The dish

Sign up for my TinyLetter!

Klaw: This is a low-flying panic attack. Klawchat.

Nick: As a Phillies fan, a lot was made of Nick Williams “improved” plate discipline but since joining the Phillies’ org he’s walked in 3.4% of his PAs. I tried to tell people he had a random spike in May 2015 but they wouldn’t listen… It also got me thinking about Domonic Brown and those two months in 2013. How do you approach these sometimes lengthy statistical spikes in evaluating a player?
Klaw: Now at 18 walks since June 1st of last year in over 400 PA. He can hit and has power, but there’s scant evidence he has any semblance of plate discipline. In his case, I felt somewhat comfortable dismissing or at least downplaying the walk spike because he had three months of playing time after that May bump where his walk rate returned to previously established levels. It’s harder to distinguish when the spike comes in August, or after the All-Star Break, and then it becomes in my mind a question for the scouts: Did the player actually change? Were his mechanics different, or his approach within at bats?

Kevin: I see on your top 100 you have wentz ahead of pint. I have seen both twice this year and agree with you but from what I’ve seen it seems like the industry likes pint more. Do you believe you’re in minority on having wentz above pint? And if so what do you think causes teams to see it this way is it just a pure arm strength bet?
Klaw: I don’t think there’s a strong consensus on this one but it might be 60/40 in favor of Pint, because he throws 100 and you’re not getting fired for taking the guy who throws 100 because if he flops you can always say “but he threw 100!”

Nick: Who are your top sleepers for the draft this year?
Klaw: I don’t know that I have sleepers, but I ranked the top 100 guys with Eric’s help and you might see players higher than you expected on our list. Someone like Ryan Rolison, for example, who I think is an ideal second-pick overpay for a team with lots of money – a polished HS arm with some projection, not a top-10 or top-15 talent by any means but comfortably in the next tier for about half the price of a Pint or Groome.

Paul: I’m a Braves fan. I want Corey Ray. A friend of mine read your Lankford comp and thus is unexcited by him. I presented to him the top 25 position players, by fWAR, from ’95-’98: Bonds, Griffey, Piazza, Bagwell, Biggio, McGwire, Edgar, Knoblauch, Thome, Big Hurt, Vaughn, Lankford, Larkin, Belle, Pudge, ARod, Sosa, Palmeiro, Bernie, Walker, Chipper, Valentin, Lofton, Edmonds, Manny. Seems to me that someone whose 4yr peack performance was right smack dab in the middle of a bunch of HOF’ers, and with a chance to be that for more than 4 years, is something to drool over, and certainly worthy of the 3rd (or 1st) overall pick.
Klaw: I have him ranked 1 right now, and you’ve reasonably well explained my logic. If he’s an above-average regular for five years, that’s a successful outcome. His floor seems pretty high – I’d argue he and Senzel have the highest realistic floors (think pessimistic forecast, but not so pessimistic that you’re thinking he gets hurt or forgets how to play) in the class. Ray has solid upside, maybe fringe star potential, and you’re almost certainly getting an everyday player. Senzel doesn’t seem to have star potential – I think he could be peak Bill Mueller, who was a pretty damn good player but probably never a star – while I think the industry as a whole is most certain of his hit tool out of all bats in the class.

Bryan: Any recent buzz about who the Braves are connected to at 3?
Klaw: All of this stuff is in my top 100 from yesterday – I took all the decent or reliable dope I had and put it in the comments. I’ll do a full mock of the first round next Wednesday. My guess right now is Puk, Senzel, Ray, Groome, Perez for the top five. The Phillies seem to be on Puk, Lewis, Ray, perhaps Senzel, and maybe Moniak but I think that’s more “we really like him, just not at 1.”

Yolo-potato: Out of Moniak, Pint or Groome who is most likely to slip to the Padres at 8? Who do you think is the best out of those 3?
Klaw: Pint most likely. Ranking yesterday has the answer to your second question. I also think they’d jump at Perez if he’s there, or Matt Manning.

Jake: Is Machado now the best player in baseball?
Klaw: No. That player is a National and was just suspended for one game.

Patrick: Do you see josh Ockimey making it to prospect status or just a guy putting up good numbers in Low-A for Red Sox?
Klaw: He’s a prospect. Two Red Sox guys told me in March he was primed for a breakout season, and I saw he’d changed his body quite a bit (in a good way).

Matt: Thoughts on Rio2016 after the Harvard Health report? MLB moved the PR game, but this is a massive difference.
Klaw: They should move the Olympics. No question. Rio was already a disaster before Zika; this should just be the issue that pushes it past the inflection point.

Ryan: I know the swing and miss is the biggest reason you’re more down on Kyle Lewis than most. From what you’ve seen of his swing, is it fixable? Are there things a pro team could do to help him make more contact?
Klaw: It’s not a swing issue.

Steve: In 19 games at AA, Alex Bregman is at .314/.422/.671, with 7 HRs. Could he be in Houston soon? Where would they play him?
Klaw: I think he could play in the big leagues right now. I have no idea where they’d put him; his arm is going to be light for third base, but where else is there room?

Kevin: What is your opinion on Thomas Pnychon? I found Gravity’s Rainbow a slog to get through, but Mason & Dixon was a joy. Irrelevant, funny and fantastical.
Klaw: I loved Inherent Vice, loathed Gravity’s Rainbow, and just did not understand Lot 49.

Lyle: Dalton Kelly – 38th round pick out of UCSB for Seattle has a line of 355/442/464 in the MWL. (The MWL!) Anything of interest here? Or is he Just A Guy who’s had a hot month?
Klaw: You have got to look at the ages on these guys. He’s a 21-nearly-22-year-old college product in low A.

Jeff: Do you think a pitchers stats at the plate should be weighed when voting for Cy Young?
Klaw: No, of course not.

Jeff: Obviously Tyler Wilson isn’t this good and his BABIP and ERA will go up soon. What do you think his future is?
Klaw: Fifth starter. Below league-average. Doesn’t hurt that a third of his innings this year have come against the Twins.

Brian: Hello Keith, thanks for answering our questions. If you are Brian Cashman, which option would you choose to deal with Severino at this time. It is still early and it may or may not be a SSS but.. do you send him down to work on mechanics. ? Or do you leave him up here and try long relief or just keep the status quo and hope for the best ?
Klaw: Do they have a rotation replacement for him? If long relief were an option, I’d rather see that than send him down to dominate AAA hitters again. He’s already done that. Put him somewhere where he’ll be challenged and, if you trust your big league coaching staff, he can work with those coaches on whatever’s ailing him. I don’t have an easy answer; I can see his stuff is flat and up a lot, but is that mechanical? His delivery is the same (I’ve never liked it) as last year, right?

Raymond Gotha II: Klaw, my first time making it over to the new format!! Has your outlook on the Softball O’s changed?
Klaw: I think they’re a .500 team, which is about what they’ve been after the winning streak ended. The pitching is just too light. Gausman’s been better, although he should still miss a lot more bats with his stuff. Tillman’s not going to give up a homer every 40 innings all year.

Ben: What was your impression of Brandon Waddell coming out of Virginia? And have his first 40 IP this year made him worth watching going forward?
Klaw: Just a guy. Throws strikes, fringy stuff.

Jon: Glasnow and Taillon have been getting all the attention, but Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault have been putting up excellent numbers for Indianapolis this season. Do the Pirates have anything coming with those guys as well?
Klaw: Kuhl’s a prospect as a two-pitch reliever. Brault maybe less. Glasnow and Taillon get the attention because they profile as starters, and I’d bet one or both are up by this time next month.

AA Battery: Still SSS this year, but adding last year is it time to think that Puig won’t be able to really figure it out? Just can’t seem to stop swinging and missing…
Klaw: Can’t seem to hit a good fastball any more. Is it conditioning? Approach? Hard to believe he’s no longer the player he was in his first two seasons but you can absolutely pitch to him now.

Al: Do you think Oakland could go with a HS player like Moniak, Manning, Rutherford at #6?
Klaw: I have only heard them with college bats.

Bruce: You dont really talk about craft beer as much as food. Are you just not much of a beer drinker?
Klaw: I love beer. It doesn’t love me back.

Brian: Curious if you read jim bowden’s article up today about mlb execs and proposals for the new CBA. specifically related to the draft eligible players some GMs think players should have to “opt-in” so teams don’t lose picks when they decide to go back to school instead of signing. the other was to assign a set $ to each pick in the draft as opposed to a sliding pool. Pretty obvious both those proposals clearly benefit one side while screwing over the other. What are your thoughts?
Klaw: You lost me in your first seven words.

Kyle S: Can an MLB team legitimately tank? The players are playing hard because they want future jobs, the coaches and manager are in the same boat. Top picks aren’t guaranteed to be a future success so isn’t it at best a very risky proposal?
Klaw: I agree. It’s not “tanking” in the sense that the Sixers have been tanking since before I moved here. It’s actually the correct strategy for a non-contender given the current CBA in baseball.

darius: What is your view on Jameson Taillon, and has it changed with his strong AAA start? Strong 2? Potential 1 as a starter?
Klaw: A two. Never saw the command or changeup for an ace. Has size, velocity, potential out pitch in the slider. Kid’s a worker too. Really pulling for him this year after the disappointment of 2015.

Bret: What are your thoughts on the election going on in the States?
Klaw: I haven’t heard about this.

Eric: Keith, what do you know about Brent Honeywell besides having a sweet name it seems he also has a sweet screwball. He is dominating in advanced A Ball right now, do you know of any other top 100 prospects over the last few years that featured a screwball as his top secondary pitch? How would you rate his potential possible #2 starter?
Klaw: The Rays have deemphasized his screwball, so he’s more than just a novelty guy (he was that in college, though, so you’re not off base). I don’t think he rates quite that high; all the scouts I asked about him in the offseason had him as somewhere around a 4th starter.

Chris: The Mets seem to move their young hitters slowly through minors. Conforto spent some extra time in Brooklyn, Smith did a full year in High-A, and Rosario currently sticking around Port St. Lucie. Is this reflective of an organizational approach? Do you think it’s productive to let young guys get to the point of killing competition before being promoted?
Klaw: Conforto was a total cock-up. They’re just lucky he’s as good as he is because they mishandled him from day one. Smith is still very young for AA, and while Rosario should be in Binghamton now, he won’t be old for that level either. I don’t have a problem with how either of those guys have been handled.

K Welzein: I know the results are SSS, but is there anything you have seen in Almedys Diaz mechanically or in his approach at the plate that suggests he can be a regular to slightly above-average regular offensively for the Cardinals?
Klaw: Actually I’d just argue that anyone who can put the ball in play this often and play a competent middle infield is a regular. Even at a league-average BABIP, which would be much more in line with his time in the minors, he’d be that.

Matias: How is it possible that Bradley Jr went from being “trash”, talked about a potential trade for a mediocre Mariners reliever, to this exciting player that is putting great numbers, with some pop? Between the last months of last season and this start, we cant say its small sample size, right?
Klaw: Well, he was never trash, right? People buried him based on what was still a small sample but didn’t look like one. The part that’s surprising to me is that he’s hitting for average AND power. I thought he could do one or the other. I still kind of think with his low contact rate, he’s going to see the average drop, and he kind of has to sell out a little bit to get to this power. I’d rather see him cut down on the swing a little to improve his contact rate, but that’s kind of a stupid criticism when the guy is hitting .322 and slugging .610.

Ants: Given his start, is Tyler O’Neill now the #1 Mariners prospect? Would he crack in to the top 100 if re-evaulated today?
Klaw: I’ll accept the case for him as their top guy, given who else is/was ahead of him. His power is legit; it was the one thing I saw from him on the positive side in Fall League. But we’re still firmly in SSS territory and I’d like to see him maintain this better plate discipline for a full year, especially since he is right field only and has to hit to be an impact guy. (That sounds too negative. He’s definitely a prospect.)

Joey Butts: You’re an MLB GM. You’re interested in a potential draft pick that had previously been accused (but not convicted) of a serious domestic violence crime. What would the player have to say or do wherein you would feel okay in drafting him?
Klaw: Nothing. I’m out. Men who do that, or who sexually assault women, are not fixable.

Guesto: Any noteworthy prospects out of the state of Louisiana on your radar? LSU, Tulane, UNO are pretty good programs this season.
Klaw: Not for this draft. Good programs, yes, but not draft prospects.

Anonymous: Do you think Byron Buxton will pain out?
Klaw: I think he’ll pan out. He may cause Twins fans some pain until he does.

Kevin: Are Delvin Perez’s makeup concerns about maturity or are they of the Matt Bush variety?
Klaw: Maturity. Bush’s makeup turned out to be so much worse than I’d ever heard before he was drafted.

Marshall: Klaw great work by you and Longenhagen getting the top 100 together. You have (I think you have at least) characterized the draft a little weak at the top as compared to other years. What if any, are the strengths of this draft as compared to years past?
Klaw: Klaw about an hour ago

Paille: Can’t remember you ever wavering on J Bradley Jr as a starting major league center fielder
Klaw: Thank you, I don’t think I did. Weird thing is that I think UZR has his defense below average so far this year (very SSS). I thought he was a 7 defender out there, easy like Sunday morning.

addoeh: Are the number of years the biggest holdup for a Arrieta deal with the Cubs? I figure Cubs looking at 4-5 years with Arrieta 6-7 years.
Klaw: Seems like Arrieta wants free agent money/length which would be 6-8 years and there is no shot IMO the cubs do that.

wrburgess: Do you still see Amir Garrett and Daniel Mengden as bullpen guys? Is the SSS still too small to change the perspective?
Klaw: Did I? I thought I gave both guys a chance to start. Mengden is more command than stuff; Garrett more stuff than command or feel.

Mark: Dylan Cozens showing impressive power and decent walks rates but still striking out a little too much. Is he doing enough to warrant discussion as the Phillies RF of the future?
Klaw: No. And he’s basically doing it all at Reading, which is a good HR park.

Garrett: Having seemingly learn from the Peraza mistake, it looks like the Braves are letting Albies and Swanson each play SS until they are forced to make a decision. In there anything besides positional scarcity and future financials that makes it truly matter where either ends up?
Klaw: Not really. I think both could handle it.

Kay: Gsellman & Ynoa – useful pieces, despite very low K #s? Or just no place to make use of them on a crowded staff – they don’t strike me as ideal relievers.
Klaw: Useful pieces. Maybe as trade bait. Gsellman’s picked up a little velo now and it’s easier to buy him as a starter in the low 90s.

Matt: How often do players actually give a “hometown discount” to a team that happened to draft them- in reference to some criticism Arrieta seems to be taking over his refusal to offer such discounting?
Klaw: Very rare, and honestly, fuck off with demanding someone else take less money from a billionaire owner just to make some guy a happy fan.

BD: Brian Goodwin is at .330/.393/.500 at AAA. 25 yrs old. Back to being a prospect to you?
Klaw: No, not at that age and after three full years of failure, including a failed stint in AAA in 2014 and a demotion last year. I’d need more than 119 AB to buy back in.

Ben: Is it wrong to assume that Oakland favors college players? They’ve drafted HS players high in the past.
Klaw: I’m not assuming anything. That’s not how I do this. I talk to lots of sources to find out which teams are on which players.

Aaron: Kyle Zimmer. I know there is a lot of swing and miss there. But isn’t he better than anything else Cleveland is running out there?
Klaw: That would be Brad and he’s not ready for major league pitching.

Anonymous: Does Moncada make his debut in the majors this year and have a chance to compete for a full time job next year or should I add a year to both those?
Klaw: Add at least a year.

Fritz: How do you feel about A Moon Shaped Pool? Best since In Rainbows? Dismissed for lack of hyphens in the title?
Klaw: No idea. It’s not on Spotify and I don’t subscribe to those other services.

Kevin: Casey Gillaspie hitting .312 /.458/.570 in AA… hot start or something real?
Klaw: This might be something real. He’s doing everything that scouts who liked him in college (I did not, full disclosure) expected him to do, and he’s controlling the strike zone extremely well. Definitely bears watching.

Adam: How low would Groome have to get drafted to wind up at Vanderbilt?
Klaw: Not happening. Ignore the local media – some of those writers have been talking out of their asses this spring. I’ve never seen anything like it.

Justin R: Do you have any interest in murder mysteries/potboilers or not your genre?
Klaw: Yep, love Agatha Christie, Rex Stout, etc. Got two Lord Wimsey mysteries on my Kindle app now.

Anonymous: As a Phillies fan, I’m all aboard the Corey Ray Train. Do think they could get him for under slot and use the extra money in the later rounds?
Klaw: No one is getting full slot at 1-1. It’s a question for the Phillies of who’ll save them the most money relative to their valuation of the player – would you rather have Ray at $6 million or Senzel at $7 million or Puk at $5 million? (I made those numbers up, BTW.)

Steve: Zika is going to be in many places in the US this summer. Should they cancel the MLB season?
Klaw: I’ve spoken to a few experts about this one. Yes, Zika is coming. But we have much better mosquito-fighting programs here, and – here’s where I learned something – we have air conditioning, which drastically curtails the spread of mosquito-borne illnesses.

Aaron: How long do you leave Buxton at AAA? Is this a skill issue or confidence issue?
Klaw: I think it was a confidence issue. Don’t rush him back up. The major-league team isn’t going anywhere. But I wish they’d kept Kepler up to get those at bats.

John: Any chance Dylan Carlson sneaks into supp round?
Klaw: Yes but I think that’s a reach for a power-before-bat 1b-only guy. I had him at 100 on the list.

Scrapper: This stuff about Trea Turner needing to work on stuff is just “blah, blah, blah” shorthand for service time considerations, right? Why am I feeling differently about this than Kris Bryant’s 9 days last year?
Klaw: Yes. And because two months of Turner is a lot bigger deal than nine days of Bryant. If the Mets edge the Nats by a game for the division title, Nats fans will have reason to look at this decision with rage.

Anthony: Keith, rhp Luca Dalatri threw last night in the NJ championship game. He picking up any steam for the draft? A lot of scouts there.
Klaw: No, he’s a college guy.

J Shep: Do you think Nyquist wins the Preakness? If not, got a sleeper?
Klaw: I am not concerned with the Preakness, and the Preakness will not be concerned with me.

Brian: To offer us some context on this draft class, would the guys in the discussion for the top couple picks have been in the top 5 or top 10 in previous drafts?
Klaw: Yes. But I don’t think the guys in the mix for 1-1 would have been in the mix for that spot in any draft since 2006’s.

Guesto: What’s Trevor May’s outlook going forward? Pitching only out of the bullpen for the Twins, but he’s 26 and was valued at roughly 2 WAR in 2015 (when he made 16 starts). He’s a good bullpen arm, but feels like wasted talent by not starting.
Klaw: I think he’s a reliever. Has never shown the command to start.

Nick: Does Zack Collins to the Indians make sense? I know you don’t draft on need, but based on the few write-ups I have read he seems like someone who could move to a position like 1B rather quickly, and could help out a team like Cleveland that needs bats.
Klaw: It makes sense, they like him, but I don’t think he gets to them.

Jack: Does AJ Puk have a chance to be a number 1 in your opinion?
Klaw: No. However, I’m going to Gainesville Friday and Saturday and will see at least part of Puk’s start on Saturday before my flight back.

Josh: You were one of the first well-known baseball writers to get on the Schoop train. Still a believer, and is he a potential multi GG winner at 2B?
Klaw: Still a believer. Not sure about Gold Gloves though. He’s got to hit enough to win one of those.

Matthias: Do you have a go-to technique for duck breasts? I can get a result that is decent, and certainly better than chicken breasts, but not as good as the price would warrant. Related: made my first duck stock with carcass/bones from butchering a whole duck and holy crap! I did not realize that stock could be solid at room temperature.
Klaw: Best stock you’ll ever make. I sear duck breasts. I want to try to sous vide them some time, because getting them perfect in the center while searing them enough to get the skin crispy is a pain in the ass.

James: Keith, do you believe it should fall on the NFHS and NCAA to take better precautions to protect young pitchers from irreparable harm? I realize that kids are still going to blow out their arms, but isn’t it time for better regulations to at least limit the occurrences?
Klaw: Yes, it is. States are moving in this direction and I’d like to see the NCAA follow suit.

Kevin: Christian Stewart has had big power so far in Lakeland for the Tigers high A. Will he hit enough to be an everyday regular at a corner spot or is he more 4th OF type?
Klaw: I think he’s an everyday player. Power over hit, but enough hit to get there.

Josh: Do any of the international signings have a chance to be within the top 100 after signing in July?
Klaw: Unlikely. Maitan, maybe, but scouts I’ve talked to who’ve seen him say he’s the best prospect in VZ/DR this year but don’t speak of him the way they spoke of Sano in his signing year.

Dan-NJ: There is plenty awritten about the velocity of Benintendi moving through the ranks. He’s obviously overmatching A. Same w/ Rodgers – COL, but you don’t hear the same. Is it all about age/experience (SEC v. HS)? IMO, I would move both at the same speed if their results warranted.
Klaw: Well, one plays for Boston, and the other plays for … um … wait, I know this one …

Sean: KLAW – Ketel Marte has sure been a pleasant surprise for us Mariner fans that are used to all prospects going bust. He looks decent with the stick and able to play SS decently to my untrained eyes – what say you, Klaw?
Klaw: Breakout pick for me this year. I was too light on him as a prospect – he can really play short.

Sean: KLAW – SSS of course, but Zunino is hitting again! Is there still a player there?
Klaw: I think so. Rushed to the majors, got really worn down by catching. Good for the M’s for hanging on to him rather than giving up.

Bobby Evans: Should I be excited about my upcoming farm arm in rhp Sam Coonrod?
Klaw: Good reliever.

Alex: Why don’t big money teams go over the draft bonus pool like some do in the J2 signing? Losing a first round the next year and the 100% tax isn’t that tough when you have money to blow. Plus teams know more about draft prospects than the international prospects.
Klaw: I’ve asked this and been asked this and don’t have a great answer. I wonder if any team would call an audible, so to speak, before day two if an elite talent were just sitting there unpicked after day one, and decide to take him even if it meant punting on the following draft.

Matt: On Bregman, I don’t know anything about his defensive abilities, but the numbers say that Correa has not been a great defensive SS in the Majors. Any chance they could move Correa to 3B and have Bregman play SS?
Klaw: I’m defaulting to my old assessment of Correa’s future, which was that he’d be better off at third base. He did work his tail off to stay at short, but he might be elite at third. Worked out OK for Machado, at least.

Jeremy: Played 7 Wonders for the first time and was thoroughly confused by the instructions. Being a person who games a lot, do you have a go-to method for figuring out confusing rules?
Klaw: That game might have the most complicated written instructions for a game that’s actually quite simple and plays in under an hour. Usually we play once, screw up, and then go to Boardgamegeek to look at the Rules threads on the game.

KJ: Do you have a problem with Bryce Harper using naughty words?
Klaw: No. But I have a problem with him seeking out an ump postgame and saying what he said to that ump in full view of a camera.

Benny: Have you or Eric personally seen everyone on the top 100, or do you rely on the evaluations of your peers in the scouting community to rank the guys near the bottom of the list?
Klaw: Definitely haven’t seen everyone – impossible to see some of the pop-up guys lower down the list – but between last summer and this spring I think the only top 25 guy neither of us will see is Quantrill, who hasn’t pitched at all after TJ. Ian Anderson is the top guy I won’t see personally, I think, because he’s made just one official appearance around weather and his bout of pneumonia.

Marshall: At what point in your mind does SSS stop being a sample and simply becoming true reality …more than 150 at bats?
Klaw: Oh yeah. Double that and we can talk.

Sterling: Is Archie Bradley a AAAA pitcher, or do you still have faith? He can’t seem to get big league hitters to whiff.
Klaw: Put him in the 7th inning and tell him to air it out, fastball/curveball.

Raymond Gotha II: Did you ever see this type of potential out of Machado? I’m from B-More and I myself only saw something more like 300/350/475 with like 25 hr or so. I guess I was less dubious that the line drive and doubles power was gonna turn into 40hr power
Klaw: Loved him as an amateur – I ranked him 2nd in the class after Harper, over Taillon. Called him A-Rod Lite.

Ben: Reaction to Edwin Diaz’s conversion to RP?
Klaw: Expected. Think he could be very good there.

Travis: Is it still likely that Xander turns in to a 20 HR guy?
Klaw: I believe he will.

Bill: Have you heard any recent news on Kevin Maitan and the Braves? Are they still likely to sign him? Thanks.
Klaw: This has been locked in for a year already.

Jake: Where would Seth Beer have ranked?
Klaw: Impossible to say. If he were eligible, he’d be a nearly 20-year-old HS player and we’d all be downgrading him for that.

Alex: Re Louisiana prospects: Jake Rogers and Stephan Alemais at Tulane seems to be getting a fair share of love draft wise. You don’t see them as draft prospects?
Klaw: No, not in the top three rounds certainly.

Kevin: What college has the best baseball facilities that you have visited?
Klaw: LSU’s are ridiculous. They’re better than some MLB spring training facilities.

Hogie: Drew Ward at .301/.388/.549 . Still only 21. Back to being a prospect for you? If no- whats he gotta do?
Klaw: No. Repeating the level. Still needs to go to 1b.

Kay: Did I see you post something about Dylan Bundy throwing ~300 pitches as an amateur? How does that happen? I get that not every kid is gonna be a pro – but there are definitely going to be a few who never make it because of stupidity like this.
Klaw: Over the course of a 3-4 day tournament, yes. His dad would often brag about how Dylan had built up for this workload. Now the kid has calcification in his shoulder and can’t miss a bat. Orioles need to try to pass him through optional waivers so he can go to AAA.

Brad: Any chance Atlanta could get two of Will Benson, Lowe and Keiboom at 40 and 44?
Klaw: I think that’s very unlikely.

Michael: When a player like Kevin Pillar gets drafted so late and is never labeled a top prospect, do you consider that a scouting failure or just the randomness of the job?
Klaw: Just the randomness of the job. He’s got a .305 career OBP in the majors; he has to be an elite defensive CF to be anything at all.

Mike: Anything new on Cal Quantrill?
Klaw: Yes, in the top 100 post. You should read that. I spent a lot of time on it.

Tom: Already this season, Archer has reference “Of Mice and Men” and “Encyclopedia Brown.” If they feature “Animal Farm” and “The Great Brain” before season’s end, I might spontaneously combust.
Klaw: I gave up on the show with the Vice season.

Mike: Your description of Dylan Carlson sounds a lot like your feelings on Rowdy Tellez, who came out of the same high school. Do you see them as comparable players?
Klaw: No. Tellez was awful. DH only with power and no bat speed.

Tom: Level of 1 to PANIC how should I feel about Matz having forearm issues and missing his next start?
Klaw: It’s never good when a guy who’s had trouble staying healthy has another arm issue.

Jay: Did you hear that smelling farts can cure cancer?
Klaw: One study showed that reading Klawchat every week can make you last 30% longer in bed. Science is never wrong!

Ants: Have you read Ann Leckie’s Imperial Radch trilogy? Thoughts?
Klaw: I thought Ancillary Justice was OK and haven’t read the rest.

Michael: The guys on the radio are saying Xander has to hit 20 home runs to be really good. What should I do with my radio?
Klaw: I don’t even own a radio.

Dave: You were high on Alec Hansen last November and have moved him down in your rankings after a lousy spring. How hard is it to know what you are going from him?
Klaw: You don’t until someone gets to check him out physically and see if there’s an injury behind the awful performance.

MTM: Gonsalves is slaying people in high A. Projections for him?
Klaw: Unchanged. Back-end starter. FB-CH, below avg breaking ball.

Greg: Does Ian Anderson fall in the draft because of his lack of pitching this spring? I wonder how much his short season will affect his stock, since his health woes weren’t related to his mechanics at all
Klaw: I have heard he could still go very high, because he was so good last summer, but yeah, it’s hard to go to your owner and say you want to give a kid $3 million based on ten innings of scouting.

Ridley Kemp: Have you ever been so repulsed by a book you just couldn’t finish it? That was Henry and June for me.
Klaw: Running With Scissors. Not so much that it was graphic, but that it was pandering. I finished Naked Lunch and Tropic of Cancer but didn’t like either of them.

forever it: Alex Verdugo killing it in AA as a 19-year-old. Has his ceiling risen for you since the start of the year?
Klaw: Nope. Because … wait for it … SSS.

Klaw: And that’s all for this week. Thanks as always for the questions. I’ll have the 2006 redraft column up on Monday, my first “mock” first-round projection on Wednesday, and another chat next Thursday. Hope to see a few of you in Gainesville this weekend.

Klaw: An afterlife for a silverfish? No, just Klawchat.

Shane: Will Amed Rosario be a top 50 prospect by end of the season?
Klaw: I think he already was one. We do need to see him promoted rather than beating up a league he already faced last season.

Bob: A couple of colleagues on your network who will remain unnamed (PTI) were speculating yesterday about how many games the Cubs might win. 116? 118? Hey, they’re good and already have 20 wins in the bank but c’mon.
Klaw: Yeah, that’s not your source for baseball analysis. Were they also projecting the Phillies to win 90+?

Josh: How much stock do you put in the July 2 international player rankings? I imagine there is even more variance there with how individual teams value specific players than in the Rule 4 draft
Klaw: Very little, but I’m not criticizing the guys who put those rankings together – you’re talking about mostly 15-year-olds, sometimes kids who haven’t been seen in months because they’ve been locked up already with various not-that-legal deals. It’s an impossible ask.

Aaron S: Heard anything on Harrison Bader? Seems to be doing well at AA after a double promotion and first year after being drafted. Was also one of the 10 youngest AA players at the beginning of the year
Klaw: Problem is he’s not a CF. I think he can hit some, but he’s going to have to rake (and what he’s done so far is very flukish) to be a regular in a corner.

Zach B: How much do you get to scout international prospects given how much time you dedicate to the amateur draft and minor league systems?
Klaw: I see them when they sign. There’s very little value in seeing July 2nd guys now when it’s probably two years before they’re even on the pro prospect radar.

Jack: Any rumors on who the phillies might target with their second round pick?
Klaw: No, nor do I expect to hear anything on picks in the 40s and 50s.

Adam: What is Ben Gamel’s ceiling?
Klaw: Probably everyday player.

Teddy Roosevelt: If I said Phillies took Puk, Reds took Lewis and Braves took Ray, your reaction would be: “absolutely!”, “meh”, or “but, but Groome….”?
Klaw: Lewis at 2 is a reach for me. But if you said Puk-Senzel-Ray, I’d say “OK” and assume the Rockies would take Groome. Lewis has the upside, but he swings and misses too often against bad competition for me to see him as a #2 pick. I’m lighter on him and Senzel than the industry.

Me (Not You): Are we nearing a reappraisal of Lindor now that he’s continuing to hit so well? I knew you were never all that low on his bat, mind you, but this level of offense could allow him to sneak into MVP consideration some years, and that seems surprising.
Klaw: I had him as a top ten prospect in baseball, so I think he’s within the range of what I expected from him. Now, if he hits 20 HR this year, that would be surprising, and yes he’d be a solid MVP candidate if he becomes that kind of guy.

Kareem: Tyler Danish seems to be making some strides repeating AA, is he still solely projectable as a RP?
Klaw: I can’t see him as a starter with that delivery or going through a lineup 3x with his stuff. I could see him as a really effective long guy like Adam Warren last year, making some spot starts, but mostly going through lineups once and getting groundballs.

Keith: Is Severino having issues based on your scouting report ?
Klaw: If you’re saying did my evaluation predict what’s happening now, I think that’s too facile. His stuff looks very straight and mostly up in the zone right now, though, and that is at least partly related to the delivery.

James: With Rutherford already being 19 and Moniak being 17 (for another week), how much would teams value that when drafting?
Klaw: I think most teams have Moniak over Rutherford right now, because Moniak is the better overall athlete AND because he’s over a year younger.

Dylan: Thoughts on the new Radiohead song?
Klaw: It’s certainly interesting.

Joe: Thoughts on Will Craig? 1st round?
Klaw: No. Second round. Grooved swing, feasts a lot on bad pitching, no position.

Anonymous: Isn’t it time to move Benintendi up?
Klaw: It’s been a month, and I don’t object to a team saying a guy should get around the league a little longer before a promotion. He’s not going to spend all year in high-A.

John: Any new information on how Delvin Perez is doing? Are the Reds in on him at #2?
Klaw: I mentioned him in my post this morning. I heard the Reds were in heavy at Caguas this week to watch him.

Kevin: Is Zack Collins gonna go in the top 15, considering his Schwarber-like profile?
Klaw: He’s not like Schwarber, but I’ve heard two teams specifically on him in the top ten, Oakland and possibly the White Sox.

Joetown, CO: I realize the old stat of Total Average isn’t perfect, but isn’t it much better than OPS? Why shouldn’t it be the most common standard of a batter’s production?
Klaw: It’s garbage. Just throwing a bunch of numbers together with no regard to whether they even belong in the equation, let alone whether they’re weighted appropriately.

Konrad: Who can you see the Brewers taking with their first round pick this year?
Klaw: Best player available. That could be Ray, Delvin, maybe Lewis or Senzel. Don’t see Groome getting there. Don’t think they’d take Pint. I wonder if they’d consider Manning, as Ray Montgomery isn’t afraid to take a high-ceiling prep arm.

Dad: Any scenario (besides strategic $ allocation/signability) in which a team should ever go against BPA in the draft?
Klaw: No, you named the only one. And even then, in hindsight, did the Royals do well to reach for Dozier at 8 so they could get Manaea at 34? Dozier is repeating AA now, and may not be anything, while Manaea was a useful trade piece but not quite as good as expected. And at the time that seemed like a really smart strategy on their part.

John: Hey Keith! Thanks for everything that you do for us readers. I was curious if you had considered doing your own podcast like Joe Posnanski does. I really enjoyed it when you had yours through ESPN. Thanks!
Klaw: I have no spare time right now for anything new.

jimmy: Are you concerned about Shelby Miller or Zack Greinke’s starts?
Klaw: Miller I’m concerned about – he doesn’t look right. I wonder if he’s hurt, or at least physically off. Greinke I think will be fine.

Shelby: Is Oakland only targeting college hitters at 6?
Klaw: I think that’s their preference, likely Senzel or Collins, although they had a bunch of guys there to see Manning (who’s local to them, so it’s easier to just drive up to watch him) on Monday when I was there.

Joshua: Keith, what numbers would you see Trea Turner putting up if he were brought up tomorrow? Obviously one answer is “better than Espinosa”, but how much better? Thanks.
Klaw: I think he could post a .340 OBP, steal a bunch of bases, and play above average defense at short right now. That’s worlds better than the zero they’re getting.

Formerly the Smasher: Could the Jays be a landing spot for Ryan Braun?
Klaw: Doubt it. They don’t appear to be a team that’s looking to take on any money, much less a bad contract.

Eric: When scouting amateur pitchers, what is the first thing you look for? Throwing strikes? Stuff?
Klaw: Stuff is the first thing you see, but if the delivery’s bad, I’m a lot less interested.

Dan B: Met you on Market St in Philly this past weekend. Thanks again for the time. Do you think Tommy Joseph can be an average major league first baseman?
Klaw: Yep, good to meet you too – you caught me right as I was stepping into High Street for lunch. I do not think that on Joseph, and he’s got no history of staying healthy, unfortunately.

Joshua: Keith, I saw that you were recently in Sacramento and went to Magpies and enjoyed it. What did you get there, I’ve been meaning to go since they recently moved to that location. Thanks.
Klaw: Pork belly starter, duck confit salad, ice cream sandwich. Hard to beat that.

Kyle: Is this the weakest crop of college pitchers… Ever? Sheffield and Hudson seem to be the consensus 2 and 3 behind Puk, what with Krook/Hansen/Jefferies falling apart or getting hurt. A 6’0″ TJS guy as the best or second-best NCAA pitcher is hard to believe.
Klaw: Don’t agree on Sheffield as 2 or 3. He’s a reliever all the way. I’ve got Sedlock at Illinois over him, and Connor Jones too despite inferior stuff because he can sink it and has starter size. Dane Dunning might be better. Robert Tyler’s got comparable stuff and has a better frame. But yes, the college starter crop is all kinds of terrible. Keep an eye on Corbin Burnes at St. Mary’s – i think he’ll go sooner than we expect because someone will say they’d prefer the safety of the college pitcher to the risk of the high school guy.

Almost Dad: My wife is due in two months. Mother’s day is Sunday. Good move or bad move to recognize her this weekend? I can see +’s and -‘s of each.
Klaw: Good move. Or, bad move to fail to do so, one you will hear about for the next fifty years. Also congratulations.

Mike: Thoughts on Drake Fellows? Top 3 rounds?
Klaw: No, don’t see that.

Jason: This is probably a dumb question, but what do teams do with 16 year olds kids they draft? Do they throw them into Rookie ball? Or do they keep them in extended spring training?
Klaw: Instructs in September, extended spring the following April/May, then rookie ball (GCL or AZL). Rinse, repeat.

Adam: Rumor is Braves want draft picks even if they take on bad contracts…..if they were to take on Braun to get Lucroy and that end of 1st pick what do you think they would have to give up? Newcomb?
Klaw: This isn’t a rumor, nor did I find it newsworthy – almost every team drafting up top wants more picks so they can spread the money around. The Brewers do not have an end of 1st pick they can trade.

Adam: How does Groome compare to Beckett out of High School?
Klaw: Beckett is before my time.

Andrew: With Garret Richards now having some sort of injury, should the Angels sign Tim Lincecum?
Klaw: He’s not going to start, and unless Timmy Jim comes out throwing 92-94 tomorrow I doubt he’s going to get many major-league offers.

Joetown, CO: It’s far less garbage than the illogical OPS and most meaningless batting average. It’s biggest flaw is not weighting a single more than a walk, but otherwise, it tells you how many bases a batter is good for per plate appearance. That’s better than garbage and much better than most stats most commonly used now.
Klaw: No, it’s actually worse than OPS, and that’s saying something. It treats a stolen base the same as a single. It penalizes a hitter for each GIDP, so the same hitter will have a lower TA just because he’s got a slow runner who gets on base a lot hitting in front of him. It’s a brain-dead stat, one that sounds good but makes no logical sense.

Ciscoskid: So Magpie, how was it? I would have sent you to 4 other places had I known. Were you here for the Boras Classic?
Klaw: It was absolutely superb. I doubt I could have had a better meal. I was there Monday to see Matt Manning pitch.

Honest Abe: Is Dave Stewart gonna look at Blair’s numbers at the end of the year, then glance at Shelby’s and then throw his laptop against the wall?
Klaw: I don’t think Stew is the looking-at-numbers sort.

Aa: Where do you think high school teammates, Luca Dalatri and Brandon Martorano, will be picked in the draft?
Klaw: Way below the range I cover.

Richie: I’m not wuite sure what to make of Wuilmer Becerra. On the one hand he’s hitting .400 and his k and bb rates are showing good signs…..on the other hand he’s a supposed power bat who has just 1 hr in his last 73 gms. Should we be concerned, excited, a little of both?
Klaw: Those last 73 games came largely in two homer-suppressing ballparks. He’s also still 21.

Rob: Jose Quintana, probably the most underrated pitcher in the mlb. Gets better and better. Adam Eaton is another White Sox player that flies under the radar.
Klaw: This is Klawchat. This is not RobChat. Try again, this time with a question in there somewhere.

Eric Johnson: Can King Felix survive at 90?
Klaw: Come on, he’s not that old.

Jack: Are the phillies locked in on Puk? Or do they not know yet?
Klaw: They do not know. Nor should they, given the date – it’s may 5th, in case you didn’t know – and the draft class this year.

AD: Ronald Guzman—is his start for real or just SSS? Have you gotten any scouting reports on him?
Klaw: It’s 22 games. Also it’s May 5th.

JR: Feels like there has been a lot of talk about “tanking” this year, I’ve seen a few columns from Buster and others being critical of the strategy. What are your thoughts? I would prefer my team tank and have the opportunity at a high ceiling in a few years, as opposed to signing vets and doom your team to being stuck in middle (not good enough to make postseason, not bad enough to get high draft pick).
Klaw: I don’t think of it as “tanking” like in the NBA, but the current rules around MLB’s draft and international spending provide tremendous incentive for teams to do what the Astros did and now Atlanta, the Brewers, and the Phillies are doing. There is no point in spending money just to get from 68 wins to 72.

Mark: Have you heard any reports about Giolito this Spring? Tiny sample size, but he’s struggled a bit in AA, and I was wondering if he was focusing on the changeup, and/or if he’d had any dip in velocity.
Klaw: I heard Maddux tinkered with his delivery, which, if true, would be the dumbest fucking thing I have ever heard of a pitching coach doing with a prospect, because Giolito’s delivery did not need tinkering.

DanO: Any insight on what the Mets are looking for since they have 2 picks in Round 1? They don’t appear to lean heavily in any one direction from year to year. Nimmo/Cecchini/Smith vs. Conforto.
Klaw: Nimmo was a previous scouting director so don’t lump him in with the others. I think they prefer the safety of bats with the first pick, but are otherwise just best player available. This year that’s probably a bat anyway.

Marshall: Klaw, this question relates to Buxton, because in what I think has almost become a lost year for the franchise that he should be starting in CF every day. Do you believe that a young hitters “confidence” is ever destroyed to the point that they lose the ability to hit. Or (as I believe) is that the player simply never was going to develop the hitting skill set necessary to succeed at the major league level?
Klaw: Klaw about an hour ago

Ryan: How does Mike Soroka’s ceiling compare to the other arms in Atlanta’s sysetem?
Klaw: Lower. Like his arm slot. #rimshot

David/Indiana: Are you a fan of Faulkner? If so, what is your favorite?
Klaw: Yes. Absalom, Absalom is one of my top 20 novels ever.

Alex: Would you vote David Ortiz into the HOF? Will he make it? Edgar Martinez seems to have no chance, but Ortiz is a much bigger part of baseball history.
Klaw: No, I don’t think he’s a Hall of Famer even before we talk about the failed test.

Patrick?: Think Zunino will make an impact in the MLB? He is crushing AAA right now. Or is he just a AAAA player?
Klaw: I do think so.

Joe: The Dbacks announcers often use Nick Ahmed, Branon Drury, and Randall Delgado (?) as proof that the Upton trade wasn’t bad. I’m still not happy with the return we got and how the FO did everything they could to run down his value, but how would you say it has ended up over the 3+ seasons since that trade was made?
Klaw: It was a total disaster. They took fifty cents on the dollar for Upton and probably ended up losing a nickel along the way. Players like Ahmed aren’t that hard to find.

Brian: What do you think the Rangers see in Chi Chi Gonzalez? He has never had an out pitch, and yet he was the pitcher they seemed determined to hold on to last year when they were trading away Eickoff, Thompson, Asher, etc.
Klaw: His cutter was an out pitch. Not sure why it hasn’t been so in the upper levels.

tony: Are you going to be on any more game broadcasts this year?
Klaw: Currently scheduled for three more, next one is June 8th.

Jack: Would selecting AJ Puk number 1 at a discounted price be a bad selection?
Klaw: No, not at all. I think taking Lewis there would probably be one, given the contact issues, but you could make a good argument in his favor too. If I could be satisfied that Delvin’s immaturity was not a real impediment to him becoming a star, I’d take him. Best tools in the draft, doesn’t turn 18 till October, stays at shortstop.

Zach: HI Keith, have you caught any of Gray’s first couple starts for CO? Just wondering if there have been any signs if progress there recently.
Klaw: Looked terrible in what I saw – fastball is true and hitters have no trouble seeing it.

Josh K: Still high on Gausman upside?
Klaw: Yes, if healthy, and if the Orioles just leave him the hell alone. Looks like he’s now on the middle of the rubber, not perfect but better than where Buck and company shoved him last year.

James: What’s your take on Sale not saying in so many words that he’s pitching to contact, but rather, finding more “economical” ways to retire batters in order to pitch deeper into games? Seems like a risky tack for a guy who’s good for 11 K/9 all season long.
Klaw: Don’t know what to make of it, although I think the White Sox could certainly ask him not to do that because they might feel they’re better off with him averaging six innings and being more effective when he’s pitching.

Darkwing: Is there any artist (writer, filmmaker, musician, etc) whose work you like, but you don’t like them personally? (ex. I like some of Polanski’s films, but don’t like the guy for obvious reasons)
Klaw: Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris is wonderful but he’s a terrible human being. I even like some Bing Crosby movies but he even copped to being a horrible, abusive father and husband in his first marriage.

Joshy: What do you think about Ronald Acuna? Do you think he could develop some power and become a near 5-tool player?
Klaw: Wouldn’t go that far but I love the bat and the approach for someone so young.

Luke: We already play Ticket to Ride and Carcassone. What’s the next game I should introduce to my 7-year old?
Klaw: Splendor. My daughter loves it.

Louis: How would you grade out Benintendi? 70 hit/60 power/60 run/55 arm/55 fielding?
Klaw: I love Benintendi, but everyone is getting way too excited about a college prospect raking in high-A. He might be a superstar – it wouldn’t really surprise me at all – but I think we need to see him in AA. The SEC to high-A is kind of a lateral move for a 21-year-old.

Harry: How many mock drafts are you doing, and when is the first one?
Klaw: Four. First one May 18th. Usually then it’s two weeks till the second one, one about 4-5 days before the draft, then one the morning of the draft.

J-Doug: To your readers who think TA is better than OPS, this has been studied to death by sabermetricians and OPS, while not great, beats true average every time (predicting the number of runs scored in an inning about 30% better). If you really want an offense stat that doesn’t mess with the denominator, try wOBA.
Klaw: Yep, wOBA, while not quite intuitive, answers the question of hitter value (in a rate stat) far better.

Jim: Think Dakota Hudson will go to the Red Sox at number 12?
Klaw: I think he goes in the 10-17 range. Wouldn’t get any more specific yet.

TestaDuda: I’ve heard early reports that next year’s draft class is better than this one. Do you agree and if so is it 2011 better? 2005 better? Just looking for a comp or context.
Klaw: The very top of next year’s draft is better. I don’t know about the depth, but there are more guys who could emerge as strong 1-1 candidates next year than there are for this year.

Scott of Lincolnshire: Gleyber Torres, yes it’s early, but is it still early? He’s super young for the level, but the results aren’t good.
Klaw: He’s super young for the level. So is Devers. Torres is four months older than Blake Rutherford and three years younger than Dansby Swanson.

Jeff: Speaking of Woody Allen – did you read his Hollywood Reporter interview that was just recently published? Spoiler alert: He’s still weird.
Klaw: Beyond creepy, although it certainly seemed to fit my own suspicions that he’s some kind of narcissist and/or sociopath.

Harold V: I like how you didn’t include the Cubs on your list of teams that have tanked.
Klaw: When did they tank?

Jay: Matt Cain still seems to have velocity and movement with his pitches – but not command. Given his track record, wouldn’t you expect him to regain the command over time?
Klaw: Velocity is down and if there’s indeed more effort required just to get that velocity then that’s going to kill command. I’m out.

fill: how has aj minter looked and whats his potential
Klaw: I have no new reports on him (or a lot of guys yet – it’s early and I’m draft-focused) but I saw him pre-TJ and saw a middle reliever at best. Short guy, bad delivery, was 90-92 after the first inning.

Mitch: What round will Cooper Johnson be drafted in? Great defensive tool but the bat is a ?
Klaw: Second round. Maybe sandwich because there’s no catchers in the class. I think you nailed the summary on him.

mcf1417: Who are some of those 1-1 types for 2017? Inquiring Braves fans need to know.
Klaw: Jeren Kendall and Kyle Wright at Vandy. Alex Faedo at Florida. Alex Lange at LSU. Tanner Houck at Missouri. And that’s without even touching the HS crop, like the socal pitcher Hunter Greene who’s already 94-96.

Drew: Thank you for singing the praises of Empire Falls. I just finished it and loved it. Which of his should I read next?
Klaw: Straight Man is the funniest. Nobody’s Fool is probably the next-best novel.

rico: what’s the point of a mock draft 4 days before and then the morning of? what changes in 4 days regarding ability?
Klaw: A mock draft is not about ability. It’s a projection of who’s taking which player. This confusion comes from idiots posting “mock drafts” months ahead that are nothing more than lists of names with zero information on who teams would actually consider taking.

Youth_Movement: What are your thoughts these days about Dom Smith? You think he’ll be able to “prevent his shirt buttons from popping out”?
Klaw: He’s been raking and showing more power. Still heavy, still playing good defense at first.

Greg: Seems like a lot of the industry has become more optimistic on Kyle Lewis as the spring goes on. I know you were down on him, and I’m not suggesting you should change your mind because others have, but I’m curious if you’re at least somewhat more optimistic on him?
Klaw: No, I think he is the same player he’s always been. Maybe folks see the paucity of good college bats and figure after Ray and perhaps Senzel (more certain, lower ceiling) Lewis is next on the list so you’d better learn to like him. They’re not entirely wrong if that’s the case.

Rian: corey ray is what type of player in 5 years
Klaw: I’ve had a bunch of people compare him to Ray Lankford. I think that’s a reasonable optimistic scenario.

James: Is it foolish to think Berrios could be a No. 1 someday? Or are the tools just not there?
Klaw: The stuff is not there. Fastball is flat. Offspeed stuff is certainly good, but not good enough to make him top 15 in the majors.

Greg: You’re high on the Atlanta system, obviously. When do you see them back in competition for a playoff spot?
Klaw: Probably three years out from that. Depends on whether Liberty gives them some money to spend once they’re in the new stadium.

JR: Draft prospects, minor leaguers, major leaguers – how are you able to keep up with all these players?
Klaw: For the next few weeks I won’t do much work on anything but the draft. I can catch up on pro stuff after that, and by then my friends who are pro scouts will have worked through a lot of their assigned coverage anyway.

JD: SSS aside, anything (team, player, trend) that’s surprised you so far in the MLB season?
Klaw: The White Sox look like they might be sufficiently different that I would tell their fans yes, they’re legitimate contenders, probably better than everyone forecasted.

Paul/DC: Have you ever read any of Tim O’Brien books? Going After Cacciato and The Things They Carry are two of my favorite books
Klaw: Read the latter. It was good, not top 100 for me.

Brad: Do you ever wonder if this chat is one person just using different names?
Klaw: Actually this chat is twelve different AI scripts all posting as “Klaw.”

Oren: Is it feasible to hold hope for Dylan Bundy succeeding at this point? Being out of options is such an additional challenge.
Klaw: He’s not healthy. He has calcification in his shoulder, and now his stuff is down across the board. He’s gotten just four swings and misses on his fastball all season. I’m sorry to see it, but I can’t find reasons for optimism right now.

Matt: I’ve loved almost every book and board game recommendation from you, but Absalom Absalom just did not do it for me. It was such a slog, boring and kinda difficult to read. It seems very different than most of the other books on your list. Why the high praise?
Klaw: It is indeed difficult to read, but I find the prose scintillating and the story arc – the fall of the South from the end of the Civil War through the 1920s, told through the decline of one family – absolutely perfect.

James: What bothers me about you Tyreek Hill stance is what happens to his victim and child? They deserve financial means – a significant piece of his NFL salary. I’d rather he continue to seek therapy and pay for the care of an innocent child with a 500K salary than be barred from the league and have his victim and child receive nothing.
Klaw: Because therapy doesn’t do jack. Men who choke women are not fixable; choking itself is a huge predictor of future attempts to kill. Your argument could easily be used to argue against any abuser going to jail, because instead he could be working and paying child support. And free to kill someone, too.

Rob: Is there any hope for Jorge Soler? He shows patience and looks the part but watching him swing at curve balls is really, really ugly.
Klaw: Yes, but he’ll need to play every day somewhere.

Josh: Do you think Urias or DeLeon will/should be called up this year? And in what role(s)?
Klaw: I think both will, probably both in the rotation at least temporarily while the Dodgers wait for the veteran starters to return from the DL. I think DeLeon might be better suited to long relief to break him in.

Julia: Dusty Baker. Just…why. That’ s my only question. WHY. (you can insert any phrase involving unbelievable decisions that somehow haven’t hurt the team much yet)
Klaw: Because veterans and leadership and it’s not even like he says stuff that makes sense any more.

Kyle: Thoughts on the connection between the showcase circuit and arm injuries? About halfway through The Arm and curious of your thoughts
Klaw: Agree completely with Jeff’s premise there. He’s right about every target in there, from the scouts who flood these events (I go to a couple too, because the kids are there) to Perfect Game’s model aiming at younger and younger kids. We truly do need these kids to pitch less, and to stop trying to show off for us by throwing harder, which means putting the radar guns away until they’re 17 or 18.

Klaw: That’s all for this week’s chat – thank you as always for your questions. I’ll be back next Thursday, by which point Eric and I will have posted top 100 ranking for the draft too.

Klaw: How can I put this in a way so as not to offend or unnerve? Klawchat.

TNizzle: Seems like it could be a big year for northeast HS baseball. Groome, Anderson, Jones, Kiriloff, Bakst…I know here in NJ there are more potential top ten round guys that I can ever remember. Outlier or trend?
Klaw: Outlier. I’d add Kranick, Laskey, and Mondile to the watch list, at least. Bakst is a Stanford commit and probably unsignable because he’d rather go get his swing ruined.

Bobby: How good can Mitch Keller become? Does he have Glasnow type breakout potential? He’s off to a great start.
Klaw: Totally different pitcher. I wouldn’t comp them just because they’re in the same org. But I liked Keller a ton as an amateur and now that he’s healthy I think we’re seeing his potential again.

Nick: Have you heard anything on Lazarito since the last workout? Only a little over 2 months to July 2nd and it seems like we’re in a lull.
Klaw: I’m assuming he has a deal in place to sign on July 2nd so the news and workouts have stopped.

Nick: Based on what we know now (a lot can change) but it seems like Corey Ray will be the Phillies top pick, no? I can’t imagine they’d want to take a risk on Groome or Perez. After Ray, the college talent drops a little. I can’t see them making Lewis or Senzel 1-1. Maybe Puk but Ray seems the safer bet at this point. I guess we’ll have to see how the college season plays out.
Klaw: I think it would be Puk if it were today, but they’re still undecided. I agree that Ray would be a better call than Lewis, but if you want certainty, you take Senzel, who has less ceiling but is probably the most likely big league regular in the draft.

Kevin: The Phillies are over .500. Wtf?
Klaw: It’s April 28th.

Owen (London): Hi Keith- Is it just me or is there some connection in the way that former catchers tend to make the most obdurate managers ? Girardi’s comments on the shift were just so peculiar. Any idea why this might be ?
Klaw: Not just peculiar, but petulant. If you don’t like the shift, overcome it.

scottdsimon: How, if at all, is the (fluid, retroactively determined) Super 2 “deadline” affected by teams promoting pitchers for one start (e.g., Blair, Snell) and then sending them back to the minors?
Klaw: It’s not. It’s all around service time within that class. Those guys get a day of service, and that day will just count like any other days of service when their class comes up for super 2 eligibility. It does mean they’re on the 40-man, however, which I don’t think was the case for Blair.

Luis: Reading about Pint touching 100, I couldn’t help but think of Tyler Kolek. How do those two compare at the time Kolek was drafted?
Klaw: Pint’s a better athlete and flashes better offspeed stuff. Neither throws enough strikes.

Julian: Okay, so this whole Jean Segura thing is a weird lightning rod. He’s had a terrific start. And getting away from Milwaukee for emotional reasons may have helped. Except that four things are pretty obvious if you take five seconds. 1) It’s 16 games. 2) He’s done this before – the start of 2013. And then he hit a wall after May and plateaued for several years. 3) His underlying numbers are complete outliers. His BABIP is .363, and 15% of his flyballs are homers – his previous bests are .326 and 7%. In other words – either unsustainable, a fluke, or completely different player. 4) He’s still basically the same player – he has 2 walks so far this year, which is fine when you hit .347, but stops being fine the second you drop below, say .320. Which is a long-winded way of asking: Why do you think people take valid, supported criticism and make it purely personal? Yes, anonymity helps. But what benefit do they gain from turning a hot streak of 95 good at-bats into proof of wrongness?
Klaw: I truly have no idea why people act so stupid over, in particular, a tiny little sample, or, in general, a scouting report or prediction that turns out to be wrong. It’s why I block and mute so many people on Twitter and Facebook, though. If you don’t really understand how small sample sizes work, or when a player’s performance is likely to regress, that’s fine. When that drives uncivil (or worse) behavior, that’s not fine.

Mac: The Arrieta/PED discussion is pretty ridiculous right considering 1. He always had great stuff with Baltimore and 2. Baltimore has a history of being terrible at developing pitching
Klaw: The “discussion” is ridiculous because it’s absolutely, totally baseless. I thought First Take’s segment was irresponsible – you cannot speculate about players being on PEDs when there is zero evidence to support the claim. Arrieta has never failed a test, and never been linked in any way to PED usage. Also, if someone knows about a magic pill that cleans up your mechanics and improves your command, I’d love to talk about a distribution agreement.

Magdee: Why is aledmys Diaz doing this? Fluke? Small sample size?
Klaw: It’s April 28th.

Nic, AZ: Domingo Acevedo has had a nice start to the season as an SP, do you think he has a chance to start long term or is he destined for relief?
Klaw: With that delivery I don’t see any way he can start.

Ben: Chances of Manaea, Berrios and Fulmer sticking in the bigs?
Klaw: All about team plans, because I think all three are ready to contribute in a major-league rotation.

David: Seems not that long ago we thought of Orlando Arcia as a slick fielding SS with a modest hit tool. Was his offensive progression aniticipated and is it sustainable in the major leagues?
Klaw: Anticipated, no, sustainable, yes.

Something: Can I start to question how conforto made it to 10? I know he can’t maintain what he’s doing now, but he looks like a perennial all-star.
Klaw: Teams killed him for being LF only and/or for having too little power. He was 8th on my board, and really should have been higher.

John Liotta: Over the last twenty years which of the the following three awards would you say better represents the kind of books you like to read most- National Book Award, Pulitzer Prize or Man/Booker?
Klaw: Probably Man Booker, but I haven’t read many NBA winners. The Hugo has a few books I’ve absolutely adored, and then a bunch that I thought were awful.

At least we have Mateo: I saw Dante Bichette Jr. last week. Has he ever been able to tell what pitch is coming? Or is it just always a wild hack and pray?
Klaw: Always been like that. Huge backside collapse and uphill path. No shot at a breaking ball away. I think his lack of success is hurting Bo’s draft stock, but Bo is a better player – he doesn’t collapse like that and he’s a better athlete who might be okay at 2b.

David: Klaw: The Braves are very likely to have the first draft pick in 2017. Is there a consensus No. 1 pick in that class? Please give a lifelong Braves fan a little hope. This is as painful as the 1970s when the team was consistently awful.
Klaw: Klaw about 2 hours ago

Ryan (Carnegie, PA): Is this the year Gregory Polanco breaks out? His approach has been great, and his swing seems more compact. He just seems so much more comfortable at the plate.
Klaw: This year or next. It’s primarily about waiting for his power, and I don’t know when that’s going to come. But I have thought for a while that he had superstar upside and that has not changed.

Ed: Lucas Sims has been really effective since being moved to Double A last year. I know you were high on him early in his career before things fell apart, but is he back to being a guy that can really make an impact as a starter?
Klaw: Every scout I talked to about him over the winter said future reliever, based on the stuff, especially the flat fastball. It’s also not ideal that he’s walked 14 in 19 innings this year.

Sean: Scouting the stat line, but Ahmed Rosario is hitting the cover off the ball. Isn’t it best to bring him up to Double A, while he’s seeing the ball well? I would think it makes for a little bit of a smoother transition to a higher level.
Klaw: He needs to go to AA, not because of his performance, but because he spent all of last year in high-A, and I don’t see what he’s learning by repeating the level.

Rob K: Can you expand on your twitter comment RE: Plawecki > d’Arnaud?
Klaw: Plawecki’s a better receiver and d’Arnaud has shown no ability to stay healthy as a regular catcher. I was surprised that there was any question about this. d’Arnaud was drafted in 2007 and has reached 500 PA in exactly one season, 450 in only two.

JG: Thoughts on the Berrios outing?
Klaw: Seemed like he tired quickly, and his command wasn’t sharp. Not really worried – it’s one start.

Christopher: Hey Keith, I really appreciated all your insight on Twitter the other day regarding pitch counts. You also mentioned that catchers can have arm trouble as well. I caught exclusively between ages 8-16 before persistent elbow problems derailed my career. Do you think that parents and/or leagues should monitor how many innings catchers catch? Perhaps relatedly, it seems that a large percentage of American High School catchers drafted in the first round don’t end up as successful big league catchers. Is there a systemic problem with how we treat/develop/abuse youth catchers in this country?
Klaw: Yes, they should monitor that. Teams could just have two catchers and alternate them, too. I think the problem with US catchers is that we draft them primarily on what they can do now (usually because they can really throw or they have power), when catchers take a long time to develop at the position, and we also have no way to evaluate stuff like receiving or game-calling because amateur coaches won’t give up an ounce of control.

Ty: Mickey Moniak is breaking out the power now. How high can he go?
Klaw: Not a power guy, but I think he goes top 5. If Philly takes a HS player at 1, he’d be my guess.

John: It looks like Manaea and Fulmer are coming up this week. Which one are you more optimistic about?
Klaw: Fulmer. Better stuff, more durable, although both have had injuries.

Jacques Strappe: Can you give any info on Travis Lakins? Didn’t hear much about him before this year but now I see a lot of people talking about him
Klaw: Oh, you mean my sleeper prospect for the Red Sox coming into this season?

JD: Remember how the preseason talk was all “the Orioles could set the MLB record for strikeouts”? Right now, they have the ninth best strikeout rate in the majors. Hell, they’re striking out less than the AL average. What gives?
Klaw: It’s April 28th.

James: Ready for the NFL draft? I am assuming your interest level is somewhere between scouting a little league game and watching grass grow. Thanks for all the work you do on prospects.
Klaw: Pretty much. I forgot it was tonight until I saw it on Twitter this morning.

Mike: High Desert has a + 53 run dif. and is allowing 3.6 runs per game through 20 games. After this, mostly, same pitching core allowed 3.7 runs per in the SAL last year. Do you like the Rangers strategy of not avoiding that environment with guys like Ortiz, Mendez, and Jurado?
Klaw: The alternatives suck. Repeating low-A won’t help most of them (Ortiz perhaps because he pitched so little last year). Jumping them to AA could be a disaster. So you roll them out to High Desert and hope they give you two good months that justify a quick promotion.

Julian: Non-Segura question: Manuel Margot and Nick Williams up in June? After “Super Dos” “deadline” “passes”.
Klaw: Probably right.

Ryan: Are Jefferies and Quantrill the two college arms that the make sense for Boston at #12?
Klaw: Jefferies has a strain in his shoulder of unknown severity and Quantrill has not pitched yet this year coming off TJ, so I’m going with no on this one.

Andy: You’ve stated that you don’t re-read books a lot. Yet from BBTN yesterday, you seem to have a decent sized library. Why buy books you likely won’t ever read again?
Klaw: I’ve kept fewer than 10% of the books I’ve read. I buy a lot of books used, and I get a lot of new books as gifts. And I can always donate or re-sell books in good condition. I bought James Alan McPherson’s Elbow Room new with the express intent of donating it to my local library, as the Delaware library system only has one or two copies. (It’s a Pulitzer winner, a wonderful collection of short stories by an African-American author, definitely something that should be read more in schools.)

James: School out early or daughter sick?
Klaw: Daughter didn’t feel good. Just got over strep last week so I wasn’t going to question it. We’ve never been keen on just telling her to tough it out – if she’s uncomfortable enough to call us, we go get her.

Josh: Talk to us about Cody Bellinger and Mark Chapman. Are they eventual top 100 MLB players?
Klaw: Bellinger yes. Chapman no as he’s still in jail for killing John Lennon.

mike: keith – your thoughts on josh ockimey and kyri washington, two guys off to good starts with low a greenville?
Klaw: Hoping to see them this weekend. Saw Ockimey once in Ft. Myers, body looked a lot better. Washington is too old for the level but the bat probably wasn’t ready for high-A.

Andres A.: Hey Mr. Liberal Firebrand, I was wondering, on a scale of 20-80, what grade would you give “Art Angles” by Grimes? Also, any thoughts on The Struts? Not sure if you’ve heard of the. Thank you for your time, sir.
Klaw: I need to get “liberal firebrand” as my next tattoo. I thought Art Angels was a 70, and the Struts are a bit of a guilty pleasure even though they’re not doing anything novel.

Mike: How far could Alec Hansen fall in the draft ?
Klaw: He’s either a second pick for someone, the way Sean Manaea was for KC a few years ago, or he goes back to school next year and tries to get healthy. Something isn’t right.

Jon: Do you think B.Garrett and I. Anderson will fall to late first/sandwich round due to demands?
Klaw: No. That rarely happens in the new system. Daz was the one major exception last year, but he was not seen by anyone else as a $4 million guy.

Josh: What is the upside to Erick Fedde?
Klaw: Upside would be third starter. But without a decent third pitch he’ll be a reliever.

Brian: Keith, if I recall correctly you did not think Travis Shaw could stick at 3B. But he seems to be handling it quite well. Have you changed your opinion and what has he approved in? Thanks
Klaw: I still don’t think he can play it. I see UZR doesn’t look favorably on his defense so far either, although this sample is tiny.

Alan: I’ve been following Michael Wacha over the years and noticed that his K-rate has steadily declined. Last start he struck out…nobody! What is this due to? Seemed like he had potential to post better K-rates.
Klaw: Feels like he hasn’t had quite the same stuff since the shoulder injury, no?

sam: How do you have time to do all you do & also pitch for the Giants? I see you in the boxscores every few days.
Klaw: That’s my son, all 6’4″ of his conceived-when-I-was-16-years-old self.

Sam: How has Nolan Jones fared so far this season? Is he more solid than spectacular and what position should he play as a pro?
Klaw: More than solid. I was going to see him this afternoon but the game has already been cancelled due to rain.

Bob: Any surprised, positive or negative, for either players or teams that look sustainable? Or is everything still SSS?
Klaw: I just don’t. It’s too early to try to guess what’s real and what’s not unless we have some sound underlying logic, like a mechanical change or a new pitch. The one I might have suggested was Charlie Morton, who really did look different, stats aside, but that’s over.

Mike: Keith with Delino struggling at the plate do the Rangers just shift Desmond to center and keep Mazara up at left when Choo comes back?
Klaw: I would do that and send DeShields to AAA, where he never played anyway due to his rule 5 status (outside of a rehab stint). That would be based more on his limited skill set than just the slow start, though.

Mike: Earlier this month your “stick to baseball” links included a link to a compelling article about how nutrition researchers overplayed the anti-fat case and ignored the role of sugar for decades…while a second link highlighted the ignorance of the anti-vaccine crowd. Both interesting articles, but together they raise an issue: sometimes questioning the scientific mainstream leads to dangerous fringe stances like anti-vaccination…but there are times when mainstream science gets it wrong. How can those of us without science backgrounds find the line between productive skepticism and counter-productive anti-science stances?
Klaw: I’d point to the overwhelming consensus and huge number of studies and meta-studies on topics like vaccine safety, and the total lack of any published, peer-reviewed research anywhere that says otherwise.

BD: Drew Ward is crushing the ball, and it is easy to forget he is still just 21. Prospect now?
Klaw: No. He’s repeating high-A, remains awful at 3b, and also it’s April 28th.

Andrew: Do you think twitter has become more toxic of late? Or are we just more aware of it?
Klaw: Both. Recently I reported a user for saying that a female writer and I who were tweeting at each other deserved to be raped and killed. Twitter’s response was to make the user delete the post. Not to delete his fucking account and IP block him. Just to suspend him till he took the post down. Hey, Twitter, it’s not going to hurt your stock price to kick the shitheads off.

Jordan: Is Lucas Sims a legitimate top of the rotation pitching prospect?
Klaw: No, see above. Also it’s April 28th.

addoeh: Why do people get defensive about their team? Tribalism. They feel they have to defend their team no matter the circumstance. They have their shield and sword and are just waiting to attack all who speak ill of their team. With this thinking, else is wrong.
Klaw: This has become very evidence with Arizona fans this year, which I guess explains why Jan Brewer got two terms out there.

MIke: Have you been able to watch Wil Myers play this season? I know you predicted him as one of your breakout candidates, so how do you think he has faired thus far at a new position and at the plate?
Klaw: It’d be nice if he’d walk once in a while but this is kind of what I thought he’d be if he got healthy and was left alone to just go hit. It’s not picture-perfect but he has great hand-eye coordination and the strength for some power.

Nick: What happened near the end of The Magicians that you felt was a gut punch? Just finished reading (due to your positive review). Thanks.
Klaw: Alice’s last scene in that book.

Nelson: Perhaps I missed your explanation, but I just dont see how you can continue to say that Schilling is a fine human being, despite the bigotted views he consistantly posts?
Klaw: I never said Schilling was “a fine human being.” Rather than getting snotty with me, go read what I actually said.

Logan: Long term, would you bet on Michael Fulmer as a starter or as a reliever?
Klaw: Starter. No question here.

Greg: Hey, Keith. Maikel Franco just signed a $4.35 mil deal with Fantex in exchange for 10% of his total earnings, off and on the field. What’s your opinion of these deals, and do you see more young players signing them? On one hand, it’s a good way for young players to cash in before free agency. On the other, it seems like a large-scale payday loan. And how much does the fact that the public will be able to buy shares in players complicate matters? Could this lead to a lot of shady dealings? All that said, personally, I’m all for it.
Klaw: I believe players should have the right to do this if they believe it’s in their financial best interests. MLB and the union should probably come up with a cap on how much of a player’s earnings he can sell in this fashion, though.

Anonymous: Any 80 tools in this year’s draft?
Klaw: Riley Pint hit 100 mph, as has Zack Burdi. That’s an 80 fastball by definition.

Ryan Thompson: Who will be the Red Sox LF on August 1? Benintendi, Holt or someone else?
Klaw: I’ll take the bet on Benintendi.

J: Serious question: How can you suffer from anxiety and be such a confident person. Totally acceptable if you don’t want to answer and I mean no offense
Klaw: That’s just not what anxiety is. Anxiety is biological and irrational. It is pervasive and insidious, but it is manageable. I don’t feel extraordinary anxiety when writing or watching players. I feel anxiety at times that make no sense.

Dave: Is Josh Hader a starter or reliever? It seems like he only can go 4 innings in every start he makes.
Klaw: Don’t know an MLB starter who has that arm action. Chris Sale is the closest delivery comp, but even that is kind of a default.

Michael: Just wondering – do you know why teams have their pitchers in the minor leagues sit in the stands and chart pitches? When I sit in that section, they always seem very uninterested and I wonder what skill they are gaining knowing how fast their teammate throws.
Klaw: If they’re diligent, they’re watching the hitters too, and looking at how their teammates are adjusting.

Trey: Nick Senzel a reach for the Brewers at 5? 3B is one of the two weakest spots in the Org (1B). Quick mover to the big leagues?
Klaw: Not a big reach, but organizational need is not a good reason to draft a player. I’d go for more upside there, since they’re in rebuilding mode.

Chris: How soon do you see the Yankees calling up Judge with their outfielders struggling so much?
Klaw: He’s still struck out in 1/3 of his at bats – and he’s not walking – which is not a good argument for bringing him up. He has to show he can control both sides of the plate before you recall him because MLB pitchers will exploit that endlessly.

Chris: Any news on Luis Ortiz’s weight issues so far in 2016? His stats look good, but they also don’t show his size
Klaw: He was heavy in March too. He’s just going to be big forever – it’s about not getting TOO big.

Ed: Have you learned anything about Eddie Julio Martinez now that he’s got a couple of at-bats under his belt, or still too early to tell?
Klaw: Too early to tell. He hadn’t played in a real game in two years and it has showed in the early results.

Steve: Have you finished Passan’s The Arm? Thoughts?
Klaw: I finished it the day I saw Pint. I’ve mentioned that I have several conflicts of interest around that book, so bear that in mind, but I enjoyed the book tremendously and thought parents of young pitchers especially should read it. Buy it here from amazon.

Michael: Do you still think Obama should simply appoint Garland to SCOTUS if the Senate ignores its job? You’ve said that Republicans will call Obama a dictator in that case, but that would, in fact, be very undemocratic of him to do. I think the Senate should confirm him–he’s incredibly qualified–but a majority of constitutional lawyers do not think Obama has the power to do it alone.
Klaw: I never said I thought he should do so, but that I thought he could as a recess appointment. Doing so would indeed feed right into the GOP’s narrative. And I agree, the Senate should just do its job.

Ridley Kemp: So….the Hugo Awards finalists were announced yesterday. It reminds me a lot of the 1957 All Star voting mess, a bad nomination process abused by trolls. Any thoughts on the nominees? (P.S. Anyone who gets a membership to Worldcon can vote)
Klaw: Never read any of them. I thought Ancillary Justice (which won in 2014) was a bit sterile, and I’m not wild about Stephenson’s work (overlong, plots don’t resolve well).

Tom: Are periscope chats dead? Really enjoyed that forum. Hopefully you will do them more in the future.
Klaw: Very difficult to do them with travel and with contractors tearing up my bathroom (it’s loud in here).

Every idiot fan: Hey, have you seen ? What’s up with that? And admit that you were wrong! and that you actually hate my team!
Klaw: This is basically every day on twitter even if I don’t tweet for 24 hours.

JG: Are we starting to see the real Kohl Stewart emerge?
Klaw: I’d like to see him do this at the next level since he was in the FSL all of last year too – but missing any bats is nice progress, as it was the one aspect of his game that was lacking (surprisingly so, since he has the stuff to strike guys out).

Kyle: How high are you on Connor Jones? His K/BB is only 2 to 1 and he only strikes out batters just under 20% of the time but I see him really high on mock draft boards
Klaw: I haven’t done a mock draft yet. I don’t think he’s really first-round worthy but may go there due to the paucity of college arms. Virginia has taken him backwards, altering his delivery in a way that has cut his velocity. He can sink it but has no out pitch.

Michael: With all the high fives given out after a sacrifice fly, you would think it’s a better result than it is. Do you think players actually try to just hit a lazy fly ball rather than get a hit? The way they talk on TV, it seems like that may actually be the mentality of a hitter.
Klaw: The worst is in college/high school where a sac fly or a bunt brings every slapdick out of the dugout to high-five. He made an out. Sit your asses down.

Jeff: Have you heard about why R.Lawson’s stopped pitching? Is it an injury or a self preservation?
Klaw: Story was an oblique injury but he’s still been playing the field the last three weeks, so that doesn’t seem to check out. He also changed his delivery somewhere in the offseason, seriously shortening his stride and raising his release point, which is correlated with reduced velocity and greater risk of injury (especially to the shoulder), per ASMI.

Mc: You have tattoos already?
Klaw: I have “OBP IS LIFE” across my shoulder blades.

Mc: Errol Robinson is a ___ round pick? His ceiling is ___ ?
Klaw: Third. Maybe less. He’s been terrible this year. Ceiling of everyday player, low probability of getting there.

Andy: I love how a belief in science and human decency means you’re a liberal firebrand.
Klaw: Because that’s really it, isn’t it? I think everyone is equal. And I think the environment is important because damaging it will kill us. Never mind my views on free trade or taxation or whatnot.

Elton: I liked Forever War more than you did but definitely agree that the characterization was weak. That’s my beef with an awful lot of sci-fi; compelling ideas and plot dragged down by cardboard characters. Is there a book or series you’d consider to have the whole package?
Klaw: Hyperion. Jonathan Strange. Foundation had its moments of characterization. LotR.

Anonymous: What do you see as the ceiling to Matt Chapman?
Klaw: Above-average regular at third. Plus defense, power, low avg/OBP.

Sarah: Are you a Downton Abbey fan?
Klaw: Yes, watched (and wrote up) all six seasons.

Shelby: Zack Collins in any way comparable to college-age Schwarber at this point?
Klaw: Not the same caliber of hitter, but a good hitter, a top 3 pure college bat. Chance to go as high as 6. Definitely goes top 20.

Rob: Keith–surprised to see McCutcheon hitting second for the Pirates? Clint “Bowl of Jell-O” Hurdle has obviously been listening to the Bucs’ analytics department.
Klaw: He’s shown a real willingness to listen to new ideas, as opposed to, say, Dusty Baker. And then he bats Polanco sixth.

Steve: What’s should the Rangers do with Profar at this point?
Klaw: I don’t have a good answer. He should be in the majors, but where? Odor has not played well, but demoting him would be overreacting, and Profar hasn’t played 2b anyway. Andrus is hitting for the moment. Mazara isn’t going anywhere. So I guess just wait and let Profar keep doing his thing.

Travis: Wait, Moniak is a top-5 guy now? You said that’d be a stretch a few weeks ago. Has something changed with him, or have other top picks fallen?
Klaw: Didn’t I just rank him 6th in the draft class? I don’t think that’s a stretch.

JR: Speaking of your “stick to baseball” posts, the BYU story you linked too earlier this month keeps getting worse as more victims are coming forward. In some instances, preadators knew they could use threats of the “honor code” to coerce their victims into more actions or buy their silence. Horrible.
Klaw: I have very little respect or use for that school. Colleges ignoring rape or sexual assault allegations are nothing new (Tennessee, Baylor). But BYU has taken it to an entirely new level of victim-blaming. The feds should cut off all funding to the school as a result of these revelations.

Bob: Back to Aledmys Diaz. If I remember right, you weren’t high on him when he was being showcased a couple of years ago. But I think you hedged a bit because it’s hard to project Cuban players. He had decent minor league stats. Obviously he’s not going to keep up this streak but is there anything in his development that should give Cardinal fans hope that he could be a regular?
Klaw: He had decent minor league stats, but not great ones. He hit .278/.339/.445 last year in AAA at age 24, so what are the odds that he’ll hit substantially better than that this year without some substantial mechanical or physical change? I don’t know of such a change, so I’m skeptical that he’ll be much better than that – but that line and average defense at short is an everyday player.

Eric Johnson: Do Colabello’s innocent pleas fall on more sympathetic ears because he can better articulate his arguments as opposed to Latin guys with English as a second language? This bugs me.
Klaw: Well I think we’re all ignoring his comments and assuming he’s guilty because, you know, he failed the test.

Michael: Re: Brewer, you’ll never vote for a Republican if you favor science and equal rights over the economy. But you generally must hate economic policies put forward by Democrats if you prefer laissez-faire economics and a flatter tax.
Klaw: At an extremely general level, yes, this is true. And it makes me nuts when Democrats talk about “tax cuts for the wealthy” (we tax income, not wealth) or claim the gender pay gap is 25-30% (it’s probably around 5%).

Don: Not really a question, but wow, does Francisco Lindor hit the ball hard for a little guy. And consistently too. Any other young players that look like they’re having as much fun on the field as he does?
Klaw: You can make hard contact if you have strong hands and/or wrists. Andrew McCutchen is not huge, but he has huge power for that reason. That Harper kid seems to have fun out there.

Tmelts: Seth Beer a future 1st round pick?
Klaw: Probably. Might be better off for his decision because he’ll be a true 21-year-old junior rather than a nearly 20-year-old HS senior.

Chuck: How shocked would yoou be if the Phillies draft Jason Groome … extremely or mildly ?
Klaw: Only mildly because the class is so unsettled, but all indications I’ve heard so far have them disinclined to take a prep arm at 1.

Ryan, PA: Foody question. Do you have a favorite way to cook or eat lamb? I took some notes from Alton Brown and started using it in burgers and now I’m never going back to straight beef burgers if I can help it.
Klaw: It’s the one animal protein I just don’t care for. I never cook it at home.

Greg: When you say first round pick, does that = top 30, or top 23?
Klaw: Top 23 this year.

Mike: Hey science guy, how do you rationalize the transgender people? Last time, I checked you’re either born with a Y chromosome or you’re not and they’re no scientific argument against that
Klaw: Hey ignorance guy, it’s called gender dysphoria and is found in the DSM-5.

Sarah: Trevor Story: what are your quick thoughts- obviously not sustainable but will he stick as Colorado’s long-term SS and be an above average bat at that position or will the league figure out the holes in his swing?
Klaw: Eventually I think he’s their everyday SS, but selling out for power isn’t the long-term formula here.

Ryan: Not trying to fire anyone up but I have a question about the transgender bathroom situation. Most stuff I read says that people aren’t concerned with sharing a bathroom with transgender people as much as they are concerned with some straight guy using this as an excuse to creep in a woman’s rest room. Do you see this as a possible issue or just fear mongering?
Klaw: I’d be more concerned about “some straight guy” who’s actually a pedophile going after my (hypothetical) son in the men’s room, since the situation you described above has never actually happened.

Micha: Can you give me a quick scouting report on AJ Puk’s last two outings?
Klaw: No since I wasn’t there.

Ed: Lamb ragout with polenta is delicious
Klaw: That’s because polenta is delicious.

MikeD: What percentage of time do you spend on the road away from home? Have you ever brought your daughter with you during the summer, or would she find it all dreadfully boring?
Klaw: She came on both trips to spring training this year, and sometimes she’ll tag along on a summer trip, but she’s completely uninterested in baseball so bringing her to games is not quite ideal. I usually bribe her with pizza.

Fonz: Re level of competition in evaluating players, how much weight is placed on something like JJ Schwarz not being able to hit SEC pitching this year and last? Similarly, do teams break out stats vs. Friday starters compared to mid-week starters, etc.?
Klaw: A lot because SEC pitching is the best competition these kids are going to face before the draft. And yes on Friday starters vs midweek, and LHP for left-handed hitters. Those last two variables were big negatives on Pedro Alvarez in his draft year and why I ranked him below Posey, Smoak, and Hosmer in that class.

David-ji: Robert Stephenson has looked solid in his first two MLB starts…did that upgrade his future in your eyes?
Klaw: No, I think I had him ranked about right given what he’s shown so far.

CJ: Amir Garrett Upside?
Klaw: True upside, #2 starter. Long way to go to get there because he has so little pitching experience. Lot of scouts tell me they think he’s a reliever, and I can see why, but I wouldn’t give up on him starting yet.

Joe: Do any of the players you’re scouting moms get frisky with you?
Klaw: I ain’t going that good. They’d probably think I was closer to their sons’ ages anyway.

Tim: A quick comment and defense of Cards fans – there were no racial or obscene yells against Heyward when visiting Busch. It was an allegation with no basis.
Klaw: I can’t believe something that was spread quickly on social media turned out to be wrong. How will I ever believe something I read on my Internet again.

James: What is your projection on Aaron Blair? Is he a safe mid rotation starter or maybe something more
Klaw: Bit better than that.

John: If the Phillies are staying away from a high school arm at 1.1, does that mean they want a faster rebuild and prefer a college player or are they just avoiding the risk?
Klaw: I think it’s about the risk of HS arms in the first round. Their track record as a whole is not that good – you have to believe you’ve identified one of the kids who’s an exception.

MyName: Very early, but you’re thoughts on J.J. Schwarz? Seems like a guy Braves should be keeping their eye on for 2017?
Klaw: If they’re going to draft top 3 again, then no, I don’t think so. First-rounder, but behind a bunch of other kids right now. Granted, a ton can change in the next 13 months.

Ryan: Who is the most MLB ready in this year’s draft class?
Klaw: Sounds like Senzel.

Henry: For teams with a long time star at a certain position, how soon is too soon to start planning for backups/succession? I’m thinking specifically of the Cardinals, who have a ham sandwich backing up Yadier Molina.
Klaw: I think teams should always plan for that because you never know when a player will be done. Dale Murphy was a superstar at 31, a below-average regular at 32, and basically done after that. The worst thing that happens is that you’ve planned for a replacement and don’t need him, so you have a tradeable asset or a player you can move to another spot.

Cubs Fans 3 years ago: Hey, you remember a couple years ago when Junior Lake had a hot couple of weeks, yet you kept insisting he wasn’t a good player? When are we going to get a retraction article on that? Also on a related note, Dan Vogelbach is hitting well in AAA.
Klaw: Indeed he is – I think Vogey gets a callup at some point this year. He’d be an interesting option off the bench if they can carry him.

Mike: Are people just willfully ignorant with the “man will put on a dress” comments? Transgender does not equal cross dresser.
Klaw: It’s also a relatively small part of these laws in NC, MS, and KS, which generally allow private businesses to discriminate against gay people. That’s the real problem.

Buckner: Hypothetical question. If Seager stays @ SS for the next ten years, would you take him or Bogerts?
Klaw: Probably Seager. Don’t think he will though.

Jeff: From a rebuilding standpoint, do teams tend to prefer a low risk/high floor player or a high risk high ceiling player?
Klaw: Usually the latter because you have to try to find stars wherever you can. The Paul Goldschmidts of the world – low draft picks without exceptional tools – are so rare that you can’t say you’re going to find and build around them.

Klaw: Anyway, that’s all for this week – thanks for hanging with me around my schedule. I’ll be back next week on Thursday or Friday for another chat.