Keith Law: Buy yourself a dream, how’s it looking? It’s Klawchat.

Andy: What are your thoughts on a salary floor, that’s similar to the luxury tax. There is a floor but if player salaries don’t hit that floor, they get less in revenue sharing from the higher spending teams. I think the rich owners would go for it, since they hate subsidizing “teams not trying,” and it would still allow for bottoming out, owners would just make less money doing so.
Keith Law: I don’t like it, because there are often legitimate arguments for bad teams to avoid spending money on veteran players who aren’t going to be any better than internal options, just for the sake of spending that money. Yeah, the Orioles are going to be terrible this year, but should they spend $8 million on a maybe league-average veteran LF, or try to straighten out Austin Hays and give him 400 AB out there?

Arnold: The Giants selected two players in the Rule 5 draft, Drew Ferguson & Travis Bergen. Is either of them likely to ever be a useful major league piece?
Keith Law: Nope.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Pres Klaw gets sworn in 2020, what are his goals for his first 100 days?
Keith Law: Ctrl-Z.

addoeh: The Cubs didn’t re-sign Chavez, but you know I wish they had Jesse’s curve. Where can they find a pitcher like that?
Keith Law: Well, Rick, I really didn’t understand them choosing not to sign him at that price. Seemed like a great fit, he pitched extremely well, has no platoon split, Maddon liked him.

Lee D: Keith — You are the GM of Team X. You sign Bryce Harper to a 10 year/$300M contract. Which Team Xs would this be a good idea?
Keith Law: There is no team where it would truly be a bad idea. He’s very likely to exceed that AAV in on-field production.

Joe: Billy Wagner is seriously still getting HoF votes will the madness ever stop?
Keith Law: He’s better than Lee Smith and Trevor Hoffman, both of whom are in.

Mike: Keith, what’s a realistic return for the Blue Jays for Stroman. If they took back Homer Bailey’s salary, could they get one of the top 3 guys – Senzel/Greene/Trammell?
Keith Law: I don’t think the Reds are moving any of those three guys unless they should get a top of rotation starter.
Keith Law: Even then, maybe not.

Aaron G: Since the owners are treating the luxury tax like a hard cap, how long until the players finally figure out that the 6-year arbitration system artificially depresses salaries and should be changed/removed?
Keith Law: I think the union knows this, but never prioritized fighting it. I have to think they will do so next time around.

Ben: Your thoughts on the new proposal for Cuban signees no longer having to take up residence as they await MLB’s declaration of free agency? Does this require approval from the (puke) Trump administration and the xenophobic GOP first?
Keith Law: As far as I know, it doesn’t require any such approvals from the government. I think the new agreement is only good news – yes, it will shift some problems around, but ultimately this benefits players and teams.

Dave: What are your thoughts on Paul Richan? From the lists that have come out so far, he’s been as high as #5 or out of the top 30 all together.
Keith Law: I haven’t finished any individual team lists yet, but he’s not going to be top 5 even in that system.

Brett: Can I get your thoughts on InstaPots? My wife bought one and has tried numerous recipes. I think it makes terrible food and am not a fan.
Keith Law: I do not own one. I own a pressure cooker and a Dutch oven and use those where the Instant Pot would serve. But I also work at home and thus have time to cook that most working adults don’t have.

Mike: Do you ever feel like you’re at a huge disadvantage information wise? Now, it might be easier to find Trackman information, but with teams neuroscouting it would be hard for you to get that info.
Keith Law: I always worry about that, and try to get that info where I think there might be a gap in my knowledge on a player. Of course there will always be times I don’t learn that until later, as with some issues around player makeup.

Guest: Is Luzardo in the majors before September this year?
Keith Law: Yes, I expect so.

alex: Any big cooking plans for you with the upcoming holidays?
Keith Law: Don’t think so. Christmas has always been a small affair around here. I never liked those Christmas days when I was a kid and we were bundled up and shuttled off to visit family as soon as the last present was opened.

Alex K: Bellinger for Kluber (or Bauer): who hangs up first?
Keith Law: Dodgers.

Rick C: The more the offseason goes on, the more I get the sense that the Braves’ remaining moves look something like re-signing Markakis, trading for Gray, and adding a couple low to mid-tier relievers. Do you think I’m off the mark here? I think it’d be a huge mistake considering the strength of the division overall.
Keith Law: Well they made one huge move with Donaldson. I do think Anthopoulos will do something else on par with that, but it might not be until mid-January.

Sam: Dustin May a guy to break through this year?
Keith Law: Wasn’t he already on my midseason top 50? I think he was, so I would say he’s already broken through.

Keith: HOF question: I see a lot of momentum for Edgar and sheffield is more or less stalled. Offensive WAR gives Sheffield a significant advantage that gets eroded by his negative defense. If Sheffield had just been a DH, he’d be close to a no brainer HOFer. How do you reconcile this?
Keith Law: I have struggled with that exact question. My ballot & explanatory column go up next week and I promise you I answer it in there.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Do you know if there are any guidelines on how fast a kid should pitch as he’s growing up? Velo is the main reason for injuries right? So should a 13 y/o kid be pushing 75? 80?
Keith Law: I don’t know of any guidelines. It’s probably a function of physical effort level and I don’t know how anyone truly measures that (yet).

Hank: You’ve made fun of the fact that the Jays (and others) view their system differently than you do. Where approximately do you place them, and what are the major differences between what you think and what they think?
Keith Law: To be clear, I’ve only made fun of the team’s own overly optimistic view of their system, and how sensitive Mark Shapiro was when I disagreed with them. I don’t have them top 5, or particularly close, but beyond that I’d prefer to wait until I have my actual rankings done.

Jeff: What were your thoughts on the Mets hiring of Jared Banner?
Keith Law: I only know Jared a little bit but have heard nothing but positive things from his colleagues in Boston.

Ron: You think Kepler will put it together this year? If he does can he be a 4-5 win player? Buxton just needs to be healthy, right?
Keith Law: I thought he was going to put it together in 2018, so I guess yes, I still do. Buxton needs to get healthy. Sano needs to get in shape. There’s a lot of upside on that team, which is one reason I don’t agree with fans who think Cleveland has the division on lockdown.

nb: Hey Keith – Happy holidays to you and your family! When do we start receiving the present of prospect evaluations and rankings n ESPN.com? Thanks!
Keith Law: I believe the last full week of January. That’s a decision for my editors, but I’m already working on the phone call portion of the project.

J: Discuss my complicated emotions around the actually reasonable Wilson Ramos signing by Brodie van CAA and the implicit get over yourself to the Marlins.
Keith Law: Thought it was a very smart deal on its own merits, and much smarter than sending prospects for Realmuto, who is just marginally better than Ramos.

Rob: Trevor Cahill a good case for just using for multiple innings a couple times a week rather than as a “starter”?
Keith Law: I think he is.

Jim: Will Bubba Thompson garner top 100 consideration? Love his athleticism
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but I’m still working on it.

Chris: I saw Roma in a theater the other night and I experienced anguish and anxiety for much of it, incl the very last climb, and I dont even have issues with anxiety generally. I hear you re the surf noise. Great piece of filmmaking though.
Keith Law: I’m glad I didn’t see it in a theater for that reason, but am also glad Netflix did the wide theatrical release to give people the choice.

Rich J: Which team will sign Gritty? Which team SHOULD sign Gritty?
Keith Law: Doesn’t every team need Gritty, really?

Zac: is the 18 year old the Blue Jays took in the rule-5 a legit major league pitcher?
Keith Law: Is he right now? No. That’s a huge problem I have with the rule 5 draft today – it encourages teams to take players whose development will be stalled or even hurt by the jump to a level for which they’re not ready.
Keith Law: OK, it’s time to get serious: I am now eating Oreos.

Jackson: My pick for biggest lower level MiLB bat to rise in 2019 is Jhon Torres. Am I too optimistic?
Keith Law: He’s a very good prospect.

Foster: Is how batters fare against different arm slots tracked at all my front offices? Do you consider it to be valuable/meaningful?
Keith Law: I doubt the sample sizes would be large enough.

Dave: As a Cubs fan, I’m beyond appalled at the continued employment of Addison Russell. Melisa Reidy-Russell’s account of his abuse is sickening, and I’m especially bothered that Theo likely knew those details when he tendered him a contract. I realize baseball has had its share of bad apples from the beginning, so maybe I’m just being sanctimonious now. But Russell is my line in the sand. Either he goes, or I find another team to support. If only I could guarantee the next team will respond to such issues more appropriately.
Keith Law: I personally do not understand the team continuing to employ him at this point. If enough fans make their displeasure clear, maybe they’ll reconsider.

Brett: Does Scott Kingery make solid progress in 2019 or should we expect more of 2018?
Keith Law: I was hoping the Phillies would give him regular reps at one position, probably 2b, that he can truly play well, so that he wasn’t simultaneously trying to play a position where he had no experience/lacks the skills while also learning to hit major league pitching. I don’t know that that’s likely right now.

nelson: With teams less likely to hand out huge contracts to flawed players and teams also less likely to hand out longer term contracts to players in their 30s, how do you think this affects the future of the sport? Do you think this will lead to fundamental changes?
Keith Law: I think the union will/should push for fundamental changes like getting players to free agency sooner.

Tyler: Mo is a no doubt HOF for me because of the playoffs. However I do not have him even in the top 12 or 13 on this ballot based on regular season numbers. I struggle with how to evaluate RP and how much weight to put on playoff numbers. For example if I was starting a team I would take Oswalt over Mo. Oswalt was one of the best pitchers in the game for 10 years in a row. I do not think Oswalt is a HOFer and do think MO is, but I do think Oswalt was the better pitcher. I am glad Mo is going to get in I just have a hard time putting him in the top 10, is this me under stating his importance in the playoffs? Or is it me not valuing Closer enough in general?
Keith Law: Perhaps, and I’m only playing devil’s advocate here, you aren’t valuing Rivera’s performance relative to any other reliever over such a long period of time highly enough. Whether you believe Hoffman or Wagner was his best contemporary, Rivera was worlds better than both of them.

HOF voting: Do you make a distinction (as others have) between voting for highly credibly PED accused- like say Bonds, Clemons- and someone like Manny who was actually caught?
Keith Law: I do – and I have mentioned it before, so my view there remains the same. I won’t be consistent just for its own sake but in this case I’ve been consistent.

Mike: How many more years do the Indians have before anyone (or everyone) in the AL Central catches up?
Keith Law: like I said above, they may be the favorites but the division isn’t just theirs in 2019.

Sean: I’m almost through The Master and Margarita. I’ve thoroughly enjoyed it, but I hadn’t even heard of it before I saw it on your top book list (and I like to think I am relatively well-read). Seems to me that it’s not one that is touted much in America despite it’s clear place as a literary classic, could you speculate as to why this is?
Keith Law: It wasn’t written in English, and the anti-communist satire within the novel probably doesn’t land for American audiences.

John : Should I be terrified the Reds are going to trade Senzel and/or Trammell for Kluber?
Keith Law: Yes, I wouldn’t favor that.

Rick C: What is going on with Carter Stewart’s grievance?
Keith Law: Nobody knows.

Tyler: In regards to the salary floor, what if a team does not reach it they have to spend the difference on their minor league players salary?
Keith Law: Now that is the greatest idea I’ve ever heard.

Guest: Do you think Tulo is a worthwhile upgrade (or an upgrade at all?) over Kevin Newman / Erik Gonzalez for Pittsburgh?
Keith Law: Definitely not.

Rell: What do you do with being around immediate family for the holidays that insist on bringing up political views just to have a debate with you?
Keith Law: I don’t have any immediate family who support this Administration or the current GOP in general.

Chris: There is gonna be a riot if the Yankees bring in (so called bad seed) Machado which leads to them not re-signing fan fave and great guy Didi. This is where you tell me Machado’s a clearly better player and the FO doesnt give a whit about what the fans want.
Keith Law: There won’t be a riot. Yankee fans will be thrilled if they sign Machado.

Dan: Do you ever move a book up or down your favortie novels list a year or more after you have read it? Based on a second reading or how something may have struck you after thinking on it further.
Keith Law: The latter, yes. I rarely read novels twice, but I do often find myself thinking about novels differently after some time. Zadie Smith’s White Teeth really grew on me months after I read it.

Em: Love your work, baseball and non. Non baseball though: no love for Middle Kids on the music list…didn’t like or didn’t listen?
Keith Law: Didn’t like, sorry.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Thanks for your music updates. I really agree with you that it’s been a down year for music. Will Tool save us when they finally release their album next year?
Keith Law: Never been a Tool fan.

Andy: Do you ever go back and listen to previous albums, that you may have missed? It seems like most of your songs/albums you link to are current ones. Do you still find bands/albums that you may have missed from five years ago, but just don’t link them as much?
Keith Law: I only link to current songs/albums because that’s the purpose of those posts – I do monthly playlists of new music, then year-end lists of the best albums or songs of that specific year.

Dan: Sad news from Long Beach- Seoulmate closed and is now up for sale. 🙁
Keith Law: That is a bummer – although their website says they’re hoping to reopen in a larger space. That location didn’t have much seating. The owner was a reader of mine, so I’m very much hoping to hear some good news on that front soon.

Dave: If you think Harper is a generational talent worth the zillion dollars he’s going to get, do you let the fact that you already have three good outfielders (coughNYcough) stop you?
Keith Law: No, you have the DH spot to work with.

Jack: Which prospect will be the next addition to the White Sox rotation: Dunning, Cease, or Kopech (at the start of 2020)?
Keith Law: Cease seems closest.

Cole: Is it time to write off Austin Beck?
Keith Law: Good lord, no. He’s had one full year in pro ball.

Joe: Where they any changes to Hedges swing it approach in the second half of last season that indicates his improvement bcould be sustainable? How good is he defensively, I’ve heard writers claim it slipped last season?
Keith Law: Nothing changed with his swing or approach. I don’t think he’s slipped defensively.

AGirlHasNoName: So, um, Addison Russell is just toast, right? I am glad his exes have put their own words out there, and wish them strength. But he has to be toast, right? Might as well grow an evil mustache and get sharks with lasers on their head or something, there’s no coming back from here, is there?
Keith Law: If he goes out and hits like an All-Star this year, there will be fans (mostly men) lining up to forgive him and/or call his exes liars and golddiggers. Even after he admitted Reidy’s claims of violence were true, and then she and another of his girlfriends both posted accounts of his bad behavior, there were STILL dipshit men in my mentions yesterday calling them liars, or just saying women lie all the time (not about this, they don’t). I gave the block button quite a workout.

Matt from MKE: Love your stuff, Keith! Question about the Brewers and Hiura – why would they even waste time with a temporary 1 year signing to play 2B, when their top minor leaguer plays that spot? Wouldn’t you give him the chance to succeed/fail first?
Keith Law: I would, yes.

Dan: Have you seen Minding the Gap? It may win Best Documentary and it’s fantastic. (Granted I’m biased as it’s filmed in my hometown)
Keith Law: No, I’ll watch it next month. I still feel like Won’t You Be My Neighbor? is going to win, though.

Chris: Ive tried to stop getting worked up about things like HoF, awards, etc, but in what way is it remotely fair for a player who never topped 6% to get in as an end around by a small group of cronies? Why does that avenue even exist?
Keith Law: Ask the Hall. It’s their process. I don’t mind a sort of last chance kitchen for candidates whom the voters whiffed on – Trammell already, Whitaker soon, I hope – but a committee that small, filled with voters who have personal relationships with candidates, will ALWAYS produce bad outcomes.

William T.: Keith, a lot of these “early” mock drafts starting to surface. Do you like HS Lhp Hunter Barco to be a fit for my Rangers at #8?
Keith Law: Mock drafts this early are not worth the electrons used to post them.

Adam: Steroid suspicions aside, would you support someone who chose not to vote Barry Bonds into the Hall of Fame due to his questionable domestic violence history?
Keith Law: Yes, I would. Unfortunately, we have a few players on the current ballot with such accusations (which, again, I tend to assume are true), and more already in the Hall. Incorporating that into voting would meet my personal morality but raises a question of what the Hall is actually there for. I don’t have a good answer.

Trevor: Brewers rhp prospect Zack Brown seem to be popping up on a lot of radars. Someone you like?
Keith Law: Yep, he’s a guy.

HankQQ: Liked your top 100 songs list yesterday. One band that I thought deserved a spot was Idles. If you haven’t already give Joy as an act of resistance a listen.
Keith Law: I didn’t like that album at all.

Matt: Do you consider the White Sox serious contenders for Harper or Machado?
Keith Law: Yes.

bunt cake: muncy’s floor should be solid/average mlb player with some pop and good walk rate?
Keith Law: I think his floor is below that. Platoon/bench player.

Kacey: I don’t disagree with you on Russell, but would you give him a second chance if he was truly contrite right away, it was a one time thing and he sought counseling?
Keith Law: My view is that a man who puts his hands on a woman’s neck in anger cannot be redeemed or rehabilitated. He’s a danger.

Jon: Keith, how do you feel about die hard Trump supporters reading your chats?
Keith Law: Do they? I use a lot of big words.

Adam: Higher Ceiling? Waters or Pache?
Keith Law: Pache.

Josh: Given the increased specialization of baseball roles, at what point does Hall of Fame worthiness become primarily based on “excellence relative to position/role” like some other sports? In other words, for example, Billy Wagner would be deserving while Gary Sheffield would not – despite the latter being substantially more valuable to an actual baseball team.
Keith Law: I really do not want to see the Hall start honoring the best specialists. I don’t think that’s ever been its purpose nor should it be going forward.

Tinker McSwiggins: I’ve heard of about 3% of the artists on your top 100 songs. Where do you find these artists(literally, not trolling)? Also do you have a link to your go to pie crust recipe? Thanks bro, hang ten dude.
Keith Law: I find them all over the place – there isn’t one spot. I listen to a lot of music, especially when driving or when doing mindless stuff around the house like cleaning, doing dishes, even sometimes while cooking. Pie crust recipe

Kevin: Would you include player opt-outs if you were a GM or overpay to induce the player to sign w/ your team. I am a huge White Sox fan and would be extremely giddy if they signed Harper and/or Machado, however unlikely and out of character it may be. I don’t understand giving them an opt-out after say 3 years though. That will probably be when the White Sox young players start hitting their stride and the team competes, but now you have a star player you have to pay more just to keep. On the other hand, the player could turn into a Jason Heyward where he underperforms expectations and he chooses not to opt-out.
Keith Law: Player options are bad for the team. An “opt-out” is just a euphemism – it’s a player option. If the player stinks, you’re stuck with him. If he’s good, he probably opts out.

Dom: What’s your best advice for somebody seeking a job in scouting, FO or development? Thanks!
Keith Law: Learn to code.

Bryan: Any boardgame recommendations that are good for the whole family (adults and teens) that can also be played with a 7-year or 8-year-old? [i.e., not just children’s games that older people can play with them]
Keith Law: Ticket to Ride, Splendor, maybe Carcassonne (love the game, the farm strategy can be a little abstract for young players).

Krontz: Forbes does MLB team valuations and has said some clubs have net losses in given years. Is that really possible? Aren’t the owners just using the ol’ “shell game” of making it look like a loss on the books while profits from concessions, parking, leases, etc all add up to plenty of profit in the end for MLB owners.
Keith Law: Yes, they use transfer pricing tricks (e.g., paying themselves a well below market price for something like parking, putting parking revenues in a related entity) to pull that off.

Matt: So uhh… Syria. The coming clusterfuck is gonna make Iraq look like a calm serene day at the beach isn’t it?
Keith Law: Yep. I will say that I think the Obama Administration probably mishandled Syria, out of fear that the GOP-held Congress would obstruct any serious efforts.
Keith Law: There’s probably no way I could do justice to the topic of US policy in Syria, about which I only have cursory knowledge anyway, in a chat question.

Imre: Thanks for all you do Keith! Merry Christmas to you and your family! Any suggestions for board games for our 4 yo daughter?
Keith Law: Merry Christmas to you as well. A lot of publishers are doing kids’ versions of the games I love, and some are really good, like Ticket to Ride: First Journey and My First Carcassonne.

Lee: What’s a fair extension for Mookie Betts at this point? Does he bite at 10 years and 250 million?
Keith Law: I think he’d ask for more. A player of his caliber should ask for $30MM+ in free agency.

Sean: Do you have any sense on the approach Zaidi will have this off-season. It’s been quiet so far and they need to make some moves eventually.
Keith Law: Do they? I don’t see them as contenders in 2019. Standing pat for now may be the right move.

Richard: Looking at the Yankees and Red Sox positioning themselves for years of dominance and the Rays being seemingly light years ahead in their turnaround, what can I – a lifelong Blue Jays fan and expert of mediocre baseball team watching – latch onto as a fan while their current management team attempts an AL Central – centric rebuild?
Keith Law: I don’t have a great answer for that, although I think the idea of the Jays rebuilding through the farm, which they are clearly trying to do, should be seen by fans as a positive. We can disagree over the progress of the rebuild, but they are right not to try to fake-compete in the short term.

Danny Boy: Keith, why the vitriol against Israel? Between your remonstration of Israel’s inclusion in the WBC, criticism of Solomonov’s documentary, and your pro BDS tweets, it sounds like you’ve got an Israel problem.
Keith Law: I actually praised Solomonov’s documentary, you stupid troll.

Dr. Bob: You may be concerned about falling behind because you don’t see all the data that teams are developing, but it could be worse. You could be Jim Bowden analyzing teams and trades and signings like they still happened over drinks at the hotel bar.
Keith Law: No comment.

Jon: I just love the fact that ANY man that is accused of sexual assault you just blindly believe the woman and hang said man out to dry. Typical liberal for you
Keith Law: Yes, we liberals like data, and since the data say false claims of sexual assault or domestic violence are extremely rare (as low as 3%, probably no higher than 10%), the rational conclusion is that such claims are true.

Tom C: No such thing as a bad one year contract, but does Matt Harvey have anything left?
Keith Law: I think so. Good gamble for LAA.

Jordan: Do you think Mark Vientos could get serious Top-100 consideration by mid-2019? Love his bat.
Keith Law: I love his bat too. It’s not any more, but the mets had a top ten season when October ended.

Allan: Best guess: how many starts does Corbin Burnes make this year?
Keith Law: 25.

Danny: No te gusta Coheed and Cambria?
Keith Law: No, lo siento.
Keith Law: Me gustaría mas cuando fueron llamados “Savatage.”

Brian: A new record (!!!!) – I have heard of 3 of the artists and 0 of the songs on your 2018 top 100. I am officially old. Was there ever a period in your life in which you stopped following new music?
Keith Law: Yes, around when my daughter was born. Never had the time or the mental energy.

J: Any opinion on the removal of Baby It’s Cold Outside from many radio stations Holiday play list?
Keith Law: I’m fine with removing it. If listeners find it problematic through a modern lens – which I do, since “what’s in this drink” sure as hell sounds like a reference to roofies – then why play it? Granted I never cared for the melody anyway…

Dazed and Confused: I generally trust your opinions on baseball, and agree with most of your politics. However, I think I differ with you on the severity of Russell’s punishment. While I’m ok with baseball never employing him again, however, as a society, rather than giving up on people like Russell, we need to find a way to help and rehabilitate people in his situation so that they can be contributing members of this society.
Keith Law: I haven’t really commented on what should happen to Russell outside of baseball. He can go do something else for a living. I’m just saying playing MLB is a privilege, and that wearing the uniform means you’re representing a brand and an organization that can decide they no longer want you doing so.

Ryan: Keith, We are about to embark on a long car ride. Any (cell phone or iPad) app games you can recommend for a 6 year old? Bonus points if it doesn’t require internet connectivity. Happy holidays to you and yours
Keith Law: There is also a Ticket to Ride First Journey app that’s quite good. And a 6-year-old can play Carcassonne against the easiest AI (the “maid”) and fare well.

Joshua: Regardless if the Nats resign Harper, does a trade of Eaton make some sense. The Nats could have an OF of Soto, Robles, and Taylor in RF. Although there would be a dip in offensive production, defense and speed would be added. Maybe an Eaton deal to Cleveland for one of their starters could be a starting point of discussion. Thoughts?
Keith Law: No, I wouldn’t trade Eaton unless Harper is back.
Keith Law: The Nats are close to a complete team right now. Trading Eaton and playing Taylor makes them worse.

Matt: Do you know of any card games that you can play solo that’s not like Solitaire?
Keith Law: There’s one called Friday, a physical game and an app, that’s very difficult. Also one called Onirim that I’ve only played as an app and enjoy but find easier to defeat.

Moe Mentum: Based on performance alone, is Rafael Palmeiro worthy of Hall of Fame enshrinement? If so, will it happen in your lifetime?
Keith Law: He was always just on the wrong side of the line for me.

Aaron G: Ok now my stupid question of the day: if the Yankees decide on Machado instead of Harper, can the Yankees reasonably expect to get another SP1 or 2 via trade using Andujar as a centerpiece?
Keith Law: Not with him as a centerpiece. Maybe as part of a bigger deal.
Keith Law: They did just use their best prospect to get Paxton, who is like a #1 for 2/3 of a season.

Jimmy the Pratt: Are the Mets offficially a contender?
Keith Law: Is there an official designation system I wasn’t aware of? Like how Parmigiano-Reggiano has to come from one of five Italian provinces to bear that name?

Joe: Angels get harvey and Cahill for $20 mil + incentives….decent work by billy?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Josh: I just left a comment on your music post, but I didn’t notice there’s a Klawchat today, so I’m here to needle you a bit in somewhat real-time. Isn’t dinging Ghost for their satanic trappings like complaining back in the day about Griffey’s backwards hat? What does it matter as long as it rocks? And why can’t tongue-in-cheek homages to Satan be taken seriously in a genre that encourages over-the-top thematic elements?
Keith Law: I find that stuff incredibly childish. I’d compare it more to a 12-year-old cursing left and right because he thinks it makes him sound more like an adult.

John: Currently eating at Shake Shack for the first time as I type this. It’s definitely good, but doesn’t quite meet the hype, same as In n Out, IMO. Rank those 2 with 5 Guys?
Keith Law: Shake Shack > In-n-Out > 5 Guys. (I no longer eat beef, but did until about two years ago, and have had burgers at all 3.) Shake Shack uses way better inputs.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Has Klentak shown to be a good GM so far in your opinion? I have mixed feelings so far.
Keith Law: Overall, yes. But their amateur draft results, notably in the first round, have been poor, and that has to be addressed at some point.

Brian: You stated above the Giants should possibly just stand pat. So would the strategy be just fill their remaining holes with one year fliers and sell what you can at the deadline?
Keith Law: Right. And play internal options where available, although I know there aren’t many.

Joe: Most impactful call up for the angels in 2019? Canning, Suarez, adell, rengifo, someone else?
Keith Law: Not Adell although he’s their best prospect. Canning seems like a good bet.

Jackie: Joe Kelly had a mediocre regular season in 2018, followed by a terrific post-season. The Dodgers just made a massive overpay. Why does it seem like teams always overvalue the three weeks in October vs. a career’s worth of middling results?
Keith Law: That one really surprised me. Didn’t foresee the Dodgers overpaying like that for a reliever.

John: My wifes work has us overseas. Every country we have lived in has ESPN+ (used to be insider) blocked. Why is that? What content right issues don’t allow me to use ESPN+ except for out two week home leave every year?
Keith Law: You aren’t the only person to report this but unfortunately I don’t know the answer. I’m sorry.

JR: Do you think the Mets viewed Dunn and Kelenic as their top two prospects and it was the price they had to pay to get Cano/Diaz, or did they view them differently than the rest of the industry which is why they were willing to trade them?
Keith Law: I believe those were their top two prospects, and that the industry as a whole viewed them the same (consensus, of course, not every person will agree), but BVW didn’t.

J5: Tony Gonsolin a legit sp prospect?
Keith Law: I’ve heard very good reliever but have not seen.
Keith Law: I may have that wrong, actually … going off memory there but now I’m doubting myself. I know I have very good notes either way.
Keith Law: OK, I need to wrap this up with a busy afternoon ahead. Thank you all so much for reading, today and all year long. I’ll still be writing as needed through the holidays but won’t chat again until January 3rd. Have a safe and happy holiday, and please watch yourselves on the roads, especially on New Year’s Eve. We will chat again in the new year.

My latest board game review for Paste looks at Welcome To, a twist on roll-and-write games that can play any number of players – up to 100, even.

Keith Law: No time for nothing, no Patek Philippe. Just Klawchat.

Joe Cleveland: Mets are crazy, right? Getting Cano giving up players like Kelenic or Dunn seems very dumb unless they get another valuable and controllable player like Haniger.
Keith Law: Hey, any time you can trade your #1 and #2 prospects for a 36-year-old second baseman with a bad contract and a volatile commodity like a one-inning closer, you just have to do it.

Adam: I guess Joe Simpsons comments didnt slide by unnoticed
Keith Law: Fox Sports is claiming his comments had nothing to do with the decision to get him largely off TV, which I find hard to believe. But worse is Simpson’s comments (from the AJC): “I have a very strong protective instinct on the game and its customs and history and traditions, so my comments were only intended as a defensive mechanism of the game.” That is not any sort of apology, or even a remote acknowledgement of the tacit (or less than tacit) racism of his comments. It’s an old white man who doesn’t even know that the customs, history, and tradition of baseball include excluding players of color, then allowing them to play while treating them vastly differently than white players. Whatever the reasons, I’m glad Fox chose to turn this page.

Patrick: Keith, with your front office experience, what do you think the Brewers should do this off-season, esp about SP? Go with the young players? Or push for a Bumgarner type (star SP available for a short time)?
Keith Law: Burnes and Woodruff join the rotation, and they’re both good. I wouldn’t view a top-end starter as a priority. Bulk innings, perhaps, but I wouldn’t go spend prospects.

Patrick: Thanks again for all these chats Keith.
Do you have a favorite holiday/seasonal recipe?
Keith Law: Not really. My daughter and I will make some cookies, like the Italian flag (tri-color, rainbow, seven-layer … they have lots of names) cookies made from almond paste, chocolate, and raspberry & apricot jams.

Ryan: Hi Klaw, Thoughts on the rumored Cano/Diaz to Mets trade? I’m confused why the Mets would include Gimenez.
Keith Law: Gimenez isn’t in the class of Dunn or Kelenic. He’s a solid prospect but doesn’t have that kind of upside.

Dave: Thanks for the chat. Does Brian McCann have enough left to be the Braves’ primary catcher in 2019?
Keith Law: No, nor did they sign him to do that.

Jeff: Currently waiting in line at Little Miss BBQ. Got here at 830. Second in line (opens at 11). Good move or GREAT MOVE?
Keith Law: Great move. Get the brisket.

Mike: Have to run to a meeting, so I’ll take your answer off the air. The (purely hypothetical) return of Medina and JoJo Romero for MadBum is fair, right? I get the feeling in the Bay Area that fans won’t be happy with any return given their sentimental attachment to Bum.
Keith Law: Honestly, I’m not sure if I like that for the Phillies, just because Bumgarner isn’t what he used to be, and I feel like you might get something better if you package Romero (whom I really like) and Medina (more stuff than performance) in another deal.

section 34: I can’t decide between two Orioles questions:
1) What’s a reasonable timeline for the O’s to return to contention?
2) If you were in charge, would you DFA Chris Davis, or take some other action?
Keith Law: I think it’s 4-5 years, and I would DFA him. At least get the 40-man spot back.

Dave: Hi, Keith! Thanks for all of your baseball writing! This is non-baseball, though: With the closing of Cocina Lolo, what do you do for quality Mexican food in your area now? Asking for a Delaware friend.
Keith Law: Honest answer: I don’t. I just get my fix on the road now.

Michael Conforto: Would you ever do science and politics chats or writing? Your takes are more well thought out than most political journalists, and watching you torch anti-vaxxers on Twitter is extremely entertaining.
Keith Law: Thank you. I would if there were a serious professional opportunity to do so. Doing it just on my own probably brings more downside than reward.

DH: Does Peter Alonso have the bat to be an above average DH if he were in the AL? Can he hit 30 hr? And does he give all of that value back if he plays at 1st?
Keith Law: Yes, yes, and not all of it, just some.

Jake Albrecht: Do you abandon books if they’re not working for you? I’m slogging through War and Peace and I thought I successfully left it behind but every time I want to quit I feel guilty about it.
Keith Law: I do, usually early on. If I hit page 100 I’m probably finishing it. I got through War & Peace without too much trouble. Les Miserables is the novel of that length I’d advise everyone to skip.

Kasvot Vaxt: How many wins would this Cano / Diaz deal add to the Mets next year?
Keith Law: I’ll say 5-6. Which makes them … a fourth place team.

Jared: How would you rank the Brewers three young pitchers — Peralta, Burnes, Woodruff — going forward?
Keith Law: Burnes well over Woodruff, who’s then over Peralta.

Matt: Hey KLaw, Mark Bowman reported that acquiring Kluber would likely cost the Braves Kyle Wright, Touki, and Pache. Would you make that trade if you ran the Braves?
Keith Law: No way. Especially with some very small signs that Kluber may be declining relative to his peak. You’re paying for three years and it’s likely none of them is 7-WAR Kluber.

Marshall MN: I don’t disagree with your opinion on the ability of Royce Lewis to stick at SS, but if he can’t cut it there at what level would you expect to see the Twins move him to a different position? At AA?
Keith Law: That’s probably right.

Kacey: Did you know that a witch hunt involves guilty pleas from the President’s personal attorney, campaign manager, deputy campaign manager, foreign policy adviser and national security adviser? When will this witch hunt end???
Keith Law: The great part of the joke is that the witch hunt keeps finding more witches.

Dave: Keith, any thoughts on who the Orioles will replace Gary Rajsich with as their scouting director?
Keith Law: I have no idea.

Ciscoskid: Does the market of available 1B options make Brandon Belt a negative value asset?
Keith Law: No, but it certainly limits his return to the point that it likely makes more sense to keep him.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: What on earth is the Mets FO doing? Actively searching for Syndergaard trade partners, but deGrom is off limits. Also pushing for an old, $120M 1B and a young RP?
Keith Law: We’re just pretending that the Mets’ GM didn’t represent that old 2b (who might be a 1b) and negotiate that deal, right? There’s nothing weird about that?

matt klentak: isnt the opportunity cost for Diaz too high? I mean, you can get Familia and Miller or some duo like that for ~60M, which probably is less than two top 100 prospects + an MLB player for Diaz
Keith Law: Yes, and also, relievers don’t last. Look at the four-year deals just ending – Miller, Kimbrel, Robertson. None paid off well. The first two are clearly less than they were at the start. And I would feel very comfortable betting that Diaz’s 3.5 WAR last year ends up his career high.

Tom C: Yesterday my work was giving out flu shots (I already had mine). Some people around me were debating whether to get one because they didn’t want to get sick from the shot. Me: You know what makes you even sicker? Them: What? Me: The ACTUAL flu. Them: (Blank Stares). Some went and got the shot.
Keith Law: Excellent answer. Also, you can’t get the flu from the flu shot, because the virus in it is attenuated (weakened so it can’t cause the flu).

Adam: What does Francisco Mejia’s stock look like right now? Is it an exaggeration to say that he’s not a Top 5 prospect in the Padres system?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s an absurd statement. Of course he’s top 5 there.

Matt: Thoughts on a couple of Rays rookies from 2018, Joey Wendle and Jake Bauers? Do you believe in Wendle’s big second half, and are you buying Bauers as a bounceback guy despite his struggles last year?
Keith Law: Don’t believe in Wendle at all. Bauers is better than what he showed. Probably never a 20 homer guy, but can hit for a lot more average than that. Think he’s a solid-average regular at 1b.

Steve from PHL: Keith, what is your prediction as to what the Phillies do this offseason- signings, trades, etc? Thanks!
Keith Law: I really don’t do predictions like that. I leave that stuff and the rumormongering to others. I’ll just react as appropriate when there’s real news like a signing.

Paul: Of course if the Mets are stupid enough to trade Kelenic or Dunn then the other moves are irrelevant. However – what were your thoughts on Mets hiring Baird?
Keith Law: That’s the one move there I’ve really liked. I know Allard a little – enough that I know not to shake his hand again, because last time he broke two of my metacarpal bones – but more importantly the people I know well who’ve worked for and with him absolutely rave about him as a baseball guy and a person to work for.

Jon: With the Mets saying they want to “contend” in 2019 and the absurd rumors about trading all their top prospects for Cano and a closer, why do I get the feeling this will be a half baked offseason that drains the cupboards and in a year or two, they’re back in the same spot, only with a terrible farm system?
Keith Law: This feels a bit like the first Preller year in San Diego, when ownership seemed to want him to go all out to try to win, and they traded away a lot of value (especially Trea Turner) while acquiring bad contracts that eventually hamstrung them. The difference is that Preller was able to do a 180 and, with the help of the old international rules, turn their depleted farm system into the game’s best in short order.

JP: Settle a baseball argument: when talking about years of Team Control, is that referring to the Pre-Arbitration years only, or all the years until the player becomes a FA (PreArb+Arb)?
Keith Law: Years until free agency.

Andrew: Given the light return for Paxton, would the Giants be better off holding onto him and taking the comp pick after the season?
Keith Law: Your given is not a given.

Anthony: Hi Keith, thoughts on Andruw Jones and his HoF case?
Keith Law: So I have a vote this year, for the first time, and I have checked off nine names so far. I think I know who my tenth will be, but I’m mulling it over for a few days before I fill out the last one and mail it. I’ll do a column for ESPN+ later this month about it.

Marshall MN: You know what’s crazy, we are only 2 months away from your annual top prospect list, wow does time fly. Are you already hard at work on the top 100?
Keith Law: I am indeed. I’ve spent about 15 hours on the phone since Monday morning, maybe a little more, and have another call at 2 pm sharp.
Keith Law: I do a lot of calls first before I write anything at all.

JR: Does your daughter have a phone? If so, at what age did you get her one? If not, at what age would you feel comfortable? I thought I could hold out until 12/13, but my 10 year old son is already angling for one and many kids younger than him already have one.
Keith Law: She does. It has been really valuable for her to have it to text or call us, and more than once her bus has had a substitute/temporary driver so she’s used the maps to help the driver navigate (which, yes, that’s a whole different set of issues).

Gavin: Is Keston the real deal? He gives me Joe Panik vibes with his lack of power.
Keith Law: Totally dissimilar players, although I don’t think Hiura is a huge power guy. He makes harder contact than Panik.

Jake: Have you ever had BBQ in KC? Thoughts? Q39, Joe’s, Jack stack>>
Keith Law: KC Joes was my favorite. Slappy’s was very good too. Jack Stack is a different experience … BBQ is more of a casual thing, so in a sit-down setting it seems a little weird to me.

Mitch: Do you take much stock in Dominican Winter ball performances? Small sample size, but Heliot Ramos is doing much better than in Augusta. Not sure if that’s growth or he’s facing worse competition.
Keith Law: Ramos is Puerto Rican and is playing in the Puerto Rican Winter League, not the Dominican. I don’t put any stock in numbers from those leagues, though; the level of competition varies far too much even from game to game. I think it’s a positive experience for players, since they get more reps in real game settings.

Andy: It seems like the Braves are valuing higher dollar and shorter year span with contracts. Do you see becoming more common with all teams and move away from the 8 to 10 year deals in the future?
Keith Law: No, because the dynamics of the market will always encourage teams to give that one extra year to land the player.

Chris: Thoughts on Lewis Brinson? That Yelich trade is looking all-time bad right now for Marlins.
Keith Law: Still see upside there. Also, I wouldn’t judge a prospect deal after just one year.

Kyle: Do you think Bryan Reynolds can stick in center field?
Keith Law: I do not.

Mac: We were having a discussion about the most overrated tools and I said arm strength for a catcher. What’s yours?
Keith Law: Velocity. Without any other variables, it’s not all that telling once you’ve hit the major-league minimum (you can’t throw 84 as a RHP and be a major league starter).

AJ: Hi Keith, could you weigh in on a friendly office argument? I told a co-worker I’d rather take Eugenio Suarez (at current deal) over Machado at 8/200 and was called insane. It just seems to be a better use of $, and not even for small market teams only. Am I in fact insane?
Keith Law: Insane is awfully harsh. I just disagree with you.

Jason: Did Reggie Lawson become a prospect this season? Seems like his secondaries improved
Keith Law: He was one before, but he took a nice step forward.

Tony: How can we take strong legislative action on climate change when 1) the Republican base firmly believes scientists are lying, and 2) it’s very hard to take decisive control of the Senate from Republicans, given their demographic advantage in having that same Republican base dominate lots of small rural states?
Keith Law: It would be nice if House Democrats tried a more aggressive tactic of actually pushing bills and forcing the Senate to reject them, but also, the Dems have not done enough to make climate change’s effects a real campaign issue in states like Florida that are going to get seriously fucked by rising seas, more/stronger hurricanes, red tide, etc.

Brian: Do you think Wil Crowe could become a No. 3 starter, or is he more of a high probability 4/5 starter?
Keith Law: I would say virtually no chance he’s a 3.

Chris: Contrarian thought that I think you’d agree with from being in previous chats: Mets would be smart to flip Alonso for relief pitching now at possible peak of his value and roll w Smith at 1B. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Depends on the pitching, but yes, I do agree with that. Have to recognize Alonso has real value to AL clubs, though – I’m not saying you just give him away.

Mike: Love your baseball writing and opinions, as well as your takes on games, food, movies, music and books. I’m curious if baseball wasn’t your primary career, and you could spin any of those (or politics, science, etc) into a new full time writing job, which would you choose?
Keith Law: I’d probably be happy doing any of those. I just love to write.

KeithLawCommenter: Will you dabble in giving out baseball picks for betting? Or ever consider Action Network like Rovell?
Keith Law: No, and heck no.

Larry: What have you heard about Monte Harrison’s adjusted swing? Still hope there?
Keith Law: Saw him in AFL. Not sure what was “adjusted.”

Anthony: Just out of curiosity: what happens to a HOF vote if a qualified writer works for a team? If you took a job as scouting director tomorrow, I assume you’d forfeit your ballot, but if you reenter the public sphere after say, 3 years, do you get it back immediately or have to wait another decade?
Keith Law: No, I’d keep the ballot for ten years.

Dave: Should the Astros trade Tucker+ for Realmuto or sign Ramos or Grandal in FA?
Keith Law: I’d go the free agent route. Tucker may have struggled in his ten minutes in the majors but I think he’s a star.

Sam: What are your thoughts on Trevor Bauer. I’m 99% sure he’s an unbearable human being making a decent point about the arbitration process.
Keith Law: Bauer’s right about a lot of things – he made good arguments about foreign substances on the ball after the initial griping about Houston. He’s just wrong about climate change and immigration and a bunch of other stuff. But I wouldn’t dismiss his views on everything just because he gets a few things wrong.

SC: I am Mets fan but not a fan of Cano but trying to see the big picture– as long as they don’t give up an A-1 prospect and get Diaz and maybe another prospect they’ve improved the team. Then maybe they trade Thor to the Pads for some stud prospects, including Hedges, and fortify up the middle. Can you see that as the play here?
Keith Law: The rumors I’ve seen have them giving up their top two prospects. That’s duh-umb.

TomBruno23: Cardinals need to upgrade the bullpen. For fun, here’s a list of multi-year deals given out by the team to relievers since winning the 2011 World Series: Randy Choate, Seunghwan Oh, Jonathan Broxton, Brett Cecil, Luke Gregerson. I think that’s the full list.
Keith Law: Yeah, maybe change that up a little. They have so many pitching prospects in/near the majors you’d think they could fill out a bullpen internally.

David: Thanks for all that you do, KLaw. Baseball is a better follow because of you.
Keith Law: Thank you. I try to keep it entertaining & informative, and to not be an unbearable human being making decent points.

Mike: Does the Law household open the majority of gifts on x-mas eve, or day?
Keith Law: Christmas morning.

Anthony: Is Swanson going to hit? If not, should they move him for a corner outfield bat and give Camargo or Ozzie SS?
Keith Law: I think he’s going to hit. I’m a bit less confident than I was a year ago.

Zac: Does Daz Cameron make his debut this year and do you think the jump he made last year is sustainable?
Keith Law: Late 2019, and yes.

Adam: Love your game recommmendations. Thank you. Have you every played Coloretto? Simple card game that can be played with kids down to 8 or younger, but also interesting for adults. A nice palette cleanser at a games night.
Keith Law: I have – maybe a bit too light for me? But a cute game. I believe that came first and then the designer turned it into Zooloretto, which won the Spiel des Jahres.

Billy Eppler: Think Arte will let me buy out pujols contract?
Keith Law: He’s another guy who should be DFA’d to get back the 40-man spot. He’s no longer worth it. Whether the owner accepts this is another matter.

Evan: The general feeling among Cubs fans based on last season’s results and comments from Theo is that the cubs need to make serious changes. However, the team won 95 games despite a lost season from Kris Bryant and a underperforming offense. Do you think the level of concern is warranted or we are overreacting to an early playoff exit and a red hot Brewers team in the last month of the season?
Keith Law: I don’t think they need to make serious changes. They changed hitting coaches, which was probably needed. They retained Hamels, which was smart. I thought they should keep Chavez, whom Texas signed rather inexpensively. But they were one win away from leading the league, and if they had hit at all in the last two months of the season they would have won the division.

Danny: If the Brewers non-tender Schoop, should the Yankees go after him to play 2b and move Gleyber to SS? Schoop was worth 3.8 fWAR 2 years ago but just 0.5 fWAR last year
Keith Law: I would think Schoop would get a lot of interest as a free agent for that reason. His approach, never great, cratered last year, but there’s no reason to think he can’t regain what he was prior to 2018 – he’s not old and he’s not hurt.

Bob in Houston: Would you say Josh James is the #3 prospect in the Astros organization?
Keith Law: He’s in their top 5. I would prefer not to commit to a more specific answer now, while I’m still working on the rankings.

Ben: Surprised by Donaldson taking 1 yr deal? Next year’s 3B market is strong with Arenado & Rendon, which will hurt JD. I figured he’d try to get the best he can now.
Keith Law: Always a chance one of those guys signs an extension, and Donaldson will likely do much better next winter if he’s healthy this year.

Marshall MN: If you were the Twins would you look at transitioning borderline starting level pitchers like Gonsalves and Kohl Stewart into relievers? Any additional ceiling for those guys out of the pen?
Keith Law: Stewart yes, Gonsalves no because I think he can start.

JJ: Who would you rather play at 3rd for the next 5 years: Andujar or Devers
Keith Law: Devers.

Liam: How many innings do you think Touki pitches in MLB next year, and what kind of performance would you expect from him? Mid-rotation arm with flashes of a #1?
Keith Law: Your prediction sounds right to me. I think he makes 20 starts.

Rob: Will you be at Pax Unplugged at all this weekend? Anything you’re particularly interested in seeing?
Keith Law: I will be there all weekend. I have some appointments with publishers to see a few new titles, but I think I got glimpses of most of them at Gen Con. There are one or two I know about that might not be public yet but that sound intriguing. I’m hoping to just play more games this year too – at Gen Con I was basically just going to meetings and speaking on panels all day each day.

JJ: Are you writing a ‘Players I Was Wrong About’ article this offseason? Any obvious standouts?
Keith Law: I wrote it in September, as usual.

AGirlHasNoName: Are the Cubs going to non-tender Russell tomorrow, or am I just hopefully reading the Torreyes trade tea leaves?
Keith Law: I would non-tender him, but I don’t know their plans, and I don’t think Torreyes has anything to do with the decision.

Roberto: I have a preschool daughter who enjoys Jaipur but has trouble with other games like Splendor. Are there any other games you can think of that are as simple to pick up as Jaipur?
Keith Law: Lost Cities was the first game like that I introduced to my daughter. She liked Carcassonne when she was four, at least on the app, but at that age she played it more like a puzzle than a real game (and we didn’t keep score with her).

Jack: Would a package of Sean Murphy, Dustin Fowler, and Sheldon Neuse get Syndergaard to Oakland?
Keith Law: No.

Greg: Rumor mill has the Pirates open to trading Cervelli. Do you think Elias Diaz is an every day catcher? Do you think his 2 WAR in 82 games is legit? Thanks!
Keith Law: I think Diaz is a soft regular, probably not a 4 WAR guy but very likely a 2-2.5 WAR guy.

Dr. Bob: I don’t believe that the average Republican lawmaker doesn’t believe scientists down in their hearts. I think they just don’t want to hurt current economic growth and are just trying to push the problem down the road when they will be gone.
Keith Law: Very likely. Or they take money from entities that produce lots of CO2 or methane and figure they’ll be long dead when the earth is hotter.

Harrisburg Hal: It’s time to get rid of our Henckels knife set my wife and I received as a wedding gift 17 years ago. Would you buy separate components or get another knife set? I think you’ve recommended some Victorinox and Wustof knives in the past. Still a good place to start looking? I think I’d like to pick up a couple options to get a feel for weight/material.
Keith Law: Yes, and just do selected knives. A set will give you lots of knives you won’t use.

JG: Do the Twins have any top 10 prospects on your list? Top 20?
Keith Law: I’ll just say I think their system is loaded.

TJ: Klaw, ever had anything from Zingerman’s in Ann Arbor, MI? Great sandwiches, and my wife is going crazy baking stuff out of their cookbook I bought her. Also, and Tigers prospects that we can hope to see in Detroit this season?
Keith Law: Yes, went there ten years ago, really liked it. I think you’ll see Daz, Burrows, and Manning at some point.
Keith Law: Maybe Rogers but he’s not that good a prospect.

Buck Thompsonville: do any front offices use RBI or W’s for evaluation in any capacity anymore?
Keith Law: No. Just broadcasters.

Cthomp: I know you really like Dom Smith. However after what we’ve seen, I have a hard time seeing future impact with his bat. Can you maybe help me see what you see? Sometimes it just doesn’t pan out and I wonder if your confidence in him has dropped at all.
Keith Law: Smith is 23 and has had less than a full season’s worth of major-league at bats.

Betsy: What do you see in Willy Adames moving forward? Does he stick at SS and will his hit/power continue to improve?
Keith Law: Don’t think he’s a SS. Very much think his batting average will improve.

kgbos: Based on your board game list I picked up Ticket to Ride for family Thanksgiving. All of us were playing for the first time but I won every time (small sample size) to the point others lost interest. Do we need to find another game or do I need to sit out in the near future so they can get more accustomed to the game and strategy?
Keith Law: Might depend on how you played – the 1910 expansion isn’t expensive and introduces some better route cards that may balance the game out, again depending on why you won.

Todd: Higher ceiling, Everson Pereira or Estevan Florial?
Keith Law: Probably Florial, but his flaws are bigger.

Daniel: Hi Keith, always enjoy reading your work and as a scientist, I greatly appreciate your continued push against anything anti-science.
Keith Law: With the popular media often unwilling or ill-equipped to do so, those of us with platforms have some obligation to speak out on issues where the science is clear and the opposing view is just bullshit.

Daniel: Oops! Meant to send the following question with my previous statement: as a Reds fan, should I be cautiously optimistic about the team? I think the Bell hiring (and his staff) was really well thought out and he brings a diverse set of experiences to the table.
Keith Law: I like everything I’ve heard about Bell. Pretty good offseason for managerial hirings, I think.

Trevor: You can take Beltre over Chipper, I just don’t agree with it. Does WAR factor in playoff games?
Keith Law: No, it doesn’t, nor should it since players don’t get to play in the same number of games. Remember that the question was where the players ranked AS THIRD BASEMEN. Beltre played 761 more games at third than Jones did, and was substantially better on defense. You can disagree, but you have to come correct.

JJ: If MLB expands, those 2 cities should be: ________
Keith Law: If MLB expands, they should put part of the expansion fees into building stadiums in the new markets. Portland, OR, and Austin have long been the two best answers to that question, but I’d bet neither electorate would support public funding for a stadium.

Adam Trask: Barring any major trades and given that their young talent pans out, when do you see the Padres being a contender?
Keith Law: As soon as 2020.

DH: Can Luis Robert be a 20/20 guy? Is he still 2 years away?
Keith Law: I’m telling you, this player does not exist.

Byron Buxton: Tell me how to fix me.
Keith Law: What’s broken? Buxton wasn’t healthy last year.

kbrown: The A’s aren’t at all likely to replicate 97 wins again next year, but with the other AL West teams in rebuild or hurt (LAA) could you see the A’s repeating as a WC team with 90+ wins?
Keith Law: I would bet against this.

SC: Keith– quick follow-up– Mets said they might trade one of Kelenic, Dunn or Giminez, but not two. Seems like you would rank Giminez last in that group. Would that make a Cano trade (i.e., Cano-Diaz for Bruce, Giminez and filler) more palatable to you?
Keith Law: Yes, that wouldn’t bother me. Then it becomes a question of whether the Mets are right to pursue wins in 2019 at all.

Germolene: Did Jamie Moyer even pump it up to 84?
Keith Law: Jamie Moyer was left-handed, and probably still is.

Mike: What level of prospect(s) could the M’s get in return for Hanniger?
Keith Law: I think he’s their most valuable trade asset. Everyday player with huge production and five years (I think) of control remaining. That’s where you ask for the four-prospect, two of whom are top 100 at least, sort of return

Al: Seigler and Breaux both stick at catcher? Either project as a “guy”? Thanks.
Keith Law: Seigler is a catcher, Breaux is not.

Sam: I have a son that just turned 3. I saw that you said you played Jaipur with your daughter at 4. When did you introduce games to her and what were they? (Sorry if you’ve answered this a million times)
Keith Law: At 4. She’d see us playing games at the table or on our iPods at the time and want to try them. She liked the Carcassonne app because it was a matching game to her and I think she liked the clicking sound she’d get with a correct move. Lost Cities was pretty straightforward – to play that at all, you just have to know your numbers 1 through 10, and then the adult can guide the child through the one big decision (to play a card or hold on).

Jake Lawson: Does Clint Frazier have a future in the Bronx, or would a trade is best avenue to playing time? He still has some pretty good upside, doesn’t he?
Keith Law: He has some upside, not a star, can’t see any role for him in the Bronx.

Nat: Keith, do you have advice for someone who never really had anxiety until the past couple of years? Seems to be worse the past few months and can’t see a counselor until next year either. Any tips?
Keith Law: Try some meditation – simple breathing meditations, sometimes called ‘awareness of breath’ – and talk to your PCP about whether a low dose of medication, like an SSRI, might help.

Todd: Were you high on Brien Taylor as a prospect way back in the 90s?
Keith Law: Brien Taylor is only 18 months older than I am.

Mick: Beautifully named Italian Reds infielder Leonardo Seminati appears to be a clone of Alex Liddi. Hopefully he’s in the bigs much longer.
Keith Law: As do I. Perhaps then I’ll finally get that long-awaited scouting trip to Italy.
Keith Law: Thank you all for the questions this week. I’m planning to chat again next Thursday, and then skip the following week for the winter meetings. I’m back to the phones now to work on the prospect rankings. Have a great weekend and if you are at PAX Unplugged here in Philly, please say hi if you spot me.

Keith Law: Hate if you want to hate. It’s Klawchat.

Bruce: Does Corbin Burnes project as a top of the rotation starter or more of a mid? Should I be optimistic about the Brewers young starting pitching with Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta?
Keith Law: I think he’s more of a #2 starter, above league average, not someone who’s top 15 in MLB. I think Woodruff is a mid-rotation guy. Never a big Peralta fan – he’s too dependent on one pitch and the deception it generates.

Ken (Cleveland): I can’t decide what Corbin is. Assuming my Yankees (like I own them I know) sign him to a 4/110 or 5/130 type contract. what is he for the next 3-4 years. Is he a 4.5 WAR #2 or a 3.5 WAR #3?
Keith Law: There is no way anyone, especially not I, could pretend to offer that kind of precision in a forecast.

addoeh: Will you do your traditional Periscope chat while you spatchcock a turkey this year, even if you aren’t hosting? Maybe you can do the chat while making GBC!
Keith Law: Depends on what else I have scheduled for Tuesday. Hitting the road Wednesday, so that’s out.

Moe Mentum: I think you would make an ideal host for Jeopardy! when Alex Trebek retires (soon). Or at least a contestant. Any interest in auditioning?
Keith Law: I feel like they want someone with a very neutral personality to host that show. That’s … not me.

Bruce: Does Scott Kingery stick long term at SS? Do you expect to see more productivity from him at the plate this year?
Keith Law: Not a shortstop.

JP: what’s your evaluation of Michael King? the stat-line scouts think he’s a valuable piece, but seems more like an up-and-down reliever.
Keith Law: Reliever. You seemed to anticipate my response that you shouldn’t scout the stat line.

Moe Mentum: Hall of Fame question. As the list of enshrinees continually grows, would you endorse the establishment of a “tiering” system to rank the members based on (revisionist) merit? Or perhaps purging some less deserving members from membership? Or do you favor just leaving things alone?
Keith Law: Just leave things alone. But expand the ballot to at least 12 spots.

PhilliePhanDan: I know Kingery needs some more time, but do you have any thoughts on some other former Phillies prospects who seem to have not met expectations? ie, JP Crawford, Nick Pivetta, Roman Quinn, Dylan Cozens,
Keith Law: Crawford has a lot of untapped upside, and I think it’s up to him to decide what kind of player he wants to be. Pivetta has reached his ceiling. I was never a big Cozens fan and think he’s an extra guy at most. Quinn’s issue is staying on the field. He could sneak into a regular role if he stayed healthy.

Nate: What kind of return could the D-Backs reasonably expect for Greinke? True prospects, or just a salary dump.
Keith Law: True prospects. He’s good.

Ryan: I am sure someone is going to pay Bryce Harper $300M+, but is that really money well spent? Will he be able to live up to that contract? He has had 1 great year, 3 good years, and 3 bad years. If you pay that amount of money, are you getting the guy with a 10 WAR or the guy that has a sub 2 WAR two out of the last three years?
Keith Law: One of those sub 2 WAR years was due to playing through an injury, not lack of ability. I think he and Machado are worth that.

Bruce: How do you decide what books to read next? How come theres no website with an algorithm that tells you what you mike like based on what you have read.
Keith Law: I mostly read books in the order in which I bought or acquired them, since that’s how I put them on my shelf. As for how I choose what to buy, it’s a combination of things – authors I like, book lists/rankings I decide to work through, reader & friend recommendations, sometimes just browsing a bookstore and having a spine or cover catch my eye.

Brint: Assuming good health and ignoring service time, is Sixto good enough right now to help the MLB team? Anything he still needs to work on?
Keith Law: Yeah, kind of everything except throwing hard. Not MLB ready.

Bmosc: Time for Wilbon to step away from the mic: He argues that “winning the damn game” is more important than ERA in determining the Cy Young award. Such an antiquated way of thinking.
Keith Law: Yes. I don’t know what his knowledge is like on other sports, but when Wilbon talks baseball, he reflects a philosophy that is 20 years behind even the laggards inside the sport itself.

addoeh: Now that the election is over, do you know if Soros will continue to compensate us for protests until 2020 or will I have to find a real job in the meantime?
Keith Law: I haven’t gotten a check from him in years.

Rick Sanchez: There are 5600 members of the National Guard doing nothing in a desert right now with no AC who are going to miss Thanksgiving with their families, all so that Trump could squeeze a few more votes for the midterms from those willing to buy his BS. It’s also worth noting there hasn’t been a peep about the caravan post-midterms, after touting it as the effing apocalypse beforehand.
Keith Law: Yep. Support are troops (sic).

Ben: Reaction to Betsy DeVos’ proposal which makes it easier for sexual predators to get away with their crimes? What planet does she reside on?
Keith Law: I thought the swamp was drained!

Nate (Seattle): What’s your thoughts about Orlando Arcia’s bat? Is there still hope of him being an above average regular?
Keith Law: I’m still a buyer. I see an above average regular.

Dave: I’ve seen you say you don’t read popular fiction but you do read a lot of modern literature. For lay people, what is the line between the two? How is it determined what counts as ‘literature’ and what doesn’t?
Keith Law: Does it matter? That’s a serious question, not a flippant response. I don’t see where the distinction matters to anyone but the person reading the books.

Rob: I’m in new oreleans for a conference. Heard/been to any places you would recommend to eat?
Keith Law: Cochon/Cochon Butcher.

Ryan: what can the twins do to help rebuild?
Keith Law: Their system is very strong. I suppose they could trade from it to speed things up, but I’d recommend staying the course.

Rob: Any thoughts on the Orioles hire at GM?
Keith Law: Really strong choice, especially with Mejdal coming along to build their analytics department (which I think had nobody left?).

Brandon J: Good day sir. I was wondering if you’ve had a chance to see Jordan sheffield this fall? Looks like he’s working only in relief
Keith Law: I did. Not great. Arm strength, that was it.

Joe: Have the Braves started to fill out their International Scouting Department yet?
Keith Law: No since they can’t really spend for another year.

Mike: did you see Pearson pitch in AZL? he seemed to progress, do you see him as a starter or reliever?
Keith Law: AFL (not AZL, I know what you meant). Was awful for me, awful the next outing, gradually improved as the fall went on. Arm strength is absurd, looks like a starter. Reports I got from scouts who saw him late were good, still a top 100 guy, and third in that system for me.

Gumby: What are your thoughts on Yordan Alvarez’s ability to play the outfield, and his 2018 as a whole?
Keith Law: Zero chance that giant plays the outfield without someone getting hurt.

Dave: Would Harper be a fit at 1B for NY both positionally and as a lefty bat to level out the lineup? And is there really a “bad” contract you could give to either him or Machado? Two 26 year old future HoFers reaching UFA seems pretty unprecedented.
Keith Law: Waste of his athleticism.

Jill: What do Harvard College alumni, past and present, think of Harvard Extension School?
Keith Law: I can’t say I know enough to have an opinion.

Zach: The Reds pursuing top-line pitching in the middle of an unfinished rebuild feels like when I pull the Thanksgiving turkey two hours early because the cook time is done even though the bird’s not ready. No reason to empty the farm to gain 5 wins on a 70 win team. Agreed?
Keith Law: Agreed. Not sure they get it, though.

Joe: I understand if a voter refuses to vote for pitchers for MVP because he sees it as a position player’s award. I don’t necessarily agree with it, but I understand it. But it really doesn’t make sense when a writer gives de Grom a 5th place vote. If you see him as eligible, how can you possibly justify having him 5th on the ballot?
Keith Law: I agree with your second point, but as for the first one, it is definitively NOT a position player’s award. If you refuse to consider pitchers, that is your right … but DON’T FUCKING VOTE. Give the ballot to someone who will follow the actual guidelines.

Adam: If Thor is traded to SDP, realistically, what top prospect should they target? Gore? Baez?
Keith Law: Worth remembering that the Padres tend to show interest in everybody good – Preller is super aggressive and always exploring options. I would guess they’ll be linked to a lot of trade targets this winter. If I’m the Mets, I insist on Tatis. If I’m Preller, there is no way I give up Tatis. (shrug)

Mac: Where do you think the Sox will move Yoan Moncada? I can’t see a move to 3B or CF working out. He has ability but very little desire to be a good defensive player. They should just plop him in LF and let him concentrate on hitting the baseball.
Keith Law: I don’t know anything about his desire to be a good defensive player or lack thereof. I do know the infield is kind of tough for him given how he fields, but I thought CF would work with his speed and how fast he goes from 0 to whoa.

Guest: First, love your food reviews. My two friends and I relied on your Arizona Eats restaurant guide for our trip to the AFL and you were spot on. One highlight was Ocotillo, where I got the baked lumache pasta I’m still thinking about, five weeks later. Speaking of AFL, we were there in the first week and I was hoping to see some exciting play out of Estevan Florial but wasn’t impressed in the couple games I saw (small sample size and untrained scouting eyes acknowledged). His performance (at least in his stat line) doesn’t seem to have improved since. What do you see in him these days?
Keith Law: Same as last year – the guy doesn’t recognize pitch types well at all, chases too often, swings and misses way too often. Huge tools but no sign he’s converting that into the skills he’ll need to be even an average regular.

Rob: I asked back in June your Metal album of the year and you went with Tribulation. Still the case? FWIW I’m goo
Keith Law: I’d have to think about that one … the Riverside album was great, Toundra was great, solid but uneven records from Horrendous, Omnium Gatherum (maybe not uneven so much as lacking any standout tracks), Voivod, High on Fire.

D: Are there any non-baseball sporting events that you regularly watch?
Keith Law: Nope.

Mike: The starting 3B, SS, 2B for 2019 Chicago Cubs are___,____,_____
Keith Law: Bryant, Baez, TBD. I would still like to think they turn the page on Russell, with Baez emerging as a good shortstop who’s far more productive with the bat.

Chad: Do you think Max Fried has shown enough to be an impact starter? Or is he more of a back-end rotation and bullpen piece now?
Keith Law: I would absolutely start him now to see. He has the CB and CH to be an impact starter. The FB plays a little down from its velocity, so I think he’ll have to either have better command or, more likely, pitch more with his secondary stuff to get to that level.

Chan: Thoughts on the Marlins rebrand so far?
Keith Law: The what by the who?

Denji: Will the story on what’s going on behind the scenes in the Astros front office ever come out? I understand that sources might not want to go on record and the situation is still fluid, but there have been so many vague “yeah, there’s a lot going on” statements from writers that it gets a bit frustrating.
Keith Law: I actually don’t know what you’re referring to here. Just all the departures?

Jay: If you were running the Nats and the Lerner family said you can only sign one to a large, long term deal, would you choose Rendon or Harper?
Keith Law: Rendon, because they have Robles/Soto as Harper replacements but nobody behind Rendon.

Rob: It was fun as a Mets fan this week watching the Orioles (!) school the Wilpons on how a new FO is assembled. Ugh.
Keith Law: I had that thought too – the Orioles have so long been the punch line for ownership jokes, but they hired one of the best candidates and interviewed at least two more very good candidates (even with some folks declining interviews), while the Mets did something I can’t really justify.

Frank : What do you think the ceiling for Alex Lange is? Could he be a bottom or mid rotation guy for the cubs? Thanks.
Keith Law: Always been a reliever for me.

Josh: Lucas Giolito is only 24 but its feeling like he’s at a real crossroads. What does he need to do to be a useful ML pitcher?
Keith Law: I had him as a breakout candidate this year, only to see his mechanics fall apart right out of spring training, but I’m going to double down on it for 2019. It’s really about mechanics and staying healthy this year.

Ryan: Is Joe Mauer a Hall of Famer in your eyes?
Keith Law: He’s very borderline for me. I think he’ll have a hard time getting in, though.

Jennyfer: I read a lot, not as much as you. Do you finish everything you start? I get books based off recommendations, but if after 25-30 pages it doesn’t grip me, I’m out.
Keith Law: I bail on books too – not that often, but I do. I’ve quit books after a page or two if the prose really bothers me, or if there’s something early in the book that I find really distasteful.

Nolan: As a Padre fan who hated the Hosmer signing, how worried should I be about a deal for Thor? He’s better than Hosmer, obviously, but do you see any way the prospect cost would be worth it for a team in SDs position?
Keith Law: Probably not. I don’t see the point in such a deal right now, but maybe ownership is demanding more wins in 2019.

Dan: I know you’re not the biggest Gimenez fan, but say the Indians value him as a top 35/40 prospect, does Gimenez, Justin Dunn/Peterson, Matz and Dom Smith make some sense as a Kluber package for both teams ?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: I mean, he’s not a top 35/40 prospect for anyone. I’m not sure how to just assign the guy value he doesn’t have.

Alex: Hi Keith, seeing as though the Mets probably won’t sign Manny where do they go for impact bat? I don’t think trading Thor is the answer as I think his best days are still ahead of him. Do you think wheeler could get a good bat or maybe a buy low guy? Missing out on cain for leadoff and CF last year was a huge mistake. Also do you see new GM considering such things as I don’t know, defense being important?
Keith Law: If BVW has the same payroll restrictions Alderson has, then he’s better off trying to build from within. The system is in good shape; a deGrom trade would help that tremendously. But the free agent market would just be a waste of money for them, since they’ll be playing in the dangerous middle tier, not the top.

Raphael: Your take on the Mariners/Lorena Martin situation?
Keith Law: I know absolutely nothing beyond what’s been published and don’t feel qualified to comment.

Joe: Keith, thanks for the awesome insights. Interested in your take on a “change of scenery” swap of 2 underperforning young pitchers with some past health issues and equal number of years of control left…Dylan Bundy for Vince Velasquez. Fair deal for both sides?
Keith Law: Bundy’s health issues don’t seem “past” to me. I wouldn’t do that if I were the Phillies.

TK: Did you see Will Craig in the AFL? What do you think his floor/ceiling are?
Keith Law: I did, and saw him in August too. I think below-average or fringe regular.

Joe: Did we see enough of Julio Urias at the end of the season to better gauge his chances of being a starter again?
Keith Law: I didn’t. Besides, it’s a medical question, not so much a baseball one.

addoeh: Regarding the Braves not having an intl scouting department because they currently can’t sign anyone, would make any sense to have a few just to provide some evaluation baselines for players they could to trade for in the coming years?
Keith Law: Probably not worth the expense, although at some point they have to ramp up because there are already July 2nd, 2021 players getting locked up by teams.

Kevin: What’s the appropriate amount for a HS kid to pay for a weekend showcase ?
Keith Law: Nothing. Don’t pay for showcases.

JP: Vlad Jr and Robles the clear favorites for 2019 ROYs?
Keith Law: Vlad Jr. yes. Tatis vs Robles would be a fun debate; Robles has the job, clearly, while Tatis is the better player but may not be up until June.

Dave: Some Pirate fans seem to be overvaluing Tucker and Craig based on their AFL performance. Despite all the evidence this couple weeks doesn’t matter, do they have anything else to hang their hats on?
Keith Law: Both fringe prospects. AFL performance is really not reliable.

M: What is the market for Nelson Cruz. Seems like it’s bottoming out for aging players of this type even though he’s been successful
Keith Law: Very limited – what contenders have a full time DH spot open?

Kacey: I coach high school soccer. It’s not apples to apples with baseball of course as it’s more of a team game, but we have so many different personalities, effort levels and a ton of kids with emotional development issues. Do you find it hard to scout high school players because other than asking around (and if a scout asked me, I’d probably tell her most of my kids are great in order to support the kids) it’s hard to find out their true make up or know what it’s going to be? The difference of our kids who come back after one year of college is incredible.
Keith Law: I think that’s one of the hardest and most important parts of an area scout’s job, and something teams like the Astros, who have virtually eliminated area scouts, will miss on badly in the draft.

John: If the Braves trade Pache will they regret it? Why?
Keith Law: Yes, because he’s going to be really good?

Dee: Do you think Steven Avery did it?
Keith Law: The Atlanta lefty did something?

Adam Trask: When do you think the Padres profile as contenders? And how should that guide them this offseason?
Keith Law: That’s my objection – not this year, not with the Dodgers and Rockies still good and the Padres’ talent just starting to reach the majors, and a dead spot at first base and not much value from Myers. They’re not ready to make that big splash.

Tom: I’m not buying the Cubs not having the money to make a run at Harper/Machado. Everyone keeps saying they are at the top of budget but anyone who sees the organization knows they’re swimming in money especially with a TV deal a year away. Do you really think Theo doesn’t have the means to go after Harper or is it smokescreen?
Keith Law: Of course they have the money. Probably 28 teams have the money. It’s about willingness to spend it.

Randall: Cochon in NOLA is always a must for us. Any change to your opinion on Nico after strong AFL season? At Wrigley by 2020?
Keith Law: No change – didn’t see good contact from him, smart player, limited ceiling, moves fast but don’t see over a regular.

Zac: Where would you start Casey Mize this year and would you be surprised if he reached the majors this year?
Keith Law: Start in AA. Comes to the majors when he’s ready, which is probably this year.

John: How do you feel about Eminem as a rapper? I’d presume you have no time for him, given his history of um, problematic lyrical content – but wondered if you had a favorable opinion of his skills independent of the awful stuff he says.
Keith Law: His peak output – Slim Shady, Marshall Mathers, Eminem Show – established him as one of the best MCs of all time both for technical skill and lyrical ingenuity. I find a lot of his views to be trash, though, and never listen to him myself. From Encore on, I’ve had no use for him, because I think he’s also lost his fastball and still says the same hateful shit.

Mike: Is the AFL good for player evaluations, or too small of a sample? I’m trying to be encouraged with the hitting of Cole Tucker, but I’m not sure if its just SSS. Still not showing much power though
Keith Law: Great for scouting, bad for stat-line reading.

EG: Do you support the electoral college for presidential elections or would you prefer a true popular vote?
Keith Law: True popular vote. The Framers didn’t trust the voters to make choices of which the Framers would approve. Instead they created a system you can game.

JP: Yankees Twitter seems to think Florial is a 5-tool stud, while ignoring that the Hit Tool requires striking out in less than 35% of ABs. What’s a realistic projection for him? Outfielder Moncada?
Keith Law: Yeah, four tools, but the fifth one is a big deal. Moncada was better at the same age, though.

Ryan: Do you buy the Cubs actually are shopping Kris Bryant? I really like Buster Olney but that article screemed click bait and seemed to take what Theo said out of context.
Keith Law: They’re not shopping Bryant. I’m sure of it.

Denji: Yeah, I’m referring to the departures. Some people left before they had new jobs, and it seems like Fast made what reads as a lateral move (though I might be wrong). Yesterday in Kiley McDaniel’s chat when he was asked if there was a mass exodus or it was just a coincidence, said, “Lets just say there’s a lot going on there.”
Keith Law: Fast and Mejdal reached the end of their contracts and chose to go elsewhere. I don’t know what Kiley was referring to.

John: We have several of the board games you recommend each year and it’s become a Christmas tradition to buy two from Santa for the family. Recommend a game or two that came out this year?
Keith Law: Everdell, Charterstone, Reef, Forbidden Sky all come to mind. Probably forgetting some. I updated my top 100 all-time list this week.

Kacey: I was looking at Joe Mauer’s draft year. Not only were there only 3 All Stars from the first round (Mauer, Prior and Texiera), but the next best player drafter was probably Gavin Floyd and most players didn’t make the majors. Plenty of great players in other rounds. It seems the last 5-7 years or so first round picks make a quicker impact. Has scouting gotten that much better?
Keith Law: I think teams have gotten better in two major ways – they’ve incorporated more analytics into the process, from using traditional stats to now working with Trackman data, and they’ve started to value high school pitching differently, both drafting it later and treating those pitchers more carefully after they sign.

Steve: Should I be excited about any of the players the Pirates received in return for Moroff and Luplow?
Keith Law: Tahnaj Thomas is the sleeper. Least known of the three but an upside play. Chance for plus FB/CB combo, good body. The Bahamas are starting to churn out some serious dudes.

T: Joel Sherman seems to be super against signing Manny Machado because of hustle concerns. This whole thing is overblown, right?
Keith Law: Yeah, totally overblown for me.

Mike: Can you name names of anyone in the industry – player or office- who you walked away disappointed after meeting them? Either they’re a jerk or just overall not impressive person.
Keith Law: I could, but I’m certainly not going to name them publicly.

Damon: Donaldson a good option for the Mets? Obvious injury risk but could provide best production for someone who won’t cost Machado/harper money since the Wilpons won’t spend that much
Keith Law: Yes. If I’m Donaldson’s agent, I’m trying to sign the best one-year deal I can, hoping he gets healthy and posts a pre-injury stat line again.

Jared: For teams looking to rebuild, what allowed the Brewers do it so quickly? I know they had Gomez and Lucroy to deal, but still seems way faster than most.
Keith Law: They’ve hit on a lot of gambles, like the Chacin deal. That’s to their credit.

Brian: You’ve discussed the Jays system as obviously strong at the top but not as deep as other outlets seem to think. Given how 2018 turned out, what do you think is a realistic team outcome for 2019? And is true contention anywhere on the horizon?
Keith Law: I don’t see the pitching in that system to make them contenders any time soon; they’ll have to add it from outside, most likely.

Jared: I know Hiura didn’t hit for you while at the AFL, but do you think he is a future star with the bat?
Keith Law: Yeah, I am not really worried about it. Every scout I’ve ever asked about him has said they believe he’ll hit.

JG: BA didn’t have Nick Gordon in the top 10 Twins prospects? Has he fallen that much in your eyes?
Keith Law: He was atrocious in AAA – like he was swinging a wet newspaper. Hard to overlook that, and like I said earlier, that’s a really strong system.

Aaron: Who says no?
Keith Law: I do. Like, all the time.

Mike: I like board games but usually don’t have others to play with. Do you play with family? Friends? Groups?
Keith Law: Yep. All of the above.

Shaun: Would Manny Machado’s comments about hustling give you any pause about committing to him longterm?
Keith Law: Not a moment’s hesitation.

Steve: I’m a middle school baseball coach, and my varsity head coach loves the bunt a little too much for my taste. Is there a good way to approach this without damaging a very good working relationship? Or at lower levels of competition, does the relative lack of defensive skill and (at times) talent discrepancy make bunting a more valid strategy?
Keith Law: I know this book you could buy for him that covers bunting … but you are correct in that the sac bunt becomes a better percentage play the further down the ladder you go. Then the question is whether you are actually doing your job of teaching the kids to be better players, or simply taking advantage of children learning to play defense so you can win a few extra games.

Chris: Not sure if you heard about the SD guy who didnt vote for deGrom then hung up 10 seconds into a NY radio hit about his vote. Turns out he’s been covering HS sports in the SD area for some time. How can we purge these relics who arent even covering the sport anymore and still think pitcher Ws mean jack?
Keith Law: He hung up because the NY radio host attacked his integrity. That writer gave some of his free time to appear on that station without compensation. It was bullshit and I have no problem with him hanging up.

Greg: If he does come all the way back from Tommy John (no guarantee, of course), what is the role for Julian Merryweather? Is he a pure reliever or is there back of the rotation ability as well?
Keith Law: Sixth starter type for me.

Mike: i hear the comments that Boras made about teams not spending and then question why the BlueJays would not spend to compete. They have the Canadian market and huge TV numbers when the team is good. Did you hear Boras’ rant? i assume you agree with him
Keith Law: I do. He’s right.

Ted: When do your top prospect reports come out? I look forward to them every winter.
Keith Law: At some point in late january. I don’t know the dates just yet.

Tom: Were Robles and Soto top-tier international free agents? Product of scouting, or luck? To be in the position to lose Harper and fill in with that kind of talent is exceptional.
Keith Law: Soto was – he signed for $1.5 million. Robles signed for $225,000, so he wasn’t top-tier but not just signed to fill out rosters. They’ve done a good job on the international front.

Bruce: Do you see Josh James as a difference maker out of the bullpen? Could he be a starter?
Keith Law: Bullpen for sure. Maybe a starter. But the floor is high.

Aiden Elash: Have you much of Eric Pardinho?
Keith Law: I have not seen him live.

Ted: This might be weird, but have you ever thought about auctioning off your time for charity? I would love to sit down and pick your brain about baseball for a few hours.
Keith Law: I have done this at least twice before, attending games with readers who donated to a charity that approached me to ask if I’d do so. Obviously it would have to be a charity I would support myself, but yes, I’m up for it.
Keith Law: Sorry, had to take the banana bread out of the oven.

Chris: Did you see the Haren smackdown of Mulder on the twitter last night? Inject that into my veins.
Keith Law: Yes, I did, and yes, please to have more of that. Mark’s tweet was privilege exemplified.

Don: You are Mike Elias – you have a rebuild in front of you. Where do you start other than the first pick in the draft in June?
Keith Law: Elias’ first order of business is going to be rebuilding the organization’s staff. Player development has been bad for years. They’ve barely done anything internationally for a decade. The amateur side has fared better, but they’ve also lost a lot of staff in the turnover, even firing some guys within the last two weeks, which I think is totally bizarre (at that point, just wait for the new GM to come in). And they need a manager. Those decisions will have as much or more of a lasting impact on the future of the franchise as any trade Elias might make this winter.

Ted: Are you a believer in Corey Ray still? His hit tool was awful, but his other tools seemed to bounce back last year.
Keith Law: I didn’t see him in 2018 (I saw him a few times in 2017), but scouts who did told me he was selling out for power, so the K rate was high but he posted the high HR total. That’s not a great formula for long-term success and also not the hitter I thought he’d become.

Chris: Is Albert Almora an everyday center fielder for a contending club or just a platoon bat/defensive replacement? His 2nd half was seemingly nothing but weak contact left and right.
Keith Law: I think he’s a 50 – a solid regular in CF. Plus defense, contact without power.

Andrew: What are your thoughts on books on tape? I feel like I am cheating but at home I am chasing a 3 and 1 year old around and my 1 hour commute is a perfect time to “read”
Keith Law: I go through maybe a dozen audiobooks a year. Sometimes it’s actually better than paper, sometimes it’s worse.

Bill: Do you think young baseball fans would actually become more educated about the game if they were broadcast with no announcers?
Keith Law: I mean, it’d be nice if we didn’t have playoff game broadcasters talking about how bad the sport has become.

Ryan : Enjoying a snow day with the kids here in Siberia, err, Syracuse. My 5 year old loves playing baseball in the backyard and basement, but I have reservations about T-ball this spring. In so many ways it doesn’t even resemble baseball! Am I overthinking this one? As long as he’s having fun, right?
Keith Law: If he’s having fun, that’s all that matters.
Keith Law: Well, having fun, and isn’t at risk of getting hurt, but I don’t think T-ball poses much chance of that.

Bruce: Do you see Stephen Gonsalves as a mid rotation starter or could he be more?
Keith Law: Less.

Aiden Elash: Earlier you mentioned that Nate Pearson is 3rd in the blue jays system in your opinion. Where do you then place Danny Jansen who seems to be 3rd on most other lists? Does this mean you are lower on Jansen than others or higher on Pearson?
Keith Law: I don’t know or particularly care where others rank players. Pearson is over Jansen on my list; Pearson has huge upside Jansen lacks, and Jansen is probably below-average on defense.

Luke: What age did your daughter start playing board games with you (and what were some of the first ones you introduced her to?)
Keith Law: She started asking to play around age 4. At that point we would simply games so she could play along but we wouldn’t really keep score. Carcassonne was an early favorite because she loved the app – it’s like a matching game at that point.

Tim: Smith or Alonso for you? What should the Mets do with the other one?
Keith Law: Smith for me, but I think Alonso for them, and ultimately that’s the opinion that matters, not mine.
Keith Law: OK, I have some phone calls scheduled so I need to wrap. Thanks so much for joining me this week. There will be no chat next week for obvious reasons. Have a safe and flavorful Thanksgiving, everyone!

Keith Law: Hang a sign upon the door. Klawchat.

Chris: This Mets GM hire looks dumber and dumber already. Future of the team aside, the fact that existing agents like Boras are wary upfront of dealing with Van Wagenen on any level should’ve made this a non-starter. Bloom or Ng would’ve been great hires.
Keith Law: Boras is wary of dealing with BVW, but I don’t know that any other agents are. I don’t want to generalize from one guy’s comments here. I thought Bloom would have been a great hire, yes.

Bernie: Should the Yankees be looking at Daniel Murphy to fill their 1B/2B issue? Gleyber at SS until Didi is ready to come back then Gleyber to 2B and Murphy to 1B.
Keith Law: No, because Murphy can’t really play second base.

Briggs: KLAW, thanks for the chat as always. I’ve recently been trying to listen to more science focused books on Audible. I’m particularly interested in space/astrophysics and other things in that vein. Do you have any recommendations for books which are informative but accessible?
Keith Law: Einstein’s Cosmos, Spooky Action at a Distance, Uncertainty (David Lindley) all might fit what you’re looking for and I listened to those as audiobooks.

Jon: Keith, thoughts on Stir Candelario’s upside please? Last time I saw scores he was 50 Hit tool and 60 PWR. About right? Thank you in advance for the answer.
Keith Law: I never gave him those scores nor would I.

addoeh: Who are you, who are so wise in the ways of science?
Keith Law: I am Arthur, King of Elwood City.

Ben: I want to learn to make really good homemade pizza. Any books you would recommend on the topic?
Keith Law: The dough I make is from Peter Reinhart’s Bread Baker’s Apprentice, and it’s incredible for making very thin Neapolitan-style crusts. There’s a new pizza book out from Marc Vetri that I’m hoping to pick up to build on that. Of course I need a better oven to really step up my game, but I can turn out decent pizzas by cooking in my regular oven at 500 degrees for six minutes, using a pizza stone set on the oven floor.

Chris: Will Toffey have any value? Seems like a super-sub candidate who can hit righties.
Keith Law: Not to me. I don’t think there’s any hit value there at all.

Joe: I feel the Padres best, most well rounded outfield going forward is Myers, Margot and Cordero. What kind of value would Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe have on the trade market?
Keith Law: Both are essentially extra outfielders. That’s not much value in and of itself but 1) in a package they would both add something because they’re cheap with years of control and 2) it’s always possible another team looks at one or the other and sees a regular.

Kevin: Do you see the White Sox as making reasonable offers to Machado and/or Harper? I’d love to see it, but it’s not in their DNA. As a Sox fan, hopefully I’m wrong.
Keith Law: It would fit, given how close their young talent is, but I would be surprised.

GS(Athens): I’m curious about Royce Lewis sticking at SS. Are there some tangible, concrete skills he has shown improvement on and where would you see his ceiling as a defender there if everything goes right? Also, just moved to Athens, GA and tried Five & Ten. Acheson isn’t in the kitchen anymore of course but it’s still quite tasty!
Keith Law: No, I’m still a skeptic on him at short.

Bmosc: It truly amazes me how many people either don’t care that our President is completely devoid of integrity and about as low character as you can get, or, worse yet, celebrate those facts. I don’t think our country has been this divided in a long time, and it’s virtually impossible to have a rational political discussion anymore.
Keith Law: The White House has been circulating a fake video of yesterday’s press conference, and their pals in state media are further promulgating it. If you’re okay with that, you’re part of the problem.

TD: I’ve been down on Clint Frazier for awhile and wonder what your thoughts were on him and his trade value? To me h is upside is .250 with 20 homers.
Keith Law: Those two numbers don’t give much of a picture. I think he’s a sub-.300 OBP guy even if fully healthy, and while he has 30+ homer power I’m not sure he hits enough to get to it. A .280-.290 OBP with a low .400s slug in a left fielder is probably not a regular. He has to hit for a really high average to make this work. He has the bat speed to do so, but hasn’t shown the approach yet.

Cole: What do you think about the A’s essentially buying 2 lottery tickets in the first round of the past 2 first rounds (Beck and Murray)? The argument is that these are the high ceiling players that they ordinarily wouldn’t be able to afford in the open market? Is this a good strategy?
Keith Law: Good strategy if you’re choosing the right players. Beck was more of a fit for me than murray – and I do like Murray for what he is, but he’s 21 already and busy trying not to get his brains scrambled this fall.

Moe Mentum: Best biography you’ve ever read? How about autobiography?
Keith Law: Best memoir (is that the same as an autobio?) is probably Gabriel García Márquez’s Living to Tell the Tale. Simon Garfield’s Mauve comes to mind for best biography. The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks is biography-adjacent and is also an incredible read.

TREY: Do you see any other priorities for Cubs this offseason? Or is health, Hamels, and 1 or 2 elite relievers enough for deep postseason? I’m lukewarm on current OF and think they need some upgrades.
Keith Law: If they can add Machado or Harper, they should, even though it would create some temporary surplus (which they could use to add relief help). I think they’re a playoff team without that, but can and should try to improve beyond what they are.

Ken (Cleveland): am I crazy to think that the Yankees should avoid a big bat (especially if it costs us Miggy or Justus) and just start the season – Stanton/Hicks/Judge, Sanchez at C, Voit at IB, and Bird as my DH and see what we have
Keith Law: Yeah, I’d say that’s a bit overly optimistic, especially with Sanchez having shoulder surgery and the other two lacking any track record.

Arnold: Is Farhan Zaidi the right choice to remake the Giants or do we need to wait and see who brings in as GM before making that determination?
Keith Law: Great choice. Whoever he brings in as GM will be there to help execute Zaidi’s vision for baseball ops, which I think will be more analytics focused but not to the exclusion of traditional scouting.

xxx(yyy): any date night recipe suggestions to go with pan roasted pork chop?
Keith Law: Pork of any kind goes really well with polenta.

John Olerud: As an Ms fan, may I get your valued opinion on the Zunino trade? Does it seem reasonable? Completely misguided? Or just meh? For Ms fans, this trade seems important in helping to gauge Dipoto’s potential abilities in spearheading what is now a confirmed rebuild. Yes, he’s so far been dubbed “Trader Jerry”, mostly for sacrificing minor-league talent in a last-ditch effort to win. But is this just because of the mandate he had in the first part of his tenure? And do you think he and his team can successfully change course?
Keith Law: Just meh. Backup catcher for fourth outfielder. Some lesser prospects changing hands – Fraley’s probably a fourth outfielder himself, Plassmeyer maybe a fifth starter, threw a tick harder in short stints this summer than as a starter in college.

Nick: Moving forward, would you rather have Albies or Urias?
Keith Law: Albies.

Ben: Re: Boras’ comments about the draft rewarding systematic losing. If a draft is necessary (I don’t see how the owners would ever get rid of it). Why not have the number one pick go to the team with the best record that missed the playoffs, then go down by record from there, with the 10 playoff teams being the last 10 picks. Seems like this would discourage tanking, increase competitive balance, and reward teams that make an effort, but just miss out on the playoffs. Then, instead of tanking for the first pick, teams will need to give full effort to win the first pick. MLB could even market it as another “race” to watch at the end of the season. Seems like it would open up the free agent market too, since more teams have something to play for.
Keith Law: Changing the structure of the draft could improve it but won’t solve the fundamental problem that it screws the players, especially the best players in any draft class.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: I hope you don’t mind answering this, but I know you’re open about your anxiety stuff. I got help about three years ago and I’ve been mostly stable except for a few minor blips here and there. But when I’m stable, I feel like I’m not the same person and I’m living in an altered world that I’m not sure I like. Did you experience something similar?
Keith Law: You may need more time to be in your stable periods to get used to the feeling. I do know what you mean, and yes, the world feels very different when I’m in a good place. It can be weird to have that constant hum of anxiety go silent.

Bruce: What are your thoughts on Jazz Chisholm? Is he a top 100 GUY?
Keith Law: I think he’s a potential superstar.

Allan: Would it make sense to ever make a list of “players who lost their rookie eligibility”, or would the sample be so small that you’d just tell people to refer to your pre-season rankings?
Keith Law: You have it exactly right. I wouldn’t change any of those unless we saw something physically or mechanically new with the players.

Larry: Austin Riley and Soroka get it done for Realmuto?
Keith Law: Highly doubt that.

Jordan: Hey Keith, which team do you feel should go after Realmuto the hardest this winter?
Keith Law: I don’t think any contender has a greater need for him than the Nats.

THE Average Sports Fan: Any hope for Anthony Alford?
Keith Law: Sure, there’s hope. It’s just getting late.

Jason: If you are ignorant to all candidates, is it better to vote straight ticket or not vote? I unfortunately did not make the time to research all of the candidates and elected not to vote because I was uneducated. Did I make the right decision? I know I’m wrong for not paying attention to the candidates.
Keith Law: Does anyone research every single downballot candidate? I had some very local elections here where the Democrat ran unopposed or had only a third-party opponent. Should I have abstained, even though I would say I knew nothing about the candidates beyond that they never did anything so awful that I heard about them? I’d say no. Make sure you’re not voting for a Nazi, or an embezzler, or something like that.

Hank: Can you give us some background on Mike Fast? Seems like a lot of excitement about Atlanta hiring him, but I don’t know much about him.
Keith Law: One of the first people to bring out research on pitch framing – to measure it and show its effects were real and sustainable. Great hire.

Bearry: The Rays have their catcher, but still have some big holes to fill and prospects to deal. Think they can pull in Donaldson and/or trade for a TOR guy like Carrasco/Kluber/Gray?
Keith Law: I’m confused – you said the Rays, and then you’re talking about expensive players.

Danielectomy: Which of the Jays best prospects do you see winding up impact players?
Keith Law: Vlad, Bo, and if healthy Pearson has a shot.

Matt: As an Astros fan, should I be worried about the departures of Mejdal and Fast? Any word on why they left? Career opportunities? Luhnow? The Osuna trade?
Keith Law: I think the team is worse off for their departures, yes.

Deke: When I used to bartend, there was a regular there who was a real jerk. Saw him on a political ad for a Trump-supporting House candidate (Andy Barr) and posted about it on FB. A friend who still bartends there said that was dirty play, calling him out publicly. Fair or foul?
Keith Law: If you don’t work there any more, I’m not sure what you did wrong. Had you worked there, yeah, that could be a problem for your employer.

Jay: The Cardinals seem to be in a period of stagnation. Do you subscribe to the notion a front office can go stale over a long period of time or is that for lack of a better term, “BS”?
Keith Law: I think that’s BS. The team is pretty good. Their biggest problem seems to be that they’re very good all over the diamond and thus don’t have one spot where a huge upgrade is simple and accessible to them.

Jon: Can Baez repeat his 2018 performance or will it be downhill?
Keith Law: I think he can do this again. The question I have is whether he can ever be more – you know, drawing a walk more than once a month.

Joe: Braves are probably going to have to move one of Riley, Pache, and Waters. Will you rank in order of which one is most to least likely to be traded?
Keith Law: I don’t agree with the premise that they “have to move” any of them.

section 34: Do you find baseball more boring than in the past? I do. I know the changes in offensive approach are rational for each individual hitter. But I DVR games: I started doing it so I could skip commercials, but now I hit the 30-second-fast-forward button a lot in between pitches. Are you also finding baseball to have become too slow?
Keith Law: I think there are too many long commercial breaks. We don’t need two-plus minutes of commercials for every pitching change. The game itself is mostly fine although I’d prefer more balls put in play and fewer strikeouts. But the long mid-inning commercial breaks are more damaging to the product.

RSO: Does Andujar, Clint Frazier and Chance Adams get it done for Kluber for the Yanks?
Keith Law: Andujar and two decidedly second- or third-tier prospects? Come on.

Steve: A suggestion for those reading these chats on a web browser (at least Firefox): right-click in the chat window, select “this frame” and then “open frame in new tab” or “open frame in new window”. Instead of the chat being confined to a box in the middle of the page, the chat itself now takes the full tab, is easier to read and allows more of the chat to be displayed on the screen.
Keith Law: Thanks!

B Mand: I have seen a lot of conflicting reports on Dalbec and what the future holds for him. Am I wrong for thinking his skill set is similar to Gallo, maybe with a slightly better glove?
Keith Law: He’s not Gallo. Gallo has more power, and better pitch recognition. Dalbec can defend and really throw, but his ability to pick up spin is not where it needs to be to project him as a regular.

Jeff: Why was the Japanese BCG vaccine recalled in Seoul? I thought vaccines were 100 percent safe?
Keith Law: Because of a manufacturing issue, not anything with the vaccine itself. And the vaccines were still safe – they contained more arsenic than Korean regulations recommended, but still less than 3% of the daily maximum intake considered safe. As for “100 percent safe,” nothing is 100% safe. Advil isn’t. Coffee isn’t. Most vitamins aren’t. Vaccines are safe, in that the risk of adverse effects is extremely small, and most of those adverse effects are themselves trivial.
Keith Law: Good troll job, though, dumbass. Go back to remedial biology.

gavin: Your thoughts for both Tyler O’Neill and Alex Verdugo next season? I’m sure situation plays into this, but do you still believe in both?
Keith Law: Never been a big O’Neill fan; I see too much dead-pull in the swing and approach and a below-average fielder. Verdugo I like but he has no place to play.

mike : My issue with a pizza stone is that the oven has to be on so long, that I feel like I’m wasting power/money……you ever feel that?
Keith Law: No, although most books will recommend heating up the oven for an hour or more, I often find the stone hits temperature sooner than that (an infrared thermometer helps you know).

Austin: There’s a restaurant I follow on Twitter that is misogynistic and awful to people there. Like one giant troll. But there food is BOMB and every time I’ve been there I’ve never seen them treat customers unkind. Should I boycott this place based on their social media presence even though I’ve never seen them actually portrayed like that in real life?
Keith Law: So maybe it’s just that one person running the account? I’d ask at the restaurant.

Bill: Dylan Cease – starter or releiver?
Keith Law: Starter. If he’s healthy at all, he’s very clearly a starter.

Mike: Keller – if I remember you are concerned about a 3rd pitch and he may be destined for bullpen. But what about Paddack and Bryse Wilson? 2 or 3 starter upside?
Keith Law: All three project as starters, but yes, Keller needs a better changeup. Paddack can definitely start without a better breaking ball but it limits his ceiling.

Jax: Will Benson still a quality prospect in your book? I understand his floor is quite low but he seems to have tantalizing upside.
Keith Law: I don’t know what “quality prospect” might mean to you. I am not optimistic about his chances right now.

Jordan: Have the Twins given up on Buxton? If so, I’d love to see some team trade for him and give him 500 PA next season.
Keith Law: I don’t think so. I thought Baldelli might be the ideal manager for him since their on-field skill sets are similar.

Dan: If you’re the Giants, does a 7-10 year contract for Bryce Harper make any sense even with their apparent rebuild in place? Can he be part of the next Even-Year magic?
Keith Law: No, it makes little to no sense to me.

Colin: Keith – can you ease my long-term concerns about Soroka? He looked damn good this season before the injury.
Keith Law: Stuff looked great. Tough arm action that puts stress on the shoulder. Still like him but the risk of further injury is high.

Pat: Kang has claimed he stopped drinking entirely. Doesnt that change your outlook on him?
Keith Law: No.

Big Sister: Does Ronaldo Hernandez stay at catcher? Do you like him or William Contreras better?
Keith Law: I think Hernandez has the better bat and Contreras the better defensive profile. I have Hernandez staying at catcher with some work.

Boa T.: Did Klaw really reference The System in his open? Would the Angels be better served moving Cozart to second and signing Moustakas or someone similar to play 3rd?
Keith Law: I did indeed. Moustakas isn’t any upgrade for them. Better to sign or trade for a second baseman.

Stephen: When do you think Luis Robert makes his appearance in Chicago? We thinking… I don’t know, mid April 2020?
Keith Law: Maybe? Guy has to show he can stay healthy for 20 minutes first.

Dan: Thoughts on the Farhan Zaidi signing? Surprised at all that the Giants went with such a forward-thinking President/GM?
Keith Law: I’m not surprised.

Bob Pollard: The whole “Cubs have no money” thing…do you think this is real or a Theo smokescreen for him to fly under the radar? What do you think they end up doing/what should they do?
Keith Law: The Cubs have plenty of money. The Ricketts may choose not to spend it, but they have it.

Shawn: Do you continue to use any non-drug therapies or techniques for your anxiety? What did you use in the past?
Keith Law: Meditation, exercise, lot of ‘self-care’ techniques including positive sensory stimuli – literally, finding things that calm you or provoke positive reactions in your brain for any or all of your five senses.

Todd: Could Michael Bloomberg beat Trump in 2020? Thoughts on him as a candidate?
Keith Law: I burn incense in my kitchen sometimes for that reason, mostly because baking cookies all day long is not the greatest idea for my health.
Keith Law: Oh god please no. Bloomberg is the last thing we need.

Mat Ji: Hi Keith, What do you make of Bill James’ comments and the backlash he has received?
Keith Law: I thought his comments were wrong and excessively derisive towards players (and labor in general). He’s affiliated with an MLB team, too, which makes it worse.

Pat: Mallex hit .296/.367/.406, 3.4 fWAR. Is he really just a 4th OF?
Keith Law: Yes. Dude had never had a 1-WAR season before then.

Chad: I’ve head Kyle Tucker often get compared to Christian Yelich. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I don’t see how much they have in common other than both being really good prospects. I thought Yelich was farther away from his power than Tucker is now.

Chad: Which Braves arm – Kyle Wright, Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, Touki Touissant, – do you like best long-term?
Keith Law: Touki has the highest upside.

Chris: Do you think the Red Sox moved Darwinson Hernandez to the bullpen to limit his innings, or do they not think he can start in the majors?
Keith Law: Pretty sure it was to limit his innings. I would absolutely keep him as a starter for now.

Bmosc: Klaw, I saw you mention elsewhere (perhaps another chat) that Nashville was one of your favorite Minor League culinary stops. Any favorite restaurants?
Keith Law: In no particular order: Husk, Rolf & Daughters, City House, Catbird Seat, Cochon Butcher, Kuchnia & Keller, Two Ten Jack, Mas Tacos.

Michael Conforto: Why do people vote overwhelmingly in support of progressive ballot measures but not for progressive candidates? Is it just a messaging issue? Is being labeled a Democrat damaging beyond repair to some?
Keith Law: Could be. Not sure anyone knows the answer to that, since it would depend on truthful answers to polls or surveys.

Beau: Is Buddy’s AFL production a SSS or has he made adjustments since struggling in AA?
Keith Law: Buddy Reed? SSS in a hitter’s environment. Swing is still the same (not good). Which reminds me, I was accused by a Padres blog of “refusing to admit” he was better, which is always hilarious to me.

Dan: Do you believe Derek Rodriguez is a legit mid-rotation starter or more back-end? Either way I’m happy to have found a useful pitcher for essentially nothing.
Keith Law: Back-end. Very lucky on the ERA front.

Dale: Why were the A’s experimenting with Matt Olson in RF? And was that part of reason you weren’t sold on his 1B defense.
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s that good a defender at first, period. Gold Gloves are stupid.

Steve: ETA on when the O’s hire a new GM?
Keith Law: Sometime before the All-Star Break.

John: Re pizza, why do you need a better oven? What’s the ideal temp?
Keith Law: For Neapolitan-style pizza, probably 800+.

Pat: Apparently Carter Kieboom showed good range and arm at SS in the AFL. Any chance he can stay on the position?
Keith Law: I saw him there, and no, he did not. Second base for me.

mike : I find the time between pitches to be the issue for me, more than the commercial breaks. The NFL can make it look like there is action, thru replay. MLB replay is shorter, so it is harder to fake action.
Keith Law: There’s a fatigue recovery benefit to pitchers taking more seconds between pitches, which is why I oppose a pitch clock and prefer cutting those ad breaks.

Hank: Ian Anderson is the pitcher Alex Anthopoulos should be least willing to trade. True or false?
Keith Law: Neither true nor false. You can make that case for Anderson, or for Touki, or even for Wilson.

Tom: Was Patrick Mahomes ever considered a prospect?
Keith Law: Sort of. I know he did some baseball stuff but it was so clear he was headed for football that I don’t think he was seriously scouted his senior year. It sounds like he made the right choice.

Jiimbo: What are your thoughts on Yusei Kikuchi? At best #2 Starter?
Keith Law: I ranked him in the free agent rankings.

section 34: Since you write so often on vaccines — I’m with you, I’m very pro-vaccine — I wonder if you have a theory on why very liberal people who claim to care about community don’t respect the concept of herd immunity.
Keith Law: Chemophobia/appeal to nature fallacy plus Dunning-Kruger syndrome (the more education you have, the more liberal you are likely to be, but then you might overestimate your knowledge in other subject areas).

Amir: Would Matt Harvey be a good fit on the Athletics on like a 1 year pillow deal? Feel like it could be a good situation for both the player and team.
Keith Law: Yep, love that idea, actually. Good call.

Santos: To Jeff the Vaccine Troll: Took me 2 seconds to google, “It didn’t immediately announce the decision as it found that the level of arsenic concentration is minimal without the potential to cause harm.

The ministry’s research showed that arsenic was from the heated glass bottle that contained the BCG vaccine.”
Keith Law: Jeff the vaccine troll is indeed just a troll. I usually ignore him, but that bullshit was worth swatting down.

Seth: Did you see Melvin Adon in the AFL? Is he more than a guy who just throws really hard?
Keith Law: I didn’t see him, talked to two guys who did (plus Longenhagen), sounds like a guy who throws really hard and we’re not sure what else.

Josh: what does Evan White look like at the MLB level? I’m worried he’s a AAA/MLB swing man
Keith Law: The 1b? Everyday player.

Dansbae: Have you given up Dansby Swanson? Looks like he isn’t a regular.
Keith Law: I have not. Still think he’ll be a regular.

HugoZ: Do you think that Casey Mize feels “screwed” after receiving 7.5 million?
Keith Law: If he would have received $10 million as a free agent – which is likely – then yes, he should feel screwed. I don’t know him at all so I am not sure of his actual feelings. I for one would be very frustrated if I were only allowed to negotiate with ESPN when my contract is up even though there might be other companies willing to bid on my services.

JR: Thoughts on how the mid-term elections turned out? I’m happy to see Dems take back the house, but the Rs gain ground in the Senate. Anything we can read into this on the chances of 45 getting voted out in 2020??
Keith Law: The Senate seats up for election this year were not representative of the body (or country) as a whole – there were few chances for the Democrats to flip them and retake the chamber. That said, I don’t think projections two years out are ever very useful in politics. Stuff changes fast.

Mitten: I’d prefer the Cubs just DFA/non-tender Russell. Just seems like the right thing to do/message to send. Giving lip service to wanting to ‘help him’, which is great. But to me, he doesn’t need to be part of the organization for that to happen.
Keith Law: I would too, but they traded for Chapman, so I doubt they just walk away from whatever value might remain in Russell.

Mike: Are you going to post your Thanksgiving menu this year? I have to contribute a dish myself and was hoping to “borrow” one of your dishes.
Keith Law: I only posted that on Thanksgiving day in the past; not sure if I do that this year since I’m not cooking for a crowd.

Ryan: If you were running the Cards would you use Reyes as a 2-3 inning reliever with multiple days off in between appearances
Keith Law: Yes, assuming he can handle that. Starting him seems well off in the future now.

Barry: How about the Angels as a landing spot for Harper? It would show Trout they are committed long term to winning and Harper could slide into the occasional DH role to better keep him fresh over the course of the contract.
Keith Law: Sure, if they’re willing to jettison Pujols.

Jeffrey: Beto runs in 2020 at this point.
Keith Law: He’ll probably run. Booker might run. Warren, Harris, and probably some others we don’t really know very well yet. And then we’ll find out some stuff about each of them that isn’t very flattering and people will freak out over details that don’t matter and gloss over negative things that should matter and I’m already losing my patience with this.

Jon: FYI: Bill James is correct. If you took every Mike Trout or Mookie off the field right now they will be replaced with other players and the game goes on; period.
Keith Law: FYI: No, he’s not, and it wouldn’t. Just look back at the replacement NFL players from ’87.

Wes: If Brendan McKay switches to pitching only, does he reach the majors sometime in 2019? Still have number 2 ceiling?
Keith Law: Yes, and yes.

JR: Thoughts on Cashman being so direct in that he needs to trade Gray? Obviously, it’s the best move for both sides, but does being so public about it decrease his value?
Keith Law: I appreciate his candor. We all know it’s true. Denying it just forces him to lie to everyone.

Bryan (Montclair, NJ): Shocker – Mets are not going after Harper or Machado. With that said, can you envision a more moderately priced road that BVM can take to get this team to contention in 2019?
Keith Law: Yes, but it would require 1) steps forward from a few young players and 2) going all-in on short-term fixes that cost the team in the long term.

Aaron: There is clearly a discrepancy in the way you and some other outlets value the jays farm system. I tend to side with your ranking of the system mainly because outside Vlad, bo and Pearson there is just not a lot of upside. There are a lot of guys who seem to project as average to below average regulars. Is that essentially your take on their prospect pool?
Keith Law: That is almost precisely how I see their system. Guys like Biggio, Smith, Reid-Foley, Alford, Tellez – the team may rate them highly but I’m offering you a more balanced view that reflects what I’ve seen and what other teams think.

Sam: So an administration that derides “Fake News” just used a doctored video from InfoWars as justification to revoke a reporters WH access. Cool.
Keith Law: Yep. America in 2018.

xxx(yyy): what is your favorite 80 grade cooking item/tool in your kitchen these days? What about an 80 grade technique you use?
Keith Law: My Japanese santoku. Technique? Not sure. I cook lots of ways all the time.

Jennyfer: Any hope that the Dems get better at messaging? Trump is the fucking worst and so is most of the GOP, but they somehow get the “liberal” media to talk about e-mails and a caravan instead of all of the Trump corruption and access to health care.
Keith Law: The Democrats as a party have been poorly run for a decade or more. Losing in 2004 was kind of the first sign and yet the leadership continues to offer more of the same.

Bryan (Montclair, NJ): Keith, I really appreciate you sharing so much about your issues with anxiety. I struggle lately with focusing on specific tasks for long periods of time. I contribute a lot of it to taking on more responsibility (professionally and family wise). Is there anything that you’ve done to increase your ability to focus?
Keith Law: If you read about the flow state, you may find some of those techniques helpful. I recently reviewed a book called Deep Work that also offers good, functional tips.

Dazed and Confused: Bloomberg may not be good, but how can you get worse than Donald?
Keith Law: I hate that idea. We shouldn’t just settle for “not Trump.” There are real, major problems facing our country and our planet – climate change, overpopulation, sectarian violence, terrorism, pandemic risks. health care, etc. It’d be nice to find a leader with real ideas and the capability to execute them.

Andy: Travis Lee and Matt White were free agents due to a loophole in 1996. They BOTH received over $10 million.
Keith Law: Yep. And I think MLB revenues have gone up a tad since then.

Jared: Is Brandon Woodruff a starter for you? If so, does he project as middle of rotation or back end?
Keith Law: Mid-rotation starter.

Chris: Has Julio Urias already exceeded your expectations in his comeback, even if long term his outlook is greatly reduced?
Keith Law: No. I had no expectations for him on the field.

Jared: Would a Schoop for Sonny Gray swap make sense? Both have been good in past, but struggled last year. Change of scenery for both?
Keith Law: I like that idea.

section 34: Klaw, we were agreeing so nicely until you disparaged Matt Olson’s defense. His B-R range factor was easily the best in the AL at 1B, well ahead of the second-best semi-regular 1B (Ronald Guzman). B-R had him worth 0.8 dWAR. So far as I can tell he was the ONLY AL 1B with positive dWAR in 2018. And, not that it counts, but he looks smooth doing it. Will you re-evaluate your evaluation?
Keith Law: I don’t find defensive metrics useful for evaluating 1b defense and never have. So, no, I won’t.

Felix: Joe Biden is currently the frontrunner to be the Dem nominee in 2020. A safe choice, but just another tired old white guy who will likely be nominated because the rest of the current interested Dems is a minefield.
Keith Law: And how often is the front-runner 24 months out the actual candidate? I’d guess less than half the time. Can I bet somewhere on it not being Biden?

Drew: I’ve battled anxiety my entire life but I don’t think I ever really realized it until I turned 40. Makes me feel a little dumb when you step back and understand how this giant elephant in your brain could sit there an got unnoticed for most of my life. What was your first step in getting treatment? As in, do you just google “anxiety doctor” or did you find a specific type of clinic? I got some Xanax but kind of hate it as a treatment. I get anxious at work more than anywhere else, I can’t be bogged down with drugs. Thanks.
Keith Law: Started with my primary care doctor and then got in to see a therapist shortly afterwards.

Chris: I know you have an interest in languages. Have you ever used Duolingo? Any other tool? Thoughts?
Keith Law: I have used it. It’s fun, but I don’t think it really teaches the language, just some vocabulary.

Jerald: Overpopulation has always been a problem that I think is glossed over too much. How can we deal with it. Is it as simple as providing wide spread birth control in the 3rd world in an attempt to slow things down in those areas until infrastructure can be developed to support their current populations?
Keith Law: Increasing access to birth control would help – but so does empowering women around the world. Women who have the opportunity to work and earn income also end up with greater reproductive choice, and thus have fewer kids. Regardless, however, we have to find a way to feed 8-9 billion people, and provide them with clean water, and stop warming the planet. It’s not small, but with one party denying climate change even exists, we’re not close to working on a solution.

Mick: Any Japanese stars coming to MLB in the near future that approach Ohtani’s talent?
Keith Law: Not that I’m aware of. MLB regulars, yes, potential stars I don’t think so.

Josh: Seems like so many teams are tanking/rebuilding next year in the AL. Could we have 4 teams 100+ wins in the AL alone?
Keith Law: I hope not. Some other team – the White Sox are really in prime position – has to see the opportunity to make a big move and pounce. They could be a 90-win team this year with realistic improvement from young players already there and the right acquisitions from outside.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you as always for all of your questions. Next week’s chat will likely be Friday rather than Thursday due to travel but I will make an announcement if it’s sooner. Enjoy your weekends and thanks to everyone who voted for science and reason this past Tuesday.

Keith Law: Every time just like the last. Klawchat.

Dean: Mr. President, everyone in this room is now dumber from having listened to you. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
Keith Law: Just going to suggest that one way to stop a President who thinks he can change the Constitution on a whim is to vote for the opposition party on Tuesday.

DaveAlden53: How is Jahmai Jones doing at second base? Is his bat a better fit for that position?
Keith Law: He was fine there when I saw him in the AFL but never sufficiently challenged. The bat would obviously play better there than in LF/RF, since he wasn’t going to play center in that organization.

DaveAlden53: The Brewers added Tyrone Taylor to their 40-man roster. Can he play a role with the big club in 2019?
Keith Law: Extra outfielder? He really hasn’t performed – a .321 OBP in Colorado Springs as a 24-year-old is not going to cut it.

Tom: Let’s say it was physically and financially possible to change all ballparks so that they played identically to each other. Would you be in favor of doing this?
Keith Law: No, I love the fact that we have unique playing fields & dimensions – it sets us apart from other sports.

JT: You’ve long been an advocate of going to an experienced manager while still being a fresh face with new ideas: are you happy with the Blue Jays’ selection of Montoya?
Keith Law: Absolutely – heard nothing but great things from his colleagues in Tampa Bay and he has a great resume.

Hal: What candy are you handing out for Halloween?
Keith Law: Nothing special – we just get some generic mixed stuff from Target, definitely Reese’s cups in there, because I will eat the leftovers. I didn’t dress up this year for the first time in a while because my daughter is just generally less into the holiday this year.

Andy: Serious question, if the Mets decide to trade DeGrom or Syndergaard to jumpstart a rebuild, would the new GM sign off on it?
Hal: Kimbrel looked vulnerable at times during the playoffs and during the season his Ks were down and BB way up. If you were Boston would you let him walk? What would you offer him?
Keith Law: I would let Kimbrel walk, yes.
Keith Law: Mets GM: who knows – anything involving those guys feels like a conflict of interest. If you’re another GM and BVW calls to offer to trade you one of those guys, don’t you wonder if he has information on them that you don’t have that might discourage you from accepting any offer?

Wally: Initial thoughts on the Trevor Rosenthal signing ?
Keith Law: I can’t offer thoughts on a deal without any contract terms.

Andy: What is pache’s future value in your eyes?
Keith Law: He’s at least 10+ runs a year in centerfielder, maybe 15-20, with plus raw power and, at the moment, a low OBP. That still makes him an above-average regular, but the ceiling is limited by the lack of patience at the plate, and he did seem occasionally overmatched at the plate in the AFL.

Ozzie’s helmet: Is there a way to prevent that Ozzie Albies becomes Rougned Odor?
Keith Law: Sure, but he has to be a part of that process too.

Jordan: Do you think the Mets have the pieces to go after JT Realmuto this winter? And if they do, what would they have to offer for the Marlins to seriously consider accepting the deal?
Keith Law: I think other teams would be able to top the Mets’ best offer – but I also think it would be a terrible idea for the Mets to trade prospects for Realmuto.

Joules: How reluctant do you think the Marlins would be to move JTR within the division?
Keith Law: The correct answer would be “zero.” That mentality is stupid, and outdated, and hurts no one but your own team.

Brian: There has been a lot of glowing post-season wrap up stuff on Spencer Howard. What have you heard about him?
Keith Law: I’ve seen him. Lot of average stuff. Was way too old/experienced for low-A this year.

HOTLANTA: Do you think an offer of Pache, Gohara, and Allard would be enough to land Realmuto?
Keith Law: Probably, if Anthopoulos has lost his damn mind.

Jordan: Obviously we need to see results before seriously judging, but what are your thoughts on the Mets hiring Van Wagenen as their new GM?
Keith Law: I said this yesterday on the BBTN podcast: I know BVW a little, but not enough to know what kind of GM he will be, but I will say that the Mets’ process here has been a farce. The owner’s son hired his buddy, and it’s a guy with zero experience anywhere in a front office – never scouted, never worked in player development, never worked in analytics, never worked as an AGM under in that area working on contracts. I literally have more relevant experience than BVW does, and I do not believe I am qualified to jump in and be a GM. Yet they chose him over one of the best and most qualified GM candidates in the game, Chaim Bloom; and they covered their bases by interviewing two persons of color, one a woman, and then booting them both after the first round. Sometimes a flawed process produces a good result, but that doesn’t absolve the owners here for the flaws.

Fish: Is the Orioles’ hiring of a President/GM going to be a circus again, or is there any indication that there’s been a positive change there?
Keith Law: Nobody knows what’s going on. I generally don’t chase those rumors anyway, but I’m surprised I’ve heard basically nothing on Baltimore.

Zihuatanejo: From a talent/development standpoint, are either of Smith or Ruiz ready to suit up for the Dodgers in 2018?
Keith Law: Smith probably is. Ruiz is not.

Adam Trask: Your brand is built in part on letting people into to your personal life and political views. Why would you react negatively when a follower asks what you’re doing in the offseason or about your eating habits?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t. I think you totally missed the joke.

David: Since the Padres forced him out of position by signing Hosmer, trading Myers seems logical—but how much of his contract would they have to eat to do so (and get something useful back in return)?
Keith Law: He’s not a $20 million/year player, which is what he’s getting paid in 2020-22; he might be worth 60% of that, even if he’s returned to first base (he’s a better fielder there, but the positional value is also lower). So that’s my very rough, outside guess – they’d probably have to offer to pay 1/3 to 2/5 of it.

TP: Favorite MLB and MiLB cities for food?
Keith Law: Woof, that’s a long list for MLB. For the minors, though, Nashville is the obvious standout. Louisville is also pretty close; Raleigh-Durham, if we count that as one destination, is up there. I haven’t spent enough time in Austin but its reputation would put it in the same class.

Nick: Do you really see the Yankees staying out of the Harper/Machado sweepstakes?
Keith Law: No.

Mike: Have you seen Nate Pearson since he returned? Any thoughts on him?
Keith Law: Yes, please see my second AFL post for a full report.

Jeff D.: Should the Dodgers be VERY worried about the investigation into their Cuban signees and the laws that may have been broken? MLB penalties, actual DOJ penalties or arrests?
Keith Law: Better question for a lawyer. I’m not qualified to answer and haven’t even asked anyone in the game about the story (why would they tell me anything?).

CJC: Why wouldn’t the Yankees just play Gleyber at short next year while Didi rehabs? Who would you have play 2nd?
Keith Law: That is exactly what I would do. Gleyber can play short. You can find a second baseman to fill in for a bit. Maybe it’s Tyler Wade.

Stephen: What would a fair extension look like for the Dodgers and Kershaw, given what he means to the franchise, their place on the marginal win curve, and his declining velocity? Add two years and 70mm to current deal? Or is that just too high even for them?
Keith Law: Oh god no – that’s WAY too much. He’s not a $30 million a year guy any more.

Mike: It seems like teams are getting better and better at scouting amateur players. Is it still necessary to have as many levels in the minor leagues as we currently do?
Keith Law: I don’t see the connection there – we need the lower levels for the raw high school kids and Latin American free agents who sign as teenagers.

Ian: Any thoughts on what the Rockies should do in 2019? Go all in, trade Arenado, or muddle through with strange choices and over the hill vets (clearly the likely outcome)
Keith Law: They can compete again for sure, but would need to make some hard internal decisions (like accepting that playing Desmond hurts the club, or that paying for relievers isn’t working). I think they’re a potential playoff team as currently constructed, helped by Arizona likely taking a step back and the Giants almost certainly starting to rebuild.

Pat: Carter Kieboom ready to be opening day roster for Nats?
Keith Law: No.

Jesse B: If you had to guess, educated of course, which of these three will have the best pro career, Lucius Fox, Jazz Chisholm, and Andres Gimenez?
Keith Law: Ranked best to worst: Chisholm, Fox, Gimenez.

Bort: Thoughts on Mejia for next season? Does he get 400 at bats?
Keith Law: He should play a full season – there is no good reason why he wouldn’t.

Mac: Do you think Spencer Adams has a legit shot to earn a spot in the White Sox rotation out of spring training?
Keith Law: No, nor should he. He has marginal stuff and struck out only 11% of batters he faced in AAA.

Nate: Does Hudson have a shot at making the Cardinals rotation, or is he destined to be a career reliever?
Keith Law: I think reliever is most likely the outcome for him, but they could certainly try him again as a starter.

Kyle: After AFL is over, do you pay any attention to the other winter leagues (Mexico, ABL, etc)? Is there a MiLB level that those leagues are equivalent to?
Keith Law: There isn’t, not for AFL either, because the range of player calibers top to bottom is much wider in those offseason leagues than it is in a typical minor league. I don’t really pay attention to the winter leagues after the AFL but will occasionally get scouting reports on players who looked substantially different there.

Logan: Will Kolby Allard improve enough from a command and secondaries standpoint to actually be a 4th/5th starter on a solid team?
Keith Law: He is a 5th starter for me now. He’d need more velocity or life on the fastball to be much more than that.

Nate: Know it’s early, but what kind of upside does Jenista possess?
Keith Law: I don’t see what position he can play for an NL team. He might be an everyday DH, but that’s not an option with Atlanta.

Gabe: You don’t think Kimbrel will get the QO? Seems to make sense to keep the team together one more year while they still have Sale and before J.D. can opt out.
Keith Law: They might offer it, but I wouldn’t. The trend lines on him are largely pointing down and the history of one-inning relievers is that their peaks are short and end abruptly.

Chester: Are Happ, Contreras, Schwarber all flops?
Keith Law: No. You could wait a minute.

Radiohix: Did you get a look at Darwinson Hernandez? what do we got here?
Keith Law: He’s also in the AFL post to which I linked earlier.

Rich: Starting to play light strategy board games with my young son. Did your daughter’s logic, critical thinking, or general math ability improve by playing those types of games?
Keith Law: Who knows? She enjoyed them, I enjoyed playing with her, and it didn’t involve staring at a screen. That’s a win for me.

Mac: What’s your take on the launch angle revolution? Do you think it’s here to stay or do you think baseball will revert back to: little guys put the ball in play and big guys swing for the fences?
Keith Law: It’s here to stay at least in part, but haven’t we always known that guys with flatter swings produced less power, and guys who swing too far uphill tended to swing and miss too much and also fail to produce the power they might physically possess? Now we just have the data to fine-tune it. The one thing I think might change is that we might see teams like the Dodgers become more discriminating in whose swings they alter – that there are just some players who become worse off by trying to optimize their launch angles for power because they become sufficiently worse hitters for contact.

Larry: Is Peter Alonso’s defense now passable like Ricciardi says?
Keith Law: It was bad in the AFL. His hands are fine, but he’s pretty big and not agile. His bat would play well at DH, but again, not an option.

Junior: Are you impressed with what Billy Eppler has done with the organization?
Keith Law: Yes, overall I think he’s done a great job to date, especially with the mandate to try to win now.

Ben: Why would the Mets hire a GM with no front-office experience?
Keith Law: Because Jeff liked him.

Joe: Interesting that each side thinks that it’s ok to change the constitution for one thing but not for the other when it comes to gun control/immigration. The argument on each side is even the same – that it was not the framers intent when they originally passed the law. I would prefer they follow the constitution in both ways. Both sides are arguing out of both sides of their mouth.
Keith Law: Well, I guess talking out of both sides of your mouth is better than talking out of your ass, Joe.

Eric: who do you think has a better career, Touki Toussaint or Shane Bieber and why?
Keith Law: Give me Touki. Better stuff, better athlete, still a year younger too.

Drake: How much of an improvement do you think we see in Devers next year?
Keith Law: I believe he will end up a star. That might be 2019, it might be 2020, but I firmly believe it’s coming.

Tony: Is Yu Chang anything other than a spare infielder? Or, put differently, in an organization other than Cleveland could he be a starter?
Keith Law: Maybe a starter in some orgs. I think he’s kind of a fringe regular.

Clayton: Kershaw’s less than stellar performance in the post season is mostly just SSS noise, right?
Keith Law: That is just noise, and better competition. What is not noise is a full year of pitching at 90-91 with less power to the slider too.

Justin: Did you get a look at Andy Young (STL) when you were at the AZ Fall League? Does he have a future as a big league UTIL guy?
Keith Law: I did and yes, if not a little more.

Chris Verdugo : Do you think the era of Donald Trump is going to motivate future Americans to become more aware and concerned about politics in general, and if so do you think the Republicans are just waiting for their demise as voters become younger and younger and side with more progressive policies?
Keith Law: I think it has alerted more people, probably on both sides if not in equal numbers, to the importance of getting involved and voting.

Patrick: Thanks again for the chats, Keith!
Do you ever read/review your daughter’s reading choices? As my son gets older, I struggle with how much to direct (approve?) his choices.
Keith Law: Yes, I do, but she also has yet to ask to read something I wouldn’t approve.

Tom: Have you read Salt Fat Acid Heat or seen the Netflix show? If so, what do you think of them?
Keith Law: I own the book but haven’t read it yet.

Patrick: Keith, your thoughts on Fox WS announcers? Would viewers be better served by PBP person that regularly works games?
Keith Law: I muted them the whole way through.

Andrew: In 2010 my friends and I went to Pitt for a Mets/pirates series. One game was rained out early and we walked around downtown Pitt. A woman saw us in Mets gear and struck up a conversation. She was from LI too and invited us to Squirrel Hill pray at a synagogue. We said we weren’t Jewish and she said it didn’t matter we were welcome anyway. I’ve always remembered the exchange and how kind and welcoming the woman was. I am really at a loss as to what happened this weekend
Keith Law: I am too. I am not Jewish, but lived very near that synagogue and interacted very often with members of the Jewish community in Squirrel Hill for two years, and never felt anything less than welcome even though I was an interloper twice over (I was a grad student, and obviously not a permanent Pittsburgh resident). The normalization of white nationalism the last three years has encouraged domestic terrorists.

Rich: I don’t know whether Kim Ng would be a good GM or not. I hope she gets a GM job sometime soon and thrives. Do you think teams interview her as a token candidate with no intention of hiring her? Seems like she has interviewed countless times and never gotten serious consideration.
Keith Law: I believe she has been used repeatedly to satisfy MLB’s unwritten Rooney rule.

Hyce Brarper: A Marlins beat writer claimed the price for JT hasn’t gone down, would still insist on Acuña. He has to be kidding, right?
Keith Law: He may not have been kidding but that ain’t happening.
Keith Law: Also, the price for any player goes down as he approaches free agency. Take an econ class, dude.

Jake: Have you seen Brusdar Graterol in person? Ace potential?
Keith Law: I have not. I’ve talked to multiple scouts about him, and the consensus was more high-end closer potential than starter potential, at least right now.

Jake: Kohl Stewart hasn’t seemed to live up to his potential so far, but his ground ball rate kept him around the majors… Do you think he ever develops further into a quality starter?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, unfortunately. I was way too high on him as an amateur/young prospect. His stuff regressed.

Patrick: If Burnes and Woodruff make Brewers rotation, do you see Counsell/Stearns letting them throw deeper into games than this year’s crop of starters? I guess I’m asking, “bullpenning” conditional on starters, or do you think an ongoing team philosophy?
Keith Law: I believe their bullpenning plan, like Tampa’s, revolved around the actual personnel on the pitching staff.

Bailey: How come you don’t care about all the food that is wasted on Top Chef?
Keith Law: Begging the question. And this has come up before: the food is not wasted.

CJC: Thoughts on Corbin at $20mm per year?
Keith Law: Sign me up for that.

Lilith: Really random question, but could you ever see a team installing a differently colored field like Boise State does in college football? Would it be breaking any rules? … I mean, Loria had to have thought of it, right?
Keith Law: I actually don’t know if there’s a rule against it, but I bet MLB would step in very quickly to quash it.

ScottyD in Downingtown: Is June 2020 a reasonable ETA for Brendan McKay to arrive in Tampa?
Keith Law: He’s ready to pitch in the majors now. That’s a long time to hold him down.

Nate: Any chance the Yankees non-tender Didi?
Keith Law: I would say no chance.

Andy: Have you ever gotten into symphonic metal, like Nightwish? It’s much less guitar driven than black metal, but better vocals, while still being instrumentally interesting.
Keith Law: Not them specifically but I pretty much like any kind of progressive or experimental metal if it’s focused on musicianship rather than speed or merely being ‘heavy.’

Kevin : Season’s over. Lets talk HoF. I know he is no longer eligible, but if he was would you vote Dwight Evans into Cooperstown?
Keith Law: Yes, I would.

Aaron G: In response to Joe re: gun laws. It says “well regulated militia” right in the text. Literal interpretation: go join a militia (currently similar to the National Guard) if you want to own a damned weapon of war.
Keith Law: Also, I haven’t heard anyone who matters suggesting that, say, the President could unilaterally revoke the Second Amendment. I’d like to see fairly strict laws on who can own guns, but I would stand between any President and an attempt to rewrite part the Constitution without going through the actual process for amending it.

Garrett: AA has already tried to pump the brakes on expectations that the Braves are going to spend big, but I look at that as just talk. But given how their farm system is balanced at the moment, aren’t they the ideal team to go for Harper? Teams are never 1 player away, but this signing would be as close too that scenario as I could imagine.
Keith Law: Do you think Liberty would authorize him to spend big like that? I rather doubt that myself. I think he’ll be allowed to make big moves, but I can’t imagine he gets to spend like that on one player.

Ira: What is your solution for illegal immigration and how to deal with current illegal residents?
Keith Law: “Solution” implies a problem. Immigration is a net positive for economies; we want immigrants to come here to contribute to our economy as workers and consumers, and should create paths for them to do so in ways that encourage them to come and work as soon as they arrive. The idea that immigration is itself a problem is both deeply ignorant of the history of our country, including our economic and cultural dependence on immigrants, and a longstanding method of creating a common enemy to use fear to drive the shrinking white majority in the country to the polls. The Hidden Brain has recently had two excellent podcasts on this topic within the last three weeks.

Brent : Did you get a chance to see CWS’s Burdi in the AFL? Any insight to how he’s look after TJ? Thanks.
Keith Law: I did not but Eric Longenhagen did and said he looked like he did pre-TJ (which is good).

Jennyfer: Nobody serious on the left is calling for the 2nd amendment to be thrown out. We’re calling for common sense restrictions. The nut in Pittsburgh was a “good guy with a gun” until he wasn’t because he did everything legally.
Keith Law: That’s been under-reported, too – the weapons he used were all purchased legally.

donn: thoughts on smoltz in the booth? Looks like we have a huge issue in sports these days with older commentators complaining nonstop about the way basketball/baseball are these days and how the game isn’t the same as it was 20/30/40 years ago. Smoltz, wilbon, and many others spend all their time complaining rather then adjusting and embracing. It becomes very annoying to listen to. Is there a solution?
Keith Law: The solution is to put different people in the booth – and you know what? sometimes that means a booth with no former MLB players in it. It can be a bonus, but it shouldn’t be a requirement.

Jay: Will Durbin Feltman be in the majors for most of ’19?
Keith Law: I think that has to be the plan; you don’t draft a college reliever that high unless you think he’s close to MLB ready.

Zihuatanejo: I’m sure you’ve already answered this question this season, but — what kind of prospect (if any) was Max Muncy prior to this year? Was this kind of breakout foreseeable at all?
Keith Law: No, it wasn’t. He didn’t have game power because his swing didn’t create it. Unless you knew he’d changed his swing and that it would be this effective, I don’t see how you could have distinguished him from a few dozen other low-power corner bats like him.

Adam: Is Tatis one of those players that will be called up 2 weeks after the season starts or due to his recent injury do you see him debuting later in the season, say September call up range?
Keith Law: I’m guessing he comes up more in June or so. He did miss a lot of at bats.

JT: Will any of Dalton Pompey, Devon Travis, or Anthony Alford ever establish themselves as a solid regular?
Keith Law: At this point I would say Alford might, the others probably won’t. Alford hasn’t lived up to my expectations for him but I hold out some hope because he is so inexperienced for his age.

RSO: Did you happen to see Brodie Van Wagenen’s interview with Mike Francesa? It was cringe worthy.
Keith Law: I only saw the Metsmerized summary. I was glad to see him say that the Mets have drafted well, which they have, although I don’t know if he mentioned that those three college arms he liked were all CAA clients (all good picks anyway … CAA reps a lot of very good prospects in every draft).
Keith Law: Again, my criticisms are not directed at BVW. He’s a bit of a blank to all of us on the outside. It’s the process that leads to his hiring over obviously qualified candidates from within the industry that I am criticizing.

Mike: The Yankees probably don’t bring back Robertson or britton. Who do you see them targeting for bullpen help?
Keith Law: Why not bring one or both back?

J: This somewhat anticipates top 100 and team rankings, but I’m wondering where you stand on Corey Ray and Lucas Erceg now, and if either has any 2019 MLB legs.
Keith Law: As much as I like Corey Ray, I have a hard time believing the 2018 power spike is meaningful when 1) scouts kept telling me he was selling out for that power and 2) he still punched out 30% of the time. There is still some hope for him and Erceg (who also had back trouble in March and then got hit in the helmet by a pitch in April), but neither has developed anywhere near as I expected. I think this has generally been an issue with Milwaukee – their best hitting prospects have stalled or regressed. Trent Grisham looked like a non-prospect to me in the AFL.

Beau: Do you think Austin Allen can be a starting MLB catcher?
Keith Law: I do not. Solid backup.

Craig: If the A’s sign Lowrie, as Rosenthal said they want to, what could Barreto fetch in a trade?
Keith Law: Barreto’s value is at an all-time low, I think.

Jacob Wohl: I’m in trouble am I not?
Keith Law: It sure looks that way. Given the hate and misinformation you’ve spewed, I’m okay with that.

Frank: Any chance the Cubs try to trade for Whit Merrifield and play Baez at SS fule time?
Keith Law: If I’m a Cubs fan that is the last thing I want them to do (the trade part – I’m good with putting Baez at SS full time). Pick up Hamels’ option, re-sign Chavez, and go hard for Machado or Harper.

Mike: I’m 40 yrs old, and thinking of learning guitar. Is it a long road to learn ?
Keith Law: I started when I was a little kid, then picked it up more seriously when I was 13. Not sure what would be involved to learn it now – but you should do it anyway. It’s fun, and it’s very good for your brain to learn a new skill like that.
Keith Law: Also, chicks dig it.

Eric: Just wanted to say thanks for you not “sticking to baseball”.
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I don’t plan to stick to baseball now or ever again.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat but I do have a few notes before I skip out. My ranking of the top 50 free agents this winter will go up Friday, but I’ll be on a brief vacation to help my parents celebrate their 50th wedding anniversary, so I will be scarce on social media through Sunday. (That also likely means the stick to baseball post will be postponed.) The next chat will be Thursday, and I’ll probably do another Periscope chat next week too. Also, one addition to a question I was asked last week in chat and yesterday on the Periscope: Another movie I’m really looking forward to is The Favourite. I saw the trailer yesterday before A Star Is Born and I am all in.
Keith Law: Thanks as always for showing up and asking so many questions. Have a safe and fun Halloween!

My latest game review for Paste covers Nyctophobia, a one-versus-many game where the ‘many’ players all wear blackout glasses and must play by touching the board and talking to their teammates.

Keith Law: Like a slow divorce … it’s Klawchat.

Joe: Keith, how bad does the Gausman trade look now the Orioles are very unlikely to be able to sign a top international player with the money they acquired?
Keith Law: As bad as it looked at the time they made the deal. They mishandled Gausman for years, and he’s already looked a little better since they traded him.

Nick: Matt Strahm – your thoughts? Starter? Long RP?
Keith Law: I still think he can start.

addoeh: Top Chef is in Kentucky this season, so expect plenty of bourbon and maybe a burgoo. I know you said you were out last year due to time, but will you come back this season even without the recaps?
Keith Law: I think so, although it’ll depend on how much time I find I have during prospect season + the glut of movies I’m already finding myself facing. It seems like we’re in for an extraordinary three months of very good movies coming out.

Aaron: Absolutely stunned that the reds didn’t choose a retread for their manager position (please don’t be Ausmus, please don’t be Ausmus.) What was his rep as a minor league coach?
Keith Law: Bell has a great reputation from when he managed and his work in player development. I know Giants people had nothing but great things to say about him. I don’t know how he’ll be as a tactical manager, or how well he’ll work with analytics, but I like that he has a lot of relevant experience.

John: Dear Dave Dombrowski, I’m sorry about all the things I said about you when you acquired Eovaldi instead of a bullpen arm. Sincerely, Johnny from Burger King
Keith Law: Turned out Eovaldi was both a floor wax and a bullpen arm!

Rob: Did you get to see Taylor Trammel while in Arizona?
Keith Law: Yep. I saw every position player who played other than a few taxi squad guys (they only play two days a week) and guys who were hurt (Luis Robert, of course).

John: Assuming that the DEA story has been fully debunked, does it make sense that no one ever picked up Hanley Ramirez for the league minimum?
Keith Law: He really has no position; it’s hard to find a spot for a guy like that, basically impossible in the NL.

Bill: I am opening a bookstore/cafe in Worcester, MA soon. Besides good brew, what sorts of things do you enjoy in such places (besides Smart Baseball!)?
Keith Law: The appeal of indie bookstores for me is the curation of the collection. You’re not selling all books, and really, if people want the latest James Patterson tripe, they can get that anywhere. I like to walk into a small bookstore and see that someone has taken the time to choose which books to sell and which books to highlight. Staffers who can talk books with me and help me discover new titles are always a bonus too. Also, donuts.

James: As a Royals fan, when should I realistically expect them to compete again? 2021?
Keith Law: That seems too soon given the state of the system.

Sam: Thoughts on Brodie Van Wagenen being a finalist for the Mets GM job? Do you feel the same way about GM jobs that you do manager jobs with respect to needing some level of experience?
Keith Law: In this case, I do. I don’t think hiring an agent who’s never worked in baseball ops to run the entire baseball ops department makes a lot of sense. The entire Mets GM search process seems badly flawed to me.

wearingwhitesoxinboston: Thoughts on the Baldelli hire? Like Cora and Roberts, he was an average player with bench coaching but no managerial experience. Is this a copy-cat move by the Twins or was he the best option? I am skeptical.
Keith Law: Cora had managerial experience.

Ron: Thoughts o n the Baldelli hire? Sounds analytical, young, has coaching and instructing experience and worked in the front office. Bad hire, good hire or “Meh”? But hasn’t managed.
Keith Law: I discussed this on the BBTN podcast this morning – I know Rocco well, and think very highly of him. He’s very bright and curious. He’s more than just open to new ideas and will work well with the stats guys. I believe he’ll be a good developmental manager. But as you said, he hasn’t managed, and that’s a negative regardless of who the candidate is. I hope he finds someone for his staff who has plenty of in-game experience and can help him learn that part of the game quickly; the track record of no-experience managers is poor.

Moe Mentum: Who starts at 1b for the Phillies on Opening Day 2019 – Santana, Hoskins, or other?
Keith Law: If it’s Hoskins, who’d be the ideal candidate in a vacuum, where does Santana play?

ScottyG: I keep hearing the Cardinals might trade Carlos Martinez this winter – I don’t get it……I know that everybody is available, but what would it take for you to deal him?
Keith Law: I don’t understand trading him now, coming off his worst year, where he didn’t stay healthy and ended up in the bullpen.

Hank: What kind of contribution do you see Eloy JIminez having next season? Is he on the level of Acuna and Soto (and potentially Vlad Jr)?
Keith Law: I think he’s a great prospect but is not on the level of those other three names.

Coarsegold: Thoughts on Manny Ramirez Hall of Fame credentials? B.S. Steroid nonsense aside.
Keith Law: He did test positive for PEDs/masking agents twice, so I’m not sure that’s just “B.S.” His case rests entirely on what you think of his defensive value; his bat clearly belongs. I don’t think he’ll be in my top ten this winter.

barbeach: Thanks for doing this chat. Is there anything that better reflects the Mets incredible dysfunction than the fact they apparently are seriously considering hiring an agent–an agent who reps some of their stars to boot–with no front office experience to run the organization?
Keith Law: Like I said above, it’s clearly a bad process. I get the strong sense they simply wanted to hire Melvin all along – perhaps because Bud Selig recommended him – and the rest was a charade.

Ben: Any chance Price opts out?
Keith Law: With known damage in his elbow? I don’t think so.

Aaron C.: The narrative seems to be that the A’s future is bright…but, is it? Relief pitching effectiveness is notoriously fluid from year-to-year. Question marks at C, 2B and OF. Regression from some A’s in your 2018 top ten team prospects list. And, not one identifiable starting pitcher for 2019 – outside of MAYBE unproven Jesus Luzardo. Weird for a 97-win team, no?
Keith Law: I agree – their system is just middle of the road, and the major league team benefited from a lot of performances that won’t be repeated, plus the likely departure of Lowrie’s production.

Danny: Hey Keith, you’ve previously mentioned that you are not as high on Brandon Nimmo as others because he is ineffective (I don’t remember your exact word choice) vs. lefties (I agreed with you). Though, someone pointed out to me that he actually posted a 112 wRC+ against LHP in 150 PAs this season. Does this change anything for you?
Keith Law: No, because that is a tiny sample, and he still punched out in 1/3 of those PA.

John: With the another team hiring a manager with no managing experience, what do minor league managers need to do to get noticed? Or are most MiLB managers just happy to be still in the game?
Keith Law: I’d really like to know what teams tell minor league managers when they’re hired or re-signed, knowing the old career path there has been largely destroyed.

Nate: Are there any political or social issues on which you take a Conservative position?
Keith Law: That term has no meaning in the abstract. “Conservative” is always relative to the rest of the populace at a specific time.

Dave: Trump is blaming the media for the pipe bombs, not himself, the GOP or anyone in his administration. At this point, does ANYTHING he says surprise you anymore?
Keith Law: No. Watching the same MAGA chuds who pushed pizzagate decry the #MAGABomber hashtag was unbefuckinglievable, though.

Brian: In your Fall League write ups you did not mention anything regarding Royals players participating. A case of nothing new to report or just not performing well enough to elicit a comment?
Keith Law: Khalil Lee didn’t look very good, and otherwise they didn’t send much in the way of prospects, since Matias was hurt, and their other top prospects are all still 19 years old or were just drafted.

Ben: Roberts says he plans to use Urias as a SP next year. Is this feasible to you?
Keith Law: That’s a question for the team doctor and training staff. I can only look at the history of pitchers who’ve had that surgery, which is very poor, but know no specifics on the state of his shoulder.

Nate: Assuming M. Andujar has to move off 3b, is 1b or LF better suited to him?
Keith Law: Probably first base, or right field, although the latter is occupied.

Salty: Heading out to AFL next week – did you stop at any new spots last week that you’d recommend?
Keith Law: Roland’s Market is open now – I went there Labor Day weekend and it was excellent. Glai Baan in Phoenix, serving Thai street food and lots of booze, was also tremendous. Copper & Cotton in south Tempe was solid but perhaps too out of the way for AFL visitors.

Mike: I really like Eppler as GM. He groomed and then hand picked Ausmus. Am I too hopeful?
Keith Law: That seemed like a weird hire to me, since Ausmus was literally 12 months removed from a managerial gig where he seemed to take no input from anyone analytical.

Seath: No question. Just wanted to say we went to Flour yesterday after visiting the MFA (they have a Winnie-the-Pooh exhibit right now) . Up until then only had their pastries. Can confirm their sandwiches are delicious and their bread is amazing!
Keith Law: awesome. flour is one of the places I miss most up in Boston.

Pistol Pete: Hey Keith, thoughts on the Greta Van Fleet album? Thoughts on Pitchfork (high on their horse) giving it a 1.6 review?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t say I loved it – I feel like they’re a lot more Kingdom Come than Led Zeppelin – but a 1.6 is way harsher than I would have gone.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Read your review for The Mind and bought it immediately. About to try it out tonight. Any tips to getting through all the levels?
Keith Law: Not really – it’s about learning to play with your partners, understanding everyone’s rhythms. Don’t forget those throwing stars, which are very valuable.

Oscar: Tell me again why we’re all supposed to just be okay with that obvious pine tar/grease stain on Kimbrel’s hat that he touches before every pitch . . . ?
Keith Law: Because every pitcher seems to do it. Price touched the bill of his cap repeatedly last night. I have no idea if there’s a substance there, but no one batted an eye.

Joe: Non-baseball Q: what is your preferred coffee making vessel? We got about four different ones for our wedding, and I’m seeing positives and negatives from all of them.
Keith Law: I use a V60 for pour-over (drip) and then I own an espresso machine. I’ve never used an Aeropress, which is very trendy now.

Pat: In case you needed a laugh today, the Orioles announced this morning that they signed Kelvin LaRoche. They also announced on August 20th that they signed Kelvin LaRoche.
Keith Law: My favorite part of this is that they signed a shortstop named Machado. Just not that one.

Gabe: Any really good iOs app games lately? I don’t have time for actual board games in my life but do have some downtime with my devices at times.
Keith Law: Last new one I tried and liked was Istanbul. I did try the new Onitama app but the AI player was too easy.

ditcow: I noticed Dave Roberts’ mismanagement of his roster is owed less to stats and more to a habit of always matching lefties and righties. Do you find his moves in alignment with the front office?
Keith Law: I doubt the front office is really a fan of his in-game management.

Jesse B: I just assumed when Archer got out of the AL East he would flourish, but he struggled. Do you think that was just an adjustment period and he’ll be a lot better next year, or is the best behind him?
Keith Law: Still hold out hope for him, but there are some clear adjustments he’ll need to make.

Joel: I am embarrassed to say I missed last week’s klaw chat. Like a lot. Do the Braves gain much by trying to go after a big pitcher in FA? Seems like letting the younger kids pitch would allow them to spend a lot more money elsewhere
Keith Law: Yeah, and this year’s FA pitching class is slim; unless they’re signing a Corbin there’s a good chance anyone they sign is worse than the best in-house alternative.

Alec: Can we get the caravan to settle in your state? Care to take some of them in? Your party white state could use the diversity after all.
Keith Law: Actually, troll, Delaware has the 6th-highest percentage of residents who are African-American, and our white non-Latino percentage is well below the median. So fuck off.

Mac: Lots of Corbin Carroll love out there. Does he have the ceiling to be a top half of the 1st round guy?
Keith Law: Little early for that. He’s a day one guy, but beyond that let’s see how he looks in the spring.

Jesse: How has Gerson Bautista looked at AFL?
Keith Law: Just another middle reliever.

Mr. Redlegs: I know positional versatility is a positive, but moving Senzel everywhere but 3rd is a bit worrisome, no? Seems better to move Suarez back to short and platoon Gennett/Peraza rather than hope Senzel can play center.
Keith Law: I’ve argued this for a while now. Moving Senzel after he worked his ass off to be an average to above-average defender at third, and given his bat, is nuts.

Este: So creationism is “fantasy”, yet the THEORY of evolution is 100 percent fact…lol
Keith Law: Imagine finding this chat but not knowing what the word “theory” means in science. It boggles.

JJ: Thoughts on Counsell’s managerial performance in the playoffs? I was pleasantly surprised especially given his lack of managerial experience prior to getting the Brewers job.
Keith Law: I was impressed too – he was nimble in-game, seemed appropriately aggressive with his bullpen (given the weak starters), chased platoon advantages in high-leverage spots. Nice job.

Guest: Is Manny Machado and everyday SS. Per Baseball Reference he had a -1.2 dWAR with Baltimore and and a 1.2 dWAR with the Dodgers. Is it just positioning and if so, what the hell is wrong with Baltimore?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. That’s some small sample size stuff there, and I don’t think he’s really an Andrelton-level defender at short like the Dodgers figure would imply. He’s also really freaking large for a shortstop. Arm would play anywhere and I think his hands are fine, but covering all that ground that we still expect shortstops to cover is probably a bit much. Plus, he’s a 70 or 80 defender at third.

Rick Sanchez: Reds SP Luis Castillo killed it in the second half after an abysmal first half. What do you project for him long-term?
Keith Law: His second half was largely buoyed by an unsustainably low BABIP. He’s a back-end starter who’d probably be more effective in relief given his lack of a decent third pitch.

Jesse: Any of the lesser known mets in AFL showing well?
Keith Law: Nope, bad showing for the Mets guys, but they didn’t send a ton either.

Taco Tuesday: Charles Leblanc has been mentioned as a possible sleeper prospect for the Rangers — decent bat and the ability to play multiple positions in the infield. Did you see anything from him in Arizona that would suggest he could be a major leaguer at some point?
Keith Law: No – he was really bad in the field, too.

Matt: After finding out Schilling wasnt invited to Game 2, I took a gander at his Twitter account. Umm…he thinks the recent mail bombs are a liberal conspiracy to get people to vote. I mean what the actual fuck?
Keith Law: Yeah, I can’t think of a reason anyone could imagine skipping that guy.

Almir Lima Jr.: Hi Keith, greetings from Brazil! What do you read from this Mets GM search? After this brief statement by Chaim Bloom, it appears that Melvin is going to get the job. Is this just sad or is there any reason to believe that Melvin is the right man right now?
Keith Law: Tudo bem! I saw Bloom’s statement and it sounds like what I said above about the process was probably accurate.

Bill: Nico Hoerner is only player from the 2018 draft in the AFL. He was hurt mid-season so he needs at bats. How is he holding up against upper level competition?
Keith Law: Smart player but didn’t make much hard contact and he’s smaller than I thought. I think maybe a high-average/high OBP second baseman?

Adam: All this talk about pitchers throwing harder/more breaking balls as an excuse for passed balls and wild pitches this post season seems to ignore the fact that the playoff teams struggling the most with this either have catching as their weak spot or offensive minded catchers in general. Shouldn’t a strong defensive catcher be more of a commodity around the trade deadline (like RP’s) for reasons like this?
Keith Law: Also, good framers tend to have more passed balls/WP, per … Harry Pavlidis, I think, told me that on Twitter?

Jordan: Considering that he will be 20 next July, would it be a bad 2019 for Kelenic if he wasn’t in High-A by the end of season?
Keith Law: No, it wouldn’t be bad, but I think he’ll get there.

Rob: Now that the Orioles lost out on the Mesa brothers how do you expect them to spend all that international bonus money they traded for?
Keith Law: They signed a few guys today – that’s what the LaRoche/Machado joke was about.

Jesse: How much of a GM job is Baseball ops and how much is it business stuff?
Keith Law: It’s all baseball ops, if you count contracts for players as baseball ops (I do). The only non-baseball responsibilities a GM would have would be on the public relations side, such as talking to corporate sponsors at an offseason event or something.

JR: In a tweet this morning you indicated that the most reasonable criticism of Melvin is that even he admitted the game has passed him by and analytics have changed a bunch in the past 5 years. Do you think the game passed Alderson by while he was still the GM? I know at one time he was seen as being at the forefront of analytics, but it felt like the past few years he was stuck on cruise control while others passed him by.
Keith Law: They weren’t very analytically-minded the last few years, especially when managing the major-league club (much more so in the draft), despite having a real analytics department. I have to assume that came from Sandy.

RyanW: Anything new to report on Cole Tucker after your time in the AFL? Seems like he lacked hard contact this year in AA, is there anymore strength coming is he a 40 raw power type who needs to get to all of his hit tool to be an average regular at SS?
Keith Law: Good athlete who still could grow into a little power, but he’s also very inconsistent at short, especially when throwing.
Keith Law: As in, maybe he doesn’t stay there.

Brian: If Schoop doesn’t rebound from whatever funk plagued him with the Brewers, is Keston Hiura ready to man 2B in 2019? It seems like his bat should be fine, but what about defense?
Keith Law: I think his defense will be adequate, good enough to stay there. I wish I’d seen him hit anything hard last week – it was one groundball after another.

Zac: On a scale of 1-10 how surprised are you that Ausmus got another managing job
Keith Law: Maybe a 2. I figured he’d get it. He went to Dartmouth, he likely interviews well, teams do like to re-hire guys who’ve managed in the majors. O AN HE SEXY.

Andrew: Any books/apps/websites you recommend for meditation?
Keith Law: Fully Present (book) is my go-to.

John Farrell: Isn’t Roberts taking heat for lineup decisions being made by Friedman ?
Keith Law: That’s not how it works … that’s not how any of this works.

Jake: Does Royce Lewis stick at SS long term?
Keith Law: My gut is still no. I got mixed reports from scouts who saw him this year.

Kyle: Is there scientific evidence and support for the dangers of fracking or is it mostly hypothetical at this point?
Keith Law: You can find several papers on this if you search journal papers – on fracking causing earthquakes, for example, or how repeated fracking can contaminate groundwater.

Brian: Hey Keith, love your work. Just wanted to know if you had heard any new industry buzz the Giants next GM. Thanks!
Keith Law: The two names I’ve heard were Jason McLeod of the Cubs and Amiel Sawdaye of the Dbacks, both of whom have roots with the Red Sox, but I have no idea who else is in the process.

Nick: Why do some people think enjoying baseball and liking analytics is mutually exclusive? I enjoy baseball MORE because of the plethora of information available. More data also means my team wins more, which is literally the best thing.
Keith Law: I like to learn things about topics that interest me. I doubt I’m the only one.

Samantha: Any chance Heyward opts out?
Keith Law: Highly doubt it.

Jesse B: Angels still have 3 years and $78 million left on Pujols contract, let that soak in. Assuming Ohtani is going to have to DH next year, what do you do with Pujols at this point? He’s 48, I mean 38, is he just an pinch hitter for 3 years, or do youjust eat the $78 mill and move on?
Keith Law: I would release Pujols. He’s a zero at the plate, he already hit the 3000 hit mark, and he is just burning a roster spot at this point.

Brett: O/U 10 starts for Forrest Whitley in 2019?
Keith Law: In the majors? Over.

Dr. Bob: I think the Dodgers are going to have the most difficult decision of the offseason if Kershaw opts out. A guy moving on the wrong side of 30 who had missed time with injury the last three years and whose velocity has dipped. He will want more than the $30 million and two years left on the contract.
Keith Law: I think you offer to tack on another year or two at a lower salary and see if that solves the problem. He’s not getting 4 and $120 million in this market.

RJS: Follow up on Manny-HOF question. Is he a guy who’d hypothetically be 11th on your list this year, but maybe 9th on your ballot next year after some elections/ballot clearing? Would you vote for the top 10 regardless given the backlog or would you only vote for 7-8 potentially in a given year?
Keith Law: I’ll always vote for the top ten. I don’t like the idea of trying to game the ballot, not least because it’s a good way to outsmart yourself.

Sticky Wicky: The Astros supposedly stealing signs — how much of this is grousing over a really good team, as compared to Houston pushing the envelope on spying compared to the rest of the league?
Keith Law: I’ve heard other rumors about them stealing signs beyond that guy in the camera well. We’ll see if any of those rumors end up confirmed anywhere. I don’t think they’re the only team trying such stuff, though.

Erik: Hey Keith, I just finished “When We Were Orphans” by Kazuo Ishiguro. I couldn’t find your review of it on this site (unless I missed it?). What did you think and how do you think it compares to some of his other works?
Keith Law: I think it’s the only book of his I didn’t review (but I did read it), just because it was kind of meh. Not great, not bad like Unconsoled.

Blake: Random question: Do you like/watch bill maher?
Keith Law: No, and thus no.

Jon: Keith, thoughts on Yusei Kikuchi please? Thank you in advance if answered.
Keith Law: He’ll be on my top 50 free agents post when that goes up after the World Series (assuming he is coming over, which all indications I’ve heard are that he will).

Chris: Keith, I know you favor guys who have actually managed before being hired for MLB mgr gigs, but would managing in the minors be somewhat overvalued since that seems to involve a lot of pursuing organizational development goals for the players and not strict in game tactics/strategy and the like? I admittedly speak from ignorance and am not trying to be a wiseass.
Keith Law: No, I still think that’s valuable – having to set lineups, handle in-game changes, consider tactics, still try to win while also considering usage restrictions, etc.

Jerry: Astros need a catcher in 2019. Marlins are open for business (supposedly). Should the Astros be willing to deal Tucker or Whitley to get the deal done? Any chance the Marlins would be willing to take some combination of Bukauskus, Alvarez, Corbin Martin instead?
Keith Law: I’d consider putting Tucker into that deal, but no way I trade Whitley for Realmuto. The other guys are all distinctly second-tier.

PhillyJake: Re: Archer – he did make the changes. His numbers over his last 30 innings were good. The difference? He stopped shaking off Cervelli.
Keith Law: It’s such a small sample that I don’t want to read too much into it yet.

Nick: Have you seen Arquimedes Gamboa in the AFL? Thoughts?
Keith Law: Yes, borderline non-prospect.

Nate: Besides guacamole, any recommendations for using avocado?
Keith Law: Makes a great salsa for topping fish, pork, even grilled chicken. I’m told it makes a good ice cream but I’ll pass on that.

Andy: Adalberto Mondesi? Real?
Keith Law: He is a real person, yes.

Bob W.: Jim Kaat recently decried the general practice of wheeler-dealer moves at the trade deadlines, using the “rooting for laundry” epithet to describe a team that’s been cobbled together by the GM. Realistically, though, isn’t this the only way small market teams like the Twins, Brewers, Royals, etc. can compete for the postseason?
Keith Law: Yes, and that has existed in baseball since Kaat was playing. I enjoyed Jim’s work for years when he moved into the booth. Watching him turn into this Luddite curmudgeon – he’s attacked me, and my book, specifically, to be completely up front here – has disappointed me in a personal way.

Josh in DC: I’ve been enjoying your book, but there’s one aspect (thus far) that troubles me. You highlight the flaws in the old stats, and make a case for the better ones. But what hasn’t come across (to me) is arguments within the analytical community. There seems to be such consensus (Jack Morris: bad; Scott Rolen: good). Where do you find yourself disagreeing with other analytically minded peers?
Keith Law: Lots of issues. I’ve long argued that Fangraphs’ attempts to put dollar values on players as multiples of their WAR is absurd, since the value of a marginal win will vary by team by year. I think framing numbers are volatile enough that I’d regress them substantially rather than merely adding them to a player’s defensive runs saved. (Framing is real, BTW. I’m not arguing it’s bogus.) I also am probably out of step with the common thinking on delaying prospects to manipulate service time and stave off super two or free agency.

Thomas: You’re on your A game with the trolls today (when aren’t you?) Please keep it coming, it’s making my miserable day much brighter!!!
Keith Law: The great thing about trolls is that they’re not very bright as a species.

William: Just saw Robyn Hitchcock in Chicago! What’s the ethical thing for the Cubs to do with Addison Russell at this point?
Keith Law: Probably trade him for nothing. They don’t need him anyway.

Frank: Has judge exceeded your expectations? I know you mentioned the power would be there, but didn’t expect him to hold a high bb%?
Keith Law: Oh yeah, he would’ve been a top 10 prospect if I’d thought he’d become this kind of hitter.

Jon: Don’t forget your free taco Keith
Keith Law: seriously? are we just not doing phrasing any more?

Tyler: College pitching crop looks weak this year. Any guys currently under the radar that you think could jump into day one conversation?
Keith Law: It’s the worst college pitching crop, for this point in the calendar, that I can remember.

Nick: There was a report yesterday that Harper wants at least 10 years/$350m. Over/under? I say over.
Keith Law: Hm. I’m torn here. I would have said over $300 million, but $350 million makes me pause. I’ll guess under.

John Jacob Astor: New indie book stores are great but if you want a magical experience look at great used bookshops
Keith Law: I do. Many of my favorite indie stores sell new and used (like Changing Hands in Phoenix & Tempe).

Dr. Bob: But Ausmus said that he thinks he needs to try some of these new-fangled stat thingies. Doesn’t that make it all okay?
Keith Law: With all thy getting, get understanding, Brad.

Andy: Whit Merrifield is…*exactly* the sort of guy you have to trade, right? Like, the dictionary definition of same?
Keith Law: Yes, like, yesterday.

Joe: Any thoughts on what to expect from Margot going forward? Anything positive this season? Lots of Padre fans seem down on him but he’s still young.
Keith Law: I’m still expecting an above-average regular. Very young, can play the hell out of CF, needs more strength.

Nuggets & Mac ‘n Cheese: You seem to be raising a healthy, curious eater. Any tips for someone with 3-year-old twins who don’t want to eat anything but waffles and PB&J?
Keith Law: Exposure. My daughter was welcome to try anything I ate, anywhere we went, and I took her to a lot of different restaurants when she was as young as 4-5. She didn’t love vegetables and still doesn’t, but she’ll eat a lot of other things (the child loves mushrooms, so mushrooms we will eat, and often) and she will truly try anything at this point.

VVM: There have been varying opinions on VIctor Victor Mesa. Have seen Almora, Robles and Trammell comps. Would love to hear your 2 cents, thanks!
Keith Law: Below all three of those guys. I hear a lot of “extra outfielder” from scouts.

BG: Any plans to post any of your recipes? I was able to impress my then girlfriend (and now wife!) with your roasted red pepper pesto way back in ’08.
Keith Law: I wing it so often at this point that I’d have to slow down and think about what I’m making to turn it into a recipe. I often just buy ingredients and roll with it.

Jared: As a Brewer fan, it was painfully frustrating to listen to the national media. Why do they not even try to understand analytics or explain them to the common fans?
Keith Law: Mute button is your friend.

Jordan: What have you thought of Amed Rosario’s defense at SS so far? Should Mets try Gimenez there when he comes up and move Rosario to 3B or CF?
Keith Law: I think Rosario is fine at short and will end up plus. Gimenez is a great defensive shortstop with no impact with the bat.

Matt: Corbin Burnes has fallen into that prospect coverage no man’s land where he’s no longer rookie eligible, but also isn’t in his long-term future role. I know you were a fan of his last, and his stuff looked electric when I watched him in the playoffs. Do you think he can still be a SP2?
Keith Law: I 100% do. Brewers could have a pretty good rotation next year with Chacin, Burnes, Woodruff, Anderson.

Gob: Yordan Alvarez is “second-tier”?
Keith Law: Yes. Or third-tier.

Andy: On the Mondesi response – it’s your chat, do what you want, but I was trying to introduce a question without being pandering or you-hate-my-team-baiting. I really am curious to see if (and how) your perspective on him has changed now that he appears to have translated some tools to performance. If he can’t develop a feel for pitching, obviously there’s a hard cap on his upside, but this year was still welcome as a fan.
Keith Law: I needed more from you to answer it – I truly didn’t know what you were asking. He has tools, as you said – real speed, good bat-to-ball skill, hard contact (although I’m still very skeptical of the power, which may just be the MLB ball). But he walks once per solstice, and his approach was stunted by lost time and an organizational decision to have him work on bunting more and thus working the count less. It’s going to take a lot of work on his part to gain some semblance of strike zone knowledge to be more than a better Escobar.

AGirlHasNoName: I live in a country that sends military to stop poor people, where my leader incites violence against the media, calls women he paid to have sex horseface, and draws big crowds of sycophants on the weekly. What brand of whiskey helps most to forget?
Keith Law: Feels like something Irish would be appropriate. Pull up a chair, I’ll pour you two fingers of Teeling.

Joe: Hi Keith. Padres Twitter has been driven by two storylines this fall; trading prospect depth for A TOR arm, and deciding who to keep between Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes. Personally I think they should hold onto depthbefore trading anybody, and I don’t buy into Renfroe or Reyes as future pieces. What say you?
Keith Law: I agree with you on both.

Ian: Franklin Barreto strikes out a lot, but so did Matt Chapman. What’s the difference between the two? And if you’re the A’s do you keep Lowrie or hand the job to Barreto?
Keith Law: Chapman has real power and is an elite defender. Barreto doesn’t have much power and isn’t an elite defender.

Matt: Judd Fabian and Corey Acton are graduating in December of their senior year in high school to enroll early at Florida so they can play college ball. Do you see more kids doing that in the future?
Keith Law: I hate when players do this and have always discouraged players or parents when I’m asked my opinion on this.

John: I just want to say Thank you for calling out those who try to employ “whataboutism” as a rhetorical device. Life’s too short to suffer these people’s “arguments.”
Keith Law: It’s become increasingly popular these days too.

AES: Re: Machado, can we agree he seems to be a dirty player, but whatever he does between the lines is about 8 tiers better than those who hurt people outside them?
Keith Law: Eh, I’m not sure I love that comparison. He’s done some shady stuff on the field this postseason. He’s also ultracompetitive, which is something you do want as a GM or manager.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week’s chat. Thank you all so much for your questions, as always. If I chat next week, it’ll be Wednesday rather than Thursday, so please keep an eye out for an announcement. Enjoy the last weekend of regular baseball for 2018!

Keith Law: Try to click with whatcha got. Klawchat.

Devon: As a Braves fan, I was thinking recently about the weirdest trade I can remember and it always comes back to the Alex Wood for Hector Olivera fiasco. That trade was weird at the time and it’s aged poorly. Did it make any sense to you? What’s a trade you can think of that you read and said “Huh?”
Keith Law: That’s one of the weirdest, worst ones I can think of – Atlanta’s international guys loved Olivera as a free agent, and somehow that became the justification to trade for the guy even after he’d played a little in pro ball and people realized he wasn’t very good. And then they overestimated the odds of Wood getting hurt (which he did, but only after providing a lot of value). Of course, Coppolella was on the good end of the most lopsided deal I can remember in recent years – the Shelby Miller heist.

Gamecocks: You have mentioned in the past that you think Clarke Schmidt is a reliever. Have you heard or seen anything recently that changes your mind?
Keith Law: On the contrary, he made all of two appearances this year before getting hurt again. And it’s a high-risk delivery. I think he’s more likely to be a reliever than I did two years ago, not less.

Nate: Now that each player has a full season at the MLB level, how do you project Albies, Swanson, and Camargo? All average to slightly above? Major concerns?
Keith Law: Albies has the upside of a star, but he got so homer-happy after the hot start that he nuked his own value. He has to become more disciplined first, and then some power will arise as a natural result. Swanson average regular. Camargo somewhere around there too, maybe a shade below. He’s another guy who’s shown unexpected power thanks to the MLB ball, after showing none in the minors.

Dr. Bob: Though the Yanks won 100 games, did Aaron Boone’s lack of experience show in his bullpen usage this series? Or is that unfair?
Keith Law: I think it’s quite fair – and yes, he won 100 games, but he inherited a team that won 91, and the AL was more stratified this year so I don’t think his team faced as difficult a schedule.

Stats Novice: I saw on Twitter you mentioned Bogaerts being 2-25 against Severino is just randomness, and too small of a sample to be considered meaningful data. At what point, if ever, does data like that become meaningful? Is it still possible for a hitter to perform better/worse against a certain pitcher if the sample size is long enough?
Keith Law: By the time such a sample was meaningful, so much time would have elapsed that the players would have changed to the point that the early data have lost their utility.

Nate: Which of these 5 is in the Braves rotation at the end of next season (barring injury of course): Folty, Tehran, Gausman, Newk, Touki, Wright, Gohara, Fried, Wilson, other?
Keith Law: Folty, Gausman, Touki are the three I feel most confident in. Wilson could be back by year-end but I feel like they won’t rush him next spring. I still very much believe in Fried as a starter too.

de la: Hi, thanks as always. Which young starters would be best to build around: Borucki, BKeller, Peralta, DRodriguez or Suarez?
Keith Law: I don’t have any of those guys as long-term average starters. I’m sure one will be, because baseball, but as a portfolio of guys they’re all kind of in that back-end starter bucket. Borucki intrigues me the most.

Everyone: Obligatory Victor Mesa question: Is he (and his brother) worth the hype?
Keith Law: I have heard that they are less than the hype – great workout guys, maybe not such great players. I didn’t see their workout in Miami as it was closed to anyone but team personnel.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Reading post season updates to the Phillies farm and I don’t like what I see. Obviously they haven’t hit on any of their first round picks, could you explain why you think this is? Bad luck? Bad scouting? Bad philosophy? Thanks!
Keith Law: Their philosophy on first-round picks isn’t working out. They’ve done better with some later picks, and international continues to provide depth and length to the system. But they need a change of strategy for the first pick after three straight that appear not to have worked (not counting Bohm).

TF Fredrik: What is your best guess as to where pitching will go in ten years? I would assume that front offices have been running the numbers on every conceivable iteration of filling 9 innings that we could think of. With Rays leading the charge, has the dam broken? What would be best combination of filling innings, keeping pitchers happy, avoiding injuries, & getting highest level of performance?
Keith Law: I think using of pitchers for multiple innings with one to three days off between outings will become increasingly common as a way to balance effectiveness and health.

Bill: Phillies fans should probably be concerned about Sixto’s abrupt removal from the AFL roster right?
Keith Law: Guy hasn’t stayed healthy and apparently his conditioning isn’t so great right now. It’s a concern, yes. I haven’t heard that this is serious, though.

Tom: I was happy to see that the Mets were interviewing Chaim Bloom and considering Mike Chernoff. Guys from front offices that win while not spending money would seem to fit the Wilpon’s vision. Do you think either would be a good choice?
Keith Law: I do. Granted, I’m not sure Mets fans should resign themselves to life as a small-market team…

Eric: The Twins hiring David Ross would be __________.
Keith Law: Repeating a mistake.

PhillyJake: Did you register to vote?
Keith Law: Yes. I’ll be voting pro-science right down the line.

Adam: Does a Byron Buxton for Manuel Margot challenge trade make sense for the Twins and Padres, or does one team have to give up more than the other?
Keith Law: Bad deal for the Twins.

Ryan: braves sign harper?
Keith Law: Extremely unlikely.

Adam: Considering the sheer volume of players the Padres signed from the 2016 J2 class, how would you rate the results/progress from that group so far?
Keith Law: Excellent. Seems like every two months we hear about another guy popping from that class.

mike: what was the point of toronto sending Vlad Jr to Arizona?? He’s killing it as expected
Keith Law: Gotta work (snicker) on his (chortle) defense (GUFFAW).

Ben: Did I catch an Oasis quote in the opening line? What brought out such an old lyric (from my favorite band)?
Keith Law: I’ve been playing that song pretty much every day on the guitar.

Tim: Bone Spurs removed for Nick Senzel. Any reason to fret on this kind of surgery/injury for a position player? Thanks.
Keith Law: No, unless they find the spurs damaged the UCL (I don’t think they did).

Adam: If Manny Machado is the ceiling of Fernando Tatis Jr, is Trevor Story the realistic outcome?
Keith Law: I’d be floored if Tatis struck out with that frequency.

Nick: Who are some names I should I be excited to hear for the Mets GM search? Who are some names I should roll my eyes at that they’ll likely end up with?
Keith Law: The Mets need to hire someone who is comfortable with analytics. That can be someone of just about any age. It would not be, say, Ned Colletti. (Rinse and repeat for Baltimore.)

Jeff: Keith, thanks for your insight and wisdom. Regarding the Dodgers, if money is not a factor, would you consider signing Machado and trying to shuffle Seager or Turner to make room in the infield? What other priorities would you have in the offseason regardless of the playoff outcome?
Keith Law: I’ll answer with a question: What is Seager capable of doing after TJ? Is his arm affected at all, so that shortstop is no longer feasible? That may determine the correct strategy more than anything about Machado per se

A big dumb idiot: How popular would this chat be if your dad was a plumber from Poughkeepsie?
Keith Law: Good question. My dad was actually an electrical engineer from the Bronx, which I don’t know if it’s better or worse.

Adam: Are HS corner only bats undervalued in the draft?
Keith Law: Not in my opinion. Their floor is essentially zero and their failure rate is pretty high. I would not include HS 3B in that group, though – third base is a skill position, much more than the other three corner spots, and a HS player who can play third should be grouped with second basemen.

Hernando: In three years what do you envision from the following: Jarred Kelenic, Amed Rosario, Andres Giminez, David Peterson?
Keith Law: Star, above-average regular to star, regular, mid-rotation starter. I hate the Mets, by the way.

Guest: If you were Brian Cashman, would you: a) sign Manny Machado and move Andujar to the outfield or b) sign Bryce Harper and live with Andujar’s bad defence at 3rd?
Keith Law: If they want to sign Machado, Andujar isn’t a factor. That’s a four- to six-win upgrade at third. You sign Manny and figure the rest out later.

Asking4aFriend: Which prospects are you excited to see in the AFL?
Keith Law: All of them is a little facile .. but it’s my favorite trip of the year. Nate Pearson is one. Luis Robert is another. Lucius Fox. Hudson Potts. Forrest Whitley, of course. Taylor Trammell. Nico Hoerner, Jahmai Jones as a 2b. Jazz Chisholm. Juan Pablo Martinez. And there’s this big guy from the Jays who can rake…

Mike: Is there any reason to believe Gary Sanchez will ever become a league-average defensive catcher? It seems that his defensive struggles are getting worse: I’ve never seen a major league catcher react so poorly in trying to receivable “catchable” pitches.
Keith Law: He’s looked bad, although I feel like he catches a lot of guys who throw really hard with a lot of spin on everything. We’ve seen a lot of catchers get better once in the majors, so I hate to rule it out, but I do feel a bit like he’s regressing from where he was as a rookie or even in double-A when he finally seemed to have taken the defensive side of his game seriously.

Dr. Bob: Is the key for deciding starter/reliever the number of pitches he can command? 1 or 2 pitches = reliever? 3 or more pitches = starter?
Keith Law: Very few ML starters have only 2 average or better pitches. If you don’t have a change or split, you’re going to have a real platoon issue. If you don’t have a breaking ball, you may have a lot of trouble with same-side hitters.

AES: Would you start Price, or move him into a fireman’s role? 10 starts is tiny, but there are other viable options. . .
Keith Law: I don’t think his postseason data tell us anything, but I do worry that he’s not fully healthy.

Ed: If you’re the Cubs, do you pick up Hamels’ option for next year?
Keith Law: Absolutely – or, before that, I offer him something like 2/$35 million instead.

All Mets Fans: Do you think the Wilpons are financially capable of giving out a contract to Machado or Harper?
Keith Law: Whether or not they’re capable, they ain’t willing.

JL: Hi Keith, thanks for the chats. Apologies if this is too personal or you’ve covered this before. But my wife and I have an 11 month old and due to how difficult the pregnancy was on her with some health issues, he will likely be our only child and we are ok with this. Is there any unique advice you can share about having only one child? We try to focus on all of the positives of it! Thanks!
Keith Law: All the stuff we learned or heard about raising an only child turned out to be not that useful. I don’t think we ever did anything different because she was our only one. It was easier for us that she never wanted a sibling, too.

Steve: What did you see as the biggest change in Michael King? What would his upside be given 2018 success?
Keith Law: Addressed a few weeks ago in this column. Stat line is very misleading.

Taylor: Alek Thomas seems like a potential plus hit, plus defense, average power center fielder. What do you think of his potential? Is he a future star? Thank you!
Keith Law: Potential future star, yes. Thought he had first-round ability in the draft but had the downside of playing in the cold against weak competition.

Dana: If the Yanks sign Machado, do you think Andujar has the ability to become an OK first baseman?
Keith Law: Probably, if they’re willing to move on from Bird at that spot. But see above – the presence of Andujar shouldn’t affect their choice on Machado.

Taylor: Lots of rumors in the second half of Severino tipping his pitches…again now after his most recent start. As a scout, how difficult is it to notice when someone is tipping their pitches and do you think this actually happens often or is just a convenient excuse?
Keith Law: Occasionally true, usually an excuse. Here I think it’s an excuse. His command has been noticeably off in the second half.

addoeh: I was reading this book called Smart Baseball (the author’s name eludes me right now) and there were sections about high-spin fastballs and average spin rate fastballs. But what about the effect of below average spin rate fastballs? Is the effect of spin rate linear based on the spin rate or is it more of a curve?
Keith Law: More of a curve. Way worse to have average spin. Better to be near the extremes of the range.

Nate: Do you see Weigel ever factoring into the Braves plans, or did the lost time due to injury result in him being passed by too many other arms?
Keith Law: Oh I think he sees the majors next year. He apparently hit 99 in instructs last month. Just not sure how much he’ll be able to pitch in 2019, but he’s a future rotation piece too.

Jax: Conforto had a great ending to the season. You think he’s primed to have a career year in 2019?
Keith Law: Yes, strictly because I think he’s healthy, and he would have had that season this year had he been so.

Mike: When will America realize that the only tangible form of voter fraud going on is voter suppression, which is primarily perpetrated by Republicans against people of color?
Keith Law: I would say 30% or more of American voters are completely fine with voter suppression. By the way, if you live in Georgia and haven’t called the State House and your state rep and senator to scream about Brian Kemp abusing his power to try to suppress votes for his opponent, you should be doing so today.

Jennyfer: Isn’t there a psychological component to knowing that you’ve had great success against a certain pitcher or have failed miserably against them? That’s not to say you can’t have success, but sometimes I feel like you ignore the mental aspect of the game because it’s not quantifiable across a broad spectrum.
Keith Law: If it exists it has been either too small to measure or too hard to detect in the tiny samples with which we have to work. The result in either case is that it shouldn’t affect our decision-making.
Keith Law: Also, I tend to think that players who are that vulnerable wash out before they reach the majors. The pressure on these guys to reach the top of the pyramid is already tremendous.

Archie: If you were hired to run the Giants, would you consider pursuing Goldy?
Keith Law: No. I don’t think they have the prospects for it, and that roster needs to be turned over, not propped up like Weekend at Posey’s.

Bryce Harper: Should the Nationals sign me for $300M over 8 with an opt-out for me or sign Corbin and a 2B or C instead?
Keith Law: Probably better to do the latter, as much as I believe in Harper returning to stardom. I also think Robles is a stud, and they’d extract more value from their money by playing him and Soto every day, then spending the way you suggested.

Billy: What do you think of the Dbacks potential firesale? To me, I think it’s absolutely necessary. What say you?
Keith Law: Same.

Jim Nantz: Any thoughts on candidates for the next Rangers job? I remember you were high on Cora for a few years and that’s obviously worked out well. Who’s the next guy on your list?
Keith Law: I saw Jayce Tingler’s name come up in some local media coverage and I think he’d be excellent.

addoeh: If Vlad Gurrero Jr’s dad were an undertaker from Uusikaupunki, would he still be a top-10 prospect?
Keith Law: He’d be #1 on my best prospects in pesäpallo rankings.

Rick C: I think you sell Camargo short. Sure, the ball is probably helping him, but he’s also gotten bigger and stronger, and improved his approach at the plate.
Keith Law: Bigger and stronger I buy. I don’t think his approach is actually that good.

Cooper: The Dbacks may have four first round picks and 5 of the top 50 in this upcoming draft. Is this a solid enough draft that Dbacks fans should get really excited about this potential haul?
Keith Law: It’s not a good draft but five of the top 50 is still good enough to make some noise.

Chris: Thinking of heading down to the AFL in a week or two for the first time. What are a couple things to do nearby?
Keith Law: Other than eating? I didn’t do a ton of touristy stuff while living there but the Zoo and Botanical Gardens are both great, the Science Museum is solid, and there’s a lot of good hiking in the metro area.

Steven: Do you feel vindicated at all by Alex Cora’s success? I remember you being a bit annoyed that he hadn’t been given a chance to manage before this.
Keith Law: More relieved to see him get the chance, because I knew he’d do well and respect him tremendously, and because I think it may further open the door for people of color to get legitimate interviews and chances to manage.

Kevin: Give us a conspiracy theory you give the best chance of being true. Use as loose of a definition for conspiracy theory as you need.
Keith Law: MLB knew the ball was juiced.

Steve: Does Loaisiga have a shot to be full time rotation guy next season? Showed flashes in few appearances.
Keith Law: If healthy, which he has almost never been for a full season.

Brian: Have you watched Kyler Murray at all on a football field? Even if you aren’t a fan of the sport his athleticism on the field is jaw dropping. He runs like he has a turbo button.
Keith Law: I’ve seen highlights of him running. I also think he looks kind of small even among college players.

Steve: Blake Snell is the only pitcher in history with 20+ wins, an ERA -2.00 and ave 11+ Ks in a season. Not Johnson, Grove, Koufax etc How can he not win the Cy Young?
Keith Law: Strikeouts are at an all-time high in the game right now. That’s really a bad comparison.

Jack: I know you said last year that the Braves should trade Ender (rightfully, in my opinion) and caught a lot of slack for it. Should the Braves explore that option this summer and what kind of return could they expect?
Keith Law: Yes, I still think so, but the return might be half what it would have been last winter. With Acuna there and Pache’s glove already major-league ready, trading Inciarte still makes sense. He’s a starter for a lot of teams and underpaid, so you might get two decent prospects for him.

Mike: Keith, I like the “pro-science-down-the-line” voting philosophy. Do you know if there is a site that tracks candidates based on their views on science-related issues, or are there a few “litmus test” issues you use to evaluate candidates?
Keith Law: 314action.org is a good resource. Climate change and evolution (teaching it in schools, without fantasies alongside them) are my two main tests – you’ll usually find a quick split with those two alone.

Chris: Some people have floated the narrative that Scott Boras is pissed at the Cubs for manipulating Kris Bryant’s service time by not promoting him until May in 2015 and as a result he would not only dissuade Bryant from signing a long-term contract before he hits free agency, but steer him away from the Cubs once he does. How stupid is that claim? Money talks, no?
Keith Law: It’s more likely that Bryant is still pissed than Boras is. Boras might advise his client not to take a deal, but if the client says “take it,” then they will.

Jake: Any interest in the Giants job? You could love the a very progressive city and run a team with a massive payroll, but has been slapped in the face recently due to their reliance on overpaid, older players. Seems like it could be a solid fix-it-up project.
Keith Law: I’m not on any team’s longlist, but that is a very appealing job for a qualified candidate, for the reasons you said, a longstanding analytics presence, some very good longtime scouts, and an unbelievable local food and coffee scene within walking distance of the ballpark.

Dusty: Any thoughts you have on Wander Javier coming into the 2019 season? Can he shoot his way back into the top 100?
Keith Law: He wasn’t in my top 100 before so that’s a no.

James: If pitcher vs hitter data is not useful on a 1 to 1 basis (1 hitter vs 1 specific pitcher), do you think we’ll get to the point where a pitcher can be grouped into a bucket (power pitcher, command pitcher) and a hitter’s splits against that TYPE of pitcher will be useful? For example, hitter X struggles against hard thrower with a slider, but is better against a hard thrower with a curveball? Is there value to extract from that? Presumably teams are already doing it?
Keith Law: We already do that. That’s what platoon split data are.

Diego: Any thoughts on why LaCava and Cherington would decline to interview for Mets GM job?
Keith Law: Cherington declined, as did Levine. I don’t know if Lacava declined or wasn’t asked. I think the industry impression of that job is negative – that you’re being asked to win while your hands are tied by a low payroll and meddlesome ownership.

Joules: Why would Machado insist on SS suddenly? Top 2 3B in baseball, pretty rough at SS. Is this possibly coming from his agent?
Keith Law: Maybe, but also, I wonder if this is just to open up his market further.

PD: Do you know the typical thresholds for when the P Value becomes significant for batter versus pitcher match ups? It’s dependent upon the current results wouldn’t a .050 BA over 50 or 100 PA for example be enough to say that a certain batter does not bat as well against a pitcher has he would on average?
Keith Law: It’s never. The best answer is never. I’m amazed by how often people want to come up with some number where the data are meaningful. If a batter faced the same pitcher every day for a year, maybe we could talk.

Dr. Bob: When my boys played in Little League, I noticed boys who were better than the others not be better a couple of years later. Some develop earlier than others. That must make scouting high school players tough. Some may have already peaked.
Keith Law: It’s why I ignore any list that pretends to rank high school prospects for any draft beyond the current cycle. Remember how Drew Ward was supposed to be the best player in his class? He ended up a bad pick in the third round. He was 16 as a high school freshman and huge for his age. When the other players caught up physically it turned out that had been his only advantage.

jimmyb: I know you have nothing to do with the selection of ads on the Baseball Tonight podcast, but do you find it odd (or perhaps, concerning) that ESPN is running ads for Juul, given the issues associated with specifically targeting minors?
Keith Law: I don’t actually know what that is.

Fred: Do Execs ever ask you your opinions on prospects in other orgs?
Keith Law: Of course. Now, whether they take those opinions seriously is another question…

JR: You think we get a WS rematch? I think we do.
Keith Law: Yeah, that’s my prediction. Dodgers in 6, Astros in 6. I think I’d rather see Boston get there from the AL for a different mix of players (especially getting Mookie Betts on TV all those games), and of course Milwaukee making it for the second time in franchise history (first in 35 years) would be an amazing story, but I don’t think that happens.

Chris: On a Prospects Live podcast, you were singled out as someone who was down on Andres Gimenez hitting ability because you hadn’t seen him in a while. Has he improved or is he still not an impact bat?
Keith Law: Sounds like a mistake. I just saw him this summer.

andy: If the Rockies make an earnest attempt to extend Arenado and he says no and chooses to enter the year without an extension in place, what would you do were you in Bridich’s shoes? Would you trade him or ‘go for it’ with him on an expiring deal, knowing you might end up losing him for just a comp pick?
Keith Law: No, I’d trade him. You’re talking about a team that barely made the playoffs this year – the odds of them doing so again aren’t so high that I’d value retaining him knowing we might only get that draft pick.

Steve: I realize “fairness” isn’t exactly the best word, so I’ll try this instead. Do you think the MLB postseason offers the best possible outcomes? So many games played for a potential one and done or blip over a 5 game series seems, well, unfair, especially given that the performance is used as a sign of success. Do you think there’s a may to make the postseason more meritocratic?
Keith Law: I don’t, nor do I think that’s the point. We can argue over who’s the best team after the regular season. The postseason is just a tournament for a trophy. It’ll never determine who’s best – it determines who gets the trophy. I think most fans are good with this split, as am I.

Michael K : Hi Keith. I’m a huge fan of the Giants. I haven’t heard any real rumors of who they are talking to regarding their open GM/Head of Baseball ops. Have you?
Keith Law: Not many. One name I did hear was Jason McLeod of the Cubs, who’d be excellent and has the background from working there and in Boston, in scouting and player development for two orgs with strong analytics departments. I haven’t checked to see if there’s anything to it, but he’s the right prototype for the Giants, who have been and should commit to remaining a strong scouting organization.

Deke: Have you heard of CBD gummies? They’re apparently gaining in popularity as a knockoff anxiety helper. Any opinion?
Keith Law: Heard of, there’s a little evidence that they work (it’s extremely hard to research anything related to marijuana because we live in Gilead), but I haven’t tried them.

Matt: A bit of a random question here, but do older pitchers tend to decline gradually or fall off cliffs without warning? The impetus for the question is Justin Verlander, who’s pitching as well as he ever has, but is nearly 36. I can’t help but continually worry that the next start is going to be the one where the wheels come off. Is this rational?
Keith Law: It’s rational, but also a bit irrational in that you should appreciate what he is right now in the present. We all go into that great good night eventually.

Ron: Keith- The talk going around that the Twins are looking at Ross and DeRosa just has to be that, right? I mean come on. Some younger guy with some experience and an analytical approach and rapport with the young players is needed. I hope Falvey and Levine are thinking the latter and not the former. Geeesh!
Keith Law: Again, still don’t understand the fixation with guys who’ve never managed. You have at least 120 guys managing in full-season minor leagues every year. Not one of them is qualified to even interview ahead of two guys who talk real good but have never so much as run a coat check stand?

Chuck: What is the Orioles problem with developing pitchers?
Keith Law: They have a poor track record of keeping them healthy. Getting at the root cause of that would require knowledge and access I do not have, but if I were GM there it would be my first priority, because they have good arms on the way again.

Matthew: You mentioned that Garrett Hampson might not have enough power to be an MLB regular. Do you see Myles Straw in the same light?
Keith Law: I do.

andy: How close is Brendan Rodgers to being ready? Do you think he could take DJ Lemahieu’s job starting next year?
Keith Law: I do.

Skippy : Cardinals just announced bringing Wainwright back for 2019 and Mo’s statement seems to indicate it will be pretty heavy incentive laden. Seems like a solid move? When he came back and said he actually felt healthy his k/9 and BB/9 were great. Cardinals probably didn’t *need* to bring him back but a small risk type scenario?
Keith Law: Yeah, I’m good with that. Low money, I presume, good for the clubhouse, good for the fans, nice tip of the cap to a player who’s been with the org since his debut.

Harvey: Voter fraud goes both ways. The motor voter laws in CA led to thousands of illegals being registered to vote when they picked up their drivers licenses. Both parties try to cheat their way to victory.
Keith Law: That’s not true. Also, can you get the FOH with that bothsidesism? Right now, the Republican candidate for Governor in Georgia is personally obstructing over 50,000 new voter registrations to improve his odds of winning. That is the problem TODAY. Do not give me your fetid bullshit about something that might have happened a year ago somewhere else. We solve today’s problem today. You see another problem? Good. Put it on the fucking list.

David: Hi Keith, thanks for the chats! Is Muncy’s bat worth moving Bellinger (and his strong defense) off of first to play center? Max seems adequate over there, but just curious your thoughts on the trade-offs.
Keith Law: No. I’m betting the under on Muncy repeating this next year.

DraftNut: Would draft pick trading help prevent tanking or encourage it?
Keith Law: I think it’ll help prevent it.

Lyle: The biggest voter suppression of all is closed primaries. If the parties want to have closed primaries, they should pay for them themselves. Otherwise, taxpaying voters should be allowed to vote.
Keith Law: I agree with that.

Mikey: Any chance Jake Locker could come back and play or has it been too long?
Keith Law: He has expressed zero interest in returning to baseball.

Brett: What are your thoughts on Corbin Burnes’s future with the Brewers? Does he end up as a starter next year? Can he be a No. 2 guy in their rotation? Thanks, Keith!
Keith Law: Yes to both questions.

Jd: I saw on deadspin that nobody looked good (including the heckler) in the Osuna incident. It feels fair game to rip a guy for beating his wife but are their limits other than the obvious about using bad language at the ballpark?
Keith Law: I don’t see why that’s not fair game and agree on the language used (you can easily be surrounded by kids there).

Re: Trading Ender: I understand the reasoning, but it seems hard to make the case if they don’t have a valid replacement. Say they don’t resign Markakis or anyone in FA. Then in the summer Pache is ready. I would much rather have an OF of Acuña, Pache, Ender than Acuña, Pache, Preston Tucker/Duvall. It only makes sense to me if they for sure have a For sure everyday LF/RF
Keith Law: I feel good about Anthopoulos finding a short-term replacement for Markakis.

Boa T.: I take it you don’t respect those that believe in God when you refer to it as “fantasies”
Keith Law: I referred to creationism and intelligent design as fantasies, because they are. We know that evolution happened and continues to happen, because we see it, and we are surrounded by evidence supporting it. You can “take it” however you want, but you’re just being an idiot here.

Pei: What are your thoughts on the analyses that suggest framing is worth as much as 20 runs above/below average in a single season, and therefore much more valuable of a skill than blocking/throwing? (obviously still nebulous about game calling)
Keith Law: Seems entirely valid, although I dislike that this is seen as a skill, and not stealing strikes from incompetent or merely incapable umpires.

Brett: Melania Trump recently said that she is the “most bullied person in the world.” [cleans spit-out coffee of desk]. Thoughts on who would be number 2?
Keith Law: How many people referred to her predecessor as FLOTUS as a man, or a simian, or some other animal on a regular basis?

Grover: juul is an e-cigarette I belive
Keith Law: Thank you. I wouldn’t read an ad for that, at least.

Grover: Thoughts on the Dodgers front office legal troubles?
Keith Law: I don’t know anything more than you guys do from the SI report and now the Daily Beast report on them failing to report a sexual assault allegation to MLB, but … not great, Bob.

Grover: If a team owner asked to meet with you to discuss a front office position, and asked to meet at an Olive Garden, do you immediately remove your name from consideration?
Keith Law: That’s a huge red flag for me.

John: Do you think it would help with getting rid of mascots and offensive names if writers would stop using them and instead defer to the city? Seems like outta sight outta mind might help those that can’t grasp institutional racism…
Keith Law: Maybe. Then again, I haven’t referred to the team in Cleveland by name in over a decade, and it hasn’t made a bit of difference.

Brady: You’ve given credit to a few of the ‘no-experience’ managers noting they had a strong support system from the front office and analytics team. Do you think some of these front offices want a manager that they can control, ie) have a say in making lineups, who plays where, how to use the bullpen, etc.? I’m not saying that’s right, but is it easier to accomplish that with someone who’s not had control over all the on-field decision making before?
Keith Law: Why not both? Why not hire someone with the experience to make better battlefield decisions and who’s also happy to work with R&D before and between games?

Jackie: You want voter suppression? 3 million Puerto Ricans get zero senators, 35 million Californians get two senators, and 1.5 million Dakotans get four senators. That’s how you get Kavanaughed.
Keith Law: And 700,000 residents of Washington DC, almost half of them African-American, get zero voting representation in Congress. And I think we know why.

Pat D: My sister just gave birth to her fourth child, second son. He has an older brother who is not quite 2. When should I start getting them to play baseball?
Keith Law: You haven’t started yet?

DEF: Board game question for you: Our family loves to play games, but we’re having a hard time coming up with a game that the entire family can play: my 10 year-old is handling fairly complex games pretty easily, but my 7 year old is developmentally delayed – he’s tired of snakes and ladders and candyland and the like. Got any recommendations for something with a little bit of depth that is also pretty simple/straightforward?
Keith Law: More randomness tends to mean more skill levels can play. I don’t know where your 7-year-old might fall on the skill scale, but games I call low complexity or ‘gateway’ games might be perfect – Ticket to Ride is one that’s easy to learn, has some light strategy, but can still entertain adults and older kids.

Nelson: Do you drink flavored seltzer? And if so, are you worried about the report that came out on Lacroix and some of the ingredients it contains?
Keith Law: I don’t. I drink plain sparkling water. The report and lawsuit are basically just chemophobia in a nice suit, though.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I’m heading to Arizona next week and will be at games Monday through Friday, so I don’t know when the next chat will be, but I do expect to have at least two updates while I’m there for ESPN+ subscribers. Thank you all as always for reading and for all of your questions!

Keith Law: I’m at the wrong end of the looking glass. It’s Klawchat.

Patrick: Keith, anything specific you watch for when playoff time comes around?
Keith Law: Nope, I just watch the games for themselves.

Andy: Will the current trend of bullpening, especially in the playoffs, kill the lower to mid tier starting pitching market? Sure, he’ll be useful during the season, but if I’m not starting a Chase Anderson or Mike Fiers in the playoffs, is that worth 6 or 7 million a year?
Keith Law: Yeah, they’re still worth quite a bit more than that for the value they can provide over 160+ innings. If bullpenning affects that market it’ll be through arbitration, which is still substantially driven by the dumbest stats.

Dr. Bob: At the end of the Periscope chat yesterday, a chatter suggested Led Zeppelin’s “Over the Hills and Far Away.” Have you learned that one? As difficult as it sounds, it is remarkably simple. If you don’t know it, there are a couple of really good YouTube videos showing it.
Keith Law: I mentioned that song in my latest newsletter as my standard warmup – the opening to that is a great way to loosen up your fret hand & fingers before playing.

Moe Mentum: Who’s the odd man out in the Phillies infield next season if they land Machado?
Keith Law: I would think Franco.

Mike: “Openers” may be a clever was of describing this new approach, but it does little to enhance the fan experience. (It does, however, add another half-hour or so of air time for advertisers)
Keith Law: I would agree with that. What’s good for the team isn’t necessarily good for the product’s aesthetics.

Dan: Jomar Reyes had a good finish to 2018. Still a rising prospect for O’s?
Keith Law: No, that ship has probably sailed.

Nick: What is your opinion of Milwaukee going with a bullpen game in Game 1 of the NLDS? I know they’re trying to mitigate a weakness (starting pitching), but aren’t they running the risk of unnecessarily blowing out their bullpen? Why not throw a starter and just keep them on a short leash if they wind up in trouble?
Keith Law: Tend to agree with that, although their bullpen is so damn strong maybe it’s less of a concern?

Rob: Tony Santillan had a nice season for the Reds in the minor leagues this year. Do you believe that he is a top 100 prospect? Do you think that he could be more then a back of the rotation type of starter? Thank you for the chats.
Keith Law: Too much reliever risk to be a top 100 guy.

squeeze bunt: Is hitting suppressed in playoff baseball? Do teams put together more detailed plans to attack hitters with all their resources focused on one lineup?
Keith Law: Pitching tends to be better in October – you don’t see fifth starters or 8th relievers.

Trevor: Is there any precedence of the MLBPA winning a grievance that allowed a player from the Rule 4 Draft to become a FA like Stewart / Boras filed for?
Keith Law: Yes, Barrett Loux.

Gene: Keith, where do the Orioles go next? I was more a Showalter supported than a Duquette supporter, but now they are both gone and there doesn’t appear to be much left to rebuild around.
Keith Law: I’m very curious to see where they go; I thought Showalter had to go, but Duquette had to do that job with one hand tied behind his back, and there was a credible argument that he should stick around to get to fully execute his vision with a manager of his choice who wouldn’t work at cross purposes to his own. I can certainly think of a few names of GM candidates who’d be great fits.

squeeze bunt: Saw an interesting question on Twitter the other day, and thought you might have a good answer. Has there been a book that changed your opinion on something? I think it was implied that this was relating to political things, but answer however you please.
Keith Law: Tons. That’s one of the great pleasures of reading – it opens your mind.

Shaun: Is the AL group of playoff teams as good top to bottom as any recently? The Red Sox won 108 games and could arguably be an underdog in a series against any of the other 3 teams.
Keith Law: It does seem exceptionally strong, at the expense of any decent playoff races this year.

Darren: There have been big arguments among people I know regarding the 1 inning starters. I see the logical and understand why teams like Oakland and TB would attempt this strategy. Some are saying it’s a terrible ideas ruining baseball and point to last night as proof. My point is Oakland used the wrong guy. Hendriks isn’t even a very good reliever and was hot in the month of September when he’s not facing the lineup one would see in the playoffs. I would have seen Petit and Trivino getting trough 4 to 5 innings and then letting any one not named Rodney take over. Would love to hear some of your thoughts on the practice and Oaklands execution last night. Thanks for everything Keith.
Keith Law: I would agree with this – Hendriks was a weird choice, one I haven’t seen explained, but that doesn’t invalidate the strategy.

Ridley Kemp: Am I wrong for feeling like we’re on the verge of the total breakdown of our democratic system? I remember Watergate and this is so much more open and obviously corrupt that I feel like the checks and balances have utterly failed.
Keith Law: It certainly feels that way, with the party in power willing to overlook absolutely anything – sexual assault, perjury, propaganda, foreign interference, environmental destruction – to get what they want (tax cuts and banning abortion).

Fuzzy Dunlop: What’s your guilty pleasure food? Like restaurant or even just a processed food item that you genuinely enjoy but doesn’t fall in line with your generally awesome tastes.
Keith Law: I have no idea what you’re talking about. (munches on Oreos)

J5: Pick one that will be a an all star : Kelenic, Gorman or Liberatore?
Keith Law: Kelenic. BTW I forget to mention Vientos when reviewing the Mets’ farm system last week – another guy drafted by the current scouting department who looks very good so far.

Alex: Does Ryan Mountcastle have enough of an arm to stay at 3B? Does Grenier have enough of a bat to be a regular SS? Thanks
Keith Law: Probably not, probably yes, in that order.

Ian: Thoughts on the Let the Kids Play ad?
Keith Law: Much better than the previous campaign, Don’t Let the Kids Play.

Alex: Does Brady Anderson’s continued presence hinder the Os from getting a good GM candidate to consider taking the job?
Keith Law: One of the questions any candidate should ask in the interview is whether Anderson will report to the new GM or to ownership. The only acceptable answer is the former. The latter is a dealbreaker.

Daniel: Freddy Galvis is a divisive figure in San Diego. The pro crowd is calling for him to be resigned, while the anti crowd says save the 40 man spot on a farm hand that needs to be added and let Guerra play short for a few until Tatis is ready. What say you?
Keith Law: I’d let him walk. Nice player, not worth the 40-man spot for a team that is going to need all of those spots.

Kenny: Do you believe the Ramirez and Swetnick stories?
Keith Law: Yes. Women very rarely lie about sexual assaults. These women told those stories knowing they’d likely end up facing tremendous public criticism and likely death threats. Believing that they lied despite those consequences requires a deeply misogynistic worldview.

Ian: As a young male, I really don’t feel afraid that I am going to get falsely accused of sexually assaulting someone. Is this argument really more of a case where old men are afraid that something from their past is going to get brought up?
Keith Law: I think the “all men should fear this” is basically dog-whistling to men who hate women.

Aaron C.: One of the sillier “accomplishments” tweeted over and over again by fans and beat writers was the A’s 2018 payroll relative to the Yankees. Why is cheap ownership proudly trumpeted towards the heavens?
Keith Law: Because fans and the media continue to side with billionaire owners over players. Yes, it’s wonderful that the A’s front office did more with less. The fact that the team plays in the 8th largest media market in the country is somehow swept under the rug.

George: Thoughts on Pedro’s assertion that Severino was pitching hurt in the 2nd half?
Keith Law: Entirely possible.

james: Has your opinion changed at all on Joey Bart since the draft?
Keith Law: No, because there is no reason it should have.

mike sixel: Byron Buxton was pretty much dead last in wrc+ and any other hitting statistic you want. He can’t be that bad again….but how long do we have to wait?
Keith Law: Didn’t play much and wasn’t necessarily healthy when he did play.

Aaron C.: Big fan of your occasional cooking posts/photos. Curious about your greatest cooking failures, though. Seem to remember you once posting about an attempt to make something like a polenta waffle. Anything more disastrous than that?
Keith Law: I’ve had my share of mistakes. Pizza doughs that tore when I stretched them. Custards that curdled. I burned a simple kale/bacon dish a few years ago when working with a new-ish stove. The polenta on the waffle iron might have worked but I needed to grease the hell out of it first and didn’t.

Aaron C.: I know it’s not your favorite thing to write up, but can we still expect a “Top 50 free agents” piece from you after the World Series? Off-the-top-of-your-head guess at #3 on that list?
Keith Law: I will do a FA ranking, and if Kershaw opts out, it’s him, otherwise probably Corbin.

Zihuatanejo: What board games (if any) would you recommend for a couple where one is an experienced gamer who likes more complex games, while the other is a relative newbie who doesn’t like lots of rules?
Keith Law: Jaipur and Targi are great two-player games that hit the midpoint for a couple like yours.

Tony: If you were Theo, what moves would you make to improve the Cubs chances next year(outside of saying goodbye to Addison Russell)?
Keith Law: I’d definitely move on from Russell as soon as that’s possible. They have to figure out what their regular outfield is going to be, and balance defense (Almora, Heyward) against boosting an offense that wildly underperformed this year – and you can’t pin that all on Bryant getting hurt. The obvious answer is go sign Harper or Machado and figure the rest out, but there’s going to be competition for those two and the Cubs need a plan B. They also had a disastrous dip into free agency last winter (Chatwood, Morrow, Darvish), which may color their view of the process. The one thing I would definitely advocate if I were in the front office is finding a way to retain Hamels.

Jen: How much credit does Coppy deserve compared to AA for the Braves success this season
Keith Law: Anthopoulos has given Coppolella quite a bit of credit for the foundation he laid, and I think that’s very fair. The system was and still is loaded.

David: Hi Keith, Buehler’s been very impressive to date. As a Cards fan, does Flaherty have the same type of pure “stuff” and upside in your mind? If not, what makes Buehler stand out?
Keith Law: Buehler has way better shit. Flaherty has incredible command, and obviously has a better history of health.

Stan: And guesses as to the final round candidates for Mets GM? And if they were to go with a younger more progressive higher, who realistically could that be?
Keith Law: From what I could tell, they’ve barely contacted anybody. Why they’ve waited this long is anyone’s guess.

Sean: Do you think it’s safe to say managers sticking around for as long as Scioscia is going the way of the dodo bird?
Keith Law: Yes, and also, I can’t imagine anyone wanting to do that job for that long.

Guest: I wondered what your thoughts were about the Jays firing Gibbons. Seemed to me that players liked him and responded to him and that the change was arbitrary at best. Why the switcheroo?
Keith Law: I know he’s indicated this was his choice, and I have no knowledge to contradict that – but he also wasn’t Shapiro/Atkins’ hire, and that rarely ends well.

Guest: What should the Braves do with their RF & 3B for next year? Sigh a FA or use a combination of Camargo (who was a 3 WAR player this year in less than a full season) and Riley?
Keith Law: Camargo probably starts the year at 3b, with Riley in AAA, since he missed a lot of time there due to injury. Short-term RF option would make sense, but they have outfielders coming in the system. I don’t like the idea of moving Camargo or Riley to RF and wasting their defensive value.

Taylor: If you were running the Yankees this offseason, what do you do with Andujar, Voit, and Bird? All seem like 1B/DH guys.
Keith Law: Andujar is the one you keep of the three for sure; I also don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that he’ll move off 3b, as bad as he was this year. Voit and Bird are pure DHs for me.

Fun Police: Do you have any baseball-related memories as a child where you actually enjoyed the game, or were you always a stat-obsessed nerd that takes no enjoyment from what he does?
Keith Law: Sorry, I rolled my eyes back so hard at this that I detached a retina.

Xam: Kike Hernandez had an interesting second half, and really turned it up in August/September — more walks than strikeouts, ISO over .200, OPS, wRC+ around 165. Given his defensive versatility and the fact that he overcame his problem with righties this year as well, are we looking at a budding star?
Keith Law: Really solid player, and everyone seems to love him in the clubhouse, but I am not drawing that kind of conclusion off a two-month sample.

andy: Looks like Gray won’t start Game 1 for the Rockies. He might not start at all. Something’s clearly not working there. Do you think he needs a change of scenery? Do you see anything specifically wrong with him?
Keith Law: Pitching in Coors is hard, man. You can be totally fine and still struggle there because your fastball doesn’t move quite as much, or contact is just a little harder than it would be elsewhere. All the more credit to Kyle Freeland for the year he had. If the Rockies want to shop Gray, they shouldn’t sell him for less than 90 cents on that dollar, because there’s a good chance he becomes an above-average starter somewhere else, and there’s still some chance he does it in Denver.

Josh: Chances Cedric Mullins sticks as an average to above average everyday player?
Keith Law: I think average is his ceiling.

Bob: Other than Settlers, what non-traditional (so excluding Monopoly, Risk) board games are good to introduce new people to gaming?
Keith Law: Ticket to Ride, Carcassonne, Dominion but that is better if you have one player who knows it to help introduce the concept. Azul is a little heavier, but it was my #1 game of 2017 and is such a visually appealing game I think it’s a good gateway title anyway.

Xam: Are you buying Max Fried as a starter in 2019 and beyond? The combo of groundballs and strikeouts is pretty sexy.
Keith Law: I am. Always believed in his stuff and athleticism. Not sure Atlanta has a rotation spot for him.

Josh: Any thoughts on Isaac Paredes? He looked to have great seasons at A and AA at a young age
Keith Law: Can really hit. Not sure there’s long-term upside but the bat is real.

Ryan: Klaw, what do you think is more sought after GM job, Mets or O’s?
Keith Law: Mets’ job will be unless the Angeloses are clear about letting the new GM have the appropriate amount of autonomy.

Dr. Bob: One of my favorite Dodgers teams was 1977. Four players (Garvey, Smith, Cey, and Baker) each hit at least 30 HRs, which set a record. How quaint. The entire team hit 191 which was the team record at the time. This year’s team hit a team-record 235. It’s a different game.
Keith Law: Extremely. And that’s both positive and negative.

Evan: How should I feel about Leody Tavares? The game results don’t match the tools and the great reports re his batting practice showings. Is it time to scale back my expectations, or can he be a first division starter?
Keith Law: Still young and physically underdeveloped. I believe he’s a first division starter with upside.

Matt: If a relief pitcher gives up one or more runs but holds a lead, his WPA for the game can be negative. But if a 9th inning pitcher gives up one or more runs without blowing the game, his WPA is automatically positive. Do closers have inflated WPA?
Keith Law: I don’t really care for WPA, since it’s entirely situation-dependent. But to be honest I’m not sure I follow your second statement there about the ninth inning guy.

Norman Golan: whatever happened to Delvin Perez? The Cardinals got him after he tested positive for PEDs, and I recall the reaction was (1) bad on the Cardinals for rewarding PED use and (2) hewas a great talent for the cards to get so late in the 1st round. But since then its been crickets
Keith Law: He’s been kind of terrible in pro ball.

Cameron C: Vladdy Jr or Wander Franco, who are you most excited to see grow into Major League guy and who could be the better player. Wander put up better stats than Vlad did at the same age in the Appy league.
Keith Law: Vlad’s a lot closer, but I don’t think it’s absurd to think Wander might end up better.

Mike: Are you astonished that so many Republicans (and especially evangelicals) say Kavanaugh should be confirmed even if it’s determined that he did commit sexual assault? I mean, where is our basic human decency?
Keith Law: I’m not astonished any more. I’m disgusted, sure, but not astonished.

Mike D: Has there ever been a study on how much “experience” helps, or “youth” hurts a team in the playoffs? You always hear announcers talk about it, but not sure if its fact or just more “chemistry and “it factor” talk?
Keith Law: It’s bullshit. I feel like there was a study years ago about the ages of playoff rosters but I have no memory of who did it. You can also see how young most of the recent WS winning rosters were.

Zac: Tigers are expected to move forward with Grayson Greiner. What is his ceiling? below average starter?
Keith Law: Backup.

Anthony: You’ve been critical of hiring MLB managers with no prior experience. I’m curious what the process looks like for evaluating a minor-league manager. No one cares about wins and losses and player development is probably a reflection of the org as a whole, so how would you evaluate their success? Just interviewing players?
Keith Law: Your player development director & other staffers spend the year visiting affiliates, and reviewing game reports. They’ll talk to the managers, coaches, and players in the system. They should know which managers were able to execute the FO’s plans for each player, and understand organizational philosophies, and which managers did well working with players of differing backgrounds.

Mike: In a few chats, you have mentioned Alex Scherff as a guy to watch in the Red Sox system. What’s his ceiling if he can stick as a starter?
Keith Law: Sounds like #2 starter.

Anthony: What’s your take on Ramon Laureano? Buying him as a regular?
Keith Law: Loved him in the AFL two years ago but he’s not going to post a .388 BABIP going forward. Good tools that might make him a fringe regular, much more likely he’s a very good fourth OF.

Jake: Keith, obviously ranking prospects has some subjectivity to it, however on mlbpipeline’s most recent top 100 KC had one representative. Singer at 60. I find it strange that you could have him at that slot and Lee, Lynch and Kowar nowhere in the top 100. Your thoughts?
Keith Law: Lee is clearly a top 100 guy for me; Singer isn’t, but I’ve never been a big believer in him given the delivery and lack of a pitch for LHB. I think Lynch is better at this point. Kowar did not throw well this summer, so leaving him off is understandable and I doubt he’d make mine.

Grant: Thought Scooter Gennett would have made your column about “people you were wrong about” What’s your outlook for the rest of his career?
Keith Law: He’s never been much of anything vs LHP, which was my critique of him going back to the minors. I think he’s had one adequate year, which seems flukish. If this power is real – and he never showed it at all till he got to Cincinnati, but now has 50 HR in two seasons – he’s essentially the strong half of a superb platoon.

Scott: If you were the Phillies’ GM, and assuming that money is not a factor, what moves would you make to roster and/or coaching staff? Which players and/or coaches would you want to stay and let germinate?
Keith Law: People were killing Kapler here at the end of the season, booing him every trip to the mound, which is just so dumb. It was a bad defensive club and nothing he did was going to mitigate that. I’d like to see them move to upgrade their defense, while obviously using some of that war chest they’ve got to acquire some top flight talent in free agency. Pollock would be an interesting target. I already said I’m a big Corbin guy. He’d fit for just about any contender.

The Shrike: Over/under on the amount Carter Stewart will get if he’s declared a free agent and is not subject to any bonus pool restrictions?
Keith Law: If this wrist thing really isn’t a big deal for teams, I think he’ll get $6 million-plus.

Bill: Thanks for the chats Keith. They are easily in my top 7 shirking work activities. Do you think Dansby Swanson can still grow into an average to above average contributor at the plate?
Keith Law: I do, but he’s always going to strike out more than the typical player of his profile. That was the knock on his game in college, too.

Ed: Do you see pitching eventually adjusting to the obsession with launch angle, resulting in a higher concentration on pitchers with whatever attribute counteracts more loft in swings (be it a good high fastball, late lateral movement, or whatever)? And therefore creating a market again for more level swings / higher contact guys? I look at the Cubs this year, and it really struck me how they can destroy teams with their offense on one day and go completely inert the next (including 163 and the WC game) and I start thinking about what I wouldn’t give for someone who can just shorten his swing, put the bat on the ball, and work the count a bit.
Keith Law: I think it already has – that’s why you see teams trying to get guys who either live at the knees or can throw high-spin four-seamers at the top of the zone.

Mike: How far is Hiura away from taking the Brewers 2b job? Would you package him for a top of the rotation starter if you were in the Brewers situation?
Keith Law: If they feel like his defense is ready (and the elbow injury, whatever it was, is no longer a concern), then pretty much any time. I know scouts love his bat, but I feel like lingering concerns over the elbow would suppress his trade value.

Jimbo: Have you seen Luis Patino? How do you account for his ascendance into various Top 100s?
Keith Law: I have not. I don’t comment on other top 100s.

Cole: How soon do you think we could see Jo Adell up with the Angels? I’ve seen some people say they wouldn’t be surprised if he was up by the All Star Break next year, and I was wondering if you felt the same.
Keith Law: I think that’s very optimistic.

James: Hey Keith, I know you have opened up about Anxiety in the past. At what point, did you, or do you know it is a problem to go get help for it.
Keith Law: I had a brutal panic attack at age 39 while driving on Staten Island (insert joke about SI traffic here), and that really forced me to get help.

JR: Rockies tried piggbacking starters in ’12 or ’13 and were mocked for it (probably because it failed), while “openers” and “bullpen” games have, for the most part, have not been mocked (probably because it was successful). Perhaps the Rockies were on too something and just didn’t have the right arms or quite the right approach to make it work?
Keith Law: They had a decent idea but executed it poorly.

Rum Guy: Enjoying the Periscope sessions, This Boomer needs a new acoustic or maybe electro acoustic for playing here at home and so KLaw, what guitar models do u have?
Keith Law: Very simple – a Mitchell acoustic, a Stratocaster electric.

Mac: In this age of awful catchers can Zack Collins be league average?
Keith Law: My bet is no.

JP: would you start Devers at 3B regardless of whether starter is RH or LH? Nunez has similar defensive deficiencies without any of the pop/patience.
Keith Law: I would, yes. Devers’ eye is pretty good for his age.

JT: How has Shapiro done in Toronto? I’ll confess that I’m a little underwhelmed if that’s a word.
Keith Law: I think that’s fair, and it’s why he doth protest too much over my comment that they don’t have a top 5 farm system (note: still accurate). I’ve heard some stories from within the regime that don’t give me great confidence in their model going forward. I’ve also heard that there’s friction between him and Rogers which, if true, would be rather astounding since Rogers’ decision to hire him cost them Anthopoulos.

Ron: Do you think Mauer retires? It looks like it. Will really miss him. But he hasn’t been the same since the concussion. Some in Twins Land still don’t realize what they had. At least in his catching days one of the best around. Should have had 2 MVPs. Borderline HOF?
Keith Law: Sounds like he’s retiring, don’t think he gets into the Hall as his case is solid but not a slam dunk and relies heavily on advanced stats.

Kace: Isn’t it odd that someone would come here to troll you? That’s a lot of effort beyond being pissed off at an article and finding your Twitter.
Keith Law: Same couple of trolls every week, too. I have no idea what their end game is.

Jake: Are you a Doctor Who viewer? If so, thoughts on a woman getting a crack at the role? Looking forward to Sunday.
Keith Law: Actually never seen it, which is such a shame because I couldn’t fill my diaper over a fictional non-human character taking on a female form.

Chris: Are you still buying Franklin Barreto? It’s obvious he’s got some interesting tools in the tool kit, but the lack of contact really scares me. His bat-to-ball skills have definitely gone backwards since he was a younger prospect.
Keith Law: No, I’m out on that one.

Chris: Seems you were right about Newcomb and the Simmons trade. What are your thoughts on it now that it’s played out a little.
Keith Law: I think Simmons is the best defender in baseball, among the best we have ever seen, and Atlanta didn’t get nearly enough in that deal.

Chris: It all worked out, but I thought Boone’s handling of the 5th was bizarre. First, he sent Sevy back out even though he clearly emptied the tank vs Semien, and then, he went to the one guy in the pen who seems least equipped to enter with a jam. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I can’t be too hard on Boone for sending Severino out with a 0 still in the hits column. It would have been the right move to pull him, but between that and the low pitch count, it would have been extremely unusual.

Sean: Do you care about parity in the playoffs or do you just want the best teams to make it each year even if they are the same 8 teams year after year?
Keith Law: Best teams = best baseball. Baseball has parity in the NL right now, just not in the AL at the moment.

Joe: Is Jon Schoop a nontender candidate? Probably looking at over 10MM+ for his last year of arbitration and he had a brutal year.
Keith Law: Brutal year, much better a year ago, maybe not a fit for Milwaukee because of Hiura but not without trade value.

Zac: If I told you Casey Mize was the only Tigers pitching prospect that panned out, would you be shocked?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t be shocked, but I think Burrows has a pretty high floor too.

JR: Is Adam Sasser a potential draft pick? Assuming he is (or even if he’s not, assume he is for this question), if you worked in a front office how would you view him given he was kicked off his college team for using a racial slur. Would you completely remove him from your board or be willing to consider him?
Keith Law: He was draft-eligible in June but not selected. I would probably avoid him because he’d have to come play with many people of color, but I wouldn’t consider him untouchable like the child molester from Oregon State, or a player who’d committed sexual or physical assault on a woman.

Xam: Austin Barnes: what happened, and what should we expect going forward? Last year he looked like a top-3 catcher, and now….
Keith Law: He was never a top 3 catcher, though. Small samples.

Josh: Jazz Chisholm had a pretty strong year. What kind of ceiling do you project for him?
Keith Law: Very excited to see him in two weeks. Above-average regular to star upside.

Ben: Can you explain why “high spin” matters? Like, why not look for Ps who can throw high velocity pitches at the top of the zone?
Keith Law: High spin rate = less/inferior quality contact. High velocity doesn’t do that.

JR: Have you ever asked yourself a question using a pseudonym in a chat because there was a particular question they you wanted to answer?
Keith Law: I haven’t, but that would be kind of funny, if a little dishonest.

JG: Giardi, Bannister, David Ross, Alomor Jr., or Ausmus for Twins manager?
Keith Law: Ross has never managed, so I can’t support that. Ausmus never grew at all as a manager in Detroit, so would you really hire him unless you felt absolutely certain that in just one year off the job he’s changed his managing philosophy? Girardi was pretty solid in NY and I think he’d be a good hire for a lot of situations.

Corey: 5 minutes in one of these chats will provide the core of the KLAW worldview. If you’re offended by that POV but still choose to come to his personal site to troll him + generally be a f’ing asshole, you might want to examine your own life choices + ask yourself why you’re such a miserable person. Anyway… should Swihart be starting at C given that Leon + Vasquez can’t hit or stick with the PH strategy for later in the game ?
Keith Law: Agreed, and thank you. I’m a big Swihart fan and perhaps not totally objective on that one, but I think he’s the best option.

Tom: Thoughts on Mike Bordick as the O’s manager?
Keith Law: Nice guy … with no experience.

Jennyfer: If you were running a front office, I know you wouldn’t sign an abuser. I agree with that. How would you handle someone like Murphy or Turner who have said awful things, but haven’t broken the law?
Keith Law: Turner’s apology was an example of how to handle those situations well, with grace and understanding, so that you can go back into a diverse clubhouse and continue to have good relationships with teammates and coaches. Murphy, to my knowledge, has done none of that, and also does a great impression of Stonehenge in the field.

Eric: Dont hold back because he passed away: how do you feel about John McCain?
Keith Law: The thing that always comes to my mind around McCain is that he used professional sports – including MLB – in a circus hearing on PEDs that served no purpose but to promote himself. There was absolutely no reason for Congress to hold hearings on the topic or threaten to regulate this area in private, professional sports leagues. MLB is still dealing with the fallout from that. That isn’t the total of the man’s career, of course, but I will forever associate him with those hearings.

Jake: Would you ever want to interview Trump, if only to find out why he is the way he is?
Keith Law: I think that would be an incredibly frustrating experience.

Rowdy T: do you basically ignore September results for call ups (or everyone for that matter) due to the expanded rosters and teams playing out the string..
Keith Law: Yes.

Joe Don : I gathered last week that the Banister firing had a sour taste for you. Nonetheless, what qualifications do you think the Rangers need to consider in their new guy?
Keith Law: There’s something about that we don’t know – there were stories in Dallas area papers that he wasn’t communicating well with players, and I don’t know any more than you do about that, but if it’s true it’s certainly a problem that requires action from up top. That’s a developmental situation and a long-term rebuild, so I’d want someone with some real player development experience and willingness to work with young players.
Keith Law: Nobody asked for playoff predictions here, but at least one person did on Twitter and I feel like I have to give them somewhere, so here goes: Brewers in 4, Dodgers in 4, Cleveland in 4, Boston in 5. Bear in mind I rarely do much better than 50% on playoff picks, but there you have it.
Keith Law: And that’s all for this week – thank you all so much for your questions, including the haters, who appear to think I fell off the back of a turnip truck. I’ll be back next week for a chat prior to my AFL trip the week after. Enjoy this last full weekend of baseball!

My annual awards picks and ballots for the six major player awards (MVP, Cy, ROY) are up now for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: Like a crown of thorns, it’s all who you know. It’s Klawchat.

Aaron G: No question, just that tHe mVp cAn’T CoMe FrOm A lOsInG tEaM oR bE a PiTcHeR!!!!!!!

(Even though objectively deGrom was the best player in the NL this season.)
Keith Law: Getting that a lot today, which shows that there is a segment of the fan base that hasn’t matured intellectually since the late ’90s.

Arnold: Poor contract decisions, poor trades, and poor draft picks have cost Bobby Evans and Brian Sabean their positions in the Giants’ hierarchy. Who should the Giants be looking at to take their place?
Keith Law: I think it’s fair to say they should look outside; many of the names you’re hearing for the Mets, like Porter, Lacava, Heck, Elias, should all be on the Giants’ list. I argued on the BBTN pod today that they really need to explore trading Bumgarner, as it’s the fastest way to reboot the farm system, and the odds that Bumgarner is still healthy and effective the next time the Giants are good – in an extremely competitive division – are very slim.

Fangraphs Frank: Will we ever have pre-2002 advanced statistics (i.e. UZR) on sites like Fangraphs? I want to compare Ozzie Smith to the greatest defensive shortstop of all time — ANDRELTON SIMMONS!
Keith Law: We don’t have the raw data for that.

addoeh: Is this the right room for an argument?
Keith Law: I’ve told you once.

Darren: Thoughts on Garrett Hampson and Ryan Vilade. Both were top 10 Rox prospects and had good seasons. They didn’t show much in game power but the strike zone judgement and swing looked good. Are you as concerned when scouting minor league power with the change in the MLB and MiLB baseballs. Many guys are showing power when they get to the majors. I agree Vilade defense will not keep him at SS, do you expect 3B, 2B, or OF to be his final spot?
Keith Law: I don’t think Hampson has enough power to profile as a regular – never mind HR power, but ability to make hard enough contact to sustain the walk rate (that is, why wouldn’t pitchers attack him inside given the lack of hand strength). Vilade will, I think. 3b likely, a regular or more.

Pizza: What was the worst pizza you’ve ever had, and why was it the worst?
Keith Law: Tough call between Papa John’s or Domino’s. The whole cardboard taste is tough to get past.

Jo-Nathan: Do you like what the Brewers have done with Corbin Burnes, or would you rather have seen him come up as a starter?
Keith Law: I like seeing future starters break in as relievers, in general, as long as they’re handled appropriately given that they’ve never been used back-to-back days before. Counsell’s been doing that more with Burnes – twice in the last three weeks – and that’s where I diverge with the Brewers’ plans for him.

Jon: Buying stock in Tyler Glasnow? He has a 4.11 ERA and over a K/inning since joining the Rays. If you take away the one bad start it’s a 2.90 ERA in 50 innings. Take away his best outing after that and it’s still a 3.30. Looks like he’s more calm and relaxed since going to Tampa.
Keith Law: Need to see a lot more than a good month-plus from a guy with that much history of poor performance.

Evan: Am I wrong to think Baez is closer to Trevor Story in MVP voting than Yelich? I get the positional flexibility but that OBP is not MVP-level. Yelich has 68 points on him! (almost nice)
Keith Law: The OBP isn’t, but Baez plays average or better defense at shortstop, and gets a huge boost to any stat that compares him to R-level as a result.

Mike: Do you think the accusations against Kavanaugh are sufficient grounds for his nomination to be voted down? And do any Republicans have the guts to do so?
Keith Law: They are – but frankly there was sufficient grounds beforehand and nobody cared.

Thad: Is Jameson Taillon a GUY? Dude’s been electric.
Keith Law: He is. My breakouts column this year was very much a mixed bag but I’m glad I had Taillon and Snell on it, at least.

Sean: If the Mets gave Dom Smith 550 AB at 1B next season, over/under on: .262/.346/.459
Keith Law: Over. I don’t think they’ll give him that, though.

Victoria: Biggest disappointment this year – Kingery, Bell, Mazara, Margot? Some belief in these guys heading into next season?
Keith Law: I’m most disappointed in Mazara – he looked great in March, lot of talk around AZ about his approach improving, then performed accordingly in April and May, but has totally regressed since then. .218/.279/.403 in the second half. Still young, but that’s now three full seasons of essentially the same thing.

Nate: I’m going to go out on a limb, and say that Mike Trout will get zero first place votes for MVP this year. Does this make you much smarter than everyone else, or out of touch?
Keith Law: I think he’ll get a few, and I think you’ve nicely demonstrated the concept of the false dichotomy.

Jeff: Ian Anderson best upstate NY prospect since…? Corbin ever that high? Jason Grilli?
Keith Law: Highest I can remember.

Jackie: I’m guessing the Red Sox let Craig Kimbrel hit the FA market this winter — gotta save money for Mookie, Sale, et al. What kind of contract do you think Kimbrel gets? I feel like Kimbrel might be in for a bit of a surprise; he probably won’t get the Aroldis Chapman 5 year/$86 million deal, or close to it.
Keith Law: I don’t think the market is going to support paying closers that kind of money now. Could be wrong, just seems like more teams have wised up about overpaying for the save stat, but are just generally focused on getting guys who miss bats for late-inning work, spending the same or more money in total but spreading it over more guys (including pitchers without saves).

Rob D: My friends and I unwittingly planned our Arizona Fall League trip the same week as the stupid skills competition. Are there any other baseball options on Saturdays like instructional league games? How does one access that stuff?
Keith Law: The skills competition is the single worst thing about the AFL and I wish they’d either cancel it completely or do what they did last year and schedule it before the season starts. It is totally fan-unfriendly to shorten the first week to four days. I think instructs are done by then. I’m not going till the second week for this exact reason.

Joe Don: Any thoughts you’d care to share on the Jeff Banister firing?
Keith Law: Nope.

dhakadabay: The Brewers have used a model for Corbin Burnes’ rookie season that you’ve espoused in the past–mostly middle relief, gradually increasing the leverage of the situations over the course of the season–and it seems to have paid off. What’s his upside as a starter going forward?
Keith Law: I think he’s a 3, chance to be a 2 if the command is better than we thought.

silvpak: urias has looked shockingly good in his brief appearances since returning (41 pitches, 31 for strikes, touched ~97[!] in his last appearance). he has no place on the postseason roster, imho (assuming they make it), but any thoughts on the early returns, more from a health/ability perspective than any stats?
Keith Law: I have no idea what’s going on in his shoulder, so no, sorry.

Dr. Andrews: With Morton suffering from the dreaded “shoulder stiffness,” is the Verlander-Cole-Keuchel combo plus a multi-headed super reliever (McCullers?) going to be enough to make it out of the AL?
Keith Law: I think so.

Darren: As a vegetarian I am thankful for all the other options today to help the average person find delicious healthy food. Have you tried the Impossible burger or Beyond Meat burgers? Those two are so far ahead of all other veggie burgers on the market. The impossible meatballs and beyond meat sausages are also great products.
Keith Law: I’ve had the Beyond burgers and was very impressed. They’re meat-like enough that I would say they’re a good substitute (granted, I don’t eat beef any more, but have had it hundreds of times). My only complaint is that their burgers are pre-formed and quite small for a single portion.

JJ: Unless Chris Sale pitches this weekend, he won’t have enough IP to qualify for the ERA title. Should a starting pitcher who throws fewer than 162 total innings in a season be a viable Cy Young candidate (I’d give it to Snell, regardless)?
Keith Law: If he’d pitched well enough, sure – 150 innings of a 1.50 ERA/FIP would probably do it. Verlander is my pick though.

James: I was watching a game on TV and the scroll along the bottom said that Bryce Harper just had his first 100 rbi season. I had to look it up. Dumb question and not some jerk question, what makes him a $300 million dollar player? 2015 was a great year for him but he hasn’t achieved that again in the three years after. Is it ok to say he Is going to be in the 2-4 WAR range per year with maybe a great year mixed in?
Keith Law: RBI are a terrible, useless measure of individual performance. He was worth about 5 WAR last year, and was only below 4 WAR this year because of poor defensive metrics, some of which came from playing out of position in CF. He’s shown himself to be a star hitter when healthy, but has had at least two years wrecked by injuries. The upside is clearly there, though.

Nate: Where do the Orioles go from here? I look at that roster, and I see nobody with any trade value at all. So it will probably be a quiet off-season. Do Orioles fans just sit back, and hope the O’s draft well for the next three years, and tune back in around 2021?
Keith Law: Hope they draft well and do more internationally (after years of avoiding the market) and change up their development processes for pitchers (of which Buck was a part) and find some value on the scrap heap. It’s a long road back to respectability. I have no objection at all to Duquette getting an extension – the reality is he’s done that job with one hand tied behind his back for years – but has any GM kept his job after a 110 loss season before? I guess Dombrowski sort of counts in Detroit, but that thing was on fire when he sat down on it.

Moe Mentum: Favorite rock drummer of all time?
Keith Law: Always was a fan of Barrett Martin of the Screaming Trees, Tuatara, and a bunch of other acts.

Moe Mentum: Besides Italy, which European country do you (or would you) most enjoy visiting?
Keith Law: I’d love to go east – seeing Dubrovnik and the Dalmatian coast of Croatia is a bucket-list item for me, as is spending time in Amsterdam.

Dante: If you were Klentak, would you sign Machado or Harper, assuming the price is readonable enough on either one?
Keith Law: I’d sign either one; I think Machado is the clearer upgrade for them.

Owen: Is Logan Shore a guy?
Keith Law: Back-end starter, maybe.

Kyle KS: How do the Angels get the most value out of Ohtani moving forward? Full starter’s workload and fill in DH ABs, Full time OF with ~600 ABs or a mix of both like they perused this season?
Keith Law: Well he’s not pitching next year, but if we’re talking 2020 and beyond, I would aim to use him as much as a starter as his arm health allows, and mix in part time DH at bats like this year.

mark: Hi Klaw,
Last week you responded to a question about Mejia and Hedges by saying “Hedges is just not a good enough hitter to push Mejia off to another position”… but is he a good enough defender to at least make the Pads attempt to convert Mejia into a guy who plays multiple positions (OF/C/3B) during the season? If not, should they just trade Hedges now?
Keith Law: Sorry, implicit in my response was that Hedges’ defense, while good, isn’t enough to mitigate how bad his bat is.

Joe Cleveland: I have heard great things about Brayan Rocchio. Is he a candidate for the back end of your top 100 list?
Keith Law: A candidate, no real idea what the back of my list will look like until I start working on it in earnest.

JD: If you were the new GM of the Giants, would you trade Bumgarner during the Winter Meetings or at the deadline? And what type of package would you expect to get?
Keith Law: You’ll always get more of a market in the winter, when just about every team has room in its budget to add a major piece, than in July, when only a handful of teams do.

Skip: True or False: The hearing today isn’t going to change the mind of one single person with regard to whether they think Judge Kavanaugh should be confirmed.
Keith Law: True. I think it’s all theater, personally.

Joe: Fair to be a bit disappointed in Gleyber’s season? His approach has been quite poor at times and he has struck out a lot.
Keith Law: Not fair. He’s a kid who was in A-ball two years ago.

squeeze bunt: bold to hold a chat considering what’s going on. Small chatrrom today?
Keith Law: Nope, seems jammed as usual.

Jerry: Should Keuchel and Marwin get qualifying offers? What’s the negative for the Astros if they do give them?
Keith Law: Keuchel yes, Marwin no.

Mark: Do you see the improvement from Zack Wheeler this year as sustainable ?
Keith Law: If he’s able to stay healthy, and maintain this kind of workload, yes.

squeeze bunt: Have you started any draft coverage for next year? Any thoughts on the class after the summer showcases?
Keith Law: I won’t rank guys probably until February, but every single scout or exec I’ve talked to agrees that the class is very down. The college crop is especially poor.

Jax: Will Basabe get consideration for being in your top 100?
Keith Law: The question doesn’t really mean anything – I’ll consider 150-200 players from the start and work down from there.

Anne: Please hold forth on the extreme overshift. Good or bad?
Keith Law: Good as long as it works. Bad when any player starts trying to hit against it.

Dr. Bob: You may have muted him, but the guy who was asking about deGrom’s value was sincerely asking about value. His brusqueness masked that. I think I was able to convince him.
Keith Law: Not sure who that was, but I’m surprised to hear someone changed their mind via a Twitter discussion.

Manuel: What you tell us about Vidal Brujan’s plate discipline? Walk-rate looks awesome, reports say he’s a free swinger.
Keith Law: Not a free swinger, certainly.

James: I’m on a Euro-trip right now seeing: Copenhagen, Stockholm, Lithuania, Prague, Warsaw, Budapest and Dublin. Have you been to any of these places ? Can you rank ?
Keith Law: Been to Dublin, Budapest, Stockholm. Loved them all. Budapest was the most striking visually and the food was the most different. Stockholm was the best for just walking around.

MATT K: Thoughts on Michael King and his performance this season?
Keith Law: He was in my minor league players of the year piece.

section 34: How are you able to chat with these hearings going on? I can only type this during a break.
Keith Law: Why in God’s name would I watch that shit? A bunch of old white men interrogating a rape victim like she’s a damn criminal? Insinuating that she made this story up, subjecting herself and her family to doxing, relentless press coverage, and death threats? And all of this so they can vote as they were going to the entire time? Really? I have more self-respect than that.

carson: Going forward, would you rather have Benintendi or Moncada?
Keith Law: Benintendi. That’s always been my answer – I said Moncada would have trouble with contact and he has.

Joshua: Love Andrew Wood…..that is all. Please continue.
Keith Law: It’s pointless speculation but I think he would have become a superstar between his lyrics and his personality on stage.

Stephen: So can Mondesi be a star?
Keith Law: Not with a 3% walk rate and fringy power.

Mike: What do you think of NSNG diets?
Keith Law: I don’t see the point of eliminating any specific item or ingredient from your diet for non-medical reasons – sugar is bad for you in moderate to large quantities, but in small quantities, it’s fine. Eliminating grains is probably a terrible idea.

Jax: Fried has to be trade bait this winter right?
Keith Law: I think he’s in the mix of starters they’ll peddle because they can’t keep them all, between a 40-man crunch and the fact that they only have so many starts to hand out next year.

Jerry: I’m almost the exact same age as Kavanaugh. I didn’t go to an elite prep school but there were a lot of rich (almost all white) boys at my HS who thought they could do whatever they wanted with no consequences. Why is it so hard for other (mostly white men) to comprehend and accept this?
Keith Law: I have no idea, especially with copious data on the prevalence of such behavior among American teenagers.

Jesse: Your insinuation that Hawk is a racist was a cowardly act intended to raise your own profile. You should be ashamed of yourself and
Keith Law: I quoted Harrelson. If his own words make him sound like a racist, well, quack quack, motherfucker.

Monty: Do you think Kris Bryant gets back to his normal self this season or is it too late?
Keith Law: He hasn’t looked completely healthy since he came back (and just got hurt again on an HBP the other night). I have no idea at what point he’ll feel close to 100%, but he doesn’t look it right now.

kbrown: What is your preferred stat when looking at offensive contribution? I like OPS+ but lots of smart people I know put more stock in wRC+. Why would one be better than the other?
Keith Law: I think wRC+ weights the components better.

Matt: Who is mostly to blame for the Dodger’s failure this season? Friedman? Roberts? Players?
Keith Law: They did lose their best player to injury pretty early on. If they have Seager, they’re probably 2-3 games better, and in first place, and then there isn’t a question.

A Reds Fan in Search of Hope: Trammell had a really nice first half followed by a pretty ordinary second with more Ks and lower power numbers. Any reason to think he wont reach that above avg regular/occasional all-star?
Keith Law: I’m not terribly worried. High IQ player with a good mix of skills and tools, including bat speed.

Anthony: What did you make of Lucchesi’s season? Any reason to think his weird repertoire can work long-term as a starter?
Keith Law: Back-end starter. Dude repeats his delivery like a machine. That’ll make it tough for hitters even seeing him twice through.

Mac: Do you think Maikel Franco would be a good change of scenery target?
Keith Law: Yes. His year has been better than the WAR would imply – he’s had some better results at the plate, and the guy is strong AF, so if he just continues to make better decisions at the plate, he’s going to accidentally slug .480 or so.

Jack: Genuinely curious to hear your opinion on the deadspin Jace Fry story: It’s obvious that Addison Russell should be disciplined for his actions, but where would you land on MLB discipline for somebody like Fry, whose transgressions seem to be constantly cheating on his wife and potentially giving her an STD from it?
Keith Law: Giving someone an STD intentionally or recklessly is a crime in some states. If he’s committed such a crime, then MLB *might* have cause to act, but I also think the union would argue it’s not covered anywhere in existing policies like domestic violence is.

Erin: Nats should let Harper walk, and play a Soto-Robles-Eaton OF next year right? (Then use the savings to lock up Rendon long term and address pitching, 2b, and C? )
Keith Law: I think that’s the right strategy – they can better use that money to fill other spots because the difference between Harper and Robles next year will not be as much as Harper will cost in free agency.

Jim: You play guitar exactly the way I would expect a baseball writer to play.
Keith Law: I’m sure I play it better than you do, sparky.

Josh: Hi Keith, can you give me your quick thoughts on DBax Blaze Alexander, Kristian Robinson and Geraldo Perdomo? Are they good prospects?
Keith Law: Robinson certainly is. Alexander is very TBD for me – great summer after a lot of spring reports that he couldn’t hit.

Mac: Do you think Quinn Priester will be on your spring hit list?
Keith Law: On my long list, so to speak, yes. Depends on lots of things like weather and how well these kids play when their seasons start (and thus if scouts tell me I do/don’t have to see someone).

Jim: Maybe if you cut back on the pizza you wouldn’t be a bloated fat loser.
Keith Law: Yeah, I’m many things, short among them, perhaps a loser, but fat I am not.

Monty: Do you think America is the greatest country in the world? I’ve been raised with all of that rah rah stuff and yes we have so many great qualities, but from guns to medicine to academics to the shit show in DC, so much logical evidence says no.
Keith Law: I’ve never believed that, nor do I believe it is important or patriotic to believe it. I’d rather see the country for what it is, good and bad, and advocate for change where I think it’s needed.

Guest: Always been a big fan of Gibby. What are the chances he lands another manager job in the MLB? Is Texas a realistic possibility?
Keith Law: He was a good tactical manager and handler of players, and if he was forced out – I haven’t heard anything on that situation – that’s not great, Bob. I’d love to see him get another chance but I don’t know if that’s realistic.

Ridley Kemp: If you didn’t see the thread on the official Steak-umm twitter account last night, it’s worth checking out. Also, we live in really strange times when the Steak-umm twitter account is a source of empathy and hard truths.
Keith Law: It was tremendous. At first I was wondering if they were hacked but I guess they just do real talk on their feed.

JT: Has their ever been a year during which Trout wasn’t the deserving, rightful AL MVP? Can you think of another baseball player whose career was similar–even A-Rod wasn’t clearly the MVP every single year, right?
Keith Law: Bonds had that stretch – I know, I know – where no one could touch him, but he wasn’t that way every year from the start of his career.

Scott: Sale was productive last night despite a severe down-tick in velo (also, it was against the Orioles, so large grain of salt). Can that work in the playoffs, or do the Sox need to be sit him for fear of injury?
Keith Law: You have to start him, right? Their odds of advancing are higher if he starts once per series.

JR: Wasn’t Addison Russell already previously suspended for domestic violence? Are these new allegations or is his ex-wife just sharing new details about past abuse? Either way, can he just be DFA’d and go away?
Keith Law: He was never suspended the first time, and the investigation was still open, pending his ex-wife talking to MLB and perhaps additional information.

John: Biggest self own so far is Hatch calling Dr. Ford attractive in a press gaggle. Bets on “What were you wearing?” as a question if he hadn’t surrendered his time to Mitchell?
Keith Law: Calling a rape or sexual assault victim “attractive” is perfectly fine if in your head it’s still 1947.

James: Pollock and Corbin are now free agents so I think the Dbacks should trade Goldy and start the rebuild. What you say Klaw ?
Keith Law: Are they really non-competitive without those two? The division is tough but I don’t think they’re out of it without Pollock. Corbin is the bigger loss. If they do rebuild, Greinke is the first name I’d trade. But I’m not giving up on them even if they lose both free agents. Core is still good enough to make them a 90-win team.

Frank: I know you’re a big fan of board games but do you play any computer games? If so, have you played Out of the Park Baseball (a management sim)?
Keith Law: Very few computer games, just because of time. OotP is excellent but way too time-consuming for me.

Joe: If you’re the Braves: Newcomb or Teheran for game 4? Do you just go with one of them and have Touki ready to go at a moments notice?
Keith Law: Or start Touki and expect him to go twice through the order.

Jax: So Conforto’s been on a terror the past several weeks. He should have a big 2019, no?
Keith Law: I hope so. Love watching him hit, been a big believer in him since the Mets took him.

Mick: Thoughts Kyle Wright vs Gore?
Keith Law: Mackenzie Gore? Better in just about every respect other than FB velocity.

addoeh: There were many reasons to reject Gorsuch’s SC confirmation, but none of them were due to a history of sexual assault like for Kavanaugh. So these fears that anyone and everyone will start to make them up going forward are way overblown.
Keith Law: Right – look at how many people with questionable or minority views on topics sailed through the Senate under this Administration without four women coming out and accusing them of sex crimes.

AGirlHasNoName: I know this is wrong, but I am not angry with you about not having Baez as your MVP. I don’t think you hate the Cubs. I can see why DeGrom has been better. I hope it’s ok that I still think Javy is more fun to root for than anyone and as such I am giving him my fake vote for MFP, an award MLB desperately needs more qualified candidates to compete for.
Keith Law: I’ve said that Baez is my favorite player to watch right now, so no, nothing wrong with that. The tagging, the swagger, the pop-up slide, the enthusiasm – give me 25 more of him across baseball. And let’s stop trying to beat that energy and willingness to display it out of players while they’re young.

Andrew: Should I still be optimistic heading into the offseason that Josh Bell is the immediate answer at 1B for the Pirates?
Keith Law: I’ve asked this question before but don’t have an answer: Why do the Pirates’ young hitters not hit for power in games? Just about every one of their recent hitting prospects back to Polanco’s arrival has hit for less power in the majors than expected in an era where even guys without much power hit 11-20 homers and guys who might have had average raw hit 30+. Bad luck? Coincidence? Are they pushing contact over loft?

Chris: I’m getting really excited about Touki Toussaint after watching him pitch a few times. Walks are high, yeah, but his stuff is unreal. Any reason for me to tap the brakes on my Touki hype train?
Keith Law: Nah, he’s super athletic and his delivery works, so I believe he’ll continue to improve his control and command in a way that I didn’t (don’t) believe Newcomb will.

Doug: I know the draft class is not good, but should I still root for the Padres to be swept so they can try for the 3rd pick?
Keith Law: More money is always better in this draft system.

Mike: What’s the best BlueJays can hope from David Paulino?
Keith Law: High-end reliever. Not sure he gets to that.

Chris: Now that he’s lined up to pitch Sun (and not the WC game), would Sevy be the first guy out of the pen in the WC if it’s before 5th inn, knowing that means neither he nor the starter could pitch until Game 3 of ALDS?
Keith Law: Yeah, because you have to win that game, but it really hurts them in the DS if they have to do it.

Patrick: As a person who lives with anxiety, does it drive you nuts when a sufferer is questioned as to why they aren’t ALWAYS anxiety laden?
Keith Law: People who don’t have anxiety are welcome to ask me about it. They are not welcome to tell me how I should feel, or ask why I don’t do X given that I have it, or to mock it when they wouldn’t mock someone with diabetes or MS or another medical condition.

David: To me, the most disappointing aspect of the Brett Kavanaugh fiasco, is that people are fighting for the win, rather than fighting to find out the truth.
Keith Law: I’d like to agree, but 1) discerning truth beyond a reasonable doubt for something that happened 30 years ago is difficult if not impossible, and 2) the relevant base rate here is that false reports of sexual assault are extremely rare. We probably know the truth. 51 Senators just don’t like it.

Todd: Has Severino regressed due to a lack of confidence in Sanchez catching? Or is it more than that?
Keith Law: He hasn’t looked right to me at all in the second half. Fastball command way down. Fastball and slider both a little worse.

Scott: Learn anything new on the guitar lately? I was impressed with your periscope performance.
Keith Law: Thank you. I try to do a new song or two a day. Chloe Dancer/Crown of Thorns was one from earlier this week (it’s just a few chords, the intro is the only tricky part) so I made it my intro quote.

Tony O: Everyone is looking for the latest market inefficiency. First it was D and OBP and lately fly ball hitters. Could high contact, low launch angle hitters be the next trend, along with fast position versatile players?
Keith Law: I believe teams have already explored that to some extent. If your speed/athleticism isn’t elite, though, it’s probably not enough of an efficiency – unless MLB changes the baseball and tweaks the strike zone.

Owen: Hi, Keith! If you are the Nationals and legitimately interested in keeping Bryce Harper (it’s hard to tell, but I think they are?), do you help relieve the glut of outfielders by using either Harper or Soto (preferably the latter as he is the worse fielder) as your first baseman next year against tough righties and during the inevitable Zimmerman DL stint, then move one of them there full-time after Zim’s contract is up next winter? That would be a way to maximize ABs for all the OF talent, am I right?
Keith Law: If they re-sign Harper, they should explore trading Robles or Eaton. Moving any of those guys to 1b is a waste of their value and they do have Zimmerman in the way.

David: After the severity of the shoulder injury, would it be shocking if Julio Urias was able to carve out a solid career as a SP?
Keith Law: The base rate here is based on a small sample but it is zero – no pitcher has had that surgery and had any kind of solid career as a starter.

Darren: I always find myself wanting more with the Beyond meat burgers too, they need multiple sizes. I usually cook 1 extra for the family and it usually is split.
Keith Law: Glad it’s not just me.

Abe: Hi Keith – Always been a big fan of yours. I’m sure you’ve addressed this before, but is there any reason why you started doing your chats here and not ESPN (which was well before ESPN moved away from them all together)? Just curious to know!
Keith Law: That’s not accurate – I moved here when ESPN spiked their chats.

Scooter: How would you evaluate Gabe Kapler’s first season as an MLB manager? Think there is anything to the rumblings that free agents may not want to play for him?
Keith Law: I think he did a great job and it’s reflected in the standings and in the way several young players improved this year. I don’t believe those rumblings at all.

Greg: Curious how the Sale Snell debate compares to the Carpenter Vasquez voting in 2009
Keith Law: I’m triggered.

Grant: Do you expect all 30 teams to be represented at the Mesa brothers’ workout in Miami next month, considering VVM’s upside isn’t considered to be that of those such as Moncada, Lazarito, etc.?
Keith Law: There’s no reason for a team to skip it. Go see what they are, and if you don’t sign him, you still have information that might be useful later on.

Lemming: You want to go to Amsterdam… have you ever smoked? Would you consume if it was legal? Do you know of any benefits it would have for anxiety?
Keith Law: Never smoked weed or consumed it (or CBD) in any form. No objection to folks who want to. I asked Kathy Jennings, the Delaware candidate for Attorney General, for her view on decriminalization of marijuana possession and was pleased to hear her say she supported it as part of a larger criminal justice reform package.

Matt: A woman went up to Lindsay Graham and told him she had been raped when she was younger. He just shrugged and said “Go tell the cops.” How on earth do these monsters get voted into important jobs?
Keith Law: I mistakenly thought in 2016 that he was a relative voice of reason in that party. He has proven me more wrong than I was on Sale and Goldschmidt combined.

DuffMann: A few days ago I saw you post your appreciation of Evolution’s Lot No. 3 on Twitter. When you’re traveling around the country and decide to have a beer are you usually an IPA guy?
Keith Law: I’m not. That is my favorite IPA though.

Jace: Surprised at how well Ohtani has hit? I thought you said he wasn’t a MLB ready bat
Keith Law: In half a season of judicious usage. I’m more surprised how often I see him get pitches out over the plate, since he’s got such a weakness inside (and a 30% K rate).

Steve: Looks like Duquette is going, Buck is staying. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Keeping Showalter, given their problems developing pitching under his watch, and thus saying the new GM doesn’t get to pick his manager, would be a big concern if I were an O’s fan.

Lumin: BP has Trout ahead of Betts in WARP, so a Trout vote is by no means wrong. However, that difference is not explained defensively – all 3 sites say that Betts has been roughly 1 win better in the field.

But I found your reasoning for putting Trout over Betts interesting, and it’s basically that KLawWAR is constructed differently than bWAR or fWAR, right? With high skepticism of current defensive quantification and high emphasis on TAv (true average)?
Keith Law: I try not to be too slavish to any single WAR because they all impart useful information, and some of the component stats (like defensive metrics) are still a little noisy. I don’t use the BP stats, though.

Kevin: Believer in Marquez? Should Colorado lock him up? Reminds me of the second half Arrieta had a few years ago
Keith Law: His year has been outstanding. I think he’s going to still have trouble with LHB and if he has a bad-luck year in that regard he’s going to lose a lot of value quickly.

Tracy: The Name of the Rose vs. The Hound of the Baskervilles. Go.
Keith Law: I’m in the tank for Sherlock Holmes. Sorry.

Skip: Any chance that Renato Nunez could be the long term answer at 3B for the Orioles? Defense was a real question mark but he’s looked pretty good there since he’s started playing every day.
Keith Law: Seen him a lot as a prospect and he was never close to playable at third for me.

Joshua: Chloe Dancer/Crown of Thorns is a masterpiece. And yes, the chat has now ended.
Keith Law: Let us go in peace to love and serve the WAR. Thank you all for all of your questions, as always. I’ll chat next week as well, likely Thursday again. Enjoy this final weekend and let’s hope we get a game 163 on Monday.

My annual look at players I was wrong about is now up for ESPN+ subscribers. (Please read the intro to that column before asking about it here.) I also reviewed the digital version of Scythe, available on Steam, for Ars Technica.

Keith Law: I can feel no sense of measure. Klawchat.

Nick: Are you at all worried about Machado’s career splits at Camden Yards and away? He’s been league-average outside of Baltimore.
Keith Law: No. Camden Yards is not a hitter’s park despite its reputation as such.

Nick: If you’re the Rangers, do you look to trade Profar or is he a guy that could be a part of the next good Rangers team?
Keith Law: I’d hate to give up on a guy who was my #1 overall prospect before the shoulder injury cost him two years, and who now seems to be getting back on track to at least above-average regular status (and I’m stubborn, I still expect more).

squeeze bunt: A lot of writers are saying Preller is going to do something big to acquire a starting pitcher. What kind of move can you see this taking shape as? Thor or something similar?
Keith Law: I don’t see why he’d do that with all the pitching coming – and some of it quite close to ready.

Chris: As Edwin Diaz continues to accumulate saves, the Mariners message boards are actively rooting for teams to score runs when the Mariners are ahead to bring the margin within three. I get not having anything else to look forward to as they’re not going to make the playoffs, but is there any better example of saves being so arbitrary and non-substantive and of a stat where game strategy might change just to fit a specific situation that may or may not occur? There’s even advocating for him to start the 7th to get a 3 inning save up 10-0.
Keith Law: Fuck the save stat.

Nick: Does Puig still have a star ceiling or is he settled in as a regular that fluctuates between average and above?
Keith Law: He has the tools to be a star but I don’t think it’s reasonable to speak of ceiling for a player whose listed age is 27 (he’ll play all of next year at 28) and hasn’t had a star-level performance in any of the last five seasons.

Dan the Mets Fan: I’m calling it now: Jeff McNeil headlining “Players I Was Wrong About” next year.
Keith Law: If McNeil posts a .360 BABIP in a full season next year, sure. At least you seem like you read the intro, though.

Dan the Mets Fan: Who would you pursue at C if you had no real solution there… Ramos or Grandal?
Keith Law: I’d prefer Ramos.

Kevin : Oriole OF Diaz- does he start next year as your opening day outfielder or does he stay on the farm and
Keith Law: If they want to play service time games, then he starts on the farm, but I’d just give him a regular job next year (and not re-sign Jones) and let him develop.

David: We’re just going to keep doing this stupid Tebow thing, aren’t we?
Keith Law: Yep, and we’re going to make it some weird referendum on America or Christianity or the flag, too.

John: Does major league baseball do anything about the Major disparity among payrolls. I love baseball but it just doesn’t seem fair. Are you amazed at the A’s and Rays have done so well ? It’s also about how much you spend on your scouting and not just payroll
Keith Law: “Fair” is an arbitrary concept, and probably not a great argument for trying to equalize payrolls – which, by the way, won’t do anything but shift money from players to the billionaire owners.

Washington nationals fan: If you were the GM of the Nats does Dave Martinez return as your manager for 2019 ?
Keith Law: Yes. I don’t think he’s any of the problem this year. That’s not saying I think he’s great, or clearly the long-term answer, but evaluating him on this year’s won/lost record would probably not yield meaningful information.

Stanley: Do you agree that the powers that be in D.C. should be pushing Keith Ellison for information about the accusations against him just as much as they are pushing Kavanaugh? The allegations against Ellison are very recent and specific, with photographs and police reports. The fact that someone so high in his party seems to be getting an Osuna-like free pass just proves the hypocrisy that is so prevalent among our national leaders.
Keith Law: I do. I’ve been surprised he’s skated on the accusations – and Democrats who were furious he didn’t get the DNC chair have to be relieved at this point.

Archie: This season will have the most games ever where a team used at least 7 pitchers. Do you see this as a good thing for the game?
Keith Law: I don’t, but I’m loath to make too many changes that might force some pitchers to work more than is safe for their arms. Reducing mid-inning pitching changes – that is, forcing managers to make more changes between innings – would help pace of play, although it probably would increase run-scoring.

BE: Are you able to turn your guitar volume to 11?
Keith Law: Of course. I bought a special amplifier for that very reason.

Meeee: I know you’d probably think it would be too self-congratulatory, but would you ever write a “Guys I got RIGHT (that nobody else did)” column? I’d find it interesting.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t for that reason. Readers are generally quite kind about pointing those out anyway.
Keith Law: Oh, also, how about that Jack Flaherty fella?

Rhys: Daz Cameron spanned 3 levels this year at age 21 – was this surprising to you? He seemed to struggle in AAA (although in only 57 ABs). Do you see him as anything more than a marginal MLB regular someday?
Keith Law: 57 AB is barely worth acknowledging, and I think he’s an above-average regular. I’m totally flummoxed at why you think he’s just a marginal regular.

Dr. Bob: The Cardinals’ Tyler O’Neil was considered the better OF prospect but Harrison Bader was more major league ready so he got the first call-up this year. Now he’s become the everyday center fielder. Safe to say no one else saw this coming either. Great defense and he is lightning quick. We’ll see what kind of hitter he becomes.
Keith Law: Did I rank O’Neill higher? I’ve always been skeptical of his swing and miss, his pull-heavy approach, and his lack of defensive value. Bader, of course, has gotten way better since they drafted him – I find the improvement in his speed, which is extremely rare especially among college draftees, totally fascinating.

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: It’s looking more and more like the Mets poor record won’t cost deGrom the Cy Young…but isn’t it marginally disappointing that he probably could have won the MVP if the Mets didn’t suck?
Keith Law: There’s such a strong bias in MVP voting against pitchers I don’t think he would have won it. I think it goes to Yelich or Baez at this point.

Joe: Keith, did you ever write up the Cutch trade? What kind of players are Avelino and DePaula?
Keith Law: I didn’t, and you can infer my answer from that.

Robert: Impressions on Jake Bauers . Does he have a starting position in 2019 ?
Keith Law: Still think he has a chance to be a regular, but the lack of power – and he’s even said the Rays’ attempts to improve his launch angle screwed him up as a hitter – is a major limiting factor given his lack of defensive value. Might be a bench guy or tweener for them in 2019.

Nick: Can one of the Phillies low-minors MIF take off next year (Gamboa, Guzman, Brito)?
Keith Law: I think Luis Garcia (the SS, not the P) is going to blow right past those guys. Not a big Gamboa believer; Brito has ability but he’s not strong enough to convert that to production yet.

Patrick: I want to ask about Ryan OHearn. 1.2 war in 38 games. SSS range so what’s real and what’s a mirage about him so far?
Keith Law: It’s not real pretty but he makes very hard contact. The major-league baseball is helping him – the guy never slugged .500 anywhere in full-season ball, and now he’s over .600 in the majors? – but I think he could be a second-division regular with some patience and power despite low batting averages.

Chris: Read today: “I just seem to see modern day players age way quicker than the less-muscular, less Strength and Conditioning coached, no Staff Nutritionist players of days gone by.”

This immediately got support from other commenters, but this struck me as inherently false…it’s purely anecdotal. Am I wrong here?
Keith Law: Yes, anecdotal, and certainly counterintuitive.

Chris: Where do you think Baez lands on the NL MVP list? Like everyone else, I loooove watching him play, but it seems strange to me that he could win with such a pedestrian OBP. Am I nitpicking here, or does this put him in the 2nd tier of NL candidates?
Keith Law: No, he’s clearly in the top group of maybe a half dozen guys, because he plays critical positions and plays them well. I could easily justify putting him ahead of some guys who are a half a win (by WAR) over him because of the value of his positional versatility.

jacos: Do you see Cubs moving Schwarber, Russel and or Almora in off season, especially if they sign Harper?
Keith Law: I have no inside information on this but I get the sense they’re about done with Russell. He’s superfluous anyway.

Zac: Michael Fulmer and Daniel Norris seems to always be battling injuries, who do you feel more confident moving forward?
Keith Law: Fulmer, just because Norris’ velocity hasn’t been there this year. Still holding out hope for both guys; Norris is so athletic and has such great baseball acumen that i feel like he’ll put it together if his body allows it.

Ryan: Is it time for the Cardinals to look to trade Carson Kelly in the offseason? Seems like Knizner is close to passing him on the depth chart, if he hasn’t already, and Kelly seems stuck at AAA with Molina under contract for two more season.
Keith Law: Yes – I think they should have done so already.

Alex: Do you think your phone number or social security number could be in sequential order in the number pi?
Keith Law: Funny question. There are sites that let you search within pi, and the answer is no for mine.

Grant: I see a lot of people predicting Adell could be up by next July. Would that be rushing him in your mind?
Keith Law: Yes but to be fair 1) he’s been so much better this year than I expected, now that he’s made a few small but substantial adjustments and 2) the uberathletes like him tend to move pretty quickly.

JR: Did you consider Nimmo for players you were wrong about? IIRC, the past few years you’ve projected him as a fourth/fifth OF – do you still view him as such, or can he be an everyday guy?
Keith Law: My criticism of him has always been that he doesn’t produce vs LHP, and that is still true. He was a top 100 guy at least once for me.

Drew: The Royals are a ways away from contending. Whit is good and not young…so they should probably trade him. With his cost controlled contract, what’s that worth? Top 100 prospect?
Keith Law: Yes, they should have done so in July. I would think he’d fetch two quality prospects of some sort.

WSox Fan: This rebuild is heading nowhere isn’t it?
Keith Law: That seems rather pessimistic.
Keith Law: Also, I don’t agree.

Baseball loves gross narratives: Lots of Rays catching the A’s for the WC2 spot. I’m trying to tell people to simmer down but they won’t listen. Please talk some sense into them for me, will you?
Keith Law: It’s unlikely, but not entirely impossible.

Guest: What is the most common “missed tool or added skill” when a player over performs their minor league scouting evaluations on the big league level?
Keith Law: Hit tool or fastball command.

Tysen: Do we need to blow up the current MLB/MiLB dynamic? It’s appalling how little those guys make in a season
Keith Law: Too late. The GOP Tax Scam law pretty much ended this discussion. I don’t understand how any minor league player or anyone who is close to one could vote for a Senator or Representative who voted for that bill – voted to take the player’s fundamental rights as a laborer away.

Bobwalktheplank: I what point do the Pirates just say maybe Josh Bell isn’t that good. His hitting numbers might be a tick above average but his defense and baserunning are not good. Is their still upside?
Keith Law: There is still upside – but I think it’s fair to ask why so many Pirates hitters who have raw power haven’t shown it, with Bell at/near the top of that list.

Matt, KY: Consider this Trade: Trout to the Braves for the following: Inciate, Touki, Riley, Wright, and Anderson. Who hangs up first, Angels or Braves?
Keith Law: I saw this, and it was so fucking stupid I ignored it and went on with my life.

Jamal: Do WAR totals change? As in, if I look at a player’s WAR after the 2016 season, would it be different now?
Keith Law: No, not in the way I think you’re asking.

HH: Is Tristan McKenzie still too far away to content for the #5 spot in next year’s rotation? Or do I just think he’s young because he’s SO skinny.
Keith Law: Given his workload this year I’d try not to do that to him next spring.

AC: Luke Voit, a blip, a useful future backup, a starter, something else?
Keith Law: Nice backup.

Michael: White Sox GM Hahn hinted at a big prospect-for-prospect deal this winter. Reds seem set at 3B/SS and ChiSox have lots of OF prospects. Who says no to Senzel for Madrigal and Luis Gonzalez?
Keith Law: Reds are set at SS? I wouldn’t say so.

Tired: Is there such a thing as “catching up on sleep”?
Keith Law: According to Matthew Walker & his book Why We Sleep, no, there isn’t.

Gus Johnson: Aside from Kershaw (who will probably resign with the Dodgers?), Patrick Corbin looks like the only high-impact FA pitcher. Would you give him a Yu Darvish-type contract (6 yr/126M)?
Keith Law: I would. I agree on Kershaw, and that Corbin is the best ‘real’ FA pitcher on the market.

Lilith: Do you think Senzel could play CF? How well?
Keith Law: I’d be very, very surprised.

Andrew: Phillies are carrying 40 on their active roster, which many are calling bad for baseball. I think the concerns about pitching changes and substitutions are overblown – I doubt the casual fan really cares about pitching changes, and it really only irks those who have to cover 162 games. What are your thoughts?
Keith Law: Carrying 40 isn’t the problem. Using 33 guys a game would be a problem.

Kevin: with arm issues always a big deal why do prospects continue to pitch through the end of summer and into the fall? If they are that good shouldn’t April – August be enough?
Keith Law: Most guys who pitch in the fall are doing so because either 1) they missed time earlier in the year due to injury or suspension, or 2) the parent club is trying to make a decision on whether to protect them from rule 5 or trying to stir up trade interest.

Kace: Are guys like Chapman, Merrifield and previously Bautista unicorns or can hard work and a change of approach fix a lot of so-so players?
Keith Law: We hear about the players who do all of this and get results; we don’t hear about the dozens more who try these things and don’t improve. It’s always worth trying, but if you’re a GM or a Director of Player Development, you have to understand many attempts will fail.

Sean: Is it best the Blue Jays just do a full-on rebuild or try to rebuild on the fly? I ask simply because the attendance has taken the largest dive this year from what I’ve read, not sure how much doing a full rebuild would hurt the fanbase.
Keith Law: I thought they should rebuild last winter – trade Donaldson, at least explore the markets for Stroman and Sanchez, etc. They could still do some of that although they may have missed their prime opportunity.

Robbie: The great AL ROY debate: Does Ohtani’s innings pitched and superior bat outweigh andujar’s full season of at bats?
Keith Law: Ohtani has outproduced Andujar and Gleyber. I don’t think this is really a debate.

JR: You’ve regularly been asked about Jeff McNeil over the past few weeks, and have always rightly cautioned this is SSS. Having said that, how does an organization evaluate his time at the big leagues to date? They clearly have an opening at 2B and he’s played well (in a short time frame). Do they pencil him in for the role next season, or do they still look to add a 2B in the offseason?
Keith Law: No harm in letting a player like that – already on the roster, making no money – fill that spot next year when you’re unlikely to contend. If they were a potential playoff team, my answer would differ. At that point you don’t want to bet on a tiny sample or a fluky performance.

Ryan: There have been a bunch of articles recently regarding fixes to the service time manipulation. What would be your fix to teams keeping down clearly ready prospects?
Keith Law: One fix I proposed a few years ago, when Kris Bryant was held back to delay free agency, was to give teams a sort of right of first refusal for players who reached FA with exactly six years of service – that is, a player who made an Opening Day roster and never went back down.

Lee_Keybum: On your next periscope chat, can you do it without a shirt?
Keith Law: I’m sorry, I believe you’re looking for Alex Jones, and he is currently banned from everywhere.

Guest: Does Frankie Montas have the secondary stuff to remain as a starter?
Keith Law: I do not think so.

Phil : I am reading your book and I was wondering about pitch framing as a learned skill. Do some organizations focus on teaching it or do they just try to identify the best and acquire them?
Keith Law: Several do try to teach it.

Alex: RE: Ellison v. Kavanaugh- I agree that Ellison’s actions appear to have been repugnant and should be disqualifying from a career in public life, but as a candidate for public office (Minnesota AG) the voters have an opportunity to make their own decision on his suitability for the position he seeks (and, yes, the DNC should turf him out). DC Republicans are doing everything in their power to confirm Kavanaugh before the midterms, and he isn’t even personally on the ballot anywhere.
Keith Law: Yes, that’s a separate question, and of course I think Kavanaugh should be rejected.

Chris: Thanks for your review of Florida. I had gotten up to Above and Below when I saw in your newsletter you were reading the book. I had to put it down for a while after A and B, but I did not know the last story sees the return of the character from the first.
Keith Law: I was surprised how much the stories affected me when Groff’s voice is somewhat distant from her own characters.

Moe Mentum: Odubel Herrera 2019 : Phillies starter, Phillies bench player, or new team? We’ve seen flashes of talent, but his 2018 performance doesn’t seem commensurate with his salary. And he might not fit the Kapler vision. Should (can?) Klentak do something? Is Roman Quinn being groomed to start in CF next season?
Keith Law: He’s making $5 million next year. If he literally shows up to Citizens Bank Park on time on game days, he’ll be worth more than that. And Quinn has zero history of staying healthy – I wouldn’t bet on him for any regular role.

Nat: Who is the one hitter and one pitcher you are most looking forward to seeing in the AFL?
Keith Law: Luis Robert and Nate Pearson.

Anthony: If Colorado misses the playoffs, should they buy, sell or hold this offseason?
Keith Law: Hold/buy. Unless they make the organizational decision to trade Arenado, which I’m not advocating or opposing here, there’s no point to a rebuild. Either you do it all the way, including him, or you do nothing.

Eric: Do you think the Jays really held Alford down for two weeks at the end of the AAA season for service time reasons? Any thoughts of what he might be for the Jays going forward?
Keith Law: They held Vlad down for service time reasons. Why would we be surprised that they’d do this to another player? Alford has above-average regular upside but 1) his power has never translated into games 2) he gets hurt a lot and 3) he’s failed to perform in two of the last three years. There’s plenty of reason to question his eventual role & upside, even though he has been a top 50 prospect in the past.

Anthony: With the slider instead of the changeup, could Taillon be a 1/2 starter or is he going to have too much trouble with LHH?
Keith Law: It’s rare but not impossible for a pitcher to use a pitch like his slider (which is hard like a cutter) to get opposite-side hitters out. I’m just generally a Taillon fan anyway so I am inclined to think he can do it.

John: If you would the Cardinals how would you approach this off-season? See what Carlos Martinez could fetch and sign a starter? Pursue the big bats? Clear up the 2B/3B logjam and sign a real SS?
Keith Law: I think they have plenty of starters; really I look at their core and see a potential playoff team for 2019, although with Carpenter turning 33 in November they need to plan for a lineup without his production in the near future.

JR: As a Mets fan, I know the smart play is to shop deGrom, Thor and/or Wheeler this offseason, but man, aren’t those the types of starters to build around? Sucks to be a small market team in a big market.
Keith Law: You shop them all and see what you get; I doubt the market will offer huge returns for all three.

Sean: I have heard you say that Vlad Jr could be the next Big Papi in terms of position and ability to consistently hit for average and power. How long of a leash would you give him at 3B if you were the Jays next year?
Keith Law: I’ve seen him twice this year and expect to see him again in the AFL, but at this point, I don’t see any chance that body or lack of range works at third. Just DH him and tell him to go hit .360 with 40 bombs.

Dr. Bob: From an article by Jonah Keri, it appears that the Blue Jays are about to go with a youth movement. Don’t you need a better overall farm system to do that? Or is having a few top prospects enough?
Keith Law: They seem to believe they have a better farm system than they actually do.

Matt: Blake Rutherford seemed to make some progress offensively this season, but finished with an OPS under .800. Do you think he hits for enough power to project as a starting corner OF?
Keith Law: No – there’s no impact there and a corner bat has to have that.

Alex: How would you rate Klentak at this point? Should Phillies fans be optimistic? Seems like he’s been pretty hit/miss on player evaluations.
Keith Law: Think he’s done well everywhere but with first-round picks – although Randolph predates him. They haven’t hit on any of their last three prior to Bohm.

Rising tides: Isn’t service time manipulation really a symptom of MLBPA throwing 1-3yr service time players under the bus creating a huge pay inequality at the MLB level?
Keith Law: The union has long focused on free agency and the trickle-down effect it has on arbitration, but the minimum salary has gone up by nearly 70% in the last few CBAs, so they haven’t ignored 0-3 guys – they just might have undersold them.

Steven: Are we seeing the days of the 4th and 5th starter going by the wayside? Honestly, it seems like a much better strategy to let your 2 or 3 best pitchers go as deep into games as they can, while breaking up the other 2 games among your pen.
Keith Law: Nothing in baseball is permanent, but if you’re asking whether more teams will do bullpen days in 2019-20, I’d say yes, definitely.

Anthony: If you’re Counsell, how do you manage a one game playoff without a true ace? Throw out your best starter and be aggressive about bringing in Hader/Jeffress for possible multiple inning appearances?
Keith Law: Yeah, you plan on using Hader for 9 outs and go from there. Hell, what about starting him, knowing he’s probably out by the 4th? Other than one likely out when he bats, is there a downside I’m not considering?

Jake: Adalberto Mondesi has played very well over the last 50 games, do you see an All-star upside for this guy or will his low OBP always limit what he can be? The tools are there!
Keith Law: Low OBP really limits his ceiling – but Rougned Odor isn’t a dissimilar player and suddenly found religion at the plate this year.

Bench: Angels Luis Rengifo seems to come out of nowhere. Is he in their top 5 next year? Top 20 in MLB as well?
Keith Law: Nice pickup in the Cron deal, but not in their top 5, and I assume top 20 was a typo.

Jake: Thoughts on MJ Melendez, and was he projected to his for this much power?
Keith Law: Still very TBD on the bat. Had power in HS – fairly sure I wrote that about him, and I saw him destroy a ball when I went to his school that March. Would really like to see him catch, as he was very athletic and agile back there but almost too high energy.

Chad: When will you be in Arizona for the Fall League? Who will you be watching? Which new restaurant will you try?
Keith Law: Second week, I watch everybody, and I have a list of new restaurants. I did get to Roland’s over Labor Day weekend and it was excellent.

Jim Nantz: Are their enough pitchers to fill out 2 additional teams, if there’s expansion, without seriously diluting the product?
Keith Law: Yes.

JR: Is there any evidence that all the steps teams are taking to protect pitchers arms is working? Seems like a bunch of pitchers still end up needing TJ surgery, despite all the steps teams take. As awful as this sounds, do you think teams will start to treat pitchers the way NFL does with running backs? Realize most will only have a few good/great years, bring them up to the majors faster and just throw them as much as they can in the 6 years of control they have and hope for the best and then let them go (or trade them in year 4/5 if on a non-contender)?
Keith Law: My understanding is that although we’ve cut excessive workloads, which is probably the reason catastrophic shoulder injuries are way down, pitchers throwing as hard as they can just about all the time is still a big factor in UCL tears, and that hasn’t changed.

Chris: Imagine if the Mets let Dom Smith play 1B all year? Maybe he would have gotten the required ABs for a young player to develop and grow like, say, Amed Rosario! Yeeeeeeeesh. Should Mets just pick one of Smith or Alonso moving fwd?
Keith Law: Yes, they should commit to one and shop the other. If that means giving up on Smith, knowing he could very well go somewhere else and perform, so be it. But this is not how you develop a young player.

Jordan: Where would you rank the Mets farm system going into next season? Mid-tier? Seems like almost all their top-20 guys had terrific seasons.
Keith Law: Above the median. Good chance they’ll be top ten. Most of their big names had great years, they landed a stud in Kelenic, their second-rounder Woods-Richardson looked better in pro ball than in the spring, and they had some pop-up guys like Newton establish themselves as prospects too. I get Mets fans on Twitter telling me how bad they think the farm is, but they’re totally wrong. They’ve drafted well, consistently, and hit on some international guys too.

John: is it just me, or do you think one of the biggest issues facing society today is how little people seem to grasp the concept of nuance? not even related to a single issue. people don’t understand how free speech works, and in the case of kavanaugh, they dont understand this isnt a criminal trial, but a high profile job application. is nuance just too difficult to grasp/teach?
Keith Law: I feel like in any argument there’s a reach for a quick answer – oh, don’t you believe in due process? what about freedom of speech, huh? – that sounds good even if it doesn’t apply to the situation. It’s about winning the debate, or just dunking on someone. I’m sure I fall prey to this too.

Joe: You (and a lot of others) weren’t high on Brandon Lowe going into this year. Has anything changed for him? What kind of future does he have?
Keith Law: I know scouts who NP’d him in 2016. I don’t love the swing – what I’ve seen on TV, which isn’t a great angle – and am curious to see whether he can still hit for power without striking out like crazy.

Ridley Kemp: I get most of my book recommendations from Austin’s robust book store scene (I’m very lucky in that regard), from Warren Ellis, and from, um…you. Where you get your recs from, or what typically makes you decide to select a particular book?
Keith Law: I scan a lot of best-of lists, I get recs all the time from friends and readers, and I like to prowl indie bookstores and see what catches my eye.

Jack: Brayan Rocchio – have you seen him? What are your thoughts
Keith Law: I haven’t yet but all the reports I have are glowing.

Ted: I realize you’re not a big college football fan, but do you have any thoughts on Nick Bofa’s injury?
Keith Law: Yeah, sounds like the damage to his ligma is serious.

Zac: In regards to minor league pay, who owns the minor league teams are most of them owned by the major league owner or are most of them owned by people not related to their parent club
Keith Law: Most are independently owned, and when they sell, their values keep increasing. That wouldn’t happen if these teams were actually losing money as some doofuses tried to tell me on the twitters yesterday.

Mike: Have you been surprised at how quickly Ronald Acuña Jr.’s power has come this year? He’s on a 42 home run pace over 162 games as a 20 year old.
Keith Law: The major league baseball is different than the minor league one – Meredith Wills now has two pieces up on The Athletic, one just went up this week, explaining why. Everyone is hitting for more power in the majors.

Felix: I’ve read your list. My girlfriend and I really enjoy playing Ticket to Ride. What’s your favorite 2 player board game? What should we try next?
Keith Law: Jaipur.

Russell : Do you think Everson Pereira will be ready to start 2019 in Low A ?
Keith Law: Possibly but he barely played this summer due to injuries.

Marco: in your answer about Puig, you referenced his “listed age”. Why the qualifier? Is there evidence he could be older than 27?
Keith Law: Cuban players’ ages are all a little dubious, because (as far as I’ve been told) we have little/no access to records from there. I’ve mentioned that on a few Cuban players before.

Tracy: I’m reading The Castle by Kafka. I’m halfway through but it’s so boring I’m ready to dump it and move on. Can I get your blessing?
Keith Law: Yes. Life is too short to read bad books.

Chris: May we have a short review of Florida…the state?
Keith Law: America’s armpit. No, look at it – it’s rather axillary in shape, right?

Tim: You really don’t think the Mets are at least a *potential* playoff team next year if they can run deGrom-Syndergaard-Wheeler-Matz out there as their front 4?
Keith Law: How many starts you think you’re getting from that quartet?

Chris: Do you think Max Kepler has more to offer or is he what he is at this point?
Keith Law: Still expecting more. Again, maybe I’m just stubborn.

Christopher: With Brandon Morrow out, I keep hearing radio and tv analysts lamenting the lack of “closer” in the Cubs rotation for the playoffs. “Closer” this, and “closer” that. Can’t the Cubs just plug their best-available pitcher in depending on the inning/situation, or am I simplifying this too much? I didn’t realize that “closer” was a separate roster spot or position on the field.
Keith Law: They can and they will, or at least they’ll try to, although I think Maddon’s bullpen management has been questionable.

JT: What’s David Bote’s future? And is it with the Cubs or elsewhere?
Keith Law: If they keep him as a UT he’d be outstanding, but he could probably be a second-division starter at 2b.

MJ: Thoughts on Billy McKinney going forward? He’s been impressive for the Jays since the trade.
Keith Law: Extra OF tops.

Chris Bianco : Why were so many troglodytes upset by Pizzeria Bianco topping your pizza list?
Keith Law: Mostly because they’d never tried it. My favorite troglodyte was the one who asked me, a NY native who regularly writes about going to games in Trenton and Lakewood, if I’d ever BEEN to New Jersey.
Keith Law: I wanted to say “yeah, that’s where we New Yorkers sent our garbage,” but that seemed a little mean.

Steve: Don Welke passed away – you talk to him much?
Keith Law: I didn’t see that till just now, but I did, and I always enjoyed listening to him. He was smart, funny, played the clown a little bit but I always thought he was trying to disarm people. He had something like 50 years in the game, and a wealth of knowledge and memories to share. What a terrible loss for all of us in the sport.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week’s chat – thank you so much for joining me, and for all of your questions, as always. I’ll be back next week to do this again; my next column will be my postseason award picks, and I think it’ll run on Thursday. Thanks again.