Chris Crawford and I recorded a one-off show discussing this year’s Academy Awards, going through a dozen or so categories with who we think should win and who we think will win. Check it out if you’re at all movie-inclined.

Keith Law: Now I’ve lost the plot … Klawchat.

Pj: Syndergaard really has no comparables. In your opinion, what are the odds that he can stay healthy with his current arsenal (93 mph slider!) for 200 ip?
Keith Law: Lack of comparables is the real issue. He hasn’t had a serious arm injury so far, and he actually doesn’t seem to throw with that much effort given his velocity. 200 IP may not be the right milestone given usage patterns, but he’s gone 179.2 and 183 already; I see no reason he can’t do that regularly.

Frank: Who do you think wins the 4th outfield job in STL? Oneill, Bader, Garcia, or free agent yet to be signed?
Keith Law: Bader, I’d guess. Not sure signing an OF makes any sense at all for them.

Todd Boss: Fun question: I don’t believe we’ve yet had a player from the 2016 draft debut in the majors. Who is your pick for the first one to debut at this point?
Keith Law: Austin Hays debuted last year. I think he was the first … but of guys who haven’t debuted so far, I’d guess Puk or Senzel for the next one.

Damian: Hi Keith. Realistically eta for an everyday middle infield of Tatis Jr and Urias? Also, over/under average 3 WAR for Hosmer in his first 5 years?
Keith Law: Under for Hosmer. Tatis may still move off SS; I’ve called that an even money proposition, which I think is more optimistic than the industry consensus (which is that he’s going to get so big he’ll move to 3b or RF). I think Urias debuts this August or so. Tatis more likely 2019.

Perplexed: Need your help…I love reading a writer’s baseball analysis, but every chat he gets off topic and his heart bleeds all over my screen and I end up having to replace it. Your advice?
Keith Law: Seems like this is your own fault. You should make better decisions.

Florida Project for Best Pic: How do we get the Braves to flip-flop Albies and Gohara’s diets?
Keith Law: Ironically, they’re both pretty big drinkers. That would be my bigger concern.

Dan: Your fellow coffee connoisseur and baseball junkie, Andy Baggarly, wrote a great article on Chris Stratton’s curveball and the amazing spin rate he generates on it. Not sure if it really means it’s a great pitch or not, but regardless, do you see Chris Stratton pitching like a solid 4/5? Is there enough stuff, control, command in that arm?
Keith Law: I’ll check that piece out. He had a tremendous slider in college at Miss St, but his arm speed dropped off after he signed and hasn’t really come back. A 5, sure, a 4, maaaaaybe.

Jake Burger: Does this adversely affect my ability to stick at third?
Keith Law: TBD. Either you’ll have no loss in mobility at all, in which case you’re still a work in progress, or you’ll lose some mobility and then you’ll have to go to first. I don’t think there’s an in between here. But we won’t know anything till you’re back. (Get well soon.)

Jay: Over/under 10 pitchers on your top 100 list to succumb to TJ this year? One and counting.
Keith Law: Under. I’ll go with 7.5 as my o/u line.

Jay: Thoughts on the whole Acuna wearing his cap sideways thing?
Keith Law: MLB needs to stop asking Latin players to act less Latin. This is fucking stupid – show up on time, play hard, I don’t care if you wear your pants backwards like Kris Kross.

The Sloth: Upside for Alex Speas if he can ever locate?
Keith Law: It’s #1 stuff and athleticism but I don’t think there’s even a 5% chance of this.

Perry O. Dontist: You’ve traditionally given little value to relievers as prospects. I understand your thinking on that point, but as the relief role seems to be evolving, if a club tried to develop an ‘Andrew Miller type’ reliever (and he had success) would you think more highly of him as a prospect than you ordinarily would any minor league reliever?
Keith Law: Yes, if said pitcher showed he could handle the greater workload in fewer games (50 G 100 IP, not 65 G 70 IP).

G Dubya: What are your thoughts on the Twins signing Logan Morrison instead of another starting pitcher?
Keith Law: Solid value for them, gives them OBP they could use. Not sure it’s “instead” given the cost.

Dunkin’ Donuts: What is the chance Braves OF prospect Drew Waters becomes a star player?
Keith Law: Very low.

Perry O. Dontist: Thoughts on Mike Jeffcoat’s email?
Keith Law: For readers who missed it, the Texas Wesleyan coach emailed a potential recruit from Colorado and said he doesn’t take HS players from that state because too many of them test positive for weed – pro tip, stop testing for weed, it’s irrelevant to baseball and mostly harmless – and then made a crack about blaming “liberal” politicians. (Drug decriminalization isn’t liberal so much as libertarian; it has the conservative angle of decreasing government resources spent chasing, prosecuting, and imprisoning weed offenders, while also generating revenues from a new sin tax.) The school has already said it was inappropriate and they seem to be taking corrective actions. That said, if any coach is dumb enough to say he’s ignoring an entire state – not Alaska – then it’ll show in the standings, won’t it?

dave: I asked about this last week. What’s the opposition to requiring a pitcher to face two batters to improve pace of play?
Keith Law: Basically kills off specialist relievers. And with most players showing modest platoon splits, you might end up with so many unfavorable matchups for the team in the field that the gains are cancelled out by more men on base. (That’s speculation.) I’d prefer cutting time between pitching changes myself.

Lyle: Given how empty the cupboard is, if the Mariners don’t manage to pull off a playoff berth this year as the Cano-Cruz-Felix era winds down, how long will it realistically be before they can come up with a playoff berth in the future? 5 years? 7? 10? 50?
Keith Law: I think Houston has shown what you can do in 5 years if you tear it all down to the studs.

CB: What person who should already have been shown the door will cost the Angels more wins this year: Mike Scioscia or Albert Pujols?
Keith Law: Pujols.

Andy: How much of a mental Rolodex do you have of players? If I ask something about Ben Rortvedt or Austin Gomber (to pick two random nowhere near top 100 guys) do you know exactly about them, or do you have to go to a spreadsheet to find your notes on them?
Keith Law: I know those guys offhand, but I don’t know every player you might throw at me; I could probably answer you on a few hundred guys in the minors, then right now maybe 40-50 guys in this year’s draft class. I don’t use a spreadsheet, though. Too hard to read quickly.

Andy: When you read to your daughter with voices do you just resort to the accents/characterizations from the movie? I have a hard time remembering the voice for a character if it’s different than the movie accent.
Keith Law: Yep. My Snape wasn’t very good but I was very proud of my Dumbledore and my Dobby.

Archie: What do you think of Mike Krukow’s idea to shorten between inning breaks and recoup the advertising money lost by putting small ad patches on the player uniforms?
Keith Law: I’m really OK with that. I’m fine with ads on the screen between pitches or at bats too. I would think advertisers would prefer that because viewers aren’t walking away or distracted.

Erwin: What do you think of Nander de Sedas? Top 10 pick, stay at short?
Keith Law: Maybe top 10 pick, definitely first round, stays at short.

Ramon Neopolitano III: Hey Keith- lately, I’ve seen tons of media and fans act as if Manny Machado to the Yankees is a done deal already. While I do think they’re probably the favorites to sign him, why do we have articles (USA Today) implying it’s a foregone conclusion? Aren’t the White Sox and Phillies expected to go hard after him, too?
Keith Law: You can pretty well ignore anything that calls a free agent signing with a certain team a foregone conclusion eight months before they can even file. That’s clickbait.

KOK: Have you cooked anything interesting Sous Vide recently?
Keith Law: Have made duck a few times that way – so much easier to get a duck breast perfectly medium-rare sous vide.

Karl: Is there any sort of service you’re aware of that allows someone to test/rent board games without buying? I’m intrigued by some that you talk about but am wary of putting down a lot of money for them without knowing if I’d like them.
Keith Law: A lot of cities have board game cafes where you can go play stuff for a small fee or for the cost of food & drink. Also, conventions like Gen Con or PAX Unplugged charge admission but then there’s lots of open gaming.

Kevin: Any more insight on what substance Whitley was using? How much effect would this suspension have on his Top 100 ranking if you were to rank again?
Keith Law: Zero effect.

JJ: I know you’re not really a football guy, but I thought you’d enjoy this quote from new Raiders’ coach Jon Gruden, on using the team’s analytics department: “I’m trying to throw the game back to 1998. I’m not going to rely on modern technology. I will certainly have some people that are professional that can help me from that regard. But I still think doing things the old fashioned way is a good way.”
Keith Law: Good for him. I never liked the Raiders anyway.

Josh: Just spent a week in Scottsdale and your food guide was indispensable. How much does Whitley’s suspension hurt his development?
Keith Law: I don’t think it hurts much at all, because he wasn’t going to throw 160 innings or pitch six full months anyway. Maybe he loses four or five starts he would have otherwise made.

Grant: Alice in Chains or Pearl Jam?
Keith Law: Peak AiC. But the current incarnation is not good.

Nolan W: How much do you buy into framing metrics in their current form, specifically how the data is being translated to runs/WAR? In my judgment, the raw data captured by these metrics is generally in very close alignment with what the eye test tells us in terms of identifying good receivers vs bad ones. At the same time, it’s a little jarring to see Baseball Prospectus slap a 6 WAR on Tyler Flowers largely on the strength of superb framing stats.
Keith Law: Teams seem to think this is at least directionally correct. I do wonder if a player whose framing was worth, say, 3 WAR in one year is also likely to come back down towards the average pretty hard the next year. We don’t have a ton of framing data but there seems to be a lot of year to year volatility in it, implying that while it is a skill, there’s also some randomness involved too.

Derek: The two most coveted position players in baseball are a SS that can hit and a C that can hit (we seem to have a number of the former these days but not as many of the latter). What was the scouting report on Bryce Harper as an amateur C? Could he have been a 40 defender there? Assuming his bat would have developed the same way (maybe an implausible assumption), that’s probably more valuable than what he is in RF. Did the Nats make a mistake moving him off C?
Keith Law: Could have been a 50-60 defender back there. At least a 70 arm in practice, 80 arm strength. Hell of an athlete, of course. Liked doing it too. But you’d lose 30 games a year guaranteed, and if he’s had injury trouble in the outfield, it probably would have been worse at C.

Greg: What’s your take on the slow free agent market? Just a function of circumstances or are the owners up to no good? I admit to being a bit suspicious but I obviously have nothing concrete with which to back that up.
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s collusion. I think it was a weak market, overstuffed with players without homes – 1b/dh/lf types, mostly LHB – combined with a general philosophy against long-term contracts for hitters in their 30s or pitchers at all.

The Sloth: How big of an upside does Basabe (Luis Alexander of Chicago) possess? Is 20/20 a possible best case scenario?
Keith Law: Sure. I think he could be an above average regular if healthy.

Keith Kristol: You’ll be on the frontlines for the inevitable U.S. intervention in Syria, right? You definitely should be considering you’ve been peddling disgusting regime change propoganda. Remember the gas attack the “moderate” rebels were responsible for in 2013? Maybe you should consider that when these obviously false reports about Assad “gassing his own people” come out. Or you could actually find news sources outside of Netflix documentaries, Teen Vogue, and WaPo. Seriously, you should be ashamed of yourself.
Keith Law: You seem unwell. Or unhinged. By the way, from Amnesty International, on Syria buying materials to manufacture chemical weapons from North Korea: “But to help the Syrian government – which has repeatedly used chemical weapons against civilians – replenish its supplies would be a particularly egregious betrayal of humanity.” Or look at the state’s sieges of its own cities/regions like Ghouta, Raqqa, Aleppo. Hundreds of dissidents forcibly ‘disappeared.’ Assad’s longtime support of Hezbollah and other terrorist movements. I’m not sure who you think you’re defending here … or what you think I’ve even supported, other than writing about the two excellent documentaries on the crisis, Last Men in Aleppo (Oscar nominated) and City of Ghosts.

Bret: There’s been a lot of talk in Toronto about the Blue Jays using Danny Jansen as the backup to Russell Martin for much of this season — maybe not out of the gate, but perhaps from the middle of the season onwards. What kind of impact would that have on Jansen’s development?
Keith Law: Might help him if he gets to work more with the major league coaching and pitching staff. I think he can hit, and he’s not that young. But he needs a lot of work on receiving & working with pitchers.

JR: The best news in spring training is no news right? You don’t want to see your favorite team/players in any reports – just routine, injury free spring training.
Keith Law: Yep. I ignore most ST news, but injuries are tangible and at this time of year often really bad.

Jake: New college baseball fan here. Going to the University of MN baseball tournament this weekend. AZ, WA, and UCLA are the other teams participating. Any players from those teams worth paying close attention to?
Keith Law: Joe Demers at UW is a prospect. Arizona and UCLA are as bad as I can remember them being. And ASU is worse. (You didn’t ask, I just had to point that out.)
Keith Law: The best college baseball prospect in the state of Arizona isn’t at Arizona or ASU (Wong at Grand Canyon). How wrong does that sound?

BJinIndiana: First–finally bought Smart Baseball and loved it. I dislike dust jackets though, so I was very pleasantly surprised to see the green/brown colors underneath.
Keith Law: I wish I could take credit. Glad you liked it, though!

Tommy: Between Garver and Haase, who has more ability to stick and hit with some pop?
Keith Law: Haase I think has more everyday potential than Garver. Both big league backups at least.

That Guy in Detroit: Keith, thanks for the chat. Do you think there’s any way that Kelenic moves up enough for the Tigers to consider him 1-1?
Keith Law: I’d be truly shocked.

Sadie: Dbacks should blow it up after this year , correct ? Especially if Goldy walks
Keith Law: They have a $14.5 million option on him for 2019, which they will exercise. Very much worth exploring a trade for him and Greinke after this season, though. They could get a tremendous return, and clear some money to add elsewhere, without blowing the entire team up – they have some solid young pieces with a few years of control left. If they extend Goldschmidt, though, they might still trade Greinke to get rid of the contract but keep everything else intact.

Josh: Likelihood of the following outcomes for Lincecum (assuming he’s a RP only): 1) totally ineffective, washes out quickly 2) sticks around but isn’t very good, 3) adds some value as a middle reliever, 4) excels and becomes a closer/relief ace
Keith Law: I think 2 is most likely.

silvpak: given austin barnes’ elbow twinge this spring, utley’s advanced age, kelbert ruiz and will smith on the horizon, and forsythe coming to the end of his deal, what’s the likelihood LAD will, as the season progresses, start getting barnes more 2b experience? i have visions of craig biggio dancing in my head.
Keith Law: He has over 1400 innings at 2b in pro ball, so I don’t think he needs experience there. I do think they’ll turn to him if they have a need in-season at 2b or 3b.

Sally Fan: Would you send Juan Soto back to Hagerstown for the start of 2018, given his relatively short season there (he’d still be young for the league) or send him to Potomac?
Keith Law: I’d probably bump him up to Potomac. Hagerstown isn’t a great stadium or town anyway.

Nic: Chatting on Purim-I like this. Do you think the yankees are still the number 2 farm system after the drury trade?
Keith Law: It’s Purim? I had no clue. I should have made hamantashen. Yes, I do. They gave up two fairly minor prospects.

Fastball Velocity: How do I disappear from specific players? For example, Kolby Allard. Why has his velocity decreased so much in just one calendar year? You’ve mentioned his frame, but are there any other reasons?
Keith Law: Guys wear down, get hurt, lose muscle over the long season. Allard may just not have the stamina to be a good 180-inning starter. I love his upside if he shows this was just a one-year blip, though.

Tommy Pacu: Moncada recently: 0-3 on 7 pitches with two strikeouts. Is his swing and miss a big concern for Sox fans?
Keith Law: It is a big concern, yes.

Vince: Keith, who are some guys you’ll be watching in the Carolina League this year that weren’t there last year?
Keith Law: Ask me when we have rosters in April. I don’t really even think about that stuff until spring training ends.

Sadie: Do you like sausage or bacon more ? Hasbrown or home fries ?
Keith Law: Bacon. Hashbrowns. But I like all of these.

Tom: Keith, if they wanted to, could the Orioles even give away Davis or Trumbo, or do both have negative value?
Keith Law: Doubt you could give away Davis’s contract. Trumbo’s maybe but for no return.

Scouting: How hard is it to learn how to scout players? I’d like to dabble in it a little bit for fun, and I’d like to know where to start. Thanks!
Keith Law: I don’t think you can dabble in this, sorry. So much of scouting is about building up a mental database of players over the course of years of doing it. It’s why I don’t read or refer to many blogs that try to do scouting reports; you can’t just buy a radar gun and go to a game and know how to scout.

Scott from FLA. Cubs fan: National League West and Central loaded, and Mets get to play Marlins Braves and Phillies A LOT. Huge advantage—- Disparity for Wild Card??
Keith Law: Yes, but first the Mets have to be good (healthy) enough to take advantage of this.

Matt: So Russia has a video of nukes headed towards Florida and Trump refuses to acknowledge sanctions let alone a possible nuclear attack. At what point does the GOP come to terms that our president is a danger to America?
Keith Law: The BBC podcast The Inquiry looked at the 2017 cyberattack on Ukraine that eventually affected over 60 countries, and the indirect evidence that Russia was behind it. It shut down hospitals and other critical systems here in the US. You’d think we’d do something about that, since it cost American businesses real money. (It’s their most recent episode, and that podcast in general is one of my favorites. One topic, 23-24 minutes, with four experts discussing it in turn.)

Charlie: I honestly think you should give this season of Top Chef a try. There has been some fantastic cooking recently and it’s the funniest group of chefs in a long time. I can’t defend the Logan Paul choice as a guest judge early on, but you mentioned you heard nachos was a winning dish. It was actually the losing dish in an admittedly weak tailgate challenge.
Keith Law: I’m not going back to start it now. Season’s starting, and plenty of other good stuff to watch. Unsolved episode one was fantastic.

David (VZLA): You’re Cashman…. Andujar or Drury to start the season?
Keith Law: Andujar starts, Drury on the roster of course.

John: Whats do you think is the bigger hold up for good middle of the rotation options line Lynn and Cobb, dollars or years?
Keith Law: Lynn has a pick attached, right? I think that’s a killer for guys left out there. Years probably a secondary factor.

Larry: Thoughts on unions? I agree whole heartedly with their purpose, but I also think they can be too powerful. I have a friend that missed 3 weeks of work without calling in, got “fired,” and he says he can’t be fired because he’s in the union. Sure enough two days later he got his job back. That’s pretty frustrating from my point of view and I hate that they have that much power. But the general purpose is great.
Keith Law: Unions also tend to raise costs to the end consumers, too. But if you had no unions, the balance would tip heavily in favor of capital (ownership). And they already have the money to beat you in court.

Craig: Who do you think wins the 3rd SD OF Job? Let the lottery ticket Franchy go for it and see if the tools translate?
Keith Law: Would love to see that.

John: After signing Morrison it looks like Vargas is on his way out in MN. Does he have any trade value?
Keith Law: Don’t think so. Up and down guy at best.

Tony: Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe you’ve commented that the Pirates player development system hasn’t had success in changing swing angles to increase power. I read comments from the Pirates that they hoped with an adjustment to Bryan Reynolds’ swing angle his power would begin to play and he’d fulfill his potential. Question: do you think such a project is generally feasible and, in this specific instance, how high is Reynolds ceiling if he is able to make this adjustment?
Keith Law: I think it’s feasible for guys who already have some feel to hit and some natural power. I would love to get a time machine and try this with Ryan Sweeney, the best 5 o’clock power hitter I ever saw (who couldn’t do it in games, obviously).

Greyson: Have you heard any buzz on Tyler Kolek? Is he back near 100 or are those days over?
Keith Law: Check his stats from last year. If he’s 100, it’s to the backstop now.

Stu: The Reds are trying Senzel at SS… chance he sticks?
Keith Law: I think nearly zero.

Brian: A national reporter quoted a scout today saying that JP Crawford isn’t a good defender. How can any scout possibly think that?
Keith Law: No clue. Some scouts don’t like the way he plays – I’ve heard that on Brendan Rodgers too – and that may be coloring that one guy’s opinion on JPC. I think Crawford might be a 70 defender if he works at it.

Jack: Thoughts on Jose Israel Garcia? I’m falling in love with the tools from what I’m reading, but it’s so hard to find any video on the guy.
Keith Law: Everything i have on him is in the ‘just missed’ column. I’ve never seen the guy – almost no one has outside of a few teams who scouted him last June.

JM: Album yet to be released that you are most anticipating?
Keith Law: Courtney Barnett, Frank Turner, Speedy Ortiz.

Tye: Why are you so low on Gonsalves? Is his ceiling more of a 4/5? Will he be better than replacement level?
Keith Law: How am I low on him? He’s a lefty with no average breaking ball and fringe-average velocity. I don’t think he’s more than a 4.

Sean: I had a discussion with a co-worker about pitching injuries. My co-worker tried to make the case that the pitchers of old were more durable than today’s pitchers because of innings/pitch limits imposed today. I know this a preposterous claim, but I want to find a better way to illustrate to him that this not the case than just stating that reserve clause age pitchers were less incentivized to report injuries than today’s pitchers. Do you have area I can look to for greater knowledge on the issue?
Keith Law: They also didn’t throw anywhere near as hard as today’s pitchers. I think the average fastball velocity has been creeping up steadily for about 20 years now.

Chris : Knowing how much you love Chvrches but how you’re not a fan of Matt Berninger’s voice, how torn were you on whether to like the new Chvrches single featuring him?
Keith Law: I wasn’t torn at all. It’s terrible. So is “Get Out.”

Brian: I want to follow up on a question I asked last week: while most saw Mickey Moniak as a below dollar sign in a weak draft. But almost every draft analyst seemed to agree w/the Phillies that he had a good hit tool. That seems to have been exposed an incorrect., So what I’m wondering is how a consensus like that develops that’s incorrect? Is it something about what scouts saw or is it related to projecting how a guy will hit better pitching?
Keith Law: Scouts saw him hit well against good pitching as an amateur. I don’t know that I’d say it’s “incorrect;” you’d have to give him another year before going that far. I’d say that his hit tool isn’t as advanced today (present tool) as we thought. He might still hit.

Adam Doctolero: I find the research that has been done regarding the juiced baseballs to be fascinating and pretty damning for MLB, but I have a hard time reconciling that with their obsession with shorter games. Is MLB really dumb enough to not recognize that more offense leads to longer games, or are they just trying to have their hot fruit and eat it too?
Keith Law: Probably the latter. They’d love three-hour games with lots of homers. I guess you could do that with a giant strike zone?

Noah: Nats’ Jefry Rodroguez a prospect for you?
Keith Law: Saw him right before the suspension. A prospect, not an elite one.

Tom: So why are we fighting about ideas to stop school shootings? Lets do a bunch of stuff, stricter gun laws, armed security guards at schools, stronger security measures in schools, why is it always just one idea against another instead of a compromise where we put pieces of everyones thoughts together?
Keith Law: I can say for myself that a lot of the proposals for “stronger security measures” are going to be very expensive and produce very little benefit. (Some such measures, like metal detectors, just create new soft targets because they slow entry and crowds build up outside the building.) I want safer schools; I don’t want our governments spending a billion or so dollars on measures that won’t work.

Oscar: Debating getting a French Press or Pour Over for my office? Where do you fall? Any particular models you recommend?
Keith Law: Pour-over takes more time, but makes better coffee. I have a Hario, which was maybe $24.

Andy: Ken Griffey Jr also used to disrespect the game, by wearing his hat backwards.
Keith Law: Yes he did. So disrespectful.

Jim Nantz: Lincecum as a closer intrigues me if he’s actually throwing 90-93 as reports have suggested. Think he’s got anything left?
Keith Law: Unlikely, not impossible. Let’s see how hard he’s throwing when he throws three times in four games.

Scott: Please help me settle an argument with a friend. Does momentum exist in baseball? I cite the Sela and Simonoff study, but he showed me that Bill James believes it is possible it exists. What is your view?
Keith Law: It does not exist. Someone believing a thing is possible does not make it possible. (And your friend used a classic appeal to authority. “Keith Law believes it does not exist” isn’t a good argument either. Instead, tell him to show you evidence that this invisible, important thing is actually real.)

Craig: Where will Rodgers End up for the Rockies? Is he good enough to push Story out or is the more realistic thing to do is to move to second and move DJ?
Keith Law: I think the odds of Rodgers going to 2b or 3b are increasing.

Sandy Kazmir: How soon do you think we’ll see teams turning away from strikeout-prone hitters?
Keith Law: I believe some teams are already hunting for those guys – not just in the majors, but in the draft too.

Mike: Re: Acuna. I don’t think anyone can say they didn’t love watching the DR and PR play in the WBC last year. Watching Baez, Lindor, and Correa was so much fun every game.
Keith Law: If you didn’t love watching those dudes, you probably should go watch golf.

Rick Giolito: Keith, I went to all SS pans from Anodized but I’m having trouble keeping food from sticking. Help!
Keith Law: Stainless steel? I would guess you need to use more fat when cooking. Anodized is truly nonstick. Stainless steel is not nonstick – it’s great for searing or browning foods where you intend to use the brown bits left on the pan (fond) by deglazing.

Smith: What do you expect from Brent Rooker this season? What level should he begin at, how soon do you think he will be in Minneapolis?
Keith Law: Start in high-A, and bump him to double-A if he rakes there again. Older guy so get him moving. So far, very good with him.

Matt: Schilling is a Parkland truther. WTF happened to him? Was he always that crazy?
Keith Law: No. I wouldn’t have been able to work with him if he were a hoaxer – I remember him specifically saying in the green room that he thought Alex Jones’ Sandy Hook hoaxerism was reprehensible. Now … I wasn’t going to let this shit affect my Hall ballot, but I think he just obliterated my principles.

Andy: Andrew Miller was also the top college pitching prospect and a top 10 draft pick, who failed at starting. So what teams need to do to develop the next “Andrew Miller type” is to have starting pitchers who have big stuff but may lack the control or enough pitches to last 6 innings.
Keith Law: Or the durability to go 180-200. This is something I’ve said about McCullers, and Fulmer, and Severino (who more than held up last year).

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: The cooked hat things kills me. It has nothing to do with the player’s national origin. It’s like a crooked painting hanging on the wall. I have the overwhelming urge to run onto the field and straighten Strop’s or Rodney’s hat.
Keith Law: OK but that’s your OCD, no? (I’m a little bit the same way myself.)

Steve: A healthy Blake Swihart that can catch ~50 games, play 2B and some OF would be a wildly valuable guy if he’s average defensively, right? Chances he puts up a 2 win year?
Keith Law: Yep. I’m a big Swihart fan. If he’s healthy, and throwing fine, then I’ll bet on him going over 2 WAR.

Greg: Random question, have you tried an escape room? If so thoughts?
Keith Law: Only in board game form.

Kris: When reporters say IFAs are “linked” to a team does that almost guarantee that the player will sign with the linked team?
Keith Law: Yes. They have an oral agreement in place. This is illegal and happens all the time.

ScottyG: I know they shouldn’t, but WILL the Rays trade Archer this spring? If so, do the Cardinals have what it takes to make this happen? Archer/Martinez/Reyes has a nice ring to it….
Keith Law: At this point, I wouldn’t drop my price if I were the Rays. Try again in July.

Tommy Pacu: Hey – Alaskan here! Jeez, no love for the biggest state? Curious as to your thoughts on competition level of Alaska summer league. Lots of big names cycled through in the past but you never mention the league… is it relevant prospect wise these days?
Keith Law: Not any more, sadly. Would love to go scout there, though!

That Guy in Detroit: Keith, got any new metal to recommend?
Keith Law: The new Tribulation album is incredible.

ML: You think Tatis, Guerrero, or Bichette could make his MLB debut this season?
Keith Law: I’d bet on no for each of them.

Tom: Does Ryan Vilade have the talent to be a top 100 prospect someday? Thanks.
Keith Law: Yes.

Jamal: Another way to test out board games is to check out your local library as they are increasingly available to rent.
Keith Law: That I have not seen, although my local branch does host a game night every month.

Todd Boss: Texas Wesleyan went ahead and fired that coach: http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/22615612/texas-wesleyan-…
Keith Law: And there you go. I had a feeling they might, but I don’t know that this was truly a firing offense. It’s not comparable to saying you wouldn’t recruit a Muslim or black or gay player.

Dave: You seem to think pretty highly of Luis Medina given his “sleeper” status. Do you think he’ll have starter control/command as he matures?
Keith Law: I do. Hoping to see him this year at some point.

Humor me: In high school, I ran a 3.99 as a lefty from home to first. On the 20-80 scale, what is grade is that for speed?
Keith Law: About a 70.

ML: You a Denilson Lamet believer? #2 potential?
Keith Law: No. LHB killed him last year.

Tim : Do you think Tim Beckham has finally figured it out? Big league regular?
Keith Law: Great for two weeks after the trade, then back to normal.

MSS: Healthy lunches to eat in the office that aren’t salad?
Keith Law: I eat yogurt with granola and fruit for lunch almost every day.

Steve: I know your lukewarm on Sixto, but if he were to continue his path to potential of being an “ace” as some other scouts have claimed, what would you want to see from him this year?
Keith Law: I am not lukewarm on him. That’s just ridiculous – look where I ranked the kid.

Sandy Kazmir: Are you of the opinion that it is more likely that a good contact batter can add power than a good power hitter can add contact or is it too much of an individual thing to generalize like this?
Keith Law: You’re probably right that it’s too individual, but I’ll play along and pick the former over the latter.

Kwame : Is there a data driven way to determine how much managers help or hurt a team? Is this something teams do in some way? I think we all know managing a bullpen, not bunting etc helps but is there a way to rank managers?
Keith Law: I would bet teams track some of that stuff in ways we don’t/can’t.

Jesse: What are your thoughts on the legacy game format in general? As much as I love the concept, I’m still put off by the idea that I can’t replay the game through once it’s done. Plus I would think it tanks resale value.
Keith Law: Charterstone has a recharge pack you can buy to start over on the second side, and then you can continue to play it more without the story part. That’s part of its brilliance.

Todd Boss: Keith Kristol’s “question” reminds me of the quote from the Howard Stern movie, when the program director (when told that people who hated Stern listened longer than his fans), said, “If they hate him … why do they listen?”

If they hate you keith … why are they asking you questions and reading your content?
Keith Law: I will never, ever understand that.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Just a tip, here are three things you aren’t changing very many people’s minds on: politics, religion, sexual orientation. Just a tip from your friendly Blue Eye.
Keith Law: You’ll notice I don’t discuss religion … pretty much ever.

Dan: Any Southeast PA prospects to go watch? Sianni, Helverson, Guilbe, Kelchner?
Keith Law: Siani for me – he’s probably the only one I’ll go see.

Craig: Ohtani is a bust! Look at his spring training stats. Only kidding but did you see or learn anything from watching him pitch that you didnt know?
Keith Law: I didn’t watch. I’ll go see him when I’m there – watching two tune-up innings from the CF camera isn’t going to show me anything.

Anon: My doctor has talked to me about taking Lexapro for general anxiety. While I’d appreciate the relief, I’m worried about how much of my identity would be affected. I’ve dealt with anxiety all my life and worry that who I am as a person might change. From your experience did you feel like you “changed” when you started medication?
Keith Law: I did change, but only for the better. Hit me up offline if you have more questions – I took it for five years.

JJ: Did you make a “Best Picture” pick for this year, or do I have to listen to the podcast you mentioned at the top of the chat?
Keith Law: You can listen to that or wait for a post here on Sunday.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: For the people crying about divisions–Central has Pirates and Reds; $100 says Phillies and Braves are better than both.
Keith Law: Probably true, although I wouldn’t sleep on the Reds’ pitching. Their bullpen could be tremendous.

Jeremy: When are you headed to Phoenix or Florida this year?
Keith Law: Phoenix first, but possibly detouring to Florida for a day to see a HS player, then Florida the 21-27 (I’m boxed in on both ends for that trip).

Paul: Do you think any of the remaining top free agents misses a significant amount of games from being unsigned?
Keith Law: It’s inevitable, I think.

Jack: Do you ever encounter really talented players that just don’t give a shit? I coach high school soccer and have a kid who could play professionally but he’d rather party. It’s so aggravating to see someone waste their potential.
Keith Law: Yep. Donavan Tate comes to mind.

Dr. Bob: Could changing the launch angle of a hitter without natural power just turn bloop hits into fly outs? Launch angle is not the answer by itself, is it?
Keith Law: No, it’s not. You’d better hit the ball hard first, and then work on launch angle.
Keith Law: OK, gotta run, sorry I’m missing so many more of your questions but I ran over to try to get to more. I’ll be at Auburn tomorrow night, weather permitting on both ends of the trip, so if you’re there feel free to say hi. Thank you as always for reading and chatting!

New content – I reviewed the amazing competitive legacy game Charterstone for Paste, and wrote up the three-team Souza-Drury trade and JD Martinez signing for Insiders.

Keith Law: Don’t let the walls cave in on you. Klawchat.

addoeh: Please rank these common reactions to dad jokes. A) Subject turns to you and approves of joke. B) Subject turns to you and disapproves of joke. C) Subject turns away from you trying to stifle laughter.
Keith Law: Everyone laughs. Some people just try to hide it.

Scott: What’s a proper punishment for these disgusting conspiracy theorists? Have them fired from their jobs? Exiled? Beheaded in the town square? I mean who wouldn’t blindly trust our outstanding corporate media and government despite a history of false flags, CIA black ops, and programs like Mockingbird?
Keith Law: Fired works for me. And banned from social media. False flag operations that took place a century ago aren’t relevant to claims that there’s a network of crisis actors paid by a specific Hungarian Jew with the complicity of all media … you idiot.

Ray Grace: I just read a fascinating article on the Athletic about Alex Wood going full time out of the stretch instead of the windup, in part because Strausburg had so much success doing that last year. I’m curious of your thoughts on that.
Keith Law: Whatever he’s comfortable with. Dude still really has no history of staying healthy as a starter.

Seb: Keith – I understand Austin Beck is kind of a lottery ticket for the A’s and why he wasn’t included in most of the reputable Top 100 lists. However, he was the 6th pick less than 9 months ago. What do you see as his ceiling? Thanks and keep up the good work!
Keith Law: Ceiling is at least an above-average regular in an outfield corner … I guess CF is possible given his speed, but he’s a long way off. The problem for him if you’re placing value on him today is probability. There’s a high risk he never gets out of AA, given where his approach is right now and what he did last summer.

Mike: I was looking at various minor league MVPs and curious if you had any opinions about either Darick Hall or Fernando Kelli. There’s almost nothing out there about Kelli.
Keith Law: That’s because Kelli hasn’t played in the US yet. Hall was 21 in low-A, not a prospect, older guy with power and poor plate discipline.

Albert: Hey KLaw, love your chats. Rangers questions, do you think Gallo takes a huge step forward this year, perhaps even into Aaron Judge territory?
Keith Law: I’m a Gallo fan, have been since he was in HS, but I think forecasting him into Aaron Judge territory would be purely wishful thinking.

Robert: Keith, what are your thoughts on blaming school shootings (or any shooting) on “mental illness”? I’m in favor of stronger gun restrictions for those with actual mental illness, but this debate is going to intentionally or unintentionally stigmatize people experiencing mental illness.
Keith Law: That’s totally what it is – it takes advantage of the general public ignorance about “mental illness,” particularly that it is all one thing rather than a broad spectrum of disorders from depression and anxiety to sociopathy, psychopathy, and antisocial or narcissistic personality disorders. And it diverts attention from the actual issue at hand, which is that no civilian has any valid reason to own a semiautomatic weapon.

Dr. Bob: Good afternoon, Keith. You saw Derrick Goold’s article about Mike Maddux wanting Cards’ pitchers to elevate the ball some as a way to counteract the hitting trend to lift the ball. What do you think?
Keith Law: If that’s a one size fits all approach, then I don’t like it. Maddux has a mixed track record with young arms from his last few stops, and that approach is one reason for it. You can elevate the ball if you throw particularly hard, or have a high spin rate on your four seamer, or have deception, or have plus command. Many big league starters don’t have those things, or maybe have just one, and having them try to attack the top of the zone is just going to mean more fly balls.

Tony P (@disguyyy): (take 2) Hi Keith, Do you find yourself going down rabbit-holes during times like the last week? It’s been so hard to stay focused when I see misinformation or something I feel responsible for correcting then next thing I know, I’ve done 20 minutes of research just to debunk some idiot on the internet. How do you reel yourself back or avoid it in the first place?
Keith Law: That’s generally time to walk away from the computer. I’m particularly prone to clicking on one thing and waking up 20 minutes later having read four articles and learned a lot but accomplished none of what I sat down to do.

dave: I’ve never seen this simple rule change discussed to improve pace-of-play and shorten games. What if a pitcher had to face a minimum of two batters instead of just one?
Keith Law: That’s been discussed at least since the 1990s. Doesn’t seem to be any desire to do that within MLB.

Manny: Where should devers bat in the Sox line up. Top third, middle third? Does lefty, righty alternation really matter much?
Keith Law: L/R alternation matters for late in games; you don’t want a string of LHB with platoon issues whom opposing lefties can carve up. I don’t know their lineup offhand to say where Devers should bat – he’s probably not among their top 3 hitters so I guess below that. As long as he plays every day, I’m happy.

Rob (Gilbert): I think I remember you saying that you started playing Pandemic: Legacy. How many characters did you use (or did it vary), and did you ever finish?
Keith Law: We didn’t finish S1, just because we keep getting other games (for me to review) and we got caught up in Charterstone lately.

Sandy Kazmir: Spin me tales about why I shouldn’t hate everything upon learning my favorite baseball player will miss most of the next two years.
Keith Law: Honeywell’s not officially out for 18 months … but yeah, doesn’t sound good, and I’d be pretty damn disappointed too with him right on the cusp of a debut. If he’s done, then I guess Andriese becomes the 4th starter and Banda starts in the pen?
Keith Law: Sorry I don’t have something uplifting to tell you, though.

Adam Doctolero: What would you say your core organizational philosophy would be in regards to drafting/player development?
Keith Law: Doubt that’s anything I could distill into a short chat answer. That’s probably a three-page essay.

Chris: I’m still intrigued by Gavin Cecchini. Feel like he has utility player potential at 3B, 2B and OF (hasn’t played out there yet but I don’t see why not give it a try as he’s stuck in AAA). What are your thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Can’t throw enough for 3b.

Jason: Keith…is there an obvious move for StL to make? Or are they better off at this point to see what they have in rotation and bullpen and adjust from there?
Keith Law: yes, I think going after a bigger starter would help. They have OF and P surplus in the upper minors. I like Flaherty a ton, but they can upgrade on that spot for this year and let him start in AAA for a few months.

Jon: What are you looking for for Max Kepler this year? Assume he will get some good run in Minnesota?
Keith Law: Not quite sure what you’re asking in the second question. I expect continued improvement at the plate – he’s always developed on a delayed sort of schedule, unsurprising for someone who grew up in a non-baseball country.

Zach: What to do with AJ Reed? Has to be a trade right? Does his bat still project as a quality hitter?
Keith Law: I’d take a flier on him. Actually thought he’d be a good fit for Tampa Bay, although Cron probably blocks him now.

Nick: Did the Yankees give up too much for Drury? Two top 20 prospects from a great system seems like a lot to me.
Keith Law: It’s not a lot. Even that framing, which I think underestimates the gap between their top 10-12 and the rest of their top 20, doesn’t sound bad … how many teams really have 20 good prospects? Maybe two right now, if that?

John: I read Brian Kenny’s Ahead of the Curve. Does Smart Baseball offer any different takes or more of the same?
Keith Law: It’s not the same, since I wrote it.

Jack: Would the Phillies be smart to sign Arrieta?
Keith Law: No.

Chris: Should more positionless-AAAA bat-only types be tried at catcher? I saw Mets were giving Philip Evans reps there and think it’s a low-risk, high reward move.
Keith Law: I vaguely remember him trying to catch years ago, maybe as an amateur? Kind of a Tony Wolters thing? You have to have the right body, arm strength, and some athleticism to do it. And it’s a ton of work.

Sean: Correct move for Detroit to go move Castellanos away from the hot corner to make room for Candelario? Not like he’s a stud defensively either. But both seem to be able to hit.
Keith Law: Yeah, I think it’s time to turn the page permanently on Castellanos at third.

Jay: If you know, what was the drug Whitley was suspended for, and why all the secrecy?
Keith Law: I think I know, but I don’t know with enough sourcing to report. I think the secrecy is inadvertent – not a steroid, not weed or coke or something worse, so it doesn’t fit neatly in MLB’s buckets. (It was caffeine.)

Larry: I was a little disappointed in your Brady Singer answer last week. Did you get an update from when you last saw him in April of last year? Is the AA and stuff improved?
Keith Law: Disappointed in Singer? He’s had the same arm action since high school and it hasn’t changed. I’ll see him tomorrow night at Miami and Kowar Saturday.

Jason: Regarding StL outfielder prospects…which would you prefer to keep and which would you prefer to trade?
Keith Law: Not counting the big leaguers? I don’t think they have anyone I would HAVE to keep. If you’re getting someone like Archer, you make any of them available. I happen to love Mercado and think there’s more growth there, but I would trade him for sure in the right deal. I have said I think O’Neill is the most blocked, and thus the first name I’d make available.

Luke: Are the Rays really that much worse off than they were a week ago?
Keith Law: I assume this excludes Honeywell? I agree. Maybe two wins worse. Where they sit, that’s essentially zero.

JC: It won’t push them into a contender per se, but considering the Braves are projected to be sub replacement level in the corner OF not including Acuna, should they at least check in on Dickerson? It would also make Acuna not on the OD roster slightly less indefensible
Keith Law: If you can get Dickerson essentially for free, then yes, definitely.

Machado : How do you feel about macahdo moving to SS, doesn’t he project better as a 3B? And do you think he will live back to 3B
Keith Law: Projects very well at SS. I never thought he’d have to move – he moved for Hardy.

Chris: Sandy hinted that John Ricco could be his successor. Mets fans don’t know much about him. Thoughts? (Could also easily see Omar Minaya coup with how dysfunctional they’re run)
Keith Law: I know John a little, but have no experience working with him, and my understanding is he’s worked mostly with the major-league side of operations there so I don’t know a lot of people who’ve worked closely with him either.

Eric: Hi Keith,
What do you think the ceiling for Hudson Potts is this year? He really found his power in the 2nd half of 2017. Can he keep it going and crack the top 100?
Keith Law: Plate discipline/pitch recognition is (are?) his main flaw. Still just 19 this year, though.

Evan: Hey Klaw, got an Anova for Christmas and absolutely loving it. I know you’ve been off of the red meat, but what’s your favorite use for it? Pork chops, chicken thighs? Any special recipes? Thanks for the chats!
Keith Law: Chicken thighs, five hours at 165, then sear off to crisp the skin. I call it the Chris Crawford special: little bit of chicken thighs and cold beer on a Friday night.

Jonathan: Water: Sparkling or Still?
Keith Law: Sparkling, please. (burp)

Nick: With the high washout rate of HS arms, would it be crazy for the Reds to consider moving Greene for a piece closer to the majors? I wouldn’t give him away but if he can be the centerpiece for someone like Chris Archer, for example, should the Reds pull the trigger?
Keith Law: Arms like his don’t come along very often. Some risks are worth taking because the payoff is so high even if the probability is low.

Jim: …not to mention this Administration removed restrictions on people with mental illnesses buying guns…
Keith Law: Please do mention that.

Sally Fan: How many “aces” are there in the majors? Is this a relatively stable number year to year? How much does this play in to evaluating “ace upside” in minor leaguers?
Keith Law: I have personally defined ‘ace’ during my career as someone who’d be the #1 starter in half or more of the rotations in the majors in a typical year. By definition, that would center around 15, some years a few more, some a few … fewer. I do not agree that there are 30 aces. There are 30 nominal #1s, but as the scout Abe Lincoln once said, if you call a dog’s tail a leg, it’s still a tail.

Jay: Thoughts on who came off the best/worst in last night’s town hall?
Keith Law: Didn’t watch.

John: Someone suffering from the broad catch-all “mental illness” is 5x-10x more likely to be the victim of a violent crime than to be the perpetrator depending on the study you look it. Its a red herring of an argument that people find way too compelling.
Keith Law: Analogous: Crazy evangelicals & bigots pushing trans bathroom bills, when trans people are almost 4 times more likely to be victims of violence … oh, wait, sorry, that’s 4 times more likely to be victims of POLICE violence. 47% of trans people will experience a sexual assault in their lifetimes. If there’s a trans person in a public bathroom and I walk in, I’m more worried for him, not for me or any children in the facility.

Jack: All your recent amateur scouting has got me thinking – do you believe there’s anybody on the planet that throws 100 MPH+ that you’ve never heard of before? Thanks!
Keith Law: With a baseball pitcher’s delivery? Doubt it. There are probably kids who can throw a rock or other object fairly hard, but 100 mph+ is a combination of a genetic gift and years of throwing.

Jon: Keith, why does it feel like the Florida teams aren’t getting decent returns in their tanking/rebuilding efforts? Is the playing field more level? Are the front offices of these two teams behind? Desperation?
Keith Law: Revenue bases are very low for both clubs.

Arin, d-town ca: Can Bryce Brentz be an everyday player for the Pirates?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: Too much swing and miss.

Luigi: All the commentary I’ve read about Tristen Lutz praises his power. What is the reputation on his hit tool? How good he can be?
Keith Law: His skill is extremely hard contact, which leads to power. It’s not sell-out, dead pull power. He can hit.

Jack: What should the Giants do if they’re in the cellar again come July 31?
Keith Law: Trade ’em all. And yes, I mean all, as painful as that would be.

Ben: So is everyone gonna just ignore the fact that Billy Graham was an antisemitic, anti-lgbt mysoginist?
Keith Law: Who abandoned his kids for long stretches and tried to convince his daughter not to divorce her philandering husband.

PJ: Between Max Fried and Luiz Gohara, who should I be more excited to see in our lovely taxpayer-funded park this year?
Keith Law: Eh, both are pretty fun in different ways.

WhiteSoxAndy: I heard about a rule being discussed on the Rich Eisen show in which teams can put any three players up to bat to start the 9th inning. This sounds like a really dumb idea. Is it?
Keith Law: It is indeed a really dumb idea. I don’t know where it originated.

Ron: Does the addition of Gomez change your evaluation of the Souza trade from the Rays’ perspective at all? The players are obviously not equivalent values by themselves, but does a year of Gomez at $4 mil+prospects turn this into something approaching a win for the Rays?
Keith Law: It’s good value for the Rays, yes. Doesn’t alter the question of whether they got sufficient return for Souza.

Amory Blaine: How good can Luis Castillo be?
Keith Law: Without a good breaking ball, 2017 is his ceiling.

John: Where would juan Pablo Martinez rank in your top 100 prospects?
Keith Law: Answered last week – he would not.

Seath: Im a veteran and I am currently looking at masters programs that is both practical but could open the door in case i want to pursue a behind the scenes career in MLB. I have an MPA now and i’m looking into an MS in Business Analytics (I had to take a Quantitative Analysis class in my MPA program and loved it). Would you recommend something in that area or something completely different?
Keith Law: Thank you for your service. I think you’re on the right track. Ability to work with big data and coding skills will play in multiple industries.

Chris: In your opinion, who is more likely to leave and sign with another team next winter: Harper or Machado?
Keith Law: Both.

Larry: If Alex Jackson isn’t workable behind the plate, is the bat enough to be an everyday corner OF?
Keith Law: Maybe. Odds under 50% but well above 0.

Logic: Keith, Regarding Vincent. It was many years ago now, in the 90’s when I went to Baltimore’s art museum to see an exhibit featuring Starry Night. I had no interest in art and knew nothing about it. I went because my girlfriend (love of my life) wanted to go, besides we could go to Fell’s Point later for some fun. When I saw the painting I was totally captivated. I couldn’t take my eyes off of it. It’s almost 3 dimensional. A wonderful experience that stills lives in me. If you get the opportunity, check it out.
Keith Law: I will, next time I’m down that way. I don’t think I would have been able to tell you anything about Van Gogh’s style before seeing Loving Vincent, but after the film I realized he does things I can appreciate even as an art philistine.

George: I just thought of this the other day, as I recently had a baby girl and was thinking about vaccinations; if they cause Autism–which they don’t–wouldn’t the numbers of boys to girls with Autism be fairly equal, not extremely one-sided in boys who are affected?
Keith Law: Right. Also, unvaccinated kids get autism at the same rate as vaccinated kids.

Matt: These kids from Parkland are kicking ass and taking names
Keith Law: Indeed. I hope they can keep it going until November.

Daniel: How close is Luke Weaver to a real third pitch, and how good can he be if it’s just a show-me curve that he can throw for strikes?
Keith Law: Not close enough for me to call him a sure starter.

Roger: Concern that Ethan Hankins is already dealing with shoulder issues?
Keith Law: Supposedly just muscular. Of course it’s a concern but let’s see him get back on the mound before we get too alarmed.

Dutch: What are your thoughts on Alexander Canario? The KATOH projection system loves him but I can’t find a single long form article about him. Is this simply an example of KATOH’s weakness for scouting the statline?
Keith Law: DSL player. I don’t know enough about Katoh’s algorithm to comment, but I would question *any* system that tried to project major-league value based on DSL stats.

Brandon: Kolby Allard’s prospect ranking has been all over the place depending on the list you look at. Why are so many people torn on him? Is it his size?
Keith Law: Size and reduced velocity over the course of 2017. When I asked around this winter about him, my top 100, what other teams thought of Atlanta’s system, I got fairly consistent responses that he’d slipped and also been passed by several other arms in their system (like Wilson).

Bort: With Honeywell almost certainly out for 2018, doesn’t it make even more sense for the Rays to trade Chris Archer?
Keith Law: “Almost certainly?” Look, I get that he could have just blown out his elbow, but that statement is not accurate right now.

John: I’m curious about the Megan McArdle thing that you circulated earlier this week. Tried following the links, and couldn’t find anything she had necessarily done wrong. Do you have any insight? The accusation is that she made up a number, but the “proof” was her saying that it was in the middle of a hypothetical. If true, then that’s not wrong.
Keith Law: That was her ex post rationalization for it. She’s also written repeatedly about topics like health care reform without disclosing her numerous conflicts of interest. It was a terrible hire in the WaPo/NYT editorial pages’ race to the bottom.

Seth : what do you think drury’s potential is? everyone keeps saying he’s filled with “untapped potential” … what say you?
Keith Law: Low-OBP but high average with some pop, plays 2nd (poorly) and 3rd (more than adequately), everyday guy for some teams, eventually a good bench player for the Yanks.

M.D. Pepper : Hi Keith, reports from SB Nation noted that Jahmai Jones may be getting some time at second base, which Jahmai somewhat denied. Would it be of value for the Angels if he made that transition and could he be capable of doing so since he played the position in high school?
Keith Law: Not sure when he did that in HS … sure, it’ll raise his value, because I think in that system his odds of staying in CF are low given the presence of other CF like Marsh.

Adam: Even if the bat never comes around, is there still a chance for Javier Guerra to make the majors as a defensive replacement? Or is the bat currently that bad?
Keith Law: Bat hasn’t looked the same since the trade and medical issue. Not sure if it’s medication or something else, but he’s looked much slower at the plate.

CapePorpoise: I’m trying to understand your NYT subscription cancellation. Given the number of links you’ve given, I’m assuming you agree it’s still one of the best news organizations. Are one columnist’s views sufficient cause to require your action?
Keith Law: Not “one columnist,” and I think I made that fairly clear. This is Stephens and Douthat and Norton (since axed, but really, nice process, guys) and to a lesser extent brooks. It’s articles normalizing neo-Nazis and giving excessive voice to Trump voters. And they’ve run their share of pseudoscience claptrap too, like Danny Hakim’s well-reviled piece attacking GMOs contrary to all available science.

Mikey B: Rays just traded Dickerson to the Pirates. FYI.
Keith Law: Well there you have it.

Dr. Bob: Man, did you get hammered by Padres’ fans for stating the obvious about SD signing Hosmer. They should be able to see the same things that we all see. What do you think their motive was?
Keith Law: Plenty of rational Padres fans came out to support me, but the trolls are the loudest, unfortunately. It’s amusing to me how thoroughly a fan base can convince itself of a player’s intangibles even when they have had no direct contact with the player in his career.

Raj: Why do you think Matt Chapman was never mentioned as a top their prospect during his time in the minors? I understand the questions how his hit tool, but wouldn’t his above average glove and power neutralize the concerns about his hit tool?
Keith Law: No, not given the swing and miss rates.

Pat D: I’ve never come closer to telling people I like and respect to fuck off because of one issue than I have in the last week. I’m just so sick of the “evil people are going to do evil things” excuse while the person who says that engages in nothing but fallacies and false equivalences. Time to just cut off contact, right? Also, isn’t it sad to know you’ll never be a great patriot like Wayne LaPierre?
Keith Law: If we can identify evil people so easily, how about we just screen every would-be gun buyer for evil. If you’re evil, you don’t get a gun. Problem solved!

Anthony : Are you finally ready to say that Soroka has a higher ceiling or floor than Allard? You’ve said no to both back in September but now your rankings show different.
Keith Law: How dare I change my opinions on players. In the future, I’ll be sure to keep all rankings perfectly static.

Will in Vero: How did Dallas Baptist get so good?
Keith Law: Recruited very well locally, especially since they announced they were moving up to D1 maybe a decade ago (or longer? jeez).

Patrick: With Solak dealt it came out that the Yankees were pushing him with Frazier in their offer to Pitt for Cole. Do you think those 2 were a better offer than the 4 Pitt ultimately took from Houston?
Keith Law: I do not. I’m not a big Solak fan.

Brian: As a Phillies fan, the plight of Mark Appel and Mickey Moniak has me wondering: when top 5 guys end up being busts is there a commonality in terms of what scouts and people like yourself got wrong pre-draft? Is it about certain tools or focusing too much on one element of the evaluation, etc?
Keith Law: Don’t think you could find two players as different as those two. Moniak seemed at the time and seems still today like a bit of a money-saver option in a draft without a clear 1. Appel was the clear 1 that year, or at worst a great 2, and given what the Astros had available at the time he was a good pick.

Exit Velocity Proves I’m Good : Is there 25+ HR power in Josh Bell?
Keith Law: I believe there is, even without the juiced ball.

Josh in DC: I haven’t read your book, but I will eventually. Do you have any positive thoughts about so-called intangibles (say, leadership ability) in the book?
Keith Law: No, my book focuses on things that actually exist and that we can at least try to measure.

David: Honest question – would you turn down the opportunity to visit President Trump? I’ve thought about this a lot. Does meeting him CHANGE anything (for better or worse)? So would it be all that bad to meet him, just for the experience? Curious to hear your thoughts.
Keith Law: I probably would turn it down. I can’t see any good coming of it.

Chris: I know youre on hiatus from TC, but just a heads up the Volt Bros are on tonight…
Keith Law: Olympics tonight. I don’t control the remote even if I wanted to.

Matt: Keith, it seems like every year there’s a college pitcher I’ve never heard of who starts getting a ton of buzz as a top 5 pick. This year’s model appears to be Shane McLanahan. Aside from being small, what else could keep McLanahan from success in the pros?
Keith Law: I think that’s the biggest knock on him. He’s listed at 165, I think. That’s skinny.

John: I’m not a second amendment guy — in fact, I’ve never touched a gun in my life — but I disagree with you on guns vs. “mental illness.” The Virginia Tech rampage was done entirely with handguns. If there’s someone who has the psychological problems that would lead to one of these shootings, banning assault rifles won’t make a big difference. It would do more good to address the people with psyochotic/antisocial issues. Your point about using too broad a brush on “metal illness” is valid, but it doesn’t follow to ban a type of weapon.
Keith Law: One rampage was done entirely with handguns (can’t a handgun be semi-automatic, BTW? Isn’t that what a Luger of detective novel fame is?) … what about all of the massacres done with AR-15s? No one is claiming we will ever prevent all mass murders. If we can reduce their frequency at minimal cost, then we should do so. As much as I would love to see us improve mental health treatment in this country, that is very, very expensive. Banning weapons designed to kill as many targets as possible in a short period of time is cheap.

Bobbo: thanks for the chats. here’s a two parter: do you tend to veer away from hidden role and deduction games? and if not, are you partial to Deception (a fave of the game group im in)?
Keith Law: I played Deception with some new friends at Gen Con this year and it was fun, but definitely better thanks to the drinks in everyone’s hands. I don’t mind those games at all but they’re more social/party games than strategy games, which is my preference.

Josh in DC: So help me, my kids (8 and 10) like “Life.” Do you have any recommendations of games that are like Life, but not terrible?
Keith Law: Depends on what they like about it. I don’t know any games that try to simulate what (white, suburban, straight, cis) life is like. Do they like that they’re building stuff – like Agricola, where you’re a farmer and have to feed your family and build our your house and raise animals? (It’s also kind of easy in that game to forget to grow enough food to feed your family.)

Jonathan: Would MacKenzie Gore and Logan Allen be enough to pry Kevin Kiermaier away from the Rays?
Keith Law: Yeah, if the Padres are out of their fucking minds.

John: Even if he’s great the next two years, do you think it’s likely that Darvish actually uses his opt out? There is a lot of competition scheduled to be on the free agent market that year (Sale, Bumgarner, & Cole at the top; plus mid-rotation depth like Gray, Porcello, and Pineda, among others).
Keith Law: He could always threaten to use it and try to renegotiate his deal, too.

Dr. Bob: Colby Rasmus just signed with the Orioles. I don’t know if his career would have turned out the same, but I always wonder if TLR’s manhandling him contributed to his downfall. Might be a cautionary tale that you shouldn’t necessarily treat every player the same.
Keith Law: I think the combination of TLR and Rasmus’s father led to his failure to develop.

Todd: Yankees Luis Medina a potential breakout prospect?
Keith Law: He was my potential breakout prospect for the Yankees.

Mike: This isn’t relevant to a sport that you follow, but some Oregon State fans were accused of yelling racial epithets at players from a rival school after a game. What level of punishment to the school do you think can decrease this deplorable behavior? No future home games, tournament bans, something else?
Keith Law: If the school takes action – banning those fans from games, even suspending them – I’d be fine stopping there. You go after the school if it has shown an unwillingness or inability to stop the problem.
Keith Law: Also, what’s worse, Oregon State fans yelling racial epithets, or Oregon State fans giving convicted child molester Luke Heimlich a standing ovation?

RSO: Thoughts on the economy booming right now under Trump? You ever just give him credit or just rip him for every little thing he does like most liberals do?
Keith Law: You dropped your binky. The economy isn’t “booming,” by the way. The stock market is, but that’s not the economy. Q4 GDP growth came in below expectations.

Dennis: Does Nick Tropeano have mid rotation potential or is he a likely back-end guy?
Keith Law: Two pitch guy, most likely a reliever/long man.

Chris: If and when Andujar and Gleyber entrench themselves, should the Yanks trade Wade, Thairo, and Drury if they’d be average regulars for so called second division teams? Understanding depth is important, at some pt it is not a good allocation of resources.
Keith Law: Trade one or two of the three, but not all. Someone has to back those guys (and Didi) up.

Buck: What do you think of Nick Senzel getting a look at shortstop this spring? Any chance he can stick there, at least for a few years?
Keith Law: No. Don’t get it at all – he was a poor defender at SS as an amateur, and worked hard to get to average at 3b.

JR : Who are a person or two on the social/political right that you read and respect their rationality and integrity even if you disagree them?
Keith Law: David French comes to mind. I’m sure he’s written something that would make me tear my hair out, but he’s been one of the most consistently thoughtful, rational writers on the right I’ve seen over the last year.

Pj: Yandy Diaz is an enormous human being with a good swing. Will the power come at some point?
Keith Law: I think there can be average power.

wade: I believe you mentioned previously that you remodeled your kitchen and decided not to do a double oven. What do you do when you need to cook two things at different temps but want them to be done at the same time?
Keith Law: Almost never comes up.

Dave: Curious what your problem with Douthat is – he’s devout and I’m not, but I assume that’s not the issue. At least he’s smarter than their other conservatives.
Keith Law: Literally wrote a piece arguing for rolling back part of the First Amendment.

RSO: I really enjoyed hearing you on the RAB podcast. Do you plan on working with RAB on any future endeavors?
Keith Law: I’ve always enjoyed their work and have said yes whenever I could when they’ve asked me to do their podcast.

jake: so im confused, where was florial actually born?
Keith Law: An excellent question. For folks who missed it, Florial told Randy Miller he was born in the DR. MLB thinks he was born in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and he wore the Haitian flag in the Futures Game last year. Seems like a visa problem waiting to happen, so I’m hoping this is all just a misunderstanding.

Josh in DC: In slamming intangibles as something that doesn’t exist, you also said leadership abilities don’t exist. Look, I’m dubious about most intangibles. But just because something can’t be measured doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
Keith Law: If it can’t be measured, then you can’t rationally price it, and that is functionally equivalent to nonexistent.

Jay: Can we look forward to your thoughts after Ohtani’s mound debut Saturday?
Keith Law: Nope. Not until I see him live. I’ll be on the road Saturday anyway.

Ron: Keith-I have 3 pigs and a bird dog that can fly before Tebow will ever make a MLB player. He’s just taking up vital space for a real minor-leaguer.
Keith Law: I have declined to write further about Tebow for ESPN. It is a traveling circus at this point.

Todd Boss: In response to the person commenting on the Va Tech massacre, Mother Jones’ US Mass Shootings database reports that Seung-Hui Cho used “Two semiautomatic handguns” … fyi.
Keith Law: I thought so. I don’t know guns at all, though. Never even held an unloaded weapon.

David: Khalil Lee and K’s; Is he missing pitches in the zone or chasing bad pitches? From a scouting perspective, is one considered better or easier to fix?
Keith Law: You can’t really strike out that often without a little of both.

Tim: With ballparks in the PCL being such launching pads, would you encourage organizations to adopt the humidors at those stadiums? If so, why haven’t they? Is it the cost?
Keith Law: Might be an approval process here that stymies them. Of course, moving the teams works too.

Matt: Evan McMullin is a decent person too.
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely. He’s a throwback in many ways to a conservative movement/philosophy that has been overtaken by bigotry and denialism.

Trav: Also, re: the economy, I wonder how many giving Donald credit for the current economy were heaping praise on Obama for averting a completely failed economy when he came into office.
Keith Law: None, I’m sure.

B: Could you see Lucas Erceg getting a call up in September? He reminds me of a young Longoria, only left handed. Is that way off base?
Keith Law: Seems aggressive on both fronts. I do like Erceg, but his approach is nowhere near as mature as Longo’s was at that age.

Adam: Charles C.W. Cooke is a solid conservative writer, although you would differ greatly with him on 2A
Keith Law: I’m fine disagreeing with writers on substantive issues. I’m not fine with, say, calling for rolling back 1A when your career depends on 1A for its mere existence. Or with a piece defending a child molester because he hasn’t had enough victims accuse him.

steve: Swihart: Makes Sox roster or sent packing?
Keith Law: Makes it. Highly doubt they give up on him without one more good shot to get him healthy and productive.

Scott : I’m flying from Helsinki to Aruba on Saturday with three kids under the age of 10, can you recommend a place to get a stiff drink?
Keith Law: In Aruba, fortunately, the alcohol flows quite freely everywhere you go. Godspeed.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions and for reading. I’ll be at U Miami Friday and Saturday nights to see Florida’s two big starters, so if any of you head to the stadium (or have food suggestions!) let me know. Fuck yeah, baseball!

My preseason ranking of the top 30 prospects for this year’s draft is now up for Insiders.

Keith Law: Klawchat. You can forget all future plans.

addoeh: “Thoughts & Prayers” isn’t working. Maybe we should try something else.
Keith Law: They’re a renewable resource, though.

Dr. Bob: As Spring Training opens, I expect you to be in the best shape of your life.
Keith Law: I have a cold and I’ve been to the gym twice since New Year’s. So I might be in the worst shape of my life.

Matt: You noted in the draft prospects article its a deep draft, but not top heavy. In your opinion, did the Phillies make a mistake in signing Carlos Santana which caused them to lose their high 2nd rd pick?
Keith Law: I don’t think it was a mistake, but I think it was a cost to consider in the signing.

Davey Boy: Is this a do or die season for Blake Swihart? Can he be a utility type guy at the major league level?
Keith Law: I don’t generally care for the idea of a do-or-die or make-or-break season, and I don’t think it applies to Swihart. If he’s healthy, he will have value. He was a decent infielder in HS – I saw him play third – and I think he’d be able to handle second or third in the majors. Maybe he’s Austin Barnes.

Dan: If you could make a player have one 80 and the rest of his tools 40-50. Which one would you make 80?
Keith Law: If you’re an 80 hitter, nothing else really matters.

Jon: Thoughts on Mike Ford? Does he have a chance to stick with the Mariners all year?
Keith Law: Non prospect. Maybe the final guy on a bench.

Joe: Keith, I feel like Tyler Wade is getting completly overlooked with the Yankees. Would you be confident having him start the season as the starter at second?
Keith Law: He’s getting overlooked? I feel like I’m asked about him constantly – and yes, I think he’s someone’s regular, if perhaps not the Yankees’ because of Andujar and Gleyber.

Doddy King: Texas and Anaheim are both indicating that they are looking at going with six man rotations, with Texas apparently also considering two reliever-to-starter candidates (Bush and Minor) as part of their move. Do you think this is a one- (or two-) off thing, or will more teams explore a six man rotation going forward?
Keith Law: I’m not sure that we know at all if that’ll help reduce pitching injuries, although I’m open to any kind of experiments like this. I do think both of those guys are enormous injury risks as starters, though, and would have kept them in the bullpen.

Dana: Goose Gossage is a jerk, but he seems to have a good point that he was more valuable than most of today’s relievers b/c he pitched multiple innings, right?
Keith Law: Yeah, but he’s right for the wrong reasons. He was more valuable because he threw more innings. He thinks he was more valuable because he did it.

Andy: Why does the government never get anywhere on gun control? If the democrats win Presidency and take control of Congress will something get done?
Keith Law: Money. Why can’t Flint, Michigan get clean drinking water? Money. Why are we still using so much coal despite the pollution it causes? Money. Why doesn’t any government agency do anything to crack down on overprescriptions of opioids? Money. Something like 2/3 of Americans support an assault weapons ban, but the power of money in our system trumps that of the popular vote.

Carlos: Julio Pablo Martinez seems likely to sign with a team at some point. I’ve read he has a good blend of power and speed. Is he a guy to watch? Would he have ranked on your top 100 list if eligible? What are your overall thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Not a top 100 guy. Maxed out, smaller & less athletic than Robert (they played together).

Patrick: My only quibble about these chats, Keith…not knowing the lyric that will lead them off when the queue is posted!
My question–what’s the furthest/most remote you have traveled to see a prospect (HS, Minors, not counting Sidd Finch?)
Keith Law: Jarrod Parker: flew to Chicago, drove 3 hours to Kendallville IN. Braxton Garrett was close: flew to Nashville, drove 2+ to Auburn, AL, then drove 3+ to Atlanta that night (very bad idea).

Tom Hendry: Why do you think so much negative coverage is directed at the free agent player’s camp?
Keith Law: Fans bizarrely support billionaire owners over players, arguing that the latter are “greedy.” (Not too dissimilar from people outside the top tax bracket who argue that the top 1% of income earners should get to keep more of their income, even though it doesn’t help them and may be worse for long-term economic growth.) And the media don’t help by carrying more water for front offices (where they have more sources) than for players/agents.

AJ: Hi Keith. On the whole, I was pretty happy with what Hahn did as far as rebuilding the farm system. The one knock that I did see was that he almost completely gambled on upside and didn’t hedge his bet with any “higher floor” guys. What is your opinion? Also, how soon can you see the ChiSox being a playoff contender? Is 2019 too soon? Thanks.
Keith Law: I think 2020 is more realistic, but if a few of the pitchers come on this year, that would accelerate it. We’ll get a full season of Giolito in the rotation, probably full seasons of Lopez and Fulmer somewhere on the roster (I still think both are more likely relievers), the debut of Kopech, maybe a late late callup for Hansen … that will all go a long way to telling us how far away they are.

Tom Hendry: The Orioles are piling up high with fringe MLB ready catchers. Do they have a growing concern that Chance Sisco cannot catch?
Keith Law: Or maybe Buck has decided he doesn’t like Sisco for some unknown reason? I can think of 20 other teams that would love to take him off Baltimore’s hands.

Dan. : Caden Lemons and Blayne Enlow both look like high upside projection arms from the recent draft. Are they similarly projectable or different in a significant way? If so, how?
Keith Law: Not similar at all; Enlow’s more athletic, better put together, more likely to stay healthy. Lemons had some medical questions post-draft and has more present velocity with less of a breaking ball.

Bored Lawyer, Esq. : Any college series you have your eye on this weekend? Vandy-Duke should be a fun one
Keith Law: Vandy doesn’t have anyone major for this year’s draft, so not that one; I’m hoping to go to the Coastal Carolina tournament but I’ve been sick all week.

DR: As a guy who does a lot to raise the public consciousness on data driven baseball analysis, are there any traits among the recently “woken” smart fans that grate you a bit? For me, rote invocation of WAR as the be all/end all stat gets immediately annoying. Such trait is rather prevalent, I feel.
Keith Law: I think that’s a weak generalization … I see more people complaining that others use WAR as a be-all and end-all than I see actual people using it as such. I’m more bothered by new-stat cherrypicking – hey, we have a new toy, let’s use it to the exclusion of other things we’ve learned or ignore the lack of data telling us how meaningful such a stat is. My favorite was the Mets fan arguing with me that Michael Cuddyer was a good signing because of his exit velocity. That didn’t work out so well.

Rob: It seems obvious to me that public opinion is with ownership over the players on issues of baseball economics. Do you think this is true? How important is it? What kind of PR campaign would it take to equalize matters? I’m not just talking about the slow offseason but about how fans in a number of markets seemed condition to accept what seem to me to be artificial limits on payroll. Sorry for the long question; thanks for the chat.
Keith Law: I’d talk up how rich owners are.

A dude: Can Trammell eventually be a 20 HR guy at the big league level? His ceiling seems a bit unknown, was wondering if that’s because it’s actually that high or due to him having less exposure to the sport than others.
Keith Law: 20 HR seems fair. 30 might be stretching it, ignoring the Reds’ home park and the juiced ball.

Parent trying to learn: Ok keith i need help with this hypothetical. MN arm played at small school. 5’11 215. As a rhp 94-97 fb, 60 curve, 60 slider, 60 change, 30 control, 20 command. Really violent delivery. As a CF 60 hit 70 Power 55/60 run 50 defense in CF 80 arm. Is he a rhp or cf? Where in the draft?
Keith Law: Dude with 20 command is never going to be a major-league pitcher.

Adam: What are your thoughts on Luis Campusano and Blake Hunt, the two Catchers taken by the Padres in the early part of last year’s draft? Neither seem to be appearing on ANY list of Catcher rankings.
Keith Law: Campusano was #17 on my Padres org ranking in a very deep system, so I don’t understand the question. Hunt is much further behind.

Jim876jj: How much has the shine worn off on Meadows? Is it due to the lack of power or frustration with durability/worries he’ll struggle with durability throughout his career?
Keith Law: Doesn’t stay healthy and doesn’t put the ball in the air enough. That’s been a problem for a number of Pirates prospects – he, Hayes, and Newman all show you more power in BP than any have ever shown in games.

James: Hey Keith, any hope that Odor returns to at least being an average player again?
Keith Law: Slim but nonzero.

Andrew: Why is it that in basketball, it’s either you have it or you don’t in terms of work ethic while in baseball, you can learn it overtime (Trevor Rosenthal) for example?
Keith Law: Hm. I feel like there might be some substantial difference between the pools of players under discussion here.

Shonna: My husband and I picked up 7 Ronin after your recommendation. It’s been a staple of our gaming rotation since then, but I was wondering if you and your wife have the same problem we have. Namely that the ninjas win a huge percentage of the time, I get that it’s an assymetric game but any ways to make it a little bit more fair?
Keith Law: We haven’t run into that problem; I think we were close to 50/50 (although we haven’t played it in a while, just because I get so many new games). The ninjas have to win early; it’s a war of attrition for the samurai player.

WarBiscuit: Thoughts on the new minor league team that will be in Madison Alabama? The government is pending approval on the 46 million dollar new stadium. Although I live in Mobile where the Baybears live, the management is very terrible, the stadium is outdated and there is a bunch of infrastructure problems like leaking pipes under the field, which causes rain delays when it rains in the morning, yet sunny in the evening when they have the game, and leaking AC’s, and other stuff that’s too long to mention, so I don’t blame the team for moving out of Mobile where there is little attendance.
Keith Law: It is incredibly stupid to spend public money on sports stadiums for privately-owned teams. But this is Alabama, a state where 1 in 4 residents is functionally illiterate, and that nearly put a pedophile who has openly flouted the Constitution on several occasions into the Senate.

YanksFan: Why do you think Chance Adams ends up as a reliever? He’s succeeded at every level. And keep in mind, you said the same about Severino. Also, have you watched The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel yet???
Keith Law: Keep in mind, I said the same about Dellin Betances. And Adam Warren. And Tyler Thornburg. And by the way Severino was awful in 2016 before he had his one good year as a starter to date. Adams is nothing like Severino beyond their employer; he’s short, doesn’t have a plus pitch, and doesn’t have the command to get away with the stuff he does have turning a lineup over 3x.

Cal: Keith, what would you tell a 22 year old college kid that has no clue what he wants to do career wise? I have interests and while my major interests me, none of the careers within that major peak my interest. When you were in college, did you pick a major because it interested you, or did you pick it because a certain job interested you and to get said job, you needed this major? Parents seem to think money is way more important than doing something I like, which doesn’t help. I’d love to get your take on this, Keith. I’m honestly at a loss here and don’t know what to do/where to go.
Keith Law: I picked a job because everyone else around me was going for the same kind of job and it was very good money for a 21-year-old. I didn’t like the job and floated through a few careers before falling ass-backwards into this one. So my advice probably isn’t going to be very good.

Byron: Have you heard anything from international scouts about Alexander Canario? A lot of stats-only projection systems rate his potential as very high but I don’t think I’ve seen one actual scouting report on him
Keith Law: I would not consider anything a “stats-only projection system” said about a player who has only played in the DSL.

TP: When should we expect an announcement that you have joined the Athletic? In all seriousness, your work is the only reason I still subscribe to insider.
Keith Law: I appreciate that.

Chris: when you evaluate a prospect how much weight is given to his ability to tolerate dry humping?
Keith Law: That Callaway quote was great – especially because he was right, and that alone made him an enormous improvement over Collins.

tyler: You have said that you would vote for Mo for the HOF. Is he really going to be one of the ten best on the ballot?
Keith Law: Yes. Or I wouldn’t vote for him.

Hank: What % chance do you think Derek Hill has to hit well enough to be a big league regular?
Keith Law: 40% chance or more. Doesn’t have to hit that much to be one given his defense.

Grant: Great draft list. Are you attending either the Perfect Game or Under Armour events this year?
Keith Law: I have no idea – those are in July and August and I don’t even have spring training trips booked yet.

Larry: I get you’re not a fan of Singers arm action but doesn’t the upside justify the risk? There are a lot of very successful leaders w slot guys in MLB.
Keith Law: What upside? I saw him 90-91 last April vs Kyle Wright with a flat slider. How many MLB starters have a slot or arm action like his? Sale and … um … let me know.

Noah: What do you think Gleyber Torres’ full time position will be, long term?
Keith Law: In a vacuum, shortstop.
Keith Law: Of course, in a vacuum, he’d be dead.

Patrick: Keith, did you have a favorite baseball player growing up?
Keith Law: Willie Randolph.

Learner: Have you heard of benjamin reinhard class of 2021?
Keith Law: If such a player even exists, I don’t want to hear about him until June of 2020.

Rod: Keith – I know the constant whining on Twitter can get irritating, but what’s with yoir disingenuous “I prefer to get paid for my labor” retort? Tons of writers get paid and their work isn’t behind a paywall. Just be honest, if that’s how you prefer to operate.
Keith Law: Nothing disingenuous about it. What I earn has always been a function of the revenue I generate for my employer. That’s how the world works.

Todd: If healthy, Clarke Schmidt Yankees a legit top of the rotation starter one day?
Keith Law: No.

David : Hi Keith – Theo said after the Cubs signed Morrow they’d treat him like wade Davis (1 inning; come in if warmed up) treatment to keep him healthy. If this contributes to staying healthy (vs a lot of up and downs) why not make this the rule instead of the exception. Perhaps any loss in situational value could be made up in increased effectiveness and health over the course of the season.
Keith Law: I have a hypothesis that it’s less the up-and-downs and more the back-to-back-to-back days that lead to reliever breakdowns. Better to throw 2 innings today and not throw again for 3 days than to throw one inning three days in a row?

Joe: Why does JD Martinez believe he is worth over $20m per season and Hosmer think he deserves 8 years?
Keith Law: Deserves? Or just wants? There’s a difference; the first is a moral question, the latter a negotiating stance.

Jonathan: What would Shane McClanahan have to do this spring to be in the mix for top-5 pick?
Keith Law: He’s in my top 15; that would certainly mean he’s a possibility for the top 5, given how much baseball is left before the draft.

Santos: Fangraphs has Aaron Judge listed as 70 game power and 70 raw power. If he’s not 80, what’s the point?
Keith Law: I would rate his power at 80.

Jeff: The trait among the newly “woke” that bothers me the most is their tendency to act as if they weren’t late to the party when in fact, they arrived after the keg was already dry.
Keith Law: I like that analogy. Better than Prager’s claim on gravity, certainly.

Jonathan: Orioles send Hunter Harvey and 33rd pick in the draft to the Rays in exchange for Jake Odorizzi. Who says “no?”
Keith Law: Doubt the Orioles would do that.

Phil: Which gaming conventions are you planning to attend this year? I was bummed to miss you at PAX Unplugged.
Keith Law: That and Gen Con. Origins never works bc of the draft. Always possible I’ll do something semi-local if my schedule permits but nothing planned yet.

Beau: Read your top 30 this morning: how close is Cadyn Grenier to a 1st rd talent? Does he have any untapped upside?
Keith Law: I think if he hits – if he performs and answers questions about his hit tool – he’ll be a first rounder.

Todd: Did Luis Severino hurt you in some way? You seemingly have hate for the guy, and back in the day, even the 90s, top flight starters used to struggle early, guys like Smoltz were terrible early in their careers. Its ok to admit your wrong Keith
Keith Law: Grow up, Todd. #your

Dr. Bob: The Cardinals signed Mike Maddux to be their pitching coach to go a new direction and away from the Dave Duncan/Derek Liliquist approach. I think it’s a gutsy move, considering their success with pitchers. Do you have an opinion on Maddux?
Keith Law: He hasn’t had a great track record with young pitchers so far, which would concern me given how guys like Flaherty, Weaver, maybe Hudson will all be expected to contribute in St. Louis this year.

AJ: Speaking of Sale, I know when he first came up you weren’t sure of him sticking as a starter because of his arm slot (or maybe I am mis-remembering). What has allowed him (and other lower arm slot starters) to stick? Development of a change up?
Keith Law: Also had a grade 35 slider in college. The White Sox shifted his hand position without truly altering his slot – although it was his delivery with its high elbow in back that bothered me more than just the slot – to allow him to get on top of the ball. Within about 18 months it went from a below-average pitch to a grade 70.

Scott Boras: Can Beer be more than a DH for an American League team?
Keith Law: Probably 1b. Would help his cause if he showed he could play average defense in LF.

Nick: Surprised to see Swaggerty ranked so high. Does he have a high enough upside to be a top 5 pick? Do you see him as a Jacoby Ellsbury type (the good version)?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t have ranked him there if I didn’t think he had that upside. One of the best pure hit tools in the draft with speed and a chance to profile as a good CF.

Jay: Did you play baseball video games growing up? If so, what was your favorite?
Keith Law: Lots of them. MicroLeague, Earl Weaver, Hardball…

Kwame : Is there anything the average fan can take away from spring training or is it all propaganda?
Keith Law: It’s just health. I ignore everything else. Remember the year Andy Oliver set Florida on fire? Gabe Gross hitting 8 HR in Dunedin one spring? Taijuan Walker’s almost-perfect spring training for Seattle? They’re facing inconsistent, uneven competition in scrimmage conditions. It’s not meaningful.

Chris: Why do people get so personally offended by your views on a player like Sevy. Why not just enjoy what he has become if you’re a fan of his? Life’s too short.
Keith Law: I have no idea. This is the one thing that perplexes my wife about my job above all else – why people get so mad (and, often, act so childishly) about baseball opinions.

John: Pretty random request, but is there a book/article you can recommend for me to share with friends/family who don’t see the link between hundreds of years of explicitly racist policy (primarily toward African-Americans) and the gargantuan gap that exists in general/overall equality today?
Keith Law: I didn’t love the documentary The 13th (on Netflix), because I thought it preached to the choir too much and was heavy-handed in a lot of places … but maybe that’s right for your audience.

Joe: Keith, do you have a general stance on manipulating service time for prospects? Is it only worth it for the tippy top guys (Bryant, Gleyber, etc.)? Should it vary by organization?
Keith Law: It is good business and bad for the industry. I would manipulate free agency in most cases, but wouldn’t waste time playing with the super-two date.

Andrew: Seems to me the changes to the draft and ifa’s created this tanking, I’d like to see it go back to being spend what you want. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I would too, but God forbid players get whatever the market will pay them. Especially those pesky non-American players, who earn less than their US/Canadian-born counterparts in the draft.

Chris: I had no idea Lazarito’s natural position was SS. I always assumed he was an OF. Other than the arm, which you mentioned doesn’t play, how does he look there? Does he have the footwork and actions to play there if the arm was stronger?
Keith Law: Played SS before signing, now in LF. Was never going to stay at short.

Brent: Sale was really an odd exception, similar to trying to scout a knuckleballer. His left elbow could contain alien dna, and I wouldn’t be terribly shocked.
Keith Law: I agree, but I’m happy to wear that one as a position I staked out strongly that was 100% wrong. It’ll happen again before I’m done.

Jonathan: Odds that Jorge Soler ever lives up to his potential?
Keith Law: If you tell me he’ll be healthy for a full season, I think he’ll produce like a regular.

JR : Have you played any/all of the Ticket to Ride spinoffs? Do they provide something that different from the original game that justifies the cost?
Keith Law: Europe for sure. They get a bit more involved from there. I have tried England, Nordics, Switzerland, and have the app expansion for Pennsylvania but haven’t tried it yet. I played France at PAX Unplugged with my daughter, and we liked it, but it does make the game longer.

Chris: Man, if people got as heated and passionate about gun reform and control as they did about 16-24 y/o baseball prospects, maybe we could like, I don’t know, do something important and beneficial for our society.
Keith Law: Indeed. Hang on, I’m just going to go play a board game.

Chris J: FYI, there’s a smallish gaming con in Aberdeen the first weekend in March, if you won’t be on the road. (GAD-CON).
Keith Law: (cancels all travel plans for that weekend)

Marshall MN: Is your game closet overflowing at this point? Do you keep all the ones you have played, or if they aren’t any good just give them to someone else?
Keith Law: I have sold a number of the review copies I’ve gotten and donated all of the proceeds to charity – I think I’m over $500 donated now, all to the Food Bank of Delaware or to hurricane relief for Puerto Rico and the USVI. I only have five games on the list for right now, but update it often: https://boardgamegeek.com/geekmarket/user/keithlaw (User pays the sale price + shipping, and then I donate all of that, including the shipping, to charity. So I make no money off this.) I have swapped some other games, donated some to a local school, given some to friends. I clearly have over 100 and I just don’t need that many.

Nordberg: If you could negotiate for the player’s union for the next CBA, what 2 things would you push for the most?
Keith Law: Raise the minimum salary to $1 million. Free agency after four years.

Chas: Have you checked out the Athletic? I like the names they’re bringing in, am fine paying for quality, but worry it’s a front-loaded thing that will get spun off and crack up in a year.
Keith Law: I subscribed the other day. The first piece I read was kind of lousy but I won’t judge them on just one look.

Nick: What type of upside do you project Andres Gimenez to have? Do you think he can be a starting SS and lead off hitter on a first division club?
Keith Law: That’s the hope. Would like to see a full year of progress & performance from him.

Chuck: What the heck are the Orioles doing?
Keith Law: A good question. I wonder if ownership has tied Duquette’s hands. Britton’s injury killed them too.

Patrick: Keith, I look at the improvements someone like Corbin Burnes made in the Brewers minor league system.
Would you avoid having him pitch in Colorado/AAA? Does he have anything left to prove in AA?
Keith Law: I would avoid that. Put him in the major league bullpen as a long reliever to start the year. Their rotation is really weak for a would-be contender anyway, and there will be an opening at some point. I’d rather see him pitch in the majors and struggle while making adjustments than pitching in Colorado Springs and struggle while losing his sanity.

Mr. Athletic: Thanks for the subscription. What other sites have you subscribed to?
Keith Law: I subscribe to the Washington Post & Baseball America. I cancelled my NY Times subscription on Monday after the Bret Stephens “stop smearing Woody Allen” piece. Certainly open to suggestions on worthwhile outlets – I believe in paying for content, obviously.

Andres : Thoughts on the new MGMT or Franz Ferdinand albums?
Keith Law: Never been an MGMT fan. The new FF album is shockingly bad. Thought the latest Wombats album was solid, not as good as Glitterbug. A little disappointed in Dream Wife’s LP. Next album to give some time to is Django Django’s latest.

Bill: Yankees fan here, but to be fair to you I think your concerns about Severino were about the ability for him to make it through multiple seasons given his windup. It’s only been one (very very) good year. I assume at this point, tho, obviously he should be left in rotation
Keith Law: I agree that he should be left there. It was that plus the lack of an average breaking pitch when he was in low-A and AA. He did improve his slider dramatically – I think he’s just throwing everything harder – between 2016 and 2017.

Rick C: Should the Braves just wait a couple weeks to call up Acuna, or wait until they can be sure they’ve passed the point where he’d become a super 2 player?
Keith Law: I think he’s ready, but there isn’t a great argument for bringing him north on Opening Day. So start him in triple-A with the idea – and him aware of this – that he’ll come up by May 1st if he rakes in AAA again. I hate super two manipulation because it assumes that 1) you know where the date will be 2) the process will not change in the interim and 3) the player will never be sent down again.

Harold: I work at an elementary school in a very low income, mostly minority area. We have dozens of strategies that strive to close the achievement gap while helping these kids understand what opportunities are out there for them. No matter what we do or how many grueling hours we spend with these kids, nothing seems to change. For every kid who we can reach and push toward higher achievement, there are dozens who never buy in or who get lost in the morass of their communities. What in the world can we do to get kids out of this cycle of despair?
Keith Law: Efforts to help a smaller number of people tend to be much more successful than similar sized/cost efforts to help a larger number of people in a less significant way. “End world hunger!” makes for good marketing for your charity, but it’s an impossible goal that reduces accountability too. “End hunger in this one village in Niger” is a lot less sexy when soliciting funds, but you have a chance to achieve that goal. It’s feasible. You can come up with plans and timelines that will allow for accountability back to donors and that can be altered on the fly if something isn’t working. And then, if it works, you move on to the next village. You will never, ever fix the problem at your entire school. But if you can take ten of those kids and get them on a path out of the cycle of poverty, then that’s a success, in spite of the kids you weren’t able to help … because you were never going to be able to help all of them anyway. Ten successes is better than none.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat. If I get to Myrtle Beach, I’ll say something on social media so folks can find me there. Thank you all for all of your questions and for reading!

My latest game review for Paste covers Majesty: For the Realm, the newest board game from the designer of Splendor.

Keith Law: I’ve lived a thousand years and it never bothered me. Klawchat.

Bob W.: Curious: for your analyses, do you keep it simple with basic spreadsheet functionality only, or do you also use specialized analytical and statistical packages, as in B-school stats courses?
Keith Law: I don’t use any specialized software; if I had access to Statcast or Trackman data, then I would need to because of the sheer quantity of data involved.

Bill G: Thanks as always for your excellent work on the prospects. I am interested in your take on Jorge Lopez, who made your top 100 2 years ago and now has fallen completely off your lists. Do you believe he has a future in MLB, in what role? Thanks again!
Keith Law: Still think he’s a big league starter, maybe more of a back-end guy than I once believed. He had family issues that probably contributed to his 2016 season – a sick kid, I think? – but also I hope the Brewers learned not to send pitching prospects to Colorado Springs. No good comes of pitching there.

Rob: A couple months back in a chat you said ” I like music that’s interesting, that boasts something like strong melodies, intelligent lyrics, technical proficiency, new sounds or textures.” Have you ever done a deep dive on Regina Spektor? She’s got it all. Her middle albums are especially spectacular.
Keith Law: Deep, no, mostly because I haven’t loved enough of her singles for that. She does write great lyrics, though.

BE: Do you find the “you hate my team” comments more amusing or irritating? As a Tigers fan, its amazing how much negativity I read about you, even though you spent 5 pages of Smart Baseball supporting Tram and Lou.
Keith Law: Any fan, reader, or Twitter follower who accuses me of hating his favorite team is telling me one thing: He’s dumb. (It’s always men, BTW.) It’s truly a lack of intelligence – there’s no way I could do this job effectively if I carried actual biases against any organizations. And now, with nearly 12 years on the job, I have a sufficient body of work to point to positive and negative things I’ve said about every team. A bunch of Padre man-babies got all mad online because I said, repeatedly, that Trevor 28 WAR Hoffman was not worthy of being a Hall of Famer, and many accused me of anti-Padre bias, which 1) is silly as I’ve praised their farm system incessantly for two-plus years and 2) who the fuck would even bother to hate the Padres?
Keith Law: Ah, that felt good.

Thomas: Assuming he’s their starting third baseman, what should Tigers fans realistically expect from Jeimer Candelario this season?
Keith Law: High average, mediocre OBP, more doubles than homers, below average defense. Dude can put the bat on the ball, though.

Greg: Hi Keith,
Would be interested what players you would have on top of a list of hitters with the highest ceiling at least 2 plus years away from the majors. Yasel Antuna? R Rojas? Gabriel Arias?
Thanks for your work, only reason I just renewed insider.
Keith Law: That list would be dominated by guys on my top 100, though. You’re looking for deeper names than that, for which I’d suggest looking at the Sleeper I listed for each org. Those are usually players 2+ years away with big upsides; if I list someone closer, or with a more modest ceiling, it’s because the org is devoid of the type of player I’d prefer.

Greg: Which player would you Wander to if you had a choice?
Keith Law: Greg, even if I Wander, I’m keeping you in sight.

Rocky Mountain High: Whom do you expect to give more of a push to Arrenaudo in the future, Welker or Vilade? Not saying they take the job from him, but the guy that gives management thought about the next Rockies 3B.
Keith Law: Vilade. He might be a stud. Team USA staff loved him as a player and a person. I have generally gotten negative enough reports on Welker’s defense to think he at least has a chance to move off that position.

Scott : With the Mets making every possible roster move to banish the newly sculpted Dominic Smith to Vegas where he has already proven he can rake (and get himself out of shape), if you were running a rebuilding team would you be aggressive and make them an offer they can’t refuse?
Keith Law: Yes. I think he’s an obvious guy to target.

Dana: Would you hit Judge/Stanton/Sanchez 2-3-4 or break them up somehow with a lefty?
Keith Law: I think inserting a LHB for its own sake just ends up costing a better hitter at bats. If they were L-L-L, that would be a different story.

Kyle Tucker: Am I on the opening roster or do I come up in June? What should Astro fans expect of me ?
Keith Law: I would be surprised if you were up before September.

Philadelphia resident : Can you explain why people ruin their cities when they win a championship ?
Keith Law: Or when they lose. That’s the part I don’t get – they were going to riot and burn the city down either way. Oh, excuse me, they were going to overzealously celebrate the city down. We only call it a “riot” when it’s people of color.

Ben: Headed to Chicago in a couple weeks to see NGHFB. Any must-hit spots for food that one person can get into on short notice? Or any Chicago pizza recommendations?
Keith Law: New Girls Hit the Fuckin’ Block? Monteverde is my favorite restaurant in Chicago. Publican & their lunch offshoot are great. Any Rick Bayless place (Frontera is the flagship) will be excellent. They don’t serve pizza in Chicago – they serve bread with stuff on it.

Archie: I get the frustration of agents, however, how many of them would buy a Camry today because that is all they could afford without going into debt, instead of waiting until next year when they can buy a Ferrari with cash?
Keith Law: You have kind of hinted at the principal-agent problem, though.

Chris: Can the Mets get anything for Nimmo or Cecchini? I don’t see how their values improve with glut of players in majors at their positions for Mets.
Keith Law: Maybe a comparable fringe big leaguer – trade one of them for a useful bullpen piece or fifth starter?

Logic: I think the sports media is missing the actual dynamics of this years free agent market. If there is collusion, it’s with the agents not the owners. Agents, primarily Scott Boras have decided to let their players sit if they don’t get their customary irrational owner driven contracts. In addition, by doing this they can suggest collusion by owners due to the inactivity the agents are creating. Quite smart. Your thoughts
Keith Law: Disagree. Agents do talk – they’re allowed to – but I don’t think there’s this grand conspiracy either.

Evan: What do you think of the Todd Frazier deal?
Keith Law: Yawn. Really didn’t make much sense for the Mets, unless they just wanted to find another way to limit Dom’s playing time. And I don’t think Frazier’s one-year walk-rate spike is sustainable.

Amy: If the redsox sign JDM, when Pedroia is out, would it make sense to play JDM is LF, Benintendi in right (or center), and Mookie at 2nd? Hanley DH.
Keith Law: I legit thought you were going to suggest playing JDM at second. I may need some caffeine. (Also, Brock Holt probably ends up on the field somewhere there.)

Aaron C.: With the release of PECOTA projections this week, I have a *general* question: How should fans view projections? “For entertainment purposes only” or is there some underlying value for fans and/or analysts such as yourself?
Keith Law: Projections come with error bars, and PECOTA has long been explicit about things like best- or worst-case scenarios – here’s a stat line for this player that would be in the top 10% of outcomes for him, so it’s not likely, but an analysis of his past performance, physical details, and whatever other inputs they use says this is possible.

Gregory: Any suggestions on what to look for in a pressure cooker and in a kitchen scale (for cooking, coffee)?
Keith Law: My pressure cooker is nothing fancy – stovetop model, old-fashioned. I own two kitchen scales – one for larger measurements, and this smaller one for more precise measurements where a gram either way might matter (coffee grounds, yeast for baking): http://amzn.to/2siE8Ya

Aaron C.: With the Padres’ prospects pail overflowing, are there decent odds that you’ll be making a trip to Lake Elsinore this year (where I can get my copies of “Smart Baseball” and Warren G’s debut album signed?
Keith Law: Probably not. That’s a cross-country trip now and I don’t generally do those for pro prospects. I’ll see some of their top guys in Peoria next month.

JJ: Keith, you seem bullish on the Red Sox’ Jason Groom, ranking him as your #30 prospect. However, the Red Sox have done a pretty lousy job in recent years when it comes to developing starting pitchers (where have you gone, Trey Ball?) — does that organizational weakness affect your view/ranking of Groome at all?
Keith Law: I say at the top of the rankings every year that they are team-agnostic. Any player can be traded at any time, and his ranking would not change. BTW, Ball’s issue wasn’t really on player development; he was projectable at 18 and just never got any extra velocity.

JJ: Like you, I’m not thrilled with the idea of Trevor Hoffman in the HOF, but that’s a moot point now. Mariano will undoubtedly coast in on his first ballot next year, but after that, who’s the next reliever to get in? Lee Smith, via Veterans’ Committee? Craig Kimbrel?
Keith Law: I am not supporting this in any way, shape, or form, but K-Rod has a pretty good case with Hoffman in, and so will Joe Nathan. Even if K-Rod doesn’t pitch again this year, he’ll still be 4th all time in saves, and we heard ad nauseum how impressive it was that Hoffman was 2nd. There’s a difference of about 100 IP and 4 WAR between Hoffman and K-Rod right now. I would never, ever vote for Rodriguez, but his argument became plausible with Hoffman in.

Dan: Pirates made some retooling type trades instead of reloads, but there doesn’t seem to be enough talent in place to compete in the short or medium term. What do you think? I feel like they’re counting on more guys stepping up than is reasonable to assume.
Keith Law: I felt like they went more towards rebuild, but the two guys they traded were seen as flawed assets in the market.

Ben: When you’re on the road and eating on your own do you make a reservation or just try to walk-in places? I always wonder how you get into all the best spots!
Keith Law: I walk in and tell the maitre d’, “Do you know who I am?” Then s/he usually says, “Do you know who *I* am?” and I ask meekly if there’s a seat at the bar.

Rex: Hey Keith, thanks for doing this chat. To what degree do you consider the federal deficit to be a problem? If you could decide how to address, what are some measures you’d take?
Keith Law: The growth of the deficit is a major problem, but a truly balanced budget is both unrealistic and perhaps a poor policy decision anyway. Eventually, however, we will lose some of our seemingly infinite borrowing power.
Keith Law: And that could have all sorts of nasty consequences, including stagflation or economic contraction.

Tony: Do you think Andujar will be good enough to prevent the Yanks from going after Machado next year?
Keith Law: I love Andujar, but he’s not Machado good.

Adam: If you did a Top 150, which team do you think would have the most prospects on the list?
Keith Law: Atlanta had the most on my top 100; I would not give a different answer here without doing the entire exercise.

David: Does any data exist indicating the value of splitting up handedness of a starting rotation or is any perceived benefit strictly anecdotal?
Keith Law: Anecdotal. And likely bunk.

Noah: Will there be a strike? Feels like there is so much momentum towards one
Keith Law: They just signed a new CBA a year ago. There isn’t going to be a strike until that’s over.

DealsDealsDeals: What are Blue Jays fans to make of Danny Jansen? Being anointed the Jay’s Catcher of the Future is a lot like being Spinal Tap’s drummer.
Keith Law: Good chance he really is their catcher of the future, everyday guy with more bat than defensive skills, biggest flaw has been trouble staying healthy (at a position not conducive to keeping oneself off the DL).

Andy: Say you’re given the power to fix baseball. You can’t abolish the draft, get rid of commercials, or fire any owners into the sun. What actual changes can be made to even out the power dynamic between players and owners or improve the game? Is it as simple as just calling a better strike zone, granting free agency earlier, and getting rid of spending caps?
Keith Law: Still think you can reduce the time required for pitching changes, perhaps running ads on the screen without breaking completely for commercials. Players used to fight for earlier arbitration and/or free agency, but seem to have dropped or deprioritized that in this last round. Perhaps that was their big mistake.

John: I recently finished your book, and enjoyed it very much. Question – if statcast allows us to measure how far a player travels from crack of the bat until the out, wouldn’t that fail to capture a Ripken-style skill?
Keith Law: I’m not sure what the skill here is.

Nick: Hey Keith, I really enjoyed the new prospect coverage. I’m curios about a guy I did not see on there…what are your thoughts on Rays catcher Ronaldo Hernandez? What’s the upside? Is there breakout potential?
Keith Law: He’s outside of their top 20. One of many interesting, check-back-in-a-year types, but not someone I would tab as a breakout candidate or that the org themselves pushed as a top 15-20 guy. (I talk to people from every club to get their own thoughts and sometimes internal rankings of players.)

john w: i know you don’t compare your lists to that of competitors (and that is totally fine and understandable!). but i was wondering what your thoughts on the value of computer-driven prospect lists, like dan’s at espn. not asking you to attack him or anything, just wondering how you see a list like that and what you take from it. thanks for all the great stuff.
Keith Law: I think they’re useful because they’re different.

Jay: based on what you saw last year is Miguel Cabrera done or was he injured?
Keith Law: Probably hurt.

Jimmy: Cubs win Central fairly easily this year?
Keith Law: No, Jimmy from Chicago

Erich: I am curious as to your position on meat consumption and big business agriculture in the world. We could make as big of an impact regarding climate change and emissions by changing the way we eat compared to changing our energy and transportation, yet we only ever hear about the energy/transportation. This isn’t even considering the rain forest destruction. Why do you think this is? Would it be viewed as an attack on farmers if someone said “we need to eat less meat and dairy to help sustainability feed a planet that will soon have 10 billion people?”
Keith Law: That might be the most unrealistic proposal of all. If we solve our climate change problems, and there’s a damn good chance we don’t, it’s not going to come from convincing 2-3 billion people who are accustomed to eating meat once or twice a day to give it up while also convincing another 2-3 billion people who rarely eat meat but view it as a symbol of wealth or prosperity that they didn’t really want it after all.

Tyler: What would you say is the breakdown of how you get evalutations players? e.g. 50% in person, 30% talking with other evaluators, 20% stats/metrics? Apologies if you’ve given this breakdown before.
Keith Law: There is no answer to that. It differs for each player.

Jaipur rules: Rather than a six year $150 million offer to Darvish/Arrieta do you think someone like the Cubs should look into trading a decent prospect to the Dbacks and take on Greinke and say 75% of his remaining contract? Arizona could potentially resign JD then. Not sure how much Greinke has left in the tank.
Keith Law: If the Dbacks want to contend again this year, they have to keep Greinke. I don’t see them being competitive without him, because any trade would likely be one to shed his salary rather than bringing back talent.

Jesse: Your thoughts on the game Broom Service? I love the cowardly/brave mechanic but it has never gone over well when I bring it out on a games night.
Keith Law: I think it’s fun and very clever, but we find its length is a little tough for weeknight play.

Sparhawk: What does Joey Wentz need to do in order to establish himself as one of the best LHP prospects?
Keith Law: He made my top 100. He’s already one of the best LHP prospects.

mike sixel: I understand that long term deals stink at the end, generally, but they are often good for the team at the beginning…..from a $/WAR stance. If teams are really going to balk at long term deals, which we’ll see probably isn’t true still this spring and next year, won’t they almost “have” to pay more on an AAV basis? If I was an agent, that would be my argument.
Keith Law: The $/WAR stuff is so overblown – getting a ‘good deal’ is nice, but if your team isn’t in a position to capitalize on those marginal wins, then … you got a nice deal, congrats? If I were running a team within range of a wild-card spot or division title, I’d be less concerned about getting the most efficient deal specifically and more about getting the marginal wins I need to get into the playoffs. So I’d be fine overpaying on an AAV basis – and if anything I’d overpay in the short-term to try to get one or two fewer years at the end of the contract, when, as you said, most of them have long gone bad.

Andrew: Can you explain what is meant when a pitcher is described as athletic?
Keith Law: It means he’s a good athlete. I am a bit befuddled by your question. There’s no secondary connotation here – some pitchers are good athletes, some are not. I like good athletes in general because I think they can repeat their mechanics and have more physical potential to make adjustments.

JJ: You’re understandably down on Ray and Rutherford”s prospectness. What do you think they need to do to get back on course/do you think they can make those corrections?
Keith Law: Ray needs a stance/setup overhaul. Rutherford just didn’t impact the ball at all last year. Not sure how to fix that one.

Kay: Frazier at $8.5 million is a steal right? The average has to come up some and he seems to have no other obvious flaws as a player.
Keith Law: Why does the average “have to come up some?” He didn’t hit for average at all in 2016 and was only a little better in 2014. I think there’s a good chance he’s just a sub-.240 hitter now.

Tyler: I’ve been wanting to get into board games for quite awhile and finally convinced my friend group to try Catan. We all loved it! I know you put out your list of top board games, but what are 2-3 other “beginner” games like Catan?
Keith Law: Carcassonne, Splendor, Ticket to Ride are all good ‘gateway’ games that still hold up even though I’ve probably played 200+ other games since I got into the hobby.

Eric: Keith, loyal insider subscriber here. I know the draft is far off and nobody knows this but do you think Nolan Gorman makes it to the Padres pick at 7? I would love to see them add another impact bat to go with all of the developing arms. Thanks for all your work.
Keith Law: He’s a great prospect but nobody has any idea where players are going.

Tom: Assuming Moniak returns to Lakewood, would you advance Haseley to keep him in CF?
Keith Law: I would, but I don’t know if Moniak is returning to Lakewood. I think it would help him, and keep Haseley on track, and if Haseley rakes in Clearwater you just move them both up.

Tom: Have you used Chris Bianco’s cookbook? Do you have any thoughts on it?
Keith Law: I own it – I received an advance copy from the publisher – and it’s beautiful with some very fun writing (if you’ve ever heard Chris talk, you can ‘hear’ him while you read it), but the non-pizza recipes have not worked out well for me at all. I don’t think they were sufficiently tested.

Chris: Vimael Machin, SS in the Cubs’ system, is he anything more than just an org guy?
Keith Law: He’s not a shortstop – only played 6 games at short last year – and was 23 in low-A. Just an org guy.

Darren: Hello Keith,
Sorry to hear you and your daughter had to quit red meat, but hopefully you will be better for it. My wife and I stopped eating meat months ago and now we are both off medications, lost weight without trying, have less pain and just feel better in every way. I found quitting meat was much easier than I expected. For people that have time to cook and prepare good healthy food it is well worth it. As for money, you may spend more on healthy food but we save money and time on medication and doctor visits. Best decision I ever made, even better than getting Acuna for a buck last year in my roto league.
Keith Law: We couldn’t trace eating beef (which is what we gave up, not all red meat) to any specific medical issues, but given our metabolic disorder, it seemed worth trying to see if our shared sense that we felt lousy after eating it was real and not just psychosomatic (or guilt-induced). I miss it sometimes, but less than I expected. Mostly when I go to Shake Shack.

Drew: If the Twins were to opt for a trade as a way to get SP help would a Kepler/Gordon package for Archer be enough and/or a good use of their resources?
Keith Law: My guess is the Rays would insist on more, probably Romero too. Although Gordon fits the Rays’ m.o. of acquiring shortstops who don’t project to stay at shortstop.

Eric: Tirson Ornelas turns 18 in March and he would likely be a high school senior if he had grown up in America. If he was in this year’s draft class, how would he stack up against this year’s class and what round do you think he would go in?
Keith Law: First rounder. Billy McKinney was a first-rounder even though he was a fringy runner limited to LF, because everyone loved his swing. Ornelas can play RF and has more pop, plus one of my favorite swings in the minors.

Darren: How would you rank?
Brent Rooker Peter Alonso Lewin Diaz
Keith Law: Just like that.

Benjy: For someone who says they weren’t going to watch the Super Bowl, you sure had a bunch of tweets about it.
Keith Law: Virtually none of which were about the game, Lassie. And my wife wanted the game on; I don’t dictate what other family members get to watch just because I might prefer something else.

Justin R: Is it fair to say regardless of how free agency shakes out that the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Nationals, Cubs, and Dodgers are playoff locks for 2018?
Keith Law: Anyone discussing “playoff locks” right now is probably asking for fate to prove them very, very wrong. If you give me that prop bet on those seven teams making the playoffs I will gladly take the other side of it.

Moltar: I know you’re “out” on the show but I miss your top chef recaps.
Keith Law: Thank you – I appreciate the kind words from folks who say they miss them, but I do not miss losing the 2-3 hours a week those posts required.

Darren: Hey Keith,
Thoughts on Richard Urena? Even if Tulo wasn’t signed into the next millennium do you see him being a starting SS? Thanks.
Keith Law: He’s in my Blue Jays org report. Plenty of detail there.

Karolyn: If you were Theo, what would you offer Darvish or Jake? At some point they are going to have to accept a 3-4 year deal, right?
Keith Law: I would take either guy on a 4-year deal; I wonder if GMs are holding especially firm on pitcher contracts because there’s been such a bad history of longer deals, and everyone has known this for a while now, but there would always be one or two GMs (or owners) who would come and Leeroy Jenkins the whole market by saying “SEVEN YEEEEEEEEEARS!”

JD: A number of evaluators, including yourself, have tagged Forrest Whitley’s weight at 240. About a month ago he tweeted that he hadn’t been 240 in years and was 195. Because his size and conditioning has been part of the discussion of him as a prospect, does it make a difference? If he’s 195 does that mean he’s taking conditioning seriously? Or does it just take forever to recalibrate when a player loses weight. Joe Musgrove is still listed at the 265 he was when i saw him in short season A but clearly changed his body which made a big difference when he started rising up the Astros system.
Keith Law: I go with official heights and weights from the teams themselves. As long as Whitley is in good shape, I don’t really care if he’s 195 or 235. He’s 6’7″; “fat” for him is going to be a bigger number.

Jeff: Agents never dump clients. What did Puig do?
Keith Law: Nothing would surprise me with that guy. The rumors have been … hard to believe over the years.

Azam Farooqui: Have you read Nicholas Taleb’s tweet’s about skin in the game? He seems to be very critical of academics, do you have any thoughts?
Keith Law: Taleb the Assad-supporting, pseudoscience-touting racist? Yeah, hard pass on that one. I don’t follow him. It’s a shame, as The Black Swan was an entertaining read.

TJ: How was no one able to beat 2 for 17 for the Toddfather? Do you think the Yankees will seriously roll the dice with Andujar?
Keith Law: No one wanted to beat 2 for 17, understandably so given his low batting averages and age.

Eric: So the Braves didn’t trade their upper level SP depth again this offseason. At what point have they missed the opportunity and some of these arms will blow out or lose value?
Keith Law: I think some of them would gain value if they got closer to the majors/pitched better in the majors.

Justin: Klaw,

Non-spoiler Top Chef note. On an episode last week they highlighted a chef that kept “charged” crystals in his pockets as an energy source. It’s not bad enough that people actually believe this crap but they have to include it in an episode so some people can just accept this as fact?
Keith Law: I have heard – but not seen – that this season also featured that Youtube clown Logan Paul as a guest judge, and that one episode featured nachos as a winning dish. I feel like I might have picked a good season to skip.

John Liotta: What are the most well-known books/authors that you have yet to read? I would guess, based on comments over the years, one would be Ayn Rand (good choice). Beyond a reading challenge, what will eventually compel you to finally breakdown and read any of these?
Keith Law: Never read Rand, never will. Never read any Stephen King, either. Some famous novels I haven’t read: David Copperfield, Daniel Deronda, Clarissa, Pilgrim’s Progress, The Plague, Finnegan’s Wake. Probably more non-fiction classics I haven’t read, especially those that tend toward academic/reference work rather than narrative style.

TJ: You have been very open on your support for board games – are you a chess player at all?
Keith Law: I know how to play, but I play it very poorly.

Jay: Enjoyed your book! I’ve always been a stats person but was able to see things in a different perspective. Do you see Michael A. Taylor as a legit RF option for 2-3 years if Bryce leaves and they keep Soto? The defense could be incredible with Robles in CF and Eaton in LF.
Keith Law: Don’t think MAT has the OBP skills for RF. Agreed on defense, though.

John: In years past, I would try to measure who was the best defensive CF in the game, and it would vary from stat to stat. This past year, it kinda looks like Buxton stands out above all of them. Is that your assessment?
Keith Law: Yes, I think he’s the best. An 80 defender, 80 runner, huge arm strength, and not bad at the plate.

John S: it seems that if Franchy Cordero resolves his contact/pitch recognition skills he should be an above-average regular. not that the development is likely, but where do you think the experiment should take place SD or El Paso? it’s not as if the Padres are harming their chances of winning by playing him every day in LF.
Keith Law: I agree it’s unlikely, but I’m hoping he becomes part of that outfield rotation this year. El Paso probably won’t do much to advance his approach.

Yinka Double Dare: You must hate my team, I didn’t see a top 10 prospects for Mystery Team.
Keith Law: They wouldn’t take my calls.

TomahawkCruiseMissile: Does Rhys Hoskins have a chance to be as good of a LF as Kyle Schwarber?
Keith Law: I would say yes. Low bar, though.

Rick C: There’s some video on Twitter of Kyle Muller hitting 95mph off the mound, working with Driveline Baseball. Do you have any concerns with pitchers putting in the type of offseason work they might be doing?
Keith Law: I don’t have enough information or knowledge to be concerned. I know Driveline has posted videos of guys throwing very hard but in non-baseball conditions (different ball, for example).

sage: Most racist city you’ve personally visited?
Keith Law: Tough to say with visits, but I spent two academic years in Pittsburgh in the late 1990s and was floored by how segregated the city is and by the casual if subtle racism of the residents I encountered. There was no chance I was staying there after graduating – too grey, really – but that did not help.

Dr. Bob: Don’t know if you saw this, but I loved Derrick Goold’s simple answer to the question as to why the FA market is so slow: “Math.”
Keith Law: He’s not wrong.

Jshep12: Do you watch any college baseball? If so what are your thoughts on their continued use of metal bats? Is it just to expensive for them to use wooden bats or is the skill level there just not high enough?
Keith Law: That’s part of my job, yes. The bat manufacturers make sure the colleges use metal bats, even though wood bats would improve the product and help players get ready for pro ball.

Danny: Do you expect the Yankees to move Loasigia somewhat aggressively through the system (AA ball by season’s end?) because he’s already on the 40 man and does that necesitate a move to the bullpen?
Keith Law: Yes to the former, no to the latter. Starter potential there. You have three years before he has to be on the 25-man, and that should be plenty of time.

John S: any interest in going to Monterrey to see the Dodgers – Padres series? I feel like I’m the only one going which makes me wonder about the site selection.
Keith Law: In theory, sure, although it’s probably outside the scope of my job. If they play overseas again, I’d be more interested because I think there are non-baseball angles to cover.

Kay: Is is odd that I’m kind of encouraged by the raw talent in the Mets minors still? Desmond Lindsay and Justin Dunn are still young, raw, talented prospects who had rough years. Szapucki coming back from TJ, three legit LHP starter prospects…and a high pick this year. Not so bad
Keith Law: It’s just not that bad a system if they get everyone healthy. Lindsay had a vision issue, and then got hurt about six weeks after he got new goggles and started hitting. Considering how little they’ve gotten back in trades, I think the system is fine. They could just use some better luck this year – them and Colorado, who also had a ridiculous year of dudes getting hurt.

SJ: Do you see Zach Granite ever hitting enough to be a starter? If so, is his ceiling Kevin Pillar or more Kiermaier/someone else?
Keith Law: I don’t.

Joey Bagodonuts: Will you be doing a writeup of the Lincecum showcase? Seriously, though, if his velocity is back in the low 90s, he can be a decent pen option, can’t he? As long as he doesn’t face anyone more than once?
Keith Law: Sure, but I’d be shocked if he were throwing that hard.

SJ: Seems like Amir Garrett’s rough 2017 is attributed to pitching through a hip injury. If he’s healthy, how do you see him performing going forward?
Keith Law: Very good reliever potential, fourth starter-ish if he stays in the rotation.

John: Suppose Edgar and Trammell get into the Hall. Who do you suppose is the next cause celebre for the analytically minded?
Keith Law: Trammell’s in. Whitaker for the Vets committee clownshow, Mussina for the BBWAA.

SJ: Do you think Teoscar Hernandez ends up outplaying Grichuk/Granderson/etc to take a starting job at some point this year?
Keith Law: I think he has the best chance to become a full-time OF of that group.

Germolene: Following up on the Bayless eateries, were you able to try Frontera Cocina at Disney? We went last year, and it was amazing.
Keith Law: Yes, limited menu compared to Chicago but everything was excellent. Went twice. Even the margaritas were excellent and that’s not usually my drink of choice.

Jebby: As a vet, the worst thing about dog-and-ponies like parades is the opportunity cost. Even ignoring the explicit $ cost, all of the time sucked away from training and put toward rehearsals, inspections, and meetings…great way to convince airmen/marines/soldiers/sailors that the mission is secondary.
Keith Law: I would have given the same answer six months ago, but after reading The Body Keeps the Score, I’m even more incensed at how poorly we treat veterans who come home with PTSD. Trauma physically alters the brain. We asked these kids to go overseas and we owe them every possible medical resource to help them recover from the trauma to which they were exposed. You can keep your jingoistic, Leni Riefenstahl-inspired pomp and circumstance. I say put the same funds into training and deploying mental health specialists here for the veterans and around the world for soldiers on assignment.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all as always for all of your questions. Sorry I didn’t get to more of them. I’m starting some early draft work, including a top 30 ranking for some time in the next two weeks, and of course will be busy cranking through Oscar nominated films before the awards next month. I should be back for another chat next Thursday as well. Enjoy your weekends!

My National League org reports and top tens are all up now for Insiders, by division: West, Central, and East.

Keith Law: High on diesel gasoline … it’s Klawchat.

Mike: May have missed it, but haven’t seen your thoughts on Greene/Leone for Grichuk.
Keith Law: Didn’t write it up, too minor, discussed in last week’s chat. Greene is now in the Cardinals’ org report, which went up yesterday. Grichuk has been sunk by OBP problems dating back to when he was drafted.

Troy: Thoughts on what the Brewers have done? Will they add another SP and should they?
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re serious division contenders unless they add a real SP. And I don’t understand making those two big moves without addressing the rotation.

Deke: 15 years down the road, how will we look at the 2017-18 offseason? A blip, a new normal, or an impetus for systemic change?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a blip that led to a change in players’ attitudes towards CBA negotiations, after a round where they fought for quality of life improvements and ceded ground on more substantial issues.

Marshall MN: Klaw, last week you gave a pretty quick reply to a question about whether Stephen Gonsalves was considered as a Top 100 prospect. I realize that I am scouting the stat line some (that is all I CAN do afterall), but what did you hear this year as compared to last year when he did make the Top 100? Also…thank you!
Keith Law: Same guy he was a year ago, still doesn’t have the average breaking ball to make him more than a back end starter.

Jon Weisman: How many Padres prospects would be good enough to be in the Giants top 10?
Keith Law: If I combined the two lists, it would start with 7 Padres, then Ramos, then 2 more Padres.

Tom Hendry: I read somewhere that the Orioles consider Cameron Bishop off limits in trades. Has he really catapulted from being selected in the 27th or so round to being a top end prospect in the organization? Do you have thoughts on him?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard that he’s off limits, just that other teams have asked for him.
Keith Law: He’s in the O’s top ten, which will be up tomorrow.

WarBiscuit: Thoughts on the federal prosecution dropping all charges on Senator Menendez? Also thoughts on the Memo release?
Keith Law: I haven’t followed the Menendez case very closely, but I don’t care what party a politician is from – if he’s corrupt, he’s corrupt, get him out of there. As for the “Memo,” nothing the current Republican party surprises me any more.

Mike: With the current baseball economic system, can small market teams successfully stay competitive continually (like the Pirates ‘quick reload’ trades) or is it smarter to fully tank for a few years, take advantage of draft picks and the international system and then really go for it for a few years.
Keith Law: I think it depends on what your goal is. Are you trying to make money, to be competitive, to win a World Series? If the goal is a championship, then you probably need to sell off your older/more expensive major-league players for high-end prospects. You can’t really stock a system strictly through the draft; the Cubs landed Arrieta and Hendricks in dump trades, and the Astros did even more.

Chuck: Any idea why the A’s wanted Buchter? Is it his fly-ball proclivity and Oakland’s big park?
Keith Law: That’s a philosophy the A’s have followed for years.

Dana: Should the Yankees just go with Gleyber and Andujar at 2B/3B or bring in a veteran or two?
Keith Law: I’d definitely let Andujar start the year at 3b, but Gleyber hasn’t hit since June and may need some AAA time before he comes to the majors.

Josh: Looking forward with graduations, Do you see the top 3 after this season being Vlad Jr, Bo, and Tatis Jr?
Keith Law: Give me one guess as to your favorite team.

Robert: Do you think Soroka or Allard will debut with Atlanta this year? Also, who has the higher ceiling in your opinion?
Keith Law: Soroka more likely. Neither is a high-ceiling guy; Allard’s curveball is the best pitcher either guy has.

Dave: Is it too soon to assess how good the top of the draft is this year? If not, what type of player are the Tigers likely to get at 1-1– generational talent/All Star/solid regular/tall righty with a fastball?
Keith Law: There is no generational talent in this class but a lot of players who look like above-average regulars. It’s a good draft.

Zirinsky: Hi Keith. Will you be watching the super bowl and, if so, what will you be cooking?
Keith Law: The Super Bowl may be on the television, but I won’t really be watching it. I just don’t care.

Charlie: If you were the Nats, what prospects would you be willing to give up to get Realmuto? Robles? Soto?
Keith Law: Soto & Kieboom would be a great return for Miami, but I also think that’s fair given Realmuto’s age, cost, and production.

Jared: Going back to your Brewers answer, do you think getting a top of rotation pitcher is realistic for Milwaukee?
Keith Law: Who? Darvish isn’t that. Arrieta isn’t that. Not sure who they could get.

Guest: Have you tried out Gloomhaven, are you a fan of big 4X boardgames like it?
Keith Law: No. That’s not a board game. It’s an RPG in a board game box. Given its length, physical weight (20 lbs!), and cost ($120, I think), that’s just not a board game by my definition.

dan: do you agree with the blue jays prospects being ranked 7th?
Keith Law: I ranked them 17th.

Matt: Manny Machado to shortstop. Big deal?
Keith Law: I think he can still play it, and it certainly helps his value this winter.

Cleveland Kyle: Is Lazarito the next import to go from raw tools to top perspectice ala Robles?
Keith Law: I highly doubt it. He’s not a “raw tools” guy; he’s already in LF because he can’t throw well enough for anywhere else and doesn’t run enough for CF.

DJ: Does Taylor Hearn have enough secondary stuff to make it as a starter if control improves?
Keith Law: Very unlikely.

Rich: #BellLetsTalk. Let’s get the word out, Keith. No one should be ashamed to ask for help!
Keith Law: I’m not participating; that program has lacked oversight in the past, funneling money for a few years to a clinic that tried to talk trans kids out of being transgender. Hard pass.

Big Time Timmy Jim: hey klaw, thanks for all the hard work for the prospect rollout. I’m concerned Jose Siri is just the next Aquino – loud tools but an approach that just wont cut it in upper levels. Are my concerns valid or is Siri better equipped w/ his approach because he can play CF?
Keith Law: No, your concerns are valid. He swings and misses a ton, and he wasn’t young for low-A. He has to improve his approach AND move up two levels this year to be even a consideration for the top 100.

Jim Nantz: Is Brandon Nimmo worth holding onto for the Mets? Lots of trade buzz surrounding him. I think last year you thought of him as more of a 4th OF.
Keith Law: That’s almost certainly all he is. Between knee issues and platoon splits, he doesn’t seem like a starter.

Josh: Odds after this season Tatis Jr is seen unanimously as the superior SS prospect over Gleyber?
Keith Law: Not good, because Gleyber is absolutely a SS, while Tatis still may outgrow the position.

Freddy: If Alex Jackson can’t stick behind the plate, is the bat enough to be an every day corner OF?
Keith Law: Not yet, but the bat already improved a ton since Atlanta acquired him, so perhaps there is more improvement to come.

Don-key-ho-tay: Hey Keith. Can the Reds contend (or at least flirt w/ .5000) with the pitchers they’re throwing out there this year? (Castillo, Bailey, Disco, Romano, Mahle) or does too much have to go right with that group for that to happen?
Keith Law: I don’t believe they can or should. They’re no better than fourth in the division right now. They need to let the kids pitch and see who emerges as a clear starter – you omitted other guys who should be on the roster like Stephenson, Reed, Garrett – so they’re better set up for 2019 and beyond.

Aaron: Hey Keith, thanks for the lengthy write-up today on the Padres. I was surprised at how many more prospects you discussed than even the Braves # 1 system!
Keith Law: Padres have more guys, but a ton were in the AZL or even DSL, so they’re farther away & less valuable right now than some of Atlanta’s guys.

Brian: Why is Yadier Alvarez ranked substantially higher than Touki Toussaint? It seems like the plus stuff is similar, and Touki’s command and control is at least marginally better
Keith Law: Stuff isn’t that similar, Alvarez is more physical, Touki more athletic, neither throws enough strikes. More sentiment from pro scouts that Alvarez starts than Touki, although I bumped Touki up a bit because I believe he’s so athletic he’s going to find enough command to be a starter.

AJ: Hi KLaw. Am I crazy for thinking that a rebuilding team with payroll space (Phil, ChiSox) should be willing to take Ellsbury if they get Frazier and maybe Tate as well? Then flip him (keeping most of the salary) to a team out West (AZ, SF, etc.) For possibly a mid level prospect? Thanks.
Keith Law: I think Ellsbury is toast.

EL: Keen on any of the young guys signed out of the Bahamas? Do that country have a shot at becoming a minor baseball power like the Netherlands?
Keith Law: They’re all coming out of one program, I believe, and several of them are legit prospects – Chisholm and Robinson in particular, both with Arizona.

Tom Hendry: The Orioles are barely present on the international market. If they put in an average effort how many places higher would they be? What kind of a detriment is effectively ignoring that market?
Keith Law: Not sure you can ever have a top 10 system while ignoring the July 2nd market the way they do.

Arnold: What is the reason for the Giants’ poor farm system? Poor scouting? Emphasis on wrong type of player? Trading away their best prospects? Something else?
Keith Law: Lot of trades, rarely picking higher than they did last year (19th), terrible results internationally.

RSO: You have Justus Sheffield higher on your prospect list than most publications. When do you see him becoming a full time member of the Yankees rotation?
Keith Law: By year-end, pending opportunity, of course.

Don-key-ho-tay: A recent piece on pace of play brought some really interesting points (I think Scherzer had some great points) is a 20 second clock really too difficult to implement at highest level? At very least, conditioning minor leaguers to clock might see the pace quicken just based on churn, right?
Keith Law: Pitch clocks are going to increase pitcher injuries because they have less time for muscle recovery between pitches. God forbid we cut the fucking commercial breaks every time a team changes pitchers. We know why games are longer, but MLB keeps addressing non-factors.

RSO: What’s the deal with Blake Rutherford? He seemed like a stud while with the Yankees, and now he’s not being talked about at all.
Keith Law: Look at his year – he hit for no power at all and didn’t even hit for average like he should have. Hard to justify the year he had at age 20.

Derek: Are your prospects rankings based on prospect’s potential ceiling or what you expect from their career going forward
Keith Law: Those are factors as well as a prospect’s probability of having any positive value in the majors.

John: What do you think is holding up the free agent market this year?
Keith Law: It’s turtles all the way down.

NH: Matt Festa of the Mariners organization. What, if anything have you heard on him? Showed a strong propensity to miss bats last year, could he be a quick-rising relief prospect in their upper-minors?
Keith Law: Yes. He’s in their org report, which is … concise.

Patrick: You are obviously not as high on Florial as others. If you were running the Yankees and could make him a headliner for a Fulmer deal, how much more would you be comfortable giving up? Could it be done without Gleyber and Sheffield if Florial were on the table?
Keith Law: If the market thinks Florial is a top 100 prospect – which I’m not sure about, because I talked to a lot of people who saw what I saw, and execs who share my concerns – then he would be someone who could lead a Fulmer deal, maybe with a second top 100 guy thrown in. I do not know what Detroit wants, though.

John: As a Phillies fan, I am not quite sure how to feel right now about the franchise. They have been methodical in their rebuild, but unlike the Astros/Cubs, they dont have a few superstar core pieces to build around. Nola looks good, but has already had arm trouble. Their prospects, while looking like solid regulars, dont seem to have very high 70th percentile outcomes, and they’ve whiffed (it looks like) on a number of high picks in the last 5 years. Are they set to spin their wheels and be average over the next 5 years?
Keith Law: Don’t think it’s that dire; they have money to spend on free agents, and they look like they’ll have the prospect depth to swing a big deal or two. But the whiffs atop the draft are a real concern; they’ve been better with later picks, which is great, but you do have to hit more than half the time when you pick high.

Dutch: You think A.J. Reed could get some ABs as DH? Gattis has been very subpar the past few years.
Keith Law: I would love to see Reed get some of those ABs. Think he’ll swing and miss too much but get on base much more than Gattis does, and Reed has just as much power.

Chris: Hi Keith, I was surprised that Dustin May was ranked outside the top 10 for LAD. Do you see some reliever risk if the changeup doesn’t develop?
Keith Law: Yes, some violence in the delivery too.

Jay: Keith, what is your general opinion of Wagyu beef?
Keith Law: I don’t eat beef any more, but when I did, I didn’t understand paying extra for wagyu when it isn’t really a thing – Kobe beef is something very specific, but Wagyu is more of a marketing term. In theory, it’s better for the cows, the environment, and for the consumer because the meat has a better profile of fats, but you can’t guarantee what you’re getting.

RSO: Will the Yankees regret giving up Mateo, Kaprelian and Fowler for Sonny Gray?
Keith Law: Maybe, although since two were injured at the time, it was hard to argue with it – or with a deal that landed Gray but didn’t give up Torres or Sheffield.

John: Question: if MLB still wants to compensate teams for losing free agents, why not just give them compensation picks between rounds 1 and 2 instead of taking picks away from teams that sign free agents? It seems like that would be the best of both worlds scenario. Players could still sign wherever and get paid, teams would not be punished for signing free agents, and the teams losing players would still collect compensation picks to try and rebuild.
Keith Law: Because the point of compensation picks was never compensation: it’s punishment. MLB wanted to drag down free agent salaries and it worked.

ssimon: Hey Klaw, we know you are higher on Dom Smith than the Mets seem to be. Do you think the team is unfairly holding his 183 MLB PAs or the high-offense Las Vegas environment against him? (It can’t be Terry’s fault anymore.)
Keith Law: Yes, I do. He’s also started slow at several stops before. They shouldn’t act like this is a surprise.

Brian: Question about your observation that the Phillies system has depth but no superstars. With as much depth as they have, isn’t it likely that a few guys dramatically exceed expectations?
Keith Law: I don’t agree with that. It is likely that a few guys dramatically fall short of expectations, but the curve is not symmetrical about the mean.

leprekhan: How would you compare the interest level in the draft and prospects in general to say 5 years ago? Obviously it will vary from fans of different organizations, but overall it feels a bit like there is more interest than ever.
Keith Law: I agree. And I am fortunate that this is so.

Anton Chiguhr: Do you think Dombrowski moves on from JDM & seeks a trade or a Bautista/Cargo type reclamation?
Keith Law: I think Martinez ends up in Boston … but you could flip a coin.

John: I worry that the Brewers are getting a little ahead of themselves this offseason–their 86 win season was built on several out-of-character seasons from their players that aren’t that likely to be repeated. Seems like they’ve locked in to getting the end of Cain’s peak before they’re truly competitive with the Cubs and Cardinals, and then they’ll be stuck with some dead money in 2020-22. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I agree they may be over-estimating their odds of replicating 2017 performances, but I don’t think any of this money will be dead in 2020.

Troy: Luke Weaver a future 1or2 or more likely 4or5?
Keith Law: Way more likely 4 or 5.

Marissa: What are your thoughts on TJ Zeuch in the Blue Jays org?
Keith Law: Back-end starter. Jays report goes up tomorrow.

Dan: Carter Kieboom and E Fedde for Realmuto. Who says no?
Keith Law: Marlins.

jake: are you buying desmond lindsey’s issues being related to his vision (and now fixed)?
Keith Law: I wrote that.

John: You recommended Flavor Bible. Thank you so much! What a great tool! What do you think of their “what to drink with what you’re eating” book?
Keith Law: I’m not a wine drinker, so I haven’t read it.

Marshall MN: Is pitch recognition the key trait that ends up determining if a hitter can make it in the big leagues? Is it a teachable skill in your opinion?
Keith Law: It is a key trait but not the only one. It can improve, but it depends on the individual.

Reid: I always look forward to your work and as a Padres fan, it was great to read detailed info on so many of their prospects. While much of the talent is in the lower levels of the minors do you foresee an issue down the road with not enough room on the 40 man roster when they become Rule 5 eligible around the same time?
Keith Law: That’s possible, but would be an impetus for trades. I also think a few of those teenagers just won’t hit enough in pro ball to be rule 5 bait.

Jay: Assuming health, the likely top 4 starters for Houston are Verlander, Keuchel, Cole, McCullers. Who do you think should get the most starts as the 5th?
Keith Law: Morton would be 4th. McCullers still hasn’t shown he can stay healthy for a full season.

Rick: Do you think Brendan Mckay will try to play both ways in the minors or will the Rays make him pick a position?
Keith Law: I believe he’ll do both this year, and they may reevaluate after that. My #1 concern now for him is fatigue.

Dave: What’s your favorite dish to make using a sous vide device?
Keith Law: Chicken thighs. Whole Foods had 2-pound packages on sale this week, so I bought one (9 thighs), cooked them 4.5 hours at 165 degrees, chilled them, and then seared off a few each night for dinner.

Steve: What are the odds Cole Ragans hits your midseason top 50?
Keith Law: You tell me: does he throw more strikes? The walks are perplexing because he’s not truly wild and he repeats his delivery well.

Michael K : Hi Keith. I’m a big fan of your chat. I’m a lifelong Giants fan. With the #2 pick in the upcoming draft who do you think they should select?
Keith Law: Too soon. I’ll do a draft ranking in a few weeks, but even that will be on the early side, subject to a lot of change. I will say that there seems to be an early consensus that Ethan Hankins, Georgia prep RHP, is the top talent, but no HS RHP has ever gone 1-1.

Ted: Is the Red Sox farm system heading in the right direction after the 2017 draft and IFA signings? The 2 big trades and system grads left it bare, understandably.
Keith Law: Yes, the arrow is pointing up, but a lot of those new players’ values are still based on amateur looks.

Allan: Is a spike in velocity a warning sign for TJS, like in Joe Palumbo’s case.
Keith Law: I have never seen a study that attempted to prove/disprove the thesis, but I believe a sudden velocity spike increases the risk of a ligament tear. Perhaps the arm speeds up and the ligament can’t handle it?

Jared: Do you consider Archer top of rotation? I personally do not, but most Brewer fans do. His stats just don’t match up with his peripherals. Just wanted to get an expert’s opinion.
Keith Law: Potential top of rotation, hasn’t quite had those results.

Tom Hendry: The Astros made a lot of noise by reducing their minor league scouts. Didn’t the Orioles do this back in 2012? How many minor league scouts do they have vs. what is normal? Are few scouts a bad thing?
Keith Law: Not aware of the Orioles having fewer scouts; I think few scouts is a bad thing, yes. There is information you glean from watching players that won’t show up even in advanced data like Trackman provides. The latter is critical too, but why not supplement with in-person observation?

Chris: Do you see major changes ahead in the next CBA, as far as shifting more money toward players’ prime years (24 to 30) instead of teams signing guys to ten-year deals through age 40? It seems as though teams are beginning to realize the error of their ways, but the union’s not just going to give the owners that money.
Keith Law: It’s a few years down the road, but I would imagine players would fight more for earlier free agency next time.

Nate: Will you a preseason draft list or does it carry so little value at the end of the day, it isnt worth producing?
Keith Law: I do every year.
Keith Law: It’ll be up in a few weeks.

Stephen: What makes you higher on Justus Sheffield than most?
Keith Law: Don’t know. Ask Most why he’s so low on Sheffield.

Jeff: Lolo Sanchez and Luplow were absent from your Pirates writeup. Any quick thoughts/explanation on those guys?
Keith Law: Sanchez is on the Pirates’ writeup now; I screwed up and never transferred his blurb from my notes to the file I sent to ESPN. Luplow is an up-and-down guy at bst.

BRIAN: I know Cliff Frazier was not eligible for your prospect rankings – but he is really only a prospect with less than 150 ab last year… IF he was in the rankings — would he be top 50? Top 20? Is he a legit prospect or NY hype?
Keith Law: Would not be top 50. I understand the frustration about guys like him not making prospect lists, but we have to draw the line somewhere.

Nate: I see a lot of other reports on Matt Manning that are much more glowing than yours. What do you see his chances of developing the command and secondary stuff necessary to become more than a big armed bullpen guy?
Keith Law: People wishcast on players all the time; I can’t help that. He’s athletic enough to find the command and secondary stuff, but i can’t help but think he’ll need to scrap the CB for a slider and to get less robotic in his delivery first.

Aaron C.: Since 2002, the A’s have had spurts of MLB success, but it seems their minor league system has needed heavy supplementing from trades to actually bring talent into the pipeline. Why have the A’s struggled so much in the draft over the past 15 years?
Keith Law: I think where they’ve gone astray, it’s usually been on college performers whose tools didn’t/wouldn’t translate. I think they’ve drafted much better the last few years, though, even with Beck struggling in his first summer.

mike: Keith – Brewers question. Yelich was a great pickup, Cain a fair one. Let’s say they ARE in on Yu, and get him. Is a rotation of Yu, Nelson, Davies, Anderson and Chacin (with their above average bullpen) competing for an NL crown? It doesn’t pass the smell test.
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Scott: Any thoughts on Top Chef this season?
Keith Law: Haven’t watched.

Matthew: Thoughts on Senzel moving forward… quick player comp and how the Reds find him playing time. Or does he stay down until May 2019?
Keith Law: 2019? God I hope not. He’s ready or very close to it.

Mike D: I am nervous about Gabe Kapler, I do not want to see a couple of wasted years and start again. Does he have the managerial skills? Can he move this club forward ( if he gets pitching)?
Keith Law: I’m a big fan and I think he’ll be just what that roster needs, too.

Evan: Nolan Martinez doesn’t get a lot of press in a crowded Yankees system. What’s his upside long term?
Keith Law: Hurt all last year. Back-of-rotation upside if healthy.

Mike: Two OF questions – 1) are you still a believer in Dahl, IF he can stay healthy? 2) what do you make of Verdugo and his chance to be a key member of Dodgers’ OF plans?
Keith Law: I believe Dahl will be an above-average regular if healthy but don’t know if he’ll ever be healthy. That back injury is a bad one. Verdugo was in my top 50, above-average regular if/when he sticks.

ck: Just curious. When do you use a 6 arm for scouting vs 60 arm?
Keith Law: Same thing.

Marshall MN: Klaw which of your annual projects (top free agents, top amateur prospects, top draft prospects) do you most enjoy? Each seems like quite a lot of work, and I thoroughly enjoy reading each of them.
Keith Law: I hate the free agent stuff. The classes have been so bad the last few years that I end up talking about players I don’t think are very good.

Dan: Ellsbury was worth 1.8 WAR last yr
Keith Law: Thanks, Dr. Google. About 80% of that is the value he got for standing in centerfield. If he can’t move enough to truly play that, then he has no value.

Andy: Everyone would love for the Bahamas to become a baseball powerhouse. Talk about a fun place to scout players in.
Keith Law: Amen.

Ryan: saw you’re playing Charterstone. worthwhile with just 2, or would it benefit from a higher player count?
Keith Law: We’re playing with three; four might be nice, just because there would be more interaction. The empty areas on the board will eventually be filled in, though, so you’ll have more options, just less active agency interfering with your plans.

JR: Did you watch SOTU? I elected to get a work out in instead. Zero regrets.
Keith Law: Nope, don’t think I’ve ever actually watched a SOTU. It’s basically a political rally.

mike sixel: Why don’t you eat beef anymore? Any other meat restrictions?
Keith Law: My daughter and I share an inborn error of metabolism that led us to give it up.

Damon: How many years have to pass before we can say that the Padres did not properly capitalize on their 2016 Draft bonanza? Whitely, Bichette, Trammell, all available at for the teams first three picks and they selected none of them
Keith Law: That is pure hindsight.

Harry: Whatever happened to Hak Ju Lee??
Keith Law: Blew out his ankle in triple-A; when he came back, his speed was mostly gone.

Beau: Noticed no write-up on Vladimir Gutierrez: has he fallen off completely, still have potential? What’s he need to do? Thanks.
Keith Law: Back-end at best, likely middle reliever.

Chris: How did Corey Seager fall to the 18th pick in his draft?
Keith Law: Demanded an over slot bonus.

section 34: Klaw, I’m not one of those “stick to baseball” people. I like reading your opinions on other topics, whether or not I agree. But I am curious: on Twitter, you’re all about women’s issues lately. Why?
Keith Law: I’m pretty sure the world is all about women’s issues lately. It’s kind of in the news.

Bill: The write up on Lolo Sanchez in your NL Central guide seemed much more positive than the ranking. Is it just distance from majors keeping him out of the top 10?
Keith Law: Distance from majors and distance from reaching even a reasonable projection.

Craig: Ross Atkins said with the information teams have now, Nate Pearson would have gone 1-1.

Just an exec talking up a first round pick? Or does Pearson have that kind of talent?
Keith Law: Exec talking up a player. There is no chance that would happen, even now.

Dan: Hey Keith, I apologize if this is too personal, but when did you (or have you) had you start talking to your daughter about sex and related topics? I have a six and a three year old; I want to have age-appropriate conversations where I can tell them things in ways that they can understand without feeling overwhelmed or scared. Did you follow any recommended guideline or just use your judgment and answer questions as they came up? Thanks.
Keith Law: We had The Talk when she was 10, because we wanted to do that before she hit puberty and because it was clear she was starting to get hints from TV and from friends at school. It ended with her sitting under the table going “ew, ew, ew,” so I think we did a good job.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week; thank you as always for reading and for your questions. AL org reports begin tomorrow with the East, then Central Friday, West Saturday. And I’ll actually start blogging here again now that the prospect stuff is done. Thanks again!

My top 100 prospects rankings have been going up for Insiders this week, with 100 through 51, 50 through 1, and ten who just missed all up as of Thursday afternoon. The farm system rankings go up on Friday, and team by team reports start running on Monday.

Keith Law: You are a witness to the movement. Klawchat.

Frank: Why did Harrison Bader miss your rankings? He’s raked at every level, can run, has pop and can play a good CF. What contributed to his missing out?
Keith Law: Let me start with my annual disclaimer: There are many prospects who didn’t make the top 100 who still project as big-leaguers, or have above-average upside, or who I otherwise like as prospects. Bader is one of them – I think he’s a solid-average regular as a CF, maybe below that in a corner because he doesn’t project to get on base at an average rate or have above-average power.

Bill G: Thanks as always for the top prospect lists. Max Kepler and Nomar Mazara. Is there still upside or what we see is what we get. Thanks!
Keith Law: Still upside on both. I’m in.

Minnie: Virtu Honest Craft or Citizen Public House for an anniversary dinner? We’re more fun than fancy.
Keith Law: CPH is more fun, Virtu has better food but a shorter menu. CPH has a great cocktail menu too. They make my favorite negroni.

Tim: Any Jays pitching prospects worth talking about after Pearson? Also recommend “Samurai Spirit” board game.
Keith Law: All 30 org reports will run next week, one division a day, Monday through Saturday, I believe starting with the NL East. I had Borucki and Pardinho as the next two pitchers in the Jays’ system.

Kevin S.: Re: your Estevan Florial write-up – what are the chances you see him having an Alfonso Soriano-type career, where he has just enough plate recognition that his immense raw skills make him a good player, but is always frustrationg because it feels like he could be a superstar if he laid off a slider in the dirt?
Keith Law: Soriano was a hacker too, but I don’t think Florial is even that advanced in terms of approach, pitch recognition, or overall instincts. Plus Soriano did play the middle infield for a while, not well, but that gave him some extra value. Again, Florial isn’t a bad prospect by any means; he just has a long way to go.

Jon: Finally the top 100+. Thank you. Look forward to it every year. I always ask (as does everyone) for a couple of lower minors breakouts. I have Larry Ernesto as one, and Kristian Robinson. Would you mind adding a couple of your own? Thanks again for the lists.
Keith Law: I do a sleeper prospect for every team, and those will run in the org reports. Robinson > Ernesto, as much as we can say something like that on 16-year-olds.

Johnny: Alec Hansen had a 3.2 BB/9 last year which is not great, obviously. Where do you think it needs to be for you and scouts to believe in his #2 upside?
Keith Law: Think he can succeed with 45 control because he could have two swing and miss pitches. I’m also bullish because the White Sox have done so much to clean him up and get him to this point from where he was at Oklahoma, falling out of the first round completely after being a top 5 possibility to start the spring.

Nick: What’s your definition of a scout? I know you’ve said before that you didn’t consider yourself one.
Keith Law: I am not a scout. A scout is employed by an MLB team to cover an area for the draft (area scouts), to cover the top tier of guys in a region or country for the draft (supervisors and crosscheckers), to cover specific minor leagues or organizations from the majors down to A-ball (pro scouts), to cover the international amateur market (int’l scouts), or to cover a little of everything as needed (special assignment scouts). I am a writer who knows a little about how to scout. That’s very different. Nobody is using my reports to decide whether to acquire a player or how much to pay one.

TC: Did Jesse Winkler’s lack of power production in the minors along with his defensive limitations keep him from top 100 consideration?
Keith Law: He’s not rookie eligible, and thus not eligible for the rankings.

Nate (Seattle): Hey Keith, wondering where Amed Rosario would rank if he was still eligible?
Keith Law: I don’t rank guys who’ve exhausted their eligibility; we have major-league data on these guys that we don’t on most other prospects, making the comparison a bit unfair.

Pirate Boi: You ranked Mitch Keller 18th overall which is great, but the blurb about him being a 4th starter at the moment may have some Pirates fans worried. Where do you think he eventually falls and does Ray Searage’s ability to get the most out of pitchers factor in at all?
Keith Law: Lots of guys are top prospects without being at their ceilings right now; I have all these teenagers atop the list who probably wouldn’t hit much or hit for any power if you put them right in the majors. Keller is a top prospect with a high ceiling, but he has to find a better third pitch to get there.
Keith Law: Also, I say in the intro that all rankings are team agnostic. Keller could be traded tomorrow, so I don’t consider his org at all.

Joe: Triston McKenzie — how likely is it that he adds velocity since he still has so much projection? What does 2 MPH added mean for his ceiling?
Keith Law: His ranking assumes he’ll at least get to 90-94. He could get more than that; he’s projectable, but I don’t think he has a huge frame to end up at 240-250.

Brian: Keith, a random TV question for you. I know you are a big fan of the Wire. I was curious if you watched Treme and what your thoughts were on it. Thanks.
Keith Law: I did not. I watch almost no TV at this point because of time limitations. I read, I play games, I see movies, that doesn’t leave a whole lot of other time.

Tim: Corbin Burnes made the top 25 which was a pleasant surprise. If you were the Brewers, would you get him reps at AA this season and then skip the AAA call up all together?
Keith Law: Yes. I wouldn’t send any pitching prospects to Colorado Springs unless I wanted them to get high.

Mason: What are your thoughts on Kyle Lewis? I predicted he’d fall out of the top 100.
Keith Law: Didn’t appear to be 100% recovered from the knee injury. We’ll check in again in March and see how he’s moving.

DCS Foyle: A humble request for a random book to read. (It can’t be The Eyre Affair, which I loved and am grateful to you for!)
Keith Law: Best book I read in 2017, any genre, was either I Contain Multitudes or Evicted (Pulitzer winner for non-fiction).

twins fan: Could you give us some thoughts on Brusdar Graterol and Akill Badoo?
Keith Law: In the Twins report next week. I believe both are in their top ten (I haven’t written the AL Central yet).

Grant: If you managed the Cardinals, how would you handle playing time at catcher? It doesn’t seem like Molina is too keen on taking more days off, but they have to get Kelly playing time if he is to be the heir apparent behind the plate.
Keith Law: Yes; I understand the desire to keep Molina happy, and Kelly does have to work on getting the ball in the air more, but ideally you’re getting close to a 50/50 split and have Yadi working with Carson on the stuff he’s supposed to do so well, like handling pitchers. You can also make Yadi the late-game replacement when it’s close and Kelly started.

One Klawwy Boi: Which player in the 51-100 range do you give the best chance at being an absolute superstar?
Keith Law: Adell. Also has a fair chance of not panning out, but I think he has the most upside of anyone in the latter half.

Garrett: I was worried I was scouting stat lines when I saw Logan Allen so I was happy to see him make your list. Separately, what do you think of Chris Paddack even though he is hurt currently?
Keith Law: Fourth starter potential if healthy, probably will just get a brief mention in that loaded Padres system’s writeup.

Lucas: How many players on your top 100 have you not seen play in person?
Keith Law: I think 20 or fewer. Don’t think it’s any more than that. I’ll go into spring training with that list in hand to try to check as many off as I can.

Q Ball: Kolby Allard fell out of the top 100 but I was actually very fond of his 2017. He showed 150 innings of health pitching in the same league all year where batters saw him over and over again. And he was only 19 for the majority of the season. What am I missing?
Keith Law: You didn’t see him, I guess. He was working with a 45 fastball much of the year, and he always had durability questions because he’s on the smaller side. He’s a very different guy at 90-93 and touching a little more than at 87-88.

John: How close was Stephen Gonsalves to making the top 100?
Keith Law: Not close.

Marvin: If more teams follow the Astros and fire their scouts will that make it harder for you to get second opinions when compiling future top 100 lists?
Keith Law: I don’t think any teams are rushing to do that any time soon. But I don’t just talk to scouts, either.

Ethan: Should the Brewers give Keon Broxton more time, or trade him for pitching to make room for Brinson?
Keith Law: Trade Broxton, if he even has trade value. He was close to r-level last year.

Kelly: When you contact your Representatives do you call their office or email? I really want to voice my dissent but get anxious when talking on the phone
Keith Law: I call. It might help you to have 2-3 sentences written down and just read them off when you get someone on the phone. They’re used to it. If you’re polite, you’ll already be well above the median for calls they’ve gotten that day.

Patrick: Keith, as someone who cannot see your prospects list (my espn log-in isn’t working), a question rather on past rankings. Do you ever go back and see where you succeeded, where you didn’t, in forecasts? Does this reflection help you going forward?
Keith Law: It’s a constant process. I know where I got guys wrong – where it was on me, and where circumstances (like injury) I couldn’t predict were the cause. But you can’t do this job without keeping your mistakes somewhere in your mind so you don’t repeat them.

Erix: You were quite high on Logan Warmoth going into the draft. Has your opinion changed at all since?
Keith Law: No.

JR: Is Tatis Jr and Urias the best double play combo in the minors?
Keith Law: No, because I don’t think they’ll even play together to start the year.

Andrew: What does it look like when makeup derails a prospect’s career? Does he not work hard enough and perform poorly on the field, or is it off-the-field?
Keith Law: Those can all happen. It can be drugs or drinking; lack of conditioning, even just slacking on basic stuff like the rotator cuff strengthening pitchers do.

Ryan: Is there someone in the Mets system you could see making a big jump this year, like Anthony Kay, Lindsay or Nido? If not them, anyone else you have your eye on?
Keith Law: Kay, Lindsay (who was much better after he could see again), Gimenez, Mauricio, Vientos. I like their system even though it has become shallower due to trades & promotions.

Twinzies: Given the recent Kohl Stewart football rumors, I thought now would be a good time to ask what happened to him? I know he had injuries, but he didn’t seem to perform well when healthy. I’ve also heard about makeup/attitude issues from Twins beat writers and also wanted to know if you can expand on those makeup/attitude issues.
Keith Law: Stuff backed up, arm isn’t as quick as it was in HS. He denied the rumors, BTW. Never, ever heard a bad word about his makeup.

Rick: What do you make of the Amed Rosario and Dom Smith debuts?
Keith Law: Nothing. Tiny samples, first time around the majors. Mike Trout wasn’t very good his first callup either, so reacting one way or the other to any two-month stint would be folly.

Jason: What kept Adonis Medina off the list? Your report last year with him was glowing
Keith Law: It was glowing, and I like him, but he wasn’t really even close because other teams have great A-ball prospects too.

Patrick: Keith, thanks for the time feeding the baseball beast!
Do you have a ranking of music you are looking forward to this year, too?
Keith Law: Nah, I take it as it comes.

Ed: I’m a meat-eater looking to cut back and implement more vegetarian dishes in my diet – any cookbook recommendations for vegetarian dishes? I didn’t see one on your recommended cookbooks list.
Keith Law: I have several veg-focused books on that list, like Plenty and Tender and Broad Fork, that aren’t strictly vegetarian. You will find plenty in there to work with, though. I also recently got Jeremy Fox’s On Vegetables, which has some great ideas, although the recipes are not well written for the home chef.

Richard: Tomorrow will you be releasing the list of players who just missed the just missed the top 100 list?
Keith Law: That went up this morning and the link is right above this chat window.

WarBiscuits: I know you were against Hoffman’s induction, but honestly I’m glad it opens up a spot for the Rolen/A. Jones types who get way too little mention. It’s annoying how Andruw Jones and Scott Rolen, who are considered one of the best defensive players for their position, like Vizquel(by peers, not stats), but both had a much better bat than Vizquel. For me Rolen/Jones should have been prioritized over Vizquel.
Keith Law: Agreed especially on Rolen. Both he and Andruw were clearly better than Vizquel, whose support seems to be entirely from writers who say “you just had to see him play.” (I did. He wasn’t Ozzie, and he wasn’t Andrelton.)

Sonny: Is your issue with the HOF the voting process or the voters?
Keith Law: Some of both, really. The limit should not be 10, players shouldn’t fall off unless they get 0 votes, and writers really need to let go of the bullshit stats that defined so much of the game’s first hundred years. They don’t work, teams don’t so much as look at them, so stop pretending saves and RBIz and pitcher wins mean anything at all.

WDE: Are you considering making a visit to one of the SEC colleges like Auburn, Florida or MSU this spring? It seems like this college baseball season will be fun.
Keith Law: I’ll see the top guys but not sure where. Very unlikely to go to MSU, just because of time/cost to get there when I can see them on the road, like at Vanderbilt … which is in Nashville … which has such great food.

Tim: Was there a guy that you just couldn’t quite put on the 100 yet, that you are afraid may come back to haunt you?
Keith Law: Sure. Florial and Mountcastle were guys I wrestled with a lot. Hill just wasn’t back and healthy enough for me to push him on, even though I’ve always liked him.

Drew: Hey Keith, I love your work and content. Quick question on Chance Adams…It seems to be a consensus that hes not a top 100 prospect, but how would you value his upside and likelihood of reaching his potential?
Keith Law: Fourth/fifth starter ceiling, likely reliever.

David: I would not vote for Hoffman, but given how hard the baseball HOF is to get in, who are we to say he is undeserving?
Keith Law: Someone has to say it.

Jim (Chicago): Thanks for the hard work, Keith. I imagine Luis Robert must be difficult to rank due to his limited time in the US, but I was curious if he moved up or down for you after you spoke to those at the White Sox hitting camp last week? Did you hear any new information on him after that camp?
Keith Law: Extremely difficult, but that hitting camp doesn’t give us any new info. That’s just practice, nothing from which we can glean any useful insight.

Rick C: I understand that the lists are non-sequential, but the inclusion of Allard in the top 50 (#26 IIRC) at midseason and then being totally off the top 100 a few months later really does not make sense to me. How can someone go from being that highly regarded to being off the list entirely in such a short time? And if he’s really not a top 100 prospect now, that to me indicates a flaw in the process of developing the previous list.
Keith Law: The midseason top 50 list is a single file, developed in less than a week, with a sentence or two on each player. The top 100 is a two-month process that runs about 30,000 words that run over two weeks with long capsules on every top 100 guy. This really isn’t hard to understand.

Jeff: Keith, I believe you had LAD’s Mitch White on your mid season top 50, but not in the top 100 just released. Can you explain what caused the drop & what you see as his likely outcome? Thanks as always for the prospect package. Only reason I keep paying for Insider.
Keith Law: He got hurt and wasn’t good in the second half. Lot more on him in the Dodgers’ writeup (which is actually done already … 16 teams written so far).

Carl: As a Tigers fan, with the #1 pick in the draft is there much to get excited about?
Keith Law: Yes. Good draft, deep too, so good for a team with high picks and lots of bonus $.

Larry: Surprised you had Luis Robert in your rankings without having played a game on US soil. Were the reports from the DSL so strong that you couldn’t leave him off?
Keith Law: Plenty of precedent for that. Maitan and Sano made my lists in previous years before they played. I’ve ranked some drafted players who sat out the summer too.

J.P.: Where would Ohtani have ranked on your list, had he been eligible?
Keith Law: This is why he’s not eligible. How do you compare a player with years of NPB data and success to players here who haven’t faced that level of competition?

Henry: What is the Keith Law diagnosis for the frozen MLB market?
Keith Law: I’m thrilled. More time for me to work on the prospects.

Harold: Will Hoffman be the last sub 30 WAR guy to make the HOF?
Keith Law: We can only hope so. If you add Vizquel’s WAR to Hoffman’s, you get less than half of Barry Bonds’.

Timmy: I understand that a few spots in the rankings is virtually meaningless. That said, how do you determine who to rank higher b/t top players at the same position, like Buehler, Whitley, Kopech, for example?
Keith Law: I do a lot of pairwise comparisons to get to the final list, especially at the top. I’m comparing total packages and individual attributes.

JR: Did any team not have at least one player on the Top 100? As a Mets fan, was bummed to only see one guy in Top 100, I know they’ve promoted a bunch of top guys the past couple years, but still disappointing to see they haven’t been able to replenish the farm like other teams (cough, yankees, cough) have.
Keith Law: Mariners and Royals were shut out. Giants had one at 95 and that’s it. Rangers and Marlins each had one as well.
Keith Law: And the Mets have not done well in trades to acquire prospects from other teams, and they haven’t gone over slot in the draft like most teams have to acquire extra high-ceiling guys.

Jake: How surprised would you be if Tatis became a better offensive player than Acuna?
Keith Law: Not surprised, but Acuna stays in the middle of the field and Tatis is maybe 50/50 to move to third or elsewhere.

Robbie: The angels actually have prospects on your top 100 list and I couldn’t be more excited. Have you noticed any development method changes with the organization or did they simply make better picks?
Keith Law: Better picks. No more strip-mining in trades. International signings starting to bubble up to the list too.

Baltimore Joe: You’ve just been named the GM of the Orioles. Name your first five moves.
Keith Law: This is largely about whether the owner wants to compete or rebuild. I think it’s a rebuild situation – trade Machado for everything you can get, trade Britton if/when he’s healthy, hope to pick high for a few years, actually spend something internationally.

Rick: I don’t recall you ever mentioning how much animal agriculture is contributing to global warming. Do you have any thoughts on ways to reduce this problem?
Keith Law: It’s come up many times in my Saturday links posts. Developed societies tend to eat too much protein in general, more than we need, and the idea of the meat-centric meal is probably outdated. Dan Barber’s book The Third Plate looks into this at great length and without preconceived notions.

JP4424: Read Adlers book, it’ll let you know the diary isn’t a joke.
Keith Law: That’s kind of horrifying that anyone can write that pretentiously without a hint of irony or humor.

Greg: You seem to travel quite a bit within the states, but haven’t heard much of your international treks, if any. Do you have a favorite int’l destination? What’s on your bucket list?
Keith Law: I haven’t left North America since my daughter was born except for a family trip to Hawai’i when we lived in Arizona. I am hoping to get to Italy in the next year to see my cousins there, and then maybe do something else while in Europe. Extreme bucket list … Chile, Buenos Aires, Morocco, Tokyo/Kyoto, the Maldives, Botswana, Costa Rica … I could go on …

Sean: Interested to see your writeup on Keller and concerns about fastball command. His low WHIP and walk rates seemed impressive compared to other similarly rated prospects, especially in the high minors. Is this a case of it would be exposed better by major league hitters and isnt as visible in a minor league stat line? Also, do you think his K rates will translate or will he need more development of the changeup to get strikeouts at the major league level? P.S. Thanks for all the great work on the top 100 and beyond…always something to look forward to every winter!
Keith Law: WHIP sucks, don’t use it for evaluating players. Command and control aren’t the same – control is really just throwing strikes and not walking guys, but command is about location, even within the zone (or outside of it, as needed). Because his fastball can be pretty straight, he needs to be more precise when throwing it than a guy with plus life on the pitch might have to be. Velocity does mitigate some command issues but big league hitters can still turn on 100 mph if it’s straight and gets too much of the plate.

Pat: Tigers pitchers- How close were Burrows, Manning & Faedo to the top 100? What would each need to do in 2018 to make the leap on to the list next year?
Keith Law: Burrows the best of those three. Manning just was not good in 2017 – stuff was down, breaking ball still isn’t there, and he had major control issues in the spring and in extended.

Bort: A trade of Manny Machado to the Indians for Danny Salazar + Greg Allen/Tyler Naquin/Yandy Diaz makes too much sense not to happen, right? If the O’s take the OFer as the second piece they could then sign Moustakas, who should do well in that park/league.
Keith Law: That’s a weak return for Baltimore. Also, why would Moustakas do well in that park?

US Citizens : Give me some hope that our country survives the next three years. We survived World War II so I guess we can survive anything.
Keith Law: We will survive, but we will never be the same.

Colin: So no Tyler O’Neill in the Top 110 after a decent 2017… was he close? Concerned about his ability to make contact or just doesnt off much beyond the power?
Keith Law: Not close, and a .321 OBP for a corner OF is not “decent.”

Todd: The Mets’ ridiculous signings of Jay Bruce and A-Gon make it obvious they hate Dominic Smith. Would now be a good time for a team to swoop in and buy low on him or do you share some of the Mets’ concerns?
Keith Law: I don’t even know what their concerns are. I would certainly be trying to acquire him.

Adam Trask: Which was a worse HOF selection, Hoffman or Morris?
Keith Law: I actually think Morris was worse, even though Hoffman had less value and is also clearly unworthy, because Morris’ case was based completely on bullshit revisionism, while Hoffman’s was based on belief in a bad stat.

Joe: Klaw – making my first trip to Phoenix in the spring. Is Pizzeria Blanca somewhere I can just show up and get a table – or possibly wait 30 mins for a table? Just need a general sense of what level of planning should go into my birthday dinner.
Keith Law: Yes, at the Town & Country location off US 51.

Dr. Bob: If you’re not a scout, are you then an analyst, in that you use other people’s data to make ratings and projections?
Keith Law: I’m just a writer. Anything more than that is unnecessary to me.

Dave: Is Mark Appel a non prospect? Reclamation project?
Keith Law: Ended the year on the shelf with a sore shoulder, obviously wasn’t great before that, so I’d say reclamation project but with the clock ticking.

John: Would Jose Siri be somewhere in the next 100?
Keith Law: I guess, but he was 21 in low-A and swings and misses a ton.

Mitchell: What do you expect from Kevin Maitan at this point? Is he looking like a complete bust, or could he still become a great player? Or somewhere in-between?
Keith Law: Only 18 this year. Still plenty of time to turn it around, but he will have to start to work harder on his body and his swing than he did last year.

Dave: last year you had Corey Ray(34), Isan Diaz(41), Trent Grisham(67), and Luis Ortiz(71) for the Brewers. Did the Brewers get more talented players to have these drop from the list or was it case of just a decline in performance that dropped them from the list?
Keith Law: If those guys still belonged, they would still be on the list, regardless of who else the Brewers acquired.

Tom: Bryan Mata seems to be fairly advanced for his age, albeit without overpowering stuff. Do you project him as much more than a mid-rotation pitcher if he fills out his frame?
Keith Law: Not overpowering stuff, but better than Ronny Raudes, their low-A stats guy from last year, so I’m more bullish. And Mata has some projection left. Mid-rotation is within reach.

Carlo: What would Austin Beck need to show you this year to bump him into the top 100?
Keith Law: He has to hit.

Matt: It’s kinda funny how the more unpopular Jeter becomes, the more popular A-Rod becomes. Who said God doesn’t have a sense of humor?
Keith Law: Martin Gore said He had one, just that it was sick.

Arnold: Thoughts on this new OF the Giants have constructed, Pence in LF, Jackson in CF, McCutchen in RF. It strikes me as a lot of age and likely injuries out there.
Keith Law: And possibly a lot more base hits falling in this year.

Nic: Hey Keith, loved the top 100 as always. Just a few questions: why the big difference in opinion between you and the general consensus on prospects like perez(you are on the high side), and adams(you dont even have him top 100)?Is it you saw them on days when they were either really good or bad, you get different reports from different scouts than everyone else, or you value certain abilities higher when compiling a ranking, or something else?Thanks again for the chat, love your work.
Keith Law: No idea about the “consensus.” I talk to scouts, execs, etc. This isn’t just what I saw.

Matt Malone: Do you believe any changes in organizational philosophy will occur in Atlanta after it got hit with sanctions?
Keith Law: Yes. I believe they won’t break the rules.

Nick: Can you see any pitcher make a jump like Whitley did in 2017? Maybe Jesus Luzardo?
Keith Law: I do think Luzardo could fly up the list now that he’s healthy, if he shows that stuff for an extended period.

Tom: Do the D-backs still have the worst farm system this year?
Keith Law: Rankings tomorrow. They are not 30th.

Pat D: I had The Florida Project #3 on my list for the year, but I’m not too surprised it was snubbed, because I’m guessing it wasn’t seen by enough people. How many of the nominees have you seen, and what would you pick?
Keith Law: I’ve seen 7 of 9, needing Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread. Shape of Water would be #1 for me of the 7 I’ve seen, followed by Dunkirk.

Jon: Keith, based on defense only, how would you order the following: Edmonds, Rolen, Vizquel?
Keith Law: Rolen, Edmonds, Vizquel.

Amy: You can also call reps after hours and leave a voicemail!
Keith Law: That works too.

Nick: Justin Dunn obviously had a pretty poor 2017. I’m guessing he should start 2018 back at Hi-A. Are you still bullish on him going forward as a SP prospect?
Keith Law: Stuff was fine, but he was way more raw as a pitcher than anyone seemed to think before the draft. Still 93-95 even on bad days, still athletic, but I think the Mets have a lot of development work to do with him and they haven’t had a guy like him in a while. I’d still take him in a trade in a heartbeat.

Ethan: Can you give us any kind of picture on what has to be your vast amount of notes look like? Spreadsheets, Word Docs, notebooks, how many?
Keith Law: One Word doc per org. One Word doc per scout/source. A spreadsheet to track all the top tens and the 100. And my scouting notebook.

Dr. Bob: You steadfastly refuse to comment on why you rank players differently than on other lists, which is fine. However, has a player ever that you didn’t care for show up on someone else’s list, making you at least go back and review your notes to see if you might have missed something?
Keith Law: Don’t think so, just because I’m running through so many players to get to my 100.

Joe: Keith, I was a bit surprised to see Acevedo get so close to the list. Is the stuff that good even though he is a pure relief prospect?
Keith Law: Stuff and control. Still think he’s a reliever, but he has started with some success throughout the minors.

Scott: Were you a fan of the Brit band “The Fall”?
Keith Law: Not really. Have known about them and heard some of their stuff going back to high school, but Smith’s stuff was always just a bit too weird, too anti-melodic, too non-musical for me. RIP.

Corey: Could Chavis be on track as the Sox 1B in ’20 with Moreland keeping the seat warm until then ?
Keith Law: Yes.

Nick: Mark Vientos had a nice start to his professional baseball career. Where would you start him in 2018 and what position do you see him playing going forward?
Keith Law: Low-A. I think he goes to third. If Gimenez returns to low-A (he’ll be just 19, Vientos 18), then move Vientos to the hot corner when Gimenez is at short.

JJ: Mike Mussina and your former colleague Curt Schilling have always seemed like a tandem in the HOF voting, but Mussina pulled significantly ahead on the ballots this year. It looks like he might actually get in over the next couple of years. Do you think, if he shuts off his internet for a year or two, that Schilling will join him?
Keith Law: I think Curt’s political and other comments have hurt him enough in the voting that he will probably plateau in the 50-60 range while Moose gets in.

Jeff: I know you don’t consider or worry about other rankings when you make your top 100, but what concerns you about Chance Adams, who appears to consistently be among the top 100 prospects on other rankings?
Keith Law: Yeah, that’s a better question for other rankings – why a short RHP without a plus pitch or much fastball plane/life is a top 100 guy.

JD: any oscar disappointments or pleasant surprises for you?
Keith Law: Really disappointed that Florida Project didn’t get a nomination for Best Picture when there was a damn spot open. This was not going to happen, but I would have loved to see Kogonada get a Best Original Screenplay nomination for Columbus.

Bill: I wish the Mets shared your feelings about two-month debuts. Adrian Gonzales? Really? What the fuck?
Keith Law: I guess the Mets felt they really needed a clubhouse lawyer.

JD: 10 HOF votes for Johan Santana, same as Jamie Moyer. Obviously he’s not a HOFer, but did he deserve better, given that he was the best pitcher in baseball for ~5 years?
Keith Law: Yes, he did. And having him off the ballot doesn’t really serve any greater purpose.

Rob: Thanks for the lists as always. Glad to see the Phils fairly well represented. If we could just fast forward til when those pitchers are ready. Do you have a favorite Stephen Starr place in Philadelphia?
Keith Law: Pizzeria Stella. And go spend some time in Reading, Lehigh, Lakewood this year. They’ll all be pretty fun.

john wick: I understand your decision to not rank Ohtani. Would you rather have him or Acuna for the next six years to start a franchise with?
Keith Law: I think you have to take Ohtani because he’s major-league ready – and not ready in the sense of “won’t be bad,” but in the sense of “probably awesome right away.”

Bret: What percentage chance would you give Bo Bichette to stick at shortstop? Is he a plus second baseman if he moves there?
Keith Law: I know he works his ass off but I don’t think he is a shortstop long term. He plays fast and hard, and I don’t think he’ll be consistent enough or have steady enough footwork for short.

Ike: Would candelario have been in the top 100 if he were still eligible?
Keith Law: No. Not enough glove or power.

JD: Reports say Manfred will impose (1) a firm 20-second pitch clock with a one-ball penalty and (2) only one mound visit per pitcher per inning *by anybody*, player or coach. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I oppose 1, I’m fine with 2.

Rick C: So you’re saying we shouldn’t pay much attention to your midseason rankings?
Keith Law: I’m saying you should not place equal weight on the two, or harp on the idea that a player’s ranking changed dramatically between the two. I start every top 100 from scratch, not by writing down the midseason top 50 and moving guys around.

Martin: My wife is 12 weeks pregnant, any book recommendations on parenting etc would be highly appreciated!
Keith Law: Congratulations! Happiest Baby on the Block.

Brett: Does Yordan Alvarez’s move to the OF hurt his prospect stock?
Keith Law: Don’t see why it would hurt his stock, but I can’t imagine he’ll be OK out there either.

Adam: If you’re the Marlins, with that system, how seriously would you consider making “lottery ticket” trades with Yelich and Realmuto? I feel like getting 7-8 high risk/reward prospects for them has potential to be more rewarding than 2-3 guys in the Top 100 right now.
Keith Law: Absolutely. Go big. You may not get this chance again.

Chad: KLaw – Any chance you want to take pity on me re: the top few of your 2018 draft, like I asked on twitter? I dont want to step on content but i need to draaaaaaaaaaaaft lol.
Keith Law: I won’t even think about this until February. I don’t like answering questions when I haven’t done the work to give thoughtful answers.

Joe: Did Blake Rutherford get any consideration?
Keith Law: No. He and Moniak were both far worse than they should have been, different reasons but same outcome.

Anthony : Was Willie Calhoun not considered due to the lack of defensive position? Where do you see his upside and at what position?
Keith Law: Lack of defensive position is kind of a problem, yes. Not a 2b at all. Probably not a good LF. Not many 5’6″ power hitters in today’s game either.

JD: Have the Coppolella ban and the Braves’ other punishments affected the upcoming J2 process?
Keith Law: No, they were in the penalty box anyway for going over their limits in 2016-17.

Richard: You missed my joke. I meant an additional list “the just missed the just missed the top 100”.
Keith Law: My apologies. Sometimes I read too fast.

Josh: Nine movies being nominated for best picture seems a bit much, no?
Keith Law: To me the extra 5 slots are justified by the boost lesser-known films get from such nominations. I’m pretty sure the nomination just got Darkest Hour another week at my local theater. People will go seek out movies that earned nominations, so if there’s a good indie film that was worthy anyway, why not give it that last slot?

Steve: I could be misremembering weren’t you against the O’s stopping Arrieta from throwing across his body but it’s now not a good approach for Harvey?
Keith Law: Pitcher mechanics are not one size fits all. Arrieta had success throwing across his body and never got hurt. Harvey started throwing across his body in pro ball and almost immediately blew out.

Matt: Hawaii isn’t part of N America?
Keith Law: Um … Hawai’i is in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, 2500 miles away from California. It’s on the Pacific Plate, not the North American Plate. Are you new?

Chris: I’m sure this has been asked a bunch but why doesnt dot com run your lists 51-1, etc as titled? i think this came up last year too.
Keith Law: Not my decision.

Eric: Why should Hall of Fame voters care what teams use to judge players? Teams are trying to predict future performance, and Hall of Fame voters are trying to measure past performance.
Keith Law: Teams also measure past performance. They do it a lot better than dingbats who use W SV RBI AVG DERP.

Paul: Has your opinion on whether Royce Lewis can stay at shortstop changed or is it just the Twins who are optimistic about it?
Keith Law: Twins are optimistic. I try to reset judgments on players when they get into pro ball because they get help from new coaches and of course the entire game is different – wood bats, play every day, faster pace, etc.

Dr. Bob: If a pitcher’s job is to get outs, then why are you so dismissive of WHIP? Too broad?
Keith Law: I explain more in Smart Baseball, but in short, pitchers don’t really control hits on balls in play enough for WHIP to be meaningful, and WHIP itself is bad math (measured in batters on top, innings on the bottom). I don’t look at BB/9, but at BB/PA — really (BB-IBB)/(PA-IBB).
Keith Law: Sorry, for a pitcher PA in that denominator would be TBF, and you’d take out SH if it’s included too.

Kevin: How many people asking questions in the queue throw fake names at you. Like, how did Chauncey Gardiner not make the top 100? That guy walks on water.
Keith Law: You reminded me of the fake Coachella poster going around that has band names created by a machine-learning program that took in hundreds of real band names as inputs. It was something else.

Mike: Where would you rank your player evaluation knowledge with someone like Theo or anyone else who is running a team? Is there a high ceiling where some people are really much better than others or is it many ways a skill that doesn’t allow one person to be much better than anyone else who knows what to look for?
Keith Law: I do not put my skills or knowledge up against those who do this for teams. They have more information, they need to base major decisions on their evaluations, and they aren’t trying to entertain anybody.

nelson: Did you see Good Time? Thought it was one of the best movies I saw this year, for what it’s worth.
Keith Law: I did. Pattinson was good, but I hated just about everything else about it: http://klaw.me/2AWJ3RI
Keith Law: Score was good, though.

Mark: I’m a big music fan and I can’t name one Fall song. Any recommendations?
Keith Law: Hit the North and Mountain Energy are two of their more accessible singles.

Ben: Keith, enjoying top 100 and having fun diving into Smart (sp!) Baseball. Faintly remembering you favorably comparing Jordan Hicks v Sandy Alcantara this past year. SA made the list, JH didn’t, so just curious – anything change to adjust your opinion on JH, or is it a reflection of SA’s proximity to majors? Thanks again!
Keith Law: Alcantara is closer, little further along as a pitcher, where Hicks has more pure stuff. Hicks has had some little hiccups along the way that Alcantara hasn’t.

Brian: Do you get a Hall vote next year?
Keith Law: I do. I’ll clearly have Bonds, Clemens, Edgar, Moose, Rolen, Schilling, Walker, and Mo, leaving two spots for a decent group of borderline guys, including Halladay, Manny, Sheffield, etc.

Baldy Rob: Is there a decent chance Loaisiga and/or Tate make next year’s list if they continue building on what they showed in the second half of last season?
Keith Law: A chance, yes.

Adam Doctolero: In response to Minnie, I would go with Virtu. I’ve eaten there three times and each time it was the highlight of the trip I was on. Keith is right, the menu is shorter, but for me that’s a good thing. It’s a great vibe with great service and fantastic food and drinks.
Keith Law: Never had a bad meal at either place, really.

JR: Why do you think people have such strong opinions about the HOF? Why not just be happy for the players that get in?
Keith Law: Dunno. People also really seemed to think I would be upset that Hoffman got it. I could not care less about this – having opinions on these matters is my job, and if I can mine humor from it, great.

KS: If Jazz Chisholm stays healthy this season do you expect him to be a candidate for the 2019 top 100 list?
Keith Law: If you asked me last year, I would have predicted he’d make this year’s list. Then he got hurt and had no chance to show any progress. So … I hope so.

Todd: Marcus Stroman is successful, hes short, why cant Chance Adams be?
Keith Law: Yes, all short pitchers are Marcus Stroman. Exactly.
Keith Law: Willie Calhoun is my height. I would suggest you draft him for your fantasy team and not me.

Tom: Do you have any loose rule about how many opinions you want on a player before being comfortable forming a full opinion? Is it different if it is a scout and an exec vs two scouts or just your own eval and nothing else?
Keith Law: Never just me. That’s the one big rule. I think the minimum I need to feel good about a player is three – mine and two others, scouts or execs. After that, more opinions are good (pretty sure I talked to 3 guys who saw Manning and more than 4 on Florial), but there tend to be diminishing returns beyond that.

Joe: Keith, I am moving to the Tampa area for work. Are people allowed to watch GCL games? Not looking for a high level of play, but just a way to kill a few hours here and there.
Keith Law: Yes, usually can just walk in.

Dr. Bob: You once commented that a college player should be in high-A very quickly after signing. Wouldn’t a good high-school signee have advanced that far or farther by age 22? If so, what does that say about how well a player will develop in college vs. how well he will develop at Rookie and low-A?
Keith Law: Depends. Some kids at 18 aren’t physically developed enough to handle the rigors of pro ball, but get there by 21.

Witt Jr.: Where would you rank Witt Jr. and any comps?
Keith Law: He’s 2019 draft. He might as well be a fictional character for me at this point. No, I care more about fictional characters than guys for future drafts.

Rick C: FTR, that was not me that asked if we shouldn’t pay attention to your midseason rankings. Someone took my name, oddly.
Keith Law: That person has gotten progressively nastier, too.

Tom C: Especially because of all the pitching changes in every game, why didn’t Manfred propose “relief pitchers get 2 warm up pitches when they enter the game?
Keith Law: This is one I don’t understand, although of course I’ve never pitched, but can we shift more of the warmup to the bullpen? Require pitchers to be more ready when they come in? My suspicion has long been that we can, but it would cut into commercial time. If you killed mid-inning commercial breaks, games would feel MUCH faster.

qq: Were you surprised by MLBAM/Bob Bowman story?
Keith Law: Nothing and nobody surprises me any more.

Jeff: I know you consider Ohtani a #1 ML SP and don’t buy him as an everyday bat, but would you do anything at all with him as a hitter or just forget it and have him concentrate 100% on pitching?
Keith Law: If he wants to hit, you probably have to find a way to make it work. Plus their current DH might be the worst player in baseball.

Jon: What are your feelings on stumping for or against HOF candidates? Do you think Jonah Keri or Joe Morgan impacted the voting for Raines, Bonds/Clemens?
Keith Law: I’ve always been vocal about whether I would or wouldn’t vote for players – I came out for Raines right away, and wrote about how I thought the all-white electorate was being harder on him than it was on white candidates with similar drug use histories. Whether it affects anything, I don’t know, but I’m not trying to sway voters so much as talk to all of you.

Kevin: Blasphemous Rumors! Nice Pull. Have you played any of the Ticket to Ride Expansion boards? Do you have a favorite?
Keith Law: Europe is great. I have the England and PA boards for the app and haven’t tested them out yet. Also my daughter and I played the France map at PAX Unplugged and it’s very different, I think in a good way.

Brett: If I said Ronald Acuna to your wife, would she have any clue who that was?
Keith Law: I just said it to her, and she said, “Is that like Hakuna Matata? It’s a wonderful phrase.” So that’s a no.

Logan: Thoughts on the Grichuk deal? Thanks, really liked your book.
Keith Law: Grichuk has long been a 4th OF for me, sunk by poor plate discipline, esp recognition of breaking stuff. Greene throws hard, up to 99, trouble repeating, may have to go to the bullpen. Leone is a solid middle reliever when he’s healthy.

Drew: Is Seth Romero’s makeup is main achilles heel or are there other reasons for Nats fans to be skeptical of him?
Keith Law: Not a great delivery either. But you can’t ignore the stuff.

Tom C: It’s funny to me people who complain that players should vote for HoF, MVP, etc because “they played the game”; like it hasn’t been proven 1) they’re just as bad at it as anyone, 2) they have their own personal biases and 3) oh BTW, people will still be mad when the players don’t vote in their own favorite guy.
Keith Law: Aren’t player votes for the All Star Game often worse? Like, they just look at fantasy stats for the current season?

Sparhawk: For a big guy like Joey Wentz his FB velocity seems on the light side. Do you expect he’ll get the FB to mid 90’s consistently?
Keith Law: Velocity is great, but when you have deception and great extension you can do well at solid average. If Allard had that stuff, I’d feel better about him right now than I do.

Jeremy: Where would a healthy Anderson Espinoza rank? Surprised to not see him on there when guys who also missed 2017 due to injury are on the list.
Keith Law: Missed all of 2017, likely to miss most of 2018, never got above A-ball before injury or showed great performance. How many guys who missed 2017 are on the top 100? Reyes, but he was literally in the majors. Kaprielian was a lot more advanced as a pitcher than Espinoza. I think that’s it.

Nick: I don’t drink coffee, but I would like to try to start making/preparing high quality cups of coffee for my wife. Suggestions on where to start?
Keith Law: I’m a pour-over fan myself. I own this $16 Hario V60 dripper and use paper cone filters. And buy good coffee – just find a good local roaster. Tell me in the comments where you live and I’ll see if I know one.

Nic: Help me out?I am so conflicted.I think schilling is 100% a hof’er AND i think he is, and hispersonal views are, disgusting.What do i do?I want to advocate for him but i feel he doesnt derseve it because of his personal life.
Keith Law: HoF should be mostly if not completely about the player, not the person. And the political stuff was largely after his career anyway. I won’t argue against anyone who declines to vote for him, because he’s said some truly awful things, but I would vote for him myself.

Brian in Ahwatukee : Re AJ Puk- you mentioned him as a #2 but also a top LHP. What is the difference? I figure by rarity one a top LHP would be a 1.
Keith Law: He could still be a 1, but I would not say the top LHP in the minors is a future 1 by default. Has to earn it, so to speak, with stuff and command and feel.

Rick C: Sorry to hear that. I still think there’s a flaw in this ranking process, but I’m not going to personally attack you over it.
Keith Law: I’ll put it this way: If I had my druthers, I’d only do the offseason top 100s. I have an extensive process that produces results with which I am comfortable. They’re never perfect, and I could always have done something more, but I know they are well-researched and that I give solid evidence for every ranking decision. Nothing I do in-season can match that. I just don’t have the time when I’m also traveling to games, mixing in amateur stuff with the pro, and writing about major-league topics as they occur.

Kevin: Wow, this KLAW has been long and meaty today……….
Keith Law: I think you all deserved a long chat, since I had only done one in the previous five weeks, and gave you all this content earlier in the week that I know led to lots of questions. And I’m happy to answer them.
Keith Law: Thank you all for reading this week, for showing up here, and for making all of this possible with your support and readership. The org reports will start on Monday, farm rankings tomorrow, and I will try to chat somewhere next week (but perhaps not Thursday, as I have to go to Bristol that day). Twitter’s been a mess of HoF stuff, so if you have questions as we go, my Facebook page is going to be a better place to interact – just leave comments under the articles as I post the links each day. Thanks again!

My latest board game review for Paste covers Pandemic: Rising Tide, a standalone spinoff of the original Pandemic, this time pitting players against rising waters threatening to flood the Netherlands, so players must build dikes and pumps while trying to complete four hydraulic stations to win the game.

Keith Law: My mind’s diseased, even my vision is impaired … it must be Klawchat.

RyderGreen: What’s your take these days on Kyle Lewis? are you bullish on his ability to return and be something close to a GUY?
Keith Law: Bearish until we see him on the field for any consistent length of time. He was not 100% at all last summer or fall.

Roger: If you are the Astros, do you trade Tucker and Fisher and Moran for Gerrit Cole, or just wait for Whitley to make his way through the minors?
Keith Law: You could do both; given their depth, Tucker is the only one of those three I think they’d miss. But I wouldn’t give up Whitley at all. He’s in my top 10 overall prospects.

Devin: Do you think Duggar can handle Centerfield at AT&T, or should the Giants sign someone like Jarrod Dyson?
Keith Law: If they don’t want to sign Lorenzo Cain because of the draft pick, which I understand, sort of, then I’d give Duggar a shot. He’s a really good athlete with more than enough speed for center.

Marvin: If the Cubs sign Darvish would you still have Quintana as your #1 starter?
Keith Law: I think that’s more of an academic debate, but yes, I probably would.

Forrest Boy: Hey Keith, are scouts properly adjusting guys like Forrest Whitley and Walker Buehler’s rate stats? Their K and BB rates are tremendous, but they also never go through the order a 3rd time and average around 4 innings pitched, sometimes they have their pitch count capped. Knowing that, I’m sure their stuff plays up when they can go 100% on every pitch. What should be gathered from that when comparing those guys to Keller, McKenzie, and Kopech who are averaging around 5.5 IP or better while still maintaining good K/BB numbers?
Keith Law: Scouts aren’t adjusting the stats; scouts are scouting. I wouldn’t compare those two guys, either – Buehler’s older, coming off TJ, while Whitley is just 19 and being held back strictly for precautionary reasons. I also do not agree that a pitcher can go 100% on every pitch when facing 18 batters, which Whitley did 8 times last year.

Paul (San Francisco): Requesting your considered opinion on the respective ceilings and likelihood of reaching them for Giolito and L.Castillo. Thank you!
Keith Law: Giolito has top of the rotation potential, although given the performance the last two years and the trouble he had throwing his curveball with the major league baseball last year, I’d probably say more of a #2 starter. I’m expecting some regression from Castillo this year given his total lack of a breaking ball.

Jim: When do you plan to start rolling out the Org. Rankings, Top 100 and Team Top 10’s? Thanks!
Keith Law: January 22nd is the current start date for the package; it’ll roll out over two weeks this year, rather than three.

TR: If you are the White Sox, what do you with A Garcia? What could they reasonably expect to get for him? Appears to be a likely regression candidate.
Keith Law: Yes, he is, given his BABIP, and I would certainly shop him … but there are so many free agent corner guys this year that it may be the wrong time.

Josh: What were your favorite books you read in 2017?
Keith Law: In no particular order: The Fifth Season, The Erstwhile, Betaball, The Underground Railroad, Mister Monkey, Blackout/All Clear, The Last Days of Night, Not a Scientist, The Cooperstown Casebook, Everybody Lies, Lab Girl, Wise Children, Smoke, On Immunity, The Chimes, and Hi, Anxiety!

Jim: Is Gohara, Wright, Allard and Pache enough to get Yelich from the Marlins?
Keith Law: Heh. I’d say yeah, that’s more than enough.

Lucas: Besides Greene, do the Reds have any intriguing pitchers in their farm system that should give me hope that they could win the division in 2020? Or do you think they ultimately have to trade/sign an ace? Thanks
Keith Law: I think they can still hope for someone like Robert Stephenson to take that leap, but you are correct that other than Greene, who is still a long way off, they have a bunch of depth starters but nobody likely to post a 5-WAR season or show up on Cy Young ballots. Mahle’s their best upper-level pitching prospect and I think he has a very high probability of being at least an average starter, but almost no chance of being even a soft #1.

Chloe: Hi Keith. Big fan of your work. Do you think the A’s have the necessary high end prospects to warrant the top-5 farm system ranking that some analysts have bestowed on them?
Keith Law: No. I can’t imagine them in the top five.

Moe Mentum: Which phrase best describes Maikel Franco – “breakout candidate,” “change of scenery guy,” or “not as good at baseball as we thought”?
Keith Law: I’m not expecting a breakout, so one of the others. His pitch selection is why I was concerned about him as a prospect, and unfortunately, it hasn’t improved.

Moe Mentum: Ferris Bueller’s Day Off or Risky Business?
Keith Law: I don’t think I’ve ever seen Risky Business, so FBDO by default.

Nelson: If you were blindfolded and plopped down in the stands of a minor league stadium and given no context, just watching the gameplay would you be able to determine the level?
Keith Law: I doubt it unless I could extrapolate from the players’ apparent ages and sizes.

john wick: I’ve heard positive things about Logan Allen without much detail. What’s his realistic ceiling?
Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter.

Joseph G: Keith, I’ve missed these chats, hope you had a wonderful holiday. Does Luis Urias have an 80 hit tool? I’ve heard some prospect evaluators at least entertaining that grade.
Keith Law: That’s not accurate at all. Anyone tossing that around is more likely trying to get your attention.

Bruce: What are your thoughts on Braden Shipley? He struggled in a few brief call ups last season. Is he a future major league starter?
Keith Law: I would try him in relief in the short term to see if his velocity bounces back at all. His fastball has been down since maybe a year out of college, although his secondary stuff is still intact.

James: I’ve read a few professional prospect evaluators that have Fernando Tatis, Jr and Mackenzie Gore rated similar in their FV, with some placing Gore ahead Tatis, Jr. Is he a top 10 prospect for you? Or is the hype inflated at this point?
Keith Law: This is not the Bad Takes Klawchat. You want the room down the hall.

Dan: Are there any no-go zones in Pandemic: Rising Tide? Or is that just fake news?
Keith Law: (Uncomfortable silence).

Jon : Did you watch the TV Show Homicide: Life on the Streets? Wondering your thoughts compared to The Wire.
Keith Law: Loved it. At the time, I’d never seen anything like it. But Simon’s choice of themes and subjects works better when his dialogue mirrors the way people actually talk.

Robbie: Do you think the angels should splurge for Yu? I don’t think spending huge money on a starting pitcher with an injury history and on the wrong side of 30 is especially smart, but if it helps keep Mike around…
Keith Law: Mike isn’t going anywhere.

Jacos: If Russell or Baez have to be traded who do you trade?
Keith Law: I think Russell has upside remaining while Baez may be topped out, so I’d trade Baez.

Brian: What are your thoughts of Jake Burger? Can he stick at 3B?
Keith Law: Very hard contact but not a 3b.

Mark: You seem to be a fan of Top Chef and baking, but I never see you reference any Great British Bake Off. Are you not a fan of nice even bakes?
Keith Law: Never watched it. Haven’t even watched Top Chef this season.

Baddoo: What grade would you put on Akil Baddoo? Is he a 50 and does he have the chance to be something more? Are we looking at a top 100 prospect possibly?
Keith Law: I don’t put grades like that on prospects; people then focus too much on the single number (the anchoring effect) and not enough on the description. As for top 100, you’ll see in about two weeks.

Chris : How does Jay Bruce deal affect Lorenzo Cain market? What do you think he ends up getting years/$$?
Keith Law: I don’t think the signing of a bad defensive RF with platoon issues affects the market for a good defensive CF without them.

Max: I feel like you addressed this somewhere already (another chat?), but did you decide to take a pass on Top Chef this season due to the John Besh episode? It sounds like they were able to completely remove him, and it’s been a strong season IMO with a really fun group of chefs.
Keith Law: That was one reason – they balked at removing him, then reversed course. Then I heard they let that clown Logan Paul on the show. And given how lukewarm I felt on the last two seasons – Brooke’s victory march, and that guy I can’t even remember who made quite a few sexist comments along the way – I decided to pass.
Keith Law: And the time required for the writeups. Those took forever.

Bryce Harper: How bad is the Bruce deal? The terms seem okay but he doesn’t really fit and it feels like a Wilpons move.
Keith Law: It’s a bad fit and I think it ends up costing Dom Smith playing time. Alderson giving up this fast on Smith seems very un-Sandy-like.

Juan: How much weight do you put into Mateo’s showing at AA Midland and AA Trenton after a lackluster showing in A+? How much, if at all, did he raise his stock? Thanks!
Keith Law: I saw him in Trenton – he looked like a different player, playing harder, making better contact (although I still doubt the power). He gave himself some real value for the Yankees and just the right time.

jay_B: Keith, Buster had Bryant listed as his #4 3B. Curious if you would rank him there as well, or who you’d have in front of him?
Keith Law: I would have ranked him higher.

Dan: Is there a difference between the success Cody Reed (AZ) had in the low minors with average velo, but deception and control (and later struggles at high minors) and Cole Ragans?
Keith Law: Yes, quite a lot of difference.

Seth: Do you think the Rockies decision to give large contracts to their entire bullpen is going to hinder their chances of signing Arenado, Blackmon and/or Lemahieu long term? This seems like a risk considering the volatility of relievers and the ballpark they pitch in.
Keith Law: It might, depending on ownership’s willingness to spend, although I don’t think LeMahieu is someone they need to lock up long term – they can find a 1.5-2.0 win 2b, maybe in their own system.

Brandon: Hi klaw: (a) should the Rockies move Hoffman and/or Tapia; (b) do either/both have material trade value?
Keith Law: Tapia depends a bit on what they plan to do with Blackmon; I would try Hoffman in relief before I shipped him out. He is, however, a poor fit for pitching at altitude.

Cards: What should we make of Delvin Perez at this point?
Keith Law: Very little other than that he’s so young and underdeveloped physically that he still has time to recover.

Jshep12: You buyin’ Bitcoin?
Keith Law: I sold all my bitcoins to buy South Seas stock.

Sal: Brusdar Graterol — Twins think he has four pitches and plan to start him. Is this delaying his is inevitable bullpen career or are their SP beliefs warranted?
Keith Law: I’m not sure why you say that’s what the Twins think. I would continue to start him to see if the breaking ball and changeup continue to improve, as it’s probably an 80 fastball.

Craig: Is Royce Lewis growing on you? Who do you like more between him and Florial?
Keith Law: That’s not close for me. Even if I’m right that Lewis will move off shortstop, he’s a much better hitter than Florial.

JR: The only way the Jay Bruce signing makes sense is if they have some serious concerns about the extent of Conforto’s injury, right? The one spot they are set at is corner OFs, so to use their “limited” resources on a position that is already set makes no sense to me? I realize Conforto won’t be ready on opening day, but I’m sure between Nimmo/journeyman on a 1 year deal, they would’ve been OK in short term.
Keith Law: That could explain it. Or they figure Cespedes is going to miss a chunk of time again. Or they’re done with Smith and Nimmo.

DJoe: Cubs are without a top 100 prospect for the first time in a long time. Being uncharted territory for a cubs fan, is this normal after pieces have been traded for a championship level team, or are they in trouble?
Keith Law: Interesting that you say they’re without a top 100 prospect when I haven’t posted my top 100 (and expect there to be a Cub on it).

Quisenberry’s Sinker: What do Braves do with Surplus of MLB Ready Pitching Prospects once Allard, Soroka are MLB Ready. Do you see them up by July if AAA progress continues?
Keith Law: Someone will get hurt, someone will struggle in AAA … they have tremendous pitching depth, but the odds of them ending up with a surplus for the ML rotation are slim. And even then they could tandem-start two guys to limit innings totals for the season – neither Allard nor Soroka is a huge guy.

Mike: Eric Thames had a couple great months and a couple stinkers last year, and basically no period during which he hit like his overall season numbers. Do you think this year he’ll settle into the middle of that range or toward one of the extremes?
Keith Law: He was awful after April. I think the league figured out fairly quickly how to get him out.

Lyle: Is Eric Filia anything more than an org guy?
Keith Law: Yes. Maybe just an up and down type, but not an org guy.

Joe: Which pospect has the best hit tool in the minors currently? Urias? Hiura?
Keith Law: I think that list has to start with Acuna and Vlad Jr.

Frankelly: I personally think Heliot Ramos is getting way too much hype from his pro debut where people only see the results rather than the underlying struggles and issues. Is he a top 100 guy yet?
Keith Law: I would agree that he’s getting a bit overhyped because his superficial AZL stats were good, and because he’s the #1 prospect in their system.

Matt: I understand the need/want for Yelich in ATL but does it make sense to include more prospects for JT as well? Flowers and Kurt were sold last year and they have some decent prospects in the minors (Cumberland, Jackson, etc.)
Keith Law: I’d understand a prospect trade for Realmuto more than a trade for Yelich. Cumberland looks like a backup, Jackson’s catching wasn’t good in AFL, Herbert hasn’t developed.

addoeh: So A-Rod is now a popular broadcaster and Jeter is an unpopular owner. Wow, things can change quickly.
Keith Law: Life comes at you fast.

Stu J.: There are rumors the Reds will look to move Senzel to 2B (or OF or even SS) and leave Suarez at 3B. What would you do with the IF?
Keith Law: I would leave Senzel at third, because he’s made himself an above-average defender, and build around him. He’s their best prospect, probably a top 10 overall guy, and they should move other players to accommodate him.

ECinDC: Ever read Mason & Dixie by Pynchon? If so, thoughts? Thinking of putting it on the ‘to read’ list
Keith Law: Nope. Loved Inherent Vice, hated Gravity’s Rainbow, didn’t really get Lot 49.

Ed: The lack of dollars being spent on free agents is caused by: A) Teams being smarter / more frugal on what they spend their resources on, B) Teams not committing dollars this off season in preparation for next off season, C) Collusion
Keith Law: First one for sure. I have had agents suggest collusion, but no one has any evidence of that.

Evan White: What to make of this guy? Reports have a 70 on the glove but his bat doesn’t play at 1B. Would you move him to the outfield?
Keith Law: His bat doesn’t play at first?

Brian: How does Gabriel Arias project to you? Will he be the real Padres SS of the future instead of Tatis? Seems to be some buzz around him this offseason during his winter play.
Keith Law: He’s still just 17 and really hasn’t hit anywhere (even in Australia he has just a .310 OBP). I do like Arias’ long-term potential, but it’s entirely potential, and while he can stay at shortstop he’s not the best defender of that whole cluster of Latin American shortstops they have from low-A down.

Dr. Bob: I know you hate the giving of grades to off-season moves, but has any team impressed you with what they’ve done so far?
Keith Law: Not really. Has anyone done enough to warrant it? I feel like no.

HH: Keith, you’ve been one of the better voices speaking out against signing players found guilty of domestic violence. I’m curious where you’d draw the line on employing such people – I wouldn’t want to sign someone like Aroldis Chapman to my team, but I also wouldn’t want to hire him to run my Subway franchise. What happens if everyone felt this way? Economic death penalty, for lack of a better term?
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s really our problem, right? I would rather worry about the victims, who likely need significant financial, medical, and psychiatric assistance, than whether abusers can find jobs.

Brett: Is JP Crawford a better prospect than Scott Kingery at this point, or would you put Kingery about him?
Keith Law: Crawford is their top prospect.

Marshall MN: What do you make of the talk from experts about the so-called inevitability of the Red Sox signing Martinez? It seems odd to me, as there are other ways to address their lack of power without committing to a guy for 7 years.
Keith Law: I get the sense they won’t commit to him for 7 years, but would for 4.

Chris : Marcos Molina a bit of a sleeper this year in Mets system? Would like Mets to put him in bullpen as a multi-inning guy.
Keith Law: Always thought he had to go to the bullpen; his stuff ticked down after TJ, so that seems more inevitable than before.

Tyler: Assuming the Yankees get under the luxury tax this offseason, how aggressive do you think they will be with next years class? Do you think they will absorb the tax penalties to sign 2 mega stars?
Keith Law: They could also try to clear a bad contract or two to sign those 2 stars. That seems like the most likely outcome.

Kevin: What exactly are the Orioles doing? Slow moving for a team with three holes in their rotation.
Keith Law: Likely waiting for the second and third tiers of starters to sign, which means after the first tier signs.

Brett: Assuming a healthier 2018, where do you envision Juan Soto finishing the year? AA?
Keith Law: High-A. Barely played in low-A last year.

Don: I think Andujar will be respectable overall if he is given a fair chance, your opinion?
Keith Law: I do. The rare unheralded Yankees prospect.

Frank: Hey Keith, what are your thoughts on Allard? I’m confused why the industry seems to like him so much. Isn’t he just 88-91? What’s the realistic upside with him?
Keith Law: Some pretty good big league pitchers are “just 88-91,” and he has a knockout curveball.

Stanley: Rumors of a reboot of “The Office” are swirling, with many using the successful return of “Will & Grace” as inspiration. That show kept the same cast, whereas Michael Scott ain’t walking through that door. Do you agree that bringing the show back with supporting players from the first run and other new cast members is likely a mistake?
Keith Law: If they’re not reassembling the cast & the writers from a show’s peak, then a reboot is likely to fail.

Mike: Do you prefer Darvish or Arrietta for the same money/term?
Keith Law: Darvish.

Patty O’Furniture: Thoughts on Johan Camargo?
Keith Law: Utility infielder. Doesn’t have the bat to start.

Steve: Good afternoon Keith, I think I read somewhere you mentioned a family vacation to Aruba…What were your thoughts of the island?
Keith Law: Loved it. The fact that we could walk from our hotel into a little commercial area with shops, restaurants, and of course a Starbucks made it better and less costly (because we weren’t captives of hotel food).

Mark: You’ve said Johan Santana comes up short for you. Santana’s 2003-2010 peak of 1670 IP and 67 ERA- is pretty close to Koufax’s 1961-66 peak of 1632 IP and 63 ERA-. Koufax did more outside that, but was ultimately only a league average pitcher in his first six years. Is that really the difference between going in and not?
Keith Law: Yes. And Koufax is a bit of a special case, too; he doesn’t have a typical Hall career.

Jesus: Do people ever spam you with the same question in hopes that you’ll answer it? What do you do with those people/questions?
Keith Law: Yes. I usually ignore it; that’s not necessary for readers in this chat software and just makes my job harder.

Jake: Since you’re giving out spoilers (i.e., Whitley), is Tatis a top 10 guy?
Keith Law: That wasn’t a spoiler on Whitley – I’ve said it before – and I said in August Tatis was a top 10 prospect.

Paul: Is Ohtani eligible for your lists?
Keith Law: No. I exclude players with NPB and KBO experience; those are major leagues, regardless of MLB’s interest in holding down their salaries. However, if I have an AL ROY vote this year, I would absolutely consider Ohtani, since he’s eligible.

Mike: What’s your opinion on how cold the off season has been? Are teams avoiding long-term deals to not be handicapped by the next free agent season? Should Bob Mueller investigate if there is collusion among the teams?
Keith Law: I feel like he has bigger fish to fry. An orange huffy, specifically.

Dr. Bob: Some love to rail against “tanking” in the style of what Houston and Chicago did. I think this is mislabeled. Neither organization tried to purposely lose a bunch of games to get a top pick. Rather they traded big contract guys who were not going to help the team win to get assets. Maybe they lost 105 games instead of 95 because of that strategy, but it was sound. They should be more concerned about what Miami is doing–unloading good players to make more money.
Keith Law: Agreed. Houston and the Cubs had a strategy to improve in the long term by avoiding that 70-80 win purgatory, trading players who wouldn’t be there 4-5 years down the road for longer-term assets, then filling the gap with short-term signs and/or fringe guys from their own system to sort those players out and possibly flipping some of those guys for prospects too. Dallas Keuchel wasn’t a top prospect, and the kind of pitcher he is now is not reflective of what he was in the minors, but because the Astros were bad, they gave him a shot in the major-league rotation. Maybe he doesn’t get that chance if they’re trying to win a few extra meaningless games in 2014.

Chris: I’m a little weirded out by all the Oprah and The Rock for President stuff. Don’t we need to go back to someone who is actually, you know, qualified for the job?
Keith Law: Yes. And I was surprised how many people took my “Oprah/Portman 2020” joke seriously.

Dan: You were super high on Addison Russell when he was a prospect, why do you think he hasn’t “broken” out yet?
Keith Law: Some is pitch selection, some is the nagging shoulder injury that bothered him most of 2017.

Dr. Bob: What hasn’t Cain been signed yet. Surely there are more than a few teams who could use a guy who could potentially give you a few 5 WAR seasons, even if he is 31.
Keith Law: I think the draft pick is a big impediment; teams are more reluctant than ever to give up a top pick because it wrecks your bonus pool.

Harry: You mention Giolito’s issues “with the major league baseball” is that specifically last year’s juiced ball, or the MLB ball in general as compared to the minors?
Keith Law: The major league and minor league baseballs are different.

Alex: What is your approach for reading a cookbook like The Food Lab? Cover to cover, or reference page/topics as needed?
Keith Law: I look for recipes that interest me and try them. Cookbooks aren’t written to be read cover to cover, and a book of that length and scope is going to include stuff that doesn’t interest or apply to you.

Chris: Thoughts on the band Local Natives? I’ve never seen you mention one of their songs of albums.
Keith Law: Not a huge fan although “Happy Feet” made my top 100 a few years ago.

Brett: Is this as good as Taijuan Walker and Danny Salazar are going to be? Or do you think either will improve?
Keith Law: Both have untapped potential, Salazar needs to get healthy, Walker may just forever be inconsistent.

tvators: Don’t think it makes some sense for Mets to have plan B for injury to Smith or 2 month flop/return trip to AAA rather than just full time Flores/scrap heap Loney type??
Keith Law: A plan B doesn’t cost you 3 years and $39 million. And Smith has hit everywhere in the minors after slow starts at most levels. Assuming his 2017 major-league line – coming from Vegas to the majors – is predictive but his minor league performance isn’t is foolish.

Chris : Thought the Padres return for Solarte was a little light. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Disagree.

TR: As you look at draftees, what do you expect in terms of progress for a first round pick over the first 1-3 years? Pitcher vs position player? HS draftee vs college?
Keith Law: A college player in the first round should be able to start his first full year in high-A, and I’d expect a promotion to double-A before the year ends. A high school player in the first round might be ready for full-season ball, but I don’t assume that such a player who stays in extended and goes to an advanced short-season team is a bust; some high school players need more time, or aren’t ready for the Midwest League.

Larry: Does Alec Hansen profile as a starter for you? He was old for his leagues last year and I was told he loses his release point. He won’t get away with that against more advanced competition.
Keith Law: He does, and I don’t worry about age relative to level much for pitchers, especially not with his kind of stuff.

JJ: Your ESPN colleague Bradford Doolittle wrote that, if he were elected to the HOF, Trevor Hoffmann would immediately be the best reliever enshrined. Do you believe that’s true?
Keith Law: He would be incorrect. Hoyt Wilhelm is already in the Hall, with 19 more WAR than Hoffman and double Hoffman’s innings total.

Mike: just curious why you seem so sure Trout will stay with the Angels? Shouldn’t they be worried about the Phillies, Yankees or Dodgers offering insane money to him in a few years?
Keith Law: He’s under contract through 2020. Signing Darvish now isn’t going to do anything to sway his choice in 2021.

Jim : Would you start Hader of use him as a multi inning reliever? I think it’s a waste to have him as a 1 inning guy.
Keith Law: Reliever. Never bought into him as a starter due to arm action. Filthy stuff though.

DJ: Do you like Estrada as a good utility guy?
Keith Law: Thairo? That’s about right.

Doug: Chances of Alzolay developing an average changeup, and remaining a starter?
Keith Law: I do believe he’s a starter long term.

Brian: What do you think is the Padres logic regarding Hosmer interest? Do it hold water?
Keith Law: It makes no sense whatsoever. I wonder if this is a phantom offer to try to get the Royals to bid against themselves; it would be the worst possible move for the Padres right now.
Keith Law: I have to run to get back on the phone; I may not chat next week but will definitely chat on the 25th, by which point the entire top 100 should be posted, so maybe I should go start writing. Thanks as always for all of your questions.

Content: Insider posts on Maitan, Mikolas, and Minor; and on Castillo, Aledmys, and Boxberger. A look at the VR version of the Catan boardgame for Ars Technica. I should also have another boardgame review up for Paste shortly.

Keith Law: Freak what you heard. Klawchat.

Seth: What’s more drawn out, the Stanton sweepstakes or Kurt Vile’s last album?
Keith Law: I have never liked Vile’s work – mostly his singing style. But the Stanton thing is stupid: It’s all about him, and the team is pretending it isn’t.

Jay: As a Clevelander and a baseball fan, how do writers lose their HOF ballots. Asking for a friend…
Keith Law: The only time I know of a writer losing his ballot while eligible is Le Batard. They won’t revoke anyone’s ballot for sheer incompetence or the mere appearance of impropriety (e.g., voting out of spite, voting only for players the writer knows personally).

Jay: Have you see Murder on the Orient Express, any thoughts on how it matches to the book?
Keith Law: Haven’t seen it; I love Branagh, but the reviews have been tepid and the trailer makes his Poirot look so over the top, which isn’t true to the character. Poirot is a pompous little Belgian, but he’s not PT Barnum.

GS: Thoughts on players the Twins received in bonus pool trades? Think they handled the money well?
Keith Law: Meh.

Reese: Aaron Boone… leaves me scratching my head . Seems like great guy !! But no managerial experience.
Keith Law: I like Aaron personally and enjoyed working with him, but I have been pretty clear over the last ten years that I don’t think hiring a major-league manager with zero managerial experience at any level is a good idea, and the results of such hires have been very poor.

GS: Top Chef is back! Can’t wait for you recaps. Any cities you’d like them to go to in the future? Minneapolis would be fun…
Keith Law: I announced in my newsletter this week that I am not doing recaps this season.

Crazy Eddie: With the Tigers in a rebuild, would they listen to offers on Michael Fulmer? Any rumors that he is available?
Keith Law: There were rumors to that effect last summer but he ended the year on the DL and this is the wrong time to deal him.

Dog: Is this chat protected by attorney-client privilege?
Keith Law: Well, neither of us is an attorney, so that’s a yes.

Brian: Do you think AJ Preller has done enough to justify his 3 year extension? Do you think the Padres rebuilding plan is working under his leadership?
Keith Law: I do – I think the system is very, very strong.

Matt: O’s beat reporters keep mentioning the possibility of Hunter Harvey pitching in the majors next summer. That would be madness, right?
Keith Law: Yes. That sounds like someone in the org trying to push an idea on people above him.

Robbie: What do you think of the job Eppler has done for the Angels? He seems to really be making solid moves without mortgaging the future. The simmons trade has to be one of the most underrated in some time.
Keith Law: Simmons trade was great, the farm system is massively improved since he took over, and I like the way he’s added around the margins given how handcuffed he has been by the poor system he inherited and major financial commitments to just a few players.

RSO: How much can the Orioles expect to receive for 1 year of Manny Machado?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s going to be traded, but I would ask for two significant prospects. One year of Machado is huge value for a contender. Might add 5-6 wins, maybe more.

cnp: Would you ever consider running for public office?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t rule anything out – I’ve always believed in keeping all doors open. It’s better to have an opportunity come to you and then have the choice to decline than to never have the opportunity at all.

Jimmy: If you were a GM would you give $350 Mil to Harper or Machado?
Keith Law: Yes, either.

Guest: Any thoughts on Kazuo Ishiguro winning the Nobel Prize in Literature?
Keith Law: I’m a fan. Loved Remains of the Day and Never Let Me Go – both are top 100 all time novels for me.

Dave: What’s your gut feeling about Matt Olson? Potential franchise player, platoon guy that got hot, somewhere in between?
Keith Law: Below average regular is most likely outcome. Juiced ball may have helped him a lot.

Shaun: Love the things you post on. For your pour over coffee, do you use a gooseneck kettle, and/or is a standard kettle good enough to get by.
Keith Law: I use a regular kettle. The gooseneck thing is about 10% substance and 90% style for me.

Anthony: Which Braves prospects would be on your Do Not Trade list?
Keith Law: If the Angels called and offered Trout, but you had to trade Acuna, would you do it? I would. So I’d say none of them.

JP: Thoughts on Bitcoin?
Keith Law: It feels like every other bubble I’ve ever lived through or read about.

Steph: Happy Holidays klaw and thanks for the annual guides! I heard yesterday was the 1 year anniversary of the Chris Sale trade. 2 part question: how would you rate the White Sox transaction over this past year and what should be their goals for this offseason? Has Moncada taken a step backwards in his development or is he performing as expected?
Keith Law: Happy holidays to you as well. I think Hahn has done a great job overall in restocking the system, maximizing the value of most of his tradeable assets. I think the trade with the Yankees is the one least likely to work out. Moncada for me is the same player he was a year ago, same upside, same real concerns about his bat.

John: Why do people still get so upset with Hall of Fame ballots? The institution is meaningless at this point–it no longer honors the best players. It’s just nostalgia porn for old men.
Keith Law: The part that bothers me is that these writers with horrendous ballots, like Livingston, are assigned to cover the sport, yet show with their ballots that they don’t know the first thing about the sport. If you can’t realize that Chipper Jones is a Hall of Famer, then you shouldn’t be paid to cover baseball. There are lots of people out there who could do the job and also understand something about the sport.

JP: Giving up JBJ for Abreu would be a terrible deal for the Red Sox, right?
Keith Law: I think that’s an overpayment.

Randy: Thoughts on Joe McCarthy (Rays) after his solid 2017 at Double-A. Any chance he develops into a big league regular?
Keith Law: Yes, I’d agree with that. Potential first-rounder before a serious back injury killed his junior year at UVA, mostly because everyone believed he could hit. Now it seems that’s coming true. He was a tick old for AA, though, and obviously needs more power as a corner guy, but I think 15 HR is within the realm of possibility (before we discuss the MLB ball).

Joe: Do you have any thoughts about Johnny Depp as Grindelwald in the next Fantastic Beasts movie? Even if one can manage to put abuse allegations aside, it still seems like a miscast for the role.
Keith Law: Yes, totally miscast. What Depp does well – and I do think he’s a very good actor – is wrong for that role.

Nick: True or false: “It is better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer”
Keith Law: I’d say true.

Ben: Thoughts on Jerusalem decision? Seems like many advisors told Trump not to do it, but being the 5 year old that he is, he did it. It’s almost like he’s hoping to cause as much chaos anywhere and everywhere.
Keith Law: This administration has consistently pandered to the extremist Christian right. It fits the pattern.

BD in DC: Gerrit Cole for B. Goodwin, E Fedde, and L Garcia… who says no?
Keith Law: That’s a terrible deal for Pittsburgh.

Troy: Hey Keith – Thoughts on Monte Harrison? Is he for real if he can stay healthy?
Keith Law: I think he has a chance to be an above-average regular, with a fairly high bust probability still because of plate discipline/pitch recognition questions. I like the athleticism and hand strength.

Bobby Evans: I want to give up all or most of the top prospects in my already thin farm system for Stanton’s big contract. That’s not a bad idea, right?
Keith Law: It’s not a bad idea if you aren’t paying so much of the deal that you choke the franchise for the next decade. The discussed package of players isn’t my concern; they can float the losses of those guys.

Clay: Is Brazil turning into a legitimate baseball country? A handful have found their way to the bigs, at least a couple prospects (Gohara, Pardinho) are highly touted.
Keith Law: My limited knowledge of baseball in Brazil – boosted by that great multi-part series Pedro Moura did about it maybe a year ago – is that it’s popular where Japanese emigres settled, but unknown in other parts of the country.

Jesse B: Ohtani, Gore, Baez, and Quantrill to go with Myers, Hosmer, Margot and Tatis, is that enough to make the Padres relevant again?
Keith Law: The Padres signing Hosmer would be, by far, the dumbest fucking thing they could do.

Tyler: Thinking of quitting Facebook/Twitter as a New Year’s resolution. Any suggestions as to other time-killing websites that won’t sink me further into depression?
Keith Law: The dish? Wait, scratch that, those Saturday posts are pretty depressing.

Daniel: What fallout do you anticipate from Braves scandal? Will other organizations have to clean up the way they do things?
Keith Law: I believe the bundling practice will stop – it was definitely illegal, but the system encouraged teams to do it, and the argument was that the players still ended up getting paid so the harm was somewhat limited. But MLB has made it clear they’re done with looking the other way on much of that stuff.

Justin: Who is a better plan B for the Cardinals if/when Stanton opts for the west coast – Donaldson or Yelich?
Keith Law: Donaldson if the goal is win now, which I think it is. Yelich is the better long-term asset, but should cost you more in prospects.

Jake: If you’re the Cardinals, which young pitchers are you least willing to deal for a bat. Reyes and Hicks?
Keith Law: I’d trade any of them. Reyes is still coming back from TJ, and I said well before his injury I thought the short stride made him an injury risk (and made his breaking ball worse too), so there are enough knocks that I wouldn’t make him untouchable even though he has the best stuff of all their young arms.

Justin R: As someone who takes anxiety medication, do the studies that such medication increase risk of early-onset Alzheimer’s disease worry you? I stopped taking Celexa a few years back because of this but am thinking of jumping back in and wanted to weigh the risks.
Keith Law: The etiological connection between these drugs and eventual dementia is not well established, and the risk even in patients who start SSRIs before age 65 remains low, just higher than it is for those who never take them. You have to consider the benefit – do I want to live with anxiety, and the associated lower quality of life, to avoid this higher risk that is not completely understood? I’ve been on the medication, off, back on … yeah, I don’t think I want to live unmedicated. I was miserable and it affected people around me too.

Sterling Malory Chris Archer: What is it about Ohtani’s swing that you think he won’t be successful in MLB?
Keith Law: I answered that at length in my article about him: http://klaw.me/2khlBb0

Joe: Does Austin Hays have 60h 60p tools?
Keith Law: No.

Wally: If you were a GM, would you do more prospect challenge trades than we see generally? Mejia for Robles seems like one that might make sense, given the roster composition of CLE and WAS. Would that be fair, or would one side need to top it up a little?
Keith Law: Both top ten overall prospects, reasonable from a value sense, but Cleveland could also move Mejia to another position rather than trade him.

Steve: Your music playlists featurelots of obscure artists, maybe u hear them on sat radio, but What’s your music “wheelhouse”, if you can describe.
Keith Law: I do have Sirius XM but they tend to be late to bring new artists on air. I like music that’s interesting, that boasts something like strong melodies, intelligent lyrics, technical proficiency, new sounds or textures. I’ve listened to so much music in my life that I get a lot of “I’ve heard this before” feelings from mainstream radio.

Chris: Any idea why Ohtani and/or his agents would make 23 teams go through a useless exercise of filling out the dog and pony forms?
Keith Law: Maybe they had a purpose that didn’t make it useless. Maybe they didn’t want to show such disrespect to teams as to say “Ohtani is so unwilling to play for you that nothing you can say would change his mind.”

EC: For closers and the HOF, even if – and that is a big if – we wanted to put them in, don’t we have to wait until we have a larger crop to judge who were the best (Mariano excluded)? There seems to be an arguments that Hoffman is the second best, but there are some that seem obviously better (Nathan) or could be considerably more valuable by the end of their career (Kimbrel, Jansen). What’s the rush to get Hoffman in?
Keith Law: Every writer who lists Hoffman on his/her ballot is telling you that s/he still values saves, even though we know the stat is meaningless for discussing individual value. If Hoffman pitched exactly the same way, the same 1089 innings, the same 2.87 ERA, but had zero saves, this isn’t a discussion. He would have fallen off the ballot two years ago. He did less in his career than Brandon Webb, for crying out loud. But these voters will not let go of their precious saves, even as the teams they cover have made it very clear that they see no utility in the statistic.

Ted: Are you planning on updating your kitchen gifts and cookbook recommendations for this year? I have found them to be very helpful around the holidays the past few years?
Keith Law: The gift guide went up yesterday (http://klaw.me/2AwOlma) and the cookbook guide will go up after the chat.

Jason S: Have you had Philz coffee? If so, thoughts on it, have you had better?
Keith Law: I have had it. I’ve had a lot that’s better.

Andrew: Hi klaw, greetings from the UK, something of a baseball noob here and have adopted the Rays. My first season of regular viewing was last season. Was just wondering your general view on the strength (or otherwise) of their farm system..
Keith Law: I think it’s below the median, but I’ll do a detailed ranking & explanation in January when I post the prospect rankings package.

Jay: With Del Rosario, Negret, and possibly 5 1st round/comp A picks, do you think the Royals can turn around the farm system quickly?
Keith Law: I don’t. You might – I don’t want to infer too much here – be overrating the impact of the two former Atlanta prospects. I will say this: they probably need to approach this draft differently than the last few. Their recent emphasis on high school pitching hasn’t panned out so far, and with the extra picks and the money they bring, they can be more creative than they’ve been since the new system went into place.

Jack: How concerned should phillies fans be about mickey moniak? Should he start in low a again?
Keith Law: I’m pretty concerned. He looked like he’d never seen a slider before every time I saw him, and I believe the Phillies are considering moving him to a corner, having played him there in instructs too.

JC: Are there any long term internal options the Braves have at 3B? Let’s include college options to be drafted at #8 (assuming, of course, they are BPA while drafted). If not, should they sit out this year for external options in a potential buyers market?
Keith Law: I’m not a Riley fan, but he is their best 3b prospect and I know internally they rank him more highly than I do.

Chris: You talk a lot on these chats about abuse and assault from athletes and other entertainers (and thank you for that), especially how ridiculous it can be that people then target the victim as a liar. However, I wanted to know what your opinion was around rehabilitation and what needs to happen before you would accept those accused getting back into the spotlight.
Keith Law: Those people can certainly go through counseling, although its effect is far from certain (especially for those abusers who are themselves trauma victims). But we don’t have to let them be famous again. I don’t need to see Josh Lueke in a major league uniform again – there are plenty of guys who throw hard and have never raped a woman.

Eddy: I’m having trouble nailing down the HR and SB totals for Gleyber Torres in a typical season. What is a reasonable expectation? Seen everything from 15 HR to 25+ and single-digit SB to 20.
Keith Law: He’s not a runner. I could see 20+ homers, definitely, but if he steals 20 it’ll be on instincts rather than speed.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: I apologize if you have answered this before, but it is December so it is Hall of Fame season. Is Pete Rose a Hall of Famer? Not a Hall of Fame talent…a Hall of Famer.
Keith Law: I think he has to be, as much as it disgusts me. I can’t argue for any player who is a ‘known’ PED user under the argument that the Hall needs to show the best players, period, and then argue against Rose.

TJ: The common refrain around the Red Sox is that they need power, but wouldn’t a consistent hitter at 1B be just as valuable? So many times to break a game open they just need a base hit while Hanley would swing out of his shoes to hit the long ball. (anecdotal but still). Is there a point at which upgrading the power is being pursued too much to the detriment of a better offense?
Keith Law: They really do need power. They have plenty of guys who can hit. The lack of power sank the offense last year.

Chris : Any chance Mickey Jannis gets scooped up in Rule 5?
Keith Law: Doubt it.

Enquiring Mind: Better upside and/or chance of reaching it: Kingery or Bo Bichette? I’ll hang up and listen. Thanks as always for the chats.
Keith Law: Bichette better upside. Kingery is a big leaguer right now, though.

Jeff: Is the talent in this year’s Rule 5 better than normal, or are there just more recognizable names that haven’t panned out?
Keith Law: Couple of more recognizable names – Nick Burdi’s name has come up a few times, I think he’ll go off the board – but not necessarily better ones.

Luke: Should we all just quit caring about the Hall? I fail to understand how Vizquel is getting so much support while Edmonds got booted off the ballot in his first year, Edgar and Walker can’t get elected, the roiders sit on the ballot every year taking up votes and keeping deserving players out…nothing about it makes sense. And then there are writers like Livingston that you commented about on Twitter today that make a mockery of the whole process. Rant over. I guess my question is how do they fix the process for election?
Keith Law: The electorate for the Hall will change more slowly than the electorate for postseason awards, because the former includes a lot of people who haven’t covered the game for 5+ years, and a lot of people who still cover it but haven’t bothered to keep up with the seismic shifts in how baseball players are valued by the industry itself. But it will change.

Evan: Atkins said that they are going to exhaust Connor Greene as a SP “until he has no choice.” (Smart decision.) Do you think Greene is destined for the bullpen, and if so, could he be a top end high-leverage RP?
Keith Law: I would still try him out as a starter. I don’t think it’s foreordained that he’s a reliever.

Evan: I heard a rumor the Braves are trying to open up a corner OF spot for Acuna this season. If he plays the bulk of the year in the majors, what type of production do you think he would have?
Keith Law: I can’t imagine he’s there Opening Day, for service time reasons; that would be silly. But I’d release Matt Kemp for him, definitely. Think he’d hit .280-.290, low .300s OBP, 30+ steals … I want to say 10-12 homers, but the juiced ball has really thrown me off the last year or two. He hit 21 across A+-AA-AAA last year with the minor league ball, so is it absurd to say he could really hit 20 homers if you gave him 600 PA in the majors?

Brian: Not a question, but fwiw, my grievance with insane HoF ballots is exactly the same as yours. In fact, I’ve noticed this is usually what makes me upset about things in general: when people are in charge of things for no reason, and yet it is very hard to do anything about it …
Keith Law: It feels like you’re talking about something more than just sports here.

Dan: Heliot Ramos appeared to have a good debut this summer, but have you heard anything from scouts (or scouted yourself) to change your pre-draft opinion of him? Is there star upside there? Or more average regular?
Keith Law: Nothing new, just a great debut, which I don’t read a ton into other than that he didn’t fail right away, which worries the hell out of me when a player does that in his first pro (wood bat) experience. Some guys get around it – Nolan Jones was much better in 2017 than in his debut – but most don’t.

Tom: I believe on Twitter (or maybe it was a chat) that you said if the SF Giants took on all of Stanton’s contract, it would cripple the franchise. But earlier in this chat, you said you’d give $350m to Machado or Harper. Does it have to do more with the players receiving the contract, or what teams are positioned to hand out a contract of that size?
Keith Law: I don’t recall saying that, but I’d be way more comfortable giving that money to Harper or Machado, who are three years younger than Stanton; both better, higher-impact players, with more defensive value; and don’t have Stanton’s injury history.

James: Any inkling of where you think Otani will land?
Keith Law: Nope. I haven’t even asked anyone about it. It’s all BS until he signs, and then it matters.

Steve: I know you’ll probably have a write-up on it but what are you’re initial thoughts on Chatwood to the Cubs?
Keith Law: That’s WAY more money than I thought he’d get. I had him as a potential bargain (heh) because getting him out of Denver might help him rediscover his curveball.

Pat D: Franken and Conyers are rightfully resigning. Yet there sit Roy Moore and Donald Trump with people like Janet Porter getting airtime to defend them. At what point is it right to give up faith in the people of this country to do the right thing?
Keith Law: Oh, I passed that point a long time ago.

Tim: any truth to the rumors that ESPN is hiring Ohtani as your scouting intern because it represents a pay raise for Ohtani over what he will receive in this absolute garbage MLB international system?
Keith Law: It’s really cool that they all negotiated to raise the amount Ohtani’s team would get without regard to what the player himself – the one fans are paying to come to see – will get.

RSO: I know the Astros won the World Series last year, but how good does the Brian McCann trade look for them right now with Abreu, and Guzman both doing very well? Both have risen into the top 10 in their system according to some publications
Keith Law: I think the Astros are very happy with it.

Dutch: Lucroy should bounce back in 2018, no? IIRC he hit .300 with an OBP over .400 once he got out of Texas. Would imagine that Coors played a role in that 2nd half improvement too.
Keith Law: I think he’ll be better this year – no real reason to believe he just forgot how to hit and frame, or was somehow physically incapable of doing so.

Mike: Do you think it’s finally the year where a HS RHP goes 1-1?
Keith Law: I do not. I don’t see who that guy would be.

Dutch: Moving Myers back to the outfield would be incredibly stupid, no? Seems like Preller and San Diego have forgotten why they moved him to 1B.
Keith Law: Incredibly stupid.

Tony: Do you still write for ESPN or is all your work behind a paywall?
Keith Law: I’m having a hard time with the structure of this question.

Dennis: My project for 2018 is to read Don Quixote or Ulysses. Which do you recommend? Which will take longer to read?
Keith Law: Read Don Quixote. It’s just long. Ulysses is complicated, and it’s really not a book to be read like a novel.

Dennis: Do you like Henry James? If so, any recommendations?
Keith Law: I only liked Portrait of a Lady.

Charlie: Curious about your thoughts on the Martinez hire. Bench coach for a decade worthwhile preparation for the role, or just another flavor of “no managerial experience”? Do you see a distinction?
Keith Law: I would at least distinguish him from someone without any coaching experience. I have heard mixed things on Martinez over the years, but enough people whom I trust seem to like or recommend him that I want to give him the benefit of the doubt going into year one.

Dennis: Any interest in reading The Tale Of Genji?
Keith Law: I got 100 pages into it and bailed. Too slow. I’m not a huge poetry reader either, which didn’t help.

Tony: Given the numbers Cesar Hernandez has put up the past three years, how much better can the Phillies expect Kingery to be compared to that baseline? It seems like they have similar skillsets
Keith Law: Kingery’s a 70 defender at 2b with much more power, but I don’t think he’s going to post a .373 OBP any time soon. Makes Hernandez tradeable, but not necessarily someone who has to be traded today to make room because Kingery would be markedly better in 2018 (it could be a push now, Kingery better in the future due to power).

Chris: MLB.com just ranked Singer as their #1 draft prospect, but I know you’ve said he has reliever written all over him going forward. In your mind, what percentage chance does he have to stick as a starter?
Keith Law: Maybe 25%? I don’t think I’m doing a draft ranking until February now, but he won’t be top ten. Arm slot and action worry me. Dude was 90-91 the night I saw him face Kyle Wright.

Nelson: Whats a reasonable price to pay for 12oz bag of top notch coffee beans?
Keith Law: That’s going to run you $13-16, most likely.

Chuck: Do you expect Puk to be up in ’18?
Keith Law: Yes, before year-end.

Dennis: How do you carve out the time to read each day? I’m guessing you always have a book with you and you avoid internet browsing and social media.
Keith Law: I dedicate certain time to it in the morning, and I sit with my daughter every evening I’m home because she has to do 30 minutes of reading a night for homework.

Oden: No longer a prospect, but door you think Devers sticks at 3rd? Should Boston sign say Moose, move Devers across field?
Keith Law: Yes, he’s a 3b, chance to be a good one.

Adam Doctolero: If Hankins is there for the Giants at #2, he’s has to be the pick, right? Who else would you say is in that mix for a top-2 pick?
Keith Law: No I don’t think he has to be the pick at 2. He’s very good, but I wouldn’t separate him right away from the pack. Heck, Rocker is a different type of pitcher, but he could be above Hankins on some boards, and I haven’t even left Georgia yet.

Henry: Check out the new Noel Gallagher LP. It’s very good!
Keith Law: I have, but it didn’t hold my attention at all. Liam’s isn’t really setting the world on fire either. They’re better together, obviously.

John: Hot take: Billy Wagner is more deserving of the Hall of Fame than Trevor Hoffman. Better pitcher, shorter career. The only reason Wagner isn’t getting the support is that he retired at 39 and didn’t compile another 100+ saves like Hoffman did. (Neither are actually deserving, by the way…Wagner’s just closer)
Keith Law: I agree. Wagner was better than Hoffman when they actually pitched. I wouldn’t put either on my ballot.

Jim Nantz: Are the relatively low salaries paid to managers (I saw that Callaway won’t even clear $1M this year) a sign that teams don’t believe managers add much value?
Keith Law: I think that’s fair to assume.

Chris: You wisely are more bearish on Ohtani’s ability to be an impact player as both a pitcher and a hitter. Do you see a player ever filling both of those roles with the specialization of today’s game given how difficult it is to be a true two-way player?
Keith Law: I don’t. The hype around him has been ridiculous.

Andy: Don’t most teams rate their prospects more highly than you? I mean that even if they take an even handed approach, most teams are going to focus on positives of their guys, while minimizing the negatives.
Keith Law: Your job as a GM or farm director or VP is to try to evaluate your players objectively so you can make better decisions around trades, promotions, and adjustments. So if a team rates all or most of its prospects more highly than I do, then they’re probably doing themselves a disservice.

JJ: A writer for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch shared his HOF ballot. He voted for Clemens but not Bonds, for obvious (?) reasons. He also declined to vote for Chipper Jones, citing Joe Morgan’s plea for character to matter, specifically Jones’ “Sandy Hook was a hoax” tweet. Should Jones’ post-playing career dumbassery have any impact on his HOF candidacy?
Keith Law: If you read the one sentence in the voting guidelines, it seems fairly clear that we’re discussing character while a player. I think hoaxers should all be sent to live on the surface of Venus, but this was a single comment that he walked back fairly quickly. If you’re downgrading him for “character,” the lengthy extramarital affair he had while in the peak of his career should weigh more than a single post-career tweet. (If you want to argue none of this should matter, I’m fine with that too.)

Doug: You have a take on the John Oliver/Dustin Hoffman incident? Big fan of Oliver but it seemed a tad extreme in his part.
Keith Law: It is exactly what we needed, and I hope more people take a cue from Oliver and call the accused out in public when they’re getting a free pass.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions. Because of my travel schedule around the winter meetings next week, the next chat will probably be on December 21st (or thereabouts). Have a great weekend.

My latest boardgame review for Paste covers the mid-weight train game Whistle Stop, which is one of my favorite new games of 2017.

Keith Law: A loaf of bread, a quart of milk, a stick of butter, and Klawchat.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Can you do something to at least warm up this Ice Cold Stove season?
Keith Law: One agent speculated to me that teams were waiting till December 1st to try to cool off prices for early signings. I have no idea if that’s true, but I’m at least hoping that tomorrow we’ll see something.

Drew: What would you rather, vote for Curt Schilling into the HOF or eat an entire Fruit Cake
Keith Law: I’d vote for Schilling, although I think at the moment he might not make my top 10 (it’s at least debatable). There are maybe 15 guys on the ballot I’d put in, so I’ve had to leave candidates toward the bottom of the list off – I’ve said, for example, that because Manny Ramirez failed two PED tests, I wouldn’t put him in my top 10 right now. If the logjam is ever cleared, he’d eventually get on the ballot.

Lilith: Taylor Trammell or Jesus Sanchez? Who do you prefer and why?
Keith Law: Trammell’s the better all-around player. Sanchez has more hit tool, which of course is the one that trumps them all, but I think I’d rather gamble on Trammell’s total upside.

Kevin: Learn anything new from your Thanksgiving cooking this year? Loved the periscope chat btw, first time I’ve logged on for that.
Keith Law: I went mostly with dishes I’d made before. Smaller gathering this year, and I just wasn’t up for my usual extravaganza.

Jim: Hi Keith, I’ve seen you talk in the past about Ohtani not being a major league regular level hitter, but I’m wondering what specifically is the issue. Is it the hit tool? Or is the power not what it appears to be?
Keith Law: It’s the very long swing and poor contact rates. Then he’s going to come here and play 40% of the time, or less. People who think he’s going to be a legit two-way player are wishcasting, or just pushing clickbait.

Jerome: What do you think of the Dbacks trade for Boxberger?
Keith Law: Fine reliever. Taylor’s a prospect, though, no-brainer for the Rays for two years of control.

Kevin: Do you expect Michael Baez to appear in your Top 100 next year?
Keith Law: I haven’t done any sort of preliminary rankings yet.

Paul: Does Baez have more upside than Gore at this point?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

leisurefriar: Where is Ohtani going to end up?
Keith Law: I have no idea. Really, no idea at all. When it happens, we’ll discuss it, but I have only asked people what they think of him as a player, not where they think he’ll land.

Daniel: Do you see Chance Adams or Justus Sheffield making the majors in 2018? Could you provide some detail if yes.
Keith Law: Adams finished in AAA; there is no doubt he’ll see the majors this year if he’s healthy at all. Sheffield is the better prospect by quite a bit, though, and if they need a real starter, he’s the one to recall.

Chris: Your thoughts on collecting baseball cards and other baseball memorabilia? Also, do you have any special pieces of memorabilia from your career working in baseball?
Keith Law: Haven’t collected cards when I was a kid. Not a memorabilia guy at all.

derek: If the Giants trade for Stanton, what’s a realistic return for the Marlins? And as a Giants fan, should I be terrified?
Keith Law: One rumor had the Giants taking the entire contract. That should terrify you. It could hamstring their team for a decade.

CJ: Is there any reason a team shouldn’t do it’s due diligence on Ohtani, filling out the questionnaire, etc.?
Keith Law: No reason, but I know several teams have chosen not to participate.

Alex P: Hey Keith, thanks for the chat. How far do you see the Phillies form being a playoff team? And how would you balance their spending on FA’s vs allowing for development?
Keith Law: Two to three years. They should definitely be targeting FA this winter – and Ohtani, while a longshot since they’re NL, would be a perfect fit. They have nothing like him (as a pitcher) in the system, and he’s the same age as much of their roster anyway.

Dutch: Ketel Marte’s mini-breakout last year legitimate? Had great ABs in the playoffs. Kinda backed up his strong walk and K rates.
Keith Law: I’m in.

Mike Fichera: Is Dom Smith better on defense and with the bat than he’s shown? weight concerns aside.
Keith Law: Yes. Tiny sample. Obviously needs to maintain conditioning.

Sam: Some of the stove being so cold has to be because teams are waiting to see on Otani, right?
Keith Law: MLB sources indicated to me that they don’t believe that is true.

Josh in DC: I read something about Matt Lauer’s last contract renewal — that he cashed in on the fact that viewers of morning shows don’t like change. Is there any reason to believe that *sports* fans are more interested in watching the same guys year after year, that (separate from winning and losing) attendance and TV ratings might be correlated with roster continuity?
Keith Law: It’s been a while since I saw fresh research on this, but my understanding is that attendance, ratings, and revenues correlate with winning, often with a one-year lag, and nothing else.

Mike: Seeing a lot of talk on twitter about Ohtani’s speed. Some people are saying it’s somewhere between 70-80. How insane would that be for a pitcher or even a DH?
Keith Law: I had some idiots – and I mean that in the not-nicest possible way – saying it was wrong, or impossible, on Twitter last night. Multiple scouts have told me they personally clocked him under 4 seconds, one under 3.9 and the rest just above that, and that includes a time in August when he was, in theory, hobbled by the ankle/quad and still got down the line in under 4. He’s an 80 runner. Anyone who tells you otherwise should be dismissed.

Tyler: If you’re Alex Anthopoulos, do you make a splashy trade or signing this offseason to get the focus back on the team instead of the cheating scandal?
Keith Law: That’s a really terrible way to run a team.

Fred: What advice would you give to a mid 30s person looking into changing professions and starting from scratch?
Keith Law: Acquire a critical skill that should directly lead to employment.

Ricky H. : Ronnie Dawson had a big 2nd half in the Astros system. Back on track as a future regular?
Keith Law: Was he ever on track to be a regular? He was too old for low-A and spent the whole year there save 13 games.

Andy: Do you see the White Sox ultimately trading Jose Abreu this offseason? Your opinion on what teams are the best fit/have the pieces to make sense for the White Sox?
Keith Law: They should but the market might be thin, given all the 1b/dh types in free agency & also in the trade market.

Chuck: Would you vote for Edgar if you had a ballot?
Keith Law: I tweeted this on November 20th: “I don’t get one till next winter, but if I had a vote: Mussina, Bonds, Clemens, Vlad, Edgar, Chipper, Thome, Rolen, Schilling, Walker.”

Anthony: I recall you saying you had family (parents perhaps?) that lived in the ashburn va area…having just moved to ashburn, do you know of any good restaurants or food spots in the area? it doesnt seem like a big foodie town.
Keith Law: Voltaggio’s new place at One Loudoun is supposed to be pretty good – i went when it was Family Meal, but he’s since switched the concept. Also some good spots in Leesburg, including King Street Coffee & Doner Bistro.

Dutch: I can’t figure out for the life of me why Daniels would rather let Profar rot on the bench or in the minors than cash him in. They have to trade him right?
Keith Law: They might not be getting reasonable offers.

Jock: As a long time A’s fan, I remain somewhat puzzled by their selection of Austin Beck in that he seems the opposite of the kind of player that they usually target in the 1st round. What do you think of him as a player and do you see his selection as a sign that the A’s are shifting to an emphasis on more athletic/higher upside players. Thanks!
Keith Law: They are never getting a player like Beck – huge tools, athleticism, raw but with star upside – in free agency, and even in trade that’s hard to get. You have to have something huge to deal, and right now I don’t think they have anyone who’d get a return like him, or like a Gleyber or an Eloy or a Sheffield/Frazier package. So shooting for the moon made sense, even with the huge risk; I might not have done it because Beck’s hit tool really concerned me, but that’s strictly a subjective matter.

Zo: How important is having managerial experience. Do you think Boone or Beltran would hurt the yankees in the short run?
Keith Law: MLB managers without any managerial experience at any level have fared very poorly as a group. It’s a bad strategy, and we all know it, and teams keep doing it anyway.

Willie G: Rangers fans are growing impatient with Nomar Mazara, who has been below average the past two years and has seemed to have stagnated. Is he someone you think can be a core piece for a team going forward, or is his long-term role as a platoon or role player?
Keith Law: This is truly an ex post criticism, but I wonder now if promoting him so quickly in 2016 has hurt his development at the plate. Now the situation reminds me of Jose Guillen, who went pretty much from A-ball to the majors, and ended up a fine player, but never developed his approach at all and didn’t reach his ceiling. Again, I didn’t say so at the time, so this is strictly hindsight.

Josh in DC: I’m sure you’ve answered this before, but what you would do with Ohtani (if he actually can hit and pitch at a very level, that is)? How much would you worry about the injury risks from various baseball activities?
Keith Law: I have a long column on him running on Saturday. He’s a starting pitcher who can swing it a little. He is not going to be a starting pitcher and a regular position player on his days “off.”

Patty O’Furniture: Would a Matt Adams for Mike Fiers deal make sense?
Keith Law: I think Atlanta has plenty of guys who can deliver what Fiers would deliver but for the minimum salary.

Dutch: Fair to say Snell has #2 upside? FB and CB look sick. Even saw him get some whiffs on his changeup.
Keith Law: Yes, that’s fair.

Matt: Now that Tillerson and his surprising competence looks to be on the way out, are we in for a very long 11 months until change can actually be voted in?
Keith Law: It’s kind of appalling how mercurial these cabinet decisions have been. Pruitt’s reign of error might be the worst of all, with many Republicans weighing in on how disastrous his decisions have been, but if they won’t vote Democrat or just stay home, it’s not going to change until 2018 or more likely 2020.

Daniel: Will Mike Mussina make the Hall of Fame?
Keith Law: Eventually yes. Not this year.

Stan: Albertos or De la Cruz? (Or neither…)
Keith Law: Albertos. Alzolay is their best pitching prospect. De la Cruz has no track record of health.

Henry: Is this the year Xander Bogaerts hits 30 homers?
Keith Law: Let’s get his hands healthy again and say 20 homers.

Sam: One of the interesting points from Rany Jazayerli’s piece on the Bill James/WAR debacle was about how FIP fails to capture that some pitchers are worse out of the stretch, making hit clustering more a function of skill rather than luck. Is there any truth to that?
Keith Law: Most pitchers are slightly worse out of the stretch. Pitchers who are drastically worse out of the stretch tend to be either relievers or 4A guys. If you can’t pitch with men on base, it’s a tough road. So while FIP-based WAR does have issues, that’s not a significant one.

Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Jim Bowden said Ohtani is going to hit .300 with 30 HRs and win 15 games…
Keith Law: Yeah.

Jim: Kind of amazing that the Braves made out with AA here. What do you think he’ll do as first order of business there? He keeps saying the defense is his biggest concern and that seems to me that Kemp AND Markakis are goners.
Keith Law: I think he’ll focus on using the prospect inventory – still good, just not what it was, not #1 overall any more – to upgrade the major league roster. He’s of the mindset that you keep the absolute best prospects and trade the rest. That’s what they need now anyway. That could mean a top-line starter, a good corner outfielder (or two), or a real third baseman.

Ukulele Sue: Elvis Andrus is due $58M over four years after 2018. Yes, he’s had two good years in a row, but wouldn’t it be a mistake for him to opt out after 2018 and try to get more money, given how loaded the free agent class will be?
Keith Law: FA class will be loaded, but not loaded with shortstops. I think he’d be smart to opt out.

James: How close are Santana and A. Jones to getting your vote? Do you think they’ll at least hang around for a couple of years?
Keith Law: No on Johan. Andruw is probably a no, but near the border for me. Guy was basically finished at 30, and if you consider character at all, he loses a lot of points there too.

Bob: Matt Carpenter is a way better hitter than Eric Hosmer, right?
Keith Law: Yes.

Ben: I sous vide a brisket for Thanksgiving using Kenji Lopez’s recipe. Wow, was it good.
Keith Law: Sous vide is a game-changer. I didn’t use it this holiday, but that was mostly because I didn’t cook meat besides the turkey itself, which I spatchcocked and roasted.

Jim Nantz: Quick thoughts on the Doug Fister signing?
Keith Law: Yawn.

Arnold: Juiced baseballs aside, is MLB concerned about hgh? Versions now get out of your system in 72 hours. Take it after a Thursday night, clean by Monday…
Keith Law: Available research found no benefit to using HGH in men under age 50. It’s not magic.

RSO: Manny Machado for Gleyber Torres who says no?
Keith Law: I’m assuming the Orioles would, but that’s actually not a bad deal for them. Six years of a plus regular at short for one year of Machado? You ask for more, but it’s not a crazy deal.
Keith Law: Assuming Gleyber’s elbow is fine, and it should be.

Chris J: Any new (to you) boardgames you discovered and enjoyed at PAX Unplugged?
Keith Law: Majesty, Istanbul dice game, Ticket to Ride France, Ex Libris (review coming), Evolution app/video game, Seikatsu.

Jshep12: Is it Ohtani or Otani or O’tani?
Keith Law: Ohtani.

Jeff: Do you see the things Matt Lauer and Charlie Rose were accused of happening at ESPN?
Keith Law: We are prohibited from discussing internal company matters. I say this all the time, and people still ask.

Birddog: Highest probability of success: Chance Sisco, Austin Hays or Anthony Satander?
Keith Law: Sisco. Big positional advantage.

PHM: Better bat: Bregman or Devers? Thanks!
Keith Law: Hit only? Bregman.

Rahn: Presented for your comment: Huntington said last night the Pirates are hoping to show Otani that the team is a great option for him.
Keith Law: Good for them. Won’t happen, but still, good for them.

Raphael: Legitimate question: is it really so wrong to disqualify known PED users from the HOF (either by positive tests or other evidence like the Biogenesis case)? The media and generic public may exaggerate the effects of them, but they’re strictly against the rules and have a known profound effect on being able to recover from injuries and work outs quicker. (Though I’m definitely not advocating the amphetamines users be treated any differently, just that I don’t get the outrage over disqualifying known rule breakers)
Keith Law: So take Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle, and Babe Ruth out. Also, amphetamines are PEDs. Saying otherwise is a false dichotomy.

Jackie: What went wrong with Mark Appel? Is he still salvageable?
Keith Law: Finished the year hurt. Hasn’t been the same since the half-year in Lancaster and changes Houston made to speed him up to the plate. There’s a causation question – did delivery changes wreck his command? lead to injury? or all separate? – but those are factors.

Brian: Trade: Padres trade Hand, Quantrill, Arias, De Los Santos To NYY for Gleybar. Who says no?
Keith Law: Yankee fan, eh?

Joe: Made no sense to protect Loaisiga, right? Only chance he has to make the majors is as a reliever now since he will run out of options if he continues to develop as a starter.
Keith Law: He would have been taken.

Chris: Am I insane to argue that categorizing pitchers as “closers” is ridiculous? People treat a pitcher that “closes” a game almost as a separate position, and teams not only sign players accordingly, but play them as such. If you’re the best pitcher coming out of the bullpen, you should be pitching in the highest-leveraged situations regardless of inning. It’s what a little-league coach does, so why should MLB be any different? I hear this non-stop in Chicago about replacing Wade Davis as a “closer” and it drives me crazy. [end of rant]
Keith Law: Relievers are just failed starters. I know that sounds harsh, but it’s true: If you can throw even 150 major-league average innings, you’re going to start. You can have a hierarchy in your bullpen, but this elevation of the Proven Closer is how we end up with stupidity like Trevor Hoffman’s 28 WAR likely entering the Hall of Fame.

JPro06: When is/are you doing your top prospect lists next? End of the year or just before the season next year?
Keith Law: Late January. Same every year.

Rob: Do you think Robert Stephenson could stick in the Reds rotation this year and be successful? You were one of the first writers to say that he was a bullpen guy.
Keith Law: Don’t think I said that. Has three pitches to start, longtime trouble with command/control.

Giants Fan: How much credence do you give to the theory that stitching on the balls made WS pitching so ineffective?
Keith Law: Don’t believe it. The balls were not manufactured separately for the World Series (or the playoffs).

John: Why are voters and fans so eager to get behind closers for the HOF, but are so reluctant to get behind DHs? Someone like Edgar provides almost 100% of the value of a HOF position player, but Hoffman provides 50% of the value of a fringe HOF starting pitcher.
Keith Law: Because SAVEZ.

Chris: grimes vs. chvrches? who do you draft first?
Keith Law: Grimes has more upside. CHVRCHES higher floor. I’ll take Grimes.

Wally: It feels to me that the players, while paid well on a societal scale, don’t get enough of the total revenue pie in MLB. Do you think that’s right, and if yes and you had the ability to run the MLBPA, what would you do to address it?
Keith Law: Push for higher minimum salary, fight for protections for players from service-time manipulation to delay free agency or arbitration.

Andy: Where do you stand on the Bill James WAR argument about taking actual wins into account? I’m worried that it goes down a GWRBI rabbit hole pretty quickly.
Keith Law: That’s a hard no for me. Win Shares are dead. Leave them in the ground.

EL: Can Jose Miguel Fernandez help a team? I was surprised the Dodgers released him.
Keith Law: It was put him on the 40-man or release him. He should get a solid deal somewhere, probably a major league contract from somebody. Just no room on LAD’s roster, I guess.

Josh L: How hard will it be for the Braves to move Matt Kemp? Similar to the Upton/Kimbrel move a few years back? Does he have any value in the NL any longer?
Keith Law: Kemp has no value, period. I would release him.

Rob: Would you trade Raisel Iglesias if you were running the Reds at this stage of the rebuild? He should be able to net a nice return but they do not have many good bullpen options.
Keith Law: Yes. Unnecessary for rebuilding team to have a good ‘closer.’

Chris: Do I need to spend $1000 on a new, super-automatic espresso machine? i’m ok at the $500 mark, but I don’t want to sacrifice too much in taste or other things (ease of use, cleaning, etc.). It’s just for 2 people too.
Keith Law: I would not, and I love espresso and the machine I own.

Scott: What do you suggest to get away from the depressing crush of the news cycle? I enjoy using Twitter, but it also gives a lot of anxiety.
Keith Law: Get out of the house. Seriously – it’s easier to ignore the world, especially the online world, if you’re out doing stuff.

Drew: As the son of a lifelong foreign service officer, I can tell you that Tillerson has been far from competent. The State Department is in the worst shape I’ve seen it in 35 years, and officers current and retired are despondent with what Tillerson and Trump have done.
Keith Law: Thanks. So State is just like every other department, then. Yay us. Oh, and we’ve alienated most of our strongest allies, including the UK just this week over some retweets of fake news.

Marc: Will Xander’s lack of exit velocity mean he won’t get to 20 HRs?
Keith Law: This is exit velocity obsession. If your hands are injured, your exit velocity will be down.

Eric: Mussina not in the hall is my go to complaint about hall voters? is there another player that deserves or deserved enshrinement that voters didn’t get behind?
Keith Law: He is the best non-Bonds/Clemens player on the ballot. And those two guys have their baggage; he doesn’t.

Jason: Re: Ohteni, what if he insisted on being given 300 PA as a DH or position player? Even though you might not want to use him as a two-way player, he may still choose his team based on that criteria.
Keith Law: Are you willing to lie? Tell him he’ll get 500 AB, then change your mind in March? Such agreements are unenforceable.

Rahn: GM hat time: Should the Pirates deal Cole and/or McCutchen before the season begins to maximize value and recognize they’re in a phase of rebuild?
Keith Law: I would, and included both in my ‘trade market overview’ piece last month.

Andrew: Any thoughts on PAX Unplugged? How was the experience?
Keith Law: Had a blast. Brought my daughter to Kids’ Day on Sunday, and she didn’t want to leave (the show was closing, so we had no choice). Absolutely planning to attend again next year.

Matt: So what are the Yankees doing? It seems like they canned Girardi for the sake of canning him w/o giving nary a thought to whom the new manager will be.
Keith Law: I would agree with that outside assessment.

Mike (Toronto): Were/are you a fan of R.E.M.? With Automatic for the People’s 25th anniversary this month, I just wondered. I think they’re among the most important American bands ever (not that I’m trying to sway you).
Keith Law: Peak REM, yes, up to and including that album. Falloff from there was quick. Their 1980s output, which didn’t sell quite as well, was tremendous and I think remains influential today.

Brett: Are you of the opinion that sports gambling should be legal in all 50 states?
Keith Law: I don’t have a yes/no answer to that. I think such activities should generally be legal – gambling, prostitution, marijuana – but that they create externalities that require regulation. Gambling, especially casinos, leads to rises in bankruptcies, domestic violence, and other crimes. Who pays those costs?

Joe : Can the royals contend next year?
Keith Law: I can’t see how.

Ed: Love all of your work Keith. Is Hudson Potts being overlooked as a prospect ? At 18 he had the best fielding % in the MWL and clearly was able to make adjustments at the plate in the second half. What should we look for in High A this year as the numbers will be inflated in the Cal league? Increased patience at the plate?
Keith Law: Solid prospect but fielding percentage is beyond worthless for minor leaguers.

Todd: Was at the Braves season ticket deal today where McGuirk talked about a “Rogue Employee in the Dominican” today. I asked to be sure I heard it right but that’s what I heard. Thoughts ?
Keith Law: Someone needs to ask McGuirk what he knew and when he knew it.

Ryan: Would you recommend Ex Libris for fans of heavier games?
Keith Law: It’s medium-weight. I like it quite a bit.

Justin R: Wouldn’t the best Red Sox move be to find a low-cost 1B with some power and assume Benitendi/Betts/Boegaarts hit for more power in 2018?
Keith Law: Hosmer is a terrible fit for Boston; they need power and he has never slugged .500.

JR: I know there’s still a month left (which means 20 more books for you to read), but what were the 3-5 most enjoyable books you read this year?
Keith Law: I Contain Multitudes. Evicted. Betaball. The Erstwhile (part 2 of The Vorrh trilogy). The Fifth Season. Mister Monkey. The Underground Railroad. Not a Scientist. The Last Days of Night. The Cooperstown Casebook.

Justin R: What would be your ideal tax plan for the US?
Keith Law: I would prefer to see tax reform that simplifies the tax code, reducing the government’s cost to collect it and society’s cost to calculate and file it, rather than this current bill that is a giant sop to corporate and wealthy donors and that ignores the recent history of such tax cuts. (The GOP is tweeting how the JFK tax cut boosted the economy. They’re full of shit: The top marginal rate was 91% before that tax cut. It’s 39.6% today. That makes all the difference.)

Matt: What about cortisone shots? Players take them all the time yet no one says anything. It’s a steroid.
Keith Law: Of course. It’s a legal steroid. Is LASIK a PED? (PEP?) We draw arbitrary lines to suit our purposes.

Jshep12: Adderall is the most often prescribed amphetamine. 10% of MLB players are using it because it is prescribed for their ADHD. Only 4-6% of the population is prescribed this drug. Is this a problem? Is this a problem MLB can do anything about?
Keith Law: If you can go to Dr. Nick Riviera and get a diagnosis, and MLB grants you a therapeutic use exemption, you’re clear. They could crack down on TUEs, but I doubt they’d do so, or that the union would stand idly by.

Craig: Does Nate Pearson have a chance to make your next top 100 prospects?
Keith Law: No.

Jshep12: So, based on what you said about Hoffman, does Rivera deserve to be in the HOF?
Keith Law: These two are not comparable, and people who ask me this sort of question are guilty of not doing even the most basic homework. Rivera threw 194 more innings and gave up 32 fewer ER, despite pitching in the AL East. Hoffman spent his entire Padres’ career in pitchers’ parks, often with park factors at -10%. They’re not the same. If you think they’re the same or even close, then wake up – the saves fairy is just something your parents made up so you’d feel better about the 9th inning.

Rahn: Do you see the Pirates’ prospect pool thinning? And can you give me someone to keep my eye on this year that you will be monitoring as well?
Keith Law: The system as a whole had a down year; other than Keller, all their major guys stagnated or took steps backward. Still a lot of ability in the system, but they have numerous guys who’ll need a strong 2018 to maintain prospect value or stay on track for the majors.

Gorman: Why do you need three pitches to start, but only 2 to relieve?
Keith Law: Oversimplifying a little, but relievers don’t face batters twice in a game, and can generally survive with platoon splits where starters can’t. If you’re a starter and can’t get opposite-side hitters out consistently, well, you’re not a starter.

Phil: What is Gohara’s ultimate upside? He’s the best Braves pitching prospect I’ve seen during rebuild to-date IMO and by fairly large margin
Keith Law: #2 starter upside. And 350 pound upside too. Gotta worry about the long-term health there.
Keith Law: I love Gohara as a prospect though. That’s just pointing out the obvious downside.

Heather: Cardinals are planning on going with at least two rookies in their rotation (choose from among Flaherty, Reyes, and Weaver). Can you have two rookies pitching that much, and still consider yourself a true playoff contender?
Keith Law: Sure. Why not? Better question might be if those rookies are good enough, but I don’t see rookies as automatically worse than veterans.

Gorman: Not trying to be flippant on Kemp, but doesn’t he at least profile as a slightly above average player on offense?
Keith Law: I have his Fangraphs page open now. 0.0 Batting Runs, which is league average, but doesn’t account for position. For a corner outfielder, that’s below average. It’s below average for a DH too.

Adam Trask: Speaking of pitchers and running, I heard that Aroldis Chapman used to beat Billy Hamilton in spring training sprints. Could that be true?
Keith Law: I’ve heard that too. Also was told way back when that Clay Buchholz beat Jacoby Ellsbury in sprints in instructs.

Chris: Can we expect a year-end list for music this year? I miss your album reviews.
Keith Law: I do them every December after the winter meetings, because there’s still new music coming every Friday.

KEvin Bo: Hey Keith, how in the world does it make sense for the supposed cash strapped Mets to be thinking about allocating their “minimal” resources to a 1B. Why not let Smith play it out as a cheap homegrown option.
Keith Law: I wonder if that was meant to motivate Smith to work on conditioning, or if someone took a quote out of context. You’re right that it’s foolish, and also, the best thing they could do for all their young players is already done: They fired the manager.

Brett: Keith, I’ve always admired your intelligence, but your above comment to Drew has me shaking my head. Some person named “Drew” says the State Department is the worst it has been in 35 years, without citing any evidence to prove this claim, and you buy into it? Dangerous.
Keith Law: I ‘buy into it?’ Overreact much? This is a chat, not a fucking grand jury hearing.

Steve: Should Franken step down?
Keith Law: Yes. Conyers too. I don’t care how you’ll vote; if you assault, harass, or abuse women, you’re out.
Keith Law: And it’s never just one victim. We see this again and again – after the first Franken story, after the first Moore story – oh, it’s just one woman, she’s lying, it happened the one time so many years ago, but then other women feel empowered enough to come forward with their own stories of assaults.

Adam Trask: Do you have your best San Diego restaurant recommendations in one place?
Keith Law: I do indeed: http://klaw.me/29EChkJ I haven’t gotten to Herb & Wood yet but hear it’s wonderful. I’d also put a hard ‘no’ on Marea coffee.

Dallas: Yovani Gallardo threw a very good curveball when he was the Brewers best starter. He got cutter happy in Texas and went away from the curve. In 2017, he brought the curve back a little bit and it rated fairly well via FG pitch values (3.3). His fastball ticked up 1 MPH this year. If he went Rich Hill, curveball/fastball do you think this would work for him?
Keith Law: Maybe if he also moved to the extreme end of the rubber like Hill did? But for Hill it made him deadly vs LHB, who tend to have bigger platoon splits. Not sure it’d have the same benefit for a RHP.

AJ: Just wondering if you read baseball novels and if so, which ones do you recommend. I am a great fan of Roth’s “Great American Novel” (if you can get past the misogyny). Have heard very good things about “The Celebrant.”
Keith Law: Don’t care for baseball in fiction. I read very little sports content for leisure; that is work, and I don’t like work to come into my hobbies.

Justin R: Have you seen “A Handmaid’s Tale”? Any interest?
Keith Law: Loved the book (and cringed through it). Not sure I would enjoy a long series of that.

Rahn: Top Chef is coming up. Still excited, even though recent seasons have played up the cheftestants squabbles and irritating behavior more than the food? And I saw that John Besh is still on the season description. I guess you can’t drop him from an episode of reality contest TV after it’s been shot. Will be interesting to see how they handle that gross guy’s presence.
Keith Law: I didn’t love the last season, and I’m just not going to watch a Besh episode at all.

Chris: HOW IN THE WORLD IS IT LEGAL TO USE TAXPAYER TO SETTLE A HARASSMENT CLAIM AND KEEP THE AGREEMENT CONFIDENTIAL?!?!
Keith Law: If only there were some way to change that …

Drew: As a response to Brett: I speak from anecdotal evidence, and know a large number of Foreign Service Officers who have worked under various administrations, serving their country regardless of which party was in office. They are feeling incredibly downtrodden right now, in large part because the President has no understanding of, or interest in learning about global affairs. Add to that the number of positions open and career public servants being pushed out of their positions, and it’s bleak.
Kim Last: My dad works for the State Dept and he said morale is much better than the last 8 years and things are going great.
Keith Law: So, I’m not vetting comments for authenticity. Do with these what you will.

Chris: What’s one band/singer that is no longer together/alive that you never saw live that you wish you could have?
Keith Law: Soul Coughing.

Jerome: No one actually paid a 91% tax rate in the 50s, so well done with the red herring
Keith Law: Politifact disagrees with you: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/nov/15/bernie-… Also, the point is not the specific 91%, but that the benefit of cutting the top marginal rate is intrinsically connected to the actual top marginal rate before the cut.

Andre: What’s your take on the criticism of those who are saying women have taken too long to come out with accusations of sexual assault? I held my tongue at some Thanksgiving gatherings–and got upset at others–but I find it abhorrent that anyone would suggest that any amount of time is too long to be credible.
Keith Law: A woman I went to HS with was defending Matt Lauer (after the first accusation … see above for how that works) by saying she had it in for him by coming forward now. I might have lost my shit. Victims are traumatized. They may fear retaliation. They may feel shame or blame themselves. They may wish to just move on with their lives. IT IS NOT UP TO US TO SAY WHEN A VIC TIM IS ALLOWED TO COME FORWARD. Praise the women who do, but support the ones who don’t.

Ethan: I opened Matt Kemp’s same FanGraphs page because I love actual examples to try and understand these advanced ideas, so can you help explain this–why does Kemp have such large negative values across the line (Batting, Fielding, Base Running, etc.), but “only” a -.5 WAR. It doesn’t add up to me.
Keith Law: I believe those double-count the positional adjustment.
Keith Law: Also, those Runs figures are averages, WAR is vs replacement level.

Chris: So you’re a grad assistant receiving a stipend for tuition, and under the new tax bill the amount of tuition (which can hit $80,000/yr) will now be taxed. Just lovely.
Keith Law: Yep. Because the last thing we would want as a country is a more educated populace.
Keith Law: That seems like the right way to end this chat. Look for the Ohtani column on Saturday and a Lady Bird review here later today. I should be back to chat next week before the winter meetings, likely on Thursday.
Keith Law: Thanks as always for reading and for all of your questions. Have a safe weekend!

Feel free to sign up for my free email newsletter, which I send out … I guess whenever I feel like it. I aim for once a week, although I’ve gone as long as two weeks between issues when I haven’t had much to say. You can see past issues at that link.

Also, don’t forget to buy copies of Smart Baseball for everyone on your Christmas list!

Keith Law: Take one for the team; you’re a cog in the machine. It’s Klawchat.

Dr. Bob: Hey there, Keith. The NL ROY was obvious. I was curious about your second and third place votes since they went against the grain of other voters. Not a complaint. Can you educate us as to your reasons?
Keith Law: I was floored to see all the votes for Josh Bell – a fine player, but worth under a win because 1) he’s a first baseman and 2) he’s a *terrible* first baseman. It’s 2017; we know position matters and we know defense matters. I’m not saying my ballot was ‘right,’ but Margot was clearly worth more than Bell, thanks to defense/position, and he’s over a year younger to boot. Hoskins was worth more than Bell too, and there you’ve got the direct positional comparison. There was a clear #1, and there wasn’t really anyone in the NL who was a clear #2, or someone you’d say “well, if Bellinger hadn’t won, this guy would have probably won it.” But the downballot totals didn’t make much sense to me.

Nick: Turkey question: How would you approach seasoning a turkey that’s been dry brined and spatchcocked? I’m thinking unsalted herb butter during the cooking process?
Keith Law: I cook it at high temp with nothing else on it (just put water in the roasting pan so it doesn’t smoke), then leave seasoning to the gravy. At 425-450 I’d be concerned about burning any butter on or in the bird.

Casey: Do the Cardinals go with Paul DeJong as their opening day starter at SS? If so what are the chances he’s an average regular there?
Keith Law: I’m fairly sure they will; I’d probably say 33% chance.

Nick: Do you podcast often? If so, what are you’re favorites (I’m big on Radiolab)?
Keith Law: Grierson & Leitch’s movie podcast; The Hidden Brain; Joe Sheehan’s podcast. That’s it right now. I always listen while doing something else – driving, mowing, cooking/cleaning.

Casey: Which Cardinals SP prospect has the highest ceiling…Hicks or Alcantara?
Keith Law: Hicks.

Adam: Thoughts on the Anthoupolos hire in ATL? Did you work with him in Toronto?
Keith Law: I did, for 2+ years, and remain a huge fan. I think it was a perfect hire, someone with a great track record, lots of respect around the industry, and a philosophy that should dovetail well with their existing amateur scouting practices. They made the best of a terrible situation.

Eric: By Monday, we’ll find out if Tony Clark wants to toss a monkeywrench into Ohtani’s plans or not. Predict for us – will a posting agreement be reached?
Keith Law: I’ll predict yes, but if this deal doesn’t pay Ohtani fairly, I’d rather the answer be no. Why let the Yankees (for example) pay $5 million for a player worth $25 million-plus a year when they can clearly afford it.

Ben: Thoughts on Vieira going to the Sox?
Keith Law: Seen him 3x. 98-102 with well below average command and no average second pitch. Have seen a CB (awful) and slider (below average). Big arm strength guy. Fine pickup for international money, but high chance he never produces any value in the majors given the command issues.

Adam: So what’s the story on Andres Munoz? Are we looking at a guy with potential to be a high-leverage reliever/ future “closer?”
Keith Law: The Padres’ teenager? Yes, that’s the most likely outcome. Very hard to see him ever becoming a starter.

Dan: Will it be Stanton/Altuve tonight?
Keith Law: That’s my expectation.

Dana: Looks like Gleyber will compete for 3B and Didi won’t be traded. Time for the Yanks to extend Didi?
Keith Law: I’ve said before I think this wastes Gleyber’s defensive value.

Adam: How many picks have to work out for a draft class to be a success? Or is it more about nailing 1 superstar than a handful of role players?
Keith Law: If you get a superstar, it’s hard for anyone to argue it was a bad class … but I think any class should be judged in the context of both the picks a team had and the caliber of the class overall. So the Rays’ 2011 class, with 7 picks in the first ~80 or so, would be judged against a higher standard than a draft where a team didn’t pick until round 2 or 3.

Adam: If you ever get a Manager of the Year vote, what basis would you use to decide who you’ll vote for?
Keith Law: I had one once. I called a bunch of GMs and other front office folks in the league and asked what they thought. I don’t think there are valid, objective criteria for that award. “They won more games than we thought they would” is a terrible proxy.

Jim: Which of the Cardinals 7 or so outfielders do you see most likely to get dealt?
Keith Law: Feels like Grichuk, Mercado, O’Neill could all be available. Wonder if they’d sell low on Piscotty; I wouldn’t. I’ve always believed he could hit.

Alex: Do you believe Stanton will actually get traded? If so, who would you guess it would be to?
Keith Law: I have said for months I think it’s unlikely – that is an enormous contract with huge risk given his injury history.

Jack: Ohtani have ace potential? 3-4 plus pitches?
Keith Law: He’s a #1 starter here.

Perry: If you’re not doing a write-up, can you give us your thoughts on the Ryon Healy trade?
Keith Law: (yawn)

Juwan: How do you view the Robles v Acuna debate (and by debate I mean petty squabbling between their respective fan bases)? They both look like future stars, do you view one more highly than the other?
Keith Law: I’ll have to put one over the other when I rank prospects in January. There are no ties.

Carlo: What role do you think Luiz Gohara ultimately fills? Thanks!
Keith Law: Starter.

Nelson: What do you hope to acheive by responding to tweets like Aubrey Huff’s? You know that theres no chance youll make any impression on him, right?
Keith Law: I had no intention or expectation of changing his mind. I want to provide a factual rejoinder for any other readers who might see his tweets. If you don’t fight ignorance or falsehoods, they spread.

Alex A: So there are rumors that the Braves are going to lose prospects. I personally don’t believe Maitan will be one of them but what do you think? If you had to put a percentage chance on it, what would it be?
Keith Law: From what I heard this summer, losing Maitan wouldn’t be the devastating blow it might have seemed a year ago. As for what will happen, it really depends on what the infractions were, and I really have no idea what gossip to believe any more. Earlier this week, I had one source tell me he heard the infractions were deep on the draft side as well as amateur … and an hour later, someone else called and said he heard the amateur side wasn’t involved at all.

John: When a high level exec is hired out of a big time analytics operation like LA, how much of the organizational “secret sauce” can they feasibly or legally bring with them? I’d imagine any actual models are proprietary, but it’s not like he can just forget player valuations or concepts, right?
Keith Law: I believe that’s part of what gets people hired from other orgs – you’re brought on because of who you are and because of what you know.

Mike: Do you think there is any chance the Rockies turn first base over to McMahon next year? Bonus question: odds Helton is one-and-done in hall of fame balloting on a crowded ballot?
Keith Law: They should, and I don’t think he’ll be one and done but I don’t think he’ll get in either.

Jake: What would the Padres signing Hosmer accomplish? They already have Myers (you can debate who’s better but I’d argue that the difference isn’t worth what Hosmer would cost) and I feel like they would be smarter to go after positions of need (SP, SS). Besides, if you’re willing to spend that much, just go for Ohtani IMO. Thanks.
Keith Law: Makes zero sense. Terrible use of limited funds for them.

Meadow Party: Thoughts on Austin Meadows? I think he can rebound from injuries. Would an offensive profile similar to prime Hunter Pence be realistic? More/less?
Keith Law: Can’t project him to Pence’s power until he starts driving the ball more consistently.

Jon: Sandy Alderson on Dom Smith: “He didn’t win it [Starting 1B job] in September, let’s put it that way.” Will go into ST competing for the gig….what to even make of this?
Keith Law: My hope is that this is a motivational tactic; I know there were questions about his work ethic in the big leagues, and of course he has to keep an eye on the scale as well. My fear is that they’re overreacting to two mediocre months and ignoring the previous body of work (and his age).

Steve: Does one WS title validate trading of Torres, Jimenez, Candelario?
Keith Law: Yes. Is this even a question?

Nils: Hi Keith, loved your book. It got me thinking about prospect evaluation. We always hear about a “5 tool prospect”, where hitting is always one of the important tools. But if a .230 hitter (with poor hit tool) can get on base at a .330 clip, and a .300 hitter (with a great hit tool) also gets on base at .330, then shouldn’t plate discipline be a 6th tool? Or is it viewed less important with a prospect with the idea it can be learned?
Keith Law: Plate discipline is seen as a skill rather than a physical tool, but at this point, it’s on many scouting report forms anyway and the five-tool rubric is a bit of an anachronism.

Justin: Did the A’s get enough for Healy? I know he is a liability in the field, but a relief pitcher doesn’t seem like a great return for a competent bat under team control
Keith Law: Liability in the field and poor OBP skills.

Joseph P: Are there any prospects from the 2017 Draft that have surprised you or is the sample size too small to mean anything?
Keith Law: Too small for most guys. I will say I was pleased to see the Twins push Brent Rooker, who turned 23 two weeks ago, to high-A out of the draft, and to see Rooker respond with very strong results in 160 or so AB there.

Jeff: Brandon Woodruff a solid mid-rotation guy? Chance to be more?
Keith Law: That’s about right.

Jibraun: Every team seemingly now has a “Quality Control Coach,” but none of them can seem to give a clear delineation of the job duties. Can you clear it up?
Keith Law: I don’t know of any standardized description of that role.

Nate: Do you have (or know people in the industry that have) any concerns about Michael Fulmer for next season? Looked to be pitching hurt his final handful of starts. Rest all that is/was needed?
Keith Law: He was hurt. Elbow injury. Supposed to be fine for spring training.

KLawGod: I’ve heard a lot of people blaming the MLBPA during this whole Otani situation. As someone who is not familiar with their role, why are they at fault here in the situation? I thought the MLBPA is advocating for Otani so why are they catching flack?
Keith Law: The MLBPA was involved in the CBA negotiations, and didn’t fight to carve out any sort of protection for Ohtani or players like him, probably because he’s not a union member and any money spent on him would, in theory, not be spent on union members. However, the clearest beneficiary of the cap is the team that signs him, and you would like to think the union would recognize that even if Ohtani isn’t currently a member, the moment he signs a contract here he will be one, and the more he’s paid the more it bumps up the top end of the starting pitcher salary scale.

Eric: Griffin Conine or Seth Beer?
Keith Law: Leaning Conine, but that’s based more on secondhand reports.

Xavier: When you were in college, what did you envision yourself doing for the rest of your life?Did you ever consider becoming an investment banker or entering the finance industry in any way?
Keith Law: I did not. Many classmates did. I heard the hours those people were working and I was very not interested.

Greg: True or False: The Red Sox Opening Day 1B will be Sam Travis
Keith Law: False.

Aaron Boone: Do you have any particular opinion on Aaron Boone’s potential as a manager?
Keith Law: He’s never managed, right? So we just don’t know.

Gene Mullett: Kershaw, Kluber, Scherzer, & Sale really seem to be the elite of MLB arms & have been for a while now. With the exception of Strasburg’s health & Verlander’s hit-or-miss seasons, which SP do you think is most capable of joining them?
Keith Law: Archer has the potential – the stuff, the athleticism, the intelligence – to join them, but has never had the consistent command for it. Carlos Carrasco might be the next tier, but he’s quietly been excellent for a few years now.

Seath: ok last question. If Maitan is one of the prospects that is forfeited by the Braves how would his FA work (or any lost prospect for that matter)? Would teams need to use their International pool money or is it a free for all?
Keith Law: Precedent says it’ll be IFA money, under the cap. But he’d keep his previous bonus, so he’s protected.

Stanton: Given that Stanton was a 7.5 win player last year and is essentially payed at or under market value aren’t the Marlins right to ask for the moon in return?
Keith Law: They can ask for whatever they want, but he was a 2-win player in 2016, and I don’t believe he’d get 10 years and $290 million in free agency this winter. Not a chance.

Gene Mullett: What album(s) is/are on your household heavy rotation lately?
Keith Law: Beck, INHEAVEN, Hundred Waters, Portugal. The Man, Death from Above.

Mike Mott: I’m cooking turkey for the first time for my Friendsgiving. Any advice? I’ve been told brining is a must.
Keith Law: I’ve brined with success, but the last three years I’ve spatchcocked the bird and “dry brined” (really, salted) instead.

Jeremy: I think it is safe to say there are waaaaaay more powerful people, particularly in politics, who are serial abusers, than we can even imagine. What ticks me off the most, is that Congress has a special fund, made up entirely of taxpayer dollars, that is specifically to take care of settlements in legal complaints against our representatives. Aren’t these guys all rich enough to take care of their own business?
Keith Law: Yes, and they’re powerful enough to make us take care of their business. I agree, there are WAY more of these cases coming, in politics (both parties, so please, stop the partisan whining), entertainment, business, and sports.

Ryan: Thoughts on Urias? There seems to be a wide spectrum. With his bat I can see the ceiling as an above average 2B competing for batting titles year in and year out.
Keith Law: I’m a fan. I don’t really care about batting average titles, but Urias can hit.

John: I know conventional wisdom is not to trade within your division, but if you were Jeter, would it make sense to find a partner for Stanton in the Braves/Mets/Phillies? If he’s good, he probably opts out before you’re competitive and if he’s not, it’s a long term hamstring for whoever ends up with him.
Keith Law: That conventional wisdom is stupid. Of course they should explore in-division trades … but the Mets aren’t touching a contract like that.

Drew: With his second consecutive, and third overall, Cy Young, do you think Scherzer is a Hall of Famer? I admittedly can be a bit of a Nats homer, but was surprised that Boswell wrote that “Cooperstown talk is a long way off because Max was a bit of a late bloomer who became good in 2010, then great by ’13 as he added a curveball to his repertoire.” Your thoughts?
Keith Law: Ask me this after Mussina is elected.

David: Hi Keith, You mentioned on Twitter that Beltran should make the Hall of Fame. I agree. He was a tremendous player with a great career. I noticed his career WAR and JAWS totals were similar to Kenny Lofton (about a 1 WAR difference on B-R over their careers and peak). Why do you think Lofton never got a push? Was it simply a lack of power in a power-heavy era?
Keith Law: Yes, and that Lofton moved around a lot so he didn’t have a fan base or local writers stumping for him.

David: What do you see as the future for Jordan Luplow? Everyday player? 4th OF? More? Less?
Keith Law: Fourth OF.

Mattey: You’re aware of the beautiful baseball stadium slated for demolition in Camden. I think it’s obvious that an affiliated minor league team would have much better there than the independent league that was there, but is that right? How much would having an affiliated team there hurt Phillies ticket sales?
Keith Law: Don’t think it’d hurt at all. Might even help, as fans would have a better chance to see prospects on their way up.

Russ: Define projectability. We have a 13yo outfielder/2nd baseman who is already 5’9 and 163. He’ll naturally add height and mass as he gets older, but does he want to leave room for “projectability” or get as strong / athletic as possible……….
Keith Law: I am not a fan of kids that young doing heavy weight training to get bigger. I doubt we know the consequences of that over the long term. Just stay in shape and have fun.

Michael Izen: Hi Keith, which team do you think will land Otani, and how much of an impact will he make on that team?
Keith Law: No idea who’ll land him.

Richard: Do you still think Ohtani’s hitting is being way overhyped?
Keith Law: Absolutely. But facts don’t matter much any more, do they?

DHugh: If Ohtani comes to the MLB this off-season, would it be permissible for a team to promise that they’d release him to free agency after a year or two?
Keith Law: MLB has made it clear they’d consider that a violation of the rules. After the Atlanta imbroglio I doubt anyone would flaunt the Commissioner’s authority so brazenly.

tom: My eleven year old granddaughter has become fanatical about baseball. When asked what she wants to do when she grows up she answers,”I am going to Yale to study economics so I can train to be a GM”. Can you recommend any books that will provide her a better understanding of the dynamics of a baseball game as well as the construction of a team. While very bright, she is just eleven years old with the expected math skills for that age. Thanks. Tom PS – she chooses Yale over Harvard, because her dad is an alum.
Keith Law: I don’t know of many books on the topic – if you’re here, then you probably know about my book – but I’d certainly suggest Moneyball too, even with its flaws. Also, tell her she should study whatever subject she loves. Economics isn’t necessary or even that useful for this sport.

Jason: Given the statistics on how rare false accusations are (and how many victims stay silent), what would it take for you not to believe an accuser of sexual violence/harassment?
Keith Law: That’s a good question without an easy answer. Certainly, if the accused can produce evidence that, say, he wasn’t in that place at that time, or something else that’s clearly disproof, that would settle it. But you’re right about how rare false claims are.

Pat D: Hate to ask this, but what’s your guess on how many people use the Franken story to justify/excuse/outright ignore the Roy Moore story?
Keith Law: I don’t follow any alt-right nitwits on Twitter, but that stuff shows up in my feed anyway, and I’m seeing a lot of that nonsense. Here’s a real hot take: Franken should resign immediately. Maybe we should just go with a Senate of 100 women instead.

Greg: What’s your outlook on Gregory Polanco? Was he just constantly hurt last year? Or has he maybe taken a step backward?
Keith Law: Seems to be a lot going wrong – not healthy, but not as selective as he was, and not making hard enough contact either. The disconnect between his physical ability and his major league performance is huge. I can’t give up on that talent, but perhaps the Pirates need to find a different coach to work with him.

Dennis: Best choice for Angels to fill the chasm at second? Sign Neil Walker? Trade for Kinsler or Gordon? Convince Cozart to switch to second?
Keith Law: Lots of 2b available now – Gordon would be the best fit if they can afford him (in prospects).

Justin Y: Rumors were flying around of a Melancon/Heyward swap. Worth the risk for the Giants? Play him in CF.
Keith Law: Andy Baggarly said it was nonsense.

Jim: How long will it take AA to make a move or two in Atlanta? At some point, they have to start trading prospects for ML talent, right?
Keith Law: Knowing Alex, I’m kind of stunned he didn’t make three trades before leaving Orlando.

Jim: What’s your favorite Thanksgiving food to cook that doesn’t contain any dead animals?
Keith Law: Dead animals can be delicious. But my Thanksgiving menu is typically turkey, two stuffings (one with chicken stock, one with andouille sausage), and then a LOT of vegetables. I roast 2-3 pounds of Brussels sprouts at high temp and toss them in a sweet and sour sauce; that’s often a big hit and it scales well for the crowd.

Adam Trask: Does Al Franken’s apology matter, or should we throw him out, too?
Keith Law: I thought the apology was weak – but does an apology unring the bell? Does it un-violate the victim? There are plenty of candidates out there who didn’t grope anyone. Step aside for one of them instead.

JR: At my kids 10u game last Friday, the pitcher for the opposing team threw 99!! pitches over 5 innings. It was the second game of a double header and after the fact we found out he had thrown an inning in their first game, so between in game and warm up pitches, etc, he probably threw around 150 pitches that day. Our team was literally in shock that they had him throw so many pitches. Crazy what adults will do too young kids to win game. Sadly, the tournament has an innings limit for each kid, but not a pitch count, so they didn’t break any rules.
Keith Law: You should approach the tournament directors and push for a rule change, then.

Dr. Rob: Which player from the 70’s or 80’s do you think should be in the HOF that would surprise the most people? For me it’s Bobby Grich.
Keith Law: Whitaker is my main guy, but I agree on Grich and also Trammell.

Andrew Vargha: How much stock do you put into 1st time through the order stats when projecting how a starter could be as a reliever?
Keith Law: Not a ton because we expect a pitcher’s stuff to tick up in a relief role. It’s more that a pitcher who struggles the 2nd/3rd time through is probably not going to work out as a starter.

Alex: After seeing/hearing about Austin Riley – don’t you think 3rd base should be what AA targets this offseason?
Keith Law: I would explore it, but you can only acquire what’s available, and I don’t think 3b is that strong (not like 2b, which is deep).

Foster: In the Verlander trade, the Tigers had to pay a reported $8 mil. a year of his salary to get Perez, Cameron, and Rogers. At the deadline, if the Yankees paid all of Verlander’s salary, but insisted on sending back Ellsbury, how much of Ellsbury’s salary and what prospects would the Yankees have had to send to complete the deal? Thanks.
Keith Law: I really can’t answer that at all. I’d just be making shit up. But I should point out that any team below Houston in the standings could have just claimed Verlander on trade waivers, even to block him, but didn’t. That alone may have been the difference between Houston winning the World Series and them losing in any of the three rounds of the playoffs, especially the last two.

Doug: I read an article last week that the Sox are thinking about trying Chavis at 2B. Does he had enough range to be passable there?
Keith Law: Worth a try. Don’t think it’ll work, but it’s a good experiment.

Brad: I’m a college student that loves board games but I don’t find video games enjoyable. One of my other three roommates have the same view as I do, but the other two won’t even give them a chance. Is there anything I can do to convince them?
Keith Law: Boardgames inspired by videogames? X-COM is out. Fallout is coming. Seeing more of these as we go along.

BrandonW: Part of me is like “good on the Twins for being transparent about an issue with Marte that can be tested and proven” and another part is “are they allowed to disclose this? Are there HIPAA issues at play?” Thoughts?
Keith Law: He’s not a citizen – does that matter? I don’t know any specifics of HIPAA. Maybe it would have gotten out anyway.

Brad: Can you explain the new tax law they’re trying to pass? I had a professor come in my class and said that it was very good for America, and that it would help all of us college students with finding a job, because more jobs would be created. I just don’t understand it and everyone seems to have an agenda these days.
Keith Law: I doubt I could do a bill that complex justice here, but that professor seems to have given you a very one-sided view that isn’t supported by the history of such tax cuts. Trickle-down economics hasn’t worked; the top marginal rate in the US and the effective corporate tax rate are low enough by global standards that cutting them hasn’t led to the sort of growth proponents have promised.

John: Long term- Kevin Maitan or Vlad Jr.?
Keith Law: Vlad Jr. Not even close. Maitan might not be a top 100 prospect any more; Vlad is top 10.

Leroy: Now that Alex Cora is a manager, who will be your new top recommendation for manager jobs?
Keith Law: That should be my new offseason project – finding the next Alex Coras out there.

KJohn: Just curious how much time you spend on baseball-related matters? A 40 hour week would be about 2,000 hours/year, with intermittent peaks and valleys. How does your time investment compare?
Keith Law: Dunno. My days are so unstructured that it would be hard to count it. I’m certainly not working 9-5 on baseball each day.

Elton: Hello Keith. I think you were the first source from which I heard about the allegations about Louis CK. You must have seen Michael Schur’s apology regarding this. I’m very conflicted and ashamed myself as a (former) big fan of CK who was hoping the stories were somehow not true. Do you think this extraordinary cultural moment where men are being held more accountable will spread to athletes, when so many of them have seemed to continue unscathed after allegations of serious sexual misconduct?
Keith Law: I really hope so. Because you KNOW this is happening across sports. But the handful of times that women have come forward, they’ve had their lives torn apart. Look at Jameis Winston’s accusers – and, by the way, he skated on everything. In the time you asked that question, Jerry Jones signed three more players with histories of violence.

Bobby: Keith – First, as always, thanks so much. I look forward to these chats every week. I don’t want the Yanks to sell low on Betances – particularly if they are at least going to try Green in the rotation – but it is hard to have someone who, while generally dominant, has 2-3 periods during a season where he just loses his mechanics. What would you do w him if you’re Cash?
Keith Law: I’d consider moving him because the bullpen is such a strength for them and he’s superfluous – and could be a closer option for a team that doesn’t want to spend on a Wade Davis. Related: I don’t like moving Chad Green back to the rotation.

Jacob: Should Roy Moore win the special election, and there is a strong chance he will, will you publicly blast Alabamans for sticking behind an obvious pervert….or will you admit that there are many Democrat policies that are so unappealing to many people that they would rather vote for a pedophile than a Democrat?
Keith Law: What policies would those be? I’m genuinely curious. Incidentally, if I had a comparable choice here, I’d simply abstain. I wouldn’t vote for someone who did what Moore has done even if I agreed with all of his policy plans.

Bobby: Again, love the chats. Thanks. Best side dish for Thanksgiving? Also, do you think a sous vide machine is a good purchase or not necessary? If so, which one do you recommend? Finally, Yanks next manager – guess as to who?
Keith Law: Definitely not necessary but very fun to have. Anova is what I own and the only one I’ve used. Best side dish … depends on what you like. I have a mac & cheese recipe here on the site. I mentioned the Brussels sprouts. I really try to jazz up the vegetable sides, because people say they want turkey and starches, but you can only shove so much of that into your stomach before you want to curl up and die.

Andy: Isn’t there a concern with the Braves about their position player prospects? There aren’t many after Acuna and they are about to take away Maitan, Gutierrez, Severino potentially.
Keith Law: Hi, I’m Keith Law, President of the Cristian Pache Fan Club. Can I come in and show you some literature on this fine young centerfielder? I promise it’ll only take two to three hours.

G: Being a Pirates fan, after watching Pelotero, I was no longer comfortable rooting for their acquisition methods in Latin America. The dismissal of Rene Gayo seems like a move in the right direction, but ultimately, is there a way to compete for LA talent while still playing fair, or is the problem systemic?
Keith Law: If MLB enforces its rules, we might see a real sea change in practices down there – but they must keep in mind that impoverished players have nothing to lose by breaking the rules. You police the teams, not the players.

Another Cody: Cody Carrol has gotten hype from the AFL – is he a future big leaguer?
Keith Law: Great arm. Definite big league reliever for me.

James: Given how few free agents actually live up to their contracts why are teams so willing to give out long term contracts? In your opinion did capping the draft and international free agents actually hurt small market teams because it limited the talent they could bring in and develop?
Keith Law: It’s a constrained market: Teams have lots of money to spend and strong incentive to spend it to win now, but the pool of players on which they can spend freely is always limited. The players who’d be the best investments rarely reach free agency. And yes, those caps hurt low-revenue/low-payroll teams the most.

Patty O’Furniture: Nice use of imbroglio
Keith Law: My sesquipedalian proclivity comes in handy at times.

Drew: Follow up to my Scherzer question: I *completely* agree with you about Mussina. Do you think he makes it there eventually?
Keith Law: I do. He’s going to be the next cause celebre for those of us who pick causes celebres for the Hall.

Joe: Can you explain how position affects the defensive side of WAR? I’ve tried reading about it but don’t completely understand. Is it bumped up or down depending on what position one plays?
Keith Law: Think of it this way: All MLB first baseman, in aggregate, hit .265/.347/.487 in 2017. All MLB shortstops hit .264/.319/.416. Therefore, to be an above-average hitter for a first baseman, you must hit above that mark … which would make you a superstar hitter for a shortstop. An above-average hitter at shortstop could still be a below-average hitter at first base. Positional adjustments take this into account: The standard varies by position.

JR: Thoughts on Bitcoin? Do you own or staying away?
Keith Law: Don’t own any.

Dr. Bob: If every powerful male who abused women loses his job, there’s going to be a lot turnover in politics, top levels of business, sports, etc.
Keith Law: I’m good with that.

Sal: Sorry if this is too personal, but could you talk about your daily routine a little? For example do you read eary in the morning? I’m trying to increase my productivity.
Keith Law: My routine varies more than it should, depending on how much sleep I get. But I do like writing first thing, after I drop my daughter off, because it seems to get my brain going.

Johnny O: If you’re hiring a new manager with a team that is young and at least 50% Hispanic, how much importance would you place on finding a candidate who speaks Spanish? Or is that a factor if you have two equally qualified candidates but one of them is bilingual?
Keith Law: I’d consider Spanish skills a requirement for a managing job at any level of the system, from complex leagues on up.

Chris J: What do you expect from Julio Urias going forward?
Keith Law: I’d be surprised if he pitches again.

Steve: That should be *flouts* the commissioner’s authority. Flaunting it would be the opposite.
Keith Law: You are correct; they’d be flaunting their flouting, so to speak.

Frankie: Francis Martes — does he still have a future as a starter?
Keith Law: Not impossible; more likely a reliever for me, but far from certain.

Tom: I have a product I spent a lot of money on but now I don’t like the company. So I’m going to smash said product to smithereens even though the company already has my money cause that’ll learn em. That’s how this works, right?
Keith Law: I was so torn, because Keurigs are awful for the environment, and they make terrible coffee (the grounds are stale by the time you brew that cup), but my God was it funny to see the reactions. And, by the way, no one seemed to want to admit that Hannity claimed on air that a 14-year-old could consent to sexual contact, which is false.

Carl: Did you know Ingenious is no longer available for purchase on the App Store? That game got me through several long plane trips!
Keith Law: I didn’t – that’s a bummer. Maybe I can talk to some industry contacts about bringing it back. I think the company that did Caylus went under too.

Jay: Garvey Murphy Trammel Morris Whitaker Bill Madlock all 80s guys that got so little respect from HOF
Keith Law: Well, Garvey, Morris, and Madlock are all well below the line. Dale Murphy is a tougher one: he had a Hall of Fame peak without the longevity.

Buck: I keep seeing good reports on Austin Riley in the AFL. SSS, or could there be a little bit of a breakout here?
Keith Law: I saw him. Same guy at the plate. AFL stats aren’t useful, given the small sample, good hitting environment, and highly variable levels of competition. He has improved defensively since 2016, though – I saw it, and I have heard the same from scouts who saw him this year too.

sk: Will Hunter Renfroe ever hit for average in the majors?
Keith Law: Gotta hit or lay off the slider away for that to happen.

Sam: Are the critical reports on Maitan accurate? or a little over the top being that he’s a 17 year old playing just one season over here. Also how much time does Blake Rutherford have before people start to grumble that he could be a bust?
Keith Law: I’ve heard a lot of reports about his body that I think were over the top, but his swing looks awful now. Rutherford is probably at that point now. Another bad year and he’ll get written off. (Not without reason, given his age.)

Brian: Will you do a Periscope this year as you prep your bird?
Keith Law: Absolutely. I get requests for this every November.

addoeh: People always bring up Duke lacrosse as a counterpoint to any sexual assault claim. But in addition to a single accuser who made it up, there was also a DA, Mike Nifong, who made many serious prosecutorial errors that weren’t uncovered until later. If Nifong had done his job, we probably never hear about it.
Keith Law: Agreed. Or an ethical DA (I think Nifong was disbarred for his actions?) might have uncovered lesser crimes that didn’t become a national news story.

Jesse: Mastodon’s Emperor of Sand a candidate for your top 10 albums this year?
Keith Law: I liked it, doubt it makes my top 10 offhand.

Brian: Pressure cooker or slow cooker?
Keith Law: Pressure cooker.

Jim: How do you come up with your opening statement for Klawchat?
Keith Law: Tends to be from a song I heard in the last week.

Dennis: Funner read: Don Quixote or The Count of Monte Cristo?
Keith Law: Monte Cristo by far. It’s a hell of an adventure.

Jason: What’s Pache’s ETA? And assuming the Braves move Inciarte before he’s ready, who is the better defensive CF between Pache and Acuna?
Keith Law: Three years away. Pache might be a 70 defender now.

Bryce Harper: Keith Hernandez: Hall of Famer?
Keith Law: Not for me.

Brent: If you’re the White Sox, it’s a smart move to trade your intl cash for Vieira? That arm and Cooper, it’s not crazy to hope for another Kahnle type, no?
Keith Law: Sure. I don’t mind the trade. But I don’t think he’s a great prospect. He might not be top 20 in that system now.

Lance: Were you classmates of Radhika Jones? Know her?
Keith Law: Don’t know her. I think she was ’95.

Ham Bone: With all the allegations of sexual assault, how is Peyton Manning not brought up again. He is still the face of State Farm and Papa John’s.
Keith Law: Because no one believes women who accuse athletes.

Jackie: Dwight Evans was much better at baseball than Jim Rice. And Dewey didn’t snub my autograph request when I was eleven …
Keith Law: Evans had a legit HoF case but didn’t have any hack writers stumping for him.

Vince: Mixed feelings about the situation in Zimbabwe. Mugabe was a tyrant, but military rule is almost never the answer. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Same. Mugabe’s reign of terror has impoverished the country, though. Unless they fall into anarchy like Somalia, it’s hard to fathom anything being worse.

JP: can Profar still be an above-average regular with a change of scenery?
Keith Law: I think so. Would love to see him get the chance.

Ty: Hi Keith! Shouldn’t baseball make teams at minimum ask teams to bid draft picks for Ohtani? Seems insane that they are letting a player send $100M-$200M in surplus value to one lucky team. Obviously, the better solution is to declare him a free agent which would take care of the surplus value question.
Keith Law: That’s an interesting idea. Detroit picks first; what if MLB said hey, you can take him, today, and pay him #1 pick slot, but give up that pick? If they pass, go to the next team. That’s crazy and impossible and I kind of love it.

Iowa Cowtipper: I’m glad that the many sexual assaulters are finally being exposed and agree that most accused are guilty. Still, I’m troubled by the rush to judgement that follows accusations today. I fear a new Macarthyism of sorts.
Keith Law: The accusations we’ve seen so far have either been supported by concrete evidence or been exceptionally well sourced by the journalists who’ve brought them forward. I can think of one recent allegation that didn’t fit that – George Takei – and that has, for the moment, failed to gain traction as a result. (Which is not to say it’s false.) I’d love to say we’re at or approaching some equilibrium, where every assaulter/harasser is called out and faces the consequences of his actions, but there are no false accusations out there. That’s an impossible goal, and right now, I don’t think we’re anywhere close to it.

mike : being ifa can keep previous bonus, whats stopping them from lying during interviews to get paid twice?
Keith Law: If a player lies about his age or name or something similar, he won’t get to keep the money. IFAs have no incentive to balk at illegal deals, though; in fact, the system probably discourages them from balking at them. But I think the solution is to crack down on teams offering such deals, as Boston did and apparently Atlanta did too.

Steve: Has the beer industry gone too IPA happy?
Keith Law: You mean too hoppy?

Kilgore Trout: If a male engaged in any of this boorish or offensive behavior as a minor, but later grew up and realized the errors of his ways, should there be consequences?
Keith Law: Consequences like disqualification from public office? Sure. But that’s separate from any judicial process.

Bill: A lot of people are writing off Gardenhire as an old school manager, but he seems to have embraced the analytics training he got with the Diamondbacks, an idea backed up recently by comments from Torey Lovullo. Old dog/new tricks?
Keith Law: This will only be borne out by his actions on the job. He can say the right things now, but it’s all just words until we see a real change in his style.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week, and with the holiday next week I will not chat again until the 30th. I will do a Periscope video chat while I’m prepping for the big meal, though, so I hope some of you will join me there. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions!