Klawchat 2/17/16.

The index to all 30 MLB farm reports and top tens is now up; all reports are Insider except for Baltimore’s, which is free for all readers. Insiders can also read my top 100 prospects ranking and my my ranking of all 30 farm systems.

Klaw: This generation rules the nation … with Klawchat.

Danny B: Will Jacob Turner (one of your breakout picks from last year) get another opportunity to start or is he viewed as a reliever due to his fragility?
Klaw: Last I’d heard he was healthy but I can’t imagine he gets a starter’s workload, at least to start the year, given that he missed all of last season.

Jose: Hi Keith. I’d like to know your thoughts on Yulieski Gurriele and his brother. Also, did you hear something about the showcase Cuban player Alexei Bell had in Mexico? According to El Nuevo Herald the scouts were impressed with his demonstration.
Klaw: I’ve only seen Yuliesky, and he was awful. I’ve heard he was much, much better this past winter – body was better, effort was better, quality of contact was there. He was a star back in 2006 but I think you’re hoping to get maybe two productive years from him. I don’t even try to keep track of all the Cuban players’ showcases now; there are too many players and too few of them are clearly worth following at the moment. I’ll catch them when they sign.

steven: Is it fair to say that Dom Smith profiles as a somewhat similar hitter to Michael Conforto? Both are lefty, have unusually refined approaches, use the whole field and are more likely to get their value from doubles and high obp than classic power albeit Smith seems to have the edge in avg and Conforto will have more power.
Klaw: Smith has a lot more power than he’s shown, as I’ve written a few times. Both have a great approach but Smith is stronger than Conforto was at the same age.

Daniel: Travis Lakins pitched 2IP in Lowell and was ranked no.10 in the Red Sox system (soxprospects has him at 23). What led you to place him so high?
Klaw: It has absolutely nothing to do with how much a player played in pro ball last year. He pitched the whole spring (96 innings) for Ohio State and was scouted the whole spring too. The rankings are based on scouting reports, mine and those of scouts I talk to, as much as statistics.

Justin S.: In your top 10 for each Farm you included impact players for 2016. I was curious why you left off players like Seager (too obvious), Giolito , PJ Crawford, Jose Peralta and Julio Urias ? Do you believe they aren’t going to get called up this year?
Klaw: Seager’s already up and has a job. I don’t think those others are getting called up any time soon.

Fitzy: In your Blue Jays report, you mentioned that Rowdy Tellez couldn’t turn on an average fastball, but I believe that he homered off James Paxton in the AFL on an up and in fastball. Was Paxton’s velocity down? Just curious, thanks for all your great work.
Klaw: Two problems with this question. One, if I say a player “can’t hit lefties,” I don’t mean he’s going to go 0 for 150 against them. So Tellez might occasionally cheat on a fastball and hit it, but over a long span of time good fastballs will eat him up. Two, Paxton was only throwing fastballs and changeups, no breaking balls, so Tellez could easily cheat whereas a lefty who could spin something away from him wouldn’t permit that.

Jay B: Is the Cubs’ 2018 CF currently in their system?
Klaw: Almora is the safest bet for that.

Cliff: Why are you such a pompous douschebag?
Klaw: Because someone has to put illiterates like you in their place.

Amit: Quick analysis on the A’s/Brewers trade from last week?
Klaw: You saw my notes on the prospects in the Brewers farm report, so needless to say I wouldn’t have given Nottingham up for a below-average regular like Davis.

Woodman: Giants avoided arbitration with Belt, but local radio is saying he’s not the long-term 1B solution and that Giants should move Posey to 1B full-time in a few years. Posey is one of the best catchers in baseball. Is it smart to throw away a great catcher to make him a good 1B?
Klaw: If the concern is injury, yes. You also see some teams move catchers (Harper, Myers) out from behind the plate to get their bats in the lineup 160 games a year rather than 135, which is understandable but of course can take quite a toll in lost value. And if the player doesn’t hit, as Myers hasn’t other than his rookie year, then you might have a below-average regular where behind the plate you might have had an average one.

Tom R.: Is all of Newman’s value tied to his glove or do you really think he will be a good enough hitter to be a borderline star?
Klaw: I think he can hit and I know he can really run. The Pirates are going contrarian – in an era where many teams have taken strikeouts from hitters as the cost of doing business, they’re following the Royals’ model and focusing on guys who put the ball in play. I don’t know if it’s right but I love the idea.

Chris: Non-baseball Q: Preferred way to cook a duck? I roasted my first duck recently, and used a “steam the whole bird, then cut up and roast the pieces” method. It came out great, but was thinking of maybe doing legs/thighs and breasts using different methods next time (e.g. roast breast meat, confit legs).
Klaw: I cooked one whole once and won’t do it again. Better to braise or confit the legs, sear the breasts (or sous-vide and sear?), and save the bones to make the best stock you’ll ever make at home.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: What does Fedde need to do to crack your Hundee?
Klaw: A third pitch would be a good start. I’m not sure what he has now is more than fourth starter worthy.

Drew: If something horrible happened to Joe Mauer, is Max Kepler ready on opening day ?
Klaw: Yes. But you make it sound like you’re planning something.

Ruhlman: What kind(s) of salt do you use when cooking? Do you find a noticeable difference between Morton’s and $10/2oz. pink Himalayan sea salt?
Klaw: Nope. It’s all sodium chloride. The shape is what matters.

Andrew: I’ve seen some grades on Buxton at 80 run/80 glove, etc…which prospect(s) can you think of with multiple 80 grades – that would seem pretty rare (maybe Bo Jackson?)
Klaw: Gallo has 80 power and an 80 arm. See that a lot with guys who were also good pitchers in HS – Buxton was mid-90s when I saw him.

Ryan: Hey Keith, I know you touched on it briefly in your top 10 for the Cardinals but I was wondering if you could expand a bit more on why you had Plummer below Woodford despite Plummer ranking a lot higher in your 2015 draft rankings. Thanks
Klaw: I explained at the top of the chat last week that I don’t rely on my own previous rankings to create the next set – that becomes stubbornness rather than just consistency. Plummer looked more raw over the summer than expected, while Woodford was at least as advanced as we thought going into the draft, maybe a little more so.

Andrew: “Tanking” has been a big topic recently – I would contend that there is a difference between “designing a team for failure” and simply not wasting money on players who won’t ultimately make a team significantly better and exchanging assets for long-term value. Is this an argument of semantics? I just don’t see it as “designing teams to fail.”
Klaw: I agree with you. Tanking in baseball doesn’t really work. It’s just not wasting money. NBA teams seem to actually tank.

Ed: I believe the Cubs are starting Happ in high A to help develop his skills at 2nd. My question is, don’t you get essentially the same experience at a defensive position no matter what level you play, and therefore wouldn’t it make sense to continue to develop his bat at the appropriate level?
Klaw: You’d expect balls in play to be harder, or more consistently hard, the higher up in the minors you go.

Pat: Keith – Have a question about Bundy’s exclusion from your Orioles org rankings. Why include Hart – who you admit has to repeat A ball and has no power or speed — and not Bundy. Think even a relief career is unlikely for Dylan at this point?
Klaw: Bundy has a calcification in his shoulder and it’s unclear how much he’ll be able to pitch.

Jack: Newman’s performance in the PAC-12 doesn’t concern you at all? The guy had a low-.300s OBP in conference play as a junior…
Klaw: yeah, but what did he do on alternate Tuesdays?

Jerry: Keith, You were previously very high on Brandon Nimmo, it not longer seems to be the case. What has changed? Where did the athleticism go? Odds he can still be a big league regular? MLB starting CF?
Klaw: He just stopped getting better at an age and level when he should have gotten better. He never developed power, and his defense in CF has slipped a little bit each year.

Larry: Jorge Mateo will likely be a better player as a whole than Billy Hamilton, true?
Klaw: I’ll bet on that, yes.

Jesse: Shaun King and the NY Daily News have embarrassed themselves. Work like that gives journalism a bad name. He obviously had a goal to diminish Peyton Manning because of his belief Cam Newton was criticized for his behavior after the SB because of race. That’s not a defense for Peyton Manning because I believe it’s two separate issues. Just terrible journalism there. How do you not have an attorney assist with an article like that?
Klaw: I agree he should have had an attorney assist with the article, but the only part that matters is the court filings, not what King did or didn’t say about them. (Also, of course Newton was criticized for his behavior because of race.)

Eric: Of the no longer eligible prospects, who are some of your breakout sleepers for 2016?
Klaw: I’ll write that article at some point in March.

Danny: I know this is a hypothetical, but should the Jays have kept Syndergaard instead of Sanchez? (Or do you attribute significant part of current difference in their outlook to the team’s approaches, which would have been different…)
Klaw: If Sanchez had gone to the Mets instead, perhaps his delivery wouldn’t have changed for the worse, and he’d be in the Mets’ rotation. It’s far from certain – I mean, it’s clear that the Mets did very well in getting Thor – but it’s a possible scenario given what did happen with Sanchez afterwards.

Craig: Can Jake Nottingham be a passable MLB catcher or is his long-term future at 1B? Does he hit well-enough to justify a transition to 1B?
Klaw: I think there’s a reasonable enough chance he can catch that I’d leave him there for now.

Tom: Is most scouting of HS players done at showcase events? Seems like it would be tougher to gauge value at actual HS games.
Klaw: Showcase events bring their own problems – pitchers coming in for one inning trying to air it out, players getting maybe two at bats and trying to hit something hard or out, game outcomes not mattering. So scouts will fan the country all spring seeing those same players in real games for their high school teams as much as they can.

Nick: If the Mets have 5 reasonable, healthy starters when Wheeler comes back (big if), what do you think about easing him back from TJ as an 8th inning guy for this season only?
Klaw: Hate it. Guy coming off TJ shouldn’t be used as a short reliever, where it’s get up for an inning, air it out, and maybe come back again the next day. Long reliever, sure, throw 2-3 innings here and then take 3 days off.

Tom: Are there examples of successful MLB pitchers that have missed as much time as Taillon and Bundy due to injuries in the minors?
Klaw: Steven Matz missed two years and contributed in the majors last year.

Drew: Ben Carson is a really smart guy. That just blows my mind.
Klaw: He also denies evolution, so, ease up there.

Brian: Keith – don’t think I see you review many classic crime/detective novels, but have you read any from that genre you would recommend?
Klaw: I don’t review many of them but I’ve read a ton – all of Chandler and Hammett, a dozen or more of Stout’s Nero Wolfe novels, Jim Thompson’s books, James Cain, and so on.

Pat: People make a big deal out of the PECOTA projections. It’s an admirable attempt, but really is it possible to accurately project in mid-February an win/loss record? Seems like there are way too many variables
Klaw: I think you’re right, and I think it’s stupid to go to execs or coaches or players and shove a projection in their face and say “See? This computer says you suck! Care to comment?” but there is no question in my mind that well-built computer projections will beat any individual person’s guesses on standings (yes, including mine).

Pat: Going off that high school scouting question, it seems likely that a lot of players would slip through the cracks. Particularly if the players aren’t attending showcases.
Klaw: This is why teams employ area scouts, and should continue to do so, perhaps even adding more, even in the face of what seems like an industry trend toward employing fewer.

Jim: When scouting a HS game with only one known prospect, do scouts spend the time he is not pitching/batting looking for diamonds in the rough or do they just mess around on their phone?
Klaw: Usually I spend that time tweeting to you and the other scouts spend the time reading my tweets.

Justin: When a player like Joc Pederson demonstrates good plate discipline and pitch recognition in terms of walk rate, but also has a high strikeout rate, what are some things that it might be attributable to?
Klaw: Don’t think he has good pitch recognition, just good ball/strike recognition. Could be attributable to a poor two-strike approach, or to the bat head getting out of the zone too quickly, or lack of bat speed to catch up to good fastballs in the zone.

michael: would you say that your top 100 prospects list is indicative of the trade value that they would have in the market? For example, would you always trade your #51 prospect if you had the opportunity to get #50?
Klaw: The difference between #51 and #50 is negligible.

BD: Ole Miss SS Errol Robinson is a ___ round draft pick?
Klaw: Second. Maybe third, probably second.

Joe: On talent alone, would Bundy still be in your top 100? I know this is basically a ridiculous question, but could you help settle a pretty big argument I’ve had with some people?
Klaw: What talent remains? If you’re asking where he’d rank had he never gotten hurt, the answer is he’d be in Baltimore’s rotation and not on my rankings.

Jon: Does the string of Baltimore pitching non success stories scare you away from Kevin Gausman? How would you compare the outlook between him and a not as heralded prospect, up and comer like DeSclafani or Heston?
Klaw: The way they’ve messed with his position on the rubber would scare me, yes. But if he goes somewhere else, like Jake Arrieta, he could become the star he was supposed to be out of LSU.

Allan: BA put a 50 on Gallo’s hit tool. If he gets there, a league average hitting Gallo is a demi-god, right?
Klaw: Yeah, that player probably ends up in the Hall of Fame. I would not put a 50 on his hit tool myself, but if that’s what he is, he’s probably going to hit 500 homers.

Tom: Anytime you offer an opinion about the DBacks, their fans always seem to point out you don’t know what you’re talking about. Of course, their only counter ever is “Goldschmidt.” So by Rickey Henderson type math, doesn’t that mean you’re right 99% of the rest of the time?
Klaw: Sure, but even so, getting some players wrong (and I’ve had my share) doesn’t mean I’m wrong on all players. It’s a cowardly response to change the subject like that.

Dan: I’ve been watching a lot more TV with my kids while on leave helping my wife (brain tumor removed last month). I’m surprised at how long some of those shows have been on the air for (eg Peppa Pig and Bubble Guppies). I know you’re not a big TV guy but are there any shows you particularly liked watching with your daughter? I have the ones I like, the ones I tolerate (mentioned above), and ones that are strictly to be watched while I’m in the other room. For the record, I don’t stick them in front of the TV all day but do allow some relaxation times.
Klaw: I hope your wife’s doing better now. We tried to keep my daughter on PBS shows (except Caillou) as long as we could. Once she started on Nick Jr. we noticed a big dropoff in quality. We got some mileage out of Dinosaur Train and Sid the Science Kid before the insipid Bubble Guppies showed up.

Pat: Gausman doesn’t have to go somewhere else to have success if the O’s reevaluate their one-size-fits-all approach to developing arms. You’d think by now they would have done so.
Klaw: It’s their way or the highway. After this many years and this many arms going wrong, they still haven’t made the adjustment.

Cataniac: Is it fair to say that short of a Josh Lueke or Ben Christensen situation with a demonstrably bad human, you root for every prospect to excel?
Klaw: Yep. Even ones I’ve said will not be good. These are real people with dreams and goals, most of whom work hard to achieve something unattainable to the rest of us. I could never root against any of these kids.

Jason: Wait, I just read the NY Daily News article by Shaun King this morning. Now, after a previous question, I went back and read the “backlash” which just seems to be whole heaps of the logical fallacy of attacking the person of Shaun King. Did I miss something? Like you said, the court records are there. Are people having trouble believing the court records? I also don’t understand how people can ignore the job track of Peyton’s victim. Why do people want to defend abusers?
Klaw: The genetic fallacy had a huge week on social media. And people want to defend abusers when admitting that, say, Peyton Manning sexually assaulted a woman and repeatedly worked to ruin her life would conflict with their childlike adulation of a man who was good at throwing a football.

Urban: Recognizing you can’t be everywhere all the time, how do you balance in-person scouting vs. video scouting, especially when it comes to players in the amateur draft?
Klaw: This is why I try to talk to lots of scouts. Even players I see, I often see just once in the spring, not the 3-4 times I’d like for a first-rounder.

BD: You mentioned Blake Perkins, but not Andrew Stevenson. Any thoughts on him?
Klaw: Thought he might be a fourth outfielder. Maybe.

Josh: Is it now officially draft season for you?
Klaw: More or less. Starting this weekend.

Addoeh: My 5 year loved Dino Dan. He learned a lot about dinosaurs and became interested in that show.
Klaw: Dino Dan is just Willard for the single-digit set.

Todd: Better player when all is said and done: Jimmy Rollins or J.P Crawford?
Klaw: I think Crawford is a better prospect right now than Rollins was at the same age. Rollins got almost everything out of his abilities; if Crawford does the same, he’ll end up the better player.

Scott: I see that Josh Hamilton’s knee is bothering him again, should the Rangers, at this point, make him a bench player and let Gallo play or would Gallo benefit from more AAA time?
Klaw: Gallo would benefit from more AAA time, and so would Mazara, but if Hamilton misses half the year – and you know you’re thinking that’s what’s going to happen – then I’d rather push one of those kids a little than go spend money on some fill-in.

Josh: Why do you think zach eflin is a bullpen pitcher? He is still young for his level.
Klaw: That’s not any sort of counterargument. A player can be young for his level and still lack the essential tools or skills to reach some particular ceiling. I like Eflin, but there’s no consistent breaking ball there.

Ed: I continue to be befuddled by the Dbacks’ all in approach for this year, especially since the same strategy failed miserably for the Pads last year. I get that LaRussa / Stewart are stuck in the past but you’d think that a responsible owner would be more diligent in who they pick to run their team. Especially with the size of the contracts they’ve handed out and the complete forsaking of the future of the club through internal development.
Klaw: I truly don’t understand how Kendrick can look at how the team’s been run the last sixteen or seventeen months and think “This is fine, I’m okay with the events that are unfolding currently.” Even if the team is better right now, they’re so much worse off in the long run for all of these trades.

Jason: It’s only natural that you would be closer with certain front offices or scouts, or that you would just have more access to inside information for certain teams than others. How do you work to avoid inadvertent bias in prospect rankings?
Klaw: I talk to people in every single organization every winter, and to scouts with plenty of organizations, building in redundancy wherever possible. I don’t think there’s any such bias in my rankings.

Hank: Did Nomar Mazara come out of nowhere? Not to say he wasn’t a known commodity, but it sure seems like he’s the biggest riser in the prospect community.
Klaw: I’ve had him stuffed for a while now. Don’t think he rose that fast.

Chris: New DIIV album: the same “not bad but the songs all start sounding the same as with their last album” or “pretty decent and one I’d recommend?”
Klaw: All DIIV songs sound the same to me. It’s a nice sound, but I can’t really tell them apart. New album could easily be the last one with the songs reordered and I might not notice the difference.

Urban: Are there certain types of pitches that might be more effective based on height? For example, would it make more sense to try and teach a slider to someone below 6 ft. as opposed to a curve, or no difference?
Klaw: In theory, yes, but then Sonny Gray and Marcus Stroman both have these outstanding curveballs and how could you take that away from a kid who has the laxity in his wrist to throw one? One thing I do believe, though, is that a shorter pitcher who doesn’t naturally get plane or sink on his four-seamer should learn a two-seamer or true sinker. Otherwise he’ll be homer-prone.

Molly: Other than Seager, will any of the Dodgers prospects have an impact on this season?
Klaw: I don’t see where, barring injury. If Kendrick gets hurt, Micah Johnson could play second. If Pederson gets hurt (or doesn’t hit again), Trayce Thompson could play CF. No idea how far away Yusnier Diaz is. I really like Jharel Cotton as a reliever – he could be one of those off-radar relievers who’s pitching the 8th inning in October.

Mike: Thoughts on Bowie as a rapist? Seems he’s getting a Manning like pass because of his great career, but he slept with at least one 15 year old and was accused by others of rape.
Klaw: Also gets a bit of a pass because he’s dead, and because the 15-year-old has said it was consensual and has never regretted it. (Still illegal – I’m not defending him.) We should just stop pretending our sporting and artistic heroes are somehow beyond doing awful things.

John: I was surprised Adam Brett Walker didn’t get mentioned in the other Twins prospects. Supposedly his raw power matches or exceeds Sano’s. Is his hit tool so poor he has no real chance of making it to the majors?
Klaw: That’s false on his raw power. He can’t hit and is awful anywhere but 1b.

FG: As a scout you always seem to know what to look for in a player and often write in your articles changes you think a player should make to have more success. That makes me curious as to why you dont think youd be a good coach (your words)? WHere is the disconnect in the two. Thanks!
Klaw: I think it’d be very hard to establish credibility with players when I didn’t play and never coached before. I’m also not at all sold that I have complete enough knowledge to help players enough to do that job.

Skippy: Has Michael Ohlman reestablished himself as a legit piece or did he have a fluke season? I also read he’s improved defensively?
Klaw: Just a guy repeating a level and getting marginally better. I heard nothing about him improving defensively.

Terry: Is Sam Travis’ ceiling Eric Hosmer without the glove?
Klaw: This comp doesn’t work for me.

Andrew: I think you’ve mentioned a few times that the Astros encouraged Appel to throw a 4-seamer instead of a 2-seamer (or vice versa?), which you suggested could have been a mistake…why would they have done this? What is the perceived advantage? Thanks.
Klaw: I know Houston has emphasized throwing four-seamers up for swings and misses. In general, that’s true, and it’s an underutilized pitch because of the fear of missing and giving up hard contact. But some pitchers are better able to pitch like that than others. Appel doesn’t have great deception in his delivery and his four-seamer is too true for him to get away with this.

James: I don’t want to be the guy who defends sexual assault either, but can we also agree that 18 is a rather arbitrary age to choose as the legal “age of consent”? If the woman said it was 100% consensual and she doesn’t regret it, etc. does Bowie need some sort of scarlet letter attached to him for all of history?
Klaw: Fifteen is still a child in the view of most western societies. I know you’re not defending sexual assault, but age of consent laws are there to protect children.

Mike: Any strategy for identifying someone who seems like they don’t fit the mold e.g. Sale’s wild delivery, but still end up successful?
Klaw: Nope, not really. I think you’re guessing much of the time, and figuring the payoff of a successful bet is so big – as it was in Sale’s case – that it mitigates the risk. The White Sox have also handled him exceptionally carefully; I think 3x he’s had to be shut down very briefly for elbow soreness, but he’s never suffered a serious injury to any part of his arm, and the White Sox deserve credit for that too.

Bill: Give us a few guys who could be this years Matt Duffy? Basically a non prospect to a serviceable player his rookie year
Klaw: If I knew who the next Matt Duffy was … I guess I wouldn’t be able to get rich off it, He’s a great story but he took me by surprise as much as everyone else (including, I think, the Giants).

Bill: Does Mancini have enough bat speed to be a regular 1B? Are we looking at Matt Adams 2.0
Klaw: Don’t believe so.

J: Do you see Josh Bell or Clint Frazier ever being All-Stars? Which will have the better career?
Klaw: Bell could by hitting .320 some year even if the power never comes. Frazier still has more work to do to make an All-Star outcome realistic.

Leonard: Conforto has supposedly been working some in RF this offseason – any chance he can be ok there even just in spot starts?
Klaw: I think his range would be fine, but does he have the arm you want in RF?

Hank: If he were eligible, where would Vince Velasquez have ranked on your Phillies top 10? Do you view him as a starter or reliever?
Klaw: Starter. Biggest problem has been remaining healthy. He’s had a hard time getting through a full year without an injury. And I don’t like trying to re-rank guys who’ve lost eligibility because their major-league performance gives us far more information than we have on other prospects.

Bruce Bochy: Best chance to be a 1 or 2? Bickford, Beede, Suarez, or other?
Klaw: None of the above for me.

Brian: Keith, new CBA coming up. If you could pick three things for the MLB to change about amateur talent acquisition (foreign or domestic) what would they be?
Klaw: Aside from just killing the draft entirely? End free-agent compensation – signing a player should not cost you a draft pick. I’d blow up the whole international system, which has been a complete failure. And I’d enforce the rules on pre-July 2nd deals. Maitan getting “locked up” by Atlanta a year before he’s eligible is a joke, and ends up hurting the player. Look at Chris Torres, who claimed he was jilted by the Yankees when they had a seven-figure deal in place; if a team backs out of a pre-July 2nd agreement the player has no legal recourse. This is MLB’s problem to fix. Oh, also, a predraft medical combine is a must. No more Brady Aikens. It happened last june too – those players’ medicals just haven’t become public.

Eric Reining: Do you believe Josh Morgan has the talent and/or makeup to make this catching experiment work out in the long run?
Klaw: I honestly am not qualified to answer that question. But I love that they’re trying it.

Brett: Will Ke’Bryan ever develop enough power to be an impact/star 3B? He is a big guy and have heard he can put on a power display during BP
Klaw: I think he can be an impact guy just with the glove and hit tool, but there could be 15 HR there too. That’s all for this week. Thank you as always for reading, especially with all the content I put up in the last seven days, and for all of your questions.