Keith Law: Monuments put from pen to paper turns me into a gutless wonder. Klawchat.

Mitchell: Pre-season you raved about Paddack and said he has mid-rotation upside. Has what he’s done so far increased his upside in your mind?
Keith Law: No, nor should it, really. He’s been great, but that’s what a mid-rotation prospect with a plus-plus changeup should be doing at that level. There really aren’t that many guys with more upside than “mid-rotation” in the minors.

silvpak: yusniel diaz has continued his progression this year, putting up dramatically improved strike zone recognition (35 walks and Ks in 189 abs vs. 45/102 last year in 439), with upticks in slugging as well (albeit in tulsa). any changes in his long term outlook?
Keith Law: He’s healthy now, which makes a big difference. I don’t think there’s plus power in there but I do think he can hit for average with a high OBP, more in line with the player the Dodgers thought they were signing than what they’ve seen in the last two years.

Chris: As a Mets fan, Im in favor of trading deGrom and Thor. The team does not have enough talent to be a true WS contender even with those guys and should use the few valuable assets they have to build up the the org for years to come. I find the argument to keeping those guys fundamentally flawed bc I don’t see the Mets as more than a WC team even when firing on all cylinders.
Keith Law: Especially deGrom, whose value is probably at its peak, who has already blown out once, and who is a free agent a year sooner than Thor is.

Chris: Any thoughts on the Mets player development issues? Sporadic playing time for Amed Rosario and Dom Smith is so puzzling to me.
Keith Law: Same. Their handling of both kids has been weird, possibly deleterious, since they were recalled.

Dave: Klaw: Hope you and your family had a great Fourth. My question is about bunting against the shift. I don’t understand why lefties won’t at least attempt to drag one down the third base line. Is there some unwritten rule against this? I know it’s hard to bunt, but the occasional try might make teams think twice about playing their third baseman just left of second.
Keith Law: I assume you mean to try to push one down the 3b line, and I agree that yes it’s hard and yes it’s still worth trying. The short-term payoff is a free base. The long-term payoff is less of a shift. It’s worth having such hitters practice push bunts to see who can pull it off.

bernie: Do the Brewers have the logical pieces to go after a deGrom, or another type of arm who could be a Game 1 playoff starter? Do you see a great team in the NL? Who would you favor for the NL pennant right now?
Keith Law: Dodgers and Dbacks look like the best teams, Cubs not far behind, Brewers behind them. However, adding a #1 starter would certainly improve the Brewers’ odds of winning the Central which would in turn improve their odds of advancing (vs winning the wild card, even to host, and then playing a coin flip game). I think they have the pieces to get a deGrom but might be reluctant to deal that much talent from their system, given their payroll constraints.

Chris: Hi Keith, Mitchell White’s stat line has been pretty bad at AA, is there something physically wrong with him at this point?
Keith Law: He hasn’t really been healthy since spring of 2017.

Matt: If you’re the Nats do you start to Sell and retool for next year? What are the moves?
Keith Law: No.

Andres (Atlanta): Always a fan of your musical taste. Since it’s now July, what are your top 3 albums of the year so far?
Keith Law: I tend to think in terms of singles rather than albums. If you look at my playlists, you’ll see certain artists pop up again and again – Courtney Barnett, Wooden Shjips, Django Django, Snail Mail have all appeared a few times with songs from their latest albums.

Matt: Have a question on your view of Democratic Socialism. Is this a viable economic path or something where elements of it hold merit and value but the overarching principle flies too much in the face of free market? I just wonder how legitimatelt socialist democratic socialism is.
Keith Law: If you saw the Hannity graphic outlining the ‘horrors’ of Ocasio-Cortez’s platform, it bore little resemblance to actual socialism. Neither she nor any DSA candidates I know of are proposing nationalizing industries, for example. They are proposing an expansion of the social safety net, which is a progressive/liberal policy, one that socialists would embrace but not something that is inherently socialist. It’s also a policy shift worth discussing, since there’s evidence that, say, a healthier workforce is a more productive one and thus leads to more economic growth, but I don’t see the right having this discussion at all.

BE: The beat writers wrote about the Tigers shifting their approach to more athletic high upside guys in this years draft. Was that your take?
Keith Law: That’s not accurate, at least not based on who they took. Meadows is the one possible exception, a good athlete but not a huge upside guy, and he has a hitch in his swing he’s going to have to try to smooth out.

smell the glove: How reliable are defensive metrics? Which ones, if any, do you consider useful? I’ve seen smart people I respect all over the map with their opinions on this topic.
Keith Law: I discussed this in my book. I look at UZR and dRS and think they are directionally correct if the samples are large enough, certainly accurate at saying what happened but lacking the predictive precision we desire from other statistics.

Mike: Any idea what’s happened to Jose Albertos this year?
Keith Law: Looks like the yips to me.

JR: When you were in Europe, how tempted were you to just not come back given the buffoon we have for a President? Kidding aside, how were you treated when people found out you were American? With sympathy? bewilderment? anger? Just curious what more civilized countries think of us these days.
Keith Law: A lot of dismay, certainly. I apologized a lot for our policies and how we’ve treated other countries/leaders.

Greg: Hearing anything about Carter Stewart signing or not?
Keith Law: They all sign unless they fail a physical.

jake: what’s changed this year about justin dunn
Keith Law: A year older, holding his mechanics together a little better

Brett: Zac Lowther have any type of ceiling in the Bigs, or is this just him being too old for his level?
Keith Law: Low ceiling guy but may end up a good back-end starter. Huge extension in his delivery, high spin fastball, so hitters don’t see it even at 88-89.

Kyle: When is your midseason prospect list coming?
Keith Law: After the All-Star Break. Same time every year.

HankQQ: Any thoughts on the unsigned 1st rounders?
Keith Law: No. They all sign unless they fail a physical.

Jake: What are your thoughts of the Royals farm system after the draft/international signing period. Still bottom of the barrel?
Keith Law: Yes, still poor.

Tom: If the Braves were to trade Pache, what do you think the return would have to be right now
Keith Law: I don’t think they’re trading him.

Donald: Nick Madrigal is starting off at Winston-Salem. Do you agree with the aggressive placement?
Keith Law: I do.

Mike: Would you classify this year as a success or failure for Christian Pache so far?
Keith Law: Do I have to?

Jake: Where would you rate Singer, Kowar in terms of the Royals best prospects?
Keith Law: Lee is clearly #1 in that system. Kowar, Lynch, Singer, probably in that order, are behind him now.

Mike: So … Max Muncy! Thoughts?
Keith Law: Not really. We get these one-year flukes a lot.

Rob P: Is Javier Baez the most exciting player in MLB right now? Whether it’s his ridiculous swings, him stealing home or making an amazing defensive play he always seems to have a daily highlight reel.
Keith Law: Extremely fun to watch. Flawed, obviously. But for sheer pleasure of watching, I’m not sure I can name anyone better.

Chet: I would assume that Shane Bieber is here to stay for the Indians, but is he the front runner for AL ROY now?
Keith Law: Gleyber is out for ten days. He’s not dead.

Will: Thoughts on Mozeliak’s comments on Dexter Fowler?
Keith Law: To borrow a line from Pam, inappropes.

Mike: Is Johan Camargo the real deal?
Keith Law: No. Been pitched around a lot, inflating his BB and OBP.

Zach: Has the uptick in numbers from Hunter Greene been accompanied by an uptick in stuff? Think the Reds should/will move him to AA before the end of the year?
Keith Law: No, he was always throwing hard – he was 97-101 when he struggled, and there isn’t really an uptick from there. I see zero reason for them to jump him to AA from low-A – that would be totally irresponsible. He should go to high-A first.

Dave: Has Kebryan Hayes increased his stock this year? Looks like a legit starting 3B in majors. If develops more power, look out
Keith Law: This is the player I think most people, myself included, thought he’d become when he got out of the Florida State League (which seemed to really kill any power at all). I don’t think he’s a 20 HR guy but I think he’ll hit, get on base, have enough doubles power, and play grade 70 defense.

Brian: What is your best guess as to why the Cardinals – by all accounts a progressive, resourceful organization – chose not only to hire Mike Matheny, but retain him for years? I know superficially (very superficially) he’s gotten good results, but what do you think is even the non-persuasive rationale for what the Cards’ FO sees in him?
Keith Law: I have no idea. His flaws are very evident on the surface, and become more so whenever he tries to explain his bad decisions. There are so many better options out there.

Trevor: What kind of prospect would you expect back for Brad Hand? Kyle Tucker? Mejia? Groome?
Keith Law: You’re not getting Tucker or Mejia. Groome is out with TJ well into next year, so I imagine he’s available.

Ryan: Hey Keith, Pavin Smith is having a disappointing yet interesting year. Great BB and K rates, more power than last season, unimpressive batting average. What are you hearing about his season so far? Thank you!
Keith Law: talked to a few scouts who saw him and asked me why he was a first rounder. They may be overreacting to the poor performance, but it’s not a great sign.

Mike: If you were Alex Anthopoulos, how would you handle this deadline?
Keith Law: If you can improve the team by trading guys on the margins who aren’t part of the future – the Lucas Sims types – then do it. Trading significant prospects for short-term help would be really stupid, though. I’m shocked whenever Atlanta fans suggest it. You really want to trade a potential stud like Pache for a two-month rental?

Ivy: Do you believe in the whole “manager has lost the clubhouse” thing? If so, has Buck lost the O’s, or do you think they’re finally playing down to their talent level?
Keith Law: I believe a manager can lose the clubhouse; I don’t think it can ever be the primary explanation for a team underperforming. The roster just wasn’t very good coming into the year, and the years of overperforming, which involved a lot of good fortune, are probably over.

Matt: When assigning a grade to a prospects speed, is it as simple as just timing home to 1st/2nd sorting that way, or are there other considerations that go into that grading?
Keith Law: You still want to see if the player is faster underway. Some players are slow out of the box and faster going first to third. Jacoby Ellsbury always gave me bad times home to first even when he was a visible 7 runner.

Matt: Is Manny Machado really this bad at shortstop? His defensive metrics are horrible.
Keith Law: 740 innings is a very small sample for defensive metrics.

Thomas: In what order would you rank the Tigers’ top arms in their system? (Mize, Manning, Faedo, Burrows, and Perez). I assume Mize is 1.
Keith Law: Mize, Perez (if healthy), Burrows, Faedo.

Patrick: in your professional opinion, at what age is recommended for young pitchers to begin throwing breaking balls (curve, slider, etc)? I’ve heard too early can have a huge impact on elbow issues as they grow.
Keith Law: That’s a hypothesis that I don’t think is proven either way, but I do favor the advice of just having kids throw fastballs and some simple changeup so they learn a consistent throwing motion and can work more on locating. A 13-year-old who can spin the ball will end up using it all the time because hitters can’t hit it, and then he’s not learning anything either.

Dodgers top outfield prospect : What’s the difference between Alex verdugo and yusial Diaz ?
Keith Law: Very different profiles. Verdugo has more power and speed. Diaz looks like a more steady avg/obp type.

God: Tim Tebow, All-Star. I win, KLaw loses. Carry on.
Keith Law: A bunch of Tebags tweeted me about this, as if putting the washed-up QB was anything other than a publicity stunt to try to get more fans to go to the game. It’s sad that a minor league All-Star game isn’t reason enough for fans to show up (and it’s in Trenton, where I go all the time, a great park that’s super easy to get to).

tallmrj: What are your thoughts on some of the O’s class A pitching prospects like Hall, Lowther, Bauman, Hanifee, etc…? They have had a good first half.
Keith Law: Saw Hanifee on Tuesday and will write that up after I get my Futures Game preview post done. Lowther I mentioned above. Baumann is a power arm but probable reliever. Hall is the one I keep trying to see, but for whatever reason that team isn’t great about putting scheduled starters out there.

Jeries: Does Nick Madrigal have any chance at developing power like other short guys (Gennett, Albies, etc)?
Keith Law: Very little chance.

Carl: Are you encouraged at all by Matt Manning’s pitching as of late? Strikeouts keeps racking up and the walks have been held in check.
Keith Law: He walked 5 just a couple of starts ago, so, no.

wide awake in america: Since you’re a smart guy who’s figured out a lot, maybe you can help – have you figured out sleep? Do you have trouble sleeping on the road? Do you have trouble turning your mind off? I’m failing in this, and I hate to resort to medications for sleep (though I sometimes do). (If you need a baseball hook, pretend I asked about Mike Napoli. And this is a sincere question, you’re wise on many subjects.)
Keith Law: Read Matt Walker’s Why We Sleep. And don’t use those medications. They don’t work.

J: With the standard small sample size issues aside, can Tigers fans be excited about the improvement from Daz Cameron, Issac Paredes, and Matt Manning?
Keith Law: I’m a big Cameron fan. He’s not his dad, but I think we can all accept that and move on to appreciate what Daz is – at least a solid regular, maybe more, even if he’s never a superstar. I think the Tigers would be thrilled if Daz became a solid regular for six years.

EG: Any thoughts on Bryce Harper’s mediocre (by his standards) season? Batting average way down
Keith Law: Quality of his at bats seems to have declined the last month or so. (Bear in mind I was on vacation too, and missed about eight nights of games. I’m not sorry.) I don’t know specifically what’s eating him, but I wonder if the team faring poorly has him pressing to try to do too much.

Jake: What sort of return do you think the Royals could get for Whit Merrifield right now? Org depth? 4.5 yrs of control.
Keith Law: Org depth, maybe one mid-tier prospect. He’s 29 and the power surge from last year looks like a fluke now.

Dave: Did you envision Nola would become this good?
Keith Law: No, he’s really improved his secondary stuff since he signed. CB and CH both substantially better. Love watching him … I haven’t been to many games at CBP this year but if he’s pitching I’m more interested in going.

Logan: What’s your opinion of O’Neil Cruz?
Keith Law: He’s very tall.

Jeries: Who did you like better out of HS, Greinke or Carter Stewart?
Keith Law: I never saw Greinke out of HS – that’s before my time.

Marissa: Hi Keith. I am wondering your thoughts on David Peterson. I see that he’s not in the top 100 prospect lists and wondering if you agree with that or not.
Keith Law: He was on mine in January.

Old Tom Morris: I see you mention the yips often, and it’s such a good way to describe what you’re describing. It makes me wonder, do you play golf? Like golf? Watch golf? Or is TV golf a good nap, spoiled?
Keith Law: What is golf?

Jason: Re traveling in Europe, I know you were in Italy. Needless to say they have their own issues and really aren’t ones to talk.
Keith Law: Aside from the tu quoque fallacy you invoked, Italy’s social and environmental policies are way ahead of ours.

Rick Hahn: How impressive has Luis Gonzalez been? What’s his ceiling?
Keith Law: Everyday player. Not impressive when a college player tears up low-A, though.

Greg: Well aware of how it works with first-round picks usually signing unless physical issues, but that’s the question about Carter Stewart. Pipeline and others have reported medical concerns, and I was curious if you had heard anything.
Keith Law: I won’t report medical concerns about players, if I know them, until after the player has signed. Doing so could jeopardize the player’s leverage and any potential scholarship – and, legally, I’d better have proof beyond any doubt that what I heard was correct. So I just don’t.

Guest: Do you believe Jonathan India can handle SS at the big league level?
Keith Law: No, but I’d send him out as a SS and see how it looks.

John : Generally a big fan of Inciarte, but it feels like the Braves are wasting so much of Acuña Jr’s value in left. Is it just too difficult to get a comparably valuable player to Ender, but with tools shifted more towards the bat than fielding? Also keeping Pache and potentially even Drew Waters in mind for the next 4 years that Ender is under contract.
Keith Law: I have argued since last fall that they should shop Inciarte.

Randy B: Is Kyle Wright showing the same potential for mid-rotation starter with a half season+ under his belt?
Keith Law: A little more than that. I’d like to see fewer walks, but he’s also essentially gone from the SEC to AA.

JC: Its very #scoutingthestatline but, Touki Toussaint’s BB/9 continues to trend downward (in the good way) & was recently promoted to AAA. What’s the outlook for him?
Keith Law: Potential #2 starter, still improving. Was very raw when he was drafted but had athleticism and a golden arm. Now he’s showing feel for three pitches and his control has gradually improved over a long sample now.

PhilG: Hey Keith what games are on your tabletop recently?
Keith Law: Tried Rising Sun, which is good but i think really plays much better with five than with three. I just got a review copy of Carthage to try out.

HugoZ: If I’m a fan of a contender, is there a case for hoping my team’s players won’t make the all-star team so they’ll have the extra days of rest?
Keith Law: Absolutely.

here’s your future: In the year 2030, there will be ____ MLB clubs? And will the divisions or playoff structures be radically different?
Keith Law: I could see 32 teams. I don’t think we have the markets to support more than that.

Jeries: Is Luis Robert’s thumb injury one that can linger throughout his career?
Keith Law: That would really surprise me, but it has certainly ruined his 2018. I’m hoping he’ll be in the AFL; that’s twice now that he’s gone on the shelf a day before I was scheduled to see him.

Larry: Atlanta is one of the few teams that have zero reported international signings. They’re still allowed to sign guys up to 300k this year, but it doesn’t look like they have yet. Is that strange a few days after the deadline? Are they planning to trade their money?
Keith Law: That isn’t strange. A lot of lower-dollar signings aren’t done immediately or aren’t widely reported.

Bill: Is Gavin Lux becoming a guy?
Keith Law: I’m a Lux fan, but bear in mind that the Cal League South is a great place to be a hitter. Rancho is a hitter’s park, and he’s got 9 games at Lancaster already (16 for 44, 2 hr, 6 doubles). So I don’t want to get too far ahead until he shows some of this is real when he gets to Tulsa.

trevor: will Tebow ever play a game in the majors?
Keith Law: I have zero doubt in my mind that he will. Probably in September, because the Mets are so bad, and they’ll decide this is a good way to get attention and more fans to the park.

Max: Why is Cavan Biggio not getting much love at AA? Is he being overshadowed or is he not that good a prospect?
Keith Law: He’s not a great prospect; he’s not a good defender at 2b, and while he has power he’s not that great a hitter, lacking good bat speed. He’s also kind of stopped hitting in the last five weeks or so after the crazy start.

Carl: Have you watched GLOW on netflix?
Keith Law: No. Currently watching The Leftovers and belatedly catching up on Archer (S6).

Jimmy: Dbacks system seems way too light for a Machado deal … pundits keep saying Duplantier would be main piece … ughh why would the Orioles trade w Dbacks ? Their system is so light
Keith Law: There is less than no chance the O’s people clear Duplantier, who is hurt again with a shoulder (excuse me, bicep) issue, given their history of killing guys with trivial medicals.

BassmanUW: Re: Ocasio-Cortez and the DSA, I think one point of confusion is that the DSA does have a long history of pushing for eventual nationalization of industry. Whether or not that’s still their official viewpoint, which on its own is hard to tell, they clearly have taken a bigger tent mentality to support candidates who are more in line with European Democratic Socialists, where focus is primarily on social safety net.
Keith Law: I wonder if calling themselves “Social Democrats,” as some of those European parties do, would help. Probably not. They’re going to be pilloried as communists, when their policy proposals are worth a reasonable discussion given the rising issues of economic inequality, loss of jobs to automation, and continued rising costs of health care.

Ed: Do you think MJ Melendez is behind all of those Royals prospects you listed?
Keith Law: I’m sure he is.

Anthony: Do you ever attend Saberseminar?
Keith Law: Once, but it has conflicted with something else on my calendar the last four years. I am not going this year.

Scott B.: Any Wilmington/Newark food recommendations?
Keith Law: Cocina Lolo is my favorite in the area. Two Stones is very good, as is Terrain just over the line in PA for finer dining. Also love de la Coeur, which has two locations in Wilmington.
Keith Law: Oh, and Bread & Buttercream in north Wilmington is an incredible artisan bakery with real European breads.

Jimmy: Nolan Gorman been raking … way too early … but still shocked he fell into Cardinals lap
Keith Law: I’m not shocked, given his spring, but I think they have to be thrilled to get that kind of upside at that pick.

Andy: Shohei is being brought back to hit. Will hitting hurt his elbow more than just resting? It seems the ship has temporarily sailed on surgery.
Keith Law: I really don’t know the answer to that – whether swinging the bat poses any additional risk to the elbow.

Patrick: Probably should have put my name in the first time I asked: Is what CC Sabathia has been doing the past few years smoke and mirrors, or is this something sustainable for him (at least through this year?)
Keith Law: I think it’s sustainable. Plenty of pitchers have good second acts at lower velocity by learning to work more with changing speeds and improving their command. (Plenty more can’t do it, of course.)

Matt : Thanks for taking the time to chat Keith. What’s your take on a guy like Ronny Mauricio? 17 years old, great start so far, except he still has 0 walks in over 60 at bats now. Any reason to be concerned?
Keith Law: Dear god, no. It’s 60 AB, and he’s not just 17, he’s barely 17. He’s 21 months younger than Jarred Kelenic. Stop looking for reasons to worry.

Jason: Considering how against the Hosmer signing you were, would a quantity package for Thor make sense for the Padres? They have a lot of players who need to be protected this year and next
Keith Law: No, it wouldn’t, not with what they have coming.

JB: Read somewhere that Bo Bichette has looked better at SS this year. Chances any better than 50/50 he can remain at SS, at least for the first several years of his big league career?
Keith Law: He hasn’t looked better at SS this year – I’ve seen him, talked to scouts who have. I really don’t think he stays at short.

Dan: Zach Eflin’s results look good but what about the scouting? Do you think he can be a mid-rotation guy in the long run?
Keith Law: Yes. Throwing harder across the board this year. Fastball is better, slider is playing up with more velocity (breaking stuff has long been his big weakness).

Guest: Any reason why Jon Gray got sent down? His FIP reflects that he still isn’t pitching terrible, and his K:BB numbers are as good as ever
Keith Law: FIP doesn’t do well with pitchers who are giving up a lot of hard contact – its assumption breaks down on those arms. And Gray was giving up a lot of hard contact. Some of that is the ballpark, of course, and I think if he pitched anywhere else we wouldn’t even be discussing this. But I wonder if the demotion was a mental breather too, since as you said, there’s nothing wrong with his stuff and he’s still doing some things well.

Billy: What is the best way to pay for college and healthcare for everyone? Are you comfortable with paying over 50% in income taxes, which is what a lot of economists believe it will take to implement a system close to what the DemSocs are promoting?
Keith Law: I’d much rather see a reduction in our defense budget before we get to histrionics over tax rates – but if you’re asking me would I pay higher income taxes, enough that I’d notice the difference, to help provide universal health care? Yes, yes I would. (And the cost of college is even more convoluted – by making loans so easy to acquire, we’ve enabled colleges to raise tuition at rates beyond inflation for two decades.)

Garrett: Keith do you buy this hitting from Taylor Ward? I know it is the PCL league but he also hit well in Mobile early in the year. Could he be legit?
Keith Law: It’s the PCL. I’m out.

Mikey: Jared Kelenic continues to do nothing but hit in the GCL. do you feel he should remain there or move up to Kingsport or even Brooklyn by the end of the year?
Keith Law: I’m all in on him, but he’s 19 so moving him up is a great idea.

Mike: Hey Keith, what kind of return should the Jays expect for Happ?
Keith Law: Best SP on the market? Granted that’s a backhanded compliment this year, but they should hold out for a good package, one with two real prospects in it.

James: Tatis Jr is pretty awesome. At what point do the strikeouts become worrisome?
Keith Law: As I said earlier, don’t look for reasons to worry. He’s 19 in AA, one of the youngest players above A-ball, and his K% was only really bad in April – he’s at 26% since May 1st.

Rob: Do you think the Cubs have buyers remorse on Yu Darvish? Granted he’s been hurt but he has also said some very stupid things.
Keith Law: I would guess they do, more for the injuries than the stupid things, which were stupid.

Michael: After Eloy and Robert, which White Sox outfield prospect do you like the most going forward?
Keith Law: Adolfo.

Brett: You’ve always said to be patient with Buxton. Is it okay to officially think this is what he will be offensively for the majority of his career?
Keith Law: Buxton has barely played this year. I’m curious what you “officially” think he’s done this season.

RJ : Was there ever a chance Manny Machado stayed with Baltimore after the 2018 season? What he’s said and hasn’t said over the years, I always figured he wanted to play in a big market.
Keith Law: Never. I don’t think they were ever going to be able to afford him, and I have long gotten the sense he didn’t want to play for that coaching staff either.

Zach: Love how a certain GM can be anti-porn but pro-second-chance-for-a-child-abuser. Party of family values!
Keith Law: Indeed, the anti-porn stuff is weird, not backed up by actual science, and I think may violate employment laws (you can’t force employees to listen to your religious crusades at the work place). Also, aren’t the Royals the last Pride Night holdouts? I may have forgotten a team.

Skip: Your hatred of Tebow is comical. Methinks you would be driving the Kaepernick bandwagon if he decided to try baseball, as his politics are more to your liking.
Keith Law: If Kaepernick tried to play baseball now, I’d judge him exactly as I’ve judged Tebow: as the player he showed himself to be on the field.

Logan: Any specific reason the Twins are having so much patience with promoting Royce Lewis?
Keith Law: He’s 19. I’d say arguing for a promotion to high-A is impatience.

Mike: Would a package of Kyle Wright, Luiz Gohara, and Cristian Pache be enough for Syndergaard? 4 years of a career 2.59FIP is very intriguing.
Keith Law: Three years, no? That’s a lot of talent to give up, though.

A big dumb idiot: I’m likely just blinded by Gleyber and Soto, but are top prospects better earlier in their careers than they used to be?
Keith Law: I feel like we’re seeing more guys come up at 21 or younger and succeed immediately than we did even ten years ago.

Leo: When talking about reliever usage, or overuse, is it more important to look at the number of games pitched or the amount of innings pitched?
Keith Law: Both. Throwing 90 innings in 90 games – thus with fewer days off – isn’t the same as 90 innings in 60 games.

Jeff: I know he’s old for his level (high-A), but is Laz Rivera a potential diamond in
the rough for CWS?
Keith Law: Saw him for about 8 AB too. Three horrendous strikeouts to start it out – totally overmatched by a LHP with some deception – but I saw him hit a (Laz) rocket out the second game. Probably worth bumping him to AA, since he’s 23, to get a better test of his abilities. I doubt he’s really that much of a prospect, but he does have bat speed and obviously more hand strength than I first realized.

TJ: Klaw, at what point in the draft do GMs start thinking, “I would be happy if this guy just became a decent major league player”?
Keith Law: If they’re honest with themselves, by the second round.

Brian: How many people out there realize that Daz’s dad was a superstar for a few years?
Keith Law: Not enough? That’s just my perception.

Hedonismbot: Justus Sheffield has had some sold starts lately. Think he makes a start in the majors soon?
Keith Law: Maybe in September. I’m a big fan though.

Santiago: any standouts on the Aberdeen roster?
Keith Law: Adam Hall is interesting. Some arm strength guys in the bullpen. That’s it.

Juan Soto: Did you underestimate me? (from 1 to 10, how much?)
Keith Law: No.

Touki Toussaint : Why am I not getting any love on top 100 lists?
Keith Law: I think you were on mine more than one year.

Adam: Type of prospect return you expect for Rasiel Iglesias? Top 20 sort of guy?
Keith Law: Top 20 in baseball? No. Much lower.

Chris: I’m wary on Amed Rosario’s bat. Long swing with no discernible pop. You buying long-term?
Keith Law: I am.

Ricky: Do you see Carter Kieboom turning into a solid MLB player?
Keith Law: Yes. More likely off SS. Can hit, great instincts.

DRL: Hi Keith. Love your baseball/prospect knowledge, but absolutely can’t stand your blatant disrespect for our president and your liberal rants on twitter. (not that any of that matters, we don’t all have to agree), but Baseball, Americas past time is made up of way more hard working republicans than the hand out wanting liberals. I think if you were to keep you’re political opinions to yourself, you would probably do better. (don’t have to post this, just wanted you to hear). Thanks.
Keith Law: I’m doing just fine, snowflake. Maybe keep your advice to yourself next time.

Dr. Bob: Is it fair to say that Tebow has outperformed expectations (at least, at times) but is still a long ways from ever being a real prospect?
Keith Law: You could. I don’t concern myself with that – he’s either a prospect or he’s not, and I say he’s not.

Hedonismbot: How much longer do the Yankees run Bird out there? He’s supposedly healthy now and had looked terrible.
Keith Law: For all the time he missed, he hasn’t been that bad. I don’t think he’s a problem for them right now.

Pat D: Have you heard that a Trogdor board game will soon be hitting Kickstarter? I’d imagine you’ll at least try that out, right?
Keith Law: I have. I think they’ll have a demo at GenCon.

Noah: What’s your thoughts on Luis Medina? Potential top of rotation upside?
Keith Law: Big upside, but I’d like to see some success from him before we get that excited.

Scott: A’s are in a weird spot. Definitely playing well, almost no chance of the playoffs, The old guys (Lowrie, Davis) are carrying a lot of the load. Should they just ride this season out with what they got and hope Puk and Cotton are good for 2019?
Keith Law: I’d shop the ‘old guys’ because they really aren’t in an economic position to be complacent.

JR: Given there is nothing going on in the sports world on the days before and after the All Star game, when MLB be smart to move the MLB draft to those days to get more media attention? Or would teams be against pushing it back because that also delays getting the players signed and playing in your organization by at least a month?
Keith Law: Everything you said there is correct. It would boost attention, but it would hurt the short-season teams. Also, what do players whose seasons ended in late April do for two months? Do you go play summer ball and risk injury or some drop in performance? I’d really like to see draft night be an MLB holiday, with only day games and thus nothing at night but the draft.

Mark: Does Corey Ray still project to be a solid MLB player? I wish the average was higher and the K% was lower, but at least he’s not striking out more than last year and the BB% is up. The physical tools still seem quite good.
Keith Law: Yes, but probably just a solid regular, which is a disappointment for me since I thought he had star potential at Louisville.
Keith Law: I had a scout tell me he’s back to no trigger/toe tap. He needs something for timing and weight transfer – at least a small tap and stride, maybe a full leg kick.

Rob: Favorite metal album of the half-year? My vote is Rivers of Nihil.
Keith Law: Tribulation.

Kevin: Any suggestions for getting a 4 year old to learn to read?
Keith Law: Just read with him/her. Kids learn when they’re ready. We never pushed our daughter, even though you all know I’m an obsessive, heavy reader, and she got there on her own time. She’s read well ever since she got the knack.

David Rave: How was your vacation? Where’d you go?
Keith Law: Dublin, Monaco, Genoa (my cousins live there), Milan for a night, back to Dublin. Ambitious but we had certain boxes to check, including my daughter’s desire to see the second smallest country in the world, and the fact that my cousins are in Genoa but not near a major airport. It was great and also exhausting.

Eric: Yankees are a pride night holdout, which as a yankee fan is disappointing
Keith Law: Yes, that is very disappointing.

Schwemm: You mentioned the top 4 in the Royals systems earlier. Too much swing and miss for Matias?
Keith Law: And not enough patience. If anyone can find a player at 19 or younger in low-A who had a season like his, please send it over. Gallo walked more, and you see what he’s become, for better and worse.

Jeff: Jim Bowden normally has some wacky trade ideas this time of year. He recently said CLE should trade Bieber and Mejia to CIN for iglesias and Garrett. Does he think he’s still running the Reds?
Keith Law: That’s a comically bad offer for CLE.

Brian: Whats something you now believe about evaluating players that you did not believe 5 years ago?
Keith Law: I think I’ve been too dogmatic on bad deliveries. I’m much more open-minded now about them. Also, I’m looking more at guys with Goldschmidt-like profiles – no big tools, but quiet approaches, good swings with enough loft for line-drive HR power. That’s why I never dismissed Hoskins as a prospect – he didn’t have a clear 6 on the scouting report but did a lot well and things just really worked at the plate.

David: Hi Keith. Dealing with a significant other who has always had anxiety. Seems worse now, and particularly after birth of child, and worried it is impacting her view of me. In your experience is that possible? How best to deal with it.
Keith Law: If she’s willing to get help, even counseling for the two of you, that’s a good start. You can’t help someone with mental illness who doesn’t want to be helped, though.

Joe: Any signings or non-signings surprise you in the draft? Or alter your evaluation of a team’s haul/picks? (with the deadline is nearing..)
Keith Law: Ask me next week. We get these “he’s not signing!” things every year and then everyone but one or two guys in the top ten rounds ends up signing.

Peter: What are some of the big takeaways you have heard from scouts on the talent on the Cape this summer?
Keith Law: League just started two weeks ago. It’s way too soon for that, with a month or so left.

Hedonismbot: Are you a fan of Castles of Mad King Ludwig? If so, any helpful hints? Definitely has been a hard game to pick up and teach, but it looks like a great game.
Keith Law: I’m not, but I want to try the Palaces standalone sequel game, which works with identically-sized tiles.

Ray: Random player from the past question: Kal Daniels. Why did he retire so young? Injuries? He had some really good season!
Keith Law: Injuries. I loved that guy.

Grant: Do Vladdy and Eloy get healthy in time for Futures, assuming they’re on the rosters?
Keith Law: Neither.

Robert: Anything positive to report on what you saw from Blake Rutherford?
Keith Law: No. Weak contact over and over.

Jay: Have you tried Istanbul on iOS? Enjoying it quite a bit. Have you played the physical version?
Keith Law: I loved the physical version, have the app but haven’t tried it yet. Still grappling with the Scythe pre-release alpha. I got 99 points in one game, and still one of the bots beat me with 102. I said some bad words.

Travis Toots: Anything you see in Devers that you think needs a tweak or adjustment? Not in panic mode like some others at all, just curious if you’ve noticed anything that he needs to work on in particular besides just experience
Keith Law: Not in the least. Going to be a star.

Igiloo McDaichly: There’s a school of thought I’ve seen advanced online that suggests that player contracts should be described as “bad” for the team, because that’s the fans siding with the team over the player in regards to compensation, and owners are billionaires anyway and can afford to pay players way more than they are currently making. Is that a reasonable critique, in your opinion?
Keith Law: Player opt-outs? Those are bad for the team. If you’re speaking more generally of fan sentiment against paying players more, then I agree but I think that’s a bigger and more complex issue of education.

re: DRL: Tell DRL I am a 80-hour a week working Democrat who loves your baseball and political takes. Tell him to trash his lazy stereotypes.
Keith Law: And really, what I say on Twitter is a fraction of what I believe about our current political environment.

Ray: Did you attend college with Rivers Cuomo? Just a random thought I had while listening to Weezer recently.
Keith Law: He went after I did.

trout and harper: What did you think of Trout and Harper right when they broke in? Did you have a preference? Are you surprised Trout is THIS good and Harper is a tiny bit stagnated? (Obviously still a star)
Keith Law: Had them 1-2 as prospects while they were eligible. I thought Trout was a superstar, but would really never suggest any player would become Willie Mays, as he has.
Keith Law: OK, that was extra long but after two weeks off I thought it only fair to answer more questions. I will be back next week to chat, and the week after as well, on the day that the top 50 prospect rankings go up (probably the 19th). I have two book signings coming up, July 14th at Politics & Prose in DC and July 28th at the Silver Unicorn in Acton, MA. Thanks as always for reading and for all of your questions – I’m sorry I only get to a small fraction of them. Keep an eye out for my Futures Game roster preview tomorrow morning!

My latest Insider post looked at which teams just drafted their new #1 prospects.

Keith Law: You look good when your heart is on fire. Klawchat.

DJ: Is O’ neil Cruz an infielder? Top 100 guy this time next year?
Keith Law: I highly doubt he plays anywhere on the dirt other than first base, and I do not think he’s a top 100 guy this time next year.

Kevin S.: Tim Tebow has struck out, popped up or hit a ground ball in a full two-thirds of his plate appearances this season. Can we please stop talking about him being a league-average hitter in AA or saying that he nearly projects as a major league reserve player, as BP recently did? Just stop the madness.
Keith Law: Every time he has a hot weekend, there’s a spate of crap articles saying he’s actually not awful, but no credible prospect outlet has ever fallen for this. He still has one of the highest strikeout rates of any full-season player this year – and nearly everyone above him is way younger than he is. (Pity poor Gareth Morgan.) But the Mets are going to call Tebow up, because that is what the owners want to do.

Tom: Steamer has Juan Soto as the 13th best hitter in the majors RoS by wOBA, sandwiched between Judge and Donaldson. Is that extremely optimistic or do you think Soto is already capable of that? Does he even keeping playing everyday with Eaton? I, personally, don’t see how he couldn’t.
Keith Law: Projection systems can only use the data that are available, and Soto has under 400 pro PA above rookie ball, total. I doubt any system would be reliable working off such a tiny sample of data on a player.

John: What are some college programs that treat their pitchers the right way? We tend to hear only about the bad ones.
Keith Law: Florida, Vandy, and LSU all come to mind right away. There are some smaller ones that just don’t get press … Nate Pearson was very well handled at the College of Central Florida, but of course that’s not a school you will hear about unless they have a top prospect.

Donald: Obviously Max Muncy isn’t this good, but can he be an above average (or even average) everyday player? The eye seems great, and he lifts the ball.
Keith Law: An average player, sure. I don’t think he’s going to sustain a 46% hard-hit rate (via Fangraphs), which would put him right outside the top 10 in baseball if he qualified.

addoeh: Do you think Jonathan India will pass Brian Jordan as the best player with a country for his last name? To be honest, I haven’t done a lot of research on this, only checking Ricky Jordan, Mark Portugal, and Al, Derek, and Greg Holland.
Keith Law: I can’t believe you’d diss Tommy Burkina Faso like that.

Rob: Thoughts on Tyler Stephenson’s season? Does he have a chance to be a top 100 prospect?
Keith Law: If he’s a catcher, he’s a top 100 prospect. I would say the majority of scouts I’ve asked think he’s not a catcher in the long run – he has arm strength, but a long arm stroke, and is a poor receiver. And then the question changes to whether he’ll hit enough to be an impact guy at a position like first base, and I would say the jury is still out on that. (I know the Reds believe he’s a catcher, and I think he’s still too inexperienced to give up on him.)

Rodney: Is my love for Matt Thaiss justified? He’s always got on base, but his 2018 HR total already exceeds 2017’s. Can he be an everyday player for the Angels next season?
Keith Law: He’s in Salt Lake now, a great hitters’ park. I don’t think this power surge is real, not at sea level.

Adam: Worried at all about Albies or is this downswing simply because hes like 12 years old and playing Major League Baseball? Has he shown he can adjust before?
Keith Law: What he did in April was never likely to last.

Adam: What should the Braves do with Fried? Its obvious the team likes Gohara more. Should he be in the pen or traded?
Keith Law: I prefer to see him starting in AAA and waiting for an opening than have him come up and barely pitch out of the pen.

Lyle: Eric Filia, while being something like the 6th-10th best prospect in the Mariners system and is probably in the 20s in the Red Sox system, still seems like a big overpay for a pitcher the Red Sox basically just wanted to get rid of. Thoughts?
Keith Law: No position really, but I do think he can hit and has major league value.

Brian: Keith, I find myself heading to THE BOARD on Fangraphs as well as MLB’s Top 100 pages quite often and was wondering if you’ve been giving thought (or your editors have) to having your rankings somewhere on ESPN. I realize the time and resources that would go into keeping that fresh and updated; just wondering if it’s considered.
Keith Law: I have zero interest in this. It becomes way too prone to recency bias.

Mark: Do you like espresso? If so, how do you drink the sparkling water served with it?
Keith Law: After the espresso as a palate cleanser. I assume that’s your question – like, as opposed to dumping the espresso in the sparkling water?

Jo-Nathan: Is the handling of Mike Vasil closing in on abuse? He was ‘needed’ for the final 4 outs Tuesday as his team was about to blow a 6 run lead, and his coach still planned to start him Wednesday. Lucky for his arm the game was rained out, but he’s scheduled to pitch today. It would be interesting to see a lawyer go after this coach in a civil suit when his arm blows up. Having said that this coach should be fired but instead it sounds like he’ll be celebrated for getting his team this far.
Keith Law: His coach refused to take responsibility for misusing Vasil two days before the start where the kid got hurt, throwing him a meaningless relief inning with no scouts present. If Vasil blows out, I hope parents and administrators look back at how he was mishandled this spring. You can never draw a straight line from misuse to injury, but we can at least point to the misuse as bad process.

Rex: Have you tried the new board game Bofa yet? It’s gotten pretty decent reviews, but I wanted to get your expert opinion before I buy it.
Keith Law: I have been on the Internet since you were an egg sitting idly in your mother’s ovary. You must be really, really stupid to think I’d fall for DEEZ NUTS.

Mark: Do you think a Brad Hand for Kyle Tucker trade is fair for both sides?
Keith Law: HAHAHAHAHAHA no.

Harold Kunz: Do you expect the Cubs to run away with the division this year?
Keith Law: No. Try asking less extreme questions, like, “do you expect the Cubs to win the division this year?” (Yes.)

TJ: So what happened with Liberatore? Teams didn’t know his price so they passed and then he signed for slot anyway?
Keith Law: I think his price was a little high for the teams in the top ten, and then he got to teams his adviser may not have talked to seriously, assuming they’d never get there. I know the Rays had no expectation he’d get to them.

Chris: Have you seen or heard anything about Oakland INF/OF Eli White? Total np coming into the year, did nothing in Stockton last season, but he’s putting up big numbers in AA. Anything there, or just the best 250 AB’s of his life?
Keith Law: Best 250 AB of his life. Not young, .404 BABIP, no previous performance.

Marc (DC): Is Dom Smith still a prospect? How badly has Sandy Alderson mismanaged the Mets farm system?
Keith Law: He’s not a prospect by my definition for rankings, but I still think he has a good major-league future ahead of him if they just let him play. Alderson et al have really worked against themselves with weird promotions/holding players back. Tebow sucks at two levels, still goes to AA; David Peterson rips apart the Pac 12, has to start in low-A and dominate for over two months just to see the Florida State League.

Santiago: Hey Keith, what are your thoughts on Orioles left hanger DL Hall? Ceiling? Likely role?
Keith Law: As is now, mid-rotation starter. Stuff has taken a half-step back.

Alex: Hey Keith, are you swinging by the Cape at all this summer? Fellow Long Islander interning with Y-D and would love to say hi
Keith Law: If I go, it’ll be the last full week of July, before I head to the Silver Unicorn in Acton for a book signing/talk.

Brian: Does Jeisson Rosario have a future as an average regular or more?
Keith Law: Yes, with low probability given his age/distance from the majors.

Sean: What would you say are reasonable expectations for how Loaisiga will perform while Tanaka is out?
Keith Law: He was in short-season ball last year, so I’d keep expectations low. Major-league stuff right now, future starter, not major-league command yet.

Archie: How quickly do you think Bart can get to the majors?
Keith Law: Within two years. Don’t think he’s a fast-to-the-majors guy.

Ben: Why hasn’t there been more made of Ryan Rolison’s advocating violence against President Obama? I realize that this isn’t remotely the same as Luke Heimlich but it would have been absolutely disqualifying for me. Why is he getting such a pass?
Keith Law: I actually don’t think anyone saw it until after he was taken. At least, I didn’t. Also, tip to future possible draft picks: Delete your social media accounts. Like, now.

Brian Anderson: What does my future hold? Rookie of the year this year? Beyond?
Keith Law: Not ROY for me right now. Future average regular.

Don: Do front offices consider it a failure if their top 5 pick ends up being a league average player?
Keith Law: Yes. In some drafts, of course, that’s not really fair – the 2008 draft only had two stars in it.

Chris: Gavin Cecchini is surely better than Jose Reyes, right?
Keith Law: I don’t think you can trust Cecchini on the left side of the infield. I’d love to see the Mets fire Reyes into the heart of the sun, but they would need a backup SS, no?

Brett : Could Kevin Smith develop enough to push Bichette to another position? What is his ceiling?
Keith Law: No, he’s not a long-term SS at all.

Reginald: Do you generally advocate for kids to skip college if they aren’t Day 1 picks but are Day 2?
Keith Law: Depends on what the bonus might be, their financial situation, and what their projection is – if you’re a kid who’s likely to get bigger and stronger in college, that’s a different answer than if you’re 5’11” and maxed out physically.

WhiteSoxAndy: Keith, do you follow the FIFA World Cup at all? (Please don’t respond with the soccer-hating tone that a lot of people I know do. My 2 favorite sports are baseball and soccer – both can be loved!)
Keith Law: With Italy out, I have no real rooting interest this year … and I find it hard to justify watching an event in Russia, bought and paid for by a country that has clearly interfered in our electoral process.

CD: What do you make of Austin Beck so far? Hitting for average, but no power. K rate has improved, but his BB rate has fallen. He’s only 19 so he’s young for the league, but I don’t know if this progress or not.
Keith Law: Power will be there. Not worried about that at all.

KW: Thanks for taking the time to do this, Keith. What are the chances Clemens’ dominance in the CWS leads him to reject the Tigers’ 3rd round signing offer and return for a senior year to chase a higher selection?
Keith Law: Zero. I doubt anyone is that dumb.
Keith Law: Plus he almost certainly agreed to a number already. Backing out of that won’t do him or his adviser any favors.

Jim: I have to confess that, outside of the obvious of being able to sit down together, I’m no overly impressed with the Singapore meeting. However, I’m not sure how muc of that is due to my total loathing of 45. So, style/no substance, impressive accomplishment, or another troubling case of enabling an authoritarian regime?
Keith Law: Right now, just enabling a murderous dictator – giving him the PR boost he wanted, the validation that comes from seeing the DPRK flag alongside the US flag, of seeing a US President saluting a North Korean general. We should judge all leaders on measurable progress, not on pomp and circumstance. (Now, if Trump follows through on ending the federal ban on marijuana, that would be real, measurable progress.)

Jamie: Is this peak Albert Almora and should he play every day?
Keith Law: This looks about right. Not a ton of power but strong AVG, high contact, 70 defense.

Erin: Do you know what’s going on with Jose Albertos? I know I’m not supposed to scout the stat line, but 18+ ERA after 5 starts?
Keith Law: Fairly certain he has the yips.

Joe: Think Loaisiga can hold his own in the bigs at this time? Would it have made more sense to call up Sheffield or someone else?
Keith Law: He was already on the 40-man. Gave him a big advantage.

Jo-Nathan: Is Josh Staumont starting to figure it out?
Keith Law: No. I swear people ask this every year.

Don: Who do you prefer, Nick Madrigal or Luis Urias?
Keith Law: Unfair comparison – AAA hitter with success everywhere vs guy who hasn’t played pro ball yet.

Jeries: Dylan Covey gained almost 2mph on his fastball and is throwing it way more, and is now a groundball machine. Were you ever high on him?
Keith Law: In high school. He was really mediocre in college, never got any better in pro ball.

Brett : Assuming you read the comments made by an NL executive who said Bryce Harper is overrated and a selfish player. Would love you insight on these comments.
Keith Law: I am assuming that cowardly “executive” has spent the last 48 hours furiously deleting all his text messages and emails.

Mike: How much draft day risk is there for a strategy like Toronto’s, where they pass on Liberatore, to take Groshans and then Koffenstein. What if someone took Kloshenstein instead?
Keith Law: Given what they paid Kloffenstein (third time’s the charm), he wasn’t likely to be selected. I think the advisor put word out he wasn’t signing for anything less than that, so teams passed.

Bort: What do you say to people who think bat flips = poor sportsmanship?
Keith Law: go watch golf

Andres: Any listens on the new Johnny Marr singles? Thoughts?
Keith Law: All fine but unremarkable – he hasn’t been great at crafting huge hooks, not since the Smiths broke up.

books: Have you announced yet what cities you’ll be in signing copies of Smart Baseball?
Keith Law: Only DC and outside Boston.

Phillies fan: On a scale of 1-10, how worried should I be about Sixto Sanchez being put on the DL for elbow issues?
Keith Law: Maybe 5. They’re also being super cautious with him. But he’s a little guy who throws 100, so there’s always some concern.

Bort: How fast can Alec Bohm move? Is a 2019 debut unreasonable aggressive?
Keith Law: I think that’s on the extreme optimistic end.

Joe: Do you think of any of the Giants’ collection of lesser/younger arms – Stratton, Suarez, Rodriguez, Beede, Black- can be as much as a No. 4 starter? Or any at least a 5?
Keith Law: A 4 would be a great outcome for any of them. If you mean Ray Black, he can’t even stay healthy or throw strikes as a reliever.

Amory: Devers just have growing pains or has your belief in his ceiling gone down?
Keith Law: He’s 21. He’s younger than Alec Bohm. Come on.

Amy: Is Jordan Beeks a ML starter? Can he be a decent 4/5, or is he just a depth piece?
Keith Law: I think he’s a depth piece, maybe a really good reliever, but you saw in that first inning he threw that there was some deception involved in AAA that didn’t work in the majors.

Brandon: Have you started a list of some kind of the college players you’ll try scout more in 2019 now that the 2018 draft is over? Any Vandy guys towards the top of that list?
Keith Law: I won’t bear down like that until the spring. If I can work in some Cape games, I’ll just go see whoever I see – I don’t target guys so much as just go to games and watch.

Sloan: Madrigal or Moncada as White Sox 2B for the next 5-7 years?
Keith Law: Madrigal is the safer bet. Curious what Moncada would look like in the OF, and I didn’t think he was bad at 3b in the AFL.

Jo-Nathan: Has Bo Bichette improved enough defensively to stick at SS long term?
Keith Law: Nope.

Kevin: After Hjelle signs would he be your no. 2 prospect for SF Giants?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t take him over Ramos right now.

Joe: I apologize if you already mentioned this, but who do you see as the first 2018 draft pick to appear in majors?
Keith Law: With the Tigers having no reason to push Mize, it’ll probably be some college closer like Feltman or Gilliam.

Humble Newsie: Hey Keith, thanks for the chat and all of your work. Do you think of Mejia in the top tier of catching prospects all by himself, or does one of Ruiz, Murphy, Jansen, Smith (or someone else) belong there too?
Keith Law: He’s well ahead of anyone else – but he might be such a good hitter he gets moved off catcher, too.

Chase : Jo Adell’s hitting ability coming around? He’s still not walking, but it looks like he’s adjusted to the Cal League while being quite a bit younger than his competition. I love the dude.
Keith Law: I have no issue with him not walking given his youth and other performance.

Brian: What happened to Buddy Reed? Looks like he’s still striking out a lot at ~25% but he appears to be crushing the ball and playing great defense in High A. what have you heard about him and has he elevated himself on the padres prospect rankings?
Keith Law: No, he’s 24, way too old for high-A, in a good hitter’s park. Age. Matters.

Adam: So Fernando Tatis Jr isn’t a bust anymore. That’s nice.
Keith Law: Yeah but has that one writer decided he’s more than an org player yet?

Paul: Are Folty and Newcomb here to stay as #2/3 starters?
Keith Law: Folty yes. Newcomb no. Hard to project a guy as a #2 starter when he’s barely throwing 60% of pitches for strikes.

Nick: Is Mets farm system not as bad as a lot of people say it is? I feel they have several mid rotations starters (Peterson, Dunn, Kay, Szapucki if he comes back healthy) and several interesting bats (Alonso, Giminez, now Kelenic). Obviously not a top system, but I don’t think that this is the disaster of a group that many people think it is.
Keith Law: I’ve said this for a while. Mets fans have many reasons to complain about how the team has been run, but the farm system itself is not the problem.

Chris: Florial, Andujar and Sheffield for DeGram-who says no?
Keith Law: The Yankees. I wouldn’t do that and I think Florial has been wildly overrated by people who haven’t seen him play.

Matt: Given that Kopech is knocking on the door and the rest of the rotation looks relatively solid with Rodon back, does it make sense to send Giolito back to triple A? Seems like the problem is that he forgot how to throw strikes, not sure if he needs to stay in the majors to fix that
Keith Law: I would; it’s not getting better just by rolling him out there every five days. I can understand them wanting to keep him working with the major league coaching staff on restoring his mechanics, but it’s mid-June and he hasn’t gotten any better since the team broke camp.

Wellington Jones: Bubba Thompson was drafted by the Rangers as one of their toolsy athletes who couldn’t hit. He’s K’ing a lot in A ball, but appears to be drawing a few walks and putting up decent numbers. Is there reason to be encouraged by his start?
Keith Law: “who couldn’t hit” is just wrong. He was raw, but didn’t have a 30 hit tool or the like. He’s a prospect, still raw, making some progress.

XxXxYyYyXxXxX: Rangers fans are up in arms over Texas passing on Liberatore for Winn at 15, when Liberatore signed for below slot. Defensible decision, or did the Rangers blow it here?
Keith Law: I had Winn in my top 10 and Liberatore at 3. For high school arms, that’s really not a huge difference. It’s also quite possible that the Rangers hadn’t spent a ton of time on Liberatore because they figured (as I did) he’d never get to 15.

Rob: Taking the family to the Jersey Shore this year? I’m a fan of the Sea Grill in Avalon.
Keith Law: Never been to the Jersey shore at all.

Brian: No mention of the Mariners in your recent insider article on team’s new top prospects. Is Gilbert anywhere close to the top of their weak farm system?
Keith Law: He’s not #1.

Bill: Josh Naylor seems to be settling in at left field in AA. Will he be the Pads left fielder by Labor Day?
Keith Law: I’d be floored if he were able to play LF at an adequate major league level.

Paul: If you were in Anthopoulos’ position, how would you handle the trade deadline?
Keith Law: If you think you can trade some pitching surplus for major-league help, consider it – they do have a few more arms than they can use in the majors right now, and there are guys like Wright, Wilson, Anderson coming fast. But I wouldn’t go all in, or try to trade for someone like Machado … fans pushing for that are delusional on several levels, not least how much impact one player might have in two months.

Chris: Let’s say Kershaw returns in a few weeks, pitches like his normal self and then opts out. What offer would you be comfortable giving him and would you pay a little extra if you’re the Dodgers given his importance to the organization and LAD’s seemingly unlimited monies?
Keith Law: I have a feeling this is what’s going to end up happening – the Dodgers will offer him more, because he’s Clayton Kershaw. Don’t you have to try to offer him at least an Arrieta-like deal – short duration, huge AAV, in the hopes that he gives you one or two Peak Kershaw years?

Brett : Acuna or Soto long term?
Keith Law: Still taking Acuna there.

Gabe: Do you think the Eduardo Rodriguez will ever be more than a back end starter?
Keith Law: I think he’s more than that right now.

Jesse B: Does Seuly Matias have enough hit tool to be a star?
Keith Law: Right now, no. He’s doing what Joey Gallo did in low-A, but with 2/3 the walk rate. And Gallo is still dancing on the edge of major league value.

Mark: Are there any board games that are two players against the game if that makes sense? Like a couple could play together trying to win against the game (jigsaw puzzle I guess, but fun)?
Keith Law: Lots of cooperative games – Pandemic, Forbidden Desert, Forbidden Island, Flash Point, Spirit Island (I still haven’t played that through), etc.
Keith Law: Oh, Elder Sign. Goofier, still very fun for 2.

Yinka Double Dare: What were the odds on Dylan Covey being the White Sox’s best starting pitcher this year? Velo ticked up this year, throwing a lot more sinkers, walks down, strikeouts up, hard to believe it’s the same guy who gave up 20 homers in 70 innings last year.
Keith Law: I would have said zero odds on that back in March.

Gary: Saw a Rosenthal article floating a Devers for Machado trade. 5 years of Devers seems like too much for a rental, even one as good as Machado. Would you do that from Boston side?
Keith Law: Absolutely not.

Dan: I hate to bring him up again but I’m genuinely curious about what happens to Luke Heimlich now. Two consecutive years of going undrafted and now his time with Oregon State is over. Does he go play independent ball somewhere and hope to sign with a team after some time goes by? Or are his aspirations of playing in MLB over?
Keith Law: Here’s my view on the matter: I don’t want to ever talk about Luke Heimlich again.

Jeries: Who has a brighter future in the outfield if they need to move there, Tim Anderson or Yoan Moncada?
Keith Law: You lose much more moving Anderson than you do moving Moncada, IMO.

John: Verducci had a recent article, advocating for (i) lowering the mound, (ii) limit the roster to 12 pitchers, or (iii) implementing a pitch clock. Any reaction to those proposals?
Keith Law: You lower the mound if you really want to get more pitchers hurt.

Kenny: If a 1st day guys were not going to sign, who is the most likely?
Keith Law: They will also sign unless someone flunks a physical (or the team discovers old tweets threatening to kill the President).

Michael : You had Kyler Murray ranked in the 30s pre-draft, but didn’t seem to have a problem with the A’s drafting him with the 9th pick. Was your ranking affected by signability issues, the fact that he’s a high risk/reward prospect, or something else?
Keith Law: He had ~100 AB total in between high school and this spring. He is very high risk, and high reward.
Keith Law: And he wasn’t close to the lowest-ranked player taken in the first round, either.

Trevor: Where is Kevin Maitan?
Keith Law: Still in extended spring training.

Seth: It’s been widely reported the Giants held a private workout for Bart in San Francisco. Is that typical for guys at the top of the draft to have private workouts?
Keith Law: Yes.

CD: Two part questions – just based on talent, forget football, do you like the Murray pick for Oakland? Also, just your gut feeling, will the pick end up being “successful” for the team and the player?
Keith Law: If I said he has, say, a 30% chance of being a successful big leaguer, I’d raise that to 40% if he’d just play this summer and fall instead of going to get his head bashed in playing CTE-ball.

Joe: Fair to see Witt as similar to Daz Cameron from a few years ago? I.e. a good player who gets a bit overhyped given his bloodline and the fact that his class hasn’t been heavily scouted.
Keith Law: Yes. That could change as we all turn our lonely eyes to the 2019 class.

Sean: Approximately what % of the time are you away from home during the season? Do you find this hard on your family? Asking as someone contemplating taking a job that includes a lot of travel.
Keith Law: I range between 50 and 70 hotel nights per year, concentrated in between Valentine’s Day and Memorial Day. The rest of the summer I do a lot of minor league work from the house – there are seven or eight teams I can round-trip in two hours each way or less.

Michael: For people interested in a career in baseball, do scouts and front office people ever see their families? It looks like most of them are married and have kids, but it’s gotta be tough.
Keith Law: Yes, it’s very hard on families. I travel less than most scouts & GMs do, and I know it still upsets my daughter when I have long trips.

Chris: Lamonte Wade tore up AA and just got promoted. Major league regular for you?
Keith Law: Extra OF for me.

Jesse B: Kevin Smith came out of nowhere. Is he legit? Possibly the BlueJays SS of the future?
Keith Law: Not a SS. And he was a college guy in low-A until June – you can throw out what he did for Lansing.

Keith Law Disciple: I just wanted to say I love you! Please keep doing what you’re doing.
Keith Law: Thanks, but really, I don’t think I could do anything else at this point.

Jake: So, were you of the same frame of mind when President Obama enabled the Iranian authoritarian regime? Going so far as to allegedly help them launder money to get around international sanctions?
Keith Law: but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about but what about
Keith Law: (Also, that story is straight from the GOP.)

Harrisburg Hal: Do you cook, go out or have something prepared for you for Fathers Day?
Keith Law: I’ll cook. I’ve been eating out a lot lately, and have a vacation coming up, so it’ll be nice to cook & have a nice dinner at home.

Jeremy: Do you think the Mariners can keep up with the Astros throughout the long season? Hard to believe the Astros have over a +100 run diff on the M’s and have the same record.
Keith Law: I do not. Mariners might win the WC, but the Astros will win the division.

Jamie: No snark, can you explain how 50 games is small sample size for performance, but 1-2 games isn’t SSS for scouting?
Keith Law: Because scouting isn’t that kind of data. You don’t have the same kind of randomness – a pitcher who averages 94 isn’t going to throw 88 one game and 100 the next. A hitter’s swing isn’t going to vary wildly game to game. A player who’s an 80 runner isn’t going to run average on a Tuesday night.
Keith Law: Skills shouldn’t vary much at all. Performance is the result of the repeated application of skills against the skills of other players. Performance will vary.

Sean: Have you seen Frederick Keys outfielder Ryan McKenna this year? Reports are that he made some mechanical adjustments halfway through 2017, and he’s looked great this year.
Keith Law: I saw him for 2 AB on Sunday before the rainout. I liked what I saw, but would like to see more … the swing is good as is the body.

Chris: Re: the Harper comments. I’m not a Harper hater in the least. It appears he works hard, plays hard, etc. I do however think he is a tad overrated and there are probably 10-12 guys I would draft right now over him. Is that a more realistic and reasonable viewpoint than “he sucks, he’s a loser.”
Keith Law: I wouldn’t agree with you on that, but it is a reasonable, measured position that avoids insulting the player or making unfalsifiable claims.

Marc (DC): When will you be signing your book in DC?
Keith Law: July 14th at Politics & Prose with my friend Jay Jaffe.

Mike: Upside for Taylor Hearn – 4/5 starter or reliever for you?
Keith Law: Reliever. Good one.

John: Saw that you linked to a couple of things about Anthony Bourdain. To what extent were you a fan?
Keith Law: Loved his writing. Not a big TV watcher, so I was never big on his shows. I feel so bad for Eric Ripert, who had to find him, and Asia Argento, who’s been through hell herself the last year and now has to deal with this loss too.

David: Hi Keith! Thanks for not sticking to sports. When can we expect an update to your pizza ranking (unless it’s still up to date)?
Keith Law: Good question. I should add that to the long-term to-do list.

Joshua: What position do you believe Carter Kieboom eventually plays in the Majors, and do you believe his bat will play for whatever position you think he ends up at? Thanks.
Keith Law: Second base and yes.

Brett : From one Father to another, wishing you a Happy Father’s Day!
Keith Law: Thank you – Happy Father’s Day to you too, and to all the dads and dads-to-be out there.
Keith Law: I’m going on vacation next week, so this will probably be the last chat until July (the timing won’t work out well for a chat the week after). Thank you all for reading and for all of your questions – I appreciate your readership, especially at a time like this when I’m creating so much content and dumping it on all of you at once. I should have the top 25 players under 25 ready to go before I leave, so keep an eye out for that as well!

Day one of the draft is in the books and day two has just begun. My thoughts on day one are now up for Insiders. You can also see my last mock for posterity’s sake; I had nine picks on the dot, and flipped Arizona’s two picks from 25 & 39.

Over at Paste my wrapup from PDXCon, where Paradox Interactive announced four new board games based on their popular video game titles, went up yesterday too.

Keith Law: It’s almost over now. Klawchat.

Adam: Thoughts on Greyson Jenista?
Keith Law: A reach at that spot for a player with serious position questions and poor offspeed recognition. He’s on my Big Board.

Chris: As a Giants fan, is my overall attitude of “meh” justified? While they got two players who will contribute (and Bart will likely contribute a lot), it just doesn’t feel like much upside considering they had the number two overall pick and a high second round pick.
Keith Law: It feels very safe, and they have taken four players so far who should contribute sooner rather than later, but you are right that they forewent upside in favor of probability and proximity.

K. Williams: What do you think of Konnor Pilkington? He looks like he has good size and he repeats his delivery well.
Keith Law: Velocity was down much of the spring, especially at this past weekend’s regional. Command guy at the back of a rotation in a best case scenario.

Gabe: In your write-up of Casas, you questioned his power. In other write ups I’ve seen him given as high as a 70 grade on his power. Are you questioning his potential for in-game power or did you get some really bad looks at him?
Keith Law: I don’t care what “other write ups” might say; I’ve seen Casas a few times and talked to plenty of scouts about him. To get him to 70 future power, someone is going to have to work with him on rotating more and getting more loft in his finish.

addoeh: I figure the undrafted high schoolers remaining in your top 100 probably won’t be drafted because of money. But what about the college players that still remain? Is the reason for them down to money? Is it injury concerns?
Keith Law: Could be medicals, yes, or some off-field/makeup thing I don’t know about.

Timothy: After day one which team(s) are most at the mercy of their pool money? Which ones have the most room to splurge?
Keith Law: I don’t track that, sorry.
Keith Law: BTW, college players who don’t get taken high may also be draft-eligible sophomores (Mulholland) or have otherwise told teams they want to finish their degrees.

El Perezoso: Texas has made another one of their high risk / high upside arms, Speas, a reliever / closer and he seems to have found “a little” command (if 20BB in 24IP can be considered “progress”). Thoughts on his potential as a high leverage bullpen arm?
Keith Law: You still have to throw strikes even to pitch in the sixth inning. He’s not close.

John: You commented yesterday that “cold weather bats” are hard to project, or something like that. How far south do you get where that is still a problem? Obviously the Sun Belt guys have an advantage. But is it still an issue in, say, Virginia? Jersey? Is there a clear line, or is it a sliding scale?
Keith Law: It’s a function of how many games those kids play each spring. The further north you go, the shorter the schedule, and the more games lost to weather.

Dan: Thanks for all your work on the draft Keith – I’m sure most people don’t realize how much time and effort you put into this. What are your thoughts concerning Madrigal staying at SS? If he can, would you have concerns over moving Anderson to CF/LF eventually?
Keith Law: Madrigal isn’t a SS now; he’s a 2b.

Tristan: Jays nab two high school teammates in their first three picks. Think an under-slot deal with the first one makes the second one signable? Do you see Kloffenstein as a worthwhile investment if the money is big?
Keith Law: I preferred other prep arms in that spot but I understand what they were trying to do.

Scott of Lincolnshire: KLAW! I know ~100% of 1st rounders will sign, but how many of these round 2/comp picks will sign? Wondering specifically if the Cubs can overpay for their 2nd round pick Davis.
Keith Law: Yes, you should assume they have all already agreed to terms. Now it’s just about passing their physicals.

Arnold: Pretty good job with your mock Keith. Who are you most surprised did not get selected on Day 1 of the MLB draft?
Keith Law: I had heard actual chatter about Wilcox going in the late first round and thought he’d be a pick somewhere before 40; maybe his price went up late. Floored Isbel didn’t go – that’s my favorite pick relative to its spot of all those Royals guys.

Ryan: Feltman 15 innings in the minors then to Boston?
Keith Law: Awfully optimistic there. How many college relievers have actually done that and not sucked?

Ben: Does Siani sign with Cincy?
Keith Law: Teams do not take players this high without deals in place. If you take a kid in the 4th round and he doesn’t sign, your draft pool is *fucked*.

Matt: More surprising – Murray at 9 or Stowers in the 50s?
Keith Law: Stowers was a real reach for me there. Maybe a money-saver.

Alan: The Cards grabbing Gorman at 19 seemed to be a surprise. Any idea why he fell that far?
Keith Law: Could be concerns about swing and miss.

JC: Tristan Beck, just taken, did not make your top 100 – all medical related (including the Stanford pitching problem) or stuff related as well?
Keith Law: Missed all of last spring with a back issue, stuff and results up and down this spring. Really didn’t miss many bats.

WarBiscuit: Any Auburn players/commits that could get drafted in Day 2 like Garrett Wade and Brendan Venter ?
Keith Law: Pretty sure Wade is going to school at this point.

Allan: How much do the Dodgers like pitchers coming off injuries ie Michael Grove?
Keith Law: Grove was up to 96 pre-surgery, but that may also be a below-slot deal to sign Ginn and maybe someone else later.

Dan: Did Blaine Knight slide to the O’s at 87 because of sign-ability concerns?
Keith Law: No, he doesn’t have a ton of leverage.

AGirlHasNoName: What is your opinion on the Cubs draft so far? Seem to be taking guys ahead of where you ranked them down the line.
Keith Law: Yeah, definitely surprised by several of these. Davis I liked, but a round after that, not a 7-figure guy.

Ben: Luis Robert assigned to Kannapolis, rather than W-S. Surprised at all?
Keith Law: I’m 90% certain that’s where I predicted he’d be assigned back in March.

Newt: How much harder was it to complete the final mock with the knowledge that you housed a three-legged predator with murder in its heart?
Keith Law: I live with this fear all the time.

Mike: Thoughts on Yanks taking two catchers with top 2 picks despite a young established catcher in Sanchez
Keith Law: Well catching is hardly Sanchez’s strong suit, and the two they took may both be better catchers in the end. Plus there is so much value in having good catching prospects.

HH: Cleveland has gone HS have the past two drafts, including multiple high picks of 17-year olds. Does that tell you anything about where they see their system, or am I overthinking this?
Keith Law: Tells me more that their draft model weighs age more heavily than other teams’ do.

Mat Ji: What I have read on Triston Casas indicates that he has an OK approach and a fair amount of raw power but has some holes in his swing. Assuming this is true, is this typically a fairly correctable issue?
Keith Law: That’s not what I’ve seen at all. I think he can really hit, but the power projects to maybe 60, not 70-80.

Brian: You had Carter Stewart #2 on your big board – given the high risk associated with prep pitchers is it safe to say that he is the most talented player in the class but was discounted to #2 because of the risk?
Keith Law: No, he was #2 because he was not as good as Mize.

Cooper: What do you think of the Royals grabbing 5 straight college pitchers with their 5 of top 58 picks… and Singer falling to them at 18?
Keith Law: Singer “falling” is relative; I don’t think Singer was worth a top 15 pick. I thought they got a lot of probability with those arms, and given their trouble with prep arms taken with high picks recently, it may be a worthy correction to their strategy.

AJ: Jose Suarez has been promoted twice already with absolutely huge SO numbers (also big BB numbers). Is he a legit frontline SP prospect?
Keith Law: I like him a lot – wrote him up in March – but he’s not a frontline (1 or 2) guy.

Nick: What happened to Nander de Sedas? He was projected to be a top 15 pick preseason, but then I stopped hearing anything about him.
Keith Law: He had a terrible spring at the plate, and I had more than one scout say he looked disinterested. I guess he’ll end up at FSU now.

Steve: Having been picked by the Rays, McClanahan seems like he’s going to end up as Jake McGee 2.0. Fair projection or can he make it as a starter?
Keith Law: I’d consider that an excellent outcome.

Brandon: Has there been anyone drafted that you just don’t know yet? What round does that normally start?
Keith Law: Grove (Dodgers’ last pick yesterday) was the first one.

Noah: It feels like in both the draft and in trades, the Phillies target safe but low upside players that project as back of the rotation players or utilitymen. It seems to be that you’d be better off devoting high draft picks and trade returns on lottery tickets with higher ceilings and find depth players elsewhere. Would love to hear your thoughts on this approach.
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s a fair assessment. Randolph was a high-ceiling bat who hasn’t panned out yet. JoJo Romero was a big gamble that’s paying off already.

Nick: Thoughts on Colton Eastman?
Keith Law: I like him, even though it’s a tough profile. Hitters don’t see the ball out of his hand at all.

Dr. Bob: Sometimes football and basketball players are better off not being drafted in a late round. Much less money and at the mercy of the team with no mobility. Is that true in baseball? Or is being drafted late still better than not being drafted at all?
Keith Law: In baseball, what matters most is what you’re paid, not where you’re taken.

ar: how much do you think about/are you concerned about recency bias and small sample size when looking at draft prospects? it makes sense that evaluations for growing kids be heavily weighted to recent events, but at the same time, the draft board has changed a ton since before the season.
Keith Law: Well, guys do get hurt, they change physically, they have to respond to the extra stresses of the draft season, and more than anything else we scout them more heavily. I saw a few 2019 guys over the course of this spring – Logan Davidson with Clemson comes to mind – but I didn’t focus on him because I was watching other players and chatting with scouts & advisers too. The next time I see Davidson, I’ll be bearing down on him.

Saman: Thoughts on the last two Dodgers’ picks? (Michael Grove and John Rooney)
Keith Law: I’m not really clear where their money is going now, unless they’re going way over on Ginn.

Zach: How much do you think Trackman stuff and makeup contribute to whether or not someone gets drafted? Ie how much stuff does the public not know about that influences where/when a player is drafted.
Keith Law: There are teams that weigh Trackman extremely heavily – Astros and Yankees for sure.

Sergio Q: Padres scouts mentioned that Weathers was hitting 94-95 in his final inning of his last start? Hype or real info?
Keith Law: He did that in a few starts – first outing back in March, at least his final two starts of the spring.

Not Chris: What player has the highest ceiling?
Keith Law: If Mize stays healthy he’s a #1 starter.

Pete: Have you seen Simeon Woods Richardson, the Mets 2nd rounder? Thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Video only. Up to 93, can show great depth on the breaking ball, lands both for strikes, has shown a CH, good athlete and competitor, physically maxed out, long arm swing.

Brian: Does your daughter ever walk by while you are doing a Periscope and wonder what in the world her dad is talking about? I would think that the lack of context around what you are saying would seem really strange for a child.
Keith Law: She’s used to my baseball-speak.

Rally Goose: How much of a reach was Clemens at 3.1?
Keith Law: Was not even a consideration for my top 100, so at least a full round.

Greg: Percentage chance the Reds sign Siani?
Keith Law: 100%. The answer isn’t going to change.

Joe: Do you think anyone takes Kumar Rocker at this point?
Keith Law: Round 11 or later, yes.

Josh: I’ve seen several Orioles fans who are skeptical of the Rodriguez pick make comparisons to Matt Hobgood; be it because of his size, jump in velo, or the fact that he went higher than expected. Is that a fair comparison?
Keith Law: Bad comparison. Really not similar other than both HS RHP.

Allan: Does Jonathan Ornelas have the potential pop to stick at third if/when he’s moved off ss?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jason: What did you think of the brewers’ first two picks? Can Gray make more contact? Was the first rounder SS a reach or a nice pick?
Keith Law: I think Turang gets to the majors on his defense for sure. If I told you today he’s going to have Adam Everett’s career, are you happy with that? You actually should be, based on the pick #, but I would guess most fans would say “no” because Everett doesn’t feel like a first-rounder in hindsight (he was one, 12th overall, and did have a career to justify going in the top 30).

Lilith: Many Reds fans were bummed last night that they weren’t able to get a “Taylor Trammell” or a “Jeter Downs” type player at the top of the 2nd round. Did they just get one with Siani in the 4th? Is my genuine excitement justified?
Keith Law: Yes, based on my rankings that’s exactly what they did.

Bret: Obviously one can’t ignore the past season when evaluating him, but what was Griffin Conine’s scouting report a year ago at this time? What are the odds the Jays can get him back to that?
Keith Law: Clear top 10 pick coming out of the Cape. Then he punched out 70 times this spring.
Keith Law: Someone asked about Stiever at IU in chat yesterday – he just went in the fifth round.

THE Average Sports Fan: India an under slot selection? How many 3b do the Reds actually need\
Keith Law: Fans get fairly stuck on a player’s listed position on draft day; India could end up at 3b, 2b, and I would send him out as a shortstop and see how he fares.

Greyson: Are there any examples of players requiring teams with a poor player-development track record to pay a premium? So, a player requiring an extra 500k to sign with Baltimore, for example?
Keith Law: No.

Brandon: I assume you know your top 100 better than me going back and forth name for name so … who was the first non-ranked player drafted?
Keith Law: Mets took Simeon Woods-Richardson at 48, and the Pirates took Braxton Ashcraft at 51. Both were players I knew but didn’t put on the top 100. Grove was the first player taken I didn’t know, because he missed the whole spring after TJ.

Logan: Opinion on Nick Decker?
Keith Law: I drove up to see him and saw all of one swing in the game. Has power, good arm for a corner, strong kid, seems to know a ball from a strike, but we’ll see when he faces real pitching this summer.

Kev: Hi keith, you’re really effeminate. Love your work.
Keith Law: I suppose this is some sort of insult? You’ll have to try harder than that, bud. You’re talking to a guy who’s worn makeup for TV and done Periscope chats while wearing an apron.

Clint: Would the risk of Kyler Murray playing another full season of football have kept you from picking him in the top 20 of this draft?
Keith Law: I would have insisted on him giving up CTE-ball if I was paying him first round money.

Craig: With Turang, how much of his fall was him being a known quantity for so long that familiarity bred contempt and how much was that his ceiling just isn’t as high as ppl thought it was last yr?
Keith Law: He didn’t perform well at the plate over the last 12 months. When scouts started bearing down, the conclusion was that he’s not the hitter he’d been hyped to be.

Gregory: How would you change the draft to make it more appealing to casual fans?
Keith Law: Trade picks and get more players to the draft.

Jeff Ala: Did the Braves just get a steal in the 4th round with Beck?
Keith Law: No.

Clay, Rutherford : Should I be concerned that the Cubs took Hoerner in the first round, since Stanford has a reputation for messing with hitters’ swings? The recent track record of Cardinal hitters is lackluster.
Keith Law: I had him ranked just a shade below that, more because I don’t see the secondary skills at the plate (patience or power). High contact guy with high baseball IQ too and chance to stay at short.

Trevor : All the 1st round guys got talked up big time. The Dodgers kid not so much. Was that a huge reach in your mind?
Keith Law: Yeah, this is the other issue I have with the coverage – every first round pick was a future all-star, plus tools left and right, ready for the majors in a month, etc. It’s not possible that every pick was a good one. Ginn might have two pitches that grade out as 7s, but there’s disagreement about the delivery – I see violence that might make him a reliever, I know good scouts (not with LAD) who think it’s not a problem and he was maybe the best prep arm in the draft.

Mike: I know this is mostly draft, but you’ve always been a Derek Hill fan. He’s been great offensively since coming back from his latest injury. Have you heard/seen anything about him possibly figuring something out finally? Or should I give up that dream?
Keith Law: Had great reports from last August too, when he was healthy and started raking.
Keith Law: My last look at him this March wasn’t great, for whatever that’s worth.

Brian: Thanks Keith! Only reason I have insider. This may seem like a softball question but how does the draft pool work? Do teams get a certain amount of $ to spend? I’m a tiger fan and there were discussion about maybe signing someone other then Mize so they could do more with their pool? Could be way off but genuinely wanted to know how it works.
Keith Law: Right. You add up your slot values for all of your picks in the top ten rounds. If you don’t exceed that by more than 4.9%, you face no penalty. If you exceed it by more than that, penalties kick in, including potential loss of draft picks.

Jeff Ala: Mize or Kyle Wright higher upside and who would you take right now?
Keith Law: Mize.

Boston: Why do you think Weathers won’t be underslot?
Keith Law: Why would he be when he wasn’t falling very far if the Padres passed on him?

Chris: Will the London MLB games mean a possible visit to London for you?
Keith Law: Hoping so, yes.

Mark: What’s going on with Kumar? Any reason as to why he’s dropped
Keith Law: Vandy commit with big price tag and finished the season poorly, with some loss of velocity and a bad showing in his team’s final doubleheader.

Jason: What do you think of the brewers strategy to draft guys up the middle of the field? CFs, SS all day
Keith Law: That’s where the biggest positional value is.

Dave: On MLB network, they said Seth Beer has had trouble with wood bats. What are some reasons behind this?
Keith Law: Specifically, he hasn’t performed well in wood bat leagues/environments the last two years. (It’s not like, say, the wood bats and he don’t get along.) It’s a great approach with real power, but he doesn’t have exceptional bat speed.

Pat D: Think the Yankees stick to college players between now and Round 10 in order to offer overslot to Green?
Keith Law: I’d expect a college senior or three mixed in from here forward. I wonder if they still try to grab one more over-slot guy, maybe in round 11.

Todd: How rare is it for a player not even on the radar in high school to develop into a viable draft pick in college?
Keith Law: Not that rare. Strasburg went from undrafted out of HS to 1-1 out of college. Mize did the same. Rendon was undrafted out of HS too.

michael: hi keith, how much of a reach is Joey Bart to you? Is there a huge gap between your #2 prospect and Bart who I believe was ~#10?
Keith Law: A modest one. The big gap in my rankings was between Mize and everyone else.

Josh: How close was Kaiser to your top 100? (Don’t kill me if he was on it, I am chatting/reading while in a meeting!)
Keith Law: Wasn’t on it or that close.

Adam D.: How far down that bottle of rum did you get last night?
Keith Law: I stopped after the Periscope. I did have to be alert enough to write up that reaction piece.

Joe: Is it time for Tigers fans to be concerned about Matt Manning? I know he’s young and only in low-A ball, but his command seems to be going in the wrong direction year to year.
Keith Law: You can be concerned, but not to the point of giving up or calling him a bust. Still 20, lots of time to turn it around.

Mike: Is there a Forrest Whitley in this draft? A pitcher taken in the teens who could end up a stud?
Keith Law: Liberatore and Winn would be my guesses.

Allan: How much money did leaving Colorado make Cole Winn?
Keith Law: Maybe a million bucks? Getting away from the altitude, and also moving to somewhere scouts would see him more often.
Keith Law: I’ve still yet to go to Colorado to see an amateur player in 12 years of doing this. Saw Gausman at showcases, and then he went to school. Saw Bird at showcases too (he was Gausman’s catcher in HS). Winn would have been the first, but he moved.

Po: Was reading through your big board of the top of 100 and once again I am concerned about the A’s decision making. It seems they avoid Boras guys and expensive upside guys and take risky and cheap? Am I misreading that?
Keith Law: That isn’t accurate. And I certainly haven’t identified Boras guys anywhere so I’m not sure how anyone would know who they all are.

xxx(yyy): Is there a reason a player should withdraw from the draft? I assume that 99.99999% of the time it is a terrible move but is that wrong?
Keith Law: If a player withdrew for something like religious reasons, or a personal/family matter, then money shouldn’t be a factor anyway and the process could be an unwelcome distraction.

Robbie: As a UGA fan, I watched Keegan Mcgovern hit the ball hard all year, why is he not considered a draft prospect whatsoever anywhere i have read?
Keith Law: He didn’t have that great a year overall, and he’s a corner bat. Might be someone’s senior sign later today.

Slick Rick Hahn: Better OF Prospect, Luis Gonzalez (CWS) or Steele Walker?
Keith Law: Gonzalez, I think. Better tools. Walker had the performance but I knew some scouts who thought he was beating up on lesser competition.

Sean : No surprise that the Nats have focused on pitching in this draft. Any thoughts on the arms the Nats have drafted so far?
Keith Law: Really like their draft through round 4. Schaller is super intriguing – has the frame, body, fastball you want, just hadn’t pitched in two-plus years after TJ.

Kevin: What is your take on the Cape League? Time well spent for prospects and scouts ?
Keith Law: Absolutely.

Chris : I know some Oakland fans are freaking out about the Murray pick, but isn’t the point that he’s one of the very few players in the draft to have actual superstar potential, even if those odds are low and there is some bust potential attached?
Keith Law: I would say that is precisely the point.

Nathaniel: Whats the best/worst outcome for the Mets 1st round pick?
Keith Law: Best outcome is all-star CF. Worst, of course, is that he doesn’t reach the majors.
Keith Law: Cole Sands left his last start of the year with an injury, but the Twins just took him in the 5th round. That’s a mild surprise to me – maybe the injury turned out to be nothing.

Andy: In your last chat, you mentioned some first round guys who weren’t on your thought list for first rounders, and none of them turned out. Has there been a guy that you can recall, that you thought a team way overdrafted someone, that’s worked out well? I don’t mean having Mike Trout not ranked #1, but like a guy who you had 60, went 15, and has been an All Star/top prospect.
Keith Law: Oh all the time. Chris Sale is probably the most stark example; I killed the delivery, he went 13th, probably should have gone top 3. A lesser example is Joe Panik; I had him in the third round by my ranking, he went 29th, has 7 career WAR.

Rob: Not a draft related question, but long term who do you like more, Newcomb or Folty? And do you see the paces they’re both at dropping off pretty hard or are they both close to this good.
Keith Law: Folty. If you asked me to ‘buy’ one right now it’d be him.

Pete: Does Justin Dunn see AA by the end of the year?
Keith Law: I’m guessing so, but I don’t think he *has* to get there for the year to be a success.

Scott: Quick analysis on Beer was that he couldn’t hit w/ wooden bats and projects only as a 1B. Do you agree w/ that assessment?
Keith Law: DH for me. Not a 1b.

Adam: Is Carter Stewarts Curveball of the Adam Wainwright variety?
Keith Law: Literally the highest spin rate ever recorded on a CB.

Turner Watts: Has a relatively high draft pick ever been drafted in June and dealt at the trade deadline of that same year?
Keith Law: Can’t do that. First time these guys can be traded is November.

Doug: Are the Padres saving their money for late picks? Or is Xavier Edwards good enough to justify Weathers over Liberatore?
Keith Law: The gap between Weathers and Liberatore in my mind is just not that big, and I’m sure there are guys who had Weathers higher due to present command.

Andy: Scouting the stat line only, McKay looks ready for AA as a P, but not as a hitter. Now the Rays sound like they’re doing the two way thing with another guy. How does it work that they will inevitably progress differently with the different skills?
Keith Law: I think these situations will resolve themselves because the player will buy in to dropping one or the other.

Rick C: The Braves drafted Rendon out of HS. He didn’t sign.
Keith Law: You’re right – 27th round. I must be thinking of someone else.

David: What are the odds that someone outside of day 1 would be the #1 pick in your with hindsight draft on 2028?
Keith Law: Maybe 1 in 3? It’s happened a few times.
Keith Law: Oh, god, am I still doing this in 2028?

Kyle: Would Royce Lewis have been your top position player in this draft?
Keith Law: No.

BK: Who is Christopher Bec???
Keith Law: Senior sign. I’m guessing way under slot. I prefer his brother Mal.

Tim: I think I know the answer – but is there any reason to be concerned that players in A-ball are hitting Greene too hard? He’s getting Ks but that BABIP makes me worried his fastball is playing down this year. (yes I’m scouting stat line a bit).
Keith Law: I posted his season stats split into first five starts and last five. His BABIP has come way down.

Mark: Hi Keith, non-draft Q here. With the “can’t scout stat lines” caveat understood, anything about apparent improvement from Ryan McKenna at High-A to excite an O’s fan?
Keith Law: I’m hearing very good things about the bat. I’m pissed I couldn’t get out to see him last week in Wilmington because I was working on the mock etc. I’ll try to get him next time.

Craig: I have a good friend whose son is a HS freshman pitcher who is already getting noticed (85-87 MPH, still growing into his body). What’s the #1 piece of advice you would give him to ensure he has a great day 3 years from now?
Keith Law: Take at least 100 days off from throwing every year – not just pitching, but no throwing. And follow the MLB PitchSmart guidelines. even if it means saying ‘no’ to a coach.

Jon: Keith, did you ever play any wargames as a youth, like Avalon Hill produced?
Keith Law: No, board games are my thing but not the longer wargames.

Danny: Have you heard the Yankees have a deal with Hackenberg and do you think they could save enough from their top 3 picks to offer him around $1M?
Keith Law: If they had a deal with him they would probably have taken him already.

Kevin: Let’s say you have seen a player 3 or 4 times….wouldn’t that be considered SSS?
Keith Law: No.

Marsh: Rangers drafted a kid who weighs less than me (but not my much ;)) Is he that good? Easley?
Keith Law: Damion’s kid. He’s actually a good little player. Maybe not a ton of upside but tremendous instincts in the field. Made some money just by playing next to Gorman all spring.

Ted: Experience with a dutch oven? thinking of getting one but not sure how often will use
Keith Law: Love mine, use it all the time for braises and it is the best vessel for deep frying.

Dan: With guys like Singer and Liberatore still available the Orioles reached for Rodriguez at 11. Defensible, or completely mystifying?
Keith Law: I would have taken Liberatore, but not Singer. Don’t understand fans’ abject hate of this pick. Rodriguez may not have been the best guy available but he’s up to 97-98 with a hammer.

Will: What is your comp for Bren Spillane? First guy to OPS over 900 in D1 since Pat Burrell.
Keith Law: That can’t be right about his OPS. And Spillane is 1b only who did his damage in a bad conference. I had him more in the 4th-5th round.

TK: I know he was high on your big board, but should Swaggerty’s lack of production in a bad conference this year scare me as a Pirates fan?
Keith Law: It’s a concern, but if he performs as expected he never gets to pick 10.

Notice me Law-senpai: Is it just me or, apart from the Stewart pick, are all the Atlanta picks after really, really underwhelming?
Keith Law: It’s 3 picks after that. Beck was fine for that spot. I thought Jenista was a reach by half a round, and just don’t love him for an NL squad because of DH risk.

Dave: Parenting question: better for taking a kid to his/her first pro ball game, major league park or minor league park?
Keith Law: Minors, easily, but please get yourself behind the netting.

Jamie: Could you have handled the money, bus rides, culture shock and living on your own at 18?
Keith Law: I was on my own at college at 17 (17.25, to be baseball precise). I survived. But college would have been a way better experience had I been older. I would have made better choices about classes, applied myself more, and gotten way more out of it academically and socially had I been 21 or so.
Keith Law: OK, still got some stuff to do and then I have to start writing up every team’s draft results. Thanks so much for all your questions and for reading all my draft drivel the last few months. All 30 draft recaps will be up by the end of the week!

My fourth mock draft for the first round went up this morning for Insiders.

Keith Law: I’m tired of the excuses everybody uses. It’s Klawchat.

TC: Are there any teams that you feel fairly certain will select a player if he is there? Seems to be a ton of uncertainty a few hours out. Normally there are a few picks that seem cemented the day of the draft.
Keith Law: Nothing is cemented because 1) someone could fall to a team they didn’t expect to get a chance to pick or 2) a likely predraft deal doesn’t pan out, but I think Stewart to Atlanta, Adams to Texas, and Denaburg to Washington all are “very likely if the players get there” sort of picks.

Tom: What percentage would you place on the Tigers NOT selecting Mize 1st overall. Also, if not where is his floor (Phillies at #3?)
Keith Law: I go back and forth on this. Was all the smoke yesterday about them being off Mize mere posturing to get him to take less than slot? (Really, they should offer the slot for pick #2 plus $1, and he should take it, because he’s not getting more than that anywhere else.) I think they probably know who they want, and they probably knew that yesterday, so the correct answer is either 100% or 0%. The answer from outside, without actual information, makes it look like 50/50. So I suppose this is Al Avila’s Cat.

Rico Brogna : If the Phillies land either Madrigal or Bohm (seems they are most interested in a college bat) or even Bart if he falls, how quickly do you think each of these bats gets to the majors?
Keith Law: None is more than two years away. I’d guess any or all could debut late in 2019.

Tom: Hey Keith, where would you rate Casey Mize longterm compared to of Justus Sheffield, Brendan McKay, Bret Honeywell, Sixto Sanchez and Mitch Keller? (My first klawchat question – so proud!)
Keith Law: Ahead of Honeywell (hurt), behind the others.

Richard: On the topic of over-working pitchers at the youth, high school and collegiate levels… Am I off-based at thinking announcers and television personalities deserve a major portion of the blame? Guys like Harold Reynolds praising guys for being “gritty” or “team players” for pitching twice in a collegiate Regional or throwing 120+ pitches in a high school championship game. This instills in our youth that it’s noble to be over-worked, and there’s something “wrong” if you refuse this type of treatment.
Keith Law: Yes, it’s absolutely part of it, and a problem with having only ex-players in booths and no one with a sound front office or scouting perspective to offer.

Alex Failla: Has Pirates OF Calvin Mitchell regained the hype he had prior to his rough senior year of hs? He looks to be driving the ball to all fields again and has been impressive this year 200 PA’s in full-season ball as a 19 year old.
Keith Law: He’s hit very well and impressed scouts I’ve talked to. Position is still a question.

Kyle Huber: What are you hearing for the Pirates tonight? Any chance of one of the top five-ish guys falling to them? Still thinking HS pitching?
Keith Law: Click on the mock at the top of this page and you’ll see my latest thoughts (as of about 10 pm last night, although nothing has really changed yet) for all 30 picks.

Paul Park: Thoughts on OF Z. Watson at LSU? Chances he goes tonight?
Keith Law: Unlikely. Fourth OF type, I think after the third round but someone could pop him there.

Andres: Tranquility Base review. When? Wheeen? WHEN?
Keith Law: I don’t review albums any more and I said a month ago I didn’t like this one.

Andy: Mize doesn’t drop below the White Sox right?
Keith Law: If he gets to the White Sox, then there’s something seriously wrong with his medicals that absolutely nobody has mentioned to me or, as far as I can tell, anyone else who does this stuff.

Matt: Hi Keith. Any chance Indiana’s Jonathan Stiever gets taken before the third round? Thanks
Keith Law: I haven’t heard his name once all spring.

Mr. Patton : My son plays U6 travel ball, and I recently attended one of his practice (typically just drop him off). I stayed off to the side to watch but not interfere. I noticed his coach using language I wouldn’t approve of in-front-of and towards the players. My wife thinks I’m over-reacting, but I’m considering confronting the coach. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Is this a question of profanity, or of language that was derisive or harmful to the players? I understand objections to the former, but the latter is where I’d confront a coach – if he was insulting or demeaning players, or even bullying some.

Patty O’Furniture: You had Carter Stewart mocked to the Braves at 8, after sticking with the Gorman pick for quite a while – is there anybody ahead of ATL that could jump in on Stewart?
Keith Law: The Giants and Reds would be extreme long shots but have shown interest in him this spring.

Mike: Keith, what are your thoughts on Duke’s Jimmy Herron? Seems like people are down on him compared to earlier this year.
Keith Law: Extra OF type. Like Conine, he just didn’t do enough at the plate this year.

ScooterMcGavin: White Sox at #4. I’m worried that Mize and Singer will be taken already. Madrigal scares me a little, reminds me too much of Gordon Beckham. Is India or Bohm a better fit for CWS?
Keith Law: I think Singer gets there, although I wouldn’t take him over any of those three bats you mentioned. I think he’s more Carson Fulmer than Chris Sale.

Tyler: Is Colin Simpson any sort of frat prospect this year? If so, where do you see him going?
Keith Law: I hear the Alpha Betas have strong interest.

Joe: Any chance that the Yankees take Lavigne with their first pick? Seems like that would be a big overdraft based on yours (and others) rankings.
Keith Law: Sure, it’s possible – they may think we’re all too light on him. Cold weather bats are hard to evaluate, and Lavigne’s value is entirely in his bat, not his glove or legs.

JB: With neither Hankins nor Rocker listed in your mock, is the consensus that they’ll go on over-slot deals in the comp round?
Keith Law: Yes. Likely both, Hankins more likely.

Jo-Nathan: How much money, if any, would it take for Kyler Murray to sign and give up football?
Keith Law: You’d have to ask him. Even if I had that dollar figure – I don’t – disclosing it here could pose problems for the kid’s eligibility.

HH: How many draft-eligible pitchers are good enough to pitch in the majors later this year (even in pen)? How does that compare to the average draft?
Keith Law: I think Mize could, in relief. A few college relievers probably could too, guys like Mulholland way down my 100. Singer maybe as a right-handed specialist.

Frigga: i know teams typically draft BPA. However do they break the BPA down by position? Or is BPA just the player that will provide the most value either on the field or via trade?
Keith Law: Up top it’s BPA. Maybe in the fifth or sixth round that starts to break down and teams would split their pref lists by position.

Tim Ackins: Re: Heimlich. He fulfilled his legal obligations based on the sentence he accepted. Is it ethical to insist on placing further punishment on him that the state did not seek in their plea? Or am I too concerned about the difficulties faced by ex-convicts once they serve their punishments?
Keith Law: No one is insisting on further punishment, at least not around here. You can’t jail him now after the justice system has finished with him. I object to him gaining the privilege of playing professional baseball, on the basis of what he has admitted to doing, and how he put many scouts’ and baseball execs’ livelihoods at risk by failing to disclose the guilty plea last spring until he was outed.

Andrew: I keep reading reports that the Tigers are undecided on who they’re taking. Is that likely a bluff? I remember your review of Trouble with the Curve (shout out for convincing me to not watch it), where you eluded that teams usually know reasonably before the draft who they want.
Keith Law: Right, I think they already know.

someguynamedkenny: What are the odds Alec Bohm ends up being able to stick at a position other than first base long term?
Keith Law: Maybe 35%. I think he’s a better athlete than people realize from his body, but he’s a big boy for 3b.

JP: Not draft related, but what do you think about the Yankees potentially boycotting ESPN interviews because of a scheduling dispute?
Keith Law: I’ve never heard about this but I also don’t really do those interviews.

Chris: Call me crazy but I think Tigers would be dumb to take Mize. This is based on unpredictability and higher likelihood of arm injuries for any and all starting pitchers.
Keith Law: OK. You’re crazy. Any selection depends entirely on who else is available; if Mize, discounted appropriately for the risk of any pitcher, is still the best value available, as i believe he is, then you take him.

Jay: If Bohm and India are sitting at 6, which way do the Mets go?
Keith Law: I think India. But I also have them taking someone else over those guys.

Matt: Have you ever considered actually going to Secaucus or been there, if so, could we get a rundown on the fine dining establishments there?
Keith Law: I went to the draft two years ago. MLB & MLBN people were all wonderful to deal with, but there wasn’t any real advantage to me in being on site.

Robbie: At what point can I start to to be encouraged by the angels’ drafting capability? Do I have to wait until there is Major league success or should I at least look at the prospects they drafted last year and be excited they have added or kept their value?
Keith Law: oh, you can now, for sure. Much improved the last two draft classes.

Tortoise Joe: You mention Adams to the Rangers — there is a line of thought among some Ranger fans that drafting toolsy high ceiling athletes hasn’t worked for Texas, and so they need to start going a different direction. Is that a reasonable critique?
Keith Law: Adams is toolsy and high ceiling, but he has also shown some feel to hit already. He’s way better than Eric Jenkins.

Brian: How similar is Matt Liberatore to Mackenzie Gore? Are they similar type of lefties regarding stuff and potential or only similar in that they are left handed?
Keith Law: No, just that they’re lefthanded.

Chris: Saw you retweeted Wursthall this morning. you planning on making it out to the Bay Area to scout anytime soon?
Keith Law: I’d love to eat there, but I didn’t retweet anything from them. I was in SF in March but probably won’t be back this year.

Aaron C.: Appreciate your candidness on the challenge of putting out mock drafts. Since you’ve been doing this, has a team ever made a first round pick of someone who wasn’t anywhere on your radar?
Keith Law: Yes. Cubs with Hayden Simpson – not on my top 100, and someone had to remind me who that was when it happened, because the little I had on him was so bad that I had dismissed him from my mind. Same year, Yanks took Cito Culver, whom I knew but expected wouldn’t go till the 4th round. Rangers took Kevin Matthews in 2011 at the end of the first or early comp and he was another guy who wouldn’t have been on my top 200 if i’d gone that far. I had virtually nothing on him either; he was released after 2015 and walked almost a man an inning in the minors.

Neal Huntington: Who should I take if Liberatore, Winn Gorman and Kelenic are there?
Keith Law: They won’t all be there. My Big Board (top 100) is updated; I would tell any GM who called to take the best guy.

Joe: Hearing any possible locations for Nick Decker?
Keith Law: No, but he might go later today in the second round.

Brian: How many players in this draft do you see as being top 100 prospects by years end?
Keith Law: I think the historical average (for my lists) is about 13-14 each January drawn from the most recent draft. It varies more by MLB graduations than by the draft classes themselves, I believe.

Chris: Drew Parrish coming back after a 2 hour delay and ALREADY throwing 108 pitches is scary. How do college managers live in such a bubble?
Keith Law: There are few if any consequences. Now, if a Florida State recruit withdrew his commitment today because he saw how Parrish was abused, that would get some coaches’ attention.

Dave: Keith, lot of talk about the TCU coaching situation…Schlossnagle staying, pitching coach Saarloos may be leaving. How does that impact Kloffenstein and what are the chances he goes pro?
Keith Law: I’ve heard he’s a very tough sign. Shame if Saarloos is gone so soon – I thought he might be a good moderating influence on Schlossnagel, who has seen a lot of arms break down in his tenure there, and I think bears responsibility for at least two of them (Purke and Winkler).

EL: Can Bart play anywhere else but catcher (in case the Giants draft him)?
Keith Law: You don’t take him if you’re not going to catch him. Posey is 31 with over 800 games caught in the majors. His future at that position is limited now.

Chris: Is it just me, or is this draft weak compared to recent years, especially at the very top?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s weak up top, and I think it’s very deep in prep arms and outfielders, but it doesn’t have the slam-dunk names we’ve had in some recent years. I think it’ll end up a productive draft though.

Jimmy: What do you usually do during the draft ? Watch at home ? Do you eat a nice dinner while watching ?
Keith Law: It’s varied by year, depending on where I am. I’ll be home this year so I’ll write, tweet, maybe do a live video something, have a lovely beverage. I’ll eat dinner before the first pick though – roasted a whole pork shoulder yesterday so there would be plenty of leftovers.

Dan: How likely would it be for the Phillies to offer an overslot for Mize at #3 that’s over the slot for the first two picks? Does not having a second or third round pick make that any more or less likely?
Keith Law: Doing so would essentially require punting much of the draft, then. They don’t pick again till the 4th round, so they’d have to go under slot a few times and would almost be pulling a Ricky Williams draft.

Ralph: Why do college (baseball) coaches bunt so much? I’m genuinely interested in the thought process. Are they typically oblivious to modern baseball tactics? Bunting runners from 1st to 2nd in the first inning seems to be a ‘go to’ play for most teams
Keith Law: College and high school coaches who call for hitters to bunt in the first inning are secretly telling you that they can’t teach hitters how to hit, so they teach them how to bunt instead.

Jim: Is there any substance behind the rumor of Mize falling to three? Or was that just a hypothetical in your mock?
Keith Law: Not a hypothetical.
Keith Law: Sorry quick delay for a draft-related phone call
Keith Law: I’m back. That was interesting, mostly for yet another person saying he didn’t know what the Tigers’ decision will be at 1.

Freddy: What are the knocks on Carter Stewart? Seems like everyone agrees he’s mid 90s with a plus curve, athleticism and likely to stick as a starter. What are the negatives?
Keith Law: Prep RHP have one knock against them to begin with. He also lost a little velo at the end of his spring due to a wrist injury, not a serious one. I still have him at #2 overall on my board.

Dave: Keith, how hard is it to decipher what MLB draft rumors are legit versus what are smokescreens? Specifically with something like the Giants taking Winn at #2?
Keith Law: Bobby Evans went to see Winn. That’s not a smokescreen.

Chris: Any chance Lenny Torres hears his name called today? If so, when and by who?
Keith Law: Yes, after the first round. It could be the Royals at 33/34, but that’s probably the top of his market.

Jimmy: Where is Torkelson projected ?
Keith Law: To go back to school, since he’s a freshman and not eligible to be drafted.

Sean: How do you get new info today? Do you have insiders at specific teams who let you know, or do you just hear “through the grapevine” of scouts, reporters, and FO people who let info out?
Keith Law: Phone has been buzzing on and off all day.

Tim Ackins: I love Cal Raleigh’s bat. Any chance he can stick at catcher or is he bound for 1B?
Keith Law: Enough chance that I think he’ll be drafted as high as the mid-2nd by a team that intends to leave him there.

Carl: In a hypothetical situation, let’s say the Heimlich being an admitted child molester story wasn’t reported by the media, but a team doing its due diligence on him discovered it. Is that the kind of information that a team would share with other teams considering the severe nature of the crime and his own admission of guilt, or would whichever team discovered his guilty plea keep it to themselves and quietly remove Heimlich from their draft board?
Keith Law: I think that news would leak very quickly. In your draft room, you have at least ten people, maybe twenty-plus if you bring in all your area scouts, who’ll know that and see the magnet come off the board. There’s no way ten people in this industry keep anything a secret.

Mike: Do you believe teams are getting better at drafting? Are there fewer 1st round busts and fewer late round surprises than there would have been 10-20 years ago?
Keith Law: I think so. Some is smarter drafting, including using stats and analytics as a tool in the process. Some is not throwing 19-year-old Bill Pulsipher 200 fucking innings in one minor league season.

Dave: Keith, is deal-cutting by the Padres and Braves really going to drop both Liberatore and Gorman to the A’s at #9?
Keith Law: I don’t have either of those teams cutting deals with the players I projected to them.

GIO: Two part question – How does Bart compare to Zunino at the same point of their careers? Do you think Bart can be better than Zunino has been up to this point of his MLB career?
Keith Law: Zunino had more hit tool at the same point, Bart has more raw power and might be a better catcher (receiving, game-calling).

Jon: Any Andrew Benintendi in Travis Swaggerty?
Keith Law: No.

Nick: For weeks it seemed like the Mets were locked into taking India and now you don’t even have him mentioned as a posibility for them. Any reasoning behind this?
Keith Law: They were never locked into taking him.

Parts unknown : Which top prospect is most likely to end up being described as a “gamer” or being “gritty”?
Keith Law: Madrigal. 5’7″ 155 pound white middle infielder who isn’t a plus runner.

Bren Spillane: Could I be drafted tonight?
Keith Law: Unlikely, not a zero chance. College 1b in bad conference.

Nick: What type of power do you see Jarred Kelenic having as a pro? 15+? 20+? 25+?
Keith Law: Homers? If he hits enough to get to the power it’s 25+ homers.

Jimmy: Where did you have Mickey Moniak ranked on your big board when he went #1 ?
Keith Law: I think fifth? I said at the time I wouldn’t have taken him first – I had Corey Ray 1.

Brian: Thoughts on Madrigal’s size for a top 3 pick?
Keith Law: Short doesn’t bother me. I don’t know if he has the hand strength to make enough quality contact against major-league pitching. He’s short, but also somewhat slight, at least compared to guys like Bregman, who is short but strong.

Coach B.: I know you don’t get around to scouting this level, but are there any NAIA names to watch for today/tomorrow?
Keith Law: Not on my radar, but I’m certain there are such players for rounds 5-10 (tomorrow), which for NAIA is still a pretty good outcome. I kind of wish the NAIA would position itself a bit more as an alternative to the NCAA – hey, come play for us, use an agent, transfer without penalties, etc.

Dave: Keith, heard a lot of people mention Durbin Feltman as potentially the first to the Majors pick this year, kinda like fellow TCU pitcher Brandon Finnegan did. How likely do you think that kind of scenario is, and any idea who might be targeting Feltman?
Keith Law: If he goes, maybe as high as the second round, it’ll be like that – take him now and advance him quickly through the minors. Of course, both Burdi brothers were supposed to be like that, and neither has seen the majors yet around TJ … and TCU’s track record of pitchers in pro ball isn’t great.

Alex: Is Kyler Murray something to pay attention to today, or is he just a name people recognize?
Keith Law: He’s on my top 50.

Lilith: Kyler Murray: He struck out a ton this year, despite his improvement. Why is he so sought after?
Keith Law: He barely played in the last two years, and “a ton” is an overstatement.

Matt: I totally understand why you don’t think Heimlich should be drafted- and I agree. But if Aroldis Chapman can sign for $86 million, what’s stopping a team like the Yankees or Cubs (Chapman, Addison Russell, etc) from drafting him?
Keith Law: Nothing. If you have talent, you get picked. And I would guess at least one team would try to use his guilty plea and the scarlet letter on his magnet to sign him under slot – take it or leave it, nobody else even wants to draft you – and use that to sign someone else they like.

Dave: Keith, what’s the likely percentage that a top 5 college bat (like Madrigal or Bohm) fall to the A’s at 9?
Keith Law: Mize goes ahead and at least two high school players go ahead, I think, so there’s one scenario where all five go ahead and a bunch of scenarios where at least one gets to them.

Mark: Any chance the Padres take Murray at 7? Seems like 2 years ago everyone thought Quantrill was going with their second pick, but they took him at 8
Keith Law: I considered that possibility and you’re right – it could happen, as it did with Q. But I also think they feared Q wouldn’t get to 23, while Murray could very well get to 38.

Andy: One of a baseball players secondary responsibilities is dealing with fans, especially younger fans. I can overlook a player being an a-hole in general, if he gives my kid a ball. I can honestly say I don’t know how comfortable I would be with my 5 year old interacting with Heimlich.
Keith Law: Imagine you’re a GM or team President and you decide, after doing your due diligence, to take Heimlich anyway. Do you send him to children’s hospitals with other players? To in-store events where kids might appear? And if he does re-offend, are you ready for the PR backlash and perhaps a lawsuit? There’s so much to consider here for any front office that can even get past the moral questions around the selection.

John: The Phillies last 3 first round picks all look highly questionable. What do you make of their scouting department as a whole and their top guy? Have they just been unlucky? Also, please convince me they won’t take a middle infielder with no power at #3 if Mize and Bohm are still on the board. Thanks
Keith Law: I’ve said before I think their first round picks have been disappointing and their picks from the second round on have been much better, above average compared to other teams, I think.

Tom: If you could quantify it on a 1-10 scale, how big is the separation between Mize and singer.
Keith Law: The only way I’d take Singer over Mize is if you told me Mize had a current medical (arm injury, back issue) problem that Singer didn’t, and to the best of my knowledge, that’s not the case.

John: What’s stopping MLB from allowing full pick trading?
Keith Law: It has to be collectively bargained.

Travis: How high do you think Austin Becker goes? Does the Vandy commit scare some teams?
Keith Law: He’s going to school. I’d be floored if anyone took him in the top ten rounds.

Bill: How does Parker Meadows compare to his brother Austin?
Keith Law: I addressed that specifically in Parker’s writeup. He’s not as good as Austin was at the same age.

Jimmy: Do teams try and strike pre daft deals with leverage of bad market teams drafting right after them that a player would not want to go to ?
Keith Law: No, that doesn’t work.

Mark: Where would Hunter Greene have been ranked in this year’s draft? #1?
Keith Law: I would probably have him 1, although Mize, as a guy who’s further along and less risky than a 17-year-old pitcher, would give me pause.

Steven: Can Naylor remain a catcher or is he destined for the infield?
Keith Law: He’s not a catcher any more. Third base is most likely.

JP: whats your favorite place to watch a game in the Cape Cod League?
Keith Law: To watch, probably chatham, although it’s not great for scouting.

Greg: Regarding Simpson, can you think of another first rounder who was out of pro ball (non-injury/jail-related) after only two years?
Keith Law: Aaron Akin was the 12th overall pick in 1997 from a Kansas JC, and was out of baseball before the end of 2000. That’s kind of my gold standard for a fast washout.

Brian: Worst place (food/location/weather/etc.) you visited in your scouting destinations this year?
Keith Law: I did pretty well this year with that part of the gig. I mean, Florida’s no great shakes, but I’m never going to have a year where I don’t go there.

JR: you have a post-draft vacation planned? If so, where too?
Keith Law: Europe. Going to take my daughter for the first time and also go visit my cousins.

Thomas: If you had to pick one position player and pitcher you’re really high on and think the rest of the industry is sleeping on, who would they be?
Keith Law: I said in the top 100 I’m higher on Naylor than the industry (I think). Not sure I have a pitcher with a comparable gap – am I higher on Wilcox than most?

Nick: As a rare Yankees/Jets fan, should I be concerned about another Hackenberg potentially coming to New York?
Keith Law: If that’s a football reference, I don’t get it. But that kid’s name always puts Prince’s “Pope” into my head.

Ryan: Oh please do a live video, I will mute the TV and also maybe join you in the beverage having.
Keith Law: Maybe I should go to the liquor store first.

Matt: Is there a chance Tristan Pompey sneaks into the supplemental round or is he a 2nd rounder?
Keith Law: Yes, supplemental is reasonable.

Adam : In your most recent mock you have the Giants passing on Mize to save money to go over slot for someone later. The only way they do that is if they have an agreement in place with someone they have specifically targeted, correct?
Keith Law: Probably, although you can’t guarantee player number two gets to pick number two.

Tom: Re: Stewart very likely to Atlanta if he gets there rather than the previous connection to Gorman. Is that a function of your information getting clearer, an evaluation change in the scouting department, or something else?
Keith Law: Better information – which often means the team did something that put the information into the marketplace. There are no evaluation changes this late in the game.
Keith Law: (If there are, whoa boy, time to find a new scouting staff.)

Tyler: Any way mariners go prep at 14?
Keith Law: Any way, yes. Likely, no.

Ben: Who are the Boras guys in this year’s draft?
Keith Law: I can’t and won’t jeopardize any player’s eligibility by disclosing adviser information or revealing confidential medical information.

Dan: In a general sense, how do players become ‘below-slot’ guys? Do their agents just say, “let’s be honest, you’re not a top three talent BUT you can go at #3 if you take this underslot deal?” How do teams and agents/players determine whether a player is worth a slot bonus?
Keith Law: Advisers call around to teams to gauge interest in their players. Then if the highest-drafting team with interest calls and asks for a deal, you know what your best alternative is (BATNA for you fellow MBA dorks), and you can take a dollar figure that’s more than the next-highest team will offer but still a discount for the team that called.

Po: read you mock and loved it. My question is who SHOULD the A’s take if available
Keith Law: If Liberatore is there, I’d take him.

Carl: Recipe for the pork roast?
Keith Law: 6 hours at 275, another 30 minutes at 300. Used my standard rub for a smoked pork shoulder but the weather sucked so I did it indoors.

Jesse B: Can David Fletcher be an everyday regular at 2B for the Halos? Also, how legit of a prospect is Kevin Smith? Thanks
Keith Law: No on Fletcher. Not really on Smith.

Patrick: The Baltimore local reporters all seem to expect the birds to take a position play at 11, probably an infielder. Are you still hearing them on pitchers?
Keith Law: I’ve heard pitchers more than hitters with them all spring.

Jo-Nathan: Is Tim Cate better off returning to school for a senior year or do players lose too much leverage as seniors for it to make sense (I can’t think of a time where this worked outside of Mark Appel)?
Keith Law: No, he should go high enough to make signing worthwhile. Plus, Coach Penders at UConn can’t seem to stop mishandling pitchers.

Tim: Wouldn’t a correct change be Schrodinger’s Al Avila instead of Al Avila’s cat?
Keith Law: Well, for Al’s sake, I hope nobody opens the box.
Keith Law: That’s all for today, but we’ll do this again tomorrow when we have something real to discuss, instead of all of this speculation. I’ll try to do some sort of video chat tonight after the draft starts, and I’ll file a day one reaction for Insiders later tonight. Thanks again – enjoy the draft!

My latest mock draft went up this morning for Insiders.

Keith Law: I can tell just by the climate, and I can tell just by the style. It’s Klawchat.

John : As a White Sox fan, I’m been more focused on the minor league prospects than the big league results. I’ve heard some info on “Super 2” status for Kopech and Eloy that says that Kopech’s Super 2 date is in June and Eloy’s is in July. Is this information accurate and why would the dates be different?
Keith Law: That’s some incredibly bad information. There is no specific “super two” date – it varies each year, and we don’t know the date for year N until after year N+2 – but it would be the same for all players who currently have 0 days of service. I also think it’s really dumb for fans to worry about this beyond wondering when a player would be called up; it’s not your money, and in the grand scheme, unless the player becomes a star, it’s not much money to the teams, either.

GS : Thoughts on Twins prospect Kirloff? He’s raking. Mid-season promotion or do you wait because it’s his first season back?
Keith Law: The argument for promoting him is that he’s 20, and not young for low-A (not old, either). You might want to challenge him with high-A competition before the summer is out.

John : Thanks for “Smart Baseball”, I think I learned more from that book than my previous 30 years of listening to announcers! Luis Gonzalez (White’s Sox’s 3rd round pick in 2017 out of New Mexico) has been having himself a nice season down in Kannopolis. But he’s a college guy repeating Low-A. Should I temper my enthusiasm or is he someone to keep an eye on?
Keith Law: He’s 22 and shouldn’t be in low-A. He’s a prospect, but his stats this year are kind of worthless for evaluating him.

Greg Bird is The Word: Considering Hicks is a FA after 2019, & Florial is a ???, if the Yanks signed Harper, could he handle CF mostly full-time? If he still has a Mantle fascination, they could give him # 77 & sell him on playing that position. And throw $400 million at him, of course…
Keith Law: I think he can handle CF, but my question would be whether that would increase the chances of him getting hurt (covering more ground, plus he still plays like his hair’s on fire).

Chris: Any opinion on what Ross Stripling is doing? It only ~50 innings, but it seems it would be hard to fake a 30% K against a 5.6% BB.
Keith Law: Stuff is unchanged, but he’s throwing a lot more strikes. I don’t think he’s close to this good, because the stuff isn’t any better and not going to miss that many more bats, but if he’s throwing strikes at this rate (and thus not walking guys) with the stuff he does have, he’s probably a 3rd-4th starter.

Candice Bergen: I’m guessing CBS is praying that no old videos of me in blackface praising Hitler surface.
Keith Law: And audiences everywhere are praying they do.

TJ: Would you even comment on what round Heimlich would be on talent alone or is it immeasurable given the other very serious issues?
Keith Law: I think he’s undraftable, and will voice my criticism of any team that chooses to draft and sign him. I do not give a single, solitary fuck how good a pitcher he might be.

addoeh: Is there anything funnier in baseball, or maybe sports, than watching members of the bullpen sprinting in like an eight year old chasing an ice cream truck because of an argument between the two teams? Bonus points for the bullpen catcher in full gear running in. It’s sillier than a goalie fight in hockey.
Keith Law: It just prolongs the agony of watching the ‘brawl’ (that often is less a brawl than a show of something or other). If you leave the bullpen during a fight, automatic five game suspension.

TJ: How come there aren’t public metrics on minor league WAR?
Keith Law: I don’t think those stats are terribly useful for minor leaguers; we want prospects to show certain skills, and care about their ages relative to their levels, but a minor leaguer who posts a high WAR or wOBA or wRC+ isn’t necessarily a good prospect. Chase Vallot posted wRC+ of 140 and 136 the last two years in low- and high-A, respectively, but wasn’t much of a prospect at all because his hit tool is so far below average. He’s now got a 76 wRC+ in high-A with a Tebowesque strikeout rate.

Adam: Who wins a foot race between Buxton and Acuna???
Keith Law: Buxton is the fastest player in the majors.

Krontz: What’s the better Shane Beiber comp . . . Josh Tomlin or Kyle Hendricks?
Keith Law: Bieber has much better stuff than Tomlin.

BE: As a Tigers fan, how concerned should I be about Avila passing on Mize?
Keith Law: The industry is still betting they take him.

Mark: Do you have any intel on guys the Padres are targeting for later rounds (yes I read your mock)? Did they acquire the extra pick with that CF in mind already in mind?
Keith Law: I think they acquired the extra pick with a lot of guys potentially in mind. You can’t guarantee someone will get to your second pick, but waving extra money around might help, and it means you can then take a better guy when your pick does arrive. It wouldn’t shock me if they took someone like Hankins who slips on signability + injury concerns.

Nick: Is there a stat that factors in level of competition faced? Example: Clevinger facing Houston in back-to-back starts vs. Ohtani’s start vs. the Yankees being skipped so he sees the Tigers?
Keith Law: I know BP has listed aggregate stats of batters faced (so you can see the triple-slash line of a pitcher’s opponents).

James: Hi Keith, thanks for these chats. I can only scout the statline here, but would you say that Jonathan Hernandez is arguably the best pitching prospect the Rangers have (with Cole ragans out right now anyways)?
Keith Law: Who’s his competition at the moment? Ragans is out, Matuella has a 9+ ERA, Speas can’t throw strikes, Cody is out, even Crouse is out.

scott: Hi, Keith. how do we explain what is going with guys like Charlie Morton? 34 yrs old and seems to be getting better. is it a new pitch? something the Astro’s coaches do better than other pitching coaches? thanks
Keith Law: Changed approach in that month he was in Philly, and the Astros kept it going. Stopped trying to sink the ball, went with more four-seamers up.

Mark: How does the process of trying to get a player to “slide” in the draft work? Does a team tell the player they will pay them x amount of $, and the player then tells other teams that’s the floor of what they’d take?
Keith Law: Exactly. Don’t take my guy because he won’t sign for less than $2 million. Sometimes it works, sometimes Anthopoulos says screw you, I’ll take who I want.

Andrew: Thanks for all the work Keith, including the latest mock. I know you have Winn at 2 to the SFG, but what would you do if you were Sabean / Evans? Take Stewart because he’s your best player available?
Keith Law: I’d make an offer somewhat below slot to Stewart and Liberatore (my #3) and see who takes it. You do want to be able to go over at pick 45 and grab someone else of first-round caliber.

Krontz: If MLB expands to 32 teams, what’s your favorite setup then? Eight divisions w/ four teams each where division champs make playoffs and no more Wild Cards?
Keith Law: Worse. That will give us another sub-500 division winner.

Derek: Adam Eaton is heading on a rehab assignment and scheduled to come back next week. What should the Nats do upon his return? It seems clear that Harper, Eaton, and Soto are the three best bats and should play most of the time. CF defense would be a problem, but the extra offense more than makes up for it, in my opinion. Who of those three would you stick in CF? I can make a case for and against each one.
Keith Law: Soto can handle CF.

barbeach: Keith: Love the chat and the other posts–and bought and loved your book. Thanks so much for all that! Dom Thompson Williams on NYY High A team is a dinger machine early on. (I know, SSS) But is he someone we should keep an eye on?
Keith Law: He’s 23 with a .263 OBP since his promotion and ~40% K rate, so that’s a no.

Dave: How would you handle a situation like Felix Hernandez in Seattle. Guy is a Mariners legend, and locked into another year at $27 million, but is clearly hurting the team when he pitches. With all that mileage on his arm, he’s not going to become elite again.
Keith Law: Do they have a better option for his rotation spot? I may be forgetting someone, but if they do, then they need to just replace him.

Brandon: Would Mize rank in your top 50 MILB after signing?
Keith Law: Yes, my #1 prospect in every draft class has been a top 50 prospect when I’ve done the list in July.

Pete: Austin Meadows, Gleyber Torres, even Ronald Guzman … all showing a lot more more HR pop in the bigs than they did in the minors. Has to be the baseball, right? Also, is Meadows a star if he stays healthy?
Keith Law: Definitely the baseball – now we know something’s different. But Meadows was just not very good in AAA, and it’s foolish to disregard that and assume his 50 AB in the majors are the truth.

Derek: If you were a fan of a team that decided they were going to draft Luke Heimlich, what would your reaction be? Even knowing that there’s a chance that he flames out in the minors and never gets called up, my gut reaction would be disappointment and I’d be praying that he never gets called up.
Keith Law: I’d call the office and cancel my season tickets or say I’m done spending money on the team.

Michael: Hi Keith- I am confused about why more hitters don’t try to beat the shift by bunting or going the other way. Especially in a high leverage, late inning situation when you need baserunners. What’s the deal here? “Hit ’em where the ain’t”, right?
Keith Law: I’m confused too and have no answer.

Kevin: What’s the ceiling/floor of Cole Winn?
Keith Law: Ceiling is #2 starter because of control/command of above-average but not elite stuff. Floor … well, he’s a HS pitcher, the floor is that he never sniffs the majors, unfortunately, but I’d bet he does more than that.

Kevin: Who do you expect to be some of the overslot draft picks in the second round?
Keith Law: If you compare my top 100 to my mocks, any HS kids I have in the top 40 or so who don’t go in the first round are obvious targets for over-slot deals. Siani comes to mind. Seigler, Thomas, Scott, Hankins, Rocker could all go over slot in the comp round or second. All good prospects with strong commitments to good schools.

Justin : Did you watch the Americans? If no, any plans to?
Keith Law: I’ve never seen it.

Andy: I think it’s finally time for you to admit to your burner accounts. You’re actually tweeting under the name CJ Nitkowski right?
Keith Law: I’ve been trolling Lebron and the rest of you for years as Skip Bayless.

Joe Don: No question, just thanks for doing these. Best chatter in baseball. I’ll hang up and listen.
Keith Law: Thanks!

Archie: You mentioned that Madrigal is likely a sure fire big leaguer. How long do you think he will take to get there?
Keith Law: Late 2019.
Keith Law: Remember he’s probably still regaining strength after the hand injury. Same for McCarthy at UVA.

Steve: Hi Keith, do you think Jason Martin is a starter in Pittsburgh? He’s never not hit.
Keith Law: Extra guy. Limited to LF, don’t see the power to profile there.

MuellerTime: Winker to the bench – dumb move, or dumbest move?
Keith Law: Dumb developmental move. Would have helped his own cause with better performance, but still, this kid is part of the future.

BE: Reports are that Christin Stewart is making strides on defense. Can he play LF in the majors?
Keith Law: I have always thought he could play a passable if below average LF.

Santos: I don’t understand the argument in favor of Rizzo’s slide, or breaking up a play on purpose in general. If a player ran into a first baseman on purpose on their way through the base, everyone would agree that’s a dirty play, so why do some people think it’s OK to do that same thing, but use your legs instead? How is it different? The competition in baseball is not about physically overpowering your opponent.
Keith Law: I said on Twitter even if it was legal it was not acceptable. I’m glad MLB ruled it illegal, but now they have to warn him and then suspend him if he does it again.

Andy: Do any teams voluntarily pay minor leaguers more? I’m just thinking that if there’s a late round high school kid, not a huge bonus, but you’ll get 10k per month in salary may convince him.
Keith Law: Only minor league free agents.

Ryan: Are there any similarities between Nola and Singer coming into the draft? Believe you had Nola rated higher with his command and movement on pitches. Phils haven’t had much success with high draft pick position players. Read Gilbert could be a possibility.
Keith Law: There’s some delivery similarities, but Nola is better across the board – more flexible, better command, better changeup. I like Gilbert a lot but he’s probably a reach at 3.

JR: Anything you think MLB could do to better promote the draft and make it a bigger media event (assuming they want too)? I realize there is only so much they can do given a lot of the players being drafted are high schoolers (and even the college guys aren’t on TV all the time like their NCAA basketball/football counterparts) that the casual fan knows nothing about.
Keith Law: Trades. Allow trades. It’s so simple and no one will push for it.

Russ: Tirso Ornelas is acquitting himself nicely at for age 18 in High-A. Is he a potential top 50 type prospect down the line?
Keith Law: I think so although as a RF he has a high offensive bar to clear. I believe in the swing.

Erwin: What do you think of Dennis Santana? SP long term?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen him since March 2017, and the only scouts I know who’ve seen him didn’t see him in Tulsa, but we all had him as a reliever coming out of last season. Two pitch guy with lower slot. He is, however, a converted SS and relatively new to pitching, so maybe he’s something very different this year. I’m hoping his debut comes soon and not on Monday night so I can see it.

JR: Who do you predict makes it the MLB first from this years draft?
Keith Law: I have to do a column on ‘superlatives’ and that will be one of them. Mize isn’t a bad bet, though.

TJ: Do you think there is ANYthing suspicious about the resurgence of all of these Astros pitchers at the same time?
Keith Law: No, Trevor, I don’t.

Russ: Cavan Biggio’s breakout reminds me of Kingery adding HR pop out of nowhere last year. Do you buy Biggio as a regular in the bigs?
Keith Law: Where does he play? Kingery is a 7 runner and 7 defender at second. Biggio is none of those things.

Aaron C.: I’m sure there are much better examples, but can you help me understand why teams draft/acquire players (ex. Casey Meisner when Oakland got him) and then immediately tweak/change what’s ostensibly been working?
Keith Law: Nope, I don’t get it. I understand changing what hasn’t been working, and that’s a great way to find hidden value.

JT: The rumour or speculation was spread on Twitter that Meadows is seeing the ball better in the better light MLB parks. That sounds, well, like BS. How do you think the Pirates accommodate their OF?
Keith Law: That is … baseball pseudoscience? I am fine giving Meadows an opportunity but still don’t think they should give up on Polanco.

addoeh: How long before the draft would potential draftees and teams start exchanging dollar figures?
Keith Law: That’s already sort of started with asks from players/advisers but the serious stuff starts Monday.

Gavin: I know you don’t follow other sports, but how many current NBA players could you name? More than 10?
Keith Law: Lebron. Curry. Durant. Kevin Love. Westbrook. Isaiah Thomas (that’s almost unfair, isn’t it?). Irving. um … that Kristaps guy on the Knicks, because wasn’t SAS horribly wrong about him and I keep seeing it on Twitter?
Keith Law: oh, Carmelo Anthony.
Keith Law: I think I’m tapped out there.

Max: Weird situation with Vasil and thanks for your article on him. Makes no sense for him to opt out. Wouldn’t the concern of future injury lead him to believe that if he can get life changing money with an overslot end of 1st round deal, it might be worth more than going to college now? Also, what is preventing a team from trying to do this? Should every team be calling him to see what he says on draft day, in case he changes his mind and will accept such a deal?
Keith Law: UVA had another player, Brandon Neeck, withdraw from the draft too. Maybe the coaching staff has something to do with this? And maybe MLB needs to step into this process.

Stan: If you drafted Tanner Dodson, would you send him out as a pitcher, a hitter, or let him do both and see what works best?
Keith Law: Sounds like pitcher is the belief. No reason not to let him hit a little this summer, since all college pitchers are on restricted schedules their first pro seasons anyway, and see what happens.

Tony: When will Forest Whitely be ready for the MLB?
Keith Law: Later this year. Just came off suspension and still hasn’t pitched in a game.

Dave: Hi Keith thanks for the chats, I look forward to them every week. Thanks too for Smart Baseball, really enjoying it. He’s getting 13.4k’s per 9, giving up 2.6 walks per nine and has an ERA of 2.76 in AAA, all improvements from 2017. He’s also scrapped his slider and introduced a cutter. At the risk of scouting the stat line and relying on a relatively SSS, is Jalen Beeks more than just a guy?
Keith Law: He had the cutter last year too. His results are great, but all scouts I’ve asked have him as a reliever.

Juan Soto: Am I exceeding your expectations?
Keith Law: It’s been ten games. There are no expectations for a sample that small.

Jim: Keith, thanks as always for the chats. According to the Transactions page on ESPN, Minnesota “Traded RHP Phil Hughes, cash and the 74th overall draft pick in 2018 to San Diego for C Janigson Villalobos”. How is that draft piece in there?
Keith Law: That draft pick is the only reason the trade happened. The Padres just got an extra $800K in pool money.

Pat: Hoe much does spin rate RPM matter? Ie a 95 mph fastball, but one has greater spin rate. Does it matter more on breaking pitches?
Keith Law: Very high or very low spin rate on a FB makes it more effective. Dead-average spin rate and average velocity is a hitter’s favorite kind of fastball.

Ray: Is your position on Heimlich and other offenders that you don’t want them to be in a job that has influence over others or just that they should never have a meaningful job? I’m speaking more from the standpoint of what to do with rehabbed offenders that aren’t high profile.
Keith Law: I cover baseball. My position is that no baseball team should employ someone who did what he admitted he did.
Keith Law: (It’s also worth mentioning that the idea that every offender can be “rehabbed” isn’t well supported by science. I think it comes more from theology – there’s certainly a strong strain in Christianity arguing for forgiveness and second chances, but there are some paraphilias that just can’t be fixed, and that should play into our views on how the justice system and society should handle people who’ve committed such crimes. But for me to go from there to say that such a person should never be employed anywhere would be beyond the scope of what I know on the topic.)

addoeh: I’ll guess your NHL player list. “Crosby, Ovechkin, and, umm…, is Jagr is playing?”
Keith Law: Bossy, Potvin, Goring, Tonelli, Bill Smith, Trottier, Gillies, Sutter, Chico Resch!

Thomas: Your prospect work is second to none, but I’m curious if there are any MLB guys you’ve enjoyed watching develop this year? Anyone who has been a pleasant surprise for you? You must at least be happy to see Jurickson Profar getting some ABs.
Keith Law: Yep. Soler, Mazara, Snell too.

Santos: Jim’s question was how can MN trade a pick if trading picks isn’t allowed?
Keith Law: Ah, I didn’t follow. Competitive balance picks are tradeable. No other picks can be traded.

Cletus: Ryan Mountcastle an MLB regular?
Keith Law: Yes. Not sure at what position.

Orville Overall: Hans Crouse was out? I thought he was slated to join Spokane when the Northwest League starts up.
Keith Law: Biceps something-or-other, I believe. Spokane doesn’t start for 3 weeks, so he may be back by then.

Ryan: What if Heimlich got a full pardon from Trump, like Dinesh D’Souza did? Then can he play ball? Seriously, D’Souza – WTF?!
Keith Law: D’Souza, who helped out closeted LGBT students at Dartmouth and loves to repeat the conspiracy theory bullshit that Soros was a Nazi collaborator (he wasn’t; he was 14 when WWII ended). Twitter needs to just kick him and his ilk off entirely.

Justin : How do you feel about the way baseball is discussed on general sports show on your network? On PTI for example there is a particularly disdainful attitude toward analytics/wins and RBI are still the measures of a player…
Keith Law: I don’t watch any of those shows, sorry. I don’t think I’m in their target audience.

Jonathan wants to know: Please provide a comp for Jonathan India, please? Thanks!
Keith Law: I don’t do player comps, sorry. I find them generally misleading. It’s part of why I don’t do player tool grades either – they became shortcuts that people tend to focus on to the detriment of the scouting reports as a whole.

Jason : I know you were high on him prior to the season, but has Adell answered the questions about his ability to make consistent contact? Where do you see his ceiling?
Keith Law: So far, yes. Could be a superstar with those tools and this (surprising) contact rate.

Tom: Can Spencer Torkelson be a GUY, or is he just a guy?
Keith Law: Just a guy.

Matt : How often do you go to games in the Cape Cod league? I’ll be out there in June and I am deciding if it’s worth a one of my few nights out there.
Keith Law: I love the Cape, but haven’t been the last two years for various reasons.

TJ: Triston Casas – playable at 1b for a bit or is he a near term DH?
Keith Law: Fine at 1b, not good there, but not Vogelbach.

curt: Thought on Drew Waters from the Braves? Top 100 come winter?
Keith Law: Top 100? The bar is really high for that. I don’t see him anywhere close.

Gene: Keith, love the chats. I’m a depressed O’s fan and an English Comp teacher. I’ve always enjoyed your book reviews and wondered if you had any good banned novel title recs that I might incorporate into one of my classes. My students already read Faulkner, Atwood, Chabon, Morrison, Toole, Vonnegut, Hemingway, etc.
Keith Law: Color Purple gets listed often as a banned/challenged title. A quick google search tells me Grapes of Wrath is often challenged – maybe for the final scene? (GTFOH, people.) One Hundred Years of Solitude is an amazing book often challenged. Are your students too young for Lolita? While very often banned, it’s not actually explicit – it’s disturbing AF, but that’s part of its power.

The Great Alonso “Bohm”?: Are you a believer in what Peter Alonso is doing in AA at age 23 and if Bohm were to slip to the Mets, would they take him knowing they already have Alonso (plus Smith who is trying to play OF)?
Keith Law: I am a believer in Alonso, and Bohm would be in their mix but perhaps not their top choice. I think I can come up with six names I believe they’d take over him (which includes guys like Mize or Bart, who go before them in any scenario).

Chris: Do scouts look hard at level of opposition in minors? Like if a top prospect is belting all of his home runs off non-prospects, does that lessen his value? Or too hard to quantify?
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely.

Scott B: As a Red Sox fan, now living in Delaware, I was able to catch Salem this weekend in Wilmington. I came away unimpressed with what I saw. Any prospects of note that maybe had a bad weekend?
Keith Law: That’s a bad team.

Tom C: I spent too much time thinking about Molly Knight’s question the other week about who is the most famous current MLB player. My immediate thought was Jeter, which, umm.. Anyway, I went with Aaron Judge based on 1) plays for NYY, 2) hits home runs, 3) has really cool name. Who would you say?
Keith Law: I think Harper or Altuve. Altuve’s surprisingly well known … I run into people who profess they’re not fans of baseball but know him or ask about “that short guy in Houston” or something like it.

RW: Can an NL team draft Seth Beer with hopes that maybe he fits in at 1B or, wishcast on him in LF?
Keith Law: They can do that. There is no rule against them doing so. There’s also nothing stopping me from laughing at them.

Chris: Have you heard anything from scouts about Richie Martin? Is this just some random SSS, or has he rediscovered his swing from The Cape?
Keith Law: Guy repeating the level, plays 34 games this year, with 82 last year of awful performance. I’m not saying this year isn’t different, but the evidence before us should discourage you.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Are you a fan of Vonnegut?
Keith Law: Yes. I read every novel of his but the last one, I believe.

Jim: Hate to whale on the moribund equine, and can take this to the comments later, but the transaction notice doesn’t say “compensation pick” (as they usually do), and the 74th pick comes out to late second/early third round. That sounds like a regular draft pick, unless I’m missing something.
Keith Law: It is the last pick in the Competitive Balance Round B.

UGW: Let’s assume Harper and Machado both get 10 yr, 300 million dollar deals. Given that both will be entering age 26 seasons, will these deals be a net positive for the team in your opinion?
Keith Law: Yes. They may not fare well in the last few years of the deal (but they still might given how great those players are), but they’ll work out just fine.

mike sixel: Keith, do you drink Rye? If so, recommendations for mixing rye?
Keith Law: It makes a fine Rye Old-Fashioned. That’s about all I know about it.

JJ: Never been a huge fan of Vonnegut’s books, but his cameo in Rodney Dangerfield’s “Back to School” was spectacular.
Keith Law: Salvaged the entire movie for me.

Corey: speaking of the Boston farm system, other than Pawtucket as a solid true taxi squad but with few rising prospects , the system overall looks bad. obviously you want a strong farm but given how young + stacked with longer term players the MLB club is and will be for a few years, i shouldn’t feel that concerned right ?
Keith Law: Right. The system is down (yo), but two big reasons are all the promotions to the majors, and the trades that brought in Sale, Kimbrel, and, well, the ghost of Tyler Thornburg.

GIO: I know Swaggerty gets comped to Gardner by some, but Gardner was just a slap hitter when he first came up. I more see Kiermeier in the swing and the set up. What ‘ya think?
Keith Law: Right, Gardner came into power after he got to the majors (I think the ballpark helped, because he realized he could drop the bat head and almost golf balls out to right). Swaggerty is trying to hit like that now, and it’s meant more homers but a worse average and a higher strikeout rate.

Paul: Free case of Oreos if you answer my fantasy question. I bought low on Goldschmidt. Any optimism that he gets it back on track this year? Where do I send the Oreos?
Keith Law: Any optimism would be based on past performance; he’s not just been bad this year, but seems to be trending worse, as if something’s physically wrong with him (there is no public evidence of this, I’m just saying that’s how bad he’s been). I’m also wondering where you’re getting all these Oreos.

Chris: Isn’t the downside to teams trading draft picks, that we would see a lot of picks dealt to large market teams for salary relief (thinking about the Dbacks trade of Arroyo a few years ago..and that was before the Brain-trust arrived in Miami)?
Keith Law: Arroyo was traded with Toussaint to clear the salary, so that’s already happening even without trading trade picks. However, the argument that you broached is the one originally made in the 1980s to support banning trades of picks. The environment has flipped today where most low-payroll teams would much rather acquire picks than deal them, because draft picks remain the highest ROI way to add players to your system. It’s a screaming bargain when you hit on one, so I doubt any semi-competent GM is going to just deal away these picks on a regular basis.

Chris: What is stopping a team from telling Mize “listen we pick 20th, but we’ll blow our entire draft budget on you, and draft all senior signs besides you?
Keith Law: He wouldn’t fall that far. There’s only so much you can do, especially with a college junior, whose leverage is limited; he’s certainly not returning to school next year.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat. I will post yet another mock on Monday morning and then chat that afternoon to discuss the draft, which begins Monday evening. I’ll also be hosting the BBTN Podcast on Monday while Buster is traveling, so we’ll be talking mostly draft there as well. Thanks so much for reading and for all of your questions!

My ranking of the top 100 prospects for this year’s MLB draft is up for Insiders. Over at Vulture, my ranking of the 25 best mobile board game apps went up last week.

Keith Law: It’s just a change in me – something in my liberty. Klawchat.

Spencer: Corey Ray recent performance is reminding me of what made him so intriguing coming out of L’Ville. Obviously a SSS, but what do you think his ceiling as a prospect is nowadays?
Keith Law: Seems like an everyday player, but the chance of him being much more than that is very slim. I’m not sure who changed his setup at the plate, or why, but it cost him a year of development time, and he hasn’t totally regained what was lost.

Bill G: Hi Keith. Given the extreme shifting and the lack of offense, would you support a rule that forces teams to start infielders on the dirt? Seems like the “rover” in the OF is hurting offense more than stacking infielders on one side of the field. Thanks as always for doing these chats.
Keith Law: No, I don’t. One, I think hitters should be more comfortable dropping bunts or shortening up to push groundballs to vacated areas. Two, there’s some research (Russell Carleton has covered this) that the shifts are less effective than they first appear to be.

Jc Cuevas: Is there place in an outfield for a guy like Brandon Nimmo to start? Or is the dreaded SSS? Ty Keith
Keith Law: He should be playing every day vs RHP, and that was true on Opening Day. Of course, the Mets will probably sign Gorman Thomas instead.

David: How likely are the Phillies to maintain their current winning percentage over the course of the season? Also, your thoughts on Kingery’s play so far and what you would do with Crawford when he returns from the DL? Back to AAA or starting SS? Thanks.
Keith Law: They’re not going to win 60% of their games this season. Very few teams do that in any given year. Crawford should be the everyday SS.

Dan: Keith, what’s going on with Giolito? He’s shown flashes during his time with the Sox but getting concerned about his consistency. Anything to worry about long term or just a young pitcher finding his way?
Keith Law: He was great in March, and it seemed like when he left spring training he left all the gains he’d made mechanically back in Arizona. I don’t know if it was the cold, or some undisclosed physical issue (not an injury, but maybe soreness that led to a change), but he’s been totally out of whack all season. His velo is down and command is gone right now. I can’t see rolling him out there as a starter right now until they’ve reestablished his delivery.

addoeh: I see there are more high schools players in your top 10 big board than your mock drafts. Is the difference down to personal preference (maybe higher ceiling vs higher floor) or purely that college players may sign for lower figures? Or something else entirely?
Keith Law: Teams fear the risk of HS players. I get that, but I also think the safety of college players is somewhat overrated. Look at what Haseley and Pavin Smith are doing in high-A right now.

Harrisburg Hal: Do you listen to albums in order (tracks 1-X) or shuffle? I’ve been shuffling ever since i started to listen digitally. I feel like I’m in the minority when talking to others.
Keith Law: In order. I figure the artist intended that.

Todd Boss: What do you think of Tampa’s “opener” strategy? Do you think a team could really try to do an entire staff of relievers? Isn’t that kind of the logical end-game of today’s move towards high velocity short inning reliever focus?
Keith Law: I wonder if teams will respond to this by tweaking the tops of their lineups and eliminating any such advantage. I do like the experimentation, though. Tampa has been so short of starters anyway that they had to do something creative.

Jay C.: Keith, Given Austin Meadows’ impressive SSS performance, does he have a chance to stick w/ the Pirates when Marte returns? How would you project his overall ceiling now after a fairly lackluster minor league career…any changes from your initial assessment?
Keith Law: It’s 25 at bats. you might as well roll a couple of dice.

LexSteele: If you were running the Giants’ draft, assuming the Tigers take Mize #1, who would be your pick at 2?
Keith Law: That’s what my top 100 represents – my personal draft board, based on what I’ve seen (I think I’ve gotten more than 40 of those top 100 in person, the rest are from video + talking to scouts).

Andy: I fully agree that there is a problem with the justice system in this country. The justice system absolutely railroads people into pleading guilty in order to get them through, especially poorer minorities. There are many fundamental issues that should absolutely be debated and rectified. I just don’t think that a white guy who pleaded guilty to doing something untoward with a 6 year old relative is the hill I’m going to start that fight on.
Keith Law: I’m with you. The fact that he was even offered such a deal, with no jail time, is indicative of the privilege of his race & background.

eric: what would a good cardinals package for machado be? you think bader, knitzner, Hudson and helsley get it done?
Keith Law: That actually feels light at the top. It’s a lot of quantity, but I would assume baltimore would want a deal with a better headliner even if it means fewer players.

Andy: Can you imagine how badly the Padres would be doing without Eric Hosmer and his veteran leadership? I mean they would almost assuredly be in last place, competing with the Marlins and Reds at the bottom of the NL.
Keith Law: He actually hasn’t been that bad at the plate, at least – but it’s been irrelevant to them, and by the time they’re good, he probably won’t be.

Rick: Have you seen/ heard any updates on Haseley over the past month? Is this just a blip or has he possibly turned a corner after a rough first year?
Keith Law: I just got a report the other day from a scout who saw Clearwater and had nothing positive to say about the bats on the roster – not Haseley, not Moniak, not Gamboa.

Andy: In NBA and NFL draft circuits, there are a number of guys who rise in the draft based on they look in workouts. Their measurables are huge, but they don’t really impress much in game. Kelenic seems to be a baseball version. He looked good last summer, and now is looking good in basically workouts. Could this lead other players to basically work out for a year instead of playing in a less than rigorous high school baseball season that could expose actual flaws?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’ll ever be widespread, but for kids who play in weird environments – cold weather states, states without HS baseball or who only have it in the summer – it could make a ton of sense. However, such players lose out on the benefits of playing real games in a team environment, and scouts lose the opportunity to see how the players react to real game situations.

Rick: Just wanted to say I bought your book last week on Amazon and already finished. It was great. Thanks for writing it.
Keith Law: Thanks! I’m thrilled you liked it. It makes up for that alt right meanie who said he’d never read my “damn book” this morning.

Jo-Nathan: Any chance you move Vasil up on your board after his clean two innings?
Keith Law: Two whole innings? Wow.

Trixie: What is the funniest book you ever read?
Keith Law: Gosh, that’s a good question. Jasper Fforde’s books have really made me laugh out loud in a way that few other authors have. Wodehouse too.

Matt: Been watching Josh Stowers tear it up for Louisville this season. Top-200 kind of guy this year?
Keith Law: Top 200 yes. Interesting combination of a little pop, some speed, probably CF in the long term, doesn’t have the present hit tool of some of the other college CF in the class.

George R.: Fernando Tatis, Jr’s April: .177/.231/.333, BB 6%, K 33% May: .340/.427/.649 BB 10%, K 26% And he’s still 19 in AA. Can people chill out with the doom and gloom talk?
Keith Law: Yep. We do this every year. By the way, i saw Bloom from MLB is still killing the Padres’ system, including Tatis. I don’t get that at all.

Justin: Hi Keith, With HS/College pitchers throwing excessive amounts of pitches in games. What would be the reaction from MLB front offices if the kid decided he was done at a certain amount of pitches and took himself out of the game? ie looking toward his future instead of one game. Thanks and have a great weekend.
Keith Law: Teams would be thrilled. They know who’s been overused, and they often slide such players down slightly on their boards.

Matthew: You’ve previously stated that baseball is mainly just a job for you, and that your hobbies lie more in the other things you write about. If money were not an issue for you, which subjects would you continue to write about, among your many published interests (baseball, books, movies, board games, music, cooking, etc.)? Would you keep writing at all?
Keith Law: I’d definitely keep writing. If I won the lottery (which I don’t play, because lotteries are a tax on people who suck at math), I’d still keep up the blog.
Keith Law: I’m not sure I’d keep writing about baseball if it weren’t a job, because I would be afraid I’d no longer be good at it if I weren’t pursuing it full time.

Slidepiece: Just curious, have you ever participated in a fantasy baseball keeper league?
Keith Law: Not in more than 15 years.

Tim: Hey Keith did you get a chance to listen to the new Arctic Monkeys album yet? Very different sound for them.
Keith Law: The good news is that if you liked “No.1 Party Anthem,” the new album contains Party Anthems Nos. 2-12.

Larry: Would Gorman still be your pick for Atlanta?
Keith Law: Yes. Could also see Singer there. They loved Vasil before the injury; not sure they’d do that at 8 now.

Swag: Thoughts on Welington Castillo’s suspension and apology?
Keith Law: I couldn’t care less about the suspension. The apology was surprisingly straightforward. That’s as close as we’ve gotten to an actual admission.

Greg: Can you talk me into liking Nolan Gorman? Contact questions, no clear defensive spot. I just don’t know what makes him in consideration for top 10 teams?
Keith Law: He has the most power of anyone in the class.

Mac: Is Jonathan India in play for the White Sox at 4? If he can play 2B does he have a higher ceiling than Madrigal?
Keith Law: I think he’s probably on the outside for them but in consideration. By that I mean that he’s probably not in their top 4 (I think, it’s not like they showed it to me), so it’s very unlikely he ends up their pick.

Matt: If you were running the Jays when would you call up Vlad Jr.?
Keith Law: I liked Buster’s idea of calling him up to DH when they trade Donaldson. Right now, he should be in AAA, but they also should either make it clear to him he has to improve on defense to get a callup, or just move him to a position he can credibly play. He’s no better than a 40 defender at third right now and probably less.

WarBiscuit: Mize has seemed to struggled(for his standards) in 4 of his last 5 starts after yesterday and past his innings of 85(college+USA) already. Concerned? And could this caused him to slip slightly from 1?
Keith Law: Not concerned. He hasn’t really struggled either; the start vs Florida he was outpitched by Singer in the box score but looked much better to scouts.

Andrew: I’m terrified the Tigers are going to take a bat instead of Mize. Is this concern valid?
Keith Law: That they might do so? Yes. That it would be a mistake? That’s debatable. I would take Mize. I don’t have a pick or a budget.

Sal: Peterson, Kay, Dunn, Alonso…cause for cautious optimism for Mets fans? What kind of GUY is Alonso?
Keith Law: Yep, most of the healthy guys are faring well at the moment. I saw they put Dom Smith in LF in AAA, though, which is … interesting, and not in a good way.

Bret: Which Cardinal OF prospect are you buying long term as an every day player, if any…Bader, O’Neill or Mercado? I’m personally bias towards Mercado. Thanks.
Keith Law: Mercado has the most upside. Bader’s a regular. Still see some real swing and miss concerns with O’Neill. He’s also the worst defender of the 3.

Joe: When will Brendan Rogers be up?
Keith Law: Next year? I’m not sure there’s an impetus to get him up sooner.

Jordan: Nick Dunn from University of MD a first day guy, or return to school guy?
Keith Law: There’s an ocean in between those two options and he’s in it. Probably 6th-10th round.

Mike: Dennis Santana a major league starter? If so, more back-end or something more?
Keith Law: The performance this year would indicate starter and he has two pluses in the FB and breaking ball. What I do not buy is the sudden flip in his platoon split.

Bill: Love the chats, will finally be getting around to your book this summer. What are your thoughts on Shane Bieber’s ceiling?
Keith Law: Lack of huge stuff might mean a league average ceiling but the command is very real and should help him pitch well above what the radar gun might indicate.

Mark: Do teams emphasize certain pitches? The fangraphs Padres prospect list seemed to have the changeup as the best offspeed pitch, is that organization specific?
Keith Law: That’s been a Preller fetish going way back to Texas. He loved signing DR/VZ kids with arm strength and a changeup.

Alex: Was recently reading the UZR section of Smart Baseball – with how much shifting there is now, is that stat essentially meaningless for assigning individual credit/blame because the historical data is so different?
Keith Law: I believe UZR still omits plays listed as having shifts, but you’d be better off asking Mitchel on Twitter (he’s very responsive) about how he’s handling such plays now.

Mac: Who’s the guy moving up draft boards that surprised you the most?
Keith Law: Schnell. Power is real, good athlete for sure. Not a CF, big arm bar at the plate. Curious whether his above-average speed lasts – his body type seems more likely to settle in as average speed as he gets bigger & stronger.

Dan: Chances that Schwarber wins the Gold Glove? His #s are looking pretty, pretty, pretty good.
Keith Law: Defensive numbers in ~50 games are really not meaningful.

Greg: Any concern about Kyle Wright this year? Numbers are extremely mediocre for a college arm who was in consideration at 1.1.
Keith Law: No they’re not. He’s in AA – most college players are in high-A less than 12 months out of the draft.

Dylan Bundy: Why do the Orioles trot me out for the 9th inning of a 9-3 game??
Keith Law: I have no idea. Letting him go 8 at just over 100 pitches seemed fine. I’m sure they had at least one reliever who could get three outs without giving up six runs. Given Bundy’s history of elbow and shoulder problems, plus the way he faded last year after a few weeks when he was very good and worked harder, they should be extremely cautious.

Joe: Your Kepler vs. lefties prediction looks good so far, but do you think his numbers vs righties will improve?
Keith Law: Yes.

Aaron C.: So…of all the players you’ve ever scouted — who actually became successful major leaguers — who had the worst swing as an amateur/minor leaguer?
Keith Law: Pedroia comes to mind. Max effort, kind of straight uphill.

Marc: Listened to the rest of the CHVRCHES album? Overall thoughts?
Keith Law: I’ve heard five songs and none are good.

addoeh: Are the people who defend Heimlich that say “I hope I’m not judged on the worst thing I ever did” subtlely admitting the worst thing they ever did approaches molesting a six year old? I hope not.
Keith Law: It’s amazing how people will tie themselves in knots to defend the kid with nary a thought for the victim.

Ed: Hi Keith. A few years ago I made your Guiness Stout Cupcakes and everyone agreed that they were some of the best we’ve ever had. Recently, when I asked my wife what kind of birthday cake she’d like me to make this year (we have a tradition of making each other’s cakes from scratch), she said the best, moistest chocolate cake possible. After thinking about it, it crossed my mind to use the guiness recipe, but for a traditional 2 layer cake instead of cupcakes. 2 Question for you – any reservations about doing this? And if you did it, what changes would you make to the temp, baking time, recipe, etc. Thank you so much!
Keith Law: Drop the temp 50 degrees. Line the cake pans with parchment circles and then butter them. I think everything else would be fine. Cupcakes really are just mini cakes; the recipes tend to work the same way.

Joe: Heard anything about David Fletcher? The numbers are outstanding
Keith Law: The numbers are in Salt Lake, a great hitters’ park. He had a .316 OBP and .339 SLG last year.

Nate: Will Dwight Smith Jr. hit enough to be a passable everyday OF?
Keith Law: I would bet against it.

Kevin: Good move in your opinion DFA’ing Hanley to make room for Pedroia? Probably means playing time for Moreland and Swihart.
Keith Law: If Swihart plays more, yes. Hanley might be done. After a hot start he fell back to earth with a thud.

Aaron: If kershaw were to opt out after this year what kind of contract would you be comfortable offering him?
Keith Law: That’s more a question about his medical outlook than performance. I’d be fine going $30 million a year if the doctors told me they expected him to stay healthy.

Rob: Based on early season results, which farm system seems to have taken the biggest step forward and which has taken the biggest step back?
Keith Law: I don’t like using early season results to draw broad conclusions.

Adam Trask: It’s not the ball, so can we now blame climate change for the increase in home runs?
Keith Law: It is the ball, right? But MLB says they don’t know why. The drag coefficient dropped. If it’s not the ball, then what is it?

Walker: Any new food recommendations for your trip to Durham?
Keith Law: Had great meals at M Kokko and Luna.

Dr. Bob: The Luke Heimlich story just gets worse. Last year he said he took “responsibility for my conduct as a teenager.” But earlier this month said that absolutely nothing happened and they took the plea deal for reasons. If nothing happened, there was nothing to apologize for a year ago. If something happened, then he’s lying now. An even bigger red flag to me.
Keith Law: Agreed. This all feels like a publicity campaign orchestrated by a lawyer. Another team reached out to me in the last hour to say he’s off their board, so that’s at least two (with Texas, per Gerry Fraley).

Billiam: What was your assessment of Ryan McMahon coming up? Seems like the Rockies have yo-yo’d him around and not given him a fair shot to succeed.
Keith Law: I think he’s an above-average regular, but they won’t play him every day or close to it.

Tony: I know all the SSS caveats still apply, but has something philosophically shifted in Nick Pivetta that has turned him into a throw-in in the Papelbon dump to an actual bona fide mid-rotation or better starter?
Keith Law: He’s not a mid-rotation or better starter given his trouble with LHB.

Joshua: Does H. Ramirez contract vest if he accumulates his at bats with another team?
Keith Law: If someone trades for him or claims him, yes. If he’s released and signs a new deal, no.

SL: Do you remain bullish on Dominic Smiths long term upside as you have in the past?
Keith Law: Yes. But he’s stagnating in AAA now.

Benny Agbayani: You were leading the Nimmo bandwagon for years before anyone else, so kudos for that, but it seems you are less enthused than others now. Do you see any hope for him against lefties? Even his approach seems off against them.
Keith Law: He might improve vs LHB if he faces them more, but the Mets don’t seem inclined to give him more reps. It’s not ideal. I think he can be a half a star – a guy who’s so good vs RHB that, with the right platoon partner, they get star-caliber production in total from one lineup spot but require two players.

Rob: Thoughts on the new At the Gates?
Keith Law: A little predictable and less melodic than the comeback record or Slaughter of the Soul.

Sammy: Have you seen/heard anything about a Jeff McNeil?
Keith Law: He’s 26 in AA.

Greg: Did Denaburg’s recent outing mean he’s likely to sign now?
Keith Law: I would say it means he’s healthy enough that someone will try to draft and sign him. That’s not saying he WILL sign. I don’t know what his bonus demands might be.

Robbie: Do you think at some point the negatives of keeping pujols playing will finally outweigh whatever negatives the angels feel benching him (PR, embarrassment, “disrespect”, money) this season? Or could they be determined to go down with him on the ship? I feel like Moreno is specifically tied to him rolling out there everyday.
Keith Law: With Pujols reaching 3000 and Ohtani making all the headlines, they could probably fade whatever backlash they receive, if any, from releasing the guy. He’s toast.

Aaron C.: Rumors on the west coast that the A’s may be relocating their AAA team to the new Las Vegas ballpark. Can *anything* be done to make a MiLB park less cartoonish regarding offensive numbers it produces?
Keith Law: First thing I’d do out there would be install a humidor. Vegas is dry as hell.

Jeff: Brandon Nimmo now has a career 128 wrc+ in over 400 PAs—this Guy for real?
Keith Law: wRC+ is a great stat, but it doesn’t know if you’ve played full-time or been platooned.

Don: Can Zack Collins be a league average player if he’s not behind the plate?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but maybe he has enough power + patience to pull it off.

Matthew: A first round pick turns into an above average #4 starter. Is the pick a success because he is a regular contributor or a failure because of the low ceiling given the draft position?
Keith Law: That depends on where in the round he was picked. At pick 1, that’s a disappointment. At pick 20, that’s a win.
Keith Law: “Failure” is not a nice word for any player, but especially inapt for an above average #4 starter (so, like a league average starter).

Jo-Nathan: Are you planning to watch the new season of Arrested Development?
Keith Law: Probably. I haven’t read the NYT interview yet – I have it saved to read later today.

Eron: Folty taken a real step this year or expect him his numbers to start declining soon?
Keith Law: I’m buying it.

Bill: You had K. Hayes > Meadows preseason. I never saw an explanation. Care to elaborate ?
Keith Law: If you didn’t see an explanation, then you never read my Pirates farm report. Hayes is an elite defensive 3b. He’s still the better prospect.

Gore : If you can remember, how does Singer compare/contrast to Nola as a prospect out of college?
Keith Law: I remember very well. Nola had better fastball command and a better third pitch.

Pete: Profar seems to be coming on a little bit here. Do you think he could still be a star offensively? Or has his ceiling changed now?
Keith Law: After all that lost time I’m almost afraid to get excited about his little run of success.

Nick: So I understand that you dropped Alex Reyes in your prospect rankings due to the uncertainty around TJ recovery which makes sense. Now that he is healthy and completely dominat. Where would he rank among other starting pitching prospects? First ?
Keith Law: No, not first, not after multiple arm issues. He’s also dominating a level below where he’s pitched before.

Pete: Blake Snell looking like the real deal here as you predicted. Still a #2 in your eyes or potentially higher?
Keith Law: I’ll probably stick with that.

Jeff: What are your thoughts on Grant Lavigne? Where do you think he ends up going?
Keith Law: Day one. Maybe comp round, more likely second. I’ll continue filling in capsules on the remaining top 100 players without them over the next week.

Gest : Do you think the splitter is becoming more popular for American amateur pitchers?
Keith Law: I do not.

Lel: What does your mock schedule look like at this point? How many more until the 4th?
Keith Law: One next week, Weds or Thurs, and one on the morning of the draft itself.

Jon: So far a 6-man rotation has been working for the Angels. At this rate will Angels pitchers be less fatigued come September compared to other teams (i.e. Heaney, Skaggs)? Also Do you think other MLB teams take note and say “hey maybe this works” and implement it in their rotations maybe next year?
Keith Law: I think the experimentation – Angels, Rays – will continue across baseball. Teams are looking for better ways to get more from their pitchers while also limiting injuries/

Butts: Curious on your take on Griffin Roberts. Starter? Heard his change looked pretty okay yesterday.
Keith Law: His change was there in March too. It’s the delivery. There isn’t a starter in the majors who looks like that.

Mark: Did Mackenzie Gore ever have blister problems in HS? Does he project higher than a #3 starter?
Keith Law: He projects as a 1.

Mike: Brad Brach to the Nats for Y Antuna…. Who says no?
Keith Law: The Nats would laugh at that.

Estuve : What possible adjustment do you think there might be for pitchers to make to Meadows? He has looked great at the plate so far.
Keith Law: They could wait a minute.

John: I wrestle with at what point do we allow those who have served their time to fully reintegrate into society and what jobs do we allow them? Heimlich appears to be making it easy to deny rehabilitation given his reversal on responsibility. Where does one draw the line on acceptable jobs for them (and what does that say about the non-convicts who do those jobs) and how much rehabilitation it takes to migrate up the acceptable job scale. What’s the worst thing someone could have done and how much time served before they can professionally play baseball?
Keith Law: If you commit acts of violence, sexual or physical, against children, you don’t get to play pro baseball. It’s not really that difficult. There isn’t any rehabilitation for paraphiliacs.

Ed: I’m really curious about the 6’11 pitcher in the draft. Have we ever seen anyone who could produce such downplane? And what effect would you expect that produce?
Keith Law: We have – but nearly all of them ended up hurt and/or in relief.

Darryl: Due to medicals is T.Beck now a 3-4 round pick? Does Nico Hoerner have a chance to be an early round pick?
Keith Law: Hoerner goes day one. I’ve heard late first but I think somewhere in 31-45 more likely.
Keith Law: Beck … I don’t know what the medicals say. He’s a huge risk having missed a whole year with a back injury, but that’s about all I know.

John: Have you seen or heard anything about Jonathan Hernandez? Is he making a case for T100, or not until he shows it in AA?
Keith Law: You don’t get on to the top 100 because you had two great starts against the same (not that good) lineup.

Darryl: Does Senzel get the phone call before/after the ASB?
Keith Law: He’s out with vertigo. No timetable.

Boots Boots: Luis Alexander Basabe. Is he legit? Everything seems so much better this season so far.
Keith Law: He was also hurt for part of last year, IIRC.

Zac: Where would you rank Mize in the Tigers pitching prospects? I believe you have it as Perez, Burrows, Faedo, and Manning
Keith Law: He’s better than all of those guys. I really think he could pitch in a major league bullpen right now.

Jason: Chris Davis in the running for worst contract in MLB history? 4 more years at $23mil per and an OPS+ of 37 this year!
Keith Law: Ralph thought it was a good deal.

Adam: Is Sean Newcombs hot streak SSS? Not sure where his walk rate stands but the eye test says hes throwing way more first pitch strikes.
Keith Law: He’s really not throwing more strikes; he had one outlier start vs the Mets where he threw 70 out of 97 pitches for strikes, but the rest of the year he’s still down around 61%. Great stuff, below average control. Definitely someone you keep starting while he’s missing bats, but I think he’ll always leave you expecting more given how good the pitches are.

Bernard: Is there a current MLB comp for Eloy Jimenez?
Keith Law: Probably.

YABoySwaggyP: No chance that the White Sox dont take Madrigal if there at 4, right?
Keith Law: Absolutely a chance they don’t. Maybe a good chance they don’t.

Newt: Have you checked out Cobra Kai, the Karate Kid reboot with Macchio and Billy Zabka. Surprisingly, it’s really good.
Keith Law: I’m in the minority of folks my age, but I never loved Karate Kid and don’t share the nostalgia for it that my peers seem to.

j: Thoughts on Garrett Whitlock and/or Erik Swanson of the Yankees?
Keith Law: I was hoping to see Swanson’s next start for Trenton, but he’s in AAA now; I’m going to try to see him on SWB’s homestand after the draft (I can’t go tomorrow because it’s Date Night with my daughter). I
Keith Law: I’ve heard he’s changed a few things and I want to see it for myself.

Steve: Hey Keith, two years ago I bitches at you for saying the Phillies shouldn’t/wouldn’t take Groome number one overall. I will never doubt you again. Having said that, if you were in the Phillies organization, where would you like to see Sixto by the end of this year? With regards to stats and level in the minors.
Keith Law: Double-A is fine. I would love to see him stretch a little more out within games, but after he had some minor arm soreness in the spring they may not want to push him.

Jay: KC’s top prospects look good so far this year. Do you see any of Matias, Pratto, Lee, or Melendez as top 100 guys next year?
Keith Law: Lee would be today – he barely missed the cut. I’m not sure what you’re looking at when you say Pratto or Matias look good, though; both have OBPs in the .310s and Matias is still striking out at an untenable rate.

Mark: How close was Grant Little to making the top 100?
Keith Law: He wasn’t a consideration. (He’s a draft-eligible sophomore at Texas Tech, for folks who don’t know the name.)

Zac: Does a team draft Luke Heimlich?
Keith Law: Someone will.

Tom: Just saw Ashcroft perform last week – he was amazing. It’s too bad bands like the Verve can’t make it work.
Keith Law: Their one comeback album before they called it quits was good even without any standout singles.

Chimmy: Know anything about Trent Deveaux?
Keith Law: I do. As does everyone who read about him in my Angels org report in January.

Joe: Your insightful mock and earlier comments aside, would Kelenic be a reach at 2?
Keith Law: No, not IMO. Not my choice at 2 but not a reach. At 1, over Mize, yes.

YABoySwaggyP: Would Seth Beer be a good value pick for the White Sox at 46?
Keith Law: Yes, I’d be good with that, but I bet he’s gone by then.

Neil: I will use Vlad as an example here, but realise in his case this question may be flawed. But what do you do with a prospect that has a tool that is major league ready, but still needs to develop elsewhere. In the case of Vlad, are you hurting his development as a hitter by keeping him in AA where he is dominating, even though he still needs experience there for other parts of his game?
Keith Law: It depends on your long-term plan for the player – and you need to have one. If you think he can really learn that position, then you get him somewhere where he can work on it, with the best coach you have for that skill. If you think, as I do, that Vlad probably never plays 3b as a regular, then just call him up and make him a DH.

Alec: Why is it that most people ignore the existential threat that Donald Trump brings by being president? From talking to a lot of people, it is as if most of them have this built in idea in their brains that everything will turn out okay in the end. I think this stems from religion, but it is scary wherever it stems from.
Keith Law: I see, at best, a decade of trying to undo the damage done just in the last eighteen months. And it could be MUCH worse.

DaveAlden53: The Dodgers lead the NL West in run differential and are back to within 3.5 games of the lead. Is the ship righted or is it still leaking below the waterline from injuries?
Keith Law: Can’t it be both? I think it’s kind of both.

Jordan: Should I take the significantly K lower rate from Austin Beck as a sign of his progress?
Keith Law: It’s lower, and that’s good, since he seemed like a guy who might punch out like crazy with the jump to full-season ball.
Keith Law: BTW, Jordon Adell’s contact rate in his first month-plus in full-season ball has been amazing. No matter what else he did, I figured he’d swing and miss a lot more.

JaKob: Hey Keith, do teams track the amount of pitches thrown opposed to the number of actual innings they throw.. Seems like the # of innings could be skewed for a guy that labors through innings and throws say 100 pitches in a 5 inning game.. He would be getting more work than a guy that averages 80 pitches per inning (however, it’d appear they pitched the same amount if you just looked at IP)
Keith Law: Of course they do.

Pat D: Keith, I’ve said before I’m not on Twitter for any number of reasons. Lately when I’ve read your Twitter feed, I’ve been filled with notions of joining Twitter just to argue with people who comment on yours (all due respect, stick to baseball guy comes to mind). Please reassure me that such an action would be a very silly thing to do.
Keith Law: Twitter is essential to my job and my career as a whole. It is also a massive source of aggravation, especially since they still don’t take their own policies on harassment, abuse, or copyrights seriously at all.

Kevin: Where would Tirso Ornelas go in this draft? Love his swing
Keith Law: Back of the first.

PhilW: Keith – have you had a chance to see Chris Paddack pitch at Lake Elsinore? Seems to be fully recovered from TJ and putting up ridiculous K/BB ratios. Does he have a chance to move way up the prospect rankings or are there any factors limiting his ceiling?
Keith Law: I saw him throw a sim game in March and raved about him then.

Greg: I get that Gorman’s power is the reason he’s in the top 10. But that’s the only thing he does well, right? Is that really worthy of a top 10 pick?
Keith Law: He’s not a slug; he’s a decent athlete who could probably become a solid enough defender at third with work. You’re really underrating him.

Jordan: Does Virginia ruin good prospects?
Keith Law: Pitchers, yes.

Paul: Are you a believer in the Mets Peter Alonso, if so, why not shift him to LF like the Phillies have done with Hoskins and leave 1B to D. Smith who is the better fielder at 1B?
Keith Law: Have you ever laid eyes on Alonso? Smith is the better defender but that doesn’t mean you can just put Alonso wherever you want to.

Moe Mentum: If you’re a prospective college student who is undecided on a major, is an Ivy League school a good or bad place to “figure it out”?
Keith Law: I can only speak to Harvard, and it’s a terrible place for that. We had to declare at the end of our freshman year, and I certainly wasn’t ready at that point.

Brian: Being on below average team in a below average conference is killer for a prospect. Owen Miller of Illinois State had a fantastic year and he is nowhere to be found on any prospect lists. Similar to how Paul Dejong was overlooked.
Keith Law: Dejong wasn’t overlooked. He went in the 4th round. But yes, playing bad competition hurts your stock, and Miller hasn’t posted a good walk rate or shown any power in a really bad conference this year.

Roger: Since you are higher than the industry on Noah Naylor, what do you think his ceiling could be if everything clicks? Perhaps a Devers type?
Keith Law: Nothing at all like Devers. I think Naylor’s an above-average regular at third who hits for high average with some pop and value on the bases. Devers is a fucking monster.

Tom: What do you think of Spencer Torkelson? Can he be a guy?
Keith Law: Not really – not like the HR total would imply, at least.

Dan: Most likely to fall in the draft due to signability concerns?
Keith Law: Cecconi would have gone top 10-15 if he’d been healthy & was signable up there.

Rum Guy: Knowing you’re a rum guy, you recommend dark & stormy or what else?
Keith Law: That’s fine if you have a blended dark rum. Better rums are for sipping neat.

Cletus: How much of Giolito’s struggles are related to the Nats’ changing his mechanics, and how much is he just “not the guy the scouting report claimed 4 years ago” ?
Keith Law: He was that guy in March. If his velocity wasn’t back at that point, then your snark might have a kernel of truth to it.

UGW: Jakson Reetz finally becoming a *guy*? Still just 22.
Keith Law: I was a big fan out of the draft, but I saw him here two weeks ago and I don’t think so. It’s just 100 PA, and it’s really all walks – he’s working the count but the impact isn’t there.

Alec: Thoughts on Tomi Lauren incident?
Keith Law: She’s awful. I think throwing water on her just feeds her victim complex. And I don’t know what it accomplished.

PD: Where does Moniak rank in the all time #1 draft busts?
Keith Law: He’s 20. Let’s hold off on that, shall we?
Keith Law: OK, sorry I can’t get to more questions – there are hundreds unanswered in the queue – but I do have a few other things to do today and am hoping to take most of tomorrow off. Thank you as always for reading. Stay tuned for another mock next week, either Wednesday or Thursday (please don’t ask me Weds where it is, it’ll run whenever my editors want to run it), and one more on draft day. I’ll also tweet/post to FB when I add more notes to the top 100. Have a safe Memorial Day weekend!

So much new content today – for Insiders, my 2008 redraft column, and a piece with scouting notes on Yankees, Phillies, Nats, and Royals prospects. I also have review of the new Civilization board game up at Paste.

Keith Law: Here’s a chance to chat our way out of our constrictions. It’s Klawchat.

Joe: Keith, any ideas why Buck is starting Joseph over Sisco so often?
Keith Law: I really can’t explain any of the on-field decisions happening over there. Buck has certainly seemed disinclined to use young players the front office brings up.

Dave: Antuna’s K rate is way up in A ball (and stats way down). How concerning is this or SSS?
Keith Law: Yasel Antuna? He’s *18*. He’s younger than several top HS prospects in this year’s draft. I’m eyeballing it but I think he’s the 3rd youngest player in the Sally League, at an age when he should probably be cutting social studies for Senior Day.

Zach: Will Trevor Williams have a long term MLB career and if so, at what role. His stuff seems underwhelming but at the same time, his ERA/FIP going back a year is 3.52/3.86 and a low HR rate in over 30+ starts.
Keith Law: Back end starter thanks to his command.

Bob: I’ve seen reports that Faedo’s velocity is down and his Ks are pedestrian, but his overall performance has been good. Do you have any reports that suggest a lower than anticipated ceiling?
Keith Law: That’s pretty much what I’ve got too.

Andrew: Nice game from Morejon last night. Who has the highest ceiling out of these three? Morejon, Paddack, Quantrill
Keith Law: Morejon, but I think all three are at least mid-rotation starters if healthy (always an if … that’s two TJs and Morejon has had arm issues too).

Andrew: Thoughts on Tirso Ornelas so far this year? More than holding his own as an 18 yr old in the MWL.
Keith Law: One of my favorite swings in the minors. I’m all in.

Lloyd: Just wanted to revisit your on-point assessment of the Brewers’ sticking Corbin Burnes in Colorado Springs. The home/road splits are astonishingly cartoonish thus far. What’s the theoretical bigger picture here – have him face “better” hitters? Would you say based off the road numbers he’s more or less ready?
Keith Law: I’d rather see him in the major league bullpen. I haven’t even looked at his stats this year because I don’t see what I’m supposed to glean from the guy playing games in near zero G.

Phil: why wouldn’t the cardinals go for machado? I feel like they are in need of consolidating talent given their surplus of young outfielders and pitching depth in the minors…great candidate for a 3 for 1 trade no?
Keith Law: I made this argument on Bernie Miklasz’s radio show this morning. The only hesitation I might have is that a good Cards 3-1 or 4-1 offer would include Kelly or Knizner, and with Sisco there I don’t think the Orioles would favor a package headlined by another catcher.

Tom: Are the A’s in on Kelenic at all?
Keith Law: At all, yes. Gorman too. But I think those are less likely than the college guys.

Josh: Pretty much every preseason list had Heliot Ramos over Austin Beck. Has the first month changed either of their perceptions in any way?
Keith Law: No. Not only is it SSS, but they’re playing at the same level, and Beck is 10 months older than Ramos.

Jake: Do you think Walker Buehler is up for good? If (massive if) the whole Dodgers rotation is healthy, is Buehler someone who starts postseason games for them (basically one of their top 4 starters)?
Keith Law: Depends on what they plan for his workload but I doubt he goes back down for more than a reverse cup of coffee. Hard to see a scenario where he isn’t one of the ten best pitchers in the system. Do not see him starting games for them in October – if they make it – if everyone is healthy.

Tom: What would your plan with Buehler be? They obviously need him now with their injuries and place in the standings, but it’s a long year and he has never thrown more than 98 innings in a year.
Keith Law: Just to stay with Ferris here, the (last year’s IP + 30) threshold has been debunked, but there’s obviously some upper bound on what he can handle. I’d probably target a plan that gets him to 130-140 in the regular season, but with statcast data the Dodgers might get an early warning if he’s wearing down at all, and should be prepared to adjust on the fly. If he has to skip a start, or become a long reliever for a few weeks, then that has to be the priority over squeezing a few extra innings out of him.

Some guy @ 3 Rivers Art Festival: Is Kevin Newman and Clay Holmes, plus two other guys enough for the Pirates to pry Machado from the Os? If not, what do you think it will take? Yeah, I know no way NH does this.
Keith Law: It’s not close to enough, and why would the Pirates acquire Machado now in his walk year?

Hi Erix: Someone asked this of Jay Jaffe, and I’m curious to get your thoughts, Keith. Robinson Cano … no-brainer HOF?
Keith Law: Almost certainly a HoF on merit, but “no-brainer” implies that he’ll sail in on the first ballot and I really doubt that.

Albtead34: It looks like the Rangers have the makings of a good young core. What are your thoughts on Mazara and is Profar going to be part of that core?
Keith Law: Mazara was one of my breakout candidates for this year, so obviously I’m a believer and I think he’s a core player for them. I’m cautiously optimistic about Profar – since he began playing regularly he’s not hitting for enough average but he’s putting the ball in play and showing some power, while drawing walks at an adequate clip. I think there’s still a regular in there and I hope he gets regular playing time for the rest of the year.

Reds Fan (Concerned?): Good afternoon, how concerned are you with Senzel’s vertigo issues this year & last? Can medicine get him back to good health so he can enjoy his life and get back to what he does best?
Keith Law: I’m not qualified to answer that at all.

Matty: Ian Kinsler has been pretty terrible at the plate in Anaheim while David Fletcher has been raking in Salt Lake. What’s the likelihood that Fletcher gets his shot sooner than later?
Keith Law: Salt Lake is a tremendous hitter’s park, in a hitter’s division. Fletcher has played all of two games this year outside of one of the PCL bandboxes. He slugged .354 last year.

Moe Mentum: In college, what did you major in? Would you choose the same major if you could do it over again?
Keith Law: Economics & sociology (joint). Would major in applied math if I could do it again.

Grover: Obviously they won’t blow it up, but if the Dodgers are hovering around .500 at the break, would it make sense for them to move some of the pieces that probably aren’t part of the long term plans (Grandal, Puig, Ryu, Hill?)
Keith Law: Yes and I wouldn’t doubt that they would do so. I know they’ve dangled Puig before.

Adam: Do you think an old dog has learned a new trick? Any changes to Markakis swing or just hot at the moment?
Keith Law: Just hot.
Keith Law: “hot.”

Mark: Are Tatis Jr’s strikeouts worrisome?
Keith Law: We’re hitting a theme here. Tatis is 19 in double-A, and has been raking the last few weeks after a slow start. You have to consider a hitter’s age relative to his level. Without that variable, any ‘analysis’ is worthless.

Moe Mentum: Best song by Talking Heads?
Keith Law: “Burning Down the House” remains my favorite. Brilliant then, no less so now. “Psycho Killer” is great, of course, and I’ve always thought “Blind” gets short shrift because it was their final album and they broke up right after its release.

Alex: what is your go to rum to drink neat?
Keith Law: Can’t beat Zacapa.

Mark: When do you think teams start thinking about making significant trades?
Keith Law: After the draft.

James: Better rest of career, Harvey or Meseraco?
Keith Law: I liked the deal both ways – Mets needed a catcher, Mesoraco still has some pop, neither guy is really fully healthy and I’m not sure we could ever expect either to be so. If you told me to take one, it’d be Mesoraco, but I do not agree with folks who think Harvey is toast.

Adam D.: Any new whispers from the #sources on what the Giants may do at #2? Your article this morning got me fired up for what they could potentially do picking this high.
Keith Law: Same names with them. I don’t know if anyone will really know what the teams up top are doing till very close to the draft but I do feel like the top six picks will include five college guys, the names everyone is putting out there – Mize, Bart, Bohm, Madrigal.

Guest: Lourdes Gurriel seems to swing and miss and awful lot. Doesn’t walk much either. Fringe regular?
Keith Law: I saw him a few times last year and didn’t think he was a regular.

Dan: Read your post on Loaisiga today. Top 100 prospect in your next rankings?
Keith Law: I won’t do 100 again until January.

Grover: Thoughts/projections on DJ Peters?
Keith Law: Upside of a 55, but realistically he might struggle enough with contact in the majors to play as a below-average regular most seasons but who has some above-average years.

JG: Are you encouraged by Gonsalves’s start at AAA. Can he be a mid-rotation guy?
Keith Law: Think more back end than that. Lack of a breaking ball really limits him.

Greg: If you had to redo a mock, would you still have Gorman to Atlanta?
Keith Law: Next mock will run on Thursday, then another two weeks after that, then another on draft day.

Justin : How do you deal with close friends or family who are vocal Trump supporters?
Keith Law: I have no family members or close friends who are. I have ended any contact with distant friends who are. Actually, that’s not quite true – I think I have one close friend who is a Trump supporter, but he’s never said so, and he’s pretty clear about wanting to avoid discussing political or social issues with me, knowing where we disagree. I have no problem with that, but you did say “vocal” and he wouldn’t qualify. He’d probably call me a vocal anti-Trumper.

Bob W.: Keith, what is your opinion, if you’ve formulated one, about the desirability of shortening the MLB regular season to, say, 154 games? My kneejerk reaction is that I’m opposed to it, but I’m open to changing my mind about it. Thanks
Keith Law: Oppose, primarily because it forks the history of the game.

DH: If you knew they’d all end up as average fielding 1B, how would you rank the bats of Nolan Gorman, Noah Naylor, Triston Casas?
Keith Law: If you’re asking pure hit tool, Naylor, Casas, Gorman. If you’re talking total offensive upside, Gorman, Naylor, Casas. However, Noah Naylor is not a 1b. He’s an above-average runner with arm strength and is going to play a skill position.

Marissa : Should anything be taken from TJ Zeuch’s promotion to AA or was it expected that he would be promoted around now
Keith Law: Maybe a year later than expected?

Butts: Is Micker Adolfo for real? Can I get excited yet?
Keith Law: Yeah, I would. He may take a step back when he gets to Birmingham and faces AA pitching, but he has always had enormous tools. I think I said in last week’s chat that he could barely play baseball when he was signed. He’s come a long way, baby.

J.P.: Soto’s on his way to Harrisburg. That was fast. Do you see him making it to DC this season at this rate if there’s room?
Keith Law: I don’t think his approach is ready for that or close to it.

TJ: Is Chance Adams kind of cooked?
Keith Law: No, but I would love to see him move to the pen. I think his fastball will tick up and he could be a Jason Frasor type, maybe better.

Ron: Is D German a Major League starter?
Keith Law: I would bet no, maybe 70/30 against, but you have to try him out there, no?

Greg: Any chance of Connor Scott, Seigler or Denaburg ending up in Gainesville next year?
Keith Law: Denaburg has been hurt since I saw him (I think he was hurt that day – I have video of him stepping off the rubber and rolling his shoulders like he was stiff) and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him get to school. Potential top 10 guy for 2021.

Chimmy: Franmil Reyes – fluke?
Keith Law: Every game he has played this year has been in a PCL bandbox: 17 at El Paso, 8 at Las Vegas, 4 at Reno, and 4 at Albuquerque (where he went 11 for 17 with 4 homers).

Brandon: With Jay Groome essentially missing out on the first 2-3 years of his development, how much do you think that will set him back in the long run?
Keith Law: A lot. What a shame. He could come back with all his stuff, but he’ll essentially be 21 with the experience of a HS kid.

Grover: Would you have taken a chance on Harvey if he was completely unwilling to go to the minors and try and sort things out?
Keith Law: Yes.

Bertie Wooster: Did you get a chance to see Nomar Mazara as a prospect? Just a general questions on prospects – when you see a prospect and know he needs to develop in this area or that – do you then check back in after two or three years in the bigs- and see if they’ve made the adjustments?
Keith Law: Yes, saw him at 17 in the AZL. I’m not sure what the second question means … I always keep tabs on ex-prospects who haven’t panned out yet, because I need to think about why not, and if I should still project development for them.

John: Royce Lewis put up decent numbers in low A last year and is now putting up huge numbers. How soon should the Twins look to move him up?
Keith Law: It’s been 20 games. Yes, he’s putting up huge numbers, mostly contact/batting average, but I think it’s awfully early to be moving guys up unless they played half a season or more at that level last year. (FTR, I’m shocked Soto was moved up. He was very good when I saw him, but he didn’t scream “get him to AA” either.)

Paul: Any names connected to Atlanta’s second round pick?
Keith Law: I don’t even bother asking about second round picks or later. No team knows that today.

addoeh: And remember kids, Keith isn’t advocating cutting social studies class for Senior Day.
Keith Law: Yes I am.

TP: Any idea why Kelenic is playing for a travel team rather than a high school team?
Keith Law: I believe it exposes him to some better competition in that Iowa weekend league. I saw him, and that travel team he’s on is better than your typical cold-weather HS team.

Burt Reynolds: Is Sixto Sanchez hype more built around projection than present day skills? Obviously he is still young for his level but I have not seen any stats that stick out saying this kid is a #2 pitcher.
Keith Law: Kid was 96-101 at age 18 last year without much effort and good control, and struck out a man an inning in low-A before he was promoted. How many 18-year-olds can say all of that? Maybe one or two a year?

Marissa : Keith, thanks for the chat. Do you notice anything significant with Conforto’s early struggles or is it too early for Mets fans to panic?
Keith Law: I honestly don’t know to what extent we can point to his shoulder to explain it. I think it’s fair to wonder, but if that’s the case, then does that mean he won’t be right all year or until he takes more time off?

Ron: Who would any team give up the farm for Machado, when he’s there for the taking in 6 months?
Keith Law: If he can turn you from a borderline playoff team into a division winner, sure. If you’re way out of it, or already locked into a division title (likely, at least), then no.

Justin : David Price may have hurt himself playing video games? Big deal, little deal, no deal?
Keith Law: I’m pretty sure I saw that that is not a plausible explanation for this injury.

JR: Has anyone ever recommended “Everything I Never Told you” by Celeste Ng? I just finished and really enjoyed. Think you would like it too – and at just under 300 pages it’s a quick read.
Keith Law: I believe a reader recommended her other novel to me. Just haven’t gotten around to it. I’m currently reading Oscar & Lucinda, which won the Man Booker Prize; it’s good but kind of slow, as I think Carey was trying to write like the British masters of the mid-19th century and he did it too well.

J: I’m about 90% certain Vladdy Jr. will be up with the Jays at the ASB. When do you think Adames gets the call for the Rays?
Keith Law: If you said August 1st I’d say I was with you on Baby Vlad. Adames probably late June.

DH: Is Garrett Hampson good enough to crack the everyday lineup in Colorado?
Keith Law: Maybe … but man, I don’t know if he’s going to have enough power to be an everyday guy.

Kay: Any chance Bart makes it to the Mets?
Keith Law: Right now I would say 10% or less.

Scott: Have you seen Darick Hall? 28 HR last year at low A, already 10 at high A this year and walking more. I can only read the stat line, but the numbers remind me of Ryan Howard in that he’s pretty one-dimensional with a lot of power.
Keith Law: Yes. Older kid without any other tools. He’s nearly 23.

Steve: Do you think Bundy is hurt? Is he tradeable?
Keith Law: I don’t know if he’s hurt, but you don’t try to trade a guy like that after the worst start of his career. If you wanted to trade him three starts ago, sure, but now? Isn’t every other GM going to ask “why are you offering him today?”

Josh: Keith I an electoral question. I’m Liberal as they come, my state senator is a pro-Trump Republican. Problem is the only person running against him not only lacks charisma or political savvy, I have serious doubts about whether he is capable of the job other than being a rubber stamp to whatever the Democratic leadership tells him. We need to flip our State Senate back (this is NY) but I seriously question the candidate’s competence. Nobody else is running as of now, and it seems unlikely anyone else will. What to do?
Keith Law: What’s your other option? This is a problem inherent in our electoral system; other methods may produce better results but are more complex. My state Senator is a moderate Republican, and is competent and very nice (we had a long chat once about a law, which she ended up supporting, banning gay conversion therapy in Delaware), but because our state Senate is 11-10 D-R, we might be better off on some issues, like certain issues of science and the environment, with a less ‘competent’ Democrat. I may decide to vote that way, because it’s one or the other – I don’t get to shop for a better third option.

Grover: How annoying is the hot take narratives criticizing the DOdgers and Yankees for pulling pitchers during no-hitters? No-hitters strike me as special, fun moments, but it’s not like you get an extra win for it.
Keith Law: And there’s no way Buehler was finishing that. You want to make the next Bud Smith?

mike: From “win now” standpoint Vlad Jr. may justify a call up to DH full time with Toronto, however when does a call up make sense developmentally? other consideration is service time/control matter…. When do you think Vlad Jr debuts in Toronto??
Keith Law: They already have the extra year of control. If they want to play the super two game, but lose a month of his production, well, I think that’s just dumb, but teams do it.
Keith Law: (I’m not 100% sure he’s ready, BTW, but if he’s not now, he will be.)

San Cristóbal D.R: Hey Keith big fan .. I used to love Andújar at first but his OBP is way too low.. I think he need to go back to AAA least for now when drury comeback
Keith Law: His OBP and walk rate are too low, but it’s also just a month.

Jor: How far up the Yankees’ prospect list can Jonathan Loaisiga jump if he keeps this up?
Keith Law: With Freicer hurt, Abreu just back from injury, and Adams struggling, Loaisiga might be their 2nd or 3rd best pitching prospect right now. (Medina is in extended, and he’s the ‘maybe’ in there, with Sheffield 1.)

Josh: Thoughts on Fernando Romero thus far? 2 plus pitches?
Keith Law: Yes two plus pitches.

AGirlHasNoName: Why wouldn’t the market for Machado be less than in the last off-season? The packages being discussed seem like an awful lot of value for five months of a guy that can leave afterwards.
Keith Law: The O’s absolutely should have dealt him in the offseason and I said so at the time. The buyer would have gotten a full season of production plus a draft pick.

Eminor3rd: Given that picks 2-6 or so look like they’ll have players of the same “tier,” is it valid, at all, to say that it makes sense to go with a college position player in order to reduce risk?
Keith Law: I’m a little lost on this one. I think those picks will all be college position players. However, I think there are a couple of HS players who might make sense up there – Carter Stewart in particular – but who, for various reasons, aren’t likely to go that high.

Mark: Do you think the balls in play thing is an issue? What’s the fix?
Keith Law: Yes. Raise the bottom of the strike zone (which they did a little last year).

Andy: Why do the Brewers have an AAA team in Colorado Springs. What is there to keep them from taking Beloit, which has a Single A team, and saying, in 2019, this franchise will be our AAA squad and put them in the PCL or IL.
Keith Law: Many minor league teams are independent entities with franchise agreements with their leagues. The owners of Colorado Springs are moving the team to San Antonio after the season, and that move takes the PCL franchise with it. (San Antonio is moving to … Amarillo? Somewhere else in Texas.)

Scott: I have always thought that San Diego should draft college bats early (unless there is an outlier like Gore) and sign FA pitchers. They do not seem to follow this thinking. What are your thoughts on how SD should build their roster?
Keith Law: I don’t think they should force it. If the right college bat isn’t there, don’t do it. And Preller wants upside – at 7 they’re not likely to get a college bat with upside.

JG: What were your thoughts on Altuve as a prospect and a young Major Leaguer? Any inkling he would turn into MVP material?
Keith Law: I thought he’d be a regular. I saw him all of once, at a Futures Game, before his callup, but thought his swing was good and he was very strong for his size. I had no clue he was going to become a plus runner and basestealer and never forecast this power.

Adam Trask: NYT’s Kepner says we should re-examine Ruben’s tenure in Philly, saying he left the club in good shape. What say Klaw?
Keith Law: No, he did not leave the club in good shape, not the major league team and not the farm system.

NYTT: Love how big you’ve been on Bryse Wilson since he hit Rome last year. What’re your thoughts on him? Is he a higher floor/lower ceiling type guy or does he have significant upside in him?
Keith Law: Higher ceiling. Think he could end up a #2.

Timmy: I saw The Florida Project recently. Not trying to ruin it for anybody, but what is your take on the last scene? Is it really make believe – like kids pretending to go “on a safari”?
Keith Law: It’s fantasy. There’s no way that could have been real within the context of the film. It also underscores the dichotomy between the setting of the last scene and the setting of the rest of the movie.

K.C.: Does Newcomb’s use of a change up make him a viable #2-3?
Keith Law: He’s always had a good changeup.

Grover: I know college pitch counts has been a crusade for you (and one I agree with), but how is it that some of the more egregious coaches can continue to get top pitching recruits despite this practice? I have to imagine most of these kids and their parents have dreams of making the major leagues, don’t they recognize that throwing 150 times in a college game is detrimental to that?
Keith Law: The coaches tell the parents they’re the experts and they know what they’re doing, and most parents don’t know any better. How Vasil’s father, an attorney, didn’t lose his mind over the coach burning him for a useless inning of relief two days before his start, or Deason’s parents aren’t seething that their kid went 140 pitches the other day for U of Arizona (#naptime), is beyond me.

Tim: Can you name 5 prospects that are better than Juan Soto?
Keith Law: Yes. Vlad, Eloy, Gore, Tatis, Mejia.

Dave: Does the regression in control for Freicer Perez change your outlook for him at all?
Keith Law: The fact that he’s hurt changes my outlook, at least for now. A bad month doesn’t change my outlook on players without some underlying, systemic explanation.

Yuri: You might have answered this in the past, but who are your go to old school metal bands? Only recently started listening to Judas Priest, Dio, Danzig – and have really been digging them all.
Keith Law: Maiden is kind of the king of that mountain for me, as well as Sabbath. Then it’s more about certain songs, often ones that have some nostalgia value.
Keith Law: For whatever it’s worth, Danzig is more hard rock to me than metal. They dressed like a metal band but their music was never very heavy.

deetee: Most anticipated boardgame of 2018?
Keith Law: Founders of Gloomhaven & Rising Sun come to mind. Some other lesser ones by designers I like (Mercado comes to mind).

Ryan: Can you try to explain what front offices are doing at this moment to prepare for the draft? I’m assuming the fact-finding phase never really ends but at some point they have to be switching into the decision making phase. The whole process is fascinating to me.
Keith Law: Lot of teams doing scout meetings – bring the whole staff to one place to review all the players over 2-3 days – this week or next, before the college conference tournaments.

JR: I’m getting old. The 2008 MLB draft is the first one I really followed and remember (probably thanks in part to your coverage). Seeing some of those names in the re-draft was just depressing. It’s really been 10 years already since those guys were drafted?
Keith Law: I had the same thought. It’s weird to me that I’m now redrafting drafts that happened after I left the Jays.

Evan: Going to Tokyo/Kyoto, any food recs? (not sure if youve been)
Keith Law: Never been, sorry. But I might be in Stockholm in the very near future, so I’m happy to take food or other recs from readers. I’ll have most of an afternoon and evening free before the event I’m going for.

Mike: What kind of reports have you gotten on Jesus Luzardo this season? Is he a top 100 guy for you at this point?
Keith Law: Nothing but positive since spring training. Stuff better, still has great control. He wasn’t far from the 100 this offseason, so with graduations/injuries, it’s fair to say I’d have him on.

Louie: What is a good first step for someone who thinks some kind of medication for anxiety/depression is necessary? Is it best to just be up front with a professional about it and what you think you need or will that seem like you are fishing for prescription?
Keith Law: Talk to your primary care doctor first. SSRIs, the main drugs of choice for treating depression or generalized anxiety disorder, are not drugs of abuse.

Rey: Keith, I’m loving your book. I’m just wondering why you focused on UZR and didn’t speak about DRS in the defense chapter? Is it later in the book?
Keith Law: I have always preferred UZR.

John: What did you think about Soto, Kieboom, and Agustin Monday? You mentioned that Soto ran a 70 to 1st — how does that gibe with the 40/45 speed I’ve seen elsewhere. Thanks!
Keith Law: I have a blog post up on those guys. I don’t know about the 40/45 speed. The stopwatch doesn’t lie – you can’t run like that to first with below-average speed.

Josh: Is it time to worry about Paul Goldschmidt? Under .210 average since 9/1 last year which is over 200 AB and has not had had a month below .230 since his rookie year… he is striking out at an alarming rate ( on pace for 200+) and if you take away his first week and a half of the season, he is not walking as much or taking as many pitches. His bat looks really slow against even just moderately good FB. Thoughts?
Keith Law: So a third of a season. I know I say this over and over, but we’re still talking about a fairly short period of time in the career of a hitter with a long, established track record of all-star performance.

Jimmy R: I have a week long family reunion next week in a big house. There’s 20 of us going, 3 are huge Trump supporters. My brother asked that politics not be brought up. But if we are spending a week together, I don’t see how it’s not; especially with all this crap happening on a daily basis. My plan is to be quiet and not bring it up but I’m wondering what I can do if there’s a huge breaking story that can’t be ignored. What you think?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t go. I’m not staying quiet – all that is necessary for the triumph of evil, and all that – so I’ll bow out.

Kevin Maas: I refuse contact with someone who disagrees with my politics. P.S. I’m so tolerant. -KLaw
Keith Law: Google the “paradox of tolerance.” You might learn something, popper.

Tim: I’m excited about Seranthony Dominguez simply because if his name. Can he pitch? Bullpen the final destination for him?
Keith Law: Legit two plus pitches with pretty good command. Bullpen guy.

Jamie: Seeing how the Astros won it all and have a great future, any regrets not taking that job?
Keith Law: Absolutely not.

QMan: Have you ever considered a full review of MLB stars with rankings? Basically an ageless top 25< 25 with tool grades?
Keith Law: Nope nope nope land of ten thousand nopes.

Scott: I know you said Soto’s approach needs some refinement, but do you think the Nats with this most recent promotion might be hoping that Soto will be ready at some point next year to take over in RF if Harper doesn’t sign? Or do organizations not take stuff like that into consideration?
Keith Law: I’m sure getting him to the majors in the next year, while they’re still good, is part of their thinking.

Nick: What is a realistic outcome for Justus Shefield? Above average MLB starter? More?
Keith Law: Above average major league starter, yes.

Matt: Have you heard any tracks from the new Arctic Monkeys’ album? Any reviews so far?
Keith Law: Tomorrow, right? I haven’t heard anything yet.

QMan: Why is there no grade for batting eye or feel for the zone? As OBP has become so important in the last 15 years why is there kontool associated with it?
Keith Law: There is. I think most teams have it as a box on the scouting report.

Turner Watts: I got some Himalayan salt skewers as a gift for teacher appreciation day. Have you ever used before?
Keith Law: No. I don’t much go for fancy salts – it’s still almost entirely sodium chloride, and few if any people can taste the difference – but salt skewers of any color sound interesting.

Andrew: When you’re scouting a player at a high school game, where do you usually prefer to sit to watch the player?
Keith Law: Behind the plate for a pitcher, then up the line to watch his delivery from the side. For a hitter, I stand to see his open side (see his hands, not his ass).

K.C.: What sort of potential does Bryce Wilson have, and why wasn’t he viewed more highly out of high school?
Keith Law: Bad delivery out of HS. Atlanta cleaned him right up. Answered on his potential above.

JR: Thoughts on sports betting? Do you think it should be legalized and regulated in every state? I live in Vegas and enjoy being able to place the occasional wager (and am fortunate that I have the means to do so).
Keith Law: Yes, it should be legalized, regulated, and taxed. It’s going to happen anyway; better to generate some state revenue from it, and also police potential malfeasance. I think weed should be legalized as well and handled the same way.

Soto Can Hit!: Were you saying you did not think Soto’s approach is ready for AA or MLB this year with regards to the earlier question you answered?
Keith Law: Is not ready for MLB right now.

Kevin: Have you had a chance to see Bichette play this year? Numbers look good still, but I don’t know much about the quality of the league to say anything. Still high on him?
Keith Law: Yes, and yes.

JR: Baseball ceases to exist tomorrow, but ESPN honors your contract and lets you choose which other sport to cover. What sport do you pick?
Keith Law: Lacrosse.

Anthony: Who do you view as being the most likely prospect from your offseason top 100 to come up next? With Mejia’s injury, Senzel’s vertigo, etc., is anyone closer than Adames (possibly) in late June?
Keith Law: Vlad could really come up at any point, although I’m not predicting it just yet. Or Robles, when he returns from the DL.

PD: A lot of the top Pirates draft picks from last year (Baz, Jennings, Uselton) aren’t currently playing in leagues (held back in extended?). Is this a sign of a more conservative organizational approach or does this raise concerns about their current ability?
Keith Law: All in extended. All three HS kids, very young, also probably managing the two pitchers’ innings.

Mike: Nathaniel Lowe has been tearing the cover off the ball in A+. What have you been hearing about him?
Keith Law: Nothing, since he’s an older 1b repeating the level.

Chris: I’ve always loved your redraft columns, do you think you’ll have time to add a 2007 one now that you’re not writing a book?
Keith Law: No, probably not. The editors last year wanted me to redraft 2012, not 2007, but I said it was too soon for that.

Justin : Which of the Pulitzer fiction novels that you read is most accessible for your average reader?
Keith Law: To Kill a Mockingbird or The Yearling.

Steve: how close is Brendan Rodgers to being MLB ready?
Keith Law: I think I’m seeing him Monday, so maybe ask me next chat!

Concerned: Recently got my daughter her first round of shots, and my family was concerned that we didn’t spread them out more. I don’t agree with them, but why are they wrong?
Keith Law: They are wrong because they don’t really understand anything about biology. The human immune system is exposed to thousands of potential pathogens every day, even those of infants or toddlers (who put everything in their mouths). The tiny number of weak or dead viruses in vaccines are a drop in the ocean to our bodies. And thank you for vaccinating, both for taking good care of your daughter and for helping maintain herd immunity for those who can’t be vaccinated.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you as always for reading. The 2008 draft busts piece will go up on Saturday rather than tomorrow, so please keep an eye out for that as well. As for the next chat, bear with me as I’m not sure yet when it will be. Enjoy your weekends!

My first mock draft for 2018 is now up for Insiders.

Keith Law: Money only pays the rent. Klawchat.

Tyler: I can only scout the stat line, but I’d guess with 9 BB in 11.1 innings that Josh Staumont still hasn’t figured it out? Career minor leaguer?
Keith Law: He’ll get major league opportunities, but the strike-throwing has always been the problem. The delivery is fine, the stuff is plus, the dude can’t throw it over the pointy white thing.

Chase: Do you think it’s a mistake for the Cardinals to have Jordan Hicks as a reliever before ever giving him a chance to start? Seems like they don’t mention him getting a chance like their other young arms that start in the BP.
Keith Law: On the contrary, I like breaking in starters as relievers. Earl Weaver pioneered this, and I’ve never seen any harm in it other than that teams sometimes shoot themselves in the foot by liking a guy so much in relief they forget to start him.

addoeh: How great would it be for Ichiro to retire after getting a couple of at bats when the Mariners play the A’s in Japan next year?
Keith Law: And an inning. There has to be one more inning on the mound before he goes.

BigPapaChuck: How far out are Kyle Wright and Ian Anderson for Atlanta? Could we see them this summer at all, or is 2019 more realistic?
Keith Law: Ian Anderson has a 5+ ERA through 5 starts in high-A. That’s just not a realistic question. Wright is closer and we have seen plenty of starters go from the SEC to the majors inside of 15 months.

Justin R: Who would say no to a 10-year, $300 million extension for Mookie Betts right now?
Keith Law: I don’t think either side would say no; Dombrowski hardly shies away from super-long extensions.

Ben: When is a middling team like the twins considered “done?” It’s probably different for a stacked underachieving team like the Dodgers, but for a team that needed to exceed expectations to make the playoffs and has struggled mightily, is there a certain point where they should look to sell?
Keith Law: In most cases, I’d say wait till Memorial Day before making any serious decisions like that. I would make an exception for the Orioles on Machado – they are not going anywhere this year, in that division, with that pitching staff, and there’s a clear need for Machado on at least one contender. Trading him now vs. June or July could really boost the return in a material way.

addoeh: On a 20-80 scale, how bad of a travel day was yesterday for you? Wake up in a hotel in one city two hours before the sun rises, fly to different part of the country, drive another two hours to see watch prospects, make the two return trip after the game, and a red eye back home.
Keith Law: So for folks who don’t know what my schedule was, I saw Jarred Kelenic in Kenosha, WI, on Wednesday evening (he was good); drove to Midway to stay that night; woke up at 5:10 am CDT to fly to Atlanta; landed an hour late due to weather; drove two hours to Ringgold, Georgia, to see Cole Wilcox (good) vs Kumar Rocker (not); drove back into Atlanta traffic, so probably spent three hours total on the way down, stopping for dinner (Recess at Krog Street Market, which was fantastic); then had my flight home delayed an hour because some part on the jetbridge shorted out and caught fire. I crawled into bed at 2 am ET. I don’t think this is unusual for scouts, so I’m not doing a “woe is me” thing here, but holy shit am I tired.

Dr. Bob: My kids are geeking out over May the Force Be with You day. Do you follow any sci-fi/fantasy stuff? Star Trek? Star Wars? X-Men? Avengers?
Keith Law: Not any more. Loved Star Wars as a kid. Anyway, Happy Cinco de Cuatro!

Larry: The Gorman-Atlanta connection is interesting. What’s your read on his swing and miss, plus chances he stays at third? Can he play corner OF if not?
Keith Law: Lot of swing and miss, but exacerbated this spring by what I think is a new, pull-conscious approach, when the dude should just worry about hitting. He’ll accidentally drop 30 bombs if he hits at all. Right field most likely, but even though he’s not good at third right now, I’d give him at least two years there. Austin Riley was a below-average defender when Atlanta drafted him, worked on it, got in shape, and now he’s at least a 55 defender there (from a 40), maybe even more.

Bret: If you were in Ross Atkins’ shoes, when does Vlad Guerrero Jr. get his first MLB call-up?
Keith Law: August.

Greg: Is Atlanta a legitimate contender for the division title or a wildcard spot?
Keith Law: Probably not, but I’m enjoying watching them anyway. It will be interesting to see if Anthopoulos trades away any prospect depth in July if they’re still in it. They do have some surplus on the pitching side, and guys who may not make their rotation would have value to other clubs.

Sean: What are your thoughts on Joe Gray, Jr? Is he a top 2 round guy?
Keith Law: That’s how I have him ranked.

PJ in JC: Jalen Beeks. A guy or a GUY?
Keith Law: Just a guy, I’m told. I have not seen him.

Jackstradamus: How good do you think Christian Villanueva actually is?
Keith Law: Everyday player, maybe? Not a .660+ SLG guy.

Brian: Before a couple of years ago I don’t remember any position players having Tommy John surgery. Now I can think of at least 4 (Knapp, Torres, Wieters and now Seager). Has something changed about how position players throw?
Keith Law: Craig Wilson, Todd Hundley, John Baker. I think Rocco Baldelli had it. Kyle Blanks. Shin-Soo Choo, but he pitched some as an amateur and threw hard. I think you don’t remember them because they don’t miss as much time.

Prospect Expansion Pack: Have you seen/ heard anything about Luis Robert or Juan Pablo Martinez this spring?
Keith Law: Neither has played.

Jack: Jeter Downs is playing second with Jose Israel Garcia at SS. If Downs moves to a higher level before Garcia, do you think he moves back to short?
Keith Law: Yes, if only for maintaining some flexibility.

Matthew: What is your take on the Braves calling up Bautista today? I think it’s a good move but Braves twitter is not so sure.
Keith Law: Eh. Worth seeing if there’s anything left.

JT: Do you find it exhausting to constantly have to swat at proliferating hate online? I found an old friend online this week, only to discover that he believes in climate denial, racial essentialism and Jordan Peterson. I’m tired.
Keith Law: Yes, but I feel an obligation. I have a sizable platform. I could just use it to promote myself, but I think I should try to use it to do some good in the world.

leprekhan: You mentioned Nolan Gorman as being connected to the Braves in your mock, are there any other names that they have been connected to? How strong of a possibility is Kumar Rocker at #8?
Keith Law: I don’t think there’s any chance they do Rocker there. He’s not good enough, and yesterday didn’t help his chances.

286: What is DL Hall’s ceiling for the Orioles?
Keith Law: Above-average or better big league starter.

Jack: Is Dennis Santana’s changeup a legit enough third pitch to make him a potential #3?
Keith Law: No. Not a starter’s delivery the last time I saw him, either.

Steve: Is Stanton’a slow start just SSS streakiness, or something mechanical?
Keith Law: Homeboy’s slow start is still a .336 wOBA, so it’s more than he has hit for a month the way he hit all of last year. I’m not concerned.

Chris: What’s the deal with Senzel getting pulled from the game yesterday. I really hope this isn’t the vertigo revisiting.
Keith Law: Dizziness, per C. Trent Rosecrans & Guildenstern, Attorneys at I Don’t Make the Lineup.

Travis: Reports are that Cole Wilcox was amazing last night. How high could he go? Have any teams emerged as likely landing spots?
Keith Law: I was there. He was very good; amazing might be pushing it. I had him in the new mock and believe he goes in the top 20 or so picks.

Garrett: Has Ohtani’s hot start at the dish changed your mind at all? He destroys the baseball almost every time he is up. Or is it still too few PA’s?
Keith Law: It’s 55 AB. And no, he doesn’t destroy the baseball almost every time he is up. Good grief.

Chris: I see Gore hasn’t pitched in full action since his first start. Any cause to worry about an injury?
Keith Law: Blister.

Ben G: Hey Keith,

Do you share Mike Rizzo’s belief that Juan Soto has a similar outlook as a prospect to Robles?
Keith Law: Similar upside, yes. Different player. I’ll see him Monday here in Wilmington along with Kieboom.

EricVA: Justus Sheffield to AAA. Can he help the Yankees this year or not until next year?
Keith Law: This year if needed. Wouldn’t object to a relief role to start for him.

Ron Shelton: I think the real-life Nuke LaLoosh has finally arrived and his name is Matt Manning.
Keith Law: Where are the Tigers fans who were extremely mad online when I didn’t rank Manning in my top 100?
Keith Law: FTR, I don’t think the book is closed on Manning, but he had serious control problems last year and didn’t show the same velocity he had in HS.

Todd: Who has a better major league career, Michael Gettys or Buddy Reed?
Keith Law: Neither.

286: Dylan Bundy has had two rough starts in a row. Is that a byproduct of the calcification in his shoulder? How long can he hold up?
Keith Law: No healthy pitcher has ever had two rough starts in a row. I’m so glad you brought this to our attention.

JT: Have you heard of the QAnon nonsense on Twitter and Facebook? Is there any way for those platforms to rid themselves of such obvious misinformation?
Keith Law: Those platforms just don’t do enough to rid themselves of trolls, bots, etc. There’s a Twitter account with a decent following whose profile quotes the Turner Diaries (a notorious anti-Semitic, racist trash novel revered by neo-Nazis). I reported it. They said “no violation.”

Marissa: Hi Keith. I am wondering how much you think Mets fans should buy into Alonso’s numbers and if you think he will/has passed Dom in terms of how highly the Mets look into him as the future 1B.
Keith Law: I answered this last week. I’m a believer.

Adam D.: With the full understanding that it’s way too early to be sure about anything, what level of confidence do you have that Singer is the pick for the Giants at #2? I am not enthusiastic about it, as you might have noticed.
Keith Law: I have heard them with four players; he and Bart are the two most likely, again, given what I’ve heard from #sources.
Keith Law: I share your lack of enthusiasm. I have never understood the fascination with Singer. There are guys with better stuff, and better deliveries, and better command in this draft.

Joe: What makes Lucchesi’s two pitch mix effective (where other starters can’t survive with just two) and do you think he can have long term success with just two pitches?
Keith Law: Hitters do not pick up pitches well at all from him. His release point is extremely consistent.

Jack: What were your grades on Nomar Mazara’s raw and game power as a prospect? The guy looks like he should be hitting 35 a year and he doesn’t hit any cheap bombs, but his overall approach doesn’t always get to the pop.
Keith Law: I don’t do grades any more – people would focus way too much on the numbers and not on the words, and I am not fucking interested in arguing if a player has 60 speed or 65 speed, sorry – but I always thought he’d be a 30-homer guy. He did have plus raw even when young.

Joe: You mocked Gorman to the Braves at 8. Do you think n he is the highest upside power hsbat in draft? And would you take him that high?
Keith Law: He has the most raw power in the draft, period. I would not take him there, because the hit tool really worries me, but that’s not to say this is a bad pick.

1904 MDB: Fernando Tatis JR. starting to catch fire, where does he end the year?
Keith Law: Probably triple-A.

Didier: Do you ever read comics or graphic novels? Any favorites?
Keith Law: No, not a fan.

Dave: Is Bobby Witt Jr someone who could end up being the next “super prospect”, like Harper or Griffey?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. Good prospect, but also just the name you know because of his bloodlines.

Mike: Assuming Josh can play third base, no way the Jays can call up Vlad and stick him at DH……right?
Keith Law: Why not? Vlad was rough at third the last game I saw him, and his bat is clearly going to be ready before his glove.

Roger: If I, a regular old fan, wanted to find out information about a minor leaguer I’m interested in, what’s the best way to find out if he’s a GUY or just a guy? Scouting the stat line is only so helpful.
Keith Law: I write about a few hundred guys every January in the prospect package and then write about more every week, here and on Insider posts.

Jack: I just gave up on Corey Ray. Am I dumb?
Keith Law: Too soon. Plus, you hurt his feelings.

Ryan: While totally aware that Albies can’t sustain this HR pace, is it safe to expect some legit power out of him going further without sacrificing average and OBP?
Keith Law: I guess it depends on “legit;” 20 homers/year? Sure. I’ll buy that.

Archie: I see a lot of Joe Panik in Madrigal, albeit from the other side of the plate and with more speed. Is that a fair comp?
Keith Law: I like Madrigal’s bat a lot more than I liked Panik’s at the same age.

Lilith: What would it realistically take to get MLB to place a 3rd team in the New York area? (either Brooklyn or Newark)
Keith Law: Revoking MLB’s antitrust exemption. I don’t expect that to happen in my lifetime.

Tyler: Hi Keith. Do you think Sonny Gray can get back to his A’s form?
Keith Law: Yes, but they’ll have to change his pitch mix and get him to try to work four-seamers up again.

Satya: How does Casey Mize compare to Kyle Wright as a draft prospect?
Keith Law: Mize is way better.
Keith Law: Wright had size. Mize has better stuff, better command/control.

Moltar: Thanks for chatting, Keith. Your info is always solid so I’m sure it’s motivated, but India to the Mets at 6 was very surprising. Most reports I saw on him had him more sandwich round than top 10. Was this more a function of Bart, Bohm and Madrigal being off the board in your mock? If the Mets are intent on a college bat, do they clearly prefer India to, say, Swaggerty?
Keith Law: Again, this is all based on what I’ve heard from sources in the industry. Nobody in the industry thinks India is a sandwich pick. Swaggerty is barely hitting above .300 in a bad conference where he’s faced almost no quality pitching. I like the profile – CF with some pop, good eye, plus speed – but he has to actually hit, and his swing has slipped a little bit this spring.

Pat D: I just heard Harold Reynolds on WFAN and he said, and I am quoting, “The more pitches you take, the less chance you’re going to walk.” Now, he was trying to say that young guys who are struggling have to prove they can hit because otherwise pitchers will eventually just throw strikes by them. But, much more importantly, COME ON, am I right?
Keith Law: You made several mistakes there, starting with listening to Harold Reynolds on WFAN.

Phillip : Is bringing up Jose Bautista before seeing what you really have in Camargo a mistake?
Keith Law: Camargo isn’t a long-term piece.

John: What’s Fernando Romero’s upside, Wed he was throwing hard and it looked like both the FB and the slider had decent movement.
Keith Law: Top 100 guy for me the last two years. I think mid-rotation starter.

PJ in JC: Follow up on Beeks: does his ability to miss bats suggest he could at least be a weapon in the bullpen?
Keith Law: Yes.

Edward: Tyler Mahle has been striking out hitters at a higher rate in the bigs than any stop before in his career. Has he found another gear or pitch? Or just another sample size situation?
Keith Law: Aren’t strikeouts higher in general in the majors?

Rendall: I’m glad that Facebook has made eliminating fake profiles and fake news part of their new marketing campaign. Meanwhile, my feed continues to be full of it…
Keith Law: Yep. All talk, no action.

Darren: YOu mentioned Jordan Hicks so I’m curious, what would you do with Hader if you were GM? Have him start when Knebel gets back and ramp up his innings to be able to go 6 in the playoffs? If they make it.
Keith Law: I have always had a hard time seeing Hader starting with that arm action. He may truly have more value in this role than he could in 170 innings starting.

Dave in Delaware: Hi, Keith! Are there any players (HS or college) worthy of scouting time or attention in Delaware this year? If so, have you seen them?
Keith Law: I saw one kid, UVA commit, nice player but should go to school. I won’t see the three at Cape Henlopen, just due to distance and that they’re not top 100 guys, but all are d1 commits (UNC, UVA, Liberty) and could be top 100 types in three years.

Jacob: How close is the talent gap between Jarred Kelenic and Connor Scott? Is the difference the lengthy track record that Kelenic possess?
Keith Law: I think Kelenic has shown a lot more at the plate, hitting and especially power.

Josh: What are your thoughts on Matt Klentak? It seems like he’s really struggled with his first two drafts
Keith Law: He doesn’t run the draft; that’s Johnny Almaraz, their scouting director. This is a bit like that tweet I responded to a week ago, where Frank Wren was trying to take credit for Ronald Acuña – no GM sees the $100K kid his international director signs in Venezuela. That’s absurd. I think the Phils’ rebuild is very much on track, and I think it’s fair to say the Phillies have struggled badly with their last few first round picks, even predating Klentak – Cornelius Randolph doesn’t appear like he’ll ever justify going 10th overall, and Moniak and Haseley have been an unnatural disaster in Clearwater (Moniak .218/.231/.257, Haseley .271/.284/.355, a combined 4 walks and 46 K for the two of them).

Gary: Team needs or drafting philosophies notwithstanding, would it be a bad choice to take Madrigal 2nd after Mize? Reading through your mock, it seems like he has the best chance to be a productive big leaguer from the rest of the pool.
Keith Law: I think that’s a high floor and very limited ceiling pick. If you do that, you had better save enough to go well over slot in the second round.

Dave: What position do you think Mountcastle ends up at for Baltimore?
Keith Law: Most likely left field, but I’d keep trying to work on the throwing motion and see if he can stay at third. Dude’s gonna hit, though.

RSO: Is it possible for pitchers to boost their spin rate as much as some of the Astros starters have since coming to Houston, or do you think there is something fishy going on as Trevor Bauer alluded to?
Keith Law: I didn’t like when Bauer appeared to be accusing the Astros without directly saying so. His longer comments – no character limits! – were excellent, though: It is true that adhering something like pine tar to the ball can raise its spin rate, and that it is technically prohibited but scarcely if ever enforced. My understanding is that there are players doing this stuff now, but I don’t know anything at all about team-wide efforts like he implied.

Jax : Has Norris reached the point when a conversion to the bullpen needs to be discussed? Poor guy cannot stay healthy.
Keith Law: Almost none of this has been related to his arm.

Nick: Jonathan India has put up some sexy numbers this season. I’m intrigued by him after you mocked him to the Mets at 6. Do you think that would be a solid pick at 6 and what type of player do you see him becoming?
Keith Law: Very solid pick. Everyday player. I’d send him out as a shortstop, knowing you could always restore him to third or slide him to second.

Jax : I don’t expect Basabe to continue to put up these massive numbers but do you think he’s doing so because he’s repeating High-A? Or because he’s fully healthy now? Or a bit of both?
Keith Law: Almost certainly both.

Matt: Patrick Corbin’s fastball was down 3 MPH last night from his season average. He and Lovullo brushed it off as nothing, but that’s concerning right? How often does a guy lose velocity like that so dramatically and bounce right back to where he was? I honestly don’t know if this is something that happens or if this is an imminent sign of injury.
Keith Law: It’s concerning because it’s happened before. Corbin looks like a #2 at times, but has he ever held that for a full season?

Joe : Hey Keith, love the chats. If you could choose to have the Chapman or Andrew Miller return that the Yanks got back which would you take moving forward?
Keith Law: I think at the time I said I preferred the Miller return. That’s probably still true, but less clear.

Jax : Eric Longenhagen said that Christian Arroyo could possibly have a Solarte type of role and play all over the diamond while hitting fairly well? Would you agree with that assessment?
Keith Law: I’m not sure he’s going to be as good defensively anywhere, but that seems more likely an outcome to me than everyday player at one spot.

Dan: Walker Buehler seemingly has a rotation spot that’s his to lose with the Ryu injury. How has Buehler looked so far this season? Where do you think they’ll cap his innings if he’s pitching well and the team is contending?
Keith Law: Didn’t they give a number before the season, as a rough target? I may be misremembering. Anyway, I would expect them to have him skip a start here or there because he’s never really had a full, healthy season.

Chaya: I know he’s young and it’s still early, but are you concerned at all about Heliot Ramos?
Keith Law: Not just young – he’s 18, younger than some guys in this draft class, and in full-season ball. I didn’t think the huge summer was indicative of stardom, but I also am not jumping off the Golden Gate now after a bad month. This is a big leap for a kid that young who was already a little raw at the plate.

Brett: What do you see as Yordan Alvarez’s ceiling? Does he have all-star upside?
Keith Law: Above-average regular.

Jax : Your Astros sleeper Arauz has more walks than Ks and is hitting for far more power than he ever has while being a teenager in full season ball. Trajectory is certainly pointing way up, no?
Keith Law: Yes it is … as long as he stays off the juice.

Gray: Still no Juan Soto questions? Has Cooperstown started working on his plaque yet? Kid rakes.
Keith Law: Answered a half hour ago. Scroll back.

nelson: What do you think about other sports’ draft coverage? For me, I find stuff like NFL draft coverage to be extremely dull, full of “woo”, and totally mindless. Enjoy your coverage bc it’s based on knowledge you glean from conversations and not just 40 times.
Keith Law: I can’t imagine covering a draft with 15 minutes between picks. I do love that they have trades – our draft would be so much better with that. The NBA’s draft is the best on TV, IMO, because it’s only a few minutes between picks, the players are all there (in their sartorial splendor), and there can still be trades.

RSO: If Gleyber Torres was still in the Cubs organization would Addison Russell or Javier Baez be in danger of losing their jobs?
Keith Law: Yes, Russell more so. He seems to have stalled at the plate.
Keith Law: I’m most concerned with how he isn’t making hard contact like he used to.

Luke (Statesboro, Ga.): Is this the year Jorge Soler figures it out?
Keith Law: It sure looks like he has. He lost a lot of time to injuries, and although I always rated him highly I don’t think I ever projected him to be an OBP monster.

Pat: Hypothetical- If something happened to Mize (injury, bad medicals, whatever), who do you think Detroit would go with at 1-1.
Keith Law: Entirely fair question. My guess is they would shop a deal to 3-4 players, probably including Stewart, Singer, Bart, maybe Liberatore. Most folks I asked for that mock just assumed they’d take Mize, so I’m a little light on other info there.

Sean: How has Cal Quantrill looked so far this season?
Keith Law: What I’ve heard has been good – lot of 92-95, still working on better strikes, has really had just one bat outing out of six.

Ryan: Thanks for chatting Keith. If you are placing the top draft prospects into tiered buckets, at what slots do they move from Tier I to Tier II, Tier II to Tier III, etc?
Keith Law: Mize is in his own tier. I’d reorder that last top 50, with Winn, Bart, and India sliding up and Rocker, Vasil, McClanahan sliding down, and I’d put a line between those groups.
Keith Law: No more word on Vasil’s injury; he may throw a pen this week. It was irresponsible to have him throw an unscheduled relief inning that Saturday, two days before a scheduled start. Scouts were there Monday for the start, not Saturday.

Jim: You were high on Bryse Wilson – think you ranked him Top 60ish in your Top 100 – he’s been great this year. Assuming still a SP prospect for you?
Keith Law: Yep, all signs pointing up.

Craig: Are you doing the usual prospect update in May? Is Yordan Alvarez going to be one of the big risers
Keith Law: 1b only limits his ceiling. My May updates are cursory and usually only include 25 names, with just brief updates on injuries/promotions; I doubt he’d jump that far.

John: How do you think the Nats will approach the draft?
Keith Law: Same as always. They’ll take well-known guys with big upsides. Maybe an injured pitcher who fell.
Keith Law: Hell, it’s worked for them in the past.

JR: Kentucky Derby – interested or hard pass? Personally, I’ve never understood the appeal of horse racing.
Keith Law: I’ll watch. I don’t bet, and I don’t follow the sport. It’s a fun two minutes, though.

Walker: What happened to Jordan Swaggerty?
Keith Law: One g. Blew out and never really made it back.
Keith Law: Threw 26 innings total after TJ, missing all of 2012 and 2014.

Jon: Could vaccine hoaxers actually be harming efforts to find a cause/cure for autism? With so many studies focused on disproving the link between the two, doesn’t that take away from funding and studies that could be used to find a cause/cure?
Keith Law: I think they’re harming societal acceptance of autistic people, who are still more often lumped in with people who have mental disabilities rather than being classed as neurodiverse, as many autistic advocates would like to be.

Nick: What is Trent Grisham at this point? Can he still be an everyday player or better?
Keith Law: He’s on the DL with an ankle sprain right now, so let’s give him some time back at AA.

Jack: Have you watched Matt Boyd at all this year? Thoughts? I vaguely remember you being a fan through his struggles past couple years
Keith Law: Not a fan at all – thought he’d be excessively homer-prone, and he was. This year looks like a stone fluke – his FIP is over 4 and that’s even with a lower than normal HR/9.

JR: Is it time for Lauren Mayberry to thank the other members of Chvrches for the memories and great times and head out on her own? The new record is blah. Feel like she’s peaked with them and it’s time for her to go solo.
Keith Law: I completely agree on this. She has untapped upside. This album is kind of embarrassingly bad – not just blah, but a big step down in lyrical and musical quality.

Ian: So, is Junot Diaz now canceled?
Keith Law: Apparently so.

Ted: I know it’s early but Micker Adolfo off to a great start. He isn’t typically discussed as a top WS prospect but is he making a leap?
Keith Law: I’ve talked him up in their org reports for at least two years – enormous physical tools, but could barely play the sport when he signed. (That’s not an exaggeration.) He might not be a solid big leaguer till he’s 25 but the upside is really huge.

Jeremy: At the same time that Alonso is killing it, has Dom Smith’s stock fallen?
Keith Law: No, but he’s also not helping anyone, himself included, back in triple-A.

Adam: As the young talent on the Padres collectively struggle at the major league level, how many more years does Andy Green get before his seat starts getting warm?
Keith Law: That roster doesn’t have much of that system’s young talent at all.

Joe: What are your thoughts on Sean Reid-Foley?
Keith Law: Saw him two weeks ago. 92-95, but hitters seemed to be on it. Slider was often plus, but it merged with his curveball at lower velocities. Didn’t see a changeup. Off one look, I’d say he needs some third pitch to start – something for lefties, and just to keep righties from sitting on the fastball.

Gil: We can live with a persistent high K rate for Moncada with these types of slugging and wRC+ numbers, right? He seems to be coming into his own.
Keith Law: He has a .414 BABIP. Sure, you could live with that, but has any hitter in history sustained it?

Andy: Re Ghost: They seem to be dropping more of the Satanic things, and just going with a kind of Medieval theme. Also, they are no longer putting as much on the anonymity as Tobias Forge has done interviews out of character about the “band.”
Keith Law: Which is so much better. This is good, fun, throwback metal. Let that speak for itself. The black-metal stuff is at best tired, at worst really offensive (given the church burnings and ties to anti-semitism/xenophobic movements).

Rick: Mets have fallen back to earth. Adrian Gonzalez is still getting at bats. Nimmo can’t get at bats. Is it Callaway or Alderson?
Keith Law: Alderson has the hammer on that.

Dave: Keith, starting see a lot of connections between the A’s and Swaggerty, including your mock draft. Is this more a case of the A’s liking Swaggerty in particular, or the A’s liking a college bat and Swaggerty seems the most likey to fall to #9?
Keith Law: Good college bat who was previously projected to go much higher. There’s a value play in that.

Dave: Keith, do you think Joey Bart can be a middle of the order bat in the majors?
Keith Law: Yes, but in the 4-5-6 sense, not a 2 hitter. High power, low average guy.

Don: Better lawyer, Lionel Hutz or Rudy Giuliani?
Keith Law: Rudy Giuliani is such a bad lawyer, he would have lost a false advertising suit against The Neverending Story.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – got some life stuff to catch up on before the school day ends. Thank you all for your questions this week and for reading. I expect to be back next Thursday for another chat. Enjoy your weekends and #fyeahbaseball!

My latest Insider post looks at four potential first-round arms for this June’s draft.

Keith Law: Seeing their children caught up in the latest Klawchat.

Mike : Would the Padres have been better off starting Tatis Jr. in high A?
Keith Law: Is this an overreaction to a slow April? No.

J: Is Mitch White hurt? Was trying to locate where he is assigned and what he is doing…?
Keith Law: Yes, he’s in extended.

addoeh: Given your the book you were reading earlier in the week; whose solo career do you prefer, Peter Gabriel or Phil Collins?
Keith Law: I don’t know Gabriel’s work between leaving Genesis and So well enough to answer that.

Megatron: Hey Keith, thanks as always for these chats. My question is about the White Sox double play combo. How are Anderson and Moncada putting up such good numbers (in fWAR, wRC+, OPS, etc.) despite sky high strikeout rates?
Keith Law: Only Moncada’s K rate is sky high, and his .385 BABIP won’t last either. Anderson has a 22% K rate, and he already has more than half as many walks in 2018 as he did in all of 2017 or 2016.

Alex: Per Fangraphs, Javy Baez’s ’17 wRC+ was 98, so far in ’18 he’s at 186 (SSS I know as less than 100 PAs). What’s a realistic full season expectation?
Keith Law: His rate stats are skewed by the 4 IBB he’s received (and only 2 unintentional, which I assume happened because the pitcher sneezed mid-delivery). I think a well above-average wRC+ is reasonable, something in the 120s, driven by power and what appears to be a consistent .330ish BABIP ability.

Dante: What’s the most obscure place you’ve traveled to see a prospect?
Keith Law: Kendallville, Indiana, to see Jarrod Parker; or Baxley, Georgia, to see Byron Buxton. Baxley was 2:40 from Macon, which is itself nearly 2 hours from Atlanta.

Steve Dalkowski: Has Severino made any changes to his delivery (or to his body) that would make you think there’s less chance of a breakdown in the next couple of years than you originally thought?
Keith Law: He has bulked up a lot, but I don’t think we know if that reduces breakdown risk, so I’d say no. Hell, anyone throwing that hard that regularly is probably at a higher than average risk, since one of the few things we know contributes to injury is regularly pitching with high (for you) velocity.

Frank: seems like the Yankees signing machado this offseason to a massive deal wouldn’t make sense anymore given didi, andujar, and gleyber look like long term pieces in the infield. what do you think?
Keith Law: Machado is a clear upgrade over Andujar anyway, so even though I believe Andujar will be at least an average regular, trading him and signing Machado still makes the team better.

Sonny Gray: WTF is wrong with me?
Keith Law: I discussed that with Buster on the podcast today. It might be about pitching style, not injury or stuff.

Grant: Keith, I know you’ve read Hyperion, but have you ready any other Dan Simmons? I’m currently reading The Terror and really enjoying it so far.
Keith Law: No, just Hyperion.

Glen: Andujar has been phenomenal lately, but am I wrong to be concerned he might be Maikel Franco?
Keith Law: Much better approach than Franco at the same age.

Tom F: What’s your take on Adbert Alzolay? Future 3-4 starter potential or bullpen guy in the bigs eventually? Doesn’t seem to have a ton of strikeout stuff
Keith Law: Future 3-4 starter. Reliever in the majors this year.

Mike: Is the third-time-through-the-order penalty just a fancy name for looking at pitch count? Is there anything to suggest that facing the 19th hitter on 70 pitches is harder than facing the 18th hitter (after adjusting for hitter quality of course)?
Keith Law: Yes, the data indicate that both variables are contributing factors: Increasing pitch count and hitter familiarity.

Mike: I feel like most 21-year-olds who put up a .300/.340/.540 line in AAA with 13 HR/18 SB in a half season at a premium position would have gotten a lot more press than Adalberto Mondesi did, probably because he’d already been so bad in the majors and lost his rookie status. Do you think there’s any reason to think he’s just a quad-A player or does he still have a good shot at a career?
Keith Law: More than a 4A guy, but doing that in AAA after you’ve played two months in the majors (and seen MLB pitching) is less impressive or predictive than doing it when you’ve never been above AA.

Darren: Hi Keith,
I would love to hear you discuss Didi and his growth. We knew he had a stellar glove but I dont’ think anyone saw this coming. Following in the footsteps of Jeter was one thing, ridding himself of the defense first guy took work, but now he is looking like one of the best all around players in MLB. Impressive.
Keith Law: Remember when Kevin Towers (RIP) comped him to Jeter, and everyone, myself included, scoffed? Guess Kevin out-scouted us all. I thought Didi had a swing geared for power but nowhere near the strength for it. He’s gotten a lot stronger, and the ball itself has helped him (is it a coincidence that he never hit 10 homers in a season until 2016?). The part that seems even more out-of-nowhere, and that might also indicate that he really is a top ten player in the AL, is that he’s suddenly walking like crazy without any increase in K rate.

BRM: Have you looked at the GenCon event list and if so, what are you looking forward to?
Keith Law: I glanced at it, but haven’t signed up for anything yet because I am finalizing my panel schedule in the writers’ symposium too.

Alex: Are there any San Diego area HS players I should make a point to go see?
Keith Law: Not this year. Only three SoCal prep players on my top 50 – Turang, Winn, McClain.

Greta: Hello Keith. Ever read any Hubert Selby, Jr.? If not, I’d recommend starting with Last Exit to Brooklyn or Requiem for a Dream.
Keith Law: I haven’t, and knowing what little I know about those books, I don’t think I’d like either.

Drew: Do you think the NL East will remain this competitive all season, or do you expect the Nats will begin to dominate the division once Rendon, Eaton, and Murphy return?
Keith Law: I would still pick the Nats to win the division. Dominate is too strong, and it doesn’t really matter if they win by one game or ten.

Kevin S.: In the minors, Tyler Austin’s performance got him on the back end of a couple top-100 lists ahead of the 2013 season, at which point he started suffering some really unfortunate injuries. He made it to the bigs, but struggled in limited playing time. Now that he’s healthy and playing with Bird out, he’s really tearing the cover off the ball. Is this just SSS theater, or is he starting to fulfill that promise he flashed five years ago?
Keith Law: Always loved the swing, wrist injuries killed him, so I’m happy to see this production … but you can’t strike out 1/3 of the time and produce like this over the long haul. Something has to give either way.

Josue: You linked to an article that claimed a white supremacist was running for School Board in North Dakota, but the article failed to provide a shred of evidence. I acknowledge he could actually be a real white supremacist, but why didn’t you link to a better article, if so? It essentially just interviews a few people who say they “heard” he is one and another person says he’s on the SPLC’s website as a white supremacist. With all the blunders of the SPLC, such as labeling muslim activist Maajid Nawaz an Islamophobe, or Ayaan Hirsi Ali an “anti-muslim extremist”, why would any logical person take the word of this organization? Who needs evidence when anyone with a different opinion is a white supremacist though, right?
Keith Law: The evidence is that he ran a neo-Nazi party, helped run Stormfront for nearly a decade and was once the assistant to David Duke. You’re also making a specious claim about the SPLC – if they’re wrong on one or two subjective assessments, you want to throw out all their assessments? That says more about you than about the SPLC.
Keith Law: I guess we know he has your vote, though!

Kay: Justin Dunn has had a much better start to this season – still profile as a potential top end starter?
Keith Law: Yes.

Darren: Hello Keith,
I have been a fan of Ahmed Rosario and any discussion recently has people I chat with suggesting he is a better baseball player than fantasy without an impressive offensive upside. Little strike zone discipline or bad/aggressive approach, average hit tool. I know he is young for a lot of power to come, but what do you see his offensive upside being? What would be a reasonable expectation? Thanks for everything.
Keith Law: I think more than an average hit tool. He’s still young and has the same plus bat speed and physical projection he’s always had.

AJ: Why aren’t more teams willing to “buy” prospects, like Atlanta did taking Arroyo’s contract in order to get Toussaint? It seems that several rebuilding teams (ChiSox, Phillies) had the payroll room to absorb a bad contract in order to further bolster their farm systems. Thanks.
Keith Law: I think teams do this in larger transactions – moving money, taking a bad contract for a good one, taking your long contract for my three one-year deals – but deals like the Touki trade, which was “prospect + contract for org player,” look too much like the straight sale of a player and that would be discouraged by the league.

Rodney: Love your chats! I understand why you don’t like ranking players before they have time in pro ball. Has Griffin Canning played enough to give you a sense of where he ranks among Angels prospects?
Keith Law: I ranked him in January, but four starts/16 innings wouldn’t change that.

Tim: Is Peter Alonso the best 1B in the Mets org right now?
Keith Law: I still think Smith would be fine if the Mets would just play him, but Alonso would be a top 100 prospect now (given some graduations & new looks at him) and I think he’s an above-average regular at least.
Keith Law: Maybe Smith will show up on time if he thinks someone is right behind him…

Andy: Where do you think Gregory Polanco’s ceiling is after his first few seasons in the Majors? He’s frustratingly erratic in his on-field production.
Keith Law: Ceiling? Still All-Star. Dude walks, doesn’t strike out excessively, runs, has power, has bat speed … and has a .200 BABIP. I hate to just point to that one number, but good grief, you almost have to try to be that bad on balls in play.

Jo-Nathan: July 2nd guys have verbal agreements????? Do you think the MLB comes down any other teams for this practice?
Keith Law: No, they don’t care. You can only break the rules that they tell you it’s OK to break. Atlanta broke different rules.
Keith Law: The problem is this system incentivizes such rule-breaking. Don’t be surprised when smart people get creative and try end runs around your idiotic method of limiting payouts to Dominician teenagers.

JJ: Last year, the Cardinals had Carson Kelly on the bench behind Yadi Molina for the season, and he basically never played. This year, it’s Tyler O’Neill, basically doing the same thing. The writers at the St. Louis Post Dispatch insist that the youngsters gain a lot from sitting on the bench of the big league club. Wouldn’t they be better off playing every day in Memphis?
Keith Law: Yes. Or playing even semi-regularly in the majors. But that’s not the Matheny way.

Greg: Was watching Tyson Ross go for a 200 pitch no-hitter last week. When he hit 120 pitches, the announcers said “That matches his career high… set four days ago.” There needs to be a manager ejector seat, right?
Keith Law: They had it wrong. The near no-hitter was on 4/20 (whoa), and his previous outing was 107 pitches on the 13th.

Kay: Was reading about Gsellman taking a spot in the rotation – but he seems really dominant out of the bullpen, throwing harder and looking like he really embraced the new role. Where does he have the most value going forward?
Keith Law: I’d try him as a starter again.

Moncada: You said my .385 BABIP won’t last- which I agree with. But my batted ball stats and exit velocity do suggest that I am capable of sustaining an above average BABIP, right?
Keith Law: Yes, as would simply seeing the bat speed and hand strength. But that K rate is a huge limiting factor, and probably isn’t going down without major swing changes.

Adam D.: Any early buzz about who the Giants might take at #2? I would like to see an upside play like Stewart, but it seems like the general strength of the college players near the top, combined with their refusal to play the rebuilding game makes them likely to go that route. Thoughts?
Keith Law: The current buzz is that all or at least five of the top six picks will likely be college guys. I wouldn’t rule out Stewart – Dick Tidrow, whose opinion really matters in the Giants’ draft room, saw Stewart’s best outing – but I could see the picks going Mize (1), McClanahan, Bart, Bohm, Madrigal, India, or something similar to that. Bart could go anywhere from 2 to 9, Madrigal maybe 5-9, Bohm 3-6. Mize is atop just about everyone’s boards, even guys who don’t like the delivery.

Jo-Nathan: Luke Heimlich’s numbers are way down from a year ago; Think any team drafts or signs him? If yes is this something potential teammates will/can deal with (I couldn’t imagine being this guy’s teammate or worse roommate on the road)?
Keith Law: At this point, I don’t think so, and I certainly hope not.

Teoscar: I should be playing everyday over Grichuk correct?
Keith Law: I think so.

MittyShorph: Keith, I’ve seen see talk about certain college programs that hurt player’s futures with their abuse of pitchers, odd philosophies, etc. If you were advising a high school senior who could go anywhere and play what programs would you suggest?
Keith Law: I do think the tide is shifting, gradually, as we see programs like Florida and Vanderbilt win with good pitching yet without overusing pitchers in general. They’ve recruited better, and built deep staffs relative to most schools. The reign of the College Coaching Axis of Evil – Graham, Marquess, and the late Garrido – is also coming to an end. But we do still see stupid stuff like UConn blowing out Anthony Kay two years ago. And HS coaches have less accountability. Two days before Mike Vasil walked off the mound holding his elbow, he threw an unscheduled, 20-pitch relief inning. How does that benefit him? It’s not like there were scouts there to see him.

addoeh: Going to Kenosha to scout Kelenic anytime soon?
Keith Law: He plays on a travel team so he’s not necessarily in Kenosha but yes, I’ll go see him in the next 2-3 weeks.

Amy: If Betts and Harper were on the market at the same time, who would receive a bigger contract? Let’s assume both have years like they’re on track for now.
Keith Law: I think Harper. No knock on Betts, though. Both tremendous talents, but Harper has shown he can do even more when he’s healthy.

JJ: I’m assuming this is Jackie Bradley (Junior!)’s last year in Boston — great glove, but he’s a mediocre bat, and about to make the big bucks in arbitration. Who’s better suited for center field in 2019: Benintendi or Betts?
Keith Law: Both can play it. I would guess Betts.

Tommy: Taillon ever be consistent enough to be a true #2 starter?
Keith Law: Yes. Also, is consistency required to be a #2? I’ll take 22 great starts and 8 bad ones.

Tom: When will we be able to gauge the effect of the humidor in Arizona?
Keith Law: Better question for guys who really work directly with the data, but I’d guess two years?

MikeM: Has Jawuan Harris of Rutgers come up in any of your draft scouting? If so what round in the draft is he likely to go in?
Keith Law: He has not.

Matt : I’ve recently started playing Ticket to Ride. Is there enough variation in game play between the editions (Europe/Africa/etc) to warrant purchasing a new one beyond the NA version?
Keith Law: Europe adds three important rule changes (ferries, stations, and tunnels) without changing the core game. Beyond that, you either get significant rules changes (UK, France, Pennsylvania), or just weird boards (Nordics, Switzerland).
Keith Law: Holy crap Albies just homered again.
Keith Law: Albies had 22 homers in pro ball before this year and has 8 in four weeks.

Chris: Do you think Sheldon Neuse has the athleticism and arm to be a average defensive corner outfielder?
Keith Law: I would not move him off the infield. It would reduce his value too much.

Matt : Wife and I are headed to Houston for the 1st time. Any restaurant recommendations?
Keith Law: Been a few years for me. I liked Underbelly a lot. Oxheart shows up on a lot of best of the US lists, but you have to get a reservation well in advance.

Tommy: Chances Julio Urias ever becomes a relevant starting pitcher?
Keith Law: I don’t think any pitcher has come all the way back from that surgery. It’s usually a career-ender.

Kevin: Would Matz be better served as a long reliever? Stuff is there but not for long…
Keith Law: I’d like to see him in a swing role. Shoot for 120 or so innings a year. That role needs to come back, for every team, or we’re going to end up with nine-man bullpens.

Thomas: You mentioned in a recent draft blog that there just aren’t many players as small as Madrigal in the majors. Just curious – how does he compare to Nick Allen, who was thought as a first round talent but slipped due to concerns about his size? Do they have comparable skill sets?
Keith Law: Allen can play shortstop, and well, and I think he’s a better runner than Madrigal. Madrigal plays second, even now, but I know several directors & cross-checkers who think he has the best hit tool in this draft.

Mat Ji: Do you have a favorite quick weeknight dinner that you find yourself making often?
Keith Law: A few. There’s a pad thai recipe in Isa Does It!, a vegan cookbook, that I like to make because it comes together fast … but I usually add egg and/or chicken. I’ll eat tofu, but my daughter, who is an adventurous eater in general, doesn’t care for it.

Chris: How should the Cards handle Kelly and Knizner?
Keith Law: Knizner is another reason Kelly needs to play regularly – or be traded in a big package for someone else. Buster threw out the idea, which has a negative percent change of happening, that the Giants should deal Bumgarner. If that were to come true, the Cards should call and offer Kelly and one of their young SP prospects and at least one of their top OF prospects.
Keith Law: And that’s probably not enough but it would fit for both teams.

Adam: Buxton finished really strong last year yet started this year still in the 8 hole. When healthy will he be given teh chance to put that speed to work near the top of the lineup?
Keith Law: I assume 1) when he’s off the DL and 2) starts hitting well, he’ll move up. I doubt this is permanent.

Len: With Atlanta not having a 3rd round pick, how would that impact their approach to their first two picks, if at all?
Keith Law: Shaves some $ off their draft pool and makes it harder for them to target an over-slot guy in the third round anyway. I doubt it’ll be noticeable to the average Braves fan, but it might mean missing out on a prep arm they liked in that 3rd-4th round range.

Mike: I could be wrong but I don’t remember you writing up Franchy Cordero in the past as his recent promotion didn’t ring a bell. What do you think his future holds?
Keith Law: I’ve written him up a few times. Power and athleticism with a poor approach, especially breaking ball recognition. Maybe a great fourth OF type if the approach doesn’t improve. I’m glad he’s at least getting some AB now, though. El Paso wouldn’t prove much for him.

Steve K: Colton Welker the real deal?
Keith Law: I think he can hit some, but Lancaster is an insane hitter’s park and he’s been atrocious on the road this year, so I think the answer, if you’re looking just at his stat line, is no.
Keith Law: This is a Rockies problem – Asheville (low-A), Lancaster (high-A), and Albuquerque (AAA) are all great hitters’ parks. Tough to tell what’s real for hitters and which pitchers are developing despite their environments.

Sean: How much additional noise do you think the bad early season weather has added to the usual small sample size randomness?
Keith Law: I think it’s affected a lot of players, hitters and pitchers, majors and minors. I’ve talked to players and coaches who at least believe it has affected them or their charges. Hard to, say, throw a plus breaking ball if you’re struggling to feel your fingertips.

Matt: Hi Keith, anything you notice on film as a cause for Taillon’s recent struggles? Velocity and strike rate seem fine — is he living in the zone *too much*, possibly?
Keith Law: Three great outings, two bad ones. I don’t see that as any particular cause for concern.

Steve: Yawkey Way getting changed due to less than absolute evidence of racism by Tom Yawkey? Overreaction to a family that has donated 100s of millions to Boston charities?
Keith Law: The Red Sox were the last of the original clubs to integrate. That’s evidence enough, dude. Also, it’s a fucking street name.

Adam: Now that Chief Wahoo is gone, can we shift our attention back to the Braves and start asking questions about the appropriateness of the Padres nickname as well?
Keith Law: Chief Wahoo is not gone, and “asking questions” about the Padres is troll behavior.

Zac: Is Gleyber Torres a 30 homerun guy?
Keith Law: Isn’t everyone?
Keith Law: I think he’s a high-average guy but maybe 15-20 HR power. He can hit – swing, recognition, two-strike approach, it’s all there.

Charlie: Is #1 starter still Newcomb’s ceiling if he continues to throw in the low 90’s? He is walking less but does not have the overpowering fastball.
Keith Law: This tweet aged very poorly in the five minutes since you submitted it. And no, I don’t think Newcomb really has the command or even control for that. I don’t think I ever thought he had #1 ceiling, but could be remembering wrong.

Anthony: I saw Zach Lowther at Aberdeen last year and have been monitoring him at Delmarva. Is he a guy to keep an eye on or will the lack of velocity catch up with him at the higher levels?
Keith Law: Huge extension and spin on the fastball. Hitters don’t see it. Ceiling is limited but he is something.

Joe: Keith, you’ve done a good job of educating your readers about the pitfalls of putting too much stock in short sample sizes. At the same time, early knowledge of whether a player has lost or gained a step can provide strategic advantages. How do you strike the appropriate balance?
Keith Law: That’s what scouting, and now Statcast data, can provide, at least for teams.

Amy: Wait, you think Kelly to SF? And Buster to…1B? With Belt traded?
Keith Law: The Giants are heavy on Georgia Tech catcher Joey Bart, which would imply a Posey position switch (I can’t believe they would ever trade him). That doesn’t seem to leave a place for Belt, does it?

Ryan Backster : Freddy Peralta. Still meh on him?
Keith Law: Meh is strong. Doesn’t have a big ceiling. Pitching *very* well in AAA, two good home starts in unfriendly Colorado Springs, which I like to see, at least.

Steve: Odds Vladdy Jr is up this year?
Keith Law: I may have said this before, but strongly believe he will debut in Toronto this year. I’d put money on that.

Jesus Sanchez: Am I the top prospect in the Rays system at the end of the year and am I the top OF prospect in baseball as well?
Keith Law: Maybe, and no.

Robbie: Keith how do you reconcile wanting to be right coinciding with certain players failing? I don’t think you would ever necessarily want players to fail, but you are where you are because you are good at evaluating players and I’m sure you want to be right more than not.
Keith Law: I don’t root against players. I may joke about it a little but I can’t do that. Any prospect, no matter who it is, is a kid pursuing his dream. What kind of evil SOB would root against that?

Mike B: Have you seen anything in Corey Ray’s start that makes you think he’s turning a corner this year? I’ve heard he finally had a healthy offseason which may lead to better results.
Keith Law: He’s 2 for his last 30 and has a .301 OBP on the year. Yes, SSS, but he hasn’t turned a corner.

Mac: Have Madrigal and Kelenic moved up draft boards simply by not playing? How much recency bias occurs at the top of the draft?
Keith Law: I’ve joked about that – the best thing to do this spring has been to not play. Kelenic is playing now, though; his standing may be a function of last summer/fall, though, since the pitching he’s seeing this spring is not good.
Keith Law: Acuna is getting all the hits, BTW.

Carlton: What was your initial projection for Degrom? Looking through your old ranks and don’t see him anywhere.
Keith Law: He made my Mets top 10 one year before he debuted. At some point after that he went from a four-seamer to whatever he calls it now, with more life/sink than it ever had befoer.
Keith Law: I never saw him before his debut, which I saw on TV while in Bristol.

parlay: Hunter Harvey ceiling?
Keith Law: If healthy, #1 starter. Has not stayed healthy, and I don’t love the cross-body delivery.
Keith Law: That was foul? (referring to Dansby)

Jax : Not just basing this on his hot start but Grandal getting a Russell Martin type of contract next winter seems likely, yes? Or do you think he would get even more?
Keith Law: I think less, as he’s not the kind of defensive catcher teams seem to favor right now.

Joey: How different is Lewis Brinson now compared to Michael A taylor back when he broke into MLB?
Keith Law: Brinson’s got more whip in his swing and I think both more raw power and a better chance to hit for a decent average.

Joe : Any new names connected with the Braves in the draft? Could Vasil with their second pick be a possibility after his injury?
Keith Law: That’s a situation where them losing the money associated with pick 3 might hurt them. It’ll be hard to go over in the second round. I also think vasil, even hurt, could go before that.

Ryan: What is Cavan Biggio’s ceiling? Can he be a big league regular?
Keith Law: Doubtful.

Justin R: Are no-hitters any real measure of skill? Or largely fluky?
Keith Law: Fluky. Super fun, but not meaningful.

Josh: Tyler Austin and Mac Williamson are two bats that have caught my eye lately. Do you feel they are legit and will be mainstay contributors for the next several years?
Keith Law: Likely no for both.

Michael: Given Josh Hader’s dominance as a reliever, should the Brewers even consider giving him a chance to start in the future?
Keith Law: I think this is the right role for him. He might be OK as a starter but not dominant like he has been/will be in relief.

Ben: Keith, have you played Dead of Winter,
Keith Law: I have not.

Ron: Gleyber is long term 2nd baseman in majors?
Keith Law: He can play shortstop. But they have Honus Wagner over there right now so second base seems fine.

Jon: Given the increase in strikeout rates in current baseball, do you still enjoy baseball as much as earlier in your life?
Keith Law: I consume baseball so differently now that it’s not a fair comparison. I do not think the high-K/high-HR environment is as aesthetically pleasing a product, though. Stolen bases are fun, dammit.

Ben: I’m fascinated by the scouting miss on Aaron Judge even as he got to the upper levels of the minors. Do you think this has changed anything in the scouting world? And what present grades would you put on Judge now?
Keith Law: Whose miss? He was in my top 40 for 3 straight years, I think.

Dd: If/when the Orioles decide to cash out, should Bundy be made available? if yes, would he bring much in return considering health concerns?
Keith Law: They should try it, but I expect him to fetch maybe 50 cents on the dollar because of health concerns, esp around the shoulder.

Nick: Excited that you’re coming to Politics and Prose in DC. Are there any pet peeves to avoid when meeting you and making a book signing request ?
Keith Law: As long as you respect the time of others in line, no, not at all. I’m happy to chat, sign, take a picture, answer your questions, or take your restaurant advice.

Brett: I remember you talking about Taijuan Walker’s delivery and how you were not a fan of his change in delivery to more upright. Any chance that led to TJ?
Keith Law: It’s possible but there was a long lag in between. Tyler Skaggs did the same, but he blew out within a year.

Adam: Dansby just got screwed because of a bad call followed by lack of camera angles
Keith Law: I legit don’t understand how that could have been foul.

Ben: Not a question, but if you haven’t been to Vedge in Philadelphia you should try it at some point. It’s too expensive, but by far best vegan food I’ve ever had. Really amazing cookery.
Keith Law: I haven’t been but would love to try it at some point.

Bud Smith: Fluky? How dare you undermine my no-hitter! Nerd.
Keith Law: Jose Jimenez on line two for you, Mr. Smith.

GIO: Dustin Pedroia was another super small college infielder that some thought was too small for pro ball. How does Madrigal compare to him coming out of college? Similar skill sets?
Keith Law: That’s a bit of revisionism. Pedroia was a shortstop who couldn’t stay there, and who swung uphill to an extent that very few big leaguers then or now do. His size didn’t help him. He was also a 40 runner, and that didn’t help him. Hell, he was balding at 21, which probably didn’t help him. I never saw him as an amateur, but I know our scouts in Toronto were lukewarm, and we had him more in the fourth round than second (where Boston took him). Madrigal is tiny – he’s listed at 5’7″ and around my weight, which, well, look at me and tell me if I look like a big leaguer – but he’s not that unconventional.
Keith Law: OK, that seems like a great question to wrap this up. Thanks as always for reading & for your questions. I am tentatively planning a mock draft for Thursday, since we’re only about five weeks out, and will try to chat around that even if I’m traveling. Enjoy your weekends and Acuña Matata!

My updated ranking of the top 50 prospects for this year’s draft is now up for Insiders.

Keith Law: All kinds of mind distortion. Klawchat.

NV: Hello Keith, where in your current top 100 prospect list would you slot Bohm & Madrigal? Thanks!
Keith Law: I really don’t like ranking guys until they’ve played somewhere in pro ball; before then, I tend to be very conservative with rankings, because we have no performance data and pro scouts haven’t seen them. I don’t think either guy would be a top 50 prospect in the pros right now. Madrigal suffers from a terrible lack of comparably-sized players in the majors.

chito: Who would be the better player 5 years from now…albies or swanson?
Keith Law: Probably Swanson, as the sure shortstop. Both are good. I haven’t heard from Atlanta fans who were killing Swanson last fall lately.

Brady: I know it’s been only 4 starts, but Jose Berrios has been absolutely filthy so far. Is it likely he’s taken the next step and will be the #1 type starter the Twins have been looking for since Johan left?
Keith Law: His stuff doesn’t seem to be any different; he’s had an extraordinary rate of generating popups, which can be a skill (but maybe not to that extreme), and of keeping flyballs in the park, which is sometimes a skill but rarely. So I think there’s some regression coming here.

Tony: Hey Keith, I’m someone who wishes they read more but truthfully barely reads. Currently, I’m thinking through how to best build it as a part of my routine. How many days and for roughly how long would you suggest in read per week? Thanks
Keith Law: I read every day, at least an hour. That is probably too extreme for most people, but I greatly enjoy reading and it works for me like meditation (keeping me focused and present). Find material you like, and see how long you can read without feeling distracted or like you want to run screaming into the street.

Kruker: Hey Keith…always appreciate your thoughts on prospects. Have you seen Blake Rutherford hit this year in person? Stats read well so far – 7 2Bs and a decent SLG. But he had issues last season making consistent hard contact. Can you project him as an MLBer or think of an MLB comp for him?
Keith Law: It’s ten games.

Brian J: Big 2, or SSS? BOS/HOU: 27 – 9. NYY/CLE/WAS/CHC/LA: 41-42
Keith Law: SSS.

Kruker: Is Teoscar’s surge just a fling? Also, what do you think of the name Teoscar for a baby
Keith Law: It’s 20 PA. But Teoscar was on my preseason breakout candidates list, so I was already optimistic about him producing more this year.

fhqwgads: Can someone from the A’s please get a clip of Homestar Runner saying: “Matt Olson… or Matt Chapman?”
Keith Law: That works shockingly well. #cerebellum’d

Saul: I know it’s a sss, but Reggie Lawson seems to be pitching well @Lake Elsinore- lower walk totals. Still an under the radar prospect for SD?
Keith Law: Never under the radar – he was a potential first rounder after his junior year & summer, and I wrote about a month ago about how good he looked in spring training.

Sam: Of the three current NL division leaders (Mets, Pirates, D-Backs), which do you think is most likely to win their division?
Keith Law: If you give me odds on four choices – Mets, Pirates, Dbacks, or none – I would still bet on ‘none.’ But I would bet at least one of those four teams makes the playoffs.

Ben: It’s only 4 starts, but when someone like Gerrit Cole switches teams and immediately becomes better than he ever has been, do we assume the new team knows something the old team didn’t? In your experience, do teams target players that they believe other teams aren’t using properly and/or they can quickly make better. I.e. a mechanical change
Keith Law: I think that’s exactly what happened here. It seems like the Astros told him, you’re not a groundball pitcher, stop throwing two-seamers, just attack with four-seamers up and sliders down. His flyball rate has soared, but so have a bunch of positive indicators, even without a real change in stuff quality.

Jim: How close were the W-S Dash to making your most stacked minor league team list? It would have helped to have Burger and Robert on the opening day roster, but if Rutherford and Basabe bounce back, and Adolfo continues to improve they might have 3 OFs who play in the majors.
Keith Law: Not close at all.

Ricardo: What was Price doing wrong as Reds manager?
Keith Law: He’s definitely the reason the pitching staff had a 5+ ERA and the offense has a sub-.300 OBP. It’s totally him.

addoeh: If the Marlins are going to claim they are a British Virgin Islands company to avoid paying the city of Miami money they are owed, shouldn’t they also play a few games there?
Keith Law: I’m volunteering to cover that series.
Keith Law: Also, I love that Marlins Man flew there and found their “office” is just one of those stores where you rent a mailbox.

PJ: The Reds are focused on developing players, not winning games. What players have developed on Price’s watch? Obviously not all on the mgr, but Hamilton, Peraza, Stephenson, Lorenzen, DeScalfani… nada. Iglesias as SP didn’t get a chance. As a Reds fan, I’m 100% ok with the firing. I think you should be too.
Keith Law: Iglesias couldn’t start. Who among those players you listed should have been much better? Stephenson, yes, but he started to run into trouble in AAA, before Price ever touched him. Lorenzen was never going to be a starter. Hamilton has always had trouble making decent contact – but he has become an elite CF under Price. (I’m not giving Price credit there, but it happened.) DeSclafani gave them 300 above-average innings before he got hurt. Winker only has about 60 big league games, but he’s done well on the whole. Suarez came over and turned into a great player. I am not seeing this track record of failed development that you are. And, again, there is nothing true today about Price’s tenure that was not also true on November 1st, when the Reds could have gone out there and hired the best available manager on the market.

Dante: Anthony Rizzo thinks there are too many games in the MLB season. There is no way the league lowers the number of games any time soon, right?
Keith Law: Games are money. If the union fights for a shorter schedule, MLB will insist on steering less money to players. That is not a tradeoff the union should make right now.

Dave: I know that you hold no illusions about the reality of climate change. I was just curious if you have looked into solar panels at your place of residence or an electric car and why/why not you have gone that route. Just interested in your perspective. Thanks.
Keith Law: I have driven a hybrid for years now. I have looked at solar panels, but the up front cash outlay has deterred me – among other things, I have a daughter who’s a few years from college.

Sally fan: The Delmarva Shorebirds have an incredibly strong rotation. But for the higher round college arms (and Bishop) what’s to be gained by keeping them at lo A? Shouldn’t a high round college arm be expected to start at Hi A?
Keith Law: Bishop didn’t pitch at all last spring in college, which is part of why he’s an Oriole today. Lowther could probably have started with Frederick, but the Keys have a couple of guys in their rotation now who are on that starter/reliever bubble and I assume the O’s were giving them that last shot before replacing them. I’d be surprised if the Shorebirds still have this rotation on June 1st.

PJ: Shane Bieber… 20 IP, 0 ER, 0 BB, 23 K’s. Are the scouting reports as strong as the results? If nothing else, I have to think he’s ready for AAA. Right?
Keith Law: Ready for AAA, yes. It’s not great stuff, it’s a lot of average, with ++ control.

Bored Lawyer, Esq. : At what point does a slow/bad start get concerning? If Lutz and Jhailyn Ortiz (for example) are still struggling to make contact in 25 games, is concern valid? 50 games?
Keith Law: Both play at 19 this year; Ortiz won’t turn 20 until November. So I’d say no number of games will concern me with those two. And it is fucking FREEZING in the northeast and upper midwest.

Andrew: Buddy Reed is in fuego. Which of these three prospects ends up contributing the most for the Padres? Buddy Reed, Franchy Cordero, or Michael Gettys?
Keith Law: Buddy Reed is a 23-year-old in high-A in a great hitters’ environment. Cordero is the only one of those three I’d call a prospect.

Frank: What’s STL going to do with all the outfield surplus? Feels like Bader and Oneil deserve an everyday job somewhere. What do you think?
Keith Law: There has to be a trade at some point. They’re going to have a need – rotation, I’d guess – and they have the parts to go get pretty much anyone.

Nate (in Seattle): Klaw, thanks for the mlb draft primer. Wondering what you take on Corey Ray’s start. Is it SSS or living up to previous promise?
Keith Law: I know he’s gone back to a small stride/tap to get his weight transferred again, so that’s a big positive; I thought that was the #1 difference from college when I saw him last year. Curiosity in his stats: In the first four games of the season, all vs montgomery, he punched out 10 times and went 4 for 18. Since then in ten games, he’s punched out just 5 times, and is hitting .410/.425/.667.

Rob: Kohl Stewart has put up K numbers in his first two starts that he hasn’t shown in pro ball yet. Being left available for the Rule 5 and being passed over by everyone light a fire, or some sort of adjustment?
Keith Law: Or he faced an atrocious Birmingham lineup and struck out 9 guys in 5 innings because they’re terrible.
Keith Law: I mean, here’s . Courtney Hawkins and Keon Barnum each had the golden sombrero.

Dante: I’ve heard Nick Madrigal is being considered by the Phillies. Does he remind you at all of Scott Kingery based on his tools? Any word on his makeup?
Keith Law: Madrigal is in the mix for a bunch of teams up top – I don’t think he’d get past the A’s – and the Phillies are sort of on everyone except Swaggerty (can’t do yet another CF, right?). Kingery is substantially stronger than Madrigal.

Chris: Would cutting Reyes and bringing up Cecchini or Guillorme be worse for their individual development? Or is there not much left to prove for those guys?
Keith Law: Cutting Reyes makes the team better AND opens a spot for someone younger. Guillorme would also give them an elite defender at short for when Rosario doesn’t play.

Kevin: Thanks for the rankings, Keith. Curious if you heard what the White Sox are thinking at 4? Best player, arm, bat? What would you do if you were in their position with the stable of young arms and outfielders they already have in the minors?
Keith Law: Other than a few random connections – A’s with Bart, Reds with Singer, Mariners with Xavier Edwards – there isn’t much out there because no one really knows what teams up top, including Detroit, are doing, and because players/advisers mostly haven’t put bonus expectations out there. I don’t believe the White Sox would take a prep arm at 4, though. My answer for what I would do for every team is best player available, always and forever, amen.

Bucs666: Mr. Law, how signable is Kumar Rocker. I know that he is committed to Vanderbilt, but I was hoping that the Pirates would have a shot at him. Thank you.
Keith Law: I believe he is signable where he’s going to be drafted.

Craig: Scouting question. Brent Suter has shown that he is at least a mediocre MLB pitcher and possibly more. He doesn’t throw hard and none of his pitches are amazing, he just mixes and matches pretty effectively. He was a college senior draftee and I am pretty sure that guys like him are a dime/dozen and most top out around AA. When scouting a guy like him in college, is there anything you can look for to see a future major leaguer or is it just pretty much luck?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s all luck, but he’s a lefty throwing in the mid 80s with some deception and good control. Those guys are a dime a dozen, because they tend not to pitch very well in the majors (and I don’t think Suter is anything more than an up-and-down guy).

Jed: Has the quality of this year’s draft diminished in your mind after seeing most of the top guys fail to meet what was expected of them coming into the spring?
Keith Law: I think it is as deep as I thought in February, but the top ten is worse than I thought it would be.

Andy: I watched the Red Sox- Yankees fight. The commisioner should know that fighting on the field is a HUGE delay. If you want to speed up the game, suspend anyone who charges the mound 25 games. Managers who argue calls after replay? 10 game suspension. Those are pace of play things that I can get behind.
Keith Law: And the guys running in from the bullpen like the Kool-Aid guy? Come on. I agree – baseball fights are stupid, and when one happens at a game where I’m in the stands, that’s generally when I pull a book out of my bag, because I’ll probably get a chapter or so in before they’re done.

Garrett: Keith you mentioned in a write up at the end of Spring Training that Austin Riley might have a grade higher of power than you previously thought. Have you seen/heard anything else to change your opinion on his other tools? I know you have had questions about his bat speed in the past
Keith Law: Still do. I doubt the .500 BABIP is going to last. He has really done a great job with his body, though – if he’d looked like this in high school, he probably would have slipped into the first round as a two-way guy who showed more athleticism. (Not relevant now, but I wonder if he would have been a better prospect on the mound too with this physique.) He deserves a lot of credit for transforming his body like he has.

Joe: Keith, I saw the Tampa Yankees in Fort Myers last week. Two guys caught my eye, Jonathan Loaisiga and Isiah Gilliam. You have written about Loaisia before, but what kind of prospect is Gilliam?
Keith Law: Tools guy who never hit, not really even in HS. 36% K rate so far this year.

Joe: Keith, could Nick Decker out of New Jersey be a day one pick?
Keith Law: I expect that he will.

Marc: Is Kopech ready for the show or do they need to give him a couple more months to refine command?
Keith Law: I may have answered this two weeks ago – I think his stuff is ready, and he’ll miss a lot of bats, but walk more guys than you’d like, and that’s part of his development.

Kevin: How far from the big leagues is Casey Mize?
Keith Law: If healthy, and we assume he doesn’t pitch at all this summer, I’d say by the All-Star Break next year.

Scott: Mac Williamson changed his swing with the help of Justin Turner’s swing coach. He hit well in spring training and is on fire in AAA so far. Do you think he can be a solid regular in the majors?
Keith Law: I think a fringe regular – bat speed has never been very good, always a power over hit type, with some athleticism and the ability to play that difficult RF in San Francisco.

Lilith: Are teams drafting in the top 5 going to be more cautious about drafting Madrigal because of his injury?
Keith Law: Doesn’t sound like it. He may be moving up relative to other college bats because so many of them are underperforming while he’s out.

Matt: How excited should Phillies fans be about the foursome of Sixto/JoJo/Ranger/Adonis? Because the names alone are enough to make me dizzy.
Keith Law: I saw a bad Ranger start, although it was 40 degrees at first pitch. I’m hoping to see him again on Saturday vs New Hampshire. Anyway, yeah, that’s a good group. Kilome belongs in the same discussion.

Jacob: What kind of tools does Jarred Kelenic possess? I am trying to understand what kind of upside he could have and having difficulty.
Keith Law: So is everyone else, since he’s played something like two games outdoors so far. I don’t believe he has any 70 tools, but it’s a lot of above average – hit, field, throw, run – and the potential for above-average power.

Marc: Given the current prospect mix for the White Sox, what area would you target at #4?
Keith Law: Best. Player. Available.
Keith Law: You don’t draft based on what you have, unless you really, really want to be unemployed. You take the best guy out there and figure out the fit later.

Tommy: How long until we see Juan Soto somewhere other than Hagerstown? This guy rakes.
Keith Law: He only played about a month there last year. I’m assuming he’ll be out of there by their All-Star Break.

Aaron’s Greenies: Griffin Canning aggressively moved to AA which was expected, but a bit surprising to see Jose Suarez (at 20) moved to AA as well – anything more than a 4/5 for Suarez?
Keith Law: I think Suarez might be more like a mid-rotation guy.

Rick C: Do you think it’s reasonable for the Braves to hold Acuna down until he’s hitting a little better?
Keith Law: I do. He’s been swinging out of his ass lately.

NB: Were you involved with the ESPN 1-100 player rankings? Always a tough thing to nail, obviously, and perhaps it’s recency bias considering his torrid start, but Mookie Betts at 17 seems… low.
Keith Law: I was not.

Mike: If you had to guess, do you think Jordyn Adams will sign or will he end up at Carolina?
Keith Law: Carolina. My understanding from scouts is that he is committed to football. And there is no way I’m paying him seven figures to go get his brains scrambled every fall and spring.

JR: Vegas resident. Any local draft prospects worth checking out for this years draft?
Keith Law: Isbel at UNLV.

Kevin: Buy or sell: MLB isn’t serious about fixing length of game issues until they force hitters to keep one foot in the box between pitches.
Keith Law: Soft buy. That’s an issue, but not the main one (commercial breaks).

Wahoo: Keith, I have great respect for your opinions, even if I might not agree with every one (I am in outspoken agreement on the importance of vaccines!). I had a respectful chat-disagreement with Kiley M. a week ago as he made it clear thinks programs like UVA and Fullerton do their kids a disservice by the way they play/coach — suggesting that he isn’t sure why truly good prospects would even go to those programs. He also made reference to UVA pitching, something I know you have commented on as well. I am a big UVA guy, but I would like to think I can look at things objectively. I know there have been injuries and “questions” about mechanics. Fair share of small ball as well. However, is there truly evidence that warrants this kind of criticism? UVA has not only built a respectful program – they have sent their share of players to the MLB including high draft picks. Certainly some pitcher injuries, but where is this not happening?
Keith Law: The track record of their pitchers in pro ball is awful, and it’s because they force every pitcher to pitch with ‘their’ mechanics. For all their success and high picks, the most WAR any UVA pitcher draftee has accumulated in the majors is 8.1 … by Javier Lopez. Teams have spent a lot of money and high picks on UVA pitchers for naught, and we are way past calling it a coincidence or saying this happens at all programs (hint: it doesn’t).

Sriram: Here’s what I don’t get. The Reds are rebuilding. So you know they will lose a lot. It doesn’t make sense to grade Price on that. So then Price has non-winning metrics (player development progress, whatever). How do you get any read on THAT from 16 games?
Keith Law: You don’t. They didn’t. This was a “DO SOMETHING!!!!?!?!?!!” move.

Roger: Is Taylor Clarke close enough that Arizona should bring him up in place of Walker? Can Braden Shipley still be a viable starter?
Keith Law: I am not sure in which piece this was – impact prospects? – but I think I said Clarke was ready and would probably end up with 20 starts or so this year. Walker’s injury might be the opening. I don’t see how you can start Shipley unless he’s regained his lost velocity.

Andrew: I read a story about the A’s maybe moving to Portland. The story also said expansion could bring a team to Portland. Is expansion a good idea considering how many teams feel the need to tank in a desperate attempt to acquire talent? Or is the size of the league not a problem related to tanking?
Keith Law: I don’t think tanking is about # of teams, but about the current CBA. I do worry about getting enough pitchers to fill two more rosters since everyone insists on carrying umpteen relievers.

Brett: I thought for sure you were going to be Michael Cohen’s third client. Was sure of it.
Keith Law: I pulled his ear close to my lips and whispered, “Privilege.” So I’m good.

Joe : Any players being connected to the Braves yet in the draft?
Keith Law: I heard them with Vasil. Again, this is all very early, speculative stuff, and something random could happen and suddenly Carter Stewart is staring at them at pick 8 and they change their plan.

Draft guru: Top high school players who have a shot to be top 40 picks out of the North East for ’18 draft?
Keith Law: I just put up that draft top 50 today.

Gabriel: Is it too early for a mock draft?
Keith Law: Yes. It would be farcical.

Joe : Have you heard of the Braves hiring any international scouts after the basically fired their whole department this winter?
Keith Law: No, they can’t really sign anyone signifcant anyway, and Anthopoulos came in so late that restocking the department would have been difficult. I expect that will all happen later this summer.

JSC: Do you have any recommendations for sci-fi or high fantasy fiction series you have read?
Keith Law: The Magicians, by Lev Grossman. The NK Jemisin Broken Earth series is good, although I haven’t cracked The Stone Sky yet.

Jesse: Any rumors on who the mets might be on in the draft?
Keith Law: Today I would bet college bat.

Adam: Is there a chance that maybe, just maybe, the Padres are rushing Tatis Jr? His very slow start at AA seems to indicate that.
Keith Law: Or it’s April 19th.

Jacob: Joey Bart seems to be raking in terms of avg and power. Does his hit tool make the 50-55 grade and could his ability to call games combined with his tools mean he could be a fast riser through the minors?
Keith Law: I don’t think he has an average hit tool. He’s the best catching prospect in the class by a mile, though, so he’s going to go off the board pretty early, and I would guess he’s a two years to the majors guy.

Skip Donahue: Which of the pitchers down at Delmarva is most likely to help Baltimore the soonest – Baumann, Lowther, Dietz, Hall, Bishop, Hanifee?
Keith Law: Baumann might be the closest, but none of those guys is close.

Eric: Have you heard much about Jeren Kendall this year? Does he have an improved swing?
Keith Law: I’ve heard nothing good about him this year, and he’s struck out in 43% of his PA, so there you go.

Ryan: Which of the big Vanderbilt commits do you think have a decent (>30 percent) chance of coming to campus?
Keith Law: Austin Becker seems most likely. I don’t know what Hankins’ actual injury is at this point, but I could see him choosing Vandy over taking a fraction of the bonus he might have expected with a healthy spring.

Sriram: Obviously the Red Sox aren’t going to keep this pace up or this level of run prevention going. But it’s not unreasonable to think this version of Betts and Devers can’t hold up to some degree, no?
Keith Law: I agree. Also seemed like Bogaerts was making hard contact again now that his hand is healed.

Alex: just a heads up – Bottega Americano in your San Diego eating guide closed
Keith Law: That’s a shame. Looks like it just closed two months ago.

Ed: To an untrained amateur (me), Brendon Little appears to have similar tools to Jose Quintana. Where am I wrong, and how wrong am I? Thanks Keith!
Keith Law: I don’t see that at all.

Slick Rick Hahn: Thanks for the memories Courtney Hawkins. With his official release, what do you think of the Sox basically doing a 180 on draft strategy since drafting him, targeting colllege performers with good bat to ball and plate discipline? I know people liked Hawkins at the time, are they limiting themselves too much by avoiding toolsy high schoolers?
Keith Law: He is the best example I can think of in the last decade of a team screwing up a player’s development with a too-aggressive promotion. He was a raw HS hitter whom they sent to high-A in his first full pro year, at age 19. The disaster never ended.

Jacob: What is the issues going on with Nander De Sedas? Is he looking like a 2nd or 3rd rounder now?
Keith Law: Hasn’t hit. Second round perhaps on name value.

Todd: Brad Hand to the Indians for Shane Bieber, Nolan Jones and Wil Benson. Who says no?
Keith Law: Padres fan, eh?

Matty: What do you think a good season would look like for Braxton Garrett?
Keith Law: Get him healthy with his old velocity back. Don’t worry about results until next year.

JSC: Favorite Caribbean Island to vacation to?
Keith Law: My sample size is small, but Aruba couldn’t have been any nicer or easier.

Jacob: Jose Suarez looked fairly decent in his AA debut at age 20. Does his uptick in velo give him the tools to be a top 100 guy this year?
Keith Law: Uptick? Don’t think that’s the case. I saw him in March and was bullish on him thanks to the deception & plus changeup.

Matt: Which is closer to reality — Cora has changed team culture pushing all the right buttons OR Farrell was a drag on the clubhouse morale to the detriment of team performance(though they did win 93 games).
Keith Law: Or it’s 17 games and they’re largely healthy.

Paul: I believe you said you saw Brandon Nimmo as a 4th outfielder. Is his strong start (and strong finish last year) enough of a sample to indicate there might be something more there?
Keith Law: He has 27 PA this year, all but one against RHP. If he can’t hit lefties, which has been true in the past, he’s not a regular.

Brian: When was the last time we saw a rotation as good as the Astros this season?
Keith Law: The Nats have rolled Scherzer/Strasburg out there for several years, with assorted pretty good pitchers behind them.

Jeff: Does Heimlich get drafted this year? Seems like he’s not pitching as well now which may give teams an easy out.
Keith Law: I asked around about him, if scouts/execs thought someone would do it, and most people said “yes.” (not that THEY would take him, but that some team would.) I still think no – no one will want that PR backlash.

Nick: When will you be doing your first mock draft?
Keith Law: 3-4 weeks before the draft itself.

Gregg: Heyman floated the idea of a Conforto for Realmuto trade today. Does that make any sense? If not, what’s a realistic Realmuto-Mets trade look like? Thanks!
Keith Law: That would not make sense for the Mets.

Drew: I am curious as to why Hoskins didn’t really appear on any top 100 lists during his time in the minors. What did scouts miss with him?
Keith Law: First baseman who was held back in low-A his first year, and played in a very favorable HR park in AA. I liked him, thought he could be Goldschmidt Lite.

TK: Just want to say thanks for your weekly “Stick to Baseball” links. They’re always informative, and even clued me in to the Fireball Island Kickstarter. I played that with my brothers all the time as a kid and recently backed them. I can’t wait to play the new version with them.
Keith Law: I don’t remember that game at all, but I did play Stop Thief, one of Restoration Games’ earlier re-Issues, all the time.

Zac: Is the service time manipulation unfixable or will the owners use this as the ultimate bargaining chip to screw over the MLBPA is the next labor bargaining?
Keith Law: Whatever rules the CBA sets, teams will quickly find the best way to take advantage of them.

Gilbert: Greyson Jenista did not make you updated top 50. What do you see that is keeping him from making that list?
Keith Law: He’s not very good.

David: Does Peter Alonso overtake Dom Smith as the Mets future at 1B ? Or are they both trade bait for a catcher?
Keith Law: If I’m Smith, I’m showing up early every damn day, because Alonso is legit. He can really hit and he’s showing more power than he did as an underclassman.

Jason: Thanks for the chat. I’ve seen Kelenic mentioned as a possibility for the Tigers first overall. How bad would Mize’s medical have to be for the Tigers to turn in another direction?
Keith Law: A cold weather HS bat first overall, a kid who’ll play just a handful of games outside all spring … I can’t say it’s wrong, because maybe Kelenic is the next coming of Mike Trout, but whoa boy is that a risk I could not stomach.

JP: take on the Pitching Ninja .gif controversy? MLB has been overly protective of their media rights forever, but in their defense they built up a huge media business by being that way.
Keith Law: Would love to see them work more with people like Rob on GIFs, which I don’t think negatively impact the market for MLB’s product *or* damage the MLB brand in any way at all, while continuing to enforce their rights on longer videos of game action, which do.

Justin R: How do you find new, good books to read? Best seller lists tend to be a lot of airplane-read potboilers.
Keith Law: Lot of reader & friend recommendations, bookstore browsing, often asking (indie) bookstore employees what they’ve liked. Sometimes I just pick up a book because the cover speaks to me and the description sounds interesting.

Dave: Dont know if you caught the articke about Armor Field in Chicago, but when will MLB teams realize smaller stadiums may be the way to go?
Keith Law: That was in my Saturday links post. Great work by Dayn there. Smaller parks don’t bring in more revenue.

Archie: Is your ranking of Madrigal a reflection of his potential to be a solid big leaguer, or because so many of the other top guys have gone backward?
Keith Law: More the latter. He’s still a tiny college 2b who’ll probably never have power.

Chris: Did you like Soundgarden at all?
Keith Law: Loved them.

Daniel: Is Acu?a ready ? Was he ready in Spring Training ?
Keith Law: He was ready, but like I said above, he’s trying to hit everything 500 feet right now.

Jeff: Likelihood that Lucchesi has a better MLB career than Quantrill?
Keith Law: Not crazy. Might be 40%.

Peter: Worried at all about Marcus Stroman? I know SSS, but concern is always there for me with a guy with that small of a frame.
Keith Law: He’s short but he ain’t small.

Peter: Is Zack Godley for real?
Keith Law: That CB is a knockout. As long as he has that, he’s for real.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thanks for all of the questions, as always, and for reading. I’ll have a draft post up in the next few days on Cole Wilcox (who was excellent on Tuesday night) and Carter Stewart (whose stuff was down last night, although the CB is still ridiculous) and a few more day one names. Enjoy your weekends!