Stick to baseball, 5/17/19.

For ESPN+ subscribers this week, my look back at the 2009 draft went up, with a redraft of the first round and a look at the first-round misses. I also wrote a scouting post on some Orioles, Royals, Yankees, and Blue Jays prospects, including the top prospect in each of the first three organizations coming into the year. I held a Klawchat on Thursday.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 5/16/19.

My 2009 redraft piece and note on that draft’s first-round misses are both up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: (Brief delay – I’m just finishing up a call with a scout)
Keith Law: And when I die, put a soundsystem in my hearse. It’s Klawchat.

Joe: “Josh Bell can’t play. He’s not a good defender. He’s a big lump. He has bad agility, bad footwork. He can’t run. Supposedly he’s a big power threat, but he hit 12 home runs at first base. This is not a kid! This is his third year in the big leagues! I don’t think he’s got the ability to get better.” – Anonymous Scout, SI

Has any ever been owned harder?
Keith Law: I’ve said this on twitter – if that scout was real, he should not have a job any more. His evaluations were poor, but worse, he was borderline racist.

Sean: Keith, I have two questions regarding Matt McLain: 1) How far has he fallen as a draft prospect this year? 2) Do you think the Dbacks intentionally drafted him and undercut his asking price to either get him cheaper or not sign him, giving them an extra first round pick in this draft knowing they’d have a huge bonus pool?
Keith Law: He’s not in this draft, so I don’t think it’s fair to assess his draft stock now, when he’s got 25 months until he’s back in the draft. As for 2, no, that is absolutely, 100% inaccurate. They wanted to sign him.

Zach: The Pirates have had a suspect recent history in developing raw power prospects, so I remain cautious of Josh Bell. Should I drop the skepticism? I was burned by Pedro Alvarez!
Keith Law: No, you should buy in – I wrote in March that I thought they could have one or more breakout hitters thanks to the new coach/change in approach, and I think I mentioned Polanco specifically.

PhillyJake: As someone who’s given up red meat, are you a fan of either Impossible or Beyond?
Keith Law: Yes to both.

Bobby: When scouting a prospect, do you change seats between innings to view at bats or pitches from different angles, or is there one “best” angle from which to see everything? Thanks, klaw!
Keith Law: For a pitcher, I try to watch at least two innings behind the plate and at least one up the line from his open side. For a hitter, I just want to go up the line to watch his hands.

BigDaddeh: Are there certain orgs/GMs that get attached to prospect pedigree well after the shine has worn off? It seems like when there is a former top 10 draft pick who washes out and is a minor league FA, the same two or three teams have to take one last look at him.
Keith Law: It’s a good question without a firm answer. You might also say that former top 10 picks were often top 10 picks because of fundamental physical attributes that may still be present when they wash out.

Kevin: Do you think Jarren Duran has the potential to be an everyday player on a 1st division team?
Keith Law: Potential everyday player, yes. I don’t know how to answer that more specifically yet.

Mike G: Should we expect Jordan Balazovic to recieve helium during the midseason reranks? Numbers aside, his stuff looks very impressive.
Keith Law: He barely missed my top 100 this winter, so I think I had him in the right range then. He’ll move up due to so many graduations ahead of him. He could move up more now that he’s pitching at a higher level.

adrags: If one was to scout a stat line they may look at what Nate Pearson is doing and consider him one of the top pitching prospects in the game. In reality, what have you been hearing, and what do you think he is? Can he be an ace at the next level? His per inning numbers this year are off the charts, even when factoring in the level he is pitching at.
Keith Law: Two-time top 100 guy – he already was one of the top pitching prospects in the game, certainly. On the right night you will see two pitches that are 70s. But he’s also being used judiciously, to manage his innings, and that may skew the results too – he threw just two innings his last outing, a planned short start, and so he’s not taking on the same workload (or pacing himself, or turning lineups over three times) that most starter prospects would. Doesn’t make him a worse prospect in any way, just a factor to consider when watching his line scores.

Eduardo: Looking at your 2009 recaps, how surprised are you that Tim Wheeler never got a chance with the Rockies, or anyone for that matter?
Keith Law: If I had had more time, I would have looked into that one. It doesn’t make any sense to me.

Mike: What is Griffin Canning’s perceived ceiling, floor? Is he anything other than a potential mid rotation guy?
Keith Law: Potential #2 if healthy.

Blueberry Johnson: Hey KLaw, you going to be at PAX this year? I’m designing a board game that I hope to have ready by then… Would love to meet you and maybe get your thoughts??
Keith Law: PAX Unplugged, yes. Actually going to Origins for two days, Gen Con, and PAXU.

Ameen: Keith – you mentioned that your contract is soon up for renewal and I wanted to let you know that you’re the sole reason why I pay for the ESPN subscription. Hope that you will be justly rewarded soon. SSS aside, how do you assess Nick Allen’s current standing/future outlook? Could he be one of those prospects who somewhat flies under the radar and ends up being an average major leaguer? Is his ceiling of an average major leaguer a reasonable outlook at this point?
Keith Law: I like that kid quite a bit despite his size. He can run, he can really play short, and when I saw him in March I thought he had enough hand strength to hit for average without power, even as the pitching gets better. He’ll always be dinged for his height and concerns about future strength – the difference between him at the plate and Nick Madrigal is small.

Joe: Which bat profiles better: Riley, Huira, Rodgers?
Keith Law: Hiura.

Greg: Any belief that Austin Riley can handle LF this season?
Keith Law: Don’t see why not but I’d rather see him get more reps at 3b.

Mason: I think we made a mistake by forgetting about Aramis Ademan after last year
Keith Law: He’s hitting .255 (with a lot of BB) while repeating the level, and it’s still a lot of weak groundouts. He’s only 20 so I am in no way burying him, but you’re getting way ahead of yourself.

Jon: When you do your re-draft, are you going straight best (in hindsight) player available? Eg/ would the Braves have taken Brandon Belt with Freeman already in the system?
Keith Law: I don’t consider the teams drafting at all for that.

Amed Rosario : What do you think of me? Seems like the bat is coming around but now defense has been iffy
Keith Law: Cautiously optimistic – early days, small sample, but he’s young and showing real across the board progress. No idea what’s going on with his defense.

Ralph: Do any of the Yankee fill-ins- Urshela, Tauchman, Thairo- project as a MLB regulars or at least solid bench contributors?
Keith Law: The Yankees seem to have some sort of woo with these hitting castoffs they find, but I will say I liked Estrada as a prospect before he got shot, and Urshuela was a prospect once upon a time.

Robby: Did Anthony Kay’s stuff jump or something?
Keith Law: No, stuff was great last year too, but he tired a little bit and was also just back from TJ. Fully recovered now. Very promising.

TC: New Of Monsters and Men album coming soon. Have you heard the first single & have any thoughts on it?
Keith Law: Really liked it.

Arnold: The Giants top pitching prospect, Shaun Anderson, made a good debut the other day. Is he good enough to be a top of the rotation starter or are we looking at #3 or #4 guy?
Keith Law: Back of the rotation.

Plz: Giolito. I want to believe but I’ve been hurt before. Can I embrace it yet?
Keith Law: I’m in, but then again, I’ve probably been his strongest advocate as a prospect.

AGirlHasNoName: Been thinking about the Ben Zobrist news, and how impossible it is to keep stuff private, people seem to love to consume the scandalous stuff, but does that mean someone has to provide it to them?
Keith Law: I don’t think this should be any of our business whatsoever. If a player does something criminal, that’s one thing, but the private lives of players should be off limits.

Jordan: Any chance Corbin Carroll falls to the Mets at #12?
Keith Law: Nonzero chance, but very unlikely IMO.

Andrew: Best way to cook a chicken spatchcock style with what seasonings?
Keith Law: Just salt it heavily, set it on a rack in the sheet pan, and pour water in the pan itself so you don’t set off your smoke alarm.

Dave: When do you expect Baum (UNC) to come off the board? Been the Friday guy for UNC this year, shown good velo with a good chance but kinda lackluster off speed. That’s my .02 couch analysis
Keith Law: Third round … I think? College arms may fly off the board this year because there are so few real first-round onezs.

Mike: Hey Keith, after viewing your top prospects for the upcoming MLB draft I noticed that Vanderbilt Ace Drake Fellows was not listed. Where would you rank him/ what round(s) (if any) would be the range for him?
Keith Law: Third to fifth rounds.

Dave: What makes the time travel in Doctor Who tolerable if it’s a dealbreaker for you going to see Endgame? Asking as a fan of both
Keith Law: It’s baked into the premise of Doctor Who. It was tacked on as a plot device in Endgame.
Keith Law: Doctor Who is a time traveler by definition. Same as Connie Willis’ time travel novels – they are inherent to the stories.

Mike: How high are you on the bat of Dodgers Will Smith?
Keith Law: Above average regular if not more. I think the power he showed last year is real, the result of a tangible swing change.

JG: That Balazovic pick of yours is looking good. Kis has been nearly lights out
Keith Law: No, some guy on twitter told me I’m never right about anything.

Andrew: Does Triston Casas really have 70/80 raw power?
Keith Law: Not what I saw form him in HS.

Joe: What do you make of Christian Walker? I thought he was more of a AAAA type player going into this season and so far he has done way more than I expected. The .380 BABIP and 30% strikeout rate have me questioning how sustainable it is though.
Keith Law: It’s not sustainable.

Mark: I suffer from depression and anxiety and I have a big problem with public speaking. Any ways to overcome this?
Keith Law: I’m not a therapist, and that’s something you should discuss with yours … but I can speak to my own experience, that I have found public speaking became easier with practice, and that I still experience a lot of anxiety right before starting that fades quickly once I’m in front of the crowd.

Ethan: Just a comment . . . I have learned a ton about baseball and other things from you. And while I don’t always agree with your stance(s) (I am a strong Christian), I will say that I am most impressed with you as a dad and your care for your daughter, especially as it is clear the high priority she is in your life. I have an 11 y/o daughter dealing for the first time with some mental health stuff, and I think we need more dads like you. Thanks!
Keith Law: Good luck to you and your daughter – it sounds like you’re on top of it, and getting her real medical help now could avoid a lot of problems for her in her later teen years.

Tom: Hey Keith, it seems like the Orioles actually have some pitching talent in the minors.. Rodriguez, Hall, Kremer, Knight, Lowther, Akin, even Harvey. Is that reason to be optimistic, or just wishful thinking?
Keith Law: I’ll see Hall tonight, and have a post up on him, Kremer, Sedlock, and Bishop tomorrow or this weekend. I don’t think all of those guys are starters, but they have some bulk pitching on the way.

Keith: Does Moncada being in the 99th percentile for exit velocity make you believe his production is sustainable? 3-4 WAR season?
Keith Law: I believe his ability to make hard contact is real, and that he’ll continue to strike out at a rate that makes a WAR higher than that unlikely.

Andrew: Any 80 raw power guys in this year’s draft like Nolan Gorman was last year? How about 70-75 raw power guys? Your tools assessments on draft prospects is what helped me determine Nolan Gorman should be ahead of Casey Mize who’s been a stud.
Keith Law: I wouldn’t put Gorman over Mize, FWIW. Hinds has 80 raw, and swings and misses more than Gorman. Bishop probably has 70+ raw. Bleday too.

ck: First round in 2009 looks historically bad in retrospect. Can you think of any worse?
Keith Law: 2000 is the gold standard for bad first rounds, I think.

Josh Nelson: Hey Keith. Andrew Vaughn fits what the profile of who the White Sox have drafted since Nick Hostetler took over. How likely do you think they go in a different direction by selecting CJ Abrams?
Keith Law: At this point, I don’t have enough information to answer that other than to say I believe they are looking at both players, and aware that Rutschman could slip to them.

John Farrell: Can a guy who swings and misses as much as Chavis project out positively? Also, do you think he can stay at 2B longer-term?
Keith Law: 2b would really surprise me.

Eric: From a fair labor stand point, what’s the best replacement to a draft? Is there a way to do it that protects labor and keeps things competitive to avoid too much going to one team? Or am I overstating competition issues?
Keith Law: I don’t care much if at all about competition issues – I want players to be paid what they’re worth, not what some artificial regime says they can get. League officials and owners have so successfully brainwashed fans (not you specifically) into believing that drafts are necessarily to maintain competitive balance that fans respond negatively to discussions of how players like Zion W are exploited by drafts, and forget that MLB instituted its draft to stop the “bonus baby” phenomenon of the late 1950s/early 60s.

Mom’s spaghetti: Assessments of Yordan Alverez vary…what do you think of him? Can he at least hit…and I think he really needs to HIT to be successful, right? Any prospect of him playing 1B at all or just OF?
Keith Law: Well below average in LF or 1b. Probably a DH ideally. Should hit.
Keith Law: So your second point, that he needs to hit more to be valuable relative to his position, is accurate.

Brandon: Good to see Mitchell White back and healthy this season. Can you see him getting starts in LA this year if he keeps this up?
Keith Law: Yes, or in relief.

Redefined racism?: Hey Klaw, not trying to troll, but … can you explain how Anonymous Scout up top is “borderline racist”? I keep rereading it and I don’t see it. Thanks.
Keith Law: Read the whole SI piece. I didn’t say those specific comments were racist.

Huge KLaw Fan: Hi Kieth, do you think that you rate Hiura higher than the others as some sort of white guilt? Like you said in the Bell question, that guy was definitely racist towards Bell. But do you think you may go too far the other way and subconsciously try to be not-racist and like Hiura more than you should? Thanks! I second only having insider because of you.
Keith Law: This would be a great argument if Hiura were white, which he is not.
Keith Law: Also, j/k, it’s a stupid fucking argument.

Matthew: Do minor league results ever drive prospect tools grades? Or are those always based directly on scouting observations?
Keith Law: No, results do not determine tools, ever.

ck: When do you sous vide as opposed to any other cooking method?
Keith Law: When a precise internal temperature is paramount, or when I want to cook something a long time at a low temperature without using the oven.

Butts: Feasible for the White Sox be able to grab Abrams at a savings and float a mid 1st round talent to 45?
Keith Law: Probably not. Abrams’ floor is pick 6 or so.

Amari: Is Lodolo’s stock enhanced by simply being the best arm in a pitching-weak draft class? 1st round sure, but doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who would’ve gone top 10 in years past
Keith Law: I think so. I think the industry would disagree.

j: Are you surprised that Anthony Seigler isn’t on a full-season team? Figured a player with his skills would have broken camp with the Yanks low-A club Charleston
Keith Law: He’s been hurt.

Ryan: Corbin Carroll reminds me a lot of Alek Thomas. Could you please compare and contrast them? Thank you!
Keith Law: Similar but Carroll has more pop.

Steve: In your updated top 50, you didnt have Austin Riley. Other than your question about his bat speed, why did you keep him out of the top 50?
Keith Law: I’m not sure what list you mean; the only updated top 50 I’ve posted recently was for the draft.

Lee: It’s pretty obvious that our dear leader would be looking at prison time right now if he weren’t president. Should Congress do the right/moral thing and impeach? Or should they hold off on the chance that it may lead to voter backlash and actually lead to 4 more years of this buffoon? A very difficult choice IMO
Keith Law: I don’t think any Congress should delay impeachment for political expediency. If you think an elected official has committed some crime worthy of impeachment, then you should do something about it.

mike sixel: I don’t think I’ve ever seen your thoughts…..do you like Dr. Who?
Keith Law: I’m a fan through two seasons at least.

Bill: Jose Israel Garcia was a near miss guy for you. Had a good 2nd half in warmer weather and seems to be maintaining that this season. Is he a guy worth monitoring?
Keith Law: Only 18 games so far, so tiny sample, but yes, a guy worth monitoring. Chance for high contact with good defense.

Sean: Ketel Marte is showing legitimate raw power from both sides of the plate, though he still has issues hitting enough fly balls to take it to the next level. Are you buying on him at 25 years old?
Keith Law: He was on my breakouts list for 2018. I have a bad habit of being a year early on those.

Kevin: Do you think Devers can have a 300/420/550 slashline either this year or in the near future?
Keith Law: That’s MVP level … I love the kid, believe fully in his bat, but that seems like a best case scenario and is way out of reach for 2019.

Greg: Whens the next mock?
Keith Law: I think the day after Memorial Day. Big Board next week, ACC blog post, then mock.

Jordan: Does Jackson Rutledge have serious ace potential?
Keith Law: No.

Conine: I’m going to Marlin’s Park for the first time this weekend. Anything worth checking out while I’m there?
Keith Law: Lol no.

Dr. Bob: You talk about watching players from different angles. HS shouldn’t be a problem, but do you ever run into problems at colleges or minor league parks? Or do they accommodate scouts?
Keith Law: Usually fine – high schools are actually more of a problem because sometimes you can’t get down one or both lines. That’s also an issue at Duke – I won’t scout a pitcher there because of it.

silvpak: jeren kendall is now 23 and still at A ball, with no perceptible improvement in his approach at the plate, other than walking more (which doesn’t really matter, given he’s hitting under .200). two and a half years in – was this a wasted pick?
Keith Law: It was a decent gamble that isn’t working out.

Garrett: What are you hearing on Josh Lowe? Anything moving the needle there?
Keith Law: Great athlete, power/speed combo, hitting .226 with lots of swing and miss so no, needle is steady.

addoeh: Any new Chicago eats from scouting Priester?
Keith Law: Only one: My daughter tagged along and she wanted to try deep dish, so we went to Pequod for lunch before the game, and it was … well, she loved it.

Dave: If Trout’s the best player of the last 50 years… does that mean you think Bonds’s late-career surge should be discounted? Bonds averaged 11 WAR in his late-30’s prime.
Keith Law: Bonds had 50.3 WAR through his age-27 season. Trout will clear 70.

Often Sad: How do you separate seemingly good people from their horrible opinions? This weekend, my father-in law and his sister were really lobbing it back and forth with horrible takes, such as “AOC is the next Hitler, I’m serious,” and constant babble about “Fucking Democrats” ruining the country, even though I’m not sure an actual point was made. These are the people in my life, like it or not, and are what I think good people, but sometimes it’s hard to see that.
Keith Law: Sorry to hear that, but my only solution is to cut those people out of my life.

Joe: Fair to be a bit disappointed in Gleyber Torres so far? I was expecting better plate disciple than he has shown. Outside of games against Baltimore, he hasn’t played well.
Keith Law: He’s 22 with a 118 wRC+ … I don’t understand why you’d be disappointed in that.

Bob Pollard: How’s Wander Franco looking this year? Still #1 prospect-y?
Keith Law: He is the #1 prospect in the minors right now.

Jameson: Do you tend to grade trades purely on the factors at the time, or is hindsight a fair way to grade trades?
Keith Law: We can discuss whether a trade worked out for one side, but it is not fair to criticize a trade based on factors that no one could have known at the time of the deal.

Hinkie: WVU LHP Nick Snyder isn’t getting much attention, but is having a great junior season. What do you know about him, and how can he go in the draft?
Keith Law: Not a draft prospect, sorry.

Josh: What is your guess onthe root cause of the Phillies recent draft woes? Klentak has done a fantastic job, overdelivering on this re-build. Is this more a scouting issue or driven by guidance from ownership?
Keith Law: I don’t know – and BTW, it’s really the first round. They’ve botched several first-round picks, at least the three outfielders (Randolph, Moniak at 1, Haseley). Whether that is people or process I do not know.

Michael: Did the Angels know what they had in Trout that summer?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jack: Even if the consensus is that Zack Collins can’t catch at a major league level, is there a chance the Sox call him up this year and let him try anyway?
Keith Law: There’s some risk to doing that with a catcher that isn’t present at other positions – viz. that it will adversely affect the pitchers he’s catching. So I think not.

Mike: Keith, with your travels & your love of coffee, do you ever stop for a quick cup somewhere or always coffee houses? Any favorite quick stops?
Keith Law: No, nothing I would say I like.

wickethewok: Is this the power that Josh Bell was originally projected for or just an early season fluke?
Keith Law: This is the power I projected for him. Whether it’s real or a fluke is another question … I think it’s real, that the Pirates as a whole are encouraging hitters to drive the ball more even at some cost of contact.

Huh?: Is there any logical point that could be made to call Cortez the next Hitler? Is one of her main proposals genocide?
Keith Law: This is from the same people who think the Nazis were socialist because they used the word in their party’s name (they were textbook fascists, not socialists).

J: What is your favorite guitar riff?
Keith Law: The opening riff to Crazy Train is absolutely brilliant, and fun to play; Rhoads’ classical background showed better on that riff than anywhere else. Nothing in music makes me sadder than to think of the songwriting we lost when he died.

Ron: HI Keith- Buxton is healthy this year. Just sayin’! He looks so much more relaxed this year, even only if it is a SSS. His arm is as good as his speed and if he just hits .250-270, he is a star. There is some serious pop in that bat when he squares one.
Keith Law: I thought he was a star in 2017, then he was hurt most of last year, and now he’s healthy and what do you know, he’s a star again.

Michael: Do you ever scout a player who looks the part including the swing and bat speed, but just doesn’t put up numbers? I’m thinking Josh Vitters
Keith Law: Vitters is often my go-to example for this – beautiful swing, ton of power, and in the games he could never figure out when to swing and when to take.

OC Joe: What’s the ceiling for Soroka if he stays healthy? His ERA (duh) won’t be this low all season, but the only real negative in this SSS is a higher than expected walk total
Keith Law: Health is the #1 concern, obviously. Second is whether he can continue to dominate LHB as he has, despite not really using his CH and a low arm slot. If those stay true, #2 starter for me.

Joe: Keith, why do some minor league games start so early during the week, like at 9:30 or 10?
Keith Law: Schoolkids’ special. I love those games – I can go to one and be home in time to pick my daughter up from the bus.

James: Why do prospects generally lack a quality changeup? Hard pitch to master, or less sexy to have than a slider or curve?
Keith Law: In high school, especially, they almost never need one – the axiom is that, when you throw 95, throwing a HS hitter a changeup instead of your fastball is doing him a favor.

Andy: Do teams have portable Trackman things? Like can they go a couple hours early and set things up in a high school stadium to get spin rate on a high school pitcher in game?
Keith Law: Yes. Rapsodo makes a portable device teams use for some of those measurements.

Jonas: Keith, is Urshela’s performance sustainable? And at this point, is Luke Voit for real?
Keith Law: I think Voit is for real, given the details we have now (Lindsey Adler wrote about it for the Athletic) on changes to his swing and approach. Also, Yankee woo. I’m telling you.

Clifton Law : So Keith, based on your earlier Urshela response, you think there is something extra to putting on the pinstripes
Keith Law: I actually think they have some developmental ideas that haven’t generally spread out to other teams, yet, and that they’ve taken very good advantage of this temporary edge.

Harold: I, for one, can’t wait until the next election when a Democrat can be elected and the death in the streets, innocent people being locked up for not being white supremacists, and puppy kicking will finally end.
Keith Law: It’s really stupid to send me this shit from your work computer, buddy.

La Pantera: Do you think the Rodon, Jones, Dunning and Kopech injuries should make the White Sox reconsider their organizational pitching approach, more than an annual self-scouting review would do? Could this just be normal for clubs and freak occurrence that it’s happening to higher profile players for the Sox?
Keith Law: Nah. Rodon had a tough delivery and was badly overused in college, but also had one of the best sliders in amateur history. Kopech wasn’t even in their system all that long and almost nobody who throws that hard (other than Verlander?) can maintain it for long without elbow trouble. Bad set of coincidences.

Joe: Zac Gallen a potential Ace?
Keith Law: No.

Erik: you stated in your re-draft post that Trout would have went to the Yankees at pick 25 but wouldn’t it have been likely that the Angels would have snagged him at 24 instead of 25
Keith Law: If you’re assuming the Yankees kept that pick at 25, you should also assume the Mets kept pick 24.

Dan: It’s 2019 and some Boston sports media and plenty of fans were actually complaining that Cora took out Chris Sale when he did (108 pitches) because he could have gone for 20 strikeouts. Ntm, his injury issues the last two years.
Keith Law: I’m shocked (not shocked).

Bob: How would you rate Daniel Lynch’s secondary pitches?
Keith Law: Will write up on Friday. I am all in, though.

Tyler: Who has a higher ceiling: Fried or Soroka?
Keith Law: Fried.

addoeh: At least your daughter liked Pequods. I’ve probably recommended it a time or two here.
Keith Law: It’s not that it was bad – I just don’t like that style of pizza.

PD: Pretty big assumption that person actually has a job.
Keith Law: Oh I know exactly where he works now. And he’s been insulting me for a few weeks here.

Mike: At this point, do you think Drew Rasmussen can still start? The stuff is great, but the injury history still making me think he’s better off in the bullpen.
Keith Law: Two time TJ guy … I wouldn’t even chance it.

Mom’s spaghetti: What do the Astros do with Fisher, Tucker, Alvarez, and to a lesser extent Reed (seem to have ruined him)? Fisher almost has to be in a trade this summer but does he have enough value? Also, would you sell high on Alvarez? His stock can’t get higher!
Keith Law: Tucker and Alvarez would have some real trade value now; the others don’t seem to have much at all. I know they shopped Fisher in bigger deals this winter but he wasn’t enough to lead a package.

wickethewok: If the the 2009 Nationals were given Storen’s stats from 2010-2015, would they still make the pick? I know by most reasonable measures, including yours, he is a bust, but was this what the Nationals expected?
Keith Law: I didn’t call him a bust – that was an editor’s decision – and it’s not possible to separate the pick from the fact that it was unprotected and they had to have a predraft deal in place. (Of course, Trout would have signed for slot there, no question.)

Ozzie Albies: Have I ever seen a pitch I don’t like?
Keith Law: Pitch, or contract offer?

addoeh: What are the odds Keuchel, and perhaps Kimbrel, get close to their original asking price once the draft pick compensation goes away after the draft?
Keith Law: Keuchel more likely. Kimbrel I think gets one-year offers.

JR: Should the Mets aggressively be trying to give Conforto one of those extensions that are all the rage these days? I would.
Keith Law: I would too. Not sure he’d take one, but worth trying.

Dave: Sorry I should have been more specific: I was assuming Trout wouldn’t suddenly improve markedly in his late 30’s for, y’know, whatever reason. If he does, no argument, but I was wondering if you were assuming a similar path, or discounting Bonds, or really thought Trout was so much better young that he could reach 162 with a normal aging pattern. I’ll take your answer as meaning the latter.
Keith Law: I don’t think we can ever predict anyone to have Bonds’ aging pattern, but if there were a player alive today whom you might predict to have it, isn’t it Trout? Plus he might enter his 30s with a substantial WAR ‘lead.’

Sean: Gonsolin ceiling?
Keith Law: He and Balazovic were both on this list of : prospects who just missed my top 100.

AJ: Balazovic! Great call on your part. Do you see him as an above average starter and is it crazy to think we could see him before the end of 2020?
Keith Law: Above average starter but not in the majors before 2021.

Dr. Bob: One unknown factor in the redraft discussion is how a team may have mishandled a player’s development. It is possible that some ‘busts’ might have been solid major league regulars given a different course of development, maybe with a different team, right?
Keith Law: Absolutely. I wonder if Ackley’s career is different if he doesn’t go right to AA.

Zander: Hey Keith – any recent non-fiction recommendations?
Keith Law: Bad Blood, on the Theranos scandal.

Bobby: Best way to cope with death? Burying a family member tomorrow and it’s been rough.
Keith Law: See a counselor if you can. I don’t know any good way to cope, but I know lots of bad ways and it’s important to try not to fall into those traps. I’m very sorry for your loss.

Thornton Mellon: You ever read the Three Body Problem?
Keith Law: Yep, three years ago: my review.

Drew: I’m having trouble cutting activities out of my life that I’m pretty sure I don’t actually like or enjoy, but just kind of doing them out of obligation or fear of change; any opinions on how to stop?
Keith Law: Got me wondering what you might mean, but in the absence of that information, what about simply prioritizing other activities you do like or enjoy, so that the choice goes from “not doing X” to “doing something instead of X?”

Thornton Mellon: Is the new Tommy La Stella legit? You really see a 4-5 WAR player here?
Keith Law: It seems incredibly hard to believe, given the absence of any such power in his track record, but there’s also nothing obviously fluky in his numbers (other than the sample size).

alex: You mentioned the possiblity of the O’s not drafting Adley R. to save money on tougher signs. Doesn’t AZ have a lot of pool money and picks before the Os 2nd pick to scoop up these folks? Any candidates who are worthy tough signs?
Keith Law: Lots of HS guys who’d be worth it but the O’s can’t set their hearts on any one guy, because of Arizona specifically.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – more phone work to do before the top 100, plus another ESPN project for draft week that needs my attention. Thank you all, as always, for all of your questions. I don’t know my exact schedule next week, other than that I’m planning to hit the ACC tournament briefly – I don’t think I’ll be revisiting the SEC tournament, held in Alabama, any time soon after the law they just passed – and may not be home for a Thursday chat. I’ll keep everyone posted on social media, though. Thanks again.

Reef.

Emerson Matsuuchi has come on the gaming scene with a bang the last couple of years thanks to the trilogy of games under the Century banner, beginning with Century Spice Road, which is – and this is generally a compliment – a great game to try if you like Splendor. In between the release of Spice Road and the second Century game, Eastern Wonders, he also released a very light pattern-matching game called Reef, which is a fun trifle of a game that I think is a great game to play with younger kids or folks entirely new to gaming.

Reef’s setup and components are themselves quite simple. The game comes with coral pieces in four colors, and you use a fixed number depending on how many players are playing. Each player has a 4×4 board, and begins with one coral piece of each color, arranging the pieces as they wish on the four central spaces. There’s a deck of cards with two coral symbols on top and some sort of pattern on the bottom that you’ll try to match. You begin the game with two cards, dealt to you at random, and then there are three cards out on display.

On each turn, you may take a card from the center of the table, or play a card from your hand. If you play a card, you execute two steps: You take and place the two coral pieces shown on top, and then you can score if anything on your board matches the pattern shown on the bottom. You can stack coral pieces, but the only color on a stack that matters for matching purposes is the one on top – so you look at your board from the top down to determine if you’ve matched the pattern. Regular patterns can include anywhere from one to four spaces, and may require you to have one or more stacks of specific heights. For example, it might require you to have two stacks, diagonally adjacent to each other, of height two with purple coral on top. You can score a pattern multiple times, but each stack can only contribute to one pattern per turn. Although you could potentially score more for certain cards, across many plays we’ve found it’s extremely rare to score more than ten points for any of these cards. (I believe my daughter did so once, and that’s it so far.) There are a few special pattern cards that can score quite a bit more – they give you two points for each stack topped by color X adjacent to your tallest stack of color Y, which can get you up to 16 points (four orthogonally adjacent spaces, four diagonally adjacent spaces).

The cards are well-calibrated so that the colors shown on the top don’t contribute to the pattern on the bottom, which means few if any cards beyond the special pattern cards are objectively more valuable than the rest. There’s a bit of strategy involved in collecting cards that will allow you to build toward a pattern on a card you already have while also letting you score something for the patterns on the new cards, but you’re limited to the three shown on the table and those will often be less than helpful. (You can take the top card from the deck in a blind draw, but have to place one or more point tokens on the lowest-valued card on the market, which is probably a terrible move.) With a hand limit of four, you can’t do too much long-term planning, and you’ll regularly have to change your strategy because the cards don’t cooperate or an opponent took the card you wanted.

The game ends when the supply of any color of coral is exhausted or, less likely, the deck of cards is exhausted. At game-end, each player can then score every pattern on cards in their hand, but only once apiece, so saving cards to try to score more points has a bit of risk involved.

That’s all there is to Reef – if anything, it’s simpler than my very detailed explanation implies – and the game doesn’t vary in practice with the number of players. It plays in a half hour or so, with moves very short and your decisions quite limited in practice; you can put your two new coral pieces on any of the sixteen board spaces, but most of those will make no sense at any given time. The flip side is that the game itself is shallow, pun slightly intended; I don’t see any way to play this with a long-term strategy, so you’re just drifting along with the current, playing the best cards that become available to you. Even holding two or three high-value cards doesn’t make much sense because you can usually score those patterns no more than twice and you need to churn your cards to get the coral pieces you need.

Reef’s pattern-matching should work for pretty young kids – it’s color and number matching, and there is no text reading required whatsoever – with turns short enough to keep them occupied, and stacking the coral pieces is oddly satisfying. Each color has a unique shape as well in case any players are unable to distinguish certain colors. As a lightweight, filler game you can teach and play quickly, Reef works, but I don’t think it’s going to be in heavy rotation for us.

Good Omens.

I’m a definite fan of Neil Gaiman’s work, having loved American Gods and also enjoyed Anansi Boys and The Graveyard Book, but have yet to get into any of Terry Pratchett’s output, including his famous and very popular Discworld series. With amazon about to release its adaptation of their joint novel Good Omens on May 31st, I picked up the novel a few weeks ago to prepare myself for the impending apocalypse. For a book written by two authors, it’s remarkably fluid and consistent, and, as you might expect given their reputations, it’s quite funny.

As the marketing campaign for the series has probably told you, the end of the world is nigh and someone has misplaced the Antichrist – more specifically, the forces of good and evil have discovered that they’ve lost track of the infant spawn of Satan, who was switched at birth with another baby thirteen years previously in a swap that went awry without anyone noticing. The ads sell the book a bit short, at least, as there’s much more going on than that particular mix-up; the book focuses far more on the angel Aziraphale and the demon Crowley, who turn this book into an unlikely buddy comedy as they try to get the eschaton back on track even as events spiral beyond their control and, in Crowley’s case, various other agents of the devil come after him for possibly screwing up the apocalypse.

The Antichrist, meanwhile, grows up as Adam in an unsuspecting family, and gathers a few friends around him in a little gang of mischief-makers called “Them” by the adults in their community, a group of four mirrored later in the book by the appearance of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (although Pestilence has been replaced, a gag I won’t ruin here). The novel’s subtitle refers to an old book of prophecies by a witch named Agnes Nutter, the only truly accurate such book ever published, which of course means it has been summarily ignored throughout history – but one of her descendants arrives in the novel with an annotated copy and index cards referring to specific prophecies with attempted interpretations. There’s a modern-day witchfinder general (not this one), and his helper, Nelson Pulsifer, no relation to Bill, and the witchfinder’s dingbat landlord, a self-proclaimed medium (and, naturally, a fake). The narrative bounces around these different threads as they all converge, for whatever reason, on Tadfield, which is to be the epicenter of the eschaton.

Despite the quasi-religious underpinnings of the book, its best aspect by far is the interplay between Aziraphale and Crowley, who sit on opposite sides of the dualistic divide but appear to be longtime friends who, in this case at least, share a common interest in moving the plot along while encountering many obstacles, mostly of the physical variety. The book is substantially funnier when they’re on its pages, and, while never boring without them, it definitely lags a bit when neither of them is involved in the action. Their banter is snappier, and Gaiman and Pratchett clearly had more fun writing these characters and twisting their personae so that they appear to be acting on the ‘wrong’ sides of the good/evil dichotomy. There are various running gags around these two characters, notably around Crowley’s car, that work extremely well and, like any good running joke, get funnier the more they appear.

For a light farce like Good Omens, sticking the landing is helpful but not quite mandatory; the point is to enjoy the ride, and if the resolution is satisfying, so much the better. Gaiman and Pratchett do stick the landing, however, especially since we know from the start of the book the world isn’t actually going to end – I mean, mild spoiler, I guess, but it’s obviously not that sort of book – and they have to write themselves out of that predicament. It’s a well-crafted ending that doesn’t feel cheap or contrived; I didn’t predict it but after seeing the resolution I could see in hindsight how the authors had set it up. Given how well Good Omens delivers its laughs – and I laughed a lot – a solid ending feels like a bit of a bonus. Now I can’t wait for the TV series to arrive.

Next up: I bailed on James Kelman’s Booker Prize-winning novel How Late It Was, How Late after about 80 pages and around 200 uses of the c-word, so I’ve moved on to Haruki Murakami’s latest novel, Killing Commendatore.

Stick to baseball, 5/11/19.

I had two ESPN+ posts this week, my first mock draft of 2019 and a draft scouting post on some prospects at Vanderbilt and Louisville. I also held a Klawchat on Thursday.

At Paste, I reviewed Noctiluca, a fun, light, dice-drafting game from the designer of Raiders of the North Sea. My daughter and I have really enjoyed this one.

Before I get to the regular links, here’s a GoFundMe that might be of interest to many of you. Luis Vasquez, a former Mets farmhand, developed bone cancer in his leg last year; he has survived it, but surgery to replace his knee and tibia has probably ended his career. Jen Wolf, who worked with Luis while she was with the Mets the last few years, has set up a GoFundMe page to help Vasquez move into a safer house in the Dominican Republic, as his family’s current home is falling apart and lacks electricity or indoor plumbing.

And now, the links…

Klawchat 5/9/19.

My first mock draft for 2019 went up on Monday, and I have a blog post up on JJ Bleday and other Vandy/Louisville prospects.

Keith Law: Go and run yourself a million miles. Klawchat.

Trevor: Casey Mize is the best college pitching prospect since __________?
Keith Law: Gerrit Cole.

Bob: Forest Whitley has been mediocre in his short starts and terrible in his relief appearances, so bad he’s not even building up IP. Whatever the Astros plan, it doesn’t seem to be working on any level. What would you suggest?
Keith Law: I don’t draw that conclusion. It’s five appearances, characterized mostly by more home runs – and they’re using the MLB ball in AAA. Unless he’s hurt I’m unconcerned. Steady on.

Mark: In what order would you place these, Shake Shack,5 guys,In N Out ?
Keith Law: I no longer eat beef, so this is based on my memories from beyond two years ago – Shake Shack > In n Out > Five Guys.

Trevor: At what point can an umpire call a balk/ball on a pitcher for stopping mid windup with no one on base? Ryu did it multiple times (4-5) in his last start where it got to the point of annoying. Would the ump call it if Inciarte squared around it bunt and then Ryu stopped?
Keith Law: It’s not a balk if there’s no one on, right?

addoeh: I saw recently that you said weren’t a fan of Moby Dick. I have to say, though, I think that it is some of John Bonham’s best work.
Keith Law: Agreed. Melville got better treatment than he deserved.

Aaron C.: SSS *and* zero gravity home field *and* “scouting the stat line” notwithstanding; I am ALL IN on Jorge Mateo. Am I a crackpot?
Keith Law: Not a crackpot, but 1) the power definitely isn’t real and 2) he’s repeating triple-A, just now in a better ballpark. But he also has long had real ability, especially his speed, that we can’t ignore.

Kyle: People seem to be making a big deal about you taking Yordan out of your top 100 based on the season he is having. Even without much defensive value, the bat seems quite impactful. Do you want a redo yet?
Keith Law: No, I don’t, and that’s really the wrong way to ask that question.

Elton: Is Alejandro Kirk a name to monitor? Bat seems special and particularly intriguing at catcher.
Keith Law: Yes, he was in my Toronto org writeup as a real prospect, and who doesn’t love a fat catcher? I’m all in on the fat catchers.

Nick: Daniel Norris is finally getting regular starts. What are your thoughts on how he’s looked so far? Do you think he can stay in the rotation long-term throwing this many curveballs?
Keith Law: Fangraphs only has him throwing the curveball 6% of the time, the lowest rate of his four pitches, so I’m not sure if you’re just conflating that and the slider or if you mean something else. I do think he has to be offspeed-heavy, maybe more so than he has been, because his secondary stuff is good but his fastball is below-average now. I also think he has the offspeed weapons and the aptitude to be an average or better starter even averaging just 90 mph.

Bookz: Keith, big fan of your fiction recommendations and I wanted to pass one back. Based on your “Swamplandia” recommendation, I looked for similar authors and hit on Amy Bloom’s “Lucky Us.” Strong authorial voice, with a bit less of Russell’s sense of impending dread. Great read!
Keith Law: Thanks! I’ll add it to the endless list.

Manny: If you were KC, would you take Witt Jr, Vaughn, Bleday, or Abrams at 1.2?
Keith Law: When I rank players, that’s my ‘board.’ So my #1, Rutschman, is gone in your scenario, and then I’d take my #2, Vaughn.

Nomah: I know he’s still really young…but is this kind of what Mazara is? Everyone says they see more potential in him. What might it take to bring it out? Different hitting coach/approach? Change of scenery (even though the ball jumps out of his current park)?
Keith Law: He’s still putting the ball on the ground too often, and not getting deep enough into counts. I don’t know what will bring that out but I am positive the Rangers have tried to get him to make adjustments along those lines.

Ben: When young hitters come up, struggle, and then need to “make adjustments,” what does that even mean? It seems like the easy answer for fans to grasp is that they need to be more selective and not swing at sliders down and away. There has to be more going on, but as a fan we rarely hear what those “adjustments” actually are. Are there common things young players need to do, or is it too individualized?
Keith Law: Hah, there’s the phrase in question. It can be as simple as recognizing that pitchers will attack the hitter in a certain way because he’s shown some vulnerability, and then changing his approach so he’s not chasing whatever pitch(es) he’s getting. It can be more significant, like mechanical changes, from adding a trigger to changing the stride or setup to adjusting hand positions. It’s a catch-all term.

Dana: Domingo German seems to have figured out how to throw strikes. Still a reliever for you?
Keith Law: His command/control was never the reason I thought he’d end up in relief.

bryan: Hi Keith – I know that you had projected a college bat to the A’s in your first mock draft. Do you think that they could still look to target high ceiling players like Hampton, Toglia and Paris in the first couple of rounds? Thanks and keep up the great work.
Keith Law: Toglia’s not a high-ceiling guy but I do not believe they’re definitely taking a college bat. They could certainly go after some ceiling; I did not hear them on Hampton at all, FWIW.

Griz: Greatly enjoy your work. Any thoughts on the board game, “Planet”? Just heard of it and wondered if you’ve played it
Keith Law: On my list for the summer. Blue Orange did offer me a review copy in advance of Earth Day but I couldn’t get to it in time for that with other games I’d already lined up to review. Hoping I’ll get to Planet before GenCon.

Tyson: What do you think about Joe Ross? Starter? If so, could he be a trade piece for a solid BP arm to a team that isn’t “win now” and could let him develop as a starter?
Keith Law: Starter if he can stay healthy. That’s been an issue since he signed, though.

Patrick: Keith, are there certain college stadiums you enjoy visiting more than others? Ones that have a great view/ambience/sightlines, etc?
Keith Law: It’s more about the cities than the ballparks. I love going to Nashville, Louisville, Oklahoma City, so any scouting trip that gets me to places like those works for me.

Patrick: Hey Keith, one thought from last week leads to this week’s question. On your dislike for superhero movie violence, does that also extend to horror films? I struggle with both of those tropes, and wonder if you view them through the same lens?
Keith Law: Even more so. I watch almost no horror films, and if there’s gore I’m just out. The idea of finding pleasure in watching even fictional depictions of graphic violence is abhorrent to me. I’ve said this before, but if you just arrested everyone who goes to see torture-porn films like Hostel on opening nights, you’d probably grab half the future serial killers in the country.
Keith Law: (I don’t think the films make people into killers, btw.)

Luke: Does Theo keeping in contact with Russell’s ex-wife do anything for you? If the victim appears to be accepting of Addison returning (meaning, hopefully he’s been sincere and taken steps to better himself), does that make this awful situation any less heavy?
Keith Law: Nothing will matter until Russell takes some actual responsibility here instead of talking about this as a “challenge” for him to overcome.

SGz: What do you see as the biggest benefit of seeing a player live versus tape?
Keith Law: Additional angles, and seeing the ‘small’ things that a player does – setting up before plays, watching him warm up, etc.

Clark: Is people flipping out over the OK sign proof that we do indeed live in clownworld?
Keith Law: Calling it “the OK sign” when it has gone from dumb internet joke to actual symbol used by white nationalists might make you the clown, Clark.

Matty K : Re: Moncada. Last year his strikeouts were in large part due to taking called third strikes on “border line pitches” (I.e. pitches within 1 inch or less of the zone). He led baseball with 60, trout was next with 41. (1) curious if this issue is more “fixable” than pure swing and miss issues (2) also when does the detriment in the drop in walk rate overshadow the benefits of less strikeouts from a more aggressive approach? Thanks as always for the thoughtful insight.
Keith Law: I don’t have a good answer for (2). For (1), it probably depends on the player. Swing choices and pitch recognition are different skills that have different underlying features – visual recognition/decision-making versus hand-eye coordination. I imagine that will differ by player.

Danny: Any reports on Spencer Howard before he got put on the shelf?
Keith Law: Stuff has been very good, again, was told the arm issue was minor.

Julie: Do you see any reason why the Orioles wouldn’t take Rutschman? Seems like a no-brainer, and Mike Elias seems like a reasonable guy. Are there any doubts that he’s the #1 pick?
Keith Law: He’s not the clear 1-1 guy in my mind. He’s the best prospect, but the gap between him and Vaughn is small, and the question for Elias is whether he’d rather have Rutschman + good HS prospect (at pick 42) or Vaughn + better HS prospect because he can cut a better deal with Vaughn at 1.

Brett: Do you believe the top 3 players in the upcoming draft, in whatever order, are Rutschman , Witt, Vaughan? Could Vandy OF Bleday move into the top 3?
Keith Law: I ranked them all here: https://klaw.me/2vrX6tV

Jeff: Sorry buddy, people have a right to refuse vaccines for any reason they choose- personal, private, or religious.
Keith Law: That may be true, pal, but you don’t have a right to refuse vaccines FOR YOUR CHILD, any more than you have a right to deny your child medicine, food, shelter, or other care. Do you want the right to beat your child too?
Keith Law: Also, it’s not even clear you have the right you think you do, except in your own head. Courts have ruled the government can force vaccinations during outbreaks and epidemics.

Fitz: Do you think Vlad Jr. early struggles (ie not seeing anything to hit) could be solved by moving him up from the 5th spot?
Keith Law: I don’t think where a player hits, other than batting in front of the pitcher, has any effect on his performance.

Greg: Any new top 10 buzz since your mock?
Keith Law: Not in the last 72 hours.

Rick: Office door closed with sign that reads “In Webinar – Do Not Disturb”. Actually just my weekly escape aka Klawchat. No question – just a simple thanks!
Keith Law: I’ll write a note to your boss.

Aaron C.: Earlier this year, you wrote that the A’s might have something with Nick Allen if he could get on base more. I *know* it’s silly to get excited about three weeks at Stockton (.356 OBP!), so should I follow up with you in, what, 2020? 2021?
Keith Law: It’s promising but I think double-A is the best test.

Sam: Do you allow your daughter to curse? My younger son has finally learned curse words, and I’m torn on how to react.
Keith Law: I never did much to hide those words from her in songs, but pointed out that some people don’t like those words and she shouldn’t use them (this was years ago). So far, she hasn’t started, but that could change at any time.

Guest: So what are your great American novels? It is tough because we are not talking about best I think but something different
Keith Law: I think Beloved is the best choice – I don’t see how you tell the American story without acknowledging such a massive piece of our history and cultural heritage. I understand why The Great Gatsby is often chosen, but I think it’s too narrow a slice of our past. Absalom, Absalom! does a better job of covering more ground – it’s the history of the American south, told through the rise and fall of one family – although it’s such an arduous read that I think it leaves a lot of people behind. Empire Falls is a dark horse choice for me, and maybe a little too narrow, but the way Russo interweaves the setting of a declining mill town into the lives of his characters makes it a very distinctive American story.

Andrew: What’s the best way to exercise for someone with mental health issues (depression, anxiety)?
Keith Law: There’s no best way. Every doctor or therapist I’ve ever talked to about this has simply said exercise is good. So whatever you can get yourself to do regularly is fine.

Mark: Love the brief guitar shows you do sometimes. I played a bit in high school ages ago and now I’m looking to get back into it. My question is if you’re self-taught, and if so what are some resources online that you’ve used to help yourself learn?
Keith Law: I taught myself in high school with magazines like the old Guitar for the Practicing Musician, then would find tabs on alt.guitar.tab and the like. I use Ultimate-Guitar a lot now (I pay for the pro tabs) but still do a lot by ear.

Eric: What is Sixto Sanchez’ ceiling? When should he be expected to be up; Sept? 2020?
Keith Law: Has to stay healthy for a full season before we think about him coming to the majors. I think it’s #2-3 ceiling in reality despite the huge velocity.

Cade: Austin Riley has been on an insanely hot streak for the past week or two. Have you come around on him as a prospect? What do you think his ultimate upside is?
Keith Law: A hot week or two doesn’t change my opinion of a prospect. He was in the right place on my top 100, with the same strengths (power, defense) and weaknesses (bat speed) today he had two months ago.

John: Does James Karinchak have a chance to be an impact reliever in MLB?
Keith Law: A chance, yes, not a large one. History of wildness and I believe shoulder issues.

Andrew: What’s the difference between Nolan Gorman leading up to the draft last year and Rece Hinds leading up to the draft this year?
Keith Law: Gorman’s power was bigger, and he had hit better the previous summer and fall than Hinds did.

Eric: You subpoenaed me to be here, but I’m just not gonna show up, cause, laws are fake, apparently.
Keith Law: Yep. And an entire party has decided it doesn’t care about laws as long as they can retain power.

Michael: With SSS, it’s amazing how batting averages and ERA’s can change so quickly. Fiers ERA went down by 1.4 in his no hitter. At what point in the season do stats not fluctuate so much off of one start or one week?
Keith Law: It’s gradual, but that is one reason I’ve always said Memorial Day is a good time to start looking at current-season stats in the majors – by then, we can still be in SSS territory, but the daily fluctuations are smaller.

Chris: Cal Quantrill was throwing hard Tuesday but control seemed iffy. Do you see him as a rotation piece long-term?
Keith Law: More interesting as a rotation piece now that he’s 92-96 again. Didn’t think he could start when he was 90-92 like he was last year. Still some concerns – it’s not a high quality FB, breaking ball isn’t great – but now he has a chance.

Joe: Sorry if I missed it, but did you do a write up on Deivi Garcia?
Keith Law: No, that’s in my back pocket till I see some more minor league games. I don’t usually wait this long but I try to avoid blog posts that are too short because of the subscription format.

Eric: Do you understand what Jeter et. al are doing with the Marlins, or are they just destined to last place for the rest of time?
Keith Law: I do understand it, I just don’t entirely agree with it.

Tim: Why was Kyle Hendricks overlooked as a prospect? Purely the radar gun?
Keith Law: That’s a major reason, but it’s not like he had some knockout breaking ball too. He’s an extreme outlier. That’s very fun, but if you figure out a way to identify the next Hendricks among all the minor leaguers throwing in the upper 80s with good control and no plus curveball or slider, please let me know, because I’m not that good.

Chris: I’m sure you’ve answered this before, but do you have a Top 5 for baseball movies? I just saw Major League for the first time and it was…fine? Not even sure it’d be in my Top 5, even though I know so many people love it. Just wondering what yours is!
Keith Law: And it’s aged very poorly. Jake flat-out stalks Lynn, and it’s supposed to be romantic. Sugar is my go-to rec, since so few people have seen it. Pelotero if you’d consider a documentary. I think Eight Men Out is solid. I enjoy Field of Dreams but it’s not much of a baseball movie, and neither is Bull Durham. Most baseball movies get the baseball very wrong, and/or rely on baseball to paper over bad plots.

randplaty: Is Paddack really a #1 or #2 starter? Or is he pitching over his head?
Keith Law: At least a #2.

Matt W: Any recommendations for a good vacation read? Something with a fairly engrossing plot rather than something meandering.
Keith Law: Eh, depends on your tastes, but one of my absolute favorite recent novels is Anthony Doerr’s All The Light We Cannot See.

Texas Bill: Is there definitive proof that MLB is using a “juiced” ball?
Keith Law: There is proof that changes to the physical characteristics to the baseball have contributed to the rise in home runs, yes. Dr. Meredith Wills has also argued it has contributed to the rise in blisters among pitchers.

Steve : What would you do if you are the Mets with Dom Smith? Have him get everyday ABs in AAA and work out a trade? What do you think they can get for him?
Keith Law: I would think you could get a similar player – a young, ready, potential at another position or a back-end starter. I don’t think sending him to triple-A helps his trade value, though.

Erin: Besides McKenzie Gore, which Padres minor leaguer are you most excited about?
Keith Law: Do I have to choose just one? OK, Luis Patino. Or maybe Tirso Ornelas. Xavier Edwards is really intriguing though.

MikeM: Deivi Garcia went 5 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K last night. The strikeouts are there but he seems to have some control issues. I know you saw him in his first AA start this year. Do you think he has the athleticism to gain control or will he always be wild? What is a realistic outcome for him? There is ace upside there with the pure stuff but you can say that about a lot of guys.
Keith Law: Definitely not ace upside there – I like Deivi but that is not ace stuff or size. I also don’t think he’ll always be wild; he wasn’t wild last year, certainly.

Jeff: What type talents are Quin Cotton & Braden Shewmake? Rounds 3-5?
Keith Law: Shewmake more comp/second. Cotton you are spot on.

Minong: I really enjoyed Neil Gaiman’s American Gods, do you read his stuff?
Keith Law: I just finished Good Omens yesterday. American Gods is the best of his novels I’ve read.

Noel: Miguel Amaya has had an interesting year, with a 17% walk rate but a .226 BABIP. Has his early season results changed his future outlook at all?
Keith Law: SSS.

Andy: Rutschman is a switch hitting college catcher, who can field, with power. I’ve never seen him, but this screams Wieters, even without the Orioles conncetion.
Keith Law: He’s a much better receiver today than Wieters was, and we have better data to back that up.

Jeff: Will Brett Baty go out as a 3B? Do you think he stays there long term?
Keith Law: Yes. Probably not?

Fishing with E: I think there were 2 first rounders that didn’t sign last year. Do you expect that again this year?
Keith Law: That was a huge surprise to me, although those two players had several things in common that may have contributed to them not signing. I do not expect a repeat of that.
Keith Law: As in, I don’t think those factors are going to become more common, and teams may shy away from certain HS players to avoid that situation.

Andrew: Shouldn’t players in the final year of their contract (ie Z. Wheeler) be begging to be traded? That way they can’t be offered a QO. Which shows how ridiculous the QO system is. Are you in favor of any type of FA c compensation?
Keith Law: I’d eliminate FA compensation entirely. Of course, I’d eliminate or totally overhaul the draft, too.

Jay: Have you read Early Riser yet? Have you enjoyed Fforde’s non Thursday Next novels?
Keith Law: Own it, haven’t read it, enjoyed Shades of Grey in particular.

Chris Paddack: How would you handle my innings this year?
Keith Law: At some point you’re going to have to shut Paddack down, but I wouldn’t put a number on it now; see how the team’s season progresses and if Paddack shows any signs of fatigue at any point you move aggressively to rest him or end his season.

Jim Leyland Palmer: KLaw, if you were running the Tigers during this draft would you prioritize a guy like Belday (safer, closer to contributing) or Greene (More upside, but more risk and further away)? Our current crop of pitching should be due 2020/2021, would it be wise to line this pick up with that window or is that foolish?
Keith Law: Take the guy you like best.

Dave: You seem far less bullish on Rutschman than other people in the industry. What do you see as his limitations?
Keith Law: Don’t know about other people in the industry, but I know plenty of scouts who agree with me that his hit tool isn’t anywhere near what Vaughn’s is.

Matty K : It looks like Lucas Giolito is really starting to throw the ball better. Much improved k/swing and miss rate. I know you have stayed aboard when everyone else has jumped ship. Is this a result of the mechanical reversions you oft-referenced? (I.e, have you seen enough of a change to justify my excitement as a Sox fan?)
Keith Law: I’m in. Changeup is plus now. Velocity is back to where it was. Also he’s fully healthy this year.
Keith Law: Sorry, plumber is here fixing my dryer vent. Previous owners did everything so cheaply that any little problem becomes a large one (in this case, they cut the hole for the exhaust vent in the wrong place, so it was more than half obstructed by part of the wall dropping down into the pipe).

Pat D: I was watching the news yesterday and hearing a 12-year old say about how he was prepared to grab a metal baseball bat and not go down without a fight while some people were shooting up his school. And all I could think to myself was, “How fucking sad is it that a 12-year old kid even has to CONSIDER that?” Am I wrong?
Keith Law: You are not wrong, not at all.

John: Any chance at this point that Abrams makes it to the Reds at 7?
Keith Law: Extremely low, but I could never say zero. What hurts is that I’m not hearing any teams above there exploring under-slot deals – highest team I’ve heard doing that is Texas at 8.

bill wilhelm fan: projection for Logan Davidson to get selected?
Keith Law: Back half of the first round.

Eric: Saying the OK sign isn’t now the white nationalist movement’s symbol is like saying the swastika is just a Hindu symbol.
Keith Law: Good analogy.

Jeff: How much does a pre draft workout with a team mean in the weeks leading up to the draft? Does that mean serious interest? Is there a cutoff of say players we like in top 5 rounds or is it players an area scouts like etc. Thanks!
Keith Law: I wouldn’t read too much into that, but it does help teams narrow decisions.

Andy: Re Cubs contacting writers: How often are you confronted by a parent or club about your opinions?
Keith Law: Parents very rarely. Clubs sure, from time to time, but nobody has threatened me (in any sense of the word) in years.

Dave.: Is Yodan Alvarez similar to AJ Reed?
Keith Law: I think he’s better than Reed, but you have hit on a couple of my concerns – things that held Reed back that may also hold back YA.

Daniel: Would you say its counterproductive to trade relevant prospects for JD Davis and then not play him because you are overpaying the terrible Todd Frazier?
Keith Law: I really didn’t understand their trades this offseason. They created a lot of redundancy they didn’t need. That said, their issue now is playing the right guys – the trades are made, you can’t undo them – so the argument to play Davis isn’t that you gave up value for him but, as you said, that he can’t be worse than Frazier.

Chris J: Keith, clearly every player is an individual and no 2 are perfectly alike. With that said, some Os fans are leery of taking Rutschman first overall due to Weiters never really having hit the ceiling he displayed as a prospect. Is there something in the scouting, skillset, or other component of the process to indicate he could be more Posey and less Weiters? Thank you.
Keith Law: I’ll add to what I said above – not only is Rutschman a better defender, but I think we know he’s a better defender, and the industry also knows him as a person better because (I think) his grandfather played and then helped teach him to be a great defensive catcher from when he was pretty young.

Rick: C Randolph, M Moniak, A Haseley. We’ve gone from “pour bleach in my eyes” to “what were they thinking” to “we’ll he’s not terrible”. At what point do the Phils revamp their Amateur Scouting Dept??
Keith Law: Their double-A outfield is three first-rounders, all top ten picks, all off to brutal starts this year. I don’t like talking about revamping departments – that’s talking about scouts’ jobs – but I do think a different philosophy in the first round is required.

DH: Can Cavan Biggio be an every day 2B in Toronto this year?
Keith Law: No.

Jordan: Outside of a lack of power, what does Corbin Carroll need to improve on the most?
Keith Law: I’m not sure he really has a lack of power – he’s not Nick Madrigal. He’s pretty strong. He’s just 5’10”. So I guess he needs to get taller?

Sunny: How do you stay positive with the constant barrage of “world ending” news (animal extinction, climate change)?
Keith Law: I have always been fortunate in my ability to compartmentalize enough so that I’m aware of that shit but still able to get out of bed in the morning and look forward to good things each day. We could all live in existential dread, all the time, but it’s not exactly the quality of life to which I aspire.

Erin: Any thoughts on Brady McConnell? His numbers look good this year but haven’t heard much about him since he was a projected first rounder a couple years ago
Keith Law: He’s hit enough the last two months or so to put himself into the top two rounds for sure, maybe even late first. I have some questions about the hit tool and ability to stay at short, but he’s a really good athlete and maybe in the second round you roll the dice on that?

Ker Pal: Nate Pearson – a guy, a GUY, or a GUY!!!
Keith Law: Between the latter two. He’s been on my top 100 the last two years because there’s potential for a Syndergaard-like arsenal.

Jonathan: Has Alex Faedo turned a corner? Can’t find current scouting reports on him, but he’s pitching well through six starts in AA.
Keith Law: SSS. Stuff is the same.

Tim: Kris Bubic! SSS and a college guy in the Sally Lg. But has been impressive. Arrow up, or inconclusive till he gets to a more appropriate challenge?
Keith Law: Doesn’t belong there. Nothing negative, just can’t read anything into a Pac 12 guy going to low-A.

Kris: Missed the last chat to say that I’m absolutely pissed that I didn’t get to meet you in Morgantown, considering I currently live there. I’ll tell you now what I would’ve told you then. Thanks for everything. Although politically I’m more conservative, with your chats I’ve became more open minded to new ideas and ways to view policy. I genuinely thank you for that. I also greatly appreciate your baseball coverage. I hope you enjoyed Morgantown and everyone was hospitable.
Keith Law: That’s all very kind of you. Don’t feel too bad, though – I was in Morgantown for all of about four hours, just there for the game and then back to Pittsburgh.

DH: Kelenic or Gorman? It seems like Gorman has a higher ceiling if he can get to that power but Kelenic’s ceiling isn’t far behind and his floor seems so much higher?
Keith Law: Kelenic. Better hit, defense, run tools. May stay in CF.

Tom C: With Addison Russell and Tyreek Hill being the latest DV players in the news, it’s brought the usual assortment of fanboys/fantasy players with their usual “so, are they NOT supposed to be able to work now” takes. Which I always find amazing because if they were Addison the truck driver or Tyreek the CPA, literally none of them would give a crap whether those guys worked again. But hey, don’t ruin my entertainment bro.
Keith Law: Every damn time. Why are they so concerned with that player’s “right” to work? Oh, right, because laundry.

Dallas: White Sox have drafted Walker (18 2nd), Burger (17 1st), Sheets (17 2nd), Gonzalez (17 3rd), and Collins (16 1st) who all seem like potential 1B/DH (though I’m not entirely sure). Is Vaughn such a good bat that they would continue down this same path? Rutschman seems like an obvious selection for them if available but I question Vaughn.
Keith Law: I’ve also heard them with Abrams, because Kenny Williams likes him. (That’s the story, at least.) I’d much rather take Vaughn given his history. Also, although you’re correct on their last bunch of picks, I don’t think Collins and Sheets matter, and Gonzalez is definitely an outfielder.

Joe: Fearless prediction: if/when the banned Cubs fan’s name becomes public, it’ll take less than 20 seconds of viewing his Facebook/Twitter profiles to understand exactly why the Cubs are so sure it was a racist gesture.
Keith Law: Now there’s a story on Twitter (just since I started this chat) that he wasn’t racist, so who the hell knows. Here’s another suggestion, though: maybe don’t be a dumbass on live TV? Like, just wave and smile?

JP: Not a fan of horror or gratuitous violence, but do you avoid historical violence in TV/movies, such as war or slavery?
Keith Law: War, no. Slavery, sometimes. I never saw 12 Years a Slave for that reason.

Jonathan: What’s good on TV/Netflix these days? Looking for a show to watch this summer when I finally grab some free time.
Keith Law: Russian Doll is the last new show I binged.

BK : Does Jordyn Adams become a top 15 by seasons end you think?
Keith Law: Definitely not.

dmitry: BTW, agree with your answer to the exercise question. As a sports physical therapist who deals with anxious NYers, my best answer to which kind is “whatever has the best chance of getting you there”!
Keith Law: Good! Love to hear from experts. I talk mental health stuff because people ask, but ultimately I’m not an expert, just someone who is going through it myself and asks a lot of questions.

Fred: The Yordan take is not a good look for you.
Keith Law: Well, I ain’t good looking, but I’m someone’s child.

wrburgess: When players like Liberatore and Jhon Torres are held back in Spring, does that concern you or is it just a routine process?
Keith Law: No concerns unless we have definite word of something amiss.

Jonathan: Dream retirement spot?
Keith Law: Italy.

Geordy: I’m intrigued by the tools of Maurice Hampton, have you heard any word on his signability with his LSU dual-sport commitment?
Keith Law: I’ve heard he wants to play baseball. After the Murray fiasco, that’s the biggest question of all.

Kirk: I’ve seen you mention overhauling the draft a few places recently now. So…bulletpoints, 10,000 foot view, how would you do that?
Keith Law: I’m going to have to make that a column at some point soon because it’s too long to write anywhere else.

DH: I don’t think Mateo would move Semien off short so is there a path for Mateo? 2B over Profar? OF?
Keith Law: Centerfield.

Dr. Bob: RE: the OK/White Power sign. I had never heard of this when the Wrigley story came out. So I googled it, read a couple of article, and then I knew. Research. With the internet, it’s really easy to do now. Clark should try it sometime.
Keith Law: I don’t know why people are arguing so hard *against* the idea that there could be new ways to express hate.
Keith Law: Like, have we learned nothing the last three years

Mac: I’m sorry but I can’t wrap my head around a power switch hitting plus defensive catcher and an undersized R/R first base only being evaluated that closely. I just can’t see it
Keith Law: What if the first baseman projects to regularly post .400+ OBPs but the catcher might be in the low .300s? There are obviously thresholds where the two are close or even flipped.

Robert: Do you think part of the consternation that built up with Giolito is due to the fact he has been a prospect for so long? Hard to believe he is just 24!
Keith Law: Drafted at 17, very famous even before then, included in a high-profile trade … lot of factors going into people wanting to give up on a player.

Reader from 2015: Have you read “The Three Body Problem” trilogy yet? If you dig existentialism, it re-defines the idea.
Keith Law: Read the first book, enjoyed it but didn’t feel driven to go to book two.

James: Non-zero chance we see Brendan McKay in the majors this season?
Keith Law: Non-zero but below 5%.

Pat: Houston took Correa way below slot in 2012, then took McCullers at like 41. Would Vaughn be the only option for the O’s if they went the underslot route? Could anyone else like Abrams get in the discussion?
Keith Law: Sure. Abrams, Greene. If Carroll were 6’2″ he’d be a candidate.

Iris: I am conflicted….if it is a white nationalist symbol, why does President Obama still flash the okay sign so often?
Keith Law: I know this is very hard to believe, but sometimes words and gestures mean different things depending on who’s using them or in what context.

Cyril: Not a question but your comment in last week’s chat about Marvel characters solving disputes by throwing one another into buildings made me laugh out loud.
Keith Law: It was my #1 complaint about the Spider-verse movie. Like, guys, it’s a cartoon. You can make the characters do literally *anything* … and they just swing from their spidey-silk and throw each other into buildings!

Matt: Have you heard much about the Padres’ decision to convert Javier Guerra to a RP? When was the last time this guy actually pitched!?
Keith Law: I don’t think he had ever pitched before instructs. Eric Longenhagen has seen him twice now – he’s your best source on that.

Eric: My 3-year-old son is starting preschool in a few weeks. Any tips for getting him prepared so it’s a smooth transition?
Keith Law: I wish I did have good advice. My daughter was all in – the day we dropped her off she ran right in to play with the other kids and introduced herself. She is the opposite of me in so many of the best ways.

Will: Thanks for the update on Bleday & the other #VandyBoys prospects. Any thoughts on Phillip Clarke? He’s another draft-eligible sophomore.
Keith Law: Given that he’s a Vandy sophomore, I didn’t think he was good enough to be drafted (and signable) this year. I could be way off but that was my take.

Kirk: when you put Balazovic on your near miss list, you caught a lot of Twins fans off guard. Stat line looks good so far – still see the same ceiling so far?
Keith Law: Yep, no change.

Hufflepuff: Sam Huff is a 21 year old catcher repeating at low-A in the Sally League. He’s also got 15 home runs this year, and is putting up video game numbers for Hickory. Is it premature to start mentally sliding him up a few rungs on the Rangers prospect rankings list?
Keith Law: Yes, too old for the level.

Andy: Wasn’t Brandon McIlwain supposed to be a surefire first round pick this year?
Keith Law: No, definitely not. Just a name to watch now that he was finally supposed to play regularly (before he got hurt).

Jason: Cristian Pache’s slash line is .319/.366/.540; since all I can do is scout the stat line, should I be concerned about his low walk rate, or is his average so high that you wouldn’t expect him to be walking more?
Keith Law: I doubt he’ll ever be a high-walk guy. I think he’ll hit for enough average, with 20+ homer power, and absolutely elite defense.

Debo: Hi Keith. I am relocating to Wilmington for work. Many of my future colleagues are advising against the Delaware public school system. What was your approach when moving to area? Thanks.
Keith Law: It’s a little district-by-district. There are also a lot of charter schools here, some very good (and some terrible), if you don’t have a philosophical objection to them. And there are many private schools with long histories, some of which are focused on specific areas (e.g., I know of one that’s known as a good sportsball school). Feel free to hit me up outside the chat if this looks like it’s happening.

Josh: I have written ESPN my Plus subscription walks the moment you do. Thanks for all of the consistently high quality work.
Keith Law: You’re welcome – and thank you for that, especially since I’m in the last year of my deal.

JJ: Prospects to watch at a Yardgoats game? Is Phil Nevin’s kid a guy?
Keith Law: He is a guy. Also, what a great ballpark.

Josh: Curious what newspaper(s) you subscribe to, if any?
Keith Law: Digital only: Washington Post, New Yorker.

Jeff: Why does Brett Baty’s age come up a lot more than Bobby Witt Jr.? Is the 6 months that big or is it more the level of talent top 5 vs. mid-late 1st?
Keith Law: Sliding scale – your actual age (probably the delta between your age and the average) goes into the formula. The more days away from the mean you are, the more you get dinged.
Keith Law: Or I guess raised if you’re young.
Keith Law: OK, I went long today to make up for the lost time earlier. It’s been a series of house calamities this week but at least now I can do laundry again. Thank you for your patience and for all of your questions this week. I’m sorry I couldn’t get to more. I will chat again next week and hope to resume the Periscope chats very soon since the draft is just around the corner.

The Player of Games.

As usual, I think one of you recommended Iain Banks’ Culture novels to me, and in particular recommended The Player of Games ($2.99 on Kindle right now), for what I would say is a rather obvious reason: The main character is a board gamer, although Banks simply refers to these as “games,” in a utopian society where games are taken rather seriously and the main character is considered one of the best game players in the world. It’s one of the more unusual concepts for a novel I’ve seen in a while, although the execution is limited in a few ways, including the opacity of that main character.

Jernau Morat Gurgeh is the player from the book’s title, living on the orbital station Chiark, where he dominates nearly all game-play, often attempting to challenge himself by breaking scoring records or achieving perfect scores because he so seldom loses. He’s given an opportunity in one game to gain an illicit advantage, which leads to an extortion attempt that puts him in the clutches of a government mission to the Empire of Azad, a vicious, despotic regime where a complex game, also called Azad, determines everything from social status to the identity of the next Emperor. Gurgeh is supposed to simply go and play the game as a guest, but studies and learns the game well enough to play competitively, which upsets the delicate hierarchy on Azad and helps create a broader conflict that spins beyond Gurgeh’s control.

The story does move incredibly well, even through periods of elliptical descriptions of game play, as Banks seems to have had a good knack for pacing (although it would have been great if he’d had a similar knack for chapter breaks). One problem he dances around, not entirely successfully, is the game of Azad itself. He didn’t actually make up a game, which would itself be as massive a task as writing a novel, but endeavors to describe the game’s components, mechanics, and strategy without ever telling us what the game is. (Maybe he invented the game in his head, but chose not to get too specific in the book, which would probably be smart because people would nitpick the game to death … people like me, I suppose.) On the other hand, the lack of specifics about the game made it hard for me to envision what was happening or to follow when Gurgeh pulled off strategic master strokes to win games he was supposed to lose or stage a massive comeback against multiple opponents working in concert to eliminate him – the latter of which reminded me at least a little bit of the strategy in the game Diplomacy.

The second issue that I had with the book was Gurgeh himself, who is as vague as the game he’s playing. He’s not two-dimensional, as Banks does try to get into the personality and ego of someone who is at the top of his field, used to winning, in search of challenges, and perhaps unable to see when he’s being played. However, he’s also drawn without much detail beyond his gamer persona – Banks gives us a very good idea of who Gurgeh is while playing Azad, or thinking about between sessions, but very little sense of his character beyond the game. The book hasn’t been adapted for TV or film – depicting Azad the game would be difficult, and I would actually try to completely rewrite the game play rather than convert Banks’ framework to the screen – but if it were, Gurgeh would need more depth to his personality beyond the games. He’s probably a bit of a conceited ass, which just barely pokes through the surface in the game (such as when he talks to the drone that accompanies him to Azad), but one who’s enjoyable to watch.

Where The Player of Games does succeed is in the crafting of the overall story of how the Culture wants to interact with Azad, which doesn’t get a full explanation until the very last page of the epilogue. It’s a game within the novel, Banks playing with the reader’s expectations by revealing bits of information over a long period before tying everything together at the end. That made it a fun read even with my criticisms of the main character and the game at the heart of the story – enough so that I’ll probably check out something else in the Culture series, since I don’t think Gurgeh recurs in any other novel.

Next up: I’m just about done with Neil Gaiman and Terry Pratchett’s Good Omens.

Music update, April 2019.

I’m not sure why April was so light on new music, especially since I’ve already started a new playlist for May and have a half-dozen songs on it (including “Alligator,” the new single from Of Monsters & Men). April did bring the debut album from Jade Bird, whom I’ve featured on many past playlists. I figured it was better to just wrap this one up now and let the May playlist be longer. You can access the Spotify playlist here if you can’t see the widget below.

Hatchie – Stay With Me. The Australian singer-songwriter Hatchie, whose dreamy indie-pop songs have been all over my playlists for a year and a half now, will release her debut album Keepsake on June 21st.

Ten Fé – Waterfalls. Yep, it’s a cover of the TLC song, which I don’t even particularly like, but this version is another creature entirely.

Hot Chip – Hungry Child. The English electronic/indie stalwarts will put out their seventh album, A Bath Full of Ecstasy, on June 21st. It’s their first album produced entirely by people outside of the band members themselves.

Working Men’s Club – Bad Blood. If I played this for you and told you it was a lost British New Wave track from 1983, would you have any reason to doubt me?

Tame Impala – Borderline. This might be my favorite song by Kevin Parker since “Solitude is Bliss,” in part because it’s so different from the band’s signature sound, with a heavy ’70s soul vibe.

Broken Social Scene – Can’t Find My Heart. This song rocks much harder than most of the Broken Social Scene songs I’ve heard before – at least, it’s not the sound I expect from this eclectic Canadian outfit.

Pharlee – Darkest Hour. I’ve criticized the derivative sound of Greta van Fleet a few times here and on Twitter, but if you like their extremely Led Zeppelin thing, I have a few new songs to recommend, starting with this bluesy psychedelic rocker from a new San Diego group helmed by Macarena Rivera.

Feeder – Fear of Flying. Yes, the same Feeder who had a modest (and slightly annoying) hit in 1997 with “High,” now a duo who announced that their tenth album, Tallulah, will drop in August. There’s no resemblance to their big hit on this driving, melodic rocker.

Ride – Future Love. Shoegaze icons Ride, now fully embracing their comeback two decades after their brief heyday, have recorded … a Britpop song? This has to be the most upbeat track the Oxonians have ever released, the first single from their upcoming album This Is Not a Safe Place, which is due out on August 16th.

Port Noir – Champagne. Port Noir’s label calls them “post-metal” but I just think of them as melodic hard rock, not really metal, with some progressive elements as well.

King Gizzard & The Lizard Wizard – The Cruel Millennial. Another recommendation if you like Led Zeppelin or other blues-heavy classic rock acts; the prolific Australian band just released their fourteenth album in eight years (!), Fishing for Fishes, which is a little inconsistent but has a few real uptempo, blues/jam tracks like this one and “Boogieman Sam.”

Band Of Skulls – Gold. I was hoping for more rock sounds on Band of Skulls’ new album, Love Is All You Love, but it’s a generally downtempo, mellower album than my favorite of their records, 2014’s Himalayan, with the closer “Gold” one of the heavier tracks on the record.

Helms Alee – Spider Jar. The intro to this song reminds me so much of the start of “Prime Cut” from Prong’s 1990 record Beg to Differ, although this song veers in a more progressive direction rather than the lean post-hardcore style of that earlier song. The Seattle band’s latest album, released two weeks ago, is called Noctiluca, which also happens to be the name of the board game I’m reviewing this week for Paste.

Diamond Head – Death by Design. These NWOBHM icons will release their eighth studio album, their second with new lead singer Rasmus Bom Anderson, on May 24th, and their sound really doesn’t seem to have changed that substantially from their influential if still obscure debut album Lightning to the Nations.

Stick to baseball, 5/5/19.

I had two ESPN+ posts last week, my ranking of the top 50 prospects in this year’s draft class and a scouting blog post covering a half-dozen top prep players (five of them on the top 50). My first mock draft of 2019 goes up on Monday. I held a Klawchat on Thursday.

I sent out the latest edition of my free email newsletter on Friday as well. I’ve been trying to time those to when I’ve got actual content to tell you all about, especially baseball things.

And now, the links…

Bad Blood.

Theranos was one of the hottest tech startups of the last fifteen years, at least in terms of the breathless coverage afforded to the company’s putative blood-testing technology and young founder and CEO, Elizabeth Holmes. As you know by now, the entire thing was a giant fraud: the technology never worked, the company ducked or lied to regulators, and Holmes in particular lied to the press and investors who plowed a few hundred million dollars into the company before it collapsed. That implosion came about thanks to a few whistleblowers from inside the firm and the diligent reporting of Wall Street Journal journalist John Carreyrou, who tells the entire history of the scam in his book Bad Blood. The book is thorough, gripping, and infuriating: how did one inexperienced college dropout manage to con so many ostensibly intelligent people into believing her bullshit?

Theranos’s claim was that they could run over a hundred tests on just a single drop of blood drawn by a fingerstick by using a relatively minuscule device, first one called the Edison and later one called the miniLab, that could live in a doctor’s office, a pharmacy clinic, or even a patient’s home. This included routine tests like those for blood cholesterol levels as well as more complex tests that would ordinarily require a lot more blood, which would have to be drawn from a vein. None of this ever worked, and Theranos hid the fraud by taking blood samples back to its headquarters and running the samples on larger machines made by Siemens, all the while making increasingly grandiose claims about its technology, forging nine-figure partnerships with Walgreens and Safeway, and continuing to solicit investments at valuations that eventually crossed $5 billion, making Holmes a paper billionaire.

The media coverage of Theranos in general and Holmes in particular was willfully credulous, none more so than the Fortune cover story “This CEO’s Out for Blood,” a fawning profile that bought all of Holmes’ lies wholesale with what appears to be no attempt to independently validate any of her claims. (The writer, Roger Parloff, eventually admitted he’d been duped.) Holmes appears to have had a strategy for executing this con by co-opting the reputations of powerful, older men: she managed to pack her board with major political figures, including George Schultz and Gen. James Mattis, who all tended to be old white men with zero scientific or technical background, but whose presence carried a lot of weight with the media. She also hired attorney David Boies, eventually giving him shares in the company and a board seat, to stage scorched-earth attacks on anyone who dared criticize the company, which included intimidating former employees who might reveal that Theranos’ technology didn’t work. She even landed a spot as an Ambassador for Global Entrepreneurship for the Obama Administration, only stepping down months after the fraud was revealed.

Carreyrou didn’t buy it, and he didn’t back down, all of which shows in his WSJ articles that dismantled the company’s house of lies and again shows in Bad Blood, which is meticulous in reconstructing the genesis and perpetuation of the fraud, with information gleaned from over 150 interviews with employees and others close to Theranos. He particularly benefited from information from Tyler Schultz, George Schultz’s grandson and a Theranos employee for about a year, who realized that Theranos’ technology didn’t work and that they weren’t properly verifying their results (but were still making the same claims of accuracy to the public), and who reported the company to regulators despite intense pressure and outright threats from Theranos, its lawyers, and his own family. (Schultz, who will turn 99 later this year, was a true believer in Theranos and in Holmes until well after the fraud was made public.) Bad Blood is full of details of internal interactions from Theranos that depict Holmes and COO Ramesh “Sunny” Balwani as vindictive, paranoid bullies who didn’t care that the technology didn’t work, or simply refused to accept that it didn’t, and thought they could steamroll anyone who tried to get in their way – and for about a decade, it worked.

The overwhelming sense Bad Blood gave me is that so very many of the people involved in the scam belong in jail. Holmes and Balwani, who was also her boyfriend when she hired him, come across as sociopaths who relentlessly bullied employees and the media; both are still facing criminal charges, while Holmes settled SEC fraud charges while Balwani is fighting them. They had many allies in their scheme, from Boies (whose behavior seems unethical, at least) to the various marketing and PR flacks inside and outside Theranos who helped perpetuate the con. Does Chiat Day, the major advertising agency Theranos hired to build its image, bear any responsibility for helping disseminate untruths about the company? What about Theranos’ marketing employees or in-house attorneys, the former repeating the lies Holmes and Balwani told them, the latter using dubious tactics to intimidate former employees into signing agreements against their own interests? If Holmes and Balwani actually serve jail time – I’m skeptical, but there’s still a nonzero chance of that – it may deter some future mountebanks, but the biggest lesson of Bad Blood seems to be how many people happily went along with the scheme because they thought Theranos was going to make them rich, and because there was little direct cost to them. Patients could have died from errant medical directions that came from Theranos’ inaccurate test results, yet just about every person involved in promulgating the swindle walked away with nothing worse than a bad name on their resumes.

Carreyrou raises the most salient point that investors and reporters missed during Theranos’ days as a high-flying simurgh: the venture capital firms backing Theranos focused on high tech, but not on biotech or medical devices. The VCs with expertise in medical investments were absent. Carreyrou argues that that should have set off alarm bells for other investors or for reporters racing to laud the company or its female founder/CEO, who benefited from the media’s desire to find a rare woman among Silicon Valley leaders, from her photogenic looks, and from her overt attempts to channel Steve Jobs (which come off as delusionally creepy in the book). Con artists will never lack for marks, but when the people who would ordinarily be most interested in backing a venture head in the other direction, it should serve as at least a prompt to ask more probing questions before putting the CEO on your magazine’s cover.

Next up: I’m preparing for the upcoming amazon series by reading Terry Pratchett & Neil Gaiman’s novel Good Omens.