My piece on the most prospect-laden rosters in the minors is now up for Insiders.

Keith Law: Taking the fun out of everything … it’s Klawchat.

Brian (Buffalo): Have you been enjoying the Tupac/Biggie show on USA?
Keith Law: Very much so, although I fell behind with some recent travel. Hoping to catch up over the weekend/early next week.

Alex: really enjoyed Hillside Spot and Citizens Public House from your spring training guide. Thanks!
Keith Law: Two of my standbys.

David (NY): What do you think of your Athletic Subscription?
Keith Law: I don’t understand the question here. I have a subscription and have read a few pieces.

JR: I know the season is long and guys need days off, but should I be at all worried that Reyes is starting at SS in place of Rosario for the second time in six games? Is Mickey the new Terry?
Keith Law: Totally bizarre. This stuff bothers me way more than Nick Williams playing too shallow last night, which is what gets all the press (because it’s visible … not playing Rosario is an invisible error).

Peter: I know you’ve mentioned that Mackenzie Gore might be the best pitching prospect in baseball right now. Is he significantly better than guys like Whitley or Buehler? Or are we talking about razor thin margins?
Keith Law: He’s a lot better. Everything has ticked up for him, and his slider has gone from a barely used pitch to a potential swing and miss option.

Mark: Are you concerned at all about Kyle Tucker’s high IFFB rates?
Keith Law: No. That’s an awfully minute thing to worry about – especially since coding of balls in play in the minors still isn’t that reliable.

Peter: Who do you think is a more productive player offensively at their peak, Schoop or Kingery?
Keith Law: I love both guys but I’d nod to Kingery here.

Jr: Am I the only one that thinks Icarus was made by the CIA? So many coincidences for that thing to come together the way it did.
Keith Law: I really don’t engage in that kind of conspiracy-thinking.

Jason: Is the brewers rotation as bad as it has shown so far? Should they move Josh Hader to the rotation?
Keith Law: Hader’s not the answer. I’ve always thought he had a reliever profile due to the delivery & arm slot. They probably needed to address the rotation with external options but didn’t, even when the price fell on a guy like Lynn.

Foyle: Have you ever internally grappled with the moral legitimacy of eating meat? I don’t ask that to be glib or with an agenda, but instead have genuine curiosity for the thoughts of someone as contemplative as you.
Keith Law: No. We evolved to what we are now because we ate meat. I think the better argument than a vague moral one is an environmental one: The way we raise meat is terrible for the planet, and makes meat cheap enough that people consume more than they need nutritionally and waste more of it than is conscionable.
Keith Law: is that a word?

Adam: Is there anything to be excited about with Preston Tucker? Is he something now that hes healthy?
Keith Law: No.

Jr: I’ve heard people say Quantrill’s stock is down with his velocity. Do you agree with that assessment?
Keith Law: You’ve heard me say that.

Dustin: Have you heard anything recently about Indians’ Shane Beiber? Doesn’t look like he pitched at all this spring and can’t find any news online, seems a bit surprising.
Keith Law: He’s starting tonight for Akron, according to the Rubber Ducks’ official site.

WarBiscuit: With Taylor Ward moving to 3B, the Angels have picked two catchers in the first round to move off that position. Maybe they thought Ward would stick at C, but never understood the Thaiss pick if they would move him to 1B immediately, considering his power and defense questions.
Keith Law: They did think Ward would stick at catcher, although my understanding at the time was that the limited data available said he probably wouldn’t, and my own look at him said he probably wouldn’t either (had the arm, not the glove). Thaiss is a bit more confusing, yes; he never projected to the power for 1b.

Beth: Who’s your top HS pitcher right now?
Keith Law: I’m almost afraid to give you a name because they all seem to get hurt. It’s probably Carter Stewart at the moment over Grayson Rodriguez or Cole Winn (lower upside, way more polished). Ethan Hankins is back but I’m told he hasn’t been top-of-draft good since he returned. Liberatore has been fine, not up to 97 like he was in his first outing, but I think he’s still top 15 picks good. Matt Vasel’s season just started – he’s a cold weather name to watch.

Eric: What do you think Kopech will do this year once he gets called up?
Keith Law: Miss a lot of bats, walk maybe 10-12% of batters. Very high on him long term but don’t be shocked if he needs 40-50 starts in the majors before he becomes an above-average starter.

chuck: What do you make of the Almonte for Almonte trade? Seems odd KC would dump their Almonte for the 28 year old OF Almonte
Keith Law: I love Miguel Almonte as a swingman type – spot starter, longer relief outings, will show you three potentially above-average weapons, has had trouble with a starter’s workload.

Jesse B: Thoughts on Jahmai Jones moving to 2B. If it works, does this significantly increase his value?
Keith Law: It does, since he wasn’t staying in CF in that organization with Marsh right behind him.

Stephanie: Thoughts in Amed Rosario batting so low in the order? Think he gets a chance at 10hr/25sb this year?
Keith Law: This bothers me less; nothing really wrong with starting a young player lower in the lineup and moving him up as his performance warrants it. Those seem like reasonable milestones for him. He’s got more power than his brief stint last year would indicate.

Jeff: What should I be most excited about from Ohtani’s first week? So far I think it’s that even if he doesn’t make a lot of contact at least the power is there.
Keith Law: Power was definitely there, but he’s not going to get a lot of fastballs out over the plate like yesterday. I’m way more pleased to see his velocity so strong and command/control better than what I saw a month ago.

Adam: Thoughts on Folty’s new delivery?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen this yet.

Nelson: Keith, I hate your music taste, I dont play board games and I have no interest in High school baseball players. But your book recommendations are so amazingly on point its like youre talking directly to me. Thanks!
Keith Law: I’ll take it. I’m sure the number of people who follow my tastes in all areas and are prospect-crazy is pretty small.

Deke: My wife and I had twin sons just under six months ago. One of them goes for his third open-heart surgery in a week and a half. (Hopefully his last!) I just want to offer up an #fyeahbaseball for providing a much-needed distraction now that it’s back.
Keith Law: Deke: Sorry to hear that. I hope the surgery goes well.

Dave: I know you’ve always been one of the high guys on Jordan Hicks, do you think Cards try him in the rotation at all this year?
Keith Law: Probably, although I’m not sure he has the consistency in his delivery yet to help them in that role. Huge upside, kind of a ways off from it.

Bruce: Do you ever go to games in the NECBL (New England Collegiate Baseball League)?
Keith Law: Not in a long time. It’s way below the Cape.

Endy Chavez: Do you have MoviePass? Seems like something you’d be interested in
Keith Law: I do – I did, and it expired, and for some reason I had to sign up anew, but yes, I got my money’s worth (well, Chris Crawford’s money, since he bought me the first one).

Arin, d-town ca: What are the Rockies doing with McMahon? Why have him on their roster if he is only going to pitch hit and get 1 at bat a game?
Keith Law: You can add that to the list of things the Rockies are doing that I don’t understand, below giving a 32-year-old position player a six-year deal.

Beth: Is Casey Mize going 1?
Keith Law: I think he would, today, if his medicals are OK. There is a rumor running around that he’s got an elbow issue, but I don’t really see how anyone could know that since he hasn’t sent medicals to teams yet and the MLB top 200 MRI deal hasn’t happened yet, so if you see people talking about his elbow, bear in mind that it’s not really possible to source that, and it’s either pure speculation or someone trying to talk Mize down.

Jesse: You often say to ignore spring stats. Regarding Ohtani, is this a case of SSS for both the spring and now regular season, or was his poor spring a giant overreaction?
Keith Law: His stuff was down in the spring, and that’s not something we should just ignore … but it also was wrong to overreact like a lot of media members did (and some scouts, too, I think). I saw him pitch poorly, and still picked him for AL ROY. The long view isn’t that hard to take.

Josh in DC: Even though we’re only six games into the season, Alex Cora rotated through a lot of regulars so far. What’s your feeling about the merits of that style of managing?
Keith Law: I am fine with it, especially with the weather so cold in the northeast.

Harry Reins: The Orioles are putting Harvey on a 3 inning per start restriction in Bowie with an eye to bringing him onto the MLB club later in the year. Am I the only one who thinks this is a bad idea? What are the dangers of rushing a guy like that?
Keith Law: He’s 23, so while he’s barely pitched in pro ball, I can’t call this “rushing” a guy at that age who’s already on the 40 man. My concern would be if they bring him up and try to use him as a one-inning reliever, which means a lot of back-to-back work, which probably isn’t conducive to keeping him healthy.

PJ in JC: Arquimedes Gamboa. A guy or a GUY? You mentioned him in your Clearwater preview today but he wasn’t in your Phillies roundup.
Keith Law: Just a guy who’s notable for his big bonus. I saw him two weeks ago and he’d lost a lot of speed as he’s filled out.

Eric: Thoughts on Ohtani at the plate after a few games?
Keith Law: Same as before those few games. But it’s April 5th, so we are in Peak Overreaction Season.

Dave: Whatever happened to Karsten Whitson? bb ref just has a single season of milb in 2014.
Keith Law: Hurt. He might be the biggest “he should have taken the money” guy of the last decade. He ended up with about $2 million less as a result.

Jon: Hey Keith, my first time on the chat. Not sure if this is off-topic (or maybe you’ll already talked about this), but I’m curious as to your thoughts on Kapler and if you’re surprised at the fans’ reaction in Philly. Thanks!
Keith Law: I am going to break my own record for using the word “overreact” in some form. I think the knives are out for him because he’s smart, and because he’s doing different things. The one thing he’s done that I truly thought was a blunder was calling for a reliever who wasn’t warmed up.

Carl: It’s early, but as of now, in your opinion who has the highest ceiling for the Tigers to choose #1 overall?
Keith Law: Mize is clearly the best guy in the class. If it’s not him, for whatever reason, then the Tigers should probably identify 3-4 guys they rank at the top and see who’ll take the best deal so they can go over slot at their next pick (there are a lot of HS arms this year who’ll be perfect for that).

Jr: No thoughts for animal welfare with the eating meat question?
Keith Law: No.

Mark: Are you higher on Sheffield or Addams for the Yankees? Can either evolve into an ace in the future?
Keith Law: One was in my global top 20 this winter and one didn’t make my top 100 because I don’t see how he can start with his size and lack of FB plane.

Bruce: So the Reds are making Hunter Greene an SP only. Do you think this is the right call?
Keith Law: This isn’t news – I saw a reporter tweet it like this was breaking news, but this has been the case since he signed. He has, at best, a 40 future hit tool.

Nick: Not really a question. Just wanted to say that Dozier is a really good dude, and I hope that’s not lost in all this over a dumb comment.
Keith Law: I’m sure that’s the case – he could help matters by just saying, yeah, I spoke too soon, Sisco was fine, you play to win the game.

Ted Leon: If the whole paying players minimum wage was really a big deal to fans and media, then why is no one talking about it now? The fight is not lost. There are other ways to improve the lives of these guys.
Keith Law: There are indeed, but MLB has made it quite clear they will not do so unless forced to by law, by court, or by collective bargaining.

Greg P: How fast do you think the Jays will move Bichette up the ladder? A year at each level?
Keith Law: They haven’t done that yet – he played at two levels last year and I’d be shocked if he and Vlad were still in AA on August 1st.

Margot: Why can’t more players, top line pitchers especially, go straight from college to MLB? If you have dominant stuff why do you need a year in the minors?
Keith Law: Huge difference in caliber of competition between even the best college baseball (SEC/ACC) and the worst lineup in the majors.

Eric: Who has the better career: Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, or Luis Robert?
Keith Law: Eloy.

Mark: Is Justin Hooper someone that could have helium in the 2018 draft? I remember hearing a lot of hype around him in 2015 out of HS, but haven’t heard much about him leading into this year.
Keith Law: Had TJ, out for the year.

Benjamin: So mackenzie gore- potential 60 fb, cb, sl, ch, command??? That seems like ace potential yes??? I know aces are extremely rare but someone has to be??? Also is forrest whitley a 1 or 2?
Keith Law: I’ve never seen a teenaged lefty with what Gore has. (I saw all of one inning of Kershaw before he reached the majors.) It’s nuts.

Chad: You’ve mentioned Taylor Clarke as a potential contributor for the D-backs later this season. Would this be as a starter? Or in the bullpen? Also, I’m in a pizza club here in Phoenix (we try a new pizza restaurant 2 times a month) we love your recommendations!
Keith Law: Starter for me. Heard he had better stuff and command this spring from multiple scouts. You probably could give me better recs at this point!

Brandon: Braves are starting Max Fried at AA this year. Any idea why he’s not at least getting the starts in AAA over Wisler/Blair? Also, is he a rotation guy at this point?
Keith Law: I hate seeing Fried in AA – I think he’s among the top 5 starters in the system right now – but I believe this is a sort of final evaluation for guys like Wisler, Blair, Folty, Newcomb, Sims, after which the team will make some decisions on starter/reliever or even keep/trade (I think Wisler is out of options after this year).

Gretchen: Will I be able to watch Vlad Guerrero Jr this year on the Blue Jays before I move out of Toronto in September?
Keith Law: Might depend on when you move. I think he’ll get the call.

Mike P.: Schwarber’s new physique hasn’t seemed to improve his defense or baserunning; wouldn’t it behoove the Cubs to trade him for anything/BPA/etc. ?
Keith Law: They’ve probably missed his peak value but yes, I think trading him would be a good move, because they can’t maximize his value without the DH spot.

Hinkie: I know it’s early, but any word yet on what draft prospects the Phillies seem to be scouting the hardest/most frequent ?
Keith Law: It’s early. I’ve seen their guys at every game I’ve been to where there was a potential first-rounder on the field, including Mize, McClanahan, Singer/Kowar, etc. Gotta see them all.

Andres: Like me, did your heart skip a beat with the official announcement with the deets on the new Arctic Monkey’s album?
Keith Law: I missed this – May 11th!

Benny: Does Sheldon Neuse become a productive major leaguer?
Keith Law: Yes.

John: Seems to me Moncada has had a slow start for a #1 prospect. Is this just a learning curve or something more?
Keith Law: I think his swing is going to lead to a lot of swinging and missing – he loads deep with a bat-wrap and you can beat a guy like that inside. Still a lot of physical upside there, though.

Sara: What are your thoughts on the Blackmon deal? Any concern the fox committed to long to an aging outfielder without the option of making him a DH?
Keith Law: Mentioned above – I don’t get it, it’s counter to everything the industry has learned about how players age. Even if you don’t believe Coors is at all a factor in his career, it’s still a terrible gamble to think a player who’s an average defender in center now will still have this kind of value at age 35-37.

Justin R: Any plans on watching the Roseanne reboot?
Keith Law: Good lord no.

Levi: Any chance you make it to a yard goats game this season? It’ll be my first time tonight to see the NH kids
Keith Law: Probably this summer. I can see Vlad/Bo next week in Trenton.

Tristan: Do you see Scott Kingery displacing someone in the Phillies’ starting lineup this season, or getting his 450 ABs moving around all year?
Keith Law: From talking to them I think he’s going to move around most of the year, a lot of 2b and 3b, but that at some point there will be a spot for him – they’ll trade Cesar, or Franco will need to play less, or someone will get hurt.

Dr. Bob: Everyone needs to take a deep breath and repeat this: It’s just six games…it’s just six games…it’s just six games.
Keith Law: Every year. It has never changed in my 12 springs here.

Noah: Don’t know if you’re a Vaccines fan, but their new record is really good.
Keith Law: Last song by them I really liked was “Teenage Icon.”

JR: Started reading Clockers (per your recommendation). Feels like I’ve been moved back into the world of The Wire, and I love it.
Keith Law: Lush Life is even better. He creates such realistic intense worlds.

Trixie: Have you ever read a novel in one sitting?
Keith Law: Yep, on planes especially.

Jax : Were you surprised when Colorado re-signed CarGo & killed Tapia’s chance to start? Or did they get him back for cheap enough money for it to be worth it?
Keith Law: That’s also on the list. As well as three-year deals for relievers.

Justin R: How do you find so much time for reading, writing, cooking, etc? I’m trying to write a novel, but working 50 hours/week, family obligations, commuting makes it damn near impossible.
Keith Law: I probably don’t sleep enough, and I rarely do just one thing … if I’m cleaning up after cooking, I’m listening to a podcast or watching a show on the iPad. And I’m kind of writing in my head all the time.

Randy: In a previous chat you said that there’s a fair chance that Keibert Ruiz hit’s his way off catcher. What other position do you think he could play?
Keith Law: If he hits like I think he can hit, it wouldn’t matter.

Dane26: Does Akil Baddoo have the tools to be an above-average regular?
Keith Law: Absolutely.

Benjamin: Is a splitter like what casey mize and shohei throw more stressful on a pitchers arm??
Keith Law: This is a persistent belief without actual evidence to prove or disprove it. Mize throws a split-change, not a true splitter. Is that better, worse, irrelevant?

Aaron C.: Do you anticipate any pre-draft high school scouting trips to Southern California? Just curious as to any names out here to keep an eye on. Thanks!
Keith Law: No, I saw Turang and Winn last week and that’s it for SoCal preps this year. I’l be in Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and the mid-Atlantic the rest of the way, plus the ACC tourney, and, weather permitting, Lexington, KY, tomorrow.

Randy: I know ST stats don’t matter, but R. Armententeros struck out 24 in 16 innings and was up to 94 w/ what looked like a plus change. #3 starter upside?
Keith Law: I don’t believe he hit 94 or that he’d pitch with anything like that as a starter, but I do think he is a starter, maybe league-average ceiling.

John: Hunter Greene is starting out in A, which sounds about right. It did make me curious about A vs. A+; what is the tangible difference between the levels and would it really matter to a prospect like Greene?
Keith Law: He’s still just 18, all year, working on slider consistency and fastball command right now, with changeup development probably a secondary consideration at the moment. I don’t think he can just blow low-A guys away with velocity, and if that’s right, then he’s in the right spot.

Alex: I know you love cooking. I do too, and I’m trying to get my son (6 yrs) interested. Were there any cookbooks you found helped you with your daughter?
Keith Law: No – it’s been much more productive to just have her work alongside me, even if she never did much but flip a tortilla or ‘knead’ some dough. Being there, being involved, was what got her interested.

Patrick: Keith, in taking the fun out of everything…have you ever scouted a player not originally on your radar, but raves from people you know in the industry led you to?
Keith Law: I go where scout friends tell me to go.

Larry: When you come to the Midwest to see Kelenic are you going to swing by champagne to see Spillane ? It looks like those massive tools are finally starting to translate.
Keith Law: I forgot Kelenic – he’s barely out of the gym but almost certainly on my list. Spillane no.

Troy: Does Paul DeYoung have what it takes to be a middle of the order bat in the big leagues?
Keith Law: No, but I do think he’ll stay for good this time.

Patrick: Anything you can say to make me feel good about Corbin Burnes being assigned to CO Springs for AAA?
Keith Law: I feel like that front office doesn’t see Colorado Springs the way I do, or, I think, many coaches/execs do – a deleterious environment for developing pitching prospects.

Tracy: I also take a lot of value out of your book reviews and novels rankings. I lean toward reading more non-fiction books (actually, a lot) so I appreciate your efforts and it’s really broadened my horizons. Thanks. Also, Scott Pruitt is an even bigger slimebag than I had previously given him credit for.
Keith Law: I still need to write up David Grann’s latest book, which was incredible (especially the audio version, where Will Patton read the middle section and really set the mood and tone).

Bobbo: thanks as always for the chats. i was always under the impression that if a young pitcher has TJ, he misses about a year of time and then resumes baseball activities. today i read that Thomas Szapucki is out for the whole year (added to the half-year last season). is this the new typical? how do you see his near future playing out?
Keith Law: Rehab protocol is anywhere from 12 to 16 months if there’s no setback.

Jax : I think Ketel Marte could hit .275/.345/.420 this year. You taking the over or under on that? Or is it about right?
Keith Law: Eyeballing it, sure, I’d buy that.

Davis: At what point does Goodwin’s bat outweigh Taylor’s glove?
Keith Law: Probably right about when Robles steamrolls them both.

BPS: Matt Vasel?? Do you mean Mike Vasil?
Keith Law: Yeah, I’m sorry it was so hard for you to figure that out.

Dave: Keith, no question, but loads of thanks for the great book, the entertainment your chats have given me over the years, your talking and advice on depression and anxiety that have helped me with my own issues, and your food recommendations that have made me a rock star in my group of friends (Nashville in particular!). If you are ever in Baltimore, I run a restaurant in little italy and would love to offer you a great meal sometime
Keith Law: I’ll take you up on that at some point. And I’m very glad to have been able to help with your mental health issues. The stigma we still see around these extremely common medical problems is a huge reason why so many people still don’t get treatment, or don’t get enough treatment.
Keith Law: Well, that, and the disastrous state of health insurance in this country.

Adam: Sad to see Lindgren with another TJ Surgery……that slider was unhittable
Keith Law: Yeah, I wonder if he’s just done. That would be a huge shame.

John: How did you choose a literary agent? Or if that’s unique to your circumstances, any advice for an average Joe to find/pick one?
Keith Law: My literary agent, Eric Lupfer, was with my talent agency at the time, although he has since left for a boutique.

Chris: Is Clayton Kershaw’s drop in velocity (a) concerning, (b) something on which to keep an eye out, or (c) Jesus Christ it’s been 2 starts so calm down?
Keith Law: I could just use (c) for half the questions this week.

Chris: I have a question re: cooking. Most of the recipes (I use America’s Test Kitchen books/recipes) worth a salt call for fresh herbs and spices. You go to the grocery store to buy them, and the package enough to make 50 8-course meals. How do you store them? I waste an entire container of fresh thyme for one stupid sprig.
Keith Law: If possible, growing some is the best answer, especially thyme (grows like mad, lasts well into the winter, comes back most years) or sage (even hardier, never use enough). Otherwise, think of more ways to utilize them – just because a recipe doesn’t call for thyme doesn’t mean you can’t use it – and store out of the clamshell or bag, wrapped in a paper towel, in the crisper drawer. Except basil, which you have to use within a few days.

Jax : I still can’t figure out why Detroit would rather have Fiers & Liriano in their rotation instead of Norris. Is this an effort to try to establish some trade value for Fiers or Liriano?
Keith Law: Maybe a reaction to Norris losing a little velo this spring? I’m flummoxed too.

Bob: Hi Keith. How do you feel about Long Island? I’m from there as well, and I’ve never been a fan.
Keith Law: It’s long, and definitely an island, so it has those two things going for it.

Hinkie: When will your updated top 30 for the draft be out? Also, could you give me an early top three picks mock … 1 Tigers ______, 2 Giants _______, 3 Phillies _______.
Keith Law: I’ll do a new ranking later this month. I won’t even pretend to know what 1-2-3 will be right now.

Margot: I get that the caliber of competition is different. My point is that if you have three 60+ pitches why can’t you go right to the MLB. What does one year do?
Keith Law: It’s about much more than pure stuff. Command, control, facing much better hitters 3x, working with a staff, calling your own games (most college coaches call games themselves, which, to me, is the second shittiest thing about college baseball after pitcher overuse).

Jon: Frankie Montas is almost out of options do you see him as a RP or does he still have SP potential
Keith Law: I have never believed he could start. Poor command, bad body, knee issues at a young age. Big velocity, but that was kind of the whole package.

Mike B: I’m definitely not asking about results from a small two-start sample size, but at least Bundy is missing some bats and his “stuff” looks decent. Is there reason to hope he can be a decent starter IF he stays healthy?
Keith Law: Statcast had a lot of 90-92 in his last start. Was he throwing harder early in the game?

Bill: Brien Taylor, another teenaged left with some good stuff. But I suppose you were not scouting then.
Keith Law: No, he’s about 18 months older than I am.

Pat: Is Kelenic an option for Detroit at 1-1? If you had 1-1, would you take best player or one of 3-4 guys that will sign for the least?
Keith Law: I know he’s among the guys they have on their short (long?) list, and they had him in for a workout in Lakeland. But I think he’s played exactly one game this spring, so I don’t know how anyone could decide he’s 1-1 at this point (and I know you’re not saying that). I would do what I said above – if Mize checks out, he’s the best player and you take him, and if not, you shop the deal.

Tim McSwigginsonville: do you de-bone your chicken thighs before sous-vid’ing?
Keith Law: No. Afterwards the meat separates from the bone much more easily.

Seath: Were you pleased to see the twins started Rooker at AA? You think he could contribute to the big club this year?
Keith Law: I was – shows they get the issue around his age and also believe his new-ish swing is going to work at the lower levels. Don’t waste his time; if he’s going to be good, it will happen very soon.

Freddy: Every time I see Fried, his FB is straight as an arrow and gets crushed. Data even shows it doesn’t move much at all. Is this not a concern?
Keith Law: It’s his third best pitch. Plus to 70 CB, plus CH.

Nick: Why is being patriotic and proud of our country considered hate speech now? Can’t we acknowledge we have a great country and acknowledge there is room for improvement at the same time?
Keith Law: You can claim we have a great country, but saying we should “acknowledge” it implies that it is true and beyond dispute.

Sean: How do you decide which book to read next? I assume you have a long list to pick from. What are some you have lined up your most excited to read?
Keith Law: Lincoln the Bardo, Improvement, The Ministry of Utmost Happiness are all in the queue.

Jim: Just admit you eat animals because you’re a selfish coward.
Keith Law: I eat animals because it pisses off assholes like you.

mike sixel: Looking for a funny book, that isn’t SUPER long. Recommendations?
Keith Law: Anything by Wodehouse. Or how about Hugh Laurie’s The Gun Seller?

JJG: Do you have a favorite podcasts list somewhere?
Keith Law: No, but I’ve mentioned The Hidden Brain, Grierson & Leitch, Cinephile, The Inquiry, and have just gotten into the ten-episode series The Assassination, also from the BBC about the death of Benazir Bhutto.

PD: Watched the new episode of Legion? I rewatched season 1 and it works a lot better the second time through.
Keith Law: On the DVR.

Dr. Bob: This is what SSS does to you. STL’s Carlos Martinez has occasional mental lapses on the mound. He looked lost at times in ST, then had a really rough first game. The BFIB ™ are up in arms. Last night, he pitches brilliantly. Some guys are just going to take you on a ride. Hold on.
Keith Law: It’s almost like spring training is just practice.

Sam: Think Carson Fulmer gets it together and sticks as a solid SP? Seems his stuff is excellent but fastball command isn’t always there
Keith Law: Very straight FB too. Reliever for me.

Leith Kaw: When people discuss Moncada, do they realize he was top 3 in 2B DRS last year in just a third of a season? That defense alone, plus his walk/power combo, makes him a great player even with the strikeouts.
Keith Law: UZR had him below average last year. I think you’re cherrypicking, or just ignoring that these defensive metrics aren’t that reliable (predictive) in such a small sample. And I personally do not think he’s a great defender.

Gary: We loved Monteverde in Chicago. Wife and daughter are in NYC and looking for a non-pizza restaurant recommendation from you in the city.
Keith Law: Gosh, I go to NYC and I usually just want pizza. Narcissa is fantastic, very vegetable-focused, one of my favorite restaurants to hit and skip meat altogether.

Corey: back to your comment about “3 year deals for relievers” Kimbrel is a FA after this year. if you’re Boston do you give him a deal for longer than 3 yrs, do you give him a deal at all ?
Keith Law: No reason not to give him a deal, is there? No way I go four years on any reliever, ever. The history of those contracts is bad.

Sam: So you go on a scouting trip and see a player who excites you that wasn’t on your list to watch. You check and see that no one else has picked up on him either…who do you tell?
Keith Law: The odds of this happening are almost nil. I’m not seeing obscure guys.

Russell: What would your plan be with Profar if you were the Rangers?
Keith Law: I just wish he could play every day.

Larry: Can Jonathan India work his way into the first round?
Keith Law: Into the back, maybe. I think there’s some serious overreaction (!) right now to a hot few weeks. He was terrible last year as a sophomore for a potential high pick a year later, and I don’t think he has a lot of upside.

Trav: I read that as “shellfish coward”
Keith Law: I’m more afraid of red meat anyway. (I’ve stopped eating beef and haven’t had lamb in years.)

Franklin: Have you tried the “Impossible Burger?”
Keith Law: No – one of those appeared in my local Whole Foods briefly but was gone before I got to try it. I would, though. I’ll try just about anything once.

Nick: So you think America is trash? That says a lot about you, Keith.
Keith Law: You are really, really good at crafting strawman arguments.

Bort: Where are you at on Alex Bohm? Can he stay at third?
Keith Law: Maybe – has the arm, not a bad athlete, just BIG. Love the swing, definitely think he’s a top 20 pick on merit, even before we get to the inflation college hitters get on draft day.

Rick: Are you getting nervous about being the low man on Ohtani?
Keith Law: For saying he could be an ace and AL ROY?

Adam: Has Nunez always been such a bad defender? Watching him struggle with basic plays so far this year is brutal
Keith Law: Eduardo? Yes.

Jarrod: Not sure if this is what David (NY) was getting at, but now I’m curious… What do you think of the Athletic as a source for sports journalism (relative to other websites in this arena)?
Keith Law: They have so many writers that I couldn’t generalize. I’ve read some great stuff there, I’ve read some not great stuff. They’ve hired some of the best writers I know, and a couple of guys I wouldn’t read if you paid ME to do it. With that many people on staff, how could it be otherwise?

PhillyJake: I know you’ve posted it in the path, but please remind me why you don’t eat red meat anymore?
Keith Law: I have an inborn error of metabolism that affects my body’s ability to process the essential amino acid leucine. I do still eat pork, but not much, and get more protein now from vegetable sources than I ever did before, although when I’ve tried to give up more animal sources in the past, I’ve run into a lot of blood-sugar problems (also related to the genetic condition).

Alan: Is Bohm a top 5 guy? Seems to have some helium.
Keith Law: He could go there, but I think that’s too rich.

Alan: Swaggerty seemed to cooled off since a hot start. Still a top guy? Any concerns?
Keith Law: Needs to start hitting again, but if he does, he goes top 5. True CF, 65 runner, few if any college bats in the middle of the field this year. That’s going to run Joey Bart up the board, maybe to the top ten, because he’s a catcher and there are so few college catchers in this draft.

PJ: Blake Swihart … Cora suggested he could be a Marwin-type for Bost., but that’s not realistic, is it?
Keith Law: Why not? I think he can hit and play a bunch of positions.

Dr. Bob: If I invite you for dinner, I can work around no red meat. If someone else has a nut allergy, no problem. My son and his girlfriend are vegetarians; lots of cheese dishes. A vegan? We’re just going to have coffee or tea ’cause I got nothing.
Keith Law: Vegan is tough. Losing dairy is a real obstacle, although I have eaten vegan meals with cashew-milk products replacing dairy that were actually good, not just passable.

Teeb: Thoughts on the Pompeys: Does Dalton ever become a guy and where’s Tristan getting picked?
Keith Law: Tristan somewhere in the 20-40 range. Dalton, ship might have sailed there.

Jim: **** you, Keith.
Keith Law: Aw, Jimbo’s mad. Came to my chat, called me a “selfish coward,” and is surprised I clapped back. Tough. You have every right to insult me, but that doesn’t mean I have to take it.

JR: After review, Conforto hit a 2R HR. Terry even more pissed.
Keith Law: You know who must be even happier that Terry the Terrible is gone? Plawecki. Terry told the media Plawecki couldn’t hit. Now he’s getting a chance to play and doesn’t have to worry that his manager thinks he sucks.

John: Somebody tell Jim when the Self Righteous Vegetarian chat is.
Keith Law: There are good arguments for vegetarianism, from the environment to physical health to concerns about how animals raised for mass-produced meat are treated. I’m happy to hear & discuss those. I think that humanity as a whole needs to cut its meat consumption – and that climate change & limited water resources will force us to do so at some point. Reducing consumption & waste, and perhaps enforcing tougher standards for meat production – not under this administration, unfortunately – those are reasonable goals.

Rich Campbell: Real time news: Trayce Thompson joining A’s in Anaheim. Is he a fourth OF? Or more?
Keith Law: Fourth OF. Can really defend, can crush a mistake.

Jack: Can you use frozen fish to make ceviche?
Keith Law: I’ve never made ceviche. I leave raw fish preparations to the professionals. They can source better than I can. (Also, I would not recommend using frozen fish.)

Mucho Maas: Thoughts on Reynaldo Lopez and his new velo/slider?
Keith Law: Lopez’s new velo? Dude was 95-100 in the minors.

Colin: Preston Tucker or Nick Markakis?
Keith Law: Ronald Acuna.
Keith Law: OK, went long this week since I may be traveling next Thursday. Thank you all – except you, Jim, you’re not very nice – for all of your questions and for reading. I’ll be out and about a lot this month so I hope to see many of you at minor league or amateur games – feel free to say hi, and I’ll be happy to sign any copies of Smart Baseball if you happen to have one with you.

Starting at 1 pm ET.

My latest board game review at Paste Magazine covers Sakura, a new game from Reiner Knizia with a high screw-your-opponents aspect to it. I also joined Joe Posnanski and Michael Schur on the Poscast this week to talk season preview and hot fruit but mostly hot fruit.

Keith Law: When expectations make no sense … Klawchat.

Aaron Gershoff: Thank you for not sticking to baseball – one dimensional people suck. How many execs ask you for your advice on players? Obviously you have contacts all over baseball, just wondering if it goes both ways.
Keith Law: I talk to execs & scouts often about players and we share opinions in both directions. Whether that counts as ‘advice’ is kind of up to you. I’d rather not be any more specific.

Jeremy: Can you help sort out the Braves SP stable of SP Folty, Newcomb, Wisler, Gohara, Sims, Allard, Soroka, Wright & Touki? Thanks Klaw!
Keith Law: I have a feeling the natural attrition of starters will sort it out before I do. I think Wright is the top guy in that list, with the highest probability of remaining a starter, and Sims or Wisler at the bottom. Gohara, Soroka, and Allard are all on that starter/reliever bubble.

Sean: Keith, at this point how high can you see Connor Scott rising in the draft? Is the top 10 possible, a la Austin Beck?
Keith Law: At this point, no. That’s not to say it can’t happen come June, but I haven’t heard anything like that on Scott. By this time last year Beck was already getting that sort of hype.

Max: Hi Keith. Why Willy Adames is so high ranked in prospect lists? Is it the sum of the parts? Because I can’t see a single tool that stands out.
Keith Law: Doesn’t have to have a standout tool to be an above-average regular. He’s also hit well for his age at every level, including AAA, and projects to play somewhere on the dirt.

Moe Mentum: Is there anything you *don’t* like about being an Ivy League graduate? Maybe things like loftier expectations, presumed snobbishness, or something else that a prospective student might not consider?
Keith Law: My academic experience there wasn’t great; classes are large, and you’re taught more by grad students than by professors, so while I can say, for example, I took a class from Martin Feldstein (one-time head of the CEA under Reagan), it’s not like I ever got with 100 meters of the guy. It’s also probably not an ideal environment for a student with untreated anxiety, which I was. Being a graduate, however, is mostly upside. I get the occasional asshat who thinks any time I mention my alma mater I’m bragging, but that’s the internet for you.

Patrick: Good afternoon Keith! Which spring training locale is better suited for you to scout, AZ or FLA?
Keith Law: Arizona all day every day. One hotel for the entire month. Florida for me is often a new hotel each night. And Arizona has better food, better weather, and better roads. This may flip when Arizona runs out of water in three to five years, though.

Sean: Keith, Have we reached a point where the only way we’ll see a HS RHP taken 1-1 is if that player agrees to discount his value significantly enough to mitigate his risk profile?
Keith Law: What you will need is a prep RHP who checks all the boxes but has little/no interest in college or a commitment to a strong program. The biggest obstacle for recent top prep right-handers has been perceived price tags.

Deke: Would you consider your minor league scouting of Eric Hosmer to be a hit or a miss? He is a bona fide major leaguer with legitimate skill, but this feels at least multiple steps below what you and others envisioned for him.
Keith Law: Probably neither; he’s had stretches where he’s played like everyone expected, and longer stretches where he hasn’t.

George: Torres to AAA isn’t completely unreasonable, right?
Keith Law: I thought all along this was the right move. I am less enamored with demoting Andujar in favor of major leaguers who are marginally better.

Camden: How would you describe MacKenzie Gore’s ceiling?
Keith Law: Number one starter.

EJ: Obviously the spring is a tiny sample size, but if you were the Angels would you start Ohtani in AAA or in the bigs?
Keith Law: Don’t care about spring stats, as you know. If he’s not able to figure out this delivery issue – I wrote he’s not repeating it and getting to his release point – before Opening Day, I might leave him in extended spring training to get some one-on-one work in controlled situations. I think sending him to Salt Lake is kind of a bad idea all around, other than that the Buzz’s ownership would be ecstatic.

ScottyD in Snowy Malvern, PA: The Blue Jays – Are they trying to contend in 2018 or just holding the fort until the new kids are ready in 2019 like Guerrero Jr., Bichette, Gurriel, Alford et al.?
Keith Law: I can’t see them contending this year; they’d need exceptional health across the board plus several breakout years. I think they’re holding the fort, as you say, for Vlad Jr. and Bichette. I don’t think Gurriel belongs in that last sentence, though.

WhiteSoxAndy: Will Michael Kopech be up this year or will he spend the entire year in the minors?
Keith Law: My guess is he debuts after the All-Star Break.

Seth: I’m happy that Alex Cobb got market value, considering all the players who had to take much less than they deserve. But what in the world are the Orioles doing? Did they have their heads in a ditch and miss the memo on “collusion”?
Keith Law: I liked the deal. As long as he’s healthy, that’s a contract with trade value. He’ll give them some innings they need – their rotation is bad, potentially awful – and there’s still some performance upside here. I don’t love them giving up a pick, but otherwise I think it’s fair value for a good pitcher who should get better.

Andrew: Outside of Acuna, which of the Braves’ prospects has impressed most in Spring Training?
Keith Law: I’ll be in Atlanta camp Sunday and/or Monday.

Mike: How will Anthopolous impact Atlanta’s draft tendencies, if at all? With Bridges still being there, will they still lean towards upside, high school players, or does Anthopolous have a different reputation?
Keith Law: That was Anthopoulos’ preference in Toronto – they aimed high, went for the best player available, took some calculated gambles. I don’t expect a huge shift; if there’s a change, it might be that they’re less likely to take someone like Kyle Muller, who was more stuff and size at age 18 than athleticism or potential upside in command/refinement.

Travis: What are your thoughts on Greyson Jenista?
Keith Law: Weather permitting I will see him in about ten days. I hear he and Bohm are potential end of the first round guys, maybe a little better as college bats always run up the board on draft day.

Greg: Any recent draft buzz inside the top 10? Guys moving up or down?
Keith Law: Too early for that.

Mr. Nerdstrom: If you had to guess, which of the 30 bench coaches in MLB is most likely to land a managing gig in the next couple of seasons?
Keith Law: I doubt I could name even 3 current bench coaches in the majors.

Greg: Thinking about Atlanta’s international limitations, is there anywhere they can shift that money that would make sense and still benefit the organization?
Keith Law: Only if there’s an unrestricted international free agent out there. I guess if Yusei Kikuchi is posted next winter, he’d be a candidate.

Slick Rick Hahn: Giolito looking promising, Fulmer… not so much. Who’s spring means more to you, Giolito’s improvement or Fulmer’s complete lack of command?
Keith Law: Giolito’s stuff improvement means more than his results. I’ve said since he was a sophomore that I don’t believe Fulmer can start. Nothing here has changed.

Preston: What are reasonable expectations for Tyler Chatwood this year? I don’t want the only expectation to be simply “better than Lackey,” but that’s where I am right now. And he’ll at least surpass that.
Keith Law: 150-160 innings of a 4ish ERA and 2 WAR. I know teams that lean heavily on Statcast info believe he has upside based on that, but I think he has other question marks, like control or lack of an effective change, that remain.

Dan: Do college coaches hide player birthdays from prospective teams (or at least not make them publicly available) for guys who are potential draft eligible sophs? Or is there too much coverage now for this info to be effectively hidden?
Keith Law: You can’t hide that info. Even if they tried, the players’ advisers would get it out there.

Boris: breakout players article coming soon?
Keith Law: I believe I answered that with the opening quote.

BRIAN: If you were the Yankee brass, would you consider moving Sanchez from behind the plate? No DH at bats are really available. His bat is probably the best on the team. His catching is “average” at best. Wouldnt the team be better off with him playing 150 games rather than 120 and being beaten up?
Keith Law: If they find a better option, yes, I would, for the reason you cite at the end – an extra 120 or so PA plus reduced injury risk. However, I’d like to see Greg Bird show he can play a remotely capable 1B before giving Sanchez the DH spot.

Alex: What’s the last thing you cooked sous vide?
Keith Law: Duck, I think. Been a few weeks since I busted that out with all my travel and dealing with this weather nonsense. I’ve pushed back three trips now due to weather – two snowstorms here, and one rainout in Georgia.

JP: If the Red Sox come to a roster crunch when Pedroia comes off the DL, would you rather trade/DFA: Leon, Swihart, Vasquez, or Holt? I’d vote Holt, if only because Sale supposedly likes having Leon catch for him.
Keith Law: Probably Holt. Nice bench player, will definitely be claimed if they just waive him, but now I’m punting on Swihart.

Mike: Sean Newcomb looking good this spring with limiting his walks/balls thrown. I can’t help but thinking he could break out this season. What should my realistic expectations be?
Keith Law: Realistic expectations would require ignoring his spring training stats and expecting his control to be where it was last year. (One anecdote in favor of my argument about ST stats: Newcomb’s best start of the spring, on 3/12, came against a Phillies lineup with Adam Rosales at 1b, Pedro Florimon in LF, and Jesmuel Valentin at 3b.)

Ben: Did you get to see Jesus Lazardo in AZ? Is it unreasonable to think that Lazardo could surpass AJ Puk as a prospect by the end of this season? Thanks.
Keith Law: I didn’t see him, but no, I don’t think that’s reasonable to think. Puk is the #2 LH prospect in baseball, and he’s been continuously improving since he signed.

Ryan: I’m a Mets fan who’s interested in seeing how Dom and Rosario develop. Putting aside the issues the team must have with the latter, what do you think fair projections are for both if they are given a chance to play regularly?
Keith Law: The team seems to have weird issues with both, but I would guess Rosario would hit .270-280 with low walk & strikeout rates and maybe 8-10 homers, adding value on defense; while Smith would be more .280/.340/.420 sort of range. I looked at ZiPS for Smith, and Dan has him .272/.324/.430 with 20 HR in 156 g. That seems very reasonable to me too.

HugoZ: To stop the service time games, how about making 90 days on the 25-man anytime during a season be the definition of a “year” of service time?
Keith Law: I believe if you do that you’ll see a lot of guys with 89 days of service each year. Wherever you set the bar, you will see teams respond to it in kind.

Jr: Do teams monitor what other teams are doing in player development?
Keith Law: Yes but player development is much more opaque than scouting (to other teams or to us).

Adam B: If Nick Senzel plays full time at SS or 2B how much does his value increase? Do you think he can handle playing SS?
Keith Law: I think he’ll be well below average at short and it might offset the entire positional gain.

Chris: Tyler Wade could be the Yankees opening day 2nd baseman! That was less of a question than a statement. He reminds me a lot of Brett Gardner, is that a fair comp?
Keith Law: I don’t see that. I like Wade, but he’s not similar to Gardner.

Zach: Keith: long-time reader, first time ask-er. Can Nick Senzel handle the switch to 2B defensively? I assume if so, then this raises his profile as his bat plays up there.
Keith Law: The positional adjustment for 2b isn’t much different, if at all, than that for 3b, I think, so while I believe he’ll be able to handle 2b, it probably doesn’t change his value right now.

Mike B: This may need too detailed an answer for a chat, but I had a question about the overall effect of “tanking.” While tanking may be the best option for a team that cant compete, can we reach the point where too many teams see tanking as the best option and it begins to turn off fans? The optimal course of action for a team, may hurt the league as a whole if too many teams see that as the best option. Do you think we are close to that point?
Keith Law: No, but I think we are reaching the point where the media have convinced a lot of fans that tanking is more prevalent in baseball than it actually is.

Johnny B. Savage: Griffin Canning was reportedly sitting 94-96 yesterday in a three inning stint. *IF* this is true, could be go from a 4/5 to a 3/4 in the future?
Keith Law: No, because I doubt he can hold that velocity as a starter and stay healthy, given what teams disliked about his medicals before the draft.

Jr: I think state funded elections (no outside contributions), and drawing districts with a bipartisan panel to represent districts fairly would fix most of the problems in this country – right or wrong?
Keith Law: Who funds those elections? (I mean, taxpayers do, but they won’t like it.) And who decides how much each candidate gets?

Adam B: Would you move Suarez back to SS and keep Senzel playing 3rd?
Keith Law: Yes, but that ship appears to have sailed.

Dan410: On a scale of 1 to Trump, how stupid is Liriano starting instead of Daniel Norris?
Keith Law: I’m OK with starting Norris in the bullpen for now, but he should end the year with 20+ starts.

Darrell: Is Jordan Hicks projected to be a starter?
Keith Law: He has the potential to be a very good starter. He could also never find enough command for that.

Chloe: What are your thoughts on the WBC? I love it but it seems like a number of participants had crummy years afterward. When else could it be played that might have less of a negative impact? A week off for the All-Star break and a quick tournament?
Keith Law: I would much prefer that All-Star Break WBC schedule to the current one, which is also too spread out. I do like the event for global marketing; the US audience doesn’t care, but they also don’t matter as much because baseball is already popular here.

Rob: What are your thoughts on FIREPOWER? I never would have guessed that a bunch of guys nearing 70 could put out a metal album that good from beginning to end.
Keith Law: Oh, God, no, I thought it was incredibly disappointing. After that lead single it’s just so tame.

ScottyD in Snowy Malvern, PA: Concerning Houston’s OF uberprospect Kyle Tucker – is a mid-2018 ETA too early?
Keith Law: No, I think on merit he’d probably make the club right now, so late June is about right.

John: Thanks for the chat Keith! Joey Lucchesi and Eric Lauer have both put up solid numbers this spring, do you see either progressing past a 4/5 starter ceiling, or are their numbers due to the level of competition faced in ST?
Keith Law: Probably both back-end starters, yes. Again, ST stats are not useful.

BRIAN: Thanks for the chats! They are the highlight of my week. Boring “salary” question. My understanding is the salary cap amount is the AAV of the total contract. So why wouldnt a team (Yankees/Dodgers/Sox) up against the cap sign a player (example of Moustakis earlier this off season) for 5 years – $32million – with $20m first season and 3 miliion in years 2-5… with an opt out after year one. The salary cap hit is only 6 million this year (with the rest put over to the following year following the inevitable opt out — and after a year of getting “under” the cap)? Is this not allowed??
Keith Law: No, I believe that is not allowed. And probably a good way to get fined, too.

DR: Matt Olson’s ratio of HR to doubles (24:2 in the bigs) has to normalize, right? Is he more or less a Chris/Khris Davis clone (guy that hits many homers, low average, with the occasional high contact season where he’s an all star)?
Keith Law: I don’t think that high contact season is in there. Has years where he’s an average regular, and years where he’s not. Chris Davis is a fair comp, but Olson is less athletic and won’t add value on defense.

Sally fan: Any minor league teams that you are looking forward to seeing this upcoming season? Based on presumed rosters, of course
Keith Law: I won’t look at that until camp breaks, sorry. No point in guessing now.

Marlon Bundo: Am I crazy for thinking Soroka can develop into 1/2? How do you account for maturity when evaluating a pitcher like him who is maximizing his stuff at an early age?
Keith Law: Crazy, no, but I disagree. If he’s that mature right now, then you’re saying he has less growth potential.

Mountain Man: Read an interview that the Nats are starting Kieboom and Soto back in Hagerstown to start the season. That seems a little conservative to me…they should be up in Potomac rather quickly, right?
Keith Law: Potomac’s field is kind of terrible. They skipped Harper over that level entirely because the outfield conditions were so poor.

Zach: What does Blake Rutherford have to do to get himself back on the prospect/top 100 radar? Is it as simple as….hit?
Keith Law: Not just hit, but have the ball actually go somewhere when he hits.

Sean: Mitch Haniger or Mex Kepler: who has the bigger year offensively?
Keith Law: One of them is in my breakouts column. I hope I picked the right one.

Ryan: What would you have done differently if you were Alderson this offseason? Not everything, but are there a couple of different avenues you would have explored/
Keith Law: Certainly would not have signed Gonzalez for anything. If they wanted another starter, they should have signed Lynn rather than Vargas, given what those two guys signed for.

Evan: Is a .360 OBP with 20 HR unattainable for Jeimer Candelario? Does putting him in the two hole make sense for Detroit?
Keith Law: I’m taking the under on that OBP.

Dan410: Do you think Flaherty was ready to break camp in the rotation? Or does he need some more seasoning in Triple-A?
Keith Law: I’m fine with the demotion, but also think he can be a fine fifth starter right now.

Chris: It looks like Marco Gonzales is finally getting back from TJ. What kind of starter do you think he can be for the Mariners?
Keith Law: The last I’d heard on him his stuff was still down this spring.

JK: You often point out that small sample sizes don’t change your perspective on a player. Some of the June draftees shot up the rankings with a small sample post signing (Adell, Hiura). What’s the difference?
Keith Law: There is no difference. The change in ranking has little to nothing to do with performances. After they sign, they’re seen by new sets of scouts and executives, and more information (e.g., Hiura didn’t need/have TJ) becomes available.

Brad: What do you think of Dipoto’s approach of dealing high-ceiling, younger minor league players for higher-floor, closer to MLB-ready players?
Keith Law: Wouldn’t be my personal approach.

The Bilmo: I always prefer to see the film before reading the book. I do’t have to compare the film to the production in my head. You?
Keith Law: Other way around. Book first. Book is nearly always better anyway.

Matt: Hey Keith. What are your thoughts on Keibert Ruiz what does he project for longterm?
Keith Law: If he stays at C, he’s a potential star. Fair chance he hits his way off the position or isn’t good enough back there to be a regular. I feel pretty confident he’s a regular somewhere.

Rhys: As of this moment, in what order would you rank Mize/McClanahan/Rollison/Singer?
Keith Law: Mize, McClanahan, Rolison, several other college starters, Singer.
Keith Law: The Singer thing confuses the hell out of me.

Thaddeus: I’ve heard you mention your favorite thing in the Anova is chicken thighs at 4-5 hours if I remember correctly. What do you use as the temp? And what do you do after? Hard sear in a cast iron or a grill or something else?
Keith Law: 165 for 5 hours, chill, hard sear in a carbon steel or cast iron skillet. If you chill them, the juices in the bag will congeal and you can easily peel that off to form the base for a sauce.

Guy: Any good solo game recommendations?
Keith Law: Friday. Onirim. Pretty much any coop game, like Pandemic. I’ve played Agricola’s solo mode on the app; I think all of Rosenberg’s games offer a solo option (and Fields of Arle is really a solo game), but the setup is a bit long for playing by yourself.

steve: Looks like the Sox are going to carry Swihart on the opening day roster, but not use him at catcher. He appears headed for utility role but has never played infield and limited time in OF. How do you see this working out?
Keith Law: I’m hoping he just gets regular ABs and hits again like he did before he was first called up.

Larry: I heard the Tigers are interviewing HS players to see if they will sign at 1-1 for a steep discount. Do you think that is a wise strategy for this draft?
Keith Law: They are exploring options, but hardly committed in any way to doing this. The Dbacks did the same, and even offered steep discounts to a few players (Garrett Whitley was one), but ended up taking one of the consensus top players.

Richard: Will we ever see pitchers like Greg Maddux return? The ones who relied on control, changing speeds. Instead of simply trying to blow away hitters and blowing out arms along the way.
Keith Law: They’re not gone. Kyle Hendricks is certainly in that mold – strike thrower who gets groundballs – as is Keuchel. Neither throws hard, both live on the bottom of the zone.

Chris: Can Nimmo play a league average defensive CF? Or is he just bad out there?
Keith Law: Average, maybe. I doubt more.

Avery: Is this year the year for Addison Russell? Or is becoming this is who he is? I know he’s only 24 but he has a career .312 OBP in the bigs….I would have more likely guessed that to be his BA.
Keith Law: Shoulder injury last year; not sure if that was all or part of his decline, or not at all, but I think you have to consider the possibility it restricted him.

Lark11: Given the organization’s historical difficulty in developing impact starting pitching, shouldn’t the Reds be overhauling how it scouts and develops pitchers? Do you view Hunter Greene as having increased injury/development risk because he was drafted by the Reds?
Keith Law: I do not, and I don’t think they’ve had chronic issues with scouting and developing pitchers in recent years.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: O’s Fans: With Cobb, we have a good rotation now!
Reality is?
Keith Law: With Cobb, you have two good starters now.

Chris Mays: Do you have a take on Acuña being sent down? It seems to me that if there was truly nothing wrong with it, then AA could tell the truth about why he was sent down.
Keith Law: You can’t send down a player to manipulate service time. The player & union will file a grievance, they’ll win, and he’ll get the service time anyway. So you have to lie. They did the right thing for the team and the wrong thing for the sport. He’ll be back in mid-April.

wade: how old do you think pujols is?
Keith Law: I think he’s older than he claims to be. It would fit the last few years of his career, certainly.

Stephanie: Do you see Mateo becoming a 15HR/30 steals CF by 2019?
Keith Law: 15 HR might be high; 30 steals is almost certainly low.

Peeeeete: How would you predict the Cubs starters to finish in WAR? Q-Darvish-Lester-Hendricks-Chatwood?
Keith Law: Q, Yu, Hendricks, Lester, Chatwood.

Seany: Follow up on Ohtani- there was probably a behind closed doors agreement that he wouldn’t be sent to AAA & would DH. Let’s say he flops at hitting and they go back on their word and decide to abandon it… Does Ohtani have the option to return to NPB even though the Ham fighters were paid $20mm for him?
Keith Law: I suppose he could just walk away, but that’s not going to happen. My guess, entirely my own speculation, is that they’ll let him fail at DH and hope he realizes he needs to pitch full-time.

Dan410: Agree or disagree with the Rangers’ decision to keep Profar strictly in the infield? Thought it was weird since LF is the job that’s totally wide open. (I also like how Profar>Odor has not even been a discussion)
Keith Law: I hadn’t seen or heard that; I thought the plan was for him to be a bench player who gets ABs wherever. I love the kid but he has to produce now to earn regular playing time. If he has a solid April and looks like he did pre-injury or even right when he came back, they can always give him time in LF.

Andrew: Outside of Tatis, which of the Padres’ prospects has impressed most in Spring Training?
Keith Law: I had two lengthy posts on their prospects last week.

Poor Man Quisenberry: Have you seen Nander de Sedas from Montverde Academy HS. What are your thoughts on him?
Keith Law: True story: I was supposed to see him today, about five minutes from now. Instead I am in my kitchen watching snow come down at about an inch an hour, waiting to fire up the snowblower.

Matt S: Hey Keith what are your thoughts on Blaze Jordan and when do you as a scout start to turn your attention to him?
Keith Law: Christ. I had to look this up – he’s 15? A 2021 kid? Call me in two years.

RSO: Do you think acquiring Drury and Walker makes Andujar and Torres more expendable in a deal for say, Chris Archer, Michael Fulmer or another top flight starter?
Keith Law: That may be their plan, but I don’t think so, especially not for Torres.

SPG: You ever been to Venice, Rome, or Paris? Wife & I are going for the first time next month and are in dire need of restaurant recommendations.
Keith Law: I have, but nearly 20 years ago.

mike sixel: Nick Gordon….future second basemam? SS in MN this year, in about 4-6 weeks? SS in the future? Traded?
Keith Law: I believe he can play SS, but they seem to view him internally as a 2b.

Kevin S.: With all the talk about how pitiful minor league salaries are, could a team *choose* to pay them more than the current scale? A draftee or a IFA might be willing to take a smaller bonus if he knew he would be making $40,000/year instead of $8,000/year.
Keith Law: I don’t know if anything prohibits spending more on non-40 man salaries – we had some negotiating room with them back when I was with the Jays and did a few of those phone calls, boy, was that ever fun – but if you promised it before the draft to a player you’d violate the rules. Atlanta was accused of doing this with Drew Waters, allegedly offering him a car in exchange for taking less in his bonus. (The car, if it was ever promised, never materialized.)

RSO: RAB boldly predicted that Aaron Hicks could have a 7+WAR. Crazy or realistic?
Keith Law: That seems high but I’m also a longtime believer in his ability and a 5 WAR season seems entirely reasonable if he can just stay healthy.

Ryan: if nimmo can stay healthy, is he capable of putting up good numbers?
Keith Law: He can be very useful vs RHP.

Chris: Have you noticed any players getting draft helium yet this early in the season?
Keith Law: Grayson Rodriguez in Texas is a big name right now, mid-90s FB from a prep RHP. Noah Naylor was juuust outside my top 30 a month ago, but I think if the draft were today he’d go top 20. Gunnar Hoglund has cleaned up his delivery somewhat so he’s not so cross-body and he’s somewhere in day one at least. Still a lot of HS kids who haven’t started playing yet, though.

Chris: If (big if…) Hunter Harvey can stay healthy, what do you see as a logical outcome? Number 2 starter?
Keith Law: Yes, but he’s yet to have one calendar year in pro ball without an injury.

mike sixel: Would you consider giving up baseball if they succeed in getting Congress to pass a law allowing them to continue screwing over minor league players? What would ownership have to do to get you to stop watching, or decrease?
Keith Law: Giving up, no. I’ll just continue to advocate for players.

Brad: Is there any concern with sous vide and plastic safety (BPA/phthalates/etc.)?
Keith Law: No, because I’m not a chemophobe.

Aaron, Texas: KLAW, just started watching The Wire, and Season 2 was a slight drag. Was that the worst season?
Keith Law: I think S5 was the worst, as it felt very rushed.

Tom from Newark, DE: Keith, will the Blue Rocks have anyone that’ll make it worth me making the 10 minute drive up I-95 to see?
Keith Law: I assume Khalil Lee will be here, at least, although I don’t know that for sure. He’d be worth it – arguably their #1 prospect. Viloria should get here at some point too.

Dave: Do the Yankees seem to be a little overhyped coming into the season? Not that they won’t be good, but aside from Bird is there any regular you’d take even-money being better than last year, health issues excepted?
Keith Law: I talked about this with Joe and Mike on the Poscast that went up today – you can paint a realistic scenario that has them worse than last year, without stretching your logic at all. The rotation seems very volatile to me, in health and performance, and I believe Mike pointed out that nobody important got hurt last year.

MJ: What kind of line do you think Colin Moran could put up this year? Do you believe the swing changes he made in the minors last year will allow him to hit 25-30 HRs in the majors?
Keith Law: I think he’s a 20 HR guy with a regular baseball. With this juiced ball, everyone’s a 30 HR guy.

Josh: Hi Keith, Curious if you ever talk to players you’re scouting, majors or otherwise, when you go on your scouting trips…or if you’d even be allowed. Thanks!
Keith Law: I am allowed but prefer to talk to them afterwards if need be. They don’t really even need to know I’m there. Having 40 or 50 scouts there is pressure enough.

Andrew: I’m probably going to get killed for this by you and your fellow readers but weed isn’t harmless. Weed is what triggered my friend’s manic episode (already had been diagnosed with Bipolar disorder)and why I can’t never know what it’s like to smoke it as I also have bipolar disorder.
Keith Law: Marijuana can trigger short-term psychosis in some people … but it’s still harmless for the majority of folks.

Luis Castillo: Based on Fangraphs pitch values, it seems like I found a third pitch in my slider, no?
Keith Law: No.

Larry: What is the difference between Ohtani and Acuna? Both players could theoretically be held down for extra service time. Shouldn’t Acuna be ticked about the manipulation for his clock and the assumption that Ohtani will not face the same issue?
Keith Law: The Angels are trying to win this year and Ohtani would, in theory, be part of that.

Kak: Is Sheldon neuse the real deal for the As?
Keith Law: I think he’s a very good player, not a shortstop at all, maybe a great 2b/3b/lf type, chance for a regular. Good feel to hit, very good instincts, makes up for limited tools.

Jimmy : Astros farm system top 5?
Keith Law: No. I ranked systems back in January and they were 13th.

Chris: How nuts are the Os for paying (above?) full freight on Cobb on March 20th?
Keith Law: I do not believe they paid at or above full freight.

Kak: What are your thoughts on piscotty this season?
Keith Law: I’m rooting for him. I do think last year was an outlier and that he’ll hit for more average this year; the park switch hurts his power, but I believe everything else will improve.

Chuck: If you’re the A’s, do you bring up Puk in April or May?
Keith Law: I’d rather have him in the big leagues on April 20th than in the PCL.

Corey: tanking isn’t as prevalent as the media makes it seem but how many teams in your estimation are pursuing a tank or tank-adjacent strategy this season ?
Keith Law: Are the Padres tanking if they signed Hosmer to that silly deal? The Phillies with Arrieta? The Marlins, yes, for sure. I don’t think the Rays are tanking, per se, but if you want to argue they’re tank-adjacent I’ll concede the point. The Tigers are way out. The A’s, probably. That’s 4-6 teams. It’s not 10.

James: Draft – could you see MLB go to a draft lottery to try to lessen the advantage of all out tanking?
Keith Law: I could see that, but I don’t believe it’ll solve the issue. Paying minor leaguers and 0-2 players more would do so.

TK: My wife and I are about to strat playing SeaFall with some friends. I can’t remember: did you ever do a full review of it?
Keith Law: I did not. Really liked the concept, but didn’t finish the full play, and I know there was concern that whoever got the lead early would end up winning.

Slick Rick Hahn: Anything new on Lou Rob? I know you were the “low guy” on him when the Sox signed him, just wondering if your opinion has changed at all. Obviously, being hurt now can’t help.
Keith Law: I was supposed to see him two days after he got hurt. I’ll go see him when he’s in Kannapolis or wherever they start him.

Jonathan: Is Shane McClanahan the current favorite for top pick in this year’s draft?
Keith Law: No. I don’t think there’s a favorite, certainly nobody with more than a 40% chance. Mize probably has the best odds of anyone, but that still doesn’t make him the favorite, IMO.

Sean: If Potomac’s field is so bad, why play there?
Keith Law: They’ve been trying to get a new stadium in NoVA for a few years.

Andrew T: If you were GM of Marlins would you have handled situation differently?
Keith Law: That was an ownership call – dump salary, take less in return.

mets homer: realistic expectations on Marcos Molina? Was a top tier prospect before TJ…. still a rotation piece in the future?
Keith Law: Was not a top tier prospect before, and is probably a reliever.

Jared: As a Brewer fan, I love what Stearns has done so far. I also like the Cain and Yelich acquisitions. With that said, doesn’t it seem that the Brewers’ roster is poorly constructed this year?
Keith Law: I think they need another starter from outside the org.

JR: Did you ever get around to watching Man in High Castle on Amazon? I recently read and really enjoyed the book and tried to give the show a go. I made it one episode. Snooze fest. Was bummed because I thought a show expanding on that world had so much potential.
Keith Law: Same. One episode, never went back. Great look and setting, but whoa boy, was that slow.

John: Klaw: any thoughts on this guy Jordan Peterson? Several of my buddies are into him now, but I’ve read he’s big with the alt-right so I’m hesitant to even spend any time listening to him.
Keith Law: Yeah, he’s trash, and probably dangerous.

mike sixel: 7 wonders app is great, and the AI are strong.
Keith Law: Agreed. Just bought the Leaders in-app expansion yesterday.

Matt: Did you hear what’s going in PA? The GOP is so pissed the SC won’t allow gerrymandering so they are going to impeach 4 of the 5 liberal judges.
Keith Law: Yep. I’m not a PA resident, but I would be beyond furious to see this. The legislators gerrymandered the heck out of the state to gain control, and now are claiming that the justices are the ones subverting the will of the voters.

Paul at the Library: Is Winker still likely to overperform Nimmo this year, even with Nimmo seemingly having a job and the Reds currently flirting with a four man outfield?
Keith Law: On a rate basis, yes.

Kyle : Rodon – his career over?
Keith Law: That’s rather dramatic.

Ken: Saw you liked Frank Turner. Big fan myself. Favorite song?
Keith Law: Recovery.

Ray: Spent a few days in Tempe last weekend. Do you ever eat ballpark food out there? There’s a Some Burros tent in the outfield with great carne asada tacos. Best ballpark food I’ve had in awhile, not that ballpark food is that good in general.
Keith Law: I avoid ballpark food whenever possible.

Rob: Do you have a mystery novel to recommend
Keith Law: I’m a fan of Agatha Christie, Dorothy Sayers, & Rex Stout.

Danny from Boston: Bigger upside Kyle Tucker or Willie Calhoun?
Keith Law: Really? Tucker.

JJ: Is Tommy Pham a one-hit wonder, or a late bloomer?
Keith Law: Late bloomer. Had to get healthy and get a solution for his eye condition.

Jack: I get why you wouldn’t scout Blaze Jordan now, but is it valuable for MLB teams to start tracking kids who are freshmen and sophomores?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. I think it’s a waste of resources.

Daniel: Hosmer told fangraphs he’s looked into launch angle and worked JD Martinez’ offseason hitting coach. Assuming he makes the conscious effort, does joining the fly ball revolution give Hosmer a better chance of repeating his 4 WAR season going forward?
Keith Law: Sure. But a lot of players have tried this without getting better results, and I don’t think anyone has figured out which players can pull it off and which ones can’t. FWIW, Hosmer did show plus power as an amateur.

Buck: Don’t you think the Angels sent an army of investigators to the DR to try and uncover any evidence that Pujols is older than he claims? I’d be doing everything possible to claim his albatross contract was based on a lie and get it cancelled in court.
Keith Law: No, I don’t think they did that, nor would they likely be able to do so since they had no problem accepting his age – which was also accepted by the US government when he became a citizen in 2007 – when they signed the deal.

RSO: Re the weed comment: basically any substance can be harmful to people with certain conditions. Water can be harmful to someone who is hyponatremic.
Keith Law: Exactly. Weed is not like cocaine or meth. Marijuana should be decriminalized.

Jake: DO NOT CONGRATULATE
Keith Law: every time I saw that yesterday I kept thinking “DONNA MARTIN GRADUATES” and realized 2/3 of my readers wouldn’t get the joke.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week and there will not be a chat next week due to travel (unless there is another nor’easter … no thanks, i’ve had enough already). Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions. Check out my book Smart Baseball, now out in paperback with a new afterword for 2018!

New board game review at Paste of the light, fast-moving card game Smile; and new Insider post looking at who the top rookies might be for 2018.

Keith Law: So numb, can’t even react. Klawchat.

What’s in a name?: Did you know there was never a major league baseball player with the first name of Tyler before 1993? Now there have been about 40. The Yanks set a new record with 4 Tylers last year. There were no Brandons before 2000; now there have been about 50. The 2012 A’s had FIVE.
Keith Law: I believe in 2013 we had four players in the first round or so named Hunter. We gave our daughter a name that had never appeared on any of those top 100 baby names list to avoid something like this (plus we loved the name we gave her anyway).

Joseph: I looked forward to these every week. I heard reports that Vlad Guerrero Jr is THICC right now (not in a bad way). But it seems more likely he moves from 3B to 1B. What percentages of likelihood would you put on it?
Keith Law: I’m not certain you have to move him to 1b; he’s a big boy, but not unathletic, and maybe he could stand in an outfield corner. Probably 40/60 on him staying at third.

Jo-Nathan: Knowing how you feel about Tim Tebow, what were your thoughts on Michael Jordan as a ‘prospect’ in 94?
Keith Law: I was 20 and busy finishing my senior thesis. I really had no idea at the time whether it was plausible or a publicity stunt or something to do with gambling.

addoeh: Who signs first; Jake Arrieta or Kirk Cousins?
Keith Law: Did Arrieta solicit suggestions on social media?

One Klawwi Boi: You mentioned in chat weeks ago that Jo Adell has the highest ceiling of anyone in the 2018 draft. If he has a productive year, does he vault into top 20 consideration going into 2019? Potentially higher? Is his ceiling a 65 FV?
Keith Law: I don’t love putting specific numbers like that ‘future value’ on players this young & far away. I think he has superstar upside, but also huge risk … early last spring I had scouts telling me they were questioning whether he could hit at all, talking about him on the mound, and then he hurt his arm but started making more/better contact. I do think his full-season debut will tell us a lot more about how advanced a hitter he is – whether he’s a Trout/Vlad Jr type who already has a good enough approach to race up the minors or will be more a level-by-level guy or is something even less than that (which I doubt, but it’s possible).

Hello: My friend wants me to ask you: “Is Rafael Devers going to be Baby Miggy?”
Keith Law: I wouldn’t put that on any prospect.

Romo: If you were in a front office, would you have removed Seth Romero from your draft board?
Keith Law: I would have, given what we know about his behavior, his medicals, and his delivery. It is a legit plus-plus changeup, though, and above-average velocity, from the left side. I understand why he went where he did, but there are risks I’ll stomach and some I won’t.

Eric: I don’t expect you to know the Vegas win totals off the top of your head, but are there any teams projected for the bottom half of baseball that you could see surprising people this year if a couple dominoes fall the right way?
Keith Law: I’ll look at that later this month. Right now I’ve been more focused on draft stuff.

Faria: Does Faria have a future as a starter? If so, what’s his ceiling, #4?
Keith Law: Yes. League-average sort of upside.

Garrett: It’ll be at least 2020 before Walker Buehler pitches 200 innings, right?
Keith Law: I’ll put 50/50 odds on him never pitching 200 innings in a season.
Keith Law: And that’s not a criticism; I think he’s potentially elite, but unlikely to handle what is now a top-end workload.

Joseph: I’m making Pastrami for St Paddy’s day and I’ve never done it before (though I’ve smoked brisket half a dozen times). Was wondering if you had any advice for me and wish me luck!
Keith Law: I have never made brisket in any form, sorry. Even when I did eat beef, the time required & the quantity produced made it a poor investment.

Mike: What’s the deal with Dayton Moore about dragging the Royals into his uber-conservative social stances? First the Royals teamed with an anti-abortion group as a marketing partner (and declined to let Planned Parenthood participate in a similar marketing program), and now the Royals are hosting anti-porn workshops for their players. Moore can believe whatever he wants and support whatever social cause he feels best represents his views. But to drag the Royals into it from an official (i.e., team-sanctioned) POV….Huh???
Keith Law: I had the same thought last night. He is absolutely entitled to his personal views and to conduct himself in a manner consistent with them. This anti-porn thing is a bad joke, though; the individual and societal effects of pornography have been researched for decades, and no link has been found between pornography viewing or availability and things like sexual assault rates. (Porn may actually reduce such rates, although I think the relationship is weak.) You don’t like porn? Absolutely fine. But what the Royals are doing here and with their anti-abortion partners is bringing religion into a secular work place, and I would hope a Royals player would exercise his rights and fight back.

Jay: Would you give Andujar the starting job at third?
Keith Law: Yes, although I think they’ll give it to Drury now and aim to have Andujar up by midyear.

Jay: Kannapolis or Winston-Salem – where would you start Robert out?
Keith Law: I hope to see him this weekend, at which point I may have a different answer, but my gut right now is Kannapolis. Easy to move him up if he overwhelms the league; hard to demote a guy this high-profile.

TJ: Do you think that Moustakas is just netter off waiting until June once the comp pick goes? He doesn’t seem to have a lot to gain by signing a short term deal
Keith Law: Yes.

Andrew: Keith – Thanks for the time, always enjoy the chats. Quick question with a little broader scope – do have any thoughts or heard anything on the grapevine to explain the Yankees improvement in player development over the last ~5 years?
Keith Law: They’ve shifted their draft philosophy somewhat, especially with higher picks; they’ve changed how they develop pitchers, including working with weighted balls, which has led to a lot of guys gaining velocity; and they’ve been more focused on getting and retaining prospects in trades.

Rodney: Hi Keith, thanks for doing these chats! The biggest knock against Matt Thaiss seems to be the lack of power he’s shown. Do his 2 home runs in 22 spring training PA signal anything, or is typical spring training stats noise?
Keith Law: Everything in spring training stats is noise. It’s even worse in Arizona because the entire league tends to favor home run production.

Nick: Andrew Vaughn is off to a great start. How does his bat compare to the 1B-only bats in the 2018 class like Beer and Baker?
Keith Law: Beer isn’t 1B only. I don’t think Vaughn or Baker is a first rounder.

Dingus McGee: I hear a lot about spring training stats don’t mean much, if anything, but what do teams/scouts/those in the know look at during March games?
Keith Law: You can still look at players to see, from the seats or in Trackman data, if something tangible has changed. A new delivery, a reduced spin rate, a different launch angle, a new pitch, more velocity … those are real changes that can impact this season’s performance, but the tiny samples and inconsistent competition of spring training makes those stats useless.

JJ: Ohtani’s a virtual lock to be chosen the AL ROY, but who’s going to win it in the NL?
Keith Law: He’s a lock? What if he only makes 20 starts? Or gets hurt? You can’t just gift anyone the award right now. I looked at the top impact rookies for this year in a short piece today for Insiders.

Buckner 86: Does Jose Berrios take another step forward this year? Can he be a top 20 SP? Thanks
Keith Law: Step forward, yes. Top 20 SP, no.

Matt: Was Odorizzi really worth nothing? Put up 5 WAR from ’15-’16. Hard to believe some SP-thirsty team couldn’t do better than Palacios?
Keith Law: I believe i mentioned in a previous chat that his back issues are a major concern.

Jaime: Isn’t it hypocritical of the alphabet news networks to demonize firearms when people who sit on their board also sit on the board of defense contractors, who are responsible for far worse across the globe?
Keith Law: That is the tu quoque fallacy.

Devon: The fiancee bought me a cool boardgame for Valentine’s Day called Hive. I searched for it on your site and it looks like you haven’t reviewed it. Have you not played it before or did it not make your top 100?
Keith Law: Haven’t played it.

CD: In regards to the top unsigned FA, do you think they lack any offers, or they just lack offers they like like and find acceptable?
Keith Law: My understanding is that they’re getting few offers and the ones they’re getting are way below expectations. At some point, though, don’t you just say, I’ll take the best one-year deal anyone will offer, and go from there?

BE: With the cost benefit of young players being so high, wouldn’t it make sense to better prepare them with better nutrition and instruction before they reach the majors?
Keith Law: Yes, but because that product isn’t visible now, more teams spend that money on the major-league roster.

Archie: Who do you see handling 1B for the Astros until Gurriel comes back?
Keith Law: Probably AJ Reed. Don’t think it’s a big deal for them, not something that will require trading for help.

Joey: Only 14 SP’s pitched 200 innings last year, while 32 did it in 2013. The days of 200 innings are slowly going away as pitching becomes more “specialized”.
Keith Law: I completely agree.

JR: I know it’s just spring training, but the reports on Matt Harvey have been positive so far. While the glory days of ’13 and ’15 are not coming back, is there any hope he can slightly above league average (or a tad better) this year?
Keith Law: I think it’s about health more than anything else with him … I don’t think it’s mental, or makeup related. He was worked extremely hard at UNC, and the Mets had to use him more than I think they would have liked back in 2015. I believe this is the outcome of those two factors.

Dante: Put on your Matt Klentak hat for a moment. Do you make the dive into possible contention in 2018 and sign Arrieta/Cobb/Lynn, or use this season to see if the plethora of in-house options will pan out?
Keith Law: I’d sign Cobb, but wouldn’t give up the draft pick and bonus pool money attached to it for either of the other two.

Brady: Finished Hyperion last week and I can see your issue with the non-ending, but I think I was less critical of it knowing there was a direct sequel out there that probably continues on with the pilgrims’ story. You seem to have liked the first book as much as I did, and I can’t wait to start The Fall of Hyperion. Did you ever continue on with the series?
Keith Law: Not yet. Eventually. I have just 4 Hugo winners left, and two of them are probably dreadful, so now I’m branching out to read other stuff by authors I like.

B: Would you consider Mitch Keller a candidate to be called up after the super 2 deadline, or is he more of a September cup of coffee kind of guy?
Keith Law: I think September. Hasn’t pitched in AAA yet, needs work on the changeup.

and “Peggy”: I know your philosophy is take BPA, but IMO DET needs to take a position player 1.1. If that is an overdraft, couldn’t they then go over slot in round 2? Is that at all a valid strategy? Thanks!
Keith Law: I don’t like that – if the best player is clearly a pitcher, you take the pitcher. Taking someone you believe is definitively not the best player available is a good way to get fired three years later when the guy you passed on turns out to be … the best player who was available.

Jon: Could Kingery be a Zobrist Utility guy or is he pretty much just a 2B? Thanks.
Keith Law: Could be 2b/cf. Highly doubt he’s a shortstop even on a part-time basis.

Harold: We are going to see a 6 man rotation as well as a 4 man rotation with a bullpen game in the 5th slot. Which would you prefer if you were constructing a team?
Keith Law: Probably the latter, but I’m a fan of experimentation in general.

xxx(yyy): any recs for party games that are better than Cards Against Humanity and work in situations where people may be consuming adult beverages?
Keith Law: One Night Ultimate Werewolf and other games of that ilk (Werewords combines it with a word-guessing game; Crossfire switches up the role assignments but plays out very similarly) are perfect for that.

James: With how strong the rest of AL west, at what point should the Rangers just decide it’s time to rebuild?
Keith Law: What would rebuilding entail for them? I’m not sure how much they really have that they would be willing to trade; Hamels, probably, if he’s healthy, and Andrus if we assume he’s going to opt out, but that’s probably it. They have a decent young offensive core in the majors, including a few players who should still have some growth ahead of them. But I don’t see a teardown here, unless you’re arguing they should trade guys like Mazara or Gallo now to try to get even younger and acquire some pitching (which I wouldn’t recommend).

What’s in a name?: I’ve often seen ARod, Josh Hamilton, & Griffey Jr. mentioned as the three most-talented #1 picks ever. Do you agree, & who was the most-talented amateur pitcher you ever saw?
Keith Law: Those three were all before my tenure in baseball, so I’m just relying on others’ opinions; the same community tells me Brien Taylor was one of the most talented amateur pitchers ever. The best amateur pitchers I’ve personally seen are Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole, and Brady Aiken.

Eric: Keith,

What kind of year can we expect from Andy Yerzy? Any worry of him being outshined by Daulton Varsho?
Keith Law: If Yerzy’s power surge was real, he’s a very valuable prospect because it looks like he’ll stay at catcher too. Not many true receivers with 20-HR potential out there. I don’t understand the second question … do players suffer for feeling “outshined?” I know Mark Arm isn’t a fan of that.

xxx(yyy): any faith in Rougie Odor turning things around and being closer to an average hitter in 2018-2019?
Keith Law: I’m quite bearish.

Zac: Who has the higher ceiling between Alex Faedo and Brady Singer
Keith Law: Faedo. I have a hard time seeing Singer as a 180 inning starter

Chris: What’s the best future alignment for Oakland’s infield? 2B Barreto, SS Mateo, UTIL Neuse work for you?
Keith Law: Neuse everyday 3b? I know they have Chapman, but I wouldn’t just stick Neuse in a part-time role when he might be capable of more.

Kenny: It seems like some teams may be kind of slightly be starting to put an emphasis on their hitters making more contact, even at the expense of a little power. Do you think the game has gotten a little too homer/strikeout heavy and that a team may be able to gain an advantage by putting the ball in play more than their opponents?
Keith Law: The payoff from adding power has exceeded the cost of reduced contact. Improved defensive positioning might be the main reason or at least a reason for the latter part of that. I don’t like the homer/strikeout heavy environment, but it is probably a rational strategy for most teams.

Ron: German ceiling?
Keith Law: Die Höchstgrenze.
Keith Law: (Seriously, I don’t know who you’re asking about.)

B: Would you consider Max Fried somewhat of a breakout guy this year? He was over his head in the majors, but I like his stuff.
Keith Law: I didn’t think he was over his head at all. He’s on the list today.

Levi: Tyler Glasnow with another erratic outing yesterday. I know it is just Spring training, but is there still any hope for him to be a reliable starter?
Keith Law: If you believe in the axiom about taller pitchers needing more time to get their coordination together for consistent deliveries, then yes, there is still hope. But the odds are declining.

Jackson: Fernando Tatis is looking good in all aspects of the game this spring. Is the best course of action to have he and Luis Urias play in AAA all year together and come up next year?
Keith Law: That’s the worst course of action because it moves someone off shortstop right now.

Paul: Can Joey Gallo become a .250+ hitter? Seems like everyone assumes that he’s a Mendoza-line guy, but he’s only 24, has gotten better each year, and doesn’t have a L/R split. I just keep thinking he’ll be a monster.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t rule that out at all. Gallo has made a ton of progress already at reducing his swings and misses in the zone and at laying off stuff out of the zone. When he was first drafted, the swing worked, but he’d swing too often and mistime a lot … but he’d get away with it because he’d hit a mistake into the next county. He’s actually cut down substantially since then.

Dan M. : You’ve said that Strahm should be in SD’s opening day rotation but do you think he will be?
Keith Law: It doesn’t seem like it right now, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he got 15-18 starts this year. It’s not like he’s behind the Nats’ front four.

Jack: I’m a nerd so I looked back at MLB drafts from 20-30 years ago and it’s shocking how many 1st rounders never made it. What do you think has happened in scouting to lead to more draft success in the last 5-10 years.
Keith Law: We’ve gone from ignoring a lot of stats to at least some teams paying attention to publicly available stats to using proprietary data and internal R&D efforts to evaluate players. Bobby Witt was the 3rd pick in the 1985 draft despite walking 78 guys in 96 innings his junior year at Oklahoma. That would never happen today. (He was in the majors less than a year later and walked 143 guys in 157.2 innings his rookie year. What the hell did they expect?)

Dougie Fresh: What do you expect from Rhys Hopkins?
Keith Law: I expect him to have a great season, probably All-Star caliber, that feels like a disappointment after the two months he had to end 2017. I would bet on under 40 homers rather than over. Still think he’ll be a 4-5 WAR guy, just not MVP worthy.

BD in DC: Are Lamonte Wade, and Brandon Lowe MLB regulars?
Keith Law: Neither.

Joey Joe Joe: Were you surprised by Brian Goodwin putting up a > .800 OPS last season?
Keith Law: Nothing should really be a surprise in 278 PA.

Zachary: Twins starting shortstop in 2021 is Jorge Polanco? Nick Gordon? Royce Lewis? Wander Javier? Yunior Severino? Or someone else?
Keith Law: I believe if you asked them, they’d say Lewis. I still have real doubts about him staying on the dirt; he has a LONG way to go, based on what I saw (and area scouts also saw) last spring.

Trea: J.D. Davis have a future in Houston? If he got a chance to play elsewhere, how good of a bat could he be?
Keith Law: Fringe regular for someone. Maybe ideally a platoon guy.

What’s in a name?: Yes, it’s spring training, but Billy McKinney has 4 HR. Considering his late-season power surge in 2017, if this is truly another half-grade or so in the power department, does he go back to being a fairly good prospect?
Keith Law: It’s spring training. I don’t even look at those stats.

Dan: I know we should ignore Spring Training stats, but in his last start Vince Velasquez was throwing almost exclusively 4-seamers in what seemed like an effort to concentrate on locating the pitch. If he has success doing so the rest of the spring, is that the kind of thing he can build on in the season?
Keith Law: That’s different from spring training stats and definitely something i’d pay attention to … although in VV’s case, I have always been more concerned about the fringy breaking ball than fastball command. Yes, it’s something he can build on, and it makes him better, but it doesn’t address his main pitching flaw, or the fact that he has yet to stay healthy for a full season.

Nick: Going to PHX next weekend to watch some baseball. Staying in the Encanto village area. Any good restaurant recs?
Keith Law: Search this site for all my recs, but you’re right by Pizzeria Bianco, Matt’s Big Breakfast, Forno 301, Giant Coffee, Tacos Chiwas, and, when it opens, Roland’s Market.

What’s in a name?: I think Ron meant Domingo German.
Keith Law: Solid reliever IMO. Outside chance to start, well below 50%.

Mick: Is there a non traditional baseball country out there ready to bust out w/ at least a few prospects in the next few years?
Keith Law: I’d bet on Brazil churning a few more kids out now that Pardinho has gotten paid and Gohara is in the majors. I know Uganda has become a youth baseball success story lately, and I’ve heard they may even produce some good JC or small college prospects in the short term. I will forever wonder why the Philippines hasn’t produced players; I know they had a long fallow period where the sport withered there, but it has a history in that country going back to when we took it from Spain in 1898.

Brett: I’ve heard rumors that your lawyers offered Stormy Daniels 3-months of free Insider and a Cinnamon Roll Recipe in exchange for silence of your 2012 affair. Those rumors true?
Keith Law: I never signed anything and I don’t know what you’re talking about.

Matt: Why do professional athletes get injured so much? Isn’t staying in shape the general idea? It seems odd we hear about guys pulling a hamstring running to first base.
Keith Law: You can’t be serious. How often in your life do you have to run like athletes run, going from a dead stop to full speed as quickly as possible, or throw like they throw?
Keith Law: (if you throw like I throoooow, then you’re hurt like every day…)

Prospect Expansion Pack: Who would you prefer – Jesus Luzardo or Luis Medina? Debate with a friend about ceiling and age.
Keith Law: Luzardo would have been close to the top 100 had I continued ranking guys, and would have been over Medina.

addoeh: Can Ian Happ be passable in a corner outfield spot?
Keith Law: I’d bet on more than passable. Maybe a soft average.

Stomper: Most Oakland fans seem pretty convinced Chapman and Olson are going to be all-star caliber players going forward. I’d like them to be….but maybe pump the brakes on half-season debuts a bit, right?
Keith Law: I doubt either is an All-Star caliber player. Solid regulars, maybe, more so Chapman (70 glove, 80 arm) than Olson (not those things).

Dan M. : Assuming Bobby Bradley doesn’t struggle in Triple-A, would it be wiser for Cleveland to bring him up? Or do you think Alonso is competent enough?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t project Bradley to outproduce Alonso this year.

Brad: Hey Keith. What do you think is the ceiling for Dane Dunning? Solid #3 if everything goes right or a above average 4?
Keith Law: The difference between a solid 3 and an above average 4 is probably just in the nomenclature. I do think you have the right idea, though; he’s not an ace, not someone who’ll likely be a top 50 starter in baseball, but should be a very solid league-average guy for a while.

Seth Romero: Apparently all I did was a few curfew violations. In college it was the weed picture and a teammate fight. I’m not actually a *bad* guy am I? What else have you heard?
Keith Law: There’s more that isn’t public. Remember he was suspended by U of H, reinstated, and lasted just a few weeks before slugging a teammate, after which he was kicked off the team permanently.

Manny: Which potential 1st rounder in June do you see as having the highest floor and which do you see getting to the majors the quickest?
Keith Law: I’m just getting started seeing players but with what I’ve heard so far I think Rolison might be the high-floor college starter everyone loves, and either Swaggerty or Conine the high-floor college bat.

B: Were you a fan of Chris Taylor when he was in the Mariners system? I remember there being a lot of questions about him staying on the dirt, but he looks great in CF.
Keith Law: He was fine at shortstop, but had no real power at all, just a high-contact guy who looked like he could play a few positions. Thought he was a big leaguer but not a regular.

Brett: Do you think Buxton continues his progression in 2018 and has a better year than 2017?
Keith Law: Maybe a small improvement, but even a repeat of 2017 would be great, given where he seemed to be last April or in mid-2016.

Tom: Do the effects of a juiced ball work for the pitcher as well in terms of increased velocity?
Keith Law: If the issue is the COR, then that would only matter on contact, not just from the act of throwing the ball.

Steve: I’m a Boomer with “big ears” & Always listen to KLaw music playlists. Even the AAA format terrestrial radio in NYC, WFUV, doesn’t play these artists/ tracks. How do I too listen to this roster of artists?
Keith Law: If you’re asking where I find these artists, I don’t have an answer to that. I look in lots of places.

PJ: Blake Snell not eligible for today’s article, but can we expect him on your Breakout list? You still see a future #2?
Keith Law: Breakouts list is next week.

Jim: You tweeted wrong link to the chat I believe
Keith Law: Yeah, whatever. If you haven’t figured out where the chats are after two years on this site, I can’t help you, man.

Kay: Trying to make more use of my sous vide setup – I know you mentioned duck breasts. Any other favorites?
Keith Law: Chicken thighs. Pork chops. I hear it’s great for steak, and I would assume brisket and short rib too, although I don’t eat those things. I have tried it for sausages, but when I went to brown them they overcooked.

Matty: Any chance D Bundy hit’s his previous ace ceiling, or has he simply been worked too hard to get his stuff back?
Keith Law: Worked too hard, still has damage in the shoulder, and Buck is determined to squeeze every last drop of blood from him (and Hunter Harvey, 53 pitches in 2 innings the other day, WTF).

Jake: Should SF start the season with a Blanco/Jackson platoon, or should they put Duggar’s superior glove in CF and see on the fly how he will be able to handle MLB pitching?
Keith Law: I’d play Duggar. If he’s healthy, it’s probably time – he’s either ready now or he’s probably never going to be a regular.

mickey: hey, keith – always enjoy your work. just curious: do your employers mandate that you have to have a social media presence?
Keith Law: I don’t think they do. I was on Facebook and Twitter long before this became a conversation, though.

Nathan: Hey Keith, love your work. Why couldn’t the Pirates get Bueller signed out of high school? Demands to high? I remember him being pretty highly rated and it seems like he would’ve been someone they would have gone after.
Keith Law: They made a good run at him, but there are two things to bear in mind. One is that he was very slight back then, and everyone was concerned about his durability. The other is that he didn’t throw this hard until after TJ. Even as a sophomore on the Cape, he was 92-95. He wasn’t throwing that hard in HS. And if you can find anyone who projected him back at age 18 to be bumping 100 at age 23, I’d love to hear from him.

PJ: Are you bullish on Jorge Alfaro? I know he made your top 100, but just curious if you think there’s still the big bat potential that people saw a few years ago.
Keith Law: Huge power. If he ever gets to a .300 OBP, it’ll be a victory. But 20+ homers with that arm and even average receiving would make him a regular. I know the new staff in Philly has been happy with his progress receiving this spring.

Ted: Which of top ChiSox pitching prospects will be in 2020 rotation? Any likely to be #1 or #2 on that staff? Or is that more likely someone already up like Giolito or Lopez.
Keith Law: Kopech is the mostly likely #1 in that system.

Ed: Could Nolan Gorman end up the best player in this draft? I am hoping he falls to Padres at 7 but doubt he’ll make it there
Keith Law: He could, yes. List of guys who could be that is probably still 8-10 deep, though. I’ll see him next week, but Liberatore is on spring break and I won’t see him till later this month.

Joe: What were your impressions of Pentecost before the draft and do you think he can still catch?
Keith Law: Didn’t see power, questioned his durability (he didn’t catch every day in college), had some swing questions too. I’ve all but given up on him.

Mitch: I didn’t see Kingery on your MLB impact list. Do you think he won’t get a shot this year or something else?
Keith Law: They still have Cesar Hernandez.

Jason: Is Corey Ray gonna make it in the majors? Why has his stock sunk so much after one bad year?
Keith Law: Poor performance that may have been related to the lack of any kind of stride or trigger last year. He’s definitely gone backwards since he was drafted. Also had the meniscus tear that cost him his first offseason and some of spring training but I don’t know if that was really a factor.

Lawrence: I am all for equality in all walks of life. Is it sexist (as some students at Portland State would assert) to comment that men are genetically inclined to be taller and larger framed than women?
Keith Law: I don’t get the Portland State reference, but if you’re talking averages, then that’s just a fact. If this is about, say, whether a woman could play pro baseball, there are certainly women tall enough and strong enough to do so, if they were allowed to play it from a young enougha ge.

addoeh: How many people won’t read the editor’s note in your most recent article?
Keith Law: No one reads those notes. I didn’t even see it until you mentioned it. I had to cut that article short because we had no power in the house for three days and I was worried we’d lose it again yesterday (we didn’t, although we got 8″ of snow).

Larry: What kind of feedback have you received on Brice Turang? Is he swinging the bat better than he did in the fall?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard that.

Brian: Does Arrieta to the Padres make sense? He’s gotta be dropping his asking price. 4/$80mil?
Keith Law: Hosmer to the Padres didn’t make sense. Signing a 32-year-old starter makes even less.

UK Nick: The Reds are kidding themselves with this Senzel at short business, right? I get that they can’t add another zero bat like Peraza if they play Hamilton in CF, but this is likely to do more ha harm than good to their best asset, right?
Keith Law: I don’t really get it; Suarez is a shortstop by trade. Move him there.

Dave: You still a Joe Rizzo guy, or no?
Keith Law: Was I ever?

JP: Are you posting standings/awards predictions before the season?
Keith Law: I do this every year.

Stan: Do you see Turang or de Sedas being the better pro SS?
Keith Law: I think de Sedas. Should see both this month.

JP: Have you ever filled out a March Madness bracket?
Keith Law: When I was with the Jays I did, but I wouldn’t say I knew anything or put any thought into it. Going to a college that isn’t big in athletics (I missed our hockey championship by two years) really affects your interest level in such things, I think.

Tim: I’m sure I’ve read that you don’t play fantasy baseball is that a dislike of it or is it a free time issue?
Keith Law: I do not play it. Some is dislike, some is incompatibility with the job, and some is that I won’t spend free time on anything that is too close to ‘work’ for me. I have lots of great hobbies that have nothing to do with baseball. I intend to keep it that way, for my own sanity.

Bob: If you eat yogurt and granola for lunch, what do you eat for breakfast?
Keith Law: Cereal, usually. It’s one of the only packaged foods I eat.

Billy Bob: Is Judge gonna get screwed by FA? Unless my math is wrong, the Yankees control him til he’s 32. Let’s say he averages 40 HR’s til then. That means he’ll have 300ish HR’s. What team is gonna want to offer him a huge deal knowing he’s 6’7″ and likely to decline rather quickly once he’s past his prime?
Keith Law: Possibly, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Yanks locked him up to a long-term deal that kept him there through his age-34 season or so. I think he’ll be a FA after his age-31 season, which is problematic but would likely still be early enough to get him something in the 3-4 year range … at least, before this year’s market crash.

Nats fan 2018: Do you think Victor Robles sees valuable playing time in the Nats OF this season? What do they do with Taylor then?
Keith Law: Robles is going to be better than Taylor, and maybe he already is. Plus you’re assuming Eaton is healthy – he hasn’t been in a game yet, I think.

Tom C: Would Arrieta to LAA make any sense? Um, maybe not 4 years though?
Keith Law: It would make some sense, although I would say the Angels signing any starter – Cobb comes to mind – would make sense.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week … thank you all, as always, for showing up, for reading, for submitting questions, and for buying Smart Baseball, which comes out in paperback on Tuesday (March 13th). I do not know when the next chat will be, but I will be at Twitter HQ on Tuesday to do a live Q&A around the paperback’s release. Thanks again and happy baseball!

Chris Crawford and I recorded a one-off show discussing this year’s Academy Awards, going through a dozen or so categories with who we think should win and who we think will win. Check it out if you’re at all movie-inclined.

Keith Law: Now I’ve lost the plot … Klawchat.

Pj: Syndergaard really has no comparables. In your opinion, what are the odds that he can stay healthy with his current arsenal (93 mph slider!) for 200 ip?
Keith Law: Lack of comparables is the real issue. He hasn’t had a serious arm injury so far, and he actually doesn’t seem to throw with that much effort given his velocity. 200 IP may not be the right milestone given usage patterns, but he’s gone 179.2 and 183 already; I see no reason he can’t do that regularly.

Frank: Who do you think wins the 4th outfield job in STL? Oneill, Bader, Garcia, or free agent yet to be signed?
Keith Law: Bader, I’d guess. Not sure signing an OF makes any sense at all for them.

Todd Boss: Fun question: I don’t believe we’ve yet had a player from the 2016 draft debut in the majors. Who is your pick for the first one to debut at this point?
Keith Law: Austin Hays debuted last year. I think he was the first … but of guys who haven’t debuted so far, I’d guess Puk or Senzel for the next one.

Damian: Hi Keith. Realistically eta for an everyday middle infield of Tatis Jr and Urias? Also, over/under average 3 WAR for Hosmer in his first 5 years?
Keith Law: Under for Hosmer. Tatis may still move off SS; I’ve called that an even money proposition, which I think is more optimistic than the industry consensus (which is that he’s going to get so big he’ll move to 3b or RF). I think Urias debuts this August or so. Tatis more likely 2019.

Perplexed: Need your help…I love reading a writer’s baseball analysis, but every chat he gets off topic and his heart bleeds all over my screen and I end up having to replace it. Your advice?
Keith Law: Seems like this is your own fault. You should make better decisions.

Florida Project for Best Pic: How do we get the Braves to flip-flop Albies and Gohara’s diets?
Keith Law: Ironically, they’re both pretty big drinkers. That would be my bigger concern.

Dan: Your fellow coffee connoisseur and baseball junkie, Andy Baggarly, wrote a great article on Chris Stratton’s curveball and the amazing spin rate he generates on it. Not sure if it really means it’s a great pitch or not, but regardless, do you see Chris Stratton pitching like a solid 4/5? Is there enough stuff, control, command in that arm?
Keith Law: I’ll check that piece out. He had a tremendous slider in college at Miss St, but his arm speed dropped off after he signed and hasn’t really come back. A 5, sure, a 4, maaaaaybe.

Jake Burger: Does this adversely affect my ability to stick at third?
Keith Law: TBD. Either you’ll have no loss in mobility at all, in which case you’re still a work in progress, or you’ll lose some mobility and then you’ll have to go to first. I don’t think there’s an in between here. But we won’t know anything till you’re back. (Get well soon.)

Jay: Over/under 10 pitchers on your top 100 list to succumb to TJ this year? One and counting.
Keith Law: Under. I’ll go with 7.5 as my o/u line.

Jay: Thoughts on the whole Acuna wearing his cap sideways thing?
Keith Law: MLB needs to stop asking Latin players to act less Latin. This is fucking stupid – show up on time, play hard, I don’t care if you wear your pants backwards like Kris Kross.

The Sloth: Upside for Alex Speas if he can ever locate?
Keith Law: It’s #1 stuff and athleticism but I don’t think there’s even a 5% chance of this.

Perry O. Dontist: You’ve traditionally given little value to relievers as prospects. I understand your thinking on that point, but as the relief role seems to be evolving, if a club tried to develop an ‘Andrew Miller type’ reliever (and he had success) would you think more highly of him as a prospect than you ordinarily would any minor league reliever?
Keith Law: Yes, if said pitcher showed he could handle the greater workload in fewer games (50 G 100 IP, not 65 G 70 IP).

G Dubya: What are your thoughts on the Twins signing Logan Morrison instead of another starting pitcher?
Keith Law: Solid value for them, gives them OBP they could use. Not sure it’s “instead” given the cost.

Dunkin’ Donuts: What is the chance Braves OF prospect Drew Waters becomes a star player?
Keith Law: Very low.

Perry O. Dontist: Thoughts on Mike Jeffcoat’s email?
Keith Law: For readers who missed it, the Texas Wesleyan coach emailed a potential recruit from Colorado and said he doesn’t take HS players from that state because too many of them test positive for weed – pro tip, stop testing for weed, it’s irrelevant to baseball and mostly harmless – and then made a crack about blaming “liberal” politicians. (Drug decriminalization isn’t liberal so much as libertarian; it has the conservative angle of decreasing government resources spent chasing, prosecuting, and imprisoning weed offenders, while also generating revenues from a new sin tax.) The school has already said it was inappropriate and they seem to be taking corrective actions. That said, if any coach is dumb enough to say he’s ignoring an entire state – not Alaska – then it’ll show in the standings, won’t it?

dave: I asked about this last week. What’s the opposition to requiring a pitcher to face two batters to improve pace of play?
Keith Law: Basically kills off specialist relievers. And with most players showing modest platoon splits, you might end up with so many unfavorable matchups for the team in the field that the gains are cancelled out by more men on base. (That’s speculation.) I’d prefer cutting time between pitching changes myself.

Lyle: Given how empty the cupboard is, if the Mariners don’t manage to pull off a playoff berth this year as the Cano-Cruz-Felix era winds down, how long will it realistically be before they can come up with a playoff berth in the future? 5 years? 7? 10? 50?
Keith Law: I think Houston has shown what you can do in 5 years if you tear it all down to the studs.

CB: What person who should already have been shown the door will cost the Angels more wins this year: Mike Scioscia or Albert Pujols?
Keith Law: Pujols.

Andy: How much of a mental Rolodex do you have of players? If I ask something about Ben Rortvedt or Austin Gomber (to pick two random nowhere near top 100 guys) do you know exactly about them, or do you have to go to a spreadsheet to find your notes on them?
Keith Law: I know those guys offhand, but I don’t know every player you might throw at me; I could probably answer you on a few hundred guys in the minors, then right now maybe 40-50 guys in this year’s draft class. I don’t use a spreadsheet, though. Too hard to read quickly.

Andy: When you read to your daughter with voices do you just resort to the accents/characterizations from the movie? I have a hard time remembering the voice for a character if it’s different than the movie accent.
Keith Law: Yep. My Snape wasn’t very good but I was very proud of my Dumbledore and my Dobby.

Archie: What do you think of Mike Krukow’s idea to shorten between inning breaks and recoup the advertising money lost by putting small ad patches on the player uniforms?
Keith Law: I’m really OK with that. I’m fine with ads on the screen between pitches or at bats too. I would think advertisers would prefer that because viewers aren’t walking away or distracted.

Erwin: What do you think of Nander de Sedas? Top 10 pick, stay at short?
Keith Law: Maybe top 10 pick, definitely first round, stays at short.

Ramon Neopolitano III: Hey Keith- lately, I’ve seen tons of media and fans act as if Manny Machado to the Yankees is a done deal already. While I do think they’re probably the favorites to sign him, why do we have articles (USA Today) implying it’s a foregone conclusion? Aren’t the White Sox and Phillies expected to go hard after him, too?
Keith Law: You can pretty well ignore anything that calls a free agent signing with a certain team a foregone conclusion eight months before they can even file. That’s clickbait.

KOK: Have you cooked anything interesting Sous Vide recently?
Keith Law: Have made duck a few times that way – so much easier to get a duck breast perfectly medium-rare sous vide.

Karl: Is there any sort of service you’re aware of that allows someone to test/rent board games without buying? I’m intrigued by some that you talk about but am wary of putting down a lot of money for them without knowing if I’d like them.
Keith Law: A lot of cities have board game cafes where you can go play stuff for a small fee or for the cost of food & drink. Also, conventions like Gen Con or PAX Unplugged charge admission but then there’s lots of open gaming.

Kevin: Any more insight on what substance Whitley was using? How much effect would this suspension have on his Top 100 ranking if you were to rank again?
Keith Law: Zero effect.

JJ: I know you’re not really a football guy, but I thought you’d enjoy this quote from new Raiders’ coach Jon Gruden, on using the team’s analytics department: “I’m trying to throw the game back to 1998. I’m not going to rely on modern technology. I will certainly have some people that are professional that can help me from that regard. But I still think doing things the old fashioned way is a good way.”
Keith Law: Good for him. I never liked the Raiders anyway.

Josh: Just spent a week in Scottsdale and your food guide was indispensable. How much does Whitley’s suspension hurt his development?
Keith Law: I don’t think it hurts much at all, because he wasn’t going to throw 160 innings or pitch six full months anyway. Maybe he loses four or five starts he would have otherwise made.

Grant: Alice in Chains or Pearl Jam?
Keith Law: Peak AiC. But the current incarnation is not good.

Nolan W: How much do you buy into framing metrics in their current form, specifically how the data is being translated to runs/WAR? In my judgment, the raw data captured by these metrics is generally in very close alignment with what the eye test tells us in terms of identifying good receivers vs bad ones. At the same time, it’s a little jarring to see Baseball Prospectus slap a 6 WAR on Tyler Flowers largely on the strength of superb framing stats.
Keith Law: Teams seem to think this is at least directionally correct. I do wonder if a player whose framing was worth, say, 3 WAR in one year is also likely to come back down towards the average pretty hard the next year. We don’t have a ton of framing data but there seems to be a lot of year to year volatility in it, implying that while it is a skill, there’s also some randomness involved too.

Derek: The two most coveted position players in baseball are a SS that can hit and a C that can hit (we seem to have a number of the former these days but not as many of the latter). What was the scouting report on Bryce Harper as an amateur C? Could he have been a 40 defender there? Assuming his bat would have developed the same way (maybe an implausible assumption), that’s probably more valuable than what he is in RF. Did the Nats make a mistake moving him off C?
Keith Law: Could have been a 50-60 defender back there. At least a 70 arm in practice, 80 arm strength. Hell of an athlete, of course. Liked doing it too. But you’d lose 30 games a year guaranteed, and if he’s had injury trouble in the outfield, it probably would have been worse at C.

Greg: What’s your take on the slow free agent market? Just a function of circumstances or are the owners up to no good? I admit to being a bit suspicious but I obviously have nothing concrete with which to back that up.
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s collusion. I think it was a weak market, overstuffed with players without homes – 1b/dh/lf types, mostly LHB – combined with a general philosophy against long-term contracts for hitters in their 30s or pitchers at all.

The Sloth: How big of an upside does Basabe (Luis Alexander of Chicago) possess? Is 20/20 a possible best case scenario?
Keith Law: Sure. I think he could be an above average regular if healthy.

Keith Kristol: You’ll be on the frontlines for the inevitable U.S. intervention in Syria, right? You definitely should be considering you’ve been peddling disgusting regime change propoganda. Remember the gas attack the “moderate” rebels were responsible for in 2013? Maybe you should consider that when these obviously false reports about Assad “gassing his own people” come out. Or you could actually find news sources outside of Netflix documentaries, Teen Vogue, and WaPo. Seriously, you should be ashamed of yourself.
Keith Law: You seem unwell. Or unhinged. By the way, from Amnesty International, on Syria buying materials to manufacture chemical weapons from North Korea: “But to help the Syrian government – which has repeatedly used chemical weapons against civilians – replenish its supplies would be a particularly egregious betrayal of humanity.” Or look at the state’s sieges of its own cities/regions like Ghouta, Raqqa, Aleppo. Hundreds of dissidents forcibly ‘disappeared.’ Assad’s longtime support of Hezbollah and other terrorist movements. I’m not sure who you think you’re defending here … or what you think I’ve even supported, other than writing about the two excellent documentaries on the crisis, Last Men in Aleppo (Oscar nominated) and City of Ghosts.

Bret: There’s been a lot of talk in Toronto about the Blue Jays using Danny Jansen as the backup to Russell Martin for much of this season — maybe not out of the gate, but perhaps from the middle of the season onwards. What kind of impact would that have on Jansen’s development?
Keith Law: Might help him if he gets to work more with the major league coaching and pitching staff. I think he can hit, and he’s not that young. But he needs a lot of work on receiving & working with pitchers.

JR: The best news in spring training is no news right? You don’t want to see your favorite team/players in any reports – just routine, injury free spring training.
Keith Law: Yep. I ignore most ST news, but injuries are tangible and at this time of year often really bad.

Jake: New college baseball fan here. Going to the University of MN baseball tournament this weekend. AZ, WA, and UCLA are the other teams participating. Any players from those teams worth paying close attention to?
Keith Law: Joe Demers at UW is a prospect. Arizona and UCLA are as bad as I can remember them being. And ASU is worse. (You didn’t ask, I just had to point that out.)
Keith Law: The best college baseball prospect in the state of Arizona isn’t at Arizona or ASU (Wong at Grand Canyon). How wrong does that sound?

BJinIndiana: First–finally bought Smart Baseball and loved it. I dislike dust jackets though, so I was very pleasantly surprised to see the green/brown colors underneath.
Keith Law: I wish I could take credit. Glad you liked it, though!

Tommy: Between Garver and Haase, who has more ability to stick and hit with some pop?
Keith Law: Haase I think has more everyday potential than Garver. Both big league backups at least.

That Guy in Detroit: Keith, thanks for the chat. Do you think there’s any way that Kelenic moves up enough for the Tigers to consider him 1-1?
Keith Law: I’d be truly shocked.

Sadie: Dbacks should blow it up after this year , correct ? Especially if Goldy walks
Keith Law: They have a $14.5 million option on him for 2019, which they will exercise. Very much worth exploring a trade for him and Greinke after this season, though. They could get a tremendous return, and clear some money to add elsewhere, without blowing the entire team up – they have some solid young pieces with a few years of control left. If they extend Goldschmidt, though, they might still trade Greinke to get rid of the contract but keep everything else intact.

Josh: Likelihood of the following outcomes for Lincecum (assuming he’s a RP only): 1) totally ineffective, washes out quickly 2) sticks around but isn’t very good, 3) adds some value as a middle reliever, 4) excels and becomes a closer/relief ace
Keith Law: I think 2 is most likely.

silvpak: given austin barnes’ elbow twinge this spring, utley’s advanced age, kelbert ruiz and will smith on the horizon, and forsythe coming to the end of his deal, what’s the likelihood LAD will, as the season progresses, start getting barnes more 2b experience? i have visions of craig biggio dancing in my head.
Keith Law: He has over 1400 innings at 2b in pro ball, so I don’t think he needs experience there. I do think they’ll turn to him if they have a need in-season at 2b or 3b.

Sally Fan: Would you send Juan Soto back to Hagerstown for the start of 2018, given his relatively short season there (he’d still be young for the league) or send him to Potomac?
Keith Law: I’d probably bump him up to Potomac. Hagerstown isn’t a great stadium or town anyway.

Nic: Chatting on Purim-I like this. Do you think the yankees are still the number 2 farm system after the drury trade?
Keith Law: It’s Purim? I had no clue. I should have made hamantashen. Yes, I do. They gave up two fairly minor prospects.

Fastball Velocity: How do I disappear from specific players? For example, Kolby Allard. Why has his velocity decreased so much in just one calendar year? You’ve mentioned his frame, but are there any other reasons?
Keith Law: Guys wear down, get hurt, lose muscle over the long season. Allard may just not have the stamina to be a good 180-inning starter. I love his upside if he shows this was just a one-year blip, though.

Tommy Pacu: Moncada recently: 0-3 on 7 pitches with two strikeouts. Is his swing and miss a big concern for Sox fans?
Keith Law: It is a big concern, yes.

Vince: Keith, who are some guys you’ll be watching in the Carolina League this year that weren’t there last year?
Keith Law: Ask me when we have rosters in April. I don’t really even think about that stuff until spring training ends.

Sadie: Do you like sausage or bacon more ? Hasbrown or home fries ?
Keith Law: Bacon. Hashbrowns. But I like all of these.

Tom: Keith, if they wanted to, could the Orioles even give away Davis or Trumbo, or do both have negative value?
Keith Law: Doubt you could give away Davis’s contract. Trumbo’s maybe but for no return.

Scouting: How hard is it to learn how to scout players? I’d like to dabble in it a little bit for fun, and I’d like to know where to start. Thanks!
Keith Law: I don’t think you can dabble in this, sorry. So much of scouting is about building up a mental database of players over the course of years of doing it. It’s why I don’t read or refer to many blogs that try to do scouting reports; you can’t just buy a radar gun and go to a game and know how to scout.

Scott from FLA. Cubs fan: National League West and Central loaded, and Mets get to play Marlins Braves and Phillies A LOT. Huge advantage—- Disparity for Wild Card??
Keith Law: Yes, but first the Mets have to be good (healthy) enough to take advantage of this.

Matt: So Russia has a video of nukes headed towards Florida and Trump refuses to acknowledge sanctions let alone a possible nuclear attack. At what point does the GOP come to terms that our president is a danger to America?
Keith Law: The BBC podcast The Inquiry looked at the 2017 cyberattack on Ukraine that eventually affected over 60 countries, and the indirect evidence that Russia was behind it. It shut down hospitals and other critical systems here in the US. You’d think we’d do something about that, since it cost American businesses real money. (It’s their most recent episode, and that podcast in general is one of my favorites. One topic, 23-24 minutes, with four experts discussing it in turn.)

Charlie: I honestly think you should give this season of Top Chef a try. There has been some fantastic cooking recently and it’s the funniest group of chefs in a long time. I can’t defend the Logan Paul choice as a guest judge early on, but you mentioned you heard nachos was a winning dish. It was actually the losing dish in an admittedly weak tailgate challenge.
Keith Law: I’m not going back to start it now. Season’s starting, and plenty of other good stuff to watch. Unsolved episode one was fantastic.

David (VZLA): You’re Cashman…. Andujar or Drury to start the season?
Keith Law: Andujar starts, Drury on the roster of course.

John: Whats do you think is the bigger hold up for good middle of the rotation options line Lynn and Cobb, dollars or years?
Keith Law: Lynn has a pick attached, right? I think that’s a killer for guys left out there. Years probably a secondary factor.

Larry: Thoughts on unions? I agree whole heartedly with their purpose, but I also think they can be too powerful. I have a friend that missed 3 weeks of work without calling in, got “fired,” and he says he can’t be fired because he’s in the union. Sure enough two days later he got his job back. That’s pretty frustrating from my point of view and I hate that they have that much power. But the general purpose is great.
Keith Law: Unions also tend to raise costs to the end consumers, too. But if you had no unions, the balance would tip heavily in favor of capital (ownership). And they already have the money to beat you in court.

Craig: Who do you think wins the 3rd SD OF Job? Let the lottery ticket Franchy go for it and see if the tools translate?
Keith Law: Would love to see that.

John: After signing Morrison it looks like Vargas is on his way out in MN. Does he have any trade value?
Keith Law: Don’t think so. Up and down guy at best.

Tony: Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe you’ve commented that the Pirates player development system hasn’t had success in changing swing angles to increase power. I read comments from the Pirates that they hoped with an adjustment to Bryan Reynolds’ swing angle his power would begin to play and he’d fulfill his potential. Question: do you think such a project is generally feasible and, in this specific instance, how high is Reynolds ceiling if he is able to make this adjustment?
Keith Law: I think it’s feasible for guys who already have some feel to hit and some natural power. I would love to get a time machine and try this with Ryan Sweeney, the best 5 o’clock power hitter I ever saw (who couldn’t do it in games, obviously).

Greyson: Have you heard any buzz on Tyler Kolek? Is he back near 100 or are those days over?
Keith Law: Check his stats from last year. If he’s 100, it’s to the backstop now.

Stu: The Reds are trying Senzel at SS… chance he sticks?
Keith Law: I think nearly zero.

Brian: A national reporter quoted a scout today saying that JP Crawford isn’t a good defender. How can any scout possibly think that?
Keith Law: No clue. Some scouts don’t like the way he plays – I’ve heard that on Brendan Rodgers too – and that may be coloring that one guy’s opinion on JPC. I think Crawford might be a 70 defender if he works at it.

Jack: Thoughts on Jose Israel Garcia? I’m falling in love with the tools from what I’m reading, but it’s so hard to find any video on the guy.
Keith Law: Everything i have on him is in the ‘just missed’ column. I’ve never seen the guy – almost no one has outside of a few teams who scouted him last June.

JM: Album yet to be released that you are most anticipating?
Keith Law: Courtney Barnett, Frank Turner, Speedy Ortiz.

Tye: Why are you so low on Gonsalves? Is his ceiling more of a 4/5? Will he be better than replacement level?
Keith Law: How am I low on him? He’s a lefty with no average breaking ball and fringe-average velocity. I don’t think he’s more than a 4.

Sean: I had a discussion with a co-worker about pitching injuries. My co-worker tried to make the case that the pitchers of old were more durable than today’s pitchers because of innings/pitch limits imposed today. I know this a preposterous claim, but I want to find a better way to illustrate to him that this not the case than just stating that reserve clause age pitchers were less incentivized to report injuries than today’s pitchers. Do you have area I can look to for greater knowledge on the issue?
Keith Law: They also didn’t throw anywhere near as hard as today’s pitchers. I think the average fastball velocity has been creeping up steadily for about 20 years now.

Chris : Knowing how much you love Chvrches but how you’re not a fan of Matt Berninger’s voice, how torn were you on whether to like the new Chvrches single featuring him?
Keith Law: I wasn’t torn at all. It’s terrible. So is “Get Out.”

Brian: I want to follow up on a question I asked last week: while most saw Mickey Moniak as a below dollar sign in a weak draft. But almost every draft analyst seemed to agree w/the Phillies that he had a good hit tool. That seems to have been exposed an incorrect., So what I’m wondering is how a consensus like that develops that’s incorrect? Is it something about what scouts saw or is it related to projecting how a guy will hit better pitching?
Keith Law: Scouts saw him hit well against good pitching as an amateur. I don’t know that I’d say it’s “incorrect;” you’d have to give him another year before going that far. I’d say that his hit tool isn’t as advanced today (present tool) as we thought. He might still hit.

Adam Doctolero: I find the research that has been done regarding the juiced baseballs to be fascinating and pretty damning for MLB, but I have a hard time reconciling that with their obsession with shorter games. Is MLB really dumb enough to not recognize that more offense leads to longer games, or are they just trying to have their hot fruit and eat it too?
Keith Law: Probably the latter. They’d love three-hour games with lots of homers. I guess you could do that with a giant strike zone?

Noah: Nats’ Jefry Rodroguez a prospect for you?
Keith Law: Saw him right before the suspension. A prospect, not an elite one.

Tom: So why are we fighting about ideas to stop school shootings? Lets do a bunch of stuff, stricter gun laws, armed security guards at schools, stronger security measures in schools, why is it always just one idea against another instead of a compromise where we put pieces of everyones thoughts together?
Keith Law: I can say for myself that a lot of the proposals for “stronger security measures” are going to be very expensive and produce very little benefit. (Some such measures, like metal detectors, just create new soft targets because they slow entry and crowds build up outside the building.) I want safer schools; I don’t want our governments spending a billion or so dollars on measures that won’t work.

Oscar: Debating getting a French Press or Pour Over for my office? Where do you fall? Any particular models you recommend?
Keith Law: Pour-over takes more time, but makes better coffee. I have a Hario, which was maybe $24.

Andy: Ken Griffey Jr also used to disrespect the game, by wearing his hat backwards.
Keith Law: Yes he did. So disrespectful.

Jim Nantz: Lincecum as a closer intrigues me if he’s actually throwing 90-93 as reports have suggested. Think he’s got anything left?
Keith Law: Unlikely, not impossible. Let’s see how hard he’s throwing when he throws three times in four games.

Scott: Please help me settle an argument with a friend. Does momentum exist in baseball? I cite the Sela and Simonoff study, but he showed me that Bill James believes it is possible it exists. What is your view?
Keith Law: It does not exist. Someone believing a thing is possible does not make it possible. (And your friend used a classic appeal to authority. “Keith Law believes it does not exist” isn’t a good argument either. Instead, tell him to show you evidence that this invisible, important thing is actually real.)

Craig: Where will Rodgers End up for the Rockies? Is he good enough to push Story out or is the more realistic thing to do is to move to second and move DJ?
Keith Law: I think the odds of Rodgers going to 2b or 3b are increasing.

Sandy Kazmir: How soon do you think we’ll see teams turning away from strikeout-prone hitters?
Keith Law: I believe some teams are already hunting for those guys – not just in the majors, but in the draft too.

Mike: Re: Acuna. I don’t think anyone can say they didn’t love watching the DR and PR play in the WBC last year. Watching Baez, Lindor, and Correa was so much fun every game.
Keith Law: If you didn’t love watching those dudes, you probably should go watch golf.

Rick Giolito: Keith, I went to all SS pans from Anodized but I’m having trouble keeping food from sticking. Help!
Keith Law: Stainless steel? I would guess you need to use more fat when cooking. Anodized is truly nonstick. Stainless steel is not nonstick – it’s great for searing or browning foods where you intend to use the brown bits left on the pan (fond) by deglazing.

Smith: What do you expect from Brent Rooker this season? What level should he begin at, how soon do you think he will be in Minneapolis?
Keith Law: Start in high-A, and bump him to double-A if he rakes there again. Older guy so get him moving. So far, very good with him.

Matt: Schilling is a Parkland truther. WTF happened to him? Was he always that crazy?
Keith Law: No. I wouldn’t have been able to work with him if he were a hoaxer – I remember him specifically saying in the green room that he thought Alex Jones’ Sandy Hook hoaxerism was reprehensible. Now … I wasn’t going to let this shit affect my Hall ballot, but I think he just obliterated my principles.

Andy: Andrew Miller was also the top college pitching prospect and a top 10 draft pick, who failed at starting. So what teams need to do to develop the next “Andrew Miller type” is to have starting pitchers who have big stuff but may lack the control or enough pitches to last 6 innings.
Keith Law: Or the durability to go 180-200. This is something I’ve said about McCullers, and Fulmer, and Severino (who more than held up last year).

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: The cooked hat things kills me. It has nothing to do with the player’s national origin. It’s like a crooked painting hanging on the wall. I have the overwhelming urge to run onto the field and straighten Strop’s or Rodney’s hat.
Keith Law: OK but that’s your OCD, no? (I’m a little bit the same way myself.)

Steve: A healthy Blake Swihart that can catch ~50 games, play 2B and some OF would be a wildly valuable guy if he’s average defensively, right? Chances he puts up a 2 win year?
Keith Law: Yep. I’m a big Swihart fan. If he’s healthy, and throwing fine, then I’ll bet on him going over 2 WAR.

Greg: Random question, have you tried an escape room? If so thoughts?
Keith Law: Only in board game form.

Kris: When reporters say IFAs are “linked” to a team does that almost guarantee that the player will sign with the linked team?
Keith Law: Yes. They have an oral agreement in place. This is illegal and happens all the time.

ScottyG: I know they shouldn’t, but WILL the Rays trade Archer this spring? If so, do the Cardinals have what it takes to make this happen? Archer/Martinez/Reyes has a nice ring to it….
Keith Law: At this point, I wouldn’t drop my price if I were the Rays. Try again in July.

Tommy Pacu: Hey – Alaskan here! Jeez, no love for the biggest state? Curious as to your thoughts on competition level of Alaska summer league. Lots of big names cycled through in the past but you never mention the league… is it relevant prospect wise these days?
Keith Law: Not any more, sadly. Would love to go scout there, though!

That Guy in Detroit: Keith, got any new metal to recommend?
Keith Law: The new Tribulation album is incredible.

ML: You think Tatis, Guerrero, or Bichette could make his MLB debut this season?
Keith Law: I’d bet on no for each of them.

Tom: Does Ryan Vilade have the talent to be a top 100 prospect someday? Thanks.
Keith Law: Yes.

Jamal: Another way to test out board games is to check out your local library as they are increasingly available to rent.
Keith Law: That I have not seen, although my local branch does host a game night every month.

Todd Boss: Texas Wesleyan went ahead and fired that coach: http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/22615612/texas-wesleyan-…
Keith Law: And there you go. I had a feeling they might, but I don’t know that this was truly a firing offense. It’s not comparable to saying you wouldn’t recruit a Muslim or black or gay player.

Dave: You seem to think pretty highly of Luis Medina given his “sleeper” status. Do you think he’ll have starter control/command as he matures?
Keith Law: I do. Hoping to see him this year at some point.

Humor me: In high school, I ran a 3.99 as a lefty from home to first. On the 20-80 scale, what is grade is that for speed?
Keith Law: About a 70.

ML: You a Denilson Lamet believer? #2 potential?
Keith Law: No. LHB killed him last year.

Tim : Do you think Tim Beckham has finally figured it out? Big league regular?
Keith Law: Great for two weeks after the trade, then back to normal.

MSS: Healthy lunches to eat in the office that aren’t salad?
Keith Law: I eat yogurt with granola and fruit for lunch almost every day.

Steve: I know your lukewarm on Sixto, but if he were to continue his path to potential of being an “ace” as some other scouts have claimed, what would you want to see from him this year?
Keith Law: I am not lukewarm on him. That’s just ridiculous – look where I ranked the kid.

Sandy Kazmir: Are you of the opinion that it is more likely that a good contact batter can add power than a good power hitter can add contact or is it too much of an individual thing to generalize like this?
Keith Law: You’re probably right that it’s too individual, but I’ll play along and pick the former over the latter.

Kwame : Is there a data driven way to determine how much managers help or hurt a team? Is this something teams do in some way? I think we all know managing a bullpen, not bunting etc helps but is there a way to rank managers?
Keith Law: I would bet teams track some of that stuff in ways we don’t/can’t.

Jesse: What are your thoughts on the legacy game format in general? As much as I love the concept, I’m still put off by the idea that I can’t replay the game through once it’s done. Plus I would think it tanks resale value.
Keith Law: Charterstone has a recharge pack you can buy to start over on the second side, and then you can continue to play it more without the story part. That’s part of its brilliance.

Todd Boss: Keith Kristol’s “question” reminds me of the quote from the Howard Stern movie, when the program director (when told that people who hated Stern listened longer than his fans), said, “If they hate him … why do they listen?”

If they hate you keith … why are they asking you questions and reading your content?
Keith Law: I will never, ever understand that.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Just a tip, here are three things you aren’t changing very many people’s minds on: politics, religion, sexual orientation. Just a tip from your friendly Blue Eye.
Keith Law: You’ll notice I don’t discuss religion … pretty much ever.

Dan: Any Southeast PA prospects to go watch? Sianni, Helverson, Guilbe, Kelchner?
Keith Law: Siani for me – he’s probably the only one I’ll go see.

Craig: Ohtani is a bust! Look at his spring training stats. Only kidding but did you see or learn anything from watching him pitch that you didnt know?
Keith Law: I didn’t watch. I’ll go see him when I’m there – watching two tune-up innings from the CF camera isn’t going to show me anything.

Anon: My doctor has talked to me about taking Lexapro for general anxiety. While I’d appreciate the relief, I’m worried about how much of my identity would be affected. I’ve dealt with anxiety all my life and worry that who I am as a person might change. From your experience did you feel like you “changed” when you started medication?
Keith Law: I did change, but only for the better. Hit me up offline if you have more questions – I took it for five years.

JJ: Did you make a “Best Picture” pick for this year, or do I have to listen to the podcast you mentioned at the top of the chat?
Keith Law: You can listen to that or wait for a post here on Sunday.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: For the people crying about divisions–Central has Pirates and Reds; $100 says Phillies and Braves are better than both.
Keith Law: Probably true, although I wouldn’t sleep on the Reds’ pitching. Their bullpen could be tremendous.

Jeremy: When are you headed to Phoenix or Florida this year?
Keith Law: Phoenix first, but possibly detouring to Florida for a day to see a HS player, then Florida the 21-27 (I’m boxed in on both ends for that trip).

Paul: Do you think any of the remaining top free agents misses a significant amount of games from being unsigned?
Keith Law: It’s inevitable, I think.

Jack: Do you ever encounter really talented players that just don’t give a shit? I coach high school soccer and have a kid who could play professionally but he’d rather party. It’s so aggravating to see someone waste their potential.
Keith Law: Yep. Donavan Tate comes to mind.

Dr. Bob: Could changing the launch angle of a hitter without natural power just turn bloop hits into fly outs? Launch angle is not the answer by itself, is it?
Keith Law: No, it’s not. You’d better hit the ball hard first, and then work on launch angle.
Keith Law: OK, gotta run, sorry I’m missing so many more of your questions but I ran over to try to get to more. I’ll be at Auburn tomorrow night, weather permitting on both ends of the trip, so if you’re there feel free to say hi. Thank you as always for reading and chatting!

New content – I reviewed the amazing competitive legacy game Charterstone for Paste, and wrote up the three-team Souza-Drury trade and JD Martinez signing for Insiders.

Keith Law: Don’t let the walls cave in on you. Klawchat.

addoeh: Please rank these common reactions to dad jokes. A) Subject turns to you and approves of joke. B) Subject turns to you and disapproves of joke. C) Subject turns away from you trying to stifle laughter.
Keith Law: Everyone laughs. Some people just try to hide it.

Scott: What’s a proper punishment for these disgusting conspiracy theorists? Have them fired from their jobs? Exiled? Beheaded in the town square? I mean who wouldn’t blindly trust our outstanding corporate media and government despite a history of false flags, CIA black ops, and programs like Mockingbird?
Keith Law: Fired works for me. And banned from social media. False flag operations that took place a century ago aren’t relevant to claims that there’s a network of crisis actors paid by a specific Hungarian Jew with the complicity of all media … you idiot.

Ray Grace: I just read a fascinating article on the Athletic about Alex Wood going full time out of the stretch instead of the windup, in part because Strausburg had so much success doing that last year. I’m curious of your thoughts on that.
Keith Law: Whatever he’s comfortable with. Dude still really has no history of staying healthy as a starter.

Seb: Keith – I understand Austin Beck is kind of a lottery ticket for the A’s and why he wasn’t included in most of the reputable Top 100 lists. However, he was the 6th pick less than 9 months ago. What do you see as his ceiling? Thanks and keep up the good work!
Keith Law: Ceiling is at least an above-average regular in an outfield corner … I guess CF is possible given his speed, but he’s a long way off. The problem for him if you’re placing value on him today is probability. There’s a high risk he never gets out of AA, given where his approach is right now and what he did last summer.

Mike: I was looking at various minor league MVPs and curious if you had any opinions about either Darick Hall or Fernando Kelli. There’s almost nothing out there about Kelli.
Keith Law: That’s because Kelli hasn’t played in the US yet. Hall was 21 in low-A, not a prospect, older guy with power and poor plate discipline.

Albert: Hey KLaw, love your chats. Rangers questions, do you think Gallo takes a huge step forward this year, perhaps even into Aaron Judge territory?
Keith Law: I’m a Gallo fan, have been since he was in HS, but I think forecasting him into Aaron Judge territory would be purely wishful thinking.

Robert: Keith, what are your thoughts on blaming school shootings (or any shooting) on “mental illness”? I’m in favor of stronger gun restrictions for those with actual mental illness, but this debate is going to intentionally or unintentionally stigmatize people experiencing mental illness.
Keith Law: That’s totally what it is – it takes advantage of the general public ignorance about “mental illness,” particularly that it is all one thing rather than a broad spectrum of disorders from depression and anxiety to sociopathy, psychopathy, and antisocial or narcissistic personality disorders. And it diverts attention from the actual issue at hand, which is that no civilian has any valid reason to own a semiautomatic weapon.

Dr. Bob: Good afternoon, Keith. You saw Derrick Goold’s article about Mike Maddux wanting Cards’ pitchers to elevate the ball some as a way to counteract the hitting trend to lift the ball. What do you think?
Keith Law: If that’s a one size fits all approach, then I don’t like it. Maddux has a mixed track record with young arms from his last few stops, and that approach is one reason for it. You can elevate the ball if you throw particularly hard, or have a high spin rate on your four seamer, or have deception, or have plus command. Many big league starters don’t have those things, or maybe have just one, and having them try to attack the top of the zone is just going to mean more fly balls.

Tony P (@disguyyy): (take 2) Hi Keith, Do you find yourself going down rabbit-holes during times like the last week? It’s been so hard to stay focused when I see misinformation or something I feel responsible for correcting then next thing I know, I’ve done 20 minutes of research just to debunk some idiot on the internet. How do you reel yourself back or avoid it in the first place?
Keith Law: That’s generally time to walk away from the computer. I’m particularly prone to clicking on one thing and waking up 20 minutes later having read four articles and learned a lot but accomplished none of what I sat down to do.

dave: I’ve never seen this simple rule change discussed to improve pace-of-play and shorten games. What if a pitcher had to face a minimum of two batters instead of just one?
Keith Law: That’s been discussed at least since the 1990s. Doesn’t seem to be any desire to do that within MLB.

Manny: Where should devers bat in the Sox line up. Top third, middle third? Does lefty, righty alternation really matter much?
Keith Law: L/R alternation matters for late in games; you don’t want a string of LHB with platoon issues whom opposing lefties can carve up. I don’t know their lineup offhand to say where Devers should bat – he’s probably not among their top 3 hitters so I guess below that. As long as he plays every day, I’m happy.

Rob (Gilbert): I think I remember you saying that you started playing Pandemic: Legacy. How many characters did you use (or did it vary), and did you ever finish?
Keith Law: We didn’t finish S1, just because we keep getting other games (for me to review) and we got caught up in Charterstone lately.

Sandy Kazmir: Spin me tales about why I shouldn’t hate everything upon learning my favorite baseball player will miss most of the next two years.
Keith Law: Honeywell’s not officially out for 18 months … but yeah, doesn’t sound good, and I’d be pretty damn disappointed too with him right on the cusp of a debut. If he’s done, then I guess Andriese becomes the 4th starter and Banda starts in the pen?
Keith Law: Sorry I don’t have something uplifting to tell you, though.

Adam Doctolero: What would you say your core organizational philosophy would be in regards to drafting/player development?
Keith Law: Doubt that’s anything I could distill into a short chat answer. That’s probably a three-page essay.

Chris: I’m still intrigued by Gavin Cecchini. Feel like he has utility player potential at 3B, 2B and OF (hasn’t played out there yet but I don’t see why not give it a try as he’s stuck in AAA). What are your thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Can’t throw enough for 3b.

Jason: Keith…is there an obvious move for StL to make? Or are they better off at this point to see what they have in rotation and bullpen and adjust from there?
Keith Law: yes, I think going after a bigger starter would help. They have OF and P surplus in the upper minors. I like Flaherty a ton, but they can upgrade on that spot for this year and let him start in AAA for a few months.

Jon: What are you looking for for Max Kepler this year? Assume he will get some good run in Minnesota?
Keith Law: Not quite sure what you’re asking in the second question. I expect continued improvement at the plate – he’s always developed on a delayed sort of schedule, unsurprising for someone who grew up in a non-baseball country.

Zach: What to do with AJ Reed? Has to be a trade right? Does his bat still project as a quality hitter?
Keith Law: I’d take a flier on him. Actually thought he’d be a good fit for Tampa Bay, although Cron probably blocks him now.

Nick: Did the Yankees give up too much for Drury? Two top 20 prospects from a great system seems like a lot to me.
Keith Law: It’s not a lot. Even that framing, which I think underestimates the gap between their top 10-12 and the rest of their top 20, doesn’t sound bad … how many teams really have 20 good prospects? Maybe two right now, if that?

John: I read Brian Kenny’s Ahead of the Curve. Does Smart Baseball offer any different takes or more of the same?
Keith Law: It’s not the same, since I wrote it.

Jack: Would the Phillies be smart to sign Arrieta?
Keith Law: No.

Chris: Should more positionless-AAAA bat-only types be tried at catcher? I saw Mets were giving Philip Evans reps there and think it’s a low-risk, high reward move.
Keith Law: I vaguely remember him trying to catch years ago, maybe as an amateur? Kind of a Tony Wolters thing? You have to have the right body, arm strength, and some athleticism to do it. And it’s a ton of work.

Sean: Correct move for Detroit to go move Castellanos away from the hot corner to make room for Candelario? Not like he’s a stud defensively either. But both seem to be able to hit.
Keith Law: Yeah, I think it’s time to turn the page permanently on Castellanos at third.

Jay: If you know, what was the drug Whitley was suspended for, and why all the secrecy?
Keith Law: I think I know, but I don’t know with enough sourcing to report. I think the secrecy is inadvertent – not a steroid, not weed or coke or something worse, so it doesn’t fit neatly in MLB’s buckets. (It was caffeine.)

Larry: I was a little disappointed in your Brady Singer answer last week. Did you get an update from when you last saw him in April of last year? Is the AA and stuff improved?
Keith Law: Disappointed in Singer? He’s had the same arm action since high school and it hasn’t changed. I’ll see him tomorrow night at Miami and Kowar Saturday.

Jason: Regarding StL outfielder prospects…which would you prefer to keep and which would you prefer to trade?
Keith Law: Not counting the big leaguers? I don’t think they have anyone I would HAVE to keep. If you’re getting someone like Archer, you make any of them available. I happen to love Mercado and think there’s more growth there, but I would trade him for sure in the right deal. I have said I think O’Neill is the most blocked, and thus the first name I’d make available.

Luke: Are the Rays really that much worse off than they were a week ago?
Keith Law: I assume this excludes Honeywell? I agree. Maybe two wins worse. Where they sit, that’s essentially zero.

JC: It won’t push them into a contender per se, but considering the Braves are projected to be sub replacement level in the corner OF not including Acuna, should they at least check in on Dickerson? It would also make Acuna not on the OD roster slightly less indefensible
Keith Law: If you can get Dickerson essentially for free, then yes, definitely.

Machado : How do you feel about macahdo moving to SS, doesn’t he project better as a 3B? And do you think he will live back to 3B
Keith Law: Projects very well at SS. I never thought he’d have to move – he moved for Hardy.

Chris: Sandy hinted that John Ricco could be his successor. Mets fans don’t know much about him. Thoughts? (Could also easily see Omar Minaya coup with how dysfunctional they’re run)
Keith Law: I know John a little, but have no experience working with him, and my understanding is he’s worked mostly with the major-league side of operations there so I don’t know a lot of people who’ve worked closely with him either.

Eric: Hi Keith,
What do you think the ceiling for Hudson Potts is this year? He really found his power in the 2nd half of 2017. Can he keep it going and crack the top 100?
Keith Law: Plate discipline/pitch recognition is (are?) his main flaw. Still just 19 this year, though.

Evan: Hey Klaw, got an Anova for Christmas and absolutely loving it. I know you’ve been off of the red meat, but what’s your favorite use for it? Pork chops, chicken thighs? Any special recipes? Thanks for the chats!
Keith Law: Chicken thighs, five hours at 165, then sear off to crisp the skin. I call it the Chris Crawford special: little bit of chicken thighs and cold beer on a Friday night.

Jonathan: Water: Sparkling or Still?
Keith Law: Sparkling, please. (burp)

Nick: With the high washout rate of HS arms, would it be crazy for the Reds to consider moving Greene for a piece closer to the majors? I wouldn’t give him away but if he can be the centerpiece for someone like Chris Archer, for example, should the Reds pull the trigger?
Keith Law: Arms like his don’t come along very often. Some risks are worth taking because the payoff is so high even if the probability is low.

Jim: …not to mention this Administration removed restrictions on people with mental illnesses buying guns…
Keith Law: Please do mention that.

Sally Fan: How many “aces” are there in the majors? Is this a relatively stable number year to year? How much does this play in to evaluating “ace upside” in minor leaguers?
Keith Law: I have personally defined ‘ace’ during my career as someone who’d be the #1 starter in half or more of the rotations in the majors in a typical year. By definition, that would center around 15, some years a few more, some a few … fewer. I do not agree that there are 30 aces. There are 30 nominal #1s, but as the scout Abe Lincoln once said, if you call a dog’s tail a leg, it’s still a tail.

Jay: Thoughts on who came off the best/worst in last night’s town hall?
Keith Law: Didn’t watch.

John: Someone suffering from the broad catch-all “mental illness” is 5x-10x more likely to be the victim of a violent crime than to be the perpetrator depending on the study you look it. Its a red herring of an argument that people find way too compelling.
Keith Law: Analogous: Crazy evangelicals & bigots pushing trans bathroom bills, when trans people are almost 4 times more likely to be victims of violence … oh, wait, sorry, that’s 4 times more likely to be victims of POLICE violence. 47% of trans people will experience a sexual assault in their lifetimes. If there’s a trans person in a public bathroom and I walk in, I’m more worried for him, not for me or any children in the facility.

Jack: All your recent amateur scouting has got me thinking – do you believe there’s anybody on the planet that throws 100 MPH+ that you’ve never heard of before? Thanks!
Keith Law: With a baseball pitcher’s delivery? Doubt it. There are probably kids who can throw a rock or other object fairly hard, but 100 mph+ is a combination of a genetic gift and years of throwing.

Jon: Keith, why does it feel like the Florida teams aren’t getting decent returns in their tanking/rebuilding efforts? Is the playing field more level? Are the front offices of these two teams behind? Desperation?
Keith Law: Revenue bases are very low for both clubs.

Arin, d-town ca: Can Bryce Brentz be an everyday player for the Pirates?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: Too much swing and miss.

Luigi: All the commentary I’ve read about Tristen Lutz praises his power. What is the reputation on his hit tool? How good he can be?
Keith Law: His skill is extremely hard contact, which leads to power. It’s not sell-out, dead pull power. He can hit.

Jack: What should the Giants do if they’re in the cellar again come July 31?
Keith Law: Trade ’em all. And yes, I mean all, as painful as that would be.

Ben: So is everyone gonna just ignore the fact that Billy Graham was an antisemitic, anti-lgbt mysoginist?
Keith Law: Who abandoned his kids for long stretches and tried to convince his daughter not to divorce her philandering husband.

PJ: Between Max Fried and Luiz Gohara, who should I be more excited to see in our lovely taxpayer-funded park this year?
Keith Law: Eh, both are pretty fun in different ways.

WhiteSoxAndy: I heard about a rule being discussed on the Rich Eisen show in which teams can put any three players up to bat to start the 9th inning. This sounds like a really dumb idea. Is it?
Keith Law: It is indeed a really dumb idea. I don’t know where it originated.

Ron: Does the addition of Gomez change your evaluation of the Souza trade from the Rays’ perspective at all? The players are obviously not equivalent values by themselves, but does a year of Gomez at $4 mil+prospects turn this into something approaching a win for the Rays?
Keith Law: It’s good value for the Rays, yes. Doesn’t alter the question of whether they got sufficient return for Souza.

Amory Blaine: How good can Luis Castillo be?
Keith Law: Without a good breaking ball, 2017 is his ceiling.

John: Where would juan Pablo Martinez rank in your top 100 prospects?
Keith Law: Answered last week – he would not.

Seath: Im a veteran and I am currently looking at masters programs that is both practical but could open the door in case i want to pursue a behind the scenes career in MLB. I have an MPA now and i’m looking into an MS in Business Analytics (I had to take a Quantitative Analysis class in my MPA program and loved it). Would you recommend something in that area or something completely different?
Keith Law: Thank you for your service. I think you’re on the right track. Ability to work with big data and coding skills will play in multiple industries.

Chris: In your opinion, who is more likely to leave and sign with another team next winter: Harper or Machado?
Keith Law: Both.

Larry: If Alex Jackson isn’t workable behind the plate, is the bat enough to be an everyday corner OF?
Keith Law: Maybe. Odds under 50% but well above 0.

Logic: Keith, Regarding Vincent. It was many years ago now, in the 90’s when I went to Baltimore’s art museum to see an exhibit featuring Starry Night. I had no interest in art and knew nothing about it. I went because my girlfriend (love of my life) wanted to go, besides we could go to Fell’s Point later for some fun. When I saw the painting I was totally captivated. I couldn’t take my eyes off of it. It’s almost 3 dimensional. A wonderful experience that stills lives in me. If you get the opportunity, check it out.
Keith Law: I will, next time I’m down that way. I don’t think I would have been able to tell you anything about Van Gogh’s style before seeing Loving Vincent, but after the film I realized he does things I can appreciate even as an art philistine.

George: I just thought of this the other day, as I recently had a baby girl and was thinking about vaccinations; if they cause Autism–which they don’t–wouldn’t the numbers of boys to girls with Autism be fairly equal, not extremely one-sided in boys who are affected?
Keith Law: Right. Also, unvaccinated kids get autism at the same rate as vaccinated kids.

Matt: These kids from Parkland are kicking ass and taking names
Keith Law: Indeed. I hope they can keep it going until November.

Daniel: How close is Luke Weaver to a real third pitch, and how good can he be if it’s just a show-me curve that he can throw for strikes?
Keith Law: Not close enough for me to call him a sure starter.

Roger: Concern that Ethan Hankins is already dealing with shoulder issues?
Keith Law: Supposedly just muscular. Of course it’s a concern but let’s see him get back on the mound before we get too alarmed.

Dutch: What are your thoughts on Alexander Canario? The KATOH projection system loves him but I can’t find a single long form article about him. Is this simply an example of KATOH’s weakness for scouting the statline?
Keith Law: DSL player. I don’t know enough about Katoh’s algorithm to comment, but I would question *any* system that tried to project major-league value based on DSL stats.

Brandon: Kolby Allard’s prospect ranking has been all over the place depending on the list you look at. Why are so many people torn on him? Is it his size?
Keith Law: Size and reduced velocity over the course of 2017. When I asked around this winter about him, my top 100, what other teams thought of Atlanta’s system, I got fairly consistent responses that he’d slipped and also been passed by several other arms in their system (like Wilson).

Bort: With Honeywell almost certainly out for 2018, doesn’t it make even more sense for the Rays to trade Chris Archer?
Keith Law: “Almost certainly?” Look, I get that he could have just blown out his elbow, but that statement is not accurate right now.

John: I’m curious about the Megan McArdle thing that you circulated earlier this week. Tried following the links, and couldn’t find anything she had necessarily done wrong. Do you have any insight? The accusation is that she made up a number, but the “proof” was her saying that it was in the middle of a hypothetical. If true, then that’s not wrong.
Keith Law: That was her ex post rationalization for it. She’s also written repeatedly about topics like health care reform without disclosing her numerous conflicts of interest. It was a terrible hire in the WaPo/NYT editorial pages’ race to the bottom.

Seth : what do you think drury’s potential is? everyone keeps saying he’s filled with “untapped potential” … what say you?
Keith Law: Low-OBP but high average with some pop, plays 2nd (poorly) and 3rd (more than adequately), everyday guy for some teams, eventually a good bench player for the Yanks.

M.D. Pepper : Hi Keith, reports from SB Nation noted that Jahmai Jones may be getting some time at second base, which Jahmai somewhat denied. Would it be of value for the Angels if he made that transition and could he be capable of doing so since he played the position in high school?
Keith Law: Not sure when he did that in HS … sure, it’ll raise his value, because I think in that system his odds of staying in CF are low given the presence of other CF like Marsh.

Adam: Even if the bat never comes around, is there still a chance for Javier Guerra to make the majors as a defensive replacement? Or is the bat currently that bad?
Keith Law: Bat hasn’t looked the same since the trade and medical issue. Not sure if it’s medication or something else, but he’s looked much slower at the plate.

CapePorpoise: I’m trying to understand your NYT subscription cancellation. Given the number of links you’ve given, I’m assuming you agree it’s still one of the best news organizations. Are one columnist’s views sufficient cause to require your action?
Keith Law: Not “one columnist,” and I think I made that fairly clear. This is Stephens and Douthat and Norton (since axed, but really, nice process, guys) and to a lesser extent brooks. It’s articles normalizing neo-Nazis and giving excessive voice to Trump voters. And they’ve run their share of pseudoscience claptrap too, like Danny Hakim’s well-reviled piece attacking GMOs contrary to all available science.

Mikey B: Rays just traded Dickerson to the Pirates. FYI.
Keith Law: Well there you have it.

Dr. Bob: Man, did you get hammered by Padres’ fans for stating the obvious about SD signing Hosmer. They should be able to see the same things that we all see. What do you think their motive was?
Keith Law: Plenty of rational Padres fans came out to support me, but the trolls are the loudest, unfortunately. It’s amusing to me how thoroughly a fan base can convince itself of a player’s intangibles even when they have had no direct contact with the player in his career.

Raj: Why do you think Matt Chapman was never mentioned as a top their prospect during his time in the minors? I understand the questions how his hit tool, but wouldn’t his above average glove and power neutralize the concerns about his hit tool?
Keith Law: No, not given the swing and miss rates.

Pat D: I’ve never come closer to telling people I like and respect to fuck off because of one issue than I have in the last week. I’m just so sick of the “evil people are going to do evil things” excuse while the person who says that engages in nothing but fallacies and false equivalences. Time to just cut off contact, right? Also, isn’t it sad to know you’ll never be a great patriot like Wayne LaPierre?
Keith Law: If we can identify evil people so easily, how about we just screen every would-be gun buyer for evil. If you’re evil, you don’t get a gun. Problem solved!

Anthony : Are you finally ready to say that Soroka has a higher ceiling or floor than Allard? You’ve said no to both back in September but now your rankings show different.
Keith Law: How dare I change my opinions on players. In the future, I’ll be sure to keep all rankings perfectly static.

Will in Vero: How did Dallas Baptist get so good?
Keith Law: Recruited very well locally, especially since they announced they were moving up to D1 maybe a decade ago (or longer? jeez).

Patrick: With Solak dealt it came out that the Yankees were pushing him with Frazier in their offer to Pitt for Cole. Do you think those 2 were a better offer than the 4 Pitt ultimately took from Houston?
Keith Law: I do not. I’m not a big Solak fan.

Brian: As a Phillies fan, the plight of Mark Appel and Mickey Moniak has me wondering: when top 5 guys end up being busts is there a commonality in terms of what scouts and people like yourself got wrong pre-draft? Is it about certain tools or focusing too much on one element of the evaluation, etc?
Keith Law: Don’t think you could find two players as different as those two. Moniak seemed at the time and seems still today like a bit of a money-saver option in a draft without a clear 1. Appel was the clear 1 that year, or at worst a great 2, and given what the Astros had available at the time he was a good pick.

Exit Velocity Proves I’m Good : Is there 25+ HR power in Josh Bell?
Keith Law: I believe there is, even without the juiced ball.

Josh in DC: I haven’t read your book, but I will eventually. Do you have any positive thoughts about so-called intangibles (say, leadership ability) in the book?
Keith Law: No, my book focuses on things that actually exist and that we can at least try to measure.

David: Honest question – would you turn down the opportunity to visit President Trump? I’ve thought about this a lot. Does meeting him CHANGE anything (for better or worse)? So would it be all that bad to meet him, just for the experience? Curious to hear your thoughts.
Keith Law: I probably would turn it down. I can’t see any good coming of it.

Chris: I know youre on hiatus from TC, but just a heads up the Volt Bros are on tonight…
Keith Law: Olympics tonight. I don’t control the remote even if I wanted to.

Matt: Keith, it seems like every year there’s a college pitcher I’ve never heard of who starts getting a ton of buzz as a top 5 pick. This year’s model appears to be Shane McLanahan. Aside from being small, what else could keep McLanahan from success in the pros?
Keith Law: I think that’s the biggest knock on him. He’s listed at 165, I think. That’s skinny.

John: I’m not a second amendment guy — in fact, I’ve never touched a gun in my life — but I disagree with you on guns vs. “mental illness.” The Virginia Tech rampage was done entirely with handguns. If there’s someone who has the psychological problems that would lead to one of these shootings, banning assault rifles won’t make a big difference. It would do more good to address the people with psyochotic/antisocial issues. Your point about using too broad a brush on “metal illness” is valid, but it doesn’t follow to ban a type of weapon.
Keith Law: One rampage was done entirely with handguns (can’t a handgun be semi-automatic, BTW? Isn’t that what a Luger of detective novel fame is?) … what about all of the massacres done with AR-15s? No one is claiming we will ever prevent all mass murders. If we can reduce their frequency at minimal cost, then we should do so. As much as I would love to see us improve mental health treatment in this country, that is very, very expensive. Banning weapons designed to kill as many targets as possible in a short period of time is cheap.

Bobbo: thanks for the chats. here’s a two parter: do you tend to veer away from hidden role and deduction games? and if not, are you partial to Deception (a fave of the game group im in)?
Keith Law: I played Deception with some new friends at Gen Con this year and it was fun, but definitely better thanks to the drinks in everyone’s hands. I don’t mind those games at all but they’re more social/party games than strategy games, which is my preference.

Josh in DC: So help me, my kids (8 and 10) like “Life.” Do you have any recommendations of games that are like Life, but not terrible?
Keith Law: Depends on what they like about it. I don’t know any games that try to simulate what (white, suburban, straight, cis) life is like. Do they like that they’re building stuff – like Agricola, where you’re a farmer and have to feed your family and build our your house and raise animals? (It’s also kind of easy in that game to forget to grow enough food to feed your family.)

Jonathan: Would MacKenzie Gore and Logan Allen be enough to pry Kevin Kiermaier away from the Rays?
Keith Law: Yeah, if the Padres are out of their fucking minds.

John: Even if he’s great the next two years, do you think it’s likely that Darvish actually uses his opt out? There is a lot of competition scheduled to be on the free agent market that year (Sale, Bumgarner, & Cole at the top; plus mid-rotation depth like Gray, Porcello, and Pineda, among others).
Keith Law: He could always threaten to use it and try to renegotiate his deal, too.

Dr. Bob: Colby Rasmus just signed with the Orioles. I don’t know if his career would have turned out the same, but I always wonder if TLR’s manhandling him contributed to his downfall. Might be a cautionary tale that you shouldn’t necessarily treat every player the same.
Keith Law: I think the combination of TLR and Rasmus’s father led to his failure to develop.

Todd: Yankees Luis Medina a potential breakout prospect?
Keith Law: He was my potential breakout prospect for the Yankees.

Mike: This isn’t relevant to a sport that you follow, but some Oregon State fans were accused of yelling racial epithets at players from a rival school after a game. What level of punishment to the school do you think can decrease this deplorable behavior? No future home games, tournament bans, something else?
Keith Law: If the school takes action – banning those fans from games, even suspending them – I’d be fine stopping there. You go after the school if it has shown an unwillingness or inability to stop the problem.
Keith Law: Also, what’s worse, Oregon State fans yelling racial epithets, or Oregon State fans giving convicted child molester Luke Heimlich a standing ovation?

RSO: Thoughts on the economy booming right now under Trump? You ever just give him credit or just rip him for every little thing he does like most liberals do?
Keith Law: You dropped your binky. The economy isn’t “booming,” by the way. The stock market is, but that’s not the economy. Q4 GDP growth came in below expectations.

Dennis: Does Nick Tropeano have mid rotation potential or is he a likely back-end guy?
Keith Law: Two pitch guy, most likely a reliever/long man.

Chris: If and when Andujar and Gleyber entrench themselves, should the Yanks trade Wade, Thairo, and Drury if they’d be average regulars for so called second division teams? Understanding depth is important, at some pt it is not a good allocation of resources.
Keith Law: Trade one or two of the three, but not all. Someone has to back those guys (and Didi) up.

Buck: What do you think of Nick Senzel getting a look at shortstop this spring? Any chance he can stick there, at least for a few years?
Keith Law: No. Don’t get it at all – he was a poor defender at SS as an amateur, and worked hard to get to average at 3b.

JR : Who are a person or two on the social/political right that you read and respect their rationality and integrity even if you disagree them?
Keith Law: David French comes to mind. I’m sure he’s written something that would make me tear my hair out, but he’s been one of the most consistently thoughtful, rational writers on the right I’ve seen over the last year.

Pj: Yandy Diaz is an enormous human being with a good swing. Will the power come at some point?
Keith Law: I think there can be average power.

wade: I believe you mentioned previously that you remodeled your kitchen and decided not to do a double oven. What do you do when you need to cook two things at different temps but want them to be done at the same time?
Keith Law: Almost never comes up.

Dave: Curious what your problem with Douthat is – he’s devout and I’m not, but I assume that’s not the issue. At least he’s smarter than their other conservatives.
Keith Law: Literally wrote a piece arguing for rolling back part of the First Amendment.

RSO: I really enjoyed hearing you on the RAB podcast. Do you plan on working with RAB on any future endeavors?
Keith Law: I’ve always enjoyed their work and have said yes whenever I could when they’ve asked me to do their podcast.

jake: so im confused, where was florial actually born?
Keith Law: An excellent question. For folks who missed it, Florial told Randy Miller he was born in the DR. MLB thinks he was born in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and he wore the Haitian flag in the Futures Game last year. Seems like a visa problem waiting to happen, so I’m hoping this is all just a misunderstanding.

Josh in DC: In slamming intangibles as something that doesn’t exist, you also said leadership abilities don’t exist. Look, I’m dubious about most intangibles. But just because something can’t be measured doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
Keith Law: If it can’t be measured, then you can’t rationally price it, and that is functionally equivalent to nonexistent.

Jay: Can we look forward to your thoughts after Ohtani’s mound debut Saturday?
Keith Law: Nope. Not until I see him live. I’ll be on the road Saturday anyway.

Ron: Keith-I have 3 pigs and a bird dog that can fly before Tebow will ever make a MLB player. He’s just taking up vital space for a real minor-leaguer.
Keith Law: I have declined to write further about Tebow for ESPN. It is a traveling circus at this point.

Todd Boss: In response to the person commenting on the Va Tech massacre, Mother Jones’ US Mass Shootings database reports that Seung-Hui Cho used “Two semiautomatic handguns” … fyi.
Keith Law: I thought so. I don’t know guns at all, though. Never even held an unloaded weapon.

David: Khalil Lee and K’s; Is he missing pitches in the zone or chasing bad pitches? From a scouting perspective, is one considered better or easier to fix?
Keith Law: You can’t really strike out that often without a little of both.

Tim: With ballparks in the PCL being such launching pads, would you encourage organizations to adopt the humidors at those stadiums? If so, why haven’t they? Is it the cost?
Keith Law: Might be an approval process here that stymies them. Of course, moving the teams works too.

Matt: Evan McMullin is a decent person too.
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely. He’s a throwback in many ways to a conservative movement/philosophy that has been overtaken by bigotry and denialism.

Trav: Also, re: the economy, I wonder how many giving Donald credit for the current economy were heaping praise on Obama for averting a completely failed economy when he came into office.
Keith Law: None, I’m sure.

B: Could you see Lucas Erceg getting a call up in September? He reminds me of a young Longoria, only left handed. Is that way off base?
Keith Law: Seems aggressive on both fronts. I do like Erceg, but his approach is nowhere near as mature as Longo’s was at that age.

Adam: Charles C.W. Cooke is a solid conservative writer, although you would differ greatly with him on 2A
Keith Law: I’m fine disagreeing with writers on substantive issues. I’m not fine with, say, calling for rolling back 1A when your career depends on 1A for its mere existence. Or with a piece defending a child molester because he hasn’t had enough victims accuse him.

steve: Swihart: Makes Sox roster or sent packing?
Keith Law: Makes it. Highly doubt they give up on him without one more good shot to get him healthy and productive.

Scott : I’m flying from Helsinki to Aruba on Saturday with three kids under the age of 10, can you recommend a place to get a stiff drink?
Keith Law: In Aruba, fortunately, the alcohol flows quite freely everywhere you go. Godspeed.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions and for reading. I’ll be at U Miami Friday and Saturday nights to see Florida’s two big starters, so if any of you head to the stadium (or have food suggestions!) let me know. Fuck yeah, baseball!

My preseason ranking of the top 30 prospects for this year’s draft is now up for Insiders.

Keith Law: Klawchat. You can forget all future plans.

addoeh: “Thoughts & Prayers” isn’t working. Maybe we should try something else.
Keith Law: They’re a renewable resource, though.

Dr. Bob: As Spring Training opens, I expect you to be in the best shape of your life.
Keith Law: I have a cold and I’ve been to the gym twice since New Year’s. So I might be in the worst shape of my life.

Matt: You noted in the draft prospects article its a deep draft, but not top heavy. In your opinion, did the Phillies make a mistake in signing Carlos Santana which caused them to lose their high 2nd rd pick?
Keith Law: I don’t think it was a mistake, but I think it was a cost to consider in the signing.

Davey Boy: Is this a do or die season for Blake Swihart? Can he be a utility type guy at the major league level?
Keith Law: I don’t generally care for the idea of a do-or-die or make-or-break season, and I don’t think it applies to Swihart. If he’s healthy, he will have value. He was a decent infielder in HS – I saw him play third – and I think he’d be able to handle second or third in the majors. Maybe he’s Austin Barnes.

Dan: If you could make a player have one 80 and the rest of his tools 40-50. Which one would you make 80?
Keith Law: If you’re an 80 hitter, nothing else really matters.

Jon: Thoughts on Mike Ford? Does he have a chance to stick with the Mariners all year?
Keith Law: Non prospect. Maybe the final guy on a bench.

Joe: Keith, I feel like Tyler Wade is getting completly overlooked with the Yankees. Would you be confident having him start the season as the starter at second?
Keith Law: He’s getting overlooked? I feel like I’m asked about him constantly – and yes, I think he’s someone’s regular, if perhaps not the Yankees’ because of Andujar and Gleyber.

Doddy King: Texas and Anaheim are both indicating that they are looking at going with six man rotations, with Texas apparently also considering two reliever-to-starter candidates (Bush and Minor) as part of their move. Do you think this is a one- (or two-) off thing, or will more teams explore a six man rotation going forward?
Keith Law: I’m not sure that we know at all if that’ll help reduce pitching injuries, although I’m open to any kind of experiments like this. I do think both of those guys are enormous injury risks as starters, though, and would have kept them in the bullpen.

Dana: Goose Gossage is a jerk, but he seems to have a good point that he was more valuable than most of today’s relievers b/c he pitched multiple innings, right?
Keith Law: Yeah, but he’s right for the wrong reasons. He was more valuable because he threw more innings. He thinks he was more valuable because he did it.

Andy: Why does the government never get anywhere on gun control? If the democrats win Presidency and take control of Congress will something get done?
Keith Law: Money. Why can’t Flint, Michigan get clean drinking water? Money. Why are we still using so much coal despite the pollution it causes? Money. Why doesn’t any government agency do anything to crack down on overprescriptions of opioids? Money. Something like 2/3 of Americans support an assault weapons ban, but the power of money in our system trumps that of the popular vote.

Carlos: Julio Pablo Martinez seems likely to sign with a team at some point. I’ve read he has a good blend of power and speed. Is he a guy to watch? Would he have ranked on your top 100 list if eligible? What are your overall thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Not a top 100 guy. Maxed out, smaller & less athletic than Robert (they played together).

Patrick: My only quibble about these chats, Keith…not knowing the lyric that will lead them off when the queue is posted!
My question–what’s the furthest/most remote you have traveled to see a prospect (HS, Minors, not counting Sidd Finch?)
Keith Law: Jarrod Parker: flew to Chicago, drove 3 hours to Kendallville IN. Braxton Garrett was close: flew to Nashville, drove 2+ to Auburn, AL, then drove 3+ to Atlanta that night (very bad idea).

Tom Hendry: Why do you think so much negative coverage is directed at the free agent player’s camp?
Keith Law: Fans bizarrely support billionaire owners over players, arguing that the latter are “greedy.” (Not too dissimilar from people outside the top tax bracket who argue that the top 1% of income earners should get to keep more of their income, even though it doesn’t help them and may be worse for long-term economic growth.) And the media don’t help by carrying more water for front offices (where they have more sources) than for players/agents.

AJ: Hi Keith. On the whole, I was pretty happy with what Hahn did as far as rebuilding the farm system. The one knock that I did see was that he almost completely gambled on upside and didn’t hedge his bet with any “higher floor” guys. What is your opinion? Also, how soon can you see the ChiSox being a playoff contender? Is 2019 too soon? Thanks.
Keith Law: I think 2020 is more realistic, but if a few of the pitchers come on this year, that would accelerate it. We’ll get a full season of Giolito in the rotation, probably full seasons of Lopez and Fulmer somewhere on the roster (I still think both are more likely relievers), the debut of Kopech, maybe a late late callup for Hansen … that will all go a long way to telling us how far away they are.

Tom Hendry: The Orioles are piling up high with fringe MLB ready catchers. Do they have a growing concern that Chance Sisco cannot catch?
Keith Law: Or maybe Buck has decided he doesn’t like Sisco for some unknown reason? I can think of 20 other teams that would love to take him off Baltimore’s hands.

Dan. : Caden Lemons and Blayne Enlow both look like high upside projection arms from the recent draft. Are they similarly projectable or different in a significant way? If so, how?
Keith Law: Not similar at all; Enlow’s more athletic, better put together, more likely to stay healthy. Lemons had some medical questions post-draft and has more present velocity with less of a breaking ball.

Bored Lawyer, Esq. : Any college series you have your eye on this weekend? Vandy-Duke should be a fun one
Keith Law: Vandy doesn’t have anyone major for this year’s draft, so not that one; I’m hoping to go to the Coastal Carolina tournament but I’ve been sick all week.

DR: As a guy who does a lot to raise the public consciousness on data driven baseball analysis, are there any traits among the recently “woken” smart fans that grate you a bit? For me, rote invocation of WAR as the be all/end all stat gets immediately annoying. Such trait is rather prevalent, I feel.
Keith Law: I think that’s a weak generalization … I see more people complaining that others use WAR as a be-all and end-all than I see actual people using it as such. I’m more bothered by new-stat cherrypicking – hey, we have a new toy, let’s use it to the exclusion of other things we’ve learned or ignore the lack of data telling us how meaningful such a stat is. My favorite was the Mets fan arguing with me that Michael Cuddyer was a good signing because of his exit velocity. That didn’t work out so well.

Rob: It seems obvious to me that public opinion is with ownership over the players on issues of baseball economics. Do you think this is true? How important is it? What kind of PR campaign would it take to equalize matters? I’m not just talking about the slow offseason but about how fans in a number of markets seemed condition to accept what seem to me to be artificial limits on payroll. Sorry for the long question; thanks for the chat.
Keith Law: I’d talk up how rich owners are.

A dude: Can Trammell eventually be a 20 HR guy at the big league level? His ceiling seems a bit unknown, was wondering if that’s because it’s actually that high or due to him having less exposure to the sport than others.
Keith Law: 20 HR seems fair. 30 might be stretching it, ignoring the Reds’ home park and the juiced ball.

Parent trying to learn: Ok keith i need help with this hypothetical. MN arm played at small school. 5’11 215. As a rhp 94-97 fb, 60 curve, 60 slider, 60 change, 30 control, 20 command. Really violent delivery. As a CF 60 hit 70 Power 55/60 run 50 defense in CF 80 arm. Is he a rhp or cf? Where in the draft?
Keith Law: Dude with 20 command is never going to be a major-league pitcher.

Adam: What are your thoughts on Luis Campusano and Blake Hunt, the two Catchers taken by the Padres in the early part of last year’s draft? Neither seem to be appearing on ANY list of Catcher rankings.
Keith Law: Campusano was #17 on my Padres org ranking in a very deep system, so I don’t understand the question. Hunt is much further behind.

Jim876jj: How much has the shine worn off on Meadows? Is it due to the lack of power or frustration with durability/worries he’ll struggle with durability throughout his career?
Keith Law: Doesn’t stay healthy and doesn’t put the ball in the air enough. That’s been a problem for a number of Pirates prospects – he, Hayes, and Newman all show you more power in BP than any have ever shown in games.

James: Hey Keith, any hope that Odor returns to at least being an average player again?
Keith Law: Slim but nonzero.

Andrew: Why is it that in basketball, it’s either you have it or you don’t in terms of work ethic while in baseball, you can learn it overtime (Trevor Rosenthal) for example?
Keith Law: Hm. I feel like there might be some substantial difference between the pools of players under discussion here.

Shonna: My husband and I picked up 7 Ronin after your recommendation. It’s been a staple of our gaming rotation since then, but I was wondering if you and your wife have the same problem we have. Namely that the ninjas win a huge percentage of the time, I get that it’s an assymetric game but any ways to make it a little bit more fair?
Keith Law: We haven’t run into that problem; I think we were close to 50/50 (although we haven’t played it in a while, just because I get so many new games). The ninjas have to win early; it’s a war of attrition for the samurai player.

WarBiscuit: Thoughts on the new minor league team that will be in Madison Alabama? The government is pending approval on the 46 million dollar new stadium. Although I live in Mobile where the Baybears live, the management is very terrible, the stadium is outdated and there is a bunch of infrastructure problems like leaking pipes under the field, which causes rain delays when it rains in the morning, yet sunny in the evening when they have the game, and leaking AC’s, and other stuff that’s too long to mention, so I don’t blame the team for moving out of Mobile where there is little attendance.
Keith Law: It is incredibly stupid to spend public money on sports stadiums for privately-owned teams. But this is Alabama, a state where 1 in 4 residents is functionally illiterate, and that nearly put a pedophile who has openly flouted the Constitution on several occasions into the Senate.

YanksFan: Why do you think Chance Adams ends up as a reliever? He’s succeeded at every level. And keep in mind, you said the same about Severino. Also, have you watched The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel yet???
Keith Law: Keep in mind, I said the same about Dellin Betances. And Adam Warren. And Tyler Thornburg. And by the way Severino was awful in 2016 before he had his one good year as a starter to date. Adams is nothing like Severino beyond their employer; he’s short, doesn’t have a plus pitch, and doesn’t have the command to get away with the stuff he does have turning a lineup over 3x.

Cal: Keith, what would you tell a 22 year old college kid that has no clue what he wants to do career wise? I have interests and while my major interests me, none of the careers within that major peak my interest. When you were in college, did you pick a major because it interested you, or did you pick it because a certain job interested you and to get said job, you needed this major? Parents seem to think money is way more important than doing something I like, which doesn’t help. I’d love to get your take on this, Keith. I’m honestly at a loss here and don’t know what to do/where to go.
Keith Law: I picked a job because everyone else around me was going for the same kind of job and it was very good money for a 21-year-old. I didn’t like the job and floated through a few careers before falling ass-backwards into this one. So my advice probably isn’t going to be very good.

Byron: Have you heard anything from international scouts about Alexander Canario? A lot of stats-only projection systems rate his potential as very high but I don’t think I’ve seen one actual scouting report on him
Keith Law: I would not consider anything a “stats-only projection system” said about a player who has only played in the DSL.

TP: When should we expect an announcement that you have joined the Athletic? In all seriousness, your work is the only reason I still subscribe to insider.
Keith Law: I appreciate that.

Chris: when you evaluate a prospect how much weight is given to his ability to tolerate dry humping?
Keith Law: That Callaway quote was great – especially because he was right, and that alone made him an enormous improvement over Collins.

tyler: You have said that you would vote for Mo for the HOF. Is he really going to be one of the ten best on the ballot?
Keith Law: Yes. Or I wouldn’t vote for him.

Hank: What % chance do you think Derek Hill has to hit well enough to be a big league regular?
Keith Law: 40% chance or more. Doesn’t have to hit that much to be one given his defense.

Grant: Great draft list. Are you attending either the Perfect Game or Under Armour events this year?
Keith Law: I have no idea – those are in July and August and I don’t even have spring training trips booked yet.

Larry: I get you’re not a fan of Singers arm action but doesn’t the upside justify the risk? There are a lot of very successful leaders w slot guys in MLB.
Keith Law: What upside? I saw him 90-91 last April vs Kyle Wright with a flat slider. How many MLB starters have a slot or arm action like his? Sale and … um … let me know.

Noah: What do you think Gleyber Torres’ full time position will be, long term?
Keith Law: In a vacuum, shortstop.
Keith Law: Of course, in a vacuum, he’d be dead.

Patrick: Keith, did you have a favorite baseball player growing up?
Keith Law: Willie Randolph.

Learner: Have you heard of benjamin reinhard class of 2021?
Keith Law: If such a player even exists, I don’t want to hear about him until June of 2020.

Rod: Keith – I know the constant whining on Twitter can get irritating, but what’s with yoir disingenuous “I prefer to get paid for my labor” retort? Tons of writers get paid and their work isn’t behind a paywall. Just be honest, if that’s how you prefer to operate.
Keith Law: Nothing disingenuous about it. What I earn has always been a function of the revenue I generate for my employer. That’s how the world works.

Todd: If healthy, Clarke Schmidt Yankees a legit top of the rotation starter one day?
Keith Law: No.

David : Hi Keith – Theo said after the Cubs signed Morrow they’d treat him like wade Davis (1 inning; come in if warmed up) treatment to keep him healthy. If this contributes to staying healthy (vs a lot of up and downs) why not make this the rule instead of the exception. Perhaps any loss in situational value could be made up in increased effectiveness and health over the course of the season.
Keith Law: I have a hypothesis that it’s less the up-and-downs and more the back-to-back-to-back days that lead to reliever breakdowns. Better to throw 2 innings today and not throw again for 3 days than to throw one inning three days in a row?

Joe: Why does JD Martinez believe he is worth over $20m per season and Hosmer think he deserves 8 years?
Keith Law: Deserves? Or just wants? There’s a difference; the first is a moral question, the latter a negotiating stance.

Jonathan: What would Shane McClanahan have to do this spring to be in the mix for top-5 pick?
Keith Law: He’s in my top 15; that would certainly mean he’s a possibility for the top 5, given how much baseball is left before the draft.

Santos: Fangraphs has Aaron Judge listed as 70 game power and 70 raw power. If he’s not 80, what’s the point?
Keith Law: I would rate his power at 80.

Jeff: The trait among the newly “woke” that bothers me the most is their tendency to act as if they weren’t late to the party when in fact, they arrived after the keg was already dry.
Keith Law: I like that analogy. Better than Prager’s claim on gravity, certainly.

Jonathan: Orioles send Hunter Harvey and 33rd pick in the draft to the Rays in exchange for Jake Odorizzi. Who says “no?”
Keith Law: Doubt the Orioles would do that.

Phil: Which gaming conventions are you planning to attend this year? I was bummed to miss you at PAX Unplugged.
Keith Law: That and Gen Con. Origins never works bc of the draft. Always possible I’ll do something semi-local if my schedule permits but nothing planned yet.

Beau: Read your top 30 this morning: how close is Cadyn Grenier to a 1st rd talent? Does he have any untapped upside?
Keith Law: I think if he hits – if he performs and answers questions about his hit tool – he’ll be a first rounder.

Todd: Did Luis Severino hurt you in some way? You seemingly have hate for the guy, and back in the day, even the 90s, top flight starters used to struggle early, guys like Smoltz were terrible early in their careers. Its ok to admit your wrong Keith
Keith Law: Grow up, Todd. #your

Dr. Bob: The Cardinals signed Mike Maddux to be their pitching coach to go a new direction and away from the Dave Duncan/Derek Liliquist approach. I think it’s a gutsy move, considering their success with pitchers. Do you have an opinion on Maddux?
Keith Law: He hasn’t had a great track record with young pitchers so far, which would concern me given how guys like Flaherty, Weaver, maybe Hudson will all be expected to contribute in St. Louis this year.

AJ: Speaking of Sale, I know when he first came up you weren’t sure of him sticking as a starter because of his arm slot (or maybe I am mis-remembering). What has allowed him (and other lower arm slot starters) to stick? Development of a change up?
Keith Law: Also had a grade 35 slider in college. The White Sox shifted his hand position without truly altering his slot – although it was his delivery with its high elbow in back that bothered me more than just the slot – to allow him to get on top of the ball. Within about 18 months it went from a below-average pitch to a grade 70.

Scott Boras: Can Beer be more than a DH for an American League team?
Keith Law: Probably 1b. Would help his cause if he showed he could play average defense in LF.

Nick: Surprised to see Swaggerty ranked so high. Does he have a high enough upside to be a top 5 pick? Do you see him as a Jacoby Ellsbury type (the good version)?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t have ranked him there if I didn’t think he had that upside. One of the best pure hit tools in the draft with speed and a chance to profile as a good CF.

Jay: Did you play baseball video games growing up? If so, what was your favorite?
Keith Law: Lots of them. MicroLeague, Earl Weaver, Hardball…

Kwame : Is there anything the average fan can take away from spring training or is it all propaganda?
Keith Law: It’s just health. I ignore everything else. Remember the year Andy Oliver set Florida on fire? Gabe Gross hitting 8 HR in Dunedin one spring? Taijuan Walker’s almost-perfect spring training for Seattle? They’re facing inconsistent, uneven competition in scrimmage conditions. It’s not meaningful.

Chris: Why do people get so personally offended by your views on a player like Sevy. Why not just enjoy what he has become if you’re a fan of his? Life’s too short.
Keith Law: I have no idea. This is the one thing that perplexes my wife about my job above all else – why people get so mad (and, often, act so childishly) about baseball opinions.

John: Pretty random request, but is there a book/article you can recommend for me to share with friends/family who don’t see the link between hundreds of years of explicitly racist policy (primarily toward African-Americans) and the gargantuan gap that exists in general/overall equality today?
Keith Law: I didn’t love the documentary The 13th (on Netflix), because I thought it preached to the choir too much and was heavy-handed in a lot of places … but maybe that’s right for your audience.

Joe: Keith, do you have a general stance on manipulating service time for prospects? Is it only worth it for the tippy top guys (Bryant, Gleyber, etc.)? Should it vary by organization?
Keith Law: It is good business and bad for the industry. I would manipulate free agency in most cases, but wouldn’t waste time playing with the super-two date.

Andrew: Seems to me the changes to the draft and ifa’s created this tanking, I’d like to see it go back to being spend what you want. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I would too, but God forbid players get whatever the market will pay them. Especially those pesky non-American players, who earn less than their US/Canadian-born counterparts in the draft.

Chris: I had no idea Lazarito’s natural position was SS. I always assumed he was an OF. Other than the arm, which you mentioned doesn’t play, how does he look there? Does he have the footwork and actions to play there if the arm was stronger?
Keith Law: Played SS before signing, now in LF. Was never going to stay at short.

Brent: Sale was really an odd exception, similar to trying to scout a knuckleballer. His left elbow could contain alien dna, and I wouldn’t be terribly shocked.
Keith Law: I agree, but I’m happy to wear that one as a position I staked out strongly that was 100% wrong. It’ll happen again before I’m done.

Jonathan: Odds that Jorge Soler ever lives up to his potential?
Keith Law: If you tell me he’ll be healthy for a full season, I think he’ll produce like a regular.

JR : Have you played any/all of the Ticket to Ride spinoffs? Do they provide something that different from the original game that justifies the cost?
Keith Law: Europe for sure. They get a bit more involved from there. I have tried England, Nordics, Switzerland, and have the app expansion for Pennsylvania but haven’t tried it yet. I played France at PAX Unplugged with my daughter, and we liked it, but it does make the game longer.

Chris: Man, if people got as heated and passionate about gun reform and control as they did about 16-24 y/o baseball prospects, maybe we could like, I don’t know, do something important and beneficial for our society.
Keith Law: Indeed. Hang on, I’m just going to go play a board game.

Chris J: FYI, there’s a smallish gaming con in Aberdeen the first weekend in March, if you won’t be on the road. (GAD-CON).
Keith Law: (cancels all travel plans for that weekend)

Marshall MN: Is your game closet overflowing at this point? Do you keep all the ones you have played, or if they aren’t any good just give them to someone else?
Keith Law: I have sold a number of the review copies I’ve gotten and donated all of the proceeds to charity – I think I’m over $500 donated now, all to the Food Bank of Delaware or to hurricane relief for Puerto Rico and the USVI. I only have five games on the list for right now, but update it often: https://boardgamegeek.com/geekmarket/user/keithlaw (User pays the sale price + shipping, and then I donate all of that, including the shipping, to charity. So I make no money off this.) I have swapped some other games, donated some to a local school, given some to friends. I clearly have over 100 and I just don’t need that many.

Nordberg: If you could negotiate for the player’s union for the next CBA, what 2 things would you push for the most?
Keith Law: Raise the minimum salary to $1 million. Free agency after four years.

Chas: Have you checked out the Athletic? I like the names they’re bringing in, am fine paying for quality, but worry it’s a front-loaded thing that will get spun off and crack up in a year.
Keith Law: I subscribed the other day. The first piece I read was kind of lousy but I won’t judge them on just one look.

Nick: What type of upside do you project Andres Gimenez to have? Do you think he can be a starting SS and lead off hitter on a first division club?
Keith Law: That’s the hope. Would like to see a full year of progress & performance from him.

Chuck: What the heck are the Orioles doing?
Keith Law: A good question. I wonder if ownership has tied Duquette’s hands. Britton’s injury killed them too.

Patrick: Keith, I look at the improvements someone like Corbin Burnes made in the Brewers minor league system.
Would you avoid having him pitch in Colorado/AAA? Does he have anything left to prove in AA?
Keith Law: I would avoid that. Put him in the major league bullpen as a long reliever to start the year. Their rotation is really weak for a would-be contender anyway, and there will be an opening at some point. I’d rather see him pitch in the majors and struggle while making adjustments than pitching in Colorado Springs and struggle while losing his sanity.

Mr. Athletic: Thanks for the subscription. What other sites have you subscribed to?
Keith Law: I subscribe to the Washington Post & Baseball America. I cancelled my NY Times subscription on Monday after the Bret Stephens “stop smearing Woody Allen” piece. Certainly open to suggestions on worthwhile outlets – I believe in paying for content, obviously.

Andres : Thoughts on the new MGMT or Franz Ferdinand albums?
Keith Law: Never been an MGMT fan. The new FF album is shockingly bad. Thought the latest Wombats album was solid, not as good as Glitterbug. A little disappointed in Dream Wife’s LP. Next album to give some time to is Django Django’s latest.

Bill: Yankees fan here, but to be fair to you I think your concerns about Severino were about the ability for him to make it through multiple seasons given his windup. It’s only been one (very very) good year. I assume at this point, tho, obviously he should be left in rotation
Keith Law: I agree that he should be left there. It was that plus the lack of an average breaking pitch when he was in low-A and AA. He did improve his slider dramatically – I think he’s just throwing everything harder – between 2016 and 2017.

Rick C: Should the Braves just wait a couple weeks to call up Acuna, or wait until they can be sure they’ve passed the point where he’d become a super 2 player?
Keith Law: I think he’s ready, but there isn’t a great argument for bringing him north on Opening Day. So start him in triple-A with the idea – and him aware of this – that he’ll come up by May 1st if he rakes in AAA again. I hate super two manipulation because it assumes that 1) you know where the date will be 2) the process will not change in the interim and 3) the player will never be sent down again.

Harold: I work at an elementary school in a very low income, mostly minority area. We have dozens of strategies that strive to close the achievement gap while helping these kids understand what opportunities are out there for them. No matter what we do or how many grueling hours we spend with these kids, nothing seems to change. For every kid who we can reach and push toward higher achievement, there are dozens who never buy in or who get lost in the morass of their communities. What in the world can we do to get kids out of this cycle of despair?
Keith Law: Efforts to help a smaller number of people tend to be much more successful than similar sized/cost efforts to help a larger number of people in a less significant way. “End world hunger!” makes for good marketing for your charity, but it’s an impossible goal that reduces accountability too. “End hunger in this one village in Niger” is a lot less sexy when soliciting funds, but you have a chance to achieve that goal. It’s feasible. You can come up with plans and timelines that will allow for accountability back to donors and that can be altered on the fly if something isn’t working. And then, if it works, you move on to the next village. You will never, ever fix the problem at your entire school. But if you can take ten of those kids and get them on a path out of the cycle of poverty, then that’s a success, in spite of the kids you weren’t able to help … because you were never going to be able to help all of them anyway. Ten successes is better than none.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat. If I get to Myrtle Beach, I’ll say something on social media so folks can find me there. Thank you all for all of your questions and for reading!

My latest game review for Paste covers Majesty: For the Realm, the newest board game from the designer of Splendor.

Keith Law: I’ve lived a thousand years and it never bothered me. Klawchat.

Bob W.: Curious: for your analyses, do you keep it simple with basic spreadsheet functionality only, or do you also use specialized analytical and statistical packages, as in B-school stats courses?
Keith Law: I don’t use any specialized software; if I had access to Statcast or Trackman data, then I would need to because of the sheer quantity of data involved.

Bill G: Thanks as always for your excellent work on the prospects. I am interested in your take on Jorge Lopez, who made your top 100 2 years ago and now has fallen completely off your lists. Do you believe he has a future in MLB, in what role? Thanks again!
Keith Law: Still think he’s a big league starter, maybe more of a back-end guy than I once believed. He had family issues that probably contributed to his 2016 season – a sick kid, I think? – but also I hope the Brewers learned not to send pitching prospects to Colorado Springs. No good comes of pitching there.

Rob: A couple months back in a chat you said ” I like music that’s interesting, that boasts something like strong melodies, intelligent lyrics, technical proficiency, new sounds or textures.” Have you ever done a deep dive on Regina Spektor? She’s got it all. Her middle albums are especially spectacular.
Keith Law: Deep, no, mostly because I haven’t loved enough of her singles for that. She does write great lyrics, though.

BE: Do you find the “you hate my team” comments more amusing or irritating? As a Tigers fan, its amazing how much negativity I read about you, even though you spent 5 pages of Smart Baseball supporting Tram and Lou.
Keith Law: Any fan, reader, or Twitter follower who accuses me of hating his favorite team is telling me one thing: He’s dumb. (It’s always men, BTW.) It’s truly a lack of intelligence – there’s no way I could do this job effectively if I carried actual biases against any organizations. And now, with nearly 12 years on the job, I have a sufficient body of work to point to positive and negative things I’ve said about every team. A bunch of Padre man-babies got all mad online because I said, repeatedly, that Trevor 28 WAR Hoffman was not worthy of being a Hall of Famer, and many accused me of anti-Padre bias, which 1) is silly as I’ve praised their farm system incessantly for two-plus years and 2) who the fuck would even bother to hate the Padres?
Keith Law: Ah, that felt good.

Thomas: Assuming he’s their starting third baseman, what should Tigers fans realistically expect from Jeimer Candelario this season?
Keith Law: High average, mediocre OBP, more doubles than homers, below average defense. Dude can put the bat on the ball, though.

Greg: Hi Keith,
Would be interested what players you would have on top of a list of hitters with the highest ceiling at least 2 plus years away from the majors. Yasel Antuna? R Rojas? Gabriel Arias?
Thanks for your work, only reason I just renewed insider.
Keith Law: That list would be dominated by guys on my top 100, though. You’re looking for deeper names than that, for which I’d suggest looking at the Sleeper I listed for each org. Those are usually players 2+ years away with big upsides; if I list someone closer, or with a more modest ceiling, it’s because the org is devoid of the type of player I’d prefer.

Greg: Which player would you Wander to if you had a choice?
Keith Law: Greg, even if I Wander, I’m keeping you in sight.

Rocky Mountain High: Whom do you expect to give more of a push to Arrenaudo in the future, Welker or Vilade? Not saying they take the job from him, but the guy that gives management thought about the next Rockies 3B.
Keith Law: Vilade. He might be a stud. Team USA staff loved him as a player and a person. I have generally gotten negative enough reports on Welker’s defense to think he at least has a chance to move off that position.

Scott : With the Mets making every possible roster move to banish the newly sculpted Dominic Smith to Vegas where he has already proven he can rake (and get himself out of shape), if you were running a rebuilding team would you be aggressive and make them an offer they can’t refuse?
Keith Law: Yes. I think he’s an obvious guy to target.

Dana: Would you hit Judge/Stanton/Sanchez 2-3-4 or break them up somehow with a lefty?
Keith Law: I think inserting a LHB for its own sake just ends up costing a better hitter at bats. If they were L-L-L, that would be a different story.

Kyle Tucker: Am I on the opening roster or do I come up in June? What should Astro fans expect of me ?
Keith Law: I would be surprised if you were up before September.

Philadelphia resident : Can you explain why people ruin their cities when they win a championship ?
Keith Law: Or when they lose. That’s the part I don’t get – they were going to riot and burn the city down either way. Oh, excuse me, they were going to overzealously celebrate the city down. We only call it a “riot” when it’s people of color.

Ben: Headed to Chicago in a couple weeks to see NGHFB. Any must-hit spots for food that one person can get into on short notice? Or any Chicago pizza recommendations?
Keith Law: New Girls Hit the Fuckin’ Block? Monteverde is my favorite restaurant in Chicago. Publican & their lunch offshoot are great. Any Rick Bayless place (Frontera is the flagship) will be excellent. They don’t serve pizza in Chicago – they serve bread with stuff on it.

Archie: I get the frustration of agents, however, how many of them would buy a Camry today because that is all they could afford without going into debt, instead of waiting until next year when they can buy a Ferrari with cash?
Keith Law: You have kind of hinted at the principal-agent problem, though.

Chris: Can the Mets get anything for Nimmo or Cecchini? I don’t see how their values improve with glut of players in majors at their positions for Mets.
Keith Law: Maybe a comparable fringe big leaguer – trade one of them for a useful bullpen piece or fifth starter?

Logic: I think the sports media is missing the actual dynamics of this years free agent market. If there is collusion, it’s with the agents not the owners. Agents, primarily Scott Boras have decided to let their players sit if they don’t get their customary irrational owner driven contracts. In addition, by doing this they can suggest collusion by owners due to the inactivity the agents are creating. Quite smart. Your thoughts
Keith Law: Disagree. Agents do talk – they’re allowed to – but I don’t think there’s this grand conspiracy either.

Evan: What do you think of the Todd Frazier deal?
Keith Law: Yawn. Really didn’t make much sense for the Mets, unless they just wanted to find another way to limit Dom’s playing time. And I don’t think Frazier’s one-year walk-rate spike is sustainable.

Amy: If the redsox sign JDM, when Pedroia is out, would it make sense to play JDM is LF, Benintendi in right (or center), and Mookie at 2nd? Hanley DH.
Keith Law: I legit thought you were going to suggest playing JDM at second. I may need some caffeine. (Also, Brock Holt probably ends up on the field somewhere there.)

Aaron C.: With the release of PECOTA projections this week, I have a *general* question: How should fans view projections? “For entertainment purposes only” or is there some underlying value for fans and/or analysts such as yourself?
Keith Law: Projections come with error bars, and PECOTA has long been explicit about things like best- or worst-case scenarios – here’s a stat line for this player that would be in the top 10% of outcomes for him, so it’s not likely, but an analysis of his past performance, physical details, and whatever other inputs they use says this is possible.

Gregory: Any suggestions on what to look for in a pressure cooker and in a kitchen scale (for cooking, coffee)?
Keith Law: My pressure cooker is nothing fancy – stovetop model, old-fashioned. I own two kitchen scales – one for larger measurements, and this smaller one for more precise measurements where a gram either way might matter (coffee grounds, yeast for baking): http://amzn.to/2siE8Ya

Aaron C.: With the Padres’ prospects pail overflowing, are there decent odds that you’ll be making a trip to Lake Elsinore this year (where I can get my copies of “Smart Baseball” and Warren G’s debut album signed?
Keith Law: Probably not. That’s a cross-country trip now and I don’t generally do those for pro prospects. I’ll see some of their top guys in Peoria next month.

JJ: Keith, you seem bullish on the Red Sox’ Jason Groom, ranking him as your #30 prospect. However, the Red Sox have done a pretty lousy job in recent years when it comes to developing starting pitchers (where have you gone, Trey Ball?) — does that organizational weakness affect your view/ranking of Groome at all?
Keith Law: I say at the top of the rankings every year that they are team-agnostic. Any player can be traded at any time, and his ranking would not change. BTW, Ball’s issue wasn’t really on player development; he was projectable at 18 and just never got any extra velocity.

JJ: Like you, I’m not thrilled with the idea of Trevor Hoffman in the HOF, but that’s a moot point now. Mariano will undoubtedly coast in on his first ballot next year, but after that, who’s the next reliever to get in? Lee Smith, via Veterans’ Committee? Craig Kimbrel?
Keith Law: I am not supporting this in any way, shape, or form, but K-Rod has a pretty good case with Hoffman in, and so will Joe Nathan. Even if K-Rod doesn’t pitch again this year, he’ll still be 4th all time in saves, and we heard ad nauseum how impressive it was that Hoffman was 2nd. There’s a difference of about 100 IP and 4 WAR between Hoffman and K-Rod right now. I would never, ever vote for Rodriguez, but his argument became plausible with Hoffman in.

Dan: Pirates made some retooling type trades instead of reloads, but there doesn’t seem to be enough talent in place to compete in the short or medium term. What do you think? I feel like they’re counting on more guys stepping up than is reasonable to assume.
Keith Law: I felt like they went more towards rebuild, but the two guys they traded were seen as flawed assets in the market.

Ben: When you’re on the road and eating on your own do you make a reservation or just try to walk-in places? I always wonder how you get into all the best spots!
Keith Law: I walk in and tell the maitre d’, “Do you know who I am?” Then s/he usually says, “Do you know who *I* am?” and I ask meekly if there’s a seat at the bar.

Rex: Hey Keith, thanks for doing this chat. To what degree do you consider the federal deficit to be a problem? If you could decide how to address, what are some measures you’d take?
Keith Law: The growth of the deficit is a major problem, but a truly balanced budget is both unrealistic and perhaps a poor policy decision anyway. Eventually, however, we will lose some of our seemingly infinite borrowing power.
Keith Law: And that could have all sorts of nasty consequences, including stagflation or economic contraction.

Tony: Do you think Andujar will be good enough to prevent the Yanks from going after Machado next year?
Keith Law: I love Andujar, but he’s not Machado good.

Adam: If you did a Top 150, which team do you think would have the most prospects on the list?
Keith Law: Atlanta had the most on my top 100; I would not give a different answer here without doing the entire exercise.

David: Does any data exist indicating the value of splitting up handedness of a starting rotation or is any perceived benefit strictly anecdotal?
Keith Law: Anecdotal. And likely bunk.

Noah: Will there be a strike? Feels like there is so much momentum towards one
Keith Law: They just signed a new CBA a year ago. There isn’t going to be a strike until that’s over.

DealsDealsDeals: What are Blue Jays fans to make of Danny Jansen? Being anointed the Jay’s Catcher of the Future is a lot like being Spinal Tap’s drummer.
Keith Law: Good chance he really is their catcher of the future, everyday guy with more bat than defensive skills, biggest flaw has been trouble staying healthy (at a position not conducive to keeping oneself off the DL).

Andy: Say you’re given the power to fix baseball. You can’t abolish the draft, get rid of commercials, or fire any owners into the sun. What actual changes can be made to even out the power dynamic between players and owners or improve the game? Is it as simple as just calling a better strike zone, granting free agency earlier, and getting rid of spending caps?
Keith Law: Still think you can reduce the time required for pitching changes, perhaps running ads on the screen without breaking completely for commercials. Players used to fight for earlier arbitration and/or free agency, but seem to have dropped or deprioritized that in this last round. Perhaps that was their big mistake.

John: I recently finished your book, and enjoyed it very much. Question – if statcast allows us to measure how far a player travels from crack of the bat until the out, wouldn’t that fail to capture a Ripken-style skill?
Keith Law: I’m not sure what the skill here is.

Nick: Hey Keith, I really enjoyed the new prospect coverage. I’m curios about a guy I did not see on there…what are your thoughts on Rays catcher Ronaldo Hernandez? What’s the upside? Is there breakout potential?
Keith Law: He’s outside of their top 20. One of many interesting, check-back-in-a-year types, but not someone I would tab as a breakout candidate or that the org themselves pushed as a top 15-20 guy. (I talk to people from every club to get their own thoughts and sometimes internal rankings of players.)

john w: i know you don’t compare your lists to that of competitors (and that is totally fine and understandable!). but i was wondering what your thoughts on the value of computer-driven prospect lists, like dan’s at espn. not asking you to attack him or anything, just wondering how you see a list like that and what you take from it. thanks for all the great stuff.
Keith Law: I think they’re useful because they’re different.

Jay: based on what you saw last year is Miguel Cabrera done or was he injured?
Keith Law: Probably hurt.

Jimmy: Cubs win Central fairly easily this year?
Keith Law: No, Jimmy from Chicago

Erich: I am curious as to your position on meat consumption and big business agriculture in the world. We could make as big of an impact regarding climate change and emissions by changing the way we eat compared to changing our energy and transportation, yet we only ever hear about the energy/transportation. This isn’t even considering the rain forest destruction. Why do you think this is? Would it be viewed as an attack on farmers if someone said “we need to eat less meat and dairy to help sustainability feed a planet that will soon have 10 billion people?”
Keith Law: That might be the most unrealistic proposal of all. If we solve our climate change problems, and there’s a damn good chance we don’t, it’s not going to come from convincing 2-3 billion people who are accustomed to eating meat once or twice a day to give it up while also convincing another 2-3 billion people who rarely eat meat but view it as a symbol of wealth or prosperity that they didn’t really want it after all.

Tyler: What would you say is the breakdown of how you get evalutations players? e.g. 50% in person, 30% talking with other evaluators, 20% stats/metrics? Apologies if you’ve given this breakdown before.
Keith Law: There is no answer to that. It differs for each player.

Jaipur rules: Rather than a six year $150 million offer to Darvish/Arrieta do you think someone like the Cubs should look into trading a decent prospect to the Dbacks and take on Greinke and say 75% of his remaining contract? Arizona could potentially resign JD then. Not sure how much Greinke has left in the tank.
Keith Law: If the Dbacks want to contend again this year, they have to keep Greinke. I don’t see them being competitive without him, because any trade would likely be one to shed his salary rather than bringing back talent.

Jesse: Your thoughts on the game Broom Service? I love the cowardly/brave mechanic but it has never gone over well when I bring it out on a games night.
Keith Law: I think it’s fun and very clever, but we find its length is a little tough for weeknight play.

Sparhawk: What does Joey Wentz need to do in order to establish himself as one of the best LHP prospects?
Keith Law: He made my top 100. He’s already one of the best LHP prospects.

mike sixel: I understand that long term deals stink at the end, generally, but they are often good for the team at the beginning…..from a $/WAR stance. If teams are really going to balk at long term deals, which we’ll see probably isn’t true still this spring and next year, won’t they almost “have” to pay more on an AAV basis? If I was an agent, that would be my argument.
Keith Law: The $/WAR stuff is so overblown – getting a ‘good deal’ is nice, but if your team isn’t in a position to capitalize on those marginal wins, then … you got a nice deal, congrats? If I were running a team within range of a wild-card spot or division title, I’d be less concerned about getting the most efficient deal specifically and more about getting the marginal wins I need to get into the playoffs. So I’d be fine overpaying on an AAV basis – and if anything I’d overpay in the short-term to try to get one or two fewer years at the end of the contract, when, as you said, most of them have long gone bad.

Andrew: Can you explain what is meant when a pitcher is described as athletic?
Keith Law: It means he’s a good athlete. I am a bit befuddled by your question. There’s no secondary connotation here – some pitchers are good athletes, some are not. I like good athletes in general because I think they can repeat their mechanics and have more physical potential to make adjustments.

JJ: You’re understandably down on Ray and Rutherford”s prospectness. What do you think they need to do to get back on course/do you think they can make those corrections?
Keith Law: Ray needs a stance/setup overhaul. Rutherford just didn’t impact the ball at all last year. Not sure how to fix that one.

Kay: Frazier at $8.5 million is a steal right? The average has to come up some and he seems to have no other obvious flaws as a player.
Keith Law: Why does the average “have to come up some?” He didn’t hit for average at all in 2016 and was only a little better in 2014. I think there’s a good chance he’s just a sub-.240 hitter now.

Tyler: I’ve been wanting to get into board games for quite awhile and finally convinced my friend group to try Catan. We all loved it! I know you put out your list of top board games, but what are 2-3 other “beginner” games like Catan?
Keith Law: Carcassonne, Splendor, Ticket to Ride are all good ‘gateway’ games that still hold up even though I’ve probably played 200+ other games since I got into the hobby.

Eric: Keith, loyal insider subscriber here. I know the draft is far off and nobody knows this but do you think Nolan Gorman makes it to the Padres pick at 7? I would love to see them add another impact bat to go with all of the developing arms. Thanks for all your work.
Keith Law: He’s a great prospect but nobody has any idea where players are going.

Tom: Assuming Moniak returns to Lakewood, would you advance Haseley to keep him in CF?
Keith Law: I would, but I don’t know if Moniak is returning to Lakewood. I think it would help him, and keep Haseley on track, and if Haseley rakes in Clearwater you just move them both up.

Tom: Have you used Chris Bianco’s cookbook? Do you have any thoughts on it?
Keith Law: I own it – I received an advance copy from the publisher – and it’s beautiful with some very fun writing (if you’ve ever heard Chris talk, you can ‘hear’ him while you read it), but the non-pizza recipes have not worked out well for me at all. I don’t think they were sufficiently tested.

Chris: Vimael Machin, SS in the Cubs’ system, is he anything more than just an org guy?
Keith Law: He’s not a shortstop – only played 6 games at short last year – and was 23 in low-A. Just an org guy.

Darren: Hello Keith,
Sorry to hear you and your daughter had to quit red meat, but hopefully you will be better for it. My wife and I stopped eating meat months ago and now we are both off medications, lost weight without trying, have less pain and just feel better in every way. I found quitting meat was much easier than I expected. For people that have time to cook and prepare good healthy food it is well worth it. As for money, you may spend more on healthy food but we save money and time on medication and doctor visits. Best decision I ever made, even better than getting Acuna for a buck last year in my roto league.
Keith Law: We couldn’t trace eating beef (which is what we gave up, not all red meat) to any specific medical issues, but given our metabolic disorder, it seemed worth trying to see if our shared sense that we felt lousy after eating it was real and not just psychosomatic (or guilt-induced). I miss it sometimes, but less than I expected. Mostly when I go to Shake Shack.

Drew: If the Twins were to opt for a trade as a way to get SP help would a Kepler/Gordon package for Archer be enough and/or a good use of their resources?
Keith Law: My guess is the Rays would insist on more, probably Romero too. Although Gordon fits the Rays’ m.o. of acquiring shortstops who don’t project to stay at shortstop.

Eric: Tirson Ornelas turns 18 in March and he would likely be a high school senior if he had grown up in America. If he was in this year’s draft class, how would he stack up against this year’s class and what round do you think he would go in?
Keith Law: First rounder. Billy McKinney was a first-rounder even though he was a fringy runner limited to LF, because everyone loved his swing. Ornelas can play RF and has more pop, plus one of my favorite swings in the minors.

Darren: How would you rank?
Brent Rooker Peter Alonso Lewin Diaz
Keith Law: Just like that.

Benjy: For someone who says they weren’t going to watch the Super Bowl, you sure had a bunch of tweets about it.
Keith Law: Virtually none of which were about the game, Lassie. And my wife wanted the game on; I don’t dictate what other family members get to watch just because I might prefer something else.

Justin R: Is it fair to say regardless of how free agency shakes out that the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Nationals, Cubs, and Dodgers are playoff locks for 2018?
Keith Law: Anyone discussing “playoff locks” right now is probably asking for fate to prove them very, very wrong. If you give me that prop bet on those seven teams making the playoffs I will gladly take the other side of it.

Moltar: I know you’re “out” on the show but I miss your top chef recaps.
Keith Law: Thank you – I appreciate the kind words from folks who say they miss them, but I do not miss losing the 2-3 hours a week those posts required.

Darren: Hey Keith,
Thoughts on Richard Urena? Even if Tulo wasn’t signed into the next millennium do you see him being a starting SS? Thanks.
Keith Law: He’s in my Blue Jays org report. Plenty of detail there.

Karolyn: If you were Theo, what would you offer Darvish or Jake? At some point they are going to have to accept a 3-4 year deal, right?
Keith Law: I would take either guy on a 4-year deal; I wonder if GMs are holding especially firm on pitcher contracts because there’s been such a bad history of longer deals, and everyone has known this for a while now, but there would always be one or two GMs (or owners) who would come and Leeroy Jenkins the whole market by saying “SEVEN YEEEEEEEEEARS!”

JD: A number of evaluators, including yourself, have tagged Forrest Whitley’s weight at 240. About a month ago he tweeted that he hadn’t been 240 in years and was 195. Because his size and conditioning has been part of the discussion of him as a prospect, does it make a difference? If he’s 195 does that mean he’s taking conditioning seriously? Or does it just take forever to recalibrate when a player loses weight. Joe Musgrove is still listed at the 265 he was when i saw him in short season A but clearly changed his body which made a big difference when he started rising up the Astros system.
Keith Law: I go with official heights and weights from the teams themselves. As long as Whitley is in good shape, I don’t really care if he’s 195 or 235. He’s 6’7″; “fat” for him is going to be a bigger number.

Jeff: Agents never dump clients. What did Puig do?
Keith Law: Nothing would surprise me with that guy. The rumors have been … hard to believe over the years.

Azam Farooqui: Have you read Nicholas Taleb’s tweet’s about skin in the game? He seems to be very critical of academics, do you have any thoughts?
Keith Law: Taleb the Assad-supporting, pseudoscience-touting racist? Yeah, hard pass on that one. I don’t follow him. It’s a shame, as The Black Swan was an entertaining read.

TJ: How was no one able to beat 2 for 17 for the Toddfather? Do you think the Yankees will seriously roll the dice with Andujar?
Keith Law: No one wanted to beat 2 for 17, understandably so given his low batting averages and age.

Eric: So the Braves didn’t trade their upper level SP depth again this offseason. At what point have they missed the opportunity and some of these arms will blow out or lose value?
Keith Law: I think some of them would gain value if they got closer to the majors/pitched better in the majors.

Justin: Klaw,

Non-spoiler Top Chef note. On an episode last week they highlighted a chef that kept “charged” crystals in his pockets as an energy source. It’s not bad enough that people actually believe this crap but they have to include it in an episode so some people can just accept this as fact?
Keith Law: I have heard – but not seen – that this season also featured that Youtube clown Logan Paul as a guest judge, and that one episode featured nachos as a winning dish. I feel like I might have picked a good season to skip.

John Liotta: What are the most well-known books/authors that you have yet to read? I would guess, based on comments over the years, one would be Ayn Rand (good choice). Beyond a reading challenge, what will eventually compel you to finally breakdown and read any of these?
Keith Law: Never read Rand, never will. Never read any Stephen King, either. Some famous novels I haven’t read: David Copperfield, Daniel Deronda, Clarissa, Pilgrim’s Progress, The Plague, Finnegan’s Wake. Probably more non-fiction classics I haven’t read, especially those that tend toward academic/reference work rather than narrative style.

TJ: You have been very open on your support for board games – are you a chess player at all?
Keith Law: I know how to play, but I play it very poorly.

Jay: Enjoyed your book! I’ve always been a stats person but was able to see things in a different perspective. Do you see Michael A. Taylor as a legit RF option for 2-3 years if Bryce leaves and they keep Soto? The defense could be incredible with Robles in CF and Eaton in LF.
Keith Law: Don’t think MAT has the OBP skills for RF. Agreed on defense, though.

John: In years past, I would try to measure who was the best defensive CF in the game, and it would vary from stat to stat. This past year, it kinda looks like Buxton stands out above all of them. Is that your assessment?
Keith Law: Yes, I think he’s the best. An 80 defender, 80 runner, huge arm strength, and not bad at the plate.

John S: it seems that if Franchy Cordero resolves his contact/pitch recognition skills he should be an above-average regular. not that the development is likely, but where do you think the experiment should take place SD or El Paso? it’s not as if the Padres are harming their chances of winning by playing him every day in LF.
Keith Law: I agree it’s unlikely, but I’m hoping he becomes part of that outfield rotation this year. El Paso probably won’t do much to advance his approach.

Yinka Double Dare: You must hate my team, I didn’t see a top 10 prospects for Mystery Team.
Keith Law: They wouldn’t take my calls.

TomahawkCruiseMissile: Does Rhys Hoskins have a chance to be as good of a LF as Kyle Schwarber?
Keith Law: I would say yes. Low bar, though.

Rick C: There’s some video on Twitter of Kyle Muller hitting 95mph off the mound, working with Driveline Baseball. Do you have any concerns with pitchers putting in the type of offseason work they might be doing?
Keith Law: I don’t have enough information or knowledge to be concerned. I know Driveline has posted videos of guys throwing very hard but in non-baseball conditions (different ball, for example).

sage: Most racist city you’ve personally visited?
Keith Law: Tough to say with visits, but I spent two academic years in Pittsburgh in the late 1990s and was floored by how segregated the city is and by the casual if subtle racism of the residents I encountered. There was no chance I was staying there after graduating – too grey, really – but that did not help.

Dr. Bob: Don’t know if you saw this, but I loved Derrick Goold’s simple answer to the question as to why the FA market is so slow: “Math.”
Keith Law: He’s not wrong.

Jshep12: Do you watch any college baseball? If so what are your thoughts on their continued use of metal bats? Is it just to expensive for them to use wooden bats or is the skill level there just not high enough?
Keith Law: That’s part of my job, yes. The bat manufacturers make sure the colleges use metal bats, even though wood bats would improve the product and help players get ready for pro ball.

Danny: Do you expect the Yankees to move Loasigia somewhat aggressively through the system (AA ball by season’s end?) because he’s already on the 40 man and does that necesitate a move to the bullpen?
Keith Law: Yes to the former, no to the latter. Starter potential there. You have three years before he has to be on the 25-man, and that should be plenty of time.

John S: any interest in going to Monterrey to see the Dodgers – Padres series? I feel like I’m the only one going which makes me wonder about the site selection.
Keith Law: In theory, sure, although it’s probably outside the scope of my job. If they play overseas again, I’d be more interested because I think there are non-baseball angles to cover.

Kay: Is is odd that I’m kind of encouraged by the raw talent in the Mets minors still? Desmond Lindsay and Justin Dunn are still young, raw, talented prospects who had rough years. Szapucki coming back from TJ, three legit LHP starter prospects…and a high pick this year. Not so bad
Keith Law: It’s just not that bad a system if they get everyone healthy. Lindsay had a vision issue, and then got hurt about six weeks after he got new goggles and started hitting. Considering how little they’ve gotten back in trades, I think the system is fine. They could just use some better luck this year – them and Colorado, who also had a ridiculous year of dudes getting hurt.

SJ: Do you see Zach Granite ever hitting enough to be a starter? If so, is his ceiling Kevin Pillar or more Kiermaier/someone else?
Keith Law: I don’t.

Joey Bagodonuts: Will you be doing a writeup of the Lincecum showcase? Seriously, though, if his velocity is back in the low 90s, he can be a decent pen option, can’t he? As long as he doesn’t face anyone more than once?
Keith Law: Sure, but I’d be shocked if he were throwing that hard.

SJ: Seems like Amir Garrett’s rough 2017 is attributed to pitching through a hip injury. If he’s healthy, how do you see him performing going forward?
Keith Law: Very good reliever potential, fourth starter-ish if he stays in the rotation.

John: Suppose Edgar and Trammell get into the Hall. Who do you suppose is the next cause celebre for the analytically minded?
Keith Law: Trammell’s in. Whitaker for the Vets committee clownshow, Mussina for the BBWAA.

SJ: Do you think Teoscar Hernandez ends up outplaying Grichuk/Granderson/etc to take a starting job at some point this year?
Keith Law: I think he has the best chance to become a full-time OF of that group.

Germolene: Following up on the Bayless eateries, were you able to try Frontera Cocina at Disney? We went last year, and it was amazing.
Keith Law: Yes, limited menu compared to Chicago but everything was excellent. Went twice. Even the margaritas were excellent and that’s not usually my drink of choice.

Jebby: As a vet, the worst thing about dog-and-ponies like parades is the opportunity cost. Even ignoring the explicit $ cost, all of the time sucked away from training and put toward rehearsals, inspections, and meetings…great way to convince airmen/marines/soldiers/sailors that the mission is secondary.
Keith Law: I would have given the same answer six months ago, but after reading The Body Keeps the Score, I’m even more incensed at how poorly we treat veterans who come home with PTSD. Trauma physically alters the brain. We asked these kids to go overseas and we owe them every possible medical resource to help them recover from the trauma to which they were exposed. You can keep your jingoistic, Leni Riefenstahl-inspired pomp and circumstance. I say put the same funds into training and deploying mental health specialists here for the veterans and around the world for soldiers on assignment.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all as always for all of your questions. Sorry I didn’t get to more of them. I’m starting some early draft work, including a top 30 ranking for some time in the next two weeks, and of course will be busy cranking through Oscar nominated films before the awards next month. I should be back for another chat next Thursday as well. Enjoy your weekends!

My National League org reports and top tens are all up now for Insiders, by division: West, Central, and East.

Keith Law: High on diesel gasoline … it’s Klawchat.

Mike: May have missed it, but haven’t seen your thoughts on Greene/Leone for Grichuk.
Keith Law: Didn’t write it up, too minor, discussed in last week’s chat. Greene is now in the Cardinals’ org report, which went up yesterday. Grichuk has been sunk by OBP problems dating back to when he was drafted.

Troy: Thoughts on what the Brewers have done? Will they add another SP and should they?
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re serious division contenders unless they add a real SP. And I don’t understand making those two big moves without addressing the rotation.

Deke: 15 years down the road, how will we look at the 2017-18 offseason? A blip, a new normal, or an impetus for systemic change?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a blip that led to a change in players’ attitudes towards CBA negotiations, after a round where they fought for quality of life improvements and ceded ground on more substantial issues.

Marshall MN: Klaw, last week you gave a pretty quick reply to a question about whether Stephen Gonsalves was considered as a Top 100 prospect. I realize that I am scouting the stat line some (that is all I CAN do afterall), but what did you hear this year as compared to last year when he did make the Top 100? Also…thank you!
Keith Law: Same guy he was a year ago, still doesn’t have the average breaking ball to make him more than a back end starter.

Jon Weisman: How many Padres prospects would be good enough to be in the Giants top 10?
Keith Law: If I combined the two lists, it would start with 7 Padres, then Ramos, then 2 more Padres.

Tom Hendry: I read somewhere that the Orioles consider Cameron Bishop off limits in trades. Has he really catapulted from being selected in the 27th or so round to being a top end prospect in the organization? Do you have thoughts on him?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard that he’s off limits, just that other teams have asked for him.
Keith Law: He’s in the O’s top ten, which will be up tomorrow.

WarBiscuit: Thoughts on the federal prosecution dropping all charges on Senator Menendez? Also thoughts on the Memo release?
Keith Law: I haven’t followed the Menendez case very closely, but I don’t care what party a politician is from – if he’s corrupt, he’s corrupt, get him out of there. As for the “Memo,” nothing the current Republican party surprises me any more.

Mike: With the current baseball economic system, can small market teams successfully stay competitive continually (like the Pirates ‘quick reload’ trades) or is it smarter to fully tank for a few years, take advantage of draft picks and the international system and then really go for it for a few years.
Keith Law: I think it depends on what your goal is. Are you trying to make money, to be competitive, to win a World Series? If the goal is a championship, then you probably need to sell off your older/more expensive major-league players for high-end prospects. You can’t really stock a system strictly through the draft; the Cubs landed Arrieta and Hendricks in dump trades, and the Astros did even more.

Chuck: Any idea why the A’s wanted Buchter? Is it his fly-ball proclivity and Oakland’s big park?
Keith Law: That’s a philosophy the A’s have followed for years.

Dana: Should the Yankees just go with Gleyber and Andujar at 2B/3B or bring in a veteran or two?
Keith Law: I’d definitely let Andujar start the year at 3b, but Gleyber hasn’t hit since June and may need some AAA time before he comes to the majors.

Josh: Looking forward with graduations, Do you see the top 3 after this season being Vlad Jr, Bo, and Tatis Jr?
Keith Law: Give me one guess as to your favorite team.

Robert: Do you think Soroka or Allard will debut with Atlanta this year? Also, who has the higher ceiling in your opinion?
Keith Law: Soroka more likely. Neither is a high-ceiling guy; Allard’s curveball is the best pitcher either guy has.

Dave: Is it too soon to assess how good the top of the draft is this year? If not, what type of player are the Tigers likely to get at 1-1– generational talent/All Star/solid regular/tall righty with a fastball?
Keith Law: There is no generational talent in this class but a lot of players who look like above-average regulars. It’s a good draft.

Zirinsky: Hi Keith. Will you be watching the super bowl and, if so, what will you be cooking?
Keith Law: The Super Bowl may be on the television, but I won’t really be watching it. I just don’t care.

Charlie: If you were the Nats, what prospects would you be willing to give up to get Realmuto? Robles? Soto?
Keith Law: Soto & Kieboom would be a great return for Miami, but I also think that’s fair given Realmuto’s age, cost, and production.

Jared: Going back to your Brewers answer, do you think getting a top of rotation pitcher is realistic for Milwaukee?
Keith Law: Who? Darvish isn’t that. Arrieta isn’t that. Not sure who they could get.

Guest: Have you tried out Gloomhaven, are you a fan of big 4X boardgames like it?
Keith Law: No. That’s not a board game. It’s an RPG in a board game box. Given its length, physical weight (20 lbs!), and cost ($120, I think), that’s just not a board game by my definition.

dan: do you agree with the blue jays prospects being ranked 7th?
Keith Law: I ranked them 17th.

Matt: Manny Machado to shortstop. Big deal?
Keith Law: I think he can still play it, and it certainly helps his value this winter.

Cleveland Kyle: Is Lazarito the next import to go from raw tools to top perspectice ala Robles?
Keith Law: I highly doubt it. He’s not a “raw tools” guy; he’s already in LF because he can’t throw well enough for anywhere else and doesn’t run enough for CF.

DJ: Does Taylor Hearn have enough secondary stuff to make it as a starter if control improves?
Keith Law: Very unlikely.

Rich: #BellLetsTalk. Let’s get the word out, Keith. No one should be ashamed to ask for help!
Keith Law: I’m not participating; that program has lacked oversight in the past, funneling money for a few years to a clinic that tried to talk trans kids out of being transgender. Hard pass.

Big Time Timmy Jim: hey klaw, thanks for all the hard work for the prospect rollout. I’m concerned Jose Siri is just the next Aquino – loud tools but an approach that just wont cut it in upper levels. Are my concerns valid or is Siri better equipped w/ his approach because he can play CF?
Keith Law: No, your concerns are valid. He swings and misses a ton, and he wasn’t young for low-A. He has to improve his approach AND move up two levels this year to be even a consideration for the top 100.

Jim Nantz: Is Brandon Nimmo worth holding onto for the Mets? Lots of trade buzz surrounding him. I think last year you thought of him as more of a 4th OF.
Keith Law: That’s almost certainly all he is. Between knee issues and platoon splits, he doesn’t seem like a starter.

Josh: Odds after this season Tatis Jr is seen unanimously as the superior SS prospect over Gleyber?
Keith Law: Not good, because Gleyber is absolutely a SS, while Tatis still may outgrow the position.

Freddy: If Alex Jackson can’t stick behind the plate, is the bat enough to be an every day corner OF?
Keith Law: Not yet, but the bat already improved a ton since Atlanta acquired him, so perhaps there is more improvement to come.

Don-key-ho-tay: Hey Keith. Can the Reds contend (or at least flirt w/ .5000) with the pitchers they’re throwing out there this year? (Castillo, Bailey, Disco, Romano, Mahle) or does too much have to go right with that group for that to happen?
Keith Law: I don’t believe they can or should. They’re no better than fourth in the division right now. They need to let the kids pitch and see who emerges as a clear starter – you omitted other guys who should be on the roster like Stephenson, Reed, Garrett – so they’re better set up for 2019 and beyond.

Aaron: Hey Keith, thanks for the lengthy write-up today on the Padres. I was surprised at how many more prospects you discussed than even the Braves # 1 system!
Keith Law: Padres have more guys, but a ton were in the AZL or even DSL, so they’re farther away & less valuable right now than some of Atlanta’s guys.

Brian: Why is Yadier Alvarez ranked substantially higher than Touki Toussaint? It seems like the plus stuff is similar, and Touki’s command and control is at least marginally better
Keith Law: Stuff isn’t that similar, Alvarez is more physical, Touki more athletic, neither throws enough strikes. More sentiment from pro scouts that Alvarez starts than Touki, although I bumped Touki up a bit because I believe he’s so athletic he’s going to find enough command to be a starter.

AJ: Hi KLaw. Am I crazy for thinking that a rebuilding team with payroll space (Phil, ChiSox) should be willing to take Ellsbury if they get Frazier and maybe Tate as well? Then flip him (keeping most of the salary) to a team out West (AZ, SF, etc.) For possibly a mid level prospect? Thanks.
Keith Law: I think Ellsbury is toast.

EL: Keen on any of the young guys signed out of the Bahamas? Do that country have a shot at becoming a minor baseball power like the Netherlands?
Keith Law: They’re all coming out of one program, I believe, and several of them are legit prospects – Chisholm and Robinson in particular, both with Arizona.

Tom Hendry: The Orioles are barely present on the international market. If they put in an average effort how many places higher would they be? What kind of a detriment is effectively ignoring that market?
Keith Law: Not sure you can ever have a top 10 system while ignoring the July 2nd market the way they do.

Arnold: What is the reason for the Giants’ poor farm system? Poor scouting? Emphasis on wrong type of player? Trading away their best prospects? Something else?
Keith Law: Lot of trades, rarely picking higher than they did last year (19th), terrible results internationally.

RSO: You have Justus Sheffield higher on your prospect list than most publications. When do you see him becoming a full time member of the Yankees rotation?
Keith Law: By year-end, pending opportunity, of course.

Don-key-ho-tay: A recent piece on pace of play brought some really interesting points (I think Scherzer had some great points) is a 20 second clock really too difficult to implement at highest level? At very least, conditioning minor leaguers to clock might see the pace quicken just based on churn, right?
Keith Law: Pitch clocks are going to increase pitcher injuries because they have less time for muscle recovery between pitches. God forbid we cut the fucking commercial breaks every time a team changes pitchers. We know why games are longer, but MLB keeps addressing non-factors.

RSO: What’s the deal with Blake Rutherford? He seemed like a stud while with the Yankees, and now he’s not being talked about at all.
Keith Law: Look at his year – he hit for no power at all and didn’t even hit for average like he should have. Hard to justify the year he had at age 20.

Derek: Are your prospects rankings based on prospect’s potential ceiling or what you expect from their career going forward
Keith Law: Those are factors as well as a prospect’s probability of having any positive value in the majors.

John: What do you think is holding up the free agent market this year?
Keith Law: It’s turtles all the way down.

NH: Matt Festa of the Mariners organization. What, if anything have you heard on him? Showed a strong propensity to miss bats last year, could he be a quick-rising relief prospect in their upper-minors?
Keith Law: Yes. He’s in their org report, which is … concise.

Patrick: You are obviously not as high on Florial as others. If you were running the Yankees and could make him a headliner for a Fulmer deal, how much more would you be comfortable giving up? Could it be done without Gleyber and Sheffield if Florial were on the table?
Keith Law: If the market thinks Florial is a top 100 prospect – which I’m not sure about, because I talked to a lot of people who saw what I saw, and execs who share my concerns – then he would be someone who could lead a Fulmer deal, maybe with a second top 100 guy thrown in. I do not know what Detroit wants, though.

John: As a Phillies fan, I am not quite sure how to feel right now about the franchise. They have been methodical in their rebuild, but unlike the Astros/Cubs, they dont have a few superstar core pieces to build around. Nola looks good, but has already had arm trouble. Their prospects, while looking like solid regulars, dont seem to have very high 70th percentile outcomes, and they’ve whiffed (it looks like) on a number of high picks in the last 5 years. Are they set to spin their wheels and be average over the next 5 years?
Keith Law: Don’t think it’s that dire; they have money to spend on free agents, and they look like they’ll have the prospect depth to swing a big deal or two. But the whiffs atop the draft are a real concern; they’ve been better with later picks, which is great, but you do have to hit more than half the time when you pick high.

Dutch: You think A.J. Reed could get some ABs as DH? Gattis has been very subpar the past few years.
Keith Law: I would love to see Reed get some of those ABs. Think he’ll swing and miss too much but get on base much more than Gattis does, and Reed has just as much power.

Chris: Hi Keith, I was surprised that Dustin May was ranked outside the top 10 for LAD. Do you see some reliever risk if the changeup doesn’t develop?
Keith Law: Yes, some violence in the delivery too.

Jay: Keith, what is your general opinion of Wagyu beef?
Keith Law: I don’t eat beef any more, but when I did, I didn’t understand paying extra for wagyu when it isn’t really a thing – Kobe beef is something very specific, but Wagyu is more of a marketing term. In theory, it’s better for the cows, the environment, and for the consumer because the meat has a better profile of fats, but you can’t guarantee what you’re getting.

RSO: Will the Yankees regret giving up Mateo, Kaprelian and Fowler for Sonny Gray?
Keith Law: Maybe, although since two were injured at the time, it was hard to argue with it – or with a deal that landed Gray but didn’t give up Torres or Sheffield.

John: Question: if MLB still wants to compensate teams for losing free agents, why not just give them compensation picks between rounds 1 and 2 instead of taking picks away from teams that sign free agents? It seems like that would be the best of both worlds scenario. Players could still sign wherever and get paid, teams would not be punished for signing free agents, and the teams losing players would still collect compensation picks to try and rebuild.
Keith Law: Because the point of compensation picks was never compensation: it’s punishment. MLB wanted to drag down free agent salaries and it worked.

ssimon: Hey Klaw, we know you are higher on Dom Smith than the Mets seem to be. Do you think the team is unfairly holding his 183 MLB PAs or the high-offense Las Vegas environment against him? (It can’t be Terry’s fault anymore.)
Keith Law: Yes, I do. He’s also started slow at several stops before. They shouldn’t act like this is a surprise.

Brian: Question about your observation that the Phillies system has depth but no superstars. With as much depth as they have, isn’t it likely that a few guys dramatically exceed expectations?
Keith Law: I don’t agree with that. It is likely that a few guys dramatically fall short of expectations, but the curve is not symmetrical about the mean.

leprekhan: How would you compare the interest level in the draft and prospects in general to say 5 years ago? Obviously it will vary from fans of different organizations, but overall it feels a bit like there is more interest than ever.
Keith Law: I agree. And I am fortunate that this is so.

Anton Chiguhr: Do you think Dombrowski moves on from JDM & seeks a trade or a Bautista/Cargo type reclamation?
Keith Law: I think Martinez ends up in Boston … but you could flip a coin.

John: I worry that the Brewers are getting a little ahead of themselves this offseason–their 86 win season was built on several out-of-character seasons from their players that aren’t that likely to be repeated. Seems like they’ve locked in to getting the end of Cain’s peak before they’re truly competitive with the Cubs and Cardinals, and then they’ll be stuck with some dead money in 2020-22. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I agree they may be over-estimating their odds of replicating 2017 performances, but I don’t think any of this money will be dead in 2020.

Troy: Luke Weaver a future 1or2 or more likely 4or5?
Keith Law: Way more likely 4 or 5.

Marissa: What are your thoughts on TJ Zeuch in the Blue Jays org?
Keith Law: Back-end starter. Jays report goes up tomorrow.

Dan: Carter Kieboom and E Fedde for Realmuto. Who says no?
Keith Law: Marlins.

jake: are you buying desmond lindsey’s issues being related to his vision (and now fixed)?
Keith Law: I wrote that.

John: You recommended Flavor Bible. Thank you so much! What a great tool! What do you think of their “what to drink with what you’re eating” book?
Keith Law: I’m not a wine drinker, so I haven’t read it.

Marshall MN: Is pitch recognition the key trait that ends up determining if a hitter can make it in the big leagues? Is it a teachable skill in your opinion?
Keith Law: It is a key trait but not the only one. It can improve, but it depends on the individual.

Reid: I always look forward to your work and as a Padres fan, it was great to read detailed info on so many of their prospects. While much of the talent is in the lower levels of the minors do you foresee an issue down the road with not enough room on the 40 man roster when they become Rule 5 eligible around the same time?
Keith Law: That’s possible, but would be an impetus for trades. I also think a few of those teenagers just won’t hit enough in pro ball to be rule 5 bait.

Jay: Assuming health, the likely top 4 starters for Houston are Verlander, Keuchel, Cole, McCullers. Who do you think should get the most starts as the 5th?
Keith Law: Morton would be 4th. McCullers still hasn’t shown he can stay healthy for a full season.

Rick: Do you think Brendan Mckay will try to play both ways in the minors or will the Rays make him pick a position?
Keith Law: I believe he’ll do both this year, and they may reevaluate after that. My #1 concern now for him is fatigue.

Dave: What’s your favorite dish to make using a sous vide device?
Keith Law: Chicken thighs. Whole Foods had 2-pound packages on sale this week, so I bought one (9 thighs), cooked them 4.5 hours at 165 degrees, chilled them, and then seared off a few each night for dinner.

Steve: What are the odds Cole Ragans hits your midseason top 50?
Keith Law: You tell me: does he throw more strikes? The walks are perplexing because he’s not truly wild and he repeats his delivery well.

Michael K : Hi Keith. I’m a big fan of your chat. I’m a lifelong Giants fan. With the #2 pick in the upcoming draft who do you think they should select?
Keith Law: Too soon. I’ll do a draft ranking in a few weeks, but even that will be on the early side, subject to a lot of change. I will say that there seems to be an early consensus that Ethan Hankins, Georgia prep RHP, is the top talent, but no HS RHP has ever gone 1-1.

Ted: Is the Red Sox farm system heading in the right direction after the 2017 draft and IFA signings? The 2 big trades and system grads left it bare, understandably.
Keith Law: Yes, the arrow is pointing up, but a lot of those new players’ values are still based on amateur looks.

Allan: Is a spike in velocity a warning sign for TJS, like in Joe Palumbo’s case.
Keith Law: I have never seen a study that attempted to prove/disprove the thesis, but I believe a sudden velocity spike increases the risk of a ligament tear. Perhaps the arm speeds up and the ligament can’t handle it?

Jared: Do you consider Archer top of rotation? I personally do not, but most Brewer fans do. His stats just don’t match up with his peripherals. Just wanted to get an expert’s opinion.
Keith Law: Potential top of rotation, hasn’t quite had those results.

Tom Hendry: The Astros made a lot of noise by reducing their minor league scouts. Didn’t the Orioles do this back in 2012? How many minor league scouts do they have vs. what is normal? Are few scouts a bad thing?
Keith Law: Not aware of the Orioles having fewer scouts; I think few scouts is a bad thing, yes. There is information you glean from watching players that won’t show up even in advanced data like Trackman provides. The latter is critical too, but why not supplement with in-person observation?

Chris: Do you see major changes ahead in the next CBA, as far as shifting more money toward players’ prime years (24 to 30) instead of teams signing guys to ten-year deals through age 40? It seems as though teams are beginning to realize the error of their ways, but the union’s not just going to give the owners that money.
Keith Law: It’s a few years down the road, but I would imagine players would fight more for earlier free agency next time.

Nate: Will you a preseason draft list or does it carry so little value at the end of the day, it isnt worth producing?
Keith Law: I do every year.
Keith Law: It’ll be up in a few weeks.

Stephen: What makes you higher on Justus Sheffield than most?
Keith Law: Don’t know. Ask Most why he’s so low on Sheffield.

Jeff: Lolo Sanchez and Luplow were absent from your Pirates writeup. Any quick thoughts/explanation on those guys?
Keith Law: Sanchez is on the Pirates’ writeup now; I screwed up and never transferred his blurb from my notes to the file I sent to ESPN. Luplow is an up-and-down guy at bst.

BRIAN: I know Cliff Frazier was not eligible for your prospect rankings – but he is really only a prospect with less than 150 ab last year… IF he was in the rankings — would he be top 50? Top 20? Is he a legit prospect or NY hype?
Keith Law: Would not be top 50. I understand the frustration about guys like him not making prospect lists, but we have to draw the line somewhere.

Nate: I see a lot of other reports on Matt Manning that are much more glowing than yours. What do you see his chances of developing the command and secondary stuff necessary to become more than a big armed bullpen guy?
Keith Law: People wishcast on players all the time; I can’t help that. He’s athletic enough to find the command and secondary stuff, but i can’t help but think he’ll need to scrap the CB for a slider and to get less robotic in his delivery first.

Aaron C.: Since 2002, the A’s have had spurts of MLB success, but it seems their minor league system has needed heavy supplementing from trades to actually bring talent into the pipeline. Why have the A’s struggled so much in the draft over the past 15 years?
Keith Law: I think where they’ve gone astray, it’s usually been on college performers whose tools didn’t/wouldn’t translate. I think they’ve drafted much better the last few years, though, even with Beck struggling in his first summer.

mike: Keith – Brewers question. Yelich was a great pickup, Cain a fair one. Let’s say they ARE in on Yu, and get him. Is a rotation of Yu, Nelson, Davies, Anderson and Chacin (with their above average bullpen) competing for an NL crown? It doesn’t pass the smell test.
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Scott: Any thoughts on Top Chef this season?
Keith Law: Haven’t watched.

Matthew: Thoughts on Senzel moving forward… quick player comp and how the Reds find him playing time. Or does he stay down until May 2019?
Keith Law: 2019? God I hope not. He’s ready or very close to it.

Mike D: I am nervous about Gabe Kapler, I do not want to see a couple of wasted years and start again. Does he have the managerial skills? Can he move this club forward ( if he gets pitching)?
Keith Law: I’m a big fan and I think he’ll be just what that roster needs, too.

Evan: Nolan Martinez doesn’t get a lot of press in a crowded Yankees system. What’s his upside long term?
Keith Law: Hurt all last year. Back-of-rotation upside if healthy.

Mike: Two OF questions – 1) are you still a believer in Dahl, IF he can stay healthy? 2) what do you make of Verdugo and his chance to be a key member of Dodgers’ OF plans?
Keith Law: I believe Dahl will be an above-average regular if healthy but don’t know if he’ll ever be healthy. That back injury is a bad one. Verdugo was in my top 50, above-average regular if/when he sticks.

ck: Just curious. When do you use a 6 arm for scouting vs 60 arm?
Keith Law: Same thing.

Marshall MN: Klaw which of your annual projects (top free agents, top amateur prospects, top draft prospects) do you most enjoy? Each seems like quite a lot of work, and I thoroughly enjoy reading each of them.
Keith Law: I hate the free agent stuff. The classes have been so bad the last few years that I end up talking about players I don’t think are very good.

Dan: Ellsbury was worth 1.8 WAR last yr
Keith Law: Thanks, Dr. Google. About 80% of that is the value he got for standing in centerfield. If he can’t move enough to truly play that, then he has no value.

Andy: Everyone would love for the Bahamas to become a baseball powerhouse. Talk about a fun place to scout players in.
Keith Law: Amen.

Ryan: saw you’re playing Charterstone. worthwhile with just 2, or would it benefit from a higher player count?
Keith Law: We’re playing with three; four might be nice, just because there would be more interaction. The empty areas on the board will eventually be filled in, though, so you’ll have more options, just less active agency interfering with your plans.

JR: Did you watch SOTU? I elected to get a work out in instead. Zero regrets.
Keith Law: Nope, don’t think I’ve ever actually watched a SOTU. It’s basically a political rally.

mike sixel: Why don’t you eat beef anymore? Any other meat restrictions?
Keith Law: My daughter and I share an inborn error of metabolism that led us to give it up.

Damon: How many years have to pass before we can say that the Padres did not properly capitalize on their 2016 Draft bonanza? Whitely, Bichette, Trammell, all available at for the teams first three picks and they selected none of them
Keith Law: That is pure hindsight.

Harry: Whatever happened to Hak Ju Lee??
Keith Law: Blew out his ankle in triple-A; when he came back, his speed was mostly gone.

Beau: Noticed no write-up on Vladimir Gutierrez: has he fallen off completely, still have potential? What’s he need to do? Thanks.
Keith Law: Back-end at best, likely middle reliever.

Chris: How did Corey Seager fall to the 18th pick in his draft?
Keith Law: Demanded an over slot bonus.

section 34: Klaw, I’m not one of those “stick to baseball” people. I like reading your opinions on other topics, whether or not I agree. But I am curious: on Twitter, you’re all about women’s issues lately. Why?
Keith Law: I’m pretty sure the world is all about women’s issues lately. It’s kind of in the news.

Bill: The write up on Lolo Sanchez in your NL Central guide seemed much more positive than the ranking. Is it just distance from majors keeping him out of the top 10?
Keith Law: Distance from majors and distance from reaching even a reasonable projection.

Craig: Ross Atkins said with the information teams have now, Nate Pearson would have gone 1-1.

Just an exec talking up a first round pick? Or does Pearson have that kind of talent?
Keith Law: Exec talking up a player. There is no chance that would happen, even now.

Dan: Hey Keith, I apologize if this is too personal, but when did you (or have you) had you start talking to your daughter about sex and related topics? I have a six and a three year old; I want to have age-appropriate conversations where I can tell them things in ways that they can understand without feeling overwhelmed or scared. Did you follow any recommended guideline or just use your judgment and answer questions as they came up? Thanks.
Keith Law: We had The Talk when she was 10, because we wanted to do that before she hit puberty and because it was clear she was starting to get hints from TV and from friends at school. It ended with her sitting under the table going “ew, ew, ew,” so I think we did a good job.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week; thank you as always for reading and for your questions. AL org reports begin tomorrow with the East, then Central Friday, West Saturday. And I’ll actually start blogging here again now that the prospect stuff is done. Thanks again!

My top 100 prospects rankings have been going up for Insiders this week, with 100 through 51, 50 through 1, and ten who just missed all up as of Thursday afternoon. The farm system rankings go up on Friday, and team by team reports start running on Monday.

Keith Law: You are a witness to the movement. Klawchat.

Frank: Why did Harrison Bader miss your rankings? He’s raked at every level, can run, has pop and can play a good CF. What contributed to his missing out?
Keith Law: Let me start with my annual disclaimer: There are many prospects who didn’t make the top 100 who still project as big-leaguers, or have above-average upside, or who I otherwise like as prospects. Bader is one of them – I think he’s a solid-average regular as a CF, maybe below that in a corner because he doesn’t project to get on base at an average rate or have above-average power.

Bill G: Thanks as always for the top prospect lists. Max Kepler and Nomar Mazara. Is there still upside or what we see is what we get. Thanks!
Keith Law: Still upside on both. I’m in.

Minnie: Virtu Honest Craft or Citizen Public House for an anniversary dinner? We’re more fun than fancy.
Keith Law: CPH is more fun, Virtu has better food but a shorter menu. CPH has a great cocktail menu too. They make my favorite negroni.

Tim: Any Jays pitching prospects worth talking about after Pearson? Also recommend “Samurai Spirit” board game.
Keith Law: All 30 org reports will run next week, one division a day, Monday through Saturday, I believe starting with the NL East. I had Borucki and Pardinho as the next two pitchers in the Jays’ system.

Kevin S.: Re: your Estevan Florial write-up – what are the chances you see him having an Alfonso Soriano-type career, where he has just enough plate recognition that his immense raw skills make him a good player, but is always frustrationg because it feels like he could be a superstar if he laid off a slider in the dirt?
Keith Law: Soriano was a hacker too, but I don’t think Florial is even that advanced in terms of approach, pitch recognition, or overall instincts. Plus Soriano did play the middle infield for a while, not well, but that gave him some extra value. Again, Florial isn’t a bad prospect by any means; he just has a long way to go.

Jon: Finally the top 100+. Thank you. Look forward to it every year. I always ask (as does everyone) for a couple of lower minors breakouts. I have Larry Ernesto as one, and Kristian Robinson. Would you mind adding a couple of your own? Thanks again for the lists.
Keith Law: I do a sleeper prospect for every team, and those will run in the org reports. Robinson > Ernesto, as much as we can say something like that on 16-year-olds.

Johnny: Alec Hansen had a 3.2 BB/9 last year which is not great, obviously. Where do you think it needs to be for you and scouts to believe in his #2 upside?
Keith Law: Think he can succeed with 45 control because he could have two swing and miss pitches. I’m also bullish because the White Sox have done so much to clean him up and get him to this point from where he was at Oklahoma, falling out of the first round completely after being a top 5 possibility to start the spring.

Nick: What’s your definition of a scout? I know you’ve said before that you didn’t consider yourself one.
Keith Law: I am not a scout. A scout is employed by an MLB team to cover an area for the draft (area scouts), to cover the top tier of guys in a region or country for the draft (supervisors and crosscheckers), to cover specific minor leagues or organizations from the majors down to A-ball (pro scouts), to cover the international amateur market (int’l scouts), or to cover a little of everything as needed (special assignment scouts). I am a writer who knows a little about how to scout. That’s very different. Nobody is using my reports to decide whether to acquire a player or how much to pay one.

TC: Did Jesse Winkler’s lack of power production in the minors along with his defensive limitations keep him from top 100 consideration?
Keith Law: He’s not rookie eligible, and thus not eligible for the rankings.

Nate (Seattle): Hey Keith, wondering where Amed Rosario would rank if he was still eligible?
Keith Law: I don’t rank guys who’ve exhausted their eligibility; we have major-league data on these guys that we don’t on most other prospects, making the comparison a bit unfair.

Pirate Boi: You ranked Mitch Keller 18th overall which is great, but the blurb about him being a 4th starter at the moment may have some Pirates fans worried. Where do you think he eventually falls and does Ray Searage’s ability to get the most out of pitchers factor in at all?
Keith Law: Lots of guys are top prospects without being at their ceilings right now; I have all these teenagers atop the list who probably wouldn’t hit much or hit for any power if you put them right in the majors. Keller is a top prospect with a high ceiling, but he has to find a better third pitch to get there.
Keith Law: Also, I say in the intro that all rankings are team agnostic. Keller could be traded tomorrow, so I don’t consider his org at all.

Joe: Triston McKenzie — how likely is it that he adds velocity since he still has so much projection? What does 2 MPH added mean for his ceiling?
Keith Law: His ranking assumes he’ll at least get to 90-94. He could get more than that; he’s projectable, but I don’t think he has a huge frame to end up at 240-250.

Brian: Keith, a random TV question for you. I know you are a big fan of the Wire. I was curious if you watched Treme and what your thoughts were on it. Thanks.
Keith Law: I did not. I watch almost no TV at this point because of time limitations. I read, I play games, I see movies, that doesn’t leave a whole lot of other time.

Tim: Corbin Burnes made the top 25 which was a pleasant surprise. If you were the Brewers, would you get him reps at AA this season and then skip the AAA call up all together?
Keith Law: Yes. I wouldn’t send any pitching prospects to Colorado Springs unless I wanted them to get high.

Mason: What are your thoughts on Kyle Lewis? I predicted he’d fall out of the top 100.
Keith Law: Didn’t appear to be 100% recovered from the knee injury. We’ll check in again in March and see how he’s moving.

DCS Foyle: A humble request for a random book to read. (It can’t be The Eyre Affair, which I loved and am grateful to you for!)
Keith Law: Best book I read in 2017, any genre, was either I Contain Multitudes or Evicted (Pulitzer winner for non-fiction).

twins fan: Could you give us some thoughts on Brusdar Graterol and Akill Badoo?
Keith Law: In the Twins report next week. I believe both are in their top ten (I haven’t written the AL Central yet).

Grant: If you managed the Cardinals, how would you handle playing time at catcher? It doesn’t seem like Molina is too keen on taking more days off, but they have to get Kelly playing time if he is to be the heir apparent behind the plate.
Keith Law: Yes; I understand the desire to keep Molina happy, and Kelly does have to work on getting the ball in the air more, but ideally you’re getting close to a 50/50 split and have Yadi working with Carson on the stuff he’s supposed to do so well, like handling pitchers. You can also make Yadi the late-game replacement when it’s close and Kelly started.

One Klawwy Boi: Which player in the 51-100 range do you give the best chance at being an absolute superstar?
Keith Law: Adell. Also has a fair chance of not panning out, but I think he has the most upside of anyone in the latter half.

Garrett: I was worried I was scouting stat lines when I saw Logan Allen so I was happy to see him make your list. Separately, what do you think of Chris Paddack even though he is hurt currently?
Keith Law: Fourth starter potential if healthy, probably will just get a brief mention in that loaded Padres system’s writeup.

Lucas: How many players on your top 100 have you not seen play in person?
Keith Law: I think 20 or fewer. Don’t think it’s any more than that. I’ll go into spring training with that list in hand to try to check as many off as I can.

Q Ball: Kolby Allard fell out of the top 100 but I was actually very fond of his 2017. He showed 150 innings of health pitching in the same league all year where batters saw him over and over again. And he was only 19 for the majority of the season. What am I missing?
Keith Law: You didn’t see him, I guess. He was working with a 45 fastball much of the year, and he always had durability questions because he’s on the smaller side. He’s a very different guy at 90-93 and touching a little more than at 87-88.

John: How close was Stephen Gonsalves to making the top 100?
Keith Law: Not close.

Marvin: If more teams follow the Astros and fire their scouts will that make it harder for you to get second opinions when compiling future top 100 lists?
Keith Law: I don’t think any teams are rushing to do that any time soon. But I don’t just talk to scouts, either.

Ethan: Should the Brewers give Keon Broxton more time, or trade him for pitching to make room for Brinson?
Keith Law: Trade Broxton, if he even has trade value. He was close to r-level last year.

Kelly: When you contact your Representatives do you call their office or email? I really want to voice my dissent but get anxious when talking on the phone
Keith Law: I call. It might help you to have 2-3 sentences written down and just read them off when you get someone on the phone. They’re used to it. If you’re polite, you’ll already be well above the median for calls they’ve gotten that day.

Patrick: Keith, as someone who cannot see your prospects list (my espn log-in isn’t working), a question rather on past rankings. Do you ever go back and see where you succeeded, where you didn’t, in forecasts? Does this reflection help you going forward?
Keith Law: It’s a constant process. I know where I got guys wrong – where it was on me, and where circumstances (like injury) I couldn’t predict were the cause. But you can’t do this job without keeping your mistakes somewhere in your mind so you don’t repeat them.

Erix: You were quite high on Logan Warmoth going into the draft. Has your opinion changed at all since?
Keith Law: No.

JR: Is Tatis Jr and Urias the best double play combo in the minors?
Keith Law: No, because I don’t think they’ll even play together to start the year.

Andrew: What does it look like when makeup derails a prospect’s career? Does he not work hard enough and perform poorly on the field, or is it off-the-field?
Keith Law: Those can all happen. It can be drugs or drinking; lack of conditioning, even just slacking on basic stuff like the rotator cuff strengthening pitchers do.

Ryan: Is there someone in the Mets system you could see making a big jump this year, like Anthony Kay, Lindsay or Nido? If not them, anyone else you have your eye on?
Keith Law: Kay, Lindsay (who was much better after he could see again), Gimenez, Mauricio, Vientos. I like their system even though it has become shallower due to trades & promotions.

Twinzies: Given the recent Kohl Stewart football rumors, I thought now would be a good time to ask what happened to him? I know he had injuries, but he didn’t seem to perform well when healthy. I’ve also heard about makeup/attitude issues from Twins beat writers and also wanted to know if you can expand on those makeup/attitude issues.
Keith Law: Stuff backed up, arm isn’t as quick as it was in HS. He denied the rumors, BTW. Never, ever heard a bad word about his makeup.

Rick: What do you make of the Amed Rosario and Dom Smith debuts?
Keith Law: Nothing. Tiny samples, first time around the majors. Mike Trout wasn’t very good his first callup either, so reacting one way or the other to any two-month stint would be folly.

Jason: What kept Adonis Medina off the list? Your report last year with him was glowing
Keith Law: It was glowing, and I like him, but he wasn’t really even close because other teams have great A-ball prospects too.

Patrick: Keith, thanks for the time feeding the baseball beast!
Do you have a ranking of music you are looking forward to this year, too?
Keith Law: Nah, I take it as it comes.

Ed: I’m a meat-eater looking to cut back and implement more vegetarian dishes in my diet – any cookbook recommendations for vegetarian dishes? I didn’t see one on your recommended cookbooks list.
Keith Law: I have several veg-focused books on that list, like Plenty and Tender and Broad Fork, that aren’t strictly vegetarian. You will find plenty in there to work with, though. I also recently got Jeremy Fox’s On Vegetables, which has some great ideas, although the recipes are not well written for the home chef.

Richard: Tomorrow will you be releasing the list of players who just missed the just missed the top 100 list?
Keith Law: That went up this morning and the link is right above this chat window.

WarBiscuits: I know you were against Hoffman’s induction, but honestly I’m glad it opens up a spot for the Rolen/A. Jones types who get way too little mention. It’s annoying how Andruw Jones and Scott Rolen, who are considered one of the best defensive players for their position, like Vizquel(by peers, not stats), but both had a much better bat than Vizquel. For me Rolen/Jones should have been prioritized over Vizquel.
Keith Law: Agreed especially on Rolen. Both he and Andruw were clearly better than Vizquel, whose support seems to be entirely from writers who say “you just had to see him play.” (I did. He wasn’t Ozzie, and he wasn’t Andrelton.)

Sonny: Is your issue with the HOF the voting process or the voters?
Keith Law: Some of both, really. The limit should not be 10, players shouldn’t fall off unless they get 0 votes, and writers really need to let go of the bullshit stats that defined so much of the game’s first hundred years. They don’t work, teams don’t so much as look at them, so stop pretending saves and RBIz and pitcher wins mean anything at all.

WDE: Are you considering making a visit to one of the SEC colleges like Auburn, Florida or MSU this spring? It seems like this college baseball season will be fun.
Keith Law: I’ll see the top guys but not sure where. Very unlikely to go to MSU, just because of time/cost to get there when I can see them on the road, like at Vanderbilt … which is in Nashville … which has such great food.

Tim: Was there a guy that you just couldn’t quite put on the 100 yet, that you are afraid may come back to haunt you?
Keith Law: Sure. Florial and Mountcastle were guys I wrestled with a lot. Hill just wasn’t back and healthy enough for me to push him on, even though I’ve always liked him.

Drew: Hey Keith, I love your work and content. Quick question on Chance Adams…It seems to be a consensus that hes not a top 100 prospect, but how would you value his upside and likelihood of reaching his potential?
Keith Law: Fourth/fifth starter ceiling, likely reliever.

David: I would not vote for Hoffman, but given how hard the baseball HOF is to get in, who are we to say he is undeserving?
Keith Law: Someone has to say it.

Jim (Chicago): Thanks for the hard work, Keith. I imagine Luis Robert must be difficult to rank due to his limited time in the US, but I was curious if he moved up or down for you after you spoke to those at the White Sox hitting camp last week? Did you hear any new information on him after that camp?
Keith Law: Extremely difficult, but that hitting camp doesn’t give us any new info. That’s just practice, nothing from which we can glean any useful insight.

Rick C: I understand that the lists are non-sequential, but the inclusion of Allard in the top 50 (#26 IIRC) at midseason and then being totally off the top 100 a few months later really does not make sense to me. How can someone go from being that highly regarded to being off the list entirely in such a short time? And if he’s really not a top 100 prospect now, that to me indicates a flaw in the process of developing the previous list.
Keith Law: The midseason top 50 list is a single file, developed in less than a week, with a sentence or two on each player. The top 100 is a two-month process that runs about 30,000 words that run over two weeks with long capsules on every top 100 guy. This really isn’t hard to understand.

Jeff: Keith, I believe you had LAD’s Mitch White on your mid season top 50, but not in the top 100 just released. Can you explain what caused the drop & what you see as his likely outcome? Thanks as always for the prospect package. Only reason I keep paying for Insider.
Keith Law: He got hurt and wasn’t good in the second half. Lot more on him in the Dodgers’ writeup (which is actually done already … 16 teams written so far).

Carl: As a Tigers fan, with the #1 pick in the draft is there much to get excited about?
Keith Law: Yes. Good draft, deep too, so good for a team with high picks and lots of bonus $.

Larry: Surprised you had Luis Robert in your rankings without having played a game on US soil. Were the reports from the DSL so strong that you couldn’t leave him off?
Keith Law: Plenty of precedent for that. Maitan and Sano made my lists in previous years before they played. I’ve ranked some drafted players who sat out the summer too.

J.P.: Where would Ohtani have ranked on your list, had he been eligible?
Keith Law: This is why he’s not eligible. How do you compare a player with years of NPB data and success to players here who haven’t faced that level of competition?

Henry: What is the Keith Law diagnosis for the frozen MLB market?
Keith Law: I’m thrilled. More time for me to work on the prospects.

Harold: Will Hoffman be the last sub 30 WAR guy to make the HOF?
Keith Law: We can only hope so. If you add Vizquel’s WAR to Hoffman’s, you get less than half of Barry Bonds’.

Timmy: I understand that a few spots in the rankings is virtually meaningless. That said, how do you determine who to rank higher b/t top players at the same position, like Buehler, Whitley, Kopech, for example?
Keith Law: I do a lot of pairwise comparisons to get to the final list, especially at the top. I’m comparing total packages and individual attributes.

JR: Did any team not have at least one player on the Top 100? As a Mets fan, was bummed to only see one guy in Top 100, I know they’ve promoted a bunch of top guys the past couple years, but still disappointing to see they haven’t been able to replenish the farm like other teams (cough, yankees, cough) have.
Keith Law: Mariners and Royals were shut out. Giants had one at 95 and that’s it. Rangers and Marlins each had one as well.
Keith Law: And the Mets have not done well in trades to acquire prospects from other teams, and they haven’t gone over slot in the draft like most teams have to acquire extra high-ceiling guys.

Jake: How surprised would you be if Tatis became a better offensive player than Acuna?
Keith Law: Not surprised, but Acuna stays in the middle of the field and Tatis is maybe 50/50 to move to third or elsewhere.

Robbie: The angels actually have prospects on your top 100 list and I couldn’t be more excited. Have you noticed any development method changes with the organization or did they simply make better picks?
Keith Law: Better picks. No more strip-mining in trades. International signings starting to bubble up to the list too.

Baltimore Joe: You’ve just been named the GM of the Orioles. Name your first five moves.
Keith Law: This is largely about whether the owner wants to compete or rebuild. I think it’s a rebuild situation – trade Machado for everything you can get, trade Britton if/when he’s healthy, hope to pick high for a few years, actually spend something internationally.

Rick: I don’t recall you ever mentioning how much animal agriculture is contributing to global warming. Do you have any thoughts on ways to reduce this problem?
Keith Law: It’s come up many times in my Saturday links posts. Developed societies tend to eat too much protein in general, more than we need, and the idea of the meat-centric meal is probably outdated. Dan Barber’s book The Third Plate looks into this at great length and without preconceived notions.

JP4424: Read Adlers book, it’ll let you know the diary isn’t a joke.
Keith Law: That’s kind of horrifying that anyone can write that pretentiously without a hint of irony or humor.

Greg: You seem to travel quite a bit within the states, but haven’t heard much of your international treks, if any. Do you have a favorite int’l destination? What’s on your bucket list?
Keith Law: I haven’t left North America since my daughter was born except for a family trip to Hawai’i when we lived in Arizona. I am hoping to get to Italy in the next year to see my cousins there, and then maybe do something else while in Europe. Extreme bucket list … Chile, Buenos Aires, Morocco, Tokyo/Kyoto, the Maldives, Botswana, Costa Rica … I could go on …

Sean: Interested to see your writeup on Keller and concerns about fastball command. His low WHIP and walk rates seemed impressive compared to other similarly rated prospects, especially in the high minors. Is this a case of it would be exposed better by major league hitters and isnt as visible in a minor league stat line? Also, do you think his K rates will translate or will he need more development of the changeup to get strikeouts at the major league level? P.S. Thanks for all the great work on the top 100 and beyond…always something to look forward to every winter!
Keith Law: WHIP sucks, don’t use it for evaluating players. Command and control aren’t the same – control is really just throwing strikes and not walking guys, but command is about location, even within the zone (or outside of it, as needed). Because his fastball can be pretty straight, he needs to be more precise when throwing it than a guy with plus life on the pitch might have to be. Velocity does mitigate some command issues but big league hitters can still turn on 100 mph if it’s straight and gets too much of the plate.

Pat: Tigers pitchers- How close were Burrows, Manning & Faedo to the top 100? What would each need to do in 2018 to make the leap on to the list next year?
Keith Law: Burrows the best of those three. Manning just was not good in 2017 – stuff was down, breaking ball still isn’t there, and he had major control issues in the spring and in extended.

Bort: A trade of Manny Machado to the Indians for Danny Salazar + Greg Allen/Tyler Naquin/Yandy Diaz makes too much sense not to happen, right? If the O’s take the OFer as the second piece they could then sign Moustakas, who should do well in that park/league.
Keith Law: That’s a weak return for Baltimore. Also, why would Moustakas do well in that park?

US Citizens : Give me some hope that our country survives the next three years. We survived World War II so I guess we can survive anything.
Keith Law: We will survive, but we will never be the same.

Colin: So no Tyler O’Neill in the Top 110 after a decent 2017… was he close? Concerned about his ability to make contact or just doesnt off much beyond the power?
Keith Law: Not close, and a .321 OBP for a corner OF is not “decent.”

Todd: The Mets’ ridiculous signings of Jay Bruce and A-Gon make it obvious they hate Dominic Smith. Would now be a good time for a team to swoop in and buy low on him or do you share some of the Mets’ concerns?
Keith Law: I don’t even know what their concerns are. I would certainly be trying to acquire him.

Adam Trask: Which was a worse HOF selection, Hoffman or Morris?
Keith Law: I actually think Morris was worse, even though Hoffman had less value and is also clearly unworthy, because Morris’ case was based completely on bullshit revisionism, while Hoffman’s was based on belief in a bad stat.

Joe: Klaw – making my first trip to Phoenix in the spring. Is Pizzeria Blanca somewhere I can just show up and get a table – or possibly wait 30 mins for a table? Just need a general sense of what level of planning should go into my birthday dinner.
Keith Law: Yes, at the Town & Country location off US 51.

Dr. Bob: If you’re not a scout, are you then an analyst, in that you use other people’s data to make ratings and projections?
Keith Law: I’m just a writer. Anything more than that is unnecessary to me.

Dave: Is Mark Appel a non prospect? Reclamation project?
Keith Law: Ended the year on the shelf with a sore shoulder, obviously wasn’t great before that, so I’d say reclamation project but with the clock ticking.

John: Would Jose Siri be somewhere in the next 100?
Keith Law: I guess, but he was 21 in low-A and swings and misses a ton.

Mitchell: What do you expect from Kevin Maitan at this point? Is he looking like a complete bust, or could he still become a great player? Or somewhere in-between?
Keith Law: Only 18 this year. Still plenty of time to turn it around, but he will have to start to work harder on his body and his swing than he did last year.

Dave: last year you had Corey Ray(34), Isan Diaz(41), Trent Grisham(67), and Luis Ortiz(71) for the Brewers. Did the Brewers get more talented players to have these drop from the list or was it case of just a decline in performance that dropped them from the list?
Keith Law: If those guys still belonged, they would still be on the list, regardless of who else the Brewers acquired.

Tom: Bryan Mata seems to be fairly advanced for his age, albeit without overpowering stuff. Do you project him as much more than a mid-rotation pitcher if he fills out his frame?
Keith Law: Not overpowering stuff, but better than Ronny Raudes, their low-A stats guy from last year, so I’m more bullish. And Mata has some projection left. Mid-rotation is within reach.

Carlo: What would Austin Beck need to show you this year to bump him into the top 100?
Keith Law: He has to hit.

Matt: It’s kinda funny how the more unpopular Jeter becomes, the more popular A-Rod becomes. Who said God doesn’t have a sense of humor?
Keith Law: Martin Gore said He had one, just that it was sick.

Arnold: Thoughts on this new OF the Giants have constructed, Pence in LF, Jackson in CF, McCutchen in RF. It strikes me as a lot of age and likely injuries out there.
Keith Law: And possibly a lot more base hits falling in this year.

Nic: Hey Keith, loved the top 100 as always. Just a few questions: why the big difference in opinion between you and the general consensus on prospects like perez(you are on the high side), and adams(you dont even have him top 100)?Is it you saw them on days when they were either really good or bad, you get different reports from different scouts than everyone else, or you value certain abilities higher when compiling a ranking, or something else?Thanks again for the chat, love your work.
Keith Law: No idea about the “consensus.” I talk to scouts, execs, etc. This isn’t just what I saw.

Matt Malone: Do you believe any changes in organizational philosophy will occur in Atlanta after it got hit with sanctions?
Keith Law: Yes. I believe they won’t break the rules.

Nick: Can you see any pitcher make a jump like Whitley did in 2017? Maybe Jesus Luzardo?
Keith Law: I do think Luzardo could fly up the list now that he’s healthy, if he shows that stuff for an extended period.

Tom: Do the D-backs still have the worst farm system this year?
Keith Law: Rankings tomorrow. They are not 30th.

Pat D: I had The Florida Project #3 on my list for the year, but I’m not too surprised it was snubbed, because I’m guessing it wasn’t seen by enough people. How many of the nominees have you seen, and what would you pick?
Keith Law: I’ve seen 7 of 9, needing Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread. Shape of Water would be #1 for me of the 7 I’ve seen, followed by Dunkirk.

Jon: Keith, based on defense only, how would you order the following: Edmonds, Rolen, Vizquel?
Keith Law: Rolen, Edmonds, Vizquel.

Amy: You can also call reps after hours and leave a voicemail!
Keith Law: That works too.

Nick: Justin Dunn obviously had a pretty poor 2017. I’m guessing he should start 2018 back at Hi-A. Are you still bullish on him going forward as a SP prospect?
Keith Law: Stuff was fine, but he was way more raw as a pitcher than anyone seemed to think before the draft. Still 93-95 even on bad days, still athletic, but I think the Mets have a lot of development work to do with him and they haven’t had a guy like him in a while. I’d still take him in a trade in a heartbeat.

Ethan: Can you give us any kind of picture on what has to be your vast amount of notes look like? Spreadsheets, Word Docs, notebooks, how many?
Keith Law: One Word doc per org. One Word doc per scout/source. A spreadsheet to track all the top tens and the 100. And my scouting notebook.

Dr. Bob: You steadfastly refuse to comment on why you rank players differently than on other lists, which is fine. However, has a player ever that you didn’t care for show up on someone else’s list, making you at least go back and review your notes to see if you might have missed something?
Keith Law: Don’t think so, just because I’m running through so many players to get to my 100.

Joe: Keith, I was a bit surprised to see Acevedo get so close to the list. Is the stuff that good even though he is a pure relief prospect?
Keith Law: Stuff and control. Still think he’s a reliever, but he has started with some success throughout the minors.

Scott: Were you a fan of the Brit band “The Fall”?
Keith Law: Not really. Have known about them and heard some of their stuff going back to high school, but Smith’s stuff was always just a bit too weird, too anti-melodic, too non-musical for me. RIP.

Corey: Could Chavis be on track as the Sox 1B in ’20 with Moreland keeping the seat warm until then ?
Keith Law: Yes.

Nick: Mark Vientos had a nice start to his professional baseball career. Where would you start him in 2018 and what position do you see him playing going forward?
Keith Law: Low-A. I think he goes to third. If Gimenez returns to low-A (he’ll be just 19, Vientos 18), then move Vientos to the hot corner when Gimenez is at short.

JJ: Mike Mussina and your former colleague Curt Schilling have always seemed like a tandem in the HOF voting, but Mussina pulled significantly ahead on the ballots this year. It looks like he might actually get in over the next couple of years. Do you think, if he shuts off his internet for a year or two, that Schilling will join him?
Keith Law: I think Curt’s political and other comments have hurt him enough in the voting that he will probably plateau in the 50-60 range while Moose gets in.

Jeff: I know you don’t consider or worry about other rankings when you make your top 100, but what concerns you about Chance Adams, who appears to consistently be among the top 100 prospects on other rankings?
Keith Law: Yeah, that’s a better question for other rankings – why a short RHP without a plus pitch or much fastball plane/life is a top 100 guy.

JD: any oscar disappointments or pleasant surprises for you?
Keith Law: Really disappointed that Florida Project didn’t get a nomination for Best Picture when there was a damn spot open. This was not going to happen, but I would have loved to see Kogonada get a Best Original Screenplay nomination for Columbus.

Bill: I wish the Mets shared your feelings about two-month debuts. Adrian Gonzales? Really? What the fuck?
Keith Law: I guess the Mets felt they really needed a clubhouse lawyer.

JD: 10 HOF votes for Johan Santana, same as Jamie Moyer. Obviously he’s not a HOFer, but did he deserve better, given that he was the best pitcher in baseball for ~5 years?
Keith Law: Yes, he did. And having him off the ballot doesn’t really serve any greater purpose.

Rob: Thanks for the lists as always. Glad to see the Phils fairly well represented. If we could just fast forward til when those pitchers are ready. Do you have a favorite Stephen Starr place in Philadelphia?
Keith Law: Pizzeria Stella. And go spend some time in Reading, Lehigh, Lakewood this year. They’ll all be pretty fun.

john wick: I understand your decision to not rank Ohtani. Would you rather have him or Acuna for the next six years to start a franchise with?
Keith Law: I think you have to take Ohtani because he’s major-league ready – and not ready in the sense of “won’t be bad,” but in the sense of “probably awesome right away.”

Bret: What percentage chance would you give Bo Bichette to stick at shortstop? Is he a plus second baseman if he moves there?
Keith Law: I know he works his ass off but I don’t think he is a shortstop long term. He plays fast and hard, and I don’t think he’ll be consistent enough or have steady enough footwork for short.

Ike: Would candelario have been in the top 100 if he were still eligible?
Keith Law: No. Not enough glove or power.

JD: Reports say Manfred will impose (1) a firm 20-second pitch clock with a one-ball penalty and (2) only one mound visit per pitcher per inning *by anybody*, player or coach. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I oppose 1, I’m fine with 2.

Rick C: So you’re saying we shouldn’t pay much attention to your midseason rankings?
Keith Law: I’m saying you should not place equal weight on the two, or harp on the idea that a player’s ranking changed dramatically between the two. I start every top 100 from scratch, not by writing down the midseason top 50 and moving guys around.

Martin: My wife is 12 weeks pregnant, any book recommendations on parenting etc would be highly appreciated!
Keith Law: Congratulations! Happiest Baby on the Block.

Brett: Does Yordan Alvarez’s move to the OF hurt his prospect stock?
Keith Law: Don’t see why it would hurt his stock, but I can’t imagine he’ll be OK out there either.

Adam: If you’re the Marlins, with that system, how seriously would you consider making “lottery ticket” trades with Yelich and Realmuto? I feel like getting 7-8 high risk/reward prospects for them has potential to be more rewarding than 2-3 guys in the Top 100 right now.
Keith Law: Absolutely. Go big. You may not get this chance again.

Chad: KLaw – Any chance you want to take pity on me re: the top few of your 2018 draft, like I asked on twitter? I dont want to step on content but i need to draaaaaaaaaaaaft lol.
Keith Law: I won’t even think about this until February. I don’t like answering questions when I haven’t done the work to give thoughtful answers.

Joe: Did Blake Rutherford get any consideration?
Keith Law: No. He and Moniak were both far worse than they should have been, different reasons but same outcome.

Anthony : Was Willie Calhoun not considered due to the lack of defensive position? Where do you see his upside and at what position?
Keith Law: Lack of defensive position is kind of a problem, yes. Not a 2b at all. Probably not a good LF. Not many 5’6″ power hitters in today’s game either.

JD: Have the Coppolella ban and the Braves’ other punishments affected the upcoming J2 process?
Keith Law: No, they were in the penalty box anyway for going over their limits in 2016-17.

Richard: You missed my joke. I meant an additional list “the just missed the just missed the top 100”.
Keith Law: My apologies. Sometimes I read too fast.

Josh: Nine movies being nominated for best picture seems a bit much, no?
Keith Law: To me the extra 5 slots are justified by the boost lesser-known films get from such nominations. I’m pretty sure the nomination just got Darkest Hour another week at my local theater. People will go seek out movies that earned nominations, so if there’s a good indie film that was worthy anyway, why not give it that last slot?

Steve: I could be misremembering weren’t you against the O’s stopping Arrieta from throwing across his body but it’s now not a good approach for Harvey?
Keith Law: Pitcher mechanics are not one size fits all. Arrieta had success throwing across his body and never got hurt. Harvey started throwing across his body in pro ball and almost immediately blew out.

Matt: Hawaii isn’t part of N America?
Keith Law: Um … Hawai’i is in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, 2500 miles away from California. It’s on the Pacific Plate, not the North American Plate. Are you new?

Chris: I’m sure this has been asked a bunch but why doesnt dot com run your lists 51-1, etc as titled? i think this came up last year too.
Keith Law: Not my decision.

Eric: Why should Hall of Fame voters care what teams use to judge players? Teams are trying to predict future performance, and Hall of Fame voters are trying to measure past performance.
Keith Law: Teams also measure past performance. They do it a lot better than dingbats who use W SV RBI AVG DERP.

Paul: Has your opinion on whether Royce Lewis can stay at shortstop changed or is it just the Twins who are optimistic about it?
Keith Law: Twins are optimistic. I try to reset judgments on players when they get into pro ball because they get help from new coaches and of course the entire game is different – wood bats, play every day, faster pace, etc.

Dr. Bob: If a pitcher’s job is to get outs, then why are you so dismissive of WHIP? Too broad?
Keith Law: I explain more in Smart Baseball, but in short, pitchers don’t really control hits on balls in play enough for WHIP to be meaningful, and WHIP itself is bad math (measured in batters on top, innings on the bottom). I don’t look at BB/9, but at BB/PA — really (BB-IBB)/(PA-IBB).
Keith Law: Sorry, for a pitcher PA in that denominator would be TBF, and you’d take out SH if it’s included too.

Kevin: How many people asking questions in the queue throw fake names at you. Like, how did Chauncey Gardiner not make the top 100? That guy walks on water.
Keith Law: You reminded me of the fake Coachella poster going around that has band names created by a machine-learning program that took in hundreds of real band names as inputs. It was something else.

Mike: Where would you rank your player evaluation knowledge with someone like Theo or anyone else who is running a team? Is there a high ceiling where some people are really much better than others or is it many ways a skill that doesn’t allow one person to be much better than anyone else who knows what to look for?
Keith Law: I do not put my skills or knowledge up against those who do this for teams. They have more information, they need to base major decisions on their evaluations, and they aren’t trying to entertain anybody.

nelson: Did you see Good Time? Thought it was one of the best movies I saw this year, for what it’s worth.
Keith Law: I did. Pattinson was good, but I hated just about everything else about it: http://klaw.me/2AWJ3RI
Keith Law: Score was good, though.

Mark: I’m a big music fan and I can’t name one Fall song. Any recommendations?
Keith Law: Hit the North and Mountain Energy are two of their more accessible singles.

Ben: Keith, enjoying top 100 and having fun diving into Smart (sp!) Baseball. Faintly remembering you favorably comparing Jordan Hicks v Sandy Alcantara this past year. SA made the list, JH didn’t, so just curious – anything change to adjust your opinion on JH, or is it a reflection of SA’s proximity to majors? Thanks again!
Keith Law: Alcantara is closer, little further along as a pitcher, where Hicks has more pure stuff. Hicks has had some little hiccups along the way that Alcantara hasn’t.

Brian: Do you get a Hall vote next year?
Keith Law: I do. I’ll clearly have Bonds, Clemens, Edgar, Moose, Rolen, Schilling, Walker, and Mo, leaving two spots for a decent group of borderline guys, including Halladay, Manny, Sheffield, etc.

Baldy Rob: Is there a decent chance Loaisiga and/or Tate make next year’s list if they continue building on what they showed in the second half of last season?
Keith Law: A chance, yes.

Adam Doctolero: In response to Minnie, I would go with Virtu. I’ve eaten there three times and each time it was the highlight of the trip I was on. Keith is right, the menu is shorter, but for me that’s a good thing. It’s a great vibe with great service and fantastic food and drinks.
Keith Law: Never had a bad meal at either place, really.

JR: Why do you think people have such strong opinions about the HOF? Why not just be happy for the players that get in?
Keith Law: Dunno. People also really seemed to think I would be upset that Hoffman got it. I could not care less about this – having opinions on these matters is my job, and if I can mine humor from it, great.

KS: If Jazz Chisholm stays healthy this season do you expect him to be a candidate for the 2019 top 100 list?
Keith Law: If you asked me last year, I would have predicted he’d make this year’s list. Then he got hurt and had no chance to show any progress. So … I hope so.

Todd: Marcus Stroman is successful, hes short, why cant Chance Adams be?
Keith Law: Yes, all short pitchers are Marcus Stroman. Exactly.
Keith Law: Willie Calhoun is my height. I would suggest you draft him for your fantasy team and not me.

Tom: Do you have any loose rule about how many opinions you want on a player before being comfortable forming a full opinion? Is it different if it is a scout and an exec vs two scouts or just your own eval and nothing else?
Keith Law: Never just me. That’s the one big rule. I think the minimum I need to feel good about a player is three – mine and two others, scouts or execs. After that, more opinions are good (pretty sure I talked to 3 guys who saw Manning and more than 4 on Florial), but there tend to be diminishing returns beyond that.

Joe: Keith, I am moving to the Tampa area for work. Are people allowed to watch GCL games? Not looking for a high level of play, but just a way to kill a few hours here and there.
Keith Law: Yes, usually can just walk in.

Dr. Bob: You once commented that a college player should be in high-A very quickly after signing. Wouldn’t a good high-school signee have advanced that far or farther by age 22? If so, what does that say about how well a player will develop in college vs. how well he will develop at Rookie and low-A?
Keith Law: Depends. Some kids at 18 aren’t physically developed enough to handle the rigors of pro ball, but get there by 21.

Witt Jr.: Where would you rank Witt Jr. and any comps?
Keith Law: He’s 2019 draft. He might as well be a fictional character for me at this point. No, I care more about fictional characters than guys for future drafts.

Rick C: FTR, that was not me that asked if we shouldn’t pay attention to your midseason rankings. Someone took my name, oddly.
Keith Law: That person has gotten progressively nastier, too.

Tom C: Especially because of all the pitching changes in every game, why didn’t Manfred propose “relief pitchers get 2 warm up pitches when they enter the game?
Keith Law: This is one I don’t understand, although of course I’ve never pitched, but can we shift more of the warmup to the bullpen? Require pitchers to be more ready when they come in? My suspicion has long been that we can, but it would cut into commercial time. If you killed mid-inning commercial breaks, games would feel MUCH faster.

qq: Were you surprised by MLBAM/Bob Bowman story?
Keith Law: Nothing and nobody surprises me any more.

Jeff: I know you consider Ohtani a #1 ML SP and don’t buy him as an everyday bat, but would you do anything at all with him as a hitter or just forget it and have him concentrate 100% on pitching?
Keith Law: If he wants to hit, you probably have to find a way to make it work. Plus their current DH might be the worst player in baseball.

Jon: What are your feelings on stumping for or against HOF candidates? Do you think Jonah Keri or Joe Morgan impacted the voting for Raines, Bonds/Clemens?
Keith Law: I’ve always been vocal about whether I would or wouldn’t vote for players – I came out for Raines right away, and wrote about how I thought the all-white electorate was being harder on him than it was on white candidates with similar drug use histories. Whether it affects anything, I don’t know, but I’m not trying to sway voters so much as talk to all of you.

Kevin: Blasphemous Rumors! Nice Pull. Have you played any of the Ticket to Ride Expansion boards? Do you have a favorite?
Keith Law: Europe is great. I have the England and PA boards for the app and haven’t tested them out yet. Also my daughter and I played the France map at PAX Unplugged and it’s very different, I think in a good way.

Brett: If I said Ronald Acuna to your wife, would she have any clue who that was?
Keith Law: I just said it to her, and she said, “Is that like Hakuna Matata? It’s a wonderful phrase.” So that’s a no.

Logan: Thoughts on the Grichuk deal? Thanks, really liked your book.
Keith Law: Grichuk has long been a 4th OF for me, sunk by poor plate discipline, esp recognition of breaking stuff. Greene throws hard, up to 99, trouble repeating, may have to go to the bullpen. Leone is a solid middle reliever when he’s healthy.

Drew: Is Seth Romero’s makeup is main achilles heel or are there other reasons for Nats fans to be skeptical of him?
Keith Law: Not a great delivery either. But you can’t ignore the stuff.

Tom C: It’s funny to me people who complain that players should vote for HoF, MVP, etc because “they played the game”; like it hasn’t been proven 1) they’re just as bad at it as anyone, 2) they have their own personal biases and 3) oh BTW, people will still be mad when the players don’t vote in their own favorite guy.
Keith Law: Aren’t player votes for the All Star Game often worse? Like, they just look at fantasy stats for the current season?

Sparhawk: For a big guy like Joey Wentz his FB velocity seems on the light side. Do you expect he’ll get the FB to mid 90’s consistently?
Keith Law: Velocity is great, but when you have deception and great extension you can do well at solid average. If Allard had that stuff, I’d feel better about him right now than I do.

Jeremy: Where would a healthy Anderson Espinoza rank? Surprised to not see him on there when guys who also missed 2017 due to injury are on the list.
Keith Law: Missed all of 2017, likely to miss most of 2018, never got above A-ball before injury or showed great performance. How many guys who missed 2017 are on the top 100? Reyes, but he was literally in the majors. Kaprielian was a lot more advanced as a pitcher than Espinoza. I think that’s it.

Nick: I don’t drink coffee, but I would like to try to start making/preparing high quality cups of coffee for my wife. Suggestions on where to start?
Keith Law: I’m a pour-over fan myself. I own this $16 Hario V60 dripper and use paper cone filters. And buy good coffee – just find a good local roaster. Tell me in the comments where you live and I’ll see if I know one.

Nic: Help me out?I am so conflicted.I think schilling is 100% a hof’er AND i think he is, and hispersonal views are, disgusting.What do i do?I want to advocate for him but i feel he doesnt derseve it because of his personal life.
Keith Law: HoF should be mostly if not completely about the player, not the person. And the political stuff was largely after his career anyway. I won’t argue against anyone who declines to vote for him, because he’s said some truly awful things, but I would vote for him myself.

Brian in Ahwatukee : Re AJ Puk- you mentioned him as a #2 but also a top LHP. What is the difference? I figure by rarity one a top LHP would be a 1.
Keith Law: He could still be a 1, but I would not say the top LHP in the minors is a future 1 by default. Has to earn it, so to speak, with stuff and command and feel.

Rick C: Sorry to hear that. I still think there’s a flaw in this ranking process, but I’m not going to personally attack you over it.
Keith Law: I’ll put it this way: If I had my druthers, I’d only do the offseason top 100s. I have an extensive process that produces results with which I am comfortable. They’re never perfect, and I could always have done something more, but I know they are well-researched and that I give solid evidence for every ranking decision. Nothing I do in-season can match that. I just don’t have the time when I’m also traveling to games, mixing in amateur stuff with the pro, and writing about major-league topics as they occur.

Kevin: Wow, this KLAW has been long and meaty today……….
Keith Law: I think you all deserved a long chat, since I had only done one in the previous five weeks, and gave you all this content earlier in the week that I know led to lots of questions. And I’m happy to answer them.
Keith Law: Thank you all for reading this week, for showing up here, and for making all of this possible with your support and readership. The org reports will start on Monday, farm rankings tomorrow, and I will try to chat somewhere next week (but perhaps not Thursday, as I have to go to Bristol that day). Twitter’s been a mess of HoF stuff, so if you have questions as we go, my Facebook page is going to be a better place to interact – just leave comments under the articles as I post the links each day. Thanks again!

My latest board game review for Paste covers Pandemic: Rising Tide, a standalone spinoff of the original Pandemic, this time pitting players against rising waters threatening to flood the Netherlands, so players must build dikes and pumps while trying to complete four hydraulic stations to win the game.

Keith Law: My mind’s diseased, even my vision is impaired … it must be Klawchat.

RyderGreen: What’s your take these days on Kyle Lewis? are you bullish on his ability to return and be something close to a GUY?
Keith Law: Bearish until we see him on the field for any consistent length of time. He was not 100% at all last summer or fall.

Roger: If you are the Astros, do you trade Tucker and Fisher and Moran for Gerrit Cole, or just wait for Whitley to make his way through the minors?
Keith Law: You could do both; given their depth, Tucker is the only one of those three I think they’d miss. But I wouldn’t give up Whitley at all. He’s in my top 10 overall prospects.

Devin: Do you think Duggar can handle Centerfield at AT&T, or should the Giants sign someone like Jarrod Dyson?
Keith Law: If they don’t want to sign Lorenzo Cain because of the draft pick, which I understand, sort of, then I’d give Duggar a shot. He’s a really good athlete with more than enough speed for center.

Marvin: If the Cubs sign Darvish would you still have Quintana as your #1 starter?
Keith Law: I think that’s more of an academic debate, but yes, I probably would.

Forrest Boy: Hey Keith, are scouts properly adjusting guys like Forrest Whitley and Walker Buehler’s rate stats? Their K and BB rates are tremendous, but they also never go through the order a 3rd time and average around 4 innings pitched, sometimes they have their pitch count capped. Knowing that, I’m sure their stuff plays up when they can go 100% on every pitch. What should be gathered from that when comparing those guys to Keller, McKenzie, and Kopech who are averaging around 5.5 IP or better while still maintaining good K/BB numbers?
Keith Law: Scouts aren’t adjusting the stats; scouts are scouting. I wouldn’t compare those two guys, either – Buehler’s older, coming off TJ, while Whitley is just 19 and being held back strictly for precautionary reasons. I also do not agree that a pitcher can go 100% on every pitch when facing 18 batters, which Whitley did 8 times last year.

Paul (San Francisco): Requesting your considered opinion on the respective ceilings and likelihood of reaching them for Giolito and L.Castillo. Thank you!
Keith Law: Giolito has top of the rotation potential, although given the performance the last two years and the trouble he had throwing his curveball with the major league baseball last year, I’d probably say more of a #2 starter. I’m expecting some regression from Castillo this year given his total lack of a breaking ball.

Jim: When do you plan to start rolling out the Org. Rankings, Top 100 and Team Top 10’s? Thanks!
Keith Law: January 22nd is the current start date for the package; it’ll roll out over two weeks this year, rather than three.

TR: If you are the White Sox, what do you with A Garcia? What could they reasonably expect to get for him? Appears to be a likely regression candidate.
Keith Law: Yes, he is, given his BABIP, and I would certainly shop him … but there are so many free agent corner guys this year that it may be the wrong time.

Josh: What were your favorite books you read in 2017?
Keith Law: In no particular order: The Fifth Season, The Erstwhile, Betaball, The Underground Railroad, Mister Monkey, Blackout/All Clear, The Last Days of Night, Not a Scientist, The Cooperstown Casebook, Everybody Lies, Lab Girl, Wise Children, Smoke, On Immunity, The Chimes, and Hi, Anxiety!

Jim: Is Gohara, Wright, Allard and Pache enough to get Yelich from the Marlins?
Keith Law: Heh. I’d say yeah, that’s more than enough.

Lucas: Besides Greene, do the Reds have any intriguing pitchers in their farm system that should give me hope that they could win the division in 2020? Or do you think they ultimately have to trade/sign an ace? Thanks
Keith Law: I think they can still hope for someone like Robert Stephenson to take that leap, but you are correct that other than Greene, who is still a long way off, they have a bunch of depth starters but nobody likely to post a 5-WAR season or show up on Cy Young ballots. Mahle’s their best upper-level pitching prospect and I think he has a very high probability of being at least an average starter, but almost no chance of being even a soft #1.

Chloe: Hi Keith. Big fan of your work. Do you think the A’s have the necessary high end prospects to warrant the top-5 farm system ranking that some analysts have bestowed on them?
Keith Law: No. I can’t imagine them in the top five.

Moe Mentum: Which phrase best describes Maikel Franco – “breakout candidate,” “change of scenery guy,” or “not as good at baseball as we thought”?
Keith Law: I’m not expecting a breakout, so one of the others. His pitch selection is why I was concerned about him as a prospect, and unfortunately, it hasn’t improved.

Moe Mentum: Ferris Bueller’s Day Off or Risky Business?
Keith Law: I don’t think I’ve ever seen Risky Business, so FBDO by default.

Nelson: If you were blindfolded and plopped down in the stands of a minor league stadium and given no context, just watching the gameplay would you be able to determine the level?
Keith Law: I doubt it unless I could extrapolate from the players’ apparent ages and sizes.

john wick: I’ve heard positive things about Logan Allen without much detail. What’s his realistic ceiling?
Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter.

Joseph G: Keith, I’ve missed these chats, hope you had a wonderful holiday. Does Luis Urias have an 80 hit tool? I’ve heard some prospect evaluators at least entertaining that grade.
Keith Law: That’s not accurate at all. Anyone tossing that around is more likely trying to get your attention.

Bruce: What are your thoughts on Braden Shipley? He struggled in a few brief call ups last season. Is he a future major league starter?
Keith Law: I would try him in relief in the short term to see if his velocity bounces back at all. His fastball has been down since maybe a year out of college, although his secondary stuff is still intact.

James: I’ve read a few professional prospect evaluators that have Fernando Tatis, Jr and Mackenzie Gore rated similar in their FV, with some placing Gore ahead Tatis, Jr. Is he a top 10 prospect for you? Or is the hype inflated at this point?
Keith Law: This is not the Bad Takes Klawchat. You want the room down the hall.

Dan: Are there any no-go zones in Pandemic: Rising Tide? Or is that just fake news?
Keith Law: (Uncomfortable silence).

Jon : Did you watch the TV Show Homicide: Life on the Streets? Wondering your thoughts compared to The Wire.
Keith Law: Loved it. At the time, I’d never seen anything like it. But Simon’s choice of themes and subjects works better when his dialogue mirrors the way people actually talk.

Robbie: Do you think the angels should splurge for Yu? I don’t think spending huge money on a starting pitcher with an injury history and on the wrong side of 30 is especially smart, but if it helps keep Mike around…
Keith Law: Mike isn’t going anywhere.

Jacos: If Russell or Baez have to be traded who do you trade?
Keith Law: I think Russell has upside remaining while Baez may be topped out, so I’d trade Baez.

Brian: What are your thoughts of Jake Burger? Can he stick at 3B?
Keith Law: Very hard contact but not a 3b.

Mark: You seem to be a fan of Top Chef and baking, but I never see you reference any Great British Bake Off. Are you not a fan of nice even bakes?
Keith Law: Never watched it. Haven’t even watched Top Chef this season.

Baddoo: What grade would you put on Akil Baddoo? Is he a 50 and does he have the chance to be something more? Are we looking at a top 100 prospect possibly?
Keith Law: I don’t put grades like that on prospects; people then focus too much on the single number (the anchoring effect) and not enough on the description. As for top 100, you’ll see in about two weeks.

Chris : How does Jay Bruce deal affect Lorenzo Cain market? What do you think he ends up getting years/$$?
Keith Law: I don’t think the signing of a bad defensive RF with platoon issues affects the market for a good defensive CF without them.

Max: I feel like you addressed this somewhere already (another chat?), but did you decide to take a pass on Top Chef this season due to the John Besh episode? It sounds like they were able to completely remove him, and it’s been a strong season IMO with a really fun group of chefs.
Keith Law: That was one reason – they balked at removing him, then reversed course. Then I heard they let that clown Logan Paul on the show. And given how lukewarm I felt on the last two seasons – Brooke’s victory march, and that guy I can’t even remember who made quite a few sexist comments along the way – I decided to pass.
Keith Law: And the time required for the writeups. Those took forever.

Bryce Harper: How bad is the Bruce deal? The terms seem okay but he doesn’t really fit and it feels like a Wilpons move.
Keith Law: It’s a bad fit and I think it ends up costing Dom Smith playing time. Alderson giving up this fast on Smith seems very un-Sandy-like.

Juan: How much weight do you put into Mateo’s showing at AA Midland and AA Trenton after a lackluster showing in A+? How much, if at all, did he raise his stock? Thanks!
Keith Law: I saw him in Trenton – he looked like a different player, playing harder, making better contact (although I still doubt the power). He gave himself some real value for the Yankees and just the right time.

jay_B: Keith, Buster had Bryant listed as his #4 3B. Curious if you would rank him there as well, or who you’d have in front of him?
Keith Law: I would have ranked him higher.

Dan: Is there a difference between the success Cody Reed (AZ) had in the low minors with average velo, but deception and control (and later struggles at high minors) and Cole Ragans?
Keith Law: Yes, quite a lot of difference.

Seth: Do you think the Rockies decision to give large contracts to their entire bullpen is going to hinder their chances of signing Arenado, Blackmon and/or Lemahieu long term? This seems like a risk considering the volatility of relievers and the ballpark they pitch in.
Keith Law: It might, depending on ownership’s willingness to spend, although I don’t think LeMahieu is someone they need to lock up long term – they can find a 1.5-2.0 win 2b, maybe in their own system.

Brandon: Hi klaw: (a) should the Rockies move Hoffman and/or Tapia; (b) do either/both have material trade value?
Keith Law: Tapia depends a bit on what they plan to do with Blackmon; I would try Hoffman in relief before I shipped him out. He is, however, a poor fit for pitching at altitude.

Cards: What should we make of Delvin Perez at this point?
Keith Law: Very little other than that he’s so young and underdeveloped physically that he still has time to recover.

Jshep12: You buyin’ Bitcoin?
Keith Law: I sold all my bitcoins to buy South Seas stock.

Sal: Brusdar Graterol — Twins think he has four pitches and plan to start him. Is this delaying his is inevitable bullpen career or are their SP beliefs warranted?
Keith Law: I’m not sure why you say that’s what the Twins think. I would continue to start him to see if the breaking ball and changeup continue to improve, as it’s probably an 80 fastball.

Craig: Is Royce Lewis growing on you? Who do you like more between him and Florial?
Keith Law: That’s not close for me. Even if I’m right that Lewis will move off shortstop, he’s a much better hitter than Florial.

JR: The only way the Jay Bruce signing makes sense is if they have some serious concerns about the extent of Conforto’s injury, right? The one spot they are set at is corner OFs, so to use their “limited” resources on a position that is already set makes no sense to me? I realize Conforto won’t be ready on opening day, but I’m sure between Nimmo/journeyman on a 1 year deal, they would’ve been OK in short term.
Keith Law: That could explain it. Or they figure Cespedes is going to miss a chunk of time again. Or they’re done with Smith and Nimmo.

DJoe: Cubs are without a top 100 prospect for the first time in a long time. Being uncharted territory for a cubs fan, is this normal after pieces have been traded for a championship level team, or are they in trouble?
Keith Law: Interesting that you say they’re without a top 100 prospect when I haven’t posted my top 100 (and expect there to be a Cub on it).

Quisenberry’s Sinker: What do Braves do with Surplus of MLB Ready Pitching Prospects once Allard, Soroka are MLB Ready. Do you see them up by July if AAA progress continues?
Keith Law: Someone will get hurt, someone will struggle in AAA … they have tremendous pitching depth, but the odds of them ending up with a surplus for the ML rotation are slim. And even then they could tandem-start two guys to limit innings totals for the season – neither Allard nor Soroka is a huge guy.

Mike: Eric Thames had a couple great months and a couple stinkers last year, and basically no period during which he hit like his overall season numbers. Do you think this year he’ll settle into the middle of that range or toward one of the extremes?
Keith Law: He was awful after April. I think the league figured out fairly quickly how to get him out.

Lyle: Is Eric Filia anything more than an org guy?
Keith Law: Yes. Maybe just an up and down type, but not an org guy.

Joe: Which pospect has the best hit tool in the minors currently? Urias? Hiura?
Keith Law: I think that list has to start with Acuna and Vlad Jr.

Frankelly: I personally think Heliot Ramos is getting way too much hype from his pro debut where people only see the results rather than the underlying struggles and issues. Is he a top 100 guy yet?
Keith Law: I would agree that he’s getting a bit overhyped because his superficial AZL stats were good, and because he’s the #1 prospect in their system.

Matt: I understand the need/want for Yelich in ATL but does it make sense to include more prospects for JT as well? Flowers and Kurt were sold last year and they have some decent prospects in the minors (Cumberland, Jackson, etc.)
Keith Law: I’d understand a prospect trade for Realmuto more than a trade for Yelich. Cumberland looks like a backup, Jackson’s catching wasn’t good in AFL, Herbert hasn’t developed.

addoeh: So A-Rod is now a popular broadcaster and Jeter is an unpopular owner. Wow, things can change quickly.
Keith Law: Life comes at you fast.

Stu J.: There are rumors the Reds will look to move Senzel to 2B (or OF or even SS) and leave Suarez at 3B. What would you do with the IF?
Keith Law: I would leave Senzel at third, because he’s made himself an above-average defender, and build around him. He’s their best prospect, probably a top 10 overall guy, and they should move other players to accommodate him.

ECinDC: Ever read Mason & Dixie by Pynchon? If so, thoughts? Thinking of putting it on the ‘to read’ list
Keith Law: Nope. Loved Inherent Vice, hated Gravity’s Rainbow, didn’t really get Lot 49.

Ed: The lack of dollars being spent on free agents is caused by: A) Teams being smarter / more frugal on what they spend their resources on, B) Teams not committing dollars this off season in preparation for next off season, C) Collusion
Keith Law: First one for sure. I have had agents suggest collusion, but no one has any evidence of that.

Evan White: What to make of this guy? Reports have a 70 on the glove but his bat doesn’t play at 1B. Would you move him to the outfield?
Keith Law: His bat doesn’t play at first?

Brian: How does Gabriel Arias project to you? Will he be the real Padres SS of the future instead of Tatis? Seems to be some buzz around him this offseason during his winter play.
Keith Law: He’s still just 17 and really hasn’t hit anywhere (even in Australia he has just a .310 OBP). I do like Arias’ long-term potential, but it’s entirely potential, and while he can stay at shortstop he’s not the best defender of that whole cluster of Latin American shortstops they have from low-A down.

Dr. Bob: I know you hate the giving of grades to off-season moves, but has any team impressed you with what they’ve done so far?
Keith Law: Not really. Has anyone done enough to warrant it? I feel like no.

HH: Keith, you’ve been one of the better voices speaking out against signing players found guilty of domestic violence. I’m curious where you’d draw the line on employing such people – I wouldn’t want to sign someone like Aroldis Chapman to my team, but I also wouldn’t want to hire him to run my Subway franchise. What happens if everyone felt this way? Economic death penalty, for lack of a better term?
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s really our problem, right? I would rather worry about the victims, who likely need significant financial, medical, and psychiatric assistance, than whether abusers can find jobs.

Brett: Is JP Crawford a better prospect than Scott Kingery at this point, or would you put Kingery about him?
Keith Law: Crawford is their top prospect.

Marshall MN: What do you make of the talk from experts about the so-called inevitability of the Red Sox signing Martinez? It seems odd to me, as there are other ways to address their lack of power without committing to a guy for 7 years.
Keith Law: I get the sense they won’t commit to him for 7 years, but would for 4.

Chris : Marcos Molina a bit of a sleeper this year in Mets system? Would like Mets to put him in bullpen as a multi-inning guy.
Keith Law: Always thought he had to go to the bullpen; his stuff ticked down after TJ, so that seems more inevitable than before.

Tyler: Assuming the Yankees get under the luxury tax this offseason, how aggressive do you think they will be with next years class? Do you think they will absorb the tax penalties to sign 2 mega stars?
Keith Law: They could also try to clear a bad contract or two to sign those 2 stars. That seems like the most likely outcome.

Kevin: What exactly are the Orioles doing? Slow moving for a team with three holes in their rotation.
Keith Law: Likely waiting for the second and third tiers of starters to sign, which means after the first tier signs.

Brett: Assuming a healthier 2018, where do you envision Juan Soto finishing the year? AA?
Keith Law: High-A. Barely played in low-A last year.

Don: I think Andujar will be respectable overall if he is given a fair chance, your opinion?
Keith Law: I do. The rare unheralded Yankees prospect.

Frank: Hey Keith, what are your thoughts on Allard? I’m confused why the industry seems to like him so much. Isn’t he just 88-91? What’s the realistic upside with him?
Keith Law: Some pretty good big league pitchers are “just 88-91,” and he has a knockout curveball.

Stanley: Rumors of a reboot of “The Office” are swirling, with many using the successful return of “Will & Grace” as inspiration. That show kept the same cast, whereas Michael Scott ain’t walking through that door. Do you agree that bringing the show back with supporting players from the first run and other new cast members is likely a mistake?
Keith Law: If they’re not reassembling the cast & the writers from a show’s peak, then a reboot is likely to fail.

Mike: Do you prefer Darvish or Arrietta for the same money/term?
Keith Law: Darvish.

Patty O’Furniture: Thoughts on Johan Camargo?
Keith Law: Utility infielder. Doesn’t have the bat to start.

Steve: Good afternoon Keith, I think I read somewhere you mentioned a family vacation to Aruba…What were your thoughts of the island?
Keith Law: Loved it. The fact that we could walk from our hotel into a little commercial area with shops, restaurants, and of course a Starbucks made it better and less costly (because we weren’t captives of hotel food).

Mark: You’ve said Johan Santana comes up short for you. Santana’s 2003-2010 peak of 1670 IP and 67 ERA- is pretty close to Koufax’s 1961-66 peak of 1632 IP and 63 ERA-. Koufax did more outside that, but was ultimately only a league average pitcher in his first six years. Is that really the difference between going in and not?
Keith Law: Yes. And Koufax is a bit of a special case, too; he doesn’t have a typical Hall career.

Jesus: Do people ever spam you with the same question in hopes that you’ll answer it? What do you do with those people/questions?
Keith Law: Yes. I usually ignore it; that’s not necessary for readers in this chat software and just makes my job harder.

Jake: Since you’re giving out spoilers (i.e., Whitley), is Tatis a top 10 guy?
Keith Law: That wasn’t a spoiler on Whitley – I’ve said it before – and I said in August Tatis was a top 10 prospect.

Paul: Is Ohtani eligible for your lists?
Keith Law: No. I exclude players with NPB and KBO experience; those are major leagues, regardless of MLB’s interest in holding down their salaries. However, if I have an AL ROY vote this year, I would absolutely consider Ohtani, since he’s eligible.

Mike: What’s your opinion on how cold the off season has been? Are teams avoiding long-term deals to not be handicapped by the next free agent season? Should Bob Mueller investigate if there is collusion among the teams?
Keith Law: I feel like he has bigger fish to fry. An orange huffy, specifically.

Dr. Bob: Some love to rail against “tanking” in the style of what Houston and Chicago did. I think this is mislabeled. Neither organization tried to purposely lose a bunch of games to get a top pick. Rather they traded big contract guys who were not going to help the team win to get assets. Maybe they lost 105 games instead of 95 because of that strategy, but it was sound. They should be more concerned about what Miami is doing–unloading good players to make more money.
Keith Law: Agreed. Houston and the Cubs had a strategy to improve in the long term by avoiding that 70-80 win purgatory, trading players who wouldn’t be there 4-5 years down the road for longer-term assets, then filling the gap with short-term signs and/or fringe guys from their own system to sort those players out and possibly flipping some of those guys for prospects too. Dallas Keuchel wasn’t a top prospect, and the kind of pitcher he is now is not reflective of what he was in the minors, but because the Astros were bad, they gave him a shot in the major-league rotation. Maybe he doesn’t get that chance if they’re trying to win a few extra meaningless games in 2014.

Chris: I’m a little weirded out by all the Oprah and The Rock for President stuff. Don’t we need to go back to someone who is actually, you know, qualified for the job?
Keith Law: Yes. And I was surprised how many people took my “Oprah/Portman 2020” joke seriously.

Dan: You were super high on Addison Russell when he was a prospect, why do you think he hasn’t “broken” out yet?
Keith Law: Some is pitch selection, some is the nagging shoulder injury that bothered him most of 2017.

Dr. Bob: What hasn’t Cain been signed yet. Surely there are more than a few teams who could use a guy who could potentially give you a few 5 WAR seasons, even if he is 31.
Keith Law: I think the draft pick is a big impediment; teams are more reluctant than ever to give up a top pick because it wrecks your bonus pool.

Harry: You mention Giolito’s issues “with the major league baseball” is that specifically last year’s juiced ball, or the MLB ball in general as compared to the minors?
Keith Law: The major league and minor league baseballs are different.

Alex: What is your approach for reading a cookbook like The Food Lab? Cover to cover, or reference page/topics as needed?
Keith Law: I look for recipes that interest me and try them. Cookbooks aren’t written to be read cover to cover, and a book of that length and scope is going to include stuff that doesn’t interest or apply to you.

Chris: Thoughts on the band Local Natives? I’ve never seen you mention one of their songs of albums.
Keith Law: Not a huge fan although “Happy Feet” made my top 100 a few years ago.

Brett: Is this as good as Taijuan Walker and Danny Salazar are going to be? Or do you think either will improve?
Keith Law: Both have untapped potential, Salazar needs to get healthy, Walker may just forever be inconsistent.

tvators: Don’t think it makes some sense for Mets to have plan B for injury to Smith or 2 month flop/return trip to AAA rather than just full time Flores/scrap heap Loney type??
Keith Law: A plan B doesn’t cost you 3 years and $39 million. And Smith has hit everywhere in the minors after slow starts at most levels. Assuming his 2017 major-league line – coming from Vegas to the majors – is predictive but his minor league performance isn’t is foolish.

Chris : Thought the Padres return for Solarte was a little light. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Disagree.

TR: As you look at draftees, what do you expect in terms of progress for a first round pick over the first 1-3 years? Pitcher vs position player? HS draftee vs college?
Keith Law: A college player in the first round should be able to start his first full year in high-A, and I’d expect a promotion to double-A before the year ends. A high school player in the first round might be ready for full-season ball, but I don’t assume that such a player who stays in extended and goes to an advanced short-season team is a bust; some high school players need more time, or aren’t ready for the Midwest League.

Larry: Does Alec Hansen profile as a starter for you? He was old for his leagues last year and I was told he loses his release point. He won’t get away with that against more advanced competition.
Keith Law: He does, and I don’t worry about age relative to level much for pitchers, especially not with his kind of stuff.

JJ: Your ESPN colleague Bradford Doolittle wrote that, if he were elected to the HOF, Trevor Hoffmann would immediately be the best reliever enshrined. Do you believe that’s true?
Keith Law: He would be incorrect. Hoyt Wilhelm is already in the Hall, with 19 more WAR than Hoffman and double Hoffman’s innings total.

Mike: just curious why you seem so sure Trout will stay with the Angels? Shouldn’t they be worried about the Phillies, Yankees or Dodgers offering insane money to him in a few years?
Keith Law: He’s under contract through 2020. Signing Darvish now isn’t going to do anything to sway his choice in 2021.

Jim : Would you start Hader of use him as a multi inning reliever? I think it’s a waste to have him as a 1 inning guy.
Keith Law: Reliever. Never bought into him as a starter due to arm action. Filthy stuff though.

DJ: Do you like Estrada as a good utility guy?
Keith Law: Thairo? That’s about right.

Doug: Chances of Alzolay developing an average changeup, and remaining a starter?
Keith Law: I do believe he’s a starter long term.

Brian: What do you think is the Padres logic regarding Hosmer interest? Do it hold water?
Keith Law: It makes no sense whatsoever. I wonder if this is a phantom offer to try to get the Royals to bid against themselves; it would be the worst possible move for the Padres right now.
Keith Law: I have to run to get back on the phone; I may not chat next week but will definitely chat on the 25th, by which point the entire top 100 should be posted, so maybe I should go start writing. Thanks as always for all of your questions.