My annual list of potential breakout players is now up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: I need for you to be reasonable. Klawchat.

barbeach: KLaw thanks as always for the chat. What are your thoughts on Gio Gonzalez…does he have anything left?
Keith Law: More than that. I think he can be a league-average starter for someone. I find it very hard to believe his claim that he didn’t receive *any* offers before yesterday. Maybe he didn’t get any offers he thought were fair – I can believe that, in this market – but he would make at least 20 rotations better.

Bay of Puigs: hey Keith, can you please suggest a few NL starting pitchers who you expect will take a big step forward this year?
Keith Law: My breakouts column went up this morning: https://klaw.me/2Ctw1us Anyone I feel like that about is in the column.

Kid Koala: Is this the year Tyler Glasnow puts it all together?
Keith Law: I would bet no.

Richard: So it looks like Alex Reyes starts his season in the Cardinals’ pen. Think he can still develop into a Top 50 starter this year, or is health too great an obstacle?
Keith Law: I see two obstacles: The fact that he has barely pitched the last few years, which would make it unlikely he can jump to 100-120 innings without incident, and a delivery that seems to result in him getting hurt.

Ridley: With Miley and McHugh in the rotation, Peacock likely joining them and Whitley around in midseason, do you think Josh James can still be an impact starter in Houston this year? (Or ever)?
Keith Law: Yes, this year and going forward. I’d much rather start James than Peacock.

Moe Mentum: Besides baseball, what was the last professional sporting event you attended? How about attended *and enjoyed* if that’s a different answer?
Keith Law: I don’t remember. I went to a hockey game in Toronto in 2003 or so. That might be it. Even if I’m not working, being at a professional sporting event feels like I’m at work.

Scotty Jetpack: Hi Keith – do you see Kingery as anything more than a super-utility player moving forward? Based on his power/speed combo and success in the minors, I was expecting more, and most likely so were the Phillies’ brass when they handed him 6/$24M (with $65 total possible) before he even made his MLB debut. He was one of the worst position players in the MLB last year statistically, but due to his versatility, he’s currently the backup SS, 2B, and 3B and can also play OF in a pinch, which is valuable. But as long as we have Cesar Hernandez at 2B, I don’t see where he fits everyday. Thoughts?
Keith Law: He doesn’t fit everyday on the current Phillies but I think he’s going to end up a regular. He’s a ++ defender at second.

Ken: Chris Russo took a lame shot at you the other day on the radio saying what in the world did you know about sports in reference to a caller who called saying that the Angels were improving with the 7th ranked farm system. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I think you wasted your time listening to him. Go watch paint dry instead.

Alex: Best book for dealing with anxiety you’ve ever read?
Keith Law: Fully Present.

Perd Hapley: K-Law I have a question for you and my question is this. When does the international signing period begun and end…for those who callers who don’t know an international signing period is what?
Keith Law: Starts July 2nd, although the main prospects have agreements in place long before that, as much as two years before.

Craig Kimbrel: At this point, am I likely to get a bigger contract if I wait to sign until after the draft in June?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. The draft pick was never the issue; it’s the demand for a six-year deal plus the poor performance in October.

Ivan: Given the 2019 rotation uncertainty, should Atlanta sign Dallas Keuchel to a 1 year deal?
Keith Law: It wouldn’t hurt them but they have so much internal pitching depth I think they benefit less from adding Keuchel than most contenders would.

Alan: Hunter Bishop. Give us the deets! The helium legit? Is he a CF long-term? Should we expect a jump in your rankings?
Keith Law: Not a CF. Clearly a first-rounder right now.

Ben: What are you thoughts on what the Tiger’s should look to do at pick 5? Thanks
Keith Law: Best player available. That’s probably a college position player – I don’t think there’s a college starter in the top ten, and there might be just one HS pitcher up there.

Jarry: Thoughts on Ichiro’s two game farewell? I know they won so it didn’t hurt them, but offensively he’s at a Tebow level right now. Seems crazy that they did this.
Keith Law: Crazy how? Hall of Famer on both sides of the ocean gets to play his final games in his home country, with the MLB team where he spent most of his career, in two games that really don’t mean anything to Seattle since they’re not contending.

Zac: Eloy Jimenez extension good or bad? Will this be the new norm for teams to get 8 years of control?
Keith Law: Good for him, good for the team (with some risk), perhaps not great for players as a whole, but how could you tell any player to turn down that money when he has yet to earn a single big-league paycheck?

Dr. Bob: What do you think of Fangraphs incorporation of pitch framing into catcher’s WAR? Yadier Molina now moves up to 13th all time. He is in the negative on offense, but has the highest defensive numbers in history. Does this change the debate?
Keith Law: It doesn’t change the debate, although it was funny how many BFIBs seemed to think it did. This isn’t new data; it is a combination of data we already had. I said on Twitter, though, that I think Fangraphs made a colossal mistake in doing this. You can no longer use their WAR to compare catchers from this era to those in previous eras – was Johnny Bench a great framer, with his gigantic hands? Fisk? Carter? Maybe one of them was terrible, too, and we have no idea.

Zac: Are Michael Fulmers best years behind him?
Keith Law: I hope not.

Sean: Is durability in position players a real thing? Seems like injuries are randomly distributed and you can’t predict future games played based on prior injury history, but not sure which side the data supports, do you have any insights?
Keith Law: Yes. Staying healthy is a skill for position players. For pitchers, though, I don’t think we know much at all; by the time we can say a pitcher is durable his durability may be past tense.

Devin’s Cow: Hi Keith, please moooove this question to the top of your queue: what are your thoughts on these early regular season games in Japan? The week delay between these games and the rest of the opening days seems odd and sort of jarring. These feel more like international exhibition games, especially with the crazy early start times in the US.
Keith Law: Great for the sport, hard on the players.

Tom: So even though service time manipulation is no longer an issue with Eloy Jimenez signing a long-term deal, the Sox will still keep him down in AAA for some period of time, right? I mean, if they call him up right away isn’t that the same as admitting that they sent him down for non-baseball reasons in the first place?
Keith Law: What’s the consequence? If they call him up right away, so what? He’s not filing a grievance after signing this deal (and maybe agreed not to do so).

Sean: I keep reading that Nick Pivetta is going to break out this year. I am still very skeptical. What are your thoughts?
Keith Law: I do not believe so. I think he’s miscast as a traditional starter and see no reason to rethink that.

Jon V: The recent extensions make a lindor long term deal in Cleveland even more unlikely. Would you ride out his contracted window or look to move him at some point after this season?
Keith Law: I’d move him after this season, because I think you can get the sun and the moon for him.

J Dawg: How good can Braves Kyle Wright be this year?
Keith Law: Maybe league-average this year. Would probably guess a little below for now, although I think he has more potential in the long term.

Jon V: Does Bauer’s personality impact his trade value? Does his stated desire to go year by year after his arb years impact his trade value?
Keith Law: I am sure some teams would shy away from him, fearing that he’ll create some unwanted controversy or, worse, do something to get himself suspended, but his talent is also such that (I’m guessing) the majority of teams would just take him. There are teams that have no problem taking domestic abusers as long as they have a modicum of talent remaining. The Pirates welcomed Kang back after multiple DUIs, including a hit-and-run, and a sexual assault allegation.

Drew: How would you handle Chris Paddack this season for the Padres?
Keith Law: Just start the guy.

Jeff: Going up to Corvallis to watch Rutschman and Vaughn this weekend? That’s a nice matchup.
Keith Law: That’s the plan although the weather doesn’t look great.

Joseph: So were you completely against the Ichiro 2019 saga like you are against a hypothetical Tebow callup or are you a hypocrite?
Keith Law: How stupid must you be to compare a Hall of Famer like Ichiro to a guy who hasn’t even hit in the minors? I’m surprised you didn’t somehow mix up your and you’re in there.

Tony: Apologies if you’ve been asked this one before but do you think it’s possible that Oakland knew Addison Russell was a budding dirt bag? If I recall he was rocketing into the top 5 overall when traded. Would a team keep this type of info private?
Keith Law: I never heard a word of this until Russell’s ex first posted about it on IG.

Chris: Just curious, do you regularly get out of the blue replies to 2 year old tweets like Soundsing Mad Yadi Fan yesterday?
Keith Law: No. Some BFIB account retweeted that, and then a handful of people too slow to look at a timestamp started yelling at me.

Ben: Think Daniel Lynch starts in HighA? Or could be pushed to AA?
Keith Law: My guess is high A but not for very long.

CH: Wheeler will be Mets best SP this year. Tell me I’m wrong!
Keith Law: You’re wrong.

Todd: Silly question, all things equal, did the Yankees make the right choice in choosing from the Cubs Gleyer instead of Eloy?
Keith Law: Yes, not that there’s a huge gap.

MJ: Do you think Bryse Wilson pitches a significant amount of innings (say >100) at the major league level this year? Can he be at least league average?
Keith Law: I’m a huge fan but I think he’s probably behind too many other guys in their starter queue at the moment to predict that many starts (that’s probably 15+ starts in the majors).

Erik: I love Jake Bauers’ approach (ie all the walks) last year but his average cratered, especially in the second half. What are your thoughts on him and can he be at least a league average player given his defensive shortcomings?
Keith Law: I think that’s the most he can be, with the lack of power and negative defensive value.

Tribe Called Jest: Higher ceiling youngster, Lenny Torres or Ethan Hankins?
Keith Law: If Hankins’ stuff ever returns, it’s him.

Gritty: Ichiro earned a sendoff. What has Tebow done to deserve the attention he’s gotten thus far?
Keith Law: Threw a football, and not well.

Aubrey: Do you still believe in the Johan Santana development model of using a young starter in the bullpen first, then to the rotation? What makes a young guy like Forrest Whitley a good or bad candidate for that role?
Keith Law: I believe in it wholeheartedly. If I ran a team I’d try to break every starter in that way – in long relief, though, not as a one-inning reliever. It’s a planned development path, not a “stick him in the bullpen, let the manager use him however” deal.

Kevin : Is there a point where you are to tall to be an effective major leaguer?
Keith Law: A fair question. We’ve never had a 7′ big leaguer. Is that because it doesn’t work, or because they’re selected into basketball? There are certainly diminishing returns to height beyond at 6’6″.

Rick Sanchez : I wanted to just give Pete Buttigieg a quick pop. I feel like the only reason he’s behind candidates like Beto and Kamala in the polls is because he doesn’t grab media attention as well as they do, especially through social media. It kills me how much influence social media has these days! I encourage everyone to check out an interview of this guy- he’s super sharp and laser focused, with a great resume to back it all up. I’d recommend checking out his interviews from the Washington Post or Pod Save America. He also came on Chris Wallace’s show, which I wish more Dems would do!
Keith Law: Two thoughts. One, yeah, he’s been very, very impressive so far. He appears to be one of the most intelligent candidates, declared or rumored. And two, it doesn’t take much for a candidate like him to surge in the runup to the primaries – I’ve mentioned before how Clinton was seen as a longshot in 1991 and won the election, and pre-scandal Gary Hart went from extreme longshot to the close runner-up in 1984.

Danny: Is Spencer Jones the type of pitcher the Yankees typically target? (he seems like the only Oppenheimer special-SoCal pitcher- in the top 2 rounds)
Keith Law: No, and he hasn’t been very good in the early going.

Kevin : I know it’s never going to happen but would you be in favor of a relegation system for mlb?
Keith Law: No.

AGirlHasNoName: What’s the best use of twitter as a newbie? I mostly have been using it as a news filter, is that it? Otherwise reading the replies seems to lower my opinion of humanity.
Keith Law: That’s probably the best use. And/or follow people who tweet interesting links.

Discount Steve Urkel: Have you seen Luis Robert this spring?
Keith Law: Nope. Tried Monday, he wasn’t playing. Have had other priorities since. I can only chase a shadow for so long/

Kevin : What do you drink when you are on the road (besides coffee)?
Keith Law: Tea or water. That’s it.

Esteban: what’s the difference between an above average and a plus pitch? Let’s use a curve for instance, is it simply inches of break? Or is it a multitude of things like velo, control etc.? Can a slow breaking ball be as effective as a hard breaking ball?
Keith Law: Do hitters swing and miss at it? How often? That’s really all that matters in the end.

Mark: Do you think we will see more young players sign extensions as a reaction to the uncertainty in the CBA (ie they would be afraid that the union would continue to bargain in favor of veteran players at the expense of young players)?
Keith Law: These deals aren’t new. I don’t think this is a substantial change in philosophy for teams or players.

Sean: How many major league innings will Daniel Lynch pitch this year?
Keith Law: Zero.

Sean: Who breaks settles into a rotation spot first – Adonis Medina or Spencer Howard?
Keith Law: Breaks or settles? Howard is the clear starter prospect. Medina is probably more likely a reliever than a starter.

Joe: Do some associate scouts get paid? I read a news article recently that said that an associate scout had to sign a contract with a team. How many associate scouts do most teams have?
Keith Law: That role barely exists today.

Dan: What are your thoughts on Jeter Downs? Does he have star upside? He had a very impressive debut last year but I haven’t seen a ton about him.
Keith Law: Above-average upside, not star.

Kevin : Any chance the screwball will come back in vogue, or is it to hard on your arm?
Keith Law: There’s a very strong belief throughout baseball that it leads to arm problems. I find that somewhat amusing because so does every other fucking pitch guys throw.

JP: no question, just a kudos to the Blue Jays for being first at Making America’s Pastime Resemble A Living Wage.
Keith Law: Absolutely – they’re not getting quite enough credit, IMO, because it’s easy to say that they didn’t do enough. They did more than any other team has done, by a lot, so why not praise them for it and hope it provides other teams with an incentive to follow suit or further raise the ceiling for minor leaguers?

Greg S: Would Navy RHP Noah Song be a day 1 pick were teams not contending with a 2 year military commitment? Is he the best service academy prospect to pop up?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, and I don’t know the answer to the second question. Probably better for Jim Callis, who’s done this longer.

Rico Brogna : Any reason to think if Pivetta adds more consistency that he can eventually be the #2 starter behind Nola?
Keith Law: No. His issue isn’t consistency.

Shane: Thoughts on the Woodstock 50 line-up?
Keith Law: I could not care less about that.

Jeff: The Mets seem serious about breaking camp with both Smith and Alonso. That’s dumb, right?
Keith Law: I just don’t know how you play either of them enough to figure out what to do with them both. If they had the DH spot for Alonso, sure, but for now they don’t.

Rick C: Again here you brought up the flaw of adding catcher framing to WAR. I would be curious how you reconcile this with the incorporation of other advanced defensive metrics into WAR that have only existed since the early 2000’s.
Keith Law: Because we have reasonable proxies for defensive value for previous eras. That’s a bad analogy.

J: 80’s Aerosmith vs
80’s Motley Crue
Keith Law: Blech. Crue started to go downhill after Too Fast for Love. I don’t think Aerosmith did anything good after the ’70s, though.

Slippery Pete: The Luzardo news makes me sad. Should I cling to the silver lining that it makes it easier for Oakland to navigate his innings limit this year?
Keith Law: Depends on whether his rotator cuff is just sore or actually screwed up.

Mike: The Giants have kept Bart in major league camp a long time. Is there anything to read into that or does it mean anything?
Keith Law: No, teams need extra catchers anyway.

MattB: Whenever I read your work, I always wish there were more people out there like you. People who were broadly curious and interested in the world. Thanks for everything!
Keith Law: Well that’s a very kind comment, thank you. I have always been a curious person, even as a kid. I feel kind of lucky that it never faded.

CH: How would you handle Mets catching situation? Think I’d go Ramos and Mesoraco
Keith Law: Seems like a good plan to me.

Jake L.: If you were given 400+ MIL, what would your 1st purchase be? Would you like to be seen as “rich and irrelevant”?
Keith Law: Rich and irrelevant seems like a wonderful fate to me. Granted, Mr. Trout has to work for that money, but I’d be plotting my retirement in Italy.

Graig: Is Ryan O’Hearn anything? Good numbers last year, seems to have the starting job, but I assume (being a regular reader of yours) I would’ve heard more about him by now
Keith Law: I think he can repeat what he did last year, or something close. Makes hard contact. Poor defender.

Drew: I’ve been struggling with anxiety recently, and reading your Stigma Fighters piece helped me regain equilibrium after trying to go off my SSRIs. I wanted to thank you for your openness in discussing your own mental health, and to ask whether you’ve ever tried the Headspace app for meditation.
Keith Law: Only briefly although my therapist has recommended it. I don’t meditate nearly often enough.

Brodie Van Jump on the Bandwagon: Keith– are you surprised how well Pete Alonso has hit (i.e., more than just HRs) this spring? Also very impressed how Dom Smith has done (don’t know if you saw the piece that he is using a CPAP machine for better sleep, so that is having a + impact.) The Mets say they may carry both. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I am not surprised by how well/poorly any player has done in spring training because it means nothing.

Kevin : Do you think the anti-vax people that attack you on Twitter are actual real people or from a troll factory?
Keith Law: Both. Some are bots. Some are parents whose children are neuroatypical (e.g., autistic) and have been unable to accept that their children are different, thus sending them to find someone to blame. They’re all dangerous to the rest of us, though.

alex: Os are having Mountcastle work at 1B as well as 3B this spring. Given his (lack of arm), would you have tried LF (I heard he has been or 2B) for him? Thanks
Keith Law: He is way too big for 2b. LF should work.

Kevin : Was there any other colleges besides Harvard you were considering?
Keith Law: I applied to 12, which is more to say my parents decided I would apply to 12 (bear in mind I was 16 at the time, hardly capable of deciding what to wear to school on any given day). Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Virginia, William and Mary, Georgetown, Colgate, Washington University, Cornell, Duke, Wesleyan, Johns Hopkins.
Keith Law: I ended up choosing between Harvard and William & Mary, which offered me some kind of scholarship and also seemed to offer a much better student experience. I would almost certainly have enjoyed W&M more, but I’m well aware what the Harvard name has done for me (and the privilege it affords me).

Jake L.: Is the Snell 15K pay raise really a “bad look,” considering he was sent down twice to AAA in 2017 because he was insanely inconsistent and inefficient and then it finally all clicked on for him in 2018?
Keith Law: No, it’s the damn system.

Danny: What charities do you give to?
Keith Law: My #1 charity has been the Food Bank of Delaware for the past several years. It’s direct help to people who need it. I just gave $500 to them last week out of my first advance payment for book number two, because they’re great and they’ve been building a new warehouse/facility. fbd.org.

Hunter Greene: Huge year for me this year. What level should I be pitching in by the end of the year?
Keith Law: Double-A would be great, but healthy is the most important thing.

Dan: What are your expectations on Joe Ross as he makes his full-season return from injury? On a similar note, any concern for Lance McCullers and his ability to keep that curve ball next year?
Keith Law: Considered Ross for the breakouts piece but couldn’t find a real reason for optimism beyond “I’ve always liked that guy.” And his stuff wasn’t as good last year when he did pitch. Concern on McCullers was/is ability to stay healthy with that arm action.

Mark: Have you ever eaten at any of Thomas Keller’s restaurants?
Keith Law: Only Bouchon Bakery which was great.

Jim: I can probably predict it, but any thoughts about the KY governor (guess which party) who took his (nine) kids to a “pox party”?
Keith Law: If you tolerate this, then your children will be next.

Todd: Still relatively high on Domingo Avevedo? It should be time for him to make it to the majors
Keith Law: Have I ever been high on him?

Frank: As a former resident of Arizona do you have anything to add to the general commentary that being president and attacking a deceased war veteran who served his country his entire life is about as classless and petty as someone can be?
Keith Law: Yes. Let him rant and attack. I had this thought the other day: If Warren ends up the Democratic candidate, and Trump spends months calling her “Pocahantas” and other slurs and just generally being awful, will it end up helping Warren by reminding anyone actually on the fence of the kind of person the President is?

Guest: Kirilloff seemed like a great pick in 17 when the Twins were able to get him with a mid round pick. Was the reason he was available that far into the round because he doesn’t play a premium position?
Keith Law: Yes, also a cold-weather kid, and not a premium tools/athlete. Always trepidation over bat-first HS position players.

Kyle KS: If you’re the Cardinals and your 4th starter is Wainwright and the battle for 5th starter is Gant, Gomber, Hudson, etc. you sign Keuchel right? Seems like if you’re going for it then you improve that back end rotation right?
Keith Law: (nods)

alex: Are you expecting any former top prospects to be DFA-ed as we get to opening day (because they are out of options)? If so, who is a great change of scenery candidate? thanks
Keith Law: Isn’t Swihart out of options? Not a DFA candidate but maybe a trade guy.

JP: why not start with a 2 batter minimum, instead of going straight to 3?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to this.

dave m: Seeing as Fully Present is your go to book for anxiety I assume you practice mindfulness. Did you have trouble at first applying the practice to your daily life? I’m struggling to figure it out. Thanks
Keith Law: I would say it took me a few years to get to the point where I could apply it in difficult situations – learning to stay present and not let the anxiety of a moment overwhelm me.

Johny: So Harvard was your safety school?
Keith Law: No that’s Yale.

Jake L.: In a conversation about Brandon Lowe, you said that stats like wRC+ really should not be used to evaluate prospects, what stats should be considered?
Keith Law: The problem with wRC+ is it rewards production in terms of present value, which is not quite what we want from prospects – we are considering future value, more than present. The first time I had a reader try to use a minor leaguer’s wRC+ to argue with me was for Chase Vallot, who posted a 138 wRC+ in just over a year in high-A … but with a 36% strikeout rate. I had seen Vallot a ton for Wilmington and knew he couldn’t hit decent pitching – but he beat up on bad pitching, of which there is enough in A-ball for a player to fatten up his stat line.

Jason: Jake Noll has had a fantastic Spring (.341/.426/.585) for the Nats. What are your views of him as a prospect?
Keith Law: Exactly what they were a month ago – not a prospect.

Brodie Van Jump on the Bandwagon: On your point about Trump and Warren, Trump is going to attack and belittle any candidate on the other side. He has literally jumped the shark and is a super-loose cannon. Whoever opposes him has to tactically use that to their advantage– bait him on occasion to show he’s off his rocker and then also show you can be compassionate, the adult in the room, and know your stuff (which he doesn’t.)
Keith Law: I agree, but I’m not sure every Dem candidate would know to do that, or be able to pull it off.

Kevin : Is it wrong for employers to have facial hair rules (like the Yankees)?
Keith Law: IMO, yes.

Austin: In a previous chat, you were skeptical of Garrett Hampson’s ability to hit in the majors because of his lack of power. Has anything you’ve seen in the Spring changed that at all?
Keith Law: No, because … wait for it … spring training stats are useless.

Jonathan: Mike Shawaryn a back of the rotation guy?
Keith Law: I think more likely a reliever but he has succeeded as a starter, with starter-level skills, so far.

Austin: Any thoughts on McMahon in Colorado?
Keith Law: I still like him but for whatever reason they don’t seem to want to commit to play him?

JP: ___% chance of a work stoppage after 2020
Keith Law: 31%.
Keith Law: I just made that number up but it’s not zero and it’s below 50%.

Austin: Any favorite among Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta?
Keith Law: Well one was in my breakouts column…

Kevin : In favor of shortening the season?
Keith Law: Strongly oppose.

Rick Sanchez : Lunatic goes on murderous rampage. Leadership bans assault rifles. Wait- we can do that??!
Keith Law: Amazing what can happen in a liberal democracy that isn’t overrun by corporate and PAC money.

scott: Do you think the NCAA will ever increase the number of baseball scholarships> and if so do you think we will see more of the top high school players choose college rather than the minors? Would that be good for baseball in general?
Keith Law: I’ve suggested this before, but MLB should fund more D1 scholarships, and in exchange demand better access for scouts at workouts, BP, and to players for predraft info gathering (interviews, psych tests, etc.), as well as mandatory pitch limits.

You Work is Appreciated: Just noticed recently no mention of Hjelle in your write up of SF system, though you had wrote about him predraft in decently positive terms. Just wanted to see if anything in particular kept him off your list for the giants.
Keith Law: He’s there. I just checked again after a brief moment of panic.

Dane: How do people who know/respect your insights enough that they follow you and/or come to your chats continue to ask you about how your opinion of a particular player has changed based on spring training stats? You give the same answer to that question EVERY SINGLE TIME you choose to answer it. Every single time.
Keith Law: Every year, too. It’s wishful thinking, really. I understand wanting your favorite team’s player to be better, but a couple of extra hard-hit balls in March don’t tell us anything.

CD: I know he is extremely young, but is Franco in the same class as a prospect as Acuna was?
Keith Law: Yes.

The Fonz: Has a player, manager, or GM ever admitted to you that he follows your chats?
Keith Law: All the time. Often because they like a joke or catch the song reference in the intro.

Ray: Why is everyone acting like someone getting Trump to act like a jerk will move the needle? He’s always been a jerk and his supporters love it. The only thing that will change 2020 is getting those who didn’t come out at all in 2016 to get out and vote.
Keith Law: Isn’t that a possible motivator, though?
Keith Law: I’d add to that getting people who voted third party in 2016 to vote blue. Every person who voted for Jill Crank’n Stein should be deeply ashamed.

JT: If I’m vaccinated and my children are vaccinated, are we safe from the spread of these diseases regardless of the essential oil crowd, or should I be more worried?
Keith Law: You should still be worried because the immune system, while a marvel of evolution, is still imperfect, and that you can still catch a vaccine preventable disease even if you’ve been vaccinated. Your odds of fighting it off are much, much higher, of course, but they are not zero, so pushing herd immunity – stopping the disease from spreading because enough people in a community have been vaccinated – is still extremely important.

Kevin : Is it a weird feeling being recognized in public?
Keith Law: It is, but readers who’ve recognized me have always been so nice that I have come to enjoy it. It’s also infrequent – it’s not like I’ve got people lined up outside this Cartel Coffee shop to take my picture or something. I’ve been recognized in some fun places, like in line at Disneyworld (twice!), by my server in a restaurant, by the manager in a different restaurant, on a rental car shuttle, etc.

Michael Conforto: Have you watched The Inventor? It must be my bubble but this story managed to fly right past me all these years.
Keith Law: Not yet, on my to watch list. I’m overwhelmed again – my daughter wants me to watch Doctor Who and I’ve watched all of one episode of the reboot (Christopher Ecceleston’s debut), plus a friend more or less ordered me to watch Catastrophe, and I want to watch The Inventor and another film on HBO this month, La Familia.

Brett: Will you get any reports on Southern Miss, any chance wallner will sneak into the teens?
Keith Law: Of the first round? I haven’t heard anything like that.

Hinkie: I know you liked Brandon McIlwaine as a HS player. Any chance he can get back to a top prospect now that he’s playing regularly at Cal. Is he a day two pick this June?
Keith Law: I’d buy day two. He’s hit OK so far but I don’t think cal has faced much good pitching.

Danny: Does it matter if you vote Jill Stein or third party in a safely blue state (NY or CA)?
Keith Law: She’s a raging anti-science crank. Anti-vax, anti-GMO, anti-glyphosate, etc. Hard no.

Tom C: It’s interesting remembering the various opinions that the Angels should trade Trout to build up the farm system, only now they have Trout forever and a budding farm system. Hooray for everything.
Keith Law: Yes, but they don’t have much pitching imminent. They will have to solve that problem next.

Brian: Ugh Corey Knebel heading to an elbow specialist with the Brewers very concerned. Do you think how the Brewers used their bullpen last year will have negative ramifications for this year? Jeffress is on the IL as well.
Keith Law: I’m not sure we know how to prevent relievers from getting hurt.

Kevin : Would you do away with the electoral college?
Keith Law: Of course.

Michael : What do you think of the Brewers adding all three of their young pitchers to the rotation? Good move, highly volatile?
Keith Law: I’m here for it. Teams can be a bit too risk-averse with prospects/rookies yet the Brewers have gone hard the other way, and I think it’s great.

Drew: I’m finally watching Brooklyn 99 and it is incredibly funny. Has Michael Schur become the GOAT in television productoin? his run of 4 shows is unbeatable IMO.
Keith Law: If only he understood the glory of hot fruit, he’d be the GOAT. Instead he’s just rich and irrelevant.
Keith Law: OK, I’ve got to get a few little things done before heading out to games this afternoon, so I’ll wrap this up here. Thank you all, as always, for reading and for all of your questions. I should be on schedule for a Thursday chat next week, after I’m home from AZ. Enjoy this last weekend of meaningless baseball!

I have a new draft blog post up, on Carter Stewart and Matt Allan, as well as a Grapefruit League scouting roundup, both for ESPN+ subscribers. My latest board game review for Paste covers Tiny Towns, a pattern-matching game with a clever twist that makes the game harder but faster.

Keith Law: You expose the film in me. Klawchat.

addoeh: Belated Pi Day greetings. What kind of hot fruit did you enjoy last night?
Keith Law: No hot fruit here, but we did have pizza.

SeanE: Legal issues aside, should the Pirates just put Kang at SS and live with the below average defense and (likely) above average offense?
Keith Law: Probably better to plug him in at 3b; don’t think he’d be even a 45 defender at short now given his age and injuries. (I wouldn’t roster him at all, though, because of his off-field issues.)

John: Hi Keith – big fan of your analysis. With it very unlikely Kimbrel is going to land a long term “Chapman-like” deal, would it behoove him to take a 1-year deal and hope the market improves next off season or take the longest term, most lucrative deal offered knowing that it might be his last big contract now heading north of 30 years old?
Keith Law: I’ve been sympathetic towards the players as a whole this offseason since I think it’s clear the owners are banking profits, but Kimbrel and his agent could not have misread the market any worse. He came off a down year by his own standards, was awful the last time we all saw him, and then asked for a contract that would have been the longest ever given to a reliever. Teams in that market spent their money elsewhere. If someone offers him two years now he should take it. Just maximize short-term earnings, knowing the long-term is always volatile for you as a pure reliever (with control questions now), and that the market’s future is very hard to predict.

Aaron C.: As someone who’s been in the industry, do you have any general insight as to how players *really* feel about these international games? Players always *say* they love it publicly, but I’ve always had a hard time believing these creatures of habit like their routines uprooted to play in Japan, England, etc.
Keith Law: I don’t think they like it from that standpoint – it’s exhausting to change time zones to that extent. But I do think they like the cultural aspect. Players are still people so I’m sure some love it because the latter is more important than the former. I happen to enjoy international travel – granted, I don’t have to roll off the plane on to the mound – so I view the physical toll as a cost I’m willing to bear to go experience another culture.

Jeff: So I’m at the Giants/A’s game in Scottsdale last week, and when Bumgarner was pitching, they had the radar gun off. It was on for all A’s, and for other Giants. Is this a team decision? a Bumgarner decision? A little bit of both. He didn’t look great, just wanted to see if this is common practice, since I have never seen it before.
Keith Law: Probably the team’s decision but I don’t know.

JR: Were you “on” the sailing team or crew team at Harvard?
Keith Law: I was not, although oddly enough, they invited me to try out as a coxswain simply because of my weight and size. (I had no interest.)

Rod: Do you see a 40-HR season for Acuña?
Keith Law: I do not.

Scott Upham: Does Kyle Tucker have anything to prove in AAA? Looks like he is ready for prime time to me.
Keith Law: I agree.

parlay: Austin Hays is having a strong spring for the Orioles- hitting to all fields again, and several XBH. Should we toss out 2018 because of the injuries and jump back on his 2017 hype train?
Keith Law: Don’t toss 2018 out entirely, but consider weighting it less than you would for most players. He was a back-end top 100 guy after 2017, and i think if you project average regular for him you’ll be in a good spot.

Jim: What are you thoughts on the rules changes MLB is tinkering with? If you’ve written that up, apologies in advance and shoot me a link 🙂
Keith Law: There were a lot, so maybe ask me about specific ones if you’re curious. The one that I liked the most was capping commercial breaks in between innings; now get rid of commercial breaks for pitching changes and we’re really cooking. I’m also glad we’re not seeing a pitch clock, and dismayed that MLB is pushing the 3-batter minimum rule through without the union’s consent.

Jscott022: Of the young pitchers who have a chance to crack the braves opening day rotation (Wright, Touki, Wilson, Fried) which two would you take to follow Newcomb, Gaussman, and Teheran?
Keith Law: I’d put Wilson, Touki, and Fried in the rotation and bounce Teheran.

JR: Which team surprises the most this year and is way better than preseason projections?
Keith Law: I’ll do a predictions column in two weeks.

Mark: What happens if teams wont let their pitchers throw from 2 feet back citing injury concerns? Obviously, the league can just say throw like its a normal distance, but I feel like this wasn’t thought out very well.
Keith Law: I think that rule change is 100% likely to cause injuries.
Keith Law: Like, just don’t. It’s a stupid idea. I’d rather they lower the mound if anything.

James: New pizza/pasta place called Fellow in old town Scottsdale area (Giants) might be worth checking out
Keith Law: Thank you, it’s on my to-do list because the menu was designed by Claudio Urcioli (Pa’ La, ex-Noble Eatery).

Josh: Standard small sample/spring training caveats aside, I’m in a mad scramble to buy back my Austin Hays stock. Super impressed with his bat speed and defensive range. What say you?
Keith Law: Defensive range? No.

Jack: Is Luzardo ready to be a major-leaguer right now?
Keith Law: In what role? To simply be on a major league staff, yes. To be a league-average starter, I’d say less than a 50% chance of that right this minute.

Scott Upham: As a Detroit Tigers fan, it seems like Christian Stewart and Daz Cameron will contribute in 2019 but do they have any budding superstar position players in their entire system?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Joel: Keith, I finally was able to watch the movie Detroit. It was unbelievably hard to watch, although I thought it was outstanding. Your thoughts?
Keith Law: Never saw/not interested based on reviews.

Julian: Hunter Barco a top 20 pick with improved strength and arm angle?
Keith Law: Not impossible but I think unlikely.

John: Have you seen/heard of any improvement in Chris Paddacks curveball?
Keith Law: No. I don’t think it will ever improve in a significant way.

Dale: So AZ spring training is far far superior to FL spring training. Baseball, weather, food, girls, driving distance to all the parks. Wouldn’t you agree ?
Keith Law: Yes. I like how you slipped “girls” in there as if that’s a major criterion, by the way. But weather, food, proximity, access to non-baseball culture are all there.

Jim: Mostly i was concerned about the 3 batter min… seems like using an AX for a scalpel problem
Keith Law: I would agree. Why not a two-batter minimum?

Thomas: Would you have the same career right now if you had gone to Arizona State instead of Harvard?
Keith Law: It seems unlikely. There is no doubt that having the two schools I attended on my resume has helped me in my professional life and career. That’s why this scandal is a big deal, IMO.

Dale: So a guy on the Royals is starting opening day that I’ve never heard of. Their weak division might be the o my thing to save them from being all time bad.
Keith Law: I think it’s amazing that a rule 5 pick (you’re talking about Brad Keller, I assume) is their Opening Day starter in his second year. I don’t think he’s as good as his 2018 ERA implies, but that’s a solid find in the usually barren rule 5 draft.

Will: With the new 3-batter rule, will teams now consider grooming some would-be starter prospects into middle inning guys?
Keith Law: That’s already happening. More likely that potential LHR in the draft get hurt, unless they show a weapon for RHB.

Julian: When will your next draft projection be?
Keith Law: If you mean a ranking, like the one I just did, probably in mid-April. I won’t project the first round until May because I have always maintained that anything before that cannot be sufficiently sourced.

Steve: General scouting question for you — can seeing a player in one game dramatically change your opinion of them? Say you came in thinking someone had 40 power but then you see them in their first game of the season hit a dinger 425 feet. Does that happen often where what you thought you were going to see one thing and it’s a totally different player?
Keith Law: Sort of? But maybe not for power. Velocity comes to mind, or even just seeing a pitch I didn’t think a guy had before.
Keith Law: Or just seeing that someone’s body is really different.

Thomas: Hypothetically speaking, if you have an OF with three all-stars and then a young stud in waiting like Eloy, couldn’t you just keep him on the 40 man for years until the stars aren’t as good? Thinking the old FL outfield with Stanton, Yelich and Ozuna, there wouldn’t have been any room for an Eloy.
Keith Law: I think the player would have a grievance after some extended period in AAA where, presumably, he’s demolishing the league.

Jim: Do you see the Yankees grabbing another SP with the latest Severino news?
Keith Law: I would absolutely support them signing Gio.
Keith Law: Will they? I don’t know. But I think he fits.

Justin: Can Dakota Hudson eventually be a league average starter? Or do you think he is bullpen bound? Sounds like STL prefers him over Gant for the 5th starter role.
Keith Law: Pen guy for me. Limited history of staying healthy, very reliant on that cutter.

Dale: Did you see Jeters comments saying paraphrase: “many Fans come to the game and leave the stadium not even knowing or remembering who won”
Keith Law: I did. That’s probably true for me, but I don’t attend games as a fan.

PhillyJake: Cole Tucker arrival in the majors?
Keith Law: Could debut this year but I don’t see impact.

Gus: Hello KLaw, The one new rule that I don’t understand the most from either management or the union side is why limit rosters after September 1? Isn’t it the best interest of the clubs to give as many minor league players possible exposure to the MLB environment?
Keith Law: They haven’t been calling up many guys for years now. I would have liked a limit a bit higher, maybe 30-32, but nobody was calling up the entire 40-man roster like they did in the 1980s. Too much expense and particularly risk if the player came up and got hurt in September or in major-league camp the following March.

Scott C: Donaldson was a worthwhile move, but could you have imagined a worse offseason for the Braves? What are they doing?
Keith Law: Standing pat and betting on internal improvements. Not a terrible strategy, but I think there was some low-hanging fruit in free agency they could have chased.

Scott Upham: Tampa’s injury recovering Jose DeLeon was once one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. What is the best outcome for him now?
Keith Law: He was a solid prospect, not one of the tops; I think there’s league-average starter potential, but it will depend on how his fastball plays. There was some concern it was a little light for him as a starter.

section 34: Which pitchers historically would have been hurt the most by the 3-batter rule? Jesse Orosco came to mind immediately but he could pitch to righties until the very end.
Keith Law: Tony Fossas.

Mac: How much does Vaughn have to hit to justify being picked ahead of Witt Jr or Abrams? Does he have to be the best hitting 1B in baseball for 5+ years?
Keith Law: There’s an implicit assumption there about Witt Jr/Abrams that I’m not sure we entirely agree on, but you omit the other benefit Vaughn might offer: proximity. He’s in the majors in 12-18 months. Maybe sooner if he’s really this good right now. (I’ll see him in a week.) A win today is worth more than a win in five years to contending clubs – and, I believe, in the trade market.

Pat D: I’m trying to eat better and lose weight. I need to broaden my horizons in terms of what I eat, and therefore need to learn to cook better. Are there any dishes you can recommend that are either way
Keith Law: Center your meals on the plants, not the proteins. I think the American diet has always started with the question of what meat we were cooking, and then what sides go with that (steak, therefore potatoes and something green). Instead, start with vegetable dishes and work ‘inward.’ Ottolenghi’s Simple and Hugh Acheson’s The Broad Fork are great vegetable (but not strictly vegetarian) cookbooks.

Mark: Have you heard anything on Corbin Carroll this year yet?
Keith Law: He was in my draft ranking two weeks ago.

Bob Pollard: Saw data in a couple of tweets yesterday that one-batter pitcher appearances are declining. If that’s the case, then why get rid of them?
Keith Law: Eyewash.

JD: I know he’s only 24, but after three identical years do we know what Nomar Mazara has? Or do you still think there’s more to come?
Keith Law: There is more potential there. The probability of him getting to it has declined, but it is still there. A few of my breakout candidates from 2018 didn’t break out but I would double down on them, including him and Giolito, for 2019.

Brendan: Hey Keith, have you read Field of Dreams? I just found out the film was based on a book and was curious if it’s worth picking up. Thanks!
Keith Law: I haven’t. I don’t read much baseball stuff – reading is a hobby and a sort of meditation for me, so I want something different.

Jim: Do you attend a regular boardgaming group? Any games that work well on the road for you? (solo or otherwise). I travel a bit for work and carry a few sometimes.
Keith Law: I co-host a family game night at my local library, and I’ve played with some readers in the area a few times, and joined Bill Baer (NBC Sports, and a total pinko commie)’s game group a couple of times too. (That’s the only time I’ve played 7 Wonders with 7 people. Still great, but so different from the 3-5 player experience.) I often bring One Night Ultimate Werewolf on trips because it’s portable and quick. Jaipur is a great, portable two-player game. The Mind is always in my scouting bag these days to.

steve: I would think that service time issues would be less important for a pitcher. Do teams reflect that when the consider young pitchers in big leagues
Keith Law: A reader mentioned this around Paddack yesterday and I disagreed with him, saying I didn’t think manipulating a pitcher’s service time (especially one with a TJ already on his dossier) was worth doing because nobody can reasonably project a pitcher’s performance and health seven years out. That is just being too clever by half. There is a reason not to promote a pitcher too soon, which is that he might get hurt, as Michael Kopech did, and cost you a year of service and salary. (I say that having argued for Kopech’s promotion last summer. It didn’t work out.)

Steve: Wander Franco or Willie Adames more likely to move to 3B eventually?
Keith Law: Adames for me.

Mac: I know you said you only scout the top of the draft but when you’re at an amateur game do you only bear down on the guy you’re there to see or do you watch other guys who may be later round picks?
Keith Law: If they’re notable. I mentioned a 2020 guy in my draft post this week because he played against Matt Allan.

JD: I’ve always suspected that Manfred’s pace-of-play push is motivated less by a belief that fans care, and more because shorter games are more profitable for business reasons (concentrating ad revenue opportunities, higher carriage fees because it doesn’t crowd out other programming, who knows). Is that an unfair suspicion? If not, what’s the mechanism that actually makes shorter games more profitable?
Keith Law: I have had this suspicion too – would shrinking ad inventory mean higher prices for the inventory that remains? Does viewership decline with game length beyond some threshold? I lack the data to evaluate those suspicions though.

TP: Any good reasons why Texas wouldn’t just let Willie Calhoun play everyday?
Keith Law: Where?

John: I know you’ve answered the question a 1000 times about working in MLB and your reasons re: family, flexibility etc. are obviously very important and reasonable.

Are there times when you’re evaluating prospects though and feel like this isn’t for real? That you’re scouting but not getting any action from your work product?
Keith Law: I may not quite follow the question, but the ‘action’ i get is from you guys. You read, and you pay to read. What more could I possibly ask for? There’s no gratification for a writer like knowing your work is read and valued.

Tommy Fresh: with all the new All Star festivities this year with the election and stuff – will MLB bring in Entertainment 720 to run the show
Keith Law: Pawnee to Cleveland isn’t too bad of a drive.

Ed: If Elvis Luciano pitches like hot garbage this year, is it still worth keeping him on the Jays roster for future potential? What is 1 spot on the 25-man roster worth to a non-playoff bound team?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s worth doing. Not only is it a dead roster spot, now he doesn’t develop, and he makes more money next year, and there’s the risk he blows out and gets all that salary and service time, and stays on your 40-man, and so on.

Del : Where do you see Dom Smith’s in May: Mets 1st Base, AAA, another team?
Keith Law: Mets 1b.

Rod: Sean Newcomb ever gonna get the walks under control?
Keith Law: I have asked the question of “how” for a while now and I don’t have or hear a good answer.

addoeh: From your last newsletter (insert link to sign-up here), you talked about teams quickly sending up very young players to advanced levels to trick other teams models. Are there teams that will exclusively pick HS seniors and JuCo freshman late in draft to fill-out rosters instead of college seniors to get more opportunities?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard any of that, probably because the HS seniors would ask for more money to sign.

Layne: Recently bought Patchwork after reading your review. Great game. Any 2-player games coming up later this year that you’re eagerly anticipating?
Keith Law: Not off the top of my head but I am always listening. I have Wingspan (1-4 players) here to review, and Solenia (I think also 1-4). I know Corinth, an Yspahan reimplementation as a roll-and-write game, is coming soon, and the original had a solid 2-player variant. But nothing strictly two-player that I’ve heard about just yet.

Scott Upham: Bo Bichette is showing off all his tools in spring training. Other than service time, is there any reason he shouldn’t be the Jays starting SS on Opening Day?
Keith Law: He’s not a good shortstop.

Tim: Any thoughts on Anderson Espinoza return from TJ?
Keith Law: No. Haven’t seen him. Minor league games start today for all 30 clubs, I believe.

JD: I’ve found Splendor to be a great portable game — the whole thing fits in a quart plastic bag, and can be taught in two minutes.
Keith Law: Yes, very good call. Also plays well with two. Carcassonne is also very portable.

Bob Pollard: Sorry, I don’t understand the eyewash comment. Are you saying the data is wrong or MLB is trying to fix a problem that doesn’t exist? Or neither?
Keith Law: Eyewash refers to a solution without a problem, or something you do for perceived value rather than actual value.

Paul Dolan: Do you believe me when I say my team is losing money every year and has lost a lot in the last few years?
Keith Law: I don’t, and even so, your franchise value is appreciating, but that’s not reflected on the income or cash flow statements that you don’t issue to the public.

Geoff: Do you know anything about Trejyn Fletcher who’s now gonna be draft eligible this year as opposed to 2020?
Keith Law: He’s not draft eligible this year, not yet at least. It is possible he will be. He’s a prospect with some questions about the hit tool and a strong commitment to vanderbilt.

Tom: Any thoughts on Ketel Marte playing CF?
Keith Law: If it’s him or Adam Jones, I’ll try Marte. Good athlete, but experience helps in CF.

Tom: Is there any chance that Mountcastle can play a decent 2B, since the issue seems to be his arm, or is he a 1B / COF only?
Keith Law: Cannot see that body and build in the middle of the field.

Confused: This week while visiting my in-laws, my father-in-law–who is a great dad to my wife and grandfather to my child–called Aladdin Jasmine’s “Towelhead” boyfriend. He was quickly reprimanded by his wife, but doesn’t change the fact it happened. How do I reconcile these two polar opposites? It’s extremely troubling, especially as my daughter gets older and Fox News is constantly on the TV…
Keith Law: Harder since it’s not your dad, but consider talking to him about watching his tongue in front of your child. I have had a somewhat similar issue and asked someone to refrain from saying certain things in front of my daughter. It was an uncomfortable conversation but it resolved the issue.

Mike: Amed Rosario look primed for a breakout?
Keith Law: I would like to say yes, but i think he’s still putting the ball on the ground too much.

Lyle: Mariners starting catcher in 2022: 1) Omar Narvaez, 2) Cal Raleigh, 3) Not in system.
Keith Law: Mostly likely 3 but Raleigh is good.

ffballmaster: Have you ever “discovered” a guy? Like went to look at one player scouts told you to look out for and then found another you put on the scouts’ radar?
Keith Law: No, because I don’t go see amateur players unless scouts have already directed me there.

Beetlejuice: Is the service time issue only relevant to players players with a clear path to Major League ABs? Seems easy to imagine a scenario where a player is blocked by an incumbent, held down in AAA so he can get regular ABs, but it’s still unfair to the player from a $$ standpoint because he’s ready to contribute at the major league level. A fix for this problem should be factored into next CBA too, no?
Keith Law: Not sure how you’d fix that, unfortunately. A player who’s blocked by a legitimate major league option is temporarily out of luck.

Ethan: Did you read the story I sent you on Twitter this morning regarding the shootings? I appreciated the like, but just wondering if you actually read it.
Keith Law: Of course, I don’t hit Like if I don’t read and like the story attached.

Mike: Is Logan Davidson a top 10 pick?
Keith Law: Today, absolutely not.

Nick: You see Austin Hays 440 foot shot to dead center?! Think he starts the year in Baltimore?
Keith Law: Gabe Gross led spring training with 8 homers one year.

Bruce: In all fairness, you can’t pay players in Franchise Value, much like you can’t pay athletes in tuition credits.
Keith Law: No, but you can borrow against it, or sell equity, if you’re actually that strapped for cash.

finny: What are the chances at this point that Dane Dunning actually doesn’t have to have TJ surgery? He was hurt last fall, he’s hurt again, and he’s visiting Dr. James Andrews. Isn’t TJ just an inevitability?
Keith Law: I’d like to be wrong but it feels like it.

MJ: Do you think Bryse Wilson can make the opening day rotation, and if so what kind of season do you project for him?
Keith Law: Too many guys ahead of him but I think he could do it. Slider looked better when I saw him Tuesday and he fills the zone.

Brandon J: Aside from taking three years off his age, what does Tony Gonsolin need to do this year to reach or surpass the lofty standing of his fellow Dodgers’ prospect Dustin May
Keith Law: He’s not catching May for potential. He’s plenty good on his own, though. Three legitimately above-average pitches. Good athlete. Heck of a pick by the Dodgers.

Andie: Is tanking for higher draft picks as big of a concern in MLB as it is in the NBA? Are there discussions / conversations about how to minimize / eradicate it?
Keith Law: Less of a concern specifically – as in, teams do not tank specifically for higher draft (and international) position. It’s more like a fringe benefit to deciding you’re not going to spend money to chase after your 71st win. Part of that philosophy was to play your own prospects or hunt for value on waivers/minor league free agents, but not every non-competitive team is doing that second part, and then you get tanking.
Keith Law: Also, I’m good with changing the top of the draft to eliminate any incentive to lose more games. The only reason the team with the worst record picks first is because we’ve always done it that way.

Jordan: Starting to go through your top 100 novels list, will there be an update sometime? Thanks!
Keith Law: I would really like to – it’s on the list of things I’d like to do on the dish. I did get the Philly restaurants list posted, so that was an accomplishment.

Hank: Jesse Winker. Can he add some power to his elite on-base skills?
Keith Law: I think that park helps him more than it will most players.

Nick: Any idea who has registered the highest exit velocity since it’s been tracked?
Keith Law: Judge, right?

KC: What can a healthy Jorge Soler still be for the Royals?
Keith Law: Above-average regular in RF.

Mick: Are you surprised how well Tulo is playing short? Looks like he’s locked in to start there with the Yanks.
Keith Law: It’s spring training. Nothing surprises me, and almost none of it matters.

Ryan V.: Have you had a chance to play Root’s Riverfolk expansion yet? I just saw that Leder Games has a second expansion in the works, but have not yet managed to try out Riverfolk, and am curious to know how the expansions affect the game’s experience…
Keith Law: I haven’t – I rarely play expansions since I’m always trying new games.

Kevin : Weird question…my mom (who is 69) and I are aligned politically (both despise republicans). However, she is very religious…me not so much. The other day her church had a speaker in about evolution vs creationism etc. This guy was going through the earth is only 18,000 years old routine. Mom and I had an argument about it (I even gave her bill nyes book)…how would you handle this?
Keith Law: Nice. I might try sources who try to reconcile or at least don’t try to divide science and faith – really, I think most religious people accept that the earth is 4 billion years old. Young Earth Creationists are dumb, but they’re also a minority.

Kevin : Are you going to arod/jlo wedding?
Keith Law: I assume my invitation is in the mail.

Mike: If you were a GM, would you want your player impeding in the HR derby’s? A lot of money for the player if they win, but seems to mess up swings.
Keith Law: It doesn’t mess up swings – that’s a myth. Let the kids play.

Tom C: Brendan: the book for Field of Dreams is called “Shoeless Joe”. It’s a worthwhile read, but it’s also pretty different than the movie.
Keith Law: Thanks.

Michael Conforto: The Mets should absolutely upgrade from Vargas to Keuchel right?
Keith Law: Yes but they won’t.

Ryan: Do you have any ideas what players the Dbacks are targeting in the draft? If its too early for that, what do you think their strategy should be? Thank you!
Keith Law: Too early. Take the best players available, which may entail moving a little money around to grab some first-rounders who fall, since the Dbacks have several extra picks.

DF: Re. the Reds. If they are out of it in July, do you see a chance to recoup similar value to what they gave up with Puig, Wood, etc.?
Keith Law: Zero chance.

mike sixel: Could use a top 100 movies list……
Keith Law: Someone asked that in the comments recently … I feel like I have too many gaps in my own movie-watching history that I couldn’t do a credible list.

Uli Jon: Started “Lincoln in the Bardo”. I like experimental but almost gave up on it. Now I’m all in and I think it might be genius. Thanks for the recommendation.
Keith Law: Similar reaction – at the start I thought it might be a gimmick, but it’s brilliant.

Ron: Hi Keith-did you check out, Kiriloff, Lewis or Javier at all? Any chance to?
Keith Law: I linked to my ST notes above. I did not go to the west side of Florida at all.

Scott: Have you seen/read Girl on a Train and if so what were your impressions?
Keith Law: No. Not sure I’ve heard of that.

Andy: Who does taking away the August waiver trading period help? Like, who was pushing for that? I would think that some players, especially those nearing the end of contracts, would WANT to go to playoff teams. GMs want to turn their Gios into an A ball reliever with a small chance. Owners want to save small amounts of money if their season isn’t going well. Why was that one of the changes that one side wanted?
Keith Law: I’m not sure but I wondered if players disliked the disruption to their own lives of late-season trades.

Jake Lawson: So…Wil Myers in center and Mike Moustakas at second. Are either of them likely to be even passable at these positions?
Keith Law: Moustakas probably not. Myers hell no.

Todd: In all seriousness, how much is Fox News to blame for our current mess?
Keith Law: A lot. More than people wish to acknowledge. Maybe it’s time to ask establishments you frequent that have televisions going all the time to turn it off.

Rick Sanchez: When do you think Hiura hits the majors?
Keith Law: July.

Adam: Love the chats Keith, thanks for taking the time to do them. With Sano’s latest injury, it’s hard for this Twins fan to see any reason that he’ll be successful consistently long term. Do you think he’ll ever put it together?
Keith Law: For stretches, at least. Lot of hitting ability and raw power, with an idea at the plate.

Imre: Just wanted to pop in and proudly say we got out 4 year old daughter her latest round of vaccinations yesterday!
Keith Law: Excellent news. Most of us are sane. If we convince another tiny sliver of the population to join us in vaccinating our kids, many or most of these outbreaks will stop.

Kevin : I asked my employer to stop playing Michael Jackson on the intercom…small step but hopefully more follow suit.
Keith Law: I’m actually surprised that more outlets haven’t just quietly shelved his music.

SeanE: Would you say the same about CNN? They clearly have bias the other way. Not sure there is objective media anymore….at least in national politics.
Keith Law: AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH oh that is fucking hilarious.

Todd: The democratic nominee in 2020 is…….?
Keith Law: Dunno but I’m voting for them.

Tom: How would you resolve service time manipulation?
Keith Law: You can’t, right? You can make it harder, and you can make it less lucrative/valuable, but you can never truly stop it.
Keith Law: Paying minor leaguers more would help. I’ve seen proposals for tying free agency to total time in pro ball, minors + majors, and for tying it to age. Each proposal has benefits over the status quo and will also disadvantage certain players.

Geoff: Gritty 2020?
Keith Law: Oh hell yes.

Johnny Lecherous: Happy Friday, KLaw. Last week someone asked if 2007 #5 overall draft pick Matt Wieters was a bust. Checking the 50 top 5 picks in the decade from 1997-2006, the average career total was 15-16 WAR — compared to just under 20 for Wieters. (That’s Baseball-Reference WAR, for what it’s worth.) So that very cursory study would claim that Wieters was more or less a typical outcome. Sadly.
Keith Law: But he wasn’t a typical #5 pick. He was #1 or #2 in the draft – I had him at 1, I think BA had him at 2 (They were right) – on most boards. I certainly never heard anyone tell me at the time that he was flawed. He slipped to 5 because teams 2-4 didn’t want to meet his bonus demands.

SeanE: So CNN is right down the middle. You have been spending too much time on the beach in Arizona….oh wait….
Keith Law: Strawman, and I haven’t lived in Arizona since 2013. Take the L, Seane.

Kevin : Is trump worse than you thought he would be…I had extremely low expectations in November of 2016 but somehow he has been even worse.
Keith Law: He’s what I feared. The federal government is slashing science budgets and programs left and right and no one even notices because we’re too busy reacting to him lighting something else on fire.

Ridley Kemp: Speaking of musicians who are best left forgotten: Michael Jackson and R. Kelly are being removed from playlists, but Ted Nugent the Rolling Stones, and The Mamas and The Papas get a pass. Any idea why there would be a different standard?
Keith Law: Timing? Those revelations (and crimes) were longer ago.

Thomas: David Bowie had a teenage relationship, e.g. statutory rape. Should he not be played either?
Keith Law: I can’t tell you where to draw that line for yourself. You should at least ask yourself the question on Bowie and his contemporaries who engaged in similar behavior. I don’t love relativistic approaches to judging such crimes, but I could not agree that Bowie is in the Kelly/Jackson category.

Kevin : who even likes Ted Nugent?
Keith Law: I have never actually met a Ted Nugent fan. I used to really like that style of faux-metal, too, but never liked any of his songs.

Corey: Draft idea, versions of which i’ve seen elsewhere: 1st five picks are the 1st five non-playoff teams, then the rest in the normal order. Incentivizes teams to win
Keith Law: Yep, that’s one I’ve heard and like. Or a lottery. Or take the top N picks and make them a sort of controlled free agency – teams in that range can submit bids on players, who then go to the highest bidders in that group, and then from picks N+1 forward it’s a draft again.

Andy: Add Led Zeppelin to the list of bands who were lucky their scandals happened before the current time frame.
Keith Law: There are some ugly stories with them, if I remember correctly. Motley Crue too, surprising exactly nobody.

Tim: Should any person (even low income blue collar workers) who are guilty of domestic violence be fired and never hired again or does that just apply to MLB players?
Keith Law: MLB players are public figures hired to represent a franchise and perform for (and often spend time with) children in particular. If you can’t see that difference, I can’t help you.

Blake: You (correctly) said Harper would sign with whoever paid him the most. Do you think any players go for fit/location over money? I remember Dawson supposedly told the Cubs he’d play for whatever number they wanted.
Keith Law: Dawson said that to challenge collusion. Some players near the end of their careers will do that – Kerry Wood comes to mind. But peak free agents do not.

JD: Speaking of slashing science budgets, have you read Michael Lewis’s “The Fifth Risk”? Short, demoralizing read about our current government that doubles as a paean to devoted civil servants and the unheralded jobs government takes on.
Keith Law: I won’t for that reason. I’m sure it’s excellent.

Chris: At this point Gio probably couldnt even start a game til mid April at the absolute earliest, so is the idea for the Yanks’ going after him as insurance for Severino being out longer than the first month? Otherwise they could be fine w a month of Cessa/German, no?
Keith Law: He’s depth for the whole year, though. Someone else will get hurt or need some time off. I doubt CC makes 30 starts, for example.

Tom: How did you figure out your red meat allergy/sensitivity? I am going through some issues myself and am wondering if you know about a test that I don’t. A full elimination diet is pretty difficult with a FT job and 2 kids under 3. Hoping for an easier path…
Keith Law: We knew we had the inborn error of metabolism from when my daughter was born and then they tested me and found I had it too. (It’s autosomal recessive, so she got one defective gene from me and one from mom, but I also have two defective genes, and the one I gave my daughter was apparently unique. We were very popular around the hospital for a few days.) My daughter pieced together the “eat beef = feel like crap” connection, although to be honest I was just in denial.

mike sixel: I am all for a controlled FA type “draft”. The teams that don’t make the playoffs get $X to sign 1-3 players, say, for a week or two. Then there is the regular draft, or a new FA where the amount you can spend on one player is capped. Players can choose if team or money is more important. Teams can choose to put more eggs in 1-2 baskets, or spread their risk.
Keith Law: Right? And then the top draft kids might get something closer to market value.
Keith Law: There are really only 2-5 such players in any draft class anyway. They get screwed.

Kevin : People always bring up cutting regulations as why they like trump, but is that a good thing? I mean at some point I like clean water/air plus we cannot have companies like Boeing self regulate.
Keith Law: Right – people who say they want fewer regulations probably don’t mean they want zero safety checks on our food supply (which was never something the USDA etc did well anyway).

adambulldog: Do arb-eligible players receive MLB compensation if they are optioned to the minors?
Keith Law: Depends on their contracts. If they went to arbitration they will get their major-league salary. You can be arb-eligible but accept a split deal if, say, you were non-tendered.

Blake: Any advice on getting someone (teen) to participate in therapy when they really don’t want to? We’ve been through 7-8 therapists so far, tried meds, nothing works.
Keith Law: I wish I had a good answer other than try to find a therapist your teen likes on a personal level, so that therapy becomes like a conversation.

Mike: How fucked up do you have to be to come to a baseball writer’s chat and try to write a gotcha question defending men who engage in violence against women?
Keith Law: Every week.

Henry: Are owners required to report revenue reports to MLB every year? If so, can’t the Union sue as part of the freedom of information act to determine if there is free agency collusion, or an effort to maximize owner profit?
Keith Law: FOIA covers information from government agencies. Doesn’t apply here. The union could demand such information in the CBA but the owners wouldn’t agree to it.

Rick Sanchez: Do you think Wander Franco makes a Soto-like splash in the majors next year as a teenager?
Keith Law: 2020, maybe, but not this year.

Kevin : On average how many questions do you get in these chats?
Keith Law: It’s many hundreds. I don’t have a quick way to count but there are over 330 of you with this chat open right now even though we’re 72 minutes in.
Keith Law: That’s all for me – I have some errands to run and then a weekend at home before I head to Arizona. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions! Look for more scouting posts next week as well as my annual breakouts column.

Keith Law: Today it’s just a place where we meet. Klawchat.

The Fonz: Kimbrel ends up in Atlanta?
Keith Law: I tweeted over the weekend that I heard he was farther down the road towards a deal with Washington. That’s the last info I have (and I haven’t sought more … that just came to me). BTW, let’s chill with the Kimbrel as future-Hall-of-Famer talk. His agent misread the market, and now the player is paying the price for that. Overstating the player’s ability or career doesn’t help.

addoeh: What anti-vaxxers don’t realize is that snake oil sales is a very lucrative business. “Dr’s” Sears and Mercola, Alex Jones, the guy who owns N*****l N**s, and the rest have made a ton of money peddling essential oils, elephant extract elixirs, and other crap they sell.
Keith Law: Yep. It’s a weird, unholy alliance between these mountebanks, parents who need someone to blame for their children’s neuroatypicality, and religious cult members. They can all believe what they want, but if you want to send your kids to school, you need to get them vaccinated.

PhillyJake: Neil Huntington has made the contention that, had he signed a high price free agent, the salary differential could cause a jealousy in the clubhouse, with one player being paid a huge percentage of overall salary. Any thoughts on this type of thinking?
Keith Law: I understand his point, but don’t quite agree. One, if the team wins, every player stands a chance to make more money. Two, the other solution to that is to … sign two players at high prices?

CH: If the Mets have a rough start, an absolute fire sale of their pitching would make sense, right? Get as many good young players for Thor and deGrom as possible?
Keith Law: Yes, especially with that very, very tough division, but I don’t foresee them doing so.

Sam: I’ve been reading the Ringer’s series on the Reds’ scouting reports, and it got me thinking about how scouting has changed over the years. What do you think are the biggest changes you’ve seen in your scouting process or the league’s process as a whole?
Keith Law: Many things – I spoke to Ben about some that may appear in part 3 (that’s not up yet, I think). Scouting reports themselves have changed. Scouts are expected to be more literate in analytical basics, to be better able to provide information R&D can use, to look more at things that we think matter and less at things that we don’t. BTW, one subject I have not seen anywhere was whether the leaking of those reports violated trade secret laws or anything the leaker signed.

JaKob : Hey Keith, how do you see the Brewers 5th spot shaking out between Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta?
Keith Law: I would be very surprised if Woodruff and Burnes don’t both get 20+ starts this year.

JP: Keith – Thanks for the chats and the insider system reviews were great, by the way. I know spring training stats mean diddly, but have you had any looks at anyone or heard reports of anything that jumps out at you?
Keith Law: I haven’t headed to spring training yet – I’ll go Saturday for the first trip. I tend to ignore info from the first week or two, since the stats mean nothing and people react more to how players look (like, best shape of his life stuff) than how they play.

Ron: Hi Keith-Thanks for all your work on prospects and all your baseball write-ups. You and Buster are the only reason I subscribe to Insider. Would it make sense for Minnesota to offer a 1 or 2 year deal to Keuchel if he would take it, or just let that horse leave the barn?
Keith Law: Yes, unless there’s something so drastic in his medicals that they’re uncomfortable even at two years.
Keith Law: The Twins are good. They’re certainly at a point where investing further in the 2019 team is likely to have a positive ROI.

Dean G.: Klaw! My man! Whats good fam? Do you think Chris Paddack makes the Padres rotation early in the year?
Keith Law: Yes.

JaKob : Does Duplantier make the rotation this year for the Dbacks? It appears some injuries would have to happen for that to occur.. What about someone like Jose Suarez for the Angels? Do either of those guys help the big league team if there is no starters role in 2019?
Keith Law: Both probably don’t see the rotation until the second half if at all.

Long Dong Silver: What are your thoughts on Carlos Martinez… this dude is so frustrating… seems like he has the pure talent to be great, but neither the mental durability or “want to” to become an upper echelon pitcher. Would appreciate your thoughts, thanks Keith!
Keith Law: Nice reference in your username. Amazing how a man facing credible accusations of sexual harassment has been allowed to shape US judicial policy for almost 30 years now. I don’t think Martinez lacks “mental durability” or “want to.” He’s a smaller guy who throws hard and gets hurt.

Rodney: No question today, just want to say I’ve enjoyed following you on instagram! I think it’s a good format for you!
Keith Law: thanks! trying different things there since IG is poorly suited to baseball content.

The Dude: My film turned 21 yesterday. Ever seen it?
Keith Law: Did you just ask if I’ve seen The Big Lebowski? Obviously you’re not a golfer.

Moe Mentum: Whose presumed Phillies roster spot did the Bryce Harper signing most likely affect – Altherr, Quinn, or Williams?
Keith Law: Has to be Williams, who went from probable starter to bench guy/trade bait.

Jarrod: Hello Mr. Law, is Ryan Pressly one of the more under rated RPs in the game?
Keith Law: Don’t know how to answer that. Underrated how/by whom? He’s good, a good example of how very progressive teams like Houston target players they think they can improve through R&D-based coaching, but they also gave up two decent prospects to get him.

Nick: What have you heard about Eastlake’s Keoni Cavaco?
Keith Law: Nothing. I only cover top draft prospects at that level.

Bighen: Not that it’s some huge battle but should Mets actually be rooting for Dom Smith to come away with 1B job this spring? Better D, maybe better overall approach at the plate, obviously less power
Keith Law: Yes and also there’s risk he loses any trade value if he has to go back to AAA, whereas Alonso could return to AAA for a couple of months without anyone really batting an eye (pun intended).

Dana: Any book recommendations off the top of your head for somebody who likes Tolstoy, Proust, Stendhal, Dostoyevsky, Balzac and Hugo?
Keith Law: My go-to rec for literary fiction is always Bulgakov’s The Master and Margarita. Bleak House, Middlemarch, The Return of the Native, The Good Soldier all come to mind. But also branch out into some stuff from outside the western canon – how about Ngugi wa’Thiongo’s Wizard of the Crow, GGM’s One Hundred Years of Solitude, Rushdie’s Midnight’s Children (not a favorite of mine, but still a book of great literary merit), or Saramago’s Blindness?

JR: Do you ever go into reading “slumps”? I used to read pretty consistently and have fallen out of the habit of doing so. If you do, how do you work through it?
Keith Law: I do, and I try to read something I know I’ll love – a Nero Wolfe novel, or an Agatha Christie book, or something similarly light and fun.

Mark: Keith, will you be in AZ the weekend of the 15th-16th?
Keith Law: Nope, I’ll be home between trips.

Moe Mentum: Please rank by likelihood of eventual Cooperstown enshrinement: Beltre, Cano, Donaldson, Pedroia, Tulowitzki, Utley
Keith Law: Beltre is a no-doubter. Cano will probably get there. Utley will be on the bubble. The others are not.

Ryan: 13 years seems like a long time for a player that has only played more than 150 games twice. He is always hurt and is a horrible defender. I would imagine by year 5 of this contract the Phillies will be dreading this decision. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Not always hurt, and not a horrible defender until last year, which Mike Petriello showed was probably not predictive.

Daniel L: Is it service time manipulation to keep Tatis Jr down in AAA?
Keith Law: No. He has less than a full season of games above low-A.

JR: Dustin Peterson hitting very well in tigers camp. chances he makes breaks camp with the big club?
Keith Law: Great guy for them to give a shot.

Jake: I love your baseball analysis, but on a different note, can you tell me why you liked Roma so much? I thought it was unique, but really slow and just ok, certainly not best picture worthy.
Keith Law: Great story, amazing cinematography and sound. The only other BP nominee that was close in my opinion was The Favourite. Of course, White Savior won. I wonder if some voters skipped Roma because it’s not in English.

Daniel L: Paddack’s curve seems better so far this spring no?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: Wishful thinking.

eric: Keith,

Just how far under the radar is Dylan Carlson? Big bodied kid, switch hitter and will be one of the youngest players in his league this year.

I’m guessing he will see a jump in power leaving the FSL.

Is it far fetched to see him ascend into the top 100 by midseason?
Keith Law: He’s not under the radar at all.

Cole: Do you trust David Fletcher as the everyday 2B for the Angels, or should they have tried to find someone in free agency?
Keith Law: No, utility guy.

Yu: Do you think Yu gets back to being Yu or is he 2018 Yu? What says you?
Keith Law: Think he’ll get back to his usual self now that he’s healthy.

Roger: Which wild pitcher has the best chance of having a career as a starter between Luis Medina, Jorge Guzman and Alec Hansen?
Keith Law: Medina. Most likely none of them, but Medina is at least healthy and his delivery works.

Roger: It seems that you are the high man on Oscar Mercado. Does he take one of the starting OF spots out of camp?
Keith Law: It wouldn’t be a bad move for them, but I don’t try to handicap who’ll win Opening Day jobs.

Dan: Have you listed to The Black Keys new single?
Keith Law: No, not really a big fan. All their stuff sounds the same to me.

Roger: What do you think attributed to Alex Faedo’s velo dip last year? Is it something that could return to normal this year?
Keith Law: He never really threw that hard in college. It was a bad first-round pick.

Billy: The importance of vaccinations clearly shouldn’t even be an debate. So should we be concerned about the immunization records of illegal aliens? How do we ensure they are (or become) properly immunized?
Keith Law: By making it much, much easier for people to immigrate here legally. They’re coming whether we like it or not, so let’s formalize the process, so that everyone entering the country can, say, show proof of immunization (or just get immunized on the spot), or allow us to conduct background checks for any history of violent crimes.

Zac: You are firmly against giving Luke Heimlich any publicity, but Jeff Passan recently reported accounts think he could be an MLB pitcher, have you guys talked about not giving him any publicity?
Keith Law: Jeff works with me, not for me.

Alex Anthopoulos: I was wise to stand pat with trades because not enough teams are willing to trade now, but likely will by mid season. Fair?
Keith Law: Eh. I don’t think i agree with the premise. That said, Atlanta didn’t have any obvious weak spots either.

Mike: In your Cubs writeup you wrote that Brennan Davis needs to improve his pitch recognition but a 14% BB rate as a raw 2 sport guy shows some polish
Keith Law: Walk rate – especially in complex ball – is not any indicator of pitch recognition.

Mac: I get Bobby Witt’s age somewhat matters now but projecting him out will it matter when he’s 23? 25? 30? Seems to be a lot of overthinking at the top of the draft.
Keith Law: It affects his long-term projection. You’re glossing over the empirical evidence we have that HS position player projections are affected by age on draft day. Also, there are real swing and miss concerns with him.

Beep: Andrew Vaughn. Defensively, any chance he could play the OF? 3B? If relegated to 1B, what kind of defensive potential does he have there?
Keith Law: 1B only. Anything else is wishful thinking.

Alan: Too early for draft intel? Anything on the White Sox at #3?
Keith Law: Way too early. Try me in about six weeks.

JC: Kimbrel would have a team by now if his agent wasn’t trying to convince teams his 2018 & 2016 didn’t exist & price accordingly
Keith Law: Agreed. Also, the last time we saw the guy pitch he couldn’t throw a strike, and his manager used a starter to close out the last game.

Dan: Serious, maybe ignorant question. As a white male who is raising two young boys, what can I do as a father to make sure my children grow up in a completely tolerant, non-privileged way?
Keith Law: You can’t. That’s an unattainable goal. You can raise them to be kind to others, and you can avoid raising them to think ill of those who are different, and as they get older you can point out to them that not all the kids had the same advantages they’ve had. But you can’t make perfect children; nobody can.

Osiris : Do you see DJ Peters playing any kind of significant role for the Dodgers in 2019?
Keith Law: No. I’m not sure he will ever play a significant role for them.

rufreshterp: Is it AT ALL POSSIBLE that you’ve confused Luis Garcia for Yasel Antuna, which would then help explain why you seem to have absolutely no regard for Luis Garcia?
Keith Law: Fuck off.
Keith Law: Really, if you came here to my site to insult me, then leave.

Mark: Do fans really care about the length of games?
Keith Law: I don’t think so; I think that they care about dead time during games – but perhaps that’s because *I* care about dead time during games.

Poke: Any chance Adley could slip to the White Sox at #3?
Keith Law: Any chance, sure. Would I bet on it? No. Seems like he is the safest bet for 1 right now, assuming he doesn’t get hurt (he is a catcher, after all). If the Orioles decided to take Vaughn for his otherworldly hitting performance, l would then guess Adley goes 2.

Jerry: Do you think there are still people who legitimately believe in lower taxes, less regulation, “freedom” of religion, etc? I used to give the benefit of the doubt to my conservative/Republican acquaintances. After living in NE Texas throughout the Obama and Trump years (I lived in Houston before) I am convinced that it was all a cover for people to legitimize their bigotry and racism. I can’t believe how naïve I was all of these years.
Keith Law: I do. There is a real, longstanding school within economics that argues, with some evidence, that lower taxes and less regulation lead to greater economic growth (probably) and thus to greater prosperity for all (that’s becoming less true, if it ever was). I also think that idea works better for countries trying to rapidly industrialize, like Estonia after independence, than a country like ours that is already developed and now trying to support a large and aging population.

Zihuatanejo: With Kershaw looking tenuous, should the Dodgers consider signing Keuchel? Any chance they do?
Keith Law: I was thinking Gio for them.

Zihuatanejo: I see anti-vax, climate change denial, flat-earthers, and similar nonsense as symptoms of a larger problem — the mindset of “I probably know more about this subject than the professionals who study it for a living.” When and how do you think this arose? Was it created by Internet culture, or did the Internet merely enable these people?
Keith Law: The Internet allowed those people to find other deniers and thus cement their views. Denialism goes back centuries. They’re just louder now.

JR: What was your thoughts on the Leaving Neverland doc?
Keith Law: I posted that here yesterday – it’s the post before this one.

Mark: I find that people tend to gravitate to the sort of pizza they grew up with. If i remember the pizza of your youth was Little Vincent’s which seems to be a far cry from the pizza you favor today. Was there a particular pizza that reshaped your taste buds ?
Keith Law: That was near where I grew up but not the specific pizzeria we frequented most often. I first had real Neapolitan pizza on my first trip to Europe during college and it was love at first bite.

Craig R.: Does the young man you tweeted about yesterday for the 2020 draft, Zac Veen have a chance to go 1st overall next year?
Keith Law: Way too soon for that. Impressive prospect, though. He’s at Spruce Creek – I believe I said Spring Creek in the tweet and that was a mistake.

I7LITE: The Rangers are years away from contention and just gave a bunch of guaranteed money to a closer with one good season. Shouldn’t they be dealing guys like Leclerc, Gallo, Mazara, and anyone else with more than a year of service time, rather than extending them?
Keith Law: That assumes the market will give them fair value for such players. Two corner bats, one of whom still hasn’t performed up to expectations, the other is Rob Deer reincarnated, and a reliever with one good year under his belt are not exactly highly valuable assets right now.

Joe: Do you think the Braves scouting approach will change much going from Bridges to Brown?
Keith Law: I do not. I do think Anthopoulos will have a hand in draft strategy, albeit not in specific picks.

Bob from Accounting: Your take on “tampering” as it was so overtly executed by Bryce the other day? Seems to be an outdated concept that exists solely for the sake of posterity, but I can see where the team holding the target of the tamper would get bent out of shape.
Keith Law: Didn’t see any issue with Harper saying he’d like to play with the best player in baseball who happens to be from the area where Harper plays now.

Don: I’m worried about Kyle Tucker. I expected him to rake in spring training but he’s been pretty mediocre. Are you still high on him?
Keith Law: He’s 5 for 19.

Doug: Enjoyed chatting with you and do highly recommend the Smithsonian Documentary on The Green Book. What is Griffin Canning’s ceiling for the Halos?
Keith Law: If you ignore the health questions he had out of UCLA, #2-3 starter.

Joe: Thoughts on the Hicks extension? Not a lot of money, but seems like Hicks is hurt quite a bit (including now).
Keith Law: Yes but even missing a little time a year he’s extremely valuable, and a full year of him is going to be worth much more than he’s paid.

WhiteSoxAndy: Do the White Sox still have a bright future after this epic failure of an offseason or am I doomed to watch crap for quite some time?
Keith Law: Was it a failure? I don’t see that. I’m sure you wish they’d landed one of the two big fish, but both players signed large, lucrative deals, and I wouldn’t want the White Sox to start trading prospects yet since the major league team isn’t contending yet and their system is still shallow.

Cartoons Plural : Allen Webster fulfilling the hype that he once had or SSS?
Keith Law: Can we make NSS a thing? No Sample Size?

Frank: I’m going to new orleans for the first time this summer, so you have any recommendations for good BBQ places? Thanks.
Keith Law: I don’t think I’ve ever had Q in New Orleans. I’ve had the local dish called barbecue shrimp, which isn’t smoked or even grilled, but is shrimp baked/braised in butter. (It’s good.) I haven’t been in years but usually when I’m there I eat gumbo and fried shellfish.

Ty: I need some hope as a Tigers fan… Do you view Mize as a future ace or more of a 2/3? Does he realistically get called up to Detroit this year?
Keith Law: Future ace.

Mike: Angels pitchers have openly criticized Scioscia’s hindrance of progressive pitch coaching. Should we expect measurable performance increases, or is this just excitement about a new boss?
Keith Law: No, I think they’ll be better overall. I criticize Ausmus when he errs – okay, he does that a lot – but my understanding is that the Angels hired him to implement this new information/style of development.
Keith Law: Also, he’s so handsome.

Jerry: Will there be a work stoppage in ’21? Do the players have any chance of prevailing? Why do “fans” take the owners side in these disputes?
Keith Law: My bet now is yes.

Aaron (Houston): Klaw, follow up to twitter question about duck recipe. I baught a whole duck and am looking for your recommendation on roasting a whole duck.
Keith Law: Yes, I remember that – I actually don’t cook it whole. I break it down into two legs and two breasts. You can braise the legs and then just sear the breasts; Ruhlman’s Twenty has recipes for both. I have a sous vide machine and use that for the breasts, then just finish with a quick sear, so they stay medium-rare.

MikeM: Thoughts on Severino’s rotator cuff tendonitis? Does it portend future issues or is this just a one time thing?
Keith Law: We don’t have enough information to say.

Adam: When in spring training is the lack of velocity a concern? Saw Kenley was down to 89 mph the other day. Fulmer was at 91. both said they will be good by the end of March..
Keith Law: If someone’s velocity is still off in the final week, I get concerned. If I see someone live and his effort is higher but the velocity is lower, that might be a concern too.

Nick: Fastest rising “pop up guy” you’ve seen in your scouting tenure?
Keith Law: Benintendi.

VG Jr: Am I a top 5 hitter when I step on the field after service time manipulation?
Keith Law: No, I’d take the under on that.

Nick: Best 2 prospects you’ve seen on one team (h.s or college)? Feel like Trevor Bauer and Gerrit Cole have to be up there
Keith Law: Tough to top that – 1st pick and 3rd. At one point, Harvard-Westlake HS had seniors Luc Giolito and Max Fried and sophomore 3b/rhp Jack Flaherty.

Thomas: Best shows you’ve watched on Netflix?
Keith Law: Haven’t watched many shows at all but Russian Doll was +++.

Todd: Gleyer and Andujar regress at all this season?
Keith Law: I’m not expecting that, especially not from Gleyber.

Nino from The Money Team: Giolito seems to sitting back up in the mid-90s but is still all over the place – are the Sox still undoing a lot of the damage the Nats inflicted upon him or is this what he is and will be?
Keith Law: MLB says he’s thrown 75% of his pitches for strikes this spring. Also, it’s March 7th.

Nick: What country could you see being the next hot bed for international talent that isn’t high on the radar now?
Keith Law: Brazil. South Africa. Uganda has had some very good little league teams the last few years; I heard from a scout who went there with MLB that there were players there who could go to junior college here, which is utterly astounding when you consider its baseball isolation and lack of history with the sport.
Keith Law: Of course India and China are easy guesses … with 1 billion people each there must be some kid there who can run 3.97 down the line or throw 95 mph, just without any baseball skills.

Danny: Not a judgment comment- actual earnest question from a Yankees fan- do you think Cano will get in with the PED suspension?
Keith Law: Yes, by that point so many of the older voters will have stopped voting, lost their badges, or passed away that PED suspensions will be seen as a minor ding but not a disqualification.

Mike: what is the defensive outlook for Tyler O’Neill, looking like he will get serious playing time this year
Keith Law: Below average defender.

Pat D: Hi, Keith. No question, just a comment. We had to put down our dog yesterday. Pretty shitty day, obviously. But I was at least able to take some entertainment and get a few laughs from seeing you excoriate those idiots on Twitter last night. Please don’t ever change and don’t ever stick to baseball. Thanks!
Keith Law: Oh man, I’m sorry to hear that. Very painful to lose a beloved pet.

Nick: How many teams are still heavily working in Venezuela? Seems like employees could really be at risk with current events.
Keith Law: Maybe 6 to 8?

Thomas: Not a Harper hater by any stretch – the guy has talent and he plays hard. I just can’t believe a guy who’s been worth 1.5 WAR or less in 3 of his 7 seasons just got a $330M contract.
Keith Law: Except Fangraphs has him worth quite a bit more, so your premise doesn’t hold.

Ben: Thoughts on the moving-back-the-mound experiment?
Keith Law: Oh hell no, Karen.

JC: Klaw, thanks for another chat. I am as frustrated as anyone about the rule for bringing up players, but is there any reason the players union would make this a top priority? The union has only seemed to care about the stars and not the rank and file. Is there a way to connect this issue to the interests of current players so they would fight for it. Kris Bryant seems to be the only one preaching about it.
Keith Law: Bryant talking about it will help – the union’s motivation is that such players would get to free agency (or even arbitration) faster and, because they’re likely to be premium players, push the upper bounds even further when they get there. Harper and Machado got to the majors at 19, and both just hit the top end of the all-time salary scale as free agents. That’s good for the union as a whole.

Rick: Oops – hit enter by accident before. Anyhow, maybe I’m in the minority and I couldn’t appreciate the “art” of it all, but I thought Roma was horrid to the point where I couldn’t even finish watching it. Not that I was a fan of Green Book but those calling it the worst BP winner in recent memory apparently didn’t see last year’s winner which may be the worst movie ever made. I’d rather suffer through another Avengers movie with my 7 year old than watch that garbage.
Keith Law: The Shape of Water was the worst movie ever made? Wow. I didn’t have it at 1 – that was The Florida Project, which didn’t get a nomination – but I thought it was good, beautifully shot, with a dumb antagonist, and a great lead performance by Hawkins.

Eric: My 3 yr old son loves cooking with me and my wife. When did you get your daughter involved in cooking with you, how did you keep her interested and what tasks are best as they are this young?
Keith Law: At 3 she was just sort of standing nearby, making kneading dough or something simple like that. Now when she wants to help she can man the stove – she’ll do anything but cut or chop, really.

Danny: Do you listen to the Arctic Monkeys and if so, what albums would you recommend?
Keith Law: Yes. Whatever You Say I Am … and AM are my favorites.

Adam: What have you seen in Braxton Davidson? Anything stand out that he needs to change? Power and recognition seem to be positives.
Keith Law: Recognition is a negative. Also seen velocity eat him up in the zone.

Jared: Do you think Jimmy Nelson can get back to his 2017 form?
Keith Law: I do not have any inside info on him at all, but I would generally bet against guys who have shoulder surgery regaining their old form. A few will, the majority will not.

Mike: I have been trying to make the point to some friends on the right that we are already have socialism in our country in that we are not pure capitalist by definition. Programs like unemployment insurance, social security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc. are by definition socialist policies. In a pure capitalist society it’s every man for himself. Why doesn’t the left stand up to the nonsense political messaging the right is clearly setting up for the 2020 campaign?
Keith Law: We are not pure capitalist – no country is – and nobody in the popular sphere is proposing pure socialism. People are proposing a stronger social safety net, which does not require any government ownership of industry. But if you say “socialism” 30% of the country will use the flag as a loincloth and vote for you.

Steve L.: Why can’t both parties admit that what Omar has stated is anti-Semitic yet there is an underlying point that is worth discussing? Or is this just grandstanding to each parties base?
Keith Law: What she stated was not anti-Semitic; what she stated was anti-Netanyahu, and perhaps anti-Israel, but Israel the nation-state is not Judaism the faith.

Dylan: Guy I know told me with a 100 percent straight face that he doesn’t get the flu shot because it gives him the flu. Instead, the vaccinate himself against the flu, he eats expired leftover meats, which helps his immune system. I kind of just backed away slowly to avoid whatever super germs he was carrying. I know people are scared of the big science words that are in vaccines but this was a new level of bonkers.
Keith Law: Yeah, he’s not very bright.

Mac: Will you be seeing Priester this spring? If so, he’s only going 1-2 innings until May. (EDIT: This is inaccurate.)
Keith Law: He’s on the list of guys I’d like to see, but I was unlikely to see him until late April or early May because it’s cold.

Tom: Would you put Jake Lamb or Christian Walker at first this year?
Keith Law: Lamb. Never thought of Walker as anything more than a bench piece.

Stats: wRC+ or OPS+?
Keith Law: wRC+ is better, in my opinion.

Daniel: Can we not call people illegal aliens? I mean many of these people are asylum seekers fleeing violence that is in a large part due to US Foreign Policy.
Keith Law: The term is meant to demean them by ‘othering’ these immigrants – they’re not humans, they’re aliens! Just like in that Genesis video. (Don’t watch it. Really.)

Chris: Hi Keith, what can we expect from Jack Flaherty this year? He struck out a ton of guys last year and has looked good this spring (though that can mean nothing) but can we expect him to really take a step forward on his peripheral stats?
Keith Law: I may have missed a step here – is there an expectation he’ll take a step forward? I think last year was great, kind of what I thought he’d be a year or two down the road, so I’m not projecting improvement.

Jon: Keith, thoughts on Cabello please? I’m reading a 55 hit tool with 50 PWR and 60 SPD, but not sure I’m sold on that. Thank you.
Keith Law: Happy to try to answer questions like this but if the surname is common I need a first name.

Tony: Klaw, no question but just wanted to say that in 2018 I cancelled all my subs in an effort to see what I really needed. Here we are in March 2019 and the only one I’ve gone back to is ESPN+ to read your work. So tell your boss you’re more valuable than Netflix or Amazon Prime to at least one person. Thank you!
Keith Law: Wait till you see my one-man rendition of In Search of Lost Time.
Keith Law: (Two Proust references in one Klawchat!)

Matt: RE: Jerry’s question about small government, free market conservatives – we still exist, we just are no longer republicans. Socially we have long agreed with the democrats. Now, everything we disagreed with the democrats doing economically the republicans are championing.
Keith Law: Very fair. I voted Republican for a while because of such issues, and because I didn’t care enough about social policies. I care more about those now – as I should have all along – and as you said, the GOP no longer stands for small government, lower taxes, or transparency, and they stand for reducing regulations without regard to societal costs and benefits.

SEC Guy: so trading picks is (mostly) not allowed, but could Baltimore accept cash considerations (or even a player) from KC to pass on a guy? Say for example KC offers Baltimore Yefri Del Rosario to pass on Adley (setting aside whether this is a good deal). Could Baltimore send the trade to the commissioner’s office as “for future considerations” and effectively trade one draft spot like that?
Keith Law: Illegal. Good way to get smacked like Atlanta did.

Jonathan: Chances on Jarrett Parker cracking the Angels’ roster? Career 112 wRC+ (in 382 PAs) and his approach this spring has been great (7 BBs and opp-approach with power).
Keith Law: Gotta flag you twice for bad use of wRC+. His career figure is badly skewed by a tiny sample in 2015 where he hit 6 homers in 52 PA; since then his wRC+ is under 100, in most of his career sample. And his limited major league time has also been skewed by platooning – he’s a LHB who’s faced LHP only about 20% of his PA. On top of that, who cares what he’s done in ten spring training games?

Cartoons Plural : Aaron Boone said that he’s not going to start the season with 2 1B bc he’ll have a 3 man bench, why haven’t they already cut bait with Ellsbury and Bird?
Keith Law: Ellsbury isn’t his call – that’s the GM’s. Bird they may just cut at the end of spring training if Voit is the 1b and they can’t find a trade target for Bird (some bad team without a DH should take a shot at him).

Tom: Assuming the D-backs get reasonably good value out of their many early draft picks this year, where could their org ranking end up in 2020? Top 5?
Keith Law: Top 5 is fair.

PhillyJake: Whole Duck: Spatchecock, indirect heat, pan with water underneath the duck to catch fat. Any standard sauce will work.
Keith Law: Interesting. I would assume this would overcook the breasts.

Adam: Any thoughts on the final season of Thrones?
Keith Law: Yes, glad it’s ending so I don’t have to hear about it any more. I hated the first book and never watched the show.

Ytics: I live among Reds fans, and I’ve never seen a group of people so hyped for the possibility of an 80-82 season. A colleague told me “if (8 or 9 separate things) break right, we could be .500 this year!” Makes me wish they’d traded Senzel and Trammell for Kluber. It’d be the baseball equivalent of blowing your savings on a coked-up weekend in Vegas.
Keith Law: Was it worth trading two valuable prospects to LA in pursuit of that goal? I don’t think so.

Cartoons Plural : Jasson Dominguez has gotten Wander Franco-level hype, have you any thoughts on the future Yankees prospect?
Keith Law: If he’s getting that kind of hype it’s not warranted. But I haven’t heard that either.

Mike: do you watch the NCAA basketball tournament (March Madness) and do you fill out a bracket?
Keith Law: No and no.

Matthew: He’s stagnated recently, but do you see a future everyday regular in Lucas Erceg?
Keith Law: Has the ability, but needs to make real adjustments to his approach. Discussed that in the Brewers org report.

Jeff: Are you planning on seeing Luis Robert next week? As a White Sox fan, I hope you’re not!
Keith Law: I’m going to try to see him when I get to Arizona and I expect he will be out with a pulled sphincter or something.

Brian: Can you explain why which position a player plays can impact their bat? I’ve read/heard numerous times that if a player moves to a different position it can impact his bat? I don’t quite understand why that would be the case. I love baseball but never played so I was curious why. Thanks!
Keith Law: Some positions require more work in-game and can lead to wear and tear; asking a player to play a new position, or one he plays poorly, can require more work pregame/between games so that he might be slightly more worn down when hitting.

Grant: Keith, have you ever thought about posting your reading activity on Goodreads? I’d be interested to see what you’re reading. I’m always looking to expand my TBR list.
Keith Law: I mention 90% of the books I read in my posts here – I end every book review with a note on what I’m reading next. I’m not giving my content to Goodreads for them to monetize.

Ryan: I have ESPN+ and The Athletic now. If I want to share something from there with a friend that doesn’t have it, is it okay for me to copy and paste? Also when a writer copies your write up of a prospect and shares it in their own article, is that legal even if they fully credit you?
Keith Law: Copying and pasting something of mine online, such as in a forum or on reddit, is both not okay and a copyright violation. Quoting me in part while discussing a player, or even just discussing my list/column, is fine, and as long as you link to me I appreciate it. I’m not worried about what people copy/paste into emails. Thank you for asking, though – I appreciate that you’ve thought about this.

P.J.: Rio Ruiz is getting good reviews in Orioles camp. He made one of your top 100 lists a few years back. Any chance he’s a late bloomer and an average player at 3B this season for the Birds?
Keith Law: I really doubt it. Hasn’t performed in the high minors at all. When he shines, though, he really shows you all he can.

WAR: Does this mean fWAR is better than rWAR? Is it just a preference, or are you just saying cherry-picking is bad? I believe the big difference between the two for position players is defense, but I’ve never been able to pick up on the industry’s preference.
Keith Law: Regarding Harper, that’s not what I was saying. I meant that when the two differ that much, you can’t cherrypick the worse of the two and wave it around like it’s definitive or even directionally correct.

Spencer: Related to some research I’ve been doing: if you have three players with identical 8 hit tools, how many HR’s should you expect in a full season if their respective power tools are a 2, 5, and 8?
Keith Law: This is too abstract to answer.

J: What is the one ridiculously overplayed classic rock song you NEVER tire of?
Keith Law: The truth is I’ve tired of just about all of them, but Boston’s “More Than a Feeling” has held up pretty well.

Phillies Prospects: Hi Keith – I am the one who asked you last week about people reposting your work. I am happy to make a comment in support, wanted to make sure this is the type of thing that would bother you.
Keith Law: Thank you, I just emailed the site in question.

Tucci Mane: Socialism involves the redistribution of the means of production to the workers, eliminating the non-working owners or investors. The social welfare state is public schools, social security, providing health insurance, etc. We should stop conflating the two things.
Keith Law: Exactly. We don’t teach this at all in school, though. HS economics classes don’t get into economic systems.

Thomas: Shouldn’t a best picture winner be something that can be broadly enjoyed like Black Panther?
Keith Law: No. Many great works of art can’t be “broadly enjoyed.”

Nick: Where have you had the best pasta in the US? Monteverde?
Keith Law: That would be the first name that came to mind. Also Rolf & Daughters, Republique, Barbuzzo, Osteria, and my kitchen.

Ben: I’ve not had the flu since I was a teen (30+ years). I’ve never had a flu shot. I minimize my exposure to others, and wash my hands multiple times a day. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Yeah, you’re lucky, and selfish too. Herd immunity requires more people to get immunized. And if you’re nearing 50, you are at greater risk of serious medical complications if you do get the flu.

Eric: I am Jewish, and have been super pro-Israel most of my life. Only until recently have I realized that defending Israel at all costs was super wrong and I was brainwashed into doing it. Criticizing Israel and AIPAC is definitely NOT antisemetic. Bibi has been absolutely awful, and doing absolutely horrific things to people of different faiths living in Israel. What Rep. Omar said was extremely on-point and not antisemetic. It was, in fact, important for her to point out. We need to stop equating defense of Israel as the only way you aren’t antisemetic. /rant
Keith Law: Thank you. Also, getting Bibi out – he’s in some serious hot water now over corruption charges – would make a huge difference in 1) how much we should support Israel the nation-state and 2) the chances of peace in the region.

Nick: Have you read The Corrections by Jonathan Franzen? I have really enjoyed it so far.
Keith Law: I didn’t care for it that much, mostly because I found the characters so unpleasant.

Chris: No question, but did you happen to hear the Jo Adell interview on “Angels recap podcast”? I was so impressed with his maturity and work ethic as a 19 year old. If he can improve his contact, I expect big things.
Keith Law: I didn’t, but that lines up with everything I’ve heard about him since he was signed.

MikeM: Bird has options left. Why would they cut him. He has no trade value. Stash him at AAA and see if he hits.
Keith Law: Sorry, that’s on me. I should have been more precise – I was thinking “cut” in a nonspecific way. But I do think that Bird has to be a DH, and the Yankees may be better served trading him now rather than burying him in AAA.

Bill: People cite Crash as the worst Oscar winner of recent memory (a well deserved nod) but I find Million Dollar Baby equally hideous…full of one-dimensional characters, manipulative scenes and hackneyed dialogue. Lifetime has done better work…do you have a recent winner that grates on you.
Keith Law: Other than Green Book, which is terrible, I’d say The Artist, which is a trifle and very self-serving (look how important movies are!). The best movie I saw in that cycle was A Separation, which won Best Foreign Language Film, and among BP nominees, Hugo and Midnight in Paris (yeah, I know) were clearly better than The Artist.

Elton: Is Mejia going to become a star in San Diego? Do you think he’s ready this year?
Keith Law: I think he’s ready, and if he stays at C he’s a star.

Chris: I think the guy above may have been asking about Antonio Cabello. Also, they will option Bird to AAA, no reason to cut him entirely, right? It’s not like he’s being blocked by Goldschmidt should things finally click.
Keith Law: That was my first guess – Cabello was my #9 prospect in the Yankees system, and I even had one exec suggest him as a top 100 guy, so yeah, he’s for real.

Andy: With Wieters entering the itinerant stage of his career, if he a disappointment? If you’re the Orioles, are you satisfied with the pick and the value he’s produced? The PECOTA projection skewed expectations, but is 8 years of a starting catcher good value?
Keith Law: Yeah, he’s a bust for a 5th overall pick.

james: how can I get your lists in canada. called espn and they said they can’t do nothing.
Keith Law: did you say signing back up through the VPN didn’t work? Even if you choose digital delivery of the magazine?

Elton: I will be embarking on Charterstone soon with my board gaming friends. Have you played any other legacy board games?
Keith Law: Only that and Pandemic Legacy. Charterstone is wonderful.

Jake: Who is more likely to make an impact in 2020: Vidal Brujan or Gavin Lux?
Keith Law: Lux is closer.

Ryan: How does J.J. Bleday compare to junior year Bryan Reynolds at Vanderbilt?
Keith Law: Bleday more polished, Reynolds more toolsy.

Ben: Do you think Charlotte, Nashville, or Raleigh would be the most viable MLB city?
Keith Law: Nashville of those three. Austin if we’re looking at any city.

PhillyJake: Adding my own $0.02 to the AIPAC discussion – Actually, scratch that. Read Thomas Friedman’s piece in yesterday’s NY Times. I can’t say it any better than he did. PS. Why did Jim Jordan get a pass for his racist reference to Steyer, replacing the S with a $ ? Yeah, I know it’s whataboutism. But there seems to be a double standard.
Keith Law: Of course there’s a double standard. Until the GOP suffers a resounding loss some November, it won’t change.

Dr. Lizardo: Keith, first of all, thanks for the chats and thanks for your postings on vaccinations. Opinion on Jesse Winker, does he make a few all-star teams before he is done?
Keith Law: I feel like he’s the kind of player who deserves to make some All-Star teams and never makes one because high-OBP middling-power LF types don’t make AS teams. But I’m a fan.
Keith Law: Good example of a guy I totally misread in HS. Saw him awful vs a bad prep LHP. Obviously not a tools guy so I didn’t have that as a fallback. Guy gets into pro ball and shows the plate discipline of an advanced 23-year-old. I reversed course right away but that’s still a mistake.

PhillyJake: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/06/opinion/israel-ilhan-omar.html
Keith Law: That link is Thomas Friedman, trying to make the case against Ilhan Omar, but in the process making the case for Ilhan Omar.

Jake: Your ESPN work is pretty firmly behind a paywall, which actually makes a subscription worth something. What about these sites where you get “10 Free Articles”? Do they not realize that either private browsing or clearing your cache is an easy way around this?
Keith Law: So many people won’t bother with workarounds that they likely find it’s effective enough.
Keith Law: OK, gotta move along … went overtime this week since chats the next few weeks may be intermittent as I travel for spring training. Thank you all as always for reading and for all of your questions – so many good ones, baseball and other, that I couldn’t get to this time. I’ll try to do another chat next Thursday as long as my flight is on time.

My review of the digital version of the board game Evolution is up at Ars Technica, and my review of the Kennerspiel des Jahres-winning game The Quacks of Quedlinburg is up at Paste.

Keith Law: Nature is a language – can’t you read? Klawchat.
Keith Law: (There’s your Obscure Music Quote.)

Arnold: Jays GM Ross Atkins says Vlad Jr. is not ready for the majors. He’s just trying to justify keeping him from being a Super 2 arbitration player right? He can’t be that stupid?
Keith Law: He’s not stupid, but he is too voluble. The less said, the better. Now, he’s denigrated his own player and insulted the intelligence of the fan base, to no benefit. They’re holding Vlad down to delay free agency (not Super 2 – I can’t imagine he’s in AAA *that* long), but can’t say so, so just say as little as possible.

TjF: If you were determined to get a deal done with Bryce and you felt like you had to do shorter term at high value (read: the Dodgers), would you be willing to give a 2 year opt out? Put another way – is it worth losing the pick to pay Bryce 40mm for 2 years?
Keith Law: Interesting idea, although I’d probably want to push the opt out at least one year further out, because he’s had some injury history, and I’d rather roll the dice on 2 healthy years in 3 than 2 in 2.

TjF: Is it me or does Vlad Jr look like he packed on a few extra this winter? I’m not judging, just seems like DH is going to happen sooner rather than later
Keith Law: I thought he looked as heavy as he did in the AFL, which would also point to a DH future.

Kid Koala: Your game reviews and thoughts on physical games are one of the reasons I love coming here. Just wondering if you’ve ever played Fortnite and what you think of it. Also about to be a parent and wonder about how to introduce screen games to a child. Any advice?
Keith Law: Glad you enjoy those reviews – I have not played Fortnite.

Jackson (Oakland, CA): Keith, the Cardinals advised Dakota Hudson that he should stretch out as a starter. Can you share what you believe he’ll need to work on to be effective in that role? Or would be be best suited for the bullpen, moving forward?
Keith Law: Between arm issues and lack of a good second pitch beyond the cutter, he seems better suited to the bullpen.

Oscar Madisbum: Judging from what you’e seen over the years, is it better for a team to use all your IFA money to sign one presumed 50+ player like Jasson Dominguez (supposedly going to the Yankees) or to spread the money around given how young these guys are? Thanks
Keith Law: I’d spread the money around. I haven’t seen Dominguez, but I’ve heard he’s the best player in the class but carries substantial risk factors.

Chris (Willow Spring, NC): Hi Keith – First of all, I love your minor league content, trade analysis, etc. it is the primary reason for my ESPN Insider subscription. Of the top Braves pitching prospects on the cusp of the majors, would any be best suited to a bullpen role?
Keith Law: I think any could go to the pen to develop/limit innings, but I’m not sure any would be better suited to relief than starting among the top tier. Maybe Soroka if he just can’t stay healthy in the rotation but it’s too soon for that.
Keith Law: FYI, this chat is brought to you by Trader Joe’s 73% Belgian Dark Chocolate Non-Pareils, by which I mean I bought them and am eating them while I chat.

Gavin: Regarding a nation minimum wage….do politicians really think a uniform national rate is practical? Do they not realize that it costs a lot more to live in San Francisco than it does in Rapid City? Shouldn’t this issue be one that is decided on a local level, where governments can determine a rate that meshes with the local cost of living? If the federal government is going to establish one national rate to get people in major cities to a living wage for menial work, I am moving to a small midwestern town to cook burgers at McD’s for $40 an hour.
Keith Law: Sure they realize that. Has anyone proposed a national minimum wage of $40/hour? That feels like a straw man. And nothing would stop San Francisco from mandating a higher minimum wage than the federal one. If you want to encourage people to work, it would seem that a higher wage would provide a strong incentive, no?

Tristan: Is Chris Paddack the Padres’ best starter at the end of 2019? Or do you think Lucchesi can get to another level with two pitches?
Keith Law: Paddack as the best starter in their rotation by 9/30? Sure, I’ll buy that. Don’t think Lucchesi has another level.

Nate in Seattle: Klaw, wondering your take on Marwin’s infield defense, which UZR doesn’t like. If he played 2b for a full season, would it rate as average or above average?
Keith Law: I’ll guess average but with the strong caveat that I can’t remember the last time I really watched him play 2b.
Keith Law: Or anywhere but the outfield, really.

Tristan: So it looks like Scott Kingery will start the season without a set position again. Do you think the Phils are messing with his potential by moving him around so much?
Keith Law: Yes, not a fan of doing that to young players.

TjF: Don’t want to discriminate guys based on size and handedness, but is someone really going to burn a top 5 draft pick on a 6 foot R/R first baseman?
Keith Law: Vaughn? His performance last year – against weak Pac 12 pitching – was remarkable, enough that I’m consistently hearing he’s a top 5 pick right now.

E-Rod: He might never be a 200 IP guy, but could Eduardo Rodriguez still develop into a #1 or #2 in your view? Still a lot of positives in the profile, he’s still young, and his arm’s never been hurt (even though the lower body has). Feels like he’s sometimes the forgotten man in that BoSox rotation…
Keith Law: Always been a fan. Must stay healthy, still hoping he’ll find a good enough slider to give him that missing element.

Aaron C.: People *very seriously* replying to you that the NFL uses “N/8” for ease of comparative measurement (re: Kyler Murray) makes me sad for, like, humanity.
Keith Law: If you can’t compare 3/8 and 1/2 in your head, how do you manage to get out of the house without garroting yourself on your own shoelaces?

Aaron C.: When you scout Arizona in the spring, do you (a) hit up all 15(?) camps; (b) only scout pre-determined list of players; (c) select the team/players based on good restaurant proximity?
Keith Law: Target players. Plenty of time to get from an afternoon game to a good restaurant.
Keith Law: BTW, Roland’s Market in Phoenix closed, rather suddenly, last week. Just some news for folks headed out there who might have wanted to visit based on my recommendations. It’s going to become a larger, second location of Pane Bianco.

Matt: If someone like Ben Shapiro or Candace Owens ever engaged you on a retweet or a comment you made regarding one of their posts or ‘thoughts’, would you engage them? With that in mind… has that ever happened to you?
Keith Law: It hasn’t, but the main reason I might demur would be the volume of replies I’d get from their adherents. I do use Twitter to communicate with all of you – well, some of you – and that might make it unusable.

Moe Mentum: Rank the following six retired 2nd basemen (primarily) in terms of their worthiness for Cooperstown: Bobby Grich, Jeff Kent, Willie Randolph, Chase Utley, Lou Whitaker, Frank White.
Keith Law: Whitaker, Grich, Utley, Randolph, Kent, White.

Moe Mentum: College tuition payments are an investment rather than an expense, right? But how should we measure the return on our investment? It’s not just starting salary upon graduation, but how else should (can?) we quantify the benefits, especially compared to other schools?
Keith Law: Are they an investment? I’m not sure the tuition for four years at a private university has a good enough ROI to quality. The tuition for the same degree at a public university might be the investment; the marginal cost of a typical private university would be an expense.

David: What is your opinion on the Francona’s son vs Kapler issue?
Keith Law: That is a personal matter and I don’t see how or why I would get involved.

Jesse B: How good of hitter was Michael Lorenzen coming out of college?
Keith Law: Not good at all.

John: Thoughts on Miles Mikolas extension?
Keith Law: Could be great if 2018 was real. Surprising commitment based on one year of performance, although his underlying numbers were all pretty positive.

Robert: Adley feels like a pretty solid #1 talent. Better than recent years but perhaps not generational. How do you think he stacks up talent wise to recent 1s?
Keith Law: I’ll see him in a few weeks, but I feel like he’s below the last couple of 1-1 picks.

Aaron C.: Previously, you’ve stated you’re “in” on Matt Chapman and “out” on Franklin Barreto from a growth/development standpoint. Standing pat on Matt Olson? Is this kind of…all there is? (Which is fine…I guess.)
Keith Law: He’s fine. Would be surprised if there’s more bat there, and I think his glove isn’t quite as good as his reputation.

Robert: Do you have any hope Quantril will see his stuff return? What if he ditched the breaker and became similar to Paddack if less command. Could he start?
Keith Law: Needs more stuff, period. Nothing like Paddack, unfortunately.

Jeremiah: Hey Keith…love your work. Where do you think the Padres start Tatis jr this year…double aa or triple aaa? Thx
Keith Law: Triple-A. Already has more than 4 months at AA.

JT: *Last year* was the delay in Vladdy’s service time. This year is cruel and unusual.
Keith Law: Agreed. He should have been up in May or at worst June. I said on the BBTN podcast today that if MLB had an incentive for noncontending teams to win now – such as better draft position, more international money, or increased revenue sharing – he would have been up.

DaveAlden53: In looking at prospect listings from various sources, there seems to be more variation between than in past years. I’m not going to ask why you’re higher or lower on particular players. (I’m married so don’t need any more snark.) But will instead ask whether you think increased data (launch angle, exit velo, spin rate), new focus on mechanical changes (DriveLine, etc.), and evolving analytical tools (DRC+, etc.) is causing a divergence of opinions.
Keith Law: Maybe? I use what the teams use, to the extent that I’m able. Never heard a team mention DRC+, for example, but spin rate, exit velo, extension come up quite often.

Robert: How far behind is Luis Campusano from a guy like Melendez?
Keith Law: I think I’d have Campusano ahead of Melendez. Did I rank them the other way somewhere?

Josh: Do you think the A’s will offer Kyler Murray an MLB contract over and above what he would get in the NFL Draft, like Rosenthal suggested? Seems like all of Murray’s actions have provided great leverage, but at the end of the day the money talks. If you offered him $35mm over 7 years, he’d bank that before theoretically hitting arbitration (4 option years and 3 pre-arb provided the CBA remains largely the same).
Keith Law: If I’m the A’s I just walk away. He’s not interested in baseball. Don’t throw good money after bad.

Jen Carroll: Keith – have you followed the rather precipitous fall of Mike Isabella’s empire? The Post did a pretty lurid look at his gross behavior that should be of no surprise to anyone who watched him on Top Chef (“no offense, but a girl shouldn’t beat me!”, even if she’s freakin’ Eric Ripert’s Chef de Cuisine, you tool?). But even with all that, I’m a little shocked at how quickly it all came tumbling down.
Keith Law: He just came to mind the other day when I saw a photo of some other past TC contestants – he’s completely vanished. Well-earned, though. So much toxic behavior in restaurant kitchens, likely more revelations to come.

Ken : when you worked for the BJays – did you and did you enjoy living in Toronto?
Keith Law: I never lived there, but spent a lot of time there and loved the city. Had moving cross-border been easier I would happily have moved.

Gabe: To be a major league regular, what type of line do you think Bobby Dalbec will need to produce? Will a 220/330/450 line get it done?
Keith Law: Don’t think that he gets there. That’s a very rosy OBP scenario.

TK: Another good reason you left Arizona: lawmakers last week advanced not one, not two but THREE bills that would make it easier to get vaccine exemptions and would require doctors to provide information on “potential harms” of vaccines … Ugh.
Keith Law: The population isn’t that insane, but the legislature is.

An angry Mets fan: Given that the two biggest contracts given out this offseason (Arenado and Machado) came from franchises that wouldn’t be considered financial juggernauts, can we start replacing “Team X can’t afford this player” with “Team X doesn’t want to afford this player”?
Keith Law: We should. Too many writers carrying water for owners, though.

Alex: Deranged Braves fan with a question that isn’t about the Braves. In my view, would it make strategic sense for the players union to negotiate with owners about the share of revenue that goes to players?
Keith Law: Yes, I feel like this is inevitable. I think it’s worked in the NBA, no? At least for sustained labor peace and a positive relationship between players and the league?

barbeach: Klaw: Thanks so much for the chat. Luke Voit or Greg Bird? Could Voit be for real?
Keith Law: I’d go with an outside option for 1b.

addoeh: I was pleasantly surprised to see Quinn Priester in your initial top 30 draft prospects ranking. How big of a disadvantage does he have given his season starts much later than prospects in warmer climates?
Keith Law: He’ll do fine – Kelenic went 6th, from the same general area, and with pitchers it’s even easier because you can do a relatively complete evaluation off one start, seeing stuff, size, mechanics, command, athleticism in one shot.

quack quack: Duck legs. Where do you get them? I can get whole duck, but I have to special order leg quarters and pay an arm and (ha ha) a leg for them, $14/lb. It’s cheaper to buy whole duck and cut it up, so why not just braise the breast quarters too as long as you’re at it?
Keith Law: Whole Foods has them intermittently or can order them. They freeze well, too.

Todd Boss: Harper Harper Harper! How relieved are you going to be when he finally signs and we can move on from a narrative perspective?
Keith Law: I’ve certainly had enough of this as a general story and of Philly writers/radio people taking cheap shots at Harper for (checks notes) letting his agent handle negotiations.

Sam: If the first regular season game is on March 20th, does that mark the start of the year for everyone, or just those teams? Asking so I know when Guerrero and Jimenez will magically stop needing minor league seasoning.
Keith Law: Just those teams.

Randall Stephens: How worried should I be about Kershaw? Can his FB get back to 93-94?
Keith Law: I think he can succeed averaging 90 mph, but I’m more concerned that his arm is sore. Seems like he’s never come up with a complaint about arm soreness.

Nick: Do you think Harper will take less to go to the West Coast? And how bad would it be if the Phillies were outbid?
Keith Law: No, I think he’ll take the most lucrative offer, period.

Beetlejuice: Hello Keith. Draft class looks pretty rough on the college pitching side – any guys you think have late life to jump into the top 5?
Keith Law: Right now, no.

Stanley: He just turned 18 a few months ago. Does Luis Garcia (PHI) have enough projection to get to 50 power?
Keith Law: Probably.

Mike: You’ve probably answered this at one point, but have you seen Ex Machina? Finally watched it for first time last night and it’s the best sci-fi film I’ve seen in awhile.
Keith Law: Yep, review is somewhere on this site. “I’m gonna tear up the fuckin’ dance floor” is one of the best lines/scenes of the decade.

Dave: In your organizational write-up, you noted that Detroit hadn’t gotten production from its international signings– is that because of poor scouting, not putting enough resources into either scouting or signing players, bad luck… or something else?
Keith Law: I don’t know what their investment in the region has been, but they haven’t produced players. They’ve had few big-dollar signings, though.

James: Will you have a chance to get out to San Diego to see Spencer Jones and/or Derek Diamond?
Keith Law: Right now, neither is good enough for me to make the trip.

Kevin : Are many players still older than their listed ages (cough:Pujols:cough) or is that becoming a thing of the past?
Keith Law: I still hear of those from time to time. Mostly players from Cuba now, rather than players from the DR, which was most common pre-9/11 and has since become almost nonexistent.

Mason: Who do you think is starting in center field for the Reds on opening day?
Keith Law: Why not Senzel? Who’s the better option?

Jay: Any remarks on Paddack’s ST outing, particularly on fastball location or new curveball shape he’s been working on?
Keith Law: Absolutely not. One brief ST outing when players are still getting into game shape tells us little to nothing.

CJ: Are you reporting to spring training in the best shape of your career?
Keith Law: Definitely not.

Jonny: Mount Rushmore of favorite movies ever?
Keith Law: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. Amelie. North by Northwest. Double Indemnity. Ugh, so many I have to leave out – Charade, To Catch a Thief, WALL-E … didn’t mention any musicals … The Maltese Falcon, Strangers on a Train, The Apartment … I could go on for a while.

Jim: Do teams place any personnel decisions on spring training performance or are those decisions already made in advance?
Keith Law: I think it still happens more than it should. ST should be for making sure everyone is healthy and ready to go, but less for new evaluations unless there is a tangible, physical explanation.

Matt: I was reading your foreign language learning strategy and in regards to the flashcards, would you still use the physical cards or do you know of a good online program or app that you would use now?
Keith Law: I’ve tried some apps and none has really worked for me.

Jay: Tatis callup on May 1 sound about right to you? Or more seasoning
Keith Law: He’s played less than a full season of games above low-A. I don’t know how ready he is right now – he might be so good it doesn’t matter, but I am not banging the drum for him as I am for Vlad Jr. or Eloy.

Mark: Should the Nats offer Rendon the same contract extension that Arenado just got? I’d be more heartbroken if he left than Harper honestly.
Keith Law: Yes.

Mike: Klaw, thanks for your great work. I’m looking for restaurant recommendations for Charlotte. My wife loves chain restaurants, so I want her to try something that perhaps you can recommend.
Keith Law: I have spent very little time there, so I’m sorry but I don’t have any.

AES: I can’t read the rankings because ESPN+ isn’t available to dirty foreigners. So I’m asking, it seems the hosiery trade worked out perfect for the Crimson, as Sale has been great, flags fly forever, but how much hav e koepech/moncada dropped?
Keith Law: If you sign up through a VPN and choose digital delivery, you should be able to subscribe. Moncada is no longer eligible, and Kopech only dropped because he got hurt.

Jack: In your opinion, is this offseason a disaster for the Phillies if they dont get Harper?
Keith Law: No, but it’ll be a bad winter.

John: Plan on ever going to Morgantown, WV to see Manoah or any other guys?
Keith Law: More likely I’ll get him on the road. That’s not easy to get to from here.

Mike: Did you have a chance to watch Kikuchi pitch? If so, any takeaways?
Keith Law: I’ll try to see him live, not on tv.

Beetlejuice: With the service time manipulation in the news – can you point to any players that weren’t ready in one facet and might have benefited significantly from another 2-3 months to refine that one skill (so they wouldn’t have to learn on the job in the majors)? Wouldn’t you say that is a legitimate reason to hold off on promoting a high level prospect? (especially if the player is young/hasn’t had many reps in the minors)
Keith Law: Jose Guillen comes to mind. Jumped to the majors at 19, never progressed much after that.

Greg: Hey, Keith. What do you think is the biggest reason that a large percentage of US citizens don’t seem to care/realize that the president is implicated in many, many crimes? Crimes that would be the hugest scandal in the world for any previous president. Is it a lack of knowledge? Tribalism run amok? Or the gradual normalization and slow trickle of all the crimes just makes everybody shrug. Rick Santorum actually defended Trump’s constant lying about Russia by saying it wasn’t surprising because Trump lies about everything.
Keith Law: Tribalism run amok is a good way to phrase it. Many people do not care about issues beyond those of their religion, such as trying to ban abortion, or protecting their own race.

Teddy Ballgame: Best pizza around Scottsdale, go. I’m there for two days in early March.
Keith Law: Bianco, Pomo, cibo, Craft 64. Apparently I need to try Myke’s pizza truck, too.

Sean: Where do you stand on intangible traits? Some are clearly just voo doo (like clutchiness), while some might be real but just impossible to quantify and therefore shouldn’t be included in contract negotiations? Can you give examples of some of the latter?
Keith Law: If they exist enough for us to identify them, they’re probably not intangible. Work ethic would be one. “Desire” gets a little wonky. Good in the clubhouse is mostly bullshit.

Jon: Nolan Arenado was hardly a league average player with a .772 OPS away from Coors last season. Obviously a different story in Denver. That being said, what are your thoughts on the contract? Too rich for my blood at zero fault to arenado. Go get your money!
Keith Law: Great for the player. It’s not fair to just look at a Rockies player’s road splits, though – if you put Arenado at sea level he wouldn’t post that road stat line. But I don’t think I’d want him at that salary level into his 30s.

Dan: Hi Keith, do you think Miles Mikolas and Shane Bieber can repeat their success from last year? St Louis obviously believes in Mikolas.
Keith Law: Bieber had a 4.55 ERA and will probably be more homer-prone going forward.

Evan: Ke’Bryan Hayes a 25 HR guy if the MLB ball doesn’t change?
Keith Law: I’ll buy that.

Joel: Are you buying Moniak’s second half? Are the tools still there to be a first division regular?
Keith Law: I’m not buying that.

Deke: What do you think of Joe Sheehan’s argument that the pace of play stuff is almost entirely borne of writers wanting to go home sooner, and the industry’s rising revenues prove that there’s not really a problem?
Keith Law: Partial agreement, partial disagreement. I do think there is a pace of play issue, but it’s 90% about commercials, not this other crap (although I’d like to see someone nail hitters’ feet in the batter’s box). Rising revenues do show that the sport is healthy, but revenues have risen faster than fan interest (such as the total # of people interested in the sport).

Brett: Do you feel like a lot of the hype or mystique that usually begins a new season has been lessened or tainted by greedy ownership and the labor strife? In my small group of Baseball friends, I can’t remember a time they were less excited for a new season.
Keith Law: Yes.

Cartoons Plural : Wander Franco starts 2019 in Bowling Green. Where do you expect him to finish the year at?
Keith Law: Port Charlotte.

Kevin : Was you (still are) a fan on early 90’s grunge/alternative?
Keith Law: Yep.

War biscuit : What order do you prefer these college SS: Holland, Stott, Shewmake and Davidson
Keith Law: I just ranked them all on Tuesday.

The Decider: Are you doing a breakout players for 2019 column?
Keith Law: Yes.

Kevin : Seems like Democrats should talk about farm bailouts being actual socialism as opposed to healthcare?
Keith Law: The right’s messaging on “socialism” has been far too effective, because most Americans don’t know what socialism means – really, I’d guess 60-70% could not correctly define the term – and thus saying “we’re not socialists!” isn’t very useful. The left needs better messaging on this: these are policies that will do X, Y, and Z *for you*.

Nathan: I LOVE my Anova but I feel like it’s steak after steak after steak with maybe a chicken thrown in once in a while. Any good ways to mix it up or just use it for what it’s good at? Also, do you vacuum seal bags, use ziplocks, etc.?
Keith Law: Vacuum seal. I don’t eat steak so I use mine for chicken thighs, duck legs, occasionally pork chops, even some vegetables that require a long cooking time like beets.

addoeh: For young pitchers where you see their long term future is as a reliever, when should the team move him to reliever? Is it when he is major league ready? At what point should they stop thinking that there could be a small chance to be a starter?
Keith Law: I think performance will usually tell you.
Keith Law: Or health. If a guy starts breaking down you’d rather move him sooner rather than later.

John: What did you eat at Xochi? Sorry if you’ve posted that somewhere and I missed it.
Keith Law: The crispy duck and some divine chocolate thing (river and rocks, something like that). To die for.

Mark: You’ve probably tackled this before but once more for idiots in the back like me… Why shouldn’t teams behave exactly like the Blue Jays are with Vlad? It just seems like good business given the parameters that exist right now. Baseball writers will wring their hands but I don’t think the teams give a damn about that. I suppose you run the risk of pissing the player off, but 7 years is a long time and feelings can (and probably do) change in that period of time. I agree that the current system is idiotic, but I cant really fault teams for doing what they think is the best business decision, and in most cases, locking in a top young player for an extra year seems like a sound business decision given the squishiness of the downsides.
Keith Law: My main baseball problem with this is the idea that you can accurately predict 1) what the player will be like 7 years from now 2) what your team will be like 7 years from now and 3) what the rules will be like 7 years from now.
Keith Law: Plus, what if the Jays had called Vlad up in June, and he’d hit like Mike Trout for three-plus months? Maybe they like their projections for 2019 more and decide to add to the team rather than subtracting? Maybe more fans show up, or buy season tickets, so there’s more cash in the till going forward? The blanket assumption that holding the player down will be, unequivocally, a positive for the team does not hold water for me.

Paul: I feel like that guy disproved his own point. If he moved because of a similar wage in a low COLA area, then cities would be forced to pay a living wage to keep their residents. Thurs showing a benefit of a Federally mandated minimum wage.
Keith Law: Fair point. We tried to pass one in Delaware a year ago, to $11, and it failed by something like two votes, so I’m planning to work to unseat my Senator, who voted against it.

Scott: Are you getting the new Castles of Burgundy app?
Keith Law: Is it out yet? I will when it’s available.

Craig R.: Keith, early MLB Draft question. Any specific HS player that might have the most helium or chance to jump up come June?
Keith Law: I just ranked a top 30 the other day; if I like a player the way you’re described, he’s ranked that way on the list.

Mike: Loved your oscar podcast, and hoping there is a regular Klaw podcast sometime in the future. Do you have any podcasts (besides G & L) that you listen to regularly?
Keith Law: thanks! I listen to Hidden Brain, Crimetown, Hugh Acheson Stirs the Pot (been *really* enjoying that lately), BBC’s The Inquiry.

Zach: Isn’t it “radical” that AOC was the most rational speaker at the hearing yesterday? Pun intended!
Keith Law: The young women reps were way more prepared and presented better than the majority of the men. Amazing what a little diversity will do for any group.

Robby: As a prospect enthusiast, who is the top Midwest draft prospect that I should go out and see when the snow melts?
Keith Law: I think Misner was the top midwest guy on my list the other day, unless you count Texas as Midwest (I do not).

Jeff: If you had to pick one guy from the Dbacks that has the highest star potential in the minors, who is it? Thomas? Chisolm?
Keith Law: Chisholm now, only real competition for that is Robinson.

Tim: Will Moncada be a horror show at 3B?
Keith Law: I saw him play it in the AFL and I thought he was adequate. Not average, but decent enough to think he might stay there.

Joe: Everyone makes fun of the “best shape of his life” reports every spring…but Cubs Twitter made a good point when David Bote came into camp in great shape. As a lower draft pick who was never a top prospect, this is probably his first offseason where he has been able to concentrate on baseball instead of saving up money for the season. Not paying minor leaguers is so counterproductive.
Keith Law: I like your point although I don’t know that this makes Bote’s projections any different.

Joshue: It’s unfair to think Hudson Potts has to move off 3B now, right? Is he the most obvious trade candidate for SD?
Keith Law: I wrote in my Machado reaction piece that he was trade bait.
Keith Law: I don’t see him profiling as a regular at another position, so dealing him is the best use of his value.

Nick: A thought I had on the whole question of service time manipulation and the depressed FA market…what if MLB decided that teams who didn’t win at least x games for y consecutive seasons, with a combination of low payroll commitment, saw a dip in their share of the league revenue. Like, a team wins fewer than 75 games for 3 years a never cracks the top 22 in league payroll during that times sees their share of the revenue drop from 1/30 to 1/45 or 1/60? Would this provide enough incentive for teams to sing more middle class FAs who will help them be competitive?
Keith Law: Yes – I’d like to see revenue sharing tied to wins. I’ve come around on changing some of these fundamental assumptions about the game, because teams have stopped distributing as much revenue to the players, and that’s untenable both as a practical matter and, to me, as a philosophical issue.

Joel: Which Luis Garcia would you rather have?
Keith Law: The one who made my top 100, of course.

Brian: To address the earlier question on a $40 minimum wage…wouldn’t people deciding to move from San Fran to more rural areas be an overall positive outcome for the country?
Keith Law: Debatable. We may not be at the ideal equilibrium, but getting more people into cities, using public transport & ditching cars, would have positive externalities.
Keith Law: Hey, it looks like Harper might have signed with the Phillies after all. That’s a lot of full diapers over nothing.

Tim: Will we see Madrigal in the show this year?
Keith Law: I would be very surprised.
Keith Law: They didn’t call up Eloy when he was ready last year. Madrigal would be barely a year out of college.

Jesus: Are you even willing to accept that there are plenty arguments that The Green Book was a very good movie? Or do you simply decide anyone who enjoyed it is wrong because you say so?
Keith Law: That would be the loaded question fallacy, “Jesus.” Kindly take the door on your left.

JD: Pretty sure you’ve answered this before, but what board games would you introduce to a ~6-year-old?
Keith Law: That’s one I’m happy to answer regularly – Ticket to Ride First Journey is perfect. I’m told the kids’ versions of Catan and Carcassonne are also fun. You can play One Night Ultimate Werewolf with kids that young too. My niece is 6 and really likes Jaipur now, which is great if a bit surprising because of the foresight required to play it. (She’s bright, though.) I think the base Dominion game could work if you’re selective about the cards you choose for the table.

Edgar: Have you seen Josh Jung? My goodness that is a smooth swing.
Keith Law: Only video. He’ll be a tough get but I will try.

David: Hi Keith. My fellow Cards fans keep suggesting Flaherty is on the same level as Buehler. I disagree – but is it close?
Keith Law: No, not really close, but Flaherty is really damn good (and, cough, I regularly ranked him on my top 100 too).

Guest: Despite the horror show that was most of the main category winners, I actually thought the Oscars were better w no host. Either give me the SNL troika as hosts for everything or go hostless, I say.
Keith Law: Agreed. I thought the show itself was mostly very entertaining, and some of the presenters were great (McCarthy/Henry, Mulaney/Awkwafina). Grierson and Leitch commented on their podcast that if Roma had won Best Picture, everyone would be talking about how great the telecast was.

justin: Are you still a believer in Arcia?
Keith Law: Yep. Still young, very very talented.

Paul: Hey Keith – sounds like UGA has a couple stud pitchers for the 2020 draft. Excited to get back to Athens??
Keith Law: Hancock maybe, Wilcox for ’21. I think I’ll end up there this year to see a road team and get a look at Schunk.

Jay: ESPN subscription renewal coming soon. Are you able to share any insights on your ongoing status at ESPN (ie. beyond 2019)?
Keith Law: I have no updates – my contract runs through December, and that’s all.

Ira: Why aren’t more players taught multiple positions when being developed in the minors? It would give teams more flexibility and the player would have added value.
Keith Law: I feel like most teams do this already, no? I hear it constantly when making calls for the rankings.

Cartoons Plural : Tyler Glasnow’s pause in his delivery, good or bad thing?
Keith Law: Neither. What may be good for one pitcher may be bad for another.

Brian: I really thought nothing would beat Don Jr as the real life GOB Bluth and then came Matthew Calamari
Keith Law: I so wanted to make a Gene Parmesan joke but Lana Berry beat me to it.

EL: Canadian baseball fan who must know: Who’s the better Naylor? The better Pompey?
Keith Law: The younger, and the younger.

Bill: Can Keon Broxton hit enough to be an everyday CFer?
Keith Law: IMO no. Did it once, for most of a year, that’s it.

JR: Do you bother watching Spring Training games on mlb.tv? I’m guessing only if you know a top prospect is going to be playing?
Keith Law: Because I often can’t see the angles I want I find the experience rather frustrating. And it’s spring training, where the games are (Allen Iverson voice) PRAC-tice.

Andy: I am trying to get into earlier Opeth. They are interesting musically, but I really can’t figure out how to like the harsh singing. While I can understand the music needs the harsh singing, it completely takes me out of the music. How do you compensate for music that’s good, other than cookie monster growling?
Keith Law: I hear you (pun intended). I can tune that out with some artists, like Opeth, less with others, like Obituary, who have long done very interesting stuff on the border of thrash and death metal but whose singer sounds like he’s flossing with a chainsaw.

Zihuatanejo: In a recent spring training game, in all but 3 PAs for the entire game the Dodger hitters swung at the first pitch they saw. Do you think that was: 1) a random thing that happened; 2) a directive from the dugout; or 3) an inside joke between the players?
Keith Law: I’d guess 2, then 3, but not 1.

Robert: Did you drop in to any new restaurants in austin last week?
Keith Law: Better Half, Micklethwait, Backspace, Cane Rosso (been to the Dallas one).

JD: Doesn’t keeping somebody down for service time reasons violate the CBA? I thought that was why management always pretends it’s for other reasons, and you occasionally get grievances. So it’s not just “the best business decision,” it’s against the rules
Keith Law: It does. But you can’t prove it if they don’t admit it.

PULLEY: Regarding Vlad Jr and the BS service time manipulation… why doesnt a player like him or kris Bryant in 2015, when it’s obvious they are being held down for manipulation purposes only come out and say something like “if I am sent down I will not negotiate any extension in the future and will fully explore free agency no matter what.”
Keith Law: Idle threat.

Zach: Minimum Wage – Federal steps in because if not Texas and Mississippi would be paying $2.50 an hour.
Keith Law: You think they’d pay that much?

Dave: I was reading Fangraphs Top Prospects list (I know you think highly of them and work with them at times) and in their writeup of Andres Gimenez (on which they had him ranked much higher than you) they mention that ppl may have gotten a different impression on him based on when they saw him. They said he looked pretty blah in the AFL but very possibily couldve been due to fatigue from a long season. I know that you saw him in person at the AFL and came away relatively “meh” on his hitting. Did you factor in the potential fatigue aspect at that point or do you feel that that may be overblown.
Keith Law: I do factor that in, but 1) that’s not the only time I saw him and 2) I ask a *lot* of people before doing those rankings.

Brian: Dylan Cozens has impressed people in Phillies camp. Does a guy like that with massive tools and massive holes always have a chance to break out, or once he hits a certain age/stage of development do the holes become very unlikely to be closed enough to take advantage of the tools?
Keith Law: One massive tool, the power, that’s it. Not a good player, just a guy with raw power.

Tyler: Today Liberty Media showed Braves’ revenue surged to $442M for 2018. Their 2019 payroll is currently lower than last year after winning the NL East. What is wrong with this picture?
Keith Law: Well, an hour ago, you might have argued they were still favorites or close to it to win the division. Now…

Jeremy: No question, thanks for the chats. Also, another newer pizza place in Phoenix that is fantastic is BASE pizza on Lincoln.
Keith Law: Adds to the list. Taking suggestions, of course.

Phillies Prospects: How frustrating is it when people repost your work that was behind the ESPN paywall? Where Siani or Newell close to the top 30?
Keith Law: Not just frustrating – it’s illegal. If you see it, say something, to me or to the site’s operators. Neither was close but I will certainly see both as they play within an hour of me. Also the HS pitcher near Philly whose name escapes me right now.

War biscuit : I believe Wilcox is a draft eligible sophomore so he may be eligible for 2020
Keith Law: Didn’t realize that, so much the better if he is.

Nat: What’s your opinion of Harper getting $330 mil over 13 with no opt-outs according to Passan?
Keith Law: Love it.
Keith Law: Phillies are the preseason favorites for the division now. Granted, that doesn’t mean much when the games start, but still, good deal.

Cartoons Plural : Saw Detroit ranked as a Top 10 farm, mainly because of apparently lots of MLB ready talent? Is it quantity or quality?
Keith Law: They’re not a top 10 farm.

Pierre: Phillis pitching sucks after Nola.
Keith Law: Good taek.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Might do a Periscope tomorrow now that we have more news to discuss, but I’ll wrap this one up here. Thank you as always for reading, and for all of your questions. I’ll write something up on Harper this afternoon. Enjoy your weekends.

Keith Law: Klawchat. How can you run when you know?

Dante: Thoughts on the Nola extension? It seems this type of deal is becoming less common, but maybe they come back en vogue with FA now panning out well recently for even the best players.
Keith Law: Definitely less common – I think I said that on the BBTN podcast a few weeks ago? – so I’m glad to see it. I can’t imagine low-revenue teams have decided they’re willing to ride players out through arbitration without even trying to buy out a year or two of free agency. This current market slump is not sustainable, not with industry revenues where they are.

Aaron C.: As an African-American fan and father of a 15 y/o ballplayer, I feel this whole Kyler Murray thing quietly highlights how poorly MLB markets its sport and creates inclusive support structures for players of color. I cringe at the reported pitch the team of MLB officials made to Murray last month. Did they hand him one of those silly “Whole Squad Ready” spring training hoodies? Ugh.
Keith Law: Also, maybe pay minor leaguers a living wage. Maybe it doesn’t matter for Murray, who 1) will make a shit-ton more in the NFL draft and 2) may just prefer football, period, but it will matter to a lot of other players with that choice going forward.

Scott: How important is positional value in your prospect rankings? If Nico Hoerner was projected by the Cubs only as a second baseman instead of a SS, would he have been rated higher?
Keith Law: I have read this three times and I’m still not sure I understand it. I don’t care if the Cubs think Hoerner is a SS; my rankings are based on where I think Hoerner will play, and I don’t think he stays at shortstop. Plus moving from SS to 2B reduces a player’s value.

Richard: The Jays have collected a slew of prospects who seem more like depth guys or second-division regulars than real GUYS. Do any – like Kevin smith or Ronny Brito – have a chance to be more than that?
Keith Law: No, I don’t think so. Their prospects with a chance to be GUYS are the teenagers in short-season – the Orelvis, Hiraldo, Pardinho, Groshans group.

Aaron C.: I don’t mean to sneeze at the draft pick slot dollars, but the BEST thing the A’s could offer Kyler Murray to entice him to play professional baseball is…a chance to play amateur football. Has baseball lost the two-sport athlete for good?
Keith Law: Oh, sorry, meant to hit this earlier too. Again, a living wage for minor leaguers is the first answer. Baseball should also use the NFL’s refusal to admit its connection to CTE against the sport.

DH: social media fix: take away anonymity. If the gatekeepers verify their users (and people could turn off unverified users on their feed) it adds accountability. And that would remove most of the vitriol, and all of the bots and false identities.
Keith Law: I tend to agree – Twitter without anonymity would be a much safer, less irritating place – but we see it through the lens of a country with free speech and a free press (for now), whereas users in authoritarian countries who might wish to use the site to connect with other dissenters would have to stop using it.

Eric Dongenhagen: Any chance you kept up with Fangraph’s prospect week this week? I know in the past you say you don’t look at other lists but that you do respect the guys over there.
Keith Law: I looked at their top 100-something, but I’d also talked to Eric a few times in the previous two weeks so I knew some of the rankings already (and he knew mine before they were posted).

Dan: Harper this, Machado that.. what about Keuchel? First off, is his remaining unsigned about the same market factors arguably driving the situations for the other two? Or is it more about his performance? Very low strikeout rate for today’s game. Second, where does he likely end up? Back in Houston seems like a no-brainer, doesn’t it?
Keith Law: I wonder if there are concerns about his healthy history/prognosis.

guren: Are there any particular ingredients that will automatically cause you to order the dish when you see them on a menu? For me, it’s oysters, soft-shell crabs, and cilantro.
Keith Law: Duck. Beets (especially with goat cheese). House-made pasta, especially gnocchi. I would say 90% of the time if there’s a dark chocolate dessert on a menu, that’s what I’m ordering.

2020: Do you think Wander Franco’s the #1 prospect in baseball this time next year?
Keith Law: It’s the most likely outcome.

Mike: Not a question – Used your search bar here to see if you’d ever had a Ryan Adams song on a music update list in light of the recent NYT article. Ended up reading your entire “Best of the 2000’s” music list, which led me back to an album I hadn’t heard in over a decade – Doves – The Last Broadcast. I completely forgot how incredible this album is, and am already on a second spin through, perplexed how this hasn’t been a constant in my life. It will be now. Thanks for the reminder!
Keith Law: They’ve apparently reunited, too, although I’ll reserve judgment until i hear some music. Jimi’s solo album was a big disappointment.

Fuzzy Dunlop: Are you planning on going to see Witt in person at all? If you see him during the HS season, make sure it’s when he’s playing the team I coach so I can get the Twenty One Pilots playlist ready for you.
Keith Law: Yes, preferably before spring training, just to check him off the list. Texas HS teams start Tuesday.

Scott: Will you be visiting any spring training sites this year?
Keith Law: Yes, every year.

Mike: You give a lot of current music updates here, and I was curious if you ever uncover older stuff you either missed or misjudged initially? Do any stick out in your memory? Would love to see a list of songs/artists you missed, similar to your list of players you were wrong on. Thanks!
Keith Law: Yes, happens often, usually I hear something I don’t know, assume it’s new, and then find out it’s from some point in time when I wasn’t that into music. I didn’t hear the Electric Six’s debut album Fire until maybe ten years after it came out. Just missed it.

Mark: Have you ever considered doing a top 100 movie list in the same style as your book list ?
Keith Law: I tried to do one a few years ago, but realized I was missing so many ‘classic’ movies that the list seemed inherently incomplete.

Bob Loblaw: What are your thoughts on the Twins extending Polanco for 5 years in the wake of his 80 game PED suspension?
Keith Law: Are those connected?

Mark: Do you ever make Lasagna ? If so ,do you use a bechamel sauce ?
Keith Law: I don’t make it. I really haven’t eaten that style of pasta al forno – with tomato sauce and a lot of dairy, usually ricotta – in 15-20 years. It’s too heavy for me.

Doug: I’ve read in a few placed Nimmo played over his head last year but his plate skills look elite. Leading off for a decent Mets team is 100/15/15 with a 380 obp reasonable?
Keith Law: I don’t know what the slash line is. He can post a .380-.400 OBP vs RHP for sure.

Aaron C.: Any high school or collegiate talent in San Diego County worth keeping an eye on/watching play this spring?
Keith Law: Spencer Jones at La Costa Canyon is the best name I know out your way – same HS as Mickey Moniak. Don’t hold that against him.

Bob Uecker: What kind of performance do you think Keston Hiura can offer in his rookie season? A LeMahieu-esque line a reasonable projection for now?
Keith Law: God I hope he’s better than that.

TjF: James Kaprielian – officially another John Savage overuse casualty?
Keith Law: Although Savage overworked a lot of pitchers, I don’t recall him specifically overusing Kaprielian.

Chris: I’m curious if you read the interview in the Athletic with McGuirk and AA. It came across as remarkably condescending towards Braves fans. It’s almost like they’re upset the team won the division last year because it has increased pressure on them to keep it up when Liberty has debt to pay.
Keith Law: I haven’t read it.

Mark: I know you are a proponent of Lou Whitaker for the Hall. Do you feel Bobby Grich has a strong case as well ?
Keith Law: Very much so.

Rick: Apologies if you’ve covered this before, thoughts on the Reds off-season? As a fan I’m glad to seeing them going for it, even though the rational part of me says it’s too soon/they didn’t get enough to make the post-season. It doesn’t feel like they significantly impacted their farm system, and they could always flip a few of their acquisitions mid-season if the season goes haywire?
Keith Law: If the season goes haywire, it likely means their acquisitions flopped, which is the most likely outcome.

Ken: Guy whose music you like turns out to be (at minimum) manipulative jerk. Toss his albums and don’t look back?
Keith Law: Little easier for me since I only liked a few of his songs – it would be hard for me to say that to someone who, say, had a particular memory or emotional connection with certain tracks.

Rodney: Does Joe McCarthy have a future with the Rays? He seems ready to contribute at the major league level, assuming he stays healthy. Will he find a spot with the depth of young talent that team has?
Keith Law: Yes. Has to keep his back healthy and stop punching walls.

Nick: You’re an Econ guy, what’s the book say on what the Athletics do with Kyler Murray? If he plays football you lose a top 10 pick for no compensation but there has to be a limit on how much to increase their offer before there is no value surplus. What’s the value of that pick? 10 million? 15 million?
Keith Law: The pick is sunk. The question is whether Murray would be worth some enormous additional sum of money. I think the risk of no return there is high enough that he’s not.

Dave: Any soon to be released board games you’re looking forward to?
Keith Law: I already have the new Villainous expansion (which is also a standalone game) and liked it quite a bit. I have Wingspan too but haven’t cracked it yet. Same for Comanauts.

SeanE: Does KeBryan Hayes has what it takes to potentially make the switch to SS? He is clearly a plus plus defender at 3b and I know that does not always translate but wouldn’t his value be off the charts if he could hand the position?
Keith Law: No.

Henry: Keith, no question but just want to thank you for the outstanding write-ups on prospects and farm systems over the past few weeks. I could see the care and diligence you invested in it which was a product of great interviews and research. Well done!
Keith Law: Thank you. I’m glad you enjoyed them. I was happy with the outcome overall.

No one: Is it true you’re getting a divorce because you were unfaithful?
Keith Law: Well that’s a new one. No, it’s not true.
Keith Law: People are so weird.

Mark: Do you think the slow free agency is bad for the game? If so, do you have any ideas to fix it?
Keith Law: I think it’s terrible for the game, but I don’t think there is a quick or simple fix for it. I believe ultimately the league will need to guarantee some percentage of revenue goes to the players, like in the NBA.

Brad: The Rockies haven’t had a good catcher in years. Is it due to poor drafting, poor player development or something else?
Keith Law: A little bad luck, too. Murphy couldn’t stay healthy.

Joseph: Afternoon, what’s best case scenario for Dodger OF issues? Verdugo showcase for a trade?
Keith Law: Other than signing Harper? Trading one of the catchers for OF help. Verdugo’s trade value is very low right now.

john: detroit tigers question, is Funkhouser a sleeper prospect? overshadowed by Manning, Faedo, Mize
Keith Law: Has yet to have a full, healthy, effective season.

Quez: How did the Mets do this offseason? Will McNeil get regular ABs in the OF? Thoughts on Alonso?
Keith Law: Mixed bag this offseason. Did poorly in trades, well in free agency overall (other than Familia). Would like to see either Alonso or Smith get everyday AB at 1b – both are ready, and blocking either one with veterans is counterproductive.

Mark: There seems to be a lot of criticism of owners/front offices not wanting to spend, but do players get any blame for free agency too? It seems like Machado and Harper “not wanting to sign first” could be holding up many other dominos from falling.
Keith Law: I don’t believe that’s true.

Alex: What was your favorite part of living in Pittsburgh when you attended CMU, and which area did you live in?
Keith Law: Shadyside. My favorite part was leaving each May because the gray winters killed me. I had no idea that was a thing at the time, but now I know (and have a light box right here next to me).

Grant: When you talk about how front offices hire people that know coding, what do you mean? Python?
Keith Law: That’s a nice place to start but teams are hiring people with advanced degrees in computer science & related fields.

John: If you had to guess, where will the Rays and A’s be in their stadium searches a year from now?
Keith Law: Exactly where they are now.
Keith Law: Sorry, had to go get the Samoas.

War biscuit : What have you heard on Will Holland and are you gonna go to auburn again to scout him?
Keith Law: doubt I’ll go to Auburn – more likely I’ll see him on the road against a potential first rounder.

Nick: Feel like the market is ripe For a team to get real creative to try and land Machado or Harper. Something like 9 years 300 million (110m over first 3 years) and player opt outs every season after year 3). The player could pocket 9 figures and still hit free agency in their 20’s, or essentially go year by after that for $32m a year and wait til they come off an MVP type year and then hit free agency again. Don’t think a contender would complain of 3-6 years of their prime if they walked at any point.
Keith Law: Agreed.

Quinn : Vlad Jr.’s wRC+ was 70 points greater then Tatis’ in AA last year. So, when you put Tatis above Vlad Jr. in your top prospects ranking is it because the difference in defensive ability really is that great or because you expect to improve comparatively more then Vlad Jr.?
Keith Law: wRC+ is utterly useless for prospect evaluation. So that’s your first problem. The differences are position, defensive value, baserunning, physical projection, and probability of improvement.

AGirlHasNoName: Am I wrong that a team made up of the remaining free agents could win 90 games?More even? Certainly more than the Marlins, right?
Keith Law: I can’t be the only one who thinks if the free agents wanted to they could put together a baseball team and dominate the troops.

LD: A few weeks ago, you tweeted that you were giving your daughter guitar lessons. How are you going about it? Is there a set time weekly? Nylon vs. steel string guitar? Hoping to start doing the same with my kids soon… Many thanks for all your writing and thinking.
Keith Law: Steel strings. I hate the sound of nylon, and it’s not going to sound like what she wants it to sound like (for pop songs). I haven’t pushed her at all – when she wants to practice, we practice.

Chris: Hi Keith, I was surprised Moises Gomez, wasn’t mentioned in the Rays write-up. Are there defensive or approach concerns that limit his upside?
Keith Law: Massive approach concerns.

SeanE: Adam Frazier still a utility guy in your mind or can he hit enough at 2b to cover for the below average defense. Or should they just give the job to Kramer and see what he can do?
Keith Law: Utility guy.

Alex Anthopoulos: What’s the one big move I can make, either now or in July, that would push the Braves from the 85-90 win range to actual world series contenders?
Keith Law: Signing Harper, certainly. I don’t see Liberty doing that.
Keith Law: Also, aren’t you Cobb County taxpayers glad you built the team that stadium to line Liberty’s coffers? Much better than funding schools or improving your roads or employing more first responders.

Tom: Why wasn’t Daulton Varsho on your list of D-backs prospects? What do you think his ceiling is?
Keith Law: He was on there.

Guest: I know you dont like to speculate – but do you think there has been collusion among owners or just a bad CBA?
Keith Law: I could never prove collusion, but teams all deciding to hold the line on spending at once is an awfully large coincidence.

JP: Would it be a good idea to let Tanner Houck break into MLB in the bullpen? I’m oddly optimistic of the young gun bullpen with Mata, Feltman, Lakins.
Keith Law: Yes. I still think it’s the most likely outcome for him but he did show more than I expected as a starter in the last 2/3 of 2018.

Zach: Amazon pulls out of NYC. Oh no, now who can we give billions in tax breaks to?
Keith Law: Right? don’t let the door hit you on your way out through the Holland Tunnel at 15 mph.

Dan: How big of a concern is Victor Robles’ exit velo? He’s in Tony Kemp territory in both of his MLB stints.
Keith Law: Tiny sample size.

Gabriel: Considering that I don’t think draft pick trading will happen anytime soon, do you think draft pick swaps would be an easier sell? They could limit it to the same round and get rid of the “small market teams will just sell their picks to the large market team” debate
Keith Law: The reason I don’t believe it’ll happen is that neither side has any real incentive to push for it. CBA changes involve a gain for one side or the other, and each side pushes ideas to the center of the table that will benefit them. Nobody clearly benefits from trading of draft picks, not enough for either side to push for it.

Tom: What are your critiques of Spider-verse beyond it being silly and derivative? I usually agree with your movie reviews, but I thought that movie was very well done
Keith Law: The whole film relied way too much on violence to solve every problem. Fine in a big superhero movie, not fine in an animated movie aimed at kids.

Nacho: Curious about Nolan Watson, 1st rounder few years back for Royals. Do you see any future for him, as either reliever or sp? Thanks!
Keith Law: Non-prospect.
Keith Law: Saw him last year, FYI.

Matt: Considering their relatively young age and the fact that they should be in their primes for several more years do you think a team should try to sign Machado or Harper even if they don’t plan on competing until say 2020 or 2021?
Keith Law: Yes, I think that’s reasonable, especially for a team looking to compete in 2020. And then maybe you sell a bunch more tickets in 2019, or pick up more stadium revenue from ads and suites and sponsorships, so you can go buy another big piece in a year.

Rob: Out of curiosity, non Tatis division, who is your *favorite* Padres prospect? The one you hope most hits his potential because you want to watch that career?
Keith Law: I love watching Tirso Ornelas hit. It’s just a great, great swing.

Tony B: Wait photographic memory isn’t real?
Keith Law: No. People who claim to have eidetic memories may have very good memories, but will still make mistakes on details and even fabricate such details when asked to recall images or scenes.

Chris P: Anyone show up to camp in the “best shape of their life” yet?
Keith Law: I just got back from the gym! then I ate three samoas.

Reader: How do we as fans reconcile different prospect lists having different pitches for the same pitcher, especially when it comes to breaking balls?
Keith Law: I don’t think it matters that much when it’s CB vs SL. They function the same way, and often one of us will be going off what the pitcher calls it and another writer will go off what it looks like from the hitter’s perspective. It would matter if we were talking about confusing a changeup for one of those pitches, because they serve different purposes. Similarly I don’t really care if we call a pitch a cutter or slider – I care how it works.

Sam: I muted Trump on twitter and my quality of life has improved drastically. I would recommend this to anyone, however by muting him is that the equivalent of burying my head in the sand? I don’t want to be ignorant of his lies and vitriol, but at the same time I like it when my blood doesn’t boil
Keith Law: If you want to know what he said, there are plenty of places to read about it. I find his tweets infuriating, but they don’t set policy, and he could drop the n-word and his adherents wouldn’t blink, so what’s the point in listening?

Grant: Keith, have you read The Woman in The Window, or read the recent articles about the author, Dan Mallory (A.J. Finn)? If you have, I’m curious what your thoughts are. Thanks.
Keith Law: I haven’t and don’t plan to, especially not after the story this morning that accused him of plagiarizing large portions of the novel.

Chris: With Michael King on the Yankees being shut down for at least 3 weeks with an elbow injury after ‘feeling pain’, this significantly hurts his chances of being an option in 2019 for the Yankees, doesn’t it? Seems ominous
Keith Law: Just a bullpen piece anyway. Not something to worry about.

Keith: Are the differences in Madrigal’s rankings across multiple lists simply a difference of opinion on his future power, or are there other skills/issues in question as well?
Keith Law: I don’t know. I can only tell you why he didn’t make my list.

Eric: Hi Keith. I just want to remind people to Vaccinate Your Kids and stop giving attention to those dolts who say otherwise.
Keith Law: Yep. And call your legislators to demand they eliminate all non-medical exemptions for children who wish to attend school.

Noah: Jasson Dominguez apparently is going to sign with the Yankees for their whole bonus pool. Any thoughts on him/what have you heard?
Keith Law: Ask me in July if and when he signs.
Keith Law: I don’t even bother tracking those guys now. Plus Kevin Maitan was supposed to be the best July 2nd guy since Sano and he’s barely a prospect 2.5 years later.

Andy: How much impact did Kolby Allard’s 8 bad innings for Atlanta have on his stock? He was terrific in AAA in his age 20 season but his stock has seemingly plummeted (as has his velo, I understand).
Keith Law: The stuff matters, the 8 innings don’t. Teams are smarter than that now.

Alex: Will baseball (and/or the other major sports leagues) ever realize that incentivizing teams to lose in order to get the best amateur talent via the draft is a really bad way to get fans excited about your product? Why would I shell out ticket money to see my local team try to lose 120 times?
Keith Law: I do think the next CBA will alter the top of the draft somehow. Maybe a lottery for the top ten picks. Maybe a modified free agent pool for the same top ten picks. Maybe reverse order of finish for non-playoff teams – so the team with the best record that misses the playoffs picks first.

Mark: When will you have 2019 draft coverage up?
Keith Law: Hoping to do a preseason top 30 by next Friday.

Ethan: Not a question, but, enjoyed your review of High Flying Bird. I enjoyed it a bit more than you but generally agree with your takeaway that it’s worth a watch more for the ideas and arguments it introduces than for the way it presents them.
Keith Law: I’ve recommended it to a lot of people in the industry for that reason. A good film, not a great one, but hits a lot of key issues for us as baseball fans.

Dan: I know you’ve professed to care not a whit for the other major American sports, but have you tried to get into world football/soccer at all?
Keith Law: I’ll root for Italy in the World Cup but that’s about it. Forza Azzurri!

guren: Would Curt Schilling get your Hall of Fame vote on a binary ballot?
Keith Law: No.

Dr. Bob: Negotiations are a two-way street. Is there a chance that the top FAs are getting several terrific offers and the players are just turning them down?
Keith Law: I feel like we’d have heard about one of them if that had happened.

Todd: Yankees Domingo Avevedo have any future in the bigs? Hes already 24 and hasnt been promoted up
Keith Law: Reliever. Might be a good one.

Andrew: As a microbiologist, I can’t thank you enough for all that you do in promoting vaccine safety and squashing trolls. It’s always great when somebody with as large of a following as you do stands up for what is right (and scientifically proven). It’s incredibly frustrating when the deniers seem to put more stock in the claims who have no scientific background (reminds me of a certain group reveling in electing a president with no experience or qualifications whatsoever).
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I feel like my platform, modest as it is, is a responsibility, and using it to remind people that science is real seems like a good use of it.

Tim: Does Boras take a credibility hit over the Murray situation? He had to rep to the A’s Murray was fully committed to playing baseball for them to have picked him where they did and agree he could still play football. Is his word any less valuable with teams goin forward?
Keith Law: Doubt it. Not sure why you’d pin this on Boras when the kid changed his mind after having an out-of-nowhere fall season on the gridiron.

Todd: You still believe or think Luis Medina can garner command?
Keith Law: I think it’s possible. Delivery and athleticism are there. But it’s a long way to average.

JP: Breakout player column coming this month or March?
Keith Law: That column is always in late March.

john: curious, are you an actual fan of any team, or just an observer?
Keith Law: Haven’t been a fan of any team since I left the Blue Jays. Can’t be in this job.

The Darkness: Can a healthy Kyle Lewis jump back into the top 100?
Keith Law: Unlikely, but not impossible. Lot of missed development time there.

US Grant: Who do you like in the Democratic primary at this early stage?
Keith Law: I don’t. I really just can’t at this point – too much posturing, too little discussion of policy. And way too much discussion of bullshit like likeability.

Steve: Why is Roma going to win best picture? This is the exact reason why no one watches the Oscars anymore
Keith Law: Because it was the best picture? If *that* is your complaint about the Oscars, we are not going to line up very well.

Jerry: RE: Musicians who turned out to be jerks (and worse). I’m a child of the 70s and 80s. I destroyed my Nugent and KISS CDs when I found out what kind of disgusting POS’s Nugent and Gene Simmons were.
Keith Law: Nugent is one I never understood because his music always sucked. So people overlooked him marrying an underage girl so he could legally sleep with her, which is gross no matter what music he makes, but I particularly can’t understand people stanning for him when the music is crap.

Colin: Seriously – how upset/jealous are you that Gritty doesn’t belong to MLB
Keith Law: He’s great. Very jealous.

Pat D: Regarding Trump’s tweet that referenced The Trail of Tears, do you think he actually knows what it was, our just that his hero Jackson caused it?
Keith Law: 100% that he knows what it is.

Brett: Hi Keith. With every news organization/channel slanted either left or right (how much of slant varies by network), do you think there is a strong appetite in this country for a truly unbiased news channel that is 100% committed to factual news only. Take 100% of opinions out of things and only sticks to facts. I bet, if done right, with out current political climate, it would be the most watched news channel within one year.
Keith Law: Well, I don’t agree that “every news organization” is slanted, and I definitely don’t believe that purely unbiased facts-only news would sell.

Mac: I read Ashe Russell is going to try and make a comeback. Great if he can but unfortunately have to think the odds are pretty low.
Keith Law: Almost nobody comes back from the yips and his case was severe.

Jimbo: Chances are nobody makes a Juan Soto type rise, but who is your pick to shoot up the ranks this year?
Keith Law: People ask this sort of question regularly but I answered it – every team has at least one prospect I’ve tabbed as a ‘sleeper’ to make a big jump in 2019.

Bobba: Do you think Harper and Machado are reluctant to commit to Philly because each would prefer to play somewhere else if the money is even somewhat similar? Given ownership’s ludicrous statement at the beginning of the process about going “stupid,” it sure seems like the agents could get some pretty good numbers out of Klentak and the Phillies by now. I just don’t think it’s either player’s first choice destination…
Keith Law: Don’t believe that for a second either. Good city, fans will show up when the team wins, they’re competitive now. What’s not to like?

Rueben: Was Jacob Degrom ever a top 100 prospect back when he was a prospect?
Keith Law: No. Made my Mets top 10 one year (for which I got grief from Mets fans for having him over … Hansel Robles, maybe?) but that was it.

Chris: Speaking of the psychotic anti-vaxxers, did you hear up here in Maine they slipped false vaxx side effect flyers w federal and state CDC emblems on them into kids products at Wal Mart? Atrocious.
Keith Law: I did. I’d like to see the people involved prosecuted … that sounds like terrorism to me.

Jeries: Who do you like more at this point: Reynaldo Lopez or Lucas Giolito?
Keith Law: Giolito.

Jim: Do you read true crime books? If so, any recommendations?
Keith Law: I don’t, sorry.

Jeff: Do you have any confidence that Domingo German can still be an effective starter for the Yankees? He has shown spurts of dominance, but obviously has been very inconsistent.
Keith Law: No, never thought he was a starter.

Rueben: No one watches the Oscars or Steve doesn’t watch the oscars?
Keith Law: Lot of that. “Nobody does X” usually means “I don’t do X.”

Rob K: It seems like the problem with the past two off seasons is that profitability is no longer correlated to winning, at least in the short term. Maybe it never was but owners cared less about profit. I don’t know. Do you see any realistic rule changes to incentivize winning? I for one would love to see publicly traded companies disallowed from owning a majority stake in a team.
Keith Law: That is largely true due to leaguewide revenues from MLBAM, and revenue sharing, but I don’t know if that’s necessarily true in the long term – there was a large windfall in there from the sale to Disney.

Desperate Os Fan: When did you stop beating your wife? (Rehtorical. This phrase popped in my head when they guy asked you about being unfaithful. Worth a Google if you have no idea what I’m talking about)
Keith Law: That came to my mind too. Which always reminds me of the awful ‘joke’ a reporter told about Wes Gardner in the ’80s when he was accused of beating his wife – you could google it, but it is offensive – and how no one at the time seemed to realize why the joke wasn’t funny.

DH: Re: social media fix. I agree that we want dissenters in authoritarian countries to have a voice. Problem is, authoritarians have figured out the game and flood the zone with bs so the truth is drowned out. These platforms have a responsibility.
Keith Law: Hang on, Jack will be right with you after he finishes polishing Candace Owens’ shoes.

AZ: Who do you think should win Best Actress among those nominated? My pick would be Gaga
Keith Law: In order of the five nominated, I would go Colman, Gaga, Aparicio, (gap), McCarthy, Close. I thought Rosamund Pike deserved a nomination for A Private War.

Ken Lay: Did you ever like Pantera? I loved them in high school…..that hasn’t aged well. And in hindsight, there were plenty of signs in the 90s that I overlooked as well.
Keith Law: Never a fan … their influence exceeded the appeal of their music.

Ryan: I’m a big fan of Alek Thomas, but your report is the first I have read that he may have 25 or more home run power, which is fantastic. He sounds like a potential star in the making. Do you expect to see him on the top 100 next year? Thank you!
Keith Law: I do, assuming he does what I think he’ll do in full-season ball.

HugoZ: The stadium is costing Cobb County taxpayers a net of around 5 million in a budget of 405 million. You really think it’s the biggest part of their budget problems?
Keith Law: Did I say it was the biggest part of their budget problems? I don’t think I did. I do think $5 million pays a lot of ‘loser teachers,’ though.

Ken : ever a fan of the band Cinderella?
Keith Law: Yeah, guilty. One of my favorites during the hair-metal halcyon days.

AGirlHasNoName: St Louis really is boring, right?
Keith Law: That whole meme has cracked me up because it is probably my least favorite city to visit among the 26 MLB metro areas. Not a great food scene, not a lot to do, and on a personal level not many people I know in the area.

Andrew: Are you an advocate of moving the pitching mound back?
Keith Law: Aw hell no.

Hank: Re: Nugent: He didn’t marry her, he became her legal guardian! Even grosser.
Keith Law: Oh god that’s right. And her parents signed off on it! I’m sure that was all legal and cool.

JP: Rather have Devers or Andujar for the next 5 years?
Keith Law: Devers.

Ryan: Just from reading your report on Chisholm, you seem really high on the hit tool. Are you at all concerned about the strikeout rate? Thank you!
Keith Law: I am not.

Marques: I’m half black, your candor on race motivating our current political positions gives me hope that some white people can hear the blaring dog horn. Thank you. Do you think the others really can’t hear it or are that many people cool with it?
Keith Law: I think many people who look like me and grew up like me are fine just ignoring the dog whistles and fog horns of modern racism because it doesn’t touch their daily lives. I’m hopeful enough people hear them to snuff out this rising tide of white nationalism before it becomes entrenched in Congress like it has in many European legislatures.

Bobba: Nick Pivetta improved his control to the point he shaved a full point off his walk rate, but he still gives of a lot of hard hit balls. Does he take another step forward this season?
Keith Law: Not without a better pitch for LHB.

Brett : O/U Games played in the bigs this year for Byron Buxton: 130
Keith Law: I’ll take the over.

Garrett: What is your max spend on restaurant dining? French Laundry levels?
Keith Law: That’s like $200something a person, right? I’ve done that once in my life. I have bought dinner for friends where I paid $200 for the two of us.

JP: T/F: Troy Tulowitski
Keith Law: F.
Keith Law: Although that would make him Froy Fulowifzki, I guess.

Gabe: Wouldn’t pick trading or swapping be a better marketing tool than bringing in Kyler Murray? I mean hell I’d be excited to watch you go on TV to talk about how you saw say both Dombrowski and Cashman at a game for the perceived #1 pick. Now that would be must watch TV
Keith Law: Yes, and it would make the draft better to watch, too. Don’t we all remember David Stern saying “there has been a trade…” for the Chris Webber/Penny Hardaway deal on draft night? (Bet you didn’t think I’d pull that reference out.)

Eric: Hey (white) people, stop saying “I don’t see color.” It’s a stupid trope that’s insincere and untrue. It is 100 percent OK to admit you do see color. It is not OK to dismiss what those of color are saying affects them, though.
Keith Law: It’s also impossible to not see color.

JP: Rank ‘em: Sopranos, The Wire, Breaking Bad, The Americans
Keith Law: The only show on that list I’ve watched for even two seasons is The Wire.

Fan boy : Thoughts on the potential 3 batter minimum rule?
Keith Law: I was good with two. I’d also like to see managers required to designate five relievers as ‘active’ for each game, and only able to use other pitchers if the game goes extra innings (or perhaps if the starter is injured early?).

Tim A: Most likely bust from 2018 MLB draft??
Keith Law: Too soon for that. I hate that term, BTW. You’d have to be bad for a long time before I hang that word on you.

Jake: What’s the logic behind no vaccination? I know they don’t cause autism, but even if you believe that was a possible risk, is autism worse than polio, brain damage, death, etc.?
Keith Law: That’s their belief – or that vaccines cause other ailments. It’s all bullshit, fomented by people who are seriously delusional or who want to sell you panaceas.

Pat: I always Cinderella after Night Songs & Tesla as more “blues” type bands than hair metal.
Keith Law: That’s why I liked their style and Whitesnake’s more than the pop-oriented acts like Poison or Winger. All horribly dated now, and I assume most of them have died from particulate matter clogging their alveoli, but at the time that was what we had.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you all, as always, for reading, for your questions, and for all of the kind words about my work on the prospect rankings. I may have to move the chat day next week if I do travel to see some draft players, so look for an announcement on Twitter/Facebook/Instagram. Happy Valentine’s Day and have a great holiday weekend.

My prospect rankings package continues its rollout this week for ESPN+ subscribers with the AL Central and AL East team-by-team reports. My ranking of all 30 farm systems went up Monday, and the top 100 went up last week.

I also have a new review up at Paste, looking at the light engine-builder Gizmos, a family-friendly game that mimics the mechanics of longer and more complex titles

Keith Law: That’s my story and I am stuck with it. Klawchat.

Trevor: KLaw – Are you at all interested in the arbitration hearings? Seems hard to believe the highest paid AAV this offseason might end up being Arenado at $26M
Keith Law: Not really interested. The clubs have plenty of money, and most players in the process are underpaid relative to their on-field worth.

Dr. Bob: You voted for Fred McGriff. He’s a ways down the list in bWAR or JAWS. Since that’s only a starting point for the discussion, what tipped it for you?
Keith Law: I didn’t vote for McGriff. I would have considered him on an unlimited ballot, but he didn’t make my 10.

addoeh: Anyone have a worse off-season than the Cubs? One of their owners is clueless and also a racist. They handled the Russell situation about as poorly as possible. They claim to have to have no budget to sign anyone. And you ranked them as having the 29th ranked farm system.
Keith Law: Other than that, it’s been a great winter on the north side.

Tyler: Hey Keith! What do you see in Taylor Trammell that puts him in your top 15 prospects in baseball? Thanks
Keith Law: I wrote an entire capsule on him, and each of the top 100 prospects, and then 14 more in the just missed column.

Anik Patel: There have been a lot of disgruntled fans when it comes to the blue jays management since AA has left. Do you feel the fans are justified or are they not looking at the big picture
Keith Law: That’s too broad a question. What are their issues? The club operating on a mid-market payroll? That’s on ownership.

Bmosc: When do you ultimately think Machado & Harper sign? Think they’res starting to sweat it out a bit at this point?
Keith Law: I would guess one or both sign in the next two weeks. Some team has to blink and realize the calendar is working against them. If the Phillies get to Opening Day with all that payroll room, the hope of contention, some bad press right now around Kapler, and neither of those two free agents, that’s a failure.

@BleedCubBlue311: Is it actually possible this late in the off-season to implement the DH in the NL?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. If I were an NL GM without an existing in-house candidate and they changed the rules now, I’d be a little miffed.

JP: has your opinion on Curt Schilling’s HOF candidacy changes over the past few years (for obvious reasons)?
Keith Law: I had said in the past I thought I would vote for him, and then when I considered his case in total this winter, I chose not to vote for him, so yes, it has changed.

Adam: Other reputable prospect outlets have more than one person working on the team and overall lists. This allows them an opportunity to compare notes and, theoretically, shrinks their error margins. Being a one man crew, how do you go about managing the workload to make sure you have the most available information and process all that feedback as accurately as possible? Do you share your list with noted friends Longenhagen and Mayo for feedback before publishing?
Keith Law: I talk to a broad range of scouts and executives and share my list with many people across baseball front offices, going through multiple iterations to get feedback before publishing. I don’t think having more people would improve the process or that it shrinks anyone’s error margins; I’ve seen lists on ‘reputable’ sites with obvious mistakes in rankings.

Michael : hey keith. really nice job on the prospect stuff over the past couple of weeks. wanted to ask you a question in re: to the team farm rankings. you’ve got miami at the bottom, but wondering how much that ranking could shift if they picked up the #50 and #100 prospects on your list for JTR. do two propects like that push them up one spot or like ten spots? thanks!
Keith Law: Maybe one or two spots, not ten spots for sure.

kc: Why do you always seem down on A’s farm? They had some guys in top 100 but you still don’t like overall.. Thx
Keith Law: Because a farm system is a lot more than guys in the top 100. Their top ten and org report will run tomorrow, and even the end of their top ten fails off very quickly, and that’s with a couple of pitchers in that top ten still on the mend from TJ.

RubenaLowe: Hey Keith, love the chats……….are the mariners prospects so bad outside of the ‘big 3’ that it couldn’t propel them to the upper half? Gilbert anything more than a backend starter?
Keith Law: I’d like to see what Gilbert looks like this year, now that he’s fully recovered from mono and in a pro system. In 2017 he looked more like a future above-average starter. But yes, the rest of the system was among the worst in baseball before those trades.

Luigi: Now that you’ve had a few months to play with it, how are you liking your Uuni pizza oven? Does its outer surface get ungodly hot?
Keith Law: I love it but haven’t used it in a few weeks because it’s just too cold outside to run in and out while cooking. The outside is way too hot to touch (yes, I’ve nicked it, and it hurts).

Jimbo: Is it fair to be down on AA as a Braves fan? Donaldson has been his most exciting move with Gausman being bumped aside in the playoffs & the Kemp deal being a creative/boring money shuffle. The prospects that are drawing praise came from previous regimes, his team couldn’t/didn’t sign Stewart. I get that the offseason has been slow for the whole league but isn’t that more reason for a mid level team like the Braves to pounce? Please tell me I’m crazy for being disappointed with it all
Keith Law: OK, you’re crazy for being disappointed with it all.

CH: Any chance Machado or Harper sit out this year? I think we’re getting there.
Keith Law: Zero.

Anthony: What do you view the likelihood that someone like George Valera ends up in the top 100 next year? Possible candidate for a Kirilloff-esque jump?
Keith Law: You could say that about many seven-figure July 2nd signings who haven’t played yet.

JR: is crappy cheap beer fighting with crappy cheap corn syrup on social media the most American thing ever?
Keith Law: Yep. I thought those ads were so very dumb. I don’t avoid Miller Lite or Coors Lite or whatever beers they were after because of their ingredients. I avoid them because they taste terrible.

Kevin: Thoughts on the news about Gabe Kapler’s time in LA with the Dodgers?
Keith Law: Not sure we actually learned anything new here – the victim didn’t report the sexual assault to the team, so while I assume she told the truth, you can’t fault the team for failing to act on information they didn’t have. What was a mistake, and deserves scrutiny, was the failure to punish the players who furnished alcohol to an underage girl (to the point that she became ill). That alone should have triggered a suspension and a police report.

Geoff: What do you make of the Reds reportedly trying to move India?
Keith Law: I had a front office executive from another team tell me flat-out they were trying to move India, and then another source told me this week they aren’t trying to move him, but that he’s the best prospect the Reds will discuss in a major deal like a Kluber trade. Senzel, Trammell, and Greene are off the table, so if you’re looking to do something big with Cincinnati, India is the best prospect remaining.

Keith: Based on yours and the other prospect lists, Nick Madrigal is one of the most divergent prospects with ranges from 15 – ~113. Is it just a disagreement over power potential or is more going on here? What should we be paying attention to as an indicator to track which way his development is going?
Keith Law: No reputable list has him top 20; the highest I’ve seen is 41. He’s a very small second baseman without power projection. Tough to profile that guy as an above-average regular.

Claus: Does Luis Garcia (Nationals) have the tools and upside to jump into your top 100 list in 2020? If so, what would he need to improve on?
Keith Law: No, probably not.

Teddy Ballgame: how would you resolve the reliever parade problem in baseball? Do you even see it as a problem? Shoukd MLB be trying to get away from one out relievers because it’s a bad viewer experience? Do you miss pinch hitters like I
Keith Law: My issue with one-batter relievers is less aesthetics and more practical: If every pitching change means a commercial break, and MLB won’t shrink commercial breaks, then we need fewer pitching changes.

Troy: Dubon anything more than utility guy?
Keith Law: Could be a regular at 2b. I wouldn’t count him out.

Anik Patel: Why is Cleveland not going for another run into the playoffs? I understand the payroll is an issue but they have subtracted quite a bit from their lineup when they are clearly the strongest team in the AL central
Keith Law: I think they view the division as winnable without upgrades. I’m not sure I agree, and they should certainly be trying to upgrade their OF.

Mike: Given his injury history is it time to consider Jonathon Loaisiga a full time reliever or is it best to still try and develop him has a starter?
Keith Law: Still has the stuff to start, and they could use him in that role.

Allan: The Rockies have baffled me by not allowing McMahon or Tapia to consistently play in the majors. What is going on in the FO?
Keith Law: I’m afraid they’ll block Rodgers too. I don’t know what their philosophy is on these players.

JP: is Clint Frazier an everyday LF for a contending club? he can still fake CF?
Keith Law: He’s never been able to play CF.

javier: who needs harper/machado more: a team in a championship window now like the cubs, phillies or a team multiple pieces away like wsox/padres who normally dont have a shot for top FA competing with yankees/boston/etc
Keith Law: I think the Phillies have to get one of those two guys. Otherwise, what’s the point of clearing all that payroll?

FiveForFighting: If you are a team like the White Sox whose window of contention probably isn’t open yet, do you pursue a Harper or a Machado even if signing them to a long-term deal includes an opt-out after, say, Year 2 or Year 3?
Keith Law: If the AAV is low enough, sure. And they could contend this year with one of those guys, maybe adding a starter, and then one hopes some big leaps from young guys already in place. I said before they’re not that far off from contention.

Pat D: As a diehard Yankees fan, I keep an interest in prospects who they trade or lose. Luis Torrens’ situation fascinates me. Can he ever be a viable major leaguer? If not, what would you say ruined him more, the shoulder injury or being stashed on San Diego’s roster the whole season?
Keith Law: The shoulder injury. I’ve heard positive things from last year, to the point where he might resurface as at least a quality backup.

AGirlHasNoName: All that off-season stuff about the Cubs being true, would you still bet against them winning a tough division this year?
Keith Law: Are you asking me Cubs vs the NL Central field? I’ll take the field.

Nathan: You’re invited to a friend’s house. While there, they suggest a game of Monopoly while listening to Bruce Springsteen’s entire collection. Do you A) grit your teeth and bear it B) politely decline C) offer a different suggestion D) find a new friend
Keith Law: D.

Willie Dewit: Is it possible for you to hate a TV show, band, or movie but at the same time realize you are the minority and it’s probably pretty good? Game of Thones, U2 and Dances w Wolves for me.
Keith Law: Sure. Much of what we think of art is subjective. People whose opinions I respect think Breaking Bad is one of the greatest TV shows of all time. I don’t see the appeal.

Anik Patel: Thoughts on Auston Matthews signing a 5 year extension?
Keith Law: I had to look to see if the Rays had given Austin Meadows a five-year extension. Apparently this person plays hockey.

Santiago: Hey Keith, Orioles fan here. What are your thoughts on Grayson Rodriguez?
Keith Law: Orioles team report went up Tuesday and he is mentioned at lenght.

Jerry: Do you see Alvarez as another potential 1B bust for the Astros along the lines of Singleton and AJ Reed?
Keith Law: Singleton is in his own category of bust, for largely non-baseball reasons. Could Alvarez fail to hit MLB pitching like Reed has (in limited trials)? Sure. He’s not very athletic, 1b only and not good there, and I do have concerns about his future hit tool.

Erik: what’s the ETA on Wander Franco with the caveat the Rays will probably want him to “work on his defense”
Keith Law: I said in his capsule he could see the majors before he’s 20.

Mike: You read Ken Rosenthal’s latest on rule changes? Are you a fan of universal DH? Pitch clock? What about forcing pitchers to face 3 batters?
Keith Law: Yes on universal DH. Hard no on pitch clock. A two-batter minimum would probably serve the same purpose.

Geoff: T/F: Spending money is the new market inefficiency.
Keith Law: Kind of true. I believe too many teams are concerned with getting a “good deal” rather than considering whether a contract could provide sufficient ROI by the player getting you to the postseason, which gives a large revenue bump.

John: Tyler O’Neill and Dakota Hudson for Corey Kluber? Fair or Indians need more?
Keith Law: Cleveland would laugh at that.

Ben : Why is the HOF ballot limited to 10 votes? If you think a person is a HOF’er should it matter if there are 10 more qualified candidates?
Keith Law: Ask* the Hall of Fame. Their call, not the writers’. (*Typo fixed!)

EuanDewar: Do you enjoy Cormac McCarthy’s work and are there any authors in that vein you’d suggest to check out next?
Keith Law: Yes, I liked Blood Meridian and the Road (well, ‘liked’ might be the wrong word there) quite a bit. If you like his settings, you might read Lonesome Dove, but I think McCarthy’s gift is in exploring the darkest sides of human nature, which would point to noir writers like James Cain or Jim Thompson.

xxx(yyy): do you have a go to polenta recipe?
Keith Law: I use Alton Brown’s basic recipe – start with a diced onion sweated in some olive oil, add 4 parts liquid to 1 part polenta, cook in a 350 oven for 35 minutes, stirring a few times, and then finish with 2-3 Tbsp butter and up to 1 cup grated Parmiggiano-Reggiano.

Bmosc: As a fellow coffee aficionado, do you buy your beans locally or online, and if online, who is your go-to vendor?
Keith Law: I get a lot of coffee locally from Royal Mile and Re-Animator, and also buy coffee when I travel.

Ben : I’m surprised the Red Sox farm system isn’t competing with the Orioles for the worst in the league!!
Keith Law: I see more upside of guys already in that system than I do of guys in the O’s system.

Chip Dipson: What are your thoughts on Willie Calhoun? Might he still be a useful major leaguer, even without a defensive home?
Keith Law: Useful, yes, definitely. Not sure he’s a regular, and very low chance he’s more than that. That’s why he didn’t make the top 100 before 2018.

Phil: Who has the higher upside between Dustin May, Mitchell White and Dennis Santana?
Keith Law: Only one of them made my top 100…

Chris: Didn’t find Yordan Alvarez any of your lists. What’s your thoughts on him? Too risky of a hitting profile given he’s not a great defender?
Keith Law: See above. “Not a great defender” is kind. Might be a DH. Not an elite hitter, either.

Jamison: Why wouldn’t the Cubs be in on Harper or Machado?
Keith Law: Because they have no mo…. no mone… sorry, i just can’t say it without laughing.

Keone Kela: Odds of Taylor Hearn being able to stick in the rotation long-term?
Keith Law: Nonzero, but low, maybe 20%.

Dr. Bob: Key line from Michael Baumann in Ringer RE: Kapler: “Despite MLB’s efforts to combat domestic violence and sexual assault within the sport, its response to stories that involve violence against women tends to concern the player first. What can the player learn? Is he sorry? When can he return to the field? Perhaps there’s a suspension, maybe an apology, but the needs of the survivor usually take a back seat to the need of the sport to put the matter behind it.” I think you have been beating this drum as well. We all need to.
Keith Law: I agree with all of that. It’s the wrong way to think about crimes against women. And the fact that one of the players involved in the underage drinking incident was a significant prospect should have no impact on how the team or league handles such a matter, but in this case it is indisputable that it did.

Jason: Do you think Carson Fulmer could become a late-inning reliever? Feel like he could use a change of scenery.
Keith Law: Only been saying that since he was in high school.

Jerry: BR Pythagorean says 2018 Astros underachieved by 6 games. Only Astros regular who may have had a career year was Bregman. Assuming nothing catastrophic, is anything less than 100 wins a disappointing 2019?
Keith Law: You should never bank on 100+ wins as a threshold for success; it takes some good fortune to get there. If they win the division, and they should, then be happy.

Lester: Do you think Ronny Mauricio has a greater than 50 percent chance of sticking at SS in a vacuum? Not sure how that changes in a system with Amed and Gimenez.
Keith Law: Yes.

AGirlHasNoName: No, I am asking if you had to pick one team to win that division, would you pick the Cubs? Maybe a 35% chance, but still better than Brewers or Cardinals.
Keith Law: Yes, right now I’d give the Cubs the highest odds of the five teams, but certainly under 50%.

Pat D: My mother told me she was having a back and forth discussion with a friend over last night’s SOTU and her friend said it was much better to listen to Trump than “the traitor Obama.” I told her to unfriend that person, even without asking her to defend that statement because that person is clearly delusional. Agree?
Keith Law: Yes. You can’t reason with the irrational.

JG: Thank you for the write up on the AL Central prospects. For the Twins, you like Enlow as a potential #2 or #3 if he develops??
Keith Law: Yes, either.

Macey: You just had your first typo I’ve ever seen.
Keith Law: Well now I have to go find and fix it.

Rick Sanchez: Adell appears to be in a similar spot to Moncada a few years back as an uber-athlete with contact and pitch recognition issues. Do you see Adell overcoming those issues and reaching star status?
Keith Law: Not similar at all. Adell’s issues are a function of youth and inexperience.

Brad: Could Cionel Perez factor into the Astros rotation this year?
Keith Law: In theory, yes, but I think he’s behind too many other guys – maybe 8th or 9th on the depth chart right now.

Dan: Are there any foods you just won’t make because their too time-consuming/not worth the effort? I’m about to give up making sourdough bread from starter because it never turns out well and it takes days from start to finish with the slow proofing and starter feeding.
Keith Law: Sure. Even things I love making, like fresh pasta, are once in a blue moon items because of the time required (and the mess … oh god, there is flour everywhere).

Bill: Not a ?
Keith Law: Not an answer.

77Sticks: There seems to be a growing critique that writers shouldn’t analyze free agent signings as good or bad — that doing so takes a pro-management view, and thus is inherently anti-labor, and ignores the fact that owners are billionaires who can afford these contracts. Do you plan on dialing back your criticism or analysis in that regard?
Keith Law: No, because I don’t think that criticism has merit.

Nolan: Let’s say the Padres sign Harper. What would you do then about the *checks notes* 7 outfielders projected to be on the opening day roster? (those seven, as a refresher: Harper, Myers, Margot, Cordero, Reyes, Renfroe, Jankowski)
Keith Law: Of that group, only Margot really has to be there, because he can play centerfield (and does it well), and Harper’s presence isn’t related to that. None of the rest matter if you think you can sign Harper.

Bill: Just wanted you to hear i pay for espn bc of your content exclusively….also have purchased quite a few board games based on your reviews. Please keep doing what you are doing.
Keith Law: Thank you. That’s very kind of you.

Chris: Have you played any gloomhaven?
Keith Law: No, I don’t play role-playing games.

Mike : How do you feel about the DH being in the National League as quick as this year ?
Keith Law: Again, I favor it, but this year is going to be too soon.

Pierre: Pete Alonso 30 hrs over under?
Keith Law: He could do it. I’d guess under, but hardly shocked if he gets to 30.

Dave: Not sure if you can/want to talk about it but I have seen writers I respect sing the praises of Idelson. I know part of the problem is dealing with the Board, etc. but allowing a Board member to use company e-mail for statement is a big no-no. Committee stacking for the Baines vote. I really think the HOF needs someone who can lead in the future.
Keith Law: I have gotten along well with Jeff when we’ve interacted, but I’m glad to see the potential for a change here, for the reasons you identified. If the writers are going to choose the Hall of Famers, then let the writers choose the Hall of Famers. Don’t game ballot rules to try to prevent Bonds and Clemens from getting in. Don’t stack committees to get certain players in.

CH: Do you think MIA is getting weak-ish offers for Realmuto bc they said yes to nothing for Yelich? Can Brinson recover at all from LY?
Keith Law: I think they’re getting lower offers than they expected because teams value framing now and Realmuto is not a good framer.

Pierre: Justin Dunn in mariners rotation 2nd half ?
Keith Law: Unlikely. Maybe a September callup.

Doug: Padre fans are in love with Franmil Reyes? Can he repeat his success with the bat from last year? Any possible growth? Or a regression candidate? Thanks!
Keith Law: With his approach I don’t think there’s growth ahead.

Macey: Why do you think the Trump scandals don’t really stick? His family was proven to have cheated on hundreds of millions in taxes and it’s probably something 98% of people haven’t even heard of. Is everyone just waiting on Mueller or is it a bed of needles situation? It’s really the most amazing thing about him, how he gets away with so much.
Keith Law: It’s clear that maybe 30% of voters wouldn’t care what he did, because they favor policies he and the modern GOP support (which I think veer from many GOP platforms of previous generations).

JR: I understand teams looking for a deal, but are you surprised by the complete lack of discussion on some guys? Have you heard Keuchel or Adam Jones names associated with any team? MLBtraderumors twitter account used to be a must pay attention too everyday for chatter, but there is almost no talk on some guys. It’s weird.
Keith Law: Jones wasn’t on my top 50 free agents – he hasn’t been a productive regular in several years. Lack of a market for him disappoints me, as I like Jones the person quite a bit, but I am not surprised. Keuchel’s lack of a market surprises me since he was one of the best starters available. Even if there are durability questions, he’d help a lot of contenders right now.

Doug: Michael Baez a reliever for you? Assuming I will find out the answer in 4 days.
Keith Law: There’s a much higher belief across the industry this year that he’s a reliever than there was a year ago.

laney adams: Brandon Lowe seems like a very good and underrated prospect. Do you think he wins the 2b job or splits time in OF?
Keith Law: I want him to win the 2b job. He’s their best internal option.

Roberto Kelly: Do you see these old posts from millennials who called everything “gay” in the early 2000s coming back to ruin their careers? And what is being done in the present day that we might deem problematic 30 years from now?
Keith Law: The cases I’ve seen have gone past people just using the word “gay;” those same people have used a slur against gays that starts with f (which, helpfully, comes in three- and six-letter variations!). That word was never okay, in any context. If that’s on your twitter feed, even from ten years ago, delete it. Just search your own name and those words and delete all such posts.

lurs darkvert: How do the Reds eventually solve the PT with Winker and Kemp? Logically wouldn’t you want to give the most PT to the younger and much more talented player
Keith Law: I’d play Winker and bench Kemp until there’s a need for him. Seemed to me like they added his contract to make the deal happen and so the Dodgers would take Bailey back.

Mark: Do you think what Josh Bell has shown so far is what he is?
Keith Law: There is raw power in there he has yet to show in games.

Chris J: Just for the sake of context and comparisons – if you expected Kieboom to be at least passable defensively at SS, what sort of a range might he have fallen in your top 100? Thanks, Keith!
Keith Law: Higher, but where depends on what kind of defensive SS I thought he was. As it is, I see zero chance he’s a regular at short in the majors.

John: Did you see Bill DeWitt’s comment to the STL PD regarding players not being signed? “It’s not like people are hoarding money and making a lot of money in this business” That’s an exact quote. That’s so insulting to us fans.
Keith Law: It’s just plain false. I hope the paper pointed out the inaccuracy of the claim.

Darren: If you were just hired to be GM of the Rockies and were stuck with D Murphy at 1B, whom would you want to get the every day at bats at 2B. Hampson or McMahon?
Keith Law: I don’t think McMahon’s going to be a very good defender at second, or even an adequate one. I’d probably play Hampson there and find a way to get McMahon more AB at first.

Oscar Proud: Should Northam resign?
Keith Law: Absolutely.

Ben: What do you think of Schultz not wanting to be called a “billionaire” but rather a “person of means”? Do you think the wealthy should pay more taxes in this country?
Keith Law: Taxing wealth is complicated – you can move wealth, and you can hide it. Taxing income is more straightforward and easier to police.

Josh: Not a question, just really love seeing you dunk on Twitter folks that try to drag you over things that they clearly can’t comprehend and resort to petty insults (that are usually inaccurate). Keep it up!
Keith Law: Just another free service I offer.

Chris J: On Adam Jones – do you think there is any hesitation from some teams based on Jones’s willingness to speak out on certain topics?
Keith Law: Not at all.

xxx(yyy): where do you go to find good longform articles? right now i use some combo of The Sunday Longread (Don Van Natta Jr) and digg.com (reinvented from what it used to be)
Keith Law: I get them from lots of sources. You’ll notice I often link to longreads published in the Guardian, and some from longreads.com.

Mark: I recently re-watched Eddie Murphy Raw (might have been Delirious) and couldn’t believe how many times he dropped the 6 letter version of the F word. And he became a star of children’s movies, now his career would be over before it started.
Keith Law: Yeah, Delirious was, at its time, a seminal comedy album, one that helped make him a superstar and I think defined comic sensibilities for a large swath of listeners. (I knew much of that set by heart from listening to it so many times.) It is absolutely beyond the pale today – the gay-bashing is intolerable, both the use of the f-word as a slur and the entire attitude towards gays as freaks or deviants or simply objects of derision.

Matt: Do you think the Phillies should fire Kapler given the recent news from his time in L.A.?
Keith Law: No, not based on what I know about the situation.

Andy: Should capital gains be taxed at the same rate as income? I have an econ degree and I really don’t know the correct answer to this.
Keith Law: I don’t think there is a correct answer. Lowering the rate was supposed to spur investment and thus economic growth. I think it spurred investment but drove wealth (via cap gains) for a small percentage of the population, rather than growing the larger economy in a way that would benefit all strata.

Matt: I think a big issue that people miss with regards to wealth is that billionaires don’t actually have cash. Like Schultz doesn’t have billions sitting in a bank. It’s all in stock. So it’s harder to tax that unless he cashes the stock out.
Keith Law: Also true. If he cashes it out and spends it, there should be tax revenue from whatever he purchases.

Ridley Kemp: The New Yorker’s review of Roma dinged the film because Cuarón didn’t provide enough context for American viewers. Is that a legit complaint, or should the reviewer have perhaps taken their own lack of knowledge as a cue to pick up an effing book and learn a thing or two? (not that I have strong opinions on this or anything)
Keith Law: That’s a bad take. I’m surprised the New Yorker of all publications would run that.

Darren: Keith, I have a request. I know you are tough on ranking 1B due to defense and replacement level, but they provide a lot of offensive value. Would you be willing to add a top 10 1B/DH list of prospects based on offensive capability alone. It would be a golden nugget of an article for your fans that play fantasy baseball. Much Appreciated.
Keith Law: I appreciate the request, but I’m done writing for now. As far as ESPN is concerned, I’m on vacation for the next week.

Pat: Not hating, just curious. You had Diaz top 50 midseason and then dropped him 70+ spots. What could have possibly changed so much from July until now? Or am I thinking about this in the wrong way?
Keith Law: You are thinking about this the wrong way. The lists are not sequential; they are organic, and I build them from scratch each winter.

Lyle: Your board games list is for 2-hour or less games (and I understand your reasoning) but do you have any favorite games that are in the 4-hour (or more) range?
Keith Law: No. A four hour game is work.

Blackface was common in the 80s: I lived in the south, but am from the north. I had colleagues and friends who were reporters, attorneys and in one case a social worker who wore blackface to parties. I would never have done so … but I’m not fast to judge them now, 35 years later.
Keith Law: I am. I’ve said this before, but I remember an episode of a bad TV sitcom, Gimme a Break!, that explained why blackface was wrong – the youngest daughter dressed up Joey Lawrence’s character with blackface, and the late Nell Harper (an African-American actress) dressed her down for it by saying (paraphrasing) “I never thought I’d see the day when I heard you say the word n—–.” That had to be around 1985, on a major American television network. So don’t fucking tell me you didn’t know it was wrong, because I am not here for that bullshit.

DR: Why build annual lists from scratch each year rather than look at them as (shudders) “living” lists? Is this a conscious decision? I see each having pros/cons
Keith Law: They’re not living lists. Do you really want me to skew a list because I don’t want to drop a player by more than X spots, even if in my view and the industry’s the player’s value has changed by far more than that?
Keith Law: The point is to give you the most accurate list I can compile, using my own evaluations and those of industry sources I trust, that represents the players as they stand right now.

Greg: Ever been to Buffalo ? Any place to eat you really liked?
Keith Law: Yes, one spot I remember – a diner, maybe the Lake Effect Diner? Really good.

Adam: Hey man. No question here, just thanks for doing this. It’s clear you appreciate the people who read your work.
Keith Law: I do, thank you. I understand some people choose not to pay for my work, and that is their right, but I want to try to honor people who do make that choice and enable me to do this for a living. I appreciate all of you who shell out some of your cash to read my words and hear my thoughts. That is why this prospect rankings package gets longer and more detailed every year – the more I can deliver to readers, the better the chance you’ll believe you got your money’s worth.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week, but before I sign off, some quick administrative notes. I’m doing a Reddit AMA tomorrow on r/baseball at 1 pm ET. I may sneak in a Periscope as well, as long as I get a few things done before then. The team-by-team reports will run one division a day through Sunday. I’m taking a trip to visit friends in LA, so I will be less available on Twitter than normal, and may skip this week’s links roundup as well, although I expect to post other content to the dish. (I’ll still be posting nonsense on Instagram, as usual). Thank you all, as always, for your questions and for reading.

Starting at 1 pm ET. My top 100 prospects rankings are now up for ESPN+ subscribers. Farm systems rankings and individual team reports run next week.

Keith Law: I got the night on my side. Klawchat.

Connick: Not an ESPN+ subscriber, but a Dodgers fan itching to know if we have anyone on your list who might help the big club this year…pretty please?
Keith Law: ESPN+ is pretty inexpensive. You’ll get my entire prospect rankings, which is some ridiculous amount of content (I think it’s going to cross 40,000 words, which would make it half as long as my book), for $5/month.

Oriole fans : Your thoughts on Y Diaz. who we acquired from the Dodgers?
Keith Law: Average regular without ceiling. Don’t think he stays in center. Probably goes to right, hits for average with 15-18 bombs, solid OBP.

NIcholas: Nico Hoerner had about as good a pro debut as a prospect can have, controlling the strike zone and just mashing. How do you see his bat profiling in the majors? Is he like a .280/.360/.460 kind of guy?
Keith Law: I had to look this up because I couldn’t figure out what you were talking about. He played 14 games this summer. I’d be surprised if he had as much power as you seem to be forecasting.

Steve: Hi Keith, thanks for the list as always, one of my favorite reads of the year. Any thoughts on Emilio Vargas out of ARI? Seems to have blown up last year and has a shot to be in the bigs this year if things go well — could he be a 3/4?
Keith Law: It’s average stuff with deception and extension … those guys do sometimes turn into fourth starters but have a narrower margin for error.

John : Your thoughts on Brady Singer KC P. ? Daniel Lynch is now KC’s best pitching prospect ?
Keith Law: Yes, Lynch is their best pitching prospect. If they redid the draft today, he’d go in the top 10. I have, and have always had, big concerns on Singer’s delivery, both for injury risk and for his ability to get lefties out (command to glove side + lack of a viable CH).

Melo: The Pollock deal feels Ellsbury-ish, though obviously with less financial baggage. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I do not.

Tiana: Is there a regular Keith Law podcast in our futures?
Keith Law: That’s still a long-term plan but ESPN is not supportive.

Art: What’s your take on Mountcastle? Was he much of a consideration for top 100, and are there concerns other than defense/position?
Keith Law: Where does he play? I know MLB had him on the back of their 100, which I can support, but putting him higher would be absurd. He really has no position and hasn’t shown reason to anticipate high OBPs. That said, he can hit, and he’s going to get to some power as he fills out.

Brendan McKay: Does Tampa call me up this summer and let me pitch only ? Or wait?
Keith Law: I think they’ll still use him two ways this year which would imply he doesn’t pitch in the majors.

NY Mets fan : Are we going to regret trading Kelenic in three years ?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jackass Penguin: Giants need to draft a bat or arm at #10 this year?
Keith Law: I mean, if there’s a third option out there, I’d love to hear about it.

AA: Gohara had a rough year – personally and professionally. How far has he fallen out of the top 100?
Keith Law: He’s no longer eligible.

Mike : Would you trade a top 50 player for a proven major leaguer? Top 100 player? Or would you want to build through the draft?
Keith Law: Depends on what you’re getting – how proven, how good, how expensive, how many years of control – and where your team is right now.

Phillies Prospects: Hi Keith – great job on the prospect list – thank you for the chat – Hasely, Bohm, Medina the next 3 Phillies prospects? I know they didn’t just miss from reading ESPN+ but top 200?
Keith Law: Those aren’t the next three, no. Phillies org list runs next week.
Keith Law: Haseley looked bad last year.

Bilal: The Angels have been the picture of mediocrity for the better part of the past decade, despite deep pockets and a large market. Does it start with Arte Moreno?
Keith Law: They’re still recovering a bit from years of gutting the system and the bad contracts given to Hamilton, Wilson, Pujols.

Justin R: How close were Mickey Moniak, Blake Rutherford, or Corey Ray to the top 100?
Keith Law: Not at all.

Justin Y: Trammell looked so good in the Futures Game, why do you think he didn’t have that great a year overall?
Keith Law: He didn’t? Also there’s no way you’re not the same Justin.

Bilal: who’s getting the bulk of the starts behind the plate for the Dodgers by the All-Star break: Barnes, Smith or Ruiz?
Keith Law: Smith.

Kyle KS: Non-prospect question: Do you think more players will sign pre-free agency deals now with the current free agent market not looking like it rewards players appropriately?
Keith Law: I don’t see teams offering those deals as much right now.

CH: Vientos at 60 was a pleasant surprise for Mets fans. Thoughts on where he could/should end the season if he continues to progress?
Keith Law: High-A would be a great outcome. I think Mets fans may hear more about other prospects, so Vientos’ progress wasn’t as readily apparent, but that’s why I’m here.

CH: Are Anthony Kay or David Peterson top 150 guys?
Keith Law: Peterson for sure. Kay I don’t know. I truly don’t rank past ~110.

Steve: Hi Keith, do you think Luis Rengifo’s a plausible long term answer at 2B for LAAoA?
Keith Law: Yes.

David: Here in suburban Portland where everyone is on measles outbreak alert. Sure seems like the world is going backward in every respect. Antivax is child abuse.
Keith Law: Call your state reps – wherever you live – and ask them to eliminate nonmedical exemptions from mandatory vaccination requirements. We tightened them once in Delaware (because I called my state rep and asked for his help) and we’re going to push to tighten them further. Two states ban nonmedical exemptions entirely. The number should be 50.

Darren: What are you thoughts on Aramis Ademan? Was he hurt all year?
Keith Law: Looked awful when he played, totally overmatched at that level.

Darren: What have you heard on James Kaprelian’s return to health. Where do you think Oakland has him start the year, high A?
Keith Law: Supposed to be ready to roll for spring training. Threw in instructs but velocity wasn’t back yet.

Adam D.: With Bart, Luciano, Ramos, Canario and a top-10 pick this year, could you see the Giants jumping up into the top-20 systems by this time next year, or still too shallow even if those guys take significant strides forward in 2019?
Keith Law: I doubt it. I’m less high on Bart or Ramos than you might think from their draft positions.

J5: Ethan Hankins was once considered a 1.1 draft candidate but suffered what was once thought of as a shoulder injury but it turned out to be muscular Word is he fully recovered. Are you still bullish on him? Is he a top 100 guy without the injury?
Keith Law: Delivery questions remain. Stuff wasn’t good when he returned.

Jonathan: Not a question but I love the “Kal Daniels” name drop. I forgot all about him! Man, what a talent.
Keith Law: Personal favorite of mine.

Ben: Keith, really enjoying the new prospect content thus far. How far off was Issac Parades from your list? What are you thoughts on him in general?
Keith Law: Not a consideration.

Kyle: I’ll join in the group of at least 50+ people who are likely to ask you this, would Kyler Murray have had consideration for your Top 100 if he was giving up football?
Keith Law: Absolutely not. This isn’t a ranking of fame. Guy has barely played baseball in the last 3+ years.

YoYoYo: The Rangers are supposedly rebuilding, but have a bad farm system with just a couple of prospects barely making your top 100. Shouldn’t they have made more progress by now? And given the Padres have 10 top 100 prospects, wouldn’t Texas have been better off making A.J. Preller the g.m. and firing Jon Daniels rather than letting Preller go to San Diego?
Keith Law: Yo, yoyoyo, it’s not a bad farm system, three prospects on my top 100 is going to be the average by definition, and there’s depth there. Try the decaf.

J: Yordan Alvarez: Off the top 113 because of position? Overrated bat? Because his body makes all the boys come to the Yordan? (what?)
Keith Law: All of that. Well, the first two. And basically zero projection for growth.

Garrett: How far off was Jahmai Jones from your just missed? Do you think he can bounce back after last year.
Keith Law: Love the player, adequate already at 2b, has to produce.

Max: Are you going to vote for ARod if you’re still voting then?
Keith Law: Yes.

J.P.: I see one of two Luis Garcias on the list. What led to the omission of the Nats’ one?
Keith Law: I don’t know how to answer these questions. The truth is that these players are better prospects than he is. And, FWIW, no source who reviewed earlier versions of my list argued to put him on.

Adam: How far is Contreras from being ready?
Keith Law: Three years seems fair.

Ben: How do you think Cubs fans should look at only placing 1 in your top 100–natural result of graduating talent to a World Series championship, or evidence that they’re not evaluating or developing players well? I’m guessing the former, but wonder what your take is.
Keith Law: It’s fair to ask why they’ve had so many pitching prospects stall or bust, certainly.

AZ: Do you think Carter Stewart would have made your list if he had signed last year?
Keith Law: He was my #2 prospect going into the draft, and I think my top ten from that board all made the 100 or just missed list, so I would say yes.

Eric: Thank you for your work, I subscribe to Insider specifically to read it (and Buster’s work), but I’m literally laughing at all of the Twitter folks that don’t work in baseball figuratively losing their minds over rankings that do not impact their daily lives. This is supposed to be fun, people!
Keith Law: The thing that kills me is people who don’t know much or anything about the players, and who never scouted them or called scouts or executives or analysts to gather info on those players, claiming their opinions on the rankings are somehow equivalent to mine. FOH. You can have an opinion, but please don’t think I’m going to change mine based on yours.

Josh, Chicago (-59 right now): You seem to be highest on Dunn, Kelenic and Sheffield for Mariners with having all three in top 60. Haven’t seen them all that high in any other rankings. What are you seeing with them that others might not?
Keith Law: I wrote 200 or so words on every player. It’s there.

Lale: What are Vlad Jr’s weaknesses? When do you think will be his most productive years?
Keith Law: He’s probably a DH. He’s huge already at 19, not a good defender now, not likely to get better or get lighter. If you asked me which prospect I’d want for 2019, it’d be him. This list looks forward though, and for career value, I couldn’t take him, a likely DH who could get extremely heavy as he ages, over Tatis, a potential above-average defender at short who has a better long-term physical projection. The difference between an average SS and a DH just in positional adjustments for one season (150 games) is about 20 runs. If you think Tatis is just an average defender at short, Vlad Jr would have to outhit him by 20 runs of value just to pull even in total value.

Justin R: I noticed quite a large disparity between some of your top prospects (especially around the 50-70 range) and other lists (BA, BP, MLB Pipeline). I know you don’t look at other lists, but have you identified any differences in the way you evaluate prospects vs. other outlets?
Keith Law: As I said, I think highly of MLB, Baseball America, and Fangraphs. Fangraphs’ guys and I do a lot of in-person evaluations and incorporate that into our rankings. MLB and BA don’t – and that’s fine. It’s a different method. But all four of us talk extensively to scouts and FO people about our lists too.

Ben: What’s the latest on Adbert Alzolay? I think he was near the end of your top 100 last year–is he healthy again?
Keith Law: Wasn’t healthy and still needs a better third pitch.

Matt: Saw Adonis Medina fell off the list. I’m sorry if I missed an explanation; what were your thoughts there?
Keith Law: He did not fall off the list.

Randy: Corbin Martin and Josh James both made huge advances in the last year to become top 100 prospects. Do you think this is more of a result from the Astros system of developing pitchers, or more of these two pitchers own personal development?
Keith Law: James made some personal life changes that helped him improve his conditioning and become more serious about learning to pitch. Martin just got away from bad usage in college into a system where they let him be himself on the mound.

Zach: Love the Trammell ranking, but I’m concerned people overvalued his strong showing at the Futures Game. Was there enough shown in his modest 2nd half numbers to warrant the big movement up prospect lists?
Keith Law: I didn’t overvalue (or value) his showing in one exhibition game. His tools are there. I couldn’t tell you what his second half numbers said – unless there was a physical or mechanical change, it’s not worth slicing up the season into random tranches.

Rege: After a strong AFL, is Cole Tucker on the radar for top 100 at mid season?
Keith Law: No. AFL doesn’t really tell us much – it’s a hitter’s environment, too.

Andrew : Was it an editor’s choice to go from 51 to 100 instead of descending order?
Keith Law: Yes, their call, not mine.

Jamie: Has Nick Gordon fallen off the prospect ledge? What are scouts saying about him?
Keith Law: Look at what he did in AAA – and scouts said it was like he was swinging a wet noodle.

AZ: I know what you think of Bohemian Rhapsody. What would you think of Rami Malek winning best actor?
Keith Law: It’s best actor, not best impersonator.

Brian Godish: Not a question, but great job on the annual prospect lists. I honestly only subscribe to ESPN+ for content like this, thanks.
Keith Law: Thank you!

This guy: Any advice for someone just starting to understand the need for coping with anxiety/panic issues?
Keith Law: Meditation/mindfulness.

Derek : Guys like Alonso, Rooker, Yordan to name a few are they dinged in rankings because of the high threshold for 1B Bats?
Keith Law: Yes, and none is a good defender.

Andrew: Anthony Rizzo a comp for Grant Lavigne? 1B with plus ability to get on base and have average to a tick above average power?
Keith Law: I said that.

Justin R: How did the Yankees go in less than a year from one of the best systems in the game to nobody in the top 100?
Keith Law: Well, they didn’t have “nobody in the top 100,” so I don’t know what you’re asking.

Ghost of Josey Wales: Lone Star Ball said today that the Rangers have a number of red chip prospects, guys who fall in the 50-200 range overall in baseball, but no blue chips. Is that a fair assessment of where the team stands, or are they being overly optimistic about how many second-tier guys there are there?
Keith Law: That’s fair.

Carl: You said on Twitter that Yordan wasn’t close to 100, yet I believe you were the high man on him last year. What happened to change your mind. Seems like he hit well. Was the defense projected better?
Keith Law: These lists are not sequential – I start the list from scratch every year. I don’t even look at last year’s list when starting a new one.

Nick: I am curious what you have heard about Wenceel Perez. Will he be best Tigers SS prospect?
Keith Law: Not now, but he’s a name to watch.

Paulie P: Obviously Cal Quantrill had a miserable 2018 but are you still optimistic about his long-term prospects?
Keith Law: No, his stuff peaked in 2016 in his pro debut and for two years now it hasn’t progressed.

Jederle: How does klaw order his steak?
Keith Law: I don’t. I gave up beef two years ago.

Larry: Did you really think you had to go to 114? Does a guy like Nick Madrigal really deserve a writeup/ranking?
Keith Law: OK, Larry wants me to write up fewer players next year. When I stop at 86 next year, folks, it’s Larry’s fault.

Jonathan: Thought on Nate Lowe? For sure going to hit after making solid adjustments last year or still concern he’s Casey Gillaspie?
Keith Law: Better than Gillaspie. Still not sure he’s more than an average regular. I do think he’ll hit/get on base.

Johnny: Are more prospects focusing on plate discipline than in previous years? Seems like so many guys are coming up and being patient right off the bat. Or is that just confirmation bias on my part?
Keith Law: I think more teams are working on teaching this even at the lower levels.

Aaron: How close was Adolfo to top 100? Is he out due to injury, or because he just needs to show more?
Keith Law: He had a good year, but he was hurt and didn’t play the field all year either, and that was his first really strong year at the plate. I do like him, but that’s not a top 100 guy, not with the lack of track record and still open questions.

Zach: Jonathan India put up better numbers in the SEC than did Nick Senzel, but came out of nowhere. I noticed he didn’t make your top 100. Any concerns there beyond the slow start in pro-ball?
Keith Law: Did anyone actually read my top 100? I’m starting to wonder.

Joe: If you’re the Tigers, where do you start Mize this year and where do you hope he finishes?
Keith Law: Start in lakeland, hope he finishes in Toledo. Could pitch in the majors if needed, but he won’t be needed.

JP: Does Chavis still profile at 3B, or does your non-ranking indicate a move to 1B?
Keith Law: Don’t think he’s a 3b. At least not an average one.

Lance: Does Lazaro Armenteros (Oakland) or Julio Rodriguez (Seattle) crack the top 100 next year? And what do you think of their futures?
Keith Law: Lazarito definitely not, Rodriguez maybe for 2021.

Jason: Long-time fan, reader – too bad I can’t read your baseball work anymore as I’m Canadian. Thanks for the Dish though!
Keith Law: Try signing up through a VPN. Several readers reported that will allow you to circumvent the restrictions on ESPN+ for international subscribers.

Joe: Would it make any sense for the Dodgers to trade Ruiz in a deal for Realmuto?
Keith Law: Definitely not. And I don’t think they will.

Danny: I have no basis to quibble but very surprised that Deivi Garcia is your top Yankees prospect. Safe to say that there is a bit of distance between Deivi and presumably your next 2 Yankees prospects, Florial and Periera?
Keith Law: Those were my next two prospects, on the just missed page.

Dan: Love seeing your rankings, Keith. Such a small difference, but what is your reasoning for Honeywell being one spot ahead of Kopech? Does it come down to how his rehab is going compared to Kopech’s rehab still being early on?
Keith Law: We’re not really going to quibble over players separated by one spot in the rankings, are we? Other than 1-2 I don’t think that’s a conversation to have.

Tim: If he stays healthy could Alec Hansen be a top 50 guy next year?
Keith Law: How much was health, and how much was trouble with his delivery leading to lack of command? I don’t have a good answer for that.

Randy: Hi Keith, do you think Kirilloff could make it up to Twins by the end of the year? Thanks!
Keith Law: Nonzero chance but very unlikely.

Jonathan: My daughter is in 2nd grade and into comical chapter books at the moment. Any suggestions?
Keith Law: Paddington would be perfect.

David: How difficult was it deciding between Tatis and Guerrero for the #1 ranking?
Keith Law: Not really. See above – we’re talking a ~20 run advantage for Tatis out of the chute, and I happen to think Tatis is going to mash, plus I have long-term concerns over Vlad’s body that aren’t there for Tatis.

Chris: Was it almost all injury history/risk that kept Loaisiga off the Top 110?
Keith Law: He’s never been healthy for a full season or close to it, and this year it was a shoulder issue. I feel like the ease with which many pitchers return from TJ (elbow!) has made some folks feel like shoulder injuries are also not a concern. They are, big time.

Larry: Is Fernando Romero still a prospect?
Keith Law: No longer eligible. Still love him, want to see him start.

Steeeve: How does Myles Straw perform in the majors? He’s plus across the board in all but power but how does the opposite field approach translate? Can’t really reverse shift a RHH, right?
Keith Law: He’s plus in speed (80), not across the board, and probably has 20 power. Who has succeeded recently with that profile? Billy Hamilton never did. Terence Gore is a pinch runner.

Brett: Is Trea Turner a good player comp for Royce Lewis? If not, who?
Keith Law: Not remotely similar.

Shaun: Any chance Victor Victor makes the big leagues this year? What do you envision his comp being?
Keith Law: Extra outfielder.

Hank: Does BRUSDAR’s height create the same plane concerns that Berrios’ did on the fastball for you?
Keith Law: They aren’t the same pitcher. Graterol’s issues are more delivery-related – see the just missed column for more.

Jason: Does your ranking of Gore mean there isn’t an expectation that the blister thing is a long term issue?
Keith Law: It’s not a long term issue.
Keith Law: Or does he have some sort of chronic blister disease?

Jonathan: You’re the new president of the Player’s Association. What are the three things you will fight tooth-and-nail for in the next CBA?
Keith Law: You have to raise pay for players who haven’t reached free agency. The luxury tax threshold needs to go up, if not be eliminated entirely. And I’d fight for more pay for minor leaguers.

Max: Seeing as how my yankees just traded Sonny Gray, with hindsight being 20/20 was trading for him a big mistake? Fowler, Mateo and Kaprielian for Gray turned into Gray for a draft pick and Stowers.
Keith Law: Kaprielian we’ll see. Mateo was awful last year and Fowler is just a guy. Maybe they could have gotten more for that package at that time, but right now I don’t think they have much to regret.

Kevin: Given his graduation from prospect status and usage last year, does Max Fried still profile as a SP for you? Or do you think he ends up a long reliever given all the other Braves options?
Keith Law: He could start for someone, although Atlanta has so many options it might not happen there. Definitely profiles as a starter to me.

San Cristóbal D.R: Really high on deivi garcia considering you didn’t saw severino as a starter because of his small frame?
Keith Law: That’s dead false. I never dinged Severino for a small frame. I didn’t like his delivery and still don’t.

Kevin: I believe Mitch White made a midseason list or was at least a name to watch for you previously, did you get to see him last season? Any chance he ends up getting a spot start with the Dodgers this year?
Keith Law: He was on my midseason list over in 2017. Has had trouble staying healthy, and when he’s pitched his stuff has varied widely.

KC: Do you think Soroka’s shoulder issues from 2018 are behind him? Assuming he is the guy we saw in his first few major league starts and there aren’t any issues, would he be higher on your list?
Keith Law: I think his delivery puts more stress on his shoulder. I hope it’s never an issue again, and his shit looked unhittable in the majors, but I can’t not see that arm swing or ignore the possibility it led to the shoulder issue.

Danny: Where do you think Periera and Cabello start this season?
Keith Law: Charleston for both.

Jason: Any serious consideration for Wander Franco at #1 when you were putting th Elise together?
Keith Law: No. That would have been indefensible.

Sean: No Bohm in the top 100. Worried about his bat or that he will eventually end up at First?
Keith Law: Pro scouts were not fans of his defense and didn’t see an elite bat for 1b.

Paul: Don’t mean to nitpick or troll, but Gohara has pitched exactly 49 IP and I believe still has rookie eligibility. Is there some other qualifier I just don’t know about besides IP – maybe time on the 40-man?
Keith Law: If you read the intro to the rankings, it explains that rookie eligibility expires over 130 AB, 50 IP, or 45 days on the active roster during the 25-man limit. Gohara exceeded the last criterion.

Jason Amico: I’m currently reading your book Smart Baseball….I think your severely underrate Omar Vizquel’s defense
Keith Law: So you’re saying the data underrate Omar’s defense. That’s a take.

randplaty: A lot of people are putting an 80 grade on Vlad’s hit tool. You don’t think that adds up to more than 20 runs? Or do you think Tatis’ bat is better than others are giving credit for?
Keith Law: I don’t think his bat will be 20 runs better than Tatis year in and year out – and I think Tatis may be better than average at short – and I would bet on Tatis having a longer, healthier career than Vlad.

Zihuatanejo: How much time do you spend scouting players personally vs. talking to other scouts and team personnel?
Keith Law: Not sure how to measure that. I see players all year, whenever i can, through the AFL. Then I’ve spent the last ~two months making calls.

Jonathan: Chris Paddack = Young James Shields with the FB/CH combo and get-me-over breaker?
Keith Law: I feel like he has better command than Shields did but you’re in the ballpark.

Chris: Would your Best Impersonator argument apply to Bale as well? If so, who would you like of the remaining nominees?
Keith Law: I thought Bale did more as an actor, while obviously benefiting from the makeup and doing an impersonation. I’d take Cooper of the five nominees (haven’t seen Dafoe yet, but will). Joaquin Phoenix deserved a nomination for You Were Never Really Here, which too few people saw; and Ethan Hawke was flat-out robbed here for First Reformed.

Andrew: Where in the world is Anderson Espinoza? Any reason to think he can’t still reclaim prospect status?
Keith Law: Been gone for two years now. Let’s see what his stuff looks like if and when he returns.

nelson: How have your readers’ reactions changed to your top 100 over the years?
Keith Law: That’s a great question. I think wider availability of prospect information, and more non-professional sites trying to offer ‘scouting’ reports, has changed the conversation for better and worse. Questions and debates become more insightful.

SeanE: You have probably addressed this in the past, but why have you given up Beef?
Keith Law: My daughter and I share a metabolic disorder that makes red meat in general harder for our bodies to process. We gave up all red meat other than pork. I only miss it occasionally.

CBS: do you see a player like Khalil Lee ever developing enough of a hit or contact tool to be a MLB regular?
Keith Law: Yes. Not a hacker, just runs deep counts. And he improved his contact rate last year.

Mike: I’m surprised you haven’t had more teeth gnashing from delusional Giants fans, but maybe (hopefully) you’re filtering them out. Is it possible that Bart’s future is more variable given the position and his swing and miss? Or is it less variable given that he is a more finished (old) product?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s going to hit for much average. How different is he from Sean Murphy?

Mike: Was Garrett Hampson in consideration for the top 100? Is he purely a 2B or does the glove play at SS and maybe even CF?
Keith Law: I think there’s too much chance he doesn’t hit enough for 2b (he can’t play SS) to be a regular there.

Dave: Is there a performance or development reason that A ball is split between “Low-A” and “High-A” rather than just… say… having the minors go to AAAA? Or is it just an historical relic?
Keith Law: Historical relic. There were class B, C, and D leagues in the distant past. I feel like Rob Neyer might know more.

Dylan: Damn it Larry
Keith Law: #ItsLarrysFault

Dan: My music interests seem to differ quite a bit from yours but I have been obsessed with Young Fathers since reading your lists. They are incredible.
Keith Law: Aren’t they? I feel like nobody is quite like them. Someone accused me of liking only ‘mainstream’ hip-hop (which is really not true), and I felt like you can’t get less mainstream than Young Fathers.

Garrett: Chris Rodriguez was on your list
Keith Law: He was on it in 2018, but missed the year with a stress fracture in his back.

TK: I read the intro so I actually don’t have a question about your rankings. Loved reading them, though! Thanks.
Keith Law: You’re the only one.

Atown Ant: How far off was Ryan Dunne from Top 100? Looked like he had big upside in Cape Cod summer league, just needs to get his head on straight.
Keith Law: I assume this is a joke about that dumb movie (well, I think it’s dumb, but I haven’t actually watched it), but there was a Ryan Dunne on Billings last summer.

Travis: Thoughts on Julio Rodriguez? Was he in the discussion for the top 100? Does he have superstar upside?
Keith Law: I don’t think I had any DSL players on the top 100, did I? Not sure who the last July 2nd player without US pro experience was who made my 100 … maybe Sano.

Tim: Taking out Kopechs tommy john…how would you rate Chicago’s return in the Sale trade so far?
Keith Law: I think they did very well. Basabe is a real prospect. Kopech has an 80-85% chance of returning to exactly what he was before. Moncada has disappointed fans who were told he was the best prospect in baseball, but he still has value and room to develop. Good trade.

Andrew: Pretty cool to see Tatis #1. I remember seeing you taking video of him in the backfields of Peoria in 2017. At that point he was hitting homers on the AA field and it was clear he was special before even making it to full season ball.
Keith Law: He’s just not as famous as Vlad, and that’s fine, but I don’t consider fame in these rankings.

Tom: Is your ranking of Madrigal more of a ceiling issue?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s a fair way to put it. And I don’t think he’s a guaranteed regular, either. He’s exceptionally small for a major-league position player in 2019.

Steve O: Thanks for all the coverage. You’re the only reason why I have ESPN+ or whatever it’s called these days.
Keith Law: Well, maybe the name will change again in six months, but thank you.

Dave: I would love to see some sort of show with you, Mayo/Callis, J.J. Cooper, and Longerhagen/McDaniel in a format like ESPN’s The Sports Reporters. Baseball fans can’t get enough of prospect coverage and you guys would be tremendous.
Keith Law: I agree, but the powers that be don’t.

Larry: I am a little surprised by how high Duplantier is ranked. Is his shoulder not a huge concern for you? Or is his upside great enough that it outweighs any concerns about his health? Thank you!
Keith Law: Sure it’s a concern, but he came back from it healthy and throwing as hard as ever. It’s when guys don’t come back (yet) that I worry.

Mike: Hi Keith, my daughter is about to celebrate her 6th birthday and I’ve been trying to find an game to gift her that will both be something that challenges her and entertains her enough to act as an entry point into board games. Any suggestions? Thanks!
Keith Law: Ticket to Ride First Journey. Mole Rats in Space if you want a co-op title you can all play and win (or lose) together.

Sarcastic Commenter: Is it possible that Trump is tanking the GOP so they can get a higher draft pick and money pool for the 2024 President talent draft?
Keith Law: I laughed.

Joe: Michel Baez- reason for such a dramatic fall from mid-season 51 to off the list?
Keith Law: If you read what I said, there is no “fall.” Each list is organic, not based on previous lists.

Justin R: Any interest in watching the Super Bowl? Or at least cooking anything for it?
Keith Law: Probably neither. I literally forgot it was Sunday until my daughter mentioned it last night.

Rob : Any consideration of George Valera?
Keith Law: No. He missed almost the whole summer, so he’s barely played.

Robert: No question. I just wanted to thank you for the period you stayed away from the Arizona Fall League. It was nice to see Luis Robert play some games.
Keith Law: He missed one week of the AFL, and it was the week I was there.

Ryan: Briefly on Howard Schultz, I think the main problem he’s had is nobody’s actually buying his pitch: “two party system bad” while also being a – excuse the baseball term – replacement-level republican on most of his policy stances.
Keith Law: Yep. I’m glad these dipshits (add Gabbard to that list) are all playing themselves out now, while the election is over a year away.

Mike: I’m constantly impressed with how quickly you rip through these questions without spelling or grammar errors. Is there a book you could recommend on teaching proper writing techniques?
Keith Law: I read a lot, going back to when i was a kid. I have to think that helped form language skills in my mind early and then hold them in place. Although if I read more James Joyce I’d probably lose it all.

Jeries: If Ke’Bryan Hayes never develops power, can he still be a 3 WAR player?
Keith Law: Yes.

Bill: Michel Baez- reason for such a dramatic fall from mid-season #51 to off the list completely?
Keith Law: Yeah, so submitting the same question multiple times under different names doesn’t get you an answer, but it does piss me off, so don’t do that.

Wade: Who do you dream about making the biggest jump in your 2020 rankings? Who do you have nightmares about falling out of your rankings (for non-injury concerns)?
Keith Law: Mostly injury concerns are what bother me, but I was surprised how many front office guys didn’t value Sheffield the way I did (I’ve seen him lights-out, and think he’s a great athlete who’ll adjust well) or the Mariners did. The next guy on my Angels list was Jordyn Adams; I think he could be a superstar, but he just hasn’t played that much baseball yet and I felt like that would be overreaching since we don’t have a great idea of his zone control or pitch recognition yet.

Magoo: Anything to buy into with Florial and the Yankees hiring the so called guru of pitch recognition?
Keith Law: I wrote that too.

Lololololol: RE Vizquel, “I’m reading your published book and I think its wrong” is one of my all time favorite Klawchat moments.
Keith Law: Welcome to my life.
Keith Law: Sorry to cut this off but I have one more scout call to make for these last few lists, and it’s time for that. I’ll do a Periscope (video) chat on Thursday, and another Klawchat next week when the team reports run. I also used the Instagram story feature for today’s announcements for the first time (with a soundtrack!), so feel free to follow me there (@mrkeithlaw) and let me know if you enjoy those clips. Thanks again for reading, subscribing, and for all the questions!

My latest board game review for Paste covers Forbidden Sky, a new cooperative title from Matt Leacock (Pandemic, Forbidden Island) with a great STEM component to game play.

A reminder: the Top 100 prospect package begins its rollout on ESPN.com on Monday, January 28th.

Keith Law: At least we left before we had to go. Klawchat.

addoeh: Over/under? Combined, Harper and Machado’s deals end up being worth $500 million.
Keith Law: I’ll still take the over. I think the potential boost, in ticket sales and in wins, from adding one of those players will convince an owner to blink before we get to March. It’s the middle and lower tiers who will bear the brunt of the teams’ parsimony.

Nook: Is Bellinger still young enough to make significant strides offensively, or do you think 2018 was a realistic showing of who he is?
Keith Law: He’s still 23 so age isn’t a concern, but the way he swings leaves him vulnerable to a couple of pitching plans and he has to show he can adjust and shorten up if he wants to be more than he’s already been.

Adriane: Could you see the Reds selling off most of these new acquisitions at the deadline if the first half is a disappointment?
Keith Law: Yes, or even next winter in the case of Gray if he has a good year but the team still finishes in 4th place.

Kimmy: Dennis Santana: 4th-starter ceiling?
Keith Law: More likely reliever for me. I feel like if he starts he’d be more than that, but the odds are he’s a reliever.

Devon: Do you see the current collusion in the FA market as a cyclical problem that disappears after a few offseasons?
Keith Law: If it’s collusion, it’s not cyclical. One or the other.

Ave Maria: Is there a pitcher in the Dodgers system you’re particularly high on at the moment?
Keith Law: Several. You’ll see a couple of those names Monday-Wednesday.

Genesis B: Not that you care, but do you think Jeter has tainted his legacy somewhat since his group took over the Marlins?
Keith Law: I don’t care, but I can still comment. And yes, I think so.

barbeach: KLaw: Thanks as always for the chat. Question: Who is worse at his job: Trump or Giuliani? It’s close, but I have to go with Rudy.
Keith Law: Giuliani. He makes Lionel Hutz (RIP) look like Clarence Darrow.

Guest: Thoughts on the Mariano induction? Does this mean unanimous elections are going to be more common?
Keith Law: I believe they will be and fans will attach undue meaning to it. If your player gets in with 75.00%, that should be good enough.

Chris : The Markakis and Pomeranz deals are great for ATL and SFG. Agree?
Keith Law: They’re fine. They’re not bad. Great … would require a lot more than I think either player will provide.

Guest: What are the odds that the Mets traded Kelenic at his highest peak value? I’m sure the Rangers wish they traded Profar.
Keith Law: Low. Kelenic was too impressive this summer to think he’s peaked.

Helena: Is the long reliever cemented as a thing of the past, or could the Brewers’ and Red Sox postseason strategies revive it?
Keith Law: On the contrary, it’s already been revived, and I’m hearing more scouts describe pitchers as multi-inning relievers rather than just going with the binary starter/reliever framework.

Chris : Any buy-low FA starters you’d take over others? Wade Miley and Doug Fister seem like innings eaters in the right environment.
Keith Law: Miley for sure, best of that group. Fister, no.

Esteban: Who are a couple of names that weren’t on the top 100 or ‘Just Missed’ list that you wouldn’t be surprised–even expect– to make a big leap?
Keith Law: I’m not revealing any names on the list today. You’ll see them Monday through Wednesday and I will chat either Wednesday or Thursday.

addoeh: So our billionaire Commerce Secretary had his “Let them eat cake!” moment by saying furloughed Federal employees should get loans to cover the fact they aren’t getting paychecks. Of course, loans themselves have a real cost and some Federal employees may only be able to get predatory loans. Can he really be that out of touch?
Keith Law: Yes, he definitely is, as is Lara Trump, as are so many of the people responsible for the Trump Shutdown who appear unaware of the consequences for so many federal workers and for so many people who voted for Trump.

Leonardo: While it’s nice that Rivera was named on 100% of the HOF ballots it makes me wonder why 23 people didn’t vote for Willie Mays and 9 passed on Hank Aaron. I feel they were much better players (even in a different era). Any theories/ideas?
Keith Law: Lack of accountability. Misguided notions of “not on the first ballot.” General stupidity.

Mark: Hi Klaw,
If for some reason Tatis isn’t called up (injury, poor production, etc.) is Urias good enough defensively to play a full season at SS and be at least league average?
Keith Law: I think he’d be a 45 defender in the majors at short. I’m fine with him playing there for two months while Tatis tears up triple-A.

Mark: Keith,
Did you read the story in the SD Union-Tribune about the Padres’ owners “opening their books”? If so, did you find any of the information notable or was it just spin? Fowler, et all, come off looking like novices, like they didn’t know Moores was leaving a ton of debt or that just because you acquire some MLB players for one season in 2015 it doesn’t automatically mean you’re going to make a $50 million profit.
Keith Law: It did not paint the owners in a particularly good light.

Lafayette: If Andrew Friedman phoned you in a panic, desperate to find out how to put a World Series champion on the field, what would you tell him (after “Read ‘Smart Baseball”) ?
Keith Law: Live by launch angle, die by launch angle.

Fuzzy Dunlop: Snit saying they are leaning toward Inciarte leading off. 2 weeks max before they swtich Acuna there, right?
Keith Law: Yeah, that’s the wrong choice.

Kip: Arenado or Machado?
Keith Law: Machado.

Trevor: The D-backs have announced they’re switching their field surface from grass to turf next year and the Rangers may install it in their new stadium. Are you a purist and prefer the natural surface or ¯\_(?)_/¯ about it? Does it affect the grading of defensive skills in anyway?
Keith Law: Doesn’t affect the grading. Prefer grass from the aesthetic perspective but it’s still baseball on good turf.

Mike: Klaw, thanks for the chat. Who do we see first in MLB, a lefty catcher or lefty middle infielder. I read where Mets prospect Carlos Cortes learned how to throw with right hand so he can still play the infield. That’s crazy,
Keith Law: How could a lefty thrower play short or second?

Marshall MN: KLaw, I was just perusing the Baseball Prospectus Top 100, just curious do you ever look at those lists? Not necessarily as a check on your work but just to see how other writers/analysts rank prospects?
Keith Law: I look at BA’s (came out yesterday), MLB’s (comes out Saturday), and Fangraphs’ (comes out after the Super Bowl, date TBD). Those are the only lists I find credible, and I believe that is the industry sentiment. Jonathan Mayo and I generally compare our lists once they’re published, too. It’s fun to see what we heard that lined up and what we heard that widely differed.

Alex: As an author, how do you feel about people who can afford to buy your book, or any book, borrowing from the library instead? Is it a material drain on earnings? As background, my wife and I are trying to reduce our “new” purchases, but I don’t want to hurt authors.
Keith Law: Read my book however you like. I use the library myself. I buy new and used books. I buy ebooks when I see they’re on sale. read 104 books last year – that’s a lot of money if I buy them all new.

Kody: Dodgers sign Pollock for 4-5 years depending on who you believe. Doesn’t even a 10 year deal for Harper taking him through about the same age as Pollock’s deal make more sense? Nobody is concerned about Harper’s 26-31 seasons, right?
Keith Law: Well it’s not the same annual cost, not close.

Marshall MN: KLaw is it too early to put in a preemptive “you hate my team” complaint prior to the release of your Top 100 list next week?
Keith Law: Never too early.

David Stearns: I am high on my guy Hirua, how much of his minor league hit prowess translates, and do we have a 2B for the next 10 years who is at the top f his game?
Keith Law: He’s a solid player, very very likely to hit enough to be a regular. Star potential is limited.

Matt: There had to be a handful of writers that didn’t want to vote Rivera but were also worried they’d be the *only* one that didn’t vote for him right?
Keith Law: I never considered omitting him, but it occurred to me that doing so could make me the only one, and then I’d have to go into hiding.

Sack: When do you expect Harper and Machado to sign?
Keith Law: In February.

Mike: When a prospect returns bonus money, as Murray in theory might, how does that actually work? Presumably he’s spent some of it, so does the team give him time to repay? And what about taxes–he presumably paid a huge tax bill in the year he got his big bonus…can he claim a huge refund in the year he gives it back?
Keith Law: If Murray has to return the money it means he just got a much larger check from the NFL. He’ll be fine.

B Mand: Do you think the current Red Sox bullpen is as big of a weakness as most make it out to be? With the year to year fluctuation of relief pitchers, I’m fine with them saving their money for in-season trades if they end up needing help.
Keith Law: Same. And I wouldn’t overpay for Kimbrel just to try to patch it.

J: With another mystifying off-season for the Rockies coming to a close, what do you see them doing with McMahon and Rodgers, at least in 2019? And, Twins’ handling of outfield prospects aside, has a top prospect been more oddly dealt with than McMahon in recent years?
Keith Law: I feel like Rodgers is blocked for the moment, although I’m not a big Hampson fan (it’s 30 power) and Rodgers might bash enough in Albuquerque (huge hitter’s park) to force the issue by June. Their reluctance to let McMahon play regularly is befuddling. High pick, touted by the team, athletic, still has growth left. Play him.

Aaron C.: Has the *official* official schedule for the daily(?) prospects postings been released or is that still in the hands of your benevolent editor?
Keith Law: I mentioned it at the top of this post.

Ryan: Keith – do you think the removal of one year of team control – or even a change in the number of years of arbitration rights a team holds over a player – could help the stagnant free agency period and/or help to re-establish the player middle class. As is, I see the league devolving into a split between the well paid superstars and the entry level/roughly minimum wage players. In fairness, baseball isn’t the only sport going this route, but it certainly feels as wrong as the shrinking middle class in America. Thank you
Keith Law: I think the best solution would be to boost the minimum salary to $1 million or more. But that has some unintended consequences too.

Tom: Al Avila said today he doesn’t foresee the Tigers spending again until 2021, and that that’s the soonest they can compete. Does 2021 seem like a realistic goal for them in terms of being relevant?
Keith Law: I probably would have said 2022. The system has improved but still has a ways to go.

Mike: Thoughts on Dodgers trading away Puig (and friends) and replacing him with older and injury prone AJ Pollock?
Keith Law: Puig was a free agent after the year, so your question is leading, omitting a critical detail – and Pollock may be older but he’s a better all-around player right now.

Shane: Have you heard any whispers about what type of punishment the Dodgers face for their international issues and if that is playing a hand in their offseason moves?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard a word about it nor have I asked. Not really my department.

Anthony: Would you support a rule that shrinks MiLB option years from 3 to 1? It seems teams cycle through pre-arb guys with options while eschewing mid-level free agents, and this could open up opportunities for players blocked in their current orgs by spurring trades or waiver claims (albeit with maybe some adverse effects on player development)?
Keith Law: I feel like owners would absolutely lose their shit over that. They love their control.

Zirinsky: Hi Keith. What should MLB and the union consider implementing: earlier free agency, scrapping amateur bonus limits…what else?
Keith Law: I like the idea of earlier free agency because it’s pro-player, but really, would it change teams’ refusal to spend? I don’t see why.

BE: With the slow moving FA market, would it make sense for a team in a winnable division to load up on bargain deals and try to steal one?
Keith Law: I think you just subtweeted the Twins and White Sox.

Jason: Is Pollock better than Joc Pederson over the next two years?
Keith Law: Yes.

Zac: After next year, do you think your HOF ballot won’t have 10 names on it?
Keith Law: If I had to fill it out right now, I’d have 9.

Kwame: I know this is kind of a cheesy question but how did it feel to cast a Hall of Fame ballot?
Keith Law: Good. An honor and a privilege, but also an obligation to take it seriously. And yet there are still people unhappy with me. ?

Bort: Bryce Harper to the Blue Jays. Wouldn’t that be fun?
Keith Law: Yes. Can’t imagine Rogers doing that.

Andrew: Where do you see Kuechel landing? Would be a great fit for Colorado and give them one of the better rotations in the NL.
Keith Law: Great fit for every team, no?

Jerry: If Kyle Tucker tears it up in the spring again is he still headed to AAA to start the season? Is there a trade market for Josh Reddick?
Keith Law: They don’t really have a DH, so there is a job for Tucker if he earns it.

Andrew: I don’t get the uproar RE: the Gillette commercial. Aren’t they just saying don’t raise your kid to be an ass?
Keith Law: Yes. The uproar felt almost manufactured. Or maybe men are just little porcelain dolls who shatter if you look at them funny.

Boa : Angels are mystery Harper/Machado suitor right? Do over from Pujols/Hamilton disasters?
Keith Law: That would be fun. And then they probably do make the playoffs.

Alex: Saw your Instagram post about ottolenghi’s newest cookbook. Food looks good! But I’m also reading reviews that the recipes for an average home cook might actually take longer than 30mins to prepare? What’s been your experience?
Keith Law: The shallow-fried potatoes I made last night required about 10-15 minutes of prep and then cooked for 35. So that’s not a 30 minute recipe. I think the book’s beauty is that nothing is hard – you don’t need huge skills for anything, so if you do have some skills, you can prep quickly. My main complaint so far is that his quantities of herbs are hilariously high. 1/2 cup of thyme? I’d spend all fucking day trimming leaves to get that.

Bob: Time to give up on Hunter Harvey?
Keith Law: Why? Not sure I understand the desire fans have to give up on players.

Lilith: Sammy Siani or Mike Siani? Who has better tools and who would you say ends up being the better prospect?
Keith Law: I haven’t scouted Sammy yet, but he’s local so I certainly will. Mike could really run and I think he can hit, but some doofus hitting guru decided to try to improve his launch angle and suddenly he was Mr. Popup.

Zach: Should the Reds be commending for trying to win (unlike half the league) and holding onto their top prospects, or criticized for giving up mid-level pieces to improve a team that still probably won’t make the playoffs?
Keith Law: Thrilled to see a team try to win, but I don’t think they’ve gotten good value for their prospects.

Traino: Biggest Oscar lock?
Keith Law: Roma for Best Foreign Language Film.

ergo08: Hi Keith, listening to Jade Bird right now! Thanks for all your great content including that hidden gem. She rocks. Is there such a thing as how a swing transitions from aluminum to wood? Or, does that not really matter? Also, Twenty one pilots – yea or nay? Thanks!!
Keith Law: There can be a difference for some hitters, depending on the swing path and the hitter’s hand/wrist strength. I hate Twentyone pilots with the fire of a billion suns.

Beetlejuice: Seems like Gray has a good chance of outperforming 4 yrs @ $38M. Did he sell himself too short or does he have serious questions on being a league avg pitcher going forwards?
Keith Law: He also has a good chance of getting hurt, or underperforming. I don’t blame him one bit.

Jordan: With Justin Dunn gone, which pitcher has the most upside in the Mets system? I am torn between Szapucki and Woods-Richardson.
Keith Law: SWR – started throwing harder once he stopped playing shortstop too.

CH: Mariano Rivera is a HoFer for sure, but has anyone else’s worst career moments ever been more overlooked and whitewashed than his? (Luis Gonzalez/Game 7 2001 WS, Dave Roberts/Game 5 2004 ALCS, Sandy Alomar/Game 4 ALDS 1997).
Keith Law: I’m having a hard time seeing the Gonzalez or Roberts moments as some terrible events we’d have to work to gloss over. Didn’t Gonzalez just chop one weakly up the middle?

Patrick: If there was no 10 max, how many people would have gotten your vote for HOF?
Keith Law: I said 14 in my column, IIRC.

Jackie: Jeter is the only “gimmie” on next year’s HOF ballot. Do you think Curt Schilling, the highest vote total among the non-elected, goes in as well? Perhaps the only American who needs to stay away from Twitter more than Trump …
Keith Law: I believe Jeter gets in, still think Walker can make a big move (with some sabermetrics support), and wonder if the changing electorate will hurt Schilling, who seemed from Ryan Thibodeaux’s work to get far more of his support from white, male writers than other candidates.

Justin R: Is next year finally going to be Max Kepler’s breakout?
Keith Law: I dreamed last night that Kepler was in the middle of a breakout season. Not even joking.

Justin R: What is stopping AOC from running for President and daring the Supreme Court to stop her? Absurd that her age disqualifies her but a racist reality show host in his 70s (with obvious signs of significant cognitive decline) can run.
Keith Law: On what grounds? The age requirement is in the Constitution. You can’t claim it’s unconstitutional.

Justin R: Can just one reporter ask Trump why we have to be nice to the little Covington bigots after what he did to the Central Park Five?
Keith Law: I think we both know the answer to that. White privilege is a hell of a drug.

Johnny: Is Eloy as ready as many are saying? What kind of an impact do you think he can make this season?
Keith Law: He was ready last summer.

Sean: Do you believe that Halladay would’ve been a first-ballot HOF regardless of his tragic passing?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t have been surprised at all if he’d fallen short, somewhere in the 60-65% range, and gotten in on year 2. His career wasn’t very long by HoF standards, and voters have been very hard on starting pitchers the last ten years.

Erik: Please tell me neither Green Book nor BR will win best
Keith Law: I’m betting on Roma. If you wanted to place an actual bet, since Roma is something like -1100, I’d go with the Favourite, which got Director and Screenplay nods. But Roma getting those two plus surprise nominations for two actresses says to me it might run the table.

Tom: Thoughts on Darwinzon Hernandez? Is his most likely future as a high-leverage reliever, or does he overcome his control issues and remain a starter?
Keith Law: Starter upside, long way to go to get there.

JIm: Keith, did you ever read any of Jasper FForde’s other books? I just finished the first book of his Nursery Crimes Division duology. A bit less compelling than the Thursday Next, but not bad at all.
Keith Law: I’ve read everything he’s written, and I preordered Early Riser already.

Larry: Hey Keith, I know you don’t like commenting on other lists, but Baseball America had Geraldo Perdomo ahead of Kristian Robinson in the Dbacks system. What do you think of Perdomo’s potential, and do you think he may be a better prospect than Robinson? Thank you!
Keith Law: I’ll just say I have Robinson a good bit higher than Perdomo.

Quicky the Fast: The Rangers appear committed to Gallo and Mazara in the outfield corners this year, which means no role for Willie Calhoun if Shin-Soo Choo is the DH. At this point, should Texas simply release Choo, or is there value in keeping him around?
Keith Law: Choo was worth 2.8 rWAR last year – releasing him now would be bonkers. At least see if he’s still capable of producing.

Taylor: Hey Keith, have you heard of a metal band called Nevermore? I just heard of them this week and they really kick ass!
Keith Law: Yes, but they’re defunct. That was Tim Calvert’s band after Forbidden, but he died last April.

Jackie: One thing about the Mariano 100% election — he was the unquestioned Best Player Ever at his position. There’s universal agreement that he’s the #1 closer of all time. When was the last time we had such a player on the ballot? Junior Griffey was a better ball player, but he wasn’t the best outfielder ever. That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised if Jeter isn’t a 100% vote next year — great player, but someone will say, “Yeah, but he was no Honus Wagner.”
Keith Law: And it shouldn’t matter. He gets a plaque regardless of his vote total.

Justin R: What was the worst movie you saw in 2018?
Keith Law: The Wife. Execrable, predictable, insulting claptrap.

Victor: Could you see Judge being a passage center fielder despite his size, a-la Bellinger?
Keith Law: No.

Aaron C.: Was it last year when an illness during “prospects writing season” hampered you? Do you feel it impacted the final product w/r/t phone calls, writing length, analysis that wouldn’t hamstring a healthy Klaw? (FWIW, that’s not a dig. I always love your sh t, sir.)
Keith Law: Three years ago. Worst illness I’ve had as an adult. It cost me some phone call time, but we also pushed the whole package back a week because I physically couldn’t work.

Jackie: For the record, I’m a huge Red Sox fan, and I’m OK with it if you hate our farm system. Looking pretty barren …
Keith Law: It’s weak, but not barren – they were as riddled with injuries as any system I can think of. Their recent drafts have been solid, and they have some big-time international FA prospects on the way. They could go 25 to 10 (I don’t have that finalized, this is just a general idea) in a year.

San Cristóbal D.R: Surprise no Yankees make BA top 100 list?
Keith Law: I’m not surprised, although I have more than zero.

Beetlejuice: To win the most games, you’re given the choice of taking 5 #3 starters or a #1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Regulation season win total only considered. What are your thoughts?
Keith Law: the 1-2-3-4-5.

John : Any advice for furloughed government worker who isn’t getting paid ? How can I not be so angry at the president for a stinking wall?
Keith Law: You should be angry, and then do something about it, but first take care of yourself and your family. It’s fortunate that so many charities and businesses are trying to help – it just shouldn’t be necessary.

Sean: My guess is Harper and Machado both announce on Super Bowl Sunday. Isn’t that what A-Rod did a while back?
Keith Law: As a fan of polite trolling, I would endorse this wholeheartedly.

Matt: Can a player be removed from the Hall of Fame? Let’s say a member was convicted of murder for example.
Keith Law: Nope. Although you raise an interesting question: What if we have an OJ Simpson situation, a player on the ballot who is absolutely worthy on baseball grounds but who commits a crime that is beyond the pale? There are at least two players on the ballot now who were accused of domestic abuse (Bonds, during his career, by his wife Sun; Andruw, after his career, by his wife), and one accused of statutory rape (Clemens, who denied it). I know of one other who has an accusation that wasn’t public. I’m sure there are more. are there some crimes we can’t overlook? Does the character clause cover things after one’s career? I have no good answers.

Kyle Tucker : Do I replace Josh Reddick in June ?
Keith Law: Springer, Reddick, Brantley, Tucker, three outfield spots + DH.

Anuj: Is Ruiz and J. Gray for Realmuto too much, fair, or too little?
Keith Law: Too much, and the Dodgers are not trading for a terrible framing catcher.

Kevin : Are there any underrated minor-league prospects that come up and make an impact this summer ?
Keith Law: I’ll have a ranking of the top 20 prospects for 2019 impact up at the end of next week. As for “underrated,” if I think they’ll have an impact in 2019, then I won’t underrate them.

Justin R: Now that Edgar Martinez is (finally) in, does David Ortiz go in on the first ballot?
Keith Law: Yes.

JIm: Am I the only one who has the feeling that Trump came out of the SOTU fight looking like the more mature adult?
Keith Law: (looks around) Yep, you are indeed the only one.

Jake: Have you every played Diplomacy? If so, what did you think?
Keith Law: Yes. After the second time I killed someone for betraying me, I thought I should take a break.

Leandro: Heard you on BBTN today saying you think Helton is Hall-worthy at some point. Feel the same way about Larry Walker?
Keith Law: My ballot was public.

Jim: Keith – Do you think the sale of Fox (or part of Fox) to Disney will impact the regional sport channels and the next contracts some of the teams might get? I know the Fox interest in some, like YES, are already being discussed as available.
Keith Law: Disney wasn’t allowed to retain the RSNs (Fox Sports Paducah, etc.) by the Justice Department.

EC: Is there something that you wish readers of your prospect write ups would do or know? Like not assume gaps between ranks are uniform? Understanding positional value and scarcity? Taking a bit of time to understand how your methodology differs from other lists before coming at you? Reading the introduction?
Keith Law: Read the intro and calm down.

Todd: Shouldnt all Hall of Fame inductees have to get 100%? It should be a group of immortal players who no dibt are qualified
Keith Law: You must be fun at parties.

Patrick: going off what Mike said previously, in your opinion how come we’ve never seen a lefty catcher or why do you think it’s not taught more at a younger age?
Keith Law: If you can throw that well and you’re left-handed someone is putting you on a mound. There’s also the old belief that a LH catcher would be at a disadvantage throwing with more batters batting RH.

Chris: Brad Brach for 1/$3M is a steal. 2019 is the year of the market correction.
Keith Law: He was worth less than a win last year and relievers are volatile. It’s not like he should be getting $10 million.

Greg: Did you see all the awful Jays fans coming out of the woodwork to berate Halladay’s family for “clearly going against his wishes” to go into the hall has a Blue Jay? As if they somehow knew better than his wife, just based on one interview he gave. Just gross. Do you think it’s possible that his wife got some insight from Doc in non-interview form? Just maybe?
Keith Law: Yep. That Philly Inquirer column was worse. Someone wrote that he knew better than Halladay’s widow, and ignored Halladay’s own statements in 2016, and then at least one editor saw that and thought, “yeah, this is definitely a well-considered opinion and not something that will embarrass our entire newspaper.”

Kacey: Thoughts on AOC? Personally I’m in love. The type of politician I’ve always wanted.
Keith Law: I’m just enjoying the conservative obsession with her and how frequently she dunks on them on social media. That doesn’t make her a good or bad Congressperson, but it is very entertaining.

Todd: Yanks still have a good to really good farm system?
Keith Law: No, with trades and graduations it has declined, although they have this cluster of Latin American kids, all 19 and under, who have big potential with low probabilities.

Harrison: Do you see Nick Castellanos being dealt this offseason? If so, what type of return do you think he could bring in? Any chance at a Top 100 prospect?
Keith Law: They have no reason to keep him at this point, but should wait for a good offer – one top 100 guy, two guys who are close.

John: What’s the difference between this shutdown and the Obama shutdown besides political opinions on how much should go to the border wall? House republicans caved to Obama back then, are republicans wrong to expect the same from house democrats here?
Keith Law: I mean, what’s the difference between World War II and the Korean War besides the extermination of 6 million Jews?

Greg: Remember all those people saying Pelosi should step aside? Can you imagine anyone else handing Trump his lunch like that? You know he’s terrified of her when his nickname for her is… “Nancy.”
Keith Law: Trevor Noah made that joke. He calls a murderous dictator Rocket Man and calls Pelosi by her given name.

John: What do you think Jahmai Jones ends up as?
Keith Law: Solid average second baseman. Still have some hope for more – he hasn’t hit like I expected yet.

Ryan: I know this isnt a huge issue in the grand scheme of things but how do you feel about Halladay not going into the HOF without a Jays cap? I understand that was what his family decided but do you think players or their families should have input into this decision or should it be left up to the Hall entirely? Seems wrong that he isn’t going in as a Jay.
Keith Law: There’s no way I’m going against a widow’s wishes.

Ben Jammin: Do you think Dom Smith has some decent upside left? I think most any of the non-contending teams should be interested, as he can’t really be all that expensive.
Keith Law: Yes, and yes.

El Guapo: Thoughts on Julio Urias’ outlook? Is it 100% a health question going forward? The stuff looked to be back last fall but sample is so small… can he still be a no. 2 if everything works out? Or is that a pipe dream.
Keith Law: Uncharted waters. I know people keep asking me this, but we have so little history of pitchers having this surgery and returning that there isn’t a good answer.

drew: Keith, I’m missing your FA evaluations…how come they stopped after the first couple weeks of free agency? Can we expect them back?
Keith Law: Kind of busy writing up the prospect stuff.
Keith Law: I did write up the Gray trade though.

Jeff: Keith – I understand that the Reds only acquired 1 year of Gray from NYY, but it seems to me that they essentially agreed to a package and made it contingent upon Gray agreeing to an extension. Otherwise, they were just going to back out altogether. There was no “here’s what we’ll give you if he signs; here’s what we’ll give you if he doesn’t.” Is that more understandable/justifiable to you, or is it a distinction without a difference?
Keith Law: If they were willing to trade for his one year with the extension, then they should have been willing to trade for the one year without it.

Tyler: I am glad I do not have a vote. Your ballot was one of the better ones for sure. I would have left Rivera off and felt really bad about it. I had him between 8th and 13th on this ballot and knowing full well he was getting in would have used it on someone else. As bad as I feel for McGriff he is going to get in soon. Out of all the players who did not get 5% is there any who you wish you still had a chance to vote for?
Keith Law: Ever? Lou Whitaker.

Aaron G: The Gonzalez hit in the 2001 WS was a humpback liner that if Torre had played the IF at double play depth Jeter would have caught.
Keith Law: Right? I mean, yes, Rivera gave up the batted ball, but it’s not like it was crushed.

Marshall MN: KLaw are you going on a vacation now that your Top 100 work is wrapping up?
Keith Law: I will take a few days off in early February. Not sure if I’ll go somewhere or just chill at home.

cnp: You read 104 books last year…nice. I only hit 60 so just making my way through last years Top Books™. If you haven’t read it, I thoroughly suggest Washington Black. Thought it was beautiful
Keith Law: Thank you, I will seek it out. Best new books I read were Lincoln in the Bardo, Exit West, From a Low and Quiet Sea, Sabrina, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Why We Sleep.

Ron: Keith – the hot take bait question these days seems to be, “is it immoral for our society to have billionaires?”. How would you answer that?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t; I’m not that concerned with morality in economics. I’ll take a system that feels ‘immoral’ if it means the economy is growing and the greatest possible number of people are getting all of their basic needs met.

Kacey: What’s the theory on gaining support for the HOF? Either you think someone is worthy or you don’t.
Keith Law: The crowded ballot and time to reconsider their qualifications.

Drew: Did you listen to any exceptional audiobooks last year that you’d recommend?
Keith Law: Killers of the Flower Moon.

Joe: Keith, knowing that you have finite time, would you ever see a movie that just looks good to you even if it got poor reviews?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jackie: Do you ever look at your posts to see how many clicks/responses they get? And does that affect what you later post, i.e., “Well, no one cared about my ‘Police Academy 9’ review, so I guess I won’t review any more Steve Guttenberg movies at Meadow Party.” Or are you … indifferent to the volume of response to your posts?
Keith Law: Sort of. I stopped doing music posts beyond the monthly playlists because people didn’t click much on album reviews or leave comments. But I review a lot of books or obscure movies that don’t get clicks, and I don’t mind that. The Top Chef reviews did pretty well, on the other hand, but took 3-4 hours (including time to watch), and I just can’t afford that.

Jeries: Can Nick Madrigal be a 4 WAR player if he hits zero home runs?
Keith Law: I think he’ll hit 5-8, and probably never see 4 WAR.

Thomas: Triston Casas should start the season in ….
Keith Law: I’d be fine sending him to Greenville.

Bob Pollard: Would you consider the Cardinals’ system “ridiculously prospect-rich”?
Keith Law: No, but it’s in the middle.

KillMonger: Thanks to you, I read Sabrina and absolutely loved it – powerful storytelling. On a random note – have you read Pale Fire? I’m on a Nabokov kick and I’m finishing up Pnin right now. His prose is HOF-level.
Keith Law: I did read Pale Fire and found it kind of annoying/frustrating. Too ‘inside baseball’ for me.

Querant: Is there any practical difference between getting an invite to major league training, and not getting an invite, for a player on a minor league deal? Do they get a larger stipend if they are invited to major league camp, better housing, etc.? Or is it just a matter of which clubhouse they go to each morning?
Keith Law: Better per diems and of course a chance to play in major league games, which means a chance to make the team or catch the attention of other teams.

Brent: Do you think Luis Gonzalez from CWS is an under the radar prospect worth keeping an eye on? Put up good numbers, though I think he’s old for his level, but does he have the potential to be a “prospect”?
Keith Law: He is a prospect. Wasn’t he just a second round pick?

Jake: As someone who is well to the right of you politically (but probably on the same page on baseball), can I apologize that my party nominated this moron and still stand behind him as he fucks everything up?
Keith Law: Yes, but if lots of people like you just move temporarily to the left, we can go back to our normal level of fucked-up as opposed to the current level of holy fucking shit we fucked this up.

Ian: You mean soon to be Academy Award Winning “The Wife”. Such a weird Oscar year.
Keith Law: I’m not sure. Colman could take it.

Todd: No cloud of PEDs on Ortiz’s ballot?
Keith Law: We remember what we choose to remember, and forget what it is convenient to forget.

Doug: Looking forward to your list next week. Also, I am glad the Dominican Series is over and Tatis won’t be able to break a finger just in case you keep him at #1.
Keith Law: He’s still #1 – that’s not news, since he was there in July.

el Guapo: On Tatis, obviously you are very high on him. Is it nitpicking to point out that he struck out at a 28% clip last year and that number didn’t come down even when he went on a tear (babip reliant)? Or is it just a 19 year old playing at a very advanced AA level and I need to get used to the fact that Ks are part of modern baseball. It’s worth noting for others (not sure I have seen you do this) making the Machado comp that Manny only K’ed at a 19% clip in AA at a similar age.
Keith Law: 28% isn’t that high today and he was, as you said, 19, exceptionally young for that level. And he’s a shortstop.

Drew: Are you planning to vote in the Democratic Primary? If so, will you take electability concerns into account, or are you going to vote for whomever you think would make do the job best if they win in the general?
Keith Law: Delaware’s primary is pretty late – April 26th in 2016 – so it may not matter at all.

Corey: Still thinking that the quickest way to end the shutdown is a mass TSA/air traffic controller sick-out. Not a strike as that’s illegal but if the global transportation system shuts down, gives the Traitor Turtle an out. This is purely about his ’20 re-election b/c of how tightly the KY GOP supports Dump.
Keith Law: I’d imagine many wealthy people who have supported the GOP on tax policies and the massive rollback of environmental and labor protections will be very unhappy if their flights are cancelled or delayed.

C: Is kikuchi a prospect or a veteran? How should a prospect be defined by a ranking service? Mlb experience or should age/professional (non minor league) experience effect if they are ranked in prospect rankings?
Keith Law: He played in a major league. He’s not a prospect. I do not rank NPB or KBO veterans.

Kurt: Are the Nats better this year than last? I’m not doing the, “better without Harper” thing…but if you had to guess, this roster will win more than 82 games, right?
Keith Law: Yes, they’re better. If they re-sign Harper after all, they’re the favorites in the East.

Jerry: Assuming no catastrophes (Bregman, Correa career-ending injuries, etc) how long do you think the Astros window of contention is open for?
Keith Law: I’d say another 4-5 years. The system is still above the median for me.

Justin R: How do you motivate yourself to write? I have outlined and planned novels for years but when it comes time to actually write a chapter, I freeze up.
Keith Law: Write something else first. Anything. A journal, a blog post, a letter to nobody. Then don’t stop – move right into writing your chapters.

John: I don’t know if you’ve read this, but I keep telling everyone. In the past election only 5% of americans voted for Trump or Hillary in the primaries. 5% of people decided the two people that could be our next president. VOTE IN PRIMARIES.
Keith Law: I hadn’t but it doesn’t surprise me. The Iowa Caucuses are the dumbest thing in our country’s dumb politics.

Kyle KS: What’s the reason behind the general lack of support for Rolen? Better hitter and defender than Vizquel but nowhere near the votes.
Keith Law: There’s a weird mythology around Vizquel from people who watched him and think they saw a much better defender than they actually saw.

Jim: How do you possibly deny that you are a leftist?
Keith Law: People call me a “leftist” because I think science is real, all people deserve equal treatment under the law, and we should base policies on evidence. Well slap my knee and call me Karl.
Keith Law: Thank you all for reading this week. The prospect package does indeed begin on Monday with the “just missed” list. I’ll chat next week to take your questions on the top 100, and then the farm rankings and org reports go up the following week. Thanks again and enjoy your weekends.

My latest game review for Paste looks at the deduction game Cryptid, where three to five players try to identify the location of the Creature by deducing the other players’ clues while trying to hide their own. It’s excellent.

Keith Law: It’s half past four and I’m shifting gears. Klawchat.

Bmosc: Keith, love the chats and content on the site. I always enjoy your levelheaded and logical takes on baseball and other issues. As a Yankee fan, who do you think would present more value, Harper or Machado, and how disappointed should I be that it seems Hal is more intent on pocketing the ridiculous revenue than he is on closing the gap b/w the Yanks and other contenders?
Keith Law: Either would be a big help – and yes, you should be frustrated. All owners have the money to improve, but the consensus among owners is that they should pocket more of the profits rather than passing it along to labor. Personally, I think Machado is a better fit for the Yanks, but if they signed Harper they’d make it work.

TE: With all the talk of Kyler Murray and the NFL draft, what does this mean for the A’s? Does he have to break his contract? Would the A’s get compensation? It seems like a pretty raw deal for them, given that Boras likely assured the team he would sign and play baseball exclusively (otherwise they wouldn’t have drafted him).
Keith Law: Right now it means nothing at all. He’s only declared for the NFL draft, which has no impact on the A’s or his baseball contract. It only starts to matter if he doesn’t show up for spring training/the season, or leaves the team at some point. He could owe the A’s the entire bonus, and no, they’d get no compensation. I suppose he’d make a lot more money in the short term, but there is no amount of money you could offer me that would make me consider risking traumatic brain injuries by playing football.

Ron: Astudillo have a roster spot this spring? Maybe should have one for being able to help out at a couple positions? Is the bat real? Thanks!
Keith Law: He can do enough with the bat that he should be on the roster. I don’t think he’s a regular, if that’s what you’re asking.

PA Prospects: You going to see Chris Newell play at any point this season? Any other SE PA prospects to look at?
Keith Law: Yep, I’ll see him and the younger Siani brother. Both are about 40-45 minutes from me.

dave from boston: Do you see the Redsox using Chris Sale once every five or six of his starts as an opener, pitching an inning or two only, in order to save wear and tear on him? Would you ever recommend something like this?
Keith Law: Not really sure that would do anything to help.

Chip: Does Houston’s recent draft history (hitting big w/Correa and Bregman and lots of hope for Tucker, missing on Appel and Aiken for various reasons) inform us at all as to what Elias likely does at 1/1? How does Rutschman compare to Wieters?
Keith Law: I don’t think it informs anything. There’s no consensus #1 (not Rutschman, not Witt Jr.) and they may simply try to cut the best deal among the pool of candidates and then try to go over slot multiple times with later picks, as the Astros did in the Correa year, and the Phillies and Twins did in ’16 and ’17.

Marvin: Instead of stalking that girl on Twitrter, do you think Trevor Bauer would have been better off tracking down where she went to school and/or worked, then tattling to her principal/dean and or boss while demanding that she be expelled or fired?
Keith Law: That would be seriously fucked up. What an entirely normal question.

Jo-Nathan: Hey Keith, is there any way to access to your work in Canada now that everything is behind ESPN+? I emailed and called ESPN weeks ago but I haven’t received a response. Very odd that they don’t want to take my money anymore (I get that its to block me from streaming content but I would gladly pay the same price to access writing content alone).
Keith Law: Unfortunately I don’t know of an answer yet. I’m sorry.

Susie: Do you see Ian Anderson as a top of the rotation type in the near future? Any concerns with the spin rate of his arsenal?
Keith Law: I do not have concerns about anyone’s spin rate unless the hitters start hitting it. The goal here is not maximizing spin rate, but maximizing results. If improving one’s spin rate gets better results, great, but when the results are good (as Anderson’s have been), why would we concern ourselves with his spin rate either way? (By the way, I have never heard anyone say his spin rates are poor.)

Dana: I think every MLB team should be forced to disclose their revenue and spend a certain percentage of it on player salaries. Agree?
Keith Law: Yes. You should go run the MLBPA.

Dusty: Any update on The Leftovers? I’ve been anxious to see what you thought of the 2nd and 3rd seasons.
Keith Law: I have no immediate plans to continue watching. I let my HBO subscription lapse a while ago.

Chris: What are your thoughts on all the Mets moves last weekend?
Keith Law: They keep trading dollars for 80 cents. Lockett is a waiver claim; Plawecki is at least a solid backup. The Houston deal was worse – Santana is a real prospect, Adolph has tools, while the return was an up and down type and an NP. I had multiple texts from scouts that day asking what the Mets were thinking.

Zarathustra: Do you have any book recommendations for someone who has read (and enjoyed) just about everything Richard Russo has written?
Keith Law: I would say Ann Patchett’s work – she lacks his wry humor, but her novels are also intensely humanist, with well-developed characters and real storylines built around the most universal emotions and themes.

Klentack: Which player fits better – Harper (due to LH power) or Machado (3B more position of need) for Phillies??
Keith Law: Again, either. I’m not sure there’s a club that couldn’t use both. Maybe the Rockies?

Lance: I just read an interesting article about Will Smith. I had no idea how effective he was last year. With his salary and control years, is it possible the Giants could get more for trading him than they would for Bumgarner?
Keith Law: I think the glut of relievers on the market would make that hard.

John: Hey Keith, did you ever write a review for D.H. Lawrence’s The Rainbow? Was curious to see your thoughts.
Keith Law: Never read it. Didn’t enjoy Women in Love.

Phil: Is Adames good enough at SS to stay there until Franco arrives, or does he move earlier?
Keith Law: I’m not sure either is a long-term shortstop; the best SS in the system is probably Fox.

Chris: Would the Yankees have been better off signing Dozier to play 2B and move Torres to SS instead of signing Tulo?
Keith Law: In the abstract, sure, but it’s an $8.5 million difference.

Jim: Hey, Keith. So reports are Dozier has signed with the Nats for 1/$9M. Good deal (2018 was an aberration) or bad (2018 was the first step off the cliff)?
Keith Law: Overpay, but the Nats probably have the greatest benefit from each marginal win, so it may not be an overpay for them specifically. Hell, I’m glad at least one GM is out there to win some games.

HugoZ: Now that the Braves definitely have the #9 pick this year, should it be a position player?
Keith Law: It should be the best player.

Jim: What is your take on the Braves firing Bridges and Clark?
Keith Law: Change in direction for the department. I know both guys, respect them quite a bit, and expect they’ll be out of work for about 20 minutes.

Joe Random: why do you think Kingery struggled last year? were there signs he will bounce back this year?
Keith Law: I don’t think it helped that he had to play so much on the left side of the infield, for which he is ill-suited.

Mark: Do you think it’s fair to judge past player performance on metrics that are valued more today for hall of fame consideration or does context of the era matter?
Keith Law: Other than maybe framing, what has really changed? People who claim OBP wasn’t valued are talking out of their asses – everyone knew making outs was bad. It was undervalued on the market, or as a tool for projection, but we have stuff back to Branch Rickey’s time about the value of getting on base.

BMonster: Do you have a target date for releasing your top 100? Thanks!
Keith Law: I believe I announced this last chat – it starts January 28th.

Mark: Do you think Andujar is a good fit for the Padres? Obviously 3B is a need, and they can be patient on his defense. What kind of package would it take to get him?
Keith Law: No, I do not.

Joe Random: how do you think Pache’s bat will develop? can he develop average power?
Keith Law: He already has average power.

Justin: Are you anticipating a labor strike with the way free agency has gone the past 2 years?
Keith Law: I’m anticipating a difficult negotiation, but that doesn’t have to be a strike/lockout.

Jay from southern IL: The local media is really talking up Cardinals prospects Malcom Nunez, Jhon Torres, and Joerlin de lo Santos. All are very young and far away, but I was wondering if you had opinions on these three? (Looking to eliminate the home team bias)
Keith Law: Torres is on my Cardinals rankings, which again you’ll see later this month.

Alex: Hi Keith.My girlfriend and i are expecting our first kid.any book recommandations to help with whats ahead?thank you
Keith Law: The Happiest Baby on the Block.

Chris: Would you rather give Bryce Harper a 10-year, $320M deal with a couple of opts out or a six-year, $240M deal with one opt out?
Keith Law: The six-year deal.

Nate: Keith, I find it almost incomprehensible that the reporting of only a few teams being in legitimate conversations with Harper and Machado. 26 year old generational talents hitting free agency just doesn’t happen. Do you think there is a lot more going on behind the scenes or is the new CBA really having that large effect on the way teams are looking to spend money?
Keith Law: The luxury tax cum salary cap is obviously having an effect, but it feels … collusive.

Andy: How disappointed were you in the golden globes, and do you think the Oscars will follow suit?
Keith Law: Disappointed is the wrong word – it hardly affects me at all. I do like seeing good work rewarded, whether it’s films, books, TV, music, because that can drive more of an audience to that work, and thus give the artists in question more money and opportunities to create more.

Rick C: Is there anything to the Bridges and Clark firing, or is it really just one of those proverbial changes in direction?
Keith Law: That’s all it is.

Dustin: I’ve finally begun work on Smart Baseball and am about 2/3 of the way through it. Will the final section include a best practices manual for making my father- and brother-in-law read it so we can have some intelligent conversations about MLB for a change?
Keith Law: Um …. yyyyyyyes.

Nils: Sorry, with the link: https://gizmodo.com/how-cartographers-for-the-u-s-military-inadvertent…
Keith Law: Thanks!

Justin: will there be a write up on the Brewers signing of Grandal?
Keith Law: Probably not. Prospect writing time.

Dagoberto Campaneris: $2 million for Shelby Miller — is there upside for the Rangers there? Or is Miller just irretrievably broken after all the injuries the past few years?
Keith Law: Coming back from TJ, very reasonable risk.

Justin: Assuming the Pirates have the ability to add, say, $15 million on payroll, what FA seems like an obvious fit for them? I’m specifically thinking they should take a shot on Lowrie for SS for a year (until Cole Tucker can move him to 2b), but you’ve always liked Newman.
Keith Law: I also don’t think Lowrie can handle short.

Brent: Hi, Keith, hope you’re well. Do you have a sense yet if Corey Ray is likely to reappear in your top 100?
Keith Law: Definitely not.

LukeM: You are going to get a million questions about them so Just get it out of the way and tell us who you predict Harper and Machado end up with?
Keith Law: Nah. I’ve never liked those predictions – it would be based on so little. When I talk to GMs or other top execs I don’t waste time asking them about that stuff. Their time is valuable and my access to it is finite, so I’d rather ask them about stuff they might really want to discuss candidly.

Jason: Whats the deal with grandal signing a one year deal? I love it as a brewers fan but couldn’t he have gotten a better multi-year deal?
Keith Law: On talent, sure. The market is bad this winter, and I think his poor October and reputation for not working well with pitchers hurt his market further.
Keith Law: That reputation goes back to San Diego, FWIW. I don’t think this is just “Kershaw hates him” or something.

Jimmy: Would it be a stretch to see Madrigal in the majors this year?
Keith Law: No, but I think his ceiling is really low.

Jack : Are you rooting for a Harper/Robles/Soto outfield for the next 6 years? I honestly think it has all timer potential if Bryce returns.
Keith Law: That would be tremendous, but it feels unlikely?

Tom: I think that Trevor Bauer question might have been in reference to something Darren Rovell did.
Keith Law: Ah. I missed that. I have contacted employers when I’ve thought I was threatened, though. I think that’s justified. Calling for someone to be expelled, though … jeez.

Canadian Jesus: Why isn’t the ability to have a high walk rate considered a tool? It doesn’t really seem like something that should be lumped into the hit tool with bat-speed etc…?
Keith Law: It’s a skill, but in Toronto we made it a separate grade on the scouting report, and I think now pretty much all teams do that in some fashion.
Keith Law: The tools are physical, though. Your plate discipline is a skill.

Kyle: Given all the recent issues with Facebook, do you have any misgivings about using it? Do you utilitize it for personal use or only work? I try to use it less and less (deleted the app) but so many friends and family use it for planning events or keeping in touch that it’s hard to step away. Curious how you feel about it.
Keith Law: I definitely have those misgivings. I do still use it for my public page (@keithlawwriter) and to communicate with a small number of friends who use Messenger all the time.

Stephen: In your opinion: Top 3 front offices in MLB? Bottom 3 front offices? Would love to see that list expanded in longer form too.
Keith Law: Nope. Never doing that.

Bradley: Thoughts on the Stewart grievance? Seems weird that his camp would claim he didn’t receive the 40% offer when something like that would easily be proved/disproved. Which apparently the Braves did as Stewart has already reported lost the grievance. Was this just spite? or was there something more to this? Any connections to the recent firings?
Keith Law: Was that his camp’s claim? I hadn’t heard that aspect. I thought the claim was that the injury didn’t merit the 60% cut.

Paul: How can mlb discuss pace of play when the off season has been a total snooze fest? Do you think these slow winters hurt the sport?
Keith Law: Yes. The winter meetings used to be a great time for the sport to grab headlines in the dead of the offseason.

Derek: Isaac Paredes – do you think he has a good chance to hit his way up to AAA this summer and debut sometime in 2020? Thanks for chatting!
Keith Law: Yep, that all sounds right.

Ed: Who is someone in the White Sox minors besides Eloy to be excited about thia season?
Keith Law: Cease finished in AA; he could debut this year. Basabe or even Luis Gonzalez could surface too.

Luke: Thoughts on Keon Broxton? Seems like the only deal that the mets didnt get fleeced
Keith Law: His defensive numbers last year were extremely fluky in a tiny sample and he’s probably a .280-290 OBP guy. Whee.

Raphael: Hey Keith, there’s an uncomfortable situation in the UFC at the moment as Rachael Ostovich, who admiringly decided to still compete next weekend despite recent injuries she sustained at the hands of her husband, is on the same card as known domestic abuser Greg Hardy (UFC’s first event with ESPN). I’m not going to ask for your opinion on the sport or of Dana White and his decision, but rather, for your thoughts on Ostovich taking the “everyone deserves a second chance” stance in regards to Hardy and her husband. Should we let victims decide how we should view abusers, or is this attitude, even if it belongs to the victims, simply part of why domestic violence is such a big issue, in that the victims are unable to accept their abusers for the monsters that they truly are?
Keith Law: I know nothing of this situation, but will say 1) we should always listen to victims but 2) it’s very common for domestic violence victims to ‘stand up’ for their abusers, such as declining to press charges. It’s complicated. Supporting victims is the one thing we could probably all agree on.

Mac: How did all 30 teams come to the same conclusion at the same time that they prefer profits over winning? Somethings not right.
Keith Law: It’s kind of weird, right?

PD: Thoughts on triple restaurant week?
Keith Law: should I know this? I think Philly’s restaurant week is coming up, actually.

Tom: What are your expectations for Shane Bieber? Think last year’s peripherals largely carry over and we see the ERA come down a fair amount?
Keith Law: Always going to be a big HR guy.

LukeM: Which board game, that you played for the first time in 2018, was your favorite?
Keith Law: Everdell. I wrote up my top ten for the year. That covers new games, but there were pre-2018 games I played for the first time and loved, including Sagrada. I also finally got and played Clank! in the last week and it’s pretty fun, if a bit luck-driven.

Gary: Is Ramos at 2/18m a better deal for the Mets than the 4/60m Grandal supposedly turned down?
Keith Law: Definitely. My favorite Mets move of the winter.

Clete: You a Tres Barrera guy? On any of the Nat’s catcher prospects?
Keith Law: He’s an org guy for me.

Marcus: I hate the “back in my day” person, but I’m lost on this one. My wife is doing a long-term sub position, and despite students refusing to turn work in on time–or even do it–she has been instructed not to fail anyone for anything. I can understand passing a student who may not do great work but is trying, but just shoving the problem on to the next grade…does that make any sense?
Keith Law: Sounds like a systemic issue – probably they don’t want the hassle of forcing a student to repeat a level. I don’t think that helps the child at all.

Matt: Did you see the movie Eighth Grade?
Keith Law: Not yet.

Andres: I know this is a sports/books/games/music type of chat, but in a simple answer — who’s most to blame for the government shutdown?
Keith Law: The guy who loves Wall and can’t stop talking about Wall.

Sloan: If you were Machado, and money was equal, would you join the Phillies, Yankees or White Sox?
Keith Law: The money is never equal. It’s just not – there are different tax considerations for each market, costs of living, etc.

Brandon: Do you think the recent signings of Grandal and Dozier to 1 year deals means that A.J. Pollock could be heading for a similar deal?
Keith Law: I’d be floored.

Sloan: Thoughts on the Herrera signing?
Keith Law: Surprised a guy who missed half of last year with an injury got that deal.

Alan: Do you think that Peter Alonso will be able to overcome his inability to field to be successful at the MLB level.
Keith Law: I think he’s a 40 defender right now. Either that gets a lot better, or he goes to the AL to DH.

Chris: Best case scenario for Tulo is to somehow stay healthy til Didi returns and give them a dead cat bounce half season, right?
Keith Law: Yep. Aubrey Huff had one of those for about four months. Then he cratered.

Thomas: What of peak offense year would you expect from Willy Adames given his hit and power tool? Is he a .300/.375/.475 type or is that overselling his power?
Keith Law: I think that oversells his power, not his hit tool, although with the silly ball maybe not.

Ben : I am so down with your take on Life and Times of Michael K. Couldn’t get engaged with it. Especially in comparison to the Road, which my eyes were like magnetically attached to.
Keith Law: Yeah, I enjoy fabulist novels but didn’t connect with that one.

Anthony: Grandal an overpay at 1/$18.25M?
Keith Law: No.

Mitch: Do you feel it’s likely that Edgar makes the leap into the HOF this time around?
Keith Law: No doubt.

Patrick: Waiting to board a flight to Chicago. Any restaurant recommendations?
Keith Law: Monteverde! Publican, Little Goat, any of Rick Bayliss’ places.

HugoZ: Well yes, but is the best player at nine likely to be a position player?
Keith Law: I honestly don’t know that at this point. It’s probably 55/45 that the best player available is a pitcher, because teams up top tend to avoid HS pitchers, so they get pushed down a bit. It’s also just a bad college crop.

Jeff: Are you a believer in the revamped swing of Kevin Smith (Blue Jays)? Is he a possible regular in the bigs
Keith Law: No. Utility guy.

John: Will Ross Stripling be back in the rotation and pitching like a No.2/3 guy this year?
Keith Law: I think he’s a 5.

Phil: Will smith or Keibert Ruiz?
Keith Law: That’s not close – Ruiz is an elite prospect.

Jordan: Do you think Conforto can return to an all star type of hitter this season? Had a really promising second half. Feels like the Mets rushed him back from shoulder surgery.
Keith Law: Yes and I think that’s probably the reason.

seanj8: MLB wants to expand, so what two cities make the most sense to be awarded teams? Mine are Nashville and Montreal. Portland gets some consideration too.
Keith Law: Nashville is growing like mad, but even so, it would be the second smallest market in MLB. Indianapolis actually has more people (not that I’d put an MLB team there either). Only Milwaukee is smaller. Austin and San Antonio’s MSAs are both over 2 million, and they’re 80 miles apart from each other. That’s a lost opportunity there.

Jeff D.: If you’re Andrew Friedman and offer Harper a short term/high value deal which he rejects, what’s your next move to improve the team?
Keith Law: Offer him a longer deal.

Jerry: Who do you see being the Astros 4th and 5th starters by June? Assuming no injuries of course….
Keith Law: Josh James and Forrest Whitley.

Granfalloon: How much responsibility do you think you and other saber-oriented writers, who spent the last 20 years arguing online that free agent contracts were bloated and that teams were overpaying for veterans, bear for the current state of things where franchises are being cheap and not fairly compensating players? In retrospect, do you think y’all shouldn’t have been making those arguments?
Keith Law: That’s dumb for a few reasons, not least among which is that more analytical writers have talked up players like Harper and Machado, hitting free agency at 26, and their markets are thin too.

Green Book : I am a piece of shit movie that is racially bananas. What is happening and how am I winning things when movies like Beale Street, Favourite, Blackkklansman, and Roma are out there. (Granted this was still a poor year IMO on the film front).
Keith Law: I think it was a tremendous year for movies. I have 40 films ranked over Green Book.

Chris D: What do you think about Nathaniel Lowe? Will he carve out an above average MLB career?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Frank Thomas (not that one): What would your solution be to fix what has become a major problem in MLB as far as owners spending on MLB talent? Salary cap? Higher floor? Less service time before a player hits FA? Limiting lengths and values of max contracts a la the NBA?
Keith Law: Speed up free agency, raise the minimum salary for 0-2 guys.

Mat: Who’s your #1 Prospect for the June 2019 MLB Draft?
Keith Law: TBD. There isn’t a clear one yet.

Ricky: Favorite meal to make during the week when you are tight on time?
Keith Law: You can spatchcock and roast an entire chicken in about 45 minutes. I also like to do simple chicken cutlets – sometimes just panko breading, sometimes adding sesame seeds and maybe some chopped sunflower seeds – as a main dish because they scale well and reheat nicely in the oven.

Mark: Would you ever consider writing a book about your experience as a GM? I think it would be very fun to read about trades, player development, constructing a team, etc…
Keith Law: I’d love to, but I’d need to be a GM first.

Sean: I’m thinking now is the time to go all in if I’m running the brewers. So close last year, why not trade for Bumgarner and sign Keuchel?
Keith Law: Don’t think they need two starters – they have Burnes and Woodruff, both good, both ready for the rotation.

Sean: Hi, Keith. Thank you for doing these and I hope all is well. I wanted to get your opinion on what the Padres should do this offseason. Stand pat? Focus on 2020? Go after an Ace? I still think we’re a year away and would hate to see us make another move like the Hosmer signing of a year ago.
Keith Law: Focus on 2020, try to dump one of Myers or Hosmer for a bad contract at another position.

Econ: Is there a space somewhere in between where “players deserve more” and “overpaying marginal players is a bad idea” that can exist?
Keith Law: The idea of overpaying free agents also oversimplifies the part about how the value of a marginal win varies by team. An extra win for the Nationals, who are in a decent-sized market and really should be a playoff team, is worth more than the same extra win is to the Padres, who are not contenders, or even the Reds, who need to pick up maybe ten or more wins to become contenders.

Everett L: Did Nico Hoerner change how you rate him based on his play in the AFL?
Keith Law: No. I like to watch and think about players there, but try not to make dramatic changes to evaluations off that look because it’s not normal minor league play.

AGirlHasNoName: Ok, I have a crystal ball, if the Cubs cut Russell they win 91 games and miss the playoffs, if they keep him they win 94 and make the playoffs. As a fan, do you still want them to cut him? Is there a point where the cost isn’t worth the benefit?
Keith Law: Then he’s more than worth his salary – the playoff berth is worth a lot more than the marginal $6.5 million or so to keep him. It becomes a moral decision. I personally would not employ a player who did what he did, such as choking his wife (which, I’ve mentioned many times before, is a major precursor to homicide).

Sean: Giants looking at signing potentially trading Panik and signing LeMahieu, that would be a net positive IMO. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Depends on what you get for Panik.

TomBruno23: If Bumgarner is available, I think the Cardinals should be all over that. Fits in well with their older player/short term contract roster and wouldn’t/shouldn’t cost too much in terms of a trade. Dakota Hudson for a year of Bumgarner?
Keith Law: Hudson’s probably a reliever so I’d do it.

Roma : I think I *might* be the easiest choice for Best Picture in the last 10 years. This is like Mike Trout competing against Mike Moustakas, Jean Segura, and a replacement level player who is also racist.
Keith Law: Yes, but I still think A Star is Born wins.
Keith Law: I’d vote for Roma among the likely nominees.

Canadian Jesus: I get your answer, but if plate discipline is a skill shouldn’t fielding be classed as a skill as well? There is obviously way more to fielding than just range or loose hips.
Keith Law: You’re being a little pedantic here, but also, much of fielding is determined by physical skill.

LukeM: Who is a comparable player to Nolan Gorman? Tons of power but strikeouts are a concern. Is a Joey Gallo or Khris Davis comparison fair?
Keith Law: I like him more than I ever liked Davis as a prospect. I think Gorman will hit a bit more than Gallo. Gallo has the most raw power I’ve ever seen on a prospect.

Adam: Is there any logic to the Padres signing Hosmer to that big deal last year and now going back to penny pinching mode? I get that Hosmer contract was a mistake but cant deter you from making any other big financial decisions.
Keith Law: Are they pinching pennies or just avoiding a second mistake?

Spiny Norman: Dinsdale?
Keith Law: He’s nailed to the coffee table.

Andrew Friedman: Who would you rather trade…Verdugo or Ruiz/Smith
Keith Law: Verdugo. I think he’s good but easier to replace than Ruiz.

Ridley Kemp: Thank you for your tireless…well, it’s probably pretty tiring…rebuttal of the antivaxxers. The real danger they represent needs answering, but it can’t be fun.

Have you had a chance to read Michael Pollan’s How To Change Your Mind? I picked it up when my therapist told me she was reading it for the third time. As a non-user of controlled substances, I still found it fascinating and I learned more about the the brain and depression treatments than I have anywhere else.
Keith Law: I haven’t. I did just finish Leonard Mlodinow’s Elastic (as an audiobook), about the power of ‘flexible thinking,’ which also gets into a lot of how we come to conclusions and refuse to change them, often because our brains don’t even accept other possible interpretations or evidence.

Noah Syndergaard: We’re going to get Biden vs. Warren as a sequel to Clinton vs. Bernie, aren’t we? Team Trump would love that.
Keith Law: Biden needs to step aside, now. Next generation, please.

Daniel: Considering the recent reports of MLB’s revenues, are there any competitive teams that can reasonably justify not being willing to spend above the tax? I’m a Braves fan, and considering those revenue reports, and the whole Cobb County/SunTrust Park thing, I really don’t understand why they’re not in on Harper. (Maybe they are, and AA is just really good at keeping it out of the media?)
Keith Law: I think that’s corporate ownership telling them not to spend.

Cjc: Thoughts on Chance Adams having a bounce-back year as a starter? Or is he just an up and down reliever?
Keith Law: Reliever only.

Dan: Hi Keith – thanks for all your work. With Kopech out this year and some important pieces that will at least begin the year in the minors, is 2020 a realistic expectation for the White Sox to start contending for their division? I’ll be honest, I have concerns with the development of Giolitto/Moncada/Rodon and others, and am afraid of the rebuild not panning out.
Keith Law: That division is weak enough that they should be doing what they’re doing – trying to go get a big star now, figuring he’ll be there for the next 4-5 years as the kids arrive and the team gets really good.

Matt W: So wait, do the Mets really not scout below full season ball?
Keith Law: That is correct.

Ben: Keith, you’ve been high on Willi Castro for a little while. But, others in the industry label him as a likely utilityman/fringe regular. Do you think he can be the Tiger’s answer at SS?
Keith Law: I do. High IQ guy, feel to hit, absolutely has to get stronger.

Biff: Do you have any insight into the slow development/ lack of improvement of Moniak ?
Keith Law: Swing issues, possible the team overrated the makeup.
Keith Law: Also, when I’ve seen him, he’s been unable to recognize spin.

Pat D: Since we expect the various veterans committees to make bad choices, which would be “worse”: McGriff getting in via committee (I think we all expect him to) or Vizquel getting in via BBWAA?
Keith Law: The committee’s picks nearly always suck. Vizquel getting in would be a real indictment of the BBWAA even as the electorate has been getting smarter.

Mark: Should cardinals offer Keuchel 1 year at 23M?
Keith Law: Shouldn’t every contender offer him that?

Archie: Any chance the Brewers give up Burnes or Hiura in a deal for Bumgarner?
Keith Law: No. That would be really stupid, and they’re not stupid.

BK: Does Brandon Marsh have any “star” upside?
Keith Law: yes.

JJ: what kind of pro does Kyler Murray project to be?
Keith Law: Enormous range of outcomes. Could make some All-Star teams. Could stall in AA. The guy is 1000 or so at bats behind where he should be at this age.
Keith Law: Maybe 800. You get the point.

Chris : Wouldn’t you rather have Plawecki as a back-up at a$1.5M than d’Arnaud at $4M?
Keith Law: Yes, because d’Arnaud is made of glass.

john: why do minor leaguers get paid so little??
Keith Law: Because MLB slipped a clause into the GOP Tax Bill from 2017 that protected them.

Concerned Teacher: You mentioned in a previous chat not having heard of the vaping company named Juul. I am a high school teacher and a parent I think you should familiarize yourself with them. Kids are entering high school already hopelessly hooked on nicotine because of these Juuls, which look very similar to a USB drive. They were the fastest start up company ever to reach $10B in.
Keith Law: I have now, of course. The Ringer called them a scam for Big Tobacco in a post today. Vile.

EG: Bryce harper will finish the year ranked top _____ in fWAR.
Keith Law: Ten.

Tony B: Is it better to vote for someone you view as a leader and can lead to unity in the nation or someone who you agree with their political views?
Keith Law: why not both girl dot gif

Aaron: Just curious, considering the options at most minor league ballparks, Do you ever eat at a stadium and if so what?
Keith Law: Almost never.

Joe: In general, I’m not a fan of relievers in the Hall of Fame. But if you go by the standards set by the guys already in, Wagner is a Hall of Famer, right? There are 7 pitchers who were primarily relievers in the HOF right now (including Smith), and I think it’s pretty easy to argue Wagner was more dominant than at least 3-4 of them. He just didn’t stick around a few more years and compile saves at the end of his career.
Keith Law: Wagner is better than Smith and probably better than Hoffman. I think he’ll sneak in.

Greg: Keith- Re: Kyler Murray. There’s been some argument that since he plays QB, and since the rules these days protect QBs to a nearly ridiculous degree, the risk to him is much less than if he played a different position. Jeff Samardzija playing baseball over being a tight end made sense, but QB is protected so much more than even two years ago. At this point if he were a catcher I think he’d take more foul balls of the head than he’d take hits to the head as a QB. I originally thought it was a bo-brainer to pick baseball for the reasons you mentioned, but the more I watch football and every roughing the passer penalty, it’s tough to imagine he’d rather ride buses for 4-5 years that be a starting QB in the NFL in 8 months.
Keith Law: It takes just one hit, even an illegal one, to wreck a guy’s life. And he’s small.

Sean: Did you happen to see Sean Doolittle’s thread on twitter regarding ways to improve the game? I think it’s great to see him interacting with fans directly, a lot of good points were made. Unlike Bauer, he seems to have a good head on his shoulders.
Keith Law: He’s one of the best humans in the sport and we are very fortunate to have him and Eireann as ambassadors for the game in general and for just being good, kind people.

Bob: Do you think Faedo can get back to a mid-rotation projection or is he more of a 4/5 type?
Keith Law: Probably reliever.

Andy: What do you think about the movie vice?
Keith Law: I’ll see it this weekend. Tried to see it Tuesday night but the showing was nearly sold out and I will not sit in the front row.

Michael: What did you think of Isle of Dogs?
Keith Law: My review.

Dan: What does the future hold for Sean Reid-Foley? He seemed likely to be in the opening day rotation but that was before they added Shoemaker and Richard to the mix.
Keith Law: Needs a better pitch for LHB or he’s not a starter.

Mark: Future value of Keston Hiura? Can he turn into a Daniel Murphy type player (high avg which helps the power play up, mediocre D)?
Keith Law: RHB so he won’t have the platoon issues.

Dell: Any chance Caleb Ferguson gets another shot to start? And are you out on Urias?
Keith Law: I’m not out on any Uriases that I can think of. If you mean Julio, we are in uncharted waters for someone with that injury.

Dan: Could you see Ronny Mauricio as a guy who could see a catastrophic rise in the rankings over the next 2-3 years?
Keith Law: That’s an interesting choice of adjectives there. He’s got enormous potential, though.

Bob: Any good books to help with anxiety?
Keith Law: Fully Present is my go-to recommendation.

Dr. Bob: What would happen if an MLB team bucked the trend and doubled the salaries of their minor league players?
Keith Law: A very angry phone call from Park Avenue.

Jake Lawson: Just FYI, if you ever check out the Round Rock Express, there’s a Salt Like BBQ in the parking lot. It’s not Franklin’s or Mickelthwait, but it’s miles ahead of most ballpark food.
Keith Law: I’ve actually been to that one. It was solid. Probably a 50.

Lou: Aside from Ruiz and Verdugo, have the Dodgers drained most of their elite talent from the farm?
Keith Law: No.

Rahn: I ask you this every offseason so here goes: Who is one Pirates prospect who most intrigues you and whose development you’ll be tracking closely?
Keith Law: Org reports run the week of February 4th.

Kacey: If a hs player was unknown and then hit their growth spurt and had an incredible year with their HS team, would they likely slip through the cracks because they aren’t known via their travel team?
Keith Law: No, unless he were in some really remote place that is generally undercovered – North Dakota, Alaska, something like that.

Archie: Is Billy Wagner the best small college player you have ever seen?
Keith Law: Dunno, Alex Bregman was a great small college player. He’s only about 5’8″.

Jim: How do you “speed up free agency”? Front offices would sign off on a deadline to signing players? How does that work?
Keith Law: A deadline would help, yes.

Bob: One report I’ve read on Kelenic warns he has some “tweener warning signs” in his profile. Is something you’d agree with?
Keith Law: No. Sounds like a bad source.

Danny: Do you think Deivi Garcia will be a starter and if not, can he be a set up or closer type?
Keith Law: Starter.

Dave: Did you do a review of into the Spider-Verse? Seemed to hate it during the Globes.
Keith Law: I didn’t review that or the two Disney entries. I found Spider-Verse cliched and unbelievably violent for a movie aimed at kids. It had a few laughs (Spider-Ham was legitimately funny). The resolution really didn’t do enough for the Miles character, either.

LukeM: Any thoughts on Malcolm Nunez for the Cardinals. Saw an article showing his ridiculous wRC+ this past year and he looks really promising. I know he’s super young and a long ways off but it’s fun to look for potential future superstars.
Keith Law: Do not use wRC+ to evaluate prospects. And Nunez went into the DSL with more real game experience than most of the competition. That’s not to say he’s a zero, but that this is serious stat-line scouting.

Mark: Did you do voices when you used to read to your daughter ?
Keith Law: Always. After a few books she’d demand it.

SpG: Unbelievably Violent? 80’a Kids were raised on Predator & Robocop, man… it was a love letter to comic book readers.
Keith Law: That doesn’t make it any less violent. And violence is a weak way to write your superhero story.

Kacey: When did white supremacist become an offensive term?
Keith Law: When did Rep. King’s party become comfortable with white supremacists in its house?

Mark: Just curious, given your love of gaming, have you ever played Magic: The Gathering? I know Longenhagen is a fan, and they’ve been making a push into eSports recently with their new Arena product.
Keith Law: No – not interested in CCGs as a genre.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – back to writeups for now. Thank you as always for reading and bearing with me this month. Still more calls to make and words to write. I promise to give you the best words!

Keith Law: I wish the world was flat like the old days. Klawchat.

Seth: Andrew Vaughn likely to be the first 1b only prospect to be drafted in the top 5 in a long time? If so, is it a reflection on his skills or a weaker draft class?
Keith Law: Possible, not likely. A reflection on the draft class either way.

Nick: Doesn’t it kind of feel like the Cubs are spiraling downwards towards mediocrity ?
Keith Law: No.

J: Trying to sift through the numerous Padres’ pitching prospects. Do you see Paddack, Quantrill, or Allen making any dent in 2019? Is Quantrill just an org guy at this point, or room for redemption?
Keith Law: Paddack for sure. The others possibly. Q is more than an org guy, but he’s also regressed a good bit since the first summer.

J: Framber Valdez. Good enough to start the season in Astros’ rotation?
Keith Law: I’d say probably not, since they’re contenders.

Trevor: Are you in favor of expansion and would it help solve the slow free agent market?
Keith Law: Yes, and probably not.

Ted: Klaw,

What’s your opinion on how we should view movies, music, etc. that was made during times when certain words or actions were, for lack of a better term, more “acceptable”? I was thinking about your recent comments about the Ten Years After song this past weekend when “Money for Nothing” came on the radio, which also infamously includes a homophobic slur. Mark Knopfler has always claimed he got the lyrics from a time he was in a New York appliance store and overheard a delivery worker making comments about a video on MTV (which is also why the characters in the video are dressed that way), and thus is taking poetic license. Of course, no one in their right mind would write those lyrics today. But it seems that if you view a lot of art made 30 or 50 or 200 years ago through the prism of current societal norms, much of it will appear racist, homophobic and misogynist. After all, it wasn’t that long ago when people would commonly say “that’s gay” to mean they thought something was stupid.
Keith Law: I think understanding the context of the objectionable language or ideas is important. For example, in that song, Knopfler is mocking the speaker (who is trying to mock musicians like Knopfler), for his overall attitude and for assuming that a singer with one earring is gay. I hate the word, but have no objection to art that repeats the word in a manner that denigrates someone using it. Compare that to the Scarlet Pimpernel, a novel I really enjoyed as a reader, but one that uses a particularly bad anti-Semitic stereotype for a central character. It’s a blast to read, but when it came up as a possible book choice in my daughter’s curriculum this year, I asked the teacher to consider removing it.

Joe: What’s your opinion of the Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez? Is he getting any consideration for your top 100 or is it too soon? Do you think he has superstar potential?
Keith Law: Nowhere close to top 100 yet.

Mo: What happened to Shane Baz last year? Has his stock dropped dramatically?
Keith Law: No. Did something happen? I can’t even think of why you’d ask about his stock dropping.

Lance: Do you think Kyle Wright will throw significant innings for the Braves this season? It’s hard to project anything for them with the glut of high-upside SP prospects they possess.
Keith Law: As you said, it’s hard to project innings totals for their arms. I would guess, based on very little but my own outside sense, that he doesn’t throw much for them unless they suffer multiple injuries or trade at least two guys ahead of him in the queue.

Lonnie: Javier Baez repeating his 2018 season – buying or selling?
Keith Law: Buying. You didn’t say when; I am buying that he can have that season again.

Yong: What is your read on Adalberto Mondesi? Do you think he’s close to the player he was in the second half last year, or was that an abberation?
Keith Law: I think that’s an aberration, boosted by the juiced MLB ball.

waks: sorry, long q. so i’m a labor advocate (and union councilor, to boot), and i’ve long thought about the power that the MLBPA has, while recognizing that it’s done a fair amount short-sighted things. One of the things i can’t stop thinking about however, is how bizarre it is that average fans are likely to side with billionaire owners over “greedy” millionaire players (despite the fact that people come to see those guys play, not take a tour of the facility). How can the MLBPA combat this? Is it even worth combating it?
Keith Law: They’ve never taken it seriously enough, going back to when I was a kid. I do think it’s worth combating it, and that it would help if the PA would align itself with unions in general – something they’ve eschewed in the past, with players crossing picket lines for other unions.

Dana: If you’re the Yankees, are you comfortable going into Spring Training with Luke Voit and Greg Bird as 1B options?
Keith Law: No.

Rodney: Is there any chance Richard Urena becomes an everyday player? Age and scouting the stat line make it seem like a possibility, but there are plenty of red flags.
Keith Law: Very unlikely.

Fred: Is Kyle Lewis regaining top 100 status simply a matter of putting together a healthy, productive season, or has he fallen further than that?
Keith Law: Not being flippant, but let’s see a healthy, productive season, and then discuss it. We have no idea at this point what such a season would even look like for him.

Ron: HI Keith- The Cruz signing a decent deal? Get the bat if there is something left and maybe an influence on Sano etc? Money wasn’t bad and maybe has a year left in the tank? Your thoughts? Thanks!
Keith Law: Yep, very good deal. Twins are quietly building a legitimate threat to Cleveland.

Eric H.: Daniel Norris has been a mix of unhealthy and ineffective since joining the Tigers. Any realistic chance he regains his form?
Keith Law: I think it’s all about health and velocity, and those two are probably connected. With a plus FB, he’s a GUY. With a slightly below-average FB, he’s more like a middle reliever or maybe a long man.

Jim L: Why didn’t Trump ask Mexico for ONLY $5 billion to build the wall?
Keith Law: Now Mexico is going to pay for it via tariffs. Or something. Is the swamp drained yet?

Moe Mentum: Any rational explanation for Harold Baines beating Edgar Martinez to Cooperstown?
Keith Law: Do you consider corruption a rational explanation? As they say in White Christmas, it’s not good, but it’s a reason.

Rhys: HNY Keith. Do you see Daniel Murphy playing more than 100 games this season at 1B and if so, might that mean the Rockies are betting on Brendan Rodgers seizing the 2B job? What are realistic projections for each if so?
Keith Law: I don’t get that signing at all. Murphy at 1b is barely worth the roster spot, and he can’t play 2b any more. To give him that kind of guaranteed money seemed like extremely wishful thinking.

Jack SF: HNY Keith! Is the Brantley acquisition a foreshadowing of Tucker’s exit from Houston? Traded for Realmuto? Is there Yelich potential there with Tucker in Miami?
Keith Law: I like Tucker but don’t think this means Tucker is getting traded.

Sweeney: At what point do strikeouts become so much of a problem that teams begin preaching about making contact and using the whole field over hitting the ball in the air to the pull side? When teams are averaging 12 ks per game? 15? 17?
Keith Law: Some teams are already doing that, but we haven’t reached an inflection point where the contact-oriented approach is more valuable.

Henry: Hi Keith, any thoughts on Jeff Passan joining ESPN. Seems like a nice addition. Keep up the great work!
Keith Law: I’m thrilled. Jeff is great at his job and I’ve been friends with him for a long time now. He also knows his KC barbecue.

Moe Mentum: What non-academic advice would you give college freshmen, in order to maximize their experience while in school?
Keith Law: This might be more like academic advice but if I could do it over again, I’d focus on taking classes on things I loved, or was truly interested in, rather than trying to figure out what classes or major would be the most valuable. The idea that you should enjoy your social life and hate your academic life is just dumb. (Not that my alma mater had a great social life, or that I was anywhere ready to enjoy one if it did.)

Chris: Do you like eating at restaurants or cooking more?
Keith Law: Eating out. Then I don’t have to clean. It gets expensive, though.

Mark: What chance do you think Donaldson has of posting at least 5 WAR this year?
Keith Law: I’d bet the under, but the odds are not zero.

Ryan: keith, huge braves fan, but wondering why they havn’t done more, price just to high for AA?
Keith Law: It’s January 3rd. Lots of offseason left.

Nick: What do you make of reports like the White Sox won’t go over 7 years for Harper/Machado? Is that just posturing to control the price?
Keith Law: I do not believe those reports.

BeefLoaf: Can you please rank Rick Hahn 1-30 (1 being the best) out of current MLB GM’s
Keith Law: I have never ranked GMs and I’m never going to do so.

Vinny : Are the Padres actually going to make a big trade this year?
Keith Law: Why should they unless it’s a good one? They’re going to be good, maybe as soon as 2020. Do you want them to trade Turner and Ross for Wil Myers and stuff again?

Ron: Fantasy baseball question – who has the best 2019 season out of beiber, toussaint, kikuchi, or Cahill?
Keith Law: No idea – I haven’t played fantasy baseball in almost 20 years now.

Juwan: If you were the GM of the Nats, would you prioritize bringing Harper back, or focus on a Rendon extension?
Keith Law: Love Harper but I think extending Rendon and using any remaining cash this winter to upgrade 2b and the back of the rotation would be the better move to contend in 2019.

Matt: So how does the shutdown end? The Dems can’t cave because if they do, the GOP will always resort to shutting down the government until they get what they want. On the other hand, Trump is a 4 year old child with narcissistic personality disorder. He doesn’t have the mental capacity to “take a loss” even if it’s for the good the country.
Keith Law: I have wondered this myself – if the GOP would eventually rebel against Trump enough to reopen the government, for the good of the people who actually voted for them.

Sheng: Does Harper have the higher upside while Machado the higher floor? Would it make sense for a team to offer a 2 year deal worth 100m? And would either think of accepting such an offer?
Keith Law: Machado has the higher floor; I don’t know that I agree either has a clearly higher upside; and I can’t imagine either player accepting an offer that short when they’re likely to get 8+ years and could end up at 10/$300MM.

Juwan: Are you still as high on Victor Robles as you once were? Still think the McCutchen comp fits?
Keith Law: Yes, maybe yes, could be more defense and a shade less power.

Michael: Why did you make a tweet slamming clickbait rumors/sources, then like a tweet a few hours later claiming that Harper is going to sign with the Cubs, and then block people who called you out for the hypocrisy?
Keith Law: Because that’s not hypocrisy, a word that people like to use on twitter without knowing what it means (or what the Like function is). And the tweet in question, from my pal Brett over at Bleacher Nation, did not claim Harper was going to sign with the Cubs or anything close to it, so the single person I blocked was, to use the technical term, utterly full of shit, as are you.

Steve: Belt for Conforto, who says no?
Keith Law: The Mets should.

Jim: Thanks for the chats. Would Verdugo, Maeda and a bullpen arm be a fair return for Kluber?
Keith Law: No.

James : aside from Vlad Jr., who’s the one prospect you think will come up and have a strong 2019 year?
Keith Law: Robles. Eloy. Whitley. I could see Tatis Jr spending half the year in the majors and producing.

Dan: Curious on your thoughts of JP Crawford as a hitter. Think the move to SEA might help him to concentrate on hitting gap to gap, instead of the “long ball” mentality? Thank you and happy 2019!
Keith Law: I think it’s more about him than the ballpark – he has to accept the type of hitter he is, not try to hit for power, and frankly to be more aggressive in all aspects of the game: ambushing good pitches to hit when he’s ahead, running out key groundballs, getting after balls in the field. He has superstar ability but for reasons I don’t understand his visible effort level was not there last year.

Justin R: When we can expect your 2019 prospects columns to hit?
Keith Law: The week of January 28th. I guess I should start writing those.

Justin R: Just bought the Smart Baseball audiobook…did I make the right call or should I have gone dead tree?
Keith Law: I’m just happy you’re reading it in any format.

Thomas: Can we expect book #2 any time soon?
Keith Law: April 2020.

James: Hey Keith. Great HOF ballot, awesome to see Andruw get your vote. Who else would you have included if allowed unlimited votes?
Keith Law: I listed those in the column on my ballot.

Jeff: Keith – It seems the Dodgers involvement in additional trades is tied, at least in some way, to Harper’s decision. Do you agree? If so, are there any smaller moves you see a positives to help them finally get over the hump?
Keith Law: I do not agree – I don’t know for sure that they’re on him.

Rell: Do you ever gamble on baseball
Keith Law: No.

Kevin: Do you see anything with Soroka’s delivery that would suggest long term shoulder issues?
Keith Law: I don’t love it, the low slot/arm path seems to put a little stress on the shoulder, but 1) I don’t think it’s a huge red flag and 2) some guys have bad deliveries and stay healthy anyway, Chris Sale being the most obvious example.

Steeeeve: Why was Harper’s defense so bad last year?
Keith Law: Mike Petriello at MLB did a great piece where he looked at all of Harper’s key ‘plays not made.’ I got the sense this was a deliberate move by Harper to not sacrifice his body for defense as much as he had in previous years, perhaps (I’m inferring here) to ensure he stayed healthy all year for free agency. I don’t think he was actually a worse defender by skill.

Mo: Re: Baz, I was basing it on his poor results in the second half, being shipped to Tampa as a PTBNL, and him being excluded from the Rays top 10 on BA
Keith Law: Yeah, still not seeing it. He only made 12 starts, all in short-season, and his best outings came in his second half. Being traded isn’t a marker against a player. I don’t write for BA and can’t explain anything about their lists.

Larry: Who has more helium potential- Vientos or Mauricio?
Keith Law: Mauricio has the higher ceiling, Vientos might do the most this year to improve fans’ awareness/perception of him.

Anthony: You ever watch Silence of the Lambs? Thoughts if you have?
Keith Law: Nope, nor do I plan to.

TP: What is the rationale behind having a different ball in MLB and MiLB? How does that impact player evaluations?
Keith Law: There is no rationale – MLB doesn’t even want to admit there is a difference – and IMO it screws up attempts to grade power.

Andrew: Thoughts on Bobby Abreu as a HoF candidate when he appears on the ballot with Jeter?
Keith Law: He’ll be below the line for me.

Concerned Seattle Fan: Is most of Jarred Kelenic value tied into his defensive development? His hit tool seems to be intact but can he become a 25-25 type player?
Keith Law: No, and yes.

Kretin: Is Chris Rodriguez a sleeper prospect this year if healthy?
Keith Law: He was top 100 for me before he got hurt so I don’t think he could be a true ‘sleeper’ this soon.

Fred: Who do you prefer between Anthony Kay and Grant Holmes?
Keith Law: Anthony Kay.

Sean : Favorite movie last year?
Keith Law: Burning. My top ten, as of 12/31, is here.

Kyle: What does Braxton Garrett need to do in your mind to have a “good” year?
Keith Law: Just be healthy.

Matt: Is Kelenic now the Marineers best prospect? Do you think he can hit 25-30 homers in safeco?
Keith Law: It’s probably Sheffield, then Kelenic and Dunn.

JD: Does Charterstone work well as a two-player game?
Keith Law: Yes. You can also use “automa” as neutral players if you want to keep it from becoming too simple for the two of you to rack up goods/points.

don’t wear pearls: HOF induction is the game’s highest honor. If stealing numbers is stealing money, nobody stole more than Bonds and Clemens on their respective sides of the ball.
Keith Law: Well, I don’t know how you steal numbers, nor do I see how this somehow equates to stealing money. If you figure out who stole i, let me know, because for years I’ve been wondering if I just imagined it.

Amy: $400mil to Harper or spread around to Pollack, Kimbrell, Keuchel and more?
Keith Law: Depends on the team, but the latter (excluding Kimbrel, who looks like a time bomb to me) makes more sense.

Luis Rengifo: How do you view my breakout season last year? Has my prospect status risen?
Keith Law: A prospect now, maybe a utility guy, but a big rise from the time of the trade.

Zirinsky: Tulo signing: assuming the Yanks are quick to dump him if he can’t play/isn’t healthy, it’s a decent move right?
Keith Law: Eh. Lot of people seem to be assuming he’ll either be fine, or they’ll just cut him in March. One, I don’t buy that he’ll be fine after almost two years of not playing due to injury, a long history of injury issues before that, and declining defensive skill. Two, I don’t believe they’ll just cut him – more likely he pulls an Alomar and just quits mid-game in March – since he’s a respected veteran and they’ll love his clubhouse presence yata yata. And three, having him precludes bringing in another option for the same role as SS fill-in until Didi returns (or 2B fill-in with Gleyber at SS). It is a gamble, with some risk and some small reward.

Paella Pete: Seems fair to say that you were more excited about the prospect of Chaim Bloom becoming Mets GM than any of the other options… What do you think so far of the job BVW has done?
Keith Law: Bloom was the best choice, but they picked the guy who promised he could contend in 2019. So far BVW has traded the team’s top two prospects for insufficient return, overpaid for a reliever (with a DV history), and signed a catcher to a good deal.

Rhys: If you’re a Phils fan, should you be rooting for Middleton and Co. to spend stupid money on Machado over Harper? I get that Machado plays IF, (likely 3B with the Phils) makes consistent hard contact, but I get the feeling the long term effect is better with Harper on this team. Thoughts?
Keith Law: You should be happy with either guy – the team will be better, likely a contender, if they land either one. The fear should be that they land neither despite having the resources to sign one.

JD: Is Wander Franco the Next Huge Thing, or just the buzziest guy at the moment?
Keith Law: He’s a potential star. I wrote in August that he looks like the next teenaged big leaguer.

Johnny LaRue: Where would you place a new franchise outside of the U.S. mainland, were it up to you?
Keith Law: I don’t think such an option exists. As much as I’d love to see a team in Havana, there really isn’t a market right now in Latin America that has the population, the disposable income, enough security for players, and the proximity to the US to work.
Keith Law: San Juan would be the best bet, IMO, but the island’s economy is not in good shape.

Mark: Do you think Miguel Andujar sticks at third?
Keith Law: I think he can work his way to average in time, but I doubt the Yankees give him that much rope.

Anthony: Does Shed Long profile as a regular? What should the Reds do with Gennett, either now or after the season?
Keith Law: He doesn’t. Minus defender at 2b.

Johnny (Woburn): Hey Keith, Happy New Year! Do you see the Red Sox making any significant moves ahead of the season? Also, what kind of player do you see Dalbec becoming? Thanks!
Keith Law: No idea what moves they might be planning. Dalbec has made himself a plus defender and it’s huge raw power, but I don’t think we’ve ever seen a player strike out this often at his age and then become a regular in the majors.

Z: I got in an argument with a family member, curious to hear your thoughts. Do you view someone that is transgender as someone with a mental illness/disorder (gender dysphoria)?
Keith Law: The American Psychiatric Association’s position on this is ‘no.’ Gender dysphoria refers to the emotional distress resulting from the incongruence of one’s perceived gender and one’s biological sex, not from the difference itself. (And, this should be obvious, I also do not view having a mental illness or disorder as a failing any more than I’d view having a physical illness or disorder as one.)

Greg: Worse HoF vote- Harold Baines or Def Leppard? I feel like Leppard at least had a higher peak.
Keith Law: Yeah, plus the RnR Hall has always had a populist bent.

Matt: Is that guy that made the comments about Sosa gonna be held accountable by the Hall of Fame? (Lose his vote)
Keith Law: I doubt it.

Biff: Any recent Philly dining adventures you’d like to share?
Keith Law: I’ve been planning to do a list of my favorites this month since I’ve been here a while. Cheu in Fishtown was tremendous. Also had a great if pricey meal at Fork last weekend.

Patrick: Is it the responsibility of the Tweeter to keep in mind that some readers will be too lazy/biased/clueless to understand sarcasm, or should we just ignore those folks and carry on?
Keith Law: I have enough followers that no matter how I word something, there will be at least a few people who misinterpret it, inadvertently or deliberately.

John o: Your thoughts on the Orioles and Elias staff so far? Hyde?
Keith Law: So far, very good.

Adam: “Then I could travel just by folding a map.” Happy New Year, Keith! If the Phillies don’t land Harper or Machado, how do they salvage the offseason? Do they hold tight and wait for the trade deadline or next year when someone like Arenado is available, or are there other moves to make?
Keith Law: They could follow Amy’s suggestion above of Pollock & Keuchel.

John: I am a loyal Democrat and I don’t like Elizabeth Warren. I think she unlikable for a number of reasons—all of them unrelated to her sex. I’d also point out that most politicians are unlikable for various and legitimate reasons. You believe that any opinion contrary to yours must be linked to some bias of sex or race. Your ID politics keeps you from fully understanding people or the world around you.
Keith Law: I do not believe any such thing. I do believe that the “unlikable” tag applies to women in positions of power far more often than it does to men, and my belief is based on actual research, as opposed to yours.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Recently got into cooking as I moved into a place with my girlfriend. Got the Anova sous vide you rec, food processor, few books, etc. Any go-to meals that you family loves? Preferably something not remarkably hard.
Keith Law: The sous vide chicken thighs on serious eats are a huge hit here.

Arty23: Do you think the Miller deal was a reasonable gamble for the Cardinals or an overpay?
Keith Law: Good gamble for them.

JR: you have about 6 weeks to get in the best shape of your life before spring training starts. Kidding aside, how much are you praying Bartolo signs this winter so there is still one MLBer older than you?
Keith Law: He’s fun. I definitely want him in MLB as long as he can hack it.

waks: Follow-up to the labor union thing. I think you’re absolutely right re: PA aligning publicly with other unions to show power of organized labor. I think movie actors ought to as well – and some have, like John Goodman stumping against Right to Work laws in Missouri this past summer. If unionized athletes and entertainers would take more of a vocal role, it would go a long way towards winning a PR war.
And hey, the MLBPA should want the piano tuners to argue against the MLB luxury tax.
Keith Law: The MLBPA – I think this is true of the NFL too – has long positioned itself as a union apart from others, and it’s easy to see why since they are arguing over a different magnitude of pay than just about every other union. The principles at stake are the same, however, and they’ve relinquished the most obvious source of public support for their efforts as a result.

JD: Kristian Robinson in Dbacks system – anyone being hyped more right now from someone that was not close to top 100 last year?
Keith Law: Wasn’t he my sleeper for them last year? He’s a guy for sure. I love Chisholm, who’s almost certainly going to be on my top 100, but I know scouts who think Robinson will be better.

Erik: Is Black Panther still in the top 10 of English language films for you in 2018 (said it in your review)
Keith Law: It is 14th right now, but four films ahead of it are not in English, so yes.

RSF: Do you worry about the plastic bags used for sous vide?
Keith Law: No because there is no reason to.

James: Any concerns that Tatis Jr makes it to the majors and is limited by contact problems a la Moncada?
Keith Law: No. Different players, different swings.

Chris B.: Chargers were dropped against Reuben Foster, who was roundly demonized two months ago based on accusations. I’m not sure if you commented on Foster, but I know you typically do not wait for the justice process to play out before castigating those accused of domestic violence. Does Foster’s case (or others where the accuser is lying) give you any pause?
Keith Law: I don’t know who that is, but I know cases where the accuser is lying – and, by the way, charges being dropped don’t mean the accuser lied – are quite rare. You are guilty of base rate neglect here.

Buck: Does David Dahl still have the upside he appeared to have as a prospect? Possible All Star if he can just stay healthy?
Keith Law: Yes.

Bob: Aledyms Diaz a cheaper Marwin for Houston?
Keith Law: Cheaper but not as good.

Archie: Would raising the strike zone and going back to a “normal” ball start to get us back to where balls are being put into play, but not always ending up in the seats when they are?
Keith Law: I have some hope it would.

Cash: Who is the nicest mlb player you have ever met?
Keith Law: Tough call – I’ve liked most of the players I’ve interacted with over the years. Archie Bradley comes to mind though. He certainly was the most enthusiastic I’ve ever met.

AZ: Favorite restaurant in Scottsdale?
Keith Law: FnB.

Rich: Is bo bichette a 2b long term?
Keith Law: That is my guess.

Bob: Are you ready to place some NFL playoff parlays at Stanley’s? I’m happy to buy you a beer and show you the ropes (on how to donate your money to the state of DE).
Keith Law: Are they taking bets there now too? good lord.
Keith Law: I don’t gamble, BTW, and I get the sense you don’t either.

Vinny : How do you feel about David Robertson to the Phillies?
Keith Law: Sure.

Adam: Could Acuna be the 2nd best player in MLB this year?
Keith Law: I’ll say that’s unlikely.

Grant: Do you think Joe Ross can be healthy enough to start?
Keith Law: I think he can be very good if healthy, but I know little more about players’ health than the public does (and if I know anything more I usually can’t share it).

Alex: Why do you think the Yankees are spending only 29% of their overall revenue on their roster, the lowest in baseball? Hal clearly wants to drive in more profit, right?
Keith Law: They’re treating the luxury tax threshold like a hard cap, which does what the league wants it to do but kills the union. I’m not disappointed, because I don’t want to see the Yankees simply field a $300 million team, but the idea of team owners pocketing all that cash doesn’t sit well with me either since the players are the product.

Chris: Can Evan White be the starting 1b for the mariners in 2019?
Keith Law: In 2020, yes.

Ryan: I believe you said you started reading Harry Potter to you hold at age 7. I’d like to do he same, do you feel that was a good age for that?
Keith Law: To my daughter? Yes, and yes, it was.

Amy: Random US city that surprised you as a fun travel destination?
Keith Law: Omaha was great for food and I found a cool board game cafe. Louisville is probably my favorite mid-sized city for food + drink + stuff to do.

Jack: Is it possible that the Mets wanted to move on from Kelenic due to non-baseball issues that you either wouldn’t know about or aren’t willing to share?
Keith Law: No. That’s kind of a bullshit question.

JP: Is legalized gambling good, bad, or neutral for MLB?
Keith Law: Gambling is bad for society in general, but it’s going to happen regardless, so it’s better to have it legal and somewhat regulated (and taxed!) than the alternative.

Amy: Have you ever done Cabo food recs?
Keith Law: I’ve never been to Mexico.

waks: hey john who’s a loyal democrat, lemme guess, you’re a middle-aged white guy
Keith Law: Anyone catch that GOP strategist who tweeted about her 87-year-old dad who wouldn’t vote for Elizabeth Warren in 2020? That’s some real valuable advice for Democrats: definitely tailor your candidate to the portion of the electorate with serious misogyny issues and a 50/50 shot of dying before the election.

Rob: Bought sous vide off your rec and I love it. Now looking into espresso, and I read some of your old posts. Any entry rec that won’t put me over $300?
Keith Law: Gaggia has some low-end models in the $220 range that are okay, not quite real espresso but closer than anything else in the price range.

KC: Do you see Gohara having a rebound year?
Keith Law: If healthy, he has real starter stuff and/or huge bullpen upside.

Jeff: Have you gotten past level 12 playing The Mind?
Keith Law: Nope. BTW, his Kennerspiel-winning game The Quacks of Quedlinburg is now out in the US, and it’s really fun, nowhere near as complicated as the title or the award would imply. It’s a simple push-your-luck game where you draw chips from your bag, but as the game progresses you get to add better chips to improve your odds.

Alec : Would you vote for Nikki Haley in a general election?
Keith Law: No, because of her policy positions and associations with Trump.

Tobias: Did Jack Flaherty just have his best season? The guy was a blast to watch, but it felt like the numbers were a little ahead of the stuff. Is he more of a #3 than a #1?
Keith Law: I think he can pitch like that for a while due to his plus-plus command.

JP: Is Durbin Feltman a potential high-leverage reliever in 2019?
Keith Law: Yes.

DC Deac: Read your HOF article and agree completely. I am a fan of WAR and appreciate it but as a writer do you ever consider not leaning on WAR as much because of your audience? I certainly don’t think it should be an end all be all (and I know you don’t) but do you ever worry readers will take that away from an article like that?
Keith Law: It’s a good starting point but you seem to understand my position on it perfectly. What I have found is that if I mention WAR there will be readers who focus on nothing else.

Kool Karl: Have you seen Holmes and Watson or intend to see it? I saw it over the holidays and thought it was a great film with some clever political overtones. I would love to get your opinion.
Keith Law: God no.

Bench : Griffin Canning? ace? Or potential Andrew Miller-ish type guy
Keith Law: If healthy, #2 starter. Strange that everyone was ready to flunk him on draft day but he’s been totally healthy in pro ball for 19 months.

mike sixel: Will Rooker cut his strikeouts enough to be a good MLB player someday? What position do you think he might play, if so? thanks.
Keith Law: 1B most likely, and yes. I think average regular.

Ben: Would you have voted for Edmonds if he were still on the ballot?
Keith Law: Yes.

Rick Sanchez: Do you think Hiura will be a consistent 20+ homer guy in the majors? There has been a pattern of blue chip prospects with elite hitting tools hitting for increased power once they reach the majors (likely attributed to the ball); e.g., Gleyber Torres, Lindor, Betts, etc.
Keith Law: With the current ball, sure. With a regular ball, I would say no.

Dan: Does Jeter Downs strike you as the kind of hitter that LA can convert into the next version of Turner/Muncy/C. Taylor? Possible 2B option for 2020? Thanks!
Keith Law: I have heard nothing but praise for the hit tool and the makeup. He’s definitely a 2b in the long run, not sure if he has that weird power upside you’re talking about, even with the LAD launch angle obsession.

Mike : My biggest worry about Elizabeth Warren as a Democrat isn’t even Elizabeth Warren, it’s that she’ll give Trump an easy target with which to play to his low info voting base and take advantage of the way the electoral college is stacked against high info areas in the first place.
Keith Law: That would be my worry as well, but at the same time, I’d rather see all of the interested, qualified candidates enter the race, and maybe then sort them out.

Andrew: Higher % between Rivera or Jeter for the HoF?
Keith Law: I think both get 99%, with a few omissions.

Chris P: Have you seen A Private War? I thought it was excellent and Pike really stood out in her role…but I feel like nobody knows about it.
Keith Law: Yes, loved it, she deserves a nomination. It is in my top 20. Review here.

Brian: Gavin Lux and Nolan Jones, likely top 100 guys?
Keith Law: Yes, definitely.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you all for the questions and for reading. I’ll try to keep these going all month, although it’s possible I’ll have to skip one while working on the prospect rankings. More details on the new book coming soon. Take care.