finding baseball to have become too slow?
Keith Law: I think there are too many long commercial breaks. We don’t need two-plus minutes of commercials for every pitching change. The game itself is mostly fine although I’d prefer more balls put in play and fewer strikeouts. But the long mid-inning commercial breaks are more damaging to the product.

RSO: Does Andujar, Clint Frazier and Chance Adams get it done for Kluber for the Yanks?
Keith Law: Andujar and two decidedly second- or third-tier prospects? Come on.

Steve: A suggestion for those reading these chats on a web browser (at least Firefox): right-click in the chat window, select “this frame” and then “open frame in new tab” or “open frame in new window”. Instead of the chat being confined to a box in the middle of the page, the chat itself now takes the full tab, is easier to read and allows more of the chat to be displayed on the screen.
Keith Law: Thanks!

B Mand: I have seen a lot of conflicting reports on Dalbec and what the future holds for him. Am I wrong for thinking his skill set is similar to Gallo, maybe with a slightly better glove?
Keith Law: He’s not Gallo. Gallo has more power, and better pitch recognition. Dalbec can defend and really throw, but his ability to pick up spin is not where it needs to be to project him as a regular.

Jeff: Why was the Japanese BCG vaccine recalled in Seoul? I thought vaccines were 100 percent safe?
Keith Law: Because of a manufacturing issue, not anything with the vaccine itself. And the vaccines were still safe – they contained more arsenic than Korean regulations recommended, but still less than 3% of the daily maximum intake considered safe. As for “100 percent safe,” nothing is 100% safe. Advil isn’t. Coffee isn’t. Most vitamins aren’t. Vaccines are safe, in that the risk of adverse effects is extremely small, and most of those adverse effects are themselves trivial.
Keith Law: Good troll job, though, dumbass. Go back to remedial biology.

gavin: Your thoughts for both Tyler O’Neill and Alex Verdugo next season? I’m sure situation plays into this, but do you still believe in both?
Keith Law: Never been a big O’Neill fan; I see too much dead-pull in the swing and approach and a below-average fielder. Verdugo I like but he has no place to play.

mike : My issue with a pizza stone is that the oven has to be on so long, that I feel like I’m wasting power/money……you ever feel that?
Keith Law: No, although most books will recommend heating up the oven for an hour or more, I often find the stone hits temperature sooner than that (an infrared thermometer helps you know).

Austin: There’s a restaurant I follow on Twitter that is misogynistic and awful to people there. Like one giant troll. But there food is BOMB and every time I’ve been there I’ve never seen them treat customers unkind. Should I boycott this place based on their social media presence even though I’ve never seen them actually portrayed like that in real life?
Keith Law: So maybe it’s just that one person running the account? I’d ask at the restaurant.

Bill: Dylan Cease – starter or releiver?
Keith Law: Starter. If he’s healthy at all, he’s very clearly a starter.

Mike: Keller – if I remember you are concerned about a 3rd pitch and he may be destined for bullpen. But what about Paddack and Bryse Wilson? 2 or 3 starter upside?
Keith Law: All three project as starters, but yes, Keller needs a better changeup. Paddack can definitely start without a better breaking ball but it limits his ceiling.

Jax: Will Benson still a quality prospect in your book? I understand his floor is quite low but he seems to have tantalizing upside.
Keith Law: I don’t know what “quality prospect” might mean to you. I am not optimistic about his chances right now.

Jordan: Have the Twins given up on Buxton? If so, I’d love to see some team trade for him and give him 500 PA next season.
Keith Law: I don’t think so. I thought Baldelli might be the ideal manager for him since their on-field skill sets are similar.

Dan: If you’re the Giants, does a 7-10 year contract for Bryce Harper make any sense even with their apparent rebuild in place? Can he be part of the next Even-Year magic?
Keith Law: No, it makes little to no sense to me.

Colin: Keith – can you ease my long-term concerns about Soroka? He looked damn good this season before the injury.
Keith Law: Stuff looked great. Tough arm action that puts stress on the shoulder. Still like him but the risk of further injury is high.

Pat: Kang has claimed he stopped drinking entirely. Doesnt that change your outlook on him?
Keith Law: No.

Big Sister: Does Ronaldo Hernandez stay at catcher? Do you like him or William Contreras better?
Keith Law: I think Hernandez has the better bat and Contreras the better defensive profile. I have Hernandez staying at catcher with some work.

Boa T.: Did Klaw really reference The System in his open? Would the Angels be better served moving Cozart to second and signing Moustakas or someone similar to play 3rd?
Keith Law: I did indeed. Moustakas isn’t any upgrade for them. Better to sign or trade for a second baseman.

Stephen: When do you think Luis Robert makes his appearance in Chicago? We thinking… I don’t know, mid April 2020?
Keith Law: Maybe? Guy has to show he can stay healthy for 20 minutes first.

Dan: Thoughts on the Farhan Zaidi signing? Surprised at all that the Giants went with such a forward-thinking President/GM?
Keith Law: I’m not surprised.

Bob Pollard: The whole “Cubs have no money” thing…do you think this is real or a Theo smokescreen for him to fly under the radar? What do you think they end up doing/what should they do?
Keith Law: The Cubs have plenty of money. The Ricketts may choose not to spend it, but they have it.

Shawn: Do you continue to use any non-drug therapies or techniques for your anxiety? What did you use in the past?
Keith Law: Meditation, exercise, lot of ‘self-care’ techniques including positive sensory stimuli – literally, finding things that calm you or provoke positive reactions in your brain for any or all of your five senses.

Todd: Could Michael Bloomberg beat Trump in 2020? Thoughts on him as a candidate?
Keith Law: I burn incense in my kitchen sometimes for that reason, mostly because baking cookies all day long is not the greatest idea for my health.
Keith Law: Oh god please no. Bloomberg is the last thing we need.

Mat Ji: Hi Keith, What do you make of Bill James’ comments and the backlash he has received?
Keith Law: I thought his comments were wrong and excessively derisive towards players (and labor in general). He’s affiliated with an MLB team, too, which makes it worse.

Pat: Mallex hit .296/.367/.406, 3.4 fWAR. Is he really just a 4th OF?
Keith Law: Yes. Dude had never had a 1-WAR season before then.

Chad: I’ve head Kyle Tucker often get compared to Christian Yelich. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I don’t see how much they have in common other than both being really good prospects. I thought Yelich was farther away from his power than Tucker is now.

Chad: Which Braves arm – Kyle Wright, Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, Touki Touissant, – do you like best long-term?
Keith Law: Touki has the highest upside.

Chris: Do you think the Red Sox moved Darwinson Hernandez to the bullpen to limit his innings, or do they not think he can start in the majors?
Keith Law: Pretty sure it was to limit his innings. I would absolutely keep him as a starter for now.

Bmosc: Klaw, I saw you mention elsewhere (perhaps another chat) that Nashville was one of your favorite Minor League culinary stops. Any favorite restaurants?
Keith Law: In no particular order: Husk, Rolf & Daughters, City House, Catbird Seat, Cochon Butcher, Kuchnia & Keller, Two Ten Jack, Mas Tacos.

Michael Conforto: Why do people vote overwhelmingly in support of progressive ballot measures but not for progressive candidates? Is it just a messaging issue? Is being labeled a Democrat damaging beyond repair to some?
Keith Law: Could be. Not sure anyone knows the answer to that, since it would depend on truthful answers to polls or surveys.

Beau: Is Buddy’s AFL production a SSS or has he made adjustments since struggling in AA?
Keith Law: Buddy Reed? SSS in a hitter’s environment. Swing is still the same (not good). Which reminds me, I was accused by a Padres blog of “refusing to admit” he was better, which is always hilarious to me.

Dan: Do you believe Derek Rodriguez is a legit mid-rotation starter or more back-end? Either way I’m happy to have found a useful pitcher for essentially nothing.
Keith Law: Back-end. Very lucky on the ERA front.

Dale: Why were the A’s experimenting with Matt Olson in RF? And was that part of reason you weren’t sold on his 1B defense.
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s that good a defender at first, period. Gold Gloves are stupid.

Steve: ETA on when the O’s hire a new GM?
Keith Law: Sometime before the All-Star Break.

John: Re pizza, why do you need a better oven? What’s the ideal temp?
Keith Law: For Neapolitan-style pizza, probably 800+.

Pat: Apparently Carter Kieboom showed good range and arm at SS in the AFL. Any chance he can stay on the position?
Keith Law: I saw him there, and no, he did not. Second base for me.

mike : I find the time between pitches to be the issue for me, more than the commercial breaks. The NFL can make it look like there is action, thru replay. MLB replay is shorter, so it is harder to fake action.
Keith Law: There’s a fatigue recovery benefit to pitchers taking more seconds between pitches, which is why I oppose a pitch clock and prefer cutting those ad breaks.

Hank: Ian Anderson is the pitcher Alex Anthopoulos should be least willing to trade. True or false?
Keith Law: Neither true nor false. You can make that case for Anderson, or for Touki, or even for Wilson.

Tom: Was Patrick Mahomes ever considered a prospect?
Keith Law: Sort of. I know he did some baseball stuff but it was so clear he was headed for football that I don’t think he was seriously scouted his senior year. It sounds like he made the right choice.

Jiimbo: What are your thoughts on Yusei Kikuchi? At best #2 Starter?
Keith Law: I ranked him in the free agent rankings.

section 34: Since you write so often on vaccines — I’m with you, I’m very pro-vaccine — I wonder if you have a theory on why very liberal people who claim to care about community don’t respect the concept of herd immunity.
Keith Law: Chemophobia/appeal to nature fallacy plus Dunning-Kruger syndrome (the more education you have, the more liberal you are likely to be, but then you might overestimate your knowledge in other subject areas).

Amir: Would Matt Harvey be a good fit on the Athletics on like a 1 year pillow deal? Feel like it could be a good situation for both the player and team.
Keith Law: Yep, love that idea, actually. Good call.

Santos: To Jeff the Vaccine Troll: Took me 2 seconds to google, “It didn’t immediately announce the decision as it found that the level of arsenic concentration is minimal without the potential to cause harm.

The ministry’s research showed that arsenic was from the heated glass bottle that contained the BCG vaccine.”
Keith Law: Jeff the vaccine troll is indeed just a troll. I usually ignore him, but that bullshit was worth swatting down.

Seth: Did you see Melvin Adon in the AFL? Is he more than a guy who just throws really hard?
Keith Law: I didn’t see him, talked to two guys who did (plus Longenhagen), sounds like a guy who throws really hard and we’re not sure what else.

Josh: what does Evan White look like at the MLB level? I’m worried he’s a AAA/MLB swing man
Keith Law: The 1b? Everyday player.

Dansbae: Have you given up Dansby Swanson? Looks like he isn’t a regular.
Keith Law: I have not. Still think he’ll be a regular.

HugoZ: Do you think that Casey Mize feels “screwed” after receiving 7.5 million?
Keith Law: If he would have received $10 million as a free agent – which is likely – then yes, he should feel screwed. I don’t know him at all so I am not sure of his actual feelings. I for one would be very frustrated if I were only allowed to negotiate with ESPN when my contract is up even though there might be other companies willing to bid on my services.

JR: Thoughts on how the mid-term elections turned out? I’m happy to see Dems take back the house, but the Rs gain ground in the Senate. Anything we can read into this on the chances of 45 getting voted out in 2020??
Keith Law: The Senate seats up for election this year were not representative of the body (or country) as a whole – there were few chances for the Democrats to flip them and retake the chamber. That said, I don’t think projections two years out are ever very useful in politics. Stuff changes fast.

Mitten: I’d prefer the Cubs just DFA/non-tender Russell. Just seems like the right thing to do/message to send. Giving lip service to wanting to ‘help him’, which is great. But to me, he doesn’t need to be part of the organization for that to happen.
Keith Law: I would too, but they traded for Chapman, so I doubt they just walk away from whatever value might remain in Russell.

Mike: Are you going to post your Thanksgiving menu this year? I have to contribute a dish myself and was hoping to “borrow” one of your dishes.
Keith Law: I only posted that on Thanksgiving day in the past; not sure if I do that this year since I’m not cooking for a crowd.

Ryan: If you were running the Cards would you use Reyes as a 2-3 inning reliever with multiple days off in between appearances
Keith Law: Yes, assuming he can handle that. Starting him seems well off in the future now.

Barry: How about the Angels as a landing spot for Harper? It would show Trout they are committed long term to winning and Harper could slide into the occasional DH role to better keep him fresh over the course of the contract.
Keith Law: Sure, if they’re willing to jettison Pujols.

Jeffrey: Beto runs in 2020 at this point.
Keith Law: He’ll probably run. Booker might run. Warren, Harris, and probably some others we don’t really know very well yet. And then we’ll find out some stuff about each of them that isn’t very flattering and people will freak out over details that don’t matter and gloss over negative things that should matter and I’m already losing my patience with this.

Jon: FYI: Bill James is correct. If you took every Mike Trout or Mookie off the field right now they will be replaced with other players and the game goes on; period.
Keith Law: FYI: No, he’s not, and it wouldn’t. Just look back at the replacement NFL players from ’87.

Wes: If Brendan McKay switches to pitching only, does he reach the majors sometime in 2019? Still have number 2 ceiling?
Keith Law: Yes, and yes.

JR: Thoughts on Cashman being so direct in that he needs to trade Gray? Obviously, it’s the best move for both sides, but does being so public about it decrease his value?
Keith Law: I appreciate his candor. We all know it’s true. Denying it just forces him to lie to everyone.

Bryan (Montclair, NJ): Shocker – Mets are not going after Harper or Machado. With that said, can you envision a more moderately priced road that BVM can take to get this team to contention in 2019?
Keith Law: Yes, but it would require 1) steps forward from a few young players and 2) going all-in on short-term fixes that cost the team in the long term.

Aaron: There is clearly a discrepancy in the way you and some other outlets value the jays farm system. I tend to side with your ranking of the system mainly because outside Vlad, bo and Pearson there is just not a lot of upside. There are a lot of guys who seem to project as average to below average regulars. Is that essentially your take on their prospect pool?
Keith Law: That is almost precisely how I see their system. Guys like Biggio, Smith, Reid-Foley, Alford, Tellez – the team may rate them highly but I’m offering you a more balanced view that reflects what I’ve seen and what other teams think.

Sam: So an administration that derides “Fake News” just used a doctored video from InfoWars as justification to revoke a reporters WH access. Cool.
Keith Law: Yep. America in 2018.

xxx(yyy): what is your favorite 80 grade cooking item/tool in your kitchen these days? What about an 80 grade technique you use?
Keith Law: My Japanese santoku. Technique? Not sure. I cook lots of ways all the time.

Jennyfer: Any hope that the Dems get better at messaging? Trump is the fucking worst and so is most of the GOP, but they somehow get the “liberal” media to talk about e-mails and a caravan instead of all of the Trump corruption and access to health care.
Keith Law: The Democrats as a party have been poorly run for a decade or more. Losing in 2004 was kind of the first sign and yet the leadership continues to offer more of the same.

Bryan (Montclair, NJ): Keith, I really appreciate you sharing so much about your issues with anxiety. I struggle lately with focusing on specific tasks for long periods of time. I contribute a lot of it to taking on more responsibility (professionally and family wise). Is there anything that you’ve done to increase your ability to focus?
Keith Law: If you read about the flow state, you may find some of those techniques helpful. I recently reviewed a book called Deep Work that also offers good, functional tips.

Dazed and Confused: Bloomberg may not be good, but how can you get worse than Donald?
Keith Law: I hate that idea. We shouldn’t just settle for “not Trump.” There are real, major problems facing our country and our planet – climate change, overpopulation, sectarian violence, terrorism, pandemic risks. health care, etc. It’d be nice to find a leader with real ideas and the capability to execute them.

Andy: Travis Lee and Matt White were free agents due to a loophole in 1996. They BOTH received over $10 million.
Keith Law: Yep. And I think MLB revenues have gone up a tad since then.

Jared: Is Brandon Woodruff a starter for you? If so, does he project as middle of rotation or back end?
Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter.

Chris: Has Julio Urias already exceeded your expectations in his comeback, even if long term his outlook is greatly reduced?
Keith Law: No. I had no expectations for him on the field.

Jared: Would a Schoop for Sonny Gray swap make sense? Both have been good in past, but struggled last year. Change of scenery for both?
Keith Law: I like that idea.

section 34: Klaw, we were agreeing so nicely until you disparaged Matt Olson’s defense. His B-R range factor was easily the best in the AL at 1B, well ahead of the second-best semi-regular 1B (Ronald Guzman). B-R had him worth 0.8 dWAR. So far as I can tell he was the ONLY AL 1B with positive dWAR in 2018. And, not that it counts, but he looks smooth doing it. Will you re-evaluate your evaluation?
Keith Law: I don’t find defensive metrics useful for evaluating 1b defense and never have. So, no, I won’t.

Felix: Joe Biden is currently the frontrunner to be the Dem nominee in 2020. A safe choice, but just another tired old white guy who will likely be nominated because the rest of the current interested Dems is a minefield.
Keith Law: And how often is the front-runner 24 months out the actual candidate? I’d guess less than half the time. Can I bet somewhere on it not being Biden?

Drew: I’ve battled anxiety my entire life but I don’t think I ever really realized it until I turned 40. Makes me feel a little dumb when you step back and understand how this giant elephant in your brain could sit there an got unnoticed for most of my life. What was your first step in getting treatment? As in, do you just google “anxiety doctor” or did you find a specific type of clinic? I got some Xanax but kind of hate it as a treatment. I get anxious at work more than anywhere else, I can’t be bogged down with drugs. Thanks.
Keith Law: Started with my primary care doctor and then got in to see a therapist shortly afterwards.

Chris: I know you have an interest in languages. Have you ever used Duolingo? Any other tool? Thoughts?
Keith Law: I have used it. It’s fun, but I don’t think it really teaches the language, just some vocabulary.

Jerald: Overpopulation has always been a problem that I think is glossed over too much. How can we deal with it. Is it as simple as providing wide spread birth control in the 3rd world in an attempt to slow things down in those areas until infrastructure can be developed to support their current populations?
Keith Law: Increasing access to birth control would help – but so does empowering women around the world. Women who have the opportunity to work and earn income also end up with greater reproductive choice, and thus have fewer kids. Regardless, however, we have to find a way to feed 8-9 billion people, and provide them with clean water, and stop warming the planet. It’s not small, but with one party denying climate change even exists, we’re not close to working on a solution.

Mick: Any Japanese stars coming to MLB in the near future that approach Ohtani’s talent?
Keith Law: Not that I’m aware of. MLB regulars, yes, potential stars I don’t think so.

Josh: Seems like so many teams are tanking/rebuilding next year in the AL. Could we have 4 teams 100+ wins in the AL alone?
Keith Law: I hope not. Some other team – the White Sox are really in prime position – has to see the opportunity to make a big move and pounce. They could be a 90-win team this year with realistic improvement from young players already there and the right acquisitions from outside.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you as always for all of your questions. Next week’s chat will likely be Friday rather than Thursday due to travel but I will make an announcement if it’s sooner. Enjoy your weekends and thanks to everyone who voted for science and reason this past Tuesday.

First Man.

First Man reunites director Damien Chazelle and Ryan Gosling, who worked together two years ago on La La Land, in a different sort of movie, this time a serious biopic that deals with the biggest themes possible – life, death, and man’s search for meaning. Ostensibly a biography of Neil Armstrong from the death of his young daughter from cancer to his landing on the moon, First Man is much more a story of grief and coping, or not coping, and as a result less insightful as any sort of document of the man himself.

Gosling plays Armstrong, whom we first meet as an engineer and Navy pilot whose two-year-old daughter Karen is seriously ill with a brain tumor that will claim her life (via daughter) very early in the film, after which Armstrong shows the only real emotion he will display anywhere during the course of the movie. The story follows him through his entry into the space program, flight testing, and training, eventually to his selection for Apollo 11, but his path involves living through the deaths of at least five colleagues due to crashes and the cabin fire on the Apollo 1 craft, only furthering Armstrong’s turn inward with its constant reminder of Karen’s death. Armstrong also distances himself from his wife, Janet (Claire Foy), and two young sons, burying himself in work rather than risking further grief by getting too close to anyone else in his life.

First Man is extremely loud and incredibly close, to the point where the sound editing and cinematography, while perhaps accurate for the subject matter, make it hard to watch in several parts. The scenes aboard the various spacecraft involve a tremendous amount of shaking – not just showing us that the people on the ships are shaking, but shaking the camera so much that I repeatedly had to turn away from the screen, something I can’t remember ever doing for another film. The sound in those scenes where Armstrong is aboard any sort of ship is also mixed so that the background noise is amplified and it’s very hard to understand any of the communications between Armstrong (and any colleagues) and Mission Control; I eventually just gave up on understanding that dialogue, much of which involved technical chatter.

Gosling and Foy dominate the movie both in screen time and with their performances, with Gosling making Armstrong almost unknowable with his restrained portrayal, at times painful in his reticence and utter refusal to show emotion. There’s a pivotal scene where Janet forces him to talk to his two sons before he leaves for the Apollo 11 mission, knowing there was a good chance he wouldn’t return, and he can barely talk to the boys or even look at them; when one son asks if he might not come home, Armstrong responds as if he’s still in a press conference, with Gosling barely making eye contact and answering with a robotic tone and cadence. Foy gets to show a broader range of emotions, and her character develops some strength over the course of the film, enhanced by how her character is dressed and Foy’s own waifish appearance.

The movie has disappointed at the box office – much to the glee of alt-right trolls upset over the absence of a scene where the American flag is planted on the moon, which would be so out of place given the context of what Armstrong actually does after he lands – and I think one reason might be that the movie isn’t just a biopic. There is some celebration of space exploration here, and certainly some jingoism involved as the U.S. reached the moon before the Soviets could, but the larger theme in First Man is death and how we cope with it. The script’s premise is that Karen’s death changed Armstrong forever, leading him to create distance between himself and his family while driving him to take bigger risks at work, including accepting the riskiest mission in the history of the space program. (As a side note, I enjoyed watching Neil Armstrong, Buzz Aldrin, and The Pin flying to the moon.) Rather than fully explaining his character, though, the script instead shows a man unwilling to open up to anyone in his grief, and the damage that ultimately does to him, to his marriage, and to his relationships with his two surviving children. Perhaps audiences wanted to see more of a hero at the heart of the film – there are a few such moments, but it’s not the dominant tone – and were surprised to see a movie that is so somber and pensive about a topic just about nobody wants to spend any time considering. That theme, and that choice to go with that theme over a rah-rah space and ‘merica tone, makes First Man a stronger film even if it’s less commercially appealing.

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Can You Ever Forgive Me? is based on the true story of biographer and literary forger Lee Israel, who discovered she had a knack for mimicking the style of famous authors and began producing fake personal correspondence from the likes of Noel Coward and Dorothy Parker when her own books stopped selling. With two strong performances by Melissa McCarthy and Richard Grant, the film bounces along at a brisk pace, running from the nadir of Israel’s legitimate career through her forgery streak to her eventual trial, but the script itself is flimsy and does way too much to try to make a remorseless con artist into a sympathetic character.

McCarthy plays Israel, a frumpy, mid-50s author who drinks too much and doesn’t really care for people, and whose agent, played by Jane Curtin, has lost interest in working with her between her difficult personality and the lack of commercial appeal of her books. We see her lose an editing job, struggle to pay bills, and experience writer’s block (presaged in one of the many heavyhanded scenes in the movie), before she eventually meets Jack Hock, played by Grant, a flamboyant gay libertine who becomes her one friend and eventually a partner in her crimes. While researching her latest book idea, on comedienne Fanny Brice, she finds a real letter from Brice tucked in a library book, steals and sells it, and hits on the idea of forging letters for profit. Eventually, she’ll be caught, giving McCarthy a scene for her Oscar reel at the sentencing hearing, and hits on the idea of writing a memoir of her stint as a forger both as a way to make money and to satisfy her inner desire to write.

The story is just too light and way too kind to its main character to work. It does show Israel as difficult and often rude to others, but the depiction of her forgery sales gives off the sense that, hey, it’s all okay because she’s just selling stuff that wealthy idiots will buy, and that the independent bookstores who buy her letters to resell them are somehow complicit for their failure to verify that her letters are authentic. Because it’s based on Israel’s memoir, there’s no attempt to explain why she is the way she is – why she drinks so much, why she likes cats more than people (her words), why she can’t maintain romantic relationships, and so on. And that means we don’t learn anything about why she slides so easily into forgery, other than that she had a financial need and then realized she was good at it. There’s zero sense that she regrets any of this, or considers that there might be consequences for the other people she involves, including Jack, and the script doesn’t even try to explain how she ended up without scruples.

McCarthy and Grant are both tremendous in their respective characters and in all of their scenes together, an odd couple of misfit friends, neither of whom has anyone else close to them. Late in the film, Israel’s previous girlfriend appears in a confessional scene, although it merely rehashes what we already knew about Lee’s character – she can’t open up, she creates walls between herself and people who try to get close to her – without explaining any of why. That somewhat limits what McCarthy can do in the role, but given its constraints she goes to an extraordinary length to try to give the character some three-dimensional qualities and create empathy for Israel, even when it’s probably not deserved. Grant makes Hock a delightful scamp, a bit ridiculous at points, but both consistently entertaining and a better elicitor of pathos for the character than McCarthy can be with Israel, as his character is more of an open mess while Israel is a closed one.

There’s already a consensus forming around Grant as a lock for a Best Supporting Actor nomination, and McCarthy probably has a shot at a Best Actress nod, although that might depend a bit on how many voters actually see this movie. She deserves plaudits for easily transitioning from comedic roles that rely on her timing and her gift with physical comedy to a dramatic one where none of those comic skills come into play. It’s the script itself that’s the problem – this is a trifle of a story, told from the perspective of the main character, someone who had every reason to lie about herself and who had an actual history of lying. Some insight on her character would have gone a long way to justifying the film, but we get none of that and too much of the drama around her friendship with Jack and her forging career. It makes for an unsatisfying product beneath the two superb performances that sit on top of the film.

Madeline’s Madeline.

I’d never so much as heard of director Josephine Decker’s film Madeline’s Madeline (available on amazon & iTunes) until the Gotham Independent Film Project’s award nominations came out about two weeks ago. Honoring – you guessed it – the best in independent film of the year, the movie earned one of the five nominations for Best Feature Film (along with First Reformed and the upcoming If Beale Street Could Talk), while its star, Helena Howard, earned a nod for Breakthrough Star. It’s very much an indie film, nonlinear, highly metaphorical (the first line of the film tells you this), and often inscrutable, but Howard delivers one of the best performances by a teenaged actor I can remember seeing.

The movie is very, very weird, which is why it’s regularly called “experimental,” although in this case I’m not sure what’s experimental about it beyond just the nonlinear storytelling. Howard plays Madeline, a 16-year-old actress, who has recently found her calling with a local theatrical troupe (or interpretive dance troupe), and has a deeply troubled relationship with her mother Regina (Miranda July). Madeline suffers from some serious mental illness, may have injured her mother before, and has an eating disorder and self-mutilation habits. The troupe is led by Evangeline (Molly Parker), who at first appears just like a director/writer consumed with her art, but her actual role and motivations are not so clear. She sees in Madeline both an incredible talent and a rich story of mental illness; her drive to get Madeline to open up and provide the subject for their performance lead Evangeline into a toxic relationship with Madeline that threatens the girl’s fragile tie with her mother and the integrity of the troupe itself.

Howard gives a virtuoso performance for a tyro – this is her first screen credit, film or TV – as a complex, difficult character prone to massive mood swings and primal behavior (yelling, screaming, using her body beyond simple gestures). The film depends entirely on the ability of the actress in that role, and Howard is strong from the beginning, only to get better as the film progresses and the script asks more of her. There’s a climactic scene where she imitates her mother that feels like the “that’s the scene that won her the X Award” moment in the film, but even in smaller scenes she excels at pushing the borders of the screen with those sudden shifts in mien or tone.

The script itself leaves a hundred questions along the way, resolving nothing. Foremost among them is whether Madeline is actually acting or dissociating; her most intense performances with the troupe seem to come from somewhere deeper within herself than most people can readily access, and that climactic scene ends with everyone reacting while she briefly goes catatonic. Related to that question is how much of what she tells us about her relationship with her mother is real; we see a little bit of her home life, and Regina is certainly not winning Mother of the Year given her extreme neuroses and how she takes those out on her daughter, but is it all true? For one example that comes up at the start of the movie: did Madeline actually burn her mother with an iron – or herself? Madeline’s father is mentioned but never appears; he seems to have left the family, but is discussed as if he’s present, and the most we learn about him comes when Madeline and some friends go in her basement and explore her father’s stash of porn. Why he left, and if he had any role in creating Madeline’s maladies, are both left unanswered.

The theatrical troupe is also … well, not quite right, to the point that it appears that the troupe may really be a cult, led by Evangeline, who sees a perfect recruit in Madeline, only to see the ingenue later threaten her control of the entire enterprise. The rhythmic breathing and humming, the all-black outfits, the masks (really, are you dancers, or are you Slipknot?), the often affectless way they greet each other all speak to some kind of relationship beyond members of the same dance ensemble.

I’m assuming the choices of the three main characters’ names were deliberate here, as two of them in particular have strong biblical connotations that seem to apply to the story. Madeline is derived from the same way we get the name Mary Magdalene, whom Jesus is said to have driven out “seven devils” – likely a reference to mental illness – according to the Gospel of Luke. Evangeline means the bringer of a gospel or good news, ironic since Evangeline is nothing but bad news for Madeline and her family but is unable to see anything beyond her own needs.

The story itself ends up a muddle without any clear here to there – often it wasn’t apparent whether we’d jumped back in time – and there is no answer to anything posed here. The final sequence of the script is powerful visually, and I thought reinforced the idea that this might be a cult, but I can’t say I know where we went on that journey or what the screenwriter was trying to say. That said, if you can watch a film just to see one character’s tremendous performance – not to mention to see someone throw up a 2012 Bryce Harper sort of debut – Madeline’s Madeline is worth the time just for Howard’s performance. This, it turns out, is how a star is born.

Stick to baseball, 11/4/18.

For ESPN+ subscribers, I ranked the top 50 free agents this offseason. I also held a Klawchat on Wednesday, before a brief vacation to Disneyworld to help my parents celebrate their 50th wedding anniversary.

I’ve been better about sending out my free email newsletter, which isn’t to say the content is better, just that I’m sending it more often.

And now, the links…

A Star Is Born.

The latest iteration of A Star Is Born, the third remake in the 81 years since the original premiered, manages to craft a clever, well-executed film beneath its enormous budget and the star power of the two leads. It dispenses with much of the schlock and sentiment of most mass-market dramas – and of the original film – but keeps the essential framework of the story, layering it with humor and well thought-out dialogue. For about two hours, it might be the best movie of the year, although the failure to set up the film’s climactic moment detracts from much of what came before.

Bradley Cooper co-wrote the new script and directed the film while also starring as a roots-rock artist Jackson Mayne, who is selling out stadiums and can’t go in public without people trying to surreptitiously take his picture. He’s also an alcoholic and drug addict, which we see in the opening scenes of the film, and which leads him to stop in a bar somewhere outside New York City – a drag bar where their former waitress Ally, played by Lady Gaga, sings every Friday night. She performs “La Vie en Rose,” and Mayne is utterly smitten by her voice, her personality, and her looks. She confesses to him that she wants to be a singer but she’s been told by every record executive that she’s not attractive enough to be a commercially successful artist. Of course, if you know the story at all, you know that he disagrees, takes her under his wing, and turns her into a star, all while the two have a fairy-tale sort of romance that can’t possibly last given his self-destructive tendencies.

The story has been told before, although the original script, co-written by Dorothy Parker, revolved around a young actress discovered while working as a waitress at a Hollywood studio party by a famous actor already on the decline due to his drinking. The new version of A Star Is Born works hard to provide complexity to both of its main characters, including an extensive back story to Mayne to try to explain why he continues to abuse a panoply of substances; the story’s focus on those two characters to the almost total exclusion of anyone else makes it an unusually dense, smart script for a major studio release, and gives the two leads tremendous material for performances that both seem like locks for Oscar nominations.

Cooper has more to work with here, as he’s the primary character, has that more detailed character history, and has written in much more complexity to Jackson than he gave Ally. But Lady Gaga’s performance was even more revelatory, both because she has virtually no acting experience in film and very little in TV, and because she conveys so much of her character’s emotional vulnerability beyond reciting dialogue. If they gave out awards for the best use of an actor’s hands to show you a character’s emotional state, she’d be the overwhelming favorite. The two together have undeniable, immediate chemistry, and the story just of the first night they met is a perfect meet-cute anecdote that, of course, can’t last in the long term. (My only quibble with Lady Gaga is that she’s too pretty for the whole “you’re not pretty enough to be a rock star” gambit.)

For two hours, this machine hits cruise control and rolls along at 70 mph without so much as hitting a pebble in the road. The pacing is remarkably smooth, the dialogue smart and believable, and the inverse paths of the two characters’ careers handled intelligently and credibly. But the ending to this movie, which is very similar to those of previous versions, is rushed to the point that the last big plot event isn’t earned by the story that comes before it. That kind of plot device, even borrowed, needs more justification than it received here, and the way it’s written trivializes the choice that character makes. The script spends more time on the mechanics leading up to that moment – the practical steps the character takes – than on his emotional state and explaining how he came to such a drastic decision.

I’m going to predict, even though it’s early in the season, that A Star Is Born ends up with the most Oscar nominations, with at least nine, including Best Picture Director, Actor, Actress, Song, Cinematography, and some sound awards, while Sam Elliott could grab a nod for Best Supporting Actor in a small but pivotal role as Jackson’s brother and a critical member of his touring team. The concert scenes are incredibly well staged and shot, giving you a sense of the grandeur (and, to me, the anxiety potential) of performing in front of ten or twenty thousand people, yet much of the movie is filmed close – you are often right there with the characters, even when they’re talking to each other, in a way that works to heighten the intensity of arguments and breakdowns throughout the story. The sound in those concert scenes is superb as well, along with the way the film uses sound to bring the recurring bouts of tinnitus that Mayne experiences home to the viewer. It’s not the best film of the year, but it might be the biggest winner come awards season.

I’m going to reveal the big climactic event in the movie, since it’s worth a separate discussion. It is slightly different from the analogous moment in the three previous iterations of the movie, although in all four U.S. versions of this movie, the Mayne character dies, twice by drowning himself in the ocean, and this time by his own hand but via another method. I understand that in the real world, people do commit suicide for what might seem to an outsider a totally insufficient reason, and they also commit suicide with little to no warning. I’m holding this movie, and others, to a somewhat higher standard: If you’re going to have a character do this, I need to buy it. This time, I didn’t.

In the 1934 original, Norman Mayne’s decision to drown himself comes after a steep decline that was already underway at the start of the film. He’s a successful actor but a known drunk, he’s sozzled when he meets his ingenue Esther, and his career fortunes drop consistently throughout the film, until, near, the end, he’s a has-been and a public laughingstock. When he realizes that he’s destroying Esther’s career, he decides to take his own life. It’s not ‘right,’ of course, but the script spends more than enough time explaining how Norman got to that point.

The new version really doesn’t do that, and I think at least some of the problem comes in the writers’ choices to focus more on Ally’s rise than on Jackson’s fall. Ally gets a lot of screen time after Jackson has made her a star, including a new if unfinished arc about her choice to pursue a more commercial direction than Jackson intended for her career, one where she might be sacrificing some of her artistic integrity to sell more records. The cost of that additional story is that we get less detail to Jackson’s slide; there’s one enormous scene where he embarrasses her at the Grammy Awards (just as Norman Mayne did to Esther at the Oscars), but what follows from there doesn’t really lead to suicide. It’s the point where the film just stops being a great story and starts to rush to connect the remaining dots, so that the last 15-20 minutes don’t live up to everything that’s come before – and it all does so in a way that makes suicide seem like an entirely impetuous, selfish act, instead of the desperate decision of someone suffering from mental illness or great physical pain.

Music update, October 2018.

Huge month for new tracks – thirty strong this time around, ranging from indie rock to dance to metal to two tracks that are somewhere in the country/folk range. As always, if you can’t see the playlist below you can access the Spotify playlist here.

Joy Williams – Canary. The former member of the Civil Wars has a new album, Front Porch, due out early next year, with this the A-side of a new single (with “The Trouble With Wanting” the B-side), featuring a strong melody and her always amazing voice.

HAERTS – Fighter. Now a duo, HAERTS released their long-awaited second album, New Compassion, on October 5th to very little fanfare or attention, but it’s almost as good as their debut – the sound is similar but it doesn’t quite have the standout tracks of their self-titled first album.

Hatchie – Adored. One of two songs on this playlist from Adult Swim’s series of singles is the latest from Aussie singer-songwriter Hatchie, who continues to occupy this ethereal space that recalls early Lush and the Cranberries.

Radkey – Rock & Roll Homeschool. I’ve been waiting for this trio to put out another rocker like this since 2013’s “Cat and Mouse.” More of this, please.

Drenge – Autonomy. The title track from this duo’s new four-song EP that also features the song “Outside,” which appeared on my September playlist. I assume there’s another album coming soon, since their last came out in 2015.

The Struts – Fire (Part 1). A guilty pleasure of mine, although I recently told a friend I thought the Struts were just the Discount Arctic Monkeys. This is the best song on their latest album, which tends too much to the bombastic side of alternative pop for me.

Khruangbin – Maria También. If this sounds familiar, it’s the opening music to the Crimetown podcast series. Khruangbin avoid labels for their music but it’s definitely some sort of indie rock/funk with influences from various world music genres.

Port Noir – Old Fashioned. I don’t know what to make of this song, which veers a little close to rap-metal for me, but the chorus is tremendous and I love the dark tone of the music throughout the track.

Speedy Ortiz – DTMFA. The other Adult Swim single on this list is probably 95% of typical Speedy Ortiz but that’s still good enough for me.

Django Django – Sand Dunes. Django Django put out an album, Marble Skies, back in January, but they’ve since released a six-track EP of songs recorded before (or maybe during?) those sessions, including this mid-tempo track that really would have fit quite well on the longer album.

Ian Brown – First World Problems. New single from the Stone Roses’ lead singer, not his best but definitely featuring his typically snarky lyrics.

Ten Fé – Won’t Happen. The lead single from the soft-rock band’s upcoming sophomore album, Future Perfect, Present Tense (due out in March), is more of the same as their first album provided – and that’s good.

Swervedriver – Mary Winter. Swervedriver returned in 2015 with their first album in 17 years – the same hiatus that Ride and Slowdive took, in fact – but it was unremarkable without any strong hooks or remotely memorable songs. This new single has that certain something, and I think it’s their best song since the title track from their last pre-breakup album 99th Dream.

The London Suede – As One. I didn’t love The Blue Hour, their latest album, because it was overrun with dirge-like tracks, but this wildly dramatic song is one of the few standouts for me.

Maisie Peters – Details. I have no idea why this 18-year-old British singer/songwriter hasn’t become a global star. Her voice is adorable, her lyrics clever, her melodies catchy.

Keuning – Restless Legs. That’s Dave Keuning, founding guitarist of the Killers, with his first solo track. He’s announced his first solo album, Prismism, will come out next year.

Arkells – Hand Me Downs. Arkells, like the Struts, are a bit too pop-oriented for me overall but occasionally hit enough of a melodic high point for me to overlook the commercial production. “Relentless” is the best track on the new album; this would be my second-favorite.

The Beths – You Wouldn’t Like Me. New Zealand quartet The Beths dropped their first full-length album, Future Me Hates Me, in August, featuring this very ’90s punk-inflected power pop single.

Christine and the Queens – 5 dollars. The French singer/songwriter Héloïse Letissier has received universal praise for her latest album, Chris, which is certainly one of the smartest and most inventive pop records of the year. If there’s a US hit single to be had here, this is it.

White Lies – Believe It. Much better than anything off White Lies’ last album, comparable to my favorite track from them, 2013’s “There Goes Our Love Again.”

Hinds – British Mind. I’ll include anything this Spanish quartet releases, obviously. I don’t think any band sounds like they’re having as much fun as these four women do.

Allie X – Little Things. Allie X had posted an older song called “Sculpture,” which was on this playlist earlier in the month but has since disappeared from Spotify and isn’t on the EP she just released last week, Super Sunset. That does include this track; “Science,” one of my favorite songs from the summer, and the solid “Girl of the Year,” which I just find a little hard to listen to because of the chorus.

Longwave – Stay With Me. I was totally unfamiliar with Longwave, who put out four albums between 1999 and 2008, until hearing this song, which appears to be their first new single since they reunited, but this song has a great ’80s new wave vibe at its core, like the best work of White Lies.

TVAM – Porsche Majeure. TVAM’s album Psychic Data is probably going to end up on my top albums of the year list, featuring multiple strong mostly-instrumental tracks like this one, with Joe Oxley creating swirling electronic hooks that evoke all manner of emotions – this track feels especially menacing to me.

Greta Van Fleet – Lover, Leaver. Everyone compares Greta Van Fleet to Led Zeppelin, but I think the better comp is Kingdom Come – it’s derivative rather than paying homage, still occasionally catchy or interesting enough to merit further listens (as on this song or “When the Curtain Falls”), but on the whole it’s nothing we haven’t heard a hundred times before.

Cloud Nothings – Another Way Of Life. I’d grown a bit tired of Cloud Nothings’ sound, which never seemed to evolve, but this closer to the band’s short new album (35 minutes, with one track accounting for almost a third of that) seems to point to at least some small change in their style.

Toundra – Cobra. Instrumental, progressive metal from Madrid, musically similar to early Opeth but without vocals.

Haken – Puzzle Box. I’ve known of Haken for years but never put them on a playlist before this track, which I think gives us the prog metal band’s strongest melody to date.

High On Fire – Spewn From The Earth. You kind of know what to expect from High on Fire at this point, I think.

Behemoth – Bartzabel. I’ve always thought of Behemoth as a bit of a joke – the music was fine, but they so thoroughly covered themselves in the juvenile trappings of black metal that they verged on self-parody … but I have to admit this song is quite good if you can get past the death growls.

Klawchat 10/31/18.

Keith Law: Every time just like the last. Klawchat.

Dean: Mr. President, everyone in this room is now dumber from having listened to you. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
Keith Law: Just going to suggest that one way to stop a President who thinks he can change the Constitution on a whim is to vote for the opposition party on Tuesday.

DaveAlden53: How is Jahmai Jones doing at second base? Is his bat a better fit for that position?
Keith Law: He was fine there when I saw him in the AFL but never sufficiently challenged. The bat would obviously play better there than in LF/RF, since he wasn’t going to play center in that organization.

DaveAlden53: The Brewers added Tyrone Taylor to their 40-man roster. Can he play a role with the big club in 2019?
Keith Law: Extra outfielder? He really hasn’t performed – a .321 OBP in Colorado Springs as a 24-year-old is not going to cut it.

Tom: Let’s say it was physically and financially possible to change all ballparks so that they played identically to each other. Would you be in favor of doing this?
Keith Law: No, I love the fact that we have unique playing fields & dimensions – it sets us apart from other sports.

JT: You’ve long been an advocate of going to an experienced manager while still being a fresh face with new ideas: are you happy with the Blue Jays’ selection of Montoya?
Keith Law: Absolutely – heard nothing but great things from his colleagues in Tampa Bay and he has a great resume.

Hal: What candy are you handing out for Halloween?
Keith Law: Nothing special – we just get some generic mixed stuff from Target, definitely Reese’s cups in there, because I will eat the leftovers. I didn’t dress up this year for the first time in a while because my daughter is just generally less into the holiday this year.

Andy: Serious question, if the Mets decide to trade DeGrom or Syndergaard to jumpstart a rebuild, would the new GM sign off on it?
Hal: Kimbrel looked vulnerable at times during the playoffs and during the season his Ks were down and BB way up. If you were Boston would you let him walk? What would you offer him?
Keith Law: I would let Kimbrel walk, yes.
Keith Law: Mets GM: who knows – anything involving those guys feels like a conflict of interest. If you’re another GM and BVW calls to offer to trade you one of those guys, don’t you wonder if he has information on them that you don’t have that might discourage you from accepting any offer?

Wally: Initial thoughts on the Trevor Rosenthal signing ?
Keith Law: I can’t offer thoughts on a deal without any contract terms.

Andy: What is pache’s future value in your eyes?
Keith Law: He’s at least 10+ runs a year in centerfielder, maybe 15-20, with plus raw power and, at the moment, a low OBP. That still makes him an above-average regular, but the ceiling is limited by the lack of patience at the plate, and he did seem occasionally overmatched at the plate in the AFL.

Ozzie’s helmet: Is there a way to prevent that Ozzie Albies becomes Rougned Odor?
Keith Law: Sure, but he has to be a part of that process too.

Jordan: Do you think the Mets have the pieces to go after JT Realmuto this winter? And if they do, what would they have to offer for the Marlins to seriously consider accepting the deal?
Keith Law: I think other teams would be able to top the Mets’ best offer – but I also think it would be a terrible idea for the Mets to trade prospects for Realmuto.

Joules: How reluctant do you think the Marlins would be to move JTR within the division?
Keith Law: The correct answer would be “zero.” That mentality is stupid, and outdated, and hurts no one but your own team.

Brian: There has been a lot of glowing post-season wrap up stuff on Spencer Howard. What have you heard about him?
Keith Law: I’ve seen him. Lot of average stuff. Was way too old/experienced for low-A this year.

HOTLANTA: Do you think an offer of Pache, Gohara, and Allard would be enough to land Realmuto?
Keith Law: Probably, if Anthopoulos has lost his damn mind.

Jordan: Obviously we need to see results before seriously judging, but what are your thoughts on the Mets hiring Van Wagenen as their new GM?
Keith Law: I said this yesterday on the BBTN podcast: I know BVW a little, but not enough to know what kind of GM he will be, but I will say that the Mets’ process here has been a farce. The owner’s son hired his buddy, and it’s a guy with zero experience anywhere in a front office – never scouted, never worked in player development, never worked in analytics, never worked as an AGM under in that area working on contracts. I literally have more relevant experience than BVW does, and I do not believe I am qualified to jump in and be a GM. Yet they chose him over one of the best and most qualified GM candidates in the game, Chaim Bloom; and they covered their bases by interviewing two persons of color, one a woman, and then booting them both after the first round. Sometimes a flawed process produces a good result, but that doesn’t absolve the owners here for the flaws.

Fish: Is the Orioles’ hiring of a President/GM going to be a circus again, or is there any indication that there’s been a positive change there?
Keith Law: Nobody knows what’s going on. I generally don’t chase those rumors anyway, but I’m surprised I’ve heard basically nothing on Baltimore.

Zihuatanejo: From a talent/development standpoint, are either of Smith or Ruiz ready to suit up for the Dodgers in 2018?
Keith Law: Smith probably is. Ruiz is not.

Adam Trask: Your brand is built in part on letting people into to your personal life and political views. Why would you react negatively when a follower asks what you’re doing in the offseason or about your eating habits?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t. I think you totally missed the joke.

David: Since the Padres forced him out of position by signing Hosmer, trading Myers seems logical—but how much of his contract would they have to eat to do so (and get something useful back in return)?
Keith Law: He’s not a $20 million/year player, which is what he’s getting paid in 2020-22; he might be worth 60% of that, even if he’s returned to first base (he’s a better fielder there, but the positional value is also lower). So that’s my very rough, outside guess – they’d probably have to offer to pay 1/3 to 2/5 of it.

TP: Favorite MLB and MiLB cities for food?
Keith Law: Woof, that’s a long list for MLB. For the minors, though, Nashville is the obvious standout. Louisville is also pretty close; Raleigh-Durham, if we count that as one destination, is up there. I haven’t spent enough time in Austin but its reputation would put it in the same class.

Nick: Do you really see the Yankees staying out of the Harper/Machado sweepstakes?
Keith Law: No.

Mike: Have you seen Nate Pearson since he returned? Any thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Yes, please see my second AFL post for a full report.

Jeff D.: Should the Dodgers be VERY worried about the investigation into their Cuban signees and the laws that may have been broken? MLB penalties, actual DOJ penalties or arrests?
Keith Law: Better question for a lawyer. I’m not qualified to answer and haven’t even asked anyone in the game about the story (why would they tell me anything?).

CJC: Why wouldn’t the Yankees just play Gleyber at short next year while Didi rehabs? Who would you have play 2nd?
Keith Law: That is exactly what I would do. Gleyber can play short. You can find a second baseman to fill in for a bit. Maybe it’s Tyler Wade.

Stephen: What would a fair extension look like for the Dodgers and Kershaw, given what he means to the franchise, their place on the marginal win curve, and his declining velocity? Add two years and 70mm to current deal? Or is that just too high even for them?
Keith Law: Oh god no – that’s WAY too much. He’s not a $30 million a year guy any more.

Mike: It seems like teams are getting better and better at scouting amateur players. Is it still necessary to have as many levels in the minor leagues as we currently do?
Keith Law: I don’t see the connection there – we need the lower levels for the raw high school kids and Latin American free agents who sign as teenagers.

Ian: Any thoughts on what the Rockies should do in 2019? Go all in, trade Arenado, or muddle through with strange choices and over the hill vets (clearly the likely outcome)
Keith Law: They can compete again for sure, but would need to make some hard internal decisions (like accepting that playing Desmond hurts the club, or that paying for relievers isn’t working). I think they’re a potential playoff team as currently constructed, helped by Arizona likely taking a step back and the Giants almost certainly starting to rebuild.

Pat: Carter Kieboom ready to be opening day roster for Nats?
Keith Law: No.

Jesse B: If you had to guess, educated of course, which of these three will have the best pro career, Lucius Fox, Jazz Chisholm, and Andres Gimenez?
Keith Law: Ranked best to worst: Chisholm, Fox, Gimenez.

Bort: Thoughts on Mejia for next season? Does he get 400 at bats?
Keith Law: He should play a full season – there is no good reason why he wouldn’t.

Mac: Do you think Spencer Adams has a legit shot to earn a spot in the White Sox rotation out of spring training?
Keith Law: No, nor should he. He has marginal stuff and struck out only 11% of batters he faced in AAA.

Nate: Does Hudson have a shot at making the Cardinals rotation, or is he destined to be a career reliever?
Keith Law: I think reliever is most likely the outcome for him, but they could certainly try him again as a starter.

Kyle: After AFL is over, do you pay any attention to the other winter leagues (Mexico, ABL, etc)? Is there a MiLB level that those leagues are equivalent to?
Keith Law: There isn’t, not for AFL either, because the range of player calibers top to bottom is much wider in those offseason leagues than it is in a typical minor league. I don’t really pay attention to the winter leagues after the AFL but will occasionally get scouting reports on players who looked substantially different there.

Logan: Will Kolby Allard improve enough from a command and secondaries standpoint to actually be a 4th/5th starter on a solid team?
Keith Law: He is a 5th starter for me now. He’d need more velocity or life on the fastball to be much more than that.

Nate: Know it’s early, but what kind of upside does Jenista possess?
Keith Law: I don’t see what position he can play for an NL team. He might be an everyday DH, but that’s not an option with Atlanta.

Gabe: You don’t think Kimbrel will get the QO? Seems to make sense to keep the team together one more year while they still have Sale and before J.D. can opt out.
Keith Law: They might offer it, but I wouldn’t. The trend lines on him are largely pointing down and the history of one-inning relievers is that their peaks are short and end abruptly.

Chester: Are Happ, Contreras, Schwarber all flops?
Keith Law: No. You could wait a minute.

Radiohix: Did you get a look at Darwinson Hernandez? what do we got here?
Keith Law: He’s also in the AFL post to which I linked earlier.

Rich: Starting to play light strategy board games with my young son. Did your daughter’s logic, critical thinking, or general math ability improve by playing those types of games?
Keith Law: Who knows? She enjoyed them, I enjoyed playing with her, and it didn’t involve staring at a screen. That’s a win for me.

Mac: What’s your take on the launch angle revolution? Do you think it’s here to stay or do you think baseball will revert back to: little guys put the ball in play and big guys swing for the fences?
Keith Law: It’s here to stay at least in part, but haven’t we always known that guys with flatter swings produced less power, and guys who swing too far uphill tended to swing and miss too much and also fail to produce the power they might physically possess? Now we just have the data to fine-tune it. The one thing I think might change is that we might see teams like the Dodgers become more discriminating in whose swings they alter – that there are just some players who become worse off by trying to optimize their launch angles for power because they become sufficiently worse hitters for contact.

Larry: Is Peter Alonso’s defense now passable like Ricciardi says?
Keith Law: It was bad in the AFL. His hands are fine, but he’s pretty big and not agile. His bat would play well at DH, but again, not an option.

Junior: Are you impressed with what Billy Eppler has done with the organization?
Keith Law: Yes, overall I think he’s done a great job to date, especially with the mandate to try to win now.

Ben: Why would the Mets hire a GM with no front-office experience?
Keith Law: Because Jeff liked him.

Joe: Interesting that each side thinks that it’s ok to change the constitution for one thing but not for the other when it comes to gun control/immigration. The argument on each side is even the same – that it was not the framers intent when they originally passed the law. I would prefer they follow the constitution in both ways. Both sides are arguing out of both sides of their mouth.
Keith Law: Well, I guess talking out of both sides of your mouth is better than talking out of your ass, Joe.

Eric: who do you think has a better career, Touki Toussaint or Shane Bieber and why?
Keith Law: Give me Touki. Better stuff, better athlete, still a year younger too.

Drake: How much of an improvement do you think we see in Devers next year?
Keith Law: I believe he will end up a star. That might be 2019, it might be 2020, but I firmly believe it’s coming.

Tony: Is Yu Chang anything other than a spare infielder? Or, put differently, in an organization other than Cleveland could he be a starter?
Keith Law: Maybe a starter in some orgs. I think he’s kind of a fringe regular.

Clayton: Kershaw’s less than stellar performance in the post season is mostly just SSS noise, right?
Keith Law: That is just noise, and better competition. What is not noise is a full year of pitching at 90-91 with less power to the slider too.

Justin: Did you get a look at Andy Young (STL) when you were at the AZ Fall League? Does he have a future as a big league UTIL guy?
Keith Law: I did and yes, if not a little more.

Chris Verdugo : Do you think the era of Donald Trump is going to motivate future Americans to become more aware and concerned about politics in general, and if so do you think the Republicans are just waiting for their demise as voters become younger and younger and side with more progressive policies?
Keith Law: I think it has alerted more people, probably on both sides if not in equal numbers, to the importance of getting involved and voting.

Patrick: Thanks again for the chats, Keith!
Do you ever read/review your daughter’s reading choices? As my son gets older, I struggle with how much to direct (approve?) his choices.
Keith Law: Yes, I do, but she also has yet to ask to read something I wouldn’t approve.

Tom: Have you read Salt Fat Acid Heat or seen the Netflix show? If so, what do you think of them?
Keith Law: I own the book but haven’t read it yet.

Patrick: Keith, your thoughts on Fox WS announcers? Would viewers be better served by PBP person that regularly works games?
Keith Law: I muted them the whole way through.

Andrew: In 2010 my friends and I went to Pitt for a Mets/pirates series. One game was rained out early and we walked around downtown Pitt. A woman saw us in Mets gear and struck up a conversation. She was from LI too and invited us to Squirrel Hill pray at a synagogue. We said we weren’t Jewish and she said it didn’t matter we were welcome anyway. I’ve always remembered the exchange and how kind and welcoming the woman was. I am really at a loss as to what happened this weekend
Keith Law: I am too. I am not Jewish, but lived very near that synagogue and interacted very often with members of the Jewish community in Squirrel Hill for two years, and never felt anything less than welcome even though I was an interloper twice over (I was a grad student, and obviously not a permanent Pittsburgh resident). The normalization of white nationalism the last three years has encouraged domestic terrorists.

Rich: I don’t know whether Kim Ng would be a good GM or not. I hope she gets a GM job sometime soon and thrives. Do you think teams interview her as a token candidate with no intention of hiring her? Seems like she has interviewed countless times and never gotten serious consideration.
Keith Law: I believe she has been used repeatedly to satisfy MLB’s unwritten Rooney rule.

Hyce Brarper: A Marlins beat writer claimed the price for JT hasn’t gone down, would still insist on Acuña. He has to be kidding, right?
Keith Law: He may not have been kidding but that ain’t happening.
Keith Law: Also, the price for any player goes down as he approaches free agency. Take an econ class, dude.

Jake: Have you seen Brusdar Graterol in person? Ace potential?
Keith Law: I have not. I’ve talked to multiple scouts about him, and the consensus was more high-end closer potential than starter potential, at least right now.

Jake: Kohl Stewart hasn’t seemed to live up to his potential so far, but his ground ball rate kept him around the majors… Do you think he ever develops further into a quality starter?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, unfortunately. I was way too high on him as an amateur/young prospect. His stuff regressed.

Patrick: If Burnes and Woodruff make Brewers rotation, do you see Counsell/Stearns letting them throw deeper into games than this year’s crop of starters? I guess I’m asking, “bullpenning” conditional on starters, or do you think an ongoing team philosophy?
Keith Law: I believe their bullpenning plan, like Tampa’s, revolved around the actual personnel on the pitching staff.

Bailey: How come you don’t care about all the food that is wasted on Top Chef?
Keith Law: Begging the question. And this has come up before: the food is not wasted.

CJC: Thoughts on Corbin at $20mm per year?
Keith Law: Sign me up for that.

Lilith: Really random question, but could you ever see a team installing a differently colored field like Boise State does in college football? Would it be breaking any rules? … I mean, Loria had to have thought of it, right?
Keith Law: I actually don’t know if there’s a rule against it, but I bet MLB would step in very quickly to quash it.

ScottyD in Downingtown: Is June 2020 a reasonable ETA for Brendan McKay to arrive in Tampa?
Keith Law: He’s ready to pitch in the majors now. That’s a long time to hold him down.

Nate: Any chance the Yankees non-tender Didi?
Keith Law: I would say no chance.

Andy: Have you ever gotten into symphonic metal, like Nightwish? It’s much less guitar driven than black metal, but better vocals, while still being instrumentally interesting.
Keith Law: Not them specifically but I pretty much like any kind of progressive or experimental metal if it’s focused on musicianship rather than speed or merely being ‘heavy.’

Kevin : Season’s over. Lets talk HoF. I know he is no longer eligible, but if he was would you vote Dwight Evans into Cooperstown?
Keith Law: Yes, I would.

Aaron G: In response to Joe re: gun laws. It says “well regulated militia” right in the text. Literal interpretation: go join a militia (currently similar to the National Guard) if you want to own a damned weapon of war.
Keith Law: Also, I haven’t heard anyone who matters suggesting that, say, the President could unilaterally revoke the Second Amendment. I’d like to see fairly strict laws on who can own guns, but I would stand between any President and an attempt to rewrite part the Constitution without going through the actual process for amending it.

Garrett: AA has already tried to pump the brakes on expectations that the Braves are going to spend big, but I look at that as just talk. But given how their farm system is balanced at the moment, aren’t they the ideal team to go for Harper? Teams are never 1 player away, but this signing would be as close too that scenario as I could imagine.
Keith Law: Do you think Liberty would authorize him to spend big like that? I rather doubt that myself. I think he’ll be allowed to make big moves, but I can’t imagine he gets to spend like that on one player.

Ira: What is your solution for illegal immigration and how to deal with current illegal residents?
Keith Law: “Solution” implies a problem. Immigration is a net positive for economies; we want immigrants to come here to contribute to our economy as workers and consumers, and should create paths for them to do so in ways that encourage them to come and work as soon as they arrive. The idea that immigration is itself a problem is both deeply ignorant of the history of our country, including our economic and cultural dependence on immigrants, and a longstanding method of creating a common enemy to use fear to drive the shrinking white majority in the country to the polls. The Hidden Brain has recently had two excellent podcasts on this topic within the last three weeks.

Brent : Did you get a chance to see CWS’s Burdi in the AFL? Any insight to how he’s look after TJ? Thanks.
Keith Law: I did not but Eric Longenhagen did and said he looked like he did pre-TJ (which is good).

Jennyfer: Nobody serious on the left is calling for the 2nd amendment to be thrown out. We’re calling for common sense restrictions. The nut in Pittsburgh was a “good guy with a gun” until he wasn’t because he did everything legally.
Keith Law: That’s been under-reported, too – the weapons he used were all purchased legally.

donn: thoughts on smoltz in the booth? Looks like we have a huge issue in sports these days with older commentators complaining nonstop about the way basketball/baseball are these days and how the game isn’t the same as it was 20/30/40 years ago. Smoltz, wilbon, and many others spend all their time complaining rather then adjusting and embracing. It becomes very annoying to listen to. Is there a solution?
Keith Law: The solution is to put different people in the booth – and you know what? sometimes that means a booth with no former MLB players in it. It can be a bonus, but it shouldn’t be a requirement.

Jay: Will Durbin Feltman be in the majors for most of ’19?
Keith Law: I think that has to be the plan; you don’t draft a college reliever that high unless you think he’s close to MLB ready.

Zihuatanejo: I’m sure you’ve already answered this question this season, but — what kind of prospect (if any) was Max Muncy prior to this year? Was this kind of breakout foreseeable at all?
Keith Law: No, it wasn’t. He didn’t have game power because his swing didn’t create it. Unless you knew he’d changed his swing and that it would be this effective, I don’t see how you could have distinguished him from a few dozen other low-power corner bats like him.

Adam: Is Tatis one of those players that will be called up 2 weeks after the season starts or due to his recent injury do you see him debuting later in the season, say September call up range?
Keith Law: I’m guessing he comes up more in June or so. He did miss a lot of at bats.

JT: Will any of Dalton Pompey, Devon Travis, or Anthony Alford ever establish themselves as a solid regular?
Keith Law: At this point I would say Alford might, the others probably won’t. Alford hasn’t lived up to my expectations for him but I hold out some hope because he is so inexperienced for his age.

RSO: Did you happen to see Brodie Van Wagenen’s interview with Mike Francesa? It was cringe worthy.
Keith Law: I only saw the Metsmerized summary. I was glad to see him say that the Mets have drafted well, which they have, although I don’t know if he mentioned that those three college arms he liked were all CAA clients (all good picks anyway … CAA reps a lot of very good prospects in every draft).
Keith Law: Again, my criticisms are not directed at BVW. He’s a bit of a blank to all of us on the outside. It’s the process that leads to his hiring over obviously qualified candidates from within the industry that I am criticizing.

Mike: The Yankees probably don’t bring back Robertson or britton. Who do you see them targeting for bullpen help?
Keith Law: Why not bring one or both back?

J: This somewhat anticipates top 100 and team rankings, but I’m wondering where you stand on Corey Ray and Lucas Erceg now, and if either has any 2019 MLB legs.
Keith Law: As much as I like Corey Ray, I have a hard time believing the 2018 power spike is meaningful when 1) scouts kept telling me he was selling out for that power and 2) he still punched out 30% of the time. There is still some hope for him and Erceg (who also had back trouble in March and then got hit in the helmet by a pitch in April), but neither has developed anywhere near as I expected. I think this has generally been an issue with Milwaukee – their best hitting prospects have stalled or regressed. Trent Grisham looked like a non-prospect to me in the AFL.

Beau: Do you think Austin Allen can be a starting MLB catcher?
Keith Law: I do not. Solid backup.

Craig: If the A’s sign Lowrie, as Rosenthal said they want to, what could Barreto fetch in a trade?
Keith Law: Barreto’s value is at an all-time low, I think.

Jacob Wohl: I’m in trouble am I not?
Keith Law: It sure looks that way. Given the hate and misinformation you’ve spewed, I’m okay with that.

Frank: Any chance the Cubs try to trade for Whit Merrifield and play Baez at SS fule time?
Keith Law: If I’m a Cubs fan that is the last thing I want them to do (the trade part – I’m good with putting Baez at SS full time). Pick up Hamels’ option, re-sign Chavez, and go hard for Machado or Harper.

Mike: I’m 40 yrs old, and thinking of learning guitar. Is it a long road to learn ?
Keith Law: I started when I was a little kid, then picked it up more seriously when I was 13. Not sure what would be involved to learn it now – but you should do it anyway. It’s fun, and it’s very good for your brain to learn a new skill like that.
Keith Law: Also, chicks dig it.

Eric: Just wanted to say thanks for you not “sticking to baseball”.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I don’t plan to stick to baseball now or ever again.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat but I do have a few notes before I skip out. My ranking of the top 50 free agents this winter will go up Friday, but I’ll be on a brief vacation to help my parents celebrate their 50th wedding anniversary, so I will be scarce on social media through Sunday. (That also likely means the stick to baseball post will be postponed.) The next chat will be Thursday, and I’ll probably do another Periscope chat next week too. Also, one addition to a question I was asked last week in chat and yesterday on the Periscope: Another movie I’m really looking forward to is The Favourite. I saw the trailer yesterday before A Star Is Born and I am all in.
Keith Law: Thanks as always for showing up and asking so many questions. Have a safe and fun Halloween!

Let the Sunshine In.

Let the Sunshine In (available to rent on amazon and iTunes) is a star turn for Juliette Binoche, a thinly plotted wisp of a movie that works entirely because of Binoche’s performance as a middle-aged woman looking for something in her love life but unable to find it – perhaps because she doesn’t know what it is she wants. It’s a sort of cringe comedy for adults, full of awkward interactions in and out of the bedroom, punctuated by emotional scenes of Binoche lamenting her unhappiness and questioning the decisions she’s made, while she’s surrounded by some generally awful men.

Binoche plays Isabelle, an artist and single mother who, at the start of the movie, is experiencing but definitely not enjoying sex with a rather unattractive banker named Vincent, who quickly reveals himself to be something of a pig – and is also quite married and full of himself. Isabelle says she’s in love with him, although her actions would imply otherwise. Between watching Vincent treating a bartender like he’s something less than human and hearing Vincent say he will never leave his wife, Isabelle decides to break it off and venture out on her own, which leads to a couple of doomed affairs with brooding artist types and a lot of conversations about her misadventures and melancholy.

It’s unfair to say nothing happens in Let the Sunshine In (the actual title of which, Un Beau Soleil Intérieur, is better translated as “a beautiful sun within”), but what does happen is usually inconsequential. Isabelle seems unable to distinguish physical intimacy from genuine emotional affection, a confusion of which men around here seem more than happy to take advantage – I was reminded of the opening couplet from the Shelter song “Here We Go,” about a guy using love for sex while the girl is using sex for love. Nearly all of the men Isabelle encounters are creeps of varying levels of aggressiveness, and when the one possible ‘nice guy’ in the film kisses her but doesn’t want to rush right into sex, she feels rejected. There’s no destination here, or even any real growth; the film ends with Isabelle’s visit to a psychic (and, obviously, a fraud) played by Gérard Depardieu, with his bad advice and her questions continuing through most of the closing credits.

With the wrong actress as Isabelle, this would have been unwatchable; even though there are a few sex scenes and a few other big moments, the script is powered entirely by dialogue, nearly all of which involves the main character. Binoche delivers an Oscar-caliber performance here, owning the screen every time she’s on it, conveying a mix of strength and vulnerability, the understanding that she’s still attractive (can confirm) but the awareness that she’s aging and that her ‘window’ to find that perfect mate might be closing. The character is locked in a sort of arrested development when it comes to romance, thinking of love and sex as a young adult might, even though Isabelle is somewhere in middle age (never specified, although Binoche was 52 when this was filmed). She still dresses young, and that sex-for-love confusion dictates nearly all of her behavior with men, exacerbated by the fact that pretty much all of the men in this movie are terrible to her.

But is there a point to all of this? It’s not quite #CancelMen territory, although all the men in this movie who get more than a few minutes on screen are either out to get laid or to find someone to mother them (or, in at least one case, both). Isabelle herself has plenty of points in the film that could cause her to reevaluate her decisions in dating, yet she continues forward on the same path, so she just repeats her mistakes, right down to the decision to go to a clairvoyant (whom we see is a phony in one of the few scenes that doesn’t include Binoche). I’d watch Binoche work in almost any movie, and Isabelle is a suitably three-dimensional character, just one deserving of a more complex story.

(Random trivia: Director Claire Denis’ first film was called Chocolat, but it’s not the same film as the Oscar-nominated film of that name that starred Binoche and earned the latter a Best Supporting Actress nod.)