My Prospect of the Year column is up for Insiders/ESPN+ subscribers, while my review of the board game Disney’s Villainous is up over at Paste.

Keith Law: I’ve got no time for private consultations. Klawchat.

PhillyJake: Vlad Guerrero, Jr. as your minor league player of the year? Why, he didn’t even warrant a September call up! <>
Keith Law: Exactly. Meanwhile the Blue Jays’ VP is subtweeting me and making up alternative facts about other sites’ rankings to distract everyone from the manipulation of Vlad’s service time. Baseball fever, baby!

Pete Alonso: Obviously I wasn’t going to unseat Vlad, but no mention of me at all in your writeup? First the Wilpons give me the shaft, now you! Explain yourself.
Keith Law: A .355 OBP and not low strikeout rate in an extreme hitters’ park doesn’t get you on the list.

Rowland’s Office: Wouldn’t the Braves be better off deploying Touki as a multi-inning weapon out of the ‘pen than as a 6th starter, his current role? Going forward, does he profile better as starter or reliever? Same Q on Bryse Wilson. Really hoping they dont opt to spend big on Kimbrel instead.
Keith Law: Both absolutely profile as starters. Three-pitch guys with command and good deliveries.

Dan: You have an NL ROY ballet. Soto or Acuna. Go.
Keith Law: I don’t have an NL ROY ballot (or ballet), and won’t give an answer to that until we’re right near the end of the season.

Dave: Are you ok with Lewis and Kirilloff missing the AFL?
Keith Law: They didn’t miss it – they weren’t chosen, probably because both played full seasons already.

Nick L: Crack Shack was…..just ok. Am I crazy?
Keith Law: I’ve never had a meal there (at the original) that was less than outstanding.

Jay: Upside for Anderson Tejeda?
Keith Law: He could be a star if everything clicks – certainly has the tools for it, but isn’t close to that yet.

addoeh: Great job yesterday with Skating Away On The Thin Ice of a New Day! Do you take requests? Maybe Pink Floyd’s Wish You Were Here?
Keith Law: Thanks! I don’t know if I’ll play again on Periscope but if I do I’ll keep that in mind (certainly one of the first songs I learned on guitar back in the late 80s).

Nick L: Willson Contreras is not slugging at all. Think this is a permanent issue?
Keith Law: I do not.

Bill G: Hi Keith. Thanks for answering my question a couple weeks ago regarding divisional structure when MLB expands to 32 teams. A follow up question – would you prefer radical geographical alignment or a more traditional approach, maintaining historical AL/NL structures? Thanks!
Keith Law: No interest in geographical realignment. This isn’t the NBA.

Eric: What did you think of J.P. Martinez’s campaign with Spokane?
Keith Law: For a 22-year-old, it was not impressive at all. You have to hope this is just rust from not playing for a little while after he defected.

Barbeach: Hope you had a great summer. Are either Bird or Voit the long term answer at 1B for the Yankees? Or should their off season plans include finding the answer?
Keith Law: Neither is the answer there.

Aaron C.: We know Oreos are your “guilty pleasure” food, but in your younger, pre-SABR days, who was your guilty pleasure as a ballplayer? Mine will always be Deion Sanders – a mediocre player who was a joy to watch (for me).
Keith Law: I loved guys who could run. Didn’t matter if they were good. Gary Pettis. Hell, Gary Redus. And the guys who could run and were good, like Rickey, Raines, or healthy Eric Davis – those were my favorites.

Aaron C.: Am I mistaken or is this traditionally the time of year when you write your annual “who I got wrong” column? Not trolling at all, but it one of my faves. (I swear I’m not trolling.)
Keith Law: I think that’s on the calendar for next Thursday.

Mark: At what point does Sandy Leon’s total black hole in the Red Sox lineup, outweigh the love he gets from the pitching staff ?
Keith Law: I feel like he’s a modern example of Nichols’ Law of Catcher Defense: If a catcher can’t hit, people will just assume his defense is tremendous.

Odubel: Can Kopech still be a #1/#2? I thought he looked really great up here, his fastball had a great spin rate. What a shame.
Keith Law: If he comes back 100%, sure.

Jeff: Hi Keith – I saw that you recognized Mike King as a runner up for your prospect of the year but note that he is “probably not a starter in the long run.” He just turned 23, and has made significant improvements in the last year. What would you need to see from him next year to suggest that he could be a 4 or 5 starter?
Keith Law: Given the delivery, I don’t see it at all. His age and those ‘improvements’ (I’m not sure what those would be) are not factors.

Bmosc: Our President is a pathological liar, a narcissist, and more than likely a sociopath. How are so many people ok with that?!
Keith Law: Because he’ll lower their taxes and pack the courts with theocrats.

Jeff: Should the Yankees sign Manny Machado or stick with Didi at SS and Andujar at 3B?
Keith Law: Machado is clearly an upgrade. The question I would have is whether he’s a $30 million upgrade, and I don’t think that he clearly is.

Bob : Do you believe Neidert will be one of the starting pitchers for Miami in 2019?
Keith Law: Yes. Also, so will you.

Wally: Resending: if you are Nats GM and this offseason you can either (1) re-sign Harper or (2) extend Rendon, sign Grandal and sign morton, which would you do?
Keith Law: The latter is the better use of their funds, since they have Robles to fill the vacant OF spot (although I’m not a big Grandal fan).

Jo-Nathan: Should Cleveland think about selling high on Triston McKenzie? He had forearm soreness to start the year then pitched 90 innings and was shut down due to fatigue. If he can’t gain weight (listed at 165 lbs at 6’5) I cant see how he can ever hold up over a full season in the majors.
Keith Law: I don’t know that his weight is necessarily the issue – and isn’t this is first bout of any arm trouble? I could be wrong on the latter but I don’t remember him getting hurt before.

Hank: In light of Alex Bregman’s breakout and his taking the job of Astros’ key offensive piece, do you see this season as an outlier or predictive of his future value? Long term is he a better bet than Correa?
Keith Law: I think he’s entirely for real – although his power spike, like so many, is probably more a function of the baseball than swing changes or strength.

Darin: Why do you disagree with my scouting of minor league stats for my favorite prospect?
Keith Law: Because I hate your favorite team.

Garrett: Did you think Trevor Story would be this good? Also is this his career year or can we expect this from him going forward?
Keith Law: I think this is a career year, and I don’t think he’s close to the same player if he’s not a Rockie. His career K% is *down* to 30.5%, and that’s without facing better breaking stuff or even more movement on fastballs while he’s home.

SeanE: If you are the Pirates what do you do at 2b and SS next year. Can’t see Mercer or Harrison coming back. Do you go with the Seinfeld boys Kramer and Newman. Do you give Frazier a shot at 2b?
Keith Law: I’d go with the Seinfeld tandem.

Doc: Keith, any thoughts on the shake-up in Phils’ minor league department? Jordan out, several hitting coaches fired.
Keith Law: Jordan left – he wasn’t fired.

Nick: When can we expect your early 2019 draft rankings? Who are looking like the top talents?
Keith Law: Probably not until the spring because the summer stuff was so unimpressive, especially on the college side.

Andrew: Is this PR death total comment the worst of all bad DJT comments? Sheesh.
Keith Law: “Very fine people” will be impossible to top, but yes, it’s terrible, and already there are toadies lapping it up on social media.

Jay: He won’t win it, but should Brad Keller be getting some consideration for RoY?
Keith Law: No.

Jordan: Do you see Justin Dunn as a guy who can be a 2-3 starter at the big league level?
Keith Law: I do.

Sandy Kazmir: What broad sweeping changes will we see enacted if the Rays win 90+ games and fail to make the postseason? Same question, but switch Rays to Yankees?
Keith Law: None … and none. GMAFB.

thatssotaguchi: Do you enjoy My Fair Lady or are you Satan?
Keith Law: I love old school musicals, and I’ll watch anything with Audrey Hepburn in it.

Ghost of Guy Fieri: Looking for a good knife sharpener that won’t break the bank, any suggestions?
Keith Law: I recommended one in my gift guide for cooks last November.

17 year old, Wander Franco: How soon until I’m the number one prospect in baseball?
Keith Law: You might be a few graduations away from that.

Gus Johnson: Does JP Crawford need to get away from the Phillies to fulfill his potential?
Keith Law: That is possible, although I couldn’t say for sure.

Craig: Is Mark Shapiro the first executive to (essentially) publicly call you “fake news”?
Keith Law: No, but it never ceases to amaze me when executives do that. I don’t think it works out well for them in the end.

Robbie: Is David Fletcher of the angels a starting 2B? Seems more like a bench guy with the lack of power.
Keith Law: Bench guy due to (wait for it) the lack of power.

SeanE: Are you sold on Musgrove as a starting pitcher? Has had a pretty solid year. What is his ceiling?
Keith Law: Fifth starter, sure. More, I wouldn’t expect.

Marty: Are we allowed to talk to you at the AFL?
Keith Law: Is … is there something I don’t know about? Like a force field around me or something? Yes, of course you can. I’ll nearly always be at each game a little early anyway, which is the best time to catch me.

Chris: Dodgers still win the West?
Keith Law: With the Rockies up 2 and only ~15 games left, you would have to bet on them over any other single team.

Adam: You mentioned Paddack has nothing more to gain from the minors in your newest post. What ceiling do you think he has? #2 starter? Ace if he develops his curve?
Keith Law: #2 starter, but I don’t think he’s developing that curve. That’s very rarely a pitch that gets better with development.

leprekhan: With the extra pick from not signing Carter Stewart, the Braves are at least in a position to make some noise in the 2019 draft. Overall, how deep does the 2019 draft class look and do you think the Braves could get a comparable talent with their compensation pick?
Keith Law: Worse, and no. I had Stewart #2 in the class. This class is worse and the odds are they won’t get the #2 talent picking 9th.

TC: Rosario’s raised his slash line from .230/.274/.346 to .253/.294/.386 since your snark comment to me on Aug. 9. Looks like he’s on the upswing! Thanks for still believing in him!
Keith Law: Players don’t develop on our timetables. Sometimes patience is rewarded. Sometimes patience just ends up looking like obstinacy.

Jd: Love your work. How’s the migraine today? Should the Sox have called up feltman? Will their bullpen and their inability to throw strikes haunt them in the playoffs?
Keith Law: Better today, thank you. Three hour nap yesterday + two Aleve + extra caffeine did it. I think you draft a guy like Feltman high because you intend to call him up, even if it’s just to start in mop-up work.

Michael: Is Daz Cameron a future everyday OF?
Keith Law: For sure.

Danny: Piggybacking on your article, are Deivi or King realistic rotation candidates next year or is the answer these guys are not really starters but they could be reliever options next year?
Keith Law: Deivi is a starter but has one career AA start. Next year is probably optimistic. King is very unlikely to be a starter.

Steve: Keith great chats. Numerous anonymous scouts have comped Jared Kelenic to a young Mike Trout. Your thoughts?
Keith Law: I love Kelenic but at his age Trout was in AA and about 280 days from his major league debut.

Dan: Dylan Cease no mention today, is his fastball overpowering and still lacking secondaries. I’m happy he made it all year.
Keith Law: Today’s column was the best performing prospects, not the best prospects. Two different things.

Shiraz: Hey Keith, would you hold Blake Snell’s innings against him if you were voting for Cy Young? Is 180 IP the new 200?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t vote for Snell over Sale, certainly. The lower IP total matters in that it’s less production – the more you pitch, as long as you’re above replacement-level, the more value you deliver to your team. Snell doesn’t top Sale in either variation of WAR, and I think it’s fair to assume at least some of his low BABIP is good defense/luck.

Doc: Who will get a larger free agent contract, Harper or Machado?
Keith Law: Machado is my guess.

William: Who do you believe is the leader in the NL MVP race?
Keith Law: A pitcher. Nobody wants to hear that, though.

Louis: What’s wrong, if anything, with Adam Duvall?
Keith Law: He was never really good.

Jesse: Will you be able to any book events at changing hands during AFL?
Keith Law: I didn’t ask because the book will be a year and a half old at that point, but if you have a copy at a game I will gladly sign it for you.

Joe: You’re in charge of the Giants. What’s your offseason look like?
Keith Law: That depends on ownership, but I think this is a rebuild situation, and that includes exploring the market for Bumgarner.

Guest: Have you played or seen the board game
Sol: Last Days of a Star? I played it for the first time last night and I’m intrigued by the mechanics, theme, and what seems like high replayability.
Keith Law: I have not. It appears to be out of print at the moment.

Preston : Cubs have right to be upset about 30 days in a row of scheduled games, right? That said, Brewers are better, healthier team.
Keith Law: Cubs have that right, yes. I do not agree the Brewers are a better team.

Will B.: A lot of talk this summer about Jered Kelenic’s successful first pro season. However did you get a chance to see fellow classmate Alek Thomas start as well? Looking like in 10years he might be the best OF from that class…
Keith Law: I was very high on Thomas out of the draft, and said the Dbacks got a first-round talent, but I think you’re reading way too much into short-season stats with that statement.

Matt: Your colleague Michael Wilbon said it would be “Garbage” if Jacob DeGrom won the Cy Young. I think he should be MVP. What do you think?
Keith Law: I think you’re much more on the ball than my colleague, who apparently hasn’t read Smart Baseball.

Rod: Any chance that MacKenzie Gore debuts next season?
Keith Law: I can’t see a scenario where that happens.

John: Do you have a solution for service time manipulation? I see why teams do it what is the best way to fix it.
Keith Law: I’ve suggested a one-year right of first refusal option for players who reach free agency with 6.000 (six years, zero days) of service, to try to encourage teams to call up the Vlad Jr’s and the Bryants for Opening Day, at least. I have seen suggestions of age-based free agency as well, although I think that would primarily help college draftees, not the 19-year-old wunderkinds like Vlad Jr is now or Wander Franco will be in two years.

Bob: Keith – you mention guys that could run – Willie McGee. I am not sure I saw anybody faster on a triple the part from 1st to 3rd. As for the Padres – is Mejia’s bat good for a catcher or all positions – meaning he can find a new spot if Hedges sticks at C and his bat still has value say in OF?
Keith Law: Hedges is just not a good enough hitter to push Mejia off to another position.

Jason : With talk of his possible retirement, is Joe Mayer a HOF player? Is he if he stayed at catcher?
Keith Law: If he retires now, he’s going to be a borderline case who struggles on the ballot because his traditional numbers don’t add up and because he doesn’t ‘feel’ like a HoFer, while folks like me or Jay Jaffe may end up banging the drum for him when he pulls in 21% of the vote in year one.

Jeremy: Following up on Nick L’s question. It’s looking likely that only 1 Cub is going finish the year with 30HRs. Less than you would have predicted right? What do you think is causing the power outage?
Keith Law: Less than I would have predicted, not sure it’s anything other than randomness.

Sam: As an A’s fan, I desperately want to expect Ramon Laureano to keep being this good. I think you pegged him as more of a 4th outfielder when he was traded. Is that still your read?
Keith Law: I really liked him out of AFL 2016, then the Astros changed his swing and he stunk. Fourth OF was a bit of a solomonic answer – I thought he had good tools, but when a guy doesn’t hit for a full year in the high minors, it’s hard to talk about him as a regular. I’d still say fourth OF, but at least now we can have a discussion of whether he’s more, given his tools and now some performance.

Jay: Been playing Small World with my kids. What a fantastic game. Do you recommend any of the expansions?
Keith Law: Yes – we use two, one of which is called (I think) the Ladies of Small World and has some clever new races that really alter the way you play.

Erick Fedde: Am I at least a # 4 starter going forward?
Keith Law: I could buy a #4. I wouldn’t bet on more; still pretty homer-prone, secondary stuff has never been good enough for me to call him league-average.

Andy : With the way the Braves have been aggressive with promotions, do you think there is a chance Pache makes the majors at some point next year? He seemed to make significant improvements in his offense.
Keith Law: That I could see, although if Inciarte is still around there may not be a logical place for him.

Michael: Hi Keith, of the Tigers top pitching prospects (Mize, Manning, Burrows, Perez, Faedo), which, if any, do you see destined for the bullpen?
Keith Law: Faedo and Perez have the highest relief risk of the group. Mize has the least.

Del: Best pumpkin related food or drink?
Keith Law: Pumpkin pie. Obviously.

Andy: Bobby Dalbec possible 50 FV? Or too much chase and swing and miss?
Keith Law: That’s an average regular. I can’t see that with a K rate above 1/3 given his age.

thatssotaguchi: Do you think illegalizing birth control would be enough to get the silent majority to get off their asses and vote in an election? I used to think so but now I’m not sure.
Keith Law: I would hope so, but apparently there are a lot of people in this country who want women they don’t even know to have zero right to control their own reproduction.

Marple: Do you think Griffin Canning can be a part of the Angels rotation next year and what is his long term upside?
Keith Law: I could see that if he’s healthy. Mid-rotation starter?

Tom: When does Yusniel Diaz make it to the majors, and whats his upside looking like?
Keith Law: Thought he might get called up this month. Everyday RF.

Jesse B: Can Myles Straw be an everyday CF who bats .250 with 60sbs?
Keith Law: So little power I don’t see an everyday player.

Michael: Is Alex Faedo’s drop in velocity this season something to worry about?
Keith Law: He wasn’t throwing as hard as reported as a college junior. I think this is just what he is.

TP: Which Padres arms currently in the minors will be in their rotation in 2019?
Keith Law: I assume Nix, Paddack, and Logan Allen are in the 2019 rotation for most/all of the year. Morejon should get there later in the year, as should Baez.

Oren: Jameson Taillon seems like he took a strong step forward this year. Is there anymore ceiling for him or is this right around where you expect him?
Keith Law: This is pretty close. He’s really come a long way given all of the health issues he’s faced. Great guy to root for.

Bob: The John Henry owned Boston Globe wrote an article about how deep the Sox are in the lower levels of the minors. PR move or legit?
Keith Law: I don’t agree with that. I think their system is better than generally claimed (it’s not a bottom 3 or bottom 5 system), but they have had a lot of significant prospects get hurt. Still keeping my eye on Scherff as a breakout candidate.

Andrew: Love the chats (and the periscope yesterday), thanks for doing these. Is Johan Camargo a 3+ WAR/yr. player going forward? If no, why not?
Keith Law: I’d take the under on that too. Add him to the list of guys who had no power until he got to hit with the MLB baseball.

Juan: With hindsight was the Quintana trade a smart one for the Cubs or did they get fleeced?
Keith Law: Smart one. They knew what they were paying, but Q was, at the time, one of the top 5 pitchers in the AL.

Gary : Time to really start talking about Jeff McNeil? Do small sample sizes (3/4 of a season) matter less when you’re talking about guys who made major swing changes/adjustments?
Keith Law: He hasn’t played 3/4 of a season. He’s played about five weeks.

ScottyD in Downingtown: Kiriloff starts 2019 at AA? Would a mid-2020 ETA in Minnesota be accurate?
Keith Law: That’s probably right – although really, he might be ready next September, and we’re all arguing about service time manipulation again.

JP: Thoughts on sites nuking their comment sections (ESPN, RAB). I know they are mostly cesspools, but there are some communties that develop.
Keith Law: Moderation is probably impossible. If you’re not willing to block or ban people fairly quickly, the least common denominator will generally win out.

Ryan: Keith – you were notably not on the Moncada hype train before his debut. At this stage, how much more can he realistically become? Thank you
Keith Law: I said on Periscope yesterday that I think he’ll have above-average years and below-average years, rather than settling in at one level of production.

Adam: I don’t understand the use of the opener. Why not pitch a starter twice through the order then go to the bullpen. What does getting the first three outs with a bullpen arm really add?
Keith Law: Because those first three outs tend to be three of the best hitters in the opponent’s lineup.

Devon: Keith, do you see Eloy as the top offensive prospect in the game now?
Keith Law: No, that would be Vlad.

Oscar: What’s a good boardgame for a large group of people (4-8) that’s relatively easy to pick up?
Keith Law: Citadels, Sushi Go, maybe 7 Wonders. If you want something more party game-ish, One Night Ultimate Werewolf or its offshoot Werewords.

Anthony: Any of Detroit’s pitching prospects beyond Mize you’re confident can start?
Keith Law: Burrows can start but may not have huge upside. Manning can start, with work to do on command and secondaries, but he’s around the plate again and still 91-95.

Franknbeans: Luis Patino sure looked good this year. Do you still have him far down the list in San Diego?
Keith Law: He’s exciting but young and kind of small to start. I don’t know where he is offhand on their list but I wouldn’t put him over Tatis, Gore, Mejia, Paddack, Morejon, Baez.

David: Hi KLaw! Would love to buy you a beer (or just say “hi”) at AFL. When do you plan on heading out there?
Keith Law: Looking at week 2. They’re only playing 4 days of games in week one, which means I get just 8 games rather than 10, because of that stupid (and when I say stupid, I mean STUPID) “hitting challenge” that nobody likes.

JG: Did you have a problem with the Donaldson deal?
Keith Law: Yeah, my problem is that the Jays didn’t get enough back.

Anthony: What do you make of Pivetta? His stuff and strikeouts look really good, but maybe he’s got terrible in-zone command?
Keith Law: LHB kill him, because he has no CH or split to get them out.

BK: I’m struggling with WAR. I get that its a stat that is generally good at approximating but it seems like it’s the answer now to certain questions. where I struggle is defense, I can’t understand for example how Cain is worth nearly 2x Arenado or 3x Baez.
Keith Law: I’m not seeing where Cain’s WAR is twice Arenado’s, or even just his defense is.

Jeff: Has your opinion about Reynaldo Lopez changed this year? Fairly small sample, but he’s looked really good lately.
Keith Law: 4.85 FIP this year sounds about right.

Big Tawn: Does Byron Buxton need a change of scenery for his bat to pan out? Can he realistically be a 50 hitter with 50 power?
Keith Law: I think he can be that guy, but I don’t know if he needs a change of scenery, or just, you know, major league at bats.

Kyle: Which is more likely? Keuchel resigned or Josh James being a fixture in the rotation?
Keith Law: Keuchel re-signing seems more likely. James has a tremendous arm, earned a mention in my piece today, but there’s reliever risk there due to the delivery.

Patrick: Any thoughts on the Lorenzo Cain (non)MVP candidacy?
Keith Law: I must have missed something on Brewers Twitter because I thought Cain was clearly a candidate.

Brent : Not to be that guy, but in your post today you mention Cease as playing for ATL and not CWS.
Keith Law: Probably an editor’s mistake. I just send in the file, man. I don’t post it.

Matt: Are Mauer and McCutchen and David Wright HOF players to you? I heard Buster talk about them on the podcast. Just curious.
Keith Law: Mauer will be close. The others I think are on the outside.

JR: Next time someone argues that holding a top prospect down is smart because you will get an extra year of control in 2025, you should suggest they go look at the opening day roster for their favorite team from seven years ago. At best, they might have 5-6 guys still on the current roster. Between injuries, trades, lack of development, regression, getting better players in your system, etc. rosters just turn over so play to develop top talent and win now and instead of 7 years from now. Also, I would argue calling a top prospect up in Sep and letting them get their feet wet is a better intro to the Show then pushing them back a couple weeks in April because they “aren’t ready” They would be ready if you called them up last Sep.
Keith Law: I think a big problem with the “we have to get that extra year of control!” mentality is that fans don’t adequately discount future production. You know where your team is right now, but you have absolutely no idea where your team will be in seven years. We can talk about windows of contention, but we don’t know how long any one window will last. It’s a delusion to think that we know right now where the team will be 7 or even 5 years down the road, and whether the added cost to retain the player will make sense for the club or not. Meanwhile, that prospect might be worth an extra win or more next year, when maybe you’re contending and could use the boost.

Adam: #PadresTwitter is currently ranking Paddack and Patiño ahead of Mackenzie Gore on their team’s prospect lists. Is there a legitimate argument to be made that this is the case or is this just putting too much emphasis on results?
Keith Law: Way too much emphasis on results.

Bill: JaCoby Jones is a lousy hitter but an excellent fielder. If you are the Tigers, can you look the other way on his bat given the number of runs he’s reportedly saves with his glove?
Keith Law: I think he’s just a bench piece, and not even a great one at that.

Rod: Is it possible the Braves win the World Series?
Keith Law: Sure. Any team that makes the playoffs can win, regardless of whether they’re the best playoff team or the worst.

Dr. Bob: Now that your guitar secret is out, can we add guitars to food, politics, games, and music to the chat? I’ve always thought that Skating Away could be done by fingerpicking, but that was never Ian Anderson’s style.
Keith Law: I almost never play anything by fingerpicking. It’s just never been as comfortable for me. I only do it if the song can’t be played any other way.

Jim: I know you were high on Logan Warmoth during the draft. What kind of upside do you think he has?
Keith Law: I was, and then he slugged .317 in high-A this year. Welp.

Matt: Thoughts on Ross Adolph, outfielder in the Mets system? Named Brooklyn’s MVP, any chance he could carve out a role in the big leagues?
Keith Law: He’s 21 and had a .348 OBP in short-season. Way too old for the level.

Robert: How difficult has it been to assess Luis Robert given his lack of playing time and injuries? I keep hearing that it is difficult to evaluate power when a player has had hand/wrist injuries. Is there anything you could see that would suggest the power would come once he is fully healed?
Keith Law: He might be the AFL guy I most want to see, because I keep missing him and he just hasn’t played that much, period.

Migraine Sufferer: As a fellow migrainee, what would you do if you were allergic to NSAIDs?
Keith Law: Try the so-called ‘daith’ piercing.

Jay: Kowar, Lynch, Del Rosario all have been pitching really well for Lexington. Any of those guys potential top 100 at some point?
Keith Law: Feels like Lynch might have pitched himself into that range, although, again, I don’t keep a constantly updated 100 list, so this is an educated guess on how they’ll line up.

Larry: Other than Mize do you think anyone from the 2018 draft will make your top 100 list?
Keith Law: Typically 12-15 June draftees make my January top 100.

silvpak: mondesi’s pop has been something of a surprise, yet his strike zone judgment is….lacking. thoughts on continued development in 2019?
Keith Law: I’d project a sub-.300 OBP next year.

Chris: Because we all know there are some crazy sports parents out there: has the parent of a prospect ever reached out to you after a negative report?
Keith Law: Yes. I do not engage.

Louis: Thoughts on CJ Abrams and Corbin Carroll? Two of the top prep guys for next year?
Keith Law: Yes to both.

Christopher: My 10-year-old son loves baseball but struggles at playing it because he gets paralyzed with anxiety. Among other things, he is terrified at getting hit, stemming from an incident about 2 years ago. As a dad (and coach), I struggle between encouraging and being honest and telling him only he can work through it. I’m very sensitive to this being a larger issue. This can’t be unique though, can it?
Keith Law: That sounds like something that requires therapy. He could easily be traumatized by whatever happened two years ago, and that won’t just go away with time.

Joey: After his NWL season, has your opinion changed on Joey Bart’s hit tool? Or does he still project as a below-average MLB hitter?
Keith Law: He was way too old for the NWL.

Pat D: Isn’t it great that we’re going to have a Supreme Court justice who has committed perjury?
Keith Law: This is America. Get your money.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all, as always, for all of your questions. I’ll be back next week after the ‘players i was wrong about’ column runs for another chat. Enjoy your weekends!

My ESPN+ (Insider) writeup of top prospects at this year’s Future Stars Series, including Georgia prep RHP Daniel Espino and NorCal infielder Glenallen Hill, Jr., went up on Wednesday.

Keith Law: Swept away for a moment by chance. It’s Klawchat.

Nick: Is Blake Swihart still a change-of-scenary- type of guy or is he just a weird positional tweener with a bat that doesn’t profile unless he can add defensive value?
Keith Law: The bat will profile behind the plate, and I think if he gets regular playing time and stays healthy the bat would profile elsewhere too.

David: After LeMahieu isn’t re-signed, the plan is for Brendan Rodgers to play 2B, right? Have to think Story has solidified himself at short. But of course the elephant in the room is Arenado – do you think he stays long-term?
Keith Law: I think Story’s a better defender than Rodgers, so yes, I’d expect that, although I have never seen Rodgers as a guy who’d have to move. They should keep Arenado as long as they’re contending, and move him if they think their window is closing – you don’t want to end up in Baltimore’s situation with Machado where you accept half or less of what you might have gotten had you acted sooner.

Addoeh: Does Joe West look like a baked potato?
Keith Law: I would probably not eat a baked potato that looked like Joe West.

mark: Hi Klaw,

What should SD do with Franmil Reyes moving forward… keep him, trade him? Is he at least an average MLB OF?
Keith Law: I don’t think he has the offspeed recognition or discipline to be a league average OF. I will say that Zack Godley demonstrated that Franmil can murder a dick-high fastball though, so maybe teams shouldn’t throw him those.

Jibraun: The college football season has started, and Kyler Murray is actually playing. How are the A’s actually ok with this?
Keith Law: They agreed to it up front. Why they did that, i’m not sure.

KS: can you rank these players based on future potential — muzziotti, moniak, haseley?
Keith Law: Muzziotti is the only one of the three I’d rank right now.

Archie: Hearing the news about Ohtani needing TJ made me wonder if PRP injections ever worked long-term (or, really short-term). Can you think of anyone who has had the treatment and was productive for any meaningful period of time?
Keith Law: My understanding is that they work for some pitchers with partial tears, but not all, and they don’t work on full tears. Of course, you can come back too soon or put in too much effort after PRP and still further damage the ligament.

BE: With the emphasis on controllable talent increasing, are teams pouring more resources into nutrition, instruction, etc. to maximize those early years?
Keith Law: Some are. I’ve suggested sleep as an area teams could look at to try to gain an edge as well. People who don’t obtain sufficient sleep experience cognitive deficits even after just one night. Imagine trying to hit a 95+ mph fastball with your brain at less than its best.

Santos: How significant is Joe Jordan’s departure from the Phillies?
Keith Law: I think they lost a really great baseball mind. I was also a little surprised as I don’t think player development has been an issue there – I know Jordan resigned, and wasn’t pushed out – while their draft results clearly have been. I don’t think it’s going to affect them dramatically long term but if I were in a GM chair I’d hire Joe in a heartbeat.

Moe Mentum: Can you still envision Scott Kingery and JP Crawford as the Phillies’ middle infielders for the next decade? Or do we need to reset expectations based on 2018’s struggles for each?
Keith Law: Kingery yes. Crawford has to prove himself again to the coaching staff – he has more ability than most players on the team, but isn’t putting in the same kind of effort.

mark: A few weeks ago, someone asked you about Padres prospects who will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft. According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, players eligible this offseason will include Anderson Espinoza, Chris Paddack, Trey Wingenter, Austin Allen, Brett Kennedy and Pedro Avila, while in 2019 it will include Tatis, Logan Allen and Jorge Ona.
Who from that group would you leave unprotected? And who from the following group of Jankowski, Reyes, Renfroe, Manuel Margot, Franchy Cordero, Clayton Richard, Cory Spangenberg and Christian Villanueva would you rather trade or cut in order to protect the prospects?
Keith Law: Wingenter and Kennedy are on the 40-man already, so they are protected unless the Padres outright them; I might consider Kennedy but Wingenter is a keeper. Jankowski, Richard, Spangenberg, and Villanueva are all fungible extra guys, the type they’ll be able to replace from within rather quickly.

Chris: How far off is Yordan Alvarez from being in your top 50? Is his lower ranking due to the fact that he is a 1B?
Keith Law: He’s a bad 1b with an older body.

Quinn: Other than Bo and Vlad, which (if any) Jays prospects should we expect to see in your top 100 this offseason?
Keith Law: Pearson. That’s probably it, which is one reason of several why I laughed at the Jays’ front office claims that they have a top 5 system. After maybe, maybe six names, it drops off fast.

Tadd: Are we all the way back in on Giolito?
Keith Law: I’m mostly back in. Command still a grade below where it ought to be, but stuff looks better, throwing more strikes, mechanics seem at least more consistent if not perfect.

jaren: christian mccaffery a top 5 rb this year in ppr?
Keith Law: This is America – speak English.

Anthony: So where do the Angels go with Ohtani now?
Keith Law: I would plan to give him 2019 off after TJ, rather than rushing back hi bat and risking any sort of re-injury or setback in the rehab.

Evan: What would be your plan with Tyler Mahle? Can he still be a middle of rotation arm?
Keith Law: I think I’d called him a fourth starter/league average guy, and I would stick to that. Some prospects click right away, some take more time.

Joshua: My dad makes some sly comments that can be offensive sometimes (not often) but doesn’t realize it. When I try to correct him he says that he didn’t know that people take offense to it and that people are more soft nowadays. What’s the best way to correct him but not be disrespectful
Keith Law: Well, you could point out that calling other people “soft” is itself insulting – you don’t tell someone they’re ugly and then yell at them for getting upset over it. And once you’ve said something’s offensive, when he does it again, he’s lost that excuse. But for me, the answer has always been simple: If you’re going to make racist, sexist,
homophobic, or other bigoted comments around me – let alone in front of my daughter – I will choose to spend my time with other people.

Craig: If Sarah Sanders wrote the op-ed, could she find work with the Toronto Blue Jays?

“It has nothing to do with business. It has nothing to do with anything other than we think the best thing for him developmentally is to play in Arizona.”

Clearly, i s you pointed out on Twitter, this is laughably false.
Keith Law: I mean, I understand they can’t tell the truth (or Vlad would file and win a grievance), but don’t lie. That’s just such a blatant falsehood. I’ve scouted the AFL myself the last 12 Octobers. It’s a substantially lower caliber of play than September MLB games provide. The comments were a direct insult to the intelligence of every Jays fan.

Rod: Is it safe to assume that Touki is in the rotation next year? What are the odds for Triston McKenzie?
Keith Law: I think Touki’s a starter for most of next year. McKenzie is a starter if he shows he can stay healthy next year in AAA.

Beau: Do you think the Padres rebuild will actually work out?
Keith Law: Absolutely.

Mighty Ox: What is your advice to a high school junior (just turned 16) who aspires to pitch at an Ivy League School or their close equivalent? FB is 85 mph, SAT 1400 (first try), school weighted avg ~100. Good kid. Thanks
Keith Law: I’m not sure what more to tell you – if he’s got the grades, then he should just keep working on his craft on the mound, and maybe look for one or two things to help distinguish his application like quality volunteer work.

Scott: Do the Pirates have any hope of rebuilding their lineup from within or are they going to have to make some major moves? Also, thoughts on Ulysses by James Joyce and any 2018 board games have a chance of Cracking your Top 100?
Keith Law: They’ll have to add at least one piece from outside this winter. I reviewed Ulysses here on the dish in two posts a few years ago. I expect at least 5-6 games from this year to make my top 100 if not more.

Fred: It seems like the Braves are trying to give Philly the division but the Phillies don’t want it. Why is the whole division in a slump?
Keith Law: Maybe both of those teams were playing a bit over their heads? Both blew away any preseason predictions or projections I saw through the start of August.

Nate: Since making his plate adjustment on June 6, Gregory Polanco is slashing 287/362/563/925 (before yesterday’s games) in 300 PA. Only 11 guys have a 925 OPS this year. Is that the type of player he is going to be?
Keith Law: It’s the type of player I believe he should be, given his tools.

Gary : You seem to be lower on Peter Alonso than most. What would you have to see to change your opinion on him? (I guess this is also a general player development question )
Keith Law: I don’t know what “most” think but I know he’s a 40 defender at first.

Jake: Does Daniel Lynch’s uptick in velo this season change his ceiling?
Keith Law: If it sticks, yes, although I was pretty high on him anyway because he has four pitches with a + slider and good control. Plus he’s an animal on the mound.

Victoria: Is Kevin Kramer and Kevin Newman the middle infield combo for the Pirates next year?
Keith Law: We all hope so.

John: Following the Buxton and several other situations. I have seen several proposals for FA starting at age X or X years after being drafted? Do you see any problems of abuse with those ideas?
Keith Law: Any system will be abused, but I like age-related free agency. You can’t do X years after being drafted because such a system would screw college guys – and as much as I counsel players to sign out of HS if the offer is good, plenty of great big leaguers weren’t good enough out of HS to get that money and needed college.

jaren: is luis urias a top talent at his position the next 5 years?
Keith Law: I would bet no.

Jeff: Amed Rosario is on fire – he finally finding his groove? Still crazy young
Keith Law: Still very young, making a lot of contact, wish he walked a little more but he’s not hacking away, and now he’s getting some better results on balls in play. I haven’t changed my projection that he’ll end up a star.

Josh Nelson: What are your thoughts about MLBPA hiring Bruce Meyer to be the Chief Negotiator (what a title)?
Keith Law: They’ve made a few major hires recently that signal to me that they intend to enter the next negotiations with a firmer negotiating stance. They did not sufficiently exercise their power two years ago. They need to regain some lost ground.

Drew: Are you familiar with the British punk band IDLES? Their new album, Joy as an Act of Resistance, is so damn good.
Keith Law: I feel like I’ve heard one of their songs, but I’ve put it on in the background now to check it out.

Marshall MN: Klaw, when you go to a new well reviewed coffee shop in a different city do you have a go to drink that you try as a point of comparison against other coffee houses? I know you are a light roast guy, is that your point of comparison?
Keith Law: My favorite coffee drink is a traditional macchiatto – a double shot of espresso topped with a little foamed milk. A pour-over would be a better gauge of a shop’s beans, but it’s also going to depend then on which specific beans you get; generally third-wave shops have their own specific blends for espresso that are more consistent, or, in the case of a place like Cartel in Phoenix, they find a single origin bean that they think will profile well as an espresso.

jaren: clevinger has looked like he’s moving into the top 15 or so starting pitchers as far as talent. would you agree? did you ever expect this from this kid? he’s been downright nasty in the second half
Keith Law: I would not agree.

romorr: Would you say the Oriole minor league pitchers, as a whole, had a promising year?
Keith Law: There’s been a lot of progress from their A-ball guys, which is where their most important pitching prospects were.

Marshall MN: What are your thoughts on the Twins handling of Buxton at the end of this year?
Keith Law: Completely disagree with it, and I think he should file a grievance – I think more players should fight these manipulations, because teams do it with impunity right now.

Rum Guy: Big fan of your music playlists, thx. I have a question about your equipment-when you’re listening to these music files, other than thru earbuds —- do you have floor speakers in your home & can u reveal what you own for home use?
Keith Law: I don’t own any music equipment like that.
Keith Law: OK, that’s about enough of that IDLES record. If I wanted to get yelled at I have other places I can go.

Jim: What kind of upside do you see for Jordan Groshans?
Keith Law: I could see an above-average regular if he finds more power – which I think would require a swing alteration as right now it’s a little flat. Good athlete with a great arm. I would probably bet that he’s a regular, but there’s more upside.

Justin: This year Ke’Bryan Hayes suddenly looks like a guy who can hit for a high average, play great defense, run, and hit for some power (all while being at least a little young for AA). What has to happen for him to become a top 25 (or better) type prospect? Add a little more power?
Keith Law: He was already 42 on my most recent list.

Carl: Can Baltimore salvage Chance Sisco or will he need a new manager & coaching staff?
Keith Law: I think he needs a new manager there or a change of scenery if Showalter returns.

jwp: Roughned Odor looks like he has a different approach at the plate. Do you think it sticks long term?
Keith Law: I think it does – i’ll be certain if he maintains it into next season. But I don’t think there are many examples of guys who see their BB% jump like this in their 20s and then lose it all.

EL: Could Chris Shaw benefit from more AAA time, or is he what he is at this point?
Keith Law: He’s a 4A guy for me.

JR: All these Kavanaugh hearings are doing is reinforcing what an awful person he is and how we shouldn’t want him on SCOTUS and yet he will be nominated anyways. Am I missing anything?
Keith Law: He’ll be confirmed anyways, yes, because nothing matters except packing the courts to overturn abortion rights, affirmative action laws, and maybe gay marriage.

Lois Sanborn: Hi Keith, thanks for all of your work! It always makes me happy to hear your thoughts on baseball and non-baseball topics alike. How would you project Alex Kirilloff’s game power going forward? I just looked up his spray chart from this season and noticed that he hit 11 of his 20 HRs to left or left-center, which was surprising to me.
Keith Law: I think he’s a plus hit plus power guy in a corner. Great prospect only limited by positional value.

Jimmy: Best Astros prospect that sees playing time in 2019?
Keith Law: I see no reason Whitley isn’t up next year.

Richard Van Norris: Have you watched Tim Anderson’s defense lately? Since mid May or so he has been exceptional. Is he the long term White Sox shortstop?
Keith Law: Was there a question about his defense or that he was their long-term shortstop? I really never gave that a second thought.

Jerry: Didn’t Josh James take off after getting treatment for sleep apnea? Do you see him as a legit MLB prospect? If so, as a SP or RP?
Keith Law: I believe that explanation is bullshit. More likely RP.

Nick L: True or False: This will be the best year of Javy Baez’s career.
Keith Law: False.

Jeff: Has Jose Peraza surprised you at all? Have the Reds found their shortstop for the next 5+ years?
Keith Law: No, I think they can and will do better. He’s probably not reaching 2 WAR this year.

JR: All yesterday had was: 1. Red Sox win game after being down 7-1, with a HR from a long time vet who played in minors all year hoping for a chance to get back. 2. Ohtani going 4-for-4 with 2 HRs after it was announced he needs TJ surgery. 3. Trevor Story hit 3 HRs, including one where’s falling down and one 505 feet. 4. Javy Baez making another amazing play on the basepaths. All in the midst of teams playing for playoff positions. All the people that say the game isn’t as good today as it used to be can please GTFO.
Keith Law: And yet the current headlines on MLB.com are: 1. Five craziest, most magical games of 2018. 2. Here’s what 2019 ‘super teams’ could look like. 3. Bregman channels Harden … not the beard. 4. On the bubble: How MLBers chew gum. Are you kidding me? All that crazy shit happens and the league itself is talking about chewing gum? I can’t even say ‘please like my sport’ if the league won’t back me up by promoting all this great stuff happening on the field.

Marshall MN: What level of competition do you consider Arizona Fall League…sort of Double A-ish?
Keith Law: Inconsistent, but in general below that unless you get a Whitley type on the mound.

Nick L: Roberta’s in Brooklyn was legit!
Keith Law: I wouldn’t steer you wrong.

Nick L: Who’s your favorite stand up comedian?
Keith Law: I really like the ones who don’t sexually harass or assault other people. But that’s just me.

Ray: to follow up on Joshua’s comment – I was recently in a room with my sister and father during a conversation they were having about a third person. My father asks, “is he black?” and my sister responds, “he is, but he doesn’t act black”. My head about exploded and I just left the room. I should have spoken up.
Keith Law: It’s hard to react correctly in the moment, at least in my experience. I told this story before, but years ago, I was at the Big 12 tournament in Oklahoma (of course), when a Texas fan asked me how the Aggies looked in football … but he put an ‘f’ before the word. I asked him to repeat himself twice, hoping he’d get it, before his wife grabbed his arm and told him to stop. I should have come back at him harder, but in the moment, I was so floored – it had truly been years since I’d heard that word or its other forms spoken at all – that I didn’t call him out directly. That was six years ago, I think, and I’m still disappointed.

Darren: In regards to David suggesting Rodgers plays 2B in Colorado, what do you think of Garrett Hampson?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s better than Rodgers or Story.

Lance: Nolan Gorman: Superstar? Above Average Regular? Just A Guy?
Keith Law: I’ll go with above-average regular with wide error bars around that prediction. It’s 80 raw.

Jim: German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Jon Gray, which one has the highest ceiling at this point?
Keith Law: Gray still has the most upside, Freeland is the best present pitcher.

Steve: Gausman has pitched a lot better for the Braves. Another example of the O’s failing to develop a prospect? Function of switching NL? Both? Too early to tell?
Keith Law: That one is squarely on the coaching staff.

Pat D: So the venerable River Ave. Blues has decided to shut down their comment section. I have mixed feelings. I made a lot of really good friends there, to the point where we’ve gone to several games together, but the comments had been getting steadily worse over the last few years, they couldn’t spend time moderating them properly, and apparently now someone was threatening the owners in some way. Totally justified for them to shut it down considering those circumstances, right?
Keith Law: Agreed, totally justified. I may do the same with the comments here at some point, unfortunately.

MikeM: Whats wrong with Luis Severino?
Keith Law: I don’t know if something is physically wrong but he’s visibly not the same and hitters are squaring him up way more often, like they did in 2016.

Dallas: Will Bobby Witt Jr.’s age effect his draft status or will pedigree trump/neutralize it?
Keith Law: His age will work against him, absolutely.

Darryl: Do you have an updated list for good Nashville eateries? Wife and I going for first time in 2 weeks and I want to hit a couple gems. Thanks in advance!
Keith Law: Nothing new since my last visit, I think.
Keith Law: or last post, I should say.

Tony: Do you think Rougned Odor has actually learned some plate discipline? I was completely blown away when I saw he had a .343 OBP
Keith Law: Career high in BB. 10 HBP might be misleading you a little, but yes, I think he has.

Biff: 1. Winker 2. Votto 3. Suarez 4. Gennett 5. Senzel – that lineup will score some runs eh?
Keith Law: I think so – should put a lot of guys on base, at least.

AGirlHasNoName: At what point can I just give up on society and just accept that chaos reigns, and we are all taking a ride on the good ship FUBAR? Is not caring who wrote the NYT op-ed, not being surprised at its content, mean I am already there? I have outrage fatigue maybe.
Keith Law: Yeah I couldn’t get worked up over the op ed … it was so self-congratulatory, and for what? If that’s what the guy is, then invoke the damn 25th already.

joe: If I liked Lush Life – R. Price, what else do you recommend?
Keith Law: His book Clockers is also pretty good.

Jax: Do you think Kershaw opts out after the season?
Keith Law: Yes, for sure.

Nate: You’ve been beating the drum on trading Inciarte for some time. What would be a reasonable return for a streaky Gold Glover?
Keith Law: Less than it would have been a year ago when I suggested it and was insulted eight ways to Sunday.

Tony: I know that Jose Quintana wasn’t exactly an ace with the White Sox, but is there anything you have seen with the Cubs that explains why he has been less effective? Most of the numbers seem similar, although his walks are up a little bit.
Keith Law: Fastball command has looked way off.

Lance: Is Jack Flaherty’s early success in St. Louis sustainable long term barring injury?
Keith Law: Yes. Always liked him over several of their other pitchers like Weaver or Hudson.

Marvin Miller: 4 year Free Agency, elimination of arbitration….the next CBA….take it to bank….
Keith Law: Would love to see it but owners will fight tooth and nail on that.

JT: The Rowdy Tellez circumstance is hard to hear about. Do you ever bury stories you know that would be exculpatory about poor performance? Does learning about his mother affect your rating of Tellez? (or earn him another look?)
Keith Law: It’s a very sad story, but he was never a good prospect, and I can’t let sentiment change my assessment of his tools or swing or other deficiencies.

Ridley Kemp: Keith, I mostly just wanted to thank you for pointing me towards “Why We Sleep”. It was more of an eye-opener for me than it probably should have been. I’m making a point of getting 8 hours of sleep a night and the difference in how I feel in the morning is enormous.

Also, if you’re ever in Austin again, you should check out a restaurant called Loro. It’s a joint venture by Tyson Cole (Uchi) and Aaron Franklin (you probably know his claim to fame), and unlike most supergroups, this one does not disappoint.
Keith Law: The real issue here is that I need a good reason to get back to Austin. All these Texas arms and they’re never from there.

Adam D.: Do you view the Giants system as one that could find itself in the top-10 or 15 in the next 18 months? Ramos, Canario, Bart and Luciano seem like the makings of a potentially impact set of players.
Keith Law: Extremely unlikely. I would guess I’m lower than you are on Bart or Ramos, too.

Steven : Are you a Bon Iver fan? If so have you listened to the Justin Vernon and Aaron Dessner collaborative album?
Keith Law: I’m not, and I didn’t like their new project, even with the baseball name: Big Red Machine.

Mighty Ox: Hi Keith! Does Andujar stay at 3rd base or is he destined for DH?
Keith Law: Third base.

addoeh: Aren’t we in a Constitutional crisis already with un-elected officials actively allowing or taking away which bills our failed leader signs? And the senior official (or officials) are worried about the 25th Amendment?
Keith Law: Yes … and one party does not care as long as they get what they want.

Draftnik: No question, just FYI Michael Lorenzen and Aaron Nola both had PRPs and avoided surgery (so far).
Keith Law: Thank you. I think there are many examples – but they all had relatively minor tears, not full tears.

Dr. Bob: Are all of the players on the field in the AFL prospects signed by MLB teams? Or do they have to sometimes fill out a roster with some college or extra players so that they can have full games?
Keith Law: Always MLB teams, although frankly I wouldn’t be mad if they allowed, say, an NPB or KBO player or two to pop in, maybe someone approaching free agency or whom the parent team wants to post.

cplo: I saw Luis Ortiz got the call up in Baltimore. Has he shown enough over his minor league career to prove he can stick as a starter?
Keith Law: Stuff yes, durability an open question.

Xavier: Is there a valid argument for someone other than Degrom winning Cy Young?
Keith Law: Yes, Nola and Scherzer are right there with him.

John: Has Lewis Thorpe put himself back on the top 100 radar this year with the better performance and being 2 years removed from TJ?
Keith Law: Not yet, not unless the stuff ticks up.

Bill: Should Machado go back to 3B or should he stay at SS?
Keith Law: Third base, where he’s plus. His little time at short hasn’t been promising.

mike sixel: It would be sad if comments went away, we (I) like the interaction……is it really that bad?
Keith Law: I have had to keep moderation on for two years now because of a very small number of abusive people (two, maybe three). One is pretty much a single comment away from me going to the police.

Matt: Honestly, I think if what Fred Wilpon reportedly wants, which is a GM that’s anti-analytics and also has no authority to overrule the owners, I’m out. Probably not forever, but they won’t be getting my money for a long time. Analytics or no, what the team desperately needs in a Prez of Baseball Ops, because Jeff has failed, and the organization reeks of disfunction.
Keith Law: I saw an article this week that listed way too many names, some of whom were good ones, some of whom were not (and really, can we not hire a GM who’s failed in multiple stops already, and give someone else a chance), but that said at the end that the Mets haven’t contacted anyone and no one really knows what they’re thinking. I believe Joel Sherman wrote it but I’m not 100%. But that last part is the lede: We’re all just guessing until they start calling to ask for permission.

Zac: What does Jacoby Jones have to hit to be a glove first everyday CF?
Keith Law: Dude is 26 with a .255 OBP in about 600 MLB PA. Time to let that one go.

Lucky Lindy: Speaking of players turning it around post-trade — shouldn’t people in Texas be fired with how Cole Hamels has improved since going to the Cubs?
Keith Law: I would at least have some questions for the pitching coach(es) about what might have gone wrong, and why the Cubs figured something out that quickly when we didn’t.

tomm: obviously predicting what kind of player a prospect will become is very difficult, especially when it comes to projecting hit/in game power tool. when it comes to pure speed, however, it would seem easier because its just timed and far less up to opinion. that being said, how did bader not get an 80 speed in the minors? Tied for second in the mlb statcast speed. did he get much faster?
Keith Law: He’s not an 80 runner now, but he also was nowhere close to this fast when he signed – I even talked to someone in STL recently who confirmed this.

John: The best part of the op-ed was the self own by an editor at the Federalist who claimed the founding fathers would be rolling over in their graves about the use of anonymity
Keith Law: That whole thread is worth checking out – one expert on the subject kept setting him straight, and the dude kept digging … and digging … and digging … like, my man, take the L already, you lost.

John: If I’m LA, I’m happy if Kershaw opts out. I may just be inclined to shake his hand, thank him, and not give him another 6 years and $180 million.
Keith Law: Easy to say, but he’s an iconic player for the Dodgers, and they’d have a lot of fans to appease if he leaves – plus he takes several wins of value with him that they can’t easily replace.

GP: Since you said it was too early to judge the Archer trade, Archer had a great outing and Glasnow had a disastrous one and it appears Meadows injured his hand. I just wanted to say that
Keith Law: Yeah maybe a month is too soon, i dunno

Grande Esteban: Why didn’t the Angels just tell Ohtani once he signed that he needed Tommy John surgery and he would start the season in the minors until he was healthy enough to come up, and if he didn’t do that, they’d just send him to the minors anyway to start the year? That would have gotten the surgery done right away, and also would have gotten them an extra year of service time.
Keith Law: He didn’t need the surgery right away, and you can’t just tell an employee to go have surgery.

Ben: Wander Franco an overall top 10 prospect to you?
Keith Law: He was #17 on my last update, and graduations alone may push him up a few spots.

Jake: Nick Pratto…is he the first half guy, the second half guy, or the last month guy?
Keith Law: He’s the overall season guy. I don’t like to get too worked up over 2nd half minor league splits, because over the course of a season, the best players in a league will get promoted, and be replaced by, in theory, inferior players from lower levels.

Jeff: Not calling you out or anything – Just having fun – but remember when your ESPN chats used to be JobaMania? Good times. You’ve been doing these chats a long time and I appreciate it.
Keith Law: Twelve years of Klawchats, in fact. My first one was July 2006, I think, maybe a month after I joined. May we all live another 12 years to argue over Joba’s large adult son.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all, as always, for your questions and for reading. I believe my next Insider column is my minor league player of the year piece, although I doubt there’s much suspense in the winner. Have a safe and fun weekend, everyone.

My review of the beautiful new worker-placement game Everdell is up at Paste.

Keith Law: Sayonara, tomorrow, now he’s blood on the ground. It’s Klawchat.

Go Go Gadget Hamate Bone: Any noticeable change to Luis Urias’ hitting profile since adopting the leg kick tweak?
Keith Law: No, not that I think he really needed one. If anything changed, it’s that he got to hit in El Paso.

Joe: Keith, is it fair to question Showalter’s handling of young players? He sat Sisco on the bench for long periods earlier in the year and now he is sitting Mullins to get a look at some guy named John Andreoli.
Keith Law: I think it’s fair, yes. He certainly seems like he’s never taken a liking to Sisco, at least. He hasn’t been the same with young pitchers, though – if anything he might have used them too much.

Dana: How stupid do the Yankees fans who booed Stanton in April look right now?
Keith Law: Any fans who boo players in April look stupid. I’m not big on booing players period, but every year, a handful of great players will get off to ‘slow’ starts. So to answer your question, they look grade 80 stupid.

Gene: Keith, a couple of contracts remain to be shed or survived, but is there any way to accelerate the rebuild in Baltimore? With their luck with the draft and player development, I can’t foresee any return to competitiveness within the next three to five years. The farm, with a few exceptions seems to be littered with spare parts, fourth outfielders, relief pitchers, and offensive pieces without defensive positions. Is there any light at the end of the tunnel?
Keith Law: They’ve drafted better the last few years, I think. Certainly a lot of arms in the lower levels right now. They need to do something more on the international front, of course. My argument has been that ownership waited too long to trade Machado, and as a result, the return was just OK, but seems unlikely to deliver them any cornerstones.

Pathmark: What is the optimal Sep/Oct use of Justus Sheffield in terms of what is best for him and the team?
Keith Law: I’d like to see him get some long relief outings. One, it’s a good way to break in a young starter. Two, what I have heard from multiple scouts this year is that he’s not showing the command he’ll need to be a mid-rotation starter or better. He’s super athletic and very smart, and the delivery is fine, so there’s no real reason he can’t get there – but he’s not there yet. Reps in the majors could help.

James: Before Chris Paddack was shut down his fastball was apparently touching 98. Is that just a blip or is that a newfound velocity post TJ?
Keith Law: I saw 95 or 96 in March. 98 wouldn’t shock me but I don’t think he’s going to pitch there. The question around his upside revolves around his breaking ball anyway, not his velocity. I don’t think he’s markedly different with a 92-95 mph fastball or a 92-98 mph fastball.

Pathmark: Do you watch the LLWS? Thoughts on the quality of play or perils of the excessive breaking balls?
Keith Law: I don’t watch it. Don’t care as much about breaking balls as I do about kids trying to throw too hard.

Nick: I read your recent report on Adam Haseley; is there reason to be concerned about the Phillies’ ability to develop hitters given your report as well as Moniak and Randolph’s struggles? Or is this just bad luck?
Keith Law: Neither was a great pick for his spot. I think if there’s been a weakness in the Phillies’ rebuild, it’s been in the draft. Their trades have been solid and their international amateur department keeps finding gold.

Joe: Good afternoon, Keith. Roy Halladay: Hall of Famer?
Keith Law: I’ve given my provisional ballot before – he’s on the bubble. I had seven definites for ten spots, I think, and then 6-7 guys I’d consider for the last three. He’s in the latter group.

Jason : As an Oakland fan I still can’t believe this team is competing. They are bringing up guys that I have never heard of and they keep coming. First off is this one of the worst lineups from a talent aspect that you have seen competing for a playoff spot this late in the season? Who should get credit for this (besides the players) front office? manager? organization as a whole?
Keith Law: You can credit all of those plus acknowledge they’ve had a lot of luck this year. They’ve collected a lot of guys who probably wouldn’t be as good without the juiced ball to help. They’ve had guys like Matt Chapman make enormous (but apparently very real) development leaps in the majors. Sean Manaea is 2 innings short of qualifying for the ERA title for the year, which is either luck or credit to the training staff or both. But also picking up discards for the rotation seems more like when the Yankees acquired Aaron Small and he had two months that were completely out of nowhere.

The Killer Klaw: There are a lot of ‘dudes’ that Padres fans want to keep track of. Should Tucupita Marcano be one of them?
Keith Law: He is; he was mentioned in my preseason Padres writeup, and it’s very rare for me to mention DSL guys at all because we really know virtually nothing about them.

Nick: If you’re Josh Donaldson, do you sign a one-year “prove it” deal in hopes you returns to form (4-5 win players) and sign a better deal in 2019? Or is that too risky given his age and injury?
Keith Law: He might not get any long-term offers after this year, so if he’s just getting one- and two-year deals he should consider taking the one-year deal and hoping he’s healthy enough for 140 games.

Reuben Amaro Jr.: Considering the Phillies have outperformed their run differential this year how would you approach next year if you were management? Do you think their young pieces will be ready to make that leap next year or would you target 2020 as the year to go all in? Asking for a friend…
Keith Law: I think they already started to go in with Arrieta and Santana; there’s no reason to stop now, especially in a huge free agent class with plenty of cash available. I do think they’ll have some real decisions to make, like whether JP Crawford, who seems not to have clicked with the new coaching staff, is part of the future or needs a change of scenery. I don’t think their top prospect arms are going to be ready till the middle of next year, which could also inform their decision-making.

Jed: Any info on Robert Puason? Top 2019 J2 guy?
Keith Law: I don’t follow that market, sorry.

The BigSauce: Eloy Jimenez raking and the call up watch is T- 1.5 days. Do they do the right thing and make the call for the next series home opener? Sticking in the central does Lovelady get the call too?
Keith Law: I think they’ll call up Eloy, since he’s already on the 40-man. No clue on Lovelady – he’s a reliever, not someone you manipulate service time on.

Trevor: I refuse to believe Arenado has 3 DRS this year when he’s never had less than 16 in a season. The baseline defensive stats are there so is the statistic flawed or is he having a down year defensively?
Keith Law: He’s been having a down year defensively. You’ve sort of made the argument from personal incredulity – it isn’t true because I can’t believe it’s true.

Trevor: Can we please give the creator of the opener a raise. Hearing the Braves announcers bash the idea, whilst citing Teheran’s 1st inning struggles and the Rays AL best ERA since it’s inception, is laughable.
Keith Law: Given what’s gone on this year down there, it’s a good night if those guys aren’t laughable.

Bill G: Hi Keith. Seems like expansion to 32 teams is inevitable. Would you favor 4 divisions of 8 teams, or 8 divisions of 4 teams (like NFL). Would you favor geographical alignment or a more traditional AL and NL. Thanks!
Keith Law: Fewer divisions. Adding divisions increases the chances of a sub-.500 team making the playoffs.

Abed: The Pirates farm system seems pretty barren, and I thought this before the Baz inclusion was announced. Now, outside of the core group (Keller/Hayes/Swaggerty, and to a lesser extent, Tucker/Cruz) is there anyone else worth getting excited over? Someone who has made a major leap in your eyes this year?
Keith Law: Cruz has made the biggest leap. Hayes has really established himself as at least a solid average hitter with a 70 glove. I might have said Calvin Mitchell earlier this year but he cooled off quite a bit and doesn’t offer any value beyond the bat.

Zach: I know Trevor Williams isn’t a 3.30 ERA (his 2018 figure) caliber pitcher, but going back to last season, as a starter, he sports a 3.99 FIP (50 starts). Is it stretching it to say he’s a high-3s/low-4s ERA caliber starter?
Keith Law: No, I don’t think that’s stretching it at all. Probably just about right.

Danny: Kevin Newman made his debut last week – a guy I know you absolutely loved coming out of the draft. His time in the minors has been a bit of a disappointment, but do you believe that he can still be a starting caliber middle infielder?
Keith Law: I do, but he has to bring some of the power he’ll show in BP into games more. He really hasn’t done enough to try to drive the ball. He’s going to make a ton of contact, he can play short, he’ll add value on the bases, but he needs to be more of a 35 doubles, 10 homers guy.

Ron: Hi Keith- How many more productive years of being a catcher would have made Mauer a HOFer? If he could of had 3 or 4 years more behind the plate, could he have knocked on the door? Too bad he had to move.
Keith Law: He might still get there. I could see him becoming a cause celebre among the stat crowd, because his career value requires more than a cursory look at the old stats.

Buddy: Surprised by Cardinals turnaround?
Keith Law: No.

J.P.: As we await your writeup on Manning (and the Senators/Wolves), were you pleasantly surprised by how he handled his Double-A debut or no?
Keith Law: No, I wouldn’t say that. He was fine, three average pitches, changeup might have been a 55. What I really liked was how they’ve gotten his delivery to make better use of his height. He extends way out over his front side now, and he must have some of the best extension in the minors now. That helped the fastball, which was 91-95 without a lot of life, really play up even in the zone. Hitters reacted like they didn’t have enough time.

John: Greg Bird drawing a lot of ire from Yankees fans. (You hate to see that.) Justified?
Keith Law: I think it’s been unfair of the org to talk him up as a future first baseman given the state of his defense even before the injuries. Let him DH and hope he hits like he did as a prospect – low average but tons of walks and 25+ homers.

Ted: How do you feel about the A’s strategy to target high-ceiling/high-risk players like Beck and Murray in recent drafts over other players that were generally deemed to be “safer” because they wouldn’t be able to afford these high-upside players on the open market? How do you feel about Beck as a prospect? Keep up the great work. Thanks.
Keith Law: I go back and forth on Beck; he’s only 19, and he struck out a lot less this year than I expected, but, damn, Gina, where the heck did the 70 raw power go?

Mike: Playing Azul with people who primarily work the top rows, how do you maximize your score in what ends up being a quick race to the finish?
Keith Law: Try to hit the big bonuses – the 10 point bonus for getting the same color in all five rows or the 7 points for finishing a column. I think those exist in the game to balance out the top-rows people (who suck, just play the fucking game right, people).

JR: Is the Klaw Factory hiring? Does it offer decent pay/benefits?
Keith Law: There’s one employee and he gets worked to death.

Justin: Shane Bieber’s having a respectable rookie season. Do you think his command is advanced enough that he can reduce the hard contact and BABIP issues as he goes around the league/learns hitters?
Keith Law: I think he can mitigate them enough to be a solid fourth starter. His stuff is marginal enough in today’s game that BABIP/hard contact will just be part of his game in most seasons.

Rob : From your pre-season review of the Mets farm system it seemed you liked the upside in the system assuming bouncebacks from injuries etc. Any updated thoughts based on how this MiLB season played out?
Keith Law: Several of those guys did bounce back, right? Dunn and Kay did. Peterson’s been very good outside of a dead-arm stretch. Lindsay has been a big disappointment (and got hurt again, I believe). Newton’s been a surprise. Kelenic and Woods-Richardson have both looked great in their debuts. Mauricio has made himself a Guy in the GCL. The farm isn’t the problem. It’s been a combination of bad roster management in the majors, ownership involvement, and for a while a manager who was just not up to the job.

Tristan: While acknowledging that being consumed by a Rookie of the Year vote is a bit silly, the race in the AL is quite interesting this year. Ohtani, Torres and Andujar all look like guys who’ll have good careers. And on a rate basis you can argue Ohtani has outhit the Yankee kids. He hasn’t played defense, though. Do voters give him credit for those 9 starts (and for being Amazing)? Would you?
Keith Law: Of course Ohtani should get credit for those starts. I would seriously object to any voter claiming they would only consider him as a pitcher or a hitter. You add up all the value of everything he’s done and compare him to the other candidates.
Keith Law: Oh, I have no ballot this year. How droll.

Paul: Is this offensive version of Matt Chapman here to stay? If so, what is your long-term projection?
Keith Law: I’m buying. Way improved approach at the plate. All-Star.

Bob Pollard: Know you’re high on Wander Franco, but am wondering what you think his ceiling is (apologies if you’ve noted this). Are we looking at a Lindor-type superstar SS?
Keith Law: Less of a runner, not the same defender, more average and more raw power. (Then again, Lindor is going to hit 30+ again this year, so I no longer know what average power looks like.)

JR: You buying Zack Wheeler stock? He’s on a very impressive streak. Possible he’s finally fully recovered from TJ surgery and this is who he can be going forward?
Keith Law: He’s looked as good as I can remember him looking since he was in the low minors.

Bighen: What’s the Mets 2019 plan if it doesn’t include spending serious money which just isn’t going to happen. You can squint and see a decent team if a few breaks go their way. You can also see a full blown disaster if 1 or 2 big things go wrong. Tough needle to thread
Keith Law: Agreed. If I were named their GM (that’s not happening, this is hypothetical), I’d shop deGrom for sure this winter, as his value will never be higher, and you pretty much have to use him to try to get some more impact into the system. I don’t think they’re a few breaks away from contention next year; they’re a lot of breaks away.

JR: SSS, but Amed Rosario has looked much better at the plate of late, which is encouraging. It seems like there have been a lot of top prospects that have debuted over the past few years and immediately played well, so when a top prospect takes some time to develop (which is fine), the hot takes come fast and furious. Oh, and it helps when they play you everyday at your normal position cough Dominic Smith cough.
Keith Law: Your middle point in there is the salient one: Not every great player performed in his first stint in the majors. Josh Donaldson made my top 100 list one year, bounced around via trades, had some injuries, didn’t hit that well at first, and became an MVP candidate in his late 20s. Even Mike Trout wasn’t Willie Mays in his first month or so in the majors at age 19. Just be patient.

Drew: If Madson and Gio are still in Washington come Saturday, will Mike Rizzo be guilty of managerial malpractice?
Keith Law: Too strong. Those guys have some real value to contenders. We’re not talking Jose Bautista here.

George : I feel like people are being way too quick on evaluating the Archer trade. Lots of good pitchers have bad months
Keith Law: Yes and give the Pirates an offseason to get to know the guy and work with him. I saw most of his last outing vs Milwaukee, and there was some really bad pitch selection in addition to the usual problems with location. You can’t get beat like that on sliders to lefties unless you are burying that sucker at his back foot.

Ted: The Sox have 3 third basemen, Devers, Dalbec and Chavis. Who should be the long term Sox third baseman and where should the others play or should they be traded?
Keith Law: Devers is the best overall player of the three and I would take him. Dalbec has emerged as a prospect, and can really play third, but he’s had a 30%+ K rate at every level of full-season ball, and I can’t fully buy into him as a big league caliber bat. Chavis can hit some but I’ve never liked his defense at third in the past.

Bruce: With all the second generation hitters taking prospect lists by storm nowadays, any reason for a Giants fan to get excited about Luis Gonzalez’s kid Jacob? Stat line this year doesn’t show much promise, but maybe you have more insight?
Keith Law: Thought he was a reach in the second round. Older HS kid too, turned 19 just after the draft, so he’s young but not THAT young. I thought he was power over hit, as did a lot of scouts I asked.

Darius: Archer for Meadows, Glasnow and Baz…one month in, does this look like a bad trade for the Pirates or too soon to tell?
Keith Law: Too soon to tell.

Jim: What is going on with Riley Pint? He hasn’t pitched in forever. Is he just done? Any chance he regains top 100 status down the line?
Keith Law: The story has been a forearm injury and then an oblique strain and then a paper cut and then he caught smallpox … and would it surprise anyone at this point if we heard he had TJ surgery? Not me. Huge arm and gifted athlete who has always had trouble throwing strikes. I heard he was looking worse earlier this year in the control department; maybe that was the injury’s fault.
Keith Law: I don’t foresee him being a top 100 guy unless he can find the plate.

Shuck Bowalter: What’s your hot take on Moncada? Future All Star, or all time over-hype bust?
Keith Law: Somewhere in between those two.

OoOoO: The Rangers have Taylor Hearn, Joe Palumbo and Jonathan Hernandez all at AA Frisco right now. Are any of them legitimate starting pitching prospects, or are they all relievers in your mind?
Keith Law: Maybe starter, probable starter, likely reliever.

Paul: Is there a specific reason the Mets aren’t bringing Alonso up? Is it a service time issue?
Keith Law: Where does he play?

Ben: Not that you would ever publish one, but do you have a list of worst tools in the majors in your head?
Keith Law: A few come to mind, yes.

Bobby Higginson: What Erie prospects impressed you most last night?
Keith Law: Great to see Castro live for the first time this year. Also Paredes showed what he always shows, dude can really hit. Alcantara might have a 70 arm. Manning I discussed above.

Evan: Saw you tweeted you were at Matt Manning’s game last night. Has your longterm outlook on him changed?
Keith Law: See above. More optimistic now that he’s getting that extension out front. An above-average breaking ball would be nice, but he has better feel for his changeup anyway.

Mike: I noticed you’ve touted Micker Adolfo a few times in the past. What kind of player could you see him developing into? Do you think there’s top 100 upside once he’s back on the field in 2019?
Keith Law: He’ll be someone I consider for the top 100 this winter.

Oscar: Has your outlook on Julio Urias’ potential comeback changed at all? Recent reports have him up to 94mph, but I know that’s not the be-all-end-all.
Keith Law: I don’t believe that, and it really doesn’t matter until he shows he can do that in game situations.

Rob : Javy Baez was named most popular player by little league world series players. Shouldn’t that be a sign to MLB owners and players that its OK to look like you’re having fun while playing?
Keith Law: Yes. Except if you look at MLB owners – the players aren’t the problem here, not overall – you don’t see a lot of people who look like Javy, do you?

Pat D: I was reading a story about the possibility of Elsa having a girlfriend in Frozen 2. A commenter said he had no problem with homosexuality being “accepted,” but objected to it being “normalized” to younger generations. I challenged him to define the difference in the terms and he said that something that isn’t most “common” means that it’s not normal. I ended the conversation right there, though he took that as a win for himself. Is there really any hope for progress with attitudes like that?
Keith Law: Reading the comments was your first mistake. You will not win with those people. They’re already a minority, and they will die off, with their outdated attitudes. LGBTQ+ acceptance is the new normal, as it damn well should be. I personally have never found some stranger’s orientation or gender identity to have any effect on my life. And there are people I love dearly in the LGBTQ+ community. I hope I can simply keep people who might be unsure where they stand on these issues from falling into the fallacious thinking of those who preach hate and bigotry.

Josh in DC: Aside from “let him have fun,” do you have any advice for my 9-year old son’s father, a man whose son is about to try pitching for the first time?
Keith Law: Don’t throw all out – throw comfortably hard, no harder.

Juwan: Assuming you view Soto and Acuna as the front runners for rookie of the year, how do you evaluate their respective candidacies? Acuna has the higher WAR, but Soto seems destined to finish with 20 or so home runs (perhaps he’ll take the record for a teenager), while having a .400+ OPS. Does the additional year of development for Acuna factor into your decision (as well as the teenage records Soto might set), or do you simply evaluate them based on objective performance this season?
Keith Law: I do consider a player’s age for RoY, since that’s an award designed to highlight a future star. I don’t think that award will be settled until the last few days of the season.

Mike: Is David Bote an every day player? He’s been a good story and I enjoy watching him but curious as to what your opinion of him is
Keith Law: I think so. Maybe not for the Cubs once everyone is healthy, but for someone, yes.

Bill: If you were the Braves would you look to offer a long term contract to Folty and buy out some his arb/FA years?
Keith Law: Yes, why not? He’s good, and those contracts have value if the player stays healthy.

Nat: Heading to Philly tomorrow for Cubs v Phils. Any recommendations for beer and/or BBQ in the area? Don’t want to spend an arm and a leg at the park.
Keith Law: There’s nothing right in that area – the sports complex is south of the city, accessible via subway, but there isn’t anything good nearby. I haven’t been but Village Whiskey in center city gets raves and might fit what you’re looking for.

HH: What, other than pesto, can I use basil for? I’m drowning in it this summer.
Keith Law: Caprese salad. Chiffonade it and toss it into salads. Throw some leaves on pizza if you make your own. Pesto freezes well too, although some sources suggest you make it without nuts before freezing.
Keith Law: Apparently it makes good ice cream too. I haven’t gone there yet.

Chad: It seems like the Padres are confident that Mejia can stick at C – supposedly his receiving has improved. With a lineup of Tatis, Urias, Mejia, Myers, Renfroe, and whoever else sticks, is it really that improbable that the Padres have an elite offense as early as next year?
Keith Law: Renfroe isn’t part of an elite offense, not with a career-best .309 OBP this year (and dropping). Myers hasn’t been consistently good enough for that either. And they’re going to play that replacement-level first baseman for whom two years and $20 million would have been an overpay. So it’s not terribly likely just yet.

Josh in DC: What are your feelings about expanded September rosters? As a fan, I hate them (too many pitching changes, for example). What’s your opinion?
Keith Law: I hate that part. I don’t hate seeing young guys get some service time, and exposure to the big league environment and coaching staff. I don’t hate seeing teams have more pitchers in total to spread out workloads. But having, say, only X pitchers available per game would go a long way towards keeping September games from running four hours and September box scores look like Russian novels.

Mac: Do you think Nick Solak will get serious consideration for your top 100 list? I get the draw backs. He’s not physical and doesn’t have tools that jump out at you but he does have an innate feel and approach to hitting that lets him play above his tools. He’s very much like Paul DeJong in that way. I think he’s going to be very good hitter for a long time.
Keith Law: No, definitely not a top 100 guy.

Pramit: If you were working in a front office for a team and the President/GM and/or owner didn’t want to call up a top prospect for service time reasons, what argument would you make in favor of calling up the player? How would you present it?
Keith Law: That he needs the development time in the majors. Vlad Jr is not progressing as a hitter in AAA right now (or as a fielder, but that’s another story). If you want him to get better, you promote him.

DanB Greenwich: hey Klaw…brWAR has Nola at 8.9 and DeGrom at 8.2. fWAR has DeGrom at 7.3 and Nola at 5.7. What causes that kind of discrepancy?
Keith Law: They don’t calculate pitcher WAR the same way. Fangraphs’ version relies on the pitchers’ peripherals and assumes league-average BABIP. Baseball-Reference’s version relies on actual runs allowed.

Andrew: My wifeis a big fan of Takenoko, Catan, and Lanterns, but tends to get turned off by overly complicated/complex games. Would you recommend Everdell for her?
Keith Law: This would be a half-step upgrade in complexity – but it doesn’t feel or play complex. It’s really a masterful design. And the components are stunning.

Jo-Nathan: Stetson Allie is sooo close to being a major leaguer and you just have to feel good for the guy; However there is no way this happens living off $1,100 a month over the past 8 years unless you have something like a $2.25 million bonus to supplement your income. What is the solution here, unionize?
Keith Law: I don’t think they can unionize, can they? If the MLBPA found a way to include them, that would be the best solution. Also, maybe more people should have called their Representatives over the rider MLB had the recipients of campaign contributions slip into the GOP tax bill.

Jim: Mark Vientos looks like one of the most exciting pieces in the Mets system. Do you think he can be an impact player at the big league level, or is it too soon to tell?
Keith Law: I do – I’m a buyer. I forgot to mention him earlier. Kelenic has looked so good early that he’s overshadowed Vientos through no fault of the latter.

Andrew: Hey Keith. I’m considering getting my MBA, and had Tepper on my short list of schools. How was your experience there? I’m looking at things from a challenge/knowledge standpoint rather than networking, for the most part.
Keith Law: I enjoyed my two years there and learned a lot. It’s a very quantitative program, which was unusual then and probably much more relevant today to more jobs. I will say Pittsburgh in the winter is the grayest place I’ve ever spent any time.

Wes: Is Austin Meadows’ performance in Durham anything other than SSS noise?
Keith Law: It is a SSS. 27 games, I believe.

Donald: If you worked in the Astros front office, how would you have handled the Osuna trade?
Keith Law: I would have opposed it, and if they’d made it anyway, I would have found another job.

Kevin w : Why are people so resistant to science? It’s what literally makes everybody’s life better/easier
Keith Law: Much of science denial is tied to a strain of religiosity that holds that what is written in holy texts is literally or at least primarily true, and thus adherents feel that science, by proving some of these beliefs to be false (like creationism), undermines religion. Of course, there are many people on both sides of the religion/science divide who argue that the conflict is not real or essential – that you can be a person of faith and still believe in science. Math is the fundamental language of the universe; you may simply choose to believe that a higher power created math.

Dylan Garner: Is Kolby Allard’s future in the MLB solely tied to him adding velocity/quality to his fastball? It seems impossible for him to succeed against major league hitters with 89-90 as his main pitch.
Keith Law: Not impossible, just an added challenge. His CB can be plus or better. He just has to get to it.

John: A few years ago, we couldn’t quantify much that catchers do defensively. Now there are data on framing. But it seems like there’s some other quality that goes to the relationship with the pitchers, which is very hard for statistics to capture. Is that accurate, or is that characteristic akin to clubhouse chemistry?
Keith Law: I think that we have a decent idea of the value of framing but not as strong an idea about where that value is generated or how sustainable changes in framing value or skill are. I’m loath to consider it too heavily in matters like awards voting or especially the Hall of Fame.

Kevin: If you could only watch one decade of baseball, as a fan what would you choose?
Keith Law: This one. Game’s never been better, folks.
Keith Law: Thank you all for reading this week and for all of your questions – I’m sorry I didn’t get to more but for whatever reason I’m a little slow on the draw today. I should be back again next week for another chat and will try to keep to a regular chat schedule through the rest of the regular season. Have a great Labor Day weekend, to those of you here in the U.S., and please be safe on the roads. Labor Day and Memorial Day are the two most dangerous weekends of the year on American roadways. If you’ve had even a little too much to drink, don’t get behind the wheel. I’d rather have you get home later, but safe, and here for the next Klawchat.

My Insider/ESPN+ post on Wander Franco, Luis Medina, and other prospects is now up.

Keith Law: Tell my friends to call me; I ain’t accepting no letters. Klawchat.

tony: is it starting to become the time for the yanks to give up on greg bird for 2019? he’s been very bad. Bryce has been taking grounders at 1b…
Keith Law: I’ve never bought Bird as a 1b. I think he has value as a DH, low average with walks and power. Harper at 1b wastes his athleticism.

PhillyJake: Trevor Williams of the Pirates has a 3.44 ERA and a 4.33 FIP. Yet, with the Pirates being a notoriously bad fielding team, wouldn’t one expect the numbers to be reversed, in which the fielding would hurt his ERA and his FIP would be lower?
Keith Law: Not necessarily – one pitcher may happen to have good fortune or results with a bad defense. It usually evens out in larger samples but not always.

Michael: Is baseball in a better place than it was 10 years ago? 20 years ago? 50 years ago?
Keith Law: Way better place. It still has problems, and faces some ongoing challenges, but the sport as a whole is healthier than it’s ever been.

J.P.: Would Wander Franco be considered a top 25 prospect in all of baseball right now, or is that being too generous?
Keith Law: He was already top 20 in my midseason update.

Tom: Hi Keith – have you ever posted anything on Twitter (either a tweet you fired off quickly or a response to someone on there) that you regretted? I am not asking this with anything in mind by the way. I am legitimately curious.
Keith Law: Yep, absolutely. I’ve deleted some stuff right away. I’ve had a few tweets for which I later apologized, but often left up as a record of my mistake. There’s one in particular that still bothers me, even though I deleted it within 15 minutes. It was thoughtless, literally – I did not think about how it might upset someone specific that I know who had just been through a tragedy. I took it down.

Depressed Mets Fan: Could Pete get the call from Vegas next month? I need someone to get me excited again, and he could be the guy.
Keith Law: Alonso’s a solid prospect, but Mets fans who keep trying to insert him into the “call this guy up, dammit” conversation around Vlad Jr and Eloy are probably setting themselves up for disappointment.

Frank: Would you consider the Rays a top 5 system right now?
Keith Law: No, but I also won’t spend much time parsing systems until the winter.

Eric: Will we ever see a short season/rookie ball guy get awarded Milb POY in the experts’ eyes? Obviously someone like Franco would have a case in a year in which Vladdy Jr had graduated.
Keith Law: You’d be basing it on something like 50 games. That’s hard to support.

Frank: I’m guessing your review of Luis Medina will be less than favorable. Future RP?
Keith Law: Dude’s walking 11 per 9. Real hard to look at that and say “starter.”

ROY Speculator: Acuna or Soto?
Keith Law: Yes, definitely one of those two.

Nate: Late 2019 a realistic ETA on Pache? Assuming at that time he’s in CF and Acuna in a corner
Keith Law: Yep, that’s fair. Glove is ready now. Bat has come along quite well of late.

Ron: ETA of Lewis and Kiriloff to majors? Late 2019 or is that moving too fast? Thanks!
Keith Law: I’d put Lewis a year behind that. They’re separated by a year, and Lewis has more work to do on defense – if he stays at short at all – than Kirilloff, who is clearly a corner OF.

Ben: Is this the most impressive the Appy League as a whole has been, in your memory?
Keith Law: Two scouts told me they felt the league was weak this year. I only saw that one game.

D: Highly recommend the book American War by Omar El-Akkad. No question, just that rec.
Keith Law: Oof, cli-fi. That’s tough sledding for me. I’ll put it on my list, though.

addoeh: Has there ever been a more successful “witch hunt” than Mueller’s? Lots of folks in the President’s world that are made of wood and weigh the same as a duck.
Keith Law: Cohen even turned Gingrich into a newt. And he hasn’t gotten better.

Nate: The White Sox have had a brutal season with prospect injuries. Would you say they are still a top 5 system?
Keith Law: See above. I don’t like giving flash opinions like that when the question requires more thorough study.

Dave: It looks like the Mariners are good but not good enough. Also old with a bad farm system. How do they approach yet another rebuild?
Keith Law: My guess is they go for it again this winter, but I have no idea what their plan is. A rebuild there is going to take a long time, and they could be Houston-bad for several years.

Eric: How surprised are you that guys like Touki, Allard and Wilson got the call ahead of a more seasoned guy like Wright? Scratching my head at that one. Please enlighten me.
Keith Law: Wilson is the one that surprised me, because he was farthest away from 40-man status of any of those four.

Jeff: Keith – In the past, you’ve stated that Dodgers manager Dave Roberts (and I assume by extension his staff) have not done a good job of developing young pitching. Does the success of Walker Buehler change that analysis at all? PS: Sorry for the re-post
Keith Law: That’s one guy, with elite stuff, so no, it doesn’t. Losing Josh Bard helped them, though.

Brian: How does Jordan Hicks – who routinely throws 102, 103 – have “only” 7.7 K/9? Is it lack of command with his secondary pitches (so guys sit on his fastball)? Lack of deception or movement? Something else? And related: do you think he CAN be a lights-out closer in the future?
Keith Law: It’s pretty straight and hitters do tend to pick it up enough to sit on it. He’s really athletic and I think still has plenty of room for growth in command and feel for using his offspeed.

Tim: Vidal Brujan went 3-3, 2 BB, 2 HRs, 4 R, 5 RBIs and 3 SB yesterday. Incredible game aside, what kind of prospect is the kid?
Keith Law: Above-average regular. Power may not be part of his game, but he can really hit and has legit OBP skills.

Dan: What did you think of Kopech’s cameo? (We can’t call it an outing, unfortunately. Damn you, Mother Nature.)
Keith Law: Stuff looked great. Way too fastball-heavy.

Rob: How will it eventually shake out for the Rays between Franco, Adames, Fox, and Brujan
Keith Law: Adames is two solid years ahead of the rest of them. In the unlikely event that all four guys work out as we hope, they’ll figure it out, but the odds are that someone will fall off along the way due to injury or non-development. Of that group, Fox has the furthest to go, and I feel best about Franco, obviously.

Lee D: Turns out Trump didn’t even need to go to Moscow to collude with someone to influence the 2016 election. Will the Cohen confirmation of this collusion move the bar on the mid-terms, or are voters too entrenched in their camps?
Keith Law: I have seen very little indication that any Trump voters are the least bit affected by this news. The hope for those of us who want him out or at least stopped is that enough undecided or third-party voters show up in November to tip Congress blue.

Bobby: Not sure if you have watched him recently but do you think the Severino struggles are just a small sample size blip or is there perhaps an underlying cause (mechanical or physical)?
Keith Law: Fastball and slider have looked very flat on TV, for whatever that’s worth. It’s always possible that he’s hurt, but it’s also been 6-7 starts and he hasn’t said anything.

Bob: Issac Paredes is having a productive late season debut in AA at age 19. Do you think he has a chance to be a 3-4 WAR player at either 2B or 3B? If not, what’s keeping him from having that kid of upside?
Keith Law: That’s probably about right. I don’t think there’s much growth left there – he’s advanced for his age, but physically doesn’t have much projection.

Nate: Looks like Waters is starting to heat up after slow start following promotion (I know, I know, MiLB stats don’t matter). Is he a potential Top 100 guy in next year or so?
Keith Law: I think consensus within the industry is that he is.

Mac: It’s really disingenuous when you say GMO’s haven’t been proven to be harmful in any way, in fact, you sound more like a lawyer. The science is far from settled. Do you ignore the unethical history of Monsanto, or the fact that dozens of countries (including France, Italy, Russia, Mexico, and Australia to name a few) have full or partial bans on GMO’s?
Keith Law: It’s not “disingenuous;” it is accurate. They haven’t been proven to be harmful in any way, and the science is, at least, way more settled than you imply. Monsanto’s ethics do not affect GMO safety. Bans in other countries do not affect or reflect GMO safety. The U.S. banned absinthe for a century on bogus ‘evidence’ of its effects. We also still ban sodium cyclamate, an artificial sweetener that has the benefit of being heat-stable, despite a lack of evidence of toxicity or carcinogenicity. Meanwhile, there is still zero research showing GM foods are harmful; your body has no idea whether that C12H22O11 you just stirred into your coffee came from GM sugar cane or non-GM.

Bob: What’s keeping Colton Walker from being a top 100 prospect and projecting as an above average regular?
Keith Law: Questionable defense, and questions whether his bat will play outside of extreme hitter’s parks. All three teams for which he’s played play in very hitter-friendly environments.

dan: I apologize if you’ve answered this before (or wrote on it); have you read any CS Lewis?
Keith Law: I read the Lion, the Witch Hunt, and … no, wait, that’s not it. You know the one I mean. I read it maybe ten years ago and was bored by it.

KS: I know it’s early, but any reports on how Bohm looks?
Keith Law: I had unflattering reports from pro scouts who got their first looks at him in pro ball.

Jeffrey: Regarding a question from a few weeks ago: eliminate the Confederate flag, and the wedding you attend has the groom and groomsmen equipped with sidearms. Do you still walk out?
Keith Law: Hell yeah.

Oscar: Any info on the 2019 J2 class yet?
Keith Law: I don’t track or cover that.

Ron Dog: Will you be using the term “front hole” instead of vagina?
Keith Law: This was such a dumb non-troversy, pushed by the same dumb white nationalist sites. That term showed up in a sexual health manual that was aimed, in part, at trans women. The group that published it even clarified that they weren’t changing terminology or eschewing the use of the word ‘vagina,’ but why bother with facts when you want to own the libs?

Mike: Two things about your pizza list last week. 1) you should give Vecchias in Phoenixville a try if your up that way. 2) in the comments you mentioned not being a big fan of Pepe’s style. That’s the great pizza I grew up with. I’m curious, what would you call that style?
Keith Law: That’s New Haven style. It’s fine – I don’t dislike it – but it’s not my favorite.

Dmitry: Love your stick to baseball links! Would trading Andujar to Braves for pitching and signing Manny be possible for the Yanks?
Keith Law: Sure, it’s possible. At this point I’m not sure what pitching would be available and of interest to them.

Mike: Who has a better chance to overachieve and become an above average 2B – Shed Long or Kevin Kramer?
Keith Law: Kramer has the better chance. Long is maybe a 40 defender at second.

Brett: I know he is 25 and not really a prospect per se, but could Joshua Jackson have any success in the majors?
Keith Law: Trenton guy? I don’t think so.

Brandon Warne: As best as you can recall, who is the prospect who most exceeded your expectations while you’ve been doing this?
Keith Law: Altuve, probably. I did have him on a midseason top 50, but he’s a good example of someone even his own team underestimated. And how could you not? He’s a unicorn. A very little unicorn.

Dr. Bob: Wil Myers got hit in the face by a ground ball at 3b. Can someone remind me again why the Padres just had to sign him?
Keith Law: Or had to sign Hosmer to force Myers off first.

John: What deranged sociopath decided to “double stuff” the Oreo, a cookie that had known perfection since 1912? This is the abomination that should unify our opposition, as members of Planet Earth
Keith Law: I completely agree. The ratio of the original was perfect.

AJ: Hey Keith, flu shots for kids under 1 year old? Good or bad idea?
Keith Law: Minimum recommended age is 6 months.

John: What have your thoughts been on Mike Shildt so far?
Keith Law: I’ve said this in a few spots, but his best attribute is being not Mike Matheny. It seems like some of the younger guys who didn’t fare well under Matheny are faring better under Shildt. That could be noise, but given Matheny’s weird dislike of Kolten Wong, my gut says it’s signal.

Brandon Warne: Would you rather have Tyler Austin or Greg Bird going forward?
Keith Law: Bird. I have a soft spot for Austin but he’s never gotten all the way back after that lost year-plus with wrist injuries.

Brian: Heard on radio that Padres FO sees Urias as a Marco Scutaro comparison. Any thoughts?
Keith Law: He’s better than that.

Scott: You are higher than Bryse Wilson than most. What do you see him as a few years from now?
Keith Law: #3 starter with a chance to be a #2.

JR: Keith Law, Circa 2017 – writes Smart Baseball. Keith Law, Circa 2019, starts touting Wins, RBIs and Saves. Everyone wonders what happens. ESPN releases following statement: “We learned Keith Law has sometimes had significant memory issues in other situations where he had prior extensive knowledge of events. He has also periodically taken medicine that can negatively impair his memory, concentration & focus”
Keith Law: This is true, assuming rum counts as a medication.

Josh: Hey Keith, wondering if I could get your thoughts on Keegan Akin. His control has been a slight issue but he’s been killing it for Bowie all year. Is #3 starter a reasonable ceiling projection for him?
Keith Law: I’d take the under on that. I’ve never seen him throw with the velocity he supposedly can have.

Tim: Who is better in 5 years…Dom Smith or Peter Alonzo? How good are they?
Keith Law: I think Smith is the better hitter and way better 1b. Both are regulars.

Mike: Keith that change up kopech threw…if that’s what it is wow. I guess I don’t have a question but let’s just acknowledge how filthy that was. Thanks!
Keith Law: His secondary stuff is legit. He needs to throw it more.

John: What is Nolan Gormans ceiling?
Keith Law: Impact middle of the order bat. More power than OBP/contact skills.

John: How would you rank the young arms up with the Cardinals now? (Flaherty, Weaver, Gant, Gomber, Ponce De Leon, Hudson)
Keith Law: Flaherty is a full grade above any of the others. He’s the only surefire starter in the group.

RSO: Where would Victor Victor Mesa land in the prospect rankings once he signed with a major league team?
Keith Law: If that’s a top 100 question, the answer is probably not on it. I’ve heard elite defender, questions on the bat.

Frank: Now that 2018 playoffs appear out of reach, what do you think of Davey Martinez going forward? He appears to be in over his head, yet his players seem to like him. Is he a just a good bench coach that got hired for the wrong role? Or do you see him eventually becoming a good manager?
Keith Law: I think he might be in over his head, but I can’t blame their season on him. Too many injuries and underperformances to pin on the manager.

AJ: How would you handle the Touki, Bryse Wilson, Gohara, Fried group of pitchers when the Triple A season ends?
Keith Law: With all four on the 40-man, I’d have them all up in September even just for long relief work, maybe setting up some tandem starters. Good for development and for Anthopoulos et al to get some in-person looks to determine if all are part of the team’s future.

Juan : Do you think Cease will stick as a SP long term?
Keith Law: Yes, health permitting, I think he’s a definite starter.

Dave: K-Law, you’ve never steered me wrong on food recommendations. Any updates on where to eat in Charleston and/or Savannah? Husk is a given.
Keith Law: I have a long list of places in Charleston I want to hit, but haven’t been there in years.

Dr. Bob: Harrison Bader is leading NL rookies in WAR, mostly from defense. Didn’t have the splash of Acuna or Soto. ROY candidate?
Keith Law: No, because (I think I may have said this before) WAR can be misleading with players who are platooned, and don’t get as many AB against their weak side. I wouldn’t vote for Bader on the basis of AB he didn’t get over guys like Soto or Acuna who played every day.

Andrew: Is McNeil looking like a real option to be an above average 2nd baseman? Was his lack of profile in the minors more an injury issue than a talent issue? Seems to be a legit bat.
Keith Law: Tiny sample size.

Mike: I’m a diehard Cubs fan but also not a garbage human so the trade for an unrepentant homophobe like Murphy gives me an ick-factor when rooting for my team. It’s not quite as gross as Chapman in 2016 but it’s still not good. I tend to think of Theo as far more progressive than a lot of baseball people but I guess not. Are there any teams who would actually not sign/trade for an guy who will help on the field but is backwards off of it?
Keith Law: Yes, there are several such teams, but they don’t talk about it. I had multiple GMs reach out to me before the draft to say they had taken Heimlich off their boards, but they didn’t want it publicized. I don’t blame them – better to do it than to talk about it. You don’t need publicity for doing the right thing.

dan: Out of Hudson, Gant, Gomber, Poncedeleon, Weaver; who has a legit chance to be above-average starters/
Keith Law: None of them, to me. All back-end guys or relievers.

1986 Eric Davis: If the Astros were to call up Forrest Whitley, do you think he could be a dominant bullpen piece, and would he be eligible for the postseason?
Keith Law: Yes, and apparently yes on the latter, which i had wrong earlier this season.

B Mand: If I remember correctly, you always believed Bogaerts had more power than he showed his first couple years in the majors. Is this type of season what you expected? 20-25 HRs and lots of doubles.
Keith Law: If you’d asked me while he was in A-ball I would have said 30 homers, so I guess not quite, but I’ll take it.

John: Corey Ray seems to have had a great season- has his stock risen?
Keith Law: I loved Ray in the draft, but he has not had a great season, not with a .330 OBP and near 30% strikeout rate. I’ve heard from scouts that he’s selling out to hit for more power, which is fine on its own, but can’t come at the expense of getting on base.

Tim: Has Amed Rosario disappointed you thus far/about righted you thus far/exceed your expectations thus far?
Keith Law: Disappointed, but not every prospect performs right away in the majors, and it’s not like the Mets are developing guys left and right on the big league club. (Still very bullish on their farm, though.)

BE: Odds that Kelenic ends up being the best player in this draft class ?
Keith Law: Nonzero. Maybe 10-15%? He’s pretty fucking good.

Larry: Nick Madrigal is slugging .325 thru 133 PA’s. Please talk me off the edge!
Keith Law: Did I answer this last week? I have nothing to tell you on this. I don’t think he’s going to have any power. He’s only slightly bigger than I am, and didn’t drive the ball much in college. He can really hit, and he’s a definite big leaguer, but there’s not going to be power there.

JR: I generally agree with you on most items (baseball and non-baseball). Therefore, when you tweet something I can usually predict what type of results you will get – mostly supportive with a decent mix of morons. However, I was blown away by all the negative replies you received from your tweet on minor leaguers deserving fair pay. Was extremely shocked at all the replies defending the current system.
Keith Law: The people who think minor leaguers are just “playing a game,” rather than working full-time hours for less than full-time pay, are totally out to lunch.

Kevin: Matt Manning is throwing the ball pretty well in Lakeland. Is he ready to start next season in AA?
Keith Law: Not really throwing that well. I believe he’ll start in AA and have trouble with both walks and homers.

Chuck: Any Tigers position player in the farm right now have a chance to be a legitimate star? Paredes? Meadows?
Keith Law: Probably not, but I could see 5-6 guys who look like potential 50s or 55s. Cameron is one. I really like Castro, whom they just got from Cleveland.

Jack: How big is the gap really between someone like Bo Bichette and someone like Gavin Lux?
Keith Law: Very big. And I like Lux.

Trevor: What’s the correct dose of colloidal silver to recover from CIA nanites? Asking for a friend.
Keith Law: Hang on, that was cutting edge last week, but medicine moves faster than that, my man.

Matt: What is wrong with Dylan Bundy?
Keith Law: He’s been overworked the last two years and it shows up in the results. His old fastball is gone, and he’s homer-prone as a result. I know O’s fans were mad I was pessimistic about him when he came back from elbow and shoulder surgeries, but we all had plenty of reason to doubt his durability. Had he been used more carefully, or switched to a relief role, maybe the situation would be different today.

Jackson: Would you rather have penne vodka or penne bologonese ?
Keith Law: Penne alla vodka.

John: I know you recently did a piece on Adam Haseley, but can you give me your biggest positive from watching him and your biggest negative?
Keith Law: I have no positive to report from that look. The negatives are in the piece.

Jerry: Historically, if the economy is strong, incumbents win. No matter how corrupt our leaders are, they don’t get voted out unless people feel it in their bank accounts.
Keith Law: Absolutely correct. But many people are feeling it in the wallet. The top end isn’t, but people at the lower end of the economy aren’t seeing wage gains to keep up with the cost of living, and some are losing their jobs as companies continue to automate or outsource.

Ben: Does Salt Lake City have a reputation as an extreme hitter’s park? I’ve always been curious. I know we’re not Denver high, but still well over 4000′.
Keith Law: Yes, it does.

Pops: Would Alex Verdugo help the struggling Dodgers offense?
Keith Law: He could. Not sure where he’d fit, but in the abstract I think his bat would help. Or he could pitch the 7th.

Pete: Rosario has been heating up lately. What do you think his line looks like next year, assuming you’re still buying on him
Keith Law: Sorry, if I didn’t answer that above, I’m still buying.

Chuck: What level does Mize start with next year? Does it make it to big club? Even worth it considering Tigers are a ways away still?
Keith Law: I would start him in AA. He’s going to obliterate A-ball hitters. Challenge him.

Chris: Kelenic and Woods-Richardson look solid in their first year. Very early but as a Mets fan I’m intrigued and happy with their recent drafts.
Keith Law: I’ve heard W-R is throwing harder and with a better CH than he had pre-draft. Very promising. Tramuta and company have done a very good job the last few years. (Full disclosure: I worked with Tramuta in Toronto for several years.)

CJ: How do you view Kapler’s rookie season as manager? The results are thus far exceeding expectations (recent skid notwithstanding), but there seem to be lots of questions about his approach.
Keith Law: What questions are there? I haven’t heard those or noticed any myself. I’ve only seen and heard good things.

Donald T: Keith Law…will you be my lawyer?
Keith Law: Yes, but could you please talk more directly into this pen?

Adam: I asked you a question on Twitter, and three days later there are still people in my mentions arguing about racism and anti-vaxxers. Send help.
Keith Law: That one anti-vaxxer dude seemed like the lunatic fringe ousted him for being “a bit much.”

Andy: Thoughts on Grant Lavigne? Tearing up the Pioneer League and showing plus plate discipline
Keith Law: Grand Junction is 4600 feet above sea level. Everyone seems to hit there. We’ll get more of a sense next year – even though Asheville is a good hitter’s park, the league as a whole is less hitter-friendly.

Harry: FWIW I thought the jab at Daniel Murphy the other day was a little outdated. He met with Billy Bean, and walked back his previous statements.
Keith Law: He didn’t walk them back, though. If he had, I wouldn’t have brought it up. He never retracted or corrected what he said. And his comments would make the clubhouse a hostile work environment for a gay player.

Chris: If anyone was ever doubting that big-college athletics isn’t about generating a lot of money and protecting sources of income at all costs, look no further than the charade that is THE Ohio State University suspension of Urban Meyer.
Keith Law: What a joke. I would love to see OSU students do something about this – stop going to games? – but it’s not going to matter as long as the TV checks roll in.

John: What is Vlad Jr’s recourse, or any other MiLB player who is kept in the minors an unfair amount of time?
Keith Law: A grievance. I do hope he files one.
Keith Law: We need a test case.

Luke: I’ve tried to rewrite this thee times so it doesn’t sound like I’m being a jerk, but I can’t make it work, so apologies if the tone sounds harsh, but are you able to turn off the scouting an analytical part of your mind and watch a game for fun or are you constantly picking up on mechanical flaws or the like when you watch a game?
Keith Law: It’s work. I can’t be at a game and not be working.

Dave: If you had to do it all over again, wouldn’t your analysis of Sale as a prospect be the exact same? If there are 100 prospects with his build and delivery, isn’t the odds that 90+ of them will flame out or never make it into a rotation?
Keith Law: Yes. Post-Sale prospects who’ve reminded me of him have all ended up in relief or gotten hurt. He’s the big exception – never really hurt till this year, and went from a 40 slider to arguably a 70 after signing.
Keith Law: Goldschmidt is a better example of a guy who changed how I think. One, I just try to see guys like him, rather than relying so much on others’ opinions, because he’s not someone who fares well on a traditional scouting report unless you goose the hit tool grade. Two, I’m looking for guys with that sort of swing and skill set now. That’s why I was more bullish on Rhys Hoskins as a prospect than I might have been given his age & pedigree.

Jackson: Ever tempted to place sports bets ?
Keith Law: No. I like my money.

Joe: Can you share your opinions on the new Insider/ESPN+ package and how/if it effects what you do?
Keith Law: I think it’s good news for me, and for readers. You get more stuff for the same price. I get more readers, but am still behind the subscriber wall, which has various benefits for me. It will not change the content I provide for you.

Chris: If you were the future Mets GM would you be tempted in the offseason to trade all of deGrom (3-4 top guys), Thor (2-3 top guys) and Wheeler (1-2 top guys) for the combined 8 or so top prospects and associated depth you should get back in total? Could yield a faster rebuild of say 1-2 years versus a full 3-4 year cycle teardown ala Astros, Reds, Tigers, etc.
Keith Law: Yep. Trade them all. Keep only the youngest guys – Conforto, Rosario, Smith, etc.

Pramit: I’ve seen that Baseball America and Jim Bowden ranked the Blue Jays system as top 3 systems in the league. Other than Vlad and Bo, are there any other impact prospects that are close? Alford has taken a step back, Reid-Foley could be a reliever and the jury is still out on Biggio. I wonder if Vlad being in the system is making the overall org appear deeper than it is.
Keith Law: I said in a recent chat that I do not find that ranking credible. I still don’t. It is not a top 3 system. BA is generally very good, and this is part of what they do; I just strongly disagree on what I would consider objective grounds. The other guy doesn’t cover prospects at all.

Melting Icebergs: Keith, there are an equal number of scientist that believe global warming is NOT man made and simply cyclical. Why are they wrong and the scientist you believe in right?
Keith Law: No there aren’t.

Scott B.: With 21 yr old Devers at 3rd, do the Sox eventually move Dalbec or Chablis to 1st?
Keith Law: Dalbec has made himself pretty good over there at third; I wouldn’t rush to move him yet. Chablis’ glove is pretty flinty.

Brandon Warne: Would you listen to a podcast that combines murder and comedy?
Keith Law: That depends on who’s getting murdered.

Evan: Alex Scherff is working his way back from an intercoastal injury. He looked pretty good before going on the DL. Does he stick as a starter and is he anything more than just a guy?
Keith Law: Starter. High risk with upside.

Jonathon: Thoughts on josh naylor
Keith Law: Can certainly hit and has big time power. Not sold on LF.

Rob: Hey Keith, I think I remember a while back you saying that you weren’t a fan of Deafheaven’s recent stuff. Did you give their newest a listen? Thanks.
Keith Law: One song. Started it a month ago and it’s still playing.

Tim: Remember when Gabe Kapler was about to be fired? Good times.
Keith Law: Yep. There are some Philly sports flacks who just blue themselves that first week.

Dan: Hi Keith, do you think the literature canon (Great Books) is still relative today, especially for younger readers? Shakespeare, Milton, dead white males…
Keith Law: I do, but I wouldn’t recommend any students read just those authors. That literature influenced writers for centuries after, and still influences writers today, so I think they remain essential. And prior to 1800 there ain’t much besides dead white males.

Andy: Any thoughts on speaking to your kids about the President. I hear so many parents say awful things about him in front of their kids. While likely deserved, I was raised to treat people with respect regardless and feel it’s a poor example to set.
Keith Law: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Kenny Kirkpatrick: Hudson Potts has had a monster year in High-A. He’s now in AA at age 19 and seems to get better each month. Is he the Padres 3rd baseman of the future?
Keith Law: I would say there’s a good chance of that, depending on his glove first and his OBP skills second. Still very young and improving quickly. Maybe 40% chance he’s the 3b of the future.

Newt: Does your abstention from red meat include bacon, glorious bacon?
Keith Law: I’m not abstaining from read meat – I just don’t eat beef any more, and haven’t eaten lamb in ages because I found I really didn’t like it.

Craig : Hey Keith , Thanks for the Chat . Do you think Vlad’s future is at 1B in regards to his body type , if so what grade defensively would you give him there
Keith Law: I think he’s a future DH. When I was on TSN1050 a week or so ago, I said he could be David Ortiz. I think any Blue Jays fan would take that.

Kenny Kirkpatrick: Andres Munoz is throwing triple digit heaters in AA at age 19. How good can he actually be?
Keith Law: Pure reliever but I’ve seen it and it’s very real. One-inning guy in any role. Different from Patino, who has a chance to start even though he’s not much bigger than Munoz.

Jason: Prominent BP scout clocked Andres Gimenez 3.8 to first yesterday? Have you heard about this big speed jump? What do you make of him in general?
Keith Law: Bad reading or jailbreak.

JD: Fleet’s Landing in Charleston was and is a treat.
Keith Law: Good to know.

Chris: Mickey Callaway has been bad. I thought his saving graces would be bullpen mgmt and talent development but his handling of both (forgetting to double-switch, batting BP pitchers, Dom Smith) have been outright awful.
Keith Law: Yeah, I haven’t been impressed in year one. Didn’t have managerial experience, right?

Danny: Any chance you heard what’s keeping Everson Peirera from playing in Pulaski?
Keith Law: I was told he’s hurt, but not with what. Seigler is also out due to a concussion.

Kenny Kirkpatrick: What do you think of Buddy Reed? He had a big year in High-A after making some adjustments to his swing this past offseason. He’s struggled so far in his limited playing time in AA.
Keith Law: Swing has improved a little, mostly in terms of using his lower half. Still not buying the bat completely, but with his range in CF he doesn’t have to hit a ton to have some value.

Dr. Bob: RE: Bader. That’s why we come to you. Makes sense. He’s started against 70 RH starters but 34 LH starters. Since I don’t think LH starters make up a third of the league, that is a quasi-platoon.
Keith Law: Last I looked he had a disproportionate % of his PA against lefties, and was killing them (as he should). But while sitting him vs tough RHB may be a good developmental move (or not … I’m saying hypothetically), it shouldn’t count to his credit in awards voting.

Terry (Wash, DC): Are you still a MoviePass subscriber? You haven’t posted many movie reviews lately, and I wondered what you’ve been watching.
Keith Law: I cancelled my subscription when they changed the rules. But there’s also just one movie out I really want to see, Black Klansman. The others are things I could see but could easily wait to stream.

Pat: Another arm injury for Hunter Harvey. Is he just a cross off at this point?
Keith Law: Yeah, just check back in when he’s healthy for a stretch. It sucks.

Evan: Just curious what bag you use to carry all your scouting stuff? It would be neat to see a “whats in Keith’s bag” sorta post.
Keith Law: It’s a camera bag from CaseLogic. Radar gun fits well in it, and I have room for other stuff I might need at a game or on the plane.

APK: Justin Dunn and Franklyn Kilome’s numbers have been really promising at Binghamton so far. Do you see either of them turning into above average major Leaguers?
Keith Law: Dunn yes. Kilome less so.

David: As a fan, would you be more excited to see an 11-10 game or a 1-0 pitchers dual?
Keith Law: The pitcher’s duel. Not even close.

SC: Have to disagree about trading all of the Mets starters. How do you trade deGrom when he’s having an unreal season? Figure he’s at peak value? I’d keep him and Wheeler and entertain offers for Thor. Have to set some sort of middle ground. Also have to see what you’ve got in the system and who can fill needs from other teams
Keith Law: He is at peak value. And his value declines as he approaches free agency.

Steve: Better Naylor long term, Josh or Bo?
Keith Law: I’m all in on Bo. Loved him in the draft, thought he was a top 15 talent, and if he can’t catch – he’s catching now in the AZL, where he’s raking – he’ll be good at third base.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thanks so much for reading and for all of your questions. I’ll be back next week for another round. Enjoy your weekends!

My wrap-up of all the games I saw at Gen Con earlier this month is now up over at Paste. For Insiders, I wrote up how Shane Baz affects the Archer trade balance, plus notes on Adam Haseley, Nolan Jones, and a few pitchers from the Phillies, Rockies, and Cleveland systems.

Also, I’m co-hosting another family board game night at the Brandywine Hundred Library in Wilmington on Friday night, August 17th, starting at 5:30 pm. You can bring your own games or just bring yourselves, as last time there were probably two dozen games there between the library’s collection and games others brought. All ages are welcome and there will be kids there.

Keith Law: Damn the dark, damn the light. Klawchat.

Gerald: Do you like prospects? Baseball prospects to be clear.
Keith Law: No. Hate ’em.

Ryan: do you see the braves trading any prospects this winter for a veteran? if so whose most likely to go?
Keith Law: I think they’ll do what they just did for Duvall – trade from the surplus, the edges of the system, not the core prospects. You keep the Toukis and the Goharas and the Sorokas (if healthy), but trade the Sims.

addoeh: Which is better; to have more hits than Sadaharu Oh or mad hits like Rod Carew?
Keith Law: Neither. Better to be clutch like Piazza.

Kevin: How would you currently rank the White Sox farm system? Have the injuries impacted their overall ranking? It seems they have been hurt more than prior years.
Keith Law: Tough year for them, still near the top in terms of high-upside talent, only graduated one major guy (I think?) from my list.

JG: Nick Gordon has had a down season thus far in AAA. Is there cause for concern or needs more time?
Keith Law: He’s 22 and hit everywhere else. I don’t think he’s a star but I believe I’ve been consistent the last few years in saying he’s a regular, and someone who’ll play above his tools because of his feel for the game.

Sean: Have you had a chance to review the international signing rule changes? I have not had a chance to do a deep dive into the new international signing rules. It appears though that these rules just really acknowledge the fact that the majority of those players sign prior to their J2 date. From my point of view nothing is really about to change, do you see the same thing?
Keith Law: Yes, that was my quick take too. Formalizing some of that process can create more transparency, and I think it will help players too, since teams could always try to back out of oral agreements. The rules allowing teams to help players travel for workouts are more important, because there are still players in Venezuela, but going there to scout them is too dangerous.

Brian: Is there a major league future for Mickey Moniak?
Keith Law: I don’t see much of one right now.

Ian: What is a good solution to getting rid of purposeful HBPs? Consequences for the manager? Fine an owner every time a pitcher gets suspended for a beanball? The MLB has to realize that a potential season ending injury for a rising star is not a great idea…
Keith Law: A suspension of more than five games for a pitcher would be great. Urena should be suspended for at least 10 games … I’d say something in the 15-20 range.

Rodney: Great pizza list! I recommend Black Sheep the next time you’re in Minneapolis (equal or better than Pizzeria Lola, imo), and Lovely’s Fifty Fifty when you’re checking out Apizza Scholls in Portland.

On to less important stuff. Should John Gant stay in the rotation when Wacha returns?
Keith Law: Thanks! I don’t think so. He’s basically a replacement level starter; Wacha should be more than that.

Eric, Washington DC: I am comparing the stats of Scherzer and Nola on ESPN and I’m confused to see that Nola’s WAR is 7.4 compared to 7.0 for Scherzer. Scherzer has better numbers across the board (ERA, WHIP, Ks, Innings) so I’m wondering why he’s behind Nola. Any ideas?
Keith Law: Yes, Baseball Reference makes some small adjustments such as considering the caliber of competition the pitchers faced. They explain all of that in more detail here than I could do justice to in a chat.

Jaipur rules: What do you think would be a better 2019 plan for the Cubs? Sign Machado to play 3rd, move Baez to SS and Bryant to LF and look to trade Russell/Schwarber. Or sign Harper to play OF, keep the Infield as is and potentially trade Schwarber. It seems like both offensively and defensively Option A might be better?
Keith Law: Option A is better than B, but is either really necessary? I feel like their offense is fine, and they still have some surplus there, but they still need and will continue to need help on the pitching side, rotation and bullpen.

Brian: You mentioned on Twitter the need for people to stop scouting based on stat line. That left me wondering If you’ve got a player who isn’t old for his level, what accounts for a guy who isn’t a prospect posting a huge stat line? Is it a fluke? A guy hitting mistakes that won’t get made at higher levels, etc?
Keith Law: It can be a fluke. It can absolutely be a guy hitting minor-league caliber stuff, or getting away with things that better pitchers – with better stuff or command – will exploit.

Bighen: If Mets hire a new Gm and force him (or her) to try to compete in 2019 what is their best path? They’re not signing machado, Harper etc and improving around the margins on a ~75 win team probably not getting it done. That being said the last two months have made it look like they have 3 aces. Or an ace and two top end SP anyway. Hard to see how they do it wo the will to spend.
Keith Law: I agree. If I were asked to take that job, I’d be talking three-year plans, not one-year. You have talent on the ML roster, and talent coming, but not enough to turn this team into a contender (without a LOT of luck/good health) next year unless you’re spending.

Grover: I’ve heard you express your doubts as to whether or not Julio Urias can recapture any semblance of what made him a top prospect: is your concern more with whether or not he will ever get his stuff back, or durability because of the nature of his shoulder injury?
Keith Law: I don’t think any pitcher who’s had this surgery has truly come back; some never return, and those who have have returned with reduced stuff. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs saw Urias in Arizona and reported that his stuff was indeed down.

Lyle: Earlier this season Eric Filia was traded for Roenis Elias but the Red Sox sent Filia back for a failed physical. Since then, Filia has basically played every day for the M’s AA team. So…what kind of injury causes a player to fail a physical for one team and play every day for another?
Keith Law: When I was with the Jays, we had Dustin McGowan in our system, and knew he had a partial tear of his UCL, but he pitched through it without issue for about four years until it finally snapped. He would have failed a review of medicals in a trade, but he was able to pitch.

Grover: Is there a stat to track who has hit the most rally killing homers?
Keith Law: Someone get Elias on this, stat.

tmh: Do you see Jesus Luzardo as a #2 or more of a mid-rotation guy?
Keith Law: More mid-rotation until the breaking ball improves.

Murphy: What would you do to discourage pitchers from intentionally throwing at hitters?
Keith Law: If you suspend the pitchers long enough, it will end the practice.

redsoxfan: Dio you still think Mitch Keller has ace potential? Last night start in AAA was encouraging but has struggled. Has hje developed a passable 3rd pitch yet?
Keith Law: Potential, yes. Third pitch is not there, however, and at some point it becomes foolish to assume it will be.

clb: Are Kirilloff and Franco both top 15 guys next year?
Keith Law: Franco will get there strictly from graduations, I think. Kirilloff is a stud but I don’t think top 15, not yet.

michael: do you think the giants farm system is getting on track and maybe even on the upswing? bart / hjelle seemed to be reasonable picks based upon your pre-draft rankings. their international signings (like luciano) seemed to be good. Are we another solid draft away from potentially being an above average farm system?
Keith Law: No, a few drafts from that. I didn’t like Bart at pick 2. Hjelle I did. They’ve had a down year with existing prospects, too.

CD: In the last chat you mentioned that Richie Martin is not a good defensive SS. That’s the first time I’ve heard that. One of the main reasons Oakland drafted him in the first round was because of his defensive ability. How/why did he regress since being drafted?
Keith Law: I didn’t think he was good as a junior at Florida. He was fast, but erratic, and his hands weren’t great.

Neil: Lewis Thorpe’s stats have been bonkers since June. Has he taken a step forward?
Keith Law: I only saw him in DC and it wasn’t a promising outing. I’d be glad to see him become a serious prospect, as I think it helps when players from less common markets break out, but the stuff isn’t quite there.

Randy: Are you gonna try to see Luis Robert before the season ends? Hopefully he doesn’t get injured the day before you go like the last couple times!
Keith Law: They don’t come near me again. I’m hoping he ends up in Fall League.

Harry: What do you say to those so-called traditionalists who defend Urena
Keith Law: Go watch cockfighting instead. More your speed.

Jeremy: How annoyed are you of vlad Jr being in the minors ? Nothing bother me more in baseball
Keith Law: It’s kind of ridiculous now. I was trying to eyeball how many wins they’d lost by having Morales etc as their DHs this season instead of Vlad. Three felt about right.

Warbiscuit: Odds of you going back to Auburn in the spring to scout Will Holland and/or Davis Daniel?
Keith Law: Slim. Sorry.

Ryan: Have you heard anything about the Mets Kingsport roster? Very early in their careers, but there seems to be a lot of potential talent on that roster.
Keith Law: Yes. Kelenic’s on another tear now.

John: Will DeGrom set a new standard for worst W-L to win a Cy Young?
Keith Law: I would enjoy that and its aftermath very much. My colleague Michael Wilbon had some rather outdated thoughts on the subject the other day.

Rob: So Will Myers at 3rd did not look “terrible” from my eye. With all the outfield guys they’re trying out and Hosmer (sadly) locked in, would you spend the off season trying this out? As far as I can tell 3b is one of the few places the Padres don’t have elite prospects coming.
Keith Law: Potts is pretty damn good. And one or more of those shortstops will move to third eventually. But for next year, moving Myers back to 3b would be a great idea.

Joe: If you’re the Braves, do you put Touki in the big league rotation and let him go or do you use him kind of like D. Price in his rookie year out of the bullpen to limit his innings?
Keith Law: Break him in slowly now, as a long reliever, but he’s in the rotation in April for me.

Andre: Was at Bryse Wilson’s start last night in Gwinnett. He was filthy from start to finish. Is he a DUDE/what’s his potential?
Keith Law: Was on my midyear top 50. I’m a huge fan. Great pick in the 4th round, great work by player development to clean him up too.

john: How much should we be concerned about Faedos drop in speed and dominancy? Seems like he went from a 2-3 guy to back end guy.
Keith Law: I was a little bearish on him in the draft – I saw a slider-heavy guy without a fastball that was good enough to make him a potential 2.

DevilExpos: Thoughts on Brandon Lowe? Is there anyone else you like in the Rays system that isn’t as heralded as Jesus/McKay and could breakout soon like Lowe did this season? Solak? Brock Burke? Joe McCarthy?
Keith Law: I do like McCarthy, but his upside is probably capped if he doesn’t gain power somewhere. Ronaldo Hernandez might be a star. I’m still a Lucius Fox fan. Michael Mercado has looked really good despite so-so results.

Justin : The Boston Globe is getting threats for running an editorial claiming a free press is not the enemy. Are these the end times?
Keith Law: Yes.

Ben: Did the Acuna HBP appear intentional to you?
Keith Law: 100%.

Kosmo: Love your work Keith! Maybe as a rangers fan I’m desperate for one of our young pitchers to turn out good, but joe palumbo looks great coming off the injury. Do you think he has mid-rotation potential?
Keith Law: I would just barely take the under on this.

Dan: Is Kyle Tucker going to be okay?
Keith Law: He’s 21. Yes.

Mike: Keith, the Braves just signed up to be a high-visibility sponsor for a fundraising event for the Republican candidate for governor. He is virulently anti-immigrant. How do you think the Braves players feel about that?
Keith Law: He’s not just anti-immigrant. He has a history of voter suppression and targeting minority groups that try to encourage people of color to vote.

RB: What’s going on with Anderson Espinoza? Do you think he can regain form post-injury, whenever that is?
Keith Law: We’ll see next year. I don’t think he was expected to see the mound in games this year.

Lark11: Is there any hope for Robert Stephenson? He’s issuing 4-pitch walks to opposing pitchers and missing his location on some pitches by 3 feet. Is there any lingering basis on which to hope for improvements in control/command? If not, is there any role in which he can actually provide positive production? Thanks!
Keith Law: He’s one of the bigger disappointments for me in the last few years because the stuff has been so damn good but he has made zero progress in three seasons. Putting him in the bullpen probably isn’t going to solve anything, either; this isn’t about lacking stuff to turn over a lineup, but about not throwing enough strikes.

Devon: Keith, do you think Tampa Bay will take its time developing Wander Franco? Would a monster performance force their hand or will they stick to org. philosophy?
Keith Law: I’ll predict he’s in the majors before he turns 20.

Deke: Understand if you can’t answer this, but listening to you guest-hosting for Buster recently, is it difficult for you to do some of the ad live-reads? I felt like I was listening to a pod person hearing you speak highly of certain hot dogs and certain beers.
Keith Law: I was trying very hard not to crack up while reading those. Especially the one for a mass-market beer I wouldn’t drink if you paid me.

Chris: Any GM candidates you’d like to see get a look this offseason?
Keith Law: The Mets are supposedly going to interview my old mentor from Toronto, Tony Lacava, who would be a superb choice, and would fit the alleged ‘old-school’ preference while giving them someone who was also very quick to adapt to the analytical side too. I’ve also seen other names I would recommend on their potential interview list – Bobby Heck, Jared Porter, Ben Cherington, any of whom would be a very good hire.

JP: what would be your AL MVP ballot as of today?
Keith Law: Betts, Ramirez, Trout.

Scott: With LeMahieu about to be a free agent and Story looking like a regular for now, would you shift Brendan Rodgers over to 2B next season or is Garrett Hampson someone you think is worth giving an every day opportunity to in the meantime?
Keith Law: I prefer Rodgers at short to Hampson. There are scouts who disagree and scouts (more) who think both end up at other positions.

Matt: Outside of recent draft picks, are there any rules regarding PTBNLs? If team A wanted a specific young major leaguer but team B wanted to keep him for a current playoff run, could they agree on him and complete the trade after the season?
Keith Law: You can’t rent a player like that. There are rules on PTBNLs. I don’t have them handy right now.

JP: does Greg Bird have the skills (and health) to be an above-average 1B?
Keith Law: Defensively? No shot.

Jack: So what did you see from Adam Haseley?
Keith Law: My Insider post on him will be up shortly. I already filed it.

Brian: Bukauskus has been pitching well this season. Was it just a matter of him getting healthy?
Keith Law: He was recovering from a serious car accident.

J: Obviously a SSS since the trade, but could the Tigers have stolen a player in Wili Castro?
Keith Law: I raved about him in my writeup of the deal.

Dave: These chat are too fun, Keith. You’re gonna have to be knocked down.
Keith Law: Dammit, Jose.

Nick Taylor: Book recommendation: “There There” by Tommy Orange. Gritty realist novel of linked stories, a la Jennifer Egan’s “Goon Squad,” with a cast of Native American characters living in Oakland. Climax is a huge powwow (festival) on the field at the Coliseum. Best novel I’ve read this year. Watch this guy Orange…
Keith Law: Thank you! Hadn’t heard of this.

Van Skike: Should the Reds give Siri a September call-up this year?
Keith Law: I’m more interested in how they call him up. “Hey, Siri!”
Keith Law: (Also: No. He’s not hitting in AA.)

The Bilmo: Very reasonable pizza list! Many I’ve been to, many more I’m looking forward to. Assuming you’ve enjoyed Pepe’s white clam, have you tried Zuppardi’s white clam in neabry West Haven? Many (not me) say it beats Pepe’s. It’s awfully good (the clams are shucked to order), and the fact that there can even be a Pepe’s/Zuppardi’s debate makes it noteworthy.
Keith Law: I have tried Pepe’s white clam pizza and don’t like it at all. I don’t think clams belong on pizza. Or anywhere with cheese involved.

J: Better chance of rebounding/becoming a good starter? Faedo or Burrows?
Keith Law: I think Burrows is a high probability starter.

Lark11: Honest question: to this point in his career, is Mike Trout the best baseball player in the history of the sport?
Keith Law: I would say so. I tend to favor contemporary players over past ones, because the level of competition today is so much higher. The best player in the world in 1910 had a lower bar to clear than the best player today.

leprekhan: Who is the Braves’ prospect whose stock has gone up the most in your eyes? What players have seen their stock go down the most?
Keith Law: Drew Waters had the biggest turnaround, after looking bad last summer, now hitting well enough to get promoted midseason.

Jeff: Jarred Kelenic and Shervyen Newton are basically the same age at the same level. Newton has show so far at his previous levels his ability to get on base . I understand that at this age part of a prospects ranking is a projection, I was just wondering what makes Kelenic such a better prospect than Newton and if you are high in Newton at all?
Keith Law: Different tool sets. I do like Newton.

Rick: Are Eloy and Vlad Jr, both going to be held down until mid-April 2019 at this point? What other reason is there for them not to be up right now?
Keith Law: No real reason other than service time.

Brett: Are there any issues with Kirilloffs approach at the plate? It seems like he swings at everything (but also hits everything).
Keith Law: No. An aggressive approach is only an issue when you don’t hit.

Devon: Keith, has Will Smith passed Keibert Ruiz?
Keith Law: Ruiz is 19. Really?

Ryan: If Brice Turang never develops more than some modest gap power, what is his ceiling as a player overall? Is there enough else there to sustain a 4-win player?
Keith Law: I question whether he’ll hit enough to be a 4-win player.

Dan: What do you think the ceiling is for Brusdar Graterol?
Keith Law: If you think he can start, he’s a 2/3. Command will hold him back from more. Scouts I have asked about him think there’s a lot of closer to him, reflecting the stuff, the style of pitching, and the lack of present command.

WarBiscuit: Does the minor league lifestyle play a deterrent role in parents sending their kids to college ball, particularly if they don’t get a good draft selection or offer? Obviously I still think the Brady Aikens, Carter Stewart and JT Ginn’s of the world should take the money and run. As a student of a major DI baseball school, the college does provide free food that’s actually nutritious to the baseball players and can at least sleep in comfortable beds, where as the lack of pay can prevent a nutritious diet and and can cut into your signing bonus which can turn into 5 figures after taxes. It may be better on a baseball development perspective depending on the coach for those reasons. Obviously if it’s Rice/UVA/Stanford it is not as good, but if it’s Florida/Vandy, it may be better. I think MLB teams should pay minimum wage for the season’s length or at least provide better diets to the minor league grinders. I’m sure you have more to say on this.
Keith Law: I do hear this occasionally from parents and often from college coaches and even players who went to college – the minor league life ain’t fun, but college ball can be. I get that. If college coaches as a whole did a better job of developing players – using pitchers responsibly, teaching hitters to hit instead of fucking bunting in the motherfucking first inning i’m not angry – I’d be more of an advocate for college. Some schools, like the ones you named (Florida, Vandy), do a better job than others. I think the individual school matters tremendously. And MLB doing an end run around the courts to avoid paying a living wage to minor leaguers was a disgrace.

Junior : Billy Eppler has completely change the Angels farm system to a top ten system. Do you agree?
Keith Law: He’s changed it to an above-average system.

Kwame : Who (in an ideal/optimized world) plays first base for the Mets next year. Also can you post the link you used to put on twitter that outlines fallacies?
Keith Law: Smith should probably play every day from here on out, with the plan to transition to Alonso at some point next spring … if Alonso’s defense is good enough. I don’t think it is right now. Yourlogicalfallacyis.com is the site you want.

Larry: Madrigal slugging .340 in the low minors. Please tell me the 4th pick in the country has more than 30 power.
Keith Law: I thought he had 35 power so … yes?

Zac: Please tell me the Jays will call up Vlad Jr when rosters expand?
Keith Law: I don’t think they will.

JP: is there no worthy pizza in Boston? Regina’s?
Keith Law: Overrated. Never had Santarpios, which gets some raves, and which many locals will tell you is good if you’re drunk and it’s 2 am.

Zach D: Ever have your child throw a board game at you cause you beat her? I mean, that’s how you make your competition feel uncomfortable or something
Keith Law: We just rapid-fire meeples at each other.

andy: OK. I get it. Small sample size. But should I be encouraged by Grant Lavigne’s performance in the Pioneer League (a hitter’s league, for sure). I know you wrote that he might have had a higher pre-draft grade if he were from a warm weather state. Has his performance backed that up further?
Keith Law: Go look at past seasons for the Grand Junction club, and how many hitters have gone bananas there, even at young ages, but never panned out. I wouldn’t really alter my view on Lavigne until he’s at sea level.

Nick: Garver Alston said that he could see Dakota Chalmers being an “organization changer.” Is there any reason to believe there could be any truth to that or is that just him blowing smoke?
Keith Law: I strongly disagree with that assessment. Also he’s out with TJ so he’s not changing anything just yet.

Kingpin: And a follow up…should Lulen Baker be at a higher level considering he is a college hitter in Low-A?
Keith Law: He’s in the Appy, no? Gorman belongs there, Baker I’d have moved up by now.

Josh : Taylor Ward seemed to come out of nowhere, wasn’t on any top 100 lists yet the buzz appears to be high on him…. Your thoughts?
Keith Law: Didn’t belong on top 100 lists. Was old for AA, raked in a hitter’s park in AAA. Has power, fair hit tool, unclear position.

Adam: Have you come around on Camargo’s bat at all? If he is this player is he a regular?
Keith Law: He isn’t this player.

Adam: I had never seen Touki pitch before his debut. How on earth does that curve break that way from that arm slot?!?!
Keith Law: He’s always had an insanely loose arm, and great arm speed. He’s among the most fun pitching prospects to watch because he can do so many things so easily.

Chuck: Was David Bote on any scouts radar as any kind of a prospect? Sure, it’s a SSS, but you have to love how he plays the game and what he brings offensively and defensively. I guess he’s a reminder that scouting isn’t an exact science.
Keith Law: He was #12 on my Cubs ranking preseason, so I guess he’s a reminder that you should read the stuff I write?

Tracy: Have you read any Philip K Dick books? I don’t recall any mentions of his works from you.
Keith Law: I’ve read sixteen of his novels.

Jax : So Profar’s had a pretty good year. He should put up even better numbers going forward, right?
Keith Law: He’s had a solid year. I still feel like there’s much more in there.

Nate: If you felt comfortable projecting ke’bryan Hayes to hit 20 homers would he be a top 10 prospect?
Keith Law: Top 10 is awfully steep. I can only put ten guys in there.

Aaron C.: Your pizza list — and the discussion it produced — was fun! I remember a few years ago, you ranked rap songs. Have you done any other “Dish” lists that I can peruse to waste time at work today?
Keith Law: Novels, back in 2013ish. I need to update that. Then annual rankings of songs etc.

Jaime : Remember that NYT cartoon about how freedom of speech works? Yeah, the firing of James Gunn was Disney (and everyone) letting him know his jokes were trash. It’s not a good look for you when you defend him.
Keith Law: I did not defend him. I thought his jokes were trash.

Guest: more likely to have better career: ian happ or hunter renfroe; jake junis or jake faria
Keith Law: Happ. faria.

Oscar: Monsanto has to pay 289 million for roundup giving a man cancer, yet we’re supposed to believe GMO’s are safe based on the studies they fund, and ignore their questionable history to boot? Count me out.
Keith Law: Monsanto may have to pay a man something because 12 idiots believed a lawyer’s claims that Roundup gave the man cancer, despite a lack of any scientific evidence to support this. Cancer doesn’t even need a cause. The jury system is utterly useless for adjudicating questions of science.

Joe: Keith, thank you for the write-up of Gen Con games. I asked you in a chat years ago about a game that would work well for someone who was blind. My wife Martha lost most of her vision when she was 20 years old. She loves to play games but most games don’t work well for her. We’re looking forward to trying your No. 1 recommendation.
Keith Law: You’re quite welcome. Nyctophobia should be in Targets any day now – mine had a space for it on the shelf but no copies as of last week.

Richard: Kevin Smith seemingly came out of nowhere and is raking in Lansing. Do you see a future regular SS in him?
Keith Law: I do not. He also hasn’t been in Lansing since early June, and isn’t hitting that well in Dunedin (a more appropriate spot for a 22-year-old college product).

Jax : Were you surprised that Atlanta didn’t dangle Fried at the deadline? And do you think they will this winter? I think he could be really good but it’s difficult to see how he fits into their rotation.
Keith Law: He’d be in that Sims group I mentioned earlier (I know they dealt Sims). Fried pitches in someone’s rotation, but I don’t think he’s top six on their depth chart.

Danny: I live across the street from Franny’s last location before they closed and agree with your take. Please try Emily’s in Crown Heights next time you’re in Brooklyn
Keith Law: Lot of recs for Emily’s.

Karl: Are you buying that Glasnow just needed a change of scenery? Or perhaps too soon to judge?
Keith Law: Too soon to judge. Also entirely possible that he needed a new voice to help him find a delivery he can repeat.

Jesse B: If the 2018 MLB Draft was held today, who would be drafted much higher? Gorman?
Keith Law: You’re dealing with tiny samples for all these guys. I don’t think a ton would change.

Josh : Is Gavin Lux a potential all-star MI?
Keith Law: Potential, yes.

Quincy: I recently discovered (and loved!) your 100 favorite novels list. I wondered if you could comment on why none of Solzhenitsyn’s or Tolstoy’s works made your list. Not a fan personally, or do you see their work as less than excellent?
Keith Law: Don’t think Tolstoy’s works hold up that well at all – the reputation Russian novels have for excessive length and meandering plots falls primarily on him. I’ve only read one of Solzhenitsyn’s novels, Ivan Denisovich, and didn’t love it.
Keith Law: I’ve read almost 1000 novels now, so making my top 100 would mean something would have to be in the top 10% of everything I’ve read.

Jax : Do you think Giolito needs an off-season to get his shit straight? He’s at least looked decent recently and his velo is back up to 93-95.
Keith Law: He’s looked better recently outside of that one outing vs the Yanks (and giving up a grand slam to Stanton is … well, forgivable?). But overall it’s not the year I expected, especially since all reports in March had him repeating his delivery and commanding the ball in a way he hasn’t really all season.

Ron: A question I just thought of because work is boring me: Who is the best team in the NL? My initial reaction is the Cubs, but the pitching staff and uncertainty with Bryant’s shoulder makes me nervous. Arizona might be the top choice, right?
Keith Law: Gut answer is the Cubs. I won’t argue Arizona.

Anthony: How much of a long term cause for concern is Hunter Greene’s UCL injury
Keith Law: It depends a bit on how serious the sprain is. At this point, they’re acting like it will only require rest. But a sprain typically means a tear, even a tiny one. (It can sometimes mean the ligament has been stretched to the point of causing pain or discomfort, but it’s a fine line between that and the beginnings of a UCL tear.)

Greg: Harrison Bader outperforming your expectation? Baseball Reference at 3.5 WAR now
Keith Law: WAR doesn’t do that well with part-time players (which he was for much of the season) when they’re used for platoon purposes. He still has nearly 40% of his PA vs LHP, whom he has killed, but has been way below average, probably near replacement level, vs RHP.

Greg: I happened to be at an event where Chvrches played recently, and I got a quick second to meet Lauren Mayberry. Even though I avoid meeting my idols out of fear of disappoint, I couldn’t pass this one up, and she was maybe the nicest, most polite person I’ve ever encountered and I have no question but just wanted to say that there are still good things in the world.
Keith Law: That’s awesome to hear although unsurprising given her writings and the interviews I’ve seen. Also I’m a fan because I’m pretty sure she’s shorter than I am.

Jake: Kyle Isbel has been raking since entering Pro ball, as a KC fan, is this a guy I should be excited about?
Keith Law: I’m on it, but next year in high-A will be a real test of what he is.

John: I saw Schilling tear into Olberman the other day regarding his Monday Night Baseball broadcasting job. I actually enjoyed the broadcast very much and wish Kieth were on more often? Do you know Olberman at all?
Keith Law: I’d say that’s a badge of honor for Keith. I have talked to Keith a few times, and was on his show several times a few years ago. He’s off the charts intelligent and really knows his shit about baseball – and we still disagree on stuff. Also, if you ask ESPN people who worked with him, they all marvel at how fast he could absorb material and how long he could speak extemporaneously on air.

Matt: Not going overboard, but did you see this kind of year from Andujar? He never seemed to project to this, but ignored he can maintain this he is a solid regular.
Keith Law: I think he’s a regular, trending towards a 55 rather than a 50. Had him on my top 100 in the winter and argued that they didn’t need to acquire a 3b because he could do it.

Mike : What major-league team’s record that you are most surprised at this year ?
Keith Law: Phillies on the up side, Nats on the down side.

Sam: How would you rank all of the Mission Impossible movies?
Keith Law: I saw the first one and stopped.

Ryan: Does Fredy Peralta ever develop enough command to be an above average big league starter?
Keith Law: It’s not command – it’s stuff.

Tracy: Also, another book question. Have you read GK Chesterton? Father Brown books?
Keith Law: Only The Man Who Was Thursday, which is weird and probably not that great as a novel but still kind of wonderful for its strangeness.

mickey: what’s the first thing I should try cooking in my new sous vide device?
Keith Law: Serious Eats’ chicken thighs recipe. Easy and fantastic.

Mike: This may be a very personal question, and if so, I apologize. Do you send your daughter to public school in Delaware, or private school? No judgement either way, just curious.
Keith Law: Charter school. I would not pay for private school. Delaware does underfund its public schools, unfortunately – my taxes are shockingly low – and we discovered that class sizes were too big in our local elementary school.

Zach: See you finally made it to Spacca Napoli. Thoughts? (That was me who created the pizza map)
Keith Law: Yes, two years ago, I think – the day Schilling was fired by ESPN for the transphobic meme. I nearly missed my flight because the news broke and my phone blew up. The meal was amazing, though. Would go back in a heartbeat.

Jake: Keith, give me an under the radar name to watch for among KC prospects.
Keith Law: I don’t have one for you. You know the good ones. Below that, it drops off quickly.

Rick C: Who would be your NL MVP right now? The top three position players are all at 5.0 fWAR, though deGrom, Scherzer, and Corbin are ahead of them.
Keith Law: deGrom.

Royals Fan in DC: Which Wilmington Blue Rock has improved his MLB prospect status the most this season? We Royals fans need a glimmer of hope.
Keith Law: Khalil Lee but he’s long gone from Wilmington. The team now is void of prospects. Next year we could have Matias, Melendez, Pratto, Isbel, and the five college starters they just drafted.

Dr. Bob: I am in complete agreement on the idiocy of relying on pitcher wins and losses. However, I was reminded of Steve Carlton going 27-10 with a 1.97 ERA and 30 complete games in his first of four Cy Young seasons. The 27 wins represented 46% of the Phillies wins. Flawed stat, but that’s quite a season.
Keith Law: I agree. And pitcher wins, while always flawed, were slightly less so when pitchers were able to work much deeper into games. But now they throw a lot harder, and relievers throw harder than that, and we know teams are more likely to win by pulling the starter after 3x through the order (or sooner).

Nick: Next big competitive advantage a team will figure out and l leverage in player development ? My guess is it’s gotta be health related.
Keith Law: I was asked that by a writer 12+ years ago, in my last spring with Toronto. That was my answer then and it’s still my answer now.

Ryan: Would you be able to name a beer or 2 that you would consider your favorite?
Keith Law: Evolution Lot #3 IPA.

HugoZ: Wouldn’t it be wiser to simply state that every mlb team should avoid the perception that it’s favoring a particular candidate,whatever his or her ideology, so as to avoid alienating part of the fan base?
Keith Law: I mostly agree with this. However, if one of your candidates is a white supremacist, that’s where you make the exception. (And there are quite a few running this November.)

Brett: Not a question, but as a direct result of followin your chats and your work, my outfield in fantasy baseball next year (Keeper league) will be Acuna, Soto and Jimenez.
Keith Law: That seems good.

Nick: Do you think Bobby Dalbec is legit? How does he compare to other Sox infield prospects like Chavis and Ockimey?
Keith Law: Dalbec is way better than Ockimey. Contact rate is way too low. He makes extremely hard contact when he hits it though and is using the whole field now. Huge power, 80 arm, a lot better on defense. I just can’t find a good comp for a hitter with his strikeout rate at his age.

John: Is the whole, “It’s the water” thing true when it comes to why New York pizza is awesome and Delaware pizza sucks?
Keith Law: The water thing is bullshit.

Joe: Scherzer has given up twice as many HRs as Nola. Is this, and should it be, a significant factor in determining WAR?
Keith Law: It’s not in B-R’s formulation. Theirs is based on runs allowed – a run is a run.

Jake: Keith, several KC prospect sites i follow portray Kahlil Lee as a potential “5 tool guy”…is this the case?
Keith Law: That’s not wrong. He can show you enough of all five that you could argue that, but I think he’ll end up more an average runner.

Hank: What’s the holdup on declaring Victor Victor Mesa a FA?
Keith Law: Has he been cleared by OFAC? That’s out of MLB’s control.

Brent : Hi Keith, hoped you enjoyed your time in Indy during GenCon. Curious if you made any food stops during your visit? Thanks.
Keith Law: Milktooth twice, Izzy’s once (i had the shrimp cocktail and couldn’t feel my face), and the rest from all those great food trucks.

Jo-Nathan: Why hasn’t Houston moved Tony Kemp to 2B, and just played Marwin in the OF; Kemp just doesn’t seem to have a lot of range in the OF.
Keith Law: Kemp was really bad at 2b as an amateur too.

ck: There is plenty of caterwauling in MN about the Twins’ fire sale – from where I sit, with the possible exception of not signing Escobar (assuming they could have), my sense was that everything else they did was smart or at least quite defensible – would you agree? Given the uncertainty with Sano/Buxton they certainly can’t pretend they’re in a position to win soon.
Keith Law: Completely agree with you. They did well. And it was the right move.

Scott: What was your initial impressions of Matt Chapman as a prospect? I feel like his ability to make contact has been a hugely pleasant surprise
Keith Law: You are spot on. His K rate this year is 22.8% in the majors. He was at 28% or higher every stint in AA and AAA. That is the shocking part. I thought he was a 70 defender with an 80 arm and 70 power but a 40 hit tool at best because he struck out so often.

Chris: Mediterranean diet: (1) not worth the effort; (2) great idea, but cumbersome and expensive; or (3) all in?
Keith Law: I don’t follow any specific diet plans.

Chris: I’ve heard (er, read) you sing the praises of a good espresso maker before. But I’ve never really appreciated it until I went from drinking k-cups in the morning (I know, not really coffee) to making my own espresso and americanos with a Breville espresso maker. It was expensive to be sure, but life altering. So thanks for getting on that soapbox.
Keith Law: You should all listen to me on food and coffee just never on Chris Sale.

Chris: Hi Keith, I saw a few weeks ago or more that you said you were readin The English Patient. I never saw you review it and I was interested in your thoughts on. Thanks.
Keith Law: I really thought I wrote that up. Found it surprisingly dull and rambling. Couldn’t connect with any of the characters. Maybe I wrote it and never posted it?

Max: I know that you read HP to your daughter. My son is only seven months old, so I’ve got some time, but at what age did you start reading Sorcerer’s Stone to her?
Keith Law: She was 7 3/4. Of course 9 3/4 would have been more poetic but we didn’t want to wait.

Devil’s Advocate: Acuna did not help himself. Either he was guessing away and/or breaking ball or simply hasn’t learned to turn in because his reaction to the pitch was like a catcher crossed up on signs.
Keith Law: She was totally asking for it.

Brett: Why did your wife decide to stop doing her blog? I see you removed it.
Keith Law: Her call. She hadn’t updated it in a while. I’ve encouraged her to continue as I thought it helped her as she dealt with panic disorder (which is something I can only understand as an outsider, having dealt with that only intermittently).

Jimmay: Having read so many award winning books, are there any authors whose entire catalog you’d like to read?
Keith Law: I do that quite a bit. I’ve got two Graham Greene books left. I think I read all of Vonnegut’s works except his final novel.

Chris: I’ve always been a big Plawecki fan. Love the build and think he’s just an all-around decent catcher (which is fine). Let him start next year, right?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Sean: Keith, have you read “It Can’t Happen Here” by Sinclair Lewis? I’m reading it now and well, I just can’t even. My fear is that with all of this hope concerning the mid-terms it’ll end up a vast disappointment for the reality-based community
Keith Law: I read and reviewed it in 2011, and reposted it in March of 2016 when it became clear what was happening.

Lee: After this debacle of a presidential administration is over, how do we change the minds/ attitudes of 35% of our electorate that believes facts/science don’t matter? That’s an awful lot of people to just write off.
Keith Law: We can’t. Denialism is extremely tough to undo.

JR: If you made it your full time job, do you think you could win $$ betting MLB (as much as you currently make annually)
Keith Law: No. that’s like trying to play the stock market.

Nick: One pizza recommendation. If you like Neapolitan-style, you should try Naples Street Food the next time you are on Long Island, in Franklin Square. They are fairly new and quite delicious. Very authentic.
Keith Law: Thanks. I never go to LI any more. I don’t have any family left there.

John: One study found limited evidence of a possible increase in one type of cancer from glyphosate, but could no rule out study bias, confounding variables, etc. If we used that standard anyone who gets cancer and ate McDonald’s french fries has a case.
Keith Law: Exactly. But juries don’t understand the scientific method; something like half of American adults don’t understand that the “theory” of evolution is proven, not “only a theory.”

Lee: I know you’ve recently read the Hyperion books by Dan Simmons. Why do you think he’s not more well known? He’s written some fantastic stuff in many different genres.
Keith Law: Genre fiction is disdained by the broader literary community.

Dan: “feel for the game”? I *think* I know what you mean … or do I? Lack of baserunning mistakes a tangible sign of this? But if you personally see a player just once/twice, you wouldn’t see this, necessarily. That info would come from scouts?
Keith Law: I can see this stuff by seeing a player once or twice, but I’ve been watching players for my job for something like 15 years now.

Mac: Do you think the top players will bow out of Jupiter again this year? This is a disturbing trend.
Keith Law: The timing of that event is terrible for pitchers. But the team USA 18U stuff is right afterwards, so if you’re bailing on one, you’re probably out for both.

Tracy: Third book question for me: I think you have a Carson McCullers book in your top 100. Do you recommend any more of her works?
Keith Law: That’s the only one I liked (The Heart is a Lonely Hunter).

Anthony: Will Estevan Florial ever show the plate discipline to access his tools
Keith Law: I think it’s very unlikely. His ability to pick up spin was nil last year when I saw him.

Chris: what terribly unhealthy food do you have trouble resisting?
Keith Law: Ice cream. Oreos. Also ice cream with Oreos.

Dan: The lyric at the top reminded me of something that drives me crazy: deluxe versions of classic albums. If I tell Spotify or iTunes to play “Rumours,” I don’t want two extra songs tacked onto the end. Can I get an amen?
Keith Law: Amen. And usually I want the studio version, not the live one.

Jakob: Bigger travesty: clams or pineapple on pizza? (I would rather eat a shoe than either.)
Keith Law: I’ve never had pizza with pineapples on it, because I’m not a savage.

snood: Keith! this is the first time I’ve recognized your opening song quote.
Keith Law: I drove down to see my family in VA this weekend, and as I passed through Silver Spring, MD, I put on Fleetwood Mac’s The Dance (one of my favorite live albums ever).

Evan: Always read about reliever concerns with Dylan Cease. Are they mostly abated given his progress this season? Does have project toward the top of a rotation?
Keith Law: He’s looked much better overall this year, and he’s stayed healthy too. I’m a buyer again after waffling a little last year.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you so much for reading. My Insider post on Baz, Haseley, Nolan Jones, and a few pitchers is now up. I should be back again next Thursday for another chat. Enjoy your weekends!

My latest Insider post has my scouting notes on some Yankees, Orioles, and Pirates prospects, plus thoughts on an umpshow I witnessed in Trenton on Tuesday.

Keith Law: People give your ears, so I be sublime. It’s Klawchat.

addoeh: Remember how excited you were as a kid when you opened a pack of baseball cards and saw a Doug Harvey or an Eric Gregg in there?
Keith Law: I have a complete set from 1985. I think it’s worth like three or four dollars now.

Andrew: So Jayson Werth said this, in his diatribe about how “nerds” are killing baseball: “… I think it’s killing the game. It’s to the point where just put computers out there. Just put laptops and what have you, just put them out there and let them play. We don’t even need to go out there anymore. It’s a joke.” Do people really misunderstand the purpose of analyzing data to this degree? Isn’t this the baseball equivalent of science-deniers discrediting evolution because “I’ve never seen a monkey turn into a human”?
Keith Law: I knew Werth a little in Toronto and was kind of shocked to see him go full denialist like that. He was one of the friendliest players to me at a time when I was quite an oddball due to my role (and probably due to my personality). I can only assume he’s just frustrated that his career ended before he was ready … but he made a lot of money because those same ‘nerds’ he decried pointed out how valuable he really was.

Meeeeeee: Hey, Keith… Given that Bellinger was never a huge power prospect in the minors, is it likely that his 2017 HR total was an aberration and that this year’s output is more likely to be what he produces in the future (with more batting average)?
Keith Law: Bellinger was always a huge power prospect.

Zach: Is Lucas Sims similar to two of the Reds’ existing former top prospects Robert Stephenson and Cody Reed?
Keith Law: No, I’d put him behind those guys today or if I were trying to rank them all based on where they were as prospects.

Matt: Dark Helmet is tweeting about “Space Force all the way!” Not like there’s anything important to tackle like climate change, fires in California, Flint, refugees, etc.
Keith Law: I can only assume the Gorilla Channel aired a marathon of V yesterday.

Scott: I will be in Pittsburgh next month (yes, going to PNC as part of trip) and looking for some restaurant recommendations if you have any good ones, thanks.
Keith Law: I haven’t been there in almost ten years. I believe two of my old favorites are still open though – Pamela’s (greasy spoon breakfast place) and Spice Island Tea House.

Rich Bower: Brendan McKay has looked great pitching – does he project more power on the batting side? Thanks as always!
Keith Law: I’ve talked to three scouts who’ve seen him recently. All have him rated very highly as a pitcher and say he should give up hitting just to focus on the mound now. Not that he couldn’t hit but he’s farther behind that way.

RK: I know you expected Royce Lewis to be a CF when he was drafted, have you changed your stance on that or no?
Keith Law: No, not sure why I would. Reports I’ve gotten are that his bat is incredibly advanced, he’s every bit as smart and instinctive on the bases as advertised, but that he’s got a long way to go to be passable at short.

JR: What are your thoughts on Tyler Mahle? He’s been great in some games this year and awful in others?
Keith Law: He’s been extremely homer-prone at home, which is unsurprising from the ballpark but still bad (16 in 52.2 IP!). The part that shocks me is that he’s walked so many guys, and weirdly enough is doing that more on the road (probably a sample-size fluke, but still, why?). He was always a command guy where you hoped the stuff was enough to make him more than a 4/5.

Bren: Do any of the more powerful FO executives like Theo have any kind of decision making power written into their contracts? The Mets desperately need to hire a strong GM/VP, but is there any way they can ensure Jeff Wilpon doesn’t end up undermining them constantly?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but I haven’t seen any of those contracts, either. I can imagine that the Cubs know that if Theo were to get undermined by one of the Ricketts’ kids (when they’re not busy propping up the kakistocracy), he’d quit.

Rick Sanchez: What kind of power ceiling do you see for Bo Bichette? He hasn’t produced many homers throughout his minor league career, but I’ve seen his power rated as high as 70.
Keith Law: I don’t know who rated him there – no scout I’ve talked to, certainly. I’ve seen Bichette a ton since HS, and I could see a future 70 hit tool, but with 55 power.

Stan: Have you ever been approached with an opportunity to teach at the university level? You are an Ivy League grad, have worked successfully in a high level industry, are very well written and spoken and, most importantly, can find racism in even the most benign of situations.
Keith Law: I’ve never understood privileged people like you who think there’s value in claiming there isn’t racism in situations where other people believe it exists. If you can’t see the microaggression in, say, publicly questioning whether a Dominican prospect has lied about his age, or why a panel of six members of the same organization from the same time period that excludes all players of color (when that team included current employee Fred McGriff) poses huge problems of representation and signals to people of color that their views aren’t valued, well, maybe sit this one out.

TC: Is there still hope for Rosario becoming an impact player? .273 OBP in 153 career games suggests he has a long way to go.
Keith Law: wow, 153 whole games.

NYTT: What’s the next step in Ian Anderson’s development? Where do you see him settling in when he gets to Atlanta?
Keith Law: Just promoted to AA yesterday. I assume you’re asking his ceiling – I think a #2 starter, maybe more. Heard nothing but great things from his recent outings.

brian: simple rule change — only the crew chief can throw out a player… if crew chief sees player arguing balls and strikes or throwing at a batter – so be it… will at least limit the umpshow!
Keith Law: I think last night’s incidents with Soto and Justin Turner highlights the problem. If Soto gets tossed for calmly pointing out that a call was wrong – you have to see Jerry Layne’s postgame comments, it’s so clear that he values the umpires’ egos over getting the call right I wanted to throw up just reading them – while Turner acts as he did and doesn’t get run, well, we have a pretty serious problem of inconsistency.

Andy E: Hey Keith, I just have to ask why you are such a nerd and love being such a NERD?!?!?!?!

Actually no real question, just wanted to say I love your work.
Keith Law: Thanks. I am a nerd and do love it.

Scott: Luis Garcia continues to rake in High-A at 18 years old. If he finishes out this year in similar fashion, does he have the potential to be a top 50 prospect heading into next year? Or is his ceiling not that high?
Keith Law: He’s certainly a top 100 guy. He’s blown past Antuna, who got 3x the money and was the higher ceiling guy, but whose body has gone totally south on him.

Billy: If the season ended today, who is your NL MVP, and who do you think would actually win?
Keith Law: deGrom. No clue who’d win.

Nick: Have you seen Jake Holmes (Phillies ‘17 11th rounder) this year? Numbers look good and wanted to see if your observations match up.
Keith Law: I haven’t. He’s 20 in short-season.

brian: Your ESPN brother posted an interesting article today that wins on a year to year basis are worthless BUT a good marker for a career review… any thoughts?
Keith Law: They’re not. Ask Bert Blyleven.

A big dumb idiot: Danny Jansen has been raking for 2 seasons now, but I’m unsure of the consensus on his defence. Could you let me know what you’ve heard?
Keith Law: Playable.

John: Royals farm system… Still bad? Terrible? Any names to keep an eye on as potential ‘next wave’ of talent players?
Keith Law: Outside of the 2018 draft, it’s bottom 2 or 3. They added a huge infusion of moderate-ceiling but high-probability talent, which is kind of what they needed most after some high picks used on prep arms haven’t worked out.

James: In the perpetually ongoing battle to shorten game length, why not limit the number of warm-up pitches? This is done quite effectively in Japan, and honestly, while the time difference isn’t going to be significant, it feels like an incredibly low-impact change to make.
Keith Law: The only warm-up pitches that might affect game length are those thrown by relievers when they enter the game. You could argue that those pitchers should be warmed up already. The rest are largely just filling time during ever-longer commercial breaks.

John: I’ve been curious about player development and stolen bases lately. Is there a reason that teams don’t have all their prospects running frequently in the minors? Even for slow guys, but especially the fast ones, it seems like it would help them develop better “baserunning intuition” and perfect skills like picking up pitcher moves and sliding, at no real cost. Can always have them tone it down when they get to MLB.
Keith Law: It hurts the hitters.

G: I enjoyed today’s write-up on prospects, but am mostly interested in your thoughts on Ke’Bryan Hayes. You mention his 3 hard-hit balls–has he made the swing changes necessary for future power?
Keith Law: I have never had a big problem with his swing. He’s just been more of a high-contact guy – and I think the Pirates preach that over power.

Chuck: What do you make of Seattle’s scouting purge? Are those jobs going to be filled?
Keith Law: That report that they let 10 scouts go was wrong. They did let six scouts go, which still isn’t great, but don’t you have to get that number right before reporting it? My understanding is that they’re not reducing their total number of scouts.

tom: Hi Keith. Do you think Chris Paddack becomes a #2 starter? Has he developed a 3rd pitch yet or is this a case of him just dominating the lower minors with 2 pitches? His numbers are unreal!
Keith Law: He doesn’t have an average breaking ball and I think that limits his ceiling, although he’s really good for a two-pitch guy (it’s a 70 CH) and is probably ready for the majors now.

Nick: Why wouldn’t the Indians try to increase Yandy Diaz’ launch angle? With his approach, exit velo, and defense, he seems like a potential star if he doesn’t hit 60% of his balls on the ground.
Keith Law: He’s always hit the ball hard when I’ve seen him. Some guys can’t make that adjustment or don’t want to try.

Kevin w : Why does our country spend so much on defense when we have no border disputes…couldn’t this money be spent on education, healthcare, and programs like social security?
Keith Law: Defense spending is never questioned. If you do, then you hate America.

romorr: There enough J2 talent to justify that Gausman trade if we lose out on Victor Victor? That inclusion of O’Day is awful right? A rebuilding team saving 10 million, at the costs of better prospects, is indefensible.
Keith Law: There’s no justifying it even if you get VVM, because the trade only gave you a ‘portion’ of him. I am assuming ownership ordered Duquette to shave payroll.

tom: I know he’s only 17, but is Wander Franco a guy you see in the majors at 19, like a Juan Soto. What’s his power ceiling?
Keith Law: Yes. 25+ homer guy. I’ll be shocked if he is still on the minors on the day he turns 20, barring injury.

Hungry: I’ll keep trying to get this answered…are there any moral issues with cooking shows? I love to watch them, but also can’t help but feel bad for the all the wasted food that could be used for better purposes than to watch a judge take a few bites for our entertainment.
Keith Law: I don’t know why you keep asking when I’ve declined to answer for … a year? I have no idea what happens to that food. We don’t know if it’s “wasted” or consumed by the crew or donated. It’s an unanswerable question.

Mike: Bryan Reynolds is getting on base at his career normal level, but he is slugging well below his career norm. Do you attribute that to his hamate bone injury at the beginning of the season? Something more? I know you just saw Altoona, do you think he can be an every day player? Thanks!
Keith Law: The hamate doesn’t help but he’s also never shown the same game power in pro ball as he has in BP or in college.

Bryan: What kind of player is Dereck Rodriguez going forward? Is he just a great story or a legit mid rotation guy for the future?
Keith Law: Back end starter. Dude’s been extremely lucky – 4 HR allowed in 73 innings with his flyball rate isn’t going to last.

romorr: DL Hall should finish the year in A+, he is on fire his last 10 or so starts. Has he done enough to sneak into the top 100?
Keith Law: He was mentioned in my midseason prospects update.

John: Is Joe Simpson the worst or The. Worst.
Keith Law: He’s had a bad week. He’s also taken some shots at me over the years, so perhaps I’ll just let his words speak for him.

Nick: Any potential star position players (regardless of risk) in the Phillies system? They have the pitching but I’m skeptical about their position players.
Keith Law: I think Ortiz has a star bat but needs a position. 1B might work.

Joules: Thanks for the chats. What would you be asking for in return for Inciarte?
Keith Law: It’s whatever the market will return. He’s surplus now. They missed their ideal window to deal him.

Frank : Which WAR do you prefer, baseball reference or fangraphs?
Keith Law: I look at both.

Chris: Klaw, who is your leader for AL ROY right now. Thanks!
Keith Law: It’s Gleyber easily.

Kevin w : What do the reds need to do this offseason to be competitive in the next few years?
Keith Law: I don’t think they need to do something this offseason, but they need to figure out why their pitching prospects have fared so poorly in the majors or sometimes in AAA; and they need to get more out of Latin American scouting.

bob: Higher upside, Alex Kiralloff or Alex Verdugo?
Keith Law: Verdugo is the better athlete and defender. I feel more optimistic that Kirilloff will hit, though.

Jonathan: Is Nolan Gorman for real? The Cardinals seem to be really aggressive with him
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s aggressive given what he did in the Appy League and his raw power. Challenge him with better pitching; he’ll be better prepared for low-A next spring. Maybe he just had some draft-itis and is over it now that he’s signed.

Dana: Twelve K’s for CC Sabathia last night. How many more seasons does he need to pitch like this to be a HOFer?
Keith Law: He’s on the borderline already. Another two seasons like this would probably strengthen his case among the stat guys who argue for such players, myself included.

Jay: I was at the Nats game last night and was glad I paid to see Greg Gibson miss so many calls. Soto complaining was the culmination of many guys having an issue with Gibson.
Keith Law: Gibson had a horrible night calling balls and strikes. He should be better at his job.

Jerry: I find it interesting in that you expect umpires to put up with most of the abuse directed at them by players, even if the umpires themselves believe they are correct in their calls. Meanwhile, you summarily block anyone on social media with the gall to disagree with your opinions that are not always mainstream. Seems a bit contradictory.
Keith Law: Imagine being so stupid to think that these are equivalent. Being on social media is not my job, or part of my job, or even something ESPN requires of me. I don’t have to tolerate anything on there – and, dumbass, I only block people who are abusive. When people start swearing at me or calling me gay slurs or a see-you-next-tuesday, yeah, I’ll block them. And if Soto actually called Gibson one of those things, then he deserved to be ejected.

tim: Any concerns over Gore’s inconsistency in A ball this season, Keith? He seems to have one lights out start – then struggle. Still see him as a #1 starter?
Keith Law: Yes, I do. He’s 19 and has very little experience in pro ball.

Darnell: Is Peter Alonso’s future a DH? How do you like Andres Gimenez?
Keith Law: I like Gimenez but don’t see an impact bat there. Alonso is probably 60/40 DH/1b for me.

Guest: Now that Senzel is out for the year, do you think the Reds will say “he needs time to rehab” as an excuse to get an extra year of control next year?
Keith Law: Actually giving him three weeks in the minors in April is the right business move. I’m fine with that. I’d love to see him in the majors ASAP, selfishly, but I get it.

John : San Francisco/Palo Alto dinner recommendations?
Keith Law: Cotogna, flour + water, never been to State Bird but I hear it’s amazing.

Adam: What is the ceiling for Brusdar Gaterol? Been great so far this year.
Keith Law: I’ve heard closer/power reliever. Obviously you hope he can start but command isn’t close right now.

ZVN: Keith, you’ve been doing an exceptional job filling in for Buster on the BBT pod. I know you said you’re too lazy to do a pod every day, but would you ever be open to starting your own pod down the road? Doesn’t even have to be all about baseball. You’d definitely have a subscriber here. I’ll hang up and listen
Keith Law: Thank you! I do enjoy my week as guest host each year.

Kevin w : Would monopoly make your top 1000 board games?
Keith Law: Yes assuming I just ranked every game I’ve ever played (which has to be something like 300 by now)

Aaron C.: How would YOU handle Jesus Luzardo? I’ve read elsewhere the A’s will shut him down when he reaches an (post-TJ surgery) innings cap. Would you let him throw his last, say, 12 innings in a couple of starts in Oakland?
Keith Law: I would probably shift him to a long relief sort of role so he can get a cup of coffee in September and help lengthen the big league staff. I do worry about the breaking ball being fringy for the majors, but this is how you find out.

john: Will Daz Cameron have the same power like his Dad?
Keith Law: I doubt that.

Kevin w : Betts the 2nd best player?
Keith Law: For me, yes.
Keith Law: Javy Baez being first, of course.

KC: Do you see the Royals Nicky Lopez as a MLB regular at SS, 2B, or neither.
Keith Law: Don’t think he’s a regular at SS, but the bat is probably good enough to play everyday somewhere.

Carlo: Thoughts on Deivi Garcia? Is there significant reliever risk there?
Keith Law: There is, given his size, but I believe he has very good spin rates on the FB and breaking ball, and the results are tremendous. Probably won’t see him till next year when he gets to Trenton.

romorr: What has happen to Cody Sedlock? Heard he was overworked in college.
Keith Law: He was badly overworked in college, and the O’s didn’t help matters after he signed. He’s never been right since then.

Wes: I know he’s far away, but does Vidal Brujan have enough hit tool to project as a big leaguer?
Keith Law: Pure hit tool makes him a big leaguer. Needs something else to profile as a regular.

squeeze bunt: I swing back and forth between thinking the country will be ok, and that everything is falling apart. Are we going to be ok as a country?
Keith Law: Although I am truly not a pessimist by nature, I think we have done enough damage internally that we will never be the same and will be worse off for years if not decades from what Trump and his followers have wrought.

Tommy: Hey Keith, love your chats. Who do you feel has the higher ceiling – Luzardo, Sheffield or Mize? Do you feel all are future #2’s or do you think one is in a seperate tier from the others?
Keith Law: Again, ranked all three guys here in my midseason rankings, with ceilings discussed.

Chris: Is Erik Swanson more of the righty version of Josh Rogers or Montgomery (not in style but in terms of MiL stats vs outlook)?
Keith Law: Yeah, sounds like 6th starter type.

Jon: Keith, do you think parents/Little League coaches will try to start coaching things like incline angle, spin rate or defensive shifts? How long would you think it would take for stuff like this to trickle down so that it could be done knowledgeably?
Keith Law: I think there are absolutely parents and youth coaches doing this crap already. They shouldn’t.

AM: I have a serious question. I’m not bipolar and I’m not depressed. I don’t think I have a mental disorder but there are times where I will randomly think I just want to literally kill myself and 3 seconds later that urge is gone. It doesn’t happen often maybe once every two weeks. Is this something I should be concerned about for my mental health?
Keith Law: Yes. You should absolutely go talk to a doctor about this. I’m happy to help people who reach out with mental health issues, but what you describe is too serious for me to try to tackle as a non-professional.

Denis: Have you heard any reporting on Julio Urias? Is he still capable of being a #2 starter?
Keith Law: Eric Longenhagen has seen him and reported that Urias’ velocity is way down. I said when Urias had the surgery that he was likely done.

John : Thoughts on Bryan Mata? High walk rate at hi-a, but still only 19
Keith Law: Big arm but reliever with that slot/delivery.

Chip: Any update on Victor Victor Victor Victor or whatever his name is?
Keith Law: Still not cleared. Also your prose is too prolix.

Chris: Any thoughts on Jeff McNeil? Still an org guy?
Keith Law: I don’t think I said he was an org guy. I don’t think he’s a significant prospect or a regular.

James: Has that cutter suddenly made Nathan Eovaldi a $12M guy? Is he worth even more than that?
Keith Law: He’s worth more. And it all seems very real.

PHS: If you’re Ross Atkins, do you attempt to trade Donaldson now for any kind of prospect return, or is it better to hold on to him and see what happens this winter? My meaning there is, should they consider a one-year offer at roughly the same salary as this year (as a rotating 3B/1B/DH?
Keith Law: You offer him, and if you don’t like the return, you wait till November and make the QO. There is no reason to hold on to him now if you get a decent offer.

Chris: You may have seen that Bon Appetit just named (the OG) Portland as food city of the year. You may need to come up, even though we are, as you said, above the arctic circle. (it is 86 here rn btw)
Keith Law: I haven’t been there in ages, too, but there’s not a great work reason when the Sea Dogs come near me so often (and they’re light on prospects right now).

Aaron: Seems there are very differing opinions on the strength of the jays farm system. Im surprised to see them ranked top 5 in a couple of rankings. Seems they are top heavy but once bichette and Vlad are promoted they likely are a bottom third system. Thoughts?
Keith Law: They’re not a top five system. That just isn’t credible.

Joe: Has your evaluation of Tyler O’Neill changed after his AAA performance this year?
Keith Law: No.

cm: I know you likely aren’t sure who will be #1 overall next year, but is this an up year (Harper type), down year (Beckham type), or in between year for the #1 overall pick?
Keith Law: Very down year.

brian: Didi Gregorius can’t hit a pitch on the outside part of the plate. Also swings at everything. EVERYTHING. You can get him out by pitching up and away and down and away. He had a great April – then every single pitcher saw the same thing and he hasn’t hit much since. Can the Yankee announcers stop referring to this as a “slump?” It;s not a slump. And Boone batting him 3rd or 4th everyday is just plain pandering to the left/right crowd.
Keith Law: Since May 1st: .246/.297/.397. I didn’t realize his OBP was that bad; he’s still walking a bit so I thought he was at least providing more value there. That’s bottom of the order shit right there.

BMosc: Clarke Schmidt. Projection?
Keith Law: I missed him by a day in Aberdeen; in college, I thought he was a huge injury risk because of the delivery, good to great stuff, real competitor, could throw strikes but would have trouble with command too. He blew out, not helped by misuse at SC, but as far as I know the delivery is the same.

Chris: over/under MLB Justin Dunn starts in 2019: 15 (im taking over w that tenuous mets staff)
Keith Law: I think/hope the over.

Bryce Harper: What do you think I get in free agency this year?
Keith Law: If you finish strongly, the way you’ve hit the last five weeks, you’ll still get a huge deal, some 8-year $200MM+ contract, but I think Machado is going to be the king of this market.

Joseph: Could you compare and contrast Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint?
Keith Law: Very different guys. The only things they have in common is that they’re RH and both pitch for Atlanta. I like both with Touki having the higher ceiling.

E J : Chance that Luis Patino makes your post/pre season top 100 ? How are his off speed pitches developing ?
Keith Law: Slim.

Mike: I know you had Jose Ramirez just outside of your top 100, but he wasnt too highly rated as a prospect by many. Why did so many overlook him?
Keith Law: Little guy who never showed anything remotely close to this kind of power potential.

Brett: Royals owner David Glass has been quoted recently indicating he believes Royals should be contending again by 2020. Was this a comment directed at the GM to avoid a long rebuild or an indication of a lack of awareness of the status of the organization and their talent?
Keith Law: I mean, that’s not going to happen. I can’t tell you what Glass had in mind.

Thom Yorke: When you say “backed up” do you mean regression? In terms of a prospect’s stuff being backed up.
Keith Law: Yes, that’s what the term means.

Ben: Spice Island closed, unfortunately. But try BRGR, Spoon, or Morcilla!
Keith Law: well that sucks. Just shut the city down, then.

Aaron C.: Have you heard what, if any, MLB award vote you’ll have this year? Continuing the rich tradition of NL ROY?
Keith Law: I can only assume so. I don’t necessarily mind, since prospects is my thing, but I also wonder what’s motivating the pigeonholing.

Chris (Chicago): Keith, Mike Bates put out an interesting article the other day about the history of ticket prices in MLB and their potential effect on attendance today. The conclusion was that while baseball is in no sort of financial danger, there is a long-term consequence to the high-cost of tickets (including failing to create new fans). I was just curious about your thoughts on pricing? Is it something about which the league should be concerned enough to do something?
Keith Law: I think MLB teams price tickets rationally, to maximize revenues in the short term. If the league thinks as Mike does, that this hurts the game long term, then they might want to figure out how to subsidize lower-cost tickets in the bleachers or nosebleeds.

Brian: Deivi Grullon was once a prospect. He’s having a big AA year and the splits are fairly even. Is he on the prospect radar at all?
Keith Law: No, he’s terrible. He can really throw, but that’s about it.

Trey: Why the hell does Trump go after LeBron? I actually agree with some of his policies but why oh why does he do the dumbest shit and go after the most popular athlete in the US who is actually very impactful to his community?
Keith Law: I mean … you’re so close, Trey … it’s just … just reach a little bit father…

squeeze bunt: Do you have a way to measure quality of contact of someone in the Arizona league? For example, Xavier Edwards is hitting like 400, but is he legging out infield singles, or hitting solid line drives?
Keith Law: The teams may have some trackman data on that but otherwise you’d want to ask the scouts or coaches at those games. I won’t do any of that till the fall, when the season is over.

Sally: Is Juan Soto better than you imagined? MVP type ceiling?
Keith Law: Of course he is – if I’d imagined he’d do this, he would have been in my top 3 prospects this winter. MVP type ceiling.

Henry: Red Sox have Sale, Bogaerts, Martinez, Porcello, Kimbrel, Betts all becoming free agents in the next 2 seasons. It’s unlikely they sign them all. What do you think they do? Or should do?
Keith Law: You try to sign Betts and Bogaerts, the two youngest and the two position players on the list.

Todd: Thoughts on Yankees Luis Medina, Garrett Whitlock and Devi Garcia?”
Keith Law: Medina has enormous stuff (one scout told me he saw 100 mph, another saw him get knocked around and unable to finish one inning).
Keith Law: He’s got the highest ceiling of those three, but he’s also quite far away. I’ll try to see Whitlock soon but he was an SEC product overmatching younger A-ball hitters. His first AA start (in April) was a disaster.

Rob: Will you be doing a GenCon write-up? What was your favorite new game?
Keith Law: Yes it should go up today or tomorrow at Paste. No spoilers.

Ben: Between Willi Castro & Sergio Alcantra, do the Tigers have an everyday regular shortstop there? I think Wenceel Perez has the most upside, but is a ways off from the bigs.
Keith Law: I’m a big Castro fan. One of him or Alcantara should be a regular there.

Richard: Can Ryan Borucki stick as a back end starter?
Keith Law: Yes.

E J : Is Quantrill struggling due to the lack of development with the breaking ball, the straightness of the fastball, all of the above ? Anything else ?
Keith Law: FB velocity hasn’t held up post-2016, and he doesn’t really get on top of the ball well enough or extend over his front side like he should..

Fred: Nobody can honestly back Urban Meyer at Ohio State, right? I mean how the hell could they value wins more than domestic violence victims? I’ve actually had people tell me that Urban is the victim in the whole thing… WHY? HOW?
Keith Law: Because football. I’ve got people in the queue here trying to argue that he did the right thing (just like Paterno truthers).

Dawg: David Bote, Phillip Ervin and Jeff McNeil all are hitting pretty well in small samples. Any hope that they can become solid regulars?
Keith Law: Bote has the best bat of the three.

Danny: Have you heard anything on Shervyn Newton? Apparently that Kingsport team is stacked
Keith Law: Yep, Dutch kid, signed for just $50K two years ago. Trained in Curacao. Great feel for the game, so I’m not shocked at the plate discipline, but he’s really hitting with some impact. That Kingsport team would be really fun to watch if I could figure out where Kingsport is.

addoeh: Regarding Werth, what FO person told him not to bunt against the shift? Don’t do it all the time but once in a while in the right situations would help.
Keith Law: Right? Wouldn’t any analytics people recommend doing that, if only as a game theory sort of response to the shift?

Gus Johnson: Is there a disconnect in the value of relievers? Good ones command a premium in the trade market but are don’t seem to be as valued in the FA market.
Keith Law: Those trades tend to be in-season and thus tactical moves for September/October.

Chris: Speaking of Wander Franco, can we get a definitive ranking of the Wander Francos?
Keith Law: Well the one in Tampa is a superstar and the others are not.

SeanE: Hi Keith. Not sure you and I would ever agree much in the political arena but just wanted to say I very much enjoy reading all your material, baseball and non baseball, alike. Do you agree however, that the rhetoric from both sides has gotten totally out of hand? What has happened to the days when politicians like Reagan and Tip O’Neill could sit down at the end of the day with a drink despite going to battle over policy issues.
Keith Law: I don’t agree. I think the current administration and the establishment wing of the GOP has adopted so many policies endemic to despotic regimes – the stuff Hannah Arendt documented in The Origins of Totalitarianism – that no rhetoric can condemn them strongly enough. Bothsidesism only makes the problem worse.

Trevor: Ankiel throwing 89 in an exhibition game. Do you take his comeback at 39 seriously? Could he get a ST invite or a minor league contract next year?
Keith Law: I’m absolutely rooting for him.

Keith: With no offense to my second cousin, I tell people I’m named after you. Who are you named for?
Keith Law: Nobody that I’m aware of, although my middle name is from my mother’s father, who died before I was born.

Brett: Not defending the level of defense spending, but maybe the reason for the lack of border disputes is correlated to how much we invest in our defense?
Keith Law: We have two borders and both are with countries with whom we have extensive, inextricable economic links. That might have more to do with it than anything else.

Joe: Hey Keith, thanks again for the chat. Can you settle a question for me? If you had to start a franchise and could pick between Severino or Nola as being your Ace, who would it be?
Keith Law: I feel better about Nola long-term, even though Severino is the better pitcher today (the last six starts notwithstanding).

Xavier: Any shot Vientos or Kelenic starts next season in full-season ball? What do you think of those guys?
Keith Law: I like both and think both start in Columbia.

JP: I LOL’ed at a guy who called you a “virtue signaller” on Twitter last weekend. Funny how that term has developed into a put-down used to “burn” anyone who expresses an interest in equality. At this point, you’re telling on yourself by even using that term aren’t you?
Keith Law: That’s my take. I don’t care if anyone thinks I have or lack “virtue.” I do care about using my platform to do an ounce of fucking good in this world before I lose it.

Matt: Moncada is on track to break the single season K record. Do you think he still lives up to his All-Star potental?
Keith Law: I have been the relative skeptic on him – still ranking him in the top 20, but never buying him as the #1 prospect or even a top ten guy. His swing and miss issues are real and were always predictable. He has enormous athleticism and upside, but I couldn’t predict he would get to it. I would still bet on him having a long career as a regular who is very up and down year to year.

E J : With 2 AZL teams, are there any emerging prospects or deep sleepers for the Padres generating interest among scouts that might have 50 FV?
Keith Law: No, it’s a lot of filler to make sure the prospects have guys to play with.

Chris: My one goal this summer has been to make a peach pie (I aim high to be sure). I’m a fairly decent cook, but have never baked anything in my life. I’m armed with an America’s Test Kitchen/Cook’s Country book. Should I try the crust recipe (which seems terribly complicated, particularly to someone like me who has never made a crust before) or just buy pre-made? If the latter, how much will it affect the taste/consistency of the pie?
Keith Law: Stella Parks’ pie crust recipe is the easiest reliable recipe I know. Very easy, doesn’t require any fancy techniques.
Keith Law: It’s on seriouseats.

Buddy the Elf: What’s your favorite color?
Keith Law: Living Colour.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: In your opinion, is an animals life less valuable than a human life? I ask because I know your stance on veganism, and you’re a rational man, but I think you don’t give a strong enough stance on factory farming. If you give equal weight to all sentient beings, isn’t our actions towards animals one of our gravest moral ills?
Keith Law: I don’t give equal weight to all sentient beings. An animal’s life is not equivalent to a human life. Our cat just died a few weeks ago of cancer. We did not operate or try expensive treatments. We were extremely sad to lose him, but the grief afterwards has not been close to the grief we faced when beloved human family members or friends have passed away. So I don’t really know where you’re coming from – and if you think I haven’t railed against factory farming, you haven’t been reading.

Carlo: What do you think of xwOBA? Do you think we’ll end up seeing certain players who consistently out perform or underperform their xwOBA — kind of like with FIP?
Keith Law: Someone – Russell Carleton, I think? – wrote a piece showing that these x-stats don’t predict future performance well enough for us to use them.

Steve: There is no active place to leave comments for the chat. Where am I supposed to ask my questions?
Keith Law: Um … right here?

(I’m pretty sure Steve was joking.)

Jeff: Did you ever think Scooter Gennett was capable of putting up 2 seasons like he has recently? I’d be shopping the shit out of him this winter.
Keith Law: I did not, and I can’t shake the sense that a lot of this is ballpark-fueled. I would shop him too. His value isn’t likely to ever be higher, and they have bats in the system.

Joshua: Hi Keith, with the Nats still hovering around .500, and still 6 games back, should they start selling now? Seems to me that Murphy, Gio, and Madson should be able to get back something “meaningful” in return. Thanks.
Keith Law: Too late for that. Besides, I think they should be going for it.

mike honcho: who are some names you are expecting to see in the AFL this year?
Keith Law: I am hoping we get Tatis Jr., Vlad Jr., Robles (if not on the playoff roster), F. Whitley (ditto), maybe G. Whitley?

Russ: Thanks for the chats. We have a son who is going to be a HS freshman this year. What is more important in the summer: large national tournaments or playing on the best team………or some combination of both.
Keith Law: Playing, having fun, not playing too much, and if he’s a pitcher not throwing too much.

Dallas: I’ve been watching old Top Chef seasons (the first season I saw was the 1st All-Star season) and realized the show peaked in Las Vegas with the Voltaggio brothers, Kevin Hubbard, and Jen Carroll. They’ve never had a group of chefs like that season and probably have no chance to ever get that much quality again. I understand now why you’ve given up on the show but at the same time wish you would come back.
Keith Law: That was definitely the best season, although the All-Star season where Blais won was pretty great too.

Michael: The cooking show completely misunderstands why hunger exists. It’s the economic system that keeps people in poverty and hungry, not a lack of food. And the amount of food used on all cooking shows combined is still a pittance.
Keith Law: I agree, although food waste is pretty terrible too. Colicchio tweets about it often, so I am hard-pressed to think Top Chef is just composting all that stuff.

Angelo: When a guy like Oscar Mercado has “average at best speed” but consistently steals 30+ bases in the minors, how does that usually translate at the major league level? Do you think he can steal 20+ bases as a regular with what his speed is?
Keith Law: It may indicate that he’s particularly skilled at stealing – at reading pitchers, picking his spots, etc.

Bort: Is it time for the Astros to move McCullers to the pen permanently?
Keith Law: I think so.

Adam: I know you have been skeptical on Newcomb at times due to his walk rate. It seems he has progressed further and further. Are you buying now?
Keith Law: No.

AJ: Do you regret asserting that it was “absolutely racist” to include the 6 HOF members of the 90s Braves (who happen to be white) in a roundtable interview? It’s wrong, clearly, as being in the HOF and being in Cooperstown last week were prereqs for the interview. But it is also unhelpful for the cause of racial justice that you (and me and many others) promote. It undermines legitimate claims of the racism you thought you were seeing.
Keith Law: The obstinacy is stunning. The “prereqs” themselves were the problem. Those guidelines were not handed down by God or encoded in the laws of the universe. Someone chose criteria that excluded all players of color. They could just as easily have chosen other criteria that put at least one person of color in that room – but they didn’t. That is a failure of representation. And your comment is a failure of critical thinking.
Keith Law: I’m out, there’s only so much dumb I can take in one sitting. Plus my car needs its annual oil change. Thanks for all the questions and for reading, as usual. I should be on a regular Thursday chat schedule this month unless there’s a day game I need to hit. Look for my Gen Con wrapup soon over at Paste.

I had a slew of Insider posts around the trade deadline, including:

• the Kevin Gausman trade
• the Chris Archer trade
• the Tommy Pham trade
• the Roberto Osuna trade
• the Jonathan Schoop trade
• some smaller prospect deals from Tuesday

I’ll be at Gen Con 2018 in Indianapolis from tomorrow through Sunday, including a scheduled book signing on Friday at noon. If you can’t get me there, feel free to reach out and I’ll make sure I find you during the con.

Keith Law: Throw away your calendar. It’s Klawchat.

Dr. Bob: Tommy Pham was my favorite STL player. Played hard. Spoke his mind. Made no excuses when things weren’t going well. Cards wanted Archer. I don’t understand why they wouldn’t pay the price of a couple of prospects along with Pham and signing money to get him. Totally baffled.
Keith Law: I understand moving Pham to make room for Bader and perhaps O’Neill (Mercado, whom I mentioned in the Pham write-up, was later traded to Cleveland). I don’t quite get moving Pham but not addressing another need on the major-league roster. And Pham was so popular and active in the community, in addition to just being a good player, that it feels like a larger loss for the team to move him and not replace him with someone just as good.

Brendan: Through the years, have any of the minor league players you write about in your columns ever reach out to discuss your evaluations of them?
Keith Law: Very rarely. One was upset I said he projected as a fourth outfielder. It turned out he didn’t even become that in the end. I’m happy to discuss my evaluation with a player, as long as it’s offline. There’s no upside to having that discussion in public.

CT Pilgrim: The Nats stood pat yesterday. Does that make any sense? Either improve the team for the 2018 run, or move some lesser pieces (Murphy, Gio, etc) for 2019.
Keith Law: If the Nats believe they can catch one or both teams ahead of them this season with the roster they have – I do – then it made sense.

Brian: The Yankees signed a cluster of IFA’s who received significantly less than the other IFA’s ranked near them. Is this just the Yankees IFA machine at work, or could another IFA package deal situation (similar to the Red Sox a couple years back) be in the works?
Keith Law: My reaction was that they locked up these kids a while ago, and their perceived values have gone up since then. Remember that for most July 2nd IFAs (non-Cuban), teams and agents strike oral agreements when the kids are 14 or even younger.

Miles from somewhere: I suggested this on Twitter, but I really dug “Sorry to Bother You” and think it’s worth an add to your list. Thanks all the writing, baseball and otherwise.
Keith Law: It’s on the list. August and September are much better for getting to the movies than July is.

David: How long would it typically take to alter a starters routine to convert them to the bullpen (thinking about Touki in September) and do you think this sort of late season change could be detrimental to a pitchers development or even heighten injury risk?
Keith Law: I don’t think it takes any time to alter the routine in that direction, but I wouldn’t use Touki or any full-time starter as a one-inning, two or three days in a row reliever.

JR: As a Mets fan (TIA for your sympathies), I’m happy they didn’t trade any of their key guys yesterday because 1) the return they got for Familia was so light I was worried they would get fleeced and 2) they have a 3 headed GM right now. Would rather wait until offseason when one GM is calling the shots to trade key guys.
Keith Law: I 100% agree with point 2. They have to let the new GM shop deGrom, Thor, or whoever else.

Bob: On a scale of one to ten how excited should people be about the rays wander Franco
Keith Law: He was in my top 20 as a 17-year-old in the Appy League. That’s pretty rare territory.

Amy: When teams trade international bonus $, does $ actually change hands or does the receiving end just have permission to spend more?
Keith Law: It’s permission to spend more. It’s like trading a draft pick – you don’t get the slot money associated with the pick, but you get the right to take another player, and your total bonus pool increases.

Robbie: Any thoughts on the pitchers the angels received in their two deadline deals?
Keith Law: The Boston guys are probably middle relievers at best. Sandoval is a spin-rate guy, probably a reliever too.

john: what did you think about the return for Leonys Martin in Willi Castro?
Keith Law: On top of this post, I have links to all of my trade writeups from this week, and that trade – I like Castro and explain why – is in the ‘other prospect deals’ post.

Mike: Hey Keith, I’m an Atlanta fan has barely seen Gausman throw. I remember the hype and breakout potential you and others have talked about. What do you think he has to change to reach the potential?
Keith Law: A consistent spot on the rubber (and thus delivery), and a better/more consistent slider. The first is easy, the second isn’t.

Kraig: Despite of adult age the whole time Gen Con has been in Indy I’m going for the first time this year. No real plans, just exploring but any tips/advice/suggestions on navigating around?
Keith Law: It’s pretty huge and thus overwhelming. If you just want to explore, the main show floor has booths of just about every major publisher where you can see demos or protoypes of new/upcoming games. There’s also a huge open gaming room next door, with some scheduled events/tournaments, and some places you can just find a game to join.

JD: Is the Chris Archer deal about this year or the coming years? Seems like a big haul to give up to just finish less out of the playoffs than they otherwise would have.
Keith Law: I thought both that and the Kela deal were more about 2019-20.

Ryan: Do 10-5 rights apply to trade waivers? What’s to stop Baltimore from letting Jones go to Philly via waivers and then a trade in the offseason where the prospects end up in BAL anyway for someone who would’ve been non-tendered?
Keith Law: This has been a debate with the union for as long as I have been in the business. I think they do apply – Jones could reject the assignment and/or file a grievance.

Pat: How many more boxes does Eloy have to check? Is this a service time game Rick Hahn is playing?
Keith Law: What service time game? If he’s not calling Jimenez up now, he’d have to wait until mid-April next year. That’s a long time to stall a guy’s development just to get an extra year of control at some point after the world ends.

Jeff: With everything that has happened this season in Washington, does Rizzo return in 2019?
Keith Law: I can’t see why not.

Bubbles: Good afternoon! I have a question about two players but what I’m asking is a broad question. Barring some injury, do you believe Nick Senzel and Luis Urias will both get 500+ PA in the MLB next season?
Keith Law: Senzel is already injured, so I have no idea what his outlook is for next year. Urias will.

kyle: There are a lot of Twitter and chat room tough guys, but has anyone ever come up to you at a book signing to tell you to stick to baseball?
Keith Law: Never. But many, many people at every signing thank me for *not* sticking to baseball.

john: I don’t have a question but I just want to say how disgusted I am with the Astros. This whole Osuna thing is gross and I know I shouldn’t be surprised but I guess I wanted to believe my favorite team wasn’t this shitty. I don’t know if Luhnow really thinks we’re all idiots but his attempts to justify it are ridiculous and insulting and the whole thing honestly makes me want to not watch them anymore this year.
Keith Law: I’m most bothered by the trade. I’m also bothered by the disingenuousness that accompanied it. Just fucking own it. “Yep, we traded for a guy who (very likely) assaulted a woman, because we think he’ll help us win another World Series.”

Dougie: The most likely outcome for Mitch Keller is what? Mid-rotation? Would you bet on more or less?
Keith Law: I don’t think that’s a likely outcome. He’s either better than that, or he’s in the pen because he never develops a third pitch.

Jeremy: What do you think of the Rangers adding almost exclusively pitching prospects in the draft and via trades? I know they’re a organization that has struggled developing pitching. They’re trying get as many spins at the roulette table they can in developing one, but does it seem too narrow-sighted?
Keith Law: Seems like it was a real organizational weakness coming into the year, so I’m not troubled by it.

Anon: A few weeks ago I attended a family wedding of a distant cousin that was about an hour and a half away. Once the processional started, I noticed the groom and all the groomsmen had boots emblazoned with the Confederate Flag. I was really bothered by this and even contemplated leaving, but because of circumstances decided against it, and just didn’t look down the rest of the ceremony or reception. It wasn’t until during the reception that we noticed they were also all carrying sidearms throughout the ceremony and reception. What would you have done in this situation?
Keith Law: I would have left. You don’t have to make a scene, or even tell anyone. I just would have walked out.

Alan: Blake Swihart suddenly is looking good defensively and hitting. Think Sox should continue to start him over Vazquez when he returns from injury?
Keith Law: Yes. Always been a Swihart fan, until this run of injuries put his career in doubt.

Greg: Do you think that the emergence of Gregory Polanco made Huntington comfortable with going all-in on this Pirates’ group? Aside from his horrid defense, he’s been hitting at a star-caliber level since June.
Keith Law: I’ve been fooled by Polanco before, but in general I’m a believer – I think I still talked him up in a chat here in May? – and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if that was part of NH’s thinking, especially that they could afford to move Meadows because Polanco might finally be becoming a star.

Kent: Huntington added Kela and Archer without surrendering Keller or Hayes. Huge win?
Keith Law: Solid deadline.

Andy: I’d like to get ahead of this. I was a dumb, teenage boy. I truly regret what I did, and I am in no way that person anymore. I purchased multiple Limp Bizkit albums.
Keith Law: I’m not sure you’re sufficiently penitent for your sins here.

Deke: You’ve mentioned how baseball is “work,” and in your off time you like to get away from work. Now that you’re doing board-game reviews, do you consider that more “work” than play? Are they less enjoyable now in general?
Keith Law: Aside from rare exceptions where I play a game for review purposes, but end up disliking it, no. It’s still fun, and the responsibilities are really light anyway.

Matt: Don’t think I saw a write-up of the Soria trade anywhere (please correct me if I’m wrong), was Medeiros a good return for the Sox?
Keith Law: That was in another wrap up piece. Medeiros is probably a lefty specialist.

Washington Nationals: Keith, any explanation for what the Nationals did by trading Kintzler to the Cubs, holding onto Harper, then DFA’ing Kelly? Is bringing up Suero really worth trading Kintzler, especially when the club is floundering around the .500 mark?
Keith Law: Supposedly they traded Kintzler for talking to a reporter about the clubhouse dynamic. I have no additional insight on that. Kelley more than earned his DFA, though.

Lucas: I had heard from a source internally that one of the reasons Pittsburgh felt okay in dealing Meadows is because they’re very happy about the progress Jason Martin has made this year. “While he doesn’t have Meadows upside, we felt the distance between the two combined with our current OF situation made Meadows expendable. Thoughts on Jason Martin?
Keith Law: Extra OF.

Dave: Who was the best prospect traded at the deadline?
Keith Law: Mejia.

JP: Biggest non-trade surprise? Harvey?
Keith Law: Not just a surprise, but nonsensical. The Reds absolutely should have traded him.
Keith Law: They can’t trade Swaggerty until October, and he can’t be a PTBNL (nor can any player they just drafted). So it’s not him.

Justin: Do Jordan Luplow, Jason Martin, or Bryan Reynolds strike you as particularly interesting these days? I’m curious if i can slap a “Pirates LF of the future” label on any of them now that Meadows isn’t in the picture.
Keith Law: Always been a Reynolds fan. Still not sure where the power is – but I’ve noted before that the Pirates in general don’t seem to develop power hitters, or more specifically, they don’t seem to get power from their guys who have some raw but don’t show it in games.

Ryan: Conforto, Rosario & to a lesser extent Dom Smith haven’t done much this year. Smith is SSS but has your opinion changed on Conforto or Rosario for their future?
Keith Law: No, esp with Conforto clearly not 100% physically. I hate how they’ve handled Smith. Rosario is just young.

Alex: What kind of upside does Luis Garcia have. Seems to be holding his own as 18 year old in high A.
Keith Law: Physically underdeveloped but more than everyday upside. Has blown past Antuna.

Brendan: Bellinger: has the league figured him out, or is this what he is with last year an aberration?
Keith Law: He turned 23 two weeks ago.
Keith Law: Like, guys come up, do well, struggle, make adjustments, rinse, repeat. If he’s 27 and still struggling, different story. A lot of hitters his age are still in the minors.

Matt: As a Tampa native I’m slightly biased, but what areas across the country do you find to have the best collection of amateur baseball talent?
Keith Law: Southern California is by far the strongest. Central Florida and Georgia are probably next. I think Texas is overrated for strength of talent – it’s dispersed over such a wide area and large population that it doesn’t match those other states.

AGirlHasNoName: Can you explain what to make of the Brewers infield going forward? None of Moustakas, Shaw or Schoop are shortstops, right?
Keith Law: Correct. I don’t know why Brewers fans were telling me Schoop will take over at shortstop. He was a shortstop and he was not good.

Orion: Can Harrison Bader be (or is he already) an above average regular in the Cardinals OF? Seems like one of those guys who has no eye popping tools but is average in everything, which makes for an above average total package.
Keith Law: Yes, fourth OF floor, everyday regular most likely, above average/non-star ceiling. And I think he’s ready.

ben: How do you personally maintain hope in today’s world?
Keith Law: There are many, many kind people in the world, doing kind things for others, in your life and in the broader world around us. I focus on that and try to be that way in my personal life too.

Rich: Really love my Anova…just have the Bluetooth. Should I have gotten the WiFi version? May have to gift mine. Seems like a smart idea to start the water an hour before I get home…what says you?
Keith Law: I have the bluetooth. Never needed the Wifi function myself.
Keith Law: Of course, I work at home. I get to do more things in the kitchen.

SeanE: Neal Huntington said the PTBNL in the Archer deal is a player of “significance”. Why would they wait to announce this 3rd piece?
Keith Law: Could be that the player in question is on the DL. Could be that the two sides haven’t settled on the player and have only agreed it will be 1 of N players on a list, although I don’t believe that is the case here. Not sure what other reasons there might be.

Shroud: Orioles fans are mad over not receiving multiple top 100 guys for their superstar pitcher…Kevin Gausman. They’re new to this “rebuilding” thing, huh
Keith Law: The O’s also dumped O’Day’s salary, which reduced the return in prospects.

Nick: Most underrated deal of the deadline?
Keith Law: That Cardinals-Cleveland prospect swap. No one cared because there were no major leaguers. You can just inject those trades right into my veins, though.

Seath: have you watched any of the Facebook exclusive games yet? What do you think of them? Do you think this is eventually where the game is/should head?
Keith Law: I have not. I don’t need fan commentary on the game … or any commentary, really. I’m just here for the baseball.

Dan: Kohl Stewart has put together some nice starts recently. Can he still become a viable starter?
Keith Law: He hasn’t, though. Still throws strikes with no out pitch.

Nolan: What’s your most memorable case of a fan base really sticking it to you for not thinking their fringe prospect was a future star? Junior Lake stands out to me, for some reason.
Keith Law: That was one. Lot from Cubs fans on Brett Jackson, too. Jays fans with Rowdy Tellez.

Matt: How much have Alec Hansen’s recent struggles impacted your projection of him?
Keith Law: Dude wasn’t healthy most of the year. It would be absurd to ignore that and just judge him on his performance without that context.

James: Do you see the O’s being the winners of the Victor Victor Mesa sweepstakes once he’s eligible? What can you tell us about him?
Keith Law: I know reports that they had a deal with him have been debunked. I’ll write something up when he signs.

Garrett: Were you surprised by Adell’s promotion to AA? His BB and K numbers aren’t too good.
Keith Law: I thought it was too quick from a performance level, not just from BB and K, but he wasn’t producing that well the last few weeks (actually his BB and K rates were up in July, everything else was down). But maybe they wanted to get him to a specific coach? Or away from certain parks? There can be non-obvious reasons for promotions with exceptional talents like Adell.

Drew: You saw Logan Davidson? Would love to hear your thoughts. Saw him this summer and didn’t see the hype myself
Keith Law: He looked bad, and so did just about all of the other top Cape hitters I saw last week, other than Bleday from Vanderbilt. The Cape talent in general was kind of awful.

John : 2014 ALCS contestants KC and Baltimore are now locked at the bottom of the league standings. Who do you believe reaches post season first
Keith Law: Orioles have done a lot more to turn the roster over. Royals’ system is well behind that, even with the big college pitching draft (which I as a regular attendee of Blue Rocks games greatly appreciate).

Chris: Given Harper’s relative struggles this season, what kind of contract would you offer him this offseason? Potential good buy low (if buy low is still $200M+)?
Keith Law: If he doesn’t finish strongly, look for Boras to try to do a Beltre/Boston pillow contract for him.

Rob: Padres MLB club starts seeing results in… 2020? Seems like 3-4 players called up early in the year 2019. Gore/Tatis/Baez in 2020?
Keith Law: If Tatis is okay post-injury – maybe Fall League? Please? can we get him and Vlad Jr? – then he’ll be up next year. Baez could be later in the year. Gore might be 2021, depending on how they build up his workload.

Nick: I know you were a fan of Mark Vientos coming into the draft last year. He is having a solid year so far in the Appy League. What type of player do you see him developing into? Is he a solid defender at 3B?
Keith Law: Small sample so far but I’m thrilled to see him showing some power too. Solid defender at third trending up. Very promising. I’ve said before but I think some of the results bear it out – their drafts are not the problem, and recently they’ve been quite good. Dunn has broken out. Peterson had a little dead arm deal but has been very good most of the season. Vientos looks great. I’m way in on Kelenic. Alonso is something. And from the international side Ronny Mauricio is getting a lot of buzz as a potential star. I know #lolmets is a thing because of the ownership situation but the outlook from their farm system is not bleak.

Brian: Hi Keith thanks for all your work! Only reason I’m an insider sub.. What is the rationale for MLB not allowing the trading of draft picks? The other major sports allow it.
Keith Law: In the 1980s MLB feared small-market teams would just sell/trade the picks rather than pay the exorbitant demands of drafted players who were looking for bonuses of … (checks notes) … $100,000.

Rick: Trea Turner seems to have made a heartfelt, tearful apology as well as vowing to work for organizations to go against bullying and such. Ready to forgive him?
Keith Law: His was the best apology yet from any of these players.

Nick Howard: What is my deal exactly? am I a non prospect, or still a chance?
Keith Law: Got the yips, not a prospect any more.

Steve: Could you explain why the international money that the O’s received as part of the Gausman trade was not part of your analysis? And what is T25 in regards to your Schoop tweet yesterday?
Keith Law: They didn’t receive international money; they received slots, described above. And that’s all that is – a slot, the right to spend money, not an actual player. How would you like me to evaluate that?
Keith Law: If you don’t know what T25 is, you might be pronouncing Schoop’s name incorrectly.

Chan: The Marlins decided to hold onto their three relievers who had trade value. Are you surprised? Should they have lowered their demand to retrieve at least something?
Keith Law: Unless the market was so saturated with similar relievers that they got garbage offers? I thought Yates would be next out of San Diego, but I don’t think they got any decent offers.

The Boxes Are Checked: Gut feeling- do Jimenez and/or Kopech debut in MLB this season?
Keith Law: Kopech in particular needs to come up this season. Let him face major league hitters and see if they force him to throw more strikes. He’s just going to blow AAA guys away the longer he’s down there.

Dave: Does the player to be named later in the PIT-TB deal most likely mean he was a 2018 draft pick and not been w/ PIT long enough to be traded yet?
Keith Law: Again, that’s prohibited.

Kevin: Apparently Tampa wouldn’t trade Archer to San Diego unless they got Paddack or Patiño. Is it safe to say Patiño has passed up guys like Baez and Quantrill in the Padres system? What’s Patiño’s ceiling?
Keith Law: Patiño has not passed Baez or Morejon or Lawson. He’s still got a lot of reliever risk too. Quantrill has regressed since that first summer.

Brian: It was great to meet you in Acton on Saturday. Thanks for coming out and answering questions. You discussed gausman and the orioles messing with his mound placement/delivery. Do you think ATL has the specific people in place to help gausman or is it more of any team has a better chance to help him than where he’s coming from?
Keith Law: Yes, I’ve thought Gausman would be a perfect change of scenery candidate for a while. Even getting to a new coaching staff without the baggage he’s had might help.

Dr. Bob: If I understand the rules correctly, the Reds will not get a compensating pick for Harvey when he leaves at the end of the season (he is a FA, right?). If that’s true, why in the world do they not trade him? They sent players to NY to get him so that he can help them finish this season not as far in fifth place as they otherwise might have been?
Keith Law: Right. I don’t understand not trading him.

SeanE: Couldn’t the Reds just move Harvey in August? His velo has ticked up significantly recently. If he has a few dominant starts could he maybe fetch more?
Keith Law: He can be claimed on waivers and then the Reds have no leverage in negotiations.

Mat: If you had to rank Edmonds, A. Jones, Lofton and Bernie Williams in a pecking order for the Veterans Committee (even though Andruw isn’t on it…yet), how would you rank.
Keith Law: Edmonds, Andruw, Lofton, Bernie, in that order. Edmonds would have made my ballot had I been a voter at the time.

Tony! Toni! Toné!: Just following up on my Swaggerty/PTBNL question. I know you technically can’t trade players in his situation, but isn’t that what a PTBNL is often used for? For involving guys in deals who can’t be officially traded yet.
Keith Law: You literally cannot trade a drafted player, even as a PTBNL, until after the World Series in his draft year. It’s colloquially called the Trea Turner rule.

John: So you’re saying you’d rather have Eloy in the majors for the rest of this season and next April instead of having him for the 2025 season? Why?
Keith Law: 2025? Where will you be then? What kind of team will the White Sox be at that point? Who’s the GM? The owner? Meanwhile, if you have a player whose development appears to require a promotion to the majors, you’re merely wasting time if you leave that guy in the minors. (I feel more strongly this way with pitchers, since projecting any pitcher to stay healthy for seven years is like playing roulette with a crooked croupier.)

Matt: Without looking at your book lists, have you read the Three Body Problem trilogy? I’ve never gotten into sci-fi, but the books are incredible, especially the scale of subject matter that it tackles and the big-picture issues it tackles. If you have read these, do you have any similar recommendations?
Keith Law: The first one. Very good, despite the weird unfolding-of-the-proton ending. But it didn’t compel me to continue either.

Matt: Did you read that article about hackers were able to hack voting booths in less than 2 hours? This seems…problematic.
Keith Law: I did. It is. Especially since there’s a foreign government that has a demonstrated interest in messing with our elections, and our own Administration thinks it’s just so darn cute.

Rich: Even though their talent is awful on the ML team, would you hang on to Andy Green, or should the Padres look for someone else to mentor the youth that will be coming up?
Keith Law: I like Green. He’s not part of the problem and I think when the roster improves and gets younger he’ll be part of the solution.

Anthony: Re. Keller: would you ever be comfortable projecting a fastball-curveball guy as a starter (even if changeup never comes) because curves tend to be platoon-neutral?
Keith Law: Fastball-breaking ball guys do not tend to be platoon-neutral.

JR: Why do teams with good records/teams that exceed expectations always tend to have good chemistry (per the media), while teams that disappoint/don’t play up to talent level have bad chemistry (also per the media)?
Keith Law: Because cognitive biases are everywhere.

Rex: Some people consistently beat the market. Just because you can’t do something doesn’t mean other people can’t.
Keith Law: The people who ‘beat the market’ in the last N years almost never beat the market again in the next N years. Maybe never.

Donald: Hey Keith, thanks for doing these chats. Last week, you said “xwOBA doesn’t work”, I’m not trying to argue it does and you are wrong, but I was just curious if you could elaborate on that a little more and explain why it doesn’t work.
Keith Law: I can’t find the link but someone – Russell Carleton, I think – showed that they don’t actually predict future wOBA (or whatever the stat is in the x-stat).

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Saw something yesterday how TB pitching coach Kyle Snyder, being a large, ex-pitcher himself at 6’8″, is a “savant at helping pitchers understand and control their bodies” and could be a huge help to Glasnow and helping him to learn how to better control his levers. Think that’s noteworthy at all?
Keith Law: I think it’s a delightful idea without proof or even evidence.

Aaron: Allard looked pretty crafty last night, even if the results weren’t great. Should I be worried about him missing enough bats?
Keith Law: Yes, if you want more than a 4th/5th starter. Averaged ~89, didn’t throw his CB as much as I expected.

Yuan: Just read your take on Tyler Austin being moved – do you think he still has a chance to redeem himself or is the inability to hit offspeed too much to overcome?
Keith Law: He hasn’t shown any adjustments to the slider yet. If he does, great, he can be a regular. If not, well, he can join the multitudes who never did figure it out.

mike sixel: How good can Alex Kiriloff be, and when could we see him in MN? thanks,
Keith Law: That kid’s a star. I think he’s going to make more than a few All-Star teams if he stays healthy.

JR: I know most of the anger/frustration with our current Pres is directed directly at him and his admin, but I’m shocked how many individuals are willing to carry out all his racist/hurtful policies (oftentimes with glee). I couldn’t grab a parent and deport them. I couldn’t pull a child away from a parent and send them to a separate facility. I just couldn’t do it, yet there are so many people who are willing to “just follow orders.” It really baffles me.
Keith Law: Seemingly ordinary people had no problem rounding up, torturing, and killing Jews in World War II. Seemingly ordinary people had no problem grabbing machetes and hacking their neighbors to death in Rwanda in the 1990s. All it takes is a good ‘othering’ by the people in charge. That’s why i want Twitter and Facebook and Youtube to cut the crap already and kick the neo-Nazis and conspiracy theorists off their sites.

Joel: I think you have referred to research regarding organic foods vs. traditional. And gmo/non gmo products. Do you have those links? Personal thoughts?
Keith Law: I’ve posted lots of those links over the years. There’s no difference between GM and non-GM foods. Your body has no idea if the sucrose came from GM sugar or not. It’s like an intelligence test for consumers – if you pay more for non-GM, or demand it, you failed.
Keith Law: Organic is another matter. It’s not healthier, not per se. There aren’t pesticide residues all over your non-organic produce. But organic agriculture may be better for soil health, water retention, even carbon sequestration in the soil. And animals raised for organic meat, dairy, or eggs can’t be given antibiotics, which is a real and critical public health issue.

Justin : Are Moniak, Rutherford, Ray anywhere close to your top 100 as of now?
Keith Law: No, no, possibly.

Mike: At this point if any player gets caught with old offensive tweats or anything else bad on social media they should immediately fire their agent. It’s not an excuse for the behavior but how can an agent of competence not go through every social media account from day 1 and make sure there is nothing there?
Keith Law: How could they blame their agents for what they tweeted themselves?

Jason: The rumored SD package for Archer of Patino/Hedges/Renfroe — If that was on the table, SD would/should have jumped on it, right?
Keith Law: I would have done that, yes. I don’t believe that is accurate.

Scott of Lincolnshire: So Baez…………he might finish in top 5 of MVP this year. I recall him taking forever to heat up at every level of promotion in the minors too. Sustainable? Probably not, but i can’t quit him. Ever
Keith Law: Why would you quit him? He might be the most fun player to watch in the majors right now.

Marissa: Hi Keith. Kind of random but I am wondering your thoughts on Plawecki because I know that you were higher on him than d’Arnaud in the past. He had a good ending to last season and has been pretty average in terms of catchers this season. Do you see him being a starter still or not really?
Keith Law: Yep, a regular, not more than average at peak, but probably about that for a while.

NYTT: Re: Veterans Committee. If Andruw didn’t have the domestic violence incident, would he be ahead of Edmonds?
Keith Law: I feel better about Edmonds’ career than Andruw’s, since the latter was basically done at 31.

Spencer: Florial has crushed since coming back. SSS but where do you think he should be playing now?
Keith Law: Right where he is.

TF Fredrik: Do you find it interesting how all american sports are set up as a type of, not sure right word but, “socialism” for the benefit of smaller markets? Reverse order draft, revenue sharing, salary cap, compensation picks…etc. What do you think a completely free market in baseball would look like?
Keith Law: Totally unfettered could result, I suppose, in teams operating their own huge farm systems and hoarding players, a bit like Rickey did with the early Cardinals teams before other clubs caught on. But a more free market wouldn’t necessarily steer all talent to big-market teams because they have limited roster spots and playing time to hand out. I’d love to see a modified draft that made the top 10-15 players in each draft class free agents.

Kevin: I am an ESPN Insider member specifically to read your work, and very much enjoy reading your comment. As a Padres fan I understand your argument for Trevor Hoffman not being a Hall of Famer, but was disappointed that you would tear him down during his induction. Why not just move on from it now that he was already voted in?
Keith Law: I didn’t tear him down. Simply not true.

Seth: Is Dereck Rodriguez for NL rookie of the year at this point or at least well in the conversation?
Keith Law: It’s pretty clearly Juan Soto right now.

Tom C: Re: the seemingly ordinary people. One of my favorite movie quotes of all time is from Tommy Lee Jones in Men in Black: “A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky animals, and you know that.”
Keith Law: It’s a great line because it’s accurate.

Seth: Joey Bart is tearing it up so far. Is he above the level he is at or is there anything to make from his performance so far
Keith Law: He’s a college dude in short-season ball. It doesn’t tell us anything.

Andy: Has there ever been a draftee who demanded a no trade clause?
Keith Law: That is no longer permitted. NTCs mean major league contracts and teams can’t give draftees major league deals.

Chris: Has Richie Martin regained some prospect status this season? He’s hitting at least well enough for a shortstop.
Keith Law: He’s not a good shortstop though.

scrapper: I’m in a Strat o Matic league and I traded a few weeks back for Osuna in a deadline deal. Should I feel bad? Obviously it’s not real but I still wondered
Keith Law: That depends on how many woman fans your Strat team has, I suppose.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for reading, as always. I’m off to Gen Con tomorrow, so unless there’s a surprise trade my next Insider content will come next week, along with a chat next Thursday. I hope to see or even game with some of you in Indianapolis!

My Insider post on the Eovaldi, Andriese, and Oh trades is now up. Also, I have a new board game review up at Paste, covering Istanbul the Dice Game, which strips down the original Istanbul (an amazing game from 2014) to something quicker, simpler, but also more driven by chance.

Keith Law: You left all the lights on, but there’s nobody home. Klawchat.

Nick L: Is this peak Javy Baez? It almost feels like even a little more discipline moves him dangerously close to MVP discussions.
Keith Law: I think this is peak Baez; it’s unlikely (albeit not impossible … just highly improbable) that he finds plate discipline now.

Chris: Hi Keith. Looking forward to your book signing this weekend in MA. What do you think about how the Red Sox made out in the Eovaldi for Beeks trade? Thanks.
Keith Law: That post just went up (Insider).

Frank: The Jays traded a reliever for what MLB Pipeline says is the Rockies 13th & 24th best prospects. Would those qualify as lottery prospects, or is the Rockies system good enough that those are a little better than that? Side question: what would you expect the Jays to get for Happ?
Keith Law: See the link I just posted.

Arnold: Actual SI FB post earlier this week: “Mets Prospect Tim Tebow out for season.” Prospect??? Maybe fate favors the Mets since this means Tebow won’t be blocking any actual prospects for the rest of the season, but the Mets are gonna force this charade on us next season, aren’t they?
Keith Law: There are many people, even within this industry, who treat “prospect” and “minor leaguer” as synonyms. They are not.

Eddie: Wander Franco has looked great so far, can you think of another J2 signee that you rated so highly in his 1st season?
Keith Law: Yes, several, including Sano & Vlad Jr.

Dana: Do you fault Gary Sanchez for not hustling considering he reaggravated his injury in the first inning? I feel like he’s getting unfairly crushed here.
Keith Law: I wish Latino there was Latino some sort of Latino reason why Latino everyone is so Latino quick to criticize Latino certain players for not Latino hustling.

Mark: It seems the Rays take high floor players in trades, and the Padres have a rule 5 roster problem approaching, so could this explain the Padres and Archer rumor? The Rays might be willing to take some of the players the Padres aren’t going to be able to protect in addition to some premium talent. They made a similar deal in the past (can’t remember the details) where Boxberger, Andriese, and Forsythe were the return who have been nice players, but at the time were seen as high floor useful guys. Thanks!
Keith Law: Is the Padres’ rule 5 apocalypse that close? I think they’re a year-plus away from that. I don’t hate this idea like the Hosmer (-0.7 fWAR … but TEH LEADERSHIP) deal, but it’s still not really ideal for the Padres unless they’re somehow doing this without trading any of their top 10 prospects.

Ike: If you had your choice for a franchise player, who would you take between Acuna, Soto or Vlad jr?
Keith Law: Acuna. Or Tatis Jr.

Rich: Any advice for a first-time author? I am about to start writing after years of research. What were some of your biggest stumbling blocks with SB? Also, I hope to make it this Saturday in Acton at the Silver Unicorn!
Keith Law: I wrote that all pretty quickly, so I’m not sure I’d have stumbling blocks to offer. Just carve out dedicated time to write each day, because it’s easy to procrastinate on a project like that with long deadlines.

addoeh: To continue the discussion from the last Klawchat, is Creed worse than Nickelback and would positive comments about either “music” group cause a prospect to fall due to “dumb social media comments”?
Keith Law: My warning to all players at any level: If your walkup music is by Post Malone, I don’t care how good you are, I am slapping a fucking NP label on you and never looking back.

Joe: Keith, are there any good reasons why Ced Mullins and Dj Stewart are still in AAA given the Orioles’ struggles?
Keith Law: Is there a burning reason why either should be up? These aren’t elite prospects.

Joe: Keith, it seems like the Orioles hung on to Britton too long like they did with Machado. Would you have traded him after his huge season in 2016 even though the Orioles had just made the playoffs? His value was never higher and Chapman and Miller were just traded for huge hauls.
Keith Law: I would have, and I think I said so at the time, but it’s also a bit unfair to criticize them on Britton because he got hurt during the offseason and scotched any chance they could trade him then.

Aaron C.: What do you do if you’re Billy Beane/David Forst? (1) Hope the A’s offense continues to make Cahill/B. Anderson/E. Jackson look serviceable? (2) Trade for a back-end starter? (3) Trade some top-tier prospect(s) for a front-end starter? Thanks!
Keith Law: More like (2). Definitely not (3).

Bob: I know Isaac Paredes isn’t likely a SS, but he hit well in the FSL at 19 and Det must think highly of him to promote him to AA as a teenager. How good can he be as a 2B or 3B?
Keith Law: Above-average regular at 2b or 3b, definitely not a shortstop. Little bit of stat-scouting going on around him – good prospect, not an elite one.

Bob: After a rough start to the year in AA, Brent Rooker has been dominant for nearly 2 months. What’s his upside?
Keith Law: Solid-average regular.
Keith Law: I guess maybe a 55, above-average regular. Probably 1b. He is a grade 80 tweeter though.

Bob: Hans Crouse has had a couple recent 7 IP/double digit K starts. Does he have front of the rotation upside or more a reliever for you?
Keith Law: Delivery is reliever. Mentality is probably reliever too. Stuff would let him start.

mike sixel: Some Twins’ fans I interact with think the team should sign Escobar to a QO if they can’t extend him. Thoughts on 18MM for Eduardo Escobar? Admittedly, they have very little payroll committed for next year….but, 18MM?
Keith Law: Hardest of passes.

Bob: Kevin Kramer has followed up his AA breakout with a very similar AAA season. Can he be an above average regular?
Keith Law: In my opinion, no.

PhillyJake: In your write up of Mitch Keller, you wrote “If he finds that third pitch — better feel for the changeup, maybe even a splitter — he has No. 1 starter upside.” On June 28th, the day after Keller was promoted to Indy (AAA), Tim Williams of Pirates Prospects wrote about how his improvement in his secondary pitches lead to the promotion. I realize that ranking him 24th overall means you don’t hate him (Or the Pirates!), but I’m wondering when you’ll get a chance to see him again to see with your own eyes?
Keith Law: I have seen him – I just saw him – and what I wrote is completely accurate.

Bob: Have you had a chance to see Daniel Johnson in Harrisburg? He has not repeated his A ball power numbers, but his overall game looks solid. Can he be a starter or more a 4th OF?
Keith Law: Extra OF for me, some small chance of a regular.

MIKEPCFL: Just a quick thank you for sharing about the loss of your family cat and how your daughter handled it. It was very touching. Never just stick to baseball.
Keith Law: You’re welcome – thank you, all of you, for reading and reaching out after I sent that newsletter.

Harold: Was the White Sox’ 2017 draft as good as it appears with Sheets, Gonzalez, Hentzman, Tyler Johnson, Battenfield, etc. all doing well?
Keith Law: I just wrote up Sheets and Gonzalez … Sheets in particular looks bad, and bear in mind they took a lot of college guys who *should* do well in the low minors. Shame about Berger, though – he seemed like the kind of guy who could finish his first year in AA or higher.

Moe Mentum: Favorite band or musician that your wife was into before you were?
Keith Law: We have wildly different tastes in music. There isn’t much overlap other than bands we both liked from the ’80s.

CD: Ramon Laureano has had a nice bounce back season in AAA. Do you think he can defend well enough to be an average-ish regular in CF?
Keith Law: Astros tried to alter his swing – launch angle! – and it wrecked his 2017. I think definite fourth OF who can play all three spots, maybe 10-15% chance of a regular. I particularly like him as a player, just the way he plays, not the biggest tools but enough athleticism and a really good idea of what he’s doing.

C-Note: Who is the 2nd best player in baseball?
Keith Law: Trout is 1 and Mookie is 2. You can start your arguments at 3.

Seath: Do you have any other plans while in MA? Going to the RedSox-Twins series? I would have loved to go to your book event.
Keith Law: Nope, having dinner with my best friend from grade school and then driving home.

Concerned citizen: Why don’t other countries on par with the U.S. have the same amount of vaccines that are required?
Keith Law: Ask them. The science on this is quite clear.

SeanE: Will Craig has put up solid power numbers but with a corresponding drop in BA and OBP. Can he reach a happy medium and become a productive MLB 1b?
Keith Law: Don’t think so – more like a below-average regular/bench piece.

Jerry: Is Josh James a legit prospect. Seems to have really taken a step forward. Is he a high strikeout mid rotation guy?
Keith Law: Huge arm, has touched 99, bad delivery, command way behind control. Lot of relief risk. I have not seen him myself.

Neal Huntington: Do I put together a package of prospects to add a starting pitcher for the stretch run or was the recent streak just smoke and mirrors?
Keith Law: I would not advocate buying; there are nine other teams competing for the same playoff spots, and I don’t think their true talent level is better than their two divisional rivals.

Kevin: What kind of return could Carlos Rodon catch for the White Sox? Since there are not too many young, controllable SP on the market and they are still a few years away from competing, should the Sox look to maximize his value?
Keith Law: I don’t think the value would be that great for a guy who is less than a year off significant shoulder surgery and who hasn’t had a full season of sustained production.

SeanE: Any chance that Oniel Cruz can stick at SS or is his future at 3b? Is he a candidate for your top 100 next year?
Keith Law: No chance of SS. I’m not sure he can stay on the dirt – dude is like a skyscraper out there.

Dave: Do you have any recs for a good vegetarian cookbook?
Keith Law: Nothing I absolutely love; the best cookbook I have for vegetables is Nigel Slater’s Tender, which is veg-focused but not truly vegetarian. I own one of Isa Chandra Moskowitz’s books (Isa Does It!), which is vegan, but most of the recipes don’t work without significant modifications – I don’t think anyone tested them.

Jack: Does Haseley adding a leg kick, and subsequent success(SSS ik) potentially increase his value at the deadline?
Keith Law: No, pure SSS. Swing has been awful.

David: Have you ever played much chess?
Keith Law: Yes but I’m not very good at it.

Jeremy: I just wanted to reach out and say that I appreciate your willingness to discuss things outside baseball. While I may often disagree with your positions on some matters, I enjoy being able to read other opinions and points of view and discuss them in a civilized manner.
Keith Law: Thank you. That is also why I moderate the comment sections here so strictly – I would rather have a smaller but more civil discussion by keeping anyone seeking to comment in bad faith out.

Harry: Which Under Armour players impressed you the most? Did you write this event up?
Keith Law: There was zero chance I was taking a trip when my daughter needed me home like that.

Trevor: Thoughts on Forrest Whitley being rewarded with an invite to the Futures Game after serving a 50-game suspension?
Keith Law: Not great, Bob, but he ended up getting hurt anyway. MLB was in a tight spot – he’s the best RHP prospect in baseball, and not inviting him would have been weird, too.

Joe: Was there a time in your early days of scouting when you would look past flaws in order to defend guys you essentially “discovered?”
Keith Law: I’ve never discovered anyone. I go see players scouts or execs have identified for me as players to see.

Gerry : Beyond Rhys Hoskins’ obvious offensive talent, when scouting a player, do scouts really take into account leadership qualities as a tipping point for player A over player B, who be more high risk? Thanks KLaw
Keith Law: Not really. I think people tend to retcon that stuff on to a guy after he turns out to be good (or just gets paid a lot).

GEO: My condolences on your loss of Bailey; I once had a black cat of the same name. It’s a difficult decision to have to make. May I ask how you knew he was ill in the first place? They seldom tell you when they are in pain. Or was it uncovered in a regular vet exam?
Keith Law: That very afternoon, he was howling like he’d never done before, and that was the first sign. If you read my latest newsletter (tinyletter.com/keithlaw) I tell the whole story. It was shocking because he seemed fine just days before.

Joshua: I know it was a small, pretty inconsequential trade, but is there anything to be excited about with Jacob Condra-Bogan in the Goodwin trade? Thanks.
Keith Law: No. There were some strange claims that he was throwing up to 99, but he’s not. He’s a great story but I have 90-94 from scouts.

Doug: I think Buster might need to take a breath. What’s the problem with Preller checking in on controllable pitchers?
Keith Law: I agreed with Buster’s point – Archer’s window doesn’t coincide that well with when the Padres’ young core should be in the majors and producing.

Nate: You’ve mentioned the Cards Hudson having the look of a reliever. Is the basis stuff, mechanics, makeup, other?
Keith Law: Yes.
Keith Law: I don’t know about his makeup and can’t think of times that pushed a guy to relief.

xxx(yyy): Any specific recommendations for a Game Night with other couples (so not OVERLY difficult to understand rules/games)?
Keith Law: Something like Coup, Love Letter, One Night Werewolf (if you have 5+ people), Crossfire … social deduction games that move fast, don’t have a lot of rules, work well with alcohol.

xxx(yyy): Who ends up the better MLBer of the Rangers L Tavares or J.P. Martinez?
Keith Law: Taveras for me. He was on my top 50; Martinez wasn’t and wasn’t a consideration.

JB: CJ Chatham seems to have bounces back after the injury. Reason to be optimistic or is he old for high-A? Thanks!
Keith Law: Saw him. Like the glove/hands a lot. Bat is light.

Mark Antoch: Over/Under HR’s if you give Tyler O’Neill if the Cards gave him 550 AB’s in the majors next year? He’s a beast
Keith Law: 28 homers and a sub-.300 OBP.

Bryan: I always forget to show up at chat times, so I just wanted to say thanks for always being helpful and answering random questions on Twitter. But since I’m supposed to ask a question here — were you playing Pandemic Legacy? How is it going/did it go? (we’re about to embark on Season 2, and I’m already stressed out about it!)
Keith Law: We played it 5 times, I think, and liked it, but we’re often bringing other games to the table. Charterstone also sort of leapfrogged it in our legacy game queue.

Nate: Better OF prospect, Pache or Waters?
Keith Law: One was on my top 50…

Steve Culver: While they are all important, is there a particular race you are rooting for in the Nov elections? Really need to flip the house.
Keith Law: Not especially. They’re all important, and I just want to see more pro-science people in government at all levels.

Brian: What has happended in the last decade or so that has helped improve these 19-21 year olds succeed so early in MLB? Before trout and Harper, i dont recall seeing so many young players contribute so early at the major league level (excluding JR and Andrew Jones).
Keith Law: They’re a lot more physically developed now at 19-20 than I remember them being ten years ago, but I don’t know if the data on their performances bears out the impression we both have that they’re succeeding sooner.

Pete: Is Cornelius Randolph still prospect-worthy? 21yrs old at AA. Shows flashes
Keith Law: Not really. young but showing nothing, and he’s a 4 in LF.

Joshua: Do upcoming “mid-tier” free agents like Gio Gonzalez and Daniel Murphy hope they get traded so that they don’t have compensation attached to them in the offseason? Thanks, Keith.
Keith Law: Probably – it seems to hit them worse than it does top-tier guys, as you’d expect.

Mundo: What are your thoughts on Jonathan Loaisiga?
Keith Law: Love him if healthy, but he hasn’t stayed healthy. Mid-rotation upside, reliever downside.

Mark Antoch: Are you watching any HBO shows? Succession or Sharp Objects?
Keith Law: I finished S1 of the Leftovers. No interest in Succession.

addoeh: Favorite music video from the 80’s?
Keith Law: It’s tough to beat “Thriller,” although counting the whole 20 minutes is probably cheating.

Jesse B: Have you seen or heard anything about Nate Lowe to think the breakout is for real?
Keith Law: Saw him in DC. Slugger without defensive value. He’s something, not a star.

Ridley Kemp: Luis Rengifo is rocketing through the Angels’ system this year with some silly looking numbers (.316/.420/.484) with more walks than strikeouts. Have you had a chance to see him, or have you heard anything about him? He was totally off my radar coming in to this year.
Keith Law: I have heard solid utility type. Not a shortstop, maybe a 2b-of type who can fill in at short (not that he’ll do that with Andrelton there). Has played in some very good hitters’ parks this year too.

Doug: Which of the four Missions’ pitchers hits the bigs first? Paddack, Quantrill, Nix, or Logan?
Keith Law: Nix then Paddack.

John: Any non-fiction book recs from the last 12-24 months? Looking for a gift for my Dad’s birthday and he loves NF!
Keith Law: Killers of the Flower Moon or Evicted.

Andy: Could Mookie have been an elite fielding 2B?
Keith Law: Yes. I’m not sure there’s a position where Mookie couldn’t be an elite fielder.

paul: love your work. question about the metropolitans. with cespedes out indefinitely should the mets trade degrom and thor? as a fan I almost think I might just stop watching baseball if they do. if all the players you cheer and root for get traded prematurely or hurt (david wright) and you have terrible ownership (also a redskins fan so its a double ball kick) what’s the point?
Keith Law: The franchise should trade them, but with no clear direction or single decision-maker right now, they should wait to hire a full-time GM and then make those deals. Doing it now, with a potentially restricted market (more teams likely to be buyers in December than July), probably reduces your return.

Adam: Should Touki be in the Braves pen now?
Keith Law: No. that would be counterproductive.

Jax : Is it 50/50 that Zack Collins stays behind the plate?
Keith Law: It’s like 10/90, or maybe less.

Esteban : How likely is it that the Wilpon’s are forced to sell the team? And are there any potential owners out there that would bring excitement to the team? Coming from a Mets fan
Keith Law: I think next to zero chance. They only did this with McCourt when he was (supposedly) about to miss payroll.

John: Do you think we see a multi-inning relief pitcher in a fireman-type role put up 100 IP in the next 5 years? (strictly RP – 0 start guys – have put up even 100 IP since 2010)
Keith Law: Would you consider a guy who makes 1-5 starts still a multi-inning reliever? I’m okay with that. The guy you’re describing would have to be capped at something like 50 appearances a year and we haven’t seen that in … 20 years?

ColinMoran: What do you think of Seth Lugo as an under the radar acquisition as a starter. Small sample but very good xwOBA as a starter.
Keith Law: xwOBA doesn’t work. Lugo’s interesting, more likely a reliever – get him and have him throw that CB a ton.

JJ: Did the Cardinals’ front office screw the pooch with Carson Kelly? Should they try to trade him now, even though his value has declined? I can’t see any way he takes any playing time from Yadi Molina over the next two plus seasons — he’s got more job security than a governor’s brother-in-law.
Keith Law: Could still trade him now/this winter. Everybody needs catching.

Troy: What is the best restaurant in the nation you’ve eaten at?
Keith Law: Juniper & Ivy in San Diego. Would also nominate Monteverde in Chicago, Cotogna in San Francisco, PYT in Los Angeles, Rose’s Luxury in DC, Five & Ten in Athens GA, Husk in Nashville/Charleston, and of course Pizzeria Bianco in Phoenix.

Dave: (Six Seasons and Root to Leaf are both really solid and current vegetarian cookbooks)
Keith Law: I will check these out.

Harry: Kodi Medeiros headed to the White Sox for Soria. Reactions?
Keith Law: I have never bought into Medeiros as anything more than a LH specialist.

Jesse B: Daz Cameron looks way better in AA than he did in High A, does this have anything to do with the two different leagues or is he just getting better?
Keith Law: FSL can be rough on guys with just so-so power. Aaron Judge power, you’re fine. Less than that, might be rough.

Tom C: Sorry about your cat, but I wanted to ask – was that the one that got stuck in the wall a while ago?
Keith Law: That’s him! Good memory. Bailey was a sweet cat but not the brightest bulb in the chandelier.

Simon: Jhailyn Ortiz….real deal or just a guy?
Keith Law: I am completely sold on the bat. I am far from sold that he can play LF.

Bob Nutting: Would Kramer and Newman (not the Seinfeld guys) be and upgrade over Mercer and Harrison? Seems to me they would at least be comparable and I could save mega $. What is not to like?
Keith Law: I’d be OK with this, assuming you think you could deal the two veterans for something useful.

Zihuatanejo: Why is the hit/power/speed/glove/arm scouting rubric still widely used for position players? It always seemed to me that it improperly suggested an equivalence between differently-valued tools.
Keith Law: It’s a useful framework, but the bigger problem is averaging the five grades, or otherwise pretending that, say, speed is as important as hit or power.

Drew: Is Dillon Tate the most promising prospect the O’s have acquired so far?
Keith Law: Diaz is.

Troy: How did you and Curt Schilling get along when he worked at ESPN.
Keith Law: Actually quite well.

Scott Rolan: Am I a Hall of Famer?
Keith Law: yes, but you will have to spell your name correctly to get the 200 points.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Kelenic made your top 50 update but was #6 on your draft board behind Bohm and Swaggerty, who didnt end up making the list. Why the bump up after just a few weeks of pro ball?
Keith Law: Is that OK with you? I didn’t realize I needed to adhere strictly to the draft board. We get more data on players and pro scouts get their first looks at guys once they sign.
Keith Law: I spoke to scouts who saw all three players you mentioned.

Ridley Kemp: Did you see the recent article on Cohl Furey and the quest to find the Grand Unified Theory using obscure algebra instead of by bashing particles together? If not, it’s a heady read (and it makes me a little ill to think some of our top minds are seriously considering busking to further their work):
Keith Law: Yes, this was in my latest Saturday links post … but I won’t pretend I understood the math either.

James: Would you be opposed to a “prospect roundtable” broadcast of yourself and other experts who do lists, such as Callis, Mayo, Sickles, BA staffers, etc, and arguing your lists with each other? Personally I’d pay money to see it.
Keith Law: Mayo and I have discussed doing something like this with Jim for years but could never get all sides to agree. The three of us get along quite well, even though I think readers think we’re rivals of some sort.

Matt : If the Yankees end up in the WC game would you give any thought to them starting anyone other than Severino and rely on the bullpen heavy so they can pitch him in game 1 against the Sox or Astros?
Keith Law: Yes, but that takes some serious stones to actually do it.

Joshua: Is Carter Kieboom a realistic option for the Nats opening day 2019 starting second baseman? Thanks.
Keith Law: I think that’s too optimistic.

Braised Short Ribs: Come back to us, Keith!
Keith Law: I miss you, man. I really do.

Stephen: Take on S1 of the Leftovers?
Keith Law: Amazing. Extremely well-acted across the board. Fascinating themes. Thought the season finale was clumsy, though.

Nick: Any concerns about David Peterson’s struggles in Hi-A? Reports are he has been getting hit hard since the promotion.
Keith Law: And his stuff is off a little too – dead arm, maybe? I’m hoping it’s nothing serious. He was straight dealing for almost three months, with stuff/reports to match.

James: Do you think the wrong Lowe played in the Futures game? I’m partial to Brandon – agree?
Keith Law: Same.

Marshall MN: In regard to TV shows, I give my highest recommendation to the German TV show “Dark” on Netflix.
Keith Law: Thank you. I think someone else rec’d that. Or maybe it was you and you’re just relentless?

Todd Boss: Strasburg to DL: is it officially wave the white flag time in DC? Their comp pick for Harper is almost useless thanks to poor cap management; do they dare make the trade and admit complete failure? Gio, Murphy maybe even Wieters might have trade value?
Keith Law: I could go either way with this. Yeah, if they sell, they could potentially add a lot of talent – if there are buyers for Harper or Murphy. But they’re also a lot better on paper than their record, and the teams ahead of them have both overachieved a lot. If they decide to stand pat, I won’t criticize them.

Joshua: In the past you’ve rated Luis Garcia below Yasel Antuna, is this still how you’d rate them? Thanks.
Keith Law: I rated them just once, but Garcia has moved way past Antuna, whose body apparently has gone way backwards, showing no twitch or athleticism this summer.

Brad: Thanks for the idea to read the Hugo Award winners. Any chance of going back to any other Sci-Fi/Horror books? I’ve just started Name of the Wind (Book 1 of the Kingkiller Chronicle) and it’s really good so far! Thanks for the great work
Keith Law: I’m reading non-Hugo winners too – I have The Fall of Hyperion in my suitcase right now.

Adam: I live ten minutes from Pizzeria Bianco and have still never been there
Keith Law: What is wrong with you?

Matt : Funny how republicans hate socialism but are somehow okay with a $12B handout to farmers being altered by Trump’s crazy trade war.
Keith Law: I pointed out to someone on Twitter who was decrying universal health care as “socialism” (not accurate) that we have seen actual ideas that resemble socialism from this administration – you named one, and the proposal to nationalize coal plants was another – than far more than the philosophy of providing health care for all citizens, which research indicates will lead to a more productive populace and greater economic growth, has to be.
Keith Law: People have been using “socialism” as a pejorative for economic ideas they dislike at least since I was in high school, probably back to McCarthyism. Socialism is a failure. That does not mean that laissez-faire capitalism is the correct solution for every policy problem.

Nate: Would you call up Lazardo to be a pen piece down the stretch and, possibly, in the postseason?
Keith Law: I would not.

Brandon Nimmo: Any interest in writing about politics? Love reading your takes on Twitter.
Keith Law: ESPN wouldn’t allow it, and I’d have to spent a LOT more time reading about those topics to be even close to educated enough to really write about it. It’s one thing to tweet; it’s another entirely to ask someone to pay you to write thousand-word columns that offer cogent arguments.

Jack: Do you think it is just my Philly fandom that I think there is a real possibility that trout comes to Philly when his contract is up? Middleton seems like he wants a splash.
Keith Law: I’m sure Middleton does … and so does every other owner with cash.

Brandon Nimmo: Whoever acquires Zack Wheeler is going to look really smart aren’t they? I just hope the Mets get more than RHP relief prospects.
Keith Law: There is no way I’m taking Wheeler if Woolsey isn’t in the deal too.

Jim: How good is Azul?
Keith Law: I loved it. Best game of 2017 for me. Easy to pick up, plays a little differently each time.
Keith Law: Plays well with 2, 3, or 4 too.

Mike: Does Brendan Rodgers have superstar potential?
Keith Law: Yeah, but more likely a solid 55.

Amy: Wouldn’t Mookie have more value as a 2B? If Pedrioa is done, why not move him to 2B, benintendi to CF, JBJ right, JDM left? Wouldn’t that maximize the lineup?
Keith Law: Sure, if Pedroia can accept the demotion.

Darryl: What is an appropriate age for considering travel ball? I chuckle at the parents who think a kid needs to be on display as a 9 y/o. Always thought anything before high school was a waste of money, time and potential abuse of an arm, but it may be my old school thinking that is getting in the way of things…
Keith Law: I tell parents in my neighborhood that it’s fine for their kids to play travel ball as long as they’re not being asked to fork out hundreds of dollars for events, and as long as they’re making sure their kids who pitch are following PitchSmart guidelines (lord knows the coaches don’t care). Playing more is good. Just don’t fool yourself into thinking you’re advancing his future just by paying more for high-profile events.

Brian: Would you mind clarifying what “Mentality is probably reliever too” means in reference to Hans Crouse?
Keith Law: He pitches like he wants to shove the ball down the hitter’s throat. I love it. And sometimes that kind of guy stays a starter (Scherzer comes to mind). Most end up relievers. It was a compliment, though.

Vladdy & Eloy: Please please please, don’t rank either of us #1 on your next prospect list! Muchas gracias!
Keith Law: Seriously. I don’t believe in hexes, curses, or other superstitions, but I can’t believe Tatis got hurt within hours of me listing him as #1. Hoping he and Vlad Jr. come to Fall League!

Nick L: It looks like Miguel Amaya is certainly the best Cubs prospect, but how good could he be? Do you see him as a top 75 prospect?
Keith Law: He’s a top 100 guy, I feel pretty confident about that. He is their #1 prospect, easily.

Josh: Do you ever see a point where the current ownership of the A’s spends like the average MLB team? Seems like a new stadium is just an excuse. If the Warriors are able to spend and be successful across the parking lot, why can’t the A’s do more?
Keith Law: If they spend more now, it undercuts their claims that they need a new stadium (which they do – not that i think the city should pay for it, but they do need one). They have a strong disincentive.

Devon: Hi Keith. How has your anxiety been? Also, how is it when you travel? My symptoms tend to get worse. Any tips? Thanks!
Keith Law: Thank you for asking. I’ve been pretty good the last few weeks; it’s always higher leading up to the draft. The vacation helped, once we were on the plane.

KO: What is your favorite Cape League Park to watch a game at?
Keith Law: I can tell you my least favorite is Wareham.

BE: Will there be any big names at the August deadline, or was last year just an anomoly?
Keith Law: Last year was an anomaly.

Chip: What’s the top of next year’s draft looking like? I know it’s all highly subject to change, but wondering if there’s a generational talent or at least a Mize up their for the O’s
Tom: Why is Raimel Tapia in the majors if he’s not getting any playing time? Seems like a waste.
Keith Law: Very weak college pitching crop. Adequate HS crop. College bats are good not great. Overall looks like a down year.
Keith Law: I agree on Tapia, although no hitter is learning anything by hitting in Albuquerque either.

Jim: How much would Shin-Soo Choo help the phillies lineup? What would be the cost? Thanks, love your blog.
Keith Law: Does he fit them at all? Probably needs to DH. Their corner OF are both LHB.

Mike: Is there any valid reasons pitchers can’t run hard on groundballs when it appears they will be out?
Keith Law: Yeah, the risk of serious injury on something totally stupid.

Jackie: It used to be that 300 wins, 3K strikeouts, 3,000 hits, or 500 HR were automatic qualifiers for the HOF. Do you think there are any benchmarks for voters these days?
Keith Law: 3000 hits probably still gets you in unless you have the PED stain upon you. The pitching benchmarks have fallen, as they should.

Pat D: Still interested in seeing The Happytime Murders?
Keith Law: Yep. That and Black Klansman are the two films I’m most looking forward to right now.

bartleby: please explain to me why Jose Reyes and Juan Bautista are getting playing time.
Keith Law: #LOLMets?

Bredin: Is Gavin Lux a top 100 guy? Could you just give us your thoughts on him in general as well? Thank you, sir.
Keith Law: I’m very pleased to see his progress this year, although he’s still a cipher against LHP, and I don’t know how much of his power is the Cal League and how much is that the Dodgers try to optimize every prospect’s launch angle. He can play short, though, and his hit and eye tools are already there. Regular for me with lots of potential for more.

Salzer: I love me some Bo Bichette. Has his stock taken a hit at all or is the lower average just normal growing pains?
Keith Law: I just ranked him as highly this month as I had in the winter. Still quite young for double-A, too.

Dennis S: Is there any way the Dodgers sign Machado, move him to second or third base with Seager back or would that just cripple their overall player budget?
Keith Law: Seems like they’ll be outbid, given their general philosophy on free agents – and Kershaw can opt out if he wants to, so they may end up renegotiating his deal to prevent that.

tom: Am I being too optimistic in seeing a #2 starter in Chris Paddack? I mean, to the naked eye both the control & command are 70 grade. I realize he’ll need a 3rd pitch – how has his curveball progressed? He seems to be dominating AA hitters as much as he did in High A
Keith Law: It isn’t impossible to be a #2 with a below-average breaking ball, but it’s rare/unusual.

Matt : Do you have an interest in economics or more specifically stocks/investing. With your background it seems like topics you’d be on board learning about.
Keith Law: I don’t think an individual can beat the market. Used to read a lot more on that topic, and covered a lot of it in school. More interested in the behavioral economics stuff – what drives our thinking, and our bad decisions, and why man isn’t the rational actor that 200+ years of economic philosophy claimed he was.

Brett: Scott Kingery or Luis Urias long term?
Keith Law: Urias. Both good.

Frank: Derick Rodriguez has pitched very well for the Giants. Can he be a solid #2 or #3 going forward?
Keith Law: Way too high. Back-end starter.

Jim, the Frustrated Fan: I’m SOOOO tired of seeing so many injuries as a result of head first slides. Is there any evidence feet-first slides are at all safer?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to that, actually.

Darryl: Recommended restaurants in downtown Chicago? Family is taking a trip next month and would love your input!
Keith Law: Monteverde, Publican & Publican Quality Meats, any Rick Bayliss place, Little Goat (haven’t been to Girl & the Goat, I assume it’s fantastic). Pretty good little food town they got there.

Dave: I was wondering why you think nobody has signed Hanley Ramirez, since all they’d have to pay is the pro-rated minimum. Is he that done? Also wanted to thank you for the chats and for Stick to Baseball. Although I have an issue with Stick to Baseball, because of all the extra reading I have to do. BTW who’d a thunk George Will would become the voice of reason.
Keith Law: Doesn’t have any defensive value and teams are loath to burn bench spots on guys like that, not when everyone wants to carry 15 pitches.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all as always for reading and all of your questions, and this week for bearing with me as I got caught in traffic (!) driving here on the Cape. I may not chat next week because I’ll be at Gen Con – and hope to see many of you there. Also, if you’re near Acton, Massachusetts, come see me Saturday at 1 pm at Paul Swydan’s new bookstore The Silver Unicorn. I’ll talk baseball, take your questions, and sign copies of Smart Baseball!

Starting at 1 pm ET. New Insider posts: my analysis of the Manny Machado trade, the updated top 50 prospects ranking, and my analysis of the Brad Hand/Francisco Mejia trade.

Keith Law: Take the weakest thing in you, and then beat the bastards with it. Klawchat.

Seath: you talked how the Orioles waited too long to trade Manny. What non rental player(s) do you think teams should trade now in order to maximize values
Keith Law: Chris Archer particularly comes to mind. Michael Fulmer, but that’s less urgent.

Adam: Thoughts on William Contreras? Seems to be having a really good year.
Keith Law: Yep, he’s not far off from that top tier of prospects – whether that’s top 75 or top 100 or top 120 or so, I’m not sure yet.

Hinkie: You have Sixto and JoJo as the Phillies top two pitching prospects. How close is Adonis Medina (assuming he’s their #3 pitching prospect) to Romero ?
Keith Law: Suarez > Medina for me. It’s a really good system. Kilome seemed like their top pitching prospect a few years ago and now he’s … 5th? 6th?

Craig: Where was Kyle Tucker before his promotion? And I’m guessing Yordan was left off due to position concerns?
Keith Law: I didn’t rank promoted guys. Mejia was on and then off and then on again, but he was the only one. Yordan has no position that I can see, and having seen him up close a few times, if he’s really 21 years old, he doesn’t have the physique or projection we typically ascribe to a player of 21.

Nate : KLaw, sure you’ll get a bunch of questions about the Manny & Hand deals, wondering if Kyle Lewis has re-gained enough value to consider top 100 and if Burnes is still top 100? Thanks
Keith Law: Burnes was top 20 before the season, I think, but he was also called up before the list. Lewis is not top 100 until he shows he can play regularly and can still handle an OF corner. That knee injury has been a motherforker.

Michael: Could you vote for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez?
Keith Law: No, because I’m not in her district.

Michael: Do you think the number of draftees who didn’t sign this year is an outlier or the start of a new trend?
Keith Law: Outlier.

Steve: Wander Franco, a young Lindor at the plate? Better?
Keith Law: Completely different players.

Andy: Obviously there is no way to know for sure if it would have been offered, but in the offseason could Baltimore have gotten Andujar and Sheffield?
Keith Law: I don’t think there were any serious talks around Machado this winter. The Orioles have so many people involved in any such decision that even when Duquette knows what the right thing to do is, he has to wait for everyone else to agree before he can do it. I don’t think Sheffield/Andujar would have been an unreasonable request.

Joe: As an Orioles fan, should I be worried about Chance Sisco? He has seemed to be overmatched, plus it looks like he doesn’t have the backing of the coaching staff.
Keith Law: The coaching staff issue can be fixed. I firmly believe in the axiom that catchers develop later and I’m not worried about him.

Hinkie: Please rank these soon to be free agent LHSP’s: Drew Pomerantz, Patrick Corbin, Yusei Kikuchi.
Keith Law: Never seen Kikuchi, sorry.

J: Do you trade DeGrom now and what kind of package could the Mets get in return? Also, do Wheeler or Matz have enough value to return a top prospect?
Keith Law: Oh, duh, he should have been in my first answer along with Archer. Sorry, been a busy morning. I’d explore trades for all three and, yes, for Thor too. See what the market offers and go from there. I imagine Wheeler or Matz would have appeal as starters who might be decent long guys in October too.

OgieOgilthorpe: I’m curious as to your thoughts on errors as a valid part of defensive stats. The vagaries of errors and official scorers was quite evident in the ASG… Yellich mis-plays a ball to OF (lights?) for a base hit, and Votto reaches over the dugout fence in out-of-play territory. Error!
Keith Law: Errors suck and I don’t look at them.

Andy: I know the comparables on BBref are a pretty blunt tool, but Yadier’s comps include Tim McCarver, Sherm Lollar, Jason Kendall, AJ Pierzynski and Terry Steinbach. Definitely good catchers all, but none of them screams HOF. Especially since so much of his case resides on defensive WAR, which is probably wildly inaccurate in all directions for catchers, how is it even controversial that he isn’t a HOFer?
Keith Law: His case really relies on framing, which 1) I don’t believe is a basis for HoF induction, and 2) wasn’t even a well-measured thing when the Yadi-for-HoF stuff started, so we’re just retconning it into his dossier now. He’s a good player. He should be in the Cardinals Hall of Fame. I can’t see any way I vote for him for the MLB Hall of Fame.

Hinkie: What’s up with Logan Davidson ? He didn’t make the USA collegiate team this summer and now he is struggling on the Cape. Is he more of a top 10 pick in the 2019 draft, a later first rounder, or has he moved out of the top round ?
Keith Law: He wasn’t invited to the USA team – not the same as not making it. I think he’s a potential top 10 pick.

Justin : Any Red Sox remotely close to your top 50? What are the chances this is the worst farm system in baseball by the offseason?
Keith Law: Seattle probably has that worst farm system thing on lockdown. KC is worse too. Boston may not be bottom five. Their problem is more that the best guys are hurt, not that their best guys aren’t good.

A big dumb idiot: I know you were high on Sean Reid-Foley for a while, and the superficial stats are starting to look pretty good in Buffalo. Have you heard anything about his recent performance?
Keith Law: I saw him this year. Think he’s probably a RP in the end.

Adam D.: Any chance for Joey Bart of Heliot Ramos to crack the top-50 next year?
Keith Law: It seems very unlikely to me, given Bart’s hit tool, and how far away Ramos seems to be.

Blackburn: After seeing what elite relievers with control have fetched in trades the last few years. What would Felipe Vazquez fetch back in a trade?
Keith Law: I may never get used to him not being Felipe Rivero (that’s my fault, not his). I would have to think he’d be in line for the Andrew Miller sort of return – you get 3 years of him and acquire him at his peak.

PhillyJake: Did the Os do better over all than the compensatory pick they’d have received for Manny rejecting the QO at the end of the season?
Keith Law: Yes, absolutely.

Grant : I saw Griffin Canning or Brandon Marsh weren’t on your top 50 or the “considered” part of the article also. What range are they in for you?
Keith Law: Marsh was top 100 before the season, no reason he wouldn’t be again. Canning is a top 100 consideration but his durability is still a question.

Guest: How close is Mejia to the big leagues? With Hedges being an elite defender and SD having so many OFs, do the Padres move him to 3B?
Keith Law: Mejia is big league ready, and have you seen Hedges’ offensive performance?

Heal Nuntingon: Is Edgar Santana enough to get the Braves to come off of one of their young starters (Fried, Allard, Gohara)?
Keith Law: For a nice middle reliever? I doubt it. San Diego had to essentially do a two-for-one to get a top-level prospect for Hand.

Weinshie: Have you had a look at Alex Kirilloff yet? If so, your thoughts.
Keith Law: Yes. He’s on the top 50 today, linked up top.

Justin: Thoughts on Mitch Keller and Ke’Bryan Hayes?
Keith Law: Also both in the top 50 today, linked up top.

Jesse B: What did Jesus Sanchez do or not do to slip out of the top 50?
Keith Law: It doesn’t really work that way – this isn’t a moving list. He’s a good prospect, but there are 50 better ones right now in my opinion, guys with more bat or more defensive or positional value.

The Big Enchilada: Joey Gallo appears to have regressed this year — is he just another Mark Reynolds type, or do you think he’ll improve going forward compared to what he’s done this year?
Keith Law: I think he has the potential to improve, but it will take a serious effort from him and the coaching staff to get him to further tighten his command of the strike zone. Someone asked on Twitter why Seuly Matias wasn’t on the top 50 or honorable mentions – and he wasn’t even close, FWIW – and the short answer is that his best case scenario right now is what Joey Gallo is today.

Chris: Do you still see Corbin Burnes as a solid SP, mid rotation or better? He has looked solid out of the bullpen this year, but it seems like the Brewers don’t really need him as a SP, especially with Jimmy Nelson coming back.
Keith Law: Solid SP, yes, if they need him there. Eventually they will.

Josh: Obviously a tertiary part of the trade, but at a glance Zach Pop seems like an intriguing bullpen guy. Does he have a closer ceiling?
Keith Law: No. Middle guy. I detailed it in the writeup on the trade.

myslas: I checked up on Miguel Amaya because he was starting in the Futures game and was surprised to see he has 12 HR with a .343 OBP in A-ball as a 19 year old. Is this a fluke or is this a breakout and he’s now a top 3 prospect in Cubs system?
Keith Law: He is their #1 prospect right now. Alzolay got hurt, Ademan has been and looked terrible.

Minty: Since it’s not a fantasy list, I loved the move for your #1 prospect while praising Vlad as well. When do you see Tatis as being ready? Watching Hosmer is rough.
Keith Law: Tatis could debut in September, but won’t because of service time/40-man considerations. I think he’s up by this time next year.

Joe: Keith, I didn’t see an Alex Well write up in your post about the Futures Game. Thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Command guy, I believe 89-91 that day, a little less in longer outings, but can really pitch with some deception.

J.P.: Are Mejia’s chances of sticking at catcher more or less now?
Keith Law: They haven’t changed. Your ability is not a function of the team that employs you.

Justin : The Josh Hader thing blows my mind. Don’t these guys have handlers/publicists who check their Twitter history for hate like this?
Keith Law: This should be every agent’s job. Hell, hire an intern to search your players’ social media histories. Hader is hardly the first – Ryan Rolison had some tweet hoping Obama would be assassinated from 2012, for example. As an agent or adviser, you should grill your clients on social media history, and then doubt whatever they tell you and search anyway.

Garrett: How big of a difference is there between your top prospects? Like is Mejia a lot better than someone like Adell? And is Adell a lot better than someone like Kiriloff?
Keith Law: I’m not sure how to give a precise answer to that. Is prospect 5 a lot better than prospect 10? Yes. How much? Not sure. Every prospect there has a range of potential outcomes, so if Prospect 10 hits his best case scenario while prospect 5 hits his median outcome, then prospect 10 will end up better, but that doesn’t mean the ranking was necessarily wrong.

Adam: Seems like the Braves have waited too long to shop Inciarte. Would he still have some value on his current deal given his abilities defensively?
Keith Law: Remember when I got pilloried by Atlanta fans for suggesting that they shop Inciarte? That was fun. Still has two years of control left on that deal, so I think there’s value, maybe two decent prospects’ worth. Would be sensible for Atlanta to do that rather than dump prospects for a playoff push this year.

Belieber: How close was the Biebs to the top 50? In the top 100?
Keith Law: Sorry to throw cold water on you this one time, but he’s not near to top 100 kind of company.

j: Any thoughts on Yankees’ Everson Pereira?
Keith Law: Just young. Can you be a pre-prospect? That’s what he is.

Sonny: RE Hader- when Twitter reacts so vehemently to a 17 year olds tweets from 7 years ago, doesn’t it lower the ceiling of our outrage for when someone is actually racist? The Twitter screaming seems pretty extreme, considering there are people out there being murdered and beaten for their race.
Keith Law: I’m not sure why the fact that people are being beaten and murdered for their race, ethnic origin (look up Muhammad Abu Marzouk), religion, orientation, etc. matters to this discussion; it seems whataboutist to me. And Hader’s tweets weren’t stupid – it’s not like he tweeted “Man, I love Nickelback!” They were offensive, across the board, to multiple groups. It’s reasonable to call that person to account for his words.

Matt : Keith, thoughts on Yankees pitching prospect Trevor Stephan? Is he a starter or reliever long-term?
Keith Law: Reliever. Good one, but every scout i know who’s seen him says reliever.

Nick: How close was Peter Alonso to making the list?
Keith Law: There was only one player on the list who profiles as either a 1b or a DH, and that guy has an 80 hit tool.

Henry: Who are some of the Top 2019 College guys?
Keith Law: Davidson for sure. Stinson at Duke, but he’s a reliever long-term. Wilson at NC State. Langeliers at Baylor; he’s a monster. Would like to see Lodolo at TCU again, as he’s come along well since HS. It’s actually a bad college crop, though. I expect a HS heavy class.

BigSauce: no mention of Autsin Riley in your latest top 50…was it the lack of PA due to injury?
Keith Law: Wasn’t on my top 100 preseason either.

Bobby Higginson: Isaac Padares a top 5 prospect in the Tiger system right now?
Keith Law: Yes, I’d say so, even with concerns about him.

Mac: Any thoughts on Danny Jansen? Is his bat legit?
Keith Law: I think he’s going to hit. Offensive catcher, just adequate behind the dish.

Greg: How much more value do you think the Orioles would have gotten for Manny if they had traded him this offseason, being that he was coming off a sub-par season? After 2016 was clearly the time to trade him and Britton but would have been tough for fans to swallow coming off the Wild Card.
Keith Law: The subpar season would have had no effect. Nobody I know thought he was somehow worse, especially since he raked in the second half as he had before.

Jason: are you encouraged by corey ray’s power surege?
Keith Law: Not really – heard from scouts he’s selling out so much for power that they think it’s impacting the hit tool.

Nicky: Keith – what do you see as a projection for Justin Dunn? Saw he almost made your top 50 list. Any comps come to mind? Love the work man thank you!
Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter. Maybe more once he has a real LF behind him.

Ryan: Was Alex Reyes no longer eligible or were his injuries simply too significant a concern to warrant placing him in your top 50?
Keith Law: Eligible, not considered. Hard to forecast him as a starter right now given how little he’s pitched. Shoulder, then elbow, and now this.

Brian: Both Mickey Moniak and Adam Haseley seem to have turned their seasons around. Haseley has been consistently hitting for a few months and Moniak has 37 games of .776 OPS in spite of having his wisdom teeth out. Have you gotten any more positive reports on them?
Keith Law: I have only gotten negative reports on both guys. And I’m not sure the wisdom teeth thing is really an issue.

Matt: Thoughts on Joey Bart so far? Hitting for a high average and showing his power.
Keith Law: In short-season ball, for which he’s quite old. And he’s struck out like a quarter of the time, which we knew coming in was an issue.

Adam: Would Allard, Fried, and Pache be enough to get in the game for Degrom? Too much?
Keith Law: I would ask if someone was holding Anthopoulos at gunpoint.

Nicky: What kind of slash line do you see from Pete Alonso in his prime years? Is his defense really that atrocious? Thanks man
Keith Law: Did you see him at the Futures Game? Atrocious is unfair, but he’s not a good defender at 1b.

Chad: In your last chat you said Taylor Tramell was “definitely not” a Top 25 prospect, but he snuck in at #25. Just a reaction to the futures game or industry consensus that he’s improving?
Keith Law: Industry consensus, and also seeing him at the Futures Game helped, because a criticism I had heard from multiple scouts turned out to be unfounded (or just out of date). His swing looked great in BP and in the game.

Guest: Thoughts on Jorge Guzman…can he stick as a #2 or #3 starter or is he destined for the pen
Keith Law: Reliever all the way.

Justin : What has been the best/funniest interaction with a reader during your Smart Baseball tour?
Keith Law: A couple came up to me on Saturday at Politics & Prose in DC, but it was clear he was the fan and she was just hanging out. He gave me his book to sign, we chatted, and as they’re walking away, she turns to me and says, “I don’t know baseball, but I think you’re funny.”
Keith Law: Also, I think I told the story last year of showing up in Atlanta to be greeted by the best friend of my late uncle. I hadn’t seen John in probably 20+ years, and he drove in a good distance to come see me and have me sign his copy. Nothing will beat that.

Joe: Have you gotten out to see DL Hall yet? Seems to be making huge strides this year.
Keith Law: No but i want to. Huge strides, or just being what he was? Really didn’t pitch much last summer, but reports match what I heard from last spring – it’s three pitches, command is lacking, mid-rotation kind of upside, very high floor because he’s LH and can get both sides out.

mike sixel: Kyle Gibson on that list of guys to trade now, rather than wait? Or can the Twins compete next year?
Keith Law: I think they think they can compete next year, so perhaps not.

Keys: Why do you think Baseball Twitter skews so far left on the political scale?
Keith Law: Baseball Twitter tends to be strongly rationalist. The online baseball community in general is more accepting of progressive ideas around the sport and more demanding of evidence in debates or discussions. Whether that is “far left” probably depends how far in the anti-science/anti-intellectual tank you have sunk.

Justin : I know you don’t “HATE” any team per se, but which team do you like the least?
Keith Law: Yours.

Brian: Hi Keith, love your work. I know you were a little lower on Joey Bart than some others, but do you currently have in your top 100?
Keith Law: I didn’t rank out 100 guys, but based on his predraft ranking and where those guys end up on my top 100s six months later, I’d say yes.

PhillyJake: There’s been a lot made in the Pittsburgh press about the Pirates pitcher’s reliance on the fast ball. The focus has been on Cole and Morton in Houston, about how they’re doing better throwing more breaking pitches and fewer fastballs. Have you any thoughts on this?
Keith Law: That’s true across baseball, right? The best teams are having their pitchers work more with offspeed stuff, contrary to maybe a century of pitching wisdom that you must work off or establish the fastball first, and every other pitch comes second.

Brian: Read an interesting positive report on Buddy Reed after some people saw him at the Futures game (mainly in BP). Has he evolved at all in a surprising way or is projection still the same?
Keith Law: Swing is a bit better. Defense was always plus. He’s old for high-A and that’s a good place to hit, so I need to see him produce in double-A to buy into the idea that he’s different.

Frank: Why did a reliever bring back a much better prospect in return as opposed to a starting 3B/SS who’s having the best year of his career in the bigs?
Keith Law: Two relievers, both with years of control remaining. Machado is a straight rental.

Marc (DC): Wheeler for Keibert Ruiz, who says no.
Keith Law: Dodgers laugh at that. Friedman/Zaidi rarely trade prospects of any significance. That they traded Diaz makes me wonder if there’s something we don’t know about the player.

Rick C: Do you not have any concern over Pache’s plate discipline?
Keith Law: Not in the least. He’s 19 in high-A.

Vin: If you were running the Giants, what would you do with Bumgarner? I can’t imagine they’d trade him, but it doesn’t seem like paying him $200 mil + on a so-so team is a good idea.
Keith Law: I would trade him. I don’t see any way they do.

Jon: re: Ocasio-Cortez. But I read on Twitter that you live in Brooklyn
Keith Law: Gentrified Brooklyn. All my utensils are hipsterling silver.

Jeffrey Lebowski: Can teams be/stay successful if they seem really bad at early-round drafting but are fairly dominant in the Latin American market? The city of Philadelphia awaits your answer with baited breath.
Keith Law: Yes. Look at my top 50 today: first five guys were all July 2nd signings.

Kirk: If Vlad Jr were at first base and not third, would he have been #1? Or would the less skilled position keep him at #2?
Keith Law: He can’t play third. There’s zero chance of that, between his footwork and his size already. The ranking reflects the probability that he’s a 1b or a DH, but he’s not anything else.

Harry: Will you be attending tomorrow’s Under Armour game?
Keith Law: I will indeed.

Joe: Keith, is there any scouting notes you can provide on the high school hitters from their home run derby over the weekend?
Keith Law: You can’t scout a HR derby. Especially not with the silly balls they were using.

Dan: The All-Star game was a perfect example, I think, of what baseball is becoming: long stretches of K’s & BB’s followed by a HR here and there and a couple scattered hits. The game feels way more boring than it has been at anytime in my life. Do you think this is true and what are some remedies?
Keith Law: I’m a broken record on this but raise the bottom of the strike zone.

Nick: Hi Keith. In regards to Bichette: Are you hesitant to think he stays at SS due to his arm or range? If it’s his range, do you think it’s becoming less important with all the shifting and defensive alignments? I mean we are in the new age of positionless baseball.
Keith Law: Still have to have range. You can shift guys but that doesn’t mean every ball is hit right at them.

John: The new Chvrches album doesn’t exactly break any new ground and the lyrics aren’t quite up to par with the last couple, but Graffiti slaps as much as any song of theirs, no?
Keith Law: No, I hated the record.

Jon: Do you ever mistakenly say would when you mean “wouldn’t”?
Keith Law: I meant to say that Luis Severino wouldn’t be a reliever.

wickethewok: Thoughts on the Trogdor Kickstarter? I watched the gameplay video, but I’m not sure if it would end up on the pile of games that are more fun in theory than practice.
Keith Law: I’ll check out the demo at Gen Con. It’s probably a great theme on a trivial game, but I’ll try it.

Rick C: On a scale of 1-10, how big of a blunder was it for the Braves to not sign Stewart?
Keith Law: Unless you know what they found in his physical, you can’t even ask that question, let alone answer it.

Dane Dunning: Was I close to the top 50? I’m a very high floor starter if you ask me.
Keith Law: You’re also out for the year with a partially torn elbow ligament that might still end up requiring surgery.

Nick: I know it’s only 100 AB’s in the GCL, but do you have any early reports on Ronny Mauricio?
Keith Law: on the tools, yes, very positive, higher upside guy than Gimenez, who is obviously more advanced but doesn’t project to impact like Mauricio might.

Oscar: Why are so many people so quick to jump to “he was a kid and said something stupid” defense for Hader? When I was teenager, I didn’t come anywhere NEAR saying something as stupid or offensive as he did (and I was a really stupid kid). And he did it multiple times for Pete’s sake.
Keith Law: Right. Stupid is “Nickelback is the best band ever!” It’s not … that stuff Hader said. That’s much worse than merely stupid. These are opinions that can change, and I will gladly accept that he may no longer be that person, but he left all that shit up on his feed for anyone to find, too.

Dan: Maybe I don’t fully understand the projected/anticipated value, but it seems like the Orioles are getting amazing value for 2 months of Machado. Even if Diaz is just an average regular, he alone will far exceed the WAR of 2 months of Machado, no?
Keith Law: If he’s an average regular, sure. There’s always a chance he’s less than that. And the point is not a WAR to WAR comparison, but whether they maximized what the market would pay. Getting back more WAR than you traded does not mean you got the most value back you could have.

Jon: Do you think Manfred realized how jerk-ish he sounded when calling Trout out for not being cooperative in marketing?
Keith Law: I absolutely, firmly believe he did not realize it until after the fact. I disagree with the Commissioner on many things. I do not think he is a jerk, or means to sound like one.
Keith Law: Bud, on the other hand … i had my doubts.

Mike F: Love your writing and I think I just missed you at the Futures Game. I realize Nate Lowe was too old for High A but he seems to be putting up the same big numbers in AA. Any chance he is a emerging as a sleeper prospect?
Keith Law: More like a second-tier guy, has to hit at every level to prove it given his age and position, but I don’t see any reason he can’t/won’t at least produce enough to be a big leaguer.

Mark: What was your favorite dining experience while visiting Italy ?
Keith Law: The pinsa, a different type of pizza from the Lazio region, that I ate with my cousins at Pinsotto in Nervi, which is a neighborhood at the eastern end of Genoa.

Enrique: Thoughts on Elehuris Montero? He someone you think makes your top 100 next season?
Keith Law: Doubt that. Bat over glove right now, not sure where he plays. A prospect, though. Top 100 is still fairly selective.

EL: Could the Giants have a top-10 farm in a year or two?
Keith Law: Sure, if they trade Bumgarner and Posey.

Brian: What would be your guess on the trade value of Hedges? Could you bring back a top 100 prospect for him just based on his defense?
Keith Law: I can’t imagine that at all.

Scott: I cant believe I am going to make this argument but here it goes. With a future outfield of Eaton, Robles, Soto, and Taylor are the Nats better off not throwing $300M-$400M at Harper if that means they will strapped for cash and will not be able to re-sign key assets like Rendon and his BFF Turner down the line. If I had the choice between Rendon, Turner, and maybe another solid SP vs Harper I think I would choose the former. Should the front office view it this way?
Keith Law: Yes, I think that’s quite reasonable, and I’m a huge believer in Harper and think he’s going to be worth $300MM+. He just doesn’t line up with the Nats’ needs.

Jeff: Adley Rutschman as an early 1-1 possibility next year or at least top 5?
Keith Law: I couldn’t say never, not with Bart going 2, but to me that is overly aggressive.

Andrew: Do you see Rockies parting with a Rodgers, McMahon, or Lambert at this deadline?
Keith Law: No to Rodgers or Lambert. The way they’ve handled McMahon makes me think they would part with him – but I have zero inside info on that.

Tom: Any market for Britton? He seems to have gained some velocity and regained his sink in his last few appearances.
Keith Law: Oh there’s a market – the question is whether the return will be acceptable. I’d still acquire him, but I’m not paying a Gleyber-plus price.

Jim: you’ve probably been asked this before so I’m sorry if I’m repeating it but do you see Brendan McKay sticking as a 2 way player or will/should he commit to one?
Keith Law: It’s actually in the top 50 today – I answered that exact question.

Beau: Is Huddson Potts for real? He’s putting up really strong numbers for a 19 yr old in High A.
Keith Law: He’s a prospect, was one before the season too. Still very young, looks like he’s going to stay at third too.

Jake: Anyone in the top 50 that you hadn’t heard of two years ago?
Keith Law: Two years ago Wander Franco was 15. So the only way I could say I’d heard of him is that he has two brothers also named Wander Franco.

Jack: Is Adam Haseley the second best position player prospect that the Phillies have? (Behind Bohm)
Keith Law: Ortiz. Ortiz might actually be better than Bohm, but Bohm is playing third for now and I’ll give him a nod because he might stay there, while Ortiz is in LF but is going to be a 1b.
Keith Law: I really like Muzziotti too. He can really hit, and he can run. Not very disciplined at the plate, but for now, while he can hit everything, it’s OK.

KLaws over Replacement : Are more teams opting for quantity over quality regarding prospects in trades? It seems like it with machado trade being the latest example but it might just be confirmation bias since I’m still bitter the yankees didnt get Cole
Keith Law: If you can’t get quality, you go for quantity. The Orioles did not do badly here. I can’t emphasize that enough – I am not saying they fared poorly, or got robbed, or fucked up. That’s not right. I’m saying that the return would likely have been much higher in the offseason.

Rob: Mejia at 3b… just curious… 3b has been a black hole for years for the Padres. Could he be slightly below average there defensively?
Keith Law: I’m not sure he’ll have the footwork or agility for it.

Marxist Lennonist: How would you compare the package the Dodgers gave up for Machado to the package the Dodgers gave up for Darvish last year? Machado is a much better player than Darvish, but the Dodgers didn’t seem to give up enough more talent to account for the difference.
Keith Law: Oh yeah, this is way more.
Keith Law: for Machado, I mean.

MIKEPCFL: So the Orioles say they are going to look into adding more scouting, using analytics and maybe getting into the international market. They should catch up to the rest of the league in how many years?
Keith Law: That’s great to hear, but Duquette’s contract is up, and if he’s not the GM next year then the words won’t amount to anything.

addoeh: Odds Kelenic is a top 10 prospect this time next year?
Keith Law: Not impossible. 10-15%.

JP: The first thing I’d tell my client is to simply delete their social media accounts and start mew ones from scratch. Simplest fix.
Keith Law: I completely agree.

Ryan: I’m getting errors so apologies if duplicate question. Is Knizner enough of a prospect that the Cards should consider moving Kelly?
Keith Law: If they’re not going to play Kelly any time soon, yes, because he’s ready, and Knizner, while not as good as Kelly, is also a good prospect.

Harris: You have Tatis above Vlad Jr. However, it seems the media hype is bigger for Vlad Jr. Why do you think this is?
Keith Law: Vlad Jr. is great. His dad is a Hall of Famer. He has unbelievable power, which makes for good highlights. But Tatis is a shortstop with incredible skills on both sides of the ball.

Steve: Were Alonso or Gimenez close to making the top 50? Is defense the thing holding Alonso back from being top 50?
Keith Law: Alonso I answered above. Gimenez isn’t close. I don’t think there’s much ceiling there.

Larry: Where would Carter Stewart have been in your top 50?
Keith Law: Top 25-ish? But again, I have no idea what’s going on with him. I can only grade the player I saw in the spring, but I don’t know if there’s a health consideration.

Jeff: Could Adley Rutschman go 1-1? Any catcher ever picked first?
Keith Law: Steve Chilcott was the first overall pick in 1966. He never reached the majors. The second pick was Reggie Jackson.

Lilith: So is Iglesias now the premium reliever on the market? Who would be most interested?
Keith Law: Wouldn’t every contender be? I’m not being flippant – who wouldn’t be better of for having him?

Chris: Why do you have verdugo ranked so low?
Keith Law: I don’t. I think I have him in just the right spot, actually.

Jefferson K.: How bad would Pache’s bat have to be to not be a big league starter?
Keith Law: He’s going to be in the discussion for best defensive CF in the game when he gets there. You don’t have to hit much – and he’s going to be a 20-HR type – to be a starter when you’re saving 15+ runs a year with your glove too.

Greyson: Has Jake Rogers’ hitting tool regressed, has he gotten unlucky, or was there a major hole in his swing that he hasn’t patched? Why is he having so much trouble making contact?
Keith Law: He couldn’t hit last year – I saw him, wrote about it, then wrote it again when he was in the trade. Just an older guy in high-A beating up some bad pitching, but he couldn’t hit quality stuff at all.

Larry: Hey Keith, I know you’ve said before that you have come around some to Austin Riley. I’m still confused about him though. How valuable is he really if he’s striking out this much?
Keith Law: The contact rate & bat speed remain the concerns. He’s done wonders with his body, become a legit third baseman, and has real power.

Scott: Is Dalbec a prospect for Sox or too old for Single A ? Also, have you been to Evero in Newark De. yet?
Keith Law: And Dalbec is pretty similar, actually. I just got him the other day when Salem came here Monday night … there’s a lot of swing and miss, but the contact he makes will be hard. That might be an 80 arm at third too, although Riley moves better and of course has hit at higher levels. I really hope Dalbec goes to Portland soon.

Joseph: Now that you have finished reading all the winners of the Pulitzer, do you have any other reading “challenges” you wish to pursue?
Keith Law: I have other lists I use when perusing bookstores – Booker winners, Hugo winners (just four left, and I own two), the top 100 lists the Guardian or Modern Library put out – but I’m done pushing myself through miserable reads just to finish checklists. I think.

Keith: Is Kyle Lewis still the Ms top prospect? Any observations on him from the futures game? Would he slide in the 100-150 range?
Keith Law: Might take Evan White over him.

Defensive Woe-rioles: Cedric Mullins has done nothing but produce the last 2 years in AA/AAA and looked good in ST but missed your top 50. Is he a top 100? Close?
Keith Law: Not top 100.

Slick Rick Hahn: You still holding any Lucas Gioltio stock as we enter the 2nd half or has that ship sailed?
Keith Law: I’ve seen enough signs of progress in the last six weeks to still think he’s going to be a good big-league starter.

Ryan: How do you see Dakota Hudson moving forward? I’m hoping he’s closer to a back end of the rotation starter than to a Matt Bowman.
Keith Law: I feel like it’s about 90% reliever with him. Other scouts who were there Sunday all said the same to me – asking how he was a first rounder with that delivery and repertoire. (He was really good that spring in college, though.)

Joe: Shane Bieber isn’t even close to the top 100? Well Eric Longenhagen certainly disagrees. The guy sits at 93 with plus plus command and solid offspeed pitches.
Keith Law: OK, I’ll tell Eric you’re thinking of him. (And no, Bieber doesn’t “sit at 93.”)
Keith Law: Gotta run, phone call coming up right now. Thank you all for reading, for chatting, for coming to the book signing on Saturday or finding me on the concourse on Sunday. Quick reminder I’ll be in Acton, Massachusetts, at the Silver Unicorn Bookstore on Saturday, July 28th, at 1 pm, to talk Smart Baseball and sign your copies. Hope to see many of you then!

I’ll be co-hosting an all-ages board game night at the Brandywine Hundred Library in north Wilmington on Friday night starting at 5 pm. Details here.

Keith Law: We require certain skills. Klawchat.

barbeach: Keith: Thanks so much for doing these chats. Loved your book. If you’re Cashman, who are you NOT willing to part with to get Machado?
Keith Law: There’s no way I trade Sheffield, who could probably be their fifth starter in the second half, for two months of Machado. I’m not sure I’d trade him for any rental, really.

BigSauce: Kyle Tucker – Just A Guy, The Guy or better than Average Guy
Keith Law: He’s very much a GUY.

harold: why is Bader not playing everyday in STL? His WAR is the highest of their outfield by far. Fowlers struggles are well documented, and Pham and Ozuna haven’t been good either
Keith Law: I do think Bader should play more, or be traded, so we agree on that. However: 1) His WAR is largely boosted by defense on B-R; Fangraphs doesn’t give his glove the same value; and 2) his offensive value has been almost entirely from mashing against lefties.

Kyle KS: What recourse does Jordan Hicks have? His arm is abused by Matheny, getting bullied by Norris and Matheny and even the STL-PD seemed to pass it off as “boys will be boys.” He’s not in a good spot.
Keith Law: That’s one for his agent. If that happens to a player, their best move is to go to the agent, who can either go to the GM/President or through the union. I don’t think this runs afoul of MLB’s rules on hazing, which were specifically targeted at the September crap like putting rookies in women’s clothes, but I doubt MLB is thrilled at the news.

Jesse B: Is Wander Franco (TB) the next DR player to skyrocket up prospect lists?
Keith Law: He can really hit. Maybe a 2b, but the bat is real. Very quick hands.

Nicholas: In order to trade for Machado, would the Red Sox have to part with a MLB player or do they have enough parts in their MiLB system to make it happen?
Keith Law: I don’t see how they do it.

Kevin: Assuming everyone stays with the White Sox and develops into major leaguers, does Madrigal push Anderson or Moncada to a different position? Asking for a friend.
Keith Law: Anderson is the only true shortstop of the three, so it can’t be him. I think Moncada would make a good CF.

Mike: I’m still upset that no one picked up on your Laaz Rockit reference last week.
Keith Law: I’m upset enough that I’m going to take a holiday in Cambodia.

Brent: As a Cardinals fan I agree with your assessment of Yadier Molina’s HOF candidacy, he just doesn’t quite cut it. Wouldn’t cards fans energy be better spent promoting Jim Edmonds/Ted Simmons who have legitimate HOF cases? I know Edmonds fell off the ballot, but I can dream.
Keith Law: The lack of fan support for Edmonds – who was a two-way star for the Cardinals – puzzles me too.

Mike: Has jalen Miller done anything different this year, or is his resurgence (ok…surgence) more of a mirage?
Keith Law: Still only 21, so plenty of time to develop, but he’s repeating the league and he’s faded quite a bit since his strong start – since June 1st he has a .254 OBP and 3 walks vs 36 K.

Joe: DL Hall has been on a roll lately. Any positive reports?
Keith Law: Quite positive. Three-pitch guy. I get a lot of “mid-rotation starter ceiling” on him, which surprises me because he seems to have a few weapons to miss bats. He’s one of my top targets to see in the second half.

Alex: Anything to take out of F. Whitley’s 2018 or should we just consider it a lost year at this point?
Keith Law: I’m not sure what the question is – he’s thrown just 21 innings, and they were very good.

Alex: Any notable addition to your kitchen equipment from the Europe trip?
Keith Law: We didn’t shop that much, although we did end up in a bookstore in Milan (alas, no Baseball Intelligente) and I picked up a small cookbook devoted completely to gnocchi and gnudi.

Jo-Nathan: Fuck, we are going to see Tim Tebow in a Mets uniform in September aren’t we?
Keith Law: One hundred percent.

Sing: Hi Keith, could you shed some light on what happened with Carter Stewart? Did the Braves realize they had an injured pitcher or was it about money? Also, does getting the 9th pick in 2019 provide more of a benefit to the Braves if he was injured? Love your work and thanks.
Keith Law: I won’t. I will say that I think Stewart should head for a junior college and re-enter next year’s draft; he could be a top 5 pick with a similar spring without injury. I think Atlanta is worse off with the 9th pick next year than with the 8th pick this year.

Gary: Do you see Jason Bahr as an eventual mid-rotation starter?
Keith Law: I do not.

Dennis: Why didn’t your wife come to Europe with you and your daughter?
Keith Law: She hates flying – used to have a real fear of it, now just truly dislikes it, and the flights to/from Europe are no joke, plus it’s two flights to get to my cousins in Genoa (there was one nonstop option from Newark to Milan, but it was expensive, and EWR sucks). I did offer, but she really wasn’t interested.

Jo-Nathan: Any word on how Kyle Lewis looks? The numbers are underwhelming but what are scouts saying?
Keith Law: Not 100%.

Kyle KS: What sites do you have open while chatting? You pull up numbers and other info in a hurry.
Keith Law: I just open sites as needed, like B-R and Fangraphs.

Pat: SSS at Toledo aside, has Jacob Robson made himself a viable prospect this year? Seems like improved power with a decent eye, but, unsupportable BABIP. 4th OF? CF on a bad team?
Keith Law: Fourth OF. That’s a fringe prospect for me. Not much power for a corner.

El Perezoso: Where do you feel Machado ends up and for what return?
Keith Law: Brewers and Dodgers make most sense, but honestly, if I’m betting, I’d bet on him not moving at all.

Matt: What is Zach Britton worth on the trade market?
Keith Law: Not much, since he’s barely pitched since his return and hasn’t looked right yet.

Jay: Do we need to give Mickey Callaway more time to grow as a manager, or can we already proclaim this was a bad hire? Man he seems clueless so far.
Keith Law: I don’t know what you expect him to do with that roster, though.

Mike: How do you evaluate someone like Puk for rankings coming into next season?
Keith Law: I usually drop TJ guys quite a bit until they’re back throwing and we at least have some reports on whether their velocity has returned.

John: Is Dayton Moore with the Royals when they return to contention?
Keith Law: Probably not.

Rod: Can you see Cristian Pache getting promoted to AA before the end of the year?
Keith Law: I see no point to that.

Jason: What’s the story behind the “accident” of electing Rick Ferrell to the HOF?
Keith Law: Some friend of his asked a few Vets Committee members to vote for Ferrell so he wouldn’t be embarrassed by getting shut out. Enough of them voted for him that he got in. So maybe we shouldn’t use him as some low bar for future candidates to clear.

Matt: Thanks for recommending Ticket to Ride! What should I pick up next?
Keith Law: Depends on who you’re playing with and whether you want something similar or a shade more challenging. Carcassonne is always my go-to recommendation for folks who are looking for a new game but haven’t played a ton of titles.

Sean: Hi Keith, thanks again for the chats. Watching Enyel De Los Santos’ debut his short-arm motion surprised me. Is that a potential problem for him going forward? Also, does he project as a mid to back-end rotation starter? I am trying not to overreact to his potential by scouting his AAA stat line.
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s a starter, between the delivery and lack of a real breaking ball.

Mike: Is Machado really that much of an upgrade over Andujar? These rumors don’t pass the sniff test for me.
Keith Law: Specifically, what is two months of Machado (plus October) worth versus Andujar? Maybe two wins, and then the postseason? What’s that worth? Not a huge package of prospects, IMO.

Jimmy: What policies of Trump do you like ?
Keith Law: He keeps promising to liberalize marijuana laws. Granted, I want that to come with expunging records of past convictions for trivial possession, but this would be a huge start.

Scott: If Carter Kieboom continues at a somewhere similar pace to finish out the year, could you see him moving up to a potentially top 25 prospect going into next year?
Keith Law: No, that’s too much for a guy who’s not a shortstop.

Jimmy: RE twitter comment about Kaepernick/baseball: I don’t think you would go out of your way to bash Kap like you have Tebow …
Keith Law: The cool thing is that what you think I would do doesn’t matter. If any player were gifted a job and promotions he hadn’t earned, and thus got in the way of another player (Urena can’t play LF in Binghamton because the washed-up QB is stumbling around out there), I would bash the team that signed him, as I have the Mets.

Aaron: I know you’re more of a fan of literary fiction, but what popular fiction (aside from Harry Potter) have you liked?
Keith Law: I love some classic authors like Agatha Christie and Rex Stout. Ann Patchett certainly crosses over into popular fiction although her work is good enough to count as literature. I guess that’s where you’ll find my tastes in popular fiction – the smart stuff that crosses over into popularity.

JP: Klaw! Whats up my dude? Dustin May.. what are your thoughts?
Keith Law: Great athlete, two pitches right now, control well ahead of command, having an outstanding season for a 20-year-old in a strong hitter’s park.

HH: If you’re Cleveland, do you give up Mejia for two months of Machado (and really, only October)? Does that get it done?
Keith Law: If I’m Baltimore I take that deal. I don’t do it if I’m Cleveland; I might deal Mejia, but not for a rental.

Scooter: Do you expect Alec Bohm (given his track record and age) to be an every day player down the line for the Phillies?
Keith Law: Yes. I think he’s a regular, but probably not a star unless he can become an average defender at third. Early pro reports on him haven’t been good.

Michael: RBI’s mean nothing, but does the 15th 10 RBI game in history mean anything?
Keith Law: No.

Nick: What high school prospect has had the best breaking ball you’ve ever scouted?
Keith Law: I didn’t get a truly healthy Carter Stewart this spring, so it’s one of Groome, Giolito, or Bundy. I said all three had 70 curveballs.

Lenneal McKudu: Has the industry warmed up to Drew Waters, yet? 136 wRC+ through the halfway mark in Rome.
Keith Law: Don’t use wOBA/wRC+ for minor leaguers. Chase Vallot had a 136 wRC+ last year in Wilmington, and then posted a 65 wRC+ this year before he was demoted.
Keith Law: Guys who can’t hit decent pitching – like Vallot – can feast enough on bad pitching to put up what look like good wRC+ numbers, but they don’t actually give us the information that they provide on major leaguers.

Alex: The Tigers trade Fulmer to the Braves for Austin Riley, Drew Waters, and Joey Wentz. Who says no first?
Keith Law: Why would Atlanta do that

Welcome Back Kapler: You being high on Kap as a manager was basically the only reason that I gave him a chance after the disastrous first week as a manager. How do you think he has done? Secondly – do you think the Phillies will get him help like Machado or should they stay the course and sign Machado/Harper in the offseason (either one).
Keith Law: I think he’s done extremely well, and I agree with others who’ve said they’re the favorites for Machado, between the front office connections, their financial wherewithal, and the non-development of Franco (although he’s had a nice few weeks).

Sugar Shane Delery: Is there a more frustrating player in baseball than Gregory Polanco? All the tools but highly inconsistent.
Keith Law: It seems like that’s happened a lot with Pirates’ hitters, no? Polanco and Bell are underperforming in the majors (relative to tools – Polanco hasn’t been bad, but he should be a star). Meadows never developed as expected in the minors, although he was hurt a lot. Newman and Hayes have been OK, but a little below expectations. I don’t have a good answer here.

Matt: Pache is up to 8 HRs on the year, is his body just filling out? It looks sustainable.
Keith Law: I said over the winter I thought he’d end up a 20+ homer guy. He was just so young for low-A last year, and his body was really slight for his age too.

Nick: Can you recall the most a consensus top 10 pick dropped in the draft (not counting signability/health concerns).
Keith Law: It’s always signability or health.

Ryan: Is there anyone in the Mets system that you are high on that other publications or scouts aren’t really talking about much?
Keith Law: I don’t know about other publications, but i have certainly boosted Dunn and Peterson, and to a lesser extent Kay.

Robbie: Garrett Richards seems to need TJ. Is there something about his delivery that’s led to so many of his injuries, or is he just unlucky with the way his body has reacted to the workload?
Keith Law: I think this is largely the same injury, with TJ delayed by stem cell treatment.

Neil: Optimistic about Dalbec, or does his age and level cancel out most of his progress?
Keith Law: He is a prospect thanks to his power, but a 30% strikeout rate – for a guy who’s long had swing and miss problems – for a 23-year-old in high-A is not good.

Nick: Ryan McKenna – what do you make of his breakout this year?
Keith Law: I’m in. Future regular. Late bloomer, not shocking given where he came from.

Anthony: Beyond Adell, any prospects who have impressed a lot thus far this year? Or will we have to wait for the mid season update next week?
Keith Law: I’d rather get the list out next week, and then discuss any other names in the chat that afternoon.

Oscar: Jumping on the Machado trade train. If you’re the Dodgers, what would be your final “take it or leave it” offer for Machado?
Keith Law: I’d put Verdugo and Smith in an offer; I get the sense they’re not as high on Verdugo as his performance would imply, and Smith is behind Ruiz. If the O’s can do better than that, more power to them.

Zach: I’m a 30-yr who finally walked away from the GOP in the wake of Trump. Have they always been this nuts or is this a product of post-Obama hysteria?
Keith Law: I have voted Republican many times in the past, and I think this is a new and very unfortunate phase, one that will almost certainly ensure I never vote for any Republican candidate again.

Aaron : Your early thoughts on the 2019 Draft, any names to keep an eye on during the early part of the draft process?
Keith Law: Too early. I’ll do some events later this month, including Under Armour, and visit this at the end of August once showcases/the cape are done. I will say scouts’ comments on the collegiate national team were fairly negative, with a lot of questions why some players (Logan Davidson comes to mind) weren’t even invited, and comments how the freshmen were better prospects than the sophomores.

Harrisburg Hal: Have you ever made chocolate lava cake? incredibly easy or difficult? I’m not a chocolate person, but thought I’d surprise my wife by baking.
Keith Law: Incredibly easy. You just have to make sure you pull it out early enough … and then we really need to have a conversation about bringing back phrasing.

Cletus: Bundy got crushed again last night. Should O’s shut him down, or rest him more?
Keith Law: I’d like to see them try to use him as an extra-rest starter, the way the Angels tried to do with Ohtani. I don’t think Bundy could be a straight reliever, pitching on consecutive days.

Rob k : Now that Terry and Sandy are gone, I think we’re starting to see how much of the mess in Flushing is due to ownership. How responsible is Selig for propping up the Wilpons when they lost all their money.
Keith Law: Pushing them to sell the club would be best for the league as a whole.

Michael: Why wouldn’t they move Machado? Has to be better than a draft pick
Keith Law: My question is whether they can get everyone involved in the decision – and who knows who exactly is involved, beyond Duquette – to agree on anything.

Matt: Thank you so much for always sticking up for trans right and for standing for equality! We definitely need more public figures like you. How long ago was it that you were a woman?
Keith Law: Yes, you can only believe in rights for trans people if you are one. It’s amazing that there are people this dumb and bigoted in 2018.

Jerome: What happened with Matt Mclain? Did the Dbacks realize they reached for him and decided not to sign him?
Keith Law: Teams never do that.

Nic: What happened with all these draftees not signing?I kind of just assumed,like you had mentiones on your periscope of the draft, that everyone drafted that high would sign.
Keith Law: Two of the unsigned players had some kind of post-draft medical issue, although I don’t even ask what those are when I hear about them. I believe Ginn and McLain simply wanted more money than those teams offered them, which I really don’t understand for Ginn, as a hard-throwing high school pitcher with a violent delivery. I certainly hope he stays healthy, but I worry about kids with that profile who turn down seven figures out of HS (like Karsten Whitson).

Gerald: Excited to see that you are doing a book signing in Acton, MA. Are you going to be doing any scouting while up in the area or is it just a one-day trip?
Keith Law: It’s possible I’ll hit the Cape beforehand.

Matt: If I decided to convert any top 15-20 starter into a closer, would they immediately become the best reliever in the league?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t say “any” but certainly most.

Hugo: What should the Orioles do with Chris Davis? It’s a lot of years and dollars to just DFA.
Keith Law: That’s a sunk cost; if he’s not worth the roster spot, then you DFA him. He’ll clear waivers anyway.

Sam: Who would you keep, between Will Smith and Keibert Ruiz? Dustin May and Mitchell White?
Keith Law: Ruiz for sure. May, as White hasn’t been 100% healthy since I saw him last spring (2017).

Oscar: Do you buy into the theory that participating in the HR derby can ruin a player’s swing?
Keith Law: No.

Rob: Surprised that Imani Abdullah retired yesterday. I know he’s been struggling but only 21. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I heard, secondhand, he was topping out in the mid-80s. Even in HS he wasn’t projectable and had no feel for a breaking ball.

Tom: Regarding the Braves and 8th vs. 9th pick–is that a broad assessment or does it have to do with the player specifically?
Keith Law: It’s about next year’s draft looking worse than this year’s. And I did have Stewart #2 on my board.

Stephen: O/U: 200Ks in 2019 for Kopech.
Keith Law: If he makes 28 starts he’ll clear that.

Brett: Do you view Khalil Lee as a potential impact prospect in KC or simply the best of what the Royals currently have?
Keith Law: He’s legit. Maybe a bit of a high-K guy but definite OBP, power, some speed, at worst a plus defender in RF but maybe an average CF.

Rob: After a rough start to the season, Hunter Greene has seemingly made the right adjustments and is doing well. Have you seen him pitch this year?
Keith Law: In March. I’ll see him again on Sunday.

Jack: Do you ever take into account poor pitch calling when scouting a pitcher?
Keith Law: Yes, especially in college/HS. I wrote about that when arguing for Gerrit Cole in the 2011 draft – I thought the coaches called for his four-seamer way too much and his SL/CH too little.

Danny: Everyone is saying that the Mets should trade Degrom, but it doesn’t seem like that potential package is out there. You have to figure that a DeGrom trade would have to be headlined by a top 15 caliber guy, and all those guys are on teams that are not really players for Degrom . Insterestingly, nationals (Robles), Phillies (sixto) and the Braves (acuna/Albies), could headline packages. Is that something you could see happening?
Keith Law: If the right offer isn’t out there – I agree, it seems unlikely at the moment – then you hold him and trade him this winter. I also don’t love the idea of them making a huge deal with an interim GM situation.

Michael: Unfortunately I can’t make it to P&P on Saturday night, and I’m bummed. Will you be doing any other meet-ups while you’re in DC? At the Futures Game?
Keith Law: Yes, I will try to meet fans (if there’s interest) between BP and first pitch.

Michael: As a Cubs fan, losing Torres for a WS title was worth it. Would it not be worth it to any other team to lose a top prospect for Machado and a title? FFF
Keith Law: Gotta get that flag, though. If you trade Machado and lose in the DS, was it worth it? Does Machado materially improve your chances of winning three playoff series?

Johnny O: Ever read any Tom Wolfe? Such a unique voice and applied equally well to fiction and non-fiction. The Right Stuff is a top 5 for me.
Keith Law: Bonfire of the Vanities. Hated it.

Rob: Taylor Trammell a top 25 prospect after this year?
Keith Law: Definitely not.

Johann Sebastian Vogelbach: What’s your take on the Mets trading deGrom? If they’re striving for a consistently competitive team, restocking the farm by selling sky-high on him for a Sale-like return I feel makes sense. But the Mets claim they prefer a “quick rebuild.” That would require the Wilpons to go empty their wallets this offseason which I have little faith in. I’m torn as a fan. Ultimately my take has been if they’re not getting a Hiura or Tatis Jr in return then no need to bother right now
Keith Law: I do think it will eventually be the right move to trade him and Thor. The “quick rebuild” stuff is wishful thinking.

Keith: Sorry bud, but no matter how much you want state enforced, mandatory vaccination, there’s lots of people (like me) who won’t allow that to happen. I’m not even against vaccines (everyone is free to choose), but to essentially make it criminal to dare question what for profit healthcare services produce is downright disgusting. But yeah, enjoy daydreaming about your future 1984-esque utopia where criticizing anything you don’t agree with is illegal. You’re a joke.
Keith Law: Cool strawman, dude. If you don’t want to vaccinate your kids, you just don’t get to send them to public school. There is no state that forces vaccination of everyone. And, by the way, Dr. Wakefield, the compulsory vaccines are barely profitable for manufacturers.

Michael: Just a comment. You should hit up Comet Ping Pong on Saturday night. Solid pizza and craft beer, and right next door to P&P. Most importantly, you’d be supporting the local establishment that was victimized in #pizzagate.
Keith Law: I absolutely plan to.

guren: If you were offered the same deal as Smart Baseball for a new work of fiction, but you needed to take a year off from your current employer, would you accept?
Keith Law: If I had an idea I felt passionate about and thought I could execute, sure.

Scott: Do you think Carter Kieboom can play second base? Currently blocked at 3B by Rendon, could you see him as the eventual long-term replacement for Murphy at second? And if so would he project there as a plus bat and a slightly below average glove? Thanks, just trying to figure out where he most likely projects for the Nats in the future.
Keith Law: He has to go to second base. Can’t stay at short. Doesn’t really have the arm for third.

Tom: Hey Keith, enjoy your chats AND your commentary regarding life in general. Anyway, rate these guys in order – Justus Sheffield, Jesus Luzardo, Casey Mize. Also who has the highest ceiling of the three?
Keith Law: All three will be on my top 50 next week…

Lenneal : Isn’t it funny how bothered certain people are about an NFL player kneeling during music during a game, in response to unrequited black murders, but those same *patriots* say nothing to Trump lambasting NATO and groveling to Putin? Or having Russia in the Oval Office after firing the FBI Director over a legitimate investigation that has nothing but bad facts. It’s almost as if religion and patriotism are being perverted for very flawed ideologies.
Keith Law: There may also be a racial angle to all of this. I don’t want to get too far out on a limb, though.

Johnny O: At what age do you start paying attention to prospects? International signing day is fun but hard to get excited about guys who likely won’t get to rookie ball until 2020.
Keith Law: When international guys first play in the US, I pay attention. Caliber of competition in the DSL (or the defunct VSL) is too variable.

Jeff: Does Rylan Bannon project as an MLB regular or more?
Keith Law: Less. College product boosted by a great hitters’ park.

Lenneal McKudu: Yeah OK about wOBA and wRC+ but has the industry warmed up to Drew Waters?
Keith Law: Some. Different scouts than saw him struggle and not show great effort in the GCL last summer.

Steve: What’s your opinion of Nathaniel Lowe’s breakout this year, raking in AA to the same extent he started the year in High-A?
Keith Law: Never seen him, but will on Sunday. 1b only and not young so he has a high bar to clear.

Janice The Muppet: Silly subject as it is so trivial but besides Snell anyone you are annoyed not making the all star game and who shouldnt have made it
Keith Law: I don’t care either – especially since ESPN didn’t ask me to do a snubs column this year which was fine with me – but how does Aguilar not make it?

Chris: If you were making the calls in Atlanta, would you move prospects for big league assets this year to make a run or wait it out and run with what you already have?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t trade any prospects whom internal evaluations had as part of the future. I think I said last week I’d deal the surplus dudes like Sims, not core pieces like Touki or Soroka (well, if healthy).

Oscar: France or Croatia: Who ya got?
Keith Law: I’m rooting for Croatia because they’ve never won – and I believe no country younger than the World Cup itself has ever won the Cup.

JR: You regularly get asked why hitters don’t bunt to beat a shift. Did you read Jerry Crasnick’s recent article where he interviewed several hitters and asked that question? It was very insightful for me to hear the players perspective. Basically, they all said if I get on first base, it still take two hits for me to score, so I’m trying to get to at least second base and I have to hit the ball in the air to do that. Oh, and bunting isn’t that easy to do against the type of velocity we face – it’s not an automatic single.
Keith Law: I did see that. The second part is a legitimate point, and something a lot of players would have to work on. The first part is wrongheaded – you’re better off on first base than on your ass in the dugout.

Dick: Is Telmito Agustin a GUY?
Keith Law: I think he can be, maybe isn’t yet but could become one.

Robert: Is there a player you saw at Winston Salem that hasn’t gotten a lot of prospect hype that you would like to see again?
Keith Law: I want to see Gonzalez again; he had a day off the second game I saw them.

Chris: Is there a particular skill or ability that is harder to scout than others? Defense, for instance, or in-game power or a pitcher’s control?
Keith Law: Fastball command for pitchers. Pure hit tool for batters, especially high school guys.

Tom: Keith, I know the Red Sox system is barren. Do they even have on prospect that projects as a possible everyday player or mid-rotation starter (not included just drafted Tristan Casas)? I look at their system and it’s just looks terrible.
Keith Law: They’re all hurt, aren’t they? I guess Mata might be one. Everyone else good in the system is on the shelf.

Rob: Does Micker Adolfo have star potential?
Keith Law: Yes.

The Bilmo: The vast majority of minor league players are there not because they are prospects, but to provide the few prospects with guys to play against. So I find it hard to get worked up over Tebow.
Keith Law: That’s true at the lowest levels. He’s now in AA, where that is much less true, and as I said above he’s blocking someone with more potential.

Donald: Hello Keith, draft related questions, when drafting 40 (give or take) players how many besides top 10 rounds do teams expect to sign? and what would be considered a great draft (besides the obvious trout harper) ? 3 average major league guys?
Keith Law: Three average big leaguers is a great draft. A lot of signings after the tenth round are just to fill out those short season rosters so the number will depend on how many spots you have open (holdovers, players debuting from the DSL).

Matt: The biggest winner in a Machado trade has to be Manny right? Won’t have to worry about a qualifying offer following him around.
Keith Law: Good point.

Chris: Given his performance and years of control, what type of return could Oakland get for Treinen? A Miller or Chapman-type return, or something less given his shorter track record? And would you still make that move?
Keith Law: He’s not at their level. But I like your line of thinking, trade him now while good and while there aren’t many closer types on the market.

Tony: I’ve read Kelenic might have been the #1 pick if he were 6 months younger. Does this really make that big of a difference? Looks like the Mets might have stole one SSS aside.
Keith Law: I disagree with that, but I think he might have been the #1 pick if he’d played the spring in southern California or Florida.

Zach: Imagine spending 200m on Trumbo and Davis, just to let Manny walk away. Wow what a bad utilization of resources. Well at least the O’s are big spenders in the int’l FA market….
Keith Law: My understanding is that Davis was the owner’s doing.

Jason: I know your general thought on the all-star game is to reward players who are actually very good over players with very hot starts. And I certainly agree with that. But where do you stand on a guy like Markakis? I feel like he has to be in given how good his half has been, and he’s not some random jobber. Agree?
Keith Law: Doesn’t really bother me.

Jack: Thank you so much for always sticking up for climate change prevention and for standing for the environment! We definitely need more public figures like you. How long ago was it that you were an iceberg?
Keith Law: Till that fucking ‘unsinkable’ boat hit me. I sure showed it who was boss.

danb: still buying Kingery?
Keith Law: Yes.

CD: Can you tell me anything about Andrew Vaughn, the Cal player that won the Golden Spikes award? Surprised he won against some upperclassmen who are more famous, and was the win justified?
Keith Law: His stats were great, but the Pac 12 was way down, and he’s a 1b only. I voted for Mize.

Jason: Coincidence that the 3 best breaking balls you saw in HS arms were all curves and the 3 have had extreme regression/injury?
Keith Law: All three had Tommy John. Is that because they threw great curveballs, or because they threw a lot of curveballs, or just because they threw a lot, period, because they were so good? Giolito was never overworked. Bundy was overworked very badly in HS.

John S: Despite his production (age/level issues), I was extremely surprised to see Buddy Reed selected to the Futures Game. Are we lacking decent OF prospects for the US team?
Keith Law: They didn’t have a true CF besides him, but I’m with you – he doesn’t belong at all, and is the worst player on the US roster. Daz Cameron deserved that spot.

Chris: At one point, Kevin Maitan was so well thought of that the Braves were willing to blatantly break rules to sign him. Now he’s performing badly in Orem with too many errors in the field, bad plate discipline, and not much hard contact. Are his problems fixable? Or is he just not the talent people thought he was?
Keith Law: Swing has regressed big time and he’s gotten thicker.

Mike: I know you’ve talked about mental health stuff before…my girlfriend is dealing with some serious depression combined with recent unemployment leading to financial distress. I’ve volunteered to assist with the cost of therapy as improved mental health would really impact her job search positively but she’s not willing to try anything. Any advice or suggestions for resources to look at for me to support her? Thanks so much.
Keith Law: It’s very difficult to help someone who doesn’t want it, and mental illnesses often lead sufferers to decline help for various reasons. Is there someone else in her life she trusts who might be able to guide her to a therapist? Or could you coax her into talking to her primary care doctor? My PCP in Arizona was the first to prescribe me something for my anxiety.

Jared: you said earlier that reports on Alec Bohm are “not good”…is that just his defense or everything? Did the Phillies waste another top 10 pick?
Keith Law: I think asking that five weeks after the draft is a bit premature.

Aaron Gershoff : Tell the guy arguing against mandatory vaccinations that they are in the best interest in the country. Healthy population = productive population.
Keith Law: Some people don’t care enough about others to let go of misguided beliefs of ‘freedom.’ I’d like to send them all a copy of the Social Contract, and some pictures of kids dying of measles.

Terry: Was Espinal good value in exchange for Steve Pearce?
Keith Law: Yes, quite good.

Chris: I recall you noting prior to his trade that Matt Harvey wasn’t washed up. Have you been surprised by how he’s pitched? Obviously not an ace but he looks like a decent 5th at this point.
Keith Law: Not surprised. And freed of the circus in NY, perhaps now he’ll fetch more in trade for the Reds than the Mets could get for him.

Oscar: Girlfriend and I picked up Lost Cities and Jaipur based on your recommendations and love them! Any recent two player games you recommend?
Keith Law: Patchwork. My daughter also loved Fox in the Forest, a cute but more luck-driven trick-taking game.

David: % Chance that Urias is a part of the Dodger’s future rotation? Looks like he’s back throwing between 88-91 according to reports. Does his particular type of should surgery make regaining command and/or control very difficult?
Keith Law: He also has to show he can hold that velocity. It’s a long way off.

Fat Stackz: What do you think of Kavanaugh buying Nationals tickets with a credit card? Should this preclude him from being nominated? I am skeptical of someone with so little financial responsibility being nominated as a Supreme Court Justice
Keith Law: I can think of better reasons to oppose his nomination.

James: “Giving up” on a player is too extreme in this case since he’s finally getting consistent ABs, but man, I was hoping for more from Desmond Lindsay this year
Keith Law: I was too.

Joe: Any Cincinnati food recommendations?
Keith Law: Sotto and Nada, both owned by the same folks.

Moe Mentum: Favorite Saturday Night Live cast member of all time?
Keith Law: Tough call between Eddie Murphy and John Belushi. Both geniuses in different ways.
Keith Law: Also, a sentimental thought for Phil Hartman, who was … dare I say it … the heart and soul of those great SNL squads.

Joe: Do you ever feel bad about yourself and your life for saying tim tebow is a washed up QB yet his athletic career has made him more of a successful man than you will ever be?
Keith Law: No. Not even for a fraction of a second.

Mike: “Symptom of the Universe” was recently named the best metal riff of all time. Fair? In trying to decide if that was even the best Black Sabbath riff of all time (Sabbath Bloody Sabbath, Faeries Wear Boots, even Neon Nights) I was reminded of the Scott Ian quote – “Tony Iommi wrote every heavy riff there was to write”.
Keith Law: Supernaut.

Richard Dempsey: Could you please give the context of you apologizing to foreigners while abroad? I too have been abroad during the Trump administration many times and have never come across a problem. Might I suggest that you were going out of your way to start the conversation if it indeed happened?
Keith Law: You might suggest that, and you’d be wrong, and kind of insulting too.

DaveAlden53: No question, just a compliment. In one of your recent letters, you noted how your daughter uses the word “peopley” to describe a place that be uncomfortably busy. My wife has Alzheimer’s, so struggles with crowds. I forwarded your letter to her and she now uses “peopley” often. Thanks for growing her vocabulary and communication options.
Keith Law: Well, I’m not going to get a better question/comment this week than that one, so I will end it here. Thank you so much for sending that along.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I hope to see many of you this weekend: I’m co-hosting a family board game night here in Wilmington on Friday at the Brandywine Hundred Library at 5 pm; speaking and signing books at Politics & Prose on Saturday at 6 pm with Jay Jaffe; and then I’ll be at the Futures Game on Sunday. The top 50 prospects update will go up Thursday and I’ll be back that afternoon to chat again. Thanks for reading!